Roll Your Own

by Lowetide

It’s hard enough to suss out a team’s summer list of priorities when a general manager is in place. Without a general manager indicating his priorities? Well. It’s not mission impossible, but you can see it from there. Let’s have a lash.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group.INSANE NEW OFFER IS HERE!

  • New Lowetide: How high can these Condors fly?
  • Lowetide: Ron Hextall’s patient approach as GM would be shock to Oilers’ system
  • Jonathan Willis: Michael Futa’s success at the NHL Draft makes him a credible GM candidate for the Oilers
  • Lowetide: The Oilers possible summer trade pieces, and which longtime players might be saying goodbye.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ten prospects likely to be available when the Oilers make their first-round pick.
  • Jonathan Willis: Bob Nicholson mostly says the right things, but stalls on making changes to the Oilers.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The pressure’s squarely on Bob Nicholson to make right GM hire for Oilers.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers Report Cards: Few passing grades remain in season full of failure.
  • Lowetide: How winning the draft lottery and drafting Jack Hughes could transform the Oilers.
  • Lowetide: The Oilers have a trio of Condors blue pushing and all three are tracking well. How does this group compare to the Petry, Chorney, Wild college men from a decade ago?
  • Jonathan Willis: Connor McDavid’s frustration should be seen by the Oilers as a warning of possible disaster.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers have another problem to solve: Lifting the cloud over a clearly frustrated Connor McDavid
  • Lowetide: What Mark Hunter’s draft record in Toronto means for his Oilers GM candidacy.
  • Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers, the republic of Finland and the 2019 draft.
  • Lowetide: The Oilers made a rare move and shopped the QMJHL at the 2018 draft. It could happen again.
  • Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers draft early, the WHL is loaded and there’s a lot of history.
  • Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers and the OHL.

ABOUT THE GM

We are flying blind. The new man may say “we need a goalie!” and we’re off in that direction. The new general manager could spend $6 million on Robin Lehner or trade for Juuse Saros and Edmonton will have a $4.5 million backup. It’s important to remember everyone not named Connor McDraisaitl-Hopkins among forwards is vulnerable, with a lot uncertain on blue and in goal.

AREAS OF STRENGTH

Again it depends on general manager and coach, but if the organization chooses an “up the middle” path, Edmonton isn’t far from balance.

I like this group a lot. The center four lack a righty, but Brodziak didn’t help the PK so unless someone else emerges that’s the best quartet. The left side of the blue is quality, veteran and balanced, while the right side brings a tough veteran who gives no quarter. Now, the new GM might trade one of these men, but we’re going to assume this is the cluster’s inner circle.

THE GAUNTLET

Now comes the difficult part of the roster. There are good players who can be added to this group, as well as quality youngsters who have earned the right to compete for NHL jobs. There are also men with cap hits that sewer the ability for the new GM to wheel. Let’s add the good players, the best of the youngsters and the deals that appear to be unavoidable.

There’s about $10 million left and a No. 1 LW, No. 1 RW, No. 14F, No. 7D and No. 2 goalie to add to this group. Now, the “group” is fatally flawed, and that’s the big part of the problem.

Among the forwards eligible for buyout, who is likely to be the most effective next season compared to the cap relief purchased for 2019-20?

Same thing, with defencemen:

Buying out Russell isn’t something the Oilers would do, as the disaster that awaits them in year two is Lucician. So, if the Oilers buyout Lucic and Sekera, the savings is $5,375,000 and that’s most or all of Brett Connolly. The team would need to rely on some kids, but they would be relying on a group who showed they were quality in the AHL this season.

I’m buying three free agents (Connolly, Panik, Elliott), I’m sure you’ll have your own favourites. This roster relies on the three best Condors from this season (Benson, Marody, Jones) and that’s as it should be year to year.

I understand the defense is no better, in fact without Sekera that third pairing is far less impressive. For me, all of the external options are just too damned expensive. It’s like trading for a center. No sir. Evan Bouchard, Joel Persson, Ethan Bear, the right side will be solved in due time, internally. In the words of the great philosopher Mel McDaniel Roll Your Own. I’ll have an article up at The Athletic on the Condors later today.

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J-Bo

The problem is, you cant buy out Lucic. It is just too horrible long term. One would think Lucic at 1/2 salary retained and a sweetener is doable somewhere to unload the contract. No?

Concur

I do not believe buying out Sekera is a good option. The defense you have listed is poorer than last year without him. Kris Russel has trade value (to someone). He is the one that has to leave to free up cap space. There is no way I would be giving up Sekera, someone who has a positive impact on the team.

leadfarmer

Maybe the Leafs will get sick of getting pushed around and will trade Zaitsev for Lucic if we make the cap hit even by retention or trading someone like Khaira to Arizona to retain the cap difference
What a mess
No playoffs next year either

Bryan

Those games last night were nasty. Big boy hockey in the playoffs so far. Hopefully this summer there will be a GM who thinks his team was pushed around too much and will bite on Lucic with some salary retained.

Cassandra

Considering it was against the Bruins, Kadri shouldn’t get anything for that hit. First, it was against the Bruins who employ a filthy animal who long ago should have been kicked out of the league. Second, it wasn’t nearly as bad as I was expecting considering all the talk.

The league is a complete joke. They don’t enforce the rules which allowed the Bruins to steal an undeserved Cup from Vancouver, and then they arbitrarily suspend some players and not others. And when they do suspend players it is for random amounts of time.

Bryan

Concur:
I do not believe buying out Sekera is a good option.The defense you have listed is poorer than last year without him.Kris Russel has trade value (to someone).He is the one that has to leave to free up cap space.There is no way I would be giving up Sekera, someone who has a positive impact on the team.

Definitely. I was amazed at how well Sekera played considering the severity of his injuries and how much time he had missed. If he can have a good summer of training he should be a valuable asset again.

Bryan

The reffing last night in Boston was awful. You didn’t have to be Nostradamus to see that something very unpleasant was going to happen with the way the game was allowed to escalate. There was a lot of filthy play on both sides but there’s no doubt that the Bruins were leading the parade. Kadri is definitely at least done for this series though. He had plenty of time to think about his actions before he hit Debrusk and he has too many very similar plays on his rap sheet. I can understand why he was seeing red at the time but it doesn’t excuse what he did. He’s going to be eating a lot of popcorn.

Professor Q

Bryan,

Kadri should be gone, as should DeBrusk.

Possibly so should Tavares and McAvoy.

The Muzzin hit on Krug should have been a boarding call. Why did his arms go that far up after the hit, anyway? Yes, it was shoulder to shoulder at first, but he put some extra force into it at a dangerous distance from the boards…

But the referees and officials have no accountability whatsoever.

Jaxon

I think you trade Russell and maybe even retain $500K to $1M if it gets you a better return. Spend $5M on Tyler Myers. That would be a very strong D.
Klefbom – Larsson
Nurse – Myers
Sekera/Jones/Lagesson – Benning/Bear/Bouchard/Persson

who

I like your lineup LT.
I would switch Benson and Panik and I have no idea who J-S Dea is?
Two questions about the buyouts.
1. What do you do the next year when Lucic costs you 2 million more?
2. Couldn’t you just give Sekera away? Even if you had to retain 1 to 2 million?

Bryan

Professor Q:
Bryan,

Kadri should be gone, as should DeBrusk.

Possibly so should Tavares and McAvoy.

But the referees and officials have no accountability whatsoever.

Sam Bennett with a head shot on Cole right in front of the ref last night too. Everything is happening at warp speed in the playoffs but they need to find more consistency with the calls.

buck yoakam

thats it!…Lucic 1m retained for Kadri…let Milan loose on his old team next year…

Jaxon

I watched Raphael Lavoie highlights last night. Wow, what a player. Big, fast, scoring player that drives to the net and cycles like crazy. Great shooter, great passer. But his speed for a 6’4″player is what impresses me most and the fact that he keeps moving and is very active always looking for spots to get open. I hope Edmonton drafts him. He’s played both wings and centre this season. Big, speedy Sniper sounds like a perfect fit for either McDavid or Draisaitl. It sounds like he is also one of the more NHL ready players as well with his speed, size, hockey sense, and mobility. I’m not really sure why he isn’t ranked higher. Some of it may be bias against the Q.

Professor Q

Jaxon,

Apparently he’s a bit older? At least from what I gather from the complaints in here. Yet I really do find Lavoie a highly intriguing prospect for Edmonton.

flyfish1168

I’m not sure if he is a UFA or his rights is own by someone. But I would like to bring Mikhail Grigorenko back to the NHL and see if he can find success now that he is a little more mature.

Woodguy v2.0

@PuckIQ

Small but important update done on the site this morning:

Column headers are now “sticky” and stay on screen as you scroll down.

Column determining the player sort is now highlighted.

Stick tap to posters Leadfarmer, ArmchairGM and @life_timely for the suggestion.

https://twitter.com/PuckIQ/status/1117447342267854848

razor

I’d rather buy out Lucic and Gagner rather than Sekera.. Sekera is just way too valuable to this team when healthy. Exhibit A was how much he settled down the defence when he was placed on third pair. Oilers need to stop the bleeding RE: Goals against just as much as they need support scoring, and Sekera helps tremendously with that.

Ice Sage

About a week early for Rolling your Own (#420), LT!
but that’s the Oilers, a week early and a dollar (or 10 millions of them) short.

Good playoffs so far, lots of script re-writes.

fifthcartel

I think they have to improve the defence. Kris Russell at 32 on 2RD doesn’t inspire confidence, though I really like the left side, the right side is a big weakness. I know it’ll be expensive and Bouchard and co. are coming but that seems like a weakness waiting to be exploited by other teams.

Forward is concerning but I feel like the defence is being overlooked.

Paulie

An observation, not trying to pick a fight here. Lucic gets a lot of love. In 2017 Eberle makes a very soft play against the Ducks in the playoffs, a goal against results, and then everyone from management to fans wan’ts to run him out of town. Lucic hasn’t made a play in two years, fans still love him and pull for him, and we think we can trade him as long as we retain some salary. Why would anyone want a replacement level player for $3MM per yr over 4 yrs?

dustrock

Canada U-18 warmup today won 6-5 against Belarus.

Newhook with hat trick including OT winner. Krebs with 1+1. Cozens with 3A.

dustrock

Anyone think they’ll actually tell us why Lucic has been walking around with a cast and crutches?

Réal Goudenyéu

Puck moving D or bust.

Darth Tu

dustrock,

Sympathy pains for McDavid?

Darth Tu

If Gretz is in charge the lineup probably looks something like this to start the season:

Drai – McD – Kassian
Khaira – Nuge – Gagner
Benson – Marody – Currie
Lucic – Cave – Pool Party (unless he get’s traded)

Klefbom – Larsson
Nurse – Benning
Sekera – Bouchard

Koskinen
Elliot (or some other free agent)

That’s not what I would do, but that’s what’s probably happening if Keith is in charge come the start of the season. Flip Benson and Khaira around depending on who is HC as well.

russ99

Full on sell mode for lesser players we aren’t bringing back, get some extra picks.

Benning for Brown seems like it’s going to happen at some point.

Gagner is useful so I’d rather not buy out. If we can make a trade so be it.

I’d also trade Puljujarvi’s rights and the #8 for an NHL player and a low first/high second.

No on bringing back Chiasson.

I’d try to move Kassian if we can get cap relief. He’s going into the last year of his deal.

Sekera and Russell’s NMCs decrease on July 1, Sekera’s NMC downgrades more (he lists 15 team he can be traded to) so he will be more tradeable then. I’d keep Russell (he lists 10 teams he can be traded to, goes up to 15 next July) until next deadline when his final year salary is quite small and we could get back a decent asset.

Lucic is tricky, he may be tradable (yet he still has to accept a trade) with salary retained but not until after the bonus vests on July 1. Also buyout window is closed after the end of June, so if there are no takers, we’d need to offer a player like Khaira arbitration to open a second buyout window.

I guess it comes down to Katz. Would he just buy him out in the first window to not have to pay the bonus, even if it means more cap flexibility from a trade vs. the nasty 2nd and 3rd year of the buyout?

I’d suspect we’d send out feelers for a deal well before July first to see what the market is, and if there’s room for a deal.

russ99

dustrock,

That’s quite worrisome. No trade or buyout if he’s hurt.

McNuge93

Bryan: Definitely.I was amazed at how well Sekera played considering the severity of his injuries and how much time he had missed.If he can have a good summer of training he should bea valuable asset again.

Agree with this. Our defence is better with Sekera back. If we could upgrade on Russell either this summer or next that would be a significant improvement. Ideally you trade Lucic with salary retained. Easier said than done but that would be a new GM’s statement that he can and will turn this team around.

Rube Foster

flyfish1168:
I’m not sure if he is a UFA or his rights is own by someone. But I would like to bring Mikhail Grigorenko back to the NHL and see if he can find success now that he is a little more mature.

I think he has another year left in the KHL, but I would be all over some Mickey G!
At the right price it he might be able to fit into our top six. At worst, he could give us some quality depth and versatility in the bottom six.
Grigorenko is the type of player the new GM needs to target.

innercitysmytty

leadfarmer,

Thing is a competent and creative GM along with a strong analytics, pro scouting and cap management team could fix many of our issues and have us at least competitive in year one and fix the rest in year two. I don’t hold out hope that the org makes the right hires to do this.

Woodguy v2.0

Georgexs,

Responded to you in the previous thread.

innercitysmytty

Paulie,

Paulie,

Paulie,

russ99,

But there’s a third possibility and that’s the Ferrence route.

Melvis

Woodguy v2.0:
@PuckIQ


Small but important update done on the site this morning:

Column headers are now “sticky” and stay on screen as you scroll down.

Column determining the player sort is now highlighted.

Stick tap to posters Leadfarmer, ArmchairGM and @life_timely for the suggestion.

https://twitter.com/PuckIQ/status/1117447342267854848

Artwise, I’ve put more than thirty years into aiming at something ineffable. So here I am up to my neck in hockey data…something along the lines of a polar opposite. Jeez.

What a great job and service you and your crew have provided!

leadfarmer

Woodguy v2.0,

That was quick
Do you have GMoney locked in your basement?

Reja

Cassandra:
Considering it was against the Bruins, Kadri shouldn’t get anything for that hit.First, it was against the Bruins who employ a filthy animal who long ago should have been kicked out of the league.Second, it wasn’t nearly as bad as I was expecting considering all the talk.

The league is a complete joke.They don’t enforce the rules which allowed the Bruins to steal an undeserved Cup from Vancouver, and then they arbitrarily suspend some players and not others.And when they do suspend players it is for random amounts of time.

From what I recall it was Horton getting completely plastered in game 3 essentially ending his career. Never poke the Bear.

leadfarmer

Woodguy v2.0,

Do you guys have the ability to sort out the elite comp Toi in first 30 seconds of the elite shift?
We know through Dellows work that teams shelter some pairings by putting them out there after 30 seconds so while it seems that they are playing against elites at that point in there shift those elites are getting tired and tend to not be so elite and are looking more for a line change

Reja

Paulie:
An observation, not trying to pick a fight here. Lucic gets a lot of love. In 2017 Eberle makes a very soft play against the Ducks in the playoffs, a goal against results, and then everyone from management to fans wan’ts to run him out of town. Lucic hasn’t made a play in two years, fans still love him and pull for him, and we think we can trade him as long as we retain some salary. Why would anyone want a replacement level player for $3MM per yr over 4 yrs?

Did you not watch the games yesterday.

leadfarmer

Eberle with another
On the ice for 7/8 isles goals this postseason
He took the Trotz dip this season but Is on fire this postseason

leadfarmer

Jack Johnson J Schultz pairing
Rutherford is too funny

JimmyV1965

For the love of everything decent, I hope the new GM doesn’t think he’s signing free agents and solving this team’s problems. Panik and Connolly are just different versions of Benoit Pouliot. They’re fine players at bargains prices, but if you’re giving these guys term and money you’re looking at another buyout in two years. We are infinitely better off taking the est. $7.5 mill and trading for a legit top six winger.

Gerta Rauss

Well this Masters just got exciting

JimmyV1965

We might not be able to move Lucic, but I suspect teams will be beating down the door for Kassian. He’s maybe the one player we can realistically move whose trade value gets us more in return.

Professor Q

What changed in the week between when Nicholson said he was hiring a POHO first, then a GM, and when he said that he wasn’t hiring one at all?

It seems like too quick of a turnaround, and it really is too unfortunate with Krueger now available.

godot10

The new GM should NOT be shopping in the UFA bin for substantial players. He should be shopping in the salary cap dump bin.

Look for forwards with one or two years left on their contracts that teams want to get rid of, rather than having to offer term to UFA’s, with the McDavid salary scale shift now fully in place.

flyfish1168

Jordan Eberle Playoff leading scorer