That’s Entertainment

Yesterday the Edmonton Oilers played the team’s most satisfying game of the year. No passengers, outstanding performances up and down the lineup, and an easy win against a good hockey team expected to push into the playoffs. Ken Hitchcock was clearly pleased, and he is absolutely looking for a run. Hitch: “We have the most home games of anybody when we come back, which is substantial. We’re five points out and we’re in a really good spot mentally.”

THE ATHLETIC

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group. Outstanding offer is here.

  • New Lowetide: The career destination for Oilers phenom Jesse Puljujarvi remains unknown.
  • New Jonathan Willis: Learning from a flawed argument I made about Leon Draisaitl in 2016.
  • Black Dog Pat: How the Oilers can emerge from the Bob Pulford-like era they’re stuck in.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers given harsh lesson by Leafs as playoff hopes on life support.
  • Lowetide: The Oilers’ deadline decisions inform what may come in spring and summer
  • Jonathan Willis: From Mikko Koskinen to Bakersfield, the next two months will reveal a lot about the Oilers
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: After bringing in Sam Gagner and shipping out Cam Talbot, Oilers stand pat on deadline day.
  • Jonathan Willis: Jesse Puljujarvi needs a fresh start, but there’s no reason it can’t be in Edmonton
  • Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers and the OHL.
  • Lowetide: Are the 2018-19 Bakersfield Condors the best Edmonton Oilers affiliate ever?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘One of the best hockey games ever’: An oral history of the 2014 women’s Olympic gold-medal game.
  • Lowetide: How can the Oilers successfully sell the new regime to a fan base that is openly angry?
  • Jonathan Willis: Edmonton’s trade for Sam Gagner is a gamble well worth making.
  • Jonathan Willis: Inside the success of the Bakersfield Condors, and what it means for Edmonton
  • Lowetide: The Oilers sure have a lot of problems, but there is a simple solution.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Keith Gretzky on the Oilers trade deadline plan, Andrej Sekera’s return and Jesse Puljujarvi’s season
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ potential roster upheaval might set a record for summer activity
  • Lowetide: It’s time for Oilers owner Daryl Katz to stand and deliver a winning organization.
  • Jonathan Willis: An Oilers blueprint for the 2019 NHL free agency period
  • Lowetide: Edmonton’s 2019 entry draft plans may change with new GM but needs are clear
  • Lowetide: Complete Oilers top 20 prospects, Winter 2018

OILERS AFTER 65

  • Oilers in 2015: 24-34-7, 55 points; goal differential -32
  • Oilers in 2016: 35-22-8, 78 points; goal differential +13
  • Oilers in 2017: 27-34-4, 58 points; goal differential -38
  • Oilers in 2018: 28-30-7, 63 points; goal differential -22

Edmonton is 4-1-2 in its last seven games, a duplication in the next seven games could get this team within four points of a playoff position with 10 games left in the campaign. Insane. Miles to go, but the small chance remains.

OILERS IN MARCH

  • Oilers in March 2016: 1-0-0, two points; goal differential +1
  • Oilers in March 2017: 1-0-0, two points; goal differential +1
  • Oilers in March 2018: 0-1-0, zero points; goal differential -2
  • Oilers in March 2019: 1-0-0, two points; goal differential +4

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM MARCH

  • On the road to: Columbus, Buffalo (Expected 0-1-1) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • At home to: Vancouver, Toronto, NY Rangers, Minnesota (Expected 2-1-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: Arizona, Vegas, St. Louis (Expected: 0-2-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Columbus, Ottawa, Los Angeles, Dallas, Anaheim (Expected: 3-1-1) (Actual)
  • Overall expected result: 5-5-4, 14 points in 14 games
  • Current results: 1-0-0, two points in one game

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

  • Sekera-Benning were 5-6 in 12:49, 5-2 shots, no goals and 2-1 HDSC. I like this pairing very much, keep wondering when Hitch will give them some more of the Nurse-Russell minutes. Faced Dzingel-Duchene-Bjorkstrand, going 4-4 in 6:36. Solid.
  • Klefbom-Larsson went 17-24 in 20:27, a massive amount of icetime. Were 10-13 shots, 1-0 goals and 2-2 HDSC. Were 12-6 in 8:19 against Panarin-Dubois-Atkinson, but 5-10 in 5:28 against Foligno-Jenner-Anderson. Jackets have depth.
  • Nurse-Russell were 8-20 in 17:37, 5-10 shots, 2-0 goals and 2-0 HDSC. Nurse had a couple of splendid backchecks on 10-bell chances, textbook defending without taking a penalty. Impressive. Were 2-5 in 5:39 against Dzingel-Duchene-Bjorkstrand.
  • McDavid played most with the Sekera pair (9:40), followed by Nurse pair (six minutes) and then Klef duo (4:22).
  • Mikko Koskinen stopped all 30 shots, now owns a .911 save percentage.
  • NaturalStatTrick and NHL.com.

FORWARDS, LAST NIGHT

  • Draisaitl-McDavid-Kassian were 11-11 in 15:42, 6-7 shots, 1-0 goals and 3-1 HDSC. 29-97 basically scored with four different wingers in tow, freaky how it all turned out. Leon was a force, from his cherry passes to the goal, and then his breakway shorthanded where he basically skated past everyone. McDavid’s creativity was on display all day, just a ridiculous talent.
  • Lucic-Nuge-Chiasson went 9-9 in 12:12, 6-4 shots, no goals and 0-3 HDSC. You’d like a little more skill on this line, but they sawed off the opposition and CBJ is a good team.
  • Rieder-Cave-Currie were 5-11 in 8:30, 3-6 shots no goals or HDSC. Two guys who are just underway in the NHL form a No. 3 line on the day and deliver reasonable results (remember, score effects would have been in play for basically half the game).
  • Gagner-Brodziak-Rattie went 1-7 in 5:52, 1-4 shots, no goals or HDSC. Again, you’d like better offense. Brodziak was 5-6 in the dot.

THE SHIFT

  • Darryl Sutter: “The big thing in today’s game is you have to be able forecheck and backcheck, and you have to have the puck. You can’t give the puck up. We don’t play in our zone, so there’s not much defending.  I’ve coached in three decades now and this stuff where they said Marian had to play in Jacques’s system is a bunch of bull-crap. The game’s changed. They think there’s defending in today’s game. Nah, it’s how much you have the puck. Teams that play around in their own zone think they’re defending but they’re generally getting scored on or taking face-offs and they need a goalie to stand on his head if that’s the way they play.”

“The Shift” included a turnover at the CBJ blueline, a downed soldier (Kassian) that allowed the eventual goal scorer on the ice, and passing that ranged from deft to brilliant. Over 90 seconds according to my friend Bruce McCurdy, concluding with two of the best passes you’re ever going to see plus a nice finish by Josh Currie.

MIKKO KOSKINEN

Mikko Koskinen showing up in a positive place. I’m not defending the contract but he has had success in the NHL this season. He has a .926 save percentage 5-on-5 in his last 10 games.

CONDORS

Won again last night, the train keeps rolling. I’ll have an article up today at The Athletic about the best goal-scoring Condors and which of the current forwards may eventually find NHL work on a regular basis.

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

171 Responses to "That’s Entertainment"

  1. Jethro Tull says:

    https://youtu.be/m-H0uIH5HHQ

    I wish Darryl followed his musings through.

  2. dustrock says:

    Days of speed and slow time Mondays
    Pissing down with snow on a boring Sunday
    Watching the highlights and not eating your tea
    A freezing cold flat and damp on the walls

    That’s entertainment

  3. Maoriduvpoojt says:

    Jethro Tull:
    https://youtu.be/m-H0uIH5HHQ

    I wish Darryl followed his musings through.

    Is it just me, or does the lead singer bear more than a passing resemblance to Smytty in some of the shots?

  4. Melman says:

    4-1-2 since Rej has come back. It’s as if actual NHL defenseman are conducive to winning.

  5. OriginalPouzar says:

    That was sure fun yesterday. Let’s do it again tomorrow night.

  6. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Mikko Koskinen showing up in a positive place. I’m not defending the contract but he has had success in the NHL this season. He has a .926 save percentage 5-on-5 in his last 10 games.

    I was going to write something on him using GSAA/100 (in your comments section here, not at my dusty blog)

    If this is Koskinen then the contract is fine.

    We don’t know yet though.

    Biggest negative was all the unknowns, but the goalies available this summer are either really expensive or meh.

    Might work out for EDM.

  7. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Eastern Conference Playoff Standings using Points Percentage shown as game over/under fake Bettman .500

    Atlantic
    TBY 38
    BOS 22
    TOR 19

    Metropolitan
    NYI 17
    WSH 16
    CAR 13

    Wildcard
    PIT 12
    CBJ 11

    Out of playoffs
    MTL 11
    PHI 5
    BUF 3
    FLA 3
    NYR 0
    NJD -8
    DET -10
    OTT -16

    Relevant games today:

    WPG at CBJ (CBJ -125)

  8. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Western Conference Playoff Standings using Points Percentage shown as game over/under fake Bettman .500

    Pacific
    CGY 24
    SJS 19
    VGK 9

    Central
    WPG 16
    NSH 12
    STL 9

    Wildcard
    DAL 6
    MIN 5

    Out of playoffs
    ARI 4
    COL 3
    CHI -2
    EDM -2
    VAN -2
    ANA -8
    LAK -9

    CHI/EDM/VAN tie broken with ROW

    Relevant games today:

    COL at ANA (COL -130)
    NSH at MIN (NSH -140)

  9. Jethro Tull says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Mikko Koskinen showing up in a positive place. I’m not defending the contract but he has had success in the NHL this season. He has a .926 save percentage 5-on-5 in his last 10 games.

    I was going to write something on him using GSAA/100 (in your comments section here, not at my dusty blog)

    If this is Koskinen then the contract is fine.

    We don’t know yet though.

    Biggest negative was all the unknowns, but the goalies available this summer are either really expensive or meh.

    Might work out for EDM.

    Seems they have a good symbiosis. Koski needs the HDSCs limited against him and for his part, he’s solid on the ones that get through. Should please Hitch. Olde timey keepe ye shott to the outside.

  10. smellyglove says:

    Two Oilers in the top eight for NHL points. Never thought I’d see the day.

    Conceivably, the team will finish comfortably outside of the playoffs with three centres accruing 120, 100, and 70 points, respectively. Bananas!

    It’s easy to be doom and gloom, and hell that’s a cottage industry for fans of this team, and one has little confidence in the executive group instilling a modern, analytics-informed GM–still. Coming into the third rebuild in a decade, the new GM has those centres and a solid D-corps with reinforcements coming. There are worse starting positions to contend with for sure.

  11. HugThePost says:

    IF (big if) they manage to squeak into the playoffs this spring, will Katz and upper management have the self awareness and humility to objectively assess the org and realize they made the playoffs in spite of themselves and that the org still needs to modernize how they operate in several facets that we’ve discussed to death here?

  12. Maoriduvpoojt says:

    A couple of thoughts from the game.

    I caught the beginning of TB vs CBJ last week or 2 weeks ago. The BJ’s were very dominant, but TB would counter-attack and seemed to score at will. The 2 goals I saw were pure skill & Vasilevskiy was unconscious. TB is an unstoppable force right now. I know CBJ came back later in the game, but I didn’t watch that part. TB will be unchallenged for the Stanley, unless they run up against a team with a goalie like 06 Rollie and forward like Pisani (yup I am thinking of when the Oil destroyed the Detroit juggernaut on that run). Speaking of which, can Koski & Currie be those guys?

    Can this team catch lightning in a bottle and go 13-4 in their last games of the season? If so, this org has as much organizational depth than they have probably ever had to be able to draw from if by some miracle they go on a deep play-off run. Yup, I am getting waaaay too far ahead of myself. The Kool-Aid tastes great! Just saying it makes it pretty damn exciting for Oil Country (optimism,…..whaaaat?)

    Is there any other team that is as much of a rollercoaster ride as this one?

  13. Glovjuice says:

    HugThePost:
    IF (big if) they manage to squeak into the playoffs this spring, will Katz and upper management have the self awareness and humility to objectively assess the org and realize they made the playoffs in spite of themselves and that the org still needs to modernize how they operate in several facets that we’ve discussed to death here?

    No

  14. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Here’s every NHL goalie who has played 500 minutes this year (all situations) and has a positive GSAA/100 using Evolvinghockey.com’s Goals Saved Above Average metric for all situations and expressing it as “Goals Saved Above Average per 100 shots”

    This helps balance the “the goalie is better/worse due to the Dcorps” argument.

    Doesn’t solve that argument, but its the best we have right now.

    1 JORDAN.BINNINGTON 2.67
    2 ROBIN.LEHNER 2.21
    3 ANDREI.VASILEVSKIY 2.20
    4 MACKENZIE.BLACKWOOD 2.18
    5 LAURENT.BROSSOIT 1.95
    6 THOMAS.GREISS 1.89
    7 BEN.BISHOP 1.77
    8 JACK.CAMPBELL 1.72
    9 RYAN.MILLER 1.61
    10 JAROSLAV.HALAK 1.56
    11 FREDERIK.ANDERSEN 1.43
    12 CURTIS.MCELHINNEY 1.39
    13 ANTON.KHUDOBIN 1.37
    14 TUUKKA.RASK 1.32
    15 DARCY.KUEMPER 0.92
    16 BRIAN.ELLIOTT 0.91
    17 CARTER.HART 0.81
    18 CAREY.PRICE 0.76
    19 JUUSE.SAROS 0.71
    20 JOHN.GIBSON 0.64
    21 PEKKA.RINNE 0.54
    22 CASEY.DESMITH 0.50
    23 JACOB.MARKSTROM 0.46
    24 MATT.MURRAY 0.44
    25 DAVID.RITTICH 0.42
    26 DEVAN.DUBNYK 0.36
    27 SEMYON.VARLAMOV 0.22
    28 MIKKO.KOSKINEN 0.17
    29 CARTER.HUTTON 0.15
    30 CONNOR.HELLEBUYCK 0.08
    31 MARC-ANDRE.FLEURY 0.07
    32 LINUS.ULLMARK 0.02

    Greiss and Halak just keep showing up on this list year after year regardless of who they play for.

    UFAs on this list are:

    Lehner – NYI probably extends him unless they chase Bob
    Miller – won’t move out of California apparently, back up TOI only at this point in his career
    McElhinney – CAR probably extends him
    Elliott – was hoping he came back for Talbot so EDM could test drive him at back up. Can they get him for $2MM-ish?
    Varlamov – probably looking for north of $7MM. Injury history is too great
    Koskinen – signed $4.5MM x 3

    To do this properly I should run 3 years and weight 16/17 at 20%, 17/18 at 30% and 18/19 at 50%.

    Maybe I will if I get time.

  15. Maoriduvpoojt says:

    Sorry thoughts got side-tracked, CBJ didn’t seem to put up much resistance aka interference, compared to many of the teams they have been playing against. Is this a by-product of the speed of their transitions or the structure of the BJ’s due to an over confident coach. On paper their D-depth looks thin to me.

    Josh Anderson is a big boy who can flat-out fly, he would look amazing on Connor’s RW.

  16. HugThePost says:

    Glovjuice: No

    Yeah I agree. If they get in somehow, the red wine will continue to flow down 104th and we will get more of the same.

    The fans deserve the playoffs, but the org does not.

  17. jp says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Mikko Koskinen showing up in a positive place. I’m not defending the contract but he has had success in the NHL this season. He has a .926 save percentage 5-on-5 in his last 10 games.

    I was going to write something on him using GSAA/100 (in your comments section here, not at my dusty blog)

    If this is Koskinen then the contract is fine.

    We don’t know yet though.

    Biggest negative was all the unknowns, but the goalies available this summer are either really expensive or meh.

    Might work out for EDM.

    Exactly, he’s been average to slightly above average thus far. And the contract is average to slightly cheaper than average (4.5M would be 20th among goalies this season).

    As you say, if this is who Koskinen is, there’s no issue with the contract. The sample size (and the volatility in it) mean this could well be a value contract. Or a facepalm. Nice to see more positive arrows though.

  18. Jethro Tull says:

    HugThePost: Yeah I agree.If they get in somehow, the red wine will continue to flow down 104th and we will get more of the same.

    Some of the worst words ever used to justify some of the most horrendous acts:

    “I was only following orders.”

  19. Professor Q says:

    HugThePost: Yeah I agree.If they get in somehow, the red wine will continue to flow down 104th and we will get more of the same.

    I don’t know about that. I know people take things with a salt these days, but both Bob and Keith have spoken publicly how they need to exercise more patience in all areas, and how the 2016 playoff run was perhaps a case of overextending and overachieving that caused them to become complacent.

    So they at least recognize that they have to watch that, and that they still have a lot of work to do despite whatever the present leads them to. I do think they’ll be wary of playoff success this year if it occurs, based on their awareness of post-2016, and will try to improve in the offseason regardless.

    Obviously one scenario brings a highly skilled pick into the fold, while the other has a lower chance of that happening.

  20. jp says:

    HugThePost: Yeah I agree.If they get in somehow, the red wine will continue to flow down 104th and we will get more of the same.

    There will hopefully be incremental changes, but even if they go 2-14-1 down the stretch I’m not optimistic we’ll see a lot of modernization.

  21. HugThePost says:

    Professor Q: I don’t know about that. I know people take things with a salt these days, but both Bob and Keith have spoken publicly how they need to exercise more patience in all areas, and how the 2016 playoff run was perhaps a case of overextending and overachieving that caused them to become complacent.

    So they at least recognize that they have to watch that, and that they still have a lot of work to do despite whatever the present leads them to. I do think they’ll be wary of playoff success this year if it occurs, based on their awareness of post-2016,and will try to improve in the offseason regardless.

    Obviously one scenario brings a highly skilled pick into the fold, while the other has a lower chance of that happening.

    I really hope so. I’ve become like many others very jaded and cynical towards the org and gave up my season’s tickets a few years ago when I got fed up.

    At this point, they can say all they want, but until I see their actions reflecting true changes in their ways, my opinion of them won’t change.

    It is no small coincidence that Bobby Nicks is publicly making these comments about the org changing their approach to things at a time when fan anger and apathy are cresting and the org is trying to get season ticket and luxury box renewals.

  22. nelson88 says:

    smellyglove,

    Agreed. Going to Vegas later in the month and with decent odds will look to place a bet on the oilers reaching the finals next year.

    The negative piling on has gotten to epic proportions. They have the tough pieces and the core. IF (big leap of faith I realize) they could ever remove the panic from their game; management and coaching that is the players just follow along, they will be fine.

  23. jp says:

    Benning keeps showing up at the top of those D summary boxes in LTs posts. Which made me think of something I looked at a while back.

    The Oilers +/- leaders over the last 3 seasons:

    McDavid 48
    Benning 23
    Maroon 18
    Larsson 15
    Nurse 5
    (Russell 1)
    (Sekera 0)
    (Klefbom -7)

    Pretty impressive considering all the grief Benning gets from some corners.

  24. Oilman99 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Mikko Koskinen showing up in a positive place. I’m not defending the contract but he has had success in the NHL this season. He has a .926 save percentage 5-on-5 in his last 10 games.

    I was going to write something on him using GSAA/100 (in your comments section here, not at my dusty blog)

    If this is Koskinen then the contract is fine.

    We don’t know yet though.

    Biggest negative was all the unknowns, but the goalies available this summer are either really expensive or meh.

    Might work out for EDM.

    One day he looks like a world beater, and the next he cant stop a beach ball, this is still a scary situation until he proves he can be more consistent than he has shown this season. With the contract they gave him,there isn’t any cap room to bring in a proven backup.

  25. leadfarmer says:

    We pretty much have to win out the rest of the year to have a shot but we definitely can spoil some other teams hopes. I don’t think Wild will make it. The coyotes are surging and probably overtake Dallas in the end. So we have to catch up to Dallas

  26. Oilman99 says:

    jp:
    Benning keeps showing up at the top of those D summary boxes in LTs posts. Which made me think of something I looked at a while back.

    The Oilers +/- leaders over the last 3 seasons:

    McDavid 48
    Benning 23
    Maroon 18
    Larsson 15
    Nurse 5
    (Russell 1)
    (Sekera 0)
    (Klefbom -7)

    Pretty impressive considering all the grief Benning gets from some corners.

    Benning and Russell are the favourite whipping boys every time things don’t go right ever since Caggiula and Strome were pushed out of town.

  27. jp says:

    Oilman99: One day he looks like a world beater, and the next he cant stop a beach ball, this is still a scary situation until he proves he can be more consistent than he has shown this season. With the contract they gave him,there isn’t any cap room to bring in a proven backup.

    The median team spent 6.7M on their goalies this season (NJD, 16th/31 teams). So the Oilers could spend 2-2.5M on a backup and remain thoroughly average in goalie spending. The Oilers have a cap crunch to be sure, but Koskinsn’s contract (4.5M would be 20th among goalies this season) isn’t really the reason.

    Edit: Agreed his inconsistency this season is scary when projecting forward. He’s being paid like a low end starter though, so maybe having the uncertainty of Koskinen is better than KNOWING you’re going to get mediocre goaltending for the same price??

  28. SwedishPoster says:

    Leon was pure filth last night. Those missed Connor games might have been a blessing in disguise. It’s like Leon went, yeah I’m this good. I’ve been a fan a long time but as of late, Ottawa walk through game aside, he’s picked it up a notch. Imo he’s outplaying his Anaheim series self.

  29. Jethro Tull says:

    jp:
    Benning keeps showing up at the top of those D summary boxes in LTs posts. Which made me think of something I looked at a while back.

    The Oilers +/- leaders over the last 3 seasons:

    McDavid 48
    Benning 23
    Maroon 18
    Larsson 15
    Nurse 5
    (Russell 1)
    (Sekera 0)
    (Klefbom -7)

    Pretty impressive considering all the grief Benning gets from some corners.

    Oilman99,

    +/- is kind of a meta stat. It requires context. The context of McDavid’s insane +/- is that he’s so good he tilts the ice whenever he’s on. This can be corroborated by other stats.

    With Benning and Russell, you need to look a lot harder. Who are they on the ice with? Against whom? For how long? In what situations.

  30. OmJo says:

    Woodguy v2.0: 5 LAURENT.BROSSOIT 1.95

    Hello darkness,my old friend.

  31. leadfarmer says:

    jp:
    Benning keeps showing up at the top of those D summary boxes in LTs posts. Which made me think of something I looked at a while back.

    The Oilers +/- leaders over the last 3 seasons:

    McDavid 48
    Benning 23
    Maroon 18
    Larsson 15
    Nurse 5
    (Russell 1)
    (Sekera 0)
    (Klefbom -7)

    Pretty impressive considering all the grief Benning gets from some corners.

    Benning is not the issue. So he couldn’t run with the 2nd pairing job. Still a usable defenseman
    The issue with the D is the amount of damage that is caused by Russell being the second pairing D. Nurse’s weekness is passing so pairing him with an even worse passer only compounds the problem. We need to get him someone that can pass. Montour would have been an amazing acquisition and Buffalo has a lot of RHD so maybe for the right price they trade him to us.
    Klef Larsson
    Nurse Montour
    Sekera Benning
    Would make me happy
    You could run with that. And give Bennings spot to Bouchard in a year
    But if for next season the goal is to replace Benning we are doing it wrong.

  32. leadfarmer says:

    OmJo: Hello darkness,my old friend.

    Yet Hellebyuck gets most of the starts.
    Jets fans and Flames fans will be pissed when Hellebyuck and Smith lose a series for them when a better choice was available internally

  33. jp says:

    Jethro Tull: Oilman99,

    +/- is kind of a meta stat. It requires context. The context of McDavid’s insane +/- is that he’s so good he tilts the ice whenever he’s on. This can be corroborated by other stats.

    With Benning and Russell, you need to look a lot harder. Who are they on the ice with? Against whom? For how long? In what situations.

    Without a doubt, but I’m not trying to suggest Benning is the Oilers best Dman based on his +/-.

    Benning has been consistently outscoring in sheltered minutes and has failed to be effective when moved up the lineup.

    But he’s been a material positive contributor in that third pairing role, which is a lot more than some are willing to grant him.

  34. OmJo says:

    leadfarmer: Yet Hellebyuck gets most of the starts.
    Jets fans and Flames fans will be pissed when Hellebyuck and Smith lose a series for them when a better choice was available internally

    In the Jets defense, Hellebuyck is coming off a career year last season, but his numbers this season are average at best. Maybe Brossoit steals his job in the playoffs.

    Not even going to defend the fLames. They have the firepower to overcome below-average goaltending in the regular season but let’s see how they handle post-season hockey.

  35. jp says:

    leadfarmer,

    Agreed on all points.

  36. Glovjuice says:

    Jethro Tull: Oilman99,

    +/- is kind of a meta stat. It requires context. The context of McDavid’s insane +/- is that he’s so good he tilts the ice whenever he’s on. This can be corroborated by other stats.

    With Benning and Russell, you need to look a lot harder. Who are they on the ice with? Against whom? For how long? In what situations.

    The thing with plus minus is that it genrerlly has a built in correction factor to make it even a better stat the most realize in my mind. That is: Posters keep saying “well, Benning plays third pair, so therefore easy competition but he is paid as a third pair. For most players plus/minus accounts for the pay/competition level relation, and, its inherent to the stat. Plus minus really is a much better relative holistic stat than people think.

  37. Bag of Pucks says:

    Oilman99: One day he looks like a world beater, and the next he cant stop a beach ball, this is still a scary situation until he proves he can be more consistent than he has shown this season. With the contract they gave him,there isn’t any cap room to bring in a proven backup.

    It’s definitely strange to see a goalie this far along in his professional career that still need a lot of coaching in his game. Angles can be poor, glovehand anticipation slow, and for Gord’s sake, you’re 6’7” – cover the short side! But all that said, size is the one thing you can’t coach and it serves him well. Reminds me of Dubnyk a lot.

    He may end up being value for money but decent value, not the exceptional value he could’ve been with proper negotiation.

  38. Bag of Pucks says:

    Glovjuice: The thing with plus minus is that it genrerlly has a built in correction factor to make it even a better stat the most realize in my mind. That is:Posters keep saying “well, Benning plays third pair, so therefore easy competition but he is paid as a third pair. For most players plus/minus accounts for the pay/competition level relation, and, its inherent to the stat. Plus minus really is a much better relative holistic stat than people think.

    It’s a good stat over large or lifetime sample sizes. It certainly passed the eye test for Charlie Huddy back in the day.

  39. JimmyV1965 says:

    I’m quite optimistic about the possibility of turning this ship around in a hurry. Like LT said in his radio rant Thursday, we have the most difficult pieces to acquire in McDavid and Drai. The new GM will start with the best one-two punch in the league, a handful of solid other pieces and a farm system that should provide depth.

    Yet I can’t fathom how we make the playoffs this year or even go on a run to make it close. We still can’t score if the big three aren’t directly involved. The opposition only needs to shut down McDavid and Drai and they are almost assured a victory. At this point, I would probably run Currie and Cave on the RNH line. Outside of Chiasson, they are the only two forwards with even a slim hope of scoring. The rest of the forwards are mortal locks not to score so run with the rookies.

  40. jtblack says:

    Maybe its this simple.

    Oscar returns. Sekera Returns. = Winning

  41. Bag of Pucks says:

    Since I was 14, it’s been my habit to play my guitar while watching Oiler games (electric unplugged to make 2 1/2 hours of practice tolerable to the rest of the house). When the team is good, I get distracted and don’t play much. When the team is bad, I get some serious woodshedding done. Needless to say, my playing has really improved over the last dozen years. lol

    I would love love love this team to go on a playoff push run this spring that puts some dust on the strings. It’s high time.

  42. leadfarmer says:

    At the start of the season I was thinking it will take us two years to get this ship headed in the right direction. Hope we get a competent GM to make a few good moves.
    Move Brodziak Russell Gagner to free up cap. Probably stuck with Gagner though unless we take a bad contract back. Canucks could use Russell for a couple years. Add a small sweetener.
    If July 1 Lucic really wants a trade they really need to push to mutually terminate his contract. Someone will sign him. Size is still a thing
    Teams out there are running out of cap space having space to make moves would be huge

  43. Jethro Tull says:

    Glovjuice: The thing with plus minus is that it genrerlly has a built in correction factor to make it even a better stat the most realize in my mind. That is:Posters keep saying “well, Benning plays third pair, so therefore easy competition but he is paid as a third pair. For most players plus/minus accounts for the pay/competition level relation, and, its inherent to the stat. Plus minus really is a much better relative holistic stat than people think.

    What is the correction factor? There have been some fine hockey players on some shitty teams that had horrible +/-. Some of them even played for us.

  44. jp says:

    This will be more fun at the end of the season. Or next year.

    But, since the most recent trade:

    Eberle— 7 0 4 4 +2 11(shots)
    Strome– 7 3 2 5 0 7
    Spooner- 5 0 3 3 +2 10
    Gagner– 8 3 0 3 -2 17

  45. Ray says:

    Terry Jones just made a comment on Twitter that Ralph Kruger would make a good GM, they should actually bring him in as POHO …

    Then still bring in a Hunter or McCrimmon as GM.

    Then all the old boys that need to be can be fired over Skype by the new boss

  46. deardylan says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Since I was 14, it’s been my habit to play my guitar while watching Oiler games (electric unplugged to make 2 1/2 hours of practice tolerable to the rest of the house). When the team is good, I get distracted and don’t play much. When the team is bad, I get some serious woodshedding done. Needless to say, my playing has really improved over the last dozen years. lol

    I would love love love this team to go on a playoff push run this spring that puts some dust on the strings. It’s high time.

    Sounds productive…win or learn! Wonder what other combos we do while watching Oil. Im usually cooking up a meal with drizzled OliveOil when i get back from work late.

    Oilers be hard on the heart…not sure what the average life span in Oil country is…but Olive oil, music optimism, gym, travel might give us a few more seasons if life to enjoy

    The oldest person ever was Frenchwoman Jeanne Calment, who died in 1997 after living a verified 122 years. She credited a diet rich in olive oil for her longevity, and was so fond of the stuff she used it on her skin daily.

  47. Jordan says:

    Ray:
    Terry Jones just made a comment on Twitter that Ralph Kruger would make a good GM, they should actually bring him in as POHO …

    Then still bring in a Hunter or McCrimmon as GM.

    Then all the old boys that need to be can be fired over Skype by the new boss

    I bet you could sell tickets to watch the Ralph fire Craig over skype.

    After all, it is the Oilers ENTERTAINMENT group. Am I right?

  48. Dicky94 says:

    Man I Hope the Oilers can sneak in. Watched the Flames game last night and from what I saw they are easy pickings for a first round upset. Definitely overachieving this year and I’m not just saying that because I’m an Oiler fan.

  49. Jethro Tull says:

    Jordan: I bet you could sell tickets to watch the Ralph fire Craig over skype.

    After all, it is the Oilers ENTERTAINMENT group.Am I right?

    Are you not entertained?

  50. OmJo says:

    Ralph Krueger as GM.
    Todd Nelson as HC.

    Ha!

  51. Maoriduvpoojt says:

    Ray:
    Terry Jones just made a comment on Twitter that Ralph Kruger would make a good GM, they should actually bring him in as POHO …

    Then still bring in a Hunter or McCrimmon as GM.

    Then all the old boys that need to be can be fired over Skype by the new boss

    +1000

  52. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Jordan,

    You just won today’s thread, that’s hilarious.

  53. Reja says:

    nelson88:
    smellyglove,

    Agreed. Going to Vegas later in the month and with decent odds will look to place a bet on the oilers reaching the finals next year.

    The negative piling on has gotten to epic proportions. They have the tough pieces and the core. IF (big leap of faith I realize) they could ever remove the panic from their game; management and coaching that is the players just follow along,they will be fine.

    Oilers were a playoff team that nobody wanted to face it looks like it wasn’t meant to be.They got into a funk where absolutely nothing went there way wasn’t due to lack of effort. This piling on of a 40-40 man amoung others is more entertainment for some folks then actually watching the games it’s sad.

  54. giddy says:

    Oilman99: Benning and Russell are the favourite whipping boys every time things don’t go right ever since Caggiula and Strome were pushed out of town.

    Benning and Russell have been the whipping boys since the start of last season. The aim is just much more concentrated on them now that Caggiula and Strome are gone.

    It is strange though. I like Benning, I think he brings good value to the 3rd pairing. But woof, sometimes he looks awful, yet his stats, fancy and otherwise, always bring the good news. It’s like a defense version of Pouliot, but with better +/-.

  55. Bulging Twine says:

    I keep hearing of this LT rant. Anyone have a transcript?

  56. bmclav says:

    I agree with all about Benning consistently being a positive contributor on the 3rd pairing and that’s where he needs to stay.

    I believe it’s in our best interest to get Sekera up with nurse to help with puck moving on our 2nd pair.

    Klef-Larss
    Nurse-Sekera
    Russell-Benning

    I believe everyone is slotted in their appropriate depth, nobody playing above their heads. Petro and Gravel are capable 7,8 D men as well so for now I’m willing to put a fixed stamp on our D.

    Now the forwards is where it gets ugly. Assuming Khaira is back soon (injury was 2-3 weeks initial timeline and it’s been that long now) id run:

    Drai-McD-Kass
    Khaira-Nuge-Gags
    Lucic-Cave-Currie
    Rieder-Malone-Rattie

    And if one of Cave/Currie/Rattie is hot that game double shift him a few times in Gagners spot.

    17 games remaining, we need 13 wins. Starting on Monday, hopefully we are at 1. Fairly easy home stretch coming up and I see us pounding the leafs at home which is our hardest game. Mhmm koolaid

  57. Maoriduvpoojt says:

    Okay, so from the Nurse discussion yesterday I decided to do a bit of digging.

    To be clear I like Darnell Nurse and AM NOT trying to “run him out of town”, my issue is that I strongly believe that his offensive numbers are being seriously inflated by McDavid and Draisaitl. I am very concerned what his next contract will look like and I just don’t think the value is there. I think that given his usage and his 5 v 5 offense + now adding PP pts to his resume puts him somewhere in the $6-7 million range, whereas I feel his value should be $4.5-5.5 million, but at the higher range this will again put this team into serious Cap Hell, which is my biggest concern with this team moving forward . Someone also scoffed when I suggested that he would be properly slotted as 3LD, but I think this is where he should be today. I do see him becoming an elite-skating McDonagh, but I think he is still about 2-3 years away from that level.

    ————————————————————————————————————————————

    I am not a mathy person, so I wasn’t able to do anything like Woodguy or Wilde or likely anyone else on this blog but, here is what I found.

    Top 5 Minutes Played in the NHL the last 2 years:

    1. Drew Doughty – 2nd in Avg TOI/game
    2. Ryan Suter – 1st in Avg TOI/game; Karlsson 3rd
    3. Darnell Nurse – over that span he is 7th in terms of Avg TOI – Larsson is 6th
    4. Ivan Provorov
    5. Dmitri Orlov

    I also looked at offense, but other things got in the way, so it was not an in-depth dig. However, I did compare the CF/60 Rel and here are the same 5 players and their rank over the past 2 seasons.

    161. Drew Doughty
    31. Ryan Suter
    218. Darnell Nurse
    208. Ivan Provorov
    199. Dmitri Orlov

    Top 3: 1. Dougie Hamilton 12.16 2. Brent Burns 11.06 3. Roman Josi 9.61

    Evan Bouchard showed extremely well here in a small sample size, but it does help us see that he very well could be a bona-fide ice tilter. He was 10.47 in this metric.

    From here I actually went into Nurse’s player profile on NHL.com and looked at every game where he produced points in the past 2 seasons. I believe his offensive production and his excellent 5 v 5 numbers are inflated due to his excessive usage and therefore his TOI with McDavid and Draisaitl, who are elite point producers. It is amazing that others are not being dragged along as well, but I think the combination of Darnell’s elite skating and his aggressiveness at joining the rush, along with his over-usage due to injuries to Klefbom and Sekera these past 2 years is the differentiator.

    Another thing I noticed was how streaky Darnell’s point production has been. In this season, which I looked at in 10 game segments he scored this way:

    (1) 1G 4 A (2) 1G 0A (3) 1G 2A (4) 2G 7A (5) 1G 5A (6) 1G 5A (7) 0G 3A (5 Games)

    I know that most players score in bunches, but in Darnell’s case in order of the streaks his looked like this:

    (1) 1G 2A in 3 games (2) 2A in 2 (3) 3G 9A in 12 (4)1G 4A in 5 (5)1 G 4 A in 5 (6) 3A in 2

    So FWIW he scored 6G and 24A in 29 games & 1G 1A in the remaining 36 games

    Here is his points break down with and without Drai and CMD:

    2017-18: 6G 19A 25Pts Without: 2G 3-1stA 5-2ndA With: 4G 5-1stA 6-2ndA 15/25 pts generated with 29 & 97

    2018-19: 7G 25A 32Pts Without: 1G 4-1stA 4-2ndA With: 6G 4-1stA 14-2ndA 24/32 pts generated with 29 & 97

    I am just presenting what I found and I suspected he was getting a boost from his massive TOI with these elite scorers. The 14 secondary assists and the large proportion of his goals being set up by Drai or CMD confirms it for me.

    *Note: His first goal of the season was in OT, with an assist to Nuge. My point here is that if he were slotted as 3LD, he wouldn’t likely have been given this opportunity.

  58. BONE207 says:

    bmclav:
    I agree with all about Benning consistently being a positive contributor on the 3rd pairing and that’s where he needs to stay.

    I believe it’s in our best interest to get Sekera up with nurse to help with puck moving on our 2nd pair.

    Klef-Larss
    Nurse-Sekera
    Russell-Benning

    I believe everyone is slotted in their appropriate depth, nobody playing above their heads. Petro and Gravel are capable 7,8 D men as well so for now I’m willing to put a fixed stamp on our D.

    Now the forwards is where it gets ugly. Assuming Khaira is back soon (injury was 2-3 weeks initial timeline and it’s been that long now) id run:

    Drai-McD-Kass
    Khaira-Nuge-Gags
    Lucic-Cave-Currie
    Rieder-Malone-Rattie

    And if one of Cave/Currie/Rattie is hot that game double shift him a few times in Gagners spot.

    17 games remaining, we need 13 wins. Starting on Monday, hopefully we are at 1. Fairly easy home stretch coming up and I see us pounding the leafs at home which is our hardest game. Mhmm koolaid

    The more I watch Russell play, the more I want him moved. Not just down but out of Oilers town. So why not put Gravel with Benning & have Russell as 7D. Unless of course, there is a movement to save Starfish.

  59. Maoriduvpoojt says:

    The RHD as we all know needs an upgrade. As the numbers show Benning is a very good 3RD, but he struggles when bumped up the line-up. This is where the options are limited. What are the options moving into the summer. Stralman? Myers? I would be comfortable with moving Benning and then signing one of Stralman or Myers to a 2-3 yr contract (Stralman most likely to take a shorter deal) and let one of Persson, Bouchard and Bear to fight it out for 3RD and bring in a player like Taylor Fedun (small sample size but over the past 2 years his Rel metrics appear to be pretty good) as 4RD.

    As far as LD goes, I would like to move Russell (savings on Benning and Russell is your salary for whomever you get for 2RD) for picks at the draft preferrably. Then your LD Depth would be Klefbom, preferably Sekera, then Nurse. Sign a #4 LD, Martin Marincin (seriously) would look good in this slot given his metrics. This gives Jones another year to build on this one, with the option to call up when necessary, but it gives this team more insulation from injury, which is one of the big factors that has derailed the McDavid teams.

  60. OriginalPouzar says:

    Samorukov with 3 assists through two periods of play as Guelph continues to pile up the goals. What a run Samorukov is on.

  61. Alpine says:

    5v5 GF% does everything people want +/- to do, so why don’t we agree to use that from now on? I have more time than I used to for goal differential as it pertains to individual players.

    Maybe because I think you need to consider a handful of statistics to see how they relate to each other. Also it seems apparent players can, to some effect, be scoring chance creators or preventors either positively or negatively. PDO and team effects can help you suss out how GF% how fluctuate with players.

  62. bmclav says:

    Now for next year, we’ll make the playoffs. We’re getting major additions to our D: Sekera full year, one of Jones/Bear ready, Lagesson pushing, Bouchard likely ready. And don’t forget wild card Persson who could be the best of all them next year as he’s older/more XP. What a sight. Defence: A-

    On F, I’ve been lookin up comparables and Benson and Marodys numbers are showing up in great places and compare favourably to guys like Toffoli, Dzingel, Nylander etc at that age. I think we’ve got 2/3rds of a soft minutes skilled 3rd line ready to come up next year. Just need to find them a Vet to complete the line. Forwards: B

    Here’s the lineup I’d start with, assuming we dump Russell and sign a FA (Dzingel)… note: I’d leave the lines alone for extended periods, weeks at a time or longer if things going well. No more blender

    Dzingel-McD-Khaira
    Nuge-Drai-Pulju
    Benson-Marody-Kassian
    Lucic-Cave-Currie

    Klef-Larss
    Nurse-Bouchard
    Sekera-Persson
    Jones/Bear as 7th D with the other playing heavy in Bako

    Koski
    Stolarz/Starrett

    A lot riding on Koski staying healthy and playing up to expectations.. I’d sign Johnson or another solid experienced backup for some insurance. Also a lot of rookie / youth in that lineup but also a lot of skill and quickness and much more hockey sense which is where the league is trending. If our boys essentially win the AHL (17 game win streak shows they’ve already won) why shouldn’t the cream of that crop graduate?

  63. Scungilli Slushy says:

    jtblack:
    Maybe its this simple.

    Oscar returns.Sekera Returns. = Winning

    I believe that in this era D quality is essential to winning.

    I don’t think they need to score points as much as retrieve and move the puck.

    In the past D could simply be physical and perhaps forwards drove play more. Obstruction was a big part of it.

    Now skating is at the core of everything for most players and with every team being well organized defensively a team has to be a 5 man unit to have enough positive possession.

    So you get to mobile puck movers back and the team is suddenly competitive, the coach says their playing the system and as a team, and the goalie looks good.

    Really all that has changed is the availability of two players.

    2RD is the key piece. Russell isn’t that anymore and Sekera isn’t a safe bet either because of injury history and age.

    They need a competent player to stop gap until Bouchard, Persson or Berglund step up. Preferably not an offensive weak defense type as that’s what the hopefuls are

  64. Lowetide says:

    For The Athletic:
    How many future NHL goal scorers are playing for the Bakersfield Condors this season?

    https://theathletic.com/842673/2019/03/03/how-many-future-nhl-goal-scorers-are-playing-for-the-bakersfield-condors-this-season/

  65. bmclav says:

    bmclav,

    Next up, looking at BAKO next year, I will just look at the feature players but the cavalry is coming, impressive:

    Top line of:
    Maksimov-McLeod-Yamamoto

    D corps:
    Lagesson-Jones/Bear (one of them will make big club)
    Samorukov-Berglund (or Bouchard if he doesnt make NHL)
    Kemp-Marino

    Wells
    Skinner
    Rodrigue

    Not to mention we will have a top 10 pick (think Cozens/Zegras/Turcotte) this year who will be impact, and another pick in the 30s in a deep draft and the way our drafting has been trending the last few years these two picks will likely be blue chippers.

    Sometimes it’s hard to see due to our failure in the nhl but our prospect system is top 10 in the league hands down, at this time. Impact players coming up at every position but especially D and goalies.

  66. JimmyV1965 says:

    Maoriduvpoojt:
    The RHD as we all know needs an upgrade.As the numbers show Benning is a very good 3RD, but he struggles when bumped up the line-up.This is where the options are limited.What are the options moving into the summer.Stralman?Myers?I would be comfortable with moving Benning and then signing one of Stralman or Myers to a 2-3 yr contract (Stralman most likely to take a shorter deal) and let one of Persson, Bouchard and Bear to fight it out for 3RD and bring in a player like Taylor Fedun (small sample size but over the past 2 years his Rel metrics appear to be pretty good) as 4RD.

    As far as LD goes, I would like to move Russell (savings on Benning and Russell is your salary for whomever you get for 2RD) for picks at the draft preferrably.Then your LD Depth would be Klefbom, preferably Sekera, then Nurse.Sign a #4 LD, Martin Marincin (seriously) would look good in this slot
    given his metrics.This gives Jones another year to build on this one, with the option to call up when necessary, but it gives this team more insulation from injury, which is one of the big factors that has derailed the McDavid teams.

    If we manage to somehow sign Stralman or Myers it’s because of an overpay. I find it hard to believe either of those guys are signing here for two or three years. I doubt Myers signs for less than six and Stralman for less than four. To bring them here would be even longer term.

  67. Genjutsu says:

    The Contract was highly panned at the time and it just might work out.

    I couldn’t see it as either good or bad at the time as I don’t own the required skull laden top hat or smoke enough cigars.

  68. OriginalPouzar says:

    Maksimov with a third period goal but Niagara – 6 shots on net and plus 1 in a 6-5 loss.

  69. Andy Dufresne says:

    SwedishPoster:
    Leon was pure filth last night. Those missed Connor games might have been a blessing in disguise. It’s like Leon went, yeah I’m this good. I’ve been a fan a long time but as of late, Ottawa walk through game aside, he’s picked it up a notch. Imo he’s outplaying his Anaheim series self.

    +1

    Right now as per the points standings today.

    He would be the leading scorer on The Toronto Maple Leafs. The Boston Bruins, The San Jose Sharks: The New York Islanders: The Winnipeg Jets; The Las Vegas Golden Nights; The Nashville Predators; The Washington Capitals; The Carolina Hurricanes….Etc Etc Etc

    Draisaitl has WAY more goals than Kucherov; McDavid; MacKinnon; Guaudreau; Crosby; Scheiflie; Stone; Marner; Panarin; Auston Matthews, Seguin; AND ITS NOT EVEN CLOSE.

    Only one guy ONE GUY in the NHL with more goals….Alex Ovechkin

    Those teams and the fans of those teams Love and RAVE about these star players……Our fan base looks at a contract and how slow he moves and how he doesnt backcheck enough and and and……Nicholson was right about one thing…..There is something in the water here.

    1 RU Nikita Kucherov
    2 US Patrick Kane
    3 CA Connor McDavid
    4 US Johnny Gaudreau
    5 CA Sidney Crosby
    6 CA Nathan MacKinnon
    7 FI Mikko Rantanen
    8 DE Leon Draisaitl
    9 CA Brayden Point
    10 CA Mitchell Marner

    Edit: In fairness to our fan base, a decade of darkness can cause pyschological damage…PTSD and the like…I know I feel it regularly…….lets hope its a temporary condition.

    To the City Manager and the Director of EPCOR regarding the water supply: #fuckflouridewewantprozac

  70. Andy Dufresne says:

    bmclav:
    bmclav,

    Next up, looking at BAKO next year, I will just look at the feature players but the cavalry is coming, impressive:

    Top line of:
    Maksimov-McLeod-Yamamoto

    D corps:
    Lagesson-Jones/Bear (one of them will make big club)
    Samorukov-Berglund (or Bouchard if he doesnt make NHL)
    Kemp-Marino

    Wells
    Skinner
    Rodrigue

    Not to mention we will have a top 10 pick (think Cozens/Zegras/Turcotte) this year who will be impact, and another pick in the 30s in a deep draft and the way our drafting has been trending the last few years these two picks will likely be blue chippers.

    Sometimes it’s hard to see due to our failure in the nhl but our prospect system is top 10 in the league hands down, at this time. Impact players coming up at every position but especially D and goalies.

    +1 Nice Post. Thanks.

  71. Andy Dufresne says:

    bmclav:
    Now for next year, we’ll make the playoffs. We’re getting major additions to our D: Sekera full year, one of Jones/Bear ready, Lagesson pushing, Bouchard likely ready. And don’t forget wild card Persson who could be the best of all them next year as he’s older/more XP. What a sight. Defence: A-

    On F, I’ve been lookin up comparables and Benson and Marodys numbers are showing up in great places and compare favourably to guys like Toffoli, Dzingel, Nylander etc at that age. I think we’ve got 2/3rds of a soft minutes skilled 3rd line ready to come up next year. Just need to find them a Vet to complete the line. Forwards: B

    Here’s the lineup I’d start with, assuming we dump Russell and sign a FA (Dzingel)… note: I’d leave the lines alone for extended periods, weeks at a time or longer if things going well. No more blender

    Dzingel-McD-Khaira
    Nuge-Drai-Pulju
    Benson-Marody-Kassian
    Lucic-Cave-Currie

    Klef-Larss
    Nurse-Bouchard
    Sekera-Persson
    Jones/Bear as 7th D with the other playing heavy in Bako

    Koski
    Stolarz/Starrett

    A lot riding on Koski staying healthy and playing up to expectations.. I’d sign Johnson or another solid experienced backup for some insurance. Also a lot of rookie / youth in that lineup but also a lot of skill and quickness and much more hockey sense which is where the league is trending. If our boys essentially win the AHL (17 game win streak shows they’ve already won) why shouldn’t the cream of that crop graduate?

    The McDavid Mulligan. Lets not F#ck this up!

  72. Andy Dufresne says:

    Dicky94:
    Man I Hope the Oilers can sneak in.Watched the Flames game last night and from what I saw they are easy pickings for a first round upset. Definitely overachieving this year and I’m not just saying that because I’m an Oiler fan.

    On the other hand, they could eliminate us from the playoffs on the last day of our regular season…A Saturday Night game In Calgary.

  73. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Mikko Koskinen showing up in a positive place. I’m not defending the contract but he has had success in the NHL this season. He has a .926 save percentage 5-on-5 in his last 10 games.

    I was going to write something on him using GSAA/100 (in your comments section here, not at my dusty blog)

    If this is Koskinen then the contract is fine.

    We don’t know yet though.

    Biggest negative was all the unknowns, but the goalies available this summer are either really expensive or meh.

    Might work out for EDM.

    His numbers were spectacular during his heater, below replacement level for over 2 months during his ice cold stretch and now spectacular again over the last 6 games.

    What we have seen so far from Mikko are hot and cold stretches and a lack of consistency, a lack of giving the team a chance to win generally throughout a season with some stinkers thrown in and some steals thrown in – what a legit starter does and what we need.

    So far, he’s either hot or cold and this team cannot have that type of starter.

    I am cautiously optimistic on the recent 6 game stretch and it mostly is because, after his stinker against the Leafs, he’s bounced back with 2 plus performances. Stinkers are allowed, they will happen, but the key is the next game and, up and till the Ottawa game, he had not bounced back from a stinker but simply went cold.

    Here is hoping that this is the start of more consistent tending – its an enormous gating issue for this team’s success.

    Go Mikko!

  74. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0:

    Elliott – was hoping he came back for Talbot so EDM could test drive him at back up.Can they get him for $2MM-ish?

    Elliot remains my off-season goalie target. He would be a plus back-up that has the ability to take over the starter’s job for a lengthy period of time if there is injury or Koskinen goes cold. It could be a 1A/1B type of scenario and I don’t think Elliot will cost much more than Mikko did this year – essentially our goaltending costs will stay about the same.

    Shane Starrett deserves real reps at camp and in exhibition but, given the uncertainty that remains around Mikko, we need an established guy with recent success as a starter as the 1B/backup.

    Also, of course, Starrett needs a second full year of being the starter in the AHL before we really can talk about an NHL future – well, at least another couple of months next year where he continues what he’s done this year.

  75. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilman99: One day he looks like a world beater, and the next he cant stop a beach ball, this is still a scary situation until he proves he can be more consistent than he has shown this season. With the contract they gave him,there isn’t any cap room to bring in a proven backup.

    Quoted for truth – as I keep saying, the bounceback performances after the stinker against the Leafs was a bigger deal than if he had another plus game against the Leafs.

    Stinkers will happen – massive cold streak cannot.

    I do think we can bring in a proven back-up in a guy like Elliot – the pairing will, effectively, have a similar cap hit as the Talbot/Koskinen due did this year.

    Of course, a more reasonable Koskinen contract would have allowed us to decrease the aggregate cap hit and use the savings elsewhere but that ship has sailed.

  76. OriginalPouzar says:

    SwedishPoster:
    Leon was pure filth last night. Those missed Connor games might have been a blessing in disguise. It’s like Leon went, yeah I’m this good. I’ve been a fan a long time but as of late, Ottawa walk through game aside, he’s picked it up a notch. Imo he’s outplaying his Anaheim series self.

    He is currently playing like a top 10 forward in the NHL, maybe even top 5.

    His offensive game is elite, we know this and we’ve known this for a while, and he’s currently at the top of his offensive game. What is pushing his game to elite levels is the other areas (a) the penalty killing, (b) the faceoffs and (c) importantly, a huge uptick in defensive zone awareness and commitment.

  77. OriginalPouzar says:

    Filip Berglung got on the scoresheet with an assist yesterday but Joel Persson was kept off for once (although his ice time is back up – almost 22 mintues again – top minutes).

  78. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer: Benning is not the issue.So he couldn’t run with the 2nd pairing job.Still a usable defenseman
    The issue with the D is the amount of damage that is caused by Russell being the second pairing D.Nurse’s weekness is passing so pairing him with an even worse passer only compounds the problem. We need to get him someone that can pass. Montour would have been an amazing acquisition and Buffalo has a lot of RHD so maybe for the right price they trade him to us.
    Klef Larsson
    Nurse Montour
    Sekera Benning
    Would make me happy
    You could run with that. And give Bennings spot to Bouchard in a year
    But if for next season the goal is to replace Benning we are doing it wrong.

    Correct, the biggest hole for this team remains 2RD and, with Sekera looking like, well, Sekera, that will give us the luxury of disposing of Russell for cap space that needs to be used in connection with a real 2RD – short term to stop-gap until Bouchard (Jones) is ready for top 4 minutes.

    Klef/Larsson
    Nurse/Stralman
    Sekera/Benning (Lagesson, Jones, Persson, Bear)

  79. oilersfan says:

    OP, is Persson’s Vaxjo team going to make the SEL playoffs?

    If not can he come play in Bakersfield for the playoffs?

  80. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer:
    At the start of the season I was thinking it will take us two years to get this ship headed in the right direction.Hope we get a competent GM to make a few good moves.
    Move Brodziak Russell Gagner to free up cap.Probably stuck with Gagner though unless we take a bad contract back.Canucks could use Russell for a couple years.Add a small sweetener.
    If July 1 Lucic really wants a trade they really need to push to mutually terminate his contract.Someone will sign him.Size is still a thing
    Teams out there are running out of cap space having space to make moves would be huge

    Brodz can be buried in the AHL for a cap hit of apx $100K next year – if we can get rid of the contract clean then, sure, do it, but its not an issue cap wise

    Russel – yes, with Sekera back, this is a key disposition – management needs to find a way to get rid of the contract clean – any return is a cherry as long as there is $4M in cap

    Gagner – Yes, I’d like him to make $1M less, however, I think we can get value from Sam next year – this is a guy that wants to be hear, will be playing for a contract and isn’t far removed from a good season. He is now a responsible player in all zones and he has value in the ability to move up and down the lineup – middle six and top 6 as well as play on the PP. I’m not so sure he can’t get 35-40 points next season which would be value for $3M in the current market.

  81. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bulging Twine:
    I keep hearing of this LT rant.Anyone have a transcript?

    Yaremchuk posts links to all the Lowetide segments on his twitter feed – I’m sure it would be fairly easy to find. Let me know if you want me to find it for you..

    I’m not sure you want to know my hourly rate though….

  82. Andy Dufresne says:

    OriginalPouzar: His numbers were spectacular during his heater, below replacement level for over 2 months during his ice cold stretch and now spectacular again over the last 6 games.

    What we have seen so far from Mikko are hot and cold stretches and a lack of consistency, a lack of giving the team a chance to win generally throughout a season with some stinkers thrown in and some steals thrown in – what a legit starter does and what we need.

    So far, he’s either hot or cold and this team cannot have that type of starter.

    I am cautiously optimistic on the recent 6 game stretch and it mostly is because, after his stinker against the Leafs, he’s bounced back with 2 plus performances.Stinkers are allowed, they will happen, but the key is the next game and, up and till the Ottawa game, he had not bounced back from a stinker but simply went cold.

    Here is hoping that this is the start of more consistent tending – its an enormous gating issue for this team’s success.

    Go Mikko!

    Hey OP, not sure if you’ve heard my opinion on this one 🙂

    Look at LTs chart at the bottom of his post. Mikko in is the top half, with the elite/semi elite goalies. ON THIS SHIT TEAM!!!

    The team has been hot and cold and lacking of consistency, the team hasnt given their goaltenders a chance to win on many nights generally throughout the season .

    Mikkos record includes having to play on a defensively weak team with NO SEKERA and for a long stretch with no KLEFBOM!! with Benning and Russell in the top 4!

    We chased/gave away Dubnyk and Broissoit. Almost certainly for the same reasons.

    You think goalies are VOODOO….well the single largest ingredient in Goalie VOODOO?….its listed right there on the package contents list……Ingredients: Team Defense, Commitment to the System, NHL Defensemen slotted in the proper order, Goalie Coach. (May or May Not Contain Nuts)

  83. leadfarmer says:

    Ha!! Just realized Aberg wore out his welcome and is on yet another team

  84. OriginalPouzar says:

    bmclav:
    bmclav,

    Next up, looking at BAKO next year, I will just look at the feature players but the cavalry is coming, impressive:

    Top line of:
    Maksimov-McLeod-Yamamoto

    D corps:
    Lagesson-Jones/Bear (one of them will make big club)
    Samorukov-Berglund (or Bouchard if he doesnt make NHL)
    Kemp-Marino

    Wells
    Skinner
    Rodrigue

    Is this for next year?

    Lowe will be on the Condors – he’s signed.
    Manning as well at this point.

    Kemp will be going back to college (Marino might have one more year of college as well).Berglund may spend one more year in Sweden given the infulx of D. Bouchard and Persson may be in the AHL as well.

    Rodrigue will be back in the Q next year.

    Hawkeye will be in the mix (hopefully) and Starrett will likely be back in the AHL as well.

  85. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar: Brodz can be buried in the AHL for a cap hit of apx $100K next year – if we can get rid of the contract clean then, sure, do it, but its not an issue cap wise

    Russel – yes, with Sekera back, this is a key disposition – management needs to find a way to get rid of the contract clean – any return is a cherry as long as there is $4M in cap

    Gagner – Yes, I’d like him to make $1M less, however, I think we can get value from Sam next year – this is a guy that wants to be hear, will be playing for a contract and isn’t far removed from a good season.He is now a responsible player in all zones and he has value in the ability to move up and down the lineup – middle six and top 6 as well as play on the PP. I’m not so sure he can’t get 35-40 points next season which would be value for $3M in the current market.

    Gagner is a borderline 1 million dollar player that is getting paid a lot more.
    Maybe Columbus will get desperate enough to take him off our hands

  86. Andy Dufresne says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Mikko Koskinen showing up in a positive place. I’m not defending the contract but he has had success in the NHL this season. He has a .926 save percentage 5-on-5 in his last 10 games.

    I was going to write something on him using GSAA/100 (in your comments section here, not at my dusty blog)

    If this is Koskinen then the contract is fine.

    We don’t know yet though.

    Biggest negative was all the unknowns, but the goalies available this summer are either really expensive or meh.

    Might work out for EDM.

    +1 Four accurate statements IMO. Thank You. And thanks as always for the Standings Updates.

  87. OriginalPouzar says:

    oilersfan:
    OP, is Persson’s Vaxjo team going to make the SEL playoffs?

    If not can he come play in Bakersfield for the playoffs?

    Vaxjo is on a heater right now and it looks like they are going to make the playoffs.

    I need to do some research on this but I think he may have to clear waivers in order to play in North America – definitely not certain on that (it may only apply to newly signed players from Europe as opposed to those that are signed and are on loan).

  88. steelymac17 says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Samorukov reminds me so much of Smid. (:

  89. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    SwedishPoster:
    Leon was pure filth last night. Those missed Connor games might have been a blessing in disguise.

    – I think the blessing is disguise is perhaps this makes the team do the right thing and put Drai and McD as C’s on different lines

    – This team wins Cups when they are C’s on their own lines: I’ve seen all the #’s tht show the WOWY’s, etc. It doesn’t matter IMO. Inflating each others numbers when playing together all the time doesn’t develop the team, or wingers. They need chem without each other

    – Figure it out. Drai did when he didn’t have CmD

  90. Andy Dufresne says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Doesn’t solve that argument, but its the best we have right now.

    I appreciate that you have qualified the results by stating its the best we have right now.

    But can you help me understand kinda of conceptually or otherwise, how Price, Gibson, Rinne, Murray, Dubnyk and Fluery are all in the bottom half of the list?

    Is it as simple as saying they are really good goalies who are having off years?
    or
    really good goalies who are only average or slightly above average in the regular season?
    or
    really good goalies whose teams are playing below average ths year?
    or
    something else?

    Please and Thank You.

  91. Andy Dufresne says:

    steelymac17:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Samorukov reminds me so much of Smid. (:

    How so?

  92. Andy Dufresne says:

    leadfarmer: Gagner is a borderline 1 million dollar player that is getting paid a lot more.
    Maybe Columbus will get desperate enough to take him off our hands

    Recent history is on your side.

    It would be and interesting anlaysis to know who is performing truer to form

    Gagner or Chaisson?

    AND

    Who is better value? (given AVV)

  93. Andy Dufresne says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: I think the blessing is disguise is perhaps this makes the team do the right thing and put Drai and McD as C’s on different lines

    Theres lots of thing in the NHL that have historic timelines

    Dmen typically take two years longer to devlop than forwards.

    Well for me young WInger/Centers typically take at least two years to mature to the point where they play the Center Position effectively/efficiently……even longer to be above average/effective at faceoffs. IMO its why smart teams keep them on the wing until they are ready/their game has matured.

    Sean Couturier, Brayden Schenn etc etc

    Like Taylor Hall and others, the organization supplied no depth/support for a player like Leon, so the default became playing him with McDavid for as long as was necessary……which of course, as it turns out, worked.

    IMO Leon is right on track in terms of when we should have realistically expected him to be an effective center. I have zero issue with the idea that Leon will be 23 when the season starts next year and will be driving his own line (if we get one or two scoring forwards during the summer)

  94. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Alpine:
    5v5 GF% does everything people want +/- to do, so why don’t we agree to use that from now on? I have more time than I used to for goal differential as it pertains to individual players.

    Maybe because I think you need to consider a handful of statistics to see how they relate to each other. Also it seems apparent players can, to some effect, be scoring chance creators or preventors either positively or negatively. PDO and team effects can help you suss out how GF% how fluctuate with players.

    OK, here are numbers for 5v5 +/- & GF% 2016-19 (min 600 minutes):

    McDavid +55 / 57.26%
    Benning +24 / 55.22%
    Maroon +23 / 56.35%
    Draisaitl +11 / 51.63%
    Eberle +9 / 55.56%
    Slepyshev +2 / 51.61%
    Nurse +2 / 50.35%
    Rattie +1 / 50.85%
    Lucic even / 50%
    Davidson even / 50%

    Other D
    Larsson, Russell, Sekera, Gryba all -4
    Klefbom -12

    Other F
    All minus

    Hard to draw a different conclusion among D than “Benning stands out”

  95. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Bruce McCurdy: OK, here are numbers for 5v5 +/- & GF% 2016-19 (min 600 minutes):

    McDavid +55 / 57.26%
    Benning +24 / 55.22%
    Maroon +23 / 56.35%
    Draisaitl +11 / 51.63%
    Eberle +9 / 55.56%
    Slepyshev +2 / 51.61%
    Nurse +2 / 50.35%
    Rattie +1 / 50.85%
    Lucic even / 50%
    Davidson even / 50%

    Other D
    Larsson, Russell, Sekera, Gryba all -4
    Klefbom -12

    Other F
    All minus

    Hard to draw a different conclusion among D than “Benning stands out”

    Benning is a very helpful player used properly. A modern style D. Even with some snarl the org can’t live without.

  96. Andy Dufresne says:

    Bruce McCurdy: OK, here are numbers for 5v5 +/- & GF% 2016-19 (min 600 minutes):

    McDavid +55 / 57.26%
    Benning +24 / 55.22%
    Maroon +23 / 56.35%
    Draisaitl +11 / 51.63%
    Eberle +9 / 55.56%
    Slepyshev +2 / 51.61%
    Nurse +2 / 50.35%
    Rattie +1 / 50.85%
    Lucic even / 50%
    Davidson even / 50%

    Other D
    Larsson, Russell, Sekera, Gryba all -4
    Klefbom -12

    Other F
    All minus

    Hard to draw a different conclusion among D than “Benning stands out”

    Agreed……..One other defensman stands out as well……..

  97. Glovjuice says:

    Jethro Tull: What is the correction factor? There have been some fine hockey players on some shitty teams that had horrible +/-. Some of them even played for us.

    It corrects by generally removing the competition factor as most players generally play against like quality/wage players.

  98. Andy Dufresne says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Benning is a very helpful player used properly. A modern style D. Even with some snarl the org can’t live without.

    His GF% is great. His +- is great. He is physical for his size. Whats not to like?

    Is he a modern style D? Maybe, the numbers seem to say so.

    But he doesnt look like the other Medium to Small Dmen we typically call modern style D. He not a great skater, hes not a great passer, he dosent post offenisve numbers that other modern style dmen do.

    But the numbers show we score more goals when he’s on the ice than goals scored against us. And yet he doesnt seem to get the goals and assists that would/shoud normally accompany those stats.

    So what is it? Is he heavily sheltered? (not really) Does he get more ozone starts? (not sure) Is he given the better D partners? (doesnt appear to be)

    Hes an enigma wrapped in a riddle. He’s a meaner more physical Justin Schultz without the offense.

  99. Andy Dufresne says:

    Jethro Tull: What is the correction factor? There have been some fine hockey players on some shitty teams that had horrible +/-. Some of them even played for us.

    ~ Dad! Jethro said the C word!……..(well the CF phrase to be precise) ~

    Noun. correction factor (plural correction factors) A factor that is multiplied with the result of an equation to correct for a known amount of systemic error.

    ~ What’s next….you gonna ask for a confidence interval ~

  100. Maoriduvpoojt says:

    Sorry about my Nurse post, I did it in Word and then pasted it in the comments, I didn’t realize the formatting was so messed up to show Nurse’s point stats and with/without McDavid/Draisaitl and then I had to leave pretty much right away, so I wasn’t able to check it. I have re-formatted it, so hopefully it is easier to decipher.

    I am quite surprised there are no comments, it seemed to be a topic of interest yesterday…..

  101. Glovjuice says:

    deardylan: Sounds productive…win or learn! Wonder what other combos we do while watching Oil. Im usually cooking up a meal with drizzled OliveOil when i get back from work late.

    Oilers be hard on the heart…not sure what the average life span in Oil country is…but Olive oil, music optimism, gym, travel might give us a few more seasons if life to enjoy

    The oldest person ever was Frenchwoman Jeanne Calment, who died in 1997 after living a verified 122 years. She credited a diet rich in olive oil for her longevity, and was so fond of the stuff she used it on her skin daily.

    Best sexual lubricant as well – tastes good and all.

  102. YKOil says:

    As always, he key is a proper 2RHD, or even another Larsson type, so that Sekera/Benning can be moved to 3rd pair permanently (barring injury) and Klefbom/Larsson can oscillate with the 2nd pair of Nurse/X (oscillate referring to the most minutes going to the defensive pairs playing the best that night).

    Fix 2RHD (and pray for health of course, of course) and there will be play-offs (barring goalie collapse of course, of course).

  103. Maoriduvpoojt says:

    Bruce McCurdy: OK, here are numbers for 5v5 +/- & GF% 2016-19 (min 600 minutes):

    McDavid +55 / 57.26%
    Benning +24 / 55.22%
    Maroon +23 / 56.35%
    Draisaitl +11 / 51.63%
    Eberle +9 / 55.56%
    Slepyshev +2 / 51.61%
    Nurse +2 / 50.35%
    Rattie +1 / 50.85%
    Lucic even / 50%
    Davidson even / 50%

    Other D
    Larsson, Russell, Sekera, Gryba all -4
    Klefbom -12

    Other F
    All minus

    Hard to draw a different conclusion among D than “Benning stands out”

    Yohann Auvitu +4 / 59.09% or to get to over the 600 minute criteria and add his time in NJ (a horrible team with a GF GA differential of -61 goals) he was: +5/58.5%
    Damn McClellan, there was massive value there.

  104. Jethro Tull says:

    deardylan: Sounds productive…win or learn! Wonder what other combos we do while watching Oil. Im usually cooking up a meal with drizzled OliveOil when i get back from work late.

    Oilers be hard on the heart…not sure what the average life span in Oil country is…but Olive oil, music optimism, gym, travel might give us a few more seasons if life to enjoy

    The oldest person ever was Frenchwoman Jeanne Calment, who died in 1997 after living a verified 122 years. She credited a diet rich in olive oil for her longevity, and was so fond of the stuff she used it on her skin daily.

    Is this her?

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_Báthory

  105. Jethro Tull says:

    Andy Dufresne: ~Dad!Jethro said the C word!……..(well the CF phrase to be precise) ~

    Noun. correction factor (plural correction factors) A factor that is multiplied with the result of an equation to correct for a known amount of systemic error.

    ~ What’s next….you gonna ask for a confidence interval ~

    Hmmmm……pretty sure I didn’t ask for the definition. And I know that as ‘Offset’.

    My question was what is the inherent correction factor in +/-.

  106. Jethro Tull says:

    Glovjuice: It corrects by generally removing the competition factor as most players generally play against like quality/wage players.

    Yeah, that’s great and all, but, like, prove your work. Math up.

  107. Jethro Tull says:

    Andy Dufresne: How so?

    LT doesn’t like him.

  108. Hairbag says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    I think that major injuries on defence coincided with his ice cold stretch – not that I think he has proven himself but I do think the porous d that we ran for 2months while Klef, Russell and Sek were out definitely showed our lack of depth and skill at the position…many nights were a shooting gallery of quality chances.

  109. JimmyV1965 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yaremchuk posts links to all the Lowetide segments on his twitter feed – I’m sure it would be fairly easy to find.Let me know if you want me to find it for you..

    I’m not sure you want to know my hourly rate though….

    I couldn’t find the original post so I’ll just add this info to yours. TSN makes podcast of virtually all its shows. LTs rant is the first segment Thursday. It starts almost right away.

  110. Jethro Tull says:

    Pescador: Oil of Elizabeth

    Not sure of the etymology, but I’m like 50% sure that’s where we get the word ‘bath’ from.

  111. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Hairbag,

    – In the last two yers (assuming health for rest of year): Sek, Larsson, Klef will have missed approximaley 120 games. So close to 75% of the games at least one of them have been out.

    -Or another way, between the three of them close to 50% of the total games all 3 should have played at least one missed

    – This has been a massive set-back for the org: its hurt the goalies, secondary scoring, slotting D properly, special teams, transistion, giving emerging D proper partners, systems cap, etc.

  112. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: Correct, the biggest hole for this team remains 2RD and, with Sekera looking like, well, Sekera, that will give us the luxury of disposing of Russell for cap space that needs to be used in connection with a real 2RD – short term to stop-gap until Bouchard (Jones) is ready for top 4 minutes.

    Klef/Larsson
    Nurse/Stralman
    Sekera/Benning (Lagesson, Jones, Persson, Bear)

    OriginalPouzar:

    Russel – yes, with Sekera back, this is a key disposition – management needs to find a way to get rid of the contract clean – any return is a cherry as long as there is $4M in cap

    I really hope we get decent look at Nurse-Sekera (in whatever order) before the season’s done.

    I’m all for a Russell for Stralman swap but a lot of things have to fall into place for that to happen.

    Can we move Russell, considering his limited NTC?

    If we do, will Stralman sign? This is a big one for me, the only FA options I can see that are plausible are Stralman and Myers. Are they going to sign for 4-5M for 2-3 yrs? Surely there will be other teams offering them similar money for longer than 2-3 yrs…

    If Russell were moved and Stralman/Myers don’t sign, then a trade for a 2RD is an option. But that costs assets, which isn’t ideal while this team is unfortunately still building.

    As much as I do think a 2RD upgrade is important, I wonder if muddling through with the current D for a bit longer is the right call. In particular if Sekera can “solve” the 2RD problem (by that I mean, if Nurse-Sekera can be an improvement on Nurse-Russell. I agree that Sekera isn’t ideal either).

    Basically I’m unsure about every step of the process. That Russell can be dumped cleanly to one of his choice destinations, that a FA replacement (improvement) can be found for similar money and term, and failing that if a trade for a replacement (improvement) is worth the asset cost.

    For me, knowing if Nurse-Sekera is actually a better option is key. It informs all of the potential decisions above. And for that matter, if Nurse-Sekera looks good, you don’t need to worry as much about whether a replacement is available if a Russell move is possible.

  113. Andy Dufresne says:

    Maoriduvpoojt: I am just presenting what I found and I suspected he was getting a boost from his massive TOI with these elite scorers. The 14 secondary assists and the large proportion of his goals being set up by Drai or CMD confirms it for me.

    *Note: His first goal of the season was in OT, with an assist to Nuge. My point here is that if he were slotted as 3LD, he wouldn’t likely have been given this opportunity.

    Hi Maoriduvpoojt. I appreciate your hard work. I would have responded sooner but Im still trying to figure out how to pronounce your name 🙂

    I agree with your main points. Nurse gets zoomed by McDavid and Drai and half of his points are secondary assists (good catch)

    AND you are correct, dmen get paid for scoring points, so this is going to boost his contract ask.

    Heres the other part you mentioned,

    He is minute muncher/eater. He plays big minutes up and down the lineup. Thats also part of why he’s going to get paid.

    He does not appear on most nights to be playing above his confidience level (snuck that one in there for my mathy friends).
    Yes he takes a few too many penalties, and has a few gaffs on some nights.

    Bottom Line: He is/was playing up in the order due to injuries fo other Dmen. No choice really.
    He assumed the risk of signing a bridge contract, and the results of that so far are to his favor. Good on him!

    The real test will come next year. Where does he play in a helathy lineup? Will he continue to get/earn PP1 time? That may come down to how well Klefbom starts the year and how healthy the D is.

    I think your premise is that the team could have done a better job at surpressing his offensive numbers by playing lower in the lineup. Two things about that,1) injuries forced their hand and 2) most sports franchises arent in the habit of surpressing their assets for sake of cost savings/bargining position. They are more inclined to give their young stars room to develop and encourage thier development sometimes even by forcing them to play above thier estabished levels.

    IMO the Oilers did the right thing with the Nurse bridge contract. They challenged him to prove who/what he is and to increase his offensive output. He took that bet and is so far winning that bet (even if there is a bit of lucky circumstance involved in that) They dont ask how, they ask how many.

    If Nurse can remain on his current trajectory of big minutes and growing offensive production, He’s going to get paid….and the organization will be happy to do so.

    Right now, given his age, his minutes, his scoring, his skating, and his physicality, he’s tracking towards the 5 to 6.5 million range. No one in the organization or on this site is hoping he regresses.

    Personally, if he continues his development and turns out to be a slightly overpaid $5.5 million top 4 defensemen, Im quite happy about that.

    Thanks again for your post. 🙂

  114. Andy Dufresne says:

    Jethro Tull: Hmmmm……pretty sure I didn’t ask for the definition. And I know that as ‘Offset’.

    My question was what is the inherent correction factor in +/-.

    Those are sarcasm tildes ~~~

    Im with you my friend.

  115. Andy Dufresne says:

    Jethro Tull: LT doesn’t like him.

    lol

  116. Glovjuice says:

    OriginalPouzar: He is currently playing like a top 10 forward in the NHL, maybe even top 5.

    His offensive game is elite, we know this and we’ve known this for a while, and he’s currently at the top of his offensive game. What is pushing his game to elite levels is the other areas (a) the penalty killing, (b) the faceoffs and (c) importantly, a huge uptick in defensive zone awareness and commitment.

    Leon is not playing better than Crosby, McDavid, Kucherov, Kane, and Ovechkin I can assure all here of that.

  117. Hairbag says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Completely agree

  118. Andy Dufresne says:

    Hairbag:
    OriginalPouzar,

    I think that major injuries on defence coincided with his ice cold stretch – not that I think he has proven himself but I do think the porous d that we ran for 2months while Klef, Russell and Sek were out definitely showed our lack of depth and skill at the position…many nights were a shooting gallery of quality chances.

    Thank you HB!

    The quality of your comment I think betrays your handle 🙂

  119. Jethro Tull says:

    Andy Dufresne: Those are sarcasm tildes ~~~

    Im with you my friend.

    All good!😉

  120. Hairbag says:

    Andy Dufresne,

    Lol a nickname from my youth when I had a healthy crop!

  121. Andy Dufresne says:

    Hairbag:
    Andy Dufresne,

    Lol a nickname from my youth when I had a healthy crop!

    lol…….I once worked with a guy named Animal (no really…that was his name)……He looked liked Animal from the muppets….and had THE MOST loud uproarious laugh I have ever heard even to this day…..and he laughed alot…..I admired him for it. (the hair and the laugh)

    I had three nicknames in my youth…..none of which I’d share with you…..and you post yours like a badge of honour….good on you my man!

  122. godot10 says:

    jp:
    Benning keeps showing up at the top of those D summary boxes in LTs posts. Which made me think of something I looked at a while back.

    The Oilers +/- leaders over the last 3 seasons:

    McDavid 48
    Benning 23
    Maroon 18
    Larsson 15
    Nurse 5
    (Russell 1)
    (Sekera 0)
    (Klefbom -7)

    Pretty impressive considering all the grief Benning gets from some corners.

    Third pairing D used properly are like backup quarterbacks, the most beloved player(s) on the team.

  123. Ryan says:

    jp:
    I really hope we get decent look at Nurse-Sekera (in whatever order) before the season’s done.

    I’m all for a Russell for Stralman swap but a lot of things have to fall into place for that to happen.

    Can we move Russell, considering his limited NTC?

    If we do, will Stralman sign? This is a big one for me, the only FA options I can see that are plausible are Stralman and Myers. Are they going to sign for 4-5M for 2-3 yrs? Surely there will be other teams offering them similar money for longer than 2-3 yrs…

    If Russell were moved and Stralman/Myers don’t sign, then a trade for a 2RD is an option. But that costs assets, which isn’t ideal while this team is unfortunately still building.

    As much as I do think a 2RD upgrade is important, I wonder if muddling through with the current D for a bit longer is the right call. In particular if Sekera can “solve” the 2RD problem (by that I mean, if Nurse-Sekera can be an improvement on Nurse-Russell. I agree that Sekera isn’t ideal either).

    Basically I’m unsure about every step of the process. That Russell can be dumped cleanly to one of his choice destinations, that a FA replacement (improvement) can be found for similar money and term, and failing that if a trade for a replacement (improvement) is worth the asset cost.

    For me, knowing if Nurse-Sekera is actually a better option is key. It informs all of the potential decisions above. And for that matter, if Nurse-Sekera looks good, you don’t need to worry as much about whether a replacement is available if a Russell move is possible.

    Over the years, we’ve seen plenty of straw man arguments here, but it’s been awhile since we had a Stralman argument.

    He’ll be 33 for the start of next season. I’d maybe do two years, but no longer. Doubt we sign him.

    Faulk has one year left on his contract, so the price to acquire him will continue to drop.

  124. smellyglove says:

    Another testament to McDavid. A list of seasons (post-2005) of top even strength goal scorers:

    http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?report=skatergoals&reportType=season&seasonFrom=20052006&seasonTo=20182019&gameType=2&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,30&sort=evGoals

    That’s the top EVG seasons for the past 13 years. Mcdavid’s 2017-18 campaign, with 35 even strength goals, is good enough for #7.

  125. Glovjuice says:

    Andy Dufresne: Those are sarcasm tildes ~~~

    Im with you my friend.

    Simply not very nice.

  126. Maoriduvpoojt says:

    Andy Dufresne: Hi Maoriduvpoojt.I appreciate your hard work. I would have responded sooner but Im still trying to figure out how to pronounce your name 🙂

    I agree with your main points. Nurse gets zoomed by McDavid and Drai and half of his points are secondary assists (good catch)

    AND you are correct, dmen get paid for scoring points, so this is going to boost his contract ask.

    Heres the other part you mentioned,

    He is minute muncher/eater. He plays big minutes up and down the lineup. Thats also part of why he’s going to get paid.

    He does not appear on most nights to be playing above his confidience level (snuck that one in there for my mathy friends).
    Yes he takes a few too many penalties, and has a few gaffs on some nights.

    Bottom Line: He is/was playing up in the order due to injuries fo other Dmen. No choice really.
    He assumed the risk of signing a bridge contract, and the results of that so far are to his favor. Good on him!

    The real test will come next year. Where does he play in a helathy lineup? Will he continue to get/earn PP1 time?That may come down to how well Klefbom starts the year and how healthy the D is.

    I think your premise is that the team could have done a better job at surpressing his offensive numbers by playing lower in the lineup.Two things about that,1)injuries forced their hand and 2) most sports franchises arent in the habit of surpressing their assets for sake of cost savings/bargining position. They are more inclined to give their young stars room to develop and encourage thier development sometimes even by forcing them to play above thier estabished levels.

    IMO the Oilers did the right thing with the Nurse bridge contract. They challenged him to prove who/what he is and to increase his offensive output. He took that bet and is so far winning that bet (even if there is a bit of lucky circumstance involved in that) They dont ask how, they ask how many.

    If Nurse can remain on his current trajectory of big minutes and growing offensive production, He’s going to get paid….and the organization will be happy to do so.

    Right now, given his age, his minutes, his scoring, his skating, and his physicality, he’s tracking towards the 5 to 6.5 million range. No one in the organization or on this site is hoping he regresses.

    Personally, if he continues his development and turns out to be a slightly overpaid $5.5 million top 4 defensemen, Im quite happy about that.

    Thanks again for your post. 🙂

    FYI, Wilde reposted OP’s tweet of the Bakersfield line-up a few weeks ago and this is how Marody came out, and I thought it was hillarious so I changed my nick to this. Pronunciation is not important, the butchered spelling is the key, lol.

    Thanks for the feedback! My point was that Nurse is not an offensive Dman, but my fear is he will get paid like one based on the offense that he is posting. My point is the offense is not a product of his offensive acumen, it is a by-product of his many minutes with elite offense drivers due to the non-existent D depth.

    If he racks up 40 pts this season my fear is his ask will be in the $6-7 million range when it should be IMO at about $5.5.million….

    That being said Kudos to him for taking advantage of the opportunity, streaky as his production has been.

  127. jp says:

    Ryan: Over the years, we’ve seen plenty of straw man arguments here, but it’s been awhile since we had a Stralman argument.

    He’ll be 33 for the start of next season. I’d maybe do two years, but no longer. Doubt we sign him.

    Faulk has one year left on his contract, so the price to acquire him will continue to drop.

    Yeah, CapFriendly incorrectly lists him as 31, so I assumed he’d be 31/32 next year, didn’t check the actual DOB.

    He’s had an off year this year too. Missed some time, so maybe injury related, but at 32.5 it’s that much closer to potentially being real age related decline. Agreed that more than 2 yrs would be very dangerous. And agreed he’s not likely coming to Edm.

    Falk is interesting, his scoring hasn’t recovered since last year, but at least he’s not -20 this go around. I still wonder if his potential upside vs the incumbents is worth the asset cost, even if that’s not so steep.

  128. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp:
    I really hope we get decent look at Nurse-Sekera (in whatever order) before the season’s done.

    I’m all for a Russell for Stralman swap but a lot of things have to fall into place for that to happen.

    Can we move Russell, considering his limited NTC?

    If we do, will Stralman sign? This is a big one for me, the only FA options I can see that are plausible are Stralman and Myers. Are they going to sign for 4-5M for 2-3 yrs? Surely there will be other teams offering them similar money for longer than 2-3 yrs…

    If Russell were moved and Stralman/Myers don’t sign, then a trade for a 2RD is an option. But that costs assets, which isn’t ideal while this team is unfortunately still building.

    As much as I do think a 2RD upgrade is important, I wonder if muddling through with the current D for a bit longer is the right call. In particular if Sekera can “solve” the 2RD problem (by that I mean, if Nurse-Sekera can be an improvement on Nurse-Russell. I agree that Sekera isn’t ideal either).

    Basically I’m unsure about every step of the process. That Russell can be dumped cleanly to one of his choice destinations, that a FA replacement (improvement) can be found for similar money and term, and failing that if a trade for a replacement (improvement) is worth the asset cost.

    For me, knowing if Nurse-Sekera is actually a better option is key. It informs all of the potential decisions above. And for that matter, if Nurse-Sekera looks good, you don’t need to worry as much about whether a replacement is available if a Russell move is possible.

    I agree that trying a Nurse/Sekera pairing is something that really needs to happen for a solid stretch this year. I’m not convinced it will. The coach has spoken glowingly in the past about the Nurse/Russell pairing and hasn’t strayed from them at all since Russell got back from injury.

    I’m also not enthused about Sekera on his off side in the 2nd pairing (due to previous issues with Nurse – top pairing minutes in Nurse’s rookie year so this is different, I acknowledge) – I really want Sekera anchoring an elite 3rd pairing and mentoring the rookie(s) that will see plenty of time – even if Benning is 3RD out of camp – injuries will happen.

    I think Myers is going to be too expensive so I’ve disregarded him as an option.

    I do think that AAV/Cap Hit for Stralman will fall in the range but, no, as much as I would like it, I don’t see him signing with the OIlers. The Lightning are going to have cap issues so I can see him leaving but, what are the chances the Oilers get him without an overpay which cannot be an option. I also think that term can be an issue – I want two years, could maybe stretch to 3 – I’m going to guess he’ll want longer.

    Trading Russell without a deal in place to acquire the 2RD is certainly a risk – I hear you there.

    I do think that Russell can be traded in the realm of teams would be interested – we may need to retain like $500K which would be disappointing but I think there would be interest – of course, we only have a third of the league to deal with unless he chooses to expand – which he may.

  129. YKOil says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    I agree with your main points. Nurse gets zoomed by McDavid and Drai and half of his points are secondary assists (good catch)
    ..snip..
    Personally, if he continues his development and turns out to be a slightly overpaid $5.5 million top 4 defensemen, Im quite happy about that.

    On an 8 year I would probably be fine with that. Against the market the value would show in years 4-8 imo.

  130. theDjdj says:

    Glovjuice: Leon is not playing better than Crosby, McDavid, Kucherov, Kane, and Ovechkin I can assure all here of that.

    I’d put him in front of Ovechkin and in the same tier as Kane. Kucherov’s totals are enormous but you have to wonder how much of his production is a product of the team and QOC etc etc

  131. OriginalPouzar says:

    Glovjuice: Leon is not playing better than Crosby, McDavid, Kucherov, Kane, and Ovechkin I can assure all here of that.

    Ovechkin is the greatest goal scorer of all time – I’ll throw that out there.

    How has his 34 seconds of PK time this season impacted the game? How about the faceoffs he’s won?

    Not sure his 5 more goals and 6 less points makes up for the fact that Drai is materially better in pretty much every other area of the game.

    Ya, Leon is playing better than Ovie right now and, yup, he’s playing better than McDavid too. Kucherov isn’t going supernova right now like he was 3 weeks ago. Kane is.

    I stand by my statement!

  132. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ryan: Over the years, we’ve seen plenty of straw man arguments here, but it’s been awhile since we had a Stralman argument.

    He’ll be 33 for the start of next season. I’d maybe do two years, but no longer. Doubt we sign him.

    Faulk has one year left on his contract, so the price to acquire him will continue to drop.

    All I want from Stralman is two year – nothing more. Stop gap to allow internal development.

    I don’t think he signs here either.

  133. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Andy Dufresne: His GF% is great. His +- is great. He is physical for his size. Whats not to like?

    Is he a modern style D?Maybe, the numbers seem to say so.

    But he doesnt look like the other Medium to Small Dmen we typically call modern style D. He not a great skater, hes not a great passer, he dosent post offenisve numbers that other modern style dmen do.

    But the numbers show we score more goals when he’s on the ice than goals scored against us. And yet he doesnt seem to get the goals and assists that would/shoud normally accompany those stats.

    So what is it? Is he heavily sheltered? (not really) Does he get more ozone starts? (not sure)Is he given the better D partners? (doesnt appear to be)

    Hes an enigma wrapped in a riddle.He’s a meaner more physical Justin Schultz without the offense.

    To me if his possession and GF% remains solid, is he not a good puck mover?

    Or is what we see a reflection of a larger issue? Such as that the Oilers have 3 good forwards and a bunch that struggle with game to game play? That they’ve had a very thin D corp since 06.

    It is no mystery that Sekera boosts everyone. He’s a very good NHL player. PC saw him as a 2 pair, but coaches use him as 1 pair when he’s healthy because he’s very good in all disciplines. Subtle players are very often undervalued.

    Like Stralman was (too old now), and what made Lidstrom fantastic with no obvious advantage – light, not fast, never hit, never angry, ran the ice in Sweden and the NHL. Played until old because healthy. Referring to Lidstrom here.

    This goes directly to the org’s desire for banging and shot blocking. These things are good, but not as the end game.

    In actuality they never have been teh centre of great or good players. They are lesser aspects of what good players do – get the puck and make a good play with it.. There are very few Potvins ever in the league that are highly skilled, violent, offensive and defensive.

    Thinking along those lines is chasing mythical beasts. There just aren’t many players that dominate every aspect of the game. The Oilers finally got Lucic, and it shows the flaw in understanding hockey.

    Skill, skating, assertiveness and energy. Same as it’s always been.

  134. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    JimmyV1965: If we manage to somehow sign Stralman or Myers it’s because of an overpay.I find it hard to believe either of those guys are signing here for two or three years.I doubt Myers signs for less than six and Stralman for less than four. To bring them here would be even longer term.

    Stralman is a legit top 4 Dman and can be the 2nd Dman on a top pair.

    Myers has struggled above 3rd pair for 3+ years now.

    Stralman is 33 this summer, that’s the bogey with him.

  135. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Andy Dufresne: I appreciate that you have qualified the results by stating its the best we have right now.

    But can you help me understand kinda of conceptually or otherwise, how Price,Gibson, Rinne, Murray, Dubnyk and Fluery are all in the bottom half of the list?

    Is it as simple as saying they are really good goalies who are having off years?
    or
    really good goalies who are only average or slightly above average in the regular season?
    or
    really good goalies whose teams are playing below average ths year?
    or
    something else?

    Please and Thank You.

    Those goalies are in the bottom half of everyone who is a positive GSAA

    There is another 30 goalies who are below average.

    Those guys have histories of being elite via GSAA, but not this year.

    All goalies are streaky.

    Gibson led this list until he got hurt this year.

    The results I posted was basically “all the good goalies this year”

  136. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Glovjuice: It corrects by generally removing the competition factor as most players generally play against like quality/wage players.

    The fact that best generally play vs best doesn’t remove the QoC factor.

    That’s the reason QoC is confounding.

  137. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Jethro Tull: Hmmmm……pretty sure I didn’t ask for the definition. And I know that as ‘Offset’.

    My question was what is the inherent correction factor in +/-.

    Relative Goal share works well as a correction factor.

    It’s shows “how much better/worse is the player’s GF% compared to his team mates’

    Then you have to account for QoT (quality of team mate) and QoC (quality of competition)

    QoT is, by far, the most confounding factor as everyone is better with better line mates.

  138. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Maoriduvpoojt: Yohann Auvitu +4 / 59.09% or to get to over the 600 minute criteria and add his time in NJ (a horrible team with a GF GA differential of -61 goals) he was: +5/58.5%
    Damn McClellan, there was massive value there.

    Auvitu got “a ton” of OTF (on the fly) shifts with 97 where the puck was already moving to the ozone.

    It’s the main reason 3rd pairing Dmen tend to have very good results. They get very advantageous shifts more than the top 4.

    We plan to eventually add OTF to puckiq (WoodMoney site)

    We’re getting closer to re-launch with 5 years of data (including this year)

  139. jp says:

    Maoriduvpoojt:

    Thanks for the feedback!My point was that Nurse is not an offensive Dman, but my fear is he will get paid like one based on the offense that he is posting.My point is the offense is not a product of his offensive acumen, it is a by-product of his many minutes with elite offense drivers due to the non-existent D depth.

    If he racks up 40 pts this season my fear is his ask will be in the $6-7 million range when it should be IMO at about $5.5.million….

    That being said Kudos to him for taking advantage of the opportunity, streaky as his production has been.

    FWIW, over the past 2 season’s the forwards Nurse has spent the most TOI with are:
    McDavid
    Draisaitl
    Nuge
    Lucic
    Kassian
    Puljujarvi
    Khaira
    Strome
    Caggiula
    Maroon

    The Oilers forwards in total TOI over the same span are:
    McDavid
    Draisaitl
    Lucic
    Nuge
    Kassian
    Puljujarvi
    Khaira
    Strome
    Caggiula
    Maroon

    I don’t think he’s played disproportionately with McDavid/Draisaitl. (this is from Natural Stat Trick).

    Also, Dmen score a lot of their points by 2nd assists.

    In the past 2 yrs 2nd assists have accounted for 43% of Nurse’s 5 on 5 points. League wide the average (among D with >1000 minutes) is 41%. Among the top 60 5 on 5 points/60 guys (Nurse is 55th of 60 in this group) the average is 39%. So Nurse has gotten a shade more of his point by 2nd assist than average, but not by much.

    I think Nurse has come by his points honestly. I do however agree that his PP time and production is very vulnerable to being taken by others going forward.

  140. Maoriduvpoojt says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Auvitu got “a ton” of OTF (on the fly) shifts with 97 where the puck was already moving to the ozone.

    I know, I watched him pretty closely. But he was damn good at moving that puck and then joining the rush. He was also better defensively than most gave him credit for.

    Oh well. Heres hoping our up and coming RHD phenoms become close to what we expect/hope they can become….

  141. Maoriduvpoojt says:

    jp: FWIW, over the past 2 season’s the forwards Nurse has spent the most TOI with are:
    McDavid
    Draisaitl
    Nuge
    Lucic
    Kassian
    Puljujarvi
    Khaira
    Strome
    Caggiula
    Maroon

    The Oilers forwards in total TOI over the same span are:
    McDavid
    Draisaitl
    Lucic
    Nuge
    Kassian
    Puljujarvi
    Khaira
    Strome
    Caggiula
    Maroon

    I don’t think he’s played disproportionately with McDavid/Draisaitl. (this is from Natural Stat Trick).

    Also, Dmen score a lot of their points by 2nd assists.

    In the past 2 yrs 2nd assists have accounted for 43% of Nurse’s 5 on 5 points. League wide the average (among D with >1000 minutes) is 41%. Among the top 60 5 on 5 points/60 guys (Nurse is 55th of 60 in this group) the average is 39%. So Nurse has gotten a shade more of his point by 2nd assist than average, but not by much.

    I think Nurse has come by his points honestly. I do however agree that his PP time and production is very vulnerable to being taken by others going forward.

    Thanks for this!

  142. Maoriduvpoojt says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    We plan to eventually add OTF to puckiq (WoodMoney site)

    We’re getting closer to re-launch with 5 years of data (including this year)

    I look forward to seeing this.

    Great work sir! All my best to G as well.

  143. theDjdj says:

    Damn Nashville couldn’t get it done against Minnesota. Neither could Calgary

  144. Numenius says:

    Ray:
    Terry Jones just made a comment on Twitter that Ralph Kruger would make a good GM, they should actually bring him in as POHO …

    Then still bring in a Hunter or McCrimmon as GM.

    Then all the old boys that need to be can be fired over Skype by the new boss

    Would love to see Krueger as POHO or GM. I finally wouldn’t have misgivings about who was in charge.

  145. OriginalPouzar says:

    How do I read QoT and QoC stats – I mean, what does a QoT of 25.7% mean?

  146. deardylan says:

    Jethro Tull: Is this her?

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_Báthory

    Fascinating Game of JE THROnes. Not sure it good to bathe the countess draculass way , she only lived until 60 something? And reading the the wiki bio of her downfall not sure if those accusations were the truth.

  147. OriginalPouzar says:

    theDjdj:
    Damn Nashville couldn’t get it done against Minnesota. Neither could Calgary

    They did hold the Wild to a single point.

  148. Jethro Tull says:

    deardylan: Fascinating Game of JE THROnes. Not sure it good to bathe the countess draculass way , she only lived until 60 something? And reading the the wiki bio of her downfall not sure if those accusations were the truth.

    It was the middle ages. Charismatic women of power were clearly witches/vampires and/or werewolves. Especially id they had a shit load of land and riches you wanted.

    But did she weigh the same as a duck?

  149. Wilde says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Auvitu got “a ton” of OTF (on the fly) shifts with 97 where the puck was already moving to the ozone.

    I will not stand for this Yohann Auvitu slander.

    (jk)

    But really, to me the reason he had value was because he killed those minutes the hardest.

    I think a ton of teams, even relatively smart ones, seem to be satisfied with /whether or not/ their sheltered players exploit soft shift-type opportunities for offense instead of putting it on a sliding scale and trying to max that out.

  150. Wilde says:

    I’m having a really tough time with the 2RD hard target search. Anyone else here?

    Radko Gudas is PDOing, it sucks.

    I have him and whomever Hynes hates the most between Severson and Vatanen. Budget options Tim Heed and MacKenzie Weegar.

  151. jp says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Auvitu got “a ton” of OTF (on the fly) shifts with 97 where the puck was already moving to the ozone.

    It’s the main reason 3rd pairing Dmen tend to have very good results.They get very advantageous shifts more than the top 4.

    We plan to eventually add OTF to puckiq (WoodMoney site)

    We’re getting closer to re-launch with 5 years of data (including this year)

    Do you really think OTF starts make that much of a difference though? Maybe I should re-read Dellow’s article, but I recall being underwhelmed by the effect size he showed originally.

    Looking at NST, in 17-18 Auvitu was tied for 5th among 613 players, and was 1st among 224 Dmen (>400 minutes) with a 3.69 GF/60. (For context the median number for D was 2.34 GF/60)

    Among the D he had the 19th most OTF/60. And you’re right, that group is populated by 3rd pairing Dmen. But only one guy ahead of him was on ice for 3 GF/60 and only 6 of 18 were on ice for league “average” 2.34 GF/60. Lots of OTF starts don’t necessarily equate with inflated scoring rates (in fact, at least in that small group, it seems to be the opposite).

    As for who that OTF time was coming with, well I have no idea. But overall the forwards he spent the most time with were:
    Strome
    McDavid
    Lucic
    Draisaitl
    Khaira
    Kassian

    Vs. Oilers TOI leaders:
    McDavid
    Draisaitl
    Lucic
    Strome
    Nuge
    Maroon

    So on the surface it looks like he was getting less time with McDavid/Draisaitl than his fellow D. I feel like we should give the man kudos for doing something fairly impressive (though whether he’d have been able to keep it up is another question).

    All that said, exciting to hear about the WoodMoney re-launch and new data coming. Looking forward to it.

  152. Glovjuice says:

    Ten 45 goal seasons. Amazing.

  153. jp says:

    Wilde:
    I’m having a really tough time with the 2RD hard target search. Anyone else here?

    Radko Gudas is PDOing, it sucks.

    I have him and whomever Hynes hates the most between Severson and Vatanen. Budget options Tim Heed and MacKenzie Weegar.

    Not a lot out there is there.

    Heed and Weegar are definitely look interesting since they’d be cheap. But they’re so unproven you couldn’t pencil them in above 3rd pair. And with all the prospect D coming it’s hard to see the Oilers offering them a contract.

    The other 3 all look decent. A mixed bag of results for each. But I still wonder whether the upgrade they’d provide over Russell/Sekera at 2RD would be worth the cost. If you can move Russell FOR them then sure. But if you’re able to dispose of Russell’s contract, are these guys worth a 2nd rounder for difference? I guess both NJ guys will cost more than that too.

  154. Wilde says:

    jp: Not a lot out there is there.

    Heed and Weegar are definitely look interesting since they’d be cheap. But they’re so unproven you couldn’t pencil them in above 3rd pair. And with all the prospect D coming it’s hard to see the Oilers offering them a contract.

    The other 3 all look decent. A mixed bag of results for each. But I still wonder whether the upgrade they’d provide over Russell/Sekera at 2RD would be worth the cost. If you can move Russell FOR them then sure. But if you’re able to dispose of Russell’s contract, are these guys worth a 2nd rounder for difference? I guess both NJ guys will cost more than that too.

    Yeah the utility of the budget option is when you’re going down a road where you’re looking to radically improve the forward corps and take the Toronto gambit.

    Think trading the first, Nurse, double offer sheeting, bigger free agents, that type of thing.

    (Obviously cleanup like Gagner, Manning, Brodiak demoted and Russell+Kassian out should be a part of every summer)

  155. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    A couple RHD targets I’ve seen offered here before are still interesting… one would be a cheap cap hit but unproven, the other a natural fit stylistically, good cap hit and costly to acquire.

    VOR likes Roland McKeown, WG has often mentioned Chris Tanev.

  156. jp says:

    Wilde: Yeah the utility of the budget option is when you’re going down a road where you’re looking to radically improve the forward corps and take the Toronto gambit.

    Think trading the first, Nurse, double offer sheeting, bigger free agents, that type of thing.

    (Obviously cleanup like Gagner, Manning, Brodiak demoted and Russell+Kassian out should be a part of every summer)

    Yeah those two do look like good bets to provide a return on investment.

    I’m not optimistic about seeing either in Edmonton though.

  157. Wilde says:

    I forgot about the Carolina thing.

    I wonder what kind of package gets you Pesce without moving Nuge. Can you?

  158. Wilde says:

    jp: Yeah those two do look like good bets to provide a return on investment.

    I’m not optimistic about seeing them in Edmonton though.

    You mean in the sense that Edmonton won’t Get Good in the brain, or the players literally won’t come here?

  159. jp says:

    Wilde: You mean in the sense that Edmonton won’t Get Good in the brain, or the players literally won’t come here?

    No no, the good in the brain part lol

  160. Jaxon says:

    Maoriduvpoojt: my issue is that I strongly believe that his offensive numbers are being seriously inflated by McDavid and Draisaitl.

    Klefbom averages 12 minutes per night with McDavid to Nurse’s 9:45, all situations and 8:14 to 7:14 at 5v5. That’s 13.8% more 5v5 ice time per game with McDavid than Nurse. Why isn’t Klefbom outscoring Nurse by a bunch. It’s the opposite. Nurse has .98 5v5 pts /60 to Klefbom’s .58 5v5 pts/60. That’s not even close, almost double. And Klefbom doesn’t have to pay with Russell, he gets Larsson.

    You don’t think the top scoring D around the league are benefitting from playing with elite forwards? Carlson with Ovechkin, Kuznetsov, Backstrom. Hedman with Kucherov, Stamkos, Point. Giordano with Gaudreau, Monahan, Lindholm. Klingberg with Benn, Seguin, Radulov. Doughty with Kopitar, Brown last year. Josi with Johansen, Forsberg, Arvidsson, not to mention Ellis as his partner. Letang with Crosby, Malkin. Burns and now Karlsson with Couture, Pavelski, Thornton, Meier. Pietrangelo with Tarasenko, Schenn, O’Rielly, Schwartz. Rielly (and Gardiner) with Matthews, Marner, Tavares, Nylander, Kapanen, Johnsson.

    I don’t think their fans are saying those guys would be better on the 3rd pair. Or they should trade them before they get too expensive. Or that paying them $6M is too much. And again, Nurse just turned 24. There’s still room to improve. I don’t think Chara or Buyfuglien had much production in their 22 and 23 year old seasons.

    As fans, we’ve been bemoaning the fact that we don’t have an offensive D for the past 5 or more years, yet when we have one that is producing at a top 11 level in the league (at 5v5 over last 159 games) we can’t let ourselves appreciate it or take it at face value. We’re our own worst enemy.

    Also, Nurse’s Corsi% goes up by over 8% when he’s away from Russell from about 46 to 54. That’s significant.

  161. JimmyV1965 says:

    Jaxon: Klefbom averages 12 minutes per night with McDavid to Nurse’s 9:45, all situations and 8:14 to 7:14 at 5v5. That’s 13.8% more 5v5 ice time per game with McDavid than Nurse. Why isn’t Klefbom outscoring Nurse by a bunch. It’s the opposite. Nurse has .98 5v5 pts /60 to Klefbom’s .58 5v5 pts/60. That’s not even close, almost double. And Klefbom doesn’t have to pay with Russell, he gets Larsson.

    You don’t think the top scoring D around the league are benefitting from playing with elite forwards? Carlson with Ovechkin, Kuznetsov, Backstrom. Hedman with Kucherov, Stamkos, Point. Giordano with Gaudreau, Monahan, Lindholm. Klingberg with Benn, Seguin, Radulov. Doughty with Kopitar, Brown last year. Josi with Johansen, Forsberg, Arvidsson, not to mention Ellis as his partner. Letang with Crosby, Malkin. Burns and now Karlsson with Couture, Pavelski, Thornton, Meier. Pietrangelo with Tarasenko, Schenn, O’Rielly, Schwartz. Rielly (and Gardiner) with Matthews, Marner, Tavares, Nylander, Kapanen, Johnsson.

    I don’t think their fans are saying those guys would be better on the 3rd pair. Or they should trade them before they get too expensive. Or that paying them $6M is too much. And again, Nurse just turned 24. There’s still room to improve. I don’t think Chara or Buyfuglien had much production in their 22 and 23 year old seasons.

    As fans, we’ve been bemoaning the fact that we don’t have an offensive D for the past 5 or more years, yet when we have one that is producing at a top 11 level in the league we can’t let ourselves appreciate it or take it at face value. We’re our own worst enemy.

    Also, Nurse’s Corsi% goes up by over 8% when he’s away from Russell from about 46 to 54. That’s significant.

    Nice post

  162. Jaxon says:

    Going to put this out there again. Would anyone trade Bouchard for Parayko? Would Edmonton have to throw much in with him to get Parayko? I believe he was on the block before the deadline, but also that was back when STL was sucking. Now that they’re winning, maybe he’s no longer bait this summer. I think if throw in McLeod if it got the job done. I don’t think McLeod has the skill to make any impact so his value may have already peaked. He wasn’t a high scorer last year and he hasn’t improved this year. I wasn’t a big fan of the pick.

  163. OriginalPouzar says:

    Parayko would be a fantastic fit on this team – he’s more than just the 2-year stop gap acquisition until Bouchard is ready for the top 4 (assuming he gets there). I guess if Bouchard is the acquisition cost then that’s fine.

    We do lose offensive potential and lower that ceiling. Bouchard may never be as good as Parayko, on the other hand, we may end up better with his offensive IQ, puck moving and offensive zone abilities.

    Not to mention (a) losing two expansion draft exempt assets and adding a must-protect and (b) cap space – that’s $5.5M in (I think) and $0 out.

    At some point this team will need some value contracts filling out the lineup.

    Not saying not just saying its a tough trade to say yes to.

  164. Maoriduvpoojt says:

    Wilde:
    I’m having a really tough time with the 2RD hard target search. Anyone else here?

    Radko Gudas is PDOing, it sucks.

    I have him and whomever Hynes hates the most between Severson and Vatanen. Budget options Tim Heed and MacKenzie Weegar.

    Before the Larsson aquisition Severson for me was the target, not sure about him as a 2RD though, I had him pegged as a future 1RD, which he is not. Weegar is interesting, but Heed has all kinds of offensive potential, plus SWEDISH!!!

  165. Maoriduvpoojt says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    A couple RHD targets I’ve seen offered here before are still interesting… one would be a cheap cap hit but unproven, the other a natural fit stylistically, good cap hit and costly to acquire.

    VOR likes Roland McKeown, WG has often mentioned Chris Tanev.

    Tanev is such a beat-up player, he might give you a 60 game season, so I wouldn’t count on him.

    Wilde:
    I forgot about the Carolina thing.

    I wonder what kind of package gets you Pesce without moving Nuge. Can you?

    I’ve thought a Nurse + Kassian + a 5th for Pesce + Foegele + a 3rd would do it. Nurse and Kass satisfy the toughness itch that Dundun(?) verbalized last year. And with Nurse’s point totals it puts him at a greater value than Pesce IMO, despite the long-term value contract.

  166. Maoriduvpoojt says:

    Jaxon: Klefbom averages 12 minutes per night with McDavid to Nurse’s 9:45, all situations and 8:14 to 7:14 at 5v5. That’s 13.8% more 5v5 ice time per game with McDavid than Nurse. Why isn’t Klefbom outscoring Nurse by a bunch. It’s the opposite. Nurse has .98 5v5 pts /60 to Klefbom’s .58 5v5 pts/60. That’s not even close, almost double. And Klefbom doesn’t have to pay with Russell, he gets Larsson.

    You don’t think the top scoring D around the league are benefitting from playing with elite forwards? Carlson with Ovechkin, Kuznetsov, Backstrom. Hedman with Kucherov, Stamkos, Point. Giordano with Gaudreau, Monahan, Lindholm. Klingberg with Benn, Seguin, Radulov. Doughty with Kopitar, Brown last year. Josi with Johansen, Forsberg, Arvidsson, not to mention Ellis as his partner. Letang with Crosby, Malkin. Burns and now Karlsson with Couture, Pavelski, Thornton, Meier. Pietrangelo with Tarasenko, Schenn, O’Rielly, Schwartz. Rielly (and Gardiner) with Matthews, Marner, Tavares, Nylander, Kapanen, Johnsson.

    I don’t think their fans are saying those guys would be better on the 3rd pair. Or they should trade them before they get too expensive. Or that paying them $6M is too much. And again, Nurse just turned 24. There’s still room to improve. I don’t think Chara or Buyfuglien had much production in their 22 and 23 year old seasons.

    As fans, we’ve been bemoaning the fact that we don’t have an offensive D for the past 5 or more years, yet when we have one that is producing at a top 11 level in the league (at 5v5 over last 159 games) we can’t let ourselves appreciate it or take it at face value. We’re our own worst enemy.

    Also, Nurse’s Corsi% goes up by over 8% when he’s away from Russell from about 46 to 54. That’s significant.

    I know, you make extremely valid points, but eye test tells me that Klefbom is better at moving the puck. Nurse is an elite skater and I think that helps him a bunch. The streakiness part of his point accumulation is also interesting to me. If he becomes a more consistent point producer, that would be crazy.

    I LIKE Nurse, my concern is FUTURE COST based on his numbers which my brain and eyes have convinced me are too damn high. He is not Seth Jones, but he could be Ryan Mcdonagh, which is pretty damn good.

    He has proven me wrong and he will likely prove me wrong again, because he will only continue to get better…nice “problem” to have….

  167. OriginalPouzar says:

    We can look at all sorts of advances metrics and situations that we want to – time on ice with 29/97, amount of primary vs. secondary points, points accumulated due to elite skating as opposed to offensive skill, time on ice bump due to injury, etc.

    Sure, all those points and metrics have validity and make sense, however, at the end of the day, the sample size of production for Nurse has simply become too big to discount. It was the entirety of last year at even strength plus this year at even strength. He finally got some PP time this year due to Klef’s injury and, again while he doesn’t look like a great PP guy out there, his production is decent and trumps the rates of any other d-man including Klefbom’s rates during the elite PP of late 2016/17.

    100% I agree that Nurse’s production seems to be higher than his offensive talent, however, he simply keeps producing and, if he continues to produce, well, then he will (and should) get paid.

    If he’s a top 20 5 on 5 producer each and every year, are we going to complain about it because he doesn’t look like he should produce too much or be happy that we have a guy that can produce at top pairing rates?

    I mean, if he does it, yet again, next year, yes, he’ll get paid but that will be three seasons in a row and, well, that’s real.

  168. Andy Dufresne says:

    theDjdj: I’d put him in front of Ovechkin and in the same tier as Kane. Kucherov’s totals are enormous but you have to wonder how much of his production is a product of the team and QOC etc etc

    Kucherov 31 goals…….Draisaitl 40 goals

    Kutcherov on the best team in the NHL…….Draisaitl…..not so much….

  169. Bulging Twine says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yaremchuk posts links to all the Lowetide segments on his twitter feed – I’m sure it would be fairly easy to find.Let me know if you want me to find it for you..

    I’m not sure you want to know my hourly rate though….

    Hahah thanks OP. I’ll see if i can find it

  170. Bulging Twine says:

    JimmyV1965: I couldn’t find the original post so I’ll just add this info to yours. TSN makes podcast of virtually all its shows. LTs rant is the first segment Thursday. It starts almost right away.

    Thankyou

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca