Quarter Moon in a Ten Cent Town

At the end of the 2003-04 AHL season, Doug Lynch of the Toronto Roadrunners was named to the league’s All-rookie team. It’s a prestigious award, and many quality future NHL players used it as a stepping off point over the last 20 years.

It took 15 years, but fans finally have two more names to celebrate. Winger Tyler Benson and goalie Shane Starrett were named to the team yesterday. Cooper Marody surely was strongly considered. It’s been an outstanding season in Bakersfield. How many AHL rookies who performed this well go straight to the NHL the following season?

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group.INSANE NEW OFFER IS HERE!

  • New Lowetide: The Oilers possible summer trade pieces, and which longtime players might be saying goodbye.
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ten prospects likely to be available when the Oilers make their first-round pick.
  • New Corey Pronman: The Athletic’s 2019 NHL Mock Draft (lottery edition): Devils get the No. 1 pick.
  • New Jonathan Willis: Bob Nicholson mostly says the right things, but stalls on making changes to the Oilers.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The pressure’s squarely on Bob Nicholson to make right GM hire for Oilers.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers Report Cards: Few passing grades remain in season full of failure.
  • Lowetide: How winning the draft lottery and drafting Jack Hughes could transform the Oilers.
  • Lowetide: The Oilers have a trio of Condors blue pushing and all three are tracking well. How does this group compare to the Petry, Chorney, Wild college men from a decade ago?
  • Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers, the republic of Finland and the 2019 draft.
  • New Lowetide: Will the new GM continue the Oilers aggressive pursuit of college free agents?
  • New Jonathan Willis: Connor McDavid’s frustration should be seen by the Oilers as a warning of possible disaster.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers have another problem to solve: Lifting the cloud over a clearly frustrated Connor McDavid
  • Lowetide: What’s going on with Connor McDavid’s with or without you numbers?
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The four blows that set up the knockout of the Oilers from playoff contention.
  • New Jonathan Willis: The Oilers’ failures of 2018-19 will cost people their careers.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Chipped teeth, playing DJ and lots of Game of Thrones: A week in the life of Darnell Nurse.
  • Lowetide: What Mark Hunter’s draft record in Toronto means for his Oilers GM candidacy.
  • Lowetide: The Oilers made a rare move and shopped the QMJHL at the 2018 draft. It could happen again.
  • Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers draft early, the WHL is loaded and there’s a lot of history.
  • Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers and the OHL.

REASONABLE EXPECTATIONS

Tyler Benson’s numbers (66, 14-51-65) are impressive, but have recent all-stars with similar numbers moved up to the NHL in the following season? I’m looking at forwards, age 20, who made the list.

  • Dylan Strome made the 2017-18 list and played 78 NHL games the following season. Clearly not a match in terms of draft pedigree.
  • Daniel Sprong made the 2017-18 list and played 63 NHL games the following season. A second-round pick (like Benson) and I believe a match (Sprong went 63, 14-9-23 in the NHL at 21).
  • Charles Hudon made the 2014-15 list and played three NHL games the following season. Not a match for a few reasons, including a lower AHL point total (57 points in 75 games) and lower draft number (fifth round).
  • Connor Brown made the 2014-15 list and played seven NHL games the following season. Not a clear match for the same reasons as Hudon.
  • Ryan Strome made the 2013-14 list and played 81 NHL games the following season. Not a match due to draft pedigree (similar to his brother).
  • Ryan Spooner made the 2012-13 list and played 23 NHL games the following season. He’s a match in terms of AHL points at 20 and draft pedigree.
  • Jason Zucker made the 2012-13 list and played 21 NHL games the following season. He’s a match in the same way as Spooner.
  • Tyler Toffoli made the 2012-13 list and played 62 NHL games the following season. He’s a match like Spooner and Zucker, although this was the lockout season.

Uncertain about using Spooner, Zucker and Toffoli as comparables due to the lockout and increased quality of the AHL in that season. Also, these men might never have played in the AHL without the lockout.

I’ll suggest the only pure comp is Sprong. Fair? Sprong is 18-10-28 after 89 NHL games.

Shane Starrett’s save percentage is .919, that’s No. 4 in the AHL and No. 1 among rookies. He is 24.

  • Ville Husso had a .922 SP and made the 2017-18 AS team. He spent this season in the AHL.
  • Casey DeSmith had a .926 SP and made the 2016-17 AS. He spent 14 games in the NHL the following season (injury).
  • Joni Ortio had a .926 SO in 2013-14 and spent six games in the NHL the following season.

Starrett may have an NHL career, but I expect he’ll need to build on his impressive season with another one in Bakersfield.

ALL THOSE BLUE

There are a growing number of young defencemen pushing for NHL employment in the Oilers pipeline. A good guess would have Caleb Jones and Joel Persson making the grade at the start of the 2018-19 campaign, with Evan Bouchard, William Lagesson and Ethan Bear trying to get to the NHL a-sap. Poor Lagesson not only has Jones ahead of him, but Dmitri Samorukov pushing from behind.

How many of these kids will emerge as NHL regulars? How many will play the heart of their careers in Edmonton? History suggests very few. The Oilers become impatient with their own defensemen at around the time when they need to be paid $4 million or more. We’ll call it the Jeff Petry Challenge rule.

A coach has to be careful on this stuff, too many young blue and he’s out on his ass. I will never forget Punch Imlach trying to move out a ridiculously strong group of aged blue (Tim Horton, Allan Stanley, Bob Baun, Marcel Pronovost) in favor of youth. Here’s how Imlach tried to do it:

  • 1966-67 (final Stanley team): Jim McKenny six games, Duane Rupp three games. McKenny was a pretty good Orr knockoff with defensive issues, and Rupp was (according to my Dad) a career minor leaguer only in the NHL because of expansion.
  • 1967-68: Duane Rupp played 71 games, Mike Pelyk 24, Darryl Sly 17 and poor McKenny just 5. Pelyk was a jewel in Toronto’s crown, Sly a minor league player who did get some time due to expansion.
  • 1968-69: Jim Dorey (61 games) was my favorite Leafs defenseman from the moment he stepped on the ice. He had talent and was also a half bubble off plumb. You would have loved him. Pat Quinn played 40, Rick Ley 37 and poor old McKenny 5. Quinn was an experienced minor leaguer but he could play and had a career. Ley was an undersized but physical two-way defender who would also have a career. Imlach got his ass fired, partly because he was rebuilding on the fly (and partly because he told Stafford Smythe to shove it. Imlach wasn’t all bad).
  • 1969-70: Brian Glennie played 52 games. He was a tough shutdown defender and the master of the hipcheck. A bunch of kids (Randy Murray, Gordie Nelson, Chris Evans, Ken Murray, Larry McIntyre) would also get a cup of coffee.
  • 1970-71: Brad Selwood would play 28 games, he was a solid offensive player who had his moments defensively. Ken Murray got four more games.
  • 1971-72: None.
  • 1972-73: Joe Lundrigan and John Grisdale played 49 games, Larry McIntyre 40 and Dave Fortier 23. The Leafs were forced to play so many rookies because Ballard was too cheap and got raided by the WHA. Stupid Stupid Stupid.
  • 1973-74: Borje Salming played 76 and Ian Turnbull 78 games. Salming was a watershed addition, I cannot possibly communicate how important he would be to the Leafs in the 1970’s. Turnbull was an adventure with the puck and without, my Dad called him a double agent.

I think there’s more than a chance this happens. The new general manager will be pushed to trade JP, and there may be a market for him. However, by the time the new GM is named Puljujarvi may have already decided on his immediate future. I sincerely hope the player does what is best for him.

I’m not doubting Dustin’s sources or his credibility here, I’m certain both are solid. There are a couple of things that make me wonder if this is an organizational ‘counter trey’ (I describe that as an attempt to deflect).

First, if Keith Gretzky has been told he isn’t getting the job, then why bother with the charade at the media avail? Surely you remember Nicholson’s kind words and KG saying he had a plan but wasn’t going to share it? No, I think Gretzky is proceeding as if he is a candidate and that an interview is forthcoming.

Second, the organization needs Gretzky for the draft and possibly beyond. Why would they run the risk of having him bolt the organization? Makes zero sense to me. If the Oilers don’t hire Gretzky as general manager, after what I think we can agree is teasing the possibility, one would expect KG to resign on the spot. I would. You can’t allow anyone to run over you like that, especially in a situation so public.

My opinion is this: Nicholson is between a rock and a hard place. There’s a percentage of the fan base who would like to see Gretzky as the new general manager. The verbal (planted by the team) that Chiarelli went rogue on those bastage fargin’ trades has resonated with many, and those same people believe KG has done a good job building the prospect pipeline and Bakersfield. If Nicholson doesn’t hire him, and KG quits, there’s a portion of the fan base who will balk.

On the other hand, Nicholson is going to interview many qualified candidates. These men aren’t coming for a cup of tea, they’re going to discuss an important career change and are going to want control. If all of the quality candidates insist on control of what the front office looks like, I doubt the conversations go deep. If one of these men is willing to step into what is clearly a flawed management structure, is this the person you want to hire?

I think Keith Gretzky showed well the other day. I also think that complicates Bob Nicholson’s job. If I’m Nicholson, I’m cheering like hell for a San Jose sweep. If he can get Kelly McCrimmon as general manager, the fans will be pleased, the new GM will have long relationships with all of the hockey ops people, and an eye for pro scouting (as seen during the expansion draft). If McCrimmon wants to see change, it can be massaged as opposed to being a public shift. That’s the Oilers way.

Failing that, it’s a sea of grey and several miles of active candidates. I believe that list includes Keith Gretzky.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

Thursday already, we have a sweet guest list and a lot to talk about. TSN1260, 10 this morning, scheduled to appear:

  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal. Who is leaving? How many new faces in the fall?
  • Andrew Peard, Oil Kings play by play. The EOK roll over Calgary and now I’m wondering how far they can go?
  • Frank Seravalli, TSN. Opening night playoffs and oh my GOD were there some surprises.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. I have 90 minutes to shower, shave, shampoo, dress, prep, drive, arrive. Will I make it?

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

198 Responses to "Quarter Moon in a Ten Cent Town"

  1. Alpine says:

    Gretzky should be happy to stay on. Is he gonna get a promotion in any other organization? If his brother wasn’t immortal and next in line to the owner then he would have been thrown out around the same time as Chia.

  2. nvan97 says:

    Alpine,

    This is what I was thinking. If the new GM was willing to take him on as the AGM and some sort of leadership role in amateur scouting that seems like his best opportunity right now.

  3. Jaxon says:

    I want to repost this from late last night to show some interesting stats on two players. Raphael Lavoie and Arthur Kaliyev and their impressive seasons.

    Raphael Lavoie 6’4″ – 198lbs.Right-handed C/RW
    A few scouts have him ranked in the 9-12 range but consensus has him around #21. This playoff heater may have him climb significantly.

    Lavoie’s 13 goals in 11 games going into the 3rd round of playoffs (they won their series tonight so he’s guaranteed 4 more games) is special. Since 2004-05 (Crosby’s draft year), these are the top under-19-year-old goal scorers in the Q playoffs:
    ’08 – Paul Byron – 19GP – 21G (draft+1)
    ’07 – Brad Marchand – 20GP – 16G (draft+1)
    ’11 – Jonathan Huberdeau – 19GP – 16G (draft season)
    ’16 – Anthony Beauvillier – 21GP – 15G (draft+1)
    ’05 – Sidney Crosby – 13GP – 14G (draft season)
    ’19 – Raphael Lavoie – 10GP – 13G
    ’14 – Jonathan Drouin – 16GP – 13G (draft+1)
    ’12 – Nathan MacKinnon – 17GP – 13G (draft-1)
    ’11 – Jean-Gabriel Pageau – 24GP – 13G (draft season)

    Even if he slows down a bit there is a good chance he ends up 2nd on this list. Everyone on that list has scored at least 19 goals in a season.

    EDIT: I was filtering by age and realized it included draft+1 seasons. I’ve indicated draft+1, Draft, and draft-1 (MacKinnon). Now the list looks more like this for draft or draft-1 players:

    ’11 – Jonathan Huberdeau – 19GP – 16G (draft season)
    ’05 – Sidney Crosby – 13GP – 14G (draft season)
    ’19 – Raphael Lavoie – 10GP – 13G
    ’12 – Nathan MacKinnon – 17GP – 13G (draft-1)
    ’11 – Jean-Gabriel Pageau – 24GP – 13G (draft season)

    Scouts on Lavoie:
    Sam Conentino – SportsNetFeb. 13th: “One of the biggest enigmas in this draft class, his matter-of-fact attitude is displayed on and off the ice. It always comes back to skill and he has a lot of that to offer.”

    Steve Kournianos – Sporting NewsJan. 31st: “Few bigger forwards in the 2019 group can motor and handle the puck as well as Lavoie, who plays with confidence while controlling the puck. He’s a sound decision maker and can score goals from just about anywhere in the offensive zone.”

    Hannah Stuart – theScoreJan. 9th: “The projected power forward has an accurate and heavy shot, while he’s good at protecting the puck.”

    Sam Cosentino – Sportsnet – Dec. 12th: “A full array of tools from which to draw and all of them are NHL calibre. Playing with the full toolbox every night is a challenge.”

    Sam Cosentino – SportsNet – Nov. 7th: “Great hands with the ability to work in tight spaces. Combined with acute shooting ability, he is a threat every time he crosses the blue line.”

    Steve Kournianos – The Draft Analyst – Nov. 5th: “Big-bodied goal scorer with very good speed and can stickhandle his way around any jam.”

    ______________________________________________________________________________

    Arthur Kaliyev – 6’2″ – 190lbs, left-handed, LW
    A few scouts have him ranked in the 7-9 range but consensus has him around #16

    A similar exercise for Arthur Kaliyev’s regular season goal total of 51. It puts him in some pretty special company in the O since the 2005 draft season eligible players:

    ’07 – John Tavares – 67GP – 72G (draft-2!!!)
    ’07 – Patrick Kane – 58GP – 62G
    ’08 – Steve Stamkos – 61GP – 58G
    ’09 – John Tavares – 56GP – 58G
    ’16 – Alex Debrincat – 60GP – 51G
    ’19 – Arthur Kaliyev – 67GP – 51G
    ’15 – Alex Debrincat – 68GP – 51G (draft-1)
    ’10 – Jeff Skinner – 64GP – 50G

    ’15 – Connor McDavid – 47GP – 44G
    ’10 – Taylor Hall – 57GP – 40G

    Those numbers should be hard to ignore no matter how divisive he is. His coaches say he has great character and is very coachable.

    From Pronman’s article about how divisive Kaliyev is with scouts:
    “Arthur is one of the most dynamic players I’ve coached in the OHL in my six years here. I coached Dylan Strome and Alex DeBrincat. In my opinion, Arthur is just as good a player as either of those two,” said Vince Laise, the acting coach of the Hamilton Bulldogs.

    Laise was formerly an assistant coach with Erie.

    “Arthur has the ability to find the back of the net just as those two did at the same age,” Laise said. “They differ in play styles but all achieve what NHL organizations look for. Arthur is more than just a power play producer, his underlying value is his ability to produce at even strength and his playmaking. He’s been as coachable as they come and a pleasure to work with.”

    Scouts on Kaliyev:
    Sam Conentino – SportsNetFeb. 13th: “Masterful performance at the Top Prospects Game, and while it’s only one game, he showed just how good he can be when he’s at his best.”

    Cam Robinson – Dobber ProspectsFeb. 6th: “A shoot-first winger who knows how to find the back of the net. Somewhat one-dimensional but that dimension has produced 35 goals in 48 games this season. Changes the release point and angle to exploit netminders. Protects the puck well but lacks engagement and pace far too often”

    Steve Kournianos – Sporting NewsJan. 31st: “Owner of one of the deadliest shots you’ll find in this draft class, the Staten Island-born Kaliyev has developed into a well-rounded scorer and is starting to use his thick frame to his advantage. ”

    Hannah Stuart – theScoreJan. 9th: “He’s always dangerous thanks to his excellent release. He protects the puck well and isn’t afraid to get into difficult spots.”

    Sam Cosentino – SportsNet – Nov. 7th: “The goal scoring has always been there. He has shown other parts of his game that make you think the sky’s the limit. Finding consistency in those other areas will cement him inside the top-15.”

    Scott Wheeler – The Athletic – Nov. 6th: “He was great at Hlinka this summer and he can score with the best of them in the OHL. There’s a real case to be made for Kaliyev as having the best release in the class. That will get a lot of teams really excited and will likely result in Kaliyev as a top-10 pick.””

  4. Lowetide says:

    Alpine:
    Gretzky should be happy to stay on. Is he gonna get a promotion in any other organization? If his brother wasn’t immortal and next in line to the owner then he would have been thrown out around the same time as Chia.

    It doesn’t work that way. If Gretzky is truly valued by the organization, I doubt they’d do this to him. If they do, then he surrenders, KG is doomed to live out his life as an underling. I suspect he’s more ambitious.

  5. p3rsonman says:

    I’m not sure I agree with your take on KG, Lowetide. If Dusty’s info is correct, I think they’ve heard loud and clear that hiring Keith Gretzky is not going to sit well with the majority of fans because it’s seen as the “same old”.

    Perhaps it’s naive to think they’ve learned anything, but the threat of cancelled season tickets might be forcing their hand.

    However, the flip side is that if Dusty’s info is correct they’ve now got a man without a GM future handling their draft and that doesn’t seem like a good scenario.

  6. Woogie63 says:

    Wait a Finnish hockey team wants a Finnish kid to play for them? Is this news?

    Why would a 20 year leave to NHL to play in the Finnish league?

    The new coach is going to want JP on his wing. Why because he is a coach.

  7. Alpine says:

    Lowetide,

    Is he gonna get a better job than assistant GM? I agree it’s stupid to parade him around but he also is the interim general manager until further notice.

    I’m sure there’s a handshake deal where he has immunity if a new GM wants to clear people out. They could use someone who knows the team to help the new GM.

    Keith has got to be self aware enough that it’s a bumpy road for assistant GMs who were hired by a recently fired GM.

  8. dustrock says:

    p3rsonman:

    However, the flip side is that if Dusty’s info is correct they’ve now got a man without a GM future handling their draft and that doesn’t seem like a good scenario.

    He’s currently the top management employee for the Oilers and is still employed with the team. He has a duty to handle whatever managerial duties come up, including the draft.

    If KG blows off the draft, or somehow sabotages the draft (not sure what you’re implying), he’ll never work in the NHL again.

    it is in Gretzky’s best interests, either to become GM of the Oilers, or for career prospects on another team, to absolutely nail this draft.

  9. commonfan29 says:

    Lowetide: It doesn’t work that way. If Gretzky is truly valued by the organization, I doubt they’d do this to him.

    You don’t think talking him up as a “very legitimate candidate” for the job as much as they have will be good for his career long-term?

    From the start, I’ve thought all the talk was probably a favour to him to help get him into the conversation for other positions in the future.

  10. JimmyV1965 says:

    Lowetide: It doesn’t work that way. If Gretzky is truly valued by the organization, I doubt they’d do this to him. If they do, then he surrenders, KG is doomed to live out his life as an underling. I suspect he’s more ambitious.

    But the whole process is curious. Why would you have this entire dog and pony show, travelling the four corners of the earth, interviewing a dozen candidates, if you’re simply going to hire the guy down the hall?

  11. Jaxon says:

    I’m pretty bullish on Benson’s potential.
    The remarkable thing to consider with Benson is that this is only his 20 year old, draft+3 season, which is great, but if you consider lost development time due to injury, it may align more with the development curve of a 19 year old, draft+2 season. If we consider his development delayed by 1 year when he missed 2 half seasons and probably played much of those seasons while not 100% without any summers to work on strength, endurance and skills, and we then consider this year akin to his 19 year old season, how does that compare to 19 year old seasons in the AHL going back to the 2005-06 season via 5v5 P1/60?

    5v5 P1/60 (min. 30GP)
    W Nylander 2.47
    M Rantanen 2.44
    D Brassard 2.34
    T Benson 2.32
    N Kadri 2.32
    J Vrana 2.24
    K Palmieri 2.23
    N Filatov 2.23
    E Poirier 2.2
    T Tatar 2.18
    L Caputi 2.14
    M D’Agostini 2.00
    T Meier 1.92

    I’m sure there are many statistical reasons not to do this, but I was curious to see how his 20 year old season lined up against recent 19 year old seasons. They may have a hell of a player on their hands.

    Note: All numbers from prospect-stats.com
    Prospect Stats marks birthdays such that Benson is 20.504 years old this season (September 15th?), so the players included above could be as old as only 6 months younger than Benson.

    If we look at just overall points (source: Elite Prospects) then he has some pretty impressive company there as well. Players who have scored at that kind of pace as 20 year olds in the AHL in the last 20 years:
    Artem Anisimov, Justin Williams, Dustin Brown, David Krecji, Kris Versteeg, Tomas Vanek. We’d kill to have one of those guys in their prime playing on McDavid’s or Draisaitl’s wing.

    Patrice Bergeron, Miko Rantanen, and Jason Spezza put up similar numbers in their 19 year old season, which is maybe where we should be drawing comparisons as mentioned above.

  12. Caribbeerman says:

    Hoping for a Sharks series win for this very same reason – McCrimmon!

  13. russ99 says:

    I thought KG was quoted when he was named interim GM that he wasn’t interested in the job permanently.

    IMO all this bluster is Nicholson a) running it up the flagpole and b) looking dumb in the press, something he’s wont to do.

    All those fans who want KG as GM (which can’t be many) and solely blaming Chiarelli as scapegoat can’t deny his involvement with the Koskinen extension and the post-Hitchcock trades.

    We all see him as a good drafter, from his track record with the Bruins and Oilers. That doesn’t qualify him for GM and doesn’t absolve him from being part of the groupthink for many of our poor moves, not to mention that hiring him as GM is the best way for the groupthink to continue, while an outside GM hire would bring in different voices and techniques, something that is sorely needed.

    As for Jesse, a year in the KHL or SEL would be a smart move by the player and the Oilers. We’re never going to get close to sunk costs in a trade this summer, and only Hitchcock thinks he’s ready for a regular NHL role. The Oilers get to kick the RFA can down the road a year and the player gets more time to develop.

  14. Coiler says:

    I feel for Gretzky. The organization is saying that if no one else wants to come, not all of the names mentioned, not the office cleaner, not the guy who plows the sidewalk, or the zamboni driver, then he’ll get the position. BUT only if none of those other guys want it.

    What a bunch of muppets.

    If the rumours of Nicholson’s departure are true, and there are no reasons to think that they aren’t, then why in the name of baby jesus is he leading the search for the position of GM?

  15. JJS says:

    There is a common practice in business whereby we promote people to a level of incompetence. Really good front end staff do not make great managers. Great managers don’t make great directors and so on.

    There is nothing wrong with being a really good assistant GM in the NHL. And staying there.

  16. Professor Q says:

    Coiler,

    Well, because he was the only one willing to query rival organizations on what to look for in a good POHO and GM, so they needed him to do one last act before leaving for the IIHF.

  17. Professor Q says:

    Lowetide: It doesn’t work that way. If Gretzky is truly valued by the organization, I doubt they’d do this to him. If they do, then he surrenders, KG is doomed to live out his life as an underling. I suspect he’s more ambitious.

    Didn’t he in his own words say that he’d be willing to stay as AGM depending on who was hired?

    I know things change and he did say that he wanted the job more recently, but maybe he does like AGM more. He seems a bit too static and lackadaisical to be a GM at this time.

  18. knighttown says:

    We struggle with this type of thinking in our organization as well. If we lose a middle manager people go through mental gymnastics to try and find a positive about someone a few rungs below who might be able to do the job, I’m constantly pushing to go through a process with inside and outside talent and if person X (from inside) is the best candidate it will become clear. If an internal candidate is insulted they are being asked to interview then I don’t want them anyway because they’ll only perpetuate this cycle when they are doing the hiring.

    LIke any other career, you build a resume. For an AGM, your resume is pretty obvious as you are directly competing against your peers. Keith Gretzky is the AGM for one of the worst teams in the NHL. That’s there in black-and-white. If he wasn’t an internal candidate, no one would be the least bit interested. Because he IS an internal candidate he probably gets an interview and a real shot because hiring from within makes good corporate culture.

    Heading into the interview he should be miles behind McCrimmon or Pat Verbeek based on their respective AGM resumes. Now, if in the interview he can make up this gap then by all means, he can have the job.

    And let me promise you this. As a business owner threats of someone leaving if they don’t get the job concern me not at all. Our organization tries to grow and groom talent and if someone leaves for an awesome opportunity I take it as a compliment and shake their hand on the way out.

    If Gretzky gets a fair shake and then bails before the draft (for a lateral move) he may damage his reputation beyond repair.

    The Oilers don’t know this yet but no one is bigger than the organization. Take your time, go through the process and out of the immense pool of talent out there pick the very best person for the job.

  19. sean w says:

    LT, why do you feel a new GM would be pushed to trade Puljujärvi? Just curious.

  20. dustrock says:

    Jaxon,

    Yeah, I brought up Lavoie a week or two ago.

    He’s a guy who was an early season top 10 pick, his draft-1 season last year was great and with his body and skill set, he was expected to dominate.

    The season didn’t start out so well for him and that’s why he was dropped in the early and mid-season projections.

    He has been absolutely killing it in the last third of the season and the playoffs though.

    I don’t think the Oilers would pick him at #8 but I think you could make a pretty convincing case for it.

  21. Bos8 says:

    Hitch lied about Jessie. He gave him the same short shrift that McLelland did.

    What was the best situation for Jessie and with that the Oilers? Play him with the two Condors. If it works try him at center.

    They play two games a week for God’s sake. The Oilers are screwing around with a generational talent. The don’t know what’s wrong but they did screw up. Make up your mind and follow through. At least your conscience will be clean. Give it your best shot.

    The Oilers are terribly prone to the dispatch disease. “He jumped on his horse and rode off in all directions”.

    “Each day a new new concept, each day a new direction”

  22. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    I think there’s more than a chance this happens. The new general manager will be pushed to trade JP, and there may be a market for him. However, by the time the new GM is named Puljujarvi may have already decided on his immediate future. I sincerely hope the player does what is best for him.

    Neilson said this morning that JP's agent came out and said 100% that JP was in the NHL next year.

  23. Woogie63 says:

    p3rsonman:
    I’m not sure I agree with your take on KG, Lowetide. If Dusty’s info is correct, I think they’ve heard loud and clear that hiring Keith Gretzky is not going to sit well with the majority of fans because it’s seen as the “same old”.

    Perhaps it’s naive to think they’ve learned anything, but the threat of cancelled season tickets might be forcing their hand.

    However, the flip side is that if Dusty’s info is correct they’ve now got a man without a GM future handling their draft and that doesn’t seem like a good scenario.

    Hiring the new GM will have nothing to do with a fan poll run by Dusty or fan reaction to a Kretzky. He was second in charge for a bad team, that means you don’t get promoted. AND this is not the first time he has been a manager on a bad team.

  24. Bos8 says:

    dustrock:
    Jaxon,

    Yeah, I brought up Lavoie a week or two ago.

    He’s a guy who was an early season top 10 pick, his draft-1 season last year was great and with his body and skill set, he was expected to dominate.

    The season didn’tstart out so well for him and that’s why he was dropped in the early and mid-season projections.

    He has been absolutely killing it in the last third of the season and the playoffs though.

    I don’t think the Oilers would pick him at #8 but I think you could make a pretty convincing case for it.

    Lavoie seems destined for Montreal or Ottawa.

  25. Jaxon says:

    dustrock:
    Jaxon,

    Yeah, I brought up Lavoie a week or two ago.

    He’s a guy who was an early season top 10 pick, his draft-1 season last year was great and with his body and skill set, he was expected to dominate.

    The season didn’t start out so well for him and that’s why he was dropped in the early and mid-season projections.

    He has been absolutely killing it in the last third of the season and the playoffs though.

    I don’t think the Oilers would pick him at #8 but I think you could make a pretty convincing case for it.

    Reminds me of the heater that Vitali Kravtsov went on in the KHL playoffs last year. He ended up going 9th overall and climbed a lot after that playoff run. I’ll be following his playoffs, cheering for him to pass others on that list of great NHLers. I really liked the Rangers picks last year with Kravtsov (historic numbers for a draft age player in KHL playoffs), K’Andre Miller (one of my favs last year), Nils Lundkvist, Olof Lindbom (maybe the top goalie), and Jacob Ragnarsson. I believe their scouts must have been leaning heavily on stats. And they have 3 picks in the 1st round again this year. Jeff Gorton should teach a course on rebuilding a team quickly. Oh yeah, Gorton is also the guy that built the Bruin Cup winners and then Chiarelli got all the credit. Sather hires Gorton and he builds them a future contender in 2 years. And then he stole Strome from Chia for spooner. Huh.

  26. Durag says:

    Jaxon,

    I’d also argue that Benson’s draft pedigree took a hit because of his injury history. If he had a healthier couple of years prior to his draft year he probably would have gone mid-first round or higher.

  27. godot10 says:

    A heater is a heater. It means little. Who is going to change their draft ratings significantly on a heater?

    Especially on perhaps the oldest prospect in the draft.

  28. Jaxon says:

    godot10:
    A heater is a heater.It means little.Who is going to change their draft ratings significantly on a heater?

    Especially on perhaps the oldest prospect in the draft.

    Kravtsov was ranked typically in the 15 to 20 range and as low as 36 on one ranking. Even right before the draft only one scout had him at 6th and the next highest was 14th. He ended up going 9th largely due to his playoff heater.

  29. YKOil says:

    on KG.

    IF Keith Gretzky has been heavily involved in Cap and contract discussions and exhibited a strong, and demonstrable, belief in analytics as he develops his scouting lists, THEN I am amenable to moving him up.

    I do not believe that to be the case therefore I cannot, in good conscience, recommend him for the GM chair.

    That said.

    No organization should shit on success. Unless one can demonstrate that the good is wholly intertwined with the bad then it is more damaging than good to cut out the ALL the good with the bad.

    So, my approach would be this.

    – incoming GM is, barring a Chiarelli style meltdown, guaranteed his job (this is important given what comes next)
    – incoming GM is keeping Keith Gretzky and team and may augment as needed but there is not to be any no poisoning of the well
    – other than the amateur scouting group the new GM has full authority to change as needed (which represents the vast majority of the operation)
    – Keith Gretzky will, himself, be incorporated into the business, Cap, contract, professional scouting and minor league development discussion and decision making parts of the job
    – it is understood that the GM’s duty to this matter, is to mentor and train KG to be a GM/budding-AGM somewhere
    – at the end of two years the new GM can do as he wishes, keep KG on or send him on his way
    – at the end of the same two years KG can move on if he so desires but it is not his decision to ‘just stay’, that is up to the GM and the relationship the two have forged

    In this way the Oilers stay true to rewarding excellence without cutting the feet out from under the new GM, the new GM also retains full future flexibility and, in the meantime, hasn’t been hamstrung by having to retain a poor scouting unit.

    Requirement for this to work – a strong president. Which Nicholson may or may not be.

    That is my read, and approach, on it.

  30. Durag says:

    I don’t know if this has been discussed, but I’m not sure why Vegas won’t allow McCrimmon to interview until they’re eliminated from the playoffs. What does an AGM do for the team once they’re in the playoffs? If it’s about draft work, why would it make a difference if they’re still playing playoff games or not?

  31. McNuge93 says:

    Question for you guys. Who was seen as Chia’s assistant GM or was there any clear 2IC. Was it MacT or KGretz?

    I think there are ways to tell a guy in a positive way that you are not likely to get the promotion but you have the potential to get there with more and broader experience so I hope this has happened. Maybe you hire a new GM and he keeps KGretz and gives him added responsibility. Really, is any other team going to hire him as GM today. No chance.

  32. npanciroli says:

    Jaxon, great posts today – I enjoyed reading them all and loved the insight on some prospects.

  33. frjohnk says:

    Looking at Cooper Marodys comparables points per game and same age

    Marody put up 1.125 pts/game

    1.351 Seth Griffith
    1.326 Teemu Pulkkinen
    1.25 Matt D’Agostini
    1.239 Teddy Purcell
    1.185 Max Pacioretty
    1.133 Alexander Khokhlachev
    1.13 Anton Lander
    1.125 Dustin Jeffrey
    1.116 Linden Vey
    1.105 Nick Shore
    1.067 Cory Conacher
    1.058 Christopher Bourque
    1.054 Jerome Samson
    1.036 Gustav Nyquist
    1.03 Cal O’Reilly
    1.029 Vladislav Namestnikov
    1.029 Mathieu Perreault
    1.027 Brock Trotter
    1 Nick Cousins
    1 Jeremy Morin
    1 Brandon Pirri
    1 Aaron Palushaj
    0.98 Brett MacLean
    0.958 Carter Ashton
    0.955 Emerson Etem
    0.953 Martins Karsums
    0.95 Tim Erixon
    0.945 Jordan Weal
    0.941 Josh Leivo
    0.941 Reid Boucher
    0.939 Rhett Rakhshani
    0.918 Tim Kennedy
    0.909 Johan Larsson
    0.903 Shane Prince
    0.9 Nick Bonino
    0.889 Matt Beleskey
    0.885 Sven Andrighetto
    0.882 Matt Puempel
    0.875 Charles Hudon
    0.871 Erik Haula
    0.867 Curtis McKenzie
    0.864 Nathan Gerbe
    0.863 Cam Atkinson
    0.862 Benn Ferriero
    0.857 Alan Quine
    0.857 Joshua Winquist
    0.855 Jason Akeson
    0.854 Tom Pyatt
    0.849 Michal Repik
    0.848 Patrick Maroon
    0.846 Mark Arcobello

    A few notable Oiler connections here, Purcell, Lander, Winquist, Maroon, Arcobello

    About 12 players ( out of this list of 50 )who became more than NHLers have played more than 4th line in the NHL. Most are tweeners, some end up overseas.

    Marody has his own story to write, but it was interesting looking at these numbers.

  34. ArmchairGM says:

    frjohnk,

    So… you’re saying we get another chance with Anton Lander?

  35. Dee Dee says:

    JimmyV1965,

    JimmyV1965: Lowetide: It doesn’t work that way. If Gretzky is truly valued by the organization, I doubt they’d do this to him. If they do, then he surrenders, KG is doomed to live out his life as an underling. I suspect he’s more ambitious.

    But the whole process is curious. Why would you have this entire dog and pony show, travelling the four corners of the earth, interviewing a dozen candidates, if you’re simply going to hire the guy down the hall?

    Cause it’s in the Script, we searched the entire world and what do you know, we had the right guy all along!

    It would be nice to find a way for a Win/Win situation where a new outside hire comes in and Keith retains an important role and is allowed to grow into the job.

  36. OriginalPouzar says:

    I read that article yesterday on Jesse and there was zero of substance in there. Nothing from Jesse’s camp or Karpat – just a writer’s thoughts that it’s something that should happen(and the writer himself acknowledges it’s unlikely).

  37. Todd Macallan says:

    My humble submission for future title for AHL post:

    Space to Bakersfield
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZhWMS9PdUtY

    by Black Mountain, fantastic throwback/psychedelic rock from Vancouver

  38. frjohnk says:

    ArmchairGM:
    frjohnk,

    So… you’re saying we get another chance with Anton Lander?

    We still have his rights dont we?

  39. ArmchairGM says:

    Eighth overall picks from the past 8 drafts, and their career stats:

    2011: Couterier 578, 134-209-343
    2012: Pouliot 200, 8-40-48
    2013: Ristolainen 424, 36-158-194
    2014: W Nylander 239, 55-107-162
    2015: Werenski 237, 38-90-128
    2016: A Nylander 19, 3-3-6
    2017: Mittelstadt 83, 13-17-30
    2018: Boqvist

    Pretty decent list, if you ask me. The one “miss” still played 200 games – and counting. The jury is still out on the last 3, although there’s more certainty with Mittelstadt than with Nylander.

    Could do with a few more of these players. Too bad this is the last time we’ll be picking this high.

  40. ArmchairGM says:

    frjohnk: We still have his rights dont we?

    I don’t believe so.

  41. Melman says:

    If they hire a GM from outside, that person will have very little time before the draft and July 1 and, as we all know, there is a looaaaaad of work to do to fix this mess. I get that new GMs like to rebuild their staff, but it’s not feasible to prepare for the draft, make trades, do the UFA dance at the end of June, be active July 1 and fire/hire anywhere from 3-8 people in senior hockey positions. Not all of the people you want to bring in will be readily or willingly available. So what would a smart GM do? A smart GM would start by culling the least performing hockey ops areas, which for the Oilers is pro scouting, lack of analytics, and cap management. Right now amateur scouting and development is an organizational positive which is KG, and I believe MacTs, domain along with the fine work done by Woodcroft and his staff (does anyone know what Howson does? Anyone? Bueller? Anyone?). As a new GM coming in, you will need some existing hockey ops people and a smart one would keep the guys that are performing well, which includes KG and getting those guys to buy into being an integral part of the solution.

    Having said all that, if the new GM coming in is giving a list by the owner of untouchables and a set of handcuffs on his authority, then we can question whether he is a smart GM because a smart GM would not take a job with those restrictions.

  42. Reja says:

    commonfan29: You don’t think talking him up as a “very legitimate candidate” for the job as much as they have will be good for his career long-term?

    From the start, I’ve thought all the talk was probably a favour to him to help get him into the conversation for other positions in the future.

    Drive for show putt for dough.

  43. godot10 says:

    frjohnk: We still have his rights dont we?

    Nope. Anton Lander turned 27 last year.

  44. LMHF#1 says:

    People seem to be really, really worried about losing a few shiny nickels in the trash bag that is the hockey side of this organization.

    Take it to the damn curb already. Finding slightly-above-marginal is neither difficult nor a desirable standard.

    Also – it’s not as if a new GM can’t be doing work right now…in fact the sort of person they hire should already have a first 100 days in mind…this “I need some time” stuff is, was and has always been crap.

  45. bendelson says:

    ArmchairGM: Too bad this is the last time we’ll be picking this high.

    Comedy!
    Tragedy!
    Good stuff AGM.

  46. frjohnk says:

    ArmchairGM: Too bad this is the last time we’ll be picking this high

    Never been said on this blog before

  47. Halfwise says:

    YKOil:
    on KG.

    IF Keith Gretzky has been heavily involved in Cap and contract discussions and exhibited a strong, and demonstrable, belief in analytics as he develops his scouting lists, THEN I am amenable to moving him up.

    I do not believe that to be the case therefore I cannot, in good conscience, recommend him for the GM chair.

    That said.

    No organization should shit on success.Unless one can demonstrate that the good is wholly intertwined with the bad then it is more damaging than good to cut out the ALL the good with the bad.

    So, my approach would be this.

    – incoming GM is, barring a Chiarelli style meltdown, guaranteed his job (this is important given what comes next)
    – incoming GM is keeping Keith Gretzky and team and may augment as needed but there is not to be any no poisoning of the well
    – other than the amateur scouting group the new GM has full authority to change as needed (whichrepresents the vast majority of the operation)
    – Keith Gretzky will, himself, be incorporated into the business, Cap, contract, professional scouting and minor league development discussion and decision making parts of the job
    – it is understood that the GM’s duty to this matter, is to mentor and train KG to be a GM/budding-AGM somewhere
    – at the end of two years the new GM can do as he wishes, keep KG on or send him on his way
    – at the end of the same two years KG can move on if he so desires but it is not his decision to ‘just stay’, that is up to the GM and the relationship the two have forged

    In this way the Oilers stay true to rewarding excellence without cutting the feet out from under the new GM, the new GM also retains full future flexibility and, in the meantime, hasn’t been hamstrung by having to retain a poor scouting unit.

    Requirement for this to work – a strong president.Which Nicholson may or may not be.

    That is my read, and approach, on it.

    If you’d invited me to an interview and laid this out, I would ask “If you’re this smart, why do you need me? And why isn’t your team better?”

  48. Durag says:

    Melman:
    If they hire a GM from outside, that person will have very little time before the draft and July 1 and, as we all know, there is a looaaaaad of work to do to fix this mess. I get that new GMs like to rebuild their staff, but it’s not feasible to prepare for the draft, make trades, do the UFA dance at the end of June, be active July 1 and fire/hire anywhere from 3-8 people in senior hockey positions. Not all of the people you want to bring in will be readily or willingly available.So what would a smart GM do? A smart GM would start by culling the least performing hockey ops areas, which for the Oilers is pro scouting, lack of analytics, and cap management. Right now amateur scouting and development is an organizational positive which is KG, and I believe MacTs, domain along with the fine work done by Woodcroft and his staff (does anyone know what Howson does? Anyone? Bueller? Anyone?).As a new GM coming in, you will need some existing hockey ops people and a smart one would keep the guys that are performing well, which includes KG and getting those guys to buy into being an integral part of the solution.

    Having said all that, if the new GM coming in is giving a list by the owner of untouchables and a set of handcuffs on his authority, then we can question whether he is a smart GM because a smart GM would not take a job with those restrictions.

    I would assume that any work the amateur scouting staff does is property of the Oilers and doesn’t go out the door with them if they get turfed. Also, any new hires in amateur scouting should have done a lot of thinking about the upcoming draft and won’t be starting from scratch.

    It’s not ideal, but I don’t think that it’s impossible for a new GM to gut the amateur scouting department and still go into the draft reasonably prepared.

  49. OriginalPouzar says:

    It the Oilers had a legit and established #1 goalie that they know they could rely on then Shane Starrett could potentially have a real shot at the back-up NHL job next season, however, given what we’ve seen from Koskinen, we all know that the team needs an established veteran back-up tender with some recent starter’s experience (and success) so Starrett will need to peculate for another year.

    Hopefully Haweye signs soon and they have to try and figure out how to give all four pro goalies time in the AHL next year.

  50. OriginalPouzar says:

    Nothing like being up at 1:45 am on vacation, yet again.

    Damn work commitments – had to take a call and now I can’t get back to sleep because I’m trying to figure out how to logistically do the call I have at 4:30am with the gym (that’s the time I usually head to the gym and I can’t delay it as we have a Kyoto bamboo gardens and area bike tour we need to leave for at 7).

    Positives: lets me catch on up Lowetide earlier than normal so I feel good about being in the know.

  51. OriginalPouzar says:

    I don’t read anything in to Gretzky still doing his job even though he has been told he’s not going to be the permanent GM, if that is indeed the case.

    He likely is hoping to continue is some sort of AGM / Lead Amateur Procurement role under the new GM and knows the team is relying on him to run this June’s draft.

  52. Melman says:

    Durag,

    Sure, but why would you when there are clearly more pressing issues like the pro scouting which is a tire fire?

  53. OriginalPouzar says:

    A trade of Pulujujarvi at this time still makes almost no sense to me as it doesn’t seem like something that can turn out well for the Oilers. Jesse is still 20 (almost 21) and his potential value to the Oilers vastly outweighs current acquisition return value. The return would almost for sure be underwhelming and what is the point in that? Arrows are what they are but lots of meh arrows for good prospects at this age that pop shortly thereafter.

  54. OriginalPouzar says:

    It is tough for Lagesson to be kind of blocked a bit. His play this year warrants a real shot to compete for an NHL job but Jones and his plus skating and better puck moving and PP acumen will likely win the day over Willie for next year.

    On that other hand, what a great problem for the Oilers to have and something they have not had for, well, ever that I can remember – real NHL ready players waiting in the AHL for an opportunity.

    Instead of having players that aren’t quite ready play in the NHL due to lack of depth, we have NHL ready players in the AHL due to NHL ready depth.

    Injuries will happen and, if he continues to progress and show he’s NHL ready, Lagesson will get games next year.

    If Jones and Lagesson do prove to actually be NHL ready then that could trigger a trade of an incumbent veteran like Sekera but lets not move out the NHL d-men before the graduates have proven ready.

  55. Reja says:

    Halfwise: If you’d invited me to an interview and laid this out, I would ask “If you’re this smart, why do you need me? And why isn’t your team better?”

    Not even if they waved 3 million dollars in your face.

  56. pts2pndr says:

    JimmyV1965: But the whole process is curious. Why would you have this entire dog and pony show, travelling the four corners of the earth, interviewing a dozen candidates, if you’re simply going to hire the guy down the hall?

    The easy answer is that the Oiler management has beenraked over the coals for not doing due dilligence. If after interviewing candidates for the job Keith Gretzky is the best man available he should get the job. There will always be optics problems if they do hire him however this is not Keith’s fault.

  57. ArmchairGM says:

    bendelson,

    frjohnk,

    *grins*

    Glad you guys are paying attention!

  58. Jaxon says:

    Durag: I would assume that any work the amateur scouting staff does is property of the Oilers and doesn’t go out the door with them if they get turfed. Also, any new hires in amateur scouting should have done a lot of thinking about the upcoming draft and won’t be starting from scratch.

    It’s not ideal, but I don’t think that it’s impossible for a new GM to gut the amateur scouting department and still go into the draft reasonably prepared.

    Remember when Chiarelli fired his head amateur scout Stu MacGregor, and head pro scout Morey Gare, and two other scouts just 6 days before the biggest draft of the past 10 years. Fun times. The same draft he decided to trade #16 & 33 for Griffin Reinhart? Were they telling him Reinhart sucked and that #16 & 33 shouldn’t be traded? I agree, it’s not ideal and also not the end of the world as long as you don’t do it less than a week before the draft.

  59. 106 and 106 says:

    Shane Starrett played for the Air Force.

    What does that mean?

    Like he was a goalie ‘signed’ to an Air Force team, or he is part of the Air Force, then decided on a goaltending route?

    Does the Air Force only play Army, Marines, NAVY or is this just a world I don’t know?

  60. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    A trade of Pulujujarvi at this time still makes almost no sense to me as it doesn’t seem like something that can turn out well for the Oilers.Jesse is still 20 (almost 21) and his potential value to the Oilers vastly outweighs current acquisition return value.The return would almost for sure be underwhelming and what is the point in that? Arrows are what they are but lots of meh arrows for good prospects at this age that pop shortly thereafter.

    Preach!

  61. Jaxon says:

    Durag:
    Jaxon,

    I’d also argue that Benson’s draft pedigree took a hit because of his injury history. If he had a healthier couple of years prior to his draft year he probably would have gone mid-first round or higher.

    True, his draft pedigree took a hit… he was once up for exceptional player status and would have been the 2nd forward after Tavares to get that moniker. He broke records in Alberta AAA Midget. He was on his way to becoming a very high pick and then injuries hit and hit big. I think his ceiling has been hidden by his injuries and he’s lost a lot of development time which he is now catching up on.

  62. Fiveinatrailer says:

    Why hasn’t anyone recommended OP for the new GM job?

    It would probably be a cut in pay…

  63. Jaxon says:

    npanciroli:
    Jaxon, great posts today – I enjoyed reading them all and loved the insight on some prospects.

    Thanks… I dread draft season as it wastes so so much of my time. I love finding interesting players who are outperforming their ranking based on their stats and adjusted stats.

  64. Durag says:

    106 and 106:
    Shane Starrett played for the Air Force.

    What does that mean?

    Like he was a goalie ‘signed’ to an Air Force team, or he is part of the Air Force, then decided on a goaltending route?

    Does the Air Force only play Army, Marines, NAVY or is this just a world I don’t know?

    It’s a college and a NCAA team, so think more like Air Force academy. As to what conference they’re in or who they play on a regular basis I couldn’t tell you.

  65. Nit64 says:

    Fiveinatrailer:
    Why hasn’t anyone recommended OP for the new GM job?

    It would probably be a cut in pay…

    ~ It would probably be a cut in hours ~

  66. leadfarmer says:

    106 and 106:
    Shane Starrett played for the Air Force.

    What does that mean?

    Like he was a goalie ‘signed’ to an Air Force team, or he is part of the Air Force, then decided on a goaltending route?

    Does the Air Force only play Army, Marines, NAVY or is this just a world I don’t know?

    Well its like the Navy football team.
    You think you can get the defensive line in a submarine?

  67. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    It is tough for Lagesson to be kind of blocked a bit.His play this year warrants a real shot to compete for an NHL job but Jones and his plus skating and better puck moving and PP acumen will likely win the day over Willie for next year.

    On that other hand, what a great problem for the Oilers to have and something they have not had for, well, ever that I can remember – real NHL ready players waiting in the AHL for an opportunity.

    Instead of having players that aren’t quite ready play in the NHL due to lack of depth, we have NHL ready players in the AHL due to NHL ready depth.

    Injuries will happen and, if he continues to progress and show he’s NHL ready, Lagesson will get games next year.

    If Jones and Lagesson do prove to actually be NHL ready then that could trigger a trade of an incumbent veteran like Sekera but lets not move out the NHL d-men before the graduates have proven ready.

    It would think it to be at best very difficult to justify 5.5 for a third pairing D on a cap strapped team. We are at the point where we are paying in excess of nine million for our third pairing D without a legitimate second pairing right D on the roster. Go figure!

  68. jtblack says:

    Hockey Canada has named Winnipeg ICE captain Peyton Krebs and Lethbridge Hurricanes forward Dylan Cozens to the leadership group for Canada’s National Men’s Under-18 Team competing at the 2019 IIHF U18 World Championship in Örnsköldsvik and Umeå, Sweden.

    Krebs, an Okotoks, Alta. native will lead the team as captain while Cozens, a Whitehorse, Yukon product will serve as an alternate captain.

  69. Reja says:

    pts2pndr: It would think it to be at best very difficult to justify 5.5 for a third pairing D on a cap strapped team. We are at the point where we are paying in excess of nine million for our third pairing D without a legitimate second pairing right D on the roster. Go figure!

    Something has to shake loose on the D we have Dirt cheap 3L options and it wouldn’t surprise me if Bouchard makes it as well. Sell Columbus on the idea of the Jones duo as the second coming of the Potvin brothers and get a scoring winger as in Josh Anderson he’s fast and he can rifle the puck on net he would score 35 plus on the Oilers. He’s signed for another year at 1.85 Jones plus would get it done really love watching this player come on Keith make it happen.

  70. OriginalPouzar says:

    Nit64: ~ It would probably be a cut in hours ~

    Considering on this vacation I haven’t slept in past 2am due to work commitments and the 15 hour time change…….

  71. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr: It would think it to be at best very difficult to justify 5.5 for a third pairing D on a cap strapped team. We are at the point where we are paying in excess of nine million for our third pairing D without a legitimate second pairing right D on the roster. Go figure!

    I couldn’t care less how much cap is allocated to each pairing. The GM provides a 23 man roster they fits under the cap and the coach deploys it the best way to give the team a chance to win that night.

    Sure a $5.5M player on the 3rd pair is harsh for a cap team but the top pair makes $8.3M combined and the second pair has a $3.2M value contract on it.

    Sekera makes this team better, he shines and calms his partner which will also go a long ways she. We have a rookie paired on it.

  72. Bag of Pucks says:

    Ultimately I believe it’s the season ticket holders that will determine to what extent this organization cleans house, if at all.

    We know they don’t want to. They confirmed as much saying the new hire would have to fit with the culture and the continued verbal since that has attempted to paint Chiarelli as a lone actor. Given the verbal prior was that they decided everything as a group, you couldn’t find a more obvious example of people now trying to remove themselves from accountability. These chaps that know a thing or two about winning also know a thing or three about covering their tracks it seems.

    Isn’t it weird how they all have management titles but none of them apparently own any responsibility for the consistent failures in their respective departments? Man that Chiarelli must’ve micromanaged everything!

    And the efforts to protect themselves seem to be working. The most worrisome tell is it now appears the POHO hire is off the table. And they’re road testing the optics of KG as GM with Matheson also carrying water for this focus group exercise.

    If the market pushes back and votes with their wallets, than Katz may be forced to step in and force a more competent hire with a broader mandate for change. But realistically, this market almost never forces this franchise towards true accountability.

    They’ll hire KG or a GM that agrees to play nice with existing management and we’ll get yet another cosmetic fix for a systemic problem.

    The player exit interviews say it all. These young men know the management of this franchise is a complete clown college wasting the talents of their prime. The only ones with faint hope are the ones like Nuge who are up for parole soon.

  73. Pescador says:

    leadfarmer: Well its like the Navy football team.
    You think you can get the defensive line in a submarine?

    No,
    but they can get into a hoagie like nobody’s business

  74. Glass says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    I wonder how much more losing Katz will tolerate until cleaning house. Hypothetically, if McDavid were to ask out, would that be enough for Katz to reevaluate everything and clean house?

  75. Glass says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    I disagree. Don’t have the time now, but I wonder what the cap structure looked like for the playoff teams which made the 2nd round last year.

  76. texmex says:

    Glass,

    When his bottom line starts to slip into the red. The arena is sold out every game, no matter the shit show of a team that is put on the ice. Empty seats doesn’t mean the seat is not sold, just means the person never showed up, though that does hurt concession sales. I’g go out on a limb and say if McDavid were traded, the building would still be full.

    Until season tickets and boxes are not renewed, nothing will change. Unfortunately, there is a lineup a mile long with people waiting to buy any season tickets that aren’t renewed. There isn’t much incentive for Katz to clean house, unless he says to himself “imagine how much money I could make with a DECENT on ice product?”.

    The Oilers are a top 10 revenue generating team, paying for teams like the Islanders, Hurricanes, CLB who are playoff teams. It’s mind numbing to think about

  77. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: Something has to shake loose on the D we have Dirt cheap 3L options and it wouldn’t surprise me if Bouchard makes it as well. Sell Columbus on the idea of the Jones duo as the second coming of the Potvin brothers and get a scoring winger as in Josh Anderson he’s fast and he can rifle the puck on net he would score 35 plus on the Oilers. He’s signed for another year at 1.85 Jones plus would get it done really love watching this player come on Keith make it happen.

    Sure, if we could trade Jones and a 2nd rounder or Kassian or something like that for Josh Anderson, absolutely, no-brainer, go for it. Seems unlikely mind you. I think fans but more in to these “brother reunions” than any manager (except for very weird Sedin like situations).

    Yes, there may be a logdam in the 5-8 d-man position – we could also call it depth and injury cover and, also, at the same time, the AHL is not the NHL – I would like to have Jones, Lagesson, Persson, Bear, etc. prove their NHL readiness prior to “making room for them”.

    Also, Bouchard may prove to be NHL ready but, as we know, he is unable to do that in exhibition season as success and production by skilled prospects in exhibition means absolutely nothing with respect to NHL readiness. I have no doubt Bouchard will shine and produce during camp – he will likely look like one of the best d-men while guys like Larsson and Nurse work on timing, etc. At the same time, it doesn’t mean he is ready and he must go to the AHL given the depth the organization now has. No reason to risk any sort of rushing this player and delaying or stunting his development.

  78. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    OriginalPouzar: Sure, if we could trade Jones and a 2nd rounder or Kassian or something like that for Josh Anderson, absolutely, no-brainer, go for it.

    Stop trading actual NHL players. Period. Picks outside the first round, sure. Mid-level prospects, sure.

    Every time we trade actual NHL players, we need to make another trade to find, you guessed it, another actual NHL player to replace the one we traded. I believe this is called shuffling the deck chairs. If memory serves correctly, we have not done terribly well in the trade department lately. So any action that leads to the need to make a further trade should be avoided if at all possible.

  79. Woogie63 says:

    The Oilers might have a tough decision on next year’s coaches quicker than they want.

    TMac is going to get hired by a NHL team this week. I would suggest he will ask about Jay Woodcroft joining him.

    That may force a decision to have Woodcroft back in the NHL for the Oilers next year or lose him.

  80. pts2pndr says:

    Reja: Something has to shake loose on the D we have Dirt cheap 3L options and it wouldn’t surprise me if Bouchard makes it as well. Sell Columbus on the idea of the Jones duo as the second coming of the Potvin brothers and get a scoring winger as in Josh Anderson he’s fast and he can rifle the puck on net he would score 35 plus on the Oilers. He’s signed for another year at 1.85 Jones plus would get it done really love watching this player come on Keith make it happen.

    I like your thinking. I think we could also do business with Montreal to move Sekera. I also liked the buy low idea on Bionk from the Rangers to fill 2nd pairing right D short term.
    I like Sekera but he has lost a step and while he did well in a third pairing protected role we have much cheaper options.

  81. Bag of Pucks says:

    Glass:
    Bag of Pucks,

    I wonder how much more losing Katz will tolerate until cleaning house. Hypothetically, if McDavid were to ask out, would that be enough for Katz to reevaluate everything and clean house?

    You would think 12 out of 13 seasons as a loser would be too much for most franchises, but Katz is in a bubble in Hollywood insulated from criticism, hanging with his boyhood hero, and getting richer by the second.

    We’ve been sold this story that he loves hockey and wants this team to succeed beyond the bottom line. But i find it difficult to equate that image with the absentee landlord who’s rarely sighted. If you actually loved hockey, wouldn’t you showup to watch some of the bigger games and rub shoulders with Connor, Leon, etc.?

    I think Katz was smart enough to see how he could leverage fan loyalty and the public trough to build a new empire. I’ve yet to see any evidence he actually cares about the quality of the on ice product.

    Professional sports is the opiate of the masses. Darryl has just traded one drug for another.

  82. OriginalPouzar says:

    Decidedly Skeptical Fan: Stop trading actual NHL players. Period. Picks outside the first round, sure. Mid-level prospects, sure.

    Every time we trade actual NHL players, we need to make another trade to find, you guessed it, another actual NHL player to replace the one we traded. I believe this is called shuffling the deck chairs. If memory serves correctly, we have not done terribly well in the trade department lately. So any action that leads to the need to make a further trade should be avoided if at all possible.

    I don’t get that post at all – that suggested trade is a massive upgrade at wing (Kassian to Anderson) and using a prospect to get the upgrade. Also, if you re-read the trade propsoal is Jones plus either a 2nd rounder or Kassian or something like that.

    I’m quite OK with using Kassian to acquire a true top 6 winger.

  83. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar: Sure, if we could trade Jones and a 2nd rounder or Kassian or something like that for Josh Anderson, absolutely, no-brainer, go for it. Seems unlikely mind you. I think fans but more in to these “brother reunions” than any manager (except for very weird Sedin like situations).

    Yes, there may be a logdam in the 5-8 d-man position – we could also call it depth and injury cover and, also, at the same time, the AHL is not the NHL – I would like to have Jones, Lagesson, Persson, Bear, etc. prove their NHL readiness prior to “making room for them”.

    Also, Bouchard may prove to be NHL ready but, as we know, he is unable to do that in exhibition season as success and production by skilled prospects in exhibition means absolutely nothing with respect to NHL readiness. I have no doubt Bouchard will shine and produce during camp – he will likely look like one of the best d-men while guys like Larsson and Nurse work on timing, etc.At the same time, it doesn’t mean he is ready and he must go to the AHL given the depth the organization now has. No reason to risk any sort of rushing this player and delaying or stunting his development.

    I would agree if we could afford the luxury which Sekera and Russel are playing third pairing to a cap strapped team. If we had a legitimate second pairing right second pairing D and didn’t need upgrades on wingers you would be correct.

  84. JOFA says:

    “We” don’t see him as a good drafter. I see him as an average drafter at best. Just because he hasn’t completely shit the bed doesn’t make him good. Again I repeat….follow McKenzie’s list and you will do just as good if not better than the current monkey at the helm. Let’s stop the hyperbole. *see Tampa Bay Lightning for good drafting.

    blockquote cite=”comment-831298″>

    russ99:
    I thought KG was quoted when he was named interim GM that he wasn’t interested in the job permanently.

    IMO all this bluster is Nicholson a) running it up the flagpole and b) looking dumb in the press, something he’s wont to do.

    All those fans who want KG as GM (which can’t be many) and solely blaming Chiarelli as scapegoat can’t deny his involvement with the Koskinen extension and the post-Hitchcock trades.

    We all see him as a good drafter, from his track record with the Bruins and Oilers. That doesn’t qualify him for GM and doesn’t absolve him from being part of the groupthink for many of our poor moves, not to mention that hiring him as GM is the best way for the groupthink to continue, while an outside GM hire would bring in different voices and techniques, something that is sorely needed.

    As for Jesse, a year in the KHL or SEL would be a smart move by the player and the Oilers. We’re never going to get close to sunk costs in a trade this summer, and only Hitchcock thinks he’s ready for a regular NHL role. The Oilers get to kick the RFA can down the road a year and the player gets more time to develop.

  85. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I have no doubt Bouchard will shine and produce during camp – he will likely look like one of the best d-men while guys like Larsson and Nurse work on timing, etc. At the same time, it doesn’t mean he is ready and he must go to the AHL given the depth the organization now has.

    Not sure what “timing” Larsson and Nurse would be working on. Whatever it is, I would prefer to see them working on “shining and producing”. Both players could use some improvement there. Maybe the rookie can teach them something.

    I would have no problem with Bouchard making the club on merit after camp. It’s when you have NHL depth that making the jump from Junior to the NHL makes the most sense since you can actually provide him some measure of shelter along with lots of PP time. One reason JP has had difficulty is that we have not had NHL forward depth and have been unable to play him in a sheltered role. More AHL time for JP was advisable, but failing that, at a minimum he should have started out on a solid 3rd line (which the Oil do not have) for a full season.

  86. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    OriginalPouzar: I don’t get that post at all – that suggested trade is a massive upgrade at wing (Kassian to Anderson) and using a prospect to get the upgrade.Also, if you re-read the trade propsoal is Jones plus either a 2nd rounder or Kassian or something like that.

    I’m quite OK with using Kassian to acquire a true top 6 winger.

    I’m fine with the second, it’s the subsequent trade to replace Kassian that has me worried.

  87. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar: Sure, if we could trade Jones and a 2nd rounder or Kassian or something like that for Josh Anderson, absolutely, no-brainer, go for it. Seems unlikely mind you. I think fans but more in to these “brother reunions” than any manager (except for very weird Sedin like situations).

    Yes, there may be a logdam in the 5-8 d-man position – we could also call it depth and injury cover and, also, at the same time, the AHL is not the NHL – I would like to have Jones, Lagesson, Persson, Bear, etc. prove their NHL readiness prior to “making room for them”.

    Also, Bouchard may prove to be NHL ready but, as we know, he is unable to do that in exhibition season as success and production by skilled prospects in exhibition means absolutely nothing with respect to NHL readiness. I have no doubt Bouchard will shine and produce during camp – he will likely look like one of the best d-men while guys like Larsson and Nurse work on timing, etc.At the same time, it doesn’t mean he is ready and he must go to the AHL given the depth the organization now has. No reason to risk any sort of rushing this player and delaying or stunting his development.

    Both Russel and Sekera are left shot third pairing D replaceable by resigning Gravel as your number 7 D and promoting Lagesson. If Lagesson faulters you have Gravel. We have the cover. If either one were good cover for second pairing right D it would be different. We have went two years with Russel as our best alternative as second pairing right D with poor results. Time to move on.

  88. JimmyV1965 says:

    texmex:
    Glass,

    When his bottom line starts to slip into the red. The arena is sold out every game, no matter the shit show of a team that is put on the ice. Empty seats doesn’t mean the seat is not sold, just means the person never showed up, though that does hurt concession sales. I’g go out on a limb and say if McDavid were traded, the building would still be full.

    Until season tickets and boxes are not renewed, nothing will change. Unfortunately, there is a lineup a mile long with people waiting to buy any season tickets that aren’t renewed. There isn’t much incentive for Katz to clean house, unless he says to himself “imagine how much money I could make with a DECENT on ice product?”.

    The Oilers are a top 10 revenue generating team, paying for teams like the Islanders, Hurricanes, CLB who are playoff teams. It’s mind numbing to think about

    Again, Katz is leaving millions on the table for every playoff home game missed. His inaction isn’t about money.

  89. JimmyV1965 says:

    Decidedly Skeptical Fan: Stop trading actual NHL players. Period. Picks outside the first round, sure. Mid-level prospects, sure.

    Every time we trade actual NHL players, we need to make another trade to find, you guessed it, another actual NHL player to replace the one we traded. I believe this is called shuffling the deck chairs. If memory serves correctly, we have not done terribly well in the trade department lately. So any action that leads to the need to make a further trade should be avoided if at all possible.

    Trading Kassian plus a prospect for Josh Anderson is a no brainer. He’s a much better version of Kassian. Really doubt the Jackets do that though.

  90. pts2pndr says:

    Woogie63:
    The Oilers might have a tough decision on next year’s coaches quicker than they want.

    TMac is going to get hired by a NHL team this week.I would suggest he will ask about Jay Woodcroft joining him.

    That may force a decision to have Woodcroft back in the NHL for the Oilers next year or lose him.

    Why should we be in a hurry to the coaching recycle bin. I would guess that woodcroft will want a head coaching job not go back with McLellan. The new GM should be able to pick his own coach.

  91. London Jon says:

    So, the hometowns of our potential picks this year are interesting:

    Dach – St Albert
    Cozens – Yellowknife
    Krebs – Okotoks
    Zegras – New York
    Turcotte – Illinois
    Byram – Cranbrook, BC

    Two good Alberta boys there and Cozens who will think Edmonton is warm and exciting.

    I’m really warming to Krebs. I think you know you’ve got a very good player there and there’s a good chance that when you put him in a decent team his production goes through the roof and he’s a step above Cozens and Dach.

  92. ArmchairGM says:

    If we could get Drouin out of MTL with our 1st round pick, would you do it?

  93. Jaxon says:

    JOFA: We all see him as a good drafter, from his track record with the Bruins and Oilers.

    Not all of us. He was head of amateur scoring in Boston for 3 drafts. He did great on Pasternak (2014) and McAvoy (’16), and okay on Carlo (’15) and Heinen (’14), but he really shat the bed in 2015 when they had picks 13, 14 and 15 and he reached for Zboril, Debrusk, and Senyshyn. The next 3 players picked were Matt Barzal, Kyle Connor, and Thomas Chabot and they were pretty much the consensus picks. Debrusk was around 25th-30th on most lists, Senyshyn was ranked in the mid forties on most lists. They could have gotten him with their 5th pick at #45?!? And his record in Emotion doesn’t look so great either. Yamamoto might not turn out. There are some good arrows from Players like Satin, Maksimov, Samurokov, etc, but nobody has made it at this early stage. Bouchard might not even turn out and it’s not like picking Bouchard was some genius scouting move. He fell to them and not many would have picked differently. I’m not convinced McLeod will ever make it as he still hasn’t put up much offence even in his draft plus one (his production was seriously lacking in his draft year). Again, there are some good arrows on some picks and we won’t know about the goalies picked for probably another 2 or 3 years minimum. So really I don’t see a successful Oiler pick by Gretzky yet.

  94. Jaxon says:

    ArmchairGM:
    If we could get Drouin out of MTL with our 1st round pick, would you do it?

    Hell no!

  95. London Jon says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Ultimately I believe it’s the season ticket holders that will determine to what extent this organization cleans house, if at all.

    We know they don’t want to. They confirmed as much saying the new hire would have to fit with the culture and the continuedverbal since that has attempted to paint Chiarelli as a lone actor. Given the verbal prior was that they decided everything as a group, you couldn’t find a more obvious example of people now trying to remove themselves from accountability. These chaps that know a thing or two about winning also know a thing or three about covering their tracks it seems.

    Isn’t it weird how they all have management titles but none of them apparently own any responsibility for the consistent failures in their respective departments? Man that Chiarelli must’ve micromanaged everything!

    And the efforts to protect themselves seem to be working. The most worrisome tell is it now appears the POHO hire is off the table. And they’re road testing the optics of KG as GM with Matheson also carrying water for this focus group exercise.

    If the market pushes back and votes with their wallets, than Katz may be forced to step in and force a more competent hire with a broader mandate for change. But realistically, this market almost never forces this franchise towards true accountability.

    They’ll hire KG or a GM that agrees to play nice with existing management and we’ll get yet another cosmetic fix for a systemic problem.

    The player exit interviews say it all. These young men know the management of this franchise is a complete clown college wasting the talents of their prime. The only ones with faint hope are the ones like Nuge who are up for parole soon.

    KG is the wrong hire. He may turn out to be a great GM, somewhere, but if he is promoted here it’s a cosy choice so that no one rocks the boat and everyone keeps their jobs. Including people who have been shit at their jobs for a very long time.

    I’d be pretty sure that KG will stay as an AGM and do whatever he’s doing well in that role. Why promote him into a role he might not be up to. Particularly as he won’t be able to do what needs doing – cleaning house.

    If anyone thinks that without totally cleaning house this organisation will magically change from being badly run for a decade to being well run overnight then I’m afraid you’re living in a dream world.

    The big problem is that Katz and Nicholson are in control, and responsible for the last 4 years, and they are still flying the plane…

  96. Todd Macallan says:

    London Jon:
    So, the hometowns of our potential picks this year are interesting:

    Dach – St Albert
    Cozens – Yellowknife
    Krebs – Okotoks
    Zegras – New York
    Turcotte – Illinois
    Byram – Cranbrook, BC

    Two good Alberta boys there and Cozens who will think Edmonton is warm and exciting.

    I’m really warming to Krebs. I think you know you’ve got a very good player there and there’s a good chance that when you put him in a decent team his production goes through the roof and he’s a step above Cozens and Dach.

    Cozens = Whitehorse

    Being from there, everyone calls it Yellowknife, basically a running joke up there.

  97. digger50 says:

    Melman:
    If they hire a GM from outside, that person will have very little time before the draft and July 1 and, as we all know, there is a looaaaaad of work to do to fix this mess. I get that new GMs like to rebuild their staff, but it’s not feasible to prepare for the draft, make trades, do the UFA dance at the end of June, be active July 1 and fire/hire anywhere from 3-8 people in senior hockey positions. Not all of the people you want to bring in will be readily or willingly available.So what would a smart GM do? A smart GM would start by culling the least performing hockey ops areas, which for the Oilers is pro scouting, lack of analytics, and cap management. Right now amateur scouting and development is an organizational positive which is KG, and I believe MacTs, domain along with the fine work done by Woodcroft and his staff (does anyone know what Howson does? Anyone? Bueller? Anyone?).As a new GM coming in, you will need some existing hockey ops people and a smart one would keep the guys that are performing well, which includes KG and getting those guys to buy into being an integral part of the solution.

    Having said all that, if the new GM coming in is giving a list by the owner of untouchables and a set of handcuffs on his authority, then we can question whether he is a smart GM because a smart GM would not take a job with those restrictions.

    I particularly agree with your point about a new GM not having any reasonable amount of time to fix things over summer.

    I believe that person would be making a lot of choices based on what they learned, scouted, valued in their previous organization.

    Thus if McCrimmon comes in, he is more likely to value player scouting done from the Vegas org over past seasons than he based on scouts he is not familiar with. He is also more likely to base any quick internal moves based on senior voices within the Oilers.

    It is also critical the new GM already has the other GM’s on speed dial. Or if going with a young GM, we need an experienced POHO to open doors. There is little time to build relationships over the summer, we need someone who can act fast.

    I really think the best move is to hire two people. I doubt very much Nicholson can do much and he has a huge load to dump on the new guy. So one guy to sort out the overall direction (POHO) and the other (GM) focused purely on improving the pro team in a very short time.

  98. Reja says:

    pts2pndr: I like your thinking. I think we could also do business with Montreal to move Sekera. I also liked the buy low idea on Bionk from the Rangers to fill 2nd pairing right D short term.
    I like Sekera but he has lost a step and while he did well in a third pairing protected role we have much cheaper options.

    Acquire two fast shooting wingers and Benson and then you don’t have put Jesse and Yam In a position to fail. Montreal and Sekera would be like peanut butter and jam a great fit clear up cap space. If you.cant get rid of Lucic Russell Gagne or Manning.

  99. digger50 says:

    ArmchairGM:
    If we could get Drouin out of MTL with our 1st round pick, would you do it?

    I would try very hard to keep the number one. But I would trade 2nd and 3rd for him.

    If 2nd through 7th plus prospects just wont get us enough substantial improvement, I’m still on the trade the first train, but the target would be greater than Drouin, even if I had to add.

  100. digger50 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    It is tough for Lagesson to be kind of blocked a bit.His play this year warrants a real shot to compete for an NHL job but Jones and his plus skating and better puck moving and PP acumen will likely win the day over Willie for next year.

    On that other hand, what a great problem for the Oilers to have and something they have not had for, well, ever that I can remember – real NHL ready players waiting in the AHL for an opportunity.

    Instead of having players that aren’t quite ready play in the NHL due to lack of depth, we have NHL ready players in the AHL due to NHL ready depth.

    Injuries will happen and, if he continues to progress and show he’s NHL ready, Lagesson will get games next year.

    If Jones and Lagesson do prove to actually be NHL ready then that could trigger a trade of an incumbent veteran like Sekera but lets not move out the NHL d-men before the graduates have proven ready.

    They really, really should have had a look at Lagesson at the NHL level. Somebody is getting moved, its important to get it right. No room for error.

  101. godot10 says:

    ArmchairGM:
    If we could get Drouin out of MTL with our 1st round pick, would you do it?

    No. The 1st round draft pick is expansion protected.

    Plus, if Florida goes Bobrowsky and Panarin, Hoffman might be available at a bargain price because of cap issues.

    Look in the salary cap casualty bargain bin for stop gap wingers.

  102. godot10 says:

    digger50: I particularly agree with your point about a new GM not having any reasonable amount of time to fix things over summer.

    I believe that person would be making a lot of choices based on what they learned, scouted, valued in their previous organization.

    Thus if McCrimmon comes in, he is more likely to valueplayer scouting done from the Vegas org over past seasons than he based on scouts he is not familiar with. He is also more likely to base any quickinternal moves based on senior voices within the Oilers.

    It is also critical the new GM already has the other GM’s on speed dial. Or if going with a young GM, we need an experienced POHO to open doors. There is little time to build relationships over the summer, we need someone who can act fast.

    I really think the best move is to hire two people. I doubt very much Nicholson can do much and he has a huge load to dump on the new guy. So one guy to sort out the overall direction (POHO) and the other (GM) focused purely on improving the pro team in a very short time.

    A new GM coming in from an existing organization will not likely be allowed to be involved in the Oilers draft, apart for trades of picks.

  103. London Jon says:

    Todd Macallan: Cozens = Whitehorse

    Being from there, everyone calls it Yellowknife, basically a running joke up there.

    Ah, sorry!

  104. digger50 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I couldn’t care less how much cap is allocated to each pairing.The GM provides a 23 man roster they fits under the cap and the coach deploys it the best way to give the team a chance to win that night.

    Sure a $5.5M player on the 3rd pair is harsh for a cap team but the top pair makes $8.3M combined and the second pair has a $3.2M value contract on it.

    Sekera makes this team better, he shines and calms his partner which will also go a long ways she. We have a rookie paired on it.

    Sekera would do a good job, this is true, but if you had to make a sacrifice to gain cap space, he is very high on the list. Plan A and Plan B is still Lucic and Russel. If both plans are unsuccessful, Sekera is next up.

    If you had to choose:

    third pair D man Sekera at 5.5 (calm rookies)

    OR

    First line winger at 5.5 (score goals)

    Which would you choose?

  105. Alpine says:

    ArmchairGM,

    I’d rather go for someone like Danault or Lehkonen. Both are cheaper on the cap and wouldn’t cost a top 10 pick.

    Danault would definitely cost real assets though. A good prospect and 2nd rounder at minimum.

  106. Reja says:

    Bag of Pucks: You would think 12 out of 13 seasons as a loser would be too much for most franchises, but Katz is in a bubble in Hollywood insulated from criticism, hanging with his boyhood hero, and getting richer by the second.

    We’ve been sold this story that he loves hockey and wants this team to succeed beyond the bottom line. But i find it difficult to equate that image with the absentee landlord who’s rarely sighted. If you actually loved hockey, wouldn’t you showup to watch some of the bigger games and rub shoulders with Connor, Leon, etc.?

    I think Katz was smart enough to see how he could leverage fan loyalty and the public trough to build a new empire. I’ve yet to see any evidence he actually cares about the quality of the on ice product.

    Professional sports is the opiate of the masses. Darryl has just traded one drug for another.

    Does his son go to games he’s the heir apparent and probably has more stroke then myself and others think.

  107. digger50 says:

    godot10: A new GM coming in from an existing organization will not likely be allowed to be involved in the Oilers draft, apart for trades of picks.

    Technically.

    Then again, if I’m going to approve moving a pick, I will only do so if I approve of the target.

  108. Reja says:

    JimmyV1965: Trading Kassian plus a prospect for Josh Anderson is a no brainer. He’s a much better version of Kassian. Really doubt the Jackets do that though.

    Jackets have a lot of decisions on what direction they’re going.They could get knocked out in 6 games or be in the cup final Either way many decisions maybe they’ll pay above market to fix Jesse. Hire Esa Tikkanen to get a deal out of them lol

  109. digger50 says:

    Decidedly Skeptical Fan: Not sure what “timing” Larsson and Nurse would be working on. Whatever it is, I would prefer to see them working on “shining and producing”. Both players could use some improvement there.Maybe the rookie can teach them something.

    I would have no problem with Bouchard making the club on merit after camp. It’s when you have NHL depth that making the jump from Junior to the NHL makes the most sense since you can actually provide him some measure of shelter along with lots of PP time. One reason JP has had difficulty is that we have not had NHL forward depth and have been unable to play him in a sheltered role. More AHL time for JP was advisable, but failing that, at a minimum he should have started out on a solid 3rd line (which the Oil do not have) for a full season.

    Bouchard was picked specifically to be fast tracked.

    I have been critical on his perceived “give a dam” effort. Perceived. I’m coming around on him fast. 18 points in 7 games is excellent, its as if he just shifted another gear.

    I think hes penciled in over the summer and it is his roster spot to lose in the spring.

  110. Cassandra says:

    godot10: No.The 1st round draft pick is expansion protected.

    Plus, if Florida goes Bobrowsky and Panarin, Hoffman might be available at a bargain price because of cap issues.

    Look in the salary cap casualty bargain bin for stop gap wingers.

    Neither Drouin nor Hoffman have a track record of scoring at even strength.

    The Oilers aren’t going to get better acquiring players who aren’t as good as their reputations.

    Just get the guys with the highest pts/60 5v5. These are the players whose total points are deflated from lack of opportunity.

    Brett Connolly
    Jonas Donskoi
    Drake Berahowsky
    Oliver Bjorkstrand
    Ondrej Kase
    Richard Panik

    Those are the droids you are looking for.

    And take a flyer on teams that have given up on young players Oiler style. Someone like Nikolay Goldobin or Sonny Milano.

  111. Cassandra says:

    Alpine:
    ArmchairGM,

    I’d rather go for someone like Danault or Lehkonen. Both are cheaper on the cap and wouldn’t cost a top 10 pick.

    Danault would definitely cost real assets though. A good prospect and 2nd rounder at minimum.

    Both good choices, I suspect the price is higher.

  112. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr: I would agree if we could afford the luxury which Sekera and Russel are playing third pairing to a cap strapped team. If we had a legitimate second pairing right second pairing D and didn’t need upgrades on wingers you would be correct.

    Russell’s $4M is the main cap savings for the 2RD upgrade.

    Other cap will be available for a wing upgrade as they should not be playing in the expensive winger snack bracket. A Josh Anderson, as suggested, isn’t a major cap hit. I like the Brandon Pirri snack bracket, personally.

  113. Reja says:

    digger50: They really, really should have had a look at Lagesson at the NHL level. Somebody is getting moved, its important to get it right. No room for error.

    Not playing him the last half dozen games pissed me off that’s how you evaluate players. Beating Calgary I quess was more important boggles my mind and also not responding when Connor got hurt l love Kass but his linemate that’s being zooming him bigtime gets hurt bad and absolutely nothing. I would now trade him if someone wanted to overpay.

  114. Reja says:

    Cassandra: Neither Drouin nor Hoffman have a track record of scoring at even strength.

    The Oilers aren’t going to get better acquiring players who aren’t as good as their reputations.

    Just get the guys with the highest pts/60 5v5.These are the players whose total points are deflated from lack of opportunity.

    Brett Connolly
    Jonas Donskoi
    Drake Berahowsky
    Oliver Bjorkstrand
    Ondrej Kase
    Richard Panik

    Those are the droids you are looking for.

    And take a flyer on teams that have given up on young players Oiler style.Someone like Nikolay Goldobin or Sonny Milano.

    Anyone that is fast and has hands will have a field day with Leon and Connor

  115. Reja says:

    digger50: Bouchard was picked specifically to be fast tracked.

    I have been critical on his perceived “give a dam” effort. Perceived. I’m coming around on him fast. 18 points in 7 games is excellent, its as if he just shifted another gear.

    I think hes penciled in over the summer and it is his roster spot to lose in the spring.

    They wanted him bad a righty that was physically mature for his age that can headman passes on the fly and QB a powerplay what’s not to love about the pick.

  116. OriginalPouzar says:

    Decidedly Skeptical Fan: Not sure what “timing” Larsson and Nurse would be working on. Whatever it is, I would prefer to see them working on “shining and producing”. Both players could use some improvement there.Maybe the rookie can teach them something.

    I would have no problem with Bouchard making the club on merit after camp. It’s when you have NHL depth that making the jump from Junior to the NHL makes the most sense since you can actually provide him some measure of shelter along with lots of PP time. One reason JP has had difficulty is that we have not had NHL forward depth and have been unable to play him in a sheltered role. More AHL time for JP was advisable, but failing that, at a minimum he should have started out on a solid 3rd line (which the Oil do not have) for a full season.

    No matter what Bouchard does in camp, it would mean nothing as regards NHL readiness – we’ve seen year over year over year that young high end production in camp means nothing in that regard.

    He could go 1.5PPG in 5 preseason games and look great moving the puck – still wouldn’t mean he’s NHL ready.

    I think, given the depth of potential NHL ready d-men, d-men that have been playing the pro game and excelling, makes in an absolute no-brainer to send him to the AHL and leave him there for at least a few months.

    If he’s dominating the AHL come the turn of the calendar then, yes, absolutely, bring him up.

  117. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr: Both Russel and Sekera are left shot third pairing D replaceable by resigning Gravel as your number 7 D and promoting Lagesson. If Lagesson faulters you have Gravel. We have the cover. If either one were good cover for second pairing right D it would be different. We have went two years with Russel as our best alternative as second pairing right D with poor results. Time to move on.

    There definitely needs to be at least one contract out in the name of cap space. Assuming Lucic can’t be moved, it simply has to be Kris Russell over Andrej Sekera.

    That is the priroity moving forward and, hopefully, there is a 2RD being added – Stralman likely a pipe dream. Faulk for a one-year rental, probably not happening. Maybe Colin Miller.

    In any event, I don’t move Sekera in the name of cap space for no value with Kris Russell on the roster.

    I would love to re-sign Gravel, given his healthy scratch over the last 2 months, I would think he has zero desire to come back to the organization. Not to mention, with Brandon Manning under contract, there is no room to sign another depth d-man.

  118. JOFA says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Ultimately I believe it’s the season ticket holders that will determine to what extent this organization cleans house, if at all.

    We know they don’t want to. They confirmed as much saying the new hire would have to fit with the culture and the continuedverbal since that has attempted to paint Chiarelli as a lone actor. Given the verbal prior was that they decided everything as a group, you couldn’t find a more obvious example of people now trying to remove themselves from accountability. These chaps that know a thing or two about winning also know a thing or three about covering their tracks it seems.

    Isn’t it weird how they all have management titles but none of them apparently own any responsibility for the consistent failures in their respective departments? Man that Chiarelli must’ve micromanaged everything!

    And the efforts to protect themselves seem to be working. The most worrisome tell is it now appears the POHO hire is off the table. And they’re road testing the optics of KG as GM with Matheson also carrying water for this focus group exercise.

    If the market pushes back and votes with their wallets, than Katz may be forced to step in and force a more competent hire with a broader mandate for change. But realistically, this market almost never forces this franchise towards true accountability.

    They’ll hire KG or a GM that agrees to play nice with existing management and we’ll get yet another cosmetic fix for a systemic problem.

    The player exit interviews say it all. These young men know the management of this franchise is a complete clown college wasting the talents of their prime. The only ones with faint hope are the ones like Nuge who are up for parole soon.

    Gospel!!!

  119. digger50 says:

    Reja: Not playing him the last half dozen games pissed me off that’s how you evaluate players. Beating Calgary I quess was more important boggles my mindand also not responding when Connor got hurt l love Kass but his linemate that’s being zooming him bigtime gets hurt bad and absolutely nothing. I would know trade him if someone wanted to overpay.

    I like Kassian as well, he would have a roster spot until the team was good enough to bump him off, and that wont be anytime soon.

    That trip on McDavid was so stereotypical McDavid. It happens so fast its dam hard to see in real time. Its hard to respond when you need a slow motion reply to even see what happened.

    Having said this, if a Gambardella (rookie type) would have responded going full Badger of Gio, he would have earned himself a spot next year. (at least with the fans)

  120. digger50 says:

    Reja: They wanted him bad a righty that was physically mature for his age that can headman passes on the fly and QB a powerplay what’s not to love about the pick.

    And of course that he had a beard.

    Peter “whos the old guy with the beard?”

    Kieth “hes actually draft eligible”

    Peter “he looks ready, lets get him”

    Kieth “Okay”

  121. JOFA says:

    Jaxon,

    100% agree. Refer back to the post😉

  122. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    OriginalPouzar: No matter what Bouchard does in camp, it would mean nothing as regards NHL readiness – we’ve seen year over year over year that young high end production in camp means nothing in that regard.

    He could go 1.5PPG in 5 preseason games and look great moving the puck – still wouldn’t mean he’s NHL ready.

    I think, given the depth of potential NHL ready d-men, d-men that have been playing the pro game and excelling, makes in an absolute no-brainer to send him to the AHL and leave him there for at least a few months.

    If he’s dominating the AHL come the turn of the calendar then, yes, absolutely, bring him up.

    Your definition of “NHL ready” seems to require demonstrated AHL performance since nothing done anywhere else would appear to move the needle. I do not agree. And the depth of potential NHL ready d-men has absolutely nothing to do with Bouchard’s readiness. Not to mention that no one in Bakersfield brings what Bouchard does. A competent organization should be able to figure out if Bouchard is ready or not. Perhaps your real concern is that the Oil are not a competent organization. But that’s a different argument.

  123. stephen sheps says:

    Cassandra: Drake Berahowsky

    You mean Andre Burakovsky, right? The Drake (original version) retired some years ago now… 😉

  124. OriginalPouzar says:

    Benson and Starrett names to the AHL 2nd all-star team.

    Amazing.

  125. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Benson and Starrett names to the AHL 2nd all-star team.

    Amazing.

    Yes. And deserved.

  126. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Woogie63:
    The Oilers might have a tough decision on next year’s coaches quicker than they want.

    TMac is going to get hired by a NHL team this week.I would suggest he will ask about Jay Woodcroft joining him.

    That may force a decision to have Woodcroft back in the NHL for the Oilers next year or lose him.

    Exactly

    He’s green as a HC but has a lot of NHL experience, he knows how to function in the environment. If he’s got the chops (If they had anyone who could assess) I would strongly consider it.

    I’m not sure any of the young coaches have more to offer and enough of the red asses.

  127. Bulging Twine says:

    Boldy, Zegras, Krebs, Caufield among others in the upcoming u18’s.
    Hopefully CAN plays USA

  128. OriginalPouzar says:

    Graham McPhee will be an assistant captain for Boston College next season.

  129. Jaxon says:

    JOFA:
    Jaxon,

    100% agree. Refer back tothe post

    Ahhh, now I see we had the same point… I should have been replying to Russ99.

  130. Georgexs says:

    RE: Signing free agents or making off-season trades to bring in new forwards.

    Sample: 597 forwards from summer 2013 to summer 2018 who changed teams between seasons and who weren’t traded from their new team before the end of the season.

    I’m trying to find the odds for finding top-6 forwards. I define top-6 as scoring 0.6 points per game (PPG) or more.

    I broke the sample into 2 groups by asking: Did the forward have a career top-6 scoring rate before joining his new team?

    Let’s start with the forwards who DIDN’T score at a top-6 career rate before switching teams.

    How many total? 498

    How many scored at a top-6 rate in their first season with their new team? 28

    How many of these played at least 41 games? 25

    (Meaning, if each team had the same chance of finding one of these forwards in each off-season, then each team would find a breakthrough forward roughly once every 6 years.)

    Did the Oilers find such a forward in the past 6 summers?

    Yes, David Perron. Picked up from St. Louis for Paajarvi and a 2nd round and 4th round draft pick. Perron had scored at a 0.58 PPG before joining the Oilers. He scored 0.73 PPG in his first season. Traded the following season to PIT for Klinkhammer and PIT’s 1st pick in 2015…

    Which team has found the most breakthrough forwards?

    VGK. They got Marchessault, Karlsson, Perron, Smith, and Haula. Going into last season, all of these players had career averages below 0.6.

    Any team do it this year?

    2. CGY (Lindholm, a 0.50 scorer who shot up to 0.96) and MTL (Tatar, from 0.53 to 0.73)

    Can we do better by focusing on forwards with higher historical scoring?

    Yes. If we restrict our search to scorers who’ve scored at least 0.4 PPG over their career, then we go from 28 out of 498 to 21 out of 119. If we restrict it to 0.5 PPG or better, then we get to 16 out of 58.

    16 out of 58 seems much better than 28 out of 498, yes?

    Yes, except there were only 58 such players to choose from, or about 10 a season, only 2 or 3 of whom broke above top 6 in their debut with their new team.

    Any other factors to consider?

    Yes, age. Of the 28 breakthrough players, only 1 was 30+ (Soderberg to COL in 2015; he turned 30 in Oct of that year).

    I’ll look at the forwards who DID score at a top-6 career rate before switching teams next. Are they safer bets?

  131. Reja says:

    digger50: I like Kassian as well, he would have a roster spot until the team was good enough to bump him off, and that wont be anytime soon.

    That trip on McDavid was so stereotypical McDavid. It happens so fast its dam hard to see in real time. Its hard to respond when you need a slow motion reply to even see what happened.

    Having said this, if a Gambardella (rookie type) would have responded goingfull Badger of Gio, he would have earned himself a spot next year. (at least with the fans)

    Gio knew he was gonna trip him. Connor’s embarrassed him on a few occasions badly sad thing for Connor is that he handed the Norris to him right there and then. It’s your so called arch rivals they take out your Captain in a meaningless game and not a peep from anyone. I was embarrassed and I can guarantee you so was the OBC.

  132. Cassandra says:

    stephen sheps: You mean Andre Burakovsky, right? The Drake (original version) retired some years ago now…

    I am old. A name once given cannot be unlearned.

  133. Reja says:

    digger50: And of course that he had a beard.

    Peter “whos the old guy with the beard?”

    Kieth “hes actually draft eligible”

    Peter “he looks ready, lets get him”

    Kieth “Okay”

    I think they scored bigtime on Bouchard and Benson. Pete’s probably at the masters in the crowd getting hammered with Gretzky.

  134. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Reja: Gio knew he was gonna trip him. Connor’s embarrassed him on a few occasions badly sad thing for Connor is that he handed the Norris to him right there and then. It’s your so called arch rivals they take out your Captain in a meaningless game and not a peep from anyone. I was embarrassed and I can guarantee you so was the OBC.

    I think there might have been a talk about it pre game.

    The league’s code demands you play through it and if you can win enough you get the calls.

    Or for the Oilers some calls. Whining and going apeshit is the least helpful unless there is a compelling reason

  135. Doug McLachlan says:

    With respect to the draft, the situation from 3-10 reminds me of the 2014 debate between Rienhart, Bennett and Draisaitl. Think the Oilers made the right call there.

    Jersey takes Hughes, no debate. So Hughes.

    Rangers take Kakko, again don’t think this is a debate but Button’s love of Podkolzin is not his alone. Still, let’s say Kakko.

    Chicago wouldn’t be afraid of Podkolzin (given the Panarin experience) but may want to shore up their D with Byram or they may want the local kid, Turcotte (he was a Junior Blackhawk afterall).
    I’m going to say the “sentimental” pick of Turcotte and throw the draft into some disarray.

    Colorado (and I am glad that Ottawa didn’t have to give up more than a 4th with all the crap that organization has had to deal with) could go a lot of ways but let’s give them the choice of the D-man to pair with Makar and say that they take Byram.

    Los Angeles can’t believe that Podkolzin has fallen this far and takes the Russian at 5.

    Detroit now has their pick of the WHL and remaining USNDTP players and selects Dach at 6.

    Buffalo plays it straight and selects Cozens at 7.

    The Oilers has their pick of Zegras, Boldy or Krebs. Not bad and if someone in the top 7 has a hankering that either Broberg or Soderstrom is the next Lidstrom (looking at you Detroit) well then, even more intrigue.

  136. stephen sheps says:

    Cassandra: I am old.A name once given cannot be unlearned.

    very fair point my friend.

    At least you dug into the well of obscure ex-Oilers to do it.

    Now, who came back in the trade that sent him away (along with Eric Fichaud and Greg de Vries)? Neither player lasted long in Edmonton, but one player I think many remember quite fondly.

  137. Georgexs says:

    Cassandra: Neither Drouin nor Hoffman have a track record of scoring at even strength.

    The Oilers aren’t going to get better acquiring players who aren’t as good as their reputations.

    Just get the guys with the highest pts/60 5v5.These are the players whose total points are deflated from lack of opportunity.

    Brett Connolly
    Jonas Donskoi
    Drake Berahowsky
    Oliver Bjorkstrand
    Ondrej Kase
    Richard Panik

    Those are the droids you are looking for.

    And take a flyer on teams that have given up on young players Oiler style.Someone like Nikolay Goldobin or Sonny Milano.

    Player, Age, Career PPG

    Brett Connolly, 26, 0.36
    Jonas Donskoi, 26, 0.43
    Drake Berahowsky, 47, 0.27
    Oliver Bjorkstrand, 24, 0.49
    Ondrej Kase, 23, 0.49
    Richard Panik, 28, 0.54

    Nikolay Goldobin, 23, 0.37
    Sonny Milano, 22, 0.34

    I’m really pulling for Drake. It’d be a great story. But I also have my doubts.

    That’s the thing that most of these guys will have going against them if we’re expecting top-6 output next season. Doubt. Their own will be tough enough to deal with. How about that of their new coaches and teammates and let’s not forget, our “we know when and how to run you out of town” local media and fans?

    One thing that might have helped Lindholm in CGY was having an HC who appears to have really believed in him. That seems to make a difference to these young men.

  138. Georgexs says:

    Georgexs:
    RE: Signing free agents or making off-season trades to bring in new forwards.

    Sample: 597 forwards from summer 2013 to summer 2018 who changed teams between seasons and who weren’t traded from their new team before the end of the season.

    I’m trying to find the odds for finding top-6 forwards. I define top-6 as scoring 0.6 points per game (PPG) or more.

    I broke the sample into 2 groups by asking: Did the forward have a career top-6 scoring rate before joining his new team?

    Let’s start with the forwards who DIDN’T score at a top-6 career rate before switching teams.

    How many total? 498

    How many scored at a top-6 rate in their first season with their new team? 28

    How many of these played at least 41 games? 25

    (Meaning, if each team had the same chance of finding one of these forwards in each off-season, then each team would find a breakthrough forward roughly once every 6 years.)

    Did the Oilers find such a forward in the past 6 summers?

    Yes, David Perron. Picked up from St. Louis for Paajarvi and a 2nd round and 4th round draft pick. Perron had scored at a 0.58 PPG before joining the Oilers. He scored 0.73 PPG in his first season. Traded the following season to PIT for Klinkhammer and PIT’s 1st pick in 2015…

    Which team has found the most breakthrough forwards?

    VGK. They got Marchessault, Karlsson, Perron, Smith, and Haula. Going into last season, all of these players had career averages below 0.6.

    Any team do it this year?

    2. CGY (Lindholm, a 0.50 scorer who shot up to 0.96) and MTL (Tatar, from 0.53 to 0.73)

    Can we do better by focusing on forwards with higher historical scoring?

    Yes. If we restrict our search to scorers who’ve scored at least 0.4 PPG over their career, then we go from 28 out of 498 to 21 out of 119. If we restrict it to 0.5 PPG or better, then we get to 16 out of 58.

    16 out of 58 seems much better than 28 out of 498, yes?

    Yes, except there were only 58 such players to choose from, or about 10 a season, only 2 or 3 of whom broke above top 6 in their debut with their new team.

    Any other factors to consider?

    Yes, age. Of the 28 breakthrough players, only 1 was 30+ (Soderberg to COL in 2015; he turned 30 in Oct of that year).

    I’ll look at the forwards who DID score at a top-6 career rate before switching teams next. Are they safer bets?

    One more thing to add here.

    From above, of the 58 players who scored at a 0.5+ PPG for their career before switching teams, 16 performed at a top-6 pace in their first season with their new team.

    How many simply did better than their career average? Just 18. Meaning 40 of the 58 did worse than their career average in their first season with their new team.

    I think this has a lot to do with change in context. You have a player like Connolly having a career year (coincidentally when his contract is up) in one context. He draws interest. Someone finds a way to spin his numbers as evidence of a real uptick in performance. He’s going to perform at the new level in any context. He’s the REAL DEAL.

    The numbers here say he’s much more likely to be NOT THE REAL DEAL. Teams that pay or overpay for the player’s services are likely going to get less than they paid for.

  139. Reja says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I think there might have been a talk about it pre game.

    The league’s code demands you play through it and if you can win enough you get the calls.

    Or for the Oilers some calls. Whining and going apeshit is the least helpful unless there is a compelling reason

    Like taking out Bobby Orr’s knee I mean Connor’s that was a disgrace and the players wearing the Oiler jersey all know it. I hope we get a Coach that instilles a heartbeat and emotion and isn’t all systems coach with a nice hairdo.

  140. YKOil says:

    Georgexs: Player, Age, Career PPG
    Jonas Donskoi, 26, 0.43
    Richard Panik, 28, 0.54

    One thing that might have helped Lindholm in CGY was having an HC who appears to have really believed in him. That seems to make a difference to these young men.

    I like both Donskoi and Panik. Would pursue both. Payment is the issue. Staying away from Dzingel – his numbers put him out of reach.

    Vegas used belief to great effect last year. Multiple players getting lots and lots and lots of rope and they played it out beautifully. We gave some rope to Puljujarvi, just enough to hang him.

  141. Biggus Dickus says:

    Looking forward to Eberle SIUTBOHC

  142. Gerta Rauss says:

    An all star cast on Emmy Lou’s album

    Willie Nelson
    Garth Hudson
    Rick Danko
    Ricky Skaggs
    Albert Lee

  143. Nit64 says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    An all star cast on Emmy Lou’s album

    Willie Nelson
    Garth Hudson
    Rick Danko
    Ricky Skaggs
    Albert Lee

    Oil fans are at: Two More Bottles of Wine and I Ain’t Living Long Like This.

    What they want is New Cut Road and Easy From Now On.

  144. Ice Sage says:

    Nit64: Oil fans are at: Two More Bottles of Wine and I Ain’t Living Long Like This.

    What they want is New Cut Road and Easy From Now On.

    They need to hire someone who digs ‘Old Town Road’

    Leafs opportunistic like the ’06 Oil vs Wings.

  145. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar: There definitely needs to be at least one contract out in the name of cap space.Assuming Lucic can’t be moved, it simply has to be Kris Russell over Andrej Sekera.

    That is the priroity moving forward and, hopefully, there is a 2RD being added – Stralman likely a pipe dream.Faulk for a one-year rental, probably not happening.Maybe Colin Miller.

    In any event, I don’t move Sekera in the name of cap space for no value with Kris Russell on the roster.

    I would love to re-sign Gravel, given his healthy scratch over the last 2 months, I would think he has zero desire to come back to the organization. Not to mention, with Brandon Manning under contract, there is no room to sign another depth d-man.

    Brandon Manning is not a depth dman. He’s a guy you bury deep and when you need a defenseman you skip over him multiple times before you consider calling him up

  146. Gerta Rauss says:

    leadfarmer: Brandon Manning is not a depth dman.He’s a guy you bury deep and when you need a defenseman you skip over him multiple times before you consider calling him up

    The Oilers “chump and dump”..?

  147. Glovjuice says:

    Todd Macallan:
    My humble submission for future title for AHL post:

    Space to Bakersfield
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZhWMS9PdUtY

    by Black Mountain, fantastic throwback/psychedelic rock from Vancouver

    Fantastic band. Seen them many times (new album out soon). Check their side project Pink Mountaintops.

  148. flyfish1168 says:

    My worst nightmare would be phlegms versus make beleafs playing for the SC. What is yours?

  149. Nit64 says:

    Ice Sage: They need to hire someone who digs ‘Old Town Road’

    Leafs opportunistic like the ’06 Oil vs Wings.

    Marner’s opportunistic tonight (and this summer!) . #MarchandBrinksTweetAlert

  150. Lowetide says:

    Speaking of bands named Mountain
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oa7pDgF8rrY

  151. leadfarmer says:

    Gerta Rauss: The Oilers “chump and dump”..?

    Our resident bear was the only person that liked that acquisition
    We could have bought out Caggula for almost nothing
    I guess it wouldn’t be the Oilers if they didn’t have a d man with a rich contract in the minors

  152. JimmyV1965 says:

    Georgexs: One more thing to add here.

    From above, of the 58 players who scored at a 0.5+ PPG for their career before switching teams, 16 performed at a top-6 pace in their first season with their new team.

    How many simply did better than their career average? Just 18. Meaning 40 of the 58 did worse than their career average in their first season with their new team.

    I think this has a lot to do with change in context. You have a player like Connolly having a career year (coincidentally when his contract is up) in one context. He draws interest. Someone finds a way to spin his numbers as evidence of a real uptick in performance. He’s going to perform at the new level in any context. He’s the REAL DEAL.

    The numbers here say he’s much more likely to be NOT THE REAL DEAL. Teams that pay or overpay for the player’s services are likely going to get less than they paid for.

    Excellent posts. You’re knocking it out of the ballpark.

  153. Todd Macallan says:

    Glovjuice: Fantastic band. Seen them many times (new album out soon). Check their side project Pink Mountaintops.

    Awesome that they have a new album out soon, and yes, definitely have many Pink Mountaintops albums as well!

  154. leadfarmer says:

    Biggus Dickus:
    Looking forward to Eberle SIUTBOHC

    Eberles a SLUT? Who would have known?

  155. leadfarmer says:

    What’s all the focus on amateur drafting for the next Oilers GM
    Willis has another article on the athletic
    Make them head of amateur scouting. Pay them double what they are making
    But just because you are an amateur scout does not make you a good GM
    Also our amateur scouting hasn’t been too bad
    Our pro scouting has been something else
    So maybe get the top pro scout instead of the amateur

  156. Todd Macallan says:

    Lowetide:
    Speaking of bands named Mountain
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oa7pDgF8rrY

    This community needs a like button in the comments.

  157. who says:

    I’m not sure that the goal next year should be to make the playoffs whatever the cost. But if the goal is to be a playoff team next year I think the Oilers will have to sign at least one significant free agent. They simply don’t have enough assets to trade themselves into the playoffs. Unless they absolutely empty the cupboards.
    This will recquire some cap room.
    To that end I would propose the following trade.
    Lucic, Gagner, Manning, Bear and Yamamoto to Ottawa for Bobby Ryan.
    Year 1 Ottawa eats 3.5 million
    Year 2 Edmonton eats 1.8
    Year 3 Edmonton eats 1.8
    Year 4 Ottawa eats 6
    Bear and Yamamoto are the carrots to convince Ottawa to eat the 6 million in the last year. And give up the easier buyout and better anchor contract.
    Ryan and Lucic would both have to waive NMCs but hey, if everyone else can fantasize about trading Lucic to Ottawa, why can’t I?

  158. Glovjuice says:

    Todd Macallan: Awesome that they have a new album out soon, and yes, definitely have many Pink Mountaintops albums as well!

    Well done.

  159. Alfieboy says:

    Anyone else hear that Lucic broke his ankle in a bar fight in Calgary last weekend? Needed surgery. That’ll do wonders for his his foot speed next year. Ugh.

  160. Ice Sage says:

    Alfieboy:
    Anyone else hear that Lucic broke his ankle in a bar fight in Calgary last weekend? Needed surgery. That’ll do wonders for his his foot speed next year. Ugh.

    Did giordano push him?

    Maybe his contract has a Roethlisberger clause and can be ‘disciplined’ for a year?

  161. flyfish1168 says:

    Alfieboy:
    Anyone else hear that Lucic broke his ankle in a bar fight in Calgary last weekend? Needed surgery. That’ll do wonders for his his foot speed next year. Ugh.

    LTIR

  162. Gerta Rauss says:

    Ice Sage: Did giordano push him?

    LoL

  163. Bag of Pucks says:

    Man, it seems like every player on this Flames squad goes hard to the paint. Wish you could say that about the Oilers.

  164. Bulging Twine says:

    Woogie63:
    The Oilers might have a tough decision on next year’s coaches quicker than they want.

    TMac is going to get hired by a NHL team this week.I would suggest he will ask about Jay Woodcroft joining him.

    That may force a decision to have Woodcroft back in the NHL for the Oilers next year or lose him.

    Good thought. I wonder if Woodcroft wants to pursue head coaching now, in which case his best bet would be to stay as an AHL head coach.

  165. Bulging Twine says:

    Friedman saying McDavid went for 2nd and 3rd opinions. No word on results yet.

  166. Jethro Tull says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    An all star cast on Emmy Lou’s album

    Willie Nelson
    Garth Hudson
    Rick Danko
    Ricky Skaggs
    Albert Lee

    Her and Mark Knopfler, “This Is Us” is a great tune.

  167. Gerta Rauss says:

    Bulging Twine:
    Friedman saying McDavid went for 2nd and 3rd opinions.No word on results yet.

    that information does not inspire a lot of confidence

    Looks great Connor, you’re good to go..!… doesn’t require a 2nd and 3rd opinion

  168. Réal Goudenyéu says:

    Mikko should get glove lessons from Smith.

  169. Reja says:

    Bulging Twine:
    Friedman saying McDavid went for 2nd and 3rd opinions.No word on results yet.

    Gio might of fucked his knee will see glad we had a response from kass Nurse etc way to show those Flames. Now they can rest up for 6 months after taking it to the Flames and showing their Captain and leader we have your back.

  170. texmex says:

    JimmyV1965: Again, Katz is leaving millions on the table for every playoff home game missed. His inaction isn’t about money.

    Katz is worth 3100 million (I.e. 3.1 billion). Any money he receives during playoff games is shared amongst 31 nhl teams as playoff sales contribute to HRR. Katz is not worried about a million here or there I promise you. With the arena deal he has with the city, he probably makes more when a concert is played at Rogers instead of the oilers. Just something to think about when you say Katz is worried about money.

  171. texmex says:

    Bulging Twine:
    Friedman saying McDavid went for 2nd and 3rd opinions.No word on results yet.

    Surgery v no surgery??!?

    That’s messed up

  172. JimmyV1965 says:

    texmex: Katz is worth 3100 million (I.e. 3.1 billion). Any money he receives during playoff games is shared amongst 31 nhl teams as playoff salescontribute to HRR. Katz is not worried about a million here or there I promise you. With the arena deal he has with the city, he probably makes more when a concert is played at Rogers instead of the oilers. Just something to think about when you say Katz is worried about money.

    That’s precisely what I’m saying. Katz allows this team to flounder for reasons other than profit. If he was only concerned about maximizing profit, you would think he would be more concerned about making the playoffs, which is the most profitable time to be playing. Not sure what HRR has to do with it. 50% of $2 mill in extra playoff revenue is still better than no playoff revenue. And he doesn’t carry extra player costs in the post season.

  173. OriginalPouzar says:

    digger50: Sekera would do a good job, this is true, but if you had to make a sacrifice to gain cap space, he is very high on the list. Plan A and Plan B is still Lucic and Russel. If both plans are unsuccessful, Sekera is next up.

    If you had to choose:

    third pair D man Sekera at 5.5 (calm rookies)

    OR

    First line winger at 5.5 (score goals)

    Which would you choose?

    Sekera will play plenty of top 4 minutes when injury hits – and, of course, injury will hit. Without Sekera to fill in for injuries, we are looking at the likes of Benning and/or rookies in the top 4 with more rookies now in the bottom pairing – it is a domino type thing.

    Manning, Gagner – I move them before Sekera unless there is solid value coming back for Reg.

  174. OriginalPouzar says:

    digger50: Bouchard was picked specifically to be fast tracked.

    I have been critical on his perceived “give a dam” effort. Perceived. I’m coming around on him fast. 18 points in 7 games is excellent, its as if he just shifted another gear.

    I think hes penciled in over the summer and it is his roster spot to lose in the spring.

    Nicholson has talked expressly, numerous times over the last 6-8 weeks, about allowing the higher end prospects more AHL time and has specifically mentioned Bouchard, again, a number of times, as the example.

    Of course, there will be a new GM who will be making the final roster decisions but, any initial drafting to fast track is a plan that was erased when the old GM was let go. There is zero reason to “fast track” when there are 3-5 potential NHL ready prospects, many with PP acumen and puck moving as part of their skillests, that have been developing in pro.

  175. Bulging Twine says:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tH0tfZA0k3c

    Adam Boqvist gets a mentor. Seems helpful.

  176. OriginalPouzar says:

    Decidedly Skeptical Fan: Your definition of “NHL ready” seems to require demonstrated AHL performance since nothing done anywhere else would appear to move the needle. I do not agree.And the depth of potential NHL ready d-men has absolutely nothing to do with Bouchard’s readiness. Not to mention that no one in Bakersfield brings what Bouchard does. A competent organization should be able to figure out if Bouchard is ready or not. Perhaps your real concern is that the Oil are not a competent organization. But that’s a different argument.

    Exhibition season does absolutely nothing to demonstrate NHL readiness – that’s been essentially proven, year over year.

    Of course, overall depth does not have anything to do with Bouchard being NHL-ready, however, he will be a rookie pro, the jump from the CHL to the AHL it big let alone to the NHL, and we have seen at least one of the d-men show he is all-but NHL ready (Jones). There are guys that have been playing pro hockey in various pro leagues and excelling – they are older, they know pro hockey and they look to be close to ready. Some of them definitely have skill-sets that are similar to Bouchard – Bear, Jones and Persson are puck movers with PP acumen and plus shots.

    The overall depth does not prove that Bouchard is not NHL ready but it gives the organization the opportunity to allow the kid to get used to the pro game, to get used to playing against men, to get used to the speed, the grind, the strength of the opponents, etc. without the pressure of the NHL – there are others that have spent 2 seasons in pro hockey doing just that – similar skill sets and excelling in pro hockey.

    There is zero reason to try Bouchard out in October. Why risk slowing or stunting his development when there is no reason to do so. If he’s killing it in the AHL come the turn of the calendar, by all means, bring him up.

  177. Professor Q says:

    Réal Goudenyéu:
    Mikko should get glove lessons from Smith.

    Get a ball launcher machine, angle it to his glove side, and set it. Have him try to stop as many as he can.

    While wearing Dubnyk’s beer goggles.

  178. Professor Q says:

    Bulging Twine:
    Friedman saying McDavid went for 2nd and 3rd opinions.No word on results yet.

    Nothing wrong with being thorough.

  179. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ok – I’ve been wrong on Providence being “done” but they are officially done for now so we can talk about getting Hayden Hawkey (and Vincent Desharnais) under contract.

    He (they) can simply not sign and become UFAs on August 15 – really hope they sign Hawkey.

    No news on Marino yet and if he wants to sign, leave college early and become a UFA or go back for his senior year.

  180. Professor Q says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Could this influx have come at a better time in the managerial state of Edmonton?

  181. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ralph Kruger has left Saints FC – very interesting.

  182. v4ance says:

    Southampton FC @SouthamptonFC

    #SaintsFC can confirm that Chairman Ralph Krueger has departed the club.

    https://southamptonfc.com/news/2019-04-12/southampton-football-club-announcement-chairman-ralph-krueger

    !
    !
    !

    Ralph Krueger is a free agent!

  183. v4ance says:

    NiP dohfOs (Martin Lundén) @dohfOs

    More NiP dohfOs (Martin Lundén) Retweeted Southampton FC

    Should be noted that the timing for Saints to announce this is NOT following the norm for a Premier League club. Meaning.. Krueger is either _very_ close on signing somewhere else or it’s already a done deal which forced Saints to do this announcement now. #Oilers anyone?

  184. Todd Macallan says:

    v4ance:
    NiP dohfOs (Martin Lundén) @dohfOs

    More NiP dohfOs (Martin Lundén) Retweeted Southampton FC

    Should be noted that the timing for Saints to announce this is NOT following the norm for a Premier League club. Meaning.. Krueger is either _very_ close on signing somewhere else or it’s already a done deal which forced Saints to do this announcement now. #Oilers anyone?

    He would be my pick for POHO or a Nicholson replacement, then hire Gilman and start making all the changes.

  185. Professor Q says:

    As much as I’d want that, do we really expect this of this particular Oilers group?

  186. Jaxon says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Ok – I’ve been wrong on Providence being “done” but they are officially done for now so we can talk about getting Hayden Hawkey (and Vincent Desharnais) under contract.

    He (they) can simply not sign and become UFAs on August 15 – really hope they sign Hawkey.

    No news on Marino yet and if he wants to sign, leave college early and become a UFA or go back for his senior year.

    I could see Marino going back for his senior year when he realizes how blocked he might be in the Oilers system I don’t think he wants to risk winding up in the ECHL. With Petrovic and Manning possibly being sent down permanently, Lowe as a veteran presence, Jones, Lagesson & Bear fighting for first call up, and Persson, Bouchard and Samorukov all going pro it seems pretty crowded with better D than Marino. I don’t think he’s done enough yet to earn a contract from another team as an UFA. He’s in a somewhat similar position to Berglund who has one year left on his SHL contact. If they have somewhere to play and get lots of minutes they should stay. And that’s not even considering Logan Day who has earned an NHL contact. The other college and USHL D should stay in the NCAA and improve play against mature players wait for the log jam to clear up a bit through trades and expiring contacts.

  187. Todd Macallan says:

    Professor Q,

    No, but him coming in and canning MacT over Skype would go farther to repairing my trust in them than I’d care to admit.

  188. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jaxon: I could see Marino going back for his senior year when he realizes how blocked he might be in the Oilers system I don’t think he wants to risk winding up in the ECHL. With Petrovic and Manning possibly being sent down permanently, Lowe as a veteran presence, Jones, Lagesson & Bear fighting for first call up, and Persson, Bouchard and Samorukov all going pro it seems pretty crowded with better D than Marino. I don’t think he’s done enough yet to earn a contract from another team as an UFA. He’s in a somewhat similar position to Berglund who has one year left on his SHL contact. If they have somewhere to play and get lots of minutes they should stay. And that’s not even considering Logan Day who has earned an NHL contact. The other college and USHL D should stay in the NCAA and improve play against mature players wait for the log jam to clear up a bit through trades and expiring contacts.

    Don’t disagree – one thing though, Petrovic is a UFA and almost assuredly will not be re-signed.

  189. Lowetide says:

    For The Athletic: Ron Hextall’s patient approach as GM would be shock to Oilers’ system

    https://theathletic.com/917281/2019/04/12/lowetide-ron-hextalls-patient-approach-as-gm-would-be-shock-to-oilers-system/

  190. Jaxon says:

    OriginalPouzar: Don’t disagree – one thing though, Petrovic is a UFA and almost assuredly will not be re-signed.

    Strange… Elite Prospects has him signed through 19-20:
    https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/32778/alexander-petrovic

  191. frjohnk says:

    Jaxon: Strange… Elite Prospects has him signed through 19-20:
    https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/32778/alexander-petrovic

    he is UFA this summer.
    https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/oilers

  192. ArmchairGM says:

    Krueger, huh… we can only hope that another failed franchise doesn’t grab him first. I would hate to see him lead Ottawa, Buffalo or Florida to respectability while we continue to flounder. Or worse: Vancouver.

  193. Professor Q says:

    I noticed that Marner got a PS for getting tripped en route to the net.

    I wonder why McDavid didn’t (well, or have a proxy for him), even though his was a leg sweep?

    Hmmm.

  194. ArmchairGM says:

    Another BUY LOW candidate for puck-moving 2RD who is mis-cast and under-appreciated (to put it mildly):

    Nikita Zaitsev. Ok, don’t laugh, I’m serious. This guy played 39% against elites this year with 41.01 OZS% in those minutes, yet he produced a 48.3 CF%, 48.4 DFF% and 59.3 GF%.

    Overall this year he played the 2nd most minutes on the team (D category), with 49.9 CF%, 49.4 DFF% and 50.0 GF% despite 41.80 OZS% – while every other defender got 48+ OZS.

    In 2016-17 (his first year in the league), Zaitsev played 43.5% against elites – the most on the team in both percentage and total minutes. Rielly was the only one close but Zaitsev got more defensive zone starts (46.81%). He was 50.9 CF%, 49.8 DFF% and 43.3 GF% in those minutes. Welcome to the NHL, kid.

    In 2017-18 his TOI against elites was reduced to 36% (3rd on team) and his OZS% raised to 47.5% and he absolutely killed it, getting a 74.2 GF%. His Corsi and Fenwick were slightly under 50 though, so maybe he was just running hot.

    This is a guy who, at least in the eyes of most Leafs fans, would be a cap dump, available along with a pick for Future Considerations. Or maybe they’d take Russell back? They DO need players who can defend on the right side after all.

    Downside: his scoring has decreased every year, and he has 5 more years x $4.5M.

    Discuss.

  195. lenko says:

    ArmchairGM:
    frjohnk,

    So… you’re saying we get another chance with Anton Lander?

    There are no carbon copies. Lander didn’t bring success with him to the NHL even though Marody’s and his numbers were similar. I see Marody as an excellent puck distributor.

  196. Fauntleroy says:

    Georgexs,

    This is a relatively straightforward though, to my eyes, technically sound method of finding players based on the principle of past results = good possibility of future results. One does wonder how often the Oilers pro scouts use such simple methodology and how it is employed in their decision making. If I were the GM I would want a big spreadsheet constantly updated with lists of guys like this so that if the opportunity came up I could fill the team’s needs quickly and cheaply. I would love to see the Oilers’ decision making machine and how it compares.

  197. Fauntleroy says:

    Todd Macallan,

    It would mean some awkward sideways glances at MacT in the hallway, that’s for sure.

  198. Kmart99 says:

    Tyler Benson is basically a shoe in to crack the roster next year if the Oilers are following successful strategies from teams around the league. I don’t think draft pedigree should be as large a factor as LT is making it… simply because by the age of 20-21 you can often just assess the accuracy of league scouts based on hindsight.

    Why not just use 20 year old AHL seasons, regardless of pedigree?

    Lots of 20 yr old AHL comps out there with similar p/g as Benson. The following NHL season pretty much always sees them make the roster. The production in the NHL is what’s unpredictable.
    Ranging from 25pts to 55pts most of the time.

    If Benson plays 75-82 games and puts up 10-25-35 next season, that shouldn’t surprise anyone.

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca