Game 82 2018-19: Oilers at Flames

by Lowetide

Among Tabernac Saturdays, this one has several extra cruel points. Playing provincial rivals in their barn, while knowing the game result has no impact on either team’s future. At 11 tonight, Edmonton goes home, a miserable season reaching its merciful end. Calgary? Playoffs start next week. It is, all told, a rueful Tabernac Saturday.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group. INSANE NEW OFFER IS HERE!

  • New Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers, the republic of Finland and the 2019 draft.
  • New Lowetide: Will the new GM continue the Oilers aggressive pursuit of college free agents?
  • New Jonathan Willis: Connor McDavid’s frustration should be seen by the Oilers as a warning of possible disaster.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers have another problem to solve: Lifting the cloud over a clearly frustrated Connor McDavid
  • Lowetide: What’s going on with Connor McDavid’s with or without you numbers?
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The four blows that set up the knockout of the Oilers from playoff contention.
  • New Jonathan Willis: The Oilers’ failures of 2018-19 will cost people their careers.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Chipped teeth, playing DJ and lots of Game of Thrones: A week in the life of Darnell Nurse.
  • New Lowetide: Kailer Yamamoto’s first pro season a cause for concern.
  • Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers and the giant talent pool that is the USHL.
  • Lowetide: How the Oilers can shop for a big bang on a small budget
  • Jonathan Willis: How the Oilers can turn their prospect depth into the blueline of a contender.
  • Lowetide: What Mark Hunter’s draft record in Toronto means for his Oilers GM candidacy.
  • Lowetide: The Oilers made a rare move and shopped the QMJHL at the 2018 draft. It could happen again.
  • Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers draft early, the WHL is loaded and there’s a lot of history.
  • Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers and the OHL.

OILERS AFTER 82

  • Oilers in 2015: 31-43-8, 70 points; goal differential -38
  • Oilers in 2016: 47-26-9, 103 points; goal differential +36
  • Oilers in 2017: 36-40-6, 78 points; goal differential -38
  • Oilers in 2018: 34-38-9, 77 points; goal differential -33

OILERS IN APRIL

  • Oilers in April 2016: 1-1-2, four points; goal differential -1
  • Oilers in April 2017: 2-2-0, four points; goal differential 0
  • Oilers in April 2018: 3-1-0, six points; goal differential -2
  • Oilers in April 2019: 0-3-0, zero points; goal differential -7

WHAT TO EXPECT IN APRIL

  • On the road to: Vegas, Colorado (Expected 0-2-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
  • At home to: San Jose (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 0-1-0)
  • On the road to: Calgary (Expected: 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 1-2-1, three points in 4 games
  • Current results: 0-3-0, zero points in 3 games

A CONVERSATION

TONIGHT

  • Leon scoring 50 would be good for the soul.
  • Tobias Rieder scoring tonight would be a nice bonus.
  • Vancouver, Ottawa and Montreal join Edmonton on the outside.
  • Much of Canada will hate watch Calgary, Toronto and build resentment toward Winnipeg. Hey, I’m just telling the truth.
  • Josh Currie got sent back to Bakersfield. I’m thinking of running playoff GDT’s. Thoughts?
  • For some reason, the Connor McDavid comments are still lingering. It might have something to do with media, who keep bringing it up day after day. So, allow me to bring it up today.
  • Connor McDavid didn’t come to Edmonton to fail. He committed to eight years after previously committing to three. That’s 11 years! Longer than many marriages. Calm your tits.

ARTHUR KALIYEV

I went another round with a reader on Kaliyev yesterday. It wasn’t an angry exchange, more a curio. I think Kaliyev is miscast as a one dimensional power play option, a perimeter player who is lucky to get his points (Steve Shutt had the same rep btw).

Kaliyev is a talented 5-on-5 player. In fact, according to prospect-stats.com, he is a close second in the OHL (U18, over 20 games) with a 0.70 primary points-per-game total. He leads draft eligible players in the category.

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godot10

Professor Q: I would imagine that when a team wins, their balls come out. Fewer teams in the draw = chances increase each time a spot has been won.

No all the balls go back it. Because their are only 14 balls. But if Team A wins the first lottery, if they win the second lottery too, the second result is ignored, and they draw a new set of 4 balls.

14 choose 4 is 1001, which is why they choose 14 balls. It is easy to set the probabilities. One combination is allocated to nobody.

Round 1) There is only one ineligible combination…a 1 in 1001 probability that they will have to draw 4 balls twice.
Round 2) There is that same one ineligible combination plus all the combinations from the first round winner. So there is a higher probability that an ineligible combination comes up, and they have to draw a second time.
Round 3) There is the same one ineligible combination, plus all the combinations from the winner of round 1 and round 2 become ineligible.

godot10

Professor Q: He turned his head to look right at Connor’s legs, and then changed his direction that he was going to fall into them. Even put his elbow into a bit.

It was intentional.

Giordano was channelling his inner Denis Potvin,or Chris Pronger. i.e. If you are beat, you always do something to imprint a memory for next time. A trip, an elbow, a slash.

Scungilli Slushy

Pouzar:
LadiesloveSmid,

I believe you asking about Bowen the other day…here is a tweet of a question I asked Simon B
————————————————————————————-
Simon Boisvert@simonsnake70Mar 20

According to The Hockey News annual rankings of drafted prospects not yet in the NHL, Cale Makar & Quinn Hughes are # 1 and 2.

Vaughn Woodruff@conkanen
More
Replying to @simonsnake70

Do you think Bowen is anywhere near as good as these two? Cheers

Simon Boisvert@simonsnake70Mar 20
More
Replying to @conkanen
No. I like Byram a lot, but I don’t necessarily see him in the same category.

This doesn’t make sense. Byram is crushing the WHL offensively, makar didn’t even play in the dub. Byram has a strong 200 ft game. Sounds like a crush on makar to me.

Scungilli Slushy

Professor Q: He turned his head to look right at Connor’s legs, and then changed his direction that he was going to fall into them. Even put his elbow into a bit.

It was intentional.

He took his legs out for sure. Even if he ‘didn’t mean to hurt him’ Giordano now has two kneeing incidents and this and that’s just off the top of my head.

At the very best he’s out of control and dangerous. He can safely be considered a hack in the same personal class category as Wison. Perhaps he’s hoping for Matt Cooke status before he retires.

He doesn’t have a shot at the Bertuzzi level because he doesn’t have the stones to fight.

Pouzar

LadiesloveSmid,

I believe you asking about Bowen the other day…here is a tweet of a question I asked Simon B
————————————————————————————-
Simon Boisvert@simonsnake70 Mar 20

According to The Hockey News annual rankings of drafted prospects not yet in the NHL, Cale Makar & Quinn Hughes are # 1 and 2.

Vaughn Woodruff@conkanen
More
Replying to @simonsnake70

Do you think Bowen is anywhere near as good as these two? Cheers

Simon Boisvert@simonsnake70
Mar 20
More
Replying to @conkanen
No. I like Byram a lot, but I don’t necessarily see him in the same category.

OriginalPouzar

Professor Q: I would imagine that when a team wins, their balls come out. Fewer teams in the draw = chances increase each time a spot has been won.

Higher placing teams have lower percentages of winning, thus “fewer balls” to start. So if they win, fewer balls come out and chances are raised a little bit. If a lower ranked team wins, they have more balls in initially, so more balls (or a greater percentage chunk) come out and the remaining teams’ chances increase more substantially than if a higher ranked team had won.

You also have one fewer team, so that 100% will be divided up differently anyway.

As for actual numbers, though…

Let’s just wait until Tuesday and see if we get Hughes, Kakko, Dach, Cozens, Krebs, one of the Russians, or Byram.

No, this is not how the lottery works – 5 balls are selected with numbers between 1 and 9 to make a 9 digit code – that code will have been previously assigned to a non-playoff team. Ottawa will have the most codes (Colorado)

ArmchairGM

Bulging Twine:
If the Oilers stay at 7
and if the draft follows McKenzies survey
they will get one of the Americans who are grouped together:

Turcotte
Zegras
Boldy

I wouldn’t be displeased with that result. And there’s always a chance someone drops – although I’m not convinced any of the 3-6 ranked players will have a better career than Turcotte. Personally I favour Cozens, but even then Turcotte may end up the better player.

Pouzar

Unreal. I come home late last night to this news. Of course this was the only way this disaster of a season could end. Gord upstairs really hates us.

Bulging Twine

If the Oilers stay at 7
and if the draft follows McKenzies survey
they will get one of the Americans who are grouped together:

Turcotte
Zegras
Boldy

gn68

JOFA:
It looked exactly like knee to me.

It sure did
Unfortunately the way he hit and his reaction after looks like an ligament injury probably ACL

Professor Q

deardylan:
Was Drai shot going in when Flames D batted it out of the air?

Say, now that I think of it. I’m pretty sure the rule is if you use a stick to block an EN Goal, the goal is automatically awarded (if it’s a breakaway or penalty etc.).

Professor Q

Bulging Twine:
“The odds for the remaining teams will increase on a proportionate basis for the 2nd Lottery Draw, based on which club wins the 1st Lottery Draw, and again for the 3rd Lottery Draw, based on which club wins the 2nd Lottery Draw.”

What do they mean exactly by proportionate basis?Mathematically what does that mean?

I would imagine that when a team wins, their balls come out. Fewer teams in the draw = chances increase each time a spot has been won.

Higher placing teams have lower percentages of winning, thus “fewer balls” to start. So if they win, fewer balls come out and chances are raised a little bit. If a lower ranked team wins, they have more balls in initially, so more balls (or a greater percentage chunk) come out and the remaining teams’ chances increase more substantially than if a higher ranked team had won.

You also have one fewer team, so that 100% will be divided up differently anyway.

As for actual numbers, though…

Let’s just wait until Tuesday and see if we get Hughes, Kakko, Dach, Cozens, Krebs, one of the Russians, or Byram.

Professor Q

HT Joe:
So, anyone still planning on cheering for these Flames in the playoffs?
(I’m going to boo them until they get eliminated… just like in 2004)

*EDIT* I don’t REALLY think Gio did that on purpose, but I’m so tired / angry about shit happening to Connor and seeing the team not go nuclear in response.*sigh*

He turned his head to look right at Connor’s legs, and then changed his direction that he was going to fall into them. Even put his elbow into a bit.

It was intentional.

YKOil

Maoriduvpoojt:
Washington is approximately $20K under the cap, but Orpik & Vrana get $500K in bonuses due to 40 Games Played.This means next year this $980K overage will cut into their cap.

They have $71 million committed next year, so that brings it to 72 and a few players to re-sign. Something to keep an eye on….

Yes, but can we get Jensen out of them?

€√¥£€^$

For Poolies: Cap Friendly has a cool line chart tool with Avg TOI for the last 5 games for those who might be interested. It might be a new feature, but I know I hadn’t noticed it before.

€√¥£€^$

Washington is approximately $20K under the cap, but Orpik & Vrana get $500K in bonuses due to 40 Games Played. This means next year this $980K overage will cut into their cap.

They have $71 million committed next year, so that brings it to 72 and a few players to re-sign. Something to keep an eye on….

G Money

Leon already had his fitty, so I actually stopped watching after McD went down. Ain’t nobody got time for dat.

Mixed feelings checking in. Always good to win a BoA. Worsens lottery aka Oilers Actual Playoffs chances.

I (literally) laughed out loud when I saw the responses to my Lucic post. Because it’s a meaningless game, I didn’t check any of the pre-game, just started watching, so I didn’t know he was scratched. I made my comment because in my head I went “man I didn’t even notice Looch in the first, he’s gonna have to really pick it up to have a shot at two points”.

Gerta Rauss

hunter1909,

Are you going to post the Death March winner(s) tomorrow..?

79 points
tiebreaker 23 Yaks

Gerta Rauss

hunter1909:
I feel like it’s Christmas day and instead of getting toys they killed my pet hamster.

lol

who

Just watching the Nuge interview in the dressing room after the game.
I had no idea that Bubbles, from Trailer Park Boys, had become a hockey reporter.

Bulging Twine

If #2 wins #2 then #7’s odds of winning #3 is 10% if my math is correct

hunter1909

I feel like it’s Christmas day and instead of getting toys they killed my pet hamster.

Bulging Twine

If #1 wins #1 there is a 30% chance that someone behind #7 wins #2

Bulging Twine

24.5% chance that someone behind them (higher than 7) passes them and wins the #1

which is triple bad because:

1) they don’t win #1
2) they move down a spot
3) they have less chance of winning #2 or #3 than if someone ahead of them wins #1

As they reveal the cards we don’t want any changes to the draft order behind us. That increases the odds of seeing a move up from #7

Bulging Twine

I believe if #1 wins #1 lottery then the Oilers odds of winning #2 pick is 8%

HT Joe

Reja: Where is the respone everyone criers bout the OBC these players knowbetter gutless snowflakes.I clear at least 8 off thissquad into the Fuking sun they should be ashamed.

It’s good to know that all of the recent sacrifices of skill in favour of character and aggression paid off tonight…

€√¥£€^$

deardylan:
Was Drai shot going in when Flames D batted it out of the air?

It looked on-line, but it was pretty wobbly, so who knows what would happen when it hits the ice….

I think this should be an automatic goal,.much like a clear path foul in basketball or even a thrown stick to play a puck. Illegal plays should not come with benefits…

Decidedly Skeptical Fan

texmex:
JOFA,

You’d have to think he’d get an MRI in Calgary rather than fly to Edmonton if the doctors thought there was a tear?!?!?! I’m grasping at straws hete

No. MRI should improve once the swelling has subsided. They wouldn’t do surgery immediately with a tear for the same reason.

Reja

Crazy Pedestrian:
I was stoked when I got the news of Drai getting his 50th earlier, but now I’m reading McDavid has a fucking broken leg?!?! And Gio was the cause!?!?

WTF HOCKEY GODS!!! It was the last god damn period of the season in a game that meant nothing to either team!!!

I hope the fLames get pummeled by Colorado. Both mentally and physically. Crush their bodies and their spirit…

I…am…SO pissed right now…

Edit: hearing no broken leg, but still pissed and hope for aseries sweep by Colorado and Calgary gets no goals in the entire series.

Where is the respone everyone criers bout the OBC these players know better gutless snowflakes. I clear at least 8 off this squad into the Fuking sun they should be ashamed.

JOFA

It looked exactly like knee to me.

Rebillled

Black Friday

Tabernac Saturday

Did anyone even check Giordano in the 3rd?

Although cuckoo, there’s a weird butterfly effect with Lucic not playing this game. Fitting.

Profit

MRIs are also used for hairline fracture identification especially when there is swelling. /Not a doctor

So it’s either bad (tendon) or not bad (hairline / bone bruise)

But it really didn’t look like knee.

JOFA

Nit64: I’d recommend not hitting your bed. But if you have to hit the mattress not the frame

LOL thanks for the laugh. I needed that?

N64

JOFA:
Well this could be worse than a break. Say a prayer before you hit the bed tonight.

I’d recommend not hitting your bed. But if you have to hit the mattress not the frame

Admiral Ackbar

Ben:
Guys, right before McDavid seems to say, “It’s broken,” the trainer clearly asks him: “What do you think of the system of accountability that Darryl Katz has put in place for the OEG’s leadership team?” So all good.

I see what you did there.

Reja

Westchester Oil:
I hate to point this out:

1983-84 Grant Fuhr 45 GP 0 G 14 A
2018-19 Tobias Reider 68 GP 0 G 11 A

I called it a month and half ago his first goal will be in the sixth game second period of the Swiss League.

JOFA

texmex:
JOFA,

You’d have to think he’d get an MRI in Calgary rather than fly to Edmonton if the doctors thought there was a tear?!?!?! I’m grasping at straws hete

I hope you’re right ?

texmex

JOFA,

You’d have to think he’d get an MRI in Calgary rather than fly to Edmonton if the doctors thought there was a tear?!?!?! I’m grasping at straws hete

JOFA

Well this could be worse than a break. Say a prayer before you hit the bed tonight.

Bismarck

Rebillled,

I sure to hell hope it’s not chlamydia!!

€√¥£€^$

HT Joe:
So, anyone still planning on cheering for these Flames in the playoffs?
(I’m going to boo them until they get eliminated… just like in 2004)

*EDIT* I don’t REALLY think Gio did that on purpose, but I’m so tired / angry about shit happening to Connor and seeing the team not go nuclear in response.*sigh*

How is that a penalty, but not a penalty shot?

Decidedly Skeptical Fan

Paulie:
Shannon says MRI tomorrow. What would that detect?

Ligament damage.

Crazy Pedestrian

I was stoked when I got the news of Drai getting his 50th earlier, but now I’m reading McDavid has a fucking broken leg?!?! And Gio was the cause!?!?

WTF HOCKEY GODS!!! It was the last god damn period of the season in a game that meant nothing to either team!!!

I hope the fLames get pummeled by Colorado. Both mentally and physically. Crush their bodies and their spirit…

I…am…SO pissed right now…?

Edit: hearing no broken leg, but still pissed and hope for a series sweep by Colorado and Calgary gets no goals in the entire series.

Victoria Oil

I hate to point this out:

1983-84 Grant Fuhr 45 GP 0 G 14 A
2018-19 Tobias Reider 68 GP 0 G 11 A

Admiral Ackbar

deardylan:
Was Drai shot going in when Flames D batted it out of the air?

Sure looked like it…..

Bulging Twine

Gerta Rauss: Well, I hope that’s true..

Oilers saying x-rays negative. He will return with the Oilers and have MRI in Edmonton

Paulie

Shannon says MRI tomorrow. What would that detect?

Gerta Rauss

Bulging Twine:
McDavid does not have a broken leg according to John Shannon!

Well, I hope that’s true..

Bismarck

OmJo,

From the songbook of the incomparable Hall & Oates:

She’s gone, oh I, oh I’d
Better learn how to face it
She’s gone, oh I, oh I’d
Pay the devil to replace her
She’s gone, what went wrong

Gerta Rauss

JOFA:
6th place will probably win the lottery. I’m getting my water tested tomorrow.

If that happens, I’m going to lose my shit…honestly…