16 Items or Less

I’m not sure of the exact number of additional actual NHL players Edmonton needs next season, but it’s more than nine.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group. Outstanding offer is here.

A CONVERSATION

  1. You never call. I’ve been busy.
  2. It’s been a busy year for realtors. Haha funny.
  3. When is the last time the Oilers were this bad? Incredibly, this is shaping up as one of the more successful seasons in the cap era. If this year’s team makes 82 points, it would be the second best year (2016-17) since MacT’s last year coaching in 2008-09.
  4. Is this about McDavid ON/OFF again? I think you mean still.
  5. How bad is it? At 5-on-5, the team is 51-46 (+5) with McDavid in 934 minutes. In the 1,729 minutes without 97, the team is being outscored 46-71 (-25).
  6. Are they any better anywhere? Bakersfield Condors are miles ahead of last year and the success is being driven by prospects.
  7. Big whoop! That’s important, not this instant but for next year and beyond. Quality recall options are something the Oilers haven’t enjoyed in many years.
  8. What does a strong recall season look like? In 2009-10, Edmonton recalled Devan Dubnyk, Theo Peckham, Taylor Chorney, Marc Pouliot, Liam Reddox.
  9. What does a strong recall season look like? The most you’re going to get from a single minor league team is maybe four players (01-02 Hamilton Bulldogs produced Fernando Pisani, Jason Chimera, Ty Conklin and Marc-Andre Bergeron).
  10. Who will make it from this year’s Condors? We’ve already talked about that during the Farm Workers post.
  11. Don’t you ever get tired of it all? I still cheer for the Expos and they’re dead. When I was 12, I collected Winston Churchill stamps. I’ve been to hell and back, man.
  12. Seriously man, this has been like 12 years of awful. That’s like 10 percent of your life! When I was a child, my family would go to Jehovah’s Witness conventions. Friday 6-midnight; Saturday 9a-7p; Sunday 8a-4p. I used to do play by play of Expos games in my head to keep from going insane. I’m here for the long haul. Besides the heart wants what it wants.
  13. Sekera is almost ready. Yeah, they might have to hobble him if he doesn’t get hurt in the third rehab game.
  14. How will they make room? Matt Benning trade is my guess, or they demote Manning, plus trade the Gryba cap hit and the first-round pick for a nice chianti.
  15. What do you hope to get from Sekera? If he can return to anything resembling the 2016-17 edition, I expect impressive top-4 minutes on defense and brilliant overtime performances.
  16. Where would you play him? To start, third pairing with Benning, but I’d like to see the Oilers fix that second pairing. So, Sekera with the best partner among Darnell Nurse and Kris Russell.
  17. What do you expect from the deadline? I think the Oilers will trade Cam Talbot and Alex Chiasson, but the trades of players with term remaining is the thing to watch. Matt Benning, Zack Kassian, Kyle Brodziak and Brandon Manning need to be shopped if only to ease the cap issue for summer.
  18. Cap problems are overblown. Right now the Oilers have 16 NHL players signed at $71,191,300. That leaves $11,808,700 for seven players. Trading Benning and Kassian frees up close to $4 million and allows Edmonton to address needs higher on the depth chart with the savings. The new general manager is going to have to be ruthless.
  19. Who should they buyout? I would buyout Ryan Spooner and Brandon Manning plus Andrej Sekera if he can’t be traded, which saves about $7 million.
  20. What about Lucic? I would attempt to trade him. Travis Yost was on twitter last night talking about the Senators needing cap in order to get to the floor if Stone and Duchene go at the deadline.
  21. Giddyup! Might cost you the first-round pick though, and that pick could get you a scoring winger.
  22. What will happen with the prospects? Same as always. Orphans be orphans. If Keith Gretzky becomes general manager, the 2017 and 2018 picks (Yamamoto, Bouchard groups) are safe. I imagine Bob Green’s connections to names like Tyler Benson and Ethan Bear give those men cover, and Caleb Jones has shown enough to be considered a prospect of value.
  23. Jesse Puljujarvi? It’s an ill wind she blows.
  24. What would you do? I’ve already mentioned the buyout stuff and my article at the The Athletic today gives what I’m hoping will be the template the new general manager adopts. I would target one younger player in free agency who could impact next season. That might include Brock Nelson, Anders Lee, Ryan Dzingel. I would also overpay Brandon Pirri, who I think is an example of MoneyPuck and could deliver value even if given a ridiculous raise. That gets me two wingers to add to Leon inside the top six forwards, and we’ll have to see if one of the youngsters can grab the other spot (or perhaps a trade gets it done).
  25. What about defence?  It is going to be difficult to fix over one summer. The Klefbom-Larsson pairing works and Nurse-someone who can outlet the puck should settle in as a good second duo. The third pair could be Caleb Jones-Tim Heed and Edmonton could offload Kris Russell in order to pay for the second goaltender. Something like that.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

CFL free agency kicks off this morning, we’ll be balls out on coverage with lots of time to talk Oilers. Starting at 10, TSN1260:

  • Jonathan Willis, The Athletic. Oilers trade deadline and the new general manager.
  • Darrin Bauming, TSN1290 Winnipeg. Blue Bombers making moves.
  • Andy McNamara, TSN4Downs. We’ll chat NFL offseason and the Cleveland Browns early transactions.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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214 Responses to "16 Items or Less"

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  1. tileguy says:

    LT, that poor kid on your avatar has had his tongue stuck on that pole for over 10 days now, time to get some hot water and free him.

  2. leadfarmer says:

    Lucic cap is higher than his real money going forward. If we retain 25% maybe they take him. Though doubt anyone with a NMC waives to go to Ottawa

  3. Washingtron says:

    May all these things come to pass! (Especially that Looch one, even if you lose the first rounder you can pay someone who is already at least mostly developed for the McD cluster)

  4. Washingtron says:

    leadfarmer:
    Lucic cap is higher than his real money going forward. If we retain 25% maybe they take him.Though doubt anyone with a NMC waives to go to Ottawa

    Aw man! Why you gotta rain on my parade!?

  5. Oddspell says:

    leadfarmer,

    Depends on the player. Would he rather stay in Edmonton and lose while playing 13 minutes a night or go to Ottawa, have an easier schedule, an easier winter, and lose while playing 18 minutes a night?

    Ironically it would show a lot of loyalty to stay in Edmonton, but I could see Milan waiving.

    Not sure I’d package the 1st to do it, and honestly if we’re retaining I don’t think we should have to. Honestly though, I think Ottawa is probably a better destination for a guy like Spooner or Manning, and I wonder if it would take much at all from our end.

  6. OriginalPouzar says:

    “Quality recall options are something the Oilers haven’t enjoyed in many years.”

    This is one key. Some/many talk about no high end prospect and, except for maybe Bouchard that is likely true (although you never know, for all we know Maskimov “hits” and ends up scoring 40 with Drai).

    Anyways, what the organisation should start benefiting from over the next few years and indefinitely is NHL-ready players that are peculating in the minor leagues and waiting for recall. When an injury call-up is needed, an actual NHL ready and talented player should be ready to step in.

    That is a big damn deal.

    Each of the following players should be in the conversation for “NHL readiness” next season: Bear, Jones, Lagesson, Persson, Bouchard, Yamamoto, Benson, Marody

  7. OriginalPouzar says:

    Clearing $1.2M of cap space for Sekera is really a non-issue. Of course, a trade out of a Benning, Kassian, Manning, Petrovic, Talbot, etc. gets us there, however, it can easily be done without a trade.

    Of course, one of (if not both) Petrovic and/or Manning get waived – if claimed, done. Assuming no claim one goes down and the saves $1,050,000 leaving an additional $150K to clear (damn Gryba buyout).

    That could be as easy as sending Malone down and running with a 22 man roster (although, these days, it seems many/most would prefer to waive Brodz and send him down over Malone).

    With Rattie unavailable for a bit, maybe he is the one that gets sent down – I don’t believe he’s played 10 games or its been 30 days since he cleared waivers, has it? He’s not on IR but I’m unsure of his injury prohibits his re-assignment – it would kind of be a dick move (although he has a one-way contract so his pay won’t be effected).

  8. Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR says:

    leadfarmer:
    Lucic cap is higher than his real money going forward. If we retain 25% maybe they take him.Though doubt anyone with a NMC waives to go to Ottawa

    That’s the kind of contract teams like Arizona, Florida, and Carolina look for. They get closer to the cap floor, but aren’t paying the full cap hit in real cash. No way he waves for Ottawa though.

  9. Woogie63 says:

    Without a “real” GM right now, I don’t see any trades in to help this team.

    I see don’t see any reason Talbot, Manning, Petrovic, Benning, Gavel, Brodziak, Or Reider should feel comfortable they will be an Oiler after the trade deadline.

    Help the team can expect, Sekera, Spooner, Scarlett and Persson.

  10. OriginalPouzar says:

    Buyout Spooner and Manning – no, no, no, no, no.

    Why extend cap hits beyond the one season of term they have left?

    I’d prefer to place Manning in the AHL with a cap savings of $1,075,000 next season – if nothing else it provides a veteran presence for the kids (the Stanton) and some injury cover for call-ups. Or else retain up to $1M and trade him for cap space.

    Spooner is an NHL player and needs to be given a real shot in the top 6 with the Oilers so management can ascertain if he can provide exactly what this team needs and exactly what he has brought through his career – top 6 production as a complementary player on a scoring line.

    He has done that year after year after year but he has been given no chance to do that as an Oiler – 2 games with Nuge where they got caved and then, boom, relegated to the bottom 6 and often the 4th line.

    He’s not a “line driver” but he can produce as a complimentary player with talented linemates.

    The coach is failing the organization by not giving this player a chance.

    Buyouts are bad business to start with. Buyouts for players that could help if put in a position to succeed are egregious.

  11. Dr. Taboggan says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    I agree. I would not buyout anyone this summer. Just let it ride. We are not going to be competitive next year, no need to extend the bad contracts.

    I also think Spooner deserves a shot with a new coach. Spooner has a history of scoring in the NHL and is a decent skater. With the right coach he could be a decent middle six option.

  12. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Trading Benning at the deadline because he’s tradeable would be a mistake IMO:

    – Only Larsson is better RHD (and russell). Jones, Bouchard, Persson etc aren’t better

    – Why don’t they play Nurse-Benning more?

    – But they probably do trade him, and slot in one of the shiny things who will go through the same learning curve as Benning did.

    – Healthy Sek solves a lot of trouble.

  13. Darth Tu says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    I agree that Spooner needs another shot in the NHL, but won’t bringing him back up cause even more of a cap headache? H’e’s looked a lot better in Bakersfield over the last few games so I’d not be against him getting a shot – but will Hitch give him one? I’d staple him to McDavid or Drai for a few games to see what we really have going on.

  14. tileguy says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Would you not worry about upsetting the chemistry in the Bake if Manning and Petrovic are sent down?

  15. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Why buyout Sekera if he can play?

  16. LMHF#1 says:

    Something that people need to get through their heads in the modern era:

    You should not and essentially cannot be attached to players that fit the following slots – they wind up costing too much:

    – Forwards 10-14
    – Defencemen 5-7

    These players should be changed out every year…or two years at max. They are widely available every single year, for only cash, and not that much of it.

    One of the Oilers’ biggest mistakes is constantly failing in this area. High end talent is easy to identify, low end talent is cheap, plentiful, and you can pick up enough bets that you’ll hit on some…the trick is in the middle. Finding the best and the best fit at a good price. A well-organized GM and pro scouting staff can orient themselves to spending nearly all their time on this.

    The Oilers could also really use the modern equivalent and attitude of this guy. They’ve been missing it for nearly 20 years now.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2786b2f17k

  17. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Dr. Taboggan:
    OriginalPouzar,

    I agree. I would not buyout anyone this summer. Just let it ride. We are not going to be competitive next year, no need to extend the bad contracts.

    I also think Spooner deserves a shot with a new coach. Spooner has a history of scoring in the NHL and is a decent skater. With the right coach he could be a decent middle six option.

    I think that will be next year with a new coach if Spooner is still around….

  18. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    OriginalPouzar:

    Each of the following players should be in the conversation for “NHL readiness” next season:Bear, Jones, Lagesson, Persson, Bouchard, Yamamoto, Benson, Marody

    – I see what your saying, but this is how I see them next year, slotted properly:

    Bear – sheltered 3rd pairing with a stud
    Jones – see above
    Lagesson – (Ibid)
    Persson – (Ibid)
    Bouchard – (Ibid)
    Yamamoto – on a scoring line with two bonafides
    Benson – start on 4rth like like Jar, and move up
    Marody – (see above)

    – Trading a Benning and Russell, and if Sek doesn’t come back, the solution isn’t to replace them with 3 of the 5 D above

    – Depending on Kailer’s wingers, he could be ok, and Benson and Marody as 4rth line perfect

    – None should be counted on to move the needle next year (IMO), and if you slot more than 1 or 2 of them into the lineup, your just asking for trouble, same as it ever was

  19. Brantford Boy says:

    14. How will they make room? Matt Benning trade is my guess, or they demote Manning, plus trade the Gryba cap hit and the first-round pick for a nice chianti.

    Maybe with some fava beans LT… I wonder what Anthony Hopkins is up to, might make a good GM…
    You still wake up sometimes, don’t you? You wake up in the dark and hear the screaming of the lambs.

  20. LMHF#1 says:

    As for your question LT – of who should be left – if possible:

    McDavid
    Draisaitl
    Hopkins
    Larsson
    Klefbom
    Nurse

    Of the current NHL roster – that’s all I’d keep. For those who say “that’s not possible!!!”…of course it is. Very few are bold enough to attempt that. Find that guy – that’s who you want running this team.

    One of the questions with regard to every single player you acquire – can I win a Stanley Cup with this guy on the ice? – if the answer is no, you don’t acquire them.

  21. OriginalPouzar says:

    Rattie and Benning on the ice this morning as they rehab their minor injuries.

    Khaira isn’t skating.

  22. Ryan says:

    LMHF#1,

    Many of the good teams have cheap young players developed internally for the bottom of the roster forward slots.

    Develop undrafted, drafted/unsigned by other clubs, or Euro players for these roles.

    No disrespect to Brodziak, but if you’re paying a guy over a million at his age (x2 years no less) that’s borderline replacement level… who doesn’t move around the rink very well of produce offense, you’re doing something wrong.

  23. Primetime says:

    Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR: That’s the kind of contract teams like Arizona, Florida, and Carolina look for.They get closer to the cap floor, but aren’t paying the full cap hit in real cash.No way he waves for Ottawa though.

    This keeps coming up, and I really don’t think Lucic’s contract fits this concept. He is still owed a ton of money, not that much lower than his cap hit. The type of contract you are describing usually has a drastically reduced amount of money owed compared to the cap hit.

    Lucic (2019-20 to 2022-23):
    Cap Hit: $24 million ($6 million x 4)
    Actual Money Owed: $19 million
    Money owed = 80% of contract

    Hossa (2017-18 to 2020-21):
    Cap Hit: $21.2 million ($5.275 x 4)
    Actual Money Owed: $4 million
    Money owed = 20% of contract

    Teams struggling financially are not looking for a contract where they still pay 80% of the dollars for a struggling player, that is not a big enough benefit. Unless he goes on LTIR and insurance pays for the remaining dollars, I don’t see it happening in that manner.
    It is going to have to be retained money…

  24. leadfarmer says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick:
    Why buyout Sekera if he can play?

    Don’t buy out Sekera
    Trade him with retention if need be. We want these contracts to expire as quickly as possible. We are not a 3 mil FA player away from competing

  25. LMHF#1 says:

    Ryan:
    LMHF#1,

    Many of the good teams have cheap young players developed internally for the bottom of the roster forward slots.

    Develop undrafted, drafted/unsigned by other clubs, or Euro players for these roles.

    No disrespect toBrodziak, but if you’re paying a guy over a million at his age (x2 years no less) that’s borderline replacement level… who doesn’t move around the rink very well of produce offense, you’re doing something wrong.

    Correct – but – also don’t get attached to them if they don’t move up the roster.

    If they aren’t making it – cut bait. If they’re close but not quite – trade, get assets, move on.

    Sather taught these guys a lot of lessons but they apparently missed a few – such as – Sather traded Dave Semenko, Lee Fogolin, Dave Hunter, Pat Hughes, Ken Linesman…and many others – do you think Lowe or MacTavish or any of those guys could have traded similar players? They get way too attached…

  26. OriginalPouzar says:

    Its interesting, a few days ago at OilersNation, Gregor wrote that the Oilers are hoping the league grants the extension for an additional two games for Sekera – implying that the team had filed with the league for the extension. Today, Seravalli said that the team hasn’t yet made the decision on if they are going to apply. Totally conflicting reports from two guys that both get paid by TSN.

  27. jtblack says:

    LT: I would pay $4.99 / month for this Blog. The content and enjoyment you and the crew bring is pure Gold.

    I joined the Athletic, if only to support you.

    Don’t have a lot of extra time to read MOST of the articles, but to try and get to a couple a week.

    Thanks for your Hard Work and Oilers Coverage.

  28. Ryan says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Its interesting, a few days ago at OilersNation, Gregor wrote that the Oilers are hoping the league grants the extension for an additional two games for Sekera – implying that the team had filed with the league for the extension. Today, Seravalli said that the team hasn’t yet made the decision on if they are going to apply. Totally conflicting reports from two guys that both get paid by TSN.

    My theory is that it’s the Oilers way…

    I have no patience and I hate waiting. We need Sekera now to make this push for our 15% and dwindling playoff chance.

    Damn the torpedoes…

  29. jtblack says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Buyout Spooner and Manning – no, no, no, no, no.

    Why extend cap hits beyond the one season of term they have left?

    I’d prefer to place Manning in the AHL with a cap savings of $1,075,000 next season – if nothing else it provides a veteran presence for the kids (the Stanton) and some injury cover for call-ups.Or else retain up to $1M and trade him for cap space.

    Spooner is an NHL player and needs to be given a real shot in the top 6 with the Oilers so management can ascertain if he can provide exactly what this team needs and exactly what he has brought through his career – top 6 production as a complementary player on a scoring line.

    He has done that year after year after year but he has been given no chance to do that as an Oiler – 2 games with Nuge where they got caved and then, boom, relegated to the bottom 6 and often the 4th line.

    He’s not a “line driver” but he can produce as a complimentary player with talented linemates.

    The coach is failing the organization by not giving this player a chance.

    Buyouts are bad business to start with.Buyouts for players that could help if put in a position to succeed are egregious.

    +1

  30. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    – I’d be surprised if the league wouldn’t grant an extension. The 3 games plus 2 games was really so teams don’t play funny games with cap.

    – In the case of Sek: missed 2 season with two injuries requiring 2 surgeries, the integrity of the Cap isn’t in jepordy, the player is getting paid full so the NHLPA would have no issue

    – It’s in the players (and team’s) best interest to give an injured player the max opportunity to rehab

  31. leadfarmer says:

    I like the Canucks when they are doing stupid things like not having enough goalies to make it through a season

  32. dustrock says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Buyout Spooner and Manning – no, no, no, no, no.

    Spooner is an NHL player and needs to be given a real shot in the top 6 with the Oilers so management can ascertain if he can provide exactly what this team needs and exactly what he has brought through his career – top 6 production as a complementary player on a scoring line.

    He has done that year after year after year but he has been given no chance to do that as an Oiler – 2 games with Nuge where they got caved and then, boom, relegated to the bottom 6 and often the 4th line.

    Maybe we’re thinking of different players. Spooner had a couple of pretty good years on Boston and started hot on the Rangers, but he’s been replacement level the last few years otherwise, no?

  33. Munny says:

    LMHF#1:
    As for your question LT – of who should be left – if possible:

    McDavid
    Draisaitl
    Hopkins
    Larsson
    Klefbom
    Nurse

    Of the current NHL roster – that’s all I’d keep. For those who say “that’s not possible!!!”…of course it is. Very few are bold enough to attempt that. Find that guy – that’s who you want running this team.

    One of the questions with regard to every single player you acquire – can I win a Stanley Cup with this guy on the ice? – if the answer is no, you don’t acquire them.

    So, just to be clear, you are trading Pujo?

  34. Wilde says:

    Here’s my (thorough and disturbing) report on Andre Sekera’s couple Bakersfield games, what I saw and what I wrote down:

    http://petropraxis.blogspot.com/2019/02/slick-reggie-wheels-stunts-on-stint.html

  35. leadfarmer says:

    Now that the Caps have committed to two goalies I would be very interested in pursuing Samsonov.
    Don’t let the early numbers fool you. That is a lot of change for a young player and the skill level is undeniable. He will be a good starter and soon. We aren’t going anywhere for a couple of seasons anyway so we have time to develop him.

  36. LMHF#1 says:

    Munny: So, just to be clear, you are trading Pujo?

    If there’s decent value out there I would, yes. If there isn’t, get him to the minors.

    I’d actually have traded him this past summer as he still likely retained a lot of value. I don’t see a high ceiling any longer.

    When they were looking at trading Eberle, I was considering what the combo of Eberle, the 1st, and Puljujarvi could bring back in either one trade or two…I believe you could have taken care of a couple problems with that combo of assets.

  37. Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR says:

    I don’t think MacGuyver could fix this mess in one year. The only tradeable players are the ones they need to keep. It would be hard to bring in the pieces we need even if we weren’t over the cap now (which we basically are). Trades are really not the answer. Keep drafting and developing until the bad contracts start coming off the books is the play here.

  38. LMHF#1 says:

    leadfarmer:
    Now that the Caps have committed to two goalies I would be very interested in pursuing Samsonov.
    Don’t let the early numbers fool you.That is a lot of change for a young player and the skill level is undeniable.He will be a good starter and soon.We aren’t going anywhere for a couple of seasons anyway so we have time to develop him.

    A team with its house in order:

    “Starter Braden Holtby is only signed through the end of next season, and Washington has top prospect Ilya Samsonov and 2014 second-round pick Vitek Vanecek in the system. With Copley in the fold, the decision is looming between committing long term to Holtby and turning the net over to Samsonov.

    “It’ll work itself out, I think,” general manager Brian MacLellan said. “We’ll see how Samsonov comes and what our situation is cap-wise and the signings we determine to make.”

    Which of their FOUR quality goalies will they stick with…must be nice.

  39. OriginalPouzar says:

    No surprise but Koskinen confirmed starter in PIT.

    Here is hoping he can get on a roll and provide solid and consistent tending for the rest of the year to give the fans a bit of confidence heading in to the spring/summer/camp.

  40. OriginalPouzar says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Its interesting, a few days ago at OilersNation, Gregor wrote that the Oilers are hoping the league grants the extension for an additional two games for Sekera – implying that the team had filed with the league for the extension. Today, Seravalli said that the team hasn’t yet made the decision on if they are going to apply. Totally conflicting reports from two guys that both get paid by TSN.

    Jason has responded to me as follows:

    “They spoke to league about it but official application can’t be submitted until after 3rd game. LEague told them they won’t formerly discuss until formal application is sent in. Edm was hoping, but might not do it if they think answer is no. Hard when he plays 20 min/game in AHL”.

    His initial advise that the team had applied was over-stated.

  41. GMB3 says:

    If we could ship JP and a Second with Lucic to get rid of him, would you do it?

  42. OriginalPouzar says:

    Coach says Rattie might be able to play tomorrow but Benning is unlikely. Khaira is probable.

  43. Alpine says:

    dustrock: Maybe we’re thinking of different players.Spooner had a couple of pretty good years on Boston and started hot on the Rangers, but he’s been replacement level the last few years otherwise, no?

    He’s been replacement level the last few months, yes. He’s only been in the league since 2013 and I can’t find a season that’s been replacement level other than this current one.

  44. Dicky94 says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    When you say spring do you mean playoffs? Yes OP, there’s still a chance!! I’ll cheer to the bitter end for sure. But ya , I hope they ride Koski too. Time to see what he can do.

  45. texmex says:

    Dicky94,

    Daniel Nugent-Bowman
    @DNBsports
    – Koskinen will start tomorrow and Hitchcock said he’ll continue to play if he stays hot — even if that means playing back-to-back games.
    – The Oilers’ goal is to gain four points in three-game segments the rest of the way. Hitchcock believes they can make the playoffs that way.

  46. John Chambers says:

    LT – I’m with you on Dzingel and Pirri. Add Panik into the mix and that’s three top-9 wingers for under $8M.

    2019-2020 top-9:
    Dzingel – McDavid – Pirri
    Rieder – RNH – Draisaitl
    Khaira – Marody – Puljujarvi

    You can fit this in your budget along with a competent backup for Koskinen.

  47. Klima's_Bucket says:

    leadfarmer,

    The Caps just signed Copley for 1.1M/yr so they met goalie requirement to expose in the Seattle draft.
    Just like the Pens did with DeSmith for 1.25M/yr
    Just like the Wild did with Stalock for .785M/yr
    Just like the Oilers did with Koskinen for 4.5M/yr

    One of those things is not like the other.

  48. frjohnk says:

    texmex: – The Oilers’ goal is to gain four points in three-game segments the rest of the way. Hitchcock believes they can make the playoffs that way.

    Thats a 1.33 point pace over the last 27 games = 36 points. Oilers end the season with 89 points. I think 89 points would be good enough for 8th spot.

    Tampa and Calgary are the only two teams above the 1.33 point pace during the season up until now.

  49. frjohnk says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    leadfarmer,

    The Caps just signed Copley for 1.1M/yr so they met goalie requirement to expose in the Seattle draft.
    Just like the Pens did with DeSmith for 1.25M/yr
    Just like the Wild did with Stalock for .785M/yr
    Just like the Oilers did with Koskinen for 4.5M/yr

    One of those things is not like the other.

    Is it that the Wild have never won a Cup?

  50. russ99 says:

    Primetime: This keeps coming up, and I really don’t think Lucic’s contract fits this concept.He is still owed a ton of money, not that much lower than his cap hit.The type of contract you are describing usually has a drastically reduced amount of money owed compared to the cap hit.

    Lucic (2019-20 to 2022-23):
    Cap Hit: $24 million ($6 million x 4)
    Actual Money Owed: $19 million
    Money owed = 80% of contract

    Hossa (2017-18 to 2020-21):
    Cap Hit: $21.2 million ($5.275 x 4)
    Actual Money Owed: $4 million
    Money owed = 20% of contract

    Teams struggling financially are not looking for a contract where they still pay 80% of the dollars for a struggling player, that is not a big enough benefit.Unless he goes on LTIR and insurance pays for the remaining dollars, I don’t see it happening in that manner.
    It is going to have to be retained money…

    There’s a large bonus being paid Lucic on July 1st, after that is when it makes more sense to find a team with high cap space and needs less of a financial hit.

  51. russ99 says:

    John Chambers,

    I’m not sold on Pirri, and we could have had him for nothing. Panik however could cure a lot of ails.

    I would rather see the Oilers trade assets now for a player with a few years left who may not be available at the draft or prior to FA, (pie in the sky is Athanasiou) then augment in FA.

    You generally pay a lot more in FA than in the trade market.

  52. who says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – Trading Benning at the deadline because he’stradeable would be a mistake IMO:

    – Only Larsson is better RHD (and russell).Jones, Bouchard, Persson etc aren’t better

    – Why don’t they play Nurse-Benning more?

    – But they probably do trade him, and slot in one of the shiny things who will go through the same learning curve as Benning did.

    – Healthy Sek solves a lot of trouble.

    Benning is a 3RD. The Oilers have Klefbom, Larrson, Nurse, Russell and Sekera (if healthy) ahead of him on the depth chart. They also have Jones, Bear Lagesson, Bouchard and Peerson coming. Jones is already better than Benning, in my opinion. Benning earns 1.9 million next year as a 6/7 dman. Seems like an easy decision to me.
    Why are you so scared of trading this player? Do you still see him as a 2RD?
    We have plenty of potential replacements for him in the system already. And most of them will be 1 million dollars cheaper.

  53. dustrock says:

    Alpine: He’s been replacement level the last few months, yes. He’s only been in the league since 2013 and I can’t find a season that’s been replacement level other than this current one.

    Haven’t had a chance to check today but when we traded for him I seem to recall he was fizzling out a bit in Boston and after a hot start in NY he was pretty bad.

  54. russ99 says:

    who,

    Yeah, I think Jones is way ahead of him skill-wise, just needs more experience.

    Besides the first thing a new GM does is dump the pet projects of the old GM.

  55. Primetime says:

    russ99: There’s a large bonus being paid Lucic on July 1st, after that is when it makes more sense to find a team with high cap space and needs less ofa financial hit.

    Still 66% of the contract money owed. Just don’t see the benefit for a team to do that without major incentive (i.e. 1st rounder or JP). Think we have a better chance of moving him to a team that feels he can still play, but wants him at a lower hit, so we retain as much as possible.

  56. Ryan says:

    russ99: There’s a large bonus being paid Lucic on July 1st, after that is when it makes more sense to find a team with high cap space and needs less ofa financial hit.

    The signing bonus is $3m

  57. Dicky94 says:

    texmex,

    Good to hear. Still hope we can sign Talbot to a one year deal around 2 mill.

  58. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    who: Benning is a 3RD. They also have Jones, Bear Lagesson, Bouchard and Peerson coming. Jones is already better than Benning,
    Why are you so scared of trading this player? Do you still see him as a 2RD?
    We have plenty of potential replacements for him in the system already.

    – In a subsequent response to OP, I went through this, but you ask a good question.

    – The hope is that Jones, Bear, Lagesson, Bouchard, Peersoon, etc will eventually be better than him, but they aren’t now

    – If you trade Benning, your gifting his slot to one of them. And if Sek is not 100%, gifting another spot to one of them. I’m not enamoured with Russell or Benning per se, but they are better than anything in our system still IMO. We want a better D corps next year than this year, not develop D in the NHL next year. So bring up one of them max.

    – If you knew that Sek was healthy, I could see breaking in one of them and trading Benning

  59. Alpine says:

    dustrock,

    Spooner has his best year as a Bruin when they traded him. Here’s his EV pts/60 since 2013:

    BOS 13/14: 1.2
    BOS 14/15: 2.3
    BOS 15/16: 1.5
    BOS 16:17: 2.0
    BOS 17/18: 2.7
    NYR 17/18: 2.8
    NYR 18/19: 0.7
    EDM 18/18: 0.8

  60. who says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – In a subsequent response to OP, I went through this, but you ask a good question.

    – The hope is that Jones, Bear, Lagesson, Bouchard, Peersoon, etc will eventually be better than him, but they aren’t now

    – If you trade Benning, your gifting his slot to one of them.And if Sek is not 100%, gifting another spot to one of them.I’m not enamoured with Russell or Benning per se, but they are better than anything in our system still IMO.We want a better D corps next year than this year, not develop D in the NHL next year.So bring up one of them max.

    – If you knew that Sek was healthy, I could see breaking in one of them and trading Benning

    We should have an answer on Sekera by the end of the season, if not by the trade deadline. If he’s healthy, I think you trade Benning.
    I know everyone wants to trade Sekera or Russell, or both. However, our best defense for next year would include both of them plus a couple of rookies like Jones and Bear.
    I disagree with you on Jones. Think he’s already better than Benning but I may be biased. I have never been a big Benning booster. Always thought that his physical tools would limit him to a bottom pairing. Never saw him as a viable 2RD.

  61. OriginalPouzar says:

    Joel Persson with an early assist for Vaxjo as he continues to produce.

    Last I checked, he was in apx 27% of Vaxjo’s goals, up from 23% last year when the team had Elia Petersson.

    As an aside, the goal was scored by Roman Horak and also assisted by Kris Versteeg – the “all Oiler connection” goal!

  62. YKOil says:

    Primetime: This keeps coming up, and I really don’t think Lucic’s contract fits this concept.He is still owed a ton of money, not that much lower than his cap hit.The type of contract you are describing usually has a drastically reduced amount of money owed compared to the cap hit.

    Lucic (2019-20 to 2022-23):
    Cap Hit: $24 million ($6 million x 4)
    Actual Money Owed: $19 million
    Money owed = 80% of contract

    Hossa (2017-18 to 2020-21):
    Cap Hit: $21.2 million ($5.275 x 4)
    Actual Money Owed: $4 million
    Money owed = 20% of contract

    Teams struggling financially are not looking for a contract where they still pay 80% of the dollars for a struggling player, that is not a big enough benefit.Unless he goes on LTIR and insurance pays for the remaining dollars, I don’t see it happening in that manner.
    It is going to have to be retained money…

    With July 1 signing bonus of $3 million paid

    Lucic (2019-20 to 2022-23):
    Cap Hit: $24 million ($6 million x 4)
    Actual Money Owed: $19 million – $3 million = $16 million
    Money owed = 67% of contract

    If the Oilers retain $1 million a year then

    Lucic (2019-20 to 2022-23):
    Cap Hit (for Ottawa): $20 million ($5 million x 4)
    Actual Money Owed: $19 million – $3 million – $4 million = $12 million
    Money owed = 60% of contract (so cost to Ottawa is $3 million /yr)

    If the Oilers retain $2 million a year then

    Lucic (2019-20 to 2022-23):
    Cap Hit (for Ottawa): $16 million ($4 million x 4)
    Actual Money Owed: $19 million – $3 million – $8 million = $8 million
    Money owed = 50% of contract (so cost to Ottawa is $2 million /yr)

    If the Oilers retain $3 million a year then

    Lucic (2019-20 to 2022-23):
    Cap Hit (for Ottawa): $12 million ($3 million x 4)
    Actual Money Owed: $19 million – $3 million – $12 million = $4 million
    Money owed = 33% of contract (so cost to Ottawa is $1 million /yr)

    And that is where it can end up imo. Whether Lucic waives or not I don’t know. I do believe Lucic has roots of some kind in the Boston area and this does bring him closer to those roots but whether that matters or not I don’t know. I do know that if Ottawa doesn’t sign Stone and Duchene that Ottawa represents the easiest fit for Lucic in this sort of trade.

    Any of those scenario’s represent a win for the Oilers re: Cap going forward.

    The Hossa spread is from the old CBA. Under the new CBA the only big savings will be via insurance-covered trades and for non-covered trades a $2 million spread (a la the above example) is actually quite good.

  63. YKOil says:

    I think both Spooner and Manning are easy trades with retained salary and pick-flip considerations.

    Even as early as this trade deadline.

  64. Darth Tu says:

    Wilde:
    Here’s my (thorough and disturbing) report on Andre Sekera’s couple Bakersfield games, what I saw and what I wrote down:

    http://petropraxis.blogspot.com/2019/02/slick-reggie-wheels-stunts-on-stint.html
    Fantastic job. Great read, and really couples with what my “eye-test” saw over the 2 games.

  65. Alpine says:

    Oilers should absolutely stay away from big ticket UFAs. Dzingel is about the highest they should aim. And at that, 2nd line types get 4 or 5 years at 4.5-5.5 mil, and I don’t even know if they can fit that.

    There are a lot of decent to great forwards available in UFA at this point so maybe the buyers market plus promises of McDavid/Drai/RNH as his centre can convince Dzingel to sign for 4 years x 4.25 or something. That would be one top six winger taken care of and you could move some cap and young assets to get another.

    I still like the Burakovsky route. Lot of potential there from his first couple seasons in WSH. Him and Dzingel wouldn’t cost much more than cap space and maybe an okay prospect and pick.

    I also like Silfverberg, Donskoi, Hagelin, and Wilson as potential buy low candidates.

  66. JimmyV1965 says:

    John Chambers:
    LT – I’m with you on Dzingel and Pirri. Add Panik into the mix and that’s three top-9 wingers for under $8M.

    2019-2020 top-9:
    Dzingel – McDavid – Pirri
    Rieder – RNH – Draisaitl
    Khaira – Marody – Puljujarvi

    You can fit this in your budget along with a competent backup for Koskinen.

    I would much rather spend $8 mill on one exceptional winger than $8 mill on three mediocre to okay wingers. And I would trade for an already signed guy, not a UFA.

  67. John Chambers says:

    JimmyV1965: I would much rather spend $8 mill on one exceptional winger than $8 mill on three mediocre to okay wingers.

    A Draisaitl – McDavid – Stone line would be the best in hockey. The Oilers should go hard after him, but I doubt we could offer more than $8M x 7, and would have to go through contortions to make it happen.

  68. Oddspell says:

    I think Oilers targets in UFA should be Silfverberg and Jensen.

    Should hopefully be able to get both for a reasonable sum, and combined with a shrewd trade for a winger from a cap crunched contender, would yield a vastly improved team. Now can we fit all that in with our own cap crunch and assets?

  69. Alpine says:

    A Bobby Ryan for Lucic trade would actually make some sense, but there’s not a lot of ways for OTT to save real dollars and the Oilers to save cap there. Can’t really trade Lucic without taking back a contract like that.

    Ryan’s scoring hasn’t cratered like Lucic’s so he would provide more value for the Oilers on a shorter term deal that’s not buyout proof either.

  70. OriginalPouzar says:

    Listening to coach – sounds like Petrovic might get in tomorrow – Hitch says he’s worked really hard in the last 4-5 practices and has “improved”.

  71. Cassandra says:

    Off LT’s piece in the Athletic today, who are the three people who wanted Hall gone that are no longer in the organization.

    I’m assuming Chiarelli is one.

    Is #2 McClellan?

    Who is #3.

  72. Alpine says:

    John Chambers: A Draisaitl – McDavid – Stone line would be the best in hockey. The Oilers should go hard after him, but I doubt we could offer more than $8M x 7, and would have to go through contortions to make it happen.

    Wouldn’t make the team much better. Nuge would still be playing with scraps and underdeveloped prospects. One line teams always fail. You’d be getting Stone (and they can’t fit him in, let’s be serious) so that you can split up McDavid and Drai.

  73. ashley says:

    Cassandra:
    Off LT’s piece in the Athletic today, who are the three people who wanted Hall gone that are no longer in the organization.

    I’m assuming Chiarelli is one.

    Is #2 McClellan?

    Who is #3.

    Maroon

    edit – Maybe Ference

  74. DasBavaria says:

    Cassandra,

    Either Ian Herbers or Jim Johnson. TMac’s Assistants.

  75. greenshifter says:

    Wilde,

    Thanks for this!

  76. HugThePost says:

    ashley: Maroon

    edit – Maybe Ference

    Maroon?

    Interesting……I hadn’t heard or read anything about Maroon; I thought he was just a good team guy

  77. Primetime says:

    YKOil,

    I think we are kind of on the same page, as I mentioned the only way to trade the contract is to retain salary. I was refuting that it is a contract that will be seen as so beneficial to a cap floor team that it is worth the risk/effort for them to take it.

    Even in the scenario that you sent out, there is not a huge benefit to a cap floor team.

    1) When you retain salary, you also retain that portion of the cap hit. Therefore, you are already lessening the perceived value of trading for the contract for a cap floor team (ie. inflated cap hit to get to the floor). Withholding $3 million means his cap hit to Ottawa is also only $3 million.

    2) In actuality you retain a percentage of the cap hit/salary, not a defined salary number. In your example, you could retain 50% of the cap hit ($3 million). However, that correlates to 50% of the actual salary paid on any given year. So in the years that he makes $4 million, Ottawa still has to pay out $2 million dollars for only a $3 million dollar cap hit. Again, why would they do that? $1 million dollars difference is not worth the effort, unless something big is sent along with it (1st or JP).

    So my contention is still that the Oilers will have to retain big money in any trade, but that they will only be able to trade to a team who actually WANTS Lucic, the player, at a reduced price, not a cap floor team just trying to eat up space.

  78. Professor Q says:

    Alpine: Wouldn’t make the team much better. Nuge would still be playing with scraps and underdeveloped prospects. One line teams always fail. You’d be getting Stone (and they can’t fit him in, let’s be serious) so that you can split up McDavid and Drai.

    I think Nuge’s line would be better than that, but hey, a Super Saiyan Line works for Colorado, so why not have an Ultra Instinct Line in Edmonton?

  79. ashley says:

    HugThePost: Maroon?

    Interesting……I hadn’t heard or read anything about Maroon; I thought he was just a good team guy

    Probably not, honestly, but I’m just trying to play Cassandra’s game. All three referenced individuals who wanted Hall gone were likely in management, not players.

  80. greenshifter says:

    Cassandra:
    Off LT’s piece in the Athletic today, who are the three people who wanted Hall gone that are no longer in the organization.

    I’m assuming Chiarelli is one.

    Is #2 McClellan?

    Who is #3.

    Hall. jk

  81. DasBavaria says:

    HugThePost,

    I remember reading somewhere (can’t find it, maybe someone else can help me out?) that Maroon wasn’t really well liked in the dressing room. He was rather outspoken and his teammates weren’t the biggest fans.

  82. Alpine says:

    Professor Q: I think Nuge’s line would be better than that, but hey, a Super Saiyan Line works for Colorado, so why not have an Ultra Instinct Line in Edmonton?

    Who would be on it? Lucic? Chiasson? Rattie? So no different than it is now.

    It actually doesn’t really work for Colorado. They have two more points than the Oilers.

    I don’t know why people continue to wish for this? It’s proven to not get teams very far. Drai’s a centre anyways so no need to put him on the wing at that point.

  83. Cassandra says:

    The Oilers don’t have the cap space to sign the best players. That is obvious.

    The good news is that it is relatively easy to find players who can score who are undervalued. Just do 5v5 pts/60 search and scan for names whose reputations don’t match their production. One thing that isn’t understood as well as it should be is how important opportunity is to production. As a consequence hockey people over value players who have been given opportunity and undervalue those that haven’t. This leads them to pay for season production without taken into account the widely different opportunities that players have. So ignore power play points and playing time and you’ll get undervalued players.

    Target list (using pts/60 at 5v5 since 2016-17) that seem to be undervalued by reputation

    Brett Connolly 2.06 pts/60 getting paid 1.5 M, UFA at end of the year
    Andre Burakovsky, 1.9 pts/60, 3M, RFA at end of year
    Oliver Bjorkstand 1.88 pts/60, 2.5 M for two more years
    Anthony Mantha, 1.88 pts/60, 3.3 M for one more year then RFA
    Jacub Vrana, 1.84 pts/60, RFA at end of year, 833 K now
    Ryan Dzingel, 1.81 pts/60
    Richard Panik, 1.78 pts/60

    Ryan Spooner, 1.6 pts/60 ??????? Buying him out is crazy talk
    Ivan Barbashev, 1.59 pts/60

    Guys like this can score almost as well as the more well known guys who cost way more. All these guys have better track records than Alex Chiasson even with the shooting percentage heater this year. Get as many of these guys as you can. Then go to the AHL and get the best players in the AHL. The best players in the AHL are better than the worst players in the NHL. The Oilers should have signed Brandon Pirri, they can still sign Daniel Carr or Reid Boucher or Alan Quine or Sam Carrick or whomever.

    And while we are at call up Joe Gambardella. He’s having a great season.

    Make room for these guys by sending Lucic to the moon and Puljujarvi to the AHL, Brodziak and Reider too. Over the past three years they have the worst scoring rates on the team. Worse than Khaira, worse than Kassian. Puljujarvi can be saved but Lucic cannot. We have Rattie but his track record isn’t that great. I would keep him over the true chaff but there are probably better bets.

    Out: Lucic, Puljujarvi, Brodziak, Rattie, Reider, Chiasson
    In: 6 guys with a track record of scoring

    Select on the offensive variable. Do it 13 times for forwards. That is how they should build the team.

  84. JimmyV1965 says:

    Alpine:
    Oilers should absolutely stay away from big ticket UFAs. Dzingel is about the highest they should aim. And at that, 2nd line types get 4 or 5 years at 4.5-5.5 mil, and I don’t even know if they can fit that.

    There are a lot of decent to great forwards available in UFA at this point so maybe the buyers market plus promises of McDavid/Drai/RNH as his centre can convince Dzingel to sign for 4 years x 4.25 or something. That would be one top six winger taken care of and you could move some cap and young assets to get another.

    I still like the Burakovsky route. Lot of potential there from his first couple seasons in WSH. Him and Dzingel wouldn’t cost much more than cap space and maybe an okay prospect and pick.

    I also like Silfverberg, Donskoi, Hagelin, and Wilson as potential buy low candidates.

    History had shown that signing expensive UFAs almost always ends in disaster. If you could get Dzingel for four or five years at $4.5 mill that would be okay, but he likely gets $5.5 to $6 mill over seven years.

  85. JimmyV1965 says:

    Primetime:
    YKOil,

    I think we are kind of on the same page, as I mentioned the only way to trade the contract is to retain salary.I was refuting that it is a contract that will be seen as sobeneficial to a cap floor team that it is worth the risk/effort for them to take it.

    Even in the scenario that you sent out, there is not a huge benefit to a cap floor team.

    1) When you retain salary, you also retain that portion of the cap hit.Therefore, you are already lessening the perceived value of trading for the contract for a cap floor team (ie. inflated cap hit to get to the floor).Withholding $3 million means his cap hit to Ottawa is also only $3 million.

    2) In actuality you retain a percentage of the cap hit/salary, not a defined salary number.In your example, you could retain 50% of the cap hit ($3 million).However, that correlates to 50% of the actual salary paid on any given year.So in the years that he makes $4 million, Ottawa still has to pay out $2 million dollars for only a $3 million dollar cap hit.Again, why would they do that?$1 million dollars difference is not worth the effort, unless something big is sent along with it (1st or JP).

    So my contention is still that the Oilers will have to retain big money in any trade, but that they will only be able to trade to a team who actually WANTS Lucic, the player, at a reduced price, not a cap floor team just trying to eat up space.

    I think the best way to trade Lucic is a three-way deal, with the third team keeping him at a salary of $1.5 to $2 mill per year. I think many teams would have interest at this salary. We would have to retain $2 to $3 mill per year. The key is finding a cap floor team willing to take on $1.5 to $2 mill in salary. What would this cost in assets?

  86. Cassandra says:

    Building a team for next year is hard, especially if you don’t want to sacrifice the future by trading the first or 2nd round picks, which should be off the table.

    A reasonable plan looks something like this:

    1) Buy out Lucic
    2) Sign free agent forward like Brett Connolly for around 3.5 M
    3) Trade Yamamoto for Oliver Bjorkstrand or equivalent
    4) Trade mystery item for Drake Berakovsky (not Benson, I want to keep him)
    5) Reclaim Spooner as a useful part
    6) Hope Koskinen can play

    But if these things happen you get a lineup that is reasonable

    Burakovsky–McDavid–Draisatl
    Connolly–RNH–Bjorkstrand (a 2nd line, sort of)
    Gambardella–Spooner–Puljujarvi
    Dregs

    Klefbom–Larsson
    Nurse–Russell/Benning/Persson
    Sekera/Jones–Benning/Persson

    I would watch this team. They might score some goals and not bore me to sleep.

  87. Klima's_Bucket says:

    frjohnk,

    Bingo.
    You are too smart Padre.

  88. Klima's_Bucket says:

    With Koivu’s injury, maybe the Wild would be interested in bringing back Brodziak for some more depth down the middle.
    Dare to dream.

  89. JimmyV1965 says:

    Cassandra:
    Building a team for next year is hard, especially if you don’t want to sacrifice the future by trading the first or 2nd round picks, which should be off the table.

    A reasonable plan looks something like this:

    1) Buy out Lucic
    2) Sign free agent forward like Brett Connolly for around 3.5 M
    3) Trade Yamamoto for Oliver Bjorkstrand or equivalent
    4) Trade mystery item for Drake Berakovsky (not Benson, I want to keep him)
    5) Reclaim Spooner as a useful part
    6) Hope Koskinen can play

    But if these things happen you get a lineup that is reasonable

    Burakovsky–McDavid–Draisatl
    Connolly–RNH–Bjorkstrand (a 2nd line, sort of)
    Gambardella–Spooner–Puljujarvi
    Dregs

    Klefbom–Larsson
    Nurse–Russell/Benning/Persson
    Sekera/Jones–Benning/Persson

    I would watch this team.They might score some goals and not bore me to sleep.

    I wouldn’t mind any of these guys, but I’m not paying Connolly $3.5 mill as a third line winger. If he was a centre sure. I’m not trading Yama for Bjorkstrand either. We also need a rock solid second line winger. If we fill the team with players like this we are asking them to play above their established levels. We know how that ends. Having said that, I would be happy with any of these guys at a reasonable cost, slotted in their established levels.

  90. RedNed says:

    Interesting post LT. What is it with Canadians and Churchill?

  91. Alpine says:

    JimmyV1965,

    Dzingel’s had 30, 40, and on pace for 60 points in his three years. That’s not a long enough track record to get paid like that. That’s TJ Oshie money and he was consistently getting 50+ points, was a US Olympian, etc etc.

    Gourde got 6 x 5.17 so maybe he gets close to that. Thank you Brisebois for setting the market on paying a guy for one good year. Atkinson 5.8 x 7, better track record than Dzingel. Marchessault 5 mil x 6 years, already had a 30 goal year in Florida and in the midst of a PPG season in Vegas.

    Backlund 5.3 x 6 years. Bailey 5 x 6 years. Little 5.3 x 6 years. Killorn 4.45 x 7 years, overpayment. Man did Tampa jerk around the market with Gourde and Killorn.

    I can’t see Dzingel getting 7 years unless it’s for a low cap hit. Most other comparisons got 4 or 5 years and above or below 5 mil. Boedker, Perreault, Bonino were middle six guys and they all got 4-5 years and under 4.5 mil.

    So I’m probably off by a bit with 4 x 4.5 for Dzingel but he’s just not as proven as the guys getting 5+ years and 5+ mil. Also look the UFA forward group. There’s a ton of mid 20s guys available and not every team has cap space so I dont see too many bidding wars outside of Stone, Duchene and Panarin when there’s enough second liners to go around for everyone.

  92. Oilpower says:

    This year’s second and next year’s first should both be in play, as long as your getting back player with term. Both picks are probably 4 years away from helping the team if they ever do help it. The core is young and in its prime. The goal should be compete next year not piss away prime core years

  93. dustrock says:

    DasBavaria:
    HugThePost,

    I remember reading somewhere (can’t find it, maybe someone else can help me out?) that Maroon wasn’t really well liked in the dressing room. He was rather outspoken and his teammates weren’t the biggest fans.

    Seem to recall him hanging out with McDavid outside of the games.

    There was a rumor he was calling out guys like Lucic for not playing like they’re getting $6m but who knows.

    As far as Hall goes, it’s hard to say. I’d guess McLellan and the fired assistants? Maybe Ference? Not sure who else it could be.

    Either Chia or T-Mac must have thought highly of Hall initially because they had McDavid live with him in his rookie year!

    On the other hand, nobody has really gotten into Georges Laraque’s comment a while back about how Hall was in rehab before he was traded and was kind of messed up and that’s one reason why Edmonton was open to moving him.

    It kinda felt like Laraque dropped a bomb but it never really went anywhere and now Hall is a Hart winner and it doesn’t matter.

  94. texmex says:

    Oilpower,

    This is how I feel as well, but not sure how it’s possible given some of the horrendous contracts the Oilers have on the books.

  95. oilsnc79 says:

    jtblack,

    Ditto

  96. dustrock says:

    From Daniel’s interview with Keith Gretzky:

    If or when he’s ready, how do you anticipate working him in under the salary cap?

    We can make it work. We’ve done our numbers and we know what we have to do. It won’t be pretty, but we’ll be OK if that means trading a guy. We’ll decide after Wednesday’s game (in Bakersfield) if he needs to stay down there. We’ll talk to him and the coaching staff down there and see how he is.

    Re Talbot & Chiasson

    What’s the likelihood that one or both will be traded?

    You don’t know. Like I said, we’re trying to make the playoffs. We’re looking at improving our club. But we’re also being ready if something goes south. We feel we still have a good team.

    Any contract talks with either guy?

    No.

    https://theathletic.com/814479/2019/02/12/qa-keith-gretzky-on-the-oilers-trade-deadline-plan-andrej-sekeras-return-and-jesse-puljujarvis-season/

  97. russ99 says:

    That Keith Gretzky interview on Athletic was excellent.

    Not sure what that “needed a big body” reasoning to call up Jesse was all about, maybe Hitch’s preference?

  98. Ribs says:

    dustrock: It kinda felt like Laraque dropped a bomb but it never really went anywhere and now Hall is a Hart winner and it doesn’t matter.

    The problem with the Laraque revelation was that it came from Laraque. He has been involved in so many batshit crazy things since he’s retired that no one knows what to believe from him any more.

  99. Jethro Tull says:

    dustrock: What’s the likelihood that one or both will be traded?

    You don’t know. Like I said, we’re trying to make the playoffs. We’re looking at improving our club. But we’re also being ready if something goes south. We feel we still have a good team.

    I know I don’t know. That’s why I asked.

    He feels like we still have a good team? Fire Chia for what? Keith Gretzky and Bob Nicholson standing behind the police tape with the megaphone yelling, “go back to your homes, there’s nothing to see.”

    The Oilers problems begin and end with an absolute refusal to admit any culpability and it permeates throughout the organisation. That and the absolute terrible optics of any situation they’re in or caused.

    “We fired Pete at the intermission. He alone has left us with a questionable roster and unmanageable cap hell. Just him. Nobody else.”

    “So where do we go from here?”

    “We still have a good team and can manage the cap. But I’m only interim GM and will have to make decisions by consensus until a new appointment. Like a boss.”

  100. Gerta Rauss says:

    DasBavaria:

    I remember reading somewhere (can’t find it, maybe someone else can help me out?) that Maroon wasn’t really well liked in the dressing room. He was rather outspoken and his teammates weren’t the biggest fans.

    It was Brian Burke on Stauffer’s show about 3 weeks ago-no one knows for sure how accurate the info is/was

    https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/the-front-runner-to-become-the-new-general-manager-of-the-edmonton-oilers-and-other-all-star-break-musings-9-things

  101. Cassandra says:

    JimmyV1965: I wouldn’t mind any of these guys, but I’m not paying Connolly $3.5 mill as a third line winger. If he was a centre sure. I’m not trading Yama for Bjorkstrand either. We also need a rock solid second line winger. If we fill the team with players like this we are asking them to play above their established levels. We know how that ends. Having said that, I would be happy with any of these guys at a reasonable cost, slotted in their established levels.

    This is kind of my point. You can put together a roster that looks reasonable but it probably means paying guys like Connolly at least that much, and it means trading Yamamoto and/or the first round pick (or more).

    As far as playing people above their established level of ability, I don’t believe in such things. Indeed, that is the lesson we should be drawing from Las Vegas. I think the gap between a 2nd and 3rd line player is meaningless in many cases. Likewise, I think the gap between the top of the AHL and the bottom of the NHL is small to vanishing.

    If this was not the case you would never see players come from the AHL and succeed in the NHL. But you do, not because they’ve improved but because what they were missing was the opportunity.

    What I do think, however, is that players should demonstrate their ability at one level before being put into the next most difficult situation.

  102. Jethro Tull says:

    russ99:
    That Keith Gretzky interview on Athletic was excellent.

    Not sure what that “needed a big body” reasoning to call up Jesse was all about, maybe Hitch’s preference?

    That right there should be grounds for dismissal.

    Had he said “we needed some skill that we felt Jesse could provide” then fine. But Keith was Asst. GM at the time and that is a damning indictment of how people in this organization see JP. As a big body. When you’re dressing Lucic, Kassian, Khiara, Draisaitl, Larsson, Nurse, Gravel. Moar Big!

  103. Cassandra says:

    Jethro Tull: That right there should be grounds for dismissal.

    Had he said “we needed some skill that we felt Jesse could provide” then fine.But Keith was Asst. GM at the time and that is a damning indictment of how people in this organization see JP.As a big body.When you’re dressing Lucic, Kassian, Khiara, Draisaitl, Larsson, Nurse, Gravel.Moar Big!

    I agree. That is a terrifying interview. KGretzky’s track record in Boston was already poor and now that interview full of nonsense. Anybody but Gretzky for general manager.

  104. RonnieB says:

    dustrock: Haven’t had a chance to check today but when we traded for him I seem to recall he was fizzling out a bit in Boston and after a hot start in NY he was pretty bad.

    If by fizzling out you mean 16 points in 20 games with NY and 41 in 59 games incl. his time with Boston…

  105. OriginalPouzar says:

    My goodness am I ever NOT on board with trading the 1st round pick – even to dispose of the Lucic contract.

    Lucic is likely the only contract where I would kind of be on board to bleed a material asset to dispose of, however, not that material.

  106. John Chambers says:

    Alpine,

    There are no easy answers for this offseason. Adding top talent should always be a priority.

  107. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wati, the first rounder plus cap retention, both?

    Seriously, are people on board with that to dispose of Lucic and his contract (or, apparently, must part of his contact)?

  108. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – All the talk about getting players in the off-season to make us better: at best there are a dozen names I’ve seen bandied about, and a lot of competition for these players.

    – It’s not easy getting guys to come to the Oil, even more so with the gong-show.:

    – I know where most 25 year olds (and their spouses) would play making the same multi-million$:

    https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/florida-hockey-fans-setup-thatll-make-canadian-jealous-203145633.html

  109. JimmyV1965 says:

    Alpine:
    JimmyV1965,

    Dzingel’s had 30, 40, and on pace for 60 points in his three years. That’s not a long enough track record to get paid like that. That’s TJ Oshie money and he was consistently getting 50+ points, was a US Olympian, etc etc.

    Gourde got 6 x 5.17 so maybe he gets close to that. Thank you Brisebois for setting the market on paying a guy for one good year. Atkinson 5.8 x 7, better track record than Dzingel. Marchessault 5 mil x 6 years, already had a 30 goal year in Florida and in the midst of a PPG season in Vegas.

    Backlund 5.3 x 6 years. Bailey 5 x 6 years. Little 5.3 x 6 years. Killorn 4.45 x 7 years, overpayment. Man did Tampa jerk around the market with Gourde and Killorn.

    I can’t see Dzingel getting 7 years unless it’s for a low cap hit. Most other comparisons got 4 or 5 years and above or below 5 mil. Boedker, Perreault, Bonino were middle six guys and they all got 4-5 years and under 4.5 mil.

    So I’m probably off by a bit with 4 x 4.5 for Dzingel but he’s just not as proven as the guys getting 5+ years and 5+ mil. Also look the UFA forward group. There’s a ton of mid 20s guys available and not every team has cap space so I dont see too many bidding wars outside of Stone, Duchene and Panarin when there’s enough second liners to go around for everyone.

    If you can get him cheap that’s great. I just don’t see it happening. I see Dzingel as a day 1 guy in free agency and that rarely works out. The bar has been set higher now with the Nylander contract. Is Dzingel worth $2 mill less than Nylander? Who knows. Maybe this is the year GMs show restraint in free agency. I wouldn’t hold my breath waiting for it.

  110. OriginalPouzar says:

    Dr. Taboggan:
    OriginalPouzar,

    I agree. I would not buyout anyone this summer. Just let it ride. We are not going to be competitive next year, no need to extend the bad contracts.

    I also think Spooner deserves a shot with a new coach. Spooner has a history of scoring in the NHL and is a decent skater. With the right coach he could be a decent middle six option.

    The coach not giving this player any opportunity to actually do the job he was acquired to do have been baffling to me. If they dispose of this player by buyout, retained salary transaction or bad contract back without giving him a chance to do what he does (which is what this team needs), I will side-eye glare Hitchock for eternity.

  111. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – Trading Benning at the deadline because he’stradeable would be a mistake IMO:

    – Only Larsson is better RHD (and russell).Jones, Bouchard, Persson etc aren’t better

    – Why don’t they play Nurse-Benning more?

    – But they probably do trade him, and slot in one of the shiny things who will go through the same learning curve as Benning did.

    – Healthy Sek solves a lot of trouble.

    I don’t disagree with the general theme of the post.

    With respect to your question re: Nurse/Benning – i think its because Benning has historically been quite good/decent in the third pairing but always struggled when moved up the lineup to play 2RD – this has led to Russell being forced in to that 2RD role year after year – Russell has had some decent stretches up there but always regresses back to his established abilities – its not his fault he is asked to bat higher than he should.

  112. OriginalPouzar says:

    Darth Tu:
    OriginalPouzar,

    I agree that Spooner needs another shot in the NHL, but won’t bringing him back up cause even more of a cap headache? H’e’s looked a lot better in Bakersfield over the last few games so I’d not be against him getting a shot – but will Hitch give him one? I’d staple him to McDavid or Drai for a few games to see what we really have going on.

    Spooner is too good for the AHL – he’s an NHL player.

    Well, bringing Spooner up adds a cap hit of $1,050,000 but subtract the cap hit of the player he is replacing – for example, if they send Jesse down, its adding $125K.

  113. OmJo says:

    Seriously man, this has been like 12 years of awful. That’s like 10 percent of your life!

    LOL.

  114. OriginalPouzar says:

    tileguy:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Would you not worry about upsetting the chemistry in the Bake if Manning and Petrovic are sent down?

    If there is no trade to open up the cap room, I think its likely that one is waived and assigned along with a forward and they run with 22 players on the NHL roster, at least in the short term.

    One d-man needs to go for Sekera’s assignment – the NHL team can’t carry 9 d-men.

    The D is “full” when Bear is back (and he is supposed to be this week):

    Lowe/Jones
    Lagesson/Bear
    Day/Stanton

    There is no roster limit in the AHL so they can go down and not play every game – the veteran can also give a guy like Stanton or Lowe a rest every once in a while.

    —————————

    With all that said, Gretzky’s interview by Bowman at The Athletic intimated a trade is likely when Sekera is activated.

  115. DasBavaria says:

    Gerta Rauss,

    Ahh. Thank you. You’re correct, we have no idea on how accurate that information is.

    At the same time, I’m not sure how reliable the info on Hall’s rehab rumor is either. But that isn’t anywhere near a good reason to deal low on an good to elite player. But then again, because Oilers.

  116. OriginalPouzar says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick:
    Why buyout Sekera if he can play?

    Buying out Sekera is an egregious way forward in my mind.

    Lets not forget how good this player is and that his best attribute is actually his brain – his skating and mobility have never been his best attributes and, so far, they don’t look materially diminished.

    He’s only 32 – he’s not that old, especially for a d-man.

  117. OriginalPouzar says:

    LMHF#1:
    Something that people need to get through their heads in the modern era:

    You should not and essentially cannot be attached to players that fit the following slots – they wind up costing too much:

    – Forwards 10-14
    – Defencemen 5-7

    These players should be changed out every year…or two years at max. They are widely available every single year, for only cash, and not that much of it.

    One of the Oilers’ biggest mistakes is constantly failing in this area. High end talent is easy to identify, low end talent is cheap, plentiful, and you can pick up enough bets that you’ll hit on some…the trick is in the middle. Finding the best and the best fit at a good price. A well-organized GM and pro scouting staff can orient themselves to spending nearly all their time on this.

    The Oilers could also really use the modern equivalent and attitude of this guy. They’ve been missing it for nearly 20 years now.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2786b2f17k

    Giving term to the bottom of the roster players should almost never happen.

  118. JimmyV1965 says:

    Cassandra: This is kind of my point.You can put together a roster that looks reasonable but it probably means paying guys like Connolly at least that much, and it means trading Yamamoto and/or the first round pick (or more).

    As far as playing people above their established level of ability, I don’t believe in such things.Indeed, that is the lesson we should be drawing from Las Vegas.I think the gap between a 2nd and 3rd line player is meaningless in many cases.Likewise, I think the gap between the top of the AHL and the bottom of the NHL is small to vanishing.

    If this was not the case you would never see players come from the AHL and succeed in the NHL.But you do, not because they’ve improved but because what they were missing was the opportunity.

    What I do think, however, is that players should demonstrate their ability at one level before being put into the next most difficult situation.

    What you say is true. But my concern is you have both Connolly and Bjorkstrand slated for the second line. We now need them both to play like second liners. That is not a recipe for success. If we had one of those guys on a second line with two legit top six forwards they are much more likely to succeed and we are not relying on them to produce. On good teams, players like this are not expected to produce. You give them an opportunity to play with established guys and it often elevates their game. We need a legit top six winger. Anything else is wishing and hoping.

  119. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – I see what your saying, but this is how I see them next year, slotted properly:

    Bear – sheltered 3rd pairing with a stud
    Jones – see above
    Lagesson – (Ibid)
    Persson – (Ibid)
    Bouchard – (Ibid)
    Yamamoto – on a scoring line with two bonafides
    Benson – start on 4rth like like Jar, and move up
    Marody – (see above)

    – Trading a Benning and Russell, and if Sek doesn’t come back, the solution isn’t to replace them with 3 of the 5 D above

    – Depending on Kailer’s wingers, he could be ok, and Benson and Marody as 4rth line perfect

    – None should be counted on to move the needle next year (IMO), and if you slot more than 1 or 2 of them into the lineup, your just asking for trouble, same as it ever was

    I’m not counting on any of them to move the needle next season – but one or two of them could be added to the bottom of the roster and, importantly, what the organization should have is NHL-ready (or very close thereto) skill percolating in the minor leagues creating great injury cover.

  120. JimmyV1965 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Wati, the first rounder plus cap retention, both?

    Seriously, are people on board with that to dispose of Lucic and his contract (or, apparently, must part of his contact)?

    I’m fully on board with trading the first round pick, but not to dump Lucic’s contract. Never.

  121. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer: Don’t buy out Sekera
    Trade him with retention if need be.We want these contracts to expire as quickly as possible.We are not a 3 mil FA player away from competing

    How about we play him in the NHL lineup considering he’s a plus NHL d-man?

  122. OriginalPouzar says:

    dustrock: Maybe we’re thinking of different players.Spooner had a couple of pretty good years on Boston and started hot on the Rangers, but he’s been replacement level the last few years otherwise, no?

    I haven’t looked at the numbers recently but I believe he’s provided top 6 production pretty much every year but this year.

  123. OriginalPouzar says:

    GMB3:
    If we could ship JP and a Second with Lucic to get rid of him, would you do it?

    No, no I would not.

  124. Primetime says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Wati, the first rounder plus cap retention, both?

    Seriously, are people on board with that to dispose of Lucic and his contract (or, apparently, must part of his contact)?

    NO!!!! That’s my point OP,

    We need to find a team that actually wants Lucic to play on their team, just at a discounted rate. If we have to throw in a sweetener AND eat salary cap (to entice a cap floor team) that’s crazy! We lose in two ways in that deal.

    Either that or full take back another bad contract that we feel may actually give SOME benefit to our lineup (as mentioned Ryan in Ottawa or Eriksson in Vancouver)

  125. jtblack says:

    John Chambers:
    Alpine,

    There are no easy answers for this offseason. Adding top talent should always be a priority.

    +1.

    The easy answer is DON’T compound what Peter did. next year should be more about continuing to clear Cap Space, get some kids in the lineup and know that 2020 is the year to be a top team. If a GM rushing the process or trades assets, the risk is that the Oilers continue to be a bubble team or non playoff team.

  126. London Jon says:

    I’m strongly against trading away the first rounder. Or Puljujarvi. We have to focus on the medium and long terms at the expense of this year and next year.

    We are a bottom third NHL team with a bottom third pipeline. And we’re up against the cap.

    It’s painful (again) but the only way out is to hard sell for assets at this deadline, draft well, tinker and wait out the shitty contracts that expire next year.

    We have a chance of contenting in the last 4 years of Connor’s contract and every decision should be focused towards those years.

  127. OriginalPouzar says:

    Alpine:
    dustrock,

    Spooner has his best year as a Bruin when they traded him. Here’s his EV pts/60 since 2013:

    BOS 13/14: 1.2
    BOS 14/15: 2.3
    BOS 15/16: 1.5
    BOS 16:17: 2.0
    BOS 17/18: 2.7
    NYR 17/18: 2.8
    NYR 18/19: 0.7
    EDM 18/18: 0.8

    Exactly! Aside from this year and his rookie year, he’s produced at levels that would be very welcome on this team.

    I know he had some solid linemates in Boston, however, I would be shocked if he does’t produce well about 1.5, if not 2.0 with Drai or McDavid – if given the real chance.

    Why is the coach wasting this asset?

    Did he pull an Aberg?

  128. RonnieB says:

    Boston is reported to be looking for some depth scoring and/or a 3rd line center. Now that Chiarelli is gone maybe they would be interested in re-acquiring Spooner. They would also be getting him at a lower cap hit than when they traded him.

  129. OriginalPouzar says:

    Cassandra:

    A reasonable plan looks something like this:

    1) Buy out Lucic

    Sorry – couldn’t read past here. There is no reasonable plan that includes a buyout of Lucic that isn’t in connection with CBA negotiations (amnesty).

    The 2nd and 4th years have cap hits of apx $5.5M – egregious – no way, no how.

  130. Cassandra says:

    JimmyV1965: What you say is true. But my concern is you have both Connolly and Bjorkstrand slated for the second line. We now need them both to play like second liners. That is not a recipe for success. If we had one of those guys on a second line with two legit top six forwards they are much more likely to succeed and we are not relying on them to produce. On good teams, players like this are not expected to produce. You give them an opportunity to play with established guys and it often elevates their game. We need a legit top six winger. Anything else is wishing and hoping.

    But this is just it. Both things can be true at the same time, i.e.

    1) Connolly and Bjorkstrand are third line players on good teams
    2) Connolly and Bjorkstrand would represent orders of magnitude improvement on the Oilers 2nd line.

    Which goes to show how deep the hole is. For myself, I don’t think you can confine yourself to scenarios such as the Oilers need to add a “legit” top 6 forward. First, they can’t afford such a player in either cap space or assets without sacrificing the future. Second, depending on the “legit” player we are talking about the player might not even be better than someone like Connolly or Bjorkstrand. Don’t pay for pedigree.

    Thus, instead of confining labels such as top six and bottom six, top pairing or top 4 D, which are artificial abstractions, adopt the simpler strategy of getting players that are quantifiably better than what you have now.

    Bjorkstrand, Connolly, Berakovsky, etc are likely to be cheap compared to their production. Get them or guys like them.

    And when you have roster space fill it with the best AHL scorers at league minimum, not NHL 4th liners for 1.5 or 2 M. The NHL 4th liner isn’t necessarily better but he is necessarily more expensive.

  131. Alpine says:

    JimmyV1965: If you can get him cheap that’s great. I just don’t see it happening. I see Dzingel as a day 1 guy in free agency and that rarely works out. The bar has been set higher now with the Nylander contract. Is Dzingel worth $2 mill less than Nylander? Who knows. Maybe this is the year GMs show restraint in free agency. I wouldn’t hold my breath waiting for it.

    The depth is very good for UFA forwards this year so I guess we’ll have to see how many teams are in for him. He’s 9th in PPG for unsigned UFAs but there’s some guys behind him who are more consistent.

    There’s roughly 20 guys over 0.5 PPG who are going to free agency right now, though some should be re-signed before. That doesn’t include some more famous names like Simmonds, Silfverberg, and Brassard.

    I’m not even that into Dzingel, I just see other guys who teams will be interested in as well.

  132. jtblack says:

    Cassandra: But this is just it.Both things can be true at the same time, i.e.

    1) Connolly and Bjorkstrand are third line players on good teams
    2) Connolly and Bjorkstrand would represent orders of magnitude improvement on the Oilers 2nd line.

    Which goes to show how deep the hole is.For myself, I don’t think you can confine yourself to scenarios such as the Oilers need to add a “legit” top 6 forward.First, they can’t afford such a player in either cap space or assets without sacrificing the future.Second, depending on the “legit” player we are talking about the player might not even be better than someone like Connolly or Bjorkstrand.Don’t pay for pedigree.

    Thus, instead of confining labels such as top six and bottom six, top pairing or top 4 D, which are artificial abstractions, adopt the simpler strategy of getting players that are quantifiably better than what you have now.

    Bjorkstrand, Connolly, Berakovsky, etc are likely to be cheap compared to their production.Get them or guys like them.

    And when you have roster space fill it with the best AHL scorers at league minimum, not NHL 4th liners for 1.5 or 2 M.The NHL 4th liner isn’t necessarily better but he is necessarily more expensive.

    +1

  133. Cassandra says:

    OriginalPouzar: Sorry – couldn’t read past here.There is no reasonable plan that includes a buyout of Lucic that isn’t in connection with CBA negotiations (amnesty).

    The 2nd and 4th years have cap hits of apx $5.5M – egregious – no way, no how.

    If Lucic is a subreplacement level player (which in my opinion he clearly is) then the buyout is an easy call.

    You buy him out because he saves you a roster space. Even in those players an AHL player at league minimum is worth the small additional cost to having Lucic on the team.

    He’s the worst player on the team. If you disagree I would love to hear a list of players you think contribute less than him. And if he is the worst player on the team you have to buy him out no matter the price.

  134. ChiliChunk says:

    But we’re also being ready if something goes south.

    *If* something goes south?

  135. Cassandra says:

    I’ll play the who is better than Lucic game.

    The obvious guys are all better (the keepers)

    I think Ty Rattie is better. He scores better. How much does he give back on D compared
    to Lucic? It can’t be much since Lucic is bad at defensive coverage. I much prefer Rattie and Rattie is on his way out of the NHL.

    Reider has 0 goals. Even with that his track record of scoring is better than Lucic. He can also kill penalties. I prefer Reider and Reider is playing his way out of the NHL.

    Khaira and Kassian are obviously better than Lucic. As is Chiasson.

    Brodziak is old and slow and may be done. Call that one a tossup. I’d rather have Brodziak.

    That leaves Malone and Cave. Two AHL players who aren’t really on the team.

    This is where we are. Lucic is the worst forward on the team with the worst forward depth in the NHL. That makes Lucic the worst player in the NHL. The logic is inescapable. I don’t see any argument for not buying him out.

  136. OriginalPouzar says:

    Malkin gets one game – won’t play tomorrow.

  137. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Re: Teams like ARI taking on Lucic

    One thing that is missing in the conversation is whether or not the player’s contract is insured.

    Bolland and Hossa’s contracts were insured and ARI doesn’t play any actual dollars for those players.

    They only “pay” in cap space, which they have in spades. Insurance pays the contract.

    Datsyuk’s contract was only cap space too as the player wasn’t paid because he didn’t play.

    ARI is not in a position to take on a bad contract with Actual Money tied to it.

  138. ashley says:

    OriginalPouzar: Buying out Sekera is an egregious way forward in my mind.

    Lets not forget how good this player is and that his best attribute is actually his brain – his skating and mobility have never been his best attributes and, so far, they don’t look materially diminished.

    He’s only 32 – he’s not that old, especially for a d-man.

    But he looks old.

  139. dustrock says:

    OriginalPouzar: Exactly!Aside from this year and his rookie year, he’s produced at levels that would be very welcome on this team.

    I know he had some solid linemates in Boston, however, I would be shocked if he does’t produce well about 1.5, if not 2.0 with Drai or McDavid – if given the real chance.

    Why is the coach wasting this asset?

    Did he pull an Aberg?

    a 2 point drop in production is weird. Confidence related?

    I get why the cycle continues.

    McLellan probably already pissed that Strome is traded, Spooner hasn’t been playing well at all in NYR, he talks to his friends there, they don’t like him.

    He plays him a bit, nothing really shakes. Spooner plays 4th line and benched. Confidence drops.

    Hitchcock comes in, talks to McLellan, plays him a bit, nothing really shakes. Plays 4th line and benched. Confidence continues to drop.

    So much of the game is mental it must be hard as a coach sometimes, especially with players who are still developing, to really get a fix on what they can provide.

  140. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    There are 3 forwards who have 5v5 GF% at or above 50% when McDavid is not on the ice.

    Chiasson 55%
    Rattie 50%
    Lucic 50%

  141. YKOil says:

    RonnieB:
    Boston is reported to be looking for some depth scoring and/or a 3rd line center. Now that Chiarelli is gone maybe they would be interested in re-acquiring Spooner. They would also be getting him at a lower cap hit than when they traded him.

    Well, to be fair, they traded him in-season; they had just signed him for a 1-yr deal at $2.825 million. Prior to that he was costing them $950k /yr.

    That said, beating my drum, if the Oilers retained a further $1.05 million his cost to the acquiring team is $2.05 million next year (negligible this year for most teams) and he may be quite desirable at that price point.

    Would like to think the Oilers could get a better deal BUT the Bruins have to pay for Heinen, McAvoy and Carlo next year – all due small/decent raises – so they may ONLY be looking for a rental and if they do pick up a Cap hit for next year they will want it to be small (imo).

    My best guess re: Bruins is that they will want to make a splash in free agency, I see them as players for Myers.

  142. JimmyV1965 says:

    jtblack: +1.

    The easy answer is DON’T compound what Peter did.next year should be more about continuing to clear Cap Space, get some kids in the lineup and know that 2020 is the year to be a top team.If a GM rushing the process or trades assets, the risk is that the Oilers continue to be a bubble team or non playoff team.

    If a GM comes in and trades assets, we may be a bubble team or lottery team next year. If GM comes in and does nothing, we will almost certainly be a bubble team or a lottery team next year. Why would the slow approach assure us of being a top team one year later in 2020? I see zero reason to believe that. Bringing kids into this lineup is a damn fine way to make sure they fail once they get here. I don’t understand why making trades is automatically bad. Other teams make trades and improve their teams. Just because the Oilers have failed miserably at this doesn’t make it so. Some of the best teams in the league got that way by making trades.

  143. OriginalPouzar says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Malkin gets one game – won’t play tomorrow.

    Maatta also out.

  144. JimmyV1965 says:

    London Jon:
    I’m strongly against trading away the first rounder. Or Puljujarvi. We have to focus on the medium and long terms at the expense of this year and next year.

    We are a bottom third NHL team with a bottom third pipeline. And we’re up against the cap.

    It’s painful (again) but the only way out is to hard sell for assets at this deadline, draft well, tinker and wait out the shitty contracts that expire next year.

    We have a chance of contenting in the last 4 years of Connor’s contract and every decision should be focused towards those years.

    Trading the first round pick does not automatically contradict the concept of building a better team through the draft. In fact, the right trade will make it easier to ease kids into the lineup and make the draft more successful.

  145. YKOil says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Re: Teams like ARI taking on Lucic

    One thing that is missing in the conversation is whether or not the player’s contract is insured.

    Bolland and Hossa’s contracts were insured and ARI doesn’t play any actual dollars for those players. They only “pay” in cap space, which they have in spades.Insurance pays the contract.

    Datsyuk’s contract was only cap space too as the player wasn’t paid because he didn’t play.

    ARI is not in a position to take on a bad contract with Actual Money tied to it.

    ARI is interesting because Bolland (inj) and Smith (rs) drop off their grid next year (some $6.92 million) and they’ll only have two years of Hossa and one year of Ribeiro left. Noting that Smith and Ribeiro represent actual $.

    If Cap goes up to $83 million they will be looking at a Cap floor of ~ $62 million. I see an easy $60 million in salary there, without Hossa/Ribeiro, so I have no doubt they can make minimum but it is a LOT closer than it looks at first glance.

    ARI will be shopping in the injured aisle again, and soon at that, I am sure. I don’t think they have active eyes on Lucic but I do think they have him on their radar. Just my opinion though.

  146. russ99 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Sorry – couldn’t read past here.There is no reasonable plan that includes a buyout of Lucic that isn’t in connection with CBA negotiations (amnesty).

    The 2nd and 4th years have cap hits of apx $5.5M – egregious – no way, no how.

    Say the cap goes up a million each year due to profits with Seattle coming into the league , how bad is it then? There’s also no indication that there will be an amnesty buyout in the next CBA, IMO that was specific to that CBA where the cap was corrected. I’d think there’s a better chance that the cap remains or moves up in the next CBA.

    I’d try to trade him first, sure, but maybe it wouldn’t hurt to have our next GM live closer to the vest for a few years, then have a big chunk of cap open up to add a major contributor towards hopefully by then a contending team.

  147. Lowetide says:

    Wilde:
    Here’s my (thorough and disturbing) report on Andre Sekera’s couple Bakersfield games, what I saw and what I wrote down:

    http://petropraxis.blogspot.com/2019/02/slick-reggie-wheels-stunts-on-stint.html

    This is just so good.

  148. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide: This is just so good.

    Agreed.

    Top drawer stuff

  149. hunter1909 says:

    JimmyV1965: Other teams make trades and improve their teams. Just because the Oilers have failed miserably at this doesn’t make it so. Some of the best teams in the league got that way by making trades.

    Of course Oilers management is serious when it comes to stupid. Given your baseless optimism re the Oilers management making trades that aren’t crippling the team, made because the Oilers management have proven incompetence. Therefore, of course you’re right because teams(Islanders, Bruins, Devils) all made themselves significantly better with trading with the committee of the dumbest, most ignorant, fake hockey minds this side of Alpha Centauri.

  150. digger50 says:

    LMHF#1:
    Something that people need to get through their heads in the modern era:

    You should not and essentially cannot be attached to players that fit the following slots – they wind up costing too much:

    – Forwards 10-14
    – Defencemen 5-7

    These players should be changed out every year…or two years at max. They are widely available every single year, for only cash, and not that much of it.

    One of the Oilers’ biggest mistakes is constantly failing in this area. High end talent is easy to identify, low end talent is cheap, plentiful, and you can pick up enough bets that you’ll hit on some…the trick is in the middle. Finding the best and the best fit at a good price. A well-organized GM and pro scouting staff can orient themselves to spending nearly all their time on this.

    The Oilers could also really use the modern equivalent and attitude of this guy. They’ve been missing it for nearly 20 years now.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2786b2f17k

    I must disagree. You are speaking like a business GM, not a team builder. The best teams, the best players of any skill level – get attached to each other. They work together, sacrifice together. You cant simple swap up out folks as if they are just contracts. Its a people game.

    Peter “wingers are easy to find”………. he swapped out many, hit on zero and now we have jobs for 6 NHL wingers. How did we get here?

  151. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Primetime: Still 66% of the contract money owed.Just don’t see the benefit for a team to do that without major incentive (i.e. 1st rounder or JP).Think we have a better chance of moving him to a team that feels he can still play, but wants him at a lower hit, so we retain as much as possible.

    He isn’t playing that poorly, and he’s Lucic. Nobody brings more power forward than him, his possession numbers are good, if he keeps at .5PPG he is what he was. He is also a professional off the the ice, where many heavyweights have ‘issues’ and aren’t team leaders.

    Maybe they can’t move him, but I see a few young teams lacking a player like that that could benefit from what he brings. At 66% cash cost to cap hit it’s not bad. Lots of players have to be paid in the 3M range now in cash.

    Not impossible, if Chiarelli or MacT aren’t doing the deal imo. Resist Oiler ptsd.

  152. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    OriginalPouzar: Buying out Sekera is an egregious way forward in my mind.

    Lets not forget how good this player is and that his best attribute is actually his brain – his skating and mobility have never been his best attributes and, so far, they don’t look materially diminished.

    He’s only 32 – he’s not that old, especially for a d-man.

    Exactly. So I don’t understand why he was listed as a buyout in LTs intro
    I was a Sek fan even when he played for the Canes!!

  153. Scungilli Slushy says:

    JimmyV1965: I would much rather spend $8 mill on one exceptional winger than $8 mill on three mediocre to okay wingers. And I would trade for an already signed guy, not a UFA.

    Someone posted a link (apologies can’t remember) to a piece saying hockey is an elite player driven game.

    So yes focusing on impact players is the key (best player wins the trade from long ago) and that the Oilers have been awful at finding the easiest players to acquire shouldn’t make that idea unpalatable.

    Deep teams that lack top end talent are President Cup contenders, not Stanley Cup contenders, usually.

  154. RonnieB says:

    ashley: But he looks old.

    Bouchard looks older !!

  155. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Oddspell:
    I think Oilers targets in UFA should be Silfverberg and Jensen.

    Should hopefully be able to get both for a reasonable sum, and combined with a shrewd trade for a winger from a cap crunched contender, would yield a vastly improved team. Now can we fit all that in with our own cap crunch and assets?

    Silferberg is 29 next season and is a limited offensively player. His peak is .5 PPG and he’s on the downward slope , he’ll be 4M plus. He killed us in the playoffs, small sample size alert.

  156. Scungilli Slushy says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick: Exactly. So I don’t understand why he was listed as a buyout in LTs intro
    I was a Sek fan even when he played for the Canes!!

    That has had 2 seasons less wear and tear. If he’s not fragile now it may extend his career as a skill player who has been a good skater.

  157. OriginalPouzar says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Joel Persson with an early assist for Vaxjo as he continues to produce.

    Last I checked, he was in apx 27% of Vaxjo’s goals, up from 23% last year when the team had Elia Petersson.

    As an aside, the goal was scored by Roman Horak and also assisted by Kris Versteeg – the “all Oiler connection” goal!

    After a number of games where Persson’s ice time was down 4-5 minutes, today he led Vaxjo in ice with just a shade under 22 minutes.

  158. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilers scouting the Bruins again tonight and they have been at the Providence games as well.

    Boston has RW depth issues (Backes is their top natural RW tonight with Pastrnak out – out for a few weeks too).

    I could see Chiasson for a prospect deal in the next few weeks.

  159. OmJo says:

    who: Benning is a 3RD. The Oilers have Klefbom, Larrson, Nurse, Russelland Sekera (if healthy) ahead of him on the depth chart. They also have Jones, Bear Lagesson, Bouchard and Peerson coming. Jones is already better than Benning, in my opinion. Benning earns 1.9 million next year as a 6/7 dman. Seems like an easy decision to me.
    Why are you so scared of trading this player? Do you still see him as a 2RD?
    We have plenty of potential replacements for him in the system already. And most of them will be 1 million dollars cheaper.

    $1.9M for a 3RD isn’t bad. $4M for a 3LD is a lot worse. And Benning is only 24/25 years old. Still young enough to become a player.

    I’d rather Benning be here and Jones et al. have to compete with him for that roster spot instead of leaving 3RD open and letting 5 rookies fight for it. If they beat him out, you waive him and free up $1M in cap space or trade him. It encourages all of them to get better over the summer and at training camp.

  160. OmJo says:

    dustrock: Haven’t had a chance to check today but when we traded for him I seem to recall he was fizzling out a bit in Boston and after a hot start in NY he was pretty bad.

    His last 3 seasons in Boston
    15-16 80 games, 0.61ppg
    16-17 78 games, 0.50ppg
    17-18 20 games, 0.64ppg
    20 games, 0.80ppg with Rangers

    18-19 16 games, 0.13ppg
    25 games, 0.12ppg with Oilers

    Wouldn’t really call that fizzling out in Boston. That said I didn’t look at his game log before being traded. Something must have happened to him this past summer because that’s a massive crash.

  161. Alpine says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Someone posted a link (apologies can’t remember) to a piece saying hockey is an elite player driven game.

    So yes focusing on impact players is the key (best player wins the trade from long ago) and that the Oilers have been awful at finding the easiest players to acquire shouldn’t make that idea unpalatable.

    Deep teams that lack top end talent are President Cup contenders, not Stanley Cup contenders, usually.

    Oilers have the top end talent though, that’s the thing. The lack of depth is actively hurting their big three down the middle and they can’t upgrade their D either. So sinking 8 mil (Stone might actually get 10) into one player only really fixes one line.

    It’s also a total pipe dream. They literally can’t fit a guy like that in. I don’t even know why it’s being talked about.

  162. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV1965: I’m fully on board with trading the first round pick, but not to dump Lucic’s contract. Never.

    I have been pretty express against trading the first round pick, however, of course, if the “right trade” presented itself, trade away.

    Of course, at least for me, using the pick as the sweetener to divest of Lucic is egregious on its own let alone adding in salary retention (when cap space is the reason for the trade in the first place).

  163. OriginalPouzar says:

    jtblack: +1.

    The easy answer is DON’T compound what Peter did.next year should be more about continuing to clear Cap Space, get some kids in the lineup and know that 2020 is the year to be a top team.If a GM rushing the process or trades assets, the risk is that the Oilers continue to be a bubble team or non playoff team.

    Agree, 100% – said more concisely than I have been able to. Good post.

  164. OriginalPouzar says:

    RonnieB:
    Boston is reported to be looking for some depth scoring and/or a 3rd line center. Now that Chiarelli is gone maybe they would be interested in re-acquiring Spooner. They would also be getting him at a lower cap hit than when they traded him.

    Oilers scouts are at the Bruins’ game tonight and have been to watch Providence – Pastrnak is out for a few weeks now and their top natural RW is Backes – I think they will be looking to rent Chiasson and the Oilers are likely to get a B- level prospect from the AHL back.

  165. OriginalPouzar says:

    Cassandra: If Lucic is a subreplacement level player (which in my opinion he clearly is) then the buyout is an easy call.

    You buy him out because he saves you a roster space.Even in those players an AHL player at league minimum is worth the small additional cost to having Lucic on the team.

    He’s the worst player on the team.If you disagree I would love to hear a list of players you think contribute less than him.And if he is the worst player on the team you have to buy him out no matter the price.

    I am going to disagree – i would say that, in the 2019 calendar year, he he has provided more than Rieder, Brodziak, Cave, Khaira on some nights.

  166. jtblack says:

    JimmyV1965: Bringing kids into this lineup is a damn fine way to make sure they fail once they get here. I don’t understand why making trades is automatically bad.

    ” Bringing kids into this lineup is a damn fine way to make sure they fail once they get here. I don’t understand why making trades is automatically bad. ”

    Why is bringing kids into the lineup automatically bad?

    I not saying RUSH kids into the lineup. I am saying full time JP. KY if ready. Bouchard and Benson full time or as earned. The REASON to bring kids in is that they are on ELC’s and are cheap labor.

    I have no problem with a good trade. But they are hard to execute. We have had multiple GM’s give up value or give away talent. It’s not easy to say to other GM’s “Take my crap, while giving me a Top 6 F in return.”

  167. OriginalPouzar says:

    russ99: Say the cap goes up a million each year due to profits with Seattle coming into the league , how bad is it then? There’s also no indication that there will be an amnesty buyout in the next CBA, IMO that was specific to that CBA where the cap was corrected. I’d think there’s a better chance that the cap remains or moves up in the next CBA.

    I’d try to trade him first, sure, but maybe it wouldn’t hurt to have our next GM live closer to the vest for a few years, then have a big chunk of cap open up to add a major contributor towards hopefully by then a contending team.

    I wasn’t suggesting that there would be amnesty buyouts as part of the new CBA – I was stating that buying him out without them is a non-starter for me.

    The buyout doesn’t even open up cap space – it opens up about $2.5M in years 1 and 3 (a massive cap hit of apx $3.5M stays) but, in years 2 and 4, the cap savings is apx $500K and there is a dead cap hit of apx $5.5M.

    The less than 50% cap savings in years 1 and 3 can’t even really be spend given they go away in subsequent years.

  168. OriginalPouzar says:

    OmJo: $1.9M for a 3RD isn’t bad. $4M for a 3LD is a lot worse. And Benning is only 24/25 years old. Still young enough to become a player.

    Most will say that, given his age, he is what he will be, however, we just saw a great example of how different players can develop at such different paces – Erik Gustafsson just established himself this year as an NHL d-man and is looking like a legit top 4 guy. He turns 27 in a month. At Benning’s age, he had been a failure at the NHL level and was toiling in the minor leagues.

    I don’t see Benning materially improving his play, however, it is definitely not out of the question – as we see.

    Yes, yes, Glovejuice, slow boots….

  169. oilinthepeg says:

    So…
    If Gretzky thinks that the team is ‘good’.
    Like… what do you even do with that?
    I can’t even with these people.
    Clean house.
    All of it.
    Please hire some intelligent humans to run this franchise.

  170. Glovjuice says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Buyout Spooner and Manning – no, no, no, no, no.

    Why extend cap hits beyond the one season of term they have left?

    I’d prefer to place Manning in the AHL with a cap savings of $1,075,000 next season – if nothing else it provides a veteran presence for the kids (the Stanton) and some injury cover for call-ups.Or else retain up to $1M and trade him for cap space.

    Spooner is an NHL player and needs to be given a real shot in the top 6 with the Oilers so management can ascertain if he can provide exactly what this team needs and exactly what he has brought through his career – top 6 production as a complementary player on a scoring line.

    He has done that year after year after year but he has been given no chance to do that as an Oiler – 2 games with Nuge where they got caved and then, boom, relegated to the bottom 6 and often the 4th line.

    He’s not a “line driver” but he can produce as a complimentary player with talented linemates.

    The coach is failing the organization by not giving this player a chance.

    Buyouts are bad business to start with.Buyouts for players that could help if put in a position to succeed are egregious.

    Yup, I still hate the Spooner trade but not givhim a shot with 97 and buying him out is massively egregious for sure. Oilers are a total joke. The fact that we even are talking about this is fucked. Totally fucked.

  171. godot10 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – Trading Benning at the deadline because he’stradeable would be a mistake IMO:

    – Only Larsson is better RHD (and russell).Jones, Bouchard, Persson etc aren’t better

    – Why don’t they play Nurse-Benning more?

    – But they probably do trade him, and slot in one of the shiny things who will go through the same learning curve as Benning did.

    – Healthy Sek solves a lot of trouble.

    If one gets a decent offer for Benning, the Oilers should trade him. The Oilers have Manning signed for next year, and Persson, and Bouchard, and Bear, and Jones, and probably Berglund. #3RD has a lot of cover for the position if Benning is traded.

    Mathematically, it makes absolutely zero sense to buyout Manning. His buyout cap hit is about $750K over two years, vs $1.1 million for one year buried in the minors.

    Extending his cap impact to two year would be just plain dumb.

    #6 or #7 D, a trade with $1 million retained, or buried in the minors are all significantly better options.

  172. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Oilpower:
    This year’s second and next year’s first should both be in play, as long as your getting back player with term. Both picks are probably 4 years away from helping the team if they ever do help it. The core is young and in its prime. The goal should be compete next year not piss away prime core years

    Yes and that the core is so young I think there is a window to trade a first sensibly, but given this season and this draft this year’s has to bring a significant acquisition.

    When thinking about wingers one thing that must be kept in mind is that Connor and Leon are young centres and not defensively responsible.

    Whoever they acquire needs to complement the existing players, not need to be babysat.

    Connor and Leon don’t need to be doing the dirty work, it should be opposite. Stone is a two way player so he’s a no brainer. Nuge can do it for one of them.

    With two lines with a solid base who fills the third hole is not as critical. The same problem is at 2RD. There is no reasonable player to fill that hole.

    LT says 9, I say 2 key players and the rest are what should be a lot easier and cheaper for a competent org, including good farm options for non key roles.

  173. JimmyV1965 says:

    hunter1909: Of course Oilers management is serious when it comes to stupid. Given your baseless optimism re the Oilers management making trades that aren’t crippling the team, made because the Oilers management have proven incompetence. Therefore, of course you’re right because teams(Islanders, Bruins, Devils) all made themselves significantly better with trading with the committee of the dumbest, most ignorant, fake hockey minds this side of Alpha Centauri.

    If the next Oilers GM is as incompetent as the previous GMs it really doesn’t matter if they make trades or not. The team will continue to be a shit show either way.

  174. Scungilli Slushy says:

    godot10: If one gets a decent offer for Benning, the Oilers should trade him.The Oilers have Manning signed for next year, and Persson, and Bouchard, and Bear, and Jones, and probably Berglund.#3RD has a lot of cover for the position if Benning is traded.

    Mathematically, it makes absolutely zero sense to buyout Manning.His buyout cap hit is about $750K over two years, vs $1.1 million for one year buried in the minors.

    Extending his cap impact to two year would be just plain dumb.

    #6 or #7 D, a trade with $1 million retained, or buried in the minors are all significantly better options.

    Buyouts should be last chance Texaco. A good coach can get enough out of decent players to make it work, a good GM can move players with NHL experience that aren’t ancient or can’t skate.

    I ‘expect ‘ a Good New Shiny GM, and Coach. We all deserve it.

  175. godot10 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – In a subsequent response to OP, I went through this, but you ask a good question.

    – The hope is that Jones, Bear, Lagesson, Bouchard, Peersoon, etc will eventually be better than him, but they aren’t now

    – If you trade Benning, your gifting his slot to one of them.And if Sek is not 100%, gifting another spot to one of them.I’m not enamoured with Russell or Benning per se, but they are better than anything in our system still IMO.We want a better D corps next year than this year, not develop D in the NHL next year.So bring up one of them max.

    – If you knew that Sek was healthy, I could see breaking in one of them and trading Benning

    Brandon Manning is under contract and has played right D in his career. The Oilers don’t have to trade Benning, but if they get a good offer, they should.

  176. JimmyV1965 says:

    jtblack: ” Bringing kids into this lineup is a damn fine way to make sure they fail once they get here. I don’t understand why making trades is automatically bad. ”

    Why is bringing kids into the lineup automatically bad?

    I not saying RUSH kids into the lineup.I am saying full time JP.KY if ready. Bouchard and Benson full time or as earned.The REASON to bring kids in is that they are on ELC’s and are cheap labor.

    I have no problem with a good trade. But they are hard to execute. We have had multiple GM’s give up value or give away talent.It’s not easy to say to other GM’s “Take my crap, while giving me a Top 6 F in return.”

    We have exactly one line capable of supporting a prospect. Put a kid with McDavid and Drai and they are set up for success. Put a kid on a line with RNH and Lucic, or whatever plug you insert, is not setting them up for success.

    Just because the Oilers have failed miserably at trading does not mean this a bad strategy. It means the Oiler mngt group has been incompetent. Bob Mackenzie remarked in a tweet a couple weeks ago that he has never seen a GM lose so many trades. The Oilers are the outlier.

  177. --hudson-- says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Someone posted a link (apologies can’t remember) to a piece saying hockey is an elite player driven game.

    So yes focusing on impact players is the key (best player wins the trade from long ago) and that the Oilers have been awful at finding the easiest players to acquire shouldn’t make that idea unpalatable.

    Deep teams that lack top end talent are President Cup contenders, not Stanley Cup contenders, usually.

    I read that link yesterday and not sure it would hold up under any scrutiny. The residuals on all the plots were so poor I wouldn’t draw any conclusions from them.

    Regardless maximizing the “strong link” players is the same as minimizing the “weak link” players so long as you consider caphits. I liked the approach Cassandra put forth though. Reminiscent of what the Rangers tried a couple years ago.

  178. pts2pndr says:

    Washingtron:
    May all these things come to pass! (Especially that Looch one, even if you lose the first rounder you can pay someone who is already at least mostly developed for the McD cluster)

    Paying a first rounder is absolutel idocy in my opinion! We need value contracts going forward. This years first rounder will be in all probability a top 10 and if that is the case giving it away to get rid of lucic is throwing good money after bad!

  179. OriginalPouzar says:

    I really can’t believe that intelligent fans get bent out of shape, even a little, bit when Nicholson and then Gretzky say things they think the team is good, clearly need to make some changes and some moves, but they like the team – of course that is what they are going to say.

    Does anyone expect management and senior management to get in front of the press and say this team is rotten, he have 5 keepable players and need to make major changes?

  180. OriginalPouzar says:

    Glovjuice: Yup, I still hate the Spooner trade but not givhim a shot with 97 and buying him out is massively egregious for sure. Oilers are a total joke. The fact that we even are talking about this is fucked. Totally fucked.

    That one is on the coach – 100%.

  181. JimmyV1965 says:

    oilinthepeg:
    So…
    If Gretzky thinks that the team is ‘good’.
    Like… what do you even do with that?
    I can’t even with these people.
    Clean house.
    All of it.
    Please hire some intelligent humans to run this franchise.

    Honestly, what else can he say? The team sucks. I’m sure that would resonate well with the players.

  182. godot10 says:

    Cassandra: If Lucic is a subreplacement level player (which in my opinion he clearly is) then the buyout is an easy call.

    You buy him out because he saves you a roster space.Even in those players an AHL player at league minimum is worth the small additional cost to having Lucic on the team.

    He’s the worst player on the team.If you disagree I would love to hear a list of players you think contribute less than him.And if he is the worst player on the team you have to buy him out no matter the price.

    I’m not buying out Lucic. He can sit in the pressbox, and pick up practise pucks for 4 years. And spend half the year away from home. He will be well paid to do that.

    A buyout makes no sense. It gains nothing, and only extends the pain of his contract.

  183. Sierra says:

    OriginalPouzar: Exactly!Aside from this year and his rookie year, he’s produced at levels that would be very welcome on this team.

    I know he had some solid linemates in Boston, however, I would be shocked if he does’t produce well about 1.5, if not 2.0 with Drai or McDavid – if given the real chance.

    Why is the coach wasting this asset?

    Did he pull an Aberg?

    What are Spooner’s GF% over those seasons?

  184. leadfarmer says:

    Rittich has not been good lately. Looks like goalering is hurting the
    Flames again

  185. LMHF#1 says:

    digger50: I must disagree. You are speaking like a business GM, not a team builder. The best teams, the best players of any skill level – get attached to each other. They work together, sacrifice together. You cant simple swap up out folks as if they are just contracts. Its a people game.

    Peter “wingers are easy to find”………. he swapped out many, hit on zero and now we have jobs for 6 NHL wingers. How did we get here?

    I would never claim that Connor McDavid’s wingers are easy to find. That’s a moronic approach.

    Sather absolutely changed out players on a group renowned for its togetherness.

    That was also before the FA+cap era.

    There are zero good teams hauling around a multi-year bottom 1/3 of players. It costs too much.

  186. Oilman99 says:

    OriginalPouzar: The coach not giving this player any opportunity to actually do the job he was acquired to do have been baffling to me.If they dispose of this player by buyout, retained salary transaction or bad contract back without giving him a chance to do what he does (which is what this team needs), I will side-eye glare Hitchock for eternity.

    Spooner was given chances on various lines, and did Didely Sqat, his defensive play was poor, his play making was no better, hence waivers,and a trip to the Bake. No other team thought enough of him, it seems Oiler fans over rate the value of marginal players, which I would you are doing Spooner. Maybe his confidence will be restored playing in the AHL,but a recall does not seem warranted unless he improves markedly.

  187. OriginalPouzar says:

    Rittich starting to leak bad goals.

    I hope this continues.

  188. GMB3 says:

    Tampa is outrageously good to watch

  189. Ryan says:

    LMHF#1: I would never claim that Connor McDavid’s wingers are easy to find. That’s a moronic approach.

    Sather absolutely changed out players on a group renowned for its togetherness.

    That was also before the FA+cap era.

    There are zero good teams hauling around a multi-year bottom 1/3 of players. It costs too much.

    Agreed with keeping the entire 4rth line and 3rd line wingers preferably young and cheap.

    Offense peaks at 24… why pay money and term to old vets on the decline?

  190. OriginalPouzar says:

    Sierra: What are Spooner’s GF% over those seasons?

    Actually – pretty damn sparkling for the most part.

    2013/14 – 60% and a GF% of 7.62

    2014/15 – 50% and a GF% of 4.24

    2015/16 – 50.67% and a GF% of – 0.43

    2016/17 – 52.5% and a GF% of 5.81

    2017/18 (Boston) – 66.67% and a GF% of 5.21

    2017/18 (Boston) – 44.83% and a GF% of -3.25

  191. Chief Inspector says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Rittich starting to leak bad goals.

    I hope this continues.

    +1

  192. flyfish1168 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Rittich starting to leak bad goals.

    I hope this continues.

    Its becoming the norm after he signs a big fat contract

  193. YKOil says:

    OriginalPouzar: Oilers scouts are at the Bruins’ game tonight and have been to watch Providence – Pastrnak is out for a few weeks now and their top natural RW is Backes – I think they will be looking to rent Chiasson and the Oilers are likely to get a B- level prospect from the AHL back.

    Bruins have a fair number of these, I like Forsbacka Karlsson (22 – RH – C/RW – drafted 2/45) but guessing we get Senyshyn (who is not doing well).

    Not a fan of Fitzgerald (but just on spec so it isn’t like I know anything) and Cehlarik, Frederic and Studnicka are too high up the food chain for Chiasson.

    Wonder if Spooner might be the get; albeit the wrong wing. As noted, if Spooner, pretty much anything is a win.

  194. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilman99: Spooner was given chances on various lines, and did Didely Sqat, his defensive play was poor, his play making was no better, hence waivers,and a trip to the Bake. No other team thought enough of him, it seems Oiler fans over rate the value of marginal players, which I would you are doing Spooner. Maybe his confidence will be restored playing in the AHL,but a recall does not seem warranted unless he improves markedly.

    33 minutes with Drai and 25 with McDavid – positive numbers with both in the small sample.

    He has not been given the opportunity in the top 6 with either of the team’s top 2 offensive players.

    Nope, no team claimed him for the $3.1M – but there is a big difference between adding that cap commitment and already having it and putting the player in a position to succeed – that is a job of a coach and Hitchcock has failed, utterly and completely.

    The organization needs to at the very least give it a chance – the team is in desperate need of wingers to provide secondary scoring and they have a player under contract for next year, at 27 years old, with a career history of doing exactly that.

    As an aside, he has looked very good at the AHL level – elite – too good for that level.

  195. OriginalPouzar says:

    YKOil: Bruins have a fair number of these, I like Forsbacka Karlsson (22 – RH – C/RW – drafted 2/45) but guessing we get Senyshyn (who is not doing well).

    Not a fan of Fitzgerald (but just on spec so it isn’t like I know anything) and Cehlarik, Frederic and Studnicka are too high up the food chain for Chiasson.

    Wonder if Spooner might be the get; albeit the wrong wing.As noted, if Spooner, pretty much anything is a win.

    Thanks for the info on the Bruins’ prospects – I know nothing about their system. Chiasson has but one goal in the last couple of months – the return won’t be great – B- prospect at best I would think. Hopefully its at least a player with some waiver exemption time left.

    I would really like the org to give Spooner a legit chance to succeed, however, if that isn’t going to happen this year then, yes, a disposition that has no penalty (no retention, no buyout, no bad contract back) would be fine.

    If they can’t dispose of the contract clean, lets allow the player a fresh start at camp with the new coach.

  196. Glovjuice says:

    Cassandra:
    I’ll play the who is better than Lucic game.

    The obvious guys are all better (the keepers)

    I think Ty Rattie is better.He scores better.How much does he give back on D comparedto Lucic?It can’t be much since Lucic is bad at defensive coverage.I much prefer Rattie and Rattie is on his way out of the NHL.

    Reider has 0 goals. Even with that his track record of scoring is better than Lucic.He can also kill penalties.I prefer Reider and Reider is playing his way out of the NHL.

    Khaira and Kassian are obviously better than Lucic.As is Chiasson.

    Brodziak is old and slow and may be done.Call that one a tossup.I’d rather have Brodziak.

    That leaves Malone and Cave.Two AHL players who aren’t really on the team.

    This is where we are.Lucic is the worst forward on the team with the worst forward depth in the NHL.That makes Lucic the worst player in the NHL.The logic is inescapable.I don’t see any argument for not buying him out.

    Which prescient being from this fine place proclaimed that Lucic is not worth a 7th pick ? So funny that they were so fucking correct.

  197. OmJo says:

    pts2pndr: Paying a first rounder is absolutel idocy in my opinion! We need value contracts going forward. This years first rounder will be in all probability a top 10 and if that is the case giving it away to get rid of lucic is throwing good money after bad!

    I’m gonna play devil’s advocate here, even though I’m also mostly against trading the 1st rounder for the sole purpose of getting rid of Lucic.

    I agree that we need value contract, but 6 million reasons why we need value contracts is because of the Lucic contract. If you can shed that and sign 2-3 players with that cap hit, you theoretically make the team better right now.

    I’d be okay with trading this years first conditionally to remove Lucic from the team – with no salary retention, on the condition that if the pick moves up in the draft lottery, it changes to next years 1st and 4th. If an Oilers GM could pull that off that would be something else.

  198. OmJo says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I really can’t believe that intelligent fans get bent out of shape, even a little, bit when Nicholson and then Gretzky say things they think the team is good, clearly need to make some changes and some moves, but they like the team – of course that is what they are going to say.

    Does anyone expect management and senior management to get in front of the press and say this team is rotten, he have 5 keepable players and need to make major changes?

    There’d be infinite more outrage if they said that, too. Idk what fans are expecting… obvious PR is obvious. The team still has a statistical chance at making the playoffs so expecting them to come out and say they’re going to be sellers at this point in the season isn’t reasonable. They still have to fill seats with butts.

  199. flea says:

    Good night for the Oil on the out of town scoreboard. St L wins but the Wild, Hawks and Avs all lose in regulation. Hope the Knights can take down the Yotes

    Incredible the Oilers are still very much alive in this race. But they’ll need a 5 or 6 game win streak minimum at some point to have a shot. They haven’t shown that ability yet this year.

    Flames are hitting their late season swoon here too. I think the Knights and Sharks both would beat them in a 7 game series.

    Oilers wouldn’t stand much of a chance with either of those teams either.

  200. Glovjuice says:

    OriginalPouzar: Most will say that, given his age, he is what he will be, however, we just saw a great example of how different players can develop at such different paces – Erik Gustafsson just established himself this year as an NHL d-man and is looking like a legit top 4 guy.He turns 27 in a month.At Benning’s age, he had been a failure at the NHL level and was toiling in the minor leagues.

    I don’t see Benning materially improving his play, however, it is definitely not out of the question – as we see.

    Yes, yes, Glovejuice, slow boots….

    He’s maybe a six D with a plus lefty five but that is it. And, that’s a stretch (short little strides and
    lack of D zone corner retrieval speed and all 🐌).

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