Evan Bouchard Revisited

by Lowetide

Red Line Report ranked Evan Bouchard No. 5 one year ago, projecting him as a “smart, skilled, top-pairing defenseman” when all is said and done. Red Line, who (like me) enjoy naming comparables, suggesting a “young Andrei Markov” to the delight of many.

One thing about projections and defensemen: Best to take it one step at a time. If you project Bouchard to a third-pairing NHL defenseman in the next 12 months, chances are you’ll be close to the mark. Top pair D? He may never get there. Many reading this today don’t really believe Oscar Klefbom is a top pair defender, Adam Larsson too. Evan Bouchard is a star junior player graduating to pro hockey. He’ll tell us what he is, as time goes by.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group.INSANE NEW OFFER IS HERE!

  • New Lowetide: What would Glen Sather do with these Oilers?
  • New Jonathan Willis: Some creative solutions to address the Oilers’ goalie problem
  • Lowetide: The Milan Lucic saga rolls into Year 4 for Oilers with no easy answers
  • Jonathan Willis: Who stays and who goes? An early projection of which players will remain on the Oilers’ roster in 2019-20
  • LowetideHow high can these Condors fly?
  • Lowetide: Ron Hextall’s patient approach as GM would be shock to Oilers’ system
  • Jonathan Willis: Michael Futa’s success at the NHL Draft makes him a credible GM candidate for the Oilers
  • Lowetide: The Oilers possible summer trade pieces, and which longtime players might be saying goodbye.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ten prospects likely to be available when the Oilers make their first-round pick.
  • Jonathan Willis: Bob Nicholson mostly says the right things, but stalls on making changes to the Oilers.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The pressure’s squarely on Bob Nicholson to make right GM hire for Oilers.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers Report Cards: Few passing grades remain in season full of failure.
  • Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers, the republic of Finland and the 2019 draft.
  • Lowetide: The Oilers made a rare move and shopped the QMJHL at the 2018 draft. It could happen again.
  • Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers draft early, the WHL is loaded and there’s a lot of history.
  • Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers and the OHL.

PUCK IQ’S DFF

  • This is 5-on-5 time on ice and DFF percentage via Puck IQ.
  • DFF is a weighted shot metric using shot distance location and type of shot to give each shot a “danger” value. It’s the real thing. Combined with the binning of competition, we’re inside the blue room and looking intelligently down three different aisles. This is the new testament.
  • In order for Bouchard or Jones to pass Benning, you’d need to see them perform at higher levels in all three slots, especially the elite competition.
  • As you can see, Bouchard’s minutes are so small we can’t tell one damn thing.
  • Jones played around 100 minutes in each discipline, and he’s not far away. I think the Oilers could count on him as a third pairing option as soon as 2019-20.

BOUCHARD BY THE NUMBERS

  • A ridiculous talent at the junior level, Bouchard’s 5-on-5 numbers alone are impressive. If he spends next season in the AHL, I would think the Condors’ record for points by a rookie defenseman (Logan Day, 34) is in jeopardy.
  • It’s also possible, if Bouchard plays all 68 AHL games, the overall point record by a defenseman (Brad Hunt, 41) could fall.

BOUCHARD VERSUS PERSSON VERSUS BEAR

My guess is that all three men will spend time in the NHL and AHL this coming season. None of the three will be vulnerable to waivers this coming season. Logic and reason dictates Persson and Bear would start training camp ahead of Bouchard, I’m not at all sure they’ll hold him off past Christmas.

Coverage issues and reaction time are going to be issues for all three men, and one imagines Bear has the edge out of the gate.

  • This might come down to AHL vs. SHL and quality of league. Rob Vollman’s NHLE shows the SHL (.596) as being a better league than the AHL (.486) and William Lagesson’s performance in both leagues suggests both leagues are quality.
  • Entering camp, I would handicap it Persson, Bear, Bouchard for an NHL job. Thoughts?

I hope you get a chance to read today’s item for The Athletic. I had a look at Glen Sather’s team building work in the late 1970’s and early 1990’s, and laid that template over the new hire. Slats is a fascinating figure in Oilers history, perhaps his track record can light the way to a new tomorrow.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260, we head toward the weekend with a strong guest list. Scheduled to appear:

  • Steve Lansky, BigMouthSports. What would Glen do if he was named Oilers GM today? Plus Canadian teams in the playoffs.
  • Frank Seravalli, TSN. We need Frank to make sense of a wild first round of NHL playoffs.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

129 comments
0

You may also like

0 0 votes
Article Rating
129 Comments
Newest
Oldest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
gimme shelter

The first thing I want to say even if it is a good idea to draft 20 years olds,legally is has to done at 18.

Ryan

Anyone else having difficulty staying logged in?

Ryan

OriginalPouzar:
Lots of people can rest easily now – Ken Holland is sticking in Detroit as Senior Vice President and will be announcing Steve Yzerman as GM tomorrow.

I don’t think Holland would be terrible as a President of Hockey Ops to mentor a progressive thinking younger GM.

Someone suggested a Holland Gilman tandem which would be intriguing.

ArmchairGM

godot10,

Bruce McCurdy,

leadfarmer,

Man, you guys are no fun at all!

Professor Q

Fuge Udvar,

Well, there you go. That’s that then.

OriginalPouzar

Go Condors!

OriginalPouzar

Doesn’t sound like Yzerman it taking Verbeek to Detroit with him……

OriginalPouzar

Lots of people can rest easily now – Ken Holland is sticking in Detroit as Senior Vice President and will be announcing Steve Yzerman as GM tomorrow.

Tesla's Hair

Im reading all of your words in a lebanese-syrian restaurant in a foreign land in 38C aided by invisible wifi miracle waves on a korean device made in vietnam that i saw in startrek as a kid.

No matter what you write i appreciate you sharing your thoughts, opinions, mind and heart with us all and your passion for hockey and our dramatic oilers team.

Thats what brings us together each day.

If you havent already, reach out to each other in person. Two of my new friends this year were found on LT community in Toronto and sparked joy in my life there.

Feelin’ high from another bonus day of life, turkish coffee and mindaltering-jetlag. #ontheroadagain

Fuge Udvar

Professor Q,

USHL is a junior league. I guess the SPHL would be the league one tier below the ECHL.

buddyboe

Jordan

This idea started in 2012 and is called the “Gold plan”. Shane Doan also has brought it up multiple times, and it is a good idea. Just not a new one ?

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/shane-doan-tanking-gold-plan-nhl-lottery-draft/

Professor Q

leadfarmer: In places that live and breathe soccer.
How many teams would go see a relegated Florida panthers or Arizona Coyotes game.
Although it would be funny to relegate the Edmonton Oilers and promote the Bakersfield Condors

It does seem to happen a bit between the ECHL and AHL, where some teams are elevated and others relegated between the two. Just need to add the NHL to the pie…

However, in European and other football/soccer nations, relegation and elevation have exemptions for teams owned by the same owner, and teams which serve as the junior squads as their higher-league counterparts.

As a cross-example, say the Junior Chelsea Squad (Under 20s and Under 18s, etc.) play in League One or League Two. They can not be elevated, and are just there as extra competition and for experience (even if they win the League). They obviously can not play in the same league level as the first team squad. Similar in the Bundesliga.

This would be similar (but not precisely) to if, say, the USHL was the sub-league to the ECHL, which was the sub-league to the AHL, which was the sub-league to the NHL, and teams can be relegated or elevated. EXCEPT for the US NTDP. They remain in both the USHL and NCAA (both teams). It’s not exactly the same, though. The CHL might have to be involved and that would complicate things dearly.

leadfarmer

ArmchairGM: Some leagues have relegation, they still get good attendance.

In places that live and breathe soccer.
How many teams would go see a relegated Florida panthers or Arizona Coyotes game.
Although it would be funny to relegate the Edmonton Oilers and promote the Bakersfield Condors

Reja

Had the jets in 6 well that’s not gonna happen what a killer goal how the hell do you defend against a goal like that.

godot10

ArmchairGM: Why would they be different from regular season games after a team is officially eliminated from the playoff race? Last I checked you don’t get a discount for those, and they’re pretty well attended.

Tickets were available on the resale market for 75% off when the Oilers were effectively out of the playoff race.

Bruce McCurdy

I love these annual “if only we could get out of cap hell we could take advantage of some other team in cap hell” posts. Always make me smile, albeit ruefully.

And then I watch Teuvo Teravainen score a huge goal in the playoffs off a perfect feed by Nino Niederreiter & I go, “THAT’s how you make cap space work in your favour.” The ‘canes got Teravainen as a sweetener in the deal where they took Bryan Bickell’s cap off Chicago’s hands, & they got Niederreiter this year because Minny got sick of paying $5+ million for a “fourth liner” & now both are filling the net in Carolina. On a line with Sebastian Aho, a homegrown player of a rare type never seen in these parts (second rounder makes it big).

Niederreiter gets paid already, Teravianen does starting next year & the Aho extension will be a key negotiation this sumemer, but right now Carolina is getting massive value from a line that costs them <$10 million.

ArmchairGM

Bruce McCurdy: How much are tickets for these games & who is going to pay those prices?

Why would they be different from regular season games after a team is officially eliminated from the playoff race? Last I checked you don’t get a discount for those, and they’re pretty well attended.

ArmchairGM

knighttown: Bingo.

The only people on earth who would be interested in attending hockey games where the prize is the difference between Alex Turcotte and Peyton Krebs are the 40 or so draftophiles hanging out on here in mid June. Even the players have no clue who guys outside the top 2 are.

The is the ultimate moms basement/blog idea

Some leagues have relegation, they still get good attendance.

Bruce McCurdy

ArmchairGM: The Loser Playoffs could be best of 3 instead of 7 so as not to conflict with the later rounds of the Stanley Cup playoffs.

How much are tickets for these games & who is going to pay those prices?

season not played

BONE207:
Happy CONNOR day!!!

4 years ago we saw the golden ticket…woohoo

Happy Conner curse day!

Consider the sequence of events that would likely not occurred and probably would have.

Pretty good chance we end up with Mitch Marner, if im running out a Hall Drasaitl Marner first line im feeling pretty good about it.

Mactavish had resigned the team to a patient approach meaning, if the had any brains would have got a full stud at 15 and lets say Brandon Carlo at 31. Lets call # 15 Thomas Chabot for a tidy procurement of a pretty nice left right combo.

There is no Chiarelli, no macllelan and with a lack of options due to organizational ineptitude Todd Nelson stays on as head coach, much to the delight of justin schultz and nail yakupov who continue to improve.

Unfortunately the idiotic sewering of Dubnyk in the media and the one year challenge of Jeff Petry still occurs but there are nice prospects in place on the blueline and it is a growth team, there is no hurry they are finally doing it right.

No Lucic, no sekera, the cowboy is still on the market in october and signed and recognizing the need for some toughness scrivens for kassian still occurs.

No Eberle trade because they dont make the playoffs in 17 and he doesnt bail on that play and sign his ticket out of town. Pouliot doesnt get bought out for no reason and remains a useful nhl player and good penalty killer. Mact likes gordon so no useless korpikoski contract with an extra year.

Keith Gretzky wants to be close to his brother so comes over and our prospect pool is essentially the same and justin schutz gets 300 games under nelson and is a puck moving righty putting up 50 points a year. They finish lower in the standings in 2017 and snag michael rasmussen instead of yamamoto because eberle and yak fill the small scoring forward quota.

I could go on but you get the point.

Revisionist? Of course, absolutely, but i like this team better than the current one and there is not one hint of a salary cap issue with a wealth of scoring forwards, an outstanding d pipeline they would have just had to find a solution in net. Pretty good chance the scenario as described has this years team in the playoffs and for years to come with a solid pipeline at all positions and zero cap issues.

When will our current oilers actually be competitive?

Happy four year golden ticket anniversary……

Scungilli Slushy

OriginalPouzar: Sekera struggled at 2RD in a small sample size playing first pairing minutes with a rookie Nurse as his partners.

Russell struggles currently at 2RD playing 2nd pairing minutes with a more developed and established Nurse as his partner.

Sure, I guess we can say that Sekera is a 3rd pairing d-man at this time but he already proved to be an elite 3rd pairing d-man and did fine in a few games with additional minutes.This was done with essentially 2-years of rust, no training camp and 5 months behind all others on the ice.

I have little hesitation positing he is likely to be able to handle 2nd pairing minutes this coming fall with a full training camp and the rust shaken off.

I don’t imagine he wouldn’t be just as effective, in fact, much more effective, than Kris Russell at any position.He is simply a better player.

Truth
Baited breath that he makes it to training camp healthy. Some people are or become injury prone. Having been injured is a strong indicator of future injuries.

If he’s healthy and gets his abilities back so that he isn’t getting walked much more than normal he would be the second best D. His overall game is quality, especially as the league is. I don’t agree with PCs take on him because it is tainted with a love of gritensity which is only relevant if the player has it and skill.

OriginalPouzar

pts2pndr: This is why I agree with you as far as sweeteners to get rid of existing contracts. Even buyouts pit the team in a position where there isn’t the cap space to take advantage of good deals when they come along. Cap space is the gold standard.

Yup, and cap space will be acquired in the next few years via simple patience and will power – not giving up assets or retaining or buying out. The only current contracts that cause issue past two years are Lucic and Koskinen and here is hoping Koskinen is providing at least some decent value – fingers crossed, that is a huge gating issue for this team.

OriginalPouzar

pts2pndr: I understand your point however the problem is Sekera struggled at 2 right D in small sample size. Both Sekera and Russel are third pairing D at this time. Russel has proven more durable and is better cover for 2nd pairing right D. Sekera will be easier to move and is better for the cap relief. If we had a 2nd pairing right D, Sekera would be the far better choice for mentoring the young D.

Sekera struggled at 2RD in a small sample size playing first pairing minutes with a rookie Nurse as his partners.

Russell struggles currently at 2RD playing 2nd pairing minutes with a more developed and established Nurse as his partner.

Sure, I guess we can say that Sekera is a 3rd pairing d-man at this time but he already proved to be an elite 3rd pairing d-man and did fine in a few games with additional minutes. This was done with essentially 2-years of rust, no training camp and 5 months behind all others on the ice.

I have little hesitation positing he is likely to be able to handle 2nd pairing minutes this coming fall with a full training camp and the rust shaken off.

I don’t imagine he wouldn’t be just as effective, in fact, much more effective, than Kris Russell at any position. He is simply a better player.

OriginalPouzar

Smaorukov with an assist on a PP goal as Guelph cut the Saginaw lead to 3-2 on the second.

leadfarmer

knighttown: Bingo.

The only people on earth who would be interested in attending hockey games where the prize is the difference between Alex Turcotte and Peyton Krebs are the 40 or so draftophiles hanging out on here in mid June. Even the players have no clue who guys outside the top 2 are.

The is the ultimate moms basement/blog idea

Who the heck would want to participate in or watch a loser playoff.
Maybe Canada
Most US teams wouldn’t make back enough money to pay for the light bill.
The lottery already makes tanking really not worth it

OriginalPouzar

Bouchard officially assigned to Bakersfield.

No official word on Maksimov.

I don’t anticipate either will play tomorrow.

Georgexs

knighttown: Number 4/5 defensemen are NOT where you try to save dollars.If one agrees that the player who is on the ice the most has the most chance to impact the game, positively or negatively, then one must be reminded just how many minutes Top-5 defensemen play over the course of the season.

Darnell Nurse is what…our #3 defenseman?

He played 1953 minutes a full 100 minutes more than Leon who played the most minutes of any forward in the NHL.

Adam Larsson played almost exactly the same number of minutes as Connor McDavid.For better or for worse, over the course of the season Larsson has as much opportunity to affect a game as McDavid does.

Kris Freakin Russell played 1470 minutes and missed 10 games!If he played all 82 like Nuge did he would have played more minutes than Nuge did.

Matt Benning, our #6 defenseman missed 10 games but if hadn’t he’d have played more than any Oilers winger.

If you made a Sekera/Gravel Frankenstein he’d only have played 60 games but still would have played more minutes than the full time bottom sixers like Reider, Brodziak and Khaira.

And if you made a Super-Hybrid Frankendefenseman out of the number 8 defensemen (Garrison, Manning, Petrovic, Jones and Wideman), a) that defenseman would suck so bad and b) he’d play nearly 1000 minutes, again, more than any winger besides Chiasson.

Defensemen play more.They have more time to affect the game.Too much time is spent worrying about forward #12 and not enough time is spent thinking about defenseman number 6, 7, 8 and even 9.

(And by the way, Klef and Larss are amazing value.If Nurse could be locked up at 5M that would be tremendous value)

“Number 4/5 defensemen are NOT where you try to save dollars.”

The 124th (4 x 31) highest cap hit for a defenseman last season was $2.5M.

The 155th (5 x 31) highest cap hit for a defenseman last season was $1.375M.

$2.5M was the cap hit for Matt Martin, the 211th highest cap hit for a forward. This would be close to the 7th forward.

$1.375M was the cap hit for Derek Mackenzie, the 257th forward, somewhere between the 8th and 9th forward.

The League pays 4/5 defensemen about what it pays 7/8/9 forwards.

“If one agrees that the player who is on the ice the most has the most chance to impact the game, positively or negatively, then one must be reminded just how many minutes Top-5 defensemen play over the course of the season.”

If time on ice = chance to impact the game, why are teams paying 4/5 defensemen about what they pay 7/8/9 forwards, who play about 5+ fewer minutes a night?

While we’re at it, Jonathan Bernier played about 7 more minutes last season than Draisaitl, the forward with the most time on ice. Bernier had a cap hit of $3M compared to Draisaitl’s $8.5M.

Goalies have a pretty big impact on the game, don’t they? Freddy Andersen has a cap hit of $5M (17th among goalies), the same as Tyler Bozak (112th among forwards).

Why does the League not allocate cap dollars according to the formula “the player who is on the ice the most has the most chance to impact the game”?

Do teams just not know what they’re doing? Do they not get value?

Or is it a bit of “chance to impact the game” doesn’t necessarily translate to actual impact on the game?

pts2pndr

knighttown: Number 4/5 defensemen are NOT where you try to save dollars.If one agrees that the player who is on the ice the most has the most chance to impact the game, positively or negatively, then one must be reminded just how many minutes Top-5 defensemen play over the course of the season.

Darnell Nurse is what…our #3 defenseman?

He played 1953 minutes a full 100 minutes more than Leon who played the most minutes of any forward in the NHL.

Adam Larsson played almost exactly the same number of minutes as Connor McDavid.For better or for worse, over the course of the season Larsson has as much opportunity to affect a game as McDavid does.

Kris Freakin Russell played 1470 minutes and missed 10 games!If he played all 82 like Nuge did he would have played more minutes than Nuge did.

Matt Benning, our #6 defenseman missed 10 games but if hadn’t he’d have played more than any Oilers winger.

If you made a Sekera/Gravel Frankenstein he’d only have played 60 games but still would have played more minutes than the full time bottom sixers like Reider, Brodziak and Khaira.

And if you made a Super-Hybrid Frankendefenseman out of the number 8 defensemen (Garrison, Manning, Petrovic, Jones and Wideman), a) that defenseman would suck so bad and b) he’d play nearly 1000 minutes, again, more than any winger besides Chiasson.

Defensemen play more.They have more time to affect the game.Too much time is spent worrying about forward #12 and not enough time is spent thinking about defenseman number 6, 7, 8 and even 9.

(And by the way, Klef and Larss are amazing value.If Nurse could be locked up at 5M that would be tremendous value)

I don’t disagree with what you are saying. The reality is we have some very highly played players well worth what we are paying. We unfortunately have six million tied up in a player who playing at a replacement player level. Cap is required to fill the need on wing. The six million dollar contract and Russels contract are ver difficult at best to get rid of. Sekera has value and his contract is the easier of the three to move. We have cover at Left D and badly nee a second pairing right D. Our best answer for the past two seasons has been Russel. That has not worked for us. The only reason I have Sekera as the player to move is given our cap situation and contracts of the players that should or could be moved he seems to be the most logical answer. The cap gained can be prioritised to acquie either a second pairing right D or a winger. Currently we have over nine million being payed out for two third pairing left D while we have cover internally for the position at entry level cost.

knighttown

godot10:
So Connor McDavid is going to play for free in the loser playoffs for absolutely nothing of consequence, and risk injury?

Who is exactly going to attend these Losers hockey games?Are you going force your premium seat and suite holders and season ticker holders to pay for them?

Are you going to ruin your relationship with the IIHF and ruin their marquee event, the world championship,and the NHL’s prime marketing vehicle in Europe for the loser playoffs?

Bingo.

The only people on earth who would be interested in attending hockey games where the prize is the difference between Alex Turcotte and Peyton Krebs are the 40 or so draftophiles hanging out on here in mid June. Even the players have no clue who guys outside the top 2 are.

The is the ultimate moms basement/blog idea 🙂

gogliano

Instead of loser playoffs just make the regular season the loser playoffs. Reverse the order so that the team with the best record out of the playoffs presumptively selects 1st overall and so on down the list. Add a lottery to add some randomness to it and to give a little more draft power to the teams who finish dead last.

NHL drafting is random enough that the worst teams could still draft their way out of the basement & this reversal would straightforwardly incentive every team to win every game (as opposed to farces like Buffalo unloading their goalies in an attempt to draft McJesus).

pts2pndr

OriginalPouzar:
I’m not sure about the verbal re: the Oilers taking advantage of teams in cap hell.

The Oilers don’t have a bunch of high end incumbents to sign like TBL and TOR but, at the same time, are already in cap hell and aren’t in a position to be taking advantage of any other team. NJD, FLA, etc. they are in this position.

This is why I agree with you as far as sweeteners to get rid of existing contracts. Even buyouts pit the team in a position where there isn’t the cap space to take advantage of good deals when they come along. Cap space is the gold standard.

N64

If we’re stuck with the random Bettman point to keep GM’s happy, I’d go all the way. Add 3rd wild cards to each conference to expand the playoffs to 18 teams. Make the 2nd and 3rd wild cards crossover in one game play ins. Make the bottom feeders earn it.

pts2pndr

ArmchairGM: $5M on a 1 year deal might work, or $4M on 2 years, but it depends on how the deal is structured. Buyout friendly or trade friendly contracts only, please!

I am extremely shy of any no trade no movement clauses, we cannot afford another Lucic contract ever! Has to be buyout friendly as well.

godot10

So Connor McDavid is going to play for free in the loser playoffs for absolutely nothing of consequence, and risk injury?

Who is exactly going to attend these Losers hockey games? Are you going force your premium seat and suite holders and season ticker holders to pay for them?

Are you going to ruin your relationship with the IIHF and ruin their marquee event, the world championship, and the NHL’s prime marketing vehicle in Europe for the loser playoffs?

Bulging Twine

Nit64: I’d back any change that keeps overagers out of the CHL and allows Canadian kids the option to go the US College Scholarship route after the CHL.

The general trend in pro sport is to stop trying to restrict 18 years, but limiting early admission to first round draftees might be palatable.

Yes, I would like some better structure and definition and continuity around the 20 year old season.

For those in the CHL it’s kinda unclear and wonky. Does the player go back and dominate? Does he go to the AHL and struggle. Maybe there is a better way.

It may start with saying no 20 year olds in the CHL. You graduate and off to the new ECHL which is now called U-22’s or something. I don’t know. The ECHL as it stands is fairly useless.

ArmchairGM

Jordan: It could become a requirement on the standard player contracts as a component of post-season play, which if it happened would mean that it would need to be negotiated in the new CBA.

I would suspect a component of it might be including some of the revenues from round 1 into the hockey related revenues formula that drives the cap formula.Only the round 1 revenues would be impacted, as that would be the only round that would have all 32 teams playing.I don’t think the owners would give up the whole round, so I’ll say 50% of round 1 revenues.would be included.

Or, you could have 50% of all revenues from the loser cup go towards reducing player escrow or something – that way there’s still value for the players, but there’s also a penalty to those orgs participating, so they don’t get the full benefit of additional revenues from “playoff” hockey.

Lots of options to both incentivise and make it competitive.

The Loser Playoffs could be best of 3 instead of 7 so as not to conflict with the later rounds of the Stanley Cup playoffs.

N64

Bulging Twine: But they are on the team not scattered around the world on a variety of teams and leagues.

What’s the point of drafting an 18 year old when you think of it.Why not just up it a year?

That way the draft picks are that much more interesting because there is one more year of info.You’re making a better bet then.Look at the percentages of 3rd to 7th round picks that actually ever pan out.I think there is a better way and perhaps this may help.Watching these u-18’s after watching a week of playoff hockey…they are just weak kids.They have a ton of growing and developing to do.

Also the players are closer to impacting the team.
A teams development program would be one step closer to being more in house and not at the mercy of 100’s of different coaches and teams around the world.I think it would lead to creative changes in the way the teams develops players – perhaps with some type of new league or changes to the ECHL or something.

Notwithstanding elite players.I don’t know how you reconcile my idea with the McDavid’s and other exceptional players.

I’d back any change that keeps overagers out of the CHL and allows Canadian kids the option to go the US College Scholarship route after the CHL.

The general trend in pro sport is to stop trying to restrict 18 years, but limiting early admission to first round draftees might be palatable.

defmn

Reja:
I really think there is a big misconception between skill and toughness many people like to believe it’s one or the other. Duringtheregular season anyone looked at Jenny it was a 2 minute minor for hurting his feelings same with Tampawhichwere aloud to prance around the ice all year. I’m glad it still takes both to win a cup and I could see both the Pens and Tampa adding some grit and sandpaper with skill after both getting owned so badly.

Agreed.

The gentleman whose blog this is has been handing out the answer to what a winning team needs every summer for the past 10 years while always arriving at the same conclusion which is that this team doesn’t have it.

In order to win in the NHL it isn’t skill or toughness, speed or shooters, character or culture, veterans or rookies.

The answer is that you need balance. A smidgeon of this, a dash of that, a big scoop of something else. You can change the recipe to get a slightly different flavour depending on circumstances but if you want to win you need at least some of every ingredient whether you can measure it or smell it.

Balance. Amazingly it is the key to a lot of different types of success in life and it takes skill and experience to know when you have added too much of one thing or not enough of another.

Jordan

incubo_nero:
Jordan,

And the incentive for the players to risk injury, give up 1 to 1.5 months (?) of their off-season for unpaid work in a tertiary post-season is what, exactly? Setting aside that the NHLPA would have to agree to your idea.

It could become a requirement on the standard player contracts as a component of post-season play, which if it happened would mean that it would need to be negotiated in the new CBA.

I would suspect a component of it might be including some of the revenues from round 1 into the hockey related revenues formula that drives the cap formula. Only the round 1 revenues would be impacted, as that would be the only round that would have all 32 teams playing. I don’t think the owners would give up the whole round, so I’ll say 50% of round 1 revenues.would be included.

Or, you could have 50% of all revenues from the loser cup go towards reducing player escrow or something – that way there’s still value for the players, but there’s also a penalty to those orgs participating, so they don’t get the full benefit of additional revenues from “playoff” hockey.

Lots of options to both incentivise and make it competitive.

pts2pndr

godot10: It is a horrible idea to try to break in 3rd pairing D with Kris Russell as the other guy. Russell doesn’t play defense properly…er…conventionally.Sekera is much more suited to the “James Patrick” 3rd pairing D finishing school role that Lindy Ruff ran in Buffalo for a decade.

I understand your point however the problem is Sekera struggled at 2 right D in small sample size. Both Sekera and Russel are third pairing D at this time. Russel has proven more durable and is better cover for 2nd pairing right D. Sekera will be easier to move and is better for the cap relief. If we had a 2nd pairing right D, Sekera would be the far better choice for mentoring the young D.

Bulging Twine

godot10: But this is mostly less and less true.In the NFL, one is increasingly drafting for draft+2, except for elite players.Most drafted players start as backups or role players since offenses and defenses are ever more complex.

But they are on the team not scattered around the world on a variety of teams and leagues.

What’s the point of drafting an 18 year old when you think of it. Why not just up it a year?

That way the draft picks are that much more interesting because there is one more year of info. You’re making a better bet then. Look at the percentages of 3rd to 7th round picks that actually ever pan out. I think there is a better way and perhaps this may help. Watching these u-18’s after watching a week of playoff hockey…they are just weak kids. They have a ton of growing and developing to do.

Also the players are closer to impacting the team.
A teams development program would be one step closer to being more in house and not at the mercy of 100’s of different coaches and teams around the world. I think it would lead to creative changes in the way the teams develops players – perhaps with some type of new league or changes to the ECHL or something.

Notwithstanding elite players. I don’t know how you reconcile my idea with the McDavid’s and other exceptional players.

N64

OriginalPouzar: I too am disapointed that it doesn’t seem they are looking to sign Hawkey. My guess is what has changed is the progression of Shane Starrett over the course of the last season.

How do we know if Hawkey want to give up his August Free Agency? He was committed to the 4th year at College (that NHL teams love so much) when Habs moved him for a 5th.

OriginalPouzar

I’m not sure about the verbal re: the Oilers taking advantage of teams in cap hell.

The Oilers don’t have a bunch of high end incumbents to sign like TBL and TOR but, at the same time, are already in cap hell and aren’t in a position to be taking advantage of any other team. NJD, FLA, etc. they are in this position.

OriginalPouzar

knighttown: Number 4/5 defensemen are NOT where you try to save dollars.If one agrees that the player who is on the ice the most has the most chance to impact the game, positively or negatively, then one must be reminded just how many minutes Top-5 defensemen play over the course of the season.

Darnell Nurse is what…our #3 defenseman?

He played 1953 minutes a full 100 minutes more than Leon who played the most minutes of any forward in the NHL.

Adam Larsson played almost exactly the same number of minutes as Connor McDavid.For better or for worse, over the course of the season Larsson has as much opportunity to affect a game as McDavid does.

Kris Freakin Russell played 1470 minutes and missed 10 games!If he played all 82 like Nuge did he would have played more minutes than Nuge did.

Matt Benning, our #6 defenseman missed 10 games but if hadn’t he’d have played more than any Oilers winger.

If you made a Sekera/Gravel Frankenstein he’d only have played 60 games but still would have played more minutes than the full time bottom sixers like Reider, Brodziak and Khaira.

And if you made a Super-Hybrid Frankendefenseman out of the number 8 defensemen (Garrison, Manning, Petrovic, Jones and Wideman), a) that defenseman would suck so bad and b) he’d play nearly 1000 minutes, again, more than any winger besides Chiasson.

Defensemen play more.They have more time to affect the game.Too much time is spent worrying about forward #12 and not enough time is spent thinking about defenseman number 6, 7, 8 and even 9.

(And by the way, Klef and Larss are amazing value.If Nurse could be locked up at 5M that would be tremendous value)

This is a solid point that I have never really given much thought to.

OriginalPouzar

godot10: It is a horrible idea to try to break in 3rd pairing D with Kris Russell as the other guy. Russell doesn’t play defense properly…er…conventionally.Sekera is much more suited to the “James Patrick” 3rd pairing D finishing school role that Lindy Ruff ran in Buffalo for a decade.

Correct (although I am generally comfortable with Russell at 3LD with a Benning type partner).

Sekera is simply better than Russell.

OriginalPouzar

pts2pndr: I think the smart play would be to move Sekera after he makes his 15 team list. He has value but at 5.5 as third pairing D is a luxury we can’t afford. Russel would at least give us some cover for second pairing right D. The coach will have to make a decision how to work out his second third pairing right D. I would like to see Bouchard be given some big minute time in the ahl to acclimate to professional hockey. Bear Benning and Persson battling it out for the third pairing right D. Rather than send Persson to the ahl I think he might make a good candidate for fourth line right winger when not playing D.

1) I would posit that Sekera would be just as viable an option at 2RD cover as Russell – likely better because, well, he is better. Russell is a the 2RD option simply because he’s been doing it the last few years. The verbal is “he can play both sides” which, is true, however, at the same time, its been proven that he is vastly inferior on his right side and simply not good enough – hurting his partner, hurting the offence and, at times, hurting the goals against.

2) With respect, how do you come to the conclusion that a SEL d-man would make a good option as a 4W? Have you seen him play to provide this info (honest question)?

OriginalPouzar

GordieHoweHatTrick:
I really can’t believe the Oilers are going to get a GM before a POHO = Bassackwards.
Also can’t believe they are going to walk on Hawkey. Why did they trade for him? He seems to be trending better than Wells and Skinner. He is older and could be ready/legit in 1 yr.

I too am disapointed that it doesn’t seem they are looking to sign Hawkey. My guess is what has changed is the progression of Shane Starrett over the course of the last season.

I can’t agree that he is “trending better than Wells and Skinner”. For one, Wells had a fine year but, more importantly, these two players were rookie pros in their 20/21 year old seasons. Hawkey is a 24 year old college graduate. Really tough to compare their trends but I would posit but the junior goalies have higher ceilings but are, clearly, years away (as the natural development path of goalies shows us).

OriginalPouzar

GordieHoweHatTrick: Good point and agreed

Stralman is one year older than Russell if we are worried about the age of the player and its natural effect.

OriginalPouzar

Lowetide: No. He is not.

Is Stralman a better option at 2RD than Kris Russell on a similar contract (2 X $4.25M) – plus anything that can be returned in a Russell disposition?

He is only one year older than Kris Russell.

godot10

Bulging Twine:
The NFL draft is such a big event.One of the things that makes it a big deal is that the players drafted are of age and strength where they can make an immediate impact on the lineup.So when a team drafts a player the fans can immediate vision that player slotting into the depth chart next season.

Watching the u-18…all the players need to get stronger….I’d be all for raising the draft age by a year.

But this is mostly less and less true. In the NFL, one is increasingly drafting for draft+2, except for elite players. Most drafted players start as backups or role players since offenses and defenses are ever more complex.