Too Much By Plenty

Last summer, after winning Stanley, the Washington Capitals were faced with some tough decisions. Badly in need of cap room, and with substantial free agents to sign, the potential for madness existed.

Washington solved the cap issue by trading Brooks Orpik and his $5.5-million cap to Colorado, with goalie Philipp Grubauer as the sweetener. It allowed the team to sign John Carlson (the big piece) long term, and make smaller (but important) moves like adding Nic Dowd to replace Jay Beagle. Caps even got Orpik back at a lower price in free agency.

Turnover is necessary in the NHL. Massive turnover is madness. How much have the Oilers done in recent summers? Too much by plenty.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group.INSANE NEW OFFER IS HERE!

  • New Lowetide: Tyler Benson’s comparables offer Oilers fans plenty of hope for the future.
  • New Lowetide: Making the call on the Oilers’ RFAs with a new general manager on the way.
  • Lowetide: Red Wings front office shuffle could impact Oilers’ future.
  • Jonathan Willis: Potential coaching candidates and why the Oilers don’t need to rush the GM search to get one
  • Lowetide: What would Glen Sather do with these Oilers?
  • Jonathan Willis: Some creative solutions to address the Oilers’ goalie problem
  • Lowetide: The Milan Lucic saga rolls into Year 4 for Oilers with no easy answers
  • Jonathan Willis: Who stays and who goes? An early projection of which players will remain on the Oilers’ roster in 2019-20
  • LowetideHow high can these Condors fly?
  • Lowetide: Ron Hextall’s patient approach as GM would be shock to Oilers’ system
  • Jonathan Willis: Michael Futa’s success at the NHL Draft makes him a credible GM candidate for the Oilers
  • Lowetide: The Oilers possible summer trade pieces, and which longtime players might be saying goodbye.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ten prospects likely to be available when the Oilers make their first-round pick.
  • Jonathan Willis: Bob Nicholson mostly says the right things, but stalls on making changes to the Oilers.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The pressure’s squarely on Bob Nicholson to make right GM hire for Oilers.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers Report Cards: Few passing grades remain in season full of failure.
  • Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers, the republic of Finland and the 2019 draft.
  • Lowetide: The Oilers made a rare move and shopped the QMJHL at the 2018 draft. It could happen again.
  • Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers draft early, the WHL is loaded and there’s a lot of history.
  • Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers and the OHL.

CHIARELLI TO DO, 2015

  1. Draft McDavid (check)
  2. Find a quality goalie option (his answer was Cam Talbot)
  3. Acquire a legit top pairing blue (Andrej Sekera)
  4. Acquire a more offensive two-way F (Lauri Korpikoski)
  5. Ignore MacT re: Marincin (dealt for No. 107 overall)

I keep track of the ‘needs list’ each summer, Chiarelli had five things he needed to accomplish in his first summer. He checked off three of the five, made a poor decision on Korpikoski and dealt Marincin.

That’s not all he did. He made seven trades over the summer, acquiring Griffin Reinhart, Cam Talbot, Eric Gryba, Lauri Korpikoski and Anders Nilsson. Added to the free agents (Sekera, Mark Letesu), it made eight additions, including McDavid. Basically half the roster. Roster change by sledgehammer.

CHIARELLI TO DO, 2016

  1. Top-pairing D to partner with Klefbom (his answer was Larsson)
  2. Second-pairing RHD to partner with Sekera (Kris Russell)
  3. Acquire RHC with some skill (Jesse Puljujarvi)
  4. Backup goalie (Jonas Gustavsson)
  5. Rob the Bruins of something (Matt Benning)

If you bring in nine players in one summer, one assumes it’s a quiet time the next year. There was a lot of change, including Taylor Hall being dealt to New Jersey. Chiarelli traded for Adam Larsson (the only major deal summer 2016) and signed Milan Lucic, Jonas Gustavsson, Mark Fraser, Kris Russell, Drake Caggiula and Matt Benning. Draft pick Jesse Puljujarvi brought the new hires summer 2016 to eight. That mean 16 (70 percent) turnover.

CHIARELLI TO DO, 2017

  1. Sign McDavid and Draisaitl. (Done)
  2. Survive the expansion draft.  (Reinhart was lost)
  3. Make sure there’s enough cap room. (Eberle out, Strome in)
  4. Find a second pairing D with two-way acumen (Kris Russell)
  5. Find a forward who can help the offense. (No answer)
  6. Offload Benoit Pouliot. (they bought him out)

As was the case in 2016, just one trade but it had an enormous impact. I didn’t think it was fatal, more of a ‘Bill Guerin for Anson Carter’ deal. Eberle had two years left on his deal and Ryan Strome is a RHC. You can see the thought process. Not so on the next Strome deal.

Aside from acquiring Strome, PC added Ty Rattie, Jussi Jokinen and Yohann Auvitu. Do you remember the free agents he allowed to walk? Tyler Pitlick, Jordan Oesterle. Both are productive NHL players with many years ahead of them. Oilers talent evaluation remained poor.

CHIARELLI TO DO, 2018

  1. Veteran scoring right winger. Alex Chiasson was the answer, with Zack Kassian also having an impact.
  2. Two-way left winger. Tobias Rieder was an astute addition, in my opinion. It didn’t work out, but it was a good bet.
  3. Puck mover. PC looked, settled on Evan Bouchard.
  4. No. 7 defender. Kevin Gravel was excellent until they stopped playing him.
  5. Backup goalie. Mikko Koskinen was a solid move.

No major deals, but some free agent signings. Rieder, Koskinen, Gravel, Kyle Brodziak, Jakub Jerabek and then (late) Alex Chiasson and Jason Garrison. I think this would have been a wise path in 2015, keeping all of the picks and spending McDavid’s rookie season auditioning July 15 free agents in prominent roles (Chiasson, Gravel, Rieder types).

Another free agent out: Laurent Brossoit. He’d be a useful piece about now.

MARK HUNTER TO DO, 2019

  • Two scoring wingers (Brett Connolly, Tyler Johnson)
  • Cap room (buyout or offload with retain)
  • No. 3 RH center (Riley Nash or internal solution Marody)
  • Top 4 RHD who can move the puck (Colin Miller)
  • Backup goalie (Thomas Greiss)

Peter Chiarelli didn’t get the job done but there are some things coming from the farm and that will help. Mark Hunter will arrive with very little knowledge of the difference between Caleb Jones, Ethan Bear and William Lagesson. I know many are angry at Craig MacTavish, Scott Howson and others, but these men could be key in how Hunter proceeds in the trade market.

I think Hunter will try to trade Puljujarvi, Benning, Khaira and buyout a contract in an effort to address needs and free up money for Connolly, et cetera.

I think he may decide to trade Larsson, the No. 8 overall pick and various picks ala Chiarelli in 2015 to get it done. No. 8 and No. 38 for Olli Juolevi? I kid.

TAKING STOCK

If I’m Hunter, I’m calling in Keith Gretzky, Craig MacTavish, Scott Howson and whomever else is left, and asking the following:

  1. If I have to trade Adam Larsson for a scoring winger, what is my best option for No. 1 RHD and don’t say ‘there isn’t one’.
  2. If I trade Dmitri Samorukov are people going to hate me in 2022?
  3. What is a Lagesson?
  4. If you believe Evan Bouchard is going to be a productive player, and that Joel Persson is ready, then trading Ethan Bear is a reasonable option, right?
  5. Who signed Mikko Koskinen for three years?
  6. How do you evaluate goalies?
  7. Name three left wingers on the 50-man roster who are capable of scoring 15+ goals next season, and you can’t count 97, 29 and 93.
  8. Name three left wingers on the roster better than Tyler Benson.
  9. Jesse Puljujarvi doesn’t have a lot of trade value. Is there a role the new coach can use him in that will benefit player and team? Is a season in Finland a preferable option to trading him now or losing him on waivers?
  10. Why did a building team trade so many picks in 2014 and 2015? Craig?
  11. How did the Oilers give up 62 goals while shorthanded?
  12. If Leon Draisaitl is the only main center over 50 percent (50.5), and Connor McDavid (46.6) and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (45.1), maybe we’re looking for centers instead of wingers? Righty centers who can play both?

I’ll tell you this Russian winger Podkolzin has me concerned. Most of the attention is on the Americans at the U18’s (Cole Caufield, Matt Boldy) but Podkolzin might be the biggest mover (down) after the U18’s.

I’m content with the NA rankings on the list, but Euros always have late fluctuation partly because it’s a scouting year with major tournaments as the guide. Here is my current top 12 and what I’m thinking about for my final list:

1 C Jack Hughes, U.S. National Development Team (USHL). I have him at the top and that won’t change on my final list. He’s the real thing.

2 R Kaapo Kakko, Turkku (Sm-Liiga). More than just a consolation prize, he’s a quality prospect who might be a plug and play for the right team. Flourished in the Sm-Liiga.

3 L Arthur Kaliyev, Hamilton (OHL). I’m comfortable with him here, but don’t want to be stubborn on it. His NHLE (40) includes 20 goals and that’s an exceptional number for a prospect his age in such a great league.

4 LD Bowen Byram, Vancouver (WHL). He’s easily the best defenseman in the draft, the question for me surrounds his impact. He isn’t Denis Potvin and he isn’t Scott Niedermeyer, but he has the entire package. I suspect I’ll rank him No. 3 on my final list.

5 RC Kirby Dach, Saskatoon (WHL). The rest of my top 10 is like spending a day shopping for stereo speakers (one day I’ll tell you about the Saturday I spent trying to decide between Bose and Altec Lansing): It’s shades of grey. I like Dach for his size, speed, skill and handedness. He’s a dynamic player.

6 LC Alex Turcotte, U.S. National Development Team (USHL). The worry for him was injury but he’s closed well and is clearly quality. If you read his scouting report, it’ll remind you of the Nuge. I might put him at No. 5 on the final list.

7 R Dylan Cozens, Lethbridge (WHL). I have him below Dach because he’s not quite a finished product. That can go either way, as there might be another gear, but Dach with the puck on his stick has more ways to hurt you in my opinion.

8 LC Peyton Krebs, Kootenay (WHL). I’ve moved him up recently, mostly because others have fallen. This is a quality talent, who could emerge as an outstanding complementary player on a line with 97 or 29. A little like Kaliyev in that his work seems to be discounted by some.

9 R Vasili Podkolzin, St. Petersburg (MHL). He’s the guy I worry about the most, there’s a disconnect between verbal and production. I think he must be very impressive on tape because the numbers aren’t there. If numbers is the third base coach, math isn’t waving him home inside my top 10.

10 LC Trevor Zegras, U.S. National Development Team (USHL). I have moved him down recently, mostly for fear about who is zooming who on that incredible US National Team. Absolutely worth a top-10 pick, not sure he should be the second USHL player on my list.

11 R Cole Caufield, U.S. National Development Team (USHL). He is scoring at will at the U18’s, and I expect he’ll land much higher than I have him. Small but with speed and smarts, his shot is money. He could land around No. 8 on my final list but NA’s rarely move up or down that much for me so we’ll see.

12 L Matthew Boldy, U.S. National Development Team (USHL). I actually have him at No. 13 but Mitch Brown has me re-thinking Phillip Broberg. Along with Hughes, Caufield and Turcotte, Boldy is rocking the U18’s with nine points in three games. Likely getting zoomed a little but very talented. Power forward skills, very good passer.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260. We have a mountain of things to cover, beginning with Murat Ates of The Athletic Winnipeg. Jets fell to the Blues, not sure there was a damned thing they could do about the result.

I’ll have J.D. Burke from TSN1040 Vancouver and The Athletic Vancouver on to talk about an exciting new project with Elite Prospects. His Top 93 for 2019 is original, brilliant and a must read.

Jason Gregor will join me at 11:05 to talk Mark Hunter and other possible GM candidates, plus Oil Kings. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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182 Responses to "Too Much By Plenty"

  1. razor says:

    Is it me or does LT’s to-do list grow every year? Major fail of the organization. All of a sudden top wingers pops in there. And man, a second pairing RHD has been a need for a loooonnnngggg time.

  2. Jethro Tull says:

    Hunter got the job? I missed that!

    I’d rather Hunter fly solo than take advice from the OBC. They will have implicit bias as to the players and deals that gone before, whether they agreed with them or not. It’s another reason you don’t let ex-GM’s hang around.

  3. JustWatt says:

    1. Um….
    2. This is Edmonton. Yes.
    3. Free money, don’t touch it.
    4. Yes, absolutely.
    5. Chiarelli, but Nicholson had to own it afterward to save face for letting him sign the player 3 days before he was fired.
    6. Magic 8 Ball.
    7. Um….
    8. Look, if I’m not allowed to say “no one” this conversation is going to continue to have a lot of dead air.
    9. This is a salvageable player. Hire a coach who will play him in in the top 6 and on the PP as the shooter until he gets it. I’d rather see a season in Finland and a return to the Oilers than lose him for pennies on the dollar. Have some damn patience.
    10. *sighs*
    11. The team employed 8 wingers who could neither score under any circumstance or penalty kill properly.
    12. Ooooooooooohhh, nice curveball. Aren’t wingers supposed to cheaper and easier to find? Also, could the numbers for McDavid and Nuge improve if they had some real help on the wings instead of millstones? I think the answer is: probably.

  4. JustWatt says:

    Jethro Tull:
    It’s another reason you don’t let ex-GM’s hang around.

    What about ex-coaches? Doesn’t Hitchcock looking like he’ll be offered a managerial role with the team portend that the OBC/Hockey Canada managerial group will continue to grow unchecked? It’s basically nepotism at this point.

  5. OriginalPouzar says:

    I cannot get on board with the “buyout or retain” for cap space – to me the only player to retain on is Lucic and there should simply be no buyouts.

    The cap space should come from things such as:

    – clean Russell disposition

    – bury Manning for a $1,075,000 cap savings

    – bury Brodz and replace with a cheaper 4C (Cave potentially)

    – get creative – trade Gagner with a very minor sweetner to a team like Ottawa, get them to buy him out and then sign him for cheap.

  6. JustWatt says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    This. 100%. No buyouts. No more short term gain for long term pain. Build the team properly so that it is a contender in McDavid’s and Draisaitl’s primes. Handcuffing your future cap space to try and limp into the playoffs next year should be a firing offense.

  7. OriginalPouzar says:

    I do agree with a couple on the to do list:

    – acquisition of Colin Miller as the 2RD stop gap – predicated on a disposition of Kris Russell

    – acquisition of Griess as the 1B.

  8. OriginalPouzar says:

    LT, I see you often suggesting the new GM will look to trade Khaira – I know this is predicated on the rational that he has a bit of value but I still don’t get it. I agree he’s got some value but not a ton and the piece coming back would not be material. At the same time, this org is in need of value contract and, given Khaira will likely re-sign for around $1M, $1.5M max, he is likely to be a value contract for this team. Why trade that away for a middling return?

  9. leadfarmer says:

    I could see them after a Ristolainen whale hunt
    Note do not go after a Ristolainen

  10. OriginalPouzar says:

    JustWatt:
    OriginalPouzar,

    This. 100%. No buyouts. No more short term gain for long term pain. Build the team properly so that it is a contender in McDavid’s and Draisaitl’s primes. Handcuffing your future cap space to try and limp into the playoffs next year should be a firing offense.

    I agree, 100% – unfortunately, the new GM may have a mandate re: immediate substantial improvement and I fear that was LT predicts is what we’ll see and it will simply lead to more pain in the medium term.

  11. Jethro Tull says:

    leadfarmer:
    I could see them after a Ristolainen whale hunt
    Note do not go after a Ristolainen

    I’m gonna say Operation Nylander, phase 2.

  12. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I do agree with a couple on the to do list:

    – acquisition of Colin Miller as the 2RD stop gap – predicated on a disposition of Kris Russell

    – acquisition of Griess as the 1B.

    I was a big fan of acquiring Miller after expansion draft
    Don’t see him being available
    Vegas knows what they have now

  13. frjohnk says:

    LT, with all due respect, you are crazy. You cant trade Larsson this summer. I’ll admit that he is probably more suited for 2RD than 1RD, but he is a top 4 Dman on a good contract.

    Trade Larsson and how long until Bouchard is playing but sinking on the top pair?

    Keep Larsson,
    keep Klefbom
    keep Nurse

    add to these guys while providing a stop gap for Bouchard so he can be developed properly.

    If in a year, we have a bunch of the young D pushing for spots in the top 4, then I can get behind the trading of one our Dmen but until then I am putting a bunch of water into the powder

  14. dustrock says:

    Other than Kaliyev which the math really does support, I agree with your top 10 LT.

    I think Turcotte might be more Toews than RNH.

  15. leadfarmer says:

    frjohnk,

    I don’t think it’s LTs or mine suggestion to trade Larsson
    It’s that these guys telegraph these decisions from far away and trade players that didn’t meet their expectations whether they had adequate replacements available

  16. godot10 says:

    Matt Benning provides Tampa coverage for Cal Foote. They have need for a cheap right shot D.

    Benning for JT Miller, modulo stuff. I don’t see how one gets Johnson when he has a NTC. Miller can play all three forward spots and PK. Provides cover for Nugent-Hopkins leaving in two years. Miller is also two years younger. His is entering his prime years, while Johnson is leaving his, and his contract extends one year longer than MIller, and well past 30 for Johnson.

  17. barry.moore23 says:

    Ziggy – 14/10 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    The Griffin Reinhart trade – bleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeehhhhh

  18. leadfarmer says:

    The proper move should be keep building through the draft
    I predicted last offseason that we are 3 years (2 now) away from being competitive
    I don’t know if Mcdavid has 2 years
    The new GM will have to sell Mcdavid on his vision
    But I’m guessing he won’t be patient and won’t risk being the guy that has to trade Mcdavid

  19. Ben says:

    leadfarmer: The new GM will have to sell Mcdavid on his vision

    I’d be pretty surprised if McDavid/Orr weren’t, at some level, involved in the hiring.

  20. Jethro Tull says:

    Ben: I’d be pretty surprised if McDavid/Orr weren’t, at some level, involved in the hiring.

    I think the involvement is “you guys better hope you get it right.”

  21. Alpine says:

    leadfarmer: I was a big fan of acquiring Miller after expansion draft
    Don’t see him being available
    Vegas knows what they have now

    Vegas has 82.4 Mil committed next season. They have to sign Karlsson who’s an RFA. They will have to dump some players for cap space. Miller and Eakin are probably the most likely casualties.

  22. OriginalPouzar says:

    The question re: Samorukov is valid because we know managers have been asking.

    That’s what a plus World Juniors followed by a plus, plus, plus World Juniors followed by a plus X 5 second half of the CHL season will do – he is a real real prospect.

    To me, Samorukov has the highest potential ceiling of all our prospect d-men – even higher than Bouchard. Of course, Bouchard is almost assured a solid NHL career while Samorukov may never make it (Bouchard more of a sure thing) but Samorukov is the one player that has the full skill-set to potentially be a true #1 guy. The likelihood that he reaches that lofty goal isn’t great but he’s got a wider range of skills than Bouchard does.

  23. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Murat Ates listing WPG ailments during the playoffs:

    Brandon Tanev had a broken finger – had surgery before the series started.

    Nik Ehlers. Fracture in right leg.

    Patrik Laine back issue during the year, “small” groin injury during the playoffs – “nothing I couldn’t handle.”

    Ehlers played on a fracture.

    Whoa.

  24. jtblack says:

    Ok, Great Post. Hoppy Easter Monday!

    “Why did a building team trade so many picks in 2014 and 2015? Craig?”

    Edmonton has limited depth right now because off this. Thankfully all 2016 /:2017 / 2018 picks were made amd the depth will start arrving this fall.

    LT : BYRAM comparable : Morgan Reilly. I think his game is similiar at both ends of the ice and overall (skating, size, O , D)

    Apparently Peyton Krebs is highly dedicated to fitness and off ice training. (source is ex teammate / leaguemate)

    I think he would be a Great Add.

  25. russ99 says:

    Keep Larsson, Klefbom, Nurse.

    Move Benning for a forward, Persson or Bouchard will replace him soon.

    Move one of Sekera or Russell.

    I say Sekera due to his cap hit, the 5 more teams he can be traded to, and risk of re-injury or loss of skating skill.

    Corsis hate him, but Russell can skate, is better in all offensive metrics on his natural left side, and his low last year’s salary can be moved at the deadline to a cap rich, cash poor team. He’d be a better mentor to the kids if he wouldn’t flop to the ice so much.

    Add two more NHL forwards and we can compete better and build through the system. We can’t punt 2-3 more years to rebuild.

  26. JustWatt says:

    Jethro Tull: I’m gonna say Operation Nylander, phase 2.

    Man, if the price was right… Leafs need some D, pretty sure Russel/Sekera not going to move the needle. Maybe Samorukov?

  27. JustWatt says:

    russ99,

    Agree on all fronts but one: not sure if Russell would be a better mentor. Otherwise it makes sense to move Sekera first to me too. Then dump Russell at the deadline if you can and the team is borderline to make the playoffs or worse.

  28. jtblack says:

    C Miller is under contract for 3 more years at $3.8 / per.

    Are we sure he is even avail?

    Prob would be perfect fit as 2 RHD. not sure QofC in Vegas. Avg boots worry me but seems to make a good 1st pass and can play PP.

  29. Jethro Tull says:

    JustWatt: Man, if the price was right…Leafs need some D, pretty sure Russel/Sekera not going to move the needle. Maybe Samorukov?

    We’d have to ask his mum. Can’t see her coming to Edmonton for Thanksgiving.

  30. Ben says:

    Agree with OP. I value our high-end D prospects in this order, and would be extremely wary about moving the top-3.

    Bouchard
    Sam
    Jones
    Bear
    Lagesson

    But hey, chances are they won’t all play, and it’s the only area of notable depth in the entire org, so a good chance one or two of them move out along with a pick or a bigger contract.

  31. godot10 says:

    If Calgary would retain $1.75 million on Neal, would Russell for Neal make sense. It would be cap neutral for two years. Neal has no signing bonuses.

    I am always in favour of Russell for Frolik.

    Just brainstorming. Throwing stuff up against the wall.

  32. Ben says:

    godot10,

    Definitely prefer the Frolik idea.

    And good thinking that a Russell move doesn’t have to be a pure cap play. If he can bring back a decent middle-six winger at a similar or slightly lower number, you do that.

    Neal seems completely over the cliff. If it weren’t for the preferable buyout structure, that would be a good Lucic comp.

  33. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    One thing that I know about all the GM candidates is that we really don’t know how they would do as GMs.

    Everybody thought Fenton would be great and his first few moves ranges from meh to poor to what the actual fuck are you doing in that CAR trade?

    I know the largest weakness in EDM is the ability to correctly evaluate professional NHL players and slot them properly on a NHL roster.

    I have no idea if Hunter can do that.

    I have no idea if McCrimmon can do that.

    I do know that McCrimmon probably has more experience in the related disciplines when he helped build VGK.

    I also know that VGK GMGM is on record saying a key to the success of their team is having good players in the bottom 6 and I would love a GM here who knows that intrinsically. I don’t know if Hunter shares that philosophy.

    I am also told that VGK uses player data in their evaluations as a matter of course and I would prefer that too. I don’t know if Hunter shares that philosophy.

    I fear Hunter due to all the unknowns over McCrimmon but as we saw with Fenton, good GMs do not always produce good AGMs ready for the chair.

  34. Alpine says:

    How about Manning to DET for Bernier? Gives us a 1B goalie for two years at 3 mil, we dump a player we don’t need, and Detroit gets some needed cap relief. They’re bringing back Howard for another year, and Bernier is coming off a down year, so I can’t imagine he wouldn’t be available.

  35. leadfarmer says:

    godot10:
    If Calgary would retain $1.75 million on Neal, would Russell for Neal make sense. It would be cap neutral for two years. Neal has no signing bonuses.

    I am always in favour of Russell for Frolik.

    Just brainstorming.Throwing stuff up against the wall.

    If you find yourself stuck in a hole the most important thing is stop digging. Only way I trade for Neal is if Lucic goes the other way

  36. ArmchairGM says:

    From the last thread:

    ArmchairGM: Larsson will be a UFA, no need to protect him.

    ORIGINALPOUZAR says:To the extent they want him back and the plan is to re-sign him then, yes there is (as I pointed out in my post).

    ****************************************************************************************
    Of the top 20 free agents available in the Vegas expansion draft, NONE of them made their team’s protected list. Vegas had a special negotiating window with players such as Thornton, Marleau, Shattenkirk, Radulov, Alzner, Hanzal, Williams, Jagr, etc – and signed none of them. A smart GM waits until after that window and then re-signs his UFA’s before July 1st. Protecting a UFA is very, very poor asset management.

    If Larsson won’t re-sign then he should be gone at the trade deadline anyhow.

  37. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    godot10:
    If Calgary would retain $1.75 million on Neal, would Russell for Neal make sense. It would be cap neutral for two years. Neal has no signing bonuses.

    I am always in favour of Russell for Frolik.

    Just brainstorming.Throwing stuff up against the wall.

    The Russell for Neal idea bounced off and hit you in the junk

  38. Lowetide says:

    frjohnk:
    LT, with all due respect, you are crazy.You cant trade Larsson this summer.I’ll admit that he is probably more suited for 2RD than 1RD, but he is a top 4 Dman on a good contract.

    Trade Larsson and how long until Bouchard is playing but sinking on the top pair?

    Keep Larsson,
    keep Klefbom
    keep Nurse

    add to these guys while providing a stop gap for Bouchard so he can be developed properly.

    If in a year, we have a bunch of the young D pushing for spots in the top 4, then I can get behind the trading of one our Dmen but until then I am putting a bunch of water into the powder

    I am absolutely against trading Larsson. Sincerely. Nuge too.

  39. Woogie63 says:

    55 year old men, who played pro hockey, with a high school education are not inspiring anyone as the Oilers search for a new manager.

    Look to the NFL and the corporate world, a completely different skill set is emerging as the great thinkers.

    The normal day of a pro athlete, highlights working out, skills training, video, public relations work, a nap before the game, good nutrition. For most of us, we would call this part-time hours and a pampered job.

    The normal day for a top flight business executive is much, much different, increasingly I think we are all seeing their are track suits and blue suits and the skills to be successful are very different.

  40. Reja says:

    JustWatt:
    russ99,

    Agree on all fronts but one: not sure if Russell would be a better mentor. Otherwise it makes sense to move Sekera first to me too. Then dump Russell at the deadline if you can and the team is borderline to make the playoffs or worse.

    Only way you move Russell Sekera Manning Gagne or Lucic is with assets are retention that’s the reality hopefully Keith or the new GM is creative and on the ball.

  41. Psyche says:

    Woodguy: Was Neal a poor bet from a data analysis perspective? His age would have sacred me off.

    Lowetide and Gregor with some good conversation on TSN 1260. According to Gregor, if Oilers hire “an average GM” they will have more success. I tend to agree, although I’d like to see them hit a home run with this acquisition. I’m in the same boat as Woodguy re: Hunter, there are a lot of unknown’s. That’s worrisome. I’ll be cheering for the Sharks tonight so that the Oilers can scratch the McCrimmon itch.

  42. LadiesloveSmid says:

    godot10:
    If Calgary would retain $1.75 million on Neal, would Russell for Neal make sense. It would be cap neutral for two years. Neal has no signing bonuses.

    I am always in favour of Russell for Frolik.

    Just brainstorming.Throwing stuff up against the wall.

    Neal is so lousy. Blackhole offensively, drags even Bennett’s numbers under and he’s no stud.

  43. slopitch says:

    https://twitter.com/BrockOtten/status/1120016591108943873

    Also been really impressed with Alex Turcotte. He’s so aggressive away from the puck, but skilled on it. Ultra determined player. I think he or Byram would be #3 for me in this draft behind Hughes and Kaako.

    Ive been hoping for Turcotte. Sounds like he wont be around.

  44. oilersfan says:

    Reja: Only way you move Russell Sekera Manning Gagne or Lucic is with assets are retention that’s the reality hopefully Keith or the new GM is creative and on the ball.

    I have posted here over five times… both Stauffer and Gregor have stated that Russell could be moved for nothing with no sweetener added . He is not in the same realm as Lucic.

    Those of you pushing the narrative that trading him would involve a sweetener thinking you are better connected to the nhl than Gregor and Stauffer are just wrong. PleAse stop posting those ideas.

    As for sekera I assume salary would have to be retained but I suspect he will have an excellent recovery year, may be able to play 2rd in a pinch and is an excellent injury cover for Klefbom or
    Nurse . With his actual money owed going down on one year to 4.5 million I believe with a bounceback seaosn he could be movable in one year and hopefully jones will have one years experience at 3 d and would at that point be capabale cover for second pairing if Klefbom gets injured the following season.

  45. ArmchairGM says:

    dustrock:
    Other than Kaliyev which the math really does support, I agree with your top 10 LT.

    I think Turcotte might be more Toews than RNH.

    I think my dream scenario is that Turcotte drops to #8.

    He’s 3rd on my list…

  46. jtblack says:

    godot10:
    If Calgary would retain $1.75 million on Neal, would Russell for Neal make sense. It would be cap neutral for two years. Neal has no signing bonuses.

    I am always in favour of Russell for Frolik.

    Just brainstorming.Throwing stuff up against the wall.

    Grabbing Neal would be a great move ….. If you are trying collect power forwards that are “past due”.

    We should go after Backes too He’s been an HS lately just like Neal. well past due, and over paid!

  47. v4ance says:

    ☘️ 🏒SPR 🏒 ☘️ @TheOilKnight

    I should clarify something regarding GM Mark Hunter. He has always been known as an old school thinker who trust his eyes more than anything. A terrific eye for talent. While he may not use analytics personally, he has made it a focus in London. EDM fans should be aware of this.

    When it comes to analytics, I want the next GM to make it an inherent part of the decision making process, not an afterthought to confirm preconceived biases.

  48. jtblack says:

    Being ab NHL has to be a difficult job. Lots of respsonsibilities and tonnes of pressure And no GM can be perfect

    But how did this transpire for CGY …

    Treviling signs Troy Brouwer to a 4 year deal as a UFA. Brouwer is an aging Power Forward.
    .Brouwer plays poorly over 1st 2 years of his deal so GM decides to buy him out.

    Within days of the buyout, Treviling sells his trusted team on signing James Neal to a 5 yr deal as a UFA. Neal is an aging power forward. Neal’s 1st yr is Horrendous.

    Well done Brad.

  49. Reja says:

    oilersfan: I have posted here over five times… both Stauffer and Gregor have stated that Russell could be moved for nothing with no sweetener added . He is not in the same realm as Lucic.

    Those of you pushing the narrative that trading him would involve a sweetener thinkingyou are better connected to the nhl than Gregor and Stauffer are just wrong. PleAse stop posting those ideas.

    As for sekera I assume salary would have to be retained but I suspect he will have an excellent recovery year, may be able to play 2rd in a pinchand is an excellent injury cover for Klefbom or
    Nurse . With his actual money owed going down on one year to 4.5 million I believe with a bounceback seaosn he could be movable in one year and hopefully jones will have one years experience at 3 d and would at that point be capabale cover for second pairing if Klefbom gets injured the following season.

    If I’m another Gm and liked Russell and wanted him this year and was lucky enough to be on his modified exclusive trade list he better have salary retention, asset attached or me offloading a contract. If lm picking up the tab for 2 years without this I might find myself in chia’s golf foursome sooner than I think.

  50. Scungilli Slushy says:

    jtblack:
    Being ab NHL has to be a difficult job. Lots of respsonsibilities and tonnes of pressure And no GM can be perfect

    But how did this transpire for CGY …

    Treviling signs Troy Brouwer to a 4 year deal as a UFA. Brouwer is an aging Power Forward.
    .Brouwer plays poorly over 1st 2 years of his deal so GM decides to buy him out.

    Within days of the buyout, Treviling sells his trusted team on signing James Neal to a 5 yr deal as a UFA. Neal is an aging power forward.Neal’s 1st yr is Horrendous.

    Well done Brad.

    Agreed not impressive.
    I like what Gilman said about that sort of thing in one of the interviews I think linked here a while back.

    He said in regards to drafting get rid of bins related to size. Just get the best players. Size helps in physical battles for sure but if you can’t get to the battle it doesn’t matter. I think the Flames was size first and the analytics didn’t reveal potential decline or the analysts didn’t get the right message from the data.

    There was probably a lot of buying the memory and rep of the player, what the Oilers have done repeatedly. The problem with being bigger than average players now is so few large dudes have the speed or quickness and skill to match. They also tend to lose a step sooner, kiss of death on a fast league with increasingly younger (more energy) players.

  51. ArmchairGM says:

    jtblack:
    C Miller is under contract for 3 more years at $3.8 / per.

    Are we sure he is even avail?

    Prob would be perfect fit as 2 RHD. not sure QofC in Vegas.Avg boots worry me but seems to make a good 1st pass and can play PP.

    Good point. Colin Miller appears to play 3RD in Vegas, his numbers vs elites are alright but not as good as Matt Benning’s.

  52. slopitch says:

    Washington being able to be creative an get out of the Orpik deal makes it seem like good GMing is a thing. I do think the Oilers should be able move out of the Lucic deal but using Washington as the template, the Oilers have depth on D. So Jones + Lucic for a 4th?

    I still say this teams top need is 1RHD. I like Larsson plenty and wouldnt trade him. Would hope Barrie is available with Makar arriving. Barrie/Larsson 1A/1B would be ok. Not sure the cost. I dont think Id move the 8th for Barrie.

    1) Jones + Lucic for 4th
    2) JP + 2nd for Ehlers (Winnipeg has some big cap issues)
    3) Russel for 4th
    4) 2020 1st (unprotected!) for Barrie (Sakic was right once on Ottawa, lets see him to it again, this move is only possible if move #3 is possible)

    I suspect all these trades are too much in Oilers favor. But the Oilers are moving in 2 impact players for pieces that are currently not helping them. They’d also have enough cap space for a Derek Ryan type add and could likely add Benson/Marody and bring Person or Bear along with Sekera.

    Go Sharks! I think I still like McCrimmon the best (but what do I know other than group think). And go Blue Jackets (I like Kekäläinen’s risky style).

  53. ArmchairGM says:

    slopitch:
    https://twitter.com/BrockOtten/status/1120016591108943873

    Also been really impressed with Alex Turcotte. He’s so aggressive away from the puck, but skilled on it. Ultra determined player. I think he or Byram would be #3 for me in this draft behind Hughes and Kaako.

    Ive been hoping for Turcotte. Sounds like he wont be around.

    Great Minds and all that. Yeah, the Turcotte dream might be just that – a dream. But you never know… McKenzie’s latest list, which is a consensus of actual NHL scout’s rankings, has Turcotte at #7.

  54. John Chambers says:

    Trade targets should be teams that are re-building, getting younger, shedding salary, etc.

    We saw Minnesota do this with the Coyle and Niederreiter trades this past season.

    The ideal target would be Jared Spurgeon. Edmonton lad, can play top-pair or second pair. Would conceivably stay in Edmonton onto his next contract.

    Minny drafts 12th this June, just past when all the USHL studs like Boldy and Zegras will have been taken.

    I can foresee a deal that looks like: Benning and the 8th OV for Spurgeon and #12.

  55. Jaxon says:

    Lavoie got 3 goals and an assist in a 5-4 win last night to tie their series at 1. He now has 16G and 8A in 13GP. How much will his stock rise before the draft?

  56. ArmchairGM says:

    Reja: If I’m another Gm and liked Russell and wanted him this year and was lucky enough to be on his modified exclusive trade listhe betterhave salary retention, asset attached or me offloading a contract. If lm picking up the tab for 2 years without this I might find myself in chia’s golf foursome sooner than I think.

    So… you ARE the smartest man in the room? Is that what you’re saying?

  57. HenryDrix says:

    A great summation of the PC years.LT, thanks for your always diligent writing. Especially love the sledgehammer reference. I remember you calling that back when PC was hired, that there would be action and roster changes, unlike the Tambellini era.

    As this off-season rolls along, I find my frustration rising instead of subsiding. Some major questions still linger for me:
    1. What,officially, was “The Plan” that was referenced so often the last 4 seasons. Have we ever been told? I read the boards daily and have not seen it discussed by Bobby Nicks.
    2. Bobby Nicks is on record saying he did not do any real GM search. PC was available and he took the lazy route. Why this has not cost him his job? Maybe Katz wanted PC? So much for a forensic analysis. Epic fail.

    Watching these fantastic playoffs again confirms what I have stated on this blog before, and that is it that the regular season and playoffs are a totally different style of hockey. What brings success in one does not necessarily bring success in the other. I believe PC was trying to build a team that would be successful in the playoffs, the hard, heavy gritty style. He failed. I fear the new regime will chase the flawed Tampa model, and we will again be 4 years behind the curve.

    I need some hope, especially given that career high seasons from 97, 93 and 29 were not enough to get us to the playoffs. Bobby Nicks does not Instill any hope in me. I had hope when PC and TMac were hired. I had high hopes after 2016. I had hope renewed when Hitch was hired. Bloodied Hope lines the roadway of the past 4 years. In the words of Eoymer of Rohan (lotr reference) “do not trust a hope, it has forsaken these lands”. What are we Oiler fans to do….

  58. Pescador says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    The question re: Samorukov is valid because we know managers have been asking.

    That’s what a plus World Juniors followed by a plus, plus, plus World Juniors followed by a plus X 5 second half of the CHL season will do – he is a real real prospect.

    To me, Samorukov has the highest potential ceiling of all our prospect d-men – even higher than Bouchard.Of course, Bouchard is almost assured a solid NHL career while Samorukov may never make it (Bouchard more of a sure thing) but Samorukov is the one player that has the full skill-set to potentially be a true #1 guy.The likelihood that he reaches that lofty goal isn’t great but he’s got a wider range of skills than Bouchard does.

    Lots to be excited about regarding the progression of Samorukov.
    As per Woodguy;
    Elite D men typically announce themselves early on.
    We may not need to wait very long to have an answer to your question about how high his ceiling actually is.
    I am comfortable that Samorukov will be developed properly. Or at the very least be given every opportunity to do so.
    The excellent job that the coaching staff has done in Bakersfield cannot be overstated.

  59. leadfarmer says:

    John Chambers:
    Trade targets should be teams that are re-building, getting younger, shedding salary, etc.

    We saw Minnesota do this with the Coyle and Niederreiter trades this past season.

    The ideal target would be Jared Spurgeon. Edmonton lad, can play top-pair or second pair. Would conceivably stay in Edmonton onto his next contract.

    Minny drafts 12th this June, just past when all the USHL studs like Boldy and Zegras will have been taken.

    I can foresee a deal that looks like: Benning and the 8th OV for Spurgeon and #12.

    Wild would want that without their 12th and that’s if he’s available which I doubt he is

  60. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Psyche:
    Woodguy: Was Neal a poor bet from a data analysis perspective? His age would have sacred me off.

    Lowetide and Gregor with some good conversation on TSN 1260. According to Gregor, if Oilers hire “an average GM” they will have more success. I tend to agree, although I’d like to see them hit a home run with this acquisition. I’m in the same boat as Woodguy re: Hunter, there are a lot of unknown’s. That’s worrisome. I’ll be cheering for the Sharks tonight so that the Oilers can scratch the McCrimmon itch.

    His fancies looked below average last years, and was a drag on his linemates.

    His DFF% Rel (All comp)
    Name Season DFF%RC
    James Neal 20142015 2.6
    James Neal 20152016 0.3
    James Neal 20162017 1.0
    James Neal 20172018 -4.2

    His 5v5 scoring:
    20142015 1.83
    20152016 1.78
    20162017 1.47
    20172018 1.75

    Combined with the aging curve as you mentioned (31 this year) and that contract was not advisable and widely panned when it was signed.

    He scored well in the playoffs and that probably put a shine on him.

    Also,

    Scoring comes with opportunity with good players.

    He was a drag on the good players so his scoring dived as he didn’t get near as much time with the better players.

  61. John Chambers says:

    leadfarmer,

    Spurgeon only has a year left on his deal. I don’t think the Wild are going for it next year, so the thought of a high-end American prospect must have some appeal to them.

    He probably has similar value to Johnny Boychuk several years ago when the Bruins (Chiarelli mind you) who dealt him for two seconds.

  62. ArmchairGM says:

    Jaxon:
    Lavoie got 3 goals and an assist in a 5-4 win last night to tie their series at 1. He now has 16G and 8A in 13GP. How much will his stock rise before the draft?

    It will be interesting to watch. Caufield and Boldy having amazing results at the U-18’s complicates it somewhat.

  63. leadfarmer says:

    John Chambers,

    I would love to get Spurgeon.
    I think he at trade deadline gets a 1st and a b level prospect
    Don’t think Benning and moving up 4 spots has that kind of value

  64. Munny says:

    ArmchairGM: McKenzie’s latest list, which is a consensus of actual NHL scout’s rankings

    Not to pick on you, but this so-called consensus is not what McKenzie’s list is. His list is an average of the polled scouts’ rankings.

    As you can tell from the Otten quote above, consensus does not exist after the top two prospects. Which is pretty typical (sometimes it’s 3 or 4, sometimes 1, sometimes none like Hall/Seguin).

    What we should never do is talk about the “Consensus” Number 8, say. Because no such phenomenon exists in any draft year.

    Average. It’s an average, unless of course one believes all the rankings of all 10 scouts are identical.

  65. Jethro Tull says:

    John Chambers:
    Trade targets should be teams that are re-building, getting younger, shedding salary, etc.

    We saw Minnesota do this with the Coyle and Niederreiter trades this past season.

    The ideal target would be Jared Spurgeon. Edmonton lad, can play top-pair or second pair. Would conceivably stay in Edmonton onto his next contract.

    Minny drafts 12th this June, just past when all the USHL studs like Boldy and Zegras will have been taken.

    I can foresee a deal that looks like: Benning and the 8th OV for Spurgeon and #12.

    We should be targeting…….the Oilers?

  66. ArmchairGM says:

    Removing the stomping USA gave to Slovakia, the boxcars are interesting:

    Caufield 5-0-5
    Boldy 1-4-5
    Turcotte 2-2-4
    Hughes 1-2-3

    Now remove their PP points for the same 2 games:

    Caufield 4-0-4
    Boldy 0-3-3
    Turcotte 1-1-2
    Hughes 0-1-1

    I think Hughes has something to prove going into the elimination rounds. Can he score at 5v5 against better comp? Of note, it looks like Boldy and Caufield spend a lot of time together.

  67. Jethro Tull says:

    slopitch:
    Washington being able to be creative an get out of the Orpik deal makes it seem like good GMing is a thing. I do think the Oilers should be able move out of the Lucic deal but using Washington as the template, the Oilers have depth on D. So Jones + Lucic for a 4th?

    I still say this teams top need is 1RHD. I like Larsson plenty and wouldnt trade him. Would hope Barrie is available with Makar arriving. Barrie/Larsson 1A/1B would be ok. Not sure the cost. I dont think Id move the 8th for Barrie.

    1) Jones + Lucic for 4th
    2) JP + 2nd for Ehlers (Winnipeg has some big cap issues)
    3) Russel for 4th
    4) 2020 1st (unprotected!) for Barrie (Sakic was right once on Ottawa, lets see him to it again, this move is only possible if move #3 is possible)

    I suspect all these trades are too much in Oilers favor. But the Oilers are moving in 2 impact players for pieces that are currently not helping them. They’d also have enough cap space for a Derek Ryan type add and could likely add Benson/Marody and bring Person or Bear along with Sekera.

    Go Sharks! I think I still like McCrimmon the best (but what do I know other than group think). And go Blue Jackets (I like Kekäläinen’s risky style).

    4OV or 4th round pick? Because Jones should be worth a bit more than that. Adding a 4th rounder to Lucic would be the play.

  68. YKOil says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I cannot get on board with the “buyout or retain” for cap space – to me the only player to retain on is Lucic and there should simply be no buyouts.

    – bury Manning for a $1,075,000 cap savings

    I would retain on Manning. Same as burying him but I do free up the roster spot.

  69. frjohnk says:

    Lowetide: I am absolutely against trading Larsson. Sincerely. Nuge too.

    So its a package deal then, Larsson and Nuge for_______
    🙂

  70. leadfarmer says:

    ArmchairGM,

    Caufield is that first person shooter we’ve been looking for
    Wish he wasn’t circus sized

  71. ArmchairGM says:

    Munny: Not topick on you, but this so-called consensus is not what McKenzie’s list is.His list is an average of the polled scout’s rankings.

    As you can tell from the Otten quote above, consensus does not exist after the top two prospects.Which is pretty typical (sometimes it’s 3 or 4, sometimes 1, sometimes none like Hall/Seguin).

    What we should never do is talk about the “Consensus” Number 8, say.Because no such phenomenon exists in any draft year.

    Average. It’s an average, unless of course one believes all the rankings of all 10 scouts are identical.

    OK, so I misused the word consensus. But the fact remains that McKenzie’s list is based on what actual NHL scouts think – rather than freelance / media “scouts” – so it is therefore likely closer to the actual draft order than any other list. That’s reason for hope on the Turcotte front – which was my point.

  72. YKOil says:

    OriginalPouzar: I agree, 100% – unfortunately, the new GM may have a mandate re: immediate substantial improvement and I fear that was LT predicts is what we’ll see and it will simply lead to more pain in the medium term.

    Agreed. I believe there was substantial pressure to get better ‘RIGHT NOW’ and to ‘WIN RIGHT NOW”.

    And that played a major role in where we are, right now.

  73. Reja says:

    Woogie63:
    55 year old men, who played pro hockey, with a high school education are not inspiring anyone as the Oilers search for a new manager.

    Look to the NFL and the corporate world, a completely different skill set is emerging as the great thinkers.

    The normal day of a pro athlete, highlights working out, skills training, video, public relations work, a nap before the game, good nutrition.For most of us, we would call this part-time hours and a pampered job.

    The normal day for a top flight business executive is much, much different, increasingly I think we are all seeing their are track suits and blue suits and the skills to be successful are very different.

    Once you take out EX players from any decisions pertaining to a NHL team is the day the music stopped.

  74. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    LT, I see you often suggesting the new GM will look to trade Khaira – I know this is predicated on the rational that he has a bit of value but I still don’t get it.I agree he’s got some value but not a ton and the piece coming back would not be material.At the same time, this org is in need of value contract and, given Khaira will likely re-sign for around $1M, $1.5M max, he is likely to be a value contract for this team.Why trade that away for a middling return?

    Brian Burke mentioned Khaira as a player Toronto had interest in.

  75. Reja says:

    ArmchairGM: So… you ARE the smartest man in the room? Is that what you’re saying?

    Not even close but I try to be realistic when evaluating my team if you think Russell would bring back a positive return with no cap retention I would make that trade today. We have cheap prospects that need playing time ASAP they’ll be gone before we know what we have.

  76. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    “Combined with the aging curve as you mentioned (31 this year) and that contract was not advisable and widely panned when it was signed.”

    It’s like some GM’s beleive the guy they sign wont hit the cliff.
    There are not many exceptions to the Power Forward Age curve.

    IMO these type of players are actually more oroblematic nownthan ever before, due to the emphasis on speed in the NHL now. Most Power Forwards were not fleet a foot to begin with.

  77. ArmchairGM says:

    Reja: if you think Russell would bring back a positive return with no cap retention

    Nobody stated this in this thread.

  78. Reja says:

    YKOil: Agreed.I believe there was substantial pressure to get better ‘RIGHT NOW’ and to ‘WIN RIGHT NOW”.

    And that played a major role in where we are, right now.

    When you have your so called healthy defense in place spend to the cap and have Mcdavid and Leon 2 top 5 scorers in the league and still might not have peaked you dam well better make the playoffs and try to win the cup.

  79. godot10 says:

    John Chambers:
    Trade targets should be teams that are re-building, getting younger, shedding salary, etc.

    We saw Minnesota do this with the Coyle and Niederreiter trades this past season.

    The ideal target would be Jared Spurgeon. Edmonton lad, can play top-pair or second pair. Would conceivably stay in Edmonton onto his next contract.

    Minny drafts 12th this June, just past when all the USHL studs like Boldy and Zegras will have been taken.

    I can foresee a deal that looks like: Benning and the 8th OV for Spurgeon and #12.

    But you haven’t got rid of Russell to be able to pay for Spurgeon. If that doesn’t happen, then there is no money for forwards.

  80. Reja says:

    ArmchairGM: Nobody stated this in this thread.

    Well somebody is trying to inflate Russell’s tires with a bicycle pump.

  81. Oddspell says:

    godot10: But you haven’t got rid of Russell to be able to pay for Spurgeon.If that doesn’t happen, then there is no money for forwards.

    If we could offload Manning then we’re only talking about an extra $2mil or so. Should leave us about $ 7 mil for a backup and 5 forwards including Jesse, and Khaira.

    That’s tight. I really think to have any hope of being in the mix next year we need to offload one of Russell or Looch. Otherwise we can really only afford one upgrade and maybe some reclamation projects. To me it looks a heck of a lot like Russell is much easier to offload than Looch, so I think that should be the play.

  82. YKOil says:

    Reja: if you think Russell would bring back a positive return with no cap retention I would make that trade today.

    I am unsure of positive return and/or no retention but I am sure that a sideways move, without incentive, is entirely probable.

    Which then means that any salary retention, bad contracts back (as opposed to a contract back), pick-flips, etc. all enhance the return and could very well make it a positive return.

    i.e. Russell to Arizona for Demers would qualify as a bad contract back and Arizona would have to throw something in.

  83. Woogie63 says:

    Russell and a second for Adam Fox’s rights

    It will be next Tuesday before he realizes he has been trade to Carolina not Caroline 🙂

  84. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    Alpine: Vegas has 82.4 Mil committed next season. They have to sign Karlsson who’s an RFA. They will have to dump some players for cap space. Miller and Eakin are probably the most likely casualties.

    Wow…
    3rd season in league and they will have already hit the cap-screwed status!?
    That’s impressive… in a Chiarelli kind of way…

  85. Reja says:

    Crazy Pedestrian: Wow…
    3rd season in league and they will have already hit the cap-screwed status!?
    That’s impressive… in a Chiarelli kind of way…

    Vegas is better than last year they’re taking a darn tooting good run at the cup the next 5 years isn’t that the idea.

  86. Georgexs says:

    It’s the Connolly game.

    Your turn:

    “Two scoring wingers (Brett Connolly, Tyler Johnson)”

    My turn:

    Connolly had his best season this year: 46 points in 81 games, or 0.57 PPG. Almost all of it at even strength. Pretty good, a little below TJ, who admittedly had more PP points.

    But career rates are more useful than last year rates in predicting future performance. Larger samples and all that. Connolly’s career PPG @ 26 is 0.36. That’s not a scorer.

    That’s a journeyman who scores enough to stick in the league. A useful player, but not a scorer. To illustrate, here are some other first round draft picks since 2000-01 who had PPG of around 0.36 at 26:

    Nick Foligno, 0.44
    Andrew Cogliano
    Vladislav Namestnikov
    Tanner Pearson
    Chuck Kobasew
    Benoit Pouliot
    Jiri Tlusty
    Raffi Torres
    Steve Bernier
    Joe Colborne
    Brandon Sutter
    Rostislav Olesz
    Brett Connolly, 0.36
    Eric Fehr
    Patrick Eaves
    Riley Sheahan
    Lars Eller
    Daniel Paille
    Lauri Korpikoski
    Steve Ott
    Riley Nash
    Sean Bergenheim
    Beau Bennett
    Peter Holland
    Gilbert Brule
    Matt Pelech
    Zack Kassian, 0.30

    Who’s the scorer here? If you’re betting on Connolly to be a scorer on a line with RNH (a guy who himself hasn’t had an easy time scoring when away from the team’s best offensive talent), are you playing the odds or are you ignoring the odds?

    Tyler Johnson, otoh… 0.66 PPG for his career. He’s a scorer. With an NTC apparently. Sad. But TBL lost badly. Losing makes people do strange things. Here’s to TJ waiving his NTC to move from sunny Tampa to sunny Edmonton. Pro: It’s closer to his hometown: Spokane. Let’s tell him you can see it from here.

  87. JimmyV1965 says:

    YKOil: Agreed.I believe there was substantial pressure to get better ‘RIGHT NOW’ and to ‘WIN RIGHT NOW”.

    And that played a major role in where we are, right now.

    The Oilers are not in the toilet because there was substantial pressure to improve the team immediately. The team is in the toilet because Chia made awful trades and equally awful signings. Chia’s two worst trades were made in his first two years as GM when there was no pressure to improve right now. I think this was the first year when the pressure was tourqued up.

  88. YKOil says:

    Crazy Pedestrian: Wow…
    3rd season in league and they will have already hit the cap-screwed status!? That’s impressive… in a Chiarelli kind of way…

    Lol, yeah, but the flex is soooo different. Depending on insurance coverage I expect that Ottawa will be very interested in Clarkson and it isn’t a big step to picking up Holden as well.

    Clarkson, Holden and a 2nd for a ‘c’ level prospect and a late pick from Ottawa would probably work for Ottawa (giving them much of the Cap space they need). That drops $7.45m off of the Vegas Cap right there. Merrill would also be easy to move (another $1.375m).

    That brings them down to $73.5m in Cap and they can sign Karlsson with that easy enough.

    Miller is movable and so is Karlsson if they want to go that way. Vegas has OPTIONS. Oilers… less so.

  89. slopitch says:

    Jethro Tull: 4OV or 4th round pick? Because Jones should be worth a bit more than that. Adding a 4th rounder to Lucic would be the play.

    4th round pick.

    Colorado gave up a 2nd in the Orpik deal but Id argue Grauber is worth more than Jones and Lucic has a lot more term on his deal. If anything I think it costs Oilers more than Jones to ditch Lucic. Jmo.

  90. Georgexs says:

    Georgexs,

    MacT offered Pouliot a 5-year, $20M contract in the year BP was turning 28. The most BP had made in a season up to that point was $1.8M. BP was a 0.45 PPG player at the time he signed the Oilers contract. He was a 4OV who had scored 0.43 PPG two years earlier, when he was 26. TBL gave him a one-year $1.8M contract on the strength of his performance to that date.

    One of these teams is not like the other, not like the other…

  91. slopitch says:

    Georgexs:
    Georgexs,

    MacT offered Pouliot a 5-year, $20M contract in the year BP was turning 28. The most BP had made in a season up to that point was $1.8M. BP was a 0.45 PPG player at the time he signed the Oilers contract. He was a 4OV who had scored 0.43 PPG two years earlier, when he was 26. TBL gave him a one-year $1.8M contract on the strength of his performance to that date.

    One of these teams is not like the other, not like the other…

    MacT understood that all things equal a player will play in Tampa where the tax is much less and the weather is nice in the winter. His Nikitin contract was horrible too.

    Draft and develop baby!

  92. Alpine says:

    slopitch: 4th round pick.

    Colorado gave up a 2nd in the Orpik deal but Id argue Grauber is worth more than Jones and Lucic has a lot more term on his deal. If anything I think it costs Oilers more than Jones to ditch Lucic. Jmo.

    That’s why I don’t think the Oilers should be fooling themselves into thinking they can move a bottom sixer for his full $6 million cap hit with no money coming back. They’re gonna pay out the wazoo to do that.

    That much cap relief for the next few years would be nice, but having Caleb Jones during his last ELC year plus a cheap extension would also be nice.

    I wouldn’t worry too much about saving much cap in 2019 from moving Lucic. 1 or 2 million in relief is fine if you don’t give up much to move him. Seeing a huge cap benefit in the 6th and 7th years of his contract is the goal. Those are the years you REALLY don’t want to be spending 6 mil on Lucic.

  93. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ben: I’d be pretty surprised if McDavid/Orr weren’t, at some level, involved in the hiring.

    I sure hope not.

  94. OriginalPouzar says:

    JustWatt: Man, if the price was right…Leafs need some D, pretty sure Russel/Sekera not going to move the needle. Maybe Samorukov?

    Very high potential on Samorukov but I don’t think the Leafs would be looking to acquire a player that is a couple of years away from even playing in the NHL, let alone, being a difference maker.

    Also, cap space.

    Also, ups the value of player we lose in expansion draft (i.e. maybe Jones).

  95. oilersfan says:

    Reja: If I’m another Gm and liked Russell and wanted him this year and was lucky enough to be on his modified exclusive trade listhe betterhave salary retention, asset attached or me offloading a contract. If lm picking up the tab for 2 years without this I might find myself in chia’s golf foursome sooner than I think.

    Well it’s a good thing you have texting access to gm’s and pro scouts around the league as well as the entire oilers management team like stauffer and Gregor do. Why are you wasting your time posting here you should have your own radio show?

    Just because you don’t like Russell doesn’t mean the rest of the league doesn’t.

  96. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ben:
    Agree with OP. I value our high-end D prospects in this order, and would be extremely wary about moving the top-3.

    Bouchard
    Sam
    Jones
    Bear
    Lagesson

    But hey, chances are they won’t all play, and it’s the only area of notable depth in the entire org, so a good chance one or two of them move out along with a pick or a bigger contract.

    I put Lagesson up there with Jones and Jones/Lagesson ahead of Bear.

  97. BG19 says:

    For those of you on the Nicolaj Ehlers band wagon, he signed a seven year, $42 million dollar extension in 2017. I don’t think he fits in with Edmonton’s budget constraints.

  98. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: Only way you move Russell Sekera Manning Gagne or Lucic is with assets are retention that’s the reality hopefully Keith or the new GM is creative and on the ball.

    Don’t agree with Russell or Sekera.

    Maybe Russell would require a $500K retainment.

    Sekera should not be moved unless value is coming back.

    Come November, he’ll have that value back.

  99. Lowetide says:

    GeorgeXS: I’m betting Connolly’s current levels reflect a player who has turned a corner. Took a long time but he appears to be there. I like his overall skills a lot.

    In his last three seasons, his goals per 60 are 1.26, 0.83 and 1.27.

  100. OriginalPouzar says:

    John Chambers:
    leadfarmer,

    Spurgeon only has a year left on his deal. I don’t think the Wild are going for it next year, so the thought of a high-end American prospect must have some appeal to them.

    He probably has similar value to Johnny Boychuk several years ago when the Bruins (Chiarelli mind you) who dealt him for two seconds.

    I like the idea of Spurgeon as a one-year stop-gap.

    I would consider him a one-year rental (zero desire to sign him to a UFA contract for his 30s) so the acquisition cost would need to reflect the one-year usage of the player.

  101. OriginalPouzar says:

    YKOil: I would retain on Manning.Same as burying him but I do free up the roster spot.

    Yup, that’s fine too. Free up a spot on the 50.

    On the other hand, I’m not against Manning playing the Stanton roll for Bakersfield next year: Lowe and Manning as the veterans (as opposed to Lowe and Stanton) if they aren’t able to get out of the contract.

  102. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: Brian Burke mentioned Khaira as a player Toronto had interest in.

    I would think lots of team would have interest in him given what his 3rd contract is going to look like (cheap given a step-back year with injury and consistency). At the same time, I don’t see Toronto (or any other team) giving back a piece more valuable than Khaira on another cheap deal.

  103. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: Not even close butI try to be realistic when evaluating my team if you think Russell would bring back a positive return with no cap retention I would make that trade today. We have cheap prospects that need playing time ASAP they’ll be gone before we know what we have.

    I don’t think anyone was surmising we’d get value back in the trade – just a clean disposition.

    Yes, each of Lagesson, Bear and Jones lose their waiver exemptions after this season so we need to see them all at the NHL level. At the same time, we don’t need to “make room” for them, in my opinion. Firstly, teams almost always use 10 plus d-men through a season so each of them will have their chance and, secondly, don’t trade the incumbents until the replacements actually show they are ready and never look back (here is hoping 2 of these guys force themselves on to the roster – one right away and a second in-season).

  104. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar: I like the idea of Spurgeon as a one-year stop-gap.

    I would consider him a one-year rental (zero desire to sign him to a UFA contract for his 30s) so the acquisition cost would need to reflect the one-year usage of the player.

    There will be several puck moving D moving next year. It will be a good time for teams that are looking that have been wise enough to have cap space

  105. Pescador says:

    Georgexs:
    Georgexs,

    MacT offered Pouliot a 5-year, $20M contract in the year BP was turning 28. The most BP had made in a season up to that point was $1.8M. BP was a 0.45 PPG player at the time he signed the Oilers contract. He was a 4OV who had scored 0.43 PPG two years earlier, when he was 26. TBL gave him a one-year $1.8M contract on the strength of his performance to that date.

    One of these teams is not like the other, not like the other…

    When an agent looks at his caller ID & it says Oilers GM(#sucker) it means a raise & payday for him.
    Only has to convince his client that signing with the Oilers is the right thing to do.

  106. Georgexs says:

    1. If I have to trade Adam Larsson for a scoring winger, what is my best option for No. 1 RHD and don’t say ‘there isn’t one’.

    You’re asking who our best option for No. 1 RHD is if you have to trade Larsson? Why do you have to trade Larsson? Who hired you?

    2. If I trade Dmitri Samorukov are people going to hate me in 2022?

    Neither of us are going to be working here in 2022 and haters gonna hate. Besides, I don’t know who that is.

    3. What is a Lagesson?

    No idea, Dad. What IS a Lages?

    4. If you believe Evan Bouchard is going to be a productive player, and that Joel Persson is ready, then trading Ethan Bear is a reasonable option, right?

    Holy smokes, are these real people? Wait. I think I’ve heard their songs on the Easy Listening station I’ve got going in my Volvo. Can you talk to me about someone I know something about?

    5. Who signed Mikko Koskinen for three years?

    Thank you, next.

    6. How do you evaluate goalies?

    The same way I evaluate your m… no, sorry, sorry… Fair question. I don’t evaluate them when they’re struggling and my HC plays them non-stop. I know that much. But I also don’t give $ and term to a guy who’s played 27 games and put up a below median .911 at the time of the contract. And he’s turning 31. Let’s just say I wasn’t part of THAT group. Not a Mean Girl. Not even Cady Heron. More Janis Ian.

    7. Name three left wingers on the 50-man roster who are capable of scoring 15+ goals next season, and you can’t count 97, 29 and 93.

    Easy. Milan Lucic, Alex Chiasson, Tobias Rieder. They’ve all done it and scoring is easier than ever. By the way, I know you’re new at this but have you ever seen how many men fit on the bench? 50? I don’t think so.

    8. Name three left wingers on the roster better than Tyler Benson.

    Now you’re just making up names. I can do it too. Zach Aston-Reese. Boo Nieves.

    9. Jesse Puljujarvi doesn’t have a lot of trade value. Is there a role the new coach can use him in that will benefit player and team? Is a season in Finland a preferable option to trading him now or losing him on waivers?

    Yeah. The role is play him with goddamn skill players for the whole goddamn season. That will benefit player and team. A preferable option to trading him or losing him on waivers??? Geez Louise! Who hired you man? No, really.

    10. Why did a building team trade so many picks in 2014 and 2015? Craig?

    Which Craig? I’d be asking Simpson. What the hell was HE doing in 2014 and 2015?

    11. How did the Oilers give up 62 goals while shorthanded?

    We gave up one goal at a time.

    12. If Leon Draisaitl is the only main center over 50 percent (50.5), and Connor McDavid (46.6) and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (45.1), maybe we’re looking for centers instead of wingers? Righty centers who can play both?

    Over 50 percent of what? Faceoffs? The analytics guys we had before said faceoffs don’t matter. I’m confused. You want different analytics guys. On it, boss.

  107. slopitch says:

    Alpine: That’s why I don’t think the Oilers should be fooling themselves into thinking they can move a bottom sixer for his full $6 million cap hit with no money coming back. They’re gonna pay out the wazoo to do that.

    That much cap relief for the next few years would be nice, but having Caleb Jones during his last ELC year plus a cheap extension would also be nice.

    I wouldn’t worry too much about saving much cap in 2019 from moving Lucic. 1 or 2 million in relief is fine if you don’t give up much to move him. Seeing a huge cap benefit in the 6th and 7th years of his contract is the goal. Those are the years you REALLY don’t want to be spending 6 mil on Lucic.

    Maybe. If you trade Lucic on July 1st, that leaves 16 million to be paid for the remaining 4 years. There might be a non cap team willing to add Lucic + Jones for 4.75 million. Jones has value. Lucic is tough and there seems to be a history of players leaving Edmonton and improving.

  108. Professor Q says:

    BG19:
    For those of you on the Nicolaj Ehlers band wagon, he signed a seven year, $42 million dollar extension in 2017.I don’t think he fits in with Edmonton’s budget constraints.

    From my Winnipeg fan sources, he is apparently softer than Eberle. It might not be the best fit anyway, even if Edmonton could fit the contract in.

  109. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Crazy Pedestrian: Wow…
    3rd season in league and they will have already hit the cap-screwed status!?
    That’s impressive… in a Chiarelli kind of way…

    Their 82.4MM includes 5.25 for LTIR’d Clarkson.

    Clarkson’s contract was insured so it’s basically no cost cap hit that is tailor made for a trade to OTT (along with a small sweetener)

    Cap is ~83MM next year as well.

    They’ll have to juggle a couple of balls, but its not bad.

  110. McSorley33 says:

    Jets media member stating almost zero chance Jacob Trouba attends Winnipeg training camp this fall…

  111. Reja says:

    oilersfan: Well it’s a good thing you have texting access to gm’s and pro scouts around the league as well as the entire oilers management team like stauffer and Gregor do.Why are you wasting your time posting here you should have your own radio show?

    Just because you don’t like Russell doesn’t mean the rest of the league doesn’t.

    If you think Russell’s value around the league is higher then I do that’s your opinion. Question to you why exactly are we trying to trade him and exactly what do you think he’s worth.

  112. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar: I don’t think anyone was surmising we’d get value back in the trade – just a clean disposition.

    Yes, each of Lagesson, Bear and Jones lose their waiver exemptions after this season so we need to see them all at the NHL level. At the same time, we don’t need to “make room” for them, in my opinion. Firstly, teams almost always use 10 plus d-men through a season so each of them will have their chance and, secondly, don’t trade the incumbents until the replacements actually show they are ready and never look back (here is hoping 2 of these guys force themselves on to the roster – one right away and a second in-season).

    What I gather your saying and a few other folks is we would break even trading Russell this spring. I believe unless our next GM is named Anne Sullivan that’s not possible.

  113. Bulging Twine says:

    Georgexs,

    Clap, clap, clap

  114. Psyche says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Thank you!

  115. Georgexs says:

    Lowetide:
    GeorgeXS: I’m betting Connolly’s current levels reflect a player who has turned a corner. Took a long time but he appears to be there. I like his overall skills a lot.

    In his last three seasons, his goals per 60 are 1.26, 0.83 and 1.27.

    I’m not saying you’re wrong, LT. I’m saying the odds are against you being right. And so the wager, if the team chooses to make a wager at all, should reflect the odds. I chose a peer group for Connolly based on his age, his draft pedigree, and his career scoring rate. No one became a consistent scorer. Foligno was the best of the lot, but he only broke 40 points with CBJ twice (73, 51) in his seven seasons with the team.

    It’s easy to find numbers to support these outside picks. Someone must have seen Pouliot’s P60 in the seasons before he joined the Oil:

    10-11 2.01
    11-12 2.08
    12-13 2.51
    13-14 1.80

    And convinced themselves they were getting a hidden first line forward.

    I think Pouliot’s signing and career with us is instructive. Never reached another level. On a short leash. Very little patience from the team to wait for growth from a mid-to-late-20’s player. Withered under a different regime.

    Connolly would have to hit right away and always to cement his status as a top-6 player on our team, which is very unlikely as I’ve shown above with his peers. He currently has a margin for error in WSH. He’s a depth player. Expectations are low and he’s exceeded them by a mile. Not the same situation here at all. No margin for error for a 27-year old getting paid big $ at a lengthy term, playing regular top 6 minutes for the first time in his career, for a team that’s missed the playoffs for the past two seasons, a team with a new HC and GM, in a CRAZY MAD hockey market.

    No margin for error at all.

  116. leadfarmer says:

    McSorley33:
    Jets media member stating almost zero chance Jacob Troubaattends Winnipeg training camp this fall…

    He’s made his entire jets career centered around leaving the Jets.
    He’s going to US
    Is Steve Y signing him?

  117. Georgexs says:

    slopitch: MacT understood that all things equal a player will play in Tampa where the tax is much less and the weather is nice in the winter. His Nikitin contract was horrible too.

    Draft and develop baby!

    Another lesson here. Don’t pay players who don’t want to play for you.

    Draft and develop + make crafty trades + shop thrifty baby!

  118. RonnieB says:

    Reja: If I’m another Gm and liked Russell and wanted him this year and was lucky enough to be on his modified exclusive trade list he better have salary retention, asset attached or me offloading a contract. If lm picking up the tab for 2 years without this I might find myself in chia’s golf foursome sooner than I think.

    So, you like Russell, want him this year and consider yourself lucky to be on his trade list
    But
    he better have salary retention, asset attached or me offloading a contract

    One of these things is not like the other.

  119. Reja says:

    Professor Q: From my Winnipeg fan sources, he is apparently softer than Eberle. It might not be the best fit anyway, even if Edmonton could fit the contract in.

    Same soft hands but unlike Eberle he’s as fast as the wind easily scores 35 plus in Oilers silks

  120. leadfarmer says:

    Pesce playing on his off side
    Would be nice to have that kind of luxury

  121. Reja says:

    RonnieB: So, you like Russell, want him this year and consider yourself lucky to be on his trade list
    But
    he better have salary retention, asset attached or me offloading a contract

    One of these things is not like the other.

    Us older people call it being cheeky

  122. godot10 says:

    McSorley33:
    Jets media member stating almost zero chance Jacob Troubaattends Winnipeg training camp this fall…

    The Jets have the option of taking Trouba to arbitration, as a last resort. They can force one more year out of him.

  123. dessert1111 says:

    Not using any UFAs, best currently available…

    Draisalt, McDavid, Yamamoto
    Khaira, RNH, Gagner
    Benson, Marody, Puljujarvi
    Lucic, Cave, Kassian
    Brodziak, Currie

    Half those guys are question marks in those roles.

    I’m hoping for at least 3 forwards for, at the very least, competition. Realistically without being creative with money out I don’t know they can add more than one guy that isn’t also somewhat of a question mark.

  124. RedArmy says:

    Would this roster be an improvement next season?

    Draisaitl mcdavid Kassian
    Nugent-Hopkins Kadri Kapanen
    Benson marody Chiasson
    Gambardella cave gagner
    $900K Player Currie

    Lindholm Larsson
    Klefbom Benning
    Jones Sekera
    700K player

    Koskinen
    1 million player

    If my math is correct, and my trades reasonable (surely they aren’t) then this comes in the other a bit over a million in space left in an 83 cap hit world

  125. Mr DeBakey says:

    If you believe Evan Bouchard is going to be a productive player, and that Joel Persson is ready, then trading Ethan Bear is a reasonable option, right?

    Close! – trading Joel Persson is the most reasonable option.

  126. Jethro Tull says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Their 82.4MM includes 5.25 for LTIR’dClarkson.

    Clarkson’s contract was insured so it’s basically no cost cap hit that is tailor made for a trade to OTT (along with a small sweetener)

    Cap is ~83MM next year as well.

    They’ll have to juggle a couple of balls, but its not bad.

    The guy who wanted to sign Clarkson is still here and will be advising the new GM……

  127. oilersfan says:

    Reja,

    I am not basing this on my opinion I am basing it on what I was told by Stauffer and Gregor.

    The average nhl salary next year on a 23 man roster is $3.6 million.

    Russell is a 4/5 making the average nhl salary. I don’t think it will be hard to move, and neither do the two guys in town that talk to other teams’ gm’s and pro scouts as their job

  128. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Washington added Dowd who is a faceoff winning RC and Jensen a RD for little. Dowd doesn’t score a lot but holds the fort and Jensen had to step up and is playing a lot and not getting crushed.

    I don’t think they need an offensive RD because the pipeline has them and there is only room for two at most. Someone has to be defensively strong. Ideally an offensive and a defensive but competent D on each pair.

    There are the players the Oilers need out there that are undervalued or low cost, but without analytics and proper assessment you need an army of good eyeballs and the Oilers have neither an army or good.

    Still at the root of the problem is getting the most out of what they have. Each season is different. Bringing the blender and red ass because playing defensively and on the boards is important is clumsy.

    Our man Sather didn’t even have them playing any defensive system until they had gone through some playoff losses. All offense all the time.

    Things are different now, but there should be a balance with learning the grind and finding team mojo. When you have thoroughbreds you have to run them, hard, but not stupid.

  129. godot10 says:

    oilersfan:
    Reja,

    I am not basing this on my opinion I am basing it on what I was told by Stauffer and Gregor.

    The average nhl salary next year on a 23 man roster is $3.6 million.

    Russell is a 4/5 making the average nhl salary. I don’t think it will be hard to move, and neither do the two guys in town that talk to other teams’ gm’s and pro scouts as their job

    One should really look at the median NHL salary with all the entry level contracts removed, and impose a game played threshold.

    Take the oranges out and only count apples. And the outsized apples at the tail of the distribution should only count for one.

  130. Scungilli Slushy says:

    oilersfan:
    Reja,

    I am not basing this on my opinion I am basing it on what I was told by Stauffer and Gregor.

    The average nhl salary next year on a 23 man roster is $3.6 million.

    Russell is a 4/5 making the average nhl salary. I don’t think it will be hard to move, and neither do the two guys in town that talk to other teams’ gm’s and pro scouts as their job

    This is also why moving Lucic is possible. He has good possession numbers, so even analytics teams ‘can’ value him. He is also Lucic. His cash hit after bonus July 1 is 4M.

    It’s about a skilled GM. Retain 1M and there is a deal there for sure IMO and a win win.

    There are currently other reasons why sanity evades the Oilers.

  131. Lowetide says:

    GeorgeXS: I think most free agent signing models estimate low, which is fine for argument but the actual dollars spent are inflated at the top. Where we might disagree is where to place Connolly. I don’t have him top tier, but do have him high in the group Edmonton can afford.

  132. Reja says:

    oilersfan:
    Reja,

    I am not basing this on my opinion I am basing it on what I was told by Stauffer and Gregor.

    The average nhl salary next year on a 23 man roster is $3.6 million.

    Russell is a 4/5 making the average nhl salary. I don’t think it will be hard to move, and neither do the two guys in town that talk to other teams’ gm’s and pro scouts as their job

    I like Russell he’s heart and soul but he is a stop gap 4-5 for parts of the season. Ask any of your buddies that cheer for different teams if they would like free of charge no questions asked Russell as your number 4-5 as you put it full time for 4 mil for the next two years I think other fan bases are pretty close and knowledgeable what Russell worth is.

  133. Pescador says:

    dessert1111:
    Not using any UFAs, best currently available…

    Draisalt, McDavid, Yamamoto
    Khaira, RNH, Gagner
    Benson, Marody, Puljujarvi
    Lucic, Cave, Kassian
    Brodziak, Currie

    Half those guys are question marks in those roles.

    I’m hoping for at least 3 forwards for, at the very least, competition. Realistically without being creative with money out I don’t know they can add more than one guy that isn’t also somewhat of a question mark.

    Yamamoto needs to return to the Condors at the start of next season even if there are no additional forwards added in the offseason.
    As it stands today, Kassian is the best option for 1RW.
    Also, when Yamamoto is promoted to the NHL don’t you think it would be better to start him at 3RW?

  134. OriginalPouzar says:

    Mr DeBakey:
    If you believe Evan Bouchard is going to be a productive player, and that Joel Persson is ready, then trading Ethan Bear is a reasonable option, right?

    Close!– trading Joel Persson is the most reasonable option.

    If acquiring speed and mobility is a primary objective, this wouldn’t be the case.

    Given Bouchard, Persson, Bear and Jones all potentially able to play RD in the NHL very soon, I am fine with trading one of the last 3 if the return is right and the return would likely need to be a very similar level forward – a solid NHL-bet forward that has performed very well in the AHL and looks to be on the verge of NHL readiness. Jones would require a higher level prospect back than Bear.

    One of the three (and throw Lagesson in there) could also be used as a sweetener in a bigger deal but some solid value would need to be allocated – not just a throw in because of new found depth.

    Bouchard and Samorukov are higher level prospects.

  135. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: I like Russell he’s heart and soul but he is a stop gap 4-5 for parts of the season. Ask any of your buddies that cheer for different teams if they would like free of charge no questions asked Russell as your number 4-5 as you put it full time for 4 mil for the next two years I think other fan bases are pretty close and knowledgeable what Russell worth is.

    GMs sign players like Troy Brower to 4 X $4.5M and Ryan Reaves to 2 X $2.775M – these are GMs that have built very good teams (one one the cup last year and the other finished 1st in the West this year).

    There are certain attributes that GMs still value notwithstanding numbers – Russell’s value is likely the highest coming off the playoffs and the type of hockey that wins.

  136. Ice Sage says:

    jtblack:
    Ok, Great Post. Hoppy Easter Monday!

    “Why did a building team trade so many picks in 2014 and 2015? Craig?”

    Edmonton has limited depth right now because off this.Thankfully all 2016 /:2017 / 2018 picks were made amd the depth will start arrving this fall.

    LT : BYRAM comparable: Morgan Reilly.I think his game is similiar at both ends of the ice and overall (skating, size, O , D)

    Apparently Peyton Krebs is highly dedicated to fitness and off ice training.(source is ex teammate / leaguemate)

    I think he would be a Great Add.

    Byram’s a couple inches shorter and 30 lbs lighter than Rielly and doesn’t (need to) play as physical a game. Having watched a lot of WHL over the years, Matt Dumba is the better comp. He won’t be available at #8, that’s certain. Krebs might not be either, which is too bad.

  137. OriginalPouzar says:

    Samorukov with a primary PP assist on an insurance goal with apx 10 min left as Guelph is looking to get back in the series with Saginaw!

  138. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pescador: Yamamoto needs to return to the Condors at the start of next season even if there are no additional forwards added in the offseason.
    As it stands today, Kassian is the best option for 1RW.
    Also, when Yamamoto is promoted to the NHL don’t you think it would be better to start him at 3RW?

    Oh, yes, he definitely needs to start next year on the Condors and get a damn good stretch of games – something he hasn’t been able to get this year with the injuries. Hopefully he is able to get back in the lineup soon and join the Condors for their playoff run.

    No matter what Yamamoto does at camp and in exhibition next year, we know it means absolutely nothing with respect to NHL readiness.

    AHL for Kailer, and that is just fine – lets develop this player like a 22nd overall pick should be and not put top 10 pick expectations/timelines on him (and the org).

  139. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar: If acquiring speed and mobility is a primary objective, this wouldn’t be the case.

    Given Bouchard, Persson, Bear and Jones all potentially able to play RD in the NHL very soon, I am fine with trading one of the last 3 if the return is right and the return would likely need to be a very similar level forward – a solid NHL-bet forward that has performed very well in the AHL and looks to be on the verge of NHL readiness.Jones would require a higher level prospect back than Bear.

    One of the three (and throw Lagesson in there) could also be used as a sweetener in a bigger deal but some solid value would need to be allocated – not just a throw in because of new found depth.

    Bouchard and Samorukov are higher level prospects.

    Bouchard will be pushing next season and will have a learning curve. Who they need to be looking at replacing is Larsson.

    All of the RHD prospects are offensive D. They have Lagesson LD who has a rounded game. I’m not sure about Jones other than he has NHL chops.

    The GM needs to find balance in the prospect pool to replace current players. If one side is offensive the other needs defensive awareness as a priority. Everyone needs to be able to skate and pass at a minimum. They need to be able to make balanced pairs.

    It’s not a problem it’s an opportunity. Finally.

  140. JimmyV1965 says:

    Georgexs: I’m not saying you’re wrong, LT. I’m saying the odds are against you being right. And so the wager, if the team chooses to make a wager at all, should reflect the odds. I chose a peer group for Connolly based on his age, his draft pedigree, and his career scoring rate. No one became a consistent scorer. Foligno was the best of the lot, but he only broke 40 points with CBJ twice (73, 51) in his seven seasons with the team.

    It’s easy to find numbers to support these outside picks. Someone must have seen Pouliot’s P60 in the seasons before he joined the Oil:

    10-11 2.01
    11-12 2.08
    12-13 2.51
    13-14 1.80

    And convinced themselves they were getting a hidden first line forward.

    I think Pouliot’s signing and career with us is instructive. Never reached another level. On a short leash. Very little patience from the team to wait for growth from a mid-to-late-20’s player. Withered under a different regime.

    Connolly would have to hit right away and always to cement his status as a top-6 player on our team, which is very unlikely as I’ve shown above with his peers. He currently has a margin for error in WSH. He’s a depth player. Expectations are low and he’s exceeded them by a mile. Not the same situation here at all. No margin for error for a 27-year old getting paid big $ at a lengthy term, playing regular top 6 minutes for the first time in his career, for a team that’s missed the playoffs for the past two seasons, a team with a new HC and GM, in a CRAZY MAD hockey market.

    No margin for error at all.

    Great post. Signing Connolly for term and money is setting him up for failure. Even at $4 mill the expectation is that he plays top 6, which he has never really done. If he’s signed for $3 mill the expectations change. As a general rule though, the only third liner who should be paid $3 mill + is the centre.

  141. OriginalPouzar says:

    Guelph takes game 3!

  142. Dr. Taboggan says:

    Yeah I really like Connolly but I would absolutely not sign him for more than 3×3.

    I would prefer the Oilers to identify the next ‘Connolly’ and sign him for league minimum.

    The Oilers cannot afford to overpay in free agency again.

  143. Munny says:

    That disallowed goal might cost the Caps the series.

    Plus the wonder that is Williams.

  144. Wilde says:

    Georgexs:
    3. What is a Lagesson?

    No idea, Dad. What IS a Lages?

    It was competitive, but this one was the worst.

  145. Reja says:

    Munny:
    That disallowed goal might cost the Caps the series.

    Plus the wonder that is Williams.

    Have to love the passion by Ovechkin I would not bet against him that man is on a mission.

  146. Munny says:

    Reja,

    The closest comp to OV is Mr. Hockey himself, the original Hockey Gord.

  147. Alpine says:

    slopitch,

    I just don’t want to trade Jones as a sweetener. Bear, sure. And even then I’d hope to get a useful player back.

    I’d look at using picks to move Lucic. Our 2019/2020 2nd/3rd rounders won’t help for a few years anyways.

  148. dessert1111 says:

    Pescador: Yamamoto needs to return to the Condors at the start of next season even if there are no additional forwards added in the offseason.
    As it stands today, Kassian is the best option for 1RW.
    Also, when Yamamoto is promoted to the NHL don’t you think it would be better to start him at 3RW?

    Aside from Draisalt you could pretty much move those wingers up and down the line up. They should all be on the 3/4 line.

    My point is though that there are a lot of gaps and they aren’t going to be able to find sure fire things for all those spots without some astute moves.

  149. Munny says:

    ArmchairGM,

    Thank you for your reply. I apologize if you feel my post was aimed at you. It wasn’t. I go through this usage every year. I don’t typically beat a drum daily like Godot or OP or many others, but every Spring I do rail against the consensus on consensus, when the spirit moves me.

  150. Munny says:

    Alpine: I’d look at using picks to move Lucic.

    I sometimes feel like the search for the GM who will take Lucic in a trade is as important as the search for the GM whose job it will be to make the trade.

  151. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Obsessing about one player or contract is OBC.

    Every team has a bad contract or under performing player, or both, or more.

    The key is about icing a good team that isn’t capped out. Unless it is already set.

    Other wise leave cap space for jumping on value buys.

    Liquidating cap space based on what is coming up from the farm and low end signings, etc etc, is key.

    Whether it’s Luc, Sekera, Russell, Gagner, Manning, Koskinen, doesn’t matter if the replacement is there. Basically what a capable GM would do.

    And remember Lucic’s possession numbers are helpful. A new coach might get some offense from him and everyone else that suddenly couldn’t score and cratered in confidence.

    Which is very unusual and should be strongly considered hiring a new coach. Really.

    See NYI.

  152. Munny says:

    Speaking of The Search… Hunter worries me.

    I think it’s failing to beat out Dubas for the Toronto job.

    What did they see to give the younger less-experienced guy the reins?

    Is he smart enough? Forward-looking enough? Innovative, finding edges?

    Can he build an NHL team?….a different story than building a Jr. team. The CHL has pronounced success cycles, far less team depth than the Bigs, and you’re only thinking about a draftee’s next few years, not his next ten. And the horse-trading is completely different.

    There’s going to be questions about whoever “wins” the job, I guess. But I would prefer TLBOH or MacCrimmon.

    And yet, not one of Tampa, Toronto or Vegas can say this particular iteration of their respective organisations has had the ultimate success.

  153. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Blaming players en masse is the weak out of a weak org.

    Yes some players are failing out, but when teams fail out that isn’t it.

  154. Munny says:

    Dallas is doing everything they can to not go to OT.

  155. Munny says:

    Scungilli Slushy,

    En masse is ridiculous.

    Usually it’s the goalie’s fault.

    🙂

  156. Munny says:

    An awful penalty to call with two left.

  157. YKOil says:

    I like Connolly in the 2.75×4 to 3.15×3 range.

    Any less and you got a deal.

    Any more and you are better off letting someone else sign him and then taking a good hard look at the pay details to see if you can scoop him when they get mad at how much he makes vs. production. You can also look at fobbing off a bad contract or getting them to retain some salary or, even, get him coming off a buy-out.

  158. YKOil says:

    If Carolina wins that series I take special care to pay attention to Washington’s demeanor.

    I remain on the Jensen bandwagon and if Washington decides they really want to mix it up I look to snag him out of there.

  159. Reja says:

    Munny:
    Reja,

    The closest comp to OV is Mr. Hockey himself, the original Hockey Gord.

    He’s gaining on Crosby quickly

  160. oilersfan says:

    How can I find the wowy for players? Corsi, plus minus , goals for etc?

    Did Lucic ruin Strome for the oilers ? And single handedly ruin JP’’s nhl experience to date?

  161. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar: GMs sign players like Troy Brower to 4 X $4.5M and Ryan Reaves to 2 X $2.775M – these are GMs that have built very good teams (one one the cup last year and the other finished 1st in the West this year).

    There are certain attributes that GMs still value notwithstanding numbers – Russell’s value is likely the highest coming off the playoffs and the type of hockey that wins.

    Ryan Reaves is well worth the money for a team taking a cup run. The sales pitch on Russell was really weak the only way we dump him for nothing is at next next years trade deadline. I hope I’m wrong but we need D that can get it up ice quick

  162. Pescador says:

    OriginalPouzar: Oh, yes, he definitely needs to start next year on the Condors and get a damn good stretch of games – something he hasn’t been able to get this year with the injuries.Hopefully he is able to get back in the lineup soon and join the Condors for their playoff run.

    No matter what Yamamoto does at camp and in exhibition next year, we know it means absolutely nothing with respect to NHL readiness.

    AHL for Kailer, and that is just fine – lets develop this player like a 22nd overall pick should be and not put top 10 pick expectations/timelines on him (and the org).

    Watching Rocco Grimaldi having playoff success with Nashville is giving further reason to believe in Yamamoto,
    For those who don’t

  163. Reja says:

    Great games hockey is at its best when the refs let them play.

  164. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Munny: en masse

    Always!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Sometimes

  165. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Pescador: Watching Rocco Grimaldi having playoff success with Nashville is giving further reason to believe in Yamamoto,
    For those who don’t

    You see them as similar?

  166. Bling says:

    LT: I would be comfortable moving Bear.

    IMO, he doesn’t have the mobility or size to handle the toughs at evens in the NHL in a top 4 role.

    You’re then left with a bottom pairing PP specialist, a role where Persson and/or Bouchard could conceivably outperform him. Not to mention that Nurse and Klefbom will also be vying for special teams ice time.

  167. Glovjuice says:

    Mammoth tusks from the Russian permafrost. This is Ovi.

  168. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Bling:
    LT: I would be comfortable moving Bear.

    IMO, he doesn’t have the mobility or size to handle the toughs at evens in the NHL in a top 4 role.

    You’re then left with a bottom pairing PP specialist, a role where Persson and/or Bouchard could conceivably outperform him. Not to mention that Nurse and Klefbom will also be vying for special teams ice time.

    Bouchard makes every RD expendable in the system because they are all the same type of player with less size and skill than he has.

    Bear especially, Marino, Day, etc aren’t going to pass him. Bouchard will not likely be a solid top 4 soon.

    I expect Bouchard to be in the NHL by year end, I agree he should have to push up from the A.

    The question is who backs up Larsson properly?

  169. Pescador says:

    Scungilli Slushy: You see them as similar?

    I do,
    Not just the similar stature
    but the tenacity that those types of players have to have.
    Neither is afraid of the difficult areas or the puck battles that are found there.
    Yamamoto might have better scoring ability, he just needs to get his man strength. It will come

  170. godot10 says:

    Pescador: Watching Rocco Grimaldi having playoff success with Nashville is giving further reason to believe in Yamamoto,
    For those who don’t

    Rocco Grimaldi is on his 3rd NHL organization. He didn’t see an NHL game till his draft+3 season. He didn’t play more than a quarter of an NHL season till his draft+7 season. He was allowed to stay in college for 3 more years, and then played mostly four more years in the NHL till becoming a tweener who topped out this season with 5 goals and 13 points in 53 games.

  171. OriginalPouzar says:

    Condors play their first ever home playoff game tonight and I’m jazzed to tune in.

    We essentially knew that Bouchard wasn’t going to play in the first few games but, with the team losing last game and this one being at home, I could see him possibly being in the lineup tonight. It would likely be Day that would come out, the first star of game 1 (yup, the defence is tough to crack).

    Woodcroft and Manson could very well keep status quo as well.

  172. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: Ryan Reaves is well worth the money for a team taking a cup run. The sales pitch on Russell was really weak the only way we dump himfor nothing is at next next years trade deadline. I hope I’m wrong but we need D that can get it up ice quick

    Almost 3 million for multiple years for a 4th liner who plays zero on the PK on a team that is going to be in a huge cap issue in a few weeks is well worth it? If that is true, it goes to show that GMs are willing to overpay for certain attributes which is exactly why some think Russell can be disposed of clean in the off-season.

  173. ArmchairGM says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Bouchard will be pushing next season and will have a learningcurve. Who they need to be looking at replacing is Larsson.

    All of the RHD prospects are offensive D. They have Lagesson LD who has a rounded game. I’m not sure about Jones other than he has NHL chops.

    The GM needs to find balance in the prospect pool to replace current players. If one side is offensive the other needs defensive awareness as a priority. Everyone needs to be able to skate and pass at a minimum. They need to be able to make balanced pairs.

    It’s not a problem it’s an opportunity. Finally.

    Could Filip Berglund be a Larsson replacement? He didn’t take the step forward this season that was expected – LT’s ‘prospects don’t develop in straight lines’ is ringing in my ears – but I understand that he’s a great 2-way defenseman with excellent positioning, mobility and gap control.

    Maybe @SwedishPoster could comment?

  174. OriginalPouzar says:

    At this point, I think its a large stretch to think about Berglund in the Oilers top 4 any time in the next few years. He very well may never play an NHL game or even sign an NHL contract.

  175. ArmchairGM says:

    Munny:
    ArmchairGM,

    Thank you for your reply.I apologize if you feel my post was aimed at you.It wasn’t.I go through this usage every year.I don’t typically beat a drum daily like Godot or OP or many others, but every Spring I do rail against the consensus on consensus, when the spirit moves me.

    I agree that the word is misused frequently – especially in relation to the draft – so I have no problem with you pointing it out. I don’t feel it changes my point though: McKenzie’s list is consistently the most accurate predictor of actual draft position, although all it takes is 1 team to throw the whole thing off by 1 or 2 spots… which is what we need to happen. If Turcotte is likely to go 7th, we just need 1 team ahead of us to go “off the board” (misnomer because there is no consensus) with their selection and we’re golden. It happens every year.

    I guess I could sum up my ramblings thus: just because I have Turcotte 3rd on my board doesn’t mean he won’t be available at #8.

  176. Lowetide says:

    For The Athletic: Adam Larsson’s importance to the Oilers and why trading him is a bad idea

    https://theathletic.com/938531/2019/04/23/lowetide-adam-larssons-importance-to-the-oilers-and-why-trading-him-is-a-bad-idea/

  177. ArmchairGM says:

    oilersfan:
    How can I find the wowy for players? Corsi, plus minus , goals for etc?

    Did Lucic ruin Strome for the oilers ? Andsingle handedly ruin JP’’s nhl experience to date?

    I use naturalstattrick.com frequently. You can use the Players > Line Tool or Players > On Ice, select player name, then from the player summary page select Teammates and click Submit. You can play around with other filters such as game state (5v5, 5v4, etc) and rates (g/60, p/60, etc) as well.

  178. ArmchairGM says:

    Lowetide:
    For The Athletic: Adam Larsson’s importance to the Oilers and why trading him is a bad idea

    https://theathletic.com/938531/2019/04/23/lowetide-adam-larssons-importance-to-the-oilers-and-why-trading-him-is-a-bad-idea/

    What do you think of Filip Berglund being a potential replacement for Larsson 2 years down the road? Or is that a pipedream? Do you see anyone else in the system that could potentially play the heavy defensive minutes Larsson does?

  179. jp says:

    oilersfan:
    How can I find the wowy for players? Corsi, plus minus , goals for etc?

    Did Lucic ruin Strome for the oilers ? And single handedly ruin JP’’s nhl experience to date?

    At least one source is Natural Stat Trick (http://www.naturalstattrick.com/).

    Go to Players. More filters to select the team etc. Click on the player you want then go to the pull down menu that says Player Summary and select Teammates instead.

    As for Lucic ruining Puljujarvi, quite the opposite. For his career, every one of JP’s metrics is better with Lucic than without (biggest gap is GF% which is 53.5% with Lucic and 41.9% without Lucic). He has also scored marginally more with Lucic than without, though it’s close (1.16 vs 1.14 P/60).

    Strome was better with Lucic in every metric too except GF%, likely due to their 979 PDO together. Their xGF was 56.7%. P/60 was 1.20 with Lucic and 1.27 without.

    I almost feel like I’m defending Lucic here, but he was absolutely not the source of their failures.

  180. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pretty excited for the Condors game tonight – Missed all but the 1st period of game 2 while overseas.

    With home ice and coming off a loss, will Bouchard get inserted in to the lineup? I’m hoping but am not expecting. I saw that Stanton was interview meaning he’s playing. Day is the only other option to come out (and the likely option) and he’s been a key part of the PP and offence all season and was a startin game 1.

    Also hopeful that Yamamoto is healthy enough to play but, again, not expecting it. Last I heard from Woodcroft last week was “day to day” but didn’t really sound like he was all that close.

  181. Reja says:

    Have you heard if Bouchard is in the lineup yet?

  182. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    “But to say that Lowe and MacTavish were not exactly on the same page as Nicholson when it comes to hockey matters would not be a stretch. When Nicholson was hired by Katz a year ago, he came to the Oilers expecting to have more say over hockey matters, but was apparently overruled by Lowe. ”

    – ““I support Bob in the changes he has implemented and I am very excited about the bright future for the Edmonton Oilers, the City of Edmonton and Oilers fans everywhere,” said Lowe”

    ““My to-do list is pretty big right now,” Chiarelli said at his introductory news conference.”

    “While Chiarelli ended the Oilers’ 10-year absence from the playoffs and drafted generational talent Connor McDavid, arguably the game’s best player after three seasons, he also has made several moves – such as trading Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle and signing Milan Lucic – that haven’t reaped rewards.”

    “Chiarelli assembled a roster that skated to its first 100-point campaign since 1986-87, earned a berth in the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the first time since 2005-06 and posted a League-leading 33-point improvement over 2015-16. Chiarelli acquired defensemen Adam Larsson (trade) and Kris Russell (free agent) during the offseason, bolstering a blue line that helped the Oilers cut their goals-against total (excluding shootouts) to 207, their fewest over an 82-game season since 2001-02. The first-time NHL Awards finalist also added veteran forwards Milan Lucic (offseason free agent) and David Desharnais (trade deadline) to complement homegrown stars Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Jordan Eberle and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.”

    ““I want to thank Kevin, Patrick and Craig for their commitment and contributions to the Oilers over the past many years,” said Katz. “No one should question the heart, integrity, dedication or capability of any of these individuals.”

    “I’m the person who hired Peter Chiarelli. When we hired Peter Chiarelli and when we hired Todd McLellan we thought we were getting a top general manager and a top coach. It didn’t work out in this situation. We’re going to go back. This time, we’re going to interview a lot of people.”

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