Game 47 2018-19: Oilers at Canucks

by Lowetide

There are four forwards who are over 1.50 points-per-60 at 5-on-5 since Ken Hitchcock arrived in Edmonton. One of them is Jujhar Khaira. The addition of Colby Cave via waivers may allow Khaira to rejoin the line (with Nuge and Jesse Puljujarvi) that seemed to have substantial chem a few weeks ago. The Cave addition received a surprising amount of negative reaction, for me it’s exactly the kind of deal fans should be pleased the Oilers are pursuing. This isn’t a Stanley Cup team. The Oilers aren’t one final piece from locking in as a strong contender. Miles away.

THE ATHLETIC

The Athletic Edmonton is going to bring it all season long. Proud to be part of a lineup that is ready to cover the coming year. Outstanding coverage from a large group, including Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis, Lowetide, Minnia Feng and Pat McLean. If you haven’t subscribed yet, now’s your chance. Outstanding offer is here.

OILERS AFTER 47

  • Oilers in 2015: 19-23-5, 43 points; goal differential -22
  • Oilers in 2016: 25-15-7, 57 points; goal differential +7
  • Oilers in 2017: 21-23-3, 45 points; goal differential -24
  • Oilers in 2018: 22-21-3, 47 points; goal differential -7

The 2018 McDavid Oilers remain unique in this set of four, boasting the second best goal differential and point total, while still standing (as of this morning) just outside the playoffs.

OILERS IN JANUARY

  • Oilers in January 2016: 4-2-2, 10 points; goal differential 0
  • Oilers in January 2017: 5-3-0, 10 points; goal differential 0
  • Oilers in January 2018: 4-4-0, eight points; goal differential -8
  • Oilers in January 2019: 4-3-0, eight points; goal differential 0

January each season tracks in a similar way, at least through the middle of the month. These games had little importance in 2016, and the club was rolling in 2017. This year is somewhat unique, in that the period in Oilers history we’re living through now involves games that matter every night. In January. Over the last dozen years, that’s rare.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM JANUARY

  • On the road to: Arizona, Los Angeles, Anaheim, San Jose (Expected 2-2-0) (Actual 2-2-0)
  • At home to: Florida, Arizona, Buffalo (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 2-1-0)
  • On the road to: Vancouver (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Calgary, Carolina, Detroit (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 4-5-2, 10 points in 11 games
  • Current results: 4-3-0, eight points in seven games

I have tonight as a loss, the Oilers haven’t played well this season against the Canucks (two losses, 4-8 goals) and the Canucks defend McDavid in all three zones. We’ll see if things change. Sometimes another team has your number and it’s difficult to find a way around it. In the last game, the Canucks blew the doors off with four goals in the first period, including two in the last couple of minutes in the period.

OILERS FORWARDS 5-ON-5 PTS/60 SINCE HITCHCOCK ARRIVED

There are 372 NHL forwards who have played 139 or more 5-on-5 minutes since Ken Hitchcock was hired. That’s the number of forwards who dress for the 31 teams in total for a game (31×12=372). We’re always talking about No. 1 centers and third line players, where do the current Oilers rank? Here we go:

This is all via Natural Stat Trick. There’s no real benefit from this exercise, but if someone says “Nuge is a third line center” you can go about your business secure in the knowledge they’re a nut job. Colby Cave is right where Kyle Brodziak lives (0.81).

CURRENT 50-MAN

All of these waiver pickups and trades are adding to the 50-man list for next season. What does that mean? The RFA’s on this list are going to get squeezed. Edmonton will likely sign Ryan McLeod in the coming days, along with Filip Berglund, Hayden Hawkey and others possibly turning pro. What does that mean for the RFA’s (asterisks)? Edmonton needs more room, ideally they find more by the end of the deadline by sending some of these contracts out.

COLBY CAVE

I had Cave ranked No. 81 in 2014, liked his underlying numbers and a scouting report that suggested a range of skills (I had Ondrej Kase No. 60 btw). I hope it allows Khaira to move over and play LW, but Cave is a No. 4 center, that’s Brodziak’s job. I think we could see another center in town by the deadline.

GOALIES

Oilers moved Stuart Skinner to Bakersfield and Dylan Wells to Wichita (people train runs through Stubbville, though) yesterday, a small shuffle but important to each man’s development. Shane Starrett has taken over the starting role for the Condors recently, Wells was in that role not so long ago. Al Montoya is a distant bell now, hasn’t played since the end of November.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy morning on the show, starts at 10, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal. The game tonight, the trade deadline to come and young Puljujarvi’s future.
  • Jon Campbell, OddsShark. We’ll talk NFL weekend, McDavid Art Ross and the crazy race for the final spot in the Western Conference of the NHL.
  • Dan Ralph, The Canadian Press. The Roughriders have no head coach and it’s damned near February.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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Rube Foster

Ivan: YES! I said the exact same thing. We can hope!

Me three!

If Cave plays like a young Dave Hunter It would be manna from heaven.

Woodguy v2.0

Pescador: I especially enjoyed the segments on Oilers now where you explained advanced stat definitions. And then proceeded to lay waste to the Hall & Nuge detractors.
If I was to give your radio hits some sort of scouting analysis I’d say
Woodguy delivers the goods every time he steps into the fire. He has a way of explaining advanced hockey terminology in a simplistic manner. His joe 6 pack approach to hockey analytics is a refreshing change & helps the listener understand what stats are & what they are telling us.
I also enjoy his pure & utter disdain for the host of whichever show he finds himself on.
Still hoping for a block function on the blog.

Ha!

Thanks.

I like LT and Bob so I think disdain is way too strong a word, but I wasn’t afraid to disagree.

The closest to disdain is when LT would ask one question and then I’d change the subject to my particular hobby horse that week.

Pescador

Woodguy v2.0: Thank you.

Might be on a round table with LT when he has one.

Other than that I don’t plan on being on the radio at all.

To prep properly takes time I don’t really have these day, very busy with work.

And honestly the vitrol towards me on twitter (and other places, not here) was starting to bug me.

When you gain a little bit of profile it makes you a target.

I’ve decided to block everyone who is a dink and that has helped.

I especially enjoyed the segments on Oilers now where you explained advanced stat definitions. And then proceeded to lay waste to the Hall & Nuge detractors.
If I was to give your radio hits some sort of scouting analysis I’d say
Woodguy delivers the goods every time he steps into the fire. He has a way of explaining advanced hockey terminology in a simplistic manner. His joe 6 pack approach to hockey analytics is a refreshing change & helps the listener understand what stats are & what they are telling us.
I also enjoy his pure & utter disdain for the host of whichever show he finds himself on.
Still hoping for a block function on the blog.

Jethro Tull

Wilde:
I will not mentally break down about deployment an hour after a win. I will not mentally break down about deployment an hour after a win. I will not mentally break down about deployment an hour after a win. I will not mentally break down about deployment an hour after a win. I will not mentally break down about deployment an hour after a win. I will not mentally break down about deployment an hour after a win. I will not mentally break down about deployment an hour after a win. I will not mentally break down about deployment an hour after a win. I will not mentally break down about deployment an hour after a win. I will not mentally break down about deployment an hour after a win. I will not mentally break down about deployment an hour after a win. I will not mentally break down about deployment an hour after a win. I will not mentally break down about deployment an hour after a win.

“I sense you’re concerned about deployment.” Deanna Troi, Blog Counselor

Jethro Tull

Wilde:
I will not mentally break down about deployment an hour after a win. I will not mentally break down about deployment an hour after a win. I will not mentally break down about deployment an hour after a win. I will not mentally break down about deployment an hour after a win. I will not mentally break down about deployment an hour after a win. I will not mentally break down about deployment an hour after a win. I will not mentally break down about deployment an hour after a win. I will not mentally break down about deployment an hour after a win. I will not mentally break down about deployment an hour after a win. I will not mentally break down about deployment an hour after a win. I will not mentally break down about deployment an hour after a win. I will not mentally break down about deployment an hour after a win. I will not mentally break down about deployment an hour after a win.

“I sense you’re concerned with deployment” – Deanna Troi, Blog Counselor.

Woodguy v2.0

Professor Q: I grew up actually loving the taste of Thrill gum.

Me too.

Soapy goodness.

Used to jam half a box in my mouth at once.

Shit was too hard to chew in about 15 minutes, but it was a glorious 15 minutes until then

Woodguy v2.0

Kaptain Vikarious:
Woodguy v2.0,

You did very well on each program.Entertaining and informative.Seemingly at ease.

Any idea when you’ll be back?Miss it.

Thank you.

Might be on a round table with LT when he has one.

Other than that I don’t plan on being on the radio at all.

To prep properly takes time I don’t really have these day, very busy with work.

And honestly the vitrol towards me on twitter (and other places, not here) was starting to bug me.

When you gain a little bit of profile it makes you a target.

I’ve decided to block everyone who is a dink and that has helped.

OriginalPouzar

Professor Q: I honestly can’t find anything. Difficult to find AHL injury news of the present, let alone the past! All I know from my sleuthing is that he was injured in January and didn’t make it back until the end of February. It was around the same time as Mantha’s injury so the focus was on that.

He was also suspended, and that maybe a few times.

I finally found it, from Twitter. It was a groin injury, which lasted quite a long time (almost 2 months).

https://mobile.twitter.com/BrendenUllrich/status/968959075479244801

Though, who knows. Maybe there was a concussion at some time.

Good work – that alleviates a bit of the concern – maybe it was Bear’s injury last year that was the concussion…..

Professor Q

OriginalPouzar:
I can’t recall for sure but was Jones’ injury last year a concussion? I seems to recall it was and he was out for a while. I could be misremembering but, if not, that is slightly concerning.

I honestly can’t find anything. Difficult to find AHL injury news of the present, let alone the past! All I know from my sleuthing is that he was injured in January and didn’t make it back until the end of February. It was around the same time as Mantha’s injury so the focus was on that.

He was also suspended, and that maybe a few times.

I finally found it, from Twitter. It was a groin injury, which lasted quite a long time (almost 2 months).

https://mobile.twitter.com/BrendenUllrich/status/968959075479244801

Though, who knows. Maybe there was a concussion at some time.

OriginalPouzar

I can’t recall for sure but was Jones’ injury last year a concussion? I seems to recall it was and he was out for a while. I could be misremembering but, if not, that is slightly concerning.

OriginalPouzar

rickithebear:
Russel playing with top HD dmen generates top 5 Expected save% results
With sub 1.50 expected GA rates.
He creates a high rate of closed corsi influenced by
1. Blocks
2. Forced misses
3. Poor targeting above average hit goalie rates.
These are all influences of Dmen.

The other is homeplate penetration which is greatly reduced with a strong HD pairing.
HD penetration is a thing.

Blocks, misses, shots with 0 chance of going in are things.
It sure is not simple to collect that data.

Buttons prospect ratings ?????
If you can get rookie of the year being 25 on sept 14 of start of season.
I have allways used 25 on July 1 (NzhL new contract date) to define a prospect.

Joel Persson is 24 this year.
A SHL dman of year.

Crazy!

Is Joel Persson considered an HD d-man?

OriginalPouzar

oilersfan:
The oilers are now 4-2 since Russell is back in the lineup

2-7-1 with Hitch and no Russell

I don’t think that is a coincidence.

13-4 with Hitch as coach and Russell in the lineup.

Not saying he is a top pairing D but he is a proven NHL dman in a top four role.

Any word on Caleb?

Yes, Russell coming back was a big deal, we saw that in the first game. In addition to just getting Russell back in the lineup himself, it knocks everyone else down a spot and makes it so we don’t have a guy like Gravel in the top 4 along with both Manning/Petrovic in the lineup.

I really hope the rest of the D stays healthy until Klef comes back as I’d love to see the unit with Jones knocked back to the third pairing. Russell isn’t the perfect 2D but I do like:

Klef/Larsson
Nurse/Russell
Jones/Benning / Gravel/Jones

OriginalPouzar

digger50:
Happy to focus on the win.

That late hit on Jones I thought was dirty and Oil would have answered if the game wasn’t on the line. Hope he’s okay

He didn’t come back to play, did he? Concussion protocol perhaps.

Suntory Hanzo

OriginalPouzar,

Morning OP! I mean, about to go to bed for me OP!

OriginalPouzar

npanciroli:
russ99,

Might be 0/2 on this after the weekend unfortunately.

Might be 2/0 this weekend as well….

OriginalPouzar

Gerta Rauss:
I think OP’s alarm is going to go off before this shootout is over

morning came quick today….

Suntory Hanzo

rickithebear,

I love these posts!!!

OriginalPouzar

Oilers tied with MIN for the 2nd wild card – MIN has a game in hand so hold it down.

Oilers one point behind COL for the 1st wild card, even games.

Oilers have a point on VAN with a game in hand, two points on ANA and 4 points on ARI and STL (STL with two games in hand).

Big game against the flames coming up on Sat – flames play the night before as well – Oilers need to find a way to get two points that night.

Wilde

oilersfan:

Wild I agree, but it shows with mediocre nhl Dmen the oilers are an a ok team

Not awesome, ok. But with a bunch of ahl Dmen we are the worst team in the league

Manning was on for the last shift of regulation because nurse had played over a minute with Russell and Jones was out

Any word on jones? I wonder if he has a concussion . That was a dirty hit by
gudbranson

Yeah that’s true. It’s kind of amazing how little help this core needs to power a 90-point team, and how hard it’s been for the organisation to complete such a provably minute task. It’s one of the reasons I’m very optimistic about the future of the team, how much dead weight the young players have dragged along and the thought of what they will be when the chains come off.

I don’t know if Caleb got a concussion, I watched it a few times and I don’t think Gudbranson hit him in the head, and didn’t see his head hit the boards or the ice after. Extremely reckless hit though, could have been miles worse esp. if Gudbranson was a better skater and got more speed behind it.

oilersfan:

Just watched the 3 minute post game interviews and none of those bone headed reporters even asked about Jones’ health after him leaving the bench short a dman in the third and him not playing in overtime…

Do these reporters even watch the game let alone understand it?

Reporters, like everyone else, routine-ise their work. Like everyone else’s work, the risk is run that it’s hurt by that process. One did ask Caleb himself about it, though:

______________________________________________________

Jim Matheson

@NHLbyMatty

2 hours ago

Caleb Jones was rattled by Erik Gubranson into end boards and needed concussion protocol. “Good hit. Yeah good hit.” One D man to another
______________________________________________________

The spotters obviously had a better angle than I do. I really, really want Jones’ minutes to be cut in the first place and this adds to it. He’s such an important future and with his innate abilities like his skating and confidence under distress at 21 in the NHL make it so he’s an outsize chance (for someone drafted in his slot) to become a Legit NHL Top-4 D but the precise only way to fuck this up happens to be the precise thing that’s happening, regardless of if it’s by necessity.

rickithebear:

Russel playing with top HD dmen generates top 5 Expected save% results
With sub 1.50 expected GA rates.
He creates a high rate of closed corsi influenced by
1. Blocks
2. Forced misses
3. Poor targeting above average hit goalie rates.
These are all influences of Dmen.
The other is homeplate penetration which is greatly reduced with a strong HD pairing.
HD penetration is a thing.
Blocks, misses, shots with 0 chance of going in are things.
It sure is not simple to collect that data.

Ricki, I think Russell’s main positive attribute is disrupting and eliminating the options of dangerous/backdoor passes. Is that included in #3?

rickithebear

Russel playing with top HD dmen generates top 5 Expected save% results
With sub 1.50 expected GA rates.
He creates a high rate of closed corsi influenced by
1. Blocks
2. Forced misses
3. Poor targeting above average hit goalie rates.
These are all influences of Dmen.

The other is homeplate penetration which is greatly reduced with a strong HD pairing.
HD penetration is a thing.

Blocks, misses, shots with 0 chance of going in are things.
It sure is not simple to collect that data.

Buttons prospect ratings ?????
If you can get rookie of the year being 25 on sept 14 of start of season.
I have allways used 25 on July 1 (NzhL new contract date) to define a prospect.

Joel Persson is 24 this year.
A SHL dman of year.

Crazy!

rickithebear

Edmonton Oilers results
W – L -OTL

Goals against games
0 GA need 1GF to win
4-0-0
1 ga need 2Gzf to win
7-0-0
2ga need 3 GF to win
7-0-1
3ga need 4 gf to win
3-2-0
4 gA need 5 gf to win
2-12-0
5ga gm need 6+ gf to win
0-8-2

oilersfan

Just watched the 3 minute post game interviews and none of those bone headed reporters even asked about Jones’ health after him leaving the bench short a dman in the third and him not playing in overtime…

Do these reporters even watch the game let alone understand it?

oilersfan

Wild I agree, but it shows with mediocre nhl Dmen the oilers are an a ok team

Not awesome, ok. But with a bunch of ahl Dmen we are the worst team in the league

Manning was on for the last shift of regulation because nurse had played over a minute with Russell and Jones was out

Any word on jones? I wonder if he has a concussion . That was a dirty hit by gudbranson

Wilde

oilersfan:

The oilers are now 4-2 since Russell is back in the lineup

2-7-1 with Hitch and no Russell

I don’t think that is a coincidence.

13-4 with Hitch as coach and Russell in the lineup.

Not saying he is a top pairing D but he is a proven NHL dman in a top four role.

Any word on Caleb?

I rate Russell higher than most who share similar evaluative methods to myself, but I feel like this is oversimplifying.

The main issue was with what Russell was replaced with. Just because the Oilers had to roll out some absolutely putrid groups of defencemen without him doesn’t mean he’s a better player, just that his replacements are so bad that they drive the gap between the team with Russell and without Russell further than it would be if Russell was replaced by a reasonably competent #5 D.

Wilde

I will not mentally break down about deployment an hour after a win. I will not mentally break down about deployment an hour after a win. I will not mentally break down about deployment an hour after a win. I will not mentally break down about deployment an hour after a win. I will not mentally break down about deployment an hour after a win. I will not mentally break down about deployment an hour after a win. I will not mentally break down about deployment an hour after a win. I will not mentally break down about deployment an hour after a win. I will not mentally break down about deployment an hour after a win. I will not mentally break down about deployment an hour after a win. I will not mentally break down about deployment an hour after a win. I will not mentally break down about deployment an hour after a win. I will not mentally break down about deployment an hour after a win.

oilersfan

The oilers are now 4-2 since Russell is back in the lineup

2-7-1 with Hitch and no Russell

I don’t think that is a coincidence.

13-4 with Hitch as coach and Russell in the lineup.

Not saying he is a top pairing D but he is a proven NHL dman in a top four role.

Any word on Caleb?

SwedishPoster

Ivan: YES! I said the exact same thing. We can hope!

He also looks like he murders people in his spare time.

SwedishPoster

2 points!
That was one of the most casual games I’ve seen in a long time, from both teams. Everything from the Khaira goal, the reffing, the let’s not bother power plays, the backchecking, the general lack of sharpness in the offensive zone, Drai’s ot breakaway, even Hitch’s coaching just seemed to be done without any kind of focus. To be fair this seems to be a theme around the league currently. Lot of teams waiting for the all star break. Good opportunity to harvest some cheap points with a little extra effort. These two points was not a good template for that extra effort though, just one team mailing it in a little bit better than the other during the shootout.
The OT was exciting though. Nice play by Nurse, good time in the game to finally befriend the puck.

Ivan

Halfwise:
Cave looks like Dave Hunter out there.

YES! I said the exact same thing. We can hope!

digger50

Happy to focus on the win.

That late hit on Jones I thought was dirty and Oil would have answered if the game wasn’t on the line. Hope he’s okay

npanciroli

russ99,

Might be 0/2 on this after the weekend unfortunately.

russ99

Beat Calgary and don’t make a dumb trade and I’ll feel a lot better about this team.

Gerta Rauss

It wasn’t pretty but it’s 2 points in the bank

Bring on the Flames

OriginalPouzar

Atta boy Chiasson.

Ryan

russ99:
Wooooooooo!

I knew Chaser had this!

That was exciting.

russ99

Wooooooooo!

russ99

I hate these long shootouts. Come on Oil!

Gerta Rauss

hehe….Chiasson in round 5 wins it

big 2 points

suck it Vancouver

Ryan

Cmon chaser

little.fiery.one

little.fiery.one:
Our lack of depth in skill may haunt us here.

As if it hasn’t been haunting us all damn year.

little.fiery.one

Our lack of depth in skill may haunt us here.

Gerta Rauss

I think OP’s alarm is going to go off before this shootout is over

little.fiery.one

Pretendergast:
i think Edler took 4 separate interference calls in that overtime

Just grab McDavid by the waist and ride him around the rink. Wheeeeeee….

Gerta Rauss

filthy save on Nuge in the shootout ffs

docweb

Man, a healthy Sekera instead of Nurse in OT would be sweet

digger50

Nice to see Khaira work his way up into overtime shifts. Never seen that coming three years ago.

Pretendergast

i think Edler took 4 separate interference calls in that overtime

Gerta Rauss

fun OT-everything but the kitchen sink

little.fiery.one

OriginalPouzar:
Oh, Russell, you’ve got to bury that…

Russel, all is forgiven