Grimes’ Go

What is your all-time No. 1 draft by a single team, single season? Mine is 1979, Edmonton Oilers. The team drafted a franchise center (Mark Messier) a 500-goal (Oh sorry, 498) winger and a stellar defender in Kevin Lowe. If we can agree that hockey teams have 12 vital positions (top line, second line, third line center, top two pairings, plus starting goalie), that’s 25 percent of a championship team in one draft. The kicker? Barry Fraser made it an even 50 percent in 1980 by drafting Jari Kurri, Paul Coffey and Andy Moog. The last time Edmonton drafted three players who could reasonably fill three roles was 2011, the year of Nuge, Oscar and Tobias Rieder. Can this Oilers team have a draft that delivers three future players of high quality?

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group.INSANE NEW OFFER IS HERE!

  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: A dogged realist, Kelly McCrimmon’s resume makes him an attractive candidate for the Oilers GM job
  • New Lowetide: Is this the season the Oilers take the plunge and draft a USHL player in the first round?
  • Jonathan Willis: Top Oilers prospect Evan Bouchard stars in his first AHL game as Condors dominate.
  • Lowetide: Adam Larsson’s importance to the Oilers and why trading him is a bad idea.
  • Lowetide: Tyler Benson’s comparables offer Oilers fans plenty of hope for the future.
  • Lowetide: Making the call on the Oilers’ RFAs with a new general manager on the way.
  • Lowetide: Red Wings front office shuffle could impact Oilers’ future.
  • Jonathan Willis: Potential coaching candidates and why the Oilers don’t need to rush the GM search to get one
  • Lowetide: What would Glen Sather do with these Oilers?
  • Jonathan Willis: Some creative solutions to address the Oilers’ goalie problem
  • Lowetide: The Milan Lucic saga rolls into Year 4 for Oilers with no easy answers
  • Jonathan Willis: Who stays and who goes? An early projection of which players will remain on the Oilers’ roster in 2019-20
  • LowetideHow high can these Condors fly?
  • Lowetide: The Oilers possible summer trade pieces, and which longtime players might be saying goodbye.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ten prospects likely to be available when the Oilers make their first-round pick.

KEITH GRETZKY’S BEST DRAFT (2014)

No. 25 overall R David Pastrnak. Red Line Report had him No. 14 (“small but fiery and passionate, loves to score) and he played 46 NHL games in his draft +1 season. Has scored 34, 35 and 38 goals in the last three seasons, one of the best young scorers in the game. Note: KG went undersized and skilled in round one, something he repeated with Kailer Yamamoto in 2017 and may do again with Caufield this summer.

No. 45 overall C Ryan Donato. Red Line had him No. 65 (compared him to Sam Gagner) and remarked about his soft hands and impressive passing. He arrived as an NHL regular in 2018-19 (draft +5) posting 56, 10-15-25. Fine value so far for a second-round pick, he was dealt in the Charlie Coyle deal.

No. 116 overall LC Danton Heinen. Not ranked by Red Line, he was the third skill selection in a row. He is an established (if somewhat inconsistent) NHL player).

No. 146 overall L Anders Bjork. Red Line had him at No. 178, saying he had the skating and work ethic to be a checker. With the team’s fourth selection, in the fifth round, they take a player who doesn’t possess top 6F skill. He has shown well in the AHL and has played 50 NHL games.

No. 206 overall LD Emil Johansson. Swedish blue ranked No. 267 overall by Red Line, Good skater, moved the puck well and he made it to the AHL by age 21.

GRETZKY’S COMMENTS ON 2014 DRAFT

Gretzky: “The plan was we wanted some skill. Everybody wanted skill. You could see the picks, that were highly skilled guys. More of the ‘plumbers’ were coming later on and we were excited that we could get Donato and Heinen who are two really skilled players. We’re excited.”

2019 PICK NO. 8

It makes sense to assume Edmonton will be looking for skill at this year’s draft. The first-round pick is going to have at least two impressive players available by my estimate. If the top seven go in a specific way Edmonton will be able to choose from an impressive group of skill forwards. Here is my projected top seven:

  1. New Jersey Devils: C Jack Hughes, U.S. National Development Team (USHL).
  2. New York Rangers: R Kaapo Kakko, Turkku (Sm-Liiga).
  3. Chicago Blackhawks: LD Bowen Byram, Vancouver (WHL).
  4. Colorado Avalanche: LC Alex Turcotte, U.S. National Development Team (USHL).
  5. Los Angeles Kings: RC Kirby Dach, Saskatoon (WHL).
  6. Detroit Red Wings: LC Trevor Zegras, U.S. National Development Team (USHL)
  7. Buffalo Sabres: R Cole Caufield, U.S. National Development Team (USHL)

If we can agree the goal is three skilled men like Pastrnak, Donato and Heinen, picking from the available group should give Edmonton one strong solution. If it breaks down in the way described, I think the Oilers take Dylan Cozens over Matthew Boldy and the Russian Vasili Podkolzin. Cozens has skill, speed and size, scored 34 goals and averaged 3.3 shots per game. A righty, he’ll be a nice fit should he fall to Edmonton.

2019 PICK NO. 38

There will be some nice skill players at this number, my favourite is Blake Murray of Sudbury. He’s 6.03, 185, a July 2001, scored 30 goals in the world’s best junior league and his scouting report talks about good speed. That’s a fabulous player if he is still available.

Samuel Fagemo is an overager who played in the SHL in 2018-19 (42, 14-11-25, averaging 13:56 a night. He is a March 2000 and his top skill is a great shot (quick release).

Nathan Légaré is a scoring winger. He isn’t a finesse player per se, but goes to scoring areas and can cash with impressive consistency. Great shot, quick release. He scored 45 goals on 271 shots, and is a January 2001.

2019 PICK NO. 88

Matias Maccelli plays for Dubque of the USHL. He scored 31 goals on 189 shots this year, and is a terrific passer with good anticipation. He’s an October 2000 and is trending well (CSB No. 51, from No. 83 in mid-season).

Alex Beaucage is a scoring winger for Rouyn-Noranda of the QMJHL. He scored 39 goals in 68 games this past season, he is an excellent passer who can also finish. Excellent wrister.

Ethan Keppen plays for Flint Firebirds of the OHL, that’s a tough place to play. He delivered 30 goals in 68 games this season, on a team that scored just 212. Good speed and size (6.02, 214).

SUMMARY

If Edmonton walks away with Dylan Cozens, Blake Murray and Alex Beaucage, it may not rise to “Pastrnak Donato Heinen” levels but math suggests all three are excellent bets.

Dylan Cozens (Lethbridge, WHL) 68, 34-50-84 (NHLE: 30.6)

Blake Murray (Sudbury, OHL) 66, 30-20-50 (NHLE: 20.1)

Alex Beaucage (Rouyn-Noranda, QMJHL) 68, 39-40-79 (NHLE: 27.1)

You may ask “how do these numbers rank against recent Oilers history?” and the answer would be lower than you imagine. Part of the reason is Edmonton has been drafting high since 2010, and part of it is that Keith Gretzky drafted Kailer Yamamoto at No. 22 in 2017. Here’s a selection group of draft day NHLE’s over the last few years, with the current group thrown in.

  1. Connor McDavid 25-43-68
  2. Taylor Hall 19-30-49
  3. Nail Yakupov 20-24-44
  4. Leon Draisaitl 15-26-41
  5. Kailer Yamamoto 17-21-38
  6. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 11-27-38
  7. Evan Bouchard 10-24-34
  8. Tyler Benson 8-24-32
  9. Dylan Cozens 12-19-31
  10. Jordan Eberle 15-12-27
  11. Alex Beaucage 13-14-27
  12. Ryan McLeod 10-17-27
  13. Jesse Puljujarvi 10-11-21
  14. Blake Murray 12-8-20

If Gretzky and company can deliver three talented forwards at this year’s draft, the club can begin to compile the kind of depth currently enjoyed among the defensive prospects. None of the players chosen will be the Oilers’ No. 1 prospect the day after the draft (Evan Bouchard) but Edmonton badly needs more skill forwards to add to the group that includes Yamamoto and Benson.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, we kickstart the weekend with a fabulous show. TSN1260, at 10:20 Steve Lansky talks about Canadian teams getting flattened in the first round of the NHL playoffs and why hate watching is wrong. He’ll be followed by Andy McNamara from TSN4Downs. We’ll chat NFL Draft (very pleased with the Eagles pick) and what the Giants did last night. Matt Iwanyk from TSN1260 will be live at 11, we’ll talk about the Oilers GM situation, the NFL draft and the CFL labor negotiations. At 11:20, Kaitlin McGrath from The Athletic previews Vladdy Guerrero’s MLB debut. See you soon!

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195 Responses to "Grimes’ Go"

  1. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    The last time Edmonton drafted three players who could reasonably fill three roles was 2011, the year of Nuge, Oscar and Tobias Rieder. Can this Oilers team have a draft that delivers three future players of high quality?

    “With the first pick in the 2015 NHL Draft, Edmonton is thrilled to select Connor McDavid”

    “With the 16th pick in the 2015 NHL Draft Edmonton is gobsmacked that this guy is still on board and are very happy to select Matthew Barzal”

    “With the 33rd pick in the 2015 NHL Draft Edmonton is proud to select Brando Carlo”

    That would have eclipsed 1979.

    Man.

    Also,

    Ymmv on Carlo, but there were lots of quality players on the board.

    If EDM takes 2 centers with 1 and 16 then 33 is probably a D, Carlo is RH and He Who Destroyed Value was cognizant about Righty/Lefty and the Righty deficit in the pipe.

  2. Lowetide says:

    WG: That 2015 draft could have set up the team for a decade, and if skill had been the priority oh my GOD would this team have cleaned up. When teams say BPA, they mean their definition. Draft skill. Always. That’s why I was encouraged by the Yamamoto and Bouchard picks, hopefully the organization continues the trend.

  3. ArmchairGM says:

    Your opening paragraph just makes me think about what 2015 could have been.

    1. McDavid
    16. Barzal / Connor / Chabot
    33. Dermott / Aho / Carlo
    57+79+184. Talbot
    117. Jones
    124. Bear

    Could have rivaled the ’79 and ’80 drafts, no question.

  4. Jethro Tull says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    You would have trusted these bozos to have developed Barzal and Carlo properly?

    We would have been talking about trading Barzal now and Carlo would have learnt how to D the Kris Russell way.

    Wheels within wheels.

  5. 36 percent body fat says:

    I actually think we need skilled lefties, but imagine this as a draft

    round 1- unless byram is there one of the skilled forwards
    round 2- brayden tracey 66 36 45 81 how is he not ranked higher, the math LT the Math
    round 3- Fagemo
    round 4- highest ranked or highest NHLE D, preferably left
    round 5- highest ranked player on board or highest NHLE
    round 6- highest ranked player on board or highest NHLE
    round 7- see round 6

    also start culling useless prospects. Cairns, neimelainen, brindamour etc. See if you can get 7ths for any of them, and draft skilled guys. Look for guys like Fagemo who for some weird reason or not getting drafted.

  6. Lowetide says:

    36 %: I have Tracey at No. 45 on my latest list, he’ll probably be around when Edmonton picks in the second round. He would be an outstanding choice.

  7. Jethro Tull says:

    Lowetide:
    WG: That 2015 draft could have set up the team for a decade, and if skill had been the priority oh my GOD would this team have cleaned up. When teams say BPA, they mean their definition. Draft skill. Always. That’s why I was encouraged by the Yamamoto and Bouchard picks, hopefully the organization continues the trend.

    Picking first OV and damn near 1st for 10yrs should have set the team up for a decade. Yet here we are, having the same conversations and reminiscing about great bands and better whisky, our only consolations.

    And McDavid.

  8. ArmchairGM says:

    Woodguy v2.0: If EDM takes 2 centers with 1 and 16 then 33 is probably a D, Carlo is RH and He Who Destroyed Value was cognizant about Righty/Lefty and the Righty deficit in the pipe.

    Was he though? Was that why he went out and traded for Reinhart? I always wondered…

    In hindsight Chabot + Aho would likely be the best choice with these picks, despite the L/R thing you mentioned. Or Barzal + Aho… defense? Who needs defense?

  9. jtblack says:

    “Ethan Keppen plays for Flint Firebirds of the OHL, that’s a tough place to play. He delivered 30 goals in 68 games this season, on a team that scored just 212. Good speed and size (6.02, 214).”

    This guys seems very interesting?

    never heard of him or seen him play. Did a little digging. He’s a true 17 yr old.

    started the year slow. Finished last 43 Games with 25 G 26 A for 51 points. You say he’s got good size.

    This seems like a pick with Good Potential.

  10. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    The last time Edmonton drafted three players who could reasonably fill three roles was 2011, the year of Nuge, Oscar and Tobias Rieder. Can this Oilers team have a draft that delivers three future players of high quality?

    “With the first pick in the 2015 NHL Draft, Edmonton is thrilled to select Connor McDavid”

    “With the 16th pick in the 2015 NHL Draft Edmonton is gobsmacked that this guy is still on board and are very happy to select Matthew Barzal”

    “With the 33rd pick in the 2015 NHL Draft Edmonton is proud to select Brando Carlo”

    That would have eclipsed 1979.

    Man.

    Also,

    Ymmv on Carlo, but there were lots of quality players on the board.

    If EDM takes 2 centers with 1 and 16 then 33 is probably a D, Carlo is RH and He Who Destroyed Value was cognizant about Righty/Lefty and the Righty deficit in the pipe.

    This makes me cry …. time and time again ….

    2015 was also considered a DEEP draft at the Top end — lots of talent avail beyond round 1 ….

    if only PC had been a bit more patient …

    This is also, exactly why we Keep our picks this year and grab skill .!!!!!!!!!!!

  11. Melman says:

    Jethro Tull,

    This is sadly a very valid point. This franchise’s track record of ruining players through terrible development is equal in priority to drafting skill and not trading away draft picks like they are Pokeman cards.

  12. dustrock says:

    Maccelli is a great late choice LT. Think he could be a hidden gem.

    And yeah Tracey has been impressive.

  13. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    ArmchairGM: Was he though? Was that why he went out and traded for Reinhart? I always wondered…

    In hindsight Chabot + Aho would likely be the best choice with these picks, despite the L/R thing you mentioned. Or Barzal + Aho… defense? Who needs defense?

    The LHD depth chart when he made the trade was:

    Klefbom
    Ferernce
    Marincin
    Nikitan

    The RHD depth chart was:
    Schultz
    Fayne

    Maybe you’re right.

    Dermott was still there at 33 as well.

  14. Jaxon says:

    Competitor for best 3 draft years / offseasons: Jeff Gorton as Assistant GM (O’Connell has stated that Gorton was a major influence on who they drafted during that period) in 2004 and 2005: Bergeron at #45, Krecji at #63, Versteeg at #134 (Chiarelli later traded Versteeg and a cond. pick to Chicago for Brandon Bochenski before Versteeg played 1 NHL game). Gorton also signed Tim Thomas as a 28 year old (O’Connell has stated this was Gorton’s find). Then as Interim GM after O’Connell was fired and before Chiarelli was hired in 2006, he drafted Kessel at #5, Lucic at #50, and Marchand at #71. On draft day he also traded Raycroft to Toronto for Rask. Then on July 1, he signed Chara and Savard. Then Chiarelli took over on July 15th. I wish Gorton was available as a GM candidate for Edmonton.

    Sather hired him and he fleeced Chiarelli on the Spooner/Strome trade. Gorton has since started a NYR rebuild on the fly with 13 top 70 picks in the past 3 drafts and he seems to lean on stats and analytics picking players like Kravtsov, Chytil, Lias Anderson, K’andre Miller, Lindkvist and Jacob Ragnarsson. He has also picked a few top goalie prospects (Olof Lindbom last year). This year he gets Kakko at #2, probably followed by one of Seider, Brink, Caufield, Lavoie or McMichael at #22 and maybe Pelletier at #37, Beaucage at #49, Goalie Guzda at #62 and maybe Nick Robertson at #68. Add that to their fairly young team, and in a couple of years, the Rangers will be tough to handle.

    I think I might be president of the Gorton fan club.

  15. BONE207 says:

    Jethro Tull: Picking first OV and damn near 1st for 10yrs should have set the team up for a decade. Yet here we are, having the same conversations and reminiscing about great bands and better whisky, our only consolations.

    And McDavid.

    Jethro…I came for the CONNOR & as an added bonus receive whiskey and music. LT is pretty good too.

  16. jtblack says:

    what number are the Oilers picks in the 4th , 6th and 7th round?

    Can still grab skill in those rounds … starting with Sasha Mutula in the 4th round!

  17. ArmchairGM says:

    36 percent body fat: round 2- brayden tracey 66 36 45 81 how is he not ranked higher, the math LT the Math

    His NHLe is virtually identical to Cozens’, 30.4 v 30.6. Impressive first season, and impressive at the U18’s. He’d be an excellent get at 38.

  18. Jethro Tull says:

    Woodguy v2.0: The LHD depth chart when he made the trade was:

    Klefbom
    Ferernce
    Marincin
    Nikitan

    The RHD depth chart was:
    Schultz
    Fayne

    Maybe you’re right.

    Dermott was still there at 33 as well.

    *Looks at WG’s depth chart. Shudders like Sideshow Bob. Remembers MacT saying he was happy going forward with this. Remembers he’ll be advising the new GM.*

  19. Coiler says:

    Jaxon,

    After reading what you wrote, I think I’d like to join that fan club.

  20. Durag says:

    Woodguy v2.0: The LHD depth chart when he made the trade was:

    Klefbom
    Ferernce
    Marincin
    Nikitan

    The RHD depth chart was:
    Schultz
    Fayne

    Maybe you’re right.

    Dermott was still there at 33 as well.

    Imagine looking at that depth chart and thinking that Griffin Reinhart was going to solve your problems

  21. Jethro Tull says:

    Jaxon:
    Competitor for best 3 draft years / offseasons: Jeff Gorton as Assistant GM (O’Connell has stated that Gorton was a major influence on who they drafted during that period) in 2004 and 2005: Bergeron at #45, Krecji at #63, Versteeg at #134 (Chiarelli later traded Versteeg and a cond. pick to Chicago for Brandon Bochenski before Versteeg played 1 NHL game). Gorton also signed Tim Thomas as a 28 year old (O’Connell has stated this was Gorton’s find). Then as Interim GM after O’Connell was fired and Chiarelli was hired in 2006, he drafted Kessel at #5, Lucic at #50, and Marchand at #71. On draft day he also traded Raycroft to Toronto for Rask. Then on July 1, he signed Chara and Savard. Then Chiarelli took over on July 15th. I wish Gorton was available as a GM candidate for Edmonton.

    Sather hired him and he fleeced Chiarelli on the Spooner/Strome trade. Gorton has since started a NYR rebuild on the fly with 13 top 70 picks in the past 3 drafts and he seems to lean on stats and analytics picking players like Kravtsov, Chytil, Lias Anderson, K’andre Miller, Lindkvist and Jacob Ragnarsson. He has also picked a few top goalie prospects (Olof Lindbom last year). This year he gets Kakko at #2, probably followed by one of Seider, Brink, Caufield, Lavoie or McMichael at #22 and maybe Pelletier at #37, Beaucage at #49, Goalie Guzda at #62 and maybe Nick Robertson at #68. Add that to their fairly young team, and in a couple of years, the Rangers will be tough to handle.

    I think I might be president of the Gorton fan club.

    Nice breakdown, but fleecing Pete in a deal shouldn’t be seen as an accomplishment.😀

  22. Jethro Tull says:

    Durag: Imagine looking at that depth chart and thinking that Griffin Reinhart was going to solve your problems

    Then straight on your phone buying bitcoin.

  23. flyfish1168 says:

    Skating, skill and competitiveness has to be a must. If a player has size I would go with that player over the smaller player. Hockey is played differently in the playoffs. Size will help. Jmho

  24. Durag says:

    Jethro Tull: Then straight on your phone buying bitcoin.

    In 2015? Sign me up

  25. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Jethro Tull: *Looks at WG’s depth chart. Shudders like Sideshow Bob. Remembers MacT saying he was happy going forward with this. Remembers he’ll be advising the new GM.*

    “I’m reasonably comfortable going forward with Oscar and Justin and Nikita and Andrew and Mark Fayne. ” – then GM Craig MacTavish

  26. dustrock says:

    Also LT referencing Grimes is not something I expected.

  27. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Re: McCrimmon

    Dennis linked to this article about GMGM trusting analytics and using it heavily:

    https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/sports-columns/ed-graney/gm-mcphee-puts-trust-in-data-as-he-builds-golden-knights/

    If GMGM bought in, chances are McCrimmon did as well.

    Which brings me to Misha Donskov

    Read this: https://www.foxsports.com/nhl/story/misha-donskov-las-vegas-expansion-team-front-office-111716

    Key parts:

    For Hockey Canada, Donskov became what VP of hockey operations Scott Salmond calls “our Swiss army knife.” He developed the organization’s analytics portal, created an in-house app so everyone can stay in touch during the NHL regular season, and twice won gold at the IIHF World Championships.

    “We hired him in video and analytics, and by the end I thought he could’ve been a GM of our teams and still helped in other areas,” Salmond says. “I relied on him as a sounding board. We did everything hand in hand, from coach prep to management to player evaluation.

    “I joke with George all the time. I should’ve tried to keep Misha hidden for him. To me, Mish won’t be in that job longer. He’s so talented that he’s going to push the boundaries. He’s going to be an assistant GM, he’s going to be a GM. He’s the perfect guy to help build an organization.”

    Donskov is *exactly* someone EDM needs.

    If EDM hires McCrimmon and tries to hire Donskov as AGM its a slam dunk that GMGM matches and keeps Donskov as AGM.

    So you hire McCrimmon to be President of Hockey Operations and he hires Donskov to be GM and they work as a team.

    Boom! EDM joins the 20th Century.

  28. Jaxon says:

    I’ve been compiling my Projected 5-on-5 Primary Pts for North American draft eligibles and that USNDP team really skews things. Their coach must run 3 lines fairly equally and other teams in the USHL must have a heck of a time trying to contain them. Turcotte’s numbers are off the charts with a projected 5-on-5 Primary Pts of 42. They have 9 forwards in the top 32, 8 in the top 16 and 7 in the top 8!! It is such a skewed situation. Because I believe they must roll 3 lines, nobody has very good TOI/GP, which normally, I’ve used to weed out prospects that can’t take their scoring to the next level, but everyone on their team is under the threshold, including Hughes!

    Only 4 North American players were above both thresholds of projected 25 primary points and 13.74 TOI/GP meaning they approach sure thing status by my parameters:
    Philip Tomasino (OHL) – 28.35 – usually ranked around #25
    Dylan Cozens (WHL) – 25.39 – usually ranked around #4
    Bobby Brink (USHL but not USNDP) – 25.34 – usually ranked around #23
    Arthur Kaliyev (OHL) – 25.25 – usually ranked around #14
    Connor McMichael (OHL) – 25.08 – usually ranked around #21

    For comparison, the highest Projected 5-on-5 Primary Pts since 2005
    2005 Sidney Crosby 48.18
    2015 Connor McDavid 44.02
    2019 Alex Turcotte 42.24
    2018 Andrei Svechnikov 38.80
    2015 Mitchell Marner 37.49
    The only caveat I’d add to Turcotte is that he only played 12.85 minutes per game which was 2nd line minutes on a stacked team, so he was well rested and probably facing lesser competition.

    Bobby Brink, however, playing in the same league was an island on his team and 15.97 minutes per game.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10ziGB9-Ey0dM24Spftpq-aBwn3dBGe6ohg1MS-ljLC4/edit?usp=sharing

    USNDP
    Alex Turcotte 42.23
    Michael Gildon 32.28
    Matthew Boldy 27.59
    Cole Caufield 27.36
    Trevor Zegras 27.22
    Jack Hughes 26.41
    John Beecher 25.87

    Hughes is 7th on his own team! You’d think with all the hype surrounding Hughes, he’d be able to separate himself from his teammates a bit in this measure.

    Here is the historical data going back to Crosby’s draft season for comparison. I will combine them in the near future, but it requires a bit of work to get the columns lined up, which I don’t have time for right now.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Z7hTmAK0yHaBUJdGTSPg8k1kjCLfD1k6ISMjledHoWc/edit?usp=sharing

    YEAR – Name – AGE & ERA ADJ NHLE 5-on-5 P1@TOP6TOI – eTOI/GP
    2005 – Sidney Crosby – 48.18 – 15.28
    2015 – Connor McDavid – 44.02 – 16.89
    2018 – Andrei Svechnikov – 38.80 – 15.07
    2015 – Mitchell Marner – 37.49 – 13.79
    2015 – Dylan Strome – 36.80 – 15.49
    2014 – Robby Fabbri – 33.93 – 14.99
    2007 – Patrick Kane – 32.41 – 14.22
    2013 – Nathan MacKinnon – 30.49 – 15.9
    2014 – Sam Bennett – 30.15 – 15.87
    2014 – Spencer Watson – 30.10 – 14.21
    2010 – Taylor Hall – 29.83 – 13.88
    2013 – Nicolas Petan – 29.48 – 17.21
    2016 – Pierre-Luc Dubois – 29.43 – 15.4
    2016 – Alex DeBrincat – 29.20 – 17.03
    2016 – Cameron Morrison – 29.13 – 15.25
    2016 – Adam Mascherin – 29.04 – 16.06
    2008 – Steven Stamkos – 28.87 – 13.74

    Interestingly, Philip Tomasino (OHL) – 28.35 – 13.91, is the only player that would join this upper echelon of past draft picks. I guess he could be the Watson, Morrison, Mascherin of the draft, but he’s in pretty good company otherwise, and Morrison and Mascherin still have a chance.

    PS Of those expected to go in the first round, Peyton Krebs does not look good by this metric. Dach is decent by this metric, not great. Nolan Foote looks downright bad. Lavoie and Pelletier look okay. I’d like to see Lavoies’ numbers combined with the playoffs. That would put him near the top, I’m sure.
    Kirby Dach 22.72
    Jakob Pelletier 20.65
    Raphael Lavoie 20.64
    Ryan Suzuki 20.34
    Peyton Krebs 17.95
    Nolan Foote 15.08

    Another interesting group of players is the almost-too-young group:
    Philip Tomasino – 28.35 5v5P1 – C – 17.134yrs – 13.93TOI
    Bobby Brink – 25.35 5v5P1 – C – 17.189yrs – 15.97TOI
    Arthur Kaliyev – 25.25 – RW – 17.221yrs – 16.16TOI
    Alex Beaucage – 23.31 – LW – 17.142yrs – 14.01TOI
    Tomasino, Brink, and Kaliyev have the makings of being real sleepers. Brink has excelled outside the USNDP and Tomasino has quietly put up some of the best numbers in Junior while almost being eligible for next year’s draft and Kaliyev had a historic year as a sniper. 51 goals from a kid with a late June birthday is pretty amazing, and he’s 6’4″ with decent speed.

    Brink is one of my new favorites:
    Cam Robinson – Dobber ProspectsFeb. 6th: “A deadly offensive player with quick hands, quick feet, and a nose for finishing plays. He’s been tearing the USHL apart at nearly a goal-per-game rate while adding a standout performance at the World Junior A Championships.”

    Will – Scouching.caJan. 7th: “Bobby Brink is a speedy winger who has exploded onto the map with little fanfare. A 50%INV in the USHL is unprecedented, and he’s effective at both ends. He is an equally dangerous playmaker and goal scorer with great separation speed.”

    Derek Neumeier – Future Considerations – Dec. 7th: “With quick feet, quick hands and a quick mind, Brink has been a standout so far in his first full USHL season, currently leading the league in points with 33 in just 19 games. Despite his diminutive size, he is dangerous around the net, assertively finding open space and loose pucks.”

    Scott Wheeler – The Athletic – Nov. 6th: “He has made things happen on just about every shift of my last two viewings, his feet never stop moving and he plays so much faster than everyone else at his level through quick dashes and short passes that defenders can’t keep track of him. It has been a joy to watch and should quickly eliminate the size concerns of most scouts.”

  29. OriginalPouzar says:

    There is some potential for the 2017 draft to produce 3 quality players – lots of road to go on Samorukov and Maksimov but here is hoping (in addition to Yamamoto).

    Looks like each of the last 3-4 drafts may give us 2 players.

  30. PinkSocks says:

    I like Cozens plenty, if he is there I think it’s a no brainer, and Beaucage would be nice value in the 3rd round…. but put me down for Albin Grewe at #38. I have watched quite a bit of him recently. Fast skater, really nice puck skills, a deceptive quick release, and he is a total prick on the ice. All skills which remind me of a larger version of Brad Marchand. McKenzie has him at 44, LT, you have him at 49, and and a few others have him as high as a late first round pick.

    He didn’t register a point in 15 SHL games, but has scored well at every other level. Curious as to your thoughts on him LT, WG, and others. I would be thrilled coming away with Cozens, Grewe, and Beaucage.

  31. PinkSocks says:

    Jaxon,

    Great work, thank you for this. Mascherin had a pretty impressive 20 yo season in the AHL. Great pick by the Stars last year.

  32. OriginalPouzar says:

    I generally don’t do too much work in to the top end of the draft until closer to June so I don’t know a ton about the top 10, however, from what I’ve read, the second tier stretches from 3-8 and there isn’t much to choose among the forwards in there – that is great news as we are in that tier and there is almost always an early team that stretches off the board (maybe Caufield this year) – Kotakaniemi, Hayton last year.

  33. PinkSocks says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    There is some potential for the 2017 draft to produce 3 quality players – lots of road to go on Samorukov and Maksimov but here is hoping (in addition to Yamamoto).

    Looks like each of the last 3-4 drafts may give us 2 players.

    Samorukov and Maksimov leave plenty to be excited about, but I have a feeling Yamamoto is moved this summer.

  34. PinkSocks says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I generally don’t do too much work in to the top end of the draft until closer to June so I don’t know a ton about the top 10, however, from what I’ve read, the second tier stretches from 3-8 and there isn’t much to choose among the forwards in there – that is great news as we are in that tier and there is almost always an early team that stretches off the board (maybe Caufield this year) – Kotakaniemi, Hayton last year.

    Agreed. And along with Caufield, I could see someone stretching for Lavoie based on his incredible playoff run.

  35. who says:

    Lowetide:
    36 %: I have Tracey at No. 45 on my latest list, he’ll probably be around when Edmonton picks in the second round. He would be an outstanding choice.

    Think he is going to go higher LT. At least based on his play at the U18’s. Looks like one of the most skilled forwards for Canada.

  36. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Someone here posted about Donskov the other day.

    For sure seems like an interesting fit. Nonis it is!

  37. Ryan says:

    Woodguy v2.0: The LHD depth chart when he made the trade was:

    Klefbom
    Ferernce
    Marincin
    Nikitan

    The RHD depth chart was:
    Schultz
    Fayne

    Maybe you’re right.

    Dermott was still there at 33 as well.

    Why do I remember Nikitan being advertised as a “shoots left, but he plays well on the right side” type of defenseman?

  38. russ99 says:

    We’re four years out from the Reinhart trade. Had we kept the pick, it would have been Eriksson-Ek.

    Dreaming on Barzal as to what could have been yet never really could have been is masochism.

    Maybe it’s time to realize lessons were learned, hopefully some of the key players in that trade are walked out of the building this summer.

    Any team can point at any draft four years out and say “we should have taken this guy”.

    Enough is enough. If we can get a competent GM, and have a better smarter staff around him, maybe then this fanbase can move past Hall and Barzal.

  39. commonfan29 says:

    Lowetide: That 2015 draft could have set up the team for a decade

    Easy to say in hindsight.

    It was also not terribly difficult to say in advance, as you showed by writing about exactly that many times leading up to the draft.

    I wish Chia had read some of it.

  40. jtblack says:

    Ryan: Why do I remember Nikitan being advertised as a “shoots left, but he plays well on the right side” type of defenseman?

    same advertisement as Reinhart .. and Russell ….

    You see, when team need is RHD and the GM continually goes out and gets LHD: the GM has to follow up the acquisition with “shoots left, but he plays well on the right side” 🙂

  41. commonfan29 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: “I’m reasonably comfortable going forward with Oscar and Justin and Nikita and Andrew and Mark Fayne. ” – then GM Craig MacTavish

    This is obviously terrible on its face, but it’s also something one would say to publicly fight against the idea that he should trade some of the picks he spent a lot of time and energy acquiring for immediate help.

    Had MacT stayed on and presumably not been blackballed from a Hamilton deal, I wonder if he would have pulled the trigger or kept his picks.

  42. Alpine says:

    I don’t know if Chicago will take a defenseman. They have Jokiharju and Boqvist and some other good D prospects. Not much on forward outside of the young Fs they have on their team already.

    Of course teams always forego team need at the draft so who knows. I does seem rare for a team to take defensemen with back to back picks in the top 10 though.

  43. JimmyV1965 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Re: McCrimmon

    Dennis linked to this article about GMGM trusting analytics and using it heavily:

    https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/sports-columns/ed-graney/gm-mcphee-puts-trust-in-data-as-he-builds-golden-knights/

    If GMGM bought in, chances are McCrimmon did as well.

    Which brings me to Misha Donskov

    Read this: https://www.foxsports.com/nhl/story/misha-donskov-las-vegas-expansion-team-front-office-111716

    Key parts:

    For Hockey Canada, Donskov became what VP of hockey operations Scott Salmond calls “our Swiss army knife.” He developed the organization’s analytics portal, created an in-house app so everyone can stay in touch during the NHL regular season, and twice won gold at the IIHF World Championships.


    “We hired him in video and analytics, and by the end I thought he could’ve been a GM of our teams and still helped in other areas,” Salmond says. “I relied on him as a sounding board. We did everything hand in hand, from coach prep to management to player evaluation.

    “I joke with George all the time. I should’ve tried to keep Misha hidden for him. To me, Mish won’t be in that job longer. He’s so talented that he’s going to push the boundaries. He’s going to be an assistant GM, he’s going to be a GM. He’s the perfect guy to help build an organization.”

    Donskov is *exactly* someone EDM needs.

    If EDM hires McCrimmon and tries to hire Donskov as AGM its a slam dunk that GMGM matches and keeps Donskov as AGM.

    So you hire McCrimmon to be President of Hockey Operations and he hires Donskov to be GM and they work as a team.

    Boom!EDM joins the 20th Century.

    Interesting that he was the AGM for London Knights as well.

  44. Ryan says:

    Off topic, but is today a day for celebration? Is the hosting migration complete? I don’t seem to have to login after every time I refresh the page?

  45. Alpine says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Someone here posted about Donskov the other day.

    For sure seems like an interesting fit. Nonis it is!

    I brought up Donskov. Hat tip to whoever brought him up last week in LT’s blog as a guy with connections to Mark Hunter. We have no idea if Hunter buys into analytics but Donskov did work under him before. So anyways, I looked up Donskov and found the same article WG posted about his work in getting Vegas up to speed.

    I feel WG is right though in that McPhee won’t let Donskov leave until he gets a GM position. Vegas does have Tom Poraszka, the creator of General Fanager, on staff so maybe that’s who you get as AGM or VP of Analytics.

  46. godot10 says:

    More brainstorming:

    Kassian and Benning for Kadri?

    Kassian and one of D prospects (Bear, Berglund, Lagesson) for Kadri. (I like this one better so I can save Benning for the JT Miller deal).

    If Toronto is on Russell’s list of ten teams, add Russell to either deal and take Zaitsev?

  47. godot10 says:

    My current preferences for #8OV

    Byram (likely won’t be there)
    Cozens (likely won’t be there)
    Turcotte, Boldy, Krebs (deciding) one or two could be gone.
    Dach

  48. Georgexs says:

    Starting at 1979, Edmonton’s 1979 and 1980 drafts were 5th and 6th best drafts by a team in terms of total points. Edmonton also did well in 1993 with Arnott, Satan, and Vyborny.

    Here are the teams with point totals greater than 3000 in drafts since 1979.

    Team, Year, Total Points (Players who played 400 or more games)

    Chicago, 1980, 3659 (Savard, Larmer, Troy Murray, Carey Wilson, Steve Ludzik)

    Calgary, 1984, 3645 (Hull, Roberts, Suter, Ranheim)

    Detroit, 1989, 3594 (Lidstrom, Fedorov, Mike Sillinger, Dallas Drake, Konstantinov)

    LA, 1980, 3559 (Bernie Nicholls, Larry Murphy, Steve Bozek, Jim Fox, Greg Terrion)

    EDM, 1979, 3417 (Messier, Anderson, Lowe)

    EDM, 1980, 3351 (Kurri, Coffey, Walt Poddubny)

    Quebec, 1979, 3152 (Goulet, Dale Hunter, Anton Stastny, Lee Norwood)

    Boston, 1979, 3129 ( Bourque, Brad McCrimmon, Krushelnyski, Keith Crowder, Larry Melnyk)

    In terms of games played, Detroit’s 1989 draft is the runaway winner with 5955. #2 by games played is Detroit’s 1983 draft with 5069. They drafted Yzerman, Klima, Probert, Kocur, and Grimson that year. Aside from the hall of famer and our OT hero, has to be the toughest draft haul ever, right?

  49. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    russ99:
    We’re four years out from the Reinhart trade. Had we kept the pick, it would have been Eriksson-Ek.

    Dreaming on Barzal as to what could have been yet never really could have been is masochism.

    Maybe it’s time to realize lessons were learned, hopefully some of the key players in that trade are walked out of the building this summer.

    Any team can point at any draft four years out and say “we should have taken this guy”.

    Enough is enough. If we can get a competent GM, and have a better smarter staff around him, maybe then this fanbase can move past Hall and Barzal.

    The fact the EDM would have picked Eriksson-Ek does not erase the reality that most here and most everywhere had Barzal as the best on the board

  50. Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR says:

    russ99:
    We’re four years out from the Reinhart trade. Had we kept the pick, it would have been Eriksson-Ek.

    Dreaming on Barzal as to what could have been yet never really could have been is masochism.

    Maybe it’s time to realize lessons were learned, hopefully some of the key players in that trade are walked out of the building this summer.

    Any team can point at any draft four years out and say “we should have taken this guy”.

    Enough is enough. If we can get a competent GM, and have a better smarter staff around him, maybe then this fanbase can move past Hall and Barzal.

    Well said! It does go to show you how much pressure will be on the next GM though. We, as a fanbase, are still firing bullets at a guy, who’s already been fired, over something he did 4 years ago. He’s never even gonna see the frying pan, straight into the fire from the moment Nicholson says “We’ll now take questions” at the presser introducing him!

  51. Pouzar says:

    As much as the Oilers screwed up I can’t help but think of a Bruins team with Barzal-Connor.
    My Gord. That would be just unfair right now.

  52. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0: The fact the EDM would have picked Eriksson-Ek does not erase the reality that most here and most everywhere had Barzal as the best on the board

    Picking the guy ranked #23 on Mckenzies list over the guy ranked #9 only compounds the level of serious errors done by the brain trust, and does not negated it like some people try to say (“oh we would have done something stupid with Barzal anyway so no big deal we didn’t pick him”)
    That was such a stupid trade especially after Boston went all stupid
    Wouldn’t surprise me if they didn’t have Barzal rated high cause they thought he was too much like Nuge

  53. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: The fact the EDM would have picked Eriksson-Ek does not erase the reality that most here and most everywhere had Barzal as the best on the board

    It’s actually even worse than “EDM has Ek next’

    Before the draft Mike Parkatti gave a presentation to management on “good players who drop in the draft and why”

    He showed that very good player drop because of 4 reasons:

    -they’re short
    -they’re injured in their draft year
    -they get way more assists than goals
    -they’re Russian (no shit, that’s the 4th reason)

    He pointed out that Barzal had been consistently the 2nd best Canadian in his age group since he was quite young (behind McDavid obv)

    Mike told them he expected him to drop because he fulfilled 3 of the 4 most common reasons why great players drop in a draft.

    Barzal had projected like a top 3 pick in most drafts for most of his hockey career until he got hurt in his draft and if by some small chance that Barzal dropped to them, it behooved them to run up and grab him.

    No shit.

    That actually happened.

    Then Pete did what Pete did on draft day.

  54. Jaxon says:

    Georgexs: Detroit, 1989, 3594 (Lidstrom, Fedorov, Mike Sillinger, Dallas Drake, Konstantinov)

    In terms of games played, Detroit’s 1989 draft is the runaway winner with 5955. #2 by games played is Detroit’s 1983 draft with 5069. They drafted Yzerman, Klima, Probert, Kocur, and Grimson that year. Aside from the hall of famer and our OT hero, has to be the toughest draft haul ever, right?

    Wow, 83 and 89 in Detroit went a long way to building that dynasty. Yzerman, Fedorov, Lidstrom, Konstantinov is a pretty strong core over 2 drafts, mostly in just one draft.

  55. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Pouzar:
    As much as the Oilers screwed up I can’t help but think of a Bruins team with Barzal-Connor.
    My Gord. That would be just unfair right now.

    Barzal, Connor and Chabot

  56. Cassandra says:

    godot10:
    More brainstorming:

    Kassian and Benning for Kadri?

    Kassian and one of D prospects (Bear, Berglund, Lagesson) for Kadri.(I like this one better so I can save Benning for the JT Miller deal).

    If Toronto is on Russell’s list of ten teams, add Russell to either deal and take Zaitsev?

    That is an incredibly bad trade. Kadri has one of the best contracts in the NHL, and Dubas doesn’t seem the type to lose a value trade proposition, and even if he were he would get way more.

    You are also crazy if you think TB is going to trade JT Miller for Matt Benning.

    TB is going to trade Miller or Johnson, but they are going to get good stuff back in return, and Dubas isn’t going to trade Kadri, he’ll trade Zaitsev.

    None of these teams have cap problems because there players at the bottom of their deck have trade value. They’ll trade them for picks and reload. Now these picks might not be true value for the players they give up but they’ll be worth a lot more than the nothing you see above.

  57. slopitch says:

    I still don’t hate the idea of trading a LD for a F (say Nurse for Ehlers?) and drafting Broberg. Im not sure Sekera can handle top 4 anymore… but the idea of Sekera and Russell having 2 years left on their contract means drafting a LD now and having Broberg or Samokurov ready seems reasonable. The #8 is 2 years out whether its a F or D regardless so sticking with BPA is the play (as much as I like Broberg).

    Sounded like Winnipeg might be moving Trouba this summer. Another option could be Nurse for Trouba. LD is the only position of strength on the team. I like Nurse plenty but Klebom’s contract is gonna be better going forward and Nurse is the only other LD with cache (I think). Im not disagreeing with the notion that the Oilers need a watershed draft and that draft and develop is the way to go. Im more just thinking about how to improve the team in the short term too. Maybe given that Nurse is likely to be value contract and the Oilers cap situation he’s a non starter to trade? I think he’s core but ‘available’ due to value. Its gonna be interesting which way the new GM takes this team. The path forward isnt clear. Other than “have a great draft”! 🙂

  58. JimmyV1965 says:

    Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR: Well said!It does go to show you how much pressure will be on the next GM though.We, as a fanbase, are still firing bullets at a guy, who’s already been fired, over something he did 4 years ago.He’s never even gonna see the frying pan, straight into the fire from the moment Nicholson says “We’ll now take questions” at the presser introducing him!

    To be fair to the fans, the Reinhart and Hall trades were exceptionally bad. I wonder if they are the two worst trades in the NHL over the last decade. If the new GM simply refrains from shitting the bed, and maybe even wins a trade, he’ll become a living legend in this town. He’s lucky in the sense that the bar here is so frickin low even baseline competency will be cheered.

  59. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Barzal, Connor and Chabot

    Well if we are following the just draft the consensus it would have been Barzal Connor and Zboril or Konencny if you are following Mckenzies list. Chabot would have been a reach as he was rated 25

  60. jtblack says:

    JimmyV1965: To be fair to the fans, the Reinhart and Hall trades were exceptionally bad. I wonder if they are the two worst trades in the NHL over the last decade.If the new GM simply refrains from shitting the bed, and maybe even wins a trade, he’ll become a living legend in this town. He’s lucky in the sense that the bar here is so frickin low even baseline competency will be cheered.

    +1.

    The Brandon Manning trade has to be right up there. Obviously not as impactful, but the fact PC acquired a player who was a HS for 14 games in a row and was so bad no other team wanted him. The fact PC gave up a young, scoring asset for Manning is laughable.

    Add on the fact of the McDavid / Manning history and again, the deal makes no sense.

  61. godot10 says:

    Cassandra: That is an incredibly bad trade.Kadri has one of the best contracts in the NHL, and Dubas doesn’t seem the type to lose a value trade proposition, and even if he were he would get way more.

    You are also crazy if you think TB is going to trade JT Miller for Matt Benning.

    TB is going to trade Miller or Johnson, but they are going to get good stuff back in return, and Dubas isn’t going to trade Kadri, he’ll trade Zaitsev.

    None of these teams have cap problems because there players at the bottom of their deck have trade value.They’ll trade them for picks and reload.Now these picks might not be true value for the players they give up but they’ll be worth a lot more than the nothing you see above.

    There aren’t that many teams that can afford to take on JT Miller and return a cheap 3rd pairing right shot D, like Benning, who can provide cover for Cal Foote. Benning is legit as a 3rd pairing RD. He is not a magic bean. Tampa will have a hard time finding a right shot depth D at better value. And right shot D is what they are going to be looking for.

    The Oilers might have to add a pick, but salary cap trades result in a discount, even for Tampa.

    Johnson would be acceptable too, but why would he waive his no trade clause to come to Edmonton.

  62. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Totally off topic, but LT you might like this Vlaad kid a lot, given your fondness for the Expos

    – First a poignant post from Vlaad Sr. telling his son that Canada will be proud of him (with that awesome photo of Dad and Son at the O), playing where he was born

    – Then Vlaad, he is walking through Sky Dome today, in an Expo jersey: love it!!!

    – I’m going to game: was in Syracuse, saw his last minor-league at-bat: opposite-field dinger

    https://larrybrownsports.com/baseball/vladimir-guerrero-twitter-photo-son-mlb-debut/493182

  63. godot10 says:

    JimmyV1965: To be fair to the fans, the Reinhart and Hall trades were exceptionally bad. I wonder if they are the two worst trades in the NHL over the last decade.If the new GM simply refrains from shitting the bed, and maybe even wins a trade, he’ll become a living legend in this town. He’s lucky in the sense that the bar here is so frickin low even baseline competency will be cheered.

    Forsberg for Erat. George McPhee did that. It is the trade success rate that counts. One clunker in 10 trades isn’t going to kill you. Two back to back, like Hall and Reinhart, couple with abominable signing of Russell and Lucic….

  64. jtblack says:

    There is a difference between using Hindsight to Cherry Pick 1 player vs Shooting Fish in a Barrell.

    It’s different is you look back at a draft and say, dammit – I would have picked Kucherov, even though he went 58th. Or I was all over Point in the 1st round even though he went #79th.

    In 2015 it was shooting fish in a barrell, not just “cherry picking 1 guy”.

    At #16 Edmonton could have taken any of the next 3 players drafted and hit a home run. To look at it another way, they could have taken the player ranked 5th – 9th on EVERY analyst draft board and hit the home run (clear BPA).

    At #33 Edmonton could have taken 1 of 5 players chosen between #33 – #38 and had a 60% chance to land a NHL player / possibly a STAR.

    Also, if Edmonon knew how to evaluate talent they may have used #33 to move up and grab an even more impactful player. If you don’t believe that was possible, well, the Islanders did it. in real time, in real life.

    Add to that, that not all drafts are created equally. 2015 was widely considered to be one of the best drafts due to the UNREAL top end talent and excellent depth through and beyond Round 1.

    Had the asset coming back from #16 & #33 been like an Adam Larsson or some reliable Top 4 defenseman, the whole ordeal would be more palatable, still not excuseable.

    The fact that the return was a 2nd pairing AHL D man made the deal confusing IN REAL TIME.

  65. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Georgexs,

    – On top of those two massive consecutive draft hauls, some kid name Gretzky was also acquired

    – A lot of luck conspired to make those teams amongst the all-timers

  66. godot10 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    Georgexs,

    – On top of those two massive consecutive draft hauls, some kid name Gretzky was also acquired

    – A lot of luck conspired to make those teams amongst the all-timers

    The 1979 draft also only had 6 rounds, and 21 teams. Charlie Huddy was signed as an undrafted free agent.

  67. Bag of Pucks says:

    Woodguy v2.0: “I’m reasonably comfortable going forward with Oscar and Justin and Nikita and Andrew and Mark Fayne. ” – then GM Craig MacTavish

    And he’s still employed with the org. That quote should’ve been chiseled on his pink slip.

    Gregor & Rishaug are saying on an almost daily basis now that Burgers should be cleaning some of the rot out now before they buy the new paint. What’s the chances that’s falling on deaf ears with Katz, Burgers, Gretzky, etc.?

    Gotta preserve that culture!

  68. godot10 says:

    Is the defensemen Noah Gregor on Prince Albert Raiders (SJ draft, I think) related to Jason Gregor?

  69. jtblack says:

    godot10:
    Is the defensemen Noah Gregoron Prince Albert Raiders (SJ draft, I think) related to Jason Gregor?

    Yes, nephew I believe and he’s not a Defenseman. He’s a winger.

  70. Bag of Pucks says:

    Woodguy v2.0: It’s actually even worse than “EDM has Ek next’

    Before the draft Mike Parkatti gave a presentation to management on “good players who drop in the draft and why”

    He showed that very good player drop because of 4 reasons:

    -they’re short
    -they’re injured in their draft year
    -they get way more assists than goals
    -they’re Russian (no shit, that’s the 4th reason)

    He pointed out that Barzal had been consistently the 2nd best Canadian in his age group since he was quite young (behind McDavid obv)

    Mike told them he expected him to drop because he fulfilled 3 of the 4 most common reasons why great players drop in a draft.

    Barzal had projected like a top 3 pick in most drafts for most of his hockey career until he got hurt in his draft and if by some small chance that Barzal dropped to them, it behooved them to run up and grab him.

    No shit.

    That actually happened.

    Then Pete did what Pete did on draft day.

    If we’re going to pat ourselves on the back for theoretically picking Barzal, we should probably shoot ourselves in the face for picking Yakupov using the same logic (ie the consensus rankings).

    I’m amazed at the ongoing obsession with those particular wasted picks when the reality is this org has been wasting draft picks for decades.

  71. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer: Well if we are following the just draft the consensus it would have been Barzal Connor and Zboril or Konencny if you are following Mckenzies list.Chabot would have been a reach as he was rated 25

    Using LT’s list it would have been Barzal, Svechnikov and Merkely.

    If you swap Merkley for a Dman it would have been Kylington

  72. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bag of Pucks: If we’re going to pat ourselves on the back for theoretically picking Barzal, we should probably shoot ourselves in the face for picking Yakupov using the same logic (ie the consensus rankings).

    I’m amazed at the ongoing obsession with those particular wasted picks when the reality is this org has been wasting draft picks for decades.

    This is an actual story of what happened in the Oilers draft room before the draft.

    No one is patting themselves on the back. I’m patting Mike on the back and smacking EDM management who were in the room.

    I also did not use the word consensus.

    I don’t know what you read, but it wasn’t my post apparently.

    Also,

    Yak pick was fine.

  73. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    godot10:
    Is the defensemen Noah Gregoron Prince Albert Raiders (SJ draft, I think) related to Jason Gregor?

    Winger, his nephew.

  74. Greenberg says:

    You folks are overdosing on your if-only pills this morning. Over-doing it. Let us hope that the good Gord grants us grace and wisdom in the new GM.
    An aside: I do wish some of you who propose these trades would have a better idea of what your counterparts are saying about them in their markets. Suggesting getting Zaitzev in a trade just means you have nor read your counterparts’ views in Toronto. We need to give Lowetide more money so he can hire better scouts at the professional level.

  75. Greenberg says:

    nor should be not in the above.

  76. Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR says:

    JimmyV1965: To be fair to the fans, the Reinhart and Hall trades were exceptionally bad. I wonder if they are the two worst trades in the NHL over the last decade.If the new GM simply refrains from shitting the bed, and maybe even wins a trade, he’ll become a living legend in this town. He’s lucky in the sense that the bar here is so frickin low even baseline competency will be cheered.

    I’m actually afraid of the opposite situation. He comes in and gets hammered by fans/media for “just OK” moves because our barometer is so screwed up from past moves. Or he holds onto the picks and shows patience, and we rip him for not being aggressive enough. All we know from the past (mostly) 15 years is despair. I don’t know if we’re gonna be happy with just gradual progress, which is probably the most we can hope for.

  77. blainer says:

    Just curious.. How does this draft compare to 2015?

    I’ve heard it’s a deep draft but wonder how it compares to previous draft’s. That 2012 draft also looks pretty bad the other way. I wonder if we are somewhere in between..

  78. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    blainer:
    Just curious.. How does this draft compare to 2015?

    I’ve heard it’s a deep draft but wonder how it compares to previous draft’s. That 2012 draft also looks pretty bad the other way. I wonder if we are somewhere in between..

    I’ve read that past 8-10 its kinda meh

    I have no idea myself

  79. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    godot10: The 1979 draft also only had 6 rounds, and 21 teams.Charlie Huddy was signed as an undrafted free agent.

    – Ebs, Riley and Cogliaio are the only top-6 forward we draft and developed, non-lottery pick in 15 years. Riley is the only non-1st rounder we have drafted and developed that is/was top-6 (barely)

    – You have to go back to 2002 with Stoll to get a bona-fide top-6 non-1st rounder, I think

    – Untill we draft and develop and matriculate (and play for us), the rest don’t matter

  80. Doug McLachlan says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    And San Jose 4th rounder, IIRC.

  81. Doug McLachlan says:

    If we are revisiting the Reinhart trade, do remember the context (not as an excuse but just for a fuller understanding). Boston was holding out for Nurse in their trade offer for Hamilton.

    If the trade was #16, #33 and Nurse for Hamilton (and say the compensatory 2nd for the Chia signing) how would we have viewed it at the time? Now?

  82. jtblack says:

    blainer:
    Just curious.. How does this draft compare to 2015?

    I’ve heard it’s a deep draft but wonder how it compares to previous draft’s. That 2012 draft also looks pretty bad the other way. I wonder if we are somewhere in between..

    Supposedly 2020 is supposed to be more like 2015.

    I would use 2014 as a comparable for this year. Nothing special. Some good players at the top with Gems sprinkled thoughout (prob like all drafts).

    Heavy on F’s at the Top. Few D

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2014e.html

  83. Doug McLachlan says:

    On a different note, was listening to Sportsnet’s Chris Johnson on the Steve Dangle podcast, had to soak up some more Leaf-flavoured shadenfreude, and was discussing the talk around the Brown-Benning trade. There was apparently a larger deal involving Larsson but while the Brown deal might be revisited (got the sense that the Leafs were not the instigators of this one) the Larsson deal, at least with Toronto, doesn’t look like a fit – though it seemed that a trade involving Larsson out of Edmonton is being discussed still.

  84. JimmyV1965 says:

    godot10: Forsberg for Erat.George McPhee did that.It is the trade success rate that counts. One clunker in 10 trades isn’t going to kill you.Two back to back, like Hall and Reinhart, couple with abominable signing of Russell and Lucic….

    Ya. The Forsberg trade was the worst. Would be interesting to see a list of the worst trades over the last decade though. Chia would be well represented. I think the Seguin deal was in the last decade. Every GM should get a mulligan or two, but Chia’s level of suck is historic IMO. And I was still on the fence with Chia at the start of the year!!!

  85. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Doug McLachlan,

    – Brown is pretty sh$t IMO (but better tahn most of our wingers)… Certainly not worth giving up much for a guy who did nuthin’ and played little minutes in playoffs way down the order

    – I can see us trading him for Benning, then wishing we had another RHD with some toughness and experience, while wanting more offense from our wingers…

  86. JimmyV1965 says:

    godot10:
    Is the defensemen Noah Gregoron Prince Albert Raiders (SJ draft, I think) related to Jason Gregor?

    Nephew

  87. JimmyV1965 says:

    Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR: I’m actually afraid of the opposite situation.He comes in and gets hammered by fans/media for “just OK” movesbecause our barometer is so screwed up from past moves.Or he holds onto the picks and shows patience, and we rip him for not being aggressive enough.All we know from the past (mostly) 15 years is despair.I don’t know if we’re gonna be happy with just gradual progress, which is probably the most we can hope for.

    Anything can happen. What I do know is that I would much rather be the guy they replaces Chia, rather than the guy that replaces Yzerman. And even Gretzky is getting a passing grade right now for basically doing nothing.

  88. slopitch says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I shared that with you 2 days ago! 😛

  89. Jaxon says:

    jtblack: “Ethan Keppen plays for Flint Firebirds of the OHL, that’s a tough place to play. He delivered 30 goals in 68 games this season, on a team that scored just 212. Good speed and size (6.02, 214).”

    This guys seems very interesting?

    He showed fairly well on my sheets

    Alex Beaucage 23.30741762
    Ethan Keppen 23.2399663

    These two are just below the group I mentioned above. Solid picks who played over 14 minutes per.

  90. Georgexs says:

    The 2003 draft was extraordinary.

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2003e.html

    Skaters taken in 2003 have played over 44K games and scored over 20K points in the regular season. Here’s a list of players from that draft who’ve scored at least 300 points:

    Eric Staal 974
    Ryan Getzlaf 923
    Patrice Bergeron 813
    Thomas Vanek 789
    Corey Perry 776
    Joe Pavelski 761
    Zach Parise 746
    Jeff Carter 705
    Brent Burns 649
    Dustin Brown 618
    Loui Eriksson 580
    Ryan Kesler 573
    David Backes 551
    Ryan Suter 540
    Shea Weber 534
    Dustin Byfuglien 525
    Dion Phaneuf 494
    Mike Richards 487
    Lee Stempniak 469
    Brent Seabrook 460
    Milan Michalek 446
    Nathan Horton 421
    Matt Moulson 369
    Toby Enstrom 308
    Clarke MacArthur 304

    Long list.

    The only one of our picks that got close to 300 was Brodziak. He’s sitting at 296.

    Who’s Marc Antoine Pouliot?

  91. Jaxon says:

    JimmyV1965: Chia would be well represented

    He has a greatest hits list
    Kessel
    Seguin
    Hamilton
    Wheeler
    Versteeg
    Hall
    Schultz
    Eberle
    Strome
    Rheinhart
    ….
    I’d find More I’m sure but I have to pick up the kid

  92. hunter1909 says:

    Georgexs: Who’s Marc Antoine Pouliot?

    That’s easy.

    Marc Antoine Pouliot is the player Lowe+MacT loudly announced to the world they were thrilled to throw away the chance to draft a small sized dynamic player(Zack Parise); trading down in perhaps the greatest draft ever to pick someone on the basis that MAP(as he was affectionately known) looked to be well suited to play for a terrible terrible hockey team and not appear to be bothered from it.

    A top 10 tragicomic move by Lowe+MacT. You cannot make this level of lame up. Real people must act this stupid, in documented form because otherwise no one would ever believe it.

  93. YKOil says:

    jtblack:
    Add to that, that not all drafts are created equally.2015 was widely considered to be one of the best drafts due to the UNREAL top end talent and excellent depth through and beyond Round 1.

    Had the asset coming back from #16 & #33 been like an Adam Larsson or some reliable Top 4 defenseman, the whole ordeal would be more palatable, still not excuseable.

    The fact that the return was a 2nd pairing AHL D man made the deal confusing IN REAL TIME.

    This. All day long. Original sin type of shit really. Try to get Hamilton, fine, makes sense. Sekera AND Hamilton in one off-season, nice way to goose the re-build.

    Reinhart???????

    And with that he should have been pulled away from the table and handed his walking papers.

  94. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    slopitch:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    I shared that with you 2 days ago!

    Thank you.

    Its pretty awesome.

  95. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georgexs,

    Who’s Marc Antoine Pouliot?

    The guy with the pubis thing.

    or the hind banana

    I forget which.

    Both?

  96. hunter1909 says:

    Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR: All we know from the past (mostly) 15 years is despair. I don’t know if we’re gonna be happy with just gradual progress, which is probably the most we can hope for.

    That’s just it. Oilers fans have been so bitch slapped they’ve collectively lost their mind.

    Having just watched so many “great” teams like the Bolts, Flames and Leafs all crash and burn like dummies when exposed to the reality of springtime NHL officiating – it’s obvious that what Oilers need is a solid season of internally driven progress, perhaps two seasons and then some of these so-called great defence prospects will be on the team.

    The forwards shouldn’t take rocket science to cobble together when they get McDavid/Draisaitl/RNH as centres. Look at the Johnny Hockey’s down Highway 2 and see what happens when a miniature player leads the team, lol

  97. hunter1909 says:

    YKOil: And with that he should have been pulled away from the table and handed his walking papers.

    When you put yourself in the position of Lowe+MacT the last thing you want is to fire anyone – because then You might be the next one fired.

    Lowe+MacT prefer to let their poor hires 1000% totally screw up, so there is so much stench that everyone forgets who hired them. Guess what? It works.

  98. hunter1909 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Georgexs,

    Who’s Marc Antoine Pouliot?

    The guy with the pubis thing.

    or the hind banana

    I forget which.

    Both?

    He’s the Oilers 2003 1st round pick who never developed to NHL level for some weird reason; despite having been both personally selected and carefully mentored by both Lowe+MacT.

  99. SwedishPoster says:

    blainer:
    Just curious.. How does this draft compare to 2015?

    I’ve heard it’s a deep draft but wonder how it compares to previous draft’s. That 2012 draft also looks pretty bad the other way. I wonder if we are somewhere in between..

    My impression is that it isn’t great but there are some exceptional talents and imo that talent is kind of scattered all over the consensus board ie I don’t think the current rankings will hold up down the line. A lot of how the hell did he not go top ten if my spider senses are correct.

  100. YKOil says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I’ve read that past 8-10 its kinda meh. I have no idea myself

    To my, admittedly, untrained eye it’s a really good year.

    The first two picks are gimme’s and after that are 6-8 more that are probable impact players.

    Then another 4 or so that are probable full-time players but you don’t know if, for example, Caulfield is a 30+ goal guy or a 15+ goal guy or if, further example, Lavoie is a 20+ goal 1st or 2nd line guy or someone closer to the Ferland/Kassian tree.

    The there are 2 goalies who are legit probables (as opposed to ‘take-a-flyer-on-one-because-the-prospect pool-says-so’) – which is pretty good for goalie’s. At least one could be taken late in the first round, the other in the mid-second round, and no one would blink an eye at those picks.

    That is pretty damn good really.

    But it is NOT a 2015 draft. Those are special drafts and teams, if they have any brains at all, build TOWARDS those years and try to pick up extra picks in the 1st and 2nd rounds.

  101. RonnieB says:

    According to Kurt Leavins in C of H, Mike Futa is still in the GM mix for Edmonton.

    Any opinions on him ?

  102. leadfarmer says:

    hunter1909: He’s the Oilers 2003 1st round pick who never developed to NHL level for some weird reason; despite having been both personally selected and carefully mentored by both Lowe+MacT.

    I thought he was the love child of LT and Diane Lane

  103. godot10 says:

    Georgexs:
    The 2003 draft was extraordinary.

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2003e.html

    Skaters taken in 2003 have played over 44K games and scored over 20K points in the regular season. Here’s a list of players from that draft who’ve scored at least 300 points:

    Eric Staal974
    Ryan Getzlaf923
    Patrice Bergeron813
    Thomas Vanek789
    Corey Perry 776
    Joe Pavelski761
    Zach Parise 746
    Jeff Carter 705
    Brent Burns 649
    Dustin Brown618
    Loui Eriksson 580
    Ryan Kesler 573
    David Backes551
    Ryan Suter540
    Shea Weber534
    Dustin Byfuglien525
    Dion Phaneuf494
    Mike Richards 487
    Lee Stempniak 469
    Brent Seabrook460
    Milan Michalek446
    Nathan Horton 421
    Matt Moulson369
    Toby Enstrom308
    Clarke MacArthur304

    Long list.

    The only one of our picks that got close to 300 was Brodziak. He’s sitting at 296.

    Who’s Marc Antoine Pouliot?

    Most of them caught a forced extra year of junior or season in the AHL because of the lockout. Development is a thing.

  104. Todd Macallan says:

    A penny for LT’s thoughts watching Vladdy Jr. walk into the ball park wearing dad’s Expos jersey.

  105. godot10 says:

    Georgexs:

    Who’s Marc Antoine Pouliot?

    The guy who decided to get mono at the most inopportune time in his hockey career.

  106. godot10 says:

    hunter1909: He’s the Oilers 2003 1st round pick who never developed to NHL level for some weird reason; despite having been both personally selected and carefully mentored by both Lowe+MacT.

    MacT knew only one way to lead a horse to water. If the player was ill-suited to learn the single way MacT could teach, the relationship with and the development of the player would falter. #MacTonlyknewonewaytoskinacat.

    It is sort of part of the culture of the Oilers organization apart from brief interruptions when Krueger and Nelson were coach.

    It is a feature of Oilers culture now.

  107. Professor Q says:

    Todd Macallan:
    A penny for LT’s thoughts watching Vladdy Jr. walk into the ball park wearing dad’s Expos jersey.

    I wonder if Washington could sue if that did indeed happen?

  108. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    jtblack: +1.

    The Brandon Manning trade has to be right up there. Obviously not as impactful, but the fact PC acquired a player who was a HS for 14 games in a row and was so bad no other team wanted him. The fact PC gave up a young, scoring asset for Manning is laughable.

    Add on the fact of the McDavid / Manning history and again, the deal makes no sense.

    xinfinity

  109. Bag of Pucks says:

    Woodguy v2.0: This is an actual story of what happened in the Oilers draft room before the draft.

    No one is patting themselves on the back.I’m patting Mike on the back and smacking EDM management who were in the room.

    I also did not use the word consensus.

    I don’t know what you read, but it wasn’t my post apparently.

    Also,

    Yak pick was fine.

    Sorry, the point I was trying to make (badly) is that Barzal was seen as the consensus pick by Oilers fans based on how far he’d slid on the MacKenzie list. But the Oil have also made the Mackenzie/Consensus/BPA pick many times before with uneven results.

    McDavid, Hall to the good going with the herd
    Yakupov, If Bennett instead of Drai, is bad going with the herd
    RNH was a herd good pick but a tenable argument can be made if the Oil drafted for need instead that year (Larsson), they may have had a better team now with Hall on the roster

    The larger point I’m trying to make is the Oilers are a failed org much moreso because they suck at drafting than because they trade their picks. The Reinhart trade was an outlier with external pressures and that GM is now gone.

    Analytics should give an org a competitive advantage. When that happens, their behaviour should break with the herd. As a community, we cling to the value of those consensus rankings. Drafting like that can bring a team from bad to middle of the pack but they’ll never excel.

    Once again the entire league was surprised to learn who the NE Patriots drafted last night. The next day they’re all looking at this beast wondering how they missed slotting him as a 1st rounder. That’s competitive advantage.

    To summarize in an extremely pithy way. The goal of analytics adoption should not be to eliminate ‘smartest man in the room decision making’ but rather should enable an org to create a system of insights designed to create these smart men in every facet of the org. Consensus ranking are groupthink. They have no place in an org attempting to iterate a better mousetrap other than as a comparative benchmark. Winning by its definition means being better than the herd.

  110. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jethro Tull: Picking first OV and damn near 1st for 10yrs should have set the team up for a decade. Yet here we are, having the same conversations and reminiscing about great bands and better whisky, our only consolations.

    And McDavid.

    Yup, you nailed it – we are having the “same conversations” – looking back to have the same discussions regarding the mistakes that were made. Of course, we could have new conversations regarding the various ways the organization could move forward to get better – the risks of different paths, the potential rewards of patiance vs. such risks, etc…….

  111. jtblack says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    “Once again the entire league was surprised to learn who the NE Patriots drafted last night.”

    The NFL has also been surprised at who the Oakland Raiders have drafted in the past? Do you want to use them as an example? or just stick with what is arguably the most dominant Franchise in any sport over 2 decades so that it fits your narrative?

  112. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10:
    More brainstorming:

    Kassian and Benning for Kadri?

    Kassian and one of D prospects (Bear, Berglund, Lagesson) for Kadri.(I like this one better so I can save Benning for the JT Miller deal).

    If Toronto is on Russell’s list of ten teams, add Russell to either deal and take Zaitsev?

    I would love to get Kadri – given his age (turning 29 at the beginning of the season), the 3-year term works and that’s a great contract.

    I don’t see the Leafs selling him for pennies on the dollar – he is a legit material player and they will want value back.

    I believe they will want Larsson and that is likely solid value in a one for one, however, of course, that simply does not work for this team given the depth chart and that would make the team worse.

    I’m not sure I like it but the other option could be to structure something around Kadri for Nuge:

    Kadri, Jonsson, Brown, 1st rounder,

    Nuge, Benning, 2nd rounder,

  113. Bag of Pucks says:

    jtblack:
    Bag of Pucks,

    “Once again the entire league was surprised to learn who the NE Patriots drafted last night.”

    The NFL has also been surprised at who the Oakland Raiders have drafted in the past?Do you want to use them as an example?or just stick with what is arguably the most dominant Franchise in any sport over 2 decades so that it fits your narrative?

    The latter obviously. Why do you even have to ask the question?

    When a team is this successful, they should be studied for best practices that can be emulated. Arguing otherwise is foolish imo.

    Here’s a thought. If you want to add something of value to a conversation, try to find a worthwhile point beyond simple kneejerk sarcasm towards others.

  114. Lowetide says:

    PinkSocks:
    I like Cozens plenty, if he is there I think it’s a no brainer, and Beaucage would be nice value in the 3rd round…. but put me down for Albin Grewe at #38.I have watched quite a bit of him recently.Fast skater, really nice puck skills, a deceptive quick release, and he is a total prick on the ice.All skills which remind me of a larger version of Brad Marchand.McKenzie has him at 44, LT, you have him at 49, and and a few others have him as high as a late first round pick.

    He didn’t register a point in 15 SHL games, but has scored well at every other level.Curious as to your thoughts on him LT, WG, and others.I would be thrilled coming away with Cozens, Grewe, and Beaucage.

    He played 5:45 per game, so the 15 games adds up to less than 90 minutes. Not much can be read into that sample size.

  115. jtblack says:

    Bag of Pucks: The latter obviously. Why do you even have to ask the question?

    When a team is this successful, they should be studied for best practices that can be emulated. Arguing otherwise is foolish imo.

    Here’s a thought. If you want to add something of value to a conversation, try to find a worthwhile point beyond simple kneejerk sarcasm towards others.

    I think there are a lot of Analytics that go into the rankings of Consensus Top Players. No person or company will ever nail the Top 10 picks of any draft, in any sport. I also don’t think that by automatically drafting a player who’s considered an outlier is a competitive advantage?

    _______________
    “The Raiders stunned almost everyone with the selection of Ferrell over Kentucky edge rusher Josh Allen, as Ferrell was commonly projected to be picked in the middle or late stages of the first round”
    ________

    Sorry if you are uncomfortable being questioned on a statement. I do add a lot of value to the conversation. thanks

  116. hunter1909 says:

    Bag of Pucks: The Reinhart trade was an outlier with external pressures and that GM is now gone.

    Incredible. Chiarelli gets hired by an organization enamored by consensus decision making and the first thing he does after relocating 2,000 miles to the west of Boston is trade for a former Oil King?? And now, in 2019, some random dude coming from Boston is still supposed to be the one who was, mere days into a new job pushing for Reinhart?

    note: the ‘preaching to the choir’ quotient is sky high here

  117. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georgexs:
    The 2003 draft was extraordinary.

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2003e.html

    Skaters taken in 2003 have played over 44K games and scored over 20K points in the regular season. Here’s a list of players from that draft who’ve scored at least 300 points:

    Eric Staal974
    Ryan Getzlaf923
    Patrice Bergeron813
    Thomas Vanek789
    Corey Perry 776
    Joe Pavelski761
    Zach Parise 746
    Jeff Carter 705
    Brent Burns 649
    Dustin Brown618
    Loui Eriksson 580
    Ryan Kesler 573
    David Backes551
    Ryan Suter540
    Shea Weber534
    Dustin Byfuglien525
    Dion Phaneuf494
    Mike Richards 487
    Lee Stempniak 469
    Brent Seabrook460
    Milan Michalek446
    Nathan Horton 421
    Matt Moulson369
    Toby Enstrom308
    Clarke MacArthur304

    Long list.

    The only one of our picks that got close to 300 was Brodziak. He’s sitting at 296.

    Who’s Marc Antoine Pouliot?

    2015 is tracking ahead of 2003 btw

  118. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    YKOil: To my, admittedly, untrained eye it’s a really good year.

    The first two picks are gimme’s and after that are 6-8 more that are probable impact players.

    Then another 4 or so that are probable full-time players but you don’t know if, for example, Caulfield is a 30+ goal guy or a 15+ goal guy or if, further example, Lavoie is a 20+ goal 1st or 2nd line guy or someone closer to the Ferland/Kassian tree.

    The there are 2 goalies who are legit probables (as opposed to ‘take-a-flyer-on-one-because-the-prospect pool-says-so’) – which is pretty good for goalie’s.At least one could be taken late in the first round, the other in the mid-second round, and no one would blink an eye at those picks.

    That is pretty damn good really.

    But it is NOT a 2015 draft.Those are special drafts and teams, if they have any brains at all, build TOWARDS those years and try to pick up extra picks in the 1st and 2nd rounds.

    Good stuff.

    I have Byram as high high end (Niedermyer/Pietrangelo level)so I think there is a top 3.

    Complete Dman who can be your #1 for 15 years.

    Note: Niedermyer is full step above Pietrangelo, I don’t have them on the same level

  119. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer: I thought he was the love child of LT and Diane Lane

    This is the correct answer

  120. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    RonnieB:
    According to Kurt Leavins in C of H, Mike Futa is still in the GM mix for Edmonton.

    Any opinions on him ?

    I couldn’t pick him out of a line up, nor point at one thing he has done.

    That said, he’s been interviewed for many GM jobs and has never got any of them so there is Tambellini vibe there.

    No clue, but that is a small red flag.

  121. Bag of Pucks says:

    jtblack: I think there are a lot of Analytics that go into the rankings of Consensus Top Players. No person or company will ever nail the Top 10 picks of any draft, in any sport. I also don’t think that by automatically draftinga player who’s considered an outlier is a competitive advantage?

    _______________
    “The Raiders stunned almost everyone with the selection of Ferrell over Kentucky edge rusher Josh Allen, as Ferrell was commonly projected to be picked in the middle or late stages of the first round”
    ________

    Sorry if you are uncomfortable being questioned on a statement.I do add a lot of value to the conversation.thanks

    Your example is disingenious/trolling imi because obviously the Raiders have no track record of success going off the board. The Patriots do which is precisely why they’re the trenchant example.

    Your argument seems to be no one can do this except the best, so why bother? Being the last (and smartest guys) standing is kind of the entire point of professional team sports. The effort to excel is implied.

    Rankings like the MacKenzie list are Bob canvassing influential scouts to establish the theoretical ‘consensus’ That process is rife with human influence both good and bad.

    The most obvious question on consensus rankings and scouting services is why in God’s name would the actual best that own competitive advantages want to share this intel with the herd? I get it from an ass covering perspective but beyond that it’s pretty utopian and implausible imo.

  122. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bag of Pucks: Sorry, the point I was trying to make (badly) is that Barzal was seen as the consensus pick by Oilers fans based on how far he’d slid on the MacKenzie list. But the Oil have also made the Mackenzie/Consensus/BPA pick many times before with uneven results.

    McDavid, Hallto the good going with the herd
    Yakupov, If Bennett instead of Drai, is bad going with the herd
    RNH was a herd good pick but a tenable argument can be made if the Oil drafted for need instead that year (Larsson), they may have had a better team now with Hall on the roster

    The larger point I’m trying to make is the Oilers are a failed org much moreso because they suck at drafting than because they trade their picks. The Reinhart trade was an outlier with external pressures and that GM is now gone.

    Analytics should give an org a competitive advantage. When that happens, their behaviour should break with the herd. As a community, we cling to the value of those consensus rankings. Drafting like that can bring a team from bad to middle of the pack but they’ll never excel.

    Once again the entire league was surprised to learn who the NE Patriots drafted last night. The next day they’re all looking at this beast wondering how they missed slottinghim as a 1st rounder. That’s competitive advantage.

    To summarize in an extremely pithy way. The goal of analytics adoption should not be to eliminate ‘smartest man in the room decision making’ but rather should enable an org to create a system of insights designed to create these smart men in every facet of the org. Consensus ranking are groupthink. They have no place in an org attempting to iterate a better mousetrap other than as a comparative benchmark. Winning by its definition means being better than the herd.

    Thanks for that.

    It wasn’t just Oiler fans though.

    My entire twitter feed (which has smart fans and observers of most teams) was losing its mind that BOS didn’t take Barzal.

    The non-Oiler fans were apocalyptic that EDM was getting McDavid and Barzal in the same draft and were spitting fire.

    Also,

    The review journal piece I linked to earlier is very informative about how teams have integrated analytics, even with an established GM like GMGM.

  123. Bag of Pucks says:

    hunter1909: Incredible. Chiarelli gets hired by an organization enamored by consensus decision making and the first thing he does after relocating 2,000 miles to the west of Boston is trade for a former Oil King??And now, in 2019, some random dude coming from Boston is still supposed to be the one who was, mere days into a new job pushing for Reinhart?

    note: the ‘preaching to the choir’ quotient is sky high here

    That day was plagued with dysfunction, I’ve had to mentally move on. Dwelling on it feels like a stalemate in chess.

  124. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bag of Pucks: The latter obviously. Why do you even have to ask the question?

    When a team is this successful, they should be studied for best practices that can be emulated.

    I was reading the other day about how NE has spent their most valuable draft picks/spent on FAs on the corner position.

    Apparently their analytics was one of the first to discover that most sacks are “coverage sacks”

    So spend on the secondary and pick “average NFLers” for the D-line and you’re ahead.

    Add to this that most NFL teams spend heavily on the Dline and at most have a most one high end guy in the secondary and its quite interesting.

    Note: not an NFL fan and mostly regurgitating what I read

  125. Bag of Pucks says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I was reading the other day about how NE has spent their most valuable draft picks/spent on FAs on the corner position.

    Apparently their analytics was one of the first to discover that most sacks are “coverage sacks”

    So spend on the secondary and pick “average NFLers” for the D-line and you’re ahead.

    Add to this that most NFL teams spend heavily on the Dline and at most have a most one high end guy in the secondary and its quite interesting.

    Note: not an NFL fan and mostly regurgitating what I read

    One thing they’re known for as well is the sheer number of data points they introduced into prospect evaluation. They went after big data and more importantly proprietary data. And they use it for cap efficiency and pro scouting too.

    A contribution to winning metric like WAR in baseball has to be the brass ring for NHL analytics. How else do you accurately forecast contract value?

  126. Turning Tikkanese says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Donskov also has strong connections to Mark Hunter as well. Hire Hunter and swoop in on Donskov as AGM before Vegas knows what hit em.

  127. hunter1909 says:

    Bag of Pucks: That day was plagued with dysfunction, I’ve had to mentally move on. Dwelling on it feels like a stalemate in chess.

    Sorry about that. I wasn’t supposed to be posting anymore this season, but the 1st round of the playoffs has piqued my interest in hockey more than the Oilers usually do.

    Stalemate in chess, lol

  128. jake70 says:

    Vladdy jr. comming up here in a minute. Too bad he isn’t in an Expos uniform. Man the hype, even in US media. |No pressure young one.

  129. Georgexs says:

    The 2003 draft had 9 rounds as opposed to the 7 rounds we’ve had since 2005.

    Notable selections in rounds 8 & 9 in that year:

    Player, GP, Points

    Tobias Enstrom, 719, 308

    Dustin Byfuglien, 869, 525

    Matt Moulson, 650, 369

    Jaroslav Halak, 489

    Brian Elliott, 441

    Would these players have gone undrafted if not for the 2 extra rounds?

    Byfuglien is 34 years old. He’s finished the 3rd year of a 5-year $38M contract. According to CF, his career earnings to date are over $58M. Halak’s over $36M. Elliott, the second last pick of the 9th round, has made over $19M in his career.

  130. hunter1909 says:

    jake70:
    Vladdy jr. comming up here in a minute. Too bad he isn’t in an Expos uniform. Man the hype, even in US media. |No pressure young one.

    If you can’t take the heat…

  131. hunter1909 says:

    Hurricanes look terrific.

  132. Scungilli Slushy says:

    RonnieB:
    According to Kurt Leavins in C of H, Mike Futa is still in the GM mix for Edmonton.

    Any opinions on him ?

    What have the Kings done in ages except fizzle out and not adapt?

    I know nothing about him but I think that team has been poorly run.

  133. OriginalPouzar says:

    Samorukov scores to give the Storm a 1-0 lead half way through the 2nd. Even strength goal.

  134. Glovjuice says:

    dustrock:
    Also LT referencing Grimes is not something I expected.

    Now THAT is one hot babe.

  135. OriginalPouzar says:

    and it was a beauty to boot:

    https://twitter.com/Storm_City/status/1121929048379330562

    He’s not just a big shot offensively!

  136. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Kassian is not a great player, but he is a rare one.

    How many players are big, fast, have enough skill to play decently up the lineup, are league top fighters, are junkyard dogs protecting teammates, are sober and well liked in the room?

    I’d keep him but if dealing there would be a premium on that sale.

  137. godot10 says:

    The Patriots are not really better or worse at drafting than most teams. They tend to have more picks, because they trade down a lot, and they accumulate supplementary picks because they mostly lose expensive free agents and sign cheap one.

    They have been mostly awful drafting receivers and corners,, so they have spender in free agency there,

    Ironically this year they have drafted a receiver and a corner.

    The receiver was not a reach.

    Receivers have trouble in New England since their offense is so complicated and pretty much every receiver has to be able to be X, Y, and Z in every formation, and sight adjustments on routes on the fly…in accord to how Brady expects the adjustment.

  138. nelson88 says:

    Samorukov with another goal on the power play. Kid is going full beast mode in the playoffs

  139. nelson88 says:

    Oilers now with the 1st and 2nd most point getters by D men in the OHL playoffs. And one of them is more known for his D. Could be one hell of a lefty – righty pairing in about 3 years

  140. oilsnc79 says:

    nelson88:
    Oilers now with the 1st and 2nd most point getters by D men in the OHL playoffs. And one of them is more known for his D. Could be one hell of a lefty – righty pairing in about 3 years

    Sammy has 3 points, 2 goal one assist with 4 shots.

  141. Reja says:

    Interesting Draft with all the High end talent coming from Yankee land I wonder how much they’re zooming each other. Which one is the dud which one exceeds with the Oilers glorious draft history I hope Cozens is still there at No 8

  142. OriginalPouzar says:

    Samorukov adds a primary assist and then a PP goal.

    2 goals and an assist after two periods as Guelph leads 3-0.

  143. OriginalPouzar says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    Kassian is not a great player, but he is a rare one.

    How many players are big, fast, have enough skill to play decently up the lineup, are league top fighters, are junkyard dogs protecting teammates, are sober and well liked in the room?

    I’d keep him but if dealing there would be a premium on that sale.

    Jujhar Khaira?

  144. OriginalPouzar says:

    and Samorukov with the hattrick early in the 3rd…..

  145. oilsnc79 says:

    Sammy scores 3rd goal … Go sam

  146. Bag of Pucks says:

    godot10:
    The Patriots are not really better or worse at drafting than most teams.They tend to have more picks, because they trade down a lot, and they accumulate supplementary picks because they mostly lose expensive free agents and sign cheap one.

    They have been mostly awful drafting receivers and corners,, so they have spender in free agency there,

    Ironically this year they have drafted a receiver and a corner.

    The receiver was not a reach.

    Receivers have trouble in New England since their offense is so complicated and pretty much every receiver has to be able to be X, Y, and Z in every formation, and sight adjustments on routes on the fly…in accord to how Brady expects the adjustment.

    Rob Gronkowski. Julian Edelman. Deon Branch. Troy Brown. Lawyer Milloy. Devin McCourty. Ty Law.

    Yeah, the Patriots are awful at drafting receivers and DBs. LOL I wish the Oilers were that “awful”

  147. OriginalPouzar says:

    and the hatty was the prettiest of them all – wow:

    https://twitter.com/Storm_City/status/1121941748626927616

  148. OriginalPouzar says:

    So, is 3G/1A plus 3 with 7 shots on net good for a d-man in a 4-0 win in an elimination game?

    Not to mention, top pairing match-ups – no goals against

  149. godot10 says:

    Bag of Pucks: Rob Gronkowski. Julian Edelman. Deon Branch. Troy Brown. Lawyer Milloy. Devin McCourty. Ty Law.

    Yeah, the Patriots are awful at drafting receivers and DBs. LOL I wish the Oilers were that “awful”

    Gronk is a TE. Edelman was a QB, who they developed into a receiver. McCauley has played safety most of his career. Malloy was a Safety, and both he an Law predated the Belichick era.

    Patriot first and second round and third round receiver busts

    Aaron Dobson
    Chad Jackson
    Bethel Johnson
    Brandon Tate
    Taylor Price

  150. Pescador says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    and the hatty was the prettiest of them all – wow:

    https://twitter.com/Storm_City/status/1121941748626927616

    Dynamite Samurai
    Hatty – 4pt night, wow

  151. tileguy says:

    I’m glady for Vlady.

  152. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I was reading the other day about how NE has spent their most valuable draft picks/spent on FAs on the corner position.

    Apparently their analytics was one of the first to discover that most sacks are “coverage sacks”

    So spend on the secondary and pick “average NFLers” for the D-line and you’re ahead.

    Add to this that most NFL teams spend heavily on the Dline and at most have a most one high end guy in the secondary and its quite interesting.

    Note: not an NFL fan and mostly regurgitating what I read

    It’s easy to say that when you have probably one of the best if not the best player of all time as qb. Last 10 years their offense is consistently top 5 but their defense isn’t at most of the time they were in bottom 1/3 of league in yards given up per game
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nwe/index.htm

  153. leadfarmer says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    The Raiders are a funny team.
    Still enjoy that they picked a Polish kicker in the first round
    They outsmarted everyone

  154. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – was fun to see vlaad (they need to get a better nickname for him- VGR? V-Gar, Vigor? I’ve got nuthin’

    – anyway between VGR and CMD my two favourite teams have a base to cheer

    – I’ve really liked what the Jays organization has done: they have a constraint the Oil don’t have though: as soon as the Jays aren’t good the have very little attendance.

    – The Oil still are top-5 grossing gate revenue. Like the Leafs fan base the Oil always buy tickets.

    – The pressure to win in order to make money for the Jays is a lot different than for the Oil.

  155. leadfarmer says:

    Beard of bees ties it up at 2
    San Jose going with the lean heavily on Jones strategy

  156. Westchester Oil says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – was fun to see vlaad (they need to get a better nickname for him- VGR?V-Gar, Vigor? I’ve got nuthin’

    – anyway between VGR and CMD my two favourite teams have a base to cheer

    – I’ve really liked what the Jays organization has done: they have a constraint the Oil don’t have though: as soon as the Jays aren’t good the have very little attendance.

    – The Oil still are top-5 grossing gate revenue. Like the Leafs fan basethe Oil always buy tickets.

    – The pressure to win in order to make money for the Jays is a lot different than for the Oil.

    The book ‘Scorecasting’ had a chapter on this subject with respect to the Chicago Cubs. They looked at the elasticity of attendance for different teams based on how many games each team won. Bottom line is that people went to Cubs games (presumably for the fan experience) whether or not they won, but their cross-town rivals, the White Sox needed to win to sell tickets. Therefore, there was little pressure for the Cubs to do what was necessary (e.g. find and pay good players, etc.) to win, hence a century of futility. The same could probably be said about the Leafs, and us, unfortunately.

    ‘Scorecasting’ is like ‘Freakonomics’ for sports. Highly recommended for those who like math and sports – e.g. Lowetidian nerds like us.

    P.S. there’s also a section on how the Patriots value picks and why they frequently trade down.

  157. Glovjuice says:

    Cassandra: That is an incredibly bad trade.Kadri has one of the best contracts in the NHL, and Dubas doesn’t seem the type to lose a value trade proposition, and even if he were he would get way more.

    You are also crazy if you think TB is going to trade JT Miller for Matt Benning.

    TB is going to trade Miller or Johnson, but they are going to get good stuff back in return, and Dubas isn’t going to trade Kadri, he’ll trade Zaitsev.

    None of these teams have cap problems because there players at the bottom of their deck have trade value.They’ll trade them for picks and reload.Now these picks might not be true value for the players they give up but they’ll be worth a lot more than the nothing you see above.

    Yeah, wow, I expect better from Godot. kadri for a 4 winger and 6-7 D. Seriously? Yikes.

  158. Kmart99 says:

    If there’s talk in Toronto around getting Adam Larsson in a trade, I wouldn’t be surprised if the main piece from Toronto’s end is Kadri.

    Both teams are selling low on the two players. Kadri is usually good for 20-30 goals and 50-60 points from the second line, but is going to have low trade value due to “controversy” surrounding his two playoff suspensions and his having a down year. Players with “attitude” problems or controversy surrounding them often get dealt for less.

    Not sure how the structure of that deal would end up, but Larsson fits a need for Toronto, and Kadri does the same for Edmonton.

    It looks bad as Hall for Kadri… but it’s classic Oilers.

  159. Glovjuice says:

    JimmyV1965: To be fair to the fans, the Reinhart and Hall trades were exceptionally bad. I wonder if they are the two worst trades in the NHL over the last decade.If the new GM simply refrains from shitting the bed, and maybe even wins a trade, he’ll become a living legend in this town. He’s lucky in the sense that the bar here is so frickin low even baseline competency will be cheered.

    They are the worst two trades in the last 20 years. Easily.

  160. slopitch says:

    Not gonna lie, Samakurov and Bouchard have me excited. Small samples and all we’d be excited by these samples for forwards! Hypothetically a Hurricanes vs Sharks final – what does that say about importance of dman in todays game? Would teams overreact? Getting value for Russel/Sekera would be choice!

    Interesting stuff WG re the Patriots and corners. Thx for posting that!

  161. Sierra says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Re: Donskov.

    More importantly, will he fit into Oilers culture?

  162. SVR says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yup, you nailed it – we are having the “same conversations” – looking back to have the same discussions regarding the mistakes that were made.Of course, we could have new conversations regarding the various ways the organization could move forward to get better – the risks of different paths, the potential rewards of patiance vs. such risks, etc…….

    Your right. Let’s talk about how Koskinen sucks, Malone hurts the team taking bad penalties, or how if we are patient for two years, the cap problems fix themselves and we have internal value contracts coming. Cause these are all new topics

  163. Glovjuice says:

    SVR: Your right. Let’s talk about how Koskinen sucks, Malone hurts the team taking bad penalties, or how if we are patient for two years, the cap problems fix themselves and we have internal value contracts coming. Cause these are all new topics

    Don’t bother, man. OP is too smart for you. You will lose. Trust me. Just wait.

  164. Kmart99 says:

    slopitch,

    I never watched Samorukov prior to these playoffs and he def looks impressive. Looking at the straight point totals though, his offense doesn’t seem as impressive as Ethan Bear or Caleb Jones in their Draft+2 seasons.

    Looks like a solid pick that has NHL games in his future, but is there actually legit hype around him ever becoming even a solid #4?

  165. Wilde says:

    Jaxon,

    Great work as usual.

    The incongruencies in ranking and scoring in NA that I’ve identified are the same as yours, the USNTDP squad and the age 17.0-17.2 CHL players + Bobby Brink.

    Turcotte seems to be underrated as a whole. There’s no way for me to justify Boldy or Zegras being a peer of his, but that ordering seems to happen in tons of lists.

    Europe is a mess, as usual. Dorofeyev or Höglander are going to be a steal for the Rangers when they use WPG’s pick on one of them.

  166. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kmart99:
    If there’s talk in Toronto around getting Adam Larsson in a trade, I wouldn’t be surprised if the main piece from Toronto’s end is Kadri.

    Both teams are selling low on the two players.Kadri is usually good for 20-30 goals and 50-60 points from the second line, but is going to have low trade value due to “controversy” surrounding his two playoff suspensions and his having a down year.Players with “attitude” problems or controversy surrounding them often get dealt for less.

    Not sure how the structure of that deal would end up, but Larsson fits a need for Toronto, and Kadri does the same for Edmonton.

    It looks bad as Hall for Kadri… but it’s classic Oilers.

    I’ve mentioned a few times recently that, if the Oilers are acquiring Kadri, its likely that Larsson is the main piece the Leafs want back. When viewing the two players in isolation, I believe that, yes, one for one, they have similar value and that could be the outline of trade. At the same time, given the Oilers need to add a top 4 RD, as many boxes as Kadri checks off, that outline does not work for the Oilers unless there are other deals/transactions ready to close that upgrade the top 4 RD.

    Kadri for Larsson is value each way, however it makes the Oilers worse (in isolation).

  167. OriginalPouzar says:

    SVR: Your right. Let’s talk about how Koskinen sucks, Malone hurts the team taking bad penalties, or how if we are patient for two years, the cap problems fix themselves and we have internal value contracts coming. Cause these are all new topics

    You mean actual players currently in the organization spoken about when they are playing actual games for the Oilers and conversation regarding how to move forward?

    Koskinen gets spoken about when his play on the ice has warranted it. Notice I’ve not mentioned Koskinen in months except in the context of being hopeful that he provided better play next year. I don’t just jump in and start talking about his massive slumps that have occurred.

    Malone was brought up only in the context of claiming Aberg off waivers (and similar type transactions) in order to put more bodies between him and the NHL as he’s proven not to be an NHL player (and he proved that again this year). Again, I don’t just bring up Brad Malone randomly although I do mention him quite often as he is a very good AHL player an very important to the Condors.

    Yup, the plan moving forward – seems pertinent.

  168. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kmart99:
    slopitch,

    I never watched Samorukov prior to these playoffs and he def looks impressive. Looking at the straight point totals though, his offense doesn’t seem as impressive as Ethan Bear or Caleb Jones in their Draft+2 seasons.

    Looks like a solid pick that has NHL games in his future, but is there actually legit hype around him ever becoming even a solid #4?

    Samorukov was drafted, not as a primary offensive player, but more of a two-way player with a focus on the defensive side of the game. Samorukov is a plus defender an aggressive defender who is also a great skater who has show high end puck moving skills along with great offensive instincts and a plus shot.

    He is more of an “all-tools” d-man than Bear or Jones or even Bouchard – he is plus in all the skills.

    Miles to go to see if he “makes it” but, to me, he’s got the top pairing ceiling more than any other d-man (Bouchard is more of a “sure thing” and will produce more offence, however, Samorukov has all the skills to potentially be the true 1D).

  169. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’ve mentioned a few times recently that, if the Oilers are acquiring Kadri, its likely that Larsson is the main piece the Leafs want back. When viewing the two players in isolation, I believe that, yes, one for one, they have similar value and that could be the outline of trade.At the same time, given the Oilers need to add a top 4 RD, as many boxes as Kadri checks off, that outline does not work for the Oilers unless there are other deals/transactions ready to close that upgrade the top 4 RD.

    Kadri for Larsson is value each way, however it makes the Oilers worse (in isolation).

    I would love to see Kadri and his contract on the Oilers but not on the price of a one for one for Larsson and his even better contract add in the fact that he’s 26 2-3 right shot D man with a nasty edge to him. I would hope Keith would get a better return if indeed Larsson is being shopped around.

  170. OriginalPouzar says:

    Finally the Condors back in action tonight after a long lay-off since Tuesday’s Dominant performance. Two chances to finish off the Eagles at home.

    Will Woodcroft dress 7D again or maybe just go with 6 and give Bouchard more of a regular shift?

    There is the possibility of using Day at forward (which they’ve done this year) and he c an move back if things are going off the rails.

  171. YKOil says:

    Without a new RHD acquired – a big ‘NO’ to Kadri for Larsson.

    In regards to talk about NE and their drafting (NFL), always keep top of mind that Belichek is the greatest coach of all time. I am certain he would have won some of those championships with a different quarterback from Brady, I cannot say with certainty that Brady would have won any without Belichek; certainly, they won more together.

  172. OriginalPouzar says:

    I don’t imagine that Larsson is being “shopped” by current management as much as he is a piece often brought up by opposing mangers when deals are being discussed – makes sense given how valuable top 4 right side d-men are and smart managers will realize that Larsson is coming off a down year and maybe they can by low on a very good player who is very likely to “regress” to historical norms.

  173. Wilde says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    I’ve been silently wanting to make this point for a while: No typified characteristics are going to lift Samorukov’s 1D potential above Bouchard’s.

    We must wonder what, say, Miro Heiskanen would have done to the OHL as a 19-year-old player.

    I think the characteristic-al makeup of a player provides only finite modifiers, or factors, that change the potential of a player by entering an equation with the essential traits that are their scoring and their observable, isolated effects on the outcomes of the games – and since they’re finite, there’s unbridgeable gaps, like there is between the likelihood of #1 and #2 overall picks’ ascent to stardom and everyone else.

    That being said, he actualised his value incredibly fast (when KG held court at TDL time) and I’ll take this moment to plug my credentials as a wall-shit-thrower by mentioning that I had a feeling about the player and said as much a year or more ago. Which is funny, but I might have been right. The reason I’m not going to bust out the catalogue of the rest of my correct takes is because a) it’s thin and b) I’ve put more thought into my incorrect ones, which says startling things about my, uh, thought economy.

  174. ArmchairGM says:

    Kmart99:
    If there’s talk in Toronto around getting Adam Larsson in a trade, I wouldn’t be surprised if the main piece from Toronto’s end is Kadri.

    Both teams are selling low on the two players.Kadri is usually good for 20-30 goals and 50-60 points from the second line, but is going to have low trade value due to “controversy” surrounding his two playoff suspensions and his having a down year.Players with “attitude” problems or controversy surrounding them often get dealt for less.

    Not sure how the structure of that deal would end up, but Larsson fits a need for Toronto, and Kadri does the same for Edmonton.

    It looks bad as Hall for Kadri… but it’s classic Oilers.

    Two issues with this: Larsson also fits a need in Edmonton; and Toronto getting Larsson back for Kadri isn’t “selling low”.

  175. Kmart99 says:

    ArmchairGM,

    Kadri for Larsson one for one does not equate to selling low on Kadri, but there is no doubt that Kadri’s actual trade value is low atm. Whether or not a team takes advantage of that is a different story.

    Toronto is surely interested in getting rid of Kadri with all his “attitude” problems, which should affect their ability to command a strong return.

    To suggest that Kadri for Larsson is a terrible deal for the Oilers is to really over value Larsson’s effectiveness. Larsson one for one for Hall was a disaster. Larsson one for one Kadri makes more sense. Maybe Kadri+cond pick.

    The fact that Benning, Bouchard, Persson, Bear, and Kesselring are the only righties in the organization is the real fear. To deal Larsson for Kadri when our RHD is so shallow would hurt.

  176. Professor Q says:

    YKOil,

    If Belichick had Rodgers or Brees, or even if he coached Green Bay or New Orleans after completing his blossoming in Cleveland, I think that they also win around 6.

    Maybe the secret is Two-Name Towns?

  177. Jethro Tull says:

    Kmart99,

    Toronto is interested in shopping Kadri the same way Boston is of Marchand and the Flames Tkachuk.

  178. Kmart99 says:

    I’ve been following Tyson Jost, Sam Steel, and Tyler Benson for quite some time now, as Im sure most of you have. Maybe you remember when Sam Steel and Tyler Benson were both 13-14 years old and junior scouts and coaches were drawing pretty lofty comparisons to the likes of Tavares.

    Looking back at the 2016 draft Jost went 10th, Steel went 30th, and Benson 32nd. I’d contend at this point that Benson and Steel should have been drafted in the 10-15 range and have pretty much past all the forwards drafted ahead of them outside of the top 7.

    Excited to see Benson play tonight, and very excited to see him next season. I won’t be surprised one bit if he plays the whole year with Edmonton and puts up 5-10G and 25-30A as a 22yr old rookie. It sucks to think about how poorly JP has been handled, but Benson’s development take away some of the sting.

  179. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wilde:
    OriginalPouzar,

    I’ve been silently wanting to make this point for a while: No typified characteristics are going to lift Samorukov’s 1D potential above Bouchard’s.

    We must wonder what, say, Miro Heiskanen would have done to the OHL as a 19-year-old player.

    I think the characteristic-al makeup of a player provides only finite modifiers, or factors, that change the potential of a player by entering an equation with the essential traits that are their scoring and their observable, isolated effects on the outcomes of the games – and since they’re finite, there’s unbridgeable gaps, like there is between the likelihood of #1 and #2 overall picks’ ascent to stardom and everyone else.

    That being said, he actualised his value incredibly fast (when KG held court at TDL time) and I’ll take this moment to plug my credentials as a wall-shit-thrower by mentioning that I had a feeling about the player and said as much a year or more ago. Which is funny, but I might have been right. The reason I’m not going to bust out the catalogue of the rest of my correct takes is because a) it’s thin and b) I’ve put more thought into my incorrect ones, which says startling things about my, uh, thought economy.

    I don’t know what it is – maybe its the 2 hours sleep and the fact I’ve already put i 3.5 hours of work on this Saturday morning (and its not yet 7:30 am) but I don’t really understand your post.

    All I’m really saying is that, while Bouchard is clearly the higher rated prospect who is closer to the NHL, has a higher offensive ceiling and is more of the “can’t miss” variety than Samorukov, I thing the aggregate skill-set of Samorukov provides more of a true 1D potential.

    He has some skills that Bouchard simply doesn’t have including high end skating and plus defending (at this point) with aggressiveness.

    Bouchard will never be an “all tools 1D” but he will almost assuredly be a top 4 D, probably top pairing D, and high offensive producer.

    Samorukov may never make it in the NHL but, at the same time, he has the potential to be a true 1D.

    At least in my opinion.

  180. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kmart99:
    ArmchairGM,

    Kadri for Larsson one for one does not equate to selling low on Kadri, but there is no doubt that Kadri’s actual trade value is low atm.Whether or not a team takes advantage of that is a different story.

    Toronto is surely interested in getting rid of Kadri with all his “attitude” problems, which should affect their ability to command a strong return.

    To suggest that Kadri for Larsson is a terrible deal for the Oilers is to really over value Larsson’s effectiveness.Larsson one for one for Hall was a disaster.Larsson one for one Kadri makes more sense.Maybe Kadri+cond pick.

    The fact that Benning, Bouchard, Persson, Bear, and Kesselring are the only righties in the organization is the real fear.To deal Larsson for Kadri when our RHD is so shallow would hurt.

    1) There may be a perceived low value on Kadri right now but that doesn’t mean that Dubas and the Leafs are going to sell low on him. There has been alot of talk about him being moved but its all rumor and speculation by the media, blogging community and fans. Has the Leaf organization mentioned anything with regards to this?

    2) I believe the Larsson and Kadri have fairly similar value, however, at the same time, as much as Kadri could help this team, in isolation, removing Larsson from the team and adding Kadri makes the team worse in my opinion.

    I would suggest you try and put together a starting 6 among the current incumbents without Larsson and see where you get to.

  181. Kmart99 says:

    Jethro Tull,

    Kadri has drawn the ire of the fans, coach, and Toronto media in back to back seasons.
    Do you really not think there’s a, albeit dumb, desire to move Kadri out of that dressing room?

    Why do you think players like Hall, Hoffman, E Kane, Kessel, Eberle, Seguin etc.. get moved in one sided trades? ‘Attitude’ and ‘controversy’.

    It’s not controversial to say that players who are labelled as having a bad attitude and creating a bad atmosphere in the dressing room get moved in deals that are largely favourable to the teams acquiring them. It’s just a fact that Kadri is in that same category right now.

    For the record, I’m not endorsing a Kadri for Larsson deal. I’m just speculating that if there’s a deal between Edmonton and Toronto for Larsson that does indeed happen, Kadri is the main piece that Edmonton will get. Mainly because it is in line with past decision making for this management.

  182. Ari says:

    (In)Credible.

    Does Parkatti still do work for the Oil?

    Woodguy v2.0: It’s actually even worse than “EDM has Ek next’

    Before the draft Mike Parkatti gave a presentation to management on “good players who drop in the draft and why”

    He showed that very good player drop because of 4 reasons:

    -they’re short
    -they’re injured in their draft year
    -they get way more assists than goals
    -they’re Russian (no shit, that’s the 4th reason)

    He pointed out that Barzal had been consistently the 2nd best Canadian in his age group since he was quite young (behind McDavid obv)

    Mike told them he expected him to drop because he fulfilled 3 of the 4 most common reasons why great players drop in a draft.

    Barzal had projected like a top 3 pick in most drafts for most of his hockey career until he got hurt in his draft and if by some small chance that Barzal dropped to them, it behooved them to run up and grab him.

    No shit.

    That actually happened.

    Then Pete did what Pete did on draft day.

  183. Glovjuice says:

    OriginalPouzar: Samorukov was drafted, not as a primary offensive player, but more of a two-way player with a focus on the defensive side of the game. Samorukov is a plus defender an aggressive defender who is also a great skater who has show high end puck moving skills along with great offensive instincts and a plus shot.

    He is more of an “all-tools” d-man than Bear or Jones or even Bouchard – he is plus in all the skills.

    Miles to go to see if he “makes it” but, to me, he’s got the top pairing ceiling more than any other d-man (Bouchard is more of a “sure thing” and will produce more offence, however, Samorukov has all the skills to potentially be the true 1D).

    Agreed, after I saw ONE play from him (that back/side peddle from his circle across the front of his net followed by a stretch pass) I became sure of him being at least a 2 of 6 D.

  184. Kmart99 says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    The Leafs organization hasn’t mentioned anything about moving Kadri, no. The Oilers organization also never mentioned moving Hall.

    Stauffer, the closest media guy to the Oil, repeatedly brought it up though in a transparent attempt to preemptively soften the blow for fans. Leads media insiders doing the same thing is all I need to think
    there’s at least discussions going on. Maybe the deal doesn’t happen, but we don’t need a player to publicly ask for a trade, or for Elliotte Friedman to announce a potential deal, in order to speculate.

  185. Kmart99 says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    I don’t understand the knock on Bouchard’s skating honestly. I watched roughly 20 of his games this season and the guy is a speed demon. His straight line speed is NHL level. He constantly wins 50/50 races pulls away from players chasing him.

  186. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kmart99:
    OriginalPouzar,

    The Leafs organization hasn’t mentioned anything about moving Kadri, no.The Oilers organization also never mentioned moving Hall.

    Stauffer, the closest media guy to the Oil, repeatedly brought it up though in a transparent attempt to preemptively soften the blow for fans.Leads media insiders doing the same thing is all I need to think
    there’s at least discussions going on. Maybe the deal doesn’t happen, but we don’t need a player to publicly ask for a trade, or for Elliotte Friedman to announce a potential deal, in order to speculate.

    You nailed it in your last paragraph – “in order to speculate” – absolutely, we can speculate about him being available and even the Leafs actively shopping him, however, it is exactly that, speculation.

    I maybe was inferring something that wasn’t implied, but I inferred from your initial posts that you were certain that the Leafs will be moving him and he is actively being shopped (as opposed to speculating that is likely the case).

  187. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kmart99:
    OriginalPouzar,

    I don’t understand the knock on Bouchard’s skating honestly.I watched roughly 20 of his games this season and the guy is a speed demon.His straight line speed is NHL level.He constantly wins 50/50 races pulls away from players chasing him.

    I wasn’t knocking Bouchard’s skating, I was commending Samorukov’s skating.

    Sure, when Bouch gets going, he has nice straight line speed, however, his skating isn’t in the same ball-park as Samorukov’s – the edges, the transition from forwards to backwards and back, the acceleration, etc. Bouch has some nice straightline speed but he isn’t a plus skater. Samorukov is a plus skater.

  188. Wilde says:

    OriginalPouzar: I don’t know what it is – maybe its the 2 hours sleep and the fact I’ve already put i 3.5 hours of work on this Saturday morning (and its not yet 7:30 am) but I don’t really understand your post.

    I was being a dink about it

    OriginalPouzar: I thing the aggregate skill-set of Samorukov provides more of a true 1D potential.

    This is what I disagree with, and the disagreement is on a conceptual level.

    As in, no matter what ‘skill-set’ Samurkov has, no matter how balanced and weakness-less it is, there’s no way to bridge the gap between the scoring and goalshare data of the two.

    OriginalPouzar:
    Bouchard will never be an “all tools 1D” but he will almost assuredly be a top 4 D, probably top pairing D, and high offensive producer.

    Samorukov may never make it in the NHL but, at the same time, he has the potential to be a true 1D.

    In addition, I think the floor-ceiling argument (as it’s deployed here) is only applicable for players that are very close in the hard metrics, of past performance, that we know are the most predictive.

    The risk-reward paradigm of acquisitions is to my estimation usually just a gamble on whether or not your coaching staff will accept a player or not.

  189. Bag of Pucks says:

    godot10: Gronk is a TE.Edelman was a QB, who they developed into a receiver.McCauley has played safety most of his career.Malloy was a Safety, and both he an Law predated the Belichick era.

    Patriot first and second round and third round receiver busts

    Aaron Dobson
    Chad Jackson
    Bethel Johnson
    Brandon Tate
    Taylor Price

    Asante Samuel. Malcolm Butler.

    Gronk caught passes. That makes him a receiver. Your original statement didn’t specify wide receivers. And if it had, Deion Branch was a Super Bowl MVP. And Edelman is 2nd only to Jerry Rice in playoff receptions. What does it matter that Edelman played QB in college? Do you honestly think they drafted him to replace Brady and lucked into a receiver. They drafted him to return kicks and catch footballs ala Wes Walker.

    Further on receivers, the Patriots are exceptional in acquiring marginal producers on other teams and turning them into highly productive roster contributors (Welker, Amendola, Hogan, etc.)

    You don’t win 6 Super Bowls without being exceptional at drafting and replenishing the roster. The QB alone doesn’t do it. If he did, Dan Marino would have 5 rings instead of 0.

  190. godot10 says:

    ArmchairGM: Two issues with this: Larsson also fits a need in Edmonton; and Toronto getting Larsson back for Kadri isn’t “selling low”.

    Toronto is the team in deeper cap hell than the Oilers. So there is no way the Oilers should make a “fair” hockey deal with the Leafs. Hockey wise, the OIlers should get an edge to compensate for the cap relief the Oilers would be providing the Leafs.

    Right D is a huge need for the Leafs. So Kadri for Larsson would be a huge win for them. It would be helping them solve their cap problem and hockey problem without exacting a “commission” or “premium” for that.

  191. godot10 says:

    Bag of Pucks: Asante Samuel. Malcolm Butler.

    Gronk caught passes. That makes him a receiver. Your original statement didn’t specify wide receivers. And if it had, Deion Branch was a Super Bowl MVP. And Edelman is 2nd only to Jerry Rice in playoff receptions. What does it matter that Edelman played QB in college? Do you honestly think they drafted him to replace Brady and lucked into a receiver. They drafted him to return kicks and catch footballs ala Wes Walker.

    Further on receivers, the Patriots are exceptional in acquiring marginal producers on other teams and turning them into highly productive roster contributors (Welker, Amendola, Hogan, etc.)

    You don’t win 6 Super Bowls without being exceptional at drafting and replenishing the roster. The QB alone doesn’t do it. If he did, Dan Marino would have 5 rings instead of 0.

    Samuel was a 4th round draft pick. Butler was an undrafted free agent. Those are players Belichick develop.

    By busts, I mean high drafts, first two rounds, or 3rd round, who should make it, but don’t

    High drafted corners of the Patriots who busted.

    Cyrus Jones.
    Ras-I Dowling
    Darius Butler

    McCourty turned into an eltie safety, after playing only a couple of years at corner.

    In the Belichick era, corners and receivers have been developed from lower round picks or free agents, or acquired by trade or free agency.

    The Patriots strength in drafting is has been more on both lines, linebackers, TE’s, running backs, and safeties.

    It will be interesting this year, because they had great need at receiver, and they drafted one in the first round.

    The had great need at tight end, and teams just kept drafting tight ends before them in round two and three. I expect they will try trading for an established TE this summer. Ben Watson said he was going to unretire. Maybe they sign him. Maybe they convince Martellus Bennett to unretire.

  192. Bag of Pucks says:

    godot10,

    Not unexpected with a football topic, but it seems you’re moving the goalposts now that I’ve provided enough examples to show that the blanket statement ‘the Patriots suck at drafting receivers and corners’ is untenable.

    I agree they are better at drafting the other positions you’ve mentioned but though less frequently, they’ve also found gold at receiver and corner. Belichick loves the mismatches a good TE creates in the passing game, so you’re probably right in saying they’re still on the hunt there too,

    Ideally you want those players to come from the highest picks, but the key is getting them somewhere in the draft. The Oilers have been middling at the top of the draft and atrocious outside the first round. It’s a perfect recipe for suck.

  193. Old Timer says:

    Would Kadri be a good target for the Oilers this spring/summer?

    From my perspective he is a slime ball but, the Oilers need this type of player to rile the opposition and he has the ability to check an opposing centre effectively.

    What are your thoughts?

  194. Lowetide says:

    Old Timer:
    Would Kadri be a good target for the Oilers this spring/summer?

    From my perspective he is a slime ball but, the Oilers need this type of player to rile the opposition and he has the ability to check an opposing centre effectively.

    What are your thoughts?

    I think Nuge is already in his spot. Like Kadri, and he has an edge Edmonton could use, but Nuge fills the role.

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