(You’re) Running Wild

It’s easy to forget how things used to be, and it’s also easy to be overwhelmed by the voices who say everything’s wrong when in truth sunshine finds its way into the very room you’re sitting in. The downbeat boys aren’t always right, it just seems that way.

The trick is to find whatever truth is, not be swayed by voices yes or no. What is positive about the Edmonton Oilers?

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group.INSANE NEW OFFER IS HERE!

  • New Lowetide: Ron Hextall’s patient approach as GM would be shock to Oilers’ system
  • New Jonathan Willis: Michael Futa’s success at the NHL Draft makes him a credible GM candidate for the Oilers
  • Lowetide: The Oilers possible summer trade pieces, and which longtime players might be saying goodbye.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ten prospects likely to be available when the Oilers make their first-round pick.
  • Jonathan Willis: Bob Nicholson mostly says the right things, but stalls on making changes to the Oilers.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The pressure’s squarely on Bob Nicholson to make right GM hire for Oilers.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers Report Cards: Few passing grades remain in season full of failure.
  • Lowetide: How winning the draft lottery and drafting Jack Hughes could transform the Oilers.
  • Lowetide: The Oilers have a trio of Condors blue pushing and all three are tracking well. How does this group compare to the Petry, Chorney, Wild college men from a decade ago?
  • Jonathan Willis: Connor McDavid’s frustration should be seen by the Oilers as a warning of possible disaster.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers have another problem to solve: Lifting the cloud over a clearly frustrated Connor McDavid
  • Lowetide: What Mark Hunter’s draft record in Toronto means for his Oilers GM candidacy.
  • Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers, the republic of Finland and the 2019 draft.
  • Lowetide: The Oilers made a rare move and shopped the QMJHL at the 2018 draft. It could happen again.
  • Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers draft early, the WHL is loaded and there’s a lot of history.
  • Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers and the OHL.

THE MINORS

  • Elliotte Friedman, November 2017: The first is unhappiness with the way players are developing at AHL Bakersfield. I did not see Ziyat Paigin myself, but there is disappointment that he has asked to go back to Russia, especially after a summer where he stayed to train in Edmonton. Rightly or wrongly, there is a feeling too many of their prospects are not panning out there. (Sportsnet.ca)

There are encouraging signs. The leading scorer for the AHL Bakersfield Condors in 2015-16 was 30-year old Matt Ford. This season? It’s 20-year old Tyler Benson. That’s a good trend.

MAKING THE GRADE IN TIME TO HELP

If you go back to the 2015-16 Condors and make a list of players from that team who have found a way to play in 100 or more NHL games since, you see a rather long list of players who arrived as NHL regulars after exiting the system (plus a goalie). Just for fun, let’s name the general manager at the time of each player’s entry into the pipeline:

  1. R Tyler Pitlick 158 (Steve Tambelli)
  2. L Jujhar Khaira 154 (Steve Tambellini)
  3. LD Jordan Oesterle 145 (Craig MacTavish)
  4. LD Brad Hunt 106 (Steve Tambellini)
  5. R Anton Slepyshev 102 (Craig MacTavish)
  6. G Laurent Brossoit 45 (Craig MacTavish)

When we talk about hockey orphans, these are them. Laurent Brossoit was acquired by MacT, who would have placed a certain value on him. If the Oilers keep MacT as GM, Brossoit is probably still here. Now, there are players in the system now the new guy won’t value highly. Chances are they find their way after leaving Edmonton. I think Joe Gambardella is a candidate.

Both men have value, but are the Oilers interested in signing them? Peter Chiarelli brought them to the organization. He’s gone. Orphans. I think Hawkey might be signed.

PENALTY KILL

I value SA/60 as a PK stat. The best team SA/60 belonged to New Jersey his past season (41.53), Edmonton came in No. 19 at 53.19. In terms of GA/60, Tampa Bay is league best at 5.19, while Edmonton was No. 30 (9.21). Some of that is goaltending but this is an area that needs help.

My hope is the Oilers find a way to use the top offensive talents less and to find depth players to do the work. Here are the top 5 PK Dmen by SA/60 (50 or more minutes) for Edmonton:

  1. Matt Benning 43.96 (87:21)
  2. Adam Larsson 51.53 (165:19)
  3. Oscar Klefbom 55.12 (109:57)
  4. Darnell Nurse 56.91 (158:07)
  5. Kris Russell 60.21 (140:30)

The Lightning have three defensemen (Braydon Coburn, Erik Cernak and Victor Hedman) are under 47.00. Now the forwards:

  1. Connor McDavid 42.68 (49:12)
  2. Leon Draisaitl 43.54 (95:04)
  3. Zack Kassian 50.81 (99:10)
  4. Jujhar Khaira 52.04 (69:10)
  5. Kyle Brodziak 53.49 (117:46)

Ryan Callahan is 38.48, Yanni Gourde is 48.05, Alex Killorn 50.01. So, my question (and I don’t have a real answer): How many PK’s do the Oilers need to add this summer? Andrej Sekera healthy is one, but there’s a lot more needed. Nuge (58.68) should be the best at this discipline.

ANDREW MANGIAPANE

Once a year, someone emails me (or hammers away on twitter) about my draft rankings. This year, people are pointing out that scouts don’t like Arthur Kaliyev (I have him No. 3 overall).

My list is basically math run through NHLE and then adding up things like foot speed or getting zoomed by an impact linemate. I’m not a scout but have been staring at these numbers for years.

I’m not a braggy type, my upbringing teaches me that it’s attention seeking. That said, and since this year seems to be bringing out more than the usual number of naysayers, I’d like to point out that I ranked Andrew Mangiapane No. 52. The year before he was drafted.

YOU CAN CALL ME JAY

  1. What is the best thing you can say about Woodcroft? There are two. He’s playing the kids, and finding a way for almost all of them to have success. This is beyond a breath of fresh air. Benson has 65 points as a rookie at 20. Michael Henrich was drafted No. 13 in 1998, but when he turned pro went 5-10-15 in 73 games. Music!
  2. Which prospect (previously in Bakersfield) improved most in Woodcroft’s first season? I’ll pick Caleb Jones. His second AHL season doesn’t resemble the first one in any way. It’s important to credit the player, but Woodcroft’s Condors spiked almost universally. Also want to mention Joe Gambardella here. What an offensive improvement.
  3. Which prospect disappointed most in Woodcroft’s first season? Kailer Yamamoto. Injury was certainly part of it, but based on usage I think there may have been a message sent to the youngster. That’s reading the boxscore as tea leaves, but I do think there was a disconnect on usage and Woodcroft brilliantly handled everyone else. I’d say young Yamamoto had a disappointing first pro season.
  4. Anything weird about his roster? Very little strange this time. Forced to pick something, I would say AHL-only contracts like Logan Day and Evan Polei playing such major roles is unusual historically. That said, it makes sense based on performance.
  5. How many legit NHL prospects played in Bakersfield 2015-16? I will list Leon Draisaitl, Darnell Nurse, Griffin Reinhart, Anton Slepyshev, Laurent Brossoit, Jordan Oesterle, David Musil, Jujhar Khaira, Dillon Simpson, Kyle Platzer and Bogdan Yakimov. That is 11.
  6. How many of those will make it? That number is always less than hoped for, bet the under. So far, the answer is two.
  7. How many legit NHL prospects played in Bakersfield this year? I will list Tyler Benson, Cooper Marody, Joe Gambardella, Caleb Jones, Logan Day, Ethan Bear, Cam Hebig, William Lagesson, Kailer Yamamoto, Shane Starrett, Dylan Wells, Stuart Skinner, Josh Currie, Patrick Russell, Tyler Vesel. That’s 15.
  8. Who was the last Oilers AHL coach to have the same impact? Todd Nelson was a fine coach at this level. I’ll pick him. Before that? Claude Julien.
  9. Is there anything about the Condors’ deployment that is good or bad? I have been doing this post-season look at the Oilers AHL coach for years, this is the first time I don’t have to say “the coach did not play the 20-year old kids enough.” That’s huge. An absolute monster in player development.
  10. Does he have a preference in terms of player? Seems to like the aggressive forecheckers and defensemen who stand up at the blue line. His usage of players is a stark contrast from last year.
  11. Anything irritate you? If the Oilers don’t sign Logan Day to an NHL deal, I will be irritated.
  12. Are you generally satisfied with the progress of Edmonton’s prospects a year ago? Yes. God yes.

I’m not sure this makes sense as anything but theatre, but consider me all-in on the idea anyway. Oh my God.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260. Friday edition of the show, scheduled to appear:

  • Steve Lansky, BigMouthSports. Leafs and Flames on a collision course.
  • Matt Iwanyk, TSN1260. Why can’t he get any work done during the Masters?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. 90 minutes!

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161 Responses to "(You’re) Running Wild"

  1. russ99 says:

    I don’t understand how shots against on the PK has a ton of value.

    We’re a man down, and the opposition is getting shots, so what’s the variance on enough shots allowed vs. too many shots allowed? Has to be pretty minimal, so how can you extrapolate what a good number is for an individual player?

    GA is as much a team metric, as a goalie metric. We can’t separate what the defenders do on the PK to what the goalie does on the PK.

    The idea that goalie is responsible for goals against and the defenders (forwards and defensemen) are responsible for shots against is a pretty narrow view of team defense.

    I really hope that when the tracker data is mined and hopefully eventually released to the public, actual value can be found to prove the worth of players when our team doesn’t have the puck without the use of shot metrics.

  2. Nit64 says:

    If he still wants to coach in the NHL good timing. Lots of openings.

  3. wheatnoil says:

    russ99:
    I don’t understand how shots against on the PK has a ton of value.

    We’re a man down, and the opposition is getting shots, so what’s the variance on enough shots allowed vs. too many shots allowed? Has to be pretty minimal, so how can you extrapolate what a good number is for an individual player?

    GA is as much a team metric, as a goalie metric. We can’t separate what the defenders do on the PK to what the goalie does on the PK.

    The idea that goalie is responsible for goals against and the defenders (forwards and defensemen) are responsible for shots is a pretty narrow view of defense.

    I really hope that when the tracker data is mined and hopefully eventually released to the public, actual value can be found to prove the worth of players when our team doesn’t have the puck without the use of shot metrics.

    I don’t think LT is necessarily separating it as shots means D and goals means G. Shots on goal have value as the more you clear the puck, the more you keep the puck to the outside, the more blocked shots, the fewer shots on goal.

    Tracking data is important and one area that can be mined is Corey Sznajder’s data. One could look at the passes that lead to shots on goal. The missing pieces that I feel would add the most value to LT’s choice of SA/60 above are shot locations (available via Micah McCurdy and separatable by individual player on ice for PK) and cross-ice passes (available via Sznajder though only for the games he’s tracked).

    If no one else does, I’ll dig in to this some day when I have time. (My eternal refrain.)

  4. Lowetide says:

    russ99:
    I don’t understand how shots against on the PK has a ton of value.

    We’re a man down, and the opposition is getting shots, so what’s the variance on enough shots allowed vs. too many shots allowed? Has to be pretty minimal, so how can you extrapolate what a good number is for an individual player?

    GA is as much a team metric, as a goalie metric. We can’t separate what the defenders do on the PK to what the goalie does on the PK.

    The idea that goalie is responsible for goals against and the defenders (forwards and defensemen) are responsible for shots against is a pretty narrow view of team defense.

    I really hope that when the tracker data is mined and hopefully eventually released to the public, actual value can be found to prove the worth of players when our team doesn’t have the puck without the use of shot metrics.

    I always look for the widest possible sample, in this case I use SA/60 because for me Corsi on the PK is too wide. I’m absolutely with you on needing better metrics but for me GA/60 on the PK is too fine.

  5. who says:

    I read your Athletic piece on Hextall LT.
    I have no idea if he is being considered but he would be a front runner for me. For 3 reasons, and they are all on his resume.
    1. Showed the ability to get rid of bad contracts in Philly. This has to be job 1 for any new Oilers GM.
    2. Good drafting record. Apparently Philly has one of the deepest prospect pools in the NHL.
    3. Was fired for being too patient. If only the Oilers had hired this guy in 2015. Think how much better this team would be. And yes, I know he wasn’t available in 2015.

  6. ArmchairGM says:

    Another BUY LOW candidate for puck-moving 2RD who is mis-cast and under-appreciated (to put it mildly):

    Nikita Zaitsev. Ok, don’t laugh, I’m serious. This guy played 39% against elites this year with 41.01 OZS% in those minutes, yet he produced a 48.3 CF%, 48.4 DFF% and 59.3 GF%.

    Overall this year he played the 2nd most minutes on the team (D category), with 49.9 CF%, 49.4 DFF% and 50.0 GF% despite 41.80 OZS% – while every other defender got 48+ OZS.

    In 2016-17 (his first year in the league), Zaitsev played 43.5% against elites – the most on the team in both percentage and total minutes. Rielly was the only one close but Zaitsev got more defensive zone starts (46.81%). He was 50.9 CF%, 49.8 DFF% and 43.3 GF% in those minutes. Welcome to the NHL, kid.

    In 2017-18 his TOI against elites was reduced to 36% (3rd on team) and his OZS% raised to 47.5% and he absolutely killed it, getting a 74.2 GF%. His Corsi and Fenwick were slightly under 50 though, so maybe he was just running hot.

    This is a guy who, at least in the eyes of most Leafs fans, would be a cap dump, available along with a pick for Future Considerations. Or maybe they’d take Russell back? They DO need players who can defend on the right side after all.

    Downside: his scoring has decreased every year, and he has 5 more years x $4.5M.

    Discuss.

  7. Brantford Boy says:

    “It’s easy to forget how things used to be, and it’s also easy to be overwhelmed by the voices who say everything’s wrong when in truth sunshine finds its way into the very room you’re sitting in.”

    Thanks for this LT, I needed it! Cheers!

    It’s like fog on a sunny day, it will dissipate…

    I would imagine Jay Woodcroft has cemented his position regardless of the new GM… great work, but not NHL ready yet…

  8. Coiler says:

    Krueger coming back to Edmonton to be the POHO would be interesting to say the least. I believe he certainly has the acumen and balls to do the job but perhaps I’m waxing nostalgia for what could have been had he stayed. Part of me would like it if only for the fact that MacTavish and Howson would likely be looking over their shoulders the moment he walked into the office. Hope their Skype skills are still what they used to be if it does turn out that way.

    It’s nice to see the AHL club trending in the right direction and credit should be given to Woodcroft. If that trend continues then that should mean good things for the parent club. Imagine that eh, drafting and developing players for a few years for eventual promotion to the big club. Who’d have thought.

    Anyone else find it funny that nothing has been said about McDavid’s injury yet aside from the fact that it’s not a break and they’re seeking multiple opinions. It doesn’t instill a lot of confidence from where I sit and I’m surprised more people aren’t taking them to task over this. Spidey senses are tingling..

  9. DBO says:

    Warming to the idea of Guerin as GM and woodcroft as coach. Would be a departure, but based on playing style fitting team, Woodcroft makes sense. Albeit it would be a stretch, but a long time assistant and now head coach in the AHL. If we don’t promote him we probably lose him to McClellan when he takes the LA job.

    And VanDiest article on Guerin makes sense, as much as any of the other choices who haven’t GM’d before. Pittsburgh is a heck of an organization. And the comparison to Yzerman makes a ton of sense. Grew up in his assistant role in a Detroit org that was all class and in playoffs every year. Pittsburgh is the same, except more Cup wins recently so is a great learning team.

  10. Cassandra says:

    From the previous thread.

    Georgexs: Player, Age, Career PPG

    Brett Connolly, 26, 0.36
    Jonas Donskoi, 26, 0.43
    Drake Berahowsky, 47, 0.27
    Oliver Bjorkstrand, 24, 0.49
    Ondrej Kase, 23, 0.49
    Richard Panik, 28, 0.54

    Nikolay Goldobin, 23, 0.37
    Sonny Milano, 22, 0.34

    I’m really pulling for Drake. It’d be a great story. But I also have my doubts.

    That’s the thing that most of these guys will have going against them if we’re expecting top-6 output next season. Doubt. Their own will be tough enough to deal with. How about that of their new coaches and teammates and let’s not forget, our “we know when and how to run you out of town” local media and fans?

    One thing that might have helped Lindholm in CGY was having an HC who appears to have really believed in him. That seems to make a difference to these young men.

    The point about patience is well taken. However pts per game is the wrong metric. It measures opportunity not production. So many “middle six” players don’t do as well on a per season or a per game level from year to year, or from team to team, is that the opportunity varies so much. This is why pts/game or pts/season is worse than useless. It conceals the valuable information contained in pts/60 at 5v5.

    Now there are other factors, mostly teammates, but this is the single best way to separate the wheat from the chaff.

    Using pts/season or pts/game is not an argument, it is an excuse.

  11. elgruntus says:

    Anyone else find it funny that nothing has been said about McDavid’s injury yet aside from the fact that it’s not a break and they’re seeking multiple opinions. It doesn’t instill a lot of confidence from where I sit and I’m surprised more people aren’t taking them to task over this. Spidey senses are tingling..

    Sheldon Souray says “hi”

  12. Cassandra says:

    Mangiapane is also a good example of the maxim that there is no such thing as a AHL/NHL tweener. If you can score at even strength in the AHL you can score in the NHL. The information is just as valuable and there should be no implicit bias toward “proven” NHL scorers.

    The reason people doubt this is because the information of who can score in the AHL is hidden behind pts/season and pts/game measures which measure opportunity more than production (see above).

  13. Coiler says:

    elgruntus: Sheldon Souray says “hi”

    That’s ominous eh?

  14. ArmchairGM says:

    Nit64:
    If he still wants to coach in the NHL good timing. Lots of openings.

    I don’t believe he does. He’d make an excellent POHO though – and that’s a position of interest to him.

  15. Jaxon says:

    Pat Verbeek has really been surrounded by great coaches and GMs and responsible players throughout his playing/staff career. Here are some interesting names he either played with or was on staff with:

    Scotty Bowman, Ken Hitchcock, Joel Quenniville, Mike Babcock, Brad McCrimmon, Bob Gainey, Kirk Muller, Guy Carbonneau, Brendan Morrow, Doug Jarvis, Dave Lewis, John McLean, Steve Yzerman, Sergei Fedorov, Steve Thomas, John Cooper, Guy Boucher, Lou Lamiorello, Jiri Lehtinen, Mike Keane, Ken Holland, Jim Nill, Nick Lidstrom, Chris Pronger, Derian Hatcher, Chris Chelios, Brian Leetch, Mark Messier, Steve Larmer, Kevin Lowe, Brendan Shanahan, Mike Modano, Joe Niewwndyk…

    Devils, Whalers, Rangers, Red Wings, Stars as a player and Red Wings and Lightning as staff. Pretty impressive career so far. I like him as GM. If the main job is acquiring players then the man with the title of Director of Player Personnel and Assistant GM since 2012, and Dir. of Professional Scouting for 2 years prior to that in Tampa and 4 years as a Red Wing scout going back to the summer of 2006 looks pretty damn good. Hedman and Stamkos were the only 2 current players on the roster when he started with Tampa.

    A quick Look at how Tampa Bay acquired their current roster:
    Player – Draft Position
    Stamkos – 1
    Hedman – 2
    —————–
    Erne – 33
    Cernak – 43
    Kucherov – 58!!!!!
    Cirelli – 72!
    Killorn – 77!
    Point – 79!!!
    Paquette – 101
    Joseph – 120
    Palat – 207!!
    Gourde – undrafted!!
    Johnson – undrafted!!

    Good finds they mistakenly let go:
    Connolly – 6 (in their defence it took him way too long to arrive)
    Gudas – 66
    Marchessault – undrafted!!

    They turned Drouin – 3, into Sergachaev – 9

    I have no idea how much involvement Verbeek had on any of these transactions but as Director of Player Personnel and Assistant GM for all those years you’d have to think it would be substantial. He’d at least have a seat at the table and have a voice in these decisions and witness people often making the right decision on picks, trades and signings. They’ve built one of the, if not the, best team in the cap era starting with just two core high draft picks.

  16. ArmchairGM says:

    Brantford Boy: I would imagine Jay Woodcroft has cemented his position regardless of the new GM… great work, but not NHL ready yet…

    MOAR BUS RIDES

  17. Cassandra says:

    Given the above the Oilers should sign Daniel Carr. He’s a pending UFA stuck in the minors. You can get him for league minimum.

    Two years ago he was 1.73 pts/60 with the Canadians
    This year he scored 71 pts in 52 games in the AHL.

    He’s a better player than half the Oiler forwards. And you can get him for free. There is no down side to it and plenty of upside.

  18. jtblack says:

    who:
    I read your Athletic piece on Hextall LT.
    I have no idea if he is being considered but he would be a front runner for me. For 3 reasons, and they are all on his resume.
    1. Showed the ability to get rid of bad contracts in Philly. This has to be job 1 for any newOilers GM.
    2. Good draftingrecord. Apparently Philly has one of the deepest prospect pools in the NHL.
    3. Was fired for being too patient. If only the Oilers had hired this guy in 2015. Think how much better this team would be. And yes,I know he wasn’t available in 2015.

    Hextall also dealt Brayden Schenn for Jori Lehtera & a late 1st rounder …. poor trade. I don’t expect any GM to be perfect, but Hextall’s track record was not all rose’s ..

  19. Cassandra says:

    Benson and Marody have proven (to me) they can play in the NHL. I would start them in them in the AHL anyway and fill their spots with guys that aren’t waiver exempt. That way you get more good players, not less, and your organization has much better depth.

  20. slopitch says:

    Kruger poho, guerin gm, keep one of gretzky or mact (for culture lol!). Purge the pro scouts and build a worldclass analytics dept. lets go!

    Armchair, i wondered the same about Zaitsev

  21. LMHF#1 says:

    Ralph Krueger firing Craig MacTavish would be one of the most beautiful things I’ve seen happen for this organization.

    Initially I was going to post about it being on Skype…but I’m sure he’d shake his hand, look him in the eye, and handle it like a professional.

  22. who says:

    jtblack: Hextall also dealt Brayden Schenn for Jori Lehtera & a late1st rounder ….poor trade.I don’t expect any GM to be perfect, but Hextall’s track record was not all rose’s ..

    I’d have to re read the article but I thought Lowetide said he got 2 first rounders for Schenn.

  23. Nit64 says:

    ArmchairGM: I don’t believe he does. He’d make an excellent POHO though – and that’s a position of interest to him.

    Someone better Skype Craig so he can get on it.

  24. Nit64 says:

    slopitch: Kruger poho, guerin gm, keep one of gretzky or mact (for culture lol!).

    As long as Ralph gets to pick which one to not keep 😉

  25. JJS says:

    Anyone else find it funny that nothing has been said about McDavid’s injury yet aside from the fact that it’s not a break and they’re seeking multiple opinions. It doesn’t instill a lot of confidence from where I sit and I’m surprised more people aren’t taking them to task over this. Spidey senses are tingling..

    I would rather them get it right and announce it when the facts are in. Injuries, particularly soft tissue, are not always obvious. Even certain fractures can be difficult to see at times.

    The season is over – there is absolutely no time pressure to make a statement

  26. jtblack says:

    who: I’d have to re read the article but I thought Lowetide said he got 2 first rounders for Schenn.

    he may well have. Got Morgan Frost and a conditional. Conditional may have been another 1st .. #14 Joel Farabee ….

    So I digress. That’s a much better trade on the whole.

  27. texmex says:

    Rishaug saying he doesn’t believe Kruger would be a fit for the Oilers at this moment.

    Yeah, hiring a renowned great hockey person to kickoff probably the most important offseason in Oilers history would be bad timing for sure.

  28. godot10 says:

    ArmchairGM: I don’t believe he does. He’d make an excellent POHO though – and that’s a position of interest to him.

    POHO in Ottawa with Dorian as GM would be a good fit for Ralph. Ralph could manage the owner for Bettman.

  29. PinkSocks says:

    who: I’d have to re read the article but I thought Lowetide said he got 2 first rounders for Schenn.

    Yes he did, and those two first rounders turned into Farabee and Frost. Huge for the Flyers organization to turn Schenn into those two players.

  30. PinkSocks says:

    jtblack: he may well have.Got Morgan Frost and a conditional. Conditional may have been another 1st ..#14 Joel Farabee ….

    So I digress. That’s a much better trade on the whole.

    Correct; it was two first rounders, one of them being conditional.

    From Capfriendly:

    *Conditions: If the 2018 draft pick becomes a top 10 pick, Blues have the option to move the pick to 2019. If the pick is moved to 2019, the Flyers will also receive a 2020 3rd round pick.

    Result: Blues pick is not top 10. Flyers will receive St. Louis’ 2018 1st round pick

  31. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    who,

    I’ve been advocating for Hextall since before ChiaPete was let go. His biggest failure was not finding a starting goalie until Hart was ready (or possibly that he didn’t have Hart playing this year).

    In addition to the points you’ve outlined, I’ve mentioned that he also didn’t hand out NMC’s like Halloween candy. No rich retirement contracts to aging vets. Cap space! And have a look at his trading record… that man is shrewd. Another important factor, though one much less easy to quantify, is how he’d be likely to stand up to interference/meddling from the BotB. He didn’t take crap when he was playing, and it doesn’t seem to have mellowed much over the years.

  32. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    jtblack,

    Remember back when we could have had Brayden Schenn for Eberle? Good times. Something tells me there’s a backstory there we aren’t privy to. As you’ve said, every GM misses sometimes, but going over his trade list on CapFriendly, he’s won more than he lost. Gudas was an astute get.

  33. slopitch says:

    I like the Hextall suggestion. Hes more of a lock the doors and get stuff done type of guy so the media and folks who like transparency would hate him. I only want results.

  34. leadfarmer says:

    Cassandra:
    Mangiapane is also a good example of the maxim that there is no such thing as a AHL/NHL tweener.If you can score at even strength in the AHL you can score in the NHL.The information is just as valuable and there should be no implicit bias toward “proven” NHL scorers.

    The reason people doubt this is because the information of who can score in the AHL is hidden behind pts/season and pts/game measures which measure opportunity more than production (see above).

    Theres been plenty of high end AHL scorers that cant piss a drop in the AHL that says that is not correct. Usually skating is the culprit. Alex Giroux had 60 goal and 100 point AHL seasons yet never played 50 NHL games

  35. Pescador says:

    Cassandra:
    Given the above the Oilers should sign Daniel Carr.He’s a pending UFA stuck in the minors.You can get him for league minimum.

    Two years ago he was 1.73 pts/60 with the Canadians
    This year he scored 71 pts in 52 games in the AHL.

    He’s a better player than half the Oiler forwards.And you can get him for free.There is no down side to it and plenty of upside.

    It’s both hilarious and sad that one (or several) posters on this blog could have built a better roster than Peter Chiarelli did in 4 years

  36. Cassandra says:

    texmex:
    Rishaug saying he doesn’t believe Kruger would be a fit for the Oilers at this moment.

    Yeah, hiring a renowned great hockey person to kickoff probably the most important offseason in Oilers history would be bad timing for sure.

    Kruger is not a renowned great hockey person. He was a mediocre coach and renowned public speaker.

    Hiring Kruger is absurd, absurd enough for the Oilers to actually do, but a genuinely terrible idea.

  37. Pescador says:

    texmex:
    Rishaug saying he doesn’t believe Kruger would be a fit for the Oilers at this moment.

    Yeah, hiring a renowned great hockey person to kickoff probably the most important offseason in Oilers history would be bad timing for sure.

    Good fit for which position?
    I think that the best option for GM is a candidate that has been involved in NHL dealings.
    As opposed to someone who has been working in a different league let alone a different sport.
    POHO?
    Could come from anywhere IMO

  38. texmex says:

    Pescador: Good fit for which position?

    POHO

  39. texmex says:

    Cassandra,

    Remember this when Gillis is hired as POHO.

  40. Cassandra says:

    leadfarmer: Theres been plenty of high end AHL scorers that cant piss a drop in the AHL that says that is not correct.Usually skating is the culprit.Alex Giroux had 60 goal and 100 point AHL seasons yet never played 50 NHL games

    First, I can’t find them right now but I believe Giroux’ points were inflated by power play opportunities which I specifically said should be discounted.

    Second, it’s a small sample of games but from 08-09 to 10-11 Alex Giroux scored at a 1.47 pts/60 rate in the NHL. That is pissing more than a few drops. That would be 5th best on the Oilers this season, despite those being lower scoring years.

    Your counter example proves my point.

    If you can score in the AHL you can score in the NHL. There is no such thing as an AHL-only scorer.

  41. Cassandra says:

    texmex,

    Gillis would be an excellent choice.

  42. texmex says:

    Cassandra,

    We will have to agree to disagree.

  43. YKOil says:

    Would be thrilled to have Krueger as POHO. His ‘organization-level’ work is impressive. Not sure if he is best choice for GM.

    Would be quite happy with Hextall as GM.

    Edit to add: Krueger will probably go to the Rangers in some capacity

  44. Jethro Tull says:

    who:
    I read your Athletic piece on Hextall LT.
    I have no idea if he is being considered but he would be a front runner for me. For 3 reasons, and they are all on his resume.
    1. Showed the ability to get rid of bad contracts in Philly. This has to be job 1 for any newOilers GM.
    2. Good draftingrecord. Apparently Philly has one of the deepest prospect pools in the NHL.
    3. Was fired for being too patient. If only the Oilers had hired this guy in 2015. Think how much better this team would be. And yes,I know he wasn’t available in 2015.

    Hextall was fired from Philly because he supposedly was a lone gun. The verbal from the Oilers is that Pistol Pete was the same. If we hire Hextall, it would pre-suppose Pete didn’t act alone……

    This is not an easy hire for the Oilers and they did this to themselves. It’s exactly the reason you don’t let ex-GMs hang around in whatever capacity.

  45. ArmchairGM says:

    YKOil: Kreuger will probably go to the Rangers in some capacity

    Ah yes, Sather’s still-warm chair. Quite possible.

  46. texmex says:

    ArmchairGM,

    I have it on good authority that hiring Kruger is absurd and a genuinely terrible idea. ;p

  47. godot10 says:

    Cassandra: Kruger is not a renowned great hockey person.He was a mediocre coach and renowned public speaker.

    Hiring Kruger is absurd, absurd enough for the Oilers to actually do, but a genuinely terrible idea.

    He has run a Premier League team for the last five years, rebuilding a franchise, and made his owner hundreds of millions of dollars selling half of it to a Chinese billionaire.

  48. Jethro Tull says:

    Cassandra: Kruger is not a renowned great hockey person.He was a mediocre coach and renowned public speaker.

    Hiring Kruger is absurd, absurd enough for the Oilers to actually do, but a genuinely terrible idea.

    Whilst Gillis is a Machiavellian level genius GM, guiding the Canucks to multiple cups whilst setting up a proven prospect pipeline to replace the Sedins. Not once did he let personal feelings affect his decision making process.

  49. pts2pndr says:

    Brantford Boy:
    “It’s easy to forget how things used to be, and it’s also easy to be overwhelmed by the voices who say everything’s wrong when in truth sunshine finds its way into the very room you’re sitting in.”

    Thanks for this LT, I needed it! Cheers!

    It’s like fog on a sunny day, it will dissipate…

    I would imagine Jay Woodcroft has cemented his position regardless of the new GM… great work, but not NHL ready yet…

    He probably is nhl ready but for the organization to have him work with the new grads out of junior for a year instilling the sytems and getting to know them is a huge bonus.

  50. jtblack says:

    Watching the Leafs last night was a SLIGHT reminder of where the Oilers should be ….

    LEAFS and EDM had very similiar situations …

    Toronto kept all their High End Talent and patched together the rest of their lineup (Defense) …

    The leafs used a 1st and a 2nd to acquire Andersen, but that was the only risk of future assets ..

    Once it was clear they were a contender, they burned a late 1st for the Muzzin deal …

    Win, Lose or Draw Toronto has been in the playoffs 3 straight years and have a Good Team that “SHOULD” contend for the foreseeable future .

    Edmonton. Well they pissed away a bunch of picks and half their talent …. #ThisIsUs

  51. pts2pndr says:

    Cassandra: Kruger is not a renowned great hockey person.He was a mediocre coach and renowned public speaker.

    Hiring Kruger is absurd, absurd enough for the Oilers to actually do, but a genuinely terrible idea.

    If he was hired I would hope it would be for POHO and as such would be completely qualified. He checks all the bases for building a professional sports organization. He just did it in soccer. His knowledge of hockey both at the international level and nhl level would be an asset. His people skills are first class. He has the right amount of knowledge on hockey without being part of the loser group of recycled managers or past presidents of hockey operations.

  52. defmn says:

    Cassandra: Kruger is not a renowned great hockey person.He was a mediocre coach and renowned public speaker.

    Hiring Kruger is absurd, absurd enough for the Oilers to actually do, but a genuinely terrible idea.

    Thank you. I was beginning to wonder if I was the only one.

  53. jonrmcleod says:

    During the press conference the other day with Bob Nicholson, Keith Gretzky was asked, “Who’s going to make that call [i.e., the call to make various moves at the draft]?

    KG’s answer: “Well, it’ll be the GM at the end of the day–whoever that is. And, you know, I know he’ll go TO US OR WHOEVER IT IS to lean on different ideas of the prospects and, you know, what we think can help our hockey club.”

    Seems like KG might have inadvertently revealed that he’s willing to stay on if a new GM is hired then tried to cover that up by adding “or whoever it is.”

    Or maybe I’m reading too much into that.

  54. jtblack says:

    in other important news.

    It is ” NATIONAL GRILL CHEESE DAY “

  55. Georgexs says:

    Cassandra:
    From the previous thread.

    The point about patience is well taken.However pts per game is the wrong metric.It measures opportunity not production.So many “middle six” players don’t do as well on a per season or a per game level from year to year, or from team to team, is that the opportunity varies so much.This is why pts/game or pts/season is worse than useless.It conceals the valuable information contained in pts/60 at 5v5.

    Now there are other factors, mostly teammates, but this is the single best way to separate the wheat from the chaff.

    Using pts/season or pts/game is not an argument, it is an excuse.

    Your rhetorical skills are without peer on this site.

    The data unfortunately shows that PPG is a better predictor of future 5v5 P/60 than 5v5 P/60 itself.

    You’ll get more wheat and less chaff if you use PPG than if you use 5v5 P/60,

    If you think about it a little, you’ll see why this makes intuitive sense, i.e., why PPG tells you more about a forward than 5v5 Pts/60.

  56. leadfarmer says:

    Cassandra: First, I can’t find them right now but I believe Giroux’ points were inflated by power play opportunities which I specifically said should be discounted.

    Second, it’s a small sample of games but from 08-09 to 10-11 Alex Giroux scored at a 1.47 pts/60 rate in the NHL.That is pissing more than a few drops.That would be 5th best on the Oilers this season, despite those being lower scoring years.

    Your counter example proves my point.

    If you can score in the AHL you can score in the NHL.There is no such thing as an AHL-only scorer.

    It actually doesnt prove your point because this great scorer moved through multiple orgs that had no room for him.
    Anton Lander is another
    There is absolutely a group of players that are far too good for the AHL but cannot make it in the NHL. Usually they have a fatal flaw such as speed.

  57. doritogrande says:

    Remember back when we could have had Brayden Schenn for Eberle? Good times. Something tells me there’s a backstory there we aren’t privy to. As you’ve said, every GM misses sometimes, but going over his trade list on CapFriendly, he’s won more than he lost. Gudas was an astute get.

    Remember back when we could have had Taylor Hall and Tyler Seguin, and all it would have cost us was Eberle?

    Don’t go tripping down memory lane, it’s just painful.

  58. Side says:

    pts2pndr: If he was hired I would hope it would be for POHO and as such would be completely qualified. He checks all the bases for building a professional sports organization. He just did it in soccer. His knowledge of hockey both at the international level and nhl level would be an asset. His people skills are first class. He has the right amount of knowledge on hockey without being part of the loser group of recycled managers or past presidents of hockey operations.

    If Ralph can do it in premiere league soccer, he certainly can do it in the NHL (an organization in the sport he knows just as well, if not more, than soccer).

    Cassandra suggesting Ralph would be a ‘terrible choice’ is, well, peak Cassandra, I guess.

  59. Cassandra says:

    Georgexs: Your rhetorical skills are without peer on this site.

    The data unfortunately shows that PPG is a better predictor of future 5v5 P/60 than 5v5 P/60 itself.

    You’ll get more wheat and less chaff if you use PPG than if you use 5v5 P/60,

    If you think about it a little, you’ll see why this makes intuitive sense, i.e., why PPG tells you more about a forward than 5v5 Pts/60.

    If opportunity is the single biggest predictor of points (sounds reasonable to me) and NHL coaches have an implicit bias toward “proven” players (i.e. those that have been given opportunity in the past) then you would observe this correlation.

    It is as if baseball made assessments on value without counting at-bats (using games instead of playing time), or if baseball used RBI as a measure of productivity (power play time). It is no less absurd to do the same thing in hockey.

  60. Georgexs says:

    Cassandra:
    Mangiapane is also a good example of the maxim that there is no such thing as a AHL/NHL tweener.If you can score at even strength in the AHL you can score in the NHL.The information is just as valuable and there should be no implicit bias toward “proven” NHL scorers.

    The reason people doubt this is because the information of who can score in the AHL is hidden behind pts/season and pts/game measures which measure opportunity more than production (see above).

    Your error rate here is unusually high. I think you’re 0 for 4 on this one.

    But I’ve seen you do things like this to get a rise out of the audience.

    So I’ll go back to my seat.

  61. John Chambers says:

    ArmchairGM,

    After reading about Marner’s next contract and Toronto’s challenging cap situation, I looked up their roster on NHLnumbers and eyed Zaitsev’s contract.

    Challenge for Toronto is that he’s their only actualy Right-handed defenseman. Perhaps if they acquired a #1RD (which they don’t have the $ for) they might deal Zaitsev for a lesser RHD like Benning, but for Toronto he’d be a difficult guy to replace.

  62. Cassandra says:

    leadfarmer: It actually doesnt prove your point because this great scorer moved through multiple orgs that had no room for him.
    Anton Lander is another
    There is absolutely a group of players that are far too good for the AHL but cannot make it in the NHL.Usually they have a fatal flaw such as speed.

    I think you are wrong. In any case, this is classic question begging. That organizations moved on from a player is not evidence they were right to move on from them. Especially, since what we are trying to identify is players that other teams have made mistakes on.

    There are two things that we know with absolute certainty.

    1) There are more players that are good enough to play in the NHL than actually play in the NHL.
    2) There are players in the NHL who should not be in the NHL.

    The NHL does not identify or distribute talent efficiently. We know this. The best players in the AHL are significantly better than the worst players in the NHL. We know this.

  63. Cassandra says:

    John Chambers:
    ArmchairGM,

    After reading about Marner’s next contract and Toronto’s challenging cap situation, I looked up their roster on NHLnumbers and eyed Zaitsev’s contract.

    Challenge for Toronto is that he’s their only actualy Right-handed defenseman. Perhaps if they acquired a #1RD (which they don’t have the $ for) they might deal Zaitsev for a lesser RHD like Benning, but for Toronto he’d be a difficult guy to replace.

    Toronto is going to trade Zaitsev in the offseason if they can. The question is whether they find any takers. I think they will, but it will be a significant mistake. That contract has significant negative value.

  64. Side says:

    Cassandra: I think you are wrong.In any case, this is classic question begging.That organizations moved on from a player is not evidence they were right to move on from them.Especially, since what we are trying to identify is players that other teams have made mistakes on.

    There are two things that we know with absolute certainty.

    1) There are more players that are good enough to play in the NHL than actually play in the NHL.
    2) There are players in the NHL who should not be in the NHL.

    The NHL does not identify or distribute talent efficiently.We know this.The best players in the AHL are significantly better than the worst players in the NHL.We know this.

    So your answer is to hand wave and say that it was the organizations who failed the players that were good in the AHL but were not able to find success in the NHL?

    Both of your points (1) and 2)) are true, but a 3rd point can also be true and certain. That some players are not able to play in the NHL even if they do possess the tools. Players are people, people are not robots.

  65. Lowetide says:

    Cassandra:
    Benson and Marody have proven (to me) they can play in the NHL.I would start them in them in the AHL anyway and fill their spots with guys that aren’t waiver exempt.That way you get more good players, not less, and your organization has much better depth.

    That would be a very wise thing to do.

  66. Cassandra says:

    Lowetide: That would be a very wise thing to do.

    So 1 for 5 then. Or by Georges reckoning: 1

  67. leadfarmer says:

    Cassandra,

    Lets take 2012-13 AHL season
    https://www.quanthockey.com/ahl/en/seasons/2012-13-ahl-players-stats.html

    Please list all the players over 23 that had a career.
    You are very Wrong, but you will continue to argue.
    You can put up mad points in the AHL, but if you are doing at 25 it really doesnt matter. You are so unlikely to make it to the NHL (unless Steve Y is your GM)

  68. Fiveinatrailer says:

    Just saw an ad on kijiji for a corporate real estate rental. Agent is JD-D
    Can’t be a coincidence.
    (Edit). Same guy. Good for him.

  69. Bulging Twine says:
  70. OriginalPouzar says:

    Cassandra:
    Given the above the Oilers should sign Daniel Carr.He’s a pending UFA stuck in the minors.You can get him for league minimum.

    Two years ago he was 1.73 pts/60 with the Canadians
    This year he scored 71 pts in 52 games in the AHL.

    He’s a better player than half the Oiler forwards.And you can get him for free.There is no down side to it and plenty of upside.

    Yup, Carr and Pirri are my main two forward targets – that’s the snack bracket this team should be playing in this year in free agency – yup, similar to last year but for just one more year.

    Of course, a 2 year deal for Stralman is the higher snack bracket that makes sense for the back-end.

    Nothing with term. 2 years max for any sort of material AAV.

  71. JimmyV1965 says:

    Georgexs: Your rhetorical skills are without peer on this site.

    The data unfortunately shows that PPG is a better predictor of future 5v5 P/60 than 5v5 P/60 itself.

    You’ll get more wheat and less chaff if you use PPG than if you use 5v5 P/60,

    If you think about it a little, you’ll see why this makes intuitive sense, i.e., why PPG tells you more about a forward than 5v5 Pts/60.

    Could it be that 5v5 Pts/60 can be skewed by small sample sizes. That players with low minutes benefit from even 1 or 2 pts. And conversely for players logging many minutes.

  72. Cassandra says:

    leadfarmer:
    Cassandra,

    Lets take 2012-13 AHL season
    https://www.quanthockey.com/ahl/en/seasons/2012-13-ahl-players-stats.html

    Please list all the players over 23 that had a career.
    You are very Wrong, but you will continue to argue.
    You can put up mad points in the AHL, but if you are doing at 25 it really doesnt matter.You are so unlikely to make it to the NHL (unless Steve Y is your GM)

    That is a hilarious list. It proves my point exactly. It has a few washouts true but an NHL list would also have washouts. It also has Brendon Pirri, Tyler Johnson, Jonathan Marchesault, Marc Arcobello, a young Brett Connolly, all players who have proven they can score at the NHL level.

    In any case, your argument is rationally incoherent. That someone didn’t stick in the NHL is not evidence that they couldn’t play in the NHL. We both know, and agree, that there are players who succeed in the AHL who don’t ultimately succeed in the NHL. Finding instances of these players is non-responsive to the argument that is being made.

    My contention is that players who score in the AHL can score in the NHL and the evidence is that they do, in fact, score in the NHL. The reason they don’t stick in the NHL is not because they don’t score (they do) it is that they aren’t given an opportunity to continue the scoring they are already doing because teams don’t even notice they are scoring because they don’t understand the difference between production and opportunity.

    Marc Arcobello was a lifetime 1.5 pts/60 player in the NHL. He was a good player, much better than other players that were kept instead of him.

  73. Jethro Tull says:

    jonrmcleod:
    During the press conference the other day with Bob Nicholson, Keith Gretzky was asked, “Who’s going to make that call [i.e., the call to make various moves at the draft]?

    KG’s answer: “Well, it’ll be the GM at the end of the day–whoever that is. And, you know, I know he’ll go TO US OR WHOEVER IT IS to lean on different ideas of the prospects and, you know, what we think can help our hockey club.”

    Seems like KG might have inadvertently revealed that he’s willing to stay on if a new GM is hired then tried to cover that up by adding “or whoever it is.”

    Or maybe I’m reading too much into that.

    As long as the advice is to use picks in your first draft as GM of the Oilers on ex-Oil Kings……

  74. Bulging Twine says:

    iirc Kreuger said his interest in coming back to the NHL wouldn’t be in coaching.
    I don’t see him as being a good GM candidate at the moment as he has been out of the league for 5 or 6 years. A lot has changed in that time. He needs to get reacquainted with the game.
    I would see him as a POHO candidate. The Oilers aren’t looking for a POHO. Ottawa is however.
    The lessons he has learned from another sport culture could be very valuable to an organization in a league looking for competitive advantage. Studies on creativity reveal that creativity often results from applying knowledge gained from a different setting to a new setting.

  75. Reja says:

    Jethro Tull: Hextall was fired from Philly because he supposedly was a lone gun. The verbal from the Oilers is that Pistol Pete was the same. If we hire Hextall, it would pre-suppose Pete didn’t act alone……

    This is not an easy hire for the Oilers and they did this to themselves. It’s exactly the reason you don’t let ex-GMs hang around in whatever capacity.

    I would love Hexall somebody with balls and not mister nice guy when it comes to contracts. Wonder why they canned his ass in Philly you would have to a agenda to not see his vision and results Philly looks to be a fine team in the upcoming years.

  76. Bulging Twine says:

    On losing Woodcroft to MacLellan:

    I’m not sure that going back to being an Assistant coach would be a good career move. I think the better move for him if he wants to be an NHL head coach would be to remain where he is, an AHL head coach, on a team that he’s had success with and looks to perhaps have even more talent next season.

  77. Bulging Twine says:

    jtblack: Hextall also dealt Brayden Schenn for Jori Lehtera & a late1st rounder ….poor trade.I don’t expect any GM to be perfect, but Hextall’s track record was not all rose’s ..

    The trade was for two first rounders who turned out to be Morgan Frost and Joel Farabee. Lehtera was included to make the $ work.

  78. Alpine says:

    Bulging Twine,

    It does seem a little more favourable to be an AHL coach over the past few years. Tocchet, Reirden, Berube and Brind’amour got promoted from assistant coach to head coach on the same team.

    Cooper, Cassidy, Travis Green, Blashill, Colliton, Bednar, Mike Sullivan and Scott Gordon (interim) went from AHL head coach to NHL head coach with the same organization.

    Boughner and Housley were promoted from assistants of a different team. John Hynes was hired by NJ from Pittsburgh’s AHL team.

    That’s just 2018-19 coaches. Haven’t looked through other coaching carousels over the years.

  79. OriginalPouzar says:

    Cassandra:
    Benson and Marody have proven (to me) they can play in the NHL.I would start them in them in the AHL anyway and fill their spots with guys that aren’t waiver exempt.That way you get more good players, not less, and your organization has much better depth.

    I can’t agree that they have proven to be able to play in the NHL as they haven’t actually done so. In fact, in his earlier stint in the NHL, although the coach didn’t really put him in a position to succeed, Marody’s lack of speed was exposed and he was essentially a non-factor that showed he wasn’t ready.

    He has upped his game in the AHL since then, as has Benson, and both could very well be NHL ready but neither has proven it yet.

    Both should (and will) get that shot this fall.

  80. Bulging Twine says:

    The attributes that Nicholson has stated that he is looking for in the GM are:

    1) Talent identification
    2) Communication throughout hockey ops
    3) Ability to bring in analytics & Sport Science into the organization

    publicly he has dropped the requirement to understand this culture

  81. leadfarmer says:

    Cassandra,

    The list is funny cause it proves your argument is flawed Pick the next year if you would rather. The guys that are younger than 23 are there to grow and make it into the NHL. The guys over 23 are hanging on to the most slim chance they make it. They are just not good enough to get a shot and most will not. This is not they got dumped by one organization. These guys make their way from one to the next hoping for their chance but they just arent good enough. They either retire or go oversees
    This is not that hard to understand

  82. jp says:

    Cassandra:
    or if baseball used RBI as a measure of productivity (power play time).It is no less absurd to do the same thing in hockey.

    Baseball doesn’t use RBI as a (THE) measure of productivity? I guess you learn something new every day.

  83. pts2pndr says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Another BUY LOW candidate for puck-moving 2RD who is mis-cast and under-appreciated (to put it mildly):

    Nikita Zaitsev. Ok, don’t laugh, I’m serious. This guy played 39% against elites this year with 41.01 OZS% in those minutes, yet he produced a 48.3 CF%, 48.4 DFF% and 59.3 GF%.

    Overall this year he played the 2nd most minutes on the team (D category), with 49.9 CF%, 49.4 DFF% and 50.0 GF% despite 41.80 OZS% – while every other defender got 48+ OZS.

    In 2016-17 (his first year in the league), Zaitsev played 43.5% against elites – the most on the team in both percentage and total minutes. Rielly was the only one close but Zaitsev got more defensive zone starts (46.81%). He was 50.9 CF%, 49.8 DFF% and 43.3 GF% in those minutes. Welcome to the NHL, kid.

    In 2017-18 his TOI against elites was reduced to 36% (3rd on team) and his OZS% raised to 47.5% and he absolutely killed it, getting a 74.2 GF%. His Corsi and Fenwick were slightly under 50 though, so maybe he was just running hot.

    This is a guy who, at least in the eyes of most Leafs fans, would be a cap dump, available along with a pick for Future Considerations. Or maybe they’d take Russell back? They DO need players who can defend on the right side after all.

    Downside: his scoring has decreased every year, and he has 5 more years x $4.5M.

    Discuss.

    The cost is prohibitive if he doesn’t work out. What we need is a reasonably sure thing given our cap problem. In the unlikely case you could do a one for one for Russel or Sekera I would consider it.

  84. Numenius says:

    Bulging Twine:
    The attributes that Nicholson has stated that he is looking for in the GM are:

    1) Talent identification
    2) Communication throughout hockey ops
    3) Ability to bring in analytics & Sport Science into the organization

    publicly he has dropped the requirement to understand this culture

    I’d hope he also has skillful cap management on the list. The economic stuff is crucial, especially in the Oilers’ case. For awhile, it’ll be a lot like stick handling in a phone booth.

    Good to see the addition of analytics and drop of the reference to culture.

  85. Reja says:

    Cassandra: I think you are wrong.In any case, this is classic question begging.That organizations moved on from a player is not evidence they were right to move on from them.Especially, since what we are trying to identify is players that other teams have made mistakes on.

    There are two things that we know with absolute certainty.

    1) There are more players that are good enough to play in the NHL than actually play in the NHL.
    2) There are players in the NHL who should not be in the NHL.

    The NHL does not identify or distribute talent efficiently.We know this.The best players in the AHL are significantly better than the worst players in the NHL.We know this.

    At least 25 percent of the league could be replaced tomorrow with better players take away players with terrible contracts and the fringe players there are a lot of darn good players that had their paths blocked or not liked as much for personal reasons or draft pedigree.

  86. Oil2Oilers says:

    Something that is over looked in a lot of today’s commentary on Krueger’s fitness for the POHO roll is his management ability. Not speaking here of hockey or football (after a decade living in Britain I can assure you there are plenty on morons in EPL management) but general business/organizational management skills.

    Ralph is not only a published author on the subject, but as one of the founders of the World Economic Form he at least annually informed on recent developments. I have seen many interviews where he mentions keeping abreast of management and leadership trends and ideas. This commitment to learning and actively seeking of ideas makes him completely unsuitable for the current Oilers management culture and exactly what they need.

    Good management and leadership skills are transferable, see Krueger’s career as an example. Good management and leadership skills have been sadly lacking in the Oilers organization, hockey men, cup winners, all time great players they got stacked to the rafters.

  87. Cassandra says:

    leadfarmer:
    Cassandra,

    The list is funny cause it proves your argument is flawed Pick the next year if you would rather.The guys that are younger than 23 are there to grow and make it into the NHL.The guys over 23 are hanging on to the most slim chance they make it.They are just not good enough to get a shot and most will not.This is not they got dumped by one organization.These guys make their way from one to the next hoping for their chance but they just arent good enough.They either retire or go oversees
    This is not that hard to understand

    I agree that it isn’t hard to understand. You are confusing cause and effect. You are saying that they don’t make it because they aren’t good enough and that is why guys over 23 don’t make it. I am saying they don’t make it because teams think they aren’t good enough, and the reasons teams think they aren’t good enough is because they are over 23 and haven’t made it yet.

    There is no meaningful difference in ability between someone like Alex Chiasson and someone like Daniel Carr. The difference is opportunity. The AHL numbers tell us this. The NHL numbers tell us this. If anything, Carr’s numbers are better on both fronts. The Oilers should let someone else sign Chiasson to a multi year deal and sign the guy who is free.

    Your argument amounts to NHL teams don’t carry a systematic bias against certain types of players, and that they do a good job of allocating opportunity. We know this isn’t true. And we know why as well, they don’t do a good job of allocating opportunity because the heuristic of top six forwards systematically undervalues skill players in favour of guys who play the game the “right” way. Teams are starting to depart from this and run 3 skilled lines. Those teams are winning. Toronto even runs 4 skill lines at times. That is smart.

    In any case, that someone doesn’t make it to the NHL cannot be an argument to justify the claim that they shouldn’t have made it to the NHL. That is a tautological argument. You know this.

  88. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Another BUY LOW candidate for puck-moving 2RD who is mis-cast and under-appreciated (to put it mildly):

    Nikita Zaitsev. Ok, don’t laugh, I’m serious. This guy played 39% against elites this year with 41.01 OZS% in those minutes, yet he produced a 48.3 CF%, 48.4 DFF% and 59.3 GF%.

    Overall this year he played the 2nd most minutes on the team (D category), with 49.9 CF%, 49.4 DFF% and 50.0 GF% despite 41.80 OZS% – while every other defender got 48+ OZS.

    In 2016-17 (his first year in the league), Zaitsev played 43.5% against elites – the most on the team in both percentage and total minutes. Rielly was the only one close but Zaitsev got more defensive zone starts (46.81%). He was 50.9 CF%, 49.8 DFF% and 43.3 GF% in those minutes. Welcome to the NHL, kid.

    In 2017-18 his TOI against elites was reduced to 36% (3rd on team) and his OZS% raised to 47.5% and he absolutely killed it, getting a 74.2 GF%. His Corsi and Fenwick were slightly under 50 though, so maybe he was just running hot.

    This is a guy who, at least in the eyes of most Leafs fans, would be a cap dump, available along with a pick for Future Considerations. Or maybe they’d take Russell back? They DO need players who can defend on the right side after all.

    Downside: his scoring has decreased every year, and he has 5 more years x $4.5M.

    Discuss.

    Raw data isn’t useful as it doesn’t give much context.

    His relative DFF vs. Elite was 2nd worst among regulars and semi regulars ahead of only rookie Ozhiganov

    All of his shitty rel is on the offensive side which indicates that he struggles to help exit the zone with the puck

    I’d need to see WoodWOWY to make sure, but those aren’t ready yet.

  89. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Anton Lander got 1.16pts/60 in 153 minutes with Hall.

  90. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Anton Lander got 1.16pts/60 in 153 minutes with Hall.

    And he was slow. I think Lander was a good choice at no. 40 but he had much to overcome. He was solid on the PK though iirc.

  91. OriginalPouzar says:

    London and Guelph starting. I think London finishes them off and then we see Samorukov on the Bake.

    Would prefer Bouchard to get the AHL time (we know with certainty that Samorukov will be there next year but not quite with Bouchard) but it’s not going to happen.

  92. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide: And he was slow. I think Lander was a good choice at no. 40 but he had much to overcome. He was solid on the PK though iirc.

    Was so stoked after the 2009 draft.

    Envisioned Paajarvi scoring 30 going 100mph down the wing and Lander being MacT 3C for the team.

    I was so young then.

  93. YKOil says:

    leadfarmer:
    Cassandra,
    The list is funny cause it proves your argument is flawed Pick the next year if you would rather.The guys that are younger than 23 are there to grow and make it into the NHL.The guys over 23 are hanging on to the most slim chance they make it.They are just not good enough to get a shot and most will not.This is not they got dumped by one organization.These guys make their way from one to the next hoping for their chance but they just arent good enough.They either retire or go oversees

    This is not that hard to understand

    The exception does not make the rule.

    – Yes, Todd Nelson got more out of Anton Lander than other coaches.
    – Yes, technically, being a good penalty killer, Anton Lander may have been better for the 2018/19 roster than other players
    – Yes, maybe, Anton Lander would have been a great fit with any combination of players on the 2018/19 Oilers roster

    But none of that means Anton Lander was a solid NHL player, his established level of ability was somewhere between cup-of-coffee/recall guy and journeyman; and that was BEFORE the game got faster (like it is today)… back when Lucic was a force.

    Awareness/Hockey Sense followed by Skating followed by Speed – these are the key skills of today. The more one area lags behind the others the more another area needs to be ahead just to keep the whole on an even keel.

    Compete level matters but it is almost a binary attribute – you lack compete level you won’t make the show.

    I get Cassandra’s point in a general sense – Vegas was built on giving 3rd line guys a bigger/better chance BUT even there the true story has nuance:

    1. Vegas scouted the hell out of every player targeted so they were after guys who fit the template; and
    2. They got a little lucky and some of those players turned out MUCH better than even they expected (no way in hell McPhee expected 40+ goals out of Karlsson).

    There are Marchessault-types out there, but for every one of those there dozens and dozens of Lander-types.

  94. Bulging Twine says:

    Tampa having trouble with CLB work and checking

  95. Bulging Twine says:

    Columbus dominating this first period

  96. Scungilli Slushy says:

    YKOil: The exception does not make the rule.

    – Yes, Todd Nelson got more out of Anton Lander than other coaches.
    – Yes, technically, being a good penalty killer, Anton Lander may have been better for the 2018/19 roster than other players
    – Yes, maybe, Anton Lander would have been a great fit with any combination of players on the 2018/19 Oilers roster

    But none of that means Anton Lander was a solid NHL player, his established level of ability was somewhere between cup-of-coffee/recall guy and journeyman; and that was BEFORE the game got faster (like it is today)… back when Lucic was a force.

    Awareness/Hockey Sense followed by Skating followed by Speed – these are the key skills of today.The more one area lags behind the others the more another area needs to be ahead just to keep the whole on an even keel.

    Compete level matters but it is almost a binary attribute – you lack compete level you won’t make the show.

    I get Cassandra’s point in a general sense – Vegas was built on giving 3rd line guys a bigger/better chance BUT even there the true story has nuance:

    1. Vegas scouted the hell out of every player targeted so they were after guys who fit the template; and
    2. They got a little lucky and some of those players turned out MUCH better than even they expected (no way in hell McPhee expected 40+ goals out of Karlsson).

    There are Marchessault-types out there, but for every one of those there dozens and dozens of Lander-types.

    What did Gilman who helped set up the expansion draft call it, talent harvest?

    LV weren’t mad genius, the league made it so talent was available as opposed to other expansion drafts. They did well enough, but we’ll see how it pans out once the cap takes its grip.

  97. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Lander is a smart player, but being a bit smaller than average in a heavier time combined with bland skating made it tough.

    He also played a very sit back style (like many bland skaters do) and cover areas instead of attacking the puck carrier. Now it is the kiss of death. As Oiler fans we get to see lots of guys waiving sticks or snow angels at players blowing by.

    With a Benevides style bend don’t break coach he may have been ok. Maybe another team could have found a place for him.

  98. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bouchard and Samorukov excel on this play.

    https://twitter.com/edmfuturewatch/status/1116858253504335873?s=12

  99. Professor Q says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Bouchard and Samorukov excel on this play.

    https://twitter.com/edmfuturewatch/status/1116858253504335873?s=12

    This is such an exciting game live. I’m on the uppermost seat you can get but it’s so fun.

    This is the first playoff game I’ve ever been to. I’m never offering to buy everyone beer again…

  100. Glovjuice says:

    Pescador: It’s both hilarious and sad that one (or several) posters on this blog could have built a better roster than Peter Chiarelli did in 4 years

    It’s easy. All he had to do was literally no trades. It’s fucked, totally fucked.

  101. godot10 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Anton Lander got 1.16pts/60 in 153 minutes with Hall.

    Hall and an AHL/tweener type RW against the toughs or 2ND toughs.

  102. Reja says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    Lander is a smart player, but being a bit smaller than average in a heavier time combined with bland skating made it tough.

    He also played a very sit back style (like many bland skaters do) and cover areas instead of attacking the puck carrier. Now it is the kiss of death. As Oiler fans we get to see lots of guys waiving sticks or snow angels at players blowing by.

    With a Benevides style bend don’t break coach he may have been ok. Maybe another team could have found a place for him.

    Oilers could of found a spot easily on the roster for him I like him never thought he recieved a fair shake long enough up down up down from the minors.

  103. godot10 says:

    The Oilers PK hasn’t been good since they dumped Lander and Pitlick got hurt and then dumped.

    Nugent-Hopkins shots against on the PK is so bad because he cannot win a faceoff. Lander could.

    Lander also drew penalties and tended not to be a drag in net differential like most other Oiler bottom sixes.

  104. Professor Q says:

    Bouchard is getting frustrated. Knights keep shooting centre of mass and the Guelph goalie is having none of it.

    He was wide open for a point shot, and the guy shot centre of mass again instead of passing to open Bouchard.

    Bouchard slams his stick. Knights have been on the PP for like 6 minutes now and can’t get anything going.

  105. Glovjuice says:

    jtblack:
    in other important news.

    It is ” NATIONAL GRILL CHEESE DAY ”

    And fuck, did you see the Genie Bouchard tweet of her on the beach eating one. Wow.

  106. ArmchairGM says:

    Woodguy v2.0: All of his shitty rel is on the offensive side which indicates that he struggles to help exit the zone with the puck

    Part of the data I posted indicates that he STARTS in the d-zone more often than his teammates though, that surely impacts the rels? Easy to have good rels if you start closer to the other teams net than your own. If on the Oilers he would have lower TOI vs Elites and higher OZS% which should improve results.

  107. ArmchairGM says:

    Bulging Twine:
    Columbus dominating this first period

    Has a Presidents Trophy winner ever been swept in the 1st round before?

  108. Reja says:

    godot10:
    The Oilers PK hasn’t been good since they dumped Lander and Pitlick got hurt and then dumped.

    Nugent-Hopkins shots against on the PK is so bad because he cheats cannot win a faceoff.Lander could.

    Lander also drew penalties and tended not to be a drag in net differential like most other Oiler bottom sixes.

    RNH gets beat so cleanly on important faceoffs you think he would figure it out how to cheat blah blah yea it’s killer when you can’t win a faceoff on the PK big reason why our Pk is bad when the opposition is already setting up 5 seconds into the PK.

  109. stephenw24 says:

    Just an idea with all the young D-men we have coming in the future does anyone think Charlie Huddy would ever come back as a Defense coach? He certainly did good things as part of mact’s coaching staff and after a short stint in Dallas has done good things with Winnipeg.

    Prob doesnt’t fit with the themes of the day being a new gm and coaching staff and out with the old. I just wondered what thoughts might be.

  110. Professor Q says:

    stephenw24:
    Just an idea with all the young D-men we have coming in the future does anyone think Charlie Huddy would ever come back as a Defense coach?He certainly did good things as part of mact’s coaching staff and after a short stint in Dallas has done good things with Winnipeg.

    Prob doesnt’t fit with the themes of the day being a new gm and coaching staff and out with the old. I just wondered what thoughts might be.

    He has been sorely missed but maybe he got out of the toxic environment just in time.

  111. Mr DeBakey says:

    Eberle looking pretty soft for the Islanders again tonight.
    And Barzal? Overrated.

  112. Pescador says:

    Glovjuice: And fuck, did you see the Genie Bouchard tweet of her on the beach eating one. Wow.

    I wish it was National hotdog day

  113. ArmchairGM says:

    TB is playing with zero urgency.

  114. Chelios is a Dinosaur says:

    Listening to CBJ radio as its all I can get to stream on this Via train…

    “You know his name, its Matt Duschene!”

    Great call, timeless.

    “Bake me a bread loaf, bread man!”

    …On the other hand…

  115. Réal Goudenyéu says:

    ArmchairGM:
    TB is playing with zero urgency.

    They’re gonna get swept and be remembered for the one of the biggest chokes in NHL history.

  116. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    ArmchairGM: Part of the data I posted indicates that he STARTS in the d-zone more often than his teammates though, that surely impacts the rels? Easy to have good rels if you start closer to the other teams net than your own. If on the Oilers he would have lower TOI vs Elites and higher OZS% which should improve results.

    No, zone starts don’t move the needle as much as we used to think.

    Most zone starts are earned.

    https://puckplusplus.com/2015/01/15/how-much-do-zone-starts-matter-i-maybe-not-as-much-as-we-thought/

    and

    https://puckplusplus.com/2015/01/20/how-much-do-zone-starts-matter-part-ii-a-lot-on-their-own-not-that-much-in-aggregate/

    Dellow showed that OTF (on the fly) shifts matter a lot more.

    We measure face off frequency at puckiq.

    Zaitsev shows up there in the same spot he shows up in other analysis, 2nd pair.

    Name FO/60
    Ron Hainsey 72.9
    Morgan Rielly 70.3
    Nikita Zaitsev 63.1
    Jake Gardiner 60.9
    Jake Muzzin 59.5
    Travis Dermott 49.8
    Igor Ozhiganov 45.2

  117. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    stephenw24:
    Just an idea with all the young D-men we have coming in the future does anyone think Charlie Huddy would ever come back as a Defense coach?He certainly did good things as part of mact’s coaching staff and after a short stint in Dallas has done good things with Winnipeg.

    Prob doesnt’t fit with the themes of the day being a new gm and coaching staff and out with the old. I just wondered what thoughts might be.

    CALL UP CHARLIE HUDDY!

  118. Professor Q says:

    The Guelph Storm fan gentleman beside my group just told me to “shut up” after my “Go Knights Go” chant.

    This is how fights are started.

  119. Chelios is a Dinosaur says:

    CBJ radio guy is awesome

  120. who says:

    Mr DeBakey:
    Eberle looking pretty soft for the Islanders again tonight.
    And Barzal?Overrated.

    Still don’t consider him a big loss, but credit where credit is due. That second period was the best I’ve seen Eberle play in a long time.

  121. Professor Q says:

    I am quite unlucky while attending games. Usually the home team loses.

    Lucky that I’m able to attend, however.

  122. Buddy says:

    Mr DeBakey:
    Eberle looking pretty soft for the Islanders again tonight.
    And Barzal?Overrated.

    Ebs!

    Gotta love it! Now that’s Chiarelli Bruins hockey

  123. Ryan says:

    Woodguy v2.0: CALL UP CHARLIE HUDDY!

    Didn’t you pick St Louis over the Jets?

    I can blame you then if my Jets lose this series. 😉

  124. Professor Q says:

    Guelph scores a late-minute goal to make it 3-1.

    Bouchard takes out the goal-scorer and then punches the linesman.

  125. HugThePost says:

    geez the goal Eberle just scored fills my heart with hate towards the OIlers.

  126. Ryan says:

    I’m calling it.

    Blues vs Jackets in the SCF.

  127. ashley says:

    Eberle so soft in the playoffs. Perennial 60 point man with 25 goals and skill galore. Makes one soft play in one playoff game and management decides he’s terrible.

    Why are we so bad? This is why we are so bad.

  128. HugThePost says:

    The noise and jubilation in Long Island in games 1 and 2 makes my heart black towards the Oilers org. They have forced all of us to live vicariously through ex-Oilers.

    It would be delicious if NYI ends up facing TOR in the Conference finals.

  129. Younger Oil says:

    Still not a big fan of gifting a playoff team a really good second line that is winning them postseason games against a perrenial powerhouse.

    They get Eberle, Barzal, and Beauviller, we get Khaira not getting selected in the expansion draft and a past his prime Sam Gagner.

    That is going to set this team back for a long, long time.

  130. Derek says:

    HugThePost:
    The noise and jubilation in Long Island in games 1 and 2 makes my heart black towards the Oilers org.They have forced all of us to live vicariously through ex-Oilers.

    It would be delicious if NYI ends up facing TOR in the Conference finals.

    Agreed. I’m happy to see Eberle excelling for the Islanders in big games but I feel a kind of visceral disgust that the Oilers organization only gave him that opportunity once and decided he wasn’t good enough after one poor postseason showing.

  131. Bulging Twine says:

    Professor Q:
    Guelph scores a late-minute goal to make it 3-1.

    Bouchard takes out the goal-scorer and then punches the linesman.

    What?

  132. Wilde says:

    Georgexs: Your rhetorical skills are without peer on this site.

    ?!

  133. Professor Q says:

    Bulging Twine: What?

    It was accidental as he tried to punch out the goal-scorer (who he had leveled post-goal scoring), but hit the linesman, who was separating them, instead.

    Makes for a great headline, however.

  134. Bulging Twine says:

    Kucherov was arrogantly undisciplined tonight. Looked frustrated like hockey was all of a sudden hard when it had been easy all year.

  135. Bulging Twine says:

    Professor Q: It was accidental as he tried to punch out the goal-scorer (who he had leveled post-goal scoring), but hit the linesman, who was separating them, instead.

    Makes for a great headline, however.

    How’s he looked tonight?

  136. Glovjuice says:

    Pescador: I wish it was National hotdog day

    Yikes, she is a peach for sure.

  137. SK Oiler Fan says:

    We all knew this already and the playoffs are the ultimate small sample size but the evidence just keeps piling up. The Oilers pro scouts are incompetent. Starting over there is job #1 for the next GM puppet of this org.
    My God how could they get so much wrong for so many years and stay employed

  138. Glovjuice says:

    ashley:
    Eberle so soft in the playoffs.Perennial 60 point man with 25 goals and skill galore.Makes one soft play in one playoff game and management decides he’s terrible.

    Why are we so bad?This is why we are so bad.

    Gorgeous post. This team is so stupid.

  139. Glovjuice says:

    Ryan:
    Ryan,

    Spooner for Strome was asinine.

    Stunningly horrendous trade – absolutely stupid. How can any GM be so oblivious.

  140. SK Oiler Fan says:

    Bulging Twine:
    Kucherov was arrogantly undisciplined tonight.Looked frustrated like hockey was all of a sudden hard when it had been easy all year.

    When you play in a division that prioritizes defence and physicality like a rec team the offense comes easy. Been that way down there for a while

  141. Bulging Twine says:

    I don’t imagine Gravel is going to want to resign here given the lack of games he was given down the stretch and all the young drafted D we have.

  142. Glovjuice says:

    Younger Oil:
    Still not a big fan of gifting a playoff team a really good second line that is winning them postseason games against a perrenial powerhouse.

    They get Eberle, Barzal, and Beauviller, we get Khaira not getting selected in the expansion draft and a past his prime Sam Gagner.

    That is going to set this team back for a long, long time.

    Going…… going. You mean………has.

  143. Rebillled says:

    Eberle, Barzal, Maroon, Perron

    Goiler playoffs

    We put the ffs in playoffs

  144. Munny says:

    Rebillled: We put the ffs in playoffs

    *wisers clap*

  145. Bulging Twine says:

    “it’s also easy to be overwhelmed by the voices who say everything’s wrong when in truth sunshine finds its way into the very room you’re sitting in. The downbeat boys aren’t always right, it just seems that way.
    The trick is to find whatever truth is.”

    Good words man

  146. Reja says:

    Bulging Twine:
    Kucherov was arrogantly undisciplined tonight.Looked frustrated like hockey was all of a sudden hard when it had been easy all year.

    Tampa hasn’t had to play with any urgency all year when Columbus is on their game they sure look unbeatable the Caps were lucky to knock them out last year.

  147. Bulging Twine says:

    Reja: Tampa hasn’t had to play with any urgency all year when Columbus is on their game they sure look unbeatable the Caps were lucky to knock them out last year.

    Columbus was ON tonight. Fast, hard and Bobrovsky looked dialled in.

  148. Reja says:

    Bulging Twine: Columbus was ON tonight.Fast, hard and Bobrovsky looked dialled in.

    I love Josh Anderson I would go hard for him Caleb Jones plus a second it would probably take more.

  149. Bulging Twine says:

    Reja: I love Josh Anderson I would go hard for him Caleb Jones plus a second it would probably take more.

    Yeah he was real good tonight

  150. Reja says:

    It’s pretty hard watching ex Oilers play so well tonight and no word on Connor’s knee. I’ve watched the Oilers since day one and seeing no response to Gio or any other Flame was sad for this organization

  151. Glovjuice says:

    Reja:
    It’s pretty hard watching ex Oilers play so well tonight and no word on Connor’s knee. I’ve watched the Oilers since day one and seeing no response to Gio or any other Flamewas sad for this organization

    Yeah, it was awful. More awful behaviour that night gets Kako. It’s fucked. Totally fucked.

  152. HT Joe says:

    I haven’t seen this posted here yet

    https://www.tsn.ca/mcdavid-to-begin-rehab-on-leg-immediately-1.1289914

    So, re-hab… that implies no surgery, so that should be good news right?

  153. Gerta Rauss says:

    HT Joe:
    I haven’t seen this posted here yet

    https://www.tsn.ca/mcdavid-to-begin-rehab-on-leg-immediately-1.1289914

    So, re-hab… that implies no surgery, so that should be good news right?

    That’s sorta good news, I think

    Maybe

    I hope

  154. Ribs says:

    HT Joe:
    I haven’t seen this posted here yet

    https://www.tsn.ca/mcdavid-to-begin-rehab-on-leg-immediately-1.1289914

    So, re-hab… that implies no surgery, so that should be good news right?

    According to Oilers Law, this means he will play at half capacity for one to two seasons before undergoing surgery to repair the injury, which will cost him a season’s worth of games played.

    *Facepalm*

  155. Professor Q says:

    Bulging Twine: How’s he looked tonight?

    Good, with lapses of judgment and play, paired with frustration in himself and his team it seemed which led to more lapses.

    Swffing on pucks, accidentally giving the puck up when not wanting to, passing to the opposite side of his target and giving the puck away to Guelph instead, etc.

    Some nice moves (even some nice puck handling tricks) and rushes, and a beautiful shot. But not enough at the end of the day

    Better luck next game!

  156. OriginalPouzar says:

    ashley:
    Eberle so soft in the playoffs.Perennial 60 point man with 25 goals and skill galore.Makes one soft play in one playoff game and management decides he’s terrible.

    Why are we so bad?This is why we are so bad.

    100% the verbal related to Eberle’s playoff performance was catastrophic and there was never any trutht to “he needed to go” or he was “addition by subtraction” and I would absolutely take him back for 2-3 years at apx $4M – that contract because that is what his performance duing his time on the Island warrants because he is absolutely not a perennial 25G/60P guy and hasn’t been for about 4 years.

  157. OriginalPouzar says:

    Its just ambiguous, even I can’t defend management for sending out this tweet, let along on a Friday night – all its going to do is send Oil Country in to a frenzy:

    Edmonton Oilers

    Verified account

    @EdmontonOilers
    Following Following @EdmontonOilers
    More
    UPDATE: The #Oilers medical staff, in collaboration with top orthopedic specialists, have determined a rehabilitation protocol for Connor McDavid, which will begin immediately.

  158. Greenberg says:

    Can we trade Gagner for Eberle?

  159. OriginalPouzar says:

    Small PCL tear. No surgery required. Will be ready for camp.

  160. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Small PCL tear.No surgery required.Will be ready for camp.

    Will he be a 100 percent or ever be.

  161. Bulging Twine says:

    Professor Q: Good, with lapses of judgment and play, paired with frustration in himself and his team it seemed which led to more lapses.

    Swffing on pucks, accidentally giving the puck up when not wanting to, passing to the opposite side of his target and giving the puck away to Guelph instead, etc.

    Some nice moves (even some nice puck handling tricks) and rushes, and a beautiful shot. But not enough at the end of the day

    Better luck next game!

    thanks

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