A Very Important Draft

This year’s draft, the 2019 edition, is a big one for the Edmonton Oilers. The team’s first-round pick, No. 8 overall, may best be used in a trade for immediate help (say, Nikolaj Ehlers).

It might also be used on a draft pick who will emerge in a season or two as a legit piece of a successful team. Kirby Dach. Peyton Krebs. It’s also possible the new general manager trades the pick as part of a package for a No. 1 goaltender. It can go any of several directions. How valuable is the player at No. 8?

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group.INSANE NEW OFFER IS HERE!

  • New Lowetide: Red Wings front office shuffle could impact Oilers’ future.
  • New Jonathan Willis: Potential coaching candidates and why the Oilers don’t need to rush the GM search to get one
  • Lowetide: What would Glen Sather do with these Oilers?
  • Jonathan Willis: Some creative solutions to address the Oilers’ goalie problem
  • Lowetide: The Milan Lucic saga rolls into Year 4 for Oilers with no easy answers
  • Jonathan Willis: Who stays and who goes? An early projection of which players will remain on the Oilers’ roster in 2019-20
  • LowetideHow high can these Condors fly?
  • Lowetide: Ron Hextall’s patient approach as GM would be shock to Oilers’ system
  • Jonathan Willis: Michael Futa’s success at the NHL Draft makes him a credible GM candidate for the Oilers
  • Lowetide: The Oilers possible summer trade pieces, and which longtime players might be saying goodbye.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ten prospects likely to be available when the Oilers make their first-round pick.
  • Jonathan Willis: Bob Nicholson mostly says the right things, but stalls on making changes to the Oilers.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The pressure’s squarely on Bob Nicholson to make right GM hire for Oilers.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers Report Cards: Few passing grades remain in season full of failure.
  • Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers, the republic of Finland and the 2019 draft.
  • Lowetide: The Oilers made a rare move and shopped the QMJHL at the 2018 draft. It could happen again.
  • Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers draft early, the WHL is loaded and there’s a lot of history.
  • Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers and the OHL.

TOP SEVEN MOCK

I want to drill down today on the decision that could be facing Edmonton at No. 8 overall. I don’t think the team will try to trade up, but that could change if a player who is a target (Byram, Dach) begins to fall. Here’s my guess for the first seven picks.

  1. New Jersey Devils: C Jack Hughes, U.S. National Development Team (USHL).
  2. New York Rangers: R Kaapo Kakko, Turkku (Sm-Liiga).
  3. Chicago Blackhawks: LC Alex Turcotte, U.S. National Development Team (USHL).
  4. Colorado Avalanche: R Vasili Podkolzin, St. Petersburg (MHL).
  5. Los Angeles Kings: LD Bowen Byram, Vancouver (WHL).
  6. Detroit Red Wings: RC Kirby Dach, Saskatoon (WHL).
  7. Buffalo Sabres: R Dylan Cozens, Lethbridge (WHL).

That leaves Peyton Krebs, Cam York, Cole Caufield, Matt Boldy, Arthur Kaliyev and others.

OPTIONS

Edmonton has some very nice players available at No. 8 (if this ends up being the list). My top option would be Arthur Kaliyev, but I think most readers would hope for a scorer like Cole Caufield or a big winger like Matthew Boldy. Peyton Krebs would be a worthy choice. There are some draft observers who are now seeing goalie Spencer Knight just outside the top 10 overall (Craig Button has him No. 13).

What this means, initially, is that the Oilers could trade down from No. 8 to (say) No. 12 if there’s an opportunity to add a pick. Let’s say the new general manager trades No. 8 for No. 17 and No. 67 (Ottawa traded No. 12 and No. 73 in 2016 for No. 11). Would that give the team real value?

If the Oilers (using Button’s list) grab Peyton Krebs and Nils Hoglander, that might end up the same as Zach Parise for Marc Pouliot and J-F Jacques, but the Oilers are (imo) better at drafting now. It’s a consideration.

LOWETIDE TOP 100

There are more changes this week, I’ve tweaked the top 10 and the European kids are moving up (happens every year around this time).

Using my list, Edmonton picks No. 8 (Peyton Krebs), No. 38 (Nathan Legare), No. 88 (Semyon Chistyakov) and No. 100 (Cole Schwindt).

MY LIST

I don’t especially enjoy some of the attention my list has received this year, but can say the reaction has been substantial compared to recent seasons. For those who don’t know, allow me to run through how my list is compiled and what it’s meant to represent.

I use NHLE as a strong guiding light, Rob Vollman’s list is my gold standard at this time. I also use scouting reports from trusted sources and publications.

I punish average to poor foot speed liberally. My list rewards offense heavily, and the most gifted offensive players will be at the top. Players with a range of skills usually do well, but there is a fine line between a two-way player and a checking future. One of the major lessons I’ve learned over the last 15 years is that future third-line forwards have numbers that are very close to future skill line forwards. Usage, even in junior, is a tell.

The list does not give high numbers to players who have a lot of their value tied up in the defensive side of the game.

Goalies are graded (almost exclusively) by save percentage, although success over more than one season has terrific value.

I view Bob McKenzie’s list as the draft Bible, but my list does not factor in any scouts input beyond the obvious. (My list is complete before his final one). Craig Button’s list has high value for me, I like the fact he has the courage of his convictions.

Previous to the draft, I pay attention to Corey Pronman, Scott Wheeler, HockeyProspect.com, Simon Boisvert, Steve Kournianos, Brock Otten, Adam Sherren and a couple of WHL scouts who reach out to correct me when I’m wrong.

On June 1, I publish my final list. At that time, I devour Red Line Report, McKeens, ISS and any rankings I can find. I do not copy rankings (this should be fairly obvious if you look at the rankings of the scouting services) and make no claims about being a scout.

I am not a scout, my list is informed by them but only to the point where adjustments are made due to exceptional arrows up and down, plus late spikes.

This list uses math, previous draft trends (the CHL delivers enormous talent to the NHL), various pieces of anecdotal information volunteered by scouts and observers along the way, and an educated guess based on watching these things unfold since 1971.

If you enjoy it, I am pleased. If you understand the goal of my list and still trash it, there is nothing I can do for you. I wish you well in your endeavors.

Why did I publish my list today? I’ll tell you. J.D. Burke is a person I respect a great deal, and he has an enormous project launching at Elite Prospects. As part of the launch, he’ll appear on the Lowdown with me on Monday morning. J.D. sent me his list, it is sitting in my mailbox. I couldn’t look at it until posting my updates, because that would be cheating. The Elite Prospects link is here.

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

192 Responses to "A Very Important Draft"

  1. Psyche says:

    As always Lowetide, thank you very much for sharing this terrific compilation of draft information. I always appreciate your passion in this area!

    I believe the Oilers should keep the pick. The value is high with the likelihood of a quality forward prospect being available. Adding to that, the pick is protected in the next expansion draft. So, unless a GM is willing to overpay to address an area of need I wouldn’t consider trading it.

  2. jtblack says:

    WELL DONE LT! Love the work and effort on the draft.

    I say EDM keeps #8. There is a chance Dach or Cozens is still available at #8.

    Where do you have Sasha Mutala (Tri City)? I hope Edm uses a late pick on him. Tons of skill. Should tear apart WHL in draft +1 …

    cheers,

  3. Professor Q says:

    Well this is great. Thank you for this and I look forward to Monday.

    Although I do like the new formatting, I must say that the red made me think you were an angry and disappointed instructor marking inept students!

  4. Lowetide says:

    Professor Q:
    Well this is great. Thank you for this and I look forward to Monday.

    Although I do like the new formatting, I must say that the red made me think you were an angry and disappointed instructor marking inept students!

    Lol. I’m trying a few new colors, not sure if I’ll settle on a main one or rotate.

  5. Jethro Tull says:

    Every draft seems to be a big one for the Oilers. But ultimately meaningless if the talent is wasted.

    Basically, unless a new POHO/GM is chosen immediately, and they instigate sweeping reforms in scouting, drafting and development, then this is already a wasted pick. If the kid succeeds, he would have done anyway, on any team.

    I really don’t know what people are expecting from thia franchise anymore, given the huge sample size of their body of work for the last decade and a bit.

    Come and see the violence inherent in the system!

  6. Jethro Tull says:

    Lowetide: Lol. I’m trying a few new colors, not sure if I’ll settle on a main one or rotate.

    It was trippy. I’ll read it again later after a few libations. Colours have a direct link to our brain.

    Nice draft breakdown, as always.

  7. ArmchairGM says:

    Trading down 9 spots for a 3rd rounder is horrible, horrible value. The Sens traded 1 spot, not 9.

  8. The Duke of Hafford says:

    With the Gokden Knights having cap issues next year what about the No. for Alex Tuch? He’s cost controlled for 7 more years.

  9. OriginalPouzar says:

    Don’t imagine the team is looking for a #1 tender.

    The brand new contract that they signed Koskinen to hasn’t even started yet.

    They committed to this guy as the #1 and I think they are crossing their fingers on a material upswing in performance next year.

    Let’s not forget, Nicholson was express that more than just Chaiarelli was involved in the signing. With they said, he specifically mentioned the pro scouts, not Keith Gretzky.

    This is a massive gating issue for the team over the next few years.

  10. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lack of cap space really makes it tough to acquire a material player under a non ELC contract for future.

    Given the need for value contracts going forward, and explanation draft exempt assets, this is likely a good thing.

  11. OriginalPouzar says:

    Go Condors!

  12. OriginalPouzar says:

    As per Bob Mckenzie:

    Curious to see what, if any, the ripple effect is in TB. I believe TB AGM Pat Verbeek’s contract expires at end of this season and while Verbeek interviewed for GM job in EDM and wants to be a GM, he may be in a position to join Yzerman in DET. Just speculation, for now anyway.

  13. flyfish1168 says:

    Draft 100 lists I view in order of trust

    1) Bob Mackenzie
    2) Lowetide
    3) NHL scouting
    4) Redline

    rest of the groups

    100) Craig Button

    LT you do an awesome job.

  14. Brantford Boy says:

    Welcome to Windows 10…

    “It might also be used on a draft pick who will emerge in a season or two as a legit piece of a successful team. Kirby Dach. Peyton Krebs. It’s also possible the new general manager trades the pick as part of a package for a No. 1 goaltender. It can go any of several directions. How valuable is the player at No. 8?”

    Including giving it away to any team willing to take on Lucic with 25% retained…

    I did not see Ehlers good last night, and the blocked shot didn’t look good for him either… ugh, all the Canadian teams are looking to be falling out quick… playoffs may be over by Easter Monday… sad…

  15. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Don’t imagine the team is looking for a #1 tender.

    We’ll have to ask the new general manager. One way to improve in a quick hurry is to secure a goalie upgrade.

  16. flyfish1168 says:

    The Duke of Hafford: Alex Tuch

    He would be a nice add but will come at a hefty price

  17. Bryan says:

    Unless Lucic can be moved there is little choice but to make the pick and that is a good thing. Drafting is the one area that hasn’t been a complete disaster for the Oilers the last few years. When a GM is finally hired the priorities have to be exploring all avenues of escaping the Lucic contract as well as finding a trade partner for Russell which should be less difficult. Also hire someone that knows something about goalies and sign the best one they can afford. The playoffs are showing once again that it comes down to who has the best guy between the pipes. I have virtually no faith that Koskinen can be that guy.

  18. Rondo says:

    So far I think it will be between Krebs or Boldy at # 8.

  19. PinkSocks says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    As per Bob Mckenzie:

    Curious to see what, if any, the ripple effect is in TB. I believe TB AGM Pat Verbeek’s contract expires at end of this season and while Verbeek interviewed for GM job in EDM and wants to be a GM, he may be in a position to join Yzerman in DET. Just speculation, for now anyway.

    Verbeek would be at the top or certainly near the top of my list. Especially if a Gillis or even Holland could come in as POHO.

  20. PinkSocks says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Don’t imagine the team is looking for a #1 tender.

    They sure should be since they don’t have one on the roster. Okay maybe a 1B. Regardless, they need a G who can play 40-50 games

  21. Brantford Boy says:

    I’m sure I missed it in the comments yesterday, but I saw on SportsNet last night it’s been 20 years since Gretzky (#TheGreatOne) retired… wow, where did that time go… even longer ago snowmobiling through the corn fields passing Grandma Gretzky’s house in Princeton RR#2…

    Big shout out to the “Greatest” player ever… what a career!

  22. tileguy says:

    Lowetide,

    I like the colours and use a different colour when you change gears.

  23. PinkSocks says:

    Brantford Boy:
    Welcome to Windows 10…

    “It might also be used on a draft pick who will emerge in a season or two as a legit piece of a successful team. Kirby Dach. Peyton Krebs. It’s also possible the new general manager trades the pick as part of a package for a No. 1 goaltender. It can go any of several directions. How valuable is the player at No. 8?”

    Including giving it away to any team willing to take on Lucic with 25% retained…

    I did not see Ehlers good last night, and the blocked shot didn’t look good for him either… ugh, all the Canadian teams are looking to be falling out quick… playoffs may be over by Easter Monday… sad…

    It’s almost comical that with the Jets, Ehlers is even worse in the playoffs than Eberle was with the Oilers. Look at Eberle now.

    Obviously the play is #8 for Ehlers and have Ehlers come in and score every game in the 19-20 playoffs.

  24. Oil2Oilers says:

    LT is my favorite draft expert.

    What I appreciate most is the clear methodology and acknowledgement of bias. Experience has taught me that skating skills in draft picks is like goal tending in the playoffs, if you don’t got it, you don’t got it.

  25. Bryan says:

    The AHL has a decidedly unique playoff format where the first two games of the series are played in the lower ranking teams venue. I understand it is to keep travel costs down but strange nevertheless. The NHL had a 2-3-2 format for a while but that was scuttled, partially because of the Oilers success with that setup.

  26. Brantford Boy says:

    No real surprise… looks like Yzerman and Holland are out…
    https://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/nhl/yzerman-detroit-red-wings-1.5105094

  27. Lowetide says:

    For The Athletic: Red Wings front office shuffle could impact Oilers’ GM search

    https://theathletic.com/934044/2019/04/19/red-wings-front-office-shuffle-could-impact-oilers-gm-search/

  28. leeinvan says:

    Trading the pick would be dumb.
    This team needs young cheap players to help manage the cap. The team is already maxed out with the cap. Any player of any worth will be making 5-7 million and the team simply can’t afford that.
    So what they then trade the Nuge to make room for a player that maybe gets the same amount of points as the Nuge but cant play center.
    How about the team just draft players like the big boy teams do, so many superstars in this league were drafted in the 5-8 range. Trying to hit a home run throwing away a top draft pick cost the team Barzal, dont think the team or the fans want that again.
    This team needs to build from the draft, when they drafted McDavid they had all sorts of cap space and some top end talent. Most of that has all been frittered away and now they have to build from the drat again, dont see any other choice.

  29. russ99 says:

    We’re looking at 2-3 years before the player impacts the NHL level, possibly more if the pick is USHS or US U18 Dev and NCAA bound.

    We don’t have 2-3 years to rebuild and still keep McDavid. Or it’s another case of rushing a kid to the bigs in lieu of NHL talent and messing up another high pick.

    I’d trade down for an NHL player and a low 1st or a high 2nd.

  30. Darryl8843 says:

    I enjoyed this very much Al. I appreciate different views and ideas. Drafting kids has never been a exact science nor will it ever be one. There’s always different roads to get to our destination. Why anyone would ever trash you or your thoughts is beyond logic. As for our #8 pick I’d make every effort to move it for a scoring winger with term. We need to win sooner rather than later.

  31. Bryan says:

    Lowetide:
    For The Athletic: Red Wings front office shuffle could impact Oilers’ GM search

    https://theathletic.com/934044/2019/04/19/red-wings-front-office-shuffle-could-impact-oilers-gm-search/

    It is hard to know what the contributions of Verbeek have been in the organizations he has worked for but he has certainly been in environments that were professional and forward thinking. There aren’t too many proven commodities like Yzerman waiting in the wings but Verbeek could be the next Yzerman. Simply being competent would be a big step forward. If he convinces Todd Nelson to come back it would be better yet.

  32. Jethro Tull says:

    Darryl8843:
    I enjoyed this very much Al. I appreciate different views and ideas. Drafting kids has never been a exact science nor will it ever be one. There’s always different roads to get to our destination. Why anyone would ever trash you or your thoughts is beyond logic. As for our #8 pick I’d make every effort to move it for a scoring winger with term. We need to win sooner rather than later.

    LT has a better handle on it than the Oilers do and has done for years.

  33. Jethro Tull says:

    Bryan: It is hard to know what the contributions of Verbeek have been in the organizations he has worked for but he has certainly been in environments that were professional and forward thinking.There aren’t too many proven commodities like Yzerman waiting in the wings but Verbeek could be the next Yzerman. Simply being competent would be a big step forward.If he convinces Todd Nelson to come back it would be better yet.

    The Oilers may very well be forced to someone that fits their ‘culture’. The way they’ve treated people and Ralph’s remarks this week emphasize this. The fact the guys who fired a guy over skype after the most successful season in years are still here isn’t lost on the rest of the league…..

    I think there’ll be a few “thanks for thinking of me, but I have different projects I’m pursuing at this time” call backs.

  34. JimmyV1965 says:

    leeinvan:
    Trading the pick would be dumb.
    This team needs young cheap players to help manage the cap. The team is already maxed out with the cap. Any player of any worth will be making 5-7 million and the team simply can’t afford that.
    So what they then trade the Nuge to make room for a player that maybe gets the same amount of points as the Nuge but cant play center.
    How about the team just draft players like the big boy teams do, so many superstars in this league were drafted in the 5-8 range. Trying to hit a home run throwing away a top draft pick cost the team Barzal, dont think the team or the fans want that again.
    This team needs to build from the draft, when they drafted McDavid they had all sorts of cap space and some top end talent. Most of thathas all been frittered away and now they have to build from the drat again, dont see any other choice.

    I don’t think trading the first is dumb at all, for the right deal. In fact, having a player like Ehlers on the second line would make it much easier to develop young players at the NHL level. JP or Yama or Benson or whoever, will have a better chance at success if they are lining up with RNH and Ehlers, rather than RNH and Lucic or whatever warm body we have. This team is a shit show because of our complete failure to draft anyone outside the first round. This team can keep its first round picks for the next 100 years and nothing will change until we start producing players outside the first round.

  35. GMB3 says:

    I like Brayden Tracey as an early second rounder. Great production for his first year in the dub, he’s spiked massively year over year his entire hockey career.

  36. slopitch says:

    Love these lists LT!

  37. teddyturnbuckle says:

    Can’t see Oilers trading pick unless its a home run no brainer which another gm is unlikely to do. The Oilers have no cap space to take on a player worthy of the 8th pick. There is also the expansion draft also, which means the player they pick this year would be protected.

  38. teddyturnbuckle says:

    JimmyV1965,

    slopitch:
    Love these lists LT!

    Oliers have lots of misses in first round also. J.P. ,Yak, Magnus P, maybe Yamamoto

  39. JimmyV1965 says:

    russ99:
    We’re looking at 2-3 years before the player impacts the NHL level, possibly more if the pick is USHS or US U18 Dev and NCAA bound.

    We don’t have 2-3 years to rebuild and still keep McDavid. Or it’s another case of rushing a kid to the bigs in lieu of NHL talent and messing up another high pick.

    I’d trade down for an NHL player and a low 1st or a high 2nd.

    Totally agree with this. A smart GM can possibly do it without trading the first though. I am also much much more worried about losing RNH right now, than McDavid.

  40. Bryan says:

    Jethro Tull: The Oilers may very well be forced to someone that fits their ‘culture’. The way they’ve treated people and Ralph’s remarks this week emphasize this. The fact the guys who fired a guy over skype after the most successful season in years are still here isn’t lost on the rest of the league…..

    I think there’ll be a few “thanks for thinking of me, but I have different projects I’m pursuing at this time” call backs.

    For sure some people will not be interested but there are only 31 of these positions and some of those are locked up very long term. Ralph has more potential opportunities in front of him because of the diverse and interesting career he has had. Most people won’t turn down a chance at being the GM of an NHL team. Also Connor McDavid.

  41. godot10 says:

    The Duke of Hafford:
    With the Gokden Knights having cap issues next year what about the No. for Alex Tuch?He’s cost controlled for 7 more years.

    I think David Clarkson will be on his way to Ottawa in a cap space trade, maybe with an actual player too.

  42. JimmyV1965 says:

    teddyturnbuckle:
    JimmyV1965,

    Oliers have lots of misses in first round also.J.P. ,Yak, Magnus P, maybe Yamamoto

    Don’t forget 2007. Three first round draft picks and only Gagner to show for it.

  43. Professor Q says:

    JimmyV1965: I don’t think trading the first is dumb at all, for the right deal. In fact, having a player like Ehlers on the second line would make it much easier to develop young players at the NHL level. JP or Yama or Benson or whoever, will have a better chance at success if they are lining up with RNH and Ehlers, rather than RNH and Lucic or whatever warm body we have. This team is a shit show because of our complete failure to draft anyone outside the first round. This team can keep its first round picks for the next 100 years and nothing will change until we start producing players outside the first round.

    The only issue is that trading the 1st means you lose 2 or more players, rather than 1.

    The Expansion Draft should be properly planned for in advance. Intelligent GMs need apply.

  44. Maoriduvpoojt says:

    LT said: “What this means, initially, is that the Oilers could trade down from No. 8 to (say) No. 12 if there’s an opportunity to add a pick. Let’s say the new general manager trades No. 8 for No. 17 and No. 67 (Ottawa traded No. 12 and No. 73 in 2016 for No. 11). Would that give the team real value?”

    Given what I know, based on everything I’ve learned on your fine blog, I think if you trade out of the top 10, you should get a 2nd rounder, plus a 4th or 5th. For example if they were to trade with Ottawa, I would want #19 & #32 + 125.

    If we were to stay in the top 10, say trade for #10 with Vancouver + #71 would be a reasonable ask,, but that still comes with risk, so my ask would be #8 + #90 for #10 + #40.

  45. godot10 says:

    russ99:
    We’re looking at 2-3 years before the player impacts the NHL level, possibly more if the pick is USHS or US U18 Dev and NCAA bound.

    We don’t have 2-3 years to rebuild and still keep McDavid. Or it’s another case of rushing a kid to the bigs in lieu of NHL talent and messing up another high pick.

    I’d trade down for an NHL player and a low 1st or a high 2nd.

    If one trades a pick like Cozens or Krebs, the Oilers won’t be competitive in two or three years.

    Why would one want Ehlers if one can pick Krebs. Trade a much lower value asset for Perreault…or JT Miller out of Tampa.

    Look for salary cap dumps who are good players at bargain prices.

  46. Jethro Tull says:

    Bryan: For sure some people will not be interested but there are only 31 of these positions and some of those are locked up very long term.Ralph has more potential opportunities in front of him because of the diverse and interesting career he has had.Most people won’t turn down a chance at being the GM of an NHL team.Also Connor McDavid.

    There is only one carrot for the GM job here and it isn’t McDavid. It’s getting to run your own team. Now, if the Oilers verbal about Pete being a lone wolf, then whoever the next guy is won’t have carte blanche. He’ll have to run things through…..guess who?

  47. Jethro Tull says:

    godot10: If one trades a pick like Cozens or Krebs, the Oilers won’t be competitive in two or three years.

    Why would one want Ehlers if one can pick Krebs.Trade a much lower value asset for Perreault…or JT Miller out of Tampa.

    Look for salary cap dumps who are good players at bargain prices.

    Who would want Ehlers indeed. At least with circular logic ypu get to start again from the same place.

  48. Lowetide says:

    Btw, I haven’t forgotten and will have a GDT up around4pm.

  49. Professor Q says:

    Jethro Tull: There is only one carrot for the GM job here and it isn’t McDavid. It’s getting to run your own team. Now, if the Oilers verbal about Pete being a lone wolf, then whoever the next guy is won’t have carte blanche. He’ll have to run things through…..guess who?

    Yep. The same guy who cut ties with a good man in Krueger and caused him to state that that bridge is burned.

    It is likely that many other bridges have been burned, too.

  50. Bag of Pucks says:

    Bryan:
    Unless Lucic can be moved there is little choice but to make the pick and that is a good thing.Drafting is the one area that hasn’t been a complete disaster for the Oilers the last few years.When a GM is finally hired the priorities have to be exploring all avenues of escaping the Lucic contract as well as finding a trade partner for Russell which should be less difficult.Also hire someone that knows something about goalies and sign the best one they can afford.The playoffs are showing once again that it comes down to who has the best guy between the pipes.I have virtually no faith that Koskinen can be that guy.

    Yakupov. Puljujarvi. Yamamoto.

    I don’t know why there’s so much verbal that the Oilers amateur drafting is acceptable.

    By my eye, there’s still lots of room for improvement. The examples above would be 3 contributing roster players by now on a solid drafting team. I don’t think we can hang it all on development.

  51. powerploy says:

    hard to predict anything on 1 years play especially for a goalie, and esp. if its his first year. The money paid suggest he is their #1 guy so unless they trade him they are looking for a number 2 who can play substantial # games. So far there is good evidence to suggest he can’t handle so many games/year and eps. not next night games. Cap suggests they can’t afford to pay big bucks for another #1 goalie, so unless new GM can make a real good trade I think the priorities will be up front and maybe another good defenceman, Once he gets the team going in the right direction and making the playoffs then securing a good goalie duo for long term, is in the future. Lets face it first step is getting good enough to make playoffs, Next step is being able to last long in playoffs, and good goaltending is imperative for that. Who knows after another year in NHl our number 1 may prove to be that. One thing is for sure we tend to give up on goalies too soon.

  52. Bag of Pucks says:

    godot10: If one trades a pick like Cozens or Krebs, the Oilers won’t be competitive in two or three years.

    Why would one want Ehlers if one can pick Krebs.Trade a much lower value asset for Perreault…or JT Miller out of Tampa.

    Look for salary cap dumps who are good players at bargain prices.

    Agree. The new GM needs value contracts and lots of them. How much you want to bet they go whale hunting instead through?

  53. godot10 says:

    Tentatively my plan is something like this.

    Keep the pics. Draft Byram, Cozens, or Krebs.

    Trade Benning (Tampa has a done of expiring contracts of old D…they will have need for a cheap 3rd pairing RD) for JT Miller or Yanni Gourde.

    Trade Kassian for Mike Hoffman.

    Out Benning and Kassian and maybe a couple of mid round draft picks. In Hoffman, JT Miller, and Krebs/Cozens.

    Roughly…
    JT Miller, McDavid, Draisaitl
    Hoffman, Nugent-Hopkins,Chiasson
    Khaira, Marody, Puljujarvi
    Gamberdella, Cave, Gagner
    Lucic, Brodziak

  54. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    Brantford Boy:
    Welcome to Windows 10…

    “It might also be used on a draft pick who will emerge in a season or two as a legit piece of a successful team. Kirby Dach. Peyton Krebs. It’s also possible the new general manager trades the pick as part of a package for a No. 1 goaltender. It can go any of several directions. How valuable is the player at No. 8?”

    Including giving it away to any team willing to take on Lucic with 25% retained…

    I did not see Ehlers good last night, and the blocked shot didn’t look good for him either… ugh, all the Canadian teams are looking to be falling out quick… playoffs may be over by Easter Monday… sad…

    I don’t know about you, but I’m glad they’re all bowing out.

    Translation: ONLY THE OILERS CAN BE THE TEAM TO RETURN STANLEY TO CANADA!!!

  55. godot10 says:

    Bag of Pucks: Yakupov. Puljujarvi. Yamamoto.

    I don’t know why there’s so much verbal that the Oilers amateur drafting is acceptable.

    By my eye, there’s still lots of room for improvement. The examples above would be 3 contributing roster players by now on a solid drafting team. I don’t think we can hang it all on development.

    The scouting staff didn’t want Yakupov, and they leaked to everyone that they didn’t want him.

    Their pick was Ryan Murray.

  56. Fuge Udvar says:

    Professor Q: The only issue is that trading the 1st means you lose 2 or more players, rather than 1.

    The Expansion Draft should be properly planned for in advance. Intelligent GMs need apply.

    How so? We might lose a better player but they can still only select one.

  57. Jethro Tull says:

    godot10:
    Tentatively my plan is something like this.

    Keep the pics.Draft Byram, Cozens, or Krebs.

    Trade Benning (Tampa has a done of expiring contracts of old D…they will have need for a cheap 3rd pairing RD) for JT Miller or Yanni Gourde.

    Trade Kassian for Mike Hoffman.

    Out Benning and Kassian and maybe a couple of mid round draft picks.In Hoffman, JT Miller, and Krebs/Cozens.

    It’s a good sensible plan. But we had a saying in the army:

    A good plan never survives the first fuck up.

  58. Professor Q says:

    Fuge Udvar: How so? We might lose a better player but they can still only select one.

    …because you traded the pick + others for a player that needs to be protected.

    Using good logic, you’ve traded a picked player that didn’t need to be protected, and now have to (or should, if it was a good trade) use a protection slot for the player you just traded for, instead of a better current (at the time) roster player.

    The Oilers are already behind with a lot of NMCs. They can not afford to give up value contracts and players who won’t have to be protected for players who may or may not work out in Edmonton.

    Otherwise you end up in the same situation as Columbus, Pittsburgh, Florida, Anaheim, etc. who traded good players and good picks to an Expansion Team in order to have the honour to gift the Expansion Team another good player, in lieu of a different one.

  59. Fuge Udvar says:

    Bag of Pucks: Yakupov. Puljujarvi. Yamamoto.

    I don’t know why there’s so much verbal that the Oilers amateur drafting is acceptable.

    By my eye, there’s still lots of room for improvement. The examples above would be 3 contributing roster players by now on a solid drafting team. I don’t think we can hang it all on development.

    This feels very revisionist. Nobody was predicting that Yakupov would be that big of a bust. Maybe overrated but he was near the top on every list. Puljujarvi was a consensus number 3 pick. It was a shock when Columbus didn’t select him.

    If you think those picks were due to poor scouting then why did everybody have them ranked so high?

  60. HenryDrix says:

    It’s nice to know that some people still frown upon cheating. You are a good and honest man Lowetide.

  61. Ben says:

    re: James Neal scratch

    EVERY time I hear any detail about a player not living up to a long, pricey contract I immediately wonder if we could trade Lucic for them.

    Also: holy shit what happened to James Neal. And obviously you do the deal: it’s a $2M buyout per year for seven years.

  62. Bulging Twine says:

    Darren Dreger

    Verified account

    @DarrenDreger
    Following Following @DarrenDreger
    More
    No doubt Yzerman wants Holland to remain with the Red Wings. He and Holland are very close. However, sources say Holland has been contacted by other teams, including Edmonton and Seattle.

  63. PinkSocks says:

    godot10: If one trades a pick like Cozens or Krebs, the Oilers won’t be competitive in two or three years.

    Why would one want Ehlers if one can pick Krebs.Trade a much lower value asset for Perreault…or JT Miller out of Tampa.

    Look for salary cap dumps who are good players at bargain prices.

    Because if you can actually get Ehlers for JUST the pick it is a 23 year old top line player when Krebs may or may not pan out. Of course it’s really all contingent on Lucic finding a new home. And Ehlers would cost #8 + something, like Benson. That would be a poor decision IMO.

    Other than that, I agree with you, taking a JT Miller / Gourde more a lesser asset, if possible, is the right call. Still needs a bunch of salary moving out.

  64. Rebillled says:

    Goalies are not important to Edmonton.

    Keeping old boys relevant is job 1.

    Nicholson is gonna fuck up this draft in some way, shape, or form.

    Book it.

  65. GMB3 says:

    Bag of Pucks: Yakupov. Puljujarvi. Yamamoto.

    I don’t know why there’s so much verbal that the Oilers amateur drafting is acceptable.

    By my eye, there’s still lots of room for improvement. The examples above would be 3 contributing roster players by now on a solid drafting team. I don’t think we can hang it all on development.

    Really? JP was the consensus third overall pick, Yakupov a consensus first overall. Yamamoto was an attempt at hitting a home run as his draft year numbers were excellent for a player picked in his slot

  66. Fuge Udvar says:

    Professor Q,

    A definite possibility but we could still end up in that situation even if we keep the pick. There is no guarantee we end up in that situation if we do trade the pick.

  67. PinkSocks says:

    Bag of Pucks: Yakupov. Puljujarvi. Yamamoto.

    I don’t know why there’s so much verbal that the Oilers amateur drafting is acceptable.

    By my eye, there’s still lots of room for improvement. The examples above would be 3 contributing roster players by now on a solid drafting team. I don’t think we can hang it all on development.

    A majority of teams in Edmonton’s position would have picked Yakupov & JP in those draft positions. It just hasn’t worked out for either player, but to lay Yak and JP on the scouts I believe is overly critical considering the circumstances.

    NO ONE was taking the actual best player in that draft, Filip Forsberg, first overall. That draft was wretched and 7 years later, a redraft would have the most shuffling of any draft I can remember. The 4th round of that draft produced Gustafsson (fuck), Athanasiou, Slavin, and Josh Anderson.

    JP’s draft, who were the Oil going to take? The only legitimate options would have been Tkachuk, Sergachev, or Keller. Any of these picks in lieu of JP being available and the Oilers would have been crucified.

  68. Professor Q says:

    Fuge Udvar: This feels very revisionist. Nobody was predicting that Yakupov would be that big of a bust. Maybe overrated but he was near the top on every list. Puljujarvi was a consensus number 3 pick. It was a shock when Columbus didn’t select him.

    If you think those picks were due to poor scouting then why did everybody have them ranked so high?

    And he was doing pretty well with McDavid (and Roy) before being tossed.

    He needed support and to play with skill more consistently, in order to develop into a decent support player.

    However, if I remember correctly, the Edmonton Scouts were 9 votes for Murray, 1 vote for Galchenyuk, and 1 vote for Yakupov.

    Then they decided to go for Yakupov anyway.

  69. PinkSocks says:

    Rebillled:
    Goalies are not important to Edmonton.

    Keeping old boys relevant is job 1.

    Nicholson is gonna fuck up this draft in some way, shape, or form.

    Book it.

    I would posit that as much as I dislike Burger Bob, I don’t think his input will be botching this draft. And Koskinen, as vile as each of his two contracts have been, deserves another season to prove his worth when he doesn’t have a ridiculous run of consecutive starts burning him out at the end of the season. A sensible 1B option makes the most sense to offer some cover and to start 30 games.

  70. PinkSocks says:

    Professor Q: And he was doing pretty well with McDavid (and Roy) before being tossed.

    He needed support and to play with skill more consistently, in order to develop into a decent support player.

    Precisely. Played well with McDavid until the linesman broke Yak’s ankle, and found his game with Roy. I’m not of the belief that Yakupov was the reason for his own demise. Eakins clearly mind fucked him, and TMac gave him zero consistency in the lineup. Nelson and Kreuger? The 2 best coaches for the Oil in the past 13 years had Yak rolling with confidence and proper linemates.

  71. PinkSocks says:

    Bryan: It is hard to know what the contributions of Verbeek have been in the organizations he has worked for but he has certainly been in environments that were professional and forward thinking.There aren’t too many proven commodities like Yzerman waiting in the wings but Verbeek could be the next Yzerman. Simply being competent would be a big step forward.If he convinces Todd Nelson to come back it would be better yet.

    Verbeek + Nelson would be a tremendous offseason.

    So cue up Kretzky and Hitchcock.

  72. PinkSocks says:

    Jethro Tull: It’s a good sensible plan. But we had a saying in the army:

    A good plan never survives the first fuck up.

    What about 12 out of 13 fuckups?

  73. smellyglove says:

    TSN: “Hours after reporting teams have contacted Ken Holland, including the Edmonton Oilers and Seattle, TSN Hockey Insider Darren Dreger reported it’s believed Holland has withdrawn his name from consideration for the Oilers’ GM job.”

    Yeah, Holland says No to Draining the Swamp on Kingsway.

  74. YKOil says:

    The 8th offers a lot of opportunity for Edmonton.

    1. Taking the pick as is – great move s it is a high-value pick and expansion draft protected

    2. Trading the pick, straight up, to fill a spot can be a great move as guys like Ehlers and Huberdeau are hard to find and we’ll have room to protect a forward (or goalie) on a standard expansion draft list

    3. Trading back for more picks (a later 1st, a 2nd and a 4th type trades) isn’t a bad deal per se as the 8th is just out of the premium portion of the draft (for me: Hughes, Kakko, Cozens, Dach, Byram) and there are a lot of good players available later on (Knight, Soderstrom, Kaliyev Lavoie) and having another shot at a goalie-of-the-future (Knight or Sogaard) isn’t a bad thing

    4. Trading back also allows for more marginal draft pick-ups combined with another strategic goal – this is where the Oilers have identified a player on another team (Marody, Aberg, etc, types) that can help sooner rather than later OR where the Oilers need space for a UFA signing and so dumping Manning (per se) is part of the deal (i.e. a much later 1st or very early 2nd, pick up a player OR dump Manning, and a 3rd type of trade)

    5. Trading back also allows for a much bigger deal, picking up a player like Hoffman with a pick (Edm 1st and Khaira to Florida for Hoffman, Pitts 2 and Edm 3rd) or dumping a bigger salary (Lucic, Edm 1st and Islander 3rd to Ottawa for CBJ 1st and Condon – Lucic post July 1 of course); and lest you think this is bad for Ottawa, the 8th is a far better building block for a rebuild than a late, maybe really late, CBJ pick*

    6. Edmonton can inquire about a trade up but I expect that to cost more than it is worth… though I really, really like Cozens and Byram outside the top-two

    * for the record, unless Edmonton is on the ball re: Ottawa, I expect Tampa (Callahan) or Vegas (Clarkson) or, now, Detroit (Daley, Helm), to outmaneuver Edmonton and fill Ottawa’s Cap need first

    I like where Edmonton sits here. LOTS and LOTS of options to my mind. My favs are options (in order) 1, 2, 3 and 5

  75. Professor Q says:

    Sekera is not in the Masterton Trophy Finals.

    Foligno, Lehner, and Thornton are the Final Three.

    I have no idea why Thornton is there, but of these three it does seem like Lehner should be awarded the Masterton.

  76. YKOil says:

    PinkSocks: Verbeek + Nelson would be a tremendous offseason.

    So cue up Kretzky and Hitchcock.

    Agreed on both counts.

  77. Bag of Pucks says:

    godot10: The scouting staff didn’t want Yakupov, and they leaked to everyone that they didn’t want him.

    Their pick was Ryan Murray.

    Ryan Murray is hardly proof of competence.

  78. Professor Q says:

    Bag of Pucks: Ryan Murray is hardly proof of competence.

    Hey, one scout did want Galchenyuk.

    I wonder if they had chosen him, if he’d have worked out better than in Montréal, or if the Oilers could have traded for him Domi as well.

    Albeit, no McDavid, so…

  79. Bag of Pucks says:

    Fuge Udvar: This feels very revisionist. Nobody was predicting that Yakupov would be that big of a bust. Maybe overrated but he was near the top on every list. Puljujarvi was a consensus number 3 pick. It was a shock when Columbus didn’t select him.

    If you think those picks were due to poor scouting then why did everybody have them ranked so high?

    Because consensus rankings are a flawed methodology that encourages talent evaluators to follow the herd. When there’s safety in numbers, you can whiff on 3 picks and still insist you made the right choices.

    The more trenchant point is the 3 whiffs and not the rationales and excuses. Results matter.

  80. Bulging Twine says:

    smellyglove:
    TSN: “Hours after reporting teams have contacted Ken Holland, including the Edmonton Oilers and Seattle, TSN Hockey Insider Darren Dreger reported it’s believed Holland has withdrawn his name from consideration for the Oilers’ GM job.”

    Yeah, Holland says No to Draining the Swamp on Kingsway.

    ren Dreger

    Verified account

    @DarrenDreger
    2h2 hours ago
    More
    As much as Ken Holland would have been a high quality option for the Oilers GM job, it’s believed he’s withdrawn his name from consideration. Seattle is intriguing for sure.

  81. JimmyV1965 says:

    Professor Q: The only issue is that trading the 1st means you lose 2 or more players, rather than 1.

    The Expansion Draft should be properly planned for in advance. Intelligent GMs need apply.

    Of course you have to plan for the expansion draft, but it doesn’t trump team building. I would rather have a good team and lose a good player than a bad team and lose a bad player. Last time around the Oilers lost Reinhart. Why? Because we had a bad team. As it stands now, the Oilers only have three forwards worth protecting. And if we lose RNH that drops to two.

  82. JimmyV1965 says:

    godot10: If one trades a pick like Cozens or Krebs, the Oilers won’t be competitive in two or three years.

    Why would one want Ehlers if one can pick Krebs.Trade a much lower value asset for Perreault…or JT Miller out of Tampa.

    Look for salary cap dumps who are good players at bargain prices.

    If you can trade the 8OV for Ehlers you run, don’t walk. You’re just hoping the pick will become Ehlers. Unfortunately, I don’t think that trade is happening. The Jets will figure out a way to keep him.

  83. Fuge Udvar says:

    What’s the consensus around here on Yamamoto so far? It’s pretty disappointing to see people here already calling him a potential bust after one injury riddled professional season. He still went 10-8-18 in 27gp. That’s a pretty good goal rate for a first time pro for an organization desperate for goal scorers.

    Take a look at his draft year so far: http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2017e.html

    It’s not like he is falling behind his draft class. Not in the slightest. I think we were all in agreement that this style of player (aka small) will need more development time. All these years of people complaining about rushing prospects and preaching patience. And yet here we are! How about we try not running prospects out of town for a change

  84. Jethro Tull says:

    Bulging Twine: ren Dreger

    Verified account

    @DarrenDreger2h2 hours ago
    More
    As much as Ken Holland would have been a high quality option for the Oilers GM job, it’s believed he’s withdrawn his name from consideration. Seattle is intriguing for sure.

    No one wants to drink from the poison challace, eh?

    Hear that grinding? Someone’s sharpening the sword of Damocles, only this one is mounted point up under the GM’s chair. Take a seat, do.

  85. Bryan says:

    PinkSocks: A majority of teams in Edmonton’s position would have picked Yakupov & JP in those draft positions. It just hasn’t worked out for either player, but to lay Yak and JP on the scouts I believe is overly critical considering the circumstances.

    NO ONE was taking the actual best player in that draft, Filip Forsberg, first overall.That draft was wretched and 7 years later, a redraft would have the most shuffling of any draft I can remember. The 4th round of that draft produced Gustafsson (fuck), Athanasiou, Slavin, and Josh Anderson.

    JP’s draft, who were the Oil going to take?The only legitimate options would have been Tkachuk, Sergachev, or Keller. Any of these picks in lieu of JP being available and the Oilers would have been crucified.

    Exactly.

  86. JimmyV1965 says:

    godot10:
    Tentatively my plan is something like this.

    Keep the pics.Draft Byram, Cozens, or Krebs.

    Trade Benning (Tampa has a done of expiring contracts of old D…they will have need for a cheap 3rd pairing RD) for JT Miller or Yanni Gourde.

    Trade Kassian for Mike Hoffman.

    Out Benning and Kassian and maybe a couple of mid round draft picks.In Hoffman, JT Miller, and Krebs/Cozens.

    Roughly…
    JT Miller, McDavid, Draisaitl
    Hoffman, Nugent-Hopkins,Chiasson
    Khaira, Marody, Puljujarvi
    Gamberdella, Cave, Gagner
    Lucic, Brodziak

    Would much prefer these trades instead of moving the 8OV. And they seem somewhat realistic. However, you can’t simply say the 8OV is untouchable.

  87. Bryan says:

    Fuge Udvar:
    What’s the consensus around here on Yamamoto so far? It’s pretty disappointing to see people here already calling him a potential bust after one injury riddled professional season. He still went 10-8-18 in 27gp. That’s a pretty good goal rate for a first time pro for an organization desperate for goal scorers.

    Take a look at his draft year so far: http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2017e.html

    It’s not like he is falling behind his draft class. Not in the slightest. I think we were all in agreement that this style of player (aka small) will need more development time. All these years of people complaining about rushing prospects and preaching patience. And yet here we are! How about we try not running prospects out of town for a change

    Also let’s wait and see what JP can do after hip surgery. Anyone who has tried skating with a sore hip or groin would know it is not conducive to good performance. Hopefully a coach who understands how to instill confidence in young players is put in place and good results follow. Writing off these young men so quickly is ridiculous.

  88. JimmyV1965 says:

    Bag of Pucks: Because consensus rankings are a flawed methodology that encourages talent evaluators to follow the herd. When there’s safety in numbers, you can whiff on 3 picks and still insist you made the right choices.

    The more trenchant point is the 3 whiffs and not the rationales and excuses. Results matter.

    I think it’s easy to talk a big game like this from your keyboard years later. Much different if you’re actually making the picks.

  89. Fuge Udvar says:

    Bag of Pucks: Because consensus rankings are a flawed methodology that encourages talent evaluators to follow the herd. When there’s safety in numbers, you can whiff on 3 picks and still insist you made the right choices.

    The more trenchant point is the 3 whiffs and not the rationales and excuses. Results matter.

    Obviously these established scouts see something in these players to rank them where they are. Will the scouts be influenced by each other? Of course. But they are the experts and obviously know a little something in talent evaluation.

    Saying that those 3 picks were wrong is straight up revisionist history. Puljujarvi absolutely tore the cover off the ball in the WJC that year and won MVP of the tournament. Are you saying the scouts should have seen through that as an anomaly? He also had a solid season in the top Finnish pro league to boot.

    Also calling Yamamoto a whiff at this point is just being ridiculous. Go look at the 2017 draft and tell me who drafted after him is head and shoulders ahead of him. Here is a list of 22OA picks and how they did in the NHL in their draft+2 year:
    2016 German Rubstov 0gp
    2015 Ilya Samsonov 0gp in NHL (goalie so doesn’t really count)
    2014 Kasperi Kapanen 9gp 0-0-0
    2013 Emile Poirier 2gp 0-0-0
    2012 Olli Maata 79gp 9-20-29
    2011 Tyler Biggs 0gp

  90. Bag of Pucks says:

    JimmyV1965: I think it’s easy to talk a big game like this from your keyboard years later.Much different if you’re actually making the picks.

    Says the guy talking a big game from the anonymity of his keyboard. lol

  91. Scungilli Slushy says:

    godot10: If one trades a pick like Cozens or Krebs, the Oilers won’t be competitive in two or three years.

    Why would one want Ehlers if one can pick Krebs.Trade a much lower value asset for Perreault…or JT Miller out of Tampa.

    Look for salary cap dumps who are good players at bargain prices.

    Too smart for the current Oilers

    My concern is trading valuable assets and finding Ehlers way plays below par because Oilers and nothing important changed

  92. Lowetide says:

    Fuge Udvar:
    What’s the consensus around here on Yamamoto so far? It’s pretty disappointing to see people here already calling him a potential bust after one injury riddled professional season. He still went 10-8-18 in 27gp. That’s a pretty good goal rate for a first time pro for an organization desperate for goal scorers.

    Take a look at his draft year so far: http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2017e.html

    It’s not like he is falling behind his draft class. Not in the slightest. I think we were all in agreement that this style of player (aka small) will need more development time. All these years of people complaining about rushing prospects and preaching patience. And yet here we are! How about we try not running prospects out of town for a change

    I like to wait five years. I do think the worries about Yamamoto (injuries being one) have more arrows but imo he’s a guy the Oilers will employ as a regular by 2020 IF he stays healthy. There’s just too much offense.

  93. Oilman99 says:

    JimmyV1965: If you can trade the 8OV for Ehlers you run, don’t walk. You’re just hoping the pick will become Ehlers. Unfortunately, I don’t think that trade is happening. The Jets will figure out a way to keep him.

    Ehlers for the #8pick is a big overpay, he is not a first liner, a second round pick at the most.

  94. Scungilli Slushy says:

    How smart is Verbeek? Is Tampa just riding luck in how dominant Hedman turned out to be when healthy and Vas turning out so good (most of the time)?

    Because their forwards are really unbalanced IMO and trades for forwards haven’t panned out that well.

    Proof is in the pudding at this point. They can’t find a way to get over the final hurdle. I say this having not drank the Lightning koolaid at all this season, not just going by the sweep. Things are very different in the second season when far more cheating is allowed.

    Sort of like when I said that Gaudreau isn’t an elite player, although very good, and somebody here thought that was wrong.

  95. Ben says:

    Oilman99: Ehlers for the #8pick is a big overpay, he is not a first liner, a second round pick at the most.

    If (and IF is the key word when discussing pick trades) you took Krebs at 8 and four years from now he put up 25 goal/60+ point seasons you wouldn’t think that was a quality pick at 8? Come on now…

  96. YKOil says:

    JimmyV1965: I think it’s easy to talk a big game like this from your keyboard years later.Much different if you’re actually making the picks.

    JP was bypassed NOT because Columbus was soooo smart that they considered him a bust or lesser prospect, he was bypassed because Columbus desperately needed another centre and they considered Dubois as having better long-term upside than most other teams (they had him as a possible 1st line centre, if helped, while most had him as, at best, 2nd line). Would have picked JP without question.

    Yakupov is a different deal, at least for me. In a draft like that, shallow and with questions everywhere, I try to trade down (as far as #20 if need be) and try fix something in the process – goaltending prospect depth, defense – depth or roster, etc. I can’t say that I would be smart enough to pick Vasilevskiy – probably Subban – but the 1st always has outsized value of some kind and so I shop hard to maximize that return.

  97. Fuge Udvar says:

    Bryan,

    Agreed. I still have high hopes for him. Even if he is destined to be a 3rd line checking winger he has all the tools to be one hell of a 3rd line checking winger. They even said when he was being drafted that he was probably going to take a little longer to develop. Which makes his handling even more bizarre.

    For the record I think he will be much better than a a 3rd line winger.

  98. Oilman99 says:

    PinkSocks: Precisely.Played well with McDavid until the linesman broke Yak’s ankle, and found his game with Roy.I’m not of the belief that Yakupov was the reason for his own demise.Eakins clearly mind fucked him, and TMac gave him zero consistency in the lineup.Nelson and Kreuger?The 2 best coaches for the Oil in the past 13 years had Yak rolling with confidence and proper linemates.

    Edmonton was not the only team where Yakupov failed, he was a one dimensional player with zero hockey sense that couldn’t,or wouldn’t lean the defensive side of the game.

  99. Scungilli Slushy says:

    So when all of the best GM options say no thanks, is there a LLoyd Christmas chance that Burgers says to Katz ‘we have to change things up, nobody wants the job’?

    Probably just means Kretzky gets it by default.

  100. dustrock says:

    GMB3:
    I like Brayden Tracey as an early second rounder. Great production for his first year in the dub, he’s spiked massively year over year his entire hockey career.

    Nice one. He could be a Jordan Eberle I think.

  101. PinkSocks says:

    Oilman99: Ehlers for the #8pick is a big overpay, he is not a first liner, a second round pick at the most.

    Come on…

  102. Reja says:

    Crazy Pedestrian: I don’t know about you, but I’m glad they’re all bowing out.

    Translation:ONLY THE OILERS CAN BE THE TEAM TO RETURN STANLEY TO CANADA!!!

    Yea Leafs Jets and especially Flames fans should look in the dictionary where sympathy falls before and after. I sure hope the Avs can continue the ring around the rosie in Calgary’s end that the Flames can’t figure out and I also hope the Big Bad Bruins kick the crap out of the mighty Leafs tonight.

  103. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Oilman99: Edmonton was not the only team where Yakupov failed, he was a one dimensional player with zero hockey sense that couldn’t,or wouldn’t lean the defensive side of the game.

    This and that he didn’t have enough offense or a good enough shot to play the game he wanted to play which was essentially being Ovi or Laine. Not many guys ever stay in the league playing like that (one way waiting for a set up, everyone else doing the grunt work) because so very few players are elite pure scorers.

    And their teams don’t win typically in the playoffs anyway, there is no room for passengers anymore. When the Caps won it was largely because Ovi was invested and playing 200 ft (and Holtby recovered). They won’t win another Cup if he’s not doing that IMO. It’s what you score minus what you give up.

  104. dustrock says:

    Just want to remind that Blue Bullet Brad has his rankings out. The gap from 8 to 9 is basically the same as 4 to 8. Meaning you’re losing a ton of value out of the top 8.

    http://bluebulletreport.com/2019/04/11/2019-nhl-entry-draft-rankings-april/

    Hughes Score 110.00
    Kakko 84.42
    Byram 68.38
    Cozens 51.55
    Turcotte 50.17
    Zegras 46.86
    Podkolzin 44.94
    Dach 42.78

    Krebs 30.71

    That’s a pretty large drop.

  105. russ99 says:

    JimmyV1965,

    I’m not, I think it’s inevitable that RNH won’t be back once he hits FA, either he doesn’t want to resign here, which nobody would blame him for – or the team can’t meet what he wants under the cap.

    Would really prefer that not to happen until next season’s trade deadline at the soonest, we don’t have anyone that can replace him and that Connor-Leon pairing puts up way too many points to split them up.

    Also the new GM has to prove his trade mettle before trading away a quality player and a fan favorite.

  106. russ99 says:

    Lowetide,

    I think a full year at the AHL without too much time lost to injury will really help Yamamoto, especially if Marody and or Benson move up and he gets top line ice time.

  107. YKOil says:

    Oilman99: Ehlers for the #8pick is a big overpay, he is not a first liner, a second round pick at the most.

    Complete disagreement. Ehlers is a complete player that gives us, at the least, one elite line and one high-end line, right now. At a decent salary/Cap charge that goes on and on.

    He and Huberdeau would be my targets were I to look at a straight up trade for a player NOW. Would also look at a re-signed Kreider (pending $) and at Nylander (Toronto version – and yes, I know, never happen).

  108. Reja says:

    Professor Q: …because you traded the pick + others for a player that needs to be protected.

    Using good logic, you’ve traded a picked player that didn’t need to be protected, and now have to (or should, if it was a good trade) use a protection slot for the player you just traded for, instead of a better current (at the time) roster player.

    The Oilers are already behind with a lot of NMCs. They can not afford to give up value contracts and players who won’t have to be protected for players who may or may not work out in Edmonton.

    Otherwise you end up in the same situation as Columbus, Pittsburgh, Florida, Anaheim, etc. who traded good players and good picks to an Expansion Team in order to have the honour to gift the Expansion Team another good player, in lieu of a different one.

    The only way I see the first being dealt is with a bad contract and a winger coming back no way they deal no 8 without dumping heavy cap space Lucic etc

  109. PinkSocks says:

    Oilman99: Edmonton was not the only team where Yakupov failed, he was a one dimensional player with zero hockey sense that couldn’t,or wouldn’t lean the defensive side of the game.

    However Edmonton was where he key years of development took place. Eakins destroyed him and TMac put on the final touches. A player who scores 17 in his draft +1 in a lockout shortened season does not magically lose his touch without circumstances beyond his control.

    One dimensional, sure, but that dimension was scoring. Ovechkin isn’t on the ice in the defensive zone when the Caps are protecting a lead. If a player has one dimension to his game which is scoring, the HC is responsible for finding ways to use that dimension and making the player and team successful. By the time Yakupov stopped of in St Louis and Denver, he was not near the player he was in his draft +1.

  110. Professor Q says:

    Jets fans see Ehlers as a Poor Man’s McDavid.

    Skilled, but not as skilled as McDavid, fast, but not as fast as McDavid, and softer than McDavid as well.

    Could work, but also could not. Could the fit be better, even with criticisms that would harken back to the Eberle days?

  111. YKOil says:

    PinkSocks: Precisely.Played well with McDavid until the linesman broke Yak’s ankle, and found his game with Roy.I’m not of the belief that Yakupov was the reason for his own demise.Eakins clearly mind fucked him, and TMac gave him zero consistency in the lineup.Nelson and Kreuger?The 2 best coaches for the Oil in the past 13 years had Yak rolling with confidence and proper linemates.

    This is, pretty much, my position on Yak as well. He did well under Krueger in 2012-13 on a team that was, mostly, veteran-ish and then after that was Eakins and then we seemed to enter line-blender land and he was never the same since (excepting flashes with McDavid and Roy).

    No different from JP to my mind. The team’s culture seems to lack to nurturing gene and so players that need consistency and structure get f*(ked. Great way to ruin a team.

  112. Reja says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    So when all of the best GM options say no thanks, is there a LLoyd Christmas chance that Burgers says to Katz ‘we have to change things up, nobody wants the job’?

    Probably just means Kretzky gets it by default.

    Keith will be sold to the public as a intern GM for one year while they do a extensive search high and low. If Keith wins some trades,dumps cap, drafts well and most importantly gets us in the playoffs next year he’s our man.

  113. YKOil says:

    PinkSocks: However Edmonton was where he key years of development took place.Eakins destroyed him and TMac put on the final touches.A player who scores 17 in his draft +1 in a lockout shortened season does not magically lose his touch without circumstances beyond his control.

    One dimensional, sure, but that dimension was scoring.Ovechkin isn’t on the ice in the defensive zone when the Caps are protecting a lead.If a player has one dimension to his game which is scoring, the HC is responsible for finding ways to use that dimension and making the player and team successful.By the time Yakupov stopped of in St Louis and Denver, he was not near the player he was in his draft +1.

    To be fair, four big things happened to Ovechkin’s and Washington’s benefit:

    1. Backstrom got drafted and that gave Ovie his on-ice soul-mate
    2. Trotz was coach
    3. Washington has always had a good puck-moving d-man available
    4. Ovie learned to better defensively

    Closest Yak came to that was 2012-13 with Krueger and being on a veteran team.

  114. godot10 says:

    smellyglove:
    TSN: “Hours after reporting teams have contacted Ken Holland, including the Edmonton Oilers and Seattle, TSN Hockey Insider Darren Dreger reported it’s believed Holland has withdrawn his name from consideration for the Oilers’ GM job.”

    Yeah, Holland says No to Draining the Swamp on Kingsway.

    I think most of the swamp has relocated to 104 Ave. The swamp has gone downtown. The team is still up the river.

  115. godot10 says:

    JimmyV1965: If you can trade the 8OV for Ehlers you run, don’t walk. You’re just hoping the pick will become Ehlers. Unfortunately, I don’t think that trade is happening. The Jets will figure out a way to keep him.

    i’d rather have Krebs and JT Miller (and an extra player to protect in the expansion draft) than Ehlers and Benning

  116. JimmyV1965 says:

    Oilman99: Ehlers for the #8pick is a big overpay, he is not a first liner, a second round pick at the most.

    A 23 year old who has played four full NHL seasons in his draft +5 and averaged 25 goals and 55 pts is a pretty high bar. It just might be slightly unrealistic to expect our 8OV to match that production.

  117. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Ehlers this playoffs is the 9th Jets forward in TOI and 10th in shifts per game. Not great if a player is supposed to be a top first liner. I wouldn’t overpay for him despite thinking he’s pretty good. His career offense is also under .75PPG which isn’t stellar. I think he’s like Eberle but faster.

  118. godot10 says:

    Fuge Udvar:

    It’s not like he is falling behind his draft class. Not in the slightest. I think we were all in agreement that this style of player (aka small) will need more development time. All these years of people complaining about rushing prospects and preaching patience. And yet here we are! How about we try not running prospects out of town for a change

    A small influential minority were not in agreement that he needed development time.

    I was opposed to giving him nine games. I wanted him sent back to junior out of camp, and to the AHL the following year (although I was less firm on the latter). I posted most of his comparables in stature needed at least two years in the AHL.

  119. Scungilli Slushy says:

    godot10: i’d rather have Krebs and JT Miller (and an extra player to protect in the expansion draft)than Ehlers and Benning

    Me too. The new GM can make a huge difference in simply dumping bad contracts (so they can move when solid opportunity arises), finding a good backup, a ‘competent’ 2 RD, and identifying which Condors are truly ready to help, and there are a couple that could do better than incumbents.

    It would make a tremendous difference. Enough of a difference for playoffs IMO and not rob the future. I hope Kretzky is smart enough to see it and has the ‘liquidation’ chops. I read somewhere that he views players as assets (instead of pals) which is a good start. It’s a cold blooded job really.

  120. GMB3 says:

    Oilman99: Ehlers for the #8pick is a big overpay, he is not a first liner, a second round pick at the most.

    This is the biggest “do you even watch the games” kind of comment I’ve ever seen.

  121. --hudson-- says:

    Lowetide: Lol. I’m trying a few new colors, not sure if I’ll settle on a main one or rotate.

    Hi LT, if you need help picking colors that work with each other, this link generates colors with the same saturation level (makes it easier on the eyes). Just spam the spacebar until you get a set of colors you like. https://coolors.co/app

  122. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Me too. The new GM can make a huge difference in simply dumping bad contracts (so they can move when solid opportunity arises), finding a good backup, a ‘competent’ 2 RD, and identifying which Condors are truly ready to help, and there are a couple that could do better than incumbents.

    It would make a tremendous difference. Enough of a difference for playoffs IMO and not rob the future. I hope Kretzky is smart enough to see it and has the ‘liquidation’ chops. I read somewhere that he views players as assets (instead of pals) which is a good start. It’s a cold blooded job really.

    And get a coach who’s less of an alligator.

  123. Bulging Twine says:

    I’m in the keep the #8 camp.

    Why?

    1) Upside. The upside of the #8 is an elite player. What you can acquire in a trade is probably not elite.
    2) $. The player you acquire is probably on his second contract therefore missing out on that nice entry level deal benefit.
    4) Expansion protection slot
    3) With the seeming variance in the top 10 this year a team may get their #3 at #8.

    I would be open to a trade down but only on the draft floor waiting to see what is available after #7.

    I will say this though. When discussing this we don’t have all the info. As in who are the players being discussed in a trade at #8? There may be a name where we hear and then people go…”oh well yeah, in that case, get him!” Maybe you could get a lot better than an Ehlers?? Who knows.

    I don’t see Drew Doughty wanting to stay in LA through a rebuild. And listening to MacLellan’s press conference, there is a rebuild plan in place there now. Maybe their #4 is there at #8.
    Yet, he’s 29.

  124. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    dustrock:
    Just want to remind that Blue Bullet Brad has his rankings out. The gap from 8 to 9 is basically the same as 4 to 8.Meaning you’re losing a ton of value out of the top 8.

    http://bluebulletreport.com/2019/04/11/2019-nhl-entry-draft-rankings-april/

    Hughes Score 110.00
    Kakko 84.42
    Byram 68.38
    Cozens 51.55
    Turcotte 50.17
    Zegras 46.86
    Podkolzin 44.94
    Dach 42.78

    Krebs 30.71

    That’s a pretty large drop.

    Gotta ask. What kind of scoring system is this?
    Cause if that’s NHLE, 110 points for Hughes is redonkculous!

  125. --hudson-- says:

    russ99:
    JimmyV1965,

    I’m not, I think it’s inevitable that RNH won’t be back once he hits FA, either he doesn’t want to resign here, which nobody would blame him for – or the team can’t meet what he wants under the cap.

    Would really prefer that not to happen until next season’s trade deadline at the soonest, we don’t have anyone that can replace him and that Connor-Leon pairing puts up way too many points to split them up.

    Also the new GM has to prove his trade mettle before trading away a quality player and a fan favorite.

    The replacement for RNH in 2 years should be who gets drafted at #8 this year. But if we can resign RNH while having #8 develop properly, that’s a chance to have a contender like the Jets or Tampa.

  126. godot10 says:

    YKOil: Complete disagreement.Ehlers is a complete player that gives us, at the least, one elite line and one high-end line, right now.At a decent salary/Cap charge that goes on and on.

    He and Huberdeau would be my targets were I to look at a straight up trade for a player NOW.Would also look at a re-signed Kreider (pending $) and at Nylander (Toronto version – and yes, I know, never happen).

    In three years, I would rather have JT Miller and Krebs rather than just Ehlers. JT Miller also cover the possible loss of Nugent-Hopkins, because he can be moved back to centre, and Benson will be ready to be a top six left wing.

  127. JimmyV1965 says:

    godot10: i’d rather have Krebs and JT Miller (and an extra player to protect in the expansion draft)than Ehlers and Benning

    I agree with this as well. I really like the trade options you listed in a previous post. I would be thrilled if the GM could bring in guys like Miller and Hoffman and I don’t think we need to trade the 8OV to get it done. What I’m saying is you can’t rule out the possibility of trading 8OV because these type of deals might not be possible, for whatever reasons.

  128. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    Also, the “remember me” function when logging in is not working. I have to log in every time I want to refresh the page right now. (Which is annoyingly retarded)

    This has never happened before now. I use an iPhone, so I have also never had any of the previous issues mentioned here before.

    Is Something wrong with the lowetide servers?

  129. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    Adding to my previous comment, It also kicks me out every time I post a comment. I can’t even edit comments anymore…

    🤬🤬🤬

  130. Fuge Udvar says:

    godot10,

    I hope we don’t see him next year. I would love to see Benson and Yamamoto lighting it up on the top line in Bakersfield. Hopefully Marody can make the jump next year. Go find them a solid AHL centre with experience and let them learn outside of the caustic Oiler media and fans.

  131. digger50 says:

    YKOil: JP was bypassed NOT because Columbus was soooo smart that they considered him a bust or lesser prospect, he was bypassed because Columbus desperately needed another centre and they considered Dubois as having better long-term upside than most other teams (they had him as a possible 1st line centre, if helped, while most had him as, at best, 2nd line).Would have picked JP without question.

    Yakupov is a different deal, at least for me.In a draft like that, shallow and with questions everywhere, I try to trade down (as far as #20 if need be) and try fix something in the process – goaltending prospect depth, defense – depth or roster, etc.I can’t say that I would be smart enough to pick Vasilevskiy – probably Subban – but the 1st always has outsized value of some kind and so I shop hard to maximize that return.

    I think Columbus was also in need of a player ASAP.

    It wasn’t just the center position

    I believe the GM passed on Jessie not due to hockey skills, but maturity, he knew Jessie was a few years out.

  132. digger50 says:

    The #8 pick has to be on the table

    But why does it have to be one option or another? The goal is to create a long term core group of players. The greater the number and talent of the core, the farther the team will go. So it’s not just about adding complementary players – not yet.

    How to get there? You have to fish in all the waters. Of course looking at cap teams. Of course move out cap space. Of course look at trading from positions of strength. And trade rounds 2 through 7 if it gets you something .

    Depending on opportunity, no 8 may be an option. If you can get a proven skilled top line player that will become part of the core, you build a deal.

    It seems too often we see Oilers either completely out on opportunities or late to the party. Either that or they make a one dimensional moveE and then get out the lawn chairs.

    If we can add two players to the core this summer, that would be a huge win. Then look at complementary additions.

  133. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bryan:
    The AHL has a decidedly unique playoff format where the first two games of the series are played in the lower ranking teams venue.I understand it is to keep travel costs down but strange nevertheless.The NHL had a 2-3-2 format for a while but that was scuttled, partially because of the Oilers success with that setup.

    Bryan:
    The AHL has a decidedly unique playoff format where the first two games of the series are played in the lower ranking teams venue.I understand it is to keep travel costs down but strange nevertheless.The NHL had a 2-3-2 format for a while but that was scuttled, partially because of the Oilers success with that setup.

    Bryan:
    The AHL has a decidedly unique playoff format where the first two games of the series are played in the lower ranking teams venue.I understand it is to keep travel costs down but strange nevertheless.The NHL had a 2-3-2 format for a while but that was scuttled, partially because of the Oilers success with that setup.

    Bryan:
    The AHL has a decidedly unique playoff format where the first two games of the series are played in the lower ranking teams venue.I understand it is to keep travel costs down but strange nevertheless.The NHL had a 2-3-2 format for a while but that was scuttled, partially because of the Oilers success with that setup.

    That’s not completely accurate as far as the AHL v

    If the teams are more than 300 miles apart, it’s a mandated 2 then 3 format and the higher seeded team gets to choose. Condors could have chosen to start at home for the first two games (and it’s not always. 2-3 format – depends on distance between the two cities).

  134. pts2pndr says:

    YKOil: This is, pretty much, my position on Yak as well.He did well under Krueger in 2012-13 on a team that was, mostly, veteran-ish and then after that was Eakins and then we seemed to enter line-blender land and he was never the same since (excepting flashes with McDavid and Roy).

    No different from JP to my mind.The team’s culture seems to lack to nurturing gene and so players that need consistency and structure get f*(ked.Great way to ruin a team.

    To build a ream you first build smaller units such as defensive pairings and consistent lines. This is followed by formulating a style that your players are best suited to. This helps build the team identity.not all styles fit all players and vice versa. Playing playground pick lineups to show how smart youare as a coach doesn’t work long term. We have watched various forms of this from our last two coaches. Yes some of this is the roster. Two coaches before our last two got much better or equal results with far worse rosters. Then there was Eakins who managed to devalue the entire roster during his tenure.

  135. Professor Q says:

    If I was the GM and more for a team for decades, including Cup Winning teams, and I was offered more money in a renewed deal to hold a higher spot and to mentor the former Captain of some of those Cups, a hero to the city, then I would take it and politely withdraw my name from other offers from other teams as well.

    I do not think that Ken Holland doing what he did is an indictment of Edmonton and the current process. He got a better offer to stay and he took it, despite also planning for the scenario of Detroit deciding to move on for him.

    We wait.

  136. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ethan Bear is healthy and will play tonight.

    More unlikely that Bouch will dress.

  137. Professor Q says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Ethan Bear is healthy and will play tonight.

    More unlikely that Bouch will dress.

    The team itself posted that he would be there. Why wouldn’t he be?

  138. Bryan says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    That’s not completely accurate as far as the AHL v

    If the teams are more than 300 miles apart, it’s a mandated 2 then 3 format and the higher seeded team gets to choose.Condors could have chosen to start at home for the first two games (and it’s not always. 2-3 format – depends on distance between the two cities).

    Ah I see. I think in a best of five I would be starting at home if I had the choice but it’s nice to know they had the option anyway.

  139. Nit64 says:

    Crazy Pedestrian:
    Also, the “remember me” function when logging in is not working. I have to log in every time I want to refresh the page right now. (Which is annoyingly retarded)

    This has never happened before now. I use an iPhone, so I have also never had any of the previous issues mentioned here before.

    Is Something wrong with the lowetide servers?

    All about WordPress cache. The Powers That Be are looking to port LT beyond WordPress this summer.

  140. gimme shelter says:

    Cole Caulfeld is 5 ft 6 in and weighs 147lbs. I had to go to Cap friendly for this info. In another draft list he was #8.That piece of info is huge because we have another shrimp in Yam. I would draft only players 5ft 11in or more as forwards. Yam is our token small skilled guy. He definetly is a skilled player but he needs some heft around him.Now whether we trade the pick or not depends on the calibre of the GM.
    As the new GM is KIF brother of gretz, no thanks. Brother of gretz learned his trading skills from Peter C. We all know how that worked out,

  141. ArmchairGM says:

    russ99:
    Lowetide,

    I think a full year at the AHL without too much time lost to injury will really help Yamamoto, especially if Marody and or Benson move up and he gets top line ice time.

    They don’t play the same positions, so he would actually be better off if they all stayed in Bakersfield.

  142. OriginalPouzar says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Ethan Bear is healthy and will play tonight.

    More unlikely that Bouch will dress.

    Haven’t heard anything on Yamamoto’s availability but, after listening to Woody on the Gregor show a few days ago, it didn’t sound promising – Woodcroft simply said he’s day-to-day and when on to talk about all the forwards the team has got back recently (3 from the NHL plus P. Russell who had been hurt).

    Woodcroft did confirm these top two lines the other day (with the bottom 6 being in flux):

    Benson/Marody/Currie
    Russell/Malone/Joe G.

    It will be nice to be back in the country later today (Saturday) to be able to watch the Condors (starting in Game 2) and focus better on the Saginaw/Guelph series.

    Travel is crazy – we leave Tokyo at 4:25 Saturday afternoon and arrive in Calgary at 11:05 Saturday morning – time travel baby!

  143. OriginalPouzar says:

    Professor Q: The team itself posted that he would be there. Why wouldn’t he be?

    Bouch is on the roster and will be in Colorado but that doesn’t mean that he’s going to play and its unlikely that he’ll play tonight – Woodcroft was very non-committal on Wed when asked by Gregor about him playing.

    I would absolutely love to see him play each and every game. Assuming a solid 3 plus round playoff run for the Condors – more information could be gained on Bouch’s NHL readiness than anything that happens in camp and exhibition (which is all but meaningless as far as NHL readiness).

    At the same time, the Condors have a healthy and strong and deep incumbent set of D than have battled all year and earned their playoff games. Lowe is the captain and will not come out. I would like to see Bouchard get some games over Stanton and Day even though those two have been big parts of the D depth all season.

    Bottom line, what we want isn’t necessarily what’s going to happen and it doesn’t sound like Evan will play tonight but that is far from confirmed – just going by what Woodcroft said (and interpreting between the lines).

  144. silasbengtsson says:

    It’s one thing to spend a 22nd overall pick (in the case of Yamamoto) or a 32nd pick (in the case of those who argued for Debrincat) on a sub-5’8 skill winger when no comparable offensive talents exists around those picks. It’s another to spend an 8th overall pick on such a player when there are comparable skilled players like Krebs, Zegras, Dach or Kaliyev almost certainly available.

    I don’t think I can get behind the use of the #8 pick on a risk like Caufield. Despite his immense talents and the evolution of the league (so long as that lasts), his size will continue to be a serious impediment to him.

  145. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bag of Pucks: Yakupov. Puljujarvi. Yamamoto.

    I don’t know why there’s so much verbal that the Oilers amateur drafting is acceptable.

    By my eye, there’s still lots of room for improvement. The examples above would be 3 contributing roster players by now on a solid drafting team. I don’t think we can hang it all on development.

    Yak and JP are development failures not drafting failures imo.

    I’d bet a fair sum JP will be a good NHLer, probably not with EDM.

    Book hasn’t been written on Yamamoto either.

  146. Lowetide says:

    gimme shelter:
    Cole Caulfeld is 5 ft 6 in and weighs 147lbs. I had to go to Cap friendly for this info. In another draft list he was #8.That piece of info is huge because we have another shrimp in Yam. I would draft only players 5ft 11in or more as forwards. Yam is our token small skilled guy. He definetly is a skilled player but he needs some heft around him.Now whether we trade the pick or not depends on the calibre of the GM.
    As the new GM is KIF brother of gretz, no thanks. Brother of gretz learned his trading skills from Peter C. We all know how that worked out,

    One of the reasons Edmonton passed on Zach Parise was Mike Comrie, another small center, was already on the team.

  147. Nix says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    So when all of the best GM options say no thanks, is there a LLoyd Christmas chance that Burgers says to Katz ‘we have to change things up, nobody wants the job’?

    Probably just means Kretzky gets it by default.

    So Burgers either awkwardly pantomimes this big show of a gm search only to have Kultureboy Kretz lined up as an obc friendly internal option all along (causing torches and pitchforks), OR, they’ve publically bungled everything so thoroughly for damned YEARS that no one suitable wants the taint of this stink, and Kretz gets the job by default (causing torches and pitchforks).

    Not sure which is worse but it is going to be hilarious in a laughing at a funeral kinda way.

  148. jtblack says:

    Lowetide: One of the reasons Edmonton passed on Zach Parise was Mike Comrie, another small center, was already on the team.

    Caufield has 62 Goals. Pure sniper.

    Lots of teams passed on debrincat.

    You never know if a player will make, whether they are 6’3″ or 5’6″. But Caufield clearly oozes SKILL and can finish.

  149. Ryan says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    So when all of the best GM options say no thanks, is there a LLoyd Christmas chance that Burgers says to Katz ‘we have to change things up, nobody wants the job’?

    Probably just means Kretzky gets it by default.

    Seems like a probable scenario to me.

    Even Burke promulgated that the call came from inside the house on the Reinhart trade which was likely Chiarelli’s largest trade blunder.

    For a long time now, the Oilers are where a lot of NHL players end their careers and in many cases not by their own volition.

    After the cautionary tale of Chiarelli combined with the ever-present, enduring and possibly expanding former GM club, I can appreciate the reluctance of potential GMs to join the team

  150. Bag of Pucks says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Yak and JP are development failures not drafting failures imo.

    I’d bet a fair sum JP will be a good NHLer, probably not with EDM.

    Book hasn’t been written on Yamamoto either.

    What did the Flames really do to ‘develop’ Tkachuk? They put him in the dance and played him with skill. And a player weaned in a North American pro ready environment took to the league like a duck to water.

    Yakupov and Puljujarvi are the same mistake twice imo. Freelancers who got by as amateurs on superior tools. Poor aptitude for NA system play and puck sense. Both weak defensively. Coaching/Communication issues and interfering agents. Not politically correct I know, but neither player strike me as quick studies.

    Yamamoto gets bullied in traffic and on the boards. Who could have seen that coming?

    Undoubtedly the Oil make mistakes in development. They seem to panic when these Top 5 picks don’t show well early. But the reason I struggle to lay it all on development is they do have development success stories with numerous players from Draisaitl to Nuge to Nurse to Klefbom etc. And neither Yakupov or Gagner got appreciably better under new regimes. Dubnyk, Cogliano, Schultz, Brossoit are examples of four players that thrived elsewhere but other than Schultz, I don’t know what the Oilers could’ve done differently development wise. Cogliano had to fail here to buy into a new role. Ditto for Schultz. Dubnyk was a head case until he found the right coach. Brossoit WAS absolutely bungled by MacLellan. I bet MacTavish sharpened his knife for Chiarelli then and there.

    The Islanders were the poster boys for bad development for years and it was obvious because their failed picks like Chara, Luongo, Bertuzzi, McCabe, Salo, Brewer, Torres, etc. consistently thrived after leaving. Ironically, it was the Oilers who rehabbed a fair few of those players. Possible bias that influenced the Reinhart trade? If the Oilers were consistently bad at development, I’d expect to see a similar pattern to the Isles. But what you see instead is some prospects that pass and some that fail. That tells me it’s the pupils moreso than the teachers. And the agents. They’re absolutely not helping in trying to help their young charges avoid the A.

  151. Bulging Twine says:

    Turcotte ahead of Cozens hey?

    I’m kinda wondering if that will happen. Some seem to really like him.

    Folks in Chicago are pimping him. He’s from Illinois. Could go 3.

  152. Fuge Udvar says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Yakupov played 2 full seasons in NA before being drafted. He looked like he was coming along nicely under Krueger. As for Cogliano I think we just didn’t wait long enough. He himself credits Horcoff for being the one to make him realize he needs to work on his defence to stick in the league. Some players’ game translate well to the NHL. Some players’ don’t. Some players’ game never does.

    St. Louis did all 4 years of college plus 2 more seasons in the minors. Gaudreau did 3 years of college after being drafted. Bure spent 2 years in Russia after being drafted. Theo Fleury made the NHL but still needed an extra year in junior. Small players need more to mature. I don’t expect Yamo to be as good as any of these players. I sure don’t expect him to develop faster than them. Let’s not starting throwing potential bust yet.

    I wouldn’t grade the scouting department on the top 15 picks. It’s what they do with rounds 2-5 that really show how strong it is.

  153. dustrock says:

    Crazy Pedestrian: Gotta ask. What kind of scoring system is this?Cause if that’s NHLE, 110 points for Hughes is redonkculous!

    He tracks production/scoring uses I think Vollman’s league scoring equivalents and gives each player a score.

    Check his blog for more details. I believe he tracks average draft position and plots it against the NHL production of similar players in terms of scoring.

    So it’s not a qualitative analysis of skating shooting etc, just estimating based off of draft ranking and scoring. Which is probably one reason why Krebs looks so poor here.

  154. Bling says:

    Holland withdrawing his name from consideration for the Edmonton job while not doing so for Seattle is the loud slap in the face in a crowded bar that this franchise deserves.

  155. Professor Q says:

    Bling:
    Holland withdrawing his name from consideration for the Edmonton job while not doing so for Seattle is the loud slap in the face in a crowded bar that this franchise deserves.

    He got the job in Detroit for 4 more years. They gave him a raise and a promotion, and let him stay on instead of moving on.

    He isn’t going to either Seattle or Edmonton. No slap in the face whatsoever.

  156. Lowetide says:

    Bulging Twine:
    Turcotte ahead of Cozens hey?

    I’m kinda wondering if that will happen.Some seem to really like him.

    Folks in Chicago are pimping him.He’s from Illinois.Could go 3.

    He’s been healthy, that’s a big positive.

  157. YKOil says:

    Fuge Udvar:
    Bag of Pucks,
    Yakupov played 2 full seasons in NA before being drafted. He looked like he was coming along nicely under Krueger. As for Cogliano I think we just didn’t wait long enough. He himself

    credits Horcoff for being the one to make him realize he needs to work on his defence to stick in the league.

    Bolding the part we miss. When was the last time we had a Horcoff to lead? A Krueger to teach?

    I think half the problem is the powers that be – inclusive of Katz, the OBC and Chiarell – is thinking that you can just add a player here and there and then flip a switch.

    So instead of McLellan being told that his job is to build the team he is asked – why aren’t we in the Cup final? And so he coaches accordingly. Who cares how stunted JP’s development is, move all the lines around always – GOTTA WIN!

    If this team loses RNH, well… cycles and all that I guess.

  158. Bag of Pucks says:

    Fuge Udvar:
    Bag of Pucks,

    Yakupov played 2 full seasons in NA before being drafted. He looked like he was coming along nicely under Krueger. As for Cogliano I think we just didn’t wait long enough. He himself credits Horcoff for being the one to make him realize he needs to work on his defence to stick in the league. Some players’ game translate well to the NHL. Some players’ don’t. Some players’ game never does.

    St. Louis did all 4 years of college plus 2 more seasons in the minors. Gaudreau did 3 years of college after being drafted. Bure spent 2 years in Russia after being drafted. Theo Fleury made the NHL but still needed an extra year in junior. Small players need more to mature. I don’t expect Yamo to be as good as any of these players. I sure don’t expect him to develop faster than them. Let’s not starting throwing potential bust yet.

    I wouldn’t grade the scouting department on the top 15 picks. It’s what they do with rounds 2-5 that really show how strong it is.

    Why should scouts get a pass on top picks that bust? They’re the most valuable picks and presumably the ones they’ve done the most due diligence on.

    When the Oilers draft Gagner 6th and the Sharks take Couture at 9th, that’s a clear tell who’s doing a better job scouting the top of the draft.

    There’s two recurring notions I find ridiculous.

    1) Your draft should always track very closely to the consensus picks. If they don’t, you’re the smartest man in the room going walkabout.

    2) Scouts should never be held to criticism post draft if their picks tracked to the consensus. They should only be criticized if they deviated from the herd.

    If orgs must always make the ‘safe pick’ that correlated with the groupthink, what’s the point of even having scouts? Why not just subscribe to a scouting service if any thought you have that deviates from the herd is sacrilege?

    The job is to get results. If you can do that by following the herd, great. If you have to deviate from the groupthink to identify the best players for your org, great. But get results. And if you don’t, you can’t be immune from critique because you made the so called safe pick at that time. All that mindset does is reward mediocrity,

    People still insist Yakupov was the right pick at 1OV! Just because a lot of people are in agreement about being wrong on something, that doesn’t make it right. What the Yakupov pick proves is the weaknesses inherent in crowd sourcing talent evaluation. The flaws are obvious. One or two high profile guys could’ve liked Nail wrongly and all the lemmings follow. Or maybe some orgs like to feed disinformation into the process so the dumber teams will fall for these flawed players because they’re the ‘consensus’ pick. Or maybe a model still dominated by eye test evaluation is failing to catch certain cultural or environmental factors that hamper players like Yak and JP.

    According to the pre draft consensus rankings, the Oil should’ve picked Bennett instead of Draisaitl. Funny how no one’s criticizing the Oil for their slight deviation from the herd on that one. BPA is not a binary measurement. So why do people act like it is?

  159. Lowetide says:

    There are several articles detailing Oilers scouts balking on the idea of Yakupov at No. 1 .

  160. Ryan says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    One team that supports your position is the Jets.

    Like the Oilers, the Jets have struggled to find value outside of the first round.

    Unlike the Oilers, they haven’t missed in the first round.

    They went walkabout with Scheifele and outdrafted the Oilers #1 ov in 2011.

    In 2012, they got Trouba vs Yakupov.

    In 2013, they got Morrissey at 13 who some like better than Nurse.

    2014, I don’t think Ehlers drops below #9 in a redraft.

    2015, they took Kyle Connor at 17. We were rumored to have Erickson Ek at 16 on our board.

    For 2017, they took Vesakainen at 24 vs Yamamoto at 22.

  161. Glovjuice says:

    Bag of Pucks: Yakupov. Puljujarvi. Yamamoto.

    I don’t know why there’s so much verbal that the Oilers amateur drafting is acceptable.

    By my eye, there’s still lots of room for improvement. The examples above would be 3 contributing roster players by now on a solid drafting team. I don’t think we can hang it all on development.

    Agreed. The drafting in the first round/ development has been flat out bad.

  162. Bag of Pucks says:

    Lowetide:
    There are several articles detailing Oilers scouts balking on the idea of Yakupov at No. 1 .

    Yes, but their boy Murray wasn’t appreciably better.

    And I’ve encountered numerous posters on this site that still defend the Yakupov pick as the right call because he was the consensus (ie safe) pick.

  163. Bag of Pucks says:

    Ryan:
    Bag of Pucks,

    One team that supports your position is the Jets.

    Like the Oilers, the Jets have struggled to find value outside of the first round.

    Unlike the Oilers, they haven’t missed in the first round.

    They went walkabout with Scheifele and outdrafted the Oilers #1 ov in 2011.

    In 2012, they got Trouba vs Yakupov.

    In 2013, they got Morrissey at 13 who some like better than Nurse.

    2014, I don’t think Ehlers drops below #9 in a redraft.

    2015, they took Kyle Connor at 17. We were rumored to have Erickson Ek at 16 on our board.

    For 2017, they took Vesakainen at 24 vs Yamamoto at 22.

    Excellent points.

    It was interesting to see Cheveldayoff’s name when I was pulling that list of disappointing Islander draft picks today. Forgot that.

  164. JimmyV1965 says:

    Bling:
    Holland withdrawing his name from consideration for the Edmonton job while not doing so for Seattle is the loud slap in the face in a crowded bar that this franchise deserves.

    Why would he announce that now? Has Seattle even started interviews?

  165. Jethro Tull says:

    JimmyV1965: Why would he announce that now? Has Seattle even started interviews?

    Has Edmonton?

  166. Bag of Pucks says:

    Smartest man in the room gets a bad rap imo because too many dumb people think they qualify.

    When you actually have a smart man like Sather or Pollock or Bellichick or Walsh, it can be a clear path to a dynasty.

  167. Jethro Tull says:

    Lowetide:
    There are several articles detailing Oilers scouts balking on the idea of Yakupov at No. 1 .

    Yak would still have been a 2ov had the oilers not picked him. Not chopped liver by any standard. Development, development, development. All parties need to be on board.

  168. Ryan says:

    Lowetide:
    There are several articles detailing Oilers scouts balking on the idea of Yakupov at No. 1 .

    2012 is a fascinating draft year in that the consensus rankings were terrible in hindsight yet some teams did very well.

    Washington got Forsberg and Wilson. Also had five players over 100 NHL games.

    The Jets got Trouba and Hellebuyck.

    Philly found the ghost bear in 3rd round.

    St Louis found Parayko in the third round in our backyard.

    The Sharks got Hertl and Tierney.

    We drafted and pissed away Gustafsson who had sixty points last season.

    The Canes found Slavin in the fourth.

    Crazy draft.

  169. Jethro Tull says:

    Ryan: 2012 is a fascinating draft year in that the consensus rankings were terrible in hindsight yet some teams did very well.

    Washington got Forsberg and Wilson. Also had five players over 100 NHL games.

    The Jets got Trouba and Hellebuyck.

    Philly found the ghost bear in 3rd round.

    St Louis found Parayko in the third round in our backyard.

    The Sharks got Hertl and Tierney.

    We drafted and pissed away Gustafsson who had sixty points last season.

    The Canes found Slavin in the fourth.

    Crazy draft.

    Crazier that WSH traded the skill, kept the coke machine and won a cup….

  170. Ryan says:

    This comment system / website is on life support, Lowetide.

    If there’s anything I can do to help, let me know.

    Is Danny migrating your hosting soon?

  171. godot10 says:

    Jethro Tull: Yak would still have been a 2ov had the oilers not picked him. Not chopped liver by any standard. Development, development, development. All parties need to be on board.

    Kekelainen wasn’t willing to trade up for Yakupov, so I doubt he would have taken him at two if the Oilers had taken Murray. Kekelainen knows forwards. Twenty year track record.

    Murray’s career has been impacted by injury.

  172. OriginalPouzar says:

    It is not reasonable to suggest that a standard 22nd overall pick should be in the NHL in his draft plus 2 year on a “good drafting team”. That would be the large exception and far from the norm and an example of unreasonable expectations that many have with respect to timing of development of prospects.

  173. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jethro Tull: Has Edmonton?

    Jethro Tull: Has Edmonton?

    Yes

  174. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ryan:
    This comment system / website is on life support, Lowetide.

    If there’s anything I can do to help, let me know.

    Is Danny migrating your hosting soon?

    Yes – he has been in touch with me and when I’m back in Canada (later today) will finalize payment and such for the migration.

  175. Jethro Tull says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Yes

    Who have they interviewed? Officially.

  176. Jethro Tull says:

    godot10: Kekelainen wasn’t willing to trade up for Yakupov, so I doubt he would have taken him at two if the Oilers had taken Murray.Kekelainen knows forwards.Twenty year track record.

    Murray’s career has been impacted by injury.

    Wasn’t willing? This presupposes that the Oilers offered. Lack of offer does not mean unwillingness to trade.

    The trouble with stats is that the more we use them, the more we ahbor anomalies. A lot of people had Yak at 1ov. He didn’t just not work out, but scrubbed out of the league. Sometimes you just have to accept that, at that time, Yak was the best player in the draft and then for “reasons” a year later, he wasn’t.

    We can’t say it doesn’t happen, because it did. Now the odds of it happening? That’s the rub.

  177. Lowetide says:

    godot10: Kekelainen wasn’t willing to trade up for Yakupov, so I doubt he would have taken him at two if the Oilers had taken Murray.Kekelainen knows forwards.Twenty year track record.

    Murray’s career has been impacted by injury.

    Kekalainen was in Finland managing Jokerit when the 2012 draft was taking place. I don’t think he would have been willing to trade up for Yakupov either, but Scott Howson was the man making the decision for CBJ.

  178. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jethro Tull: Who have they interviewed? Officially.

    There has been various reports from the more connected guys regarding meeting with Holland, setting up talks with Verbeek, etc.

    One may realize that many of the top candidates are still working.

    To think that a lot of time and resources have not been out in to the process is simply stretching to propagate a narrative.

  179. Jethro Tull says:

    OriginalPouzar: There has been various reports from the more connected guys regarding meeting with Holland, setting up talks with Verbeek, etc.

    One may realize that many of the top candidates are still working.

    To think that a lot of time and resources have not been out in to the process is simply stretching to propagate a narrative.

    So no official interviews then? OK.

    And you must think me obtuse to suggest I wouldn’t know some.of the candidates are still concentrating on playoffs with their respective teams.

    You seem to be suggesting that the Oilers are doing this without a due ethical process. Now that’s a narrative.

    I’m not sure which narrative you think I’m stretching.

  180. Jethro Tull says:

    godot10: Kekelainen wasn’t willing to trade up for Yakupov, so I doubt he would have taken him at two if the Oilers had taken Murray.Kekelainen knows forwards.Twenty year track record.

    Murray’s career has been impacted by injury.

    Lol, he wasn’t even GM. Surprised you didn’t blame Todd McLellan.

  181. who says:

    godot10:
    Tentatively my plan is something like this.

    Keep the pics.Draft Byram, Cozens, or Krebs.

    Trade Benning (Tampa has a done of expiring contracts of old D…they will have need for a cheap 3rd pairing RD) for JT Miller or Yanni Gourde.

    Trade Kassian for Mike Hoffman.

    Out Benning and Kassian and maybe a couple of mid round draft picks.In Hoffman, JT Miller, and Krebs/Cozens.

    Roughly…
    JT Miller, McDavid, Draisaitl
    Hoffman, Nugent-Hopkins,Chiasson
    Khaira, Marody, Puljujarvi
    Gamberdella, Cave, Gagner
    Lucic, Brodziak

    Well that’s a great plan.
    Except Benning doesn’t get you Miller. And Kassian doesn’t get you Hoffman.

  182. OriginalPouzar says:

    Interesting to find out what makes an interview “official”.

  183. Bulging Twine says:

    Flames have the stationary places D in their own zone which doesn’t match well with the Avs constant motion.
    It’s like they’re mesmorized

  184. Reja says:

    who: Well that’s a great plan.
    Except Benning doesn’t get you Miller. And Kassian doesn’t get you Hoffman.

    Hoffman’s wife will decide where he plays and Edmonton isn’t on the list.

  185. JOFA says:

    LT,

    I’m a traditionalist. Black and white😊

  186. Bulging Twine says:

    Vegas – Colorado would be a high tempo series

  187. Ryan says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yes – he has been in touch with me and when I’m back in Canada (later today) will finalize payment and such for the migration.

    If that doesn’t work out, I’ll pay for some trivial advertising so that I can expense this to my prof Corp. I’ve been offering for years to pay for Lowetide’s hosting.

  188. Reja says:

    Come on AVS poor it on sure glad our Captain isn’t a constant whining baby after someone touches him

  189. Fiveinatrailer says:

    Anybody else have a weird feeling that the NHL is changing before our eyes?
    With so many top seeds getting knocked out, something is definitely changing but I don’t know what it is. It would be easy to say “league parity” but I get the feeling it’s something else. The days of first round “byes” are over that’s for sure.

    I wish I was smart enough to analyze what we’re seeing. I know it’s there, but can’t figure it out.
    Anybody here got any ideas?

  190. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ryan: If that doesn’t work out, I’ll pay for some trivial advertising so that I can expense this to my prof Corp. I’ve been offering for years to pay for Lowetide’s hosting.

    I think its all under control but will let you know.

  191. YKOil says:

    Fiveinatrailer:
    Anybody else have a weird feeling that the NHL is changing before our eyes?
    With so many top seeds getting knocked out, something is definitely changing but I don’t know what it is. It would be easy to say “league parity” but I get the feeling it’s something else.The days of first round “byes” are over that’s for sure.

    I wish I was smart enough to analyze what we’re seeing. I know it’s there, but can’t figure it out.
    Anybody here got any ideas?

    Not sure I agree.

    Calgary is out because they couldn’t handle one line
    San Jose may lose because their goaltending has imploded and they have no defence playing defence
    Tampa is out because they went cold as ice all at the same time
    Pittsburgh is out because of goaltending and, as much as anything imo, because Crosby, Malkin, Kessel can’t paper over roster cracks anymore

    etc.

    All different reasons imo.

  192. Ryan says:

    From Matheson:

    There’s a GM job open in Edmonton and in Seattle. Darren Dreger of TSN says Holland has taken himself out of contention but other sources say he’s still in the picture.

    https://edmontonsun.com/sports/hockey/nhl/edmonton-oilers/a-gm-at-heart-could-ken-holland-be-the-one-the-edmonton-oilers-are-looking-for

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca