Copperhead Road

You can’t make one thin dime defending Peter Chiarelli in this town, but I’ll say this: If there was a trade out there for a scoring forward, he’d have pulled the trigger by now.

Of course, the Oilers are here via a large number of decisions that collectively downgraded offensive options, and that’s on management. The Griffin Reinhart trade has been talked to death, but I think last night we saw other signs of previous decisions coming back to bite the team. As an example: Conor Garland’s two goals. He’s a fifth round pick from 2015, an enormous draft pool that now boasts 74 men who have played in at least one NHL game. To give you an idea about how impressive that number is, the 2014 draft—with a full year more on the books—has 73 NHL men. The 2014 draft’s NHL players average 97 games, 19 goals and 45 points. The 2015 draft’s NHL players average 72 games, 14 goals and 37 points, and it’s only going to get more impressive from here.

Connor McDavid (253, 114-209-323), Mathew Barzal (127, 35-91-126), Jonas Siegenthaler (18, 0-4-4), Christian Wolanin (18, 3-4-7), Caleb Jones (13, 1-3-4), Ethan Bear (18, 1-3-4) were all chosen with Oilers selections and have played in the NHL in the years since 2015. The counter argument is always “they wouldn’t have taken Barzal anyway” and that’s fine, but the picks the team reportedly targeted with the Reinhart picks (Joel Eriksson Ek and Brandon Carlo) have also played in the NHL.

The problem is, you develop a past. Coming four years after Connor McDavid was drafted, the Oilers are still getting beaten to the punch by teams who kept those 2015 picks and then developed them.

In hockey procurement, you can’t go fast enough to get there early.

THE ATHLETIC

The Athletic Edmonton is going to bring it all season long. Proud to be part of a lineup that is ready to cover the coming year. Outstanding coverage from a large group, including Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis, Lowetide, Minnia Feng and Pat McLean. If you haven’t subscribed yet, now’s your chance. Outstanding offer is here.

  • New Lowetide: The Oilers are getting more good players from the farm; will these kids arrive in time to save Peter Chiarelli?
  • Lowetide: Gauging the Edmonton Oilers’ needs and tendencies for the 2019 NHL Draft
  • Jonathan Willis: Forecasting Oilers junior prospects based on their statistical performance
  • Lowetide: Complete Oilers top 20 prospects, Winter 2018
  • Jonathan Willis: Analysing the risk of heaping heavy minutes on Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.
  • Lowetide: Oilers midseason report card, brought to you by the letter ‘F’
  • Jonathan Willis: Unlikely scorer Jujhar Khaira has forced his way up the Oilers’ lineup on merit.
  • Black Dog Pat: There’s no in-season balancing for the Oilers
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: From 2 to 98, Oilers share the stories behind their jersey numbers.
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 10 prospect Winter 2018: Dylan Wells.
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 9 prospect Winter 2018: Joel Persson.
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 8 prospect Winter 2018: Kirill Maksimov.
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 7 prospect Winter 2018: Caleb Jones
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 6 Prospect winter 2018: Cooper Marody
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 5 Prospect winter 2018: Ethan Bear.
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 4 Prospect winter 2018: Ryan McLeod.
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 3 Prospect winter 2018: Tyler Benson.
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 2 Prospect winter 2018: Kailer Yamamoto.
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 1 Prospect winter 2018: Evan Bouchard.

OILERS AFTER 45

  • Oilers in 2015: 17-23-5, 39 points; goal differential -24
  • Oilers in 2016: 23-15-7, 53 points; goal differential +4
  • Oilers in 2017: 19-23-3, 41 points; goal differential -26
  • Oilers in 2018: 21-21-3, 45 points; goal differential -12

OILERS IN JANUARY

  • Oilers in January 2016: 2-2-2, six points; goal differential -2
  • Oilers in January 2017: 3-3-0, six points; goal differential -2
  • Oilers in January 2018: 2-4-0, four points; goal differential -11
  • Oilers in January 2019: 3-3-0, six points; goal differential -5

WHAT TO EXPECT IN JANUARY

  • On the road to: Arizona, Los Angeles, Anaheim, San Jose (Expected 2-2-0) (Actual 2-2-0)
  • At home to: Florida, Arizona, Buffalo (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 1-1-0)
  • On the road to: Vancouver (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Calgary, Carolina, Detroit (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 4-5-2, 10 points in 11 games
  • Current results: 3-3-0, six points in six games

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

  • Jones-Larsson went 14-11 in 15:37, 7-4 shots, no goals 4-1 HDSC. Spent 10:09 with McDavid, but three of the four HDSC came with Milan Lucic on the ice. Went 6-2 in 7:13 against Crouse-Kempe-Archibald. Larson’s offensive sorties were mostly unproductive, he did hammer poor Hjalmarsson senseless with one shot.
  • Nurse-Russell were 16-20 in 21:45, 9-12 shots, 2-1 goals and 7-3 HDSC. Russell made a foolish pass on the first goal, scoring one of his own later in the game. The pairing had problems making substantial outlet passes and it was a problem. Went 8-10 in 10:34 against Panik-Stepan-Hinostroza.
  • Gravel-Benning went 7-10 in 10:31, 4-7 shots, no goals and 1-0 HDSC. As was the case with the second pairing, outlet passing was an issue. Went 4-7 in 5:40 against Keller-Weal-Fischer.
  • Cam Talbot stopped 26 of 29, .897. Some bad luck on the face goal and the winning marker.
  • NHL.com and NaturalStatTrick.

FORWARDS, LAST NIGHT

  • Lucic-Brodziak-Kassian were 6-1 in 4:16, the line had some jump and several impressive chances. Couldn’t cash, and that’s been the season. Brodziak’s penalty was miles from home and costly. I like him as a player but your fourth line cannot cost you as much as this year’s unit has already.
  • Draisaitl-McDavid-Chiasson went 12-3 in 12:36, the lines were shuffling so fast I’m just going to address the top units. Leon looked both exhausted and like he was trying to do too much. Arizona has to be given credit, they didn’t give much clean air to 97. Nice pass from Rattie on the goal.
  • Spooner-Khaira-Puljujarvi went 7-5 in 8:57, it was a respectable evening for the trio. Problem is they need a more skilled player to drive the line. Nuge could make this line better.
  • Nuge-McDavid-Rattie were 7-11 in 7:40, all three men getting a point on the night. Nice pass from Rattie on the 97 goal, Nuge with a nice dish on the second tally.

I understand Mr. Hitchcock’s point but the Oilers are counting on veterans who are midway through what looks like their final NHL seasons. Now, we know contracts means some of these fellows will return, but consider the boxcars on some of Edmonton’s forwards:

  • Milan Lucic 45, 2-7-9
  • Tobias Rieder 32, 0-7-7
  • Zack Kassian 42, 2-4-6
  • Kyle Brodziak 43, 2-4-6
  • Ryan Spooner 23, 2-1-3

McDavid With or Without You. That’s it, that’s all. It hasn’t turned around in four summers of trading draft picks for expensive veterans and signing big name free agents.

Enough. Draft, procure and develop. You can’t trade your way into contention and free agency is where you kill your cap room. Peter Chiarelli and his staff have done a lot of things well, including the draft, building up the Condors and procuring college men like Matt Benning and Drake Caggiula.

The big trades and the big money free-agent contracts have obscured some good works. The trading of draft picks may have buried a fantastic future.

Now, tell me again why dealing the 2019 first-round selection is a good idea.

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212 Responses to "Copperhead Road"

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  1. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    I knew ARI was injured, but I didn’t know the extent to which they were injured.

    Here’s who is on IR for ARI:

    Bolland, Dave Doesn’t play
    Hossa, Marián Doesn’t play
    Demers, Jason 1RD
    Raanta, Antti 1G
    Grabner, Michael 2LW
    Richardson, Brad 3C
    Schmaltz, Nick 3/4C
    Dvorak, Christian 2C

    That’s crazy

    So they actually iced a team with a $46.1MM cap hit last night and that includes the 3 goalies on the active roster.

    By contrast EDM iced a team with a 70.52MM cap hit last night.

    Man.

  2. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Western Conference Playoff Standings via Points Percentage expressed as points over/under fake Bettman .500

    Pacific
    CGY 16
    SJS 14
    VGK 12

    Central
    WPG 14
    NSH 12
    DAL 4

    Wildcard
    MIN 3
    COL 3

    Out of playoffs
    ANA 1
    EDM 0
    VAN -1
    ARI -1
    STL -1
    CHI -6
    LAK -7

    There was hay to be made last night but they ran into the high spending Coyotes……

    Relevant games today:

    ANA at WPG (WPG -200)
    FLA at VAN (VAN -115)
    ARI at CGY (CGY -270)

  3. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    EDM Goal Share after 45 games (21-21-3)

    Even strength (5v5, 4v4, 3v3):
    McDavid On Ice 47-37 (56%)
    McDavid Off Ice 41-61 (40%)
    EV=-10

    Special Teams (PP+SH For-PK+SH Against):
    30-33
    ST=-3

    Empty Net: (all 5v6 & 5v6)
    6-12
    EN= -6

    SO & PS
    2-1

    SO/PS+1

    Net Goal Differential -18

  4. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    HITCHCOCK ERA
    EDM Goal Share after 25 games (12-11-2)

    Even strength (5v5, 4v4, 3v3)
    McDavid On Ice 27-23 (54%)
    McDavid Off Ice 23-33 (41%)
    Net EV -6

    Sp. Teams (PP+SH For–PK+SH Against)
    13-14
    Net ST -1

    Empty Net
    4-7
    Net EN -3

    SO & PS
    2-1
    SO & PS=+1

    Net Goal Differential -9

  5. Darryl8843 says:

    I read all night about bad luck on the face goal. If Cam makes the save he doesn’t get the goal.

  6. speeds says:

    It depends on the trade.

    Spending a 1st to rent Lehtera seems like it would not be an optimal use of the pick.

    If a team were willing to acquire Sekera, Lucic, Spooner, and Manninh for the 1st, I think you would have to look at it.

    Those are both exaggerated trades that wouldn’t be on the table, but I guess my point is it is possible there is some trade that could be made that makes sense for the Oilers. Particularly if the pick is top 3 protected.

  7. DBO says:

    Our team has less talent and a bad cap situation. First order, Chia has to go.

    So do we do something Bold or keep our powder dry as LT is fond of saying?

    Probably more a summer move, but would anyone entertain moving Drai? Would you take Parayko and Schenn? More or less?

    Pai fully due to Pete we will have to add picks or prospects to move out salary. And to bring balance and cap relief it may cost Drai. God he has messed up this team. Seriously fire him please.

  8. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    By the end of the season the goal differential usually reflects the standings more than any other one metric.

    Here is the WC via goal differential (includes SO & EN as per NHL)

    1 CGY 34
    2 WPG 27
    3 SJS 26
    4 NSH 26
    5 VGK 19
    6 COL 7
    7 DAL -1
    8 MIN -1
    9 ARI -8
    10 STL -13
    11 VAN -16
    12 EDM -18
    13 ANA -27
    14 LAK -31
    15 CHI -34

    Here’s the whole league:

    1 TBY 60
    2 TOR 36
    3 CGY 34
    4 PIT 29
    5 WPG 27
    6 SJS 26
    7 WSH 26
    8 NSH 26
    9 VGK 19
    10 BOS 15
    11 NYI 13
    12 CBJ 7
    13 COL 7
    14 BUF 1
    15 MTL -1
    16 DAL -1
    17 MIN -1
    18 ARI -8
    19 CAR -10
    20 STL -13
    21 VAN -16
    22 EDM -18
    23 FLA -18
    24 NJD -20
    25 ANA -27
    26 DET -27
    27 NYR -29
    28 LAK -31
    29 CHI -34
    30 OTT -35
    31 PHI -37

  9. leadfarmer says:

    Darryl8843:
    I read all night about bad luck on the face goal. If Cam makes the save he doesn’t get the goal.

    I don’t get why players knock opposition forwards into their own goalie. Yes he could have made the save. But that’s a lot of distraction going on
    Well at least we figured out what it would take for Lucic to finally score. Just a little face sacrificing

  10. Clarkenstein says:

    Connor and Leon combined for one shot on goal. One.

  11. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    I knew ARI was injured, but I didn’t know the extent to which they were injured.

    Here’s who is on IR for ARI:

    Bolland, DaveDoesn’t play
    Hossa, MariánDoesn’t play
    Demers, Jason1RD
    Raanta, Antti1G
    Grabner, Michael2LW
    Richardson, Brad3C
    Schmaltz, Nick3/4C
    Dvorak, Christian2C

    That’s crazy

    So they actually iced a team with a $46.1MM cap hit last night and that includes the 3 goalies on the active roster.

    By contrast EDM iced a teamwith a 70.52MM cap hit last night.

    Man.

    Injuries or not. That team was not going to make the playoffs. They don’t have the guns to compete. Poor Keller. Doesn’t have enough skill to play with.

  12. Klima's_Bucket says:

    leadfarmer: Well at least we figured out what it would take for Lucic to finally score. Just a little face sacrificing

    Na, if Lucic’s nose can block out the sun, it’d more than likely block any shot as well.

  13. drglen says:

    that’s exactly what I was thinking. The trade for a forward just isn’t there, or it would have been done.

  14. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer: Injuries or not.That team was not going to make the playoffs. They don’t have the guns to compete.Poor Keller.Doesn’t have enough skill to play with.

    …and their record is almost identical to the Oilers with a better goal differential.

  15. speeds says:

    drglen,

    It could just not be there yet.

    For arguments sake, would people look at a trade for Stone involving EDMs first if an extension were part of the deal?

  16. drglen says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    we should have beaten this team easily. What was the face off percent? Richardson drive the coyotes and he was out.

  17. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0: …and their record is almost identical to the Oilers with a better goal differential.

    Injuries or not, we weren’t going to make the playoffs either. (I had them down for 87 points)

  18. Pescador says:

    leadfarmer: I don’t get why players knock opposition forwards into their own goalie.Yes he could have made the save.But that’s a lot of distraction going on
    Well at least we figured out what it would take for Lucic to finally score.Just a little face sacrificing

    Lucic is more of a side-net player,
    But that is the most likely place to catch a puck in the face when Oiler D are shooting

  19. Gret99zky says:

    Winning isn’t as important as making sure we don’t lose a bottom six forward in the expansion draft.

    Right?

  20. smellyglove says:

    Keep the powder dry. This team isn’t one move shy of contending in the playoffs. Due to Chiarelli’s disposition to bleed value on seemingly every transaction, and make huge whiffs on pro evaluation, the Oilers will only get better through a series of smart, shrewd transactions, probably beginning with the small stuff. We simply don’t have the cap space or the trade assets. Instead of flipping dollar bills for three quarters, which is Chia’s preferred mantra, management needs to slowly turn a bunch of dimes into quarters or 50-cent pieces.

    Find the next Maroon and Glencross. Patiently shed underperforming contracts. Hope for internal development. And when–and only when–you see an opportunity to undertake a Jeff Skinner-like player for a Jeff Skinner-like acquisition cost, you bite; but only in situations where you can win the trade. The team can no longer afford to pay 1:1 on trade value, let alone continually giving up more than what is required.

  21. Pescador says:

    Gret99zky:
    Winning isn’t as important as making sure we don’t lose a bottom six forward in the expansion draft.

    Right?

    Not sure why this would be an issue, there are 8-9 bottom six forwards on the roster now & I don’t see that changing by next season

  22. drglen says:

    speeds:
    drglen,

    It could just not be there yet.

    For arguments sake, would people look at a trade for Stone involving EDMs first if an extension were part of the deal?

    Stone looks like a really good player! Would we say a 20 + goal man should be worth 5-6 mil? Maybe I’m out of touch- that still seems too high) and he was paid 7 mil plus last year> so, in my opinion he is overpaid, Just my opinion. Under no circumstances can you afford this price. The only way to have a mark stone, is to draft and develop a mark stone.

    Keep the first and second. Buy out all of these lame duck players, take your lumps. We have to create a new management identity, one which drafts and protects and develops.

    For those who say firing the GM now will accomplish nothing… (and i’ve supported PC from time to time, ..) I say we may as well get it over with you, start a new roster-build identity now.

  23. Jordan says:

    speeds:
    drglen,

    It could just not be there yet.

    For arguments sake, would people look at a trade for Stone involving EDMs first if an extension were part of the deal?

    I’ve been beating this drum for a while now. I don;t see a way that Stone gets here without Milan going the other way for Cap purposes, and Milan agreeing to waive (could happen, but its to Ottawa, so maybe not).

    If Milan isn’t included, then you have to look at other pieces to balance the Dollars.

    What about Manning, Spooner, Prospect X and the 1st for Stone?

    Is that enough value going back to Make Ottawa like the trade enough to get them to take those contracts for next year?

    Is that enough cap going out for the Oilers to be cap compliant?

  24. Pescador says:

    Maximum of 37 more games before we get a new GM,
    trying to be more positive

  25. drglen says:

    Gret99zky:
    Winning isn’t as important as making sure we don’t lose a bottom six forward in the expansion draft.

    Right?

    I haven’t paid much attention to the expansion draft, but should, Would we lose a khaira, JP, Kailer, or Jones.. ‘for free’ as it stands now?

  26. leadfarmer says:

    speeds:
    drglen,

    It could just not be there yet.

    For arguments sake, would people look at a trade for Stone involving EDMs first if an extension were part of the deal?

    Absolutely. But Chias fine work has made that impossible.
    We’re stuck until Sekera Russell Kassian Spooner Manning contracts expire and hope new CBA lets us get rid of Lucic. Even if they won’t allow free buyouts maybe they change the rules regarding signing bonus buyouts

  27. Gret99zky says:

    Pescador,

    It’s not an issue. But there are some who believe losing Khaira, Yamamoto or JP will bring about the end of the world.

    We survived losing Reinhart in the last expansion.

    Geez.

  28. Louis Levasseur says:

    Why are we so bad at faceoffs? Especially defensive zone faceoffs? RNH is a great player and a good penalty killer, but it seems to me he loses way too many defensive zone faceoffs cleanly on the PK. Absolutely, when you are down a man your percentages should drop on faceoffs, but he gets beat cleanly back to their point. I think that one of the goals last night was a direct result of that.

  29. speeds says:

    leadfarmer: Absolutely.But Chias fine work has made that impossible.
    We’re stuck until Sekera Russell Kassian Spooner Manning contracts expire and hope new CBA lets us get rid of Lucic. Even if they won’t allow free buyouts maybe they change the rules regarding signing bonus buyouts

    I think Jordan has a hypothetical framework that could potentially work, at least as a starting point (assuming Lucic isn’t in the deal, with EDM paying more to include him).

    OTT is rebuilding, adding those two players with a year left probably wouldn’t kill a deal if EDM insisted upon it and had the best offer*, although presumably OTT would want more in return to take the contracts on.

    * I would guess OTT wouldn’t ideally want to spend their money that way, but it depends on the deal and the alternatives.

  30. Oilman99 says:

    Gret99zky:
    Pescador,

    It’s not an issue.But there are some who believe losing Khaira, Yamamoto or JP will bring about the end of the world.

    We survived losing Reinhart in the last expansion.

    Geez.

    Fringe players on a bad team get over rated by their own fans. It really doesn’t matter who you lose in the big picture if the team is being managed properly,and has depth.

  31. flyfish1168 says:

    I feel we need to be active before the trade deadline. We should trade players out that can help out a contending team. Even if we retain a little bit of salary. Chaison as much as I like him, we can try and resign here next summer. I’m sure he would like to come back. We need to bring in picks and players that can help in the following years. But 1st of all can PC.

  32. flyfish1168 says:

    Pescador:
    Maximum of 37 more games before we get a new GM,
    trying to be more positive

    I think we should fire PC now and trade out players to get more drafts picks and young players with potential.

  33. Wilde says:

    I’m going to bitch five times.

    1) In exchange for the sting of the losses in this critical time (it doesn’t harm me much, but I am mad for a few minutes; mostly just feel for the city) I hope what’s being demonstrated to the important people is that although the team does /need/ a winger or a defenceman to compete, there’s some timelines that end with the Oilers trading the first and still missing the playoffs. It’s probably, what, 25-30% chance to make it? So say you swing a deal where you get a guy who /doubles/ your chances at the playoffs. It’s still a coinflip to make it. Insane. I get mad thinking about it.

    2) 23-16-98 was doomed from the start, because all three are complimentary offensively, as LT alluded to. They’re also complimentary in separate ways, with Spooner raising the finishing rate of lines with his playmaking, Puljujärvi raising goal share by disruption and control, and Khaira is a mix of both. Not only do you waste the three guys by putting them together, but you hurt the skill centres by removing the better options in lieu of Rieder and Lucic and Chiasson.

    3) Some of Larsson’s OZ play tells me that this team has a ton of untapped scoring resources by having Larsson/Russell/Benning down the right side. Imagine if a gifted creator was wheeling in Larsson’s place on some of those plays, like a prime-age Bouchard, or even Joel Persson.

    4) If the break comes and goes and there’s no trade, it’s hallelujah time. I’m still scared and I think what might be happening is Chiarelli doesn’t like the ask from teams for their “scoring winger with term”, or however Bob put it. This sets the stage for what’s happened many times when there’s a stare-down between Pete and one of his contemporaries: He blinks.

    5) I just want to know if I should be paying more attention to the cream of this draft crop or the rest.

  34. who says:

    Last nights game was a statement about our roster.
    I thought the effort was there from a lot of players. And yet we still couldn’t beat a tier 2 team with half their players missing. Seems like the Oilers have plenty of support players. We just don’t have enough scoring players. IT’S THE ROSTER STUPID!
    Other than that you can probably blame the loss on goaltending and coaching.
    First goal was a point shot that went through Talbot. He may have been screened.
    Second goal was not bad luck. He was cleanly beaten from above the hash marks. It was in the top corner before it hit the guys face.
    Third goal was just bad luck.
    Game turned on coaches challenge. You cannot challenge that offside unless you are sure! Cost the Oilers 2 goals instead of just 1.

  35. dustrock says:

    flyfish1168:
    I feel we need to be active before the trade deadline. We should trade players out that can help out a contending team. Even if we retain a little bit of salary. Chaison as much as I like him, we can try and resign here next summer. I’m sure he would like to come back. We need to bring in picks and players that can help in the following years. But 1st of all can PC.

    Yes. The number of players I refuse to move on this roster is very low. McDavid, Draisaitl, Klef, Larsson and Bouchard. Love Nuge but I’d be willing for the right move. Larsson looks like his back is an ongoing issue but the RHD is so bad you really can’t replace him.

  36. dustrock says:

    Wilde:
    I’m going to bitch five times.

    1) In exchange for the sting of the losses in this critical time (it doesn’t harm me much, but I am mad for a few minutes; mostly just feel for the city) I hope what’s being demonstrated to the important people is that although the team does /need/ a winger or a defenceman to compete, there’s some timelines that end with the Oilers trading the first and that pick ending up in the top ten before the lottery.

    2) 23-16-98 was doomed from the start, because all three are complimentary offensively, as LT alluded to. They’re also complimentary in separate ways, with Spooner raising the finishing rate of lines with his playmaking, Puljujärvi raising goal share by disruption and control, and Khaira is a mix of both. Not only do you waste the three guys by putting them together, but you hurt the skill centres by removing the better options in lieu of Rieder and Lucic and Chiasson.

    3) Some of Larsson’s OZ play tells me that this team has a ton of untapped scoring resources by having Larsson/Russell/Benning down the right side. Imagine if a gifted creator was wheeling in Larsson’s place on some of those plays, like a prime-age Bouchard, or even Joel Persson.

    4) If the break comes and goes and there’s no trade, it’s hallelujah time. I’m still scared and I think what might be happening is Chiarelli doesn’t like the ask from teams for their “scoring winger with term”, or however Bob put it. This sets the stage for what’s happened many times when there’s a stare-down between Pete and one of his contemporaries: He blinks.

    5) I just want to know if I should be paying more attention to the cream of this draft crop or the rest.

    You give up the first if you’re a definite playoff team that feels there is a player out there that could help get you to the Cup.

    Only an idiot would trade the first for a chance to sneak into 8th and lose in the first round.

    Oh wait.

  37. dustrock says:

    The biggest fear for me is that Chiarelli, Nicholson et al believe that once you get into the playoffs, anything’s possible and we have as good a chance as anyone.

    Can really see that being tossed around.

  38. leadfarmer says:

    speeds: I think Jordan has a hypothetical framework that could potentially work, at least as a starting point (assuming Lucic isn’t in the deal, with EDM paying more to include him).

    OTT is rebuilding, adding those two players with a year left probably wouldn’t kill a deal if EDM insisted upon it and had the best offer*, although presumably OTT would want more in return to take the contracts on.

    * I would guess OTT wouldn’t ideally want to spend their money that way, but it depends on the deal and the alternatives.

    Melnyk is not a I will happily take your cap dumps kind of a guy

  39. flyfish1168 says:

    dustrock: Yes. The number of players I refuse to move on this roster is very low. McDavid, Draisaitl, Klef, Larsson and Bouchard. Love Nuge but I’d be willing for the right move. Larsson looks like his back is an ongoing issue but the RHD is so bad you really can’t replace him.

    I’m ok trading Adam. His back issues only compound with age. Plus we need a clean breakaway since he will always be associated with Hall.

  40. Réal Goudenyéu says:

    dustrock:
    The biggest fear for me is that Chiarelli, Nicholson et al believe that once you get into the playoffs, anything’s possible and we have as good a chance as anyone.

    Can really see that being tossed around.

    Isn’t that exactly what happened last time the oilers went to the cup finals?

    They snuck in in the last week of season.

  41. Bling says:

    OP:

    Just caught your report on Benson/Yamamoto/Marody regarding NHL readiness. Thanks for that. I’ll defer to your better judgement there, as you have watched many AHL games this year and I have watched zero.

    I was basing my argument on Benson leading the team in scoring and Marody clearly being too good for the level.

  42. Richard S.S. says:

    Trading the 1st Round Pick for a difference maker with term is much better than waiting another 2-5 years for the Pick to develop. One is immediately useful to McDavid, the other might be another J.P.

  43. Bling says:

    I’m firmly of the belief that this game should be filed under the shit happens category.

    Scoring Chances were 20-16 for the Oilers, and HD scoring chances were 12-4.

    That’s a game that the Oilers deserved to win, at least at evens.

    Two bad bounces and you lose. It’s like that for the Oilers, and it’s like that even for elite teams, like the Leafs, who lost to Boston. It’s frustrating, but that’s hockey.

    Instead of adding a top 6 player, I think what’s really needed is an overhaul of the bottom six. This is where Chia should be looking to add. Bring in two new guys and sit/get rid of some combination of Rieder/Brodziak/Kassian/Lucic while also getting KY into the lineup.

    Khaira is not effective as a C, IMO. His playmaking is much, much better suited to the wing.

  44. Bling says:

    Réal Goudenyéu: Isn’t that exactly what happened last time the oilers went to the cup finals?

    They snuck in in the last week of season.

    That was an elite squad that was let down by mediocre to bad goaltending.

    That was the last time the Oilers had a truly balanced roster. Young Jarrett Stoll as your 3 line C? Raffi Torres on the wing on line 3? Prime-time Shawn Horcoff and Hemmer? Pronger?

    Beautiful team.

  45. jtblack says:

    Draft Eligble D Man Bowen Byram had 2 G 3 A last night. Probably off the board by the time Edm picks.

  46. leeinvan says:

    There seems to be one constant with this team, and that’s poor effort.
    Like it was said, “the team just doesn’t come out hard,” they haven’t for the last 4-6 years.
    So do you think bringing in 1 or 2 players changes that culture? I don’t.
    This team needs to be blown up and start with players that want to be the best they can every night.
    After the season they need a GM who has a real plan and if that means re-building , I’m fine with that because what they have is not working.
    Peter C has pissed away most of the trading chips the team had and now you have to rely on drafting.
    The team also has to loose salary, it’s insane to be this cap heavy with this team.
    There are plenty of teams that don’t have McDavid and Dria that are much better teams than the Oilers, Vegas has no real superstars and they are a much better team than the Oiler’s, something to think about.

  47. jtblack says:

    “The problem is, you develop a past. Coming four years after Connor McDavid was drafted, the Oilers are still getting beaten to the punch by teams who kept those 2015 picks and then developed them.”

    The Reinhart trade ranks #1 for me. Disaster! And that was my take in Real time.

    Most of those 2015 picks are playing for $1 mil season. Cheap Labor come thru the draft. Draft procurement takes years to bear fruit.

    Last night represents CURTAINS to me.

    The Oilers have played 3 of the 4 wordt teams in the League (L.A., ANA, AZ). They have been outshot in everygame. They cant compete against bottom feeders.

    What happens when they meet a Legit Contender (S.J )?

    They get run out of the rink.

    THIS IS US!

  48. jtblack says:

    jtblack:
    “The problem is, you develop a past. Coming four years after Connor McDavid was drafted, the Oilers are still getting beaten to the punch by teams who kept those 2015 picks and then developed them.”

    The Reinhart trade ranks #1 for me.Disaster!And that was my take in Real time.

    Most of those 2015 picks are playing for $1 mil season.Cheap Labor come thru the draft.Draft procurement takes years to bear fruit.

    Last night represents CURTAINS to me.

    The Oilers have played 3 of the 4 worst teams in the League (L.A., ANA, AZ). They have been outshot in everygame.They cant compete against bottom feeders.

    What happens when they meet a Legit Contender (S.J )?

    They get run out of the rink.

    THIS IS US!

  49. anjinsan says:

    The headlines read Garland, but what about that stud Osterle! :-)?!

    Mr. LT — so many good (and sad) summary points.

    In the spirit of Scrooge — what a long and heavy chain of past terrible trades and contracts draggeth Chiarelli! (Yes, he’s had some small ball successes, but not recently.) His team building is bad on vision, bad on method, he’s spent, and the term of his spending has constrained the GM position’s hand so much that going forward McDavid could ask out to avoid being overskated and waste his career as a Sisyphus.

  50. bendelson says:

    I probably should have mentioned that was a date night last evening at Roger’s Place…
    It may have saved one or two of you ‘discriminating’ gamblers a few dollars… my bad.

    We enjoyed ourselves at the game, though I’m certain just about all of you could give a fuck and would much prefer an actual home victory.

  51. JimmyV1965 says:

    I would suggest we trade the first round draft pick because we cannot start the next season with three legit top six forwards. And as far as I can see, it’s the only real asset we have to move. The Oilers have traded first round draft picks twice in the last 20 years. The first time the results were good because we traded for Roloson. The second time the results sucked because we traded it, along with a high second round pick, for nothing. You can’t look at this trade as an example of why you don’t trade first round picks. To compound the issue, we traded the first in 2015, which turned out to be an exceptionally deep draft. You think someone would have realized that, but this is the Oil.

    There are many reasons not to trade the first round pick. If 2019 is an exceptionally deep draft, that’s a good reason not to do it. If Chia is the GM and mngt remains the same, that’s a good reason. But I see a lot of posters here sticking their fingers in the ears, stomping their feet and saying we can never trade the first round pick. That is not a reasonable response.

    This team does not have a history of trading first round picks. This team has a long, rich tradition of failing to develop players outside the first round. I’ve said it many times; this team can keep every first round pick from here to eternity and it will forever be a lottery team until it drafts and develops outside the first round.

    I consider myself a draft and develop guy. I understand team success will never happen until they figure this out. But you cannot simply state the first round pick is off limits every year. It’s unreasonable.

  52. Dee Dee says:

    Fire the Coach, fire the Coach, fire the GM, fire the Coach, fire the Assistants, fire the Trainers, fire the Coach, fire the Doctor, fire the Coach, fire the Equipment Guy, fire the Coach, fire the GM.

    My Theory is that during their Red Wine Summits the Old Boys Club rolls a Dice or a Magic 8 Ball or something.

    – The Owner need to clean from the top and start demonstrating some accountability.
    – The Old Boys Club needs to be let go or reassigned to important community relations/alumni jobs
    – The Oilers CEO needs to pick his new GM and permanent coach
    – The current coach needs to assess the talent and figure out who shouldn’t be here next year
    – The fans have to realize that their hard earned $$$ allows this shitshow to continue unabated

  53. Derek says:

    JimmyV1965:
    I would suggest we trade the first round draft pick because we cannot start the next season with three legit top six forwards. And as far as I can see, it’s the only real asset we have to move. The Oilers have traded first round draft picks twice in the last 20 years. The first time the results were good because we traded for Roloson. The second time the results sucked because we traded it, along with a high second round pick, for nothing. You can’t look at this trade as an example of why you don’t trade first round picks. To compound the issue, we traded the first in 2015, which turned out to be an exceptionally deep draft. You think someone would have realized that, but this is the Oil.

    There are many reasons not to trade the first round pick. If 2019 is an exceptionally deep draft, that’s a good reason not to do it. If Chia is the GM and mngt remains the same, that’s a good reason. But I see a lot of posters here sticking their fingers in the ears, stomping their feet and saying we can never trade the first round pick. That is not a reasonable response.

    This team does not have a history of trading first round picks. This team has a long, rich tradition of failing to develop players outside the first round. I’ve said it many times; this team can keep every first round pick from here to eternity and it will forever be a lottery team until it drafts and develops outside the first round.

    I consider myself a draft and develop guy. I understand team success will never happen until they figure this out. But you cannot simply state the first round pick is off limits every year. It’s unreasonable.

    I feel you. I mean never say never right?

    The last time this management team traded a first round pick they got Griffin Reinhardt in return though.

  54. Ben says:

    Is the inevitable move here going to be Hitchcock as GM next year?

  55. Bling says:

    Don’t trade the first rounder.

    Even with a significant addition (not that I trust Chia to do that), you’re only barely moving the needle to make the playoffs. Not worth it.

    Need to wait until the off-season to replace the GM and get rid of the dead wood.

    By next training camp, Yamamoto/Benson will be ready.

    Bottom six has to be rebuilt for sure.

  56. flyfish1168 says:

    Happy Birthday, Connor. I hope you are having a well deserved rest. You have been amazing and one of the reasons why the Oilers are my favorite team

  57. Bling says:

    Ben:
    Is the inevitable move here going to be Hitchcock as GM next year?

    I want Mark Hunter. Give him GM duties and President of Hockey Ops, as well as the opportunity to hire and select his own coach.

  58. digger50 says:

    X. McDavid. Leon
    X. Nuge. Pulju
    Khaira. X. X
    X. X. X

    Chaisson
    Rattie
    Kassian

    Klefbom. Larson
    Nurse. X
    Russel. Jones

    Bouchard
    Benning
    Gravel
    Bear

    That is a lot of blank spaces to fill with NHL players. Draft and develop? I’m listening g but is that enough? Looks like a lot more misery before those blank spaces are filled. I want to believe we can win at least one trade. Give us just one more known top six player that will be part of the core. Just one. Presently, it does seem like asking to much, there is no way PEter dds without sending a useful playe out.

    I hope that Hitch has the ear of those making decisions. He has a mountain of experience evaluating teams and talent. He might be critical in building a bottom six this summer. Top six guys are not usually hiding – they are known. Bottom six can be hiding and yet rebuilding those six players effectively could be the biggest difference maker next year.

    And who is the biggest college player available this year? Oilers need to stealhim.

  59. Woogie63 says:

    Elias Lindholm and Ryan Spooner in the last 4 years have been 40 point men with flaws. Both get a new lease on hockey life. Lindholm is growing with Calgaryy top line. Connor is playing with Kassian and Khaira.

  60. OmJo says:

    Darryl8843:
    I read all night about bad luck on the face goal. If Cam makes the save he doesn’t get the goal.

    This can be said for all non-empty net goals though.

    Expecting a goaltender to give up only 1 goal a game every game is unrealistic in this league. The problem is we can’t score. Doesn’t matter who we have in net, if you can score goals you won’t be winning very many games.

  61. JimmyV1965 says:

    I actually thought that was the best game we’ve played in January. We had some bad bounces and we couldn’t finish, but I thought we controlled a good part of the play. The win against Florida was a much worse game IMO.

  62. Professor Q says:

    Woogie63:
    Elias Lindholm and Ryan Spooner in the last 4 years have been 40 point men with flaws.Both get a new lease on hockey life.Lindholm is growing with Calgaryy top line.Connor is playing with Kassian and Khaira.

    Perhaps that’s the issue. We have so many who need their careers resurrected by playing on the top line that it’s tough to get playing time.

    Rattie and Spooner, Rieder, Puljujärvi and Yamamoto (IR), Chiasson is playing well, etc.

  63. jtblack says:

    “Now, tell me again why dealing the 2019 first-round selection is a good idea.”

    Its NOT a good idea.

    Edm should be picking Top 10. If the Ping Pong Balls bounce right, it could be Top 5. Keep it and hope you draft an Impact Player

  64. OriginalPouzar says:

    That certainly was disappointing last night.

    I see alot of talk/posts about effort but, to me, I don’t question their effort, I question execution which is highly related to ability (and its clear that management hasn’t provided enough “ability”).

    I also question the coaching – the lines were rolling in the first period offensively – top 3 lines were skating well and creating posession shifts – I don’t now why Hitchcock felt the need to change things up – overcoaching in my opinion.

    Why is Rattie removed from 1RW – he was skating well early and contributing including the primary assist on a talented “know how to play with McDavid” play.

  65. OmJo says:

    Since we’re taking trades and I’m kind of wanting attention this morning, gonna repost this from another thread earlier this week:

    My foolproof and total viable solution to fixing your Edmonton Oilers. They still haven’t contacted me with a job offer yet but they’re probably just busy. I don’t trade just one, but two first round picks because sometimes you gotta double down on life and say frick it!

    OmJo:
    For shits and giggles…

    To Boston ($9.425M)
    C Leon Draisaitl ($8.5M)
    RW Jesse Puljujarvi ($0.925M)
    EDM 4th Round Pick 2019

    To Edmonton (7.529)
    RW David Pastrnak ($6.666M)
    LW Jake DeBrusk ($0.863)

    Cap space: $2.23M + $9.425M – $7.529M = $4.126M

    To St. Louis ($4.094)
    EDM 1st Round Pick 2019
    EDM 2nd Round Pick 2020
    LW Michael Ferland ($1.750M)
    LD Darnell Nurse ($3.20M)
    RW Kailer Yamamoto ($0.894M)

    To Edmonton ($13.250M)
    RW Vladamir Tarasenko ($7.500M)
    RD Dougie Hamilton ($5.750M)

    To Carolina ($6.720M)
    EDM 1st Round Pick 2020
    STL 1st Round Pick 2020
    LW Milan Lucic ($6M)
    RD Ethan Bear ($0.720M)
    RD Colton Parayko ($5.500M)

    Salary Cap: $4.126M + $6.720M + $4.094M – $13.250M = $1.690M

    To Philadelphia ($9.170M)
    G Cam Talbot ($4.170M)
    LW Ryan Spooner ($3.100M)
    RD Matt Benning ($1.900M)

    To Edmonton (9.830M)
    LW Wayne Simmonds ($3.980M)
    G Michael Neuvirth ($2.500M)
    RD Radko Gudas ($3.350M)

    Cap Space: $1.690M + $9.170M – $9.830M = $1.030M

    DeBrusk – McDavid – Pastrnak
    Simmonds – Nugent-Hopkins – Tarasenko
    Reider – Khaira – Rattie
    Russell – Brodziak – Kassian

    Klefbom – Larsson
    Jones – Hamilton
    Russell – Gudas

    Koskinen
    Neuvirth

  66. oilersjo says:

    Good afternoon. Another game we must find excuses for. We have a bunch of young men trying to become better people and players. Looking ahead. We have a bunch of hall of famers sitting around filling their heads with what once was . The boys on the bus are screwing these kids up by hanging around telling their stories of greatness. The game has changed,parity is a thing,caps are the new norm. Time to live in the present looking to the future and to hell with the past. A 67 year old fan who used to go to the gardens and a diehard fan fromday 1. What was is gone . What could be is getting smothered.

  67. JimmyV1965 says:

    Derek: I feel you.I mean never say never right?

    The last time this management team traded a first round pick they got Griffin Reinhardt in return though.

    Because this trade was so horrendously bad it colours all our perceptions of trading a first. It’s still mind blowing. We traded a 16th and a 33rd in a deep draft for nothing, zero, nada. Shocking.

  68. OriginalPouzar says:

    Anyways, I’m going to stay level-headed and, nope, I’m not going to catastrophize and spew vitriol and rehash old moves that we know were “not good”.

    The team wasted a great opportunity to take advantage of a great night on the out of town scoreboard. Guess what, so did each of the other 3 teams – and its not like they were playing “world-beater” hockey teams.

    Its clear that the teams the Oilers are battling with, MIN, DAL, ANA, even COL perhaps, have many warts as well. The “guesses” on a crazy .675 winning record the Oilers would need to get in the playoffs continue to mean nothing to me as none of the teams we are competing with seem able to go on such a run and it simply may not take such a run.

    The team remains 2 points out and simply needs one more win that those teams (or two of them, I think).

    On to the Buffalo game – Go Oilers!

  69. OmJo says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Here is the WC via goal differential (includes SO & EN as per NHL)
    1 CGY 34
    2 WPG 27
    3 SJS 26
    4 NSH 26
    5 VGK 19
    6 COL 7
    7 DAL -1
    8 MIN -1
    9 ARI -8
    10 STL -13
    11 VAN -16
    12 EDM -18
    13 ANA -27
    14 LAK -31
    15 CHI -34

    The Oilers are as bad as the Golden Knights are good!

    Also, I think Los Angeles could use a shotblocking machine on their blueline.

    Also, I think St. Louis needs somebody to sit at the head of the dinner table.

    Also, I think Arizona is charitable enough to add Sekera to their LTIR list.

    Also, fire Chiarelli please and thank you.

  70. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    who:
    Last nights game was a statement about our roster.I thought the effort was there from a lot of players. And yet we still couldn’t beat a tier 2 team with half their players missing. Seems like the Oilers have plenty of support players. We just don’t have enough scoring players. IT’S THE ROSTER STUPID!
    Other than that you can probably blame the loss on goaltending and coaching.
    First goal was a point shot that went through Talbot. He may have been screened.
    Second goal was not bad luck. He was cleanly beaten from above the hash marks. It was in the top corner before it hit the guys face.
    Third goal was just bad luck.
    Game turned on coaches challenge. You cannot challenge that offside unless you are sure! Cost the Oilers 2 goals instead of just 1.

    But it was offside

  71. McSorley33 says:

    Jordan,

    Why would Ottawa,who is forced to sell their good players, want to pay
    Ryan Spooner and Brandon Manning to play hockey?

  72. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    That certainly was disappointing last night.

    I see alot of talk/posts about effort but, to me, I don’t question their effort, I question execution which is highly related to ability (and its clear that management hasn’t provided enough “ability”).

    I also question the coaching – the lines were rolling in the first period offensively – top 3 lines were skating well and creating posession shifts – I don’t now why Hitchcock felt the need to change things up – overcoaching in my opinion.

    Why is Rattie removed from 1RW – he was skating well early and contributing including the primary assist on a talented “know how to play with McDavid” play.

    Agree. He panicked with shuffling the lines after the 2 goals.
    Disagree. Did not see a consistent level of effort for 3 periods. Again.

  73. JimmyV1965 says:

    Bling:
    Don’t trade the first rounder.

    Even with a significant addition (not that I trust Chia to do that), you’re only barely moving the needle to make the playoffs. Not worth it.

    Need to wait until the off-season to replace the GM and get rid of the dead wood.

    By next training camp, Yamamoto/Benson will be ready.

    Bottom six has to be rebuilt for sure.

    IMO this is a trap the Oil keep falling into. We assume Yama and Benson will be ready next year when there really is no reason to think that. To compound the issue, we slot these guys into a top-six role to start the season and hope they can carry the load. We not only bring these guys up too early, but we give them a ridiculous amount of responsibility for solving scoring problems. This puts way too much pressure on them at a young age and further impairs their ability to develop. We have to figure out a way to develop these guys where their scoring becomes a pleasant surprise, rather than an indispensable part of team success.

  74. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    New Lowetide: The Oilers are getting more good players from the farm; will these kids arrive in time to save Peter Chiarelli?

    Sorry I did not read this article, but my answer to this question is “No”.
    The “bad” this management team has done by unnecessarily bleeding talent by making VERY BAD trades and hand-cuffing possible future moves by creating contract and cap hell, does not outweigh the “good” of making some good decisions on drafts in the past 3 years, which may or may NOT provide the resources required to be a contender.

    It is getting harder and harder to watch these games.

  75. Gerta Rauss says:

    The loose drunk went home with the guy with the Iroc and the acid wash jeans

  76. Drew says:

    bendelson:
    I probably should have mentioned that was a date night last evening at Roger’s Place…
    It may have saved one or two of you ‘discriminating’ gamblers a few dollars…my bad.

    We enjoyed ourselves at the game, though I’m certain just about all of you could give a fuck and would much prefer an actual home victory.

    Ok then,

    What was the score?

  77. McSorley33 says:

    I believe this is the 3rd game in the last 5 that Hitchcock has questioned the degree of our effort….

  78. Wilde says:

    JimmyV1965:
    I would suggest we trade the first round draft pick because we cannot start the next season with three legit top six forwards. And as far as I can see, it’s the only real asset we have to move. The Oilers have traded first round draft picks twice in the last 20 years. The first time the results were good because we traded for Roloson. The second time the results sucked because we traded it, along with a high second round pick, for nothing. You can’t look at this trade as an example of why you don’t trade first round picks. To compound the issue, we traded the first in 2015, which turned out to be an exceptionally deep draft. You think someone would have realized that, but this is the Oil.

    There are many reasons not to trade the first round pick. If 2019 is an exceptionally deep draft, that’s a good reason not to do it. If Chia is the GM and mngt remains the same, that’s a good reason. But I see a lot of posters here sticking their fingers in the ears, stomping their feet and saying we can never trade the first round pick. That is not a reasonable response.

    This team does not have a history of trading first round picks. This team has a long, rich tradition of failing to develop players outside the first round. I’ve said it many times; this team can keep every first round pick from here to eternity and it will forever be a lottery team until it drafts and develops outside the first round.

    I consider myself a draft and develop guy. I understand team success will never happen until they figure this out. But you cannot simply state the first round pick is off limits every year. It’s unreasonable.

    i) Who makes up the coalition of foot-stompers?

    ii) There’s a way to start the next season with more than 4 top-six forwards without trading the first. Jesse Puljujärvi likely fills a spot by then, I’d argue he does already in a Zach Hyman sort of way. Particularly with Connor McDavid.

    iii) The first rounder is not the only real asset we have to move. In fact, it’s an asset that practically cannot be moved by itself. It requires more movement than just itself, because its value suggests that you’re trading it for a valuable player, ie one that takes up cap space. There is no cap space.

    JimmyV1965: This team does not have a history of trading first round picks. This team has a long, rich tradition of failing to develop players outside the first round. I’ve said it many times; this team can keep every first round pick from here to eternity and it will forever be a lottery team until it drafts and develops outside the first round.

    iv) The solution for a team that can’t get players outside of the first round is to trade their first rounder so they get no players? Nihilism will continue until the farm improves?

    Here’s the rub.

    Most people saying not to trade the first round pick are specifically talking about stuff like trading the first round pick for a piece to make the playoffs this spring. There’s also heavy Peter Chiarelli tags on what’s being said, which is fair as you mention.

    There’s also the discussion that sprung up after Bob’s tweet saying it should be the pick for a winger with term. Again, we’re capped out. Except also, the market’s narrower.

    The summer deal, like the Ehlers proposal? That’s something like Nurse + 1st. Depends on where the draft slot is.

    I don’t think anyone is just saying the first round pick is off limits forever no matter what. It’s all tangled in the fact that Chiarelli is the GM, the pick will likely be high, and the salary situation dictates that either you tarnish the value of the pick by attaching bad money, or you have to aim way higher because you’re attaching good money to the pick and then you have to be getting someone like Stone back or else you’re not actually improving the team for more than a year.

    The reality is, the good half of the roster is the young half. There’s no one currently in their late prime that’s worth taking risks in order to compete during their contributive years. They’re collectively awful. You want a cascade of good players peaking.

    This is a choice between competing for years 2-3 of the 97 contract, versus years 3-8.

    Here are the players on this roster that are 26 years old and up:

    Brodziak, Talbot, Russell, Koskinen, Lucic, Spooner, Kassian, Chiasson, Petrovic, Gravel, Spooner.

    There’s really no need to rush. We’re not going to win a trade involving the first rounder. It’s not that trading the first rounder is always bad always, it’s that we’re not going to win a trade involving the first rounder. So long as Chiarelli is the GM, it’s basically daydreaming.

  79. russ99 says:

    Wilde,

    I really could care less about winning a trade as long as we get some capable NHL players to help out our top 4.

    Sick of optics and fans needing to be proved right, winning is the only thing that matters – winning enough to keep Connor from jumping ship. I’d move anyone on the roster outside of Connor, Draisaitl, Nurse, Jones and Bouchard to get there, with obviously some players like Nuge, Klefbom, Larsson and the first rounders needing a quality return to move, which I’ll only trust the next GM to do.

    And anyone who sees Puljujarvi as a top 6 forward is smoking something funny. The ugly downside of draft and develop is what if they don’t pan out?? The only sure thing I see on this roster and in the system outside if the core is Jones, and maybe Bouchard if they don’t rush him, which they surely will if we don’t dump all the old boys in hockey ops this offseason.

  80. Fiveinatrailer says:

    There was a time when we traded FOR a first round pick and selected Alex Plante with that…
    At least that’s how I remember it. (Plus we got an older player from the first round!- Nilsson)

    If you could go back in time and trade the 2017 first round pick (yammer) for a player with term would you?

  81. Biggus Dickus says:

    LT is right. If Chiarelli could get a marginal scoring forward for a first and JP, he would have done it by now. Apparently NHL GMs are tired of playing fronthand-backhand with him.

    http://www.comedycentral.co.uk/key-and-peele/videos/fronthand-backhand-0

  82. leadfarmer says:

    McSorley33:
    I believe this is the 3rd game in the last 5 that Hitchcock has questioned the degree of our effort….

    People like his open verbal to the media,
    He’s going to get tuned out in the locker room in no time
    You can bag skate these guys all you want
    Your not going to turn these guys into 40 point players.

  83. dessert1111 says:

    I thought the game last night was ok overall. I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect much better with this team at this point.

    Because it’s such a weak year for the conference outside the tip 5 I think the Oilers still have a legitimate shot at the playoffs. I wouldn’t trade more than a mid round pick and a mid-level prospect for a rental. Something like Maroon for a 5th would give another look in the top 6 with someone who was successful there recently.

    I wouldn’t trade anything of value unless it’s a long term solution, and I don’t our GM is willing or able to think long term at the moment. As long as he’s still in the chair I am very nervous for any sort of trade where value moves. He keeps losing them.

    One of the funniest things is that we have a huge hole at 3C and he traded a competent 3C for a winger who can’t beat our our mediocre wingers. If he was supposed to be a winger here, what was the plan for 3C? And if the plan was for Spooner to be 3C, what happened?

    The lack of clear-headed planning continues to limit this team’s ceiling. Chia is not going to be reborn at this point. This must be obvious to whoever is in charge of firing him, I would hope.

  84. OmJo says:

    russ99: I really could care less about winning a trade as long as we get some capable NHL players to help out our top 4.

    This kind of logic results Hall for Larsson-type trades.

    Chiarelli, is that you?

  85. Wilde says:

    russ99:
    I really could care less about winning a trade as long as we get some capable NHL players to help out our top 4.

    Yeah, the implications of losing a trade means you don’t get that. That’s what losing a trade means.

    russ99:
    Sick of optics and fans needing to be proved right, winning is the only thing that matters – winning enough to keep Connor from jumping ship.

    Who’s giving a shit about optics? People saying to draft and develop are literally ignoring the optics. The optics on not making a win-now trade are that the team is extending a never-ending rebuild. The memes on staying the course write themselves. Therefore, keeping your powder dry is literally a move towards winning more in spite of the optics.

    Connor’s not jumping ship within the next year or two, and that’s all that’s needed to begin contending. The minute the team starts winning this is put to rest. He signed an eight year deal in a frozen city with a management team that traded the first guy he lived with in the NHL and widely (outside of Edmonton) had the reputation of being a buffoon. There’s also a lot for him to think about if his representation both pushed for and approved the Hockey Canada makeover.

    russ99:
    And anyone who sees Puljujarvi as a top 6 forward is smoking something funny.

    McDavid is better with Puljujärvi than he is without. McDavid plays in the top-six. Therefore, Puljujärvi can take up a spot in the top-six. Wow, that was fast and I didn’t even have to smoke anything. Don’t say shit like that, or at least don’t do it when you’re talking to me.

    russ99: The ugly downside of draft and develop is what if they don’t pan out??

    The ugly side of a trade is what if they don’t pan out??

  86. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    russ99:
    Wilde,

    I really could care less about winning a trade as long as we get some capable NHL players to help out our top 4.

    Sick of optics and fans needing to be proved right, winning is the only thing that matters – winning enough to keep Connor from jumping ship. I’d move anyone on the roster outside of Connor, Draisaitl, Nurse, Jones and Bouchard to get there, with obviously some players like Nuge, Klefbom, Larsson and the first rounders needing a quality return to move, which I’ll only trust the next GM to do.

    And anyone who sees Puljujarvi as a top 6 forward is smoking something funny. The ugly downside of draft and develop is what if they don’t pan out?? The only sure thing I see on this roster and in the system outside if the core is Jones, and maybe Bouchard if they don’t rush him, which they surely will if we don’t dump all the old boys in hockey ops this offseason.

    Smoking something funny is the only way I can watch this team these daze…

  87. Drew says:

    OmJo: This kind of logic results Hall for Larsson-type trades.

    Chiarelli,is that you?

    ^+1000

    they should be trying to win every trade, or at least having a net win in the trade. there has been far to much “immediate need versus the future” where they get 3rd pair dmen and 4th liners over paid and with other restrictions on their contracts.

  88. Pescador says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick: Smoking something funny is the only way I can watch this team these daze…

    You must be confused

  89. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Pescador: You must be confused

    Indeed. I am confused as to why so many people in Oilers management still have jobs 😉
    I have to laugh to prevent myself from crying.

  90. --hudson-- says:

    As a reference, the Flames bottom 6 is Bennett, Frolik, Jankowski, Mangiapane, Ryan and Czarnik. Three UFAs and three picks worse than Jesse Puljujarvi. None of these player types are rare or difficult to acquire. You could probably argue the Oilers already have 4 to 5 of these players at reasonable cap hits.

    I just don’t see the need to “blow this up.” The hardest piece to acquire imo is the GM and management team who has a vision for those player types. It won’t be hard because these GMs are rare or too expensive for the Oilers, I just imagine the owner and OEG are too blind to it. This may be an area where Hitchcock can help recruit the new GM.

  91. Bling says:

    –hudson–:
    As a reference, the Flames bottom 6 is Bennett, Frolik, Jankowski, Mangiapane, Ryan and Czarnik.Three UFAs and three picks worse than Jesse Puljujarvi.None of these player types are rare or difficult to acquire.You could probably argue the Oilers already have 4 to 5 of these players at reasonable cap hits.

    I just don’t see the need to “blow this up.”The hardest piece to acquire imo is the GM and management team who has a vision for those player types.It won’t be hard because these GMs are rare or too expensive for the Oilers, I just imagine the owner and OEG are too blind to it.This may be an area where Hitchcock can help recruit the new GM.

    That’s a pretty good bottom six, though, lol.

    Mangiapane and Jankowski are young and were legit scorers in the AHL. Bennett is a former top 5 pick who is effective in a checking role. Czarnik was highly sought after this past off-season and has a history of scoring well at evens.

    That’s a well-built squad they have down the highway.

  92. JimmyV1965 says:

    Wilde: i) Who makes up the coalition of foot-stompers?

    ii) There’s a way to start the next season with more than 4 top-six forwards without trading the first. Jesse Puljujärvi likely fills a spot by then, I’d argue he does already in a Zach Hyman sort of way. Particularly with Connor McDavid.

    iii) The first rounder is not the only real asset we have to move. In fact, it’s an asset that practically cannot be moved by itself. It requires more movement than just itself, because its value suggests that you’re trading it for a valuable player, ie one that takes up cap space. There is no cap space.

    iv) The solution for a team that can’t get players outside of the first round is to trade their first rounder so they get no players? Nihilism will continue until the farm improves?

    Here’s the rub.

    Most people saying not to trade the first round pick are specifically talking about stuff like trading the first round pick for a piece to make the playoffs this spring. There’s also heavy Peter Chiarelli tags on what’s being said, which is fair as you mention.

    There’s also the discussion that sprung up after Bob’s tweet saying it should be the pick for a winger with term. Again, we’re capped out. Except also, the market’s narrower.

    The summer deal, like the Ehlers proposal? That’s something like Nurse + 1st. Depends on where the draft slot is.

    I don’t think anyone is just saying the first round pick is off limits forever no matter what. It’s all tangled in the fact that Chiarelli is the GM, the pick will likely be high, and the salary situation dictates that either you tarnish the value of the pick by attaching bad money, or you have to aim way higher because you’re attaching good money to the pick and then you have to be getting someone like Stone back or else you’re not actually improving the team for more than a year.

    The reality is, the good half of the roster is the young half. There’s no one currently in their late prime that’s worth taking risks in order to compete during their contributive years. They’re collectively awful. You want a cascade of good players peaking.

    This is a choice between competing for years 2-3 of the 97 contract, versus years 3-8.

    Here are the players on this roster that are 26 years old and up:

    Brodziak, Talbot, Russell, Koskinen, Lucic, Spooner, Kassian, Chiasson, Petrovic, Gravel, Spooner.

    There’s really no need to rush. We’re not going to win a trade involving the first rounder. It’s not that trading the first rounder is always bad always, it’s that we’re not going to win a trade involving the first rounder. So long as Chiarelli is the GM, it’s basically daydreaming.

    So I guess you’re on board for trading the first round pick then. My apologies. I had you firmly in the foot stomping category. So I think we agree that trading the first round pick for a legit top six forward with term is a viable option then, provided we can divest some cap and Chia isn’t the guy making the trade.

    I have to admit I’m concerned you have JP slotted for the top six next year. Although I like JP, and would rather keep him than the first round pick, slotting him in the top six is really a rinse and repeat of what we always do; count on first line production from a kid who has not demonstrated he is capable of doing that.

    JP has 5 pts and 22 shots in his last 20 games. I think we’re doing him a disservice by saying he’s ready to play a top 6 role. It’s not fair to him and it’s not fair to the team.

  93. OriginalPouzar says:

    Guelph with 7 goals through 2 periods and no points for Samorukov (1 shot and plus 1) – I think the Durzi acquisition is really going to eat in to his offensive opportunities.

    After being, by far, the best player on the ice yesterday (my goodness was he good), Bouchard without a sniff on 4 London goals through 2 (plus 2 with 2 shots).

    Maksimov held off the scoresheet in the first as Niagara is down 4-1.

  94. Ryan says:

    leadfarmer: Absolutely.But Chias fine work has made that impossible.
    We’re stuck until Sekera Russell Kassian Spooner Manning contracts expire and hope new CBA lets us get rid of Lucic. Even if they won’t allow free buyouts maybe they change the rules regarding signing bonus buyouts

    I wouldn’t do it.

    I know Stone’s revered as a river-pushing piss-cutter around this blog.

    Stone’s the guy you would acquire if you were ready to compete for the cup right now today because his best years are now and in a few more you’ll be paying a premium with tail end of contract for a guy on the decline.

    Look at a guy like Derek Stepan as a comparable.

    He’s not as offensively gifted as Stone, but Arizona got one good year out of him while they were going nowhere and now they have a $6.5 player at under 0.5ppg.

  95. Tye says:

    Hahahahha! I’m watching the skills comp & Brandon Manning got beat by a 12yr old asian boy in the shooting accuracy contest!
    How much he making again? (FACEpalm)

  96. Scungilli Slushy says:

    jtblack:
    “Now, tell me again why dealing the 2019 first-round selection is a good idea.”

    Its NOT a good idea.

    Edm should be picking Top 10. If the Ping Pong Balls bounce right, it could be Top 5.Keep it and hope you draft an Impact Player

    Great point. It’s a different story trading a 20th down pick than a top 15 where this draft quality will still be around. Free high end player. Unless a really sweet deal comes along and being the Oilers it won’t.

  97. JimmyV1965 says:

    –hudson–:
    As a reference, the Flames bottom 6 is Bennett, Frolik, Jankowski, Mangiapane, Ryan and Czarnik.Three UFAs and three picks worse than Jesse Puljujarvi.None of these player types are rare or difficult to acquire.You could probably argue the Oilers already have 4 to 5 of these players at reasonable cap hits.

    I just don’t see the need to “blow this up.”The hardest piece to acquire imo is the GM and management team who has a vision for those player types.It won’t be hard because these GMs are rare or too expensive for the Oilers, I just imagine the owner and OEG are too blind to it.This may be an area where Hitchcock can help recruit the new GM.

    I agree with this. I think we’re a lot closer than people appreciate. Although we don’t have a Gio, I don’t hate our dmen. I also think our best prospects are dmen. Rebuilding the bottom six is not a monumental task. It’s the second line I’m worried about.

  98. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Ryan: I wouldn’t do it.

    I know Stone’s revered as a river-pushing piss-cutter around this blog.

    Stone’s the guy you would acquire if you were ready to compete for the cup right now today because his best years are now and in a few more you’ll be paying a premium with tail end of contract for a guy on the decline.

    Look at a guy like Derek Stepan as a comparable.

    He’s not as offensively gifted as Stone, but Arizona got one good year out of him while they were going nowhere and now they have a $6.5 player at under 0.5ppg.

    So many deals are for the memory of the player or the tail end. Hopefully down the road the Oilers are the ones selling high and restocking.

  99. OriginalPouzar says:

    From Willy Palov on twitter (Halifax Chronicle):

    Safin is rehabbing his injured hip. He didn’t play at the WJC but will be ready in plenty of time for the Q playoffs. Dube is not considered an import because his father is Canadian.

    ————————

    No true timeline but at least Safin should be healthy enough to get back in the lineup before the playoff – its getting close to a lost year for Ostap

  100. Drew says:

    Tye:
    Hahahahha! I’m watching the skills comp & Brandon Manning got beat by a 12yr old asian boy in the shooting accuracy contest!
    How much he making again? (FACEpalm)

    Hey, you haven’t been watching him for a while now (like Chia), so what do you know. lol

  101. Ryan says:

    JimmyV1965: So I guess you’re on board for trading the first round pick then. My apologies. I had you firmly in the foot stomping category. So I think we agree that trading the first round pick for a legit top six forward with term is a viable option then, provided we can divest some cap and Chia isn’t the guy making the trade.

    I have to admit I’m concerned you have JP slotted for the top six next year. Although I like JP, and would rather keep him than the first round pick, slotting him in the top six is really a rinse and repeat of what we always do; count on first line production from a kid who has not demonstrated he is capable of doing that.

    JP has 5 pts and 22 shots in his last 20 games. I think we’re doing him a disservice by saying he’s ready to play a top 6 role. It’s not fair to him and it’s not fair to the team.

    Agree about JP.

    That’s the crux of why I am skeptical about his career path.

    When we talk about late bloomers or guys that took awhile to turn into top six forwards, we’re talking about players that aren’t rushed into a league where they are unable to produce enough to earn top six spots and prime power play time in most cases.

    Gaudreau playing three years post draft for Boston College.

    Barzal playing two years in the WHL post draft…

    Connor playing a year in the big 10 and then season in AHL.

    Big minutes in lesser leagues honing their skills not floundering in limited minutes in the NHL.

    Guys that hit the ground running in the NHL.

    The Oilers have done a disservice to JP.

  102. OriginalPouzar says:

    Nurse with the hardest shot – clocked at 102mph and change.

    Rattie with the shooting accuracy

    Spooner the fastest skater

    Oubviously when McDavid doesn’t win the fastest skater, these things must get taken for what they are (although maybe Connor didn’t compete in that one to give others a chance).

    Nice to see Nurse with the hardest shot but it doesn’t mean much – i have posted a bunch of times that he does have a bomb when he has the time and space to walk in to it (as most NHL d-men do) but that is rarely the case in a game and, generally, the shots he is able to get off are below average.

  103. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    JimmyV1965: So I guess you’re on board for trading the first round pick then. My apologies. I had you firmly in the foot stomping category. So I think we agree that trading the first round pick for a legit top six forward with term is a viable option then, provided we can divest some cap and Chia isn’t the guy making the trade.

    I have to admit I’m concerned you have JP slotted for the top six next year. Although I like JP, and would rather keep him than the first round pick, slotting him in the top six is really a rinse and repeat of what we always do; count on first line production from a kid who has not demonstrated he is capable of doing that.

    JP has 5 pts and 22 shots in his last 20 games. I think we’re doing him a disservice by saying he’s ready to play a top 6 role. It’s not fair to him and it’s not fair to the team.

    Based on stats presented on this blog, he seems to “help McD”. If Hitch can continue to help JP develop this year (e.g., stay in his lane, drive to the net), it would seem a reasonable/possible in-house solution to RW on the top line.

  104. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Tye:
    Hahahahha! I’m watching the skills comp & Brandon Manning got beat by a 12yr old asian boy in the shooting accuracy contest!
    How much he making again? (FACEpalm)

    If there is video of that, please send to PC….

  105. OriginalPouzar says:

    Maksimov with a goal and an assist in the 2nd period (still lots of time to go) as Niagara narrows a former 3 goal deficit.

  106. OriginalPouzar says:

    Sounds like McDavid maybe isn’t participating at the skills due to being sick?

    Not officially confirmed but sounds like it so.

    Too bad for the kids that attend this event – I’m sure many are disapointed and I’m sure Connor wouldn’t do this unless he was really ill.

  107. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Darryl8843:
    I read all night about bad luck on the face goal. If Cam makes the save he doesn’t get the goal.

    The more I looked at that goal the more I thought it goes in whether buddy’s face is there or not.

  108. OriginalPouzar says:

    Didn’t Lucic get an assist last night? I thought one was awarded, was it taken away? I think he deserved one on merit and I need that assist for my “Lucic will produce 2G and 3P prior to the all-star break” prediction.

  109. McSorley33 says:

    JimmyV1965,

    Hmmmm…..we did this in September, let’s do it again for next year.

    McDavid, RNH and Drai…

    Fill in your prospective bottom 9 forwards.

  110. OriginalPouzar says:

    speeds:

    If a team were willing to acquire Sekera, Lucic, Spooner, and Manninh for the 1st, I think you would have to look at it.

    I vehemently disagree with throwing Sekera in to these types of trades.

    The assumption that Sekera now has a boat anchor contract is just that, an assumption. It has been an anchor for two seasons but, come February, that may no longer be the case.

    Sure, it may still be the case but we just don’t’ know and we are going to find out.

    There is every chance that it is not an anchor contract and may be one we want to keep (Reggie may still be a splendid player) – it may be a contract that could return valuable assets in a trade as well (again, Reggie may be a splendid player).

  111. OriginalPouzar says:

    Clarkenstein:
    Connor and Leon combined for one shot on goal.One.

    Leon tried hard last nigh (i saw full effort) but he had a very poor game – good effort, bad execution – it happens.

    McDavid is sick I believe -yes, again.

  112. OriginalPouzar says:

    speeds:
    drglen,

    It could just not be there yet.

    For arguments sake, would people look at a trade for Stone involving EDMs first if an extension were part of the deal?

    Word is that extension will be $9M plus.

    How in the world do we fit that in unless we are looking for a Wells/Starrett goaltending tandem.

    Also: expansion draft exempt asset out for an asset in that requires protection. Now the player before Jones on the protected list is available……

  113. Zelepukin says:

    OriginalPouzar: Leon tried hard last nigh (i saw full effort) but he had a very poor game – good effort, bad execution – it happens.

    McDavid is sick I believe -yes, again.

    Correct, McD, JK, Klef, Petro and Yamamoto didn’t participate.

  114. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    OriginalPouzar:

    Spooner the fastest skater

    Oubviously when McDavid doesn’t win the fastest skater, these things must get taken for what they are (although maybe Connor didn’t compete in that one to give others a chance).

    Maybe put Spooner on a line with the other Fastest Oiler…?

  115. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pescador: Not sure why this would be an issue, there are 8-9 bottom six forwards on the roster now & I don’t see that changing by next season

    WIth current roster construction, this team is set up to lose Caleb Jones (unless they want to leave one of Larsson, Klefbom or Nurse unprotected).

    Add in another protected asset and we are looking at Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, Nugent-Hopkins as potential expansion draft losses.

    The asset we lose in the SEA expansion draft if going to be material.

  116. OmJo says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Didn’t Lucic get an assist last night? I thought one was awarded, was it taken away?I think he deserved one on merit and I need that assist for my “Lucic will produce 2G and 3P prior to the all-star break” prediction.

    They gave it to Kassian.

    Watching the play again, it looks like Nuges pass hits Kassians stick before finding its way to Russell.

  117. OriginalPouzar says:

    flyfish1168:
    I feel we need to be active before the trade deadline. We should trade players out that can help out a contending team. Even if we retain a little bit of salary. Chaison as much as I like him, we can try and resign here next summer. I’m sure he would like to come back. We need to bring in picks and players that can help in the following years. But 1st of all can PC.

    Maybe that turns out to be the best courses of action but management is not going to start to sell assets when the team remains just 2 points out of the playoffs no matter how bad the team looks on the ice.

  118. OriginalPouzar says:

    dustrock: Yes. The number of players I refuse to move on this roster is very low. McDavid, Draisaitl, Klef, Larsson and Bouchard. Love Nuge but I’d be willing for the right move. Larsson looks like his back is an ongoing issue but the RHD is so bad you really can’t replace him.

    Based on what?

    He had a back issue last year and missed apx 20 games – he came back (after bereavement) and was a beast for the rest of the season. He left a practice early during training camp with tightness in his back – that is it – that is all that’s happened with his back.

    Every time Larsson has a poo game or two or lowered ice time, I read these posts about his back.

    There is zero evidence (that I have seen) of an on-going back issue.

  119. OriginalPouzar says:

    dustrock:
    The biggest fear for me is that Chiarelli, Nicholson et al believe that once you get into the playoffs, anything’s possible and we have as good a chance as anyone.

    Can really see that being tossed around.

    That is true if a team has plus goaltending – a hot tender can win a team a couple series….

  120. OriginalPouzar says:

    flyfish1168: I’m ok trading Adam. His back issues only compound with age. Plus we need a clean breakaway since he will always be associated with Hall.

    As per my previous post, what back issues?

    A player have a back issue one season and missing 20 games (give or take) does not mean its chronic.

    Where is the evidence of any sort of chronic issue?

    No, a weird pivot/turn one time and some uneven play are not evidence of back issues.

  121. flyfish1168 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Sounds like McDavid maybe isn’t participating at the skills due to being sick?

    Not officially confirmed but sounds like it so.

    Too bad for the kids that attend this event – I’m sure many are disapointed and I’m sure Connor wouldn’t do this unless he was really ill.

    Might be from celebrating his 22nd Birthday

  122. Dustylegnd says:

    dustrock: You give up the first if you’re a definite playoff team that feels there is a player out there that could help get you to the Cup.

    Only an idiot would trade the first for a chance to sneak into 8th and lose in the first round.

    Oh wait.

    Dom Luszczyszyn updated playoff probabilities as of this am, Oilers 24%

    We are not 1 player away from winning, we need a bonfide #1 tender, a PP QB, 3 puck moving D men and 3 more wingers that can score…..we also need PK players

    If indeed it is Katz insisting on the playoffs this year, we have a real real real problem

  123. OriginalPouzar says:

    russ99:
    Wilde,

    I really could care less about winning a trade as long as we get some capable NHL players to help out our top 4.

    Sick of optics and fans needing to be proved right, winning is the only thing that matters – winning enough to keep Connor from jumping ship. I’d move anyone on the roster outside of Connor, Draisaitl, Nurse, Jones and Bouchard to get there, with obviously some players like Nuge, Klefbom, Larsson and the first rounders needing a quality return to move, which I’ll only trust the next GM to do.

    And anyone who sees Puljujarvi as a top 6 forward is smoking something funny. The ugly downside of draft and develop is what if they don’t pan out?? The only sure thing I see on this roster and in the system outside if the core is Jones, and maybe Bouchard if they don’t rush him, which they surely will if we don’t dump all the old boys in hockey ops this offseason.

    I would respond with anyone that thinks a players development is done at 20 and can’t acknowledge the enormous amount of players that have developed in to top 6 players well after 20 is smoking something funny.

    The only reason (in my opinion) that any Oilers fan thinks that Jesse can’t become a top 6 player is because of draft pedigree and the spotlight and expectations that come therewith and because he’s been around the team for so long.

    He is essentially the same age as Yamamoto and Benson and younger than Marody.

    Have we put a cap on their potential?

  124. Gerta Rauss says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Didn’t Lucic get an assist last night? I thought one was awarded, was it taken away?I think he deserved one on merit and I need that assist for my “Lucic will produce 2G and 3P prior to the all-star break” prediction.

    I heard Nuge and Lucic announced over the PA, but they must have changed it later on

  125. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer: People like his open verbal to the media,
    He’s going to get tuned out in the locker room in no time
    You can bag skate these guys all you want
    Your not going to turn these guys into 40 point players.

    Nobody has been bag-skated.

    Allowing forwards who are playing 25 plus minutes a night to leave practice while the rest continue with drills is not bag-skating.

  126. flyfish1168 says:

    OriginalPouzar: As per my previous post, what back issues?

    A player have a back issue one season and missing 20 games (give or take) does not mean its chronic.

    Where is the evidence of any sort of chronic issue?

    No, a weird pivot/turn one time and some uneven play are not evidence of back issues.

    https://www.ninds.nih.gov/Disorders/Patient-Caregiver-Education/Fact-Sheets/Low-Back-Pain-Fact-Sheet

    Here is a little reading about back pain. AS most people are aware of back injuries, it gets easier to hurt it each time after you have hurt it once. Especially with age. If you have had surgery on the spine, scar tissue will develop. Removal of any herniated disc tissue to help elevate nerve pain becomes a slippery slope towards other forms of future spinal problems.

    How often does your body not feel 100%? I’m sure almost all players are playing with some sort of strain, stiffness or injury. But they play through it.

  127. Ryan says:

    OriginalPouzar: I would respond with anyone that thinks a players development is done at 20 and can’t acknowledge the enormous amount of players that have developed in to top 6 players well after 20 is smoking something funny.

    The only reason (in my opinion) that any Oilers fan thinks that Jesse can’t become a top 6 player is because of draft pedigree and the spotlight and expectations that come therewith and because he’s been around the team for so long.

    He is essentially the same age as Yamamoto and Benson and younger than Marody.

    Have we put a cap on their potential?

    Can you or anyone think of a player that’s a comp for JP in terms of a top six forward with draft pedigree who was rushed to the NHL, mostly played there while floundering to produce offense… was kept there in spite of struggling, then suddenly became a top six forward?

    The Oilers have really botched his development.

  128. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar: I vehemently disagree with throwing Sekera in to these types of trades.

    The assumption that Sekera now has a boat anchor contract is just that, an assumption.It has been an anchor for two seasons but, come February, that may no longer be the case.

    Sure, it may still be the case but we just don’t’ know and we are going to find out.

    There is every chance that it is not an anchor contract and may be one we want to keep (Reggie may still be a splendid player) – it may be a contract that could return valuable assets in a trade as well (again, Reggie may be a splendid player).

    Given his injury history, it’s a contract no one will take making it a anchor contract even if he recovers some value it will not be 5.5 million worth and won’t be close
    Hoping he still is a 4 mil dollar player

  129. Bulging Twine says:

    16 games to the trade deadline

  130. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar: Based on what?

    He had a back issue last year and missed apx 20 games – he came back (after bereavement) and was a beast for the rest of the season.He left a practice early during training camp with tightness in his back – that is it – that is all that’s happened with his back.

    Every time Larsson has a poo game or two or lowered ice time, I read these posts about his back.

    There is zero evidence (that I have seen) of an on-going back issue.

    No back issue. This is not a player you carry into his 30s though. Lots of hard miles on that body. When he loses a step it’s going to be rough

  131. JimmyV1965 says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick: Based on stats presented on this blog, he seems to “help McD”. If Hitch can continue to help JP develop this year (e.g., stay in his lane, drive to the net), it would seem a reasonable/possible in-house solution to RW on the top line.

    I’m no different than most people. I entered the season hoping Yama, JP or Rattie would be a scoring solution on the wing. I think that’s the issue; we have to stop writing these guys into the top six and hoping and expecting them to be scoring solutions. We need a bonafide, real solution. And then slot the kids wherever and if they deliver offence it’s a bonus, not a hope or expectation.

  132. JimmyV1965 says:

    OriginalPouzar: WIth current roster construction, this team is set up to lose Caleb Jones (unless they want to leave one of Larsson, Klefbom or Nurse unprotected).

    Add in another protected asset and we are looking at Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, Nugent-Hopkins as potential expansion draft losses.

    The asset we lose in the SEA expansion draft if going to be material.

    As of today, there are three forwards I’m worried about losing in expansion. Adding JP and Yama to that list is wishful thinking. I hope they are material by then, but I don’t count on it.

  133. leadfarmer says:

    flyfish1168: https://www.ninds.nih.gov/Disorders/Patient-Caregiver-Education/Fact-Sheets/Low-Back-Pain-Fact-Sheet

    Here is a little reading about back pain. AS most people are aware of back injuries, it gets easier to hurt it each time after you have hurt it once. Especially with age. If you have had surgery on the spine, scar tissue will develop. Removal of any herniated disc tissue to help elevate nerve pain becomes a slippery slope towards other forms of future spinal problems.

    How often does your body not feel 100%? I’m sure almost all players are playing with some sort of strain, stiffness or injury. But they play through it.

    Yes but back muscle injuries heal. I’m sure you’ve had back pain for a few days and it got better.
    I don’t think Larsson has had a spinal fusion herniated disc or any other nerve impingement
    Here’s his back issue this year
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbssports.com/fantasy/hockey/news/oilers-adam-larsson-dealing-with-minor-back-issue/amp/
    Something very minor
    He does not accelerate quickly or always turn the best and people make stuff up that his back is acting up

  134. flyfish1168 says:

    leadfarmer: Yes but back muscle injuries heal.I’m sure you’ve had back pain for a few days and it got better.
    I don’t think Larsson has had a spinal fusion herniated disc or any other nerve impingement
    Here’s his back issue this year
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbssports.com/fantasy/hockey/news/oilers-adam-larsson-dealing-with-minor-back-issue/amp/
    Something very minor
    He does not accelerate quickly or always turn the best and people make stuff up that his back is acting up

    Lets clear this up. I don’t know what type of back injury it was he had last year outside of what is reported. When you have muscle spasms that is a way your body is protecting itself. That itself is bad enough and can still be chronic

  135. Biggus Dickus says:

    OriginalPouzar: I would respond with anyone that thinks a players development is done at 20 and can’t acknowledge the enormous amount of players that have developed in to top 6 players well after 20 is smoking something funny.

    The only reason (in my opinion) that any Oilers fan thinks that Jesse can’t become a top 6 player is because of draft pedigree and the spotlight and expectations that come therewith and because he’s been around the team for so long.

    He is essentially the same age as Yamamoto and Benson and younger than Marody.

    Have we put a cap on their potential?

    There is some sort of cap on their potential. None will be all-stars. Every player not established by the end of ELC has some flaws. Benson may find a top 6 role. Marody maybe top 9, but both have their limitations. JP has shown he too is a limited player, and is unlikely to reach the 50pt mark his draft rank would suggest. He has top 6 upside, but he clearly is a B prospect at this point. I still think Yamamoto will find his way as a notable businessman.

  136. HT Joe says:

    Dustylegnd: If indeed it is Katz insisting on the playoffs this year, we have a real real real problem

    If indeed it is Katz insisting on playoffs this year, he’s gonna be disappointed.

  137. Ryan says:

    Ryan,

    The one guy that jumps into my mind is Barkov. Also Sam Bennett, Lawson Crouse

    Draft +1

    JP: 0.29 ppg
    Bennett: 1 ppg!!! (Ha. 1 gp)
    Barkov: 0.4 ppg
    Crouse: 0
    Magnus: 0.43

    Draft + 2

    JP: 0.31 ppg
    Bennett: 0.47 ppg
    Barkov: 0.51 ppg
    Crouse: 0.17 ppg
    Magnus: 0.2 ppg

    Draft +3

    JP: 0.21 ppg
    Bennett: 0.32 ppg
    Barkov: 0.89 ppg
    Crouse: 0.09
    Magnus 0.38 ppg

    Draft + 4

    Bennett: 0.32 ppg
    Barkov: 0.85 ppg
    Crouse: 0.23 ppg
    Magnus: 0.22 ppg

    Draft +5

    Bennett: 0.34
    Barkov: 0.99 ppg
    Magnus: 0.1 ppg

    What you see with Magnus is the career arc of a guy with draft pedigree who fails to ever take the step to produce top six offense. You get the push in opportunity and minutes on the basis initially of pedigree not merit. Then you reach a point where the pedigree doesn’t have enough currency to compensate for lack of merit and you lose that opportunity. His career as a top six option was over after his draft plus three season ended.

    We’ll soon reach that juncture with JP where you can’t keep playing him in the top six just because. He’ll have to produce more than 1 point per hour in the top six or he’ll have to carve out a bottom six role for himself to stay in the league.

  138. Professor Q says:

    Why can’t Katz just own up and fire them all?

    *he says into the void*

  139. Professor Q says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Guelph with 7 goals through 2 periods and no points for Samorukov (1 shot and plus 1) – I think the Durzi acquisition is really going to eat in to his offensive opportunities.

    After being, by far, the best player on the ice yesterday (my goodness was he good), Bouchard without a sniff on 4 London goals through 2 (plus 2 with 2 shots).

    Maksimov held off the scoresheet in the first as Niagara is down 4-1.

    I just saw your update on ON as well. I appreciate your updates, especially when I can only watch the games so infrequently throughout the year.

  140. Pescador says:

    JimmyV1965: I’m no different than most people. I entered the season hoping Yama, JP or Rattie would be a scoring solution on the wing. I think that’s the issue; we have to stop writing these guys into the top six and hoping and expecting them to be scoring solutions. We need a bonafide, real solution. And then slot the kids wherever and if they deliver offence it’s a bonus, not a hope or expectation.

    That’s the way I feel about Benson, Yammo & McLeod.
    I have confidence in:
    XXX – 93 – 98 As a second line going into next season.
    Use a second round pick plus a LD prospect to acquire XXX.
    29 – 97 – Plug will be able to outscore the Opposition.
    Need an overhaul of the 3rd line, new GM

  141. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    JimmyV1965: I’m no different than most people. I entered the season hoping Yama, JP or Rattie would be a scoring solution on the wing. I think that’s the issue; we have to stop writing these guys into the top six and hoping and expecting them to be scoring solutions. We need a bonafide, real solution. And then slot the kids wherever and if they deliver offence it’s a bonus, not a hope or expectation.

    Aye, me too! I am just not ready to put a fork in JP yet. There are encouraging numbers there with 97, and he is only 20. The expectation that these issues will be solved without giving players enough time to work together is a problem. I don’t mind seeing a little line shuffling from time to time, but both coaches this year drive me crazy with the amount of movement in the line ups at the first sign of “whatever”. Move “a player” occassionally but not all pieces of the line at once as is often the case.

    I agree very poor development decisions on the organization for JP. I just don’t see a lot of options that don’t involve sacrificing draft picks b/c of the previous brutal decisions and the current cap and personnel situation. And I do not think giving up a first + to get a player that cannot fit in the cap is wise.
    Basically powder dry. Once this season Is lost, then start trading the appropriate assets for more prospects and draft picks.

  142. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Ryan:
    Ryan,

    The one guy that jumps into my mind is Barkov. Also Sam Bennett, Lawson Crouse

    Draft +1

    JP: 0.29 ppg
    Bennett: 1 ppg!!!(Ha. 1 gp)
    Barkov: 0.4 ppg
    Crouse: 0
    Magnus: 0.43

    Draft + 2

    JP: 0.31 ppg
    Bennett: 0.47 ppg
    Barkov: 0.51 ppg
    Crouse: 0.17 ppg
    Magnus: 0.2 ppg

    Draft +3

    JP: 0.21 ppg
    Bennett: 0.32 ppg
    Barkov: 0.89 ppg
    Crouse: 0.09
    Magnus 0.38 ppg

    Draft + 4

    Bennett: 0.32 ppg
    Barkov: 0.85 ppg
    Crouse: 0.23 ppg
    Magnus: 0.22 ppg

    Draft +5

    Bennett: 0.34
    Barkov: 0.99 ppg
    Magnus: 0.1 ppg

    What you see with Magnus is the career arc of a guy with draft pedigree who fails to ever take the step to produce top six offense. You get the push in opportunity and minutes on the basis initially of pedigree not merit. Then you reach a point where the pedigree doesn’t have enough currency to compensate for lack of merit and you lose that opportunity. His career as a top six option was over after his draft plus three season ended.

    We’ll soon reach that juncture with JP where you can’t keep playing him in the top six just because. He’ll have to produce more than 1 point per hour in the top six or he’ll have to carve out a bottom six role for himself to stay in the league.

    When has he consistently played in the top 6? And particularly without an anchor on the other side??

  143. McSorley33 says:

    The crowd in the ‘playoffs is still in reach’ room is definitely thinning….pretty quiet now.

    But, I think quite a few have moved over to the ‘ our team is close, just wait till you see
    our bottom 9 forwards Next Year’..room.

    Pencil in JP to make it 8 forwards to cheer on McDavid.

    No cap room you say…..easy.

  144. OriginalPouzar says:

    –hudson–:
    As a reference, the Flames bottom 6 is Bennett, Frolik, Jankowski, Mangiapane, Ryan and Czarnik.Three UFAs and three picks worse than Jesse Puljujarvi.None of these player types are rare or difficult to acquire.You could probably argue the Oilers already have 4 to 5 of these players at reasonable cap hits.

    I just don’t see the need to “blow this up.”The hardest piece to acquire imo is the GM and management team who has a vision for those player types.It won’t be hard because these GMs are rare or too expensive for the Oilers, I just imagine the owner and OEG are too blind to it.This may be an area where Hitchcock can help recruit the new GM.

    I agree.

    There is absolutely no need to blow this up with a talented core that is extremely young (and d-men find their prime a bit later than forwards, i.e. Klefbom and Larsson – add Bouchard and Nurse).

    “Rebuilding the bottom 6” is not a bit task. The big task is to plug the two top 6 forward and 2RD roles.

    Doing that externally likely requires cap space – something that the team will have within a couple of years if management doesn’t panic and makes smart and reasonable moves – do not bleed assets to get rid of contracts, not material assets, and do not trade 1st round picks for aging UFA year players.

  145. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bling: Mangiapane and Jankowski are young and were legit scorers in the AHL. Bennett is a former top 5 pick who is effective in a checking role. Czarnik was highly sought after this past off-season and has a history of scoring well at eve

    Mangiapane and Jankowski = Benson and Marody (Khaira, maybe Yamamoto, etc.)

    Bennett = Puljujarvi

  146. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ryan: Agree about JP.

    That’s the crux of why I am skeptical about his career path.

    When we talk about late bloomers or guys that took awhile to turn into top six forwards, we’re talking about players that aren’t rushed into a league where they are unable to produce enough to earn top six spots and prime power play time in most cases.

    Gaudreau playing three years post draft for Boston College.

    Barzal playing two years in the WHL post draft…

    Connor playing a year in the big 10 and then season in AHL.

    Big minutes in lesser leagues honing their skills not floundering in limited minutes in the NHL.

    Guys that hit the ground running in the NHL.

    The Oilers have done a disservice to JP.

    Yes, the Oilers may have done a diservice, however, those examples also go to show how much room there is still left – those players weren’t even in the NHL yet at Jesse’s age.

  147. Ryan says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick: When has he consistently played in the top 6? And particularly without an anchor on the other side??

    He’s played 186 minutes without McDavid, Nuge, or Draisatl on lines scoring 0.5/60 GF On and 3.14 gf on/60 against which is pretty epic.

    He’s played 210 minutes with Nuge which in this team is a reasonable proxy for top six minutes.

  148. OriginalPouzar says:

    flyfish1168: https://www.ninds.nih.gov/Disorders/Patient-Caregiver-Education/Fact-Sheets/Low-Back-Pain-Fact-Sheet

    Here is a little reading about back pain. AS most people are aware of back injuries, it gets easier to hurt it each time after you have hurt it once. Especially with age. If you have had surgery on the spine, scar tissue will develop. Removal of any herniated disc tissue to help elevate nerve pain becomes a slippery slope towards other forms of future spinal problems.

    How often does your body not feel 100%? I’m sure almost all players are playing with some sort of strain, stiffness or injury. But they play through it.

    That’s some nice medical data.

    There has been zero evidence that his back has provided him any issues this year. I’m sure he’s playing through many bumps and bruises (as all players are) but there is zero evidence that he has any sort of chronic back issue.

  149. Rondo says:

    Ryan Strome with another goal.

    Peter Chiarelli has made this team worse.

    Thank god for Peter Chiarelli getting those 2 d-men

  150. Ryan says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yes, the Oilers may have done a diservice, however, those examples also go to show how much room there is still left – those players weren’t even in the NHL yet at Jesse’s age.

    That’s apparently where we’re not on the same page.

    Your point while acknowledging a developmental failure of the Oilers is basically irrelevant. Those other players hit the ground running in the NHL after appropriate development trajectory.

    What matters is when the player loses their waiver eligibility relative to when they’re effective (or not) top six players.

    JP loses waiver exemption next season. He’s far from being a bonafide top six player.

    This is why we have a problem.

    He’s not on the Gaudreau time line, he’s on the Magnus timeline.

    Your point would be relevant if he had spent the last couple seasons cutting his teeth in SM Liiga.

  151. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ryan: Can you or anyone think of a player that’s a comp for JP in terms of a top six forward with draft pedigree who was rushed to the NHL, mostly played there while floundering to produce offense… was kept there in spite of struggling, then suddenly became a top six forward?

    The Oilers have really botched his development.

    Elias Lindholm

    Tom Wilson

    Just two that come to mind

  152. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer: Given his injury history, it’s a contract no one will take making it a anchor contract even if he recovers some value it will not be 5.5 million worth and won’t be close
    Hoping he still is a 4 mil dollar player

    Right now.

    In 6 weeks it could be a totally different story – hence why I am against throwing his name in there right now.

  153. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer: No back issue.This is not a player you carry into his 30s though.Lots of hard miles on that body.When he loses a step it’s going to be rough

    and that may be true and I won’t argue against that point.

    I’m just responding to random posts that pop up about his back that seem to have no basis in reality.

  154. tileguy says:

    Nice of Orleans to spot them 14 points and make the game interesting to watch. All over but the crying.

  155. JimmyV1965 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Mangiapane and Jankowski = Benson and Marody (Khaira, maybe Yamamoto, etc.)

    Bennett = Puljujarvi

    Totally agree. JP can become a very useful player. He might still become a legitimate scorer. If not, he can become a very useful bottom six player. I would hate to give up on the kid after investing three years of development.

  156. Lowetide says:

    For The Athletic: Edmonton’s offseason prospect procurement could be outstanding, but will they arrive on time to save the Oilers?

    https://theathletic.com/764695/2019/01/13/edmontons-offseason-prospect-procurement-could-be-outstanding-will-they-arrive-in-time-to-save-the-oilers/

  157. Pescador says:

    OriginalPouzar: WIth current roster construction, this team is set up to lose Caleb Jones (unless they want to leave one of Larsson, Klefbom or Nurse unprotected).

    Add in another protected asset and we are looking at Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, Nugent-Hopkins as potential expansion draft losses.

    The asset we lose in the SEA expansion draft if going to be material.

    It will/should be for all teams.
    Just as long as the new GM doesn’t try to get cute & do what Florida did.
    Protect the best 8 & let them pick.
    But you’re correct it will be painful, we haven’t watched a legit top 4D since 06′.
    That or JP

  158. Ryan says:

    Wilson was a mid first round pick. His calling card has more to do with skating fast, running around, and questionable hits that scoring points. I don’t think Wilson is a fair comp for JP because running around isn’t JP’s calling card.

    As for Elias Lindholm, let’s run the numbers again. He had 17 goals and just under half a point per game by his second season. I wouldn’t be worried about JP if he had those numbers.

    My point is that the clock on an NHL player’s career or potential career runs a lot faster when they’re thrown right into the NHL burning off their ELC and waiver exemption than when they marinate in lesser leagues.

    Draft +1

    JP: 0.29 ppg
    Bennett: 1 ppg!!!(Ha. 1 gp)
    Barkov: 0.4 ppg
    Crouse: 0
    Magnus: 0.43
    Lindholm: 0.36
    Yakupov: 0.65

    Draft + 2

    JP: 0.31 ppg
    Bennett: 0.47 ppg
    Barkov: 0.51 ppg
    Crouse: 0.17 ppg
    Magnus: 0.2 ppg
    Lindholm: 0.48
    Yakupov: 0.38

    Draft +3

    JP: 0.21 ppg
    Bennett: 0.32 ppg
    Barkov: 0.89 ppg
    Crouse: 0.09
    Magnus 0.38 ppg
    Lindholm: 0.48
    Yakupov: 0.41

    Draft + 4

    Bennett: 0.32 ppg
    Barkov: 0.85 ppg
    Crouse: 0.23 ppg
    Magnus: 0.22 ppg
    Lindholm: 0.63
    Yakupov: 0.38

    Draft +5

    Bennett: 0.34
    Barkov: 0.99 ppg
    Magnus: 0.1 ppg
    Lindholm: 0.54
    Yakupov: 0.23

  159. GCW_69 says:

    DBO:
    Our team has less talent and a bad cap situation. First order, Chia has to go.

    So do we do something Bold or keep our powder dry as LT is fond of saying?

    Probably more a summer move, but would anyone entertain moving Drai? Would you take Parayko and Schenn? More or less?

    Pai fully due to Pete we will have to add picks or prospects to move out salary. And to bring balance and cap relief it may cost Drai.God he has messed up this team. Seriously fire him please.

    The only player I would trade Leon for right now is MacKinnon.

    Otherwise the odds of losing the trade are high.

  160. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Ryan: He’s played 186 minutes without McDavid, Nuge, or Draisatl on lines scoring 0.5/60 GF On and 3.14 gf on/60 against which is pretty epic.

    He’s played 210 minutes with Nuge which in this team is a reasonable proxy for top six minutes.

    I dunno. I would like to see unicorns (Top 3 Cs playing C).
    From Natural Stat Trick… Based on last 3 years JP + McD have better #s together than McD + RNH together. JP + McD have better numbers than Chiasson + McD. JP + McD have better numbers than Rattie + McD together. JP does not seem to do very well with RNH and Drai.
    McD + Spooner have very good numbers together (limited sample size)…wonder how the 3 of them would do together….

    EDIT: If it isn’t horrible, give it 5-10 games….ffs

  161. JimmyV1965 says:

    GCW_69: The only player I would trade Leon for right now is MacKinnon.

    Otherwise the odds of losing the trade are high.

    Agreed. Our next trade must be us getting the best player. Not giving up the best player.

  162. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Limited time on the Natural Stat Trick Blender…for the unicorn dreamers…

    Spooner-McD-JP
    JJ-Drai-Rattie
    Lucic-RNH-Chiasson
    TR-Brod-Kass

    I would prefer to see Kass traded for futures and Marody/Gamb in there. I think there is a possibility he could be considered useful to a contender that needs a bit more “toughness”. If only he could give what he gave in the playoffs on a semi-regular basis…

  163. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    russ99,

    Sick of optics and fans needing to be proved right,

    You may want to avoid this website when Pete gets the pipe.

  164. OriginalPouzar says:

    WIN beats ANA in OT.

    Sucks that ANA gets a point against a good team but they were also in the lead with less than 10 to do so I’ll take it.

  165. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Mike Parkatti liked Elias Lindholm ALOT in his draft year.

    Said he had him rated above MacKinnon and Barkov LONG TERM.

    He knew he would be a long term project, similar to the Sedin’s who he compared well to.

    Here’s Lindholm’s 5v5 pts/60 so far in his career:

    Age Total Points/60
    19 1.16
    20 1.19
    21 1.06
    22 1.69
    23 1.47
    24 2.05

    Lindholm has a late birthday (Dec 2) birthday, so his first NHL season was his 19 year old year.

    Reminds me of this guy:

    Season Total Points/60
    18 1.45
    19 1.25
    20 1.05

    That’s JP, except it looks like JP might be tracking a bit better early.

    I was really hoping JP would have a break out year, but we’re past that.

    He still has a ton of skill and physical gifts dripping off of him, but he still looks “young” out there and doesn’t have NHL instincts yet, but you can see it coming.

    Its not like Lindholm was playing with stiffs in CAR either.

    Here’s his 4 most common forward mates during his first 3 seasons:

    Eric Staal 1131.0
    Jeff Skinner 1064.0
    Victor Rask 678.8
    Jordan Staal 670.2

    Here’s JP:

    With TOI With
    Milan Lucic 647.63
    Connor McDavid 390.97
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 367.93
    Ryan Strome 306.72

    Not stiffs either, but that first guy is a bit of an anchor.

  166. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV1965: As of today, there are three forwards I’m worried about losing in expansion. Adding JP and Yama to that list is wishful thinking. I hope they are material by then, but I don’t count on it.

    I’d be very surprised if either of those players are players that we don’t care about losing after two more seasons.

  167. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer: Yes but back muscle injuries heal.I’m sure you’ve had back pain for a few days and it got better.
    I don’t think Larsson has had a spinal fusion herniated disc or any other nerve impingement
    Here’s his back issue this year
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbssports.com/fantasy/hockey/news/oilers-adam-larsson-dealing-with-minor-back-issue/amp/
    Something very minor
    He does not accelerate quickly or always turn the best and people make stuff up that his back is acting up

    Are we actually agreeing on something?

  168. OriginalPouzar says:

    Biggus Dickus: There is some sort of cap on their potential. None will be all-stars. Every player not established by the end of ELC has some flaws. Benson may find a top 6 role. Marody maybe top 9, but both have their limitations. JP has shown he too is a limited player, and is unlikely to reach the 50pt mark his draft rank would suggest. He has top 6 upside, but he clearly is a B prospect at this point. I still think Yamamoto will find his way as a notable businessman.

    Yamamoto has accomplished less than Puljujarvi in the NHL and is 4 months younger.

    Sure, Yamamoto is in the first year of his ELC and Jesse his last but they are essentially the same age.

    I’m not sure it makes sense to be able to put a more certain cap on Jesse’s potential but not Yamamoto’s.

  169. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Ryan,

    Ha! I didn’t even see your post when I did mine.

    I don’t use points/per game as not all players get the same PP time, it really skews things.

    I use 5v5 pts/60, it evens the playing field much better.

    I also use age-year as that important when discussing players under 24.

    When one player is 2 months from being draft eligible in the previous year and the next guy is 2 months from being draft eligible in the following year that’s a big deal at these ages.

  170. OriginalPouzar says:

    Rondo:
    Ryan Strome with another goal.

    Peter Chiarelli has made this team worse.

    Thank god for Peter Chiarelli getting those 2 d-men

    Yup, along with CF% and a FF% each around 42%, a negative CFRel, HDCF% of 25% and a GF% of 50%.

    Numbers reminiscent of one Drake Caggiula……. lamented for that type game, game over game.

  171. Glovjuice says:

    Obscured by Terrible Decisions. The Pink Floyd soundtrack for Oilers futility. LT is a genius

  172. Jethro Tull says:

    OriginalPouzar: WIth current roster construction, this team is set up to lose Caleb Jones (unless they want to leave one of Larsson, Klefbom or Nurse unprotected).

    Add in another protected asset and we are looking at Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, Nugent-Hopkins as potential expansion draft losses.

    The asset we lose in the SEA expansion draft if going to be material.

    Losing a player to expansion is not an excuse to not improve the team and is absolutely by definition “Smartest Guy in the Room” thinking, up there with deliberately sabotaging a player in order to pay them less in a contract negotiation.

    If we lose a good young player to expansion, it means we have other good youngs players.

  173. Biggus Dickus says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yamamoto has accomplished less than Puljujarvi in the NHL and is 4 months younger.

    Sure, Yamamoto is in the first year of his ELC and Jesse his last but they are essentially the same age.

    I’m not sure it makes sense to be able to put a more certain cap on Jesse’s potential but not Yamamoto’s.

    Maybe you didn’t read what I wrote carefully. I put a much harsher cap on Kailer.

  174. ashley says:

    Tkachuk 46gp,21-32-52. Ouch. Was he even on the radar in the draft? It would have been better if the Finn drafted the Finn. I wonder who we would have taken. If not Tkachuk, maybe Sergachev?

    In addition to all the trade whiffs outlined above, this has to be included as part of the present problem. We badly needed a 4OV pick to work out like a 4OV pick that year.

  175. Jethro Tull says:

    Glovjuice:
    Obscured by Terrible Decisions. The Pink Floyd soundtrack for Oilers futility. LT is a genius

    He is, but I’d rather he’d save Copperhead Road for a special occasion.

    If your into it, I love Steve Earle’s new bluegrass stuff.

  176. Gerta Rauss says:

    Jethro Tull: Losing a player to expansion is not an excuse to not improve the team and is absolutely by definition “Smartest Guy in the Room” thinking, up there with deliberately sabotaging a player in order to pay them less in a contract negotiation.

    If we lose a good young player to expansion, it means we have other good youngs players.

    I agree with this- the best expansion draft strategy is to have a surplus of good players

  177. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jethro Tull: Losing a player to expansion is not an excuse to not improve the team and is absolutely by definition “Smartest Guy in the Room” thinking, up there with deliberately sabotaging a player in order to pay them less in a contract negotiation.

    If we lose a good young player to expansion, it means we have other good youngs players.

    Its not an excuse to not improve the team but it must be, 100%, a factor when making transactions until the draft is complete – for management to ignore such short-medium term implications would be egregious and a fireable offence on its own.

    Making the team better now is primary but it cannot be done without a view of to the medium and long term.

  178. Gerta Rauss says:

    ashley:
    Tkachuk 46gp,21-32-52.Ouch.Was he even on the radar in the draft?It would have been better if the Finn drafted the Finn.I wonder who we would have taken.If not Tkachuk, maybe Sergachev?

    In addition to all the trade whiffs outlined above, this has to be included as part of the present problem.We badly needed a 4OV pick to work out like a 4OV pick that year.

    This is not directly related to your comment Ashley, but Burke said on TV last week that the Flames would have taken JP had he dropped to 6

    I’m not sure how the Vancouver pick at 5 would have altered things (if anything) I’m just saying

    But point taken about a 4OV pick

  179. OriginalPouzar says:

    Biggus Dickus: Maybe you didn’t read what I wrote carefully. I put a much harsher cap on Kailer.

    Exactly my point – you put a much higher cap on Yamamoto who has accomplished less than Puljujarvi and is essentially the same age. You posit that the book is essentially written on Puljujarvi but give Yamamoto more blank pages – they are the same age (for all intents and purposes) and Yamamoto hasn’t accomplished anything offensively at the NHL level.

  180. drglen says:

    hold on JP, hold on Kailer.
    dont’ trade the first.

    protect jones.

  181. Glovjuice says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    That certainly was disappointing last night.

    I see alot of talk/posts about effort but, to me, I don’t question their effort, I question execution which is highly related to ability (and its clear that management hasn’t provided enough “ability”).

    I also question the coaching – the lines were rolling in the first period offensively – top 3 lines were skating well and creating posession shifts – I don’t now why Hitchcock felt the need to change things up – overcoaching in my opinion.

    Why is Rattie removed from 1RW – he was skating well early and contributing including the primary assist on a talented “know how to play with McDavid” play.

    I must confess that Hitch is treading very close to garnering the all talk tag from me and I was all go girl for the big man early on.

  182. drglen says:

    JimmyV1965: Totally agree. JP can become a very useful player. He might still become a legitimate scorer. If not, he can become a very useful bottom six player. I would hate to give up on the kid after investing three years of development.

    right. If he becomes bottom six, and paid as bottom six, that’s fine. That’s still good.

  183. Glovjuice says:

    JimmyV1965: Because this trade was so horrendously bad it colours all our perceptions of trading a first. It’s still mind blowing. We traded a 16th and a 33rd in a deep draft for nothing, zero, nada. Shocking.

    Worst trade in Oilers history in every way, including negative impact on the 5-8 years following the deal. No way in hell that the Satan trade negatively impacted the team this much. Even the 99 sale brought back good players. 16/33 brought back friggin zero- its mind bending.

  184. Biggus Dickus says:

    OriginalPouzar: Exactly my point – you put a much higher cap on Yamamoto who has accomplished less than Puljujarvi and is essentially the same age. You posit that the book is essentially written on Puljujarvi but give Yamamoto more blank pages – they are the same age (for all intents and purposes) and Yamamoto hasn’t accomplished anything offensively at the NHL level.

    No, I said he would be out of the league. He’s a scrub.

  185. Glovjuice says:

    dessert1111:
    I thought the game last night was ok overall. I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect much better with this team at this point.

    Because it’s such a weak year for the conference outside the tip 5 I think the Oilers still have a legitimate shot at the playoffs. I wouldn’t trade more than a mid round pick and a mid-level prospect for a rental. Something like Maroon for a 5th would give another look in the top 6 with someone who was successful there recently.

    I wouldn’t trade anything of value unless it’s a long term solution, and I don’t our GM is willing or able to think long term at the moment. As long as he’s still in the chair I am very nervous for any sort of trade where value moves. He keeps losing them.

    One of the funniest things is that we have a huge hole at 3C and he traded a competent 3C for a winger who can’t beat our our mediocre wingers. If he was supposed to be a winger here, what was the plan for 3C? And if the plan was for Spooner to be 3C, what happened?

    The lack of clear-headed planning continues to limit this team’s ceiling. Chia is not going to be reborn at this point. This must be obvious to whoever is in charge of firing him, I would hope.

    The Spooner trade is not funny. It’s a dark comedy of the epic proportion variety.

  186. OriginalPouzar says:

    drglen:
    hold on JP, hold on Kailer.
    dont’ trade the first.

    protect jones.

    We’ll have to see – maybe in two years we’ll want to protect Lagesson or Bear or maybe Persson or Berglund. I’m actually not exactly sure the protection/exempt status for those prospects playing pro in other leagues – Persson will need to be protected if they want (i.e. not exempt) but Berglund won’t be signing until this spring but is a pro.

    If that is the case, that we want to protect like 3-4 guys, well, that’s a good thing as we’ll be able to sustain the loss but, at the same time, maybe only 1 or 2 are worthy of protection but we lose them anyways because of interim moves.

  187. OriginalPouzar says:

    Glovjuice: I must confess that Hitch is treading very close to garnering the all talk tag from me and I was all go girl for the big man early on.

    I generally love what he has to say but I don’t see alot of what he says being implemented and, frankly, I’ve disagreed with his player deployment just as much as I did with McLellan in lots of ways.

  188. Glovjuice says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick: Smoking something funny is the only way I can watch this team these daze…

    I have been, and am looking forward to more, smokey funny with LESS Soilers and more music listeny and watchy like last night. Back to the 20’s me.

  189. Scungilli Slushy says:

    The Oilers are mostly lacking bottom 9 players that can help and are affordable.

    If JP becomes a very strong 2 way winger that has a cap hit that keeps him around, that is a great result. Connor needs wingers that can score but also do the hard work.

    Connor needs to work hard too, but a player of his calibre needs linemates that let him play to his max, not needing him to do the work they don’t /can’t do well enough.

    Like Kurri, but not a 70 goal scorer because Leon has the other big forward contract on this roster. If JP is a 20 G 60 P guy, can skate, is a possession driving outscorer, maybe that is the best outcome for what the team actually needs.

  190. ChiliChunk says:

    Ryan: Can you or anyone think of a player that’s a comp for JP in terms of a top six forward with draft pedigree who was rushed to the NHL, mostly played there while floundering to produce offense… was kept there in spite of struggling, then suddenly became a top six forward?

    The Oilers have really botched his development.

    A player that comes to mind for me is Josh Bailey. Produced better than JP during the floundering stage but took a long time to really become a significant offensive contributor.

  191. anjinsan says:

    Chia-rel-LEAVE!
    Chia-rel-LEAVE!!
    Chia-rel-LEAVE!!!

  192. Glovjuice says:

    OriginalPouzar: Mangiapane and Jankowski = Benson and Marody (Khaira, maybe Yamamoto, etc.)

    Bennett = Puljujarvi

    Bennet = Puli I can agree with but not Benson and especially Marody (can’t skate like the Flames guys). You have a good handle on all things hockey and Oil but are missing the boat on the need for at least average skating in the new NHL, which is evolving very quickly (well, since the 15 draft lol).

  193. Ryan says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Ryan,

    Ha! I didn’t even see your post when I did mine.

    I don’t use points/per game as not all players get the same PP time, it really skews things.

    I use 5v5 pts/60, it evens the playing field much better.

    I also use age-year as that important when discussing players under 24.

    When one player is 2 months from being draft eligible in the previous year and the next guy is 2 months from being draft eligible in the following year that’s a big deal at these ages.

    Yeah, we’re looking at the same thing in slightly different ways. 🙂

    I like to forgo nuance about age because I prefer to weigh years post-draft as it more accurately reflects waiver exemption status (for players that go straight into the NHL). I think though have no evidence to prove that the Dan Hodgson effect is more profound in junior hockey than at the NHL level.

    The downside to using a stronger lense like 5v5/60 is that you can lose sight of the big picture.you also lose Toi/GP which I feel is an important measure as the coach’s valuation of a player.

    I appreciate you trying to allay and assuage our concerns. Look at Puljujarvi, he’s on a team in his draft plus three that’s nearly devoid of any scoring wingers yet he’s only getting twelve minutes and 17 seconds per game all states. That’s a concern for me both from a developmental standpoint as well as from a coach’s flashlight.

    Elias Lindholm averaged 18 minutes and five second per game in his draft plus three. He was playing on both special teams including 50 seconds per game on the PK.

    Bennett was getting 15 minutes per game in his draft plus 3. Over a minute per game on the PK.

    Yakupov was over 15 minutes.

    Either way, JP’s getting 22 seconds on the PP per game, so I don’t think the development plan is optimal. He’s not trusted to kill penalties.

    For highly touted lottery pick players that go straight in the NHL, my main point is that they get a long push due to pedigree, but there reaches a point where the rubber has to hit the road in terms of producing offense. Draft plus four seems to be a crucial year.

  194. Glovjuice says:

    Jethro Tull: He is, but I’d rather he’d save Copperhead Road for a special occasion.

    If your into it, I love Steve Earle’s new bluegrass stuff.

    All his stuff is worthy. I have Terraplane and it’s great. Don’t have his latest from 17 though yet. Odd trivia. His show from about 2000 at the Winspear is the only show that had been too loud for me.

  195. Ryan says:

    ChiliChunk: A player that comes to mind for me is Josh Bailey. Produced better than JP during the floundering stage but took a long time to really become a significant offensive contributor.

    Yeah Bailey did have a pretty late spike in offense for his age.

    He played a ton with Tavares last year and Barzal this season.

  196. Glovjuice says:

    Flames win 7-1. The tragedy is unfolding.

  197. jp says:

    Ryan:

    My point is that the clock on an NHL player’s career or potential career runs a lot faster when they’re thrown right into the NHL burning off their ELC and waiver exemption than when they marinate in lesser leagues.

    Draft +1

    JP: 0.29 ppg
    Bennett: 1 ppg!!!(Ha. 1 gp)
    Barkov: 0.4 ppg
    Crouse: 0
    Magnus: 0.43
    Lindholm: 0.36
    Yakupov: 0.65

    I’m confused. Bennett, Crouse and MPS all played draft +1 outside the NHL. So they aren’t good comps for lack of time to marinate, right?

    JP is pretty rare since not many teams keep unproductive young players in the NHL year over year over year. Based on your original criteria there’s a rather small pool of players to choose comps from.

    If you allow for guys who remained relatively unproductive through draft +3, there are quite a few who eventually turned it around. The following were all top 10 picks who broke out after their draft +3 (and had at least 2 NHL seasons before gaining real traction):

    Jonathan Drouin
    Ryan Johansen
    Josh Bailey
    Kyle Turris
    Andrew Ladd
    The Sedin brothers
    Olli Jokinen

    And to a lesser degree:
    Mika Zibanejad
    Mark Scheifele
    Sean Couturier
    Nino Niederreiter
    Brayden Schenn
    Nazem Kadri

    Also Blake Wheeler managed 3 college seasons without hitting 1 PPG after being drafted, but he’s alright.

    None of this means JP is destined for greatness. But it also doesn’t mean he’s destined to fail based on where he is at age 20.

    BTW, I agree generally that this isn’t a great developmental plan. Just trying to show that it may not be terminal. Without a doubt JP needs to start producing at some point, but there’s still some time for that to happen.

  198. geowal says:

    Just back from the Flames / Coyotes game. Man, tough night for the Coyotes goalie. Beyond that, it’s amazing how easy it is for the Flames to gain the zone, compared to how excruciatingly difficult it is for the non-McDavid Oilers to do the same (and even he struggles with the triple team).
    Sigh.

  199. hunter1909 says:

    Oilers are like getting coal for Christmas.

  200. hunter1909 says:

    geowal:
    Just back from the Flames / Coyotes game. Man, tough night for the Coyotes goalie. Beyond that, it’s amazing how easy it is for the Flames to gain the zone, compared to how excruciatingly difficult it is for the non-McDavid Oilers to do the same (and even he struggles with the triple team).
    Sigh.

    There’s that Flames feeling of near panic at the idea of a McDavid/Hall led Oilers resuming the lopsided relationship driving them on. Fortunately, providentially for them Chiarelli continues to be the GM of the Oilers. The others continue to suck up to Katz and collect their checks.

    If this wasn’t an Oilers blog I’d think about saying I want them to win a cup just to piss Katz and his tools more than I ever could.

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