Game 77 2018-19: Stars at Oilers

by Lowetide

The Oilers are 7-4-1 in March, that’s a good record (on a pace to deliver 112 points over 82 games). Of course, the gap between Edmonton and the playoffs hasn’t closed much because Colorado is 6-3-1 in its last 10.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group. INSANE NEW OFFER IS HERE!

  • New Lowetide: How the Oilers can shop for a big bang on a small budget
  • New Jonathan Willis: How the Oilers can turn their prospect depth into the blueline of a contender.
  • Lowetide: What Mark Hunter’s draft record in Toronto means for his Oilers GM candidacy.
  • Lowetide: Colby Cave and Joe Gambardella build late-season resumes with Edmonton.
  • Lowetide: The Oilers made a rare move and shopped the QMJHL at the 2018 draft. It could happen again.
  • Eric Duhatschek: Sorting through the organizational problems in Ottawa and Edmonton.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: After a year of despair, Oilers prospect Cameron Hebig grateful for latest chapter with the Condors
  • Jonathan Willis: Bob Nicholson’s misguided Tobias Rieder comments reveal deeper problems within Oilers management
  • Jonathan Willis: Ken Hitchcock knows why Edmonton has trouble exiting its zone, but lacks the players to fix it.
  • Lowetide: Trimming cap fat and adding speed and skill will shape Oilers’ offseason.
  • Jonathan Willis: Former Canucks architects Mike Gillis and Laurence Gilman should be considered for any vacant NHL GM job
  • Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers draft early, the WHL is loaded and there’s a lot of history.
  • Jonathan Willis: Analyzing how much the Oilers should be willing to spend on pending free agent Alex Chiasson.
  • Jonathan Willis: Keith Gretzky is a legitimate Oilers GM candidate, but would be a hard sell in Edmonton
  • Lowetide: How the Oilers can build a contender during Connor McDavid’s prime.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How Leon Draisaitl has found ‘another level’ by matching offensive wizardry with sound positioning.
  • Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers and the OHL.

OILERS AFTER 77

  • Oilers in 2015: 30-40-7, 67 points; goal differential -35
  • Oilers in 2016: 43-25-9, 95 points; goal differential +30
  • Oilers in 2017: 34-37-6, 74 points; goal differential -35
  • Oilers in 2018: 34-34-8, 76 points; goal differential -23

OILERS IN MARCH

  • Oilers in March 2016: 7-6-0, 14 points; goal differential -1
  • Oilers in March 2017: 9-3-1, 19 points; goal differential +17
  • Oilers in March 2018: 7-4-2, 16 points; goal differential +8
  • Oilers in March 2019: 7-4-1, 15 points; goal differential +2

WHAT TO EXPECT IN MARCH

  • On the road to: Columbus, Buffalo (Expected 0-1-1) (Actual 2-0-0)
  • At home to: Vancouver, Toronto, NY Rangers, NJD (Expected 2-1-1) (Actual 2-2-0)
  • On the road to: Arizona, Vegas, St. Louis (Expected: 0-2-1) (Actual 1-2-0)
  • At home to: Columbus,Ottawa, Los Angeles, Dallas, Anaheim (Expected: 3-1-1) (Actual 2-0-1)
  • Overall expected result: 5-5-4, 14 points in 14 games
  • Current results: 7-4-1, 15 points in 12 games

HEAD TO HEAD VIA PUCK IQ

My article for The Athletic this morning approaches 2,000 words. It’s a look at the summer ahead and an offering of a possible future. One of the things I didn’t have room for (but may address in a future article) is the idea of Matt Benning moving up to the second pairing. Using Puck IQ, we see some trends.

As you can see over the past three seasons, Benning’s usage against elites has actually been reduced. Injuries, struggles, Kris Russell as a preferred option, all of these things have come into play.

Benning’s success against elites (Dangerous Fenwick Percentage) suggests to me the Oilers may want to flip him to second pair. Russell has played 160 more minutes against elites this season, but his possession rate is going the wrong way in a hurry.

The new general manager will have some tough decisions this summer, one of which is (probably) deciding between Russell, Benning and Sekera. I hope you enjoy the article (and thanks to Woodguy for his input on roster decisions for the piece).

Last time he played an NHL game, Malone got six minutes against the Rangers (March 11). Gambardella won an NHL job, at least for now.

BENSON AT 20

In this century, Tyler Benson is unique among Oilers prospect forwards who play in the AHL at 20. How unique? He’s No. 1 and here’s the top 10.

  1. LW Tyler Benson (18-19 Bakersfield Condors). 60gp, 14-45-59 .983ppg. In his last 31 games, Benson has 38 points. He’s second in rookie scoring, leads all rookies in assists. Edmonton has talked all along about keeping these kids on the farm, I think there’s a strong chance he’ll be one of the best options at left wing in the fall.
  2. LC Rob Schremp (06-07 SWB Penguins) 69gp, 17-36-53 .768ppg Schremp had a tough first year pro, getting benched a few times and was a healthy scratch a few times too. His coach did have some nice things to say about him but he was always dogged by skating and coverage issues.
  3. RC Jarret Stoll (02-03 Hamilton Bulldogs) 76gp, 21-33-54 .711ppg The two things I remember about Stoll in the AHL are a goal he scored maybe 5 seconds after the faceoff at center-ice and that the “shared” Habs/Oil team that year was a beauty. Stoll played with really good players and had an excellent season, which he built upon to become a solid NHL player.
  4. RC Marc Pouliot (05-06 Hamilton Bulldogs) 65gp, 15-30-45 .692ppg Pouliot played on a shared team (like Stoll) as a rookie pro and put up excellent results. Of all the kids who’ve played extended AHL time this century for the Oilers, he’s the guy who I thought could have helped them in the two-way role. It never happened for him. Injuries had a major impact.
  5. LW Jean Francois Jacques (05-06 Hamilton Bulldogs) 65gp, 24-20-44 .677ppg Jacques had a helluva pro debut and his size and speed made him a promising prospect. He lost a lot of momentum due to back injuries and may have lacked ‘hockey sense’. He is most famous for not getting a point as an NHL rookie in 2006-07 (in 37 games).
  6. RW Kailer Yamamoto (18-19 Bakersfield Condors) 27gp, 10-8-18 .667 ppg. It has been a disappointing campaign for the young winger, but he has scored at a rapid clip when playing with skill.
  7. LW Magnus Paajarvi (11-12 Oklahoma City Barons) 34gp, 7-18-25 .735ppg Paajarvi played in the NHL at 19, so this is after that teenage season. Great speed, good defensive instincts, can’t score enough to move up the depth chart, he has carved out a career as a depth player. This season with the Senators he scored 10 goals in an NHL campaign for the first time since he was a rookie in 2010-11.
  8. LW Teemu Hartikainen (10-11 Oklahoma City Barons) 66gp, 17-25-42 .636ppg The big Finn was a pure delight and the first 20-year old AHL forward in a couple of years to show up on the radar. He was a little shy on speed but I loved his hands and spirit. He’s an impact player in the KHL.
  9. RC Kyle Brodziak (04-05 Edmonton Roadrunners) 56gp, 6-26-32 .571ppg Brodziak has a nice combination of size and skill. His AHL debut at 20 came on a very poor offensive team, and he built on that season (that team couldn’t score a lick), finally emerging as a legit NHL player about the time Edmonton traded him.
  10. RW Jani Rita (01-02 Hamilton Bulldogs) 76gp, 25-17-42 .553ppg I thought Jani Rita would make it. He had the one thing Paajarvi didn’t (a great shot) but not enough of the stuff Paajarvi had to impress Craig MacTavish.
https://twitter.com/SportsnetSpec/status/1111267093888946176

In a year that held several good choices, the selection of Sekera is the right one in my opinion.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260, we kick out the jams for opening day! Scheduled to appear:

  • Jonah Birenbaum, The Score. Opening Day! Everyone is in first place!
  • Frank Seravalli, TSN. These first-round matchups are (in some cases) wildly unfair. Some great teams are going home early.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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290 comments

Genjutsu March 29, 2019 - 12:38 pm

OriginalPouzar: You could be right but, at the same time, that’s the exact same type of reasoning that would suggest if Rieder scored 12-15 more goals this year, we’d be a playoff team…..

Which is also accurate. Why can’t we speak truthfully anymore?

Everyone is more concerned with everybody’s feelings than open honest conversation.

It’s sad.

russ99 March 29, 2019 - 11:56 am

hunter1909,

I like Cave, Khaira and Gambardella. 3 fairly cheap contracts in the bottom six, with room for improvement.

godot10 March 29, 2019 - 9:07 am

Scungilli Slushy:

It’s why I’ve said they should put Jesse as easy parade centre. Gives them another right shot, he does the roaming anyway and has the boots and size for it. Like Godot suggesting Nurse should be tried at 2 Rd.

He has the skating to play off hand and can’t pass to Russell anyway when KR is off hand. The may even be better that way as Russell could pass better and Nurse would have more options.

I want to try Nurse at right D with Sekera, not with Russell. With Russell, I want to find a way to shoot him into the sun! -)

OriginalPouzar March 29, 2019 - 9:03 am

Koskinen is not a good NHL starting goalie – he just isn’t. All one needs to do is watch the games to see that.

I will put a bit of stock in to “getting used to the NHL ice” – i would think that, over the course of a full season, that would be a non-factor, however here is hoping is still adjusting because, if this is him, well, it could be a tough 3 years.

Kinger_Oil.redux March 29, 2019 - 8:18 am

OriginalPouzar: You could be right but, at the same time, that’s the exact same type of reasoning that would suggest if Rieder scored 12-15 more goals this year, we’d be a playoff team…..

– Apply Koski’s sv% over Talbot’s starts = 14 goals less + 14 goals from Reider…Just saying

Kinger_Oil.redux March 29, 2019 - 8:05 am

OriginalPouzar: During the two month stretch from mid-December to mid- February, essentially the stretch that soiled the season, Talbot was better than Koskinen.

– ? Koski got pulled from two games in that sample size you cite. He started 11 games. Talbot 8.

Fun Facts:

– Talbot won 3/8, Koski 4/11 (same)

– Talbot had a shut out and one other game above .900 sv%. (25%) Koski had 5 starts above .900 (45%) – so worse

– When Koski was yanked: Talbot had same/worse sv%

– Koski had good starts after bad starts 3 times: Talbot once

– Koski >> Talbot. SV% .908 > .893. that’s the difference between playoff team and not

* If you directed your focus towards management with the same degree that you do with Koski you’d be cooking with fire.

– I don’t recall multiple posts per game about Talbot who was much worse than Koski.

OriginalPouzar March 29, 2019 - 7:42 am

Genjutsu: Maybe but if you take all Talbot’s shots against as an Oiler and apply a .908sv% you’d lower team goals against enough to sneak in the weak bottom of the west.

Like if you applied League worst sv% to Anderson’s mins in Toronto they miss the playoffs and the conversation shifts quite a bit in hog town.

Woodguy is right they should call it mostly goalie.

You could be right but, at the same time, that’s the exact same type of reasoning that would suggest if Rieder scored 12-15 more goals this year, we’d be a playoff team…..

Kinger_Oil.redux March 29, 2019 - 7:33 am

– I looked up Pat Verbeek: someone was saying he’d be a good candidate.

– Ex-player, Detroit tree-line: been with Tampa a long time, passed over by Brisebois, been given permission in past to talk to teams. He’s got IIHF/team Canada background as well

– I like the idea a lot: wonder if he’d take it: This is the type of profile we should go for: moved up in a good organization, strong track record, knows what he’s doing, ready to be GM in a good organization: “He was hired by the Lightning as director of professional scouting on June 8, 2010 and then named assistant general manager on July 1, 2011. Verbeek oversees all of the team’s professional scouting operations, aids in player procurement and reports directly to the general manager.”

– So he does good drafting, scouting, procurement: the good stuff…A successful version of MacT, Lowe, Howson, Keith: who are the GM’s in our org.

thelongdark March 29, 2019 - 7:23 am

OriginalPouzar: I don’t hate Koskinen, why would I hate him?

He’s just not a very good NHL goaltender – the evidence is mounting.

Niether goal against tonight was terrible (although he could have had the second one) but the fact is the goaltender at the other end, their back-up, made a bunch of saves and stole the game for his team.

Yeah well he’s got a .924 GAA this year, so that kind of play from their back up should have been expected.

Genjutsu March 29, 2019 - 6:57 am

OriginalPouzar: During the two month stretch from mid-December to mid- February, essentially the stretch that soiled the season, Talbot was better than Koskinen.

Maybe but if you take all Talbot’s shots against as an Oiler and apply a .908sv% you’d lower team goals against enough to sneak in the weak bottom of the west.

Like if you applied League worst sv% to Anderson’s mins in Toronto they miss the playoffs and the conversation shifts quite a bit in hog town.

Woodguy is right they should call it mostly goalie.

OriginalPouzar March 29, 2019 - 4:52 am

Genjutsu: You are aware that if Talbot had performed at Koskinen’s level the Oilers are a playoff team right?

During the two month stretch from mid-December to mid- February, essentially the stretch that soiled the season, Talbot was better than Koskinen.

OriginalPouzar March 29, 2019 - 4:50 am

Scungilli Slushy: That to me is the worst thing about the hopeless playoff pushes we’ve seen over the years. Especially when the team was out before Christmas. Win big or lose big. Excel at something.

How about excelling at showing some professional pride and continuing to provide full effort until the final buzzer in game 82?

That’s easy for guys like Joe G., Currie, etc., Rieder, etc. who are fighting for jobs and/or contracts next year but for guys like Kassian, Nuge, Drai, Nurse, Larsson, etc., not as easy and full credit to all of them for their effort recently.

OriginalPouzar March 29, 2019 - 4:45 am

OilClog: Pretty easy to look tremendous when 18 AHL levels shooters are aiming their barrels at you

He made a number of very nice stops last night – stop on shot that the 2nd goal against Koskinen were equivalent too in terms of level of danger. He made all the tops necessary to keep his team in it to give them a chance to tie it and, eventually get the bonus point.

Genjutsu March 29, 2019 - 4:12 am

leadfarmer: Don’t disagree.The contract was beyond stupid
The player is very avg
Koskinen is Finnish for meh
But it’s not his fault he was signed to a stupid contract just like it wasn’t Horcoffs fault
Someone throws money at you you take it

You are aware that if Talbot had performed at Koskinen’s level the Oilers are a playoff team right?

Pretendergast March 28, 2019 - 11:16 pm

Bit late but i bet Bruce will love that the last 6 games the Oilers have had 6 powerplays, 1 per game. I don’t know how either.

Decidedly Skeptical Fan March 28, 2019 - 11:16 pm

Glovjuice: Agreed. He and his agent played the Soilers incompetent management drunkards like a bunch of fucking fools – which they are. Awful embarrassment of a management team. Horrendous. $40pop, burger and a beer – it’s disgusting. That’s the tab for an adult and 8 year old for intermission. Sickening.

“Incompetent management drunkards” is a mouthful and makes it look like you’re trying too hard. I prefer the more concise “fucking fools”. It also rolls off the tongue nicely.

Scungilli Slushy March 28, 2019 - 11:03 pm

Glovjuice: They can’t even drop 6 points right over the last 10 useless games to get a 1-3 better draft slot. Is this reverse incompetence ? Not even sure.

That to me is the worst thing about the hopeless playoff pushes we’ve seen over the years. Especially when the team was out before Christmas. Win big or lose big. Excel at something.

JimmyV1965 March 28, 2019 - 11:03 pm

I thought Koskinnen was meh tonight. He didn’t cost us the game and that’s something. Thought the defence played well tonight. They moved the puck forward quite well I thought. The forwards though, simply can’t convert. Lots of pressure, but little skill. The big three were the only players to even register a point. This is madness!!!Frickin hated seeing Lucic on the second line near the end of the game.

hunter1909 March 28, 2019 - 10:29 pm

I found this hilarity on ESPN’s rankings of every NHL team’s secret MVPs:

Tobias Rieder: I mean, if the team’s CEO says the Oilers would have been a playoff team if a guy skating 12 minutes per game had scored a few more goals, how is this person not the most valuable player?

Glovjuice March 28, 2019 - 10:25 pm

hunter1909:
Thankfully the team salvaged a point. This will help them in their playoff push.

They can’t even drop 6 points right over the last 10 useless games to get a 1-3 better draft slot. Is this reverse incompetence ? Not even sure.

Glovjuice March 28, 2019 - 10:23 pm

Scungilli Slushy:
Connor looked so bagged tonight in the end of the game I caught.

i’m on pins and needles about Burger’s decisions. And that he’d making them. Or above.

Burger is a bumbling fool. What an embarrassment. Any hockey executive who allows that Koskinen signing to happen as the incumbent GM is about to be fired should be embarrassed to show their face at the podium and in all hockey circles in perpetuity.

hunter1909 March 28, 2019 - 10:23 pm

Thankfully the team salvaged a point. This will help them in their playoff push.

DevilsLettuce March 28, 2019 - 10:21 pm

OriginalPouzar: I don’t hate Koskinen, why would I hate him?

He’s just not a very good NHL goaltender – the evidence is mounting.

Niether goal against tonight was terrible (although he could have had the second one) but the fact is the goaltender at the other end, their back-up, made a bunch of saves and stole the game for his team.

Pretty easy to look tremendous when 18 AHL levels shooters are aiming their barrels at you

hunter1909 March 28, 2019 - 10:21 pm

OilClog: Will the new GM trade Leon for Johnny Boychuk.. or will the new GM be awake? I’m starting to wonder they put in the coffee round those parts. Rexall’s can’t beleve it’s not sugar, sugar.

“Old cokeheads never die”.

DevilsLettuce March 28, 2019 - 10:19 pm

Glovjuice: It’s arguably the stupidest signing in Oilers history. The process was horrendous. Analysis terrible. Outcome brutal. The Oilers are fucked. Totally fucked.

Doesn’t break the top 20 for this franchise.

They’re not totally fucked, Kosk has a weak glove, Oilers have 3.5 defenceman every full moon otherwise 2.3 defenceman every game. If they would Provide a functioning 3 sets of D to ice on a nightly basis the true face of why the Oilers are fucked will prevail.

Traded their abundance of skill for character and truculence, while letting the actual character making a positive impact also walk.

Oilers must now hope there is a organization out there with a inordinate amount of skill with little to no high paid character and truculence that only crippling contracts can provide.

Will the new GM trade Leon for Johnny Boychuk.. or will the new GM be awake? I’m starting to wonder they put in the coffee round those parts. Rexall’s can’t beleve it’s not sugar, sugar.

Scungilli Slushy March 28, 2019 - 10:13 pm

Connor looked so bagged tonight in the end of the game I caught.

i’m on pins and needles about Burger’s decisions. And that he’d making them. Or above.

Glovjuice March 28, 2019 - 10:12 pm

leadfarmer: Still don’t get the Strome trade.
They threw him away because he wasn’t as good as they thought he was when they traded for him (which they should have known)
But he is definitely better than the guys they brought back in subsequent trades

Trade a solid to low solid right shot, 15 G scoring, penalty killing centre now playing for a playoff team for a broken, slow, AHL winger. Holy shit. OP, but his NYI numbers suck right ? Man.

OriginalPouzar March 28, 2019 - 10:11 pm

Professor Q: Luck as well. Two + McDavid shots that almost went in but weren’t stopped by the goalie.

Cogliano hit the post a well.

Khuodobin made the saves, including the ones that “wouldn’t have been bad goals”.

Needed one of those from Koskinen and didn’t get it.

OriginalPouzar March 28, 2019 - 10:11 pm

leadfarmer: It’s funny how much you hate Koskinen
First goal was a very high danger scoring chance (high danger chance that the goalie cannot get set for)
Second goal the f bailed on the play and Heiskanen showed off his crazy good wrister.Most g don’t make that save

I don’t hate Koskinen, why would I hate him?

He’s just not a very good NHL goaltender – the evidence is mounting.

Niether goal against tonight was terrible (although he could have had the second one) but the fact is the goaltender at the other end, their back-up, made a bunch of saves and stole the game for his team.

Scungilli Slushy March 28, 2019 - 10:10 pm

hunter1909: Strome always looked good to me. I’m only a Tier X fan so what do I know lol

Strome was bland and is, but a RHC whose line didn’t get punked. INTO THE SUN!!!!

And here we are.

Scungilli Slushy March 28, 2019 - 10:07 pm

hunter1909: A horrible idea, bringing back a useless ex-player. Off the charts stupid. Why am I not surprised?

Not a choice, a cap strung swing for the fences. I would have in Kretzky’s shoes.

But players wanting to come ‘home’ is plain wrong minded if management wants to win and haven’t screwed themselves.

The GM needs to be fair, but ruthless. Buddies on the golf course, assassin on the phone circuit. Or email, or whatever.

hunter1909 March 28, 2019 - 10:03 pm

Scungilli Slushy:
Gagner is now too rich to be a player of interest, or interested.

A horrible idea, bringing back a useless ex-player. Off the charts stupid. Why am I not surprised?

Scungilli Slushy March 28, 2019 - 10:01 pm

Gagner is now too rich to be a player of interest, or interested.

Scungilli Slushy March 28, 2019 - 9:59 pm

There is only one reason Chiasson should be in the NHL still, and he blew that thing when it mattered most. Completely.

Re-up 3 x 4 coming soon.

Save us. Somebody.

hunter1909 March 28, 2019 - 9:59 pm

leadfarmer: Still don’t get the Strome trade.
They threw him away because he wasn’t as good as they thought he was when they traded for him (which they should have known)
But he is definitely better than the guys they brought back in subsequent trades

Strome always looked good to me. I’m only a Tier X fan so what do I know lol

Glovjuice March 28, 2019 - 9:58 pm

leadfarmer: Don’t disagree.The contract was beyond stupid
The player is very avg
Koskinen is Finnish for meh
But it’s not his fault he was signed to a stupid contract just like it wasn’t Horcoffs fault
Someone throws money at you you take it

Agreed. He and his agent played the Soilers incompetent management drunkards like a bunch of fucking fools – which they are. Awful embarrassment of a management team. Horrendous. $40 pop, burger and a beer – it’s disgusting. That’s the tab for an adult and 8 year old for intermission. Sickening.

hunter1909 March 28, 2019 - 9:56 pm

Glovjuice: Ah hahhahahahahhahaha. You are correct. Total nightmare of nightmares it is. Gross. It’s pharyngeal reflex inducing, actually. FireTaylorHall.

Being an Oilers fan is like volunteering to get beaten up by a gang of hooligans. After the kicking it’s impossible to figure out exactly which 3 hooligans out of 10 hit you the hardest.

leadfarmer March 28, 2019 - 9:53 pm

hunter1909: Astonishingly Gagner is a decent addition. Since returning he’s provided zilch(hardly shocking since he’s already been waived through the NHL).

Still don’t get the Strome trade.
They threw him away because he wasn’t as good as they thought he was when they traded for him (which they should have known)
But he is definitely better than the guys they brought back in subsequent trades

Ice Sage March 28, 2019 - 9:52 pm

I had trouble predicting the Oiler SO shooters after the first 3.

’nuff said

Glovjuice March 28, 2019 - 9:52 pm

hunter1909: LMAO Oilers have a litany of dumbass moves as many as 10 completely impacting this team. Even if you’re 100% correct, the line forms on the left.

Ah hahhahahahahhahaha. You are correct. Total nightmare of nightmares it is. Gross. It’s pharyngeal reflex inducing, actually. FireTaylorHall.

hunter1909 March 28, 2019 - 9:51 pm

leadfarmer: Someone throws money at you you take it

Katz’s Oilers think spending to the salary cap on mediocre players makes it look like they’re on top of things in Kkatz’s eyes and guess what they’re freaking 100% right.

They also love handing out NMC’s because it makes them appear as if players are desperate to stay in Edmonton.

BONE207 March 28, 2019 - 9:49 pm

JimmyV1965:
The amount of clutching, grabbing, obstruction and interference that Dallas got away with was staggering.

I think it was ’90s night tonight just to make Hitch feel more at home…or homesick

hunter1909 March 28, 2019 - 9:48 pm

JimmyV1965:
The amount of clutching, grabbing, obstruction and interference that Dallas got away with was staggering.

Say whatever, but Oilers defence is pathetic.

+ the entire bottom 9 sans RNH

leadfarmer March 28, 2019 - 9:48 pm

Glovjuice: It’s arguably the stupidest signing in Oilers history. The process was horrendous. Analysis terrible. Outcome brutal. The Oilers are fucked. Totally fucked.

Don’t disagree. The contract was beyond stupid
The player is very avg
Koskinen is Finnish for meh
But it’s not his fault he was signed to a stupid contract just like it wasn’t Horcoffs fault
Someone throws money at you you take it

hunter1909 March 28, 2019 - 9:47 pm

Professor Q: Wait, I thought Lucic or Russell took that title?

The hive mind needs a decisive answer.

Astonishingly Gagner is a decent addition. Since returning he’s provided zilch(hardly shocking since he’s already been waived through the NHL).

JimmyV1965 March 28, 2019 - 9:46 pm

The amount of clutching, grabbing, obstruction and interference that Dallas got away with was staggering.

Professor Q March 28, 2019 - 9:46 pm

hunter1909:
Putting Gagner in is simply cruel.

Shootout King, though. Not that bad of a decision even if he missed.

Professor Q March 28, 2019 - 9:45 pm

Glovjuice: It’s arguably the stupidest signing in Oilers history. The process was horrendous. Analysis terrible. Outcome brutal. The Oilers are fucked. Totally fucked.

Wait, I thought Lucic or Russell took that title?

The hive mind needs a decisive answer.

Gerta Rauss March 28, 2019 - 9:45 pm

Benn with the winner in the shootout

hunter1909 March 28, 2019 - 9:45 pm

Glovjuice: It’s arguably the stupidest signing in Oilers history. The process was horrendous. Analysis terrible. Outcome brutal. The Oilers are fucked. Totally fucked.

LMAO Oilers have a litany of dumbass moves as many as 10 completely impacting this team. Even if you’re 100% correct, the line forms on the left.

leadfarmer March 28, 2019 - 9:45 pm

Chaisson with the Roberto Baggio

Gerta Rauss March 28, 2019 - 9:44 pm

5 shooters deep now..

hunter1909 March 28, 2019 - 9:44 pm

Putting Gagner in is simply cruel.

Gerta Rauss March 28, 2019 - 9:43 pm

whew…

Glovjuice March 28, 2019 - 9:42 pm

leadfarmer: It’s funny how much you hate Koskinen
First goal was a very high danger scoring chance (high danger chance that the goalie cannot get set for)
Second goal the f bailed on the play and Heiskanen showed off his crazy good wrister.Most g don’t make that save

It’s arguably the stupidest signing in Oilers history. The process was horrendous. Analysis terrible. Outcome brutal. The Oilers are fucked. Totally fucked.

hunter1909 March 28, 2019 - 9:42 pm

That’s for drafting “Taylor” Seguin.

hunter1909 March 28, 2019 - 9:40 pm

Gerta Rauss:
Lots of excitement in the OT-nuthin’ doin’

-gagner
-Nuce
-Connor are my picks

No Roeder?

BONE207 March 28, 2019 - 9:40 pm

Last goal wins!!!

Gerta Rauss March 28, 2019 - 9:40 pm

Lots of excitement in the OT-nuthin’ doin’

-Gagner
-Nuge
-Connor are my picks

hunter1909 March 28, 2019 - 9:40 pm

Professor Q:
Why are they calling Hintz, “Henns”? I know he’s Finnish, but it just seems weird.

The same reason they call St. John, Sin-gin”.

theDjdj March 28, 2019 - 9:39 pm

shoot outs are such an absolute waste of time. I’d be happy if they ran another commercial break and then came out of another 5min

Professor Q March 28, 2019 - 9:37 pm

Why are they calling Hintz, “Henns”? I know he’s Finnish, but it just seems weird (to a more Germanic speaker).

digger50 March 28, 2019 - 9:32 pm

I thought Oikersxwere much better team tonight and the score has no business being 2-2.

hunter1909 March 28, 2019 - 9:30 pm

digger50: I would say Oilers defence is better than the stars, at least tonightbthey are. Yet stars goalie has performed well.

Stars are nothing to write home about. They make the playoffs then hope to win a round then probably golf 2 weeks later than the Oilers.

Professor Q March 28, 2019 - 9:30 pm

Dallas has been getting away with a lot of interference.

I guess after the refs had joined in they thought it was perfectly fine to amp up their game?

hunter1909 March 28, 2019 - 9:29 pm

Oilers Defence: The defence that keeps on giving(to the opposition)

BONE207 March 28, 2019 - 9:27 pm

Koski held the stop sign the right way that time

Paulie March 28, 2019 - 9:27 pm

Decent save

digger50 March 28, 2019 - 9:26 pm

Big save for Koski

Lowetide March 28, 2019 - 9:26 pm

MASSIVE save Koskinen.

little.fiery.one March 28, 2019 - 9:26 pm

We need to spend some time in the other end, please.

BONE207 March 28, 2019 - 9:25 pm

leadfarmer: It’s funny how much you hate Koskinen
First goal was a very high danger scoring chance (high danger chance that the goalie cannot get set for)
Second goal the f bailed on the play and Heiskanen showed off his crazy good wrister.Most g don’t make that save

When he went to Disneyland there was a ride that said you had to be “this high”. Well he wasn’t that high so they sent him away. The ride was called The Koskinen. Ever since then…

Professor Q March 28, 2019 - 9:24 pm

I love how we have a player wearing a cage while another is wearing a shield. I wonder if medically, one is recommended over the other for certain ailments? Maybe they discussed it with each other?

Paulie March 28, 2019 - 9:23 pm

Saw 2-4 and 25-83 pairings

Professor Q March 28, 2019 - 9:20 pm

dsr29:
That goalie for Dallas battles everytime to find the puck. Fun to watch.

Except when the puck went wide (Klefbom’s shot) and bounced off the boards while Khudobin was out. He barely looked back.

If that was McDavid or Draisaitl forechecking and not Kassian, the puck might have been in the net before Kudobin made it back to his crease.

digger50 March 28, 2019 - 9:20 pm

hunter1909: +good Defence matters even more

I would say Oilers defence is better than the stars, at least tonightbthey are. Yet stars goalie has performed well.

Professor Q March 28, 2019 - 9:18 pm

OriginalPouzar:
Oilers outshooting starts by more than double, 35-16 but the game is tied – goaltending matters……..

Luck as well. Two + McDavid shots that almost went in but weren’t stopped by the goalie.

leadfarmer March 28, 2019 - 9:18 pm

OriginalPouzar:
Oilers outshooting starts by more than double, 35-16 but the game is tied – goaltending matters……..

It’s funny how much you hate Koskinen
First goal was a very high danger scoring chance (high danger chance that the goalie cannot get set for)
Second goal the f bailed on the play and Heiskanen showed off his crazy good wrister. Most g don’t make that save

BONE207 March 28, 2019 - 9:17 pm

hunter1909:
They’re not making the playoffs regardless of the outcome tonight.

I mean, really.

Coming here just for your insight makes it worthwhile ?

dsr29 March 28, 2019 - 9:16 pm

That goalie for Dallas battles everytime to find the puck. Fun to watch.

hunter1909 March 28, 2019 - 9:15 pm

OriginalPouzar:
Oilers outshooting starts by more than double, 35-16 but the game is tied – goaltending matters……..

+good Defence matters even more

Zelepukin March 28, 2019 - 9:15 pm

flyfish1168:
Glove side again

It’s kind of like he is holding a frisbee vertically and isn’t allowed to move it around.

Actually, if you told me his shoulder was messed and he couldn’t raise his arm above his head, I’d believe you.

hunter1909 March 28, 2019 - 9:14 pm

Looks like Lovejoy is more lover than fighter.

OriginalPouzar March 28, 2019 - 9:13 pm

Oilers outshooting starts by more than double, 35-16 but the game is tied – goaltending matters……..

hunter1909 March 28, 2019 - 9:13 pm

They’re not making the playoffs regardless of the outcome tonight.

I mean, really.

leadfarmer March 28, 2019 - 9:12 pm

Currie Russels his way out of the play

hunter1909 March 28, 2019 - 9:10 pm

1st you see a brace of Oilers players literally on their bellies right behind the Dallas goal and think “Hmmm, this looks like one of those iconic GIF situations…with the Oiler’s shit defence there appears to be a guaranteed goal coming up…then Boom! Dallas Scores!

leadfarmer March 28, 2019 - 9:10 pm

leadfarmer:
Those Stars got a good one in Heiskanen.First year in North America and playing top minutes

And then he scores.
Le sigh

flyfish1168 March 28, 2019 - 9:09 pm

Glove side again

jp March 28, 2019 - 9:08 pm

leadfarmer:
Those Stars got a good one in Heiskanen.First year in North America and playing top minutes

+1

Fuck.

leadfarmer March 28, 2019 - 9:05 pm

Those Stars got a good one in Heiskanen. First year in North America and playing top minutes

Professor Q March 28, 2019 - 9:03 pm

RIEDER! RIEDER! RIEDER!

Come on, man. You aren’t going to get many more prime McDavid passes like that. Don’t pass them back to him without shooting first…

OriginalPouzar March 28, 2019 - 9:00 pm

oilersfan:
OriginalPouzar,

OP

I think you intended to answer but the answer didn’t show up

7th in GF
21st in GA
23rd in GF%

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/teamtable.php

oilersfan March 28, 2019 - 8:54 pm

OriginalPouzar,

OP

I think you intended to answer but the answer didn’t show up

jp March 28, 2019 - 8:50 pm

OriginalPouzar: I specifically remember a solid stretch last season where Russell really had his ice cut – down to 3rd pairing and vastly reduce PK time.It was noticeable given how much McLellan trusted Russell.

Also, both this season and last season Russell started on the 3rd pairing as Benning started the year at 2RD – I believe.

You’re completely correct, Russell did play 3rd pair a bit (largely replaced by Benning at 2R). My focus was if Klef/Nurse/Russell-Benning ever played as 3rd pair. I don’t recall that in the past 2 yrs. If that’s correct, Benning’s time with those guys had to be 2nd pair, which was my original point (unless Sekera was playing 2nd pair with one of the others – which I don’t think was a thing).

Lowetide March 28, 2019 - 8:46 pm

After Two:

2-1 Edmonton (1-1 in the second period)
31-12 Edmonton shots (16-6 in the second period)
33-22 Edmonton Corsi 5-on-5 (22-10 Edmonton in the second period)

I love this game. I don’t think two goals wins it though.

OriginalPouzar March 28, 2019 - 8:43 pm

oilersfan:
Can anybody here be kind enough to show me how to find the oilers rank for 5×5 scoring?

PP is 9th
PK is 30
How are we 5×5?

Thanks in advance !

7th in GF
21st in GA
23rd in GF%

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/teamtable.php

Tesla's Hair March 28, 2019 - 8:39 pm

3 players have 5 points
14 players combine for 0 points

Is it better to have 3 superstars
Or better to have 14 goodplayers

3 superstars more fun to watch
Although if we win Hughes maybe we can do a Lindros
And get another solid 5 players?

No wonder McD says “Whatever” when they ask him about McD

Zelepukin March 28, 2019 - 8:39 pm

Did that shot put Rieder as the all time most shots without a goal?

OriginalPouzar March 28, 2019 - 8:37 pm

jp: Maybe my mind is shot. When did any of Klefbom, Nurse or Russell play 3rd pair in the past 2 years? Who was playing 2nd pair when they were 3rd pair? When did Sekera play 2nd pair? Apologies if I’m wrong, but I don’t remember any of this stuff.

I specifically remember a solid stretch last season where Russell really had his ice cut – down to 3rd pairing and vastly reduce PK time. It was noticeable given how much McLellan trusted Russell.

Also, both this season and last season Russell started on the 3rd pairing as Benning started the year at 2RD – I believe.

BONE207 March 28, 2019 - 8:36 pm

I love you CONNOR
He’s playing some immaculate hockey lately
Please Gord, let him win a Stanley cup

Oil2Oilers March 28, 2019 - 8:35 pm

McDavid seems to elevate his game this time of year

Oil2Oilers March 28, 2019 - 8:33 pm

leadfarmer:
Oil2Oilers,

I like that line.It’s not ideal but it’s duct taped together and works

Yes, I was trying to hammer a point home but only had a rubber mallet

Gerta Rauss March 28, 2019 - 8:32 pm

Nurse-Benning at the moment while Russell is out(blocked shot)

BONE207 March 28, 2019 - 8:31 pm

Melvis:
I can’t imagine having a serving platter on my left hand and missing that last shot. Would be Finnish goalers should spend summers playing baseball.

Well that’s the problem right there. If you’re holding it like a platter it’s the wrong angle. Maybe he should become a crosswalk attendant holding a stop sign. Success will be measured in how many rundown kids he prevents.

Lowetide March 28, 2019 - 8:30 pm

Larsson thinks he’s at the rodeo tonight and I love it.

dessert1111 March 28, 2019 - 8:29 pm

I think the first option for 1RW next year needs to be someone not currently in the organization, but as a second or third option Kassian is looking viable over the last month or so.

OriginalPouzar March 28, 2019 - 8:28 pm

Whoa, that may have been the first time I’ve ever seen a full flight McDavid not able to pull away from someone – Janmark!

Gerta Rauss March 28, 2019 - 8:27 pm

leadfarmer:
I’m curious why when refs cause an unfair advantage they don’t blow the play dead

This is the NHL

OriginalPouzar March 28, 2019 - 8:26 pm

The entire hockey world knew that was a 99.9% chance that McDavid was pass that puck to Drai on that 2 on 1.

leadfarmer March 28, 2019 - 8:25 pm

I’m curious why when refs cause an unfair advantage they don’t blow the play dead

Professor Q March 28, 2019 - 8:24 pm

OriginalPouzar:
Radulov goal a direct result of the official getting in the way leading to the Oilers not being able to clear the puck – bad luck.

No ramifications of this? Referees rarely get reprimanded.

Melvis March 28, 2019 - 8:23 pm

I can’t imagine having a serving platter on my left hand and missing that last shot. Would be Finnish goalers should spend summers playing baseball.

OriginalPouzar March 28, 2019 - 8:23 pm

Radulov goal a direct result of the official getting in the way leading to the Oilers not being able to clear the puck – bad luck.

leadfarmer March 28, 2019 - 8:21 pm

Oil2Oilers,

I like that line. It’s not ideal but it’s duct taped together and works

oilersfan March 28, 2019 - 8:21 pm

This team needs a high end right shot face off man/ penalty killer more than it needs a 2 rd.

That PP goal took 21 seconds!!

Ben March 28, 2019 - 8:21 pm

Oilers will be going with a 1C/1D goalie rotation next year.

oilersfan March 28, 2019 - 8:19 pm

Can anybody here be kind enough to show me how to find the oilers rank for 5×5 scoring?

PP is 9th
PK is 30
How are we 5×5?

Thanks in advance !

OriginalPouzar March 28, 2019 - 8:18 pm

I’m not caught up to live yet but, my goodness, that goal by McDavid – geez.

Great play by Drai to cause the turnover.

Oil2Oilers March 28, 2019 - 8:18 pm

Kassian in the Cat Bird seat with Drai and McDavid is growing on me. He was not up for the task years back with the Sedin brothers. Maturity, sobriety, fatherhood all seem to be sitting well for him, long may it continue. He has always had the tools and now only one screw loose.

BONE207 March 28, 2019 - 8:17 pm

Hi Gang…
So after just reading today’s article, what makes this team so good on March? Isn’t March the time when teams are mostly gearing up for playoffs so there’s no easy games? Maybe OEG will have to charge preseason prices until February if this keeps up.

Zelepukin March 28, 2019 - 8:15 pm

wow his glove is incredibly weak.

Gerta Rauss March 28, 2019 - 8:08 pm

McFilthy with his 40th

Drai with the helper

Ben March 28, 2019 - 8:07 pm

HOLY SHIT

Lowetide March 28, 2019 - 8:06 pm

McDavid scored. Holy shit.

Lowetide March 28, 2019 - 8:02 pm

After One:

1-0 Edmonton
15-6 Edmonton shots
11-10 Dallas Corsi 5-on-5

Fun period.

jp March 28, 2019 - 8:01 pm

Woodguy v2.0: Most of those minutes were still 3rd pair.

The ones with Sekera were 2nd pair.

Benning has value because he can play 3rd pair and 2nd pair in a pinch.

If you are relying on his to be your 2RD you are not deep enough.

Disclaimer: I have a tough time saying a 3rd pairing guy can play up the roster unless he’s killing 3rd pair.

Maybe my mind is shot. When did any of Klefbom, Nurse or Russell play 3rd pair in the past 2 years? Who was playing 2nd pair when they were 3rd pair? When did Sekera play 2nd pair? Apologies if I’m wrong, but I don’t remember any of this stuff.

I’m not sure anyone has suggested Benning is ideal at 2RD. I agree he isn’t. My view is that he may be passable for now (that is, as good as, or potentially better than Russell). I think a “real 2RD” acquisition, for 2 yrs, isn’t going to be trivial (requiring disposal of a 4M+ contract and probably also assets out), so not sure it’d be worth it. I think the Oilers can make the playoffs next season with the current D (in whatever configuration), but that’s not the same as saying the team is deep or a real contender.

And what would you consider killing the 3rd pair? Benning has the 12th best GF% Rel over the past 2 yrs among NHL D. That’s not all on the fly shifts, is it?

Ben March 28, 2019 - 8:00 pm

Gene going full Sicilian Hagrid here.

Zelepukin March 28, 2019 - 7:54 pm

Lowetide:
Nuge has more torque on his fastball this season.

Deceivingly so too. It’s same same but different to Drai. Both have heavy fast shots but their body position doesn’t make it obvious.

Zelepukin March 28, 2019 - 7:52 pm

Gerta Rauss:
that’s a pretty strong period

Oilers 15-5 shots

Agreed. Only a couple moments where the puck was bouncing and they couldn’t get the puck out cleanly. Otherwise, good pressure on their D and the forwards were taking away the middle of the ice well.

Drai is on a deadly tear tonight. He’ll pot another one.

Gerta Rauss March 28, 2019 - 7:47 pm

that’s a pretty strong period

Oilers 15-5 shots

OriginalPouzar March 28, 2019 - 7:45 pm

Gerta Rauss: baby steps..?

we’ll take it

Failure of an experiment – that had previously had 1 shift and 1 goal now its two shifts and one goal (but, again, 100% possession.

OriginalPouzar March 28, 2019 - 7:44 pm

Not that anyone cares but I’ve got to go pick up the wife and will watch on tape delay when I return (always watch with zero knowledge of the game, every game). Should catch up to live for the 3rd and will be back to celebrate #48!

Gerta Rauss March 28, 2019 - 7:43 pm

OriginalPouzar:
Sekera and Nurse together for the 4 on 4 – Sekera on the right side.

baby steps..?

we’ll take it

OriginalPouzar March 28, 2019 - 7:42 pm

Sekera and Nurse together for the 4 on 4 – Sekera on the right side.

Lowetide March 28, 2019 - 7:41 pm

Nuge has more torque on his fastball this season.

OriginalPouzar March 28, 2019 - 7:35 pm

No goals for Ovi tonight – 49G with 4 games to play.

I love Ovie and always cheer for him – not any more this season….

Gerta Rauss March 28, 2019 - 7:29 pm

they changed the assists to Mcd and Nuge on Leon’s goal…more Nuge points..!…65 now on the season…we want 70!!

OriginalPouzar March 28, 2019 - 7:27 pm

Not that I have any desire to go over 2 years or over $1.75M, I will say that Chiasson is playing his best hockey of the season now – even better than when he was super hot for that month earlier in the season – I felt like he was just getting a shot or two a game back then and taking advantage but not really contributing too much to the offence generally. Right now, I see him actually being a solid contributor and consistently.

Scungilli Slushy March 28, 2019 - 7:25 pm

Jesse as a pre pro talent was one of the best in the world. He can skate, shoot pretty well , pass, he’s a horse.

He’s also somewhat intimidating I think as I’ve seen older players back off of him. Might be that his helmet sits an inch higher than normal, strongly emphasizing he is a large dude.

What i want to see is the team using him as what he is. The biggest mistake the Oilers repeatedly make is drafting players and trying to make them play a different game than what made them successful in the first place.

That doesn’t include learning to play defensively in the nhl, all players need to up their game there.

It’s why I’ve said they should put Jesse as easy parade centre. Gives them another right shot, he does the roaming anyway and has the boots and size for it. Like Godot suggesting Nurse should be tried at 2 Rd.

He has the skating to play off hand and can’t pass to Russell anyway when KR is off hand. The may even be better that way as Russell could pass better and Nurse would have more options.

JP needs to be put in a position to play his rushing thebpuck game , not be asked to be a board banging winger which is what he’s been asked to do it seems.

The team that uses him properly will be happy. Loads of drive and a pretty decent kid it seems.

OriginalPouzar March 28, 2019 - 7:23 pm

RonnieB: Maybe if the ATO shows promising results Jersey will offer a late pick to re-acquire his rights rather than wait till he is a free agent … is that mid-August ?

August 15.

OriginalPouzar March 28, 2019 - 7:20 pm

Ryan McLeod ties up the game for Saginaw with under 4 minutes to go.

OriginalPouzar March 28, 2019 - 7:18 pm

Drai with number 47 off some amazing post-PP pressure. 100 points.

Beautiful pass from McDavid.

A wonderful shift by Klefbom (who made a great pass to set up Chiasson a few seconds earlier.

Gerta Rauss March 28, 2019 - 7:18 pm

47 for Drai….we want 50!!!

…and 100 points!!

Gerta Rauss March 28, 2019 - 7:14 pm

OriginalPouzar:
Oh, right, I forgot that Cogs was moved to Dallas – seems odd to see him in that jersey.

thank god it was him with the first shot on Koskinen…no way HE scores….LoL…

OriginalPouzar March 28, 2019 - 7:13 pm

Beautiful passing play – Drai to McDavid to Kass – Kass draws a PP driving the net.

Lowetide March 28, 2019 - 7:13 pm

Nice sequence there that ends in a penalty call against Dallas.

OriginalPouzar March 28, 2019 - 7:11 pm

Oh, right, I forgot that Cogs was moved to Dallas – seems odd to see him in that jersey.

Biggus Dickus March 28, 2019 - 7:03 pm

Nuges Bank Account:
Jeff Petry with a beautiful goal. From a helluva angle. Number 12 on the season. That’s a pretty good dman, I tell ya.

He’a too soft. He should be more out of position so that he can block shots and hit people.

Biggus Dickus March 28, 2019 - 7:01 pm

OriginalPouzar:
Tyler Benson is 2nd in the AHL in scoring in 2019 – not rookie scoring, overall scoring.He’s is torching the AHL along with the help of Marody.

Marody/Benson are the McDavid/Drai of the AHL.

Tyler Benson will definitely be in the conversation for an NHL job next year.

I think most of us thought of him as an eventual middle 6 player as injuries maybe have robbed him of his initial ceiling.

I’m not so sure he hasn’t raised his ceiling back to where it once was when he was in the conversation for exceptional status coming in to the WHL.

Keep going Tyler!

I remember when we teased him on the bus because we were friends with his brother. Super excited to see him do well.

OriginalPouzar March 28, 2019 - 7:00 pm

Go Oilers!

Come on Mikko, lets not make it 7 sub-par games in a row.

BornInAGretzkyJersey March 28, 2019 - 6:45 pm

Andy Dufresne,

I believe they’re looking to implement that in the EU to enforce speed limits.

End result, “they” know where you are at all times & how briskly you’re going about your business.

Melvis March 28, 2019 - 6:40 pm

Woodguy v2.0,

I’m down with that. Currently, the “planned” road trip or flight tends to get overturned by unforeseen events. Open ended is better. It’s a process, but soon come;-)

Woodguy v2.0 March 28, 2019 - 6:15 pm

Melvis: Now that’s high praise.

On another note, I wanted to get on the band wagon with yet another thanks….reading your input twice today.

High praise sir.

Also,

Bendelson is serious about cocktails and hockey if you find your way here.

I’d be up for that.

If it’s summer it would be cocktails and lawnbowling but that’s ok too.

Melvis March 28, 2019 - 6:05 pm

Woodguy v2.0: Fucking Bendelson.

Now that’s high praise.

On another note, I wanted to get on the band wagon with yet another thanks….reading your input twice today.

Woodguy v2.0 March 28, 2019 - 5:46 pm

jp: I’m curious your thoughts on the Benning numbers I posted earlier. That he’s played just shy of half of his 5 on 5 minutes over the past 2 years with one of Klefbom, Nurse or Russell, and that those pairings have had a GF% of 56%.

I appreciate that overall he’s been protected from elites and that he’s been sheltered even in his minutes vs elites, but those results with Klef/Nurse/Russell are really good and in a >900 minute sample.

Do you think those weren’t top 4 minutes? Or that Benning was likely being protected even in the minutes with Klef/Nurse/Russell? Something else?

I’m having a hard time from those numbers concluding anything other than “Benning’s results have been really damn good when played in a top 4 role”.

For reference, the GF% WOWY for each from NST (with/without)
Klefbom 48.9 41.2
Nurse 66.7 49.8
Russell 60.0 48.2

Most of those minutes were still 3rd pair.

The ones with Sekera were 2nd pair.

Benning has value because he can play 3rd pair and 2nd pair in a pinch.

If you are relying on his to be your 2RD you are not deep enough.

Disclaimer: I have a tough time saying a 3rd pairing guy can play up the roster unless he’s killing 3rd pair.

Lowetide March 28, 2019 - 5:42 pm

OriginalPouzar: As I said, I would think the Oilers org would have zero interest in signing him, i just found it odd given the y have his rights. Didn’t know it was possible to sign an actual contract with another org, even an AHL ATO – would have thought we’d trade our rights (yes, trades can be made post-deadline) for “future considerations”.

I think we’re assuming in this conversation Edmonton has his rights. They may have renounced them, possibly after NJD or agent pursued. I don’t think anyone can make the case that Dudek earned a contract.

To your overall point, Edmonton not informing the fans, I am in full agreement. They should let fans know.

Woodguy v2.0 March 28, 2019 - 5:37 pm

Georgexs: “There is real skills involved in hockey (defending, passing, shooting, etc) that help drive each player’s results and these skills are not equally distributed so looking closer at individual players is required.”

Cool. We’re agreed shooting is a skill? Because there’s a lot of regression to the mean stuff out there based on players’ results that says shooting isn’t a skill.

I disagree

Shooting is a skill.

One of the skills involved is the skill of the passer.

This is one of the reasons that we created WoodMoney

When looking at the whole population of NHLers you can come to conclusions that don’t apply to everyone.

The vast majority of NHLers are very close in many skills and when looking at the population it seems that they are all the same, but they’re not.

I remember reading one of these pieces and how we should expect Stamkos’ SH% to regress heavily because he was over 17% for his career at the end of 2013.

It’s near the end of 2019 and his career SH% Ia 18.7%

Stamkos is an extreme example, but talent exists on the player level and you cannot see it if you look at the entire population.

RonnieB March 28, 2019 - 5:27 pm

OriginalPouzar: As I said, I would think the Oilers org would have zero interest in signing him, i just found it odd given the y have his rights. Didn’t know it was possible to sign an actual contract with another org, even an AHL ATO – would have thought we’d trade our rights (yes, trades can be made post-deadline) for “future considerations”.

Maybe if the ATO shows promising results Jersey will offer a late pick to re-acquire his rights rather than wait till he is a free agent … is that mid-August ?

OriginalPouzar March 28, 2019 - 5:21 pm

Ryan McLeod and, shockingly, Evan Bouchard, with assists less than two minutes in to their respective games.

Woodguy v2.0 March 28, 2019 - 5:20 pm

SwedishPoster: I like Strålman, I was high on him even before Tortorella made him realize you can’t get by on talent alone in the NHL, and I still think he is a good player. He has however had some wobble in his game this season, back to playing well again for a while now, but one wonders if it’s the early sign of decline. He’s also missed time with injury. He’s 33 at the start of next season and the only way I see him sign for the Oilers is a massive retirement contract which I think would be a bad idea. He’s got four kids and is a real family guy, I think he’s looking for an eastern team with as little travel as possible. I’m not even sure an overpay would sway him to come to Edmonton tbh. I don’t see him as an option.

Thanks for that SP.

Woodguy v2.0 March 28, 2019 - 5:16 pm

Georgexs: Here’s how I read your argument:

– “… a lot of 3rd pair Dmen look good vs Elites” because

1. OnTheFly shifts

2. Playing vs Elites with their best forwards

This is interesting. I don’t have your data but I did notice that NST had OTF Shifts/60. I can’t say anything about your second point but I can sort of test out the first with the data I have access to.

Your breakdown of frequency of faceoffs vs. Elite forwards largely matches NST’s OTF Shifts/60 with Sekera and Benning switching spots in my list.

name, OTF Shifts/60

Oscar Klefbom 38.71
Adam Larsson42.78
Darnell Nurse43.85
Kris Russell46.27
Caleb Jones48.13
Andrej Sekera55.18
Matthew Benning59.13

The correlation between 5v5 OTF Shifts/60 and 5v5 TOI/GP for defensemen who’ve played at least 20 games this season is -0.72. That’s pretty good.

It suggests the less the HC chooses to play a defenseman, the more likely the HC will choose to start his shifts on the fly and, to connect up to your thread, the less likely he’ll choose the defenseman for faceoffs.

To repeat, coaches prefer their 3rd pairs to start on the fly and prefer their first two pairs in faceoff situations. Cool.

The next part is: does starting more on the fly give some defensemen a systematic advantage in their counting metrics? Do defensemen with more OTF shifts/60 tend to have higher CF% or GF% because the puck is already in the other zone?

Here are the correlations between 5v5 OTF Shifts/60 and CF% and GF% for defensemen who’ve played at least 20 games in the past few seasons:

Season, Corr w/ CF%, Corr w/ GF%

18-19, -.19, -.19
17-18, -.19, -.16
16-17, -.10, -.20
15-16, -.19, -.26
14-15, -.06, -.16

The correlations are small but consistently negative. Which means defensemen with higher OTF shifts/60 have either the same CF% and GF% as their more faceoff oriented, higher TOI peers or their results are a wee bit worse.

Overall, the impression I get from this is that HC’s can shelter their 3rd pair defensemen but they also can’t shelter them enough. Eventually, 3rd pairs have to play and their results are largely in line with their roles.

Benning has done very well in his role. I don’t know whether that means he can assume a bigger role. You don’t know if you try. His numbers looked good last two seasons when he was playing more minutes. A kind of try, I guess.

I had no idea that NST had OTF data!!

That’s great!

Now that I can get my hands on it I’m going to play around quite a bit.

Thanks for the correlations as well.

Once puckiq is up and going and we have OTF I’ll run correlations in each bin

Its my posit that 3rd pairing Dmen get more OTF vs the tougher comp.

That’s why when running a correlation vs the whole sample the effect can wash out quite a bit.

That’s my guess and I hope to have the data to look at soon.

Thanks for the work and the info Georgesx.

Tesla's Hair March 28, 2019 - 5:15 pm

If you cant beat the OBC then join em.

My vote goes to the ambitious GM who promises to bring home the ex oilers for a hometown cup run and vows to take the Tka out of Tkachuk.

Hal
Pet
Dub
Mar
Ebs
Per
Arc
Bro
Str
Cog
Yak
And Any 1st or 2nd round draft picks we would have taken or not lost for PC, TMac

OriginalPouzar March 28, 2019 - 5:05 pm

SwedishPoster: I like Strålman, I was high on him even before Tortorella made him realize you can’t get by on talent alone in the NHL, and I still think he is a good player. He has however had some wobble in his game this season, back to playing well again for a while now, but one wonders if it’s the early sign of decline. He’s also missed time with injury. He’s 33 at the start of next season and the only way I see him sign for the Oilers is a massive retirement contract which I think would be a bad idea. He’s got four kids and is a real family guy, I think he’s looking for an eastern team with as little travel as possible. I’m not even sure an overpay would sway him to come to Edmonton tbh. I don’t see him as an option.

I’ve been advocating for Stralman as a two-year stop gap for 2 months now. Of course, there is almost no realistic chance of that happening.

OriginalPouzar March 28, 2019 - 5:01 pm

Lowetide: Oilers have no interest, NJD probably asked permission (or agent).

As I said, I would think the Oilers org would have zero interest in signing him, i just found it odd given the y have his rights. Didn’t know it was possible to sign an actual contract with another org, even an AHL ATO – would have thought we’d trade our rights (yes, trades can be made post-deadline) for “future considerations”.

OriginalPouzar March 28, 2019 - 4:53 pm

LadiesloveSmid: I’m 22 & live by downtown Calgary.

Think I will have to join the bandwagon too. Maybe see what it’s like to cheer for a team that’s competently run.

I’m 42 and live by downtown Calgary (Marda Loop).

Will actively cheer against the flames in the playoffs as I always do (almost as passionately that I cheer for the Oilers, which is some solid passion).

OriginalPouzar March 28, 2019 - 4:51 pm

Reminder: Guelph on SN360 in 10 minutes or so.

Oilers 2nd rated prospect d-man (with the highest overall ceiling) in action!

OriginalPouzar March 28, 2019 - 4:50 pm

PinkSocks: Draisatl-McDavid-Kassian
Benson-Nuge-Gagner
Khaira-Marody-Gamberdella
Lucic-Cave-Currie
Brodziak-Puljujarvi

Oil can’t go into next year with this lineup.They need substantial adds to the forwards and need a 2RD. All this lineup does is replace Rieder with Benson, Brodziak with Marody, and Chaisson with Gambardella, which may actually be worse.These is still zero scoring in the bottom 6 and RNH with a pure rookie and 30 point fringe NHLer in Gagner.

If Lucic, Brodziak, Cave, Gagner, Currie and Gambardella are all in the opening night lineup we may as well get ready for another sub 80 point season.

Drai – McD – Kass
new guy – RNH – new guy
Khaira – new guy – new guy
Benson – Marody – Gagner

Let Gagner mentor the two rookies.4 middle-6 forwards is a hell of a task for the new GM, but if playoffs are the goal, it’s the only way I see it possible.

There is “what we want” and there is “what is reasonably attained given the circumstances”.

I see some divergence between the two.

Reja March 28, 2019 - 4:40 pm

flyfish1168:
My sister has 4 season tickets to the phlegms. She keeps telling me all I have to do is wear the phlegm jersey and she will invite me to the game. I told her if you put conditions on them I’m not at all interested. I will never cheer for a team that phuckin team.

Playoffs haven’t even started and the Flamers are coming out of the closet already. Next you’ll hear what knowledgeable and unbiased analyst Hrudey, Burke and Button are as they brag up the flames every hit every non call. In between the bragging they’ll take there cheap shots every chance they can get while laughing inside at the Oilers and Edmonton.We need a Sather type back to defend us.

jp March 28, 2019 - 4:34 pm

Woodguy v2.0: I’d be really cautious about putting Benning up in 2nd pair.

I’m curious your thoughts on the Benning numbers I posted earlier. That he’s played just shy of half of his 5 on 5 minutes over the past 2 years with one of Klefbom, Nurse or Russell, and that those pairings have had a GF% of 56%.

I appreciate that overall he’s been protected from elites and that he’s been sheltered even in his minutes vs elites, but those results with Klef/Nurse/Russell are really good and in a >900 minute sample.

Do you think those weren’t top 4 minutes? Or that Benning was likely being protected even in the minutes with Klef/Nurse/Russell? Something else?

I’m having a hard time from those numbers concluding anything other than “Benning’s results have been really damn good when played in a top 4 role”.

For reference, the GF% WOWY for each from NST (with/without)
Klefbom 48.9 41.2
Nurse 66.7 49.8
Russell 60.0 48.2

OriginalPouzar March 28, 2019 - 4:29 pm

Material Elvis: Daniel Carr says, “I don’t think so OP”.

Again “in 2019” not the entire season.

OriginalPouzar March 28, 2019 - 4:28 pm

blackadder:
Really happy to see Benson succeeding in the AHL this year.Wondering if we see him make the Oilers before Yamamoto given the way their seasons have gone, although Yamamoto’s point totals are likely a little less because he spent most of his time on Bakersfield’s third line before Currie’s recall.

At this point, its fairly clear that Benson is ahead of Yamamoto, however, that makes sense.

22nd overall and, what, 32nd overall for Benson – their draft pedigree is not all that different and Benson is in his draft plus 3 and Yamamoto in his draft plus 2 – although both rookie pros.

Lets not forget, the egregious decision(s) to have Yamamoto in the NHL at the start of last year and for so much time this year, has hurt his development and he’s just now being re-set. Unfortunately he’s been banged up since he got sent down and hasn’t been able to gain any traction. He is VERY good at the AHL level, if only he could just play games.

He’ll get a full re-set as a Condor in October and, assuming he can stay healthy, it will be a big development year for him.

OriginalPouzar March 28, 2019 - 4:23 pm

Woodguy v2.0:

Grubauer is a good object lesson is the value of cap space. (ifyou’re smart enough to use it)

COL basically got their starter for the next 2 years and locked him down at $3.33MM all for a 2nd because they could afford to buy out Orpik on WSH’s behalf.

Is that better than Koskinen at 3 X $4.5M? I mean, we didn’t have to pay a 2nd rounder…… just the long distance charges for the calls with Kurri.

OriginalPouzar March 28, 2019 - 4:20 pm

Woodguy v2.0:
Benning’s success against elites (Dangerous Fenwick Percentage) suggests to me the Oilers may want to flip him to second pair.

I’d be really cautious about putting Benning up in 2nd pair.

I think the last few games here would be a good trial given that the results really don’t matter.

The time to start trials regarding the 2RD position and potential internal options was 6 weeks ago or so. Of course, there is zero indication that Hitch/Yawney had any intention of trying new things in the name of next season. So frustrating.

v4ance March 28, 2019 - 4:11 pm

Woodguy v2.0:
Georgexs,

This is a bit different. I don’t remember you taking an interest in parsing and projecting percentages before. You were more likely to link to an article like this:

I think the biggest thing is your assumptions about what I think and the fact that you haven’t read every single thing I’ve written.

Neither of those things diminish your opinion, it just is.You can’t possible know what I’m thinking, read everything I’ve written and know how some of my opinions change over time.

I’ve always had an interest in SH% as that seems to be a key to “how often corsis turn into goals”

I wrote a great big thing on NYR seeming to hire high SH% players almost exclusively and how that and Lundqvist made their “baseline” PDO around 1015 or so.Thought I published it, but I can’t find it anywhere.

The thing about SH% is that there is lots of noise/variance in the data, but you can still tease out who helps drive SH% and if someone does that then they help drive the Corsi/goal thing.

Of course passing, etc drives that too, but we don’t have that data.

I was following that conversation on NYR targeting high SH% bottom sixers on Twitter. I can’t remember who you were conversing with tho

Jethro Tull March 28, 2019 - 4:07 pm

Georgexs: “There is real skills involved in hockey (defending, passing, shooting, etc) that help drive each player’s results and these skills are not equally distributed so looking closer at individual players is required.”

Cool. We’re agreed shooting is a skill? Because there’s a lot of regression to the mean stuff out there based on players’ results that says shooting isn’t a skill.

Remind me to never go hunting with you.

This is close to saying “just get the puck on the net and good things happen”.

Jethro Tull March 28, 2019 - 3:56 pm

Georgexs,

This is awesome and interesting. It’s awetresting….

It says to me that you want your best “defenders” defending and “attackers” attacking. But the new NHL defending is about fluidity and puck transition – not from static face-off situations. This is exactly where you need to be playing your puck separators – your Jason Smiths – and your fast skating, good D on the fly to aid the game in its fluid stage.

My takeaway, should these numbers be proven? Get your good defensive defensemen, (Larsson, Nurse) on the static plays. Have your on-the-fly guys (Klef, Sekera) change once the puck is in sustained play.

Match-ups and 1,2,3 pairing could be dead…..

SwedishPoster March 28, 2019 - 3:48 pm

Woodguy v2.0: Thanks!

The ideal would be:

77-6
25-Stralman
2-83

That’s ideal because Stralman is good and being FA wouldn’t cost an asset to acquire

I like Strålman, I was high on him even before Tortorella made him realize you can’t get by on talent alone in the NHL, and I still think he is a good player. He has however had some wobble in his game this season, back to playing well again for a while now, but one wonders if it’s the early sign of decline. He’s also missed time with injury. He’s 33 at the start of next season and the only way I see him sign for the Oilers is a massive retirement contract which I think would be a bad idea. He’s got four kids and is a real family guy, I think he’s looking for an eastern team with as little travel as possible. I’m not even sure an overpay would sway him to come to Edmonton tbh. I don’t see him as an option.

Alpine March 28, 2019 - 3:37 pm

LadiesloveSmid,

He probably is. It’s a one season risk either way.

Though, Marleau has 12 ES goals this year, and had 22 and 19 the two years prior. Gagner usually gets less than 10.

flyfish1168 March 28, 2019 - 3:28 pm

My sister has 4 season tickets to the phlegms. She keeps telling me all I have to do is wear the phlegm jersey and she will invite me to the game. I told her if you put conditions on them I’m not at all interested. I will never cheer for a team that phuckin team.

LadiesloveSmid March 28, 2019 - 3:28 pm

Marleau is done.

Wouldn’t touch him with a 10 foot pole.

Alpine March 28, 2019 - 3:26 pm

godot10:
If Patrick Marleau were willing to waive his no-move clause to come to Edmonton, would you be willing to trade Gagner and Manning to Toronto for him.Toronto can save $3 million in cap room burying Gagner and Manning in the minors vs. having Marleau on the roster.I’m viewing this as a pure cap move from Toronto’s persepective.

i.e. Would you rather have Marleau at $2 million dollar greater cap hit than Gagner (with Manning buried).

Yeah I might do that. Marleau’s probably gonna be close to top six quality for one more season. Gagner’s probably middle six quality, maybe closer to a third liner next season.

Though Gagner’s underlying numbers look decent through this season so I don’t have much an issue keeping him either.

Woodguy v2.0 March 28, 2019 - 3:15 pm

Psyche:
Woodguy v2.0,

Woodguy,

Phenomenal info! Thanks for sharing it. You deserve an PhD for all the research.

Who are your top 6 d-men for the Oilers next season? (Based on the current group under contract and attainable targets outside the organization.)

Thanks again!

Thanks!

The ideal would be:

77-6
25-Stralman
2-83

That’s ideal because Stralman is good and being FA wouldn’t cost an asset to acquire

Cassandra March 28, 2019 - 3:03 pm

OriginalPouzar:
Gregor reporting that he spoke with Chiasson who confirmed there still have not been any negotiations with the team on another contract.Sounds like Chiasson really wants to stay and is a bit disapointed.

When I read through Chiasson’s quotes (at OilersNation), it kind of seemed to me that he knows where his production got to this year and I think he will be more expensive to sign than I, personally, would be willing to pay.

I don’t want to go higher than $1.5M but could stretch that to $1.75M – I think he’ll want over $2M and I walk, actually, I run.

Chiasson’s pts/60 at 5v5 is only marginally better than replacement. His points are powerplay points which, when you play his role, are largely a function of opportunity. I wouldn’t pay anything for them.

It makes no sense to evaluate (and hence pay) for per season production. You aren’t buying 20 goals a season. So don’t pay for it.

I would pay Chiasson 1 x 1M. Maybe stretch it to 1.25 M, otherwise you might as well get an AHL top scorer at league minimum. They are almost as likely to give you the same production the next year if given the opportunity.

Alpine March 28, 2019 - 3:03 pm

Jaxon,

But Hitch clearly trusts Russell way more than Benning. Look at that 18 minutes of ES ice time a game for Russell. That’s way too much for what he is especially when Benning has showed he can handle more than 13 minutes.

McLellan had them way closer in ice time last year. His D usage made sense.

Again, the Oilers are on the outside looking in. Their top four probably isn’t good enough to play as much as they are and it’s not even something every team needs to do. So we should probably question whether overplaying those guys is a good idea. Klefbom has been back for a month so no need to be playing Nurse/Larsson too much either.

Also Hitch played Jones just under 20 total minutes a game. So it’s not like Hitch didn’t trust him either. He played him as top four D for over 15 games.

hunter1909 March 28, 2019 - 2:57 pm

OriginalPouzar:
Gregor reporting that he spoke with Chiasson who confirmed there still have not been any negotiations with the team on another contract.Sounds like Chiasson really wants to stay and is a bit disapointed.

When I read through Chiasson’s quotes (at OilersNation), it kind of seemed to me that he knows where his production got to this year and I think he will be more expensive to sign than I, personally, would be willing to pay.

I don’t want to go higher than $1.5M but could stretch that to $1.75M – I think he’ll want over $2M and I walk, actually, I run.

Smart GM’s neither hand out NMC’s or overpay for any players save the superstars like McDavid/Draisaitl and if bottom 6ers who’ve played for this abortion of an NHL team this season think they’re getting a penny more than last year then to quote a certain Clint Eastwood movie it’s “Goodbye Charlie”.

Or else, hand out more money now and then cry like a fool later when there isn’t anything left to pay Nurse, for example.

Since modern players wear their tender hearts on their sleeves, while their agents talk like market traders about them it’s just ridiculous unless the GM understands human nature, like Glen Sather did. And then acts accordingly to benefit the team.

Jaxon March 28, 2019 - 2:47 pm

Alpine:
More teams that have their top D playing less than ours: Tampa, NY Islanders, Montreal.

– Hedman and McDonagh play 17:30 and 18:08 respectively at ES. Stralman is playing 17:23 and Cernak/Sergachev play above 16 mins each.

– Petry and Weber play 18:18 and 17:55 respectively at evens. Their next four D all play over 16 mins at ES, and a couple more play over 15.

– Pulock and Leddy play 18:40 and 18:23 each. They have five more D averaging over 16 mins at evens.

Winnipeg is another team with a similar ice time distribution and they have only Byfuglien playing over 19 mins. Trouba is at 18:30 and Morrissey is under 18. Myers, Beaulieu, and Chiarot are all over 16 mins.

______________________________

Here’s the Oilers:

Nurse, Klef, and Larsson are all over 19:30 at ES. Russell’s at 18:11. Kris Russell would be a top pairing D at ES on almost all of the above teams. Why? I know there were injuries but Winnipeg had injuries too.

Jones got 18 mins at ES as well when he was called up. Benning is at 13 mins this year when he played just under 16 mins last year with reasonable results.

I know Sek is recovering so they can’t overplay him. But why play the top four that much? It just burns them out. There were injuries last season too but McLellan kept Russell under 17 and Klefbom under 18. Nurse and Larsson are getting Norris level minutes at ES for the second year in a row and this season they’re struggling with goals against.

Just confusing from deployment from Hitch.

Because the coaches (MacLellan & Hitchcock), rightfully so, don’t trust, the Oilers #4,#5,#6D starting a bit with Russell, and then the drop off to Benning, Seekers, Jones, Gravel, Manning, Wideman, Garrison, Petrovic makes for coaches wanting to limit their minutes. To limit 4,5,6 minutes you have to increase the 1,2,3 minutes.

OriginalPouzar March 28, 2019 - 2:44 pm

Gregor reporting that he spoke with Chiasson who confirmed there still have not been any negotiations with the team on another contract. Sounds like Chiasson really wants to stay and is a bit disapointed.

When I read through Chiasson’s quotes (at OilersNation), it kind of seemed to me that he knows where his production got to this year and I think he will be more expensive to sign than I, personally, would be willing to pay.

I don’t want to go higher than $1.5M but could stretch that to $1.75M – I think he’ll want over $2M and I walk, actually, I run.

Lowetide March 28, 2019 - 2:39 pm

OriginalPouzar:
JD Dudek signed an AHL ATO with Binghamton.

Now, I have zero concern as I don’t imagine the Oilers have plans to sign him, however, how does this work given the Oilers have his rights (Maroon trade)?

Oilers have no interest, NJD probably asked permission (or agent).

Professor Q March 28, 2019 - 2:36 pm

hunter1909: Funny but Calgary’s success doesn’t bother me at all right now. Forgetting for a moment the Katz Wack Oilers of the past decade,the Flames have high character players like Monahan … have drafted a good player or two one of who is a Lucic type named Brady who will serve them the best years of his career unlike our head case, all the while making astute trades like dumping Mommy’s Boy Dougie Hamilton for outstanding returns.

I don’t expect them to win the cup. So it’s moot. Who knows, they meet Tampa in the finals and get curb stomped, ha ha.

Kicking motion!

Lowetide March 28, 2019 - 2:36 pm

doritogrande:
LW Jean Francois Jacques (05-06 Hamilton Bulldogs) 65gp, 24-20-44 .677ppg Jacques had a helluva pro debut and his size and speed made him a promising prospect. He lost a lot of momentum due to back injuries and may have lacked ‘hockey sense’. He is most famous for not getting a point as an NHL rookie in 2006-07 (in 37 games).

You should know that your famous call (JFJ gets a Stat!!) has jumped the shark. I now use it to relate to the Bombers useless highly drafted Canadian receivers of years past, albeit in a more mocking tone. Jade Etienne gets a Stat!, as it were.

Lol. Those were some times.

pts2pndr March 28, 2019 - 2:32 pm

giddy: My girlfriend is moving to Calgary for a job in the next few weeks. Don’t tell a soul but I may become a Flames fan on the weekends when I’m down there if they start going deep in the ‘yoffs (soak up that Red Mile fun)

That is a lot like a song that says when your not with the one you love, love the one your with. Thats not me but I put a high premium on loyalty! It’s a fine line,but you can cheer for a team without being a fan of the team. My true loyalty will always be to the Oilers.

Darth Tu March 28, 2019 - 2:14 pm

hunter1909: Funny but Calgary’s success doesn’t bother me at all right now. Forgetting for a moment the Katz Wack Oilers of the past decade,the Flames have high character players like Monahan … have drafted a good player or two one of who is a Lucic type named Brady who will serve them the best years of his career unlike our head case, all the while making astute trades like dumping Mommy’s Boy Dougie Hamilton for outstanding returns.

I don’t expect them to win the cup. So it’s moot. Who knows, they meet Tampa in the finals and get curb stomped, ha ha.

They do have that epic Lanny style mustache on the go too. I can’t say I’m against that. However, I want to see them booted out in the first round, I want a full on embarrassment of Calgary.

If a Canadian team that isn’t the Oilers is winning the Cup, Jets or Habs for me. No one else.

LadiesloveSmid March 28, 2019 - 2:12 pm

giddy: I’m not much older than you are. Maybe we’ll have to grab beers and together inwardly hope for a big Flames loss.

Really a win either way. Flames get blown out or stretch of fun down 17th ave for a few weeks.

hunter1909 March 28, 2019 - 2:07 pm

Reja: Islander fans don’t cheer for the Rangers. Leafs for the Habs. Flyers for the Bruins etc this issacrilegious. Maybe your reverse psychology will work lol. You do know that the Flames stole another city’s team in the middle of the night or maybe it was the middle of the day anyway I betcha there’s more Oiler fans in Atlanta then Calgary fans.

Funny but Calgary’s success doesn’t bother me at all right now. Forgetting for a moment the Katz Wack Oilers of the past decade, the Flames have high character players like Monahan … have drafted a good player or two one of who is a Lucic type named Brady who will serve them the best years of his career unlike our head case, all the while making astute trades like dumping Mommy’s Boy Dougie Hamilton for outstanding returns.

I don’t expect them to win the cup. So it’s moot. Who knows, they meet Tampa in the finals and get curb stomped, ha ha.

Psyche March 28, 2019 - 2:04 pm

Woodguy v2.0,

Woodguy,

Phenomenal info! Thanks for sharing it. You deserve an PhD for all the research.

Who are your top 6 d-men for the Oilers next season? (Based on the current group under contract and attainable targets outside the organization.)

Thanks again!

Katz_kat March 28, 2019 - 2:03 pm

DBO:
Draisatl-McDavid-Kassian
Benson-Nuge-Gagner
Khaira-Marody-Gamberdella
Lucic-Cave-Currie
Brodziak-Puljujarvi

That is only 2 player 21 or under. So not youth heavy. And leaves room for Puljujarvi to step in for the 2 or 3 RW if he wins the job and allows Yamamoto and others to play big minutes in minors. I am also very OK iwth Marody being replaced with a real 3 C (even Gagner), but at 22, and point per game in the minors he is ready for NHL work.

Personally, I don’t see the reasoning behind keeping Puljujarvi down the lineup unless you mean to torment the boy some more. I’d like to see this instead

Drai – McD – Kassian
Khaira – RNH – Puljujarvi
Benson – Marody – Gagner/Chiasson
Lucic – Cave – Currie/Gambo

Assuming we’re not able to acquire a top 6 fwd outside of the organization. Khaira-RNH-Puljujarvi looked good for a couple of stretches there and you have to give Puljujarvi the opportunity at some point here to run with it. Give him a quarter of the season with consistent quality linemates and if he doesn’t finally excel, well that would probably be all she wrote. In the meantime you keep the fantastic duo of Benson-Marody together who apparently are magic together and give them a veteran to help them teach them the ropes in a sheltered role.

The real wild card is Khaira. He has shown so well, but hasn’t put together the points to qualify him as more than a bottom 6. He seems to have the skill, I hope he can finally put it together for a solid season next year. If he stepped up and the third line is capable of scoring 40-50 goals together, that would be a vast improvement upon what we’ve seen so far.

Reja March 28, 2019 - 2:00 pm

giddy: Don’t worry, I’ll always be cheering in the back of my mind for them to get swept first thing, and be able to bask in the collective disappointment. After this long of being an Oiler fan, I just about need disappointment injected directly to my veins otherwise I get the shakes.

Islander fans don’t cheer for the Rangers. Leafs for the Habs. Flyers for the Bruins etc this is sacrilegious. Maybe your reverse psychology will work lol. You do know that the Flames stole another city’s team in the middle of the night or maybe it was the middle of the day anyway I betcha there’s more Oiler fans in Atlanta then Calgary fans.

Decidedly Skeptical Fan March 28, 2019 - 1:54 pm

Reja: Good for you. Have Fun prancingaround the green mile or whatever the hell its called in your Flames jersey.Me I hope they get the living shit kicked out of them in 4 Straight.

Me too. And here’s hoping the ass whipping carries over deep into next year as well.

Decidedly Skeptical Fan March 28, 2019 - 1:51 pm

DBO:
Draisatl-McDavid-Kassian
Benson-Nuge-Gagner
Khaira-Marody-Gamberdella
Lucic-Cave-Currie
Brodziak-Puljujarvi

That is only 2 player 21 or under. So not youth heavy. And leaves room for Puljujarvi to step in for the 2 or 3 RW if he wins the job and allows Yamamoto and others to play big minutes in minors. I am also very OK iwth Marody being replaced with a real 3 C (even Gagner), but at 22, and point per game in the minors he is ready for NHL work.

I would love to see an Oiler 3rd line of Benson-Marody-Gamberdella next year. It might not survive but it sure would be nice to see them get a chance together for at least 2 or 3 weeks (say 10 games).

Kinger_Oil.redux March 28, 2019 - 1:43 pm

PinkSocks: Draisatl-McDavid-Kassian

Drai – McD – Kass
new guy – RNH – new guy
Khaira – new guy – new guy
Benson – Marody – Gagner

– Not sure if the 17 games with Sek and 6-D are a mirage, and the 111 point pace is not anywhere near what we are next year, but I still go with base 3C (and load ’em up if need be)

– I be like

newguy-McD-Kassian
new-guy-Drai-Chiasson
Kharia-RNH-Pool (they were more than good when together)
AHL-tweener/Lucic-Cave-Gagner

– You make McD, Drai and RNH work with wingers: and Kailer, Benson, Marody: they fight to try and supplant Kassian/Chiasson/AHL-tweener and the new guy LW’s. Maybe Lucic “recovers”: LOL!

On D, unless you get a material upgrade by trading Russel + Benning + propsect like

Klef-Larsson
Nurse-Paryko
Sek-Jones (or is it Jones-Sek?)

– You don’t have more than 1 of Jones, Bouchard, Laggs, Persson etc on opening day roster

giddy March 28, 2019 - 1:24 pm

LadiesloveSmid: I’m 22 & live by downtown Calgary.

Think I will have to join the bandwagon too. Maybe see what it’s like to cheer for a team that’s competently run.

I’m not much older than you are. Maybe we’ll have to grab beers and together inwardly hope for a big Flames loss.

giddy March 28, 2019 - 1:22 pm

Reja: Good for you. Have Fun prancingaround the green mile or whatever the hell its called in your Flames jersey.Me I hope they get the living shit kicked out of them in 4 Straight.

Don’t worry, I’ll always be cheering in the back of my mind for them to get swept first thing, and be able to bask in the collective disappointment. After this long of being an Oiler fan, I just about need disappointment injected directly to my veins otherwise I get the shakes.

Woodguy v2.0 March 28, 2019 - 1:19 pm

Jethro Tull: Thanks, I think this frames it perfectly. I’m still not sure that Icings/Offsides wash out as much as we’d like.But in a broad stroke, we can at least say “player x doesn’t only eat minutes, he eats them against the best in the toughest situations.”

You’re right, we don’t have enough info yet, but I might be able to aggregate some to get a “30,000ft” view when puckiq.com is done.

That said, here’s the Oiler Dmen FO/60 for all 5v5 TOI this year:

name FO/60
Oscar Klefbom 62.9
Adam Larsson 61.7
Darnell Nurse 56.3
Caleb Jones 55.6
Kris Russell 54.8
Matthew Benning 54.5
Andrej Sekera 51.3

The spread is much more narrow, especially after 77-6.

That might speak to 77-6 getting sent out for match ups more than the rest.

Could be variance, but I think there is some signal there.

who March 28, 2019 - 1:14 pm

Marchant_Rox:
Andy Dufresne,

I say trade him only because, if Benning truly is topping out as a 3RD – and that’s great; those guys play real minutes too! – then let’s use that slot to break in some of our younger guys. Especially when they can play opposite Sekara who will teach them the mysterious ways of keeping the puck out of your net in the NHL. And because I believe that we have a better chance of finding someone who still believes that Benning CAN be a 2RD than we have of finding someone who will take Russell off our hands.

Exactly

LadiesloveSmid March 28, 2019 - 1:07 pm

giddy: My girlfriend is moving to Calgary for a job in the next few weeks. Don’t tell a soul but I may become a Flames fan on the weekends when I’m down there if they start going deep in the ‘yoffs (soak up that Red Mile fun)

I’m 22 & live by downtown Calgary.

Think I will have to join the bandwagon too. Maybe see what it’s like to cheer for a team that’s competently run.

Woodguy v2.0 March 28, 2019 - 1:04 pm

leadfarmer:
Woodguy v2.0,

But you didnt like the AVS in the offseason

Still don’t like them much.

I think I had them 9th or 10th in WC, so I’m not too far off.

With their point total they should be 9th or 10th. 🙂

They are a one line team, (MacKinnon On 59.6% GF, MacKinnon Off 45.3%) but they have a goalie who is hot right now.

Hot goalies can trump all in the playoffs.

Reja March 28, 2019 - 12:55 pm

giddy: My girlfriend is moving to Calgary for a job in the next few weeks. Don’t tell a soul but I may become a Flames fan on the weekends when I’m down there if they start going deep in the ‘yoffs (soak up that Red Mile fun)

Good for you. Have Fun prancing around the green mile or whatever the hell its called in your Flames jersey.Me I hope they get the living shit kicked out of them in 4 Straight.

Reja March 28, 2019 - 12:48 pm

Andy Dufresne:
I’ll take “Dirty Little Secret” for 200 Alex.

I had a couple of Flatliners and feel like getting something off my conscience.

I used to HATE the Calgary Flames. Neil(f#ckin) Sheehy, Tim Hunter, Joel Otto, Jim Peplinski, Hock a Loggie.

But 30 years have past and with some EMDR therapy I have gotten over it.SO

Now, once the Oilers are eliminated from contention ( Thanksgiving, Rememberance Day, Christmas, or whatever), I cheer based on the following Algorithm.I want the Cup back in Canada.

Team Closest to Edmonton Geographically > Lieing between the Rockie Mountains and the Eastern border of Manitoba. >Then teams from the Nations Capital > Then Canadian teams west of the Rockies >Then Teams from Quebec and the Maritimes > Then American Teams who have the least amount of Stanley Cups.

Cup Victories:Montreal (24), Toronto (13), Detroit (11), Boston (6), Chicago (6), Pittsburgh (5), NYR (4), NYI (4), New Jersey (3), Philidelphia (2), Los Angeles (2).)

Right now we are in a tie for 6th all time with Pittsburgh for most Stanley Cups by one team.

SO…..Lets Go Flames! Lets Go Jets!

Oh and not Dallas. NEVER Dallas.

Good for you. That’s not a little secret it’s a full blown confession. I cheer for anybody playing the Flames 10 fold,Leafs, Nucks, Sens, Habs,Jets. Next team to win a cup out of Kanada is Oilers.

leadfarmer March 28, 2019 - 12:39 pm

The correct answer to who should play 2RHD between Benning and Russell is neither.
Accept Benning is what he is and keep him for 3 RHD spot for next year
Accept Russell is what he is and dump him

leadfarmer March 28, 2019 - 12:36 pm

Woodguy v2.0,

But you didnt like the AVS in the offseason

Chelios is a Dinosaur March 28, 2019 - 12:35 pm

Drai – McD – Kass
new guy – RNH – new guy

If those two new guys are bonafide, I think the bottom six can hang on and the D won’t need to be touched for next year.

All on on the top 6.

Jethro Tull March 28, 2019 - 12:35 pm

Woodguy v2.0: I think all the non-coach driven face off locations wash out after a while and we also know that most zone start locations are driven by the players (good ones end up in the ozone more)

All the data I’m showing in this thread is “TOI vs Elite Forwards”

So for context you can say:

“Klefbom plays the highest percentage of his TOI vs Elites among Oiler Dmen as well as being on the ice for the most faceoffs/60 vs Elite.From the FO/60 number we can infer that he gets the least amount of “On The Fly” shifts which are very beneficial to the player’s results.

Of the ~70 FO/60 that Klefbom sees vs Elites, 45% of themin the ozone and 55% in the dzone when its not a neutral zone face off”

Thanks, I think this frames it perfectly. I’m still not sure that Icings/Offsides wash out as much as we’d like. But in a broad stroke, we can at least say “player x doesn’t only eat minutes, he eats them against the best in the toughest situations.”

Reja March 28, 2019 - 12:34 pm

Columbus playoffs are not have a lot of decisions to make this offseason. What would it take to get Josh Anderson?

flyfish1168 March 28, 2019 - 12:32 pm

Woodguy v2.0: CGY will be the first seed so they’ll see the 2nd wildcard.

Right now COL is burning up the track because Grubauer (who I desperately wanted for EDM) is ripping it up.

Grubauer in March all situations:
10gp
.955 SV% (!!!)

If Grubauer is hot and CGY starts Smith I can see an upset there.

Goalies are almost everything in the playoffs.

Also,

Grubauer is a good object lesson is the value of cap space. (ifyou’re smart enough to use it)

COL basically got their starter for the next 2 years and locked him down at $3.33MM all for a 2nd because they could afford to buy out Orpik on WSH’s behalf.

If you feel they have just as good a chance to oust the phlegms in the 1st round I’m ok with the Aves too. I would love to share the golf course with them.

PinkSocks March 28, 2019 - 12:09 pm

DBO:
Draisatl-McDavid-Kassian
Benson-Nuge-Gagner
Khaira-Marody-Gamberdella
Lucic-Cave-Currie
Brodziak-Puljujarvi

That is only 2 player 21 or under. So not youth heavy. And leaves room for Puljujarvi to step in for the 2 or 3 RW if he wins the job and allows Yamamoto and others to play big minutes in minors. I am also very OK iwth Marody being replaced with a real 3 C (even Gagner), but at 22, and point per game in the minors he is ready for NHL work.

Draisatl-McDavid-Kassian
Benson-Nuge-Gagner
Khaira-Marody-Gamberdella
Lucic-Cave-Currie
Brodziak-Puljujarvi

Oil can’t go into next year with this lineup. They need substantial adds to the forwards and need a 2RD. All this lineup does is replace Rieder with Benson, Brodziak with Marody, and Chaisson with Gambardella, which may actually be worse. These is still zero scoring in the bottom 6 and RNH with a pure rookie and 30 point fringe NHLer in Gagner.

If Lucic, Brodziak, Cave, Gagner, Currie and Gambardella are all in the opening night lineup we may as well get ready for another sub 80 point season.

Drai – McD – Kass
new guy – RNH – new guy
Khaira – new guy – new guy
Benson – Marody – Gagner

Let Gagner mentor the two rookies. 4 middle-6 forwards is a hell of a task for the new GM, but if playoffs are the goal, it’s the only way I see it possible.

Johnny skid March 28, 2019 - 12:07 pm

Andy Dufresne:
I’ll take “Dirty Little Secret” for 200 Alex.

I had a couple of Flatliners and feel like getting something off my conscience.

I used to HATE the Calgary Flames. Neil(f#ckin) Sheehy, Tim Hunter, Joel Otto, Jim Peplinski, Hock a Loggie.

But 30 years have past and with some EMDR therapy I have gotten over it.SO

Now, once the Oilers are eliminated from contention ( Thanksgiving, Rememberance Day, Christmas, or whatever), I cheer based on the following Algorithm.I want the Cup back in Canada.

Team Closest to Edmonton Geographically > Lieing between the Rockie Mountains and the Eastern border of Manitoba. >Then teams from the Nations Capital > Then Canadian teams west of the Rockies >Then Teams from Quebec and the Maritimes > Then American Teams who have the least amount of Stanley Cups.

Cup Victories:Montreal (24), Toronto (13), Detroit (11), Boston (6), Chicago (6), Pittsburgh (5), NYR (4), NYI (4), New Jersey (3), Philidelphia (2), Los Angeles (2).)

Right now we are in a tie for 6th all time with Pittsburgh for most Stanley Cups by one team.

SO…..Lets Go Flames! Lets Go Jets!

Oh and not Dallas. NEVER Dallas.

I want the old Andy back!

doritogrande March 28, 2019 - 12:01 pm

LW Jean Francois Jacques (05-06 Hamilton Bulldogs) 65gp, 24-20-44 .677ppg Jacques had a helluva pro debut and his size and speed made him a promising prospect. He lost a lot of momentum due to back injuries and may have lacked ‘hockey sense’. He is most famous for not getting a point as an NHL rookie in 2006-07 (in 37 games).

You should know that your famous call (JFJ gets a Stat!!) has jumped the shark. I now use it to relate to the Bombers useless highly drafted Canadian receivers of years past, albeit in a more mocking tone. Jade Etienne gets a Stat!, as it were.

Woodguy v2.0 March 28, 2019 - 11:59 am

bendelson:
Hey gang!
Fair warning to all gamblers:my lovely wife and I will be attending the next two home games – yes, scheduled date nights.We had a big break between games and are now ready to return to the scene of the crime… Will the better half get to enjoy a home victory this season??

Fucking Bendelson.

Alpine March 28, 2019 - 11:51 am

More teams that have their top D playing less than ours: Tampa, NY Islanders, Montreal.

– Hedman and McDonagh play 17:30 and 18:08 respectively at ES. Stralman is playing 17:23 and Cernak/Sergachev play above 16 mins each.

– Petry and Weber play 18:18 and 17:55 respectively at evens. Their next four D all play over 16 mins at ES, and a couple more play over 15.

– Pulock and Leddy play 18:40 and 18:23 each. They have five more D averaging over 16 mins at evens.

Winnipeg is another team with a similar ice time distribution and they have only Byfuglien playing over 19 mins. Trouba is at 18:30 and Morrissey is under 18. Myers, Beaulieu, and Chiarot are all over 16 mins.

______________________________

Here’s the Oilers:

Nurse, Klef, and Larsson are all over 19:30 at ES. Russell’s at 18:11. Kris Russell would be a top pairing D at ES on almost all of the above teams. Why? I know there were injuries but Winnipeg had injuries too.

Jones got 18 mins at ES as well when he was called up. Benning is at 13 mins this year when he played just under 16 mins last year with reasonable results.

I know Sek is recovering so they can’t overplay him. But why play the top four that much? It just burns them out. There were injuries last season too but McLellan kept Russell under 17 and Klefbom under 18. Nurse and Larsson are getting Norris level minutes at ES for the second year in a row and this season they’re struggling with goals against.

Just confusing from deployment from Hitch.

jtblack March 28, 2019 - 11:47 am

Woodguy v2.0:
Western Conference Playoff Standings using Points Percentage shown as points over/under fake Bettman .500

Pacific
CGY 24
SJS 19
VGK 13

Central
WPG 18
NSH 15
STL 14

Wildcard
DAL 9
COL 6

Out of playoffs
ARI 4
MIN 2
CHI 0
EDM 0
VAN -3
ANA -4
LAK -12

Wildcard Relevant Games today:

DAL at EDM (DAL -115)

Oh how that Loss to New Jersey stings. Would be 4 out. oh well?

So GLad Oilers are pkaying well and making a push.

Love this team.

#AddEhlers

OriginalPouzar March 28, 2019 - 11:35 am

Darth Tu: I think you’ve previously said that Marody might work on the wing in the NHL, I’m all for this.He clearly has the hockey brain and the skills, footspeed is a little slow, but if we can get a decent center in between Marody and Benson (when he’s ready to step up to the NHL), we could be onto a productive 3rd line.

I’ve liked Cave’s effort and he gets himself into decent shooting lanes, I’d be happy with him bumping to 4th line center.Is it too much rookie to slot Currie and Gambardella in there too?Of course this leads to the “what do we do with Looch” issue.Maybe have him on the 4th line and flip Currie/Gambardella in and out as needed? Lot of money to be playing 4th line, but I guess that’s where we are with Looch now.

Call me an optimist but I’m starting to come around onhow far away with the bottom six actually is.

Summer time, priority has to be bringing in a 2RD.Benning has good numbers, but they’re in that sheltered role.I say let him play as the 3RD to start the season.

I’m not sure that both Marody and Benson will start the year in the NHL – my guess would be one of them as, if we include Joe G.., that is alot of rookie.

Its tough to really make an informed opinion on which of this cluster might be on the team in October and where in the lineup as it is contingent on what happens in the off-season.

Of course, without dispositions, there isn’t alot of spending money but, at the same time, we know they won’t “do nothing” – it may be similar type acquisitions as last season (i.e Brodz and Rieder) with the hope they work out better, but it will be something.

I think at least two of Currie, Joe G., Marody, Benson will start in the AHL and, frankly, I don’t think Currie is a legit NHL player – tweener at best if we are looking to compete.

OriginalPouzar March 28, 2019 - 11:31 am

Pescador: Ahl.com has Benson 14th in league scoring & second in rookie pts.
You have posted this several times, where’s the disconnect?

In the calendar year.

Since January 1, he has accumulated the 2nd most points in the AHL.

giddy March 28, 2019 - 11:28 am

Andy Dufresne:
I’ll take “Dirty Little Secret” for 200 Alex.

I had a couple of Flatliners and feel like getting something off my conscience.

I used to HATE the Calgary Flames. Neil(f#ckin) Sheehy, Tim Hunter, Joel Otto, Jim Peplinski, Hock a Loggie.

But 30 years have past and with some EMDR therapy I have gotten over it.SO

Now, once the Oilers are eliminated from contention ( Thanksgiving, Rememberance Day, Christmas, or whatever), I cheer based on the following Algorithm.I want the Cup back in Canada.

Team Closest to Edmonton Geographically > Lieing between the Rockie Mountains and the Eastern border of Manitoba. >Then teams from the Nations Capital > Then Canadian teams west of the Rockies >Then Teams from Quebec and the Maritimes > Then American Teams who have the least amount of Stanley Cups.

Cup Victories:Montreal (24), Toronto (13), Detroit (11), Boston (6), Chicago (6), Pittsburgh (5), NYR (4), NYI (4), New Jersey (3), Philidelphia (2), Los Angeles (2).)

Right now we are in a tie for 6th all time with Pittsburgh for most Stanley Cups by one team.

SO…..Lets Go Flames! Lets Go Jets!

Oh and not Dallas. NEVER Dallas.

My girlfriend is moving to Calgary for a job in the next few weeks. Don’t tell a soul but I may become a Flames fan on the weekends when I’m down there if they start going deep in the ‘yoffs (soak up that Red Mile fun)

jtblack March 28, 2019 - 11:27 am

OriginalPouzar:
Two years in a row the organization has gone in to the season hopeful that Matt Benning could take the step and grab the 2RD role.Two years in a row Matt Benning hasn’t been able to make it happen, at least by the eye test.

With that said, while not young, Benning is still a developing d-man given pro experience and he’s playing the best hockey of his career.

The time to experiment with that 2RD spot is now – well, it was 6 weeks ago, however, Hitch/Yawney owe it to the 2019/20 edition of the Oilers to give some other players than Russell some looks there?

Will we see it?I wouldn’t hold my breath.

+1. Benning doesnt skate well enough to be an effective 2D IMO.

Oilers are tryng to build a Cup Contender Dont see a cup contender with Benning or Russell on 2nd pair

bendelson March 28, 2019 - 11:27 am

Hey gang!
Fair warning to all gamblers: my lovely wife and I will be attending the next two home games – yes, scheduled date nights. We had a big break between games and are now ready to return to the scene of the crime… Will the better half get to enjoy a home victory this season??

DBO March 28, 2019 - 11:23 am

Draisatl-McDavid-Kassian
Benson-Nuge-Gagner
Khaira-Marody-Gamberdella
Lucic-Cave-Currie
Brodziak-Puljujarvi

That is only 2 player 21 or under. So not youth heavy. And leaves room for Puljujarvi to step in for the 2 or 3 RW if he wins the job and allows Yamamoto and others to play big minutes in minors. I am also very OK iwth Marody being replaced with a real 3 C (even Gagner), but at 22, and point per game in the minors he is ready for NHL work.

Kinger_Oil.redux March 28, 2019 - 11:19 am

russ99:
Oil2Oilers,

I’m the opposite. Bear is a value contract…

Rightys are harder to find so let’s not dump what could be a good one showing pretty well in the AHL

Also we have Joel Persson (31pts/50GP in a first pairing role in the SEL) coming over next year…

– Read an awesome quote today talking about the Jays, and how they failed a few times when they were set up with a bunch of promising prospects, highly rated farm, etc:

“If you rely too much on kids,” he said, “they’ll break your heart.”

– This is what the Oil do, and fans buy what they sell: project too much from too many kids

Woodguy v2.0 March 28, 2019 - 11:07 am

Andy Dufresne:
Can anyone tell me, is Dennis King the new leader of the P.E.I. Progressive Conservative Party, the same Dennis King that used to do spots on the Lowetide radio show?

It is not.

Woodguy v2.0 March 28, 2019 - 11:07 am

Marchant_Rox:
Woodguy v2.0,

You don’t give yourself enough credit: I remember posts from you from long ago that used EVTOI for defensemen and noted that, even though WE thought some of these guys were terrible, their coaches kept throwing them over the boards. So the coach, who knew the players best, trusted them: what did the coaches know (or see) that we did not?

No that we need to run out and trade for every minutes-eating d-man, but how can we quantify what the coaches were obviously seeing?

Thanks MR. I appreciate that.

russ99 March 28, 2019 - 11:06 am

Oil2Oilers,

I’m the opposite. Bear is a value contract and with a veteran partner, could be better than Benning in many ways this time next year, and we could flip Benning’s inflated RFA contract for a decent asset.

Rightys are harder to find so let’s not dump what could be a good one showing pretty well in the AHL before we know what he is.

We pretty much know what Benning is right now.

Also we have Joel Persson (31pts/50GP in a first pairing role in the SEL) coming over next year, and he’s also a righty.

Andy Dufresne March 28, 2019 - 11:06 am

Woodguy v2.0:
Georgexs,

The correlation was 0.25. A linear model with the same predictors gives a correlation of 0.26. So there is some information there, just not a lot. The variance explained is under 7%. The predictive power of prior SH% on future SH% is very, very low, lots of regression to the mean.


This isn’t unexpected because the forwards in this sample would be established NHL players based on the fact they played 4 consecutive seasons. As a group, they’d tend to be closer in skill than the general population of forwards playing in any given season. This is what leads to the, oh look, SH% regresses to the mean articles like Hawerchuk’s.

I’m of the opinion that Team Mates are a key factor in SH% and if you cannot control for that finding correlations for the whole population will tell a bit, but not near enough.

Over the years I’ve started to look at the correlations and regressions of the whole player population as more of a starting point than an end point.

There is real skills involved in hockey (defending, passing, shooting, etc) that help drive each player’s results and these skills are not equally distributed so looking closer at individual players is required.

I think about it his way:

Regressions and correlations of the whole population of players is like a Provincial Map.You get the 30,000ft view and can find all the towns and cities.

That map is 100% correct, but if you’re trying to find an address near Whyte Ave its not very useful

Its not that the map is wrong, its just looking at things in a way that doesn’t give me the information I need and that information does exist.

Nice analogy. Now imagine if every vehicle in the province was loaded with a tracking device and the map updated dynamically based on the continuously evolving data transmission. 🙂

Woodguy v2.0 March 28, 2019 - 11:05 am

Georgexs,

Here’s a thing I wrote in October 2017 EDM’s SH% and why waiting for it to regress was not a good idea unless who was shooting was going to change:

http://becauseoilers.blogspot.com/2017/10/boy-we-have-lot-of-defensemen-shooting.html

OriginalPouzar March 28, 2019 - 11:05 am

Khaira “passed his test” today so, if he gets through practice fine tomorrow, he’ll be good for Saturday.

Wonder who may come out of the current lineup for him?

Currie potentially.

I know many will say Lucic or Rieder.

Woodguy v2.0 March 28, 2019 - 10:59 am

Georgexs,

Where Hawerchuk offers evidence on why you should ignore percentages.

I like Gabe a lot and I supported his favourite charity in order to entice him to derive some metrics I was curious about on his site 7-8 years ago.

I offered to pay for his time, and he said no, but give the $$$ to this charity and I’ll do it. Great guy.

That said, Gabe also stated that “shot quality” didn’t exist and offered $100 to anyone who could prove that it did.

Well lots of people since have proven that it does exist and the deeper we get into hockey metrics the more we realize that we need to compartmentalize different situations (QoT, QoC etc) and their outcomes to better understand what is happening.

Of course that leads to smaller sample sizes and more variance in the results, but that’s unavoidable.

Marchant_Rox March 28, 2019 - 10:53 am

Woodguy v2.0,

You don’t give yourself enough credit: I remember posts from you from long ago that used EVTOI for defensemen and noted that, even though WE thought some of these guys were terrible, their coaches kept throwing them over the boards. So the coach, who knew the players best, trusted them: what did the coaches know (or see) that we did not?

No that we need to run out and trade for every minutes-eating d-man, but how can we quantify what the coaches were obviously seeing?

Woodguy v2.0 March 28, 2019 - 10:52 am

Georgexs,

The correlation was 0.25. A linear model with the same predictors gives a correlation of 0.26. So there is some information there, just not a lot. The variance explained is under 7%. The predictive power of prior SH% on future SH% is very, very low, lots of regression to the mean.

This isn’t unexpected because the forwards in this sample would be established NHL players based on the fact they played 4 consecutive seasons. As a group, they’d tend to be closer in skill than the general population of forwards playing in any given season. This is what leads to the, oh look, SH% regresses to the mean articles like Hawerchuk’s.

I’m of the opinion that Team Mates are a key factor in SH% and if you cannot control for that finding correlations for the whole population will tell a bit, but not near enough.

Over the years I’ve started to look at the correlations and regressions of the whole player population as more of a starting point than an end point.

There is real skills involved in hockey (defending, passing, shooting, etc) that help drive each player’s results and these skills are not equally distributed so looking closer at individual players is required.

I think about it his way:

Regressions and correlations of the whole population of players is like a Provincial Map. You get the 30,000ft view and can find all the towns and cities.

That map is 100% correct, but if you’re trying to find an address near Whyte Ave its not very useful

Its not that the map is wrong, its just looking at things in a way that doesn’t give me the information I need and that information does exist.

Marchant_Rox March 28, 2019 - 10:49 am

Andy Dufresne,

I say trade him only because, if Benning truly is topping out as a 3RD – and that’s great; those guys play real minutes too! – then let’s use that slot to break in some of our younger guys. Especially when they can play opposite Sekara who will teach them the mysterious ways of keeping the puck out of your net in the NHL. And because I believe that we have a better chance of finding someone who still believes that Benning CAN be a 2RD than we have of finding someone who will take Russell off our hands.

Andy Dufresne March 28, 2019 - 10:47 am

Can anyone tell me, is Dennis King the new leader of the P.E.I. Progressive Conservative Party, the same Dennis King that used to do spots on the Lowetide radio show?

Woodguy v2.0 March 28, 2019 - 10:47 am

Georgexs,

This is a bit different. I don’t remember you taking an interest in parsing and projecting percentages before. You were more likely to link to an article like this:

I think the biggest thing is your assumptions about what I think and the fact that you haven’t read every single thing I’ve written.

Neither of those things diminish your opinion, it just is. You can’t possible know what I’m thinking, read everything I’ve written and know how some of my opinions change over time.

I’ve always had an interest in SH% as that seems to be a key to “how often corsis turn into goals”

I wrote a great big thing on NYR seeming to hire high SH% players almost exclusively and how that and Lundqvist made their “baseline” PDO around 1015 or so. Thought I published it, but I can’t find it anywhere.

The thing about SH% is that there is lots of noise/variance in the data, but you can still tease out who helps drive SH% and if someone does that then they help drive the Corsi/goal thing.

Of course passing, etc drives that too, but we don’t have that data.

Woodguy v2.0 March 28, 2019 - 10:38 am

Marchant_Rox:
Woodguy v2.0,

I don’t post often, but read everyday and wanted to say that this is EXACTLY how analytics should be used. Without context (or deeper analysis) we see Benning’s surface numbers and conclude that he should be moved up the batting order and expect success. This type of analysis shows us that coaches (sometimes) know what they are doing in as far as finding a way to place a player in the best situation for success. And that we should trade Benning for a useful winger before someone from the Canes reads this post.

Thank you very much, that means a lot.

I’ve tried to get better at context over the years. I was pretty bad to start.

Its funny that when a lot of the fancy stats guys you see on twitter (like Steve Burtch) look at 3rd pairing Dmen doing well by their metrics their conclusions have often been “the coach is stupid!!”

Their first response should have been “why?” and “want are we not measuring that influences this?”

We may disagree with coaches decisions often, but to assume they don’t know their players is a bit much.

OriginalPouzar March 28, 2019 - 10:28 am

JD Dudek signed an AHL ATO with Binghamton.

Now, I have zero concern as I don’t imagine the Oilers have plans to sign him, however, how does this work given the Oilers have his rights (Maroon trade)?

Ben March 28, 2019 - 10:27 am

I feel like a sucker saying this, but I hope Woodcroft gets a look for HC next year.

He seems pretty new-school, expresses himself well, and there’s some continuity with the players.

That said, I’m increasingly ok with Hitch coming back, too.

Oilman99 March 28, 2019 - 10:26 am

jp: +1

Sure is looking like he might be able to play on a skill line.

The more skill he plays with, the better he will perform. He has the high end skill to excel at any level.

Woodguy v2.0 March 28, 2019 - 10:24 am

Jethro Tull: Should the context then be Zone usage and QoC? We don’t know if they’re FO’s for offside or whatever….

I think all the non-coach driven face off locations wash out after a while and we also know that most zone start locations are driven by the players (good ones end up in the ozone more)

All the data I’m showing in this thread is “TOI vs Elite Forwards”

So for context you can say:

“Klefbom plays the highest percentage of his TOI vs Elites among Oiler Dmen as well as being on the ice for the most faceoffs/60 vs Elite. From the FO/60 number we can infer that he gets the least amount of “On The Fly” shifts which are very beneficial to the player’s results.

Of the ~70 FO/60 that Klefbom sees vs Elites, 45% of them in the ozone and 55% in the dzone when its not a neutral zone face off”

Alpine March 28, 2019 - 10:24 am

I don’t think the Oilers are gonna get a surefire 2RD this off season without paying through the nose so what they should be doing is optimizing their D Pairing and playing their top four less.

Sekera and Benning are averaging 16 and 14.5 mins respectively. Teams like Vegas, Arizona and Boston have six or seven D playing at least over 17-18 minutes.

I think the future of the oilers D is three good pairings and not two amazing pairs. Hard to get away with three or four D averaging 21 minutes or more without those D being close to elite.

Andy Dufresne March 28, 2019 - 10:21 am

Marchant_Rox:
Woodguy v2.0,

I don’t post often, but read everyday and wanted to say that this is EXACTLY how analytics should be used. Without context (or deeper analysis) we see Benning’s surface numbers and conclude that he should be moved up the batting order and expect success. This type of analysis shows us that coaches (sometimes) know what they are doing in as far as finding a way to place a player in the best situation for success. And that we should trade Benning for a useful winger before someone from the Canes reads this post.

Hi Rox, Welcome to the conversation!

IMO, Most peoples criticisms of Analytics is not based as much on the math as on the validity of the conclusions drawn.

While attempting to be scientific, Analytics is not yet an exacting science. (we dont need it to be exacting in order for it to be useful)

Your post is interesting in that it looks at a data set provided by WoodMoney and draws a different conclusion than others might draw. You conclude that the data suggests we should trade Benning, while others will conclude that the data suggests we should keep Benning because he is an above average third pairing D. Niether conclusion is wrong and the data informs both decisions.

The data is the data and from there value decisions enter the equation.

Woodguy v2.0 March 28, 2019 - 10:20 am

Jethro Tull: u

Well the teams and the NHL’s bookie partners will have access to it so they’re not *quite* sitting on it.

Oil2Oilers March 28, 2019 - 10:17 am

As comprehensively laid out above there is risk in penciling in Benning into a 2RD role next year.

I think the risk is worth taking, in part because my expectations are for next year to be yet another ‘development’ year and because I think the risks can be mitigated. Three ways I can see this mitigation happening;

Part of Benning’s suspect preformance over the last couple years has to do with quality of partner. Playing with a physically able Sekera or a more fully developed Nurse will have a positive impact on his play.

Load sharing is another way that Benning’s exposure to a full 2RD role can be eased. This can be by deploying the bottom two pairs in more of a 2a / 2b role versus ice time and quality of competition or by using the more innovative Dellow method Woodguy outlined above.

The third is simply tactics, should the Oilers play more than lip service to zone play (not giving up there own blue line, not dumping it off the glass and out) the job Benning faces is much easier to do.

To facilitate this I would be willing to sacrifice Bear, who has had an excellent 2nd half to his season, to remove Russell from the Oilers. I wish Bear a good NHL carrier but there is a bottle neck forming with D prospects and something has to give.

Jaxon March 28, 2019 - 10:07 am

Continuing on the Benson high…
If we consider his development delayed by 1 year when he missed 2 half seasons and probably played much of those seasons while not 100% without any summers to work on strength, endurance and skills, and we then consider this year akin to his 19 year old season, how does that compare to 19 year old seasons in the AHL going back to the 2005-06 season via 5v5 P1/60?

5v5 P1/60 (min. 30GP)
W Nylander 2.47
M Rantanen 2.44
D Brassard 2.34
T Benson 2.32
N Kadri 2.32
J Vrana 2.24
K Palmieri 2.23
N Filatov 2.23
E Poirier 2.2
T Tatar 2.18
L Caputi 2.14
M D’Agostini 2.00
T Meier 1.92

I’m sure there are many statistical reasons not to do this, but I was curious to see how his 20 year old season lined up against recent 19 year old seasons. They may have a hell of a player on their hands.

Note: All numbers from prospect-stats.com
Prospect Stats marks birthdays such that Benson is 20.504 years old this season (September 15th?), so the players included above could be as old as only 6 months younger than Benson.

Andy Dufresne March 28, 2019 - 10:07 am

I’ll take “Dirty Little Secret” for 200 Alex.

I had a couple of Flatliners and feel like getting something off my conscience.

I used to HATE the Calgary Flames. Neil (f#ckin) Sheehy, Tim Hunter, Joel Otto, Jim Peplinski, Hock a Loggie.

But 30 years have past and with some EMDR therapy I have gotten over it. SO

Now, once the Oilers are eliminated from contention ( Thanksgiving, Rememberance Day, Christmas, or whatever), I cheer based on the following Algorithm. I want the Cup back in Canada.

Team Closest to Edmonton Geographically > Lieing between the Rockie Mountains and the Eastern border of Manitoba. > Then teams from the Nations Capital > Then Canadian teams west of the Rockies >Then Teams from Quebec and the Maritimes > Then American Teams who have the least amount of Stanley Cups.

Cup Victories: Montreal (24), Toronto (13), Detroit (11), Boston (6), Chicago (6), Pittsburgh (5), NYR (4), NYI (4), New Jersey (3), Philidelphia (2), Los Angeles (2).)

Right now we are in a tie for 6th all time with Pittsburgh for most Stanley Cups by one team.

SO…..Lets Go Flames! Lets Go Jets!

Oh and not Dallas. NEVER Dallas.

Marchant_Rox March 28, 2019 - 9:55 am

Woodguy v2.0,

I don’t post often, but read everyday and wanted to say that this is EXACTLY how analytics should be used. Without context (or deeper analysis) we see Benning’s surface numbers and conclude that he should be moved up the batting order and expect success. This type of analysis shows us that coaches (sometimes) know what they are doing in as far as finding a way to place a player in the best situation for success. And that we should trade Benning for a useful winger before someone from the Canes reads this post.

godot10 March 28, 2019 - 9:53 am

If Patrick Marleau were willing to waive his no-move clause to come to Edmonton, would you be willing to trade Gagner and Manning to Toronto for him. Toronto can save $3 million in cap room burying Gagner and Manning in the minors vs. having Marleau on the roster. I’m viewing this as a pure cap move from Toronto’s persepective.

i.e. Would you rather have Marleau at $2 million dollar greater cap hit than Gagner (with Manning buried).

Material Elvis March 28, 2019 - 9:53 am

OriginalPouzar:
Tyler Benson is 2nd in the AHL in scoring in 2019 – not rookie scoring, overall scoring.He’s is torching the AHL along with the help of Marody.

Daniel Carr says, “I don’t think so OP”.

Jethro Tull March 28, 2019 - 9:48 am

Woodguy v2.0: Yup

Should the context then be Zone usage and QoC? We don’t know if they’re FO’s for offside or whatever….

Jethro Tull March 28, 2019 - 9:46 am

Woodguy v2.0: Based on the rumblings out of the NHL I don’t think they’re going to make the data public.

Would be a shame.

“Let’s do a great thing. Then sit on it.”

Woodguy v2.0 March 28, 2019 - 9:44 am

Jethro Tull:
Woodguy v2.0,

FO/60 = Face Offs per 60?

Yup

blackadder March 28, 2019 - 9:44 am

Really happy to see Benson succeeding in the AHL this year. Wondering if we see him make the Oilers before Yamamoto given the way their seasons have gone, although Yamamoto’s point totals are likely a little less because he spent most of his time on Bakersfield’s third line before Currie’s recall.

Jethro Tull March 28, 2019 - 9:43 am

Woodguy v2.0,

FO/60 = Face Offs per 60?

Woodguy v2.0 March 28, 2019 - 9:43 am

russ99:
Woodguy v2.0,

Awesome post.

Hope the puck/player trackers next year give us a new way to track about play without the puck, since this is the real reason Benning shouldn’t play on the second pair.

Thanks Russ.

Based on the rumblings out of the NHL I don’t think they’re going to make the data public.

Would be a shame.

Woodguy v2.0 March 28, 2019 - 9:43 am

flyfish1168: I would love to see phlegms versus Stars in the 1st round. Southern neighbours could be 4 and out before the Easter weekend.

CGY will be the first seed so they’ll see the 2nd wildcard.

Right now COL is burning up the track because Grubauer (who I desperately wanted for EDM) is ripping it up.

Grubauer in March all situations:
10gp
.955 SV% (!!!)

If Grubauer is hot and CGY starts Smith I can see an upset there.

Goalies are almost everything in the playoffs.

Also,

Grubauer is a good object lesson is the value of cap space. (if you’re smart enough to use it)

COL basically got their starter for the next 2 years and locked him down at $3.33MM all for a 2nd because they could afford to buy out Orpik on WSH’s behalf.

russ99 March 28, 2019 - 9:42 am

Woodguy v2.0,

Awesome post.

Hope the puck/player trackers next year give us a new way to track about play without the puck, since this is the real reason Benning shouldn’t play on the second pair.

Woodguy v2.0 March 28, 2019 - 9:36 am

name FO/ 60
Oscar Klefbom 70.5
Adam Larsson 68.7
Darnell Nurse 60.6
Kris Russell 59.0
Caleb Jones 53.7
Matthew Benning 46.4
Andrej Sekera 44.0

What’s also interesting about this is the ability to define the “#1 pair” if the TOI% vs Elites is close.

EDM runs a “top 4” vs Elites and doesn’t lean heavily (>42% vs Elites or so is “heavy”….Chara is 49%…) on any one pair.

EDM’s Dmen TOI% vs Elites this year:

name ctoipct
Oscar Klefbom 35.5
Adam Larsson 35.4
Darnell Nurse 34.0
Caleb Jones 33.5
Kris Russell 30.9
Matthew Benning 23.9
Andrej Sekera 15.6

The FO/60 adds a nice layer of context to the above numbers.

77-6 is the “top pair” or “trusted pair” we should look at their results through that lens.

They see the pisscutters the most. (although Nurse is close)

Also,

We also see that when Hitch ran Jones with Larsson he didn’t back off Larsson’s work load.

“Welcome to the NHL kid, now go play vs the best of the best”

flyfish1168 March 28, 2019 - 9:31 am

Woodguy v2.0:
OriginalPouzar,

If I’m not mistaken, Bishop got hurt last night – no idea how serious it might be.

I was getting ready to bet on DAL as a dog vs WPG in the first round mostly due to Bishop, but this throws a big kink into those plans.

I would love to see phlegms versus Stars in the 1st round. Southern neighbours could be 4 and out before the Easter weekend. 🙂

Woodguy v2.0 March 28, 2019 - 9:27 am

Andy Dufresne: Awesome Post. Very intriguing. Thank You. (and GMoney)

Thanks Andy

Woodguy v2.0 March 28, 2019 - 9:27 am

OriginalPouzar,

If I’m not mistaken, Bishop got hurt last night – no idea how serious it might be.

I was getting ready to bet on DAL as a dog vs WPG in the first round mostly due to Bishop, but this throws a big kink into those plans.

meanashell11 March 28, 2019 - 9:26 am

Pescador: Ahl.com has Benson 14th in league scoring & second in rookie pts.
You have posted this several times, where’s the disconnect?

2019

Andy Dufresne March 28, 2019 - 9:25 am

Woodguy v2.0: Bam!

Awesome Post. Very intriguing. Thank You. (and GMoney)

Darth Tu March 28, 2019 - 9:21 am

Professor Q: AHL.com is a science-based market and investment research group’s website, is likely why.

There’s an obvious joke here including something about science/stats and player selection, and then Oilers.com. I’m not sure how to put it together, but you know what I mean.

Woodguy v2.0 March 28, 2019 - 9:18 am

Professor Q: AHL.com is a science-based market and investment research group’s website, is likely why.

Hehe.

Woodguy v2.0 March 28, 2019 - 9:17 am

Benning’s success against elites (Dangerous Fenwick Percentage) suggests to me the Oilers may want to flip him to second pair.

I’d be really cautious about putting Benning up in 2nd pair.

I think the last few games here would be a good trial given that the results really don’t matter.

What we find in WoodMoney is that a lot of 3rd pair Dmen look good vs Elites.

When you dig into it further this seems to be for two main reasons:

1) OnTheFly shifts – The Dman gets to play vs Elites when the puck is already moving to the ozone and they jump on the ice – the opposing Elites are already into their shift so they get the “tired” part of the shift as well as the having the Elites defending

OTF is a “Dellow metric” and it really gives us a lot of information.

Dellow covers this very well here: https://theathletic.com/468934/2018/08/15/dellow-how-mike-babcock-and-others-are-sheltering-defencemen-while-playing-them-against-top-opposition/?redirected=1

2) Playing vs Elites with their best forwards – 3rd pair Dmen tend to see the Elites usually only with the pisscutters on their own team. Coaches work hard to make this happen and avoid unfavorable matchups.

While we don’t have OTF data in WoodMoney yet (G has promised to make it happen eventually) we do have all the faceoff data.

What is interesting is that the if you just look at Ozone Starts (OZS – which is ozone FO/ozone FO + dzone FO) nothing really shows up.

Here is EDM’s main Dmen and their OZS vs Elites this year:

name OZS %
Matthew Benning 0.47
Kris Russell 0.46
Oscar Klefbom 0.45
Darnell Nurse 0.45
Adam Larsson 0.43
Caleb Jones 0.43
Andrej Sekera 0.42

So if you were just using OZS to try to find sheltering vs Elites, this would say “its about the same”

But its not.

If you add up all the Face Offs each Dman is on the ice for vs Elite forwards you can compare to see “who is getting the very beneficial OTF shifts”

The less often a players has a faceoff vs Elites the more their shifts vs Elites are starting “On The Fly”

Here’s the same group with the frequency of faceoffs they see vs Elite forwards:

name FO/ 60
Oscar Klefbom 70.5
Adam Larsson 68.7
Darnell Nurse 60.6
Kris Russell 59.0
Caleb Jones 53.7
Matthew Benning 46.4
Andrej Sekera 44.0

Bam!

Now we can see how often the coach is “sending out the player vs Elites” and infer the number of OTF shifts.

This is all normalized to minutes played vs Elites so you can compare the numbers.

Benning’s low FO/60 vs Elites infers he’s getting a lot of OTF shifts which have good DFF and GF% baked into them since the puck is already on its way to the ozone.

Now that we have 5 years of WoodMoney data (website will be updated soon! hopefully before the end of the season) it might be an interesting exercise to look at Dmen who have graduated from 3rd pair to 2nd pair and see how they did.

Of course there will be a ton of confounding factors (QoT being the strongest) but still interesting to look at.

JimmyV1965 March 28, 2019 - 9:16 am

Pescador: Ahl.com has Benson 14th in league scoring & second in rookie pts.
You have posted this several times, where’s the disconnect?

I believe he means since Jan. 1.

Andy Dufresne March 28, 2019 - 9:13 am

OriginalPouzar:
Guelph is on SN360 at 5 mountain today – a great way to warm up for the Oilers game, with a little playoff Samorukov!!!!

Playoff Hockey! Oilers Style!

Going to play a playoff drinking game.

Every time Samorukov scores a point you take a shot!……of a cocktail called a Flatliner.

Sambuca, Tequila Blanco, Hot Sauce! (designed to resusitate heart broken Oilers fans)

On a rather SOBERING note. I was in a Shoppers Drug Mart yesterday. In the CLEARANCE section was a big pile of Oilers car window flags……….sigh……..

jp March 28, 2019 - 9:10 am

OriginalPouzar:
Tyler Benson is 2nd in the AHL in scoring in 2019 – not rookie scoring, overall scoring.He’s is torching the AHL along with the help of Marody.

Marody/Benson are the McDavid/Drai of the AHL.

Tyler Benson will definitely be in the conversation for an NHL job next year.

I think most of us thought of him as an eventual middle 6 player as injuries maybe have robbed him of his initial ceiling.

I’m not so sure he hasn’t raised his ceiling back to where it once was when he was in the conversation for exceptional status coming in to the WHL.

Keep going Tyler!

+1

Sure is looking like he might be able to play on a skill line.

Professor Q March 28, 2019 - 9:08 am

Pescador: Ahl.com has Benson 14th in league scoring & second in rookie pts.
You have posted this several times, where’s the disconnect?

AHL.com is a science-based market and investment research group’s website, is likely why.

jp March 28, 2019 - 9:07 am

Pescador: Ahl.com has Benson 14th in league scoring & second in rookie pts.
You have posted this several times, where’s the disconnect?

Since Jan 1st 2019.

Andy Dufresne March 28, 2019 - 9:07 am

Woodguy v2.0: Wildcard Relevant Games today:

DAL at EDM (DAL -115)

YES! Wild Card Relevant! In early April ! Edmonton!

Zip-a-dee-doo-dah, zip-a-dee-ay
My, oh, my, what a wonderful day
Plenty of sunshine headin’ my way
Zip-a-dee-doo-dah, zip-a-dee-ay!

Zip-a-dee-……..Oh……..right……….

Isnt it time to Spring Forward……to the Lottery Relevant games posting??

jp March 28, 2019 - 9:06 am

I agree that Benning has looked like a failure when tried in the top 4 for two years running. But I don’t know how to explain this (I’m just going to keep posting it).

Last 2 seasons, On ice with:
Klefbom 568min 23GF-24GA 48.9%
Nurse 225min 20GF-10GA 66.7%
Russell 120min 6GF-4GA 60.0%

Total 49GF-38GA 56.3%

Considerable success when playing top 4 minutes, apparently.

flyfish1168 March 28, 2019 - 9:05 am

OriginalPouzar:
Tyler Benson is 2nd in the AHL in scoring in 2019 – not rookie scoring, overall scoring.He’s is torching the AHL along with the help of Marody.

Marody/Benson are the McDavid/Drai of the AHL.

Tyler Benson will definitely be in the conversation for an NHL job next year.

I think most of us thought of him as an eventual middle 6 player as injuries maybe have robbed him of his initial ceiling.

I’m not so sure he hasn’t raised his ceiling back to where it once was when he was in the conversation for exceptional status coming in to the WHL.

Keep going Tyler!

Tyler should be a shoo-in to win AHL Rookie of the year.
Alex Barre-Boulet is a year older and played more games.

Darth Tu March 28, 2019 - 9:02 am

OriginalPouzar:
Tyler Benson is 2nd in the AHL in scoring in 2019 – not rookie scoring, overall scoring.He’s is torching the AHL along with the help of Marody.

Marody/Benson are the McDavid/Drai of the AHL.

Tyler Benson will definitely be in the conversation for an NHL job next year.

I think most of us thought of him as an eventual middle 6 player as injuries maybe have robbed him of his initial ceiling.

I’m not so sure he hasn’t raised his ceiling back to where it once was when he was in the conversation for exceptional status coming in to the WHL.

Keep going Tyler!

I think you’ve previously said that Marody might work on the wing in the NHL, I’m all for this. He clearly has the hockey brain and the skills, footspeed is a little slow, but if we can get a decent center in between Marody and Benson (when he’s ready to step up to the NHL), we could be onto a productive 3rd line.

I’ve liked Cave’s effort and he gets himself into decent shooting lanes, I’d be happy with him bumping to 4th line center. Is it too much rookie to slot Currie and Gambardella in there too? Of course this leads to the “what do we do with Looch” issue. Maybe have him on the 4th line and flip Currie/Gambardella in and out as needed? Lot of money to be playing 4th line, but I guess that’s where we are with Looch now.

Call me an optimist but I’m starting to come around on how far away with the bottom six actually is.

Summer time, priority has to be bringing in a 2RD. Benning has good numbers, but they’re in that sheltered role. I say let him play as the 3RD to start the season.

Pescador March 28, 2019 - 9:02 am

OriginalPouzar:
Tyler Benson is 2nd in the AHL in scoring in 2019 – not rookie scoring, overall scoring.He’s is torching the AHL

Ahl.com has Benson 14th in league scoring & second in rookie pts.
You have posted this several times, where’s the disconnect?

hunter1909 March 28, 2019 - 8:51 am

Is there a game on tonight?

Must win game!

bwahahahahahahahaha

OriginalPouzar March 28, 2019 - 8:47 am

Congrats to Reggie on his nomination for the Masterton – he deserves it for sure.

OriginalPouzar March 28, 2019 - 8:44 am

Tyler Benson is 2nd in the AHL in scoring in 2019 – not rookie scoring, overall scoring. He’s is torching the AHL along with the help of Marody.

Marody/Benson are the McDavid/Drai of the AHL.

Tyler Benson will definitely be in the conversation for an NHL job next year.

I think most of us thought of him as an eventual middle 6 player as injuries maybe have robbed him of his initial ceiling.

I’m not so sure he hasn’t raised his ceiling back to where it once was when he was in the conversation for exceptional status coming in to the WHL.

Keep going Tyler!

Woodguy v2.0 March 28, 2019 - 8:42 am

Eastern Conference Playoff Standings using Points Percentage shown as points over/under fake Bettman .500

Atlantic
TBY 45
BOS 26
TOR 20

Metropolitan
WSH 21
PIT 18
NYI 18

Wildcard
CAR 15
MTL 13

Out of playoffs
CBJ 12
PHI 5
FLA 1
BUF -5
NYR -5
NJD -10
DET -10
OTT -16

Wildcard Relevant Games today:

WAS at CAR (CAR -140)
MTL at CBJ (CBJ -150) – Yuge game.

OriginalPouzar March 28, 2019 - 8:41 am

Two years in a row the organization has gone in to the season hopeful that Matt Benning could take the step and grab the 2RD role. Two years in a row Matt Benning hasn’t been able to make it happen, at least by the eye test.

With that said, while not young, Benning is still a developing d-man given pro experience and he’s playing the best hockey of his career.

The time to experiment with that 2RD spot is now – well, it was 6 weeks ago, however, Hitch/Yawney owe it to the 2019/20 edition of the Oilers to give some other players than Russell some looks there?

Will we see it? I wouldn’t hold my breath.

Woodguy v2.0 March 28, 2019 - 8:41 am

Western Conference Playoff Standings using Points Percentage shown as points over/under fake Bettman .500

Pacific
CGY 24
SJS 19
VGK 13

Central
WPG 18
NSH 15
STL 14

Wildcard
DAL 9
COL 6

Out of playoffs
ARI 4
MIN 2
CHI 0
EDM 0
VAN -3
ANA -4
LAK -12

Wildcard Relevant Games today:

DAL at EDM (DAL -115)

OriginalPouzar March 28, 2019 - 8:33 am

Guelph is on SN360 at 5 mountain today – a great way to warm up for the Oilers game, with a little playoff Samorukov!!!!

OriginalPouzar March 28, 2019 - 8:32 am

If nothing else (and I believe there is “lots else”), McDavid and Drai and the quest for 50G/100P/Richard is reason enough to tune in.

Can Joe G. have another plus game up the lineup? He had an apple last game and probably deserved a second.

Can Kassian continue to be a plus player on the top line, continuing to “prove” this may not be a heater and maybe he is finding some consistency – do heaters last 2 months?

Will Hitch notice that Sekera/Nurse had one shift together last game which was spent entirely in the offensive zone and led to a goal?

If I’m not mistaken, Bishop got hurt last night – no idea how serious it might be.

Go Oilers!

Comments are closed.