The Oilers and the WHL

by Lowetide

The WHL is something close to home base for the Edmonton Oilers, the team’s devotion to its backyard league is detailed here. The organization skipped ‘the dub’ last season, spending precious resources instead in the OHL, QMJHL, Finnish Jr and schools in the New Hampshire townships. The way this year’s draft is setting up, it’s a good bet we’ll see at least one pick from the WHL in 2019. Photo by Rob Ferguson.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group.INSANE NEW OFFER IS HERE!

  • New Jonathan Willis: Is Ken Holland yesterday’s man or the ideal GM candidate for the Oilers?
  • New Lowetide: Jesse Puljujarvi and his uncertain future with the Oilers
  • New Lowetide: ‘I see something special’: Are Oilers prepared to make Caleb Jones a fixture on the roster next season?
  • New Jonathan Willis: Gritty comeback performance sends Edmonton’s farm team to the second round of the AHL playoffs.
  • New Lowetide: Dylan Cozens might be ideal fit for Oilers at No. 8 overall in the 2019 draft
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Hard to please, but easy to work for’: How Sean Burke’s philosophy as a GM would benefit the Oilers.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: A dogged realist, Kelly McCrimmon’s resume makes him an attractive candidate for the Oilers GM job
  • New Lowetide: Is this the season the Oilers take the plunge and draft a USHL player in the first round?
  • Jonathan Willis: Top Oilers prospect Evan Bouchard stars in his first AHL game as Condors dominate.
  • Lowetide: Adam Larsson’s importance to the Oilers and why trading him is a bad idea.
  • Lowetide: Tyler Benson’s comparables offer Oilers fans plenty of hope for the future.
  • Lowetide: Making the call on the Oilers’ RFAs with a new general manager on the way.
  • Lowetide: Red Wings front office shuffle could impact Oilers’ future.
  • Jonathan Willis: Potential coaching candidates and why the Oilers don’t need to rush the GM search to get one
  • Lowetide: What would Glen Sather do with these Oilers?
  • Jonathan Willis: Some creative solutions to address the Oilers’ goalie problem
  • Lowetide: The Milan Lucic saga rolls into Year 4 for Oilers with no easy answers
  • Jonathan Willis: Who stays and who goes? An early projection of which players will remain on the Oilers’ roster in 2019-20
  • LowetideHow high can these Condors fly?
  • Lowetide: The Oilers possible summer trade pieces, and which longtime players might be saying goodbye.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ten prospects likely to be available when the Oilers make their first-round pick

WHL’S BEST, 2019

  1. Bowen Byram, LHD, Vancouver Giants. 67, 26-45-71 (1.06)
  2. Kirby Dach, RHC, Saskatoon Blades. 62, 25-48-73 (1.18)
  3. Dylan Cozens, RHC, Lethbridge Hurricanes. 68, 34-50-84 (1.24)
  4. Peyton Krebs, LW, Kootenay Ice. 64, 19-49-68 (1.06)
  5. Matthew Robertson, LHD, Edmonton Oil Kings. 52, 7-26-33 (0.63)
  6. Brett Leason, RW, Prince Albert Raiders. 55, 36-53-89 (1.62) (OA)
  7. Brayden Tracey, LW, Moose Jaw Warriors. 66, 36-45-81 (1.23)
  8. Lassi Thomson, RHD, Kelowna Rockets. 63, 17-24-41 (0.65)
  9. Mads Sogaard, G Medicine Hat Tigers. 37, 2.64 .921
  10. Nolan Foote, LW, Kelowna Rockets. 66, 36-27-63 (0.95)
  11. Luka Burzan LHC, Brandon Wheat Kings. 68, 40-38-78 (1.15) (OA)
  12. Adam Beckman, LW, Spokane Chiefs. 68, 32-30-62 (0.91)
  13. Kaedan Korczak, RD, Kelowna Rockets. 68, 4-29-33 (0.49)
  14. Dillon Hamaliuk, LW, Seattle Thunderbirds. 31, 11-15-26 (.84)
  15. Oleg Zaitsev, LHC, Red Deer Rebels. 66, 13-30-54 (0.65)
  16. Trent Miner, G, Vancouver Giants. 32, 1.98 .924.
  17. Alexei Protas, LC, Prince Albert Raiders. 61, 11-29-40 (0.66)
  18. Gianni Fairbrother, LHD, Everett Silvertips. 64, 10-26-36 (0.56)
  19. Sasha Mutala, RW, Tri-City Americans. 65, 20-21-41 (0.63)
  20. Reece Newkirk, LHC, Portland Winterhawks. 68, 23-36-59 (0.87)
  21. Josh Williams, RW, Edmonton Oil Kings. 66, 14-19-33 (0.50)
  22. Quinn Schmiemann, LHD, Kamloops Blazers. 58, 5-23-28 (0.48)
  23. Dustin Wolf, Everett Silvertips. 61, 1.69 .936
  24. Martin Lang, RW, Kamloops Blazers. 65, 11-22-33 (0.51)
  25. Luke Toporowski, LHC, Spokane Chiefs. 67, 21-28-49 (0.73)
  26. Ben McCartney, LW, Brandon Wheat Kings. 67, 21-20-41 (0.61)
  27. Vladimir Alistrov, LW, Edmonton Oil Kings. 62, 12-26-38 (0.61)
  28. Henry Rybinski, RW, Seattle Thunderbirds. 33, 7-28-35 (1.06)
  29. Mark Kastelic, RHC, Calgary Hitmen. 66, 47-30-77 (1.17) (OA)
  30. Cole Moberg, RHD, Prince George Cougars. 61, 13-27-40 (0.66) (OA)
  31. Jackson van de Leest, LHD, Calgary Hitmen. 67, 1-20-21 (0.31)
  32. Krystof Hrabik, LHC, Tri-City Americans. 63, 21-30-51 (0.81) (OA)
  33. Jake Lee, LHD, Seattle Thunderbirds. 67, 3-21-24 (0.36)

This is my WHL list. I have two players that still have me wondering. Brett Leason is an overager, not sure if my ranking is too high. He’s a famous older prospect, and that helps him no doubt. That said, he’s also talented. The other player is Brayden Tracey, who played on a line that zoomed him. I haven’t decided on those two men yet, the rest are fairly set.

ELLIOTTE FRIEDMAN

Yesterday, people were still wondering what Rod Pedersen was talking about, but now Holland is part of a trio at the top along with Mark Hunter and Kelly McCrimmon. The wording around McCrimmon’s availability is vague, so his inclusion might be overstating. Please click on Mr. Friedman’s link here.

Gathering up all of the wayward bits and pieces I have heard and read, I think we have one of those elementary school math questions that is really two questions in one (a train leaves Edmonton averaging x miles an hour..).

It sounds like the job belongs to Ken Holland if he wants it. I imagine the Oilers would make efforts to retain Keith Gretzky and have him working alongside the same way as Holland did with Jim Devellano in the 1990’s. Holland trumps all. Jon’s article from yesterday (link above) is an excellent assessment of Holland.

Next up is Kelly McCrimmon, who apparently isn’t free to take the job. The wording by Mr. Friedman has the look of parsing, so one imagines the two sides are a little way down the road, perhaps to the point where Vegas may have to elevate McCrimmon to keep him. As in the case of Holland, Edmonton doesn’t control the story.

As for autonomy, it’s easily promised but the Oilers themselves may not have a firm grasp on the request. The organization is so set in its ways McCrimmon may be talking about a world the Oilers don’t understand. Edmonton is still in the days of receiving your phone messages by picking up a bunch of pink message slips after a two-hour lunch. It’s 1975. Analytics is available to them, but they need someone who can explain it, and more importantly, someone they respect enough to listen and learn from, applying it in real time.

Mark Hunter appears to be the first man on the list who is available and has both met the standards and wants the opportunity. I read somewhere Nicholson wanted to wrap this up in the next week to 10 days, that benefits Hunter more than anyone. Sean Burke may also be idling in the driveway.

THE 2014 DRAFT

Around these parts, once the draft slot was known, the mantra was “stay idle for Draisaitl” and Craig MacTavish delivered. That accomplishment sometimes gets obscured by other events but Edmonton won a major victory over the other lottery teams that day.

MacT mentioned analytics on draft weekend, specifically the idea of dealing down for basically equal talent. Although I have written thousands of words about Anton Slepyshev, William Carrier and Valentin Zykov, I don’t think it hurt the Oilers to make those trades. Sometimes good risks have less than ideal outcomes, doesn’t mean they were bad risks after the fact.

2014 NHLE’s

  1. Sam Bennett (OHL) 16-23-39
  2. Robby Fabri (OHL) 19-18-37
  3. Sam Reinhart (WHL) 13-24-37
  4. Nikolaj Ehlers (QMJHL) 17-18-35
  5. Michael Dal Colle (OHL) 14-21-35
  6. Leon Draisaitl (WHL) 13-22-35
  7. Nick Ritchie (OHL) 16-14-30
  8. Ivan Barbashev (QMJHL) 11-19-30
  9. Brendan Perlini (OHL) 14-16-30
  10. Jake Virtanen (WHL) 14-7-21

2014 Bruce McCurdy on Leon Draisaitl: The big centre (listed as 6’1, 209) was neither overly physically aggressive nor a speedster, but largely impressed this observer with his overall command of the game. The play went through his stick constantly, and for the most part, good or at least promising things developed thereafter. He showed a couple of bursts of what I would term “situational speed” but his A game is clearly one of controlling the play rather than pushing it. As I said to my voice recorder at one point, “When the puck is on Draisaitl’s stick, he owns it. Even if there’s a guy in his kitchen he’s in full control.” And later, “Very calm with the puck on his stick, not quite nonchalant but knows how much time he’s got, which in this league is a lot. Big and strong and can dangle the puck out of reach of the man who’s on him, pick his spot and distribute… A lot of subtle stuff, some little mistakes at the end of shifts, but with the puck on his stick he makes a lot of good decisions.”

I have been hard on the rest of the 2014 draft (beyond Leon), but William Lagesson might just save the entire endeavor. Edmonton can’t bitch no matter, Draisaitl alone is plenty for one draft. Lagesson has the look of a player who will spend some time in the NHL. Will it be 100 games? 250? 500?

Edmonton also received a trade tree by dealing Liam Coughlin to Chicago for the rights to Anders Nilsson. Graham McPhee is the current asset on the tree. Perhaps they’ll trade him to Vegas for McCrimmon. Tyler Vesel also remains in the system from the 2014 draft.

ERIC RODGERS GOALIE STATS

Image

Eric passed along a fascinating view of AHL goalies, Starrett clearly the best option and the two freshman have miles to go. There is separation between Wells and Skinner for sure. If Starrett gets some NHL games next season, could he be consistently good?

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy morning with three fun guests. It all gets started at 10, with our friend Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal dropping in around 10:20. We’ll chat about the GM possibilities and about Leon in his draft year. Gabe Lacques from USA Today will chat about the Jays and the rotation, plus the BoSox and their challenging start. Jon Campbell from OddsShark will chime in on the Kentucky Derby, NBA and NHL playoffs. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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jp

Jaxon: Going back to 97-98 season up to last year (21 years) these are the OHL turned NHL players (I think they all played over 200 NHL games) who scored lower or near .67 in their draft +2 (19 year old) season.

Bryan Allen .67
Matt Carkner .30
Kurtis Foster .41
Mark Giordano .71
Shane O’Brien .68
Kyle Wellwood .06
Dan Girardi .69
Paul Ranger .69
Brian Lee .59
Paul Bissonnette .32
Marc Methot .24
Marc Staal .64
Matt Pelech .60
Adam McQuaid .48
Robert Bortuzzo .74
Jake Muzzin .47
Ben Chiarot .58
Connor Murphy .55
Erik Cermak .42

About 1 per year from the OHL. So, it’s possible but still rare and some very good players are on the this list along with some fringe 6-7D. I’d consider 4 of these guys to pair (Giordano, Methot, Muzzin, and Girardi) at one point in their career and maybe not all of them in the new faster, more skilled NHL. Giordano’s on there so, who knows, maybe Samurokov will be a Norris candidate in 16 years for the 2034-2035 season.

Thanks for that. I was browsing players (much less efficiently than you) after posting and noticed Giordano had similar numbers. I certainly wasn’t intending to suggest Samorukov can’t make it from where he is now, just that the odds are long that he’ll be an impact player. I think your list backs that up, and actually suggests that Samorukov making the NHL in any capacity would be a win despite the recent good arrows.

blainer

Kinger_Oil.redux:
– I’ll keep posting this untill they announce a new GM (I say they have untill early June, which still gives a month before draft),

– Pretty good take-up so far: this off-season seems “easier” ?

– So armchair GM bragging rights for next season, winner gets a LT PayPal donation

– What will the Oilers do this off-season:

Pleaserespond
1
2
3

1) Who is the Oiler’s first pick?
2) Who is the Oilers GM?
3) Who is the Oilers Coach?
4) How many draft and develop players make the roster opening night from existing AHL playoff roster/Europe/College/Draft pick, etc
5) What team is Lucic on next year?
6) What team is Pool on next year?
7) Which of Sek, Larsson, Benning, Nurse, Klef, Russell aren’t on open game line-up?
8) Number of roster player for roster player(s) trades? Bonus for calling it
9) Biggest off-season free-agent signing (by salary)
10) Who is Koski’s back-up game 1?
11) Which members of “OBC” sail on ?

1. Turcotte
2. Hunter
3. Hunter
4. Bouchard Benson Jones
5. Oilers
6. Toronto
7. Russell
8. JP and Nurse to Toronto for Nylander and a 3rd
9. Varlamov
10. Koskinen is the backup and Varlamov is the starter or 1a or 1b
11. No one sails on.. it’s not katz’s way of doing things..

Jaxon

jp: I don’t mean to be negative, and I know Samorukov had a great run in the 2nd half. But are there any examples of guys who topped out at 0.76 PPG in the CHL in draft +2 that went on to be 1/2D in the NHL? There must be a couple, but I can’t imagine there’s more than a handful.

Going back to 97-98 season up to last year (21 years) these are the OHL turned NHL players (I think they all played over 200 NHL games) who scored lower or near .67 in their draft +2 (19 year old) season.

Bryan Allen .67
Matt Carkner .30
Kurtis Foster .41
Mark Giordano .71
Shane O’Brien .68
Kyle Wellwood .06
Dan Girardi .69
Paul Ranger .69
Brian Lee .59
Paul Bissonnette .32
Marc Methot .24
Marc Staal .64
Matt Pelech .60
Adam McQuaid .48
Robert Bortuzzo .74
Jake Muzzin .47
Ben Chiarot .58
Connor Murphy .55
Erik Cermak .42

About 1 per year from the OHL. So, it’s possible but still rare and some very good players are on the this list along with some fringe 6-7D. I’d consider 4 of these guys to pair (Giordano, Methot, Muzzin, and Girardi) at one point in their career and maybe not all of them in the new faster, more skilled NHL. Giordano’s on there so, who knows, maybe Samurokov will be a Norris candidate in 16 years for the 2034-2035 season.

OriginalPouzar

Unless Bouchard is able to earn not-sheltered minutes during the Condors’ playoff run and play a good stretch of games with such un-sheltered minutes and essentially blow the doors off the AHL then, yes, absolutely, Bouchard should start in the AHL next year.

There is nothing he can do during training camp and the exhibition season to show that he is NHL ready. We’ve seen examples year after year after year where great exhibition performances throughout the preseason by young high skilled prospects mean absolutely nothing as far as NHL readiness – Yamamoto, Puljujarvi, Bouchard, McLeod, etc.

A plus AHL performance will mean much more than anything Bouchard can do during training camp – I actually expect him to be close to a PPG during camp and look like one of the top 4 d-men – will not mean anything as far as NHL readiness.

Further, because we just won’t know if he is NHL ready (subject to information during the AHL playoff run), they must be risk-adverse with this prospect. There is zero risk in starting him in the AHL and there is risk of starting him in the NHL. Its not like the Oilers don’t have options for where Bouchard would play if he did make the team – the likes of Jones, Persson and Bear, all players that have at least two years of pro experience and are playing well in their pro leagues. Lagesson too if they would shift Sekera to 3RD is an option.

Be risk adverse – start him in the AHL, let him play real top 4 minutes for 40 games. If he’s blowing the doors off the AHL then he becomes and option.

Glovjuice

OriginalPouzar: Every time I post about this I preface it with a statement among the lines that he’s unlikely to actuallyreach is full potential and be 1D and also with the fact that Bouchard’s offensive ceiling is higher than Samorukov’s. A d-man doesn’t need to put up 60 plus points to be a true #1 in any event and I’m merely speaking about how Samorukov has a wider range of skills at this point than Bouchard – he’s an all-tools guy.He is a very good defensive first guy who is an aggressive defender and an excellent skater – this is to go along with his puck moving and offence. Samorukov isn’t an offense first guy but yet his offence is now starting to spike.

This player will become a top pairing D. I will guarantee it. Bold, I know, but have been on this train since I saw that one transition play fron D to offensive zone a while back.

jp

OriginalPouzar: Every time I post about this I preface it with a statement among the lines that he’s unlikely to actuallyreach is full potential and be 1D and also with the fact that Bouchard’s offensive ceiling is higher than Samorukov’s. A d-man doesn’t need to put up 60 plus points to be a true #1 in any event and I’m merely speaking about how Samorukov has a wider range of skills at this point than Bouchard – he’s an all-tools guy.He is a very good defensive first guy who is an aggressive defender and an excellent skater – this is to go along with his puck moving and offence. Samorukov isn’t an offense first guy but yet his offence is now starting to spike.

Yes, you’ve been very clear that it’s not your EXPECTATION that he actually becomes a 1D. I was just wondering just how rare it is for someone with Samorukov’s offence in junior to develop into a top pairing defensemen. I don’t have an answer to that yet (and not actually expecting you to provide one). Recent arrows on Samorukov are great, to be sure.

OriginalPouzar

Game 1 of the OHL Championship series starts tonight.

Guelph is up against the powerhouse team from Ottawa and they cannot afford to get down by multiple games like they did against London and Saginaw.

Samorukov’s defensive abilities will be a key to this series for Guelph.

OriginalPouzar

jp: I don’t mean to be negative, and I know Samorukov had a great run in the 2nd half. But are there any examples of guys who topped out at 0.76 PPG in the CHL in draft +2 that went on to be 1/2D in the NHL? There must be a couple, but I can’t imagine there’s more than a handful.

Every time I post about this I preface it with a statement among the lines that he’s unlikely to actually reach is full potential and be 1D and also with the fact that Bouchard’s offensive ceiling is higher than Samorukov’s. A d-man doesn’t need to put up 60 plus points to be a true #1 in any event and I’m merely speaking about how Samorukov has a wider range of skills at this point than Bouchard – he’s an all-tools guy. He is a very good defensive first guy who is an aggressive defender and an excellent skater – this is to go along with his puck moving and offence. Samorukov isn’t an offense first guy but yet his offence is now starting to spike.

Foege Foegele Torpe

jp: I don’t mean to be negative, and I know Samorukov had a great run in the 2nd half. But are there any examples of guys who topped out at 0.76 PPG in the CHL in draft +2 that went on to be 1/2D in the NHL? There must be a couple, but I can’t imagine there’s more than a handful.

I don’t think you’re being negative.
When you consider the sheer number of prospects that have been drafted, I would say only a handful have ever become top pairing D

pts2pndr

Pescador: Eyeball the length, cut it wrong
Throw the board into the maybe pile & grab a new one
Oilers drafting model

Perfect analogy.

jp

OriginalPouzar: Potentially the other way around even, given the true 1D skill-set that Samorukov has. I think he’s unlikely to top out over Bouchard but I do put his ultimate ceiling higher because of his range of skill.

I don’t mean to be negative, and I know Samorukov had a great run in the 2nd half. But are there any examples of guys who topped out at 0.76 PPG in the CHL in draft +2 that went on to be 1/2D in the NHL? There must be a couple, but I can’t imagine there’s more than a handful.

who

leadfarmer:
OriginalPouzar,

Well you shorten the pain by a year.Maybe you can then add something small to flip him for Darling and shave another year and have a guy easier to buyout
It’s not going to be easy or painless to get rid of Lucic
Hope he gets so sick of Edmonton that they mutually terminate his contract on July 1

How about Lucic, with 2 million retained, plus Jones for Sutter?

YKOil

Bruce McCurdy: I fail to see how one deadweight $6 million contract replacing another deadweigt $6 million contract moves the needle for cap relief.

One less year. Better boxcars (for what that is worth). Can send him to the minors and he has a 15 team NTC starting 2020-21 (which is better than Lucic). Better buy-out (especially in 2021).

Kind of like crab-walking a 1500m race, may take a while but still better than not moving at all.

YKOil

Nit64: ~ measure once cut twice ~

So… two rabbit’s feet then. Got it.

Bulging Twine

Parsing Stauffer today on OilersNow
I’m guessing it’s down to McCrimmon or Hunter

FWIW
Lawton was given Hunter, McCrimmon, Verbeek, Mahoney and asked his thoughts on each. He said out of all those he’d choose McCrimmon then Hunter. Said that Verbeek (who he played with) may have a tough time with his first GM role. Mahoney – questioned how close to the action/top he’s been as he’s never lived in Washington.
Oh and he said Burke would be similar to Verbeek. They would need support – tough time in first gig.

Bob said that Burke would be more of a consideration in a lesser role.

Ben

Huh. Maybe Spooner/Gagner was a preview for Lucic/Eriksson.

The buyout is marginally less shitty.

Would rather try the half-retained + sweetener move.

Foege Foegele Torpe

Nit64: ~ measure once cut twice ~

Eyeball the length, cut it wrong
Throw the board into the maybe pile & grab a new one
Oilers drafting model

leadfarmer

OriginalPouzar,

Well you shorten the pain by a year. Maybe you can then add something small to flip him for Darling and shave another year and have a guy easier to buyout
It’s not going to be easy or painless to get rid of Lucic
Hope he gets so sick of Edmonton that they mutually terminate his contract on July 1

OriginalPouzar

leadfarmer: You expect to get relief from trading Lucic?You will get no relief.
Maybe less pain, and that is what Erickson is
His contract is one year shorter, that’s a big deal
Hedid score 10 goals at least
We don’t get rid of Lucic without taking something ugly back
Hope that ugly has shorter contract than longer

I was going to add that the contract likely has a better buyout structure but it doesn’t – its awful as well with a $5.5M cap hit the first two years.

One additional thing is that it doesn’t have a NMC so he isn’t a must-protect.

I would assume that Lucic would waive his NMC to allow us to expose him in the expansion draft but am unsure if that is permitted – obviously Seattle would never take him.

Ice Sage

Been hearing for 2 years how good Hurricanes numbers are and perplexity as to why they’re not getting better results. Well, sooner or later a stopped clock will be right. Or goaltending. Good for them, Brind’amour and Williams may get to relive 2006 yet.

Kinger_Oil.redux

Munny: The darker blue background in this article’s body is veeerrryy close to the old blue text background.

The lighter blue in the top header on the old blog was hex code #0066CC.

https://web.archive.org/web/20070716144528/http://lowetide.blogspot.com/

– Wow! Is there a way to look at all these old posts? So cool

who

Watching the Blues and Stars.
Does anyone know what’s more annoying than listening to Pierre McGuire?
I think it’s listening to the female version of him. And then having to listen to both of them compete with each other to prove to us how smart they are.
I had to turn the sound off.

leadfarmer

Bruce McCurdy: I fail to see how one deadweight $6 million contract replacing another deadweigt $6 million contract moves the needle for cap relief.

You expect to get relief from trading Lucic? You will get no relief.
Maybe less pain, and that is what Erickson is
His contract is one year shorter, that’s a big deal
He did score 10 goals at least
We don’t get rid of Lucic without taking something ugly back
Hope that ugly has shorter contract than longer

Rebillled

Although i despise them, it would be funny for the Hurricanes to have more cups than Calgary and Vancouver combined.

50 years of tears!

Rebillled

Kinger_Oil.redux,

1. Pick traded in a bad deal or Krebs
2. Hunter
3. Hitchcock
4. Benson, Gamb, Jones, Bouch
5. Oilers but hopefully Van
6. Oilers because of the injury
7. All stay
8. 2, Lucic for Kovalchuk,
9. Elliot but more likely a different goalie.
10. The new goalie
11. Sather by means of a large boat.

OriginalPouzar

Francois Gagnon

Verified account

@GagnonFrancois
3h3 hours ago
More
Edmonton #Oilers asked and obtained permission to discuss with #Habs assistant GM Scott Mellandy in there quest to find a new GM in replacement of Peter Chiarelli fired last january

Glovjuice

godot10: A university professor who cannot follow instructions! -).

I didn’t either and have an MSc and have taught lots of University courses.

OriginalPouzar

Munny:
OriginalPouzar,

Isn’t Spector on record stating Lucic asked for a trade last summer?

If that’s true, and I expect it is, I can’t see him rejecting a trade to anywhere that isn’t deplorable (to him).

___________

As an aside… it somewhat surprises me how athletes view themselves.I know they had to have had a lot of belief in themselves to have the kind of career Lucic has had.And I’m sure he wants a second opinion (ie an opportunity elsewhere), but they often seem to think they’ve still got it, despite lots of evidence to the contrary.

I don’t think Lucic’s NMC is much of an impediment to any trade. The $6M X 4 is the impediment to a trade.

Bruce McCurdy

leadfarmer:
Lucic to Vancouver
Well I can’t think of a better place for him.Maybe Calgary
Just give us Erickson and be done with it

I fail to see how one deadweight $6 million contract replacing another deadweigt $6 million contract moves the needle for cap relief.

Glovjuice

Bag of Pucks: I would create an online portal for all of the amateur and pro scouting staff to input data for every prospect they are grading on an ongoing basis with the ability to waterfall the data so you can start to see trends in terms of development/performance spikes.

The portal design is critical especially for the qualitative side as you need to create inputs that force users to consider what their eyes are seeing and then express that in a quantitative grade. Qualitative falls down imo when it’s reduced to comment inputs that can’t be aggregated to a measurable.

Portal would obviously include all available quantitative measurables include the types of data gathered at a scouting combine as well as behavioural test scores and contract data for pro scouting profiles so you can filter the measurement model to assess and project cap efficiencies.

The general rule on this stuff is you start by creating more inputs/measurements than you actually need (everything but the kitchen sink) and then you gradually dial some out as the forecasting model becomes robust and you see patterns in terms of which inputs are most contributing to actual insight. Essentially you start data noisy and reduce the noise over time.

Why doesn’t the hockey combine testing include a variety of timed skating drills that would enable skating analytics coming onto the draft. It blows my mind. Without shrooms.

condormcdavis

defmn,

Man your words are wise beyond anything I can explain.

I’ve divided this world into people who spend their time studying how to make the right decision

People who spend their time living with whatever comes

And folks who try to balance both well.

The Oilers don’t fit any of my paradigms

SAD

Scungilli Slushy

JimmyV1965:
The question of drafting dmen outside the first round got me thinking. (Very strange for me.) From a numbers perspective, are teams better off drafting dmen late in the draft? Are dmen outside the first or second round more likely to have an impact than forwards?

There can’t be a set in stone system. There are too many variables which is shown in draft position success which a few folks have put numbers to.

Which leads to drafting what is the most valuable- skill. Draft skill and potential and fill the NHL team bottom half of the roster with readily available cheap signings and trades or prospects that don’t progress to top half players.

Ben

Love to see a splash of Covered in Oil clip-art on here, too.

Scungilli Slushy

Litke 94: Definitely a different situation in terms of potential return, but I think the core of the issue in terms of where it leaves your D is the same.

The Oilers have invested a lot of time into Klefbom who in turn has developed into a very fine defenseman. The Oilers best, when healthy. In theory, that invested development should just now be maximizing its return in the form of 4-5 years of Klefbom in his fully-developed, prime state.

I think even if the return was Ehlers, as good as he is, it wouldn’t be enough to counteract the issue of losing your best home-grown defenseman who is entering his prime on a relatively good contract. I don’t think that an external fill-in for Klefbom could be achieved without paying dearly.

If the goal is an Ehlers type player, I think the way you get their is trading prospects and picks. To me, trading Klefbom for Ehlers or someone similar is like robbing Peter to pay Paul. It gains you no further ground than where you were when you began.

Defensemen have a larger impact on the game than forwards other than elite forwards, which Ehlers is not, because they play more and a harder position. So the Jets win that trade.

See Tampa looking awful because IMO Hedman was hurt and out. Suddenly rock solid Vas looked shaky.

Where the oilers lack on D is right side, the hardest to fill. Benning struggles above 3rd pair. All of the hopefuls are best suited at 3rd pair. Larsson is serviceable at 1rd with a strong partner but doesn’t use the skill he has either by choice or team direction.

Finding a partner for Nurse would change everything. I think he would take a step with a player he could pass to and trust to stand ground. His weakness is doing too much and his natural game is to use his physical advantage it leads to him running around. I think he’d settle more with proper help.

Look for untapped players or cap dumps and use lesser assets to get the right side shored up. I think overall offensive would improve and GA would go down. And Koski would be better.

A top 6 winger would be nice but again buy low, use prospects and a non first, look for undervalued or a cap dump

Munny

Woodguy v2.0: I want lowetide.blogspot.com light blue.

The darker blue background in this article’s body is veeerrryy close to the old blue text background.

The lighter blue in the top header on the old blog was hex code #0066CC.

https://web.archive.org/web/20070716144528/http://lowetide.blogspot.com/

Munny

Justin Faulk just shingled Lehner’s roof…

Munny

Does it trike anyone as unusual that a prospective GM had to make it clear that he wants “full autonomy”?

Woodguy v2.0

Nit64: ~ Still holding out for vintage computer blinking green ~

I want lowetide.blogspot.com light blue.

Munny

OriginalPouzar,

Isn’t Spector on record stating Lucic asked for a trade last summer?

If that’s true, and I expect it is, I can’t see him rejecting a trade to anywhere that isn’t deplorable (to him).

___________

As an aside… it somewhat surprises me how athletes view themselves. I know they had to have had a lot of belief in themselves to have the kind of career Lucic has had. And I’m sure he wants a second opinion (ie an opportunity elsewhere), but they often seem to think they’ve still got it, despite lots of evidence to the contrary.

Woodguy v2.0

godot10: It is a mistake to trade players like Klefbom entering the prime of their career.The Oilers have been doing this for the last decade.

The core of any team is its players aged 25-29, plus superstars.The Oilers have maintained a donut hole in the 25-29 years age range for a decade.It is why they have been awful.

This should be nailed to the front door at EDM’s offices and everyone needs to read it before entering.

We would also accept “not enough NHL players”

N64

Andy Dufresne: So, Plan, Measure Everything, Set Controls, Exhibit Leadership,………….and carry a rabbits foot.

~ measure once cut twice ~

dustrock

Woodguy v2.0: This is why scouts will always be important.

There are factors that contribute to future success which are tough to glean from on ice results.

Some of that is baked into on ice results, but QoT can overwhelm them.

I mean any field should have best practices. Is this a thing that the Oilers even have heard of?

Sure, might mean you occasionally don’t follow them because they are “best” practices and we are fallible, lazy, judgmental human beings, but even to work through the best practices requires a certain level of understanding of one’s field.

dustrock

Woodguy v2.0: I prefer “knock on wood”

Of course I immediately go to

NEVER HAD TO KNOCK ON WOOD BUT I KNOW SOMEONE WHO HAS

Foege Foegele Torpe

dustrock:
Jaxon,

Thanks a ton for this.

Cozens certainly looks better 5v5 than Dach and Krebs.

Hence the reason why he will be off the board by the time the Oilers pick

Scungilli Slushy

Bag of Pucks: A fully functional analytics department should be gathering and grading both quantitative and qualitative data. Leon would likely have elevated based on the qualitative.

This is what many don’t seem to appreciate, particularly the hasty critics of analytics/big data.

It’s NOT numbers vs eye test. It’s creating a system and structure to measure and accommodate both facets of data accrual. Most importantly, it’s primary function is to eliminate noise and create context to empower insights and decision making.

Anyone who suggests quantitative alone is sufficient is flying in the face of the cutting edge science on this. A great example is what online retailers are doing with eye tracking technology to optimize websites. They’re taking qualitative data input here and crunching it into quantitative output to make site UXs more profitable.

The human brain is a pretty capable data analysis engine that has protected us from extinction for eons. We underestimate it and its ability to gather qualitative data at our own detriment. Where the brain needs help is through structuring all that stimuli into a useable measurement model to create context.

To me an analytics department is less necessary in picking first round draftees. Where it’s critical is with discovering value in later picks and especially pro undervalued players.

Unless you have an enormous scouting staff there is too much to look at. The entire world is being scouted now. The days of the Detroit model which was based on finding talent in unexploited leagues is a thing of the past.

Analytics can find players and scouts can then be directed to look closely at them. Drafting first round now almost needs no resources, just read Bob’s and Al’s pieces, it’s all there.

Ari

Jethro Tull,

Haha!
My heart skipped a beat until I read the quoted comment again.

Woodguy v2.0

SkatinginSand: Talking to a former NHL amateur scout, the best way to find out about these things is to talk to the trainers. For a cup of good coffee and a doughnut, most of them will tell you everything with brutal honesty.

This is why scouts will always be important.

There are factors that contribute to future success which are tough to glean from on ice results.

Some of that is baked into on ice results, but QoT can overwhelm them.

Woodguy v2.0

godot10: A university professor who cannot follow instructions! -).

A prof who doesn’t read the instructions and assumes whatever they do is correct.

🙂