Farm Workers (mid-season report) 2018-19

I’ve been writing these for years now, in October and April, with a mid-season update in recent years. To be honest, the early years of this decade were meh, but there’s a real buzz going on in Bakersfield last year (defense) and this year (forwards). I write 10 bullet points, review progress, and at the end I give you a list of names I’m picking to succeed (100 or more games). We’ll review that too, today, and project this year’s group.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton brought it yesterday, there’s a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group. Outstanding offer is here.

  • New Tyler Dellow: A deeper look at Connor McDavid and the Oilers’ 5-on-5 offensive changes under Ken Hitchcock
  • New Corey Pronman: 2019 NHL Draft midseason rankings
  • New Jonathan Willis: An Oilers blueprint for the 2019 NHL trade deadline.
  • Lowetide: Edmonton’s 2019 entry draft plans may change with new GM but needs are clear
  • Lowetide: Caleb Jones has impressive first showing in the NHL with Oilers.
  • DGB: Weighing the pros and cons of some top candidates for the Edmonton Oilers GM job.
  • Scott Burnside: Connor McDavid answered unwanted Oilers questions with poise and defiance, which is a good thing. (this is a terrific article).
  • Tyler Dellow: Four questions that the Oilers should be asking candidates for the GM job
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: New Oilers caretaker Keith Gretzky caught between earning playoff berth and keeping future assets
  • Lowetide: Bob Nicholson’s press conference attempts to set the tone for Oilers moving forward.
  • Craig Custance: How desirable is the Oilers GM opening and what questions are prospective candidates asking?
  • Jonathan Willis: With Peter Chiarelli gone, this is what the Oilers need to do next
  • Pierre Lebrun: Possible candidates to replace Peter Chiarelli as Oilers GM
  • Lowetide: Peter Chiarelli’s inability adjust, poor trades and free-agent misses at the centre of his firing.
  • Jonathan Willis: Rushed Mikko Koskinen deal was one Peter Chiarelli should not have been allowed to make.
  • Tyler Dellow: What can the NHL’s last three turtle derbies tell us about the playoff race in the West?
  • Lowetide: Oilers sign Mikko Koskinen long term, signalling the end of the line for Cam Talbot in Edmonton.
  • Lowetide: The Oilers’ way forward and the smartest route to finding an impact winger this summer.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Goalless Tobias Rieder hopes to follow Zack Kassian and Milan Lucic and end his offensive funk.
  • Lowetide: Complete Oilers top 20 prospects, Winter 2018

FUTURE NHLERS (FARM WORKERS EDITION)

It’s been a fun ride over many years, choosing ‘farm workers’ to emerge as NHL players and play 100 or more NHL games. Here are my picks by season, and NHL games played (players listed only once, in the first season I named them).

  • 2009-10: Devan Dubnyk (464).
  • 2010-11: Jeff Petry (578), Linus Omark (79), and Teemu Hartikainen (52).
  • 2011-12: Magnus Paajarvi (435) and Tyler Pitlick (181).
  • 2012-13: Anton Lander (215) and Martin Marincin (187).
  • 2013-14: Oscar Klefbom (286) and Mark Arcobello (139).
  • 2014-15: Iiro Pakarinen (134), Jordan Oesterle (121).
  • 2015-16: Griffin Reinhart (37), Jujhar Khaira (140) and Anton Slepyshev (102).
  • 2016-17: Jesse Puljujarvi (132) and Laurent Brossoit (41).
  • 2017-18: Ethan Bear (18), Ty Rattie (78)

Men who are over 30 and come out of the minors to establish (or re-establish) themselves are pretty much a thing of the past. 

  • Al Montoya turns 34 next month, it seems unlikely (he’s been out since mid-December with an illness) but he could technically return to the NHL if the club deals Cam Talbot. Brad Malone and Ryan Stanton (both 29) have NHL contracts and are in the recall window. All three men might see Europe as the next step option for their careers.

If a prospect can establish himself as an AHL regular age 20, it bodes well for an NHL career but does not guarantee it

  • Tyler Benson is 20 and playing a key role on the Condors. Kailer Yamamoto, Jesse Puljujarvi, Stuart Skinner and Dylan Wells are also 20 and have played for Bakersfield at times this year. Benson is the tenth real prospect since 2010 to play as a regular at 20 (Teemu Hartikainen, Tyler Pitlick, Magnus Paajarvi, Martin Marincin, Martin Gernat, Bogdan Yakimov, Jujhar Khaira, Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones) and we’ll see how many men have substantial careers. Paajarvi is over 400 games, he would have to be considered the most successful prospect among the group. I’m not counting Jesse Puljujarvi as an AHL player this year.

Pretty much everyone who is in the AHL past (say) 21 has some issues and is going to do some meandering

  • This is another strength of the AHL cluster. Cooper Marody, Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones and Cameron Hebig are 21, William Lagesson is 22. Not only are these men performing well in the minors, they have enough NHL experience to be in the recall window. If the Oilers make some trades at the deadline, these names will be flying north. Some may be traded in the coming days.
  • All of these players have something that keeps them from the NHL at this time, That means these kids have much in common with names from the past like Anton Slepyshev and Anton Lander. One hopes the current crop can overcome obstacles and emerge as productive NHL regulars for several years.

If you haven’t established yourself as a prospect of interest by 22 you are in troubleThe players who have graduated to useful NHL careers have at least played some NHL games by the end of their entry level deals. 

  • Players 22+ who are in some difficulty include Josh Currie and Patrick Russell, Keegan Lowe as well. Edmonton has fewer men in this category than at any time in memory. There are 10 names age 23 or over who are regulars and signed to an NHL deal. That number in 2014-15? 15.

Exceptions are college menPlaying 4 NCAA seasons means turning pro at 22, meaning a “late start” for some quality prospects. 

  • Lots of college men, including Cooper Marody who qualifies in several categories in our farm report. Also college: Joe Gambardella, Tyler Vesel, Shane Starrett. I think this is a promising group. Both Gambardella and Starrett are showing very well this season. Marody and Gambardella have played in NHL games in 2018-19.

A large group of players on the current team could be described in the “tweener” division.

  • The truth is that ‘tweeners’ are the biggest AHL category and point totals can fool you. Rob Schremp was a tweener, he scored 53 points in 69 AHL games at age 20 (Benson levels). Anton Lander was a tweener, Ty Rattie is a tweener and maybe Kailer Yamamoto will be a tweener. I don’t think he will, but this blog thought Teemu Hartikainen and Linus Omark would make it (still don’t know how they missed). Marc Pouliot qualified here, too. I swear he had the talent to play in the NHL.

If we make a list of the minor league RFA’s each summer, we can probably as a group pick the cuts and be fairly close. 

  • Oilers have very few RFA’s for 2019 summer, but will have to make decisions on Tyler Vesel, Joe Gambardella, Patrick Russell, Colin Larkin, Robin Norell, Joel Persson and Shane Starrett. I’ll pick Gambardella, Persson and Starrett as keepers.

Daniel Cleary, Fernando Pisani and Jason Chimera became productive players in the toughest league on the planet. THEY are the stars in this study.

  • This is important and it might offer us some advice on a player like Marody. As talented as he is (32 points in 32 games at age 21), he isn’t a bullet train. He might make it via his impressive passing and vision, but if that isn’t enough he may not be as well-suited to an NHL future as someone like Gambardella. The older player is a good forechecker, has plus speed and can learn to iron the wrinkles out of his defensive game. Marody probably spent most of his pre-AHL career being able to get the puck whenever he wanted, and the adjustment may take time. Most AHL grads don’t arrive in the NHL and apply for the scoring role on McDavid’s line (or Nuge, or Leon), but rather land alongside Strome or Brodziak. That’s the deal.

Pure offensive players can succeed after prolonged AHL time but it’s rarely with their drafting team.

  • This is my Marty Reasoner rule. Reasoner was a first-round pick who scored at will for Boston College and was too good for the AHL from the opening faceoff. Still, he shuttled between Worcester and St. Louis (and then Edmonton) before adding dimension to his game after Kevin Lowe waived him. He developed into a helluva player and mentor.

The future NHL players on tonight’s roster are:

  • The 2018 additions to the list above are Cooper Marody, Tyler Benson, Kailer Yamamoto and Caleb Jones. I think they’ll all play 100+ games. Of course, the real hope is one or more play 500.

OILERS NUMBERS 2018-19

  • Goals For: 141 (rank No. 21)
  • Goals Against: 163 (rank No. 23)
  • Goals For Percentage: 46.38 (rank No. 24)
  • Shots For Per 60: 28.55 (rank No. 26)
  • Shots Against Per 60: 30.83 (rank No. 17)
  • Fenwick 5-on-5: 48.23 (rank No. 23)
  • Corsi 5-on-5: 48.38 (rank No. 22)
  • Shooting Percentage: 9.8 (rank No. 14)
  • Save Percentage: 89.51 (rank No. 25)
  • PDO: 993 (rank No. 23)

All numbers NaturalStatTrick. This is not a playoff team based on the numbers.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fun, busy morning on the Lowdown, we hit the trail at 10, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Jonathan Willis, The Athletic. Jon’s first of two pieces on an ‘Oilers blueprint for the 2019 deadline’ is up, we’ll chart about the rational way forward.
  • Mike Zeisberger, NHL.com. The Toronto Maple Leafs acquired Jake Muzzin last night. How important was this move to the Leafs’ Cup hopes? Is there another shoe to drop?
  • Scott Wheeler, The Athletic. Toronto made their deal early and paid with three assets. Did they give up too much? Was it worth it anyway?
  • James Herbert, CBS Sports. The NBA trade deadline is February 7. Pelicans’ Anthony Davis won’t sign a contract extension and has requested a trade. Will that trade happen in the next 10 days?

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183 Responses to "Farm Workers (mid-season report) 2018-19"

  1. verite says:

    Rembmber prospects let you down
    Trade them asap
    All of them
    the present is only thing

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    To me, Tyler Benson’s season is more impressive that Marody’s (even though Marody has a higher PPG and “has the puck on his stick” more than Benson) due to the year age difference – that is material at this stage of development.

    What Benson has accomplished this year, not only as a rookie pro, but a 20 year old rookie pro, is very encouraging.

    He remains no sure bet but he’s trending well for an NHL career – bottom 6? middle 6? top 6?

    Lets not forget he’s got a really high skill level pedigree (was in the conversation for exceptional status).

    His skating is not a strong point but it has improved.

    His hand and brain are strong points.

  3. Lowetide says:

    verite:
    Rembmber prospects let you down
    Trade them asap
    All of them
    the present is only thing

    Most prospects don’t move the needle in a trade, though. Edmonton has enough depth to move a Bear or a Lagesson, not sure that buys much at this deadline. Maybe next.

  4. Munny says:

    The thing about Benson is he is missing nearly two years of development. I think this year is pretty impressive, considering.

  5. OilersFuture says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Hey OP, as you watch a lot of the AHL games. Are they also playing Benson & Marody on the PK as well?

  6. Ben says:

    verite:
    Rembmber prospects let you down
    Trade them asap
    All of them
    the present is only thing

    My favourite Evanescence lyrics.

  7. OriginalPouzar says:

    Its been great to see both Wells and Skinner get some AHL time as rookie pros – that is an organizational shift.

    I posit the organization values the two of them pretty closely as they’ve both been given time and Wells was replaced by Skinner notwithstanding playing well in his couple of games.

    Long ways to go on these two goalies.

    Shane Starrett has been VERY good over the last month – his stats are great (I believe he’s up to 6th in the AHL in some traditional metrics) and I can advise from watching that his play matches the stats – solid play and some 5-bell saves nightly.

    I wonder if he’s an option for back-up next year? Given we still don’t know what we have in the starter, we probably need a more established back-up but Starrett should compete at camp.

  8. OriginalPouzar says:

    I’m less concerned about the d-men at the age of 21/22 than I am with forwards.

    We all know that d-men generally take longer to develop and Bear and Jones are in their second years of pro – that’s still pretty raw and, to me, they are on the proper development curve.

    Lagesson is in his first year of pro in North America and I believe he’s had a very solid season.

    I think each of Lagesson, Bear, Jones, Bouchard and Persson have a shot to prove they are NHL ready next year with Persson, Jones and Lagesson being the front runners.

    Of course, chances are this organization has Bouchard penciled in the lineup next October which would be sad given it looks like the organization finally has some depth to really allow a guy like Bouchard some real development time – to over-ripen as one has said.

  9. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – It’s a good list, and a cautionary tale when projecting that Kailer will be top-6 next year, Marody as 3C, Jones a 3rd line RHD, etc (although Jones with a vet on 3rd is reasonable projection IMO)

    – Magnus Paajarvi is the only prospect in the last 10 years that “made it”. He played 30-50 games a season for 5 or 6 years, and is just now a regular with limited offence at 27 years old

    – For sure an amazing accomplishment for Magnus, but doesn’t move the needle for his teams

    – Hope this crop is different, and maybe it will be, but LT’s awesome piece is the cold reality of how hard it is for AHL’ers to crack the NHL, nevermind significantly above replacement level…

  10. OriginalPouzar says:

    Obviously Persson is a lock to be re-signed.

    I think they will re-sign Joe G. and maybe P. Russell as well.

    Given his recent play, absolutely, Starrett should be re-signed and should be joined by Hayden Hawkeye. I think Starrett may have an outside shot at the NHL back-up job next season but would hope he is penciled in going in to camp and there is legit competition with a more established NHL goalie.

  11. Ben says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Hey man. You’re up to 4/10 posts so far, and about 90% of the comment section’s word count. Love your perspective, but maybe sparse it up a little? No biggie either way! 🙂

  12. Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR says:

    I hope they are patient with all these (and future) prospects. Over-ripen is the key. I probably won’t be popular for saying this, but it will likely be a 25 year-old McDavid leading this team to cup contention. He’ll be in year 5 of his contract, and be surrounded by some youth (Yamo, Kirill, Benson, Bouchard, etc.) with skill as opposed to now. And hopefully the system is full of prospects that can help with a couple of trades to load up for a run at Stanley. I don’t see how any potential new GM can do any better than this scenario as far as the timeline, and still sell himself on “sustainable success”.

  13. dustrock says:

    Ben:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Hey man. You’re up to 4/10 posts so far, and about 90% of the comment section’s word count. Love your perspective, but maybe sparse it up a little? No biggie either way!

    OP does reps of posts until failure

  14. DBO says:

    Forgot about Montoya. He is an easy call up once they move Talbot.

  15. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    dustrock: OP does reps of posts until failure

    – no , not max reps: OP’s new school: he’s all about HIILT (High Intensity Intervals on LT)

  16. OriginalPouzar says:

    OilersFuture:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Hey OP, as you watch a lot of the AHL games.Are they also playing Benson & Marody on the PK as well?

    Yes, both receive a bit of PK time but are behind the likes of Malone, Russell, etc. in that role.

  17. OriginalPouzar says:

    DBO:
    Forgot about Montoya. He is an easy call up once they move Talbot.

    He hasn’t played in months – I thought it was injury but LT mentions illness (I haven’t really seen any updates).

    When Talbot is traded for Burakovsky, we’ll need to get Copley back in the deal – Starrett needs to stay in the AHL to lead them to the playoffs and therein.

  18. Melman says:

    Is it just me or did the fans need the 10 day break as much as the players? I’ve really enjoyed my morning coffee this week.

  19. tileguy says:

    Slow morning, perhaps someone can introduce a contest to guess when Hitchcock will blend his starting lineup.
    I guess what I am asking is will he settle down and let the lines play out and get familiar with each other? If not what is his possible reason for doing this, he has had30 games now, he must have some idea who the pkayers are.

  20. GMB3 says:

    dustrock: OP does reps of posts until failure

    I actually lol’d.

    I thought Slepyshev was destined for a real career in the middle 6. Damn shame, he could wheel, carry the puck, and had a quick release.

  21. dustrock says:

    Melman:
    Is it just me or did the fans need the 10 day break as much as the players? I’ve really enjoyed my morning coffee this week.

    The break gave me some good perspective. I went to Hawaii last week. Was barely on twitter. Read LT every day but didn’t post.

    Realized I was spending a lot of time on twitter and getting into some negative conversations. Decided to stay off Twitter as of this morning. Feels good.

    I would suspect I’ve spent 10x as much time this season on LT, Twitter etc talking about the team than actually watching the games.

    Every year I care less about the NHL. If it wasn’t for this blog and my hockey pool, I’d probably stop paying attention to the NHL entirely.

    There’s a study which revealed sports fans typically get longer-lasting frustration and negative emotions from their team(s) losing than the pleasure and satisfaction of winning and that’s been my experience with the team.

    I’ve been able to get enough perspective that I just laughed when I saw Koskinen’s extension, whereas I would previously be bitching about it for months at a time.

    I’ll continue to come here daily for LT’s prose and poesy, as well as the comments and the discussion around all that is dreamt of in our philosophy, but I think I’ll only comment on the non-hockey issues, it leads to less frustration on my part.

  22. Jethro Tull says:

    verite:
    Rembmber prospects let you down
    Trade them asap
    All of them
    the present is only thing

    Remember every prospect is awesome
    Never, ever trade them
    Any of them
    Keep them until they drop out the system

  23. Jethro Tull says:

    Good teams don’t trade 1st round picks. Or prospects. Take THAT, Jake Muzzin.

  24. tileguy says:

    dustrock,

    Dustrock said “There’s a study which revealed sports fans typically get longer-lasting frustration and negative emotions from their team(s) losing than the pleasure and satisfaction of winning and that’s been my experience with the team.”

    Not true in my case, watching the team lose is a “meh” type of experience for me and I actually enjoy reading comments from people that are losing their minds. The playoffrun of 2016 still gives me lasting enjoyment when I think back of the viewing parties with family and friends. (I forgive you Kessler)

  25. godot10 says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Good teams don’t trade 1st round picks. Or prospects.Take THAT, Jake Muzzin.

    The Leafs are a potential contender, not 6 points from 31st.

    They didn’t trade their elite talent or high draft picks to fix their defence. They hired a good coach and managed their defensive liabilities, until they were a potential contender.

  26. McSorley33 says:

    GMB3,

    I actually lol’d.

    I thought Slepyshev was destined for a real career in the middle 6. Damn shame, he could wheel, carry the puck, and had a quick release.
    *****************************************************************************************************
    Same. Big player who could skate and had a great shot – though maybe not so accurate.

    We will never know, but curious if he would have had a different career arc with another
    organization.

    Edit: Pretty mundane numbers by Sleppy in the KHL though. 12 goals and 5 assists for 17 points in 48 games.

    Grigorenko leads with 44 points in 48 games.

  27. godot10 says:

    godot10: The Leafs are a potential contender, not 6 points from 31st.

    They didn’t trade their elite talent or high draft picksto fix their defence.They hired a good coach and managed their defensive liabilities, until they were a potential contender.

    And after next season, if they re-sign Muzzin to a 4 year $24 million dollar contract with a NMC, the inflation adjusted Russell contract, it will be a massive mistake.

  28. YKOil says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – no , not max reps: OP’s new school: he’s all about HIILT (High Intensity Intervals on LT)

    With MAXIMUM OPTIMISM loads.

    Wondering when he’ll hit his single rep max.

  29. Glass says:

    How do people around here feel about acquiring a 2RD? Pesce comes to mind. I feel like you could do a Nurse for Pesce deal (Carolina is loaded on the right side). Then that slides Russell to 2LD, leave him there until Jones/Lagesson take his spot.

    Alternatively, you could package Puljujarvi + 2nd 2019 + Bear or something and see if that gets it done.

    Last option is just waiting for Bouchard/Persson/Bear to develop which will likely take 2-3 years.

  30. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    godot10: And after next season, if they re-sign Muzzin to a 4 year $24 million dollar contract with a NMC, the inflation adjusted Russell contract, it will be a massive mistake.

    – It’s actually why the trade was perplexing somewhat (although mostly applauded):

    – Muzzin is a GTA boy, for sure in a year and half he would sign sign here: so your giving up a 1st and 2 2nd round prospects for a year and 30 games (2 playoffs) of Muzzin: not saying the price was wrong, just that it’s a lot, and for sure your all-in.

    – I’d slot Muzzin below Klef, Sek (healthy), Larsson, and probably Nurse (cap and age factored in) for next year and 30 games

  31. McSorley33 says:

    Now, say want you want about Nail Yakupov but he is 2nd on his team in goals scored and he
    has only dressed for 38 games.

    Someone in the NHL should take a chance on him as a reclamation project.

    Is there nobody that can teach the kid how to defend?

    Will be 26 next year and may be more receptive to listening to coaches.

    Nail is my Linus Omark.

    Staple Nail to McDavid he gets 30 goals a year.

  32. Jethro Tull says:

    godot10: The Leafs are a potential contender, not 6 points from 31st.

    They didn’t trade their elite talent or high draft picksto fix their defence.They hired a good coach and managed their defensive liabilities, until they were a potential contender.

    That’s what I said: The Leafs are a good team.

    If the Oilers make the playoffs, they could have a lower 1st rounder, then they should have traded it for help?

    It’s confusing. What I’m hearing from a lot of people is “the Oilers shouldn’t do anything unless I personally agree with it.” Then I’m seeing a lot of psuedo-impartiatility and vague justifications that because Good Team X did it this way, we should do it this way.

    The Oilers need to find their OWN way.

  33. Washingtron says:

    dustrock: The break gave me some good perspective.I went to Hawaii last week.Was barely on twitter.Read LT every day but didn’t post.

    There’s a study which revealed sports fans typically get longer-lasting frustration and negative emotions from their team(s) losing than the pleasure and satisfaction of winning and that’s been my experience with the team.

    This year I decided to only listen to LT and Bob after wins, as well as staying off LT and ON after losses. Or at least the comments sections. It’s made a marginal improvement in my quality of life.

  34. ArmchairGM says:

    Melman:
    Is it just me or did the fans need the 10 day break as much as the players? I’ve really enjoyed my morning coffee this week.

    Haha, I was thinking the same thing yesterday. Except I don’t drink coffee…

  35. YKOil says:

    McSorley33:
    GMB3,
    I actually lol’d.

    I thought Slepyshev was destined for a real career in the middle 6. Damn shame, he could wheel, carry the puck, and had a quick release.
    *****************************************************************************************************
    Same. Big player who could skate and had a great shot – though maybe not so accurate.

    We will never know, but curious if he would have had a different career arc with another
    organization.

    Edit: Pretty mundane numbers by Sleppy in the KHL though. 12 goals and 5 assists for 17points in 48 games. Grigorenko leads with 44 points in 48 games.

    Me as well, but again, a player whose:

    – first year over, straight from Russia, is 49 games AHL / 11 games NHL
    – second year 9 games AHL / 41 games NHL
    – third year 50 games NHL

    That second year the only quality RW was Eberle (and Draisaitl for the push). That second year was also the only year the defense was healthy.

    Third year the defense is a shambles and RW is a mish-mash of Draisaitl and a bunch of guys playing over their heads.

    Year four – don’t bother.

    Standard Oilers, kiss of death, development curve if you ask me.

  36. jtblack says:

    godot10: The Leafs are a potential contender, not 6 points from 31st.

    They didn’t trade their elite talent or high draft picksto fix their defence.They hired a good coach and managed their defensive liabilities, until they were a potential contender.

    +1

  37. jtblack says:

    godot10: And after next season, if they re-sign Muzzin to a 4 year $24 million dollar contract with a NMC, the inflation adjusted Russell contract, it will be a massive mistake.

    Muzzin is way better than Russell ever was. PC’s mistake was locking up Russell and not aiming higher. Muzzin is higher / better. Not sure if Toronto will re sign him. But they got him for 2 playoffs

  38. jtblack says:

    Pronman Draft rankings out. Not much has changed.

    “thus I could see a lot of value coming out of this top 15.”

    KEEP THE PICK! KEEP THE PICK! 🤓

  39. Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR says:

    Jethro Tull: CAPE

    Comparing the Leafs trading a first rounder with Edmonton trading a first rounder at this point in time is laughable! Toronto got to where they are by stockpiling picks and prospects and being patient. Now they are being rewarded with success. And they have enough young players/prospects that trading a first round pick in the 20’s is worth it, because Muzzin might put them over the hump. Edmonton trading a first rounder this year might help short-term, but we’re not even close to the cup. We need to try to get to a spot where that trade puts us over the hump, not over a barrel.

  40. Bruce McCurdy says:

    OriginalPouzar: To me, Tyler Benson’s season is more impressive that Marody’s (even though Marody has a higher PPG and “has the puck on his stick” more than Benson) due to the year age difference – that is material at this stage of development.

    What Benson has accomplished this year, not only as a rookie pro, but a 20 year old rookie pro, is very encouraging.

    Well, both are rookie pros but you are correct the age difference (you say a year, sites like Hockey-ref or DB say two, but correctly pegged at 15 months) is no small matter. I find myself becoming more bullish on young Benson by the month.

  41. Woogie63 says:

    Bob hold my beer

    Here are my specific picks for the new Oiler management team.

    Michelle Kennedy Président (Nash COO)
    Laurence Gilman GM (Van, TML)
    Keith Gretzky Assistant GM
    Garret Hohl Assistant GM (analytics, sports science, cap) (Founder of Hockeydata)
    Ray Ferraro Advisor to General Managers

    Darren Abbott VP Hockey operations (LAK)
    Bob Green Director of Amateur Scouting
    Jake Goldberg Director of Pro Scouting (VGK)
    Gary Roberts and Adam Oates Director of Player Development

    Coach Kirk Muller (MTL, STL, Car)

  42. Oilman99 says:

    dustrock: OP does reps of posts until failure

    I think it’s called OP overload.

  43. Jethro Tull says:

    Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR: Comparing the Leafs trading a first rounder with Edmonton trading a first rounder at this point in time is laughable!Toronto got to where they are by stockpiling picks and prospects and being patient.Now they are being rewarded with success.And they have enough young players/prospects that trading a first round pick in the 20’s is worth it, because Muzzin might put them over the hump.Edmonton trading a first rounder this year might help short-term, but we’re not even close to the cup.We need to try to get to a spot where that trade puts us over the hump, not over a barrel.

    Your whole premise is built on being able to draft, then develop properly. Which we can’t. We have to first get a forward thinking general manager that can actually be at the forefront of change, rather than desperately looking around the league at who’s currently good and doing a cheap imitation of them and if that fails, going back to what made you successful years ago.

    If we had a good draft and development team, then I would agree with you. If we had a team good enough to let the prospect mature in the minors, then I’d agree with you. Picks are only worth something to teams that are already good, that have the luxury of time to mature these young men and then shelter them when they come up to the big team.

    We’re not there yet. We first have to get the right GM. Then we have to become better than mediocre with astute signings, trades and hoping we get some value in the lower rounds in the drafts.

    I find it extremely blinkered thinking that we should do any one thing because somebody else did it and had success, or that it worked before.

    We have to get the process right before we can even think of results.

  44. Oilman99 says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Well, both are rookie pros but you are correct the age difference (you say a year, sites like Hockey-ref or DB say two, but correctly pegged at 15 months) is no small matter. I find myself becoming more bullish on young Benson by the month.

    Benson is more of a sure bet than Yamamoto at this stage. Yamamoto is fading fast due to the fact that he does not appear to quick enough, or solid enough on his skates to compete in the corners. Benson’s skill level is at a high enough level that he does not have to be the fastest guy on the ice. His passing ability is on a level with Dreisitel.

  45. Oilman99 says:

    jtblack: Muzzin is way better than Russell ever was. PC’s mistake was locking up Russell and not aiming higher. Muzzin is higher / better.Not sure if Toronto will re sign him.But they got him for 2 playoffs

    Toronto is heading for caphell at break neck speed. It is doubtful if they will have room for Muzzin when its time to reup.

  46. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Jethro Tull:

    We’re not there yet.We first have to get the right GM.Then we have to become better than mediocre with astute signings, trades and hoping we get some value in the lower rounds in the drafts.

    I find it extremely blinkered thinking that we should do any one thing because somebody else did it and had success, or that it worked before.

    We have to get the process right before we can even think of results.

    – This is a great post, because you highlight the two key things: process and GM

    – Getting a new GM who gets better results than Chia: we are all for

    – Based on the actions coming from the organization though I’m skeptical they believe the process needs to be fixed.

    – Now maybe Bob is just lying to the public, and actually knows what’s wrong with the water

    – But during the hiring process: if they call say Yzerrman, he’s going to be: “I think you guys need an overhaul of the organization, and I built a great one from the ground up”

    – And if it’s say McCrimmon, he is going to be: “I’m a hard worker, really grateful for the opportunity, and will work hard if you pick me, with the help of the smart people here already”

    – Guess which pitch the Oil would take?

    – And even if they were bold, and bought into someone saying build process from group up, I’m not convinced they have the people in the organization to filter through which potential GM’s could do this, and which couldn’t, non-Yzerman division, and they end up with a Dallas type-guy: not ready for the position, but a great seller

    – Whomever they pick as GM, we will know by the draft if the Oil are committed to a process and whether the GM yields power based on the personnel he keeps, and brings in.

    – But Oil way is OBC with votes in the room, and when it goes bad, collude to blame/fire the guy who doesn’t have the right Oil culture

  47. Oilman99 says:

    McSorley33:
    Now, say want you want about Nail Yakupov but he is 2nd on his team in goals scored and he
    has only dressed for 38 games.

    Someone in the NHL should take a chance on him as a reclamation project.

    Is there nobody that can teach the kid how to defend?

    Will be 26 next year and may be more receptive to listening to coaches.

    Nail is my Linus Omark.

    Staple Nailto McDavid he gets 30 goals a year.

    It’s called “hockey smarts”, and that can’t be taught.

  48. VanIsleOil says:

    Oilman99: Toronto is heading for caphell at break neck speed. It is doubtful if they will have room for Muzzin when its time to reup.

    But they get him for 2 playoff runs….excellent trade for Leafs in their cup runs this year and next. Probably won’t sign him after his deal is done

  49. Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR says:

    Jethro Tull: Your whole premise is built on being able to draft, then develop properly.Which we can’t.We have to first get a forward thinking general manager that can actually be at the forefront of change, rather than desperately looking around the league at who’s currently good and doing a cheap imitation of them and if that fails, going back to what made you successful years ago.

    If we had a good draft and development team, then I would agree with you.If we had a team good enough to let the prospect mature in the minors, then I’d agree with you.Picks are only worth something to teams that are already good, that have the luxury of time to mature these young men and then shelter them when they come up to the big team.

    We’re not there yet.We first have to get the right GM.Then we have to become better than mediocre with astute signings, trades and hoping we get some value in the lower rounds in the drafts.

    I find it extremely blinkered thinking that we should do any one thing because somebody else did it and had success, or that it worked before.

    We have to get the process right before we can even think of results.

    I agree with a lot of this, but I’m just saying you can’t use the Leafs trading their first as justification for Edmonton to do it. These franchises couldn’t be further apart when it comes to defining success this year. You’re bang on with our track record in this department, but shouldn’t the new GM be given a chance to go to the podium for that pick? It might be in the top 5 by the time this season is over. If we assume that all of the development shortcomings are going to continue under the new GM, than they might as well trade all the picks and prospects for help now. We don’t even need a farm team under this assumption.

    There’s tons of mess for the new GM to clean up here, I’m just willing to be patient if they get it right this time. It’s not gonna be a quick fix.

  50. dustrock says:

    Oilman99: Benson is more of a sure bet than Yamamoto at this stage. Yamamotois fading fast due to the fact that he does not appear to quick enough, or solid enough on his skates to compete in the corners. Benson’s skill level is at a high enough level that he does not have to be the fastest guy on the ice. His passing ability is on a level with Dreisitel.

    Yamamoto has to get in the headspace that he’s undrafted Tyler Johnson and he has to leave them no choice.

    Agreed he is very skilled but just can be pushed out too easily in the NHL. Not as gritty as Johnson, not nearly as quick and skilled as Gaudreau.

    He still could be a top 6 contributor but I’d guess he’s 2 years away and he needs to do some serious training and become a gym freak to make it.

  51. Munny says:

    Oilman99: Toronto is heading for caphell at break neck speed. It is doubtful if they will have room for Muzzin when its time to reup.

    Getting a $4M a year top pairing defenseman for the next two playoff runs is outstanding work for a capstrung team.

  52. Cassandra says:

    Yeah, that trade by Dubas is great. That is plain to anyone who isn’t blinded by the Leaf–Dubas hate duality.

  53. jtblack says:

    Munny: Getting a $4M a year top pairing defenseman for the next two playoff runs is outstanding work for a capstrung team.

    +1

  54. jtblack says:

    Oilman99: Toronto is heading for caphell at break neck speed. It is doubtful if they will have room for Muzzin when its time to reup.

    Not sure what that has to do with Muzzin Being a great add.

    Toronto is well aware of the future Cap issues

  55. jtblack says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    “I’d slot Muzzin below Klef, Sek (healthy), Larsson, and probably Nurse (cap and age factored in) for next year and 30 games”

    There would be many voices that would place Muzzin at the very top of this list.

  56. Jethro Tull says:

    Munny: Getting a $4M a year top pairing defenseman for the next two playoff runs is outstanding work for a capstrung team.

    What is “justification for the Hall trade?” Alex.

  57. Jethro Tull says:

    Oilman99: Toronto is heading for caphell at break neck speed. It is doubtful if they will have room for Muzzin when its time to reup.

    I’d rather be good and capstrung than just capstrung.

  58. Sunnyboy says:

    The Oil are not a playoff team this year and probably not next year either. The faint hope that results elsewhere can be replicated here are folly. The turnaround the NYI have had with new management and coaching while losing their franchise player is to be lusted for but this quickly turns sour. With our best player firmly on board, team results next season with a new GM and his coach in place can be compared to the Isles terrific surge upward this year. Because oilers I am not overly optimistic. Happy hunting Bob

  59. Hemsky is a gangsta says:

    Let’s offersheet Kasperi Kapanen.

  60. Material Elvis says:

    Cassandra:
    Yeah, that trade by Dubas is great. That is plain to anyone who isn’t blinded by the Leaf–Dubas hate duality.

    Dubas is smart. The Leafs are a good team. Fuck I hate them.

  61. JimmyV1965 says:

    Oilman99: Toronto is heading for caphell at break neck speed. It is doubtful if they will have room for Muzzin when its time to reup.

    Good teams find a way. I’m no Leaf fan, but I’m sure they will manage. Gardiner is gone next year. They can probably trade Marleau easy because he only has one left on his deal and he’s an actual NHL player. He does have a NTC though. The big thing for them is getting rid of Zaitsev.

  62. HT Joe says:

    Just now saw the new TSN article… https://www.tsn.ca/nicholson-new-gm-a-huge-hire-for-the-oilers-1.1248799. Money quote below from Burger Bob:

    “We’re not doing a rebuild. We’re doing a build,” Nicholson said. “There are good pieces in place, real good pieces.

    So, is Bob saying that you can’t rebuild the Oilers, with the implication that since they’ve never been built properly before, fixing them would technically just be called a [first time] build? I think that’s what he’s saying. Heh.
    🙂

  63. Professor Q says:

    I personally don’t really know much about Muzzin. Apparently he grew to be an All-Star level player overnight?

  64. pts2pndr says:

    Cassandra:
    Yeah, that trade by Dubas is great. That is plain to anyone who isn’t blinded by the Leaf–Dubas hate duality.

    I don’t believe that is why people don’t have any love for Toronto! It quite frankly the pretentious smug center of the universe attitude that everyone distains. It is why if Canada was in need of an enima most Canadians even those Ontario people outside the GTA would pick Toronto!

  65. RT26 says:

    Lucic (50% retained) + Talbot + 2020 3rd round pick to PHI for Jakub Voracek or Trevor Van Riemsdyke

  66. LMHF#1 says:

    Oilman99: Toronto is heading for caphell at break neck speed. It is doubtful if they will have room for Muzzin when its time to reup.

    It is amazing how Edmonton seems to be a bubble where no one understands that getting out of cap problems is actually rather simple and teams do it all the time in every sport.

  67. Dicky94 says:

    Hemsky is a gangsta,

    I think your going to see more of this in the next few years. Makes things exciting.

  68. Réal Goudenyéu says:

    Ben:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Hey man. You’re up to 4/10 posts so far, and about 90% of the comment section’s word count. Love your perspective, but maybe sparse it up a little? No biggie either way!

    It’s like a blogception…a blog within a blog…

  69. JimmyV1965 says:

    pts2pndr: I don’t believe that is why people don’t have any love for Toronto! It quite frankly the pretentious smug center of the universe attitude that everyone distains. It is why if Canada was in need of an enima most Canadians even those Ontario people outside the GTA would pick Toronto!

    Why on God’s green earth world the Flyers make this deal? It makes them much worse and they save some cap next year. And frankly, why would we want Voracek or JVR?

  70. who says:

    Oilman99: Toronto is heading for caphell at break neck speed. It is doubtful if they will have room for Muzzin when its time to reup.

    I don’t think they really care about re signing him. He is merely a placeholder until Dermott, Liligren and Sandin are ready for top 4 minutes.
    The Leafs actually have a succession plan.

  71. who says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – This is a great post, because you highlight the two key things: process and GM

    – Getting a new GM who gets better results than Chia: we are all for

    – Based on the actions coming from the organization thoughI’m skeptical they believe the process needs to be fixed.

    – Now maybe Bob is just lying to the public, and actually knows what’s wrong with the water

    – But during the hiring process: if they call say Yzerrman, he’s going to be: “I think you guys need an overhaul of the organization, and I built a great one from the ground up”

    – And if it’s say McCrimmon, heis going to be: “I’m a hard worker, really grateful for the opportunity, and will work hard if you pick me, with the help of the smart people here already”

    – Guess which pitch the Oil would take?

    – And even if they were bold, and bought into someone saying build process from group up, I’m not convinced theyhave the people in the organization to filter through which potential GM’s could do this, and which couldn’t, non-Yzerman division, and they end up with a Dallas type-guy: not ready for the position, but a great seller

    – Whomever they pick as GM, we will know by the draft if the Oil are committed to a process and whether the GM yields power based on the personnel he keeps, and brings in.

    – But Oil way is OBC with votes in the room, and when it goes bad, collude to blame/fire the guy who doesn’t have the right Oil culture

    Why don’t we just wait and see who they hire, and what he does, before we start spreading the doom and gloom.
    Is that too upbeat for this site?

  72. BONE207 says:

    McSorley33:

    Staple Nailto McDavid he gets 30 goals a year.

    One for each bee!!!

  73. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ben:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Hey man. You’re up to 4/10 posts so far, and about 90% of the comment section’s word count. Love your perspective, but maybe sparse it up a little? No biggie either way!

    Why does it matter?

    I read the blog and, while reading, if there is something I want to comment on it, I do. I then continue reading.

    Not sure why you care who makes the posts.

    Feel free to ignore them all if you wish (need).

    Of course, if the quantity is annoying the community generally, I can stop.

  74. OriginalPouzar says:

    Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR:
    I hope they are patient with all these (and future) prospects.Over-ripen is the key.I probably won’t be popular for saying this, but it will likely be a 25 year-old McDavid leading this team to cup contention.He’ll be in year 5 of his contract, and be surrounded by some youth (Yamo, Kirill, Benson, Bouchard, etc.) with skill as opposed to now.And hopefully the system is full of prospects that can help with a couple of trades to load up for a run at Stanley.I don’t see how any potential new GM can do any better than this scenario as far as the timeline, and still sell himself on “sustainable success”.

    Yup, when all the anchor contracts (except Lucic) expire within the next two years, cap hell will be alleviated and I think the team can improve VERY quickly – in addition to the cap space, they’ll have JP and Yamamoto as 22 year olds (hopefully at least one has developed), Bouchard probably ready to make a material impact, McDavid, Drai, Nurse just entering their primes and a bundle of prospects that are NHL ready (or very close thereto) to provide value contracts as well as depth and injury cover.

  75. OriginalPouzar says:

    tileguy:
    Slow morning, perhaps someone can introduce a contest to guess when Hitchcock will blend his starting lineup.I guess what I am asking is will he settle down and let the lines play out and get familiar with each other? If not what is his possible reason for doing this, he has had30 games now, he must have some idea who the pkayers are.

    My guess, based on what we’ve seen so far from him, is an unfortunate, no.

    I anticipate Puljujarvi may be a 1RW to start the game on Saturday morning at 11 and, given past history, I doubt he is in that position when afternoon comes for period 2.

  76. Leroy Draisdale says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Love your posts. Please don’t stop

  77. Darth Tu says:

    Leroy Draisdale:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Love your posts. Please don’t stop

    I second this. Why try to silence one of the few positive voices on the internet?

  78. HT Joe says:

    OriginalPouzar: Of course, if the quantity is annoying the community generally, I can stop.

    Not annoying this guy (love the updates). Please continue as you will!!

  79. Material Elvis says:

    OriginalPouzar: Why does it matter?

    I read the blog and, while reading, if there is something I want to comment on it, I do. I then continue reading.

    Not sure why you care who makes the posts.

    Feel free to ignore them all if you wish (need).

    Of course, if the quantity is annoying the community generally, I can stop.

    You will never make everyone happy. I think most of us appreciate your posts. Ignore the haters.

  80. leadfarmer says:

    Cassandra: e

    Its a good trade in a vacuum but he just traded a first round pick and two good prospects to upgrade Gardiner. I guess he gets to keep Gardiner for the playoff run this year but dont think they are ready to beat the Bolts.

  81. proudpapa says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    You don’t need to change a thing. You are a very valuable part of this community. I always enjoy reading your comments!

  82. Jordan says:

    Woogie63:
    Bob hold my beer

    Here are my specific picks for the new Oiler management team.

    Michelle Kennedy Président (Nash COO)
    Laurence Gilman GM (Van, TML)
    Keith Gretzky Assistant GM
    Garret Hohl Assistant GM (analytics, sports science, cap) (Founder of Hockeydata)
    Ray Ferraro Advisor to General Managers

    Darren Abbott VP Hockey operations (LAK)
    Bob Green Director of Amateur Scouting
    Jake Goldberg Director of Pro Scouting (VGK)
    Gary Roberts and Adam Oates Director of Player Development

    Coach Kirk Muller (MTL, STL, Car)

    I can see where you’re going with this.

    But how many Stanley Cup Rings do each of them have as Players?

    I think the team that these men would create might not have the warrior’s heart and character necessary to will a team to the Stanley Cup.

    I hear that’s why Chiarelli failed as GM in Edmonton… Not enough Character in the room.

  83. hunter1909 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Of course, if the quantity is annoying the community generally, I can stop.

    Post away. You’re a top poster these days.

    Around here, Lowetide’s the Sheriff. His word is law.

    The rest of us, are just here to help make up the numbers.

  84. npanciroli says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Love your posts, keep them coming please. Positivity is scarce here too.

  85. OriginalPouzar says:

    Joel Persson re-signed for next year – one year contract.

    I’m VERY curious as to the terms.

    I assume he required a one-way contract (so that he’ll get paid if he’s in the A) – although I’m not sure he won’t head back to the SHL if he doesn’t make the team out of camp.

    His ELC for this year included apx $800K in performance bonuses even though there was never a plan to have him in the NHL (he wanted one more year in Sweden and is on loan). I wouldn’t’ be surprised if the cap hit approaches $2M – hope not.

  86. OriginalPouzar says:

    McSorley33:
    GMB3,

    I actually lol’d.

    I thought Slepyshev was destined for a real career in the middle 6. Damn shame, he could wheel, carry the puck, and had a quick release.
    *****************************************************************************************************
    Same. Big player who could skate and had a great shot – though maybe not so accurate.

    We will never know, but curious if he would have had a different career arc with another
    organization.

    Edit: Pretty mundane numbers by Sleppy in the KHL though. 12 goals and 5 assists for 17points in 48 games.

    Grigorenko leads with 44 points in 48 games.

    Lots of big guys that could skate and shoot that simply never were able to put it together for some reason – Chad Kilger, Josh Green, etc.

  87. Leroy Draisdale says:

    We signed Persson

  88. Dee Dee says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – But Oil way is OBC with votes in the room, and when it goes bad, collude to blame/fire the guy who doesn’t have the right Oil culture

    ^^^^^ This

  89. flea says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Bob mentioned a few weeks ago there was a chance he could come over this year after the SHL season is over. When is it over and maybe this signing is somehow related to that?

  90. npanciroli says:

    I do like the Muzzin trade for the Leafs, but I think him being another LHD may cause them some issues.

  91. Jethro Tull says:

    OriginalPouzar: Of course, if the quantity is annoying the community generally, I can stop.

    Never stop never stopping.

  92. Lowetide says:

    RE: OP and posting too much:

    There’s no such thing. We want to have conversation and we want interesting thoughts. If you look through this thread every damned one of the posts has something of value, moving the conversation forward.

    That’s how we learn. Our ideas are challenged by others and we do the same. OP appears to have windows of opportunity to pop in here, and that’s how my time works too. I’ve enjoyed this thread very much, keep it up everyone!

  93. oilersjo says:

    Original Pouzar Keep them coming. Keep smiling as you type After all it is only a game.

  94. hunter1909 says:

    Dee Dee: ^^^^^ This

    Oilers management provide a good insight as to the working of the New World Order; with billionaire uber fat cats(Katz) surrounded by fawning flunkies(OBC), each involved in the elaborate game of surviving while delivering mediocre products.

  95. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilman99: Benson is more of a sure bet than Yamamoto at this stage. Yamamotois fading fast due to the fact that he does not appear to quick enough, or solid enough on his skates to compete in the corners. Benson’s skill level is at a high enough level that he does not have to be the fastest guy on the ice. His passing ability is on a level with Dreisitel.

    Whoa, I love me some Tyler Benson and I’ve been singing his praises for a few years now but I wouldn’t quite go as far as saying his passing is on Drai’s level – he’s got great vision but that’s a wee bit of an exaggeration to me.

  96. Cassandra says:

    leadfarmer: Its a good trade in a vacuum but he just traded a first round pick and two good prospects to upgrade Gardiner.I guess he gets to keep Gardiner for the playoff run this year but dont think they are ready to beat the Bolts.

    I don’t think they are good prospects.

    Grundstrom is 21 yrs old and has 29 points in 42 games in the AHL. He’s a prospect insofar as he has a chance at an NHL career, but he’s not in the top 100 prospects in the NHL and there aren’t 100 good prospects at any one time in any case. Every team has multiple guys like this. Is he even as good a prospect as Tyler Benson (who is also not a top 100 prospect)?

    Sean Durzi is in his overage season in the OHL. He has a chance too, but Grundstrom is a better prospect than he is.

    That leaves a late first round pick. So Kailer Yamamoto (another guy who is probably not a top 100 prospect).

    They get Muzzin for two playoffs.

    They are better this year and they replace Gardiner for next year without having to make a long term commitment.

  97. OmJo says:

    McSorley33:
    Now, say want you want about Nail Yakupov but he is 2nd on his team in goals scored and he
    has only dressed for 38 games.

    Someone in the NHL should take a chance on him as a reclamation project.

    Is there nobody that can teach the kid how to defend?

    Will be 26 next year and may be more receptive to listening to coaches.

    Nail is my Linus Omark.

    Staple Nailto McDavid he gets 30 goals a year.

    From what I understand, our current coach was in the process of fixing Yak prior to getting canned.

    Wink wink

  98. Jordan says:

    Lowetide:
    RE: OP and posting too much:

    There’s no such thing. We want to have conversation and we want interesting thoughts. If you look through this thread every damned one of the posts has something of value, moving the conversation forward.

    That’s how we learn. Our ideas are challenged by others and we do the same. OP appears to have windows of opportunity to pop in here, and that’s how my time works too. I’ve enjoyed this thread very much, keep it up everyone!

    Awe man… Why’d you have to do that LT?!

    I just went out and got my OriginalPouzar Jersey, and you give him the kiss of death?

    The Vote of Confidence by management?

    FFS.

    Another Jersey I can’t wear. I’ll have to put it up with my Jason Smith Captain’s Jersey and my Magnus Pajaarvi Jersey.

    Seriously OP, if you go to Calgary Puck or Leafs Nation now, I’ll be super pissed.

  99. OriginalPouzar says:

    RT26: Jakub Voracek

    Plus our 1st round pick plus Evan Bouchard and, what else?

  100. OriginalPouzar says:

    flea:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Bob mentioned a few weeks ago there was a chance he could come over this year after the SHL season is over. When is it over and maybe this signing is somehow related to that?

    I think the regular season ends mid-March.

    Don’t think the signing has anything to do with him coming over this year, he was already signed for this year – just getting him inked for next year.

  101. OriginalPouzar says:

    Persson did have an assist today – only played a shade over 17 min which is low for him.

    Looks like Berglund wasn’t in the lineup for Skelleftea.

  102. Lowetide says:

    One year One Million for Persson.

  103. OmJo says:

    Lowetide:
    One year One Millionfor Persson.

    Should have signed a week ago and gotten Ko$kinen money, $2.5M + NMC.

  104. CapeBretonOilers says:

    Lowetide,

    wheres my pitchfork !?!?!

  105. theDjdj says:

    OriginalPouzar: Why does it matter?

    I read the blog and, while reading, if there is something I want to comment on it, I do. I then continue reading.

    Not sure why you care who makes the posts.

    Feel free to ignore them all if you wish (need).

    Of course, if the quantity is annoying the community generally, I can stop.

    I live in Australia so whenever I get to the posts they’re hours old often with 150+ comments already. I read the article and skim the comments. Yours, among a few others, are the comments I always keep an eye out for and read thoroughly. I can’t speak for others, but for me you’re a real value add ontop of our host. Don’t stop.

  106. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jtblack:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    “I’d slot Muzzin below Klef, Sek (healthy), Larsson, and probably Nurse (cap and age factored in) for next year and 30 games”

    There would be many voices that would place Muzzin at the very top of this list.

    Yeah, I think I have Klef above him, but that’s it.

  107. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Jethro Tull: Remember every prospect is awesome
    Never, ever trade them
    Any of them
    Keep them until they drop out the system

    Every sperm is sacred
    Every sperm is great
    If a sperm gets wasted
    God gets quite irate

  108. Jethro Tull says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Every sperm is sacred
    Every sperm is great
    If a sperm gets wasted
    God gets quite irate

    One of the best………”Get that for me, would you, love.”

  109. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Professor Q:
    I personally don’t really know much about Muzzin. Apparently he grew to be an All-Star level player overnight?

    Naw, he’s been good for years.

    Fancystats fav for 4+ years

  110. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    RT26:
    Lucic (50% retained) + Talbot + 2020 3rd round pick to PHI for Jakub Voracek or Trevor Van Riemsdyke

    You might have to throw in the rights to Omark

  111. Darth Tu says:

    Lowetide:
    One year One Millionfor Persson.

    That sounds just about right to me. My fingers are crossed so hard that he makes it as a 5/6 D in the NHL.

  112. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Hemsky is a gangsta:
    Let’s offersheet Kasperi Kapanen.

    That’s a good idea.

    Wish there was cap room to do it

  113. Darth Tu says:

    flea:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Bob mentioned a few weeks ago there was a chance he could come over this year after the SHL season is over. When is it over and maybe this signing is somehow related to that?

    I think we’d need the Lakers to drop out of the playoff race for him to have a chance of coming over to NA in time for a few games. Seems unlikely looking at the table, I think we’ll be waiting till camp to see him.

  114. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yup, when all the anchor contracts (except Lucic) expire within the next two years, cap hell will be alleviated and I think the team can improve VERY quickly – in addition to the cap space, they’ll have JP and Yamamoto as 22 year olds (hopefully at least one has developed), Bouchard probably ready to make a material impact, McDavid, Drai, Nurse just entering their primes and a bundle of prospects that are NHL ready (or very close thereto) to provide value contracts as well as depth and injury cover.

    I was really excited when Pete took over and had McDavid in the bag, Hall, Drai, Eberle, RNH, Klefbom, Nurse the 16th and 33rd in a historically deep draft and $20MM in cap space.

  115. Oilpower says:

    The muzzin and hamonic trade seem pretty much the same trade. More term on hamonic, but not as good as muzzin?

  116. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide:
    RE: OP and posting too much:

    There’s no such thing. We want to have conversation and we want interesting thoughts. If you look through this thread every damned one of the posts has something of value, moving the conversation forward.

    That’s how we learn. Our ideas are challenged by others and we do the same. OP appears to have windows of opportunity to pop in here, and that’s how my time works too. I’ve enjoyed this thread very much, keep it up everyone!

    Truth

  117. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Cassandra: I don’t think they are good prospects.

    Grundstrom is 21 yrs old and has 29 points in 42 games in the AHL.He’s a prospect insofar as he has a chance at an NHL career, but he’s not in the top 100 prospects in the NHL and there aren’t 100 good prospects at any one time in any case.Every team has multiple guys like this.Is he even as good a prospect as Tyler Benson (who is also not a top 100 prospect)?

    Sean Durzi is in his overage season in the OHL.He has a chance too, but Grundstrom is a better prospect than he is.

    That leaves a late first round pick.So Kailer Yamamoto (another guy who is probably not a top 100 prospect).

    They get Muzzin for two playoffs.

    They are better this year and they replace Gardiner for next year without having to make a long term commitment.

    Facts?

    Gets your facts outta here!!!

  118. Pescador says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Every sperm is sacred
    Every sperm is great
    If a sperm gets wasted
    God gets quite irate

    Bloody Catholics
    https://youtu.be/PDBjsFAyiwA

  119. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Oilpower:
    The muzzin and hamonic trade seem pretty much the same trade. More term on hamonic, but not as good as muzzin?

    Different than Muzzin. Probably not as good.

    Muzzin being LHD and Hamonic RHD plays into this and Hamonic was moved in the summer so 3 full season of Hamonic.

    As Cassandra pointed out the prospects are B level and the pick is B level first.

  120. RonnieB says:

    OP
    I strongly agree with the other positive comments on your contributions here.

    Cameron Hebig…could you provide your profile on him please.

    I was pleased when the Oilers signed him and i was impressed by him in the Memorial Cup.
    I got excited when he began his pro career on a heater with 9 goals and 6 assists in his first 15 games.
    However his worse than Lucic-level drop since then ( 1g, 6a in 27 games incl. just 1a in 13 January games ) is disturbing.

  121. leadfarmer says:

    Cassandra,

    Without making a long term commitment is their problem. They need defense. They don’t have money. If they can’t re-sign Muzzin they still need a defenseman which are expensive. All transactions in cap world require cap implication analysis
    Added: Muzzin for 1 1/2 years
    Subtracted: 1st round pick. 2 good prospects (b level) Gardiner after this year
    Now Gardiner was never going to be re-signed. And they still have Zaitsev they need to get rid off.
    I like the trade for them. I just don’t see how they sign Marner and Matthews for under 20 mil

    People make it sound like we could have beat this trade easy. LA took no cap back. That is something we could not offer them. Plus the whole in division trade

  122. Bling says:

    OriginalPouzar: Whoa, I love me some Tyler Benson and I’ve been singing his praises for a few years now but I wouldn’t quite go as far as saying his passing is on Drai’s level – he’s got great vision but that’s a wee bit of an exaggeration to me.

    What’s your take on Benson’s low goal totals?

    Hard to imagine a guy scoring at a 10 G / 82 game rate in the AHL as a top 6er. Add in the average skating, and he almost looks like a surefire bottom sixer.

    Is he a guy that’s going to take another year in the AHL?

  123. npanciroli says:

    One thing also, Muzzin is a LHD and they are banking on either him or Morgan to play ok on their offside.

    Will be interesting to see how it plays out.

  124. OriginalPouzar says:

    Looks like the Persson contract is for $1M (one-way) – that is fantastic.

    Very stoked to see that number.

  125. --hudson-- says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Persson did have an assist today – only played a shade over 17 min which is low for him.

    Looks like Berglund wasn’t in the lineup for Skelleftea.

    Just noticed ex-Oiler Roman Horak is leading Vaxjo in scoring. Believe the Oilers still have his rights.

    Any chance they bring him back to compete for a bottom 6 spot?

    Unlike Lander he has decent speed and scored a goal in the final game at Rexall.

  126. Bling says:

    leadfarmer:
    Cassandra,

    Without making a long term commitment is their problem.They need defense.They don’t have money.If they can’t re-sign Muzzin they still need a defenseman which are expensive.All transactions in cap world require cap implication analysis
    Added:Muzzin for 1 1/2 years
    Subtracted:1st round pick.2 good prospects (b level) Gardiner after this year
    Now Gardiner was never going to be re-signed.And they still have Zaitsev they need to get rid off.
    I like the trade for them.I just don’t see how they sign Marner and Matthews for under 20 mil

    People make it sound like we could have beat this trade easy.LA took no cap back.That is something we could not offer them.Plus the whole in division trade

    Well, the alternative to this type of trade is giving up the equivalent of Hall for Larsson.

    Why mortgage off a core piece to address a hole long term when you can fill it with magic beans like Dubas did? Muzzin is also a bargain cap-wise next season.

    I agree with Cassandra, here. Those are nothing prospects the Buds tossed in. Complete heist by Dubas.

    I really wouldn’t bet against the Leafs fitting everyone in. They will find a way. And when Nylander gets going, the only team that can maybe stop them will be Tampa Bay.

  127. Bling says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Looks like the Persson contract is for $1M (one-way) – that is fantastic.

    Very stoked to see that number.

    Chia not pissing in the water is already paying dividends!

  128. JimmyV1965 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Why does it matter?

    I read the blog and, while reading, if there is something I want to comment on it, I do. I then continue reading.

    Not sure why you care who makes the posts.

    Feel free to ignore them all if you wish (need).

    Of course, if the quantity is annoying the community generally, I can stop.

    Keep it up OP. I really appreciate your posts and updates, even if I don’t say it often.

  129. leadfarmer says:

    Bling: Well, the alternative to this type of trade is giving up the equivalent of Hall for Larsson.

    Why mortgage off a core piece to address a hole long term when you can fill it with magic beans like Dubas did? Muzzin is also a bargain cap-wise next season.

    I agree with Cassandra, here. Those are nothing prospects the Buds tossed in. Complete heist by Dubas.

    I really wouldn’t bet against the Leafs fitting everyone in. They will find a way. And when Nylander gets going, the only team that can maybe stop them will be Tampa Bay.

    I don’t think your getting my point. Because of the cap they spent a first round pick and two B level prospects to not acquire Muzzin, but to upgrade Gardiner to Muzzin. By acquiring Muzzin they have to let Gardiner go
    They either trade him now or let him walk at end of season
    The trade is not in a vacuum. That’s why a lot of trades have cap going both ways

  130. workaroundaccount says:

    There’s got to be a better way to quantify successfully developped players. Lander played 200 games and didn’t really help at all. Slepyshev played 100 and barely scored at enforcer levels. These aren’t successes.

  131. OriginalPouzar says:

    Cassandra: I don’t think they are good prospects.

    Grundstrom is 21 yrs old and has 29 points in 42 games in the AHL.He’s a prospect insofar as he has a chance at an NHL career, but he’s not in the top 100 prospects in the NHL and there aren’t 100 good prospects at any one time in any case.Every team has multiple guys like this.Is he even as good a prospect as Tyler Benson (who is also not a top 100 prospect)?

    Sean Durzi is in his overage season in the OHL.He has a chance too, but Grundstrom is a better prospect than he is.

    Grundstrom is Marody’s age and scoring at lesser rates than Cooper in the AHL – that should give some indication of his value.

    Durzi is lighting it up, as he should be expected as a guy that turn 20 months ago in the CHL – I’m mad though as his trade to Guelph has taken some PP and offensive opportunities away from Samorukov (who I think is the MUCH better prospect).

  132. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide:
    One year One Millionfor Persson.

    Ya, I saw that – that is a great number in my opinion.

    I may have read too much in to (a) his signing to burn his ELC (i.e. signed knowing his ELC would expire without coming over the water and (b) his negotiating that $800K plus bonus with knowledge that he wouldn’t even be playing in N. America with a chance to earn it (I thought he wanted to increase his potential AAV for “precedent”).

    Not to get too far ahead of myself, but this could be a value contract next year – I believe he has, or should have, the inside track on the 3RD job (over Bear, Bouchard, Berglund).

    Also, thank you for the confirmation in the earlier post and to the support of the others.

  133. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: That’s a good idea.

    Wish there was cap room to do it

    Yup, he’d be a great fit and, to me, that secondary level scoring winger is where the Leafs are going to have to make a disposition – they’ll re-sign Matthews and Marner but someone like KK may have to go.

  134. Bling says:

    leadfarmer: I don’t think your getting my point.Because of the cap they spent a first round pick and two B level prospects to not acquire Muzzin, but to upgrade Gardiner to Muzzin.By acquiring Muzzin they have to let Gardiner go
    They either trade him now or let him walk at end of season
    The trade is not in a vacuum.That’s why a lot of trades have cap going both ways

    Flags fly forever. This is the type of move you make when you are where the Leafs are on the win curve.

    Running a top 4 D of Reilly Muzzin Gardiner Dermott/Hainsey is championship caliber.

    They are paying to upgrade Gardiner next season at a steal of a cap hit PLUS they improve their chances at a championship this season. The only real threat in front of them was Tampa, and this trade narrows that gap.

  135. OriginalPouzar says:

    RonnieB:
    OP
    I strongly agree with the other positive comments on your contributions here.

    Cameron Hebig…could you provide your profile on him please.

    I was pleased when the Oilers signed him and i was impressed by him in the Memorial Cup.
    I got excited when he began his pro career on a heater with 9 goals and 6 assists in his first 15 games.
    However his worse than Lucic-level drop since then ( 1g, 6a in 27 games incl. just 1a in 13 January games ) is disturbing.

    I really liked what Hebig was able to do in junior but remember he was in his over-age season last year and not many players that play in their over-age season make the NHL.

    I never thought he should be put in the same category as Benson and Marody as, even though I like Hebig, he was (and is) a long shot to ever have an NHL career.

    He is a solid player for the Condors – good skater, likes to shoot, strong on the puck. He got off to a strong start this season but I believe there was a Chiasson-like shooting percentage heater (well not quite 40%) and, recall, almost all his points were goals and almost all of them on the PP.

    He hasn’t really produced at evens for the majority of the year.

  136. theDjdj says:

    Bling: What’s your take on Benson’s low goal totals?

    Hard to imagine a guy scoring at a 10 G / 82 game rate in the AHL as a top 6er. Add in the average skating, and he almost looks like a surefire bottom sixer.

    Is he a guy that’s going to take another year in the AHL?

    Wilde actually had a great data backed take on this. Basically Benson is thriving in the AHL in all but shooting percentage. Just a matter of being able to adjust to scoring on superior goalies. He’s getting the looks.

  137. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bling: What’s your take on Benson’s low goal totals?

    Hard to imagine a guy scoring at a 10 G / 82 game rate in the AHL as a top 6er. Add in the average skating, and he almost looks like a surefire bottom sixer.

    Is he a guy that’s going to take another year in the AHL?

    His goals are low but his shot volumes are not – and, to my eye, he’s not taking Puljujarvi-like muffins from the outside. He is definitely a pass first guy as he really does have very good vision and passing skill but I think his shooting percentage should spike a bit and we’ll see some more goals.

    He very well could end up being a middle six or bottom 6 guy at the NHL level (or still never make it) and that’s just fine – its always good to have a high hockey IQ with some skill in that area of the lineup.

    Absolutely he may take another year – he’s 20. He should be in the conversation in October though.

  138. Glovjuice says:

    Oilman99: Benson is more of a sure bet than Yamamoto at this stage. Yamamotois fading fast due to the fact that he does not appear to quick enough, or solid enough on his skates to compete in the corners. Benson’s skill level is at a high enough level that he does not have to be the fastest guy on the ice. His passing ability is on a level with Dreisitel.

    Ya mo is not a good enough skater to make it. Old boy hockey groupthink got his skating all wrong. Said it before and I’ll say it again. Why in the hell is there not a few different timed skating assessments at the combine. Hockey really is embarrassing.

  139. Scungilli Slushy says:

    One reason the Leafs May have gone for Muzzin is their window of opportunity.

    They have some good pieces and lack the balance to be a deep contender. They have significant cap decisions looming. There is no clear favourite for the Cup.

    Making a major addition to their weakest link puts them in the running with every team, only Tampa is more of a likelihood. Goaltending of course means the most, for everyone.

    This may be their best shot at a cup for a while, as the D prospects mature and with cap subtractions , especially owing to what Matthews and Marner will get, Nylander already paid.

    Man I hope Nicholson surprises us in a good way. Cogent thinking would be a breath of fresh air.

  140. Chief Inspector says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Looks like the Persson contract is for $1M (one-way) – that is fantastic.

    Very stoked to see that number.

    Very encouraging to see.

  141. Pescador says:

    Glovjuice: Ya mo is not a good enough skater to make it. Old boy hockey groupthink got his skating all wrong. Said it before and I’ll say it again. Why in the hell is there not a few different timed skating assessments at the combine. Hockey really is embarrassing.

    Re: Moto’s motor
    You’ll forgive us if we don’t take your word for it.
    You sure that your dislike of this player isn’t based solely on your size bias?
    Cause that would be the epitome of Old boy hockey group think
    Hockey fans & their over the top criticism of players really is embarrassing

  142. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Everything in moderation is a good saying. The Oilers have binged on character, there is too much character in the room now, Burgers is wrong about that.

    I hope he new GM can convince him being effective at current hockey is like character, but even better. And that any coach that has Connor McDavid on his roster should build around him and playing the boards shouldn’t be priority number one.

    Defense is critical, defense at all costs is boring and typically not successful ultimately when it counts most. These days anyway.

  143. RonnieB says:

    Lowetide

    Terrific column. Thanks for your insights.

    Just a few things on Patrick Russell.
    He was also signed as a free agent out of NCAA, so might have belonged in that tier for analysis.
    He is not RFA this year. He is Group VI UFA.
    His offensive numbers have improved each year in the AHL. This year he is 33 games 10-14-24 and his +18 is 7 higher than the next best (Gambardella) on the team.
    I thought he didn’t seem terribly out of place as a bottom 6 winger during his brief minutes call up this season; kinda reminded me of Tyler Pitlick given his age and UFA status too.

  144. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Chiarelli fears top heavy offense apparently, from his history. He was as loaded up as all get out when he took over. As WG mentioned with cap to spare.

    I hope the Oilers have learned something from his tenure. We watch the Leafs and Flames surge ahead, an absolute offense to us, personally. The team that showed the way at one time.

    A GM that can actually make trades can clear the decks soon enough. We are so used to getting swirlied it seems impossible, but it isn’t.

    There is no reason punk kid Dubas with no deep connections could acquire a top end D with a year left for decent but not premium assets, and the Oilers drastically overpaid under Chiarelli other than incompetence at deal making. Or in judgement.

  145. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: Grundstrom is Marody’s age and scoring at lesser rates than Cooper in the AHL – that should give some indication of his value.

    Durzi is lighting it up, as he should be expected as a guy that turn 20 months ago in the CHL – I’m mad though as his trade to Guelph has taken some PP and offensive opportunities away from Samorukov (who I think is the MUCH better prospect).

    Do you think LA would do a similar deal for Toffoli? In our case it could be a 2nd (40th or so) + Marody? Would that get it done? Toffoli isn’t having a good season (last year either) so that may limit his trade value… I was comparing his career stats with Chris Kreider and they’re pretty similar. I would much rather have Kreider, but he’s hot this year and that will drive the price way up.

  146. Glovjuice says:

    OriginalPouzar: Why does it matter?

    I read the blog and, while reading, if there is something I want to comment on it, I do. I then continue reading.

    Not sure why you care who makes the posts.

    Feel free to ignore them all if you wish (need).

    Of course, if the quantity is annoying the community generally, I can stop.

    Ben, don’t be an ass.

  147. Glovjuice says:

    BEN is a pro censorship warrior. Gross.

  148. OriginalPouzar says:

    theDjdj: Wilde actually had a great data backed take on this. Basically Benson is thriving in the AHL in all but shooting percentage. Just a matter of being able to adjust to scoring on superior goalies. He’s getting the looks.

    Yes, that piece was unreal – was a resource he is (and various others in this community).

  149. RonnieB says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Re: Hebig

    Thanks.

  150. Scungilli Slushy says:

    ArmchairGM: Do you think LA would do a similar deal for Toffoli? In our case it could be a 2nd (40th or so) + Marody? Would that get it done? Toffoli isn’t having a good season (last year either) so that may limit his trade value… I was comparing his career stats with Chris Kreider and they’re pretty similar. I would much rather have Kreider,but he’s hot this year and that will drive the price way up.

    Do the Oilers need more slow boots? At the right price yes.

    IMO most players don’t have the hockey IQ to help if they are sluggish skaters, they need help.

    Especially in the league now. The team doesn’t need more passengers that need a boost. They need complimentary players that have more than one attribute. Or they have to be dragged around as we are seeing, tanking the best players.

  151. Primetime says:

    leadfarmer: I don’t think your getting my point.Because of the cap they spent a first round pick and two B level prospects to not acquire Muzzin, but to upgrade Gardiner to Muzzin.By acquiring Muzzin they have to let Gardiner go
    They either trade him now or let him walk at end of season
    The trade is not in a vacuum.That’s why a lot of trades have cap going both ways

    Man I hate defending the Leafs, but here goes….

    Lead, maybe try looking at it a different way

    – They added Muzzin, a very good defenseman at an even better price point. It solidifies a defence that INCLUDES Gardiner, and with their group of forwards, now have a legitimate shot at winning the Cup THIS YEAR. That’s what teams at the cusp should be doing

    – Muzzin does have another year at the same great price point. You’re correct that Gardiner will likely have to go next year, but I don’t think they care. Gardiner is now the de facto deadline rental player that they traded a late first and 2 B prospects for…Muzzin is on the team next year. If any other team on the verge of a Cup added Gardiner at that low of a price, we would call the GM a genius

    – In the summer, there is no pressure, or maybe even need to keep Gardiner. Ultimate position of power, if you want to stay, then sign a team friendly contract, if not move on. Or maybe we don’t even want to sign you, because of the Matthews/Marner contracts. Either way, as mentioned, they have a few top D prospects that should be ready to go in 2 years anyway, and they will now have the roster room for them

  152. OriginalPouzar says:

    RonnieB:
    Lowetide

    Terrific column. Thanks for your insights.

    Just a few things on Patrick Russell.
    He was also signed as a free agent out of NCAA, so might have belonged in that tier for analysis.
    He is not RFA this year. He is Group VI UFA.
    His offensive numbers have improved each year in the AHL. This year he is 33 games 10-14-24 and his +18 is 7 higher than the next best (Gambardella) on the team.
    I thought he didn’t seem terribly out of place as a bottom 6 winger during his brief minutes call up this season; kinda reminded me of Tyler Pitlick given his age and UFA status too.

    I don’t imagine that Patrick Russell will ever be an every day NHL player – he’s 26 years old already.

    With that said, he is a very good AHL player and a real important part of the Condors team – he provides plus penalty killing, even strength offence, responsible play in all zones and leadership.

    Subject to the 50 man roster, I would indeed bring him back – I’m sure Malone, Callahan, etc. will be let go but there needs to be some consistency in the “veteran” group and I think it should be Joe G. and P. Russell.

    Of course, although I don’t see him ever “making it”, as we saw this year, he could fill on the 4th line in a pinch. I am hopeful that we are too the point very soon where we have young prospects that are NHL ready in the minors waiting for those call-up spots, real prospects, and we don’t need the “career AHLer” (no disrespect intended for the Dane) to fill in.

    This year, I’m all about leaving the kids (Benson, Marody, Lagesson, Bear, etc.) in the AHL but, starting next year, a few of these kids should prove to be “ready” and that injury depth will be a big boost.

  153. Oilpower says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    True, however it is a first and two picks from the second round for both, and I bet Calgary thought those picks would be lower then they were. Just seems to me that both deals had the buyer giving up equal assets.

  154. Pescador says:

    Oilman99: Benson is more of a sure bet than Yamamoto at this stage. Yamamotois fading fast due to the fact that he does not appear to quick enough, or solid enough on his skates to compete in the corners. Benson’s skill level is at a high enough level that he does not have to be the fastest guy on the ice. His passing ability is on a level with Dreisitel.

    Howson is that you?
    This is just false,
    how csn you compare the 2 if Benson has not yet played against NHL comp? You can’t,
    as for quickness Yammo gets around the ice better than Benson.
    Moto should have started the season in the AHL as a 20 year old 1st year pro.
    22nd overall pick- he is right on track.
    No fade whatsoever,

  155. Pescador says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I was really excited when Pete took over and had McDavid in the bag, Hall, Drai, Eberle, RNH, Klefbom, Nurse the 16th and 33rd in a historically deep draft and $20MM in cap space.

    Trading the 16th & 33rd for an NHL top 4 D was the right play.
    Funny how all of the masterminds that pushed for this trade still have a job & Boris Badenov got the axe.
    https://g.co/kgs/TYi25A

  156. ArmchairGM says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Do the Oilers need more slow boots? At the right price yes.

    IMO most players don’t have the hockey IQ to help if they are sluggish skaters, they need help.

    Especially in the league now. The team doesn’t need more passengers that need a boost. They need complimentary players that have more than one attribute. Or they have to be dragged around as we are seeing, tanking the best players.

    He isn’t a speed demon, but I didn’t think Toffoli had slow boots. And I said I prefer Kreider anyhow, who is a great skater.

  157. leadfarmer says:

    So supposedly Chia was working on a big deal with the Blackhawks just before he was canned.
    Whatever it was, I’m sure it was truly terrible

  158. tileguy says:

    OmJo: From what I understand, our current coach was in the process of fixing Yak prior to getting canned.

    Wink wink

    Lol, best post this year.

  159. Pescador says:

    leadfarmer,

    Is there an article or hearsay?

  160. OriginalPouzar says:

    I don’t understand how a recently drafted 22nd overall pick can be fading 30 games in to his rookie pro season as a 20 year old – much closer to 19 than 21. I’m not sure that’s possible.

    Man the expectations portions of the fanbase put on the the prospects.

  161. dcsj says:

    I’m not convinced Yamamoto was the right choice, but we don’t get to go back to that draft and have a do over. So I’ll cheer for progress and hope he makes it.

    Of course, I hope they all make it, but that’s not realistic.

  162. GMB3 says:

    Jethro Tull: Your whole premise is built on being able to draft, then develop properly.Which we can’t.We have to first get a forward thinking general manager that can actually be at the forefront of change, rather than desperately looking around the league at who’s currently good and doing a cheap imitation of them and if that fails, going back to what made you successful years ago.

    If we had a good draft and development team, then I would agree with you.If we had a team good enough to let the prospect mature in the minors, then I’d agree with you.Picks are only worth something to teams that are already good, that have the luxury of time to mature these young men and then shelter them when they come up to the big team.

    We’re not there yet.We first have to get the right GM.Then we have to become better than mediocre with astute signings, trades and hoping we get some value in the lower rounds in the drafts.

    I find it extremely blinkered thinking that we should do any one thing because somebody else did it and had success, or that it worked before.

    We have to get the process right before we can even think of results.

    I’d surmise that draft picks have the most value to teams who aren’t very good. It’s really the only way to add an elite player, and the worse the team is the better the odds are that they get a player who makes an impact on their ELC, which is manna from heaven in the cap world.

    The other type of team that draft picks have a ton of value too are teams hamstrung by poor contracts, much like our beloved Edmonton Oilers.

  163. YKOil says:

    Have more time for Pulju than I do Yama but I hope they both turn the corner.

    Word is Matthews is looking at a 5 or 6 year deal so that will take him down into the $9-10 million range – which makes a lot more roster magic do-able. Luckily we have Lucic for on a 7 year deal.

    Muzzin trade was steal. Makes Chiarelli look even worse. Makes Nicholson look worse too.

    Was Chia’s only friend Garth Snow? And is Garth Snow going to hell because he took advantage on a complete idiot soooo often?

    (Ray Shero watches the Reinhart trade go down and makes a mental note to himself)

    sigh

  164. Dicky94 says:

    Is it Saturday tomorrow?

  165. GMB3 says:

    Cassandra: I don’t think they are good prospects.

    Grundstrom is 21 yrs old and has 29 points in 42 games in the AHL.He’s a prospect insofar as he has a chance at an NHL career, but he’s not in the top 100 prospects in the NHL and there aren’t 100 good prospects at any one time in any case.Every team has multiple guys like this.Is he even as good a prospect as Tyler Benson (who is also not a top 100 prospect)?

    Sean Durzi is in his overage season in the OHL.He has a chance too, but Grundstrom is a better prospect than he is.

    That leaves a late first round pick.So Kailer Yamamoto (another guy who is probably not a top 100 prospect).

    They get Muzzin for two playoffs.

    They are better this year and they replace Gardiner for next year without having to make a long term commitment.

    Nice to see you posting.

  166. GMB3 says:

    It’s a shame the New York Rangers aren’t loser in the standings. Imagine picking up Hughes and having a reasonable shot at Panarin in the summer? Would help accelerate their rebuild.

  167. YKOil says:

    GMB3:
    It’s a shame the New York Rangers aren’t loser in the standings. Imagine picking up Hughes and having a reasonable shot at Panarin in the summer? Would help accelerate their rebuild.

    Well, outside of: Lundqvist (32), Zuccarello (31), Shattenkirk (30) and Staal (32) the Rangers actually have a very young team.

    If they could trade out Zuccarello (salary and age) and Namestnikov (salary vs performance), re-sign Hayes and bring in Panarin and Hughes… yeah, rebuild basically over. Lots of good pieces there.

    Defense would remain an issue.

    You could say that adding Hughes and Panarin would help a lot of teams but the truth is, the Rangers are far closer than most of the rest imo.

  168. Pescador says:

    dcsj:
    I’m not convinced Yamamoto was the right choice, but we don’t get to go back to that draft and have a do over. So I’ll cheer for progress and hope he makes it.

    Of course, I hope they all make it, but that’s not realistic.

    I can appreciate this post, you’re not sure
    That’s my point exactly
    No one is, seems to be a number of people claiming that he was the wrong pick because they know or they can see it now. “his skating isn’t elite”
    How’s that work? Draft picks need 4-5 years sometimes more, especially those chosen later in the first round.
    “He’s no Johnny Gaudreau”
    NFS! Most players aren’t & can’t be that’s why JG is elite.
    A player that is a better comparable for Yamamoto is Andrew Cogliano,
    If KY plays 300 games for the Oilers as a 3rd line winger that is the definition of a good draft pick at 22.
    Lower your expectations and it’s easier to see an NHL player as opposed to a complete draft bust.

  169. oilersfan says:

    I wanted to take a second to make the point that Steve Yzerman as a gm is likely overrated, or at least the success he had were due to several factors that could not be replicated in most markets, especially Edmonton

    1) drafting. Tampa bAy drafting is and has been exceptional for years. How much credit should the gm get for that? I would guess less than 10%. Clearly he wasn’t the head scout or area scout .. whoever is or was should be a hot free agent available to be poached, though. I hope the new Oilers GM finds some of those Tampa bay scouts and hires them to work here for a double the salary type deal

    2) préférable tax treatment. Much was made that Stamkos stayed in Tampa because their offer was actually more after taxes than the Leafs offer. Good for yzerman but he is not responsible for the superior tax situation in Florida and couldn’t replicate that in any Canadian market. This tax structure has lead to several “home town discounts” the lightning receive from their players that is often under noticed when attributing the great contracts TB and yzerman have negotiated with their players.
    3) amazing weather. Same as above, won’t be replicated in Detroit or canada

    I don’t expect yzerman to come here but wouldn’t be overly thrilled if he did as I think those three factors played a disproportionate role in his success there that wouldn’t be replicated here.

    Also, glad to see the idea of trading spooner for gagner getting some attention from Stauffer and now leavins at the cult of hockey. Hopefully the oilers ask and the Canucks agree based on a change of scenery idea for both of them

  170. YKOil says:

    Pescador: I can appreciate this post, you’re not sure. That’s my point exactly
    No one is, seems to be a number of people claiming that he was the wrong pick because they know or they can see it now. “his skating isn’t elite”. How’s that work? Draft picks need 4-5 years sometimes more, especially those chosen later in the first round.
    “He’s no Johnny Gaudreau” NFS! Most players aren’t and can’t be that’s why JG is elite.
    A player that is a better comparable for Yamamoto is Andrew Cogliano, If KY plays 300 games for the Oilers as a 3rd line winger that is the definition of a good draft pick at 22.

    Lower your expectations and it’s easier to see an NHL player as opposed to a complete draft bust.

    I was thinking a smaller, but better, version of Anton Lander. Not the same player I know. Lander was bigger, they played different positions, etc. Yamamoto’s skating is better, speed is better, skills are better but, unlike Lander, the defensive side of the game isn’t there yet.

    And that is what Yama needs to pick up on. Barring a surge in skating and speed and finish Yamamoto will have issues in the game even once it slows down for him and may never get past the cup of coffee stage, BUT an aspect of the game he can improve on is the defensive game. He enough speed to be a PK specialist and 3rd line stalwart who can play up if needed.

    Utility. That is the ticket for Yamamoto. Hope he grabs it.

  171. dcsj says:

    Also, glad to see the idea of trading spooner for gagner getting some attention from Stauffer and now leavins at the cult of hockey. Hopefully the oilers ask and the Canucks agree based on a change of scenery idea for both of them

    That would make it: Eberle for Gagner — the irony!

  172. Oiler_Kiwi97 says:

    dustrock: The break gave me some good perspective.I went to Hawaii last week.Was barely on twitter.Read LT every day but didn’t post.

    Realized I was spending a lot of time on twitter and getting into some negative conversations.Decided to stay off Twitter as of this morning.Feels good.

    I would suspect I’ve spent 10x as much time this season on LT, Twitter etc talking about the team than actually watching the games.

    Every year I care less about the NHL.If it wasn’t for this blog and my hockey pool, I’d probably stop paying attention to the NHL entirely.

    There’s a study which revealed sports fans typically get longer-lasting frustration and negative emotions from their team(s) losing than the pleasure and satisfaction of winning and that’s been my experience with the team.

    I’ve been able to get enough perspective that I just laughed when I saw Koskinen’s extension, whereas I would previously be bitching about it for months at a time.

    I’ll continue to come here daily for LT’s prose and poesy, as well as the comments and the discussion aroundall that is dreamt of in our philosophy, but I think I’ll only comment on the non-hockey issues, it leads to less frustration on my part.

    Wise words. Didn’t go to Hawaii, lucky you, and my passion for the Oilers has certainly waned as well. Will always continue to visit Lowetide for my daily fix of all things Pokers.

  173. hunter1909 says:

    YKOil: Pescador: I can appreciate this post, you’re not sure. That’s my point exactly
    No one is, seems to be a number of people claiming that he was the wrong pick because they know or they can see it now. “his skating isn’t elite”. How’s that work? Draft picks need 4-5 years sometimes more, especially those chosen later in the first round.

    Hunter1909’s Take on Yamamoto:

    Normal 1st round Oilers draft pick – hyped to the limit when easy exhibition points are to be had, and the suckers buy it year after year who why change?

    Heard he weighed under 150 pounds which is small for junior players the NHL well…saw him play he looked totally not ready for the NHL. Hoped they would drop him off in the AHL for 2 years but no, next training camp he’s getting time with the Oilers and he, now predictably floundered.

    Oilers fucked up Jesse P and now want to destroy Yamamoto. Thankfully Bouchard’s been given a miracle extra year in the OHL; I’d like to tell Lowetide fans to relax he’s going to be a very good rushing defenceman.

    Final thought on Yamamoto: Since they can’t let him develop properly, I am afraid he’s a doomed prospect. Any real NHL management would make a special case for Yamamoto and he can be 22-23 before he sees the NHL, and we all know the Oilers are always desperate, rebuilding, and selling snake oil.

    Over to Original Pouzar, who is one of the few voices of optimism these days…

  174. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pescador: I can appreciate this post, you’re not sure
    That’s my point exactly
    No one is, seems to be a number of people claiming that he was the wrong pick because they know or they can see it now. “his skating isn’t elite”
    How’s that work? Draft picks need 4-5 years sometimes more, especially those chosen later in the first round.
    “He’s no Johnny Gaudreau”
    NFS! Most players aren’t & can’t be that’s why JG is elite.
    A player that is a better comparable for Yamamoto is Andrew Cogliano,
    If KY plays 300 games for the Oilers as a 3rd line winger that is the definition of a good draft pick at 22.
    Lower your expectations and it’s easier to see an NHL player as opposed to a complete draft bust.

    I absolutely agree – there is absolutely no way of telling at this point if Yamamoto was the “right pick” or what type of career he may have.

    What I take issue with is those that are disappointed with his development so far or feel that he is “tracking” in a negative way or towards a bust.

    Facts are that, given he was drafted 22nd overall (i.e. not a top 5 or even top 10 pick), history shows that reasonable expectations are for his development to include draft plus 1 back in the CHL and at least a year, if not multiple years, of AHL development time. I believe his development is right on line with reasonable expectations.

    If he would have been assigned to the AHL at the beginning of October and left there, we probably would have a bit of a clearer picture of how close he might be to the NHL but, not shockingly, he as been yo-yoed between leagues (just as he was last year). It seems every time he is re-assigned somewhere, it take him a bit of time to adjust (i.e when sent back to junior last year, when first sent to the AHL this year, now when re-sent to the AHL).

    I would posit that if Kailer is just left in the AHL for the rest of the year, ultimately he will produce near a PPG and come to camp confident next year ready to compete for a middle 6 spot on the roster as a 21 year old.

    Lets not forget, St. Louis, Gaudreau, Tyler Johnson, etc. – none of them were in the NHL at Kailer’s age.

  175. OriginalPouzar says:

    hunter1909: Hunter1909’s

    Final thought on Yamamoto: Since they can’t let him develop properly, I am afraid he’s a doomed prospect. Any real NHL management would make a special case for Yamamoto and he can be 22-23 before he sees the NHL, and we all know the Oilers are always desperate, rebuilding, and selling snake oil.

    What I would like to point out is that “he can be 22-23 before he sees the NHL” isn’t actually a special case in the NHL – its somewhat common for many non top 10 drafted prospects. Of course, history shows its a special case for the Oilers but it shouldn’t be.

    Of course, the many posts we see in this forum and all over social media about Kailer trending towards a bust and his development not currently meeting expectations shows that Oiler fans, media. bloggers, seem to have unreasonable expectations on prospect development timelines.

    Lets preach patience and development with prospects and then get disapointed when they aren’t in the NHL at 20 years old (and closer to 19 than 21).

  176. godot10 says:

    dcsj: That would make it: Eberle for Gagner — the irony!

    Eberle and Irony… Didn’t Michael Jackson and Paul McCartney write a song about that?

  177. flyfish1168 says:

    OP absolutly do not stop what you are doing. I don’t come here everday but when I do you are one person I always read. You give valuable updates and show your passion for our team. I like tgat you and I can disagree but we walk away still friends. If you post less it will take a little away from this site that I look forward too. Keep up with what you are doing. I appreciate your posts

  178. flyfish1168 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Every sperm is sacred
    Every sperm is great
    If a sperm gets wasted
    God gets quite irate

    Lol. trump and Trudeau unfortunately should have been

  179. Lowetide says:

    For The Athletic: Finding a path to the playoffs may involve reckless use of future assets by the Oilers

    https://theathletic.com/789420/2019/01/30/lowetide-finding-a-path-to-the-playoffs-may-involve-reckless-use-of-future-assets-by-the-oilers/

  180. Bank Shot says:

    OriginalPouzar

    Lets not forget, St. Louis, Gaudreau, Tyler Johnson, etc. – none of them were in the NHL at Kailer’s age.

    They weren’t first round picks though. In the case of a guy like Gaudreau he was killing it at lower levels despite being a 4th rounder.

    Yamamoto’s record since draft day has been much more uneven.

    The chances of Kailer being an elite NHLer are fading quickly IMO.

  181. Ryan says:

    Lowetide:
    For The Athletic: Finding a path to the playoffs may involve reckless use of future assets by the Oilers

    https://theathletic.com/789420/2019/01/30/lowetide-finding-a-path-to-the-playoffs-may-involve-reckless-use-of-future-assets-by-the-oilers/

    Ha Allan. It’s incredible these Oilers!

    “The chief issues, as I see them, are finding a new Maroon, a third-line right-handed centre to give some kind of structure to the bottom six forwards…”

    You mean someone uhh like a Ryan Strome to centre the third line?

    Why did they let Chiarelli continue to shoot himself in the foot?

  182. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bank Shot: They weren’t first round picks though. In the case of a guy like Gaudreau he was killing it at lower levels despite being a 4th rounder.

    Yamamoto’s record since draft day has been much more uneven.

    The chances of Kailer being an elite NHLer are fading quickly IMO.

    Yamamoto’s record since his draft day is pretty much in line with the reasonable expectations of a 22nd overall pick – there are a handful of players picked after him, in like the next 30 picks, that have even played an NHL game.

    The chances of a 22nd overall being an “elite” NHLer are slim – if that is what one was expecting from this pick then, again, I would posit unreasonable expectations.

    I would posit a 50% chance of a middle six NHLer should be the reasonable expectation for a 22nd overall forward.

  183. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ryan: Ha Allan. It’s incredible these Oilers!

    “The chief issues, as I see them, are finding a new Maroon, a third-line right-handed centre to give some kind of structure to the bottom six forwards…”

    You mean someone uhh like a Ryan Strome to centre the third line?

    Why did they let Chiarelli continue to shoot himself in the foot?

    Just wait until Spooner gets a legit shot in the top 6 and is able to provide secondary scoring as a complementary piece – as he has done for most of his career.

    Of course, Hitch won’t allow the opportunity but I’m not so sure he’s behind the bench next season.

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