Take 30

Today, we’re going to talk about ceilings. I’m going to use NHL equivalencies and talk about draft pedigree. We’re also going to talk about the best way to use the final 30 games of the current season.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton brought it yesterday, there’s a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group. Outstanding offer is here.

  • New Lowetide: Edmonton’s 2019 entry draft plans may change with new GM but needs are clear
  • Lowetide: Caleb Jones has impressive first showing in the NHL with Oilers.
  • DGB: Weighing the pros and cons of some top candidates for the Edmonton Oilers GM job.
  • Scott Burnside: Connor McDavid answered unwanted Oilers questions with poise and defiance, which is a good thing. (this is a terrific article).
  • Tyler Dellow: Four questions that the Oilers should be asking candidates for the GM job
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: New Oilers caretaker Keith Gretzky caught between earning playoff berth and keeping future assets
  • Lowetide: Bob Nicholson’s press conference attempts to set the tone for Oilers moving forward.
  • Craig Custance: How desirable is the Oilers GM opening and what questions are prospective candidates asking?
  • Jonathan Willis: With Peter Chiarelli gone, this is what the Oilers need to do next
  • Pierre Lebrun: Possible candidates to replace Peter Chiarelli as Oilers GM
  • Lowetide: Peter Chiarelli’s inability adjust, poor trades and free-agent misses at the centre of his firing.
  • Jonathan Willis: Rushed Mikko Koskinen deal was one Peter Chiarelli should not have been allowed to make.
  • Tyler Dellow: What can the NHL’s last three turtle derbies tell us about the playoff race in the West?
  • Lowetide: Oilers sign Mikko Koskinen long term, signalling the end of the line for Cam Talbot in Edmonton.
  • Lowetide: The Oilers’ way forward and the smartest route to finding an impact winger this summer.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Goalless Tobias Rieder hopes to follow Zack Kassian and Milan Lucic and end his offensive funk.
  • Lowetide: Complete Oilers top 20 prospects, Winter 2018

CEILINGS

NHLE equivalencies are interesting but shouldn’t be used as a magic number. For these two gents, who spent the early part of their careers in different worlds, using NHLE is an interesting exercise. We don’t know how much time Yamamoto spent on the ice in his draft year, but Puljujarvi played 15:04 against men.

I’ve been thinking about this for awhile, mostly because Puljujarvi’s offense has always been just on the blue side of lonesome. I decided it might be an idea to compare apples to apples. So, here are Puljujarvi’s numbers (not NHLE, but TOI, points and points-per-60) compared to Sebastian Aho in their respective years coming through the system.

At 17, both Puljujarvi and Aho were in the Sm-Liiga and playing complementary roles. Pulju moved on the North America, Aho stayed in Finland and dominated.

In draft +2, the two men aren’t so far apart, but draft +3 sees Aho spike and Puljujarvi (so far) isn’t close to good enough. Funny thing, this season JP hasn’t played much with Connor McDavid, accounting for at least some of the gap in 5-on-5 scoring year over year.

If you add another six points to JP’s point totals (implied by increased usage) he’s at 15 with half a season to go. We’re not talking big numbers here but Puljujarvi’s offense with 97 is NHL calibre. He could survive in the league with that number. How do other Oilers wingers do with McDavid?

As we might expect, Leon Draisaitl shines like a diamond here. Drake Caggiula proved capable as well, recently waived Ty Rattie also posting a number over 2.00 per 60.

After that, it’s Puljujarvi. We can suggest a small sample, except we know he came in around this year’s number in over 250 minutes with the captain one year ago. JP is a legit option for McDavid. Does playing the big Finn alongside McDavid benefit 97?

Interesting to see Peter Chiarelli traded the best secondary modern option, and 97 played over 140 minutes with Caggiula. McDavid with Draisaitl works, this number is spectacular.

Puljujarvi is in a group just below and I’m pleased Hitchcock has tried the Finn with McDavid in recent days. Just a moment to highlight McDavid-Yamamoto and the fact it isn’t working. If the Oilers are trying to force the future, I endorse that kind of thinking, but Puljujarvi is a clearly superior choice at this time. What about Puljujarvi with the various centers?

Puljujarvi is best with McDavid, and he moves the needle with Nuge, too. Fascinating to see 70 minutes invested with Draisaitl and not one point by the youngster. I’m tempted to say he needs a Finnish mentor center ala Derek Roy with Nail Yakupov.

THE FINAL 30 GAMES

I’d run him with McDavid. Damn the torpedoes. Edmonton has to find out about this young man’s offensive potential. If he plays 300 minutes with 97 in the final 30 games and scores 10+ points, then he’ll be an option for that position. If he scores less, we can assume he’s a checker. More than 10 points? Music! We’ll have an answer by spring. Jesse Puljujarvi has earned that much.

WILL THAT HAPPEN?

It might, if JP can catch fire. Hitchcock has lined 98 up with 97 to start recent games, before beginning the resurrection shuffle. Puljujarvi could also be traded.

Keith Gretzky has no connection to Puljujarvi, he was in Boston at the time of the 2016 draft. Orphaned hockey players badly need an inside champion, it’s uncertain which way the wind blows internally.

What I hope for is this: Gretzky sees the potential in this player, Hitchcock develops a stubborn streak and we see some kind of pressure point, breakthrough and success between now and the end of the season. Whatever it is that keeps Jesse Puljujarvi from reaching his potential can’t be so overwhelming that the organization gives up on him now.

JP didn’t ask for the Bakersfield-to-Edmonton-to-Bakersfield shuttle, the Oilers imposed it on him. If it’s time to stand and deliver, give the young man the tools to succeed. McDavid or Nuge 5-on-5, and enough power-play time to build some confidence. He might just repay the organization with 20 years of quality. There is some vagueness to his scoring skills, but no unproven Oilers forward has the kind of potential Puljujarvi displays.

Take 30. Find out. It’s the right thing to do.

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353 Responses to "Take 30"

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  1. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar: Spooner has played a grand total of 55 minutes with one of Drai or McDavid and, in my opinion, hasn’t been given a chance to show he can produce in the top 6.

    I agree, he hasn’t shown much of anything, however, he has played 3rd and 4th line minutes on a team that has the worst offensive depth in the NHL – so he’s played with the worst offensive linemates in the NHL (essentially).

    I choose him over Rattie right now because (a) he hasn’t been given the chance and (b) Spooner has a history of producing in the NHL in exactly that role – Rattie doesn’t really.

    You must be related to the Spooners.
    We got a dud. Chia got us a dud. We need to admit it and move on

  2. Pescador says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I found that very interesting.

    For those who didn’t see it here it is:

    3. On the topic of Taylor Hall, there are a lot of people who want to know how many of the trades that Peter Chiarelli engineered were solely on him and which ones he received heavy influence on from within the organization. Chiarelli was on-board with the Hall trade or he would not have made it. But I believe there were at least 3 loud voices within the Oilers organization at the time that all wanted Hall out. However none of those 3 men, including the G.M. Chiarelli, are still with the Oilers today. Hall has just one more, full year remaining on his deal after this season. New jersey can’t afford to let him walk for nothing. Every team in the NHL should entertain acquiring…or re-acquiring him.

    Link: https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/the-front-runner-to-become-the-new-general-manager-of-the-edmonton-oilers-and-other-all-star-break-musings-9-things

    I find that interesting because that’s essentially what I heard…….

    Let me guess, NJ would want something more substantial than Larrson in return?
    I would trade JP the 2020 1st & a D prospect, contingent on a contract extension being agreed to.

  3. Pescador says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Jethro Tull,

    Thank you.

    Signing Russell really set the team back imo.

    Not that he’s not a NHL player.Matt Henderson’s visceral hate in this regards is terrible.

    If Russell was signed for 2 x2.5MM to play 3LD and fill in on 2RD when needed it would have been fine.

    Giving him 4 x4 cemented his spot at 2RD and outside his 16/17 PDO heater its not been good.

    Hasn’t been terrible, but hasn’t been good either.

    from 17/18 until today:

    Russell with Nurse 50.7% GF
    Nurse without Russell 52.2% GF
    Russell without Nurse 44.9% GF

    Pete filling 2RD with Russell was one of his more “under the radar” mistakes with the general fan base.

    Can the new GM please understand the definition of PDO,
    Or is that too much to ask for?

  4. jtblack says:

    Ryan,

    JETS & CAPS have most consistent quality of 1st round picks in NHL IMO. Thats in last 15 for CAPS last 10 for Jets

  5. leadfarmer says:

    Pescador: Let me guess, NJ would want something more substantial than Larrson in return?
    I would trade JP the 2020 1st & a D prospect, contingent on a contract extension being agreed too.

    Is that more substantial than Larsson?

  6. jtblack says:

    Pescador: Let me guess, NJ would want something more substantial than Larrson in return?
    I would trade JP the 2020 1st & a D prospect, contingent on a contract extension being agreed to.

    Can Edm really find Cap room for Hall?

    HALL is signing for a minimum of $10 mil per

  7. jtblack says:

    GREAT THREAD ALSO.

    Very interesting perspectives & info

  8. slopitch says:

    @Woodguy, when you say willing to move the 1st you mean now or this summer? Just curious. I dont hate the argument for either. 2019 isnt 2015 in draft quality. Just the risk now is very high. But I see no reason to throw a season with 97 on the roster.

    Im with ya. Bring 4 back. FFS.

  9. jtblack says:

    WG has a good argumentnon the timeline and How that could affect keeping or trading the 1st round pick.

    WG. If Edm picks top 10, we keep it. Most of those players (picked inside top 10) arrive quickly and with impact.

    If Edm picks outside the Top 10; then I am all ears on a deal for Ehlers type.

  10. Wilde says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Great stuff sir!!!!

    Really appreciate the work.

    I’m glad people are digging it

  11. leadfarmer says:

    I imagine Hall would have little interest coming back here. Time to move on. Even if we could afford him which we can’t.

  12. jtblack says:

    IMO you cannot trade the 2019 1st until the summer.

    Even with protection, its too risky See Ottawa as an example.

    in a wordt case scenario, Edm moves their 2019 1st and then goes in the tank and that pick is high So edm keeps it and then in 2020 McFavid had a major injury and team tanks

    Small odds of happening, but IT IS HAAPPENING to Ottawa in Real time.

    Only move the 1st once Edm knows what # it is

  13. flyfish1168 says:

    workaroundaccount: The more you learn about football, the more you respect Belichick. Brady is awesome, but I do think other QBs could be as good in New England. Tom’s been a top 5-10 qb his whole career, but swap him for Romo or Rivers and I don’t see a huge falloff for the Pats. His team will run almost a completely different system week to week. And his teams can flawlessly execulte a new play with bo reps. Last week they put in 10 plays leaving the hotel. 3 of those were used late in the game for big first downs. That’s basically unheard of. It will be exciting to see what happens when Brady retires. Pats have lots of picks this year, and should get a QB this year.

    What sets Brady apart from Romo, Rivers and Manning is his ability to be patient take what is given, adjust game plan and follow a script from Belichick. The others often have their egos and are impatient and force a play that isn’t there. Tom’s respect and attitude for his Coach sets him apart from the other QB’s

  14. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I don’t agree that it cemented his spot at 2RD due to the “can’t have $4M playing on the third pairing”. I think Russell has proven to be the best option at 2RD over the last 3 years.Now the contract may have cemented that indirectly but not allowing the team to acquire a real 2RD….

    You can’t afford a real 2RD when you have 4 Dmen over 4MM already.

    Also, being their best option at 2RD is a scathing indictment on their Dman depth.

    That contract locked him in and locked a better player out.

    Peter stated that he thought Drai’s playoff heater (~1130 PDO – sun hot) was what he expected from him in the future.

    He obviously expected Russell’s PDO to continue as well.

    It’s not good player evaluation at all.

    It’s terrible.

  15. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bruce McCurdy: …by drafting Dubois? 😉

    Bruce with the hard hit flyball!!!

  16. Pescador says:

    jtblack: Can Edm really find Cap room for Hall?

    HALL is signing for a minimum of $10 mil per

    Hometown discount?

  17. Pescador says:

    leadfarmer: Is that more substantial than Larsson?

    We’re talking about Philip right?

  18. Bag of Pucks says:

    Bruce McCurdy: …by drafting Dubois?

    Nice one.

  19. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide: If you’re the Oilers, it’s also true trading for Hall would be an enormous PR positive. And they need it.

    I think it would be too.

    What about the portion of the fan base who are all in in “Hall had to go?”

    Are they are a significant size?

    I think it would go a loooooong way with NHL players as well.

  20. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – This is just an awesome quote, becasue its from MSM, and totally represents the Oiler “culture”:

    “Kelly and his West-Central Saskatchewan style would mesh perfectly with the Edmonton market, much better than the Ivy League approach of Chiraelli did”

    – He’s practically signed with this endorsement from the gang: just need a GM that meshes, and we are good to go, Kelly’s the man…

  21. Bag of Pucks says:

    flyfish1168: What sets Brady apart from Romo, Rivers and Manning is his ability to be patient take what is given, adjust game plan and follow a script from Belichick.The others often have their egos and are impatient and force a play that isn’t there. Tom’s respect and attitude for his Coach sets him apart from the other QB’s

    Plus Bill never lets him stay comfortable even though he’s the GOAT. Lots of stories in that book how Bill still chews him out in practice and in the film room. Sets the tone for the whole team when even a first ballot Hall of Famer doesn’t get a pass for mental errors.

    ‘Just do your job’. Genius in its simplicity.

    One revealing story. They’re reviewing film in a teamwide meeting of Brady throwing a pick into triple coverage. Bellichick says, “WTF Brady, you threw a pass into their team meeting?” He then replays the clip over and over and over. Bellichick Might be a terrible human being. Phenomenal football coach however.

  22. theDjdj says:

    Glovjuice:
    Deafheaven doing Honeycomb in a theatre. For those who cant handle the vocals and like clasic Siamese Dream era Smashing Pumpkins make sure you get to the last 1/3. Brilliant music.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=sC3V6DU-o9k

    Well this is a post I never expected on this blog. Deafheaven are terrific. I hope to catch them playing in Sydney next week.

  23. Todd Macallan says:

    Marody and Joey G in the Ahl skills comp on SN currently

  24. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jtblack:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    All interesting stuff.

    “Pete didn’t have to give away Hall to improve the Dcorps enough to make the team above average.”– I think the Leafs are proving this. Similiar to edm. Kept all young talent ; made minor D moves. signed solid goalie.Team wins

    Agreed.

    And EDM had better pieces in after the draft lottery in 2015 than TOR has today.

  25. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I think it would be too.

    What about the portion of the fan base who are all in in “Hall had to go?”

    Are they are a significant size?

    I think it would go a loooooong way with NHL players as well.

    I guess we all died a little in that damned war.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XBUg-Ic7PPY

  26. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Ryan: Off topic per my recent post, Morrissey vs Nurse? Who do you think is a better defenseman?

    Morrissey has better results at 1LD, but he’s playing with Trouba who is the goods too.

    Morrissey had better offensive acumen in the ozone.

    I think it’s Morrissey by a bit but I’d like to see 2 seasons of Nurse with Trouba to compare to be sure.

    Nurse with Larsson in 1st pair last year was pretty good.

    Wish EDM had Petry or similar around to play with Nurse full time so we’d actually know.

  27. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    – The Patriots are the only team in professional sport that I can recall that doesn’t have a “book” to beat them, nor do they have a “book” to beat teams

    – For sure its coaching and choosing the right personel, but they win by airing it out, or playing smash-smouth, 2 TE set, Brady doing it all, good WR’s, not good WR’s.

    – On D, they are the only team that will play different D according to their opponent: they sometimes shut-down QB’s, other times they go toe to toe (contrast the 2 KC wins this year). The stop the running game if that’s the call, they play tight D games, or bend-not-break

    – On any given week, for almost every team, a good analyst can come up with a key 2 or 3 things that teams needs to do. The Patriots though, they aren’t built that way

    – An anomoly in sport IMO: yes Brady, but they win so many ways, so many different players that are interchangeable

  28. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Ryan: Not under the radar. If I could find a way to easily search my old posts, I contemporaneously wrote the exact post at the time of his signing.

    I wrote “under the radar with the general fanbase”

    Many here wrote our displeasure with the Russell extension at the time.

    You and I among others.

  29. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Hopefully we are able to give it a real chance this year (if we don’t trade Talbot for Burakovsky to fill that spot).

    We have a winger with a history of providing 2nd line production as a complementary player – that’s exactly what this team needs – I would posit this player has not been given a real chance to succeed.

    Not “possing a drop” with Joe G. and Brodziak, well, that doesn’t mean anything to me.

    Agreed.

    You have to bust ass without the puck to play top 6 for Hitch.

    I hope it happens.

  30. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer: You must be related to the Spooners.
    We got a dud.Chia got us a dud.We need to admit it and move on

    Maybe but, as of right now, all I know is that he got us a player that the coach will not play in the role that he’s succeeded in for multiple years in the NHL – essentially every year except for this year.

  31. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Pescador: Let me guess, NJ would want something more substantial than Larrson in return?
    I would trade JP the 2020 1st & a D prospect, contingent on a contract extension being agreed to.

    I do that as well.

  32. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Bag of Pucks: I encourage you to read that book. You may feel differently. Brady is undoubtedly a special player but he’s also been put in the perfect environment to succeed. The book talks about how he’s the perfect QB for his HC because he follows the route progressions to a tee and doesn’t freelance outside the playbook like a Favre or Romo.

    The Pats D shutdown Mahomes in the first half last week. That’s not Brady. That’s Bill.

    What makes the Patriots a very special team is their work ethic. They don’t play the same scheme all season and just add a few new wrinkles each week. They’ll install an entirely new defensive scheme specific to an opponent. That requires an extreme work ethic from the coaches, and players have to be smart and coachable to pull it off.

    I’m not an NFL buff but have often said to involved fans that Brady wouldn’t be Brady in another system.

    Perhaps Bellichek would also have a different career arc, but I think more substantial than Brady because he controls everything.

    Super-partnerships are rare and spectacular. It’s what made the Sather Oilers such a thing.

  33. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Pescador: Can the new GM please understand the definition of PDO,
    Or is that too much to ask for?

    I think it’s still to much to ask with the current group.

    I saw the other day here that McCrimmon was responsible for picking the WC players.

    I haven’t dug into too deep into it, but will.

  34. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: You can’t afford a real 2RD when you have 4 Dmen over 4MM already.

    Also, being their best option at 2RD is a scathing indictment on their Dman depth.

    That contract locked him in and locked a better player out.

    Peter stated that he thought Drai’s playoff heater (~1130 PDO – sun hot) was what he expected from him in the future.

    He obviously expected Russell’s PDO to continue as well.

    It’s not good player evaluation at all.

    It’s terrible.

    I’m not arguing against any of that, and I agree with most of it.

    I have been very very very critical of that contract over the years – expressed consistently that the manager went 0/3 – he lost on AAV, term and trade protection – and he did this on June 23.

    It was even more egregious because it was within two months of the manager expressly stating that the D-group wasn’t good enough to compete with the likes of NSH and ANA in the playoffs – he then signed a contract that locked in the top 4 for the next few years.

    I was just responding to the point that the $4M has forced management to play him at 2RD – if that was the point being made and it seems we are on the same page, its an indirect force.

  35. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jtblack: Can Edm really find Cap room for Hall?

    HALL is signing for a minimum of $10 mil per

    They will have room in 20/21.

    He will already have made over $50MM in his career by that time to he *might* not hold feet to the fire for dollars if he’s going where he wants to go.

  36. Ryan says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Morrissey has better results at 1LD, but he’s playing with Trouba who is the goods too.

    Morrissey had better offensive acumen in the ozone.

    I think it’s Morrissey by a bit but I’d like to see 2 seasons of Nurse with Trouba to compare to be sure.

    Nurse with Larsson in 1st pair last year was pretty good.

    Wish EDM had Petry or similar around to play with Nurse full time so we’d actually know.

    We’re in agreement about Morrissey.

    Winnipeg is reputedly a budget organization.

    Their website lists 21 personnel involved in scouting.

    https://www.nhl.com/jets/team/hockeyoperations

    The Oilers website lists 13.

    https://www.nhl.com/oilers/team/scouting-staff

    This is not a joke. 🙂

  37. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    slopitch:
    @Woodguy, when you say willing to move the 1st you mean now or this summer? Just curious. I dont hate the argument for either. 2019 isnt 2015 in draft quality. Just the risk now is very high. But I see no reason to throw a season with 97 on the roster.

    Im with ya. Bring 4 back. FFS.

    In the summer.

    EDM isn’t adding a top 6 forward, whether it’s Hall or Ehlers or other until then.

    That kind of deal doesn’t happen until the draft.

  38. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wilde:
    Just finished a profile of Tyler Benson using public data, my tracking project’s numbers, and video:

    http://petropraxis.blogspot.com/2019/01/player-profile-16-tyler-benson.html

    Great work – as always.

    One question, which stretch of 16 games does this cover?

    My assumption is it doesn’t include his red-hot December which would only serve to make the numbers look even better, I would think.

  39. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jtblack:
    WG has a good argumentnon the timeline and How that could affect keeping or trading the 1st round pick.

    WG. If Edm picks top 10, we keep it. Most of those players (picked inside top 10) arrive quickly and with impact.

    If Edm picks outside the Top 10; then I am all ears on a deal for Ehlers type.

    Ehlers:

    – produces at a top 6 rate
    -is a positive RelTeam GF% and CF%
    -is signed for $6MM for 6 more years
    -Turns 23 in February

    That’s worth waaaay more than the 10th in 2019.

    EDM would have to add JP and maybe more to get him

    I would do it too.

  40. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I do that as well.

    For an extended player? His rental for playoffs would cost that

  41. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer:
    I imagine Hall would have little interest coming back here.Time to move on.Even if we could afford him which we can’t.

    I disagree on all points

  42. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Peter stated that he thought Drai’s playoff heater (~1130 PDO – sun hot) was what he expected from him in the future.

    It’s not good player evaluation at all.

    It’s terrible.

    – Drai is currently 10th in league in points this year: and room to improve, which is probably compounded by the lack of healthy D that exposes the team. If the D was better, he’s better IMO

    – Since he’s signed that contract he’s 19th in the league in points

    – It is dissapointing that he hasn’t played more as the 2C, but that’s not on him

    – His performance is what most would have expected: producing at elite top-line levels

    – Blast away at Chia, but Drai isn’t one one of them.

  43. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer: For an extended player?His rental for playoffs would cost that

    No, for a player with 1 year left on his deal.

    You don’t do it unless you know he’ll extend but he’s not extended until after you get him.

  44. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Drai is currently 10th in league in points this year: and room to improve, which is probably compounded by the lack of healthy D that exposes the team.If the D was better, he’s better IMO

    – Since he’s signed that contract he’s 19th in the league in points

    – It is dissapointing that he hasn’t played more as the 2C, but that’s not on him

    – His performance is what most would have expected: producing at elite top-line levels

    – Blast away at Chia, but Drai isn’t one one of them.

    You misunderstood my post.

    Peter explicated stated that he expected Drai’s PDO heater to be his normal level in the future.

    That is an indictment on Peter’s ability to evaluate players.

    It has nothing to do with Drai.

  45. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Ryan: Now here’s an idea right out of left field. Find out who’s largely responsible for the Jets draft selections and try to recruit them…

    The Jets have kicked our $#$ at the draft for years.

    2011: Jets take Scheifele at 7 vs Nugent-Hopkins #1. Jets draft from behind us and get the better player. Luck? Keep reading.

    2012: Yikes. Oilers draft Yakupov at #1 OV. The Jets take trouba at 9 (9th on Mckenzie’s list)

    2013: The Jets draft Morrissey at #13 (28th on Mckenzie’s list) vs Nurse at 7th. Absolute home run for the jets. I’ll let Woodguy weigh in on who he likes better.

    Depending on your preference. Those are three years in a row the Jets drafted behind us and got better players.

    2014: Ehlers at 9 (10th on Mckenzie) vs Draisatl at #3. Okay, we got the better player here.

    2015: Well. McDavid at #1 is one of the biggest no-brainer in history, so that goes without saying. However, we would have drafted Eriksson Ek at 15 and the Jets took Connor at 17, so we’ll exclude the McDavid pick and give the Jets the win here (courtesy of Bob Stauffer).

    2016: Well the Jets drafted ahead of us for the first time and made no mistake with Laine though the Oilers #4 OV selection looks to be in trouble.

    2017. The Jets take Vesalainen at 24 (15th on Mckenzie’s list) while the Oilers grab Yamomoto 22nd (24rth on Mckenzie’s list). I’ll go with Winnipeg on this one though it remains to be determined.

    Other than that, the Oilers grabbed Klefbomb with the extra 1st rounder from Dustin Penner in 2011.

    There were the nice selections of Reider and Gustaffsson that the Oilers later gave away for nothing.

    JJ’s a decent player from the 3rd round in 2012.

    The Jets found their starting goalie in the 5th round of 2012, so there’s that. They found a few grinders here and there and some recent late round picks with a pulse.

    Overall for first rounders, the only superior success the Oilers have had vs the Jets in the last 8 drafts are McDavid and Draisatl. The Oilers allegedly would have lost the 2015 draft with the Jets taking Connor over Ek and they didn’t do badly in selecting Ehlers at 9.

    Overall. that’s pretty amazing that the Jets went way off board and selected a number one centre (Scheifele) and top pairing d (Morrissey). No Yakupovs or Pulujarvis either.

    It used to be Detroit and now Jets as draft kings. The Jets were awful wallowing in the depths for years with a motionless GM, so the narrative went. Now he’s a genius.

    The Wings were horrible for years and then draft gurus, and now they can’t find genius anymore, same GM.

    The Jets strategy came down to money (broke) and the Wings to drafting low and finding a brief window of advantage. Good on Holland for that window.

    The Oiler’s draft issue was bad luck. They won 1 OV in 2 weak draft years, their only mistake was not trading down, I don’t know why, I think hubris/embarrassment may be a part of that. They got Gords lucky in one draft were 1OV wasn’t in the bag.

    Teams that pick the best player in a draft in a lower position aren’t smarter. Most would have picked close to consensus if they could have, they got ‘lucky’ to miss the top of the draft and made the smart/lucky choice.

    Drafting 17 YO people is not an exact science.

    Winnipeg and TO will have the cap as the cause of upcoming drops in roster depth, but many will go off on that. Context is king.

    The Oilers have absorbed most of their cap crunch already, and a savvy GM will make hay and if so will be hailed as the next genius. But the crunch was already past. A little cap clearing and knowing what a helpful NHL player looks like is all that is needed to make a good team.

  46. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – This is just an awesome quote, becasue its from MSM, and totally represents the Oiler “culture”:

    “Kelly and his West-Central Saskatchewan style would mesh perfectly with the Edmonton market, much better than the Ivy League approach of Chiraelli did”

    – He’s practically signed with this endorsement from the gang: just need a GM that meshes, and we are good to go, Kelly’s the man…

    Leavins isn’t MSM in the full context.

    He blogs on Cult of Hockey while being retired or semi-retired on Pender Island in the Straight of Georgia.

    He knows people though.

  47. workaroundaccount says:

    Bag of Pucks: Plus Bill never lets him stay comfortable even though he’s the GOAT. Lots of stories in that book how Bill still chews him out in practice and in the film room. Sets the tone for the whole team when even a first ballot Hall of Famer doesn’t get a pass for mental errors.

    ‘Just do your job’. Genius in its simplicity.

    One revealing story. They’re reviewing film in a teamwide meeting of Brady throwing a pick into triple coverage. Bellichick says, “WTF Brady, you threw a pass into their team meeting?” He then replays the clip over and over and over. Bellichick Might be a terrible human being. Phenomenal football coach however.

    I think he’s misunderstood. To be a football coach, you have to establish yourself as alpha male in a room full of alpha males. Holding guys accountable like that comes with the territory. I think Bill is actually a brilliant teacher. He gets guys to a point where they are like coaches on the field. Check out this clip of him and Brady scheming. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x_KWBldxNn8&frags=pl%2Cwn Bill makes players who would be smart enough to call a game if the coaches flight got cancelled.

    Meanwhile it took MacT 5 years to teach Smid the backdoor play.

  48. Ryan says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Ehlers:

    – produces at a top 6 rate
    -is a positive RelTeam GF% and CF%
    -is signed for $6MM for 6 more years
    -Turns 23 in February

    That’s worth waaaay more than the 10th in 2019.

    EDM would have to add JP and maybe more to get him

    I would do it too.

    Agreed. Ehlers is an ideal target.

    The mythical “first person shooter” the Oilers are chasing.

  49. Wilde says:

    OriginalPouzar: Great work – as always.

    One question, which stretch of 16 games does this cover?

    My assumption is it doesn’t include his red-hot December which would only serve to make the numbers look even better, I would think.

    Ah, I forgot I didn’t add the part of the upcoming team-based post that detailed how I’ve been getting around problems like this and diversifying the sample.

    I deliberately space out the games I’m retroactively tracking, trying to keep the percentage of games tracked per month fairly even, while also spreading out the games among different opposition. One problem I did have is the game against the Gulls early in the year when Anaheim was crazy injured and took some of the best Gulls from them.

    That’s the balance I looked for except for Puljujärvi’s four games, all in a row in November, that I did because I was very curious. Ended up getting too many games against the Reign as a result, who suck.

    Here were the games tracked, vetted, and ready to go at the time of writing:

    October 20th, 27th

    November 16th, 17th, 20th, 23rd, 24th, 29th

    December 5th, 8th, 19th, 22nd, 31st

    January 5th, 8th, 19th

    Three against Stockton; three against Colorado; four against Ontario; one against San Jose, one against Manitoba, one against Tucson; one against San Diego; one against Texas.

  50. Drew says:

    leadfarmer: For an extended player?His rental for playoffs would cost that

    I believe Connor would provide interest for Hall. Also there could be desire to prove the doubters wrong (hi Peter!).

  51. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Woodguy v2.0:

    Peter explicated stated that he expected Drai’s PDO heater to be his normal level in the future.

    – Quote please? If he specifically said ” I expect his PDO heater to last” I’ll eat my hat”

    – If he said something along the lines of “Drai is a special player, and he really showed it what he is capable of in the playoffs, and that is what we signed him for”, then yeah

    – That playoff heater certainly got him more money than had they not made the playoffs: we don’t disagree

  52. Hairbag says:

    Material Elvis,

    The Oilers rush young players all the time and don’t develop them properly – the majority of this is on them as they never put kids in a position to succeed! The Oilers lack of depth has forced them to try and rush to fill holes in the big league roster with young players that have no business being there. Jesse is one of these – he also started behind the eight ball coming off a knee injury his first year where he couldn’t train properly all summer. All this and he is still only 20. This organization has a ridiculously poor record developing their own and then the players take the fall – what’s the definition of insanity again……..

  53. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Leavins isn’t MSM in the full context.

    He blogs on Cult of Hockey while being retired or semi-retired on Pender Island in the Straight of Georgia.

    He knows people though.

    – The EJ is MSM: its there for main street consumption. Pretty sure McCrimmon is by far the gangs choice if they had their way, and he’s the main top-pick by most MSM:

    https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/the-front-runner-to-become-the-new-general-manager-of-the-edmonton-oilers-and-other-all-star-break-musings-9-things

  54. Material Elvis says:

    Drew: I believe Connor would provide interest for Hall. Also there could be desire to prove the doubters wrong(hi Peter!).

    Or he could choose to play for a Stanley Cup contender while giving Edmonton the proverbial middle finger…..by signing with the Flames.

  55. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Pescador: Let me guess, NJ would want something more substantial than Larrson in return?
    I would trade JP the 2020 1st & a D prospect, contingent on a contract extension being agreed to.

    Hall’s injury and obvious previous league rep still make him a buy low. Not saying he wouldn’t be a great addition.

    The Oilers have to be done with overpaying.

    NJ is not a good team, Hall is broken and has a bad rep still – not being selected multiple times for world teams he should have been on.

    The first and a lesser prospect still gives NJ the win on the back and forth.

    Nothing more, certainly not 2 firsts (JP was) +, unless were talking a bonafide, league wide considered player like McKinnon, Rantanen, etc. Hall is still not that, he’s a stats darling. Too many ifs with Taylor. And no established PPG + record.

  56. Material Elvis says:

    Hairbag:
    Material Elvis,

    The Oilers rush young players all the time and don’t develop them properly – the majority of this is on them as they never put kids in a position to succeed!The Oilers lack of depth has forced them to try and rush to fill holes in the big league roster with young players that have no business being there. Jesse is one of these – he also started behind the eight ball coming off a knee injury his first year where he couldn’t train properly all summer.All this and he is still only 20.This organization has a ridiculously poor record developing their own and then the players take the fall – what’s the definition of insanity again……..

    No argument here. The Oilers track record speaks for itself. They have rushed all first rounders, except for Eberle and Nurse. Maybe Draisaitl wasn’t rushed but he got to play with Taylor Hall immediately so I’m not sure he qualifies. That is why I’m extra happy that Chiarelli is gone — he would have penciled Bouchard into the lineup next season no matter what.

    In JP’s specific case, his development was rushed (surprise!) but I think that talent overcomes development if there truly is a player there. I’m not willing to write him off yet but he’s going to have to show more next season if he wants a top 6 job.

  57. Material Elvis says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Ehlers:

    – produces at a top 6 rate
    -is a positive RelTeam GF% and CF%
    -is signed for $6MM for 6 more years
    -Turns 23 in February

    That’s worth waaaay more than the 10th in 2019.

    EDM would have to add JP and maybe more to get him

    I would do it too.

    Ok I’m glad you like that idea. I floated it out there a little while ago and didn’t get any feedback. I wasn’t sure if I was out-to-lunch on that one or not. My other trade idea was Nurse for Kapanen (plus). Nurse’s history with Dubas, the fact that everyone thinks the Leafs are soft, the impending loss of Jake Gardiner, and TO’s forward depth all point to this being a reasonable idea. Would you do it?

  58. Tibor says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I too think Hall returning is a distinct possibility. Stauffer has dropped a few hints of Hall coming here, very reminiscent of the time leading up to the Lucic signing.

  59. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bouchard held off the score-sheet in a 5-3 win – 5 shots on net and a plus 1.

  60. Todd Macallan says:

    Jeez Marody with a beauty Weight-esque breakaway goal in the skills comp just now, hopefully finds its way to Twitter

  61. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Wilde:
    Anyone else see that bit about Hall in Kurt Leavins’ piece?

    Yup. Intersting.

    The McCrimmon bit made my stomach turn.

    Could not care less about what he spoke about in terms of GM. Sounds so much like the disasters of that last forever.

  62. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wilde: Ah, I forgot I didn’t add the part of the upcoming team-based post that detailed how I’ve been getting around problems like this and diversifying the sample.
    I deliberately space out the games I’m retroactively tracking, trying to keep the percentage of games tracked per month fairly even, while also spreading out the games among different opposition. One problem I did have is the game against the Gulls early in the year when Anaheim was crazy injured and took some of the best Gulls from them.
    That’s the balance I looked for except for Puljujärvi’s four games, all in a row in November, that I did because I was very curious. Ended up getting too many games against the Reign as a result, who suck.
    Here were the games tracked, vetted, and ready to go at the time of writing:
    October 20th, 27th
    November 16th, 17th, 20th, 23rd, 24th, 29th
    December 5th, 8th, 19th, 22nd, 31st
    January 5th, 8th, 19th
    Three against Stockton; three against Colorado; four against Ontario; one against San Jose, one against Manitoba, one against Tucson; one against San Diego; one against Texas.

    Thank you very much for the response and, wow, that is great work.

  63. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Quote please?If he specifically said ” I expect his PDO heater to last” I’ll eat my hat”

    – If he said something along the lines of “Drai is a special player, and he really showed it what he is capable of in the playoffs, and that is what we signed him for”, then yeah

    – That playoff heater certainly got him more money than had they not made the playoffs: we don’t disagree

    He didn’t expressly say that he expects Drai to score at a 100 point pace (16P in 13G – 1.2 PPG) and, essentially be the best offensive player in the playoffs (he finished 7th and only played two rounds) but he did state that his playoff performance showed how good he was and was a factor.

    As it turns out, he’s scoring this year at a very similar rate as he did in those playoffs.

  64. OriginalPouzar says:

    Hairbag:
    Material Elvis,

    The Oilers rush young players all the time and don’t develop them properly – the majority of this is on them as they never put kids in a position to succeed!The Oilers lack of depth has forced them to try and rush to fill holes in the big league roster with young players that have no business being there. Jesse is one of these – he also started behind the eight ball coming off a knee injury his first year where he couldn’t train properly all summer.All this and he is still only 20.This organization has a ridiculously poor record developing their own and then the players take the fall – what’s the definition of insanity again……..

    This rings true to me, however, at least the last number of years, its essentially only their top 10 picks (and Yamamoto)..

    Klefbom, for example, wasn’t rushed.

    Even Nurse wasn’t rushed (except for a move up the lineup in his rookie year due to injuries).

    Outside of the first round, development has been proper, at least the last few years – the organization is about to reap the benefits.

  65. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – The EJ is MSM:its there for main street consumption.Pretty sure McCrimmon is by far the gangs choice if they had their way, and he’s the main top-pick by most MSM:

    Different contributors to the Journal have different access to member of the Oiler organization.

    I like Kurt Leavins but he does not have the same access as Terry Jones, Jim Matheson, Mark Spector or even Jason Gregor.

  66. OriginalPouzar says:

    Scungilli Slushy: H
    NJ is not a good team, Hall is broken and has a bad rep still – not being selected multiple times for world teams he should have been on.

    Winning the Hart may show that reputation is no longer as strong (I acknowledge that its the PHWA voting on the Hart – not actual decision makers within the game).

  67. OriginalPouzar says:

    Material Elvis: No argument here.The Oilers track record speaks for itself.They have rushed all first rounders, except for Eberle and Nurse.Maybe Draisaitl wasn’t rushed but he got to play with Taylor Hall immediately so I’m not sure he qualifies.That is why I’m extra happy that Chiarelli is gone — he would have penciled Bouchard into the lineup next season no matter what.

    Klefbom should be added to the “non-rushed” list.

  68. OriginalPouzar says:

    Todd Macallan:
    Jeez Marody with a beauty Weight-esque breakaway goal in the skills comp just now, hopefully finds its way to Twitter

    https://twitter.com/Condors/status/1089700646574383104

  69. Material Elvis says:

    OriginalPouzar: Klefbom should be added to the “non-rushed” list.

    Right. Missed that one. Another non-rushed success. I think there’s a pattern here.

  70. Material Elvis says:

    OriginalPouzar: https://twitter.com/Condors/status/1089700646574383104

    He used that move in a shootout earlier in the year — also a goal.

  71. Material Elvis says:

    OriginalPouzar: Different contributors to the Journal have different access to member of the Oiler organization.

    I like Kurt Leavins but he does not have the same access as Terry Jones, Jim Matheson, Mark Spector or even Jason Gregor.

    I saw John Shannon hanging out with Kevin Lowe one night at a downtown bar after the game. They looked pretty chummy. I’m guessing that Shannon is very connected.

  72. Professor Q says:

    Pescador: Yes, the Oilers should have drafted Debrincat in 2017 instead of Yamamoto, excellent point.
    In all seriousness, who should the Oilers have drafted instead?
    I don’t follow the players that were drafted after 22nd OV

    Hard to draft a player drafted in the prior year’s draft. Chicago would have had something to say about Edmonton attempting that.

    I like Benson but DeBrincat in 2016 made too much sense.

  73. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Quote please?If he specifically said ” I expect his PDO heater to last” I’ll eat my hat”

    – If he said something along the lines of “Drai is a special player, and he really showed it what he is capable of in the playoffs, and that is what we signed him for”, then yeah

    – That playoff heater certainly got him more money than had they not made the playoffs: we don’t disagree

    It came from two spots:

    1) Peter’s avail soon after the contract

    2) An interview with Luit about the negotiations with Peter. Luit basically said they talked about how awesome Leon was in the playoffs and how excited Peter was to see that in the future.

    I’ll try to dig both up.

    No, he didn’t specifically mention Leon’s PDO, but mentioned his goal production, which is one of two components of PDO.

    Peter wasn’t first, nor will he the last GM to fall in love with a player over a playoff heater.

    Drai’s not *that* over paid, but he is a bit.

    I wouldn’t have said a peep at $7.5MM and there are a legion of spots on the EDM roster where you can make that $1MM up.

    The rule of thumb that “if you’re going to overpay your players, overpay the best ones” holds true here.

  74. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – The EJ is MSM:its there for main street consumption.Pretty sure McCrimmon is by far the gangs choice if they had their way, and he’s the main top-pick by most MSM:

    https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/the-front-runner-to-become-the-new-general-manager-of-the-edmonton-oilers-and-other-all-star-break-musings-9-things

    I don’t disagree that there is a large neon light with “McCrimmon” on it radiating from Roger’s Place.

    I made the distinction between Leavins and MSM as most of the MSM (especially those who write for Journal/Sun) *hate* that Cult of Hockey gets referred to as MSM as they really aren’t.

    They don’t go to every game with the press pass, they don’t ask questions in the post game avail, they don’t go to practices and morning skates.

    That’s the work that the MSM does and they strongly dislike bloggers who do none of these things being lumped in with them and being on the same platform.

    Especially when the bloggers get more page views than their stuff.

    This isn’t to degrade the work that the CoH does (especially Bruce), its just relating the feeling from the writer side and where they draw the line in the sand on “MSM”

  75. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Material Elvis: Or he could choose to play for a Stanley Cup contender while giving Edmonton the proverbial middle finger…..by signing with the Flames.

    I fear that.

  76. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    OriginalPouzar: Different contributors to the Journal have different access to member of the Oiler organization.

    I like Kurt Leavins but he does not have the same access as Terry Jones, Jim Matheson, Mark Spector or even Jason Gregor.

    – when I read multiple articles that tout McCrimmon as the top GM prospect my take is not that This is a result of independent thought research and knowledge that he’d actually be a good GM rather it’s them getting a little nugget from the organization.

    – Im certain he’s the top candidate by OBC and am consequently certain he’s not the top person
    for the job.

    – I’m hopeful though (delusional perhaps?) that the organization will have learned and this time it will be different and they clean house.

  77. who says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I understand your position, but I disagree with it.

    With what we know about aging curves, NHL peak performanceis 22-28.

    Key Oilers age next October:
    McDavid – 22
    Draisaitl – 24
    RNH – 26 (where did the time go?)
    Klefbom – 26
    Larsson – 26 (27 in Nov)

    If the first rounder pans out, by the time that player is a meaningful contributor to the top 6 is probably 3 years from now.

    The window is now, which is why it was so important to get it right starting 4 years ago.

    Also,

    If a team has:
    1)2 top lines that can achieve >50%GF
    2) A bottom 6 that is greater than 45% GF
    3) A top 4 of Actual NHL Dmen (which factors into 1 and 2 quite a bit)
    4) A reasonable starting goalie (which factors into 1 and 2 quite a bit)

    then that team can be a contender.

    I think EDM is a top 6 forward and a RHD away from being that.TBA on the goalie. (Koskinen might be good enough, we don’t know yet)

    I base this on a study a I did but never published (I use the results to make futures bets on the playoffs)

    I looked at every team over the past 11 years, specifically at the GF% of their:

    1) Top line
    2) 2nd line
    3) Bottom 6

    I found this:

    A) Teams with all 3 categories > 50% made the playoffs 98% of the time
    B) Teams with 2 categories >50% and the 3rd over 45% (but under 50%) made the playoffs 80% of the time
    C) Teams with 2 categories > 50% and the 3rd lower than 45% made the playoffs 49% of the time
    D) Teams with 1 category > 50% and the other 2 lower than 50% made the playoffs 29% of the time
    E) Teams with 0 categories > 50% made the playoffs 0% of the time.

    I was quite surprised about the difference between B (80%) and C (49%). I’ve thought about this for a long time and I think its not having a black hole line/bottom 6 that sewers the good work that the other 2 categories accomplish.

    Then, when you look at playoff results it gets pretty interesting:

    Here’s how often each type of team makes the Conference Final:

    A – 30%
    B – 17%
    C – 9%
    D- 9%

    Here’s how often each type of team makes the Stanley Cup Final:

    A – 10%
    B – 11%
    C – 4%
    D – 5%

    When I dug into the difference between the team in each category (and across categories) I looked into a variety of metrics and the biggest difference was SV%/GSAA. (Goals Saved Above Average)

    The team with the goalie who had the better season SV%/GSAA won more than not (over 60% of the time)

    This is one main reason that hockey should be called Mostly Goalie.When looking at playoff upsets its almost a given that the dog team had the better SV%/GSAA goalie throughout the year.

    Note: I did the exact same study but used CF% and found the results were more spread out than GF%.I think the big reason is that CF% doesn’t take into account goaltending and to some extent “defensive ability” (minimizing high SH% shots), but that’s just a guess.

    So,

    Its my contention that EDM can be an B team (or even an A team) by adding another top 6 forward and an Actual NHL top 4 RHD and compete right away.

    Also,

    This is also the reason I was so fried by the Hall trade.

    EDM had a top line that could get >50% GF when they won McDavid.

    By adding McDavid they would have 2 lines that could do it.

    They had this without having a very good Dcorps.

    So all Pete had to do was improve the Dcorps and bottom 6 without disposing of McDavid or Hall as they drove >50%GF in front of shitty Dcorps.

    If they had an average Dcorps they’d be cooking with fire.

    Man.

    I hear what you are saying, but how do we know that those missing 2 players aren’t in the system right now?
    Jones or Bouchard? JP or Yamamoto?
    If a couple of these guys pop in the next 2 years we are there.
    If we add Ehlers where do we find 6 million?
    If we add Parayko where do we find 5 million?
    Until some salary comes off the cap we can’t afford a proven upgrade right now. But we will be able to add some salary by the fall of 2020.
    I don’t think that is too long to wait. My fear is trying to force a shorter timeline results in 4 more lost years

  78. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Scungilli Slushy,

    Hall’s injury and obvious previous league rep still make him a buy low. Not saying he wouldn’t be a great addition.

    Yeah, Hart Trophy winners are buy low.

  79. pts2pndr says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – This is just an awesome quote, becasue its from MSM, and totally represents the Oiler “culture”:

    “Kelly and his West-Central Saskatchewan style would mesh perfectly with the Edmonton market, much better than the Ivy League approach of Chiraelli did”

    – He’s practically signed with this endorsement from the gang: just need a GM that meshes, and we are good to go, Kelly’s the man…

    You believe in the Lepricon at the end of the rainbow!

  80. Pescador says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Hall’s injury and obvious previous league rep still make him a buy low. Not saying he wouldn’t be a great addition.

    The Oilers have to be done with overpaying.

    NJ is not a good team, Hall is broken and has a bad rep still – not being selected multiple times for world teams he should have been on.

    The first and a lesser prospect still gives NJ the win on the back and forth.

    Nothing more, certainly not 2 firsts (JP was)+, unless were talking a bonafide, league wide considered player like McKinnon, Rantanen, etc. Hall is still not that, he’s a stats darling. Too many ifs with Taylor. And no established PPG + record.

    I’m comfortable with “overpaying” NJ to get the player I want.
    First time for everything~~
    I like your Avatar name, was thinking about changing mine to
    Hung Lushy
    But I was raised in a home where it was best to hide your shame

  81. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    who: I hear what you are saying, but how do we know that those missing 2 players aren’t in the system right now?
    Jones or Bouchard? JP or Yamamoto?
    If a couple of these guys pop in the next 2 years we are there.
    If we add Ehlers where do we find 6 million?
    If we add Parayko where do we find 5 million?
    Until some salary comes off the cap we can’t afford a proven upgrade right now. But we will be able to add some salary by the fall of 2020.
    I don’t think that is too long to wait. My fear is trying to force a shorter timeline results in 4 more lost years

    They aren’t here because they are not NHL difference makers today.

    If they were, they’d be here.

    Bear was a gong show last year and Jones had a steep decline after a great start.

    That’s cool. That’s what to expect from kids.

    They aren’t Actual NHL top 4 Dmen or Marody etc are not top 6 NHL players today.

    Those players have a track records saying they are actually that today.

    If those players turn into those things in two years then EDM becomes an “A” team like TBY etc because they have good young players in the bottom 6 and bottom pair and that’s great.

    Everyone knows that Sergarchev plays 3rd pair for TBY right?

    That’s what I’m talking about.

  82. hunter1909 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I fear that.

    Add McDavid to the Canucks LOL

  83. pts2pndr says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Scungilli Slushy,

    Hall’s injury and obvious previous league rep still make him a buy low. Not saying he wouldn’t be a great addition.

    Yeah, Hart Trophy winners are buy low.

    I think he is saying Taylor has some hard mileage! Hall is a class act and I would like to think nobody would disagree!

  84. jtblack says:

    Random update:

    BYRAM now has 18 Goals. Draft him if avail!

  85. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    – I think the next GM is far less important than what the next GM does in terms of the structure of the organization

    – Put it this way- I’d rather Mcimmon who gets to bring in who he wants (with apologies to Bob who said Chia had full control) Over Yzerman with the same “full control” that has MacT as his # 2 Howson player development Sutter scouting and Lowe.

    – The structure matters that much.

  86. Drew says:

    Material Elvis: Or he could choose to play for a Stanley Cup contender while giving Edmonton the proverbial middle finger…..by signing with the Flames.

    Of course, i didn’t say it was a sure thing, just there is a chance.

  87. slopitch says:

    Woodguy v2.0: In the summer.

    EDM isn’t adding a top 6 forward, whether it’s Hall or Ehlers or other until then.

    That kind of deal doesn’t happen until the draft.

    Im with ya. Was more just confirming.

    I do think in the case of Ehlers that deal doesnt happen for sure until this summer. In the case of New Jersey, im not 100% sure. They are in 2nd last with only Ottawa below them – a team thats without their 1st. Surely new jersey could assume top 4 pick in the draft this year unless Hall goes supernova (they were a playoff team with Hall last year). Anyways if there is a conversation where Hall says im not signing i doubt it happens yet. But if it does, JP + 1st may be the best they can get and there are lottery considerations. Anyways, likely a summer move just tossing it out there.

  88. who says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I found that very interesting.

    For those who didn’t see it here it is:

    3. On the topic of Taylor Hall, there are a lot of people who want to know how many of the trades that Peter Chiarelli engineered were solely on him and which ones he received heavy influence on from within the organization. Chiarelli was on-board with the Hall trade or he would not have made it. But I believe there were at least 3 loud voices within the Oilers organization at the time that all wanted Hall out. However none of those 3 men, including the G.M. Chiarelli, are still with the Oilers today. Hall has just one more, full year remaining on his deal after this season. New jersey can’t afford to let him walk for nothing. Every team in the NHL should entertain acquiring…or re-acquiring him.

    Link: https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/the-front-runner-to-become-the-new-general-manager-of-the-edmonton-oilers-and-other-all-star-break-musings-9-things

    I find that interesting because that’s essentially what I heard…….

    So Chia, Tmac and who?

  89. flyfish1168 says:

    Bag of Pucks: Plus Bill never lets him stay comfortable even though he’s the GOAT. Lots of stories in that book how Bill still chews him out in practice and in the film room. Sets the tone for the whole team when even a first ballot Hall of Famer doesn’t get a pass for mental errors.

    ‘Just do your job’. Genius in its simplicity.

    One revealing story. They’re reviewing film in a teamwide meeting of Brady throwing a pick into triple coverage. Bellichick says, “WTF Brady, you threw a pass into their team meeting?” He then replays the clip over and over and over. Bellichick Might be a terrible human being. Phenomenal football coach however.

    That was a quite the story. How many other QB would take that type of abuse?

  90. Hairbag says:

    Material Elvis,

    OriginalPouzar,

    Yes I do agree that the last few years have been better. For me the biggest issue has been with how Jesse the individual has been handled. I agree that talent should overcome development at some point if there is consistent progress and handling of a player. What talent doesn’t overcome is a lack of confidence. With JP it seems like every time he gains a little confidence he gets the rug pulled out from under him. If he was/is expected to be a top 6 player then give him those reps consistently in the AHL for an extended period of time – as in months – 20+ min per game, PP, PK (he’s a horse, who can skate, has a long reach, etc) – let him do it all down there, including learning from his mistakes in an environment that is not the pressure cooker of Edmonton. I was torn when Hitchcock brought him up this last time because I thought maybe they had figured it out, but then thought well maybe Hitch is the Jesse Whisperer – turns out he is not and he should have stayed in the AHL where he could have learned to have success with the other kids who are his age….

  91. northerndancer says:

    Wilde: Ah, I forgot I didn’t add the part of the upcoming team-based post that detailed how I’ve been getting around problems like this and diversifying the sample.

    I deliberately space out the games I’m retroactively tracking, trying to keep the percentage of games tracked per month fairly even, while also spreading out the games among different opposition. One problem I did have is the game against the Gulls early in the year when Anaheim was crazy injured and took some of the best Gulls from them.

    That’s the balance I looked for except for Puljujärvi’s four games, all in a row in November, that I did because I was very curious. Ended up getting too many games against the Reign as a result, who suck.

    Here were the games tracked, vetted, and ready to go at the time of writing:

    October 20th, 27th

    November 16th, 17th, 20th, 23rd, 24th, 29th

    December 5th, 8th, 19th, 22nd, 31st

    January 5th, 8th, 19th

    Three against Stockton; three against Colorado; four against Ontario; one against San Jose, one against Manitoba, one against Tucson; one against San Diego; one against Texas.

    Wilde, thanks for the work that you do on these prospects and for “showing your work” both in explaining your assumptions and using the video clips. I like what you are teaching my old eyes about how you see the game.
    I also appreciate how clearly you explain what you are seeing and linking to the systems being used.
    It must take a lot of work and thank you for that.
    I feel well coached!

  92. Professor Q says:

    flyfish1168: That was a quite the story. How many other QB would take that type of abuse?

    Certainly not Bernie Kosar, unfortunately. I wasn’t really around back then, but people sometimes forget how Bill was like when he was with the Browns. Cut the heart of the Browns.

  93. Sierra says:

    who: SoChia, Tmac and who?

    Woodcroft?

  94. Glovjuice says:

    Jethro Tull: I was going through my collection the other day and found my first Stone Roses LP. Played it and now all Spotify is lining up nothing but Stone Roses and Happy Mondays. Something is listening to me.

    Good bands. Any bands that inspire a scene, a movement – an explosion of creativity to rival grunge are always cool. It’s how it is and will always be.

  95. Sierra says:

    Woodguy v2.0: They aren’t here because theyare not NHL difference makers today.

    If they were, they’d be here.

    Bear was a gong show last year and Jones had a steep decline after a great start.

    That’s cool.That’s what to expect from kids.

    They aren’t Actual NHL top 4 Dmen or Marody etc are not top 6 NHL players today.

    Those players have a track records saying they are actually that today.

    If those players turn into those things in two years then EDM becomes an “A” team like TBY etc because they have good young players in the bottom 6 and bottom pair and that’s great.

    Everyone knows that Sergarchev plays 3rd pair for TBY right?

    That’s what I’m talking about.

    Great stuff today.

    Are you sure you aren’t in the running for GM

  96. Glovjuice says:

    VanIsleOil: Well, this certainly got my attention, once you get by the tortured cat vocals, it is amazing….thanks Juice

    Cheers. Amazing album. But, yes, the black metal/screamo vocals are not for all and take some patience (unless you have lots of traditional black metal in your collection and are used to it).

  97. northerndancer says:

    I saw Leavins comments on McCrimmon as him taking the opportunity to talk up his old hockey days in west central Saskatchewan. Good for him. The McCrimmons were a legendary part of that area with the Rosetown Redwings, the Kindersley Clippers, the Biggar Nationals, Wilkie Outlaws and a few other teams floating in and out of a couple of leagues, like the Wild Goose.

    Rich small town rivalries. When Brad McCrimmon (or anyone else from the area, such as Randy Ireland from Kingsland, a somewhat fictitious community consisting of a 1 sheet curling rink and a ball diamond halfway between Rosetown and Biggar) made the NHL it was validation for the caliber of the players in all the small towns in the area. One of their own making it.

    I do have to quibble with Leavins sense that Kelly McCrimmon would, by virtue of his heritage, fit into the Oiler culture. Showing up with a case of Pil, Canadian or Black Label would not likely go over well at a Red Wine summit.

  98. Material Elvis says:

    Hairbag:
    Material Elvis,

    OriginalPouzar,

    I was torn when Hitchcock brought him up this last time because I thought maybe they had figured it out, but then thought well maybe Hitch is the Jesse Whisperer – turns out he is not and he should have stayed in the AHL where he could have learned to have success with the other kids who are his age….

    I didn’t agree with the recall after four games, either. How the hell can anyone consider that to be sufficient development time? But Hitchcock claimed that he could develop JP in the NHL and requested the recall. It’s a blow to his credibility if you ask me.

  99. flyfish1168 says:

    Professor Q: Certainly not Bernie Kosar, unfortunately. I wasn’t really around back then, but people sometimes forget how Bill was like when he was with the Browns. Cut the heart of the Browns.

    Bernie had a weak arm. I was thinking of Testaverde or Tomzack both also highly praised QB with good arms

  100. who says:

    Woodguy v2.0: They aren’t here because theyare not NHL difference makers today.

    If they were, they’d be here.

    Bear was a gong show last year and Jones had a steep decline after a great start.

    That’s cool.That’s what to expect from kids.

    They aren’t Actual NHL top 4 Dmen or Marody etc are not top 6 NHL players today.

    Those players have a track records saying they are actually that today.

    If those players turn into those things in two years then EDM becomes an “A” team like TBY etc because they have good young players in the bottom 6 and bottom pair and that’s great.

    Everyone knows that Sergarchev plays 3rd pair for TBY right?

    That’s what I’m talking about.

    Okay. Give me an example of who you would trade for, what you would give up, and how you would make the cap work.
    Don’t get me wrong. I like a guy like Ehlers.
    In fact 3 years ago I was advocating for a Hall plus Davidson trade for Myers and Ehlers. Most posters here said that wasn’t enough for Hall. I said I doubt Winnipeg would make the trade.

  101. Bling says:

    Stauffer put McCrimmon at number one on his list, which probably means he is the de facto #1 candidate. The CoH piece confirms it.

    McCrimmon would be okay, but there was a large element of luck and organizational stupidity that went into making the Golden Knights what they are today.

    Florida gifted them two top six wingers. William Karlsson turned into a premier NHL centre. Nate Schmidt is a legit top paring D who only became one after donning Vegas threads. There were a lot of teams who decided they didn’t need Brandon Pirri, including your Edmonton Oilers. And so on.

    If they are going with McCrimmon, I’d prefer they add on a new school person with a firm understanding of analytics and cap management, maybe a guy like Dellow. A McCrimmon/Dellow management team would look pretty cool.

  102. Ryan says:

    who: Okay. Give me an example of who you would trade for, what you would give up, and how you would make the cap work.
    Don’t get me wrong. I like a guy like Ehlers.
    In fact 3 years ago I was advocating for a Hall plus Davidson trade for Myers and Ehlers. Most posters here said that wasn’t enough for Hall. I said I doubt Winnipeg would make the trade.

    JP and 2019 1st for Ehlers.

    Buyout: Sekera and Spooner. There’s 5m in cap space plus whatever JP would cost.

    In the NHL, the middle class is dying off.

  103. Glovjuice says:

    OriginalPouzar: The fact that Kailer has even played an NHL game means he’s exceeded his reasonable draft day development at this point.

    A rookie pro in his draft plus 2 season a bust – geeez.

    He just turned pro and has been effed around by the organization for his career just as much as JP – up and down and up and down.

    But, he only has played that game due to organizational incompetence though. He should have played zero so far. You can be very challenging.

  104. jtblack says:

    DRAFT RANDOM:

    BYRAM had a slow start; 5 pts in 1st 10 Games.

    Since then:

    36 gms 16 G 25 A 41 PTS

    TOTAL; 18 G 26 A 44 PTS

    For reference PROVOROV had 16 Goals in 60 Games (61 Points) in draft year. He went #7 in the McDavid Draft

  105. Bling says:

    On Hall versus Ehlers:

    Why not suffer one more year with a stop gap on the wing and then open up the vault for Hall? Russell and Sekera out is already 9.5 million in cap space (assuming Sekera isn’t injured — shudder). Eating 4 million in a Lucic trade gives you another 2 million in cap space.

    By then, the cap hits to Spooner and Manning will also be off the books.

    I think this off-season should be about getting the books in order for a big UFA splash in 2020.

  106. OriginalPouzar says:

    Yamamoto was drafted 22nd overall.

    The players drafted in the following spots have played zero NHL games – 23, 25, 26, 27, 28, 31-40, 42-46, etc.

    The fact that Yamamoto is in the AHL or hasn’t “made it” as a sign he’s trending towards being a bust or was the wrong pick is so unreasonable to me.

  107. Bling says:

    Ryan: JP and 2019 1st for Ehlers.

    Buyout: Sekera and Spooner. There’s 5m in cap space plus whatever JP would cost.

    In the NHL, the middle class is dying off.

    Just a hunch, but I think the cost will be higher. JP’s value can’t be that high right now.

    A young 30 goal scorer with a 6 million cap hit is gold in today’s NHL.

  108. Professor Q says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Yamamoto was drafted 22nd overall.

    The players drafted in the following spots have played zero NHL games – 23, 25, 26, 27, 28, 31-40, 42-46, etc.

    The fact that Yamamoto is in the AHL or hasn’t “made it” as a sign he’s trending towards being a bust or was the wrong pick is so unreasonable to me.

    He’s not a 60 point producer at 20 years of age, thus is a complete bust.

    How long did it take St. Louis and Johnson?

  109. jtblack says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Yamamoto was drafted 22nd overall.

    The players drafted in the following spots have played zero NHL games – 23, 25, 26, 27, 28, 31-40, 42-46, etc.

    The fact that Yamamoto is in the AHL or hasn’t “made it” as a sign he’s trending towards being a bust or was the wrong pick is so unreasonable to me.

    +1

  110. Ryan says:

    Bling: Just a hunch, but I think the cost will be higher. JP’s value can’t be that high right now.

    A young 30 goal scorer with a 6 million cap hit is gold in today’s NHL.

    True, but the Jets would only be trading Ehlers to shed cap hit. They don’t want salary back.

    They also like Carolina might be a team that would think they can unlock JP.

  111. Professor Q says:

    Bling:
    On Hall versus Ehlers:

    Why not suffer one more year with a stop gap on the wing and then open up the vault for Hall? Russell and Sekera out is already 9.5 million in cap space (assuming Sekera isn’t injured — shudder). Eating 4 million in a Lucic trade gives you another 2 million in cap space.

    By then, the cap hits to Spooner and Manning will also be off the books.

    I think this off-season should be about getting the books in order for a big UFA splash in 2020.

    The Return of the Prodigal Son, and a Cup victory for the Oilers.

    I’d be down for that.

  112. jtblack says:

    Bling,

    “and then open up the vault for Hall? ”

    PC, is that you?

    How many $$8.5 Million + players can you have? Hall will get over $10 mil per ….

  113. Pescador says:

    northerndancer:
    I saw Leavins comments on McCrimmon as him taking the opportunity to talk up his old hockey days in west central Saskatchewan.Good for him.The McCrimmons were a legendary part of that area with the Rosetown Redwings, the Kindersley Clippers, the Biggar Nationals, Wilkie Outlaws and a few other teams floating in and out of a couple of leagues, like the Wild Goose.

    Rich small town rivalries.When Brad McCrimmon (or anyone else from the area, such as Randy Ireland from Kingsland, a somewhat fictitious community consisting of a 1 sheet curling rink and a ball diamond halfway between Rosetown and Biggar) made the NHL it was validation for the caliber of the players in all the small towns in the area.One of their own making it.

    I do have to quibble with Leavins sense that Kelly McCrimmon would, by virtue of his heritage, fit into the Oiler culture.Showing up with a case of Pil, Canadian or Black Label would not likely go over well at a Red Wine summit.

    West Central, salt of earth people live there,
    If you’ve only ever lived in a city & you say “closely knit community”
    It’s not the same thing.
    Only 2 things to do for fun in those small towns fight & play hockey.
    “case of Pil”
    Otherwise known as Saskatchewan champagne

  114. Bling says:

    jtblack:
    Bling,

    “and then open up the vault for Hall? ”

    PC, is that you?

    How many $$8.5 Million + players can you have?Hall will get over $10 mil per ….

    Go ask Dubas and the Leafs. Or how about Rutherford and the Penguins?

    Hall at 10 is just fine so long as the bottom of the roster is built on the cheap.

  115. northerndancer says:

    Pescador: West Central, salt of earth people live there,
    If you’ve only ever lived in a city & you say “closely knit community”
    It’s not the same thing.
    Only 2 things to do for fun in those small towns fight & play hockey.
    “case of Pil”
    Otherwise known as Saskatchewan champagne

    Salt of the earth literally. Palo salt mine, home of sifto salt.(not quite ‘sacred’ himalayan salt crystals).
    Some of the best and worst of small coummunities. Beer bottle thrown at players. Fights in the stands. Ah the good times (not).
    Good places to be from.

    Did you grow up there?

  116. Bling says:

    Ryan: True, but the Jets would only be trading Ehlers to shed cap hit. They don’t want salary back.

    They also like Carolina might be a team that would think they can unlock JP.

    True, but that doesn’t mean they won’t ask for for more in the way of picks/prospects.

    We need that young pipeline of talent to populate the roster and deliver value.

    I didn’t see the Leafs put a dent in their farm system to fill out their roster. Hall could be our version of the Tavares signing.

  117. FabioRoberto says:

    Allan, I am a big fan of the big Finn. I believe he has been handled, as you say, very poorly up to this point. I completely agree that he needs to to play upwards of 20 min a night with one of the top 2 lines in order to properly evaluate where he is at. You said that a deal with the Jets might be in the cards for Ehlers? I would only deal Yamamoto and not JP. Winnipeg would play him with Laine and he would be lights out!!!

  118. jtblack says:

    Bling: Go ask Dubas and the Leafs. Or how about Rutherford and the Penguins?

    Hall at 10 is just fine so long as the bottom of the roster is built on the cheap.

    What am I asking them? How many $8.5+ Mil players they can sign?

    Dubas has 1.

    Pitt has 2.

  119. OriginalPouzar says:

    who: I hear what you are saying, but how do we know that those missing 2 players aren’t in the system right now?
    Jones or Bouchard? JP or Yamamoto?
    If a couple of these guys pop in the next 2 years we are there.
    If we add Ehlers where do we find 6 million?
    If we add Parayko where do we find 5 million?
    Until some salary comes off the cap we can’t afford a proven upgrade right now. But we will be able to add some salary by the fall of 2020.
    I don’t think that is too long to wait. My fear is trying to force a shorter timeline results in 4 more lost years

    This is my thought-process on this as well.

    We can try and dispose of some cap in the interim, Russell or Sekera, Manning, Spooner (if they won’t give him a shot) etc., however, we likely won’t be in a position to make material acquisitions for the 2019/20 season and maybe not for one more after that. Trying to “hurry it up” is risky and could lengthen the cap issue.

    Try and dispose of some cap in the interim but don’t pay to do it. Don’t buy out any contract but bury in the AHL if required (and save $1,075,000).

  120. FabioRoberto says:

    Material Elvis,
    I would do that in heartbeat!!

  121. Glovjuice says:

    theDjdj: Well this is a post I never expected on this blog. Deafheaven are terrific. I hope to catch them playing in Sydney next week.

    You lucky person you. Enjoy.

  122. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: They aren’t here because theyare not NHL difference makers today.

    If they were, they’d be here.

    Bear was a gong show last year and Jones had a steep decline after a great start.

    That’s cool.That’s what to expect from kids.

    They aren’t Actual NHL top 4 Dmen or Marody etc are not top 6 NHL players today.

    Those players have a track records saying they are actually that today.

    If those players turn into those things in two years then EDM becomes an “A” team like TBY etc because they have good young players in the bottom 6 and bottom pair and that’s great.

    Everyone knows that Sergarchev plays 3rd pair for TBY right?

    That’s what I’m talking about.

    Bear was a tire fire last year but he’ll have all of this year in the AHL (and his game is coming around) and we can see where he is at next year. Maybe NHL ready but, you are right, not above the 3rd pairing.

    Yup, Caleb Jones had a steep decline – playing top 4 minutes, tough minutes. I imagine if he was on the 3rd pairing, like Sergachev, he may just excell, in particular of paired with Sekera or Russell (even if Jones has to play his offside).

    As an aside, Sergachev plays 20 seconds less per game at 5 on 5 than Hedman – 90 seconds less than Stralman, who leads the team in TOI/G.

    No, we can’t count on any current prospect above the 3rd line or 3rd pairing for next year – I agree with that.

    At the same time:

    Klefbom/Larsson
    Nurse/Sekera (not enthused about him on his off-side mind you)
    Jones/Russell

    (Jones/Persson/Bear/Lagesson)

  123. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ryan:

    Buying out Spooner would be egregious – to add a dead cap hit of $1.3M in 2020/21 would be an example of trying to expedite the process and hurting the future.

    If need be, bury him in the AHL, ya, we save $1,075,00 instead of $2.3M next season but then we don’t have the dead cap hit the following year.

    Lets give Sekera a chance to play some hockey before we go buying out our once steadiest and, arguably, best d-man for massive dead cap hits.

  124. JimmyV1965 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Ehlers:

    – produces at a top 6 rate
    -is a positive RelTeam GF% and CF%
    -is signed for $6MM for 6 more years
    -Turns 23 in February

    That’s worth waaaay more than the 10th in 2019.

    EDM would have to add JP and maybe more to get him

    I would do it too.

    The RFA compensation rules for someone making $6 mill + is 1st, 2nd and 3rd. I assume the asking price for Ehlers starts there.

  125. OriginalPouzar says:

    Glovjuice: But, he only has played that game due to organizational incompetence though. He should have played zero so far.You can be very challenging.

    I agree he should have played zero – never said anything else.

    My point is, zero is the reasonable expectation for a 22nd overall pick as a 20 year old rookie pro.

    I was using the fact that out of the next 30 picks right after him there have been almost no games played.

  126. OriginalPouzar says:

    Professor Q: He’s not a 60 point producer at 20 years of age, thus is a complete bust.

    How long did it take St. Louis and Johnson?

    St. Louis was about 5 years away from making an NHL impact at age 20. Maybe even more. Although he’s got bigger legs….

  127. Glovjuice says:

    OriginalPouzar: St. Louis was about 5 years away from making an NHL impact at age 20.Maybe even more.Although he’s got bigger legs….

    And a HHOF probably.

  128. Professor Q says:

    OriginalPouzar: St. Louis was about 5 years away from making an NHL impact at age 20.Maybe even more.Although he’s got bigger legs….

    Exactly. Tyler Johnson is 28, and while he took fewer years to impact than St. Louis, he still needed 4 full WHL years and 2 AHL years, with some NHL time.

    Not every player can storm into the league like Gaudreau (after he finished his 3 NCAA years) or Kane. Even Fleury had an extra WHL year, and an IHL year.

    Patience may suck but hopefully it pays off better than rash decisions.

  129. godot10 says:

    jtblack:
    workaroundaccount,

    ” Last week they put in 10 plays leaving the hotel.”

    Source?

    Profootballtalk.com, Football Morning in America, by Peter King Jan 21
    https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/01/21/nfl-championship-rams-saints-patriots-chiefs-fmia-peter-king/

  130. flyfish1168 says:

    godot10: Profootballtalk.com, Football Morning in America, by Peter King Jan 21
    https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/01/21/nfl-championship-rams-saints-patriots-chiefs-fmia-peter-king/

    that is amazing stats for Brady being in his 40’s. He is the GOAT

  131. OmJo says:

    Ryan: 2011: Jets take Scheifele at 7 vs Nugent-Hopkins #1. Jets draft from behind us and get the better player. Luck? Keep reading.

    2012: Yikes. Oilers draft Yakupov at #1 OV. The Jets take trouba at 9 (9th on Mckenzie’s list)

    2013: The Jets draft Morrissey at #13 (28th on Mckenzie’s list) vs Nurse at 7th. Absolute home run for the jets. I’ll let Woodguy weigh in on who he likes better.

    Gonna be devils advocate. By no means am I trying to downplay the Jets drafting. And I’ve beaten this dead horse many times, but get the Korpse ready for another paddling…

    Scheifele played 47 and then 45 OHL games after being drafted. He wasn’t a full-time NHLer until the 13-14 season.
    Nugent-Hopkins was drafted by the Oilers 1st overall and scored a hat trick in his 3rd NHL. His fate was sealed and he was rushed into the NHL.

    Trouba played 37 games with Michigan after being drafted.
    Yakupov got Dallas Eakins’d to oblivion after leading NHL rookies in scoring and the Oilers in goals in his rookie season.

    Morrissey played a total of 106 OHL games (over three seasons) and 65 AHL games before becoming a full-time NHL player.
    Nurse played 100 OHL games and a whopping 13 AHL games before becoming a full-time NHLer.

    Had the Jets drafted Nugent-Hopkins, Yakupov and Nurse I wouldn’t be surprised if you wrote the same exact post with the names switched.

  132. who says:

    Bling:
    On Hall versus Ehlers:

    Why not suffer one more year with a stop gap on the wing and then open up the vault for Hall? Russell and Sekera out is already 9.5 million in cap space (assuming Sekera isn’t injured — shudder). Eating 4 million in a Lucic trade gives you another 2 million in cap space.

    By then, the cap hits to Spooner and Manning will also be off the books.

    I think this off-season should be about getting the books in order for a big UFA splash in 2020.

    I agree. Although not a big fan of making a big UFA splash. 90 percent of those signings seem to end up as bad contracts.

  133. Pescador says:

    northerndancer: Salt of the earth literally.Palo salt mine, home of sifto salt.(not quite ‘sacred’ himalayan salt crystals).
    Some of the best and worst of small coummunities.Beer bottle thrown at players.Fights in the stands.Ah the good times (not).
    Good places to be from.

    Did you grow up there?

    No,
    “Good places to be from”
    Wife (Rosetown)
    Mom (Kindersley)
    I recognize the tribulations, I also respect the virtues.
    But, I would say better places to visit

  134. who says:

    jtblack: What am I asking them?How many $8.5+ Mil players they can sign?

    Dubas has 1.

    Pitt has 2.

    Dubas will have 3 next fall.
    Or he will have egg all over his face.

  135. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Woodguy v2.0: They will have room in 20/21.

    He will already have made over $50MM in his career by that time to he *might* not hold feet to the fire for dollars if he’s going where he wants to go.

    Late reply but on the Spittin’ Chicklets podcast Taylor talks about how if he hasn’t won the Cup by his next contract, he’ll go wherever he has his best chance to win. Said he’s already made his money.

    “So you’re saying there’s a chance!!”

  136. who says:

    OriginalPouzar: Buying out Spooner would be egregious – to add a dead cap hit of $1.3M in 2020/21 would be an example of trying to expedite the process and hurting the future.

    If need be, bury him in the AHL, ya, we save $1,075,00 instead of $2.3M next season but then we don’t have the dead cap hit the following year.

    Lets give Sekera a chance to play some hockey before we go buying out our once steadiest and, arguably, best d-man for massive dead cap hits.

    I think we should clarify. Burying Spooner in the minors is only a cap savings of $400,000ish?
    Assuming his replacement costs league minimum.

  137. Pescador says:

    Bling: Go ask Dubas and the Leafs. Or how about Rutherford and the Penguins?

    Hall at 10 is just fine so long as the bottom of the roster is built on the cheap.

    Nah, overpay for your bottom 6
    But make sure they lose the the goal share,
    It’s the Oiler way

  138. Pescador says:

    JimmyV1965: The RFA compensation rules for someone making $6 mill + is 1st, 2nd and 3rd. I assume the asking price for Ehlers starts there.

    I would prefer a first & a good AHL prospect,
    Oilers have both to offer.
    2020 is more preferable

  139. YKOil says:

    jtblack: What am I asking them?How many $8.5+ Mil players they can sign?

    Dubas has 1.

    Pitt has 2.

    PITT has/had the benefit of lucky timing and Crosby’s 87 idiosyncrasy.

    TO is about to have 3 10+ with a 4th player making 7; they will be shedding contracts in a grand way.

  140. oilersfan says:

    All this talk about Ehlers is I think a bit crazy.

    If I were the GM of Winnipeg I keep Ehlers and deal with the cap issues by trying to trade Little, Perrault, Kulikov or somebody older and less central to the core that will be a perennial contender for years.

  141. JimmyV1965 says:

    Bling: Go ask Dubas and the Leafs. Or how about Rutherford and the Penguins?

    Hall at 10 is just fine so long as the bottom of the roster is built on the cheap.

    High price UFAs are death. We should know that by now. It’s simply not worth the risk. Ehlers at his age and contract is a much better value than Hall.

  142. JimmyV1965 says:

    The Jets cap issues next year are real and spectacular. Maybe they do decide to keep Ehlers. His contract looks really good. I do think they will have to part ways with one of their good young players next year. Little has an NMC next year, but maybe they move Perreault or Kulikov. They have limited NTCs.

    Their cap hit next year is 56.4 mill. That leaves them about $24 mill to sign:

    Laine
    Connor
    Tanev
    Lemieux
    Copp
    Petan
    Trouba
    Myers
    Chiarot
    Morrow
    Broisseault

    Signing Laine, Connor and Trouba will take them pretty close to the cap limit. That leaves their entire third line outside looking in, arguably the best third line in the NHL. Losing Myers seems almost inevitable. Do they trade Trouba? Maybe they move Laine instead.

  143. OriginalPouzar says:

    Glovjuice: And a HHOF probably.

    Thank you, again, for helping to prove the point.

    At “Yamamot’s age”, St. Louis would:

    – play another full season at college
    – wouldn’t score more than 18 points in an NHL season for 5 more years.

    He established himself as an NHL player at the age of 25 and broke out with 70 points at the age of 27.

    At 20 years old, this guy was years and years away from making an impact at the NHL level and became a Hall of Famer.

    Yet we know what we have in Yamamoto?

  144. OriginalPouzar says:

    Professor Q: Exactly. Tyler Johnson is 28, and while he took fewer years to impact than St. Louis, he still needed 4 full WHL years and 2 AHL years, with some NHL time.

    Not every player can storm into the league like Gaudreau (after he finished his 3 NCAA years) or Kane. Even Fleury had an extra WHL year, and an IHL year.

    Patience may suck but hopefully it pays off better than rash decisions.

    Even Gaudreau was still in college at Yamamoto’s age – it would be next season that he “stromed in to the league”.

  145. OriginalPouzar says:

    who: I think we should clarify. Burying Spooner in the minors is only a cap savings of $400,000ish?
    Assuming his replacement costs league minimum.

    Well, yes, if you want to factor in the replacement player which, to be fair, would need to be done if Spooner is bought out as well.

  146. OriginalPouzar says:

    If the Jets are to trade Ehlers, a main reason, the primary reason, would be due to cap constraints.

    Seems a little out there to suggest that a team that is among the most cap constrained in the league would be in the running to acquire this player and send out little cap in the acquisition cost.

  147. drglen says:

    Might as well play JP with connor, or freely split with Nuge’s line. There is also the Kassian option.

    I’ve turned with Yamamoto. Be willing to trade if deal seemed favorable. Hold on to JP.

    Who was that big Russian defenseman the oilers kept in the minors a few years ago, even though he was being paid millions? Same for Spooner. Eat your mistake and free a lineup spot for someone else.

    I would like to see Benson have a look.

    People talking about Ehlers. Price would be too high.. Jets know his value.

    Next year, the D is an interesting issue. Please don’t move out Bear until we have a look. Seems Gravel might go, or perhaps a team would look at russell. I also think that Larson, actually, might be getting some calls.

  148. Glovjuice says:

    OriginalPouzar: Thank you, again, for helping to prove the point.

    At “Yamamot’s age”, St. Louis would:

    – play another full season at college
    – wouldn’t score more than 18 points in an NHL season for 5 more years.

    He established himself as an NHL player at the age of 25 and broke out with 70 points at the age of 27.

    At 20 years old, this guy was years and years away from making an impact at the NHL level and became a Hall of Famer.

    Yet we know what we have in Yamamoto?

    draft position – simple – can’t wait 5-7 years for a 22 overall. If a 22 hasn’t made it by 22 then he probably won’t.

  149. OriginalPouzar says:

    The fact that he was drafted 22nd overall doesn’t change the fact that players develop at different speeds with different curves.

    To state that a 20 year old rookie pro is trending towards a bust because he hasn’t made it yet is really a perfect example of unreasonable expectations that Oiler fans have for their prospects.

    Reasonable expectation is for this player to need his draft plus 2 year (and maybe his draft plus 3) in the AHL for development purposes – the organization hasn’t really given him the proper opportunity, yet again, and has heightened expectations by giving him NHL time.

    Oilers fans always talk about being patient and letting their prospects develop, however, when the time comes, they react negatively at the first developmental blip.

    How can a fanbase preach patience and development and then call a rookie pro a bust candidate at 20.

  150. Professor Q says:

    Glovjuice: draft position – simple – can’t wait 5-7 years for a 22 overall. If a 22 hasn’t made it by 22 then he probably won’t.

    What about the Sedin Twins? 2nd and 3rd Overall and they took a while. Still not worth it?

  151. OriginalPouzar says:

    What about the hoards of top 22 picks that haven’t “made it” as rookie professionals – you know the majority outside the top 10?

  152. russ99 says:

    Two things I disagree with:

    1. Giving Jesse a push with McDavid

    What if he doesn’t produce with McDavid other than tertiary assists, etc. His instincts in the offensive zone are his biggest weakness, would we really want to torpedo his trade value if he can’t put up crooked numbers being pushed?

    If we want to sell him as a prospect, wouldn’t lighting things up in Bakersfield work a whole lot better?

    2. The idea that the Oilers could have excelled had Chia kept all the forwards.

    I don’t see any defensive addition that moves the needle that could be made with Hall, RNH and Eberle at $6M and Connor and Leon at their current contracts. So we’re looking at 270-300 goals against each of those years, which is a recipe for missing the playoffs or not going very far when we got there. It’s not a 8-6 win league anymore.

    IMO Chia’s run as GM has two eras, pre-playoffs and post-playoffs.

    I think he did at least average pre-playoffs with the caveat that we should have gotten more assets in the Hall trade and regardless of who we picked (not Barzal) going along with the old boy’s push of the Reinhart trade was awful. The Lucic signing turned out bad, but most of us loved it at the time.

    Post-playoffs he was horrid, hemorrhaging value, eating cap space, not replacing Eberle or Maroon and putting his faith in rushed kids, and 1994 birthdays, many of whom were gifted NHL ice time as a condition of signing, ruining their development and given RFA contracts they didn’t deserve, and thus traded for pennies on the dollar.

  153. Wilde says:

    northerndancer: .

    Wilde, thanks for the work that you do on these prospects and for “showing your work” both in explaining your assumptions and using the video clips. I like what you are teaching my old eyes about how you see the game.
    I also appreciate how clearly you explain what you are seeing and linking to the systems being used.
    It must take a lot of work and thank you for that.
    I feel well coached

    Just saw this, I really appreciate the support

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