Copperhead Road

by Lowetide

You can’t make one thin dime defending Peter Chiarelli in this town, but I’ll say this: If there was a trade out there for a scoring forward, he’d have pulled the trigger by now.

Of course, the Oilers are here via a large number of decisions that collectively downgraded offensive options, and that’s on management. The Griffin Reinhart trade has been talked to death, but I think last night we saw other signs of previous decisions coming back to bite the team. As an example: Conor Garland’s two goals. He’s a fifth round pick from 2015, an enormous draft pool that now boasts 74 men who have played in at least one NHL game. To give you an idea about how impressive that number is, the 2014 draft—with a full year more on the books—has 73 NHL men. The 2014 draft’s NHL players average 97 games, 19 goals and 45 points. The 2015 draft’s NHL players average 72 games, 14 goals and 37 points, and it’s only going to get more impressive from here.

Connor McDavid (253, 114-209-323), Mathew Barzal (127, 35-91-126), Jonas Siegenthaler (18, 0-4-4), Christian Wolanin (18, 3-4-7), Caleb Jones (13, 1-3-4), Ethan Bear (18, 1-3-4) were all chosen with Oilers selections and have played in the NHL in the years since 2015. The counter argument is always “they wouldn’t have taken Barzal anyway” and that’s fine, but the picks the team reportedly targeted with the Reinhart picks (Joel Eriksson Ek and Brandon Carlo) have also played in the NHL.

The problem is, you develop a past. Coming four years after Connor McDavid was drafted, the Oilers are still getting beaten to the punch by teams who kept those 2015 picks and then developed them.

In hockey procurement, you can’t go fast enough to get there early.

THE ATHLETIC

The Athletic Edmonton is going to bring it all season long. Proud to be part of a lineup that is ready to cover the coming year. Outstanding coverage from a large group, including Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis, Lowetide, Minnia Feng and Pat McLean. If you haven’t subscribed yet, now’s your chance. Outstanding offer is here.

  • New Lowetide: The Oilers are getting more good players from the farm; will these kids arrive in time to save Peter Chiarelli?
  • Lowetide: Gauging the Edmonton Oilers’ needs and tendencies for the 2019 NHL Draft
  • Jonathan Willis: Forecasting Oilers junior prospects based on their statistical performance
  • Lowetide: Complete Oilers top 20 prospects, Winter 2018
  • Jonathan Willis: Analysing the risk of heaping heavy minutes on Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.
  • Lowetide: Oilers midseason report card, brought to you by the letter ‘F’
  • Jonathan Willis: Unlikely scorer Jujhar Khaira has forced his way up the Oilers’ lineup on merit.
  • Black Dog Pat: There’s no in-season balancing for the Oilers
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: From 2 to 98, Oilers share the stories behind their jersey numbers.
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 10 prospect Winter 2018: Dylan Wells.
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 9 prospect Winter 2018: Joel Persson.
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 8 prospect Winter 2018: Kirill Maksimov.
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 7 prospect Winter 2018: Caleb Jones
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 6 Prospect winter 2018: Cooper Marody
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 5 Prospect winter 2018: Ethan Bear.
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 4 Prospect winter 2018: Ryan McLeod.
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 3 Prospect winter 2018: Tyler Benson.
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 2 Prospect winter 2018: Kailer Yamamoto.
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 1 Prospect winter 2018: Evan Bouchard.

OILERS AFTER 45

  • Oilers in 2015: 17-23-5, 39 points; goal differential -24
  • Oilers in 2016: 23-15-7, 53 points; goal differential +4
  • Oilers in 2017: 19-23-3, 41 points; goal differential -26
  • Oilers in 2018: 21-21-3, 45 points; goal differential -12

OILERS IN JANUARY

  • Oilers in January 2016: 2-2-2, six points; goal differential -2
  • Oilers in January 2017: 3-3-0, six points; goal differential -2
  • Oilers in January 2018: 2-4-0, four points; goal differential -11
  • Oilers in January 2019: 3-3-0, six points; goal differential -5

WHAT TO EXPECT IN JANUARY

  • On the road to: Arizona, Los Angeles, Anaheim, San Jose (Expected 2-2-0) (Actual 2-2-0)
  • At home to: Florida, Arizona, Buffalo (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 1-1-0)
  • On the road to: Vancouver (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Calgary, Carolina, Detroit (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 4-5-2, 10 points in 11 games
  • Current results: 3-3-0, six points in six games

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

  • Jones-Larsson went 14-11 in 15:37, 7-4 shots, no goals 4-1 HDSC. Spent 10:09 with McDavid, but three of the four HDSC came with Milan Lucic on the ice. Went 6-2 in 7:13 against Crouse-Kempe-Archibald. Larson’s offensive sorties were mostly unproductive, he did hammer poor Hjalmarsson senseless with one shot.
  • Nurse-Russell were 16-20 in 21:45, 9-12 shots, 2-1 goals and 7-3 HDSC. Russell made a foolish pass on the first goal, scoring one of his own later in the game. The pairing had problems making substantial outlet passes and it was a problem. Went 8-10 in 10:34 against Panik-Stepan-Hinostroza.
  • Gravel-Benning went 7-10 in 10:31, 4-7 shots, no goals and 1-0 HDSC. As was the case with the second pairing, outlet passing was an issue. Went 4-7 in 5:40 against Keller-Weal-Fischer.
  • Cam Talbot stopped 26 of 29, .897. Some bad luck on the face goal and the winning marker.
  • NHL.com and NaturalStatTrick.

FORWARDS, LAST NIGHT

  • Lucic-Brodziak-Kassian were 6-1 in 4:16, the line had some jump and several impressive chances. Couldn’t cash, and that’s been the season. Brodziak’s penalty was miles from home and costly. I like him as a player but your fourth line cannot cost you as much as this year’s unit has already.
  • Draisaitl-McDavid-Chiasson went 12-3 in 12:36, the lines were shuffling so fast I’m just going to address the top units. Leon looked both exhausted and like he was trying to do too much. Arizona has to be given credit, they didn’t give much clean air to 97. Nice pass from Rattie on the goal.
  • Spooner-Khaira-Puljujarvi went 7-5 in 8:57, it was a respectable evening for the trio. Problem is they need a more skilled player to drive the line. Nuge could make this line better.
  • Nuge-McDavid-Rattie were 7-11 in 7:40, all three men getting a point on the night. Nice pass from Rattie on the 97 goal, Nuge with a nice dish on the second tally.

I understand Mr. Hitchcock’s point but the Oilers are counting on veterans who are midway through what looks like their final NHL seasons. Now, we know contracts means some of these fellows will return, but consider the boxcars on some of Edmonton’s forwards:

  • Milan Lucic 45, 2-7-9
  • Tobias Rieder 32, 0-7-7
  • Zack Kassian 42, 2-4-6
  • Kyle Brodziak 43, 2-4-6
  • Ryan Spooner 23, 2-1-3

McDavid With or Without You. That’s it, that’s all. It hasn’t turned around in four summers of trading draft picks for expensive veterans and signing big name free agents.

Enough. Draft, procure and develop. You can’t trade your way into contention and free agency is where you kill your cap room. Peter Chiarelli and his staff have done a lot of things well, including the draft, building up the Condors and procuring college men like Matt Benning and Drake Caggiula.

The big trades and the big money free-agent contracts have obscured some good works. The trading of draft picks may have buried a fantastic future.

Now, tell me again why dealing the 2019 first-round selection is a good idea.

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Silver Streak

Lost in time……hey guys…somewhere over the holidays I must have missed a change on this blog.
its like I missed a days Blog posting….can someone tell me why our blog is 24 hours late….deals with yesterday`s news….I thought maybe it had something to do with LT being in Mexico for a week or so….

Regretzky

Wilde,

You are a Master Debater! I wouldn’t want to meet you in a dark alley of the Oilogosphere.

Ryan

Wilde,

Sorry to offend you, I don’t have time to reply at the moment. I will clarify that by saying, “trying to play chip and chase” I was referring to a coached strategy that hitch seems to want him to do and nothing inherent to JP.

Chip and chase is a challenge for JP. He doesn’t time his chip ins well and he doesn’t retrieve the puck very often. Opposing defensemen don’t have their heads on a swivel fearing a crushing hit from JP. He’s not Tom Wilson.

As for the two way player you profess, what evidence in his deployment do you see from his coaches that suggests two way ability?

Wilde

JimmyV1965:

I’ve never said JP will be incapable of playing top six role. In your original statement, you said JP is likely to fill out a top six role next year. That’s what I had an issue with. We project players for roles they have yet to prove the can fulfill. It’s not good for them or the team.

You’re talking past me. Jesse Puljujärvi has proven that he can fill that role next to McDavid in the metrics I value. If you’re going to contend what I’m saying, you have to contend with my assertion that he’s already an option there, not with the assertion you /think/ I’m making, wherein I’m projecting him there based on what he could be in the future. I’m talking right now, I think right now he should be there. In the interest of winning.

What I think is somewhat likely is either Hitchcock comes around on this, or that Puljujärvi progresses enough to produce offense with Nugent-Hopkins. I think the chances of both of those options failing isn’t a large majority.

JimmyV1965:
Look, I get that you like JP, but I think you’ve lost a little objectivity here. Two NHL coaches have yet to play him with McDavid in meaningful minutes. There’s a reason for that, especially when one of them expressly stated that he believed in JP and would unlock his potential. I can only assume that his 5×5 P/60 with McDavid is a small sample size.

Your assumption that I would cite a statistic from a small sample size without indicating that it was from a small sample size is revealing. It’s almost 400 minutes.

I am fundamentally opposed to many of Todd McLellan’s actions and views that he demonstrated over his time with the Edmonton Oilers. I don’t worry at all about whether or not I’m disagreeing with his actions or his views. I don’t look at whether or not my more micro preferences align with his as validated, and if they don’t, as invalidating.

On Ken Hitchcock, when I disagree with his decisions I give these things a lot more thought because of how much less time I’ve observed him handle this roster, and my agreement with many of his systematic preferences and philosophies that can be found on YouTube in long videos recorded of him speaking and teaching. On Puljujärvi, he has repeatedly stated two relevant ideas, one directly pertaining to 98, and another that is a general rule’s application affects this situation.

1) He wants to bring Puljujärvi along at pace.

2) He likes to establish and work in pairs.

Both of these things preclude Puljujärvi’s presence on the top line, without that being a statement about his ability with 97 or in general.

There’s also the hidden factor that 97 might not like playing with him. I think he would, as nearly everyone does, change his mind if it started working. McDavid strikes me as a principled but open-minded person who sticks to his guns but is still malleable, in a good way, like most 22-year-olds are.

JimmyV1965: For every Rantanen or Dubois you cite, there’s a Bennet and Virtannen. JP is not the only high pick who has not played significant minutes with his team’s top player.

Sam Bennett also spent 400ish minutes over 2015-16 to 2017-18 with the top offensive player on his team. He dragged Gaudreau’s GF% down. Opposite situation of Puljujarvi – Gaudreau’s 54% GF away from SB, 47% with him, and SB is 43% without Gaudreau, 5% lower than Calgary’s GF% with both on the bench. Literally the opposite situation.

From 2016-17 to 2018-19 in 400 minutes Virtanen did improve Horvat’s GF%, but he scored at a 4th line rate as opposed to JP’s first line rate, and the GF% increase is nearly all in decreasing the GA/60, and he lowers Horvat’s GF/60 by 0.59, whereas Puljujärvi’s minutes with McDavid were had a 0.15 (ish) increase in GF/60. Virtanen also hurt the shot shares, Pulju improved them. Basically a PDO bump in which Virtanen scored at a 4th line rate.

Jesse Puljujärvi’s not the only top pick that hasn’t been given a spot up high, but among those who haven’t he has the rare (perhaps even unique) attribute of demonstrably deserving a better shot in the interest of both individual and team success.

JimmyV1965

Wilde: Slotting JP with McDavid is a rinse and repeat of a successful venture.

The problem with looking at JP’s tptal points over this stretch where he’s with Nuge as an opportunity (that he’s failing to grasp) at being a top-six winger are many.

They mostly fall under the umbrella of ‘quality of team’.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has not been a prolific scorer at 5v5 over the course of his career.

The defencemen they play in front of have been a complete and utter mess.

The whole team’s shot and goal shares have been a complete and utter mess.

Then, to cap it off, they’re playing against competition better than them, at F and D.

Here’s a particular thing that I’d like to address.

Jesse Puljujärvi’s 5v5 P/60 with McDavid over the last three years is a first-line rate, in minutes where the five-man unit scores more in totality than they do when 97’s on the ice without Puljujärvi.

I feel like me suggesting to put 98 with 97 is being taken as “let’s see if this works” when I’m actually asserting “this works, so do it.”

Every other team does this, by the way. Every other team looks at their young, high draft picks that succeed with their existing stars but flounder without them and decide to put their young high draft picks with their stars. In the interest of icing the best roster while developing the player at the same time.

Mikko Rantanen was good with MacKinnon and trash without. They kept them together. PLD was good with Panarin and trash without. They kept them together. Travis Konecny was bad with Patrick and good with Couturier and Giroux. Same thing. Everyone does this now.

e: Adding Nylander, who was 48% GF over 2016-17 to 2017-18 without Matthews and 62% with.

Kyle Connor 52% GF with Scheifele, 47% without. Scheifele’s 67% GF without Connor. All 700+ minute samples from 2017-18 to 2018-19.

I’ve never said JP will be incapable of playing top six role. In your original statement, you said JP is likely to fill out a top six role next year. That’s what I had an issue with. We project players for roles they have yet to prove the can fulfill. It’s not good for them or the team.

Look, I get that you like JP, but I think you’ve lost a little objectivity here. Two NHL coaches have yet to play him with McDavid in meaningful minutes. There’s a reason for that, especially when one of them expressly stated that he believed in JP and would unlock his potential. I can only assume that his 5×5 P/60 with McDavid is a small sample size.

For every Rantanen or Dubois you cite, there’s a Bennet and Virtannen. JP is not the only high pick who has not played significant minutes with his team’s top player.

OriginalPouzar

2 points up for grabs tonight against BUF.

Go Oilers!

Go Mikko (I assume).

Wilde

JimmyV1965:
I have to admit I’m concerned you have JP slotted for the top six next year. Although I like JP, and would rather keep him than the first round pick, slotting him in the top six is really a rinse and repeat of what we always do; count on first line production from a kid who has not demonstrated he is capable of doing that.
JP has 5 pts and 22 shots in his last 20 games. I think we’re doing him a disservice by saying he’s ready to play a top 6 role. It’s not fair to him and it’s not fair to the team.

Slotting JP with McDavid is a rinse and repeat of a successful venture.

The problem with looking at JP’s tptal points over this stretch where he’s with Nuge as an opportunity (that he’s failing to grasp) at being a top-six winger are many.

They mostly fall under the umbrella of ‘quality of team’.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has not been a prolific scorer at 5v5 over the course of his career.

The defencemen they play in front of have been a complete and utter mess.

The whole team’s shot and goal shares have been a complete and utter mess.

Then, to cap it off, they’re playing against competition better than them, at F and D.

JimmyV1965: from a kid who has not demonstrated he is capable of doing that.

Here’s a particular thing that I’d like to address.

Jesse Puljujärvi’s 5v5 P/60 with McDavid over the last three years is a first-line rate, in minutes where the five-man unit scores more in totality than they do when 97’s on the ice without Puljujärvi.

I feel like me suggesting to put 98 with 97 is being taken as “let’s see if this works” when I’m actually asserting “this works, so do it.”

Every other team does this, by the way. Every other team looks at their young, high draft picks that succeed with their existing stars but flounder without them and decide to put their young high draft picks with their stars. In the interest of icing the best roster while developing the player at the same time.

Mikko Rantanen was good with MacKinnon and trash without. They kept them together. PLD was good with Panarin and trash without. They kept them together. Travis Konecny was bad with Patrick and good with Couturier and Giroux. Same thing. Everyone does this now.

e: Adding Nylander, who was 48% GF over 2016-17 to 2017-18 without Matthews and 62% with.

Kyle Connor 52% GF with Scheifele, 47% without. Scheifele’s 67% GF without Connor. All 700+ minute samples from 2017-18 to 2018-19.

Wilde

Ryan: Puljujarvi’s interesting because he’s not a finished product, but he’s on the verge of losing his waiver exempt status. He’s also not a Swiss Army knife of a hockey player. He doesn’t kill penalties. he doesn’t play the bumper or run the half wall on the PP. he doesn’t win face offs or grind guys down on the forecheck. No, his calling card is to produce points and create offense. So far, he doesn’t do that at the NHL level.

Instead of playing 12 minutes per night at evens trying to play chip and chase not producing offense, he should be down in the AHL playing big minutes and getting substantial power play time to work on developing his game in the minors while he still can.

How does Puljujärvi not grind on the forecheck?

How does one of the only forwards on the team who comes back for zone exits and plays to create entries with control be seen as “trying to play chip and chase”?

These are just massively, unconscionably misinformed statements. There isn’t a without-the-puck facet of the winger role during the 5v5 game state that Puljujärvi doesn’t excel at. Aiding zone exits, aiding zone entries, disrupting breakouts, forcing dump-ins with backpressure, forcing turnovers, all of these things are assets in his game.

His calling card is producing offense? Saying that in combination with a discounting of his abilities in other areas suggests you’re painting him as some kind of pure scorer project. By what scouting report or analysis of his game is this evaluation gleaned from? By what empirical measures is this true? He was a high-end but not elite producer in the SM-Liiga who was groomed as a two-way player whose win-conditions were to get the puck back by disruption and harassment, retaining possession through the neutral zone, and generating shot-clock advantages through these things along with his own volume-shooting.

His shot-share and close-score shot-share was the highest among regular players for Kärpät at 57.4%. 491-364 count. Team average was about 53%.

His rookie season he scored well with McDavid, poorly without and had a generally positive effect on shot and goal shares.

The position that he would be better off getting more minutes in the AHL at this time has its merits, but much of what you said here is just plainly indefensible and taints your entire perspective and position.

jp

Ryan: Great list, thanks.

Sorry for confusion.

I had indicated that Bennett played 1 game in his draft plus one year. He did in fact play one NHL game in his draft plus one year. I also put a zero as placeholder for Crouse. He didn’t play in his draft plus one, so I should have just not listed him there as this creatied confusion. As for Magnus is where I made a mistake. I forgot that he played a year in the SEL.

Right off the top, some of your comps are probably too old- Jokinen, Sedin, and Ladd.

The Sedins are a terrible comp for anything and they always have been because their late surge in production coupled with their long careers is way too unique.

Neiderreider and Turris are interesting (in a bad way) because both of their respective teams that drafted them gave up on them and traded them. Neither went right into the NHL and both played substantial games in the AHL (full season).

Though R Jo played his draft plus one in junior, his offense really popped in his draft plus four. We can hope.

Scheifiele played two years in the OHL after being drafted. He was over 0.5 ppg in his draft plus 3. That doesn’t work.

Couturier was a defensive beast from day one. He also hit nearly 0.5 ppg by draft plus 3.

Kadri’s a great comp in a sense to make my point. Because Kadri played draft plus one in junior, he was waiver exempt and got 27 AHL games in his draft plus four.

Basically I think of the last year of being waiver exempt as a pivotal year much like the last year of a car’s manufacturer warranty.

Puljujarvi’s interesting because he’s not a finished product, but he’s on the verge of losing his waiver exempt status. He’s also not a Swiss Army knife of a hockey player. He doesn’t kill penalties. he doesn’t play the bumper or run the half wall on the PP. he doesn’t win face offs or grind guys down on the forecheck. No, his calling card is to produce points and create offense. So far, he doesn’t do that at the NHL level.

Instead of playing 12 minutes per night at evens trying to play chip and chase not producing offense, he should be down in the AHL playing big minutes and getting substantial power play time to work on developing his game in the minors while he still can.

Again, agreed on your greater point that it would probably have been better to give JP more development time and less NHL time over his head.

But my confusion was mostly that you initially said comps were guys that went straight to the NHL and then struggled for a prolonged time. So I was/am confused why you then included Bennett, Crouse and MPS.

Otherwise I think you’re being overly strict in discounting comps, but that’s JMO. There are paths for players like JP to eventually reach their potential after struggling for multiple years at the NHL level.

Gerta Rauss

hunter1909:
Oilers are like getting coal for Christmas.

lol

Ryan

jp: I’m confused. Bennett, Crouse and MPS all played draft +1 outside the NHL. So they aren’t good comps for lack of time to marinate, right?

JP is pretty rare since not many teams keep unproductive young players in the NHL year over year over year. Based on your original criteria there’s a rather small pool of players to choose comps from.

If you allow for guys who remained relatively unproductive through draft +3, there are quite a few who eventually turned it around. The following were all top 10 picks who broke out after their draft +3 (and had at least 2 NHL seasons before gaining real traction):

Jonathan Drouin
Ryan Johansen
Josh Bailey
Kyle Turris
Andrew Ladd
The Sedin brothers
Olli Jokinen

And to a lesser degree:
Mika Zibanejad
Mark Scheifele
Sean Couturier
Nino Niederreiter
Brayden Schenn
Nazem Kadri

Also Blake Wheeler managed 3 college seasons without hitting 1 PPG after being drafted, but he’s alright.

None of this means JP is destined for greatness. But it also doesn’t mean he’s destined to fail based on where he is at age 20.

BTW, I agree generally that this isn’t a great developmental plan. Just trying to show that it may not be terminal. Without a doubt JP needs to start producing at some point, but there’s still some time for that to happen.

Great list, thanks.

Sorry for confusion.

I had indicated that Bennett played 1 game in his draft plus one year. He did in fact play one NHL game in his draft plus one year. I also put a zero as placeholder for Crouse. He didn’t play in his draft plus one, so I should have just not listed him there as this creatied confusion. As for Magnus is where I made a mistake. I forgot that he played a year in the SEL.

Right off the top, some of your comps are probably too old- Jokinen, Sedin, and Ladd.

The Sedins are a terrible comp for anything and they always have been because their late surge in production coupled with their long careers is way too unique.

Neiderreider and Turris are interesting (in a bad way) because both of their respective teams that drafted them gave up on them and traded them. Neither went right into the NHL and both played substantial games in the AHL (full season).

Though R Jo played his draft plus one in junior, his offense really popped in his draft plus four. We can hope.

Scheifiele played two years in the OHL after being drafted. He was over 0.5 ppg in his draft plus 3. That doesn’t work.

Couturier was a defensive beast from day one. He also hit nearly 0.5 ppg by draft plus 3.

Kadri’s a great comp in a sense to make my point. Because Kadri played draft plus one in junior, he was waiver exempt and got 27 AHL games in his draft plus four.

Basically I think of the last year of being waiver exempt as a pivotal year much like the last year of a car’s manufacturer warranty.

Puljujarvi’s interesting because he’s not a finished product, but he’s on the verge of losing his waiver exempt status. He’s also not a Swiss Army knife of a hockey player. He doesn’t kill penalties. he doesn’t play the bumper or run the half wall on the PP. he doesn’t win face offs or grind guys down on the forecheck. No, his calling card is to produce points and create offense. So far, he doesn’t do that at the NHL level.

Instead of playing 12 minutes per night at evens trying to play chip and chase not producing offense, he should be down in the AHL playing big minutes and getting substantial power play time to work on developing his game in the minors while he still can.

Ribs

Bruce McCurdy: The more I looked at that goal the more I thought it goes in whether buddy’s face is there or not.

Yeah, it looks like it would have went in anyway… But… Talbot couldn’t get into position as Garland was in the way (INTERFERENCE!!!). I know he was pushed into the goalie, but how long do you give a guy to get out of the way? Is there any rule for that?

Haha… Goal well earned. Hard to take that one away from him.

___

It’s pretty clear that a purge needs to happen with this team. Does it start at the deadline? This would mean the kids will play when they are probably not ready, but some picks/prospects may be pinched out of bodies leaving town. Or do they wait until summer? This means there will likely be less/no return on some of these guys, but the kids are left to develop.

I hope some thought gets put into it.

hunter1909

geowal:
Just back from the Flames / Coyotes game. Man, tough night for the Coyotes goalie. Beyond that, it’s amazing how easy it is for the Flames to gain the zone, compared to how excruciatingly difficult it is for the non-McDavid Oilers to do the same (and even he struggles with the triple team).
Sigh.

There’s that Flames feeling of near panic at the idea of a McDavid/Hall led Oilers resuming the lopsided relationship driving them on. Fortunately, providentially for them Chiarelli continues to be the GM of the Oilers. The others continue to suck up to Katz and collect their checks.

If this wasn’t an Oilers blog I’d think about saying I want them to win a cup just to piss Katz and his tools more than I ever could.

hunter1909

Oilers are like getting coal for Christmas.

geowal

Just back from the Flames / Coyotes game. Man, tough night for the Coyotes goalie. Beyond that, it’s amazing how easy it is for the Flames to gain the zone, compared to how excruciatingly difficult it is for the non-McDavid Oilers to do the same (and even he struggles with the triple team).
Sigh.

jp

Ryan:

My point is that the clock on an NHL player’s career or potential career runs a lot faster when they’re thrown right into the NHL burning off their ELC and waiver exemption than when they marinate in lesser leagues.

Draft +1

JP: 0.29 ppg
Bennett: 1 ppg!!!(Ha. 1 gp)
Barkov: 0.4 ppg
Crouse: 0
Magnus: 0.43
Lindholm: 0.36
Yakupov: 0.65

I’m confused. Bennett, Crouse and MPS all played draft +1 outside the NHL. So they aren’t good comps for lack of time to marinate, right?

JP is pretty rare since not many teams keep unproductive young players in the NHL year over year over year. Based on your original criteria there’s a rather small pool of players to choose comps from.

If you allow for guys who remained relatively unproductive through draft +3, there are quite a few who eventually turned it around. The following were all top 10 picks who broke out after their draft +3 (and had at least 2 NHL seasons before gaining real traction):

Jonathan Drouin
Ryan Johansen
Josh Bailey
Kyle Turris
Andrew Ladd
The Sedin brothers
Olli Jokinen

And to a lesser degree:
Mika Zibanejad
Mark Scheifele
Sean Couturier
Nino Niederreiter
Brayden Schenn
Nazem Kadri

Also Blake Wheeler managed 3 college seasons without hitting 1 PPG after being drafted, but he’s alright.

None of this means JP is destined for greatness. But it also doesn’t mean he’s destined to fail based on where he is at age 20.

BTW, I agree generally that this isn’t a great developmental plan. Just trying to show that it may not be terminal. Without a doubt JP needs to start producing at some point, but there’s still some time for that to happen.

Glovjuice

Flames win 7-1. The tragedy is unfolding.

Ryan

ChiliChunk: A player that comes to mind for me is Josh Bailey. Produced better than JP during the floundering stage but took a long time to really become a significant offensive contributor.

Yeah Bailey did have a pretty late spike in offense for his age.

He played a ton with Tavares last year and Barzal this season.

Glovjuice

Jethro Tull: He is, but I’d rather he’d save Copperhead Road for a special occasion.

If your into it, I love Steve Earle’s new bluegrass stuff.

All his stuff is worthy. I have Terraplane and it’s great. Don’t have his latest from 17 though yet. Odd trivia. His show from about 2000 at the Winspear is the only show that had been too loud for me.

Ryan

Woodguy v2.0:
Ryan,

Ha! I didn’t even see your post when I did mine.

I don’t use points/per game as not all players get the same PP time, it really skews things.

I use 5v5 pts/60, it evens the playing field much better.

I also use age-year as that important when discussing players under 24.

When one player is 2 months from being draft eligible in the previous year and the next guy is 2 months from being draft eligible in the following year that’s a big deal at these ages.

Yeah, we’re looking at the same thing in slightly different ways. 🙂

I like to forgo nuance about age because I prefer to weigh years post-draft as it more accurately reflects waiver exemption status (for players that go straight into the NHL). I think though have no evidence to prove that the Dan Hodgson effect is more profound in junior hockey than at the NHL level.

The downside to using a stronger lense like 5v5/60 is that you can lose sight of the big picture.you also lose Toi/GP which I feel is an important measure as the coach’s valuation of a player.

I appreciate you trying to allay and assuage our concerns. Look at Puljujarvi, he’s on a team in his draft plus three that’s nearly devoid of any scoring wingers yet he’s only getting twelve minutes and 17 seconds per game all states. That’s a concern for me both from a developmental standpoint as well as from a coach’s flashlight.

Elias Lindholm averaged 18 minutes and five second per game in his draft plus three. He was playing on both special teams including 50 seconds per game on the PK.

Bennett was getting 15 minutes per game in his draft plus 3. Over a minute per game on the PK.

Yakupov was over 15 minutes.

Either way, JP’s getting 22 seconds on the PP per game, so I don’t think the development plan is optimal. He’s not trusted to kill penalties.

For highly touted lottery pick players that go straight in the NHL, my main point is that they get a long push due to pedigree, but there reaches a point where the rubber has to hit the road in terms of producing offense. Draft plus four seems to be a crucial year.

Glovjuice

OriginalPouzar: Mangiapane and Jankowski = Benson and Marody (Khaira, maybe Yamamoto, etc.)

Bennett = Puljujarvi

Bennet = Puli I can agree with but not Benson and especially Marody (can’t skate like the Flames guys). You have a good handle on all things hockey and Oil but are missing the boat on the need for at least average skating in the new NHL, which is evolving very quickly (well, since the 15 draft lol).

anjinsan

Chia-rel-LEAVE!
Chia-rel-LEAVE!!
Chia-rel-LEAVE!!!

ChiliChunk

Ryan: Can you or anyone think of a player that’s a comp for JP in terms of a top six forward with draft pedigree who was rushed to the NHL, mostly played there while floundering to produce offense… was kept there in spite of struggling, then suddenly became a top six forward?

The Oilers have really botched his development.

A player that comes to mind for me is Josh Bailey. Produced better than JP during the floundering stage but took a long time to really become a significant offensive contributor.

Scungilli Slushy

The Oilers are mostly lacking bottom 9 players that can help and are affordable.

If JP becomes a very strong 2 way winger that has a cap hit that keeps him around, that is a great result. Connor needs wingers that can score but also do the hard work.

Connor needs to work hard too, but a player of his calibre needs linemates that let him play to his max, not needing him to do the work they don’t /can’t do well enough.

Like Kurri, but not a 70 goal scorer because Leon has the other big forward contract on this roster. If JP is a 20 G 60 P guy, can skate, is a possession driving outscorer, maybe that is the best outcome for what the team actually needs.

Glovjuice

GordieHoweHatTrick: Smoking something funny is the only way I can watch this team these daze…

I have been, and am looking forward to more, smokey funny with LESS Soilers and more music listeny and watchy like last night. Back to the 20’s me.

OriginalPouzar

Glovjuice: I must confess that Hitch is treading very close to garnering the all talk tag from me and I was all go girl for the big man early on.

I generally love what he has to say but I don’t see alot of what he says being implemented and, frankly, I’ve disagreed with his player deployment just as much as I did with McLellan in lots of ways.

OriginalPouzar

drglen:
hold on JP, hold on Kailer.
dont’ trade the first.

protect jones.

We’ll have to see – maybe in two years we’ll want to protect Lagesson or Bear or maybe Persson or Berglund. I’m actually not exactly sure the protection/exempt status for those prospects playing pro in other leagues – Persson will need to be protected if they want (i.e. not exempt) but Berglund won’t be signing until this spring but is a pro.

If that is the case, that we want to protect like 3-4 guys, well, that’s a good thing as we’ll be able to sustain the loss but, at the same time, maybe only 1 or 2 are worthy of protection but we lose them anyways because of interim moves.

Glovjuice

dessert1111:
I thought the game last night was ok overall. I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect much better with this team at this point.

Because it’s such a weak year for the conference outside the tip 5 I think the Oilers still have a legitimate shot at the playoffs. I wouldn’t trade more than a mid round pick and a mid-level prospect for a rental. Something like Maroon for a 5th would give another look in the top 6 with someone who was successful there recently.

I wouldn’t trade anything of value unless it’s a long term solution, and I don’t our GM is willing or able to think long term at the moment. As long as he’s still in the chair I am very nervous for any sort of trade where value moves. He keeps losing them.

One of the funniest things is that we have a huge hole at 3C and he traded a competent 3C for a winger who can’t beat our our mediocre wingers. If he was supposed to be a winger here, what was the plan for 3C? And if the plan was for Spooner to be 3C, what happened?

The lack of clear-headed planning continues to limit this team’s ceiling. Chia is not going to be reborn at this point. This must be obvious to whoever is in charge of firing him, I would hope.

The Spooner trade is not funny. It’s a dark comedy of the epic proportion variety.

Biggus Dickus

OriginalPouzar: Exactly my point – you put a much higher cap on Yamamoto who has accomplished less than Puljujarvi and is essentially the same age. You posit that the book is essentially written on Puljujarvi but give Yamamoto more blank pages – they are the same age (for all intents and purposes) and Yamamoto hasn’t accomplished anything offensively at the NHL level.

No, I said he would be out of the league. He’s a scrub.

Glovjuice

JimmyV1965: Because this trade was so horrendously bad it colours all our perceptions of trading a first. It’s still mind blowing. We traded a 16th and a 33rd in a deep draft for nothing, zero, nada. Shocking.

Worst trade in Oilers history in every way, including negative impact on the 5-8 years following the deal. No way in hell that the Satan trade negatively impacted the team this much. Even the 99 sale brought back good players. 16/33 brought back friggin zero- its mind bending.

drglen

JimmyV1965: Totally agree. JP can become a very useful player. He might still become a legitimate scorer. If not, he can become a very useful bottom six player. I would hate to give up on the kid after investing three years of development.

right. If he becomes bottom six, and paid as bottom six, that’s fine. That’s still good.

Glovjuice

OriginalPouzar:
That certainly was disappointing last night.

I see alot of talk/posts about effort but, to me, I don’t question their effort, I question execution which is highly related to ability (and its clear that management hasn’t provided enough “ability”).

I also question the coaching – the lines were rolling in the first period offensively – top 3 lines were skating well and creating posession shifts – I don’t now why Hitchcock felt the need to change things up – overcoaching in my opinion.

Why is Rattie removed from 1RW – he was skating well early and contributing including the primary assist on a talented “know how to play with McDavid” play.

I must confess that Hitch is treading very close to garnering the all talk tag from me and I was all go girl for the big man early on.

drglen

hold on JP, hold on Kailer.
dont’ trade the first.

protect jones.

OriginalPouzar

Biggus Dickus: Maybe you didn’t read what I wrote carefully. I put a much harsher cap on Kailer.

Exactly my point – you put a much higher cap on Yamamoto who has accomplished less than Puljujarvi and is essentially the same age. You posit that the book is essentially written on Puljujarvi but give Yamamoto more blank pages – they are the same age (for all intents and purposes) and Yamamoto hasn’t accomplished anything offensively at the NHL level.

Gerta Rauss

ashley:
Tkachuk 46gp,21-32-52.Ouch.Was he even on the radar in the draft?It would have been better if the Finn drafted the Finn.I wonder who we would have taken.If not Tkachuk, maybe Sergachev?

In addition to all the trade whiffs outlined above, this has to be included as part of the present problem.We badly needed a 4OV pick to work out like a 4OV pick that year.

This is not directly related to your comment Ashley, but Burke said on TV last week that the Flames would have taken JP had he dropped to 6

I’m not sure how the Vancouver pick at 5 would have altered things (if anything) I’m just saying

But point taken about a 4OV pick

OriginalPouzar

Jethro Tull: Losing a player to expansion is not an excuse to not improve the team and is absolutely by definition “Smartest Guy in the Room” thinking, up there with deliberately sabotaging a player in order to pay them less in a contract negotiation.

If we lose a good young player to expansion, it means we have other good youngs players.

Its not an excuse to not improve the team but it must be, 100%, a factor when making transactions until the draft is complete – for management to ignore such short-medium term implications would be egregious and a fireable offence on its own.

Making the team better now is primary but it cannot be done without a view of to the medium and long term.

Gerta Rauss

Jethro Tull: Losing a player to expansion is not an excuse to not improve the team and is absolutely by definition “Smartest Guy in the Room” thinking, up there with deliberately sabotaging a player in order to pay them less in a contract negotiation.

If we lose a good young player to expansion, it means we have other good youngs players.

I agree with this- the best expansion draft strategy is to have a surplus of good players

Jethro Tull

Glovjuice:
Obscured by Terrible Decisions. The Pink Floyd soundtrack for Oilers futility. LT is a genius

He is, but I’d rather he’d save Copperhead Road for a special occasion.

If your into it, I love Steve Earle’s new bluegrass stuff.

ashley

Tkachuk 46gp,21-32-52. Ouch. Was he even on the radar in the draft? It would have been better if the Finn drafted the Finn. I wonder who we would have taken. If not Tkachuk, maybe Sergachev?

In addition to all the trade whiffs outlined above, this has to be included as part of the present problem. We badly needed a 4OV pick to work out like a 4OV pick that year.

Biggus Dickus

OriginalPouzar: Yamamoto has accomplished less than Puljujarvi in the NHL and is 4 months younger.

Sure, Yamamoto is in the first year of his ELC and Jesse his last but they are essentially the same age.

I’m not sure it makes sense to be able to put a more certain cap on Jesse’s potential but not Yamamoto’s.

Maybe you didn’t read what I wrote carefully. I put a much harsher cap on Kailer.

Jethro Tull

OriginalPouzar: WIth current roster construction, this team is set up to lose Caleb Jones (unless they want to leave one of Larsson, Klefbom or Nurse unprotected).

Add in another protected asset and we are looking at Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, Nugent-Hopkins as potential expansion draft losses.

The asset we lose in the SEA expansion draft if going to be material.

Losing a player to expansion is not an excuse to not improve the team and is absolutely by definition “Smartest Guy in the Room” thinking, up there with deliberately sabotaging a player in order to pay them less in a contract negotiation.

If we lose a good young player to expansion, it means we have other good youngs players.

Glovjuice

Obscured by Terrible Decisions. The Pink Floyd soundtrack for Oilers futility. LT is a genius

OriginalPouzar

Rondo:
Ryan Strome with another goal.

Peter Chiarelli has made this team worse.

Thank god for Peter Chiarelli getting those 2 d-men

Yup, along with CF% and a FF% each around 42%, a negative CFRel, HDCF% of 25% and a GF% of 50%.

Numbers reminiscent of one Drake Caggiula……. lamented for that type game, game over game.

Woodguy v2.0

Ryan,

Ha! I didn’t even see your post when I did mine.

I don’t use points/per game as not all players get the same PP time, it really skews things.

I use 5v5 pts/60, it evens the playing field much better.

I also use age-year as that important when discussing players under 24.

When one player is 2 months from being draft eligible in the previous year and the next guy is 2 months from being draft eligible in the following year that’s a big deal at these ages.

OriginalPouzar

Biggus Dickus: There is some sort of cap on their potential. None will be all-stars. Every player not established by the end of ELC has some flaws. Benson may find a top 6 role. Marody maybe top 9, but both have their limitations. JP has shown he too is a limited player, and is unlikely to reach the 50pt mark his draft rank would suggest. He has top 6 upside, but he clearly is a B prospect at this point. I still think Yamamoto will find his way as a notable businessman.

Yamamoto has accomplished less than Puljujarvi in the NHL and is 4 months younger.

Sure, Yamamoto is in the first year of his ELC and Jesse his last but they are essentially the same age.

I’m not sure it makes sense to be able to put a more certain cap on Jesse’s potential but not Yamamoto’s.

OriginalPouzar

leadfarmer: Yes but back muscle injuries heal.I’m sure you’ve had back pain for a few days and it got better.
I don’t think Larsson has had a spinal fusion herniated disc or any other nerve impingement
Here’s his back issue this year
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbssports.com/fantasy/hockey/news/oilers-adam-larsson-dealing-with-minor-back-issue/amp/
Something very minor
He does not accelerate quickly or always turn the best and people make stuff up that his back is acting up

Are we actually agreeing on something?

OriginalPouzar

JimmyV1965: As of today, there are three forwards I’m worried about losing in expansion. Adding JP and Yama to that list is wishful thinking. I hope they are material by then, but I don’t count on it.

I’d be very surprised if either of those players are players that we don’t care about losing after two more seasons.

Woodguy v2.0

Mike Parkatti liked Elias Lindholm ALOT in his draft year.

Said he had him rated above MacKinnon and Barkov LONG TERM.

He knew he would be a long term project, similar to the Sedin’s who he compared well to.

Here’s Lindholm’s 5v5 pts/60 so far in his career:

Age Total Points/60
19 1.16
20 1.19
21 1.06
22 1.69
23 1.47
24 2.05

Lindholm has a late birthday (Dec 2) birthday, so his first NHL season was his 19 year old year.

Reminds me of this guy:

Season Total Points/60
18 1.45
19 1.25
20 1.05

That’s JP, except it looks like JP might be tracking a bit better early.

I was really hoping JP would have a break out year, but we’re past that.

He still has a ton of skill and physical gifts dripping off of him, but he still looks “young” out there and doesn’t have NHL instincts yet, but you can see it coming.

Its not like Lindholm was playing with stiffs in CAR either.

Here’s his 4 most common forward mates during his first 3 seasons:

Eric Staal 1131.0
Jeff Skinner 1064.0
Victor Rask 678.8
Jordan Staal 670.2

Here’s JP:

With TOI With
Milan Lucic 647.63
Connor McDavid 390.97
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 367.93
Ryan Strome 306.72

Not stiffs either, but that first guy is a bit of an anchor.

OriginalPouzar

WIN beats ANA in OT.

Sucks that ANA gets a point against a good team but they were also in the lead with less than 10 to do so I’ll take it.

Woodguy v2.0

russ99,

Sick of optics and fans needing to be proved right,

You may want to avoid this website when Pete gets the pipe.