Sky Pilot

by Lowetide

The NHL Edmonton Oilers have charged six men with the job of general manager, Keith Gretzky is No. 7. The leader in all important categories is Glen Sather (1980-2000), with Kevin Lowe the only other GM to take the club to the Stanley Cup finals. Larry Gordon (1978-1980) and Peter Chiarelli got the club to a playoff spring (one each), while Steve Tambellini and Craig MacTavish are on the outside looking in. The current Oilers should be due for a decade plus run from the next guy. Is it Keith Gretzky?

CHIARELLI-GRETZKY FREE AGENTS

  • 2017: Ty Rattie, Jussi Jokinen, Yohann Auvitu
  • 2018: Tobias Rieder, Kyle Brodziak, Kevin Gravel, Mikko Koskinen, Jakub Jerabek, Alex Chiasson.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton brought it yesterday, there’s a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group. Outstanding offer is here.

  • New Tyler Dellow: Four questions that the Oilers should be asking candidates for the GM job
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: New Oilers caretaker Keith Gretzky caught between earning playoff berth and keeping future assets
  • New Lowetide: Bob Nicholson’s press conference attempts to set the tone for Oilers moving forward.
  • New Craig Custance: How desirable is the Oilers GM opening and what questions are prospective candidates asking?
  • New Jonathan Willis: With Peter Chiarelli gone, this is what the Oilers need to do next
  • New Pierre Lebrun: Possible candidates to replace Peter Chiarelli as Oilers GM
  • New Lowetide: Peter Chiarelli’s inability adjust, poor trades and free-agent misses at the centre of his firing.
  • New Jonathan Willis: Rushed Mikko Koskinen deal was one Peter Chiarelli should not have been allowed to make.
  • New Tyler Dellow: What can the NHL’s last three turtle derbies tell us about the playoff race in the West?
  • Lowetide: Oilers sign Mikko Koskinen long term, signalling the end of the line for Cam Talbot in Edmonton.
  • Lowetide: The Oilers’ way forward and the smartest route to finding an impact winger this summer.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Goalless Tobias Rieder hopes to follow Zack Kassian and Milan Lucic and end his offensive funk.
  • Lowetide: Complete Oilers top 20 prospects, Winter 2018

KEITH GRETZKY

The Edmonton Oilers hired Keith Gretzky on August 2, 2016. In the year+ Peter Chiarelli worked for the Oilers without Gretzky, his major moves were trading for Cam Talbot, Griffin Reinhart, Adam Larsson, plus signing Andrej Sekera and Milan Lucic. By the time Gretzky arrived (the 2017 and 2018 drafts had his imprint) things had calmed down in free agency and most of the big trades were done. It’s impossible to know how much influence he exerted but the club did hold on to most of its draft picks.

2017 OILERS DRAFT

  • The first Gretzky-Green draft brought undersized skill winger Kailer Yamamoto (now 20) to the team. He’s played in 26 NHL games (1-4-5) and was sent back to Bakersfield on Wednesday. He’s 11, 4-4-8 in the AHL and that’s a good spot for him until he dominates. Of course, chances are he gets recalled after the AS break.
  • Stuart Skinner is also in the AHL, he has played mostly in the ECHL this year.
  • Dmitri Samorukov, Kirill Maksimov and Philip Kemp are tracking well, and Safin would likely be doing the same if he were healthy.
  • It’s a good list, no reaches early.

2018 OILERS DRAFT

  • This draft badly needs to cash at least two players in my opinion. Edmonton drafted top 10, then top 40 and then a third time just outside the top 60.
  • Evan Bouchard began the season in the NHL (7, 1-0-1) and is back dominating the OHL (20, 7-19-26) as he did one year ago. Bouchard may benefit from the Oilers new plan (stated by Bob Nicholson yesterday and in place with the Condors this season) to bring these kids along more slowly.
  • Ryan McLeod’s offense has increased slightly, but I think we’re looking at a third-line center if he progresses to NHL level.
  • Olivier Rodrigue ranks No. 11 in QMJHL save percentage (.902) and looks like a solid prospect.

COMPLETE NHLE (FORWARDS)

  1. Cooper Marody 42.5
  2. Kirill Maksimov 38.8
  3. Joe Gambardella 35.0
  4. Tyler Benson 33.9
  5. Ryan McLeod 30.6
  6. Kailer Yamamoto 29.0
  7. Patrick Russell 28.3
  8. Josh Currie 27.9
  9. Brad Malone 24.5
  10. Cam Hebig 21.9
  11. Ostap Safin 21.0
  12. Mitch Callahan 14.5
  13. Tyler Vesel 12.5
  14. Skyler Brind’Amour 8.8
  15. Graham McPhee 7.7
  16. Aapeli Rasanen 6.8
  17. Nolan Vesey 6.6
  18. Colin Larkin 6.3
  19. Joey Dudek 4.6
  • This is the entire group save Patrik Siikanen (I don’t have an NHLE for him but the young man is playing well).
  • My personal opinion is Yamamoto, Benson and Marody are the best bets for future NHL work. Benson and McLeod may have more ways to make it (skill line and as checkers) but that’s a guess.
  • Maksimov is promising but we’ll have to see how things shake out once he turns pro.
  • Joe Gambardella is a fascinating prospect but he’s an older player. His pro career may be spent in the Alps.
https://twitter.com/Bert_cX/status/1085920997419765765

COMPLETE NHLE (DEFENSE)

  1. Evan Bouchard 34.4
  2. Joel Persson 30.2
  3. Caleb Jones 23.5
  4. Ethan Bear 21.6
  5. Dmitri Samorukov 15.7
  6. Filip Berglund 12.9
  7. Ryan Stanton 12.6
  8. Keegan Lowe 12.3
  9. William Lagesson 11.2
  10. Vincent Desharnais 9.4
  11. Mike Kesselring 8.7
  12. Phil Kemp 7.7
  13. Robin Norel 7.4
  14. John Marino 4.7
  15. Matthew Cairns 4.6
  16. Markus Niemelainen 3.4
  • I think the top four names here are the ones to focus on (divide by two and then two again) and have to say Caleb Jones recent NHL performance was an eye opener.
  • I can’t wait for the Bouchard-Persson contest in training camp this fall, wonder if Ethan Bear can get into that race. He’s having a helluva run currently. The new slow-play plan might benefit Bear.

KEITH GRETZKY

Keith Gretzky joined the Boston Bruins as a scout during the 2011-12 season, and moved up to scouting director after the 2013 draft. The Bruins 2014 entry draft (David Pastrnak, Ryan Donato, Danton Heinen, Anders Bjork, Emil Johansson) is one we’ll probably be talking about for years. In 2015 the club made some big trades (Milan Lucic, Dougie Hamilton) and drafted three times in the first round and three more times in Round Two. Gretzky’s Bruins passed on Mathew Barzal, Kyle Connor, Brock Boeser and others, and that’s a major miss.

Early hits like Jake DeBrusk and Brandon Carlo suggest Gretzky and his crew did in fact get some value from the picks. We’ll see about Jakub Zboril, Zach Senyshyn, Jakob Forsbacka-Karlsson and others down the line.

The 2016 draft saw Boston pick Charlie McAvoy over Dante Fabbro and at the time it seemed like a big deal. It was, but the Bruins appear to have done well. The rest of that draft is still matriculating but there are some good signs from Trent Frederic, who was a controversial selection at the time.

Lots of talent here already in the NHL (Pastrnak, McAvoy, Heinen, Donato, DeBrusk, Carlo) and plenty more on the way.

READ THIS

Read this.

BAKERSFIELD IN JANUARY

I don’t know why, but it seems prospects who spend the season in the AHL either spike or dive in January. I had a scout tell me the difference has to do with usage (a coach begins to trust more) and the game slowing down for the player. It’s always been a curio for me and this year is fascinating. Here are the Condors main prospects and their performances since January 1.

  1. Joe Gambardella 5, 5-3-8 (1.60)
  2. Tyler Benson 11, 1-12-13 (1.18)
  3. Cooper Marody 11, 3-10-13 (1.18)
  4. Ethan Bear 11, 2-8-10 (0.91)
  5. Logan Day 11, 1-8-9 (0.82)
  6. Patrick Russell 9, 3-3-6 (0.67)
  7. Tyler Vesel 9, 1-1-2 (0.22)
  8. William Lagesson 11, 0-2-2 (0.18)
  9. Cameron Hebig 11, 0-1-1 (0.09)
  • Some solid numbers there, your recall at the trade deadline probably populate the top four names on this list. Maybe Russell and Lagesson will get recalls as well. Jones (1, 1-0-1 in January) is a lock for recall if the team sells at the deadline.
  • Tyler Benson is supposed to spend the season in the AHL, but if you look at the LW depth chart it’ll be tough to keep him down on the farm if he continues to post offense. I’m looking forward to seeing him at the big league level, suspect that day will arrive sooner than later.

We’ll get a good idea about what Bob Nicholson is thinking once we see reporting on names actually getting interviews. I have no personal favourite but would like to see curious minds and individuals who embrace analytics as a tool across multiple areas (on ice: exit and entries; off ice: Draft and procurement).

ASSETS OUT

Nicholson’s avail made it sound like no young players are leaving but we can use the brains God gave us and make an educated guess. Edmonton has just one area (really) with enough depth to trade and that’s on defense. Matt Benning, Ethan Bear, any number of the 5-6-7D on the NHL roster, and perhaps a ‘futures’ player like Phil Kemp would have value. The draft picks are also in play (not the first-round pick, apparently, but never say never) and I do think a lot of teams might ask after Jujhar Khaira.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy morning after a crazy day, we’re bringing fabulous guests. At 10, TSN1260:

  • Frank Seravalli, TSN. Frank was on fire yesterday bringing the righteous truth on Peter Chiarelli, we’ll catch some of the heat this morning.
  • Jon Campbell, OddsShark.com. Super Bowl odds, Hart trophy winner and more.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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smellyglove

Have you seen this article by Travis Yost? Scathing, absolutely scathing. And written after Chia was fired.

https://www.tsn.ca/koskinen-contract-the-latest-perplexing-decision-in-edmonton-1.1246179

OriginalPouzar

I wonder if we see this for Friday’s game:

Benson/Marody/Currie
Russell/Malone/Joe G.
Spooner/Hebig/Yamamoto
Vesel/Polei/Callahan

Gust and Polei can switch for game 2 on Sat and same with Callahan and Esposito?

I really like those lines and I’m not worried about Yamamoto on the “third line” – Jay W. generally rolls his lines at evens and that top/kid line is hot as hell right now and the “experience line” has nice chemistry. Those are two offensive minded players for Kailer.

OriginalPouzar

Yes, I agree that Ryan McLeod looks like he may develop in to a 3rd line center and if he develop in to a truly effective 3rd line center with plus PK and the ability to move up the lineup, that is great value for a 2nd round pick.

With his size and speed, I think he has that type of ability if he develops as hoped.

I would think he signs a contract in the coming months.

He should NOT be an NHL option for October next year – yes, he had a nice training camp last year but, as we know, training camp and exhibition games essentially mean nothing with respect to NHL readiness.

I’m sure he will have a great camp next year and produce in the exhibition games – that will not mean he’s NHL ready.

Really is too bad that we weren’t able to get him under contract during the 2018 calendar year so his ELC would be subject to slide next year.

As Godot says, his agent read the CBA.

At the end of the day, not having his contract slide next year could be a good thing – making his second contract cheaper (but earlier).

Nice prospect, decent arrows – calm your tits on his timeline.

OriginalPouzar

Olivier Rodrigue was named CHL goalie of the week a few days ago with 2 solid performances (1.00 GAA and his Save Percentage was around .960).

Look forward to him at the World Juniors next year.

OriginalPouzar

Bear has settled in after a rocky start (late assignment to Bakersfield, injury issues).

His goal last night was a snipe.

I worry about his skating and ability to retrieve the puck but we’ll see.

———————————-

Very curious to see what type of contract Joel Persson will sign for next season – ELC restrictions are gone. I assume he will demand a one-way – none of us should care about that. I anticipate it may be close to $2M based off of the performance bonus structure of his existing ELC (he negotiated performance bonuses even though it was agreed he would play in Sweden – why?).

Will Persson head to the AHL if he isn’t on the NHL team?

Will Berglund come over for camp? From accounts, NHL is his goal but, as LT has stated in the past, it is going to be crowded in Bakersfield next season.

OriginalPouzar

I’m also excited for Samorukov to join the pro ranks. He played well in his short sting in the Bake last season and he’s having a very nice draft plus 2 season – very strong defender with puck moving and offensive upside which we are seeing now that Merkley was traded away by Guelph.

flyfish1168

OriginalPouzar:
I wonder if we see this for Friday’s game:

Benson/Marody/Currie
Russell/Malone/Joe G.
Spooner/Hebig/Yamamoto
Vesel/Polei/Callahan

Gust and Polei can switch for game 2 on Sat and same with Callahan and Esposito?

I really like those lines and I’m not worried about Yamamoto on the “third line” – Jay W. generally rolls his lines at evens and that top/kid line is hot as hell right now and the “experience line” has nice chemistry. Those are two offensive minded players for Kailer.

Sure wish JP is down here to play some real games. Maybe he will be seen at a community rink again with the kids having fun

jtblack

FUTURE RHD

LARSSSON
PERSSON
BOUCHARD
PETROVIC

FUTURE LHD

KLEFBOM
NURSE
JONES
XXXXX

Seems like quality mix of skills with good age and potential to be Cup Worthy.

northof51

Made the mistake of reading the PHWA midseason award winners… Akin to being stabbed with a spoon, McDavid will yet again be passed up for the Hart. Here’s hoping his colleagues will have the sense to award him a third consecutive Lindsay.

Darth Tu

OriginalPouzar:
I wonder if we see this for Friday’s game:

Benson/Marody/Currie
Russell/Malone/Joe G.
Spooner/Hebig/Yamamoto
Vesel/Polei/Callahan

Gust and Polei can switch for game 2 on Sat and same with Callahan and Esposito?

I really like those lines and I’m not worried about Yamamoto on the “third line” – Jay W. generally rolls his lines at evens and that top/kid line is hot as hell right now and the “experience line” has nice chemistry. Those are two offensive minded players for Kailer.

I finally took the plunge and watched a Condors game last night. I know exactly what you mean about Bear’s skating, but I think his work rate might make up for that, I still think he’s a material prospect. Depending how the Oilers season is going (i.e. if we’re out of the playoff race before the end of the season), I’d love to see him get another look in the NHL to see if he’s came on from last year.

Condors up to 16th in the league overall and 11th on win percentage – that’s not too shabby!

If Spooner can get going down in the AHL I’m more than happy for him to be given another chance with the Oilers. A lot can be said for moving team and getting yourself going, look at Strome, it took him about half a season to really start rounding into form. Spooner can’t have completely forgotten how to play in the last 2 years, surely this is just a matter of getting him some confidence back?

frjohnk

Im not sure how the Oilers will dump alot of the players that take up a bigger cap hit than what their actual value is AND then fill in the roster spots of 4,5,6,7 in the forward ranks correctly.

Oilers will need to use some assets ( picks, maybe some of the b level prospects, salary retainment) to get rid of the dead weight.

Also I wonder if the David Perron part 1 trade is a template the Oilers could follow this summer in regards to using JP and a 2nd rounder for a player that is established but plays on a team that is in a salary crunch.

Professor Q

Any worry about Puljujärvi not also getting time in Bakersfield with the others? A case of too many spots and him maybe needing rest?

Just think it’d be nice for him to have top line minutes during the break.

Oddspell

Darth Tu: If Spooner can get going down in the AHL I’m more than happy for him to be given another chance with the Oilers.

If Spooner can get himself going, and become a 13 goal-ish player in the NHL again, then that’s already makes the next GMs job easier.

PennersPancakes

Could Bakersfield have a legitimate prospect based D next year? Obviously having veterans has its benefits and things can change but this d core, all players has a shot at legitimate NHL futures:

Jones – Bear
Lagesson – Bouchard
Samorukov – Persson

This of course is barring any trades/injuries/call ups. When was the last time the Oilers had the AHL stocked up like this?

itsaleaf

jtblack,

Doubt petrovic is retained. He’s been poor and frankly he’s too damn slow for today’s NHL.

Coiler

Anyone who follows Elliott Friedman’s podcast ’31 Thoughts’ should take a gander at his latest one where he dissects the fallout of the Oiler’s mess. It’s an interesting listen and one point, when asked about who the new GM should be, mentioned that he didn’t necessarily say they should hire him BUT mentioned that the new GM/club needed to embrace analytics and that they should consider bringing back a blast from the past; Tyler Dellow.
I can’t help but think that it might be a sound decision to make. Not as a GM but I think as an assistant GM or Director of Player Personnel.

Nicholson is like the Mouth of Sauron. A soundbite, a politician, a cardboard cutout. A lot of style, no substance. I don’t believe a word he said in that news conference. I heard him again on the FAN590 in Toronto and he spoke in circles. Ugh.

frjohnk

itsaleaf:
jtblack,

Doubt petrovic is retained.He’s been poor and frankly he’s too damn slow for today’s NHL.

He and Manning have gotten beat by speed quite a few times.

PennersPancakes

Coiler: Nicholson is like the Mouth of Sauron.

Firing Chia was winning at Minas Tirith. The Oilers need to destroy the ring (OBC) to end it all.

Durag

PennersPancakes: Firing Chia was winning at Minas Tirith. The Oilers need to destroy the ring (OBC) to end it all.

I’m all for the optimism, but c’mon, firing Chia was victory at Orthanc at best.

Andy Dufresne

Random thought of the day. (I know its stating the obvious)

Adam Larsson just turned 26 two months ago. He’s not yet reached his prime.

In a future lineup that includes the likes of Klefbom (25), Nurse (24 in 3 weeks), Persson (24) Jones (21) Bouchard (19)…….Larsson will be our teams veteran presence / anchor on defense at age 28 (perfect timing).

We really need to create a winning atmosphere / competitive team over the next 2 seasons in order to keep this guy in Edmonton. Because once his current contract expires, he is UFA.

Darth Tu

Durag: I’m all for the optimism, but c’mon, firing Chia was victory at Orthanc at best.

If we somehow have an army of Ents at our disposal, winning the Cup will not be a problem.

Brantford Boy

Sounds like Dale Hawerchuk isn’t interested in the position from the Twitter link LT provided above…
Hawerchuk @behindthenet
23h
“I am perfectly happy in Barrie. I value my time on the golf course too much to take such a stressful job.”

Come on down #19… Katz has the dough to get this done… and I agree with the Fridge… bring back Dellow…

Coiler

And another thing…

Does anyone find it odd in the timing of the firing occurred directly after the Koskinen signing? Not to bring up any conspiracies but if Chia saw the writing on the wall then he might have completed this as a final little F-U to the organization.

The organization was caught with egg on their face and backpeddled to say that they were all on board with it when anyone in their right mind would never have signed a guy with 30 games in the NHL to that sort of contract.

Smells fishy.

Durag

Darth Tu: If we somehow have an army of Ents at our disposal, winning the Cup will not be a problem.

Maybe we can at least swing a deal with Arizona for MacKenzie Entwistle.

YKOil

smellyglove:
Have you seen this article by Travis Yost? Scathing, absolutely scathing. And written after Chia was fired.

https://www.tsn.ca/koskinen-contract-the-latest-perplexing-decision-in-edmonton-1.1246179

It really was shocking how easily Chia accepted risk in his transactions and how poorly Chia future proofed his contracts. Consider:

YR1 .. 5.2 pay .. 4.5 cap .. 15 NTC
YR2 .. 3.8 pay .. 4.5 cap .. 0.5 signing .. 15 NTC
YR3 .. 4.5 pay .. 4.5 cap .. 15 NTC

versus

YR1 .. 6.0 pay .. 4.5 cap .. 3.0 signing .. 22 NTC and NMC before Jan 15
YR2 .. 4.5 pay .. 4.5 cap .. 1.5 signing .. 15 NTC
YR3 .. 3.0 pay .. 4.5 cap .. 8 NTC

identical AAV but the second contract gives:

– the player far more security in pay (more is front loaded) and extra security in year one
– the team a much smaller risk profile on the contract via greater flexibility in terms of both the NTC and the attractiveness of the contract to prospective trade partners

The inability of the team to properly calibrate and balance its risk profiles – especially in risky signings like this one – is mind-boggling to me. So much incompetence.

godot10

smellyglove:
Have you seen this article by Travis Yost? Scathing, absolutely scathing. And written after Chia was fired.

https://www.tsn.ca/koskinen-contract-the-latest-perplexing-decision-in-edmonton-1.1246179

This is a pretty thin analysis. Koskinen has a record outside the NHL too. And Yost totally ignores that data. A competent data scientist would not ignore it and try to make something of it.

jake70

Coiler:

Nicholson is like the Mouth of Sauron. A soundbite, a politician, a cardboard cutout. A lot of style, no substance. I don’t believe a word he said in that news conference. I heard him again on the FAN590 in Toronto and he spoke in circles. Ugh.

I didn’t really have an opinion before yesterday on Nicholson. But I agree with you. He didn’t have a clue what he was saying (which was be design my guess on his part). Character, compete, character, compete….need to get back to playing like when Hitch first started…blah blah blah. Is Chiarelli in the room? Doing the practices? No, so why fire him then if it’s all on the players and/or coach? Total deflection in my opinion on non-Chiarelll hockey ops decision makers (of which HE is one) who assembled this team. It’s not the water Bob…jesus H.

Kinger_Oil.redux

– Pondering what is the best interest long-term for the team in terms of results for rest of year?

– Ideally, Sek and Klef come back and the team plays a lot better, Koski shows he’s legit starting G over a long period, we get into the playoffs, show well.

– As a fan, this is what we should all want. But what does a playoff berth and good results mean?

– I don’t want Hitch back as coach next year. I don’t want the org thinking all they need is a new shiny GM who is way better than Chia and we can fix this bad-boy up in a jiffy

– I fear that a playoff run might actually not be the best for the org, as it might make them think that its all good: is that crazy talk on my part?

– Also Nicholson: after he did an exhaustive audit, he brought in Chia and Coach. Katz gives him the benefit of doubt that he will have learned from the past process. He’s got all the same people on board to provide “advice” as before: how is this process going to be different?

elgruntus

The Twitter thread by Hawerchuk was insightful.

Katz, in any world outside of Gotham, would be considered a super villain, yet here in Mallville, some still see him as a savior. He bought the team with a boatload of promises that seemed to evaporate quicker than Woodguy’s Scotch. He leveraged this city’s love for their team into a nice downtown empire and kept the prize asset as his personal pet.

Let’s face it. Katz is just a glorified Lowetidian with huge bank. Whereas we offer up our ingenious ideas on how to run this team, he actually gets to put them into practice and hang with our heroes (and then turn them into pariahs) .

MacT and Lowe had gone to great lengths to include a CHL, undrafted defenceman on the World Championship roster, knowing that they held the top spot in the draft. It was an obvious audition. It was widely speculated that it was Katz, on the draft day floor, that turned Ryan Murray into Nail Yakupov. Nice slap to the scouting staff.

Lowe, under the Gang of Ownershio Group, was a capable GM. MacT is well respected through the league. They didnt just lose their minds when Batman bought the team. The rot is at the top, with no way to cut the head off the snake.

This is us.

*** wasn’t there a competing offer to buy the Oilers when Katz purchased them? I wonder…what if?

jtblack

frjohnk: He and Manning have gotten beat by speed quite a few times.

Fair enough. Havent watched the last few games.

but with Bouchard and Persson it looks like edm can finally achieve Balance and have a quality top 6 D. maybe Bear or Benning would be the extra RHD

Tibor

YKOil,

Isn’t this why we have a Director of Salary Cap Management, to advise on such things?

jake70

Speakeing of….Nicholson HC@Noon now.

Chelios is a Dinosaur

Coiler,

I find it equally odd that people can look at this state of affairs and not be concerned McDavid walks away before this mess can be cleaned up. 8 years turns to 0 rather quickly when this is the working environment.

Dale Hawerchuck is so right that the long-term acceptance for losing exists from within the Oilers, from within its management and much of its fanbase. That will happen when you’ve been told to be patient for 30 years. Everyone starts to believe the lie. We are not only the North of the NHL, we are the North Korea of the NHL.

I know it is unpopular, but I really don’t think its a bad idea to turn the first round pick into something with term that can jump into the line up today. I’m not sure Gretzky has a mandate to do it, and I’m glad PC isn’t around to make the deal, but I still think its should be explored. It is not just about making the playoffs, but establishing a baseline of play that is acceptable. UFAs that are needed parts of the cluster 2 years out will be less likely to leave if they see a commitment to winning. The JPs and the JJs will grow if they have more skill to play with now, not in 3 years. Some minutes off 29 and 97 now means they aren’t at risk of injury and another lost half season somewhere soon.

This team doesn’t need another ace prospect. It needs about six 8s and 9s. The weight of another Yakupov or Bouchard starting this summer is precisely what this team DOESN’T need right now and the team couldn’t handle even if that were the case.

Leroy Draisdale

jtblack,

FUTURE RHD

LARSSSON
PERSSON
BOUCHARD
PETROVIC

FUTURE LHD

KLEFBOM
NURSE
JONES
XXXXX

Seems like quality mix of skills with good age and potential to be Cup Worthy.

From OP’s account Lagesson could possibly fill the XXXXX spot on the left.
Nice to see the farm with some decent bets!

jtblack

Leroy Draisdale:
jtblack,

FUTURE RHD

LARSSSON
PERSSON
BOUCHARD
PETROVIC

FUTURE LHD

KLEFBOM
NURSE
JONES
XXXXX

Seems like quality mix of skills with good age and potential to be Cup Worthy.

From OP’s account Lagesson could possibly fill the XXXXX spot on the left.
Nice to see the farm with some decent bets!

ues. ADD BEAR, BENNING LAGESSON

Decent crop

v4ance

frjohnk: He and Manning have gotten beat by speed quite a few times.

In a way, this also echoes Travis Yost’s article on the shitty talent evaluation. The league is moving more to fast transition defenceman who can pivot and get to dumped in pucks and them pass it up to forwards as fast as possible. The less time you spend in your own zone, the less defence you have to play.

In his last acts of desperation, Chia picked up two more slow rickibox D who can’t keep up to the speed of the league

godot10

YKOil: It really was shocking how easily Chia accepted risk in his transactions and how poorly Chia future proofed his contracts.Consider:

YR1 .. 5.2 pay .. 4.5 cap .. 15 NTC
YR2 .. 3.8 pay .. 4.5 cap .. 0.5 signing .. 15 NTC
YR3 .. 4.5 pay .. 4.5 cap .. 15 NTC

versus

YR1 .. 6.0 pay .. 4.5 cap .. 3.0 signing .. 22 NTC and NMC before Jan 15
YR2 .. 4.5 pay .. 4.5 cap .. 1.5 signing .. 15 NTC
YR3 .. 3.0 pay .. 4.5 cap .. 8 NTC

identical AAV but the second contract gives:

– the player far more security in pay (more is front loaded) and extra security in year one
– the team a much smaller risk profile on the contract via greater flexibility in terms of both the NTC and the attractiveness of the contract to prospective trade partners

The inability of the team to properly calibrate and balance its risk profiles – especially in risky signings like this one – is mind-boggling to me.So much incompetence.

Front-loaded contracts have cap recapture consequences if one is forced to buy them out. Contracts should be as flat as possible with minimal signing bonuses and minimal trade restrictions.

YKOil

Tibor,

Yeah… I get the impression our current guy isn’t really THAT though. Looks like he did well GM’ing the Barons but that isn’t the same as being a Cap and Risk Management guru.

Washingtron

It really was the Nicholson presser that deflated me. I’ve been hoping and praying for Chia’s firing since pretty much Reinhart, but that press conference so clearly indicated that the rot is deeper than GM. I will always maintain that in my 30 some odd years of Oilers fandom he is the worst GM i’ve Ever seen, but seriously? Nicholson emphasizing “character”, saying the team has good pieces (as if five good players and literally no prospects or salary cap for the foreseeable future wasn’t a problem) and can make the playoffs, not to mention failing to see that the OBC IS the “something in the water”, it was all so gutting.

godot10

Folks. Nicholson has to fill the vacuum with something. The words don’t mean anything.

Munny

Bob on HC@Noon…

“No timeline for hiring and there may be obstacles like contractual obligations. Majority of things we have to do is right in the dressing room. When Hitch started he had them rolling really well, we need to get back to that game plan. Have to make sure you get a GM who knows the League but also knows the player today.”

Shannon: Not enough blame has been put the players. This team lacks character. How do you tackle character in the room?

Nickel: You nailed it with the right word. We want to give the leaders in the room the tools they need to lead well. We’ve been meeting with people and we have to make sure we create a real positive atmosphere in the room and around the organization.”

Marek: Will there be a shift in how the Oilers play?

Nickel: We all know the game has gotten quicker so we need to be aware of bringing in skill and speed. Everyone is looking for those same pieces. Some pieces fit in differently with different organizations so the new GM will e looking at it

Shannon: What about Connor?

Nickel: We have to take a little pressure off Connor. Leadership has to be spread out a little bit in the locker room.

Summarized and paraphrased… SN will probably have the video of the telecon up some time today.

Kinger_Oil.redux

godot10:
Folks.Nicholson has to fill the vacuum with something.They don’t mean anything.

– Exactly: his job is to obfuscate, protect, promote, pass the buck

– What else besides: “we need to get better”, “it was Chias fault, and not the other people that are still here”, we are going to do a big search” “we need to be better”, do you expect him to say

– I do though think that when he has to veer off his script, it’s clear to me that through his rambling non-answers that the Org is pretty hallow, and he’s protecting a lot of people, and they are flying by the seat of pants, without a plan. It’s a difficult situation to be sure: Bob’s just the messenger

Andy Dufresne

Its a new day! Lets get busy.

New GM’s biggest job is getting rid of contracts over the next 18 months.

2020-21 Roster

RNH McDavid Yamamoto
Kharai Draisaitl JP
Benson Mcleod Maximov
Marody Hebig Safin

Klefbom Larsson
Nurse Bouchard
Jones Persson
Samarukov Bear
Lagesson

Make all our picks in 2019 (first round Sniper)
Summer 2019 Trade 2020 First rounder + for a veteran sniper with speed ( age 24 to 27).

Munny
powerploy

flyfish1168,

he should be able to get top line minutes with the kids.

just kidding, not a shot, I personaly think hes going to become a great player, just a slower bloomer then his draft comparisons

HugThePost

Kinger_Oil.redux: – Exactly: his job is to obfuscate, protect, promote, pass the buck

– What else besides: “we need to get better”, “it was Chias fault, and not the other people that are still here”, we are going to do a big search” “we need to be better”, do you expect him to say

– I do though think that when he has to veer off his script, it’s clear to me that through his rambling non-answers that the Org is pretty hallow, and he’s protecting a lot of people, and they are flying by the seat of pants, without a plan.It’s a difficult situation to be sure: Bob’s just the messenger

It’s maddening for anyone who views it objectively, but from their standpoint why change? The building has been sold out for over a decade and they didn’t even have to win. Katz has his downtown empire paid for and delivered by us.

Before Bobby Nicks, it was Patrick Laforge who played the role of frontman sales guy. After him there will be another slick guy.

The beat goes on as long as the sheep continue to flock to 104th

YKOil

godot10: Front-loaded contracts have cap recapture consequences if one is forced to buy them out. Contracts should be as flat as possible with minimal signing bonuses and minimal trade restrictions.

Contracts should be all sorts of things. The front-loaded nature of a contract is relatively immaterial for buy-out purposes – the Cap Advantage Recapture Penalty being the notable exception – signing bonuses do matter however (see also: Lucic contract) so, if used, they should be used early in a contract when the player is most able to fulfill their contract.

Signing bonuses is one of the crazy un-foreseen’s of the new CBA’s – when the CBA was negotiated I am sure most GM’s/Owners looked at signing bonuses as a semi-trivial issue. Then player agents started front-loading some contracts for money-now reasons, then they became a way to proof contracts for labour disruption and now they are seen as ways to protect a whole contract. Probably in the top-3 items teams want to negotiate in the next CBA.

YKOil

godot10:
Folks.Nicholson has to fill the vacuum with something.The words don’t mean anything.

On that we agree

OriginalPouzar

Also from Friedman’s 31 thoughts regarding potential trades:

– Oilers have asked about OW’s favorite, Burakovsky – On Lowetide this morning they said the ask is a pair of picks 2nd and 3rd rounders – I don’t see that in a quick look of the 31 thoughts.

– Oilers like Athansiou and his speed but it would cost alot

– Oilers are trying to move Rieder to open up some cap space

– Teams have asked about Bouchard and those conversations have gone nowhere.

New Improved Darkness

smellyglove:
Have you seen this article by Travis Yost? Scathing, absolutely scathing. And written after Chia was fired.

https://www.tsn.ca/koskinen-contract-the-latest-perplexing-decision-in-edmonton-1.1246179

Yost leans hard on analytics, but doesn’t even know that your confidence level goes up on the square root of your sample size (three times more confident, not nine times more confident). Basic, basic, basic statistics.

Plus it’s far from the only information you have to go on. In particular, Koskinen already has a long professional career on the books, so maybe he’s a rookie (in a technical sense), but he’s surely not a green rookie still finding his way in any useful sense.

Also, this analysis puts no value on knowing what you’re going to get from year to year: this models a coin with no memory. Talbot was not a coin with no memory. He definitely ran hot and cold, as his large sample size demonstrates extremely well. Good Talbot was a steal. Unpredictable Talbot was a coach and GM killer (not that he didn’t have oodles of help on all fronts).

After a nice beheading, hard standards of evidence go on happy hiatus.

There’s nothing quite like already knowing the answer—missing body language never lies—to promote a satisfied second drink rather than a skeptical second check.