16 Shells From a Thirty-Ought Six

We don’t know the day or the time, but there is anticipation across the land. Edmonton will have a new general manager soon, and once again hope (a dangerous thing) will find fertile ground. It is the nature of the nation to be hopeful, all of the truly grumbly bears have drifted away to other challenges. That’s neither to be mourned nor celebrated, it is nature finding its way.

I have often said Oilers fans have the faith of a child. It pisses people off royally, although it’s meant as a compliment. The Al Gore mocks the ability of the heart to heal and to love again, but the alternative is a horrible way to live. Oilers fans are the best of the lot, the top drawer, the pick of the litter. May the hockey Gods gift them with a manager equal to the size of the collective heart of the nation.

There is a lot of healing to do, and we don’t know if this next man is A boss or THE Boss. We’ll find out in due time. For now, a more critical eye on all transactions, certainly more critical than the joyful first chapter of the last admin, is the play here.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group.INSANE NEW OFFER IS HERE!

  • New Lowetide: ‘I see something special’: Are Oilers prepared to make Caleb Jones a fixture on the roster next season?
  • New Jonathan Willis: Gritty comeback performance sends Edmonton’s farm team to the second round of the AHL playoffs.
  • New Lowetide: Dylan Cozens might be ideal fit for Oilers at No. 8 overall in the 2019 draft
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Hard to please, but easy to work for’: How Sean Burke’s philosophy as a GM would benefit the Oilers.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: A dogged realist, Kelly McCrimmon’s resume makes him an attractive candidate for the Oilers GM job
  • New Lowetide: Is this the season the Oilers take the plunge and draft a USHL player in the first round?
  • Jonathan Willis: Top Oilers prospect Evan Bouchard stars in his first AHL game as Condors dominate.
  • Lowetide: Adam Larsson’s importance to the Oilers and why trading him is a bad idea.
  • Lowetide: Tyler Benson’s comparables offer Oilers fans plenty of hope for the future.
  • Lowetide: Making the call on the Oilers’ RFAs with a new general manager on the way.
  • Lowetide: Red Wings front office shuffle could impact Oilers’ future.
  • Jonathan Willis: Potential coaching candidates and why the Oilers don’t need to rush the GM search to get one
  • Lowetide: What would Glen Sather do with these Oilers?
  • Jonathan Willis: Some creative solutions to address the Oilers’ goalie problem
  • Lowetide: The Milan Lucic saga rolls into Year 4 for Oilers with no easy answers
  • Jonathan Willis: Who stays and who goes? An early projection of which players will remain on the Oilers’ roster in 2019-20
  • LowetideHow high can these Condors fly?
  • Lowetide: The Oilers possible summer trade pieces, and which longtime players might be saying goodbye.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ten prospects likely to be available when the Oilers make their first-round pick.

50-MAN FOR THE NEW MAN

Edmonton’s next general manager will arrive to a cool reception and recent snowfall. That will be counter to the love-in that waited for Peter Chiarelli in 2015, Oilers fans basking in the glow of the McDavid lottery.

This time, fans are spitting bullets and will probably be unhappy with the winning candidate for GM no matter what he says at his first avail. I would suggest he avoids words like “heavy” and phrases like “you can’t be afraid to make trades” because it sure as hell didn’t work for the last guy.

I would recommend distributing the current 50-man list, and then spending about 10 minutes saying ‘would you look at that?’ but people might tire of the routine. Sooner or later, he will have to say something like “this team missed the playoffs last season and the season before; there will be changes” and that will set the foundation for the summer.

This is the current 50-man list. There are 43 names here, with nine RFA’s who need contracts or to be sent away. I’m estimating the list on draft week to be about 40, with Ryan McLeod added, and Norell, Rattie, Larkin and Rieder cast away. Ryan Mantha’s contract situation may also become clearer. We’ll see.

For fans, and for media, I think a more careful approach to the next GM is wise. I don’t want to know the fan who wasn’t on cloud nine after the McDavid lottery, and PC’s hiring came right on the heels (early words here). Most fans raised an eyebrow on the pricetag of Griffin Reinhart (rightly), it was too much to pay no matter how Reinhart turned out.

I said this on the night of the Reinhart trade: “In terms of value, Peter Chiarelli gave up too much. Reinhart—if everything works out—projects as a second-pairing guy and the price paid was dear, too dear.”

More from that night: “For me, even after today’s unusual trade, grabbing any of these (second round) players would be a win for the first two rounds. Edmonton can’t count on any being available with their next pick, and that’s a major issue in dealing No. 16 and No. 33 for Reinhart. I’ll post more on Reinhart later but want to drive home that point—two bullets here—and the sheer number of quality players who are no longer available. Peter Chiarelli clearly felt defense was important but that was a dear price.”

PERSONAL OPINION

I usually list a few possible options and needs here, but wanted to express a few opinions and ideas. So, here goes. First, I wouldn’t spend any assets on bringing in a pricey RH defenseman with so many attractive options on the way. Edmonton may have to suffer through another year of wobble, but if the scouts have been doing the job then Evan Bouchard should be able to slide in on the third pairing in the next 12 months. He’ll also help the power play.

I don’t think the RH depth chart (Larsson, Russell, Benning) from last season is good enough to return. I do think a player like Bouchard is close enough to the NHL (Oscar Klefbom spent 57 games in the AHL) for the organization to consider ‘puck mover who can goose the power play’ issue on the way to being solved. Joel Persson may also help.

What should the new general manager do? I think the play is to trade Kris Russell or Andrej Sekera. Let’s say the Oilers can offload Russell (who has value but is challenged playing off side second pair) while also acquiring Mark Pysyk from the Florida Panthers. Here are their Puck IQ numbers 5-on-5 against elites:

  • Russell: 396 minutes (31 percent); 42.40 DFF; -1.60 DFF%RC
  • Pysyk: 348 minutes (30.8 percent); 45.10 DFF; -2.90 DFF%RC

Pysyk has two advantages in my opinion: Lower cap (over $1 million in savings over Russell) and he’s a RH blue.

So, my idea is to go low key on blue, and start next season with Klefbom-Larsson; Nurse-Pysyk, Sekera-Benning. No. 7D can be Manning, with Caleb Jones ready to go when injuries hit (and injuries always hit defensemen). If Russell can be traded, but Pysyk can’t be acquired, then Jones makes the roster and one of Benning, Sekera, Jones, Lagesson, Bear, Bouchard or Persson wins the RH job on the second pair.

I’d do the same thing with goaltender, adding only Brian Elliott in free agency. Slow playing summer: For the new general manager, it’s the right thing to do on defense and in goal. We’ll talk forwards tomorrow.

Burke’s name came up late last week again, he must have interviewed well. I don’t have a horse in this race, Burke appears to be the most ‘outsider’ of the group. That isn’t a bad thing.

I’ll be writing about Jesse this week at The Athletic, it’s my opinion the new general manager should move heaven and earth to keep him around. JP had surgery, so his 2019-20 season may not be complete. That gives the organization an opportunity to bring him along at pace. I have no idea how much his surgery will improve performance but there’s too much talent here to send away at 10 cents on the dollar.

If Caufield is available at No. 8, Oilers would have to consider him. That said, there is going to be a difficult choice if I’m reading the tea leaves correctly. If I were to make a mock draft today, it might look like this:

  1. New Jersey: Jack Hughes
  2. NY Rangers: Kaapo Kakko
  3. Chicago: Bowen Byram
  4. Colorado: Alex Turcotte
  5. Los Angeles: Kirby Dach
  6. Detroit: Trevor Zegras
  7. Buffalo: Cole Caufield

That would leave Edmonton to choose between Dylan Cozens, Matthew Boldy, Athur Kaliyev, Peyton Krebs and Vasili Podkolzin. My guess is they take Cozens. I don’t think the Oilers would take Kaliyev, but it’s likely they are more than curious about Caufield. If he falls, there’s a good chance they take him. Why do I feel this way? Kailer Yamamoto. They want skill.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, we talk all the sports after a very busy weekend. Andy McNamara from TSN4Downs joins us to talk NFL draft, and former Oilers defenseman Doug Hicks drops in to chat Hockey Helps the Homeless. At 11, Jason Gregor pops in to chat Oil Kings, new Oilers general manager and NHL playoffs.

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177 Responses to "16 Shells From a Thirty-Ought Six"

  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    There has been so much talk over the last few months (and, in particular the last few weeks) about the new GM – lots of people have strong opinions on the candidates and that’s fair enough, however, personally, I don’t really have these strong opinions.

    At the end of the day, I really don’t know what any of the AGMs day to day tasks have been with their current organizations and how involved they have been in any decisions (trades, contract negotiations, drafts) that have been made, both positive and negative.

    What I do know is that, whoever is hired, be it Hunter, Gretzky, McCrimmon, Gillis, Nonis, Holland, Burke, Verbeek, Guerin, Futa, Mahoney, however, I will support that new GM with an absolute clean slate and without any regard for what has happened in the past.

    I will look forward with the new GM and analyze, and praise and critique as I feel appropriate, the decisions made going forward.

    Whoever it is – Go Oilers!

  2. Todd Macallan says:

    These Tom Waits titles are making my day, been clamoring for a Waits RE for years!

  3. edmoil3 says:

    I wonder if they plan to surround this GM with a proper staff or continue with the tree house rules.

  4. OriginalPouzar says:

    “I usually list a few possible options and needs here, but wanted to express a few opinions and ideas. So, here goes. First, I wouldn’t spend any assets on bringing in a pricey RH defenseman with so many attractive options on the way. Edmonton may have to suffer through another year of wobble, but if the scouts have been doing the job then Evan Bouchard should be able to slide in on the third pairing in the next 12 months. He’ll also help the power play.”

    I don’t disagree with this but, at the same time, if a stop-gap acquisition can be made, would you be in favor? I mean, I don’t see it happening, however it Stralman was willing to sign for 2 X $4.5M, would you be in favor?

    Right now we can project at least one rookie D on to the third pairing – lets say its Caleb Jones as 3RD (with Sekera as his partner) – yes, he’s played a ton of right side since turning pro, almost exclusively.

    I am absolutely fine with that pairing but what happens when Larsson gets hurt? Is Jones now moved up to 2RD and Russell at 1RD? This is what happened earlier this season and when things when off the rails for Jones.

    I wish we had any sort of idea in to where Persson might fit in next year – he may need to go straight to the AHL, however, maybe he is in fact one of those guys that will translate right away to the NHL and maybe be even to play 18 minutes? We can’t count on that, of course. He is a pure wild card at this point.

    I would like, at some point, to see Bouchard get some real minutes in the AHL playoffs this year. So far, extremely sheltered. I get that and I understand that. At the same time, it inhibits the information that we can gain on this player and where he is at the pro level.

  5. OriginalPouzar says:

    If management can get a clean disposition of Russell (no retained salary) then, 100%, it has to be done whether the cap space is spent on an upgrade at 2RD, on the 1B goalie or on a forward.

    I wish Hitchcock would have tried Sekera on his off-side with Nurse – he had a long opportunity to do so and wouldn’t move off the Nurse/Russell pairing. We could have gained some solid intel on the potential for Sekera to play 2RD with Nurse.

  6. OriginalPouzar says:

    Stealing my Brian Elliot idea – he is a definite target for the established veteran 1B with somewhat recent “success” as a starter in the league. Here is hoping Koskinen is simply better next year but, given performance this past year, I think we can be assured of some cold spells during his season – hopefully they are fewer and shorter but we need a goalie that can come for a stretch of games and give the team a chance to win nightly – Elliot should be able to do that.

  7. Jaxon says:

    Todd Macallan:
    These Tom Waits titles are making my day, been clamoring for a Waits RE for years!

    Me too!

  8. OriginalPouzar says:

    I don’t believe the new GM has to move heaven and earth to keep Jesse around – he simply needs to not trade him.

    Hopefully the assumption is not incorrect, however, I’m assuming that Jesse will sign a reasonable contract – even just one year at $1.5M (draft pedigree bump here).

    I think what the GM needs to do is speak to his coach when he hires him about giving Jesse some consistency – consistency in linemates and minutes – whether its second line or third line – run him out there, night in and night out, with some consistent linemates and let him get comfortable and play the game.

    The AHL is not an option – he will be in the NHL. Jesse “popping” even to be a solid middle six guy, would be massive for this organization. There is a reasonable chance of it happening, even this coming season.

    The contract will have a huge potential to be a value contract this coming season. There is no good reason to trade this player away unless real value can be extracted in the trade. I think the potential value to this organization trumps anything we can get in a trade.

  9. ArmchairGM says:

    Any idea what Bouchard’s 5v5 p/60 is in the AHL? 😁

  10. tileguy says:

    edmoil3:
    I wonder if they plan to surround this GM with a proper staff or continue with the tree house rules.

    If by staff you mean on the payroll of Katz, yes he will be surrounded.

  11. Jordan says:

    Question for people with bigger brains than me:

    Why isn’t Anders Lee getting any love on the UFA market? Guy’s been a consistent 40+ point guy for 5 years with the isles, he’s 6’3″ and 230 lbs. Does he have slow boots? Is he riding coat tails?

    For a guy who earned 5M last year on a 3.75M 4 year bridge, he looks like a guy that could easily pick up minutes on the 1st or second line, and as he plays LW and C, he could potentially play with CMD and Leon or with RNH or some other combination of players.

    Are people just expecting him to cost too much?

    Because I could see him on a 4 x 5-6m deal here and potentially be a RHN replacement, should we be in the market to move him. I also expect that having a 2nd line of Lee, Nuge and Jesse being a lot better able to mentor Jesse than most of the players he’s played with to date.

    Isn’t that how you’re supposed to bring a young player along? With two quality vets?

  12. jonrmcleod says:

    We all remember MacT’s crazy draft picks trade. But what about what Belichick has done with one second round pick!?

    From a Pats Pulpit article:

    2017
    Trade: Jimmy Garoppolo to San Francisco for 2018 2nd (2-43)

    2018
    Trade: 2-43 to Detroit for 2-51 and 4-117

    Trade: 2-51 to Chicago for 2019 2nd (2-56) and 4-105

    Trade: 4-105 to Cleveland for 4-114 and 6-178

    Trade: 4-114 to Detroit for 2019 3rd (3-73)

    Draft: LB Christian Sam with 6-178

    Draft: CB Duke Dawson Jr. (2-56) by trading 2-63 and 4-117

    So, to recap, during the 2018 draft the Patriots acquired second and third round picks in the 2019 draft, drafted linebacker Christian Sam, and used another one of the picks acquired to package for a trade-up to get cornerback Duke Dawson.

    2019
    Trade: 3-73 to Chicago for 3-87, 5-162, and 2020 4th

    Draft: CB Joejuan Williams (2-45) by trading 2-56 and 3-101

    Draft: RB Damien Harris with 3-87

    Draft: OT Yodny Cajuste (3-101) and QB Jarrett Stidham (4-133) by trading 3-97 and 5-162

    Most of the chips have been cashed in at this point. Damien Harris was a direct result of trading the 73rd pick to the Chicago Bears, while Joejuan Williams, Yodny Cajuste, and Jarrett Stidham were all acquired by trade using, in part, picks acquired from the original Jimmy Garoppolo deal.

    But we’re not done yet: the Patriots still have the Bears’ fourth round pick in 2020.

    Source: https://www.patspulpit.com/2019/4/29/18522135/update-jimmy-garoppolo-trade-new-england-patriots-san-francisco-49ers-2019-nfl-draft

  13. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Jordan,

    Lee was named captain at the start of the season, I’m under the impression he’ll re-sign.

  14. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    1 of 2:

    I’m a little late in posting results on this:

    I’ve done this for 3-4 years now, Had over 70 entries. Recall, Last year’s off-season questions:

    1) Who was our first pick: Bouchard :(Woogie63, Andy D, Tree called it), Ty was consensus

    2) What does Nurse sign for: 2 x $3.2MM (Lead, DBO, Greenshifter, Pinksocks, Airmchair close) Long-term was consensus

    3) What does Benning sign for: 2 x $1.9MM (OP, Bendleson, Oz, Woogie63, JustWatt, Alpine, Blainer, were close) lots of 1 years and 3 years, for lower

    4) What does Strome sign for?: 2 x $3.1MM (Blainer, Alpine, Greenshifter, Woodguy, Tree, Geranium, NPANCIROLI, were close), lots of 1 years: Russ said he was traded!

    5) Who is on the roster from farm 1: Kailer (and Bouchard) : Cooper was a big pick, half got Kailer

    6) Are Coach and GM back? They did start, both fired..: A few said they were gone: NPANCIROLI and Alpine were hot on Hunter…

    7) Who is Lucic’s centre: ? incomplete: a few had him gone

    8) Who is Jesse’s centre: Strome (for a nano-second): so incomplete

    9) Who is Kailer’s centre: McD (for a nano-second): Marody in Baker was consensus, or Strome in NHL MCSORLEY got it right (for a nano-second)

    10) All of Benning, Russell, Sek, Klef returned (Sek on IR): 20% called it right: Tree called all + Sek injured. (most had at least 1-2 gone)

    11) # of off-season roster player(s) for player(s) trades: none Only ToddMac, Tree, Jordan, called it

    12) Biggest off-season new signing: Tobias Reider : No one got it!

    *I’m declaring Woogie63 the winner: and giving my LT pay pal donation on his behalf*EDIT – Upon Further review, I’m calling Tree the winner, and Woogie63 gets the AGM role

    – Will put up one for this year: shorter though

  15. who says:

    Trading Russell, or Sekera, seems like a good idea at first glance. But I think you want to have a 2RD replacement in place before you do it.
    You suggest Pysyk LT, but you don’t mention what the acquisition cost would be? And is he at least Russells equal?
    Right now the Oilers have 5 guys who are capable of holding their own playing top 4 minutes. If you trade 1 of them away we are 1 injury away from giving a rookie, or Matt Benning, those minutes.

  16. JimmyV1965 says:

    Jordan:
    Question for people with bigger brains than me:

    Why isn’t Anders Lee getting any love on the UFA market?Guy’s been a consistent 40+ point guy for 5 years with the isles, he’s 6’3″ and 230 lbs.Does he have slow boots?Is he riding coat tails?

    For a guy who earned 5M last year on a 3.75M 4 year bridge, he looks like a guy that could easily pick up minutes on the 1st or second line, and as he plays LW and C, he could potentially play with CMD and Leon or with RNH or some other combination of players.

    Are people just expecting him to cost too much?

    Because I could see him on a 4 x 5-6m deal here and potentially be a RHN replacement, should we be in the market to move him.I also expect that having a 2nd line of Lee, Nuge and Jesse being a lot better able to mentor Jesse than most of the players he’s played with to date.

    Isn’t that how you’re supposed to bring a young player along?With two quality vets?

    I think most people assume he gets resigned by the Isles. You never know I guess.

  17. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    2018 Off-season poll. Winner gets the honour of being “GM of the year”

    – This year’s challenge. Winner gets a LT donation, and a huge amount of honour:

    The questions are to be answered as to what you think the Oilers will do:

    1) Who is the Oiler’s first pick?

    2) Who is the Oilers GM?

    3) Who is the Oilers Coach?

    4) How many draft and develop players make the roster opening night i.e. AHL playoff roster/Europe/College/Draft pick, etc (So Bouchard, Kailer, Benson, Marody, Persson, Jones, MacLeod, etc)

    5) What team is Lucic on next year?

    6) What team is Pool on next year?

    7) Which of Sek, Larsson, Benning, Nurse, Klef, Russell aren’t on open game line-up?

    8) Number of roster player for roster player(s) trades? Bonus for calling it

    9) Biggest off-season free-agent signing (by salary)

    10) Who is Koski’s back-up game 1?

    11) Which members of “OBC” sail on ?

    Please answer in the following format:
    1
    2
    3

  18. Cassandra says:

    A lot of posts on Eakins yesterday. For those that are interested there have been a number of articles at the Athletic that mentioned him.

    He’s the likely next coach for the Ducks.
    The players on the Gulls love him.
    Luke Schenn, who apparently had a revival at the end of the year with the Canucks, credits him with saving his career.

    etc. etc.

  19. ArmchairGM says:

    “Let’s say the Oilers can offload Russell (who has value but is challenged playing off side second pair) while also acquiring Mark Pysyk from the Florida Panthers. Here are their Puck IQ numbers 5-on-5 against elites:

    Russell: 396 minutes (31 percent); 42.40 DFF; -1.60 DFF%RC
    Pysyk: 348 minutes (30.8 percent); 45.10 DFF; -2.90 DFF%RC

    Pysyk has two advantages in my opinion: Lower cap (over $1 million in savings over Russell) and he’s a RH blue.”

    If Russell can be traded, I also have time Hainsey and Stralman:

    Hainsey: 561 minutes (41.3%); 50.40 DFF%; +1.30 DFF%RC
    Stralman: 296 minutes (37.3%); 47.40 DFF%; -1.70 DFF%RC

    Evolving Wild has Stralman most likely signing a 2 or 3-year contract at $3.5 – 4.4M.
    Hainsey is listed as most likely signing a similar deal, although at 38 I doubt anyone goes longer than 2 years. His recent contract was 2 x $3M, he certainly won’t be getting more than that and most likely less.

  20. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    I will look forward with the new GM and analyze, and praise and critique as I feel appropriate, the decisions made going forward.

    Whoever it is – Go Oilers!

    I will judge the GM based on his decisions, hope for the best and we’ll see if it turns out like always.

    Same as its ever been.

  21. godot10 says:

    1) My preference is to trade Benning for a forward, and sign Hainsey for one year to play with Nurse. Hainsey could be Stralman, but Stralman will probably want more than one year.

    2) Try hard to trade Russell. If you can, then re-sign Gravel.

    3) Manning would just be a veteran D on Bakersfield instead of Stanton.

  22. Alpine says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Thanks for posting this, Kinger. Interesting to look back at.

  23. elgruntus says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    2018 Off-season poll.Winner gets the honour of being “GM of the year”

    – This year’s challenge.Winner gets a LT donation, and a huge amount of honour:

    The questions are to be answered as to what you think the Oilers will do:

    1) Who is the Oiler’s first pick?

    2) Who is the Oilers GM?

    3) Who is the Oilers Coach?

    4) How many draft and develop players are on the team next year that weren’t at end of year? (So Bouchard, Kailer, Benson, Marody Persson, Jones, MacLeod, etc)

    5) What team is Lucic on next year?

    6) What team is Pool on next year?

    7) Which of Sek, Larsson, Benning, Nurse, Klef aren’t on open game line-up?

    8) Number of roster player for roster player(s) trades? Bonus for calling it

    9) Biggest off-season free-agent signing (by salary)

    10) Who is Koski’s back-up game 1?

    11) Which members of “OBC” sail on ?

    1 – Cozens
    2 – McCrimmon
    3 – Knoblach
    4 – 3 ( Bouchard, Benson, Jones)
    5 – Oilers
    6 – Oilers
    7 – Larsson
    8 – 2 (Larsson for Nylander)(Pysyk for Kassian)
    9 – Nemeth
    10 – Michal Neuvirth
    11 – Sutter (and all the pro scouts

  24. slopitch says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    There has been so much talk over the last few months (and, in particular the last few weeks) about the new GM – lots of people have strong opinions on the candidates and that’s fair enough, however, personally, I don’t really have these strong opinions.

    At the end of the day, I really don’t know what any of the AGMs day to day tasks have been with their current organizations and how involved they have been in any decisions (trades, contract negotiations, drafts) that have been made, both positive and negative.

    What I do know is that, whoever is hired, be it Hunter, Gretzky, McCrimmon, Gillis, Nonis, Holland, Burke, Verbeek, Guerin, Futa, Mahoney, however, I will support that new GM with an absolute clean slate and without any regard for what has happened in the past.

    I will look forward with the new GM and analyze, and praise and critique as I feel appropriate, the decisions made going forward.

    Whoever it is – Go Oilers!

    Well said OP. I think the hard part as fans is that we really don’t know a lot about the candidates involved. We pick our favorites based on an article here or a tweet or 2 there and try to align it with what we’d like to see from a gm. But as fans who want a data based mgmt team (well first and foremost competent) we are basing our bias off not much data. In dealing with the press at my startup, I can say that most of the time they don’t understand what my company does and often ask us to provide copy. Not to knock journalism but I don’t know how a writer would really know if the person they are featuring is “doing data” and “saying they do data”. For example, when Dellow was here, they had an outstanding hire but from what I’ve heard the organisation wasn’t utilising him enough. During that time it would have been very easy to write an article about the new Oilers and how they are leading the NHL in analytics.

    Im ranting a bit but I do think LT is right and your point is valid. We are gonna get a new GM and hope for the best and we wont know for several years. Godspeed Bobby!

  25. Litke 94 says:

    Oh boy… Rod Pedersen on Twitter saying that Ken Holland is next GM of the Oilers… Not sure what to think about that.

  26. Jethro Tull says:

    Litke 94:
    Oh boy… Rod Pedersen on Twitter saying that Ken Holland is next GM of the Riders… Not sure what to think about that.

    FIFY.

  27. Reja says:

    Litke 94:
    Oh boy… Rod Pedersen on Twitter saying that Ken Holland is next GM of the Oilers… Not sure what to think about that.

    Has Holland traded Russell Manning Gagne in the 3-1 yet.

  28. Melvis says:

    I can hardly waits for Hell Broke Luce-ic.

  29. Ben says:

    Not excited, if this Holland thing is true. This would seem to be the “soft transition to Keith Gretzky” scenario. Feels like the move of a frightened old man out of his depth.

    Bad water. Old blood.

  30. Jordan says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    1) Kaliyev

    2) Hunter

    3) Nelson

    4) **I’m presuming this question means which start the season with the Oilers. If it means something else, please clarify and I’ll review my answer**

    Marody (if healthy), Benson

    5) Oilers payroll

    6) Oilers

    7) None

    8) None

    9) Skinner

    10) Elliot

    11) This question is unpossible. They are like Lucic’s contract – toxic and completely immovable objects***

    ***Note – The contract is toxic, not the player or person. Don’t know the person, so can’t judge, and like the player. Just not at the current price point.

  31. LMHF#1 says:

    Ben:
    This would seem to be the “soft transition to Keith Gretzky” scenario.

    Yep. If they’re really hiring Holland, they’ve probably already told Keith the job is his in a couple years. Nothing changes. Rinse and repeat.

    Hoping this is wrong – but preparing for a heavy dose of ‘appeal to authority’ with zero credibility to back it up.

    “Oh yeah…I know Kevin and Craig from Hockey Canada…good guys…we won Olympic Gold ya know…”.

  32. Jordan says:

    Re: Holland – if he’s brought in, I can’t see it as GM – gotta be as POHO, and someone else is GMing.

    That seems more reasonable, and something that’s been talked about a fair bit as an approach that might work, and would be within the Oilers management wheelhouse.

  33. Ben says:

    LMHF#1: Yep. If they’re really hiring Holland, they’ve probably already told Keith the job is his in a couple years. Nothing changes. Rinse and repeat.

    Hoping this is wrong – but preparing for a heavy dose of ‘appeal to authority’ with zero credibility to back it up.

    “Oh yeah…I know Kevin and Craig from Hockey Canada…good guys…we won Olympic Gold ya know…”.

    Yeah, at some point Bobby will admit to season ticket holders that this move saved Daryl some $$ since he was able to re-use his Chiarelli announcement speech.

  34. Jethro Tull says:

    Holland’s rep was built winning the draft lottery twice (Datsyuk and Zetterberg) and having that Lidstrom guy, who was ok, I guess.

  35. Ben says:

    Following @JeffMarek

    “The analytics we use are gut analytics” – Wings GM Ken Holland on #MvsW moments ago

    (This was from a few years ago, but ahhhhhhhhhhh man. Please say it ain’t so.)

  36. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    – Kinger: Thanks for doing this. It’s amazing how far off we end up ever year. Very good reminder to everyone to click on the LT Paypal. Here’s my answers:

    1) Byram
    2) Hunter
    3) Capuano
    4) 4: Jones, Marody, Benson, Starret
    5) Lucic still an Oiler
    6) Pool still an Oiler
    7) Benning + Russell
    8) 2: netting Risto
    9) Chiasson for $2MM
    10) Starret
    11) MacT, Howson, Sutter, Scott, Green (hey a man can dream!)

  37. slopitch says:

    1) Caufield
    2) McCrimmon
    3) Woodcroft
    4) On the team? Whats that 40 games? I’ll say Benson, Marody, Jones
    5) LA
    6) Oilers
    7) Klef (poor guy is always hurt)
    8) 0 – neither of my trades qualify as they both involve non roster players
    Russell for 3rd
    Kadri for 2019 2nd + Bear (not roster player)
    9) Keith Kinkaid (1.5 million)
    10) See #9 although I just picked a guy
    11) Howson

    Roster opening night (I have to commit to my joke about Klef being hurt)

    Nurse – Larsson
    Sekera – Benning
    Jones – Legesson
    Persson

    Drai – McDavid – Kassian
    Nuge – Kadri – JP
    Benson – Khaira – Marody
    Gamberdella – Brodziak – Gagner
    Cave

    Koskinen
    Kinkaid

    Id love to get an upgrade on Benning but I dont think its there and I still dont like that bottom 6. I have 4-5 million in cap space that I project the Oilers to use on Taylor fucking Hall at the deadline! 😀 Bouchard plays 60 games in the AHL.

    I have no idea how the Oilers ditch the Lucic contract. I’ll say Lucic to LA for a 3rd with 2 million retained.

    Playoff roster!

    Nurse – Larsson
    Klefbom – Bouchard
    Sekera – Jones/Lagesson
    Persson

    Drai – McDavid – Kassian
    Hall – Kadri – JP
    Benson – Nuge – Marody
    Gamberdella – Khaira – Gagner
    Cave

    Koskinen
    Kinkaid

  38. pts2pndr says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    OriginalPouzar,

    I will look forward with the new GM and analyze, and praise and critique as I feel appropriate, the decisions made going forward.


    Whoever it is – Go Oilers!

    I will judge the GM based on his decisions, hope for the best and we’ll see if it turns out like always.

    Same as its ever been.

    Unless the new GM is able to make significant changes, as in a wholesale change to the pro scouting department and an analytics department to augment both pro scouting and drafting we are the mercy of dart board decisions, hoping that lady luck is on our side. Years of tradition unhampered by progress! All we can do as fans is hope for the best!

  39. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Jordan:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    4) **I’m presuming this question means which start the season with the Oilers.If it means something else, please clarify and I’ll review my answer**

    – For # 4: I mean any player on the AHL playoff roster/college/Europe/draft pick/Junoirs, Kailer etc that will be on opening day roster.

  40. Jaxon says:

    Turcotte outscored Hughes and everyone else in the USTNDP at 5-on-5 Primary Points/60 this season (5.25 to 3.17) by a large margin and in 5-on-5 Pts/60 (7.01 to 4.47). That is significant. Also, when speaking of Hughes historic NDP run, Matthews played in the NLA in his draft season and Eichel played in the NCAA. Had they played another year with the USTNDP team instead of moving on to more difficult leagues, their numbers would most likely have been higher. Farabee (4.24), Whalstrom (3.70), and Gruden (3.56) outpaced his 5-on-5 Primary Points / 60 last season as well. Hughes was 6th on his own team this year in 5-on-5 Primary Points /60 behind Trucotte (5.25), Gildon (3.81), Caufield (3.44), Boldy (3.37), and Zegras (3.35). Adjusting for age and league, Turcotte’s rate puts him just behind Crosby and McDavid for the best rate since 2005, just ahead of Svechnikov and Marner by the same metric. I find it astonishing that Turcotte, who has decent size and great speed and a complete game defensively and is seen as a coachable, responsible, character guy with good hockey genes isn’t in the running for 1st overall let alone possibly not even in the top 6 or 7 on some lists. I know watching Hughes is electrifying and recency bias at the U18s has everyone excited, but I think groupthink has a hold of many scouts and writers. I’m less sold on Hughes as generational. Franchise? Likely, but I’m not even certain about that when looking at his stats. And, although the league is less size dependent, it is still a big league and that can hamper development and ceilings for smaller players, so I’d be wary of drafting 166lbs Hughes 1st overall, especially with two to four very complete, big, fast, high scoring players in Kakko, Podkolzin, Cozens, and Turcotte in the draft. Turcotte outscores him, Cozens is within range of his production. Kakko and Podkolzin are scouted as very explosive, creative players. Kakko has outperformed Barkov, Laine and Rantanen at that age. And he’s responsible, big, fast with a high hockey IQ. I’d pick him long before I picked Hughes.

  41. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Jordan:
    Re: Holland – if he’s brought in, I can’t see it as GM – gotta be as POHO, and someone else is GMing.

    That seems more reasonable, and something that’s been talked about a fair bit as an approach that might work, and would be within the Oilers management wheelhouse.

    – Bob has now said that based on the quality of the GM candidates, they are no longer looking for a seperate POHO: the GM will be POHO, just like Chia was (reporting to Bob, who isn’t POHO, but GM reports into him anyways, and he reports to Katz)

  42. oilersfan says:

    doesnt Hainsey shoot left? How does he fit in for the OIlers?

    Stralman would obviously be awesome if he leaves Tampa and the Oilers can give away Russell to somebody…i doubt he would come…

  43. Wilde says:

    Jaxon,

    Yeah I just was posting on twitter the 5v5 P1/GP and P/GP rankings of this team compared to the past few years of the program and it’s pretty obvious that either A) Turcotte was running extremely hot for 11 games or B) Turcotte should be ranked 3rd easily

  44. texmex says:

    Litke 94,

    Who is Rod Pedersen? Serious question

  45. Wilde says:

    [And I have Kakko #1 too]

  46. Jethro Tull says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Bob has now said that based on the quality of the GM candidates, they are no longer looking for a seperate POHO: the GM will be POHO, just like Chia was (reporting to Bob, who isn’t POHO, but GM reports into him anyways, and he reports to Katz)

    I seem to remember some verbal about separating the roles in order to support the “Pete acted alone and with total authority” narrative?

  47. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    jonrmcleod,

    – Belechik is such an outlier in his league (and modern sport IMO): its such a copy-cat league. His assistants get poached all the time (and aren’t exceptional elsewhere). His draft strategy is never consistent, his rosters always changing, he moves guys out quick (except Brady): he gets superstars like Moss, or no names. They win in different ways…

    – The only thing consistent about his philosophy is that he doesn’t follow conventional wisdom

    – You wonder when time catches up with Brady, I’d like to Belechik stays on just to see if it’s really the Brady show, or his house. Would be interesting…

  48. Kraz says:

    I still can’t believe it took Nicholson 3 months to come up with a final list of Mark Hunter, McCrimmon, Ken Holland and Sean Burke. What a complete waste of time this whole process was.

  49. Litke 94 says:

    texmex,

    He is a well-known member of the Saskatchewan Roughriders community, let’s put it that way. Sort of the head media guy/insider for that franchise.

    Hence why him coming out with this, seemingly out of nowehere, seems so very strange.

  50. OriginalPouzar says:

    Looking forward to seeing what happens in the Guelph/Saginaw Game 7.

    Given I’m not sure that Samorukov would see the ice if assigned to the Condors (even though he played a few games last year and performed very well), I think I’d like to see Guelph advance and for Samorukov to continue his plus playoff performance.

    Also, it would likely lead to finally getting Ryan McLeod signed – I would assume he’d head to Bakersfied – again, not sure if he’d see the ice, probably wouldn’t play over Hebig or Vesel, etc. but it would be nice to get the contract done and for him to at least be with the pro team.

  51. Lowetide says:

    Jaxon: I find it astonishing that Turcotte, who has decent size and great speed and a complete game defensively and is seen as a coachable, responsible, character guy with good hockey genes isn’t in the running for 1st overall let alone possibly not even in the top 6 or 7 on some lists.

    Injury held him back early and he started moving up once he returned and flourished. He could land top five overall, that’s outstanding. The USHL hasnt had many go higher, this is a watershed draft upcoming for the league.

  52. ashley says:

    There is another way to look at the Reinhart trade.

    The GM is ultimately responsible for the decisions made. However, in most organizations, there is input from multiple sources. We saw this in the Oil Change series where in 2010, Stu MacGregor was weighing in on trade possibilities for the 2nd overall pick from Boston. One of his comments was “You can’t include Jordan in that trade. That’s crazy. Not worth it”, presumably referring to Eberle who had a lot of hype from team Canada performances but hadn’t played in the NHL yet.

    What blame can we lay at the feet of scouting department? It is their entire job to know the draft kids inside out, especially the top 50. If they thought Barzal or Connor were can’t miss players, they would have argued strongly against a trade of those picks. If they thought it was a deep draft, they would have argued against trading 33 as it might be more like a first round pick in 2015. Where were those voices? Or maybe they were there and ignored.

    I would argue that it is their job to be heard loud and clear in that situation. I think, more likely, the scouting department whiffed on their assessments of Barzal and Connor, and perhaps whiffed on the assessment of the depth of the 2015 pool. They weren’t the only club to miss on Barzal/Connor, but there were 4 unusual picks before #16 which set the OIlers up with a consensus top 10 pick at 16. A very unusual turn of events. The NYI scouting department, shocked as well with the unfolding of events, knew what they were looking at and consummated a trade in mere minutes.

    Chiarelli takes all the heat for that trade, but there is more than him to blame, in my opinion. If I was a GM coming in, I would look long and hard at the amateur scouting department.

  53. dulock says:

    Anyone think that the Sean Burke “Dark Horse” talk might be connected to him being an AGM. Either AGM to Kretzky as GM or Kretzky has indicated he’ll leave if they appoint another GM and Burke is his replacement? AGM would be a promotion for him from his current role.

  54. Kmart99 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    OriginalPouzar,

    I will look forward with the new GM and analyze, and praise and critique as I feel appropriate, the decisions made going forward.


    Whoever it is – Go Oilers!

    I will judge the GM based on his decisions, hope for the best and we’ll see if it turns out like always.

    Same as its ever been.

    Who’s your preferred choice for GM out of the names rumoured?

  55. JOFA says:

    If Holland is the choice, I will be extremely disappointed.

  56. Alpine says:

    Jaxon,

    I guess with Hughes, he’s done it over two seasons while the rest like Turcotte have only scored like that during one season. Caufield did have an impressive run with U17 team last year. Turcotte was further back of Hughes and Caufield on that same team.

    With Hughes you know he can consistently play at a high level. That’s probably why he will win the day. I’d pick Turcotte at 3 if I were Chicago.

    Also was it you who had determined guys with high production and low TOI in junior were more likely to bust? Seems like Hughes always runs the top line and should adjust to high TOI in the NHL easier.

  57. Bag of Pucks says:

    On one hand, LT says this fanbase has a lot of healing to do.

    On the other hand, he brings up the Reinhart trade again.

    As Sesame Street taught us, one of these things is not like the other…😉

  58. RonnieB says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Bob has now said that based on the quality of the GM candidates, they are no longer looking for a seperate POHO: the GM will be POHO, just like Chia was (reporting to Bob, who isn’t POHO, but GM reports into him anyways, and he reports to Katz)

    Was that said recently ?
    I know Bob said a few weeks ago that they were only looking for a GM, not a POHO. I didn’t interpret that to mean they intend to bestow both titles onto a rookie GM. That would seem to be incredibly reckless, even for Bob.

  59. JOFA says:

    Dreger just reporting: Holland not involved in Oiler GM process

    Thank the good Lord if true. Now let’s hope they report Hunter is out as well.

  60. Ben says:

    Anyone slightly concerned about the sudden emergence of this glut of USHL kids? Are there a couple of “rising tide” players in the group zooming the others? Or has the profile of a Jack Hughes simply drawn more attention to the other prospects surrounding him?

    Like, if Jack Hughes didn’t exist, are we sure we’d still be discussing names like Zegras at 8? Just curious…

  61. Wilde says:

    One more thing on Turcotte, guys-

    Checking out what’s publicly available from Mitch Brown’s Tracking Project, we see that the player slants heavily to playmaking, with crazy clean entry rates too.

    https://public.tableau.com/profile/mitchell.brown1648#!/vizhome/CHLComparison/Dashboard3

    (You can also see how Hughes is absolutely dominant in every facet)

  62. Wilde says:

    Ben:
    Anyone slightly concerned about the sudden emergence of this glut of USHL kids? Are there a couple of “rising tide” players in the group zooming the others? Or has the profile of a Jack Hughes simply drawn more attention to the other prospects surrounding him?

    Like, if Jack Hughes didn’t exist, are we sure we’d still be discussing names like Zegras at 8? Just curious…

    Boldy and Zegras have very concerning 5v5 points for possible top-ten, and that’s even post-zooming.

    In general I hope our guy is Cozens, or Kaliyev.

  63. ArmchairGM says:

    oilersfan:
    doesnt Hainsey shoot left? How does he fit in for the OIlers?

    Stralman would obviously be awesome if he leaves Tampa and the Oilers can give away Russell to somebody…i doubt he would come…

    Hainsey shoots left but plays on the right side for the Leafs, just like Russell… except with very good results. His numbers are juiced a bit by playing with Reilly, but he’s also getting 1st pairing comp in Toronto and won’t get that in Edmonton. I think he’s a reasonable option for a stopgap 2RD.

  64. godot10 says:

    oilersfan:
    doesnt Hainsey shoot left? How does he fit in for the OIlers?

    Stralman would obviously be awesome if he leaves Tampa and the Oilers can give away Russell to somebody…i doubt he would come…

    Hainsey played mostly on the right side in recent years.
    50-50 in Carolina.
    On the right side with Dumoulin against the toughest competition in Pittsburgh’s 2nd Cup run.
    On the right side with Reilly on the first pairing in Toronto for the last two years.

    I’m for signing him for one year to play 2nd pairing right D with Nurse. Trade Benning, and push down Russell to 3rd pairing (if he can’t be traded).

  65. who says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    2018 Off-season poll.Winner gets the honour of being “GM of the year”

    – This year’s challenge.Winner gets a LT donation, and a huge amount of honour:

    The questions are to be answered as to what you think the Oilers will do:

    1) Who is the Oiler’s first pick?

    2) Who is the Oilers GM?

    3) Who is the Oilers Coach?

    4) How many draft and develop players are on the team next year that weren’t at end of year? (So Bouchard, Kailer, Benson, Marody Persson, Jones, MacLeod, etc)

    5) What team is Lucic on next year?

    6) What team is Pool on next year?

    7) Which of Sek, Larsson, Benning, Nurse, Klef aren’t on open game line-up?

    8) Number of roster player for roster player(s) trades? Bonus for calling it

    9) Biggest off-season free-agent signing (by salary)

    10) Who is Koski’s back-up game 1?

    11) Which members of “OBC” sail on ?

    Please answer in the following format:
    1
    2
    3

    1. Krebs
    2. Mcrimmon
    3. Nelson?
    4. Three. Benson, Marody, Jones
    5. Oilers
    6. Oilers
    7. Benning, Sekera
    8. Two. Benning for a 3rd. Sekera and Yamamoto for Lehkonen
    9. Donskoi
    10. Kinkaid
    11. Sutter, Howson

  66. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    RonnieB: Was that said recently ?
    I know Bob said a few weeks ago that they were only looking for a GM, not a POHO. I didn’t interpret that to mean they intend to bestow both titles onto a rookie GM. That would seem to be incredibly reckless, even for Bob.

    – That’s for sure what he said and his intention.

    – Originally Bob thought they would seperate GM / POHO, but since he’s been meeting candidates, they are strong, so next guy will be same status and autonomy as Chia, just better

    – I think any credible GM hire would insist on being POHO here. The optics would be bad if new guy has less power than Chia (to solve for appearnce of OBC: which they dispute)

    – Ideally they would have hired a POHO first to run the search, but this isn’t what they are doing: Bob is POHO (untill he hires the GM who will be better than Chia was)

  67. Woogie63 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    1 of 2:

    I’m a little late in posting results on this:

    I’ve done this for 3-4 years now,Had over 70 entries.Recall, Last year’s off-season questions:

    1) Who was our first pick: Bouchard :(Woogie63, Andy D, Tree called it), Ty was consensus

    2) What does Nurse sign for: 2 x $3.2MM (Lead, DBO, Greenshifter, Pinksocks, Airmchair close) Long-term was consensus

    3) What does Benning sign for: 2 x $1.9MM (OP, Bendleson, Oz, Woogie63, JustWatt, Alpine, Blainer, were close) lots of 1 years and 3 years, for lower

    4) What does Strome sign for?: 2 x $3.1MM (Blainer, Alpine, Greenshifter, Woodguy, Tree, Geranium, NPANCIROLI, were close), lots of 1 years: Russ said he was traded!

    5) Who is on the roster from farm 1: Kailer (and Bouchard) : Cooper was a big pick, half got Kailer

    6) Are Coach and GM back? They did start, both fired..: A few said they were gone: NPANCIROLI and Alpine were hot on Hunter…

    7) Who is Lucic’s centre: ? incomplete: a few had him gone

    8) Who is Jesse’s centre: Strome (for a nano-second): so incomplete

    9) Who is Kailer’s centre: McD (for a nano-second): Marody in Baker was consensus, or Strome in NHL MCSORLEY got it right (for a nano-second)

    10) All of Benning, Russell, Sek, Klef returned (Sek on IR): 20% called it right: Tree called all + Sek injured.(most had at least 1-2 gone)

    11) # of off-season roster player(s) for player(s) trades: none Only ToddMac, Tree, Jordan, called it

    12) Biggest off-season new signing: Tobias Reider : No one got it!

    *I’m declaring Woogie63 the winner: and giving my LT pay pal donation on his behalf*EDIT – Upon Further review, I’m calling Tree the winner, and Woogie63 gets the AGM role

    – Will put up one for this year: shorter though

    Man I didn’t even get in the chair and I was demoted? In the spirit of the quality LT provides us each day I will make a pay pal donation as well.

  68. Jethro Tull says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    2018 Off-season poll.Winner gets the honour of being “GM of the year”

    – This year’s challenge.Winner gets a LT donation, and a huge amount of honour:

    The questions are to be answered as to what you think the Oilers will do:

    1) Who is the Oiler’s first pick?

    2) Who is the Oilers GM?

    3) Who is the Oilers Coach?

    4) How many draft and develop players make the roster opening night i.e. AHL playoff roster/Europe/College/Draft pick, etc (So Bouchard, Kailer, Benson, Marody, Persson, Jones, MacLeod, etc)

    5) What team is Lucic on next year?

    6) What team is Pool on next year?

    7) Which of Sek, Larsson, Benning, Nurse, Klef, Russell aren’t on open game line-up?

    8) Number of roster player for roster player(s) trades? Bonus for calling it

    9) Biggest off-season free-agent signing (by salary)

    10) Who is Koski’s back-up game 1?

    11) Which members of “OBC” sail on ?

    Please answer in the following format:
    1
    2
    3

    1) Peyton Krebs-Filter

    2) Mark Hunter

    3)Dave or Tim Hunter

    4) 3

    5) The Oilers

    6) The Oilers

    7) Sek, Larsson, Klef.

    8) 1, butit’s a biggy. Sek, Larsson and Klef for Zaitsev and Nylander

    9)Brian Elliott

    10) Brian Elliott

    11) Absolutely none of them.

  69. Ben says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    2018 Off-season poll.Winner gets the honour of being “GM of the year”

    – This year’s challenge.Winner gets a LT donation, and a huge amount of honour:

    The questions are to be answered as to what you think the Oilers will do:

    1) Who is the Oiler’s first pick?

    2) Who is the Oilers GM?

    3) Who is the Oilers Coach?

    4) How many draft and develop players make the roster opening night i.e. AHL playoff roster/Europe/College/Draft pick, etc (So Bouchard, Kailer, Benson, Marody, Persson, Jones, MacLeod, etc)

    5) What team is Lucic on next year?

    6) What team is Pool on next year?

    7) Which of Sek, Larsson, Benning, Nurse, Klef, Russell aren’t on open game line-up?

    8) Number of roster player for roster player(s) trades? Bonus for calling it

    9) Biggest off-season free-agent signing (by salary)

    10) Who is Koski’s back-up game 1?

    11) Which members of “OBC” sail on ?

    Please answer in the following format:
    1
    2
    3

    1. Dach
    2. Holland
    3. Gulutzan
    4. 4: Bouchard, Jones, Benson, Marody
    5. Florida
    6. Oilers
    7. Sekera (injury)
    8.2. Deal 1: Lucic (retained), Benning and Khaira to Arizona for Demers, Lucic then to FLA. Deal 2: Russell (ret) to Minnesota for Marcus Foligno.
    9. Nyquist
    10. Elliott
    11. Hahahaha none.

  70. RonnieB says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – That’s for sure what he said and his intention.

    – Originally Bob thought they would seperate GM / POHO, but since he’s been meeting candidates, they are strong, so next guy will be same status and autonomy as Chia, just better

    – I think any credible GM hire would insist on being POHO here.The optics would be bad if new guy has less power than Chia (to solve for appearnce of OBC: which they dispute)

    – Ideally they would have hired a POHO first to run the search, but this isn’t what they are doing: Bob is POHO (untill he hires the GM who will be better than Chia was)

    Interesting. I could see it if we were talking somebody like a Ron Hextall, but i can’t see a first time GM being given full autonomy.
    If we hire a rookie GM, my prediction is that the next POHO will be the current Senior VP of HO…Craig MacTavish.

  71. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Woogie63: Man I didn’t even get in the chair and I was demoted?In the spirit of the quality LT provides us each day I will make a pay pal donation as well.

    – Haha – sorry pal Tree’s call re: Sek injured, and no roster trades. Hey Keith is AGM: maybe you will become AGM like Keith…

  72. Darth Tu says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    2018 Off-season poll.Winner gets the honour of being “GM of the year”

    – This year’s challenge.Winner gets a LT donation, and a huge amount of honour:

    The questions are to be answered as to what you think the Oilers will do:

    1) Who is the Oiler’s first pick?

    2) Who is the Oilers GM?

    3) Who is the Oilers Coach?

    4) How many draft and develop players make the roster opening night i.e. AHL playoff roster/Europe/College/Draft pick, etc (So Bouchard, Kailer, Benson, Marody, Persson, Jones, MacLeod, etc)

    5) What team is Lucic on next year?

    6) What team is Pool on next year?

    7) Which of Sek, Larsson, Benning, Nurse, Klef, Russell aren’t on open game line-up?

    8) Number of roster player for roster player(s) trades? Bonus for calling it

    9) Biggest off-season free-agent signing (by salary)

    10) Who is Koski’s back-up game 1?

    11) Which members of “OBC” sail on ?

    Please answer in the following format:
    1
    2
    3

    1 – Peyton Krebs
    2 – Sean Burke
    3 – Ken Hitchcock (I honestly have no clue here, but stranger things have happened).
    4 – Bouchard, Benson and Marody
    5 – Oilers
    6 – Oilers
    7 – Sekera, Benning
    8 – 2, Benning for Connor Brown. Sekera to LA for a 3rd (note, I personally do not want to trade Sekera)
    9 – Brian Elliot
    10 – Brian Elliot
    11 – Not one of them, unless you count McTavish moving to be POHO.

  73. JimmyV1965 says:

    ArmchairGM: Hainsey shoots left but plays on the right side for the Leafs, just like Russell… except with very good results. His numbers are juiced a bit by playing with Reilly,but he’s also getting 1st pairing comp in Toronto and won’t get that in Edmonton. I think he’s a reasonable option for a stopgap 2RD.

    I think we’re much better off looking for a LHD who can play RHD. There’s just so very few realistic true RHD and we’re only looking for a stopgap for the next couple years. Hopefully the new GM can pull a rabbit out of the hat.

  74. defmn says:

    JOFA:
    Dreger just reporting: Holland not involved in Oiler GM process

    Thank the good Lord if true. Now let’s hope they report Hunter is out as well.

    John Shannon also saying Holland rumour is incorrect.

    https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/ken-holland-an-option-for-oilers-gm-but-team-hasnt-yet-made-its-choice

  75. John Chambers says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    2018 Off-season poll.Winner gets the honour of being “GM of the year”

    – This year’s challenge.Winner gets a LT donation, and a huge amount of honour:

    The questions are to be answered as to what you think the Oilers will do:

    1) Who is the Oiler’s first pick?

    2) Who is the Oilers GM?

    3) Who is the Oilers Coach?

    4) How many draft and develop players make the roster opening night i.e. AHL playoff roster/Europe/College/Draft pick, etc (So Bouchard, Kailer, Benson, Marody, Persson, Jones, MacLeod, etc)

    5) What team is Lucic on next year?

    6) What team is Pool on next year?

    7) Which of Sek, Larsson, Benning, Nurse, Klef, Russell aren’t on open game line-up?

    8) Number of roster player for roster player(s) trades? Bonus for calling it

    9) Biggest off-season free-agent signing (by salary)

    10) Who is Koski’s back-up game 1?

    11) Which members of “OBC” sail on ?

    Please answer in the following format:
    1
    2
    3

    1) Cozens
    2) McCrimmon
    3) John Stevens
    4) Jones, Bouchard, Benson, Marody, and Gambardella.
    5) Oilers
    6) Oilers
    7) Benning and Sekera are traded
    8) Benning in a package for Mike Hoffman
    9) Ryan Dzingel – $3.5M x 3
    10) Keith Kincaid
    11) MacT, Howson, and Paul Coffey

  76. Jethro Tull says:

    John Chambers: 1) Cozens
    2) McCrimmon
    3) John Stevens
    4) Jones, Bouchard, Benson, Marody, and Gambardella.
    5) Oilers
    6) Oilers
    7) Benning and Sekera are traded
    8) Benning in a package for Mike Hoffman
    9) Ryan Dzingel – $3.5M x 3
    10) Keith Kincaid
    11) MacT, Howson, and Paul Coffey

    Nah, John, It’s not “what would make a passable summer for the Oilers”, it’s “what do you think will actually happen?” 😉

  77. Bag of Pucks says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    OriginalPouzar,

    I will look forward with the new GM and analyze, and praise and critique as I feel appropriate, the decisions made going forward.


    Whoever it is – Go Oilers!

    I will judge the GM based on his decisions, hope for the best and we’ll see if it turns out like always.

    Same as its ever been.

    I’m going to avoid the tendency to make bold proclamations about the way I personally process information and how that process will govern my actions from now until the end of time.

    Excluding this post of course. 😏

    Remember kids, it’s not narcississm if it’s important to you! lol

  78. russ99 says:

    The surest way to give the new GM some fan goodwill is to make changes in personnel.

    It may take time to win a trade or for the plan to visibly show fruition on the ice, but dumping certain old school “saw em good” managers and say hiring a VP for analytics, a VP for cap management, etc. would go a heck of a long way.

  79. russ99 says:

    1) #27 – C Jakob Pelletier. Trade #8 and Puljujarvi’s rights to Tampa for #27 and J.T. Miller (salary retained)
    2) McCrimmon
    3) Kris Knoblauch
    4) Marody, Persson
    5) Kings (after buyout)
    6) Lightning – trade above
    7) Benning
    8) 1 – Benning for Connor Brown, also Gagner with salary retained for 3rd round pick (not a player for player trade)
    9) Brent Connolly
    10) Neuvirth
    11) MacT, Howson, Sutter, Scott, Green

  80. Jaxon says:

    Alpine:
    Jaxon,

    I guess with Hughes, he’s done it over two seasons while the rest like Turcotte have only scored like that during one season. Caufield did have an impressive run with U17 team last year. Turcotte was further back of Hughes and Caufield on that same team.

    With Hughes you know he can consistently play at a high level. That’s probably why he will win the day. I’d pick Turcotte at 3 if I were Chicago.

    Also was it you who had determined guys with high production and low TOI in junior were more likely to bust? Seems like Hughes always runs the top line and should adjust to high TOI in the NHL easier.

    For sure. Hughes scored better than those same teammates last season as a 16 yr old although Hughes has scored at the same rate while the others have improved. Actually, Turcotte, Caufield, Boldy, and Zegras all scored at the exact same rate in the USHL at 1.03 pts/gp last season as 16 yr olds.

    It was me who used TOI to weed out players based on the last 15 years where high scoring players who had low TOI/GP often flamed out our were inconsistent once they made the NHL. The problem with this season is that the US National Development players all had relatively low TOI/GP. I had been using 13.74 TOI as a cut off as it helped eliminate certain failed players while still keeping some stars like Hall, Stamkos, and Marner. But the entire USTNDP is under that level, so I’m not sure what to make of that. I think the coach has dish a deep team that he is running 3 lines fairly equally.
    5v5 TOI
    Caufield 13.72
    Hughes 13.42
    Turcotte 12.85
    Boldy 12.7
    Zegras 12.6
    Moynihan 11.04
    Beecher 10.54
    Gildon 10.3
    J Caufield 10.27

    Certainly skews my model, so I need to figure out how to compensate for this flaw. Last year I had the limit down at 13.25 to attempt to incur a few more quality players but it also failed to weed out a handful of busts as well. The sure things start to fade away between 13.75 and 13.25 and more flops with high scoring rates start to appear as well in that range. It’s the gray area. Of course, the are always exceptions.

  81. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: Hainsey shoots left but plays on the right side for the Leafs, just like Russell… except with very good results. His numbers are juiced a bit by playing with Reilly,but he’s also getting 1st pairing comp in Toronto and won’t get that in Edmonton. I think he’s a reasonable option for a stopgap 2RD.

    I took a look through some of the numbers and it really seems that Riley was zooming Hainsey and Hainsey was a giant drag on Riley.

  82. Wilde says:

    russ99: 1) #27 – C Jakob Pelletier. Trade #8 and Puljujarvi’s rights to Tampa for #27 and J.T. Miller (salary retained)

    Erring on the side of the realistic is always good in hypotheticals, but Tampa fleeces us here even by that standard

  83. YKOil says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    2018 Off-season poll.Winner gets the honour of being “GM of the year”

    – This year’s challenge. Winner gets a LT donation, and a huge amount of honour. The questions are to be answered as to what you think the Oilers will do:

    1) Who is the Oiler’s first pick?
    2) Who is the Oilers GM?
    3) Who is the Oilers Coach?
    4) How many draft and develop players make the roster opening night i.e. AHL playoff roster/Europe/College/Draft pick, etc (So Bouchard, Kailer, Benson, Marody, Persson, Jones, MacLeod, etc)
    5) What team is Lucic on next year?
    6) What team is Pool on next year?
    7) Which of Sek, Larsson, Benning, Nurse, Klef, Russell aren’t on open game line-up?
    8) Number of roster player for roster player(s) trades? Bonus for calling it
    9) Biggest off-season free-agent signing (by salary)
    10) Who is Koski’s back-up game 1?
    11) Which members of “OBC” sail on ?

    1. Krebs
    2. Hunter
    3. Nelson
    4. Benson, Persson, Jones
    5. Oilers
    6. Carolina
    7. Benning
    8. 2 .. Benning to TOR for Brown .. Pulju to CAR for Van Riemsdyk + pick
    9. Kincaid
    10. Kincaid
    11. Howson, Coffey and I’ll jump on the MacT to POHO bandwagon

    Also, I think the Holland rumour was a deliberate leak; a trial balloon if you will. I just feel poorly for the guy who got used like that (but hey, if you dance with the devil). If it does actually happen then KG will be our next GM in 2 years (the mentoring angle).

    Only interesting thing about Holland is if/how that opens up EDM-DET trade opportunities. Yzerman will be looking to do things over there and the one thing he has is Cap space.

    — say Manning for a mid-round draft pick or a flip of 2nds (EDM for NYI or SJ pick).

  84. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Edmonton should find a Mikael Backlund & staple Jesse to him on line 3 and PP2.

  85. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    YKOil: 1

    Also, I think the Holland rumour was a deliberate leak; a trial balloon if you will.

    – They have “leaked” Keith as GM a few times IMO, and Bob has tried to defend/protect the incumbents, put it as much on Chia, the culture is all good and the push-back has been strong

    – I hope they aren’t hiring by judging what the fans “react”, but you’ve probably nailed it

  86. YKOil says:

    russ99:
    1) #27 – C Jakob Pelletier.Trade #8 and Puljujarvi’s rights to Tampa for #27 and J.T. Miller (salary retained)

    Sorry, don’t mean to insult… but Tampa needs Cap space in the worst way so you are kind of giving them a Chia level deal there.

    If the combo of #8 and Pulju is being discussed with Tampa then it should be a much bigger deal, something that starts with their late #1, JT Miller and one of Gourde / Johnson for the 8th, Pulju, Khaira and Russell —- and that is really where the discussion starts. Would needs be a hell-of-a trade imo.

  87. godot10 says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Edmonton should find a Mikael Backlund & staple Jesse to him on line 3 and PP2.

    Benson should be stapled to Draisaitl.
    Puljujarvi should be stapled to Nugent-Hopkins

    JT Miller McDavid XXX
    Benson Draisaitl YYY
    Khaira Nugent-Hopkins Puljujarvi

    Sign Rieder or Rieder equivalent for veteran cover for Benson.

  88. YKOil says:

    FTR, I fully expect Tampa could send Callahan to Detroit in exchange for nice stuff also going Detroit’s way.

    Callahan and Tampa’s 2020 2nd for a salary retained Glendenning and Detroit’s 2019 CBJ 5th wouldn’t surprise me at all.

  89. OriginalPouzar says:

    Nurse confirmed going to the Worlds.

    Good stuff – hopefully he gets more ice than he did last year – If I remember correctly, Edmundson jumped him on the depth chart as the tourney went on.

  90. defmn says:

    Ryan Rishaug
    ‏Verified account @TSNRyanRishaug

    Ken Holland is not an option for the Oilers at this point and no permission has been sought from Det. to speak with him. No change from @DarrenDreger report last week, Holland is not on the short list of candidates for the job as of now.

  91. LadiesloveSmid says:

    godot10: Benson should be stapled to Draisaitl.
    Puljujarvi should be stapled to Nugent-Hopkins

    JT MillerMcDavid XXX
    Benson Draisaitl YYY
    Khaira Nugent-Hopkins Puljujarvi

    Sign Rieder or Rieder equivalent for veteran cover for Benson.

    Just need to get out from under Lucic at all costs. Goal #1 this summer.

  92. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Kmart99: Who’s your preferred choice for GM out of the names rumoured?

    I have no clue how they’ll perform or how they evaluate professional players or their philosophy about how to build a team.

  93. OriginalPouzar says:

    Canada’s roster (baring last minute changes, which do happen):

    Forwards

    Name Team Hometown
    Adam Henrique Anaheim Ducks Burford, Ont.
    Anthony Cirelli Tampa Bay Lightning Woodbridge, Ont.
    Anthony Mantha Detroit Red Wings Longueuil, Que.
    Dylan Strome Chicago Blackhawks Mississauga, Ont.
    John Tavares Toronto Maple Leafs Oakville, Ont.
    Jonathan Marchessault Vegas Golden Knights Cap-Rouge, Que.
    Kyle Turris Nashville Predators New Westminster, B.C.
    Mark Stone Vegas Golden Knights Winnipeg, Man.
    Mathieu Joseph Tampa Bay Lightning Laval, Que.
    Sam Reinhart Buffalo Sabres West Vancouver, B.C.
    Sean Couturier Philadelphia Flyers Bathurst, N.B.
    Tyler Bertuzzi Detroit Red Wings Sudbury, Ont.
    Defencemen

    Name Team Hometown
    Brandon Montour Buffalo Sabres Brantford, Ont.
    Damon Severson New Jersey Devils Melville, Sask.
    Dante Fabbro Nashville Predators Coquitlam, B.C.
    Darnell Nurse Edmonton Oilers Hamilton, Ont.
    Shea Theodore Vegas Golden Knights Langley, B.C.
    Thomas Chabot Ottawa Senators Sainte-Marie-de-Beauce, Que.
    Troy Stecher Vancouver Canucks Richmond, B.C.
    Goaltenders

    Name Team Hometown
    Carter Hart Philadelphia Flyers Sherwood Park, Alta.
    Mackenzie Blackwood New Jersey Devils Thunder Bay, Ont.
    Matt Murray Pittsburgh Penguins Thunder Bay, Ont.

  94. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I took a look through some of the numbers and it really seems that Riley was zooming Hainsey and Hainsey was a giant drag on Riley.

    Yeah Hainsey has found the cliff.

    Still a NHLer but not sure he’s an upgrade on Russell at this time.

  95. Darth Tu says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Yeah Hainsey has found the cliff.

    Still a NHLer but not sure he’s an upgrade on Russell at this time.

    Agreed, I think Hainsey versus Russell is kind of a “grass is greener” option. Russell is younger, but I understand that Hainsey’s contract is up this year and we’re assuming he’d be signing for 1 year at $2 million or so. I guess it helps out cap wise, but I don’t see Hainsey making the D-Corps any better for next season.

  96. ChiliChunk says:

    Jethro Tull: 8) 1, butit’s a biggy. Sek, Larsson and Klef for Zaitsev and Nylander

    yikes

  97. godot10 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    1) Dach (My list… Byram, Cozens, Krebs, maybe Boldy, Dach)…assuming JH, KK, AT gone
    2) Burke
    3) Hitchcock
    4) Two, Benson and Persson
    5) Oilers
    6) Oilers
    7) Benning, Russell
    8) Benning for JT Miller, Russell and Hawkey for Perreault and Comrie, $2 mil retained on Russell.
    9) Ron Hainsey 1 year $3 million
    10) Eric Comrie
    11) No one. The undead live on.

  98. YKOil says:

    Darth Tu: Agreed, I think Hainsey versus Russell is kind of a “grass is greener” option.Russell is younger, but I understand that Hainsey’s contract is up this year and we’re assuming he’d be signing for 1 year at $2 million or so.I guess it helps out cap wise, but I don’t see Hainsey making the D-Corps any better for next season.

    It does: gather an asset back via the trade of Russell, cut the Cap-hit for 2019-20, and cut the full Cap-hit the next year. If the new GM determines that he has a year of ‘wobble’ to work with – under the heading of “fixing the last guy’s bulls&*t work needed to happen first” – then that is a viable way forward.

  99. Bulging Twine says:

    Jaxon:
    Turcotte outscored Hughes and everyone else in the USTNDP at 5-on-5 Primary Points/60 this season (5.25 to 3.17) by a large margin and in 5-on-5 Pts/60 (7.01 to 4.47). That is significant. Also, when speaking of Hughes historic NDP run, Matthews played in the NLA in his draft season and Eichel played in the NCAA. Had they played another year with the USTNDP team instead of moving on to more difficult leagues, their numbers would most likely have been higher. Farabee (4.24), Whalstrom (3.70), and Gruden (3.56) outpaced his 5-on-5 Primary Points / 60 last season as well. Hughes was 6th on his own team this year in 5-on-5 Primary Points /60 behind Trucotte (5.25), Gildon (3.81), Caufield (3.44), Boldy (3.37), and Zegras (3.35). Adjusting for age and league, Turcotte’s rate puts him just behind Crosby and McDavid for the best rate since 2005, just ahead of Svechnikov and Marner by the same metric. I find it astonishing that Turcotte, who has decent size and great speed and a complete game defensively and is seen as a coachable, responsible, character guy with good hockey genes isn’t in the running for 1st overall let alone possibly not even in the top 6 or 7 on some lists. I know watching Hughes is electrifying and recency bias at the U18s has everyone excited, but I think groupthink has a hold of many scouts and writers. I’m less sold on Hughes as generational. Franchise? Likely, but I’m not even certain about that when looking at his stats. And, although the league is less size dependent, it is still a big league and that can hamper development and ceilings for smaller players, so I’d be wary of drafting 166lbs Hughes 1st overall, especially with two to four very complete, big, fast, high scoring players in Kakko, Podkolzin, Cozens, and Turcotte in the draft. Turcotte outscores him, Cozens is within range of his production. Kakko and Podkolzin are scouted as very explosive, creative players. Kakko has outperformed Barkov, Laine and Rantanen at that age. And he’s responsible, big, fast with a high hockey IQ. I’d pick him long before I picked Hughes.

    Wow! Great info. Thanks.
    I’d be interested to hear how you would order:
    Dach, Cozens, Zegras, Krebs, Boldy
    as I am trying to formulate my own board

  100. Bulging Twine says:

    I would like to get a GM with a maniacical work ethic like Belicheck and some of the other NFL GM’s

  101. Bulging Twine says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Canada’s roster (baring last minute changes, which do happen):

    Defencemen

    NameTeamHometown
    Brandon MontourBuffalo SabresBrantford, Ont.
    Damon SeversonNew Jersey DevilsMelville, Sask.
    Dante FabbroNashville PredatorsCoquitlam, B.C.
    Darnell NurseEdmonton OilersHamilton, Ont.
    Shea TheodoreVegas Golden KnightsLangley, B.C.
    Thomas ChabotOttawa SenatorsSainte-Marie-de-Beauce, Que.
    Troy StecherVancouver CanucksRichmond, B.C.

    A lot of offensive D men there. I suspect Nurse will get PK time.
    Vigneault likes D men who can make long passes and offence from the D. Will be interesting to see what kind of 5 on 5 ice time Nurse gets.
    Nurse seems like the veteran amongst that group!

  102. Jaxon says:

    Bulging Twine: Wow!Great info.Thanks.
    I’d be interested to hear how you would order:
    Dach, Cozens, Zegras, Krebs, Boldy
    as I am trying to formulate my own board

    I’m pretty high on Cozens. I’m not that high on Dach as his stats don’t impress me much. I don’t see much daylight between any of Zegras or Boldy. They’ve had nearly identical stats for two years. Krebs is last by a fair margin in my books. His 5v5 production leads que a ways behind the pack, this year and historically.
    Cozens, Dach, Boldy, Zegras, Krebs. The Americans have me flummoxed. I don’t know what to make of their okay products rates and their low TOI. Maybe they should be ahead of Dach but If be wary of them. Someone is zooming sometime on that team with 8 players producing in the same range and Turcotte producing more.

  103. gimme shelter says:

    I hope for everybody in Oiler land it is not “KiF Gretzky as GM.
    I hope the Oil sign Brandon Pirri from Vegas.

  104. Bling says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I don’t believe the new GM has to move heaven and earth to keep Jesse around – he simply needs to not trade him.

    Hopefully the assumption is not incorrect, however, I’m assuming that Jesse will sign a reasonable contract – even just one year at $1.5M (draft pedigree bump here).

    I think what the GM needs to do is speak to his coach when he hires him about giving Jesse some consistency – consistency in linemates and minutes – whether its second line or third line – run him out there, night in and night out, with some consistent linemates and let him get comfortable and play the game.

    The AHL is not an option – he will be in the NHL. Jesse “popping” even to be a solid middle six guy, would be massive for this organization. There is a reasonable chance of it happening, even this coming season.

    The contract will have a huge potential to be a value contract this coming season.There is no good reason to trade this player away unless real value can be extracted in the trade.I think the potential value to this organization trumps anything we can get in a trade.

    If they do keep him — and I think they should — they need to commit to him for another two years IMO.

    Post FAI surgery, around 90-95% will be pain free, but that is at one year post-op. The organization said he would be 100% at training camp, but that seems like more of a best-case scenario. The fact that he had bilateral FAI is interesting — you wonder to what degree his mobility and skating was affected. I recall that he had some knee problems after getting drafted which prevented him from training in the off-season. I am speculating, but perhaps that was a bit of a red herring, as knee pain can originate from the hip.

    Bottom line: management, coaches, and fans have to be patient.

    I think the ideal solution would be to have him accept a conditioning stint in the AHL following training camp. That would require buy-in from the player as well.

  105. ArmchairGM says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Yeah Hainsey has found the cliff.

    Still a NHLer but not sure he’s an upgrade on Russell at this time.

    I’m not seeing a cliff in the numbers. What do you see that I don’t?

  106. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bag of Pucks: I’m going to avoid the tendency to make bold proclamations about the way I personally process information and how that process will govern my actions from now until the end of time.

    Excluding this post of course.

    Remember kids, it’s not narcississm if it’s important to you! lol

    What in the world are you getting at now?

    I can’t imagine anything from my post that would ruffle any feathers – at least not with some sort of personal issue.

  107. OriginalPouzar says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Edmonton should find a Mikael Backlund & staple Jesse to him on line 3 and PP2.

    You mean Ryan Nugent Hopkins?

  108. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    ArmchairGM: I’m not seeing a cliff in the numbers. What do you see that I don’t?

    – Hainsey was fine when he wasn’t being slotted into top-pairing.

    – He’s like Russell: bonafide NHL D, being asked to do too much because they are vets

  109. OriginalPouzar says:

    YKOil: It does: gather an asset back via the trade of Russell, cut the Cap-hit for 2019-20, and cut the full Cap-hit the next year.If the new GM determines that he has a year of ‘wobble’ to work with – under the heading of “fixing the last guy’s bulls&*t work needed to happen first” – then that is a viable way forward.

    I don’t imagine that a clean disposition of Russell will garner any sort of asset in return – the key is the clean disposition and the $4M of cap space – an asset would be gravy but I don’t see it.

  110. Glovjuice says:

    Jaxon:
    Turcotte outscored Hughes and everyone else in the USTNDP at 5-on-5 Primary Points/60 this season (5.25 to 3.17) by a large margin and in 5-on-5 Pts/60 (7.01 to 4.47). That is significant. Also, when speaking of Hughes historic NDP run, Matthews played in the NLA in his draft season and Eichel played in the NCAA. Had they played another year with the USTNDP team instead of moving on to more difficult leagues, their numbers would most likely have been higher. Farabee (4.24), Whalstrom (3.70), and Gruden (3.56) outpaced his 5-on-5 Primary Points / 60 last season as well. Hughes was 6th on his own team this year in 5-on-5 Primary Points /60 behind Trucotte (5.25), Gildon (3.81), Caufield (3.44), Boldy (3.37), and Zegras (3.35). Adjusting for age and league, Turcotte’s rate puts him just behind Crosby and McDavid for the best rate since 2005, just ahead of Svechnikov and Marner by the same metric. I find it astonishing that Turcotte, who has decent size and great speed and a complete game defensively and is seen as a coachable, responsible, character guy with good hockey genes isn’t in the running for 1st overall let alone possibly not even in the top 6 or 7 on some lists. I know watching Hughes is electrifying and recency bias at the U18s has everyone excited, but I think groupthink has a hold of many scouts and writers. I’m less sold on Hughes as generational. Franchise? Likely, but I’m not even certain about that when looking at his stats. And, although the league is less size dependent, it is still a big league and that can hamper development and ceilings for smaller players, so I’d be wary of drafting 166lbs Hughes 1st overall, especially with two to four very complete, big, fast, high scoring players in Kakko, Podkolzin, Cozens, and Turcotte in the draft. Turcotte outscores him, Cozens is within range of his production. Kakko and Podkolzin are scouted as very explosive, creative players. Kakko has outperformed Barkov, Laine and Rantanen at that age. And he’s responsible, big, fast with a high hockey IQ. I’d pick him long before I picked Hughes.

    Agreed, Hughes at the WJC was so far even from Eichel to my eye that I am actually worried about him even being in the top 8 of this draft 5 years from now.

  111. Reja says:

    Bulging Twine:
    I would like to get a GM with a maniacical work ethic like Belicheck and some of the other NFL GM’s

    What percentage to winning do you think a generational forward Mcdavid Ovechkin Crosby compared to a Superstar QB Brady Manning Bree’s in my eyes a superstar QB is much much higher.

  112. Reja says:

    Glovjuice: Agreed, Hughes at the WJC was so far even from Eichel to my eye that I am actually worried about him even being in the top 8 of this draft 5 years from now.

    If you pass on Hughes in the 1 or 2 slot and he turns out to be Dynamite player and your pick is So-So player kiss your hockey career good bye in management passing on Hughes could haunt you for your natural life.

  113. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: I took a look through some of the numbers and it really seems that Riley was zooming Hainsey and Hainsey was a giant drag on Riley.

    “Really seems”
    “Giant drag”

    Strong language. Hainsey’s CF% is 1 point higher with Rielly, FF% is half a point higher and SF% is half a point lower. Doesn’t really speak of being “REALLY” zoomed. Hainsey’s number are MUCH better with Dermott (2nd most common partner) than with Rielly.

  114. ArmchairGM says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Hainsey was fine when he wasn’t being slotted into top-pairing.

    – He’s like Russell:bonafide NHL D, being asked to do too much because they are vets

    By what metric? He spent about 3/4 of his season – over 1000 minutes – on the 1st pairing.

  115. Tapdog says:

    Can someone please post the link to the spreadsheet of the 2019 UFA/RFA signing predictions that was posted a short time ago. I can’t seem to find it now?

    Thank you.

  116. Glovjuice says:

    godot10: Hainsey played mostly on the right side in recent years.
    50-50 in Carolina.
    On the right side with Dumoulin against the toughest competition in Pittsburgh’s 2nd Cup run.
    On the right side with Reilly on the first pairing in Toronto for the last two years.

    I’m for signing him for one year to play 2nd pairing right D with Nurse.Trade Benning, and push down Russell to 3rd pairing (if he can’t be traded).

    Is he really going to sign a one year deal ?

  117. ArmchairGM says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Yeah Hainsey has found the cliff.

    Still a NHLer but not sure he’s an upgrade on Russell at this time.

    Hainsey at 5v5 had 17 points this year, only twice in his career has he had more (19), last year and 10 years ago. Giveaways were down, takeaways up and hits up.

    Hainsey’s CF% was the highest it’s been in 3 years, FF% highest in 4, SF% highest in 4, GF% 2nd highest in 8 years, etc.

    His DFF% is over 50 while being +1.3 RC against elites, which was 41.3% of his total TOI. These numbers are all above his average of the past 6 years.

    If this is the cliff, I’d like some of what he’s having.

  118. New Improved Darkness says:

    How many people here know that Bruce was recently a four-time international SWAT champion—with guile and gumption galore?

    On 23 September 2001, a man whose boat capsized on Lake Huron near the Bruce complex squeezed through a gate, entered an office building and phoned for help—all undetected.

    The pre-9/11 mandate of the security team was to delay attackers for 17 minutes, until local police could respond. Reliance was on passive measures such as fencing and locks.

    The “transformed” post 9/11 security team is described as being larger than the police force of the city of Kingston. Force members are permitted to carry firearms and have powers of arrest. The force possesses armoured vehicles, water craft, and the plant is now triple-fenced.

    In May 2008, the Bruce Nuclear Response Team won the U.S. National SWAT Championship, defeating 29 other teams from 4 countries—the first time a Canadian team won an international SWAT event—winning again in 2009, 2010, and 2011.

    Sixteen shells from a thirty-aught six seriously birthmarks a Birkenstalker’s birchbark. Thread no slender canoes through rifts in the new improved nettles.

    Back at the corral, 16 shells is just the clockwise conch of the RCMP’s Musical Ride; each shell packing a 160-grain Imperial payload.

    [*] More obscurely, it’s also 4 shells to an arm, and 4 arms to a conch—but like firkins, we don’t talk about arms much, except in the four-abreast pinwheel formation, and then it’s momentarily useful. Besides, why ask for three arms when you can ask for a short conch instead? (Not to be confused with the four-armed shiv-er from the Gangs of New York era, in which the Trojan pony arrives on payday Friday wearing a large rain sheet, exposing four forward-facing kneecaps, only you’re already far too sloshed—and nosing ’round the final bender into the long, shitfaced stretch—to uptake minor equestrian abnormalities.)

    After Japan contracted a bad case of mothball flu, Bruce emerged as the largest nuclear steam yard the world over, yet still the Bettman point stubbornly persists.

    Edit: added a small gangland gratuity.

  119. ArmchairGM says:

    Glovjuice: Is he really going to sign a one year deal ?

    He’s 38, he won’t get offended by a 1 year offer. His last contract was for 2 years, the previous one was 3 years, the one before that was 1 year. He won’t be expecting, nor looking for, a mid or long term deal.

  120. Lowetide says:

    Tapdog:
    Can someone please post the link to the spreadsheet of the 2019 UFA/RFA signing predictions that was posted a short time ago. I can’t seem to find it now?

    Thank you.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15E1qqh3OfHvvhbv_pICfKT7VR1jJEVhWQOyKviWLN54/edit?usp=sharing

  121. Glovjuice says:

    1) Who is the Oiler’s first pick? A head down skating, big forward.
    2) Who is the Oilers GM? A cheating junior GM.
    3) Who is the Oilers Coach? Someone old.
    4) How many draft and develop players make the roster opening night i.e. AHL playoff roster/Europe/College/Draft pick, etc (So Bouchard, Kailer, Benson, Marody, Persson, Jones, MacLeod, etc) 2
    5) What team is Lucic on next year? Oilers press box
    6) What team is Pool on next year? Oilers press box
    7) Which of Sek, Larsson, Benning, Nurse, Klef, Russell aren’t on open game line-up? All.
    8) Number of roster player for roster player(s) trades? Bonus for calling it 0
    9) Biggest off-season free-agent signing (by salary) some better goalie than Koskinen (2.75)
    10) Who is Koski’s back-up game 1? See 9
    11) Which members of “OBC” sail on ? Zero

  122. leadfarmer says:

    Wilde:
    One more thing on Turcotte, guys-

    Checking out what’s publicly available from Mitch Brown’s Tracking Project, we see that the player slants heavily to playmaking, with crazy clean entry rates too.

    https://public.tableau.com/profile/mitchell.brown1648#!/vizhome/CHLComparison/Dashboard3

    (You can also see how Hughes is absolutely dominant in every facet)

    Samurokov looks good
    Man Bouchards zone entry D is Russell like

  123. Glovjuice says:

    ArmchairGM: He’s 38, he won’t get offended by a 1 year offer. His last contract was for 2 years, the previous one was 3 years, the one before that was 1 year.He won’t be expecting,nor looking for, a mid or long term deal.

    Ah, ok, makes sense then.

  124. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: “Really seems”
    “Giant drag”

    Strong language. Hainsey’s CF% is 1 point higher with Rielly, FF% is half a point higher and SF% is half a point lower. Doesn’t really speak of being “REALLY” zoomed. Hainsey’s number are MUCH better with Dermott (2nd most common partner) than with Rielly.

    The spoke in Riley’s numbers without Hainsey are material – he’s 60% goal share without Hainsey.

  125. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    ArmchairGM: By what metric? He spent about 3/4 of his season – over 1000 minutes – on the 1st pairing.

    – By all the metrics you cited below! Babcock loved him, trusted him over others. Played him 1st pairing too much at 38. As a 2nd pair guy or a 3rd breaking in a young gun he will be value for whatever team signs him next year IMO at 16-18 minutes a game (not the 20+ he played this year)

    – IF he wants to play, for $3MM ish: good possession #’s: Leafs will miss him. He doesn’t get much love, but is still steady, healthy, doesn’t miss many games, smart, IMO: not done at all.

  126. Bulging Twine says:

    Jaxon: I’m pretty high on Cozens. I’m not that high on Dach as his stats don’t impress me much. I don’t see much daylight between any of Zegras or Boldy. They’ve had nearly identical stats for two years. Krebs is last by a fair margin in my books. His 5v5 production leads que a ways behind the pack, this year and historically.
    Cozens, Dach, Boldy, Zegras, Krebs. The Americans have me flummoxed. I don’t know what to make of their okay products rates and their low TOI. Maybe they should be ahead of Dach but If be wary of them. Someone is zooming sometime on that team with 8 players producing in the same range and Turcotte producing more.

    Thanks Jaxon
    Much of the industry is flummoxed on the Americans.

  127. OriginalPouzar says:

    Samorukov out there defending the one-goal lead late and gets an assist on the empty netter. Only 5 shots on net for him tonight.

    Guelph come back from 3-1 for the second series in a row – wow. Wait, were they down 3-0 to London or just 3-1, can’t remember.

    Anyways, time for Ryan McLeod to sign his ELC and maybe spend some time with the Condors and experiencing the pro game.

  128. ArmchairGM says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – By all the metrics you cited below! Babcock loved him, trusted him over others.Played him 1st pairing too much at 38.As a 2nd pair guy or a 3rd breaking in a young gun he will be value for whatever team signs him next year IMO at 16-18 minutes a game (not the 20+ he played this year)

    – IF he wants to play, for $3MM ish: good possession #’s: Leafs will miss him.He doesn’t get much love, but is still steady, healthy, doesn’t miss many games, smart,IMO: not done at all.

    The metrics I cited show he did fine at 1st pairing. He was better at 1st pairing than Russell was at 2nd pair.

  129. Professor Q says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Samorukov out there defending the one-goal lead late and gets an assist on the empty netter. Only 5 shots on net for him tonight.

    Guelph come back from 3-1 for the second series in a row – wow.Wait, were they down 3-0 to London or just 3-1, can’t remember.

    Anyways, time for Ryan McLeod to sign his ELC and maybe spend some time with the Condors and experiencing the pro game.

    Correct, London was up 3-0 and I was worried I wouldn’t be able to see the Friday Game 5 as they were winning like 7-2 and 7-1 type games (a sweep seemed like it could happen after those first 3 games).

    Then Guelph turned on the afterburners and dominated for 4 straight games, and baffled everyone.

  130. greenshifter says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    2018 Off-season poll.Winner gets the honour of being “GM of the year”

    – This year’s challenge.Winner gets a LT donation, and a huge amount of honour:

    The questions are to be answered as to what you think the Oilers will do:

    1) Who is the Oiler’s first pick?

    2) Who is the Oilers GM?

    3) Who is the Oilers Coach?

    4) How many draft and develop players make the roster opening night i.e. AHL playoff roster/Europe/College/Draft pick, etc (So Bouchard, Kailer, Benson, Marody, Persson, Jones, MacLeod, etc)

    5) What team is Lucic on next year?

    6) What team is Pool on next year?

    7) Which of Sek, Larsson, Benning, Nurse, Klef, Russell aren’t on open game line-up?

    8) Number of roster player for roster player(s) trades? Bonus for calling it

    9) Biggest off-season free-agent signing (by salary)

    10) Who is Koski’s back-up game 1?

    11) Which members of “OBC” sail on ?

    Please answer in the following format:
    1
    2
    3

    1. Broberg
    2. McCrimmon
    3. Gulutzan
    4. 2. Benson & Bouchard
    5. Oilers
    6. Oilers
    7. Larsson
    8. Larsson & Jones for A. Johnsson, T. Moore & 4th
    9. Tanev
    10. Starrett
    11. Sutter and Oilers cap expert (ol whatshisname)

    Thanks Kinger!

  131. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    ArmchairGM,

    Rielly’s 3 most common partners via various metrics:

    With CF% With
    Ron Hainsey 49.6
    Jake Muzzin 57.4
    Jake Gardiner 58.3

    With HDCF% With
    Ron Hainsey 49.7
    Jake Muzzin 59.3
    Jake Gardiner 56.4

    With GF% With
    Ron Hainsey 58.8
    Jake Muzzin 64.7
    Jake Gardiner 79.0

    That’s a guy who was carried by Rielly in a big way.

    Still did ok with Dermott, about the same as Dermott did without him.

    Dermott was about the same with Ozhiganov although I bet that’s 3rd pair.

    Dermott was much better with Gardiner (natch).

    I like Hainsey and he was a killer with PIT late in his career but the best I can say about his year with TOR this year was that he was better than Zaitsev.

    He’s 38.

    He’s lasted long than most, but expecting a 1st pair defender or even an everyday top 4 guy isn’t a good idea anymore.

  132. ArmchairGM says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I’m not seeing how he wouldn’t be an upgrade on Russell for one year though.

  133. Bulging Twine says:

    I love a defenceman who joins the rush. Adds that extra vital passing option.

  134. Bulging Twine says:

    https://chu.tbe.taleo.net/chu03/ats/careers/v2/viewRequisition?org=MAPLELEAFSPORTS&cws=39&rid=4259

    Maple Leafs hiring a Developer, Hockey Research & Development

    Go work under cover for the Oilers

  135. Tapdog says:

    Lowetide,

    Awesome thanks LT

  136. Gerta Rauss says:

    Cogliano ties it shorthanded for Dallas

    2-2 with 6 min remaining

    *edit STL scores and is up 1 late

  137. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar: The spoke in Riley’s numbers without Hainsey are material – he’s 60% goal share without Hainsey.

    Does PuckIQ have WOWY vs Elites? I expect Reilly isn’t playing the elites as much when he isn’t wit Hainsey.

  138. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    ArmchairGM,

    Rielly’s 3 most common partners via various metrics:

    WithCF% With
    Ron Hainsey49.6
    Jake Muzzin57.4
    Jake Gardiner58.3

    WithHDCF% With
    Ron Hainsey49.7
    Jake Muzzin59.3
    Jake Gardiner56.4

    WithGF% With
    Ron Hainsey58.8
    Jake Muzzin64.7
    Jake Gardiner79.0

    That’s a guy who was carried by Rielly in a big way.

    Still did ok with Dermott, about the same as Dermott did without him.

    Dermott was about the same with Ozhiganov although I bet that’s 3rd pair.

    Dermott was much better with Gardiner (natch).

    I like Hainsey and he was a killer with PIT late in his career but the best I can say about his year with TOR this year was that he was better than Zaitsev.

    He’s 38.

    He’s lasted long than most, but expecting a 1st pair defender or even an everyday top 4 guy isn’t a good idea anymore.

    Oh cmon
    He didn’t even play 100 min with Gardiner or Dermott 5v5
    And only played 130 with Muzzin
    You know better than to make conclusions out of those small sizes
    He spent 1000 min with Reilly and not enough information to make any conclusion with the other two

    He is obviously getting old and should be given less and easier minutes.
    But 5v5 Reilly spent more than 70% of his time with him so there’s no adequate sample size to compare

  139. godot10 says:

    ArmchairGM: The metrics I cited show he did fine at 1st pairing. He was better at 1st pairing than Russell was at 2nd pair.

    This was true two years ago also when I hoped the Oilers would sign him as cover for Sekera’s injury, even if it meant not re-signing Russell.

  140. godot10 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    ArmchairGM,

    Rielly’s 3 most common partners via various metrics:

    WithCF% With
    Ron Hainsey49.6
    Jake Muzzin57.4
    Jake Gardiner58.3

    WithHDCF% With
    Ron Hainsey49.7
    Jake Muzzin59.3
    Jake Gardiner56.4

    WithGF% With
    Ron Hainsey58.8
    Jake Muzzin64.7
    Jake Gardiner79.0

    That’s a guy who was carried by Rielly in a big way.

    Still did ok with Dermott, about the same as Dermott did without him.

    Dermott was about the same with Ozhiganov although I bet that’s 3rd pair.

    Dermott was much better with Gardiner (natch).

    I like Hainsey and he was a killer with PIT late in his career but the best I can say about his year with TOR this year was that he was better than Zaitsev.

    He’s 38.

    He’s lasted long than most, but expecting a 1st pair defender or even an everyday top 4 guy isn’t a good idea anymore.

    I want someone calm and steady to play with Nurse on the 2ND pair. A stop gap to Bouchard for a year.

    Stralman might want too many years and too much money and be closer to done.

  141. Reja says:

    I would fire Esa Lindell into the sun all you have to do is touch him and he flops like a fish anyhow way to go Patty big game winning goal.

  142. Gerta Rauss says:

    Patrick Maroon with the game winner late

  143. who says:

    Everybody is speculating on trading Russell or Sekera, or both. That would definitely be the safe play and would free up some cap space to sign a winger, or two. But we would be, at best, giving these guys away. We may even have to retain salary, or add a sweetener, to move these guys.
    What if the new GM aims a little higher? We’ve already heard that Edmonton turned down Ehlers and Appleton for Klefbom. What if Winnipeg offered Ehlers and Nisku/ Vesalinen? Which team says yes?

  144. Glovjuice says:

    who:
    Everybody is speculating on trading Russell or Sekera, or both. That would definitely be the safe play and would free up some cap space to sign a winger, or two. But we would be, at best, giving these guys away. We may even have to retain salary, or add a sweetener, to move these guys.
    What if the new GM aims a little higher? We’ve already heard that Edmonton turned down Ehlers and Appleton for Klefbom. What if Winnipeg offered Ehlers and Nisku/ Vesalinen? Which team says yes?

    Both

  145. RonnieB says:

    who: ? We’ve already heard that Edmonton turned down Ehlers and Appleton for Klefbom

    I hadn’t heard that. When did it happen ? How reliable is the source ?

  146. Indy says:

    Kraz:
    I still can’t believe it took Nicholson 3 months to come up with a final list of Mark Hunter, McCrimmon, Ken Holland and Sean Burke. What a complete waste of time this whole process was.

    Burgers, man I even sweat and get red faced watching his pressers, guy seems constantly scared or pooping his undies…

  147. Glovjuice says:

    Indy: Burgers, man I even sweat and get red faced watching his pressers, guy seems constantly scared or pooping his undies…

    This is the funniest and possibly the best post ever on this blog. He is an incompetent fool (what in the absolute fuck was that dressing down of a fourth line player for all to see). And, he is leading the Oilers search for GM and coach. Fucked, totally fucked. Soilers will Soil.

  148. G Money says:

    godot10,

    The WoodWOWY database is implemented, but because of the sheer size of the data involved, the interface building process will be WOWY, then on the fly shift / shift start data, then WoodWOWY.

  149. Maoriduvpoojt says:

    godot10: I want someone calm and steady to play with Nurse on the 2ND pair. A stop gap to Bouchard for a year.

    Stralman might want too many years and too much money and be closer to done.

    Trouba for Nurse. Yes/No?

  150. v4ance says:

    Maoriduvpoojt: Trouba for Nurse.Yes/No?

    No

    The only reason Trouba is available is Winnipeg knows that he wants to sign with an American team; most likely Detroit to be closer to home. A trade for Trouba has very little likelihood of Edmonton retaining him past the end of his current contract.

    My bet is Trouba signs a 1 year deal to take him to UFA status and “picks” the Red Wings.

    The other option is Winnipeg negotiates a “sign and trade” deal with Trouba, giving him a max 8 year deal at a good cap hit and trading him directly to Detroit for a substantial package. Trouba would slide in beside DeKeyser to form a solid #1 pairing.

  151. Jaxon says:

    Interesting update on K’Andre Miller, a NYR draft pick from last year that I was super high on. He had a great Draft+1 year. This is how it lines up to NCAA draft+1 seasons since 2005:
    SEASON – PLAYER – NHLe (Using 0.41 factor for NCAA)
    2016-2017 – Adam Fox (D) – 38.42
    2018-2019 – Quinn Hughes (D) – 35.79
    2015-2016 – Zach Werenski (D) – 33.62
    2008-2009 – Patrick Wiercioch (D) – 32.69
    2018-2019 – K’Andre Miller (D) – 28.45
    2010-2011 – Justin Faulk (D) – 28.45
    2005-2006 – Jack Johnson (D) – 28.31
    2012-2013 – Jacob Trouba (D) – 26.35
    2017-2018 – Ian Mitchell (D) – 24.60
    He’s fast, he’s tough, he’s 6’4″, 207lbs. He should have been a top 10 pick. Jeff Gorton made a great move by trading #26 & #48 to move up and pick him at #22 after drafting Kravtsov at #9.

  152. Jaxon says:

    Wilde:
    One more thing on Turcotte, guys-

    Checking out what’s publicly available from Mitch Brown’s Tracking Project, we see that the player slants heavily to playmaking, with crazy clean entry rates too.

    https://public.tableau.com/profile/mitchell.brown1648#!/vizhome/CHLComparison/Dashboard3

    (You can also see how Hughes is absolutely dominant in every facet)

    Thanks for this link. Cozens looks great across the board. Zegras looks terrible. Boldy looks decent. Hughes is great. Turcotte… overall pretty good, but not Cozens area overall. Lavoie compares well with Caufield.
    Cozens is all alone in 2nd by these metrics.
    I wish he had Kaliyev, Dach, Krebs, Tomasino, and Brink.

    It’s interesting to compare Svechnikov to Hughes. They are pretty even across the board. Plus, Svechnikov’s 5v5 primary pts production last season was near historic, behind only Crosby and McDavid.

    Just to emphasize… Zegras looks terrible in these metrics and others. Please don’t draft him Edmonton.

  153. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jaxon:
    Interesting update on K’Andre Miller, a NYR draft pick from last year that I was super high on. He had a great Draft+1 year. This is how it lines up to NCAA draft+1 seasons since 2005:
    SEASON–PLAYER–NHLe (Using 0.41 factor for NCAA)
    2016-2017–Adam Fox (D)–38.42
    2018-2019–Quinn Hughes (D)–35.79
    2015-2016–Zach Werenski (D)–33.62
    2008-2009–Patrick Wiercioch (D)–32.69
    2018-2019–K’Andre Miller (D)–28.45
    2010-2011–Justin Faulk (D)–28.45
    2005-2006–Jack Johnson (D)–28.31
    2012-2013–Jacob Trouba (D)–26.35
    2017-2018–Ian Mitchell (D)–24.60
    He’s fast, he’s tough, he’s 6’4″, 207lbs. He should have been a top 10 pick. Jeff Gorton made a great move by trading #26 & #48 to move up and pick him at #22 after drafting Kravtsov at #9.

    Would you have been in favor of taking him over Bouchard (and Dobson) at the time? What about if the draft was now?

  154. ArmchairGM says:

    Jaxon: Thanks for this link. Cozens looks great across the board. Zegras looks terrible. Boldy looks decent. Hughes is great. Turcotte… overall pretty good, but not Cozens area overall. Lavoie compares well with Caufield.
    Cozens is all alone in 2nd by these metrics.
    I wish he had Kaliyev, Dach, Krebs, Tomasino, and Brink.

    It’s interesting to compare Svechnikov to Hughes. They are pretty even across the board. Plus, Svechnikov’s 5v5 primary pts production last season was near historic, behind only Crosby and McDavid.

    Just to emphasize… Zegras looks terrible in these metrics and others. Please don’t draft him Edmonton.

    The difficulty I have with this data is the small sample size. Some of these players were tracked fewer than 10 games.

  155. Jaxon says:

    ArmchairGM: The difficulty I have with this data is the small sample size. Some of these players were tracked fewer than 10 games.

    For sure, but it does lineup fairly well with the players I’m high on based on their Projected League and Age Adjusted 5v5 Primary Points vs TOI concerns, which was based on the entire season. When the small sample supports the information I have over a large sample, I’m inclined to listen to it.

  156. Jaxon says:

    OriginalPouzar: Would you have been in favor of taking him over Bouchard (and Dobson) at the time?What about if the draft was now?

    If he was right hand, I would seriously have considered it. There were no concerns about Miller’s skating last year. And every metric and every scoring report I saw showed Miller as being amazing. I still don’t understand why he wasn’t considered way higher.

  157. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    godot10: Does PuckIQ have WOWY vs Elites?I expect Reilly isn’t playing the elites as much when he isn’t wit Hainsey.

    Not yet, its coming.

  158. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    godot10: I want someone calm and steady to play with Nurse on the 2ND pair. A stop gap to Bouchard for a year.

    Stralman might want too many years and too much money and be closer to done.

    I think a better partner for Nurse is someone who can pass as that’s not his strong suit and you’ll get more zone exits with possession as a pair. That’s not Russell or Hainsey.

  159. Wilde says:

    s e v e r s o n

  160. Maoriduvpoojt says:

    Wilde,

    He was the RHD target I identified (obsessed with TBH) before the Hall trade as a “get him before he gets good” and as a relatively easier piece to acquire.

    The price would be too dear today, or what would you propose?

  161. ArmchairGM says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I think a better partner for Nurse is someone who can pass as that’s not his strong suit and you’ll get more zone exits with possession as a pair.That’s not Russell or Hainsey.

    So we’re back to Stralman then.

  162. Wilde says:

    Maoriduvpoojt:
    The price would be too dear today, or what would you propose?

    Trying to get them to pay plus for Nurse would be interesting.

    My proposal would be to chill on the D corps, and instead try to set the table for a #8-for-forward deal, by buying out Lucic, sending down Brodziak and Manning, and trading Russell.

  163. Wilde says:

    Although I’m also really interested in Fenton’s thoughts on Spurgeon, and Hynes’s on Vatanen. There’s some disconnects out there.

  164. GMB3 says:

    Glovjuice: Agreed, Hughes at the WJC was so far even from Eichel to my eye that I am actually worried about him even being in the top 8 of this draft 5 years from now.

    Lol!

    Aren’t you the “skating is everything” girl. You’ve watched so many ntpd games you can honestly say you’ve seen enough to have developed an accurate opinion on the top 8?

    He had one less point than Eichel in the world juniors and legitimately skated circles around the opposition. Scored more than Eichel at the u-18 level.

    And phrasing it as “so far even from Eichel”? What does that even mean. Since 2009 there’s been maybe 3 players drafted that are better than him? 🤨

  165. OriginalPouzar says:

    Buying out Lucic – yuck – that must be a non-option

  166. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Buying out Lucic – yuck – that must be a non-option

    – I doubt there is an actual solution available that is anywhere close to below, if management looks at the cost/benefit over the length of his contract:

    1) Play Lucic next year (he’s one of the few positive possession players on team)
    2) Pay his bonus next off-season
    3) Move a player who has a salary of $1MM, $2.5MM and $1MM in his last 3 years

    – Pretty certain that’s what they do anyways. No other solution seems palpable, and aren’t considering the drastic change in Lucic’s “value” in 12 months.

    – Besides the fact that Lucic’s wheels fell off harder than anyone could have imagined, this was the design of the contract structure: pay for his best years, and make it easy to trade when he’s 32+.

    – That’s still the case (except for the part of delivering for the last season and a half)

  167. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Wilde:
    s e v e r s o n

    You’re going to pay top value for him and he’s a shitty defender. Pretty good with the puck though.

  168. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    ArmchairGM: So we’re back to Stralman then.

    A small trade for someone like Pysyk to help for a year might do it as well.

    FLA and EDM might be trade partners with EDM taking Reimer off their hands and that has value to FLA.

  169. Lowetide says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – I doubt there is an actual solution available that is anywhere close to below, if management looks at the cost/benefit over the length of his contract:

    1) Play Lucic next year (he’s one of the few positive possession players on team)
    2) Pay his bonus next off-season
    3) Move a player who has a salary of $1MM, $2.5MM and $1MM in his last 3 years

    – Pretty certain that’s what they do anyways.No other solution seems palpable, and aren’t considering the drastic change in Lucic’s “value” in 12 months.

    – Besides the fact that Lucic’s wheels fell off harder than anyone could have imagined,this was the design of the contract structure: pay for his best years, and make it easy to trade when he’s 32+.

    – That’s still the case (except for the part of delivering for the last season and a half)

    Agreed. We’ve all stared at this from every angle, and it’s a sunk cost. The next step is parking him in the pressbox for games at a time but you hope he can hold down a regular job and maybe recover a little.

  170. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Buying out Lucic – yuck – that must be a non-option

    These are the top 7 names on CapFriendly’s Buyout Calculator today. They change daily, of course.

    This is not to defend the Lucic signing in any way, shape, or form. It is simply to show that other teams also find themselves with contracts that are considered ‘less than optimal’ 😉 while still managing to play competitive hockey.

    I included the +/- not because it is definitive but to allow it to be compared to the team’s goal differential which does shed some light on how a player is contributing to overall team success.

    I know the ‘Holy Grail’ of this summer’s moves is to get the Lucic contract off the books but I think this demonstrates that the Oiler’s problems are deeper than one very bad contract because other teams also have very bad contracts and still manage to compete effectively.

    Player Cap Points 18-19 +/- Team Differential
    Patrick Marleau 6.25 37 -6 +46
    Milan Lucic 6 20 -9 -42
    Karl Alzner 4.625 1 1 +13
    Nikita Zaitsev 4.5 14 +2 +46
    Ryan Callahan 5.8 17 +7 +103
    David Backes 6 20 0 +44
    James Neal 5.75 19 -5 +62

  171. jp says:

    Jaxon:
    Turcotte outscored Hughes and everyone else in the USTNDP at 5-on-5 Primary Points/60 this season (5.25 to 3.17) by a large margin and in 5-on-5 Pts/60 (7.01 to 4.47). That is significant. Also, when speaking of Hughes historic NDP run, Matthews played in the NLA in his draft season and Eichel played in the NCAA. Had they played another year with the USTNDP team instead of moving on to more difficult leagues, their numbers would most likely have been higher. Farabee (4.24), Whalstrom (3.70), and Gruden (3.56) outpaced his 5-on-5 Primary Points / 60 last season as well. Hughes was 6th on his own team this year in 5-on-5 Primary Points /60 behind Trucotte (5.25), Gildon (3.81), Caufield (3.44), Boldy (3.37), and Zegras (3.35). Adjusting for age and league, Turcotte’s rate puts him just behind Crosby and McDavid for the best rate since 2005, just ahead of Svechnikov and Marner by the same metric. I find it astonishing that Turcotte, who has decent size and great speed and a complete game defensively and is seen as a coachable, responsible, character guy with good hockey genes isn’t in the running for 1st overall let alone possibly not even in the top 6 or 7 on some lists. I know watching Hughes is electrifying and recency bias at the U18s has everyone excited, but I think groupthink has a hold of many scouts and writers. I’m less sold on Hughes as generational. Franchise? Likely, but I’m not even certain about that when looking at his stats. And, although the league is less size dependent, it is still a big league and that can hamper development and ceilings for smaller players, so I’d be wary of drafting 166lbs Hughes 1st overall, especially with two to four very complete, big, fast, high scoring players in Kakko, Podkolzin, Cozens, and Turcotte in the draft. Turcotte outscores him, Cozens is within range of his production. Kakko and Podkolzin are scouted as very explosive, creative players. Kakko has outperformed Barkov, Laine and Rantanen at that age. And he’s responsible, big, fast with a high hockey IQ. I’d pick him long before I picked Hughes.

    I think that 18-19 USHL sample is about the worst reflection on Hughes and the best on Turcotte available. Turcotte looks all world, but it’s a pretty small sample size that isn’t really backed up by anything else. Looks at the rest of their numbers on the same teams over the past 2 years (maybe you already have):

    Hughes
    18-19 USHL 2.00 PPG
    18-19 USDP 2.24 PPG
    2018 U20 1.00 PPG
    2019 U18 2.86 PPG

    17-18 USHL 2.00 PPG
    17-18 USDPU17 2.00 PPG
    17-18 USDPU18 1.89 PPG
    2017 U17 2.50 PPG
    2018 U18 1.71 PPG

    Turcotte
    18-19 USHL 2.13 PPG
    18-19 USDP 1.68 PPG
    2018 U20 did not play
    2018 U18 1.29 PPG

    17-18 USHL 1.03 PPG
    17-18 USDPU17 1.21 PPG
    17-18 USDPU18 0.84 PPG
    2017 U17 1.00 PPG
    2018 U18 0.71 PPG

    Obviously this is total points rather than 5 on 5 primary, but there’s not even one other sample where they’re remotely close to comparable.

    So yes, to say 18-19 Hughes is surprising/disappointing in your adjusted primary points metric is absolutely true. But I to suggest Turcotte is near his equal based on his own 16 game USHL sample this season doesn’t look reasonable to me.

    Whether Kakko should be ranked nearer/with Hughes I have no idea. And Turcotte is clearly an exceptional prospect. But IMO Hughes shouldn’t be dinged too much for his USHL number this year, just like Turcotte shouldn’t be jetted up the rankings based on his. Both USHL numbers from this season seem to be outliers based on each players other performances.

  172. Lowetide says:

    For The Athletic: Jesse Puljujarvi faces an uncertain future with the Oilers. The new GM and coach can review the numbers and will find one spot in the batting order where he had success. Why won’t the Oilers play him there? Or is the die cast?

    https://theathletic.com/953347/2019/04/30/lowetide-jesse-puljujarvi-and-his-uncertain-future-with-the-oilers/

  173. Pescador says:

    Jaxon:
    Interesting update on K’Andre Miller, a NYR draft pick from last year that I was super high on. He had a great Draft+1 year. This is how it lines up to NCAA draft+1 seasons since 2005:
    SEASON–PLAYER–NHLe (Using 0.41 factor for NCAA)
    2016-2017–Adam Fox (D)–38.42
    2018-2019–Quinn Hughes (D)–35.79
    2015-2016–Zach Werenski (D)–33.62
    2008-2009–Patrick Wiercioch (D)–32.69
    2018-2019–K’Andre Miller (D)–28.45
    2010-2011–Justin Faulk (D)–28.45
    2005-2006–Jack Johnson (D)–28.31
    2012-2013–Jacob Trouba (D)–26.35
    2017-2018–Ian Mitchell (D)–24.60
    He’s fast, he’s tough, he’s 6’4″, 207lbs. He should have been a top 10 pick. Jeff Gorton made a great move by trading #26 & #48 to move up and pick him at #22 after drafting Kravtsov at #9.

    I remember you waxing poetic about K-Andre Miller last year before the draft.
    NYR did well to select him that late in the 1st round.
    I thought that it was a good trade for both, as trading down 4 places landed OTT an additional 2nd rounder.
    Good value,
    Rangers likely got the best player & won the trade

  174. Wilde says:

    Burke and Hunter are both extremely scary and they’re 2 of the 3 known finalists.

  175. Jaxon says:

    Jaxon: OriginalPouzar: Would you have been in favor of taking him over Bouchard (and Dobson) at the time?What about if the draft was now?

    If he was right hand, I would seriously have considered it. There were no concerns about Miller’s skating last year. And every metric and every scoring report I saw showed Miller as being amazing. I still don’t understand why he wasn’t considered way higher.

    Also if you look at
    https://public.tableau.com/profile/mitchell.brown1648#!/vizhome/CombinedCHL5v5Data/ScoringChanceContributionsScatter
    You’ll see that he stands nearly alone in the good quadrant on almost every measure (tabs at top).
    And in a fast, big package who scored at a very high rate. His projected 5v5 P1 was 31.56!!!!, while Bouchard’s was 20.43, and Merkley’s was 22.88. That’s higher than almost any forward I’ve tracked since 2005, and way higher than any D.
    McCagg’s Draft Guide had him as the 4th Best Defensive D after Dahlin, Dobson and Ginning. A western conference scout told McCagg that “He’s almost impossible to beat one-on-one.”
    Pronman ranked him as the 9th best Physical game in his ‘ranking by tools’ article and said he was among the best skating D in the draft.
    I really don’t understand why he wasn’t considered higher than 15 or 10th for that matter. I’d definitely be watching a lot of video and asking my scouts to look at him again. Would I draft him higher than Bouchard? If I didn’t really need a right-hand D, for sure and maybe even if I did.

  176. Jaxon says:

    jp: I think that 18-19 USHL sample is about the worst reflection on Hughes and the best on Turcotte available. Turcotte looks all world, but it’s a pretty small sample size that isn’t really backed up by anything else. Looks at the rest of their numbers on the same teams over the past 2 years (maybe you already have):

    Hughes
    18-19 USHL 2.00 PPG
    18-19 USDP 2.24 PPG
    2018 U20 1.00 PPG
    2019 U18 2.86 PPG

    17-18 USHL 2.00 PPG
    17-18 USDPU17 2.00 PPG
    17-18 USDPU18 1.89 PPG
    2017 U17 2.50 PPG
    2018 U18 1.71 PPG

    Turcotte
    18-19 USHL 2.13 PPG
    18-19 USDP 1.68 PPG
    2018 U20 did not play
    2018 U18 1.29 PPG

    17-18 USHL 1.03 PPG
    17-18 USDPU17 1.21 PPG
    17-18 USDPU18 0.84 PPG
    2017 U17 1.00 PPG
    2018 U18 0.71 PPG

    Obviously this is total points rather than 5 on 5 primary, but there’s not even one other sample where they’re remotely close to comparable.

    So yes, to say 18-19 Hughes is surprising/disappointing in your adjusted primary points metric is absolutely true. But I to suggest Turcotte is near his equal based on his own 16 game USHL sample this season doesn’t look reasonable to me.

    Whether Kakko should be ranked nearer/with Hughes I have no idea. And Turcotte is clearly an exceptional prospect. But IMO Hughes shouldn’t be dinged too much for his USHL number this year, just like Turcotte shouldn’t be jetted up the rankings based on his. Both USHL numbers from this season seem to be outliers based on each players other performances.

    That… is a very reasonable and soundly argued response.

  177. Andy Dufresne says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    1 Peyton Krebs
    2 MacCrimmon
    3 Dave Hakstol
    4 3
    5 Oilers
    6 Oilers
    7 Larsson
    8 Larsson for Rasmus Ristolainen
    9 Brett Connolly ( Alex Chaisson signs for less than Connolly)
    10 Curtis McElhinney
    11 None

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