The Oilers and the WHL
The WHL is something close to home base for the Edmonton Oilers, the team’s devotion to its backyard league is detailed here. The organization skipped ‘the dub’ last season, spending precious resources instead in the OHL, QMJHL, Finnish Jr and schools in the New Hampshire townships. The way this year’s draft is setting up, it’s a good bet we’ll see at least one pick from the WHL in 2019. Photo by Rob Ferguson.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group.INSANE NEW OFFER IS HERE!
- New Jonathan Willis: Is Ken Holland yesterday’s man or the ideal GM candidate for the Oilers?
- New Lowetide: Jesse Puljujarvi and his uncertain future with the Oilers
- New Lowetide: ‘I see something special’: Are Oilers prepared to make Caleb Jones a fixture on the roster next season?
- New Jonathan Willis: Gritty comeback performance sends Edmonton’s farm team to the second round of the AHL playoffs.
- New Lowetide: Dylan Cozens might be ideal fit for Oilers at No. 8 overall in the 2019 draft
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Hard to please, but easy to work for’: How Sean Burke’s philosophy as a GM would benefit the Oilers.
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: A dogged realist, Kelly McCrimmon’s resume makes him an attractive candidate for the Oilers GM job
- New Lowetide: Is this the season the Oilers take the plunge and draft a USHL player in the first round?
- Jonathan Willis: Top Oilers prospect Evan Bouchard stars in his first AHL game as Condors dominate.
- Lowetide: Adam Larsson’s importance to the Oilers and why trading him is a bad idea.
- Lowetide: Tyler Benson’s comparables offer Oilers fans plenty of hope for the future.
- Lowetide: Making the call on the Oilers’ RFAs with a new general manager on the way.
- Lowetide: Red Wings front office shuffle could impact Oilers’ future.
- Jonathan Willis: Potential coaching candidates and why the Oilers don’t need to rush the GM search to get one
- Lowetide: What would Glen Sather do with these Oilers?
- Jonathan Willis: Some creative solutions to address the Oilers’ goalie problem
- Lowetide: The Milan Lucic saga rolls into Year 4 for Oilers with no easy answers
- Jonathan Willis: Who stays and who goes? An early projection of which players will remain on the Oilers’ roster in 2019-20
- Lowetide: How high can these Condors fly?
- Lowetide: The Oilers possible summer trade pieces, and which longtime players might be saying goodbye.
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ten prospects likely to be available when the Oilers make their first-round pick
WHL’S BEST, 2019
- Bowen Byram, LHD, Vancouver Giants. 67, 26-45-71 (1.06)
- Kirby Dach, RHC, Saskatoon Blades. 62, 25-48-73 (1.18)
- Dylan Cozens, RHC, Lethbridge Hurricanes. 68, 34-50-84 (1.24)
- Peyton Krebs, LW, Kootenay Ice. 64, 19-49-68 (1.06)
- Matthew Robertson, LHD, Edmonton Oil Kings. 52, 7-26-33 (0.63)
- Brett Leason, RW, Prince Albert Raiders. 55, 36-53-89 (1.62) (OA)
- Brayden Tracey, LW, Moose Jaw Warriors. 66, 36-45-81 (1.23)
- Lassi Thomson, RHD, Kelowna Rockets. 63, 17-24-41 (0.65)
- Mads Sogaard, G Medicine Hat Tigers. 37, 2.64 .921
- Nolan Foote, LW, Kelowna Rockets. 66, 36-27-63 (0.95)
- Luka Burzan LHC, Brandon Wheat Kings. 68, 40-38-78 (1.15) (OA)
- Adam Beckman, LW, Spokane Chiefs. 68, 32-30-62 (0.91)
- Kaedan Korczak, RD, Kelowna Rockets. 68, 4-29-33 (0.49)
- Dillon Hamaliuk, LW, Seattle Thunderbirds. 31, 11-15-26 (.84)
- Oleg Zaitsev, LHC, Red Deer Rebels. 66, 13-30-54 (0.65)
- Trent Miner, G, Vancouver Giants. 32, 1.98 .924.
- Alexei Protas, LC, Prince Albert Raiders. 61, 11-29-40 (0.66)
- Gianni Fairbrother, LHD, Everett Silvertips. 64, 10-26-36 (0.56)
- Sasha Mutala, RW, Tri-City Americans. 65, 20-21-41 (0.63)
- Reece Newkirk, LHC, Portland Winterhawks. 68, 23-36-59 (0.87)
- Josh Williams, RW, Edmonton Oil Kings. 66, 14-19-33 (0.50)
- Quinn Schmiemann, LHD, Kamloops Blazers. 58, 5-23-28 (0.48)
- Dustin Wolf, Everett Silvertips. 61, 1.69 .936
- Martin Lang, RW, Kamloops Blazers. 65, 11-22-33 (0.51)
- Luke Toporowski, LHC, Spokane Chiefs. 67, 21-28-49 (0.73)
- Ben McCartney, LW, Brandon Wheat Kings. 67, 21-20-41 (0.61)
- Vladimir Alistrov, LW, Edmonton Oil Kings. 62, 12-26-38 (0.61)
- Henry Rybinski, RW, Seattle Thunderbirds. 33, 7-28-35 (1.06)
- Mark Kastelic, RHC, Calgary Hitmen. 66, 47-30-77 (1.17) (OA)
- Cole Moberg, RHD, Prince George Cougars. 61, 13-27-40 (0.66) (OA)
- Jackson van de Leest, LHD, Calgary Hitmen. 67, 1-20-21 (0.31)
- Krystof Hrabik, LHC, Tri-City Americans. 63, 21-30-51 (0.81) (OA)
- Jake Lee, LHD, Seattle Thunderbirds. 67, 3-21-24 (0.36)
This is my WHL list. I have two players that still have me wondering. Brett Leason is an overager, not sure if my ranking is too high. He’s a famous older prospect, and that helps him no doubt. That said, he’s also talented. The other player is Brayden Tracey, who played on a line that zoomed him. I haven’t decided on those two men yet, the rest are fairly set.
ELLIOTTE FRIEDMAN
Yesterday, people were still wondering what Rod Pedersen was talking about, but now Holland is part of a trio at the top along with Mark Hunter and Kelly McCrimmon. The wording around McCrimmon’s availability is vague, so his inclusion might be overstating. Please click on Mr. Friedman’s link here.
Gathering up all of the wayward bits and pieces I have heard and read, I think we have one of those elementary school math questions that is really two questions in one (a train leaves Edmonton averaging x miles an hour..).
It sounds like the job belongs to Ken Holland if he wants it. I imagine the Oilers would make efforts to retain Keith Gretzky and have him working alongside the same way as Holland did with Jim Devellano in the 1990’s. Holland trumps all. Jon’s article from yesterday (link above) is an excellent assessment of Holland.
Next up is Kelly McCrimmon, who apparently isn’t free to take the job. The wording by Mr. Friedman has the look of parsing, so one imagines the two sides are a little way down the road, perhaps to the point where Vegas may have to elevate McCrimmon to keep him. As in the case of Holland, Edmonton doesn’t control the story.
As for autonomy, it’s easily promised but the Oilers themselves may not have a firm grasp on the request. The organization is so set in its ways McCrimmon may be talking about a world the Oilers don’t understand. Edmonton is still in the days of receiving your phone messages by picking up a bunch of pink message slips after a two-hour lunch. It’s 1975. Analytics is available to them, but they need someone who can explain it, and more importantly, someone they respect enough to listen and learn from, applying it in real time.
Mark Hunter appears to be the first man on the list who is available and has both met the standards and wants the opportunity. I read somewhere Nicholson wanted to wrap this up in the next week to 10 days, that benefits Hunter more than anyone. Sean Burke may also be idling in the driveway.
THE 2014 DRAFT
Around these parts, once the draft slot was known, the mantra was “stay idle for Draisaitl” and Craig MacTavish delivered. That accomplishment sometimes gets obscured by other events but Edmonton won a major victory over the other lottery teams that day.
MacT mentioned analytics on draft weekend, specifically the idea of dealing down for basically equal talent. Although I have written thousands of words about Anton Slepyshev, William Carrier and Valentin Zykov, I don’t think it hurt the Oilers to make those trades. Sometimes good risks have less than ideal outcomes, doesn’t mean they were bad risks after the fact.
2014 NHLE’s
- Sam Bennett (OHL) 16-23-39
- Robby Fabri (OHL) 19-18-37
- Sam Reinhart (WHL) 13-24-37
- Nikolaj Ehlers (QMJHL) 17-18-35
- Michael Dal Colle (OHL) 14-21-35
- Leon Draisaitl (WHL) 13-22-35
- Nick Ritchie (OHL) 16-14-30
- Ivan Barbashev (QMJHL) 11-19-30
- Brendan Perlini (OHL) 14-16-30
- Jake Virtanen (WHL) 14-7-21
2014 Bruce McCurdy on Leon Draisaitl: The big centre (listed as 6’1, 209) was neither overly physically aggressive nor a speedster, but largely impressed this observer with his overall command of the game. The play went through his stick constantly, and for the most part, good or at least promising things developed thereafter. He showed a couple of bursts of what I would term “situational speed” but his A game is clearly one of controlling the play rather than pushing it. As I said to my voice recorder at one point, “When the puck is on Draisaitl’s stick, he owns it. Even if there’s a guy in his kitchen he’s in full control.” And later, “Very calm with the puck on his stick, not quite nonchalant but knows how much time he’s got, which in this league is a lot. Big and strong and can dangle the puck out of reach of the man who’s on him, pick his spot and distribute… A lot of subtle stuff, some little mistakes at the end of shifts, but with the puck on his stick he makes a lot of good decisions.”
I have been hard on the rest of the 2014 draft (beyond Leon), but William Lagesson might just save the entire endeavor. Edmonton can’t bitch no matter, Draisaitl alone is plenty for one draft. Lagesson has the look of a player who will spend some time in the NHL. Will it be 100 games? 250? 500?
Edmonton also received a trade tree by dealing Liam Coughlin to Chicago for the rights to Anders Nilsson. Graham McPhee is the current asset on the tree. Perhaps they’ll trade him to Vegas for McCrimmon. Tyler Vesel also remains in the system from the 2014 draft.
ERIC RODGERS GOALIE STATS
Eric passed along a fascinating view of AHL goalies, Starrett clearly the best option and the two freshman have miles to go. There is separation between Wells and Skinner for sure. If Starrett gets some NHL games next season, could he be consistently good?
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
A busy morning with three fun guests. It all gets started at 10, with our friend Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal dropping in around 10:20. We’ll chat about the GM possibilities and about Leon in his draft year. Gabe Lacques from USA Today will chat about the Jays and the rotation, plus the BoSox and their challenging start. Jon Campbell from OddsShark will chime in on the Kentucky Derby, NBA and NHL playoffs. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
With Yamamoto and Skinner graduating to pro hockey, it was odd not having any prospects in the WHL last year. Its never a bad thing to focus on the OHL in my opinion.
It seems likely that the pick at #8 will likely be a USHL or WHL player.
Sam Bennett (OHL) 16-23-39
Robby Fabri (OHL) 19-18-37
Sam Reinhart (WHL) 13-24-37
Nikolaj Ehlers (QMJHL) 17-18-35
Michael Dal Colle (OHL) 14-21-35
Leon Draisaitl (WHL) 13-22-35
Nick Ritchie (OHL) 16-14-
Question is, would a fully stocked Analytics Department have selected Draisaitl over Bennett and the others. I dont thnk so.
Wasn’t WIlliam Lagesson a 2014 pick?
To this point, a solid pick and a player that has been developed perfectly by the organization which is about to reap the benefits.
Good. We cant seem to evaluate/handle/develop players who dont play their Junior Hockey in North America.
” Edmonton is still in the days of receiving your phone messages by picking up a bunch of pink message slips after a two-hour lunch.”
Whoever ordered stationary in 75 had a great sense of humor ordering those slips in pink. Long running joke in many offices. What the Oil need is some pink slips that mean it.
So, Cooper Marody is “day to day”. Kailer Yamamoto has been “day to day” for weeks but hasn’t played a second. Hopefully Marody’s “day to day” is actual “day to day”.
I wonder what happens if he can’t go? The assumption is that Ryan McLeod will be signed an on his way to join the Condors prior to the weekend.
They could slot him right in a 1C with Benson and Currie although I doubt they would actually do that and think they’d move up someone like Vesel or Callahan and play McLeod down the lineup.
Of course, McLeod may not even see the ice even with the Marody injury – Cameron Hebig has been a healthy scratch the last few games (as they have gone with 11F and 7D to make room for Bouchard’s extremely sheltered minutes). There is a valid argument that Hebig deserves ice over McLeod – in the name of team success.
Will be curious to see how this plays out. I would love to see Marody healthy enough to play, of course, and McLeod in the lineup – doubt we see that though.
Also worth noting, we wiffed on Yak, but our other 1OV’s turned out just fine: Hall, RNH, McDavid.
And now we can add Draisatil to the list because in a 2014 redraft he goes #1OV and its not even close.
– I’ll keep posting this untill they announce a new GM (I say they have untill early June, which still gives a month before draft),
– Pretty good take-up so far: this off-season seems “easier” ?
– So armchair GM bragging rights for next season, winner gets a LT PayPal donation
– What will the Oilers do this off-season:
Please respond
1
2
3
…
1) Who is the Oiler’s first pick?
2) Who is the Oilers GM?
3) Who is the Oilers Coach?
4) How many draft and develop players make the roster opening night from existing AHL playoff roster/Europe/College/Draft pick, etc
5) What team is Lucic on next year?
6) What team is Pool on next year?
7) Which of Sek, Larsson, Benning, Nurse, Klef, Russell aren’t on open game line-up?
8) Number of roster player for roster player(s) trades? Bonus for calling it
9) Biggest off-season free-agent signing (by salary)
10) Who is Koski’s back-up game 1?
11) Which members of “OBC” sail on ?
what is the separation between Wells and Skinner?
True enough. It is important to remember there is no infallible path to the right decision. Collect as much information as possible from every source you can access, close your eyes, hold your nose and make a decision.
And live with it.
That last part is what so many never master.
How has Dal Colle not made it? I know he played a couple games this year. Had such a great story. Slow boots??
Still lovin the use of colour in the blog.
My pick for 4th or 6th round selection ……
Sasha Mutala, RW, Tri-City Americans. 65, 20-21-41 (0.63)
This would be a skill pick. Pedigree is there. Haven’t seen him enough to know beyond he finished fairly strong and should blow up the WHL next year. I would hope a 40 Goal season is in him. Bottom line is he has skill, so perhaps he can be developed and land in Edmonton in Draft + 4 or 5
I see Lagesson is mentioned later in the blog, rightfully so.
I think he sees a fulsome NHL career – hopefully its as an Oiler – the only reason that would suggest it may not be is if Jones truly pops and plays the left side and Lagesson is blocked and used as a trade sweetener – Samorukov the other wild card there but he’s a ways away from the NHL conversation.
+1. No team or person could ever accurately predict each draft. They can slighly increase their odds by using every tool and technique available, but can never know for sure.
How to you measure drive? Intensity? Training Habits? Off ice Habits?
How do you know if a player is more prone to substance abuse?
How do you know if a player has been so talented they haven’t had to apply themselves and didn’t work that hard compared to a player that was 100% dedicated.
It’s a crap shoot. But even with that said, some teams are clearly better at the entire Draft the correct person, develop players a certain way, insert into big club.
yes LT. +1.
just double check that your links are underlined? like the Friedman one doesn’t seem to be …
Here’s hoping that 3 years form now in a 2018 redraft, Bouchard is top 5 and Samorukov top 10.
~ And that they play for the Oil. ~
Just a smally LT, but can you make the links more pronounced? Ta.
6 degrees.
When is the last time a #1/2 defenseman was drafted out of the third round? I’ve heard some people say Samorukov has all the tools to be a top pair guy. Curious about the chances of that actually happening.
We’ll have to Starrett them for a year or two more to get a better idea, I think.
I see what you did there. But what do you think about the Condors recent healthy scratch? Some people think he’s undersized for the NHL but personally I think Hebig enough.
Mark Spector
@SportsnetSpec
·
5m
Looks like C Ryan McLeod will sign an Amateur Try Out with Edmonton, and also his three-year Entry Level Contract. The ATO means he doesn’t burn a year when assigned to AHL
@Condors
this week.
Deal should be done today.
Carolina’s top 3 defencemen by ATOi went in the 4th (Slavin), 2nd (Faulk) & 3rd (Pesce) rounds.
St. Louis drafted Colten Parayko in the 3rd.
Pretty sure there are more examples out there.
LT has anyone done the NHLE’s on this year’s WHL corpse?
I’ve mentioned a few times I’m slightly down on the scoring rates of Dach, Cozens and Krebs, though Cozens has the best 5v5 scoring rates of the 3.
Draisaitl
D-1 64 games 21-37 = 58 points
D 64 games 38 – 67=105 points
Dach
D-1 52 games 7-39=46 points
D 62 games – 25-248=73 points
Sam Reinhart
2012-13 72 games 35 50 85
2013-14 60 games 36 69 105
Dylan Cozens
2017-18 57 games 22 31 53
2018-19 68 games 34 50 84
Peyton Krebs
2017-18 67 games 17 37 54 40 -22
2018-19 64 games 19 49 68 63 -50
Granted Draisaitl is an October birthday but he took off in his draft year. Reinhart was scoring as well in his D-1 season as Krebs, Dach, Cozens were this year.
Krebs and Dach are January birthdays and Cozens February.
Obviously this isn’t weighted for overall team and league scoring, I just don’t particularly see these players, at least by their scoring, as being elite.
I’d hazard the guess that analytics is more reliable for pro scouting than amateur, since young amateur players are very much still developing and have all sorts of unquantifiable factors in play.
Klingberg went in the 5th
1) Who is the Oiler’s first pick?
2) Who is the Oilers GM?
3) Who is the Oilers Coach?
4) How many draft and develop players make the roster opening night from existing AHL playoff roster/Europe/College/Draft pick, etc
5) What team is Lucic on next year?
6) What team is Pool on next year?
7) Which of Sek, Larsson, Benning, Nurse, Klef, Russell aren’t on open game line-up?
8) Number of roster player for roster player(s) trades? Bonus for calling it
9) Biggest off-season free-agent signing (by salary)
10) Who is Koski’s back-up game 1?
11) Which members of “OBC” sail on ?
1 D. Cozens
2 M. Hunter
3 K. Hitchcock
4 Four [C. Marody, J. Gambardella, C. Jones, J. Persson]
5 Oilers
6 Oilers
7 K. Russell
8 One [Russell for A. MacDonald, on or after July 1, once Philly signs Tyler Myers]
9 M. Ferland [4 x $3.5MM]
10 C. McElhinney
11 None
Nit64,
Happens fairly often. Off the top of my head I can think of Josi, Slavin, Klingberg, Bufglen, Giordano. These guys were all drafted later, or not at all.
I think William Lagesson managed his own development path…i.e. chosing to go to US college, and then back to Sweden, staying as far away from the OIlers as he could for as long as possible.
Jacob Slavin, 4th round.
Brett Pesce, 3rd round.
I know they’re from the 2nd, but Josi and Weber?
I believe the Oilers were part of these decisions, in particular heading to Sweden for the one year (which is proving to be a massive benefit to his development, or at least it seems that way – somewhat impossible to “prove”).
1) Who is the Oiler’s first pick? – Cozens
2) Who is the Oilers GM? – Hunter
3) Who is the Oilers Coach? – Gulutzan
4) How many draft and develop players make the roster opening night from existing AHL playoff roster/Europe/College/Draft pick, etc – 2 (Jones and Gambardella)
5) What team is Lucic on next year? – Flo Rida
6) What team is Pool on next year? – Carolina
7) Which of Sek, Larsson, Benning, Nurse, Klef, Russell aren’t on open game line-up? – Benning and Sekera gone I think
8) Number of roster player for roster player(s) trades? Bonus for calling it – I’ll say two.
9) Biggest off-season free-agent signing (by salary) – Connolly – 4 x $4.5m
10) Who is Koski’s back-up game 1? – Elliott seems like the logical choice. Would have loved Mrazek.
11) Which members of “OBC” sail on ? – none, they’ll just stay in the background.
The NHL screwed up once again with Marchand.
Big time.
Bertuzzi-esque.
Lindell in the 3rd.
1975 LoL
“Gotta make it home for the start of Starsky and Hutch”
I didn’t care for the first couple iterations of colour ie: rich blue and red, but I’m liking the current colour schemes of the blog, it’s a nice change
Vishnovsky 4th round
Lidstrom 3rd round
Sekera 3rd round
Vlasic 2nd round
Yandle 4th round
PK 2nd round
Hamonic 2nd round
Spurgeon 6th(!) round
Demers 7th(!) round
Barrie 3rd round
Gudas 3rd round
Josh Manson 6th round
Ghost Bear 3rd round
If you knew that would happen, would it make trading Klefbom for Ehlers plus this summer more palatable?
I think your question is correct. Do we want Ehlers and a prospect OR Klefbom, Connelly and Nash?
If we didn’t have all these defensemen I would keep Klefbom. But if the goal is to create a second scoring line I think you got to make the trade. Ehlers is that good. I’m not sure Connelly and Nash are going to make a difference.
If you look at our forward group we have very little high end talent after the big 3
Ehlers would make it 4
Nashville has done well ..
JOSI – 2nd Round
WEBER – 2nd Round
EKHOLM – 4th Round
Rafa Nadal,
Esa Lindell, Shane Gostibehere and Colton Parayko all came out of the 3rd round in 2012 but all took 2-3 years before even playing an NHL game. Bonus points for Erik Gustafsson taken just inside the fourth round and put up 60 points this year and was even an Oilers draft pick that we inexplicably decided not to sign.
Talking to a former NHL amateur scout, the best way to find out about these things is to talk to the trainers. For a cup of good coffee and a doughnut, most of them will tell you everything with brutal honesty.
yah good point.
I heard Krebs is a workout machine, very dedicated off ice …. just sayin’
Duncan Keith – Round 2
Looks like lots of Good / Great D man come out of round 2 + …..
There has been lots of talk of moving Sekera or Russell for no return to make cap space to pay for offensive talent in the top six. The only actual option may be what you describe. Trade Klefbom for the offensive talent. Have Sekera stay in the top 4 for a year until Jones et al fully establish themselves for a year and away we go.
Just another way of re-assigning all the money being spent on the back end to some higher end forward talent (admittedly less desirable than shedding Russell instead)
As long as they continue to deal with outcomes instead of behaviours they’ll fail to meaningfully protect the players. (And they’ll keep making the stupid Eakin call).
It is a mistake to trade players like Klefbom entering the prime of their career. The Oilers have been doing this for the last decade.
The core of any team is its players aged 25-29, plus superstars. The Oilers have maintained a donut hole in the 25-29 years age range for a decade. It is why they have been awful.
The guy the Oilers draft at #8 will be 25 when McDavid likely plays his last game as an Oiler 7 years from now. We are drafted the guy who with be taking the torch…so Cozens or Krebs rather than Caulfield.
Quite shocking.
https://theprovince.com/sports/hockey/jason-botchford-popular-vancouver-sports-writer-dead-at-48
Good teams keep players like Klefbom and Nurse and are able to trade away players like Sekera and Russell to clear cap.
Lucic is another story though, that will be a hard contract to clear.
2008 DRAFT
HAMONIC – 2nd
SPURGEON – 6th
DEMERS – 7th
2009 DRAFT
ORLOV – 2nd
BARRIE – 3rd
SAVARD – 4th
EKHOLM – 4th
VATANEN – 4th
2010 DRAFT
FAULK – 2nd
KLINBERG – 5th
Interesing exercise …
There is absolutely zero chance I would trade Klefbom. That’s madness, full stop.
If you trade Klefbom, pending a return of gargantuan proportions, you will regret that every single day for the next decade. This team took a massive blow when we dealt Petry,… could only imagine what losing Klefbom would do.
Kind of a different scenario isn’t it?
We gave away Petry for a 3rd round pick? Ehlers is a totally different kettle of fish.
I’m not even sure if I’m in favor of the trade. Just presenting the other side of the argument.
The other side of the arguement is to keep Klefbom, dump Sekera or Russell for cap space, and sign a couple of middle 6 wingers.
Two problems with that approach
A. Do these two middle six wingers move the needle enough to give us a second scoring line?
B. Will these two middle wingers be considered value contracts in the second half of their deals?
Chara was a 3rd rounder as well.
Speaking of D. Did anyone read this athletic post on Moritz Seider https://theathletic.com/899840/2019/05/01/prospect-moritz-seider-could-be-one-of-the-best-german-defencemen-ever/. Very highly regarded German dman. 6″4 RHD. I wonder if Drai has any intel on him, Id be willing to trade up to grab him. The German hockey program is quietly growing rapidly with Drai making it a more popular sport. Lots of potential imo to find later value picks.
A fully functional analytics department should be gathering and grading both quantitative and qualitative data. Leon would likely have elevated based on the qualitative.
This is what many don’t seem to appreciate, particularly the hasty critics of analytics/big data.
It’s NOT numbers vs eye test. It’s creating a system and structure to measure and accommodate both facets of data accrual. Most importantly, it’s primary function is to eliminate noise and create context to empower insights and decision making.
Anyone who suggests quantitative alone is sufficient is flying in the face of the cutting edge science on this. A great example is what online retailers are doing with eye tracking technology to optimize websites. They’re taking qualitative data input here and crunching it into quantitative output to make site UXs more profitable.
The human brain is a pretty capable data analysis engine that has protected us from extinction for eons. We underestimate it and its ability to gather qualitative data at our own detriment. Where the brain needs help is through structuring all that stimuli into a useable measurement model to create context.
Bag of Pucks,
Curious, what systems would you implement to cogently ‘gather and grade’ qualitative info? Are you thinking about collating and ranking ‘expert’ opinions? Something else?
I would create an online portal for all of the amateur and pro scouting staff to input data for every prospect they are grading on an ongoing basis with the ability to waterfall the data so you can start to see trends in terms of development/performance spikes.
The portal design is critical especially for the qualitative side as you need to create inputs that force users to consider what their eyes are seeing and then express that in a quantitative grade. Qualitative falls down imo when it’s reduced to comment inputs that can’t be aggregated to a measurable.
Portal would obviously include all available quantitative measurables include the types of data gathered at a scouting combine as well as behavioural test scores and contract data for pro scouting profiles so you can filter the measurement model to assess and project cap efficiencies.
The general rule on this stuff is you start by creating more inputs/measurements than you actually need (everything but the kitchen sink) and then you gradually dial some out as the forecasting model becomes robust and you see patterns in terms of which inputs are most contributing to actual insight. Essentially you start data noisy and reduce the noise over time.
1) Who is the Oiler’s first pick?
2) Who is the Oilers GM?
3) Who is the Oilers Coach?
4) How many draft and develop players make the roster opening night from existing AHL playoff roster/Europe/College/Draft pick, etc
5) What team is Lucic on next year?
6) What team is Pool on next year?
7) Which of Sek, Larsson, Benning, Nurse, Klef, Russell aren’t on open game line-up?
8) Number of roster player for roster player(s) trades? Bonus for calling it
9) Biggest off-season free-agent signing (by salary)
10) Who is Koski’s back-up game 1?
11) Which members of “OBC” sail on ?
1) Dach
2) Hunter
3) Sheldon Keefe
4) 2 – Jones and Benson
5) Oilers
6) Oilers
7) Benning and Russell
8) 1 roster player for roster player – Benning for a “character” guy, 2 roster players traded for nothing / picks to clear minimal space
9) Simmonds $4.5M/year x 4 years
10) Starrett
11) 0 – They’ll get new labels ensuring they appear to be out of hockey ops, such as business development. They might even be removed from the “Oilers” and be assigned to whatever it is that Katz calls his business team running Ice District.
It’s true Cozens’ boxcars don’t look elite, but he did score the most even strength points among draft eligibles in the CHL, which suggests he’s the most elite scorer available in the CHL. That’s not too shabby. Perhaps the CHL is simply low in quality this year, but high relative scoring could suggest he’s more elite than he looks.
On a related note, do people have thoughts on OilKnight’s draft rankings, especially his ranking of Tomasino from the OHL?
http://theoilknight.ca/2019/04/30/top-31-prospects/
He ranks Tomasino at 6th (above Cozens at 7th), whereas most ranking have him in the 20-30 range.
Some quantitative justification: “Despite being a 3rd line checking center for the first 15-20 games or so in Niagara, Tomasino still managed to score the 2nd most even strength points in the entire CHL behind Dylan Cozens. However, he led the CHL in Pts/60 mins & is 6 months younger than guys like Cozens and Krebs.”
I’m not suggesting the Oilers take him at 8, but it seems he’d be someone to consider.
Definitely a different situation in terms of potential return, but I think the core of the issue in terms of where it leaves your D is the same.
The Oilers have invested a lot of time into Klefbom who in turn has developed into a very fine defenseman. The Oilers best, when healthy. In theory, that invested development should just now be maximizing its return in the form of 4-5 years of Klefbom in his fully-developed, prime state.
I think even if the return was Ehlers, as good as he is, it wouldn’t be enough to counteract the issue of losing your best home-grown defenseman who is entering his prime on a relatively good contract. I don’t think that an external fill-in for Klefbom could be achieved without paying dearly.
If the goal is an Ehlers type player, I think the way you get their is trading prospects and picks. To me, trading Klefbom for Ehlers or someone similar is like robbing Peter to pay Paul. It gains you no further ground than where you were when you began.
Kinger_Oil.redux,
1) Who is the Oiler’s first pick? I want Turcotte but they’ll take Cozens (because Turcotte won’t last beyond the #4)
2) Who is the Oilers GM? I want Guerin or Verbeek but they’ll take Burke because hockey Canada and the K-Gretz in the desert connection.
3) Who is the Oilers Coach? A smart team would pry Keefe away from the Leafs or promote Woodcroft; the Oilers will promote Gulutzan.
4) How many draft and develop players make the roster opening night from existing AHL playoff roster/Europe/College/Draft pick, etc? 2, Benson and Bouchard, though Bouch and Jones will be up and down throughout the season.
5) What team is Lucic on next year? The Oilers, sadly.
6) What team is Pool on next year? The Oilers loan him to that team in the KHL that wants him; the Oilers then trade his rights to a smarter team mid-season for a much smaller return than anyone around here would like (i.e. a conditional 2nd and a 5th).
7) Which of Sek, Larsson, Benning, Nurse, Klef, Russell aren’t on open game line-up? A smart team trades Russell; are the Oilers learning?
8) Number of roster player for roster player(s) trades? 1; Russell and a 2nd for Connor Brown and a 3rd in 2021, 1 Million of Russell’s salary retained. (Our new GM isn’t very good, but it’ll do).
9) Biggest off-season free-agent signing (by salary)? Michael Ferland, 4.75×4 (because you can’t coach size and because of the connection to my coach pick)
10) Who is Koski’s back-up game 1? Elliott
11) Which members of “OBC” sail on ? Howson and Bill Scott. MacT gets another ‘promotion’ to co-executive VP of Nostalgic Relations and hangs out in the C-Suite with Wayne and Kevin more regularly, while Burke installs his own person as GM of the Condors. K-Gretz stays on as VP/Player Personnel.
With a new GM coming on I think everyone is on the table for a potential trade out of town unless their name is McDavid or Drai.
~ Still holding out for vintage computer blinking green ~
I agree with everything you are saying but would quibble on one point.
If I trade Klefbom I am not bringing in an external replacement.
My top 2 lefty dman change from Klefbom, Nurse to Nurse, Sekera. It’s a downgrade, I admit, but Sekera is signed for 2 more years and by that time I am expecting Jones and Samarukov to be pushing for top 4 minutes. In this case we have a decent stopgap in Sekera.
You are robbing Peter to pay Paul, but you have the assets to reimburse Peter.
And Paul really needs the money.
So as a scout you’d watch a game and give Player X a 6.5 grade for agility/grit/puck skills, etc?
I ask from a broader curiosity about how organizations often fail to meaningfully implement qualitative data simply because they’re challenged to establish coherent “metrics” (which just implies a conversion to quantitative data), or at least organizing principles for subjective or experiential info.
Of course, pro hockey is one of the few spaces that has the opposite problem.
After reading Nugent-Bowman’s article on McCrimmon, coupled with Friedman’s tidbit of him wanting autonomy as a GM, I’m putting him as my number 1 choice for GM, with Hunter now number 2.
Both McCrimmon and Hunter have had a lot of success in junior hockey, but McCrimmon’s track record in the NHL outshines that of Hunter AND he’s already muddying the Old Boys’ trough by asking for autonomy. Before the interview!!! Love it.
You need aptitude and attitude, and McCrimmon clearly has both.
WIth Burger Bob delaying the hiring after having already spoken to Hunter twice, my guess is that the org has McCrimmon as their number one as well.
A university professor who cannot follow instructions! -).
If we want a player of Ehlers caliber we most likely have to involve the 8OV. You’re hoping that pick becomes as good as Ehlers or Klef in a few years.
– Good lord Sheps: how am I supposed to cut and paste this: why do you hate me so much!
dustrock,
This isn’t NHLe but it does attempt to compare players production and how that might transfer to the NHL. This list includes all TOI. It estimates Projected 5-on-5 Primary Points at Median Top 6 Minutes in the NHL Adjusted for Age and Era and League.
Draft – Name – “AGE & ERA ADJ
NHLE 5-on-5 P1
@TOP6TOI”
2006 – Riley Holzapfel – 30.48
2013 – Nicolas Petan – 29.48
2013 – Oliver Bjorkstrand – 29.14
2009 – Scott Glennie – 28.83
2009 – Evander Kane – 28.10
2005 – Devin Setoguchi – 27.02
2006 – Codey Burki – 26.69
2008 – Tyler Ennis – 26.04
2014 – Leon Draisaitl – 25.93
2019 – Dylan Cozens – 25.40
2014 – Chase De Leo – 25.38
2008 – Jordan Eberle – 25.12
2011 – Sven BArtschi – 25.09
2010 – Brad Ross – 24.95
2006 – Michael Grabner – 24.93
2018 – Tristen Nielsen last 39 GP – 24.93
2006 – Peter Mueller – 24.89
2014 – Jayce Hawryluk – 24.85
2005 – Gilbert Brule – 24.77
2010 – Brett Connolly – 24.66
2008 – Kruise Reddick – 24.49
2011 – Dylan Wruck – 24.43
2010 – Brendan Gallagher – 24.41
2010 – Mark Stone – 24.38
2017 – Cody Glass – 24.34
2006 – Justin Bernhardt – 24.34
2010 – Nino Niederreiter – 24.00
2017 – Kailer Yamamoto – 23.85
2005 – Kenndal McArdle – 23.80
2011 – Michael St. Croix – 23.620
2011 – Mark McNeill – 23.487
2017 – Kyle Olson – 23.397
2009 – Brayden Schenn – 23.356
2014 – Jake Virtanen – 23.314
2007 – Michal Repik – 23.265
2017 – Mason Shaw – 23.214
2011 – Brent Benson – 23.176
2016 – Dillon Dube – 23.075
2019 – Bryce Bader – 23.07
2005 – Colton Yellow Horn – 23.024
2012 – Tim Bozon – 22.811
2019 – Kirby Dach – 22.72
Here is the same list with TOI under 13.75 weeded out:
YEAR – Name – “AGE & ERA ADJ
NHLE 5-on-5 P1
@TOP6TOI”
2013 – Nicolas Petan – 29.48
2009 – Scott Glennie – 28.83
2009 – Evander Kane – 28.10
2008 – Tyler Ennis – 26.04
2014 – Leon Draisaitl – 25.93
2019 – Dylan Cozens – 25.40
2014 – Chase De Leo – 25.38
2008 – Jordan Eberle – 25.12
2011 – Sven BArtschi – 25.09
2010 – Brad Ross – 24.95
2005 – Gilbert Brule – 24.77
2011 – Dylan Wruck – 24.43
2017 – Cody Glass – 24.34
2017 – Kailer Yamamoto – 23.85
2019 – Kirby Dach – 22.72
Still some flameouts, inconsistent players in there.
List at 14.22 or higher TOI:
YEAR – Name – “AGE & ERA ADJ
NHLE 5-on-5 P1
@TOP6TOI”
2013 – Nicolas Petan – 29.48
2009 Evander Kane 28.10
2008 Tyler Ennis 26.04
2014 Leon Draisaitl 25.93
2019 – Dylan Cozens – 25.40
2008 Jordan Eberle 25.12
2011 Sven BArtschi 25.09
2005 Gilbert Brule 24.77
2017 Cody Glass 24.34
2017 Kailer Yamamoto 23.85
Krebs doesn’t come close to this group with low 5v5P1 and borderline low TOI:
Peyton Krebs – 17.95464223 5v5P1 at 14.79 TOI
Dach’s TOI is a bit low at 14.03
Tracey looks decent by this metric however:
Brayden Tracey – 21.17820934 and a whopping 16.28 TOI.
godot10,
meh. my grades were entered today. I can take a break from following instructions.
Well played, friend. Well played 🙂
Are there any details on the 3 year ELC for McLeod?
Likely a standard ELC?
Kinger_Oil.redux,
I’ll make it easier for you
the TL;DR version
1 Burke
2 Cozens
3 GG
4 2 – Benson and Bouchard
5 Oilers
6 KHL
7 Russell
8 Russell & a pick for Connor Brown and a pick, salary retained
9 Ferland (4×4.75)
10 Elliott
11 Howson and Bill Scott
And we don’t want to do that before the Expansion Draft.
If it’s just the 8OV I do it. But I think the Jets would want significantly more.
Howson and Bill Scott. MacT gets another ‘promotion’ to co-executive VP of Nostalgic Relations and hangs out in the C-Suite with Wayne and Kevin more regularly, while Burke installs his own person as GM of the Condors. K-Gretz stays on as VP/Player Personnel.
stephen sheps,
– I’ve been running this poll for 4 years: every year I ask a variance on MacT, Howson, Lowe, Sutter, Green, Scott, etc if they move, and every year many predict movement, and every year but 1 the team doesn’t make the playoffs and these guys all stay: they fire coaches, GM’s, bring in Bob: yet like those zombies these guys just get hacked, and get up again, they never die…
– What I really should have been asked is : “what growth to OBC, non-arms length will be added”: i.e Keith (and I like Keith), Coffey, Messier, Wayne, etc
What a busy morning – haven’t had time to look up. Big deals – so stressed.
Anyways, I’m sure the McLeod signing has been mention but:
Excellent – it was clear this was going to get done once Saginaw was eliminated. ELC starts next year (or else he’d burn a year by playing for the Condors) but there are ways to get him to Bakersfield for this year by signing a PTO.
I assume he gets assigned shortly but who knows if he’ll play at all or any time soon.
– Man – I knew him: same age, in Toronto, (and partied a bit in London at Uni). Had a few athletes/friends with him as well. Great wife. Young kids
He is reporting immediately, so I assume the plan is to play him as soon as they can.
The prospect of so many prospects is certainly highly exciting!
Now, Samorukov should hopefully go on to the Memorial Cup and win the MVP, and then become the Draisaitl of the Defence.
Ben,
I would think the inputs available to the scouting personnel would be restricted to pre-defined values, and there would be many, many inputs. Down to the micro of in-game events. It would be a tall order but in order to build that robust model with the goal of identifying patterns, you need to avoid personalized or aggregated data.
On second thought, you might actually need a data gopher at the elbow of the scout: eye-test and the quant.
Ostap Safin with a ghastly 2P in 17 playoff GP.
That guy fell off a cliff after last season, wow
1) Who is the Oiler’s first pick?
2) Who is the Oilers GM?
3) Who is the Oilers Coach?
4) How many draft and develop players make the roster opening night from existing AHL playoff roster/Europe/College/Draft pick, etc
5) What team is Lucic on next year?
6) What team is Pool on next year?
7) Which of Sek, Larsson, Benning, Nurse, Klef, Russell aren’t on open game line-up?
8) Number of roster player for roster player(s) trades? Bonus for calling it
9) Biggest off-season free-agent signing (by salary)
10) Who is Koski’s back-up game 1?
11) Which members of “OBC” sail on ?
1) Cozens
2) Hunter
3) Guletzan
4) 3 – Benson, Gamberdella, Jones
5) Vancouver
6) Vancouver
7) No Benning or Russell
8) Three, Benning for Connor Brown will be one
9) Ferland – 4 x $4M
10) James Riemer
11) Howsen, Sutter, Coffey, MacT
I don’t think you can turn down a deal because of the expansion draft. Good teams are going to lose good players. That’s life. Bad teams won’t lose good players. We know that very well. Griffin Reinhart says hi. As it stands today, we have three forwards and three dmen worth protecting.
I agree I’m wishing and hoping but I don’t see the Jets trading Ehlers period.
I think the key is to create inputs that seem readily intuitive to the user that are in a language they easily understand.
A number grading could be too subjective whereas a category input that assigns a proxy metric could be more useful.
With the NE Patriots, they expect scouts to quantify skills based on where it place the prospect on their roster specifically. So special teamer only, roster backup, roster starter, star player, perennial all pro, generational talent etc.
You tend to have to iterate input design a few times until you get it feeling intuitive for the user base. The good news is involving the scouts in the tool design is a great way to get it right and help create an analytics culture.
That’s the big challenge of any big data project I’ve seen. You can build an amazing tool but it’s all for naught if the entire org doesn’t buy into populating it or the C-Suite fails to leverage it for insights regularly.
The question of drafting dmen outside the first round got me thinking. (Very strange for me.) From a numbers perspective, are teams better off drafting dmen late in the draft? Are dmen outside the first or second round more likely to have an impact than forwards?
– OK: Here’s probably my only trade idea ever. What if Lucic to another team with half retained, and a mid-round pick, and then he’s traded to Vancouver with half salary retained (and that team gets another pick). And Eriksson, same thing, and he ends up in Edmonton.
– So a team like Ottawa ends up with 4 mid-round picks (or 2 teams get 2 each) and eats the cap space (and Edm and Vancouver do “inter-company transfers” for the bonuses that Ottawa has to pay over the years, as a non disclosed side-car)
– Result: Oil gets Eriksson for net cap hit of $4.5MM, and 1 year less term ($3MM of Lucic cap, + $1.5MM Eriksson salary). And Lucic goes home for net cap hit of $4.5MM
– OP: can you structure that?
Lucic clearly open to playing for Vancouver. Now, of course, Vancouver is likely not open to having Lucic play for them…. minor detail, right?
“It’s definitely something I wouldn’t rule out. It’s obviously something that could still happen,” Lucic told Sportsnet 650. “Things haven’t gone that well for me here with the Oilers, especially the last year and a half. New GM, new coach, which haven’t even been named yet, so you don’t know what their plan is moving forward and stuff like that. It’s definitely something that potentially could happen.”
I look at the picks for Gm and their is a lot of Hunter. Boy are you going to be disappointed when Kif takes over. Kif has not gone anywhere and BOB has to make a decision.That is when the trembly knees take over.
I have zero doubt that the player and his agent have full blessings to carry out a promotional tour wherever he’d be willing to move.
My read on this Van thing is about selling a narrative to a fan base in an effort to engage management.
Re: burning a year…does the same thing apply to Bouchard ?
OriginalPouzar,
McLeod signed an ATO with Bakersfield and is on his way there.
Lucic to Vancouver
Well I can’t think of a better place for him. Maybe Calgary
Just give us Erickson and be done with it
Jaxon,
Thanks a ton for this.
Cozens certainly looks better 5v5 than Dach and Krebs.
Potentially the other way around even, given the true 1D skill-set that Samorukov has. I think he’s unlikely to top out over Bouchard but I do put his ultimate ceiling higher because of his range of skill.
Yes, subtle but integral point.
The on that sticks out to me is Duncan Keith. Actually check that, he was 2nd round.
How about Josi? Dammit, 2nd round as well.
Wait, I got one, Giordano – not even drafted.
Byfuglien? The 8th round doesn’t even exist any more.
Kris Letang – 3rd round.
Hebig was always (and remains) a distant bell for the NHL – remember, we signed him during his big season which was as an over-ager – very very few that play an over-age season in junior make it.
I think he’ll work for a fine AHL career but I don’t see him as a “real prospect”.
– Hockey is so old-school and dumb. We will look back at this time in sport and wonder how people were so woefully blind, just as it’s hard to believe that 70% of Canadians didn’t believe smoking caused cancer 50 years ago:
“Bettman also says he hasn’t seen any evidence to link long-term brain damage and multiple blows to the head while playing the game.”
“The commissioner of the National Hockey League says it would be impossible to ban all hits to the head and maintain hockey as a physical game as it is today.”
– Bettman also said that smoking is 0-calories, no fat, no cholesterol, reduces stress, keeps you thin, and is important social fabric. If everyone stopped smoking, there would many angry people on the streets, and we wouldn’t be able to maintain happy workers if smoking was banned
Dick move by Marchand, obviously, but it wasn’t a suspendable offence, in my opinion, even for a multiple repeat offender.
Yes, trade Russell for no return – no-brainer.
Trading Sekera for no return could be an egregious decision – he is a very good d-man and his contract does not have negative value – well, at least it won’t come November.
Neither Puckpedia nor Capfriendly have details yet but I assume its the max $925K (including a $92.5K signing bonus).
He may have got a schedule A performance bonus or two but don’t imagine its more than $250K or so, if at all.
I wouldn’t necessarily say the play is to play him right away – in fact, I think its unlikely.
They are already healthy scratching Hebig, who battled all year with the guys, in order to make room for Bouchard and keep him sheltered (and both Day and Stanton in the lineup).
Marody’s status is a wild card but, again, the have Hebig and perhaps Yamamoto is ready to go after another week.
You don’t want to protect Lagesson, Jones or Bear?
I would also definitely want to be protecting the likes of Khaira, Benson, Marody, Yamamoto, Puljujarvi.
Nope – Bouchard’s contract is subject to slide if he doesn’t play 10 NHL games this year.
Given his signing age, McLeod’s contract is not subject to slide so, if it was a 2018/19 contract, it would kick in right away if he played.
7yrs, x $5M, full NMC, NTC. Promised games and PP time. McLeod’s agent told the Oiler’s brass “other teams were interested.”
Standard Oilers contract.
Yes, as anticipated. Thank you.
I doubt he plays any time soon, even with the Marody injury, but we’ll see.
So Bennett then? …………………………. Kidding 🙂
As was Martin St Louis
Last time I checked Clown College wasn’t a University.
Just kidding,
You’re the the fcking man Sheps!
The biggest thing that keeps McLeod out is likely just how hard some depth players went off in the Eagles series. I’d rather play him over those guys, because I think they only abused the opposition in those games because of how bad that team was, and how bad they were playing. Polei and Vesel probably don’t put the 2nd/3rd pairings of the Gulls in the dumpster. I just don’t see it happening. This is a monumental step up in competition.
Benson – Currie – Gust
Gambardella – Malone – Russell
Polei – Vesel – Callahan
McLeod – Esposito
That’s the best that I can synthesize ‘what’s good’ and ‘what could Jay realistically run’.
‘What’s good’, by pure on-ice value, is probably this:
Benson – Currie – Gust
Gambardella – Malone – Russell
McLeod – Vesel – Hebig
Polei – Callahan
A fully stocked analytics department has access to much more info than NHLEs.
Some companies are scraping video.
Some companies are manually tracking mico-stats.
I’m sure there are other things I am unaware about.
Still doesn’t mean they pick Leon, but hockey analytics is so far past what we talk about that you can’t equate the two.
Good post.
Randomness and variation vex everyone.
They vex people who smartly study data closely less, but variance is still a bitch.
I think if you study all the available data smartly and integrate it into decision making the best result is that you fuck up less.
Finding hidden gems on a regular basis is the Holy Grail, but most of the value comes in the form of not making big mistakes.
Guaranteed contracts and a salary cap means mistakes can alter a franchise for multiple years.
That’s a big deal.
So, Plan, Measure Everything, Set Controls, Exhibit Leadership,………….and carry a rabbits foot.
If there is an opportunity to divest yourself of Sekera’s contract, you have to go for it.
How much better is Sekera than Caleb Jones in a bottom pairing role right now? I’m not sure you can project him in a top 4 role. Maybe as (expensive) insurance for Klef/Nurse, but he certainly isn’t going to fill that #2 RHD position.
This is pretty close to what many teams do.
I prefer “knock on wood”
<3
Also, the school I teach at… well, it's got a bit of a reputation for a reason (they were foolish enough to hire me to teach there after all!)
Excellence is being able to perform at a high level over and over again.
If you pick Samorukov late in the third round. That could just be the luck of the draw.
If you can do it consistently… that’s excellence.
I really like this one from President Franklin D Roosevelt:
“I think we consider too much the good luck of the early bird and not enough the bad luck of the early worm.”
Ray Shero was “the bird”. Peter Chiarelli was “the worm”. 🙂
My point is that you should not delay improving your team today for some possible discomfort in the future. While we will almost certainly want to protect some of the players you listed, none of them are NHL players today. I personally think the expansion draft is an excuse for paralysis. I hope we lose a good player in expansion because that means we have a good team. We didn’t lose anyone in the last expansion because we didn’t have enough good players to protect. We had a bad team.
This is exactly it.
It’s what we tell graduate students about to start designing their methods, it’s what behavioural economics folks preach in the business world.
Qualitative and Quantitative methods have long been contested terrain. The most rigid quantitative types tend to argue that in qualitative research there isn’t enough rigour or process (or trust in the scientific method); the more militant qualitative folks tend to look at quantitative data as too limited in some ways, too broad in others and wonder exactly what stories those numbers tell. Those debates play out in grad school methods courses but to a much lesser extent out in the field.
The hope for any good research team is to find any edge you can, any new way of learning about an object or subject in the world and use multiple methods rather than intentionally limiting yourself to one. Then your team can present evidence from an informed place rather than an opinion based exclusively upon instinct (though instinct has its own value when observing people in the world) and build a set of structures to analyze and synthesize that information to show not just that it exists, but why it exists and how it works.
I think we’re already seeing some of these things happening. It’s just that the team we all love isn’t there yet.
A prof who doesn’t read the instructions and assumes whatever they do is correct.
🙂
This is why scouts will always be important.
There are factors that contribute to future success which are tough to glean from on ice results.
Some of that is baked into on ice results, but QoT can overwhelm them.
Jethro Tull,
Haha!
My heart skipped a beat until I read the quoted comment again.
To me an analytics department is less necessary in picking first round draftees. Where it’s critical is with discovering value in later picks and especially pro undervalued players.
Unless you have an enormous scouting staff there is too much to look at. The entire world is being scouted now. The days of the Detroit model which was based on finding talent in unexploited leagues is a thing of the past.
Analytics can find players and scouts can then be directed to look closely at them. Drafting first round now almost needs no resources, just read Bob’s and Al’s pieces, it’s all there.
Hence the reason why he will be off the board by the time the Oilers pick
Of course I immediately go to
NEVER HAD TO KNOCK ON WOOD BUT I KNOW SOMEONE WHO HAS
I mean any field should have best practices. Is this a thing that the Oilers even have heard of?
Sure, might mean you occasionally don’t follow them because they are “best” practices and we are fallible, lazy, judgmental human beings, but even to work through the best practices requires a certain level of understanding of one’s field.
~ measure once cut twice ~
This should be nailed to the front door at EDM’s offices and everyone needs to read it before entering.
We would also accept “not enough NHL players”
OriginalPouzar,
Isn’t Spector on record stating Lucic asked for a trade last summer?
If that’s true, and I expect it is, I can’t see him rejecting a trade to anywhere that isn’t deplorable (to him).
___________
As an aside… it somewhat surprises me how athletes view themselves. I know they had to have had a lot of belief in themselves to have the kind of career Lucic has had. And I’m sure he wants a second opinion (ie an opportunity elsewhere), but they often seem to think they’ve still got it, despite lots of evidence to the contrary.
I want lowetide.blogspot.com light blue.
Does it trike anyone as unusual that a prospective GM had to make it clear that he wants “full autonomy”?
Justin Faulk just shingled Lehner’s roof…
The darker blue background in this article’s body is veeerrryy close to the old blue text background.
The lighter blue in the top header on the old blog was hex code #0066CC.
https://web.archive.org/web/20070716144528/http://lowetide.blogspot.com/
Defensemen have a larger impact on the game than forwards other than elite forwards, which Ehlers is not, because they play more and a harder position. So the Jets win that trade.
See Tampa looking awful because IMO Hedman was hurt and out. Suddenly rock solid Vas looked shaky.
Where the oilers lack on D is right side, the hardest to fill. Benning struggles above 3rd pair. All of the hopefuls are best suited at 3rd pair. Larsson is serviceable at 1rd with a strong partner but doesn’t use the skill he has either by choice or team direction.
Finding a partner for Nurse would change everything. I think he would take a step with a player he could pass to and trust to stand ground. His weakness is doing too much and his natural game is to use his physical advantage it leads to him running around. I think he’d settle more with proper help.
Look for untapped players or cap dumps and use lesser assets to get the right side shored up. I think overall offensive would improve and GA would go down. And Koski would be better.
A top 6 winger would be nice but again buy low, use prospects and a non first, look for undervalued or a cap dump
Love to see a splash of Covered in Oil clip-art on here, too.
There can’t be a set in stone system. There are too many variables which is shown in draft position success which a few folks have put numbers to.
Which leads to drafting what is the most valuable- skill. Draft skill and potential and fill the NHL team bottom half of the roster with readily available cheap signings and trades or prospects that don’t progress to top half players.
defmn,
Man your words are wise beyond anything I can explain.
I’ve divided this world into people who spend their time studying how to make the right decision
People who spend their time living with whatever comes
And folks who try to balance both well.
The Oilers don’t fit any of my paradigms
SAD
Why doesn’t the hockey combine testing include a variety of timed skating drills that would enable skating analytics coming onto the draft. It blows my mind. Without shrooms.
I fail to see how one deadweight $6 million contract replacing another deadweigt $6 million contract moves the needle for cap relief.
I don’t think Lucic’s NMC is much of an impediment to any trade. The $6M X 4 is the impediment to a trade.
I didn’t either and have an MSc and have taught lots of University courses.
Francois Gagnon
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@GagnonFrancois
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Edmonton #Oilers asked and obtained permission to discuss with #Habs assistant GM Scott Mellandy in there quest to find a new GM in replacement of Peter Chiarelli fired last january
Kinger_Oil.redux,
1. Pick traded in a bad deal or Krebs
2. Hunter
3. Hitchcock
4. Benson, Gamb, Jones, Bouch
5. Oilers but hopefully Van
6. Oilers because of the injury
7. All stay
8. 2, Lucic for Kovalchuk,
9. Elliot but more likely a different goalie.
10. The new goalie
11. Sather by means of a large boat.
Although i despise them, it would be funny for the Hurricanes to have more cups than Calgary and Vancouver combined.
50 years of tears!
You expect to get relief from trading Lucic? You will get no relief.
Maybe less pain, and that is what Erickson is
His contract is one year shorter, that’s a big deal
He did score 10 goals at least
We don’t get rid of Lucic without taking something ugly back
Hope that ugly has shorter contract than longer
Watching the Blues and Stars.
Does anyone know what’s more annoying than listening to Pierre McGuire?
I think it’s listening to the female version of him. And then having to listen to both of them compete with each other to prove to us how smart they are.
I had to turn the sound off.
– Wow! Is there a way to look at all these old posts? So cool
Been hearing for 2 years how good Hurricanes numbers are and perplexity as to why they’re not getting better results. Well, sooner or later a stopped clock will be right. Or goaltending. Good for them, Brind’amour and Williams may get to relive 2006 yet.
I was going to add that the contract likely has a better buyout structure but it doesn’t – its awful as well with a $5.5M cap hit the first two years.
One additional thing is that it doesn’t have a NMC so he isn’t a must-protect.
I would assume that Lucic would waive his NMC to allow us to expose him in the expansion draft but am unsure if that is permitted – obviously Seattle would never take him.
Look, do you want a solution or a distraction?
OriginalPouzar,
Well you shorten the pain by a year. Maybe you can then add something small to flip him for Darling and shave another year and have a guy easier to buyout
It’s not going to be easy or painless to get rid of Lucic
Hope he gets so sick of Edmonton that they mutually terminate his contract on July 1
Eyeball the length, cut it wrong
Throw the board into the maybe pile & grab a new one
Oilers drafting model
Huh. Maybe Spooner/Gagner was a preview for Lucic/Eriksson.
The buyout is marginally less shitty.
Would rather try the half-retained + sweetener move.
Parsing Stauffer today on OilersNow
I’m guessing it’s down to McCrimmon or Hunter
FWIW
Lawton was given Hunter, McCrimmon, Verbeek, Mahoney and asked his thoughts on each. He said out of all those he’d choose McCrimmon then Hunter. Said that Verbeek (who he played with) may have a tough time with his first GM role. Mahoney – questioned how close to the action/top he’s been as he’s never lived in Washington.
Oh and he said Burke would be similar to Verbeek. They would need support – tough time in first gig.
Bob said that Burke would be more of a consideration in a lesser role.
So… two rabbit’s feet then. Got it.
One less year. Better boxcars (for what that is worth). Can send him to the minors and he has a 15 team NTC starting 2020-21 (which is better than Lucic). Better buy-out (especially in 2021).
Kind of like crab-walking a 1500m race, may take a while but still better than not moving at all.
How about Lucic, with 2 million retained, plus Jones for Sutter?
I don’t mean to be negative, and I know Samorukov had a great run in the 2nd half. But are there any examples of guys who topped out at 0.76 PPG in the CHL in draft +2 that went on to be 1/2D in the NHL? There must be a couple, but I can’t imagine there’s more than a handful.
Perfect analogy.
I don’t think you’re being negative.
When you consider the sheer number of prospects that have been drafted, I would say only a handful have ever become top pairing D
Every time I post about this I preface it with a statement among the lines that he’s unlikely to actually reach is full potential and be 1D and also with the fact that Bouchard’s offensive ceiling is higher than Samorukov’s. A d-man doesn’t need to put up 60 plus points to be a true #1 in any event and I’m merely speaking about how Samorukov has a wider range of skills at this point than Bouchard – he’s an all-tools guy. He is a very good defensive first guy who is an aggressive defender and an excellent skater – this is to go along with his puck moving and offence. Samorukov isn’t an offense first guy but yet his offence is now starting to spike.
Game 1 of the OHL Championship series starts tonight.
Guelph is up against the powerhouse team from Ottawa and they cannot afford to get down by multiple games like they did against London and Saginaw.
Samorukov’s defensive abilities will be a key to this series for Guelph.
Yes, you’ve been very clear that it’s not your EXPECTATION that he actually becomes a 1D. I was just wondering just how rare it is for someone with Samorukov’s offence in junior to develop into a top pairing defensemen. I don’t have an answer to that yet (and not actually expecting you to provide one). Recent arrows on Samorukov are great, to be sure.
This player will become a top pairing D. I will guarantee it. Bold, I know, but have been on this train since I saw that one transition play fron D to offensive zone a while back.
For The Athletic: Should Oilers practice more patiences in adding Evan Bouchard to the roster?
https://theathletic.com/955608/2019/05/02/should-oilers-practice-more-patience-in-adding-evan-bouchard-to-the-roster/
Unless Bouchard is able to earn not-sheltered minutes during the Condors’ playoff run and play a good stretch of games with such un-sheltered minutes and essentially blow the doors off the AHL then, yes, absolutely, Bouchard should start in the AHL next year.
There is nothing he can do during training camp and the exhibition season to show that he is NHL ready. We’ve seen examples year after year after year where great exhibition performances throughout the preseason by young high skilled prospects mean absolutely nothing as far as NHL readiness – Yamamoto, Puljujarvi, Bouchard, McLeod, etc.
A plus AHL performance will mean much more than anything Bouchard can do during training camp – I actually expect him to be close to a PPG during camp and look like one of the top 4 d-men – will not mean anything as far as NHL readiness.
Further, because we just won’t know if he is NHL ready (subject to information during the AHL playoff run), they must be risk-adverse with this prospect. There is zero risk in starting him in the AHL and there is risk of starting him in the NHL. Its not like the Oilers don’t have options for where Bouchard would play if he did make the team – the likes of Jones, Persson and Bear, all players that have at least two years of pro experience and are playing well in their pro leagues. Lagesson too if they would shift Sekera to 3RD is an option.
Be risk adverse – start him in the AHL, let him play real top 4 minutes for 40 games. If he’s blowing the doors off the AHL then he becomes and option.
Going back to 97-98 season up to last year (21 years) these are the OHL turned NHL players (I think they all played over 200 NHL games) who scored lower or near .67 in their draft +2 (19 year old) season.
Bryan Allen .67
Matt Carkner .30
Kurtis Foster .41
Mark Giordano .71
Shane O’Brien .68
Kyle Wellwood .06
Dan Girardi .69
Paul Ranger .69
Brian Lee .59
Paul Bissonnette .32
Marc Methot .24
Marc Staal .64
Matt Pelech .60
Adam McQuaid .48
Robert Bortuzzo .74
Jake Muzzin .47
Ben Chiarot .58
Connor Murphy .55
Erik Cermak .42
About 1 per year from the OHL. So, it’s possible but still rare and some very good players are on the this list along with some fringe 6-7D. I’d consider 4 of these guys to pair (Giordano, Methot, Muzzin, and Girardi) at one point in their career and maybe not all of them in the new faster, more skilled NHL. Giordano’s on there so, who knows, maybe Samurokov will be a Norris candidate in 16 years for the 2034-2035 season.
1. Turcotte
2. Hunter
3. Hunter
4. Bouchard Benson Jones
5. Oilers
6. Toronto
7. Russell
8. JP and Nurse to Toronto for Nylander and a 3rd
9. Varlamov
10. Koskinen is the backup and Varlamov is the starter or 1a or 1b
11. No one sails on.. it’s not katz’s way of doing things..
Thanks for that. I was browsing players (much less efficiently than you) after posting and noticed Giordano had similar numbers. I certainly wasn’t intending to suggest Samorukov can’t make it from where he is now, just that the odds are long that he’ll be an impact player. I think your list backs that up, and actually suggests that Samorukov making the NHL in any capacity would be a win despite the recent good arrows.