Game 62 2018-19: Oilers at Predators

The formula for success in Edmonton during the McDavid era is to let the franchise player loose for 20+ minutes and then hope the goalie stops 93 percent of the pucks. In going 2-0-1 in recent games, the goaltending has been showing well. That will be key down the stretch and into next season.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group. Outstanding offer is here.

  • New Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers at the deadline: Buy, sell or both?
  • New Jonathan Willis: Jesse Puljujarvi needs a fresh start, but there’s no reason it can’t be in Edmonton
  • Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers and the OHL.
  • Lowetide: Are the 2018-19 Bakersfield Condors the best Edmonton Oilers affiliate ever?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘One of the best hockey games ever’: An oral history of the 2014 women’s Olympic gold-medal game.
  • Lowetide: How can the Oilers successfully sell the new regime to a fan base that is openly angry?
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers trade deadline primer: Focus should be on moves that make life easier for the next GM
  • Lowetide: Cam Talbot’s Oilers career a disappointment save one beautiful spring.
  • Jonathan Willis: Edmonton’s trade for Sam Gagner is a gamble well worth making.
  • Jonathan Willis: Inside the success of the Bakersfield Condors, and what it means for Edmonton
  • Lowetide: The Oilers sure have a lot of problems, but there is a simple solution.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Keith Gretzky on the Oilers trade deadline plan, Andrej Sekera’s return and Jesse Puljujarvi’s season
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ potential roster upheaval might set a record for summer activity
  • Jonathan Willis: Teams should beware of these players at the 2019 NHL trade deadline.
  • Lowetide: It’s time for Oilers owner Daryl Katz to stand and deliver a winning organization.
  • Lowetide: Entry deal AHL forwards give the Oilers an excellent trade pool.
  • Jonathan Willis: An Oilers blueprint for the 2019 NHL free agency period
  • Corey Pronman: 2019 NHL Draft midseason rankings
  • Jonathan Willis: An Oilers blueprint for the 2019 NHL trade deadline.
  • Lowetide: Edmonton’s 2019 entry draft plans may change with new GM but needs are clear
  • Lowetide: Complete Oilers top 20 prospects, Winter 2018

OILERS AFTER 62

  • Oilers in 2015: 22-34-6, 50 points; goal differential -34
  • Oilers in 2016: 33-21-8, 74 points; goal differential +12
  • Oilers in 2017: 27-31-4, 58 points; goal differential -33
  • Oilers in 2018: 26-29-6, 58 points; goal differential -23

This year’s team remains a close match for last season despite the goal differential. The seven wins the 2016-17 team grabbed by this time are everything.

OILERS IN FEBRUARY

  • Oilers in February 2016: 2-10-0, four points; goal differential -22
  • Oilers in February 2017: 6-6-0, 12 points; goal differential -1
  • Oilers in February 2018: 4-7-1, nine points; goal differential -4
  • Oilers in February 2019: 3-5-3, nine points; goal differential -10

WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY

  • On the road to: Philadelphia, Montreal (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-2)
  • At home to: Chicago (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
  • On the road to: Minnesota (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • At home to: San Jose (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
  • On the road to: Pittsburgh, Carolina, NY Islanders (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-3-0)
  • At home to: Arizona, NY Islanders, Anaheim (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 2-0-1)
  • On the road to: Nashville, Toronto, Ottawa (Expected 1-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 7-6-1, 15 points in 14 games
  • Current results: 3-5-3, nine points in 11 games

OILERS ASSETS OUT LIST

Ryan Spooner and Cam Talbot are gone and we’re down to nine names. Two of those are on IR. Edmonton doesn’t have a ton of to give.

  1. RD Matt Benning. He has one more year after this one, $1.9 million AAV. I believe he’s a bonafide NHL third pairing blue and would prefer he remain in Edmonton.
  2. R Alex Chiasson. Trade value might be the best in this group.
  3. R Zack Kassian. Also on the books for another year (at $1.9 million).
  4. R Jesse Puljujarvi. His injury likely means he won’t be dealt.
  5. L Kevin Gravel. He doesn’t cost much and he’s good.
  6. LD Kris Russell. Uncertain he’d waive.
  7. L Tobias Rieder. He has good speed and can PK.
  8. R Alex Petrovic. He is a righty blue.
  9. L Jujhar Khaira. Unlikely he’ll be dealt (injured).

NY Post columnist Larry Brooks published the same general story yesterday. I think this is encouraging. First, the Oilers want a lot to move Puljujarvi, and second there’s a desire to move Milan Lucic before the summer.

50-MAN LIST

  1. G Mikko Koskinen. $4.5 million for three seasons beginning 2019-20.
  2. G Anthony Stolarz. $761,250 this season and then an RFA.
  3. G Shane Starrett. $817,500 this season and then an RFA.
  4. G Dylan Wells. $745,000 this season, the first year of his entry deal
  5. G Stuart Skinner. $784,166 this season, the first year of his entry deal.
  6. LD Oscar Klefbom. $4.167 million through summer 2023.
  7. LD Darnell Nurse. $3.2 million this and next season.
  8. LD Andrej Sekera. $5.5 million this year and through 2021 summer. His return has been encouraging.
  9. LD Brandon Manning. $2.25 million this year and next.
  10. LD Caleb Jones. $720,000 this and next season.
  11. LD William Lagesson. $741,666 this season and next.
  12. LD Keegan Lowe. $675,000 this and next season.
  13. LD Dmitri Samorukov. His entry level deal starts this fall ($855,833).
  14. RD Adam Larsson. $4.166 million this season and two more after.
  15. LD Kris Russell. $4 million this and two more seasons.
  16. RD Matt Benning. $1.9 million this and next season.
  17. RD Joel Persson. $1 million next year and then RFA.
  18. RD Ethan Bear. $720,000 this and next year.
  19. RD Evan Bouchard. $925,000 entry deal kicks in this fall.
  20. RD Ryan Mantha. $870,000 next season if he plays.
  21. LC Connor McDavid. $12.5 million through 2026.
  22. LC Leon Draisaitl. $8.5 million through 2025 summer.
  23. LC Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. $6 million this and two seasons after.
  24. RC Kyle Brodziak. $1.15 million this and next season.
  25. LC Colby Cave. $675,000 this and next season.
  26. RC Josh Currie. $687,500 this and next season.
  27. RC Tyler Vesel. $735,000 this year and then RFA.
  28. RC Cameron Hebig. $759,166 this and next season.
  29. LC Colin Larkin. $690,000 and then RFA.
  30. LW Milan Lucic. $6 million through 2023 summer.
  31. LW Tobias Rieder. $2 million this season then RFA.
  32. LW Jujhar Khaira. $675,000 this season then RFA.
  33. LW Tyler Benson. $808,333 this and the next two seasons.
  34. LW Joe Gambardella. $725,000 this year then RFA.
  35. LW Nolan Vesey. $817,500 this and next season.
  36. LW Ostap Safin. $770,833 entry deal starts in the fall.
  37. RW Sam Gagner. $3.15 million this and next season.
  38. RW Zack Kassian. $1.95 million this and next season.
  39. RW Jesse Puljujarvi. $925,000 this year then RFA.
  40. RW Ty Rattie. $800,000 this year then RFA.
  41. RW Cooper Marody. $925,000 this year and the two years after.
  42. RW Kailer Yamamoto. $894,166 this year and the two years after.
  43. RW Kirill Maksimov. $770,833 entry deal starts in the fall.

I have not included RFA Robin Norell and all of the UFA’s (Alex Chiasson, Alex Petrovic, Kevin Gravel). Edmonton also has some prospects (Ryan McLeod, Filip Berglund, Hayden Hawkey and Vincent Desharnais) they may want to sign.

BRAND NEW DAY

There are a bunch of things Peter Chiarelli didn’t contemplate that Keith Gretzky and his successor will do in the coming days. It’s human nature. Chiarelli signed Milan Lucic and drafted Jesse Puljujarvi, the new man has no attachment to either player. We probably won’t see those two names exit today, but those stories above tell us the organization is prepared to move on from the PC solutions.

FUTURE QUESTIONS

The new general manager will want to construct a roster in his own image (they all do, but this new guy needs to fix this group). I think we can agree there are six players (McDavid, Leon, Nuge, Klefbom, Larsson, Nurse) the new manager can build around, with the understanding that three of them (Nuge, Larsson and Nurse) have contract pressure points a year or two down the road.

I’ll be on beginning at 10, offering my opinions and would love to see your texts at 10-1260.

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564 Responses to "Game 62 2018-19: Oilers at Predators"

« Older Comments
  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10:

    How bad is Russell?Rutherford chose Gudbranson over him.

    Kris Russell has a full NMC and an express desire to stay in Western Canada – PIT is currently a non-playoff team nowhere near the West or in Canada. Considering that a few days ago it came out that management had not spoke to Russell about waiving his NMC, the above statement is wild speculation.

    Sure, bash management for not asking Russell to waive but I would suggest that there weren’t discussion between the teams.

    I’m not here to defend Russell generally but there is no indication that PIT would choose EG over him.

  2. Andy Dufresne says:

    Man Poile has done so many things to make his team better over the last 5 years and no cups….. GMing is hard.

  3. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    OriginalPouzar:Considering that a few days ago it came out that management had not spoke to Russell about waiving his NMC

    Sure, bash management for not asking Russell to waive but I would suggest that there weren’t discussion between the teams.

    If management didn’t ask him for his list, they’ve lost the plot. You need to know your options before entering negotiations. Any and all options.

  4. OriginalPouzar says:

    Great pass from Rieder to Chiasson there but Chiasson took too long to get it off his stick and it was deflected out.

  5. OriginalPouzar says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey: If management didn’t ask him for his list, they’ve lost the plot.You need to know your options before entering negotiations.Any and all options.

    Well, he doesn’t have to give a list – he’s got a full NMC.

    He does have to provide a 10 team list in the summer though – the thought was maybe seeing what teams he’d provide and get ahead of a potential summer trade and expedite it.

    Russell had/has a full veto right now.

  6. Lowetide says:

    I like that Rieder isn’t even trying to score anymore. Just skate it into the corner.

  7. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wow, Rieder has been all over the puck around the net so far – its coming.

    This line Rieder/Drai/Chiasson line has been very good early.

  8. Zelepukin says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey: If management didn’t ask him for his list, they’ve lost the plot.You need to know your options before entering negotiations.Any and all options.

    There were no negotiations. See the great thing from the players perspective on a NMC is that not only do you get to control your fate, but you also control the flow of information between yourself and management.

  9. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Zelepukin,

    Except he could agree to be traded. Give a list. Lucic too.

    Doesn’t mean Kretzky will try or even has to trade him; more that knowing options empowers him in negotiations. The number one aim isn’t placating under performing veterans… it’s about making the team better.

  10. OriginalPouzar says:

    NSH takes a penalty 200 feet from their own net – time to take advantage!

  11. BONE207 says:

    Reider passes ok, skates around ok but hitting the net with a shot is beyond impossible for the man. Leon should lend him a stick.

  12. Tbag says:

    Toby Reider, only guy in the NHL that should “dump and chase” on a break away!

  13. LMHF#1 says:

    Wow…now THAT was a dive.

  14. Andy Dufresne says:

    Lowetide:
    I like that Rieder isn’t even trying to score anymore. Just skate it into the corner.

    lol

  15. OriginalPouzar says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Except he could agree to be traded.Give a list.Lucic too.

    Doesn’t mean Kretzky has to trade him; more that knowing options empowers him in negotiations.

    Sure but my point is Russell didn’t have to and considering trading Russell at this point would put a massive hole in the lineup, I understand why they didn’t.

    Yes, moving Russ in the off-season in conjunction with cap space for a true 2RD should be a priority but, doing it now, with no ability to fill those minutes, that would not be a great situation.

  16. nelson88 says:

    One advantage of not having McDavid is the oilers simplify their game. Really hope that when he returns the other 3 lines stick to the plot. Hitch also needs quit with the blender and roll the lines a bit more

  17. Andy Dufresne says:

    Heck of a good road game against a really good team….WTF?

  18. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    BONE207,

    Considering Toby is so far up shit’s creek, he could certainly use Leon’s canoe paddle.

  19. Andy Dufresne says:

    and the refs arent even screwing us….WTF??

    Edit: except the dive….Ardvidson can fly…..well technically…leap and glide…..

  20. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    I’d be content to finish the season with Gravel/Manning/Jones and cap space if they found a suitable trade partner today that met Kris’ requirements.

    We’re not in playoff contention.

    And to reiterate: I’m not saying they should have traded KR… simply they should have had the list of acceptable destinations from ALL players holding trade protection to aid negotiations.

  21. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    and the refs arent even screwing us….WTF??

    Is it… dare I say… A MCDAVID CONSPIRACY???

  22. OriginalPouzar says:

    Big rebound given up by Koskinen and the game is tied.

    Great breakout pass by Subban.

    Tough to control that rebound off the rush – may have been intentional by Rocko…

  23. LMHF#1 says:

    Kris Russell was never informed that rover is no longer a hockey position…

  24. OriginalPouzar says:

    Nuge with a pretty damn weak play on the boards and the puck goes back to Subban who beats Koskinen over the shoulder from the point – I’ve got to assume Koskinen was screened.

    Not great on Nuge there – unusual.

  25. Caller Zen says:

    Bah! Nuge skating in quicksand or what …bad, bad play.

  26. OriginalPouzar says:

    Koskinen beat again on a shot from distance – off the post/crossbar though

  27. striatic says:

    Is there a worse passer in the NHL than Milan Lucic? Not a rhetorical question.

  28. Todd Macallan says:

    striatic:
    Is there a worse passer in the NHL than Milan Lucic? Not a rhetorical question.

    Kris Russell says hi.

  29. Andy Dufresne says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Koskinen beat again on a shot from distance – off the post/crossbar though

    Pretty sure it was tipped No?

  30. BONE207 says:

    If Koski would stand up, those point shots would not go over his shoulder but instead hit him in the knee
    Run & gun hockey…love it. I wish the Oilers had a gun though.

  31. OriginalPouzar says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    OriginalPouzar,

    I’d be content to finish the season with Gravel/Manning/Jones and cap space if they found a suitable trade partner today that met Kris’ requirements.

    We’re not in playoff contention.

    And to reiterate: I’m not saying they should have traded KR… simply they should have had the list of acceptable destinations from ALL players holding trade protection to aid negotiations.

    Sure, and I’m just saying that list of acceptable destination may be “Calgary” and that’s it.

    That contract is much more tradeable in the off-season – on numerous levels.

  32. OriginalPouzar says:

    Nice glove save by Koskinen across the grain.

    NSH taking over now.

  33. BONE207 says:

    Kass has been good knocking down pucks today. Nuge not his deft self though

  34. jake70 says:

    Are teams targeting Nurse. He is in the thick of a lot of extracurricular stuff lately. He’s gonna lose it some night and I pity the fool….

  35. OriginalPouzar says:

    Was tough to pay close attention with the competing games but a somewhat sleepy period between Bakersfield and Tuscon.

    Condors with a 7-5 shot advantage as they are scoreless in the first intermission.

  36. Zelepukin says:

    Todd Macallan: Kris Russell says hi.

    Trick question. Kris shoots the puck towards people and Lucic pushes it.

  37. Zelepukin says:

    jake70:
    Are teams targeting Nurse.He is in the thick of a lot of extracurricular stuff lately.He’s gonna lose it some night and I pity the fool….

    Only because Nurse comes from the school of Pronger in constantly jabbing, sticking guys infront of the net and being a hated d-man to play against.

  38. OriginalPouzar says:

    Zelepukin: Only because Nurse comes from the school of Pronger in constantly jabbing, sticking guys infront of the net and being a hated d-man to play against.

    I’m just fine with that…..

  39. Lowetide says:

    2-1 Nashville after two, I didn’t catch the shots.

  40. Andy Dufresne says:

    Lowetide:
    2-1 Nashville after two, I didn’t catch the shots.

    Nashville 22- Oilers 18

  41. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wow, Vesel just showed some hand/skill I didn’t think he had with a shot little sauce pass for a quick chance by Gust – no goal but a nice flash of skill.

  42. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Andy Dufresne: I get what you’re saying.

    IMO the truth probably lies somewhere between how I stated it and how you have stated it.

    Its an unusual business model compared to what you or I would be used to.

    Its franchises, many of which as you say have revenues in the $100m range which is small in business terms.

    But its franchises with net asset values of $250m on the low end and $1.3 billion on the high end.

    And they are for all intents and purposes, monopolies.

    When I speak of complexities, its running a $500m franchise in all of its facets: Unions, Agencies, Municipal Governments, Ad Revenue, Merchandising, Building Mgt, Insurance, Scheduling, Travel, Security, Tax Jurisdiction; Currency Exchange Mgt; Cap Mgt across years; AHL Affiliate; Sports Medicine, An elite, entitled, well represented work force, etc

    Add to that that at the local level you’ve got community investment, charity events, advertising, corporate events, and with most teams a larger tie in to the Sports and Entertainment Group.

    Also at the individual franchise level, its not like a typical local medium size business. All business is cut-throat. But in most local businesses, while extemely competive, you have competitors who are sometimes allies, even partners at times. I get the sense that the business of professional sports is an extremely cut throat business at the level at which it is competetive. I could be wrong about this but it appears that teams are out to destroy one another (all in the name of winning Stanley31 teams 1 Cup). They certainly arent out to “partner” in most cases.

    Im leaving out alot. But I have reason to beleive its a complex business model.

    In the wood business (or I in the IT buisness) you could lay claim to having many or all of the individual facets of business listed above. I just dont think they rise to the level of complexity that you will/would find if you owned an NHL franchise. Just one mans opinion.

    Nothing about you personally. Just my view of the world of professional sports.Complex and Dymanic. And not written about openly and ubiquitosly as most business models are.

    One person doesn’t do all the things you listed as tasks.

    They are delegated, same as anywhere else.

    It’s not unusual for a business to have to consider many variables in a business. It’s pretty standard.

    I think the NHL business (team wise) would actually be easier to run due to:

    1) Closed market – no worrying about new competitors who may or may not have a competitive advantage

    2) No new large competitors entering the market with the ability to buy market share. The cap controls a lot of that

    3) Free assists every year. I wish I could draft my assets for free and if I sucked I got first crack at the best ones!!

    Some teams have better revenue so they can spend more on non-player assets, but that’s one of the few disparities.

    Taxes are another disparity, but if you look at the distribution of talent in the league, it doesn’t follow tax rates very closely.

    The entire job of a NHL GM revolves around procuring and developing talent.

    The only big expense outside of that is marketing and that gets much easier with talented teams.

    The fact that many teams run the entire player evaluation department with opinions and memories is ridiculous.

    The fact that its a closed market that distributes free assets with the best ones to the worst teams perpetuates front offices that would get kicked the the curb in 2 years in an open market.

  43. Andy Dufresne says:

    LT you’ve mentioned the Big M Draisaitl comparison a few times

    Read a Bio that said “Many….saw those rushes less as gallops and more like canters. One hockey magazine headlined a feature on Mahovlich, “Superstar or Super Lazy?”

    But more interesting to me and applicable to Leon and JP perhaps was this comment by Mahovlich while with the Birmingham Bulls, …..

    “Mahovlich was placed on an unproductive line with enforcers Frank Beaton and Dave Hanson, one of the Hanson Brothers who had been in the movie Slap Shot. According to John Brophy, when a reporter asked Mahovlich what was wrong, he replied, “I don’t know, but I seem to play a lot better with Howe and Delvecchio.”

  44. Nit64 says:

    Joey G. 1-0
    07:12 2nd
    Laggesson/Russell

  45. OriginalPouzar says:

    Condors with a real strong first 7 minutes of the 2nd and are rewarded with a goal.

    Joe G., yet again, bangs in the rebound of a Lagesson point shot. P. Russell with the 2nd assist on the play back to Willie.

  46. Nit64 says:

    1-1 on PK

  47. OriginalPouzar says:

    I missed the goal but it looks like Tuscon tied it up – I literally looked away from like 20 seconds. Would have been a PP goal.

    Trade Starrett!

  48. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    PinkSocks: In and of itself it’s a great pickup to add Stone.Big picture though, is trading 3 1sts, 3 2nds and a 3rd worth it to add Stone and Pacioretty?I’d argue not, especially when they could have been in on any of Stone, Duchene or Panarin in the summer.

    They obviously targeted Stone and were able to keep from going to free agency.

    That’s worth a lot. No guarantee they get him in the summer and get involved in a bidding war.

    I get the assets out are valuable.

    GMGM made the decision to be an upper tier team now and given the age of a lot of his best assets it’s probably the right decision.

  49. nelson88 says:

    Brandon manning. The gift that keeps on giving

  50. OriginalPouzar says:

    The boys have tied up games fairly late a few times recently – lets get er’ done a little earlier tonight, please. Maybe even on this PP.

  51. Lowetide says:

    Leon scored again.

  52. OriginalPouzar says:

    Drai with yet another goal – my goodness.

    Off a rebound of a Chiasson shot!

  53. Lowetide says:

    I believe that should be Draisaitl (Chiasson, Nuge). Now 2-2.

  54. Andy Dufresne says:

    Draisaitl is a Beast

  55. dcsj says:

    nice second deadly backhand by Drai

  56. Andy Dufresne says:

    Can You Say Value Contract!

  57. OriginalPouzar says:

    I know that goal was a PP but we are seeing the Leon can drive offence – its starting to become irrefutable.

    Its clear to me that, except in certain situations, at 5 on 5, he should play on a separate line. Sure, maybe with Nuge but also with Nuge as 3C sometimes.

    I think these two games plus the game McDavid missed sick recently are proving to Drai himself how dominant he can be offensively.

  58. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Gerta Rauss: Philly offer sheeted NSH with the current Shea Weber contract (NSH matched)

    Although your point about Kevin Lowe does have merit..:)

    SJS got Neiemi via an offersheet to Hjarlmasson which they matched and then couldn’t afford Neiemi’s arbiter awarded 2.5MM

    There’s been a lot of offer sheets (including Selanne and Sakic) most get matched: https://thehockeywriters.com/rfas-and-offer-sheets-a-look-back/

  59. JimmyV1965 says:

    I’ve really seen enough of Reider playing in the top six. He has ZERO!!! goals. I don’t care what his frickin possession numbers are. He has no clue in the ozone, and he’s had two giveaways in the dzone tonight, in high danger areas.

  60. Andy Dufresne says:

    This has to bevery encouraging for McDavid to witness this.

  61. Andy Dufresne says:

    Koskinen the equal of Rinne so far

  62. deardylan says:

    We need Dr.Drai suspended to let the columnists see how good Nuge-Dangerfield really is.

  63. OriginalPouzar says:

    Benson from Marody and the Condors regain the lead!

  64. Andy Dufresne says:

    Excellent road game by the Oilers.

  65. Andy Dufresne says:

    I like Chaisson. Id resign him.

  66. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I know that goal was a PP but we are seeing the Leon can drive offence – its starting to become irrefutable.

    Its clear to me that, except in certain situations, at 5 on 5, he should play on a separate line.Sure, maybe with Nuge but also with Nuge as 3C sometimes.

    I think these two games plus the game McDavid missed sick recently are proving to Drai himself how dominant he can be offensively.

    #TellMeSomethingIDontAlreadyKnow #DraiGoingGenoAlert

  67. Andy Dufresne says:

    Why the refs hef to be so anal?

  68. greenshifter says:

    wtf koskinen

  69. Andy Dufresne says:

    WHO ARE THESE GUYS?!?!?

  70. OriginalPouzar says:

    Some solid, solid PK saves by Koskinen.

    Not sure all the goals were unstoppable but he hasn’t let in the “next one” – plus game so far.s regain the lead!

  71. orangepylon says:

    Hope 77 is ok.

  72. Réal Goudenyéu says:

    So 77 done for the season?

  73. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Andy Dufresne,

    Its like most other Triilion dollar businesses

    NHL total revenue won’t hit $5B this year.

    If it does, that would be 1/2 of 1% of a Trillion.

    So it would take 200 NHLs to get a Trillion in revenue.

    All industries are described by the annual revenue so your repeated use of “Trillion” is not good and very far from correct.

    Here’s some scale for you:

    PCL construction, which has their headquarters in Edmonton had revenues of 6.8B in 2017

    So one company based in Edmonton is about 40% larger than the entire NHL.

    One of my competitors is flooring industry behemoth Shaw whose revenues are 4B. Almost as large as the entire NHL.

    One of my close friends in business use to run the entire hard surface division for Shaw.

    The NHL is not big as an industry.

    NHL teams are not large complex businesses compared to many.

    They just aren’t.

  74. OriginalPouzar says:

    Some solid, solid PK saves by Koskinen.

    Not sure all the goals were unstoppable but he hasn’t let in the “next one” – plus game so far.

  75. Andy Dufresne says:

    Im calling it now.

    Reider with the OVERRTTIME WINNER!

  76. nelson88 says:

    Excellent effort!

    Reider from Dr. Drai for the win.

  77. Andy Dufresne says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Some solid, solid PK saves by Koskinen.

    Not sure all the goals were unstoppable but he hasn’t let in the “next one” – plus game so far.

    Its OK OP…….you can just say it…..”You like him….YOU REALLY LIKE HIM!”

  78. deardylan says:

    Personally i would have preferred to write the script of the Oilers last 4 seasons than to have written the whole Encyclopedia Britannica

  79. JimmyV1965 says:

    Toby Reider in OT. You can’t make this crap up.

  80. Andy Dufresne says:

    Like I said

    Reider responsible for the OVEEERTIME WINNER!

  81. JimmyV1965 says:

    And he promptly takes penalty. WooHoo!!

  82. orangepylon says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Like I said

    Reider responsible for the OVEEERTIME WINNER!

    Lolz

  83. Zelepukin says:

    JimmyV1965:
    And he promptly takes penalty. WooHoo!!

    Well he definitely can’t score from the box.

  84. nelson88 says:

    Lagesson with 2 apples tonight and a strong season. Would like to see him get a chance with the big club

  85. OriginalPouzar says:

    Drai’s season pace is now 50 goals – and he’s hot as hell…..

  86. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    LOL

    Fox broadcast crew in NSH calling Leon a couple nicknames:

    Long Arms Leon
    and
    The Octopus

  87. OriginalPouzar says:

    Damn Russell – you’ve got to get that clear, come on!!!!

  88. Andy Dufresne says:

    OK pull the goalie.

    play it 4 on 4

    get possession and win it

  89. LMHF#1 says:

    Why would you not change the D when you have a faceoff after 30 or so seconds?

    Not sound.

  90. OriginalPouzar says:

    So Klef is indeed not in the game, is he?

  91. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Andy Dufresne,

    The NSH broadcast crew have been effusive in their praise of MK Ultra tonight.

  92. Andy Dufresne says:

    Sekera understands possesion in OT

  93. Dr. Taboggan says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Was he injured?

  94. OriginalPouzar says:

    Too bad we only got a minute or so of 3 on 3.

  95. godot10 says:

    Dr. Taboggan:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Was he injured?

    I think he took another shot off his wonky hand.

  96. Andy Dufresne says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Andy Dufresne,

    The NSH broadcast crew have been effusive in their praise of MK Ultra tonight.

    Koskinen the better Goalie tonight

  97. OriginalPouzar says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    OK pull the goalie.

    play it 4 on 4

    get possession and win it

    I think the team loses its guaranteed point if they pull their goalie in OT and lose – I think.

  98. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide:
    I like that Rieder isn’t even trying to score anymore. Just skate it into the corner.

    Just like Hull when he played for Hitch

  99. Andy Dufresne says:

    quick release by FOrsberg

  100. Andy Dufresne says:

    GAGNERRRRR

  101. OriginalPouzar says:

    Atta boy Sam!!!

  102. Dr. Taboggan says:

    godot10,

    Yikes.

  103. Andy Dufresne says:

    Leon deserved a win tonight

  104. deardylan says:

    Life, we learn too late, is in the living, the tissue of every net.

  105. OriginalPouzar says:

    What a fun game to watch – too bad they couldn’t get the second point.

    Great job.

    McDavid is going to be fire on Wed.

  106. Andy Dufresne says:

    Man….Nashville can put out ALOT of great shootour performers

  107. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    OP, I may have missed it but did the Condors win tonight?

  108. Andy Dufresne says:

    Leon and Mikko with Stars tonight…….as it should be.

  109. digger50 says:

    Andy Dufresne: Koskinen the better Goalie tonight

    He had a great game.

    Shoot out not so much! 0-4

  110. Bling says:

    That Forsberg shootout goal was complete filth. Off-balance, off-key, off-beat, and just a slime-ball of a release.

  111. SK Oiler Fan says:

    Was that Conklin in for the SO?
    Man he looked awckward and off his angles.

  112. Nit64 says:

    Decidedly Skeptical Fan:
    OP, I may have missed it but did the Condors win tonight?

    Up 2-1 early in 3rd

  113. Andy Dufresne says:

    If Im McDavid watching that game Im hyped to get back in.

  114. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    Nit64: Up 2-1 early in 3rd

    Thank you.

  115. theDjdj says:

    OriginalPouzar: I think the team loses its guaranteed point if they pull their goalie in OT and lose – I think.

    You are correct

  116. Bulging Twine says:

    Dr. Taboggan:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Was he injured?

    slash to his injured hand

  117. OriginalPouzar says:

    Dr. Taboggan:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Was he injured?

    He was slashed on the hand with the broken finger and didn’t return.

  118. Chief Inspector says:

    OriginalPouzar: He was slashed on the hand with the broken finger and didn’t return.
    Penalty on the play?

  119. Nit64 says:

    Condors 17th straight win (tied with Philly for 2nd longest AHL win streak)
    3-1 with empty netter with 1 second (Russell)

  120. OriginalPouzar says:

    Joe G trying to be a good guy and makes a bad mental play – likely could have easily put one in the empty net but passed it off and they didn’t score, then he made a poor backhand pass across the opposition blue that got cut off – not good Joe but no harm was done.

    P. Russell does put it in the empty net with one second left and, yes, that is 17 straight wins.

    Starrett stops 19 of 20 – solid – didn’t need to be spectacular from what I was able to see.

  121. Dr. Taboggan says:

    Koski has looked very awkward in both of the recent shootout loses.

  122. OriginalPouzar says:

    Decidedly Skeptical Fan:
    OP, I may have missed it but did the Condors win tonight?

    They started an hour after the Oil game – just finished a few minutes ago – that is 17 straight!!!!

  123. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Dr. Taboggan,

    Does the KHL have shootouts to end OT?

    I know it’s a rule in IIHF competition but unsure of how our comrades decide tied games.

  124. Glass says:

    Calling the Condors to set a new 2nd highest scoring streak record at 18, then lose their back-to-back game against San Jose Barracuda.

  125. Professor Q says:

    OriginalPouzar: He was slashed on the hand with the broken finger and didn’t return.

    The Hockey Gods must be crazy.

  126. JimmyV1965 says:

    If this talk about Connor Brown is a real thing, I hope the Oilers jump all over it in the offseason. He would be a great buy-low candidate who would easily fit into our top six. Add in one even better winger and the Oil are cooking with gas.

  127. jtblack says:

    Biggest winner today. TAMPA

    West loaded up. East was quiet.

    Tough road for anyteam , bit Tampa looks good

  128. Wilde says:

    Andy Dufresne: You lost me. Lets try again later. Enjoy the game.
    Honest. No hard feelings.

    nty

  129. slopitch says:

    Drai has come a long ways from the first 2 games this season where I remember being worried about him. I know it was just 2 games but he looked baaad. And now hes driving a line with little help vs a cup contender. Beauty!

    Is dreamy out? I hope not. Im calling the oilers to miss out on the playoffs barely and get the 3rd pick! 😉 They’ve played well the last 5 games.

  130. Glovjuice says:

    Phi Collins is a multi-instrumentalist extroidanaire.

  131. Rich M says:

    Was at the game tonight and sat with a large group of Oilers fans in the all-inclusive zone (end where the Oilers defended twice).

    Great group of people who got here despite some flight chaos this afternoon. The couple right next to me got their picture with Wayne Gretzky twice tonight. After the 2nd picture, Gretz was sitting next to Garth Brooks and their night was made. Could not believe how loud the building was on a Monday night in Nashville. I hope the rest of their trip is great.

    Quick thoughts on the game:

    Draisaitl is a beast. Most dangerous man on the ice. His shorty was a beauty, opened Rinne up. His finish on Chiasson’s shot, was perfect.

    Thought Koskinen deserved better. Made some really good saves, calm in the net. Went down early (what is is about goalies always going down on shots and not standing up?). Can’t hang this on him.

    Sekera made so many good outlet passes. Puck moving north with him on the ice. Welcome back.

    Russell plays defense like the Nashville defensemen. Doesn’t stand guys up at the blue and force the play. Neither does the Nashville defense.

    Reider will never score again.

    Hope Klefbom is ok.

    Cheers!

  132. Bank Shot says:

    What happened to Klefbom?

    Did he sleep on a pea or something?

  133. Bag of Pucks says:

    Honest question. Why is anyone defending Oilers mgmt at this point? After 12+ years of this crap?

    It’s like defending Trump, except the Oilers have been an embarrassment for far longer.

    It’s got to be Stockholm Syndrome, right?

  134. Dr. Taboggan says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Are people still defending management?

  135. JimmyV1965 says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Honest question. Why is anyone defending Oilers mgmt at this point? After 12+ years of this crap?

    It’s like defending Trump, except the Oilers have been an embarrassment for far longer.

    It’s got to be Stockholm Syndrome, right?

    I don’t think anyone has defended mngt. Some people defended Gretzky today for not making any trades. I don’t think they were defending mngt.

  136. Gerta Rauss says:

    Rich M,
    thanks for that Rich

    NSH is one building I’d like to see an NHL game in-maybe even with the Oilers

    *rimshot

  137. Pescador says:

    Andy Dufresne: Yeah. Toby needs to take it out in the alley….bump and grind and pot an ugly one….so to speak…..

    Bigger the slump
    Bigger the buster

  138. Wilde says:

    Bank Shot:
    What happened to Klefbom?

    Did he sleep on a pea or something?

    hand injury, got slashed, no other info afaik

  139. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV1965:
    If this talk about Connor Brown is a real thing, I hope the Oilers jump all over it in the offseason. He would be a great buy-low candidate who would easily fit into our top six. Add in one even better winger and the Oil are cooking with gas.

    A career high of 36 points would easily fit in to the top 6. Unfortunately, that is probably correct for next year, however, within a couple of years, when cap space opens up, that should change. Just need to be a bit patient and not pay to open up cap space sooner (i.e. do NOT buyout Manning, etc.).

  140. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Honest question. Why is anyone defending Oilers mgmt at this point? After 12+ years of this crap?

    It’s like defending Trump, except the Oilers have been an embarrassment for far longer.

    It’s got to be Stockholm Syndrome, right?

    What was done by previous regimes 5, 10, 15 years ago has no bearing on analyzing current decisions.

    I mean what does Tambellini signing Andrew Ference have to do with Keith Gretzky not trading Kris Russell at the 2019 deadline besides nothing?

    I will analyze current management’s decisions based on the current situation and the path forward without regard to the last 12 years.

    The premise that the last 12 years of failure should have a bearing on decisions going forward is the type of thinking that will lead to management making risky moves in the name of immediate improvement – trading away cost controlled and potential value assets – that could serve to prolong the cap crunch.

  141. JimmyV1965 says:

    OriginalPouzar: A career high of 36 points would easily fit in to the top 6. Unfortunately, that is probably correct for next year, however, within a couple of years, when cap space opens up, that should change.Just need to be a bit patient and not pay to open up cap space sooner (i.e. do NOT buyout Manning, etc.).

    He can score 20 in top six role, maybe more, and would force prospects to play at a good NHL level before cracking the top six. Has a cap hit of 2.1 mill next year and will still have one year as RFA when his contract expires the following year.

  142. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV1965: He can score 20 in top six role, maybe more, and would force prospects to play at a good NHL level before cracking the top six. Has a cap hit of 2.1 mill next year and will still have one year as RFA when his contract expires the following year.

    Oh, I never meant to imply that he wouldn’t be a solid acquisition at the right acquisition cost just that, ultimately, he should be a middle six guy, not a top 6 guy. Given current roster construction, yes, he would very likely see lots of time in the top 6, however, over the next few years, as cap space is created and the depth of assets increased, he should get bumped down to the middle 6 and that’s the type of forward depth of a contender.

  143. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: Oh, I never meant to imply that he wouldn’t be a solid acquisition at the right acquisition cost just that, ultimately, he should be a middle six guy, not a top 6 guy. Given current roster construction, yes, he would very likely see lots of time in the top 6, however, over the next few years, as cap space is created and the depth of assets increased, he should get bumped down to the middle 6 and that’s the type of forward depth of a contender.

    What is the right acquisition cost? Benning?

  144. London Jon says:

    Andy Dufresne: ~ Many Financial Advisors would indeed leave your tanking stocks in the portfoilio because they get paid based on your account balance not your profitability; Of course they’d tell you its because youre an investor, not a trader ~

    Index Funds my firends. US Dollar Index Funds when the CND dollar is high. Currency Neutral Index Funds when the CDN dollar is low. Short Term Bond Funds in times of uncertainty. Technology and Science when things are stable.

    Dont be greedy. Dont try and predict the direction markets will move in. Rather, React when they do move. Pare down you investments as markets near highs and restock the portfoiliio when markets correct / tumble. DO ALL OF THIS INCREMENTALLY.

    OVERIDING RULE.Trust no one with your money, not even me.

    So… ‘Dont try to predict the direction of the market’

    But…do sell down risk when the markets are ‘nearing highs’ and then buy back (growth stock) risk when the markets are about to rebound.

    So…in summary don’t try to time the market, just sell equities when markets are about to drop and buy them back at a low valuation when they’re about to go back up again.

    Why do I never think about doing this 😀

  145. Genjutsu says:

    OriginalPouzar: What was done by previous regimes 5, 10, 15 years ago has no bearing on analyzing current decisions.

    I mean what does Tambellini signing Andrew Ference have to do with Keith Gretzky not trading Kris Russell at the 2019 deadline besides nothing?

    I will analyze current management’s decisions based on the current situation and the path forward without regard to the last 12 years.

    The premise that the last 12 years of failure should have a bearing on decisions going forward is the type of thinking that will lead to management making risky moves in the name of immediate improvement – trading away cost controlled and potential value assets – that could serve to prolong the cap crunch.

    Have to say that in the past year or so you’ve quietly become my favorite thing about this blog. Very informative and consistently insightful posts.

    Really appreciate the work you put in here sir. It can be a dark place here at times in a losing season and you continue to be a beacon of reason and hope.

    Thank you.

  146. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar: What was done by previous regimes 5, 10, 15 years ago has no bearing on analyzing current decisions.

    I mean what does Tambellini signing Andrew Ference have to do with Keith Gretzky not trading Kris Russell at the 2019 deadline besides nothing?

    I will analyze current management’s decisions based on the current situation and the path forward without regard to the last 12 years.

    The premise that the last 12 years of failure should have a bearing on decisions going forward is the type of thinking that will lead to management making risky moves in the name of immediate improvement – trading away cost controlled and potential value assets – that could serve to prolong the cap crunch.

    Tambellini did not sign Andrew Ference. MacT did.

  147. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: What is the right acquisition cost? Benning?

    I don’t know what the right cost is but, if we could acquire him for Matt Benning, given we seem to have lots of potential options for 3RD coming up, then, yes, that seems reasonable.

  148. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: Tambellini did not sign Andrew Ference.MacT did.

    Sure, fair enough, point remains the same.

  149. OriginalPouzar says:

    Genjutsu,

    Hey, thanks, I appreciate that – I’m not everyone’s cup of tea, clearly!

  150. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Genjutsu,

    Hey, thanks, I appreciate that – I’m not everyone’s cup of tea, clearly!

    See, that’s your problem right there. If you tried being whiskey- rather than tea – you’d find this blog much more receptive.

  151. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    London Jon: So… ‘Dont try to predict the direction of the market’

    – The disciplined way of doing this is rebalancing: it’s not timing the market. Determine your risk profile, and that is the anchor. So if you have a 70% equity weighting, you ought to at least quarterly, make sure that you remain at 70%

    – This isn’t timing the market: rather if your equities go up and are 75%: thats your discipline to trim and get back to 70. Conversely, the market tanks and your equities fall to 65%: you buy. Sure your never hitting tops and bottoms, but asset allocation like this will increase the value of your portfolio over time, much more than simply buy and hold.

    – And I disagree with buying market ETF’s: unless you want to “be the market”, which in Canada is almost entirely comprised of 4 sectors: Oil and Gas/Natural resources, Pipelines, Banks and REITS: so commodity leverage and interest rate sensitive sectors only: that’s not the long-term return profile, diversity, cyclical and volatility that a long-term investor should seek IMO

  152. Bag of Pucks says:

    OriginalPouzar: What was done by previous regimes 5, 10, 15 years ago has no bearing on analyzing current decisions.

    I mean what does Tambellini signing Andrew Ference have to do with Keith Gretzky not trading Kris Russell at the 2019 deadline besides nothing?

    I will analyze current management’s decisions based on the current situation and the path forward without regard to the last 12 years.

    The premise that the last 12 years of failure should have a bearing on decisions going forward is the type of thinking that will lead to management making risky moves in the name of immediate improvement – trading away cost controlled and potential value assets – that could serve to prolong the cap crunch.

    It has a bearing because many of the same principles have been there throughout, referred to collectively as ‘the culture’ by Burgers or the OBC by those of us in the know.

    Their stain/input doesn’t get magically washed away just because you wish it so.

  153. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: See, that’s your problem right there.If you tried being whiskey- rather than tea – you’d find this blog much more receptive.

    Well, considering 6 months of residential rehab, at two separate facilities, back in 2012, I’m thinking that is a poor idea!

  154. Andy Dufresne says:

    Bank Shot:
    What happened to Klefbom?

    Did he sleep on a pea or something?

    LOL….That is hilarious…..Well played.

  155. Andy Dufresne says:

    OriginalPouzar: I will analyze current management’s decisions based on the current situation and the path forward without regard to the last 12 years.

    And you are good at it. Very good in fact.

  156. Andy Dufresne says:

    London Jon: So… ‘Dont try to predict the direction of the market’

    But…do sell down risk when the markets are ‘nearing highs’ and then buy back (growth stock) risk when the markets are about to rebound.

    So…in summary don’t try to time the market, just sell equities when markets are about to drop and buy them back at a low valuation when they’re about to go back up again.

    Why do I never think about doing this

    Markets trade in ranges, 30 day moving average, 200 day moving average etc. If you are buying incrementally on the way up and and are willing to not be greedy and stop buying well before the herd and conversly take advantage of herds emotions ‘Fear” as markets are on the way down, you can do very well comparatively speaking (modestly well in reality).

    Am I timing the markets, perhaps. But Im not predicting them. Im reacting to what they do in a strucutred way. It takes discipline. It has elements of contrarian investing. In broad terms wehn markets are near the top of of their current range you want to be lets say 80% divested of equities. When markets are near the low end of their trading range you want to be lets say 70% invested. IT has to be incremental and you’ll know when you’ve got the balance right high or low, if you are not hoping for the markets to move in one direction or the other.

    This all means that you pay a price for said incrementalism (and for never being fully invested in markets), You never get the big (short term) returns top performers/risk takers get as markets reach new highs. And you will still suffer when markets crash. But so does everyone. And markets always recover so patience and discipline is the rule of the day on extreme events/black swans.

    To draw an analogy, if you live in Canada and invest in a US Mutual Fund in Cnd Dollars. Your profit/loss comes from two things ( fees and taxes aside). It comes from the value of the Equiteis on any given day and the movement of the Cnd dollar relative to the US dollar. The CND dollar trades in a range. If at the time you are buying the CDN dollar is nearer the lower end of its range make your purchase in the US Index Fund Currency Nuetral. It will appreciate if stocks rise and will not be hurt if the value of CDN dollar rises. Conversely, if the CND dollar is nearer the high end of its trading range make yor purchace in straight US Index Fund, your investment appreciates if US Markets rise AND if CDN dollar weakens. You are not so much predicting what the CND dollar will do as you are using what it has done as additional leverage in your favour. Neither of these strategies is precise and with the imprescision comes a dillusion of your returns. But the dillusion is a way of balancing out risk and creates a more even balanced return overtime and the ability to sleep well at night. I am not predicting what the CDN dollar will do just taking advantage of where it is pegged at any given moment in time, If you want to call that “timing” have at it. But I think you are mistaken

    If you are willing/satisfied with making less than the top performers (ie not be greedy) and you have the discipline to be incremental and maintain the proper balance as markets rise and fall you can profit from the irrational fear that grips markets seemingly on a quarterly basis over that past several years.

    I suppose it all depends on what you deem to be acceptable return and the quality of your Investment Broker/Advisor if you choose to go that route.

    Over the past 7 years or so (given my age and financial standing) I am satisfied with returns in the 4 to 6% range. Its almost more wealth presevation than growth. And yes everybody knows “a guy” whose making double digit returns….I say good for him…..but for every 10 guys claiming that, at least 5 of them are full crap and probably in the red. (Im not talking about the rich / ultra rich….they swim in a different pool…they have investment options that I/we do not)

  157. London Jon says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – The disciplined way of doing this is rebalancing: it’s not timing the market.Determine your risk profile, and that is the anchor.So if you have a 70% equity weighting, you ought to at least quarterly, make sure that you remain at 70%

    – This isn’t timing the market: rather if your equities go up and are 75%: thats your discipline to trim and get back to 70.Conversely, the market tanks and your equities fall to 65%: you buy.Sure your never hitting tops and bottoms, but asset allocation like this will increase the value of your portfolio over time, much more than simply buy and hold.

    – And I disagree with buying market ETF’s: unless you want to “be the market”, which in Canada is almost entirely comprised of 4 sectors: Oil and Gas/Natural resources, Pipelines, Banks and REITS: so commodity leverage and interest rate sensitive sectors only: that’s not the long-term return profile, diversity, cyclical and volatility that a long-term investor should seek IMO

    Good strategy…rebalancing is a simple and effective way of keeping your long term asset allocation where you want it to be.

    Staying invested through the cycle and not trying to time or beat the market is also the best strategy for most people. For example studies have shown layperson women to be better investors than layperson men. We think we are smarter than most people so we try and beat the market. They approach things more humbly and the lack of frictional costs means their long term returns are better.

    Most people should also be globally invested. So, choose the right, global, asset allocation for you, rebalance it quarterly, hold through the cycle and review the asset allocation once a year.

    I joked about Andy’s ‘but low sell high’ strategy, but I do agree with using ETFs. You can build out a portfolio now at around 30bps and avoiding the drag of fees and the friction of trading costs and tax makes a big difference in the long term.

    All of the above isn’t great for my industry, but that’s how I invest and how I’d invest my parents money for them if they had any!

  158. London Jon says:

    Andy Dufresne: Markets trade in ranges, 30 day moving average, 200 day moving average etc. If you are buying incrementally on the way up and and are willing to not be greedy and stop buying well before the herd and conversly take advantage of herds emotions ‘Fear” as markets are on the way down, you can do very well comparatively speaking (modestly well in reality).

    Am I timing the markets, perhaps. But Im not predicting them. Im reacting to what they do in a strucutred way. It takes discipline. It has elements of contrarian investing. In broad terms wehn markets are near the top of of their current range you want to be lets say 80% divested of equities. When markets are near the low end of their trading range you want to be lets say 70% invested. IT has to be incremental and you’ll know when you’ve got the balance right high or low, if you are not hoping for the markets to move in one direction or the other.

    This all means that you pay a price for said incrementalism (and for never being fully invested in markets), You never get the big(short term) returns top performers/risk takers get as markets reach new highs. And you will still suffer when markets crash. But so does everyone. And markets always recover so patience and discipline is the rule of the day on extreme events/black swans.

    To draw an analogy, if you live in Canada and invest in a US Mutual Fund in Cnd Dollars. Your profit/loss comes from two things ( fees and taxes aside). It comes from the value of the Equiteis on any given day and the movement of the Cnd dollar relative to the US dollar. The CND dollar trades in a range. If at the time you are buying the CDN dollar is nearer the lower end of its range make your purchase in the US Index Fund Currency Nuetral. It will appreciate if stocks rise and will not be hurt if the value of CDN dollar rises. Conversely, if the CND dollar is nearer the high end of its trading range make yor purchace in straight US Index Fund, your investment appreciates if US Markets rise AND if CDN dollar weakens. You are not so much predicting what the CND dollar will do as you are using what it has done as additional leverage in your favour.Neither of these strategies is precise and with the imprescision comes a dillusion of your returns. But the dillusion is a way of balancing out risk and creates a more even balanced return overtime and the ability to sleep well at night. I am not predicting what the CDN dollar will do just taking advantage of where it is pegged at any given moment in time, If you want to call that “timing” have at it. But I think you are mistaken

    If you are willing/satisfied with making less than the top performers (ie not be greedy) and you have the discipline to be incremental and maintain the proper balance as markets rise and fall you can profit from the irrational fear that grips markets seemingly on a quarterly basis over that past several years.

    I suppose it all depends on what you deem to be acceptable return and the quality of your Investment Broker/Advisor if you choose to go that route.

    Over the past 7 years or so (given my age and financial standing) I am satisfied with returns in the 4 to 6% range. Its almost more wealth presevation than growth. And yes everybody knows “a guy” whose making double digit returns….I say good for him…..but for every 10 guys claiming that, at least 5 of them are full crap and probably in the red. (Im not talking about the rich / ultra rich….they swim in a different pool…they have investment options that I/we do not)

    That strategy certainly has merit and may well squeeze out a bit more performance, but I suspect (and studies show) that if 10000 people did the incremental moves bit and 10000 people just broadly kept their asset allocation through the cycle then:

    – average performance would be almost exactly the same
    – the incremental group would have more costs, fees and taxes on average
    – the hold the allocation group would be neutral or better off on a net basis and they also save a lot of time by not constantly watching and making small moves based on the markets

    It’s a different world to when I started 22 years ago in London, but that’s what I believe works best now. You could beat the market 10 years ago, but it isn’t worth trying now!

    Focus on other things now. Keep your mortgage rate as low as possible, make sure your kids appreciate money and are motivated to do something with their lives. Simplify finances, get your time back and enjoy life!

  159. London Jon says:

    Andy Dufresne: Markets trade in ranges, 30 day moving average, 200 day moving average etc. If you are buying incrementally on the way up and and are willing to not be greedy and stop buying well before the herd and conversly take advantage of herds emotions ‘Fear” as markets are on the way down, you can do very well comparatively speaking (modestly well in reality).

    Am I timing the markets, perhaps. But Im not predicting them. Im reacting to what they do in a strucutred way. It takes discipline. It has elements of contrarian investing. In broad terms wehn markets are near the top of of their current range you want to be lets say 80% divested of equities. When markets are near the low end of their trading range you want to be lets say 70% invested. IT has to be incremental and you’ll know when you’ve got the balance right high or low, if you are not hoping for the markets to move in one direction or the other.

    This all means that you pay a price for said incrementalism (and for never being fully invested in markets), You never get the big(short term) returns top performers/risk takers get as markets reach new highs. And you will still suffer when markets crash. But so does everyone. And markets always recover so patience and discipline is the rule of the day on extreme events/black swans.

    To draw an analogy, if you live in Canada and invest in a US Mutual Fund in Cnd Dollars. Your profit/loss comes from two things ( fees and taxes aside). It comes from the value of the Equiteis on any given day and the movement of the Cnd dollar relative to the US dollar. The CND dollar trades in a range. If at the time you are buying the CDN dollar is nearer the lower end of its range make your purchase in the US Index Fund Currency Nuetral. It will appreciate if stocks rise and will not be hurt if the value of CDN dollar rises. Conversely, if the CND dollar is nearer the high end of its trading range make yor purchace in straight US Index Fund, your investment appreciates if US Markets rise AND if CDN dollar weakens. You are not so much predicting what the CND dollar will do as you are using what it has done as additional leverage in your favour.Neither of these strategies is precise and with the imprescision comes a dillusion of your returns. But the dillusion is a way of balancing out risk and creates a more even balanced return overtime and the ability to sleep well at night. I am not predicting what the CDN dollar will do just taking advantage of where it is pegged at any given moment in time, If you want to call that “timing” have at it. But I think you are mistaken

    If you are willing/satisfied with making less than the top performers (ie not be greedy) and you have the discipline to be incremental and maintain the proper balance as markets rise and fall you can profit from the irrational fear that grips markets seemingly on a quarterly basis over that past several years.

    I suppose it all depends on what you deem to be acceptable return and the quality of your Investment Broker/Advisor if you choose to go that route.

    Over the past 7 years or so (given my age and financial standing) I am satisfied with returns in the 4 to 6% range. Its almost more wealth presevation than growth. And yes everybody knows “a guy” whose making double digit returns….I say good for him…..but for every 10 guys claiming that, at least 5 of them are full crap and probably in the red. (Im not talking about the rich / ultra rich….they swim in a different pool…they have investment options that I/we do not)

    Also, from sounds of your circumstances 4-6% with low volatility is a great outcome.

    Wealth preservation/lowish risk has been the hardest place to be with interest rates so low and bonds constantly looking at risk of the rate cycle being normalised.

    You’re obviously getting lots of things right!

  160. Andy Dufresne says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – The disciplined way of doing this is rebalancing: it’s not timing the market.Determine your risk profile, and that is the anchor.So if you have a 70% equity weighting, you ought to at least quarterly, make sure that you remain at 70%

    – This isn’t timing the market: rather if your equities go up and are 75%: thats your discipline to trim and get back to 70.Conversely, the market tanks and your equities fall to 65%: you buy.Sure your never hitting tops and bottoms, but asset allocation like this will increase the value of your portfolio over time, much more than simply buy and hold.

    – And I disagree with buying market ETF’s: unless you want to “be the market”, which in Canada is almost entirely comprised of 4 sectors: Oil and Gas/Natural resources, Pipelines, Banks and REITS: so commodity leverage and interest rate sensitive sectors only: that’s not the long-term return profile, diversity, cyclical and volatility that a long-term investor should seek IMO

    Agree with Kinger here. What he says is a big part of what Im trying to convey. On specific investments I cant say for certain whats best for any given individual. But my investment strategy counts on small things to provide a return. Small MER, hence Index Funds. Choosing a geographic preference. For me 80 (or more )US markets in the last 7 years. Incorporating Currency fluctuations.
    My whole pogram is Macro and Technical Analysis based and mildly Contrarian.

    Did well for over a decade in High Yeild Bond Funds (have been out now for 2 or 3 years for obvious reasons) Now use Short Term Bond Funds to park cash. Been in US markets exclusively for the past 7 years. What limited diversification I have is achieved through fixed income and Index funds S&P 500. Not saying whats right or wrong, but global diversification, TSX, European Equites, Emerging Markets etc all tended to dillute my overall returns. Diversifcation has its rewards and its costs.

    There are myriad investment tools that i have no exposure to because I know so little about them. For me its about controlling my own investments and its a hobby as well. My process is simple relatively speaking. It offers me some measure of conrol and brings me some joy. I do what I know, I avoid what I dont know. If you can afford a top level Investment Advisor you should probably do it. Im having fun and I have the time for it because i retired early….very early…..oh yeah….did I mention I value time more than I value money.

    Its like the old saying….”Moneys Not Important!……Unless you dont have any……in which case its very important!”

  161. Andy Dufresne says:

    London Jon: That strategy certainly has merit and may well squeeze out a bit more performance, but I suspect (and studies show) that if 10000 people did the incremental moves bit and 10000 people just broadly kept their asset allocation through the cycle then:

    – average performance would be almost exactly the same
    – the incremental group would have more costs, fees and taxes on average
    – the hold the allocation group would be neutral or better off on a net basis and they also save a lot of time by not constantly watching and making small moves based on the markets

    It’s a different world to when I started 22 years ago in London, but that’s what I believe works best now. You could beat the market 10 years ago, but it isn’t worth trying now!

    Focus on other things now. Keep your mortgage rate as low as possible, make sure your kids appreciate money and are motivated to do something with their lives. Simplify finances, get your time back and enjoy life!

    100% agree with everything you say here.

    Its a very personal thing. I’m almost certainly in a small niche that applies to a very small percentage of people.

    If you can afford a top notch investment firm / advisor, you should almost certainly do so.

  162. Andy Dufresne says:

    London Jon: Also, from sounds of your circumstances 4-6% with low volatility is a great outcome.

    Wealth preservation/lowish risk has been the hardest place to be with interest rates so low and bonds constantly looking at risk of the rate cycle being normalised.

    You’re obviously getting lots of things right!

    Thank You Jon. Not sure why I posted all this. Nice to hear your feedback.
    I am quite certain you are more knowledgable about the world of investing than I am. I mean that sincerely. My process is particular to my circumstances. I probably shouldnt be recommending it to anyone. I guess when something works for you, you want to share it with others.

  163. Andy Dufresne says:

    London Jon: That strategy certainly has merit and may well squeeze out a bit more performance, but I suspect (and studies show) that if 10000 people did the incremental moves bit and 10000 people just broadly kept their asset allocation through the cycle then:

    – average performance would be almost exactly the same
    – the incremental group would have more costs, fees and taxes on average
    – the hold the allocation group would be neutral or better off on a net basis and they also save a lot of time by not constantly watching and making small moves based on the markets

    It’s a different world to when I started 22 years ago in London, but that’s what I believe works best now. You could beat the market 10 years ago, but it isn’t worth trying now!

    Focus on other things now. Keep your mortgage rate as low as possible, make sure your kids appreciate money and are motivated to do something with their lives. Simplify finances, get your time back and enjoy life!

    Agree with all of this. Your posts have “the ring of truth”.

    And love the last paragraph. Thank You

    Heres another ring of truth. I’ve done ok over the years. But if I had a do-over and could go back 35 years, I would do precisely what Jon is recommending here. Perhaps some of you have. I applaud you.

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