Wouldn’t it be Nice

That was a big damned win. It was also the best game the Oilers have played in a long time. Edmonton got fed in possession, and gave up many fabulous chances, but Cam Talbot played a helluva game, the power play continued to fire live bullets, the penalty kill was aggressive and the club climbed a little closer to the playoffs. The team skated well, moved the puck effectively and cashed on chances. Music!

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton brought it yesterday, there’s a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group. Outstanding offer is here.

OILERS AFTER 54

  • Oilers in 2015: 21-28-5, 47 points; goal differential -28
  • Oilers in 2016: 28-18-8, 64 points; goal differential +11
  • Oilers in 2017: 23-27-4, 50 points; goal differential -29
  • Oilers in 2018: 24-25-5, 53 points; goal differential -17

We don’t know where this team will land, but the victory in St. Paul last night ends a losing streak and offers hope to all participants. The goal differential improves, both because the team scored three (before the EN) and managed to stop all but one.

OILERS IN FEBRUARY

  • Oilers in February 2016: 1-3-0, two points; goal differential -15
  • Oilers in February 2017: 1-3-0, two points; goal differential -7
  • Oilers in February 2018: 1-2-1, three points; goal differential +1
  • Oilers in February 2019: 1-1-2, four points; goal differential -4

As of right now, this is the most productive McDavid Oilers team for the month of February. The team needs a winning streak, is it possible the seeds were sown during that ghastly third period against Chicago?

WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY

  • On the road to: Philadelphia, Montreal (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-2)
  • At home to: Chicago (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
  • On the road to: Minnesota (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • At home to: San Jose (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: Pittsburgh, Carolina, NY Islanders (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Arizona, NY Islanders, Anaheim (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: Nashville, Toronto, Ottawa (Expected 1-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 7-6-1, 15 points in 14 games
  • Current results: 1-1-2, four points in four games

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

  • Klefbom-Larsson were 10-11 in 16:37, 6-6 shots, no goals and 1-1 HDSC. Both men played well, Klefbom battled along the wall as well as I’ve ever seen him, and Larsson was strong in all defensive areas. Went 4-4 in 9:30 against Greenway-Staal-Granlund, that’s now the top line for Minnesota. Klefbom’s play was outstanding, Hitchcock mentioned how much he means to the Oilers in the postgame.
  • Manning-Benning went 8-18 in 12:34, 6-11 shots, 1-0 goals and 3-4 HDSC. I thought both men played well at times, but Manning is slow to recognize danger in front and Benning isn’t taking enough care with his outlet passes. Pair was 4-6 in 5:22 against Parise-Rask-Coyle. I prefer Gravel to Manning.
  • Nurse-Russell were 8-22 in 17:09, 4-15 shots, 1-1 goals and 1-4 HDSC. Very few pairings play the style of 25-4, who don’t push the puck much and pay for it with extra defensive sorties. They both need Sekera. Went 2-13 (0-1 GF) against Zucker-Eriksen Ek-Kunin. Russell was thrown into the turnbuckle and survived. Huge goal by Nurse, it gave the team early momentum.
  • Cam Talbot was excellent, stopping 35 of 36, .972. Impressive game.
  • NaturalStatTrick and NHL.com.

FORWARDS, LAST NIGHT

  • Lucic-Nuge-Chiasson were terrific, going 7-8 in 10:30, 4-6 shots, no goals but 0-3 HDSC. They were the one line who were mostly effective in keeping the puck 10 miles from danger.
  • Rieder-Cave-Puljujarvi went 3-7 in 4:25, 2-4 shots and 2-0 HDSC. Impressive showing by the line, the two youngsters had their moments in this game.
  • Draisaitl-McDavid-Rattie were 8-20 in 14:27, 3-13 shots 0-1 goals and 1-6 HDSC. That’s awful. Of course both wingers scored and the center had two assists, so it wasn’t all bad. McDavid was 6-23 against Suter-Spurgeon in 13:31.
  • Khaira-Malone-Kassian were 4-14 in 11:10, 2-10 shots and 1-1 HDSC. Line was faster with Malone in the middle, he was solid save for taking too long to move the puck. Kassian had a fine game, I liked Khaira’s passing and physical play.

CONDORS STATS (BLUE)

Eric Rodgers has been delivering quality AHL stats since the Oklahoma City days, and he continues to do it several times a season for the Bakersfield Condors. It’s a unique look inside the team and gives us a strong idea about who is pushing results (scoring and outscoring) in the AHL. I passed along the forwards yesterday, today we have the defensemen. The two categories that have the biggest importance are TOI and goal differential:

Caleb Jones has stepped forward in all ways, including an NHL recall. It’s important to note just how much he has improved year over year. Massive tell and my guess is that he’s probably going to be an ask in trade here leading up to the deadline. Ethan Bear took some time to get going this year due to injury but is now delivering similar numbers to one year ago. A third prospect, William Lagesson, also shows well and I believe the Oilers are going to have to sign Logan Day. Seriously. Now, let’s have a look at Rodgers’ numbers from last season:

The goal differential for Jones year over year (-14 to +10) is monumental, while Bear (-8 to +9) isn’t far behind. Both men saw an increase in icetime and Jones offense spiked (Bear remains the same in offensive output).

You never know, and it’s always best to assume just one out of three prospects makes it (remember our conversation of 12 years ago surrounding Jeff Petry, Taylor Chorney and Cody Wild). It’s also true that all of Jones, Bear and Lagesson are trending well. This Logan Day fellow also has a “Jordan Oesterle-Brad Hunt” vibe about him. Just saying.

TYSON BARRIE

His name is being mentioned as a possible trade item, I doubt the Oilers will have interest but that could change come summer. Evan Bouchard, Ethan Bear and Joel Persson will be pushing for NHL work in the fall, but each will be better suited to third pairing work with Andrej Sekera as mentor. If the new general manager could find a way to offload Kris Russell, Barrie would be an excellent one-year rental (he is $5.5 million AAV on a contract that expires summer 2020) option.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fun Friday with guests being added by the minute. Scheduled to appear:

  • Steve Lansky, Big Mouth Sports. We’ll chat Hockey Day in Canada and the Oilers.
  • Ryan Holt, Bakersfield Condors PBP announcer. The Condors are on an incredible streak, we’ll chat about all the things that are going right.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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202 Responses to "Wouldn’t it be Nice"

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  1. Jethro Tull says:

    I was really liking the majority of the 5×5 game the last 3 games with the big 3 as centers. Not getting caved in possession and such. But I guess this team loves putzing around for 45 seconds on the ice then kicking back and watching Connor and Leon try to outscore the opposition.

  2. dcsj says:

    I heard Hitchcock say something like “this is the way the team has to play because that’s the way the team is built right now” — kind of a commentary on Chiarelli’s handiwork?

  3. Nit64 says:

    4 points out of 8 since the ASB. 1 pt below Bettman .500 for the whole season. They sure know how to be consistently mediocre.

  4. 719 says:

    A win is a win.

    Logan day is a guy who doesn’t turn 25 until next year. Played a few years in college, so its only his second AHL season, definitely a guy to keep as a depth option.

    McDavid moves into second overall for points. Draisatl 7th. Nugent Hopkins 41st.

    Nurse quietly moves into 27th in dman scoring.

  5. Nit64 says:

    719: Nurse quietly moves into 27th in dman scoring.

    Bridge deal gonna burn. Thanks Looch. Thanks Pete.

  6. Richard S.S. says:

    Oilers win. But just watch, the complainers don’t care. Fun game just the same.

  7. Munny says:

    I was surprised they didn’t give Talbot 1st star last night.

  8. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Western Conference Playoff Standings using Points Percentage shown as points over/under fake Bettman .500

    Pacific
    CGY 19
    SJS 16
    VGK 10

    Central
    WPG 17
    NSH 14
    DAL 7

    Wildcard
    STL 3
    MIN 3

    Out of Playoffs
    COL 0
    VAN 0
    EDM -1
    CHI -2
    ARI -3
    ANA -4
    LAK -4

    Relevant games tonight: None

    EDM needs to win 5 more games than STL or MIN to get in .

    Possible. Not probable.

    Will be interesting to watch MIN now that Koivu is out.

    That’s like BOS losing Bergeron, but worse as there’s less cover on MIN than BOS.

    I think STL will make it comfortably and might pass DAL.

  9. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    EDM Goal Share after 54 games (24-25-5)

    Even strength (5v5, 4v4, 3v3):
    McDavid On Ice 56-49 (53%)
    McDavid Off Ice 50-72 (41%)
    EV= -15

    Special Teams (PP+SH For-PK+SH Against):
    41-44
    ST= -3

    Empty Net: (all 5v6 & 5v6)
    7-13
    EN= -6

    SO & PS
    3-1

    SO/PS= +2

    Net Goal Differential -22

  10. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    HITCHCOCK ERA
    EDM Goal Share after 34 games (15-15-4)

    Even strength (5v5,4v4,3v3)
    McDavid On Ice 36-35 (51%)
    McDavid Off Ice 32-44 (42%)
    Net EV -11

    Sp. Teams (PP+SH For–PK+SH Against)
    24-25
    Net ST -1

    Empty Net
    5-8
    Net EN -3

    SO & PS
    3-1
    SO & PS=+2

    Net Goal Differential -13

  11. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Eastern Conference Playoff Standings using Points Percentage shown as points over/under fake Bettman .500

    Atlantic
    TBY 28
    TOR 16
    MTL 13

    Metropolitan
    NYI 15
    WSH 12
    CBJ 10

    Wildcard
    BOS 12
    PIT 9

    Out of playoffs
    BUF 6
    CAR 6
    PHI 1
    NYR 1
    FLA 0
    DET -5
    NJD -5
    OTT -9

  12. 106 and 106 says:

    This is the best playoff race ever. The ultimate battle of ineptitude and the winner goes to the dance.

    Gotta bet on this horse.

    But STL looks good right now.

  13. Jordan says:

    106 and 106:
    This is the best playoff race ever. The ultimate battle of ineptitude and the winner goes to the dance.

    Shall we montage the WC Playoff race?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PX0xi9tpBRI

  14. ArmchairGM says:

    They’re going to do what they did last year- a late season run when they playoffs are unlikely. The only thing this does is make the draft position worse.

  15. dustrock says:

    Not going to win many games with possession stats like that.

    Nurse and Russell are just unreal. 25%.

  16. Andy Dufresne says:

    Guess who?

    Based on this recent (Dec 2018) press clipping, can you guess who the player is?

    “He has so much patience and poise with the puck that he makes the game look easy out there, almost a bit too easy. He maybe looks a little bit nonchalante.”

    “He came in and had an excellent training camp, he was one of our last cuts. He made it really difficult for us to be able to cut him. We felt there were lots of parts of his game that he could play in the NHL now. He has tremendous hockey sense, poised with the puck, he’s a very competitive guy and I think you see that in the season he’s having in junior. He’s really been a dominant player.”

  17. Jethro Tull says:

    106 and 106:
    This is the best playoff race ever. The ultimate battle of ineptitude and the winner goes to the dance.

    Gotta bet on this horse.

    But STL looks good right now.

    Hey Bettman, this is what real parity looks like! Where is your god now?

    Pretty sure Gary had a vision of every game where it’s 6-5 and screaming fans and fantastic plays to win two points.

  18. Jethro Tull says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Guess who?

    Based on this recent (Dec 2018) press clipping, can you guess who the player is?

    “He has so much patience and poise with the puck that he makes the game look easy out there, almost a bit too easy. He maybe looks a little bit nonchalante.”

    “He came in and had an excellent training camp, he was one of our last cuts. He made it really difficult for us to be able to cut him. We felt there were lots of parts of his game that he could play in the NHL now. He has tremendous hockey sense, poised with the puck, he’s a very competitive guy and I think you see that in the season he’s having in junior. He’s really been a dominant player.”

    Robbie Schremp?

  19. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    His name is being mentioned as a possible trade item, I doubt the Oilers will have interest but that could change come summer. Evan Bouchard, Ethan Bear and Joel Persson will be pushing for NHL work in the fall, but each will be better suited to third pairing work with Andrej Sekera as mentor. If the new general manager could find a way to offload Kris Russell, Barrie would be an excellent one-year rental (he is $5.5 million AAV on a contract that expires summer 2020) option.

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Nurse-Barrie
    Sekera-Bouchard/Bear/Jones

    That looks like an Actual NHL Dcorps.

    Make it happen New Shiny GM That We Don’t Hate Yet.

  20. Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR says:

    I think it’s safe to say that STL will be making the playoffs now that they’re finally playing up to their potential. Oilers have just as good a chance as the rest of the bunch though, and Klefbom might put them over the top.

    But it’s unbelievable that all these teams are just meandering around in the same pack and are still in the race.

  21. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    dcsj:
    I heard Hitchcock say something like “this is the way the team has to play because that’s the way the team is built right now” — kind of a commentary on Chiarelli’s handiwork?

    I heard that too.

    That’s exactly what he means.

  22. GP Oiler Fan says:

    Jethro Tull,

    Macloed?

  23. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    dustrock:
    Not going to win many games with possession stats like that.

    Nurse and Russell are just unreal.25%.

    Lots of score effects in there.

    MIN had 13 more corsis when EDM made it 2-0, then ended the night with 34 more corsis

  24. slopitch says:

    I like the Barrie suggestion. Would have a hard time doing it when they need to free up 2 mill for Sekera already. Nurse + Russell for Barrie? I dunno enough about how close Persson is. Bouchard should get AHL time next year so I dont consider him a factor. Oilers need to move 5-8 million of next years salary or its time to get the cheque book out Mr Katz (its buyout season).

  25. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Andy Dufresne: He has so much patience and poise with the puck that he makes the game look easy out there, almost a bit too easy. He maybe looks a little bit nonchalante.”

    “He came in and had an excellent training camp, he was one of our last cuts. He made it really difficult for us to be able to cut him. We felt there were lots of parts of his game that he could play in the NHL now. He has tremendous hockey sense, poised with the puck, he’s a very competitive guy and I think you see that in the season he’s having in junior. He’s really been a dominant player

    Ty Smith.

    He might turn out to be the 2nd or 3rd best Dman in that draft class.

    Dahlin is crazy good today, we’ll see how Smith, Hughes, Boqvist, Bouchard and Dobson turn out, but I bet on skating ability + hockey sense every time and Smith/Hughes are top end.

  26. PokeCheck says:

    Hey LT, Could you please add a login link to the main nav? Having to fight my way to the bottom of yesterday’s post in order to view today’s is becoming a drag.

  27. Andy Dufresne says:

    Now that we’re back on a winning streak (1 and 0 in our last one game) ~back to being buyers at the deadline~.

    In our price range and without giving up the 1st overall, but would have to give up a good prospect +.

    Ryan Dzingle, 26 yrs old, 20 goal scorer, 40 pt winger on an expiring contract.

    Ottawa owner Eugene Melnyk on the record that a rebuild is underway that is targeting the 2021-2025 period.

  28. Andy Dufresne says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Ty Smith.

    He might turn out to be the 2nd or 3rd best Dman in that draft class.

    Dahlin is crazy good today, we’ll see how Smith, Hughes, Boqvist, Bouchard and Dobson turn out, but I bet on skating ability + hockey sense every time and Smith/Hughes are top end.

    Wow! Youre good.

    I thought the “nonchaleant” would be a curve ball leading many to Evan Bouchard.

  29. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Andy Dufresne: Wow! Youre good.

    I thought the “nonchaleant” would be a curve ball leading many to Evan Bouchard.

    GoogleFu FTW

  30. northof51 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Ty Smith.

    He might turn out to be the 2nd or 3rd best Dman in that draft class.

    Dahlin is crazy good today, we’ll see how Smith, Hughes, Boqvist, Bouchard and Dobson turn out, but I bet on skating ability + hockey sense every time and Smith/Hughes are top end.

    Get off my lawn!

  31. Andy Dufresne says:

    Woodguy v2.0: GoogleFu FTW

    Well…..Smart is a key ingredient in good 🙂

    I once worked under a plant manager who told me “lazy” was a virtue.

    He said, “give me the smart lazy guy, he’ll find a way to get it done without undue expense; Its like hes programmed to find the shortcuts.”

    Edit: I had a lucrative career based on Smart, Lazy, Paranoia/Fear. Not necessarily in that order.

  32. ArmchairGM says:

    dustrock:
    Not going to win many games with possession stats like that.

    Nurse and Russell are just unreal.25%.

    Score effects.

  33. Professor Q says:

    dcsj:
    I heard Hitchcock say something like “this is the way the team has to play because that’s the way the team is built right now” — kind of a commentary on Chiarelli’s handiwork?

    “Sounds like a shot at Tavares.”

  34. Professor Q says:

    ArmchairGM: Score effects.

    THX, Colby Cave Digital?

  35. dcsj says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I heard that too.

    That’s exactly what he means.

    That being the case, I think the problem is that it is hard to keep up the style of play required, since the horses aren’t quite good enough to play the required style.

  36. Andy Dufresne says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Ty Smith.

    He might turn out to be the 2nd or 3rd best Dman in that draft class.

    Dahlin is crazy good today, we’ll see how Smith, Hughes, Boqvist, Bouchard and Dobson turn out, but I bet on skating ability + hockey sense every time and Smith/Hughes are top end.

    Going to be a fascinating re-draft 5 years from now.

  37. Jethro Tull says:

    Andy Dufresne: Well…..Smart is a key ingredient in good 🙂

    I once worked under a plant manager who told me “lazy” was a virtue.

    He said, “give me the smart lazy guy, he’ll find a way to get it done without undue expense; Its like hes programed to find the shortcuts.”

    Edit: I had a lucrative career based on Smart, Lazy, Paranoia/Fear. Not necessarily in that order.

    You’ve hit upon a psychological phenomenon that does sadly afflict many in hockey and it has to do with how we were raised.

    It is personified in the Russell Effect(TM). Blocked shots are valued. Hard work is valued. So a defender who does nothing but work hard (it doesn’t matter at what, we’re talking quantity of effort) and block shots must be highly valued, right? But when we dig deeper we find that if you’re blocking shots, you don’t have the puck and the opposition might have a HDSC. We also find they work hatd at things that we really don’t want them doing.

    This comes from a dichotomy that what’s good is good and what’s bad is bad. So give me that smart, “lazy” (quotations because economy of effort is NOT laziness) player. Give me the Ales Hemskys of the league. Please.

  38. russ99 says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Sekera next year as even close to Sekera before the injury is a pretty poor assumption.

    IMO Getting Sekera back on the ice this year is for trade value this summer, not so much for the future.
    Russell on the third pair left side of would be a good stopgap and he’d be more tradeable at the next deadline when a kid from Bakersfield is ready to step in.

  39. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    dcsj: That being the case, I think the problem is that it is hard to keep up the style of play required, since the horses aren’t quite good enough to play the required style.

    Exactly.

    Can’t play run and gun without the guns.

    So play Katy-bar-the-door and hope to cash on your chances.

    “Gets pucks deep and hammer their Dmen” type of zone entries unless 97/93/29 are on the ice.

    Similar to Carlyle in TOR and Hartley in CGY/COL.

    Thing is that McLellan had the roster at reasonable CF% and it also spiked under Hitch to start.

    I think they’re more worried about the volume of grade A chances that they give up more than anything.

  40. Litke 94 says:

    Darnell Nurse has been making this observer very happy as of late. Haven’t loved his work in the D-Zone as of late, but in my opinion, Russell has had a lot to do with that.

    Where he has been stellar is in his excellent play in the offensive zone. Not only is he getting better at making the smart pass (especially seen on the PP), but his line control has been excellent. Watching him last night and it was clear that his offensive instincts are starting to really tune in.

    Multiple times last night he was reading the play perfectly while it was deep in the corner, and worked his way to either a spot on the blue line to take a pass, or to the boards to prevent clearing attempt.

    What a treat to see Darnell taking these steps. The extra PP time in Klef’s absence has been a blessing in terms of allowing Darnell to fine tune this aspect of his game. Give him a more stable partner, and boy, we’re off to the races.

  41. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    russ99:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Sekera next year as even close to Sekera before the injury is a pretty poor assumption.

    IMO Getting Sekera back on the ice this year is for trade value this summer, not so much for the future.
    Russell on the third pair left side of would be a good stopgap and he’d be more tradeable at the next deadline when a kid from Bakersfield is ready to step in.

    I agree that Sekera being Sekera again is an assumption.

    I disagree that its a poor one.

    If I thought he’d be 16/17 Sekera, I’d have him in the 2nd pair.

    If Sekera can’t play then Russell would be ok there, but one of them has to go to free up cap.

  42. Oilman99 says:

    slopitch:
    I like the Barrie suggestion. Would have a hard time doing it when they need to free up 2 mill for Sekera already. Nurse + Russell for Barrie?I dunno enough about how close Persson is. Bouchard should get AHL time next year so I dont consider him a factor. Oilers need to move 5-8 million of next years salary or its time to get the cheque book out Mr Katz (its buyout season).

    Due to cap hell, pursuit of any of the shiny top end d-men is a pipe dream.

  43. Sierra says:

    Woodguy v2.0:

    I think they’re more worried about the volume of grade A chances that they give up more than anything.

    For sure, something about winning 1-0

  44. dustrock says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Lots of score effects in there.

    MIN had 13 more corsis when EDM made it 2-0, then ended the night with 34 more corsis

    Oh mos def. I just cringe at the Nurse-Russell pairing in general. Score effects aside, that’s getting caved.

    And wasn’t it our own LT who was trumpeting Ty Smith very early on last season?

  45. russ99 says:

    Jethro Tull,

    Please prove this using HDSC.

    Reducing shot quality between the tops of the circles to the goal line has value. Get well soon Ricki the Bear, you articulate and prove this better than anyone else.

    Pinching at the point and trying to stop entry:

    a. Still gives up 30 shots a night
    b. Requires forwards to rotate and cover, which we saw for the first time since I can’t rememer last night. This roster is especially poor at this.

    I’d say the Corsi zone denial theorem allows more quality chances because when the opposition enters the zone they’re facing players with less aptitude at covering one on one and clearing the crease.

    Can’t wait until chip data renders this Corsi-driven ideal that denying the zone, stretch passes and rush chances are the only way to succeed as bunk.

    Don’t get me wrong, shot data has value but it has vastly
    more value at the offensive end of the ice. You can’t distill a number involving 10 skaters to point at a defensman and say he’s good or bad at defense, case in point: Matt Benning.

  46. doritogrande says:

    Nurse-Russell…They both need Sekera.

    But who gets him upon return? Based on our assumed LH/RH paring we get:

    77-6
    2-5
    25-83

    Interchange the bottom two however you feel our “Top-4” should look, but I see one Top-4 pair and a couple of, well not quite bottom pair but there’s no way to tell which is obviously the better pair.

    Nurse is probably our 3rd best defenseman on paper, but he’s struggled with both 6 and 2 recently. Shame one of him or Sekera can’t switch sides and still be effective; that’s your best alignment for a true Top-4 situation.

  47. Sierra says:

    Woodguy v2.0:

    If Sekera can’t play then Russell would be ok there, but one of them has to go to free up cap.

    For sure one of the two salaries has to go.

    Also, one of Nurse & Russell has to get off the second pairing, ideally Russell is on the third pairing next season if he’s with the Oilers.

  48. Jethro Tull says:

    russ99:
    Jethro Tull,

    Please prove this using HDSC.

    Reducing shot quality between the circles has value.

    Pinching at the point and trying to stop entry:

    a. Still gives up 30 shots a night
    b. Requires forwards to rotate and cover, which we saw for the first time since I can’t rememer last night.

    I’d say the Corsi zone denial theorem allows more quality chances because when the opposition enters the zone they’re facing players with less aptitude at covering one on one and clearing the crease.

    Can’t wait until chip data renders this Corsi-driven ideal that denying the zone, stretch passes and rush chances are the only way to succeed as bunk.

    Yah, I think you’ve missed the crux of what I’m trying to say. I was discussing why some “hard workers” are ineffective, no matter how hard they work and some “lazy workers” are effective, despite being perceived as expending little effort. Giving up a HDSC is but one of a myriad of possible outcomes for misdirected effort.

    I am NOT trawling data to prove a thought exercise. I am going to play squash, go to Peace River Brewing, have a pint and then pick up a pissed off cat from the vets. It’s the lazy way.

  49. BONE207 says:

    Andy Dufresne: Well…..Smart is a key ingredient in good

    I once worked under a plant manager who told me “lazy” was a virtue.

    He said, “give me the smart lazy guy, he’ll find a way to get it done without undue expense; Its like hes programmed to find the shortcuts.”

    Edit: I had a lucrative career based on Smart, Lazy, Paranoia/Fear. Not necessarily in that order.

    So you’re saying that Draisatl is doing it right?

  50. Psyche says:

    Condors site says there’s a “Hockey Talk” with Keith Gretzky tonight from 6-6:30. It’s with Holty for Condors 365, which appears to be a fan package.

    https://www.bakersfieldcondors.com

  51. Ryan says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I heard that too.

    That’s exactly what he means.

    Well, he also said early in his tenure that the Oilers weren’t going to beat teams on the basis of skill. I think that was an indictment on the roster construction as well. Later McDavid echoed the same sentiments.

  52. pts2pndr says:

    Nit64: Bridge deal gonna burn. Thanks Looch. Thanks Pete.

    There were a large number of our community that were adamant about a bridge deal for Nurse as I recall!

  53. dustrock says:

    Andy Dufresne: Well…..Smart is a key ingredient in good

    I once worked under a plant manager who told me “lazy” was a virtue.

    He said, “give me the smart lazy guy, he’ll find a way to get it done without undue expense; Its like hes programmed to find the shortcuts.”

    Edit: I had a lucrative career based on Smart, Lazy, Paranoia/Fear. Not necessarily in that order.

    Reminds me of one of my all-time favorite quotes:

    “As an immerser I progressed to the ranks I aspired to—those that granted me a certain cachet and income while keeping me from fundamental responsibilities. This is what I excelled at: the life-technique of aggregated skill, luck, laziness and chutzpah that we call floaking.”
    ― China Miéville, Embassytown

  54. hunter1909 says:

    ArmchairGM: The only thing this does is make the draft position worse.

    Given the absolute ineptitude of Oiler’s management to run the team properly, draft position has little effect on the outcome – they’re so stupid they’re always going to be able to figure out a way for the Oilers to be terrible.

  55. Munny says:

    Ryan: Well, he also said early in his tenure that the Oilers weren’t going to beat teams on the basis of skill. I think that was an indictment on the roster construction as well. Later McDavid echoed the same sentiments.

    I think it is also an indictment of the players’ willingness to cheat for OHHH… myGORDthatisabreaktheotherway.

  56. hunter1909 says:

    pts2pndr: There were a large number of our community that were adamant about a bridge deal for Nurse as I recall!

    Better to pay a little more after the player establishes themself than the Oiler’s way of paying 6 million and now 8.5 million for “potential”.

    Besides, it’s so cowardly trying to tie players up before they get a chance to try to leave Edmonton, lol.

  57. pts2pndr says:

    russ99:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Sekera next year as even close to Sekera before the injury is a pretty poor assumption.

    IMO Getting Sekera back on the ice this year is for trade value this summer, not so much for the future.
    Russell on the third pair left side of would be a good stopgap and he’d be more tradeable at the next deadline when a kid from Bakersfield is ready to step in.

    I would argue the correct play if it is possible is to move both Sekera and Russel in the off season and use the cap money for a legitimate second pairing RD. Any one of Jones Lagesson or Gravel will be fine on the third pairing at an appropriate cap hit!

  58. pts2pndr says:

    BONE207: So you’re saying that Draisatl is doing it right?

    It is very disturbing that so many on this site crap on aurguably the second best player on this team. I do have a soft spot for Nuge!

  59. godot10 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    HITCHCOCK ERA
    EDM Goal Share after 34 games (15-15-4)

    Even strength (5v5,4v4,3v3)
    McDavid On Ice 36-35 (51%)
    McDavid Off Ice 32-44 (42%)
    Net EV -11

    Sp. Teams (PP+SH For–PK+SH Against)
    24-25
    Net ST -1

    Empty Net
    5-8
    Net EN -3

    SO & PS
    3-1
    SO & PS=+2

    Net Goal Differential -13

    I think we need another category or two. Not that I’m asking. It is merely rhetorical musing.

    McDavid with Klefbom in the lineup. McDavid without Klefbom in the lineup. For each coach.

    Klefbom might be the MVP of the league! -). The only time Sweden won the World Junior Championship was with Klefbom.

    #BeingOscarKlefbom

    Klefbom. Klefbom, Klefbom, Klefbom. Klefbom.

  60. Ryan says:

    pts2pndr: I would argue the correct play if it is possible is to move both Sekera and Russel in the off season and use the cap money for a legitimate second pairing RD. Any one of Jones Lagesson or Gravel will be fine on the third pairing at an appropriate cap hit!

    You must spend your spare time pushing boulders up mountains. 🙂

    Moving both Sekera and Russell without taking cap or bad contracts back this off season would be very desirable but quite unrealistic.

  61. godot10 says:

    PokeCheck:
    Hey LT, Could you please add a login link to the main nav? Having to fight my way to the bottom of yesterday’s post in order to view today’s is becoming a drag.

    Stay logged in. You only have to do it once a week then.

  62. pts2pndr says:

    hunter1909: Better to pay a little more after the player establishes themself than the Oiler’s way of paying 6 million and now 8.5 million for “potential”.

    Besides, it’s so cowardly trying to tie players up before they get a chance to try to leave Edmonton, lol.

    I think it can be reasonably aurgued that both Draisaitl and McDavid contracts are already value contracts and the value only increases. Long term deals for players in their UFA years tend to be extremely costly at a time when the players abilities are starting to slide. This renders them untradeable and Cap killers please see ( Milan Lucic)! The contracts awarded Nuge,Eberly and Hall while not value contracts have been for the most part good value. All three at their cap hit were and or, are moveable!

  63. Munny says:

    godot10: Stay logged in.You only have to do it once a week then.

    The site doesn’t let you stay logged in. It will log you off randomly. And people use more than one device to access the site, plus laptops etc do need re-booting, which is an automatic log-off.

  64. Jaxon says:

    If Nurse can keep this pace (22 pts in the last 27 games) even though Klefbom is back, he would finish with 51 points. That pace over 82 games would be 67 points.

  65. godot10 says:

    pts2pndr: There were a large number of our community that were adamant about a bridge deal for Nurse as I recall!

    There were some of us adamantly that tying up Nurse long term was the proper course of action.

  66. pts2pndr says:

    Ryan: You must spend your spare time pushing boulders up mountains.

    Moving both Sekera and Russell without taking cap or bad contracts back this off season would be very desirable but quite unrealistic.

    What you say is very true. What we need to find out first is what we have in Sekera when he returns. It is very difficult in any sport to return close to your former skill level after almost two full seasons away. There is also a certain age factor. Four million plus for a third pairing D is over the top regardless if it is Sekera or Russel. This overpay is of Lucic proportion and in some ways more egregious in that we have young guys that can do the job for far less money! The somewhat sad reality of the situation is there are no good solutions!

  67. pts2pndr says:

    godot10: There were some of us adamantly that tying up Nurse long term was the proper course of action.

    Yes but as I remember we were the minority or possibly a fairly silent majority !✌️

  68. Andy Dufresne says:

    dustrock: Reminds me of one of my all-time favorite quotes:

    “As an immerser I progressed to the ranks I aspired to—those that granted me a certain cachet and income while keeping me from fundamental responsibilities. This is what I excelled at: the life-technique of aggregated skill, luck, laziness and chutzpah that we call floaking.”
    ― China Miéville, Embassytown

    Awesome quote/reference. Thank you for that.

  69. Alpine says:

    Wow, McDavid’s solo numbers (basically w/o Nuge or Draisaitl) have absolutely cratered in the last month. Or have they been bad all season?

    McDavid w/29: 49.9 CF%, 57.6 GF%, 1041 PDO
    McDavid w/93: 51.9 CF%, 46.8 GF%, 981 PDO
    McDavid w/o both: 46.6 CF%, 38.6 GF %, 986 PDO

    Sorry, there’s some rounding errors there. But what the fuck… That’s just… wow. Doesn’t look elite at all.

    McDavid should be a guarantee to be above 50% in CF + GF, even without those guys.

    Last year McDavid was 52.9 CF% and 53.2 GF% with 1007 PDO, in over 400 minutes away from 29 and 93. Klef was hobbled last year too. What is Hitch doing?

  70. Dr. Taboggan says:

    Alpine,

    Yeah most of the fancies for the team and individual players look real bad under Hitch. I mean Klef has been injured for 20 games but still. I really thought Hitch would lead to at least marginal improvement but this team has really cratered.

  71. jp says:

    russ99:
    Jethro Tull,

    Please prove this using HDSC.

    How’s this?

    Russell’s HDCF% and rank among Oilers D who’ve played at least half of the teams games:
    16-17 48.9% (6th of 6)
    17-18 49.4% (5th of 6)
    18-19 45.3% (4th of 6)

    Not exactly proof, but the HDSCs don’t like him much more than Corsi does.

  72. ashley says:

    If I recall, Petry, Plante, Peckham were the three farm hands you suggested among which one might make it.

  73. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Great game , the challenge is have two in a row!

    There is a very high chance even with SNGM (TWDHY) there will be a rookie at 3RD if not to start then not long in.

    The talent level and closeness of Bouchard Bear and maybe Persson with the low cap hit will be hard to pass and maybe a necessity, especially if they bring in a paid forward.

    Sekera we’ll know about soon enough. He can mentor a rookie and the lower minutes would be good for him. Persson and Bear are not big and Bouchard isn’t physical, but Sekera has shown he can be effective with whomever because he’s so good.

    I haven’t been a Russell fan, admire his drive, but like him less than ever. Small players need great wheels. I find Russell can’t really do anything helpful now. He allows entry, can’t get the puck on the boards, doesn’t make effective passes and doesn’t carry the puck out.

    He also isn’t good net front, and if he’s with a smaller or non physical partner there’ll be troubles.

    Maybe they have to move both, I’d keep Sekera of the two assuming he’s not done. Find a competent 2RD, if there is a vet at 3LD I’d use a lefty from the farm as 7D.

    It may have to be Manning because term. If not get a player there that can skate well enough and pass. Jones, Lagesson, the like. Let the farm start to populate the team. In another year Sekera can go.

    Jones looked good, but with another young partner if that happens he’s not there yet IMO.

  74. BONE207 says:

    pts2pndr: It is very disturbing that so many on this site crap on aurguably the second best player on this team. I do have a soft spot for Nuge!

    I love them both. Nuge rarely looks like he’s slacking. Remember that Drai that retreived the puck in the O zone against the Avalanche , turned sharply with the defender on his back, shoved him down & then set up CONNOR for the winner? If he would do those kind of plays more, there would not be a single complaint. Maybe his shifts are too long for his body type..

  75. Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR says:

    Dr. Taboggan: CAPE

    I actually thought Hitch would be tightening up the team defence, and that in turn the goaltending numbers would improve. Not so much.

  76. JimmyV1965 says:

    Alpine:
    Wow, McDavid’s solo numbers (basically w/o Nuge or Draisaitl) have absolutely cratered in the last month. Or have they been bad all season?

    McDavid w/29: 49.9 CF%, 57.6 GF%, 1041 PDO
    McDavid w/93: 51.9 CF%, 46.8 GF%, 981 PDO
    McDavid w/o both: 46.6 CF%, 38.6 GF %, 986 PDO

    Sorry, there’s some rounding errors there. But what the fuck… That’s just… wow. Doesn’t look elite at all.

    McDavid should be a guarantee to be above 50% in CF + GF, even without those guys.

    Last year McDavid was 52.9 CF% and 53.2 GF% with 1007 PDO, in over 400 minutes away from 29 and 93. Klef was hobbled last year too. What is Hitch doing?

    McDavid isn’t actually Jesus in real life. Even the best player on the planet needs to play with some modicum of skill. And people wonder why Drai can’t drive his own line.

  77. russ99 says:

    Ryan,

    Russell is way more movable next deadline with a year left on his contract and lessened trade protection. May be able to do it for a pick and a near NHL prospect.

    Plus we should have more than one option in Bakersfield knocking at the door by then.

    The only reason I see this being an issue is the already mentioned expansion draft issues, but IMO NHL GMs prefer his player type/playing style so that would be minimized, kind of a help my team win now and worry about the expanion draft later.

  78. digger50 says:

    Andy Dufresne: Wow! Youre good.

    I thought the “nonchaleant” would be a curve ball leading many to Evan Bouchard.

    It had me leaning that way- but I knew it was a trick!

    Sigh

    Just dam depressing if the Oil finally take this top producing junior d man and he fizzles. Lord I hope not. I hope he finds another gear for the NHL

  79. digger50 says:

    I’ll give Russel some love today. That kid is tough as nails.

  80. digger50 says:

    JimmyV1965: McDavid isn’t actually Jesus in real life.

    Huh?

  81. OriginalPouzar says:

    I’ve been trumpeting the new found depth of the prospect pool.

    In addition to the Bakersfield trio, we have Bouchard and Samorukov as real prospects (Sami a few years away) and even Berglund. Not sure Persson should be classified as a prospect in this cluster given age but he’s in the convo for a job.

    There doesn’t seem to be much high end potential other than Bouchard but you never know. Players pop out of nowhere for other teams, it may be our turn? Maybe Jones pops or Samorukov. They both have great skill sets.

    Anyways, point is, the group is deep – nope, not all will make it, probably less will than won’t, but there is a high chance there are a few real NHL players in there.

  82. JimmyV1965 says:

    digger50: Huh?

    I mean McDavid can’t walk on water and he can’t create offence with zero support. Even the greatest players need to play with someone who has an idea what to do with the puck when he gets it to them.

  83. JimmyV1965 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I’ve been trumpeting the new found depth of the prospect pool.

    In addition to the Bakersfield trio, we have Bouchard and Samorukov as real prospects (Sami a few years away) and even Berglund.Not sure Persson should be classified as a prospect in this cluster given age but he’s in the convo for a job.

    There doesn’t seem to be much high end potential other than Bouchard but you never know.Players pop out of nowhere for other teams, it may be our turn?Maybe Jones pops or Samorukov. They both have great skill sets.

    Anyways, point is, the group is deep – nope, not all will make it, probably less will than won’t, but there is a high chance there are a few real NHL players in there.

    I think this is the way to look at it. Instead of thinking we absolutely need Bouchard to pop, someone with his pedigree makes it more likely that one or two out of the entire group will become a substantial player. And just because he was drafted 10th doesn’t mean he should be developed differently than any other prospect. Send him to the AHL and his performance there will dictate when he makes the big club.

  84. PinkSocks says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I’ve been trumpeting the new found depth of the prospect pool.

    In addition to the Bakersfield trio, we have Bouchard and Samorukov as real prospects (Sami a few years away) and even Berglund.Not sure Persson should be classified as a prospect in this cluster given age but he’s in the convo for a job.

    There doesn’t seem to be much high end potential other than Bouchard but you never know.Players pop out of nowhere for other teams, it may be our turn?Maybe Jones pops or Samorukov. They both have great skill sets.

    Anyways, point is, the group is deep – nope, not all will make it, probably less will than won’t, but there is a high chance there are a few real NHL players in there.

    I was stunned watching some of Samorukov last week. Kid is the goods. It will be very interesting to see how it translates to pro hockey next year.

  85. PinkSocks says:

    JimmyV1965: McDavid isn’t actually Jesus in real life.

    You take that back!

  86. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    russ99,

    Agreed but we may not have to wait until next deadline. The NMC shifts into partial territory (ten team trade list) come July 1, is Russel valuable to another team at his pay and cap hit? Let’s take a look:

    According to Cap Friendly our man will get paid a full $4 million next year, but that drops to $2.5 million in 2020/2021 with $1 million of that being a signing bonus. His cap hit is $4 regardless.

    If the Oilers say eat $1 million in retained salary he’ll need to be paid a grand total of $4.5 million in actual cash for two years after July 1, 2019 and of that a paltry $1.5 million in 2020/2021.

    Depending on his trade list, he could be very dinkish on that front, a creative GM can move that contract with salary retained and $3 million in capspace would be very useful for our Oilers.

  87. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    russ99:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Sekera next year as even close to Sekera before the injury is a pretty poor assumption.

    IMO Getting Sekera back on the ice this year is for trade value this summer, not so much for the future.
    Russell on the third pair left side of would be a good stopgap and he’d be more tradeable at the next deadline when a kid from Bakersfield is ready to step in.

    If the Oilers can’t find a place for him due to his injuries, I doubt they can trade him

  88. who says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!:
    russ99,

    Agreed but we may not have to wait until next deadline. The NMC shifts into partial territory (ten team trade list) come July 1, is Russel valuable to another team at his pay and cap hit? Let’s take a look:

    According to Cap Friendly our man will get paid a full $4 million next year, but that drops to $2.5 million in 2020/2021 with $1 million of that being a signing bonus. His cap hit is $4 regardless.

    If the Oilers say eat $1 million in retained salary he’ll need to be paid a grand total of $4.5 million in actual cash for two years after July 1, 2019 and of that a paltry $1.5 million in 2020/2021.

    Depending on his trade list, he could be very dinkish on that front, a creative GM can move that contract with salary retained and $3 million in capspace would be very useful for our Oilers.

    Why is everyone in such a hurry to trade Russell?
    How about if we wait until we actually have at least 5 better dmen?

  89. CallighenMan says:

    godot10,

    still a pain and unnecessary. Very poor web design.

  90. Bill Clinternet says:

    ashley:
    If I recall, Petry, Plante, Peckham were the three farm hands you suggested among which one might make it.

    I believe what was stated back then was:

    From the cluster of Plante, Chorney and Cody Wild, 1 of the 3 would make it. Chorney played 166 games (close to 200), so you could argue they all fell short.

    Then a few years later there was a cluster of: Petry, Peckham and Tuebert, where Lowetide said history shows 1 of 3 would make it. Here I would say that prediction was spot on

  91. CallighenMan says:

    Alpine:
    Wow, McDavid’s solo numbers (basically w/o Nuge or Draisaitl) have absolutely cratered in the last month. Or have they been bad all season?

    McDavid w/29: 49.9 CF%, 57.6 GF%, 1041 PDO
    McDavid w/93: 51.9 CF%, 46.8 GF%, 981 PDO
    McDavid w/o both: 46.6 CF%, 38.6 GF %, 986 PDO

    Sorry, there’s some rounding errors there. But what the fuck… That’s just… wow. Doesn’t look elite at all.

    McDavid should be a guarantee to be above 50% in CF + GF, even without those guys.

    Last year McDavid was 52.9 CF% and 53.2 GF% with 1007 PDO, in over 400 minutes away from 29 and 93. Klef was hobbled last year too. What is Hitch doing?

    No, evn McDavid can’t lug around two AHL/NHL tweeners and dominate play. This isn’t basketball.

  92. ArmchairGM says:

    pts2pndr: Yes but as I remember we were the minority or possibly a fairly silent majority !

    As I recall Chiarelli was cap strung and couldn’t have signed Nurse long-term even if he had wanted to. There simply wasn’t enough space for it… and things like the Gryba solid were more important anyhow.

  93. Professor Q says:

    Alpine:
    Wow, McDavid’s solo numbers (basically w/o Nuge or Draisaitl) have absolutely cratered in the last month. Or have they been bad all season?

    McDavid w/29: 49.9 CF%, 57.6 GF%, 1041 PDO
    McDavid w/93: 51.9 CF%, 46.8 GF%, 981 PDO
    McDavid w/o both: 46.6 CF%, 38.6 GF %, 986 PDO

    Sorry, there’s some rounding errors there. But what the fuck… That’s just… wow. Doesn’t look elite at all.

    McDavid should be a guarantee to be above 50% in CF + GF, even without those guys.

    Last year McDavid was 52.9 CF% and 53.2 GF% with 1007 PDO, in over 400 minutes away from 29 and 93. Klef was hobbled last year too. What is Hitch doing?

    He’s been getting more PP points. Which is good.

    Especially compared to last season.

  94. CallighenMan says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I’ve been trumpeting the new found depth of the prospect pool.

    In addition to the Bakersfield trio, we have Bouchard and Samorukov as real prospects (Sami a few years away) and even Berglund.Not sure Persson should be classified as a prospect in this cluster given age but he’s in the convo for a job.

    There doesn’t seem to be much high end potential other than Bouchard but you never know.Players pop out of nowhere for other teams, it may be our turn?Maybe Jones pops or Samorukov. They both have great skill sets.

    Anyways, point is, the group is deep – nope, not all will make it, probably less will than won’t, but there is a high chance there are a few real NHL players in there.

    We had one and mgt were so stupid they didn’t even bother to sign him: Erik Gustafsson

  95. OriginalPouzar says:

    Draisaitl – McDavid – Rattie
    Lucic – RNH – Chiasson
    Cave – Malone – Kassian
    Rieder – Brodziak – Puljujarvi

    Klefbom – Larsson
    Nurse – Petrovic
    Manning – Gravel

    Talbot
    Koskinen

    Khaira & Russell not skating. Benning was out there briefly but left

  96. Psyche says:

    LT,

    There was a non-zero chance of the Jason’s understanding a non-zero chance.

    Great conversation between you three, as usual.

    I agree, if Talbot finishes the season strong (maybe gets the Oilers in the post-season) the Oilers will want to resign him for around $5 million x 3 or 4.

    I think there’s a non-zero chance that they move Koskinen by the summer.

  97. Ben says:

    JimmyV1965: I think this is the way to look at it. Instead of thinking we absolutely need Bouchard to pop, someone with his pedigree makes it more likely that one or two out of the entire group will become a substantial player. And just because he was drafted 10th doesn’t mean he should be developed differently than any other prospect. Send him to the AHL and his performance there will dictate when he makes the big club.

    HERESY! BLASPHEMY! IGNOMINY!

    (The Oilers have never done this so we must conclude it would never work.)

  98. Oiler_Kiwi97 says:

    Litke 94:
    Darnell Nurse has been making this observer very happy as of late. Haven’t loved his work in the D-Zone as of late, but in my opinion, Russell has had a lot to do with that.

    Where he has been stellar is in his excellent play in the offensive zone. Not only is he getting better at making the smart pass (especially seen on the PP), but his line control has been excellent. Watching him last night and it was clear that his offensive instincts are starting to really tune in.

    Multiple times last night he was reading the play perfectly while it was deep in the corner, and worked his way to either a spot on the blue line to take a pass, or to the boards to preventclearing attempt.

    What a treat to see Darnell taking these steps. The extra PP time in Klef’s absence has been a blessing in terms of allowing Darnell to fine tune this aspect of his game. Give him a more stable partner, and boy, we’re off to the races.

    Wow. Must be an anomaly. Nurse should be traded whilst his value is at his highest. His next contract will not be value for money. Just my tuppence worth.

  99. BONE207 says:

    JimmyV1965: I mean McDavid can’t walk on water

    He can damn well skate on it & he’s doing his best to salvage all of Oil country as well. Hell, he might even revive the corpse of Chia if current management are happy with a late surge & a final playoff spot. He still needs some divine intervention to help him but good goaltending, which is voodoo, is also a religion.

  100. Lowetide says:

    Psyche:
    LT,

    There was a non-zero chance of the Jason’s understanding a non-zero chance.

    Great conversation between you three, as usual.

    I agree, if Talbot finishes the season strong (maybe gets the Oilers in the post-season) the Oilers will want to reason him for around $5 million x 3 or 4.

    I think there’s a non-zero chance that they move Koskinen by the summer.

    Lol. I love those Friday chats.

  101. pts2pndr says:

    slopitch:
    I like the Barrie suggestion. Would have a hard time doing it when they need to free up 2 mill for Sekera already. Nurse + Russell for Barrie?I dunno enough about how close Persson is. Bouchard should get AHL time next year so I dont consider him a factor. Oilers need to move 5-8 million of next years salary or its time to get the cheque book out Mr Katz (its buyout season).

    Would be almost palatable if Barrie was signed for two more years but Nurse is a huge overpay. If Nurse is going as part of a trade there has to be a far better player comming back than Barrie!

  102. Alpine says:

    CallighenMan: No, evn McDavid can’t lug around two AHL/NHL tweeners and dominate play.This isn’t basketball.

    But he did in 2017-18. Did you see the numbers? Away from Drai and Nuge, he was above 50% in shot attempts and goals.

    The team is no worse last year. Is Pat Maroon that good that McDavid has dropped 8% or more by himself when there’s no Maroon to play with? He was a tweener before he got put with McDavid.

    I’m not criticizing McDavid here. I’m criticizing what the hell tactics the coach is using for McDavid to be nullified so much.

  103. pts2pndr says:

    BONE207: I love them both. Nuge rarely looks like he’s slacking. Remember that Drai that retreived the puck in the O zone against the Avalanche , turned sharply with the defender on his back, shoved him down & then set up CONNOR for the winner? If he would do those kind of plays more, there would not be a single complaint. Maybe his shifts are too long for his body type..

    I think sometimes people expect him to be Connor only in a bigger body! We may all be just a littled spoiled in that regard!

  104. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Psyche:
    LT,

    There was a non-zero chance of the Jason’s understanding a non-zero chance.

    Great conversation between you three, as usual.

    I agree, if Talbot finishes the season strong (maybe gets the Oilers in the post-season) the Oilers will want to reason him for around $5 million x 3 or 4.

    I think there’s a non-zero chance that they move Koskinen by the summer.

    Given that Pete isn’t running a team I’d say there is a zero chance any team takes on the Koskinen contract at full value.

  105. Alpine says:

    who,

    The team is capped out and can’t spend any money on improving the worst winger group in the league. Russel is the most moveable of the older players with term.

  106. Psyche says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Given that Pete isn’t running a team I’d say there is a zero chance any team takes on the Koskinen contract at full value.

    I completely agree. They’ll have to eat 30-40% of the contract (maybe more).

  107. pts2pndr says:

    digger50:
    I’ll give Russel some love today. That kid is tough as nails.

    Russel is pure blood and guts and always gives his best! As such he is the teams best option for second pairing right D. Because he is playing on his off side there are games where he is not adequate to cover that position. This is not on the player! His contract is too rich for third pairing and this is also not Russels fault!

  108. pts2pndr says:

    Oiler_Kiwi97: Wow. Must be an anomaly. Nurse should be traded whilst his value is at his highest. His next contract will not be value for money. Just my tuppence worth.

    With that kind of thinking we should probably move McDavid Draisaitl and Klefbom too! The prevailing thought is get good players keep good players!

  109. Scungilli Slushy says:

    BONE207: I love them both. Nuge rarely looks like he’s slacking. Remember that Drai that retreived the puck in the O zone against the Avalanche , turned sharply with the defender on his back, shoved him down & then set up CONNOR for the winner? If he would do those kind of plays more, there would not be a single complaint. Maybe his shifts are too long for his body type..

    Drai is a fantastic player, most still need to work on things, like Connor saying and developing his shot which is deadly now.

    Many don’t agree but to me he’s such a heavy legged skater he tires. He tried beating someone one on one yesterday and wasn’t even close – it was Spurgeon who actually pushed him over managing that at a 40 lb weight disadvantage.

    But Spurgeon is an elite skater and had the timing and balance to do it. I think Drai needs to train his legs like Connor and develop the muscles and strength that aren’t there for him.

    Vor has posted a lot about this. The right training would give him more explosiveness which would make him almost unstoppable IMO. Like I said about Connor developing his shot after his first year. I was so happy to hear him say it was his summer priority, and now defending him is impossible because he’s not just looking to pass first.

    I love Connor.

  110. pts2pndr says:

    ArmchairGM: As I recall Chiarelli was cap strung and couldn’t have signed Nurse long-term even if he had wanted to. There simply wasn’t enough space for it… and things like the Gryba solid were more important anyhow.

    They had room durring his final year but chose to spend elsewhere causing them to have to bridge Nurse.

  111. godot10 says:

    Bill Clinternet: I believe what was stated back then was:

    From the cluster of Plante, Chorney and Cody Wild, 1 of the 3 would make it. Chorney played 166 games (close to 200), so you could argue they all fell short.

    Then a few years later there was a cluster of: Petry, Peckham and Tuebert, where Lowetide said history shows 1 of 3 would make it.Here I would say that prediction was spot on

    It was Petry, Chorney, and Wild (the three US College guys). Not Plante (he came later). Petry made it big time. Nelson fixed Chorney as much as was possible, and got him a marginal NHL.career.

  112. leadfarmer says:

    If you are going to pay Nurse like a 50-60 point D you are going to be horribly disappointed
    A bridge was the right call on a guy that is a poor passer and not that good in his own end.
    This is a 30 point player that is running crazy hot

  113. Scungilli Slushy says:

    who: Why is everyone in such a hurry to trade Russell?
    How about if we wait until we actually have at least 5 better dmen?

    I think we do. He’s a black hole now for positive possession. If a player needs propping up I’d spend that time training a young player, not sheltering a vet on the precipice.

    Jones would be a better third pair now IMO. Mistakes and GA, but Russell is doing it anyway, no loss that way and potential for improvement.

    I don’t ‘dislike ‘ Russell but by eye and number he’s not helping anymore.

    Strong skating and the ability to move the puck are not optional anymore for quality D. Especially small ones.

  114. Bank Shot says:

    Scungilli Slushy,

    Jones was making way worse mistakes than Russel much more frequently.

  115. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Oilman99: Due to cap hell, pursuit of any of the shiny top end d-men is a pipe dream.

    I don’t think they need anything more than competent at 2 RD.

    They actually should only be looking for a placeholder. Right now that ‘hole’ isn’t competent and it’s causing mayhem.

    With three offense oriented good prospects acquiring anyone expensive means trading a quality prospect which if PC isn’t doing the deal might bring quality back, but it will lose the cap advantage of an ELC and possibly a bridge deal that helps bolster the rest of the roster.

  116. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Bank Shot:
    Scungilli Slushy,

    Jones was making way worse mistakes than Russel much more frequently.

    Playing well above where he should as a rookie. Russell has been culprit as much as a vet as jones has. With less TOI.

    It’s opinion, but I think jones or gravel or even Manning would do as well third pair, next season. Manning is not stable but he can actually make a pass. I hope they move him, but at least he is hard on the boards and net front.

    I see Russell chasing and losing battles everywhere and failing to move the puck. He’s supposed to not do that at 4M and experienced. Shot blocking is not a virtue to me. Excessive blocking means a failing player.

  117. jp says:

    Alpine:

    The team is no worse last year. Is Pat Maroon that good that McDavid has dropped 8% or more by himself when there’s no Maroon to play with? He was a tweener before he got put with McDavid.

    Maroon was at least a 0.5 ppg player with McDavid. And actually had decemt results away as well.

    I’m not sure there’s anyone aside from Drai, Nuge, and maybe Chiasson, of that caliber on the current roster. Have you looked at the Oilers stats lately?

  118. JimmyV1965 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Drai is a fantastic player, most still need to work on things, like Connor saying and developing his shot which is deadly now.

    Many don’t agree but to me he’s such a heavy legged skater he tires. He tried beating someone one on one yesterday and wasn’t even close – it was Spurgeon who actually pushed him over managing that at a 40 lb weight disadvantage.

    But Spurgeon is an elite skater and had the timing and balance to do it. I think Drai needs to train his legs like Connor and develop the muscles and strength that aren’t there for him.

    Vor has posted a lot about this. The right training would give him more explosiveness which would make him almost unstoppable IMO. Like I said about Connor developing his shot after his first year. I was so happy to hear him say it was his summer priority, and now defending him is impossible because he’s not just looking to pass first.

    I love Connor.

    I remember that play. I also remember the remarkable pass he made to RNH on the PK, which allowed RNH to clear the puck out of the dzone. Drai was battling someone for the puck along the wall, stuck out his ass to protect the puck, and somehow managed to curl a pass around the opposition player right onto RNHs stick. I must have rewatched that play five times. It wasn’t a huge play, but something truly magnificent. Drai is not McDavid and he’s not as good. But he can beat players in different ways that very few others can. He didn’t beat Spurgeon wide on that play. Maybe next time he does. I’m not trying to criticize your post because you make valid points, but Drai makes amazing plays almost every game.

  119. Bank Shot says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Playing well above where he should as a rookie. Russell has been culprit as much as a vet as jones has. With less TOI.

    It’s opinion, but I think jones or gravel or even Manning would do as well third pair, next season. Manning is not stable but he can actually make a pass. I hope they move him, but at least he is hard on the boards and net front.

    I see Russell chasing and losing battles everywhere and failing to move the puck. He’s supposed to not do that at 4M and experienced. Shot blocking is not a virtue to me. Excessive blocking means a failing player.

    I don’t care that Jones is a rookie. There is no guarantee that he gets better next season. \
    Just look at Puljujarvi running in place.

    Remember when Benning was going to eat Russell’s lunch this year?

    I wouldn’t be comfortable moving out Russell until someone pushes him off the roster.

    The Oilers actually have a pretty cheap D-core if you can keep Sekera on the LTIR and dump Benning/Manning somehow.

    I’d try to keep the best players on D and purge the bottom guys.

  120. hunter1909 says:

    pts2pndr: They had room durring his final year but chose to spend elsewhere causing them to have to bridge Nurse.

    An intelligent GM would have tried to offer Nurse 4 million for 8 years. Try turning that down. Don’t want it?Here’s your bridge deal for 2 lousy years, at less money.

    Nurse takes it, develops and Oilers have a crazy cost effective player. Nurse busts or doesn’t develop and its not the end of the world like 6 million Lucic seems to be(Okay so he’s not Taylor Hall).

  121. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    jp: Maroon was at least a 0.5 ppg player with McDavid. And actually had decemt results away as well.

    I’m not sure there’s anyone aside from Drai, Nuge, and maybe Chiasson, of that caliber on the current roster. Have you looked at the Oilers stats lately?

    Oo! Oo! How about…

    …Wait for it….

    .
    ..

    Jesse Puljujarvi

  122. Scungilli Slushy says:

    JimmyV1965: I remember that play. I also remember the remarkable pass he made to RNH on the PK, which allowed RNH to clear the puck out of the dzone. Drai was battling someone for the puck along the wall, stuck out his ass to protect the puck, and somehow managed to curl a pass around the opposition player right onto RNHs stick. I must have rewatched that play five times. It wasn’t a huge play, but something truly magnificent. Drai is not McDavid and he’s not as good. But he can beat players in different ways that very few others can. He didn’t beat Spurgeon wide on that play. Maybe next time he does. I’m not trying to criticize your post because you make valid points, but Drai makes amazing plays almost every game.

    Yes which is why I said he’s great, I’d say special. That shouldn’t preclude improvement especially in obviously weak areas.

    I used Connor as an example because he thought he should improve and he’s the best in the world.

    I also think the reason Drai struggles at C is he’s cheating because he is slow off the start. With a head of steam he’s fast, like Lucic.

    Connor cheats because he’s obsessed. He blew coverage and cost GAs. I think he’ll learn, it’s an attitude not a deficiency which I see Drais skating as.

  123. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Bank Shot: I don’t care that Jones is a rookie. There is no guarantee that he gets better next season. \
    Just look at Puljujarvi running in place.

    Remember when Benning was going to eat Russell’s lunch this year?

    I wouldn’t be comfortable moving out Russell until someone pushes him off the roster.

    The Oilers actually have a pretty cheap D-core if you can keep Sekera on the LTIR and dump Benning/Manning somehow.

    I’d try to keep the best players on D and purge the bottom guys.

    Fair enough.

    I think where we don’t agree is in what Russell is doing. I don’t see good vet coverage, I see a player running around getting beat everywhere. That is small, not fast, and can’t move the puck. To me that means anyone that can do some of those things better is a better choice. Especially if there is upside.

  124. Biggus Dickus says:

    Was thinking about Bouchard’s chances today. Have we ever had a good french name on this team? Bergeron is the best I can think of.

  125. Rebillled says:

    Psyche,

    It’s great how Koskinens’ new contract hasn’t even kicked in yet and we’re talking about retaining salary. Yeesh. So bad.

    Talbot had a good game but did get lucky on that Staal play. Choose your own misadventure if that goes in.

    Last night we played against a very bad Minny team. Ask their coach.

    Goilers!

  126. Glovjuice says:

    This is hilarious, LT:

    “It was also the best game the Oilers have played in a long time. Edmonton got fed in possession, and gave up many fabulous chances…”

    These two sentences are totally contradict each other.

  127. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Just saw a replay of Drouin beating Russell and then scoring.

    Russell couldn’t stop and turn with him, and then because he’s short his poke check (stick too short) didn’t reach the puck.

    I don’t care anymore how big or small, I want to see effective play. ‘Most’ players are a certain size weight because that’s what works best. There are few that have so much drive and ability they overcome it.

    The game also evolves. Most players have shorter careers. Russell’s calling card was his shot blocking and team first attitude. Now that isn’t enough because other teams have figured out skill and speed. Just like staged fighting is gone.

    Skating and passing, defending without holding and slashing aren’t optional anymore.

  128. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Biggus Dickus:
    Was thinking about Bouchard’s chances today. Have we ever had a good french name on this team? Bergeron is the best I can think of.

    Norm lacombe, Jacques plante

  129. jp says:

    Crazy Pedestrian: Oo! Oo! How about…

    …Wait for it….

    .
    ..

    Jesse Puljujarvi

    Given the dearth of other options it is remarkable that neither coach has given it more of a chance.

    That said, after 2/3 of a season the Oilers have 4 forwards with more than 16 points. That is desperately pathetic. 17-18 Maroon would be a genuinely meaningful addition.

  130. HT Joe says:

    Glovjuice: “It was also the best game the Oilers have played in a long time. Edmonton got fed in possession, and gave up many fabulous chances…”

    These two sentences are totally contradict each other.

    For a good team, these two sentences would contradict one another… but the Oilers? 😀

  131. CallighenMan says:

    Alpine: But he did in 2017-18. Did you see the numbers? Away from Drai and Nuge, he was above 50% in shot attempts and goals.

    The team is no worse last year. Is Pat Maroon that good that McDavid has dropped 8% or more by himself when there’s no Maroon to play with? He was a tweener before he got put with McDavid.

    I’m not criticizing McDavid here. I’m criticizing what the hell tactics the coach is using for McDavid to be nullified so much.

    Maroon was (is?) a far better player than either Reider or Rattie

  132. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Read your JP piece LT great as always.

    To me the biggest problem is square peg round hole.

    Jesse’s offense will come if they see what he is, and after what they’ve done enable him.

    To me he needs some coaching around shooting. The best shooters have some type of feint, many Oiler shooters simply shoot. Many don’t take time or can’t raise the puck or both.

    Doesn’t beat good goalies enough.

  133. OriginalPouzar says:

    My goodness Disney is exhausting. Well, 1am hotel arrival followed by 5am workout and then out the door st 7am leads to being done for the day at 6.

    Biggest plus: Condors’ game baby!

  134. OriginalPouzar says:

    I read so much about trading Sekera, hoping he spend the next 3 years on LTIR and even buying him out.

    The last two are absolutely egregious options.

    I’m going to sit back and actually see how this player looks over the next couple of months. He has been a wonderful d-man through his career, a very important piece of the Oilers and his absence has been huge in the team’s play the last couple of years.

    He will be back soon and he very well could be a material beneficial add to this team – sure, maybe he’s terrible but I’m going to actually wait an see until I suggest a buyout.

  135. Side says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    My goodness Disney is exhausting.Well, 1am hotel arrival followed by 5am workout and then out the door st 7am leads to being done for the day at 6.

    Biggest plus: Condors’ game baby!

    The more miles Woodcroft gets on that bus between AHL games, the stronger he gets.

  136. OriginalPouzar says:

    CallighenMan: We had one and mgt were so stupid they didn’t even bother to sign him: Erik Gustafsson

    Yup – this was also a d-man that was in the AHL at 26 years old after disappointing NHL results. He’s established himself as an NHL d-man (and seemingly a top 4) verging on 27 years of ago (he turns 27 in a month).

    To me, his non-signing, what four years ago, isn’t an egregious error but what this player does show is the different development paths of different players.

    Just like Dylan Strome’s breakout season at 21 (almost 22) after being in the AHL during his 20 year old season and having limited NHL success with middling teamates shows why Jesse Puljujarvi is far from a bust, Gustaffson shows why maybe, just maybe, the book isn’t closed on the ceiling of a guy like Nurse or the potential for a guy like Berglund or Persson.

  137. jtblack says:

    EDIT: may be repeat

    Just wanted to shout out to LT, WG, OP & the Entire crew.

    Adds value to everyday. Creates thought.

  138. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bank Shot: I don’t care that Jones is a rookie. There is no guarantee that he gets better next season. \
    Just look at Puljujarvi running in place.

    Remember when Benning was going to eat Russell’s lunch this year?

    I wouldn’t be comfortable moving out Russell until someone pushes him off the roster.

    The Oilers actually have a pretty cheap D-core if you can keep Sekera on the LTIR and dump Benning/Manning somehow.

    I’d try to keep the best players on D and purge the bottom guys.

    I’m not sure how one can reconcile wanting to keep the best players on D and wanting to keep Sekera on LTIR in the same sentence.

    Not even going to go in to, yet again, how crippling Sekera on LTIR for the next 3 years would be to trying to improve the team. Its dead cap space on the books until the season starts and then there is some relief – its highly restricting and a terrible way to manage the cap.

  139. CMcD4PM says:

    Biggus Dickus:
    Was thinking about Bouchard’s chances today. Have we ever had a good french name on this team? Bergeron is the best I can think of.

    Messier
    Damphousse

  140. OriginalPouzar says:

    hunter1909: An intelligent GM would have tried to offer Nurse 4 million for 8 years. Try turning that down. Don’t want it?Here’s your bridge deal for 2 lousy years, at less money.

    How does any of us know that is no exactly what happened?

  141. Wilde says:

    Live-tracking this Condors game and posting stuff here

  142. OriginalPouzar says:

    No Ethan Bear again tonight – disappointing that he’s had to deal with another injury for term (ankle) – he was starting to play really well, nightly.

  143. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yup – this was also a d-man that was in the AHL at 26 years old after disappointing NHL results.He’s established himself as an NHL d-man (and seemingly a top 4) verging on 27 years of ago (he turns 27 in a month).

    To me, his non-signing, what four years ago, isn’t an egregious error but what this player does show is the different development paths of different players.

    Just like Dylan Strome’s breakout season at 21 (almost 22) after being in the AHL during his 20 year old season and having limited NHL success with middling teamates shows why Jesse Puljujarvi is far from a bust, Gustaffson shows why maybe, just maybe, the book isn’t closed on the ceiling of a guy like Nurse or the potential for a guy like Berglund or Persson.

    To me this shows a difference in orgs. We know this in particular from Cagguila. He was welcomed warmly , and told only to play his game, the reason they acquired him.

    The Oilers routinely ask players to do something other than what they drafted them for, and especially to be more physical.

    Playing a physical game is critical, but it doesn’t mean hitting. It in the effectual application means not losing battles. Some check, some have sticks, some use savvy and positioning, some all.

    Chicago has done well with this given cap constraints post cups with a GM sometimes being dense. They have used Oilers castoffs.

    Drafting players you don’t like the style of, and asking them to be different ( at least high picks who haven’t failed and therefore need to redefine) is a failure of process and thinking. Oiler thinking.

    There is need in play for poorly run teams, but not putting players in the correct place and not finding role players to put around them compounds things as we’ve seen./

  144. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bouchard with one assist and 6 shots in a 6-3 win – his first point in 5 games I believe.

    Samorukov with no points and 1 shot in a rare Guelph loss.

  145. OriginalPouzar says:

    This is going to be a tough game for the Condors – San Jose is VERY good.

    Condors can move within a point of the Baracuda for first point with a win tonight.

  146. OriginalPouzar says:

    Spooner with Joe G. and P. Russell in Malone’s absence.

  147. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’m not sure how one can reconcile wanting to keep the best players on D and wanting to keep Sekera on LTIR in the same sentence.

    Not even going to go in to, yet again, how crippling Sekera on LTIR for the next 3 years would be to trying to improve the team.Its dead cap space on the books until the season starts and then there is some relief – its highly restricting and a terrible way to manage the cap.

    Only if the player might play. If not it’s clear cap space if used which is why floor teams buy it. They won’t use the space so it counts as a hit, sellers get that space back with less hassle trying to meet cap at season start.

  148. Wilde says:

    Condors first roll-out of lines and pairings:

    Benson – Marody – Currie

    Gambardella – Spooner – Russell

    Yamamoto – Vesel – Polei

    Hebig – Esposito – Callahan

    Stanton – Jones

    Lowe – Day

    Sekera – Lagesson

  149. OriginalPouzar says:

    After a solid PK the kid line comes out with yet another strong offensive zone shift – as they do.

  150. hunter1909 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Bouchard with one assist and 6 shots in a 6-3 win – his first point in 5 games I believe.

    I would like to take the sum total of everything I know about hockey to say there’s no need to worry about Bouchard – he’s merely preparing himself for training camp 2019.

    A drafted forward you can call a bust when they stop producing in junior, but a defenceman has other stuff to figure out.

    Bouchard’s going to be fine. He’s a good old Canadian boy.
    Just wait when they pair him with Nurse, it will be like Lapointe and Robinson on defence.

  151. OriginalPouzar says:

    Through 3 shifts, Sekera looks good – a nice outlet pass, a nice keep in at the blue, a strong slapper on net and then a solid pinch in to the slot and forecheck.

    Active so far.

  152. hunter1909 says:

    Wilde:
    Condors first roll-out of lines and pairings:

    Benson – Marody – Currie

    Gambardella – Spooner – Russell

    Yamamoto – Vesel – Polei

    Hebig – Esposito – Callahan

    Stanton – Jones

    Lowe – Day

    Sekera – Lagesson

    Yamamoto on the third line now that really is cause for concern. Might end up in the ECHL lol.

  153. LadiesloveSmid says:

    CallighenMan: Maroon was (is?) a far better player than either Reider or Rattie

  154. OriginalPouzar says:

    Big low hip check by Jones – I have found he’s MUCH more physical in the AHL than what we saw during his first NHL stint.

  155. godot10 says:

    CMcD4PM: Messier
    Damphousse

    Marc-Antoine Pouliot!

  156. OriginalPouzar says:

    Logan Day on PP1 today with Currie, Marody, Callagahan and Benson (Benson plays near the point).

    Spooner, Yamamoto, Joe G., Currie and Jones on PP2.

    Some solid chances but no goal – Condors down 1-0 so far.

  157. oilersfan says:

    How is Sekera’s skating? Speed, Agility, edges, etc?

  158. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    oilersfan,

    Further to that, how’s his recovery rate looking? As I recall, Hitch said the biggest issue was with his endurance/stamina, and not his agility.

  159. OriginalPouzar says:

    The kid line is so good in the offensive zone – a couple really good chances off yet another o-zone cycle shift.

  160. Glovjuice says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I read so much about trading Sekera, hoping he spend the next 3 years on LTIR and even buying him out.

    The last two are absolutely egregious options.

    I’m going to sit back and actually see how this player looks over the next couple of months. He has been a wonderful d-man through his career, a very important piece of the Oilers and his absence has been huge in the team’s play the last couple of years.

    He will be back soon and he very well could be a material beneficial add to this team – sure, maybe he’s terrible but I’m going to actually wait an see until I suggest a buyout.

    He has missed 50 % of his contract with the Oilers. So zoilers that their best free agent signing ever still ended up an average signing due to injury.

  161. OriginalPouzar says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Jacques plante

    Do you mean Jean Francois Jauques?’

    I was young but I think I’d remember a 50 plus year old Jauques Plante tending goal for the Oilers in 79 or the early 80s….

  162. OriginalPouzar says:

    HT Joe: For a good team, these two sentences would contradict one another… but the Oilers?

    I only saw the third last night do to travelling but, from accounts, score effects played a material role in the numbers….

  163. OriginalPouzar says:

    jtblack:
    EDIT: may be repeat

    Just wanted to shout out to LT, WG, OP & the Entire crew.

    Adds value to everyday. Creates thought.

    I appreciate that but the other two stand alone for the content and information (advanced and analyzed).

  164. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    1974-75, his final year before retirement. Because Oilers.

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=4310

  165. OriginalPouzar says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Only if the player might play. If not it’s clear cap space if used which is why floor teams buy it. They won’t use the space so it counts as a hit, sellers get that space back with less hassle trying to meet cap at season start.

    If they can trade away the player but I’m assuming the suggestion was that he remained on the Oilers books for the next 3 years – an egregious result.

  166. Wilde says:

    First period totals:

    CF – 14
    CA – 11
    CD – (+3)

    FF – 9
    FA – 6
    FD – (+3)

    One powerplay for each team, neither scored a goal, so this all was in 16:00 5v5 time.

    Most damage for the Condors was done by the L1D1 pairing of the Marody line with the Jones pairing, they went 9-0 in CF-CA.

  167. Wilde says:

    hunter1909: Yamamoto on the third line now that really is cause for concern. Might end up in the ECHL lol.

    I think not having him with Spooner is such a waste of a) having a guy like Spooner on your team and b) the opportunity to pair that skating and skill with your best F prospect

    But Woodcroft (tries to) run a top-9. It’s not really a suggestion on Yamamoto’s play in my view. I think it’s misguided because I don’t like Vesel’s game at all for a skill line.

  168. OriginalPouzar says:

    hunter1909: Yamamoto on the third line now that really is cause for concern. Might end up in the ECHL lol.

    Line deployment makes perfect sense:

    – the Marody line is not going to be broken up – they are among the best and hottest in the league.

    – the “experience line” has been together all season – they just needed a player to fill in for Malone at center and Spooner has center experience, Yamamoto does not.

    Yamamoto has started to find his game the last few games – creating many many scoring chance – as he needs to he is working on finishing (per Jay W’s verbal).

  169. Gerta Rauss says:

    OriginalPouzar: If they can trade away the player but I’m assuming the suggestion was that he remained on the Oilers books for the next 3 years – an egregious result.

    Well it’s 2 years remaining on his contract but I agree with your assertion

    LTIR would be a terrible end result of Sekera’s contract, even with the certainty that he wouldn’t play again. We’d be better off buying him out, and even that may not be an option if he is indeed injured to the point where he can’t play professional hockey any longer

  170. OriginalPouzar says:

    Joe G. deflects a Spooner centering pass to tie the game up at 1 – Lowe with the second assist.

  171. Wilde says:

    OriginalPouzar: Line deployment makes perfect sense:

    – the Marody line is not going to be broken up – they are among the best and hottest in the league.

    – the “experience line” has been together all season – they just needed a player to fill in for Malone at center and Spooner has center experience, Yamamoto does not.

    Yamamoto has started to find his game the last few games – creating many many scoring chance – as he needs to he is working on finishing (per Jay W’s verbal).

    I think running Gambardella – Spooner – Yamamoto would be better

  172. OriginalPouzar says:

    Starrett comes up big on a clear cut 2 on 0.

  173. unca miltie says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey, you beat me to it. I remember watching Plante in a WHA Oiler sweater. Seems to me he only played home games.
    I came across this site one by on google as I was looking for something Oiler related. Since there, rarely does a day go by that I do not look forward to the balanced prose of our host. I remember seeing the Chorney, Petry, Wild discussions. If my memory is correct Lt was not overly enthusiastic about Petry.

  174. OriginalPouzar says:

    Currie gets a shot blocked but gets it right back, shifts to the side and buries it.

    Marody and Lagesson with assists.

    20 for Currie.

  175. oilersfan says:

    Wilde and Op

    Could you please comment on the skating ability of sekera?

    Many are worried about his agility and speed etc . Thanks

  176. digger50 says:

    Wouldn’t it be nice

    I remember rolling on in the back of Dads Country Squire sometime mid 70s engaged in argument of importance. I said the Beach Boys were the best band ever. My sisters were adamant the Bay City Rollers were the best of all time. Dad said the Beatles. We all laughed at him.

  177. OriginalPouzar says:

    oilersfan:
    How is Sekera’s skating? Speed, Agility, edges, etc?

    A little early to tell but his mobility seems fine to me.

  178. OriginalPouzar says:

    A massive couple of shifts for the Condors and Benson extends the lead to 3-1.

    The Russell/Spooner/Joe G. line with absolutely massive pressure, massive and the line change turns the puck over at the blue line (forced by Benson) – Currie with a bullet from the slot and Benson buries a the rebound. Marody in on it as well.

    Just phenomenal couple of shifts.

  179. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wilde: I think running Gambardella – Spooner – Yamamoto would be better

    I don’t see them wanting to break up Russell and Joe G. and I have time for that line of thinking.

    Of course, there are various ways to deploy the lines and, although development is primary, not overhauling the lines that have generally been together during a 10 game winning streak does make sense to me.

  180. Chief Inspector says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    A massive couple of shifts for the Condors and Benson extends the lead to 3-1.

    The Russell/Spooner/Joe G. line with absolutely massive pressure, massive and the line change turns the puck over at the blue line (forced by Benson) – Currie with a bullet from the slot and Benson buries a the rebound.Marody in on it as well.

    Just phenomenal couple of shifts.

    Sweet music.

  181. Wilde says:

    oilersfan:
    Wilde and Op

    Could you please comment on the skating ability of sekera?

    Many are worried about his agility and speed etc . Thanks

    I’m waiting until after the game to put together a video package of each of his shifts and then watch that a couple times in order to focus on it solely and form a conclusion I feel confident in

  182. Oz says:

    Wilde,

    Wilde
    Look forward to your final assessment. Apreciate the time you will spend preparing it. Many thanks also to OP for the coverage you provide, and an “atta boy” on your regular posts, keep on posting.

  183. JimmyV1965 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’m not sure how one can reconcile wanting to keep the best players on D and wanting to keep Sekera on LTIR in the same sentence.

    Not even going to go in to, yet again, how crippling Sekera on LTIR for the next 3 years would be to trying to improve the team.Its dead cap space on the books until the season starts and then there is some relief – its highly restricting and a terrible way to manage the cap.

    Isn’t the real issue with Sekera the fact that he’s actually coming back? If he’s on LTIR and there’s no possibility of return ever, something like Clarkson, is it not much easier to manage his cap hit in season? Although it’s not ideal, you can manage the cap hit and use it to sign guys to one-year deals. I would think Sekera either returns this year, or he becomes a permanent LTIR. I would assume that he is coming back and he will no longer be an LTIR candidate.

  184. Alpine says:

    jp: Maroon was at least a 0.5 ppg player with McDavid. And actually had decemt results away as well.

    I’m not sure there’s anyone aside from Drai, Nuge, and maybe Chiasson, of that caliber on the current roster. Have you looked at the Oilers stats lately?

    The Ducks retained salary to get rid of Maroon. He had some okay years in Anaheim before getting 13 points in 56 games with them when we acquired him. Same scoring rate as Kassian, Khaira, Lucic, Rieder, Puljujarvi this season. All those guys have scored at higher rates in previous seasons too.

    He was a bottom six guy whose numbers could go up with a great player. Now he’s back to bottom six level offense in St. Louis. Same scoring rate as Rattie actually. Marginally better than the rest of the Oilers’ wingers

    Maroon really wasn’t on a different level than the vast majority of our wingers. He certainly isn’t now. And if he was better, why is there an EIGHT PERCENT drop in McDavid’s CF%? Maroon’s not that good vs the rest of that group.
    _____________

    Every reply to my original post really seems to be missing that the underlying point was about coaching tactics. I keep getting the same replies about literally how good Patrick Maroon is supposed to be or how bad the current wingers are instead of why Hitch’s offensive tactics have McDavid looking incredibly unlike McDavid.

    The wingers were bad last year! Caggiula was especially poor, and he got enough time with McDavid. Cammalleri was fine but old as hell. Rattie was here, Lucic was here, Jesse was here, Khaira was here, Kassian was here. Very, very minimal difference in the winger quality between 2017-18, and 2018-19.

    What is Hitch’s system doing that McDavid can’t even turn them good when he was actually able to do it last year? McDavid shouldn’t be at 46 CF% and 38 GF% no matter what.

  185. Wilde says:

    Period 2 totals:

    CF – 28
    CA – 13
    CD (+13)

    FF – 18
    FA – 5
    FD – +13

    Total totals:

    CF – 42
    CA – 24
    CD – (+18)

    FF – 27
    FA – 11
    FD – (+16)

  186. oilersfan says:

    Alpine,

    Alpine

    McDavid’s problem under hitch hasn’t been just the wingers it’s also the Dmen.

    Klefbom has been gone for 65% of hitch’s games. The oilers were outshooting the opposite for most of hitch’s first 11 games then Klefbom missed 18 games and the team couldn’t get the puck out of their own end

  187. €√¥£€^$ says:

    Wilde:
    Period 2 totals:

    CF – 28
    CA – 13
    CD (+13)

    FF – 18
    FA – 5
    FD – +13

    Total totals:

    CF – 42
    CA – 24
    CD – (+18)

    FF – 27
    FA – 11
    FD – (+16)

    Wilde,

    This is fantastic, as always I really appreciate all the work you’ve been putting in!

    Did you post previously under a different name?

    I am really looking forward to your Seksy analysis!

    Cheers

  188. €√¥£€^$ says:

    I had thought about creating a blog covering Oiler prospects a few years ago, but I don’t have the technical know-how. Now with what Wilde’s doing on his blog, Mosewich’s YouTube channel and OP’s regular updates, it isn’t necessary.

    Besides, this org hasn’t had much to speak of when it came to prospects until this season, in about 20-25 yrs.

    Anyway, I was going to calling the site “Bubbling Crude”. Just putting it out in case someone likes it and would like to use it, lol.

  189. rickithebear says:

    Dmen with Larsson since 16-17
    Jones 4.98 evga/60
    Sekera 3.67 evga/60
    Gravel 2.51 evga/60
    Klefbom 2.40 evga/60 1.98 this year
    Nurse 2.26
    Russell 1.89
    I know who I want playing D with Larsson.
    Cause this team is almost 100% when giving up 2ga or less.
    Around .500 when giving up 3 ga.

    Last thing I want is a dman pretending they are a forward.
    Abandoning front of net and subjecting our team to brutal evga counts.
    Plus last thing I want is a 4.4 sh% dman stealing shot volume from forwards with superior shooting%
    It is moronic pocession usage.

    Sekera with since 16-17
    Benning 2.78 evga/60
    Russell 1.54 evga/60

    Nurse with since 16-17
    Russell 2.42 evga/60
    Benning 2.36 evga/60

    Benning with since 16-17
    Klefbom 2.45 evga/60
    Nurse 2.36 evga/60
    Russell 2.02 evga/60
    Manning 1.56 evga/60
    Davidson 1.52 evga/60
    Gravel 1.47 evga/60

    Larsson – Klefbom 1.98/60 19min EVTOI = .63ga
    Sekera – Russell 1.54/60 17min = .44 ga
    Gravel – Benning 1.47/60 13min = .32 ga

    1.39 evga in even play.
    Average penalty kill gets the GA range around 2.15 ga
    .500 in 3ga and close to 100% in 2ga
    I would expect .750 running these d units.

    The sooner we move Nurse to the leafs for Nylander the better.
    But at least at the deadline.

    We have top D prospects
    Person
    Bouchard
    Berglund
    Lagesson
    Pushing in 19-20

  190. who says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I think we do. He’s a black hole now for positive possession. If a player needs propping up I’d spend that time training a young player, not sheltering a vet on the precipice.

    Jones would be a better third pair now IMO. Mistakes and GA, but Russell is doing it anyway, no loss that way and potential for improvement.

    I don’t ‘dislike ‘ Russell but by eye and number he’s not helping anymore.

    Strong skating and the ability to move the puck are not optional anymore for quality D. Especially small ones.

    Name the 5 dmen who are better than Russell right now.
    And Jones ain’t one of them or he’d still be in Edmonton.

  191. Craig Zonit says:

    Courtesy of young Willis:

    @MarkDivver
    7h
    7 hours ago

    In Providence tonight, Bridgeport’s Josh Ho-Sang will be healthy scratch for 3rd game in a row

  192. Wilde says:

    Third period totals:

    CF – 10
    CA – 12
    CD – -2

    FF – 6
    FA – 6
    FD – 0

    (Some score effects here)

    Game totals:

    CF – 52
    CA – 36
    CD – +16

    FF – 33
    FA – 17
    FD – +16

    Really impressive game, I like the Barracuda a lot (they put the Condors in the dumpster in one game I tracked) but I think they may not have been quite as good as their first half was and that changes my outlook on what happens in the playoffs.

    €√¥£€^$:

    Wilde,
    This is fantastic, as always I really appreciate all the work you’ve been putting in!
    Did you post previously under a different name?
    I am really looking forward to your Seksy analysis!
    Cheers

    Thank you, and no I didn’t. I read the blog and its comments and lurked HF and Twitter for years and years before posting anything anywhere about hockey

  193. rickithebear says:

    Looking at defensive performance in the 2 measures that exist ( that I identified)
    HD shot suppression
    Larsson Top 5 against 1 st comp
    Sekera Top 15 when not asked to play above 2nd line comp.
    Benning Top 25 in 3rd pair role.

    Open corsi supression
    Russell the #1 who will achieve HD results similiar to partner paired with.

    We know when our 3 top HD dmen play with Nurse thier results get dragged down.
    When Russell plays with Nurse we see avg to below average results.

    The common thing in dragging down our elite Def dmens results is Nurse.
    The data shows this.

    Dmen refusing to get the forwards the puck hinder even pocession goal production by 200-400%
    A simple Bolean aproach of best choices.

    16-17 playoffs oilers dmen EVTOI
    Larsson 20:37
    Klefbom 18:17
    Russell 18:13
    Sekera 17:12
    Nurse 16:18
    Benning 15:26

  194. rickithebear says:

    Shooting % this year:
    Chaisson 24.3%
    Draisaitl 22.1%
    Mcdavid 18.4%
    RNH 11.3%
    Manning 11.1%
    Kassian 10.8%
    ————————————-
    Lucic 9.6%
    Puljujarvi 8.2%
    Spooner 8.0%
    Yamamoto 7.7%
    Brodziak 6.8%
    Rattie 6.5%
    Khaira 6.0%
    Russell 5.4%
    Nurse 5.1%

  195. Revolved says:

    Ricki,

    I wonder if Nurse might be pushing offense at the expense of D in order to maximize his contract. He certainly has been a strong defensive player at lower levels.

    You also forgot Reider’s astounding 0% shooting percentage.

  196. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Alpine: The Ducks retained salary to get rid of Maroon. He had some okay years in Anaheim before getting 13 points in 56 games with them when we acquired him. Same scoring rate as Kassian, Khaira, Lucic, Rieder, Puljujarvi this season. All those guys have scored at higher rates in previous seasons too.

    He was a bottom six guy whose numbers could go up with a great player. Now he’s back to bottom six level offense in St. Louis. Same scoring rate as Rattie actually. Marginally better than the rest of the Oilers’ wingers

    Maroon really wasn’t on a different level than the vast majority of our wingers. He certainly isn’t now. And if he was better, why is there an EIGHT PERCENT drop in McDavid’s CF%? Maroon’s not that good vs the rest of that group.
    _____________

    Every reply to my original post really seems to be missing that the underlying point was about coaching tactics. I keep getting the same replies about literally how good Patrick Maroon is supposed to be or how bad the current wingers are instead of why Hitch’s offensive tactics have McDavid looking incredibly unlike McDavid.

    The wingers were bad last year! Caggiula was especially poor, and he got enough time with McDavid. Cammalleri was fine but old as hell. Rattie was here, Lucic was here, Jesse was here, Khaira was here, Kassian was here. Very, very minimal difference in the winger quality between 2017-18, and 2018-19.

    What is Hitch’s system doing that McDavid can’t even turn them good when he was actually able to do it last year? McDavid shouldn’t be at 46 CF% and 38 GF% no matter what.

    Maybe, just maybe, related to the beleaguered d corps and general shit show of oilers play since Klef went down. If we still see those numbers in the next games, then some serious questions.

  197. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV1965: Isn’t the real issue with Sekera the fact that he’s actually coming back? If he’s on LTIR and there’s no possibility of return ever, something like Clarkson, is it not much easier to manage his cap hit in season? Although it’s not ideal, you can manage the cap hit and use it to sign guys to one-year deals. I would think Sekera either returns this year, or he becomes a permanent LTIR. I would assume that he is coming back and he will no longer be an LTIR candidate.

    Firstly, there is pretty much zero chance that Reggie is going to spend the last two years of his contract on LTIR – he’s playing right now and is only 32. He’s an NHL player who is coming back.

    Secondly, if the team new with certainty that the player won’t be activated from LTIR mid-season then, yes, that is helpful as they know the LTIR bonus cushion will never disappear, however:

    – they still need to be cap compliant with the cap hit of the player and no cushion on day 1 of the season – well past the time to make material acquisition via signing and trade. A bunch of relief cap space opens up but the players have been signed

    – when using the LTIR relief, they aren’t accumulating any cap space to bank for in-season acquisitions – they are limited to using the bonus space and not pro rated accumulation – it highly restricts in-season and deadline acquisitions.

    “Robidas Island” is a terrible way to manage the cap.

  198. hunter1909 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Line deployment makes perfect sense:

    – the Marody line is not going to be broken up – they are among the best and hottest in the league.

    – the “experience line” has been together all season – they just needed a player to fill in for Malone at center and Spooner has center experience, Yamamoto does not.

    Yamamoto has started to find his game the last few games – creating many many scoring chance – as he needs to he is working on finishing (per Jay W’s verbal).

    Thanks for the update.

    I normally just look at a page full of names and decide what I’m going to think.

  199. Ryan says:

    OriginalPouzar: Firstly, there is pretty much zero chance that Reggie is going to spend the last two years of his contract on LTIR – he’s playing right now and is only 32.He’s an NHL player who is coming back.

    Secondly, if the team new with certainty that the player won’t be activated from LTIR mid-season then, yes, that is helpful as they know the LTIR bonus cushion will never disappear, however:

    – they still need to be cap compliant with the cap hit of the player and no cushion on day 1 of the season – well past the time to make material acquisition via signing and trade. A bunch of relief cap space opens up but the players have been signed

    – when using the LTIR relief, they aren’t accumulating any cap space to bank for in-season acquisitions – they are limited to using the bonus space and not pro rated accumulation – it highly restricts in-season and deadline acquisitions.

    “Robidas Island” is a terrible way to manage the cap.

    How did Sekera play? How was his skating?

    First game back and all this chatter, but no mention of how he played?

  200. CallighenMan says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yup – this was also a d-man that was in the AHL at 26 years old after disappointing NHL results.He’s established himself as an NHL d-man (and seemingly a top 4) verging on 27 years of ago (he turns 27 in a month).

    To me, his non-signing, what four years ago, isn’t an egregious error but what this player does show is the different development paths of different players.

    Just like Dylan Strome’s breakout season at 21 (almost 22) after being in the AHL during his 20 year old season and having limited NHL success with middling teamates shows why Jesse Puljujarvi is far from a bust, Gustaffson shows why maybe, just maybe, the book isn’t closed on the ceiling of a guy like Nurse or the potential for a guy like Berglund or Persson.

    Agreed in general. In his case EG had as I recall some positive evals and news (SwedishPoster?) and we heard nothing from mgt.

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