Lets Hear it For the Boys

by Lowetide

In the end, it was a good night for the boys. It could have ended poorly, there were certainly moments when things could have gone sideways. Ken Hitchcock loaded up the McDavid-Draisaitl train and that train is bound for glory. No matter what tomorrow brings, this was a big win for an organization that has endured 40 miles of bad road.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group. Outstanding offer is here.

  • New Lowetide: How the Oilers can build a contender during Connor McDavid’s prime.
  • Lowetide: How the emergence of William Lagesson in Bakersfield complicates Edmonton’s 2019-20 depth chart.
  • Jonathan Willis: The Oilers aren’t good, but this group has more potential than teams from the decade of darkness
  • Lowetide: Bob Nicholson’s search continues for the Oilers new tomorrow, but at a leisurely pace.
  • Jonathan Willis: Potential GM candidates and why Edmonton needs to consider those with varied experiences.
  • Lowetide: Identifying Oilers roster needs reveals a familiar list
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How Leon Draisaitl has found ‘another level’ by matching offensive wizardry with sound positioning.
  • Lowetide: How many future NHL goal scorers are playing for the Bakersfield Condors this season?
  • Lowetide: The career destination for Oilers phenom Jesse Puljujarvi remains unknown.
  • Jonathan Willis: Learning from a flawed argument I made about Leon Draisaitl in 2016.
  • Black Dog Pat: How the Oilers can emerge from the Bob Pulford-like era they’re stuck in.
  • Lowetide: The Oilers’ deadline decisions inform what may come in spring and summer
  • Jonathan Willis: From Mikko Koskinen to Bakersfield, the next two months will reveal a lot about the Oilers
  • Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers and the OHL.
  • Lowetide: Complete Oilers top 20 prospects, Winter 2018

OILERS AFTER 69 GAMES

  • Oilers in 2015: 26-36-7, 59 points; goal differential -33
  • Oilers in 2016: 36-24-9, 81 points; goal differential +16
  • Oilers in 2017: 30-35-4, 64 points; goal differential -36
  • Oilers in 2018: 31-31-7, 69 points; goal differential -20

This year’s Oilers are 16 goals better (EN goals taken out of the goal salad) and with a strong push this year’s team might be able to stretch the goal improvement past 20. There are 13 games left, can Edmonton go 8-4-1? That would put them 39-35-8, 86 points.

OILERS IN MARCH

  • Oilers in March 2016: 3-2-0, six points; goal differential 0
  • Oilers in March 2017: 2-2-1, five points; goal differential +4
  • Oilers in March 2018: 3-2-0, four points; goal differential 0
  • Oilers in March 2019: 4-1-0, eight points; goal differential +6

March McDavid has never looked better, the Oilers are ripping through the early portion of the final month of the year. Need Klefbom back though, he played Game No. 49 last night. He’s having a ‘Serge Savard GP’ early portion of his career.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM MARCH

  • On the road to: Columbus, Buffalo (Expected 0-1-1) (Actual 2-0-0)
  • At home to: Vancouver, Toronto, NY Rangers, NJD (Expected 2-1-1) (Actual 2-1-0)
  • On the road to: Arizona, Vegas, St. Louis (Expected: 0-2-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Columbus, Ottawa, Los Angeles, Dallas, Anaheim (Expected: 3-1-1) (Actual)
  • Overall expected result: 5-5-4, 14 points in 14 games
  • Current results: 4-1-0, eight points in five games

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

  • Andrej Sekera went 11-4 in 10:06 with Adam Larsson, 7-2 in 6:10 with Matt Benning, 3-4 in 6:07 with Kris Russell. Sekera-Larsson were 6-1 HDSC’s together.
  • Matt Benning scored and took a head hit. He was 7-2 in 6:10 with Sekera, 6-6 in 3:31 with Darnell Nurse.
  • Adam Larsson went 11-4 in 10:06 with Adam Larsson, 9-4 with Darnell Nurse, 2-6 in 4:40 with Oscar.
  • Darnell Nurse went 16-14 in 14:21 with Kris Russell, 9-4 with Adam Larsson, 6-6 in 3:31 with Matt Benning,
  • Kris Russell went 16-14 in 14:21 with Darnell Nurse, 3-4 in 6:06 with Andrej Sekera.
  • The first goal against featured a terrible pass by Russell followed by a tip on a long shot by Russell (I believe) and the between period folks blaming the goalie. The second goal really came down to Tobias Rieder not being able to find the puck. Poor guy.
  • Hitch said he thought the defensemen did a great job, mentioning Larsson, Nurse and Russell.
  • Mikko Koskinen stopped 28 of 30, .933. He made some excellent saves.
  • NaturalStatTrick and NHL.com.

FORWARDS, LAST NIGHT

  • Draisaitl-McDavid-Kassian were 13-15 in 17:28, 7-11 shots, 1-1 goals and 1-7 HDSC. The HD number is a fright, but 29 and 97 are so good together and had five points.
  • Khaira-Nuge-Gagner were 14-5 in 11:40, 6-3 shots no goals and 7-0 HDSC. I like this line.
  • Rieder-Cave-Chiasson went 13-9 in 9:46, 6-5 shots, 0-1 goals and 6-2 HDSC. Cave is a chance machine but can’t score for love nor money.
  • Malone-Brodziak-Currie were 4-3 in 5:03, 4-3 shots, no goals and 0-1 HDSC.

LEON DRAISAITL

  • Ken Hitchcock: “The thing that has helped his game is patience with the puck. He’s hung on to the puck and made good plays under pressure rather than force the play and have to skate back 200 feet. It’s allowed him to have more offensive zone time, more control of the hockey game. He’s a 200-foot player with the puck now, because he’s able to control the game, buy time, wait for help, it’s allowed him to keep the puck in the zone and it’s worn out people.”

OSCAR KLEFBOM

Ouch.

https://twitter.com/TSNBobMcKenzie/status/1105468047563710466

Apparently the Oilers are also making a major push. McKenzie tweeted he’s 23, right shot, 6 foot, 180-pound, senior forward who had 13 goals, 37 points in 31 games for Princeton. Senators putting on the full court press.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fun day with much to discuss. Are the Oilers going to get within three points of the playoffs this week? Will NFL free agency actually blow your mind? At 10, TSN1260, scheduled to appear:

  • Jonathan Willis, The Athletic. We’ll talk Oilers playoffs, the GM search and some of the subjects that came up yesterday in our The Athletic-Edmonton QandA.
  • Keegan Matheson, Baseball Toronto. How do the Jays look? Guerrero ETA.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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OriginalPouzar

Yes, and this forum/community here is to discuss those beliefs, no?

Johnny skid

Georgexs:
OriginalPouzar,

This is the Internet. We can all believe what we want.

Yep

Georgexs

OriginalPouzar,

This is the Internet. We can all believe what we want.

OriginalPouzar

Georgexs,

I’ve got zero problem with Matt Benning and definitely like him more than most on this blog – and profess that he is a high end 3rd pairing d-man. I was merely responding to your direct statement suggesting that Benning is doing the polishing over the last 11 games and its not the case.

Yes, I believe that Russell at 2RD is a problem on this team notwithstanding his great 44% goal share away from McDavid – I come to this conclusion by watching him give up the blue line (among the worst in the league), his unnatural defensive zone defending (causing chaos with his partner), his inability to transition the puck with efficiency, etc.

All one has to do is watch the game against the Rangers – yes, Sekera and the other d-men made mistakes but the mistakes that Russell made, such as the egregious turnover in the neutral zone leading to goal 1 against, are a function of playing in a place in the lineup he is not suited for and they are repetitive and causing a negative effect on his partner and on the team.

OriginalPouzar

JimmyV1965: First off, I’d like to say I respect your opinion and for making the case for what you believe in. We all have different approaches. I’ve repeatedly said we need to trade the first round pick and many people think I’m an idiot for beating that drum. I wouldn’t pull the trigger on such a deal, of course, until the lottery balls drop and we know what position we are in.

However, I think your suggestion of trading Nurse or Klefbom is about the worst approach we can take this offseason. It’s also an approach that has crippled us in the past. We traded Petry when he was 25 years old and he wasn’t nearly as good as Klef and Nurse are now. Montreal has reaped the rewards of all the work and effort we put into his development. Madness!!! Nurse and Klef will be much better players in two years so we can’t possibly be trading them at peak value.

Trading draft picks and prospects has inherent risks of course, but we are virtually bereft of assets and we need to add talent somehow. I just can’t envision a reasonable scenario where we end up better off trading one of the six good players we have on the team today.

I am one that challenges your proposed way forward and trading the 1st round pick – I sure hope you don’t equate challenge, opposing opinions and discourse with thinking your are an idiot – I surely don’t.

Yes, this team doesn’t have alot of asset currency to improve the team and high-value, non-roster players (like the 1st rounder) are currency to do so. At the same time, given the cap situation, the team also requires value contracts going forward and the 1st round pick, while a magic bean, is likely to turn in to a high skill player that will provide a value contract within the next few years. I don’t think the team is currently in a position to trade that type of asset in exchange for an older and expensive assets, a “UFA-aged” player that is on a UFA contract or will need to be re-signed soon.

who

Georgexs: I appreciate your approach here. No /s at all.

The small sample size disclaimer is very important.

I’m not saying Sek and Benning haven’t worked well. They have. I’m not down on Sekera. I like him and I want him to be the guy you’re hoping he’ll be.

I’m just giving props to Benning.

Benning had positive goal share even before Sekera got back and the team went 7-2-2. Which means he was 5v5 positive when the team was 5 games under .500. That’s cool.

Benning’s GF-GA numbers over the past 3 seasons really stand out among the 6.

It has a lot to do with playing lower in the lineup. But he’s handled that spot really well.

We know how important CMD is to this team and how we’ve struggled to compete with him off the ice.

Here’s how our 6 have done in the past 3 seasons on 5v5 GF% when they’ve played away from CMD.

Player, TOI away from CMD, GF%

Larsson, 2401, 44.31

Sekera, 1297, 38.56

Nurse, 2250, 43.98

Klefbom, 2105, 40.85

Russell, 2306, 44.06

Benning, 1892, 51.91

That’s really something, isn’t it?

Also, if you were GM, would you look at these numbers and say I really, really have to do something about my D (heh), or about Russell?

So what are you saying? Benning is our best dman?

BONE207

hunter1909: So that’s why they traded away Hall, Eberle, and have managed to completely fuck up the development of Yakupov+JP!??

This team is so fucked.

After so many weeks of incredible cold weather, spring seems to be in the air. Reading Hunters posts only confirms in my mind that he is OP’s doppelganger.

CallighenMan

Georgexs: This must be a watching him play thing.

Here’s what I get from not watching him play.

Sekera in 16-17 played 21:29 minutes per game. In 17-18, about 16:20. In 18-19, he plays 16:24. That ranks him 180th among D who’ve played 10 or more games this season. Last night, with 2 D out, was the first night since he got back from injury he crossed 20 minutes per game.

A D who ranks 180th on TOI is a top-4 D in an alternate universe. In this universe, he’s been bottom pairing, along with Benning. Bottom pairs get sheltered. That’s often why their numbers look better than their roles.

Sekera is going to be just 33 (not 32) at the end of the season. Yikes. He has a cap hit of $5.5 for two more seasons. Yikes. His cap hit of $5.5 in the past two seasons gave us 47 games played so far, 60 if he plays out the string. Yikes.

15-16 Sekera played almost 22 minutes a night but he went 44-60 on 5v5 goals. 16-17 Sekera was an absolute top-4 D, playing over 21 minutes and going 50-37. Post 16-17 Sekera, let’s see. Blown up last season when he returned too soon (9-27). And playing bottom pairing minutes so far this seahson (7-4).

Why don’t we wait and see? Let Sekera play 20+ minutes a night (of winning 5v5) for somethingkq more than half a season and he fills the “free” space he’s left in our salary cap. Because 60+ games is what most non-elite teams need from their top-4 D.

No, it’s a watching hockey and knowing what the F you are looking at thing. Something OP knows about … except when it comes to Koskinen and Malone of course 😉

hunter1909

Reja: We need wingers that have hands and can score this is the most valuable commodity in hockey.

So that’s why they traded away Hall, Eberle, and have managed to completely fuck up the development of Yakupov+JP!??

This team is so fucked.

Reja

JimmyV1965: First off, I’d like to say I respect your opinion and for making the case for what you believe in. We all have different approaches. I’ve repeatedly said we need to trade the first round pick and many people think I’m an idiot for beating that drum. I wouldn’t pull the trigger on such a deal, of course, until the lottery balls drop and we know what position we are in.

However, I think your suggestion of trading Nurse or Klefbom is about the worst approach we can take this offseason. It’s also an approach that has crippled us in the past. We traded Petry when he was 25 years old and he wasn’t nearly as good as Klef and Nurse are now. Montreal has reaped the rewards of all the work and effort we put into his development. Madness!!! Nurse and Klef will be much better players in two years so we can’t possibly be trading them at peak value.

Trading draft picks and prospects has inherent risks of course, but we are virtually bereft of assets and we need to add talent somehow. I just can’t envision a reasonable scenario where we end up better off trading one of the six good players we have on the team today.

We’re not trading Nurse or Kelbom for pennies on the dollar like Petry up there in the dumb dumb trades by the Oilers in the last 20 years. We’re getting a 40 goal scorer back.Leon and Connor by nature are pass first players they both have adapted their game to shoot more even when they know passing is the best option. I believe you think Nurse is a core player are you willing to pay him like a core player say 7 mil for 8 years remember he bridged which means extra dollars on the next contract he has most of the bargaining power I smell ugly holdout.

BONE207

Woodguy v2.0:
Btw, every time I post (on phone android/chrome) I get a white screen with “this site cannot be reached”

I hit the back button, then “post comment” again and it works.

FYI

I was also getting this all day. On a laptop & also on my android using Samsung’s browser. Go Daddy is going to be Gone Daddy if this keeps up.

Scungilli Slushy

Bruce McCurdy: Funny you should mention Oilers valuing hitting after a game they won despite being out-hit 49-21. It was so one-sided that of the ten players who recorded 3+ hits last night, ALL TEN played for Rangers. It;s not like they had a home scorer advantage or anything either. Not sure I’ve ever seen the like (not that I study the hits column That closely, but I do track the Event Summary every single game & have for years).

I think you know that they value it, a lot, given you’re job.

Like shot blocking ‘ I’ve never coached a team that doesn’t use shot blockers – warriors’.

They got out hit one game, but I’d hazard that because they blew the lead and could have lost it probably caused some red ears in the room, getting out hit, not that hitting had much to do with the game outcome.

Other than that they didn’t cave like they used to. You have a better insight into this given your connections.

godot10

Professor Q:
Andy McNamara should be a joy to hear the next time he’s on the Lowetide.

What a great offseason thus far for the Browns!

Can the Patriots coach up their draft picks and bargain basement free agents faster than the Browns can spend their cap space?

The Patriots are being challenged by the fast rising cap. They’ve lost a couple of guys both last year and this that they probably would have liked to keep. But they have been collecting compensatory draft picks for the losses.

Ex-Pat coaches in Detroit, Tennessee, and Miami are also shopping in the same free agent bins.

Dorsey is right to push. The Pats, Steelers, and Ravens have more rebuilding work to do than usual.

Georgexs

OriginalPouzar:
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20182019&thruseason=20182019&stype=2&sit=5v5&stdoi=oi&rate=n&v=t&playerid=8476988

Every single possession and goal share stat:

– Benning gets a boost when with Sekera

– Sekera gets gets a books when removed from Benning (small sample size there).

I appreciate your approach here. No /s at all.

The small sample size disclaimer is very important.

I’m not saying Sek and Benning haven’t worked well. They have. I’m not down on Sekera. I like him and I want him to be the guy you’re hoping he’ll be.

I’m just giving props to Benning.

Benning had positive goal share even before Sekera got back and the team went 7-2-2. Which means he was 5v5 positive when the team was 5 games under .500. That’s cool.

Benning’s GF-GA numbers over the past 3 seasons really stand out among the 6.

It has a lot to do with playing lower in the lineup. But he’s handled that spot really well.

We know how important CMD is to this team and how we’ve struggled to compete with him off the ice.

Here’s how our 6 have done in the past 3 seasons on 5v5 GF% when they’ve played away from CMD.

Player, TOI away from CMD, GF%

Larsson, 2401, 44.31

Sekera, 1297, 38.56

Nurse, 2250, 43.98

Klefbom, 2105, 40.85

Russell, 2306, 44.06

Benning, 1892, 51.91

That’s really something, isn’t it?

Also, if you were GM, would you look at these numbers and say I really, really have to do something about my D (heh), or about Russell?

JimmyV1965

Reja: I’m talking about acquiring a Mark Stone before he got paid a Huberdeau on a friendly contract maybe someone out Culumbus. What will the jets get for Ehlers remains to be seen. These players aren’t cheap i would be really Leary of trading my first round pick before the season starts what happens if we know who and who get injured and you don’t make the playoffs and you win the lottery you’ll no longer Be employed.

First off, I’d like to say I respect your opinion and for making the case for what you believe in. We all have different approaches. I’ve repeatedly said we need to trade the first round pick and many people think I’m an idiot for beating that drum. I wouldn’t pull the trigger on such a deal, of course, until the lottery balls drop and we know what position we are in.

However, I think your suggestion of trading Nurse or Klefbom is about the worst approach we can take this offseason. It’s also an approach that has crippled us in the past. We traded Petry when he was 25 years old and he wasn’t nearly as good as Klef and Nurse are now. Montreal has reaped the rewards of all the work and effort we put into his development. Madness!!! Nurse and Klef will be much better players in two years so we can’t possibly be trading them at peak value.

Trading draft picks and prospects has inherent risks of course, but we are virtually bereft of assets and we need to add talent somehow. I just can’t envision a reasonable scenario where we end up better off trading one of the six good players we have on the team today.

Reja

Bruce McCurdy: So does former Oiler Denis Grebeshkov.

I’m unsure but I thick it’s better than what happened to Mark Howe.

JimmyV1965

Scungilli Slushy: I was thinking of emulating currently successfull teams, our Oilers picked teams not currently winning because they wanted to be really tough amd kick ass as priority #1. They achieved it, I read players consider them the league’s toughest team now. Losing hasn’t changed.

I agree it’s better to strive for excellence and in that way take the path that leads you there, which makes it your own way.

But if you can’t at least let Tampa and whoever is also currently dominant provide a template. I keep saying it isn’t that complicated- the best teams from any era were highly skilled and had good goaltending- I don’t mean to dismiss assessment and trades are hard to do, but the path has always been pretty clear for teams that think the process properly.

Not our team sadly, at least not yet

I agree. You emulate teams that have success. After time, you will enjoy your own success and develop your own methods, innovations and best practices. This will lead to even greater success. But the starting point IMO is to find out how others achieved their success and copy that.

Bruce McCurdy

bendelson: Former Oiler Nick Fotiu says hello!

So does former Oiler Denis Grebeshkov.

Bruce McCurdy

Scungilli Slushy: One of the main skills for players that stay in the league for a long time is staying healthy, while also remaining effective. It’s a skill almost every HOF player has. Not everyone can do it. IT doesn’t help Benning being on the Oilers who still value hitting too much, and seem to think players are like the ones in Fortnite.

Funny you should mention Oilers valuing hitting after a game they won despite being out-hit 49-21. It was so one-sided that of the ten players who recorded 3+ hits last night, ALL TEN played for Rangers. It;s not like they had a home scorer advantage or anything either. Not sure I’ve ever seen the like (not that I study the hits column That closely, but I do track the Event Summary every single game & have for years).

OriginalPouzar

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20182019&thruseason=20182019&stype=2&sit=5v5&stdoi=oi&rate=n&v=t&playerid=8476988

Every single possession and goal share stat:

– Benning gets a boost when with Sekera

– Sekera gets gets a books when removed from Benning (small sample size there).

Reja

McNuge93: And we don’t need 2016 Sek back. If we get him 85 or 90% of his former that’s good enough. If he can play18 minutes a night at that level it really solidifies our defence. Both Klef and Nurse are playing more and are better than their 2016 selves. I find it crazy when people are suggesting we trade Klef, or Nurse or Sek for a winger. It was only a short time ago we were missing one and even for a period two of those guys and it sunk our season. We are close to having the best depth on defence that we have had for years. Let’s not take a step back.

Have you seen our pipeline a stop Gap for 1-2 years is all that is needed.The last time a good defenseman that I really liked was traded for a Crackerjack winger shall remain untalked about by myself. We need wingers that have hands and can score this is the most valuable commodity in hockey. Leon and Connor’s backs are getting sore.

Georgexs

OriginalPouzar: I would suggest you watch him play.

Yes, I (and the rest) have acknowledged that he’s been playing only third pairing minutes (plus PK) and noone has said they are certain he will perform the same way with second pairing minutes.

At the same time, he has passed every single game test he has been given since his first AHL game this year and, he isn’t just playing well in those 3rd pairing minutes, he’s killing it and “shinning/polishing” Matt Benning.

Further, the game he is playing looks pretty much the same to the game he was playing in 2016/17 – he looks like the same D-man.

He’s had one opportunity for bigger ES minutes and, well, he killed those last night.

Of course, he still has a bunch of hurdles to jump to prove that “he’s back” but all signs are pointing there.

I respect the numbers and I use them in my analysis but we all know that all of them have flaws and need to be taken in context.

I don’t believe its a good use of my time to have discourse with those that don’t watch at all and base opinions solely on numbers. Sorry, no disrespect but, in my opinion, not watching the games and basing opinions solely on numbers does not lead to valued opinions.

I see.

In my defense, “Of course, he still has a bunch of hurdles to jump to prove that “he’s back” but all signs are pointing there.” is a little different from “Tsk, tsk, tsk…” and “Given many’s predictions/hopes, the team has essentially added a solid top 4 dman for free.”

I took you up on your suggestion by going to the game last night. Thanks for that. I’m feeling waaay more knowledgeable about hockey.

Here’s what I noticed.

I noticed Russell with the giveaway and the puck ended up in our net.

I noticed Sekera chase a guy below the goal line when they were already 2 Oilers there. The pass naturally came to the unmarked man out front. Koski made the save and the puck didn’t end up in our net.

I noticed Nurse skate la-di-da backwards into empty space taking himself out of the play when Benning sort of fumbled the puck. Rieder couldn’t find it and the puck ended up in our net.

I noticed Nurse decide to snow-angel on a 2-on-1, miss his guy, miss the pass across to the trailer, and take himself out of the play. Russell took the 2-on-1 guy into Koskinen. Somehow Nurse’s guy got the puck back while standing all alone and missed the wide-open net. Puck came to some other guy who backhanded it at the mostly open net with Koski too far to one side. But Russell got his stick on that one so the puck didn’t end up in our net.

(I sorta got the details from the condensed game on YouTube. It’s just 9 minutes of your life instead of the 5 hours it takes to watch and travel to and from a game in person. I’d go more but I don’t want my dying thought to be “Man, glad I watched all that hockey.”)

It was a lot to keep track of. I don’t know how you do it. But I use numbers.

The stuff I’m putting up is mild. If the context you think they need is the skill you have at watching a lot of hockey games, I can understand.

You picked up on something I said about not watching to another poster. it was a line in a dialogue I was having with him. Because you picked it up, it became a line in the dialogue I’m having with you.

And, by the way, Matt Benning is a miracle man on this team, positive in GF-GA all 3 seasons he’s been here. At this stage, it’s OK to explore the idea that he might be the one doing the shinning/polishing.

Professor Q

Andy McNamara should be a joy to hear the next time he’s on the Lowetide.

What a great offseason thus far for the Browns!

McNuge93

OriginalPouzar: I would suggest you watch him play.

Yes, I (and the rest) have acknowledged that he’s been playing only third pairing minutes (plus PK) and noone has said they are certain he will perform the same way with second pairing minutes.

At the same time, he has passed every single game test he has been given since his first AHL game this year and, he isn’t just playing well in those 3rd pairing minutes, he’s killing it and “shinning/polishing” Matt Benning.

Further, the game he is playing looks pretty much the same to the game he was playing in 2016/17 – he looks like the same D-man.

He’s had one opportunity for bigger ES minutes and, well, he killed those last night.

Of course, he still has a bunch of hurdles to jump to prove that “he’s back” but all signs are pointing there.

I respect the numbers and I use them in my analysis but we all know that all of them have flaws and need to be taken in context.

I don’t believe its a good use of my time to have discourse with those that don’t watch at all and base opinions solely on numbers. Sorry, no disrespect but, in my opinion, not watching the games and basing opinions solely on numbers does not lead to valued opinions.

And we don’t need 2016 Sek back. If we get him 85 or 90% of his former that’s good enough. If he can play18 minutes a night at that level it really solidifies our defence. Both Klef and Nurse are playing more and are better than their 2016 selves. I find it crazy when people are suggesting we trade Klef, or Nurse or Sek for a winger. It was only a short time ago we were missing one and even for a period two of those guys and it sunk our season. We are close to having the best depth on defence that we have had for years. Let’s not take a step back.

texmex

Arizona up 2-0 on STL in the third.

Oilers will likely be 6pts out in the morning.

How the f**k is Arizona doing this?

Reja

JimmyV1965: Why in the world would you do this? It makes infinitely more sense to move other assets. Trade the first round pick. Your hoping that player becomes Nurse or Klef in five years anyway. It is very much possible to acquire good wingers without trading the handful of good players already on the roster.

I’m talking about acquiring a Mark Stone before he got paid a Huberdeau on a friendly contract maybe someone out Culumbus. What will the jets get for Ehlers remains to be seen. These players aren’t cheap i would be really Leary of trading my first round pick before the season starts what happens if we know who and who get injured and you don’t make the playoffs and you win the lottery you’ll no longer Be employed.

Scungilli Slushy

Nit64: If this is really true, then you’d think some teams just might have such a GM out front and a POHO calling the real shots. Real execs don’t let their sales closers run the show.

(or the other model the modern GM in control paired with an old guard POHO)

But it’s not selling, it’s horse trading and buying colts. Those who learn to spot talent win the first aspect, those that also don’t lose quality in deals win overall.

Buying colts (draft) and making necessary deals to speed the process when needed to stay at the top of the game.

Relationships, staying current and deal making.

Scungilli Slushy

Woodguy v2.0: The other (and much larger revenue) major leagues have opened up to professional managers.

NHL is still back of the envelope/cocktail napkin league. (Outside a few teams)

Exactly

Scungilli Slushy

silasbengtsson: So you didn’t have significant doubts of Sekera’s ability to return from that injury after he looked awful and posted a 25% GF, 45% SCF, 40% HDCF and 30% HDGF in 36 games last year? I applaud your faith in the guy, but I can’t agree that fearing the worst for him in unreasonable. Agree to disagree, I guess.

As for the latter part, I can agree. Compared to what I planned for, Sekera’s return is exactly like we’ve added an NHL Dman for nothing. Not sure I’m ready to be confident he’ll be a top-4 guy over a full season, but he’s at least an elite 3rd pairing guy!

Many of those believing in a successful return for Sekera based the thought on the nature of the injury.

The first was serious, he came back too early and the brace messed him up. He didn’t use the brace after and played well.

The second injury was not serious. I believe Leadfarmer piped in that a skate actually helps that injury providing support.

Reg’s serious injury actually had a longer than normal time to heal because of the second. That he is playing well now is actually a reasonable expectation factoring everything in, and may extend his career longer than might be expected after the first injury.

Nobody has a crystal ball, but as long as Reg hasn’t become fragile and injury prone, he has the ability to play well for longer than normal because his game is based on his brain, not his body, and his body has a very long break from the rigours of the game.

I’d still trade him after next season. Because cap and the prospects pushing.

OriginalPouzar

Ryan McLeod with a goal tonight in a 6-2 in. His lone shot, he was plus 3

Scungilli Slushy

Jethro Tull: By the time you emulate the best, the very best have already identified new criteria and changed and you’re left emulating something that’s not longer relevant.See Big Body hockey and the Edmonton Oilers. It’s better to make your own road.

I was thinking of emulating currently successfull teams, our Oilers picked teams not currently winning because they wanted to be really tough amd kick ass as priority #1. They achieved it, I read players consider them the league’s toughest team now. Losing hasn’t changed.

I agree it’s better to strive for excellence and in that way take the path that leads you there, which makes it your own way.

But if you can’t at least let Tampa and whoever is also currently dominant provide a template. I keep saying it isn’t that complicated- the best teams from any era were highly skilled and had good goaltending- I don’t mean to dismiss assessment and trades are hard to do, but the path has always been pretty clear for teams that think the process properly.

Not our team sadly, at least not yet

OriginalPouzar

Jethro Tull: Would you sign Taylor Hall?

I’m not sure what that has to do with the quotes post on Sekera? Is it an injury history thing?

Firstly, he’s signed for one more year but, sure, in isolation, I would love to have Taylor Hall on this hockey team, however, the contract that it would take would not be value for its term so, no, I would probably not sign Taylor Hall unless he’s willing to sign a 3-4 year deal and there is a reasonable way to find the cap space (which there likely isn’t). I’m about paying players for their 20s, not their 30s.

I want Taylor Hall on his RFA contract for his 20s, not his UFA contract for his late 20s and 30s – his offensive peak is likely only a couple more years.

PaperBagDiscarded

John Chambers,

I don’t comment here much…but wanted to share that after those 3 losses, I threw up my hands and walked away from this season (for not the first, or as it turns out, last time). If we got even 3 points out of those games, we’d have ACTUAL hope of a wildcard instead of, well, whatever we have right now. I want them to make it, I really do, but it is not in the cards. I fear we are chasing shadows here at the cost of draft position. But I confess it does feel better than tanking.

JimmyV1965

Woodguy v2.0:
Btw, every time I post (on phone android/chrome) I get a white screen with “this site cannot be reached”

I hit the back button, then “post comment” again and it works.

FYI

That’s happening on my IPhone as well. Is very new. Not that it’s a big deal.

who

Georgexs: This must be a watching him play thing.

Here’s what I get from not watching him play.

Sekera in 16-17 played 21:29 minutes per game. In 17-18, about 16:20. In 18-19, he plays 16:24. That ranks him 180th among D who’ve played 10 or more games this season. Last night, with 2 D out, was the first night since he got back from injury he crossed 20 minutes per game.

A D who ranks 180th on TOI is a top-4 D in an alternate universe. In this universe, he’s been bottom pairing, along with Benning. Bottom pairs get sheltered. That’s often why their numbers look better than their roles.

Sekera is going to be just 33 (not 32) at the end of the season. Yikes. He has a cap hit of $5.5 for two more seasons. Yikes. His cap hit of $5.5 in the past two seasons gave us 47 games played so far, 60 if he plays out the string. Yikes.

15-16 Sekera played almost 22 minutes a night but he went 44-60 on 5v5 goals. 16-17 Sekera was an absolute top-4 D, playing over 21 minutes and going 50-37. Post 16-17 Sekera, let’s see. Blown up last season when he returned too soon (9-27). And playing bottom pairing minutes so far this season (7-4).

Why don’t we wait and see? Let Sekera play 20+ minutes a night (of winning 5v5) for something more than half a season and he fills the “free” space he’s left in our salary cap. Because 60+ games is what most non-elite teams need from their top-4 D.

I think you should watch him play.
You sound misinformed.

JimmyV1965

Reja:
Nurse and Kelfbom are the only twoplayers on the team that another GM will pay full value or overpay on. We need scoring wingers for Leon and Connor. We don’t have one winger that anyone would bet their house on to score 20. Connor and Leon are peaking they need someone that can bury the puck like Leon did last night

Why in the world would you do this? It makes infinitely more sense to move other assets. Trade the first round pick. Your hoping that player becomes Nurse or Klef in five years anyway. It is very much possible to acquire good wingers without trading the handful of good players already on the roster.

Jethro Tull

OriginalPouzar: I would suggest you watch him play.

Yes, I (and the rest) have acknowledged that he’s been playing only third pairing minutes (plus PK) and noone has said they are certain he will perform the same way with second pairing minutes.

At the same time, he has passed every single game test he has been given since his first AHL game this year and, he isn’t just playing well in those 3rd pairing minutes, he’s killing it and “shinning/polishing” Matt Benning.

Further, the game he is playing looks pretty much the same to the game he was playing in 2016/17 – he looks like the same D-man.

He’s had one opportunity for bigger ES minutes and, well, he killed those last night.

Of course, he still has a bunch of hurdles to jump to prove that “he’s back” but all signs are pointing there.

I respect the numbers and I use them in my analysis but we all know that all of them have flaws and need to be taken in context.

I don’t believe its a good use of my time to have discourse with those that don’t watch at all and base opinions solely on numbers. Sorry, no disrespect but, in my opinion, not watching the games and basing opinions solely on numbers does not lead to valued opinions.

Would you sign Taylor Hall?

LMHF#1

Lowetide:
test.

You are here.

JimmyV1965

Chelios is a Dinosaur:
If I were Katz, and Nicholson told me he needed to go walk the earth to find out what makes a good GM, I would tell him that when he hits the ocean, keep walking.

On the face of it, this seems silly. he was brought in four years ago to establish a new management structure, did that in x days, and then has been doing exactly what? Every year in my field I need to file a currency report that gives my employer an idea of the all the ways I remain up to speed on the field. And I’m not even important. It get’s called doing due diligence, but good god man, due diligence is just not being in the clouds otherwise.

Also Go Oilers. Keep winning.

This is what I don’t get. Let’s say your boss gives you a special assignment critical to the future of your business. Do you simply charge ahead and assume you know everything that is needed to make the project successful? Or do you complete as much preliminary work and studying as possible, even though you have extensive experience and knowledge about what’s needed? I certainly know what employee I want heading up the project. Just because someone is being careful about his due diligence doesn’t imply he knows nothing about the job at hand.

Reja

OriginalPouzar: I would posit that neither player is peaking yet – their offence will start to peak in the next year or two but their overall games will develop in to their late 20s.

Let’s say you get one or a couple of Coburn types on the cheap you don’t have to trade Nurse or Kelbom but you quietly put them on the market before the draft a GM will pay thick for either one because he think’s they haven’t peaked. The way nurse is putting up the points and the salary cap going up his next contract might start at 7 but probably 6 does he cover that bet if your the GM.

OriginalPouzar

Woodguy v2.0: chrome

FYI, I just used Firefox and my first post of the day where I didn’t have the issue. Seems like it might be an issue with Chrome.

OriginalPouzar

Georgexs: This must be a watching him play thing.

Here’s what I get from not watching him play.

Sekera in 16-17 played 21:29 minutes per game. In 17-18, about 16:20. In 18-19, he plays 16:24. That ranks him 180th among D who’ve played 10 or more games this season. Last night, with 2 D out, was the first night since he got back from injury he crossed 20 minutes per game.

A D who ranks 180th on TOI is a top-4 D in an alternate universe. In this universe, he’s been bottom pairing, along with Benning. Bottom pairs get sheltered. That’s often why their numbers look better than their roles.

Sekera is going to be just 33 (not 32) at the end of the season. Yikes. He has a cap hit of $5.5 for two more seasons. Yikes. His cap hit of $5.5 in the past two seasons gave us 47 games played so far, 60 if he plays out the string. Yikes.

15-16 Sekera played almost 22 minutes a night but he went 44-60 on 5v5 goals. 16-17 Sekera was an absolute top-4 D, playing over 21 minutes and going 50-37. Post 16-17 Sekera, let’s see. Blown up last season when he returned too soon (9-27). And playing bottom pairing minutes so far this season (7-4).

Why don’t we wait and see? Let Sekera play 20+ minutes a night (of winning 5v5) for something more than half a season and he fills the “free” space he’s left in our salary cap. Because 60+ games is what most non-elite teams need from their top-4 D.

I would suggest you watch him play.

Yes, I (and the rest) have acknowledged that he’s been playing only third pairing minutes (plus PK) and noone has said they are certain he will perform the same way with second pairing minutes.

At the same time, he has passed every single game test he has been given since his first AHL game this year and, he isn’t just playing well in those 3rd pairing minutes, he’s killing it and “shinning/polishing” Matt Benning.

Further, the game he is playing looks pretty much the same to the game he was playing in 2016/17 – he looks like the same D-man.

He’s had one opportunity for bigger ES minutes and, well, he killed those last night.

Of course, he still has a bunch of hurdles to jump to prove that “he’s back” but all signs are pointing there.

I respect the numbers and I use them in my analysis but we all know that all of them have flaws and need to be taken in context.

I don’t believe its a good use of my time to have discourse with those that don’t watch at all and base opinions solely on numbers. Sorry, no disrespect but, in my opinion, not watching the games and basing opinions solely on numbers does not lead to valued opinions.

Glovjuice

Andy Dufresne:
I worry for Matt Benning. How do we account for all the physical abuse this poor kid takes?

Im certain that if you asked him he’d say “What abuse”…because he’s as tough as nails.

Problem is, he is as tough as nails, similar to and probably more-so than Kris Russell. But Russell injuries come as a result of a) blocking shots b) taking hits along the boards c) random incidents

Benning (who is larger of the two by a significant amount (6’1″ 203 vs 5’10” 170 ), appears to take more violent hits in general and more hits to the head. He also dishes out more violent hits himself (which cantbe helping his brain any).

Its as though, as a smaller player, Russell learned tactics to protect himself through awareness and not leaving himself completely vulnerable to the big hit. (although he occasionally takes one and is clearly a candidate for CTE as well)

Whereas, it appears to me that Benning may, in a sense, be putting himself in harms way as a result of two thingsa) tough as nails mentalityb) playing above his actual skill level.

What I mean by that is, if you watch Benning he seems to be in one of two modes on any given day:

Mode A: He’s in protection mode, avoiding hits, turning away from the hit, reversing direction, playing the puck of the glass etc. This mode keeps him a little more safe and protected but it leads to turn-overs, gaffs, and ineffective zone exits.

Mode B: In this mode, Benning is fearless, moves the puck a little quicker, makes more outlet passes and could be generally described as “less noticable” which Im sure the coaches reinforce with positive feedback. Less noticable is good. Less time with the puck on your stick etc. But in order to operate in this fashion, Benning is forced to play a style/speed( which takes him out of his comfort zone) that makes him seemingly less aware of potential dangers and so more vulnerable to the big hit.

I cant say any of this is fact…..But you dont see this happen with Larrson, Nurse, Sekera, or even injury prone Klefbom….you dont even see it with part timers like Gravel or even with Rookies like Jones.

Its starting to remind me of the old boxers who used to “stand in there” and take abuse that would leave you shaking your head….”can’t knock this guy out”…..”he’s got an iron jaw”……only later to find
Chronic Traumatic Encephalopathy (CTE) across the board with these althletes.

CTE includes not just symptomatic concussions but also asymptomatic subconcussive hits to the head that do not cause symptoms.

I hope I’m wrong. I guess professional sports at this level comes with a significant degree of risk.

Simple. Benning is a poor skater. That’s the route cause. Turns way too slow.

Andy Dufresne:
I worry for Matt Benning. How do we account for all the physical abuse this poor kid takes?

Im certain that if you asked him he’d say “What abuse”…because he’s as tough as nails.

Problem is, he is as tough as nails, similar to and probably more-so than Kris Russell. But Russell injuries come as a result of a) blocking shots b) taking hits along the boards c) random incidents

Benning (who is larger of the two by a significant amount (6’1″ 203 vs 5’10” 170 ), appears to take more violent hits in general and more hits to the head. He also dishes out more violent hits himself (which cantbe helping his brain any).

Its as though, as a smaller player, Russell learned tactics to protect himself through awareness and not leaving himself completely vulnerable to the big hit. (although he occasionally takes one and is clearly a candidate for CTE as well)

Whereas, it appears to me that Benning may, in a sense, be putting himself in harms way as a result of two thingsa) tough as nails mentalityb) playing above his actual skill level.

What I mean by that is, if you watch Benning he seems to be in one of two modes on any given day:

Mode A: He’s in protection mode, avoiding hits, turning away from the hit, reversing direction, playing the puck of the glass etc. This mode keeps him a little more safe and protected but it leads to turn-overs, gaffs, and ineffective zone exits.

Mode B: In this mode, Benning is fearless, moves the puck a little quicker, makes more outlet passes and could be generally described as “less noticable” which Im sure the coaches reinforce with positive feedback. Less noticable is good. Less time with the puck on your stick etc. But in order to operate in this fashion, Benning is forced to play a style/speed( which takes him out of his comfort zone) that makes him seemingly less aware of potential dangers and so more vulnerable to the big hit.

I cant say any of this is fact…..But you dont see this happen with Larrson, Nurse, Sekera, or even injury prone Klefbom….you dont even see it with part timers like Gravel or even with Rookies like Jones.

Its starting to remind me of the old boxers who used to “stand in there” and take abuse that would leave you shaking your head….”can’t knock this guy out”…..”he’s got an iron jaw”……only later to find
Chronic Traumatic Encephalopathy (CTE) across the board with these althletes.

CTE includes not just symptomatic concussions but also asymptomatic subconcussive hits to the head that do not cause symptoms.

I hope I’m wrong. I guess professional sports at this level comes with a significant degree of risk.

It’s as simple as one can skate well and one skates poor for the NHL. Route cause uncovered.

frjohnk

Woodguy v2.0:
Btw, every time I post (on phone android/chrome) I get a white screen with “this site cannot be reached”

I hit the back button, then “post comment” again and it works.

FYI

Same here.

I’m on iphone

OriginalPouzar

Woodguy v2.0:
Btw, every time I post (on phone android/chrome) I get a white screen with “this site cannot be reached”

I hit the back button, then “post comment” again and it works.

FYI

Its not just your phone – its been on my iphone and laptop – all day and every post.

OriginalPouzar

Woodguy v2.0: This post is my official victory lap on predicting he’d be close to 16/17 Rej again.

If he can show up to camp in fall 2019 in full health we’re cooking with fire.

We were two of the few that were even cautiously optimistic.

frjohnk

OriginalPouzar: There were tons of suggestions regarding all three. Tons.

*puts hand up*

I was one of those who had sugggested that LTIR was an option the Oilers would look at IF Sekera was not able to perform after those injuries.

It’s fantastic that we are not looking at that option and Sekera is playing well.