Signs

When I was young, there was a song by a group called the Five Man Electrical Band called Signs. Whenever I hear it, and it shows up more often than you think, it instantly takes me back to 1971. In 1971, hair had elevated importance. Don’t ask me why, but it did. In my house, it was a major issue, as my brother wanted to grow his hair long and my Dad felt it was a sign of the (gasp) generation gap and a lack of respect. It was the single biggest reason for my brother leaving the house at 16. Hair. The point: Sometimes even the adults make poor decisions. In 1971? Made zero sense. None at all. Now that I’m older, it still makes zero sense. None at all.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group.INSANE NEW OFFER IS HERE!

  • New Lowetide: An offseason plan for Ken Holland to remodel the Oilers roster.
  • New Jonathan Willis: Which Condors made a good first impression on Oilers GM Ken Holland?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland steadfast that buck stops with him as new Oilers GM.
  • Eric Duhatschek: Why any talk of Ken Holland being yesterday’s man should be put to rest.
  • Lowetide: How will Ken Holland proceed in Year 1 as Oilers general manager?
  • Jonathan Willis: What does the arrival of Ken Holland mean for the Oilers coaching search?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Prioritizing the roster issues that await Ken Holland in Edmonton.
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s Bakersfield production line: Elevating Jones and how long will success take?
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s procurement list for his rumored move to Edmonton will include front-office personnel
  • Jonathan Willis: A Milan Lucic trade is at the top of the to-do list for the Oilers’ next GM.
  • Lowetide: Should Oilers practice more patience in adding Evan Bouchard to the roster?
  • Jonathan Willis: Is Ken Holland yesterday’s man or the ideal GM candidate for the Oilers?
  • Lowetide: Jesse Puljujarvi and his uncertain future with the Oilers
  • Lowetide: ‘I see something special’: Are Oilers prepared to make Caleb Jones a fixture on the roster next season?
  • Jonathan Willis: Gritty comeback performance sends Edmonton’s farm team to the second round of the AHL playoffs.
  • Lowetide: Dylan Cozens might be ideal fit for Oilers at No. 8 overall in the 2019 draft
  • New Lowetide: Is this the season the Oilers take the plunge and draft a USHL player in the first round?
  • Lowetide: Red Wings front office shuffle could impact Oilers’ future.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ten prospects likely to be available when the Oilers make their first-round pick

50-MAN LIST

Today we’re going to Hollandaise the roster. We know the new general manager has as a priority: A free-agent goalie, secondary scoring up front and more good players. Let’s begin with the rfa’s.

1 LW Tobias Rieder. He went 67, 0-11-11 as an Oilers forward and wasn’t a gigantic help on the PK. As much as it would be fun to see Bob Nicholson’s reaction, Rieder won’t be signed.

2 Jujhar Khaira. He was 60, 3-15-18 and posted some interesting numbers against Elite competition (via Puck IQ). A no-brainer to re-sign, although his trade value might mean he’s down the line in a trade.

3 Joe Gambardella. He went 15, 0-3-3 in Edmonton and had a strong year in Bakersfield. His huge night in front of Holland last night is good news, but one suspects he was going to be signed anyway.

4 Tyler Vesel. He scored 61, 5-13-18 in Bakersfield and that’s not a lot of offense for a player who just turned 25. Vesel is a solid checking forward in the AHL, but I think his chances of staying are below 50 percent.

5 Colin Larkin. He went 46, 2-12-14 in the ECHL, and at 25 he’s not close enough to the NHL to close the gap in time.

6 Jesse Puljujarvi. He posted 46, 4-5-9 with Edmonton and Holland’s hiring might be his last chance Texaco with the Oilers. I trust the new general manager will keep him unless the offer to trade is significant.

7 Ty Rattie. He was 50, 4-7-11 this past season, disappointing run and that may spell the end with the organization. However, his 5-on-5 points per 60 in the two Edmonton seasons (1.52) suggests he might be useful as an end of the roster option.

8 Robin Norell. Part of the Brandon Manning trade, he won’t be signed. I’m also assuming Ryan Mantha’s contract will end.

9 Shane Starrett. I think he’s a lock to get another contract. That said, remember that new GM’s have players in mind for the roster. That puts the roster at 39:

Next up we’re going to discuss roster players who could potentially be bought out or dealt by Holland.

1 Milan Lucic. He went 79, 6-14-20 last season and each season that passes features career lows in boxcars. Based on his own words I think ML may be ready to move on. Vancouver?

2 Kyle Brodziak. 70, 6-3-9 last season but his slow boots will probably see him play in Bakersfield next year. Damn shame, one of my favourites.

3 Sam Gagner. A buyout saves $2 million and that puts him in the ‘possible’ pile. However, his 5-on-5 per 60 scoring in Edmonton last year (1.74) put him No. 4 (behind the big three). Could Holland sign a better play in free agency for around $2 million?

4 Andrej Sekera. Posted 24, 0-4-4 after coming back, he wasn’t 100 percent but did show veteran savvy during those 24 games. The cap savings for the next two seasons on a buyout ($3 million) is substantial.

What a night for the Condors! A massive comeback, capped by a William Lagesson overtime winner, have Bakersfield back in the series. Joe Gambardella (3-2-5, +4) had the biggest impact on the game, he and Brad Malone (1-3-4, +4) are crushing opponents this spring.

Prospects who had success include Tyler Benson (1-2-3), Caleb Jones (0-1-1 with steady play and good boots), William Lagesson (scored the winner) and Ethan Bear (now has goals in two consecutive games). Jon’s story (link above) offers a complete overview of a great game and a promising group of prospects.

I think Jones will be on the team in the fall, suspect it’ll be LH side but it’s an option for RH, too. As for the roll call, I think it’s unwise to read too much into who is and isn’t on these flights. Having all hands on deck through the draft and into free agency makes sense unless Holland is allowed to bring his own trusted people from Detroit right away. I don’t imagine that is the case. More likely we see a summer shuffle, or slam, depending on how many names exit.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy morning as we gear up for the NHL semfinals. TSN1260, beginning at 10 this morning. We’ll welcome Frank Seravalli from TSN at 11, Michael Smith from the Carolina Hurricanes at 10:40 and Nick Sulsky from Monkey Knife Fight at 11:25. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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166 Responses to "Signs"

  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    Of note (and as Bruce has tweeted about), Bear left the game in his third after a collision holding his arm and Bruce said it looked like his shoulder and didn’t look good.

    Ugh – OP catastrophizing this in his mind to shoulder surgery and not 100% for camp and not being able to train fully this off-season. Of course, maybe he is back next game…..

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    We have Drai listed as a winger on the 50, on the premise that is where he has been playing lately even though he’s a natural center.

    On the same premise, should we list Jones as a RD as he’s played almost exclusively on the right side as a pro – even when called up last year, he started on the right side with Gravel (and moved to the left side when he was moved up the lineup – and where he struggled with the tougher minutes).

    Of course, it would likely be better for him to play in the league’s top league on his natural side but perhaps he is one of the few that don’t see a fall-off in their transition and overall game on their off side? I don’t know if he’s in that group or not.

  3. OriginalPouzar says:

    The RFAs are pretty easy.

    No-brainers to sign:

    – Puljujarvi – I would think both parties are looking at 1 year and, with a pedigree bump, this should come in around $1.25M (I could see it going as high as $1.5M) – no, he hasn’t earned that AAV, however, he’ll get the pedigree bump and its a great bet for a value deal. Would love to get him at 2 years at that AAV.

    – Khaira – no brainer re-sign and this should come in around $1.1M – I think, again, a one year or two year deal.

    – Joe G. – no brainer re-sign – under $1M but he gets a one-way deal (doesn’t really matter to us, only to Katz).

    – Starrett – no brainer re-sign under $1M.

    – I would like to bring Rieder back- no, not qualified at $2M, however at a lower number – of course, its not going to happen.

  4. OriginalPouzar says:

    Of coure Lucic is willing to move on. I don’t think his NMC is a huge factor in the inability to move him (maybe to a few potential destinations but I believe he’d waive for most).

    A buyout is a non-starter.

    A clean disposition by adding the 8th overall (or similar) is, to me, a non-starter.

    I could potentially get on board with retaining and adding a lesser but solid sweetener on the Bear level but I don’t like it.

    I like a creative type disposition – likey along the lines of a 3-team agreement (Lucic essentially waives to the ultimate destination) – Oilers trade to destination A and retain $3M – Destination A team trades to ultimate destination team and retains $1.5M.

    Destination A team gets a small sweetener from the Oilers – maybe a 4th round pick in exchange for a 6th round pick back.

    Ultimate team gets Lucic at $1.5M.

  5. OriginalPouzar says:

    Why isn’t Russell included in the assets out list? Isn’t he the primary disposition target?

    Brodz is easy – as you mention, buried.

    Gagner could likely provide close to value for $3M if he’s glued to the top 6 all year but we likely want to shoot at bit higher (quicker and younger) than Sam. Yaremchuk had a good thought on Gagner a while ago. Trade him to a team that will buy him out (i.e. Ottawa) with a small sweetener and then re-sign at a more nominal amount.

    A Sekera buyout makes no sense given he is a material player and, while potentially penciled in to the third pairing, will ultimately be required in the top 4 more often than not. I could get on board with a trade, however, he needs to play some more games prior to having the value he deserves in a trade. This player should be kept, in my opinion.

  6. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    We have Drai listed as a winger on the 50, on the premise that is where he has been playing lately even though he’s a natural center.

    I’m not sure how your list lines up, mine keeps Leon-McDavid together because we’re two coaches in and that seems to be the muster point. As for Jones, as he isn’t yet an NHL player, listing him on his natural side makes sense. If he moves over in 2019-20, in Edmonton, we can have the discussion.

  7. slopitch says:

    “The Bear roars in San Diego!” ha liked that line. Those highlights are interesting. Need to button up defensively and/or get better goaltending.

    Ken Holland, Bob Nicholson, Keith Gretzky and Craig MacTavish in San Diego. Telling for who sticks around?

  8. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Why isn’t Russell included in the assets out list?Isn’t he the primary disposition target?

    Again, your list may have different names, my list is as above. This morning i was looking at buyout/trade dumps, I don’t see Russell as that kind of asset.

  9. OriginalPouzar says:

    Its good that Keith Gretzky was with Holland at the game last night – we know that Holland would like to have him on the team (AGM? Head of Amateur Scouting? Moved to the Pro Scouting side?), however, we don’t know if Keith wants to stay. He likely does.

    Yes, MacT was there – he is currently on the management team and his main mandate is the Condors. I believe its unlikely he is given his walking papers and Oilers fans will need to accept that. Could be wrong.

  10. Lowetide says:

    slopitch:
    “The Bear roars in San Diego!” ha liked that line. Those highlights are interesting. Need to button up defensively and/or get better goaltending.

    Ken Holland, Bob Nicholson, Keith Gretzky and Craig MacTavish in San Diego. Telling for who sticks around?

    Or telling for who gets the first interviews.

  11. OriginalPouzar says:

    I wish I didn’t have mental problems and didn’t “need to” go to the gym at 2am so that I could actually stay up and watch the entire Condor games. I guess I could, I mean, I do it for the Oilers 8pm starts and still make it to the gym – I pay for the 2 hours sleep though later in the week.

    Maybe I’ll try and change the gym schedule for Saturday so I can watch the game in its entirety on Friday – seems unlikely….

  12. Nit64 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Bruce said it looked like his shoulder and didn’t look good.

    He’s a real Oiler now. 😉

  13. HugThePost says:

    Lowetide: Or telling for who gets the first interviews.

    In the past, I think Howson and 99 would be on these kinds of trips along with MacT?

  14. GBandQ says:

    LT, i LOVE “Hollandaise”. :p

    given today’s musical theme, i think any time “Hollandaise” is referenced on the blog, it should be sung to the tune of “Sunny Days” by Lighthouse.

    👍🏼

  15. russ99 says:

    Holland has no ties to Puljujarvi, and with the agent posturing, I suspect Holland won’t budge like our previous GMs did. Also a past similar situation with Athanasiou.

    Still think a year in Europe is the best option.

  16. russ99 says:

    Lowetide,

    MacTavish would already be there, we’re reading the tea leaves a bit too much.

  17. Rich M says:

    While it’s not the same, it was nice to see Benson with a dagger to the Gulls (Ducks) last night for all the times Anaheim has done that to us late in the game the last few years.

    Lagesson’s game winner just as nice.

  18. jtblack says:

    Nice to see the Condors get a HUGE win !!!

    Good write up LT …

    This spring has been the most uninteresting for me. Barely watched any hockey after Round 1.

    2 years ago when Edmonton was in it, Every 2nd night was sooooooooo Fun. Can’t wait for a return to the Playoffs.

  19. jtblack says:

    San Jose came into the playoffs with the worst combined SV% in the last 30 years. Yet they are off to Round 3. This game makes no sense sometimes.

  20. BONE207 says:

    Hair. The point: Sometimes even the adults make poor decisions. In 1971? Made zero sense

    LT…Funny that you pick hair as a personal tidbit today while showing a clean shaven Gambardella. It’s the first time I have seen his face without that shaggy dog. Oops, starting to sound like a parent…Ha

    Actually, I’ve been cheering against the sharks just so I wouldn’t have to see Brent Burns anymore.

  21. Andy Dufresne says:

    jtblack:
    San Jose came into the playoffs with the worst combined SV% in the last 30 years.Yet they are off to Round 3.This game makes no sense sometimes.

    IMO. Its another indication of just how much team defense matters to goalie performance. San Jose played loosey gooesy balls out offense in the regular season, then tightened things up once the playoffs started. ( Have the most blocked shots of any team in the postseason I think). Jones goes from second guessing himself and overplaying certain situations to playing with a high level of confidence.

    I think goalies should be evaluated almost entirely based on playoff performance, as most/every team in the playoffs buttons down the defense and gives the goalie his optimal operating environment. I think its why SO MANY goalies standout in the playoffs. Look at his year, Jones, Bishop, Grubauer, Rask, Binnington, Mrazek, McElhinney, Bobrovsky, Anderson (exception being game 7) etc……..ALL playing above their seasonal averages.

    P.S. The day (grade 8) my military father allowed me to grow my hair over my ears was a freakishly liberating/surreal day for me. I too had an older brother who left home at 17 in part due to the hair issue. In SO MANY ways my older brother bore the brunt of the oppresive load and broke new ground / cleared the path / lightened the load for me.

  22. ArmchairGM says:

    Another RFA unlikely to be qualified by his team: Andre Burakovsky. What does Oilerville think about signing him to a show me contract?

  23. Wilde says:

    Forwards

    [ Player – CF – CA / / +/- ]

    Benson – 27 – 11 / / +16
    McLeod – 22 – 11 / / +11
    Currie – 25 – 11 / / +14

    Gambardella – 27– 16 / / +11
    Malone – 29 – 17 / / +12
    Russell – 27 – 18 / / +9

    Polei – 10 – 16 / / -6
    Vesel – 12 – 10 / / +2
    Gust – 9 – 9 / / 0

    Esposito – 9 – 10 / / -1
    Callahan – 5 – 6 / / -1

    Defense

    Lagesson – 19 – 14 / / +5
    Jones – 22 – 14 / / +8

    Lowe – 31 – 8 / / +23
    Bear – 28 – 5 / / +23

    Stanton – 15 – 21 / / -6
    Day – 9 – 17 / / -8

    Bouchard – 11 – 11 / / 0

    Deployment notes-

    – 3RD was split between Bouchard and Day

    – C rotation was mostly a split of McLeod/Esposito between the Benson-Currie wingerset, but both centres also had time between Polei-Gust

    – Callahan rotated in at Gust’s spot mostly but also spotted in opposite Benson

    Game was refreshingly clean, but Bear went down late and didn’t return after he fell awkwardly beside – but not into – the end boards

    I’m up to date on the whole playoffs now (fucking overtimes) and I’m shipping some data off to Lowetide but if you have any questions about player’s on-ice or individual stats, ask them here and I’ll try to get to them all

  24. slopitch says:

    CF% from puckiq.com

    Sam Gagner (not many games)
    All – 51.5
    Elite – 43.7
    Middle – 57.3
    Grit – 52.7

    Brandon Sutter (only played 26 games but wasnt much better in 17/18)
    All – 41.5
    Elite – 41.9
    Middle – 41.9
    Grit – 40.2

    Milan Lucic
    All – 50.7
    Elite – 48.4
    Middle – 56.7
    Grit – 55.1

    Louie Eriksson
    All – 47.1
    Elite – 45.2
    Middle – 47.5
    Grit – 49.9

    Since buying out Lucic is non-starter (his damn contract) doesn’t keeping him in a 3rd line role make the most sense? Once you buy out Gagner, I’m not sure there is much room to upgrade. One a 1 year deal I don’t hate keeping him around. I’m not a fan of Sutter or Eriksson anymore.

    IMO, the play is to move Russell or Sekera for picks and then use the cap space on a goalie and 2-3 wingers. Holland needs to play hardball with JP or let him play in Europe a year. Is JP’s cap hit 3.4 mill? Let him play in Europe for a year and blossom. Use that cap space on a 1 year option and sign JP to a 1.75 2 year deal after this year. If they get value on these 2 wingers

    Drai-McD-Kassian
    Benson-Nuge-X
    Lucic-Cave-X
    Khaira-Marody-Gagner
    JG

    Klef-Larsson
    Nurse-Benning
    Sekera-Jones

    Koskinen
    X

    Kassian and Gagner can flip spots. RW still a mess. JP emerging as a real 2RW option would be a godsend. Need to upgrade Cave at 3C. Would Ebs return at 4×4? I doubt it. But a real RW is important. Chai didnt do enough there and with Sekera injury the team started off with not enough quality options in important positions.

  25. JimmyV1965 says:

    Maybe we can trade Lucic straight across for Wennberg. They both have four years left. Wennberg makes $4.9 so we could simply swap salaries. Stauffer suggested trading Lucic for Sutter and swapping salaries. I really like that idea. There must be a bunch of guys making $3 mill plus who we could trade with in a salary swap.

  26. Wilde says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Another RFA unlikely to be qualified by his team: Andre Burakovsky. What does Oilerville think about signing him to a show me contract?

    He’s high on my acq list

  27. pts2pndr says:

    Lowetide: listing him on his natural side makes sense. If he moves over in 2019-20, in Edmonton, we can

    I know that many posters rate Jones very highly. Jones is a plus skater but is not good one on one defending. Too small to move forwards from in front of the net and does not tie up the opponents stick in front of the net. Even with his skating ability he is an average passer therefore getting to the puck quickly isn’t the asset it could be. I see potential and with some third pairing sheltered experience however whose place does he take? Lagesson plays better defence and while not as good a skater is a better passer, more physical and has a harder more accurate shot. Jones gets the love and Lagesson is an after thought or trade throw in in most posters minds. What are your thoughts.

  28. slopitch says:

    Wilde,

    Awesome stuff. Are you manually counting these? Is it 5v5 only or includes 5v4?

    The Condors only out-shot the Gulls by 8 shots so Im wondering why the corsi numbers would be so much in favor of the Condors…

  29. OilersFuture says:

    I’m interested to see what happens with Joey G. I think he’s a good enough player to play an effective 4th line game in the NHL, with potential to play up a line. I know it’s unlikely to happen but I would like to see a 3-4 year deal with a contract under 900K. This is similar to what Chicago did with Bickell and Stahlberg back in 2010. I’d like for the team to start planning who their role players are get them signed to longer term deals but also contracts that can be buried.

    Starrett I wonder if they consider a deal structured similarly to the one Brossoit signed prior to the 2016-17 season. Where he had a one-way deal but was waiver eligible and the cap was able to be buried.

  30. who says:

    JimmyV1965:
    Maybe we can trade Lucic straight across for Wennberg. They both have four years left. Wennberg makes $4.9 so we could simply swap salaries. Stauffer suggested trading Lucic for Sutter and swapping salaries. I really like that idea. There must be a bunch of guys making $3 mill plus who we could trade with in a salary swap.

    Would love to see a Lucic for Sutter swap, with Edmonton retaining 2 million, but no way it happens.
    Sutter is a better player, only has 2 years left, and is MUCH easier to buy out.
    Why does Vancouver make that trade?

  31. BONE207 says:

    If I were the GM…

    Get rid of Lucic, Russell & Manning
    With the cap relief, get a defender, 2RD? & a winger or 2\
    IF I could unload Gagner & Brodziak, I would.
    Bring in a 4th line from Bakersfield. Marody (if he can speed up) Gambardella & Malone?
    Benson in the top 6 to see if he sticks
    Lagesson, Persson & Jones to compete for 3rd pairing with Sekera

    Of course I’d also have a cutting edge analytics dept & the winning 6 numbers in the next lotto max…

  32. Wilde says:

    pts2pndr: I know that many posters rate Jones very highly. Jones is a plus skater but is not good one on one defending. Too small to move forwards from in front of the net and does not tie up the opponents stick in front of the net. Even with his skating ability he is an average passer therefore getting to the puck quickly isn’t the asset it could be. I see potential and with some third pairing sheltered experience however whose place does he take? Lagesson plays better defence and while not as good a skater is a better passer, more physical and has a harder more accurate shot. Jones gets the love and Lagesson is an after thought or trade throw in in most posters minds. What are your thoughts.

    Hard disagree on Jones’s passing, and if he’s a poor defender it doesn’t show up in the results

  33. Primetime says:

    pts2pndr: I know that many posters rate Jones very highly. Jones is a plus skater but is not good one on one defending. Too small to move forwards from in front of the net and does not tie up the opponents stick in front of the net. Even with his skating ability he is an average passer therefore getting to the puck quickly isn’t the asset it could be. I see potential and with some third pairing sheltered experience however whose place does he take? Lagesson plays better defence and while not as good a skater is a better passer, more physical and has a harder more accurate shot. Jones gets the love and Lagesson is an after thought or trade throw in in most posters minds. What are your thoughts.

    I know that after Sekera finished his conditioning stint with Condors, he was effusive in his praise for Lagesson. I believe he said that he was NHL ready.

  34. Andy Dufresne says:

    Anyone noticing / questioning the performace of Erik Karlsson in these playoffs? I know he came into the playoffs injured (groin), and I know he has a history of sketchy defense, but I’m really noticing a lot of mishandling the puck, blown coverages, bad penalties, etc, combined with less than Karlsson like offensive performace.

    Makes me wonder how difficult its going to be for San Jose to resign him. Will they be willing to pay top dollar for an average to below average playoff performance. Will they just write that off to being hampered by injury??

    They gave up alot to get him, Chris Tierney and Rudolfs Balcers, defenseman Dylan DeMelo, the rights to unsigned forward Joshua Norris, a first-round pick in the 2019 NHL Draft or 2020 NHL Draft, a second-round pick in the 2019 draft, and two conditional draft picks.

    Wilson is pretty shrewd negotiator, should be interesting come July, Karlsson will be 29 to start the 2019-20 season.

  35. Andy Dufresne says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Another RFA unlikely to be qualified by his team: Andre Burakovsky. What does Oilerville think about signing him to a show me contract?

    Respectfully, what makes you think he is unlikley to be qualifed?

  36. Wilde says:

    slopitch:
    Wilde,

    Awesome stuff. Are you manually counting these? Is it 5v5 only or includes 5v4?

    The Condors only out-shot the Gulls by 8 shots so Im wondering why the corsi numbers would be so much in favor of the Condors…

    Yeah, this is manually tracked, and yes all the data I post is 5v5

    As for the second part, three things:

    1) Score effects favoured the Condors

    2) The shot counter is all situations and the Gulls got more PP time than the Condors

    3) Venue effects favoured the Gulls

  37. leeinvan says:

    I like Samorukon at D a few years down the road and Maksimov at F also in 2 years.
    Also I think everyone needs to be a bit more positive when it comes to d Men. Look at the so call super stars at this position. at least half this group are not great at defending.
    Everyone raves about Burns or Karlson , both of those players are there strictly for offence. Or Barrie at Colorado. There are plenty of top d men that play that riverboat gambling style that everyone ignores because of the offence. Yet when the Oilers have a D man that gets points we just want to talk about his weaknesses.
    This is where being on a team that the fans don’t expect perfection right out of the gate helps the young D men. Really think the fans have to expect less from very young D men and cheer more.

  38. Primetime says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Another RFA unlikely to be qualified by his team: Andre Burakovsky. What does Oilerville think about signing him to a show me contract?

    I don’t think there is anyway Washington loses this asset for nothing. Could easily trade him to another team willing to qualify him for draft picks or a younger promising player. I would love the Oil to do this…

  39. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    slopitch,

    – Re: Lucic: I agree. It would be great if they could trade him without giving stuff up, and he clearly wants to go. But he’s the strongest possession player on the team last year that played full-time: so untill you have better possession players, he plays on the team on merit (and too bad about how much it costs)

    – I can’t believe that a

    Lucic-RNH-Pool couldn’t be a saw off third line in terms of possesion, and playing styles

    – And if Jar-RNH-Pool is better, Lucic is on the 4rth, with still excellent possession numbers

    – Sure for $6MM that sucks, but giving up prospects when in a year you have expansion, or way better economics in terms of remaining salary, or possible CBA: I don’t see any realistic suggestion that makes sense or that another team takes.

  40. slopitch says:

    Wilde: Yeah, this is manually tracked, and yes all the data I post is 5v5

    As for the second part, three things:

    1) Score effects favoured the Condors

    2) The shot counter is all situations and the Gulls got more PP time than the Condors

    3) Venue effects favoured the Gulls

    Thanks Wilde! Just confirming basically what you said. The game seemed closer given the score and shots but venue effects probably bigger than normal. Powerplays were 4-2 for the Gulls. They must do a good job of getting the puck to the net on the PP.

  41. Tapdog says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Of coure Lucic is willing to move on.I don’t think his NMC is a huge factor in the inability to move him (maybe to a few potential destinations but I believe he’d waive for most).

    A buyout is a non-starter.

    A clean disposition by adding the 8th overall (or similar) is, to me, a non-starter.

    I could potentially get on board with retaining and adding a lesser but solid sweetener on the Bear level but I don’t like it.

    I like a creative type disposition – likey along the lines of a 3-team agreement (Lucic essentially waives to the ultimate destination) – Oilers trade to destination A and retain $3M – Destination A team trades to ultimate destination team and retains $1.5M.

    Destination A team gets a small sweetener from the Oilers – maybe a 4th round pick in exchange for a 6th round pick back.

    Ultimate team gets Lucic at $1.5M.

    OP is that even possible? I thought there were rules stating that the maximum retention could be 50%.
    So if the Oilers retain 3 million we are there already.

    Lets say the Canucks move Eriksson to Ottawa, the Oilers could retain on Lucic and take back Sutter and his 2 remaining years. Pray he is healthy and there is your 3rd line right shot centre. Steeper cap hit than you would like for your 3rd line centre but then again Lucic’s beast of burden is on the coast.

    The question is, what would the add be to make this deal happen?

  42. Darth Tu says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    slopitch,

    – Re: Lucic: I agree.It would be great if they could trade him without giving stuff up, and he clearly wants to go.But he’s the strongest possession player on the team last year that played full-time: so untill you have better possession players, he plays on the team on merit (and too bad about how much it costs)

    – I can’t believe that a

    Lucic-RNH-Pool couldn’t be a saw off third line in terms of possesion, and playing styles

    They probably could work out possession wise, but what do we do about Line 2? I’m guessing McDavid and Drai are separated, what do we do winger wise? Kassian still on Line one with McD, then who fills the left wing?

  43. ArmchairGM says:

    Andy Dufresne: Respectfully, what makes you think he is unlikley to be qualifed?

    2 very average years in a row and must be qualified at $3.25M. His ice time continues to dwindle- he was 10th among WAS forwards in TOI this year, both in the regular season and in the playoffs. I don’t think WAS has the luxury of paying $3.25M for a guy they use on their 4th line whose boxcars have been declining for several years now.

    Look at it another way: he’s the same age as Khaira and produced at a similar rate this year. Would you sign JJ for $3.25M or let him walk?

  44. who says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    slopitch,

    – Re: Lucic: I agree.It would be great if they could trade him without giving stuff up, and he clearly wants to go.But he’s the strongest possession player on the team last year that played full-time: so untill you have better possession players, he plays on the team on merit (and too bad about how much it costs)

    – I can’t believe that a

    Lucic-RNH-Pool couldn’t be a saw off third line in terms of possesion, and playing styles

    If he’s a great possession player, and if he deserves to be on the team on merit, then stick him on the 4th line and tell him to saw that off.
    Quit handcuffing offensive players by sticking Lucic on their left wing.
    This guy is not a good player. Let’s not use numbers to pretend he is.

  45. McSorley33 says:

    If you are going to make an impression with the new Boss – Joe G showed how you do that…wow.

    Full marks.

  46. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Tapdog: OP is that even possible? I thought there were rules stating that the maximum retention could be 50%.
    So if the Oilers retain 3 million we are there already.

    Lets say the Canucks move Eriksson to Ottawa, the Oilers could retain on Lucic and take back Sutter and his 2 remaining years. Pray he is healthy and there is your 3rd line right shot centre. Steeper cap hit than you would like for your 3rd line centre but then again Lucic’s beast of burden is on the coast.

    The question is, what would the add be to make this deal happen?

    – Yeah I had a “fantasy trade” where Lucic in 2 steps goes to Vancouver: and he costs net $4.5 MM to their cap, and Erikkson comes to Oil for net the same. And the team facilitng the trad gets a bunch of mid-round picks (and has to take the cap)

  47. ArmchairGM says:

    Primetime: I don’t think there is anyway Washington loses this asset for nothing.Could easily trade him to another team willing to qualify him for draft picks or a younger promising player.I would love the Oil to do this…

    I don’t know how many teams are willing to give up assets for the privilege of paying a 4th liner $3.25M, do you?

  48. McSorley33 says:

    Hey, some want Rieder back. Some want Gagner back. Some think Lucic should actually still play in the NHL….

    Some people eagerly want to recreate the forward magic from this past year?

  49. JimmyV1965 says:

    who: Would love to see a Lucic for Sutter swap, with Edmonton retaining 2 million, but no way it happens.
    Sutter is a better player,only has 2 years left, and is MUCH easier to buy out.
    Why does Vancouver make that trade?

    I was just throwing that name out there because Stauffer mentioned it. There must be a lot of guys out there making $3 – 4 mill with three or four years left on their deal who we could swap salaries with.

  50. Wilde says:

    Fourth thing is that the Condors are also just a better team than the Gulls and unless Bear is out too (he’s been strong this series) then they’re going to come back and win the series

  51. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar:

    – I would like to bring Rieder back- no, not qualified at $2M, however at a lower number – of course, its not going to happen.

    I have no issue bringing Rieder back for under $1.2 million. If Tippett is the coach, he played his best hockey under Tippett. If Nelson is the coach, Nelson gets the best out of everyone he coaches.

  52. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Of coure Lucic is willing to move on.I don’t think his NMC is a huge factor in the inability to move him (maybe to a few potential destinations but I believe he’d waive for most).

    A buyout is a non-starter.

    A clean disposition by adding the 8th overall (or similar) is, to me, a non-starter.

    I could potentially get on board with retaining and adding a lesser but solid sweetener on the Bear level but I don’t like it.

    I like a creative type disposition – likey along the lines of a 3-team agreement (Lucic essentially waives to the ultimate destination) – Oilers trade to destination A and retain $3M – Destination A team trades to ultimate destination team and retains $1.5M.

    Destination A team gets a small sweetener from the Oilers – maybe a 4th round pick in exchange for a 6th round pick back.

    Ultimate team gets Lucic at $1.5M.

    I like Lucic for Eriksson.

  53. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    who:
    This guy is not a good player. Let’s not use numbers to pretend he is.

    – Sure, but there are a lot of worse players on the team right now. Small praise to be sure

    – He’s a NHL player, his contract sucks, his performance brutal relative to what was expected

    – Maybe Holland can be creative. I think the hurt will be shocking if he gets moved this year: be careful what you wish for.

  54. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar:

    Gagner could likely provide close to value for $3M if he’s glued to the top 6 all year but we likely want to shoot at bit higher (quicker and younger) than Sam. Yaremchuk had a good thought on Gagner a while ago.Trade him to a team that will buy him out (i.e. Ottawa) with a small sweetener and then re-sign at a more nominal amount.

    Ottawa is a cash poor team. They are not a candidate to buyout Gagner.

  55. russ99 says:

    Look at Holland’s track record, he usually adds in FA.

    Need to cut cap to be able to do that.

    1. Trade Gagner for a pick at the draft, retain if needed. His cap hit is too large, ideally the highest he can bat in the lineup once acquisitions are made is 3C. See if we can move Brodziak and Kassian at the draft too. Gonna have to bury Manning in the AHL, Holland would be a miracle worker to dump him.

    2. Figure out what to do with Puljujarvi. Would prefer Europe fpr a year, rather than sell low. Maybe a front loaded multi-year deal lets him sneak through waivers for a year?

    3. See if we can find a trade partner for Sekera for 7/1. The injury risk is too great at his cap hit. I wouldn’t buy him out, though.

    4. Look for a trade partner for Lucic for 7/2 after bonus vests. Sounding more positive that Lucic will accept a trade. Hopefully a buyout isn’t necessary, but if it’s between Lucic breaking camp with the Oilers and the buyout, I’m going buyout.

  56. godot10 says:

    slopitch:
    “The Bear roars in San Diego!” ha liked that line. Those highlights are interesting. Need to button up defensively and/or get better goaltending.

    Ken Holland, Bob Nicholson, Keith Gretzky and Craig MacTavish in San Diego. Telling for who sticks around?

    Holland cannot really change management to July. Anyone he brings in before then is unlikely able to participate in the draft. Management most likelyl will occur in July.

    One of the good things about hiring Holland is that he has watched the top US draft eligible players a lot, which means he is not likely to trade the #8OV.

  57. godot10 says:

    jtblack:
    San Jose came into the playoffs with the worst combined SV% in the last 30 years.Yet they are off to Round 3.This game makes no sense sometimes.

    They only advanced vs. Vegas because of a horrible decision by the referees. MacKinnon got hurt at the wrong time for Colorado.

    When teams are close in ability, good fortune often determines the winner.

    Benn was centimetres away from winning the other series for Dallas.

  58. Tapdog says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Yeah I had a “fantasy trade”where Lucic in 2 steps goes to Vancouver: and he costs net $4.5 MM to their cap, and Erikkson comes to Oil for net the same.And the team facilitng the trad gets a bunch of mid-round picks (and has to take the cap)

    Lol I know I am dreaming but then maybe Holland can put something together 🙂

  59. jtblack says:

    I am trying to be Optimistic, but when I look at the Oilers roster and compare it to the 8 playoff teams from the West; I see getting into the playoffs next year as VERY CHALLENGING for this team.

    Teams that made the Playoffs:

    NASHVILLE
    WINNIPEG
    ST.LOUIS
    CALGARY
    SAN JOSE
    VEGAS

    DALLAS
    COLORADO

    Teams that missed the Playoffs and had more Points that Edmonton.

    ARIZONA
    CHICAGO
    MINNESOTA
    VANCOUVER
    ANAHEIM

    Who is going to drop out of the playoff picture?? maybe Dallas? The other 7 teams seems pretty solid to me and have more depth than Edmonton. Just can’t see Edmonton getting more than 90 points.

  60. ArmchairGM says:

    Tapdog: OP is that even possible? I thought there were rules stating that the maximum retention could be 50%.
    So if the Oilers retain 3 million we are there already.

    Yes, it is possible. Each contract can be traded with retention twice, each time with any amount up to 50% of the remaining value retained. Teams are limited in how many retained salary contracts they have on the books, and the percentage of cap retained must equal the percentage of salary retained. But for sure OP’s scenario could work, with Lucic reaching his final destination with a $1.5M cap hit.

  61. OriginalPouzar says:

    Full Condor highlights from last night:

    https://twitter.com/condors/status/1126517941455900672?s=12

  62. russ99 says:

    jtblack,

    I don’t think we need a gut rebuild to get there, just a winger for Connor/Leon and a winger for Nuge and a decent goalie with some graduation from the AHL. We finished 11 points back of a playoff spot.

  63. defmn says:

    godot10: They only advanced vs. Vegas because of a horrible decision by the referees.MacKinnon got hurt at the wrong time for Colorado.

    When teams are close in ability, good fortune often determines the winner.

    Benn was centimetres away from winning the other series for Dallas.

    Can’t disagree with any of this but from the parts of those two series that I saw it looked to me like two old fashioned ‘heavy hockey’ teams beat two new fashioned ‘quick hockey’ teams.

    They were close and every team had their times when they looked dominant over the other but for better or worse old fashioned heavy won both series.

    Not sure what to make of that.

  64. jtblack says:

    russ99:
    jtblack,

    I don’t think we need a gut rebuild to get there, just a winger for Connor/Leon and a winger for Nuge and a decent goalie with some graduation from the AHL.We finished 11 points back of a playoff spot.

    My Crystal ball tells me that Edm missed this coming year and makes it the following year ..

    Obviously lots of roster moves will occur between now and October.; but that’s my feeling.

  65. PinkSocks says:

    jtblack,

    And if Panarin ends up back in Chicago and Crawford gets healthy, the Hawks could very well be back in the picture next year. The Yotes should contend again,

    I don’t see Dallas dropping back unless Bishop falls off. Maybe the Avs can’t get it together again. Out of the playoff group I’d say SJS could be out of the picture as they age, and eventually Gio is going to start falling and if the Flames cant find a goaltender (fingers crossed) I could even see them pull a 17-18 Oilers.

  66. Tapdog says:

    ArmchairGM: Yes, it is possible.Each contract can be traded with retention twice, each time with any amount up to 50% of the remaining value retained. Teams are limitedin how many retained salary contracts they have on the books, and the percentage of cap retained must equal the percentage of salary retained. But for sure OP’s scenario could work, with Lucic reaching his final destination with a $1.5M cap hit.

    Ok thank you, so you are saying there is a chance lol.
    Still think it can be done without having to go this far but time will tell.

  67. Nit64 says:

    russ99: We finished 11 points back of a playoff spot.

    90 points is NOT going to get you in the playoffs many years.

  68. jtblack says:

    PinkSocks:
    jtblack,

    And if Panarin ends up back in Chicago and Crawford gets healthy, the Hawks could very well be back in the picture next year.The Yotes should contend again,

    I don’t see Dallas dropping back unless Bishop falls off.Maybe the Avs can’t get it together again.Out of the playoff group I’d say SJS could be out of the picture as they age, and eventually Gio is going to start falling and if the Flames cant find a goaltender (fingers crossed) I could even see them pull a 17-18 Oilers.

    Interesting. 5 of the same 8 teams made it in 2018 and 2019.

    In 2018 the 3 closest teams that missed the playoffs, (ST.L – 94 pts, DAL – 92 pts, CGY – 84 pts) all got in in 2019 ….

    Edmonton needs 2 or 3 teams to drop out again AND has to leap frog 4 or 5 … Tough Task ..

  69. Darth Tu says:

    Nit64: 90 points is NOT going to get you in the playoffs many years.

    And Montreal had 96 points and missed out by 2! They had more points than 3 of the Western Conference teams. It’s about time the NHL got with the program and instigated a crossover like the CFL 😉

  70. Andy Dufresne says:

    jtblack:
    I am trying to be Optimistic, but when I look at the Oilers roster and compare it to the 8 playoff teams from the West; I see getting into the playoffs next year as VERY CHALLENGING for this team.

    Teams that made the Playoffs:

    NASHVILLE
    WINNIPEG
    ST.LOUIS
    CALGARY
    SAN JOSE
    VEGAS

    DALLAS
    COLORADO

    Teams that missed the Playoffs and had more Points that Edmonton.

    ARIZONA
    CHICAGO
    MINNESOTA
    VANCOUVER
    ANAHEIM

    Who is going to drop out of the playoff picture??maybe Dallas?The other 7 teams seems pretty solid to me and have more depth than Edmonton. Just can’t see Edmonton getting more than 90 points.

    In the Parity Era, there will be fewer and fewer bottom dwellers. Teams will go from last place to making the playoffs. Teams will go from making the playoffs to last place. More wild card teams will beat more top seeds. There will be fewer Dynasties (which has already been redefined as 3 cups in succession) The regular season races will be tighter. Etc Etc. This is all by design, and it’s already going according to plan.

    Somewhere, Sam Pollock* is rolling over in his grave.

    (* Samuel Patterson Smyth Pollock, OC, CQ was a sports executive who was general manager of the National Hockey League’s Montreal Canadiens for 14 years where they won 9 Stanley Cups.)

  71. ArmchairGM says:

    russ99:
    Look at Holland’s track record, he usually adds in FA.

    Need to cut cap to be able to do that.

    Ideally yes, but it’s not absolutely necessary. There are 15 players under contract and $12M in cap space for next year. Assuming Khaira, Puljujarvi and Chiasson return and their combined cap hit is $4M, that leaves $8M for 5 players.

    Benson and Gambardella may earn spots ($800k each) and one of Lagesson and Jones as well (say $750k). That leaves $5.65M to sign 2 players – not enough for a marque player to be sure, but 2 decent wingers could be acquired with this money.

    Of course, changes ARE needed. As someone pointed out above, we don’t want to come into camp with the same group of players next year – that would be pointless. And we can’t expect Benson and Gambardella to move the needle much – they may, but to depend on it would be very Chiarelli-like. I’m not sure that Holland is a horse-trader though, so don’t expect tons of moves from him this summer. I’m thinking one cap dump (with prospect or pick added) and one buyout gets him enough space to bring in a few more new faces.

    UFA’s with links to Holland:

    Vanek. (+) Probably comes cheap and short-term, can still score. Right handed PP option. (-) Needs to be sheltered like crazy, easy minutes and only O-zone starts.

    Filppula. (+) Cheap and short-term, can still play 3C. Veteran playmaker with good 2-way acumen. (-) Won’t put up more than 30 points, but should at least saw-off.

    Sheahan. (+) Good on the dot and can be a shutdown guy, will be cheap, too. Upgrade on Brodziak for sure. Can play W and C. (-) Inconsistant, doesn’t produce much offense at all.

    Nyquist. (+) Amazing skater, smart, top-6 producer. Has been a pretty consistent 20+ goal, 50+ points for a few years. (-) Will cost money and term, isn’t a 2-way player, undersized. He’ll be 30 by the time training camp rolls around.

    Certainly the first 3 players could be acquired without making any painful cap dumps or buyouts, but a Nyquist signing would require money leaving.

  72. Andy Dufresne says:

    Nit64: 90 points is NOT going to get you in the playoffs many years.

    IMO, In the age of Parity, McDavid, Good Goaltending, and Good Health could get us into the playoffs.

  73. jtblack says:

    Andy Dufresne: In the Parity Era, there will be fewer and fewer bottom dwellers. Teams will go from last place to making the playoffs. Teams will go from making the playoffs to last place. More wild card teams will beat more top seeds. There will be fewer Dynasties (which has already been redefined as 3 cups in succession) The regular season races will be tighter. Etc Etc.This is all by design, and it’s already going according to plan.

    Somewhere, Sam Pollock* is rolling over in his grave.

    (* Samuel Patterson Smyth Pollock, OC, CQ was a sports executive who was general manager of the National Hockey League’s Montreal Canadiens for 14 years where they won 9 Stanley Cups.)

    Well. Edmonton has missed the playoffs 12 of the last 13 years. So the “new system” doesn’t seem to be designed for them.

    Buffalo has missed for 8 years.

    Arizona for 7 years.

    Vancouver, Detroit and Florida 3+ ….

    I think it’s the same as it always was. Poorly run teams miss more often than not, year after year … They change coaches and GM’s but the results are the same …

    OTT has missed 2 years in row and they finished dead last. They could be years away …

  74. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Holland said he likes speed and as much skill as possible. I think that puts a lot of Chiarelli players at risk of moving on.

    Holland also said one piece at a time, so the large turnover may be over a few seasons, with some shoring up short term.

    Good youngish players I see maybe not fitting the new MO
    Gambardella
    Marody
    Possibly Benson but his skating isn’t bad and skill is high
    Lagesson
    Any player on the Oilers outside of Connor Leon Nuge Klefbom Nurse

    JP should fit the model. Yama as well if he can show speed at the NHL level and stay healthy.

    I think Lagesson is a keeper because of his range, as a third pairing. If Jones doesn’t take another step and turn out as an NHL puck moving offense leaning top 4, I think Lagesson has the better chance because of his IQ, passing and size.

    I don’t watch AHL games so I have to go by comments here regarding speed. By speed we don’t know exactly what Holland means, but competent skating probably is enough, as in can get the job done reliably and for D can gap as Holland sees it should be done.

    Not being above average would put a player in jeopardy over time, but I see Holland as the type that won’t ‘actually’ throw the baby out with the bath water, as others have after using the phrase. He’ll replace as he can, but good effective players of any type are hard to find.

  75. Halfwise says:

    Apropos of nothing much, before they were the Five Man Electrical Band, they were called The Staccatos.

  76. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    Holland said he likes speed and as much skill as possible. I think that puts a lot of Chiarelli players at risk of moving on.

    Holland also said one piece at a time, so the large turnover may be over a few seasons, with some shoring up short term.

    Good youngish playersI see maybe not fitting the new MO
    Gambardella
    Marody
    Possibly Benson but his skating isn’t bad and skill is high
    Lagesson
    Any player on the Oilers outside of Connor Leon Nuge Klefbom Nurse

    JP should fit the model. Yama as well if he can show speed at the NHL level and stay healthy.

    I think Lagesson is a keeper because of his range, as a third pairing. If Jones doesn’t take another step and turn out as an NHL puck moving offense leaning top 4, I think Lagesson has the better chance because of his IQ, passing and size.

    I don’t watch AHL games so I have to go by comments here regarding speed. By speed we don’t know exactly what Holland means, but competent skating probably is enough, as in can get the job done reliably and for D can gap as Holland sees it should be done.

    Not being above average would put a player in jeopardy over time, but I see Holland as the type that won’t ‘actually’ throw the baby out with the bath water, as others have after using the phrase. He’ll replace as he can, but good effective players of any type are hard to find.

    I forgot Persson and Berglund.

  77. Primetime says:

    ArmchairGM: I don’t know how many teamsare willing to give up assets for the privilege of paying a 4th liner $3.25M, do you?

    Of course not, but lets be honest, just because he is the 10th forward on a deep Washington team doesn’t make it so in Edmonton. He would instantly be the 1st or 2nd line LW on the Oil, depending on where Leon plays.

    And comparing him to Khaira is not really applicable either. Being 4th line in Edmonton takes much less skill/talent than in Washington. And Burakovsky’s skill set is way higher than JJ…way more likely to thrive in Edmonton in a top 6 role…speed, shot, first rounder…no comparison. Had a down year this year, but typically a 0.5ppg player the last 3, JJ never over 0.3ppg.

    I get that your saying why would Washington qualify him at that number for him to be THEIR 10th best forward and I can’t argue that. I’m saying there are other teams that would gladly pay him that to be in their top 6 and I believe the Oil should be one of those teams. I also think the Caps know that and would trade him before letting him walk for nothing.

    Just my opinion

  78. Rebillled says:

    As much as I want to see Lucic gone and in Vancouver.

    It will be tough watching Lucic score every game against us in that gross jersey. i’m actually somewhat terrified of this trade if he rebounds.

    Effectively:

    Erikkson and Larsson for H(vomit sound)

  79. Maoriduvpoojt says:

    Wilde:
    Fourth thing is that the Condors are also just a better team than the Gulls and unless Bear is out too (he’s been strong this series) then they’re going to come back and win the series

    No one is talking about Starrett. I heard he let one or two weak ones in. How did Skinner look?

    Curious that Wells wasn’t dressed, seems to have had superior results to Skinner this season….

  80. jtblack says:

    Rebillled,

    “It will be tough watching Lucic score every game against us in that gross jersey. i’m actually somewhat terrified of this trade if he rebounds.”

    Are you really worried about this? Not only does Lucic not score anymore, he also doesn’t get any shots on goal anymore. He had 74 shots in 79 games. There is no rebound for slow aging power forwards … he has met the Cliff.

  81. who says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Sure, but there are a lot of worse players on the team right now.Small praise to be sure

    – He’s a NHL player, his contract sucks, his performance brutal relative to what was expected

    – Maybe Holland can be creative.I think the hurt will be shocking if he gets moved this year: be careful what you wish for.

    I agree with you. I would love to see Lucic moved, but I don’t think it’s possible without attaching a BIG sweetener, and I really don’t want to do that.
    I would trade him straight up for Erickson, if that deal is out there. Lucic might be a better player, and there is always the intimidation factor, but Erickson has 1 less year and his buyout doesn’t yo yo up and down like Lucic’s. Makes it a lot easier for Holland to project and plan for his salary cap hit.
    Name the forwards that are worse players on the current Oiler roster. Surely we can cobble together 10 better forwards that would keep Lucic on the 4th line. Can’t we?

  82. godot10 says:

    Darth Tu: And Montreal had 96 points and missed out by 2! They had more points than 3 of the Western Conference teams.It’s about time the NHL got with the program and instigated a crossover like the CFL

    The NHL plays an unbalanced schedule. One cannot compare points in the east vs. points in the west.

  83. OilersFuture says:

    JimmyV1965:
    Maybe we can trade Lucic straight across for Wennberg. They both have four years left. Wennberg makes $4.9 so we could simply swap salaries. Stauffer suggested trading Lucic for Sutter and swapping salaries. I really like that idea. There must be a bunch of guys making $3 mill plus who we could trade with in a salary swap.

    I was thinking about the Wennberg for Russell or Sekera. But Wennberg is more likely to be bought out. He’s under 25 meaning that he will only be 1/3 of his contract. The cap hit to buy him out will be 441K for the first 4 years and 891k for the final 4 years.

    I think Wennberg should be a target for signing as a free agent once he is bought out because he could be a decent low cost middle-six option.

  84. knighttown says:

    Andy Dufresne: In the Parity Era, there will be fewer and fewer bottom dwellers. Teams will go from last place to making the playoffs. Teams will go from making the playoffs to last place. More wild card teams will beat more top seeds. There will be fewer Dynasties (which has already been redefined as 3 cups in succession) The regular season races will be tighter. Etc Etc.This is all by design, and it’s already going according to plan.

    Somewhere, Sam Pollock* is rolling over in his grave.

    (* Samuel Patterson Smyth Pollock, OC, CQ was a sports executive who was general manager of the National Hockey League’s Montreal Canadiens for 14 years where they won 9 Stanley Cups.)

    Exactly.

    Although closely correlated I imagine, one years standings points do not necessarily forecast the next years standings points.

    First you need to be one of the say, 12 teams that have a good enough roster that allowing for variance could possibly get in.

    I’d look at Montreal and NYI as two teams that earned at the top end of their expected points and I’d say a team like Winnipeg and Edmonton earned closer to the bottom end.

    There are only so many points to go around so the key is to win some effing games which takes points away from others.

    There’s usually a miracle team that comes out of nowhere to make the playoffs. That’s the Islanders who were given no shot.

    There’s about 8-10 teams that couldn’t miss the playoffs if they tried (TB, Tor, Bos, Wash, Winn, Cal, Vegas, SJ (if Karlsson)

    There’s a few less that unless they decide to change direction (like NYR might) that would need a Islanders-like miracle to make it. (Ott, Van, Ana, LA, NJ, NYR)

    I would hope the Oilers can fix their roster enough to be in that mushy-middle and that if they perform above their expected points percentage could grab a spot.

    Could I see a scenario where Edmonton is better than Dallas, Minnesota, Chicago and Zona? Absolutely. Could I see a realistic scenario where they are better than Winnipeg? Nope.

  85. Darth Tu says:

    godot10: The NHL plays an unbalanced schedule.One cannot compare points in the east vs. points in the west.

    Good point. I’d quite like to see a shift to home and away against each team and a reduction in the overall games played per season. 62 games would make for more exciting hockey in my mind.

  86. Nit64 says:

    knighttown: Although closely correlated I imagine, one years standings points do not necessarily forecast the next years standings points.

    First you need to be one of the say, 12 teams that have a good enough roster that allowing for variance could possibly get in.

    Yes, variance in the current format is significant. Big swings in the West over the 6 years. To be a point over the highest teams that missed you needed:

    97 in 14/15 and 96 last year
    84 in 15/16 and 88 this year
    91 on average

  87. RonnieB says:

    Darth Tu: Good point.I’d quite like to see a shift to home and away against each team and a reduction in the overall games played per season.62 games would make for more exciting hockey in my mind.

    I don’t think either the owners or the NHLPA would vote yes on a 25% reduction in revenue/salaries.

  88. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    who:
    Name the forwards that are worse players on the current Oiler roster. Surely we can cobble together 10 better forwards that would keep Lucic on the 4th line. Can’t we?

    – I think the cost benefit of Lucic on 4rth vs the hurt to move and the dent in the ceiling is massive

    – Salary aside: here’s forwards from last year’s roster that I’d rather Lucic (and would expect Lucic to be better than again this year), :

    1) Rattie
    2) Reider
    3) Brodziak
    4) Cave (maybe equal?)
    5) Patrick Russell
    6) Joe G.
    7) Malone
    8) Gagner: some might disagree, but I don’t think he’s an NHL player: slow, small, soft, no hit, no shoot, take puck away easy, old

    – All of these guys were even more useless than Lucic IMO: had poor possession numbers, score even less, and don’t even do something like hit

    – Lucic was, as bad as he was last year, the 3rd highest scoring winger (only Drai, Chiasson and Kassian scored more: that’s brutal).

    – So get better wingers and push him down the roster.

    – So yeah, if they get 13 forwards who are better than him next year: I just don’t see it.

    – This is a low threshold to be sure, but the cost too dear, and the reduction in cost to move Lucic a year out is so much greater by any measure, with more outs

    – Lucic was brutal last year. His salary is a huge anchor. They need to get rid of him at some point.
    But not at any of the scenarios I’ve seen IMO. The wingers for the most part on the team were way worse than he was.

  89. who says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – I think the cost benefit of Lucic on 4rth vs the hurt to move and the dent in the ceiling is massive

    – Salary aside: here’s forwards from last year’s roster that I’d rather Lucic (and would expect Lucic to be better than again this year), :

    1) Rattie
    2) Reider
    3) Brodziak
    4) Cave (maybe equal?)
    5) Patrick Russell
    6) Joe G.
    7) Malone
    8) Gagner: some might disagree, but I don’t think he’s an NHL player: slow, small, soft, no hit, no shoot, take puck away easy, old

    – All of these guys were even more useless than Lucic IMO: had poor possession numbers, score even less, and don’t even do something like hit

    – Lucic was, as bad as he was last year, the 3rd highest scoring winger (only Drai, Chiasson and Kassian scored more: that’s brutal).

    – So get better wingers and push him down the roster.

    – So yeah, if they get 13 forwards who are better than him next year: I just don’t see it.

    – This is a low threshold to be sure, but the cost too dear, and the reduction in cost to move Lucic a year out is so much greater by any measure, with more outs

    – Lucic was brutal last year.His salary is a huge anchor.They need to get rid of him at some point.But not at any of the scenarios I’ve seen IMO.The wingers for the most part on the team were way worse than he was.

    Would you trade him for Erickson straight up?

  90. OriginalPouzar says:

    I see Ethan Bear gave an interview today – still looking for the audio to see what they said about his shoulder but this is a good sign for sure. Doesn’t seem serious at all.

  91. Professor Q says:

    I honestly didn’t know about the Comrie ordeal in detail before today.

    https://www.reddit.com/r/EdmontonOilers/comments/bmnail/til_in_2003_a_deal_was_in_place_to_send_mike/

    Why wasn’t Lowe fired for this alone? Maybe we don’t get Pronger and 2006 but then also maybe Anaheim also doesn’t get Pronger and 2007.

    As much as I dislike Perry, I think a haul of Perry and a 1st for Mike Comrie would have been a steal (if poor drafting around that time didn’t occur).

    Not to mention the Pronger and the rest of the post-2006 exodus, and then the fiascos of Nylander, Heatley, Souray, Vanek, Penner, Smyth, Dubnyk, Brodziak, etc. (he was involved, even if others were the GMs).

    Come on, Ken Holland. Clean house. You know you want to.

  92. pts2pndr says:

    Wilde: Hard disagree on Jones’s passing, and if he’s a poor defender it doesn’t show up in the results

    At the NHL level I saw him used as a turnstile on more than three occasions for goals. I did not see any stretch passes and he appeared slow in hitting the open man on breakouts. I think he could be a top four defensemen with some seasoning on the third pairing. My question is who sits or gets traded to make a spot open for him. Thinking he is ready for second pairing is in my opinion a huge mistake.

  93. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: Again, your list may have different names, my list is as above. This morning i was looking at buyout/trade dumps, I don’t see Russell as that kind of asset.

    Interesting – you may be the first knowledgeable Oiler fan that I have corresponded with that has that view – even the staunchest Russell supporters seem to acknowledge him as a primary disposition target.

  94. ArmchairGM says:

    Primetime: Of course not, but lets be honest, just because he is the 10th forward on a deep Washington team doesn’t make it so in Edmonton.He would instantly be the 1st or 2nd line LW on the Oil, depending on where Leon plays.

    And comparing him to Khaira is not really applicable either.Being 4th line in Edmonton takes much less skill/talent than in Washington.And Burakovsky’s skill set is way higher than JJ…way more likely to thrive in Edmonton in a top 6 role…speed, shot, first rounder…no comparison.Had a down year this year, but typically a 0.5ppg player the last 3, JJ never over 0.3ppg.

    I get that your saying why would Washington qualify him at that number for him to be THEIR 10th best forward and I can’t argue that.I’m saying there are other teams that would gladly pay him that to be in their top 6 and I believe the Oil should be one of those teams.I also think the Caps know that and would trade him before letting him walk for nothing.

    Just my opinion

    Would you say that Burakovsky has more skill / potential than Puljujarvi? Based on age and performance, would you say that they should get similar contracts?

  95. Munny says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    I expect for LT there is a difference between an asset that can be traded and a salary dump.

    Edit: His list doesn’t make that clear though—he has them as buyout targets or trade chips, so I have no idea what’s going on, TTYTT.

  96. OriginalPouzar says:

    russ99:
    Holland has no ties to Puljujarvi, and with the agent posturing, I suspect Holland won’t budge like our previous GMs did. Also a past similar situation with Athanasiou.

    Still think a year in Europe is the best option.

    I read this alot but I just don’t get it. Significant issues with Jesse remain related to the different ice surface and different style of play in North American and he is clearly still working on acclimatizing to the culture.

    I would think heading to Europe would just lead to regression in these areas.

    A year in the AHL would be the best option, in my opinion, unfortunately, its now a non-option.

  97. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Another RFA unlikely to be qualified by his team: Andre Burakovsky. What does Oilerville think about signing him to a show me contract?

    I wanted to acquire him for Talbot at the deadline (thinking WSH needed a back-up for Holtby as he was struggling and he is essentially a pending UFA given he won’t be qualified).

    I figure we could have test-driven him in the top 6 for 20 games and see if there was any chemistry.

    I think he produced better down the stretch and I would think WSH will try and get him signed for something under the $3M QO he would need but, absolutely, depending on the contract, I’d take a low risk bet on him – he won’t come super super cheap though – probably still a couple million a year.

  98. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wilde:

    Game was refreshingly clean, but Bear went down late and didn’t return after he fell awkwardly beside – but not into – the end boards

    I just listened to Bear’s interview – 4 minutes long – no mention of his shoulder or anything about an ongoing injury.

    I think he’s fine.

  99. RonnieB says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Lucic was, as bad as he was last year, the 3rd highest scoring winger (only Drai, Chiasson and Kassian scored more: that’s brutal).

    – So get better wingers and push him down the roster.

    – So yeah, if they get 13 forwards who are better than him next year: I just don’t see it.

    The problem is that without clearing some Cap space by moving Lucic out the Oilers lack the capacity to acquire those better wingers.
    As an aside, most of the proposed trades ( eg. Lucic for Ericksson, or with $2 million retained for Sutter ) is just the proverbial shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic because they do nothing to increase our cap space. Sutter, for instance, at $4.35 plus the $2 retention actually eats up $350k more than simply keeping Lucic. I would trade him with up to 50% retained OR for a different bad contract with a lower Cap hit ( Lucic for Darling ? Maybe worth considering if the pro/goalie scouts believe Darling could rebound into a reasonable backup goalie.)

  100. OriginalPouzar says:

    slopitch:

    IMO, the play is to move Russell or Sekerafor picks and then use the cap space on a goalie and 2-3 wingers. Holland needs to play hardball with JP or let him play in Europe a year. Is JP’s cap hit 3.4 mill? Let him play in Europe for a year and blossom. Use that cap space on a 1 year option and sign JP to a 1.75 2 year deal after this year. If they get value on these 2 wingers

    Puljujarvi is an RFA and only needs to be qualified at apx $900K – he will likely sign in the $1.25M range I would think and I believe he is a great bet for a value contract.

    There is no benefit to having him go to Europe in my opinion – he will regress in the areas that he still needs to improve on as they relate to the differences in the ice surface and the game (not to mention the language and culture).

    Not to mention that his cap hit was never $3.4M – it was $975K for the year and, if he vested any performance bonuses, they would be added at year end – of course, the majority of the bonuses, in particular the Schedule B bonuses, were realistically unattainable.

  101. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr: I know that many posters rate Jones very highly. Jones is a plus skater but is not good one on one defending. Too small to move forwards from in front of the net and does not tie up the opponents stick in front of the net. Even with his skating ability he is an average passer therefore getting to the puck quickly isn’t the asset it could be. I see potential and with some third pairing sheltered experience however whose place does he take? Lagesson plays better defence and while not as good a skater is a better passer, more physical and has a harder more accurate shot. Jones gets the love and Lagesson is an after thought or trade throw in in most posters minds. What are your thoughts.

    I’ve been speaking about Willie for almost 3 years now and am so glad his development is going so well. He’s a “new age Jason Smith” – a tough and aggressive defender but also a good skater who can pass and move the puck and has decent offensive instincts.

    When he gets his chance, and he will this year, he will become a fan favorite in Edmonton.

  102. OriginalPouzar says:

    OilersFuture:
    I’m interested to see what happens with Joey G.I think he’s a good enough player to play an effective 4th line game in the NHL, with potential to play up a line.I know it’s unlikely to happen but I would like to see a 3-4 year deal with a contract under 900K.This is similar to what Chicago did with Bickell and Stahlberg back in 2010.I’d like for the team to start planning who their role players are get them signed to longer term deals but also contracts that can be buried.

    Starrett I wonder if they consider a deal structured similarly to the one Brossoit signed prior to the 2016-17 season.Where he had a one-way deal but was waiver eligible and the cap was able to be buried.

    I think giving term to role players is generally the opposite of how a team should operate, however, if you are talking about a fully buryable amount then its not overly egregious – wouldn’t want too many though and one sets a precedent.

    Starrett may sign a one-way deal but he’ll still be waiver exempt for one more season (or until he plays 60 NHL games which isn’t realistic for this coming year).

  103. Pescador says:

    who: Would you trade him for Ericksonstraight up?

    Not directed at me but I certainly would.
    If for nothing more than getting out of cap jail a year earlier.
    What would be the harm in playing him in the Kassian hole for 10-15? You never know what could happen.
    The 1 year from retirement Sedins are not the same as 29 – 97
    Unless someone out there knows that Eriksson can’t skate anymore.

  104. OriginalPouzar says:

    Andy Dufresne: Respectfully, what makes you think he is unlikley to be qualifed?

    $3M and he hasn’t earned $3M with his recent performance.

  105. Nit64 says:

    Munny:
    OriginalPouzar,

    I expect for LT there is a difference between an asset that can be traded and a salary dump.

    Edit: His list doesn’t make that clear though—he has them as buyout targets or trade chips, so I have no idea what’s going on, TTYTT.

    “buyout/trade dumps” I think a trade dump is when you throw in real assets to dump cap of players with big negative value.

  106. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I think giving term to role players is generally the opposite of how a team should operate, however, if you are talking about a fully buryable amount then its not overly egregious – wouldn’t want too many though and one sets a precedent.

    Starrett may sign a one-way deal but he’ll still be waiver exempt for one more season (or until he plays 60 NHL games which isn’t realistic for this coming year).

    One can give term to role players if they are no more than 20% of the amount buriable in the minors.

    Pitlick signed for 3 years in Dallas at a dollar figure that could be entirely buried.

  107. RonnieB says:

    OriginalPouzar: Puljujarvi is an RFA and only needs to be qualified at apx $900K – he will likely sign in the $1.25M range I would think and I believe he is a great bet for a value contract.

    There is no benefit to having him go to Europe in my opinion – he will regress in the areas that he still needs to improve on as they relate to the differences in the ice surface and the game (not to mention the language and culture).

    Not to mention that his cap hit was never $3.4M – it was $975K for the year and, if he vested any performance bonuses, they would be added at year end – of course, the majority of the bonuses, in particular the Schedule B bonuses, were realistically unattainable.

    ^^^
    This.

  108. Pescador says:

    jtblack:
    I am trying to be Optimistic, but when I look at the Oilers roster and compare it to the 8 playoff teams from the West; I see getting into the playoffs next year as VERY CHALLENGING for this team.

    Teams that made the Playoffs:

    NASHVILLE
    WINNIPEG
    ST.LOUIS
    CALGARY
    SAN JOSE
    VEGAS

    DALLAS
    COLORADO

    Teams that missed the Playoffs and had more Points that Edmonton.

    ARIZONA
    CHICAGO
    MINNESOTA
    VANCOUVER
    ANAHEIM

    Who is going to drop out of the playoff picture??maybe Dallas?The other 7 teams seems pretty solid to me and have more depth than Edmonton. Just can’t see Edmonton getting more than 90 points.

    DAMMIT!!
    this post makes alot of sense.
    Hopefully Holland can add substantially to the current roster.
    Yikes

  109. OriginalPouzar says:

    Tapdog: OP is that even possible? I thought there were rules stating that the maximum retention could be 50%.
    So if the Oilers retain 3 million we are there already.

    Yes, I’ve dug in to the relevant CBA provision and had correspondence with Puckpedia and it seems the pie can be spit twice – 50% retainment and then 50% of the remaining 50% leading to three teams that hold the following percentage of the player’s cap:

    A – 50%
    B – 25%
    C – 25%

  110. YKOil says:

    Jones to LHD would be interesting – probably means Sekera is the trade target

    More interesting is if they see Jones as a viable RHD for Nurse – then Russell is a trade target

    I like Option B more

  111. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: Ideally yes, but it’s not absolutely necessary. There are 15 players under contract and $12M in cap space for next year. Assuming Khaira, Puljujarvi and Chiasson return and their combined cap hit is $4M, that leaves $8M for 5 players.

    Benson and Gambardella may earn spots ($800k each) and one of Lagesson and Jones as well (say $750k). That leaves $5.65M to sign 2 players – not enough for a marque player to be sure, but 2 decent wingers could be acquired with this money.

    Not to nitpick on one part of a thoughtful post but a good $2M to $3M needs to be spent on a goalie, unfortunately.

  112. OriginalPouzar says:

    Maoriduvpoojt: No one is talking about Starrett.I heard he let one or two weak ones in.How did Skinner look?

    Curious that Wells wasn’t dressed, seems to have had superior results to Skinner this season….

    Starrett was fantastic in the first but things imploded in a 3 min span in the second – one goal was pretty weak but he wasn’t that bad and I think the change was more about trying to change the momentum, etc. than his play.

    It was odd that Skinner was the back-up – Wells had the better year and spent more time in the AHL than Skinner and actually started game 2. Its reminded me a bit of Conklin being the back-up against Carolina back in 2006.

  113. OriginalPouzar says:

    who: I agree with you. I would love to see Lucic moved,but I don’t think it’s possible without attaching a BIG sweetener, and I really don’t want to do that.
    I would trade him straight up for Erickson,if that deal is out there. Lucic might be a better player, and there is always the intimidation factor, but Erickson has 1 less year and his buyout doesn’t yo yo up and down like Lucic’s. Makes it a lot easier for Holland to project and plan for his salary cap hit.
    Name the forwards that are worse players on the current Oiler roster. Surely we can cobble together 10 better forwards that would keep Lucic on the 4th line. Can’t we?

    The Erickson buyout is essentially as egregious as Lucics – cap hits of: $5.5M, $5.5M and $3.5M – non-starter.

    It actually costs cap the first two years and the player (Lucic, now Erickson, needs to be replaced in the lineup).

  114. OriginalPouzar says:

    With respect to Erickson over Lucic, in addition to one year less of term, it doesn’t come with the NMC in the expansion year.

    Now, I assume Lucic will play nice and waive the NMC for the expansion draft so he doesn’t need to be protected but you never know.

  115. OriginalPouzar says:

    Its interesting that some covet Russell over Sekera on the premise that Russell can play the right side.

    Yes, he can and does but he is materially worse on the right side than the left and not effective at 2RD except in small stretches. There is no doubt in my mind that Sekera can play the right side just as well as Russell (likely better) – yes, he’ll be worse as well but he starts from two tiers higher than Russell.

    I would imagine Nurse would do much better with Sekera than he does with Russell.

  116. OriginalPouzar says:

    Speaking of Nurse, Canada plays its first game at the Worlds tomorrow morning – looking forward to it.

  117. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ryan Holt confirms in the Gregor show that Bear is fine.

  118. Glovjuice says:

    pts2pndr: I know that many posters rate Jones very highly. Jones is a plus skater but is not good one on one defending. Too small to move forwards from in front of the net and does not tie up the opponents stick in front of the net. Even with his skating ability he is an average passer therefore getting to the puck quickly isn’t the asset it could be. I see potential and with some third pairing sheltered experience however whose place does he take? Lagesson plays better defence and while not as good a skater is a better passer, more physical and has a harder more accurate shot. Jones gets the love and Lagesson is an after thought or trade throw in in most posters minds. What are your thoughts.

    Agreed. And, Jones is a good skater but nothing like Gerard for example. I think he is a touch overrated here.

  119. who says:

    Pescador: Not directed at me but I certainly would.
    If for nothing more than getting out of cap jail a year earlier.
    What would be the harm in playing him in the Kassian hole for 10-15? You never know what could happen.
    The 1 year from retirement Sedins are not the same as 29 – 97
    Unless someone out there knows that Eriksson can’t skate anymore.

    I agree.
    If you want to trade Lucic, without adding a sweetener or retaining salary, or both, than Erickson is the best we can hope for.
    I wouldn’t play him with Connor and Leon though. Erickson is a 4th line penalty killer at this stage. The Oilers probably buy him out asap.
    Besides, I like Kassian on that top line. Why change what is working?

  120. who says:

    OriginalPouzar: The Erickson buyout is essentially as egregious as Lucics – cap hits of: $5.5M, $5.5M and $3.5M – non-starter.

    It actually costs cap the first two years and the player (Lucic, now Erickson, needs to be replaced in the lineup).

    You are missing the point OP.
    The buyout is bad for both players but Erickson’s contract is a year shorter. He also has a buyout cap hit that either remains constant or gets smaller each year. Lucic’s buyout cap hit yo yos up and down.
    If we start with the premise that both are replacement level players, why wouldn’t you take the shorter contract?

  121. Scungilli Slushy says:

    The main problem with Lucic Brodziak Gagner and such players is the lack of quickness. Lucic has good possession numbers. Gagner scoring rates, Brodziak can be strong on right side faceoffs, but they contribute to a lack of pressure on the opponents.

    They are pretty much chasing the play, instead of taking it to them. I think constant pressure on the puck in all three zones is critical to success especially in the playoffs.

    Some players can brain their way there, but very few imo. Sort of like how much havoc Kassian creates when on his game. And JP when he’s forechecking and disrupting breakouts. It takes a lot of pressure off defending when the other team can’t execute their plan.

    I’m pretty hopeful Holland is going to sort things out at least to an acceptable normal level. And the team might look again like a normal NHL team even if they don’t win the Cup straight away.

  122. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Erickson might be a decent plain winger in the top 6 if given an offensive role. And he’s not clueless defensively or on the boards. Ideal, no, better than some current roster options, yes. Health issues are his bugaboo. Same with Sutter.

  123. Pescador says:

    who: You are missing the point OP.
    The buyout is bad for both players but Erickson’s contract is a year shorter. He also has a buyout cap hit that either remains constantor gets smaller each year. Lucic’s buyout cap hit yo yos up and down.
    If we start with the premise that both are replacement level players, why wouldn’t you take the shorter contract?

    I feel the same, I want Kassian to play 82 games on the top line & score 17+ goals.
    3 things;
    I don’t know if that’s a realistic expectation.
    Injuries & cold spells.
    I don’t believe that the Oilers will be able to trade for or buy a 1st line RW in free agency.
    At least not this summer

  124. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: Not to nitpick on one part of a thoughtful post but a good $2M to $3M needs to be spent on a goalie, unfortunately.

    Yes, but I’ve accounted for 21 players on the 23 man roster. So I shouldn’t have written “a couple of wingers” because its 1 forward + 1 goalie we’ll need. We’ll have 5.65M for 2 players, whomever they be.

  125. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wrist surgery was rumored as a possibility for Yamamoto and he had that today.

    He’ll be ready for camp from accounts but who knows how this will effect the off-season – he’s a guy that needs to get stronger.

    I look for him to have a very productive start to the season in Bakersfield – he should be at a PPG or so next year I would think.

  126. OriginalPouzar says:

    who: You are missing the point OP.
    The buyout is bad for both players but Erickson’s contract is a year shorter. He also has a buyout cap hit that either remains constantor gets smaller each year. Lucic’s buyout cap hit yo yos up and down.
    If we start with the premise that both are replacement level players, why wouldn’t you take the shorter contract?

    m not missing the point – I fully understand how his buyout works and the fact that Lucic’s goes up and down for the first 4 years (making it tough to spend the cap space in the years that there are some as it disapears). I fully understand.

    My point of the post was that Erickson’s buyout structure is also awful – while it may be slightly awful it is still awful and not an option to me. There isn’t any cap savings until the 3rd year as, in the first two, the cap savings is $500K so when the replacement is added to the roster, we are over $6M – I guess we get the “bump” of a Joe G. over Lucic.

    Anyways, the point was solely that the buyout is egregious.

    I would definitely be in favor of the trade for various reasons: one year less, no NMC in the expansion draft season and, frankly, Erickson may rebound somewhat with a fresh start, who knows.

  127. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: Yes, but I’ve accounted for 21 players on the 23 man roster. So I shouldn’t have written “a couple of wingers” because its 1 forward + 1 goalie we’ll need. We’ll have 5.65M for 2 players,whomever they be.

    Thank you for that clarification as, when I read the original post, I interpreted it as acquiring two wingers with that money and didn’t see the goalie spend.

  128. Ice Sage says:

    jtblack:
    I am trying to be Optimistic, but when I look at the Oilers roster and compare it to the 8 playoff teams from the West; I see getting into the playoffs next year as VERY CHALLENGING for this team.

    Teams that made the Playoffs:

    NASHVILLE
    WINNIPEG
    ST.LOUIS
    CALGARY
    SAN JOSE
    VEGAS

    DALLAS
    COLORADO

    Teams that missed the Playoffs and had more Points that Edmonton.

    ARIZONA
    CHICAGO
    MINNESOTA
    VANCOUVER
    ANAHEIM

    Who is going to drop out of the playoff picture??maybe Dallas?The other 7 teams seems pretty solid to me and have more depth than Edmonton. Just can’t see Edmonton getting more than 90 points.

    Nashville could fall out. SJS will be on the bubble without Karlsson, Thornton (maybe cup hangover), Calgary’s been ‘solved’. Anaheim is in full rebuild. Am not sure hawks or canucks are there yet. I don’t think the Oilers are that far out and every year there are surprises – why not them?

  129. leadfarmer says:

    Ice Sage,

    Nashville fall out? Calgary solved?
    I’ll have what you’re having

  130. leadfarmer says:

    Dougie Hamilton may be playing for the Bruins still

  131. Professor Q says:

    These Raptors are beyond frustrating.

  132. Glovjuice says:

    Andy Dufresne: In the Parity Era, there will be fewer and fewer bottom dwellers. Teams will go from last place to making the playoffs. Teams will go from making the playoffs to last place. More wild card teams will beat more top seeds. There will be fewer Dynasties (which has already been redefined as 3 cups in succession) The regular season races will be tighter. Etc Etc.This is all by design, and it’s already going according to plan.

    Somewhere, Sam Pollock* is rolling over in his grave.

    (* Samuel Patterson Smyth Pollock, OC, CQ was a sports executive who was general manager of the National Hockey League’s Montreal Canadiens for 14 years where they won 9 Stanley Cups.)

    A current dynasty is two in succession or 3 in 5-6 years. Not three in a row – it hasn’t even happened.

  133. Ancient Oilers Fan says:

    Professor Q:
    I honestly didn’t know about the Comrie ordeal in detail before today.

    https://www.reddit.com/r/EdmontonOilers/comments/bmnail/til_in_2003_a_deal_was_in_place_to_send_mike/

    Why wasn’t Lowe fired for this alone? Maybe we don’t get Pronger and 2006 but then also maybe Anaheim also doesn’t get Pronger and 2007.

    As much as I dislike Perry, I think a haul of Perry and a 1st for Mike Comrie would have been a steal (if poor drafting around that time didn’t occur).

    Not to mention the Pronger and the rest of the post-2006 exodus, and then the fiascos of Nylander, Heatley, Souray, Vanek, Penner, Smyth, Dubnyk, Brodziak, etc. (he was involved, even if others were the GMs).

    Come on, Ken Holland. Clean house. You know you want to.

    My understanding of Lowe asking Comrie to pay money back was an ownership issue not a GM issue.

    At that time the Oilers were owned by a group of businessmen and there were over 30 men in the ownership meetings, some of whom could afford to put in more money if needed and some who couldn’t.

    That group saved the Oilers for Edmonton and should be commended. If you have been in business meetings with 10, let alone 30 strong minded individuals getting agreement is most difficult.

    If the owners had deep pockets at that time there would have been no issue. Lowe negotiated a fantastic trade but then, I believe, was instructed to ask for the money back from Comrie.

  134. JimmyV1965 says:

    who: You are missing the point OP.
    The buyout is bad for both players but Erickson’s contract is a year shorter. He also has a buyout cap hit that either remains constantor gets smaller each year. Lucic’s buyout cap hit yo yos up and down.
    If we start with the premise that both are replacement level players, why wouldn’t you take the shorter contract?

    I think I would rather have Lucic than Erickson. Lucic could probably be marginally okay on the fourth line. I don’t think Erickson would work in that role at all. I don’t think either are capable of playing in the top nine and Lucic has a sliver of value in a non-scoring role. I don’t think Erickson has any value if he’s not scoring.

  135. Pescador says:

    Professor Q:
    These Raptors are beyond frustrating.

    They are consistently inconsistent
    Which is why they may beat Philly but are no match for Milwaukee.
    I am cheering for the Raptors in game 7 but I am not betting on them

  136. Maoriduvpoojt says:

    Ancient Oilers Fan: My understanding of Lowe asking Comrie to pay money back was an ownership issue not a GM issue.

    At that time the Oilers were owned by a group of businessmen and there were over 30 men in the ownership meetings, some of whom could afford to put in more money if needed and some who couldn’t.

    That group saved the Oilers for Edmonton and should be commended.If you have been in business meetings with 10, let alone 30 strong minded individuals getting agreement is most difficult.

    If the owners had deep pockets at that time there would have been no issue.Lowe negotiated a fantastic trade but then, I believe, was instructed to ask for the money back from Comrie.

    I think a big part of this was also that Comrie came from a wealthy family and some owners felt they had him by the balls and considering that, they figured he would be eager to “buy his freedom”.

    Interestingly, I looked into when he started dating Hillary Duff, but it was in 2007 (I thought maybe her Hollywood residence had an impact on this odd demand). In their divorce settlement Duff had to pay Comrie close to $2.5 million (well, closer to $2.4, but it is almost ironic put this way). Had he known this would happen, perhaps he would have forked it over in 2003, lol.

  137. SwedishPoster says:

    JimmyV1965: I think I would rather have Lucic than Erickson. Lucic could probably be marginally okay on the fourth line. I don’t think Erickson would work in that role at all. I don’t think either are capable of playing in the top nine and Lucic has a sliver of value in a non-scoring role. I don’t think Erickson has any value if he’s not scoring.

    Eriksson is still a good defensive player and a pretty strong PKer so that’s something he has over Lucic and actually makes him quite a good fit on a 4th line. Both brutally overpaid but I prefer Eriksson based on defensive ability. Though I think at the end of the day the play with Lucic is to bite the bullet for the season and eventually buy him out with a compliance buyout that I’m pretty certain will be part of the next cba.

  138. YKOil says:

    SwedishPoster: … I think at the end of the day the play with Lucic is to bite the bullet for the season and eventually buy him out with a compliance buyout that I’m pretty certain will be part of the next cba.

    Fair number of teams have that hope. Be horrible to need to sign an impact FA that off-season though – lots of Cap space will be floating around.

  139. silasbengtsson says:

    JimmyV1965,

    Eriksson is still a quality defensive forward even when he’s not scoring. He can also make and take a normal pass. Both are qualities Milan doesn’t have anymore. Eriksson > Lucic

  140. Wilde says:

    Maoriduvpoojt: No one is talking about Starrett.I heard he let one or two weak ones in.How did Skinner look?

    Curious that Wells wasn’t dressed, seems to have had superior results to Skinner this season….

    I know nothing about this goaltending thing.

    pts2pndr: At the NHL level I saw him used as a turnstile on more than three occasions for goals. I did not see any stretch passes and he appeared slow in hitting the open man on breakouts. I think he could be a top four defensemen with some seasoning on the third pairing. My question is who sits or gets traded to make a spot open for him. Thinking he is ready for second pairing is in my opinion a huge mistake.

    I think his NHL story is easily told – killed it on the third pairing, then was elevated to Larsson’s minutes (jesus christ) and the results were reasonably poor in that second stanza. Any specific incidences of poor positioning or defending I view through that lens; in particular asking myself what I remember of Darnell Nurse’s 21yo season.

    I don’t think anybody is of the belief that you can just slot him on the second pairing, I know I’m higher on him than most and my position is that he’s an NHL player and could probably be playing 6D on any of the remaining playoff teams with success.

    The thing with him and Lagesson is that Jones gooses Lagesson’s possession numbers, hard, just like he does with everyone else. In my 40+ game sample, every Condors D is better with Jones than without at 5v5*, and every Condors D has their best minutes with Jones. In my view, the chances that Jones becomes a top-4 D (25-30%?) is probably double the odds of Lagesson doing so. Jones is better, younger, and I don’t agree at all that the better passer is Lagesson.

    * this information is included in my profile of Jones here http://petropraxis.blogspot.com/2019/02/caleb-jones-is-bakersfield-condors-mvp.html

    As for who’s to be traded to make room for Jones, I think that by cap motive Russell should be moved and that makes room for Jones secondarily.

  141. YKOil says:

    Also, SIGNS, hands down would make my top-100 songs list. Given how many Leonard Cohen, Tragically Hip and Supertramp songs make my list that actually means something.

  142. OriginalPouzar says:

    Big day of hockey today:

    Canada opens its World Championships this morning vs. Finland

    Guelph in game 5 of the OHL championships (tied at 2)

    Condors look to even up the series with the Gulls at 2 after a huge comeback win

    Oh ya, Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals!

  143. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wilde: I know nothing about this goaltending thing.

    I think his NHL story is easily told – killed it on the third pairing, then was elevated to Larsson’s minutes (jesus christ) and the results were reasonably poor in that second stanza. Any specific incidences of poor positioning or defending I view through that lens; in particular asking myself what I remember of Darnell Nurse’s 21yo season.

    I don’t think anybody is of the belief that you can just slot him on the second pairing, I know I’m higher on him than most and my position is that he’s an NHL player and could probably be playing 6D on any of the remaining playoff teams with success.

    The thing with him and Lagesson is that Jones gooses Lagesson’s possession numbers, hard, just like he does with everyone else. In my 40+ game sample, every Condors D is better with Jones than without at 5v5*, and every Condors D has their best minutes with Jones. In my view, the chances that Jones becomes a top-4 D (25-30%?) is probably double the odds of Lagesson doing so. Jones is better, younger, and I don’t agree at all that the better passer is Lagesson.

    * this information is included in my profile of Jones here http://petropraxis.blogspot.com/2019/02/caleb-jones-is-bakersfield-condors-mvp.html

    As for who’s to be traded to make room for Jones, I think that by cap motive Russell should be moved and that makes room for Jones secondarily.

    Its fairly clear that Russell isn’t a legit 2RD, however he is the incumbent and, assuming he is moved and, as you say, noone wants to slot Jones in as 2RD but on the 3rd pairing – giving the foregoing, once Russell is moved, who do you see playing 2RD?
    Sekera? Benning?

  144. rickithebear says:

    Got out of hospital on Tuesday.
    Good to be back home!

    Regular season GA rank:
    Boston #4
    Car #6
    STL #7
    SJS #21
    VGK #10 became the 5th team that had cup core in last 15 years to have extenuating circumstance cost them an outcome of a series and the final 4.
    The last was the 16-17 edmonrton oilers.
    2 clear goalie interference not called.

    Regular season GF rank
    SJS #3
    Bos #11
    STL #15
    Car #16

    Holland: interesting

    Our current roster is far worse than what we had in place the day Mctavish was relieved of his duties as GM.

    PC only great move was the Larsson trade.
    A top 5 cup core Dman for allways injured top 60 forward.
    With one strong season out of every 4.

    Enjoy your Holliday LT!

    Me I am trying to figure how I can swing the 180 day world cruise with family that hits 95 ports.
    That is S America, Antarctica, East Pacific of Central and North America, Asia, and central/ South Africa driven.

    Then if still around, another 180 day world cruise that covers the rest of the world. Caribbean, Central America, South Pacific, Australia, Indonesia, Middle East, mediterainian, North Africa, encircles Europe, Baltic, Scandinavia, British Isles, Eastearn seaward portions of Noth America.

    360 days, 190 different ports, in a 2 year period.
    About 70,000 Cdn x 5

    They kids still spend half of the school year with their friends each year and still participate in favourite sports and tournament cycles both years.

    My wife and I are still discussing it!
    225K easily covered by Salary and pension money that releases in Oct. from jobs before I was 30.

    Been a tough 12 months for her carrying the whole family!
    Amazing person!

  145. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: Its fairly clear that Russell isn’ta legit 2RD, however he is the incumbent and, assuming he is moved and, as you say, noone wants to slot Jones in as 2RD but on the 3rd pairing – giving the foregoing, once Russell is moved, who do you see playing 2RD?
    Sekera?Benning?

    Russell + 3rd round pick to Florida for Pysyk. Pysyk becomes the stop gap 2RD.

    I’d prefer to keep Benning for now, but TVR got a 2nd (PIT) in trade at the same stage in his career and Benning appears to be the better player, so that’s always a possibility too.

  146. ArmchairGM says:

    rickithebear: Got out of hospital on Tuesday.
    Good to be back home!

    That’s great news! Godspeed, Ricki.

  147. Bling says:

    rickithebear,

    Ricki!!

    There is something darkly hilarious about a man combatting a serious illness who is planning a cruise around the world stopping by to remind us that Larsson is a top 60 HD defender.

    This guy loves high danger defense! 🙂

    And Ricki, Taylor Hall’s one good season in four was an MVP season, so… 🙂

    Truly Rick, your posts have changed the way I watch the game and are/were a joy. Enjoy these days, sir. Thanks for the update and if you have time, stop by to give us your thoughts on Holland’s work over the summer.

  148. gimme shelter says:

    I go on other sites to check transactions around the league. What is happening right now is other teams are signing FA”s out of the European leagues, Why is not Edmonton doing the same? We need to make up our talent gap from the top 4 and make progress. The draft and develop takes a long time. Are these Fa”s sure things, NO! We are a helicopter team with no wings. Europeans are cheap and ready to go. Yes, they might need time in the minors but not as long as a 20 yr old.

  149. Bling says:

    Despite the injury problems, Bear has put together a strong AHL candidate statistically and from accounts has firmed up a bit defensively.

    Cap-wise, it might not be possible to keep Nurse and Larsson two seasons from now.

    Is that an impetus to keep some of these young D?

    Jones is ready to play now. Lagesson, too, perhaps as a 7. The season after, Bouchard could be top 4 ready. That is a lot of young D to incorporate, but it might be doable.

  150. Lowetide says:

    rickithebear:
    Got out of hospital on Tuesday.
    Good to be back home!

    Regular season GA rank:
    Boston #4
    Car #6
    STL #7
    SJS #21
    VGK #10 became the 5th team that had cup core in last 15 years to have extenuating circumstance cost them an outcome of a series and the final 4.
    The last was the 16-17 edmonrton oilers.
    2 clear goalie interference not called.

    Regular season GF rank
    SJS #3
    Bos #11
    STL #15
    Car #16

    Holland: interesting

    Our current roster is far worse than what we had in place the day Mctavish was relieved of his duties as GM.

    PC only great move was the Larsson trade.
    A top 5 cup core Dman for allways injured top 60 forward.
    With one strong season out of every 4.

    Enjoy your Holliday LT!

    Me I am trying to figure how I can swing the 180 day world cruise with family that hits 95 ports.
    That is S America, Antarctica, East Pacific of Central and North America, Asia, and central/ South Africa driven.

    Then if still around, another 180 day world cruise that covers the rest of the world. Caribbean, Central America, South Pacific, Australia, Indonesia, Middle East, mediterainian, North Africa, encircles Europe, Baltic, Scandinavia, British Isles, Eastearn seaward portions of Noth America.

    360 days, 190 different ports, in a 2 year period.
    About 70,000 Cdn x 5

    They kids still spend half of the school year with their friends each year and still participate in favourite sports and tournament cycles both years.

    My wife and I are still discussing it!
    225K easily covered by Salary and pension money that releases in Oct. from jobs before I was 30.

    Been a tough 12 months for her carrying the whole family!
    Amazing person!

    You are a rock, Ricki. Thanks for updating and love your plans.

  151. Wilde says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    outside acquisition

  152. Wilde says:

    rickithebear,

    bless you ricki =]

  153. barry.moore23 says:

    rickithebear,

    Ricki,
    Great news. Best wishes, my friend that I don’t really know 😊

  154. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    who: Would you trade him for Ericksonstraight up?

    – I’m sure they look at this: but not sure if the 1 year less term is worth the 4 years age curve.

    – Would he hard to criticize either team for trying it, but I think Lucic has more “cache”

    – At best a lateral move, and I think the small chance Lucic rebounds is greater than Erikson’s

    – This would be change for changes sake, I guess why not:

    https://www.straight.com/news/1214726/vancouver-canucks-scratched-loui-eriksson-what-does-it-mean

  155. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    rickithebear,

    Glad to hear you’re home again with your loved ones.

    Am also interested to hear your take on Holland and what he might do/does in time (and maybe some tales of your impressive cruises as well).

  156. condormcdavis says:

    Andy Dufresne,

    If they win the cup, none of that really matters.

    I don’t think they brought him in for a long term.

  157. russ99 says:

    rickithebear,

    Great to hear you’re back home, have a blast on your cruises!

  158. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: Russell + 3rd round pick to Florida for Pysyk. Pysyk becomes the stop gap 2RD.

    I’d prefer to keep Benning for now, but TVR got a 2nd (PIT) in trade at the same stage in his career and Benning appears to be the better player, so that’s always a possibility too.

    I’m not against that Pysk move – not sure if Pysk is a true 2RD but I’d need to do more research on him.

    $1.3M savings for this year and $4M savings for next year.

  159. Pouzar says:

    rickithebear,

    Welcome back RTB

  160. vinotintazo says:

    rickithebear,

    All the best Ricki!

  161. PinkSocks says:

    rickithebear:
    Got out of hospital on Tuesday.

    Great to see you here again Ricki and thrilled to hear that you are out of the hospital. Best Wishes.

  162. stephen sheps says:

    rickithebear,

    Welcome back. and most importantly welcome home. Thrilled to see/read that you’re back with your family and making new plans.

  163. bendelson says:

    Good to hear from you RTB… best wishes on the family travel plans. Your gang must be very excited!

  164. Bag of Pucks says:

    Glovjuice: A current dynasty is two in succession or 3 in 5-6 years. Not three in a row – it hasn’t even happened.

    It’s funny how the definition of that term has changed over the years.

    It used to be 3 consecutive titles minimum than 4 in 5 years qualified with the Oilers, then 3 in 4 years with the Patriots, then 3 in 6 years with the Hawks, and some even had the temerity to call the Penguins a dynasty for simply repeating in consecutive years.

    Dynasties should be rare. They should go back to 3 years consecutive as the minimum. That confirms true dominance imo.

  165. Bag of Pucks says:

    rickithebear,

    Way to ‘box out’ Ricki! Adversity came into your scoring area and you gave it a two handed taste of the composite.

  166. Pandaup says:

    RTB. Iconic on this site. Great to hear from you. Good travels.

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