That’s Entertainment

by Lowetide

Yesterday the Edmonton Oilers played the team’s most satisfying game of the year. No passengers, outstanding performances up and down the lineup, and an easy win against a good hockey team expected to push into the playoffs. Ken Hitchcock was clearly pleased, and he is absolutely looking for a run. Hitch: “We have the most home games of anybody when we come back, which is substantial. We’re five points out and we’re in a really good spot mentally.”

THE ATHLETIC

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group. Outstanding offer is here.

  • New Lowetide: The career destination for Oilers phenom Jesse Puljujarvi remains unknown.
  • New Jonathan Willis: Learning from a flawed argument I made about Leon Draisaitl in 2016.
  • Black Dog Pat: How the Oilers can emerge from the Bob Pulford-like era they’re stuck in.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers given harsh lesson by Leafs as playoff hopes on life support.
  • Lowetide: The Oilers’ deadline decisions inform what may come in spring and summer
  • Jonathan Willis: From Mikko Koskinen to Bakersfield, the next two months will reveal a lot about the Oilers
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: After bringing in Sam Gagner and shipping out Cam Talbot, Oilers stand pat on deadline day.
  • Jonathan Willis: Jesse Puljujarvi needs a fresh start, but there’s no reason it can’t be in Edmonton
  • Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers and the OHL.
  • Lowetide: Are the 2018-19 Bakersfield Condors the best Edmonton Oilers affiliate ever?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘One of the best hockey games ever’: An oral history of the 2014 women’s Olympic gold-medal game.
  • Lowetide: How can the Oilers successfully sell the new regime to a fan base that is openly angry?
  • Jonathan Willis: Edmonton’s trade for Sam Gagner is a gamble well worth making.
  • Jonathan Willis: Inside the success of the Bakersfield Condors, and what it means for Edmonton
  • Lowetide: The Oilers sure have a lot of problems, but there is a simple solution.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Keith Gretzky on the Oilers trade deadline plan, Andrej Sekera’s return and Jesse Puljujarvi’s season
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ potential roster upheaval might set a record for summer activity
  • Lowetide: It’s time for Oilers owner Daryl Katz to stand and deliver a winning organization.
  • Jonathan Willis: An Oilers blueprint for the 2019 NHL free agency period
  • Lowetide: Edmonton’s 2019 entry draft plans may change with new GM but needs are clear
  • Lowetide: Complete Oilers top 20 prospects, Winter 2018

OILERS AFTER 65

  • Oilers in 2015: 24-34-7, 55 points; goal differential -32
  • Oilers in 2016: 35-22-8, 78 points; goal differential +13
  • Oilers in 2017: 27-34-4, 58 points; goal differential -38
  • Oilers in 2018: 28-30-7, 63 points; goal differential -22

Edmonton is 4-1-2 in its last seven games, a duplication in the next seven games could get this team within four points of a playoff position with 10 games left in the campaign. Insane. Miles to go, but the small chance remains.

OILERS IN MARCH

  • Oilers in March 2016: 1-0-0, two points; goal differential +1
  • Oilers in March 2017: 1-0-0, two points; goal differential +1
  • Oilers in March 2018: 0-1-0, zero points; goal differential -2
  • Oilers in March 2019: 1-0-0, two points; goal differential +4

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM MARCH

  • On the road to: Columbus, Buffalo (Expected 0-1-1) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • At home to: Vancouver, Toronto, NY Rangers, Minnesota (Expected 2-1-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: Arizona, Vegas, St. Louis (Expected: 0-2-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Columbus, Ottawa, Los Angeles, Dallas, Anaheim (Expected: 3-1-1) (Actual)
  • Overall expected result: 5-5-4, 14 points in 14 games
  • Current results: 1-0-0, two points in one game

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

  • Sekera-Benning were 5-6 in 12:49, 5-2 shots, no goals and 2-1 HDSC. I like this pairing very much, keep wondering when Hitch will give them some more of the Nurse-Russell minutes. Faced Dzingel-Duchene-Bjorkstrand, going 4-4 in 6:36. Solid.
  • Klefbom-Larsson went 17-24 in 20:27, a massive amount of icetime. Were 10-13 shots, 1-0 goals and 2-2 HDSC. Were 12-6 in 8:19 against Panarin-Dubois-Atkinson, but 5-10 in 5:28 against Foligno-Jenner-Anderson. Jackets have depth.
  • Nurse-Russell were 8-20 in 17:37, 5-10 shots, 2-0 goals and 2-0 HDSC. Nurse had a couple of splendid backchecks on 10-bell chances, textbook defending without taking a penalty. Impressive. Were 2-5 in 5:39 against Dzingel-Duchene-Bjorkstrand.
  • McDavid played most with the Sekera pair (9:40), followed by Nurse pair (six minutes) and then Klef duo (4:22).
  • Mikko Koskinen stopped all 30 shots, now owns a .911 save percentage.
  • NaturalStatTrick and NHL.com.

FORWARDS, LAST NIGHT

  • Draisaitl-McDavid-Kassian were 11-11 in 15:42, 6-7 shots, 1-0 goals and 3-1 HDSC. 29-97 basically scored with four different wingers in tow, freaky how it all turned out. Leon was a force, from his cherry passes to the goal, and then his breakway shorthanded where he basically skated past everyone. McDavid’s creativity was on display all day, just a ridiculous talent.
  • Lucic-Nuge-Chiasson went 9-9 in 12:12, 6-4 shots, no goals and 0-3 HDSC. You’d like a little more skill on this line, but they sawed off the opposition and CBJ is a good team.
  • Rieder-Cave-Currie were 5-11 in 8:30, 3-6 shots no goals or HDSC. Two guys who are just underway in the NHL form a No. 3 line on the day and deliver reasonable results (remember, score effects would have been in play for basically half the game).
  • Gagner-Brodziak-Rattie went 1-7 in 5:52, 1-4 shots, no goals or HDSC. Again, you’d like better offense. Brodziak was 5-6 in the dot.

THE SHIFT

  • Darryl Sutter: “The big thing in today’s game is you have to be able forecheck and backcheck, and you have to have the puck. You can’t give the puck up. We don’t play in our zone, so there’s not much defending.  I’ve coached in three decades now and this stuff where they said Marian had to play in Jacques’s system is a bunch of bull-crap. The game’s changed. They think there’s defending in today’s game. Nah, it’s how much you have the puck. Teams that play around in their own zone think they’re defending but they’re generally getting scored on or taking face-offs and they need a goalie to stand on his head if that’s the way they play.”

“The Shift” included a turnover at the CBJ blueline, a downed soldier (Kassian) that allowed the eventual goal scorer on the ice, and passing that ranged from deft to brilliant. Over 90 seconds according to my friend Bruce McCurdy, concluding with two of the best passes you’re ever going to see plus a nice finish by Josh Currie.

MIKKO KOSKINEN

Mikko Koskinen showing up in a positive place. I’m not defending the contract but he has had success in the NHL this season. He has a .926 save percentage 5-on-5 in his last 10 games.

CONDORS

Won again last night, the train keeps rolling. I’ll have an article up today at The Athletic about the best goal-scoring Condors and which of the current forwards may eventually find NHL work on a regular basis.

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Bulging Twine

JimmyV1965: I couldn’t find the original post so I’ll just add this info to yours. TSN makes podcast of virtually all its shows. LTs rant is the first segment Thursday. It starts almost right away.

Thankyou

Bulging Twine

OriginalPouzar: Yaremchuk posts links to all the Lowetide segments on his twitter feed – I’m sure it would be fairly easy to find.Let me know if you want me to find it for you..

I’m not sure you want to know my hourly rate though….

Hahah thanks OP. I’ll see if i can find it

Andy Dufresne

theDjdj: I’d put him in front of Ovechkin and in the same tier as Kane. Kucherov’s totals are enormous but you have to wonder how much of his production is a product of the team and QOC etc etc

Kucherov 31 goals…….Draisaitl 40 goals

Kutcherov on the best team in the NHL…….Draisaitl…..not so much….

OriginalPouzar

We can look at all sorts of advances metrics and situations that we want to – time on ice with 29/97, amount of primary vs. secondary points, points accumulated due to elite skating as opposed to offensive skill, time on ice bump due to injury, etc.

Sure, all those points and metrics have validity and make sense, however, at the end of the day, the sample size of production for Nurse has simply become too big to discount. It was the entirety of last year at even strength plus this year at even strength. He finally got some PP time this year due to Klef’s injury and, again while he doesn’t look like a great PP guy out there, his production is decent and trumps the rates of any other d-man including Klefbom’s rates during the elite PP of late 2016/17.

100% I agree that Nurse’s production seems to be higher than his offensive talent, however, he simply keeps producing and, if he continues to produce, well, then he will (and should) get paid.

If he’s a top 20 5 on 5 producer each and every year, are we going to complain about it because he doesn’t look like he should produce too much or be happy that we have a guy that can produce at top pairing rates?

I mean, if he does it, yet again, next year, yes, he’ll get paid but that will be three seasons in a row and, well, that’s real.

€√¥£€^$

Jaxon: Klefbom averages 12 minutes per night with McDavid to Nurse’s 9:45, all situations and 8:14 to 7:14 at 5v5. That’s 13.8% more 5v5 ice time per game with McDavid than Nurse. Why isn’t Klefbom outscoring Nurse by a bunch. It’s the opposite. Nurse has .98 5v5 pts /60 to Klefbom’s .58 5v5 pts/60. That’s not even close, almost double. And Klefbom doesn’t have to pay with Russell, he gets Larsson.

You don’t think the top scoring D around the league are benefitting from playing with elite forwards? Carlson with Ovechkin, Kuznetsov, Backstrom. Hedman with Kucherov, Stamkos, Point. Giordano with Gaudreau, Monahan, Lindholm. Klingberg with Benn, Seguin, Radulov. Doughty with Kopitar, Brown last year. Josi with Johansen, Forsberg, Arvidsson, not to mention Ellis as his partner. Letang with Crosby, Malkin. Burns and now Karlsson with Couture, Pavelski, Thornton, Meier. Pietrangelo with Tarasenko, Schenn, O’Rielly, Schwartz. Rielly (and Gardiner) with Matthews, Marner, Tavares, Nylander, Kapanen, Johnsson.

I don’t think their fans are saying those guys would be better on the 3rd pair. Or they should trade them before they get too expensive. Or that paying them $6M is too much. And again, Nurse just turned 24. There’s still room to improve. I don’t think Chara or Buyfuglien had much production in their 22 and 23 year old seasons.

As fans, we’ve been bemoaning the fact that we don’t have an offensive D for the past 5 or more years, yet when we have one that is producing at a top 11 level in the league (at 5v5 over last 159 games) we can’t let ourselves appreciate it or take it at face value. We’re our own worst enemy.

Also, Nurse’s Corsi% goes up by over 8% when he’s away from Russell from about 46 to 54. That’s significant.

I know, you make extremely valid points, but eye test tells me that Klefbom is better at moving the puck. Nurse is an elite skater and I think that helps him a bunch. The streakiness part of his point accumulation is also interesting to me. If he becomes a more consistent point producer, that would be crazy.

I LIKE Nurse, my concern is FUTURE COST based on his numbers which my brain and eyes have convinced me are too damn high. He is not Seth Jones, but he could be Ryan Mcdonagh, which is pretty damn good.

He has proven me wrong and he will likely prove me wrong again, because he will only continue to get better…nice “problem” to have….

€√¥£€^$

BornInAGretzkyJersey:
A couple RHD targets I’ve seen offered here before are still interesting… one would be a cheap cap hit but unproven, the other a natural fit stylistically, good cap hit and costly to acquire.

VOR likes Roland McKeown, WG has often mentioned Chris Tanev.

Tanev is such a beat-up player, he might give you a 60 game season, so I wouldn’t count on him.

Wilde:
I forgot about the Carolina thing.

I wonder what kind of package gets you Pesce without moving Nuge. Can you?

I’ve thought a Nurse + Kassian + a 5th for Pesce + Foegele + a 3rd would do it. Nurse and Kass satisfy the toughness itch that Dundun(?) verbalized last year. And with Nurse’s point totals it puts him at a greater value than Pesce IMO, despite the long-term value contract.

€√¥£€^$

Wilde:
I’m having a really tough time with the 2RD hard target search. Anyone else here?

Radko Gudas is PDOing, it sucks.

I have him and whomever Hynes hates the most between Severson and Vatanen. Budget options Tim Heed and MacKenzie Weegar.

Before the Larsson aquisition Severson for me was the target, not sure about him as a 2RD though, I had him pegged as a future 1RD, which he is not. Weegar is interesting, but Heed has all kinds of offensive potential, plus SWEDISH!!!

OriginalPouzar

Parayko would be a fantastic fit on this team – he’s more than just the 2-year stop gap acquisition until Bouchard is ready for the top 4 (assuming he gets there). I guess if Bouchard is the acquisition cost then that’s fine.

We do lose offensive potential and lower that ceiling. Bouchard may never be as good as Parayko, on the other hand, we may end up better with his offensive IQ, puck moving and offensive zone abilities.

Not to mention (a) losing two expansion draft exempt assets and adding a must-protect and (b) cap space – that’s $5.5M in (I think) and $0 out.

At some point this team will need some value contracts filling out the lineup.

Not saying not just saying its a tough trade to say yes to.

Jaxon

Going to put this out there again. Would anyone trade Bouchard for Parayko? Would Edmonton have to throw much in with him to get Parayko? I believe he was on the block before the deadline, but also that was back when STL was sucking. Now that they’re winning, maybe he’s no longer bait this summer. I think if throw in McLeod if it got the job done. I don’t think McLeod has the skill to make any impact so his value may have already peaked. He wasn’t a high scorer last year and he hasn’t improved this year. I wasn’t a big fan of the pick.

JimmyV1965

Jaxon: Klefbom averages 12 minutes per night with McDavid to Nurse’s 9:45, all situations and 8:14 to 7:14 at 5v5. That’s 13.8% more 5v5 ice time per game with McDavid than Nurse. Why isn’t Klefbom outscoring Nurse by a bunch. It’s the opposite. Nurse has .98 5v5 pts /60 to Klefbom’s .58 5v5 pts/60. That’s not even close, almost double. And Klefbom doesn’t have to pay with Russell, he gets Larsson.

You don’t think the top scoring D around the league are benefitting from playing with elite forwards? Carlson with Ovechkin, Kuznetsov, Backstrom. Hedman with Kucherov, Stamkos, Point. Giordano with Gaudreau, Monahan, Lindholm. Klingberg with Benn, Seguin, Radulov. Doughty with Kopitar, Brown last year. Josi with Johansen, Forsberg, Arvidsson, not to mention Ellis as his partner. Letang with Crosby, Malkin. Burns and now Karlsson with Couture, Pavelski, Thornton, Meier. Pietrangelo with Tarasenko, Schenn, O’Rielly, Schwartz. Rielly (and Gardiner) with Matthews, Marner, Tavares, Nylander, Kapanen, Johnsson.

I don’t think their fans are saying those guys would be better on the 3rd pair. Or they should trade them before they get too expensive. Or that paying them $6M is too much. And again, Nurse just turned 24. There’s still room to improve. I don’t think Chara or Buyfuglien had much production in their 22 and 23 year old seasons.

As fans, we’ve been bemoaning the fact that we don’t have an offensive D for the past 5 or more years, yet when we have one that is producing at a top 11 level in the league we can’t let ourselves appreciate it or take it at face value. We’re our own worst enemy.

Also, Nurse’s Corsi% goes up by over 8% when he’s away from Russell from about 46 to 54. That’s significant.

Nice post

Jaxon

Maoriduvpoojt: my issue is that I strongly believe that his offensive numbers are being seriously inflated by McDavid and Draisaitl.

Klefbom averages 12 minutes per night with McDavid to Nurse’s 9:45, all situations and 8:14 to 7:14 at 5v5. That’s 13.8% more 5v5 ice time per game with McDavid than Nurse. Why isn’t Klefbom outscoring Nurse by a bunch. It’s the opposite. Nurse has .98 5v5 pts /60 to Klefbom’s .58 5v5 pts/60. That’s not even close, almost double. And Klefbom doesn’t have to pay with Russell, he gets Larsson.

You don’t think the top scoring D around the league are benefitting from playing with elite forwards? Carlson with Ovechkin, Kuznetsov, Backstrom. Hedman with Kucherov, Stamkos, Point. Giordano with Gaudreau, Monahan, Lindholm. Klingberg with Benn, Seguin, Radulov. Doughty with Kopitar, Brown last year. Josi with Johansen, Forsberg, Arvidsson, not to mention Ellis as his partner. Letang with Crosby, Malkin. Burns and now Karlsson with Couture, Pavelski, Thornton, Meier. Pietrangelo with Tarasenko, Schenn, O’Rielly, Schwartz. Rielly (and Gardiner) with Matthews, Marner, Tavares, Nylander, Kapanen, Johnsson.

I don’t think their fans are saying those guys would be better on the 3rd pair. Or they should trade them before they get too expensive. Or that paying them $6M is too much. And again, Nurse just turned 24. There’s still room to improve. I don’t think Chara or Buyfuglien had much production in their 22 and 23 year old seasons.

As fans, we’ve been bemoaning the fact that we don’t have an offensive D for the past 5 or more years, yet when we have one that is producing at a top 11 level in the league (at 5v5 over last 159 games) we can’t let ourselves appreciate it or take it at face value. We’re our own worst enemy.

Also, Nurse’s Corsi% goes up by over 8% when he’s away from Russell from about 46 to 54. That’s significant.

jp

Wilde: You mean in the sense that Edmonton won’t Get Good in the brain, or the players literally won’t come here?

No no, the good in the brain part lol

Wilde

jp: Yeah those two do look like good bets to provide a return on investment.

I’m not optimistic about seeing them in Edmonton though.

You mean in the sense that Edmonton won’t Get Good in the brain, or the players literally won’t come here?

Wilde

I forgot about the Carolina thing.

I wonder what kind of package gets you Pesce without moving Nuge. Can you?

jp

Wilde: Yeah the utility of the budget option is when you’re going down a road where you’re looking to radically improve the forward corps and take the Toronto gambit.

Think trading the first, Nurse, double offer sheeting, bigger free agents, that type of thing.

(Obviously cleanup like Gagner, Manning, Brodiak demoted and Russell+Kassian out should be a part of every summer)

Yeah those two do look like good bets to provide a return on investment.

I’m not optimistic about seeing either in Edmonton though.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

A couple RHD targets I’ve seen offered here before are still interesting… one would be a cheap cap hit but unproven, the other a natural fit stylistically, good cap hit and costly to acquire.

VOR likes Roland McKeown, WG has often mentioned Chris Tanev.

Wilde

jp: Not a lot out there is there.

Heed and Weegar are definitely look interesting since they’d be cheap. But they’re so unproven you couldn’t pencil them in above 3rd pair. And with all the prospect D coming it’s hard to see the Oilers offering them a contract.

The other 3 all look decent. A mixed bag of results for each. But I still wonder whether the upgrade they’d provide over Russell/Sekera at 2RD would be worth the cost. If you can move Russell FOR them then sure. But if you’re able to dispose of Russell’s contract, are these guys worth a 2nd rounder for difference? I guess both NJ guys will cost more than that too.

Yeah the utility of the budget option is when you’re going down a road where you’re looking to radically improve the forward corps and take the Toronto gambit.

Think trading the first, Nurse, double offer sheeting, bigger free agents, that type of thing.

(Obviously cleanup like Gagner, Manning, Brodiak demoted and Russell+Kassian out should be a part of every summer)

jp

Wilde:
I’m having a really tough time with the 2RD hard target search. Anyone else here?

Radko Gudas is PDOing, it sucks.

I have him and whomever Hynes hates the most between Severson and Vatanen. Budget options Tim Heed and MacKenzie Weegar.

Not a lot out there is there.

Heed and Weegar are definitely look interesting since they’d be cheap. But they’re so unproven you couldn’t pencil them in above 3rd pair. And with all the prospect D coming it’s hard to see the Oilers offering them a contract.

The other 3 all look decent. A mixed bag of results for each. But I still wonder whether the upgrade they’d provide over Russell/Sekera at 2RD would be worth the cost. If you can move Russell FOR them then sure. But if you’re able to dispose of Russell’s contract, are these guys worth a 2nd rounder for difference? I guess both NJ guys will cost more than that too.

Glovjuice

Ten 45 goal seasons. Amazing.

jp

Woodguy v2.0: Auvitu got “a ton” of OTF (on the fly) shifts with 97 where the puck was already moving to the ozone.

It’s the main reason 3rd pairing Dmen tend to have very good results.They get very advantageous shifts more than the top 4.

We plan to eventually add OTF to puckiq (WoodMoney site)

We’re getting closer to re-launch with 5 years of data (including this year)

Do you really think OTF starts make that much of a difference though? Maybe I should re-read Dellow’s article, but I recall being underwhelmed by the effect size he showed originally.

Looking at NST, in 17-18 Auvitu was tied for 5th among 613 players, and was 1st among 224 Dmen (>400 minutes) with a 3.69 GF/60. (For context the median number for D was 2.34 GF/60)

Among the D he had the 19th most OTF/60. And you’re right, that group is populated by 3rd pairing Dmen. But only one guy ahead of him was on ice for 3 GF/60 and only 6 of 18 were on ice for league “average” 2.34 GF/60. Lots of OTF starts don’t necessarily equate with inflated scoring rates (in fact, at least in that small group, it seems to be the opposite).

As for who that OTF time was coming with, well I have no idea. But overall the forwards he spent the most time with were:
Strome
McDavid
Lucic
Draisaitl
Khaira
Kassian

Vs. Oilers TOI leaders:
McDavid
Draisaitl
Lucic
Strome
Nuge
Maroon

So on the surface it looks like he was getting less time with McDavid/Draisaitl than his fellow D. I feel like we should give the man kudos for doing something fairly impressive (though whether he’d have been able to keep it up is another question).

All that said, exciting to hear about the WoodMoney re-launch and new data coming. Looking forward to it.

Wilde

I’m having a really tough time with the 2RD hard target search. Anyone else here?

Radko Gudas is PDOing, it sucks.

I have him and whomever Hynes hates the most between Severson and Vatanen. Budget options Tim Heed and MacKenzie Weegar.

Wilde

Woodguy v2.0: Auvitu got “a ton” of OTF (on the fly) shifts with 97 where the puck was already moving to the ozone.

I will not stand for this Yohann Auvitu slander.

(jk)

But really, to me the reason he had value was because he killed those minutes the hardest.

I think a ton of teams, even relatively smart ones, seem to be satisfied with /whether or not/ their sheltered players exploit soft shift-type opportunities for offense instead of putting it on a sliding scale and trying to max that out.

Jethro Tull

deardylan: Fascinating Game of JE THROnes. Not sure it good to bathe the countess draculass way , she only lived until 60 something? And reading the the wiki bio of her downfall not sure if those accusations were the truth.

It was the middle ages. Charismatic women of power were clearly witches/vampires and/or werewolves. Especially id they had a shit load of land and riches you wanted.

But did she weigh the same as a duck?

OriginalPouzar

theDjdj:
Damn Nashville couldn’t get it done against Minnesota. Neither could Calgary

They did hold the Wild to a single point.

Tesla's Hair

Jethro Tull: Is this her?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_Báthory

Fascinating Game of JE THROnes. Not sure it good to bathe the countess draculass way , she only lived until 60 something? And reading the the wiki bio of her downfall not sure if those accusations were the truth.

OriginalPouzar

How do I read QoT and QoC stats – I mean, what does a QoT of 25.7% mean?

Numenius

Ray:
Terry Jones just made a comment on Twitter that Ralph Kruger would make a good GM, they should actually bring him in as POHO …

Then still bring in a Hunter or McCrimmon as GM.

Then all the old boys that need to be can be fired over Skype by the new boss

Would love to see Krueger as POHO or GM. I finally wouldn’t have misgivings about who was in charge.

theDjdj

Damn Nashville couldn’t get it done against Minnesota. Neither could Calgary

€√¥£€^$

Woodguy v2.0:
We plan to eventually add OTF to puckiq (WoodMoney site)

We’re getting closer to re-launch with 5 years of data (including this year)

I look forward to seeing this.

Great work sir! All my best to G as well.

€√¥£€^$

jp: FWIW, over the past 2 season’s the forwards Nurse has spent the most TOI with are:
McDavid
Draisaitl
Nuge
Lucic
Kassian
Puljujarvi
Khaira
Strome
Caggiula
Maroon

The Oilers forwards in total TOI over the same span are:
McDavid
Draisaitl
Lucic
Nuge
Kassian
Puljujarvi
Khaira
Strome
Caggiula
Maroon

I don’t think he’s played disproportionately with McDavid/Draisaitl. (this is from Natural Stat Trick).

Also, Dmen score a lot of their points by 2nd assists.

In the past 2 yrs 2nd assists have accounted for 43% of Nurse’s 5 on 5 points. League wide the average (among D with >1000 minutes) is 41%. Among the top 60 5 on 5 points/60 guys (Nurse is 55th of 60 in this group) the average is 39%. So Nurse has gotten a shade more of his point by 2nd assist than average, but not by much.

I think Nurse has come by his points honestly. I do however agree that his PP time and production is very vulnerable to being taken by others going forward.

Thanks for this!

€√¥£€^$

Woodguy v2.0: Auvitu got “a ton” of OTF (on the fly) shifts with 97 where the puck was already moving to the ozone.

I know, I watched him pretty closely. But he was damn good at moving that puck and then joining the rush. He was also better defensively than most gave him credit for.

Oh well. Heres hoping our up and coming RHD phenoms become close to what we expect/hope they can become….

jp

Maoriduvpoojt:

Thanks for the feedback!My point was that Nurse is not an offensive Dman, but my fear is he will get paid like one based on the offense that he is posting.My point is the offense is not a product of his offensive acumen, it is a by-product of his many minutes with elite offense drivers due to the non-existent D depth.

If he racks up 40 pts this season my fear is his ask will be in the $6-7 million range when it should be IMO at about $5.5.million….

That being said Kudos to him for taking advantage of the opportunity, streaky as his production has been.

FWIW, over the past 2 season’s the forwards Nurse has spent the most TOI with are:
McDavid
Draisaitl
Nuge
Lucic
Kassian
Puljujarvi
Khaira
Strome
Caggiula
Maroon

The Oilers forwards in total TOI over the same span are:
McDavid
Draisaitl
Lucic
Nuge
Kassian
Puljujarvi
Khaira
Strome
Caggiula
Maroon

I don’t think he’s played disproportionately with McDavid/Draisaitl. (this is from Natural Stat Trick).

Also, Dmen score a lot of their points by 2nd assists.

In the past 2 yrs 2nd assists have accounted for 43% of Nurse’s 5 on 5 points. League wide the average (among D with >1000 minutes) is 41%. Among the top 60 5 on 5 points/60 guys (Nurse is 55th of 60 in this group) the average is 39%. So Nurse has gotten a shade more of his point by 2nd assist than average, but not by much.

I think Nurse has come by his points honestly. I do however agree that his PP time and production is very vulnerable to being taken by others going forward.

Woodguy v2.0

Maoriduvpoojt: Yohann Auvitu +4 / 59.09% or to get to over the 600 minute criteria and add his time in NJ (a horrible team with a GF GA differential of -61 goals) he was: +5/58.5%
Damn McClellan, there was massive value there.

Auvitu got “a ton” of OTF (on the fly) shifts with 97 where the puck was already moving to the ozone.

It’s the main reason 3rd pairing Dmen tend to have very good results. They get very advantageous shifts more than the top 4.

We plan to eventually add OTF to puckiq (WoodMoney site)

We’re getting closer to re-launch with 5 years of data (including this year)

Woodguy v2.0

Jethro Tull: Hmmmm……pretty sure I didn’t ask for the definition. And I know that as ‘Offset’.

My question was what is the inherent correction factor in +/-.

Relative Goal share works well as a correction factor.

It’s shows “how much better/worse is the player’s GF% compared to his team mates’

Then you have to account for QoT (quality of team mate) and QoC (quality of competition)

QoT is, by far, the most confounding factor as everyone is better with better line mates.

Woodguy v2.0

Glovjuice: It corrects by generally removing the competition factor as most players generally play against like quality/wage players.

The fact that best generally play vs best doesn’t remove the QoC factor.

That’s the reason QoC is confounding.

Woodguy v2.0

Andy Dufresne: I appreciate that you have qualified the results by stating its the best we have right now.

But can you help me understand kinda of conceptually or otherwise, how Price,Gibson, Rinne, Murray, Dubnyk and Fluery are all in the bottom half of the list?

Is it as simple as saying they are really good goalies who are having off years?
or
really good goalies who are only average or slightly above average in the regular season?
or
really good goalies whose teams are playing below average ths year?
or
something else?

Please and Thank You.

Those goalies are in the bottom half of everyone who is a positive GSAA

There is another 30 goalies who are below average.

Those guys have histories of being elite via GSAA, but not this year.

All goalies are streaky.

Gibson led this list until he got hurt this year.

The results I posted was basically “all the good goalies this year”

Woodguy v2.0

JimmyV1965: If we manage to somehow sign Stralman or Myers it’s because of an overpay.I find it hard to believe either of those guys are signing here for two or three years.I doubt Myers signs for less than six and Stralman for less than four. To bring them here would be even longer term.

Stralman is a legit top 4 Dman and can be the 2nd Dman on a top pair.

Myers has struggled above 3rd pair for 3+ years now.

Stralman is 33 this summer, that’s the bogey with him.

Scungilli Slushy

Andy Dufresne: His GF% is great. His +- is great. He is physical for his size. Whats not to like?

Is he a modern style D?Maybe, the numbers seem to say so.

But he doesnt look like the other Medium to Small Dmen we typically call modern style D. He not a great skater, hes not a great passer, he dosent post offenisve numbers that other modern style dmen do.

But the numbers show we score more goals when he’s on the ice than goals scored against us. And yet he doesnt seem to get the goals and assists that would/shoud normally accompany those stats.

So what is it? Is he heavily sheltered? (not really) Does he get more ozone starts? (not sure)Is he given the better D partners? (doesnt appear to be)

Hes an enigma wrapped in a riddle.He’s a meaner more physical Justin Schultz without the offense.

To me if his possession and GF% remains solid, is he not a good puck mover?

Or is what we see a reflection of a larger issue? Such as that the Oilers have 3 good forwards and a bunch that struggle with game to game play? That they’ve had a very thin D corp since 06.

It is no mystery that Sekera boosts everyone. He’s a very good NHL player. PC saw him as a 2 pair, but coaches use him as 1 pair when he’s healthy because he’s very good in all disciplines. Subtle players are very often undervalued.

Like Stralman was (too old now), and what made Lidstrom fantastic with no obvious advantage – light, not fast, never hit, never angry, ran the ice in Sweden and the NHL. Played until old because healthy. Referring to Lidstrom here.

This goes directly to the org’s desire for banging and shot blocking. These things are good, but not as the end game.

In actuality they never have been teh centre of great or good players. They are lesser aspects of what good players do – get the puck and make a good play with it.. There are very few Potvins ever in the league that are highly skilled, violent, offensive and defensive.

Thinking along those lines is chasing mythical beasts. There just aren’t many players that dominate every aspect of the game. The Oilers finally got Lucic, and it shows the flaw in understanding hockey.

Skill, skating, assertiveness and energy. Same as it’s always been.

OriginalPouzar

Ryan: Over the years, we’ve seen plenty of straw man arguments here, but it’s been awhile since we had a Stralman argument.

He’ll be 33 for the start of next season. I’d maybe do two years, but no longer. Doubt we sign him.

Faulk has one year left on his contract, so the price to acquire him will continue to drop.

All I want from Stralman is two year – nothing more. Stop gap to allow internal development.

I don’t think he signs here either.

OriginalPouzar

Glovjuice: Leon is not playing better than Crosby, McDavid, Kucherov, Kane, and Ovechkin I can assure all here of that.

Ovechkin is the greatest goal scorer of all time – I’ll throw that out there.

How has his 34 seconds of PK time this season impacted the game? How about the faceoffs he’s won?

Not sure his 5 more goals and 6 less points makes up for the fact that Drai is materially better in pretty much every other area of the game.

Ya, Leon is playing better than Ovie right now and, yup, he’s playing better than McDavid too. Kucherov isn’t going supernova right now like he was 3 weeks ago. Kane is.

I stand by my statement!

theDjdj

Glovjuice: Leon is not playing better than Crosby, McDavid, Kucherov, Kane, and Ovechkin I can assure all here of that.

I’d put him in front of Ovechkin and in the same tier as Kane. Kucherov’s totals are enormous but you have to wonder how much of his production is a product of the team and QOC etc etc

YKOil

Andy Dufresne:
I agree with your main points. Nurse gets zoomed by McDavid and Drai and half of his points are secondary assists (good catch)
..snip..
Personally, if he continues his development and turns out to be a slightly overpaid $5.5 million top 4 defensemen, Im quite happy about that.

On an 8 year I would probably be fine with that. Against the market the value would show in years 4-8 imo.

OriginalPouzar

jp:
I really hope we get decent look at Nurse-Sekera (in whatever order) before the season’s done.

I’m all for a Russell for Stralman swap but a lot of things have to fall into place for that to happen.

Can we move Russell, considering his limited NTC?

If we do, will Stralman sign? This is a big one for me, the only FA options I can see that are plausible are Stralman and Myers. Are they going to sign for 4-5M for 2-3 yrs? Surely there will be other teams offering them similar money for longer than 2-3 yrs…

If Russell were moved and Stralman/Myers don’t sign, then a trade for a 2RD is an option. But that costs assets, which isn’t ideal while this team is unfortunately still building.

As much as I do think a 2RD upgrade is important, I wonder if muddling through with the current D for a bit longer is the right call. In particular if Sekera can “solve” the 2RD problem (by that I mean, if Nurse-Sekera can be an improvement on Nurse-Russell. I agree that Sekera isn’t ideal either).

Basically I’m unsure about every step of the process. That Russell can be dumped cleanly to one of his choice destinations, that a FA replacement (improvement) can be found for similar money and term, and failing that if a trade for a replacement (improvement) is worth the asset cost.

For me, knowing if Nurse-Sekera is actually a better option is key. It informs all of the potential decisions above. And for that matter, if Nurse-Sekera looks good, you don’t need to worry as much about whether a replacement is available if a Russell move is possible.

I agree that trying a Nurse/Sekera pairing is something that really needs to happen for a solid stretch this year. I’m not convinced it will. The coach has spoken glowingly in the past about the Nurse/Russell pairing and hasn’t strayed from them at all since Russell got back from injury.

I’m also not enthused about Sekera on his off side in the 2nd pairing (due to previous issues with Nurse – top pairing minutes in Nurse’s rookie year so this is different, I acknowledge) – I really want Sekera anchoring an elite 3rd pairing and mentoring the rookie(s) that will see plenty of time – even if Benning is 3RD out of camp – injuries will happen.

I think Myers is going to be too expensive so I’ve disregarded him as an option.

I do think that AAV/Cap Hit for Stralman will fall in the range but, no, as much as I would like it, I don’t see him signing with the OIlers. The Lightning are going to have cap issues so I can see him leaving but, what are the chances the Oilers get him without an overpay which cannot be an option. I also think that term can be an issue – I want two years, could maybe stretch to 3 – I’m going to guess he’ll want longer.

Trading Russell without a deal in place to acquire the 2RD is certainly a risk – I hear you there.

I do think that Russell can be traded in the realm of teams would be interested – we may need to retain like $500K which would be disappointing but I think there would be interest – of course, we only have a third of the league to deal with unless he chooses to expand – which he may.

jp

Ryan: Over the years, we’ve seen plenty of straw man arguments here, but it’s been awhile since we had a Stralman argument.

He’ll be 33 for the start of next season. I’d maybe do two years, but no longer. Doubt we sign him.

Faulk has one year left on his contract, so the price to acquire him will continue to drop.

Yeah, CapFriendly incorrectly lists him as 31, so I assumed he’d be 31/32 next year, didn’t check the actual DOB.

He’s had an off year this year too. Missed some time, so maybe injury related, but at 32.5 it’s that much closer to potentially being real age related decline. Agreed that more than 2 yrs would be very dangerous. And agreed he’s not likely coming to Edm.

Falk is interesting, his scoring hasn’t recovered since last year, but at least he’s not -20 this go around. I still wonder if his potential upside vs the incumbents is worth the asset cost, even if that’s not so steep.

€√¥£€^$

Andy Dufresne: Hi Maoriduvpoojt.I appreciate your hard work. I would have responded sooner but Im still trying to figure out how to pronounce your name ?

I agree with your main points. Nurse gets zoomed by McDavid and Drai and half of his points are secondary assists (good catch)

AND you are correct, dmen get paid for scoring points, so this is going to boost his contract ask.

Heres the other part you mentioned,

He is minute muncher/eater. He plays big minutes up and down the lineup. Thats also part of why he’s going to get paid.

He does not appear on most nights to be playing above his confidience level (snuck that one in there for my mathy friends).
Yes he takes a few too many penalties, and has a few gaffs on some nights.

Bottom Line: He is/was playing up in the order due to injuries fo other Dmen. No choice really.
He assumed the risk of signing a bridge contract, and the results of that so far are to his favor. Good on him!

The real test will come next year. Where does he play in a helathy lineup? Will he continue to get/earn PP1 time?That may come down to how well Klefbom starts the year and how healthy the D is.

I think your premise is that the team could have done a better job at surpressing his offensive numbers by playing lower in the lineup.Two things about that,1)injuries forced their hand and 2) most sports franchises arent in the habit of surpressing their assets for sake of cost savings/bargining position. They are more inclined to give their young stars room to develop and encourage thier development sometimes even by forcing them to play above thier estabished levels.

IMO the Oilers did the right thing with the Nurse bridge contract. They challenged him to prove who/what he is and to increase his offensive output. He took that bet and is so far winning that bet (even if there is a bit of lucky circumstance involved in that) They dont ask how, they ask how many.

If Nurse can remain on his current trajectory of big minutes and growing offensive production, He’s going to get paid….and the organization will be happy to do so.

Right now, given his age, his minutes, his scoring, his skating, and his physicality, he’s tracking towards the 5 to 6.5 million range. No one in the organization or on this site is hoping he regresses.

Personally, if he continues his development and turns out to be a slightly overpaid $5.5 million top 4 defensemen, Im quite happy about that.

Thanks again for your post. ?

FYI, Wilde reposted OP’s tweet of the Bakersfield line-up a few weeks ago and this is how Marody came out, and I thought it was hillarious so I changed my nick to this. Pronunciation is not important, the butchered spelling is the key, lol.

Thanks for the feedback! My point was that Nurse is not an offensive Dman, but my fear is he will get paid like one based on the offense that he is posting. My point is the offense is not a product of his offensive acumen, it is a by-product of his many minutes with elite offense drivers due to the non-existent D depth.

If he racks up 40 pts this season my fear is his ask will be in the $6-7 million range when it should be IMO at about $5.5.million….

That being said Kudos to him for taking advantage of the opportunity, streaky as his production has been.

Glovjuice

Andy Dufresne: Those are sarcasm tildes ~~~

Im with you my friend.

Simply not very nice.

smellyglove

Another testament to McDavid. A list of seasons (post-2005) of top even strength goal scorers:

http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?report=skatergoals&reportType=season&seasonFrom=20052006&seasonTo=20182019&gameType=2&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,30&sort=evGoals

That’s the top EVG seasons for the past 13 years. Mcdavid’s 2017-18 campaign, with 35 even strength goals, is good enough for #7.

Ryan

jp:
I really hope we get decent look at Nurse-Sekera (in whatever order) before the season’s done.

I’m all for a Russell for Stralman swap but a lot of things have to fall into place for that to happen.

Can we move Russell, considering his limited NTC?

If we do, will Stralman sign? This is a big one for me, the only FA options I can see that are plausible are Stralman and Myers. Are they going to sign for 4-5M for 2-3 yrs? Surely there will be other teams offering them similar money for longer than 2-3 yrs…

If Russell were moved and Stralman/Myers don’t sign, then a trade for a 2RD is an option. But that costs assets, which isn’t ideal while this team is unfortunately still building.

As much as I do think a 2RD upgrade is important, I wonder if muddling through with the current D for a bit longer is the right call. In particular if Sekera can “solve” the 2RD problem (by that I mean, if Nurse-Sekera can be an improvement on Nurse-Russell. I agree that Sekera isn’t ideal either).

Basically I’m unsure about every step of the process. That Russell can be dumped cleanly to one of his choice destinations, that a FA replacement (improvement) can be found for similar money and term, and failing that if a trade for a replacement (improvement) is worth the asset cost.

For me, knowing if Nurse-Sekera is actually a better option is key. It informs all of the potential decisions above. And for that matter, if Nurse-Sekera looks good, you don’t need to worry as much about whether a replacement is available if a Russell move is possible.

Over the years, we’ve seen plenty of straw man arguments here, but it’s been awhile since we had a Stralman argument.

He’ll be 33 for the start of next season. I’d maybe do two years, but no longer. Doubt we sign him.

Faulk has one year left on his contract, so the price to acquire him will continue to drop.

godot10

jp:
Benning keeps showing up at the top of those D summary boxes in LTs posts. Which made me think of something I looked at a while back.

The Oilers +/- leaders over the last 3 seasons:

McDavid 48
Benning 23
Maroon 18
Larsson 15
Nurse 5
(Russell 1)
(Sekera 0)
(Klefbom -7)

Pretty impressive considering all the grief Benning gets from some corners.

Third pairing D used properly are like backup quarterbacks, the most beloved player(s) on the team.

Andy Dufresne

Hairbag:
Andy Dufresne,

Lol a nickname from my youth when I had a healthy crop!

lol…….I once worked with a guy named Animal (no really…that was his name)……He looked liked Animal from the muppets….and had THE MOST loud uproarious laugh I have ever heard even to this day…..and he laughed alot…..I admired him for it. (the hair and the laugh)

I had three nicknames in my youth…..none of which I’d share with you…..and you post yours like a badge of honour….good on you my man!