Value Contracts

In the cap NHL, a player who can fill an important role (top six F, No. 3 C, top 4D, starting goalie) is worth his weight in gold. Edmonton’s 2019-20 value contracts are neither abundant or obvious, making the season in Bakersfield even more important. Edmonton needs value contracts, how many Condors can convert to the NHL?

I like to use NHLE’s to estimate quality, and the Oilers have been improving over recent seasons. Last year, there were six forwards over 30 NHLE, as well as two defensemen. How many this year?

THE ATHLETIC

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group.INSANE NEW OFFER IS HERE!

  • New LowetideHow high can these Condors fly?
  • Lowetide: Ron Hextall’s patient approach as GM would be shock to Oilers’ system
  • Jonathan Willis: Michael Futa’s success at the NHL Draft makes him a credible GM candidate for the Oilers
  • Lowetide: The Oilers possible summer trade pieces, and which longtime players might be saying goodbye.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ten prospects likely to be available when the Oilers make their first-round pick.
  • Jonathan Willis: Bob Nicholson mostly says the right things, but stalls on making changes to the Oilers.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The pressure’s squarely on Bob Nicholson to make right GM hire for Oilers.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers Report Cards: Few passing grades remain in season full of failure.
  • Lowetide: How winning the draft lottery and drafting Jack Hughes could transform the Oilers.
  • Lowetide: The Oilers have a trio of Condors blue pushing and all three are tracking well. How does this group compare to the Petry, Chorney, Wild college men from a decade ago?
  • Jonathan Willis: Connor McDavid’s frustration should be seen by the Oilers as a warning of possible disaster.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers have another problem to solve: Lifting the cloud over a clearly frustrated Connor McDavid
  • Lowetide: What Mark Hunter’s draft record in Toronto means for his Oilers GM candidacy.
  • Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers, the republic of Finland and the 2019 draft.
  • Lowetide: The Oilers made a rare move and shopped the QMJHL at the 2018 draft. It could happen again.
  • Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers draft early, the WHL is loaded and there’s a lot of history.
  • Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers and the OHL.

COMPLETE NHLE 2018-19 FORWARDS

  • Marody’s 44 points is well clear of last year’s top number (Kailer Yamamoto, 39.6) and the highest NHLE since the Oilers drafted McDavid in 2015 (63).
  • Marody’s 44 NHLE was matched by Drake Caggiula when he signed with the Oilers. Both were 21 in the years in question.
  • Benson is in an area many AHL forwards reach, but not at 20 (at least Oilers prospects). Andrew Miller was 35 NHLE in 2015, but he was 25.
  • Joe Gambardella and Josh Currie are two forwards who might be able to catch on as value contracts who can PK and score some.
  • Kirill Maksimov showed very well, but some juniors have a tough time producing offense in the first season AHL.
  • Kailer Yamamoto had injury issues, but this was a disappointing step down in NHLE.
  • Ryan McLeod’s draft +1 is beyond Marco Roy (20) in his draft +1 season, but he production is disappointing. He needs to post more offense.
  • This is the secondary offensive group. Safin had an injury riddled campaign, suspect he’ll be at the big table next Easter.
  • I like Hebig, suspect he’ll have a strong second season in the AHL.
  • Polei is another favourite.
  • McPhee and Rasanen were part of the power outage at Boston College, both need to have better seasons in 2019-20.
  • I don’t have an NHLE for Patrik Siikanen, so he isn’t listed here.

COMPLETE NHLE 2018-19 DEFENSE

  • Bouchard’s draft +1 number, like his draft NHLE, is outstanding. Defensemen are tough to project. Darnell Nurse had a draft +1 NHLE of 19, and just posted 41 points in the NHL. Boxcars depend on feature role, same as it ever was. That said, Bouchard looks terrific.
  • Joel Persson arrives this fall with expectations. A lot of smart people believe he’ll have an impact. NHLE concurs.
  • Bear, Jones and Lagesson look like they are ready. Impossible for all of them to ascend to the NHL (with Bouchard and Persson), expect a cull sometime before April 2020.
  • Samorukov had a splendid year. He could pass a lot of people now that turns pro. It might take an adjustment year but you get the feeling he might arrive well before projection.
  • Michael Kesselring stepped up in a big way after the trade. A very raw player, his spike late is encouraging.
  • Berglund’s offense went down but his TOI increased to 19:02 from 17:03. His 5-on-5 goal differential fell to 29-28 from 34-23 a year ago. I’m not certain when or if he’ll come over, Oilers have until June 1, 2020 to get him signed.
  • Desharnais is a shutdown defenseman and his college career is over. Edmonton will need to sign him (and goalie Hayden Hawkey) by August 15 of this year. I suspect Edmonton will try to sign Hawkey.
  • John Marino has spiked as a player and appears to be returning for his senior season. That’s probably bad news for Edmonton. Mark Divver broke the news.
  • Phil Kemp is another fine defensive prospect matriculating well.

Interesting tweet. One of the things Edmonton’s new general manager would probably pursue is trade ideas surrounding some of the team’s higher cap earners. The injury to Lucic could impact things.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, we hit the air with an actual mountain of news to discuss. TSN1260, scheduled to appear:

  • Marck Zecchino, Golf Talk Canada. Tiger wins! A massive sports story.
  • Jason Gregor, TSN1260. Lucic, Oilers GM, Tiger.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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222 Responses to "Value Contracts"

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  1. kgo says:

    Lowetide:
    Please don’t post personal information about anyone unless you can provide a link from a reputable news source confirming. Thanks!

    Seriously? I watched Ales Hemsky smoke cigarettes when he was wasted after the bar numerous times….can’t find any links corroborating this claim but that doesn’t make it any less true

  2. godot10 says:

    The one thing that hasn’t been mentioned about the potential of McLeod returning to junior as an overager is that there may not be an available spot for him. Junior teams can only carry a couple of overagers. There might not be a spot for him. The commitment to be an overager for a team is made well before training camp.

    It is not like he can just be sent back to Saginaw after training camp.

  3. SwedishPoster says:

    Man. The Stanley cup playoffs are so awesome. Such a brilliant piece of entertainment. Sucks to not have a horse in the race.

  4. ArmchairGM says:

    Oilman99: Watch the replay, it was an unintentional knee on knee, DeBrusk actually lifts his leg to try to miss contacting Kadri. Kadri’s hit was an intentional attempt to injure, the suspension should be longer.

    No love lost here for Kadri, believe you me. But I see attempt to injure hits in every playoff game, the result of the hit should be taken into account too. After what happened to Sekera…

  5. ArmchairGM says:

    YKOil: In best-to-worstorder of usefulness and how much I like what they bring to the table (imo):

    – Sekera, Russell, Lucic,

    See, I see it differently. I would say Russell is the most useful of those players by far. IF Sekera can return to 2016 form then he rises to the top, but as it is he played a VERY sheltered 3rd pairing role this year and thus hasn’t proven to be anywhere near as useful as Russell. That’s not his fault of course, but that’s where we are today. Come October it may be different though.

  6. jp says:

    oilersfan: Luke Glendenning is the hard target

    Check your fancies oilers fans

    He would
    Move their PK from 31 to 20 just by winning all the face offs

    There were 127 forwards to play 240+ minutes of PK time over the past 3 seasons.
    Among them Glendenning ranked:
    120/127 in CA/60
    120/127 in FA/60
    104/127 in SA/60
    90/127 in GA/60
    111/127 in SCA/60
    110/127 in HDCA/60

    He can win faceoffs but I’m not sure he helps a PK. He’s not good at even strength either.

    I don’t see how Benning for Glendenning would help the team.

  7. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10:
    The one thing that hasn’t been mentioned about the potential of McLeod returning to junior as an overager is that there may not be an available spot for him.Junior teams can only carry a couple of overagers. There might not be a spot for him.The commitment to be an overager for a team is made well before training camp.

    It is not like he can just be sent back to Saginaw after training camp.

    I don’t imagine its even been contemplated by the current management group nor will be by the new. To me its an out there idea that doesn’t make much sense for this particular player.

  8. jp says:

    Glovjuice: Marody won’t make the NHL.

    So Benson, McLeod and Maksimov have the Glovjuice seal of approval?

  9. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: Niagara eliminates – Maksimov likely on his way to the Condors soon which is going to be awesome.

    Hopefully he can hold a regular spot in the lineup.

    Also, on Persson, any idea if there was word on him coming over to Bakersfield for the playoffs? I assume he isn’t since Vaxjo has been out a while and he doesn’t appear to have made the trip. Any idea why? He’s not a real candidate for the World Championship team is he?

  10. Maoriduvpoojt says:

    jp:

    Also, on Persson, any idea if there was word on him coming over to Bakersfield for the playoffs? I assume he isn’t since Vaxjo has been out a while and he doesn’t appear to have made the trip. Any idea why? He’s not a real candidate for the World Championship team is he?

    I believe someone on here (Swedish Poster?) mentioned he was injured during the playoffs.

  11. OriginalPouzar says:

    I guess Russell was more valuable than Sekera down the stretch as he did play higher in the lineup than Reggie – at the same time, he was quite poor down the stretch and that 2nd pairing really struggled.

    At the same time, although, yes, sheltered third pairing minutes, Reggie did absolutely solidify that third pairing and really helped Matt Benning calm his game down.

    Reg did get a few games with 2nd pairing minutes with some in-game injuries and showed fine.

    He did this while burning off essentially 2-years of rust and playing with no training camp and 5 months of “game shape” behind everyone else.

    With a full camp next year I imagine he will be even better and can’t imagine him not being “more valuable” than Kris Russell.

  12. Ryan says:

    jp: So Benson, McLeod and Maksimov have the Glovjuice seal of approval?

    How is Marody’s skating? I don’t watch the condors and didn’t pay much attention to him when he played in the NHL.

    He didn’t look fast to my limited recollection.

  13. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: Hopefully he can hold a regular spot in the lineup.

    Also, on Persson, any idea if there was word on him coming over to Bakersfield for the playoffs? I assume he isn’t since Vaxjo has been out a while and he doesn’t appear to have made the trip. Any idea why? He’s not a real candidate for the World Championship team is he?

    Wouldn’t think he’s got a real shot at the Worlds due to established NHL players – never know though.

    Lets not forget, Persson missed the last few regular season games and the entire playoffs with a lower body injury. He may not want to come all the way over and play in the AHL for very little money (his current contract is his ELC so 2-way – next year he’s got a one-way deal which I like – will keep him in North America even if he doesn’t make the NHL and needs AHL time – way more money than he makes back home).

  14. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ryan: How is Maroody’s skating? I don’t watch the condors and didn’t pay much attention to him when he played in the NHL.

    He didn’t look fast to my limited recollection.

    Marody’s skating isn’t an asset – that’s for sure. He seems fast enough in the AHL, however, from his short stint in the NHL, he really did seem to struggle with the speed.

    I was watching his skating in the 2nd half and it did seem improved and I assume he’ll be working on it over the summer knowing its his main weakness.

  15. SwedishPoster says:

    Maoriduvpoojt: I believe someone on here (Swedish Poster?) mentioned he was injured during the playoffs.

    Yep he was injured. A big reason his team had an early exit. Sounded like he was close to returning for the last few games so shouldn’t be long term. But he’s an Oiler now so who knows.

    Would have been nice to see him get a few games with the Condors, it would’ve helped him get an idea of what he needs to work on to adapt to NA hockey. He’s a smart player so a few reps could have made quite a difference methinks. He’s also not a natural fit for the NA style so there are some tweaks to be made if he’s to translate. But as mentioned, smart player with great technical tools as well so it’s certainly doable.
    Will be extremely interesting to see how he fares, he could up being anything from a massive success story to guy who quickly fades out and moves on to the KHL/NLA. If he works out he’s a treat to watch, truly entertaining player.

  16. jp says:

    Maoriduvpoojt,

    OriginalPouzar,

    SwedishPoster,

    I recall the injury but didn’t realize he never made it back. That would certainly explain it.

  17. jp says:

    Ryan: How is Marody’s skating? I don’t watch the condors and didn’t pay much attention to him when he played in the NHL.

    He didn’t look fast to my limited recollection.

    Agree he didn’t. I haven’t seen him play in the AHL so OPs synopsis is appreciated.

  18. Caribbeerman says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    The guy barely played 5 minutes a game in the NHL – hard to get a read on his skating let alone his overall game. That said – he did all that he could do as a rookie in the AHL – seems to me like he is very deserving of a fair shot to make the NHL team this fall.

  19. Glovjuice says:

    jp: So Benson, McLeod and Maksimov have the Glovjuice seal of approval?

    Not Maksimov

  20. Ryan says:

    Not a bad if not painful read at the Sun.

    https://edmontonsun.com/sports/hockey/nhl/edmonton-oilers/why-are-the-calgary-flames-so-far-ahead-of-the-edmonton-oilers

    Excellent quote here:

    The Oilers’ inability to fill their roster from within has really hurt them. It’s forced them to build the bulk of the team (12 players this year) via free agency, which puts them in cap trouble and limits their ability to make trades because they don’t have much to offer other than the core (lottery) pieces they can’t give up

  21. jp says:

    Glovjuice: Not Maksimov

    Fair enough.

    I worry about McLeod too since he hasn’t posted much offense.

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