Sad Songs and Waltzes

To be honest, I had a tough time figuring out Peter Chiarelli’s language. He used vague terms. “Heavy sticks” and “higher pace” but was quick to add that didn’t necessarily mean speed.

PC once said the following: “Thinking more quickly, moving the puck through all three zones more quickly. You know you start at some point on the rink, whether it’s breaking out, whether it’s recovering in the neutral zone, whether it’s how you attack in the offensive zone, how you manage odd man rushes. It’s across the spectrum.”

I have yet to hear a coherent statement about the difference between speed and pace. Grover taught near and far, maybe he can tackle speed and pace.

THE ATHLETIC

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group.INSANE NEW OFFER IS HERE!

  • New Lowetide: Ron Hextall’s patient approach as GM would be shock to Oilers’ system
  • New Jonathan Willis: Michael Futa’s success at the NHL Draft makes him a credible GM candidate for the Oilers
  • Lowetide: The Oilers possible summer trade pieces, and which longtime players might be saying goodbye.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ten prospects likely to be available when the Oilers make their first-round pick.
  • Jonathan Willis: Bob Nicholson mostly says the right things, but stalls on making changes to the Oilers.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The pressure’s squarely on Bob Nicholson to make right GM hire for Oilers.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers Report Cards: Few passing grades remain in season full of failure.
  • Lowetide: How winning the draft lottery and drafting Jack Hughes could transform the Oilers.
  • Lowetide: The Oilers have a trio of Condors blue pushing and all three are tracking well. How does this group compare to the Petry, Chorney, Wild college men from a decade ago?
  • Jonathan Willis: Connor McDavid’s frustration should be seen by the Oilers as a warning of possible disaster.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers have another problem to solve: Lifting the cloud over a clearly frustrated Connor McDavid
  • Lowetide: What Mark Hunter’s draft record in Toronto means for his Oilers GM candidacy.
  • Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers, the republic of Finland and the 2019 draft.
  • Lowetide: The Oilers made a rare move and shopped the QMJHL at the 2018 draft. It could happen again.
  • Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers draft early, the WHL is loaded and there’s a lot of history.
  • Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers and the OHL.

CHIARELLI’S NEEDS LIST ONE YEAR AGO

Defense: I think our speed starts at the back end and getting the puck up through the zones quickly. That’s not putting all the onus on the defense, but I that’s part of it, and so that’s an area where we’ll have to tweak.”

He was counting on a healthy Oscar Klefbom, a healthy Andrej Sekera and enough from Darnell Nurse, Adam Larsson and Matt Benning to make outlet passing something better than a weakness. Sekera got hurt before training camp, Klefbom went down when the team was 17-12-2 (won the game in which he and Russell were hurt) but went 18-26-7 afterward.

Chiarelli didn’t add enough after Sekera’s injury signing only Jakub Jerabek and Jason Garrison for 2018-19. Slim pickings out there, I get it, but the Oilers once again left the station without balance.

Scoring forward(s): So we could do a better job finding a winger or two, it’s certainly on the to-do list, but I think our wingers, you know they’re obviously not good enough as a whole when you look at our performance this year, but I don’t think we should just pin it on the wingers.”

Le sigh. Chiarelli would get exceptional value in a late signing of Alex Chiasson, but Tobias Rieder was the only other substantial addition. What’s more, Chiarelli’s mid-season moves to shore up the position proved worthy of a Poe novella.

Backup goalie:I know we have contracted goalies for next year, Cam and Al Montoya. But it’s (upgrading backup) certainly, that’s closer near the top of the list of things to look at, and it’s something that we’ll have to look at closely, because there are rigors of the travel schedule, there are rigors of playing a lot of games. I would hope that Cam is our goalie going forward, like beyond next year, contractually he goes to next year, so we have to put him in a position to succeed too. And we have to manage that better, and I’ve talked to Todd and the staff, about managing that better. Managing it better means maybe you need a better alternative too.”

I think PC did a good job here, although the second Koskinen contract was premature and an overpay. That said, Mikko Koskinen gives the Oilers an NHL starter, albeit at the lower end and requiring a substantial backpup. There’s plenty of room to be critical, but with so much low hanging fruit I find it difficult to dig in on the decision to make the original signing.

The 1994-born forwards: Did we over project on a couple of young guys? Maybe early on we did, and you know part of what we’re trying to accomplish here, is getting each age group of players to progress, and whether it’s the earlier really top end players to inherit, not just more responsibility playing but more responsibility leading, whether it’s those group of 94’s, get them to take the next step so that we have a real good gradual churn that’ll take place, and it’s hard. So that was as a management perspective, that is in part what we were trying to do, and you know when you talk about the under-performance of wingers, there’s some young wingers you’re talking about, whether it’s Jesse or the 94s. So we’re trying to do that, sometimes it’s a little bit forcing it, but that’s kind of part of the overall plan that we’re trying to accomplish here, and that plays a part of it.

The “94’s” were Drake Caggila, Anton Slepyshev and Jujhar Khaira, and Jesse Puljujarvi was also mentioned. You could include Ty Rattie and Valentin Zykov if so inclined. Anyway, only Khaira and JP are left and the Finn is hanging by a thread.

What a summer. Tomorrow, we’ll suss out the needs for 2019 June-July.

KAILER YAMAMOTO

One player likely to be in camp who both plays wing and has skill is Kailer Yamamoto. Edmonton’s AHL prospects have enjoyed mostly positive seasons, but Yamamoto has struggled with injury and in posting numbers. Our friend Eric Rodgers last ran his numbers March 19, here are the forwards NHL equivalencies. You’d like 30+ for all legit prospects, anything over 35 points is excellent.

  1. Cooper Marody 41.75
  2. Jesse Puljujarvi 38.54
  3. Tyler Benson 36.55
  4. Joe Gambardella 36.13
  5. Josh Currie 29.1
  6. Cam Hebig 27.35
  7. Patrick Russell 27.30
  8. Kailer Yamamoto 25.2
  9. Brad Malone 22.56
  10. Mitch Callahan 18.59
  11. Dave Gust 17.66
  12. Evan Polei 16.13
  13. Tyler Vesel 12.85
  14. Nolan Vesey 8.56
  15. Braden Christoffer 8.26
  16. Luke Esposito 6.88

Yamamoto has also missed many games with injury, thereby giving this season the overall feeling of being lost. He hasn’t played since March 22 and was dressed in just five games in the entire month. His wrist injury may well have impact the offense, but a return soon and a strong playoff would allay fears and possibly put him in position to push for NHL employment in the fall.

As I suspected, KG is still in the running for the big job. At this point, he’s been included to the point where one imagines he would have to consider walking if excluded now. You can’t promise a man consideration, then tell him he’s out before he gets to have his interview. As of the media avail, it was obvious to me (he has a plan but isn’t going to share it) the opportunity is still in front of him. The Oilers are going to need Gretzky for the draft, it would be foolish to drop the hammer now.

What happened with the rumor? There may have been a point after Chiarelli’s firing when KG was told he would not be under consideration. Things have changed. That’s my reasoning.

This. is. big. This is what is beyond Corsi, shot differential and goal differential. Binning opposition is the single biggest advancement we’ve seen in many years, in my opinion. Congrats to a wonderful team of brilliant math men. We are lucky to have you.

After last night’s vague release, you knew it wouldn’t take long for someone to track down more information. No surgery, he’ll be ready for camp. You are safe to go about your business. Please place your tray tables up and your seat back in the full upright position. We will be departing to summer shortly. 

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298 Responses to "Sad Songs and Waltzes"

Newer Comments »
  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    Not sure why the team couldn’t have simply offered that info.

    Good stuff. He’ll be fine and ready to find that chemistry with Pirri during camp.

  2. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Thanks for props LT.

    Thanks to all the posters who helped as Beta testers.

    Have fun with the site!!

  3. OriginalPouzar says:

    Would be great to get Kailer in some game a before the year is over. Hopefully the wrist is healing and he can play on the playoffs.

    With Currie back and having a ridiculous first game back with Marody and Benson, maybe Kailer will go back to a secondary line where he can be the driver like he was before getting moved to 1RW.

  4. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Also,

    Thank to LT for this site.

    I met GMoney here and it was in these comment threads that the idea for WoodMoney and eventually puckiq was born.

    @oilfaninyyc , @frozenpools , and @dawgbone98 are/were posters here and they volunteered to help G and I make our idea a reality.

    I am the Pakled of the group, the rest of them make it go.

  5. Psyche says:

    Thanks LT. Great start to the weekend!

    I read Matty’s latest with the Sun and he was suggesting the 8th overall and Jesse P for Ehlers. To me that’s a large overpayment. I’m not sure how a journalist can suggest that based on the Oilers’ recent history of trades.

    https://edmontonsun.com/sports/hockey/nhl/edmonton-oilers/nikolaj-ehlers-would-be-a-good-fit-with-edmonton-oilers

  6. Professor Q says:

    Psyche:
    Thanks LT. Great start to the weekend!

    I read Matty’s latest with the Sun and he was suggesting the 8th overall and Jesse P for Ehlers. To me that’s a large overpayment. I’m not sure how a journalist can suggest that based on the Oilers’ recent history of trades.

    https://edmontonsun.com/sports/hockey/nhl/edmonton-oilers/nikolaj-ehlers-would-be-a-good-fit-with-edmonton-oilers

    Especially with an Expansion Draft on the horizon.

  7. dustrock says:

    Congrats to you and GMoney, very exciting.

  8. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Congrats on the launch.

  9. Lowetide says:

    Psyche:
    Thanks LT. Great start to the weekend!

    I read Matty’s latest with the Sun and he was suggesting the 8th overall and Jesse P for Ehlers. To me that’s a large overpayment. I’m not sure how a journalist can suggest that based on the Oilers’ recent history of trades.

    https://edmontonsun.com/sports/hockey/nhl/edmonton-oilers/nikolaj-ehlers-would-be-a-good-fit-with-edmonton-oilers

    I mentioned Ehlers in January and suggested Darnell Nurse as a possible piece going back.
    https://theathletic.com/769897/2019/01/17/the-oilers-way-forward-the-smartest-route-to-finding-an-impact-winger-this-summer/

  10. leadfarmer says:

    Small PCL tear. Well thats great news. That should heal up without a problem. He will be ready long before training camp

  11. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Theres a serious lack of wooden nickels with pictures of bumble bees on them.
    Give me 5 bees for a quarter you’d say

  12. JOFA says:

    The fact that Rishaug came out immediately to squash any possibility of Krueger being considered in any capacity should scare the hell out of everybody. Why on earth this pathetic organization wouldn’t consider interviewing a positive, innovative thinker is incomprehensible. They tried to get out ahead of that one immediately. Krueger wouldn’t fit the ‘culture’ here. He would be the brightest man in the room immediately. This would strike fear in the OBC.
    Bob knows fuck all about hockey ops, he’s a business man that is way out of his league and should hand in his resignation immediately . He claims to be well versed in hiring yet hired Chia without any other interviews being conducted. That sure sounds like an expert to me. Why no POHO? They want to maintain control of this shit show. Krueger would clean house like he did in South Hampton. This is exactly what this organization needs. MacT and KG will stay folks. They have done such an ‘amazing’ job on the amateur side and have no responsibility whatsoever for the rest of this organization’s failings. This organization is not only the laughing stock of the entire league, but of all professional sports. Don’t expect anything different folks. The people in charge are on it😉

  13. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    One thing that helps the wall of text is you if have the top legend move down as you scroll down the page. If you are off the top page you look at the number and have to scroll all the way back up to make sure that is the right column you are looking at

    Curious why Klef and Larsson suck against the middle toughs

  14. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Congrats WG & G

    Now to find the time to use it properly!

  15. Scungilli Slushy says:

    leadfarmer:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    One thing that helps the wall of text is you if have the top legend move down as you scroll down the page.If you are off the top page you look at the number and have to scroll all the way back up to make sure that is the right column you are looking at

    Curious why Klef and Larsson suck against the middle toughs

    I was thinking the same thing about the legend.

  16. who says:

    JOFA:
    The fact that Rishaug came out immediately to squash any possibility of Krueger being considered in any capacity should scare the hell out of everybody. Why on earth this pathetic organization wouldn’t consider interviewing a positive, innovative thinker is incomprehensible. They tried to get out ahead of that one immediately. Krueger wouldn’t fit the ‘culture’ here.He would be the brightest man in the room immediately. This would strike fear in the OBC.
    Bob knows fuck all about hockey ops, he’s a business man that is way out of his league and should hand in his resignation immediately . He claims to be well versed in hiring yet hired Chia without any other interviews being conducted. That sure sounds like an expert to me. Why no POHO? They want to maintain control of this shit show. Krueger would clean house like he did in South Hampton. This is exactly what this organization needs. MacT and KG will stay folks. They have done such an ‘amazing’ job on the amateur side and have no responsibility whatsoever for the rest of this organization’s failings. This organization is not only the laughing stock of the entire league, but of all professional sports. Don’t expect anything different folks. The people in charge are on it

    Two reasons that Krueger won’t be hired here in any capacity.
    1. He probably has no interest in coming back.
    2. He is a direct threat to Bob Nicholson. Krueger isn’t coming here to coach. That would be a step down for him. He won’t be competing with KGretzky for the GM job. His resume screams POHO, and that is Bob’s gig.

  17. leadfarmer says:

    Lowetide: I mentioned Ehlers in January and suggested Darnell Nurse as a possible piece going back.
    https://theathletic.com/769897/2019/01/17/the-oilers-way-forward-the-smartest-route-to-finding-an-impact-winger-this-summer/

    I dont think we can trade Nurse without creating a big hole in 2LD. If we did I would aim higher than Ehlers. Huberdeau probably and I would probably do it

  18. Bag of Pucks says:

    Pace really is more of a soccer term, but if you want to apply it in a hockey context, it is easy to distinguish from speed. Speed is how quick you can get from Point A to Point B particularly on the top end side. Quickness in my mind is the right descriptor for describing speed between shorter distances. So McDavid gets from blueline to blueline with speed. Koskinen moves from post to post with quickness. Lucic also has a quick left hook, but he doesn’t use it nearly enough. I digress.

    Pace is essentially a stamina term. How long can a team maintain its optimal speed throughout the shift? Coaches want to keep their teams playing at close to full speed AND quickness for the full duration of their shift. This is playing “at pace.” The heart and lungs aren’t as cool with this which is why HCs are now obsessed with maintaining short shift cycles to maximize pace.

    Chip Kelly is a good recent example of a coach, albeit from another sport, that really pushed the pace of the game to try and wear out the opposition. Cooper does a good job of this in Tampa. By my eye, the Oilers aren’t as diligent as they could be on maintaining short shifts. That could be an inevitable result of their lack of balance and over reliance on their top guys. Plus McDavid is an absolute cardio beast. Not only is he the speediest player in the game, he may be in the best shape too. What a handful for the opposition.

  19. Woogie63 says:

    Is there more than usual click bait/lazy reporting from Edmonton Media

    Dusty – KG is out of contention

    Marty – Hire KG, trade 8th and JP and Ehlers

    Jones – rehire Ralph

    Yuck, yuck

  20. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    One thing that helps the wall of text is you if have the top legend move down as you scroll down the page.If you are off the top page you look at the number and have to scroll all the way back up to make sure that is the right column you are looking at

    Curious why Klef and Larsson suck against the middle toughs

    Good point and its being added in the next update.

    Klef-Larsson -> probably the forwards they had to play with…..

  21. SwedishPoster says:

    leadfarmer:
    Small PCL tear.Well thats great news.That should heal up without a problem.He will be ready long before training camp

    Massive sigh of relief in Oil country. Shouldn’t be much of an issue going forward either. Depending on how small small actually is he could feel some instability in a few years if the scar tissue starts stretching out which sometimes require surgery but that’s usually more of an issue for soccer players and not if the tear is really minor.

  22. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    I don’t think the 1st and JP is a serious overpay for a real NHL 1LW who:

    -scores at a 1st line
    -makes everyone better (even the best players on WPG are better with him)
    -Just turned 23
    -is under contract for 6 more seasons at $6MM which is a value contract today, let alone as the cap goes to $83MM next year and then takes a big bump with US TV and expansion in 2 years.

    I bet the cap over $90MM in 21/22.

    Ehlers has a ton of value given all of this.

    A ton.

  23. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    I don’t think the 1st and JP is a serious overpay for a real NHL 1LW who:

    -scores at a 1st line
    -makes everyone better (even the best players on WPG are better with him)
    -Just turned 23
    -is under contract for 6 more seasons at $6MM which is a value contract today, let alone as the cap goes to $83MM next year and then takes a big bump with US TV and expansion in 2 years.

    I bet the cap over $90MM in 21/22.

    Ehlers has a ton of value given all of this.

    A ton.

    I dont think JP has a ton of value in the league either.
    If Jets lose in first round theres going to be some changes but thats a rebuild type of trade for them and I just dont see them taking that route.

  24. godot10 says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Pace really is more of a soccer term, but if you want to apply it in a hockey context, it is easy to distinguish from speed. Speed is how quick you can get from Point A to Point B particularly on the top end side. Quickness in my mind is the right descriptor for describing speed between shorter distances. So McDavid gets from blueline to blueline with speed. Koskinen moves from post to post with quickness. Lucic also has a quick left hook, but he doesn’t use it nearly enough. I digress.

    Pace is essentially a stamina term. How long can a team maintain its optimal speed throughout the shift? Coaches want to keep their teams playing at close to full speed AND quickness for the full duration of their shift. This is playing “at pace.” The heart and lungs aren’t as cool with this which is why HCs are now obsessed with maintaining short shift cycles to maximize pace.

    Chip Kelly is a good recent example of a coach, albeit from another sport, that really pushed the pace of the game to try and wear out the opposition. Cooper does a good job of this in Tampa. By my eye, the Oilers aren’t as diligent as they could be on maintaining short shifts. That could be an inevitable result of their lack of balance and over reliance on their top guys. Plus McDavid is an absolute cardio beast. Not only is he the speediest player in the game, he may be in the best shape too. What a handful for the opposition.

    Pace is “how long do the defensemen hold the puck before passing it to a forward, or placing it to open space for a forward”. Pace is a D retrieving the puck and having it leave the zone in one pass or placing it in an open spot beyond the blueline where your forward has a 50/50 opportunity at it.

    No pace is resetting behind the net. No pace is passing it to your D partner. No pace is ringing it around the boards. No pace is trying to jam it up the boards and out.

    Playing with pace also places more emphasis on backchecking and tracking back hard, than forechecking.

    Playing with pace is designed to emphasize rush offense, and to force the opponent to dump the in on offense. i.e. it is controlling the neutral zone on offense and defense, and denying space to the opposition in the neutral zone.

    Chiarelli, McLellan, and Hitchcock all really hate this type of hockey. They like heavy hockey. Trench warfare vs. blitzkrieg. First Gulf War vs. Second Gulf War.

    In a cap league, the physical dominance requires for heavy hockey is difficult to achieve. So one neutralizes size with pace.

    Sutter had Quick playing lights out, a generational D, and the reincarnation of Jean Beliveau, so he was able to win 40% of the series with the Hawks. St. Louis and HItch couldn’t beat the Hawks.

    Pittsburgh took it too a different level.

    Washington is a bit of the pendulum swinging back…but they have a tremendous amount of big, fast skill, and generational goal scorer. They don’t exactly play slow either.

  25. Jethro Tull says:

    Sad songs say so much.

    Chia didn’t sign Koski to the second contract, right? Right?

    This team has never figured out how to talk to the media.

  26. SwedishPoster says:

    leadfarmer: I dont think JP has a ton of value in the league either.
    If Jets lose in first round theres going to be some changes but thats a rebuild type of trade for them and I just dont see them taking that route.

    If they get rolled in the first round it’s due to a lack of toughness so Ehlers for Lucic should do it.

    Right?

    RIGHT?

  27. godot10 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Good point and its being added in the next update.

    Klef-Larsson -> probably the forwards they had to play with…..

    The middle six of the Oilers forwards sucks…that is where the Oilers lose matchups.

  28. godot10 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    I don’t think the 1st and JP is a serious overpay for a real NHL 1LW who:

    -scores at a 1st line
    -makes everyone better (even the best players on WPG are better with him)
    -Just turned 23
    -is under contract for 6 more seasons at $6MM which is a value contract today, let alone as the cap goes to $83MM next year and then takes a big bump with US TV and expansion in 2 years.

    I bet the cap over $90MM in 21/22.

    Ehlers has a ton of value given all of this.

    A ton.

    It is a first, JP, and a higher quality player which the Oilers will lose in the expansion draft.

    I’d wait to see what players fall loose from teams re-signing players as the McDavid reset affects new contracts.

    If Bobrosky and Panarin go to Florida, Hoffman might be available for a bargain price. One then has Hoffman for two years, with a cheap expansion protected forward picked at #8 arriving in two years.

  29. Bag of Pucks says:

    Awesome site WG and GMoney!

    Jam packed with useable data and the user experience is top notch. Very intuitive.

    Could’ve used this 5 days ago when I was making my playoff picks.

    Hopefully the Oilers pro scouting staff sees AND uses this!

  30. Pescador says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    I don’t think the 1st and JP is a serious overpay for a real NHL 1LW who:

    -scores at a 1st line
    -makes everyone better (even the best players on WPG are better with him)
    -Just turned 23
    -is under contract for 6 more seasons at $6MM which is a value contract today, let alone as the cap goes to $83MM next year and then takes a big bump with US TV and expansion in 2 years.

    I bet the cap over $90MM in 21/22.

    Ehlers has a ton of value given all of this.

    A ton.

    Reminds me of the ol’ saying
    one person’s massive overpayment is one person’s massive underpayment
    Man, talk about poetic.
    Congratulations on the launch of the new site!
    You’ve been talking about it for along time.
    There is nothing quite like accomplishing a personal goal

  31. Reja says:

    Bag of Pucks: Reply)

    I can’t blame them but Oilers head coaches grossly overplay Connor and Leon every game both are gassed the last 10 minutes of the third plus the other lines can’t get a rhythm going. How many times did we get the egualizer in the last half of the third and especially with the goalie pulled which was painful and pathetic. Benson and a couple of wingers that can pass and shoot should help them immensely.

  32. Bag of Pucks says:

    godot10: Pace is “how long do the defensemen hold the puck before passing it to a forward, or placing it to open space for a forward”.Pace is a D retrieving the puck and having it leave the zone in one pass or placing it in an open spot beyond the blueline where your forward has a 50/50 opportunity at it.

    No pace is resetting behind the net.No pace is passing it to your D partner.No pace is ringing it around the boards.No pace is trying to jam it up the boards and out.

    Playing with pace also places more emphasis on backchecking and tracking back hard, than forechecking.

    Playing with pace is designed to emphasize rush offense, and to force the opponent to dump the in on offense.i.e. it is controlling the neutral zone on offense and defense, and denying space to the opposition in the neutral zone.

    Chiarelli, McLellan, and Hitchcock all really hate this type of hockey.They like heavy hockey.Trench warfare vs. blitzkrieg.First Gulf War vs. Second Gulf War.

    In a cap league, the physical dominance requires for heavy hockey is difficult to achieve.So one neutralizes size with pace.

    Sutter had Quick playing lights out, a generational D, and the reincarnation of Jean Beliveau, so he was able to win 40% of the series with the Hawks.St. Louis and HItch couldn’t beat the Hawks.

    Pittsburgh took it too a different level.

    Washington is a bit of the pendulum swinging back…but they have a tremendous amount of big, fast skill, and generational goal scorer.They don’t exactly play slow either.

    Yes, it’s important to distinguish between individual players playing “at pace” and the team as a whole doing it. The golden rule in hockey is the puck moves faster than the players so system play should be optimized to maximize efficient error free puck movement to maintain maximal puck possession.

    But there is caveats to all of this. Long stretch passes are lower percentage outlets but they need to be in the mix to keep the defending team from forechecking too aggressively. And physicality disrupts things. Those CCCP teams in the 70s were probably the purest expression of a puck possession team but they struggled with Canada’s physicality on the wall and especially with Esposito in the slot. Tampa is struggling with CBJ’s physicality right now imo.

    It was interesting to me to see VGK having success last year with longer “area passes” where their Fs were essentially outracing a D to a spot.

  33. Bulging Twine says:

    “Grover taught near and far, maybe he can tackle speed and pace.”

    Brilliant

    Music, rural Saskatchewan, Sesame Street – you never know what you’re gonna get from LT but it’s usually a treat! Don’t ever change LT.

  34. leadfarmer says:

    I think of speed as an individual attribute while pace is a team attribute.
    You can have slow players that play at a fast pace

  35. Scungilli Slushy says:

    SwedishPoster: If they get rolled in the first round it’s due to a lack of toughness so Ehlers for Lucic should do it.

    Right?

    RIGHT?

    I know you’re joking, but if a bunch of teams get rolled that had expectations, owners get mad, GMs get nervous, and opportunities come up that the Oilers have never jumped on. And the Cap is going to have a fun summer causing trouble.

    The Pens have been a team that surprisingly brought in heavies again. I wouldn’t be surprised if Tampa doesn’t follow suit especially if a first round exit.

    They aren’t a smaller team overall as their D corp has size (bigger than Columbus), but are pretty short and light up front.

  36. Reja says:

    leadfarmer:
    I think of speed as an individual attribute while pace is a team attribute.
    You can have slow players that play at a fast pace

    Hard accurate fast thinking tape to tape passes increase both speed and pace.

  37. Professor Q says:

    Pace is a good, somewhat gluten-free salsa.

  38. Bulging Twine says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Thanks for props LT.

    Thanks to all the posters who helped as Beta testers.

    Have fun with the site!!

    Congratulations Woodguy and GMoney

  39. McSorley33 says:

    Just once. I want to hear someone give reasons why a team has a player on the block.

    You can disagree. You can Grind your teeth.

    It’s more than cap.

    Ask yourself why Chevy would be willing to move Ehlers.

  40. Bag of Pucks says:

    NHL playoffs, NBA playoffs, The Masters, F1 in Shanghai, MLB, EPL.

    This really is one of the best sports weekends of the year.

    Gotta get these damn chores out of the way first.

    Enjoy the games lads!

  41. Professor Q says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    NHL playoffs, NBA playoffs, The Masters, F1 in Shanghai, MLB, EPL.

    This really is one of the best sports weekends of the year.

    Gotta get these damn chores out of the way first.

    Enjoy the games lads!

    NFL draft?

  42. McSorley33 says:

    Huge kudos to Woodguy and Gmoney.

  43. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    leadfarmer:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    One thing that helps the wall of text is you if have the top legend move down as you scroll down the page.If you are off the top page you look at the number and have to scroll all the way back up to make sure that is the right column you are looking at

    +1

  44. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    godot10: It is a first, JP, and a higher quality player which the Oilers will lose in the expansion draft.

    I’d wait to see what players fall loose from teams re-signing players as the McDavid reset affects new contracts.

    If Bobrosky and Panarin go to Florida, Hoffman might be available for a bargain price.One then has Hoffman for two years, with a cheap expansion protected forward picked at #8 arriving in two years.

    I like Hoffman too.

    My guess on the price for Ehlers is 1st, JP and Jones/Bear for reasons you stated.

    I also think that’s close to the price for a re-signed Hall if he shakes loose.

  45. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Awesome site WG and GMoney!

    Jam packed with useable data and the user experience is top notch. Very intuitive.

    Could’ve used this 5 days ago when I was making my playoff picks.

    Hopefully the Oilers pro scouting staff sees AND uses this!

    Thanks BoP!

    Thanks for everyone’s well wishes.

    We appreciate it.

  46. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    who,

    POHO is Bob’s job insomuch as he assumed the mantle with Chia’s departure. He’s the interim POHO, if you will. Or, at least, he’d better be. Ralph would be an excellent option to define and implement a winning culture, top-down.

  47. geowal says:

    LT, I gather you decided against gdt for the Cibdirs games, which is fine, but could we have brief recaps the next day if you have time? Would be fun to follow if they have a deep run.

  48. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Also,

    Thank to LT for this site.

    I met GMoney here and it was in these comment threads that the idea for WoodMoney and eventually puckiq was born.

    @oilfaninyyc , @frozenpools , and @dawgbone98 are/were posters here and they volunteered to help G and I make our idea a reality.

    I am the Pakled of the group, the rest of them make it go.

    The Pakled who led the pack. Well done, all of you.

  49. McSorley33 says:

    Kucherov suspended 1 game

  50. YKOil says:

    SwedishPoster: If they get rolled in the first round it’s due to a lack of toughness so Ehlers for Lucic should do it.

    Right? RIGHT?

    Agreed!

    On a more serious note, one of the things that is always interesting about the play-offs is which teams decide to make big changes AFTER the play-offs.

    – when Anaheim/LA won back in the day that meant big players
    – if Tampa wins that means speed remains king
    – if Winnipeg wins that means speed with big
    – if Columbus wins that means trade deadline plays are back in vogue
    – if Vegas wins that means it’s worth it to trade for the Mark Stone types

    etc. Some teams (owner, GM’s, etc) are susceptible to suggestible swings like that and it impacts the league in many ways.

    My hope, someone watches all the hitting going on and ascribes a little more value to Lucic. In St. Louis Maroon is playing well against Winnipeg and he isn’t the fastest, most skilled guy in the world. The Winnipeg/St. Louis series is adding value to Kassian every day imo.

  51. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Huberdeau has a career points rate a little higher than Ehlers (.77 vs .67 PPG), but at essentially three years older is at his peak, Ehlers is likely entering his.

    Same cap hit, 2 more years control for Ehlers with no current movement clause.

    It would depend on price of course, and Ehlers does seem to miss more games, but I’d lean to Ehlers.

  52. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bruce McCurdy: The Pakled who led the pack.Well done, all of you.

    Love you too Brucey!!

    Hehe

  53. YKOil says:

    leadfarmer:
    I think of speed as an individual attribute while pace is a team attribute.
    You can have slow players that play at a fast pace

    Agree with this but will modify to taste.

    On the part of the player:

    Speed is a physical attribute while pace is mental attribute.

    Pace is reflected in decision making – making the needed pass quickly rather than holding on to it for that extra second, jumping on a loose puck quickly rather than continue to watch the play develop, etc. You can have slow players that play at a fast pace

    On the part of the team

    Speed can be a categorical attribute of a team – i.e. lots of fast players on that team

    Pace can also be a systems attribute – how the coach directs their team. Therefore a team can play at ‘pace’ in three ways
    – by virtue of the individuals involved
    – by virtue of the systems played
    – by virtue of both the players and the systems involved

  54. YKOil says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    Huberdeau has a career points rate a little higher than Ehlers (.77 vs .67 PPG), but at essentially three years older is at his peak, Ehlers is likely entering his.

    Same cap hit, 2 more years control for Ehlers with no current movement clause. It would depend on price of course, and Ehlers does seem to miss more games, but I’d lean to Ehlers.

    Like both players. Lean to Huberdeau simply because I think he would cost less in term of assets. Just the 8th would get him imo.

  55. Cassandra says:

    5v5 scoring rates the last three years:

    Huberdeau 2.19
    Ehlers 2.13
    Hoffman 1.62

    One of these players is not like the others.

    Of these three, Ehlers is far and away the best choice. It isn’t close.

  56. YKOil says:

    Just visiting PuckIQ now

    Amazing work. Congratulations to all. And many thanks as well.

  57. YKOil says:

    Cassandra:
    5v5 scoring rates the last three years:

    Huberdeau 2.19
    Ehlers 2.13
    Hoffman 1.62

    One of these players is not like the others.

    Where I am fine with Hoffman
    —– will cost less in terms of assets and we DO need better players

    Where I am not fine with Hoffman vs. Ehlers/Huberdeau
    —– will want more than $6 million/yr right soon and isn’t as good a player

    Will NOT give up assets of a higher value for Hoffman (the 8th is higher value). If a 1st rounder maybe I only look at a 2021 1st, etc.

  58. Georgexs says:

    What’s BriseBois going to do if they lose in the first round? He signed Cooper to an extension before the playoffs started.

    How about Cheveldayoff? A first round exit will be the end for Maurice. Maybe Brossoit rescues them. Wouldn’t that be rich?

    If PIT exits, they’ll be thinking about their future too.

    We lose in the regular season. We have our problems.

    But teams that lose in the playoffs have their problems too.

    However things play out, some playoff teams will be judging their players and coaches harshly.

    A lot of “successful” GM’s will be under pressure from their media and their fans and their owners. They’re not going to think straight.

    The Oilers should attempt to take advantage of these situations.

    That would be a step toward maturing as an organization.

  59. russ99 says:

    godot10,

    Yet all these things are viable hockey plays to retain possession in the defensive zone, rather than give the puck up under pressure. Keeping the puck is preferable to losing it.

    Winning teams use fast and slow breakouts, winning teams use both the cycle and the rush.

  60. Lowetide says:

    leadfarmer: I dont think we can trade Nurse without creating a big hole in 2LD.If we did I would aim higher than Ehlers.Huberdeau probably and I would probably do it

    That’s fair. The two options to replace Nurse are Sekera (injured and aging) and Caleb Jones (not yet ready).

  61. Lowetide says:

    Bruce McCurdy: The Pakled who led the pack.Well done, all of you.

    That’s just so good.

  62. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Georgexs:
    What’s BriseBois going to do if they lose in the first round? He signed Cooper to an extension before the playoffs started.

    How about Cheveldayoff? A first round exit will be the end for Maurice. Maybe Brossoit rescues them. Wouldn’t that be rich?

    If PIT exits, they’ll be thinking about their future too.

    We lose in the regular season. We have our problems.

    But teams that lose in the playoffs have their problems too.

    However things play out, some playoff teams will be judging their players and coaches harshly.

    A lot of “successful” GM’s will be under pressure from their media and their fans and their owners. They’re not going to think straight.

    The Oilers should attempt to take advantage of these situations.

    That would be a step toward maturing as an organization.

    MacT once spoke of the “eight pissed off GMs” after the first round as being worthy trade negotiators

  63. Lowetide says:

    geowal:
    LT, I gather you decided against gdt for the Cibdirs games, which is fine, but could we have brief recaps the next day if you have time? Would be fun to follow if they have a deep run.

    I plan on doing them for the playoff games.

  64. Georgexs says:

    Darnell Nurse played 23:49 and scored 0.5 PPG.

    Nikolai Ehlers played 15:46 and scored 0.6 PPG.

    Nurse is the kind of player that well managed teams don’t trade. They keep players like Nurse. They build around players like Nurse. Because they know a defenseman who plays those kind of minutes (and brings offense) is very hard to find. And they know that, at 24, he’s only going to get better.

    They definitely don’t trade Nurse straight up for players like Ehlers.

  65. Oilman99 says:

    McSorley33:
    Kucherov suspended 1 game

    That could be the final nail in TBay’s coffin. Sure didn’t think that was that bad of a hit to warrant a suspension.

  66. YKOil says:

    Lots of shots being blocked these play-offs… go value of Russell go!

  67. Melman says:

    godot10,

    Looch, JP a first and Jones?

  68. Alpine says:

    Huberdeau is a favourite winger target of mine but I have to imagine this is the one summer where he will cost the most. He just had a 90 point season.

    Maybe circle back on him in a year. By then, you might know which defensemen you can trade and if the first rounder will be higher or lower.

  69. Melman says:

    Oilman99,

    He was on his knees well before the hit and it was a dangerous play – I don’t mind the 1 game for it. Could have been a serious injury and that it wasn’t shouldn’t absolve the play. IMO it was t a hockey play, it was trying to drill a guy who was vulnerable because NK was pissed about the score

  70. YKOil says:

    I seem to be on a lot today… thinking about fixes for next year’s roster and needed to bitch about Chiarelli

    Beyond all the big moves he screwed up… how much further ahead would we be if he had just:

    – traded Strome for Neidereitter (was Rask but lets say Strome and a 4th)
    – picked up Jensen from Detroit (Detroit got Bowey and a 2nd so lets say Benning and a 3rd)

    Nothing huge. Nothing crazy. Just solid GM work. Couple of mid-range deals. Hole on the 1st/2nd line RW filled and Jensen > Benning so 2RHD filled (easier to fill 3rd RHD).

    F*(k. This isn’t THAT hard.

  71. Oilman99 says:

    Bruce McCurdy: MacT once spoke of the “eight pissed off GMs” after the first round as being worthy trade negotiators

    Get them while they’re hot,maybe they will make a deal they will later regret, there’s always hope we can finally come out on the top end of a trade.

  72. YKOil says:

    Georgexs:
    Darnell Nurse played 23:49 and scored 0.5 PPG.

    Nikolai Ehlers played 15:46 and scored 0.6 PPG.

    Nurse is the kind of player that well managed teams don’t trade. They keep players like Nurse. They build around players like Nurse. Because they know a defenseman who plays those kind of minutes (and brings offense) is very hard to find. And they know that, at 24, he’s only going to get better.

    They definitely don’t trade Nurse straight up for players like Ehlers.

    Only question on Nurse is cost. I see him at $5.5 million /yr and can play with that number a bit.

    Not so sure I want him at $7 million+

  73. Reja says:

    Professor Q: NFL draft?

    Updates on Connor’s injury.

  74. Scungilli Slushy says:

    YKOil:
    I seem to be on a lot today… thinking about fixes for next year’s roster and needed to bitch about Chiarelli

    Beyond all the big moves he screwed up… how much further ahead would we be if he had just:

    – traded Strome for Neidereitter (was Rask but lets say Strome and a 4th)
    – picked up Jensen from Detroit (Detroit got Bowey and a 2nd so lets say Benning and a 3rd)

    Nothing huge.Nothing crazy.Just solid GM work.Couple of mid-range deals.Hole on the 1st/2nd line RW filled and Jensen > Benning so 2RHD filled (easier to fill 3rd RHD).

    F*(k.This isn’t THAT hard.

    It’s hard for teams that value the wrong things. Or overreact to trends and hype, and get man crushes. Ughh.

  75. Oilman99 says:

    Melman:
    Oilman99,

    He was on his knees well before the hit and it was a dangerous play – I don’t mind the 1 game for it.Could have been a serious injury and that it wasn’t shouldn’t absolve the play. IMO it was t a hockey play, it was trying to drill a guy who was vulnerable because NK was pissed about the score

    I just don’t think the force of impact was that great,even though it was a dumb move.

  76. Melman says:

    Jets get swept, PC hired to replace Chevy and then JP, Looch and Manning for Laine. Dare to dream….Seriously tho, could you imagine the smile on GM’s faces when their phones rang and the secretary said “I have Peter Chiarelli on line 1”. It’s pretty funny (for everyone else).

    Apologies for beating a dead horse, just enjoying a lazy Saturday waiting for the pucks to start dropping

  77. YKOil says:

    Hoffman

    Would cost more than what Florida paid (2019 2nd round pick, 2018 4th round pick (via Vegas) and 2018 5th round pick) but maybe not a lot more.

    I think it doesn’t have to involve a 1st at all and would start with JP (if I wanted to trade JP).

    Maybe even just JP a 3rd and something else.

  78. Westchester Oil says:

    Oilman99: That could be the final nail in TBay’s coffin. Sure didn’t think that was that bad of a hit to warrant a suspension.

    IMHO, it was a bad hit. The Columbus player had already started to fall and was in a vulnerable position against the boards.

  79. Scungilli Slushy says:

    As to pace and speed, pace is very strongly influenced by the system, player ability and how long the team has been playing together. Better players make decisions faster. It takes time to get all the ducks in a row.

    Speed to me has two elements, straight line and first steps. Lucic is fast, just not in tight quarters. Nuge isn’t fast per se at top speed, but has exceptional edges and good first steps, making him quick in tight.

    The Oilers have a bunch of players with lagging first steps, or acceleration / explosiveness. I think it’s a big hurdle for players especially now. There are a few like Drai that get past it, but not many that are top players. They are usually bigger high IQ puck control types.

    Hertl for example, he is quite similar to Drai in style.

    Smaller players that lack first steps have a real challenge. There are some like Eberle and Pavelski, but few IMO that are top level.

  80. Melman says:

    Oilman99,

    Yeah, I hear you – it was borderline. I’m just in favour of taking those plays out of the game (don’t mind hitting big or fighting).

    It’ll be interesting to see how TB rallies around that. Do they clamp down and try and win a low scoring game 3? Going into the playoffs I kinda thought CBJ was an enigma team you didn’t want to face because if they play to their skill they’re pretty loaded. But since they were playing TB I figured that wouldn’t really matter as it’d be 6 max with the Bolts winning. Torts is pushing the right buttons the old cagey vet

  81. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Lowetide: That’s fair. The two options to replace Nurse are Sekera (injured and aging) and Caleb Jones (not yet ready).

    Darnell Nurse:

    — just turned 24
    — has not yet reached his 300 GP
    — has “Oilers Lifer” stencilled on his ass, but is too smart to get it inked just yet
    — is big, fast, tough, mean & has his teammates’ backs
    — just led the Oilers in TOi with nearly 2000 minutes
    — led the defence in GP, G, A, P, & PiM
    — first Oiler D in a decade to reach 40 points
    — ranked top 30 in NHL D in G & P, & top 20 in EVP
    — finished second on the D behind the usual suspect in hits, & second behind the other usual suspect in blocked shots. Was first in takeaways, also giveaways. Also led the D in shots on goal.
    — broke in same year as McDavid & is pals with the core group
    — was the FIFTH Highest cap hit on the D, is locked in for another year with RFA rights thereafter
    — played with a suboptimal partner
    — is a very proactive player who is fun to watch

    Is he the next CFP? No. Is he the closest thing we’ve had to CFP since the original CFP? I’d argue we’re still finding out.

    I understand the frustration with the mistakes of a still-developing player, but am VERY reluctant to trade this player at this time unless the return is off the charts.

  82. YKOil says:

    Melman:
    Seriously tho, could you imagine the smile on GM’s faces when their phones rang and the secretary said “I have Peter Chiarelli on line 1”.It’s pretty funny (for everyone else).

    Apologies for beating a dead horse, just enjoying a lazy Saturday waiting for the pucks to start dropping

    From the earliest days I said PC’s biggest issue is that:

    – when he really wanted something, or felt he HAD to do something he would just go out and do it almost regardless of cost; and
    – other GM’s knew this

    So here we are.

  83. Bryan says:

    Still not sure why people are in such a rush to trade JP. He’s very young and just had double hip surgery to correct a problem that must have been seriously affecting his skating ability. Why don’t we see how a new administration deals with him and how a more innovative coach handles him. There is too much untapped potential there to throw away this quickly.

  84. Georgexs says:

    Daily Faceoff says Ehlers plays 2RW.

    Here’s Ehlers TOI in his 4 seasons in the League.

    15-16 16:06
    16-17 17:29
    17-18 16:05
    18-19 15:46

    Here’s his PPG:

    15-16 .53
    16-17 .78
    17-18 .73
    18-19 .60

    Here are his stats from last year’s playoffs:

    GP 15
    TOI/GP 15:51
    G 5
    A 2
    P 7
    PPG .47
    5v5 P/60 1.44

    Here are his stats in the first two games:

    GP 2
    TOI/GP 11:19
    G 0
    A 0
    P 0
    PPG 0
    5v5 P/60 0

    Two things to note about the above.

    Fans look at those zeros and get mad at the player when their team loses.

    Maurice is also playing Ehlers for 11:19 a game. He played him for 9:08 last game. That’s not a vote of confidence.

    He’s signed forever at $6M.

    I went and looked at WPG’s cap situation for next season.

    If WPG loses, there is going to be some buyer’s remorse on that contract.

    Ehlers is having a down year in what might be a down year for the team.

    Maybe a good idea to offer not so much. Can we do that?

  85. Psyche says:

    I hear the arguments for Ehlers and the 1st + JP + prospect(s). I place high value in the protected 8th overall pick. I also perceive good value in JP, although I admit the market is low on him currently.

    My experience in competitive sports informs me that hockey tends to give up too soon on young players. I believe JP can develop into a quality 2nd or 3rd line winger. If the Oilers make the appropriate changes this development can happen within their organization. If not, I expect he blossoms somewhere else.

    In listening to TSN 1290 out of Winnipeg, most mornings, I haven’t noticed the perceived value in Ehlers through the conversations and interviews (which I’ve listened to). He’s a player I like, but with the Jets own upcoming cap decisions combined with a (potential) early exit from the playoffs there may be opportunity for a beneficial negotiation. It would be nice for the Oilers to leverage another organization for a change.

  86. JimmyV1965 says:

    Psyche:
    Thanks LT. Great start to the weekend!

    I read Matty’s latest with the Sun and he was suggesting the 8th overall and Jesse P for Ehlers. To me that’s a large overpayment. I’m not sure how a journalist can suggest that based on the Oilers’ recent history of trades.

    https://edmontonsun.com/sports/hockey/nhl/edmonton-oilers/nikolaj-ehlers-would-be-a-good-fit-with-edmonton-oilers

    What would be a fair trade for Ehlers? He’s 23, a former 9th overall and he’s signed for six more years at $6 mill. If I can get him for the 8OV and JP, I’m running not walking.

  87. JimmyV1965 says:

    leadfarmer: I dont think we can trade Nurse without creating a big hole in 2LD.If we did I would aim higher than Ehlers.Huberdeau probably and I would probably do it

    I would rather have Ehlers than Huberdeau. He’s 3.5 years younger, he’s signed for a year longer and his numbers in his first three seasons are much better than Huberdeau’s. Although I’m not trading Nurse in a deal for either of them.

  88. who says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    who,

    POHO is Bob’s job insomuch as he assumed the mantle with Chia’s departure.He’s the interim POHO, if you will.Or, at least, he’d better be.Ralph would be an excellent option to define and implement a winning culture, top-down.

    Yeah I didn’t phrase that right.
    I think Krueger would be a good replacement for President of OEG, which is Bob’s actual title, I think.

  89. Georgexs says:

    Bruce McCurdy: MacT once spoke of the “eight pissed off GMs” after the first round as being worthy trade negotiators

    I’ve seen comments on here about what to look for in the new GM.

    Hockey is a game played mostly on the ice and partly off the ice.

    Teams study their opponents and use tactics and strategies to beat them with the resources that they have.

    GM’s also have to study their opponents and understand their thinking, their weaknesses, and what drives their decisions. And learn to exploit them. Deftly, if possible. You don’t want to get weak GM’s fired.

    Nicholson should ask his candidates about what they think of each of the other 30 teams and their GM’s. You have to know your opponents.

    But Nicholson probably won’t. Game Theory doesn’t seem to be his thing.

  90. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer: I dont think we can trade Nurse without creating a big hole in 2LD.If we did I would aim higher than Ehlers.Huberdeau probably and I would probably do it

    Some thing a trade from the left side need to be made in order to “make room” for the lines of Jones and/or Lagesson.

    Others think that if we trade on of the incumbent on the left side we now have a big hole at 2LD.

    Which was is right? Both? Niether? Something in the middle?

    I don’t buy in to the “need to make room”. These kids will force their way on the team if they truly are ready and can give the team a better chance to win that the incumbents and, of course, injuries will happen and the top 3-4 call-up options will indeed play games.

    On the other hand, Sekera very well could be a solid to high end 2nd pairing d-man next year. He was fairly good this year and that was after not really playing for the better part of 2 years, with no training camp and being 5 months behind the rest of the league as far as game ready. With a normal and full summer of training plus full camp, he should be even better next year and could be close to 2016 Sekera. I’m not in favor of a Nurse signing but we do have Sekera who very well could fill that gap for the last two years of his contract as the likes of Jones establishes himself in the NHL and hopefully develops in to a top 4.

  91. JimmyV1965 says:

    McSorley33:
    Just once. I want to hear someone give reasons why a team has a player on the block.

    You can disagree. You can Grind your teeth.

    It’s more than cap.

    Ask yourself why Chevy would be willing to move Ehlers.

    That’s the rub. I really don’t see Ehlers being available. His contract alone makes it very very unlikely.

  92. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide: That’s fair. The two options to replace Nurse are Sekera (injured and aging) and Caleb Jones (not yet ready).

    If you traded Nurse then Russell would be my first choice off the current roster for 2LD.

    I’m not sure Sekera can do it anymore. He was decent to end the season, but they sheltered pretty hard.

  93. pts2pndr says:

    Lowetide: That’s fair. The two options to replace Nurse are Sekera (injured and aging) and Caleb Jones (not yet ready).

    Would it be logical to wait until after this years draft to fill holes in the roster. Waiting could limit selection but I believe result in better value just as the best value for UFA’s is later rather than early. It would also allow us to use next years draft choices as assets.

  94. Munny says:

    If the Jets bow out quickly, would you be interested in Paul Maurice?

  95. JimmyV1965 says:

    Kassian could have real trade value in the offseason. He’s a modern enforcer. Fast, decent skills and upside to pot 15 goals. He’s really a great fit for a team that wants to win the Cup, but gets bounced in the first round because they were outmuscled.

  96. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    I don’t think the 1st and JP is a serious overpay for a real NHL 1LW who:

    -scores at a 1st line
    -makes everyone better (even the best players on WPG are better with him)
    -Just turned 23
    -is under contract for 6 more seasons at $6MM which is a value contract today, let alone as the cap goes to $83MM next year and then takes a big bump with US TV and expansion in 2 years.

    I bet the cap over $90MM in 21/22.

    Ehlers has a ton of value given all of this.

    A ton.

    I’m very weary of trading Nurse – a drafted and development top 6 d-man, just about to enter his prime, who is a sublime skater and tireless worker who, while having his faults, has improved year after year and is still improving. Not to mention the value contract he is on for one more year and the unkonwn of how much better he could be if he had a true 2RD partner.

    On the other hand, not necessarily Nurse, however, Ehlers is the type of player that I could be OK giving up real assets for (top propsects/1st round pick, incumbent core) – young, signed for term and a plus player. He’s not the 27 year old, UFA in two years type player who would need a massive contract shortly.

    Expansion draft implications is a major factor and I’m still thinking that I’d like to bet on the likes of Pirri, Carr, etc. or maybe shoot for a Panik level player if we want to open up the wallet.

    This will partially depend on how much cap can be opened up but, if its futures for Ehlers and material cap is required, I won’t be OK paying with too much value/skill to dispose of Lucic or giving away Sekera in the name of cap space.

    This type of acquisition could work but it would need to be made very carefully in conjunction with related transactions.

  97. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Not exactly an ideal situation.

    I vote we keep Darnell.

    Don’t really have to make a decision on him till next summer and by then the picture on D should be clearer. Should be…

  98. YKOil says:

    Georgexs:
    –snip–
    Maurice is also playing Ehlers for 11:19 a game. He played him for 9:08 last game. That’s not a vote of confidence.

    He’s signed forever at $6M. I went and looked at WPG’s cap situation for next season. If WPG loses, there is going to be some buyer’s remorse on that contract.

    Ehlers is having a down year in what might be a down year for the team. Maybe a good idea to offer not so much. Can we do that?

    I see five obvious opportunities right off the top:

    – Winnipeg and it’s Cap
    – Columbus and possible player flight
    – Florida and if they add Bobrovsky/Panarin
    – Ottawa and Cap floor combined with Melnyk cheapness
    – Minnesota, Carolina and Buffalo trying to get better by changing up their teams

    Against that we have a savvy team in New Jersey that have few internal issues and would be quite happy to accelerate their rebuild with a player like Ehlers (for example) and have more assets than we do.

    Would normally add the Islanders to that list but they have a fair number of players to (Lehner, Nelson, Lee, Beauvillier and then Barzal in 2020) to deal with internally, not including Eberle, so they may or may not be active. Bit of a wildcard really. Lou be awesome… and intimidating.

  99. Munny says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’m very weary of trading Nurse

    Well geez, how many times have you traded him?

    🙂

  100. Munny says:

    JimmyV1965,

    Isn’t he also a player you want to hang onto?

  101. Cassandra says:

    YKOil:
    I seem to be on a lot today… thinking about fixes for next year’s roster and needed to bitch about Chiarelli

    Beyond all the big moves he screwed up… how much further ahead would we be if he had just:

    – traded Strome for Neidereitter (was Rask but lets say Strome and a 4th)
    – picked up Jensen from Detroit (Detroit got Bowey and a 2nd so lets say Benning and a 3rd)

    Nothing huge.Nothing crazy.Just solid GM work.Couple of mid-range deals.Hole on the 1st/2nd line RW filled and Jensen > Benning so 2RHD filled (easier to fill 3rd RHD).

    F*(k.This isn’t THAT hard.

    This can’t be repeated enough. It isn’t that hard. Don’t do the obviously stupid moves (everything Chiarelli ever did) and have the patience to wait for gifts from heaven (Niederreiter for a terrible contract).

    But as someone said above this is hard to do when you value the wrong things.

  102. who says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Darnell Nurse:

    — just turned 24
    — has not yet reached his 300 GP
    — has “Oilers Lifer” stencilled on his ass, but is too smart to get it inked just yet
    — is big, fast, tough, mean & has his teammates’ backs
    — just led the Oilers in TOi with nearly 2000 minutes
    — led the defence in GP, G, A, P, & PiM
    — first Oiler D in a decade to reach 40 points
    — ranked top 30 in NHL D in G & P, & top 20 in EVP
    — finished second on the D behind the usual suspect in hits, & second behind the other usual suspect in blocked shots. Was first in takeaways, also giveaways. Also led the D in shots on goal.
    — broke in same year as McDavid & is pals with the core group
    — was the FIFTH Highest cap hit on the D, is locked in for another year with RFA rights thereafter
    — played with a suboptimal partner
    — is a very proactive player who is fun to watch

    Is he the next CFP? No. Is he the closest thing we’ve had to CFP since the original CFP? I’d argue we’re still finding out.

    I understand the frustration with the mistakes of a still-developing player, but am VERY reluctant to trade this player at this time unless the return is off the charts.

    If you had to trade 1 of Nurse or Klefbom, who would you trade? Cause I think that’s what it may come down to. If the Oilers are trying to make a significant move via trade.
    Lefty d is our greatest area of strength and those 2 guys clearly have the most trade value.
    I would prefer to move Sekera for a much smaller asset and cap space. I would then use that cap space to sign Tyler Myers or a scoring winger.

  103. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georgexs,

    He scores at a top line rate with most top 6 players on WPG.

    Would love to get him cheaper.

    Here’s his 5v5 TOI with every Jet forward over 100 minutes from the past 3 years:

    With TOI With
    Patrik Laine 1338.5
    Mark Scheifele 1157.9
    Bryan Little 1141.5
    Blake Wheeler 960.7
    Mathieu Perreault 398.4
    Paul Stastny 230.3
    Kyle Connor 200.4
    Kevin Hayes 184.1
    Andrew Copp 116.4
    Drew Stafford 111.0
    Adam Lowry 102.4

    Here’s his 5v5 pts/60 with those players:
    With Total Points/60
    Patrik Laine 2.29
    Mark Scheifele 2.44
    Bryan Little 1.52
    Blake Wheeler 2.12
    Mathieu Perreault 1.51
    Paul Stastny 2.87
    Kyle Connor 2.99
    Kevin Hayes 2.28
    Andrew Copp 3.61
    Drew Stafford 1.08
    Adam Lowry 3.52

    If we look at this year only, it seem that the same pattern emerges:

    TOI with forwards 18/19
    With TOI With
    Mark Scheifele 432.5
    Blake Wheeler 398.9
    Bryan Little 185.6
    Kevin Hayes 184.1
    Patrik Laine 175.1
    Kyle Connor 159.7
    Mathieu Perreault 77.6

    Pts/60 with forwards 18/19
    With Total Points/60
    Mark Scheifele 2.08
    Blake Wheeler 2.26
    Bryan Little 1.29
    Kevin Hayes 2.28
    Patrik Laine 0.69
    Kyle Connor 3.01
    Mathieu Perreault 1.55

    So he’s been producing at a 1st line rate with those players.

    The only bogey this year is Laine, and Laine had his well publicized goal drought.

    There are some WPG fans who think they should keep Ehlers at $6MM and trade Laine for a ransom if he wants $10MM

    Big thing for WPG is their lack of a decent 2C.

  104. Georgexs says:

    A couple of days ago, I posted some numbers on the performance of forwards who scored at a below 0.6 PPG rate (top 6) in their career and who switch teams in the off season.

    The moral of that story was buy low because you’re likely to be disappointed and it’s better to be a little disappointed than a lot disappointed. Even if you target players who are close to top-6 rates, i.e., between 0.5 and 0.6 PPG, the odds are about 2 to 1 that they’ll fall short of their career scoring mark.

    Today, I want to look at forwards who switch teams who HAVE scored at a top-6 rate up to that point.

    (The data I’m using is from 13-14 to 18-19, six years and six off seasons.)

    How many forwards total in this group?

    84 forwards with a career rate of 0.6 PPG or higher have switched teams in the off season in the past 6 years.

    How many scored at a top 6 rate in their first season with their new club?

    41, less than 50%.

    Is age a factor?

    Yes. 24 of 32 forwards who were 30 or younger scored at top-6. But only 17 of 52 of forwards over 30 managed to do the same.

    So, find younger forwards and we’re relatively safe?

    Not quite. Of the 32 younger forwards, only 11 managed to do better than their career mark in their first year with the new team. So, again, the odds are 2 to 1 that young top-6 forwards who switch teams will under perform their career rates. Of the older players, only 5 out of 52 did better than their career mark.

    What that means is that when you’re trading for or signing top-6 forwards in the off season, the odds are against you finding a player who will perform better with your team than he has up to that point in his career.

    This a very, very important thing to keep in mind.

    Have the Oilers acquired a top-6 forward in the past six seasons who scored at top-6 rates for them in their first season?

    Yes, Milan Lucic. He had a career rate of 0.61 when he came to us and he scored 0.61 in his first season.

    This is also a very, very important thing to keep in mind.

    The general principle, something we’ve struggled with as a team and as a fanbase, is that teams don’t get better with other team’s forwards. They get better with their own forwards.

    How about VGK?

    VGK picked up a bunch of non top-6 forwards in the expansion draft, gave them opportunities they never had with their original teams, treated them like their own homegrown talent (which they were in a way because these players knew that the team, given a multitude of choices, chose them), placed confidence in them that others didn’t, built a system to maximize their respective talents, and went all the way to the Finals last season.

  105. Munny says:

    Georgexs: Not quite. Of the 32 younger forwards, only 11 managed to do better than their career mark in their first year with the new team. So, again, the odds are 2 to 1 that young top-6 forwards who switch teams will under perform their career rates. Of the older players, only 5 out of 52 did better than their career mark.

    Not sure I would call a player who is 29 and a 1/2 a young player.

    What were the ages of the 11 who out-scored their history?

  106. YKOil says:

    I don’t care if he is 32 at the start of next year, if the price is good and I can’t make a game changing move then I pick up Zuccarello.

    3 year deal with the 3rd year built for trade (declining balance contract with a signing bonus that 3rd year). Quite comfortable with a NMC in year 1 and limited NTC’s in years 2 (list of 15 teams no-trade) and 3 (list of 10 teams no-trade). Dollars would be the issue.

    Also, referring to a post made earlier, add Dallas to New Jersey as a team to watch out for this off-season. They have some roster holes to fill after this year but also have the space and assets to do some things.

  107. YKOil says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Georgexs,
    The only bogey this year is Laine, and Laine had his well publicized goal drought. There are some WPG fans who think they should keep Ehlers at $6MM and trade Laine for a ransom if he wants $10MM

    Big thing for WPG is their lack of a decent 2C.

    Best hope for Winnipeg’s Cap issues is that Laine or Connor takes a workable bridge, if not it could get ugly there.

    Offer sheeting Trouba is something I would really consider. Also like Myers.

  108. godot10 says:

    who: If you had to trade 1 of Nurse or Klefbom, who would you trade? Cause I think that’s what it may come down to.If the Oilers are trying to make a significant move via trade.
    Lefty d is our greatest area of strength and those 2 guys clearly have the most trade value.
    I would prefer to move Sekera for a much smaller asset and cap space. I would then use that cap space to sign Tyler Myers or a scoring winger.

    Neither Klefbom, nor Nurse. The Oilers could hardly win a game without Klefbom in the lineup, or with an injured Klefbom, for the last four years. Fortunately, we haven’t had to really test what happens when Nurse is hurt.

    These are two defensemen entering their prime. And Klefbom’s contract is dreamy.

    I wonder if Buffalo would be willing to do a Larsson for Ristolainen deal.

  109. JimmyV1965 says:

    Georgexs:
    Darnell Nurse played 23:49 and scored 0.5 PPG.

    Nikolai Ehlers played 15:46 and scored 0.6 PPG.

    Nurse is the kind of player that well managed teams don’t trade. They keep players like Nurse. They build around players like Nurse. Because they know a defenseman who plays those kind of minutes (and brings offense) is very hard to find. And they know that, at 24, he’s only going to get better.

    They definitely don’t trade Nurse straight up for players like Ehlers.

    Well said. Trading Nurse would be a monumental mistake. We traded Petry when he was a year older and we all lament the player he has become. If we trade Nurse, we will be cursing this team for another decade.

  110. YKOil says:

    Man, I hope Washington just pushes Carolina around.

    Makes a straight up Lucic for Darling trade possible (knowing full well we would still retain as much as $3 million a year in salary).

  111. Munny says:

    godot10: I wonder if Buffalo would be willing to do a Larsson for Ristolainen deal.

    Buffalo already has a Larsson, local-ish boy Bogo. No way they trade all that offense away for another Bogo. If anything, Bogosian is the guy they would want to trade.

  112. Oilpower says:

    If Tampa gets dumped in the first round I wonder if they would be interested in kassian. If so I would work at trying to get Anthony Cirelli. Could center our 3rd line and going into a contract year so Tampa might have trouble retaining him after next season.

  113. who says:

    godot10: Neither Klefbom, nor Nurse.The Oilers could hardly win a game without Klefbom in the lineup, or with an injured Klefbom, for the last four years. Fortunately, we haven’t had to really test what happens when Nurse is hurt.

    These are two defensemen entering their prime.And Klefbom’s contract is dreamy.

    I wonder if Buffalo would be willing to do a Larsson for Ristolainen deal.

    Seems like a sideways deal to me.
    Offensive righty dman for defensive righty dman.
    If a guy like Risto is the target, why not dump Sekera and sign Myers?

  114. Munny says:

    who: If a guy like Risto is the target, why not dump Sekera and sign Myers?

    This is the smarter play… then you run Rusty at 3LD and injury coverage for a year while Caleb finds his sea legs.

  115. JimmyV1965 says:

    Munny:
    JimmyV1965,

    Isn’t he also a player you want to hang onto?

    Not sure who you are referring to. If it’s JP, I absolutely want to keep him. There is still tremendous upside there. I’m only dealing him if it’s a package for a very good player. I look at Sam Bennet down the road and see a similar situation. Although Bennett isn’t a top six player right now, he’s very useful, makes solid contributions and still has upside. The wild card is the relationship between JP and mngt. Is it broken beyond repair?

  116. YKOil says:

    who: Seems like a sideways deal to me.
    Offensive righty dman for defensive righty dman.
    If a guy like Risto is the target, why not dump Sekera and sign Myers?

    Myers isn’t a true 1RHD but he is a solid 2RHD imo; takes a tonne of pressure off of Larsson.

    Picking up Myers allow a look at dealing both Sekera and Russell. Would keep Sekera over Russell but a solid RHD is the requirement for that to happen.

  117. JimmyV1965 says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Darnell Nurse:

    — just turned 24
    — has not yet reached his 300 GP
    — has “Oilers Lifer” stencilled on his ass, but is too smart to get it inked just yet
    — is big, fast, tough, mean & has his teammates’ backs
    — just led the Oilers in TOi with nearly 2000 minutes
    — led the defence in GP, G, A, P, & PiM
    — first Oiler D in a decade to reach 40 points
    — ranked top 30 in NHL D in G & P, & top 20 in EVP
    — finished second on the D behind the usual suspect in hits, & second behind the other usual suspect in blocked shots. Was first in takeaways, also giveaways. Also led the D in shots on goal.
    — broke in same year as McDavid & is pals with the core group
    — was the FIFTH Highest cap hit on the D, is locked in for another year with RFA rights thereafter
    — played with a suboptimal partner
    — is a very proactive player who is fun to watch

    Is he the next CFP? No. Is he the closest thing we’ve had to CFP since the original CFP? I’d argue we’re still finding out.

    I understand the frustration with the mistakes of a still-developing player, but am VERY reluctant to trade this player at this time unless the return is off the charts.

    Excellent, excellent post.

  118. who says:

    Munny: This is the smarter play… then you run Rusty at 3LD and injury coverage for a year while Caleb finds his sea legs.

    Exactly. That’s what I’m thinking anyways.
    We still haven’t solved the scoring winger issue though.

  119. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Munny:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Not exactly an ideal situation.

    I vote we keep Darnell.

    Don’t really have to make a decision on him till next summer and by then the picture on D should be clearer.Should be…

    I don’t want to trade Nurse.

    I was opining that if he was traded that Russell was the best option on the roster for 2LD

  120. JimmyV1965 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Georgexs,

    He scores at a top line rate with most top 6 players on WPG.

    Would love to get him cheaper.

    Here’s his 5v5 TOI with every Jet forward over 100 minutes from the past 3 years:

    WithTOI With
    Patrik Laine1338.5
    Mark Scheifele1157.9
    Bryan Little1141.5
    Blake Wheeler960.7
    Mathieu Perreault398.4
    Paul Stastny230.3
    Kyle Connor200.4
    Kevin Hayes184.1
    Andrew Copp116.4
    Drew Stafford111.0
    Adam Lowry102.4

    Here’s his 5v5 pts/60 with those players:
    WithTotal Points/60
    Patrik Laine2.29
    Mark Scheifele2.44
    Bryan Little1.52
    Blake Wheeler2.12
    Mathieu Perreault1.51
    Paul Stastny2.87
    Kyle Connor2.99
    Kevin Hayes2.28
    Andrew Copp3.61
    Drew Stafford1.08
    Adam Lowry3.52

    If we look at this year only, it seem that the same pattern emerges:

    TOI with forwards 18/19
    WithTOI With
    Mark Scheifele432.5
    Blake Wheeler398.9
    Bryan Little185.6
    Kevin Hayes184.1
    Patrik Laine175.1
    Kyle Connor159.7
    Mathieu Perreault77.6

    Pts/60 with forwards 18/19
    WithTotal Points/60
    Mark Scheifele2.08
    Blake Wheeler2.26
    Bryan Little1.29
    Kevin Hayes2.28
    Patrik Laine0.69
    Kyle Connor3.01
    Mathieu Perreault1.55

    So he’s been producing at a 1st line rate with those players.

    The only bogey this year is Laine, and Laine had his well publicized goal drought.

    There are some WPG fans who think they should keep Ehlers at $6MM and trade Laine for a ransom if he wants $10MM

    Big thing for WPG is their lack of a decent 2C.

    I would rather have Ehlers at $6 than Laine at $10. That will be a really challenging contract to negotiate. Suspect they go for a bridge

  121. JimmyV1965 says:

    Georgexs:
    A couple of days ago, I posted some numbers on the performance of forwards who scored at a below 0.6 PPG rate (top 6) in their career and who switch teams in the off season.

    The moral of that story was buy low because you’re likely to be disappointed and it’s better to be a little disappointed than a lot disappointed. Even if you target players who are close to top-6 rates, i.e., between 0.5 and 0.6 PPG, the odds are about 2 to 1 that they’ll fall short of their career scoring mark.

    Today, I want to look at forwards who switch teams who HAVE scored at a top-6 rate up to that point.

    (The data I’m using is from 13-14 to 18-19, six years and six off seasons.)

    How many forwards total in this group?

    84 forwards with a career rate of 0.6 PPG or higher have switched teams in the off season in the past 6 years.

    How many scored at a top 6 rate in their first season with their new club?

    41, less than 50%.

    Is age a factor?

    Yes. 24 of 32 forwards who were 30 or younger scored at top-6. But only 17 of 52 of forwards over 30 managed to do the same.

    So, find younger forwards and we’re relatively safe?

    Not quite. Of the 32 younger forwards, only 11 managed to do better than their career mark in their first year with the new team. So, again, the odds are 2 to 1 that young top-6 forwards who switch teams will under perform their career rates. Of the older players, only 5 out of 52 did better than their career mark.

    What that means is that when you’re trading for or signing top-6 forwards in the off season, the odds are against you finding a player who will perform better with your team than he has up to that point in his career.

    This a very, very important thing to keep in mind.

    Have the Oilers acquired a top-6 forward in the past six seasons who scored at top-6 rates for them in their first season?

    Yes, Milan Lucic. He had a career rate of 0.61 when he came to us and he scored 0.61 in his first season.

    This is also a very, very important thing to keep in mind.

    The general principle, something we’ve struggled with as a team and as a fanbase, is that teams don’t get better with other team’s forwards. They get better with their own forwards.

    How about VGK?

    VGK picked up a bunch of non top-6 forwards in the expansion draft, gave them opportunities they never had with their original teams, treated them like their own homegrown talent (which they were in a way because these players knew that the team, given a multitude of choices, chose them), placed confidence in them that others didn’t, built a system to maximize their respective talents, and went all the way to the Finals last season.

    Excellent post and something we should all keep in mind, especially guys like me who want to trade the first round pick for the right deal. Do you know how these guys did in their second season? There’s often and adjustment when switching teams.

  122. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georgexs,

    PPG is a function of TOI and PP opportunity. (and of course, scoring)

    Unless you control for TOI and PPTOI comparing players using PPG is too broad to give any real conclusions.

    Once those are controlled, you control for common line mates and production therein, including PPTOI team mates. Playing 2nd PP isn’t like playing 1st PP.

    You want to find a guy who produces at a first line rate with good players but for whatever reason isn’t getting that opportunity on his current team.

  123. Munny says:

    JimmyV1965: Not sure who you are referring to.

    I was referring to the only player you referred to in the post I replied to.

  124. YKOil says:

    JimmyV1965: I would rather have Ehlers at $6 than Laine at $10. That will be a really challenging contract to negotiate. Suspect they go for a bridge

    Suspect they bridge as well, however would throw the Draisaitl numbers at them (edit to clarify: Laine and his agent) and see if they blink. Pure goal scorers are hard to find.

  125. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I don’t want to trade Nurse.

    I was opining that if he was traded that Russell was the best option on the roster for 2LD

    Yes, I understood that. It was completely clear from your original post.

    …Upon which I was annotating.

  126. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar: Some thing a trade from the left side need to be made in order to “make room” for the lines of Jones and/or Lagesson.

    Others think that if we trade on of the incumbent on the left side we now have a big hole at 2LD.

    Which was is right?Both?Niether?Something in the middle?

    I don’t buy in to the “need to make room”. These kids will force their way on the team if they truly are ready and can give the team a better chance to win that the incumbents and, of course, injuries will happen and the top 3-4 call-up options will indeed play games.

    On the other hand, Sekera very well could be a solid to high end 2nd pairing d-man next year. He was fairly good this year and that was after not really playing for the better part of 2 years, with no training camp and being 5 months behind the rest of the league as far as game ready.With a normal and full summer of training plus full camp, he should be even better next year and could be close to 2016 Sekera.I’m not in favor of a Nurse signing but we do have Sekera who very well could fill that gap for the last two years of his contract as the likes of Jones establishes himself in the NHL and hopefully develops in to a top 4.

    I dont count Sekera above 3rd pairing. Sure he may return to form or he may get injured again. I just find it too hard to pencil him in as 2LD.
    While the pipeline for d looks good I dont see a single player that is ready to be a 2nd pairing D next year.
    In other words I dont think we can trade an established D outside of Russell or Benning or sekera until at least half way through next season

  127. JimmyV1965 says:

    Munny: Buffalo already has a Larsson, local-ish boy Bogo.No way they trade all that offense away for another Bogo.If anything, Bogosian is the guy they would want to trade.

    Bogosian played 65 games this year, his most in nine years. Not sure who his comparable is, but it’s not Larsson.

  128. leadfarmer says:

    JimmyV1965: I would rather have Ehlers than Huberdeau. He’s 3.5 years younger, he’s signed for a year longer and his numbers in his first three seasons are much better than Huberdeau’s. Although I’m not trading Nurse in a deal for either of them.

    I dont think Ehlers is available.
    I think Huberdeau might be with the change in culture, Panarin coming in maybe.
    We could actually use both
    Mcdavid Drai Nuge Ehlers Huberdeau.
    Now we’re cooking with Oil

  129. RonnieB says:

    Georgexs:
    Daily Faceoff says Ehlers plays 2RW.

    Here’s Ehlers TOI in his 4 seasons in the League.

    15-16 16:06
    16-17 17:29
    17-18 16:05
    18-19 15:46

    Here’s his PPG:

    15-16 .53
    16-17 .78
    17-18 .73
    18-19 .60

    Here are his stats from last year’s playoffs:

    GP 15
    TOI/GP 15:51
    G 5
    A 2
    P 7
    PPG .47
    5v5 P/60 1.44

    Here are his stats in the first two games:

    GP 2
    TOI/GP 11:19
    G 0
    A 0
    P 0
    PPG 0
    5v5 P/60 0

    Two things to note about the above.

    Fans look at those zeros and get mad at the player when their team loses.

    Maurice is also playing Ehlers for 11:19 a game. That’s not a vote of confidence.

    He’s signed forever at $6M.

    I went and looked at WPG’s cap situation for next season.

    If WPG loses, there is going to be some buyer’s remorse on that contract.

    Ehlers is having a down year in what might be a down year for the team.

    Maybe a good idea to offer not so much. Can we do that?

    I wonder where you found those 2017/18 playoff stats. Hockey-reference.com and capfriendlly.com both show him with an Eberle-esque 0 goals in 15 games last year to go with his 0/2 this year. He also seems to be a soft player with only 138 hits in 298 career games, and is minus 41 on TK/GV in his career.

  130. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    YKOil: Myers isn’t a true 1RHD but he is a solid 2RHD imo; takes a tonne of pressure off of Larsson.

    Picking up Myers allow a look at dealing both Sekera and Russell.Would keep Sekera over Russell but a solid RHD is the requirement for that to happen.

    I have Myers as an OK 3RD and doesn’t do well in top 4 minutes for years now.

    He’s been 3RD in WPG if both Trouba (1RD) and Buf (2RD) are healthy.

  131. OriginalPouzar says:

    John Marino elected a captain for Harvard for the 2019/20 season so I guess he isn’t opting to turn pro this year. We’ll have until next Aug 15 to sign him.

    He is unheralded but has a real shot at a pro career including the NHL.

  132. JimmyV1965 says:

    YKOil: Suspect they bridge as well, however would throw the Draisaitl numbers at them (edit to clarify: Laine and his agent) and see if they blink.Pure goal scorers are hard to find.

    Laine is a riddle wrapped in an enigma. Very challenging contract for sure.

  133. OriginalPouzar says:

    Sounds like Maksimov is close to returning – maybe he goes tonight. Here is hoping.

  134. Alpine says:

    Tyler Myers is okay, but I wouldn’t pay him for the 4 or 5 years minimum that he can get in free agency.

    If you want that sort of player, I’m sure Vegas will move Colin Miller for cheap. They healthy scratched him in Game 1 vs SJ and they’re over the cap going into next season with Karlsson as an RFA.

    Miller isn’t that great but neither is Myers. The difference between them is like Cody Franson vs a rich man’s Cody Franson.

    Don’t think either is a 2RD solution but they’re both better suited to it currently than Benning.

  135. Georgexs says:

    Munny: Not sure I would call a player who is 29 and a 1/2 a young player.

    What were the ages of the 11 who out-scored their history?

    Here’s the list of forwards who were turning 30 in the year of the move and who had scored at a 0.6+ PPG rate in their career.

    I should add I filtered out players who were traded from their new team before the season was up. I assumed these players very likely didn’t find success with their new team, hence the trade. It made the work a wee bit easier so I took the short cut.

    The list is sorted in descending order of the forward’s PPG with their new team.

    Player-Team-Season-Age, PPG, PPG_h, is_top_six, is_over_perform

    John Tavares-TOR-2018-28, 1.07, .93, 1, 1

    Artemi Panarin-CBJ-2017-26, 1.01, .93, 1, 1

    Ryan O’Reilly-STL-2018-27, .94, .65, 1, 1

    Max Domi-MTL-2018-23, .88, .61, 1, 1

    Mike Hoffman-FLA-2018-29, .85, .67, 1, 1

    David Perron-STL-2018-30, .81, .61, 1, 1

    Jeff Skinner-BUF-2018-26, .77, .65, 1, 1

    Taylor Hall-NJD-2016-25, .74, .86, 1, 0

    Jordan Eberle-NYI-2017-27, .73, .75, 1, 0

    James van Riemsdyk-PHI-2018-29, .73, .65, 1, 1

    Phil Kessel-PIT-2015-28, .72, .78, 1, 0

    Alexander Radulov-MTL-2016-30, .71, .66, 1, 1

    Kyle Okposo-BUF-2016-28, .69, .70, 1, 0

    Bobby Ryan-OTT-2013-26, .69, .76, 1, 0

    Derek Stepan-ARI-2017-27, .68, .70, 1, 0

    Brandon Saad-CBJ-2015-23, .68, .61, 1, 1

    Milan Lucic-LAK-2015-27, .68, .60, 1, 1

    Thomas Vanek-MIN-2014-30, .65, .84, 1, 0

    T.J. Oshie-WSH-2015-29, .64, .70, 1, 0

    Paul Stastny-STL-2014-29, .62, .85, 1, 0

    James Neal-VGK-2017-30, .62, .71, 1, 0

    Milan Lucic-EDM-2016-28, .61, .61, 1, 0

    Loui Eriksson-BOS-2013-28, .61, .71, 1, 0

    Max Pacioretty-VGK-2018-30, .61, .72, 1, 0

    Ryan Kesler-ANA-2014-30, .58, .62, 0, 0

    Alex Galchenyuk-ARI-2018-24, .57, .61, 0, 0

    James Neal-NSH-2014-27, .55, .76, 0, 0

    Evander Kane-BUF-2015-24, .54, .61, 0, 0

    Sam Gagner-ARI-2014-25, .51, .61, 0, 0

    Derek Roy-STL-2013-30, .49, .80, 0, 0

    Derick Brassard-OTT-2016-29, .48, .61, 0, 0

    Brandon Saad-CHI-2017-25, .43, .63, 0, 0

    I can provide a link to the whole dataset if anyone is interested.

  136. JimmyV1965 says:

    leadfarmer: I dont think Ehlers is available.
    I think Huberdeau might be with the change in culture, Panarin coming in maybe.
    We could actually use both
    Mcdavid Drai Nuge Ehlers Huberdeau.
    Now we’re cooking with Oil

    Dare to dream!!!

  137. Georgexs says:

    RonnieB: I wonder where you found those 2017/18 playoff stats. Hockey-reference.com and capfriendlly.com both show him with an Eberle-esque 0 goals in 15 games last year to go with his 0/2 this year. He also seems to be a soft player with only 138 hits in 298 career games, and is minus 41 on TK/GV in his career.

    You’re right. I got them from NST, all situations. I saw the 5 and 2 but they were first and second assists, not goals and assists. My mistake.

    It should have read:

    G 0
    A 7
    P 7

    Thanks.

    And you have the right attitude here. You should talk down the player as much as possible when you’re thinking of trading for him. I don’t know about the TK/GV (I’ve never looked into it) but the 0 for 17 on goals in the playoffs will get fans MAD and create all kinds of ANGST and DOUBT!!

    Our duty here is to take advantage. If the Jets go out meekly, the opportunity will present itself. All of Cheveldayoff’s skillful team building, all the astute drafting and developing, all of the patience shown in sticking with a coach who has yet to deliver… what was it all for anyway?

  138. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Re: Myers this year:

    WPG Dmen TOI% vs Elites:
    Name CTOI%
    Josh Morrissey 45.5
    Jacob Trouba 41.2
    Dustin Byfuglien 37.6
    Nathan Beaulieu 34.6
    Ben Chiarot 31.2
    Tyler Myers 29.4
    Dmitry Kulikov 29.0
    Joe Morrow 20.8
    Sami Niku 18.4

    Relative CF% vs Elites
    Name CF%RC
    Dustin Byfuglien 4.8
    Ben Chiarot 3.0
    Jacob Trouba 0.7
    Josh Morrissey 0.5
    Sami Niku -1.4
    Nathan Beaulieu -2.1
    Tyler Myers -3.2
    Dmitry Kulikov -4.0
    Joe Morrow -4.8

    Relative DFF%
    Name DFF%RC
    Ben Chiarot 6.2
    Josh Morrissey 5.6
    Jacob Trouba 2.2
    Dustin Byfuglien 0.4
    Sami Niku -0.3
    Nathan Beaulieu -2.3
    Tyler Myers -4.1
    Dmitry Kulikov -6.1
    Joe Morrow -12.7

    GF% vs Elite
    Name GF%
    Josh Morrissey 57.7
    Jacob Trouba 50.0
    Sami Niku 50.0
    Nathan Beaulieu 50.0
    Dmitry Kulikov 50.0
    Ben Chiarot 44.8
    Tyler Myers 43.9
    Dustin Byfuglien 36.8
    Joe Morrow 30.8

    FO% vs Elite (the more faceoffs you have the more coach is putting you out there and trusting you)
    Name FO/60
    Josh Morrissey 69.8
    Jacob Trouba 66.0
    Dustin Byfuglien 62.1
    Ben Chiarot 60.0
    Nathan Beaulieu 59.7
    Dmitry Kulikov 54.6
    Tyler Myers 52.3
    Sami Niku 51.9
    Joe Morrow 51.1

    Myers has played a lot with Kulikov and he’s been bad for a while so that’s probably skewing him down a bit, but he’s 3RD, deployed like a 3RD and his results are pretty meh.

    Usually 3rd pairing Dmen look ok due to their sheltering but he doesn’t.

    Hiring him for 2RD on the Oilers is not a good idea.

    I’d rather Russell were 2RD than Myers.

  139. Rich M says:

    Georgexs:
    Daily Faceoff says Ehlers plays 2RW.

    Here’s Ehlers TOI in his 4 seasons in the League.

    15-16 16:06
    16-17 17:29
    17-18 16:05
    18-19 15:46

    Here’s his PPG:

    15-16 .53
    16-17 .78
    17-18 .73
    18-19 .60

    Here are his stats from last year’s playoffs:

    GP 15
    TOI/GP 15:51
    G 5
    A 2
    P 7
    PPG .47
    5v5 P/60 1.44

    Here are his stats in the first two games:

    GP 2
    TOI/GP 11:19
    G 0
    A 0
    P 0
    PPG 0
    5v5 P/60 0

    Two things to note about the above.

    Fans look at those zeros and get mad at the player when their team loses.

    Maurice is also playing Ehlers for 11:19 a game. He played him for 9:08 last game. That’s not a vote of confidence.

    He’s signed forever at $6M.

    I went and looked at WPG’s cap situation for next season.

    If WPG loses, there is going to be some buyer’s remorse on that contract.

    Ehlers is having a down year in what might be a down year for the team.

    Maybe a good idea to offer not so much. Can we do that?

    Really like your work here, but one thing about last nights game. Ehlers was checked into the boards early in the 2nd and his head clearly hit the glass. I believe that’s why his minutes were down because he was out for a long stretch last night.

    St. Louis system is very stifling. For the first half of the game though, Winnipeg was very effective at breaking it down, but as the game went on, that changed.

    Small sample sizes though.

  140. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Playoff scoring
    23 years old- 21gp 3g 3a 6pts – .29pts/gm
    24 years old – 4gp 0g 0a 0pts – 0pts/gm

    I bet some DET fans wanted to trade Datsyuk.

    He was soft too.

  141. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Florida has 20 Million in cap space.
    And they have vowed to spend to the cap next season.
    Even if they give Bobrovsky and Panarin 10 Million each.

    If they subtract Huberdeau or Hoffman, what are they spending their money on to get back up to the cap?

  142. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Congrats to you and your pals on the new site.
    I look forward to checking it out.

  143. YKOil says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I have Myers as an OK 3RD and doesn’t do well in top 4 minutes for years now.

    He’s been 3RD in WPG if both Trouba (1RD) and Buf (2RD) are healthy.

    To be fair – Larsson would be behind Trouba and Buf. Morrissey is a hell of a player so congrats to whoever gets to play with him; Morrissey over Kulikov.

    Cannot get behind Russell >> Myers (though overall cost could change that opinion). Would take Myers at $5m over Russell at $4m for instance. Will let someone else pay Myers $6m+ though.

    Still like the idea of offersheeting Trouba.

  144. OriginalPouzar says:

    I don’t really care who hangs out in the box with Katz or is drinking wine wherever. I don’t care how much money Paul Coffey makes, its meaningless to me (and given Coffey has worked with the young D in Bakersfield and the three prospects are all having plus years (Bear, now that he’s health), maybe he’s full value).

    I care about how the new GM (and POHO if there is one) proceed moving forward and the moves they make to improve the team gonig forward and putting the team in a position to succeed.

  145. Georgexs says:

    JimmyV1965: Excellent post and something we should all keep in mind, especially guys like me who want to trade the first round pick for the right deal. Do you know how these guys did in their second season? There’s often and adjustment when switching teams.

    Good point. I’ll have a look when time permits.

    I focused on the first season because we’re looking to make the playoffs next year and people want to improve the team NOW.

  146. Bulging Twine says:

    Georgexs:

    The general principle, something we’ve struggled with as a team and as a fanbase, is that teams don’t get better with other team’s forwards. They get better with their own forwards.

    Significant statement

  147. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Darnell Nurse:

    — just turned 24
    — has not yet reached his 300 GP
    — has “Oilers Lifer” stencilled on his ass, but is too smart to get it inked just yet
    — is big, fast, tough, mean & has his teammates’ backs
    — just led the Oilers in TOi with nearly 2000 minutes
    — led the defence in GP, G, A, P, & PiM
    — first Oiler D in a decade to reach 40 points
    — ranked top 30 in NHL D in G & P, & top 20 in EVP
    — finished second on the D behind the usual suspect in hits, & second behind the other usual suspect in blocked shots. Was first in takeaways, also giveaways. Also led the D in shots on goal.
    — broke in same year as McDavid & is pals with the core group
    — was the FIFTH Highest cap hit on the D, is locked in for another year with RFA rights thereafter
    — played with a suboptimal partner
    — is a very proactive player who is fun to watch

    Is he the next CFP? No. Is he the closest thing we’ve had to CFP since the original CFP? I’d argue we’re still finding out.

    I understand the frustration with the mistakes of a still-developing player, but am VERY reluctant to trade this player at this time unless the return is off the charts.

    Just a wonderful post!

  148. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bryan:
    Still not sure why people are in such a rush to trade JP.He’s very young and just had double hip surgery to correct a problem that must have been seriously affecting his skating ability.Why don’t we see how a new administration deals with him and how a more innovative coach handles him.There is too much untapped potential there to throw away this quickly.

    His still large potential provides value to this team far in excess of his current trade value.

    There is zero reason to trade this player for pennies on the dollar.

    There is a large potential for him to be a pretty big value deal on his next contract.

  149. Bulging Twine says:

    JimmyV1965 The wild card is the relationship between JP and mngt. Is it broken beyond repair?

    It wouldn’t be if we refreshed with Krueger and his positive culture

  150. YKOil says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    Florida has 20 Million in cap space.
    And they have vowed to spend to the cap next season.
    Even if they give Bobrovsky and Panarin 10 Million each.

    If they subtract Huberdeau or Hoffman, what are they spending their money on to get back up to the cap?

    I expect the Panarin/Bobrovsky package would run the $20 million.

    – they still have some internal signings to make
    – they need to pay Luongo (unless he retires) – I expect them to trade Reimer and take a loss
    – they may have to make adjustments given Quenneville’s preferences
    – they need a d-man

    Fully expect them to dump one of Huberdeau/Hoffman. Both if they make any BIG moves (I think they may be in on Myers so that is $5m+).

    Edit to add: I see Reimer as another Lucic trade opportunity

  151. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    Bulging Twine: Significant statement

    Yes. I agree completely.

    The second thing that concerns me is Leon. If he is deployed on the same line with Connor next year, we are doomed to replicate this current season all over again. He absolutely has to have his own line next year and the Oil have to figure out how to make it work. Period. We have to come out of next season at least with that. Screw Connor leading (or nearly leading) the league in points. Screw Leon getting 50 goals and 100 pts. I want more wins and this is the only possible way I can see that happening.

  152. JimmyV1965 says:

    Georgexs: Good point. I’ll have a look when time permits.

    I focused on the first season because we’re looking to make the playoffs next year and people want to improve the team NOW.

    Even for guys like me who are willing to trade 8OV, we have to think long term. It’s doubtful we make the playoffs next year even with significant changes. What’s realistic? Swap out the three worst players for three better players. That still leaves major holes.

  153. Georgexs says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Georgexs,

    PPG is a function of TOI and PP opportunity. (and of course, scoring)

    Unless you control for TOI and PPTOI comparing players using PPG is too broad to give any real conclusions.

    Once those are controlled, you control for common line mates and production therein, including PPTOI team mates.Playing 2nd PP isn’t like playing 1st PP.

    You want to find a guy who produces at a first line rate with good players but for whatever reason isn’t getting that opportunity on his current team.

    If you think all of that controlling is going to uncover hidden gems, great.

    I think it’s going to get me in trouble because it’s going to take me into smaller and smaller samples where strange things happen. It’s hard enough to make clear statements about most players; it’s harder still to base those statements on something other than their full body of work.

    Sure, PPG reflects opportunity. But opportunity reflects what a coach thinks of a player. And what a coach thinks of a player is useful information on how that player will do under that coach.

    If a GM trades for a player because the GM think he’s a hidden gem, it’s still up to the HC to use the new player in a way that maximizes his potential and to stick with him through inevitable adversity. The problem for the HC is that he has a lot of mouths to feed and limited opportunity to give them. And if he can’t win with the choices he’s making, his own goose is cooked. So the new player is in no way guaranteed of getting more or longer opportunity with his new team. The numbers I’ve been posting suggest that he’s likely to get less because players are often lagging their career numbers when switching teams.

    The data shows me that current PPG is the most reliable predictor of future offensive performance for a forward, whether you measure future performance as PPG or 5v5 P60 or all sits P60. It’s not very reliable (the correlations are relatively low) but it’s the MOST reliable. 5v5 P60, for example, has a super weak correlation (under 0.4) this season to last for any forward who scored 1.5 or above last season.

    PPG accounts for all of a player’s ice time (larger sample) and it accounts for the opportunity he HAS been given which tells us a fair bit, apparently, of the opportunities he WILL be given.

    Also, Ricki taught me something important last season when he said focusing exclusively on rates could get you in trouble if you’re dealing with players who get injured. Rates matter but total production matters too because if a productive player’s not on the ice, the team is icing a less productive player. It’s hard to get everything into the picture though.

    One last point, I think that there is a lot of group think when it comes to how HC’s view players. Most of them make safe choices. If they were dealt a struggling 3C they’ll treat him like a struggling 3C. The player will have a very narrow window of opportunity to change the HC’s mind. Which means he has to get lucky with the opportunity he’s given. Maroon managed it here. Strome didn’t. But, overall, once a player gets a reputation, the reputation travels with the player.

    Trading for hidden gems is an enormously risky way to build a team depending on what you’re willing to pay for those gems. You need buy-in at all parts of the org. and you still have to get lucky. You should pay rock bottom prices for what you think are hidden gems. Because you’re likely buying rocks.

  154. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    YKOil: To be fair – Larsson would be behind Trouba and Buf.Morrissey is a hell of a player so congrats to whoever gets to play with him; Morrissey over Kulikov.

    Cannot get behind Russell >> Myers (though overall cost could change that opinion).Would take Myers at $5m over Russell at $4m for instance.Will let someone else pay Myers $6m+ though.

    Still like the idea of offersheeting Trouba.

    I follow WPg fairly closely and am comfortable with my opinion.

    There’s good stuff on The Athletic by Murat Ates too.

    Trouba plays with Morrissey. Great young 1st pair.

    Buf is zooming Chariot on those results as well.

    WPG needs 2C and 2LD quite badly.

    I don’t think Chevy is a good GM regardless of how patient he is with kids.

    Hasn’t added many good NHLers outside of renting Statsny and I like Perrault on the 3rd line.

  155. JimmyV1965 says:

    Bulging Twine: It wouldn’t be if we refreshed with Krueger and his positive culture

    Not at least interviewing Krueger would be a huge fail. He would have some very interesting insights into mngt. But this is the Oilers.

  156. YKOil says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    I don’t think Chevy is a good GM regardless of how patient he is with kids.

    Every team has phases/mode in their history – Winnipeg is in the win-now phase and methinks Chevy isn’t as accomplished at that as he is the ‘patiently build’ phase.

  157. geowal says:

    Lowetide: I plan on doing them for the playoff games.

    Awesome, I couldn’t have told you if they started yet so I need all the help I Can get.

  158. Georgexs says:

    Rich M: Really like your work here, but one thing about last nights game.Ehlers was checked into the boards early in the 2nd and his head clearly hit the glass.I believe that’s why his minutes were down because he was out for a long stretch last night.

    St. Louis system is very stifling. For the first half of the game though, Winnipeg was very effective at breaking it down, but as the game went on, that changed.

    Small sample sizes though.

    I caught the third period. i don’t remember hearing Ehlers’ name. That explains it..

    Are you a WPG fan? I think they’re going to have to try Brossoit. The kind of goals Hellebuyck is giving up will kill a team.

    Brossoit could potentially be hailed a hero in WPG soon. I’m not sure whether I want that to happen or I don’t want that to happen. No, no. I’m sure, I’m REALLY sure I don’t want that to happen. That would be a mountain of GROSS if Brossoit turns out to be Matt Murray in 2016.

    Scroll up to the top in LT’s post where he quotes PC on managing Talbot’s minutes going into this year.

    “And we have to manage that better, and I’ve talked to Todd and the staff, about managing that better.”

    So much of what PC did was a function of the reality TMac showed him. So many failed players who really weren’t failed players. PC didn’t start questioning that reality until it was too late.

  159. Bulging Twine says:

    Which Wingers should we target in free agency? Sounds like there is going to be a lot of cap space available throughout the league this summer making it tough to get the players we want at the price we want.

  160. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I follow WPg fairly closely and am comfortable with my opinion.

    There’s good stuff on The Athletic by Murat Ates too.

    Trouba plays with Morrissey.Great young 1st pair.

    Buf is zooming Chariot on those results as well.

    WPG needs 2C and 2LD quite badly.

    I don’t think Chevy is a good GM regardless of how patient he is with kids.

    Hasn’t added many good NHLers outside of renting Statsny and I like Perrault on the 3rd line.

    Chevaldayoff is Mr. dithers clone.
    He fell into an elite amateur scouting department

  161. Bulging Twine says:

    This NSH – DAL game is noticably faster than the WSH – CAR game

  162. leadfarmer says:

    YKOil: To be fair – Larsson would be behind Trouba and Buf.Morrissey is a hell of a player so congrats to whoever gets to play with him; Morrissey over Kulikov.

    Cannot get behind Russell >> Myers (though overall cost could change that opinion).Would take Myers at $5m over Russell at $4m for instance.Will let someone else pay Myers $6m+ though.

    Still like the idea of offersheeting Trouba.

    Trouba doesn’t like Winnipeg so he goes to Edmonton?
    Don’t see it happening. He doesn’t sign your offer sheet
    He is going back to the states

  163. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bulging Twine:
    This NSH – DAL game is noticably faster than the WSH – CAR game

    The biggest unspoken thing is that WSH won the Cup with heavy hockey last year.

    They just didn’t get heavy at the expense of skill like Pete.

  164. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georgexs: If you think all of that controlling is going to uncover hidden gems, great.

    I think it’s going to get me in trouble because it’s going to take me into smaller and smaller samples where strange things happen. It’s hard enough to make clear statements about most players; it’s harder still to base those statements on something other than their full body of work.

    Sure, PPG reflects opportunity. But opportunity reflects what a coach thinks of a player. And what a coach thinks of a player is useful information on how that player will do under that coach.

    If a GM trades for a player because the GM think he’s a hidden gem, it’s still up to the HC to use the new player in a way that maximizes his potential and to stick with him through inevitable adversity. The problem for the HC is that he has a lot of mouths to feed and limited opportunity to give them. And if he can’t win with the choices he’s making, his own goose is cooked. So the new player is in no way guaranteed of getting more or longer opportunity with his new team. The numbers I’ve been posting suggest that he’s likely to get less because players are often lagging their career numbers when switching teams.

    The data shows me that current PPG is the most reliable predictor of future offensive performance for a forward, whether you measure future performance as PPG or 5v5 P60 or all sits P60. It’s not very reliable (the correlations are relatively low) but it’s the MOST reliable. 5v5 P60, for example, has a super weak correlation (under 0.4) this season to last for any forward who scored 1.5 or above last season.

    PPG accounts for all of a player’s ice time (larger sample) and it accounts for the opportunity he HAS been given which tells us a fair bit, apparently, of the opportunities he WILL be given.

    Also, Ricki taught me something important last season when he said focusing exclusively on rates could get you in trouble if you’re dealing with players who get injured. Rates matter but total production matters too because if a productive player’s not on the ice, the team is icing a less productive player. It’s hard to get everything into the picture though.

    One last point, I think that there is a lot of group think when it comes to how HC’s view players. Most of them make safe choices. If they were dealt a struggling 3C they’ll treat him like a struggling 3C. The player will have a very narrow window of opportunity to change the HC’s mind. Which means he has to get lucky with the opportunity he’s given. Maroon managed it here. Strome didn’t. But, overall, once a player gets a reputation, the reputation travels with the player.

    Trading for hidden gems is an enormously risky way to build a team depending on what you’re willing to pay for those gems. You need buy-in at all parts of the org. and you still have to get lucky. You should pay rock bottom prices for what you think are hidden gems. Because you’re likely buying rocks.

    This is a good and thoughtful post and I want to respond to it when I’m back at a desk top.

    Will respond in this thread even if it’s tomorrow.

  165. Ryan says:

    Bulging Twine: Significant statement

    I was going to quote the exact portion of his post earlier today, but I was using Woodguy’s phone.

    The only forward Tampa has that they didn’t draft or develop is cap anchor Ryan Callahan.

    The only dman that Tampa drafted and/or developed is Hedman.

    The Preds are one of the few successful teams that have patched together their forward lines from trades and free agency.

    The Blues are the other…

  166. Reja says:

    leadfarmer: Trouba doesn’t like Winnipeg so he goes to Edmonton?
    Don’t see it happening.He doesn’t sign your offer sheet
    He is going back to the states

    Keith or whoever is the new GM is not pissing off every other GM by offer sheeting anyone.

  167. leadfarmer says:

    Reja: Keith or whoever is the new GM is not pissing off every other GM by offer sheeting anyone.

    Yeah the hockey community is too small and inbred for offer sheets to take off.
    The guy you piss of today may be the guy you are asking for a job tomorrow

  168. Westchester Oil says:

    JimmyV1965: Excellent, excellent post.

    Of course. What else would you expect from BFM?

  169. OriginalPouzar says:

    Maksimov in the lineup for Niagara this morning – AWESOME!

  170. Rich M says:

    Georgexs,

    Not a WPG fan, but it’s been a great series to watch. Two big, fast teams. Blues have done a very good job making it hard on the Jets to sustain any attack. Goalering the difference last night (two pucks went right thru him).

    Broissoit may be the answer but will, Maurice actually make a change? Tough decision. Any you are absolutely correct, how many times have we had the answers on our roster and seen them leave and find success else where.

    GM and Coach must be on the same page moving forward.

  171. who says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I follow WPg fairly closely and am comfortable with my opinion.

    There’s good stuff on The Athletic by Murat Ates too.

    Trouba plays with Morrissey.Great young 1st pair.

    Buf is zooming Chariot on those results as well.

    WPG needs 2C and 2LD quite badly.

    I don’t think Chevy is a good GM regardless of how patient he is with kids.

    Hasn’t added many good NHLers outside of renting Statsny and I like Perrault on the 3rd line.

    Gotta agree with YKoil here. I would take Myers at 5 million (even 6) over Russell at 4 million. Especially at 2RD. The only reason he plays 3RD in Winnipeg is because of Trouba and Buff.
    My only concern with Myers is injury, he’s already had a couple of lower body surgeries. That’s the only thing that would scare me re term. I don’t see a cliff coming for him anytime soon because he skates so well. Right shot dman who can skate and handle the puck in a 6 ft 7 package. Why wouldn’t we want that. I follow Winnipeg too, and I see a quality player.
    As for Chevy as a GM, all I can say is he built a pretty good team. Lots of really good teams don’t win a cup. Does that make their GM bad?
    Doug Wilson hasn’t won in San Jose forever. Does that make him bad? If they win this year does he suddenly become better?
    It took Washington 13 years to win a cup around Ovie. Tampa may not win one. Does that mean their GMs were, or are, bad?
    I think we need to realize their is a lot of randomness involved in winning a cup. Give me a GM who can ice a contender for 6 or 8 years and I’ll take my chances.

  172. Bulging Twine says:

    Ryan:

    The only forward Tampa has that they didn’t draft or develop is cap anchor Ryan Callahan.

    Al Murray is so good

  173. OriginalPouzar says:

    Decidedly Skeptical Fan: Yes. I agree completely.

    The second thing that concerns me is Leon. If he is deployed on the same line with Connor next year, we are doomed to replicate this current season all over again. He absolutely has to have his own line next year and the Oil have to figure out how to make it work. Period. We have to come out of next season at least with that. Screw Connor leading (or nearly leading) the league in points. Screw Leon getting 50 goals and 100 pts. I want more wins and this is the only possible way I can see that happening.

    There is certaintly an argument for this but its not necessarily true. It partially depends on the others that will be in the top 6 and if something competent can be acquired for Nuge or if Jesse takes that step:

    Drai/McDavid/Kassian
    Panik/Nuge/Pirri
    Gagner/Kharia/Puljujarvi
    Benson/Cave/Carr

    Lucic/Brodziak

    Doesn’t look great I guess, Ehlers over Panik would be something. Marody could get in there somewhere.

  174. OriginalPouzar says:

    Decidedly Skeptical Fan: Yes. I agree completely.

    The second thing that concerns me is Leon. If he is deployed on the same line with Connor next year, we are doomed to replicate this current season all over again. He absolutely has to have his own line next year and the Oil have to figure out how to make it work. Period. We have to come out of next season at least with that. Screw Connor leading (or nearly leading) the league in points. Screw Leon getting 50 goals and 100 pts. I want more wins and this is the only possible way I can see that happening.

    There is certaintly an argument for this but its not necessarily true. It partially depends on the others that will be in the top 6 and if something competent can be acquired for Nuge or if Jesse takes that step:

    Drai/McDavid/Kassian
    Panik/Nuge/Pirri
    Gagner/Kharia/Puljujarvi
    Benson/Cave/Carr

    Lucic/Brodziak

    Doesn’t look great I guess, Ehlers over Panik would be something. Marody could get in there somewhere. Joe G. and Currie are other options.

  175. Bulging Twine says:

    Listening to Berube and Gallant they don’t sound extremely brilliant but one thing that they both do is leave the lines alone. They don’t outcoach themselves by constantly changing line combinations. Something that we can’t say about MacLellan and Hitchcock.
    Trotz is another who doesn’t overcoach.
    Players like this and over time I think it has big benefits.

  176. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bulging Twine:
    Which Wingers should we target in free agency?Sounds like there is going to be a lot of cap space available throughout the league this summer making it tough to get the players we want at the price we want.

    Bradon Pirri, Daniel Carr, Richard Panik

    Not quite ready to play in the upper snack bracket.

  177. Bulging Twine says:

    OriginalPouzar: Bradon Pirri, Daniel Carr, Richard Panik

    Not quite ready to play in the upper snack bracket.

    How much do you think Panik will get?

  178. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: There is certaintly an argument for this but its not necessarily true.It partially depends on the others that will be in the top 6 and if something competent can be acquired for Nuge or if Jesse takes that step:

    Drai/McDavid/Kassian
    Panik/Nuge/Pirri
    Gagner/Kharia/Puljujarvi
    Benson/Cave/Carr

    Lucic/Brodziak

    Doesn’t look great I guess, Ehlers over Panik would be something. Marody could get in there somewhere.Joe G. and Currie are other options.

    Why do you have Benson on the 4th line? Old school gotta earn your minutes? Seems like a waste of his talent. I’d like to see him with Nuge.

  179. JimmyV1965 says:

    ArmchairGM: Why do you have Benson on the 4th line? Old school gotta earn your minutes? Seems like a waste of his talent. I’d like to see him with Nuge.

    I think you can play Benson with RNH if he’s the third best player on the line, but if he plays there with a Lucic or Chiasson type winger, I don’t think you’re helping his development. In that case, he may be better off playing lower in the order against weaker competition.

  180. ArmchairGM says:

    JimmyV1965: I think you can play Benson with RNH if he’s the third best player on the line, but if he plays there with a Lucic or Chiasson type winger, I don’t think you’re helping his development. In that case, he may be better off playing lower in the order against weaker competition.

    But on a checking line?! That doesn’t make sense to me.

  181. ArmchairGM says:

    JimmyV1965: I think you can play Benson with RNH if he’s the third best player on the line, but if he plays there with a Lucic or Chiasson type winger, I don’t think you’re helping his development. In that case, he may be better off playing lower in the order against weaker competition.

    Also, Lucic and Benson both play LW, so it’s unlikely that they will be together much. Panik is a veteran, he should be able to play on the 3rd line without much drop off in production, to put a rookie with Cave and Carr is certainly not helping his development at all.

  182. ashley says:

    leadfarmer:
    Small PCL tear.Well thats great news.That should heal up without a problem.He will be ready long before training camp

    That’s bogus. I know you are a rad (or at least I remember a post that suggested you are), so I’ll ask you: What is the incidence of an isolated PCL tear? How often do you see the PCL torn in any situation where the energy of impact is less than a high speed MVA?

    That sounds like an over-read by the rad to give credence to the excessive drama at and after the collision, mostly perpetuated by the media. I can hear the spprts doc on the phone with the rad “Come on, this is McDavid. We can’t just have this go out as normal after everyone was so worked up. You have to give me something more than bone contusion.”

  183. OriginalPouzar says:

    I have seen quite a few examples on the playoffs of Bouchard using strait away speed to make both offensive, breakout and defensive plays.

    He looks lumbering but the actual speed looks just fine to me.

    https://twitter.com/theoilknight/status/1117213689667440641?s=12

  184. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Munny:
    If the Jets bow out quickly, would you be interested in Paul Maurice?

    If he can’t win when his roster is stacked, which will change this summer……

  185. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I have seen quite a few examples on the playoffs of Bouchard using strait away speed to make both offensive, breakout and defensive plays.

    He looks lumbering but the actual speed looks just fine to me.

    https://twitter.com/theoilknight/status/1117213689667440641?s=12

    Which was noted in draft reports. He’s not slow he’s just not explosive, he’s fast backwards, don’t know about pivots which of course is key for D

  186. Pescador says:

    OriginalPouzar: There is certaintly an argument for this but its not necessarily true.It partially depends on the others that will be in the top 6 and if something competent can be acquired for Nuge or if Jesse takes that step:

    Drai/McDavid/Kassian
    Panik/Nuge/Pirri
    Gagner/Kharia/Puljujarvi
    Benson/Cave/Carr

    Lucic/Brodziak

    Doesn’t look great I guess, Ehlers over Panik would be something. Marody could get in there somewhere.Joe G. and Currie are other options.

    Good post, I like the line up
    I would switch Benson & Gagner
    Small improvements can make a huge difference
    I would also HS Lucic until he opts for a mutual termination

  187. Pescador says:

    Scungilli Slushy: If he can’t win when his roster is stacked, which will change this summer……

    I would guess the goalie

  188. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM:
    ORIGINALPOUZAR says:
    April 13, 2019 at 5:59 pm
    I have seen quite a few examples on the playoffs of Bouchard using strait away speed to make both offensive, breakout and defensive plays.
    He looks lumbering but the actual speed looks just fine to me.
    https://twitter.com/theoilknight/status/1117213689667440641?s=12

    Nope, that’s not why – it’s because who else do you move Dow. I put him with Carr, an offensive minded player.

  189. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: But on a checking line?! That doesn’t make sense to me.

    </blockquo

    ArmchairGM: But on a checking line?! That doesn’t make sense to me.

    I don’t consider it a checking line which is why the other flank is an offensive minded player.

    I’m not married to that line stricture. Maybe Paniik isn’t signed and Benson can move up to 2Lw.

  190. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pescador: Good post, I like the line up
    I would switch Benson & Gagner
    Small improvements can make a huge difference
    I would also HS Lucic until he opts for a mutual termination

    Thanks – Lucic is not realistically going to agree to simply give up millions upon millions.

  191. Georgexs says:

    The Bruins are gross.

    And the refs let them get away with all sorts of BS.

    Is there pro-US ref bias?

    Go Leafs Go…??

  192. Pescador says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Georgexs,

    You want to find a guy who produces at a first line rate with good players but for whatever reason isn’t getting that opportunity on his current team.

    While this is technically true
    what I really want is for you to cruch all of the important numbers in that giant brain of yours and
    Tell me who that guy is…
    Thanks Woodguy, you’re the best

  193. YKOil says:

    OriginalPouzar: Bradon Pirri, Daniel Carr, Richard Panik

    Not quite ready to play in the upper snack bracket.

    If we can’t move any salary (pretty much in order actually):

    Veterans top-6: Zuccarello, Eberle
    Veterans for middle-6: Panik, Donskoi, Tanev, Connolly, Chaisson
    Veterans for bottom-6: Paajarvi
    Bets: Pirri, Carr

    I like Zuccarello, one of Panik/Donskoi/Tanev, Paajarvi and one of Pirri/Carr

    Chaisson is great, love him, but cost is a real issue there as his results are unsustainable (imo) and he doesn’t penalty kill and he isn’t a speedster. I have thought about this a lot and would be willing to offer him term if he is willing to settle for less than what a 20 goal guy normally goes for.

    I am no capologist (I know the Cap to Cash ratio is fine but I have no idea what a maximum signing bonus % may be for instance) but I offer 4 years at $1.65m per year

    Cap. … 1.65 … 1.65 … 1.65 … 1.65
    Cash … 2.30 … 1.75 … 1.40 … 1.15
    SB$. … 1.00 … 0.80 … 0.60 … 0.50

    That is probably too low, but that is what I offer, that is my framework. I don’t think any teams will go 4 years and so that is my hook. Most of his cap hit can be buried and the contract is set up to be trade-friendly, after the signing bonus is paid, starting in year 2.

    Paajarvi is, at least as far as I know so correct me if I am wrong, a really good penalty kill guy that can be had at a really good price. I really want a better penalty kill unit. He is, also, still fast; that is a good thing.

  194. Pescador says:

    Georgexs:
    The Bruins are gross.

    And the refs let them get away with all sorts of BS.

    Is there pro-US ref bias?

    Go Leafs Go…??

    No Leafs No

  195. Pescador says:

    OriginalPouzar: Thanks – Lucic is not realistically going to agree to simply give up millions upon millions.

    Hard to argue with that logic,
    Will be a bitter pill to swallow for him followed by a buy out
    the following summer
    Just my guess

  196. YKOil says:

    OriginalPouzar: Thanks – Lucic is not realistically going to agree to simply give up millions upon millions.

    Agreed, the HS scratch option is scorched earth type of stuff. I pull that option out ONLY if he refuses a trade. Would be hard enough to arrange a trade, to have him ixnay it because he would prefer to play poorly here… would be bad.

  197. Lowetide says:

    Georgexs:
    The Bruins are gross.

    And the refs let them get away with all sorts of BS.

    Is there pro-US ref bias?

    Go Leafs Go…??

    Ahem. Someone better tell him about me.

  198. leadfarmer says:

    ashley: That’s bogus.I know you are a rad (or at least I remember a post that suggested you are), so I’ll ask you: What is the incidence of an isolated PCL tear?How often do you see the PCL torn in any situation where the energy of impact is less than a high speed MVA?

    That sounds like an over-read by the rad to give credence to the excessive drama at and after the collision, mostly perpetuated by the media.I can hear the spprts doc on the phone with the rad “Come on, this is McDavid.We can’t just have this go out as normal after everyone was so worked up.You have to give me something more than bone contusion.”

    He clearly injured something on the play
    Tearing the PCL by itself is not common but most commonly associated with, you guessed it bone contusion. Certain mechanisms are more likely to damage the PCL alone such as sitting with legs up and smacking your shins on the dash in a car wreck or sliding into a post at high speed that drives the tibia straight back. Sliding into a medal object at 30kmph fits criteria for energy impact. (Fall from 10 feet is considered high speed impact in the trauma protocols)
    You must remember that most ligament knee injuries are twisting related hence multiple injuries
    There are MRI criteria for calling a PCL injury as well as physical exam signs
    He has been evaluated by multiple professionals and experts in their field
    They have 0 reasons to create drama around this
    And a knee of this much value has numerous people overlooking
    PCL injuries are commonly not operated on

  199. Georgexs says:

    Lowetide: Ahem. Someone better tell him about me.

    What gets me in hotter water?

    Cheering for the Leafs or saying bad things about the Bruins?

  200. leadfarmer says:

    Bishop giving those preds grief.
    If he didn’t get injured at miss time this year he probably should have been given the Vezina and the Hart nomination

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