Too Much By Plenty

by Lowetide

Last summer, after winning Stanley, the Washington Capitals were faced with some tough decisions. Badly in need of cap room, and with substantial free agents to sign, the potential for madness existed.

Washington solved the cap issue by trading Brooks Orpik and his $5.5-million cap to Colorado, with goalie Philipp Grubauer as the sweetener. It allowed the team to sign John Carlson (the big piece) long term, and make smaller (but important) moves like adding Nic Dowd to replace Jay Beagle. Caps even got Orpik back at a lower price in free agency.

Turnover is necessary in the NHL. Massive turnover is madness. How much have the Oilers done in recent summers? Too much by plenty.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group.INSANE NEW OFFER IS HERE!

  • New Lowetide: Tyler Benson’s comparables offer Oilers fans plenty of hope for the future.
  • New Lowetide: Making the call on the Oilers’ RFAs with a new general manager on the way.
  • Lowetide: Red Wings front office shuffle could impact Oilers’ future.
  • Jonathan Willis: Potential coaching candidates and why the Oilers don’t need to rush the GM search to get one
  • Lowetide: What would Glen Sather do with these Oilers?
  • Jonathan Willis: Some creative solutions to address the Oilers’ goalie problem
  • Lowetide: The Milan Lucic saga rolls into Year 4 for Oilers with no easy answers
  • Jonathan Willis: Who stays and who goes? An early projection of which players will remain on the Oilers’ roster in 2019-20
  • LowetideHow high can these Condors fly?
  • Lowetide: Ron Hextall’s patient approach as GM would be shock to Oilers’ system
  • Jonathan Willis: Michael Futa’s success at the NHL Draft makes him a credible GM candidate for the Oilers
  • Lowetide: The Oilers possible summer trade pieces, and which longtime players might be saying goodbye.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ten prospects likely to be available when the Oilers make their first-round pick.
  • Jonathan Willis: Bob Nicholson mostly says the right things, but stalls on making changes to the Oilers.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The pressure’s squarely on Bob Nicholson to make right GM hire for Oilers.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers Report Cards: Few passing grades remain in season full of failure.
  • Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers, the republic of Finland and the 2019 draft.
  • Lowetide: The Oilers made a rare move and shopped the QMJHL at the 2018 draft. It could happen again.
  • Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers draft early, the WHL is loaded and there’s a lot of history.
  • Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers and the OHL.

CHIARELLI TO DO, 2015

  1. Draft McDavid (check)
  2. Find a quality goalie option (his answer was Cam Talbot)
  3. Acquire a legit top pairing blue (Andrej Sekera)
  4. Acquire a more offensive two-way F (Lauri Korpikoski)
  5. Ignore MacT re: Marincin (dealt for No. 107 overall)

I keep track of the ‘needs list’ each summer, Chiarelli had five things he needed to accomplish in his first summer. He checked off three of the five, made a poor decision on Korpikoski and dealt Marincin.

That’s not all he did. He made seven trades over the summer, acquiring Griffin Reinhart, Cam Talbot, Eric Gryba, Lauri Korpikoski and Anders Nilsson. Added to the free agents (Sekera, Mark Letesu), it made eight additions, including McDavid. Basically half the roster. Roster change by sledgehammer.

CHIARELLI TO DO, 2016

  1. Top-pairing D to partner with Klefbom (his answer was Larsson)
  2. Second-pairing RHD to partner with Sekera (Kris Russell)
  3. Acquire RHC with some skill (Jesse Puljujarvi)
  4. Backup goalie (Jonas Gustavsson)
  5. Rob the Bruins of something (Matt Benning)

If you bring in nine players in one summer, one assumes it’s a quiet time the next year. There was a lot of change, including Taylor Hall being dealt to New Jersey. Chiarelli traded for Adam Larsson (the only major deal summer 2016) and signed Milan Lucic, Jonas Gustavsson, Mark Fraser, Kris Russell, Drake Caggiula and Matt Benning. Draft pick Jesse Puljujarvi brought the new hires summer 2016 to eight. That mean 16 (70 percent) turnover.

CHIARELLI TO DO, 2017

  1. Sign McDavid and Draisaitl. (Done)
  2. Survive the expansion draft.  (Reinhart was lost)
  3. Make sure there’s enough cap room. (Eberle out, Strome in)
  4. Find a second pairing D with two-way acumen (Kris Russell)
  5. Find a forward who can help the offense. (No answer)
  6. Offload Benoit Pouliot. (they bought him out)

As was the case in 2016, just one trade but it had an enormous impact. I didn’t think it was fatal, more of a ‘Bill Guerin for Anson Carter’ deal. Eberle had two years left on his deal and Ryan Strome is a RHC. You can see the thought process. Not so on the next Strome deal.

Aside from acquiring Strome, PC added Ty Rattie, Jussi Jokinen and Yohann Auvitu. Do you remember the free agents he allowed to walk? Tyler Pitlick, Jordan Oesterle. Both are productive NHL players with many years ahead of them. Oilers talent evaluation remained poor.

CHIARELLI TO DO, 2018

  1. Veteran scoring right winger. Alex Chiasson was the answer, with Zack Kassian also having an impact.
  2. Two-way left winger. Tobias Rieder was an astute addition, in my opinion. It didn’t work out, but it was a good bet.
  3. Puck mover. PC looked, settled on Evan Bouchard.
  4. No. 7 defender. Kevin Gravel was excellent until they stopped playing him.
  5. Backup goalie. Mikko Koskinen was a solid move.

No major deals, but some free agent signings. Rieder, Koskinen, Gravel, Kyle Brodziak, Jakub Jerabek and then (late) Alex Chiasson and Jason Garrison. I think this would have been a wise path in 2015, keeping all of the picks and spending McDavid’s rookie season auditioning July 15 free agents in prominent roles (Chiasson, Gravel, Rieder types).

Another free agent out: Laurent Brossoit. He’d be a useful piece about now.

MARK HUNTER TO DO, 2019

  • Two scoring wingers (Brett Connolly, Tyler Johnson)
  • Cap room (buyout or offload with retain)
  • No. 3 RH center (Riley Nash or internal solution Marody)
  • Top 4 RHD who can move the puck (Colin Miller)
  • Backup goalie (Thomas Greiss)

Peter Chiarelli didn’t get the job done but there are some things coming from the farm and that will help. Mark Hunter will arrive with very little knowledge of the difference between Caleb Jones, Ethan Bear and William Lagesson. I know many are angry at Craig MacTavish, Scott Howson and others, but these men could be key in how Hunter proceeds in the trade market.

I think Hunter will try to trade Puljujarvi, Benning, Khaira and buyout a contract in an effort to address needs and free up money for Connolly, et cetera.

I think he may decide to trade Larsson, the No. 8 overall pick and various picks ala Chiarelli in 2015 to get it done. No. 8 and No. 38 for Olli Juolevi? I kid.

TAKING STOCK

If I’m Hunter, I’m calling in Keith Gretzky, Craig MacTavish, Scott Howson and whomever else is left, and asking the following:

  1. If I have to trade Adam Larsson for a scoring winger, what is my best option for No. 1 RHD and don’t say ‘there isn’t one’.
  2. If I trade Dmitri Samorukov are people going to hate me in 2022?
  3. What is a Lagesson?
  4. If you believe Evan Bouchard is going to be a productive player, and that Joel Persson is ready, then trading Ethan Bear is a reasonable option, right?
  5. Who signed Mikko Koskinen for three years?
  6. How do you evaluate goalies?
  7. Name three left wingers on the 50-man roster who are capable of scoring 15+ goals next season, and you can’t count 97, 29 and 93.
  8. Name three left wingers on the roster better than Tyler Benson.
  9. Jesse Puljujarvi doesn’t have a lot of trade value. Is there a role the new coach can use him in that will benefit player and team? Is a season in Finland a preferable option to trading him now or losing him on waivers?
  10. Why did a building team trade so many picks in 2014 and 2015? Craig?
  11. How did the Oilers give up 62 goals while shorthanded?
  12. If Leon Draisaitl is the only main center over 50 percent (50.5), and Connor McDavid (46.6) and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (45.1), maybe we’re looking for centers instead of wingers? Righty centers who can play both?

I’ll tell you this Russian winger Podkolzin has me concerned. Most of the attention is on the Americans at the U18’s (Cole Caufield, Matt Boldy) but Podkolzin might be the biggest mover (down) after the U18’s.

I’m content with the NA rankings on the list, but Euros always have late fluctuation partly because it’s a scouting year with major tournaments as the guide. Here is my current top 12 and what I’m thinking about for my final list:

1 C Jack Hughes, U.S. National Development Team (USHL). I have him at the top and that won’t change on my final list. He’s the real thing.

2 R Kaapo Kakko, Turkku (Sm-Liiga). More than just a consolation prize, he’s a quality prospect who might be a plug and play for the right team. Flourished in the Sm-Liiga.

3 L Arthur Kaliyev, Hamilton (OHL). I’m comfortable with him here, but don’t want to be stubborn on it. His NHLE (40) includes 20 goals and that’s an exceptional number for a prospect his age in such a great league.

4 LD Bowen Byram, Vancouver (WHL). He’s easily the best defenseman in the draft, the question for me surrounds his impact. He isn’t Denis Potvin and he isn’t Scott Niedermeyer, but he has the entire package. I suspect I’ll rank him No. 3 on my final list.

5 RC Kirby Dach, Saskatoon (WHL). The rest of my top 10 is like spending a day shopping for stereo speakers (one day I’ll tell you about the Saturday I spent trying to decide between Bose and Altec Lansing): It’s shades of grey. I like Dach for his size, speed, skill and handedness. He’s a dynamic player.

6 LC Alex Turcotte, U.S. National Development Team (USHL). The worry for him was injury but he’s closed well and is clearly quality. If you read his scouting report, it’ll remind you of the Nuge. I might put him at No. 5 on the final list.

7 R Dylan Cozens, Lethbridge (WHL). I have him below Dach because he’s not quite a finished product. That can go either way, as there might be another gear, but Dach with the puck on his stick has more ways to hurt you in my opinion.

8 LC Peyton Krebs, Kootenay (WHL). I’ve moved him up recently, mostly because others have fallen. This is a quality talent, who could emerge as an outstanding complementary player on a line with 97 or 29. A little like Kaliyev in that his work seems to be discounted by some.

9 R Vasili Podkolzin, St. Petersburg (MHL). He’s the guy I worry about the most, there’s a disconnect between verbal and production. I think he must be very impressive on tape because the numbers aren’t there. If numbers is the third base coach, math isn’t waving him home inside my top 10.

10 LC Trevor Zegras, U.S. National Development Team (USHL). I have moved him down recently, mostly for fear about who is zooming who on that incredible US National Team. Absolutely worth a top-10 pick, not sure he should be the second USHL player on my list.

11 R Cole Caufield, U.S. National Development Team (USHL). He is scoring at will at the U18’s, and I expect he’ll land much higher than I have him. Small but with speed and smarts, his shot is money. He could land around No. 8 on my final list but NA’s rarely move up or down that much for me so we’ll see.

12 L Matthew Boldy, U.S. National Development Team (USHL). I actually have him at No. 13 but Mitch Brown has me re-thinking Phillip Broberg. Along with Hughes, Caufield and Turcotte, Boldy is rocking the U18’s with nine points in three games. Likely getting zoomed a little but very talented. Power forward skills, very good passer.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260. We have a mountain of things to cover, beginning with Murat Ates of The Athletic Winnipeg. Jets fell to the Blues, not sure there was a damned thing they could do about the result.

I’ll have J.D. Burke from TSN1040 Vancouver and The Athletic Vancouver on to talk about an exciting new project with Elite Prospects. His Top 93 for 2019 is original, brilliant and a must read.

Jason Gregor will join me at 11:05 to talk Mark Hunter and other possible GM candidates, plus Oil Kings. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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Kinger_Oil.redux

“But to say that Lowe and MacTavish were not exactly on the same page as Nicholson when it comes to hockey matters would not be a stretch. When Nicholson was hired by Katz a year ago, he came to the Oilers expecting to have more say over hockey matters, but was apparently overruled by Lowe. ”

– ““I support Bob in the changes he has implemented and I am very excited about the bright future for the Edmonton Oilers, the City of Edmonton and Oilers fans everywhere,” said Lowe”

““My to-do list is pretty big right now,” Chiarelli said at his introductory news conference.”

“While Chiarelli ended the Oilers’ 10-year absence from the playoffs and drafted generational talent Connor McDavid, arguably the game’s best player after three seasons, he also has made several moves – such as trading Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle and signing Milan Lucic – that haven’t reaped rewards.”

“Chiarelli assembled a roster that skated to its first 100-point campaign since 1986-87, earned a berth in the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the first time since 2005-06 and posted a League-leading 33-point improvement over 2015-16. Chiarelli acquired defensemen Adam Larsson (trade) and Kris Russell (free agent) during the offseason, bolstering a blue line that helped the Oilers cut their goals-against total (excluding shootouts) to 207, their fewest over an 82-game season since 2001-02. The first-time NHL Awards finalist also added veteran forwards Milan Lucic (offseason free agent) and David Desharnais (trade deadline) to complement homegrown stars Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Jordan Eberle and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.”

““I want to thank Kevin, Patrick and Craig for their commitment and contributions to the Oilers over the past many years,” said Katz. “No one should question the heart, integrity, dedication or capability of any of these individuals.”

“I’m the person who hired Peter Chiarelli. When we hired Peter Chiarelli and when we hired Todd McLellan we thought we were getting a top general manager and a top coach. It didn’t work out in this situation. We’re going to go back. This time, we’re going to interview a lot of people.”

Reja

Have you heard if Bouchard is in the lineup yet?

OriginalPouzar

Pretty excited for the Condors game tonight – Missed all but the 1st period of game 2 while overseas.

With home ice and coming off a loss, will Bouchard get inserted in to the lineup? I’m hoping but am not expecting. I saw that Stanton was interview meaning he’s playing. Day is the only other option to come out (and the likely option) and he’s been a key part of the PP and offence all season and was a startin game 1.

Also hopeful that Yamamoto is healthy enough to play but, again, not expecting it. Last I heard from Woodcroft last week was “day to day” but didn’t really sound like he was all that close.

jp

oilersfan:
How can I find the wowy for players? Corsi, plus minus , goals for etc?

Did Lucic ruin Strome for the oilers ? And single handedly ruin JP’’s nhl experience to date?

At least one source is Natural Stat Trick (http://www.naturalstattrick.com/).

Go to Players. More filters to select the team etc. Click on the player you want then go to the pull down menu that says Player Summary and select Teammates instead.

As for Lucic ruining Puljujarvi, quite the opposite. For his career, every one of JP’s metrics is better with Lucic than without (biggest gap is GF% which is 53.5% with Lucic and 41.9% without Lucic). He has also scored marginally more with Lucic than without, though it’s close (1.16 vs 1.14 P/60).

Strome was better with Lucic in every metric too except GF%, likely due to their 979 PDO together. Their xGF was 56.7%. P/60 was 1.20 with Lucic and 1.27 without.

I almost feel like I’m defending Lucic here, but he was absolutely not the source of their failures.

ArmchairGM

Lowetide:
For The Athletic: Adam Larsson’s importance to the Oilers and why trading him is a bad idea

https://theathletic.com/938531/2019/04/23/lowetide-adam-larssons-importance-to-the-oilers-and-why-trading-him-is-a-bad-idea/

What do you think of Filip Berglund being a potential replacement for Larsson 2 years down the road? Or is that a pipedream? Do you see anyone else in the system that could potentially play the heavy defensive minutes Larsson does?

ArmchairGM

oilersfan:
How can I find the wowy for players? Corsi, plus minus , goals for etc?

Did Lucic ruin Strome for the oilers ? Andsingle handedly ruin JP’’s nhl experience to date?

I use naturalstattrick.com frequently. You can use the Players > Line Tool or Players > On Ice, select player name, then from the player summary page select Teammates and click Submit. You can play around with other filters such as game state (5v5, 5v4, etc) and rates (g/60, p/60, etc) as well.

ArmchairGM

Munny:
ArmchairGM,

Thank you for your reply.I apologize if you feel my post was aimed at you.It wasn’t.I go through this usage every year.I don’t typically beat a drum daily like Godot or OP or many others, but every Spring I do rail against the consensus on consensus, when the spirit moves me.

I agree that the word is misused frequently – especially in relation to the draft – so I have no problem with you pointing it out. I don’t feel it changes my point though: McKenzie’s list is consistently the most accurate predictor of actual draft position, although all it takes is 1 team to throw the whole thing off by 1 or 2 spots… which is what we need to happen. If Turcotte is likely to go 7th, we just need 1 team ahead of us to go “off the board” (misnomer because there is no consensus) with their selection and we’re golden. It happens every year.

I guess I could sum up my ramblings thus: just because I have Turcotte 3rd on my board doesn’t mean he won’t be available at #8.

OriginalPouzar

At this point, I think its a large stretch to think about Berglund in the Oilers top 4 any time in the next few years. He very well may never play an NHL game or even sign an NHL contract.

ArmchairGM

Scungilli Slushy: Bouchard will be pushing next season and will have a learningcurve. Who they need to be looking at replacing is Larsson.

All of the RHD prospects are offensive D. They have Lagesson LD who has a rounded game. I’m not sure about Jones other than he has NHL chops.

The GM needs to find balance in the prospect pool to replace current players. If one side is offensive the other needs defensive awareness as a priority. Everyone needs to be able to skate and pass at a minimum. They need to be able to make balanced pairs.

It’s not a problem it’s an opportunity. Finally.

Could Filip Berglund be a Larsson replacement? He didn’t take the step forward this season that was expected – LT’s ‘prospects don’t develop in straight lines’ is ringing in my ears – but I understand that he’s a great 2-way defenseman with excellent positioning, mobility and gap control.

Maybe @SwedishPoster could comment?

OriginalPouzar

Reja: Ryan Reaves is well worth the money for a team taking a cup run. The sales pitch on Russell was really weak the only way we dump himfor nothing is at next next years trade deadline. I hope I’m wrong but we need D that can get it up ice quick

Almost 3 million for multiple years for a 4th liner who plays zero on the PK on a team that is going to be in a huge cap issue in a few weeks is well worth it? If that is true, it goes to show that GMs are willing to overpay for certain attributes which is exactly why some think Russell can be disposed of clean in the off-season.

OriginalPouzar

Condors play their first ever home playoff game tonight and I’m jazzed to tune in.

We essentially knew that Bouchard wasn’t going to play in the first few games but, with the team losing last game and this one being at home, I could see him possibly being in the lineup tonight. It would likely be Day that would come out, the first star of game 1 (yup, the defence is tough to crack).

Woodcroft and Manson could very well keep status quo as well.

godot10

Pescador: Watching Rocco Grimaldi having playoff success with Nashville is giving further reason to believe in Yamamoto,
For those who don’t

Rocco Grimaldi is on his 3rd NHL organization. He didn’t see an NHL game till his draft+3 season. He didn’t play more than a quarter of an NHL season till his draft+7 season. He was allowed to stay in college for 3 more years, and then played mostly four more years in the NHL till becoming a tweener who topped out this season with 5 goals and 13 points in 53 games.

Pescador

Scungilli Slushy: You see them as similar?

I do,
Not just the similar stature
but the tenacity that those types of players have to have.
Neither is afraid of the difficult areas or the puck battles that are found there.
Yamamoto might have better scoring ability, he just needs to get his man strength. It will come

Scungilli Slushy

Bling:
LT: I would be comfortable moving Bear.

IMO, he doesn’t have the mobility or size to handle the toughs at evens in the NHL in a top 4 role.

You’re then left with a bottom pairing PP specialist, a role where Persson and/or Bouchard could conceivably outperform him. Not to mention that Nurse and Klefbom will also be vying for special teams ice time.

Bouchard makes every RD expendable in the system because they are all the same type of player with less size and skill than he has.

Bear especially, Marino, Day, etc aren’t going to pass him. Bouchard will not likely be a solid top 4 soon.

I expect Bouchard to be in the NHL by year end, I agree he should have to push up from the A.

The question is who backs up Larsson properly?

Glovjuice

Mammoth tusks from the Russian permafrost. This is Ovi.

Bling

LT: I would be comfortable moving Bear.

IMO, he doesn’t have the mobility or size to handle the toughs at evens in the NHL in a top 4 role.

You’re then left with a bottom pairing PP specialist, a role where Persson and/or Bouchard could conceivably outperform him. Not to mention that Nurse and Klefbom will also be vying for special teams ice time.

Scungilli Slushy

Pescador: Watching Rocco Grimaldi having playoff success with Nashville is giving further reason to believe in Yamamoto,
For those who don’t

You see them as similar?

Scungilli Slushy

Munny: en masse

Always!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Sometimes

Reja

Great games hockey is at its best when the refs let them play.

Pescador

OriginalPouzar: Oh, yes, he definitely needs to start next year on the Condors and get a damn good stretch of games – something he hasn’t been able to get this year with the injuries.Hopefully he is able to get back in the lineup soon and join the Condors for their playoff run.

No matter what Yamamoto does at camp and in exhibition next year, we know it means absolutely nothing with respect to NHL readiness.

AHL for Kailer, and that is just fine – lets develop this player like a 22nd overall pick should be and not put top 10 pick expectations/timelines on him (and the org).

Watching Rocco Grimaldi having playoff success with Nashville is giving further reason to believe in Yamamoto,
For those who don’t

Reja

OriginalPouzar: GMs sign players like Troy Brower to 4 X $4.5M and Ryan Reaves to 2 X $2.775M – these are GMs that have built very good teams (one one the cup last year and the other finished 1st in the West this year).

There are certain attributes that GMs still value notwithstanding numbers – Russell’s value is likely the highest coming off the playoffs and the type of hockey that wins.

Ryan Reaves is well worth the money for a team taking a cup run. The sales pitch on Russell was really weak the only way we dump him for nothing is at next next years trade deadline. I hope I’m wrong but we need D that can get it up ice quick

oilersfan

How can I find the wowy for players? Corsi, plus minus , goals for etc?

Did Lucic ruin Strome for the oilers ? And single handedly ruin JP’’s nhl experience to date?

Reja

Munny:
Reja,

The closest comp to OV is Mr. Hockey himself, the original Hockey Gord.

He’s gaining on Crosby quickly

YKOil

If Carolina wins that series I take special care to pay attention to Washington’s demeanor.

I remain on the Jensen bandwagon and if Washington decides they really want to mix it up I look to snag him out of there.

YKOil

I like Connolly in the 2.75×4 to 3.15×3 range.

Any less and you got a deal.

Any more and you are better off letting someone else sign him and then taking a good hard look at the pay details to see if you can scoop him when they get mad at how much he makes vs. production. You can also look at fobbing off a bad contract or getting them to retain some salary or, even, get him coming off a buy-out.

Munny

An awful penalty to call with two left.

Munny

Scungilli Slushy,

En masse is ridiculous.

Usually it’s the goalie’s fault.

🙂

Munny

Dallas is doing everything they can to not go to OT.

Scungilli Slushy

Blaming players en masse is the weak out of a weak org.

Yes some players are failing out, but when teams fail out that isn’t it.

Munny

Speaking of The Search… Hunter worries me.

I think it’s failing to beat out Dubas for the Toronto job.

What did they see to give the younger less-experienced guy the reins?

Is he smart enough? Forward-looking enough? Innovative, finding edges?

Can he build an NHL team?….a different story than building a Jr. team. The CHL has pronounced success cycles, far less team depth than the Bigs, and you’re only thinking about a draftee’s next few years, not his next ten. And the horse-trading is completely different.

There’s going to be questions about whoever “wins” the job, I guess. But I would prefer TLBOH or MacCrimmon.

And yet, not one of Tampa, Toronto or Vegas can say this particular iteration of their respective organisations has had the ultimate success.

Scungilli Slushy

Obsessing about one player or contract is OBC.

Every team has a bad contract or under performing player, or both, or more.

The key is about icing a good team that isn’t capped out. Unless it is already set.

Other wise leave cap space for jumping on value buys.

Liquidating cap space based on what is coming up from the farm and low end signings, etc etc, is key.

Whether it’s Luc, Sekera, Russell, Gagner, Manning, Koskinen, doesn’t matter if the replacement is there. Basically what a capable GM would do.

And remember Lucic’s possession numbers are helpful. A new coach might get some offense from him and everyone else that suddenly couldn’t score and cratered in confidence.

Which is very unusual and should be strongly considered hiring a new coach. Really.

See NYI.

Munny

Alpine: I’d look at using picks to move Lucic.

I sometimes feel like the search for the GM who will take Lucic in a trade is as important as the search for the GM whose job it will be to make the trade.

Munny

ArmchairGM,

Thank you for your reply. I apologize if you feel my post was aimed at you. It wasn’t. I go through this usage every year. I don’t typically beat a drum daily like Godot or OP or many others, but every Spring I do rail against the consensus on consensus, when the spirit moves me.

dessert1111

Pescador: Yamamoto needs to return to the Condors at the start of next season even if there are no additional forwards added in the offseason.
As it stands today, Kassian is the best option for 1RW.
Also, when Yamamoto is promoted to the NHL don’t you think it would be better to start him at 3RW?

Aside from Draisalt you could pretty much move those wingers up and down the line up. They should all be on the 3/4 line.

My point is though that there are a lot of gaps and they aren’t going to be able to find sure fire things for all those spots without some astute moves.

Alpine

slopitch,

I just don’t want to trade Jones as a sweetener. Bear, sure. And even then I’d hope to get a useful player back.

I’d look at using picks to move Lucic. Our 2019/2020 2nd/3rd rounders won’t help for a few years anyways.

Munny

Reja,

The closest comp to OV is Mr. Hockey himself, the original Hockey Gord.

Reja

Munny:
That disallowed goal might cost the Caps the series.

Plus the wonder that is Williams.

Have to love the passion by Ovechkin I would not bet against him that man is on a mission.

Wilde

Georgexs:
3. What is a Lagesson?

No idea, Dad. What IS a Lages?

It was competitive, but this one was the worst.

Munny

That disallowed goal might cost the Caps the series.

Plus the wonder that is Williams.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Yeah I really like Connolly but I would absolutely not sign him for more than 3×3.

I would prefer the Oilers to identify the next ‘Connolly’ and sign him for league minimum.

The Oilers cannot afford to overpay in free agency again.

OriginalPouzar

Guelph takes game 3!

JimmyV1965

Georgexs: I’m not saying you’re wrong, LT. I’m saying the odds are against you being right. And so the wager, if the team chooses to make a wager at all, should reflect the odds. I chose a peer group for Connolly based on his age, his draft pedigree, and his career scoring rate. No one became a consistent scorer. Foligno was the best of the lot, but he only broke 40 points with CBJ twice (73, 51) in his seven seasons with the team.

It’s easy to find numbers to support these outside picks. Someone must have seen Pouliot’s P60 in the seasons before he joined the Oil:

10-11 2.01
11-12 2.08
12-13 2.51
13-14 1.80

And convinced themselves they were getting a hidden first line forward.

I think Pouliot’s signing and career with us is instructive. Never reached another level. On a short leash. Very little patience from the team to wait for growth from a mid-to-late-20’s player. Withered under a different regime.

Connolly would have to hit right away and always to cement his status as a top-6 player on our team, which is very unlikely as I’ve shown above with his peers. He currently has a margin for error in WSH. He’s a depth player. Expectations are low and he’s exceeded them by a mile. Not the same situation here at all. No margin for error for a 27-year old getting paid big $ at a lengthy term, playing regular top 6 minutes for the first time in his career, for a team that’s missed the playoffs for the past two seasons, a team with a new HC and GM, in a CRAZY MAD hockey market.

No margin for error at all.

Great post. Signing Connolly for term and money is setting him up for failure. Even at $4 mill the expectation is that he plays top 6, which he has never really done. If he’s signed for $3 mill the expectations change. As a general rule though, the only third liner who should be paid $3 mill + is the centre.

Scungilli Slushy

OriginalPouzar: If acquiring speed and mobility is a primary objective, this wouldn’t be the case.

Given Bouchard, Persson, Bear and Jones all potentially able to play RD in the NHL very soon, I am fine with trading one of the last 3 if the return is right and the return would likely need to be a very similar level forward – a solid NHL-bet forward that has performed very well in the AHL and looks to be on the verge of NHL readiness.Jones would require a higher level prospect back than Bear.

One of the three (and throw Lagesson in there) could also be used as a sweetener in a bigger deal but some solid value would need to be allocated – not just a throw in because of new found depth.

Bouchard and Samorukov are higher level prospects.

Bouchard will be pushing next season and will have a learning curve. Who they need to be looking at replacing is Larsson.

All of the RHD prospects are offensive D. They have Lagesson LD who has a rounded game. I’m not sure about Jones other than he has NHL chops.

The GM needs to find balance in the prospect pool to replace current players. If one side is offensive the other needs defensive awareness as a priority. Everyone needs to be able to skate and pass at a minimum. They need to be able to make balanced pairs.

It’s not a problem it’s an opportunity. Finally.

OriginalPouzar

Pescador: Yamamoto needs to return to the Condors at the start of next season even if there are no additional forwards added in the offseason.
As it stands today, Kassian is the best option for 1RW.
Also, when Yamamoto is promoted to the NHL don’t you think it would be better to start him at 3RW?

Oh, yes, he definitely needs to start next year on the Condors and get a damn good stretch of games – something he hasn’t been able to get this year with the injuries. Hopefully he is able to get back in the lineup soon and join the Condors for their playoff run.

No matter what Yamamoto does at camp and in exhibition next year, we know it means absolutely nothing with respect to NHL readiness.

AHL for Kailer, and that is just fine – lets develop this player like a 22nd overall pick should be and not put top 10 pick expectations/timelines on him (and the org).

OriginalPouzar

Samorukov with a primary PP assist on an insurance goal with apx 10 min left as Guelph is looking to get back in the series with Saginaw!

Ice Sage

jtblack:
Ok, Great Post. Hoppy Easter Monday!

“Why did a building team trade so many picks in 2014 and 2015? Craig?”

Edmonton has limited depth right now because off this.Thankfully all 2016 /:2017 / 2018 picks were made amd the depth will start arrving this fall.

LT : BYRAM comparable: Morgan Reilly.I think his game is similiar at both ends of the ice and overall (skating, size, O , D)

Apparently Peyton Krebs is highly dedicated to fitness and off ice training.(source is ex teammate / leaguemate)

I think he would be a Great Add.

Byram’s a couple inches shorter and 30 lbs lighter than Rielly and doesn’t (need to) play as physical a game. Having watched a lot of WHL over the years, Matt Dumba is the better comp. He won’t be available at #8, that’s certain. Krebs might not be either, which is too bad.

OriginalPouzar

Reja: I like Russell he’s heart and soul but he is a stop gap 4-5 for parts of the season. Ask any of your buddies that cheer for different teams if they would like free of charge no questions asked Russell as your number 4-5 as you put it full time for 4 mil for the next two years I think other fan bases are pretty close and knowledgeable what Russell worth is.

GMs sign players like Troy Brower to 4 X $4.5M and Ryan Reaves to 2 X $2.775M – these are GMs that have built very good teams (one one the cup last year and the other finished 1st in the West this year).

There are certain attributes that GMs still value notwithstanding numbers – Russell’s value is likely the highest coming off the playoffs and the type of hockey that wins.

OriginalPouzar

Mr DeBakey:
If you believe Evan Bouchard is going to be a productive player, and that Joel Persson is ready, then trading Ethan Bear is a reasonable option, right?

Close!– trading Joel Persson is the most reasonable option.

If acquiring speed and mobility is a primary objective, this wouldn’t be the case.

Given Bouchard, Persson, Bear and Jones all potentially able to play RD in the NHL very soon, I am fine with trading one of the last 3 if the return is right and the return would likely need to be a very similar level forward – a solid NHL-bet forward that has performed very well in the AHL and looks to be on the verge of NHL readiness. Jones would require a higher level prospect back than Bear.

One of the three (and throw Lagesson in there) could also be used as a sweetener in a bigger deal but some solid value would need to be allocated – not just a throw in because of new found depth.

Bouchard and Samorukov are higher level prospects.

Pescador

dessert1111:
Not using any UFAs, best currently available…

Draisalt, McDavid, Yamamoto
Khaira, RNH, Gagner
Benson, Marody, Puljujarvi
Lucic, Cave, Kassian
Brodziak, Currie

Half those guys are question marks in those roles.

I’m hoping for at least 3 forwards for, at the very least, competition. Realistically without being creative with money out I don’t know they can add more than one guy that isn’t also somewhat of a question mark.

Yamamoto needs to return to the Condors at the start of next season even if there are no additional forwards added in the offseason.
As it stands today, Kassian is the best option for 1RW.
Also, when Yamamoto is promoted to the NHL don’t you think it would be better to start him at 3RW?