Crossfire Hurricane

Ken Hitchcock’s post-game avail last night was golden. He said “we were exhausted. This is the worst-case scenario. Four-game road trip, travel all day, come back and play.” He also said “these games can really help you moving forward as a team because it’s damn impressive what they did.”

Aside from his coaching ability, Ken Hitchcock has created a storyline, a sideshow, that gives everyone a glimpse into the day-to-day of this team. It reminds me so much of Craig MacTavish, and I think elevates the experience. The transcript is here.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton is going to bring it all season long. Proud to be part of a lineup that is ready to cover the coming year. Outstanding coverage from a large group, including Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis, Lowetide, Minnia Feng and Pat McLean. If you haven’t subscribed yet, now’s your chance. Outstanding offer is here.

  • New Jonathan Willis: Forecasting Oilers junior prospects based on their statistical performance
  • New Lowetide: Complete Oilers top 20 prospects, Winter 2018
  • New Jonathan Willis: Analysing the risk of heaping heavy minutes on Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.
  • New Lowetide: Oilers midseason report card, brought to you by the letter ‘F’
  • Jonathan Willis: Unlikely scorer Jujhar Khaira has forced his way up the Oilers’ lineup on merit.
  • Black Dog Pat: There’s no in-season balancing for the Oilers
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 10 prospect Winter 2018: Dylan Wells.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: From 2 to 98, Oilers share the stories behind their jersey numbers.
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 9 prospect Winter 2018: Joel Persson.
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 8 prospect Winter 2018: Kirill Maksimov.
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 7 prospect Winter 2018: Caleb Jones
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 6 Prospect winter 2018: Cooper Marody
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 5 Prospect winter 2018: Ethan Bear.
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 4 Prospect winter 2018: Ryan McLeod.
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 3 Prospect winter 2018: Tyler Benson.
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 2 Prospect winter 2018: Kailer Yamamoto.
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 1 Prospect winter 2018: Evan Bouchard.

OILERS AFTER 44

  • Oilers in 2015: 17-23-4, 38 points; goal differential -24
  • Oilers in 2016: 22-15-7, 51 points; goal differential +4
  • Oilers in 2017: 18-23-3, 39 points; goal differential -25
  • Oilers in 2018: 21-20-3, 45 points; goal differential -11

The point total has Edmonton on pace to finish 82, 39-37-6, 84 points. That isn’t a playoff team, in fact it’s just six points clear of last year’s disappointing season. It is, however, survival while Klefbom is out. Also, it’s a new, different year. Edmonton is just two points out of the No. 8 spot in the Western Conference. Someone is going to get hot and blow away the competition. That’s why I think the Oilers are going to trade for an established scoring forward in the coming days.

OILERS IN JANUARY

  • Oilers in January 2016: 2-2-1, five points; goal differential -2
  • Oilers in January 2017: 2-3-0, four points; goal differential -3
  • Oilers in January 2018: 1-4-0, two points; goal differential -12
  • Oilers in January 2019: 3-2-0, six points; goal differential -4

This edition of the McDavid Oilers has more points after five January games than previous editions. Avoiding a losing streak in January will be a key for this club’s playoff chances.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM JANUARY

  • On the road to: ArizonaLos AngelesAnaheim, San Jose (Expected 2-2-0) (Actual 2-2-0)
  • At home to: Florida, Arizona, Buffalo (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • On the road to: Vancouver (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Calgary, Carolina, Detroit (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 4-5-2, 10 points in 11 games
  • Current results: 3-2-0, six points in five games

The schedule sets up for the Oilers to win seven or eight games in January, but I don’t think we’re seeing a team destined to go on what the kids call a “heater” any time soon. Then again, this is the same team that has in fact delivered two massive 10-game segments earlier in the year.

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

  • Nurse-Russell were 18-15 in 20:40, 7-7 shots, 2-0 goals and 2-1 HDSC. It was a decidedly successful evening for the pairing, Nurse went 1-1-2 and is on pace for 41 points. Went 10-14 in 15:34 against Huberdeau-Barkov-Malgin. That’s a hard match. Lordy. Nurse had eight shots and played 31:40.
  • Jones-Larsson went 12-14 in 13:52, 4-11 shots, 0-3 goals and 3-5 HDSC. Jones got walked on the first goal, the other two were weird luck and own goal. Still this pairing is starting to leak, it’s good news Klefbom is going to be ready to skate with the team by the weekend. Timeline is still post All-Star game for return. Jones-Larsson were 8-3 in 8:09 against Hoffman-Borgstrom-Dadanov.
  • Gravel-Benning were 2-9 in 11:06, 2-4 shots, no goals and no HDSC. I think Hitchcock’s third pairing is supposed to skate around and make sure nothing happens. Went 1-6 in 6:07 against Vatrano-Lammiko-Brouwer.
  • Cam Talbot stopped 27 of 30, .900. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he starts on Saturday.
  • NHL.com and NaturalStatTrick.

FORWARDS, LAST NIGHT

  • Lucic-Nuge-Puljujarvi were 8-5 in 8:28, 4-3 shots, no goals and 3-0 HDSC. I have to say this line has some appeal although the possession number (47 percent) is low the trio is 2-0 in GF in 52 minutes. Were 7-4 in 7:22 against Yandle-Pysyk.
  • Lucic-Brodziak-Spooner were 6-4 in 3:22, 2-1 shots, no goals and 1-0 HDSC. Gambardella played two minutes on the line as well.
  • Draisaitl-McDavid-Chiasson were 7-12 in 13:19, 3-6 shots, 2-0 goals and 0-1 HDSC. McDavid is beyond reason as a hockey player. You can’t just order up a damned goal you know, and yet, last night, Draisaitl to McDavid and it’s money. Again. McDavid was 13-17 in 16:28 (2-1 goals) against Matheson-Ekblad, these two teams play enjoyable games. The hit by McDavid on Ekblad got Denis Potvin’s attention but it wasn’t anything at all.
  • Rieder-Khaira-Kassian went 3-7 in 7:07, 3-6 shots, 0-1 goals and 0-1 HDSC. Went 0-9 in 5:28 against the made up names Bogdan Kiselevich and MacKenzie Weegar. As if.

THE NEW LINES

Connor McDavid spent 6:34 with Nuge and Chiasson (a goal and 7-6 Corsi, 2-1 goals, all of this 5-on-5); Leon spent five minutes with Jesse (3-2 in 5:18, 2-3 shots); Khaira spent 3:25 with Lucic and Kassian (1-4 Corsi, 1-0 shots). I think that’s the line shuffle Hitch was talking about, honestly the feed was so poor I went to the Panthers broadcast online and found it impossible to accurately track the goings on.

TAKEAWAYS

They never held the lead during the game, and won the damned thing. They looked bagged. Edmonton needs more scoring support on the wings. This January push is going to be aided by the schedule. It’s vital the Oilers take advantage.

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265 Responses to "Crossfire Hurricane"

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  1. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    CoH said that the coach ended Joe G’s night in the 1st hence the low low TOI number.

    Anyone have an idea why? Guessing sickness but not sure.

  2. Litke 94 says:

    This is one of the weirdest seasons I can remember. An endless roller coaster of high’s and low’s.

    I have absolutely no idea what to expect at any time, both from game to game and whistle to whistle.

  3. OriginalPouzar says:

    That was far from a perfect game last night but, at the end of the day, that team overcame another bad break goal that put it behind with only a few minutes left and scrapped for two points. More often than not, that “own goal” ends things but they got a massive tying goal that may have saved the season. A bonus point and this is a game to build on.

    They couldn’t muster a ton offensively and Florida probably carried the play but they were kept to the outside and the Oilers had the advantage is scoring chances.

    2 points in the bank and off to HNIC for another two.

  4. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Aside from his coaching ability, Ken Hitchcock has created a storyline, a sideshow, that gives everyone a glimpse into the day-to-day of this team. It reminds me so much of Craig MacTavish, and I think elevates the experience.

    While I see the comparison with MacT becuase they are both compelling speakers whose avails are/were “must listen” Hitch has one significant difference.

    Hitch is *always* protecting his players.

    Even after LAK where he called the team out, he didn’t call out anyone by name, but elevated Nurse.

    When talking about specific players its always positive.

    I bet the players appreciate Hitch having their back in public (even while he may be roasting them in private)

    MacT wasn’t adverse to pointing fingers, especially once he was a GM.

    TMac was terrible at singling out players for bad play and of course the “team in orange” comment will live on in infamy for a while.

    Its a very refreshing change.

  5. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Western Conference Playoff Standings using Points Percentage expressed as points over/under fake Bettman .500

    Pacific
    CGY 15
    SJS 13
    VGK 11

    Central
    WPG 13
    NSH 12
    DAL 5

    Wildcard
    MIN 4
    COL 4

    Out of playoffs
    ANA 2
    EDM 1
    VAN -1
    ARI -2
    STL -2
    CHI -6
    LAK -8

    Relevant games tonight:

    PIT at ANA (PIT -135)

    I know that CGY plays FLA tonight, but that’s not relevant to EDM.

  6. Jethro Tull says:

    What was our new mantra again? Oh yeah;

    Some shitty team is going to make the playoffs, why not us!

  7. OriginalPouzar says:

    Do we need to talk about Darnell Nurse’s offensive spike? What is it, 16 points in the last 17 games. I’m not sure what the McDavid on/off splits are but, even if they are 100% McDavid on points, production is production.

    Personally, I think his production over-represents his true offensive abilities/instincts but, again, production is production and the man is producing.

    He has taken full advantage of the the Klefbom hole in offensive opportunities and, frankly, although he doesn’t “look great out there”, not visually appealing offensively, the points are coming.

    Is he a 40 point d-man?

  8. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Survival without Klef indeed.

    – You hang in there, steal a few games , and when Klef/ Sek get back (or Sek is done and his LTIR gets used once determined). Russell is still better than many of our D: glad he’s back

    – Team has had a few great runs this year: I bet they go on another one when the D improves/returns

    – Was at condo in Miami over Holidays: saw the Panthers vs Columbus: they are a gritty team

    – Hitch does a good job of making the team feel good about themselves I think. The comments from Caggs were interesting about walking on egg-shells and daily turmoil. Give Hitch respect for recognizing this, and not dying after every loss:

    https://www.nhl.com/blackhawks/news/feature-caggiula-settling-in-with-simple-game/c-303755228

    – Nice to be back: Thanks for that LT…

  9. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    EDM Goal Share after 44 games (21-20-3)

    Even strength (5v5, 4v4, 3v3):
    McDavid On Ice 46-36 (56%)
    McDavid Off Ice 40-61 (40%)
    EV=-11

    Special Teams (PP+SH For-PK+SH Against):
    30-31
    ST=-1

    Empty Net: (all 5v6 & 5v6)
    6-12
    EN= -6

    SO & PS
    2-1

    SO/PS+1

    Net Goal Differential -17

  10. 106 and 106 says:

    Jethro Tull,

    Why not us! Why not us! Why not us!

  11. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    HITCHCOCK ERA:
    EDM Goal Share after 24 games (12-10-2)

    Even strength (5v5, 4v4, 3v3)
    McDavid On Ice 26-22 (54%)
    McDavid Off Ice 22-33 (40%)
    Net EV -7

    Sp. Teams (PP+SH For–PK+SH Against)
    13-12
    Net ST +1

    Empty Net
    4-7
    Net EN -3

    SO & PS
    2-1
    SO & PS=+1

    Net Goal Differential -8

    Jethro Tull:
    What was our new mantra again? Oh yeah;

    Some shitty team is going to make the playoffs, why not us!

    Awesome.

    I’m stealing that (with credit) and putting it on twitter

  12. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Darnell is likely to hit a career high in goals and points before the break.

    Lots of folks seem to be down (or at least indifferent) to Nurse’s offensive progression since the Klefbom injury but I’m not so sure. His goal last night was an excellent read on his part to jump into the play. There are still warts to his game and maybe its just folks zeroing in on his rushes and there is a distinct lack of flash to his game outside those rushes but he seems full-value for his points.

    Curious to see if he can keep it up once Oscar returns.

  13. Sierra says:

    Jethro Tull:
    What was our new mantra again? Oh yeah;

    Some shitty team is going to make the playoffs, why not us!

    Lol

    That’s gold Jerry, gold!

  14. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Aside from his coaching ability, Ken Hitchcock has created a storyline, a sideshow, that gives everyone a glimpse into the day-to-day of this team. It reminds me so much of Craig MacTavish, and I think elevates the experience.

    While I see the comparison with MacT becuase they are both compelling speakers whose avails are/were “must listen” Hitch has one significant difference.

    Hitch is *always* protecting his players.

    Even after LAK where he called the team out, he didn’t call out anyone by name, but elevated Nurse.

    When talking about specific players, its always positive.

    I bet the players appreciate Hitch having their back in public (even while he may be roasting them in private)

    MacT wasn’t adverse to pointing fingers, especially once he was a GM.

    TMac was terrible at singling out players for bad play and of course the “team in orange” comment will live on in infamy for a while.

    Its a very refreshing change.

    Sometimes I have thoughts in my head. And they don’t come out in a clear manner.

    This is well said. +1

  15. jtblack says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Do we need to talk about Darnell Nurse’s offensive spike?What is it, 16 points in the last 17 games.I’m not sure what the McDavid on/off splits are but, even if they are 100% McDavid on points, production is production.

    Personally, I think his production over-represents his true offensive abilities/instincts but, again, production is production and the man is producing.

    He has taken full advantage of the the Klefbom hole in offensive opportunities and, frankly, although he doesn’t “look great out there”, not visually appealing offensively, the points are coming.

    Is he a 40 point d-man?

    +1. If Nurse could master the outlet pass better, he would be better to the eye ….. But he is playing a lot and putting up points.

  16. John Chambers says:

    Wingers. My kingdom for a pair of savvy NHL wingers.

    This summer’s UFA crop is pretty extensive, and my guess is that GM’s will offer shorter terms because of looming expansion.

    Beyond the top grade: Stone, Duchene, Panarin, Skinner

    There’s a broad tier of quality 2nd and 3rd line wingers who may need to accept lower dollars or term:
    Zuccarello, Eberle, Nelson, Lee, Nyquist, Simmonds, Panik, B Tanev, Dzingel, Nosek, C Wilson.

    There are a few Centres in the mix as well: Brassard, Staal, Kevin Hayes

    Needless to say, whoever the GM is should be poised to clear salary (Dammit Manning), and pick up 2 or 3 of the above-listed players for as low cost as possible.

  17. Lowetide says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:

    – Nice to be back: Thanks for that LT…

    You’re part of the family. No need to thank me for anything. Pull up a chair and start talking! 🙂

  18. jtblack says:

    Even the Hitchmas Miracle cannot solve the “McDavid OFF” issue.

    40% it remains.

    Leon over 28 minutes. WOW! If we are slotting top draft picks over the last decade, Leon is safely #3.

    McDavid
    Hall
    Draisatl

    Thank GORD we didn’t take Bennett.

  19. frjohnk says:

    jtblack: Thank GORD we didn’t take Bennett.

    Or won the Dylan Strome lottery

  20. jtblack says:

    frjohnk: Or won the Dylan Strome lottery

    Even tho we haven’t had perfect luck in the draft. Getting Drai @ #3 was a HUGE win.

    Sportsnet did a 2015 Re-Draft and still had Leon @ #3.

    1st overall in the re draft??? Brayden Point !!!

  21. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Aside from his coaching ability, Ken Hitchcock has created a storyline, a sideshow, that gives everyone a glimpse into the day-to-day of this team. It reminds me so much of Craig MacTavish, and I think elevates the experience.

    While I see the comparison with MacT becuase they are both compelling speakers whose avails are/were “must listen” Hitch has one significant difference.

    Hitch is *always* protecting his players.

    Even after LAK where he called the team out, he didn’t call out anyone by name, but elevated Nurse.

    When talking about specific players its always positive.

    I bet the players appreciate Hitch having their back in public (even while he may be roasting them in private)

    MacT wasn’t adverse to pointing fingers, especially once he was a GM.

    TMac was terrible at singling out players for bad play and of course the “team in orange” comment will live on in infamy for a while.

    Its a very refreshing change.

    We’ll see. I remember Tom Renney saying “I’ll never call out a player” and that was true until it wasn’t anymore. The nature of coaching is that at some point all available bullets will be used. I do agree that Hitchcock’s relationships with players are mostly private until the player makes them public.

    https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/brett-hull-like-play-offence-ken-hitchcock/

  22. rickithebear says:

    People keep talking Seattle expansion.
    June 2021.
    Any player 24+ and older will be 27+ ufa eligible.
    Expired contracts ufa,s
    RNH
    Spooner
    Kassian
    Brodziak
    Chiasson
    Larsson
    Russell
    Sekera
    Manning
    Talbot
    Koskinen
    Hope we can get Larsson extended for 3-5 yr

    24+ yr RFA,s
    Reider
    Rattie
    Khaira
    Gambardella
    Vessel
    Benning
    Persson
    Starred

    Current players under contract on exp draft day.
    Mcdavid
    Draisaitl
    Lucic
    Klefbom
    Hopefully lucic is gone

    U24 Rfas
    Puljujarvi
    Yamamoto
    Benson
    Hebig
    Marody
    Vesey
    Nurse
    Jones
    Lagesson
    Bear
    Skinner
    Wells

    Unsigned RFA
    Berglund
    Kemp

    ELC are unprotected.
    Signed ELC
    Maksimov
    Safin
    Bouchard
    Samakourov

    Unsigned ELC
    McLeod

    7 fwds
    Mcdavid, Draisaitl, Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, benson,
    ELC Maximov, McLeod, Safin
    3 D
    Larsson, Klefbom, Nurse
    ELC Bouchard, Samakourov
    1G
    Skinner

    4 fwds
    Mcdavid, Draisaitl, Puljujarvi, Yamamoto
    Maximov, McLeod, Savin
    4D
    Larsson, Klefbom, Nurse, Jones
    Bouchard, samakourov
    1 G
    Skinner

  23. rickithebear says:

    When I looked at forwards 10 days ago.
    Thier were 8 forwards who were top 31 (#1) fwd in
    Goals, EVG, PPG
    Points, EVP, PPP
    From start of 16-17 to 10 days ago.
    Tavares
    Ovechkin
    Crosby
    Malkin
    Draisaitl
    Kucherov
    Marchand
    Pastarnak

    People want to trade one of the 8 most complete off fwds with a lesser salary.
    Put your heads in a corner and bow them in shame.

  24. jtblack says:

    rickithebear:
    When I looked at forwards 10 days ago.
    Thier were 8 forwards who were top 31 (#1) fwd in
    Goals, EVG, PPG
    Points, EVP, PPP
    From start of 16-17 to 10 days ago.
    Tavares
    Ovechkin
    Crosby
    Malkin
    Draisaitl
    Kucherov
    Marchand
    Pastarnak

    People want to trade one of the 8 most complete off fwds with a lesser salary.
    Put your heads in a corner and bow them in shame.

    Where was Connor ranked?

  25. YKOil says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Do we need to talk about Darnell Nurse’s offensive spike?What is it, 16 points in the last 17 games.I’m not sure what the McDavid on/off splits are but, even if they are 100% McDavid on points, production is production.

    Personally, I think his production over-represents his true offensive abilities/instincts but, again, production is production and the man is producing.

    He has taken full advantage of the the Klefbom hole in offensive opportunities and, frankly, although he doesn’t “look great out there”, not visually appealing offensively, the points are coming.

    Is he a 40 point d-man?

    I am mixed on this. Glad he has stepped up but believe most any d-man, with competency could be getting most of those points.

    So, his next contract will be for $5.5 million+ because Sekera/Klefbom were both injured. Yet he isn’t as good as either one of the two (injuries notwithstanding).

    Except for Klefbom’s contract, the Oilers rarely benefit when it comes to contract ‘timing’.

  26. rickithebear says:

    jtblack: Where was Connor ranked?

    Connor was not a #1 fwd in all 6 offensive categories
    Not Marner
    Not Mathews

  27. dustrock says:

    Nurse really turning it around, great time to sell high on him.

    Perhaps the only non-Nuge player we could possibly sell high on.

    Depends on Sekera and whether you think Jones is really ready for full-time work, but maybe Nurse is the guy to move in the offseason to improve RHD or scoring winger.

  28. rickithebear says:

    We lack strong shooting % fwd depth.
    Eberle for strome for Spooner is a huge reduction in shooting density.
    Lucid not having his bounce back year in shooting density is a huge issue.
    That is 40g our team does not have from the wings.

  29. Durag says:

    rickithebear:
    People keep talking Seattle expansion.
    June 2021.

    Hope we can get Larsson extended for 3-5 yr

    I hate to say it, but honestly I think the best value we can get from Larsson is that Seattle picks him instead of Jones.

  30. frjohnk says:

    jtblack: Even tho we haven’t had perfect luck in the draft.Getting Drai @ #3 was a HUGE win.

    Sportsnet did a 2015 Re-Draft and still had Leon @ #3.

    1st overall in the re draft??? Brayden Point !!!

    It seems Draisaitl gets dinged because he plays a bunch of minutes with the best player in the game. Very little consideration that when he does not play with McDavid, he usually plays with 3rd/4th liners but still drives a line.

    But Point plays on the best team in the league.

    and Pasta plays on the best line in the league.

    All 3 great players, but Id take Draisaitl as best player here.

  31. McSorley33 says:

    Remember how good the refs were in our famous playoff run a few years ago?

    How clean the Ducks played the game.

    For the people that want to move a 6’5 elite skating Dman -with a mean streak. – how
    would you replace that? ( yes, still warts in his game, for sure )

    Evan Bouchard is going to be an elite offensive dman in my book but he is not
    an aggressive in his own zone. Same with Klef not a lot of mean there.

    Which is why a player like Larsson doubles in value in the post-season

    Dog eat Dog – sometimes.

    You want to make Mathew Tkachuk smile, trade Darnell Nurse.

    You know who loves Nurse?

    Ken Hitchcock.

  32. jtblack says:

    anyway Oilers could get Palmieri out of New Jersey?

  33. frjohnk says:

    Durag: I hate to say it, but honestly I think the best value we can get from Larsson is that Seattle picks him instead of Jones.

    Larsson is UFA in 2021.

    Let Seattle pick him in June 2021.

    He becomes UFA July 1st, 2021.

    Sign him then.

  34. JimmyV1965 says:

    John Chambers:
    Wingers. My kingdom for a pair of savvy NHL wingers.

    This summer’s UFA crop is pretty extensive, and my guess is that GM’s will offer shorter terms because of looming expansion.

    Beyond the top grade: Stone, Duchene, Panarin, Skinner

    There’s a broad tier of quality 2nd and 3rd line wingers who may need to accept lower dollars or term:
    Zuccarello, Eberle, Nelson, Lee, Nyquist, Simmonds, Panik, B Tanev, Dzingel, Nosek, C Wilson.

    There are a few Centres in the mix as well: Brassard, Staal, Kevin Hayes

    Needless to say, whoever the GM is should be poised to clear salary (Dammit Manning), and pick up 2 or 3 of the above-listed players for as low cost as possible.

    Panik, B Tanev, Nosek, C Wilson These are the only guys on that list that I don’t think get overpaid. And I’m not sure these guys solve any problems. Signing UFAs is not the solution.

  35. Paulie says:

    SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Darnell is likely to hit a career high in goals and points before the break.

    Lots of folks seem to be down (or at least indifferent) to Nurse’s offensive progression since the Klefbom injury but I’m not so sure. His goal last night was an excellent read on his part to jump into the play. There are still warts to his game and maybe its just folks zeroing in on his rushes and there is a distinct lack of flash to his game outside those rushes but he seems full-value for his points.

    Curious to see if he can keep it up once Oscar returns.

    Nurse is a fascinating player. He looks great some nights and terrible others. What’s his ceiling? He really struggled in 2015-16 and I seem to recall some commentary that his statistical performance suggested a lowish ceiling. He never should have been on the big league club then, but the depth was so terrible he had to play (Hunt, Ference, Reinhart all got about 25-35 games that year). In 16-17 he only played 44 games, that didn’t help development. Last year he was healthy, had some experience under his belt, and put together a solid season, esp. on the defensive side. This year he has struggled again on defense, partly because he has to play too many minutes and against competition that’s probably too tough many nights, but as OP notes, he’s doing fairly well offensively. By the eye test, he does some things well and makes a fair number of bone-headed mistakes . By the fancies, his season Corsis range from 42.1 (15-16) to 48.0 (17-18). This year he’s at 46.3. Every year his had about 55% Dzone starts and last year and this played against tough competition many nights.

    Given the progress he’s made over the past two years on the defensive and offensive side of the game and his drive to get better, it seems to me that he could be a very good Dman for years to come if things break right. For me, this means he marries last year’s defensive performance with real offensive gains this year AND the Oilers keep him on the second pair and give him a genuine top 4 right-shot partner.

  36. incubo_nero says:

    frjohnk,

    I thought the expansion rules stated that each team had to make available “roster” players. As an impending UFA, Larsson wouldn’t qualify and so Seattle wouldn’t pick him. But as with Vegas expansion, Seattle may have advance negotiation window with the UFAs so Larsson could be gone regardless AND we lose another player.

  37. kgo says:

    Jones is a quagmire…he’s clearly going to be a legit top 4 in short order but is so green and is costing us games by the handful. I guess this is the price we pay for not addressing the sekera injury last summer. I see Jones returning to the AHL and destroying that league to finish the year…making the big team as #7 next year

  38. JimmyV1965 says:

    jtblack:
    Even the Hitchmas Miracle cannot solve the “McDavid OFF” issue.

    40% it remains.

    Leon over 28 minutes. WOW!If we are slotting top draft picks over the last decade, Leon is safely #3.

    McDavid
    Hall
    Draisatl

    Thank GORD we didn’t take Bennett.

    I love Hall as much as anyone, but I put Drai second on that list. And I don’t think he hits peak performance until he’s 24 or 25. So much of his game is built on strength.

  39. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Re: Nurse vs Klefbom

    I had a look at both of them via various metrics from 17/18 – today.

    I posted it on twitter as the results are more easily read in table form than what I can do here.

    Here’s the link: https://twitter.com/Woodguy55/status/1083765256474615808

    I *may* try to post it here, but its so much info that it can look jumbled and not easy to read in this format.

    Twitter with pics of tables is a much better medium.

  40. Ryan says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I thought the story of the game last night were shots from the dmen. It seemed to be an incredibly high percentage.

    We know that generating most of your shots from the blue line is not a great strategy due to the low shooting percentage in those instances.

    Willis noted that the Oilers didn’t have a shot on net from a forward during the first 16 minutes of the 3rd period.

  41. flyfish1168 says:

    What happened to gambardella last evening?

  42. frjohnk says:

    dustrock:
    Nurse really turning it around, great time to sell high on him.

    Perhaps the only non-Nuge player we could possibly sell high on.

    Depends on Sekera and whether you think Jones is really ready for full-time work, but maybe Nurse is the guy to move in the offseason to improve RHD or scoring winger.

    We need to add to the good players on the team, not trade them to fill a hole while creating another one.

    One of the complaints I have with Nurse ( and its not him, its the roster) is that he has played too much and I believe this has exposed him at times defensively.

    But because he has played so much, it has lessened the amount of time the 3rd pairing and AHL/Dmen have played, so its the lesser of two evils.

    I see a player still growing. He skates the puck out as well as any Dmen in the league. I believe he is better at passing the puck out than most here believe ( numbers show this) Because of his skating he can play in all disciplines ( 3×3, 5×5, PP, PK) reasonalby well. And his play in the Ozone has improved. This guy is a keeper in my books.

  43. giddy says:

    jtblack: Even tho we haven’t had perfect luck in the draft.Getting Drai @ #3 was a HUGE win.

    Sportsnet did a 2015 Re-Draft and still had Leon @ #3.

    1st overall in the re draft??? Brayden Point !!!

    I would have put Pastrnak and Draisaitl above Point without a second thought.

    Point has what, one good playoffs and so far an amazing half-season on one of the best teams the NHL has ever seen on his resume? Don’t get me wrong, he’s a fantastic talent, but that reeks of recency bias.

  44. frjohnk says:

    incubo_nero:
    frjohnk,

    I thought the expansion rules stated that each team had to make available “roster” players. As an impending UFA, Larsson wouldn’t qualify and so Seattle wouldn’t pick him. But as with Vegas expansion, Seattle may have advance negotiation window with the UFAs so Larsson could be gone regardless AND we lose another player.

    Vegas picked Engleland from Calgary who was UFA. He subsequently signed with Vegas.

    Yes the Oilers have to make available players.

    Maybe its Lucic 🙂

  45. OmJo says:

    I understand why some want to sell high on Nurse but dammit I want this organization to develop him and keep him.

    He’s playing a lot of hockey against the best players in the league. He might make mistakes. Let’s remember he’s only 23 years old. I remember the mantra defencemen take longer to develop. Ideally you have him as 2LD with a veteran 2RHD but the Oilers aren’t ideal. He played 13 AHL games before becoming a full time NHL defenceman. By contrast, Jones has 82 AHL games under his belt. AHL development is a luxury Nurse (and many others) weren’t afforded with this organization…

    I’d let Hitch work his magic with him for the rest of the season and see what we have then before trading him. We’ll also see what we have in post-injury Klefbom and especially Sekera by then.

  46. Durag says:

    kgo:
    Jones is a quagmire…he’s clearly going to be a legit top 4 in short order but is so green and is costing us games by the handful.I guess this is the price we pay for not addressing the sekera injury last summer.I see Jones returning to the AHL and destroying that league to finish the year…making the big team as #7 next year

    Jones is way too high up the batting order right now with Klefbom out, but I wouldn’t have a problem with him regularly on the 3rd pair next year.

    I guess the problem is you also want to shelter Bouchard next year and it’s hard to find cover for both young guys.

  47. JimmyV1965 says:

    frjohnk: It seems Draisaitl gets dinged because he plays a bunch of minutes with the best player in the game. Very little consideration that when he does not play with McDavid, he usually plays with 3rd/4th liners but still drives a line.

    But Point plays on the best team in the league.

    and Pasta plays on the best line in the league.

    All 3 great players, but Id take Draisaitl as best player here.

    I think that list is fair. I would rank Drai #3. Pasta played very well while Bergeron was out and Point is just an exceptional player. I would have him #1. It can be argued he’s the best player on Tampa. Certainly has the most complete game. Being #3 on this list is nothing to sneeze at. These are some of the best players in the league.

  48. jtblack says:

    flyfish1168:
    What happened to gambardella last evening?

    I can tell you this. Joe G. makes Lucic look quick …

    can’t see him having an NHL career beyond a cup of coffee. 🙁

  49. frjohnk says:

    Nurse scoring 1.64 pts/60 with McDavid in 329 minutes
    1.57 pts/60 with RNH in 266 minutes
    1.29 pts/60 with Drai in 325 minutes.

    Thats better than the majority of wingers.

  50. frjohnk says:

    Fucking rights!

    Jason Gregor
    ‏Verified account @JasonGregor
    2m2 minutes ago

    Leon Draisaitl voted in to All Star game along with Jeff Skinner, Kris Letang and Gabriel Landeskog. #NHL

  51. hags9k says:

    Keep good players. Nurse is a good player.

  52. giddy says:

    JimmyV1965: I love Hall as much as anyone, but I put Drai second on that list. And I don’t think he hits peak performance until he’s 24 or 25. So much of his game is built on strength.

    I do agree with this. Hate to revive the “gets his feet moving” trope, but when he really gets skating he’s a bull with the puck. Last night he skated the puck deep, around the net, and then up the boards and gets a good pass to a dman to continue the cycle. Had a guy on him the whole time getting the cold shoulder.

    The one thing consistently giving me hope about this team is getting to watch McDavid and Draisaitl just shred the league when they’re 25-26.

    That, and I want to see how many Art Ross’ McDavid can win in a row. As LT so eloquently said, the pretenders are starting to fade away. Halfway through the season, McDavid is only two points behind Rantanen, has blown by Point, and is tied with MacKinnon and Gaudreau despite playing less games than each. March is usually the month he really ramps it up, too, and by April I’m sure he’ll have a good margin on everyone.

  53. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    dustrock:

    Depends on Sekera

    – Indeed: Sek has been the biggest “anchor” to development of the D.

    – Nothing you can do differently, but his $5,5MM hole with no visibility on who he is (or if/when he comes back) has really hampered the team in the last 2 years: it’s set back the team most

    – Sek 2016 for the last 2 years changes this team big time: D’s slotted properly, Sek partners up with a rook, G’s end up more solid, offence improves, better transition, D structure, etc

    Klef-Larsson
    Nurse-Sek
    Jones-Russel/Benning/Gravel

    – So good…Nurse would be a stud if he was the 2nd on 2nd pair IMO

  54. OmJo says:

    giddy: I would have put Pastrnak and Draisaitl above Point without a second thought.

    Point has what, one good playoffs and so far an amazing half-season on one of the best teams the NHL has ever seen on his resume? Don’t get me wrong, he’s a fantastic talent, but that reeks of recency bias.

    If hockey should be called goalie then hockey analysis should be called recency bias.

  55. Durag says:

    frjohnk:
    Nurse scoring 1.64 pts/60 with McDavid in 329 minutes
    1.57 pts/60 with RNH in 266 minutes
    1.29 pts/60 with Drai in 325 minutes.

    Thats better than the majority of wingers.

    There are great career options post-hockey for guys who play defence and wing. Look at Strudwick!

  56. OmJo says:

    Durag: Jones is way too high up the batting order right now with Klefbom out, but I wouldn’t have a problem with him regularly on the 3rd pair next year.

    I guess the problem is you also want to shelter Bouchard next year and it’s hard to find cover for both young guys.

    Bouchard should be 1RD next season…

    … in Bakersfield.

  57. OriginalPouzar says:

    Drai got the “last man standing” spot in the Pacific for the all-star game.

  58. OmJo says:

    frjohnk:
    Fucking rights!

    Jason Gregor
    ‏Verified account @JasonGregor
    2m2 minutes ago

    Leon Draisaitl voted in to All Star game along with Jeff Skinner, Kris Letang and Gabriel Landeskog. #NHL

    Can we get Draisaitl to apply for Canadian citizenship so he can play for Canada internationally?

  59. Durag says:

    OmJo,

    I would love to live in a world where the Oilers start next season with 3 RD better than Bouchard, but I’d also love a solid gold turlet.

  60. pitlickdinner says:

    rickithebear:
    We lack strong shooting % fwd depth.
    Eberle for strome for Spooner is a huge reduction in shooting density.
    Lucid not having his bounce back year in shooting density is a huge issue.
    That is 40g our team does not have from the wings.

    here here. shooters, please.

  61. OmJo says:

    frjohnk: We need to add to the good players on the team, not trade them to fill a hole while creating another one.

    One of the complaints I have with Nurse ( and its not him, its the roster) is that he has played too much and I believe this has exposed him at times defensively.

    But because he has played so much, it has lessened the amount of time the 3rd pairing and AHL/Dmen have played, so its the lesser of two evils.

    I see a player still growing.He skates the puck out as well as any Dmen in the league.I believe he is better at passing the puck out than most here believe ( numbers show this)Because of his skating he can play in all disciplines ( 3×3, 5×5, PP, PK) reasonalby well.And his play in the Ozone has improved.This guy is a keeper in my books.

    This ^^^

  62. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: Do we need to talk about Darnell Nurse’s offensive spike? What is it, 16 points in the last 17 games. I’m not sure what the McDavid on/off splits are but, even if they are 100% McDavid on points, production is production.

    Even strength:

    4-5-9 with McDavid (329:07) 1.64 p/60
    1-7-8 without (554:08) 0.87 p/60

    PP:

    1-4-5 with McDavid (42:55) 6.99 p/60
    0-0-0 without (14:42)

  63. DBO says:

    Low cost wingers on expiring deals for picks or prospects of the mid range. Not comfortable with Chia making a deal for 80 cents on the dollar to fill a bigger need. ala every big deal he has made.

    Available UFA’s not gonna break the bank and teams out of it

    – Michael Ferland (Carolina). 26. decent size and speed. He played well last year in Calgary with Gaudreau and Monahan. 12 goals. 108 hits. Be a good LW option for one of the top two lines.

    – Mike Hoffman. (Florida) 30. speed and can score. 20 goals so far. no idea on acquisition cost, but he would fit on LW. You know., something like Cagguila , 12 goals, under reasonable contract and a pick… fuck.

    – Gustav Nyquist (Detroit). 29. solid numbers. can play wing or centre. two way player. he is pricy for salary, so if Detroit is just dumping, then it may not cost much.

  64. godot10 says:

    jtblack:
    Even the Hitchmas Miracle cannot solve the “McDavid OFF” issue.

    40% it remains.

    Hitchcock was near 50% with McDavid off the ice when he had Klefbom.

  65. Dustylegnd says:

    Dom Luszczyszyn Playoff probabilities for the Oil 28%

  66. YKOil says:

    frjohnk: Larsson is UFA in 2021.
    Let Seattle pick him in June 2021.

    He becomes UFA July 1st, 2021.

    Sign him then.

    I think that is the hope as it stands right now.

    Trade Sekera and Russell. Protect Klefbom, Nurse, Jones. Let Larsson go UFA.

    Issue… I don’t think the Oilers have done enough to make it so Larsson wants to come back. That puts a LOT of pressure on Bouchard to be the ‘guy’ on RD.

  67. frjohnk says:

    ArmchairGM: Even strength:

    4-5-9 with McDavid (329:07) 1.64 p/60
    1-7-8 without (554:08) 0.87 p/60

    PP:

    1-4-5 with McDavid (42:55) 6.99 p/60
    0-0-0 without (14:42)

    If it was so easy for players to score with McDavid, all of our wingers would have 10 goals plus.

    This was not directed at you, just wanted to bring this point across.

  68. Jethro Tull says:

    frjohnk,

    So we’re back to compelting other GMs to take our dross for useful players.

    Do we even still have the rights to Omark?

  69. YKOil says:

    JimmyV1965: Panik, B Tanev, Nosek, C WilsonThese are the only guys on that list that I don’t think get overpaid. And I’m not sure these guys solve any problems. Signing UFAs is not the solution.

    I would overpay for Stone. Too good a player not to take that shot. Of course… Lucic/Spooner/Manning contracts kick the living sh%t out of that plan.

  70. Oilin4 says:

    This post is probably going to get me kicked off this forum, or hunted down in some way, but it’s an interesting thought experiment.

    Imagine: Oilers don’t win the McDavid lottery. Therefore, they don’t hire Chiarelli and don’t make his boneheaded moves.

    Top 6F:
    Hall-Nuge-Eberle
    Marner-Draisaitl-Barzal

    Top 4D:
    Klef-XXX hired gun using Larsson’s cap space
    Nurse-XXX hired gun using Russel’s cap space

    No Lucic anchor contract, no Manning contract, no Spooner contract, and no overpay for Kassian. But likely a couple less than ideal but not total disaster decisions along the way.

    Better or worse team?

    I’m not sure it’s better, but the simple fact that it’s even a debate is just more evidence for firing this clown. Chiarelli is so bad he may have built a team that is worse than the one that would be available had we lost the McDavid lottery and not hired this bonehead.

  71. PennersPancakes says:

    kgo: costing us games by the handful

    Im trying to think of instances where hes lost the game. I mean he got burnt by Clifford in LA but tough to blame one goal for a 4-0 loss? He makes rookie mistakes but the rest of the defense makes the same mistakes despite not being rookies?

  72. godot10 says:

    McSorley33:
    Remember how good the refs were in our famous playoff run a few years ago?

    How clean the Ducks played the game.

    For the people that want to move a 6’5 elite skating Dman -with a mean streak. – how
    would you replace that? ( yes, still warts in his game, for sure )

    Evan Bouchard is going to be an elite offensive dman in my book but he is not
    an aggressive in his own zone. Same with Klef not a lot of mean there.

    Which is why a player like Larsson doubles in value in the post-season

    Dog eat Dog – sometimes.

    You want to make Mathew Tkachuk smile, trade Darnell Nurse.

    You know who loves Nurse?

    Ken Hitchcock.

    Exactly, and the Oilers are going to rue the day they signed him to a bridge contract because they didn’t have the cap room to give him duration.

    Nurse is a keeper. Like all players he is imperfect. But Hitch sees a more physical minute munching Bouwmeester. Toughness, physical and mental, that can play competently.

  73. Professor Q says:

    frjohnk:
    Fucking rights!

    Jason Gregor
    ‏Verified account @JasonGregor
    2m2 minutes ago

    Leon Draisaitl voted in to All Star game along with Jeff Skinner, Kris Letang and Gabriel Landeskog. #NHL

    Should not have even been that close.

  74. Oilin4 says:

    Winger the Oilers could target at the deadline: Michael Ferland. Ok possession, good 2/3 winger, and can afford him come deadline time.

  75. YKOil says:

    OmJo: Bouchard should be 1RD next season…

    … in Bakersfield.

    Agreed 100%

    [Edit to add] The Seattle expansion is one where, I think, the Oilers really have to work with the Seattle GM is pay the price to protect the players they want to keep. Pending back issues and physicals I would prefer extending Larsson and making a deal to protect Jones (small sample size alert but Jones does look like he will be the real deal).

  76. HT Joe says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I bet the players appreciate Hitch having their back in public (even while he may be roasting them in private)

    MacT wasn’t adverse to pointing fingers, especially once he was a GM.

    I never liked MacT after his constant public trashing of Penner. I really like Hitchcock’s approach.

  77. HT Joe says:

    OmJo: If hockey should be called goalie then hockey analysis should be called recency bias.

    I’m going to steal that quote some day… gold!

  78. HT Joe says:

    Oilin4: Top 6F:

    Hall-Nuge-Eberle
    Marner-Draisaitl-Barzal

    Top 4D:
    Klef-XXX hired gun using Larsson’s cap space
    Nurse-XXX hired gun using Russel’s cap space

    No Lucic anchor contract, no Manning contract, no Spooner contract, and no overpay for Kassian. But likely a couple less than ideal but not total disaster decisions along the way.

    Better or worse team?

    If MacT were still GM, and we didn’t win the lottery, MacT would have still picked up Talbot, and would have been able to trade the 16 and 33 for Hamilton…

    Hall-Nuge-Eberle
    Marner-Draisaitl-Yakupov

    Top 4D:
    Klef-Hamilton
    Nurse-Jultz

  79. Bling says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Do we need to talk about Darnell Nurse’s offensive spike?What is it, 16 points in the last 17 games.I’m not sure what the McDavid on/off splits are but, even if they are 100% McDavid on points, production is production.

    Personally, I think his production over-represents his true offensive abilities/instincts but, again, production is production and the man is producing.

    He has taken full advantage of the the Klefbom hole in offensive opportunities and, frankly, although he doesn’t “look great out there”, not visually appealing offensively, the points are coming.

    Is he a 40 point d-man?

    Yes.

    Last season, Nurse established himself as a guy who can put up around 25 points without much PP time while being a mediocre to bad distributor of the puck.

    But points are points, and I don’t rate them that highly for D-men. The reason I’m excited by Nurse now — and consider him a bonafide core piece — is the dramatic improvement I’m seeing in a) recognizing the backdoor play, b) outlet passing.

    In SJ, on the Kane goal, Nurse had Kane completely tied up. Puck went in off a skate — nothing you can do there — but last year’s Nurse wouldn’t have tied up Kane in that situation.

    Yesterday, Nurse’s outlet passing was exceptional. He made one pass over three lines, and numerous other smart, short outlet passes. His vision and awareness of where guys are is leaps and bounds ahead of last season.

    One final thought: this guy’s fitness level is off the charts. The entire team was tired yesterday, and Nurse was flying all game (including OT, where he may have gotten faster). Same thing happened in LA. I’m also very impressed by his commitment to improving his skills, as evidenced by his work with Oates over the summer.

    Darnell Nurse, welcome to The Core.

  80. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Who was it that mentioned Jones getting walked on his strong side?
    LT mentioned he got walked by Vatrano.
    And walked by Kyle “wheels” Clifford.
    Is Jones getting walked on his strong side becoming a thing??

  81. vinotintazo says:

    frjohnk: Larsson is UFA in 2021.

    Let Seattle pick him in June 2021.

    He becomes UFA July 1st, 2021.

    Sign him then.

    This why are you guys worried?

  82. Dicky94 says:

    Bling,

    I agree. He should not be involved in any trade discussions. He’s a really good top 4 d man which are hard to come by. He’s a keeper. End of discussion.

  83. elgruntus says:

    hags9k:
    Keep good players…..

    this ^

  84. godot10 says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    Who was it that mentioned Jones getting walked on his strong side?
    LT mentioned he got walked by Vatrano.
    And walked by Kyle “wheels” Clifford.
    Is Jones getting walked on his strong side becoming a thing??

    The first goal was not Jones fault at all. Vatrano came from “left field”…a free runner. Arguably Jones was the person least responsible on the ice for that goal.

    The video makes it unclear who is most responsible. Kassian was the right wing on the play. He was got up ice somehow, and then headed to the bench. His winger Vatrano was free all the way up the ice. The other two forwards, Rieder and Khaira, were puck focused on the Panther with the puck, and neither picked up the free running Vatrano. And then Vatrano and another winger crossed paths in front of Larsson and Larsson went with the other guy.

    It was some combination of the forwards screwing up on that play. And Larsson not warning Jones.

    To blame Jones for the first goal is just completely wrongheaded.

  85. Tapdog says:

    YKOil,

    I see others with the same opinion, just curious. What is Stone’s skating like? Serious question. I know he is a big boy, are we ending up with another Lucic speed demon in a year or two with another massive salary? Is Duchene a better play? He has the same type of numbers?

  86. who says:

    Durag:
    OmJo,

    I would love to live in a world where the Oilers start next season with 3 RD better than Bouchard, but I’d also love a solid gold turlet.

    You are living in that world right now. Larsson, Russell, Jones.
    Which one of these guys is Bouchard better than next fall? He needs to start the year in Bakersfield.
    We finally have enough organizational depth on defense that we don’t have to push 20 year olds on to the NHL roster, and yet some fans continue to call for it.
    Baffling!

  87. texmex says:

    Oilin4,

    Chris Nichols

    @NicholsOnHockey
    Following Following @NicholsOnHockey
    More
    LeBrun: “I believe the asking price right now would be a first-round pick and a prospect for Ferland.” #Canes 1050

  88. OmJo says:

    who: You are living in that world right now. Larsson, Russell,Jones.
    Which one of these guys is Bouchard better than next fall? He needs to start the year in Bakersfield.
    We finally have enough organizational depth on defense that we don’t have to push 20 year olds on to the NHL roster, and yet some fans continue to call for it.
    Baffling!

    If Russell is 2RD next season this team is in trouble, IMO.

  89. Drew says:

    John Chambers:
    Wingers. My kingdom for a pair of savvy NHL wingers.

    This summer’s UFA crop is pretty extensive, and my guess is that GM’s will offer shorter terms because of looming expansion.

    Beyond the top grade: Stone, Duchene, Panarin, Skinner

    There’s a broad tier of quality 2nd and 3rd line wingers who may need to accept lower dollars or term:
    Zuccarello, Eberle, Nelson, Lee, Nyquist, Simmonds, Panik, B Tanev, Dzingel, Nosek, C Wilson.

    There are a few Centres in the mix as well: Brassard, Staal, Kevin Hayes

    Needless to say, whoever the GM is should be poised to clear salary (Dammit Manning), and pick up 2 or 3 of the above-listed players for as low cost as possible.

    I’d trade spooner straight up for Eberle, thoughts?

  90. YKOil says:

    HT Joe: If MacT were still GM, and we didn’t win the lottery, MacT would have still picked up Talbot, and would have been able to trade the 16 and 33 for Hamilton…

    Hall-Nuge-Eberle
    Marner-Draisaitl-Yakupov

    Top 4D:
    Klef-Hamilton
    Nurse-Jultz

    It does make for an interesting rabbit hole. What if the April 2015 through July 2016 timeline changes? Just thinking of the big moves here.

    No PC and McLellan means we add a 2nd and a 3rd.

    Do we still try for Hamilton? Not sure. Interest in Hamilton was, very much so imo, tied to Chia’s time with Boston so it is fair to say that this might never happen. It could have, without pressure from PC Boston may have gone to market with Hamilton and that would have put the Oilers in play for that player, but it is fair to say that this probably doesn’t happen.

    Do we still trade for Reinhart? Sad to say but, given the orders to make the team more competitive right now, there is a good chance this still happens.

    Do we still trade for Talbot? I think so. Everyone knew the Rangers needed to do something with Talbot and the Oilers had the direct line to Sather so this is probably a given.

    Do we still sign Sekera? I think so. The need to be more competitive, with McDavid incoming, required an improvement on defense and Sekera was the best upgrade option available.

    Do we still trade a major asset for a RD (Hall in this case but also consider Eberle)? This is the hardest call to make. I think we do trade for a RD but I don’t think it is a major trade. MacT was pretty conservative as a GM imo and I could see him making a ‘big’ play for a Colin Miller or Mark Pysyk or Alex Petrovic type – none of which would have cost Hall or Eberle (but we do happen to have that extra 2nd and 3rd from not bringing in PC and McLellan).

    Do we still sign Lucic. No. We do not.

    There are some other pieces in there,
    – drafting and development may not improve for one
    – maybe Nelson is more adaptable than McLellan as coach and doesn’t waste away assets McLellan did,
    but those are the biggest.

    The team would be better right now imo (especially without the Strome to Spooner and Manning trades). Without the improvement in draft and develop however maybe the overall future isn’t as bright.

    That said, maybe the Oilers, having been more patient, have a legit shot at McPhee and take it.

    And thinking of that… makes me want to start drinking heavily. For a long, long time.

    sigh

  91. giddy says:

    who: You are living in that world right now. Larsson, Russell,Jones.
    Which one of these guys is Bouchard better than next fall? He needs to start the year in Bakersfield.
    We finally have enough organizational depth on defense that we don’t have to push 20 year olds on to the NHL roster, and yet some fans continue to call for it.
    Baffling!

    Good stuff.

    I also have my hopes still high for Bear. This whole year for him so far has been a bit wacky (paging OP to give an update on his performance thus far), but after last year’s test drive showing I see an NHL player there for sure. Kid didn’t make it this far to give up now.

  92. Pescador says:

    Drew: I’d trade spooner straight up for Eberle, thoughts?

    Nice

  93. Oilin4 says:

    texmex:
    Oilin4,

    Chris Nichols

    @NicholsOnHockey
    Following Following @NicholsOnHockey
    More
    LeBrun: “I believe the asking price right now would be a first-round pick and a prospect for Ferland.” #Canes 1050

    After he gets laughed at in seven consecutive conversations, I imagine the price will come down. 1sts haven’t moved much at the deadline for a long time and it seems every year every GM says they’re going to get a first for each UFA, and then settles for less when nobody is willing to do that.

  94. JimmyV1965 says:

    godot10: The first goal was not Jones fault at all.Vatrano came from “left field”…a free runner.Arguably Jones was the person least responsible on the ice for that goal.

    The video makes it unclear who is most responsible.Kassian was the right wing on the play.He was got up ice somehow, and then headed to the bench.His winger Vatrano was free all the way up the ice.The other two forwards, Rieder and Khaira, were puck focused on the Panther with the puck, and neither picked up the free running Vatrano. And then Vatrano and another winger crossed paths in front of Larsson and Larsson went with the other guy.

    It was some combination of the forwards screwing up on that play. And Larsson not warning Jones.

    To blame Jones for the first goal is just completely wrongheaded.

    Talbot is 100% to blame for the goal. The shot was weak and if went right through him. Pucks should not go through goalies. There may have been a defensive breakdown on the play, but that was an easy save.

  95. giddy says:

    texmex:
    Oilin4,

    Chris Nichols

    @NicholsOnHockey
    Following Following @NicholsOnHockey
    More
    LeBrun: “I believe the asking price right now would be a first-round pick and a prospect for Ferland.” #Canes 1050

    A first and a prospect for a 2nd-3rd line LW rental. I get he’s on a cheap contract but they’re out of their minds there.

    Maybe a 2nd and a C grade prospect, max. And I like Ferland’s play a lot.

  96. JimmyV1965 says:

    texmex:
    Oilin4,

    Chris Nichols

    @NicholsOnHockey
    Following Following @NicholsOnHockey
    More
    LeBrun: “I believe the asking price right now would be a first-round pick and a prospect for Ferland.” #Canes 1050

    Frickin love this. Ferland ain’t going anywhere if that’s the asking price.

  97. texmex says:

    JimmyV1965,

    You all underestimate our boy Chia-Pete!!!!

  98. Drew says:

    rickithebear:
    We lack strong shooting % fwd depth.
    Eberle for strome for Spooner is a huge reduction in shooting density.
    Lucid not having his bounce back year in shooting density is a huge issue.
    That is 40g our team does not have from the wings.

    Ricki I agree as well, nice to see you. hope you are OK

  99. HT Joe says:

    YKOil: It does make for an interesting rabbit hole. What if the April 2015 through July 2016 timeline changes? Just thinking of the big moves here.

    And thinking of that… makes me want to start drinking heavily. For a long, long time.
    sigh

    To be clear, I really find revisiting old moves fascinating. I’m not wallowing here in what could have been (because, you know – no McDavid), but I find it fun to dig the old stuff up and think “huh, neat”.

    I really do think the Oilers would have landed Hamilton if Chia weren’t the GM. Boston made it clear they wouldn’t “help” Chia, even if it meant taking a lesser return from the Flames.

    *EDIT* To clarify, even if the Oilers had won McDavid and MacT was still the GM, I think he still would have pulled the trigger for Hamilton. I just feel it was a given.

  100. Drew says:

    frjohnk: It seems Draisaitl gets dinged because he plays a bunch of minutes with the best player in the game. Very little consideration that when he does not play with McDavid, he usually plays with 3rd/4th liners but still drives a line.

    But Point plays on the best team in the league.

    and Pasta plays on the best line in the league.

    All 3 great players, but Id take Draisaitl as best player here.

    Bias, its a thing
    Oh i agree with you 100%

  101. Durag says:

    who: You are living in that world right now. Larsson, Russell,Jones.
    Which one of these guys is Bouchard better than next fall? He needs to start the year in Bakersfield.
    We finally have enough organizational depth on defense that we don’t have to push 20 year olds on to the NHL roster, and yet some fans continue to call for it.
    Baffling!

    Well, only one of those guys shoots right, but even if we consider Russell and Jones RD, I wouldn’t put money on either of them being better than Bouchard at playing the right side next year.

    I’m not “calling for” a 20 year old on the blueline, but I am accepting it as an eventuality.

  102. BONE207 says:

    Drew: I’d trade spooner straight up for Eberle, thoughts?

    Well since we are talking about exploring rabbit holes…
    Spooner is $3 mill to Ebs $6 mill. So no to that.

    What would be neat to explore is if the Strome trade never happened. I miss that guy for some reason. I thought he worked hard. He had chances that he never buried but he also set up great chances that only stone handed players would waste. Hitchmas miracle & all, he might have blossomed into something more. Good defensively & might have been put on a PP or Connor’s wing. He would have played 10-15 minutes, pushed the unicorns up & allowed them to play a little less but more effectively. Because Oilers…

  103. YKOil says:

    Tapdog:
    YKOil,
    I see others with the same opinion, just curious. What is Stone’s skating like? Serious question. I know he is a big boy, are we ending up with another Lucic speed demon in a year or two with another massive salary? Is Duchene a better play? He has the same type of numbers?

    Not entirely sure how high Stone ranks on the speed and skating scale but I have never heard a bad word about either and have the impression he is above-average in both.

    The key is hockey smarts (of which he has loads) and complete 200 ft game (he is one of the best, having excellent stats, over several years, in regards to his defensive and offensive play).

    I would trade a lot for him if he came over signed. I don’t see a ‘cliff’ in his game so would consider 8 years as well.

    However. Lucic, Spooner, Manning. Oilers are f&*ked. And not in the good way.

  104. YKOil says:

    JimmyV1965: Frickin love this. Ferland ain’t going anywhere if that’s the asking price.

    Chia, “Hold my beer”

  105. --hudson-- says:

    It occurred to me a good comp for Nurse is Matt Dumba, drafted a year earlier in the same spot. Both struggled in their reads/decision making. It took about 200 games for Dumba to establish himself and he played very well in the playoffs when Suter went down.

    Looks like Nurse is on the same timeline.

  106. incubo_nero says:

    Durag,

    Didn’t Jones have good results playing the right side in Bakersfield?

  107. Wilde says:

    I wish there was a way to not play Jones over his head right now.

    He was 8-8 in GF-GA at 5v5 before the last two games, where he’s gone 0-3 in each of them playing with Larsson. They’ve been unlucky in some ways, but also have gone 34-67 (after rounding using score/venue effect adjustment because of the two games with long leading/trailing situations in the SJ/ANA games)

    A big part of the Oilers’ woes in McDavid-off minutes are from not having soft minutes sufficiently devoured this year because of putrid bottom pairings made up of Garrison, Manning, Petrovic, Wideman, Benning, Gravel and a teenager.

    Most good teams have a killer down-lineup at forward that sink the fangs into favourable situations, the Oilers have so few capable guys that they end up actually /losing/ those minutes when they’re the freest minutes to win, AND Edmonton gets an inordinate amount of them because of the elite top-end of the forward group.

    Nashville used Fiala like this at first, Washington used Vrana there, Tampa Bay used Gourde, Anaheim used Kase, San Jose used Meier, etc.

    IDK for current (this year) guys because I haven’t gone through the league looking for them yet, Boyd and Garland look like a couple of them

    (A successful Oilers playoff team in 2020 and 2021 summers would use one of Nuge/Draisaitl + Yamamoto and Kaliyev or Benson there)

    The other ingredient of this is having guys that are good with the puck on their stick in the OZ on the third pairing. Will Butcher does this for the Devils, Auvitu did it when he was here, yadda yadda I’m sure most of you have read me spout off about this many times before.

    A Jones third pairing (with Bouchard?) would help tremendously with this in the future, but we’re putting his development at risk in terms of offensive confidence – messing up pinches and getting walked for goals against has long-term effects on young D in that area I’m sure of it – I realise it’s out of necessity, this is more a critique of management.

    I’m overreacting because of the last two games for sure but I think the notion is valid to a degree.

    It’s also getting hard not to wonder to what level Adam Larsson can elevate a partner. Can he be the better player on a winning 2nd pairing? That’s another unfair thought because he’s paired with a rookie, but he’s paired with a pretty good rookie and they’re at 38% FF; Larsson away from Klef/Jones this year is at 44%. Does a guy who can carry a 2nd pairing to a degree lose to that degree when paired with a above-average 3rd pairing guy?

    Jones is a valuable future, I wish he got the development path he deserves.

  108. leadfarmer says:

    giddy: A first and a prospect for a 2nd-3rd line LW rental. I get he’s on a cheap contract but they’re out of their minds there.

    Maybe a 2nd and a C grade prospect, max. And I like Ferland’s play a lot.

    Thats the asking price now. Its always high hoping to catch a desperate GM. Then they realize no one is going to pay that price and comes down when the trade deadline is looming.

  109. New Improved Darkness says:

    Loved the Spector article with the tart tactician takedown straight from the gilded maw of the Great Golden Dane: Bart Snipersson (no relation to Bart Simpersson).

    The Great Golden Dane is a large, intelligent, and loyal animal, a cross between two extremely popular breeds of dog, the Great Dane and the Golden Retriever. The resulting hybrid is typically quite tolerant of other people and pets, both children and adult. They can be overenthusiastic during their playtime, however, particularly when they are young, and interactions between an immature Great Golden and very young children could result in a few bumps and bruises. Although they appear to be an intimidating guard dog due to their size, they are generally too good-natured to exhibit protective behaviors, although there are exceptions. [wagwalking.com]

    The problem with Spector is tilt. He’s just fine, until he tilts, and then he goes there: the canonical closet Dark Snide.

  110. Drew says:

    frjohnk: It seems Draisaitl gets dinged because he plays a bunch of minutes with the best player in the game. Very little consideration that when he does not play with McDavid, he usually plays with 3rd/4th liners but still drives a line.

    But Point plays on the best team in the league.

    and Pasta plays on the best line in the league.

    All 3 great players, but Id take Draisaitl as best player here.

    Bias, its a thing

    Oilin4:
    This post is probably going to get me kicked off this forum, or hunted down in some way, but it’s an interesting thought experiment.

    Imagine: Oilers don’t win the McDavid lottery. Therefore, they don’t hire Chiarelli and don’t make his boneheaded moves.

    Top 6F:
    Hall-Nuge-Eberle
    Marner-Draisaitl-Barzal

    Top 4D:
    Klef-XXX hired gun using Larsson’s cap space
    Nurse-XXX hired gun using Russel’s cap space

    No Lucic anchor contract, no Manning contract, no Spooner contract, and no overpay for Kassian. But likely a couple less than ideal but not total disaster decisions along the way.

    Better or worse team?

    I’m not sure it’s better, but the simple fact that it’s even a debate is just more evidence for firing this clown. Chiarelli is so bad he may have built a team that is worse than the one that would be available had we lost the McDavid lottery and not hired this bonehead.

    I like this thought exercise, and yes we would be better.

    I absorbed a lot of heat because at the time i believed Pete was doing a poor job, i am not happy to see the current state at all.

  111. who says:

    OmJo: If Russell is 2RD next season this team is in trouble, IMO.

    Really!
    You think Russell at 2RD is the big problem next year?
    Who would you replace him with and how would you get that player?
    The Oilers defense will not be the problem next fall. Lack of scoring and questions in net are the bigger concerns.

  112. HT Joe says:

    who: The Oilers defense will not be the problem next fall. Lack of scoring and questions in net are the bigger concerns.

    Whoah there. It’s the Oilers… defense, scoring depth and goaltendering can all be significant problems. 😀

  113. Alpine says:

    Funny thing is I think Spooner kind of ‘is’ that mythical top six winger we’ve been looking for. I think it was Wilde who had the write up a few days ago about how the Oilers should really try to get this player going, due to his track record of scoring at a very decent rate in Boston.

    If there’s a trade I probably won’t criticize Chia for when it’s all said and done is Strome for Spooner. It has not worked AT ALL, but I think it’s one of the few moves where he’s gotten equal value in return. I liked Strome as an everyday 3rd line pivot who can play 2nd line RW in a pinch. Spooner should probably be an everyday 2nd line LW who can play 1st line LW in a pinch.

    Basically, the team shouldn’t blow its brains out on a trade for a bonafide (I hate this word) winger until they know beyond belief that Spooner can’t play top six. Lucic definitely can’t anymore but Spooner’s got way less miles and has had way less opportunity.

  114. YKOil says:

    Aw crap, look me going all PC.. what I want I want!

    IF Ottawa was vulnerable to losing Stone and IF Ottawa was willing to take Spooner, Manning and Kassian in the deal and IF Stone was up for 8 years at $8 to 8.5 million and IF there was a way to unload Lucic

    Then yes, I would put the 1st, Yamamoto and another 1st/Bouchard on the table.

    The fabled 6 assets for 1 and the player is MINE!!!!! I am just in love with the fact he plays a complete, complete defensive game AND scores 60+ points a year on FREAKING OTTAWA OF ALL TEAMS!

    (every now and then you just have to let the crazy out… but why do I legitimately see this as worthwhile?)

  115. frjohnk says:

    –hudson–: good comp for Nurse is Matt Dumba

    How about Brent Burns?

    2 years ago I said that Nurses floor is Gudbrnason. His ceiling is Burns.

    Big guys do take longer to develop.

    If Minnesota knew that Burns would still develop after draft+8,( also that Heatley would faceplant out of the league so quickly) they wouldnt have traded him.

    Now Burns is one of the outliers for guys that keep developing close to their 30’s.

    But if one is to look at how guys are going to get better as they age. Its by training like a madman off the ice, using a skills coach in the off season to work on his skills and having an skills analyst review and provide feedback on what a guy is doing well/needs work etc are things a player like Nurse is doing that will help.

  116. who says:

    Durag: Well, only one of those guys shoots right, but even if we consider Russell and Jones RD, I wouldn’t put money on either of them being better than Bouchard at playing the right side next year.

    I’m not “calling for” a 20 year old on the blueline, but I am accepting it as an eventuality.

    They were both better at playing the right side this year.
    That said, there is probably going to be improvement in Bouchard, year over year. But that holds true for Jones as well.
    Also, Jones will have 2 years pro experience next fall. Bouchard will have 7 games. I’m guessing Jones is the better player next fall, but you never know. The one thing that Bouchard has going for him is the history of impatience the Oilers have in these matters.

  117. Munny says:

    LT said…

    Aside from his coaching ability, Ken Hitchcock has created a storyline, a sideshow, that gives everyone a glimpse into the day-to-day of this team. It reminds me so much of Craig MacTavish, and I think elevates the experience. The transcript is here.

    Thank you for the link LT.

    That post-game by Hitch is damn near a work of art.

  118. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Re: Nurse vs Klefbom

    I had a look at both of them via various metrics from 17/18 – today.

    I posted it on twitter as the results are more easily read in table form than what I can do here.

    Here’s the link: https://twitter.com/Woodguy55/status/1083765256474615808

    I *may* try to post it here, but its so much info that it can look jumbled and not easy to read in this format.

    Twitter with pics of tables is a much better medium.

    I see that Nurse is better at recovering the puck and driving it North helping offense, and Klefbom has more creativity offensively which shows in PP without CM. Maybe keep them both!

  119. Drew says:

    BONE207: Well since we are talking about exploring rabbit holes…
    Spooner is $3 mill to Ebs $6 mill. So no to that.

    What would be neat to explore is if the Strome trade never happened. I miss that guy for some reason. I thought he worked hard. He had chances that he never buried but he also set up great chances that only stone handed players would waste. Hitchmas miracle & all, he might have blossomed into something more. Good defensively & might have been put on a PP or Connor’s wing. He would have played 10-15 minutes, pushed the unicorns up & allowed them to play a little less but more effectively. Because Oilers…

    The secret to good comedy is that the audience recognizes it as such, I’ll try harder next time.

  120. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Great piece at the Athletic about a SJS vs VGK game that used puck and player tracking tech:

    https://theathletic.com/761837/2019/01/11/nhl-tests-player-tracking-technology-that-could-fundamentally-change-how-we-watch-the-game/

    Bettman said they hope for the tracking technology to be fully implemented for the start of the 2019-20 NHL season.

    Woot!

    Hope the data is public.

    Also,

    The NHL currently tracks approximately 350 events per game when you combine shots, hits, saves, etc. This technology will increase that to about 10,000 events tracked per game.

    Sportlogiq tracks about 4000 events per game

    10,000 is hilariously awesome.

    Its going to take years to figure out what to track but I can’t wait.

  121. OmJo says:

    Elliotte Friedman suggested Carlyle has an “understanding” in his contract that it he’s fired he’ll be joining the Ducks management staff.

    Is that a thing? Is that why the OBC is still around?

  122. Side says:

    OmJo:
    Elliotte Friedman suggested Carlyle has an “understanding” in his contract that it he’s fired he’ll be joining the Ducks management staff.

    Is that a thing? Is that why the OBC is still around?

    No I think what the OBC does is they bring a couple of six packs over to Katz house with some VHS tapes of the Oilers dynasty years.

    After many beers and telling many stories, they have a job available for them in the org.

  123. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    This is crazy.

    They are already developing software that will be almost real time with the game where you can give yourself multiple virtual views of the game, including the players’ view:

    “Right now viewing sports is a really passive experience and the new generation isn’t taking it as well. They don’t want to watch a full game sitting on their couch doing nothing. They want to interact with the content they consume. You can actually interact with the data. You can put your own head in the game, and make yourself score the game-winning goal. There’s a ton of really cool stuff that we can do that video can’t do. Because everything is virtual, everything is possible. It’s really limitless, and that’s how we envision the future of sports.”

    I call dibs on being McDavid!!!

  124. selective sam poll says:

    On the top shelf panarin is not coming because the russian community in edm is not large enough. Skinner likely stays with Buffalo given his chemistry with Eichel and closer to his Toronto home. So that leaves duchesne and stone. Would gladly give up the first pick and pkg for them.

    John Chambers:
    Wingers. My kingdom for a pair of savvy NHL wingers.

    This summer’s UFA crop is pretty extensive, and my guess is that GM’s will offer shorter terms because of looming expansion.

    Beyond the top grade: Stone, Duchene, Panarin, Skinner

    There’s a broad tier of quality 2nd and 3rd line wingers who may need to accept lower dollars or term:
    Zuccarello, Eberle, Nelson, Lee, Nyquist, Simmonds, Panik, B Tanev, Dzingel, Nosek, C Wilson.

    There are a few Centres in the mix as well: Brassard, Staal, Kevin Hayes

    Needless to say, whoever the GM is should be poised to clear salary (Dammit Manning), and pick up 2 or 3 of the above-listed players for as low cost as possible.

  125. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Great piece at the Athletic about a SJS vs VGK game that used puck and player tracking tech:

    https://theathletic.com/761837/2019/01/11/nhl-tests-player-tracking-technology-that-could-fundamentally-change-how-we-watch-the-game/

    Bettman said they hope for the tracking technology to be fully implemented for the start of the 2019-20 NHL season.

    Woot!

    Hope the data is public.

    Also,

    The NHL currently tracks approximately 350 events per game when you combine shots, hits, saves, etc.This technology will increase that to about 10,000 events tracked per game.

    Sportlogiq tracks about 4000 events per game

    10,000 is hilariously awesome.

    Its going to take years to figure out what to track but I can’t wait.

    If the data is public, I’ll be sure to send you some much needed vitamin D and cheezies thru the basement window.

  126. OmJo says:

    who: Really!
    You think Russell at 2RD is the big problem next year?
    Who would you replace him with and how would you get that player?
    The Oilers defense will not be the problem next fall. Lack of scoring and questions in net are the bigger concerns.

    The big problem? No. A problem? Absolutely.

    That $4M cap hit for a 3LD could he used to find solutions for the other problems you mentioned.

    $6M locked away in our 3LD next season with Russell and Manning. Not sure how you fix that problem, to be honest.

    Edit: Buy low on Hamilton?

  127. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I see that Nurse is better at recoveringthe puck and driving it North helping offense, and Klefbom has more creativity offensively which shows in PP without CM. Maybe keep them both!

    It wasn’t a “one or the other” scenario

    Just a comparison

    They’re the two best LHD on the team and its not close.

  128. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Hope the data is public.

    I’m sure the data will be public to start.
    Then once the powers that be figure out which parts are most important, they’ll start making you pay for the best information.

    The first one’s always free.

  129. knighttown says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Re: Nurse vs Klefbom

    I had a look at both of them via various metrics from 17/18 – today.

    I posted it on twitter as the results are more easily read in table form than what I can do here.

    Here’s the link: https://twitter.com/Woodguy55/status/1083765256474615808

    I *may* try to post it here, but its so much info that it can look jumbled and not easy to read in this format.

    Twitter with pics of tables is a much better medium.

    I’ve been one of the toughest on Nurse over the last few years. I’ve tried to explain my complaints but Bam! Ken Hitchcock does it better than I ever could.

    His focus on the ice has widened. It was very narrow when I first came here. He didn’t see the 85 feet very well in the offensive zone but he sees the 85 feet (now). Some of it comes from playing on a 1-3-1 power play where he’s at the top by himself so he’s got to use both sides of the ice. He’s gotten very patient in high-pressured situations.

    This is exactly it. I’ve often stated that he has ECHL-level vision/passing and that sounds harsh but really isn’t meant to be. ECHL is still a good league and he has NHL+ level size and skating.

    But this explanation is simply magic.

    Nurse is starting to read the plays better because he’s seeing all 85 feet.

    Muffin wrister off a face-off play when McDavid and company are funneling to the net? Good play and we scored a goal last night.

    Muffin wrister when there’s no traffic after we’ve cycled for 25 seconds and the defenders are tired? Makes me want to throw my remote.

    The player does the same thing in both scenarios but situational awareness makes one a good play and the other a terrible one.

  130. ArmchairGM says:

    YKOil: Not entirely sure how high Stone ranks on the speed and skating scale but I have never heard a bad word about either and have the impression he is above-average in both.

    The key is hockey smarts (of which he has loads) and complete 200 ft game (he is one of the best, having excellent stats, over several years, in regards to his defensive and offensive play).

    I would trade a lot for him if he came over signed.I don’t see a ‘cliff’ in his game so would consider 8 years as well.

    However.Lucic, Spooner, Manning. Oilers are f&*ked.And not in the good way.

    “Has great hands and the knowledge to go to prime scoring areas. Is deadly from in close, but also has an accurate shot. Also displays great hockey sense on offense and an active stick on defense. Does not always make the best use of his 6-3 frame, and he generally lacks a nasty streak. While he gets to where he needs to be, his skating is below-average for the National Hockey League level.”

    http://sportsforecaster.com/nhl/player/8406

  131. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    frjohnk: If the data is public, I’ll be sure to send you some much needed vitamin D and cheezies thru the basement window.

    Thanks Padre, buy a few cubic yards!

  132. colieo_87 says:

    This team is worse then my ex. So emotional

  133. --hudson-- says:

    frjohnk: How about Brent Burns?

    2 years ago I said that Nurses floor is Gudbrnason. His ceiling is Burns.

    Big guys do take longer to develop.

    If Minnesota knew that Burns would still develop after draft+8,( also that Heatley would faceplant out of the league so quickly) they wouldnt have traded him.

    Now Burns is one of the outliers for guys that keep developing close to their 30’s.

    But if one is to look at how guys are going to get better as they age. Its by training like a madman off the ice, using a skills coach in the off season to work on his skills andhaving an skills analyst review and provide feedback on what a guy is doing well/needs work etc are things a player like Nurse is doing that will help.

    Haven’t thought of that one before, but yes, thats a good one. Probably a more apt comparison because they have a similar frame and less likely to go through the injuries that Dumba has.

    Agree with you that Nurse is doing all the right things to grow his game. It’s a little frustrating to watch the process but I hope we reap the reward.

  134. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    knighttown: I’ve been one of the toughest on Nurse over the last few years.I’ve tried to explain my complaints but Bam! Ken Hitchcock does it better than I ever could.

    His focus on the ice has widened. It was very narrow when I first came here. He didn’t see the 85 feet very well in the offensive zone but he sees the 85 feet (now). Some of it comes from playing on a 1-3-1 power play where he’s at the top by himself so he’s got to use both sides of the ice. He’s gotten very patient in high-pressured situations.

    This is exactly it. I’ve often stated that he has ECHL-level vision/passing and that sounds harsh but really isn’t meant to be.ECHL is still a good league and he has NHL+ level size and skating.

    But this explanation is simply magic.

    Nurse is starting to read the plays better because he’s seeing all 85 feet.

    Muffin wrister off a face-off play when McDavid and company are funneling to the net?Good play and we scored a goal last night.

    Muffin wrister when there’s no traffic after we’ve cycled for 25 seconds and the defenders are tired?Makes me want to throw my remote.

    The player does the same thing in both scenarios but situational awareness makes one a good play and the other a terrible one.

    Great post KT

  135. Side says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Re: Nurse vs Klefbom

    I had a look at both of them via various metrics from 17/18 – today.

    I posted it on twitter as the results are more easily read in table form than what I can do here.

    Here’s the link: https://twitter.com/Woodguy55/status/1083765256474615808

    I *may* try to post it here, but its so much info that it can look jumbled and not easy to read in this format.

    Twitter with pics of tables is a much better medium.

    WG “Don’t @ me: “so you’re saying that…”

    Someone replies to you with “Your take on Nurse is weak”

    I laughed.

  136. ArmchairGM says:

    YKOil:
    Aw crap, look me going all PC.. what I want I want!

    IF Ottawa was vulnerable to losing Stone and IF Ottawa was willing to take Spooner, Manning and Kassian in the deal and IF Stone was up for 8 years at $8 to 8.5 million and IF there was a way to unload Lucic

    Then yes, I would put the 1st, Yamamoto and another 1st/Bouchard on the table.

    The fabled 6 assets for 1 and the player is MINE!!!!!I am just in love with the fact he plays a complete, complete defensive game AND scores 60+ points a year on FREAKING OTTAWA OF ALL TEAMS!

    (every now and then you just have to let the crazy out… but why do I legitimately see this as worthwhile?)

    Two things:

    1. with the current standings it doesn’t make sense to trade futures for a playoff push, especially to the degree you mentioned. Wait until July 1st and get the player for only cash.
    2. 8 years is a looooong time to sign a 27-year-old who has below-average skating ability. I wouldn’t go beyond 5, myself, and probably less. Would he take a 2-year x $9M deal so as to circumvent the expansion draft issues? Of course, you’d still have to find the cap space…

  137. hunter1909 says:

    Hunter1909’s 2019 New Year Emergency Playoff Poll:

    Cancelled

  138. OmJo says:

    For shits and giggles…

    To Boston ($9.425M)
    C Leon Draisaitl ($8.5M)
    RW Jesse Puljujarvi ($0.925M)
    EDM 4th Round Pick 2019

    To Edmonton (7.529)
    RW David Pastrnak ($6.666M)
    LW Jake DeBrusk ($0.863)

    Cap space: $2.23M + $9.425M – $7.529M = $4.126M

    To St. Louis ($4.094)
    EDM 1st Round Pick 2019
    EDM 2nd Round Pick 2020
    LW Michael Ferland ($1.750M)
    LD Darnell Nurse ($3.20M)
    RW Kailer Yamamoto ($0.894M)

    To Edmonton ($13.250M)
    RW Vladamir Tarasenko ($7.500M)
    RD Dougie Hamilton ($5.750M)

    To Carolina ($6.720M)
    EDM 1st Round Pick 2020
    STL 1st Round Pick 2020
    LW Milan Lucic ($6M)
    RD Ethan Bear ($0.720M)
    RD Colton Parayko ($5.500M)

    Salary Cap: $4.126M + $6.720M + $4.094M – $13.250M = $1.690M

    To Philadelphia ($9.170M)
    G Cam Talbot ($4.170M)
    LW Ryan Spooner ($3.100M)
    RD Matt Benning ($1.900M)

    To Edmonton (9.830M)
    LW Wayne Simmonds ($3.980M)
    G Michael Neuvirth ($2.500M)
    RD Radko Gudas ($3.350M)

    Cap Space: $1.690M + $9.170M – $9.830M = $1.030M

    DeBrusk – McDavid – Pastrnak
    Simmonds – Nugent-Hopkins – Tarasenko
    Reider – Khaira – Rattie
    Russell – Brodziak – Kassian

    Klefbom – Larsson
    Jones – Hamilton
    Russell – Gudas

    Koskinen
    Neuvirth

  139. YKOil says:

    ArmchairGM: Two things:
    1. with the current standings it doesn’t make sense to trade futures for a playoff push, especially to the degree you mentioned. Wait until July 1st and get the player for only cash.
    2. 8 years is a looooong time to sign a 27-year-old who has below-average skating ability. I wouldn’t go beyond 5, myself, and probably less. Would he take a 2-year x $9M deal so as to circumvent the expansion draft issues? Of course, you’d still have to find the cap space…

    Yeah, found another piece that said his skating was okay but not anything special. Which basically means there is/could be a cliff. Hockey sense will compensate but my guess would be that we would see it at age 31 or so, i.e. anything over 5 years gets dicey. FTR I do not see this as a Lucic level risk however, Stone’s skating, awareness and other skills are >> Lucic and Stone is still thriving in today’s new/faster game.

    I get the idea of waiting for free agency but part of what I was looking at was unloading bad assets AND not getting into a FA bidding war at the same time.

    That said, if I can get sage advice so quickly, on a message board of all things, isn’t anyone talking sense over at Oiler HQ?

  140. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – Survival without Klef indeed.

    – You hang in there, steal a few games , and when Klef/ Sek get back (or Sek is done and his LTIR gets used once determined).Russell is still better than many of our D: glad he’s back

    Welcome back.

    Subject to something currently unforeseen, Sekera is coming back – I’ve reached out to both Nugent-Bowman and to Gregor who advise he is still skating (not with the team on the road) – Gregor says, he is still strengthening it and could be to AHL on the conditioning sting near the end of the month.

    There is almost no cap space for acquisitions – LTIR relief is going away, we’ve banked almost none and, even when Sekera is activated, we won’t be under the cap by much (we will need to make some small moves at the time given we are a few million in to the relief due to players on regular IR).

  141. YKOil says:

    hunter1909,

    Yes.

    (though I wish I could hedge my bets to when Klefbom comes back and what Sekera will be like when he comes back – if Klefbom wasn’t coming back, then NO)

  142. OriginalPouzar says:

    SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Darnell is likely to hit a career high in goals and points before the break.

    Lots of folks seem to be down (or at least indifferent) to Nurse’s offensive progression since the Klefbom injury but I’m not so sure. His goal last night was an excellent read on his part to jump into the play. There are still warts to his game and maybe its just folks zeroing in on his rushes and there is a distinct lack of flash to his game outside those rushes but he seems full-value for his points.

    Curious to see if he can keep it up once Oscar returns.

    I don’t disagree.

    Curious to see what they do with the PP when Oscar returns.

  143. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    OmJo,

    They probably don’t want him taking inside information to another organization while he’s under contract. Similar to Hitch, they moved him off the bench then into a scouting role.

  144. hunter1909 says:

    OmJo:
    For shits and giggles…

    To Boston ($9.425M)
    C Leon Draisaitl ($8.5M)
    RW Jesse Puljujarvi ($0.925M)
    EDM 4th Round Pick 2019

    To Edmonton (7.529)
    RW David Pastrnak ($6.666M)
    LW Jake DeBrusk ($0.863)

    Cap space: $2.23M + $9.425M – $7.529M = $4.126M

    To St. Louis ($4.094)
    EDM 1st Round Pick 2019
    EDM 2nd Round Pick 2020
    LW Michael Ferland ($1.750M)
    LD Darnell Nurse ($3.20M)
    RW Kailer Yamamoto ($0.894M)

    To Edmonton ($13.250M)
    RW Vladamir Tarasenko ($7.500M)
    RD Dougie Hamilton ($5.750M)

    To Carolina ($6.720M)
    EDM 1st Round Pick 2020
    STL 1st Round Pick
    LW Milan Lucic ($6M)
    RD Ethan Bear ($0.720M)

    Salary Cap: $4.126M + $6.720M + $4.094M – $13.250M = $1.690M

    To Philadelphia ($9.170M)
    G Cam Talbot ($4.170M)
    LW Ryan Spooner ($3.100M)
    RD Matt Benning ($1.900M)

    To Edmonton (9.830M)
    LW Wayne Simmonds ($3.980M)
    G Michael Neuvirth ($2.500M)
    RD Radko Gudas ($3.350M)

    Cap Space: $1.690M + $9.170M – $9.830M = $1.030M

    DeBrusk – McDavid – Pastrnak
    Simmonds – Nugent-Hopkins – Tarasenko
    Reider – Khaira – Rattie
    Russell – Brodziak – Kassian

    Klefbom – Larsson
    Jones – Hamilton
    Russell – Gudas

    Koskinen
    Neuvirth

    Good teams keep their good players(Drai, Nurse) unless they’re trading for highly specific reasons. Sather used to be a grand master of this art.

    Nurse, who’s finally starting to look like a player leaves for I assume Dougie Hamilton, dressing room cancer and washed out Flame?

    Beam me up Scotty.

  145. JimmyV1965 says:

    ArmchairGM: Two things:

    1. with the current standings it doesn’t make sense to trade futures for a playoff push, especially to the degree you mentioned. Wait until July 1st and get the player for only cash.
    2. 8 years is a looooong time to sign a 27-year-old who has below-average skating ability. I wouldn’t go beyond 5, myself, and probably less. Would he take a 2-year x $9M deal so as to circumvent the expansion draft issues? Of course, you’d still have to find the cap space…

    If Skinner is looking for $9 mill, Stone will get at least the same. And I would expect the term starts at five years, but probably goes seven. I’m a broken record here, but getting players for cash never works, unless you’re getting the second tier guys. Unfortunately, the Oilers need at least one top tier player.

  146. OriginalPouzar says:

    John Chambers:
    Wingers. My kingdom for a pair of savvy NHL wingers.

    This summer’s UFA crop is pretty extensive, and my guess is that GM’s will offer shorter terms because of looming expansion.

    Beyond the top grade: Stone, Duchene, Panarin, Skinner

    There’s a broad tier of quality 2nd and 3rd line wingers who may need to accept lower dollars or term:
    Zuccarello, Eberle, Nelson, Lee, Nyquist, Simmonds, Panik, B Tanev, Dzingel, Nosek, C Wilson.

    There are a few Centres in the mix as well: Brassard, Staal, Kevin Hayes

    Needless to say, whoever the GM is should be poised to clear salary (Dammit Manning), and pick up 2 or 3 of the above-listed players for as low cost as possible.

    2-3 of the UFAs? Geez, I’m not sure we’ll be able to afford one.

    Yes, moving salary – that would be great but maybe easier said than done.

    Sure, if we can move Russell and Sekera and replace them on the cap with Jones and one of Bouchard, Bear, Lagesson, Persson, Berglund – that opens up a ton of cap space but I’m not so sure it happens (and I’m not so sure they want to move Russell and maybe, just maybe, Sekera is back to his old self and we don’t want to move him).

  147. OriginalPouzar says:

    rickithebear:
    People keep talking Seattle expansion.
    June 2021.
    Any player 24+ and older will be 27+ ufa eligible.
    Expired contracts ufa,s
    RNH
    Spooner
    Kassian
    Brodziak
    Chiasson
    Larsson
    Russell
    Sekera
    Manning
    Talbot
    Koskinen
    Hope we can get Larsson extended for 3-5 yr

    24+ yr RFA,s
    Reider
    Rattie
    Khaira
    Gambardella
    Vessel
    Benning
    Persson
    Starred

    Current players under contract on exp draft day.
    Mcdavid
    Draisaitl
    Lucic
    Klefbom
    Hopefully lucic is gone

    U24 Rfas
    Puljujarvi
    Yamamoto
    Benson
    Hebig
    Marody
    Vesey
    Nurse
    Jones
    Lagesson
    Bear
    Skinner
    Wells

    Unsigned RFA
    Berglund
    Kemp

    ELC are unprotected.
    Signed ELC
    Maksimov
    Safin
    Bouchard
    Samakourov

    Unsigned ELC
    McLeod

    7 fwds
    Mcdavid, Draisaitl, Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, benson,
    ELC Maximov, McLeod, Safin
    3 D
    Larsson, Klefbom, Nurse
    ELC Bouchard, Samakourov
    1G
    Skinner

    4 fwds
    Mcdavid, Draisaitl, Puljujarvi, Yamamoto
    Maximov, McLeod, Savin
    4D
    Larsson, Klefbom, Nurse, Jones
    Bouchard, samakourov
    1 G
    Skinner

    Lucic is a must protect – yes, we “must” move him but, at this point, he’s on the roster.

    Nuge will, hopefully, be re-signed and therefore in need of protection.

  148. OmJo says:

    hunter1909,

    IMO Pastrnak and Draisaitl are approximately equal.

    Nurse for Tarasenko. Lucic and Bear for Hamilton (lol). Is Dougie Hamilton a locker room cancer though?

  149. OriginalPouzar says:

    YKOil: I am mixed on this.Glad he has stepped up but believe most any d-man, with competency could be getting most of those points.

    So, his next contract will be for $5.5 million+ because Sekera/Klefbom were both injured.Yet he isn’t as good as either one of the two (injuries notwithstanding).

    Except for Klefbom’s contract, the Oilers rarely benefit when it comes to contract ‘timing’.

    He’s got another year after this so there will be lots of time to see how he produces with Klefbom (and Sekera or replacement) in the lineup.

  150. OriginalPouzar says:

    dustrock:
    Nurse really turning it around, great time to sell high on him.

    Perhaps the only non-Nuge player we could possibly sell high on.

    Depends on Sekera and whether you think Jones is really ready for full-time work, but maybe Nurse is the guy to move in the offseason to improve RHD or scoring winger.

    Jones looks good with the puck, in transition, skating it, etc., however, we are now seeing him struggle, without the puck – of course, he’s playing top 4 minutes as a 21 year old with 12 NHL games. Would he struggle as much with true third pairing minutes? I’m not sure but he’s making a large mistake at our blue line at least once per game (for 3 in a row now) that has ended up in our net.

    Nope, I’m not down on Jones at all – he’s vastly exceeding expectations right now, however, he’s been asked to play WAY above his pay-grade and I don’t think we can “count on him” for top 4 minutes next year – maybe not even 3rd pairing (although I would posit he is likely close to ready for legit, every day 3rd pairing minutes).

  151. OriginalPouzar says:

    frjohnk: Larsson is UFA in 2021.

    Let Seattle pick him in June 2021.

    He becomes UFA July 1st, 2021.

    Sign him then.

    I stand to be correct on this, however, with pending UFAs, I think how it works is:

    – Vegas is able to sign pending UFAs prior to the expansion draft and, if they do, that counts as their player taken from the team – so they could sign Adam Larsson (after a certain date)

    – Vegas could technically pick a pending UFA in the draft, however, if the player doesn’t sign, he still becomes a UFA – they would never do this.

  152. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Alpine: Basically, the team shouldn’t blow its brains out on a trade for a bonafide (I hate this word) winger until they know beyond belief that Spooner can’t play top six. Lucic definitely can’t anymore but Spooner’s got way less miles and has had way less opportunity.

    The same case could have been made about trying Strome as a winger before trading him for a winger.

  153. OriginalPouzar says:

    incubo_nero:
    frjohnk,

    I thought the expansion rules stated that each team had to make available “roster” players. As an impending UFA, Larsson wouldn’t qualify and so Seattle wouldn’t pick him. But as with Vegas expansion, Seattle may have advance negotiation window with the UFAs so Larsson could be gone regardless AND we lose another player.

    I don’t think so on the last part – I think if they sign a pending UFA, that player is considered the player “picked” from his former team.

    I could be wrong, mind you.

  154. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    This is crazy.

    They are already developing software that will be almost real time with the game where you can give yourself multiple virtual views of the game, including the players’ view:

    “Right now viewing sports is a really passive experience and the new generation isn’t taking it as well. They don’t want to watch a full game sitting on their couch doing nothing. They want to interact with the content they consume. You can actually interact with the data. You can put your own head in the game, and make yourself score the game-winning goal. There’s a ton of really cool stuff that we can do that video can’t do. Because everything is virtual, everything is possible. It’s really limitless, and that’s how we envision the future of sports.”

    I call dibs on being McDavid!!!

    I will be Lucic. That way I will have time to process everything that is going on 🙂

    Very Cool Stuff !!

  155. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: Even strength:

    4-5-9 with McDavid (329:07) 1.64 p/60
    1-7-8 without (554:08) 0.87 p/60

    PP:

    1-4-5 with McDavid (42:55) 6.99 p/60
    0-0-0 without (14:42)

    Thanks – how/where are you able to find this info? I can’t seem to figure out how to get it from NST or Corsica. I can get lots of “on ice” metrics on NST for WOWY but not P/60.

  156. OriginalPouzar says:

    who: You are living in that world right now. Larsson, Russell,Jones.
    Which one of these guys is Bouchard better than next fall? He needs to start the year in Bakersfield.
    We finally have enough organizational depth on defense that we don’t have to push 20 year olds on to the NHL roster, and yet some fans continue to call for it.
    Baffling!

    Not to mention that each of the following should be in the conversation for 3RD next season (in addition to Bouchard): Bear, Berglund, Persson.

    The organization should be able to give Bouchard a proper and realistic development path – will they?

  157. frjohnk says:

    OriginalPouzar: Thanks – how/where are you able to find this info? I can’t seem to figure out how to get it from NST or Corsica.I can get lots of “on ice” metrics on NST for WOWY but not P/60.

    You may need to manual calculate the numbers you want.

    There is a tab that is usually preset to on ice. You can change it to individual. You may need to search for a bit to find what you want but it’s there.

  158. OriginalPouzar says:

    giddy: Good stuff.

    I also have my hopes still high for Bear. This whole year for him so far has been a bit wacky (paging OP to give an update on his performance thus far), but after last year’s test drive showing I see an NHL player there for sure. Kid didn’t make it this far to give up now.

    I was gone for 10 days over the holidays so probably missed a few games but, yes, after a rocky start, Bear has now started to settle in and, with Jones in the NHL, has received more minutes including more PP minutes. His goal share is among the tops among the D and he’s starting to produce more regularly, however, from what I’ve seen, his skating remains poor and I think that could be a limiting factor at the NHL level for him – some can adjust for it but he still has troubles defending the rush, on puck retrievals, etc.

  159. Bank Shot says:

    Some Blues fan offered Tarasenko and Edmundson for RNH and Nurse.

    Do you does it?

  160. Pescador says:

    New Improved Darkness:
    Loved the Spector article with the tart tactician takedown straight from the gilded maw of the Great Golden Dane: Bart Snipersson (no relation to Bart Simpersson).

    The problem with Spector is tilt. He’s just fine, until he tilts, and then he goes there: the canonical closet Dark Snide.

    Puljujarvi = Golden Dane
    He’s an adorable juvenile
    Hopefully someday, an attack dog
    Sic Balls Chopper!

  161. Durag says:

    Bank Shot:
    Some Blues fan offered Tarasenko and Edmundson for RNH and Nurse.

    Do you does it?

    Yes. It hurts, but Tarasenko is what the Oilers need. Plus the novelty of trading 3 #1 picks in 3 years is fun.

  162. leadfarmer says:

    4 trades today, none involving Chia.
    I’m getting scared

  163. OriginalPouzar says:

    Alpine:
    Funny thing is I think Spooner kind of ‘is’ that mythical top six winger we’ve been looking for. I think it was Wilde who had the write up a few days ago about how the Oilers should really try to get this player going, due to his track record of scoring at a very decent rate in Boston.

    If there’s a trade I probably won’t criticize Chia for when it’s all said and done is Strome for Spooner. It has not worked AT ALL, but I think it’s one of the few moves where he’s gotten equal value in return. I liked Strome as an everyday 3rd line pivot who can play 2nd line RW in a pinch. Spooner should probably be an everyday 2nd line LW who can play 1st line LW in a pinch.

    Basically, the team shouldn’t blow its brains out on a trade for a bonafide (I hate this word) winger until they know beyond belief that Spooner can’t play top six. Lucic definitely can’t anymore but Spooner’s got way less miles and has had way less opportunity.

    I have been pushing for him to get some real time in the top 6 for weeks now.

    I don’t see how putting him with Joe G. and Kyle Brodziak sets him or the line up for success.

  164. godot10 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Great piece at the Athletic about a SJS vs VGK game that used puck and player tracking tech:

    https://theathletic.com/761837/2019/01/11/nhl-tests-player-tracking-technology-that-could-fundamentally-change-how-we-watch-the-game/

    Bettman said they hope for the tracking technology to be fully implemented for the start of the 2019-20 NHL season.

    Woot!

    Hope the data is public.

    Also,

    The NHL currently tracks approximately 350 events per game when you combine shots, hits, saves, etc.This technology will increase that to about 10,000 events tracked per game.

    Sportlogiq tracks about 4000 events per game

    10,000 is hilariously awesome.

    Its going to take years to figure out what to track but I can’t wait.

    GMoney to Woodguy: “We’re going to need a bigger computer.”

  165. godot10 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    This is crazy.

    They are already developing software that will be almost real time with the game where you can give yourself multiple virtual views of the game, including the players’ view:

    “Right now viewing sports is a really passive experience and the new generation isn’t taking it as well. They don’t want to watch a full game sitting on their couch doing nothing. They want to interact with the content they consume. You can actually interact with the data. You can put your own head in the game, and make yourself score the game-winning goal. There’s a ton of really cool stuff that we can do that video can’t do. Because everything is virtual, everything is possible. It’s really limitless, and that’s how we envision the future of sports.”

    I call dibs on being McDavid!!!

    I get dibs on Russell’s snow angels.

  166. godot10 says:

    selective sam poll:
    On the top shelf panarin is not coming because the russian community in edm is not large enough. Skinner likely stays with Buffalo given his chemistry with Eichel and closer to his Toronto home. So that leaves duchesne and stone. Would gladly give up the first pick and pkg for them.

    Have you seen Dylan Cozens play?

  167. godot10 says:

    Klima’s_Bucket: I’m sure the data will be public to start.
    Then once the powers that be figure out which parts are most important, they’ll start making you pay for the best information.

    The first one’s always free.

    If they want to find data talent, they should let it be public, see who in the crowd produces interesting tools and analysis, and then let the teams poach them.

  168. Melvis says:

    jtblack: Because everything is virtual, everything is possible. It’s really limitless, and that’s how we envision the future of sports.”

    Err…that’s how I envision the future of porn.

  169. jtblack says:

    godot10: Have you seen Dylan Cozens play?

    Cozens is currently 8th in WHL scoring as a 17 year old.

    For perspective Ryan Smyth finished 15th in League Scoring as a 17 year old.

    Cozens has some sandpaper and grit to his game also, not just a scorer. Great on the Forecheck.

  170. jtblack says:

    Melvis: Err…that’s how I envision the future of porn.

    I didn’t write that????????????

  171. Melvis says:

    jtblack,

    Maybe I could’ve gone to the source;-)

  172. Wilde says:

    knighttown: But this explanation is simply magic.

    He does this a lot. I’ll have a thought kicking around in my head (or I try writing about it) and then Ken Hitchcock absolutely kills it, using half the words; sending the message to twice the people (in terms of readability/listenability).

    It’s daunting. I have over 40 years to catch up. Still daunting.

    Woodguy v2.0: Bettman said they hope for the tracking technology to be fully implemented for the start of the 2019-20 NHL season.
    Woot!
    Hope the data is public.

    I don’t think the data is gonna be public except for select through select channels, like Berkshire sharing private data.

    Woodguy v2.0:
    “Right now viewing sports is a really passive experience and the new generation isn’t taking it as well. They don’t want to watch a full game sitting on their couch doing nothing. They want to interact with the content they consume. You can actually interact with the data. You can put your own head in the game, and make yourself score the game-winning goal. There’s a ton of really cool stuff that we can do that video can’t do. Because everything is virtual, everything is possible. It’s really limitless, and that’s how we envision the future of sports.”

    WARNING, ALL: WHEN I WAS WRITING THIS POST, I HAD NO IDEA I WAS GOING TO GO THIS LONG ON IT. I APOLOGISE AND SUGGEST IF YOU HAVE ANYTHING BETTER TO DO, SCROLL PAST IT

    That first sentence is the naked truth, and is a sign that the NHL knows certain important things at least.

    I’m almost always listening to (no vocals) music or low-density podcasts whose hosts and style I’m already familiar with while I watch the games on mute, except for Oilers playoff games.

    Also, and this is a bit of a dark truth, but they could make a ton of money offering remote, microtransactional style gambling on things like who’s going to cover the most distance over the game in terms of skating, which team is going to pass the most total distance, which player is going to complete the longest pass, who’s going to shoot the hardest shot, etc.

    I’d theorise that while Millenials/Gen Z don’t go out to eat as much, or shop at brick & mortar stores, they likely shop online a ton more, where there’s less buffers between impulse and action for a number of reasons.

    On top of that is the micro part of microtransactions. For those who don’t know, microtransactions are most commonly known as a part of the modern video game industry, developers will create and sell additional content to people who have already bought the game, commonly extensions of the plot of a singe-player game, and cosmetic additions in online multiplayer games. Stuff like exclusive costumes that other players can see, that are obviously very popular in children (and young adults), the psychology there being akin to kids buying Pokémon cards.

    The low cost (micro) of the products, combined with the ease of access – your Paypal/Credit Card information is already signed in, you’re a few buttons, 15 seconds and 2-5 dollars away – plus the cool kid factor combine for a richening combination.

    Then, the gasoline on the fire: add gambling.

    Just like with trading cards, a product often referred to as loot-boxes act as a mystery box, selling chances at items of various rarity, always and inevitably becoming traded for real-world money.

    An example in Counter Strike:Global Offensive (an online shooter game averaging hundreds of thousands of players) is the M9 Bayonet Crimson Web, a knife the player can wield that sells for $5900 USD.

    So, of course, underage gambling occurs (the e-economy of these games exist in a loophole in gambling laws that obviously did not anticipate this phenomenon) resulting in ongoing government orders and straight up bans by the Netherlands and Belgium in addition to tons of lawsuits. The billions of dollars Valve Corporation is now worth tilts the scales of justice in that regard.

    Anyways, obviously literal underage gambling isn’t going to occur but 18 to 25-year-old male brains aren’t exactly completely developed in terms of the whole risk management thing. Not only is the interactivity going to be attractive to them, but combine everything else (remote access, convenient price) and you’ve massive revenues to tap into, albeit through psychic and social vulnerabilities.

    While I’m already spilling my bullshit thoughts to you all, I’ll also mention another hoop that’ll be easier to jump through: Are that many people really going to be nerdy enough to be ton micro-stats and the like?

    The answer is yes. Here’s more amateur social theory.

    Everyone’s a nerd now. Everyone’s way, way further into their hobbies than they were before, Especially young people. Here’s some examples-

    – Makeup. Young women are way, way better (or just more laborious and knowledgeable) about their makeup now. Between tutorials on YouTube giving what used to be formal training for aspirational professionals to anyone with internet access and skincare/makeup forums for Q&A or discussions helping each person with their unique traits that require unique products and techniques (often based on ethnicities/allergies/genetic, physical traits) the average Jane today is much closer to a professional than yesteryear. One time I was restringing and adjusting the bridge on a friends acoustic guitar and they (three girls) talked about/did their makeup for the entire time (this was before I had enough practice to do these things quickly) and that shit was legit science.

    – Musicianship and music fandom. I don’t think there’s more or better musicians, or more people like music, but the effect of being able to look up a tab of any song ever and to listen to every song by anyone ever is real. There’s still finite creativity in a generation and few people without supervision will have the amount of discipline to learn to play properly and practice properly, but the breadth of knowledge in terms of style and genre especially is greater than it was before. For fans, it’s ten times easier to both listen to new music, and learn more about specific musician’s lives, going from hard copy (tabloid) journalism to online.

    Any hobbies in general, more people are going more go deep on. When I was in high school I wandered to another group of people at a party and it was over a dozen people talking about a particular Harry Potter based browser game.

    It’s a kind of radicalisation of interest. Just like social media and the internet had aided in political radicalisation – a study was done in Germany displaying a close correlation of Facebook use and anti-immigrant violence – an average hobbyist who is involved in an online community is likely immersed much further into that universe than before. Again, not necessarily more skilled, but further immersed.

    So yes, I think that hoop is easily jumped through and yes, this development has a chance to be an absolute firecracker and a few more people are going to own a few more private islands than before.

  173. godot10 says:

    Bank Shot:
    Some Blues fan offered Tarasenko and Edmundson for RNH and Nurse.

    Do you does it?

    No way in hell.

  174. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Bank Shot:
    Some Blues fan offered Tarasenko and Edmundson for RNH and Nurse.

    Do you does it?

    I would for sure.

    Team needs to be adding not swapping however

  175. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: It wasn’t a “one or the other” scenario

    Just a comparison

    They’re the two best LHD on the team and its not close.

    A healthy Sekera would place himself right in there.

    We may or may not see that player again.

  176. leadfarmer says:

    godot10: GMoney to Woodguy: “We’re going to need a bigger computer.”

    So will Melvis for porn

  177. OmJo says:

    godot10: I get dibs on Russell’s snow angels.

    Beat me to it lol

    What better way to see the quality of the ice

  178. commonfan29 says:

    I’m generally all for blaming Chia for just about everything, but thinking about it I’m not sure him being the GM was the only reason that Hamilton ended up in Calgary. After yet another lottery win, this time for the biggest prize of all, I think most teams were probably pretty bitter.

    The idea of handing us the exact player we needed to really put it all together might have been too much for the Bruins, no matter who they were dealing with.

  179. dangilitis says:

    Jethro Tull,

    If they pass COL and/or MIN, in spite of loss of Klefbom, Sekera, Russell for significant stretches, I would argue we’re not a shitty team. But I don’t think I see it happening, this edition is just treading water.

  180. Wilde says:

    Does anyone remember if Joe Gambardella made a boo-boo last night?

    His first game he gave the puck away and then stopped seeing ice, last night he played like three minutes but I don’t remember if he did anything wrong

  181. giddy says:

    Wilde,

    Awesome post. To a much lesser extent, I was thinking in the similar vein. I took an interesting “Business of Hockey” class during my undergrad at the U of A, which mentioned similar things the NHL is looking into as far as content consumption. How many of us when watching an Oilers game, will instantly pop open Twitter during a commercial break to see what others are saying about the game? Or between whistles? “Hockey Twitter” now even has its own commercials. Even the hockey blogosphere is massive–this place hasn’t received 800,000 comments by only a handful of people ever coming here (albeit, some of you sure make up a big % of total posts lol). HFBoards is one of the largest forums in the entire internet.

    Fans across the board, not just the fanatics, are clamoring for content related to their teams+sport to consume from anywhere. There is big money to be made in all of that.

    The gambling and MTX angle, that’s a brilliant way for the league to move forward. That said, I hate MTX so I sure hope none of that becomes the norm. Reason why I never got into HUT in the NHL games.

  182. ArmchairGM says:

    JimmyV1965: but getting players for cash never works

    Yes, but the suggested scenario was to pay assets (picks and prospects) in full and then STILL having to pay the cash. I suggested just paying the cash at the expense of a (likely unsuccessful) run at the last wildcard spot.

  183. McSorley33 says:

    Bank Shot,

    Some Blues fan offered Tarasenko and Edmundson for RNH and Nurse.

    Do you does it?
    ***************************************************************
    Not me.

    Klefbom – Larsson
    Nurse – Bouchard.

    Coming to a Theatre near you….Fall of 2021

  184. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: Thanks – how/where are you able to find this info? I can’t seem to figure out how to get it from NST or Corsica.I can get lots of “on ice” metrics on NST for WOWY but not P/60.

    http://naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20182019&thruseason=20182019&stype=2&sit=ev&stdoi=std&rate=y&v=t&playerid=8477498

    “Individual” “Rates” and “Teammates” are the key words you need. for the “without” numbers, I just took the total from the player summary and deducted the “with McDavid” numbers.

  185. ArmchairGM says:

    Bank Shot:
    Some Blues fan offered Tarasenko and Edmundson for RNH and Nurse.

    Do you does it?

    This is going to sound crazy, but I’m not sure I would trade RNH for Tarasenko straight up.

  186. Bank Shot says:

    ArmchairGM: This is going to sound crazy, but I’m not sure I would trade RNH for Tarasenko straight up.

    You’re right. That does sound crazy. lol

  187. Professor Q says:

    OriginalPouzar: I don’t think so on the last part – I think if they sign a pending UFA, that player is considered the player “picked” from his former team.

    I could be wrong, mind you.

    No, you are correct. That’s why the expansion team gets a week head start on UFAs.

  188. --hudson-- says:

    Wilde,

    Nice thought piece!

    I would argue that the NHL should make the data public as they do with the current data they publish. Making the data available could actually increase the amount of gambling as people feel they can develop models to earn money. More bets will be good for the NHL.

    However I imagine they continue to prevent sites like naturalstattrick or corsica from making money off of the data. So third parties can’t share the data and make money off of it and they may keep the API private so most of the traffic goes to NHL.com.

    I have mixed feelings on microtransactions, those free to play games are not the same art form, but it is interesting to have the critical mass of players in the communities.

  189. Professor Q says:

    ArmchairGM: This is going to sound crazy, but I’m not sure I would trade RNH for Tarasenko straight up.

    Price and age factors?

  190. drglen says:

    so no trades today then? No activations? I still think Khaira plus plus is on the block.

    looks like Leon made the allstar team. Yay leon.

  191. Professor Q says:

    Melvis: Err…that’s how I envision the future of porn.

    As did Aldous Huxley in Brave New World (and later on, Philip K. Dick in his stories, and eventually Blade Runner).

  192. who says:

    OmJo: The big problem? No. A problem? Absolutely.

    That $4M cap hit for a 3LD could he used to find solutions for the other problems you mentioned.

    $6M locked away in our 3LD next season with Russell and Manning. Not sure how you fix that problem, to be honest.

    Edit: Buy low on Hamilton?

    That 4 million cap hit is currently our 2RD.
    And I don’t see anything better on the horizon for next fall.
    The whole key to building a good team is to only move players out when you have an adequate replacement. The Oilers were looking for a 2RD when they signed Russell and they have not found an adequate replacement to this date.
    I wouldn’t be surprised if Russell finishes his current contract in Edmonton. 1 more year at 2RD and then 1 year babysitting someone on the 3rd pairing.
    Buying low on Dougie Hamilton does not seem like a realistic plan to replace him. Neither does your 4 team, 20 player trade proposal.

  193. Richard S.S. says:

    Is Caleb Jones a 1st Pairing D? I think he can be very soon if not right away. Is he a #1D? He very well could be.

  194. Bank Shot says:

    Richard S.S.:
    Is Caleb Jones a 1st Pairing D? I think he can be very soon if not right away. Is he a #1D?He very well could be.

    He doesn’t look like one to me.

  195. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    – I heard rumblings of a “set-back” re: Sek.

    – the bigger point though his long-term injuries have hampered the team. 2 years where his 5.5m salary on the books and come game 50+ we have no idea which sek we have

  196. ArmchairGM says:

    Professor Q: Price and age factors?

    That and Tarasenko’s production has been in decline for several years now. Last year he and RNH were basically even (points/game), this year Nuge is outproducing him significantly. Last year Tarasenko had 79% off zone starts vs 54% for RNH.

    Consider positioning too – Nugent-Hopkins can play any forward position and PK, the same is not true of Tarasenko.

  197. ArmchairGM says:

    Bank Shot: You’re right. That does sound crazy. lol

    Tarasenko’s arrows are all pointing downward, RNH’s are going up. Don’t have time to disect the numbers now, but I think they’ll surprise you if you do a direct comp.

  198. dustrock says:

    I don’t want to trade good players, but Chiarelli has created so many holes I’m not sure who else we could sell high on besides Nurse.

    I’m talking about perceived value and the fact that the Oilers habitually wait too long on guys.

    If we’re loaded anywhere, it’s on LHD.

    I’m just saying if you think Sekera and Klefbom are long-term healthy (and we have to ask that question about Klefbom, unfortunately) and you have Jones, Lagesson, etc coming up, do you sell Nurse for an offensive winger or better RHD?

  199. workaroundaccount says:

    Richard S.S.:
    Is Caleb Jones a 1st Pairing D? I think he can be very soon if not right away. Is he a #1D?He very well could be.

    No, he’s probably just another one that we overhype. Marincin, Davidson, Benning. I like him, but let’s just dial it back a touch with this one.

  200. who says:

    workaroundaccount: No, he’s probably just another one that we overhype. Marincin, Davidson, Benning. I like him, but let’s just dial it back a touch with this one.

    Who knows what he will turn into? But he already exhibits better skating and puck skills than any of these guys.

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