A Matter of Trust

by Lowetide

The Edmonton Oilers have a self inflicted goalie issue and that’s a fact. Ken Hitchcock blamed it on being “far too easily discouraged” but Mikko Koskinen’s glove will be part of the summer conversation and none of the skaters has anything to do with that issue. We are told that the signing was a mass management decision, and that’s a tell. Edmonton’s pro evaluation abilities are an active threat to this franchise and its fanbase.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group. INSANE NEW OFFER IS HERE!

  • New Lowetide: Kailer Yamamoto’s first pro season a cause for concern.
  • New Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers and the giant talent pool that is the USHL.
  • Lowetide: How the Oilers can shop for a big bang on a small budget
  • Jonathan Willis: How the Oilers can turn their prospect depth into the blueline of a contender.
  • Lowetide: What Mark Hunter’s draft record in Toronto means for his Oilers GM candidacy.
  • Lowetide: Colby Cave and Joe Gambardella build late-season resumes with Edmonton.
  • Lowetide: The Oilers made a rare move and shopped the QMJHL at the 2018 draft. It could happen again.
  • Eric Duhatschek: Sorting through the organizational problems in Ottawa and Edmonton.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: After a year of despair, Oilers prospect Cameron Hebig grateful for latest chapter with the Condors
  • Jonathan Willis: Bob Nicholson’s misguided Tobias Rieder comments reveal deeper problems within Oilers management
  • Jonathan Willis: Ken Hitchcock knows why Edmonton has trouble exiting its zone, but lacks the players to fix it.
  • Lowetide: Trimming cap fat and adding speed and skill will shape Oilers’ offseason.
  • Jonathan Willis: Former Canucks architects Mike Gillis and Laurence Gilman should be considered for any vacant NHL GM job
  • Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers draft early, the WHL is loaded and there’s a lot of history.
  • Jonathan Willis: Analyzing how much the Oilers should be willing to spend on pending free agent Alex Chiasson.
  • Jonathan Willis: Keith Gretzky is a legitimate Oilers GM candidate, but would be a hard sell in Edmonton
  • Lowetide: How the Oilers can build a contender during Connor McDavid’s prime.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How Leon Draisaitl has found ‘another level’ by matching offensive wizardry with sound positioning.
  • Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers and the OHL.

OILERS AFTER 78

  • Oilers in 2015: 30-41-7, 67 points; goal differential -36
  • Oilers in 2016: 44-25-9, 97 points; goal differential +31
  • Oilers in 2017: 34-38-6, 74 points; goal differential -36
  • Oilers in 2018: 34-35-9, 77 points; goal differential -27

OILERS IN MARCH

  • Oilers in March 2016: 7-7-0, 14 points; goal differential -2
  • Oilers in March 2017: 9-3-1, 19 points; goal differential +17
  • Oilers in March 2018: 7-5-2, 16 points; goal differential +4
  • Oilers in March 2019: 7-5-2, 16 points; goal differential -2

WHAT TO EXPECT IN MARCH

  • On the road to: Columbus, Buffalo (Expected 0-1-1) (Actual 2-0-0)
  • At home to: Vancouver, Toronto, NY Rangers, NJD (Expected 2-1-1) (Actual 2-2-0)
  • On the road to: Arizona, Vegas, St. Louis (Expected: 0-2-1) (Actual 1-2-0)
  • At home to: Columbus,Ottawa, Los Angeles, Dallas, Anaheim (Expected: 3-1-1) (Actual 2-0-2)
  • Overall expected result: 5-5-4, 14 points in 14 games
  • Current results: 7-5-2, 16 points in 14 games

LAST NIGHT

I slept in so the numbers aren’t done, my apologies. The event summary via NHL.com and the Natural Stat Trick stat pack are your friend. Koskinen was very poor but he wasn’t alone. Adam Larsson had a bad game, McDavid’s line was 0-3 GF at 5-on-5, but in all honesty when the goalie doesn’t stop pucks the stats take a powder and not much can be learned from them.

THE FUTURE

Cooper Marody scored again last night, his line is now 52, 19-39-58 on the campaign. Someone wrote in the comments section yesterday that the attention given Tyler Benson (62, 14-48-62) was obscuring a brilliant season by No. 20. That’s true.

The issue with Marody as an NHL player is that we’re uncertain of his position. Is he a center? A RH No. 3 center with skill would be a major positive for this organization. Is he a right wing? If so, we’re going to be looking at him as an option to replace Ty Rattie, Kailer Yamamoto and Jesse Puljujarvi on the opening night roster in 2019-20.

OPENING NIGHT 2018-19

  • Nuge — McDavid — Rattie
  • Lucic — Draisaitl — Yamamoto
  • Khaira — Strome — Puljujarvi
  • Rieder — Brodziak — Kassian

The new general manager has enormous riches here (97, 29, 93) and some nice complementary pieces (Kassian, Khaira) and a couple of unproven players (Yamamoto, Puljujarvi).

We can talk about tweaks, but the new general manager is going to come in and have zero allegiance to any players. Increasingly, I worry the men about to be traded are either very useful now (Adam Larsson, Matt Benning, Jujhar Khaira) or a big part of a somewhere future (Jesse Puljujarvi, Caleb Jones). The general manager would be wise to take a careful approach to this summer. I’m reminded of my worry about Peter Chiarelli and his potentially trading Nuge. As it turned out, I was worried about the wrong gem.


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leadfarmer

Bruce McCurdy,

It’s kind of funny to listen to someone that is still holding hope on Spooner and Gagner and throw Koskinen away so quickly
Spooner just needs to play with some skill

I mean Koskinen is a very meh goalie
But I think he hit on OPs wife at some point in the last year

Bruce McCurdy

who: Koskinen was bad because OP hated the 1year deal and now he hates the 3 year deal.
Not saying he’s wrong, but when you make an absolute judgement on a player before you ever see him play, it kinda sets you up to eat crow. Or you can do what OP is doing, and spin every goal that goes in as a goaltending issue.
I’m still on the fence regarding Koskinen. I prefer a little more information before I make my decisions. He was bad last game. End of story. But I really hope he wins the Vezina next year. Just to watch OP sqirm.

I hope he wins the Vezina just to see the Oilers succeed.

who

Bruce McCurdy: How was Koskinen bad in the Columbus game? 4-1 win, no chance on the 1.

Koskinen was bad because OP hated the 1year deal and now he hates the 3 year deal.
Not saying he’s wrong, but when you make an absolute judgement on a player before you ever see him play, it kinda sets you up to eat crow. Or you can do what OP is doing, and spin every goal that goes in as a goaltending issue.
I’m still on the fence regarding Koskinen. I prefer a little more information before I make my decisions. He was bad last game. End of story. But I really hope he wins the Vezina next year. Just to watch OP sqirm.

OriginalPouzar

Aghhh, it seems I missed one game where he wasn’t poor – thank you Bruce.

Bruce McCurdy

OriginalPouzar:
The Dallas OT game was the only game in the last 8 where Koskinen wasn’t bad – he was fine/good – couldn’t be faulted on either of the goals.Khudibbin stole that game.

How was Koskinen bad in the Columbus game? 4-1 win, no chance on the 1.

Bruce McCurdy

Rebillled:
Bruce McCurdy,

That’s what i meant by first full year but either way, after Roloson its been downhill with the exception of’16 Talbot.

Hard year is right.

Hard decade etc.

Kevin Lowe for another decade? 1998 to 2028 seems about right. Bobby will get tenure soon too. Just wait.

Misread on my part, sorry.

That said, I’ll stand by my take that the decision to tank was sparked by the Khabi injury in 2009 November, not a plan going into that season. As someone else pointed out, too many other items in summer 2009 — the coaching “dream team”, the Heatley fiasco, the Khabi signing in the first place — all suggest the club was trying to reload. (that all three of those targets had questionable value is irrelevant to their actual intent)

OriginalPouzar

pts2pndr: You missed a step in the process. The end result is correct. Previous coach would not play Strome on the wing. He initially was traded for a good skating winger/centerwho was traded for Gagner. Most of the communitywould prefer the team to have kept Strome. To go directly from Strome to Gagner is disingenuine.

It really was odd how McLellan used Strome. The verbal in the off-season after the trade was the hope that he could get back to his volume shooting from his first few years in the league and provide scoring in the top 6. He started the pre-season on the wing in the top 6, scored a goal and then was essentially never seen there again except for the odd shift.

McLellan essentially used every other option at wing in the top 6 but Strome.

Eventually Strome found a role on the team as a generally defensive 3C who was starting to become an effective penalty killer. There was almost zero offence (although he did show plus creativity with the puck in the offensive zone but his wingers were middling) but the line didn’t give up much.

He was then traded in the name of offence in the top 6. Of course, the player he was traded for never got used in the top 6 after his first 5 games on the team.

——————————-

With all that said, given his lack of offensive production, Ryan Strome was one of the more maligned players on the team prior to the trade but, of course, after he’s traded away, the “black hole” verbal immediately shifts to “solid right shot 3C” verbal.

OriginalPouzar

pts2pndr: So over the last 8 games Koskinen has been terrible by what you have observed. Of those eight games I would say terrible in two average in four and above average in two. The team won loss record by what you say should be 0 and 8. No team wins with terrible goal tending. There is no intent on my part to pick on your point of view however the results do not back up your statement. I believe as do you thatthe four year contract for Koskinen was an overpay and the term excessive. I am willing to use the OP positive attitude to give him a chance and not write him off with small sample size.

I disagree on performance over the last 8 games. The Dallas game was the only non poor game from Koskinen. Some 5-bell saves does not make up for multiple weak or soft goals.

I will go in to next season hopeful that Koskinen will be better as well. I’m an Oiler fan and I cheer for Oiler success – he is key to that. At the same time, there isn’t anything based on his NHL career to suggest it will be different. A full season is a solid sample size. The saving grace is that goalies sometimes have off season and then plus season. Lets hope this was an off-season.

OriginalPouzar

Kinger_Oil.redux: – Teams that don’t win very many games have goalies that let in more goals.I’d be pretty confident that the P% and SV% relationship is pretty strong season over season

– In any stretch a goalie can be lights out. But save Talbot’s season where his strong play coincided with the best roster since 2006, our goalies are bad because they play on bad teams

– Maybe there are a few starts where you’d like Koski to be a little better, but teams that are good: their goalies have more quality starts.

– Koski is the first non-starter that we brought in that was given a proper allocation of games in the pre-season, and was played on a decent schedule for the first few months.And on merit he won the starting role

– Of course, we’ve reverted back to riding one goalie hard, and not giving the back-up chances (the B2B where Koski played in Vegas was dumb)

– So you’ve got a goalie being misused on a bad team…

– We really don’t have a good track record of managing goalies.And you’d like to see some more goalie coach turn-over to see if there are some things other coaches might bring.

– Cary Price couldn’t save the Habs last year, but this year, on a better team he’s “back”.Is Lundqvist bad and old now, or is his team just no longer good?On and on

– Maybe if the team is better, our goalie will be better next year.I don’t see Koski as the reason for why we didn’t make the playoffs.And if Talbot had Koski’s SV% that’s 14 less goals

– Goalies may be voodoo in small samples, but save some exceptions, bad NHL goalies are a result more of bad hockeying over lengthy periods: I’d like to know how to validate this

Yes, teams with worse goalies who let in more goals and have worse save percentages win less games.

The team is not great but the poor play of the goalie is part of that. If you read through the thread you will see that Koskinen does NOT face a higher level of higher danger shots and, at the same time, he stops a lesser percentage of the one’s he does stop. The verbal that Koskinen is only shitty because of the defence is overblown and may not be true at all. The verbal that Koskinen is not shitty when the defence is healthy doesn’t line up with current play behind a healthy defence (who is NOT leaking high danger chances at a materially higher rate than most other teams)

Kosinen’s “quality start” percentage is below .500 and that is while not facing more high danger shots than most.

Correct, Koskinen is a non-starter, that’s based on NHL performance. Yup, he’s been given starter’s minutes because he is the starter on this team – he didn’t earn it though (a 10 game heater followed by a 15 game cold streak got him the job somehow).

Of course, if the team is better, the goalie may play better but the team will be better if the goalie plays better – he has not played well and the team has suffered.

BONE207

Reja: The new GM or Keith is going to be a busy beaver this offseason it’ll be interesting at the very least.

Busy beavers are already working on their dams. Oilers don’t have or don’t give a dam. This GM may not be around till the summer which seriously curtails their timeline to get much done.

An outside hire sooner would still have to assess their tragic state of Disorganization. If they heed inside advice, that may further destroy the team.

Interesting it will be. Either a phoenix rising from ashes or the derailment of a slow moving column of oil tankers

BONE207

LT…sleeping in?
Seems to me that everyone did a fine job with the stats today so as to cover your ass.
Another fine gem?
Would you be referring to Strome?
I like the story about Ralph Krueger. I liked him as a coach & seems to be a great candidate for poho. A good hire for that position might be all we need from that person. If they can build an organization that can be cohesive & put the team first without all kinds of drama, I’ll be a fan again. If not, I’ll drive CONNOR to the airport myself to get him the hell out of here. There is no worse travesty than him not etched into the Cup.

Reja

Glovjuice: Exactly, Koskinen and our wingers and half our D, and half our coaches suck. So, correct, not all on Koskinen. And our GM for the last 4 years has been horrendous so definitely not all on Koskinen. But, still a terrible, awful contract though. That is indisputable.

The new GM or Keith is going to be a busy beaver this offseason it’ll be interesting at the very least.

New Improved Darkness

Fossils discovered from the day the dinosaurs died 66 million years ago, when an asteroid hit the Earth — 29 March 2019 by Doyle Rice

At the dig site [in present-day North Dakota] scientists found fish with hot glass in their gills from flaming debris that showered back down on Earth [after a giant asteroid struck present-day Mexico].

This is pretty amazing discovery: hot, glass beads fanning Dakota into a smouldering ruin, as related by Doyle Rice.

And just who is Doyle Rice? On his own Linked-In page: “I am the weather editor and reporter at USA Today.”

Or, as he now greats the ladies—newly armed with this fabulous material—after the show:

Rice, Doyle Rice. I am the weather editor and reporter at USA Today. Pleased to make your acquaintance. [Turns to silver drinks platter, as it glides past.] Shaken or stirred?

Lady [whispering]: “Did he just introduce himself as Rice Boil?”

Lady [whispering back]: “No—Doyle Rice, with a D, in the other order.”

———-

Earlier that night, back in the studio:

“Good evening everyone … [high, low, blah blah, sun, cloud, rain] … and that about wraps things up for the continental U.S.

Stay tuned for a blast from the past, as we return to a very special day 24.09 billion days ago, where all of Texas was covered in gushers, as mercury spurted out the tops of molten thermometers, from sea to boiling sea, not to mention the shimmering sky.”

———

By my math, we’re now a scant 250,000 years downstream from the 24-billionth dieaversary of the big fire-show.

So if you’re the persnickety sort who demands a properly round occasion—a round, round, round 24.000,000,000 billion days ago instead of a no-good, not very round at all 24.090,000,000 billion days ago—best if didn’t miss the mostly erect Ug when you had the chance—supposing his bananastrater lasted the whole show.

———

The general viewing audience customarily found themselves extremely frustrated with these early weathermen. Everyone knows for sure that somewhere within walking distance had received the ideal bright sunshine that perfectly ripens a lush, plump banana, because Ug just swallowed the last one—whole—right before everyone’s eyes, moments before he was about to bananastrate their optimal whereabouts on the Big Board.

———

[*] Dieaversary ­— from “diem”, Latin for day; plus “averse”, Latin for way, way too many sad-sack groundhogs to even begin to contemplate.

JimmyV1965

Glovjuice: spooner is a slow AHL winger.

Spooner is many things, but slow is not one of them.

Glovjuice

pts2pndr: You missed a step in the process. The end result is correct. Previous coach would not play Strome on the wing. He initially was traded for a good skating winger/centerwho was traded for Gagner. Most of the communitywould prefer the team to have kept Strome. To go directly from Strome to Gagner is disingenuine.

spooner is a slow AHL winger.

Glovjuice

Reja: When I watch teams that are playing well they come in waves line after line. when I watch the Oilers play well it’s just means Leon and McDavid or on a even hotter heater our wingers are a embarrassment the new GM has to fix this and fast. To blame Kosh for every loss the past month is not being objective.

Exactly, Koskinen and our wingers and half our D, and half our coaches suck. So, correct, not all on Koskinen. And our GM for the last 4 years has been horrendous so definitely not all on Koskinen. But, still a terrible, awful contract though. That is indisputable.

Glovjuice

Scungilli Slushy: Which begs the question, over a large sample why is that? The spread should be close and the top and bottom teams closing to the median after a few years, no?

Weather and travel. Alberta also has the highest MS rate in the world I think.

Oz

Scungilli Slushy: The goalie coach is obviously not doing a good In Edmonton. Maybe he’s a good coach, maybe it’s behind the scenes, but it clearly isn’t working. None of the coaches under the head coach have done much to change anything, who knows why not? What happened to the D whisperer? Manny?

Personally I want Manny back with a strong role. He’s a positive creative modern coach. I’m not sure he’s ready for head coach, but if they promote Woodcroft especially, or whomever comes, I hope they keep him and let’s him run with something.

I don’t know enough about Yawney to have a though on him. Gulatzan does not interest me in the least. I didn’t like the out of control temper tantrums (way too old school for me), WG noticed issues in his tenure with the Flames.

Positive motivation works way better, especially today, especially when things out of the player’s control – like being on a shallow team with unstable goalies missing key pieces – are acknowledged somehow, instead of more pressure and public criticisms which the Oilers always seem to manage to do instead.

I agree with this 100%
I have not seen been supportive of Gulutzan based on his performance in Calgary, and at the time of his signing I posted my objection. Would be OK with Woodcroft as a replacement, but the new G.M. will and should make those choices.

pts2pndr

Glovjuice: We traded a right shot solidish 3C for a washed up, slow, AHL winger. You can’t make this shit up.

You missed a step in the process. The end result is correct. Previous coach would not play Strome on the wing. He initially was traded for a good skating winger/center who was traded for Gagner. Most of the community would prefer the team to have kept Strome. To go directly from Strome to Gagner is disingenuine.

pts2pndr

OriginalPouzar: I believe last year I was in favor of signing the likes of Lehner, Halak and Bernier over Koskinen at $2.5M.Hardly “proven incapable” and, in fact, at the time were far more proven than Koskinen, and remain so.

The goalie is 32nd in the NHL at high danger save percentage and 27th at medium danger. He faces less high danger shots per game than Gibson, Lehner, Holtby, Sarros, Rinne, Holtby, etc.

He faces less high danger shots than many goalies performing much better than him.Yes, the team defence can be better but this verbal that he is terrible only because the team is does not seem to fit that numbers, not at even strength.

He has been awful the last 8 straight games with a fully healthy defensive group that is not leaking high danger scoring chances really any more than other teams, by my eye.He’s simply not stopping the puck.

So over the last 8 games Koskinen has been terrible by what you have observed. Of those eight games I would say terrible in two average in four and above average in two. The team won loss record by what you say should be 0 and 8. No team wins with terrible goal tending. There is no intent on my part to pick on your point of view however the results do not back up your statement. I believe as do you that the four year contract for Koskinen was an overpay and the term excessive. I am willing to use the OP positive attitude to give him a chance and not write him off with small sample size.

Kinger_Oil.redux

Georgexs:
Since 05-06,EDM has had the league-worst SV% by its starters. (.906 compared to .911 league average). This matches up nicely with our second-worst P% over the same time (.468).
So how much of the losing is down to bad goaltending and how much to bad hockeying?

Other teams have adjusted the demands they place on starters. They break up their starts so that there aren’t too many long consecutive stretches. Why was it so important to keep playing Koskinen? I don’t get it.

– Teams that don’t win very many games have goalies that let in more goals. I’d be pretty confident that the P% and SV% relationship is pretty strong season over season

– In any stretch a goalie can be lights out. But save Talbot’s season where his strong play coincided with the best roster since 2006, our goalies are bad because they play on bad teams

– Maybe there are a few starts where you’d like Koski to be a little better, but teams that are good: their goalies have more quality starts.

– Koski is the first non-starter that we brought in that was given a proper allocation of games in the pre-season, and was played on a decent schedule for the first few months. And on merit he won the starting role

– Of course, we’ve reverted back to riding one goalie hard, and not giving the back-up chances (the B2B where Koski played in Vegas was dumb)

– So you’ve got a goalie being misused on a bad team…

– We really don’t have a good track record of managing goalies. And you’d like to see some more goalie coach turn-over to see if there are some things other coaches might bring.

– Cary Price couldn’t save the Habs last year, but this year, on a better team he’s “back”. Is Lundqvist bad and old now, or is his team just no longer good? On and on

– Maybe if the team is better, our goalie will be better next year. I don’t see Koski as the reason for why we didn’t make the playoffs. And if Talbot had Koski’s SV% that’s 14 less goals

– Goalies may be voodoo in small samples, but save some exceptions, bad NHL goalies are a result more of bad hockeying over lengthy periods: I’d like to know how to validate this

Glovjuice

leadfarmer:
Who is that Ryan Strome guy and how do we get him on our 3rd line

We traded a right shot solidish 3C for a washed up, slow, AHL winger. You can’t make this shit up.

Reja

OriginalPouzar: Last night, the Oilers were actually coming in waves for about 6-7 shifts right before AHA scores their first goal and the game changed – no it wasn’t an absolutely terrible goal (like a couple later in the game) but it was saveable and he didn’t make the save and the game turned

I seen McDavid and Leon were a scoring threat the other lines were hitting well and working the boards the goal was with 5 minutes left in the first. They’re out of the playoffs it doesn’t bother me they lost what pissed me off was when that kid almost took out McDavid’s knee Cam Neely or Bobby Orr style your on home ice in a nothing game that kid should have been spitting chiclets instead Zero response.

Professor Q

OmJo: Injuries were just one the many issues with the organization during the DoD but in 2009-10 they certainly didn’t help.

Pittsburgh has incredible depth. The Oilers were just a team in the NHL.

IIRC LA has the record with 600-something. Previous record was also by the Kings at 536.

You are quite right, on all accounts. Not the only issue with Edmonton and never really the most man-games lost in an individual season, albeit cumulative over a large period might send warning signals that something is wrong beyond medical.

https://frozenroyalty.net/2011/07/06/retired-la-kings-trainer-pete-demers-recalls-record-breaking-injury-filled-seasons-2001-02-to-2005-06/

Yeah, you were right. The Kings of the 00s were very bad and unlucky. Philadelphia in 2011-12 had 508, in comparison.

OriginalPouzar

Reja: When I watch teams that are playing well they come in waves line after line. when I watch the Oilers play well it’s just means Leon and McDavid or on a even hotter heater our wingers are a embarrassment the new GM has to fix this and fast. To blame Kosh for every loss the past month is not being objective.

Last night, the Oilers were actually coming in waves for about 6-7 shifts right before AHA scores their first goal and the game changed – no it wasn’t an absolutely terrible goal (like a couple later in the game) but it was saveable and he didn’t make the save and the game turned

OmJo

Professor Q: Edmonton has the most games lost to injury in the entire NHL since 2009. Pittsburgh is right behind them in 2nd place (likely due to how Crosby’s injuries have been weighted and stacked, as opposed to total team mayhem like Edmonton) though, so each team has quite a different story to tell.

Pittsburgh has the most team wins in the NHL since 2009, along with 3 Cups victories.

Can’t see back that far but yes, I do actually believe Edmonton had set a single season record during this period, also. Could have been way back then.

Injuries were just one the many issues with the organization during the DoD but in 2009-10 they certainly didn’t help.

Pittsburgh has incredible depth. The Oilers were just a team in the NHL.

IIRC LA has the record with 600-something. Previous record was also by the Kings at 536.

Glovjuice

Lowetide: His injuries are part of the record, certainly part of the concern everyone had on draft day. I have no issue with the young man’s offense, but staying healthy is part of the job. He’s in pro hockey now, in a very tough league. He needs to stay healthy, and he needs to post points at a more rapid clip. Fans have a right to be concerned.

Very risky pick.

Scungilli Slushy

OriginalPouzar: I believe last year I was in favor of signing the likes of Lehner, Halak and Bernier over Koskinen at $2.5M.Hardly “proven incapable” and, in fact, at the time were far more proven than Koskinen, and remain so.

The goalie is 32nd in the NHL at high danger save percentage and 27th at medium danger. He faces less high danger shots per game than Gibson, Lehner, Holtby, Sarros, Rinne, Holtby, etc.

He faces less high danger shots than many goalies performing much better than him.Yes, the team defence can be better but this verbal that he is terrible only because the team is does not seem to fit that numbers, not at even strength.

He has been awful the last 8 straight games with a fully healthy defensive group that is not leaking high danger scoring chances really any more than other teams, by my eye.He’s simply not stopping the puck.

Great points, but stats do not show individual complete D zone breakdowns, and that by my eye the Oilers are certainly in the top 5 or 1st. Total collapse clean shots with time, a couple at least most games, often top end players other teams don’t forget to cover, or cover better.

Edit: This has been the difference for the Oilers. Absolute collapses, and no progress forward out of it as a team. Same inconsistent team play year after year, coaches and players changing.

Reja

v4ance: Koskinen wasn’t the cause of the loss but in fairness, he wasn’t the best goalie that night either.

Hockey is mostly goalie.A hot goalie can turn an average team into a cup contender (Roloson).He can keep teams competitive no matter how thin their rosters (Price with MTL and Hasek with BUF).

Hockey is a team game but a goalie is roughly 80% of the reason for wins/losses. Or when you don’t have one, 100% the reason for the loss…. like last night

When I watch teams that are playing well they come in waves line after line. when I watch the Oilers play well it’s just means Leon and McDavid or on a even hotter heater our wingers are a embarrassment the new GM has to fix this and fast. To blame Kosh for every loss the past month is not being objective.

Scungilli Slushy

Professor Q: Edmonton has the most games lost to injury in the entire NHL since 2009. Pittsburgh is right behind them in 2nd place (likely due to how Crosby’s injuries have been weighted and stacked, as opposed to total team mayhem like Edmonton) though, so each team has quite a different story to tell.

Pittsburgh has the most team wins in the NHL since 2009, along with 3 Cups victories.

Can’t see back that far but yes, I do actually believe Edmonton had set a single season record during this period, also. Could have been way back then.

Which begs the question, over a large sample why is that? The spread should be close and the top and bottom teams closing to the median after a few years, no?

Scungilli Slushy

v4ance: Koskinen wasn’t the cause of the loss but in fairness, he wasn’t the best goalie that night either.

Hockey is mostly goalie.A hot goalie can turn an average team into a cup contender (Roloson).He can keep teams competitive no matter how thin their rosters (Price with MTL and Hasek with BUF).

Hockey is a team game but a goalie is roughly 80% of the reason for wins/losses. Or when you don’t have one, 100% the reason for the loss…. like last night

This is true.

It is also true no goalie is good enough behind a team that is disorganized, shallow, injured, or some combination of those, other than the odd steal.

I think for example “part“ of Price`s collapse was the weak team in front of him, and it rocked him to the core. he was used to being the man, but he couldn`t outplay the managerial incompetence. They are playing better, he is playing better.

But you need a goalie that is competent at least in the first place.

OriginalPouzar

The Dallas OT game was the only game in the last 8 where Koskinen wasn’t bad – he was fine/good – couldn’t be faulted on either of the goals. Khudibbin stole that game.

v4ance

pts2pndr: G
Respectfully he was not the cause of the three two overtime loss to Dallas. In fact the game would not have reached OT if it wasn’t for him. Bottom line is all losses are on the team not on individuals. To single out individuals in a team game is the path to a loser team. There is no I in team. This young team has to learn to play as a team. For management or fans to pile on one player as the cause is for the most part ingenuine.

Koskinen wasn’t the cause of the loss but in fairness, he wasn’t the best goalie that night either.

Hockey is mostly goalie. A hot goalie can turn an average team into a cup contender (Roloson). He can keep teams competitive no matter how thin their rosters (Price with MTL and Hasek with BUF).

Hockey is a team game but a goalie is roughly 80% of the reason for wins/losses. Or when you don’t have one, 100% the reason for the loss…. like last night

OriginalPouzar

JimmyV1965: Are Connolly and Dzingel truly 20-goal scorers?

Dzingel has now done it two years in a row.

I still don’t want to play in that snack-bracket though – I’m looking at guys like Brandon Pirri.

Rebillled

Bruce McCurdy,

That’s what i meant by first full year but either way, after Roloson its been downhill with the exception of ’16 Talbot.

Hard year is right.

Hard decade etc.

Kevin Lowe for another decade? 1998 to 2028 seems about right. Bobby will get tenure soon too. Just wait.

Professor Q

OriginalPouzar,

And we let go of Brossoit for him, which adds to the embers.

Professor Q

OmJo: To be fair, that 2009-10 team had 530 man games lost to injury. Correct me if I’m wrong but that’s the third most in NHL history.

Edmonton has the most games lost to injury in the entire NHL since 2009. Pittsburgh is right behind them in 2nd place (likely due to how Crosby’s injuries have been weighted and stacked, as opposed to total team mayhem like Edmonton) though, so each team has quite a different story to tell.

Pittsburgh has the most team wins in the NHL since 2009, along with 3 Cups victories.

Can’t see back that far but yes, I do actually believe Edmonton had set a single season record during this period, also. Could have been way back then.

OriginalPouzar

pts2pndr: For truth you have been against the hiring of Koskinen from the start believing the team would be better off signing one of the proven incapable tenders available. I too believe there is cause for concern but it is not the end of the world. Changing his angles sligtly and comming out closer to the edge of the paint will rectify the current problem. This is a case of trusting his D to do their job. In my opinion the D as a group have not earned that trust. The goalie is the easy one to blame as he is the last line of defense.

I believe last year I was in favor of signing the likes of Lehner, Halak and Bernier over Koskinen at $2.5M. Hardly “proven incapable” and, in fact, at the time were far more proven than Koskinen, and remain so.

The goalie is 32nd in the NHL at high danger save percentage and 27th at medium danger. He faces less high danger shots per game than Gibson, Lehner, Holtby, Sarros, Rinne, Holtby, etc.

He faces less high danger shots than many goalies performing much better than him. Yes, the team defence can be better but this verbal that he is terrible only because the team is does not seem to fit that numbers, not at even strength.

He has been awful the last 8 straight games with a fully healthy defensive group that is not leaking high danger scoring chances really any more than other teams, by my eye. He’s simply not stopping the puck.

JimmyV1965

Maoriduvpoojt: I do not re-sign Chiasson.

I was looking at Dzingle on a max 5 yrs x $5.25 million and Connolly on a 3yr x $4.25 million deal.My question is, are these reasonable or does the Schmaltz contract change the landscape for 20-25 goal-scorers?

Are Connolly and Dzingel truly 20-goal scorers?

Professor Q

Bruce McCurdy: That was actually his second year that Khabi went 10-32-4 a.k.a. 10-36. In his first year he started just 18 games, got injured in November and never played again while JDDDD took the nets for the rest of the season. It was at that moment that the Oilers decided not to trade for an experience replacement that the decision to tank crystallized in 2009-10.

Didn’t help that the Oilers had three players (Smid, Cogliano, Penner) on that team who they’d traded for Heatley, then hung out to try for a month or so while they grovelled at Dany’s feet.

Also didn’t help that the coaching dream team led by Pat Quinn was so far out of touch that they envisioned J-F Jacques and Patrick O’Sullivan-on-his-wrong-wing as the best choices to be Horcov’s wingers on the shutdown line. It was a hard year.

JD-D and Dubnyk. Pat Quinn for their “rookie” seasons.

I miss Dubnyk. The things this organization puts us through, eh?

Johnny skid

pts2pndr: G
Respectfully he was not the cause of the three two overtime loss to Dallas. In fact the game would not have reached OT if it wasn’t for him. Bottom line is all losses are on the team not on individuals. To single out individuals in a team game is the path to a loser team. There is no I in team. This young team has to learn to play as a team. For management or fans to pile on one player as the cause is for the most part ingenuine.

i very much agree.

pts2pndr

Reja: Talent opportunity and especially confidence for Goaltenders is make or break I was at games where Fuhr let in some weak ones and holy moly some fans were Cruel and Vicious where Moog Ranford didn’t get the same treatment Kosh didn’t cost us a playoff spot in a nothing game last night. Next year is all that matters and he will be our opening day starter barring injury.

G
Respectfully he was not the cause of the three two overtime loss to Dallas. In fact the game would not have reached OT if it wasn’t for him. Bottom line is all losses are on the team not on individuals. To single out individuals in a team game is the path to a loser team. There is no I in team. This young team has to learn to play as a team. For management or fans to pile on one player as the cause is for the most part ingenuine.

pts2pndr

OriginalPouzar: Its riskier to sign a 30 year old goaltender with limited NHL experience and zero success in the NHL to a 3 year contract at fairly big money – on less than 30 games of NHL experience and many more poor games than not.

Basically you just said that they panicked.That doesn’t justify an egregious signing.

Here is hoping he provides absolute value for it through its term – I am hoping and cheering for it but something has to change – performance to this date has not been good.

For truth you have been against the hiring of Koskinen from the start believing the team would be better off signing one of the proven incapable tenders available. I too believe there is cause for concern but it is not the end of the world. Changing his angles sligtly and comming out closer to the edge of the paint will rectify the current problem. This is a case of trusting his D to do their job. In my opinion the D as a group have not earned that trust. The goalie is the easy one to blame as he is the last line of defense.

JimmyV1965

Maoriduvpoojt:
Arizona signs Nick Schmalts to a 7 × $5.85 million for a 20 goal season 1 year ago.Sure he’s young, but does this affect Chiasson, Connolly and Dzingle’s price points?

I had Chiasson at around $2.5 – 3.0 on a 2 year, Connolly on a $4.0 – 5.0 at 4 yrs and $5.5-6.0 x 5 or 6yrs for Dzingle.

Oiler targets IMO would be Connolly & Dzingle (of course these are not possible if Lucic is not moved).

Thoughts?

Every one of these guys are coming off career years. They will all be overpaid at these price points. If we sign UFAs like this it will be a huge mistake.

Scungilli Slushy

LMHF#1: a) Don’t give a damn on either count.

b) Irrelevant.

c) Also irrelevant.

d) Rather subjective.

e) Not their job.

f) Until the Oilers handle a difficult situation competently, I really don’t believe any story from the club going back to Comrie.

Also – it’s own-up time once again…first regarding the obvious pressure-packed trainwreck that was set up for the beginning of the season…a bunch of people denied this somehow.

Second and much, much more ambitiously – who is finally ready to own up to the fact that they defended the reset in approach for this decade that has resulted in not even being able to produce the results of the 96-06 time period. It was wrong from the start and very very few people stood up for that…so many were on board with this idiocy we fans are currently stuck with.

If you mean around here I don’t think so. There are a few that buy whatever Katz is selling, most to me that are regular, reasonable posters may try to see the bright side, but the same problems have been causing the failures and it’s widely acknowledged, despite some variance in how we see individual players.

Inconsistent goalies, unbalanced D, lack of forward depth, abuse of prospects.

pts2pndr

Woodguy v2.0:
Edmonton’s pro evaluation abilities are an active threat to this franchise and its fanbase.

Its the biggest reason this team has missed missed the playoffs 12/13years.

They misevaluate their own players and they misevaluate their trade/UFA targets.

The org has consistently relied on “opinions and eyeballs” for player evaluation and has totally ignored using historical information, aging curves, etc.

Some of the opinions they rely on are eye tests that are years old– “Reinhart was great in the Memorial Cup”

Now that the 4th GM since Sather has failed using “opinions and eyeballs” the CEO of the OEG has publicly stated they just need different “eyeballs and opinions”

Its like he’s running a family owned book store and is looking for someone to run it the exact same way as its always been run and has no idea that a lot of competitors are Amazon, Barnes & Nobel and Chapters.

The org doesn’t even know they can sell books online yet.

Sad but true.

LMHF#1

Alpine:

Didn’t really have an opinion on Gillis until recent discussions. The fact that Stauffer and a bunch of insiders would wet their pants over him being interviewed means he’s a must-interview.

a) Not very media-savvy, the STHs need someone that’s nice to them. Meh.

b) Didn’t get along with Trevor Linden, whom Leavins knows personally. Who cares.

c) Inherited his core from Nonis, like Chia did in Boston. The next Oilers GM doesn’t need to build a core, as much as surround them with right players. Chia mostly succeeded at that in Boston and failed in Edmonton.

d) The Luongo-Schneider situation. Leavins implied turning Schneider into the pick that became Horvat wasn’t impressive because Horvat hasn’t cracked 60 points yet. Weak argument and he didn’t even mention that Markstrom is their current starter.

e) Bad drafting. GMs don’t draft much anyways. Chia wasn’t involved with our drafts much anyways and they turned out fine. The next GM only needs to let Gretzky and Green do their jobs.

f) Screwed the Oilers over in 2007 when he was Nylander’s agent. That happened 12 years ago. Another “who cares” from me.

a) Don’t give a damn on either count.

b) Irrelevant.

c) Also irrelevant.

d) Rather subjective.

e) Not their job.

f) Until the Oilers handle a difficult situation competently, I really don’t believe any story from the club going back to Comrie.

Also – it’s own-up time once again…first regarding the obvious pressure-packed trainwreck that was set up for the beginning of the season…a bunch of people denied this somehow.

Second and much, much more ambitiously – who is finally ready to own up to the fact that they defended the reset in approach for this decade that has resulted in not even being able to produce the results of the 96-06 time period. It was wrong from the start and very very few people stood up for that…so many were on board with this idiocy we fans are currently stuck with.

€√¥£€^$

Alpine: Schmaltz just turned 23 and averaged just under a 50 point rate from 20 to 22 years old. There would be some Kane boost there during his Chicago years, but alas he would not be comparable to the others as a noticeably younger player.

Schmaltz’s comparables would be the likes of Tuch, Drouin, Larkin, Guentzel and any other player who produced at a top six rate during their ELCs.

Dzingel is tough to find a comparison for. He probably comes in close to what Yanni Gourde got, around 5 mil for 6 years. Marchessault got roughly the same and he had better numbers in his two years pre-UFA than Dzingel but he signed in January instead of July. So you’re close on him.

I did comparables for Connolly the other day and came up with Paul Byron, Nick Bonino, Lars Eller, David Perron. All of them got around 4 mil for 4 years, Eller got 3.5 x 5 years. Perron got that after a 60+ point season too. So who knows with Connolly but usually 2nd/3rd line forwards don’t get overpaid or get that close to 5 mil.

Chiasson probably doesn’t get close to 3 mil, but I could see a team giving him 3 years for under 2 mil or 2 years just above 2 mil. I personally wouldn’t go above 1.5 x 2 but there’s other bottom six guys who would be more useful (Oscar Lindberg) or cheaper (Nic Dowd).

Dowd is also on my radar as a 4C.

I’d like to see a roster than keeps the youth in Bakersfield for 1 more year.

Reja

leadfarmer:
Who is that Ryan Strome guy and how do we get him on our 3rd line

The one that scored 14 goals in a 100 games in Oilers silks. The one that Todd never gave a fair shake but Hitch would have. The trade came totally out of the blue wouldn’t surprise me if he quietly asked if possible to get traded back to the NY area.