Whispering Pines

by Lowetide

I can only imagine the journey of Josh Currie, a man who crawled through a lifetime of minor league games and came out in the NHL on the other side. Lonely nights, self doubts inside a lonely room, struggles for years and then redemption. How many people told him to quit? How many people stood by him? Josh Currie scored a goal last night in the NHL, that moment will last a lifetime.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group. Outstanding offer is here.

  • New Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers and the OHL.
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Mike Sillinger, the NHL’s most-traded player, on strong-arm tactics and a stare down with Iron Mike.
  • Lowetide: Are the 2018-19 Bakersfield Condors the best Edmonton Oilers affiliate ever?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘One of the best hockey games ever’: An oral history of the 2014 women’s Olympic gold-medal game.
  • Lowetide: How can the Oilers successfully sell the new regime to a fan base that is openly angry?
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers trade deadline primer: Focus should be on moves that make life easier for the next GM
  • Lowetide: Cam Talbot’s Oilers career a disappointment save one beautiful spring.
  • Jonathan Willis: Edmonton’s trade for Sam Gagner is a gamble well worth making.
  • Jonathan Willis: Inside the success of the Bakersfield Condors, and what it means for Edmonton
  • Lowetide: The Oilers sure have a lot of problems, but there is a simple solution.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Keith Gretzky on the Oilers trade deadline plan, Andrej Sekera’s return and Jesse Puljujarvi’s season
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ potential roster upheaval might set a record for summer activity
  • Jonathan Willis: Teams should beware of these players at the 2019 NHL trade deadline.
  • Lowetide: It’s time for Oilers owner Daryl Katz to stand and deliver a winning organization.
  • Lowetide: Entry deal AHL forwards give the Oilers an excellent trade pool.
  • Jonathan Willis: An Oilers blueprint for the 2019 NHL free agency period
  • Corey Pronman: 2019 NHL Draft midseason rankings
  • Jonathan Willis: An Oilers blueprint for the 2019 NHL trade deadline.
  • Lowetide: Edmonton’s 2019 entry draft plans may change with new GM but needs are clear
  • Lowetide: Complete Oilers top 20 prospects, Winter 2018

OILERS AFTER 61

  • Oilers in 2015: 22-33-6, 50 points; goal differential -33
  • Oilers in 2016: 33-20-8, 74 points; goal differential +13
  • Oilers in 2017: 26-31-4, 56 points; goal differential -33
  • Oilers in 2018: 26-29-6, 58 points; goal differential -23

The Oilers are seven points back with a game in hand and a half dozen teams to jump over, but remain on the outskirts of the playoffs. I think the organization has handled this deadline well so far, tweaking and selling off but not overplaying the hand given.

OILERS IN FEBRUARY

  • Oilers in February 2016: 2-9-0, four points; goal differential -21
  • Oilers in February 2017: 5-6-0, 10 points; goal differential -2
  • Oilers in February 2018: 3-7-1, seven points; goal differential -4
  • Oilers in February 2019: 3-5-3, nine points; goal differential -10

WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY

  • On the road to: Philadelphia, Montreal (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-2)
  • At home to: Chicago (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
  • On the road to: Minnesota (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • At home to: San Jose (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
  • On the road to: Pittsburgh, Carolina, NY Islanders (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-3-0)
  • At home to: Arizona, NY Islanders, Anaheim (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 1-0-1)
  • On the road to: Nashville, Toronto, Ottawa (Expected 1-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 7-6-1, 15 points in 14 games
  • Current results: 3-5-3, nine points in 11 games

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

  • Sekera-Benning were 10-13 in 10:51, 6-9 shots, 1-1 goals and 4-4 HDSC. The goal against came on their watch, but it was a tough play for Benning and Sekera was in a tough spot. Shiza happens. Were 6-4 in 4:31 against Ritchie-Kesler-Rowney.
  • Klefbom-Larsson were 10-20 in 20:34, 5-9 shots, no goals and 4-2 HDSC. Klefbom was strong defensively, I thought he was better without the puck than Larsson (that’s a switch). Larsson had some issues but recovered well. Went 6-13 in 10:52 against Rakell-various centers-Perry.
  • Nurse-Russell went 6-15 in 13:48, 1-8 shots, no goals and 0-1 HDSC. One of the things the new management and staff will want to do is look at this pairing and how little time it spends in the offensive zone. Went 3-6 in 6:34 against Shore-Grant-Silfverberg.
  • Mikko Koskinen stopped 33 of 34, .971.
  • NaturalStatTrick and NHL.com.

FORWARDS, LAST NIGHT

  • Rieder-Draisaitl-Chiasson were 12-16 in 14:33, 7-4 shots, no goals and 3-1 HDSC. Rieder appeared to be at more plays, took a straight line approach and found himself doing useful things. I thought Leon had a big game, badly needed and he delivered. Chiasson showed a veteran’s savvy, can’t wait for that scoring touch to return.
  • Gagner-Nuge-Kassian were 4-15 in 14:04, 3-10 shots, 0-1 goals and 3-3 HDSC. This little couldn’t rhyme.
  • Lucic-Cave-Currie went 12-14 in 10:04, 6-8 shots, 1-0 goals and 3-2 HDSC. I thought all three men played well, there was instant reaction from Lucic on plays, he was engaged and had some of the old anticipation that made him such a load. Cave keeps making himself useful, while Currie was the subject of the postgame and the coaching saying he had earned the trust of the coaching staff. Music!
  • Malone-Brodziak-Rattie were 2-2 in 5:00, 0-1 shots, no goals and 0-1 HDSC. That’s a Hitch fourth line, opportunity suppression during five minutes of icetime. I think the No. 4 line will be filled with PK men one year from now if Hitchcock returns.

MIKKO KOSKINEN

In his most recent three games, Koskinen is 2-0-1 and has stopped 86 of 92 (.935). One of the things we agreed the Oilers should be doing in these last 25 games is getting a long look at Koskinen. He’s .908 for the season, hockey-reference tells us NHL average is .904 this year. If he can get it to 10 points above average, the Oilers can breathe a little easier. Edmonton needs a substantial backup for next year, though.

KEITH GRETZKY

I have suggested to you in the past couple of weeks that Keith Gretzky could in fact win the general manager’s job full stop. The team is 3-5-3 in 11 games since Gretzky took over, and have lost a little ground.

If the Gagner deal continues to shine and the team goes on a winning streak, Gretzky is going to get credit for all kinds of things (Sekera’s return, etc) that could be categorized as luck of the draw.

It’s human nature. I’m going to bet Gretzky gets the job if the Oilers finish 10-7-4 (overall record would be 36-36-10, 82 points) and within spitting distance of the postseason. We wait.

ANDREJ SEKERA

Hitchcock is bringing him along slowly, but I would like to see the third pairing slide up the depth chart by stealing time from the second pair. Either that or move Sekera up to play with Nurse.

TRADE DEADLINE

Well I thought the team would trade Alex Chiasson and Alex Petrovic, now I’m not so sure.

What should they do? Tank. Get a top-five overall pick and then trade it for a scoring winger who is under control for several years.

What will they do? Hell if I know.

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CallighenMan

Mike Wazowski:
JimmyV1965,

Unless HockeyDB is wrong, Shawn Horcoff was drafted in the 4th round, 99th overall by the Oilers.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=26126

That is correct

godot10

JimmyV1965: I stand corrected, so I guess we’re not the worst drafting and developing team in the league. By the way, Horcoff was not drafted, Chimera drafted in 97. Comrie in 99.

Horcoff was definitely drafted.
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=26126

Mike Wazowski

JimmyV1965,

Unless HockeyDB is wrong, Shawn Horcoff was drafted in the 4th round, 99th overall by the Oilers.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=26126

N64

v4ance:
Interesting rumor:

https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/from-the-branches/2019/2/25/18237013/toronto-maple-leafs-trade-deadline-speculation-looking-at-darnell-nurse-the-unnamed-executive-is-z

The unnamed executive says he’s heard from very trustworthy sources that a potential threeway deal is in the works between Toronto, Edmonton and Calgary. It would work out to something like this:


The Leafs send Ron Hainsey to Calgary for defensive prospect, Andrew Nielsen

The Leafs then packages Nielsen along with Connor Brown and a 2nd round pick to Edmonton

Edmonton sends Darnell Nurse to Toronto

EDIT:
TO me, this feels light on what EDM receives.2 B level prospects and a 2nd rounder.Connor Brown is a 30ish point winger so 3rd or 4th liner.

All in exchange for a top 4 defenceman entering his prime.

The dreaded 1 for 3.

Ryan

OriginalPouzar: What they did 10 years ago has not bearing on what they’ve been doing the last 3-4 years, what they are goign to do this year and how they proceed moving forward.

This was a fairly dramatic shift in drafting strategy when Chiarelli was hired and Gretzky thereafter.

The results of the shift can be seen by the progress of the draftees over the last 3 years the current depth potentials, real prospects.

So, I will continue to post that, organizational fails from 10 years ago, mean nothing with the current prospect system and the path forward.

I would’t exactly use the Oilers last three drafts to proclaim that the tide has turned with respect to the Oilers drafting and development. Sure, we’re not drafting Abney’s etc anymore.

2016 we have a lottery pick that would drop heavily in a re-draft and is the poster boy for development disaster. The Oilers did a terrible job developing JP. Then we have the classic 2016 – 2nd rounder that the Oilers drafted because they saw him good in their backyard despite injury concerns and other options.

For 2017, there are some good and bad arrows here and there, but too early to determine if we’ll get an NHL player from that draft.

Last year, we drafted high and got a good prospect, Bouchard and a speedy 2nd rounder.

At any rate, teams need to continually improve both of these aspects, especially the Oilers.

Admiral Ackbar

OriginalPouzar,

Based on what NHL results can you make that assertion? A good litmus test is # of players scoring 100 pts at the NHL level, hell, even 100 games played. I’ll agree that things ‘look’ better but that’s the result of marginally better drafting. There’s still the matter of poor development once drafted. 20 games from Bear and a dozen from Jones certainly isn’t evidence to suggest that things have been corrected.

Based on the drafting results outside the top 30 from 4, 7, 10, 15 years ago it sure looks like the same result year after year. I think relying on the eye-test to make sweeping organizational assertions is what got us into this mess, no?

Is this rebuild #4? Or are we still in #3?

OriginalPouzar

I’ve got to assume that Currie and Malone will be assigned to Condors before 3 eastern to ensure they are eligible to be re-assigned to the AHL after the deadline. Assuming they are then recalled, that will be two of the team’s 4 lost deadline call ups they are allowed (non-emergency).

OriginalPouzar

Admiral Ackbar: From an organizational perspective it would be disastrous to ignore the past. In fact, looking backward is the only tangible information available that can help predict future performance. From even decades back, this team has had an illness that caused it to expect the world from unlikely picks and then abandon them when these lofty expectations weren’t met.

I know you prefer to avoid negative talk about the Oil but this is an objective truth that can’t be ignored. Don’t lower the bar nor change the goal posts. They are a poor drafting and worse developing team.

What they did 10 years ago has not bearing on what they’ve been doing the last 3-4 years, what they are goign to do this year and how they proceed moving forward.

This was a fairly dramatic shift in drafting strategy when Chiarelli was hired and Gretzky thereafter.

The results of the shift can be seen by the progress of the draftees over the last 3 years the current depth potentials, real prospects.

So, I will continue to post that, organizational fails from 10 years ago, mean nothing with the current prospect system and the path forward.

OmJo

v4ance:
Interesting rumor:

https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/from-the-branches/2019/2/25/18237013/toronto-maple-leafs-trade-deadline-speculation-looking-at-darnell-nurse-the-unnamed-executive-is-z

The unnamed executive says he’s heard from very trustworthy sources that a potential threeway deal is in the works between Toronto, Edmonton and Calgary. It would work out to something like this:


The Leafs send Ron Hainsey to Calgary for defensive prospect, Andrew Nielsen

The Leafs then packages Nielsen along with Connor Brown and a 2nd round pick to Edmonton

Edmonton sends Darnell Nurse to Toronto

EDIT:
TO me, this feels light on what EDM receives.2 B level prospects and a 2nd rounder.Connor Brown is a 30ish point winger so 3rd or 4th liner.

All in exchange for a top 4 defenceman entering his prime.

No.

No, no, no, no, no!

Admiral Ackbar

OriginalPouzar
Continuing to bring up drafting from 6, 8, 10, 15 years ago isn’t productive in my opinion as it really has no bearing on current or future prospects and how they are developed.

From an organizational perspective it would be disastrous to ignore the past. In fact, looking backward is the only tangible information available that can help predict future performance. From even decades back, this team has had an illness that caused it to expect the world from unlikely picks and then abandon them when these lofty expectations weren’t met.

I know you prefer to avoid negative talk about the Oil but this is an objective truth that can’t be ignored. Don’t lower the bar nor change the goal posts. They are a poor drafting and worse developing team.

Coiler

If the return on Nurse was Kapanen and Brown then I would do it. With the caveat being that Kapanen signs long term here. That kid along McJesus’ wing would be sublime. Brown would normally be playing up the depth chart on the Leafs but they a few guys ahead of him (i.e. Marner). It was only 2 years ago that he got 20 goals. He’s young, cheap. I’d personally take Johnsson over him along with Kapanen and the Oiler’s RW issues would be solved long term for the forseeable future.

JimmyV1965

godot10: Shawn Horcoff scored 20 goals more than once.So did Mike Comrie (for the OIlers).

Jason Chimera, but not for the Oilers.

I stand corrected, so I guess we’re not the worst drafting and developing team in the league. By the way, Horcoff was not drafted, Chimera drafted in 97. Comrie in 99.

ArmchairGM

v4ance:
Interesting rumor:

https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/from-the-branches/2019/2/25/18237013/toronto-maple-leafs-trade-deadline-speculation-looking-at-darnell-nurse-the-unnamed-executive-is-z

The unnamed executive says he’s heard from very trustworthy sources that a potential threeway deal is in the works between Toronto, Edmonton and Calgary. It would work out to something like this:


The Leafs send Ron Hainsey to Calgary for defensive prospect, Andrew Nielsen

The Leafs then packages Nielsen along with Connor Brown and a 2nd round pick to Edmonton

Edmonton sends Darnell Nurse to Toronto

EDIT:
TO me, this feels light on what EDM receives.2 B level prospects and a 2nd rounder.Connor Brown is a 30ish point winger so 3rd or 4th liner.

All in exchange for a top 4 defenceman entering his prime.

Yeah, that’s a ridiculously low return for Nurse. There’s zero pressure on EDM to trade him, so why would they for anything less than an obvious overpay?

London Jon

OriginalPouzar:
Should be an interesting day.

I’ve got to assume that Chiasson will be traded – it just makes sense. Given Hagelin’s return, I think Chiasson could potentially warrant a 2nd rounder back but I do think that Gretzky is looking for a warm body back – an 21-22 AHL player that looks to be close to NHL ready – someone that we can plug in to the NHL lineup for a look or that can replace Joe G. or whoever is called up in replacement.

I think Kassian will garner interest today. Teams like functional toughness for the playoffs. His $1.95M commitment for next year may be tough for some teams. Its tough to say if I am in favor of trading Kass. If he’s a fourth liner than $1.95M is too much for our cap structure but, if he’s able to play up the lineup like he has recently then he’s value for that cap hit. Thing is, we know how inconsistent he is and that, as good as he’s playing now, he is highly likely to regress to historical norms for large stretches.

Any asset for Petrovic would be fine – likely a mid round pick or very middling prospect from PIT or something like that.

I don’t imagine Russell is going anywhere, especially without a 2RD replacement until the off-season.

Would love to get rid of Manning – I wonder if Gretz tries to move him with some retained salary $750K give or take?

I keep Benning unless a decent pick/prospect is coming back – he can compete with the likes of Jones, Bear, Persson, Laggesson for 6/7D next season.

This is exactly how today should be approached. And use the rest of the season to test some things out as well. Give Starrett, Jones, Bear etc a handful of NHL games. Expose their flaws at NHL level now when it doesn’t count. Trial new systems, breakouts, entries etc

Do all of this and finish between 3 and 5th last.

Rather than keep assets and push to the line so you pick 8th to 12th.

v4ance

Interesting rumor:

https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/from-the-branches/2019/2/25/18237013/toronto-maple-leafs-trade-deadline-speculation-looking-at-darnell-nurse-the-unnamed-executive-is-z

The unnamed executive says he’s heard from very trustworthy sources that a potential threeway deal is in the works between Toronto, Edmonton and Calgary. It would work out to something like this:

The Leafs send Ron Hainsey to Calgary for defensive prospect, Andrew Nielsen

The Leafs then packages Nielsen along with Connor Brown and a 2nd round pick to Edmonton

Edmonton sends Darnell Nurse to Toronto

EDIT:
TO me, this feels light on what EDM receives. 2 B level prospects and a 2nd rounder. Connor Brown is a 30ish point winger so 3rd or 4th liner.

All in exchange for a top 4 defenceman entering his prime.

London Jon

OmJo:
Ryan Holt
@CondorsHolty


Condors dressing room found out during second intermission last night that Currie had scored and the place erupted.

I love this

OriginalPouzar

Should be an interesting day.

I’ve got to assume that Chiasson will be traded – it just makes sense. Given Hagelin’s return, I think Chiasson could potentially warrant a 2nd rounder back but I do think that Gretzky is looking for a warm body back – an 21-22 AHL player that looks to be close to NHL ready – someone that we can plug in to the NHL lineup for a look or that can replace Joe G. or whoever is called up in replacement.

I think Kassian will garner interest today. Teams like functional toughness for the playoffs. His $1.95M commitment for next year may be tough for some teams. Its tough to say if I am in favor of trading Kass. If he’s a fourth liner than $1.95M is too much for our cap structure but, if he’s able to play up the lineup like he has recently then he’s value for that cap hit. Thing is, we know how inconsistent he is and that, as good as he’s playing now, he is highly likely to regress to historical norms for large stretches.

Any asset for Petrovic would be fine – likely a mid round pick or very middling prospect from PIT or something like that.

I don’t imagine Russell is going anywhere, especially without a 2RD replacement until the off-season.

Would love to get rid of Manning – I wonder if Gretz tries to move him with some retained salary $750K give or take?

I keep Benning unless a decent pick/prospect is coming back – he can compete with the likes of Jones, Bear, Persson, Laggesson for 6/7D next season.

ArmchairGM

tileguy:
Question for anyone/everyone,
How many point should Gagner score to justify his $3.15M, or does he just have to ge good in the room?

2 goals every 4 games would be fine with me!

😀

OriginalPouzar

Its fairly clear and obvious that the Oilers have had a history of struggle with drafting and development outside the first round (although I would posit that if one researched all the other teams in the NHL the Oilers wouldn’t be that far off a bunch of teams).

Anyways, there was a fairly clear shift if drafting strategy when Chiarelli was hired and then Keith Gretzky – a shit to focus primarily on skill with fewer off the board/obscure picks.

The amount of players outperforming their draft pedigree in their draft plus 1-3 years since then has spiked massively and, starting next year, it seems this might be start to benefit the NHL team.

Continuing to bring up drafting from 6, 8, 10, 15 years ago isn’t productive in my opinion as it really has no bearing on current or future prospects and how they are developed.

OriginalPouzar

godot10: Shawn Horcoff scored 20 goals more than once.So did Mike Comrie (for the OIlers).

Jason Chimera, but not for the Oilers.

Jarett Stoll
Kyle Brodziak (not for the Oilers).

OriginalPouzar

godot10: Miller isn’t a #2RD.He is a #3RD.Not the right defensemen for the OIlers, with Persson, Jones, Berglund, Bouchard, and Bear, and not to mention Benning and Manning competing for #3RD.Wrong place to tie up $4 million dollars per season for three more years.

Doing a bit of research it goes seem he has been more of a 3rd pairing and PP guy – I thought he was playing 2nd pairing minutes but it looks like I was wrong.

OriginalPouzar

Pescador: Please clarify for me, I didn’t get that at all.
I read trade Lucic to Ott so they can get to the cap floor.
I will read the post again

The poster was positing a situation where Lucic would waive his NMC in a transaction where Lucic is traded to OTT with the Oilers retaining apx a third of his cap hit ($2M). OTT would acquire Lucic and a $4M cap hit but would then trade Lucic on to a third team and retain a certain amount of that $4M.

The question was why he would waive to go to OTT and the answer was that he wouldn’t actually be playing in OTT.

€√¥£€^$

JimmyV1965: The Oilers haven’t developed anyone outside the first round in 20 years. If Oiler prospects don’t make it in the NHL right away, they basically don’t make it.

No difference makers here, but these are a testament to how poor the Oil have drafted & developed after the 1st round in the last 15 years

AHL GP
Khaira 133 regular season + 11 playoff games over 4 seasons – 147 NHL GP
Pitlick 196 regular season + 31 playoff games over 5 seasons – 181 NHL GP
VandeVelde 236 regular season + 37 playoff games over 6 seasons – 278 NHL GP
Marincin 187 regular season + 45 playoff games over 7 seasons – 187 NHL GP
Davidson 157 regular season + 31 playoff games over 3 seasons – 162 NHL GP
Colin MacDonald
Liam Reddox
Theo Peckham

godot10

JimmyV1965: Not sure if you’re pulling my leg, but the Oilers have been one of the worst teams in the league over the last 20 years. We’ve made the playoffs five times in 20 years. We have drafted extremely high in most of those years. Outside the first round we have developed one top four dman Jeff Petry and one forward who scored 20 goals, Jarrett Stoll, who did it twice. We have not drafted a 20 goal scorer outside the first round in 18 years. The suck is absolutely staggering actually.

Shawn Horcoff scored 20 goals more than once. So did Mike Comrie (for the OIlers).

Jason Chimera, but not for the Oilers.

godot10

OriginalPouzar:
I wonder what Vegas is looking for as a return for Colin Miller.

Do they have any interest in “grit” for the playoffs with Kris Russell and/or Kass being part of the deal?

Would they be looking for futures, draft picks/prospects.

This is the type of hockey trade that K. Gretz should be looking at. I’d be happy with him at 2RD for the next couple of years I think.

Miller isn’t a #2RD. He is a #3RD. Not the right defensemen for the OIlers, with Persson, Jones, Berglund, Bouchard, and Bear, and not to mention Benning and Manning competing for #3RD. Wrong place to tie up $4 million dollars per season for three more years.

godot10

tileguy:
Question for anyone/everyone,
How many point should Gagner score to justify his $3.15M, or does he just have to ge good in the room?

More points and games than Spooner.

Gagner is clearly the better player, IMHO>

godot10

Kinger_Oil.redux: – LT or someone might correct me, but I can’t think of a bona-fide NHL’er who spent two full years in the AHL that was drafted and developed by the Oil (excluding goalies) in the last 15 years

What is your games played in the NHL threshold, and AHL games played minimun?

Foege Foegele Torpe

OriginalPouzar: In the scenarios you are responding to, its because he is being moved on from Ottawa in a subsequent transaction.

This is set out expressly in the post.

Please clarify for me, I didn’t get that at all.
I read trade Lucic to Ott so they can get to the cap floor.
I will read the post again

Glovjuice

Phil Collins is a multi-instrumentalist, damit.

Bulging Twine

OmJo:
Ryan Holt
@CondorsHolty


Condors dressing room found out during second intermission last night that Currie had scored and the place erupted.

That’s cool

YKOil

DBO:
Not happy we missed on Montour, but no way they dealt him in division.

Does this mean Ristolainen is available now? Rumour was Tampa is after him.

Good question. My guess would be is that Bogosian is now available but if they wanted Nurse I wouldn’t go for less than Ristolainen, and even then I take a hard look at that -22 plus/minus to see how ‘earned’ or ‘bogus’ that number is.

OriginalPouzar

Kinger_Oil.redux: – I’m pretty sure you don’t think we have done a good job and are reaching when you try to identify draft and develop players for us

– Jar is the gold-standard last decade for us.All these guys you mention, they face long odds to surpass Jar, who took years

– There’s strength in numbers, but to the extent past history continues, and the reality of how difficult it is to crack the NHL: these aren’t difference makers for a few years at best.

– Let’s hope they defy the odds, that the Oil changes their draft development past, and a few of them can be Jar + in a few years

No, I don’t think we’ve done a good job drafting and developing over time but I think that changed about 3-4 years ago and we are about to reap the rewards.

For one, the team stopped drafting based on size, character, etc. and started drafting predominantly on skill and recently they started allowing the true skilled kids to actually have material roles in Bakersfield.

This 16 game wining streak is being led by the likes of Benson, Marody, Yamamoto, Jones and Lagesson.

Sure, I’m looking forward to the current crop of rookies and 2nd year pros in Bakersfield and projecting, however, while Khaira (and Pitlick) remain the gold standard (give or take a Petry), I think that’s going to change very soon.

These are real prospects, young, talented, skilled. They are being developed properly and I don’t think I am being a homer or exaggerating when I state that they are on the verge of NHL readiness and, frankly, the depth of potential graduates for next year is so much that there may very well be a few NHL ready kids that are in the AHL.

Things are changing.

You and others can feel free to look back at 5, 10, 20 years ago and speculate the path forward based on the past. Management is changing and the previous regime actually made material positive changes in regards to both drafting and development.

YKOil

godot10: If you think you have a depth player for less than a million (so no cap impact if you are wrong), who hasn’t yet earned financial security money, sign him for as long as you can.If you thing Currie is a player,sign him for three years for up to a million per season.Surprise them, like Dallas surprised Pitlick.He could be extreme value in the 3rd season.If you are wrong.No cap impact.

I have been on this forever. Exactly how I look at it too. Buy-out is cheap if you need roster space.

OriginalPouzar

tileguy: Question for anyone/everyone,
How many point should Gagner score to justify his $3.15M, or does he just have to ge good in the room?

Scanning forwards with cap hits between $3M and 3.5M and, out of apx 35 players, 3 had 40 or more point (40, 41 and 54) and one other was over 30 points.

So, not many actually.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Kinger_Oil.redux: – it’s true that I had to be more precise in my follow up

– drafting and developing players that end of having careers not in Edmonton is not the point

– so if your offering those players up in an attempt to minimize my point that we are not drafting and developing players have at it

– are you using those to conclude that in fact we are good at drafting and developing players ?

– rather than argue and drill down and suggest moving goal posts I’m making a big picture conclusion. Do you think we are good at draft and developing for our benefit?

– Or would you rather simply debate where some of our players ended up and seemingly dismiss the larger point by pointing out a few marginals that got away?

I was simply replying off the top of my head to your question. Your reply invalidated the premise by changing the criteria, I simply mentioned so.

No, obviously we haven’t been great drafting outside of the first round until recently. Every team has more misses than hits though, Kinger. To assert otherwise is to be willfully disingenuous. Hopefully the improved drafting trend continues with the new GM whether he keeps Kretzky and crew or not.

My point was simply that there were some players who exceeded the odds of their draft position, and the unfortunate set of circumstances inherent to being drafted by our team. lol

Pitlick, Gustaffson and probably Oesterle would look alright on our team right now compared to some of the dead weight/character/good in the room types we’re overpaying/overplaying.

Sounds to me like it’s just as much a cap/roster management and talent assessment problem as it is drafting and development. Hopefully that improves.

Also not to be lost in an earnest discussion of this subject is the fact that our farm club system is relatively new. For a long time we shared with other clubs only to see our prized prospects passed over for ice time and development. Once we had a club they seemed to prioritize journeymen AHL players and winning instead of development.

This recent history seems to be changing in real time. Hopefully that upward trend continues.

N64

tileguy:
Question for anyone/everyone,
How many point should Gagner score to justify his $3.15M, or does he just have to ge good in the room?

More than Spooner would for the $3.1 M. And if he can’t do that he belongs in the A like Spooner.

That’s the correct bar. We did not sign Gagner. Anything more than Spooner is a win by Kretzky.

JimmyV1965

Kinger_Oil.redux: – it’s true that I had to be more precise in my follow up

– drafting and developing players that end of having careers not in Edmonton is not the point

– so if your offering those players up in an attempt to minimize my point that we are not drafting and developing players have at it

– are you using those to conclude that in fact we are good at drafting and developing players ?

– rather than argue and drill down and suggest moving goal posts I’m making a big picture conclusion. Do you think we are good at draft and developing for our benefit?

– Or would you rather simply debate where some of our players ended up and seemingly dismiss the larger point by pointing out a few marginals that got away?

I can’t imagine there is a single team in the NHL that drafts and develops worse than us. Drafting the odd guy here and there that manages to play 200 games is an epic fail. At some point, you actually have to draft top six forwards and top four dmen outside the first round. Having said all that, I will actually be shocked if that doesn’t change right away. We’ve never had so many legit prospects bubbling up at the same time, especially on defence.

DBO

Not happy we missed on Montour, but no way they dealt him in division.

Does this mean Ristolainen is available now? Rumour was Tampa is after him.

slopitch

OriginalPouzar:
I wonder what Vegas is looking for as a return for Colin Miller.

Do they have any interest in “grit” for the playoffs with Kris Russell and/or Kass being part of the deal?

Would they be looking for futures, draft picks/prospects.

This is the type of hockey trade that K. Gretz should be looking at. I’d be happy with him at 2RD for the next couple of years I think.

I thought so as well but i cant figure out the healthy scratches (need to look deeper). His fancies could be inflated in a 3rd pairing role. If i was gm, id have a guy looking deep into why.

JimmyV1965

pts2pndr: Not true and blatantly unfair! They had a number of years while winning cups and drafting late that the did not do well! It was very hard for drafted players to unseat the players on the roster. This is a product of a dynasty and does not reflect on the ability or lack there of the management. Take a look at the NYI !

Not sure if you’re pulling my leg, but the Oilers have been one of the worst teams in the league over the last 20 years. We’ve made the playoffs five times in 20 years. We have drafted extremely high in most of those years. Outside the first round we have developed one top four dman Jeff Petry and one forward who scored 20 goals, Jarrett Stoll, who did it twice. We have not drafted a 20 goal scorer outside the first round in 18 years. The suck is absolutely staggering actually.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

tileguy,

I’d say positive GF/GA, and about 30 points would be nice. Also not dragging down his teammates vis a vis various Rel metrics.

JimmyV1965

Bank Shot: The problem is the only three they developed are replacement level players.

Screw development. The Oilers need to draft some players from outside the first round that skip the AHL or spend limited time there and transition into the NHL as top six forwards and top four D-men.

If they can’t do this at some point, they’ll continue to be a speed bump in the NHL.

Skipping the AHL is not usually a good idea. A big part of the problem for Oiler prospects.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

OriginalPouzar,

I guess I don’t see the same skill set (admittedly solely) based off his stats through juniour to AHL aside from an overage season (predictable) and a recent hot streak. However, I do concede you’ve seen his most recent stage of development and that’s likely the best indicator of what he is and isn’t capable of at this point.

Your reaction to a hypothetical contract extension based on small sample size seemed incongruous with my assessment of his career (and deserved opportunity) to date. Plenty of skill players start on the fourth line and have to earn promotions — Pavel Bure comes to mind.

All that said, I’m cheering like hell for him. Who doesn’t like the arrival of Currie in a hurry 😉

OriginalPouzar

Kinger_Oil.redux: – Thanks, fun to look up: I give you Kharia, no others meet my criteria of 2 years in AHL, draft and developped and on our team.We just don’t develop NHL players by keeping them in the AHL for 2 years then they play for us.

– Brutal…

– I asked the question because OP was saying “give him 2 years in the AHL then we will know”We’ve never do that: save Jar, who I hope continues to improve.We need 10 guys like that in the funnel….

– At best in 3 years we might have a difference maker that develops in the AHL over many seasons…

I don’t think its all that relevant when I hear/read “we’ve never done that” or words to that effect. While that may be true (and its not quite accurate with respect to leaving non-first round prospects in the AHL), it doesn’t really matter.

Management has been fired and a new regime is coming in. I don’t care about the OBC, I care about the new POHO and the new GM.

Current upper management has spoke expressly about needed to change how we deal with our prospects and keep them in the AHL for longer.

Things have been changing on the development process (Puljujarvi aside) and that looks to continue going forward.

Sometimes plus forwards do spend a few years in the minor leagues – Shit Gourde took the Josh Currie development path…

JimmyV1965

OriginalPouzar: Jujhar Khaira
Brandon Davidson
Tyler Pitlick

Just off the top of my head.

Tyler Benson, Caleb Jones, William Lagesson – looking good so far – Ethan Bear as well.

I won’t get in to junior prospects as they aren’t “close enough” to reasonably project as NHL players – the above are.

I’m just being bitter. Not exactly a list of all stars. Hoping for better with the new group.

Kinger_Oil.redux

BornInAGretzkyJersey,

– Taylor fedun is turning 31 and his games played this year is almost as much as all his seasons combined. Brad hunt is also turning 31 and has 100 NHL games played.

– it’s fine to pick on the details as a way to disprove a larger theory. It’s an age old debating technique.

– Are you disagreeing with my belief that Edmonton is a poor draft and development team or you do you enjoy correcting misstatements and don’t have an opinion on the matter?

jtblack

tileguy: So you’re saying 40 pts?

25?

Kinger_Oil.redux

BornInAGretzkyJersey:
Kinger_Oil.redux,

Your original criteria said nothing of still in Edmonton.

Moving goalposts aside, there are a number of recent players who were drafted by Edmonton who went on to meet the expectations of their draft position, which is to succeed at development — if not excel.

Taylor Fedun is on the roster in Dallas, btw.

And I meant Mike, I mean Brad Hunt.He’s a roster player in VGK and now MIN this year.

– it’s true that I had to be more precise in my follow up

– drafting and developing players that end of having careers not in Edmonton is not the point

– so if your offering those players up in an attempt to minimize my point that we are not drafting and developing players have at it

– are you using those to conclude that in fact we are good at drafting and developing players ?

– rather than argue and drill down and suggest moving goal posts I’m making a big picture conclusion. Do you think we are good at draft and developing for our benefit?

– Or would you rather simply debate where some of our players ended up and seemingly dismiss the larger point by pointing out a few marginals that got away?

OriginalPouzar

I wonder what Vegas is looking for as a return for Colin Miller.

Do they have any interest in “grit” for the playoffs with Kris Russell and/or Kass being part of the deal?

Would they be looking for futures, draft picks/prospects.

This is the type of hockey trade that K. Gretz should be looking at. I’d be happy with him at 2RD for the next couple of years I think.

tileguy

jtblack: Joey is good in the room. Need more from ANY nhl player. Paid to produce.

So you’re saying 40 pts?