Blue Sunday

by Lowetide

In Game 75 of 82, in a long season that will finish outside the playoffs, Darnell Nurse sent Alex Chiasson in alone with a cherry headman pass. Music! That’s the future of the Edmonton Oilers. Now. Who is going to be part of the new tomorrow?

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group. INSANE NEW OFFER IS HERE!

  • New Lowetide: Colby Cave and Joe Gambardella build late-season resumes with Edmonton.
  • Lowetide: The Oilers made a rare move and shopped the QMJHL at the 2018 draft. It could happen again.
  • Eric Duhatschek: Sorting through the organizational problems in Ottawa and Edmonton.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: After a year of despair, Oilers prospect Cameron Hebig grateful for latest chapter with the Condors
  • Jonathan Willis: Bob Nicholson’s misguided Tobias Rieder comments reveal deeper problems within Oilers management
  • Jonathan Willis: Ken Hitchcock knows why Edmonton has trouble exiting its zone, but lacks the players to fix it.
  • Lowetide: Trimming cap fat and adding speed and skill will shape Oilers’ offseason.
  • Jonathan Willis: Former Canucks architects Mike Gillis and Laurence Gilman should be considered for any vacant NHL GM job
  • Jonathan Willis: The Oilers need to drastically revamp their forward group.
  • Lowetide: Identifying the risk and the right price if the Oilers were to trade Adam Larsson (to Toronto?)
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ prospect Tyler Benson’s rookie AHL season a revelation.
  • Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers draft early, the WHL is loaded and there’s a lot of history.
  • Jonathan Willis: Analyzing how much the Oilers should be willing to spend on pending free agent Alex Chiasson.
  • Jonathan Willis: Keith Gretzky is a legitimate Oilers GM candidate, but would be a hard sell in Edmonton
  • Lowetide: How the Oilers can build a contender during Connor McDavid’s prime.
  • Jonathan Willis: The Oilers aren’t good, but this group has more potential than teams from the decade of darkness
  • Lowetide: Bob Nicholson’s search continues for the Oilers new tomorrow, but at a leisurely pace.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How Leon Draisaitl has found ‘another level’ by matching offensive wizardry with sound positioning.
  • Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers and the OHL.

OILERS AFTER 75

  • Oilers in 2015: 29-39-7, 65 points; goal differential -35
  • Oilers in 2016: 41-25-9, 91 points; goal differential +28
  • Oilers in 2017: 34-36-5, 73 points; goal differential -29
  • Oilers in 2018: 33-34-8, 74 points; goal differential -27

Oilers need five points in the final seven games to become the second best McDavid team among the four. No big deal but worth noting.

OILERS IN MARCH

  • Oilers in March 2016: 6-5-0, 12 points; goal differential -2
  • Oilers in March 2017: 7-3-1, 15 points; goal differential +15
  • Oilers in March 2018: 6-4-1, 13 points; goal differential +8
  • Oilers in March 2019: 6-4-1, 13 points; goal differential -2

WHAT TO EXPECT IN MARCH

  • On the road to: Columbus, Buffalo (Expected 0-1-1) (Actual 2-0-0)
  • At home to: Vancouver, Toronto, NY Rangers, NJD (Expected 2-1-1) (Actual 2-2-0)
  • On the road to: Arizona, Vegas, St. Louis (Expected: 0-2-1) (Actual 1-2-0)
  • At home to: Columbus,Ottawa, Los Angeles, Dallas, Anaheim (Expected: 3-1-1) (Actual 1-0-1)
  • Overall expected result: 5-5-4, 14 points in 14 games
  • Current results: 6-4-1, 13 points in 11 games

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

  • Sekera-Benning went 15-11 in 13:07, 4-7 shots, no goals but 5-3 HDSC. Impressive numbers from the third pairing, they were 3-2 HDSC with the Nuge line.
  • Klefbom-Larsson were 13-13 in 16:13, 8-6 shots, 0-1 goals and 2-3 HDSC. The GA is on the forwards, Klefbom was down low (and Larsson was at midway) and no one covered.
  • Nurse-Russell went 14-23 in 16:53, 9-4 shots, 2-0 goals and 5-2 HDSC, including 3-0 HDSC with the Cave line. That Nurse pass to Chiasson was golden. If he can do that 50 times a year the Oilers cap is screwed.
  • Mikko Koskinen stopped 31 of 35, .886. I don’t blame him on the OT goal, that was a breakaway by the time it was through.
  • NaturalStatTrick and NHL.com.

FORWARDS, LAST NIGHT

  • Draisaitl-McDavid-Kassian went 19-14 in 15:28, 8-8 shots, 1-1 goals and 5-3 HDSC. I thought all three played well, although there were five giveaways between 97 and 29. The goal was fantastic, all three men key to the play.
  • Lucic-Nuge-Chiasson were 9-13 in 10:34, 4-8 shots, 1-0 goals and 4-2 HDSC. Although it was a good night for the Nuge line, it’s pretty obvious a better set of wingers (including one who can push the river) is key to a second outscoring line.
  • Rieder-Cave-Gagner were 10-4 in 6:48, 4-2 shots, no goals and 3-1 HDSC. This line is getting good things done.
  • Gambardella-Brodziak-Currie went 1-8 in 5:01, 1-4 shots, no goals and 0-1 HDSC.

AUGUST 15, 2019

Hayden Hawkey, JD Dudek and Vincent Desharnais all need to be signed by August 15 or become free agents. Here are the numbers:

  • Hayden Hawkey: 38, 1.89 .919.
  • JD Dudek: 39, 7-5-12
  • Vincent Desharnais: 39, 5-7-12

Providence is going to the dance, selection show is late this afternoon. Hawkey is the key player here, Oilers gave up a fifth rounder for him. Desharnais, also a Providence player, is less likely imo to sign with Peter Chiarelli gone. Based on rumor and hearsay, that may also apply with John Marino, who is eligible for another year of college hockey.

YOUNG GOALIES

If Hawkey is signed, he’ll no doubt be a part of a four man minor league prospect group that includes Shane Starrett (36, 2.27 .921 in Bakersfield), Dylan Wells (22, 3.04 .912 in Wichita and 9, 3.01 .902 in the AHL) and Stuart Skinner (33, 3.32 .900 in Wichita and 6, 2.99 .879 in the AHL).

Starrett as a No. 3 goalie (starter in the AHL and first recall) makes sense to me, wonder if the new general manager will feel the same way. My guess for NHL-AHL depth chart next season:

  1. Mikko Koskinen 1A
  2. Anders Nilsson or Brian Elliott 1B
  3. Shane Starrett
  4. Dylan Wells
  5. Stuart Skinner
  6. Hayden Hawkey
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lawrenharris

Mark Hunter for GM! Mark Hunter for GM!

OriginalPouzar

I’ve been posting about a potential Hayden Hawkey signing but, with Providence in the Frozen 4, I guess his college career isn’t quite over yet.

Honestly, I don’t know how this NCAA post-season works – I mean, Providence lost to Boston College in the hockey east tournmanent but they are still in the “NCAA Tournament” it seems.

OriginalPouzar

ArmchairGM: Yeah, the Oilers have $71.7M committed to 16 players next season, so that leaves about $11M to sign 7 guys. I’m thinking that the new GM comes in with a sharp knife though, and will create more space.

Unfortunately a Sekera buyout us the lowest-hanging fruit ($3M is space next year) followed by a Gagner buyout ($2.133M). I’m not sure either is a great idea but the new GM will have no loyalty and will want the space to bring in his own guys

I am not on-board at all with any sort of Sekera buyout – why would we buy out one of our top d-men who is going to provide value (or close thereto) for his contract – there are enough anchor contracts on the is team to target for removal that a buy out of Sekera makes no sense – at least to me.

Buying out a player that provides value because his contract is a bit too high is the exact type of panic move in the name of immediate improvement that this team should not be making. If cap space cannot be created with less pain then management needs to be patient and realize that most anchor contracts fall away by their terms within a couple of years.

Glovjuice

Woodguy v2.0: Not really.

Here’s a list of goalies this year who have played over 700 minutes (all situations)

They are sorted by Goals Saved Above Average per 100 shots (all situations)

As per corsica.hockey (which is back online….)

PlayerGSAA/100
LAURENT.BROSSOIT1.94
THOMAS.GREISS1.93
JAROSLAV.HALAK1.82
BEN.BISHOP1.67
JOHN.GIBSON1.52
ROBIN.LEHNER1.36
JORDAN.BINNINGTON1.26
ALEXANDAR.GEORGIEV1.05
CURTIS.MCELHINNEY0.96
ANDREI.VASILEVSKIY0.96
ANTON.KHUDOBIN0.84
JACOB.MARKSTROM0.82
RYAN.MILLER0.70
COLLIN.DELIA0.58
COREY.CRAWFORD0.58
TUUKKA.RASK0.54
MATT.MURRAY0.53
CASEY.DESMITH0.52
JACK.CAMPBELL0.50
JUUSE.SAROS0.48
PEKKA.RINNE0.48
DARCY.KUEMPER0.41
CARTER.HART0.35
MARC-ANDRE.FLEURY0.30
BRIAN.ELLIOTT0.30
FREDERIK.ANDERSEN0.27
PHEONIX.COPLEY0.23
PETR.MRAZEK0.19
MACKENZIE.BLACKWOOD0.14
BRADEN.HOLTBY0.11
HENRIK.LUNDQVIST0.10
SEMYON.VARLAMOV0.08
CONNOR.HELLEBUYCK0.06
CAREY.PRICE0.04
SERGEI.BOBROVSKY0.03
PHILIPP.GRUBAUER-0.02
JIMMY.HOWARD-0.08
MIKKO.KOSKINEN-0.18 ************************
DAVID.RITTICH-0.18
JAMES.REIMER-0.20
CARTER.HUTTON-0.22
MIKE.SMITH-0.43
MARTIN.JONES-0.48
ANTHONY.STOLARZ-0.50
MALCOLM.SUBBAN-0.54
LOUIS.DOMINGUE-0.61
CAM.WARD-0.63
CRAIG.ANDERSON-0.72
ROBERTO.LUONGO-0.79
JAKE.ALLEN-0.84
JONATHAN.BERNIER-0.85
CORY.SCHNEIDER-0.94
LINUS.ULLMARK-0.96
JOONAS.KORPISALO-1.05
DEVAN.DUBNYK-1.09
ANDERS.NILSSON-1.11
CAM.TALBOT-1.22
KEITH.KINKAID-1.27
AARON.DELL-1.55
GARRET.SPARKS-1.67
ALEX.STALOCK-1.72
JONATHAN.QUICK-2.10
ANTTI.NIEMI-2.50
CHAD.JOHNSON-2.86

So here’s every goalie that has been better this year:

LAURENT.BROSSOIT1.94
THOMAS.GREISS1.93
JAROSLAV.HALAK1.82
BEN.BISHOP1.67
JOHN.GIBSON1.52
ROBIN.LEHNER1.36
JORDAN.BINNINGTON1.26
ALEXANDAR.GEORGIEV1.05
CURTIS.MCELHINNEY0.96
ANDREI.VASILEVSKIY0.96
ANTON.KHUDOBIN0.84
JACOB.MARKSTROM0.82
RYAN.MILLER0.70
COLLIN.DELIA0.58
COREY.CRAWFORD0.58
TUUKKA.RASK0.54
MATT.MURRAY0.53
CASEY.DESMITH0.52
JACK.CAMPBELL0.50
JUUSE.SAROS0.48
PEKKA.RINNE0.48
DARCY.KUEMPER0.41
CARTER.HART0.35
MARC-ANDRE.FLEURY0.30
BRIAN.ELLIOTT0.30
FREDERIK.ANDERSEN0.27
PHEONIX.COPLEY0.23
PETR.MRAZEK0.19
MACKENZIE.BLACKWOOD0.14
BRADEN.HOLTBY0.11
HENRIK.LUNDQVIST0.10
SEMYON.VARLAMOV0.08
CONNOR.HELLEBUYCK0.06
CAREY.PRICE0.04
SERGEI.BOBROVSKY0.03
PHILIPP.GRUBAUER-0.02
JIMMY.HOWARD-0.08

Here’s the same list with the FA’s broken out
JAROSLAV.HALAK 1.82
ROBIN.LEHNER1.36
CURTIS.MCELHINNEY0.96
JACOB.MARKSTROM0.82
RYAN.MILLER0.70
BRIAN.ELLIOTT0.30
PETR.MRAZEK0.19
SEMYON.VARLAMOV0.08
SERGEI.BOBROVSKY0.03
JIMMY.HOWARD-0.08

Here’s my take on each FA:

JAROSLAV.HALAK – Will BOS sign him again? Probably.Liked him forever.34 this summer.

ROBIN.LEHNER-great season after getting his mental health issues under control. Will NYI let him get to FA?Maybe if Bob is in the bag, but is Bob better these days?

CURTIS.MCELHINNEY – 35 year old career back up having a great season.I’d probably look at him as a back up for next year.Starter?That’s a long shot.Does CAR let him get to FA?

JACOB.MARKSTROM – VAN will have him signed before summer

RYAN.MILLER – Only wants to play near LA.Doesn’t need the money

BRIAN.ELLIOTT–maybe.Up and down career due to injuries, including this year.I’ve always liked him.My pick for 1B for next year.With Koskinen at $4.5 they can afford a $2MM back up

PETR.MRAZEK – best season of his career since he was a rookie and its still not great.Wouldn’t bet on his as starter, would pick up as back up if the music stopped and I didn’t have a chair.

SEMYON.VARLAMOV– Will cost at least $6MM I think, but I wouldn’t pay it.Injury history his huge.Might get less.

SERGEI.BOBROVSKY – Bob is getting paid and it will be too much.Probably $8MM

JIMMY.HOWARD– Steady Eddy forever.Just signed for $4MM for next year (thought he was still FA).35 in a week.

Gord knows I don’t defend EDM and especially Pete, but the Koskinen contract is below #8 on my things to worry about for next year.

no. 8. Seriously ? He has not provided reliable starter goaltending at all. no 8. Not a chance. This game is called goalie. Come on Woodguy.

ArmchairGM

OriginalPouzar: While I agree with Jimmy that Stralman realistically isn’t happening, I’m just giving my opinion as to the preferred off-season plan.I don’t even think that management is going to be targeting a Russell disposition and 2RD upgrade – although its tough to have that opinion without knowing who management will be.

100%, I agree – I would overpay a 2RD acquisition in terms of cap hit for a shot term (2 years).Unfortunately, i don’t think they will have the luxury of an over pay vis-a-vis cap space.Maybe if we had a legit starting tender and could go with a $1M back up (or Starrett for less) but they need to have an established 2nd goalie that will cost extra cap.

Yeah, the Oilers have $71.7M committed to 16 players next season, so that leaves about $11M to sign 7 guys. I’m thinking that the new GM comes in with a sharp knife though, and will create more space.

Unfortunately a Sekera buyout us the lowest-hanging fruit ($3M is space next year) followed by a Gagner buyout ($2.133M). I’m not sure either is a great idea but the new GM will have no loyalty and will want the space to bring in his own guys

jp

Pescador: I feel like I’m pounding on the “Upgrade KR for 2RD” drum as hard as anyone but I disagree with you.
The Oilers 2ill make the playoffs next season with
1. Koskinen 915 sv%
2. Healthy d-core as is
3. 25 goals on one side of RNH or Draisaitl
4. 15 on the other.
5. 3rd line that doesn’t give it all back.
Essentially upgrade the bottom six& find a top 6 winger preferably 2

Agreed.

jp

Scungilli Slushy: The thing with aggregate stats is they don’t show players who consistently make critical mistakes.

Players like Gagner and Eberle who had good stats and scoring totals at times, but who crapped the bed on critical mistakes over time, are a problem. Because they can only be top 6 players and they aren’t good enough at the end of the day on a strong team, so they bounce. Eberle’s re-up will be interesting, and I don’t want him back – he doesn’t have what Connor and Leon need. Will Eberle get paid? I bet he takes a haircut big time.

The Eberle haircut will mostly be because he’s has 32 points this year.

“Crapped the be on critical mistakes over time”. Eberle bailed on that goal vs Anaheim. And didn’t score in the playoffs. Can you remind me of other examples? Time seems to have washed them out of my mind, if they were ever there.

OriginalPouzar

ArmchairGM: If you have a better idea I’d love to hear it.

As an aside, I would overpay for the right 2RD in salary (as long as several of Chiarelli’s contracts are gone this summer), but not in term. If it took $5.5M x 2 to get Stralman to come (subject to approval from my pro scouts) I would do it.

While I agree with Jimmy that Stralman realistically isn’t happening, I’m just giving my opinion as to the preferred off-season plan. I don’t even think that management is going to be targeting a Russell disposition and 2RD upgrade – although its tough to have that opinion without knowing who management will be.

100%, I agree – I would overpay a 2RD acquisition in terms of cap hit for a shot term (2 years). Unfortunately, i don’t think they will have the luxury of an over pay vis-a-vis cap space. Maybe if we had a legit starting tender and could go with a $1M back up (or Starrett for less) but they need to have an established 2nd goalie that will cost extra cap.

ArmchairGM

JimmyV1965: No offence OP, but you have mentioned this numerous times. We simply aren’t getting Stralman for 2 x $4.5. Maybe a cup contender does. But not us. If we get Stralman, it will have to be a massive overpay. We are not fixing this problem with UFAs.

If you have a better idea I’d love to hear it.

As an aside, I would overpay for the right 2RD in salary (as long as several of Chiarelli’s contracts are gone this summer), but not in term. If it took $5.5M x 2 to get Stralman to come (subject to approval from my pro scouts) I would do it.

OriginalPouzar

Glass:
Hey does anyone know where Lowetide gets his data from? I’m talking about the corsi/shots/gf stuff the morning after a game. I have an idea for a school project using that data – close to graduating from a coding program.

Natural Stat update that for each game, essentially, in real time.

Bruce McCurdy

LMHF#1:
Bruce McCurdy,

Re-read Bruce.

Essentially every 07-08 home game live.

And I wrote about them and broke them down on HF.

I’m pretty sure you know this.

Never got into HF Boards at any point for more than a driveby. Always preferred this place & mc79.

Doesn’t change the general point that the 2007-08 Oilers were a 47.8% SF% & 47.1% GF% team that went on a ridiculous heater in 3 point games. They were 22-35-25 in regulation & 19-6 in gimmick time.

Professor Q

Glass:
Hey does anyone know where Lowetide gets his data from? I’m talking about the corsi/shots/gf stuff the morning after a game. I have an idea for a school project using that data – close to graduating from a coding program.

NaturalStatTrick, NHL.com, Behind The Net, Vollman/Hockey Abstract and others for NHLE and those circle charts he used to do, etc.

He always (usually…) lists where the data and calculations are from.

JimmyV1965

OriginalPouzar: Preaching to the choir – I have been opining that 2RD is the #1 priority for years.

Show me some Stralman – 2 X $4.25M.

No offence OP, but you have mentioned this numerous times. We simply aren’t getting Stralman for 2 x $4.5. Maybe a cup contender does. But not us. If we get Stralman, it will have to be a massive overpay. We are not fixing this problem with UFAs.

LMHF#1

Bruce McCurdy,

Re-read Bruce.

Essentially every 07-08 home game live.

And I wrote about them and broke them down on HF.

I’m pretty sure you know this.

Reja

Glovjuice: LOL, hug hug for Koskinen. He’s terrible. Glovhand is ECHL level. One of the worst signings in Oilers history.

Pick a save percentage you think he will Finnish at next year. I have no idea what a ECHL payroll for a team is per year but I’m willing to say it’s under 4.5 mil

Reja

Woodguy v2.0:
Reja,

He’s our Goalie for the next 3 years Talbot checked out 2 month into the season

A free agent didn’t give a shit about his performance and next contract?

Both parties new he wasn’t coming back they tried pumping his tires for him and his trade value. He played well in few games but the vast majority he had zero confidence first shot goal got in his head like the yipps in golf. He was playing every shot not to go in instead of just making the saves and playing loose After the previous year performance .he new he had to get off to good start it’s to bad he couldn’t regain his form like the playoff year.

Glass

Hey does anyone know where Lowetide gets his data from? I’m talking about the corsi/shots/gf stuff the morning after a game. I have an idea for a school project using that data – close to graduating from a coding program.

Woodguy v2.0

Note about Koskinen contract.

A year too long for sure. Don’t see him turning down 2 years at that price.

Probably 500K too much give or take but Pete is gonna Pete

Woodguy v2.0

Reja,

He’s our Goalie for the next 3 years Talbot checked out 2 month into the season

A free agent didn’t give a shit about his performance and next contract?

Woodguy v2.0

Glovjuice: The Koskinen signing is worse than the Russel signing and is downright lawsuit worthy for season seat holders.Dreadful signing. How in the hell was it allowed to happen.

Not really.

Here’s a list of goalies this year who have played over 700 minutes (all situations)

They are sorted by Goals Saved Above Average per 100 shots (all situations)

As per corsica.hockey (which is back online….)

Player GSAA/100
LAURENT.BROSSOIT 1.94
THOMAS.GREISS 1.93
JAROSLAV.HALAK 1.82
BEN.BISHOP 1.67
JOHN.GIBSON 1.52
ROBIN.LEHNER 1.36
JORDAN.BINNINGTON 1.26
ALEXANDAR.GEORGIEV 1.05
CURTIS.MCELHINNEY 0.96
ANDREI.VASILEVSKIY 0.96
ANTON.KHUDOBIN 0.84
JACOB.MARKSTROM 0.82
RYAN.MILLER 0.70
COLLIN.DELIA 0.58
COREY.CRAWFORD 0.58
TUUKKA.RASK 0.54
MATT.MURRAY 0.53
CASEY.DESMITH 0.52
JACK.CAMPBELL 0.50
JUUSE.SAROS 0.48
PEKKA.RINNE 0.48
DARCY.KUEMPER 0.41
CARTER.HART 0.35
MARC-ANDRE.FLEURY 0.30
BRIAN.ELLIOTT 0.30
FREDERIK.ANDERSEN 0.27
PHEONIX.COPLEY 0.23
PETR.MRAZEK 0.19
MACKENZIE.BLACKWOOD 0.14
BRADEN.HOLTBY 0.11
HENRIK.LUNDQVIST 0.10
SEMYON.VARLAMOV 0.08
CONNOR.HELLEBUYCK 0.06
CAREY.PRICE 0.04
SERGEI.BOBROVSKY 0.03
PHILIPP.GRUBAUER -0.02
JIMMY.HOWARD -0.08
MIKKO.KOSKINEN -0.18 ************************
DAVID.RITTICH -0.18
JAMES.REIMER -0.20
CARTER.HUTTON -0.22
MIKE.SMITH -0.43
MARTIN.JONES -0.48
ANTHONY.STOLARZ -0.50
MALCOLM.SUBBAN -0.54
LOUIS.DOMINGUE -0.61
CAM.WARD -0.63
CRAIG.ANDERSON -0.72
ROBERTO.LUONGO -0.79
JAKE.ALLEN -0.84
JONATHAN.BERNIER -0.85
CORY.SCHNEIDER -0.94
LINUS.ULLMARK -0.96
JOONAS.KORPISALO -1.05
DEVAN.DUBNYK -1.09
ANDERS.NILSSON -1.11
CAM.TALBOT -1.22
KEITH.KINKAID -1.27
AARON.DELL -1.55
GARRET.SPARKS -1.67
ALEX.STALOCK -1.72
JONATHAN.QUICK -2.10
ANTTI.NIEMI -2.50
CHAD.JOHNSON -2.86

So here’s every goalie that has been better this year:

LAURENT.BROSSOIT 1.94
THOMAS.GREISS 1.93
JAROSLAV.HALAK 1.82
BEN.BISHOP 1.67
JOHN.GIBSON 1.52
ROBIN.LEHNER 1.36
JORDAN.BINNINGTON 1.26
ALEXANDAR.GEORGIEV 1.05
CURTIS.MCELHINNEY 0.96
ANDREI.VASILEVSKIY 0.96
ANTON.KHUDOBIN 0.84
JACOB.MARKSTROM 0.82
RYAN.MILLER 0.70
COLLIN.DELIA 0.58
COREY.CRAWFORD 0.58
TUUKKA.RASK 0.54
MATT.MURRAY 0.53
CASEY.DESMITH 0.52
JACK.CAMPBELL 0.50
JUUSE.SAROS 0.48
PEKKA.RINNE 0.48
DARCY.KUEMPER 0.41
CARTER.HART 0.35
MARC-ANDRE.FLEURY 0.30
BRIAN.ELLIOTT 0.30
FREDERIK.ANDERSEN 0.27
PHEONIX.COPLEY 0.23
PETR.MRAZEK 0.19
MACKENZIE.BLACKWOOD 0.14
BRADEN.HOLTBY 0.11
HENRIK.LUNDQVIST 0.10
SEMYON.VARLAMOV 0.08
CONNOR.HELLEBUYCK 0.06
CAREY.PRICE 0.04
SERGEI.BOBROVSKY 0.03
PHILIPP.GRUBAUER -0.02
JIMMY.HOWARD -0.08

Here’s the same list with the FA’s broken out
JAROSLAV.HALAK 1.82
ROBIN.LEHNER 1.36
CURTIS.MCELHINNEY 0.96
JACOB.MARKSTROM 0.82
RYAN.MILLER 0.70
BRIAN.ELLIOTT 0.30
PETR.MRAZEK 0.19
SEMYON.VARLAMOV 0.08
SERGEI.BOBROVSKY 0.03
JIMMY.HOWARD -0.08

Here’s my take on each FA:

JAROSLAV.HALAK – Will BOS sign him again? Probably. Liked him forever. 34 this summer.

ROBIN.LEHNER -great season after getting his mental health issues under control. Will NYI let him get to FA? Maybe if Bob is in the bag, but is Bob better these days?

CURTIS.MCELHINNEY – 35 year old career back up having a great season. I’d probably look at him as a back up for next year. Starter? That’s a long shot. Does CAR let him get to FA?

JACOB.MARKSTROM – VAN will have him signed before summer

RYAN.MILLER – Only wants to play near LA. Doesn’t need the money

BRIAN.ELLIOTT – maybe. Up and down career due to injuries, including this year. I’ve always liked him. My pick for 1B for next year. With Koskinen at $4.5 they can afford a $2MM back up

PETR.MRAZEK – best season of his career since he was a rookie and its still not great. Wouldn’t bet on his as starter, would pick up as back up if the music stopped and I didn’t have a chair.

SEMYON.VARLAMOV – Will cost at least $6MM I think, but I wouldn’t pay it. Injury history his huge. Might get less.

SERGEI.BOBROVSKY – Bob is getting paid and it will be too much. Probably $8MM

JIMMY.HOWARD – Steady Eddy forever. Just signed for $4MM for next year (thought he was still FA). 35 in a week.

Gord knows I don’t defend EDM and especially Pete, but the Koskinen contract is below #8 on my things to worry about for next year.

Glovjuice

Reja: He’s our Goalie for the next 3 years Talbot checked out 1 month into the season.kosh wants to be here fans have to get behind him next year confidence is a thing especially for a Goaltender.Kosh is a young 31 with the light workload in the KHL I’m not worried about his age. When he starts next year him and his family should be more adjusted to North America.i like kosh I think he has it in him to have a Matt Murray type of heater season.

LOL, hug hug for Koskinen. He’s terrible. Glovhand is ECHL level. One of the worst signings in Oilers history.

Reja

Georgexs: No need to be sorry.

He struggled.

Let’s check Talbot in that same period.

3.59 GAA
.892 sv%
2.15 GSAA

I’m not entirely sure how NST calculates GSAA. It seems to say Koski let in 2 more shots than average and Talbot stopped 2 more shots than average. Given both their sv% was in the 80’s, they didn’t do much better/worse than expected apparently.

Most of those games were played without Klef. The losing with Hitch started at that point. The first 8 of those games in your window were played without Russell, so without 3 of our top 4 D.

Don’t know what to expect of any goalie at that point. Oh wait, I do know, an expected sv% below .900. Koski didn’t rescue them so Talbot saw more games. Talbot didn’t rescue them either. His contract was up. He was traded. Koski was given a puzzling contract that was way out of line with how he performed.

You don’t have to try too hard to make a case against Koski. He hasn’t been anywhere near as hot as when Hitch started. He gets beat glove side way too often. Pucks slip through places he should have covered. If he doesn’t play like a starter, we’re stuck with him for the next 3 years. See, easy. Feel better? I don’t.

He’s our Goalie for the next 3 years Talbot checked out 2 months into the season.kosh wants to be here fans have to get behind him next year confidence is a thing especially for a Goaltender.Kosh is a young 31 with the light workload in the KHL I’m not worried about his age. When he starts next year him and his family should be more adjusted to North America.i like kosh I think he has it in him to have a Matt Murray type of heater season.

Glovjuice

Georgexs:
frjohnk,

“Bottom 6 have showed they can not score even close to league avg 4th line levels. The numbers without a top 4 Dman are ghastly. The numbers do uptick somewhat with a top 4 Dman but are still not good. Doesnt matter the coach.”

For scoring, the thing that hurts the most is Lucic and JP not being able to play top 6. PC was counting on both of those things when he dealt Eberle last season. But TMac came out of camp with KY on the first line and Lucic went into an awful spiral following Christmas and he’s stayed there since.

I’ve tried to defend Lucic through most of it. To me, it’s just a bad idea to run down your players whatever you think of the HC or GM. I can be hard on management but I support whichever players take the ice for our team. It’s hard to make it work otherwise.

But we badly needed Lucic to at least semi-perform in a top 6 role, which means scoring at close to his career rate. That’s the way he needed to lead. The sad thing is he’s gone so meekly and quietly. He hasn’t even raged or kicked as his powers diminished. This is an ugly town for that kind of thing. Lucic was used to stable line mates. Coming to EDM, he must’ve thought he would play with CMD for years and years. He should’ve considered what would happen if that doesn’t work out. What will playing and living in EDM look like if the team can’t win and he can’t score and is the extra money worth it? He should’ve taken LA’s offer. Sun, anonymity, kids get to walk to the beach.

i don’t agree with “Doesn’t matter the coach” because I think some coaches create better systems for their players. They think about how they can encourage them, build them up, ways to cover up their flaws and give them little edges here and there. They work with whatever they have. They gain trust by giving trust. Build them up. Not tear them down. The players on the other team and one of the most knowledgeable fan bases in hockey will take care of that.

Hitch has gone even further than McLellan in leaning on CMD-Drai-RNH. He’s put the vehicle in ludicrous mode. I like the try of the farm guys. I hope he rewards that.

Yup. I’ve been happy with all my job changes over the years. But, once, made a mistake. And, it’s haunted me to some extent ever since. Lucic made the same error.

Woodguy v2.0

frjohnk:
Hitch coaching
Big 3 ( 97, 29, 93) on the bench, Nurse on the ice ( so bottom 6 forwards with 1 of top 4 pairs)
GF/60 1.36
GF% 53%
309 minutes

So they score at levels less than league avg 4th lines ( about 1.8 GF/60) but they are at least positive GF%

Hitch coaching
Big 3 on the bench, Klefbom on the ice ( so bottom 6 forwards with 1 of top 4 pairs)
GF/60 0.94
GF% 43%
191 minutes

Score less than with Nurse above,( well below 4th levels) but also negative GF%

Hitch coaching
Big 3, Nurse and Klefbom on the bench( so these numbers are mostly bottom 6 forwards with 3rd pairing D)
GF/60 0.94
GF% 27%
383 minutes

Wow.

Todd coaching
Big 3 on the bench, Nurse on the ice ( so bottom 6 forwards with 1 of top 4 pairs)
GF/60 1.34
GF% 33%
134 minutes

Todd coaching
Big 3 on the bench, Klefbom on the ice ( so bottom 6 forwards with 1 of top 4 pairs)
GF/60 1.44
GF% 43%
125 minutes

Todd coaching
Big 3, Nurse and Klefbom on the bench( so these numbers are mostly bottom 6 forwards with 3rd pairing D)
GF/60 1.02
GF% 25%
117 minutes

Bottom 6 have showed they can not score even close to league avg 4th line levels. The numbers without a top 4 Dman are ghastly.The numbers do uptick somewhat with a top 4 Dman but are still not good.Doesnt matter the coach.

Good stuff Padre, thanks for the work.

If you break out RNH its pretty ugly too.

RNH without 97/29 with 77 – 35%GF

RNH without 97/29 with 25 – 45% GF

RNH without 97/29/25/77 – 47.6% GF

Also,

Klef’s GF% this year is shit again.

In previous years it was due to inflated Goals Against compared to the rest.

This year though, the SH% hits the ditch and while Dmen can improve the CF% and therefore GF%, they don’t move the needle at all on SH%. That needle is moved by forwards exclusively.

Klef’s PDO this year:

With Larsson PDO 969 – SH% 4.13 – SV% .928
Without Larsson PDO 1006 – SH% 8.82 – SV% .918

Larsson has nothing to do with the SH% either.

I was sad to see Klef’s GF% in the dumper again this year, but quite heartened when I saw it was SH% driven.

Reja

Georgexs:
frjohnk,

“Bottom 6 have showed they can not score even close to league avg 4th line levels. The numbers without a top 4 Dman are ghastly. The numbers do uptick somewhat with a top 4 Dman but are still not good. Doesnt matter the coach.”

For scoring, the thing that hurts the most is Lucic and JP not being able to play top 6. PC was counting on both of those things when he dealt Eberle last season. But TMac came out of camp with KY on the first line and Lucic went into an awful spiral following Christmas and he’s stayed there since.

I’ve tried to defend Lucic through most of it. To me, it’s just a bad idea to run down your players whatever you think of the HC or GM. I can be hard on management but I support whichever players take the ice for our team. It’s hard to make it work otherwise.

But we badly needed Lucic to at least semi-perform in a top 6 role, which means scoring at close to his career rate. That’s the way he needed to lead. The sad thing is he’s gone so meekly and quietly. He hasn’t even raged or kicked as his powers diminished. This is an ugly town for that kind of thing. Lucic was used to stable line mates. Coming to EDM, he must’ve thought he would play with CMD for years and years. He should’ve considered what would happen if that doesn’t work out. What will playing and living in EDM look like if the team can’t win and he can’t score and is the extra money worth it? He should’ve taken LA’s offer. Sun, anonymity, kids get to walk to the beach.

i don’t agree with “Doesn’t matter the coach” because I think some coaches create better systems for their players. They think about how they can encourage them, build them up, ways to cover up their flaws and give them little edges here and there. They work with whatever they have. They gain trust by giving trust. Build them up. Not tear them down. The players on the other team and one of the most knowledgeable fan bases in hockey will take care of that.

Hitch has gone even further than McLellan in leaning on CMD-Drai-RNH. He’s put the vehicle in ludicrous mode. I like the try of the farm guys. I hope he rewards that.

Well said

Woodguy v2.0

Re: consistent goalies

None of them are.

Gibson is by far the best goalie in the league imo and here’s a 14 game stretch from this year:

4-Feb 0.857
2-Feb 0.571
23-Jan 0.839
19-Jan 0.935
17-Jan 1.000
15-Jan 0.880
13-Jan 0.882
11-Jan 0.829
9-Jan 0.933
6-Jan 0.833
4-Jan 0.929
31-Dec 0.943
29-Dec 0.833

I buy the “over worked” narrative as well and we can see this here too I think.

I watch a lot of hockey and no goalie is consistent and every goalie lets in stinkers at the wrong time when they’re not on a heater.

The smart teams rarely get above 65 gp for their starters let alone a 70+ gp pace.

EDM is not smart.

Georgexs

OriginalPouzar: Sorry, I don’t buy that workload argument at all, in fact, its somewhat the opposite – After Koskinen’s famous heater dissipated in the fall, he went on a two-month ice cold streak – I don’t think there was a single game from December 15 through February 15 where he was solid from start to finish.

In that time, he played 16 games and Talbot 13.He had an .881 Save Percentage, a 3.75 GAA and a GSAA of -2.15.

No need to be sorry.

He struggled.

Let’s check Talbot in that same period.

3.59 GAA
.892 sv%
2.15 GSAA

I’m not entirely sure how NST calculates GSAA. It seems to say Koski let in 2 more shots than average and Talbot stopped 2 more shots than average. Given both their sv% was in the 80’s, they didn’t do much better/worse than expected apparently.

Most of those games were played without Klef. The losing with Hitch started at that point. The first 8 of those games in your window were played without Russell, so without 3 of our top 4 D.

Don’t know what to expect of any goalie at that point. Oh wait, I do know, an expected sv% below .900. Koski didn’t rescue them so Talbot saw more games. Talbot didn’t rescue them either. His contract was up. He was traded. Koski was given a puzzling contract that was way out of line with how he performed.

You don’t have to try too hard to make a case against Koski. He hasn’t been anywhere near as hot as when Hitch started. He gets beat glove side way too often. Pucks slip through places he should have covered. If he doesn’t play like a starter, we’re stuck with him for the next 3 years. See, easy. Feel better? I don’t.

Glovjuice

OriginalPouzar: From accounts, yes, Kurri’s verbal was a part of the reason they focussed on Koskinen.

Yes, I heard that, at the end, Talbot wanted to be moved (to be clear, I’m quite certain he really liked the city and being an Oiler but that was just a function of how the season went and, essentially losing his net.

Not a great market for goalies but that is no reason to commit term and money to one that has been below average, 5 months before free agency – lets not forget how bad he was playing at the time (and had been for a month).I think the contract is more of a risk than entering the off-season with no goalies signed – the risk is 3 year and it looks really bad right now.

That back-up needs to be a tender than we are confident can take over the starters’ role for stretches.I think we know he’s going to need to.

I’m sure he’ll work very hard but I don’t think his overall game is going to get much better at 31 and, as far as becoming more comfortable on the ice surface (angles, etc.), well, if that has been the issue, it doesn’t exude confidence that, after a full season, he hasn’t improved at all and, to my eye, has regressed as far a angles go.

The Koskinen signing is worse than the Russel signing and is downright lawsuit worthy for season seat holders. Dreadful signing. How in the hell was it allowed to happen.

leadfarmer

OriginalPouzar,

You can’t compare small sample sizes to other small sample sizes. It’s funny hearing a goalies worst stretch of the season only cost the team two goals compared to average starter.. That’s not half bad
I can’t tell if Koskinen will settle to be a good starter but I can tell Old Dusty Relic’s game plan would still eat a good goalie alive.
The only consistent thing about this team is throwing the goalie to the wolves

OriginalPouzar

leadfarmer:
OriginalPouzar,

If you have a save percentage of 880 and GSAA is only -2 you know your defense is terrible.
Yeah you suck cause you posted an 880 save percentage when an avg goalie should have easily posted a 885 save percentage.
It’s a big deal for these goalies coming over from Russia as you can tell by him not getting any games the first month.His contract was stupid but I’m curious how he plays next year when things are a bit more familiar

Of note, in that same time frame, Talbot’s GSAA was +2.

OriginalPouzar

Pescador: I feel like I’m pounding on the “Upgrade KR for 2RD” drum as hard as anyone but I disagree with you.
The Oilers 2ill make the playoffs next season with
1. Koskinen 915 sv%
2. Healthy d-core as is
3. 25 goals on one side of RNH or Draisaitl
4. 15 on the other.
5. 3rd line that doesn’t give it all back.
Essentially upgrade the bottom six& find a top 6 winger preferably 2

Not upgrading 2RD negatively effects the potential for each of 1, 3 and 4 to happen.

OriginalPouzar

If Eberle is willing to sign in the $3.5M range, that has the potential to be a massive value contract.

leadfarmer

OriginalPouzar,

If you have a save percentage of 880 and GSAA is only -2 you know your defense is terrible.
Yeah you suck cause you posted an 880 save percentage when an avg goalie should have easily posted a 885 save percentage.
It’s a big deal for these goalies coming over from Russia as you can tell by him not getting any games the first month. His contract was stupid but I’m curious how he plays next year when things are a bit more familiar

OriginalPouzar

leadfarmer:
OriginalPouzar,

You know you pretty much describe every meh starter in the league.You like to Talk consistency.Talk about Murray’s consistency. How about Rittich consistency.Allen?Jones? Bob?How about Dubnyks consistency?Holtby?Rask is famous for his inconsistency?Bishop? The problem with goalies that are not elite is that they are consistently inconsistent.
The key is to have a backup that you can run with for 10 games while your starter goes through his consistently inconsistent patch

Of course all goalies go through slumps here and there but I don’t call what we’ve seen from Koskinen general consistent play with some slump – the swings have been much more pronounced. He literally has only had two stretches of good play – the heater in the fall and the apx 10 games after the trade deadline. He had a massive two month ice cold stretch and, now, after his post-deadline heater has turned cold for the last 5 or 6 games.

That is not starting goalending, in my opinion, as the team cannot be rely on their tender.

OriginalPouzar

Georgexs: You could be right about his inconsistency. I’ve never bothered to check. Maybe his sv% fluctuates more than other starters.

But other starters don’t get the workload he gets either. Hitch and TMac both lean on their starters much more than usual. I’d blame the quality of the backups but some of those backups under TMac are still in the league. And Talbot will probably find work as well.

Sorry, I don’t buy that workload argument at all, in fact, its somewhat the opposite – After Koskinen’s famous heater dissipated in the fall, he went on a two-month ice cold streak – I don’t think there was a single game from December 15 through February 15 where he was solid from start to finish.

In that time, he played 16 games and Talbot 13. He had an .881 Save Percentage, a 3.75 GAA and a GSAA of -2.15.

Georgexs

Johnny skid: your example did not help my position.hitch’s comments are not out of the ordinary for a coach who is trying to motivate a team to play better.From my views of the coach this team is lucky to have him.

No worries.

Georgexs

frjohnk,

“Bottom 6 have showed they can not score even close to league avg 4th line levels. The numbers without a top 4 Dman are ghastly. The numbers do uptick somewhat with a top 4 Dman but are still not good. Doesnt matter the coach.”

For scoring, the thing that hurts the most is Lucic and JP not being able to play top 6. PC was counting on both of those things when he dealt Eberle last season. But TMac came out of camp with KY on the first line and Lucic went into an awful spiral following Christmas and he’s stayed there since.

I’ve tried to defend Lucic through most of it. To me, it’s just a bad idea to run down your players whatever you think of the HC or GM. I can be hard on management but I support whichever players take the ice for our team. It’s hard to make it work otherwise.

But we badly needed Lucic to at least semi-perform in a top 6 role, which means scoring at close to his career rate. That’s the way he needed to lead. The sad thing is he’s gone so meekly and quietly. He hasn’t even raged or kicked as his powers diminished. This is an ugly town for that kind of thing. Lucic was used to stable line mates. Coming to EDM, he must’ve thought he would play with CMD for years and years. He should’ve considered what would happen if that doesn’t work out. What will playing and living in EDM look like if the team can’t win and he can’t score and is the extra money worth it? He should’ve taken LA’s offer. Sun, anonymity, kids get to walk to the beach.

i don’t agree with “Doesn’t matter the coach” because I think some coaches create better systems for their players. They think about how they can encourage them, build them up, ways to cover up their flaws and give them little edges here and there. They work with whatever they have. They gain trust by giving trust. Build them up. Not tear them down. The players on the other team and one of the most knowledgeable fan bases in hockey will take care of that.

Hitch has gone even further than McLellan in leaning on CMD-Drai-RNH. He’s put the vehicle in ludicrous mode. I like the try of the farm guys. I hope he rewards that.

OriginalPouzar

pts2pndr: Love the positivety but until they solve the second pairing right D spot the team will wander in the non playoff wilderness. Russel is not the answer yet the coaching staff sees him as the best answer at this time. This should be the teams number one priority this off season but I fear it will be same old same old! Getting new oars for the boat and ignoring the hole in the hull is a fools errand. This is us.

Preaching to the choir – I have been opining that 2RD is the #1 priority for years.

Show me some Stralman – 2 X $4.25M.

OriginalPouzar

Reja: You knowKurri had to have a big say on Kosh sounds like Talbot didn’t want to stay. There’s not much in the free agent market next year.I still was shocked by term and dollars if they sign a solid back up for 2 mil they’ll be a good tandom. Kosh has the athleticism and desire I think he’ll work on the Quickness of shots from different anglesthen he’s used to in the KHL and his glove this off season.

From accounts, yes, Kurri’s verbal was a part of the reason they focussed on Koskinen.

Yes, I heard that, at the end, Talbot wanted to be moved (to be clear, I’m quite certain he really liked the city and being an Oiler but that was just a function of how the season went and, essentially losing his net.

Not a great market for goalies but that is no reason to commit term and money to one that has been below average, 5 months before free agency – lets not forget how bad he was playing at the time (and had been for a month). I think the contract is more of a risk than entering the off-season with no goalies signed – the risk is 3 year and it looks really bad right now.

That back-up needs to be a tender than we are confident can take over the starters’ role for stretches. I think we know he’s going to need to.

I’m sure he’ll work very hard but I don’t think his overall game is going to get much better at 31 and, as far as becoming more comfortable on the ice surface (angles, etc.), well, if that has been the issue, it doesn’t exude confidence that, after a full season, he hasn’t improved at all and, to my eye, has regressed as far a angles go.

Pescador

pts2pndr: Love the positivety but until they solve the second pairing right D spot the team will wander in the non playoff wilderness. Russel is not the answer yet the coaching staff sees him as the best answer at this time. This should be the teams number one priority this off season but I fear it will be same old same old! Getting new oars for the boat and ignoring the hole in the hull is a fools errand. This is us.

I feel like I’m pounding on the “Upgrade KR for 2RD” drum as hard as anyone but I disagree with you.
The Oilers 2ill make the playoffs next season with
1. Koskinen 915 sv%
2. Healthy d-core as is
3. 25 goals on one side of RNH or Draisaitl
4. 15 on the other.
5. 3rd line that doesn’t give it all back.
Essentially upgrade the bottom six & find a top 6 winger preferably 2

Pescador

leadfarmer:
I do wonder how hard they go after Eberle given how in love this team is with ex-Oilers

I doubt it, I mean we’re not talking about mgmt or the draft

Johnny skid

Georgexs: I have examples of the opposite.

I specifically remember when he started he was pumping everyone’s tires. Our strength is our goaltending. Our group is grinding hard. We’re picking things up fast. It’s a real privilege to develop a guy like JP. I know he called out the referees after that Vancouver game.

I didn’t stay tuned when the losing started. Just remembered hearing at some point (Firiedman?) how Hitch was fed up and ready to quit. I’d say noise but things that end up in the NHL media seem to be placed there. Also heard how the players needed Hitch to back off at some point, be more positive in the dressing room.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/ken-hitchocks-oilers-future-depend-positive-tone/

There’s the “coaches can’t want it more than the players” bit:

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/time-ken-hitchcock-stop-criticizing-oilers-players/

Brian Burke(!) summed it up: “In the player’s minds, you’re either in the foxhole with them or you’re the enemy.” Wow, I never saw this before.

I mostly remember McLellan’s antics. Maybe I’m mixing them up.

I’ve learned to distrust coaches who are cozy with the local media.

your example did not help my position. hitch’s comments are not out of the ordinary for a coach who is trying to motivate a team to play better. From my views of the coach this team is lucky to have him.

leadfarmer

I do wonder how hard they go after Eberle given how in love this team is with ex-Oilers

Primetime

Reja: Game 6 was a masterpiece. Game 7 Carolina just smothered us I think it was Pisani that hit the post with 3 minutes left to tie it up. Only the hockey Gods know what the outcome would have been. Myself I believe 100 percent we win if Rolosondoesn’t go down which makes him a Number 1 for this fan. The following years with the team we had I thought he played well before gettingrun out of town.

Totally appreciate your viewpoint. We can agree to disagree but still be united in our Oiler fandom misery of losing that damned 7th game!

Pescador

Georgexs: Nope. Only one other team with the same distinction.

Which is crazy,
even crazier if he hits 50 without at least one

Pescador

Georgexs: The theory was TMac = Hitch. You’re saying it doesn’t hold water. Then you’re saying no difference with Klef. Same record, really. So ya, it’s all the flawed roster. If it’s all the flawed roster, then TMac = Hitch. No difference. Which was the theory.

I didn’t say that the theory didn’t hold water,
You said it when you posted “my post was not so excellent”
You based that on something that godot pointed out,
That’s my theory anyway,
Spider Spider-
https://youtu.be/v8wJt59Q6So
Your Pesci in this scene btw, I’m Spider

leadfarmer

OriginalPouzar,

You know you pretty much describe every meh starter in the league. You like to Talk consistency. Talk about Murray’s consistency. How about Rittich consistency. Allen? Jones? Bob? How about Dubnyks consistency? Holtby? Rask is famous for his inconsistency? Bishop? The problem with goalies that are not elite is that they are consistently inconsistent.
The key is to have a backup that you can run with for 10 games while your starter goes through his consistently inconsistent patch

Georgexs

Pescador: Does he or any other Oiler have a hatty this season?

Nope. Only one other team with the same distinction.

leadfarmer

OriginalPouzar,

Healthy D doesn’t mean you allow yourself to get outshot by the dregs of the league.
At least we got over 25 shots on the Sens. First time in 3 games we broke 20 shots
Now I don’t have the numbers but I’m willing to bet that teams that don’t get 20 shots in a game unless they have big score effects tend to not win games much

Georgexs

OriginalPouzar: Thank you for crunching the numbers but what they don’t show is that they are a function of heaters and cold streaks and Koskinen has shown a complete inability to be consistent over the course of the season.Aside from the really hot stretch when he took the next over in the fall and the 10 game stretch after the deadline, he’s been ice cold, including the last 5-6 games with the fully healthy D.

His overall numbers are “OK” but, in my mind, a starting tender needs to be much more “level” than Koskinen.

You could be right about his inconsistency. I’ve never bothered to check. Maybe his sv% fluctuates more than other starters.

But other starters don’t get the workload he gets either. Hitch and TMac both lean on their starters much more than usual. I’d blame the quality of the backups but some of those backups under TMac are still in the league. And Talbot will probably find work as well.