It Makes No Difference

Lots of post-game chatter suggesting the Oilers rode lack of attention to detail and bad luck to a 7-2 loss in northern California last night. I think the problem is a little more basic. Just as Doug Flynn, Jim Wohlford and Dan Driessen infiltrated the Montreal Expos team that won 90 games in 1980, so too the presence of lesser lights is a massive drag on Connor McDavid. It’s hard to soar as eagles when you’re surrounded by turkeys. Edmonton lost every five-minute segment in that game, even when down by a mile. The Sharks were having fun all night long.

There was luck involved, you can make a case (I will not) that’s a game they were going to lose no matter, reminding me of the Casey Stengel quote. Ol’ Casey used to say there are 50 games you’re going to win for various reasons (opponent starts a rookie, their great SS makes three errors, etc), 50 games you’re going to lose no matter what (you start a rookie, your SS makes three errors). It’s what you do in the other 54 (Stengel’s era) that tell you if you’ve won the pennant. In hockey terms, that’s 25/25/32. There’s a case to be made for last night’s game fitting the description, but bottom line for me is Edmonton simply doesn’t consistently compete against many NHL teams based on overall talent.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton is going to bring it all season long. Proud to be part of a lineup that is ready to cover the coming year. Outstanding coverage from a large group, including Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis, Lowetide, Minnia Feng and Pat McLean. If you haven’t subscribed yet, now’s your chance. Outstanding offer is here.

  • New Lowetide: Oilers midseason report card, brought to you by the letter ‘F’
  • New Jonathan Willis: Unlikely scorer Jujhar Khaira has forced his way up the Oilers’ lineup on merit.
  • New Black Dog Pat: There’s no in-season balancing for the Oilers
  • New Lowetide: Oilers No. 10 prospect Winter 2018: Dylan Wells.
  • New Jonathan Willis: The Oilers have a shoddy roster and when they’re bad, they’re really bad.
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: From 2 to 98, Oilers share the stories behind their jersey numbers.
  • New Jonathan Willis: Edmonton’s collection of prospect defencemen gives the team options now, in the future and in trade talks
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 9 prospect Winter 2018: Joel Persson.
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 8 prospect Winter 2018: Kirill Maksimov.
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 7 prospect Winter 2018: Caleb Jones
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 6 Prospect winter 2018: Cooper Marody
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 5 Prospect winter 2018: Ethan Bear.
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 4 Prospect winter 2018: Ryan McLeod.
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 3 Prospect winter 2018: Tyler Benson.
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 2 Prospect winter 2018: Kailer Yamamoto.
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 1 Prospect winter 2018: Evan Bouchard.

OILERS AFTER 43

  • Oilers in 2015: 17-23-3, 37 points; goal differential -23
  • Oilers in 2016: 21-15-7, 49 points; goal differential +3
  • Oilers in 2017: 18-22-3, 39 points; goal differential -24
  • Oilers in 2018: 20-20-3, 43 points; goal differential -11

The goal differential took a beating and the Oilers remain three full wins shy of the playoff McDavid group. We might see some forwards shuffled in the next day or so, if only a recall of Marody and a demotion of Gambardella. Not enough pop in the lineup.

OILERS IN JANUARY

  • Oilers in January 2016: 2-2-0, four points; goal differential -1
  • Oilers in January 2017: 2-2-0, four points; goal differential -1
  • Oilers in January 2018: 1-3-0, two points; goal differential -11
  • Oilers in January 2019: 2-2-0, four points; goal differential -4

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM JANUARY

  • On the road to: ArizonaLos AngelesAnaheim, San Jose (Expected 2-2-0) (Actual 2-2-0)
  • At home to: Florida, Arizona, Buffalo (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: Vancouver (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Calgary, Carolina, Detroit (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 4-5-2, 10 points in 11 games
  • Current results: 2-2-0, four points in four games

The first four games went according to Hoyle, and now we come to an area of the schedule where I confess to be less than convinced about the group. If I was a believer, these projections would read something like 4-1-2. Alas, I am predicting 2-3-2. This is it, ladies and men. If this Oilers team can grab nine or ten points from the rest of the month, they’ll be in the race.

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

  • Gravel-Petrovic went 4-3 in 3:52, 2-2 shots, no goals and 1-0 HDSC. I thought Petrovic did a helluva job tackling Sorensen, but the referee threw a flag and it as a penalty shot.
  • Gravel-Larsson went 0-5 in 5:40, 0-4 in shots, no goals. What a crazy night.
  • Nurse-Russell went 5-12 in 11:42, 3-5 shots, 0-1 goals and 1-2 HDSC. Nurse had his issues, Russell had a tough game doing the swim.
  • Jones-Russell went 3-2 in 2:46, 2-2 shots, 0-1 goals and both men looked very poor on the goal against.
  • Jones-Larsson went 5-19 in 13:36, 2-9 shots, 0-2 goals and 1-1 HDSC. Both men were chasing but they also had some terrible luck. Shiza happens.
  • Cam Talbot stopped 13 of 17, .765. Mikko Koskinen stopped 16 of 19, .842. Neither man can be blamed, but neither man can be given credit for making a difference.
  • NaturalStatTrick and NHL.com.

FORWARDS, LAST NIGHT

  • Spooner-Brodziak-Kassian were 6-6 in 6:07, 4-6 shots, 0-1 goals and 2-3 HDSC. Brodziak and Kassian were noticeable on the PK.
  • Draisaitl-McDavid-Chiasson went 6-8 in 8:11, 2-8 shots, 0-3 goals and 2-5 HDSC. Hitchcock said it after the game, when your best players and pulling the puck out of their own net thrice you’re going to have a helluva time winning the game. Rattie was 5:09 with Leon.
  • Lucic-Nuge-Puljujarvi were 5-8 in 12:43, 4-5 shots, 1-0 goals and 1-3 HDSC. Nice to see all three men get points, I suspect we’ll see this line on Thursday.
  • Khaira-McDavid-Kassian were 1-6 in 2:46, Khaira and the captain 1-18 in 6:34. I have no words. That’s impossible. Seriously. Connor McDavid 1-18 Corsi events is as rare as Aurora noise reaching the human ear.

HARD TARGET SEARCH

It’s very clear now, the Edmonton Oilers are going balls out to make the playoffs this spring. That’s going to mean at least one major trade and we might see a massive, franchise-altering deal depending on how things rhyme. Will the Oilers land on the good side of the next trade by Peter Chiarelli?

I mentioned in yesterday’s blog the Oilers “assets out” list probably included the 2019 first-round pick, Jesse Puljujarvi, Jujhar Khaira, Matt Benning and Zack Kassian. The top of my list was confirmed yesterday, so let’s spend some time shopping for return today.

  • RW Brendan Gallagher, Montreal Canadiens. He’s on pace for another 30-goal season and would bring forechecking ability and gritty play. I imagine the Habs might be interesting in the first-round pick, and Jesse Puljujarvi may also be in play based on recent reports about his being available.
  • RW Mark Stone, Ottawa Senators. The Sens would have to retain like madmen and take on someone like Spooner, and I imagine someone would have a better offer for Ottawa. Edmonton could acquire Stone soon and then deal him at the deadline if they’re out the playoff race, although that’s a dangerous game with this management group.
  • LW Mike Hoffman, Florida Panthers. He has a limited NMC, uncertain if Edmonton is on his no-trade list. He would be an ideal addition on McDavid’s portside.
  • LC Brayden Schenn, St. Louis Blues. He has this and next year at just over $5 million, Jesse Puljujarvi has been mentioned as a player of interest in Missouri. I don’t know that a first-round pick is of interest and am certain other teams would have more attractive packages to offer.

Any other names? Gallagher is the first one I thought of, I’ll have a few more for you tomorrow.

CURRENT OILERS ROSTER

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

276 Responses to "It Makes No Difference"

« Older Comments
  1. Melman says:

    not only was the Manning for Drake a dumb trade on player for player and extra year of salary cap, it also removed one of the team’s non-core players that may have had a modicum of appeal to an opposing team in a trade.

    Serious question: Are there other’s who check TSN every 3 or 4 hours hoping for the “Oilers fire Pete” headline, or is that just me?

  2. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Jethro Tull:
    The difference between the well run teams and the badly run teams isn’t that “good teams don’t do this” or “only desperate teams do that” is that the well run teams know exactly when to do this or not do that.

    We have proof that good teams do indeed trade their first rounders.They do indeed trade their prospects.

    The problem with “stand pat” as not just a course of action, but as a philosophy is that it can never be proven wrong.I mean, when is preaching patience ever bad advice?But if the Oilers, for instance, stand pat, then the situation doesn’t improve it will be blamed on a miriad of things, like bad GMing, poor play, salary cap issues, etc.Never inaction though. The plan was right, it would have worked, right?And by the time we find that out, the window for when a change was possible has firmly shut and the only choices left to you are to prepare three envelopes. (Old meme here)

    Imagine a company that only posted a profit once in the last ten years.At the AGM, “there’s a plan that will reveal itself once we start turning profit.Until then, don’t knock the plan.”

    Well put. To me the more established and old the core gets once it’s established the more harmful trading firsts and seconds is (because they have the highest odds of becoming good or better players) if staying competitive is the goal.

    As it stands the Oilers have a few holes, they could make moves to shore up. Given the likelihood of the quality of this coming first rounder and the expansion it is not clear cut it would be a good move.

    I would say to the team play your way out of the fog, our own help is coming off IR, and let them learn to play as a team, for each other. Until they do that one player won’t move the dial enough.

  3. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Wilde:
    Jesse’s up to 1.42/60 since Hitchcock.

    Best news I read all day

  4. Melman says:

    who: Interesting thoughts on primetime.
    What I wonder is, what is the downside to firing him now as opposed to summer? I just don’t see one. Why let him do more damage?
    Brian Burke keeps saying there is no way Chia would purposely damage the long term future of the team to salvage his job in the short term.Are you kidding me?
    The Manning trade is Exhibit A.

    He has been damaging the team for years while he was trying to make it better. Maybe if he goes opposite Pete a la George Costanza he can totally redeem himself!!

  5. Matticus says:

    I hope they don’t trade JP, but this is oilers management so I’m sure they will make a terrible trade

  6. OriginalPouzar says:

    No Yamamoto or Petrovic tomorrow versus FLA.

    I would guess (hope) that Benning is in and not Manning.

  7. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ryan McLeod with an assist on a Bode Wilde PP goal – Owen Tippett with the other assist as the acquisitions continue to pay off.

  8. Richard S.S. says:

    McDavid, Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins, C. Jones, Larsson and a healthy Klefbom are difference makers.
    Chiasson, Nurse and Russell are quality supportive players.
    Everyone else is REPLACEABLE not meeting the above standards.

    Trading picks, and/or prospects, and/or replaceable players for Difference Makers with term should be an Oiler objective – making the Team better is every GM’s job.

    Anyone opposed who doesn’t want a better team cannot be a fan, absolutely not a fan.

  9. drglen says:

    protecting your draft picks is not the same thing as doing nothing.

  10. OriginalPouzar says:

    Condors give up a PP goal just 2 minutes in.

  11. godot10 says:

    Melman:
    not only was the Manning for Drake a dumb trade on player for player and extra year of salary cap, it also removed one of the team’s non-core players that may have had a modicum of appeal to an opposing team in a trade.

    Serious question:Are there other’s who check TSN every 3 or 4 hours hoping for the “Oilers fire Pete” headline, or is that just me?

    Caggiula and Mannings contract both expire after next season. There is not an extra year. Mannings’s is just $750K more. The other difference is Caggiula is only 24, so his contract would be a 1/3rd buyout over two years vs. 2/3rds over two years for Manning, which is the reason Chicago made the deal…Caggiula is much cheaper to buyout with a significantly lower cap impact from the buyout.

  12. JimmyV1965 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Do you know who is going to be in a really good position to sign Hall in the summer of 2020?

    These guys:

    FORWARDS (13 – $43,855,000)2020-21
    Gaudreau, Johnny$6,750,000
    Monahan, Sean “A”$6,375,000
    Neal, James$5,750,000
    Backlund, Mikael “A”$5,350,000
    Lindholm, Elias$4,850,000
    TOTAL$32,200,000

    DEFENSE (7 – $22,494,209)2020-21
    Giordano, Mark “C”$6,750,000
    TOTAL$11,700,000

    If they buy out Neal in June 2020 his Cap hit goes from 5.75 to 1.91

    Hall grew up in Calgary.

    They have their core locked up cheap for a long time.

    They have good young Dmen coming.

    They could afford to pay Hall market value for sure if they don’t “Chiarelli” their roster between then and now.

    Hate the frickin Flames. Not only are they better, their contract situation is amazing. Tkachuk will cost them though. If Nylander gets $7 mill, he’s worth at least $8 mill. Hall signing there would be the ultimate frick you to the team that screwed him over. I’m sure he’ll cost upwards of $10 mill though.

  13. JimmyV1965 says:

    I’m trying to envision the trade talks between the Oil and Hawks for Manning. Chia already set a standard for swapping contracts in the Strome deal. How in the world could he not get the same deal for Manning? Did he even ask? Did Bowman actually balk at such a suggestion? And then Chia relented because Manning is just so good? Boggles the mind.

  14. Wilde says:

    JimmyV1965:
    I’m trying to envision the trade talks between the Oil and Hawks for Manning. Chia already set a standard for swapping contracts in the Strome deal. How in the world could he not get the same deal for Manning? Did he even ask? Did Bowman actually balk at such a suggestion? And then Chia relented because Manning is just so good? Boggles the mind.

    I don’t think he thought Manning was super good, it’s just that he wanted him for so, so long.

    Remember, when he wants a player (and gets anywhere close to closing the deal) he usually gets them. Pretty quickly, because of what he’s willing to do for other managers.

    How long did he want Manning before he got him, even though the deal was almost done the first time he came around? A long time, for Chiarelli.

    I think if you dangled a player PC wanted, then withdrew, later swinging back around after some months you could get a much better haul regardless of what happened in those some months; even if the player has demonstrably lowered their value.

  15. workaroundaccount says:

    I would rather have Trump running the Oilers because although he would probably screw it up just as bad, he at least makes me chuckle from time to time.

  16. OriginalPouzar says:

    Richard S.S.:
    McDavid, Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins, C. Jones, Larsson and a healthy Klefbom are difference makers.
    Chiasson, Nurse and Russell are quality supportive players.
    Everyone else is REPLACEABLE not meeting the above standards.

    Trading picks, and/or prospects, and/or replaceable players for Difference Makers with term should be an Oiler objective – making the Team better is every GM’s job.

    Anyone opposed who doesn’t want a better team cannot be a fan, absolutely not a fan.

    1) the team isn’t in a position to trade prospects or picks for difference makers with term due to cap reasons. They essentially cannot take on any cap in a trade.

    2) Of course a fan will want a “better team” but there are many different ways to build a team and fans can have differing opinions on how to build a “better team”. Personally, I want a team built that is a perennial playoff contender and, no, what your propose, to me, doesn’t make that a more likely result. I prefer patience, keeping the picks/prospects, letting the anchor contracts expire over the next few years while the prospects graduate and provide cheap value – this will lead to cap crunch alleviation and the ability to substantially improve with more material moves.

    This may not “make the team better” in the next year or so.

    I am quite certain I am a fan.

  17. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV1965: Hate the frickin Flames. Not only are they better, their contract situation is amazing. Tkachuk will cost them though. If Nylander gets $7 mill, he’s worth at least $8 mill. Hall signing there would be the ultimate frick you to the team that screwed him over. I’m sure he’ll cost upwards of $10 mill though.

    No doubt that Treliving has proven to be a better contract negotiator than Chiarelli but the flames got super lucky on timing – the Monohan and Gaudreau deals were up and they were re-signed the year before an explosion in RFA contracts – if they wouldn’t have had one more year, they would each be a good $1.5M or so more I would think.

  18. Klima's_Bucket says:

    OriginalPouzar: they were re-signed the year before an explosion in RFA contracts

    Was the explosion set off with Chiarelli’s overpay of Draisaitl?

  19. texmex says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Ironically, chia is responsible for said rfa contract explosion too!!

  20. Jethro Tull says:

    https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwizot-RkuLfAhWLHjQIHVtqCEIQzPwBegQIARAC&url=https%3A%2F%2Fedmontonjournal.com%2Fsports%2Fhockey%2Fnhl%2Fcult-of-hockey%2Fthe-craig-mactavish-interview-part-1-im-not-arguing-that-were-close-were-not&psig=AOvVaw3PJ3ZuK17wq_gXjUe8s3on&ust=1547172848817059

    My goodness, the quotables in here.

    Basically, it’s the same, just 5yrs ago. This is trusting draft and develop to people who can’t. And that’s the plan now?

    “I think in the bottom 15 teams, we’re very competitive.” Classic.

    To affect change, you have to provide stimulus.

  21. workaroundaccount says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    – Bob has old-school Oil connections from the glory years

    Bob Nicholson has been a regular guest on McCown’s show for many years.

    Nicholson has done more interviews with McCown than with any local show/writer since being hired by OEG.

    Agreed on the pro scouting stuff.

    EDM hasn’t had good pro trades since Lowe was GM.

    That’s not hyperbole, its the truth.

    And on 2 or 3 when he was.

  22. Ben says:

    Funny, just last week I was wondering what MacT was up to, hadn’t been particularly present in media over the last couple of years.

    Suddenly, he’s on Hometown Hockey and doing feature interviews with Staples in the Journal.

    GEE I WONDER WHY

  23. OriginalPouzar says:

    Klima’s_Bucket: Was the explosion set off with Chiarelli’s overpay of Draisaitl?

    texmex:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Ironically, chia is responsible for said rfa contract explosion too!!

    Without getting in to the “overpay” discussion, yes, Chiarelli was material in the explosion as he had two elite RFAs to sign (well, McDavid not for a year but the contract was geting done early).

    That doesn’t change my point about the flames being lucky on timing.

  24. Wilde says:

    Ben:
    Suddenly, he’s on Hometown Hockey and doing feature interviews with Staples in the Journal.

    I can’t find a recent Staples interview

  25. Ben says:

    Wilde,

    Oh shit you’re right that one was from a few years back.

    Still, it contains one of the Katz-era-est quotes in Katz-era history: “We’re still a long ways away, but I think in the bottom 15 teams in the league, we’re very competitive.”

    That’s the good stuff!

  26. Bling says:

    Recent slide aside, I’m pretty positive about the team right now.

    1) Chia is going to get fired. No intel, just a feeling. I think he will get judged hard for the Manning and Petrovic trades, which the entire MSM and analytics community laughed at.
    2) Jesse is progressing (hat tip to Wilde; 98 is up to 1.42 EVP/60 under Hitch)
    3) Jones is going to be a fixture for years to come.
    4) The cavalry is real (Yamamoto, Benson, Bouchard, Maksimov) and they are coming soon.

    Gotta resist the temptation to blow things up and/or make a risky trade.

    Hire a good GM and this team is going to fly before long.

  27. --hudson-- says:

    Jethro Tull:
    https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwizot-RkuLfAhWLHjQIHVtqCEIQzPwBegQIARAC&url=https%3A%2F%2Fedmontonjournal.com%2Fsports%2Fhockey%2Fnhl%2Fcult-of-hockey%2Fthe-craig-mactavish-interview-part-1-im-not-arguing-that-were-close-were-not&psig=AOvVaw3PJ3ZuK17wq_gXjUe8s3on&ust=1547172848817059

    My goodness, the quotables in here.

    Basically, it’s the same, just 5yrs ago. This is trusting draft and develop to people who can’t. And that’s the plan now?

    “I think in the bottom 15 teams, we’re very competitive.” Classic.

    To affect change, you have to provide stimulus.

    “MacTavish: Yes, being on the right side of the puck, stopping in the defensive zone, and having been in that coaches room it’s all they ever talk about. We’re a flawed team. I’ll give you that. We are definitely a flawed team because we can’t sustain the O-zone play. We have a hard time sustaining the O-zone play, even with our best players. They are quick attack guys. So it’s either a five star play or it’s a one (shot) and out. We consequently spend a lot of time in our defensive zone because we don’t sustain in the offensive zone. So we’re flawed there. Our defence, I’ve said many times, needs to improve.”

    Oh my that’s a rabbit hole I regret going down. 5 years later it’s still true.

  28. smellyglove says:

    Seriously, what do you guys see in Jesse P.?

    He has one point in his last seven games and he turns 21 in a few months.

  29. flyfish1168 says:

    JimmyV1965: Hate the frickin Flames. Not only are they better, their contract situation is amazing. Tkachuk will cost them though. If Nylander gets $7 mill, he’s worth at least $8 mill. Hall signing there would be the ultimate frick you to the team that screwed him over. I’m sure he’ll cost upwards of $10 mill though.

    I like Hall. I wish he was still with us. But he sure gets hurt a lot.

  30. HT Joe says:

    flyfish1168: I like Hall. I wish he was still with us. But he sure gets hurt a lot.

    If Hall were still with the Oilers and injured 41 games every season, he would still be our most productive winger throughout the course of the entire season.

  31. HT Joe says:

    HT Joe,

    Fun Fact… since the start of McDavid’s NHL career, McDavid has missed more games than Hall.

  32. Ryan says:

    smellyglove:
    Seriously, what do you guys see in Jesse P.?

    He has one point in his last seven games and he turns 21 in a few months.

    I think that the overwhelming possibility is that he’s a dud.

  33. Lowetide says:

    smellyglove:
    Seriously, what do you guys see in Jesse P.?

    He has one point in his last seven games and he turns 21 in a few months.

    Actually, two points in his last seven and 2-2-4 in his last nine games. He is not the ideal No. 4 selection and he may never score anything close to 30, but that giant body with his speed suggest a good coach will find a role for him. And 21 in a few months is a good thing for a hockey player, not a bad thing.

  34. Jethro Tull says:

    Ryan: I think that the overwhelming possibility is that he’s a dud.

    But…..but……we kept the pick. We developed him slowly. We did everything right…..

  35. HT Joe says:

    Ryan: I think that the overwhelming possibility is that he’s a dud.

    This season, he’s been passed by Tyson Jost, Jakob Chychrun, and Sam Girard for points accumulated from his draft class. JP is currently sitting at #13 for points scored from his draft year, but #7 for games played. He looks like he has good defensive instincts, and impresses me with his skating but offence looks like it’s not translating – maybe a strong, well-rounded middle six winger?

    The only certainty is that when the Oilers trade him away, we’ll be (justifiably) disappointed.

  36. HT Joe says:

    Jethro Tull: We developed him slowly.

    Huh… do you think TMac heard the expression “developing a player slowly”, interpreted it literally, and tried to figure out how he could develop JP as slowly as possible?

    “If I jerk him around, give him no role, make sure he never has time to develop chemistry with line mates, and press box the hell out of him, he won’t develop into a top line winger for another 12 years!”

    Memories of press box and popcorn remain fresh.

  37. Professor Q says:

    Why is everyone turning on Jesse today?

  38. Wilde says:

    smellyglove:

    Seriously, what do you guys see in Jesse P.?

    A Rorschach test for hockey observers.

  39. Glovjuice says:

    HT Joe: Ha ha!They’ve been massively screwing up ever since Katz bought the team, since they ended up with 3 #1 overalls and a #3 overall before drafting McDavid.

    Wow, I sort of forgot that the Oilers have had FOUR #1 overalls, and a # 3 overall in the last 8 drafts and we have THIS. It’s crazy.

  40. HT Joe says:

    Professor Q:
    Why is everyone turning on Jesse today?

    I don’t think that’s the case. One poster noted concern of him becoming a dud, and I’m predicting a well-rounded middle six winger (I think that’s pretty realistic at this point). I wouldn’t consider either trashing him, nor do I detect any malice in the comments about him.

  41. texmex says:

    Professor Q,

    Draisaitl

  42. Wilde says:

    HT Joe: This season, he’s been passed by Tyson Jost, Jakob Chychrun, and Sam Girard for points accumulated from his draft class. JP is currently sitting at #13 for points scored from his draft year, but #7 for games played. He looks like he has good defensive instincts, and impresses me with his skating but offence looks like it’s not translating – maybe a strong, well-rounded middle six winger?

    Tyson Jost’s career 5v5 P/60 is 1.11; Puljujärvi’s is 1.34.

    In both of their last full-ish seasons (2017-18)-

    – Jesse put up 9.27 SOG per hour 5v5, Jost 6.99 (nice)

    – Jesse’s 5v5 individual shooting % was 7.94, Jost’s 6.90 (nice)

    Over this year and last, Jost’s FF% rel were -2.53%, -4.60%.

    Jesse over the same was +1.24%, -0.97%. (He was +2.52% at 18)

    During this period of the last two years, the Avalanche have been 13th in GF/60, the Oilers 20th.

    When it comes to Girard and Chychrun, that’s tough, obviously the points are misleading just as they are with Jost because of opportunity but Sammy Girard is one of my favourite players so choosing between them would be tough.

    I don’t think either guy gives more than Jesse Puljujärvi does right now and has in the past. They’re both been very sheltered, and showed up in Dellow’s work exposing the OTF shift sheltering in addition to the more traditional measures used to identify soft deployments

    Conversely, during Puljujärvi’s softer minutes he’s mostly with Lucic.

    My stance on Puljujärvi’s many criticisms is that I’ve got tons of time for people concerned about his production, and his ceiling in that area.

    (Though Puljujärvi’s production in terms of counting stats is misleading, as I’ve detailed above, and I think by the time he’s delivering respectable counts (say, 50+ pts) to the point where people concede that he’s a useful player, they’ll be late on that assessment by a couple years)

    Any other criticisms (not speaking to yours, which is valid) are fairly hard to take seriously, because the ones I’ve seen are either a) extremely vague or b) sufficiently detailed but erroneous

  43. HT Joe says:

    Wilde,

    Thanks for the thoughtful and detailed response. Really nice context. I appreciate it.

  44. smellyglove says:

    Re: Jesse

    Better to know what we have now than bank on him being a top line, top 6 player. So far I haven’t seen much to justify his hype, he should be a serviceable 3rd line player, which is fine, this happens. But best to acknowledge the Oilers need scoring wingers in a big way – let’s not hope for something that never happens (or is unlikely to) in that JP goes nova.

    LT, I like your patience. I have learned from you. The five year rule… sure. But for every player that is written off and comes back to cover their draft bet, I argue there are five more that show who they really are in their draft plus 1 and draft plus 2 seasons.

    The whole junior points (and EV or primary points) being the biggest predictor of NHL success, even though you get the odd Lucic. Arguably the same applies to newly drafted players who go pro. What are the odds of a middling 18 to 20-year old AHL player ripping it up in the NHL?

  45. Professor Q says:

    Well at least it ramped up a good discussion.

  46. JimmyV1965 says:

    Ben:
    Funny, just last week I was wondering what MacT was up to, hadn’t been particularly present in media over the last couple of years.

    Suddenly, he’s on Hometown Hockey and doing feature interviews with Staples in the Journal.

    GEE I WONDER WHY

    Very, very interesting. Sure gives me the impression he ain’t going anywhere. Hope I’m reading way too much into it.

  47. Glovjuice says:

    OriginalPouzar: No doubt that Treliving has proven to be a better contract negotiator than Chiarelli but the flames got super lucky on timing – the Monohan and Gaudreau deals were up and they were re-signed the year before an explosion in RFA contracts – if they wouldn’t have had one more year, they would each be a good $1.5M or so more I would think.

    Which contracts other than Drai’s represent this explosion?

  48. JimmyV1965 says:

    I think it’s possible to favour trading the first round pick and still believe in the draft and develop model. They are not mutually exclusive. Right now, I would prefer to trade the first than JP. I look at Bennet in Calgary and see a player they have been patient with. He hasn’t developed into the player they thought he would be, but he’s become an effective NHLer. Same thing with Virtannen in Vancouver. My opinion may change depending on our draft position, but I think there are many different ways to skin a cat. Our top six is so utterly awful right now I think we need to get an impact player sooner than later. It’s so bad, I think it affects our ability to develop the prospects we do have.

  49. Jaxon says:

    Glovjuice: Wow, I sort of forgot that the Oilers have had FOUR #1 overalls, and a # 3 overall in the last 8 drafts and we have THIS. It’s crazy.

    Not to mention #14 (Dubnyk) & #25 (Schremp) in 2004, #25 (Cogliano) in 2005, #6 (Gagner), #15(Plante), & #21(Nash) in 2007, #22 (Eberle) in 2008, #10 (Paajarvi) in 2009, #1 (Hall), & #31 (Pitlick) in 2010, #1 (Nugent-Hopkins), & #19 (Klefbom) in 2011, #1 (Yakupov), & #32 (Moroz) in 2012, #7 (Nurse) in 2013, #3 (Draisaitl) in 2014, #1 (McDavid) in 2015, #4 (Puljujarvi), & #32 (Benson) in 2016, #22 (Yamamoto) in 2017, and #10 (Bouchard) in 2018. 21 first rounders by new 32 team League standards. 11 top 16 picks.

  50. HT Joe says:

    Jaxon: 11 top 16 picks.

    Actually your list has 12 top-16 picks, and then there’s the 16th overall from 2015 (Barzal) that Chia traded away. And the Tyler Myers pick (12th overall) used to offer sheet Penner makes 14.

    So the Oilers have essentially used 14 top-16 draft picks in the last 15 drafts. Is that right??

    Crazy to think that Klefbom and Eberle are among the lower first round picks the Oilers have made this century.

  51. drglen says:

    JimmyV1965:
    I think it’s possible to favour trading the first round pick and still believe in the draft and develop model. They are not mutually exclusive. Right now, I would prefer to trade the first than JP. I look at Bennet in Calgary and see a player they have been patient with. He hasn’t developed into the player they thought he would be, but he’s become an effective NHLer. Same thing with Virtannen in Vancouver. My opinion may change depending on our draft position, but I think there are many different ways to skin a cat. Our top six is so utterly awful right now I think we need to get an impact player sooner than later. It’s so bad, I think it affects our ability to develop the prospects we do have.

    Bennet is a tough customer as well. That’s a guy in the Gallagher mould.

  52. Glovjuice says:

    Jaxon: Not to mention #14 (Dubnyk) & #25 (Schremp) in 2004, #25 (Cogliano) in 2005, #6 (Gagner), #15(Plante), & #21(Nash) in 2007, #22 (Eberle) in 2008, #10 (Paajarvi) in 2009, #1 (Hall), & #31 (Pitlick) in 2010, #1 (Nugent-Hopkins), & #19 (Klefbom) in 2011, #1 (Yakupov), & #32 (Moroz) in 2012, #7 (Nurse) in 2013, #3 (Draisaitl) in 2014, #1 (McDavid) in 2015, #4 (Puljujarvi), & #32 (Benson) in 2016, #22 (Yamamoto) in 2017, and #10 (Bouchard) in 2018. 21 first rounders by new 32 team League standards. 11 top 16 picks.

    yakapov, Puli and 16/32 are costing a cup or so for sure.

  53. drglen says:

    Hold on JP. Hold your cards. I don’t have stats, I don’t even watch on TV, .. but, it becomes clear on radio that he’s finding a groove, is becoming a catalyst of sorts. Don’t sell this kid. Once he realizes ‘hey, I can play with these chumps’… and gives himself permission, watch out. His brain and body is catching up, and for sure, he’s become a coaching and defending concern for the opposition. Hold, don’t sell.

    Honestly I dont’ think they should trade any prospect, and should only try to unload bad players, even for essentially worthless pics, cash, or farm, ECL players, just to get them off the roster.

  54. Drew says:

    Melman:
    not only was the Manning for Drake a dumb trade on player for player and extra year of salary cap, it also removed one of the team’s non-core players that may have had a modicum of appeal to an opposing team in a trade.

    Serious question:Are there other’s who check TSN every 3 or 4 hours hoping for the “Oilers fire Pete” headline, or is that just me?

    i do all the time. always hope.

  55. Drew says:

    Klima’s_Bucket: Was the explosion set off with Chiarelli’s overpay of Draisaitl?

    and we have a winner!

  56. LMHF#1 says:

    Debrincat with his 21st tonight…wonder how many he’d have playing with #97…

    I’m going to go smash my head against the wall some more…

  57. Dominoiler says:

    OriginalPouzar: 1) the team isn’t in a position to trade prospects or picks for difference makers with term due to cap reasons.They essentially cannot take on any cap in a trade.

    2) Of course a fan will want a “better team” but there are many different ways to build a team and fans can have differing opinions on how to build a “better team”.Personally, I want a team built that is a perennial playoff contender and, no, what your propose, to me, doesn’t make that a more likely result.I prefer patience, keeping the picks/prospects, letting the anchor contracts expire over the next few years while the prospects graduate and provide cheap value – this will lead to cap crunch alleviation and the ability to substantially improve with more material moves.

    This may not “make the team better” in the next year or so.

    I am quite certain I am a fan.

    All while CmD dies on the vine..

    There are no good solutions for the Oilers, this team is sunk, chai has sewered them and there is no getting out of it..

  58. Dominoiler says:

    My wife openly questioned whether or not I’ll dump the Oilers (having cheered for them my whole life) and get behind whatever team trades for the Cup (CmD, ala CFP).. Haven’t decided yet, but I find this question to be more interesting than any other aspect of this remaining Oilers season..

    Haha, it’s funny to think back to how chai was a ‘material’ upgrade to the previous management regimes.. Hahaha.. This team is a fucking bad joke; they have one of the best players in the league and are still a pathetic bungled mess of an organization (at least drafting has been better)..

  59. Professor Q says:

    I wonder if any other fan base is this dramatic about their star player and their career being over after just 4 years?

    Detroit with Yzerman? Pittsburgh with Lemieux? Buffalo with Eichel? Washington with Ovechkin? There are likely many more. Sure, McDavid could end up being Dionne, but I think he’ll be fine.

    We will all be fine.

  60. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ottawa down by a goal for most of the game ties it up half way through the third and wins it in OT to hold ANA to a single point.

    Not a bad result considering how bad OTT is.

  61. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV1965:
    I think it’s possible to favour trading the first round pick and still believe in the draft and develop model. They are not mutually exclusive. Right now, I would prefer to trade the first than JP. I look at Bennet in Calgary and see a player they have been patient with. He hasn’t developed into the player they thought he would be, but he’s become an effective NHLer. Same thing with Virtannen in Vancouver. My opinion may change depending on our draft position, but I think there are many different ways to skin a cat. Our top six is so utterly awful right now I think we need to get an impact player sooner than later. It’s so bad, I think it affects our ability to develop the prospects we do have.

    Sorry, I don’t need to be rude but posters have responded to your position numerous times with the fact that the team cannot take on any cap in a trade – there is no cap room (the little bit of LTIR relief room we currently have will disappear soon and we will be right at the upper cap limit with having banked minimal cap space through the year) and you have ignored this. Logistically how can this type of trade be made with a corresponding move where we open up cap room which would be a move where we likely bleed more assets/value and/or additional picks/prospects.

    I think you’ve professed that the trade may be an off-season thing and that does provide some more flexibility due to the ability to go over the cap, etc. but the overall premise is similar is that there will be nominal cap room next season for this type of trade unless a material contract is moved out.

    Not to mention, the Oilers are already set to lose a good asset in the expansion draft and this type of trade will lead to an even more material player being lost (subject to other moves in the interim).

  62. OriginalPouzar says:

    LMHF#1:
    Debrincat with his 21st tonight…wonder how many he’d have playing with #97…

    I’m going to go smash my head against the wall some more…

    but, but, but, Benson turned the puck over at the Texas blueline last night and it went back the other way and ended up on the Condor net for a 3-1 deficit…..

    Caveat: I like Tyler Benson

  63. OriginalPouzar says:

    Dominoiler: All while CmD dies on the vine..

    There are no good solutions for the Oilers, this team is sunk, chai has sewered them and there is no getting out of it..

    Bah – I don’t buy in to that line of thought about McDavid.

    He is in the 1st year of an 8 year contract. He is 21 years old.

    The way forward that I proposed should see the cap crunch alleviated within a few seasons and the ability to improve and become a consistent contender – all while McDavid is years on the right side of 25 and signed for over half a decade.

    There is a way out, I professed one way forward.

    There is no quick way out and trying to “not have McDavid die on the vine” will, in my opinion, lead to further delay real team improvements.

  64. Wilde says:

    I hate the fuckin’ (Colorado) Eagles, man.

  65. OriginalPouzar says:

    Its fairly clear that the team isn’t very good, however, there is a “not very good team” that is going to win that second wild card spot (likely ANA, MIN or EDM) and I’ve got a hard target on that spot.

    Nope, I do not want management to make any moves to try and improve right now (I’m talking picks/prospects for rentals) but stay the course and see how we do over the next few weeks. Some reinforcements are coming back in the next 2-4 weeks, namely Klefbom and Sekera. That’s two material mid-season acquisitions for no cost. Klefbom we know makes a big difference and, even if Sekera is only “75%”, that’s a big bump over Petrovic, Manning, Benning and improves the team.

    6 of the next 7 are at home and there are some softer teams in there.

    This will be a season defining stretch.

    Lets go Oilers!

  66. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    JimmyV1965: Hate the frickin Flames. Not only are they better, their contract situation is amazing. Tkachuk will cost them though. If Nylander gets $7 mill, he’s worth at least $8 mill. Hall signing there would be the ultimate frick you to the team that screwed him over. I’m sure he’ll cost upwards of $10 mill though.

    Yeah, Tkachuk will cost.

    They’ll still have boatloads of room if they go signing more Neals between now and then.

  67. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Wilde: A Rorschach test for hockey observers.

    We used to call Petry the “Hockey Turing Test”

  68. HT Joe says:

    Professor Q: I wonder if any other fan base is this dramatic about their star player and their career being over after just 4 years?

    Who said McDavid’s career is over?

    It seems like you’re putting a lot of words into posters mouths in this thread (e.g., not everyone is turning on Jesse today either). Are you perhaps a bit dramatic yourself?

  69. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Yeeeeeeessssshhh

    Thanks for that

    I believe it was actually first pointed out by your current BFF, BLH!

  70. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I believe it was actually first pointed out by your current BFF, BLH!

    I don’t get that guy.

    I gave a review on him and his (shitty) work when a poster requested it and then apparently he’s been going off on me on twitter since.

    I have him blocked (among others) whose posts just give me heartburn.

    Its better for everyone if we don’t interact but alas, I remain a target from what people are telling me.

  71. Professor Q says:

    HT Joe: Who said McDavid’s career is over?

    It seems like you’re putting a lot of words into posters mouths in this thread (e.g., not everyone is turning on Jesse today either).Are you perhaps a bit dramatic yourself?

    It seems like you’re trying to psychoanalyze me and doing the same via attempting to move the goalposts, so to speak.

    When posters say that Edmonton has wasted McDavid and claim the sky is falling, and that he should be freed to reach his full potential or he’ll most certainly want out either at the end of his contract or demand a trade (which does occur, here and elsewhere, sorry that you’re blind to that and pretending to be the opposing sage) then I do not see me being the dramatic one when I claim that that’s way too hasty and dramatic, and clearly not patient.

    People who say those things seem to feel as though Edmonton should outright have a few Cups by now, which seems to be a mix of unrealistic expectations, haste, spoiling due to recent events in other teams and other factors, and who knows what else.

    At least Original Pouzar seems to be similar in thought to myself, if a bit different in his own way.

  72. JimmyV1965 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Sorry, I don’t need to be rude but posters have responded to your position numerous times with the fact that the team cannot take on any cap in a trade – there is no cap room (the little bit of LTIR relief room we currently have will disappear soon and we will be right at the upper cap limit with having banked minimal cap space through the year) and you have ignored this. Logistically how can this type of trade be made with a corresponding move where we open up cap room which would be a move where we likely bleed more assets/value and/or additional picks/prospects.

    I think you’ve professed that the trade may be an off-season thing and that does provide some more flexibility due to the ability to go over the cap, etc. but the overall premise is similar is that there will be nominal cap room next season for this type of trade unless a material contract is moved out.

    Not to mention, the Oilers are already set to lose a good asset in the expansion draft and this type of trade will lead to an even more material player being lost (subject to other moves in the interim).

    You’re not being rude at all. We have to find a way to get rid of cap. Period. Whether we make a trade or not.

  73. rickithebear says:

    We lack strong shooting % fwd depth.
    Eberle for strome for Skinner is a huge reduction in shooting density.
    Lucid not having his bounce back year in shooting density is a huge issue.
    That is 40g our team does not have.

« Older Comments

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca