Loose Change

by Lowetide

There are some games you’re going to win no matter what, it just seems like there aren’t many for this team. Edmonton’s theme for the evening was “Loose Change” at both ends, cash and carry. I had a blast, not going to lie.

THE ATHLETIC

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group. INSANE NEW OFFER IS HERE!

  • New Lowetide: What Mark Hunter’s draft record in Toronto means for his Oilers GM candidacy.
  • Lowetide: Colby Cave and Joe Gambardella build late-season resumes with Edmonton.
  • Lowetide: The Oilers made a rare move and shopped the QMJHL at the 2018 draft. It could happen again.
  • Eric Duhatschek: Sorting through the organizational problems in Ottawa and Edmonton.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: After a year of despair, Oilers prospect Cameron Hebig grateful for latest chapter with the Condors
  • Jonathan Willis: Bob Nicholson’s misguided Tobias Rieder comments reveal deeper problems within Oilers management
  • Jonathan Willis: Ken Hitchcock knows why Edmonton has trouble exiting its zone, but lacks the players to fix it.
  • Lowetide: Trimming cap fat and adding speed and skill will shape Oilers’ offseason.
  • Jonathan Willis: Former Canucks architects Mike Gillis and Laurence Gilman should be considered for any vacant NHL GM job
  • Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers draft early, the WHL is loaded and there’s a lot of history.
  • Jonathan Willis: Analyzing how much the Oilers should be willing to spend on pending free agent Alex Chiasson.
  • Jonathan Willis: Keith Gretzky is a legitimate Oilers GM candidate, but would be a hard sell in Edmonton
  • Lowetide: How the Oilers can build a contender during Connor McDavid’s prime.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How Leon Draisaitl has found ‘another level’ by matching offensive wizardry with sound positioning.
  • Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers and the OHL.

OILERS AFTER 76

  • Oilers in 2015: 29-40-7, 65 points; goal differential -37
  • Oilers in 2016: 42-25-9, 93 points; goal differential +29
  • Oilers in 2017: 34-36-6, 73 points; goal differential -30
  • Oilers in 2018: 34-34-8, 76 points; goal differential -23

OILERS IN MARCH

  • Oilers in March 2016: 6-6-0, 12 points; goal differential -3
  • Oilers in March 2017: 8-3-1, 17 points; goal differential +16
  • Oilers in March 2018: 7-4-1, 15 points; goal differential +9
  • Oilers in March 2019: 7-4-1, 15 points; goal differential +2

WHAT TO EXPECT IN MARCH

  • On the road to: Columbus, Buffalo (Expected 0-1-1) (Actual 2-0-0)
  • At home to: Vancouver, Toronto, NY Rangers, NJD (Expected 2-1-1) (Actual 2-2-0)
  • On the road to: Arizona, Vegas, St. Louis (Expected: 0-2-1) (Actual 1-2-0)
  • At home to: Columbus,Ottawa, Los Angeles, Dallas, Anaheim (Expected: 3-1-1) (Actual 2-0-1)
  • Overall expected result: 5-5-4, 14 points in 14 games
  • Current results: 7-4-1, 15 points in 12 games

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

  • Sekera-Benning were 12-10 in 11:16, 8-4 shots, 1-0 goals and 2-1 HDSC. Solid night for the pair, Benning lost some teeth, took some hits too.
  • Klefbom-Larsson went 15-17 in 13:04, 5-8 shots, 2-1 goals and 4-2 HDSC. The pairing totaled five assists on the night, has to be a record.
  • Nurse-Russell were 10-20 in 14:28, 8-8 shots, 3-0 goals and 5-6 HDSC. That’s an incredible line, but you have to factor in the six blocked shots by the pairing.
  • Mikko Koskinen stopped 34 of 38, .895. He is also credited by NST for stopping all 11 HDSC’s.
  • NaturalStatTrick and NHL.com.

FORWARDS, LAST NIGHT

  • Draisaitl-McDavid-Kassian were 15-16 in 13:25, 7-8 shots, 3-1 goals and 4-6 HDSC.
  • Lucic-Brodziak-Currie went 9-16 in 9:43, 5-7 shots, no goals and 2-2 HDSC. Line needs a dangerous offensive weapon.
  • Gambardella-Nuge-Chiasson were 10-7 in 8:26, 6-2 shots, 2-0 goals and 3-0 HDSC. That’s among the best stat lines for a No. 2 trio all season long. Gambardella was effective.
  • Rieder-Cave-Gagner went 8-8 in 7:01, 6-3 shots, no goals and 3-4 HDSC. High event evening for what was the No. 4 line on the night.

Bakersfield has nine games left (including tonight) and own a six-point lead in the Pacific Division. The team goal differential (+58) leads the entire AHL, while young Benson is thriving with the Condors. I don’t think he’s going to be in California next season. Just a hunch.

GIVE ME A SIGN, LORD!

I have a rule about not using direct quotes from published media for 24 hours, it’ll be 21 hours when you’re reading this. So, I’m breaking my own rule. Please click this link (Mr. Friedman’s 31 Thoughts). Here’s part of the money passage, the rest you’ll see when you get there:

But there’s something odd going on in Edmonton. I’ve heard that Gillis’s name has been brought up for an interview.

Elliotte Friedman’s 31 Thoughts

This is potentially massive. Gillis is a nuclear option for an organization that needs a change in direction. My own opinion is that the drafting and development is no online, and since it’s never been a strength of Gillis’ work should be left alone.

The cap, roster construction, analytics and sleeping/nutrition/sports science? I think Gillis would be an excellent fit.

Negatives? Well, Gillis has an awful reputation with media and that would need to improve. Edmonton needs a GM who lives here, speaks to the local media frequently and is comfortable attending the Christmas Bureau Breakfast in the morning and (I’m embellishing of course) a silent auction in a barn that same night. Kevin Lowe was the best I’ve seen at that part of the job.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, we hit the ground running with a fun, upbeat, happy show! Scheduled to appear:

  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal. Last night’s game, Oilers’ culture and this Benson fellow.
  • Jon Campbell, OddsShark. Sweet 16 and mlb season.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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JimmyV1965

who: Well here’s my reasoning.
If Lucic were a free agent this summer,name 1NHL GM who is going to give him 2 million. TIMES 4 YEARS.
I don’t think that person exists.

Montreal, Toronto, Tampa; any team that could possibly get pushed around in the playoffs. It’s not like some huge gamble. If he gets sent to the minors, you lose $1 mill of his cap. I’m assuming that he wants out of Edmonton bad enough to waive his NMC.

godot10

OriginalPouzar: Eberle got paid based on that 76 point season.Drai is already locked in for 6 years after this one.

If he was signing this off-season, $8.5M wouldn’t even be in the conversation.

This may be his high point season but I don’t think anyone was requiring him to be a 100 point prducers year after year.

Eberle has fully earned the money in that contract with his boxcars. If one were guarenteed that production for the next six years, $6 million per season is better than fair value.

VanIsleOil

Woodguy v2.0: He would probably look at his last two years closely

17/18
ONSH% 11.3
ONSV%.917
PDO 1030

18/19
ONSH% 11.3
ONSV% .918
PDO 1030

SV% isn’t out of line.

That’s a high ONSH% but its lasted 2 seasons and almost 1700 minutes.

I would think its going to come down a bit, but that’s a long time at the same numbers.

ONSH% 3 years ago was 9.48 in 666 minutes.

The usual standard is to weight 2 seasons ago at 20%, last season at 30% and this season at 50% to project the next year.

That works out to 10.96 if he were to play with the same line mates again.He’s mostly been with Ehler and they see 3rd line comp which is a lot of 2nd and 3rd pairing Dmen.

If he moves up to top 6 you’re going to see the ONSH% drop due to increase in time vs top 4 Dmen.

If he moves up to top 6 and plays with a high end talent the ONSH% might go up a bit.

The SV% is, of course mostly out of his control.

If he played for EDM then given the ONSH% of the 3 main centers I’d expect:

13% with 97 and 29 together (they are 11.6 in the last two years)
10% with 97 (he is 9% last two years without 29 and 93)
9% with 29 (his is 8% in the last 2 years without 97)
9% with 93 (his is 8% in the last 2 years without 29)

I’m being very conservative here.These poor bastards haven’t had much scoring talent to play with besides each other the last two years.

I’m also being very conservative if you consider Eller’s ONSH% with and without Connolly the last two years.

Eller & Connolly 10.2%
Eller without Connolly 5.9%
Connolly without Eller 13.8% (playing top 6 with very good talent)

Forwards drive SH%

Connolly has seemed to be good at this in the last few years, especially vs 3rd line comp.

He actually moves the dial for Kuznetov from 10.75 to 12.7% (only 200 min) and moves Backstrom’s from 9.4% to 11.9% (in only 105 minutes)

Maybe I’m high on the salary number, but he’s the goods in these terms and I’d get him if he were available.

EDM doesn’t have finishers who help drive SH% and he’s one and he’s RH.

Turns 27 in May.

..and raised in Prince George..probably grew up an Olier fan…knows the weather. Would be a great fit.

Alpine

who: Well here’s my reasoning.
If Lucic were a free agent this summer,name 1NHL GM who is going to give him 2 million. TIMES 4 YEARS.
I don’t think that person exists.

It’s probably not a stretch. A few bottom six guys got 4 years x 3 mil last year.

OriginalPouzar

JimmyV1965: The acquisition cost for Montour was only a first rounder and Guhle. I’m not sure the latter is considered a real prospect still. He was at one point, but I know he was passed by others in Buffalo. So maybe a first is too rich for Spurgeon or Faulk.

Given Faulk has one year until UFA status and is going to require/demand a mighty contract with term, yes, I believe the acquisition cost for Faulk should be much less than Montour.

who

JimmyV1965: I don’t agree with this at all. There will be plenty of teams interested in Lucic at $1.5 to $2 mill. Like WG has said, the team that gets the snot kicked out of them by the Caps in the playoffs will be at the head of the line. In fact, at $1.5 mill to $2 mill, there will be teams willing to give up an actual asset for Lucic.

Well here’s my reasoning.
If Lucic were a free agent this summer, name 1 NHL GM who is going to give him 2 million. TIMES 4 YEARS.
I don’t think that person exists.

The Trade Guy

Blades sweep baby. On a crash course with the Raiders.

I wasn’t sure if Dach had big game chops yet, but hot damn look at this one.

https://twitter.com/TheWHL/status/1111140862606618624

JimmyV1965

OriginalPouzar: You could be on base with respect to what it would take for CAR/MIN to trade – I just wouldn’t be willing to pay the price. Presumably a team that would want to re-sign Faulk would be willing to pay a bit higher of an acquisition cost and I don’t think the Oilers should be that team – I like the player as a short term stop gap but not as a longer term acquisition at UFA costs.

The acquisition cost for Montour was only a first rounder and Guhle. I’m not sure the latter is considered a real prospect still. He was at one point, but I know he was passed by others in Buffalo. So maybe a first is too rich for Spurgeon or Faulk.

ArmchairGM

smellyglove:
Ugh, you guys do know that Draisaitl is shooting at double his career average right?

$250 says Drai doesn’t crack 35g next year.

How many bets can you cover?

Genjutsu

Decidedly Skeptical Fan: Vegas can see one too. And why would Pirri consider EDM at all. No income tax in Vegas, coach, players and fans like him, and he has the opportunity to play on a team that can go very deep in the playoffs.

Besides, his surname was shortened from Pirrienko … so that just about seals it. Just kidding on that last part.

Is he single?

OriginalPouzar

Gerta Rauss:
I like Benning a lot:

-my biggest concern is his concussion history. He appears to be healthy at the moment-fingers crossed he stays that way.

-I see the 3RD role next year as someone you can stash in the pressbox for 30 games/year while we rotate in our RH prospects(I’ll use Petrovic as a placeholder,feel free to insert your favorite 3RD here)

I still want an established 3RD on opening night(1 year deal approx $1.5M)

My number 1 priority is a 2RD this summer

Sekera plays the mentor role as 3LD

Klef-Larsson
Nurse-2RD
Sekera-Petrovic
—-Persson
—-Bear
—-Bouchard
—-Jones

I like Benning a lot,but I’d trade him if the value is there and we can get a serviceable forward in return

I agree with almot all of this.

Priority #1 is a Russell disposition with the cap space used for a short term 2RD upgrade.

No pressure to trade Benning but, if he can bring back value, something like Connor Brown, go for it.

100% on board with Sekera as 3LD as a mentor for whichever prospect(s) grab the open roster spot..

Would be happy for a cheap guy like Petrovic to be the 3RD rotator, however, with Manning on the books, I don’t think we can afford another D-signing. Maybe Manning can be that guy….

OriginalPouzar

JimmyV1965: I could be way off base with the trade cost for Spurgeon and Faulk. I really have no idea.

You could be on base with respect to what it would take for CAR/MIN to trade – I just wouldn’t be willing to pay the price. Presumably a team that would want to re-sign Faulk would be willing to pay a bit higher of an acquisition cost and I don’t think the Oilers should be that team – I like the player as a short term stop gap but not as a longer term acquisition at UFA costs.

OriginalPouzar

Decidedly Skeptical Fan: This made me laugh. Opportunity used in the same sentence with Edmonton. Much more likely he would be stapled to the 4th line with linemates like Cave and Lucic … that should get the old career moving in the right direction for that big payday. Haha. The only way Pirri plays on a line with McD and/or Drai is if he somehow finds the contract KahJoola signed and convinces someone in Oiler’s management to use that instead of wasting a lot of time drawing up a new one from scratch. I could actually see that happening if I squint my eyes a little bit.

Perhaps the new head coach, whoever that may be, will be the most important person in this discussion. We wait.

OriginalPouzar

Andy Dufresne:
ASSUMING you are not willing to wait a year or two to move Lucic ( you may be willing to wait in which case ignore this) AND ASSUMING we trade him IN THE SUMMER. ( and assuming he would waive)….yes I know triple ass.

When Lucic has the following contract

……………………CAP………..AVV……..Sign Bonus….Base Sal …Total Salary
2019-20NMC$6,000,000$6,000,000$0$3,000,000$3,000,000$6,000,000
2020-21NMC$6,000,000$6,000,000$0$3,000,000$1,000,000$4,000,000
2021-22 Mod$6,000,000$6,000,000$0$2,500,000$2,500,000$5,000,000
2022-23Mod$6,000,000$6,000,000$0$3,000,000$1,000,000$4,000,000

What is his actual value to any given team.$2m ? 2.5m ?

If we hedged high and said $2.5m as is, but diminishing by 500k per year, we would have to provide assets equivelant to the following dollar figures:

2019-20$3.5m
2020-21$1.5m +500k
2021-22$2.5m + $1m
2022-23$1.5m + $1.5m

Which equals approx. $3m per season worth of additioanl value/sweetner to move him this summer.

Now the team trading for him gets to claim $6m AVV cap hit for 4 seasons so that has some value. But this is somewhat cancelled in terms of value to each side by the Oilers receiving $6m in cap space.

So if a deal were to occur this summer, we would either have to retain $3m or add $3m in value.

Just looking at player contracts……Benning is worth only $2m …..JJ $1.2 Million?……JP???

The other teams GM is not going to want to take back more than two contracts so a non useful player will probably be coming back.

So moving Lucic costs something likeBenning and JJ…….or JP………or a lottery protected 2020 1st……or 2 quality prospects Jones and Maksimov. etc

No other GM is going to do us any favours. No GM is going take a B prospect like Bear and a 2nd round pick. The GMs of the cap floor teams will have at least 12 other teams looking to dump a contract similar to Lucic with less than 4 yrs term. Will ANY of these GMs even be able/willing to project/believe that they will be cap floor team for the next 4 years?

Which of the following would you give up:

1) Benning and JJ
2) JP
3) Lottery Protected 2020 1st
4) Jones and Makismov
5) Lucic with $3m retained.

Even if you were to do the deal on the first day of the 2019/20 season after paying Lucic’s $3m bonus, the idea that you can just add up the remaining dollars 3m, 4m, 5m, 4m = 16m has to account for Lucics diminishing value as each year passes. If he’s worth 2.5m, 2m, 1.5m, 1m, = 7mThe gap is still $9m over the four years. $2.25m per year. So this creates option 6

6) Lucic 2019/20 bonus paid with $2.25m retained.
7) Lucic 2019/20 bonus paid and take back a bad contract

Is $2.25m retained palatable??? Creates $3.75 in cap space.

If they could dispose of Lucic with only retaining cap, even the full $3M, with no additional sweetener, that deal would be consummated very very quickly.

The thinking of many is retainement plus a material sweetener which is too rich in my blood.

Absolutely no to any 1st round pick as a sweetner – that is far too rich – even lottery protected and in future years – 1st round picks are gold for this franchise for the next couple of years.

OriginalPouzar

Gerta Rauss: You wouldn’t consider re-signing Spurgeon..?

I would, for sure

I don’t think I’d trade the 2019 pick, but I might trade the 2020 pick for a signed Spurgeon

I was talking about Faulk and, no, I would not re-sign Faulk.

OriginalPouzar

Condors hang on for the 5-2 win last night.

Dominated through the first half of the game and then seemed to lay off the gas (although I missed most of the third period).

———————————

Guelph is on SN later this afternoon as they look to sweep their first round series – a great chance for Oiler fans to see Samorukov in action.

Wilde

Woodguy v2.0: What do you mean?

If your dream Burakovsky coming here, then I don’t know.

I think WSH resigns Connolly.

Not sure what they do with Burakovsky.

Bura’s one of my core targets.

(also I was being facetious, I know you’re not in his brain)

JimmyV1965

who: Lucic’s value to another team is 1 million. Tops.
People who are advocating an Oilers to team A to team B trade of Lucic, with 2 million retained by each team, are overestimating his value to team B.
Therefore, the value team A gets for taking on 2 million of Lucic’s contract would be (the sweetener Oilers include) minus ( the sweetener team A has to give up to team B)

I don’t agree with this at all. There will be plenty of teams interested in Lucic at $1.5 to $2 mill. Like WG has said, the team that gets the snot kicked out of them by the Caps in the playoffs will be at the head of the line. In fact, at $1.5 mill to $2 mill, there will be teams willing to give up an actual asset for Lucic.

OriginalPouzar

Glovjuice: Yeah, he has been great but I fear the “eberle 76” thing with his season. We will see but I’m calling thatthis will be his high point carer wise. Save this post.

Eberle got paid based on that 76 point season. Drai is already locked in for 6 years after this one.

If he was signing this off-season, $8.5M wouldn’t even be in the conversation.

This may be his high point season but I don’t think anyone was requiring him to be a 100 point prducers year after year.

v4ance

https://www.newsobserver.com/sports/article228416184.html

Svechnikov has spent considerable time away from the rink with players such as Dougie Hamilton and Warren Foegele. They’re younger, single. Hamilton and Svechnikov, for example, attended an N.C. State basketball game at PNC Arena this season, blending into the student section.

Hamilton, 25, once was an NHL rookie from whom much was expected. Selected ninth overall by the Boston Bruins in 2011, he was in the Bruins lineup at 19.

“I went through the same thing,” Hamilton said. “You come in and it’s a totally different life here. You come from hanging out with guys who are your own age or younger and now suddenly you’re hanging out with guys who have wives and kids and stuff. You kind of need somebody there to help you through everything,

“It’s hard, too, for him with the language. Everything’s different. He’s done great so far and just is a really good person. Doesn’t say or do anything wrong. Just working so hard.”

Some people keep slagging Hamilton for supposed character issues but it sounds like he’s a mentor to a key part of the Hurricane’s future. If he really was a malcontent, why would Carolina let him get close to Svechnikov?

Woodguy v2.0

Wilde: Think he’ll ruin my Burakovsky dreams?

What do you mean?

If your dream Burakovsky coming here, then I don’t know.

I think WSH resigns Connolly.

Not sure what they do with Burakovsky.

Woodguy v2.0

Georgexs: Brett Connolly? $5MM for 4-5 years? And the guy who signs him to that deal will be doing a good thing? OK. Something to watch. What would Brian King PDO do?

He would probably look at his last two years closely

17/18
ONSH% 11.3
ONSV% .917
PDO 1030

18/19
ONSH% 11.3
ONSV% .918
PDO 1030

SV% isn’t out of line.

That’s a high ONSH% but its lasted 2 seasons and almost 1700 minutes.

I would think its going to come down a bit, but that’s a long time at the same numbers.

ONSH% 3 years ago was 9.48 in 666 minutes.

The usual standard is to weight 2 seasons ago at 20%, last season at 30% and this season at 50% to project the next year.

That works out to 10.96 if he were to play with the same line mates again. He’s mostly been with Ehler and they see 3rd line comp which is a lot of 2nd and 3rd pairing Dmen.

If he moves up to top 6 you’re going to see the ONSH% drop due to increase in time vs top 4 Dmen.

If he moves up to top 6 and plays with a high end talent the ONSH% might go up a bit.

The SV% is, of course mostly out of his control.

If he played for EDM then given the ONSH% of the 3 main centers I’d expect:

13% with 97 and 29 together (they are 11.6 in the last two years)
10% with 97 (he is 9% last two years without 29 and 93)
9% with 29 (his is 8% in the last 2 years without 97)
9% with 93 (his is 8% in the last 2 years without 29)

I’m being very conservative here. These poor bastards haven’t had much scoring talent to play with besides each other the last two years.

I’m also being very conservative if you consider Eller’s ONSH% with and without Connolly the last two years.

Eller & Connolly 10.2%
Eller without Connolly 5.9%
Connolly without Eller 13.8% (playing top 6 with very good talent)

Forwards drive SH%

Connolly has seemed to be good at this in the last few years, especially vs 3rd line comp.

He actually moves the dial for Kuznetov from 10.75 to 12.7% (only 200 min) and moves Backstrom’s from 9.4% to 11.9% (in only 105 minutes)

Maybe I’m high on the salary number, but he’s the goods in these terms and I’d get him if he were available.

EDM doesn’t have finishers who help drive SH% and he’s one and he’s RH.

Turns 27 in May.

who

Andy Dufresne:
ASSUMING you are not willing to wait a year or two to move Lucic ( you may be willing to wait in which case ignore this) AND ASSUMING we trade him IN THE SUMMER. ( and assuming he would waive)….yes I know triple ass.

When Lucic has the following contract

……………………CAP………..AVV……..Sign Bonus….Base Sal …Total Salary
2019-20NMC$6,000,000$6,000,000$0$3,000,000$3,000,000$6,000,000
2020-21NMC$6,000,000$6,000,000$0$3,000,000$1,000,000$4,000,000
2021-22 Mod$6,000,000$6,000,000$0$2,500,000$2,500,000$5,000,000
2022-23Mod$6,000,000$6,000,000$0$3,000,000$1,000,000$4,000,000

What is his actual value to any given team.$2m ? 2.5m ?

If we hedged high and said $2.5m as is, but diminishing by 500k per year, we would have to provide assets equivelant to the following dollar figures:

2019-20$3.5m
2020-21$1.5m +500k
2021-22$2.5m + $1m
2022-23$1.5m + $1.5m

Which equals approx. $3m per season worth of additioanl value/sweetner to move him this summer.

Now the team trading for him gets to claim $6m AVV cap hit for 4 seasons so that has some value. But this is somewhat cancelled in terms of value to each side by the Oilers receiving $6m in cap space.

So if a deal were to occur this summer, we would either have to retain $3m or add $3m in value.

Just looking at player contracts……Benning is worth only $2m …..JJ $1.2 Million?……JP???

The other teams GM is not going to want to take back more than two contracts so a non useful player will probably be coming back.

So moving Lucic costs something likeBenning and JJ…….or JP………or a lottery protected 2020 1st……or 2 quality prospects Jones and Maksimov. etc

No other GM is going to do us any favours. No GM is going take a B prospect like Bear and a 2nd round pick. The GMs of the cap floor teams will have at least 12 other teams looking to dump a contract similar to Lucic with less than 4 yrs term. Will ANY of these GMs even be able/willing to project/believe that they will be cap floor team for the next 4 years?

Which of the following would you give up:

1) Benning and JJ
2) JP
3) Lottery Protected 2020 1st
4) Jones and Makismov
5) Lucic with $3m retained.

Even if you were to do the deal on the first day of the 2019/20 season after paying Lucic’s $3m bonus, the idea that you can just add up the remaining dollars 3m, 4m, 5m, 4m = 16m has to account for Lucics diminishing value as each year passes. If he’s worth 2.5m, 2m, 1.5m, 1m, = 7mThe gap is still $9m over the four years. $2.25m per year. So this creates option 6

6) Lucic 2019/20 bonus paid with $2.25m retained.
7) Lucic 2019/20 bonus paid and take back a bad contract

Is $2.25m retained palatable??? Creates $3.75 in cap space.

Lucic’s value to another team is 1 million. Tops.
People who are advocating an Oilers to team A to team B trade of Lucic, with 2 million retained by each team, are overestimating his value to team B.
Therefore, the value team A gets for taking on 2 million of Lucic’s contract would be (the sweetener Oilers include) minus ( the sweetener team A has to give up to team B)

Ranford.85

I believe or forward group is much closer to the playoffs than the defence. Bury a few useless contracts (Brodz, Ganger), bring up a few successful Bakersfield kids and shelter their 5v5. McD, Drai and Nuge play big minutes and succeed so let them. With some ELCs, cap increase and signing Chaisson for 2×2 (replaces Reider’s contract)… the Oil could fit a new 2LW for RNH. The Nuge doesn’t need a superstar, he’s played with much worse.
Drai-McD-Kass
LW2-RNH-Chai
Benson-JJ-Marody
Lucic-Cave-Currie
(Gamb, cheap PTO vet)
Klef-Larss
Nurse-2RD
Sekera/Russell-Benning
The problem on defence is that the right side prospects are a few years too young and that the left side is blocked by Klef/Nurse/Sekera or Russell.
The only trade I’d consider is packaging one of our many tantalizing young D, a 2nd round pick and Russell/Sekera for a better 2RD. Which ever is left could easily play a good veteran 3LD. But yet again the defence is one injury away in our top 4D to having someone play above the head.
All I know is we have Lagesson, Jones, Bear, Persson and then Samurokov, Bouchard, Berglund. That’s two waves of great left and right side prospects.

JimmyV1965

Andy Dufresne:
ASSUMING you are not willing to wait a year or two to move Lucic ( you may be willing to wait in which case ignore this) AND ASSUMING we trade him IN THE SUMMER. ( and assuming he would waive)….yes I know triple ass.

When Lucic has the following contract

……………………CAP………..AVV……..Sign Bonus….Base Sal …Total Salary
2019-20NMC$6,000,000$6,000,000$0$3,000,000$3,000,000$6,000,000
2020-21NMC$6,000,000$6,000,000$0$3,000,000$1,000,000$4,000,000
2021-22 Mod$6,000,000$6,000,000$0$2,500,000$2,500,000$5,000,000
2022-23Mod$6,000,000$6,000,000$0$3,000,000$1,000,000$4,000,000

What is his actual value to any given team.$2m ? 2.5m ?

If we hedged high and said $2.5m as is, but diminishing by 500k per year, we would have to provide assets equivelant to the following dollar figures:

2019-20$3.5m
2020-21$1.5m +500k
2021-22$2.5m + $1m
2022-23$1.5m + $1.5m

Which equals approx. $3m per season worth of additioanl value/sweetner to move him this summer.

Now the team trading for him gets to claim $6m AVV cap hit for 4 seasons so that has some value. But this is somewhat cancelled in terms of value to each side by the Oilers receiving $6m in cap space.

So if a deal were to occur this summer, we would either have to retain $3m or add $3m in value.

Just looking at player contracts……Benning is worth only $2m …..JJ $1.2 Million?……JP???

The other teams GM is not going to want to take back more than two contracts so a non useful player will probably be coming back.

So moving Lucic costs something likeBenning and JJ…….or JP………or a lottery protected 2020 1st……or 2 quality prospects Jones and Maksimov. etc

No other GM is going to do us any favours. No GM is going take a B prospect like Bear and a 2nd round pick. The GMs of the cap floor teams will have at least 12 other teams looking to dump a contract similar to Lucic with less than 4 yrs term. Will ANY of these GMs even be able/willing to project/believe that they will be cap floor team for the next 4 years?

Which of the following would you give up:

1) Benning and JJ
2) JP
3) Lottery Protected 2020 1st
4) Jones and Makismov
5) Lucic with $3m retained.

Even if you were to do the deal on the first day of the 2019/20 season after paying Lucic’s $3m bonus, the idea that you can just add up the remaining dollars 3m, 4m, 5m, 4m = 16m has to account for Lucics diminishing value as each year passes. If he’s worth 2.5m, 2m, 1.5m, 1m, = 7mThe gap is still $9m over the four years. $2.25m per year. So this creates option 6

6) Lucic 2019/20 bonus paid with $2.25m retained.
7) Lucic 2019/20 bonus paid and take back a bad contract

Is $2.25m retained palatable??? Creates $3.75 in cap space.

Again, the best way to trade Lucic is a three-way deal. The question then becomes what would it cost to get a team to take on $2 mill in cap for four years? I have no idea.

who

JimmyV1965: I would add Spurgeon as well. Same boat, but he’s from Edmonton and maybe, possibly, hopefully resigns here at a reasonable contract. I have no idea what the cost is? I would assume at least a first round pick. Possibly a second rounder and a good prospect. I would hate to trade guys like Benson, Marody, Yammer, Jones or Lagesson.

godot10: I am only for making a hockey trade with Benning.We know who he is.A 3rd pairing D.If the Oilers can’t get rid of Russell, then it is time to cash in Benning for a similarly aged player who is a forward.

Yeah, I brought this up a few weeks ago and Willis wrote a very good article on the subject at the Athletic yesterday. His conclusion was that Benning is the logical piece to trade.
It makes sense. He is the easiest dman to replace, and the easiest to trade out of the Sekera, Russell, Benning cluster.
We would not be handing the position to a rookie, he would have to earn it. Forget Perrson and Bouchard, we have 3 guys finishing their 2nd year of pro. All of them have had very good seasons. There will be plenty of competition for Bennings job.

Gerta Rauss

OriginalPouzar: That cost is simply too high for a one-year rental

You wouldn’t consider re-signing Spurgeon..?

I would, for sure

I don’t think I’d trade the 2019 pick, but I might trade the 2020 pick for a signed Spurgeon

Gerta Rauss

I like Benning a lot:

-my biggest concern is his concussion history. He appears to be healthy at the moment-fingers crossed he stays that way.

-I see the 3RD role next year as someone you can stash in the pressbox for 30 games/year while we rotate in our RH prospects(I’ll use Petrovic as a placeholder,feel free to insert your favorite 3RD here)

I still want an established 3RD on opening night(1 year deal approx $1.5M)

My number 1 priority is a 2RD this summer

Sekera plays the mentor role as 3LD

Klef-Larsson
Nurse-2RD
Sekera-Petrovic
—- Persson
—- Bear
—- Bouchard
—- Jones

I like Benning a lot,but I’d trade him if the value is there and we can get a serviceable forward in return

Wilde

Woodguy v2.0: WSH got 3 years of Connolly.

5v5 pts/60
16/171.98
17/18 1.74
18/19 2.68

They paid:

16/17 850K
17/18 1.5
18/19 1.5

That’s what happens when you have a piss-cutter like Vic doing pro-player research

Think he’ll ruin my Burakovsky dreams?

JimmyV1965

smellyglove:
Ugh, you guys do know that Draisaitl is shooting at double his career average right?

$250 says Drai doesn’t crack 35g next year.

I won’t be shocked if this is career high in goals. But I do know he has a hell of a shot and works on it all the time. But ultimately he’s a pass first guy. I can see his assist total going up if he’s centring a line with a legit scorer. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he has multiple 90 pt seasons.

Reja

A couple more smelly juices I’ll really be confused.

Andy Dufresne

Woodguy v2.0:
Drai’s sh% with McDavid last 3 years (only played 4 min together in 15/16)

16/17 17.9%
17/18 8.3%
18/19 26.4%

Not sure where he shakes out long term but his SH% w/ 97 might be sustainably around 17%…maybe???

Agreed. I would be counting on him taking more shots. He has added 20 shots each season for the last 3 years. (and he’s still no where near Kucherov in terms of amount of shots taken)

Georgexs

Woodguy v2.0: Yeah, and he was playing 3RW for those two years and he is again this year where he might get close to 50points.(at 44 now)

I was off the mark at $6MM, I’ll give you that, but it could go as high as $5MM.

He’s tied for 20th in the NHL in 5v5 GF/60 with 1.08 over the past 2 seasons.

If you remove everyone playing more than 12 5v5 minutes per game he’s1st. (averaged under 11.5 minutes/gm)

If you remove everyone playing 13 minutes or more he’s 5th behind Gallagher, Debrincat, Van Reimsdyk and Konecny.

He’s tied with Tarasenko and William Karlsson and Tyler Johnson.

He’s a great candidate to play top 6 somewhere, would be good if it were here.

His 5v5 GF/60 mightdrop as his minutes increase, but 97,29 and 93 can pass the puck pretty good.

Brett Connolly? $5MM for 4-5 years? And the guy who signs him to that deal will be doing a good thing? OK. Something to watch. What would Brian King PDO do?

Woodguy v2.0

Drai’s sh% with McDavid last 3 years (only played 4 min together in 15/16)

16/17 17.9%
17/18 8.3%
18/19 26.4%

Not sure where he shakes out long term but his SH% w/ 97 might be sustainably around 17%…maybe???

Andy Dufresne

Glovjuice: Y’all realize this is the highest scoring year in a long time right ? Drai ain’t getting 100 points again. He will score 35 though.

Fair.

JimmyV1965

OriginalPouzar: , Marody, Yammer, Jones or Lagesson.
That cost is simply too high for a one-year rental
  (Quote)  (Reply)

I could be way off base with the trade cost for Spurgeon and Faulk. I really have no idea.

Decidedly Skeptical Fan

OriginalPouzar: Opportunity to play would be MUCH greater in Edmonton than Vegas, not to mention, opportunity to play with one (or both) of McDavid and Drai – that itself can earn him the pay day that trumps the no state tax.

This made me laugh. Opportunity used in the same sentence with Edmonton. Much more likely he would be stapled to the 4th line with linemates like Cave and Lucic … that should get the old career moving in the right direction for that big payday. Haha. The only way Pirri plays on a line with McD and/or Drai is if he somehow finds the contract KahJoola signed and convinces someone in Oiler’s management to use that instead of wasting a lot of time drawing up a new one from scratch. I could actually see that happening if I squint my eyes a little bit.

Woodguy v2.0

Andy Dufresne: I would take that bet. You interested? Are we even allowed to bet in here?

I have placed wagers in this house.

Glovjuice

Andy Dufresne: I would take that bet. You interested?

Y’all realize this is the highest scoring year in a long time right ? Drai ain’t getting 100 points again. He will score 35 though.

Andy Dufresne

smellyglove:
Ugh, you guys do know that Draisaitl is shooting at double his career average right?

$250 says Drai doesn’t crack 35g next year.

I would take that bet. You interested? Are we even allowed to bet in here?

flyfish1168

phlegms lose again. phlegms record versus playoff teams is barely over 500. Against non-playoff teams, they’re over 800.

Halfwise

Glovjuice: Yeah, he has been great but I fear the “eberle 76” thing with his season. We will see but I’m calling thatthis will be his high point carer wise. Save this post.

If the team was balanced, and if it could get the puck out of its own end, Draisaitl might score more.

It’s a better bet that his % of team points is at a peak. That’s a good thing.

Woodguy v2.0

OriginalPouzar: He had 23 and 27 points in those first two years.

Yeah, and he was playing 3RW for those two years and he is again this year where he might get close to 50points. (at 44 now)

I was off the mark at $6MM, I’ll give you that, but it could go as high as $5MM.

He’s tied for 20th in the NHL in 5v5 GF/60 with 1.08 over the past 2 seasons.

If you remove everyone playing more than 12 5v5 minutes per game he’s 1st. (averaged under 11.5 minutes/gm)

If you remove everyone playing 13 minutes or more he’s 5th behind Gallagher, Debrincat, Van Reimsdyk and Konecny.

He’s tied with Tarasenko and William Karlsson and Tyler Johnson.

He’s a great candidate to play top 6 somewhere, would be good if it were here.

His 5v5 GF/60 might drop as his minutes increase, but 97,29 and 93 can pass the puck pretty good.

Andy Dufresne

ASSUMING you are not willing to wait a year or two to move Lucic ( you may be willing to wait in which case ignore this) AND ASSUMING we trade him IN THE SUMMER. ( and assuming he would waive)….yes I know triple ass.

When Lucic has the following contract

……………………CAP………..AVV……..Sign Bonus….Base Sal …Total Salary
2019-20 NMC $6,000,000 $6,000,000 $0 $3,000,000 $3,000,000 $6,000,000
2020-21 NMC $6,000,000 $6,000,000 $0 $3,000,000 $1,000,000 $4,000,000
2021-22 Mod $6,000,000 $6,000,000 $0 $2,500,000 $2,500,000 $5,000,000
2022-23 Mod $6,000,000 $6,000,000 $0 $3,000,000 $1,000,000 $4,000,000

What is his actual value to any given team. $2m ? 2.5m ?

If we hedged high and said $2.5m as is, but diminishing by 500k per year, we would have to provide assets equivelant to the following dollar figures:

2019-20 $3.5m
2020-21 $1.5m +500k
2021-22 $2.5m + $1m
2022-23 $1.5m + $1.5m

Which equals approx. $3m per season worth of additioanl value/sweetner to move him this summer.

Now the team trading for him gets to claim $6m AVV cap hit for 4 seasons so that has some value. But this is somewhat cancelled in terms of value to each side by the Oilers receiving $6m in cap space.

So if a deal were to occur this summer, we would either have to retain $3m or add $3m in value.

Just looking at player contracts……Benning is worth only $2m …..JJ $1.2 Million?……JP???

The other teams GM is not going to want to take back more than two contracts so a non useful player will probably be coming back.

So moving Lucic costs something like Benning and JJ…….or JP………or a lottery protected 2020 1st……or 2 quality prospects Jones and Maksimov. etc

No other GM is going to do us any favours. No GM is going take a B prospect like Bear and a 2nd round pick. The GMs of the cap floor teams will have at least 12 other teams looking to dump a contract similar to Lucic with less than 4 yrs term. Will ANY of these GMs even be able/willing to project/believe that they will be cap floor team for the next 4 years?

Which of the following would you give up:

1) Benning and JJ
2) JP
3) Lottery Protected 2020 1st
4) Jones and Makismov
5) Lucic with $3m retained.

Even if you were to do the deal on the first day of the 2019/20 season after paying Lucic’s $3m bonus, the idea that you can just add up the remaining dollars 3m, 4m, 5m, 4m = 16m has to account for Lucics diminishing value as each year passes. If he’s worth 2.5m, 2m, 1.5m, 1m, = 7m The gap is still $9m over the four years. $2.25m per year. So this creates option 6

6) Lucic 2019/20 bonus paid with $2.25m retained.
7) Lucic 2019/20 bonus paid and take back a bad contract

Is $2.25m retained palatable??? Creates $3.75 in cap space.

Glovjuice

smellyglove:
Ugh, you guys do know that Draisaitl is shooting at double his career average right?

$250 says Drai doesn’t crack 35g next year.

Yeah, he has been great but I fear the “eberle 76” thing with his season. We will see but I’m calling that this will be his high point carer wise. Save this post.

Woodguy v2.0

OriginalPouzar: For one year topping 27 points?

I guess I’m a big high on that.

Maybe $5 is the ceiling

Glovjuice

flyfish1168: He is about to get a reputation of being injury prone.

Trade him ASAP. mark this post.

godot10

McNuge93: I’d much rather keep him and make Jones or Persson or whoever absolutely push him out of the lineup, rather than creating a spot for them. Depth is so important over a long season. I know you said you’re only luke warm on the idea. I’d rather any trade be summer 2020 when we should have a better idea of where all our prospects fit.

I am only for making a hockey trade with Benning. We know who he is. A 3rd pairing D. If the Oilers can’t get rid of Russell, then it is time to cash in Benning for a similarly aged player who is a forward.

Reja

smellyglove:
Ugh, you guys do know that Draisaitl is shooting at double his career average right?

$250 says Drai doesn’t crack 35g next year.

Leon’s a pass first player always has been get him a winger he’ll pile up the assists if not he’ll keep shooting.If you think Leon’s gonna crash and burn to each is her own.Set a point value for next year.

Woodguy v2.0

New Improved Darkness,

Fine form today sir.