Show Me The Way To Go Home

by Lowetide

In the end, the 2018-19 Edmonton Oilers were all dressed up with no place to go. In the Game One prelude, I wrote about the season ahead, about the key rookies (Evan Bouchard, Kailer Yamamoto, Ethan Bear) and about the best way to keep score during the dog days:

“It’s still a McDavid/Talbot ‘key to the game’ but the big thing to watch is what happens when 97 is off the ice. Can this team close the gap?”

October 6, 2018
  • McDavid on-ice GF 5-on-5 2017-18: 81-61 (57.04 percent goal share)
  • McDavid off-ice GF 5-on-5 2017-18: 82-115 (41.60 percent goal share)

Here were are, just about one year later. The answer is “yes” but not in the way you’d want it.

  • McDavid on-ice GF 5-on-5 2018-19: 77-75 (50.66 percent goal share)
  • McDavid off-ice GF 5-on-5 2018-19: 67-102 (39.60 percent goal share)

The gap was 15 percent a year ago, the Oilers have crumbled to the point McDavid’s Grand Canyon gap is down to 11 percent. I wrote about this recently at The Athletic, an absolutely vile outcome this season.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group. INSANE NEW OFFER IS HERE!

  • New Lowetide: Will the new GM continue the Oilers aggressive pursuit of college free agents?
  • New Jonathan Willis: Connor McDavid’s frustration should be seen by the Oilers as a warning of possible disaster.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers have another problem to solve: Lifting the cloud over a clearly frustrated Connor McDavid
  • Lowetide: What’s going on with Connor McDavid’s with or without you numbers?
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The four blows that set up the knockout of the Oilers from playoff contention.
  • New Jonathan Willis: The Oilers’ failures of 2018-19 will cost people their careers.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Chipped teeth, playing DJ and lots of Game of Thrones: A week in the life of Darnell Nurse.
  • New Lowetide: Kailer Yamamoto’s first pro season a cause for concern.
  • Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers and the giant talent pool that is the USHL.
  • Lowetide: How the Oilers can shop for a big bang on a small budget
  • Jonathan Willis: How the Oilers can turn their prospect depth into the blueline of a contender.
  • Lowetide: What Mark Hunter’s draft record in Toronto means for his Oilers GM candidacy.
  • Lowetide: The Oilers made a rare move and shopped the QMJHL at the 2018 draft. It could happen again.
  • Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers draft early, the WHL is loaded and there’s a lot of history.
  • Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers and the OHL.

OILERS AFTER 81

  • Oilers in 2015: 31-43-7, 69 points; goal differential -38
  • Oilers in 2016: 46-26-9, 101 points; goal differential +33
  • Oilers in 2017: 35-40-6, 76 points; goal differential -38
  • Oilers in 2018: 34-38-9, 77 points; goal differential -33

OILERS IN APRIL

  • Oilers in April 2016: 1-1-1, three points; goal differential -1
  • Oilers in April 2017: 1-2-0, two points; goal differential -3
  • Oilers in April 2018: 2-1-0, four points; goal differential -2
  • Oilers in April 2019: 0-3-0, zero points; goal differential -7

WHAT TO EXPECT IN APRIL

  • On the road to: Vegas, Colorado (Expected 0-2-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
  • At home to: San Jose (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 0-1-0)
  • On the road to: Calgary (Expected: 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 1-2-1, three points in 4 games
  • Current results: 0-3-0, zero points in 3 games

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

  • Sekera-Benning went 6-8 in 11:33, 3-4 shots, 1-2 goals and 2-1 HDSC. Great pass by Benning on Leon’s second goal, Sekera abandoned what would become the scoring range on the Burns goal (to cover a secondary option) and both men appeared to be doing their jobs on the winner (Nuge had his mark but couldn’t tie up his stick).
  • Nurse-Russell went 14-14 in 16:53, 8-9 shots, no goals and 4-3 HDSC. Nurse made some nice transport sorties but didn’t get much done when he hit the offensive zone. Russell intercepted a pass in the offensive zone, it was a promising moment.
  • Klefbom-Larsson were 9-13 in 12:07, barely qualifying as second pair based on TOI. 4-10 shots, no goals and 2-2 HDSC’s. Larsson was neither door nor window on the Thornton pass, I know that’s a massive degree of difficulty but that’s Larsson’s work place.
  • Anthony Stolarz looked good, stopping 24 of 27, .889.
  • NaturalStatTrick and NHL.com.

FORWARDS, LAST NIGHT

  • Draisaitl-McDavid-Kassian were 8-14 in 11:22, 4-10 shots, 1-2 goals and 2-1 HDSC. Leon was strong all night, although he failed to get the puck out on the first goal against. CMD was brilliant as always, but to my eye hasn’t been himself in terms of rushing the puck lately. Could be injury or by design, but he was more stationary in this game and I don’t think that’s the best deployment.
  • Lucic-Nuge-Chiasson went 5-5 in 9:00, 0-1 goals and 2-1 HDSC. I prefer Gagner on this line, I thought they worked hard but needed more finesse.
  • Rieder-Cave-Rattie went 2-1 in 5:51, 2-1 shots, no goals and one HDSC (from Rattie).
  • Gambardella-Gagner-Currie were 2-4 in 3:49, 2-1 shots, no goals and 0-1 HDSC. Gambardella is an excellent forechecker.

Bob McKenzie’s Lottery Rankings

Bob McKenzie’s lottery rankings are out, there’s some movement among European players and that always happens toward the end of the year. We’ll see even more shuffling of Swedes, Finns and Russians after the April tournaments. Here are Mr. McKenzie’s rankings with mine alongside:

  • McKenzie has Podkolzin about where I have Kaliyev and vice versa, and the Swedes are lower on my list (there won’t be much movement on my list now, will run the numbers one last time before final rankings in early June).
  • My No. 12 player (Cole Caufield) isn’t ranked by BM, but would guess the sniper sits inside the top 20.
  • My list is evil on goalies, so Spencer Knight’s ranking is a clear bias.

This is getting serious now. If the Oilers can get to No. 6 and stay there, we’re talking about a legit driver being available. He won’t arrive in 2019, but by 2020 Edmonton should have a quality Calder candidate. Here’s how things might go if everything stays as it is today.

  1. Colorado: Jack Hughes
  2. Los Angeles: Kaapo Kaako
  3. New Jersey: Bowen Byram
  4. Buffalo: Kirby Dach
  5. Detroit: Alex Turcotte
  6. NY Rangers: Vasili Podkolzin
  7. Edmonton: Dylan Cozens

Cozens would be a nice fit, my guess is that he settles in as an offensive right wing on one of the top two lines and begins his NHL career in 2020.

GLEN SATHER

You can’t write the story of the Oilers without Glen Sather. I remember him first as a utility forward who found his way around many NHL cities. A throwback Toby Petersen without the power-play time.

Sather’s gift was timing (the Oilers were going to be very good based on luck, Nelson Skalbania’s need for cash and Barry Fraser’s early drafts). Sather pushed, bullied and intimidated them to new heights, and they didn’t break (partly because Gretzky-to-Kurri had no answer and partly because Mark Messier was a mythic piece of clay).

Like everyone from Napoleon in Saint Helena to Elvis at Graceland, Sather’s Manhattan coda obscured his early brilliance. There was a man who could evaluate a trade. He didn’t win them all, but he held his own over several decades of shifting sands.

I’ll remember the sneer and I’ll remember the Stanley’s. This city hasn’t walked with the same swagger since he left, despite opportunities that seem boundless. Sail on, Slats. You were an original.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, busy show as we head to the weekend. TSN1260, scheduled to appear:

  • Steve Lansky, BigMouth Sports. Remembering Slats, McDavid’s week, Cole’s goodbye, Blue Jays.
  • Luke Pierce, Edmonton Oil Kings assistant coach. The Oil Kings handled the Hitmen easily during the season, what kind of challenge do they offer in the playoffs?
  • Matt Iwanyk, TSN1260. Does he have more faith in the future or Alberta or the future of the Oilers?
  • The 2019 24 hour charity challenge. Great cause, great time, we’ll tell you all about it (and you can check it out here).

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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YKOil

Lowetide:
YK Oil talking draft is the best kind of deja vu.

Luvs you two LT 🙂

godot10

Kinger_Oil.redux: – if they win after brady then yes. They are a dynasty with the same best player.I would have liked if they kept garafallo and see. They might have a chance to transition because they seem to be on a different level in terms of player procurement and philosophy which is incredible.

– The 49ers has Montana young Garcia (But they didn’t have smooth transitions) so kind of.

Apart from Brady, there have been three somewhat distinct rebuilds during the eighteen years and they are starting on their 4the.

geowal

Andy Dufresne:
“Sail on, Slats. You were an original.”

Sail on ? ……..or Sail in ?…………

I thought I was reading an obituary, so pleased to see he’s at least still kicking.

Wilde

BM’s list has Söderström at a nutty high place imo, but shoutout to SwedishPoster for calling it early.

YKOil

Florida will be a very interesting team to watch (picks at #13 right now).

If they really do want to form Russia on the beach and pick up Bobrovsky and Panarin then I see them dumping Hoffman for sure… and then someone else. Huberdeau was rumoured… maybe Trochek? They aren’t trading Barkov. Dadonov is an option but he fits the Russia theme so I don’t know.

I would be in constant communication with Florida right now, can’t have another Niederreiter slip through our fingers.

YKOil

pts2pndr: So would Tomasino be a bad choice?The more I research this the more he seems like the best choice. He will not be an instant fix but seems to be the best long term answer.

As an early choice – yes. He is rated where he is for a reason so if he is your preferred pick then use that to your advantage.

Soderstrom should be available in the range of picks 9-13
Kaliyev should be available in the range of picks 12-18
Tomasino should be available in the range of picks 20-28
Knight should be available in the range of picks 20-31

So if the Oilers are picking 7th they have decent trade back options like so:

Soderstrom … picks 9-11 … 2-4 spots … VAN, PHI, MIN and CHI or FLA
Kaliyev … 11-14 … 4-7 spots … MIN, CHI, FLA, ARI
Tomasino … 18-22 … 11-15 spots … ?
Knight … 20-26 … 13-19 spots … ?

Most teams are looking for offense now so I don’t see any of the four teams listed picking Soderstrom over the forwards listed ahead of him.

Same deal with Tomasino – I don’t really see him going sooner than #15 if BM’s list is a guide. So if Tomasino really is your guy and another team really wants Zegras then maybe they send you a 2nd and pick up Manning for your troubles. You get Tomasino, a 2nd and a Cap dump.

Pretty good reads here:

https://lastwordonhockey.com/2018/05/30/draft-pick-value-charts/

http://donttellmeaboutheart.blogspot.com/2014/11/nhl-draft-pick-value-chart.html

https://www.broadstreethockey.com/2013/4/25/4262594/nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up

I think the Flyers fan’s work is closer to correct (you may have noticed that).

For me, my options REALLY open up AFTER my top-5 are gone – need someone to take Podkolzin early to have any sort of chance. Again, noting that I really know nothing about how the players scout out, I have at least two guys that I have little issue picking in the 20-22 spots (Tomasino and Knight) so that is a nice landing spot for me IF I can snag an extra pick and dump Manning.

who

who:
Great thread yesterday. I really enjoyed, and agreed with, the post from Frjohn.
I am very interested in roster building models and how they apply to the Oilers.
I try to place players in groups of importance. Something like this.

Untouchables- should be self explanatory
McDavid, Draisaitl

Core players- youngish veterans you would like to keep around for a long time
Nuge, Larrson, Klefbom, Nurse

Support players on cheap contracts- clearly we need more of these guys. Gaping hole.
Khaira, Kassian, Benning

Support players on expensive contracts- Usefulplayers but may be overpaid
Gagner, Russell, Sekera

2019 prospects- players that could help starting next year, large group here.
JP, Benson, Marody, Jones, Lagesson, Bear, Persson

Tweeners- might hang on as 4th liners or 7D types but don’t offer much
Cave, Gambordela, Currie, Brodziak

2020 prospects-
Bouchard, Samarukov, Marino, Berglund, Yamamoto, Mcleod, Maksimov

Cap anchors- gotta try and move these using any reasonable method possible. Not sure it’s possible.
Lucic, Manning

Gotta add to the top 3 groups here.
And we can’t be trading from the top 2 until we have replacements ready to step in.
More pain to come next year, by the looks of it.
On the other hand, if two or three of the 2019 prospects establish themselves, it may only take a year or two to become a playoff team.

Just wanted to expand on my two groups of prospects for 2019 and 2020.
If you were a betting man how many of these guys make it? And how many become core players? Support players? Tweeners? I would guess none of them become untouchables.
I will start by separating them into groups of defenseman and forwards and then making 2 tiers in each group.
Jones, Bouchard and Samarukov are my top tier of dmen. I think all 3 have the tools to have long NHL careers. Maybe one becomes a core guy and the other 2 become support players? So say Bouchard is core and the other two are support? I think that’s realistic, maybe even a bit pessimistic.
From the rest of the dman, can we assume 1 support player and 2 tweeners?
So in 2 years our defense looks something like this
Klefbom Larsson
Nurse Bouchard
Samarukov Jones
Lagesson
That looks pretty solid to me. And should be pretty affordable.

The forwards don’t look quite as rosey
My top tier would be JP, Benson and Yamamoto. I think 1 becomes core, 1 becomes support and 1 becomes a tweener. JP core, Benson support, Yamamoto tweener?
Out of the rest let’s say Mcleod becomes the support player and the rest are tweeners.
So the forward group looks something like this
Drai McDavid Kassian
Benson Nuge JP
Khaira Mcleod ?
? ? ?
? ?
That’s a lot of question marks up front. Only 4 core forwards with 2 support players in the top 6. Only 2 other support players on roster. The good news is that there should be cap room to fill in some blanks with some UFA’s. Maybe I am being pessimistic, but there is no question, we are thin at forward.
Kinda of a fun, yet sobering, exercise to see where we are at.

Gerta Rauss

ANA wins in regulation

Oilers will finish in 7th position unless NYR gets both points in PIT tomorrow and the Oilers lose in regulation in Calgary

Glovjuice

Caller Zen: So you’re saying McDavid is playing his last game as an Edmonton Oiler tomorrow night?

This post by OP is the canary in the coal mine – it’s over – it’s done.

pts2pndr

leadfarmer: People always say that.Just hit Johnny Hockey. Oh just put the body on Johnny Hockey.
How has no one thought of it that?
Do you realize how tough that actually is.
People have been trying to get physical on Gaudreau for 5 season.It’s impossibleHe is crazy elusive.

B.S. if the refs look the other way like they do with Connor Johnny Cockey is a non factor!

pts2pndr

YKOil:
Sans any advanced scouting knowledge and just going off what I read, my two cents pays for:

Hughes
Kakko
Cozens
Byram
Dach

So hoping one of those falls to the Oilers at 7 (I suspect).I expect we end up with one of Turcotte/Zegras/Boldy and really don’t have any dislikes there.

If I am looking to trade down I like:

Soderstrom
Kaliyev
Tomasino
Knight

Love Mads Sogaard for the 3rd round (2nd round if trading down).

So would Tomasino be a bad choice? The more I research this the more he seems like the best choice. He will not be an instant fix but seems to be the best long term answer.

Glovjuice

OriginalPouzar:
I am in no way advocating for this and I’m not actually concerned about it happening but which of these makes our team better tomorrow:

McDavid

OR

Nathan MacCinnon, Hughes, Girard (or Barrie if they choose), 1st rounder

b

leadfarmer

OriginalPouzar:
I am in no way advocating for this and I’m not actually concerned about it happening but which of these makes our team better tomorrow:

McDavid

OR

Nathan MacCinnon, Hughes, Girard (or Barrie if they choose), 1st rounder

I don’t think the difference between Mcdavid and McKinnon is Hughes Girard and a 1st. Those three together would get a great player

Caller Zen

OriginalPouzar:
I am in no way advocating for this and I’m not actually concerned about it happening but which of these makes our team better tomorrow:

McDavid

OR

Nathan MacCinnon, Hughes, Girard (or Barrie if they choose), 1st rounder

So you’re saying McDavid is playing his last game as an Edmonton Oiler tomorrow night? 😉

Glovjuice

jake70: Erase Steve Smith goal and Gretzky trade….man. 7, 8 in a row??

Wasn’t that goal game 7 by Smith though ? The only chink in your argument.

leadfarmer

Woodguy v2.0: Due to the draft and RFA system in the NHL a player spends many years in their drafted city unless they get moved etc.

People put down roots fast.

Especially if they marry local.

These guys travel year round to these other locations so they get tempted. Getting married to a local girl is really the only shot that is likely to succeed

Glovjuice

hunter1909: Perfecto!

And Nirvana is to Creed.

Glovjuice

hunter1909: Perfecto!

I was gonna say more gorgeous – already done.

OriginalPouzar

who: I have him at the front of the 2019 prospects. Like any prospect, I guess we still don’t know what he is.
Never thought to rate Koskinen. I don’t pretend to understand goalies. If I had to say, I guess I would put him with the supporting players that may be overpaid. Don’t think I would call him an anchor contract just yet. Talk to me after next year though.
Seems to me we are committed to him, for next year at least.

Sorry, I missed the JP slotting.

Glovjuice

hunter1909: Sather’s past it, but it’s unfair to lump him in with the OBC.

Slats MADE the OBC. Without Slats there would have been no Dynasty.

If you were around when Sather worked his stuff you would still be marvelling at his trade deadline acquisitions. Every year he’d trade off whatever he wanted to lose and receive not only value back but often 2X 3X back in return.

Simply put, Slats was a hockey genius.

The OBC on the other hand, are proven losers at anything other than their time playing under Sather. They’re like punchy old boxing trainers trying their hand at MMA, wondering why their fighters keep getting KO’d.

Gorgeous

Professor Q

OriginalPouzar:
I am in no way advocating for this and I’m not actually concerned about it happening but which of these makes our team better tomorrow:

McDavid

OR

Nathan MacKinnon, Hughes, Girard, 1st rounder

Yes, I do think the second option does. Nathan is even a RHS.

But I still don’t like it.

MacKinnon would also have to duke it out with Draisaitl over #29. Not good.

OriginalPouzar

I am in no way advocating for this and I’m not actually concerned about it happening but which of these makes our team better tomorrow:

McDavid

OR

Nathan MacCinnon, Hughes, Girard (or Barrie if they choose), 1st rounder

Professor Q

Glovjuice: Seeing all the adult males wearing McDavid jerseys at Oilers games like children cracks me up. Only kids should wear jerseys. Totally goofy.

That’s a bit sexist. Plenty of women and those in between or not of either also wear jerseys and supportive uniforms. With a variety of names and for a variety of reasons.

It’s a part of being part of a collective group (ie. Fandom).

Professor Q

Kinger_Oil.redux: – if they win after brady then yes. They are a dynasty with the same best player.I would have liked if they kept garafallo and see. They might have a chance to transition because they seem to be on a different level in terms of player procurement and philosophy which is incredible.

– The 49ers has Montana young Garcia (But they didn’t have smooth transitions) so kind of.

The Patriots did get to the SB a few times prior to Brady, to be fair. Maybe the way was already there and the arrival of Belichick set it off even further, with Brady being the second catalyst? Plus, they have had stages.

Early Dynasty: Phenomenal D saves mediocre O

Middle Dynasty: Phenomenal O sets records (but the Manning brothers would be the bane of both victory and record keeping)

Late Dynasty: Tactics and strategy and experience make up for lack of stars on all sides of the ball

Manning to Luck? Favre to Rodgers? Baltimore D to Baltimore D (QBs not important…and as a Browns fan I loathe them regardless)?

Scungilli Slushy

Woodguy v2.0: Due to the draft and RFA system in the NHL a player spends many years in their drafted city unless they get moved etc.

People put down roots fast.

Especially if they marry local.

The drafting team is a love affair for the player, until the team is a proven bad partner. It’s a mulligan the Oilers don’t use. JP wants to come back we have read here, up to the team. Time to be a good partner.

I’d trade anyone but Connor, but for Burger’s sake no more trading low.

Glovjuice

hunter1909: Excursions out in the “Real World” wondering whether or not I’m going to get laughed at when I pull out my non-smart phone. Trying to construct something to last 200 years out of paper mache.

That kind of stuff lol plus drinking Guinness at a Hard Core bar, the kind where tourists tread at their peril, and fear and loathing abound.

The thing is, as a child I’d have never been an Oilers fan. No way would i support anything that sucks so bad and imagine the Oilers aren’t exactly developing a future loyal fan base today among Edmonton’s youth.

Dollar Bill Daryl Katz has got 15,000 Tier 1 suckers hooked on his insane product. These suckers park their former intelligence at the door because they sure as hell aren’t getting their money’s worth.

Seeing all the adult males wearing McDavid jerseys at Oilers games like children cracks me up. Only kids should wear jerseys. Totally goofy.

Scungilli Slushy

‘With one game left to play, Carey Price has faced 965 passes to the slot this season, far more than any other goalie in the league. One rough month has obfuscated just how dominant he’s been this season for the Canadiens.’ Sportsnet

Goalies need to make saves. The Oilers haven’t had that type of goalie for yonks.

This is particularly why an analytics dept is so critical.

The eyeballs can go look at a goalie the GM is considering, and if competent get it rightish, but eyeballs have a harder time scouring the planet finding the unseen gems.

Analytics can point to them, and then the eyeballs can go look, not meaning 450 scouts on the payroll to be solid n this compared to the league.

A normal part of big business, no? Except the Oilers right now.

Kinger_Oil.redux

hunter1909: New England Patriots say hello Kinger!

– if they win after brady then yes. They are a dynasty with the same best player. I would have liked if they kept garafallo and see. They might have a chance to transition because they seem to be on a different level in terms of player procurement and philosophy which is incredible.

– The 49ers has Montana young Garcia (But they didn’t have smooth transitions) so kind of.

Woodguy v2.0

leadfarmer: Flames can just roll their lines, avs don’t have that kind of depth.Avs need 950 goalering or 850 goalering from the Flames to even have a chance

That’s not all that improbable.

Since March 1:

Smith .908
Grubauer .952

CGY is the fav and they should be.

I don’t mind taking COL as a dog here if the odds are good though.

Woodguy v2.0

leadfarmer:
Woodguy v2.0,

People move to warm climates no matter the jobs they have.Sure it’s not everybody but overall people havebeen taking their skills to where the sun is warm and beaches are nice.
Doesn’t matter if you are a computer programmer or a hockey player.
Also moving to Canada for a lot of Americans is a near equivalent to a banishment to Siberia.

Due to the draft and RFA system in the NHL a player spends many years in their drafted city unless they get moved etc.

People put down roots fast.

Especially if they marry local.

who

OriginalPouzar: I do like that breakdown – well done.

Where does Puljujuarvi get slotted?2019 prospect?

Importantly, where does Koskinen get slotted? Could be anchor contract or support player that’s too expensive, except, he doesn’t really fit in to either b/c he’s such an important player.

I have him at the front of the 2019 prospects. Like any prospect, I guess we still don’t know what he is.
Never thought to rate Koskinen. I don’t pretend to understand goalies. If I had to say, I guess I would put him with the supporting players that may be overpaid. Don’t think I would call him an anchor contract just yet. Talk to me after next year though.
Seems to me we are committed to him, for next year at least.

Woodguy v2.0

Pouzar: Odd…thought he was fast and powerful out there.

The knock on him, at least from what I’ve read, was his defensive game. Manson has helped considerably in this area. I thought he was best dman on the ice Wed.

https://www.nhl.com/oilers/news/condors-recipe-for-success/c-304759604

Day was challenged by Assistant Coach Dave Manson defensively earlier in the campaign, and Lagesson has helped with that part of his game.

“I can be like, ‘I need a little help with this guy (in the defensive zone),’” Day, the former Endicott College defenceman, said of Lagesson. “We know where each other will be.”

ALL CONDORSTOWN CONTENT

Lagesson’s believed to own more offensive upside, which is only improving alongside Day.

“He’s a really good offensive Dman,” Lagesson said, “so playing with him you see what he’s doing and can learn.”

Over the Condors’ 12-game stretch, the club has outscored their opposition 56-23. Lagesson and Day have made an impact on both sides of the ice during the streak, accruing 17 points combined and going plus-16.

“They are two excellent hockey players for us,” Condor Head Coach Jay Woodcroft began. “William’s been a good complement to Logan. The growth in his game has also been a fantastic storyline.

“And what a find for this organization to find Logan Day out of Division III college hockey. To see the growth in his game working under the tutelage of Dave Manson and learning how to defend in a man’s league has been excellent.”

Great stuff.

Thanks.

Woodguy v2.0

Pouzar: Couldn’t agree more. Very attainable with a competent analytics and scouting staff.

EDIT: Not asking for much am I

Asking for industry level competence of the Oilers has been a big ask for a decade.

Woodguy v2.0

Georgexs:
The Larsson numbers for the season are more interesting/alarming than the CMD numbers.

Larsson @ 5v5

Season, GF-GA, +/- (+/- of team)

16-17, 71-55, +16 (+26)
17-18, 48-48, 0 (-13)
18-19, 45-76, -31 (-33)

That’s not good.

Let’s break down Larsson’s numbers this season:

Coach, GF-GA, +/- (+/- of team)

TMac, 14-17, -3 (-6)
Hitch, 31-59, -28 (-27)

Not looking good at all under Hitch. The team was +1 with Larsson off the ice and -28 when he was on the ice.

Let’s break the Hitch period into pre-injured Klef (PRE), injured Klef (INJ), and back from injury Klef to now (NOW).

Period, GF-GA, +/- (+/- of team)

PRE, 8-6, +2 (+6)
INJ, 14-27, -13 (-14)
NOW, 9-26, -17 (-19)

Things started well but Larsson’s numbers have been dismal since the Klefbom injury, both during the injury and after. Our losing at 5v5 has basically been happening with Larsson (our 1 RD) on the ice. We’ve been losing even when CMD is out there with him.

The Klef injury effect is settling down under Hitch. His record with Klef in the lineup is, I think, 19-16-5, a sub 90 point pace if he loses his last game. You’d also have to allow for Hitch having Sek while TMac didn’t if you’re going to make distinctions.

But I don’t want to. Our two most recent coaches seem very similar. TMac did a world of damage to this franchise by determining how the franchise assessed its roster. Hitch has now done his part too. Larsson was one of LT’s guesses for which players will be moved in the summer.

The Oilers can’t possibly win a trade in the off season. They’re just too vulnerable. The only one they can win is the one they’re dreading, the one involving CMD. Because it’ll be an auction and in auctions some bidder can be expected to lose his mind. Winning in this way would feel exactly like losing. But, that’s OK. We know how THAT feels.

Trading players who have had a bad season after 3 good ones isn’t usually a good idea.

Oilers do it all the time.

Hall, Eberle and Strome are the last 3 that come to mind.

Pouzar

Ben:
Bouchard and Samorukov 2nd and 3rd stars, respectively.

May I also I add I was impressed with Samorukov in my one live viewing of him in the “A” last year.
I think he obviously took a lot of confidence from that short stint into this season.

Glovjuice

hunter1909: It’s hard to put on a positive spin when there’s a KLowe+MacT sized meteor hurtling toward earth.

It’s Melancholia Soilers style.

Pouzar

Woodguy v2.0: Oiler have a lot of below replacement players in spots.

Getting better in all but ~4 of them isn’t a big deal.

That might be enough to get them in playoffs next year.

Need to fix the PK too.Good Christ its bad.

Getting this team to a playoff team doesn’t require a ton of value, just some clear thinking.

Won’t cost high end futures that work for the future.

Couldn’t agree more. Very attainable with a competent analytics and scouting staff.

EDIT: Not asking for much am I

Pouzar

Woodguy v2.0: Good skater?

I heard that was the knock on him.

I have no idea and am asking for info.

Odd…thought he was fast and powerful out there.

The knock on him, at least from what I’ve read, was his defensive game. Manson has helped considerably in this area. I thought he was best dman on the ice Wed.

https://www.nhl.com/oilers/news/condors-recipe-for-success/c-304759604

Day was challenged by Assistant Coach Dave Manson defensively earlier in the campaign, and Lagesson has helped with that part of his game.

“I can be like, ‘I need a little help with this guy (in the defensive zone),'” Day, the former Endicott College defenceman, said of Lagesson. “We know where each other will be.”

ALL CONDORSTOWN CONTENT

Lagesson’s believed to own more offensive upside, which is only improving alongside Day.

“He’s a really good offensive Dman,” Lagesson said, “so playing with him you see what he’s doing and can learn.”

Over the Condors’ 12-game stretch, the club has outscored their opposition 56-23. Lagesson and Day have made an impact on both sides of the ice during the streak, accruing 17 points combined and going plus-16.

“They are two excellent hockey players for us,” Condor Head Coach Jay Woodcroft began. “William’s been a good complement to Logan. The growth in his game has also been a fantastic storyline.

“And what a find for this organization to find Logan Day out of Division III college hockey. To see the growth in his game working under the tutelage of Dave Manson and learning how to defend in a man’s league has been excellent.”

OriginalPouzar

I noticed that Vaxjo has announced their list of players that will not be returning next year and it includes Joel Persson.

No real surprise here as we know he was coming over for camp.

I’ve always had a bit of trepidation regarding what he would (will) do if the organisation wants him to spend some time in the minors and if he’d maybe head back home. Getting the one-way contract was important and a good thing because, now that he’d make his full NHL salary while in Bakersfield, I think this is less of an issue ($1M would be much greater than he’d make back home I believe).

Scungilli Slushy

ArmchairGM:
Lots of talk on the interwebs about the Oilers trying to acquire a guy like Andreas Jonsson. But when I looked at his 23-year-old season it doesn’t look any better than Benson’s 20-year-old season. Does anybody else see this? Are we underestimating our prospects? I don’t see why we should pay through the nose for a guy like Johnsson.

Let the farm produce.

Until the team is functional bringing in ‘help’ won’t help. See: Reider.

Keep the decent players like Reider and bring those ready up, get a modern coach and fire the top end into the sun.

OEG is huge, there is no reason the boys on the bus can’t be around and also not do important hockey things anymore. That’s what happens in other orgs when it doesn’t work out and there are legacy ‘greats’ in the fold.

OriginalPouzar

STARS OF THE GAME

FIRST
Kevin Hancock
#16
London

SECOND
Evan Bouchard
#2
London

THIRD
Dmitri Samorukov
#5
Guelph

OriginalPouzar

who:
Great thread yesterday. I really enjoyed, and agreed with, the post from Frjohn.
I am very interested in roster building models and how they apply to the Oilers.
I try to place players in groups of importance. Something like this.

Untouchables- should be self explanatory
McDavid, Draisaitl

Core players- youngish veterans you would like to keep around for a long time
Nuge, Larrson, Klefbom, Nurse

Support players on cheap contracts- clearly we need more of these guys. Gaping hole.
Khaira, Kassian, Benning

Support players on expensive contracts- Usefulplayers but may be overpaid
Gagner, Russell, Sekera

2019 prospects- players that could help starting next year, large group here.
JP, Benson, Marody, Jones, Lagesson, Bear, Persson

Tweeners- might hang on as 4th liners or 7D types but don’t offer much
Cave, Gambordela, Currie, Brodziak

2020 prospects-
Bouchard, Samarukov, Marino, Berglund, Yamamoto, Mcleod, Maksimov

Cap anchors- gotta try and move these using any reasonable method possible. Not sure it’s possible.
Lucic, Manning

Gotta add to the top 3 groups here.
And we can’t be trading from the top 2 until we have replacements ready to step in.
More pain to come next year, by the looks of it.
On the other hand, if two or three of the 2019 prospects establish themselves, it may only take a year or two to become a playoff team.

I do like that breakdown – well done.

Where does Puljujuarvi get slotted? 2019 prospect?

Importantly, where does Koskinen get slotted? Could be anchor contract or support player that’s too expensive, except, he doesn’t really fit in to either b/c he’s such an important player.

Ben

Bouchard and Samorukov 2nd and 3rd stars, respectively.

OriginalPouzar

Samorukov with his second assist of the night as Guelph cuts the lead to one with 10 to go – now about 3 min left.

Professor Q

Psyche:
Does anyone know if Chiarelli’s brother (Michael) is stilled employed by the Oilers as a scout? I saw him listed on the Oilers staff on NHL.com, which I was reviewing after Gregor stated they will relieve the final two pro scouts (Messier and one other).

They are then completely revamping the scouting departments, and hopefully adding more than one or two staff members in that department?

That could be good, if they relieve the higher ups as well.

Psyche

Does anyone know if Chiarelli’s brother (Michael) is stilled employed by the Oilers as a scout? I saw him listed on the Oilers staff on NHL.com, which I was reviewing after Gregor stated they will relieve the final two pro scouts (Messier and one other).

Ben

NYR get a point at least; dream of 6 is alive.

who

Great thread yesterday. I really enjoyed, and agreed with, the post from Frjohn.
I am very interested in roster building models and how they apply to the Oilers.
I try to place players in groups of importance. Something like this.

Untouchables- should be self explanatory
McDavid, Draisaitl

Core players- youngish veterans you would like to keep around for a long time
Nuge, Larrson, Klefbom, Nurse

Support players on cheap contracts- clearly we need more of these guys. Gaping hole.
Khaira, Kassian, Benning

Support players on expensive contracts- Useful players but may be overpaid
Gagner, Russell, Sekera

2019 prospects- players that could help starting next year, large group here.
JP, Benson, Marody, Jones, Lagesson, Bear, Persson

Tweeners- might hang on as 4th liners or 7D types but don’t offer much
Cave, Gambordela, Currie, Brodziak

2020 prospects-
Bouchard, Samarukov, Marino, Berglund, Yamamoto, Mcleod, Maksimov

Cap anchors- gotta try and move these using any reasonable method possible. Not sure it’s possible.
Lucic, Manning

Gotta add to the top 3 groups here.
And we can’t be trading from the top 2 until we have replacements ready to step in.
More pain to come next year, by the looks of it.
On the other hand, if two or three of the 2019 prospects establish themselves, it may only take a year or two to become a playoff team.