The Ghosts of Saturday Night (After Hours at Napoleone’s Pizza House)

The Bakersfield Condors dispatched Colorado last night and are on to National City and the San Diego Gulls. Tyler Benson and Evan Bouchard were part of the solution and will be needed against Dallas Eakins and his birds of a different feather. Next stop: The Pacific Ocean.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group.INSANE NEW OFFER IS HERE!

  • New Lowetide: ‘I see something special’: Are Oilers prepared to make Caleb Jones a fixture on the roster next season?
  • New Jonathan Willis: Gritty comeback performance sends Edmonton’s farm team to the second round of the AHL playoffs.
  • New Lowetide: Dylan Cozens might be ideal fit for Oilers at No. 8 overall in the 2019 draft
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Hard to please, but easy to work for’: How Sean Burke’s philosophy as a GM would benefit the Oilers.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: A dogged realist, Kelly McCrimmon’s resume makes him an attractive candidate for the Oilers GM job
  • New Lowetide: Is this the season the Oilers take the plunge and draft a USHL player in the first round?
  • Jonathan Willis: Top Oilers prospect Evan Bouchard stars in his first AHL game as Condors dominate.
  • Lowetide: Adam Larsson’s importance to the Oilers and why trading him is a bad idea.
  • Lowetide: Tyler Benson’s comparables offer Oilers fans plenty of hope for the future.
  • Lowetide: Making the call on the Oilers’ RFAs with a new general manager on the way.
  • Lowetide: Red Wings front office shuffle could impact Oilers’ future.
  • Jonathan Willis: Potential coaching candidates and why the Oilers don’t need to rush the GM search to get one
  • Lowetide: What would Glen Sather do with these Oilers?
  • Jonathan Willis: Some creative solutions to address the Oilers’ goalie problem
  • Lowetide: The Milan Lucic saga rolls into Year 4 for Oilers with no easy answers
  • Jonathan Willis: Who stays and who goes? An early projection of which players will remain on the Oilers’ roster in 2019-20
  • LowetideHow high can these Condors fly?
  • Lowetide: The Oilers possible summer trade pieces, and which longtime players might be saying goodbye.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ten prospects likely to be available when the Oilers make their first-round pick.

CONDORS THROUGH

Tyler Benson grabbed a couple of assists and Brad Malone went 1-2-3 in last night’s win, as the absolutely filthy Colorado Eagles finally saw their season end. Evan Bouchard scored a huge goal early in the third period and it sparked a four-goal outburst for the Condors. Cooper Marody suffered an injury courtesy former Oilers’ farmhand Kale Kessy, and that may impact the next series.

The experience all of these prospects are getting this spring has been previously unavailable to Condors prospects. Hopefully it will be a springboard for those who are close or ready (Caleb Jones, etc) and help the players who have some distance to go shorten the journey.

LOWETIDE 110 FOR 2019

I follow the draft closely and the U18 tournament winding up today in Sweden is the last big chance for kids to move up in the rankings. That has been the tradition for many years but this spring it’s the American kids who are moving up (in my opinion).

You’ll notice players like Trevor Zigras, Cole Caufield and Matthew Boldy sliding up on my list, my suspicion is they’ll move even higher on lists like Bob McKenzie. As an example, BM had Caufield No. 18 on the mid-season list, and if I’m reading the tea leaves correctly this young scorer will land near or inside the top 10 on final lists. That isn’t merely a ‘saw him good’ eye test, Caufield is breaking records with his rampant scoring.

European players will become more prominent on my list between now and June 1, when the list gets put to bed. When the lottery placed the Oilers at No. 8, my belief was the team was just outside the top tier. Now, with the possibility that Caufield, Zegras and Boldy could join Hughes and Turcotte inside the top 10, Edmonton may get a player like Dylan Cozens (wrote about him at The Athletic, link above) or even one of those USHL wizards who have created such a stir.

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165 Responses to "The Ghosts of Saturday Night (After Hours at Napoleone’s Pizza House)"

  1. Todd Macallan says:

    Yes Tom Waits!

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    Damn Benson was good last night and even after he took a few good knocks early – great sign.

    His pass on Callaghan’s goal was magnificent – Drai level sauce.

  3. OriginalPouzar says:

    Here is hoping Bouch can get some real minutes as the playoffs go on.

  4. Bulging Twine says:

    This Zegras fellow has me puzzled trying to figure out what he is.

    Would you say that his ceiling is higher than Krebs and his floor is lower?

  5. Bulging Twine says:

    Do we know what Marody’s injury is?

  6. Bulging Twine says:

    Oh Canada US on now

    Cheap interference call on Canada

  7. Glovjuice says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Damn Benson was good last night and even after he took a few good knocks early – great sign.

    His pass on Callaghan’s goal was magnificent – Drai level sauce.

    I have been converted on Bouchard’s skating – not a plus edge-wise etc. but fast enough straight ahead which will enable him becoming at worst a 3 of 6 D in the NHL. Can Benson skate well enough to become at least a 8 of 12 forward ?

  8. Jethro Tull says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Here is hoping Bouch can get some real minutes as the playoffs go on.

    He’s being used perfectly….

  9. Bulging Twine says:

    3 straight, quick penalties on Canada

    I”ve only been watching a few minutes and they have three penalties. All questionable calls

  10. Glovjuice says:

    Jethro Tull: He’s being used perfectly….

    He is. Agreed. Maybe the next Oil coach is right under our noses killing the AHL with a young team. To me, it’s playing out like the last awesome AHL coach we had. We needed to grab him before he left but many wanted to see more before he was given the job.

  11. Lowetide says:

    Bulging Twine:
    This Zegras fellow has me puzzled trying to figure out what he is.

    Would you say that his ceiling is higher than Krebs and his floor is lower?

    Very skilled, good speed, excellent passer, he’s a guy who should pass more not less. Difficult to evaluate in tournaments that also include Hughes, but he’s a dynamic player with top-end skill.

  12. v4ance says:

    Patrick C @ChunkletsHockey

    More Patrick C Retweeted СЭ Хоккей
    #KHL: Per Sport Express, Ak Bars Kazan have traded forward Jiří Sekáč to CSKA Moscow for the rights to Toronto Maple Leafs D Igor Ozhiganov, rumoured to be returning to the KHL this off-season.

    Knowing this, Toronto will be looking for 4 D to fill their roster with Hainsey, Marincin and Gardiner all leaving as UFA

  13. Jethro Tull says:

    Glovjuice: He is. Agreed. Maybe the next Oil coach is right under our noses killing the AHL with a young team. To me, it’s playing out like the last awesome AHL coach we had. We needed to grab him before he left but many wanted to see more before he was given the job.

    Nelson was never getting the job as soon as MacT joined him on the bench as an overseer. I’m sure it was done with good intentions, bit as with many other things the Oilers do, coupled with their lack of anything close to introspection, the optics looked terrible.

    They thought: Let’s not throw Todd to the wolves, Craig can support him and take some flack.

    What it actually looked like: We don’t trust this guy to run the plays in the bigs.

  14. Bulging Twine says:

    Cozens giving the puck away on the PP with regularity

    Brody – good vision. good shiftiness.

  15. McNuge93 says:

    Glovjuice: He is. Agreed. Maybe the next Oil coach is right under our noses killing the AHL with a young team. To me, it’s playing out like the last awesome AHL coach we had. We needed to grab him before he left but many wanted to see more before he was given the job.

    Ya,its starting to look like a possibility. Too bad he has just one year of head coaching experience. One more year would give us a better idea. But, he was kind of scapegoated for the Oilers poor special teams the previous year. Was that justified? And how do the Condors special teams rank and who coaches them?

    After seeing both McLelland and Hitch deliver mediocre results I was kind of opening up to the idea of a younger more innovative coach.. Oh wait, we tried that a few years ago didn’t we.

  16. Glovjuice says:

    Wow, just saw the Napoleons pizza house reference. Before that was called Columbas Steak and a Pizza. They did, in my opinion, the best menu offered pizza ever in the Edmonton area – their mighty beef, onion, mushroom, and feta. Close seconds are the stunning pepperoni, mushroom, and garlic from Parkallen Restaurant, ham and mushroom from Flamingo steak and pizza, and also Salami, mushroom and any veggie from Dallas steak and pizza.

  17. Oilman99 says:

    Glovjuice: I have been converted on Bouchard’s skating – not a plus edge-wise etc. but fast enough straight ahead which will enable him becoming at worst a 3 of 6 D in the NHL. Can Benson skate well enough to become at least a 8 of 12 forward ?

    If there is a question regarding Benson’s skating I can assure you he will address it in the off season, he is that committed.

  18. Pescador says:

    McNuge93: Ya,its starting to look like a possibility. Too bad he has just one year of head coaching experience. One more year would give us a better idea. But, he was kind of scapegoated for the Oilers poor special teams the previous year. Was that justified? And how do the Condors special teams rank and who coaches them?

    After seeing both McLelland and Hitch deliver mediocre results I was kind of opening up to the idea of a younger moreinnovative coach.. Oh wait, we tried that a few years ago didn’t we.

    Let’s get one thing straight
    Eakins is & was a total wank.
    But there is no system or innovation that could have overcome the roster Eakins had at his disposal
    IMO he poisoned the well on Taylor Hall
    Fuck that guy

  19. Glovjuice says:

    Oilman99: If there is a question regarding Benson’s skating I can assure you he will address it in the off season, he is that committed.

    Good stuff. Just playing a full year is a massive success.

  20. dustrock says:

    Not convinced on Cozens’ vision, not convinced on Krebs or Dach scoring rates.

  21. Ben says:

    From a songwriting perspective, Heart of Saturday Night is probably his best record, straight up (along with Nighthawks maybe).

    The Benson pick was a risky one–he seemed destined for Pubitis Island for awhile there. Admirable dedication from the player to get back on track.

    I think Bouchard is Justin Schultz. And that’s a valuable asset if you don’t go all Norris-potential on him.

  22. Bryan says:

    Woodcroft has definitely increased his profile with the job he has done this season in Bake. It just shows that it is hard to know who an assistant coach really is as everything runs through the head coach. I hope the new GM will at least give him the courtesy of an interview as well as Todd Ne,son and Rocky Thompson and any other bright young minds out there.

  23. Glovjuice says:

    Ben:
    From a songwriting perspective, Heart of Saturday Night is probably his best record, straight up (along with Nighthawks maybe).

    The Benson pick was a risky one–he seemed destined for Pubitis Island for awhile there. Admirable dedication from the player to get back on track.

    I think Bouchard is Justin Schultz. And that’s a valuable asset if you don’t go all Norris-potential on him.

    Agreed mostly, but Bouchard is a great passer – Shultz is not.

  24. Bryan says:

    Pescador: Let’s get one thing straight
    Eakins is & was a total wank.
    But there is no system or innovation that could have overcome the roster Eakins had at his disposal
    IMO he poisoned the well on Taylor Hall
    Fuck that guy

    Agreed. I am not a vengeful person but I hope the Condors mop the the ice with San Diego.

  25. Wilde says:

    Pescador,

    I don’t think Hall reacts the way he did in ’16 if the well was poisoned years prior

  26. alberta bound edmonton says:

    Caulfield would look great with Conner. The question is “Will he be there at 8?”
    Answer: not likely. Would you draft him at 8th?

  27. oilersfan says:

    Schultz was an elite skater with a good wrist shot but poor vision and average passing ability especially on breakouts, and poor defensive awareness. He was also very skinny

    Bouchard is an average skater but is an excellent passer with an almost elite shot. He is thicker naturally and when he learns how to be better defensively his defensive ceiling is likely higher than Schultz’s.

  28. JimmyV1965 says:

    When I think of Eakins I think of the water bottle incident and how he handled it. Then I think of Bednar and the MacKinnon incident this year and how he handled it. Says a lot about the coaches. Maybe Eakins has grown since then.

  29. Bag of Pucks says:

    Glovjuice:
    Wow, just saw the Napoleons pizza house reference. Before that was called Columbas Steak and a Pizza. They did, in my opinion, the best menu offered pizza ever in the Edmonton area – their mighty beef, onion, mushroom, and feta. Close seconds are the stunning pepperoni, mushroom, and garlic from Parkallen Restaurant, ham and mushroom from Flamingo steak and pizza, and also Salami, mushroom and any veggie from Dallas steak andpizza.

    Zambellis on the west end does a very nice pizza. Perfect crust and they don’t skimp on the sauce and cheese like so many joints do now. Always felt family owned restaurants do the best za. It’s the dough!

  30. Bag of Pucks says:

    Tyler Benson is going to fill a massive Top 6 hole for this club next season.

    What a wonderful story for this young man.

    Would be great to see him find excellent chemistry with Nuge. Having a consistent talented W is just what the doctor ordered to try and keep Nuge in the fold. And wins of course. More wins for RNH!

  31. Bag of Pucks says:

    The only player that spoke well of Eakins after he left was his hand-picked captain, Andrew Ference.

    That spoke volumes how the little tyrant was viewed in the room.

    Would love to see the Condors knock his team out and send hairspray to the golf course. Or more likely the velodrome for that joyless prick.

  32. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Ben:
    From a songwriting perspective, Heart of Saturday Night is probably his best record, straight up (along with Nighthawks maybe).

    The Benson pick was a risky one–he seemed destined for Pubitis Island for awhile there. Admirable dedication from the player to get back on track.

    I think Bouchard is Justin Schultz. And that’s a valuable asset if you don’t go all Norris-potential on him.

    I think there is more potential with Bouch. He has a bomb and a great wrist shot. Schultz has a bit of a muffin. S is probably a better skater at this point. Not sure how to compare on defensive coverage yet.
    I hope he plucks off the vine soon…

  33. Bulging Twine says:

    dustrock:
    Not convinced on Cozens’ vision, not convinced on Krebs or Dach scoring rates.

    Same on Cozens. He’s a bit of a head down and drive type player which is fine but may limit his ability to maximize his teammates and can lead to turnovers when he tries to do it all himself.
    My not be awesome on the PP at the pro level

    But there is a lot to like about Cozens
    shot, skating, size, etc

  34. Reja says:

    Bag of Pucks: Zambellis on the west end does a very nice pizza. Perfect crust and they don’t skimp on the sauce and cheese like so many joints do now. Always felt family owned restaurants do the best za. It’s the dough!

    Victoria pizza in the west end and Rosebowl pizza downtown had some mighty fine pie back in the day when the Oilers were rolling.

  35. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jethro Tull: He’s being used perfectly….

    He is being highly sheltered – if you agree that is perfectly, then yes.

    There is a definite argument for such deployment, however, at the same time, it limits the information the organization can gain.

  36. Ben says:

    alberta bound edmonton:
    Caulfield would look great with Conner. The question is “Will he be there at 8?”
    Answer: not likely. Would you draft him at 8th?

    Caufield being gone by 8 would be fantastic news.

    Love this kind of draft, with so little consensus on order from about 3-12. Depending who’s left, Oilers could move back a couple of spots, pick up another 2nd rounder and still get a quality offensive player.

  37. Reja says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    The only player that spoke well of Eakins after he left was his hand-picked captain, Andrew Ference.

    That spoke volumes how the little tyrant was viewed in the room.

    Would love to see the Condors knock his team out and send hairspray to the golf course. Or more likely the velodrome for that joyless prick.

    Anybody that ban’s Doughnuts is a power tripper in a bad bad way.

  38. Bulging Twine says:

    Another note on Cozens.
    He is pretty powerful at his level and seeing him in his interview he looks like he could add quite a bit of weight. Should translate to a strong player when he becomes a man.

  39. Jethro Tull says:

    OriginalPouzar: He is being highly sheltered – if you agree that is perfectly, then yes.

    There is a definite argument for such deployment, however, at the same time, it limits the information the organization can gain.

    I’m curious…..I believe you are a proponent of “over-ripening” prospects.

    Why do you not believe this should be happening with the transition from junior to pro?

    As on Earth as it is in heaven……

  40. buck yoakam says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    being a musician in big e we always flocked after hours to either Royal pizza ( the original south of white ave ) or Pharaoh’s beside the garneau theatre….

  41. Marc says:

    Bob Stauffer
    ‏Verified account @Bob_Stauffer
    10m10 minutes ago

    Canada loses 5-2 to USA at U-18.
    Yesterday Canada got screwed on some double-standard calls vs host Sweden.
    Today the U.S. was just way better, earned the 4PPG.
    Totally agree with @CraigJButton 5 Amercian FWDS will go in top 10:
    Hughes, Turcotte, Zegras, Caufield, Boldy

    According to Bob Mackenzie at the beginning of April : ‘Hughes and Kakko are clearly the top two prospects in this year’s draft — like Hughes at No. 1, Kakko got 10 out of 10 votes at No. 2 — but Russian winger Vasili Podkolzin actually makes it more of a Big Three. Eight of 10 scouts had Podkolzin at No. 3 and there appears to be some separation between the top three and the rest of the class.’

    He then says: ‘If the margins between Hughes and Kakko at Nos. 1 and 2 were razor thin, so too were the differences between the top three Canadians in the draft. There is little separating Dach, Cozens and Byram at Nos. 4, 5 and 6.’

    I’m guessing that Turcotte, Zegras, Caufield and Boldy round out the top ten.

    There are going to be three good players when the Oilers pick. Which players they are will depend on which hockey scout trends/prejudices win out. They tend to be swayed by both recency and small sample size tournaments, which could push the USNDT players up at the expense of Dach, Cozens and Byram.

    On the other hand, the most common player type to get drafted higher than expected by far is a big, scoring centre that could be a 1C – see Barkov, Dubois, Kotkaniemi, Hayton etc. This could keep Dach and Cozens in the top five and push down Podkolzin, Byram and the USNDT players.

  42. slopitch says:

    OriginalPouzar: He is being highly sheltered – if you agree that is perfectly, then yes.

    There is a definite argument for such deployment, however, at the same time, it limits the information the organization can gain.

    Or its telling that he needs 40+ ahl games. Which is fine or preferable , oilers can try Lagesson, Bear, Persson and Jones in the 5-7 slot. I like adding Barrie this year to give Bouchard lots of time to grow his game in the ahl. I can just see the oilers 6 games in and no pp goals rushing Bouchard. It would need to be a hockey trade though – oilers arent deep enough to be able to spend assets of a ufa who might leave. Its also debateable whether spending assets on d is the best play right now. Just suggesting that having a pp option would prevent the oilers from being oilers and rushing him.

    Of course a deep playoff run where Bouchard plays big minutes is best case. Sheltering just means give him more time.

  43. Pescador says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    The only player that spoke well of Eakins after he left was his hand-picked captain, Andrew Ference.

    That spoke volumes how the little tyrant was viewed in the room.

    Would love to see the Condors knock his team out and send hairspray to the golf course. Or more likely the velodrome for that joyless prick.

    https://youtu.be/Wg07Jess5uU
    “Here is sub zero, now plain zero”
    Classic
    Edit: fun fact Ben Richards (Schwarzenegger) was wrongly framed for his role in the “Bakersfield Massacre”

  44. leadfarmer says:

    I know there’s no chance of this happening but I would laugh if Byram fell to us
    #epicleftorium

  45. Bulging Twine says:

    I thought Newhook looked real good. Fast. Best shot on Team Canada.
    Ranked 16 by LT

  46. slopitch says:

    All this talk about US forwards, i wonder what the odds are Bryam still al la Dougie Hamilton. Prob close to zero but u never know. Only 2 more months to debate this lol

  47. Pescador says:

    Ben: Caufield being gone by 8 would be fantastic news.

    Love this kind of draft, with so little consensus on order from about 3-12. Depending who’s left, Oilers could move back a couple of spots, pick up another 2nd rounder and still get a quality offensive player.

    Beyond the top 3 you gotta think there are 31 different versions of the Top 10
    Someone will slide but it will not be Byram

  48. geowal says:

    Not being open to a younger head coach because of a bad experience with Eakins is short-sighted and unnecessarily limits your pool of candidates. Similar to the “over-ripen” theory on our prospects. Good in theory, but you still have to actually use your brain and eyes and do an evaluation as to readiness, not just stick to dogma.

  49. jtblack says:

    Marc:
    Bob Stauffer
    ‏Verified account @Bob_Stauffer
    10m10 minutes ago

    Canada loses 5-2 to USA at U-18.
    Yesterday Canada got screwed on some double-standard calls vs host Sweden.
    Today the U.S. was just way better, earned the 4PPG.
    Totally agree with @CraigJButton 5 Amercian FWDS will go in top 10:
    Hughes, Turcotte, Zegras, Caufield, Boldy

    According to Bob Mackenzie at the beginning of April : ‘Hughes and Kakko are clearly the top two prospects in this year’s draft — like Hughes at No. 1, Kakko got 10 out of 10 votes at No. 2 — but Russian winger Vasili Podkolzin actually makes it more of a Big Three. Eight of 10 scouts had Podkolzin at No. 3 and there appears to be some separation between the top three and the rest of the class.’

    He then says: ‘If the margins between Hughes and Kakko at Nos. 1 and 2 were razor thin, so too were the differences between the top three Canadians in the draft. There is little separating Dach, Cozens and Byram at Nos. 4, 5 and 6.’

    I’m guessing that Turcotte, Zegras, Caufield and Boldy round out the top ten.

    There are going to be three good players when the Oilers pick. Which players they are will depend on which hockey scout trends/prejudices win out. They tend to be swayed by both recency and small sample size tournaments, which could push the USNDT players up at the expense of Dach, Cozens and Byram.

    On the other hand, the most common player type to get drafted higher than expected by far is a big, scoring centre that could be a 1C – see Barkov, Dubois, Kotkaniemi, Hayton etc. This could keep Dach and Cozens in the top five and push down Podkolzin, Byram and the USNDT players.

    Thanks for the Info.

    Top 10 will be a Crap shoot. Cant wait !

  50. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Tyler Benson is going to fill a massive Top 6 hole for this club next season.

    What a wonderful story for this young man.

    Would be great to see him find excellent chemistry with Nuge. Having a consistent talented W is just what the doctor ordered to try and keep Nuge in the fold. And wins of course. More wins for RNH!

    – If your right that’s awesome but I don’t see it yet

    – He’s a year older doing well in the AHL. Doesn’t have anything plus: I don’t love his edges. Shot not amazing not quick first step.

    – I think he’s a decent prospect. I do t see a top6 guy there and certainly not next season.

  51. Numenius says:

    geowal:
    Not being open to a younger head coach because of a bad experience with Eakins is short-sighted and unnecessarily limits your pool of candidates. Similar to the “over-ripen” theory on our prospects. Good in theory, but you still have to actually use your brain and eyes and do an evaluation as to readiness, not just stick to dogma.

    Completely agree. Sather was young when he started coaching and he did pretty well

    Be nice to find the next Sather.

    I’d hope Todd Nelson would at least be a guy to look at, given his continued success.

  52. Reja says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – If your right that’s awesome but I don’t see it yet

    – He’s a year older doing well in the AHL. Doesn’t have anything plus: I don’t love his edges. Shot not amazing not quick first step.

    – I think he’s a decent prospect. I do t see a top6 guy there and certainly not next season.

    He’s a pretty elite passer and not every top 6 winger in the League is a speed demon you still need hands. He’s having a fantastic year for his age and lost time development loved the draft pick still do barring injury l think he’ll definitely be in our starting 9 next year.

  53. Pescador says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – If your right that’s awesome but I don’t see it yet

    – He’s a year older doing well in the AHL. Doesn’t have anything plus: I don’t love his edges. Shot not amazing not quick first step.

    – I think he’s a decent prospect. I do t see a top6 guy there and certainly not next season.

    Hopefully he’s more Tanner Pearson than Anton Lander

  54. Westchester Oil says:

    Ben: Caufield being gone by 8 would be fantastic news.

    Love this kind of draft, with so little consensus on order from about 3-12. Depending who’s left, Oilers could move back a couple of spots, pick up another 2nd rounder and still get a quality offensive player.

    I think we’d be ok with pretty much any of the top 10 from Lowetide’s list today. I just hope that we don’t do something stupid and go ‘off the board’.

  55. Westchester Oil says:

    Bulging Twine:
    I thought Newhook looked real good.Fast.Best shot on Team Canada.
    Ranked 16 by LT

    I saw Newhook live and was uber-impressed. I’m guessing he goes somewhere btwn 11-18. Low risk pick at that position, IMHO.

  56. Pescador says:

    Westchester Oil: I think we’d be ok with pretty much any of the top 10 from Lowetide’s list today. I just hope that we don’t do something stupid and go ‘off the board’.

    I can see the Oilers brassholes™️ talking themselves into Peyton Krebs
    Just slightly off the board, but definitely leaving skill on the table

  57. OriginalPouzar says:

    Samorukov with an assist on an early 2nd period goal – Guelph up 2-0 trying to force a game 7 (again).

  58. Buddy says:

    Bag of Pucks: I’ve heard good things about Pharaoh’s. Gotta get over there.

    Is it still there? Don’t get back to the Forbidden City very often now.

    It was actually Pharos, not Pharaoh’s. Used to go there all the time in university, after Dewey’s or Ratt. A friend of mine used to call the owner, a little Greek chap, Pharaoh —the guy loved it.

  59. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Pescador: Hopefully he’s more Tanner Pearson than Anton Lander

    20 year old years in the AHL

    Benson 68gp 15g 51a 66pts – 0.97pts/gm
    Pearson 64gp 19g 28a 47tps – 0.73pts/gm
    Lander 14gp 1g 4a 5pts – 0.36pts/gm

    Lander’s 20 year old year was the bizzaro year where he was getting killed in the NHL and Renney kept him up and kept playing him. (56gp 2g 4a 6pts in NHL)

    Lander’s 21 year old year in the AHL was 47gp 9g 11a 20pts – 0.42pts/gm

    Benson is in a different universe than Lander and tracking ahead of Pearson nicely

  60. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Buddy: Is it still there? Don’t get back to the Forbidden City very often now.

    It was actually Pharos, not Pharaoh’s. Used to go there all the time in university, after Dewey’s or Ratt. A friend of mine used to call the owner, a little Greek chap, Pharaoh —the guy loved it.

    Yeah I had a many, many small beef and onion pizzas for $5 when I was at UofA and Pharos was close to the house.

    That was in the early 90s

  61. Wilde says:

    If Boldy, Podkolzin and Zegras get taken ahead of us, we win the game

  62. Lowetide says:

    For The Athletic: ‘I see something special’: Are Oilers prepared to make Caleb Jones a fixture on the roster next season?

    https://theathletic.com/951399/2019/04/28/i-see-something-special-are-ken-hitchcock-and-the-oilers-getting-ready-to-call-up-caleb-jones-next-season/

  63. Bag of Pucks says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – If your right that’s awesome but I don’t see it yet

    – He’s a year older doing well in the AHL. Doesn’t have anything plus: I don’t love his edges. Shot not amazing not quick first step.

    – I think he’s a decent prospect. I do t see a top6 guy there and certainly not next season.

    You would hope the new GM will acquire a vet W or two to make the rook force the issue. But it feels like this prospect has been marinated in the minors for the perfect amount for once,

  64. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Noted midget Barzal opens the scoring for NYI

  65. Lowetide says:

    Bulging Twine:
    I thought Newhook looked real good.Fast.Best shot on Team Canada.
    Ranked 16 by LT

    I am very wary of players drafted high and coming out of the BC league. I don’t know it the quality of competition in that league is USHL level. Newhook impressed in this tournament, but it was also a small sample size. There’s risk there imo.

  66. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Noted midget Barzal opens the scoring for NYI

    Man, if only he was a little taller he might get a second contract.

  67. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide: Man, if only he was a little taller he might get a second contract.

    BOS and EDM didn’t take him because they couldn’t see him!

  68. Pescador says:

    Wilde:
    If Boldy, Podkolzin and Zegras get taken ahead of us, we win the game

    “You either win the game of Thrones or you die”

  69. Kmart99 says:

    Ben:
    From a songwriting perspective, Heart of Saturday Night is probably his best record, straight up (along with Nighthawks maybe).

    The Benson pick was a risky one–he seemed destined for Pubitis Island for awhile there. Admirable dedication from the player to get back on track.

    I think Bouchard is Justin Schultz. And that’s a valuable asset if you don’t go all Norris-potential on him.

    Bouchard has the Bouch-Bomb from the point plus a deadly wrister. Justin Schultz only had the wrister. I see some similarities in their abilities to walk the line, get pucks through traffic, but outside of that they seem to produce their offense quite differently.

    I’m not really sure who a good comp would be for Bouchard. Elite shot, elite passing, strong straight line speed, but the rest is hard to get a read on. I’d hate to dump on him for big noticeable turnovers the way Oilers management did to Petry. Clearly Bouch has a high ceiling.

  70. Bulging Twine says:

    Samurakov 2 assists
    Guelph up 5-0
    looks like another game 7 coming up for them

  71. Pescador says:

    Woodguy v2.0: 20 year old years in the AHL

    Benson 68gp 15g 51a 66pts – 0.97pts/gm
    Pearson 64gp 19g 28a 47tps – 0.73pts/gm
    Lander 14gp 1g 4a 5pts – 0.36pts/gm

    Lander’s 20 year old year was the bizzaro year where he was getting killed in the NHL and Renney kept him up and kept playing him. (56gp 2g 4a 6pts in NHL)

    Lander’s 21 year old year in the AHL was 47gp 9g 11a 20pts – 0.42pts/gm

    Benson is in a different universe than Lander and tracking ahead of Pearson nicely

    For sure, the AHL pts/gm tells us that Benson is the superior prospect in scoring ability
    That doesn’t tell the entire story about a player & his potential to play in the NHL.
    You have to have the skating ability
    That’s why my post said hopefully Benson is closer to Pearson than Lander.
    I should have clarified in the original post,

  72. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Pescador: For sure, the AHL pts/gm tells us that Benson is the superior prospect in scoring ability
    That doesn’t tell the entire story about a player & his potential to play in the NHL.
    You have to have the skating ability
    That’s why my post said hopefully Benson is closer to Pearson than Lander.
    I should have clarified in the original post,

    I agree that skating is important.

    AHL scoring rates in the 20 year old year is an excellent predictor (but not infallible) of future NHL ability as well.

  73. pts2pndr says:

    Bulging Twine: Same on Cozens.He’s a bit of a head down and drive type player which is fine but may limit his ability to maximize his teammates and can lead to turnovers when he tries to do it all himself.
    My not be awesome on the PP at the pro level

    But there is a lot to like about Cozens
    shot, skating, size, etc

    It is very difficult to make accurate assesments on 17 year olds! If you have raised a teenager or even think back to when you were one you should understand. One of my daughters would faint at the sight of a needle. She is a successfull RN. We as a fan base have to understand there is much room for error. Not necessarily the fault of the player or the scout if it doesn’t work out.

  74. jtblack says:

    Bulging Twine:
    Samurakov 2 assists
    Guelph up 5-0
    looks like another game 7 coming up for them

    How good has his season been !

    Hes big and can skate and is starting to put up points. Really like his progress

  75. Oil2Oilers says:

    For the first time in exactly on forever the Oilers future on defense is so bright I need to wear shades.

    Caleb Jones looks to be a lock as an NHL defender, possibly top 4.

    Kelfbom is under rated and has never had a partner with his skill.

    Persson has the possibility of a third pairing PP specialist.

    Samurakov up arrow this year has turned into a rocket ship.

    Bouchard reminds me to much of Jultz to get excited but hey maybe the Oilers won’t screw this one up.

  76. OriginalPouzar says:

    Samorukov finishes up with 2 assists as Guelph forces game 7 with a 5-1 win!

  77. Bulging Twine says:

    pts2pndr: It is very difficult to make accurate assesments on 17 year olds! If you have raised a teenager or even think back to when you were one you should understand. One of my daughters would faint at the sight of a needle. She is a successfull RN. We as a fan base have to understand there is much room for error. Not necessarily the fault of the player or the scout if it doesn’t work out.

    I totally agree. Maybe the draft eligible age should be raised a year. The draft would be that much more interesting and valuable.

  78. Bulging Twine says:

    Hurricanes dropping like flies.

    Mrazek out. van Riemsdyk out
    Ferland, Martinook, Svechnikov already out

  79. OriginalPouzar says:

    Glovjuice: I have been converted on Bouchard’s skating – not a plus edge-wise etc. but fast enough straight ahead which will enable him becoming at worst a 3 of 6 D in the NHL. Can Benson skate well enough to become at least a 8 of 12 forward ?

  80. OriginalPouzar says:

    Glovjuice: I have been converted on Bouchard’s skating – not a plus edge-wise etc. but fast enough straight ahead which will enable him becoming at worst a 3 of 6 D in the NHL. Can Benson skate well enough to become at least a 8 of 12 forward ?

    Benson’s skating has improved through the year. I’m more concerned about Marody in this regard.

  81. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilman99: If there is a question regarding Benson’s skating I can assure you he will address it in the off season, he is that committed.

    Woodcroft is a coach that seems to do nothing but praise his players publicly – every time I hear him speak he is absolutely glowing so, due to that, I take a bit of the high praise of his players with a bit of a grain of salt.

    With that said, he has repeatedly throughout the year talked about the high end work ethic of Benson, both on and off the ice – about him being a tireless working striving to get better.

    As I said, Jay W. is all about public praise but this attribute of Benson’s is something that I’ve heard him speak about at least 5-6 times.

    I think it is indeed a real material attribute.

  82. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wilde:
    Pescador,

    I don’t think Hall reacts the way he did in ’16 if the well was poisoned years prior

    How did Hall react in 2016?

  83. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jethro Tull: I’m curious…..I believe you are a proponent of “over-ripening” prospects.

    Why do you not believe this should be happening with the transition from junior to pro?

    As on Earth as it is in heaven……

    I’m not a proponent of over-ripening prospects – I am a proponent allowing them to develop in the proper league until they are ready. If they are ready and earn the promotion to the NHL, I’m all for it.

    With Bouchard, I’ve been adamant that he needs to start in the AHL next year because we have no way of knowing if he is NHL ready because we know that a young high skilled prospect can’t prove he is NHL ready at camp and in exhibitions games – we’ve been fooled year after year by exceptional performances throughout camp by players that prove they are NOT NHL ready once the regular season starts.

    Given how important this player is, I am for a the no-risk approach of starting him in the AHL next year – if he is a plus plus player at the AHL level right away and proves that over 20-30 games, absolutely, bring him to the NHL. I don’t need him over-ripe, I need him ready or looking like he might be ready.

    We know that his play in the offensive zone and in offensive situations is NHL ready – that’s one thing we do know. We don’t know where the rest of his game is at at the pro level – puck retrieval, angles, gaps and defending the blue line, defensive zone battles, etc.

    He is being sheltered from those situations generally. I get that – he’s two games in to his pro career (discounting the silly games at the beginning of last season) and I’m not saying its not the right approach. At the same time, there is the opportunity here to gain some valuable information on the player and his readiness if actually given some regular minutes. Not saying that needs to happen just that the opportunity is there. There likely should be a balance and that will likely happen as they play more games.

  84. OriginalPouzar says:

    slopitch: Or its telling that he needs 40+ ahl games. Which is fine or preferable , oilers can try Lagesson, Bear, Persson and Jones in the 5-7 slot. I like adding Barrie this year to give Bouchard lots of time to grow his game in the ahl. I can just see the oilers 6 games in and no pp goals rushing Bouchard. It would need to be a hockey trade though – oilers arent deep enough to be able to spend assets of a ufa who might leave. Its also debateable whether spending assets on d is the best play right now. Just suggesting that having a pp option would prevent the oilers from being oilers and rushing him.

    Of course a deep playoff run where Bouchard plays big minutes is best case. Sheltering just means give him more time.

    That’s exactly it – we don’t know if he needs 40 AHL games – I think its likely but we just don’t know.

    I understand the sheltering and am not necessarily against it but it has the effect of not providing some valuable information on where he is at.

    Its cool though – even if they keep deploying him like this, that’s fine – as long as they don’t put too much stock in his PPG pace he will run in exhibition and actually re-assign him in October and let a more established pro the job (assuming Jones, Lagesson, Persson continue to play well).

  85. Alpine says:

    geowal:
    Not being open to a younger head coach because of a bad experience with Eakins is short-sighted and unnecessarily limits your pool of candidates. Similar to the “over-ripen” theory on our prospects. Good in theory, but you still have to actually use your brain and eyes and do an evaluation as to readiness, not just stick to dogma.

    I agree with this. In the next breath, we probably shouldn’t discount old coaches as dinosaurs because of a lack of success with more experienced coaches.

    Veteran coaches know how to line match and should generally understand the tactical side of NHL hockey. That’s why it can be hard to hire the fresh faced progressive coach because there’s still a learning curve.

    I remain unsure of who the Oilers should hire as a coach. If they want to go with a rookie, I’d advise they look at guys with both NHL assistant and AHL head coach experience.

    Woodcroft, Lane Lambert, Todd Nelson, Rocky Thompson, Luke Richardson, Pascal Vincent all have both. Richardson might end up back in Ottawa and Vincent will get Maurice’s job if and when the Jets decide to make a coaching chance.

    Maurice could be a good option for us. Long track record, somewhat inconsistent but he has made the 3rd round or better in three of his four NHL coaching stints.

    I remain skeptical of translation of CHL to NHL success. A lot of CHL coaches haven’t fared too well in their first NHL go-around as head coaches. I often push back on Knoblauch for this reason. It would have been hard not to succeed in Erie with a generational talent (I know he did with Kootenay as well). It’s not McDavid who needs a coach but the rest of the roster.

    It is kind of rare for a team to hire an AHL HC from another org. Usually teams opt for a recently fired NHL HC air they promote their own AHL coach. I don’t love the veteran coaches available. Most of them have mixed records. There’s no easy option like the last time with McLellan so the Oilers will have to interview lots of candidates.

  86. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: He’s a pretty elite passer and not every top 6 winger in the League is a speed demon you still need hands. He’s having a fantastic year for his age and lost time development loved the draft pick still do barring injury l think he’ll definitely be in our starting 9 next year.

    You are correct on his passing. This dish last nice was Drai-like:

    https://twitter.com/Condors/status/1122339917378408449

  87. Alpine says:

    OriginalPouzar: How did Hall react in 2016?

    He was very upset with being traded.

  88. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: 20 year old years in the AHL

    Benson 68gp 15g 51a 66pts – 0.97pts/gm
    Pearson 64gp 19g 28a 47tps – 0.73pts/gm
    Lander 14gp 1g 4a 5pts – 0.36pts/gm

    Lander’s 20 year old year was the bizzaro year where he was getting killed in the NHL and Renney kept him up and kept playing him. (56gp 2g 4a 6pts in NHL)

    Lander’s 21 year old year in the AHL was 47gp 9g 11a 20pts – 0.42pts/gm

    Benson is in a different universe than Lander and tracking ahead of Pearson nicely

    As you are pointing out, its important to remember that his season was as a 20-year old rookie. This is what makes it more impressive than Marody’s season given Marody is a year plus older.

    There are AHL “rookies” that are a few years older and he’s blown past them all.

  89. Reja says:

    Oil2Oilers:
    For the first time in exactly on forever the Oilers future on defense is so bright I need to wear shades.

    Caleb Jones looks to be a lock as an NHL defender, possibly top 4.

    Kelfbom is under rated and has never had a partner with his skill.

    Persson has the possibility of a third pairing PP specialist.

    Samurakov up arrow this year has turned into a rocket ship.

    Bouchard reminds me to much of Jultz to get excited but hey maybe the Oilers won’t screw this one up.

    From what I’ve seen Bouchard has a way Harder accurate shot which should translate in to a weapon and keep the opposing PKers honest which should open it up more for Connor and Leon I can easily see us with a top 5 powerplay. Bouchard is also deadly at headmaning the pass quickly and accurate up ice this will lead to many odd-man rushes and breakaways

  90. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oil2Oilers:
    For the first time in exactly on forever the Oilers future on defense is so bright I need to wear shades.

    Caleb Jones looks to be a lock as an NHL defender, possibly top 4.

    Kelfbom is under rated and has never had a partner with his skill.

    Persson has the possibility of a third pairing PP specialist.

    Samurakov up arrow this year has turned into a rocket ship.

    Bouchard reminds me to much of Jultz to get excited but hey maybe the Oilers won’t screw this one up.

    I put WIllie Lagesson right up in to that group – he is going to be a fan favorite for the next 7 years.

  91. YKOil says:

    OriginalPouzar: Benson’s skating has improved through the year. I’m more concerned about Marody in this regard.

    From what little I know of hockey:

    You can improve edgework a fair amount and that in turn will improve speed a little.

    You can improve speed but that often means little in regards to edgework, except at the highest levels where physical force meets mechanical excellence (see also: Connor McDavid)

    You can improve strength and agility and those two traits can improve edgework and speed.

    You can learn better systems but all that does is hide poor mechanics… and sometimes that is all you need.

    You can, sometimes, get ‘smarter’ in regards to the game and that can also hide lesser traits.

    It is hard to overcome true limitations in speed and agility but you can mitigate with training and, especially, smarts.

    Were I on the cusp… I would poor everything I had into anything that would improve the areas I was lacking, especially where they also built on a strength. Hell, if one of my issues was stiffness in the body then yoga and ballroom dance (which also increases agility and improves timing) would be on the agenda.

    No stone unturned would be my motto.

    My hope is Marody takes the money he has made and pours it into himself. Have always appreciated the under-dog.

  92. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar: As you are pointing out, its important to remember that his season was as a 20-year old rookie.This is what makes it more impressive than Marody’s season given Marody is a year plus older.

    There are AHL “rookies” that are a few years older and he’s blown past them all.

    Thanks.

    When comparing players it’s *crucial* to use age years until they are 23 or so, and probably even beyond.

  93. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    I understand the sheltering and am not necessarily against it but it has the effect of not providing some valuable information on where he is at.

    He’s checking the “can beat the AHL in a sheltered role” box.

    Next box is “can beat the AHL in a top 4 role” then “can beat the AHL in a top pairing role”

    EDM has a history of promoting players before they check all the AHL boxes but I hope that’s changed.

    I doubt it would take Bouchard long to check the next two boxes but I think it’s critical that Manson is happy with his play before he plays for EDM.

  94. digger50 says:

    For our draft experts:

    Is there a hidden sniper sitting in draft ranking 34 to 44 spot?

  95. flea says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Even if Bouchard is ready, he’s looking great now after a season of playing high end, playoff hockey in a feature role.

    I think putting hm in the AHL and waiting for the first injury/poor performance to call him up is absolutely the best option. Giving players 15-20 games to really find their game and confidence and then let them play in the NHL.

    Unless he absolutely smashes it out of the park in training camp, which is possible.

  96. Numenius says:

    Pescador: I can see the Oilers brassholes™️ talking themselves into Peyton Krebs
    Just slightly off the board, but definitely leaving skill on the table

    I’m hoping for better than Krebs, but then again he could be the right pick. Interesting to see that he tied for highest scorer on the U18 team and also was team captain.

  97. Bulging Twine says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    OriginalPouzar,

    I understand the sheltering and am not necessarily against it but it has the effect of not providing some valuable information on where he is at.

    He’s checking the “can beat the AHL in a sheltered role” box.

    Next box is “can beat the AHL in a top 4 role” then “can beat the AHL in a top pairing role”

    EDM has a history of promoting players before they check all the AHL boxes but I hope that’s changed.

    I doubt it would take Bouchard long to check the next two boxes but I think it’s critical that Manson is happy with his play before he plays for EDM.

    I like it!

  98. jake70 says:

    Bouchard, unlike Schultz, has a starting max cap hit at 1.65M (0.832M base + possible ~0.6M bonuses). Schultz came in later age, at a higher cap hit of 3.675M. Schultz signed a 1 year 3.9M contract in mid July 2015, had just turned 25…..said at the time he would not be an Oiler in 2016. His cap hit was skewed. They’ve got 3 years now to work with Bouchard on his whole game, at a much lower cap and much much lower % of team cap (1.16% vs. 5.33% for Schultz).

  99. Pescador says:

    OriginalPouzar: As you are pointing out, its important to remember that his season was as a 20-year old rookie.This is what makes it more impressive than Marody’s season given Marody is a year plus older.

    There are AHL “rookies” that are a few years older and he’s blown past them all.

    Awesome,
    Its going to be fascinating to see what Benson is as a player as the next training camp rolls along.
    Everyone including the Brass holes are hoping he is ready to play in the 2LW hole.
    I believe he could thrive there with an adequate veteran 2RW.
    Benson – Nuge – Nyquist (pipedream)
    3LW is probably the ideal landing spot.
    However if he’s not ready for the show & starts the year in Bakersfield there’s certainly no shame in that. Definitely that would be most prudent approach.

  100. Reja says:

    Pescador: Awesome,
    Its going to be fascinating to see what Benson is as a player as the next training camp rolls along.
    Everyone including the Brass holes are hoping he is ready to play in the 2LW hole.
    I believe he could thrive there with an adequate veteran 2RW.
    Benson – Nuge – Nyquist (pipedream)
    3LW is probably the ideal landing spot.
    However if he’s not ready for the show & starts the year in Bakersfield there’s certainly no shame in that. Definitely that would be most prudent approach.

    They also said Leon was slow love the attitude of Benson hope he proves the naysayers wrong. We need a couple of shoot first wingers for Connor Nuge Benson and Leon next year.

  101. Pescador says:

    digger50:
    For our draft experts:

    Is there a hidden sniper sitting in draft ranking 34 to 44 spot?

    No expert but Lowetide was suggesting Bobby Brink would be an astute selection.
    I’m curious to know what posters would think if the Oil were to pick Brett Leason, were he to be available at 38?

  102. Reja says:

    The hurricanes under Peters looked alright but no edge in their game. Looks like they adopted Rod Brind’Amour’s playing style and getting Nino in a steal of a trade hasn’t hurt either.

  103. oilersjo says:

    Eastern Conference Champions -Prince Albert Raiders

  104. buck yoakam says:

    Buddy,

    no they removed it when they turned the garneau into condos I think…(some local architect bought the building)…it was the best and I believe the cats that owned that were related to the royal pizza guys…the good old days ….great live music venues like andantes , billy buds, the sidetrack, the commie…we used to get all the great cats playing at the yardbird suite coming over to andantes after their gigs and the jams were serious!….

  105. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Search requirements:

    08/09 season until today (10 years)
    20 year old year
    Sorted by points/gm
    Minimum 30pg in the AHL
    Players 14 above and 10 below Benson sorted by these measures. (I was originally going to do “10 above and 10 below” as that’s a nice list of comps but there were only 14 above so I took em all)

    (I think I’d expect pts/gm to drop with an increase in gp, but not sure at what rate)

    Here’s their GP that season:
    Ryan Strome 37
    Logan Couture 42
    Kyle Palmieri 51
    Jack Roslovic 32
    Luke Adam 57
    Dylan Strome 50
    Dillon Dube 37
    Drake Batherson 59
    J.T. Miller 41
    Claude Giroux 33
    Artem Anisimov 80
    Jirí Tlusty 66
    Kasperi Kapanen 43
    Tyler Benson 68
    Ryan Spooner 59
    Tyler Ennis 69
    Nazem Kadri 44
    Jordan Kyrou 47
    Andrei Loktionov 34
    Jason Zucker 55
    Sean Couturier 31
    Brett Connolly 71
    Markus Granlund 52
    Tyler Toffoli 58
    Alexander Khokhlachev 65
    Zack Kassian 30
    Casey Cizikas 52

    Here are their points/gm:
    Ryan Strome 1.32
    Logan Couture 1.26
    Kyle Palmieri 1.14
    Jack Roslovic 1.09
    Luke Adam 1.09
    Dylan Strome 1.06
    Dillon Dube 1.05
    Drake Batherson 1.05
    J.T. Miller 1.05
    Claude Giroux 1.03
    Artem Anisimov 1.01
    Jirí Tlusty 1.00
    Kasperi Kapanen 1.00
    Tyler Benson 0.97
    Ryan Spooner 0.97
    Tyler Ennis 0.94
    Nazem Kadri 0.93
    Jordan Kyrou 0.92
    Andrei Loktionov 0.91
    Jason Zucker 0.91
    Sean Couturier 0.90
    Brett Connolly 0.89
    Markus Granlund 0.89
    Tyler Toffoli 0.88
    Alexander Khokhlachev 0.88
    Zack Kassian 0.87
    Casey Cizikas 0.87

  106. Lowetide says:

    digger50:
    For our draft experts:

    Is there a hidden sniper sitting in draft ranking 34 to 44 spot?

    I’m no expert, but would suggest Blake Murray’s 30 OHL goals, Brett Leason and Braydon Tracey from the dub are solid candidates. Samuel Fagemo is also intriguing in that range.

  107. Kmart99 says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Those comps just go to show how much of a shit show it is when predicting AHL to NHL numbers. Benson could make it right out of camp and put up 50+ pts or struggle to even make the jump and play something like 10 games and get 0 points… and everything in between. Who knows if the Oilers get T Ennis level offense or Ryan Spooner. Hopefully Benson’s lifelong draft pedigree is worth something. If not for injuries scouts would have likely ranked him inside the top 20 of his draft class. Hopefully scouts were right about his upside.

  108. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    oilersjo:
    Eastern Conference Champions -Prince Albert Raiders

    Apparently the oil kings coach was mad furious about the lop-sides calls and terrible reffing in the last couple games. Good job on the oil kings making it so far into the season where no one picked them to even make the playoffs. Appears though that they were playing against the refs and the raiders in the same series.
    Sounds all too familiar doesn’t it…

  109. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar: You are correct on his passing.This dish last nice was Drai-like:

    https://twitter.com/Condors/status/1122339917378408449

    You can’t teach soft hands now it’s up to the Gm to find a couple of wingers that don’t have stone hands and will be able to roll 4 lines and Connor and Leon won’t be exhausted with 5 minutes left in every game.

  110. Ben says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    This is really interesting. Seems all over the map in terms of how these NHLEs would end up translating to the big leagues.

    Skating (Stromes) seems like an important selector. Usage in the A too, obviously…

  111. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    OriginalPouzar,

    I understand the sheltering and am not necessarily against it but it has the effect of not providing some valuable information on where he is at.

    He’s checking the “can beat the AHL in a sheltered role” box.

    Next box is “can beat the AHL in a top 4 role” then “can beat the AHL in a top pairing role”

    EDM has a history of promoting players before they check all the AHL boxes but I hope that’s changed.

    I doubt it would take Bouchard long to check the next two boxes but I think it’s critical that Manson is happy with his play before he plays for EDM.

    I don’t disagree but the fear I have is that he doesn’t actually get the chance to check the other two boxes this spring and parlays his one checked box along with a productive exhibition season (which we all know he will have and we all know will mean very little) in to a 3RD job in October.

  112. OriginalPouzar says:

    flea:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Even if Bouchard is ready, he’s looking great now after a season of playing high end, playoff hockey in a feature role.

    I think putting hm in the AHL and waiting for the first injury/poor performance to call him up is absolutely the best option. Giving players 15-20 games to really find their game and confidence and then let them play in the NHL.

    Unless he absolutely smashes it out of the park in training camp, which is possible.

    There is little doubt he will smash it out of the park in training camp but we know that will mean essentially nothing as far as NHL readiness – we’ve had top prospects smash it out of the park during camp various times, given NHL spots based off of that and then proven they were indeed NOT NHL ready once the real games start.

    Smashing it out of the park in real minutes at the AHL level would mean so much more than anything he could do at camp.

  113. OriginalPouzar says:

    jake70:
    Bouchard, unlike Schultz, hasa starting max cap hit at 1.65M (0.832M base + possible ~0.6M bonuses). Schultz came in later age, at a higher cap hit of 3.675M. Schultz signed a 1 year 3.9M contract in mid July 2015, had just turned 25…..said at the time he would not be an Oiler in 2016. His cap hit was skewed.They’ve got 3 years now to workwith Bouchard on his whole game, at a much lower cap and much much lower % of team cap(1.16%vs. 5.33% for Schultz).

    Most of those additional performance bonuses that Schultz had in his contract were unattainable – unless he was reasonably going to win a major trophy, be in the top 10 in points, etc.

  114. ArmchairGM says:

    Ben: I think Bouchard is Justin Schultz. And that’s a valuable asset

    I see more Brent Burns.

  115. Glovjuice says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Samorukov with an assist on an early 2nd period goal – Guelph up 2-0 trying to force a game 7 (again).

    He is an absolute stud at this level. Knocked out London also – not enough talk about that.

  116. Glovjuice says:

    Buddy: Is it still there? Don’t get back to the Forbidden City very often now.

    It was actually Pharos, not Pharaoh’s. Used to go there all the time in university, after Dewey’s or Ratt. A friend of mine used to call the owner, a little Greek chap, Pharaoh —the guy loved it.

    Nope, it’s a high end coffee shop now.

  117. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Search requirements:

    08/09 season until today (10 years)
    20 year old year
    Sorted by points/gm
    Minimum 30pg in the AHL
    Players 14 above and 10 below Benson sorted by these measures. (I was originally going to do “10 above and 10 below” as that’s a nice list of comps but there were only 14 above so I took em all)

    (I think I’d expect pts/gm to drop with an increase in gp, but not sure at what rate)

    Here’s their GP that season:
    Ryan Strome37
    Logan Couture42
    Kyle Palmieri51
    Jack Roslovic32
    Luke Adam57
    Dylan Strome50
    Dillon Dube37
    Drake Batherson59
    J.T. Miller41
    Claude Giroux33
    Artem Anisimov80
    Jirí Tlusty66
    Kasperi Kapanen43
    Tyler Benson68
    Ryan Spooner59
    Tyler Ennis69
    Nazem Kadri44
    Jordan Kyrou47
    Andrei Loktionov34
    Jason Zucker55
    Sean Couturier31
    Brett Connolly71
    Markus Granlund52
    Tyler Toffoli58
    Alexander Khokhlachev65
    Zack Kassian30
    Casey Cizikas52

    Here are their points/gm:
    Ryan Strome1.32
    Logan Couture1.26
    Kyle Palmieri1.14
    Jack Roslovic1.09
    Luke Adam1.09
    Dylan Strome1.06
    Dillon Dube1.05
    Drake Batherson1.05
    J.T. Miller1.05
    Claude Giroux1.03
    Artem Anisimov1.01
    Jirí Tlusty1.00
    Kasperi Kapanen1.00
    Tyler Benson0.97
    Ryan Spooner0.97
    Tyler Ennis0.94
    Nazem Kadri0.93
    Jordan Kyrou0.92
    Andrei Loktionov0.91
    Jason Zucker0.91
    Sean Couturier0.90
    Brett Connolly0.89
    Markus Granlund0.89
    Tyler Toffoli0.88
    Alexander Khokhlachev0.88
    Zack Kassian0.87
    Casey Cizikas0.87

    Wow, unless he becomes a large exception, there is almost no chance that he doesn’t become at least a solid NHLer…..

  118. Pescador says:

    Glovjuice: He is an absolute stud at this level. Knocked out London also – not enough talk about that.

    Uh Oh,
    He’s already in Mark Hunters doghouse

  119. Glovjuice says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Yeah I had a many, many small beef and onion pizzas for $5 when I was at UofA and Pharos was close to the house.

    That was in the early 90s

    Deke you are. I can tell.

  120. Oil2Oilers says:

    OriginalPouzar: I put WIllie Lagesson right up in to that group – he is going to be a fan favorite for the next 7 years.

    You watch more AHL than me, is he that sure to make the NHL?

  121. Pescador says:

    Lowetide: I’m no expert,

    My MMV

  122. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Glovjuice: Deke you are. I can tell.

    I’d rather cut my wrists.

    Awful assumption

  123. northerndancer says:

    ArmchairGM,

    ArmchairGM: I see more Brent Burns.

    I have always seen a lot of Brent Seabrook-ishness in Bouchard. Calm, economy of skating and positioning, shot. Poise mistaken for uninterested. Year after year. I would be happy with that for sure.

  124. godot10 says:

    leadfarmer:
    I know there’s no chance of this happening but I would laugh if Byram fell to us
    #epicleftorium

    Byram would arrive when Sekera and Russell are leaving.

  125. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    The list I showed earlier is from here: https://www.quanthockey.com/ahl/en/player-age/20-year-old-ahl-players.html

    They don’t have Power Play Points, but they do have Power Play Goals.

    I’d imagine that Benson has many more PPA than PPG.

    That said, here is the same list with the PPG removed from their points, then sorted by points per game again:

    Ryan Strome 1.27
    Logan Couture 1.12
    Jack Roslovic 1.03
    Kyle Palmieri 1.02
    Dillon Dube 1.00
    J.T. Miller 0.98
    Drake Batherson 0.95
    Luke Adam 0.95
    Tyler Benson 0.94
    Andrei Loktionov 0.91
    Jirí Tlusty 0.91
    Nazem Kadri 0.89
    Dylan Strome 0.88
    Kevin Fiala 0.86
    Claude Giroux 0.85
    Ryan Spooner 0.83
    Artem Anisimov 0.81
    Tyler Ennis 0.81
    Jordan Kyrou 0.81
    Casey Cizikas 0.81
    Alexander Khokhlachev 0.80
    Zack Kassian 0.80
    Kasperi Kapanen 0.79
    Tyler Toffoli 0.78
    Sean Couturier 0.77
    Brett Connolly 0.76
    Markus Granlund 0.73
    Jason Zucker 0.69

  126. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    godot10: Byram would arrive when Sekera and Russell are leaving.

    That’s good timing.

  127. godot10 says:

    Pescador: I can see the Oilers brassholes™️ talking themselves into Peyton Krebs
    Just slightly off the board, but definitely leaving skill on the table

    Peyton Krebs is the equal of any of those Americans not named Hughes.

  128. Westchester Oil says:

    Buddy: Is it still there? Don’t get back to the Forbidden City very often now.

    It was actually Pharos, not Pharaoh’s. Used to go there all the time in university, after Dewey’s or Ratt. A friend of mine used to call the owner, a little Greek chap, Pharaoh —the guy loved it.

    I know the owner’s son. It was a great pizza place.

    Dewey’s + RATT – those places bring back good memories. I remember taking a night class and during the 15 minute break, I would see how much beer I could drink at Dewey’s. Spent as much time in those establishments as I did in class – good times!

    Kids today don’t drink nearly as much as our generation did.

  129. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’m not a proponent of over-ripening prospects – I am a proponent allowing them to develop in the proper league until they are ready.If they are ready and earn the promotion to the NHL, I’m all for it.

    With Bouchard, I’ve been adamant that he needs to start in the AHL next year because we have no way of knowing if he is NHL ready because we know that a young high skilled prospect can’t prove he is NHL ready at camp and in exhibitions games – we’ve been fooled year after year by exceptional performances throughout camp by players that prove they are NOT NHL ready once the regular season starts.

    Given how important this player is, I am for a the no-risk approach of starting him in the AHL next year – if he is a plus plus player at the AHL level right away and proves that over 20-30 games, absolutely, bring him to the NHL.I don’t need him over-ripe, I need him ready or looking like he might be ready.

    We know that his play in the offensive zone and in offensive situations is NHL ready – that’s one thing we do know.We don’t know where the rest of his game is at at the pro level – puck retrieval, angles, gaps and defending the blue line, defensive zone battles, etc.

    He is being sheltered from those situations generally.I get that – he’s two games in to his pro career (discounting the silly games at the beginning of last season) and I’m not saying its not the right approach.At the same time, there is the opportunity here to gain some valuable information on the player and his readiness if actually given some regular minutes. Not saying that needs to happen just that the opportunity is there. There likely should be a balance and that will likely happen as they play more games.

    Exactly. No skipping steps. Check every box.

  130. YKOil says:

    godot10: Byram would arrive when Sekera and Russell are leaving.
    Woodguy v2.0: That’s good timing.

    Byram would be a fantastic pick-up. More or less set on top-pair D for most of a decade or longer.

  131. godot10 says:

    ArmchairGM: I see more Brent Burns.

    Larry Murphy.

  132. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oil2Oilers: You watch more AHL than me, is he that sure to make the NHL?

    No, I can’t say that he’s a sure bet to make it as an every day NHLer (and the only Oiler D prospect that I believe is in that category is Bouchard) but I put him right up there with Jones and I think that he is NHL ready or on the cusp.

    If Adam Larsson is the new age Jason Smith than Willie Lagesson is the new age Adam Larsson – an aggressive defence first d-man that can only skate and move the puck efficiently and has solid offensive instincts.

    Nope, I can’t say for sure that he’s going to be an every day NHL d-man but I can’t say that with respect to Jones either – I would absolutely take the bet though.

  133. Pescador says:

    OriginalPouzar: Wow, unless he becomes a large exception, there is almost no chance that he doesn’t become at least a solid NHLer…..

    Well he is an Oiler prospect so all bets are off

  134. godot10 says:

    If Byram isn’t there, Cozens is the best fit for the OIlers. His game will translate better and faster than Dach and many of the Americans when the puck is not on his stick. With McDavid and Draisaitl, the puck is not going to be on these players stick as much as they are used to. Cozens is also not a stranger to the front of the net.

    There are a lot of good forwards there. I don’t see the Americans (apart from Hughes) as better than Krebs. Kootenay did not break Krebs. The team was so awful, it could have.

    My viewings of Dach were earlier in the season. He reportedly has had a much better 2nd half. Cozens is the better fit for the Oilers.

    If the Oilers hire another old school coach like McLellan or Hitchcock, it is pointless drafting Caulfield. I hope everyone in front of us gets enamoured with the Americans and Cozens slides. And one of the seven like Podkolzin, and another liks Dach.

  135. pts2pndr says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    OriginalPouzar,

    I understand the sheltering and am not necessarily against it but it has the effect of not providing some valuable information on where he is at.

    He’s checking the “can beat the AHL in a sheltered role” box.

    Next box is “can beat the AHL in a top 4 role” then “can beat the AHL in a top pairing role”

    EDM has a history of promoting players before they check all the AHL boxes but I hope that’s changed.

    I doubt it would take Bouchard long to check the next two boxes but I think it’s critical that Manson is happy with his play before he plays for EDM.

    It is nice to have Manson coaching the D. The only part of Bouchards game that may not be at pro level would be defending. His on ice vision and anticipation have allowed him to not have to spend a great deal of time defending as an amateur.

  136. ArmchairGM says:

    godot10: Byram would arrive when Sekera and Russell are leaving.

    Yeah, but you still have incumbents Klefbom and Nurse, plus Jones, Lagesson and Samorukov should all be in the league by then. If he’s the BPA you pick him anyhow, but if you’re just going to trade him (or whoever he replaces) for a forward later, why not just draft that forward now?

    IMO Byram isn’t a clear cut above several of the forwards that will be available at #8.

  137. Bulging Twine says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    The only player that spoke well of Eakins after he left was his hand-picked captain, Andrew Ference.

    That spoke volumes how the little tyrant was viewed in the room.

    Would love to see the Condors knock his team out and send hairspray to the golf course. Or more likely the velodrome for that joyless prick.

    His wife is hosting a dinner on Wednesday.
    Ingrid Kavelaars

    Verified account

    @ingridkavelaars
    Apr 16
    More
    Playoff hockey starts Wednesday, team dinner! At home, our home, so we can bring it home! #hockeyfamily #gogullsgo #caldercup @ Poway, California https://www.instagram.com/ingridkavelaars/p/BwTkN3wBwtH0jZrSas6mqXNTqRmnBG2sqGZSGk0/?utm_source=ig_twitter_share&igshid=gktk30d6ygq0

    We should go

  138. Bulging Twine says:

    Bulging Twine: His wife is hosting a dinner on Wednesday.
    Ingrid Kavelaars

    Verified account

    @ingridkavelaarsApr 16
    More
    Playoff hockey starts Wednesday, team dinner! At home, our home, so we can bring it home! #hockeyfamily #gogullsgo #caldercup @ Poway, California https://www.instagram.com/ingridkavelaars/p/BwTkN3wBwtH0jZrSas6mqXNTqRmnBG2sqGZSGk0/?utm_source=ig_twitter_share&igshid=gktk30d6ygq0

    We should go

    Oh it was a couple weeks ago. Guess we missed it guys. Woulda been fun to crash. We coulda brought dessert

  139. Oil2Oilers says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Thanks

  140. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: Yeah, but you still have incumbents Klefbom and Nurse, plus Jones, Lagesson and Samorukov should all be in the league by then. If he’s the BPA you pick him anyhow, but if you’re just going to trade him (or whoever he replaces) for a forward later, why not just draft that forward now?

    IMO Byram isn’t a clear cut above several of the forwards that will be available at #8.

    You draft him (if he is indeed the BPA) because you simply don’t know how things are going to work out with the various prospects. You’ve slated each of Jones, Samorukov and Lagesson on to the team. Hey, I’m as high on Lagesson and Samorukov as anyone and Jones looks like a great bet at this point but good prospects fail all the time and more don’t make it than do. Its probably unlikely that all three become legit full time NHLer – shit, maybe only one does? We just don’t know at this point.

  141. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Pescador: Let’s get one thing straight
    Eakins is & was a total wank.
    But there is no system or innovation that could have overcome the roster Eakins had at his disposal
    IMO he poisoned the well on Taylor Hall
    Fuck that guy

    We can blame the coaches, but it was the org that we and is the problem.

    Because that is where the blame game starts. The players get blamed for a few good players not being able to drag the AHL player to the cup, and the AHL players get blamed for not being NHL players.

    Eakins, Quinn, McLellan and Hitch are/were all hired to make those lazy bums play. The ones that sparked any life like Nelson and Kruger has less of a chance.

    Hard work is necessary but people need to also feel good to be at their best.

    Maybe the oilers can lure Keenan back.

  142. Glovjuice says:

    Alpine: I agree with this. In the next breath, we probably shouldn’t discount old coaches as dinosaurs because of a lack of success with more experienced coaches.

    Veteran coaches know how to line match and should generally understand the tactical side of NHL hockey. That’s why it can be hard to hire the fresh faced progressive coach because there’s still a learning curve.

    I remain unsure of who the Oilers should hire as a coach. If they want to go with a rookie, I’d advise they look at guys with both NHL assistant and AHL head coach experience.

    Woodcroft, Lane Lambert, Todd Nelson, Rocky Thompson, Luke Richardson, Pascal Vincent all have both. Richardson might end up back in Ottawa and Vincent will get Maurice’s job if and when the Jets decide to make a coaching chance.

    Maurice could be a good option for us. Long track record, somewhat inconsistent but he has made the 3rd round or better in three of his four NHL coaching stints.

    I remain skeptical of translation of CHL to NHL success. A lot of CHL coaches haven’t fared too well in their first NHL go-around as head coaches. I often push back on Knoblauch for this reason. It would have been hard not to succeed in Erie with a generational talent (I know he did with Kootenay as well). It’s not McDavid who needs a coach but the rest of the roster.

    It is kind of rare for a team to hire an AHL HC from another org. Usually teams opt for a recently fired NHL HC air they promote their own AHL coach. I don’t love the veteran coaches available. Most of them have mixed records. There’s no easy option like the last time with McLellan so the Oilers will have to interview lots of candidates.

    This got me thinking – how often is a team looking for both a GM and head coach in the same off season. Because Oilers. The Oilers are fucked. Totally fucked.

  143. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    godot10: Larry Murphy.

    That’s an interesting comp.

  144. dustrock says:

    I said it on LT’s Cozens article but I’ll repaste here.

    I am no draft expert but I look at the scoring rates for Cozens/Dach/Krebs, particularly the 5v5 rates for Dach and Krebs and I am left wanting.

    Granted a guy like Draisaitl was 6 months older than Dach this year but his scoring was far ahead, same thing with Sam Reinhart.

    I am slightly confused this draft as to the actual quality of the high-end CHL guys and I wonder if any of them really have elite potential or not.

    I wonder what the argument is for these guys over any of the top USNDTP players.

    Honestly at this point my draft strategy is Byram or Turcotte or whoever is available of Zegras/Boldy/Caufield. In terms of who to choose between those 3 I’ll take your word for it.

  145. Jaxon says:

    leadfarmer:
    I know there’s no chance of this happening but I would laugh if Byram fell to us
    #epicleftorium

    Pescador: Beyond the top 3 you gotta think there are 31 different versions of the Top 10
    Someone will slide but it will not be Byram

    I think there is near zero chance as well. He is the highest ranked D in this year’s draft. One of the teams between 3 and 7 will take him. In 40 years, going back to 1979, there has only been two drafts that went beyond number 7 before the first D was picked. In 1983 there wasn’t a D picked until #14 Bobby Dollas, and in 1999 there wasn’t a D picked until #10 Branislav Mezei. In 1989 the first D was #6 Adam Bennett , and in 1990, 2001,and 2003 the first D was #7 (Darryl Sydor, Mike Komisarek, and Ryan Suter respectively). There hasn’t been a first D selected at #8 or #9. That’s pretty slim odds for a very good D. 2 opportunities in 40 years to draft the first D at #8. I think Edmonton’s only hope to get Byram is if another team values Broberg or Soderstrom more. Larry Fisher (The Hockey News) has Byram at#4 and Broberg at #5. Maybe if one of the teams (DET, CHI, COL, LAK, BUF) heavily trusts their European scouts on Soderstrom, Broberg, Heinola, or Seider as the top D, then they’ll reach and pick one of them ahead of Byram

  146. Jaxon says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Search requirements:

    08/09 season until today (10 years)
    20 year old year
    Sorted by points/gm
    Minimum 30pg in the AHL
    Players 14 above and 10 below Benson sorted by these measures. (I was originally going to do “10 above and 10 below” as that’s a nice list of comps but there were only 14 above so I took em all)

    (I think I’d expect pts/gm to drop with an increase in gp, but not sure at what rate)

    Here’s their GP that season:
    Ryan Strome37
    Logan Couture42
    Kyle Palmieri51
    Jack Roslovic32
    Luke Adam57
    Dylan Strome50
    Dillon Dube37
    Drake Batherson59
    J.T. Miller41
    Claude Giroux33
    Artem Anisimov80
    Jirí Tlusty66
    Kasperi Kapanen43
    Tyler Benson68
    Ryan Spooner59
    Tyler Ennis69
    Nazem Kadri44
    Jordan Kyrou47
    Andrei Loktionov34
    Jason Zucker55
    Sean Couturier31
    Brett Connolly71
    Markus Granlund52
    Tyler Toffoli58
    Alexander Khokhlachev65
    Zack Kassian30
    Casey Cizikas52

    Here are their points/gm:
    Ryan Strome1.32
    Logan Couture1.26
    Kyle Palmieri1.14
    Jack Roslovic1.09
    Luke Adam1.09
    Dylan Strome1.06
    Dillon Dube1.05
    Drake Batherson1.05
    J.T. Miller1.05
    Claude Giroux1.03
    Artem Anisimov1.01
    Jirí Tlusty1.00
    Kasperi Kapanen1.00
    Tyler Benson0.97
    Ryan Spooner0.97
    Tyler Ennis0.94
    Nazem Kadri0.93
    Jordan Kyrou0.92
    Andrei Loktionov0.91
    Jason Zucker0.91
    Sean Couturier0.90
    Brett Connolly0.89
    Markus Granlund0.89
    Tyler Toffoli0.88
    Alexander Khokhlachev0.88
    Zack Kassian0.87
    Casey Cizikas0.87

    I’ve put this theory forward before, but with Benson losing two half seasons in a row and three off-seasons in a row for training and skills development, maybe we should be comparing him to 19 year olds in the AHL. I’d argue he has lost at least one year worth of development. That changes the picture a bit more and re-aligns him with other ‘exceptional’ protects.

  147. Jaxon says:

    20-year-old Tyler Benson vs 19-year-old AHL seasons based on theory that he has lost at least 1 year in development due to injuries.

    Jason Spezza 1.256
    William Nylander 1.184
    Mikko Rantanen 1.154
    Pavol Demitra 1
    Tyler Benson 0.971
    Jakub Vrana 0.944
    Patrice Bergeron 0.897
    Roman Voloshenko 0.87
    Jirí Hudler 0.86
    Patrik Eliáš 0.851

  148. G Money says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Eakins, Quinn, McLellan and Hitch are/were all hired to make those lazy bums play.

    I’m with Scungilli on this one.

    I do think Eakins was given a background that echoed exactly this: “this team we’ve built is good enough to win a Cup, but the young talented players are lazy and don’t play defense, work with the character leaders to whip the lazy bastards into shape and we’re a surefire contender.”

    a. I think Oilers management is demonstrably clueless enough to believe this. Nothing they’ve ever said suggests those most responsible feel any true culpability for the 13 year shit show. Blame the players!

    b. Eakins came in with a rep as a fairly innovative coach and a development guy (e.g. Kadri). What we saw from him was very much against his prior rep.

    c. Insiders I’ve talked to *cough* Dellow *cough* have good things to say about Eakins, his willingness to learn, etc.

    d. After being fired, he made reference to being sold a “bill of goods” or something along those lines – I theorize that the whole “team is good, young players are lazy” is what he’s referring to.

    e. In a recent interview, he also referred to the fact that he felt that his big mistake was coming in so heavy and angry. I think he left unsaid that this approach was likely what he was convinced to do, not what he would have otherwise done.

    Anyway, those who despise Eakins won’t be convinced by anything I have to say.

    But there is ample evidence to show that the Oilers are a toxic and profoundly incompetent organization from the top down, and excepting the one goalie-driven playoff year, we’ve yet to see a coach thrive.

    I don’t think evaluating *any* coach based on *any* tenure with the Oilers in the last 13 years is going to give you a fair picture.

    I will be very interested to see what happens with Eakins wherever he ends up next.

  149. Jaxon says:

    There is one caveat to keep in mind when moving Caufield, Boldy, Zegras,Turcotte, and York up draft rankings based on their performance at the U18 tournament. Actually, the are numerous caveats to consider.
    1. Sample Size. 7 games is not a significant sample.
    2. Under 18, not Under 20 therefore easier competition.
    3. The USTNDP plays together all year long and for many of them for two years, getting to know each other and their coach’s systems whereas other countries’ players have been thrown together in the past week or two and are going in blind when it comes to systems.
    4. The team is quite stacked and it is hard to know who is zooming who.
    5. Recency bias.
    6. US scored 19 goals against Latvia and Slovakia.
    7. Sample size.

    Truthfully, I hope they do move up, I’m just scared they might move up on the Oilers’ list, too.

  150. oilersfan says:

    How come Russia and Sweden are the top 2 teams in the tournament but all but one of the top ranked forwards are american or Canadian? Surely there are some good Swede forwards and Russians (other than P) worthy of a second round pick???…

  151. Scungilli Slushy says:

    G Money: I’m with Scungilli on this one.

    I do think Eakins was given a background that echoed exactly this: “this team we’ve built is good enough to win a Cup, but the young talented players are lazy and don’t play defense, work with the character leaders to whip the lazy bastards into shape and we’re a surefire contender.”

    a. I think Oilers management is demonstrably clueless enough to believe this. Nothing they’ve ever said suggests those most responsible feel any true culpability for the 13 year shit show. Blame the players!

    b. Eakins came in with a rep as a fairly innovative coach and a development guy (e.g. Kadri). What we saw from him was very much against his prior rep.

    c. Insiders I’ve talked to *cough* Dellow *cough* have good things to say about Eakins, his willingness to learn, etc.

    d. After being fired, he made reference to being sold a “bill of goods” or something along those lines – I theorize that the whole “team is good, young players are lazy” is what he’s referring to.

    e. In a recent interview, he also referred to the fact that he felt that his big mistake was coming in so heavy and angry. I think he left unsaid that this approach was likely what he was convinced to do, not what he would have otherwise done.

    Anyway, those who despise Eakins won’t be convinced by anything I have to say.

    But there is ample evidence to show that the Oilers are a toxic and profoundly incompetent organization from the top down, and excepting the one goalie-driven playoff year, we’ve yet to see a coach thrive.

    I don’t think evaluating *any* coach based on *any* tenure with the Oilers in the last 13 years is going to give you a fair picture.

    I will be very interested to see what happens with Eakins wherever he ends up next.

    Good points

    Everything off revolves around the toxicity. That so many players collapse on the team. The astoundingly bad trades and drafting in the past. The team gets demoralized yearly.

    It’s a mess fo sho.

  152. Lowetide says:

    dustrock:
    I said it on LT’s Cozens article but I’ll repaste here.

    I am no draft expert but I look at the scoring rates for Cozens/Dach/Krebs, particularly the 5v5 rates for Dach and Krebs and I am left wanting.

    Granted a guy like Draisaitl was 6 months older than Dach this year but his scoring was far ahead, same thing with Sam Reinhart.

    I am slightly confused this draft as to the actual quality of the high-end CHL guys and I wonder if any of them really have elite potential or not.

    I wonder what the argument is for these guys over any of the top USNDTP players.

    Honestly at this point my draft strategy is Byram or Turcotte or whoever is available of Zegras/Boldy/Caufield. In terms of who to choose between those 3 I’ll take your word for it.

    My question about the USHL guys? Who is getting zoomed? I think Hughes and Turcotte are legit pushing, and Caufield’s scoring isn’t just a tournament sample he’s been doing it all year. Is Zegras in that group on merit? Boldy? Are there FIVE impact players, or is one of them complementary?

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0054342019.html

    I have all five inside the top 12, but maybe I’m wrong. Maybe Boldy is Ray Allison.

  153. Glovjuice says:

    G Money: I’m with Scungilli on this one.

    I do think Eakins was given a background that echoed exactly this: “this team we’ve built is good enough to win a Cup, but the young talented players are lazy and don’t play defense, work with the character leaders to whip the lazy bastards into shape and we’re a surefire contender.”

    a. I think Oilers management is demonstrably clueless enough to believe this. Nothing they’ve ever said suggests those most responsible feel any true culpability for the 13 year shit show. Blame the players!

    b. Eakins came in with a rep as a fairly innovative coach and a development guy (e.g. Kadri). What we saw from him was very much against his prior rep.

    c. Insiders I’ve talked to *cough* Dellow *cough* have good things to say about Eakins, his willingness to learn, etc.

    d. After being fired, he made reference to being sold a “bill of goods” or something along those lines – I theorize that the whole “team is good, young players are lazy” is what he’s referring to.

    e. In a recent interview, he also referred to the fact that he felt that his big mistake was coming in so heavy and angry. I think he left unsaid that this approach was likely what he was convinced to do, not what he would have otherwise done.

    Anyway, those who despise Eakins won’t be convinced by anything I have to say.

    But there is ample evidence to show that the Oilers are a toxic and profoundly incompetent organization from the top down, and excepting the one goalie-driven playoff year, we’ve yet to see a coach thrive.

    I don’t think evaluating *any* coach based on *any* tenure with the Oilers in the last 13 years is going to give you a fair picture.

    I will be very interested to see what happens with Eakins wherever he ends up next.

    This is very good. And, is probably close to reality. Soilers are incompetent in the extreme.

  154. Scungilli Slushy says:

    I don’t think Bouchard will struggle like Schultz with D play. We also shouldn’t expect him to be like Nurse, he’s far more skilled.

    Bouchard is far bigger than Schultz and has been a world class player. He isn’t going to be a banger but he’s also not going to avoid doing what he has to, because he can skate well enough specifically backwards and he’s got typical NHL size. I think he’ll have a much easier time adapting than the many other high offensive types coming in that are undersized. His pedigree to me means he is not going to accept losing battles constantly.

    As for Benson it’s too bad he isn’t more of a shooter. His scouting reports I read here and elsewhere referenced that he wasn’t fast, but also that he had good edges and played the walls well, good puck protection and hard to get off the puck.

    If he still has that, those are attributes that make players successful in the NHL. Maybe OP knows from watching. I worry more about guys that are skill types that aren’t fast, and also avoid traffic areas.

    Being able to keep and retrieve the puck is really important and offsets not being an elite skater, as it is with Drai. I also don’t think Benson is slow.

  155. Numenius says:

    Jaxon:
    There is one caveat to keep in mind when moving Caufield, Boldy, Zegras,Turcotte, and York up draft rankings based on their performance at the U18 tournament. Actually, the are numerous caveats to consider.
    1. Sample Size. 7 games is not a significant sample.
    2. Under 18, not Under 20 therefore easier competition.
    3. The USTNDP plays together all year long and for many of them for two years, getting to know each other and their coach’s systems whereas other countries’ players have been thrown together in the past week or two and are going in blind when it comes to systems.
    4. The team is quite stacked and it is hard to know who is zooming who.
    5. Recency bias.
    6. US scored 19 goals against Latvia and Slovakia.
    7. Sample size.

    Truthfully, I hope they do move up, I’m just scared they might move up on the Oilers’ list, too.

    Excellent post. I’d rather take who’s left of the 3 Canadians for this reason. Unless perhaps Turcotte is available.

  156. deardylan says:

    Glovjuice: Deke you are. I can tell.

    DKE..haha… they used to throw a Halloween Maze party in the 90s that would be a gamechanger for the rest of the year. Whole house turned into a dark maze where you would be lost for an hour and finally slide down and pop out at the entrance to the epic keg party in basement. Shrooms and mazes = underground epiphany.

    Anyone ever remember those parties?

    Other than raves in Goa, ayauschau in amazon, peyote rainbow hikes at Machu picchu, happy pizza at Angor Wat, freshly squeezed wheatgrass shots in Pai that was the closest to 60s trippin I ever experienced.

  157. OriginalPouzar says:

    Game 7 goes tongiht – can Guelph come back from 3-1 two series in a row?

    Bouchard is tied for 3rd in OHL playoff scoring with a few players and Samorukov is one point behind.

    They are 1-2 for OHL d-men in playoff scoring.

    Lets not forget, Bouchard only played 11 games (the other leaders are round 16-17) and Samorukov isn’t even and offence first player but more of a two way guy with a plus defensive game – although his offence has been spiking for months now.

    Loving it!

  158. Jaxon says:

    Numenius: Excellent post. I’d rather take who’s left of the 3 Canadians for this reason. Unless perhaps Turcotte is available.

    Turcotte would be amazing. His usage (low TOI) and the talent around him makes me suspect his production a bit, but it was so high, and so high above his teammates that it can’t be ignored. Of the Canadians being discussed in the top 10, I’d only be excited about Cozens or Byram.

  159. jake70 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Most of those additional performance bonuses that Schultz had in his contract were unattainable – unless he was reasonably going to win a major trophy, be in the top 10 in points, etc.

    Yeah I thought of that when I typed out my post. I agree the probability of him actually getting those bonuses quite low (although he did have Norris trophy potential I recall…) I assume, and you probably could clarify this, but a team has to account for all of the bonuses of a player when structuring their team cap each summer and fall leading into the season??

  160. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: You draft him (if he is indeed the BPA) because you simply don’t know how things are going to work out with the various prospects.You’ve slated each of Jones, Samorukov and Lagesson on to the team.Hey, I’m as high on Lagesson and Samorukov as anyone and Jones looks like a great bet at this point but good prospects fail all the time and more don’t make it than do. Its probably unlikely that all three become legit full time NHLer – shit, maybe only one does?We just don’t know at this point.

    First, I haven’t “slated” any of the prospects onto the roster, I simply said they “should be” on the team by then. And I don’t think it’s improbable either: Jones has already proved that he’s ready for the NHL at least at 3rd pairing; Lagesson is ready but lacks opportunity (should a LHD sustain an injury, i suspect Lagesson is 1st call up next year, so he won’t be without opportunity for long); Samorukov is tracking ahead of Jones at the same age while playing in a better league, so while not a sure thing he’s got a very good chance of making the big team in 18 months.

    We could look at this using probabilities to make it simpler. If we assign each player a probability of making the team and go from there. I’ll arbitrarily say Jones at 95%, Lagesson at 80% and Samorukov at 65%. Feel free to adjust those numbers as you see fit. So the question becomes, how many forward prospects do we have that exceed these numbers? RHD? I think a quick look at each position reveals that the team is woefully lacking quality forward prospects – meaning that unless Byram is clearly a cut above the forwards available at #8 (IMO he is not) then the correct course of action is obvious – draft a skilled forward.

  161. ArmchairGM says:

    Jaxon: Turcotte would be amazing. His usage (low TOI) and the talent around him makes me suspect his production a bit, but it was so high, and so high above his teammates that it can’t be ignored. Of the Canadians being discussed in the top 10, I’d only be excited about Cozens or Byram.

    Agree with your take. I’m not as high on Dach and Krebs as some are, and I have Turcotte above any of the Canadian kids.

  162. OriginalPouzar says:

    jake70: Yeah I thought of that when I typed out my post.I agree the probability of him actually getting those bonuses quite low (although he did have Norris trophy potential I recall…) I assume, and you probably could clarify this, but a team has to account for all of the bonuses of a player when structuring their team cap each summer and fall leading into the season??

    Yes and no.

    With respect to performance bonuses, they do not have to be taken in to account right away, however, if they do vest, they count in the year they are paid out. A team would be wise to leave a cushion for realistic performance bonus vesting. With that said, if bonuses vest and take a team over the cap, that is OK but a cap penalty is issued for the following season decreasing their upper limit essentially.

    I believe a team is allowed to go over the cap in a season by 10% due to performance bonuses (and incur the penalty for the next season).

  163. Glovjuice says:

    deardylan: …

    DKE..haha… they used to throw a Halloween Maze party in the 90s that would be a gamechanger for the rest of the year. Whole house turned into a dark maze where you would be lost for an hour and finally slide down and pop out at the entrance to the epic keg party in basement.Shrooms and mazes = underground epiphany.

    Anyone ever remember those parties?

    Other than raves in Goa, ayauschau in amazon, peyote rainbow hikes at Machu picchu, happy pizza at Angor Wat, freshly squeezed wheatgrass shots in Pai that was the closest to 60s trippin I ever experienced.

    I do remember, yes. Was there.

  164. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: First, I haven’t “slated” any of the prospects onto the roster, I simply said they “should be” on the team by then. And I don’t think it’s improbable either: Jones has already proved that he’s ready for the NHL at least at 3rd pairing; Lagesson is ready but lacks opportunity (should a LHD sustain an injury, i suspect Lagesson is 1st call up next year, so he won’t be without opportunity for long); Samorukov is tracking ahead of Jones at the same age while playing in a better league, so while not a sure thing he’s got a very good chance of making the big team in 18 months.

    We could look at this using probabilities to make it simpler. If we assign each player a probability of making the team and go from there.I’ll arbitrarily say Jones at 95%, Lagesson at 80% and Samorukov at 65%. Feel free to adjust those numbers as you see fit. So the question becomes, how many forward prospects do we have that exceed these numbers? RHD? I think a quick look at each position reveals that the team is woefully lacking quality forward prospects – meaning that unless Byram is clearly a cut above the forwards available at #8 (IMO he is not) then the correct course of action is obvious – draft a skilled forward.

    I’m not sure the difference between “slating them on the roster” and saying they “should be on the team” – its just context I guess but the point is that the analysis is based on all of them being on the NHL team at that point in time. You very well could be right and that is indeed the hope and, yes, everyone one mention is tracking for it, however, we know, from years and years and years of data that more prospects don’t make it than do including ones that are tracking well early in their development. I believe that Samorukov should “make it” and, sure 65% sounds reasonable but is that the right number? Maybe its really 30%? I don’t know.

    Also, with respect to these prospect d-men, we are likely to lose one of them in the expansion draft.

  165. godot10 says:

    oilersfan:
    How come Russia and Sweden are the top 2 teams in the tournament but all but one of the top ranked forwards are american or Canadian? Surely there are some good Swede forwards and Russians (other than P) worthy of a second round pick???…

    The two best Swedish forwards are 2020 drafts.

    Russia and Sweden both have good goaltenders.

    Sweden was playing at home.

    Russia, a generation after the Soviet breakup, is finally starting to play like a team again, rather than individuals.

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