The WHL is something close to home base for the Edmonton Oilers, the team’s devotion to its backyard league is detailed here. The organization skipped ‘the dub’ last season, spending precious resources instead in the OHL, QMJHL, Finnish Jr and schools in the New Hampshire townships. The way this year’s draft is setting up, it’s a good bet we’ll see at least one pick from the WHL in 2019. Photo by Rob Ferguson.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group.INSANE NEW OFFER IS HERE!
- New Jonathan Willis: Is Ken Holland yesterday’s man or the ideal GM candidate for the Oilers?
- New Lowetide: Jesse Puljujarvi and his uncertain future with the Oilers
- New Lowetide: ‘I see something special’: Are Oilers prepared to make Caleb Jones a fixture on the roster next season?
- New Jonathan Willis: Gritty comeback performance sends Edmonton’s farm team to the second round of the AHL playoffs.
- New Lowetide: Dylan Cozens might be ideal fit for Oilers at No. 8 overall in the 2019 draft
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Hard to please, but easy to work for’: How Sean Burke’s philosophy as a GM would benefit the Oilers.
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: A dogged realist, Kelly McCrimmon’s resume makes him an attractive candidate for the Oilers GM job
- New Lowetide: Is this the season the Oilers take the plunge and draft a USHL player in the first round?
- Jonathan Willis: Top Oilers prospect Evan Bouchard stars in his first AHL game as Condors dominate.
- Lowetide: Adam Larsson’s importance to the Oilers and why trading him is a bad idea.
- Lowetide: Tyler Benson’s comparables offer Oilers fans plenty of hope for the future.
- Lowetide: Making the call on the Oilers’ RFAs with a new general manager on the way.
- Lowetide: Red Wings front office shuffle could impact Oilers’ future.
- Jonathan Willis: Potential coaching candidates and why the Oilers don’t need to rush the GM search to get one
- Lowetide: What would Glen Sather do with these Oilers?
- Jonathan Willis: Some creative solutions to address the Oilers’ goalie problem
- Lowetide: The Milan Lucic saga rolls into Year 4 for Oilers with no easy answers
- Jonathan Willis: Who stays and who goes? An early projection of which players will remain on the Oilers’ roster in 2019-20
- Lowetide: How high can these Condors fly?
- Lowetide: The Oilers possible summer trade pieces, and which longtime players might be saying goodbye.
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ten prospects likely to be available when the Oilers make their first-round pick
WHL’S BEST, 2019
- Bowen Byram, LHD, Vancouver Giants. 67, 26-45-71 (1.06)
- Kirby Dach, RHC, Saskatoon Blades. 62, 25-48-73 (1.18)
- Dylan Cozens, RHC, Lethbridge Hurricanes. 68, 34-50-84 (1.24)
- Peyton Krebs, LW, Kootenay Ice. 64, 19-49-68 (1.06)
- Matthew Robertson, LHD, Edmonton Oil Kings. 52, 7-26-33 (0.63)
- Brett Leason, RW, Prince Albert Raiders. 55, 36-53-89 (1.62) (OA)
- Brayden Tracey, LW, Moose Jaw Warriors. 66, 36-45-81 (1.23)
- Lassi Thomson, RHD, Kelowna Rockets. 63, 17-24-41 (0.65)
- Mads Sogaard, G Medicine Hat Tigers. 37, 2.64 .921
- Nolan Foote, LW, Kelowna Rockets. 66, 36-27-63 (0.95)
- Luka Burzan LHC, Brandon Wheat Kings. 68, 40-38-78 (1.15) (OA)
- Adam Beckman, LW, Spokane Chiefs. 68, 32-30-62 (0.91)
- Kaedan Korczak, RD, Kelowna Rockets. 68, 4-29-33 (0.49)
- Dillon Hamaliuk, LW, Seattle Thunderbirds. 31, 11-15-26 (.84)
- Oleg Zaitsev, LHC, Red Deer Rebels. 66, 13-30-54 (0.65)
- Trent Miner, G, Vancouver Giants. 32, 1.98 .924.
- Alexei Protas, LC, Prince Albert Raiders. 61, 11-29-40 (0.66)
- Gianni Fairbrother, LHD, Everett Silvertips. 64, 10-26-36 (0.56)
- Sasha Mutala, RW, Tri-City Americans. 65, 20-21-41 (0.63)
- Reece Newkirk, LHC, Portland Winterhawks. 68, 23-36-59 (0.87)
- Josh Williams, RW, Edmonton Oil Kings. 66, 14-19-33 (0.50)
- Quinn Schmiemann, LHD, Kamloops Blazers. 58, 5-23-28 (0.48)
- Dustin Wolf, Everett Silvertips. 61, 1.69 .936
- Martin Lang, RW, Kamloops Blazers. 65, 11-22-33 (0.51)
- Luke Toporowski, LHC, Spokane Chiefs. 67, 21-28-49 (0.73)
- Ben McCartney, LW, Brandon Wheat Kings. 67, 21-20-41 (0.61)
- Vladimir Alistrov, LW, Edmonton Oil Kings. 62, 12-26-38 (0.61)
- Henry Rybinski, RW, Seattle Thunderbirds. 33, 7-28-35 (1.06)
- Mark Kastelic, RHC, Calgary Hitmen. 66, 47-30-77 (1.17) (OA)
- Cole Moberg, RHD, Prince George Cougars. 61, 13-27-40 (0.66) (OA)
- Jackson van de Leest, LHD, Calgary Hitmen. 67, 1-20-21 (0.31)
- Krystof Hrabik, LHC, Tri-City Americans. 63, 21-30-51 (0.81) (OA)
- Jake Lee, LHD, Seattle Thunderbirds. 67, 3-21-24 (0.36)
This is my WHL list. I have two players that still have me wondering. Brett Leason is an overager, not sure if my ranking is too high. He’s a famous older prospect, and that helps him no doubt. That said, he’s also talented. The other player is Brayden Tracey, who played on a line that zoomed him. I haven’t decided on those two men yet, the rest are fairly set.
ELLIOTTE FRIEDMAN
Yesterday, people were still wondering what Rod Pedersen was talking about, but now Holland is part of a trio at the top along with Mark Hunter and Kelly McCrimmon. The wording around McCrimmon’s availability is vague, so his inclusion might be overstating. Please click on Mr. Friedman’s link here.
Gathering up all of the wayward bits and pieces I have heard and read, I think we have one of those elementary school math questions that is really two questions in one (a train leaves Edmonton averaging x miles an hour..).
It sounds like the job belongs to Ken Holland if he wants it. I imagine the Oilers would make efforts to retain Keith Gretzky and have him working alongside the same way as Holland did with Jim Devellano in the 1990’s. Holland trumps all. Jon’s article from yesterday (link above) is an excellent assessment of Holland.
Next up is Kelly McCrimmon, who apparently isn’t free to take the job. The wording by Mr. Friedman has the look of parsing, so one imagines the two sides are a little way down the road, perhaps to the point where Vegas may have to elevate McCrimmon to keep him. As in the case of Holland, Edmonton doesn’t control the story.
As for autonomy, it’s easily promised but the Oilers themselves may not have a firm grasp on the request. The organization is so set in its ways McCrimmon may be talking about a world the Oilers don’t understand. Edmonton is still in the days of receiving your phone messages by picking up a bunch of pink message slips after a two-hour lunch. It’s 1975. Analytics is available to them, but they need someone who can explain it, and more importantly, someone they respect enough to listen and learn from, applying it in real time.
Mark Hunter appears to be the first man on the list who is available and has both met the standards and wants the opportunity. I read somewhere Nicholson wanted to wrap this up in the next week to 10 days, that benefits Hunter more than anyone. Sean Burke may also be idling in the driveway.
THE 2014 DRAFT
Around these parts, once the draft slot was known, the mantra was “stay idle for Draisaitl” and Craig MacTavish delivered. That accomplishment sometimes gets obscured by other events but Edmonton won a major victory over the other lottery teams that day.
MacT mentioned analytics on draft weekend, specifically the idea of dealing down for basically equal talent. Although I have written thousands of words about Anton Slepyshev, William Carrier and Valentin Zykov, I don’t think it hurt the Oilers to make those trades. Sometimes good risks have less than ideal outcomes, doesn’t mean they were bad risks after the fact.
2014 NHLE’s
- Sam Bennett (OHL) 16-23-39
- Robby Fabri (OHL) 19-18-37
- Sam Reinhart (WHL) 13-24-37
- Nikolaj Ehlers (QMJHL) 17-18-35
- Michael Dal Colle (OHL) 14-21-35
- Leon Draisaitl (WHL) 13-22-35
- Nick Ritchie (OHL) 16-14-30
- Ivan Barbashev (QMJHL) 11-19-30
- Brendan Perlini (OHL) 14-16-30
- Jake Virtanen (WHL) 14-7-21
2014 Bruce McCurdy on Leon Draisaitl: The big centre (listed as 6’1, 209) was neither overly physically aggressive nor a speedster, but largely impressed this observer with his overall command of the game. The play went through his stick constantly, and for the most part, good or at least promising things developed thereafter. He showed a couple of bursts of what I would term “situational speed” but his A game is clearly one of controlling the play rather than pushing it. As I said to my voice recorder at one point, “When the puck is on Draisaitl’s stick, he owns it. Even if there’s a guy in his kitchen he’s in full control.” And later, “Very calm with the puck on his stick, not quite nonchalant but knows how much time he’s got, which in this league is a lot. Big and strong and can dangle the puck out of reach of the man who’s on him, pick his spot and distribute… A lot of subtle stuff, some little mistakes at the end of shifts, but with the puck on his stick he makes a lot of good decisions.”
I have been hard on the rest of the 2014 draft (beyond Leon), but William Lagesson might just save the entire endeavor. Edmonton can’t bitch no matter, Draisaitl alone is plenty for one draft. Lagesson has the look of a player who will spend some time in the NHL. Will it be 100 games? 250? 500?
Edmonton also received a trade tree by dealing Liam Coughlin to Chicago for the rights to Anders Nilsson. Graham McPhee is the current asset on the tree. Perhaps they’ll trade him to Vegas for McCrimmon. Tyler Vesel also remains in the system from the 2014 draft.
ERIC RODGERS GOALIE STATS
Eric passed along a fascinating view of AHL goalies, Starrett clearly the best option and the two freshman have miles to go. There is separation between Wells and Skinner for sure. If Starrett gets some NHL games next season, could he be consistently good?
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
A busy morning with three fun guests. It all gets started at 10, with our friend Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal dropping in around 10:20. We’ll chat about the GM possibilities and about Leon in his draft year. Gabe Lacques from USA Today will chat about the Jays and the rotation, plus the BoSox and their challenging start. Jon Campbell from OddsShark will chime in on the Kentucky Derby, NBA and NHL playoffs. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
Thanks for that. I was browsing players (much less efficiently than you) after posting and noticed Giordano had similar numbers. I certainly wasn’t intending to suggest Samorukov can’t make it from where he is now, just that the odds are long that he’ll be an impact player. I think your list backs that up, and actually suggests that Samorukov making the NHL in any capacity would be a win despite the recent good arrows.
1. Turcotte
2. Hunter
3. Hunter
4. Bouchard Benson Jones
5. Oilers
6. Toronto
7. Russell
8. JP and Nurse to Toronto for Nylander and a 3rd
9. Varlamov
10. Koskinen is the backup and Varlamov is the starter or 1a or 1b
11. No one sails on.. it’s not katz’s way of doing things..
Going back to 97-98 season up to last year (21 years) these are the OHL turned NHL players (I think they all played over 200 NHL games) who scored lower or near .67 in their draft +2 (19 year old) season.
Bryan Allen .67
Matt Carkner .30
Kurtis Foster .41
Mark Giordano .71
Shane O’Brien .68
Kyle Wellwood .06
Dan Girardi .69
Paul Ranger .69
Brian Lee .59
Paul Bissonnette .32
Marc Methot .24
Marc Staal .64
Matt Pelech .60
Adam McQuaid .48
Robert Bortuzzo .74
Jake Muzzin .47
Ben Chiarot .58
Connor Murphy .55
Erik Cermak .42
About 1 per year from the OHL. So, it’s possible but still rare and some very good players are on the this list along with some fringe 6-7D. I’d consider 4 of these guys to pair (Giordano, Methot, Muzzin, and Girardi) at one point in their career and maybe not all of them in the new faster, more skilled NHL. Giordano’s on there so, who knows, maybe Samurokov will be a Norris candidate in 16 years for the 2034-2035 season.
Unless Bouchard is able to earn not-sheltered minutes during the Condors’ playoff run and play a good stretch of games with such un-sheltered minutes and essentially blow the doors off the AHL then, yes, absolutely, Bouchard should start in the AHL next year.
There is nothing he can do during training camp and the exhibition season to show that he is NHL ready. We’ve seen examples year after year after year where great exhibition performances throughout the preseason by young high skilled prospects mean absolutely nothing as far as NHL readiness – Yamamoto, Puljujarvi, Bouchard, McLeod, etc.
A plus AHL performance will mean much more than anything Bouchard can do during training camp – I actually expect him to be close to a PPG during camp and look like one of the top 4 d-men – will not mean anything as far as NHL readiness.
Further, because we just won’t know if he is NHL ready (subject to information during the AHL playoff run), they must be risk-adverse with this prospect. There is zero risk in starting him in the AHL and there is risk of starting him in the NHL. Its not like the Oilers don’t have options for where Bouchard would play if he did make the team – the likes of Jones, Persson and Bear, all players that have at least two years of pro experience and are playing well in their pro leagues. Lagesson too if they would shift Sekera to 3RD is an option.
Be risk adverse – start him in the AHL, let him play real top 4 minutes for 40 games. If he’s blowing the doors off the AHL then he becomes and option.
For The Athletic: Should Oilers practice more patiences in adding Evan Bouchard to the roster?
https://theathletic.com/955608/2019/05/02/should-oilers-practice-more-patience-in-adding-evan-bouchard-to-the-roster/
This player will become a top pairing D. I will guarantee it. Bold, I know, but have been on this train since I saw that one transition play fron D to offensive zone a while back.
Yes, you’ve been very clear that it’s not your EXPECTATION that he actually becomes a 1D. I was just wondering just how rare it is for someone with Samorukov’s offence in junior to develop into a top pairing defensemen. I don’t have an answer to that yet (and not actually expecting you to provide one). Recent arrows on Samorukov are great, to be sure.
Game 1 of the OHL Championship series starts tonight.
Guelph is up against the powerhouse team from Ottawa and they cannot afford to get down by multiple games like they did against London and Saginaw.
Samorukov’s defensive abilities will be a key to this series for Guelph.
Every time I post about this I preface it with a statement among the lines that he’s unlikely to actually reach is full potential and be 1D and also with the fact that Bouchard’s offensive ceiling is higher than Samorukov’s. A d-man doesn’t need to put up 60 plus points to be a true #1 in any event and I’m merely speaking about how Samorukov has a wider range of skills at this point than Bouchard – he’s an all-tools guy. He is a very good defensive first guy who is an aggressive defender and an excellent skater – this is to go along with his puck moving and offence. Samorukov isn’t an offense first guy but yet his offence is now starting to spike.
I don’t think you’re being negative.
When you consider the sheer number of prospects that have been drafted, I would say only a handful have ever become top pairing D
Perfect analogy.
I don’t mean to be negative, and I know Samorukov had a great run in the 2nd half. But are there any examples of guys who topped out at 0.76 PPG in the CHL in draft +2 that went on to be 1/2D in the NHL? There must be a couple, but I can’t imagine there’s more than a handful.
How about Lucic, with 2 million retained, plus Jones for Sutter?
One less year. Better boxcars (for what that is worth). Can send him to the minors and he has a 15 team NTC starting 2020-21 (which is better than Lucic). Better buy-out (especially in 2021).
Kind of like crab-walking a 1500m race, may take a while but still better than not moving at all.
So… two rabbit’s feet then. Got it.
Parsing Stauffer today on OilersNow
I’m guessing it’s down to McCrimmon or Hunter
FWIW
Lawton was given Hunter, McCrimmon, Verbeek, Mahoney and asked his thoughts on each. He said out of all those he’d choose McCrimmon then Hunter. Said that Verbeek (who he played with) may have a tough time with his first GM role. Mahoney – questioned how close to the action/top he’s been as he’s never lived in Washington.
Oh and he said Burke would be similar to Verbeek. They would need support – tough time in first gig.
Bob said that Burke would be more of a consideration in a lesser role.
Huh. Maybe Spooner/Gagner was a preview for Lucic/Eriksson.
The buyout is marginally less shitty.
Would rather try the half-retained + sweetener move.
Eyeball the length, cut it wrong
Throw the board into the maybe pile & grab a new one
Oilers drafting model
OriginalPouzar,
Well you shorten the pain by a year. Maybe you can then add something small to flip him for Darling and shave another year and have a guy easier to buyout
It’s not going to be easy or painless to get rid of Lucic
Hope he gets so sick of Edmonton that they mutually terminate his contract on July 1
Look, do you want a solution or a distraction?
I was going to add that the contract likely has a better buyout structure but it doesn’t – its awful as well with a $5.5M cap hit the first two years.
One additional thing is that it doesn’t have a NMC so he isn’t a must-protect.
I would assume that Lucic would waive his NMC to allow us to expose him in the expansion draft but am unsure if that is permitted – obviously Seattle would never take him.
Been hearing for 2 years how good Hurricanes numbers are and perplexity as to why they’re not getting better results. Well, sooner or later a stopped clock will be right. Or goaltending. Good for them, Brind’amour and Williams may get to relive 2006 yet.
– Wow! Is there a way to look at all these old posts? So cool
Watching the Blues and Stars.
Does anyone know what’s more annoying than listening to Pierre McGuire?
I think it’s listening to the female version of him. And then having to listen to both of them compete with each other to prove to us how smart they are.
I had to turn the sound off.
You expect to get relief from trading Lucic? You will get no relief.
Maybe less pain, and that is what Erickson is
His contract is one year shorter, that’s a big deal
He did score 10 goals at least
We don’t get rid of Lucic without taking something ugly back
Hope that ugly has shorter contract than longer
Although i despise them, it would be funny for the Hurricanes to have more cups than Calgary and Vancouver combined.
50 years of tears!
Kinger_Oil.redux,
1. Pick traded in a bad deal or Krebs
2. Hunter
3. Hitchcock
4. Benson, Gamb, Jones, Bouch
5. Oilers but hopefully Van
6. Oilers because of the injury
7. All stay
8. 2, Lucic for Kovalchuk,
9. Elliot but more likely a different goalie.
10. The new goalie
11. Sather by means of a large boat.
Francois Gagnon
Verified account
@GagnonFrancois
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Edmonton #Oilers asked and obtained permission to discuss with #Habs assistant GM Scott Mellandy in there quest to find a new GM in replacement of Peter Chiarelli fired last january
I didn’t either and have an MSc and have taught lots of University courses.
I don’t think Lucic’s NMC is much of an impediment to any trade. The $6M X 4 is the impediment to a trade.
I fail to see how one deadweight $6 million contract replacing another deadweigt $6 million contract moves the needle for cap relief.
Why doesn’t the hockey combine testing include a variety of timed skating drills that would enable skating analytics coming onto the draft. It blows my mind. Without shrooms.
defmn,
Man your words are wise beyond anything I can explain.
I’ve divided this world into people who spend their time studying how to make the right decision
People who spend their time living with whatever comes
And folks who try to balance both well.
The Oilers don’t fit any of my paradigms
SAD
There can’t be a set in stone system. There are too many variables which is shown in draft position success which a few folks have put numbers to.
Which leads to drafting what is the most valuable- skill. Draft skill and potential and fill the NHL team bottom half of the roster with readily available cheap signings and trades or prospects that don’t progress to top half players.
Love to see a splash of Covered in Oil clip-art on here, too.
Defensemen have a larger impact on the game than forwards other than elite forwards, which Ehlers is not, because they play more and a harder position. So the Jets win that trade.
See Tampa looking awful because IMO Hedman was hurt and out. Suddenly rock solid Vas looked shaky.
Where the oilers lack on D is right side, the hardest to fill. Benning struggles above 3rd pair. All of the hopefuls are best suited at 3rd pair. Larsson is serviceable at 1rd with a strong partner but doesn’t use the skill he has either by choice or team direction.
Finding a partner for Nurse would change everything. I think he would take a step with a player he could pass to and trust to stand ground. His weakness is doing too much and his natural game is to use his physical advantage it leads to him running around. I think he’d settle more with proper help.
Look for untapped players or cap dumps and use lesser assets to get the right side shored up. I think overall offensive would improve and GA would go down. And Koski would be better.
A top 6 winger would be nice but again buy low, use prospects and a non first, look for undervalued or a cap dump
The darker blue background in this article’s body is veeerrryy close to the old blue text background.
The lighter blue in the top header on the old blog was hex code #0066CC.
https://web.archive.org/web/20070716144528/http://lowetide.blogspot.com/
Justin Faulk just shingled Lehner’s roof…
Does it trike anyone as unusual that a prospective GM had to make it clear that he wants “full autonomy”?
I want lowetide.blogspot.com light blue.
OriginalPouzar,
Isn’t Spector on record stating Lucic asked for a trade last summer?
If that’s true, and I expect it is, I can’t see him rejecting a trade to anywhere that isn’t deplorable (to him).
___________
As an aside… it somewhat surprises me how athletes view themselves. I know they had to have had a lot of belief in themselves to have the kind of career Lucic has had. And I’m sure he wants a second opinion (ie an opportunity elsewhere), but they often seem to think they’ve still got it, despite lots of evidence to the contrary.
This should be nailed to the front door at EDM’s offices and everyone needs to read it before entering.
We would also accept “not enough NHL players”
~ measure once cut twice ~
I mean any field should have best practices. Is this a thing that the Oilers even have heard of?
Sure, might mean you occasionally don’t follow them because they are “best” practices and we are fallible, lazy, judgmental human beings, but even to work through the best practices requires a certain level of understanding of one’s field.
Of course I immediately go to
NEVER HAD TO KNOCK ON WOOD BUT I KNOW SOMEONE WHO HAS
Hence the reason why he will be off the board by the time the Oilers pick
To me an analytics department is less necessary in picking first round draftees. Where it’s critical is with discovering value in later picks and especially pro undervalued players.
Unless you have an enormous scouting staff there is too much to look at. The entire world is being scouted now. The days of the Detroit model which was based on finding talent in unexploited leagues is a thing of the past.
Analytics can find players and scouts can then be directed to look closely at them. Drafting first round now almost needs no resources, just read Bob’s and Al’s pieces, it’s all there.
Jethro Tull,
Haha!
My heart skipped a beat until I read the quoted comment again.
This is why scouts will always be important.
There are factors that contribute to future success which are tough to glean from on ice results.
Some of that is baked into on ice results, but QoT can overwhelm them.
A prof who doesn’t read the instructions and assumes whatever they do is correct.
🙂