Too Much Month at the End of the Money

The Edmonton Oilers had dynamic moments last night but were unable to cash enough of them against an excellent Toronto team. Secondary scoring was an issue (there wasn’t any) and the home team spent too much time in its own zone. If you need someone to blame, point the finger at roster decisions as opposed to any of them men who bled and sweat for the Oilers last night. The Maple Leafs consistent outlet passes tape to tape serves as an outstanding reminder that constant defending means you aren’t winning the game.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group. Outstanding offer is here.

  • New Lowetide: How the emergence of William Lagesson in Bakersfield complicates Edmonton’s 2019-20 depth chart.
  • Jonathan Willis: The Oilers aren’t good, but this group has more potential than teams from the decade of darkness
  • Lowetide: Bob Nicholson’s search continues for the Oilers new tomorrow, but at a leisurely pace.
  • Jonathan Willis: Potential GM candidates and why Edmonton needs to consider those with varied experiences.
  • Lowetide: Identifying Oilers roster needs reveals a familiar list
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How Leon Draisaitl has found ‘another level’ by matching offensive wizardry with sound positioning.
  • Lowetide: How many future NHL goal scorers are playing for the Bakersfield Condors this season?
  • Lowetide: The career destination for Oilers phenom Jesse Puljujarvi remains unknown.
  • Jonathan Willis: Learning from a flawed argument I made about Leon Draisaitl in 2016.
  • Black Dog Pat: How the Oilers can emerge from the Bob Pulford-like era they’re stuck in.
  • Lowetide: The Oilers’ deadline decisions inform what may come in spring and summer
  • Jonathan Willis: From Mikko Koskinen to Bakersfield, the next two months will reveal a lot about the Oilers
  • Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers and the OHL.
  • Lowetide: Complete Oilers top 20 prospects, Winter 2018

OILERS AFTER 68

  • Oilers in 2015: 26-35-7, 59 points; goal differential -30
  • Oilers in 2016: 35-24-9, 79 points; goal differential +10
  • Oilers in 2017: 30-34-4, 64 points; goal differential -35
  • Oilers in 2018: 30-31-7, 67 points; goal differential -21

OILERS IN MARCH

  • Oilers in March 2016: 3-1-0, six points; goal differential +3
  • Oilers in March 2017: 1-2-1, three points; goal differential -2
  • Oilers in March 2018: 2-2-0, four points; goal differential -2
  • Oilers in March 2019: 3-1-0, six points; goal differential +5

WHAT TO EXPECT IN MARCH

  • On the road to: Columbus, Buffalo (Expected 0-1-1) (Actual 2-0-0)
  • At home to: Vancouver, Toronto, NY Rangers, NJD (Expected 2-1-1) (Actual 1-1-0)
  • On the road to: Arizona, Vegas, St. Louis (Expected: 0-2-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Columbus, Ottawa, Los Angeles, Dallas, Anaheim (Expected: 3-1-1) (Actual)
  • Overall expected result: 5-5-4, 14 points in 14 games
  • Current results: 3-1-0, six points in four games

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

  • Klefbom-Larsson went 15-16 in 13:31, 11-11 shots, no goals and 0-4 HDSC. Klefbom scored and Larsson damn near did, and the pairing was quality for the most part. Couldn’t overcome some nice skill on the third goal, but didn’t get any help on the trailer either. Went 11-7 in 6:15 against Hyman-Tavares-Marner.
  • Sekera-Benning went 6-9 in 9:19, Sekera also played with Russell (1:10, a goal against), Larsson (3-0 shots in 2:04), Klefbom (1-2 shots in 1:10) and Nurse (0-1 shots in 49 seconds). Benning got the job done, Sekera’s passing was on display but he seemed hesitant on the second Tavares goal.
  • Nurse-Russell were 12-24 in 12:21, Hitchcock finally pulling the plug on the pairing mid-game. Nurse played a quiet 2:43 with Larsson (on shots either way, one Corsi event for and none against), Russell was 0-5 Corsi with Klefbom in 1:48, and was a saloon door on the second Tavares goal.
  • Anthony Stolarz was solid, absolutely stood in well. Stopped 37 of 40, .925.
  • NaturalStatTrick and NHL.com.

FORWARDS, LAST NIGHT

  • Draisaitl-McDavid-Kassian were 10-9 in 8:28, 7-5 shots, no goals and 1-3 HDSC. 29 and 97 had quality evenings but the Toronto goalie was quite splendid and made a difference. I saw this trio as more productive than the other 97 group.
  • Nuge-McDavid-Kassian were 5-11 in 6:12, 3-8 shots, no goals and 0-3 HDSC. Nuge scored a great goal to cue the late comeback, but this line didn’t enter the Toronto zone under control with a full head of steam enough on the night.
  • Gagner-Draisaitl-Chiasson were 7-12 in 5:31, 4-5 shots, no goals and 0-2 HDSC. Some nice moments (89 can pass) but Leon was destined to play much of the game with another trio.
  • Khaira-Cave-Currie were 1-3 in 3:46, 1-3 shots, 0-1 goals and 1-1 HDSC. Khaira had some looks.
  • Rieder-Nuge-Gagner went 5-2 in 2:46, 2-2, no goals and 1-1 HDSC. I like the results, I wonder if we see them again.

FIRST PAIR V. SECOND PAIR

We don’t have the Puck IQ binning available yet but these two pairings will have faced the toughest opposition this season. In shot and goal suppression, they are alike. To give you an idea about the pairings and how they would compare to other duos, Calgary’s Giordano-Brodie are 26.01 SA/60 5-on-5 and 2.00 GA/60.

The Nurse pairing has the superior GF number but the Klefbom pairing are stronger in shots for in 5-on-5. Again using Giordano-Brodie, the Flames pair is 32.96 in shots for and 2.96 in goals for.

Lots of moving parts, but the bottom line is Klefbom-Larsson are over 50 percent in shot differential and getting caved in goal differential. One area that favors the Swedes: 146-148 (-2) in high danger scoring chances, compared to 122-160 for Nurse-Russell (-38).

I think we see Sekera slide up to the second pair in the coming days. Question: Which current blue should he replace, Nurse or Russell?

Benson now has 50 points on the season and an NHLE of 35.5. Oilers are going to have a helluva time keeping him down on the farm next season. Ostap Safin played his first QMJHL game since November 25 last night, no points but three shots on goal.

MIKKO KOSKINEN

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249 Responses to "Too Much Month at the End of the Money"

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  1. Bulging Twine says:

    If you’d like to get to know Al Murray a little more here he is at one of their development camps.
    Very good communicator. Clarity of thought. Knows the players well and is knowledgable of what is going on in the organization.

    He starts at 17:35

    https://www.nhl.com/lightning/video/morning-skate-show–dev-camp/t-277437434/c-60784703?q=al+murray

  2. Ryan says:

    Oddspell: Because he’s consistently giving the keys to the wrong people, has overseen this team for more than 10 years with only a single somewhat successful season, and has the gall to raise ticket prices, and threaten to move the team.

    I think they want to win, I just don’t think they’re any good at it. OEG preaches talent evaluation but can’t seem to evaluate their talent evaluators. If wanting to win was all it took then maybe we’d have cup 6 by now.

    I believe that The Edmonton Oilers are a bargaining chip in negotiating subsidised real estate development, not a sports team to Mr. Katz. Okay, maybe not, but that’s how it feels to me being a fan and Edmontonian.

    When I imagine how the Reinhart trade transpired, I would fine it conceivable that there were a bunch a guys sitting in a room hashing it out.

    “When he played in a Junior, he was a horse.”

    “I think there’s a real buy low opportunity here, he’s blocked by all those other good dmen the Islanders are developing.”

    “Hey, there’s something to be said for draft pedigree. You rarely come across an opportunity to acquire a forth overall draft pick at this age.”

    “Well ya know, I haven’t watched him play in the past year, but let’s send a guy out to Bridgeport to watch him play.”

    At the time of the trade, Jonathan Willis contemporaneously writes a blog post running some basic comps and it’s plain for anyone to see that acquiring Reinhart could be a very bad idea.

    Imagine how this process would work if this team had build a database with evaluations and valuations for every player and prospect attached to an NHL team… and an analytics department.

    Any competent analytics department would have taken umbrage at the proposed Reinhart trade terms.

  3. OriginalPouzar says:

    Georgexs: I’m interested in how you arrive at that position.

    Here’s what I see when I compare Russell’s tenure with the Oilers (16-17 to 18-19) with Petry’s time in Montreal over the same period. All numbers 5v5 off of NST.

    Russell

    GP 204
    TOI/GP 17:13
    CF% 46.62
    GF% 49.40

    Oilers overall

    CF% 49.64
    GF% 49.45

    Petry

    GP 231
    TOI/GP 17:21
    CF% 53.87
    GF% 48.18

    Habs Overall

    CF% 52.29
    GF% 50.92

    Oilers play in their own end more when Russell is on the ice but they get outscored at about the same rate. Habs play in the other end more when Petry is on the ice but they get outscored (as opposed to outscoring) when he’s out there as well. Both players play about the same minutes at 5v5 suggesting similar roles.

    I’m not taking anything else like age, salary, scoring, special teams, partners, or quality of comp. into account. What I see from the above baseline is that Russell playing his off-wing hasn’t hurt (or helped) his team (in terms of winning and losing hockey games) over these 3 seasons. While Petry, playing on his natural side, has noticeably hurt his team over the same period.

    Why do you see it as so obvious that Petry would make this team better?

    Its obvious because I’ve watched both players play over multiple years and, yes, while I do like to use possession and goal share metrics in analysis, we all know about their flaws and, from watching these two player’s play over the years, its fairly clear to me that Jeff Petry is the far superior hockey player and his skillset is exactly what this team has been missing since, well, since they traded Jeff Petry.

    As you’ve said, you’ve been “nerding out” and not watching – I’ve been watching and the Jeff Petry of 5 years ago would be be a material benefit to this team, let alone the more mature, and more offensively productive, Jeff Petry of today.

    His ability to both skate and pass the puck out of the zone to our forwards would make a material difference.

    I also think he would be a much better fit beside a guy like Darnell Nurse.

    Nope, not scientific at all, I’m sorry about that but some times I will trust my history watching the players.

  4. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer: Benson Bouchard and Yamamoto hopefully get to develop in Ahl next year.Maybe the f get called up halfway through if they are killing it.
    Oh who am I kidding.It’s Oilers.all three will be on the opening night nhl roster

    It will be quite telling what they do with Bouchard. Nicholson has been very clear and express that there needs to be an organizational shift to leave top prospects in the AHL for longer.

    Will they actually follow through on that with Bouchard?

    I have little doubt he will have a great camp and exhibition season – he will accumulate points in the games and he will make a couple darling passes each game. He will likely look like one of the team’s top 4 defenders but we all know that means almost nothing as far as NHL readiness (look at the numbers for Yamamoto and Puljujarvi in exhibition games).

    Unless they all regress, there should be a fantastic battle for the 6th/7th d-spots next year (lets assume no roster turnover) – Benning will be fending off the likes of Jones, Persson, Laggeson, Bear and Bouchard.

    Odds are one of Jones and Lagesson continue to show they “are ready” or at least deserve the look in October. Persson being a total wild card.

    Even if Bouchard sparkles, there should be absolutely no need to have him on the NHL roster. Maybe he will be ready but we won’t know and this player is so important to the future that they must be risk-adverse and not risk delaying or stunting his development. There should be other players, skilled players with NHL skillsets, players that have already been developing at the pro level, just as “ready”.

    What will they do?

  5. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pouzar: I was strictly speaking management.

    Fair enough – that’s why I thought I’d put the clarifier out there – I wasn’t sure.

  6. Reja says:

    Ryan: When I imaginehow the Reinhart trade transpired, I would fine it conceivable that there were a bunch a guys sitting in a room hashing it out.

    “When he played in a Junior, he was a horse.”

    “I think there’s a real buy low opportunity here, he’s blocked by all those other good dmen the Islanders are developing.”

    “Hey, there’s something to be said for draft pedigree. You rarely come across an opportunity to acquire a forth overall draft pick at this age.”

    “Well ya know, I haven’t watched him play in the past year, but let’s send a guy out to Bridgeport to watch him play.”

    At the time of the trade, Jonathan Willis contemporaneously writes a blog post running some basic comps and it’s plain for anyone to see that acquiring Reinhart could be a very bad idea.

    Imagine how this process would work if this team had build a database with evaluations and valuations for every player and prospect attached to an NHL team…and an analytics department.

    Any competent analytics department would have taken umbrage at the proposed Reinhart trade terms.

    They were so excited when they drafted Connor. I could see the reasoning of obtaining a young stud defenseman at the time to play immediately.They gambled on the wrong horse badly and since Pete was the boss which has the final say it has to be on him.

  7. Buddy says:

    Okay, so if I’m understanding correctly the verbal coming from journalists connected to the Oilers, the candidates for GM have been narrowed down to Kevin Lowe and Keith Gretzky.

    “Best Oilers GM in the last 20 years.”

    “He has the respect of the GMs around the league “

  8. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Lowetide: Didn’t read Kurt’s article, but I’ve been reading Oilers tea leaves for decades and came to the conclusion Gretzky has the inside track some time ago. Why? The Oilers are reactionary (“the team is winning!”) they prefer comfort zone (“We have NO idea what an outside guy might do!”) and any fool being contacted for the job might observe Chiarelli’s career trajectory and pass on the opportunity.

    But that’s just me

    – yup. I value this perspective a lot

    – People might say “any gm would welcome the chance to be on CMD”

    – I think the real good independent GM that is required for this team to be sustainable elite for 6-8 seasons means too much ruffling of status quo and that’s too scary.

    – I think they hire another Chia type who is happy to not make much organizational changes or examination and they hope that GM hits some home runs in procurement

    – I think they think they are really close to winning the Cup and just need a choice GM to fit in.

  9. Ryan says:

    Reja: They were so excited when they drafted Connor. I could see the reasoning of obtaining a young stud defenseman at the time to play immediately.They gambled on the wrong horse badly and since Pete was the boss which has the final say it has to be on him.

    There’s the rub, it wasn’t gambling on the wrong horse as you say, it was an evaluation process mired in addled thinking. There was nothing to suggest Reinhart was worth paying such a high price for at the time they acquired him.

    The result was a consequence of a terribly flawed process.

    Pete turfed whatever semblance of an analytics department the Oilers had when they let Dellow go though I think Dellow was primarily working with Eakins anyway.

    The Oilers have a rich history in horrendous player evaluations and a litany of instances where they get bamboozled in trades.

    For this to stop, they can’t keep relying entirely on gut instincts.

    The source of my consternation is overwhelming odds that they’ll hire a new GM, retain existing management, forgo adding an analytics department, and on and on it goes…

    I’ll have to hire a hypnotist to convince me to stop reading this blog and following this team lol.

  10. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Ryan,

    – Ryan – I think your right. And please forward me that hypnotist when you find them.

  11. JimmyV1965 says:

    OriginalPouzar: It will be quite telling what they do with Bouchard. Nicholson has been very clear and express that there needs to be an organizational shift to leave top prospects in the AHL for longer.

    Will they actually follow through on that with Bouchard?

    I have little doubt he will have a great camp and exhibition season – he will accumulate points in the games and he will make a couple darling passes each game. He will likely look like one of the team’s top 4 defenders but we all know that means almost nothing as far as NHL readiness (look at the numbers for Yamamoto and Puljujarvi in exhibition games).

    Unless they all regress, there should be a fantastic battle for the 6th/7th d-spots next year (lets assume no roster turnover) – Benning will be fending off the likes of Jones, Persson, Laggeson, Bear and Bouchard.

    Odds are one of Jones and Lagesson continue to show they “are ready” or at least deserve the look in October. Persson being a total wild card.

    Even if Bouchard sparkles, there should be absolutely no need to have him on the NHL roster.Maybe he will be ready but we won’t know and this player is so important to the future that they must be risk-adverse and not risk delaying or stunting his development. There should be other players, skilled players with NHL skillsets, players that have already been developing at the pro level, just as “ready”.

    What will they do?

    I’ll be shocked if Bouchard starts in the NHL. Guys like Schultz and Yama etc. were rushed into the bigs because there were no other prospects in front of them. (Not that this is the correct way to do things) Now that’s there’s a bunch of prospects in front of him, it just makes sense to send Bouchard down, even for an org like the Oilers.

  12. JimmyV1965 says:

    I wonder if it makes sense to target someone like Trevor van Riemsdyk as a stopgap 2RD? He’s on the third pairing in Carolina, but they have a logjam of dmen. Maybe he could play 2RD here.

  13. Oz says:

    Before making any trades or moves on defense I would like to see
    Nurse Klefbom
    Sekera Larsson
    Russell Benning

    The main reason is to find out if Nurse can take some of the chaos out of his game if paired with a our better passer and puck carrier. The next two pairs are exactly where they should be and can and have played up the roster if needed

  14. Georgexs says:

    OriginalPouzar: Its obvious because I’ve watched both players play over multiple years and, yes, while I do like to use possession and goal share metrics in analysis, we all know about their flaws and, from watching these two player’s play over the years, its fairly clear to me that Jeff Petry is the far superior hockey player and his skillset is exactly what this team has been missing since, well, since they traded Jeff Petry.

    As you’ve said, you’ve been “nerding out” and not watching – I’ve been watching and the Jeff Petry of 5 years ago would be be a material benefit to this team, let alone the more mature, and more offensively productive, Jeff Petry of today.

    His ability to both skate and pass the puck out of the zone to our forwards would make a material difference.

    I also think he would be a much better fit beside a guy like Darnell Nurse.

    Nope, not scientific at all, I’m sorry about that but some times I will trust my history watching the players.

    You’re right. My perspective was too narrow.

    I see Petry’s playing 23 minutes a night. That’s not Russell territory. Even though their 5v5 time is comparable, Petry clearly has a more important role for the Habs than Russell has with the Oilers. Switching the two would be, as you like to say, a material difference because you’re getting a defender who can play more roles and more minutes.

    Just not sure why he lags his team on goals at 5v5. Usually that means a defenseman is out of his depth.

  15. jp says:

    JimmyV1965: I’ll be shocked if Bouchard starts in the NHL. Guys like Schultz and Yama etc. were rushed into the bigs because there were no other prospects in front of them.(Not that this is the correct way to do things) Now that’s there’s a bunch of prospects in front of him, it just makes sense to send Bouchard down, even for an org like the Oilers.

    Shocked? My goodness, they kept him this year. I certainly wouldn’t be shocked.

    Maybe the apparent change in philosophy will lead to a different result this fall, but we’ll have to see. I agree the better move would be to send him down though.

  16. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    HugThePost,

    LOL

    That’s not what he’s saying, at all. He’s railing against the continual and incorrect assertion by those who say Kretzky is part of the OBC… which he’s not.

    *note: not to be construed as an endorsement for Gretz the Younger as GM next season.

  17. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oz:
    Before making any trades or moves on defense I would like to see
    Nurse Klefbom
    Sekera Larsson
    Russell Benning

    The main reason is to find out if Nurse can take some of the chaos out of his game ifpaired with a our better passer and puck carrier. The next two pairs are exactly where they should be and can and have played up the roster if needed

    I’m a bit remiss to reduce the effectiveness of the team’s best d-man – Yes, I’m assuming Klefbom isn’t quite at good on the right side as the left as not many are and I don’t recall him ever playing the right side as a pro.

    I am fine with experimenting through the end of this year, mind you. I have little confidence the org will be targeting a top 4 d-man in the off-season and think, if any “material” player is added, it will be up front.

  18. Reja says:

    Ryan: There’s the rub, it wasn’t gambling on the wrong horse as you say, it was an evaluation process mired in addled thinking. There was nothing to suggest Reinhart was worth paying such a high price for at the time they acquired him.

    The result was a consequence of a terribly flawed process.

    Pete turfed whatever semblance of an analytics department the Oilers had when they let Dellow go though I think Dellow was primarily working with Eakins anyway.

    The Oilers have a rich history in horrendous player evaluations and a litany of instances where they get bamboozled in trades.

    For this to stop, they can’t keep relying entirely on gut instincts.
    I was

    The source of my consternation is overwhelming odds that they’ll hire a new GM, retain existing management, forgo adding an analytics department, and on and on it goes…

    I’ll have to hire a hypnotist to convince me to stop reading this blog and following this team lol.

    I was pretty jacked up myself when they drafted Connor. Then they announced the trade for Reinhardt and like myself I’m sure most Oiler followers were like WTF. Then I’m all happy about Connor thinking maybe Reinhart is better than the islander fans are saying. If it was for Provorov or Sergachev the trade is justified who ever evaluated Reinhart and gave the thumbs up should be fired into the sun for eternity.

  19. Oz says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’m a bit remiss to reduce the effectiveness of the team’s best d-man – Yes, I’m assuming Klefbom isn’t quite at good on the right side as the left as not many are and I don’t recall him ever playing the right side as a pro.

    I am fine with experimenting through the end of this year, mind you.I have little confidence the org will be targeting a top 4 d-man in the off-season and think, if any “material” player is added, it will be up front.

    I think you have mentioned in earlier posts about trying Nurse on the right side, so that may be a better option. We both seem to agree that there will likely be an opportunity to try different combinations.

  20. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Georgexs,

    To add to what OP has said, when Weber went out with his injury last year, Petry moved up and performed admirably.

    Woodguy has shown how the PP in MTL was demonstrably better with Petry than with Weber running the show. Something to do with distribution vs shot volume. Petry is better at walking the line and dishing the puck versus hammering bombs indiscriminately from the point.

  21. Munny says:

    There’s a highlight reel shot every end of this Brier final.

  22. jp says:

    Georgexs: You’re right. My perspective was too narrow.

    I see Petry’s playing 23 minutes a night. That’s not Russell territory. Even though their 5v5 time is comparable, Petry clearly has a more important role for the Habs than Russell has with the Oilers. Switching the two would be, as you like to say, a material difference because you’re getting a defender who can play more roles and more minutes.

    Just not sure why he lags his team on goals at 5v5. Usually that means a defenseman is out of his depth.

    Narrow or not the numbers you posted gave me pause. Pretty surprised to see that.

    First I wondered if 16-17 Sekera-Russell gave Russell a boost. It did, but the last 2 seasons show the same thing (Russell has a slightly better GF% than Petry there too). Petry was boosted by Markov in 16-17, so it’s a washout.

    Petry does play more minutes and provides more offense. At the same time, Russell maybe gets a little more flack than he deserves. His GF% numbers aren’t terrible.

    In terms of Petry’s numbers lagging, he’s played with a ton if different partners and most of them not great.

    His most common partners over 3 yrs (in 4010 5on5 minutes):
    Alzner 785min
    Reilly 650min
    Markov 563min
    Benn 475min
    Beaulieu 357min
    Emelin 266min
    Mete 214min

    Russell’s played 3514 min over the same span, with:
    Nurse 1284min
    Sekera 1024min
    Klefbom 334min
    Larsson 225min

    I think it’s fair to say that Russell got the better the better players lining up with him while Petry did more babysitting.

    All told though, I think the gap between the two players may be less then we think it is.

  23. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Petry was on record saying he’s sign long when he was RFA before the 1 tear MacT contract.

    Can’t have everyone making $4MM though……..

    Sure, & i heard the Oilers offered 4 years $19 million which was turned down by Petry’s camp.

    I guess my point is that once Tambi signed Petry to that two-year bridge that took him to UFA -1, the Oilers lost “control” over the player, & the price point on that bridge was low enough that they likely lost any future chance at a “home town discount”. Petry took the hand he was dealt, played it, & hit it rich to the tune of $36 million & change over 7 years.

    Not saying MacT played it perfectly, just that the departure of Petry was a process that spanned both the Tambellini & MacTavish eras. And your point about paying everyone $4 million is well taken, MacT made a few silly remarks over the years & that was one of them.

  24. Glovjuice says:

    OriginalPouzar: Skating isn’t a strong-suit for either of them – I would say that Marody’s skating is a bit better than Benson’s – he’s got better edges but Benson’s skating has improved through the year and I think health has alot to do with it.

    If either were better skaters they’d have more reasonable chances at legit top 6 careers but both have NHL skill-sets, for sure – the question for each will ultimately be where they fit in to an NHL lineup.

    We can’t forget that Benson is a full year younger than Marody and I think he will surpass Marody as an offensive player in time.

    Thanks. But, if you were the coach/GM would you, based on the info you have now, expect Benson to cover a 3 LW role on the NHL long term.

  25. Ryan says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’m a bit remiss to reduce the effectiveness of the team’s best d-man – Yes, I’m assuming Klefbom isn’t quite at good on the right side as the left as not many are and I don’t recall him ever playing the right side as a pro.

    I am fine with experimenting through the end of this year, mind you.I have little confidence the org will be targeting a top 4 d-man in the off-season and think, if any “material” player is added, it will be up front.

    Since you’re our official Condors scout, what do foresee happening next season?

    On the left shot d, we have Nurse, Klefbom, Sekera, and Russell.

    By my estimation, Jones is already ready for the third pair.

    Then there’s Lagesson.

    Holy mackerel, that’s a lot of left shot defensemen.

  26. Bulging Twine says:

    Reja: I was pretty jacked up myself when they drafted Connor. Then they announced the trade for Reinhardt and like myself I’m sure most Oilerfollowers were like WTF. Then I’m all happy about Connor thinking maybe Reinhart is better than the islander fans are saying. If it was for Provorov or Sergachev the trade is justified who ever evaluated Reinhart and gave the thumbs up should be fired into the sun for eternity.

    How did we all know that was a bad trade the instant we heard it (and it proved true) and Oiler management thought that it was good! Unbelievable!

  27. Ryan says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Sure, & i heard the Oilers offered 4 years $19 million which was turned down by Petry’s camp.

    I guess my point is that once Tambi signed Petry to that two-year bridge that took him to UFA -1, the Oilers lost “control” over the player, & the price point on that bridge was low enough that they likely lost any future chance at a “home town discount”. Petry took the hand he was dealt, played it, & hit it rich to the tune of $36 million & change over 7 years.

    Not saying MacT played it perfectly, just that the departure of Petry was a process that spanned both the Tambellini & MacTavish eras. And your point about paying everyone $4 million is well taken, MacT made a few silly remarks over the years & that was one of them.

    Both Godot and yourself have far superior chronological memories than I do.

    Why do I recall feeling that Mact gave Petry’s money to Nikitin?

  28. Ryan says:

    Bulging Twine: How did we all know that was a bad trade the instant we heard it (and it proved true) and Oiler management thought that it was good!Unbelievable!

    Maybe the Oilers just need to give veto powers to a Lowetide blog poll to prevent shooting themselves in the foot over and over lol.

    The poster who won that thread was the one who remarked that Barzal would be the new Parise.

  29. Reja says:

    Bulging Twine: How did we all know that was a bad trade the instant we heard it (and it proved true) and Oiler management thought that it was good!Unbelievable!

    To tell you the truth in my eyes they already seemed fidgety and unsure once they made the trade in interviews and body language. Here’s a conspiracy theory and please I hope no posters from this thread earlier take offence. What if Katz and Bettman had a deal will give you Connor but you have to tank your 2 picks to the Islanders because they’re on the verge of bankruptcy lol

  30. Georgexs says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Georgexs,

    To add to what OP has said, when Weber went out with his injury last year, Petry moved up and performed admirably.

    Woodguy has shown how the PP in MTL was demonstrably better with Petry than with Weber running the show.Something to do with distribution vs shot volume.Petry is better at walking the line and dishing the puck versus hammering bombs indiscriminately from the point.

    – To add to what OP has said, when Weber went out with his injury last year, Petry moved up and performed admirably.

    “Performed admirably” may be a stretch.

    The Habs were 45.14 on GF% at 5v5 last season. With Petry on the ice, they were even worse: 44.17. I’d go with Petry moved up and performed meh.

    – Woodguy has shown how the PP in MTL was demonstrably better with Petry than with Weber running the show.Something to do with distribution vs shot volume. Petry is better at walking the line and dishing the puck versus hammering bombs indiscriminately from the point.

    This checks out. Since 16-17, the Habs PP has scored at a better rate with Petry (6.93 GF60) than with Weber (6.12).

    But, over that same period, the Habs ranked 21st on PP scoring (6.48 GF60).

    The Oilers, even with their grotesque league-worst performance last season, ranked 12th during that time with a GF60 of 7.04.

    But who knows? The Oilers may have done even better with Petry manning the point.

    Except there’s the unfortunate bit that MTL has the worst PP in the league this season, scoring 4.39 GF60 and a 12.4 PP%, the 5th worst performance of any team since 05-06.

    Special teams can be not so special and very unkind. Hard to make Petry out into a PP whisperer out of all that.

  31. Georgexs says:

    jp: Narrow or not the numbers you posted gave me pause. Pretty surprised to see that.

    First I wondered if 16-17 Sekera-Russell gave Russell a boost. It did, but the last 2 seasons show the same thing (Russell has a slightly better GF% than Petry there too). Petry was boosted by Markov in 16-17, so it’s a washout.

    Petry does play more minutes and provides more offense. At the same time, Russell maybe gets a little more flack than he deserves. His GF% numbers aren’t terrible.

    In terms of Petry’s numbers lagging, he’s played with a ton if different partners and most of them not great.

    His most common partners over 3 yrs (in 4010 5on5 minutes):
    Alzner 785min
    Reilly650min
    Markov 563min
    Benn 475min
    Beaulieu 357min
    Emelin 266min
    Mete 214min

    Russell’s played 3514 min over the same span, with:
    Nurse 1284min
    Sekera 1024min
    Klefbom 334min
    Larsson 225min

    I think it’s fair to say that Russell got the better the better players lining up with him while Petry did more babysitting.

    All told though, I think the gap between the two players may be less then we think it is.

    Cool.

    The 2RD is an idée fixe with OP. I have to mind my manners.

    On “Russell maybe gets a little more flack than he deserves” if you look at his WOWY’s with the partners you listed, there’s really no smoking gun.

    I can see why he’s bad for morale. I think it feels like we’re losing more when he’s out there because we’re playing more in our end.

    But we’re not losing more.

    If you compare the 16-17 team with the current 18-19 team, the D is about the same (same names, more experience for some, more miles for others) and the G is about the same (.919 for Talbot, .912 for Koski). The HC is about the same.

    What’s not about the same? Oh right, the forwards…

  32. Nit64 says:

    Buddy: “Best Oilers GM in the last 20 years.”

    We could shorten that to Generational GM.

  33. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Ryan: Both Godot and yourself have far superior chronological memories than I do.

    Why do I recall feeling that Mact gave Petry’s money to Nikitin?

    Depends on how one chooses to parse “Petry’s money”. One version is Craig MacTavish gave it to Nikitin in 2014 (2 years, $9 million, 53 GP, 4-7-11, -17), another that MacT gave it to Fayne in 2014 (4 years, $14.5 million, 147 GP, 4-13-17, -26) or even Andrew Ference in 2013 when Petry’s own renegotiation window opened (4 years, $13 million, 147 GP, 6-26-32, -39).

    Another version is that MacT gave some of Petry’s dollars (though not term) to Schultz, who was given a 1-year $3.625 million extension while fully under club control, compared to the $3.075 million Petry himself got as a “challenge” that same summer of 2014.

    Yet another version is that Peter Chiarelli gave it to Andrej Sekera after Petry was already gone in 2015 (6 years, $33 million, exactly matching what the Habs paid JP, stats incomplete). At least Rej is still on the team compiling them, unlike Nikitin, Fayne & Ference, who combined to play exactly 21 NHL games in the back half of their respective pacts (Nikitin 11 GP in his second & last year, Ference 6 & Fayne 4 in the last TWO years combined of their respective 4 year pacts).

    Suffice to say, with all the $3+ million contracts flying around, it’s tough to pin down exactly which one (or more) was “Petry’s money”. I’d argue the only one who came remotely close to covering Petry’s actual value is Sekera.

  34. Reja says:

    Connor sets the precedent at two games for a hit to the head by a star player. McDavid’s was a love tap compared to these other two in my Oiler biased eyes.

  35. jp says:

    Georgexs: Cool.

    The 2RD is an idée fixe with OP. I have to mind my manners.

    On “Russell maybe gets a little more flack than he deserves” if you look at his WOWY’s with the partners you listed, there’s really no smoking gun.

    I can see why he’s bad for morale. I think it feels like we’re losing more when he’s out there because we’re playing more in our end.

    But we’re not losing more.

    If you compare the 16-17 team with the current 18-19 team, the D is about the same (same names, more experience for some, more miles for others) and the G is about the same (.919 for Talbot, .912 for Koski). The HC is about the same.

    What’s not about the same? Oh right, the forwards…

    Also health. That 16-17 team had only 20 total games missed by the top 6 forwards and top 4 D.

    But yes, the main issue currently is forwards. Fun fact, despite falling off a cliff Lucic has remained perennially among the top 6th scoring forwards on the team. Even this year with his 17 points. Man.

  36. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Georgexs,

    Yeah to be honest I’m very new to stats. I run from nothing but two things in life — math, and cardio.

    I don’t want to put words into WG’s mouth, but I think he isolated when for Weber was out of the lineup due to injury and then further isolated the time frame prior (when they both played together, pre injury) to show the marked bump in counting stats where Petry was on the PP (and both off). The sample you’re referencing is an amalgam of the sum of that time… including when both were playing pre-injury, during the injury, and post-injury at all game states. Which isn’t what I meant to initially convey. Essentially that over a decent sample, Petry stepped up from 2RD to 1RD and acquitted himself well — and there was also a noticeable bump in PP efficiency for MTL when Petry was playing and Weber was hurt.

    However, I could very well be wrong. Unfortunately I have yet to master the various stats sites and their sorting filters. I’ve started with CapFriendly and will work around to the others like NST, etc. So, please correct if I’m off base here… I take these interactions as valuable learning opportunities.

  37. OriginalPouzar says:

    Glovjuice: Thanks. But, if you were the coach/GM would you, based on the info you have now, expect Benson to cover a 3 LW role on the NHL long term.

    I’m not expecting anything but, at the same time, I’m not discounting a middle six or top 6 NHL career based on average skating. He’s got high end skill, a fantastic offensive mind and an even better work ethic. He’s worked his ass off to get his game back and is one of the best rookies in the AHL, at 20. He a very solid prospect who I’m looking forward to seeing battling at camp in the fall.

  38. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ryan: Since you’re our official Condors scout, what do foresee happening next season?

    On the left shot d, we have Nurse, Klefbom, Sekera, and Russell.

    By my estimation, Jones is already ready for the third pair.

    Then there’s Lagesson.

    Holy mackerel, that’s a lot of left shot defensemen.

    Yes, there is an abundance of d-men but this is a great problem to have – one in which this team hasn’t had in a long time.

    As I’ve stated, my preference is for a Russell disposal and an shot-term/stop-gap acquisition made at 2RD which would set up for 1 rookie to break camp with the team and battle Benning for the 6D spot on the third pairing with Sekera.

    I would say that Jones has the inside track due to his elite skating, NHL experience (and success prior to being moved up) and ability to play the right side.

    Lagesson looks to be darn close to ready and will be chomping at the bit for the first injury call-up (along with Bear).

    Wow, actually NHL ready players, players with skill that might be able to actually help, playing in the AHL, waiting for an opportunity. Bear may get there too.

    Persson is also in the conversation, just a huge wild card until we see him in North America.

    Bouchard should simply be slotted into Bakersfield and forgotten about for half the season

  39. OriginalPouzar says:

    This is a better video of Maksimov’s goal because it shows:

    – SH clear by Maksimov
    – 2 SH hit by Maksimov and a turnover and clear caused
    – SH forecheck turning the puck over by Maksimov
    – SH snipe

    https://twitter.com/EDMFutureWatch/status/1104916244266926082

  40. OriginalPouzar says:

    Georgexs: Cool.

    The 2RD is an idée fixe with OP. I have to mind my manners.

    Excuse me but just because you post some Corsi and Goal Share stats of two different players, with different skillsets, on different teams, in different conferences, with different partners and different responsibilities and it hasn’t convinced me to change my mind does not mean I am resistant to change my thoughts and its quite pretentious and arrogant to think that your stats trump all else in particular with your admission of not actually watching the players play.

    Petry’s puck moving ability while not giving up the blue line so easily and less chaotic defending style would be a massive benefit over what Russell provides on the 2nd pairing, in my opinion – not to mention the benefit that type of partner would have on Darnell Nurse.

    The stats that you provide are indeed interesting and provide some nice and useful information. At the same time, I have given Kris Russell his due respect over the years and praised him for a yeoman’s job filling in admirably over the last few years in a position that is not ideal for him. He has done a great job given the circumstances, however, I feel like an upgrade is needed – the 2nd pairing simply spends too much time chasing and defending – sawing off is not the goal when you are on the ice with 97 and/or 29.

    Yes, the defence is essentially the same as 2016/17, a defensive group that was not good enough to compete with that of ANA and NSH and the then GM expressly acknowledged needed to be upgraded.

  41. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    This is a better video of Maksimov’s goal because it shows:

    – SH clear by Maksimov
    – 2 SH hit by Maksimov and a turnover and clear caused
    – SH forecheck turning the puck over by Maksimov
    – SH snipe

    https://twitter.com/EDMFutureWatch/status/1104916244266926082

    That’s an impressive clip. Worth the 2nd posting. Yeah, you can see a few reasons to be excited about Maksimov’s future. Thanks.

  42. Maoriduvpoojt says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’m not expecting anything but, at the same time, I’m not discounting a middle six or top 6 NHL career based on average skating.He’s got high end skill, a fantastic offensive mind and an even better work ethic.He’s worked his ass off to get his game back and is one of the best rookies in the AHL, at 20. He a very solid prospect who I’m looking forward to seeing battling at camp in the fall.

    I think you also attended the exhibition game in Calgary, and I have never seen a player single-handedly like in basketball (sort of) “trap” a player at the blueline. Valimaki had the puck at the blueline and was trying to get past Benson, but Benson stuck with him, finally forcing him to back up out of the Oilers end. The way he moved his feet was impressive and gave me hope that Benson could play very effective minutes in a depth role.

  43. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Sure, & i heard the Oilers offered 4 years $19 million which was turned down by Petry’s camp.

    I heard they offered that just before the trade deadline and by then Petry had a foot out the door.

    I was referring to the summer previous.

  44. Lowetide says:

    I’m having some issues with the blog this morning, post might be late

  45. GCW_69 says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Sure, & i heard the Oilers offered 4 years $19 million which was turned down by Petry’s camp.

    I guess my point is that once Tambi signed Petry to that two-year bridge that took him to UFA -1, the Oilers lost “control” over the player, & the price point on that bridge was low enough that they likely lost any future chance at a “home town discount”. Petry took the hand he was dealt, played it, & hit it rich to the tune of $36 million & change over 7 years.

    Not saying MacT played it perfectly, just that the departure of Petry was a process that spanned both the Tambellini & MacTavish eras. And your point about paying everyone $4 million is well taken, MacT made a few silly remarks over the years & that was one of them.

    If MacT had offered Petry a long term deal his first summer in the GM seat Petry would have taken it. $4M x 6 years would have likely gotten it done. Hockey players like security and Petry would have been 2 full seasons away from free agency at that time. One good injury and he could have ended up with nothing.

    Once that summer passed, the Oilers were screwed. Perry’s value increased, he had put up with one more year of losing which can’t have been fun, and the injury window to manage was much shorter.

  46. Andy Dufresne says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Petry netted a 2nd & 4th, with the 2nd being used as the primary asset to acquire Cam Talbot. They did indeed pick Caleb Jones with the 4th rounder.

    Schultz was traded for a 3rd rounder that became Filip Berglund.

    2 decent prospects, 7 years after Petry & Schultz were both promising young d-men for the Oilers. Nice of the club to give each their “300 games” of seasoning before moving them along.

    In MacT’s defence, he was painted into a corner by the low-ball 2-year @ $1.75 million bridge deal that Tambellini gave Petry in 2012. To my mind the writing was on the wall the day that was signed that Petry would use his arbitration rights in 2014 for a 1-year deal that would take him to UFA. The two sides avoided that painful process, instead agreeing to the 1-year “challenge” contract that earned MacTavish a lot of derision, but The player had the arbitration hammer in his favour in that negitiation.

    Of course MacTavish in turn painted Chiarelli into a corner with the high-ball 1-year bridge deal paid to Schultz when the club had considerable negotiating power. One would like to think thee was a happy medium to be found in both cases, but #HereComeTheOilers.

    Fantastic synopsis here Bruce. Thank You.

    You really filled in the holes that were missing in my memory of the these events.

    Lt is the Poet, Mentor, Curator and the Conscience of this site,

    OP, LT and Wilde the prospect/draft gurus

    Woodguy the Analytics pioneer/teacher

    You are far and away this sites best historian. ( Edmonton hockey’s best historian?)

    So thanks for all of your contributions.

  47. PunjabiOil says:

    Both Stauffer and BM from Oilers nation alluded it would have cost Petry in the 4M range for a long-term contact.

    Petry’s agent reached out to the Oilers in January for an extension and the Oilers passed.

    It was a clear mistake.

    You do wonder tho (and no, the management does not get credit for luck), had he not been moved, would the Oilers still have 97? I.e. would they still have finished 28th?

  48. Bruce McCurdy says:

    PunjabiOil:
    Both Stauffer and BM from Oilers nation alluded it would have cost Petry in the 4M range for a long-term contact.

    Petry’s agent reached out to the Oilers in January for an extension and the Oilers passed.

    It was a clear mistake.

    You do wonder tho (and no, the management does not get credit for luck), had he not been moved, would the Oilers still have 97?I.e. would they still have finished 28th?

    January 2015? When Petry had “a foot out the door”? I understand Oilers offered him 4x $4.75 as stated above, & he refused. Smart, because Montreal later gave him 6x $5.5.

  49. PunjabiOil says:

    Bruce McCurdy: January 2015? When Petry had “a foot out the door”? I understand Oilers offered him 4x $4.75 as stated above, & he refused. Smart, because Montreal later gave him 6x $5.5.

    Bruce:

    These are the articles I’m referring to

    https://oilersnation.com/2015/01/15/sources-say-no-offer-made-to-petry/

    https://oilersnation.com/2015/10/29/jeff-petry-explains-why-he-doesn-t-play-for-the-edmonton-oilers-anymore/

    Player wanted to return, player wanted to sign long-term. Oilers valued Schultz over Petry and ended up with neither over the long-run.

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