Sad Songs and Waltzes

To be honest, I had a tough time figuring out Peter Chiarelli’s language. He used vague terms. “Heavy sticks” and “higher pace” but was quick to add that didn’t necessarily mean speed.

PC once said the following: “Thinking more quickly, moving the puck through all three zones more quickly. You know you start at some point on the rink, whether it’s breaking out, whether it’s recovering in the neutral zone, whether it’s how you attack in the offensive zone, how you manage odd man rushes. It’s across the spectrum.”

I have yet to hear a coherent statement about the difference between speed and pace. Grover taught near and far, maybe he can tackle speed and pace.

THE ATHLETIC

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group.INSANE NEW OFFER IS HERE!

  • New Lowetide: Ron Hextall’s patient approach as GM would be shock to Oilers’ system
  • New Jonathan Willis: Michael Futa’s success at the NHL Draft makes him a credible GM candidate for the Oilers
  • Lowetide: The Oilers possible summer trade pieces, and which longtime players might be saying goodbye.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ten prospects likely to be available when the Oilers make their first-round pick.
  • Jonathan Willis: Bob Nicholson mostly says the right things, but stalls on making changes to the Oilers.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The pressure’s squarely on Bob Nicholson to make right GM hire for Oilers.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers Report Cards: Few passing grades remain in season full of failure.
  • Lowetide: How winning the draft lottery and drafting Jack Hughes could transform the Oilers.
  • Lowetide: The Oilers have a trio of Condors blue pushing and all three are tracking well. How does this group compare to the Petry, Chorney, Wild college men from a decade ago?
  • Jonathan Willis: Connor McDavid’s frustration should be seen by the Oilers as a warning of possible disaster.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers have another problem to solve: Lifting the cloud over a clearly frustrated Connor McDavid
  • Lowetide: What Mark Hunter’s draft record in Toronto means for his Oilers GM candidacy.
  • Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers, the republic of Finland and the 2019 draft.
  • Lowetide: The Oilers made a rare move and shopped the QMJHL at the 2018 draft. It could happen again.
  • Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers draft early, the WHL is loaded and there’s a lot of history.
  • Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers and the OHL.

CHIARELLI’S NEEDS LIST ONE YEAR AGO

Defense: I think our speed starts at the back end and getting the puck up through the zones quickly. That’s not putting all the onus on the defense, but I that’s part of it, and so that’s an area where we’ll have to tweak.”

He was counting on a healthy Oscar Klefbom, a healthy Andrej Sekera and enough from Darnell Nurse, Adam Larsson and Matt Benning to make outlet passing something better than a weakness. Sekera got hurt before training camp, Klefbom went down when the team was 17-12-2 (won the game in which he and Russell were hurt) but went 18-26-7 afterward.

Chiarelli didn’t add enough after Sekera’s injury signing only Jakub Jerabek and Jason Garrison for 2018-19. Slim pickings out there, I get it, but the Oilers once again left the station without balance.

Scoring forward(s): So we could do a better job finding a winger or two, it’s certainly on the to-do list, but I think our wingers, you know they’re obviously not good enough as a whole when you look at our performance this year, but I don’t think we should just pin it on the wingers.”

Le sigh. Chiarelli would get exceptional value in a late signing of Alex Chiasson, but Tobias Rieder was the only other substantial addition. What’s more, Chiarelli’s mid-season moves to shore up the position proved worthy of a Poe novella.

Backup goalie:I know we have contracted goalies for next year, Cam and Al Montoya. But it’s (upgrading backup) certainly, that’s closer near the top of the list of things to look at, and it’s something that we’ll have to look at closely, because there are rigors of the travel schedule, there are rigors of playing a lot of games. I would hope that Cam is our goalie going forward, like beyond next year, contractually he goes to next year, so we have to put him in a position to succeed too. And we have to manage that better, and I’ve talked to Todd and the staff, about managing that better. Managing it better means maybe you need a better alternative too.”

I think PC did a good job here, although the second Koskinen contract was premature and an overpay. That said, Mikko Koskinen gives the Oilers an NHL starter, albeit at the lower end and requiring a substantial backpup. There’s plenty of room to be critical, but with so much low hanging fruit I find it difficult to dig in on the decision to make the original signing.

The 1994-born forwards: Did we over project on a couple of young guys? Maybe early on we did, and you know part of what we’re trying to accomplish here, is getting each age group of players to progress, and whether it’s the earlier really top end players to inherit, not just more responsibility playing but more responsibility leading, whether it’s those group of 94’s, get them to take the next step so that we have a real good gradual churn that’ll take place, and it’s hard. So that was as a management perspective, that is in part what we were trying to do, and you know when you talk about the under-performance of wingers, there’s some young wingers you’re talking about, whether it’s Jesse or the 94s. So we’re trying to do that, sometimes it’s a little bit forcing it, but that’s kind of part of the overall plan that we’re trying to accomplish here, and that plays a part of it.

The “94’s” were Drake Caggila, Anton Slepyshev and Jujhar Khaira, and Jesse Puljujarvi was also mentioned. You could include Ty Rattie and Valentin Zykov if so inclined. Anyway, only Khaira and JP are left and the Finn is hanging by a thread.

What a summer. Tomorrow, we’ll suss out the needs for 2019 June-July.

KAILER YAMAMOTO

One player likely to be in camp who both plays wing and has skill is Kailer Yamamoto. Edmonton’s AHL prospects have enjoyed mostly positive seasons, but Yamamoto has struggled with injury and in posting numbers. Our friend Eric Rodgers last ran his numbers March 19, here are the forwards NHL equivalencies. You’d like 30+ for all legit prospects, anything over 35 points is excellent.

  1. Cooper Marody 41.75
  2. Jesse Puljujarvi 38.54
  3. Tyler Benson 36.55
  4. Joe Gambardella 36.13
  5. Josh Currie 29.1
  6. Cam Hebig 27.35
  7. Patrick Russell 27.30
  8. Kailer Yamamoto 25.2
  9. Brad Malone 22.56
  10. Mitch Callahan 18.59
  11. Dave Gust 17.66
  12. Evan Polei 16.13
  13. Tyler Vesel 12.85
  14. Nolan Vesey 8.56
  15. Braden Christoffer 8.26
  16. Luke Esposito 6.88

Yamamoto has also missed many games with injury, thereby giving this season the overall feeling of being lost. He hasn’t played since March 22 and was dressed in just five games in the entire month. His wrist injury may well have impact the offense, but a return soon and a strong playoff would allay fears and possibly put him in position to push for NHL employment in the fall.

As I suspected, KG is still in the running for the big job. At this point, he’s been included to the point where one imagines he would have to consider walking if excluded now. You can’t promise a man consideration, then tell him he’s out before he gets to have his interview. As of the media avail, it was obvious to me (he has a plan but isn’t going to share it) the opportunity is still in front of him. The Oilers are going to need Gretzky for the draft, it would be foolish to drop the hammer now.

What happened with the rumor? There may have been a point after Chiarelli’s firing when KG was told he would not be under consideration. Things have changed. That’s my reasoning.

This. is. big. This is what is beyond Corsi, shot differential and goal differential. Binning opposition is the single biggest advancement we’ve seen in many years, in my opinion. Congrats to a wonderful team of brilliant math men. We are lucky to have you.

After last night’s vague release, you knew it wouldn’t take long for someone to track down more information. No surgery, he’ll be ready for camp. You are safe to go about your business. Please place your tray tables up and your seat back in the full upright position. We will be departing to summer shortly. 

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298 Responses to "Sad Songs and Waltzes"

« Older Comments
  1. Pescador says:

    YKOil: Agreed, the HS scratch option is scorched earth type of stuff.I pull that option out ONLY if he refuses a trade.Would be hard enough to arrange a trade, to have him ixnay it because he would prefer to play poorly here… would be bad.

    I am assuming that no other org is willing to take on the albatross that is Lucic’s contract.
    I would add no sweetners beyond a previously drafted player that wasn’t going to sign here anyway or a later round pick.
    I suppose he is the 4th line LW until further notice.

  2. jzed says:

    Watching Fedun, Picklic , Cogs play playoff hockey, watching the big man in St.Lou score goals, Schultz playing with Sid , who says we Oiler fans can’t watch our guys in the playoffs? Did we hire a GM yet?

  3. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    OriginalPouzar: Thanks – Lucic is not realistically going to agree to simply give up millions upon millions.

    Who cares, healthy scratch him anyway … addition by subtraction.

  4. jzed says:

    Also enjoying all the skill guys having to play against , hooking, slashing and interference that HE deals with every shift, quality refereeing as always.

  5. ashley says:

    leadfarmer: He clearly injured something on the play
    Tearing the PCL by itself is not common but most commonly associated with, you guessed it bone contusion.Certain mechanisms are more likely to damage the PCL alone such as sitting with legs up and smacking your shins on the dash in a car wreck or sliding into a post at high speed that drives the tibia straight back. Sliding into a medal object at 30kmph fits criteria for energy impact.(Fall from 10 feetis considered high speed impact in the trauma protocols)
    You must remember that most ligament knee injuries are twisting related hence multiple injuries
    There are MRI criteria for calling a PCL injury as well as physical exam signs
    He has been evaluated by multiple professionals and experts in their field
    They have 0 reasons to create drama around this
    And a knee of this much value has numerous people overlooking
    PCL injuries are commonly not operated on

    Ah, I’m not buying it. I bet if you showed that MR to several rads you would get various opinions from this alleged “small” PCL tear to volume averaging.

    Regardless of whether there is a “small” PCL tear or not, I would consider it of doubtful clinical significance. McDavid is fine.

    Zero reasons to overcall an MRI? Not really. The sports doc sent him out on crutches clearly coming to some sort of clinical conclusion that he needed to be NWB and telling the coaching staff and McDavid that he was worried about a significant ligamentous inury, occult fracture, or meniscal injury. He had a LOT of his own clinical credibility tied up in the results of that MRI.

  6. Gerta Rauss says:

    OriginalPouzar: Thanks – Lucic is not realistically going to agree to simply give up millions upon millions.

    It’s a reach for sure, but you never know with guys that already have millions and millions

    Kovalchuk walked away from millions in Jersey(granted, that was to make millions in the KHL)

    Patrick Berglund’s contract was terminated by Buffalo this year-the details are sketchy(failure to report to practice) but Berglund made that decision to walk away from almost $10m

    It’s not going to happen, but it can’t be dismissed outright

    Assming Lucic did walk away from his Oilers contract, I could see an NHL team signing him to another NHL contract for a fraction of his current deal

    It depends on his motivation to play NHL hockey

  7. Reja says:

    Georgexs: What gets me in hotter water?

    Cheering for the Leafs or saying bad things about the Bruins?

    Gotta love Cherry for embarrassing the leafs for whining like drama queens after every hit.

  8. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Pescador: I would guess the goalie

    They’ve been the best in a long while. Team stability is big here, and the Jets whimpered in to to the playoffs. Trotz had the opposite results and also dealt with a failing #1 heading into last year’s playoffs.

    The islanders also saw goalie benefits.

    Coaches have to win with deep teams. Motivation and player management is bigger than ever.

    Torts remains an enigma.

  9. Reja says:

    Pescador: I am assuming that no other org is willing to take on the albatross that is Lucic’s contract.
    I would add no sweetners beyond a previously drafted player that wasn’t going to sign here anyway or a later round pick.
    I suppose he is the 4th line LW until further notice.

    The new GM is not going to HS Lucic for 4 years

  10. leadfarmer says:

    ashley,

    It’s t2 bright signal and measurement of size of the ligament two things made to make it pretty straight forward. The PCL is an ugly looking thing.
    Put him on crutches before MRI to make sure there is no injury
    Put him on crutches afterwards because they were obviously worried about some ligamentous laxity
    He’s going to recover just fine
    I don’t see the need to attack someone’s professional integrity that you don’t know
    There’s a reason there is standardized criteria for injury grading
    This case if something bad happens has the possibility to be critiqued left and right. You are calling cases like this very tight to the book
    For some reason you have something against the two specialties

  11. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Georgexs:
    The Bruins are gross.

    And the refs let them get away with all sorts of BS.

    Is there pro-US ref bias?

    Go Leafs Go…??

    Kadri is so filthy he neutralizes Marchand so it’s even.

  12. godot10 says:

    Reja: The new GM is not going to HS Lucic for 4 years

    Only until the expansion draft, when he will have to be bought out as an out from being forced to protect him.

    Healthy scratching Lucic is the right thing to do.

  13. OriginalPouzar says:

    Guelph storming back and making a series of it (and delaying Bakersfield help).

    I think I would prefer Bouchard in Bake this year over Samorukov as we are fairly certain Samorukov will be there in October.

  14. Reja says:

    What I find interesting and knew would happen is the craftier goaltenders are initiating contact outside of the blue paint trying to get a call or disallowed goal.

  15. ashley says:

    leadfarmer:
    ashley,

    It’s t2 bright signal and measurement of size of the ligament two things made to make it pretty straight forward.The PCL is an ugly looking thing.
    Put him on crutches before MRI to make sure there is no injury
    Put him on crutches afterwards because they were obviously worried about some ligamentous laxity
    He’s going to recover just fine
    I don’t see the need to attack someone’s professional integrity that you don’t know
    For some reason you have something against the two specialties

    I think your last two lines are a little aggressive, no?

    Only on the internet does a disagreement become an “attack”. Debate and disagreement is the essence of our discussions here.

    I have something against these specialties? No, I would just like to hear the truth. The chances of McDavid having an isolated PCL tear on that play are very, very low. In my opinion.

    Anyway, we are not getting anywhere with this and it feels played out now. I appreciate your feedback and opinions provided.

  16. Reja says:

    Bruins have found the Leafs weakness contact hockey.

  17. New Improved Darkness says:

    I recently encountered someone distinguishing persistence from tenacity: telemarketers are persistent, Nike is tenacious.

    This is obvious, I read, because persistent resembles persist which resembles pester (and the pestle is the pulsating pistil for making pesto, and the mortar is the silent partner, until presto it goes bang).

    No, I wasn’t entirely buying his “p” logic.

    But I did decide it was useful for my own purposes to think of persistence as the anxiety/OCD side of the spectrum and tenacity as the grit/get-up-again side of the spectrum.

    I get knocked down, but I get up again
    You are never gonna keep me down
    I get knocked down, but I get up again
    You are never gonna keep me down
    I get knocked down, but I get up again
    You are never gonna keep me down
    I get knocked down, but I get up again
    You are never gonna keep me down

    Very … insistent.

  18. leadfarmer says:

    ashley: I think your last two lines are a little aggressive, no?

    Only on the internet does a disagreement become an “attack”.Debate and disagreement is the essence of our discussions here.

    I have something against these specialties?No, I would just like to hear the truth.The chances of McDavid having an isolated PCL tear on that play are very, very low.In my opinion.

    Anyway, we are not getting anywhere with this and it feels played out now.I appreciate your feedback and opinions provided.

    My point is, It’s not one radiologist that reads these. It’s a team because of the litigation risk you want to get more than one set of eyes (imagine missing something that leads to Mcdavid losing his career). The conversation of oh can you call something on that ligament so I can save face just does not happen. First why would the ortho team care to “save face”.Yes a lot of radiologist hedge on calls but a lot of things are vary standardized so that multiple people call the same thing (grade 1 ligament sprain this grade 2 this, grade 3 this) so you don’t have different people call different things on the same thing
    Soft tissue resolution of MRI is so good that volume averaging isn’t an issue, more seen in CT, which is why you do MRI
    Anyway before MRIs became available docs were able to make calls on PCL injuries with a simple test. MRI is great and grading the extent of injury and finding additional injuries (meniscal things)
    I had a significant tibial plateau fracture 2 years ago and never got an MRI

  19. Reja says:

    godot10: Only until the expansion draft, when he will have to be bought out as an out from being forced to protect him.

    Healthy scratching Lucic is the right thing to do.

    I think number 1 priority for the new GM is moving Lucic this offseason no way they HS him way to toxic for the player team and fans.

  20. Pescador says:

    Reja: The new Head Coach is not going to HS Lucic for 4 years

    Fixed.
    I’m sure the next play will be for Lucic’s agent to make his trade request public.
    At which point I will guess there are no takers, then blame the contract.
    Healthy Scratches followed by barbs exchanged through the media.
    Either way something will have to give.
    I’m sure we all agree that the situation can not continue as is.

  21. Bulging Twine says:

    Reja:
    Bruins have found the Leafsweakness contact hockey.

    They were looking shell shocked for a while there

  22. leadfarmer says:

    I hope the Isles make it further in the playoffs this year than the leafs do in Tavares leafs career

  23. leadfarmer says:

    If Halak could just ask for a trade that would be great

  24. godot10 says:

    Reja: I think number 1 priority for the new GM is moving Lucic this offseason no way they HS him way to toxic for the player team and fans.

    It is too costly in terms of assets to move him. If the Oilers are fortunate to find a place where the cost is not prohibitive, move him. But that really is wishful thinking unless another GM makes a mistake.

    He signed the contract. He has to live with the consequences (healthy scratch) of not living up to it.

    You can’t play him.

  25. leadfarmer says:

    godot10: It is too costly in terms of assets to move him.If the Oilers are fortunate to find a place where the cost is not prohibitive, move him.But that really is wishful thinking unless another GM makes a mistake.

    He signed the contract.He has to live with the consequences (healthy scratch) of not living up to it.

    I hope there is enough Lucic Phaneuf Seabrook Kessler Eriksson Okposo Neal contracts that there is a free buyout in next CBA

  26. Pescador says:

    Reja: I think number 1 priority for the new GM is moving Lucic this offseason no way they HS him way to toxic for the player team and fans.

    Toxic for the player & org, yes.
    I don’t know how it’s bad for the team as there should be 12 better forwards by the end of training camp.
    As for the fans, who gives a fuck
    Just win baby!

  27. Pescador says:

    godot10: It is too costly in terms of assets to move him.If the Oilers are fortunate to find a place where the cost is not prohibitive, move him.But that really is wishful thinking unless another GM makes a mistake.

    He signed the contract.He has to live with the consequences (healthy scratch) of not living up to it.

    You can’t play him.

    I agree with you,
    All signs point to a buyout next summer

  28. Gerta Rauss says:

    godot10: You can’t play him.

    If he wants to play pro hockey he’ll agree to waive and we’ll find him a nice warm place in Hershey LoL

  29. Reja says:

    Pescador: Toxic for the player & org, yes.
    I don’t know how it’s bad for the team as there should be 12 better forwards by the end of training camp.
    As for the fans, who gives a fuck
    Just win baby!

    Have you not worked in a toxic workplace before it’s the same with hockey no different.

  30. leadfarmer says:

    People complain about Marchand but Kadri is just as bad
    That is assault
    Must have been hard for Chara not to break him after that

  31. Oil2Oilers says:

    The Kardi v. Debrusk battle has been epic tonight. But Kardi wanting to have nothing to do with Chara is both wise and funny.

  32. Todd Macallan says:

    Kadri absolutely deserves at least 2 games for that cross check.

  33. leadfarmer says:

    Todd Macallan:
    Kadri absolutely deserves at least 2 games for that cross check.

    He’s a repeat offender
    He deserves a lot more
    But it’s the NHL

  34. Oil2Oilers says:

    Todd Macallan:
    Kadri absolutely deserves at least 2 games for that cross check.

    Agreed, but I don’t know if you are aloud to suspend Toronto players during the playoffs.

  35. Georgexs says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Kadri is so filthy he neutralizes Marchand so it’s even.

    My Leafs fandom lasted 2.5 hours. Out of respect for the host, I’ll make no comments on the Bruins.

    Go Oilers Go!

  36. Todd Macallan says:

    Oil2Oilers: Agreed, but I don’t know if you are aloud to suspend Toronto players during the playoffs.

    He got 3 games last yr in the playoffs, so here’s hoping!

  37. Bulging Twine says:

    I wonder how Puljujarvi would do in a game like this?

  38. Oil2Oilers says:

    Bulging Twine:
    I wonder how Puljujarvi would do in a game like this?

    He is not timid and tends to draw a lot of penalties, if the big boy got mad he might figure out his man strength and thrive.

  39. leadfarmer says:

    Brassard 2 min for getting punched by Smith

  40. Reja says:

    Hope Keith gets a agitator makes watching the games more interesting.

  41. Hitman77 says:

    Will McDavid’s post cruciate ligament ever heal 100% without surgery?

  42. Professor Q says:

    Hitman77:
    Will McDavid’s post cruciate ligament ever heal 100% without surgery?

    Just pump him full of HGH. He’ll be fine in no time.

  43. Professor Q says:

    Todd Macallan:
    Kadri absolutely deserves at least 2 games for that cross check.

    He absolutely deserves at least 3+, based on history. Should be 10, or more, though, but he won’t get that.

    DeBrusk also deserves a suspension for his intentional knee-on-knee hit, and the Pacioretty-esque hit on Marleau.

    This series is going to get ugly very quickly.

  44. YKOil says:

    Pescador: I agree with you,
    All signs point to a buyout next summer

    Buyout this summer:

    3.625 / 5.625 / 4.125 / 5.625 / 0.625 / 0.625 / 0.625 / 0.625

    Buyout 2020

    5.500 / 4.000 / 5.500 / 0.500 / 0.500 / 0.500

    Buyout 2021

    4.083 / 5.583 / 0.583 / 0.583

    This is just ugly. Just tell his agent to fish for a deal and let him know we’ll retain $3 million per year and we’ll even do it AFTER the July 1 bonus is paid.

    Crazy how bad that is.

  45. Georgexs says:

    JimmyV1965: Even for guys like me who are willing to trade 8OV, we have to think long term. It’s doubtful we make the playoffs next year even with significant changes. What’s realistic? Swap out the three worst players for three better players. That still leaves major holes.

    Last time we made the playoffs, we made a 33 point jump in the standings.

    Making the playoffs next season would mean a 16 point jump (to be relatively safe) to get us to 95.

    That’s not so bad. 12 teams have made a jump that big or better to reach the playoffs in the past 3 seasons. This year, we had 5 new teams in the playoffs. We’ve had 7 new teams in each of the previous two seasons.

    Here are the 12 teams making a jump of 16 or more points.

    2018-NYI, +23
    2018-CGY, +23
    2018-CAR, +16
    2017-COL, +47
    2017-WPG, +27
    2017-NJD, +27
    2017-TBL, +19
    2016-EDM, +33
    2016-CBJ, +32
    2016-TOR, +26
    2016-MTL, +21
    2016-CGY, +17

    There are lots of different ways to get there as you can see from above.

    CMD has already done it once. So we already have a template.

  46. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    Reja: Have you not worked in a toxic workplace before it’s the same with hockey no different.

    Yup. A toxic workplace is where undeserving, entitled individuals are gifted positions while those that are better qualified are denied opportunities for advancement.

    So yes, Lucic needs to sit.

  47. Derek says:

    Calgary vs Colorado doesn’t really look like a 1 seed vs an 8. Someone please tell me the Flames aren’t actually that good and everything is going to be ok. Being an Edmonton fan has been hard enough these past 3 decades, the last thing I need is a good Calgary team while I live in Calgary.

  48. Derek says:

    Nieto scores shorthanded right after I post. Thank you Connor.

  49. Bulging Twine says:

    Brodie really struggling

  50. OriginalPouzar says:

    Condors clinched the division tonight.

    Russell and Joe G assisted on a goal by the other (Joe G getting a second goal and setting a franchise record for goals).

    Benson from Marody and Currie, no surprise.

    Yamamoto still out with his ankle.

    The beauty season continues.

  51. Nit64 says:

    Hitman77:
    Will McDavid’s post cruciate ligament ever heal 100% without surgery?

    https://orthoinfo.aaos.org/en/diseases–conditions/posterior-cruciate-ligament-injuries/

    “Injuries to the posterior cruciate ligament are not as common as other knee ligament injuries. In fact, they are often subtle and more difficult to evaluate than other ligament injuries in the knee.”

    “Many times a posterior cruciate ligament injury occurs along with injuries to other structures in the knee such as cartilage, other ligaments, and bone.”

    “Posterior cruciate ligament tears tend to be partial tears with the potential to heal on their own. People who have injured just their posterior cruciate ligaments are usually able to return to sports without knee stability problems.”

    We Wait.

  52. Old Timer says:

    Agree that Lucic should sit as a HS. Kadri should also sit due to a suspension. Probably for 5-7 games given he is a repeat offender and a world class slime ball..

  53. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pescador: I am assuming that no other org is willing to take on the albatross that is Lucic’s contract.
    I would add no sweetners beyond a previously drafted player that wasn’t going to sign here anyway or a later round pick.
    I suppose he is the 4th line LW until further notice.

    I am one of the few that won’t bleed too Material of an asset to dispose of the contract.

  54. OriginalPouzar says:

    Decidedly Skeptical Fan: Who cares, healthy scratch him anyway … addition by subtraction.

    The lineup I suggested earlier healthy scratched him.

    I was merely responding to the premise of it leading to us getting out of the contract which I don’t believe is a realistic option.

  55. JimmyV1965 says:

    ArmchairGM: Also, Lucic and Benson both play LW, so it’s unlikely that they will be together much. Panik is a veteran, he should be able to play on the 3rd line without much drop off in production,to put a rookie with Cave and Carr is certainly not helping his development at all.

    The thing is if you put him on the second line with someone like Panik or Chiasson or whatever warm body you insert there, your not setting him up to be successful. The expectations would be that he delivers offfence. Kinda like we did with Yama and JP. It’s different if you have a legit top six player on that line. Otherwise, he should bat lower in the order where the competition is weaker and the expectations are lower. IMO.

  56. OriginalPouzar says:

    Gerta Rauss: It’s a reach for sure, but you never know with guys that already have millions and millions

    Kovalchuk walked away from millions in Jersey(granted, that was to make millions in the KHL)

    Patrick Berglund’s contract was terminated by Buffalo this year-the details are sketchy(failure to report to practice) but Berglund made that decision to walk away from almost $10m

    It’s not going to happen, but it can’t be dismissed outright

    Assming Lucic did walk away from his Oilers contract, I could see an NHL team signing him to another NHL contract for a fraction of his current deal

    It depends on his motivation to play NHL hockey

    I think it can be fairly easily dismissed. I think it’s a rare occasion which someone will walk away from over $10M even those that have made millions.

    You were able to come up with one scenario and it was related to mental health issues and the player likely felt it was important for life.

  57. slopitch says:

    leadfarmer:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    One thing that helps the wall of text is you if have the top legend move down as you scroll down the page.If you are off the top page you look at the number and have to scroll all the way back up to make sure that is the right column you are looking at

    Curious why Klef and Larsson suck against the middle toughs

    Good suggestion. Feature request submitted. S/b live by morn!

  58. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: Only until the expansion draft, when he will have to be bought out as an out from being forced to protect him.

    Healthy scratching Lucic is the right thing to do.

    I think he would waive his NMC for the expansion draft.

    SEA won’t take him but him waiting would get rid of the must-protect.

  59. Reja says:

    Decidedly Skeptical Fan: Yup. A toxic workplace is where undeserving, entitled individuals are gifted positions while those that are better qualified are denied opportunities for advancement.

    So yes, Lucic needs to sit.

    Not going to happen

  60. YKOil says:

    OriginalPouzar: I am one of the few that won’t bleed too Material of an asset to dispose of the contract.

    Where I have ended up too. Would rather just bleed cash – it’s what the team is doing now anyways. Would give up a future 3rd and a ‘b’ level prospect as part of the deal but no 1st rounders and if it’s a 2nd rounder there is a pick flip involved (their 3rd for our 2nd kind of thing).

    Kadri will get 2 games. Debrusk should get a game for the knee.

    Re: HS discussion, unless the fancy stats prove me wrong, would not give Lucic any more powerplay time at the very least. 4th line guy all the way.

  61. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar: I think he would waive his NMC for the expansion draft.

    SEA won’t take him but him waiting would get rid of the must-protect.

    I think he would waive practically anywhere in the league probably pay for his own plane ticket as well.

  62. oilersfan says:

    Stauffer said he didn’t think Lucic would waive to go to ottawa

  63. flyfish1168 says:

    oilersfan:
    Stauffer said he didn’t think Lucic would waive to go to ottawa

    Looking for US city. Maybe NYR

  64. JimmyV1965 says:

    Georgexs: Last time we made the playoffs, we made a 33 point jump in the standings.

    Making the playoffs next season would mean a 16 point jump (to be relatively safe) to get us to 95.

    That’s not so bad. 12 teams have made a jump that big or better to reach the playoffs in the past 3 seasons. This year, we had 5 new teams in the playoffs. We’ve had 7 new teams in each of the previous two seasons.

    Here are the 12 teams making a jump of 16 or more points.

    2018-NYI, +23
    2018-CGY, +23
    2018-CAR, +16
    2017-COL, +47
    2017-WPG, +27
    2017-NJD, +27
    2017-TBL, +19
    2016-EDM, +33
    2016-CBJ, +32
    2016-TOR, +26
    2016-MTL, +21
    2016-CGY, +17

    There are lots of different ways to get there as you can see from above.

    CMD has already done it once. So we already have a template.

    I want to believe, but I’m just not feeling it – at all. Hopefully I feel different in October.

  65. JimmyV1965 says:

    oilersfan:
    Stauffer said he didn’t think Lucic would waive to go to ottawa

    I believe this. It’s the one place where the outlook is much worse than ours. It may be the only team he refuses to waive to.

  66. YKOil says:

    flyfish1168: Looking for US city. Maybe NYR

    He is delusional then. Rangers GM is a smart one, would want key asset to come with Lucic. Would rather press box and 4th line him.

  67. Bulging Twine says:

    Wow Colorado is fun to watch when they are playing like this.
    Absolutely flying!

  68. flyfish1168 says:

    YKOil: He is delusional then.Rangers GM is a smart one, would want key asset to come with Lucic.Would rather press box and 4th line him.

    I was just looking for teams that need to get to the CAP floor. Nothing else to read into this.

  69. flyfish1168 says:

    Yahoo Johny is a diver.

  70. Bulging Twine says:

    injustice
    Calgary being outplayed and winning

  71. Gerta Rauss says:

    hahahahaha….COL ties it with 2 min to go

    I hate Mike Smith

  72. Munny says:

    Georgexs,

    Sorry Georges, I was looking for the under 30s who did it. I wasn’t very clear.

    I wouldn’t mind seeing the dataset. Thank you.

  73. Munny says:

    Gerta Rauss: I hate Mike Smith

    That’s the most polite way you’ve said it in a while, lol.

  74. Munny says:

    New Improved Darkness: I recently encountered someone distinguishing persistence from tenacity: telemarketers are persistent, Nike is tenacious.

    Data can have persistence. Other things too. Tenacious seems to require a mind. It’s a quality of character.

    Lol, and then they show the Tonelli highlight.

  75. Bulging Twine says:

    Bakersfield face Pavel Francouz in the playoffs. The other KHL signing

  76. Gerta Rauss says:

    5 bell save by Grubauer at one end and the rush goes the other way and Mckinnon wins it on OT

  77. Munny says:

    Re: From Milan to Minsk…

    Lucic has already requested a trade, .. so one would think he wouldn’t ixnay a trade if it came along.

    Spector, source of the above, never said whether he wasn’t traded because he couldn’t be or because Chia didn’t want to for what he was getting offered/forced into..

    If he is tradeable, and of course the incoming regime owes no loyalty to Lucic, the past GM’s errors, or optics w.r.t. either, then he will be gone this summer. There is no doubt the incoming regime will consider it Mission One. It gives them the most flexibility. They will test the waters. If he is still here at camp, heck in August, the Oil are hooped.

    And the new regime needs to be on this like yesterday. The longer this Lucic drama plays out, the more difficult it will be for incoming GM to re-make the roster. And the more desperate.

  78. Reja says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    5 bell save by Grubauer at one end and the rush goes the other way and Mckinnon wins it on OT

    Nathan top shelf where Grandma keeps the cookie jar.

  79. Admiral Ackbar says:

    Flames lose. Leafs lose. Kari to be suspended. All is right in the world.

  80. Reja says:

    flyfish1168:
    Yahoo Johny is a diver.

    Works in the regular season not so much in the playoffs.

  81. Munny says:

    The Rantanen-Mackinnon pairing might be as good as Drai-McDavid. Rantanen is an absolute force.

    And I think Landeskog is better than Nuge, if you wanna go power v. power.

    We don’t have a Dman as offensively skilled as Barrie, till Bouchard arrives.

    And they have two goalies better than our starter.

    They have the same depth issues, but…

    There are depth issues and then there are Depth Oil issues.

  82. Munny says:

    Kadri finally going to get what he deserves.

  83. Munny says:

    Could Katz buy a KHL team to offer Lucic a Kovalchuk contract?

    Yes, I’ve been drinking.

    But hey, does that actually cross any League rules?

  84. YKOil says:

    Munny:
    Could Katz buy a KHL team to offer Lucic a Kovalchuk contract?

    Yes, I’ve been drinking. But hey, does that actually cross any League rules?

    Probably. But, hypothetically speaking, if Katz were to lose $16 million or so in a high stakes poker game to a buddy who happens to own a euro-based hockey team, would Lucic and family be up for a European vacation?

    That would be hilarious really.

    I like Lucic, I really do. It isn’t his fault. Team signed a contract and team pays on contract. Fair enough. F&*k Chiarelli.

    I really, really hope Bruins bashing the Leafs and Jets/Blues tilt helps open the door on a Lucic trade. Guy still hits.

  85. Munny says:

    YKOil: I like Lucic, I really do. It isn’t his fault. Team signed a contract and team pays on contract. Fair enough

    I do too actually. The fall-off in his hands has been disappointing.

    I think he actually is trade-able. The only question is cost/return. And the closer to the draft the easier. Timing helps.

    But our esteemed President, who apparently wears none of the failures of the past because he is a mastermind, is on a different timeline…

  86. RonnieB says:

    If the Oilers do not hire a POHO, would the new GM report to the VP of HO, Craig MacTavish ?

  87. Munny says:

    Does KG have the mandate to improve the team while the hiring process takes place?

    Can he move material pieces? Can he seek out trades?

    Does he have the greenlight to find a trade for Lucic?

    Or do they want him to leave things intact for the new guy? Not eff stuff up worse.

    I didn’t see the PC, was any of this covered?

  88. Rebillled says:

    Munny,

    Kadri is very dumb.

    Probably 7 games.

    MacKinnon dismantles. Book it,

  89. Gerta Rauss says:

    Munny,

    I think Bobby was asked if there were any imminent personnel changes…I took this question as more of a MacTavish/Howson type of changes(I could be mistaken here)

    Bobby did say specifically that things were going to remain status quo so the new guy could judge the landscape in its current iteration, and then make any changes he saw fit from that point forward

    I’m uncertain if the question/answer pertained to the roster

    I think the longer this thing drags out it’s in their best interest to have somebody with their hand on the rudder, they can’t sit on their hands until they hire someone

  90. Munny says:

    Another theory…

    If BobbyNic hires a POHO, that person hires a GM. Bobby apparently wants that call. Or has been told to fix it (only Gord knows why him). So he will be forced to offer POHO to the GM candidates. What other option is there? He would have sold that “strategy” internally as a hook for catching a great fish, if the idea came from him.

    And yet POHO will come with the ridiculous caveat that the existing management structure and all its success stays intact.

    You get to run the show you just can’t cast it. Except coach of course.

  91. Rebillled says:

    Munny,

    Was Nicholson responsible for the Barzal deal? I remember someone saying it. Pressuring Chia into it? I’m drunk too so…

  92. Munny says:

    Gerta Rauss,

    Thanks, Gerta.

    Not sure these guys always figure out their best interest. I have no idea of the office internals but they don’t seem to surround themselves with dissenting opinions… which makes one wonder whether they analyze anything at all or are they just following some pre-conceived template, damn the torpedoes…

  93. maudite says:

    It’s a good thing that I’m not a star. You don’t know how lucky you are…

    Rather ominous no?

  94. OriginalPouzar says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    Munny,

    I think Bobby was asked if there were any imminent personnel changes…I took this question as more of a MacTavish/Howson type of changes(I could be mistaken here)

    Bobby did say specifically that things were going to remain status quo so the new guy could judge the landscape in its current iteration, and then make any changes he saw fit from that point forward

    I’m uncertain if the question/answer pertained to the roster

    I think the longer this thing drags out it’s in their best interest to have somebody with their hand on the rudder, they can’t sit on their hands until they hire someone

    I remember that question and answer and I’m quite certain it was in response to Gregor asking about the pro scouts and similar type positions – Gregor is obsessed with the pro scounts.

    It was not made in relations to player personnel or “upper management”.

  95. Professor Q says:

    Munny:
    The Rantanen-Mackinnon pairing might be as good as Drai-McDavid.Rantanen is an absolute force.

    And I think Landeskog is better than Nuge, if you wanna go power v. power.

    We don’t have a Dman as offensively skilled as Barrie, till Bouchard arrives.

    And they have two goalies better than our starter.

    They have the same depth issues, but…

    There are depth issues and then there are Depth Oil issues.

    McDavid and Drai are definitely much better than MacKinnon and Rantanen.

    Nuge was robbed by Landeskog in the rookie scoring title race and I’m still pissed about that. Same amount of points. 20 fewer games. Somehow that meant he was worse?!

  96. flyfish1168 says:

    I’m not sure if he is a UFA or his rights is own by someone. But I would like to bring Mikhail Grigorenko back to the NHL and see if he can find success now that he is a little more mature.

  97. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georgexs,

    If you think all of that controlling is going to uncover hidden gems, great.

    I think it’s going to get me in trouble because it’s going to take me into smaller and smaller samples where strange things happen. It’s hard enough to make clear statements about most players; it’s harder still to base those statements on something other than their full body of work.

    This is a reasonable fear.

    We have found that fancystats start to “normalize” after 150 of player pairs being together and after 300 the correlation with the results at 300 min with the results at the end of the season is very high (~.9)

    Scoring takes longer to normalize, but it does as well, so I’m not afraid of using ~300+ minute samples sizes when trying to determine how a player scores with various qualities of team mates.

    Quality of Team mate is the single most important factor when evaluating a player’s results. Coaches use of the player is 2nd.

    Looking at “the whole body of work” can cause you to mix different usages of the player with different key team mates and it won’t give you the detailed information needed to evaluate players imo.

    Sure, PPG reflects opportunity. But opportunity reflects what a coach thinks of a player. And what a coach thinks of a player is useful information on how that player will do under that coach.

    I agree with this and most often the coach is right.

    Some coaches don’t trust younger players much and some players are “stuck” behind better players in terms of getting opportunity to play with the best players. This will affect their results and these situations need to be identified.

    If a GM trades for a player because the GM think he’s a hidden gem, it’s still up to the HC to use the new player in a way that maximizes his potential and to stick with him through inevitable adversity. The problem for the HC is that he has a lot of mouths to feed and limited opportunity to give them. And if he can’t win with the choices he’s making, his own goose is cooked. So the new player is in no way guaranteed of getting more or longer opportunity with his new team. The numbers I’ve been posting suggest that he’s likely to get less because players are often lagging their career numbers when switching teams.

    Absolutely and a critical point.

    There is no use in spending assets as a GM on a player if a coach isn’t going to use him right.

    That is why HC being a part of the player acquisition process and the GM and Coach sharing the same philosophy is crucial to success as a group.

    The data shows me that current PPG is the most reliable predictor of future offensive performance for a forward, whether you measure future performance as PPG or 5v5 P60 or all sits P60. It’s not very reliable (the correlations are relatively low) but it’s the MOST reliable. 5v5 P60, for example, has a super weak correlation (under 0.4) this season to last for any forward who scored 1.5 or above last season.

    PPG accounts for all of a player’s ice time (larger sample) and it accounts for the opportunity he HAS been given which tells us a fair bit, apparently, of the opportunities he WILL be given.

    I’d have to see the data on how much better ppg is to comment.

    I don’t doubt that when you look at the whole population that you are right, but my goal is to find players who look less than what they actually are when tradition measures (like ppg)


    Also, Ricki taught me something important last season when he said focusing exclusively on rates could get you in trouble if you’re dealing with players who get injured. Rates matter but total production matters too because if a productive player’s not on the ice, the team is icing a less productive player. It’s hard to get everything into the picture though.

    I agree with this and like to use the last 3 seasons of data, weighting them 20%, 30% and 50%.

    Key metrics that I look at are scoring with various team mates and how the player affects scoring rates of others.

    I also like to look at influence on goal share as winning that battle means everything. There are point producers who are drags on goal share for various reasons and those players need to be avoided.


    One last point, I think that there is a lot of group think when it comes to how HC’s view players. Most of them make safe choices. If they were dealt a struggling 3C they’ll treat him like a struggling 3C. The player will have a very narrow window of opportunity to change the HC’s mind. Which means he has to get lucky with the opportunity he’s given. Maroon managed it here. Strome didn’t. But, overall, once a player gets a reputation, the reputation travels with the player.

    I agree with this as well.


    Trading for hidden gems is an enormously risky way to build a team depending on what you’re willing to pay for those gems. You need buy-in at all parts of the org. and you still have to get lucky. You should pay rock bottom prices for what you think are hidden gems. Because you’re likely buying rocks.

    No question about that.

    Trading for gems is for fleshing out the roster where the amateur drafting/developing part of the org hasn’t produced players that are needed (or in EDM’s case have been pissed away)

    Its one way of adding to the roster, not the only way.

    Also, if you are trying to find undervalued gems then by definition you are not spending a lot to acquire them.

    In regards to Ehlers there is so much value in the player vis a vis his scoring and GF% rates with top 6 players, his results of the better player being even better when with him, his age and his contract length and cap hit that I think #8 + JP would be a steal and that #8 + JP + Jones would be a reasonable cost and still value.

    This transaction is certainly at the very high end of “finding gems” as most of the time you’re trying to find a Jason Demers, Nino Niederreiter, Max Domi, Nick Jensen type deals where you don’t actually pay much.

  98. London Jon says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Trading for hidden gems is insane.

    The other club knows the player absolutely back to front from an awful lot of observations, perspectives and data points. And you are making a bet that you know him better…

    Case in point Brandon manning and Ryan spooner. The whole league knew manning was done and the spooner was a massive Hail Mary to save PCs job. Sigh…

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