A False Spring

The Edmonton Oilers club is beyond streaky this year, which is fine as long as the team doesn’t end on a downbeat. I don’t believe the playoffs are still possible but the impressive recent run is making the early days of March more interesting than usual. The Sabres must feel awful about chances missed last night but luck good and bad touches every team on the long road of an NHL season. Take the points, don’t look back.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group. Outstanding offer is here.

  • New Lowetide: Identifying Oilers roster needs reveals a familiar list
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How Leon Draisaitl has found ‘another level’ by matching offensive wizardry with sound positioning.
  • Lowetide: How many future NHL goal scorers are playing for the Bakersfield Condors this season?
  • Lowetide: The career destination for Oilers phenom Jesse Puljujarvi remains unknown.
  • Jonathan Willis: Learning from a flawed argument I made about Leon Draisaitl in 2016.
  • Black Dog Pat: How the Oilers can emerge from the Bob Pulford-like era they’re stuck in.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers given harsh lesson by Leafs as playoff hopes on life support.
  • Lowetide: The Oilers’ deadline decisions inform what may come in spring and summer
  • Jonathan Willis: From Mikko Koskinen to Bakersfield, the next two months will reveal a lot about the Oilers
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: After bringing in Sam Gagner and shipping out Cam Talbot, Oilers stand pat on deadline day.
  • Jonathan Willis: Jesse Puljujarvi needs a fresh start, but there’s no reason it can’t be in Edmonton
  • Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers and the OHL.
  • Lowetide: Are the 2018-19 Bakersfield Condors the best Edmonton Oilers affiliate ever?
  • Lowetide: How can the Oilers successfully sell the new regime to a fan base that is openly angry?
  • Jonathan Willis: Edmonton’s trade for Sam Gagner is a gamble well worth making.
  • Jonathan Willis: Inside the success of the Bakersfield Condors, and what it means for Edmonton
  • Lowetide: The Oilers sure have a lot of problems, but there is a simple solution.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Keith Gretzky on the Oilers trade deadline plan, Andrej Sekera’s return and Jesse Puljujarvi’s season
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ potential roster upheaval might set a record for summer activity
  • Lowetide: It’s time for Oilers owner Daryl Katz to stand and deliver a winning organization.
  • Jonathan Willis: An Oilers blueprint for the 2019 NHL free agency period
  • Lowetide: Edmonton’s 2019 entry draft plans may change with new GM but needs are clear
  • Lowetide: Complete Oilers top 20 prospects, Winter 2018

OILERS AFTER 66

  • Oilers in 2015: 25-34-7, 57 points; goal differential -28
  • Oilers in 2016: 35-23-8, 78 points; goal differential +11
  • Oilers in 2017: 28-34-4, 60 points; goal differential -37
  • Oilers in 2018: 29-30-7, 65 points; goal differential -21

Last year’s team finished 8-6-2 to complete the schedule 82, 36-40-6, 78 points. If this year’s Oilers repeat, the final tally will be 82, 37-36-9, 83 points. I believe that’s a reasonable projection, and I think we can agree the total will be shy of the playoffs this spring.

OILERS IN MARCH

  • Oilers in March 2016: 2-0-0, four points; goal differential +5
  • Oilers in March 2017: 1-1-0, two points; goal differential -1
  • Oilers in March 2018: 0-2-0, zero points; goal differential -3
  • Oilers in March 2019: 2-0-0, two points; goal differential +5

March has been very good so far, the two wins allowing Hitchcock to move his Oilers coaching record to 20-20-6.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM MARCH

  • On the road to: Columbus, Buffalo (Expected 0-1-1) (Actual 2-0-0)
  • At home to: Vancouver, Toronto, NY Rangers, Minnesota (Expected 2-1-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: Arizona, Vegas, St. Louis (Expected: 0-2-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Columbus, Ottawa, Los Angeles, Dallas, Anaheim (Expected: 3-1-1) (Actual)
  • Overall expected result: 5-5-4, 14 points in 14 games
  • Current results: 2-0-0, four points in two games

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

  • Nurse-Russell went 17-12 in 17:15, 10-8 shots, 2-1 goals and 3-3 HDSC. McDavid hung out with this duo for 11:43, and that was a big reason for the pairing’s success. Outlets must be sharper. Were 9-11 in 11:01 against Skinner-Eichel-Reinhart.
  • Klefbom-Larsson were 15-15 in 18:07, 10-9 shots, 1-1 goals and 2-6 HDSC. Spent 9:07 with the Draisaitl line, just 3:00 with the captain. Were 4-9 in 7:46 against Sheary-Rodrigues-Okposo. Larsson was playing pick up sticks on the Eichel goal and looked a day late and a dollar short early. Recovered later and then played a major part in the winning goal.
  • Sekera-Benning went 7-14 in 10:46, 5-6 shots, no goals and 1-2 HDSC. Low event and the puck was back and out often. Were 5-9 in 3:37 against Skinner-Eichel-Reinhart.
  • Mikko Koskinen stopped 35 of 38, .921. His save percentage for this season is now .911. Pominville’s gaffe was epic.
  • Natural Stat Trick and NHL.com.

FORWARDS, LAST NIGHT

  • Nuge-McDavid-Kassian were 7-10 in 8:55, 5-4 shots, 1-0 goals and 2-1 HDSC. The pass from 97 to Kassian for his goal was magic, and his pass to Leon shorthanded came after some brilliant footwork on the Nurse outlet pass. My goodness what a player.
  • Gagner-Draisaitl-Chiasson went 6-4 in 8:03, 5-2 shots, 1-0 goals, 1-0 HDSC. Leon was a bull tonight, Sabres had no answer for him (trading O’Reilly has changed the look of the team). Gagner showed good speed and a sense of the moment when he carried the puck out of danger late in a shift of defending, and had the wherewithal to drive to the net for a reasonable chance. Underrated moment of the game.
  • Draisaitl-McDavid-Kassian went 10-5 in 6:07, 5-5 shots and 0-1 goals, 1-2 HDSC. Great chem, not the results hoped for but this trio is a load. Kassian shot the puck from a bad angle, and it went right back for a GA, but his goal was a big part of the comeback.
  • Lucic-Nuge-Chiasson were 1-7 in 4:49, 0-3 shots and 0-2 HDSC. I think RNH was a strong player on the night, there were many cleanups required on the back check.
  • Rieder-Draisaitl-Chiasson went 3-7 in 3:55, 2-2 shots, no goals 1-1 HDSC.
  • Gagner-Brodziak-Rattie were 4-3 in 3:40, 2-2 shots, 0-1 goals and 1-2 HDSC.
  • Rieder-Cave-Currie went 0-1 in 3:37, 0-1 shots.
  • Lucic-Brodziak-Currie were 3-2 in 1:49, 3-2 shots, 1-0 goals and 1-0 HDSC.

The names being mentioned by the TSN Insiders are Kelly McCrimmon, Dave Nonis, Sean Burke, Mike Futa and Mark Hunter. George McPhee’s words about McCrimmon suggest Edmonton may look elsewhere, I remain convinced (and have stated) Keith Gretzky’s chances are solid to excellent.

I don’t think this is a fabulous list. Hockey Canada dominates and we’re looking at a large group of middle managers at the heart of this compilation. Mike Futa would probably be the best choice in the group, interesting interview with him is here. Everything’s coming up Gretzky so far.

OILERS SEASON BY NUMBERS

Forwards are listed by scoring at 5-on-5, defensemen Corsi 5-on-5 and goalies save percentage. Koskinen is now tied for No. 19 among goalies with 25 or more appearances.

We’re at a point where counting keepers for next season is a viable pastime, so I’ll list Koskinen, Klefbom, Larsson, Nurse, Sekera and Benning in goal and on the blue. Up front, McDavid, Leon, Nuge, Khaira are my keepers. That’s 10. You?

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, we’ve got the goods! TSN1260, scheduled to appear:

  • Jonathan Willis, Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal. We’ll chat about the recent run by the Oilers and the rumoured names for general manager.
  • Devin Heroux, CBC Curling Reporter. We’ll talk Brier.
  • Andrew Peard, Oil Kings PBP. Important to close out and get home advantage plus good travel early in the WHL playoffs.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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244 Responses to "A False Spring"

« Older Comments
  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    who:
    This is a terrible time to start winning hockey games. No way they make the playoffs so every win just sewers their draft position.
    I like watching them play well, like watching them get a few breaks, but I know each win is costly.
    Am I the only one who thinks like this?

    If the Oilers win 3 less games in 2015, McDavid is not an Oiler….

  2. Nit64 says:

    ArmchairGM: I’ll take that bet. What are the odds?

    If you want to bet on what OP meant, bet with him on that. Guaranteed loss night 😉

  3. OriginalPouzar says:

    OP is not allowed to gamble!

  4. Nit64 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    OP is not allowed to gamble!

    Oh but a bet on what YOU say YOU meant isn’t gambling. 😉

  5. Sierra says:

    innercitysmytty:
    Sierra,

    Was that an actual message from management or coaching or fan/media speculation? I haven’t seen an article referencing that so curious if you’ve seen something?

    People have posted it here

  6. leadfarmer says:

    Sierra: The message that Jesse’s injury stemmed from improper technique in the gym or too heavy of weights never made sense.

    No but if you have a bony outgrowth of your femoral neck that is banging against your labrum causing decreased motion and pain trying to max out your squats is not exactly in your best interest.

  7. Gerta Rauss says:

    Bad Seed: I gotta say that whenever I read one of your posts, it reminds me of the Jake Jarmel episode on Seinfeld!I don’t think I’ve ever seen a sentence ended without an exclamation mark!!!!No offence meant, just find it funny.

    Top o’ the muffin, TO YOU.!!

  8. innercitysmytty says:

    Sierra,

    Posted an actual article or their opinion? Not trying to give management a pass, but I also see lots of people stretch things on here to fit the narrative that management is shite. They don’t need any help with that, it’s a fact.

  9. Reja says:

    Glovjuice: LOL

    How’s the Leon bashing job going for you lately? I’ll bet it hasn’t been to lucrative.

  10. Reja says:

    North stars lose in a shootout.

  11. Glovjuice says:

    Bos8:
    Just a point on shortsighted Oiler prospect development.Benson and Lagesson and Puljujarvi The first two never got a sniff.One, reward them with some cash as in salary.Two, measure the development.Puljujarvi had a couple five games with Benson and got yo-hoed again to the big club.

    Lagesson backstopped all three D; Jones,Bear and Sekera – again no response.Instead Petrovic and Manning – Dom and Domber.Titanic chair rearranging.Lagesson was ready at Christmas – none so blind.

    Sekera saw it after two games.Why not have Sekera hold a coach’s minicamp for D in Bakersfield.I’m sure Manson could learn something.Never hurts to listen to a master at his craft.

    You can’t make this stuff up.Sins by Omission.

    I know; so funny. Yuk. LOL

  12. Scungilli Slushy says:

    who:
    This is a terrible time to start winning hockey games. No way they make the playoffs so every win just sewers their draft position.
    I like watching them play well, like watching them get a few breaks, but I know each win is costly.
    Am I the only one who thinks like this?

    No
    If you’re out lose big and get a difference maker

    A few wins now doesmake the team better next year or in the future

    Why they should have moved out non core for picks

    Gretzky showed he doesn’t understand the nature of the team or value of replacement level players

  13. Bulging Twine says:

    Reja:
    North stars lose in a shootout.

    Fiala is a competitive guy

  14. Glovjuice says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    You got something of value to add – if you disagree with something, I’d be happy to discuss it if you can do so without being condescending.

    Our team has a “couple of elite players I enjoy watching”. That’s very funny after a 15 year rebuild, man. You godda admit it. It’s like praise for a high school or community college play. And I just sat through a 3 hour off pitch Cinderella with a five year old for context. Yes, LOL, IS warranted.

  15. Glovjuice says:

    Reja: How’s the Leon bashing job going for you lately? I’ll bet it hasn’t been to lucrative.

    He has been fantastic. If he plays like this, he surpasses Kopitar (total flavour of the month contract by the way; along with Benn – the opposite of p Kane these contracts were) and may win a Selke some day. But, at the time of my earlier comments, he was very lazy/lax in the D zone and it impacted the season negatively.

  16. OriginalPouzar says:

    I am quite content to leave all the young prospects on the Condors continuing to develop as they have all year. Perhaps a reason why players like Benson and Lagesson are having success is that fact that they haven’t been yo-yoed up and down like Yamamoto and Puljujarvi have?

    Gretzky expressly told Benson about 2-3 weeks ago that he isn’t going to be called to the NHL this year – Benson has proceeded to go on a nice offensive heater – I wonder if the knowledge that conversation with Gretzky and the knowledge that he was simply going to stay in the AHL and can play his game has helped him?

    We talk about patience with the prospects – lets actually show it when the time comes which is now.

    Let them continue to develop – these are rookie and second year pro.

    Not to mention, the Oilers have two non-emergency call-ups permitted for the rest of the season.

  17. Bulging Twine says:

    Ryan Strome pushed a Dallas player onto Bishop then scurried behind two of his own players and buried his head behind the back of them.

  18. Bulging Twine says:

    COL penalty with 3:42 left. 2-2

  19. Bulging Twine says:

    Det scores. 3-2

  20. Bulging Twine says:

    Zadina “I bring the goals” first goal. He can’t stop smiling.

    Bylsma sighting. On the bench with Detroit

  21. Bulging Twine says:

    crap COL scores 3-3

  22. Bulging Twine says:

    OT

  23. Bulging Twine says:

    ARI big loss at home

  24. just sayin says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Gillis POHO
    Gillman GM
    Barnes AGM
    Gretzky AGM
    Mehta Head of Hockey Analytics
    Dellow – Analytics Special projects (working under Mehta)

    Please no Gillis. I was a Canucks fan. Luongo/Schneider fiasco turned into Eddie Lack. Keith Ballard, Mats Sundin, John Tortorella. Many overpaid, underperforming players. Reminds me of Peter Chiarelli. Hiring him would turn me back into a Canucks fan.

  25. Bulging Twine says:

    COL in OT

  26. Reja says:

    Glovjuice: He has been fantastic.If he plays like this, he surpasses Kopitar (total flavour of the month contract by the way; along with Benn – the opposite of p Kane these contracts were) and may win a Selke some day. But, at the time of my earlier comments, he was very lazy/lax in the D zone and it impacted the season negatively.

    He’s been good to great all year every player has a few bad games here and there even Bobby Orr. You remind me of my teenage daughter one week rocky road ice-cream is the best ever in two weeks it’s cookie dough and rocky road sucks then it’s on to strawberry lol

  27. Glovjuice says:

    Reja: He’s been good to great all year every player has a few bad games here and there even Bobby Orr. You remind me of my teenage daughter one week rocky road ice-cream is the best ever in two weeks it’s cookie dough and rocky road sucks then it’s on to strawberry lol

    Well, ok then. No point me arguing my point any more. I simply think Drai has been very average defensively effort wise until about 10 games ago. I was one of them once and, trust me, they don’t appreciate your attitude.

  28. Reja says:

    Glovjuice: Well, ok then. No point me arguing my point any more.I simply think Drai has been very average defensively effort wise until about 10 games ago.I was one of them once and, trust me, they don’t appreciate your attitude.

    Leon is only 23 he’s only gonna get better as a two way player the older he gets.You seriously aren’t blaming the invisable secondary scoring and first shot goals on Leon. Thank you for the stern advice I’ll go back to the drawing board again.

  29. Ivan says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Have you BEEN to Toranna? How about Murder City? Chicago ain’t balmy either, Minny? Calgary? The Peg?
    Lots of cold competition.

  30. OriginalPouzar says:

    Condors back in action tonight against SJ – a dominating performance by the Condors against the Baracuda on Saturday – led by the kids – this time they are on the road looking to repeat.

  31. Jaxon says:

    OriginalPouzar: You would dump Sekera over Russell if a 2RD was acquired?

    If we are talking about keeping D-prospects, I would be remiss if William Lagesson wasn’t added – he is going to play alot of games in the NHL and he’s going to be a fan favorite – a new age defensive d-man who is mobile, can skate and move the puck.

    Ahhhh, I see the confusion. By highlighting Sekera and not Russell, it seems like I want to get rid of Sekera over Russell. Not at all, I think getting rid of Russell should be a given, a priority. I was hoping they would have asked him to waive his clause for the trade deadline.

    Good point about Lagesson. I haven’t seen him as much as you, so I’ll defer to your call on that. Persson may also warrant consideration for keeping.

    Bouchard is the one D If consider trading for the right package. I think he has enough perceived upside to fetch a decent return. And that perception may be higher than his eventual value. There is a chance he doesn’t even become a full-time NHLer (let’s say an off chance). There have been many high scoring high drafted D who didn’t make it, especially ones with skating concerns (not that he had major skating issues but it was definitely not a strength at the time of the draft).

  32. ArmchairGM says:

    gogliano: So they didn’t gain on Minn. but they did make a race possible by gaining ground on others.

    No they didn’t. The only thing that matters is 8th place and how far the Oilers are from it. Whether the Oilers are 9th or 12th makes zero difference here. So if they were 6 points out of 8th 10 games ago and are 6 points out today, they have in fact LOST ground because they’ve burned daylight, i.e. they have just 14 games to make up 6 points whereas before they had 24 games to make up 6 points. The odds are getting longer, not shorter – despite what Vegas will tell you.

  33. Genjutsu says:

    Bag of Pucks: What if it turned out that Edmonton is just an undesirable place to live climate wise, so the organization will always be hamstrung in their ability to hire the best and brightest? Wouldn’t that be a kick in the junk?

    I know if I’m McCrimmon, I’d take Vegas over Edmonton 99 times out 100. Not everyone is swayed by money and power alone. Quality of life counts too.

    There is going to be an element of that to it and it’s not just climate. It’s the isolation more so I think.

    That means a horrendous travel schedule and limited options socially and entertainment wise.

    Like it or not it all adds up to a tremendous quality of life gap compared to other cities.

  34. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jaxon: Ahhhh, I see the confusion. By highlighting Sekera and not Russell, it seems like I want to get rid of Sekera over Russell. Not at all, I think getting rid of Russell should be a given, a priority. I was hoping they would have asked him to waive his clause for the trade deadline.

    Good point about Lagesson. I haven’t seen him as much as you, so I’ll defer to your call on that. Persson may also warrant consideration for keeping.

    Bouchard is the one D If consider trading for the right package. I think he has enough perceived upside to fetch a decent return. And that perception may be higher than his eventual value. There is a chance he doesn’t even become a full-time NHLer (let’s say an off chance). There have been many high scoring high drafted D who didn’t make it, especially ones with skating concerns (not that he had major skating issues but it was definitely not a strength at the time of the draft).

    Gotcha and, agreed, trading Russell needs to be a priority – and a clean disposition without retainment (or at least minimal retainment).

    I’m not overly surprised they didn’t ask him to waive or at least give them his 10 team list he is required to in the summer – given the two full years of term left, the chances of him moving at the deadline were minimal and, frankly, as much as we all agree he is the main disposal piece, doing so without the acquisition of a replacement player for 2RD would put ALOT of pressure on the current d-corps.

    I’m not sure I agree on Bouchard – of course, he is no sure bet for an NHL career but it would be highly surprising if he didn’t. Lets not forget, he isn’t just a high scoring d-man, his numbers in his draft year were bordering on generational. Given his skillset lines up with a hole this team has had since Jeff Petry left, I think his value to the team outweighs his trade potential.

    Lets also not forget: expansion draft exampt and ELC value contract implications.

  35. hunter1909 says:

    Genjutsu: There is going to be an element of that to it and it’s not just climate. It’s the isolation more so I think.
    That means a horrendous travel schedule and limited options socially and entertainment wise.
    Like it or not it all adds up to a tremendous quality of life gap compared to other cities.

    Once an Oilers All-Star jogged past me on the 105th street bridge running south as I ran north – he didn’t appear too isolated. This was in the 1980’s.

    Lowe+MacT’s rotten shitshow has been hiding behind the old Edmonton sucks(yes it does to sophisticated urban women) ever since they were getting regularly owned by Ken Hitchcock’s Dallas Stars.

    A 40 year old Glen Sather would run an Oilers management team with such a tight rein that it boggles the mind. Needless to say these Oilers would start winning under Slats, giving the Edmonton franchise something to attract players – a winning team culture and Hall of Fame level management.

    The players only live in town for 6-8 months a year, play hockey constantly when they are here and if anyone thinks healthy 19-25 year olds need much more than a watering hole to blow off steam at(that is, when they’re not having another road trip adventure) they probably never lived life when they were young.

    Nothing wrong with Edmonton if the team doesn’t rot like a dug up Romanian corpse.

  36. jp says:

    godot10: Going missing in action for the first half of the season is NOT earning your salary.

    As good as he looks now this is absolutely true. He was an utter non-factor for more than half of this season and most of last.

    He’s mentally engaged now but it won’t last.

    I have no issue keeping him. He has value. But he’ll be back to being less than the sum of his parts by next season. Probably sooner.

  37. Jethro Tull says:

    Scungilli Slushy: No
    If you’re out lose big and get a difference maker

    A few wins now doesmake the team better next year or in the future

    Why they should have moved out non core for picks

    Gretzky showed he doesn’t understand the nature of the team or value of replacement level players

    This is why we have to overpay.

    “Come to Edmonton. If anything goes wrong, we’ll crash us into an iceberg so we can have a better ship next year!”

    You aren’t going to attract talent with that attitude. Imagine turning up for work this morning. Boss calls a meeting:

    Boss: We lost profits in the last year. We’re firing 50% of the weakest of you. 25% now and the other 25% later. We need the other 25% to still turn up every day and produce.

    The superstars among you? Yeah, there’s no point this year in any more sales. But we need to convince coporate to release funds for new talented hires. We can’t do that unless we REALLY suck, so we’re going to ask you to not do so well. So don’t make any performance related bonuses so we can get some shiny new teenagers.

  38. russ99 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Gotcha and, agreed, trading Russell needs to be a priority – and a clean disposition without retainment (or at least minimal retainment).

    I’m not overly surprised they didn’t ask him to waive or at least give them his 10 team list he is required to in the summer – given the two full years of term left, the chances of him moving at the deadline were minimal and, frankly, as much as we all agree he is the main disposal piece, doing so without the acquisition of a replacement player for 2RD would put ALOT of pressure on the current d-corps.

    I’m not sure I agree on Bouchard – of course, he is no sure bet for an NHL career but it would be highly surprising if he didn’t. Lets not forget, he isn’t just a high scoring d-man, his numbers in his draft year were bordering on generational. Given his skillset lines up with a hole this team has had since Jeff Petry left, I think his value to the team outweighs his trade potential.

    Lets also not forget: expansion draft exampt and ELC value contract implications.

    As I posted on the Athletic yesterday, if we move Russell in the summer, another team will likely get a better return for him next deadline with his salary and bonuses going down to $2.5M in another summer.

    The only reason he wasn’t moved at the deadline is his NMC and wish to stay close to home. When his NMC loosens July 1st, there’s a much better chance of finding a match, and again NHL coaches and GMs value his player type even if many are obsessing over stretch passes here. The problem with moving him July 1st is that the market will be flooded with defensemen.

    IMO Sekera should be moved while he’s healthy. One more leg surgery and we’re stuck with another dead contract.

  39. Nit64 says:

    ArmchairGM: No they didn’t. The only thing that matters is 8th place and how far the Oilers are from it. Whether the Oilers are 9th or 12th makes zero difference here. So if they were 6 points out of 8th 10 games ago and are 6 points out today, they have in fact LOST ground because they’ve burned daylight, i.e. they have just 14 games to make up 6 points whereas before they had 24 games to make up 6 points. The odds are getting longer, not shorter – despite what Vegas will tell you.

    Nothing to do with Vegas odds. Probability depends on:

    – games left,
    – number of teams to pass
    – how far behind EACH team.

    You have a limited time to pass ALL the teams ahead of you. It’s a race between the benefits of being ahead of schedule catching up on 4 of the 5 vs. the shortening odds on catching the 5th.

    All of these factors go into the probability sim estimates . ODDly the Oils chances improved from very faint to faint over the win streak. Equally the chances can get worse very quickly with a few more wins by the 8th team and a few more losses by the Oilers.

  40. Bank Shot says:

    Oilers aren’t making the playoffs.

    It sure would be nice to see them win like 10 in a row and squeak in, but its not realistically going to happen.

    Even still I want to see them finish strong. Slumping and losing down the stretch isn’t good for anyone. Screw the higher pick. Keep trying to win.

  41. Nit64 says:

    Genjutsu: There is going to be an element of that to it and it’s not just climate. It’s the isolation more so I think.

    That means a horrendous travel schedule and limited options socially and entertainment wise.

    Like it or not it all adds up to a tremendous quality of life gap compared to other cities.

    ~ Amazing how many AGMs want to be GMs ~

  42. Nit64 says:

    Bank Shot:
    Oilers aren’t making the playoffs.

    It sure would be nice to see them win like 10 in a row and squeak in, but its not realistically going to happen.

    Even still I want to see them finish strong. Slumping and losing down the stretch isn’t good for anyone. Screw the higher pick. Keep trying to win.

    Agreed.

  43. London Jon says:

    I would love to see a poll of:

    Nicholson – Keep or Replace
    MacT – Keep or Replace
    Hitch – Keep or Replace
    Howson – Keep or Replace
    Green – Keep or Replace
    KGretz – Make GM, Keep AGM, Replace
    Lowe – Keep or Replace

    Clearly set out what the fans want to happen and then send it to Katz

  44. Rebillled says:

    London Jon,

    Keep Kevin Lowe

    – 6 rings
    – good with low level fans
    – good at revenge offer sheets
    – gave Taylor Hall AND Kris Russell his #4

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