Here Come the People in Grey

Leon Draisaitl reminds me of multiple Habs of my youth. I don’t ever mention Jean Beliveau (hockey’s DiMaggio) but it’s safe to speak the name of one Peter Mahovlich. Leon’s current boxcars (35-36-61) are similar to 1970-71 Pete (35-26-51) at about the same age. Last night the Oilers grabbed a point, losing in a shootout to the Arizona Coyotes. Leon drew the key assists on both regulation goals and scored in the shootout. That pass to Nuge was incredible.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group. Outstanding offer is here.

  • New Lowetide: How can the Oilers successfully sell the new regime to a fan base that is openly angry?
  • New Jonathan Willis: Oilers trade deadline primer: Focus should be on moves that make life easier for the next GM
  • Lowetide: Cam Talbot’s Oilers career a disappointment save one beautiful spring.
  • Jonathan Willis: Edmonton’s trade for Sam Gagner is a gamble well worth making.
  • Jonathan Willis: Inside the success of the Bakersfield Condors, and what it means for Edmonton
  • Lowetide: The Oilers sure have a lot of problems, but there is a simple solution.
  • Jonathan Willis: Taking stock of Oilers positives as they enter the final third of a dismal 2018-19 season.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Keith Gretzky on the Oilers trade deadline plan, Andrej Sekera’s return and Jesse Puljujarvi’s season
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ potential roster upheaval might set a record for summer activity
  • Jonathan Willis: Teams should beware of these players at the 2019 NHL trade deadline.
  • Lowetide: Comparing Oilers prospects Tyler Benson and Kailer Yamamoto
  • Lowetide: It’s time for Oilers owner Daryl Katz to stand and deliver a winning organization.
  • Lowetide: Entry deal AHL forwards give the Oilers an excellent trade pool.
  • Jonathan Willis: An Oilers blueprint for the 2019 NHL free agency period
  • Corey Pronman: 2019 NHL Draft midseason rankings
  • Jonathan Willis: An Oilers blueprint for the 2019 NHL trade deadline.
  • Lowetide: Edmonton’s 2019 entry draft plans may change with new GM but needs are clear
  • Lowetide: Complete Oilers top 20 prospects, Winter 2018

OILERS AFTER 59

  • Oilers in 2015: 22-31-6, 50 points; goal differential -30
  • Oilers in 2016: 32-19-8, 72 points; goal differential +14
  • Oilers in 2017: 24-31-4, 52 points; goal differential -34
  • Oilers in 2018: 24-29-6, 54 points; goal differential -25

The Oilers are clear of the 2015 and 2017 teams but belong to the same family. There’s lots to like at the top of the roster, but the club comes by that -25 goal differential (excluding EN goals) honestly.

OILERS IN FEBRUARY

  • Oilers in February 2016: 2-7-0, four points; goal differential -18
  • Oilers in February 2017: 5-4-0, 10 points; goal differential 0
  • Oilers in February 2018: 2-6-1, five points; goal differential -4
  • Oilers in February 2019: 1-5-3, five points; goal differential -12

WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY

  • On the road to: Philadelphia, Montreal (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-2)
  • At home to: Chicago (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
  • On the road to: Minnesota (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • At home to: San Jose (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
  • On the road to: Pittsburgh, Carolina, NY Islanders (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-3-0)
  • At home to: Arizona, NY Islanders, Anaheim (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-1)
  • On the road to: Nashville, Toronto, Ottawa (Expected 1-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 7-6-1, 15 points in 14 games
  • Current results: 1-5-3, five points in nine games

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

  • Klefbom-Larsson were rock solid, going 27-12 in 14:52, 15-5 shots, 1-0 goals and 7-2 HDSC. Went 10-10 in 5:54 against Keller-Cousins-Garland.
  • Nurse-Russell went 10-14 in 14:01, 7-8 shots, 0-1 goals and 2-7 HDSC. Too much defending! Russell’s clearing attempt on the first GA gave his teammates zero chance to make a play. Were 3-9 in 4:55 against Kempe-Richardson-Hinostroza.
  • Sekera-Benning were 8-13 in 11:16, 2-10 shots, 0-1 goals and 3-5 HDSC. Sekera was solid positionally save for the second GA, as both he an Benning bit hard on a deke, and then Andrej fell in the corner and was out of the play.
  • Mikko Koskinen stopped 33 of 35, .943. NTS had him stopping 12 of 14 HDSC.
  • NaturalStatTrick and NHL.com.

FORWARDS, LAST NIGHT

  • Lucic-Draisaitl-Kassian were 10-15 in 8:52, 7-10 shots, 0-1 goals and 3-5 HDSC. Lucic had a solid chance very early in the game and the line did create some opportunities.
  • Chiasson-Cave-Rattie 8-4 in 7:16, 5-1 shots, no goals and 3-0 HDSC. They were so good I’d run them again. Cave might be winning a job for next year and that was a rock solid effort by Rattie. He was all over the ice, and made good plays in all three zones.
  • Rieder-Nuge-Gagner went 3-10 in 6:28, 1-5 shots, no goals and 1-4 HDSC. It was not good.
  • Nuge-Draisaitl-Kassian were 5-5 in 4:09, 3-5 shots, 1-1 goals and 1-3 high dangers. I think this was the best line, although Cave’s trio did pretty well.
  • Malone-Brodziak-Currie went 3-3 in 4:01, 0-2 shots no goals and no HDSC.

Lots of smoke around Hall to Edmonton, Kurt Leavins mentioned it in a recent Cult of Hockey article. I wonder if the Oilers would dare to deal for him this summer?

OILERS MOCK DRAFT

  • No. 5 overall—RC Kirby Dach, Saskatoon Blades (WHL). He is a big playmaking center pushing through (52, 22-38-60) this season. Suspect he’ll need at least one more season in junior.
  • No. 36 overall—LD Thomas Harley, Mississauga Steelheads (OHL). Smooth skating two-way defender who has as fairly complete skill set.
  • No. 89 overall (acquired from NY Islanders for Brandon Davidson)—R Samuel Fagemo, Frolunda (SHL). I liked him plenty last year, should be a real bargain this season. Scoring winger.
  • No. 99 overall—RC Travis Treloar, Chicago Steel (USHL). Swedish center who is playing well in the USHL, he’s a creative player who will play on a skill line if he makes it.
  • No. 162 overall—R Eric Uba, Flint Firebirds (OHL). Numbers are good, he’s aggressive and (so far) underrated.
  • No. 193 overall—G Nolan Maier, Saskatoon Blades (WHL). Another below the radar prospect having a fine year.

I used Scott Wheeler’s mid-season list against my own for the ‘available’ names at each draft slot (for the early picks).

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fun show on the way, including your comments and suggestions. It all starts at 10, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey. We’ll look at last night and at the deadline.
  • Jon Campbell, OddsShark. The St. Louis Blues made someone rich this winter. Were there any clues?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

254 Responses to "Here Come the People in Grey"

« Older Comments
  1. OmJo says:

    pts2pndr: With just average salaries for your D you would be looking at filling up your lineup with aprx 1.75 million dollar contracts. Last I looked that doesn’t buy much in the way of an NHL player.

    I know many think Hall will sign for $9M+ but I don’t think so. I think he wants to win a cup, he’s made plenty of money already. I think he’s on record on saying his next contract is about winning a cup instead of cashing in a paycheck.

    I could see him signing for Drasiaitl money.

    2021-22

    McDavid = $12.5M
    Drasiaitl = $8.5M
    Hall = $8.5M
    Nuge = $7.5M

    = $37M

    Nurse = $6M
    Larsson = $6M
    Klefbom = $4.167M

    = $16.2M

    Koskinen = $4.5M

    = $4.5M

    In total, $57.7M cap hit with 8/23 players signed. By then I think the salary cap will be signficicantly higher than it is today. Pulling this number out of my ass = $90M. So you have ~$30M to sign 15 depth players. There’ll be a few ELCs in there.

    Note I just pulled these numbers out of nowhere. I’m bored.

  2. Jethro Tull says:

    OmJo: Hm…

    Draisaitl-McDavid-Yakupov
    Hall-Nuge-Eberle
    Cogliano-Gagner-Anders Nilsson
    Reider-Brodziak-Paajarvi

    Klefbom-Petry
    Marincin-Schultz
    Davidson-Oesterle

    Dubnyk
    Brossoti

    Liking the ‘Ders playin’ wing!

  3. PokeCheck says:

    Jethro Tull: Liking the ‘Ders playin’ wing!

    For some random reason, this post reminded me that Jonas Gustavsson was, at some point, considered part of the answer for the Oilers. It feels like that was a century ago, but Wikipedia’s telling me that it was the last year the Oilers made the playoffs and that he scored more goals for this organization in Bakersfield than they got from Lucic in 2018 or Rieder in 2018-19. Never forget!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iPmkRB24cng

  4. Wilde says:

    Ben:
    Wilde,

    At this point, I hope to have hypnotised the reader to exhaustion, and that their brains are now fertile to any conclusion I’m willing to put forth due to the sheer enormity of labour in writing this piece overpowering any opposition.

    This needs to be on The Athletic’s masthead.

    Love to hear your thoughts on Hebig’s drop-off this year.

    ;p

    All I know about Hebig right now is that he left the esteemed club of the top-six/1PP and stopped producing, which is just the surface-level.

    What I’m curious to find out is-

    i) Did he ‘deserve’ the demotion production wise at 5v5, 5v4 or both – when did his shooting % collapse and did the volume collapse before or after the demotion

    ii) Did he ‘deserve’ the demotion defensively

    iii) How was his zone exit/entry contribution impacted by playing in the bottom-six – he and Marody were very good at generating clean transitions at the beginning of the year

    My personal interest in the player is related to figuring out who could form a scoring third line next year. The Condors have gradually moved to a harder top-six/bottom-six divide, and it’s a movement undeniably based on merit and I support it – so long as Yamamoto isn’t outside the two skill lines.

    But in the interest of making the team better and having more offensive skill-nurturing slots for incoming prospects, it’s worth exploring whether or not Hebig’s part of that solution.

    They could possibly lose many citizens of the top half of the lineup next year, which is the part (along with goaltending) that made them capable of this streak and this season, so you have to find out who’s part of the solution should that situation, or anything close, come to pass.

  5. Wilde says:

    [shamelessly deleting and relocating this post to the new page]

    Here’s a fat dose of sunshine if you’re feelin down – Caleb Jones is my Bakersfield Condors MVP:
    http://petropraxis.blogspot.com/2019/02/caleb-jones-is-bakersfield-condors-mvp.html

  6. Darth Tu says:

    Wilde:
    [shamelessly deleting and relocating this post to the new page]

    Here’s a fat dose of sunshine if you’re feelin down: Caleb Jones is my Bakersfield Condors MVP:
    http://petropraxis.blogspot.com/2019/02/caleb-jones-is-bakersfield-condors-mvp.html

    Just read through, stunning work. Well done! I’m rooting hard for Jones to make it back to the NHL at some point next season, and grab a job there full time.

  7. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: I’ve long pined for a Nurse-Dumba pairing. Not sure what the right price is and would hate to see Nuge go, but it’s intriguing for sure.

    I went to see what the Wild center depth looks like going forward and, my goodness, they have a soon to be 35 year old Parise on hook for 6 more years? Geezuz – he could retire but there would be massive cap re-capture penalties ($4M yearly if he retired in 2020 and $5M if he retires later).

    I don’t really know their prospects but their NHL center depth is not looking good – Granlund one more year to UFA, Staal UFA after this season. Erickson Ek a big question mark.

    There could be something to this though.

    I never really thought Dumba was all that great – until last year’s playoffs – I saw a few games where he was dominant.

  8. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV1965: +1000. Signing guys on the first day of free agency is death. I’m sure there’s one or two homeruns, but geez it’s a bad idea. Maybe it changes in the future if guys become reluctant to automatically resign with their current teams.

    The Sekera signing was working out just fine for the Oilers – value for this $5.5M – then Getzlaf….

    With that said, I do agree with the premise generally and to proceed with extreme caution. Smart management has started to pay for player’s 20s, not their 30s – Chiarelli actually did something right with the 8 year contracts for McDavid and Drai – its too bad that its going to be tough to surround them with the right complimentary pieces for another couple years due to other incompetence.

  9. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV1965: There should be a bunch of guys hitting the waiver wire. Pick up some guys that way. Maybe include some plugs in any deal.

    As long as they don’t come with term.

    Smith-Pelly is intriguing for exactly this reason – Cheap and UFA after this year.

  10. OriginalPouzar says:

    Alpine:
    I like the Russell for Cogliano idea. Another good spot for Russell might be Montreal who are playing guys like Reilly and Kulak in their top four. Maybe they’d like another veteran back there. I don’t know who or what you’d get back from them.

    Is there any place in the league that is less “Western Canada” that Quebec – including all the US destinations?

    Not sure he waives for MTL.

  11. OriginalPouzar says:

    Dr. Taboggan:
    Primetime,

    There are only two ways for the Oilers to improve: 1) draft and develop cheap talent and 2) fleece other teams in trades. RNH for Dumba is too close in terms of talent in and talent out to actually improve the team. It changes the team but does not increase the overall talent level.

    They have been doing number 1 for a while (generally – there have been mistakes in development such as Puljijarvi) and should start to reap the rewards next season.

    I can’t believe this organization is finally going to have NHL ready players, talented real prospects, chomping at the bit in the AHL – depth.

  12. RonnieB says:

    Anaheim and Silverberg agree to a 5 year deaal with AAV in excesss o $5 million.
    Silverberg age 28 15 goals 8 assists in 50 games
    Chiasson age 28 17 goals 10 assists in 49 games

    Thank God PC is no longer negotiating player contracts for the Oilers.

  13. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: is 2nd quartile good if one has a generational player AND a top 50ish player in the world on it?

    Its two spots behind PIT (Crosby, Malkin)

    Its better than TO (Matthews, Tavares)

    Its much better than CBJ (Panarin, Atkinson – plus Jones, Werenski)

  14. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wilde: ;p

    My personal interest in the player is related to figuring out who could form a scoring third line next year. The Condors have gradually moved to a harder top-six/bottom-six divide, and it’s a movement undeniably based on merit and I support it – so long as Yamamoto isn’t outside the two skill lines.

    Although I am hopeful Currie is back in the AHL for the game on Saturday (on the assumption that Hitch will deploy him on Thus similar to last game – and why would we expect any different?), assuming Currie is still in the NHL, I would think you’d get your wish and Kailer will be moved to play with Benson and Marody.

    He has been awesome the last 4 games or so with the likes of Vesel and Esposito but it will be nice to get him up the lineup – only issue is that he and Marody are both puck transporters at the AHL level.

  15. OriginalPouzar says:

    RonnieB:
    Anaheim and Silverberg agree to a 5 year deaal with AAV in excesss o $5 million.
    Silverbergage 2815 goals 8 assists in 50 games
    Chiasson age 2817 goals10 assists in 49 games

    Thank God PC is no longer negotiating player contracts for the Oilers.

    Except PC clearly didn’t look at market comparables when negotiating contracts……

  16. Glovjuice says:

    Bill:
    If the cost to acquire Hall(signed to a new contract) from NJD was Leon and Nurse, how many of y’all would bite?

    0

  17. Andy Dufresne says:

    giddy: That is exactly the type of player Oilers need. Good middle six player on a reasonable $3.2m deal that is having a down year.

    We have a team full of guys who are having a down year. At least one of which who is making $3.2m 🙂

  18. giddy says:

    $5×5 for a typically 40 point guy on a down year who is 28… Anaheim what is you doing??

  19. Scungilli Slushy says:

    ArmchairGM: I’ve long pined for a Nurse-Dumba pairing. Not sure what the right price is and would hate to see Nuge go, but it’s intriguing for sure.

    Nuge is currently the only first line 2 way forward we have.

    Unless the return was Dahlin or a player of that potential it would be a very risky move.

    Dumba is not nearly as valuable IMO. Young high end responsible easy to deal with Cs are rare and extremely valuable.

  20. giddy says:

    Andy Dufresne: We have a team full of guys who are having a down year. At least one of which who is making $3.2m

    I liked the Gagner trade!

  21. Scungilli Slushy says:

    JimmyV1965:
    Currie plays 5 minutes last night. What the hell is the point? He’s fourth in the AHL in goals with 24 already. What are they worried about? That they’ll lose the dynamic offense of Tobias Reider and Milan Lucic. I would understand 5 minutes if the team was playing well or if they didn’t have a bunch of garbage wingers, but Currie could very well be better than any winger on the team, which ain’t saying much.

    The Oilers and people they currently like such as Hitch are operating on ideas that don’t work these days.

    Yes teams need to work hard and be responsible, professional, but there is more than one way to skin a cat, and they don’t do the new ways. And they get their asses handed to them because of it.

  22. OmJo says:

    giddy:
    $5×5 for a typically 40 point guy on a down year who is 28… Anaheim what is you doing??

    Inflating the price of good players even more.

  23. pts2pndr says:

    OmJo: I know many think Hall will sign for $9M+ but I don’t think so. I think he wants to win a cup, he’s made plenty of money already. I think he’s on record on saying his next contract is about winning a cup instead of cashing in a paycheck.

    I could see him signing for Drasiaitl money.

    2021-22

    McDavid = $12.5M
    Drasiaitl = $8.5M
    Hall = $8.5M
    Nuge = $7.5M

    = $37M

    Nurse = $6M
    Larsson = $6M
    Klefbom = $4.167M

    = $16.2M

    Koskinen = $4.5M

    = $4.5M

    In total, $57.7M cap hit with 8/23 players signed. By then I think the salary cap will be signficicantly higher than it is today. Pulling this number out of my ass = $90M. So you have ~$30M to sign 15 depth players. There’ll be a few ELCs in there.

    Note I just pulled these numbers out of nowhere. I’m bored.

    What you are missing is that if you are retaining 3 million on Lucic to make this possible it effectively makes the cost for Taylor 9 million and if he extends then his hit is what he extends for plus 3 million for what is currently the term on Lucic. The problem with bringing any big contract in is the overpay on Lucic and the fact our D has two contracts, Russel and Sekera that are collectvely 9.5 milion for what the majority of our community believe are third pairing D. All three contracts are extremely difficult to impossible to move without value out! We can not as a franchise sacrafice value out in our current position. It is a catch 22 scenario! Our best option appears to be draft and develope!

  24. OmJo says:

    pts2pndr: What you are missing is that if you are retaining 3 millionon Lucic to make this possible it effectively makes the cost for Taylor 9 million and ifhe extends then his hit is what he extends for plus 3 million for what is currently the term on Lucic. The problem with bringing any big contract in is the overpay on Lucic and the fact our D has two contracts, Russel and Sekera thatare collectvely 9.5 milion for what the majority of our community believe are third pairing D. All three contracts are extremely difficult to impossible to move without value out!We can not as a franchise sacrafice value out in our current position. It is a catch 22 scenario! Our best option appears to be draft and develope!

    Should have maybe quoted my first post suggesting the trade for Hall to begin with. Lucic was involved in that trade with no salary retention (but a lot of futures instead).

  25. Scungilli Slushy says:

    I keep reading that the SNGM needs to be good at assessing amateur talent.

    Except the GM doesn’t do that. Sure they’ve got the final call on it, scouts and the director of scouting do the legwork.

    The SNGM needs to be good at assessing pro talent and making deals and signing fair contracts. Amateur drafting now is not unknown, there are so many resources and Lowetide they almost don’t need amateur scout’s input until the 3rd round.

    Pro evaluation and deal making is what is killing winning.

    * I’ll add that the SNGM needs to assess based on what the POHO gives on the direction of the org, which better be skill, drive and skating. I like hockey and don’t want to cut the Oilers out if they remain unsavoury.

  26. Ryan says:

    Wilde:
    [shamelessly deleting and relocating this post to the new page]

    Here’s a fat dose of sunshine if you’re feelin down – Caleb Jones is my Bakersfield Condors MVP:
    http://petropraxis.blogspot.com/2019/02/caleb-jones-is-bakersfield-condors-mvp.html

    Will read the article soon.

    Jones is the goods.

    Could he have a higher ceiling than Nurse?

  27. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wilde:
    [shamelessly deleting and relocating this post to the new page]

    Here’s a fat dose of sunshine if you’re feelin down – Caleb Jones is my Bakersfield Condors MVP:
    http://petropraxis.blogspot.com/2019/02/caleb-jones-is-bakersfield-condors-mvp.html

    Still working through this, not surprisingly, fabulous piece of work and just wanted to note that, as shining as it is now as it relates to possession numbers with and without Jones it could shine even brighter if it included time on the ice with both Marody and Currie because the Benson/Marody/Currie line has been an absolute possession dynamo – they spend shift after shift after shift in the offensive zone.

    They have spend so little time in their own zone over the last month that I do have some concern about not developing their defensive zone coverage and cycle defending games.

  28. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ryan: Will read the article soon.

    Jones is the goods.

    Could he have a higher ceiling than Nurse?

    Its an interesting thought but my initial thought is no – they both went back to junior for two full years post draft but then, Nurse got a 9 game cup of coffee in the AHL prior to being called up to the NHL (and even ended up playing top pairing with Sekera for the part of that year) whereas Jones is essentially being give two full seasons in the AHL.

    Of course, that is partially an indictment of the development strategy of the team over the years but its tough to argue against Nurse being NHL ready or very close thereto when he did get the call. He did start off his NHL career strong on the third pairing – struggled the rest of the year when moved up the depth chart.

    By the end of draft plus 4, Jones will have had a cup of coffee in the NHL whereas Nurse will have had two full seasons (subject to injury).

  29. Klima's_Bucket says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    A difference could be that Jones will have years of learning experience.
    Whereas, Nurse may keep relearning through his experiences.

  30. flyfish1168 says:

    Rasmus Andersson gets a borderline late hit. Phlegms with mob mentality. I give them credit. I like us to stick up for one another better.

  31. OriginalPouzar says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    OriginalPouzar,

    A difference could be that Jones will have years of learning experience.
    Whereas, Nurse may keep relearning through his experiences.

    True and, fair enough – I would just posit that Nurse was much farther ahead than Jones in their draft plus 3 and 4 years and that, if Nurse was in the AHL in those years the results would have been off the charts.

  32. Klima's_Bucket says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    I’m rooting for both to one day put it all together.

  33. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Nice work Wilde.

    I don’t quite agree on the discussion of how to use analytics vs eye test, but a very thorough look at Jones.

    Does Jones have more upside than Nurse? Absolutely. He already does the harder part of hockey far better and did so in the NHL until being swamped.

    If he had Nurse’s size he’d be in a different convo. He should be 7D next season. Also that he can play both sides.

    Gravel should be in the A until the injuries come. Jones is good enough that his upside means he should not be behind an overage tweener.

    This is part of not looking like a clown org and punishing high end prospects for making mistakes (or any prospect) and so employing less skilled players with no upside who make as many or more mistakes.

    This is the TMac and Hitch model as they have shown us. Earn it rookies, but these replacement level players don’t have to because they play heavy, even when it can’t win and they fail.

    As if JP and Jones can’t watch a game and tell what isn’t working, and if the guy playing their spot is better than them.

    Jones has already eaten Russell’s lunch, after stealing his money. Nurse and Sekera next.

  34. JimmyV1965 says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    Nice work Wilde.

    I don’t quite agree on the discussion of how to use analytics vs eye test, but a very thorough look at Jones.

    Does Jones have more upside than Nurse? Absolutely. He already does the harder part of hockey far better and did so in the NHL until being swamped.

    If he had Nurse’s size he’d be in a different convo. He should be 7D next season. Also that he can play both sides.

    Gravel should be in the A until the injuries come. Jones is good enough that his upside means he should not be behind an overage tweener.

    This is part of not looking like a clown org and punishing high end prospects for making mistakes (or any prospect) and so employing less skilled players with no upside who make as many or more mistakes.

    This is the TMac and Hitch model as they have shown us. Earn it rookies, but these replacement level players don’t have to because they play heavy, even when it can’t win and they fail.

    As if JP and Jones can’t watch a game and tell what isn’t working, and if the guy playing their spot is better than them.

    Jones has already eaten Russell’s lunch, after stealing his money. Nurse and Sekera next.

    I actually like the way they have developed Jones. I think it’s fine to have an inferior dman playing with the parent club if more AHL time is in the best interest of the better prospect.

  35. colieo_87 says:

    I liked the hall talk but its a fantasy this team is a tire fire

  36. YKOil says:

    I like Jones. Would consider trading him as part of a package for Montour (ANA) however – would take a good look at his pairing however (are his numbers boosted and if so, how much?).

    Would also consider trading Bear for a signed Jensen (DET) – pending issues include cost on a 4 year deal and whether or not his numbers are getting boosted by his pairing.

    I like both prospects but that 2RHD spot needs to be filled.

  37. Oilman99 says:

    OriginalPouzar: They have been doing number 1 for a while (generally – there have been mistakes in development such as Puljijarvi) and should start to reap the rewards next season.

    I can’t believe this organization is finally going to have NHL ready players, talented real prospects, chomping at the bit in the AHL – depth.

    Warning!!!! Everybody thought Yamamoto,and Puljujarvi were going to arrive this year, and we all know how that turned out. Any free cap space needs to be used to ensure there is a viable top six forward group next fall. It is imparative to be able to score more than one goal per game next year.

  38. OriginalPouzar says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    Nice work Wilde.

    I don’t quite agree on the discussion of how to use analytics vs eye test, but a very thorough look at Jones.

    Does Jones have more upside than Nurse? Absolutely. He already does the harder part of hockey far better and did so in the NHL until being swamped.

    If he had Nurse’s size he’d be in a different convo. He should be 7D next season. Also that he can play both sides.

    Gravel should be in the A until the injuries come. Jones is good enough that his upside means he should not be behind an overage tweener.

    This is part of not looking like a clown org and punishing high end prospects for making mistakes (or any prospect) and so employing less skilled players with no upside who make as many or more mistakes.

    This is the TMac and Hitch model as they have shown us. Earn it rookies, but these replacement level players don’t have to because they play heavy, even when it can’t win and they fail.

    As if JP and Jones can’t watch a game and tell what isn’t working, and if the guy playing their spot is better than them.

    Jones has already eaten Russell’s lunch, after stealing his money. Nurse and Sekera next.

    Klefbom/Larsson
    Nurse/Myers (Rutta, Stalman, McQuaid)
    Sekera/Jones

    Benning

    Bear, Bouchad, Persson, Lagesson, Manning

    Russell will need to waive and we may need to retain $500K

    May need to retain $1M on Manning to divest (no more or we would just bury it).

    Really think that Lagesson should challenge for a 3rd pairing spot out of camp but handedness will make him an injury call-up.

  39. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilman99: Warning!!!! Everybody thought Yamamoto,and Puljujarvi were going to arrive this year, and we all know how that turned out. Any free cap space needs to be used to ensure there is a viable top six forward group next fall. It is imparative to be able to score more than one goal per game next year.

    Not everyone thought that on Yamamoto – in fact, some of us posited that realistic expecations for Yamamoto included the full year in the AHL this year give he was a 22nd overall draft pick coming in to his rookie pro season and most 22nd overall draft picks need AHL seasoning.

  40. Wilde says:

    OriginalPouzar: Although I am hopeful Currie is back in the AHL for the game on Saturday (on the assumption that Hitch will deploy him on Thus similar to last game – and why would we expect any different?), assuming Currie is still in the NHL, I would think you’d get your wish and Kailer will be moved to play with Benson and Marody.

    He has been awesome the last 4 games or so with the likes of Vesel and Esposito but it will be nice to get him up the lineup – only issue is that he and Marody are both puck transporters at the AHL level.

    I’m in favour of running two transporters per skill line. I think it helps both guys and creates a kind of dangerous fluidity when it’s not run through one guy.

    Especially when one of them is Yamamoto, he’s a good zone exit/entry partner because he knows how to slip his check right around either blueline.

    YKOil:
    Would also consider trading Bear for a signed Jensen (DET) – pending issues include cost on a 4 year deal and whether or not his numbers are getting boosted by his pairing.

    I like Nick Jensen too, and Tim Heed

    Ryan:
    Could he have a higher ceiling than Nurse?

    Yes, imo.

    But I’m also of the belief that Nurse is within arms reach of his ceiling right now, if he’s not already there. Most of the ‘improvement’ that’s going to occur visually is going to be when he gets to play with better forwards more often. I don’t think he’s ever going to know who’s behind him like Jones already does.

    OriginalPouzar: Still working through this, not surprisingly, fabulous piece of work and just wanted to note that, as shining as it is now as it relates to possession numbers with and without Jones it could shine even brighter if it included time on the ice with both Marody and Currie because the Benson/Marody/Currie line has been an absolute possession dynamo – they spend shift after shift after shift in the offensive zone.
    They have spend so little time in their own zone over the last month that I do have some concern about not developing their defensive zone coverage and cycle defending games.

    Yeah, I think them lighting on fire to join the already burning veteran line (with Gambardella and Russell) is a big reason why the Condors have the third lowest 5v5 GA while still piling up the GF, basically either the kid line is on the ice and in the offensive zone, or the veteran line is on the ice and in the offensive zone. 2nd highest 5v5 GF% in the league but only the 11th highest PDO.

    Syracuse has the highest GF% and the highest PDO, but I think their 11.27 5v5 oiSH% is a lot less lucky than other hot shooting teams because Brisebois/Cooper/Olivier-Groulx and their analytics department constitute demonstrable hockey genius when it comes to offense.

  41. Wilde says:

    also thanks all

  42. frjohnk says:

    Wilde,

    great stuff

  43. Admiral Ackbar says:

    Wilde,

    ^this, all night long…

  44. ArmchairGM says:

    Wilde: I’m in favour of running two transporters per skill line. I think it helps both guys and creates a kind of dangerous fluidity when it’s not run through one guy.

    I have long wondered at the line of thinking that you should have only one puck transporter per line. It simply doesn’t make sense – having one transporter means the line is easier to disrupt because the other team can focus on 1 guy in the neutral zone.

    This especially irks me when used as an excuse to keep JP off the McDavid line. Draisaitl is a transporter and seems to do okay there.

  45. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Wilde,

    – I could be convinced based on what you wrote that Jones could be a 3 LHD next year, and that’s not forcing him, based on development. It’s a great piece with easy to follow video to make your points. You say he also plays a lot on RHD. Could we do next year:

    Klef-Larsson
    Nurse-Russell/Benning
    Sek-Jones

    – And Bouchard, he gets the Jones treatment: i.e. some time in NHL, and long season in the AHL

    – So in 2 years we be like:

    Klef-Larsson
    Nurse-Jones
    Sek-Bouchard

    – One more year of Russell (untill he gets past), and 2 more years of Sek, and Bear/Persson/Laggs gets some reps with injuries, call-ups, etc.

    – Sek be like vet who bigs up the rooks for next two years

    – And in 3 years we be like:

    Klef-Larsson
    Nurse-Bouchard
    Jones-Bear/Persson/Lagesson

    – With Jones being the next version of Sek, based on his smarts, etc, and bigging up the rooks

  46. Ari says:

    Wilde,

    Brilliant piece. Gives me much hope.

    Not sure, if it’s been addressed, but did he play the right side all season?

  47. russ99 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Klefbom/Larsson
    Nurse/Myers (Rutta, Stalman, McQuaid)
    Sekera/Jones

    Benning

    Bear, Bouchad, Persson, Lagesson, Manning

    Russell will need to waive and we may need to retain $500K

    May need to retain $1M on Manning to divest (no more or we would just bury it).

    Really think that Lagesson should challenge for a 3rd pairing spot out of camp but handedness will make him an injury call-up.

    Russell at $4M and NMC degrading will be very movable, but more next deadline than this summer, as his (and Sekera’s) NMC degrades right when the FA market is flooded with defensemen. Doubt he gets moved this year due to NMC/Western Canada preference.

    Also, at least one of the AHL kids are already better than Benning, and when a new GM comes in, out go the favorites of the old GM. Would like to see the Oilers proactive on moving his cap number for a pick/prospect this deadline. He’s the last of the Chia ’94s/RFA overpays.

  48. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    russ99: Russell at $4M and NMC degrading will be very movable, but more next deadline than this summer,

    Also, at least one of the AHL kids are already better than Benning,

    – I see what your saying, and for Russell I agree that there is a better window next trade deadline

    – This also allows the Bouchard/Jones/Persson’s etc to not be forced up the line-up

    – Same for Benning: he’s not that expensive, he’s a RHD, has some toughness, and he’s a good block for the same reasons

    – The new GM will probably force some trades, but Russell and Benning are bona-fide NHL: nothing wrong with keeping them untill the cavalry is really ready IMO.

  49. Wilde says:

    Ari:
    Wilde,

    Brilliant piece. Gives me much hope.

    Not sure, if it’s been addressed, but did he play the right side all season?

    An overwhelming amount of it, yeah, besides a few situations like if he’s on a makeshift pairing with Logan Day after a long stretch of the team being on the PK. Or, sometimes Woodcroft will invert winger-sets and/or D-pairings in certain faceoffs scenarios and they’ll play out the shift that way.

    But remember, Ken Hitchcok in his avail after Jones’ NHL call-up was prompted about which side he’d play and with whom – he answered that it’d be right side with Kevin Gravel, but also that Jones playing right side was “an organisational decision”.

  50. Wilde says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    We could follow that, but I’d be sorely tempted to do major surgery on this blueline over the deadline and summer with all of Sekera, Nurse, Russell, Benning and perhaps Bear in play.

    Not as in I’d trade all of them, probably two maximum, but I think D is an area where you can actually make a quality-out quality-in play as opposed to the situation at forward where you’re just completely starving asset-wise.

    The outline you made there is probably the most reasonable and safely projectable but there’s a lot of stuff in the air in regards to the cap situation in the near term and the re-signing of Larsson, Nurse and Nuge in medium term.

  51. OriginalPouzar says:

    russ99: Russell at $4M and NMC degrading will be very movable, but more next deadline than this summer, as his (and Sekera’s) NMC degrades right when the FA market is flooded with defensemen. Doubt he gets moved this year due to NMC/Western Canada preference.

    Also, at least one of the AHL kids are already better than Benning, and when a new GM comes in, out go the favorites of the old GM.Would like to see the Oilers proactive on moving his cap number for a pick/prospect this deadline. He’s the last of the Chia ’94s/RFA overpays.

    On the assumption that Sekera is at least a serviceable 2nd pairing d-man (that we may have the luxury of playing on the 3rd paring, expensive but a luxury), I think one of Sekera or Russell needs to be disposed of this off-season (unless they make a bigger move of Nurse to get the 2RD in the trade itslef – Nurse plus for Parayko or Risto or Dumba or something along those lines).

    I know we need forwards but that cap space would be used for a true 2RD, some how, some way – in particular if Russell is divested of because, well, who else is going to play there?

    I think its risky to trade Benning on the premise that Bear, Persson, Bouchard are already better. I think they need to prove it first and then we trade from a position of strength.

    The reason for the Russell trade is left shot D at the NHL level is an actual position of strength plus our most NHL ready D prospects are in that position knocking (Jones and likely Lagesson).

  52. Biggus Dickus says:

    Maybe Hall is a sadist, but why would you go to a team that wasted your youth, assaulted your character, and will not be competitive before you turn 30, even if they fire the guys responsible for 15ish years of suck All the while living in a cold, podunk little town. Not to mention a place where your taxes are relatively high. If I played in the NHL, this is the last place I would choose.

  53. deardylan says:

    One, two, three and to the fo’
    Snoop Ganggy Gagner and Dr. Drai is at the do’

    3rd in league in goals behind Ovi and Kane.

    But uh, back to the lecture at hand
    Perfection is perfected, so I’ma let ’em understand
    From a young G’s perspective

    Will Dr. Drai become a value contract for goals over his Oilers career?

    Ready to make an entrance, so back on up
    Two loc’ed out Nhlers so we’re crazy!
    Katz Row is the label that pays me!

    Dr Drai ain’t nothing but a G thang baby

« Older Comments

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca