The 2019 Draft

Ken Holland’s first draft as Edmonton Oilers general manager is 41 days away. There’s a great prospect at No. 8 and the second-round pick could be a better player than Ryan McLeod. Question: How many forwards?

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group.INSANE NEW OFFER IS HERE!

  • New Lowetide: How the U18’s increased the draft pool and gifted the Edmonton Oilers with multiple options at the 2019 draft
  • Lowetide: An offseason plan for Ken Holland to remodel the Oilers roster.
  • Jonathan Willis: Which Condors made a good first impression on Oilers GM Ken Holland?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland steadfast that buck stops with him as new Oilers GM.
  • Eric Duhatschek: Why any talk of Ken Holland being yesterday’s man should be put to rest.
  • Lowetide: How will Ken Holland proceed in Year 1 as Oilers general manager?
  • Jonathan Willis: What does the arrival of Ken Holland mean for the Oilers coaching search?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Prioritizing the roster issues that await Ken Holland in Edmonton.
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s Bakersfield production line: Elevating Jones and how long will success take?
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s procurement list for his rumored move to Edmonton will include front-office personnel
  • Jonathan Willis: A Milan Lucic trade is at the top of the to-do list for the Oilers’ next GM.
  • Lowetide: Should Oilers practice more patience in adding Evan Bouchard to the roster?
  • Jonathan Willis: Is Ken Holland yesterday’s man or the ideal GM candidate for the Oilers?
  • Lowetide: Jesse Puljujarvi and his uncertain future with the Oilers
  • Lowetide: ‘I see something special’: Are Oilers prepared to make Caleb Jones a fixture on the roster next season?
  • Jonathan Willis: Gritty comeback performance sends Edmonton’s farm team to the second round of the AHL playoffs.
  • Lowetide: Dylan Cozens might be ideal fit for Oilers at No. 8 overall in the 2019 draft
  • New Lowetide: Is this the season the Oilers take the plunge and draft a USHL player in the first round?
  • Lowetide: Red Wings front office shuffle could impact Oilers’ future.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ten prospects likely to be available when the Oilers make their first-round pick

LOWETIDE TOP 100 FOR 2019

Edmonton’s first pick will likely come from this group. Dach, Cozens, Zegras, Caufield and Krebs are all excellent candidates. If Bowen Byram falls to (say) No. 5, I could see the Oilers trading up to get him. Otherwise, it’s a forward.

I do think Holland’s presence increases the chances Edmonton takes a USHL player. The Oilers are traditionally prefer a WHL player all things being equal, but the U18’s in April pushed the American kids up the pop charts.

My lists rely on numbers, offensive potential, foot speed and some kind insight from scouts. I’m using Christian Roatis via Rob Vollman this year (here). I nick the USHL a little, and give Swedish defensemen a push offensively (call it the Klefbom rule). If the Oilers had a second pick in the first round, I’d love to see Cam York chosen.

Several posters have mentioned my ranking of Philip Tomasino. Craig Button has him No. 38 (here) but others have him higher. Posters want to know why I don’t have him higher. Answer: My list isn’t meant to reflect or borrow from other lists. If you have found someone who has shown you Tomasino is the No. 14 player in the draft, then they’ve reached that conclusion for their reasons. Why would I steal their work? My list is based mostly on math. Tomasino’s math puts him at No. 23, I could put him ahead of Podkolzin but the Russian had such a weird season I’m not prepared to move him below No. 21.

Reminder: If my list is different than another list, check the math. I’m not mining the same information, and I’m certainly not going to be assessing it in the same way. For instance, I remain convinced the OHL is the best league, but the gap between the OHL, WHL and QMJHL in specific years probably changes markedly. I think adjustments can be made even when using traditional NHLE numbers.

This is the group of players Edmonton should have as a pool for the second round. Blake Murray scored 30 goals in the OHL, is a July 2001, and has size and speed. There’s a nice group in this 30-50 area, the Oilers should get another good player. By the time we get to Edmonton (No. 38), I imagine my list will have some lag, with as many as six or seven names remaining from my top 40. Why? My rank relies heavily on math. Moritz Seider isn’t in my top 40, while Craig Button’s latest mock (here) has him inside the top 30.

Last season was the first I recall where my rankings for the first three rounds anticipated the Oilers list (or at least their picks). I had Evan Bouchard No. 8 (Edmonton chose him No. 10), Ryan McLeod No. 25 (he went No. 40) and Olivier Rodrigue No. 60 (No. 62). My 2018 list is here.

The 2015 draft was interesting. So much talent, the Oilers could have sustained themselves for a long time if not for myriad trades. I had McDavid No. 1, Ethan Bear No. 38 and John Marino No. 112, but no Caleb Jones. The USHL was a tough league to measure then it’s a little easier now. My 2015 list is here.

I use NHLE as a strong guiding light. I also use scouting reports from trusted sources and publications. I punish average to poor foot speed liberally. My list rewards offense heavily, and the most gifted offensive players will be at the top. Players with a range of skills usually do well, but there is a fine line between a future top-six forward and a tweener (what’s Albin Grewe gonna do?)

The list does not give high numbers to players who have a lot of their value tied up in the defensive side of the game. Goalies are graded (almost exclusively) by save percentage, although success over more than one season has terrific value.

Edmonton’s third selection is No. 85, but my list is now well into the ‘touch’ players who may not get drafted. If you look at Bob McKenzie’s list, you’ll notice a number of prospects who don’t appear on my list. McKenzie’s mid-season list ranked Kaedan Korczak No. 37, he doesn’t make my top 100.

The Oilers have been drafting closer to my list in recent times. A high water mark came in 2017 when the team chose my No. 11 ranked player (Kailer Yamamoto) at No. 22. That selection came five years after the team chose Mitch Moroz in the second round. Now, the entire industry has improved but it’s progress. Hopefully the team will have an analytics department by next spring.

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79 Responses to "The 2019 Draft"

  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    Holland has mentioned at least 2 or 3 times that he was over at the Under 18s scouting and knows the USHL very well. Probably a good year to get a GM that has a high level of knowledge of that league given the elite draft eligible talent it is currently producing.

  2. Brantford Boy says:

    Thanks for the post LT, I enjoy (your) lists… and thanks for the (here) links… makes it easier to find the information you want to share…

    I also agree with Holland’s biased towards USHL, so Caufield come on down…

  3. pts2pndr says:

    I think it will be very interesting to see where Byram gets drafted. He is a bonafide pick at number three but could the allure of the very offensive forwards sway some teams to pass on him. If so it could get very interesting. I am going to say the Oilers draft forwards in the first three rounds. After that it will be a crap shoot. If by some stretch Byram is available at eight they should run to the podium smiling. Once again LT thanks for all you do.

  4. leadfarmer says:

    pts2pndr,

    He doesn’t fall past Detroit

  5. Paulie says:

    Genuinely curious: if Byram falls to #5, why trade another asset to move up in the draft when we’re already stocked at LD? Given that defensemen take longer to develop, wouldn’t it make sense to go with a skilled forward? Or is the talent gap between Byram and the likely available forwards so great that he’s the right pick?

  6. Lowetide says:

    Paulie:
    Genuinely curious: if Byram falls to #5, why trade another asset to move up in the draft when we’re already stocked at LD? Given that defensemen take longer to develop, wouldn’t it make sense to go with a skilled forward? Or is the talent gap between Byram and the likely available forwards so great that he’s the right pick?

    Byram is a special player. I think he’s going to be an impact defenseman.

  7. leeinvan says:

    Great info.

    I’m guessing the first 2 rounds for the Oiler’s will be forwards.

    #8 is a good pick, they will get a solid NHL forward in that group.

    Who knows about the top D man, if a team ahead of the Oiler’s picks someone ranked 10-15 and the other teams ahead of them pass on a D man, then the Oiler’s plans will change. If that happens, I can see the Oilers bringing up two D next year from the farm and trading a couple of Oiler D men for forwards.

    Goin to be an interesting season next season. If the D is healthy (which it rarely is) the Oiler’s will be ok, not great, that will haft to wait another season or so but much better.

  8. Reja says:

    Brantford Boy:
    Thanks for the post LT, I enjoy (your) lists… and thanks for the (here) links… makes it easier to find the information you want to share…

    I also agree with Holland’s biased towards USHL, so Caufield come on down…

    OriginalPouzar:
    Holland has mentioned at least 2 or 3 times that he was over at the Under 18s scouting and knows the USHL very well.Probably a good year to get a GM that has a high level of knowledge of that league given the elite draft eligible talent it is currently producing.

    The the No 8 pick will hold great value at the draft certain teams will be horny for one of that great crop of USHL players. I felt after Pete was fired that Lucic would want out and would help market himself to some degree to aide the Oilers. Lucic bonus is payed I believe on July 1st I wonder if it’s possible where Lucic and the No 8 are dealt but the Oilers eat the bonus money this year.

  9. Andy Dufresne says:

    The Detroit Red Wings selected 10 players in seven rounds of the 2018 NHL Entry Draft.

    Ken Holland very transparent on NBCS saying they needed D but couldn’t pass up two high-skilled forwards in Zadina and Veleno

    Here’s who they selected:

    6th overall — Filip Zadina (LW)
    As a winger known for high-powered goal scoring in Canada’s Quebec junior league, Zadina was expected to go as high as 3rd overall. However, he fell down a few spots. The Red Wings couldn’t pass on him, even though analysts expected them to take a defenseman.

    30th overall — Joe Veleno (C)
    He was expected to be selected in the top 15 on Friday night but fell all the way to 30th where, again, the Red Wings could not resist taking a top-rated forward.

    33rd overall — Jonatan Berggren (RW)
    He scored 10 points in seven games for Sweden at the 2018 World Junior Championship.

    36th overall — Jared McIsaac (D)
    The Red Wings addressed their defensive need in the 2nd round. McIaac has played the past two seasons with the Halifax Mooseheads — he was Zadina’s teammate this past season. He lead all defensemen on the team with 47 points in 65 games played.

    67th overall — Alec Regula (D)
    Regula is from West Bloomfield. The Metro Detroit native spent the past season with the OHL’s Londong Knights. He is 6-foot-3 inches.

    81st overall — Seth Barton (D)
    Barton was the third and final defenseman selected by the Red Wings. He has spent the past two seasons playing junior hockey for the Trail Smoke Eaters of the British Columbia Hockey League. He had 33 points in 49 games played this past season.

    84th overall — Jesper Eliasson (G)
    At 18, Eliasson already has played at high levels in Sweden. He has been playing with Växjö Lakers HC J20 of the J20 SuperElit league, Sweden’s top junior hockey league.

    98th overall — Ryan O’Reilly (RW)
    No, not the same Ryan O’Reilly, obviously. This Ryan O’Reilly is an 18-year-old from Texas who scored 21 goals this past season for the Madison Capitals of the USHL.

    160th overall — Victor Brattstrom (G)
    The Red Wings took another goalie in the 6th round, also from Sweden. Brattstrom is 6-foot-4 inches.

    191st overall — Otto Kivenmäki (C)
    He’s from Finland. He’s just 5 feet 8 inches tall and 137 pounds, according to Elite Prospects. The diminutive forward, however, has been putting up a point-per-game in Finland’s junior leagues.

    I could envision a “similar PATTERN” for the Oilers this year:

    First Round: Two skill forwards from the CHL
    Early Second Round: Skill Right winger from Sweden
    Second, Third and Fourth Rounds: Three Defensemen from the CHL (One each from the WHL, OHL, and the Q) and a Swedish Goalie
    Late Rounds: USHL Winger, Another Swedish Goalie, Diminutive Finish Center

    They needed D but took two skilled forwards early…. SO BPA.

    Emphasis on Skill, Speed and Scoring in Early Rounds (and throughout really), with both Forwards and D.

    Interesting to note Holland had stockpiled 8 picks in the top 100. Obviously values draft and develop.

  10. dulock says:

    Moritz Seider really intrigues me as he could go almost anywhere. A lot of lists have him in the first round but because he’s German and playing in the DEL he could drop and be taken almost anywhere. I think he’d be a great pick with the Oilers 2nd round pick if he’s still there.

  11. Jethro Tull says:

    https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/qa-dallas-eakins-lessons-learned-oilers-coaching-ahl/

    If anybody has any doubt that the OBC do not influence how this team is run, read the article above. I know it’s Spector, but Eakins admits his culpability and reveals the “we don’t do that here” mentality of the Oilers.

  12. godot10 says:

    leadfarmer:
    pts2pndr,

    He doesn’t fall past Detroit

    Detroit probably moves up to get him, swapping picks with Colorado if Chicago doesn’t take him.

    Colorado can auction #4 if Byram is there.

  13. Oil2Oilers says:

    Thanks LT you are my favorite draft expert.

    I appreciate your methodology, your openness on the methodology and biases. Also you provide more updates on the process than any other expert.

  14. Nit64 says:

    Jethro Tull:
    https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/qa-dallas-eakins-lessons-learned-oilers-coaching-ahl/

    If anybody has any doubt that the OBC do not influence how this team is run, read the article above. I know it’s Spector, but Eakins admits his culpability and reveals the “we don’t do that here” mentality of the Oilers.

    For anyone who follows that link: that whole paragraph and the following one are spot-on. Change has to be top to bottom and incremental. Mact/eakins couldn’t. Chia/tmac didn’t.

  15. godot10 says:

    Brantford Boy:
    Thanks for the post LT, I enjoy (your) lists… and thanks for the (here) links… makes it easier to find the information you want to share…

    I also agree with Holland’s biased towards USHL, so Caufield come on down…

    Caufield is overrated. #TeamnotCaufield (nor Zegras)

    Byram, Cozens, Krebs

  16. JimmyV1965 says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    The Detroit Red Wings selected 10 players in seven rounds of the 2018 NHL Entry Draft.

    Ken Holland very transparent on NBCS saying they needed D but couldn’t pass up two high-skilled forwards in Zadina and Veleno

    Here’s who they selected:

    6th overall — Filip Zadina (LW)
    As a winger known for high-powered goal scoring in Canada’s Quebec junior league, Zadina was expected to go as high as 3rd overall. However, he fell down a few spots. The Red Wings couldn’t pass on him, even though analysts expected them to take a defenseman.

    30th overall — Joe Veleno (C)
    He was expected to be selected in the top 15 on Friday night but fell all the way to 30th where, again, the Red Wings could not resist taking a top-rated forward.

    33rd overall — Jonatan Berggren (RW)
    He scored 10 points in seven games for Sweden at the 2018 World Junior Championship.

    36th overall — Jared McIsaac (D)
    The Red Wings addressed their defensive need in the 2nd round. McIaac has played the past two seasons with the Halifax Mooseheads — he was Zadina’s teammate this past season. He lead all defensemen on the team with 47 points in 65 games played.

    67th overall — Alec Regula (D)
    Regula is from West Bloomfield. The Metro Detroit native spent the past season with the OHL’s Londong Knights. He is 6-foot-3 inches.

    81st overall — Seth Barton (D)
    Barton was the third and final defenseman selected by the Red Wings. He has spent the past two seasons playing junior hockey for the Trail Smoke Eaters of the British Columbia Hockey League. He had 33 points in 49 games played this past season.

    84th overall — Jesper Eliasson (G)
    At 18, Eliasson already has played at high levels in Sweden. He has been playing with Växjö Lakers HC J20 of the J20 SuperElit league, Sweden’s top junior hockey league.

    98th overall — Ryan O’Reilly (RW)
    No, not the same Ryan O’Reilly, obviously. This Ryan O’Reilly is an 18-year-old from Texas who scored 21 goals this past season for the Madison Capitals of the USHL.

    160th overall — Victor Brattstrom (G)
    The Red Wings took another goalie in the 6th round, also from Sweden. Brattstrom is 6-foot-4 inches.

    191st overall — Otto Kivenmäki (C)
    He’s from Finland. He’s just 5 feet 8 inches tall and 137 pounds, according to Elite Prospects. The diminutive forward, however, has been putting up a point-per-game in Finland’s junior leagues.

    I could envision a “similar PATTERN” for the Oilers this year:

    First Round: Two skill forwards from the CHL
    Early Second Round:Skill Right winger from Sweden
    Second, Third and Fourth Rounds: Three Defensemen from the CHL (One each from the WHL, OHL, and the Q) and a Swedish Goalie
    Late Rounds: USHL Winger, Another Swedish Goalie, Diminutive Finish Center

    They needed D but took two skilled forwards early…. SO BPA.

    Emphasis on Skill, Speed and Scoring in Early Rounds (and throughout really), with both Forwards and D.

    Interesting to note Holland had stockpiled 8 picks in the top 100. Obviously values draft and develop.

    Andy Dufresne:
    The Detroit Red Wings selected 10 players in seven rounds of the 2018 NHL Entry Draft.

    Ken Holland very transparent on NBCS saying they needed D but couldn’t pass up two high-skilled forwards in Zadina and Veleno

    Here’s who they selected:

    6th overall — Filip Zadina (LW)
    As a winger known for high-powered goal scoring in Canada’s Quebec junior league, Zadina was expected to go as high as 3rd overall. However, he fell down a few spots. The Red Wings couldn’t pass on him, even though analysts expected them to take a defenseman.

    30th overall — Joe Veleno (C)
    He was expected to be selected in the top 15 on Friday night but fell all the way to 30th where, again, the Red Wings could not resist taking a top-rated forward.

    33rd overall — Jonatan Berggren (RW)
    He scored 10 points in seven games for Sweden at the 2018 World Junior Championship.

    36th overall — Jared McIsaac (D)
    The Red Wings addressed their defensive need in the 2nd round. McIaac has played the past two seasons with the Halifax Mooseheads — he was Zadina’s teammate this past season. He lead all defensemen on the team with 47 points in 65 games played.

    67th overall — Alec Regula (D)
    Regula is from West Bloomfield. The Metro Detroit native spent the past season with the OHL’s Londong Knights. He is 6-foot-3 inches.

    81st overall — Seth Barton (D)
    Barton was the third and final defenseman selected by the Red Wings. He has spent the past two seasons playing junior hockey for the Trail Smoke Eaters of the British Columbia Hockey League. He had 33 points in 49 games played this past season.

    84th overall — Jesper Eliasson (G)
    At 18, Eliasson already has played at high levels in Sweden. He has been playing with Växjö Lakers HC J20 of the J20 SuperElit league, Sweden’s top junior hockey league.

    98th overall — Ryan O’Reilly (RW)
    No, not the same Ryan O’Reilly, obviously. This Ryan O’Reilly is an 18-year-old from Texas who scored 21 goals this past season for the Madison Capitals of the USHL.

    160th overall — Victor Brattstrom (G)
    The Red Wings took another goalie in the 6th round, also from Sweden. Brattstrom is 6-foot-4 inches.

    191st overall — Otto Kivenmäki (C)
    He’s from Finland. He’s just 5 feet 8 inches tall and 137 pounds, according to Elite Prospects. The diminutive forward, however, has been putting up a point-per-game in Finland’s junior leagues.

    I could envision a “similar PATTERN” for the Oilers this year:

    First Round: Two skill forwards from the CHL
    Early Second Round:Skill Right winger from Sweden
    Second, Third and Fourth Rounds: Three Defensemen from the CHL (One each from the WHL, OHL, and the Q) and a Swedish Goalie
    Late Rounds: USHL Winger, Another Swedish Goalie, Diminutive Finish Center

    They needed D but took two skilled forwards early…. SO BPA.

    Emphasis on Skill, Speed and Scoring in Early Rounds (and throughout really), with both Forwards and D.

    Interesting to note Holland had stockpiled 8 picks in the top 100. Obviously values draft and develop.

    He set up Stevie Y very nicely with that draft. Massive massive draft for the Wings last year.

  17. David says:

    godot10: Caufield is overrated. #TeamnotCaufield (nor Zegras)

    Byram, Cozens, Krebs

    The guy who has the all time USNTDP goal record is overrated?

  18. Louis Levasseur says:

    I wonder what kind of Confidentiality Holland has to maintain with regard to his knowledge of the Detroit’s draft list? He would obviously know how they have ranked prospects, what position they are targeting, etc. That potentially would be very valuable information for the Oilers, since Detroit is only 2 spots higher.

  19. defmn says:

    Louis Levasseur:
    I wonder what kind of Confidentiality Holland has to maintain with regard to his knowledge of the Detroit’s draft list?He would obviously know how they have ranked prospects, what position they are targeting, etc.That potentially would be very valuable information for the Oilers, since Detroit is only 2 spots higher.

    Not as much as if Detroit was picking two spots later. 😉

  20. oilersfan says:

    Jethro Tull,

    Of course the OBC has influence… when Eakins was here Mctavishh was the GM and Lowe was the POHO.

    Eakins wouldn’t know what happened under the Chiarelli regime any more than you or I as he was working for Anaheim/San diego the entire time

  21. New Improved Darkness says:

    Terry Jones:

    “Certainly I’d like to pear that list down to four or six and then to interview those four or six and eventually work my way to the next head coach of the Oilers. Hopefully, I’ll start the interview process in the coming week.”

    I think we’ve hereby uncovered the original dyslexic sin.

  22. godot10 says:

    David: The guy who has the all time USNTDP goal record is overrated?

    Godot likes going out on an island. It is my shtick.

  23. OriginalPouzar says:

    Holland’s thoughts on the prospect d-men from a short sample of views (love his words on Lagesson):

    https://edmontonsun.com/sports/hockey/nhl/edmonton-oilers/jones-ken-holland-off-to-evaluate-edmonton-oilers-prospects

    “Obviously Evan Bouchard is here. I thought as the game wore on and the team got behind in the third period, coach Jay Woodcroft played Bouchard almost every second shift. He can generate offence from the back end and you could see his confidence grow as he was getting out there more and more. I saw a lot of him in junior last year. I know he’s a real good prospect.

    It was my first look at Ethan Bear. I thought he played well. He got hurt in the third period but he played well. Caleb Jones played well. He’s a mobile puck-moving defenseman and you could see what he has to offer.

    I liked William Lagesson. He’s a good player. He’s maybe the most important defenceman on the team down here. He’s a 23-year-old. He’s at a good age. That’s young enough to have the upside yet old enough to have some experience.”

  24. Jethro Tull says:

    oilersfan:
    Jethro Tull,

    Of course the OBC has influence… when Eakins was here Mctavishh was the GM and Lowe was the POHO.

    Eakins wouldn’t know what happened under the Chiarelli regime any more than you or I as he was working for Anaheim/San diego the entire time

    Yeah, I think you’re thinking a little too literally.

    Eakins is asking “if an organization changes everything to instigate change and nothing changes, what then?”

  25. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Thanks LT!
    Trying to recall from an earlier post it sounded like one of the skill 5-15 range forwards was thinking of college first but I can’t find it…
    Does anyone remember??

  26. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    The other Ken:
    If Holland trusts Hitch, Hitch should be able to provide critical information on which players to trade & re-sign. Hitch doesn’t really have a dog in the fight and I would think after his time coaching them he has a pretty good sense of who to keep and who to let sail.

  27. OilersDynasty says:

    Really interesting youtube video on the decisions that lead to where Detroit is today:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9JIkZAxDVPc

  28. Nit64 says:

    Jethro Tull: Yeah, I think you’re thinking a little too literally.

    Eakins is asking “if an organization changes everything to instigate change and nothing changes, what then?”

    Change it right. Not never or all at once. Holland said he’s going to have to know how they could be so bad so long.

  29. Ben says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick:
    The other Ken:
    If Holland trusts Hitch, Hitch should be able to provide critical information on which players to trade & re-sign. Hitch doesn’t really have a dog in the fight and I would think after his time coaching them he has a pretty good sense of who to keep and who to let sail.

    Hitch was apparently instrumental in the Manning trade so don’t count your chickens, all ye who tread here.

  30. leadfarmer says:

    David: The guy who has the all time USNTDP goal record is overrated?

    Yeah who needs goals.
    I would find it very hard to pass on Caufield unless Zegras, Turcotte are still on board
    -50 in +/- department is pretty darn impressive. Yes its a team stat but for a top prospect that is a crazy number

  31. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Ben: GordieHoweHatTrick:
    The other Ken:
    If Holland trusts Hitch, Hitch should be able to provide critical information on which players to trade & re-sign. Hitch doesn’t really have a dog in the fight and I would think after his time coaching them he has a pretty good sense of who to keep and who to let sail.

    Hitch was apparently instrumental in the Manning trade so don’t count your chickens, all ye who tread here.

    Yeesh. I hope not!
    Didn’t Chia say they had been eyeing Manning for a while (like last year, before Htich came in)…??
    Chia probably thought it would be a great way to build culture in the dressing room since Manning and the Captain get on so well…
    So MANY MANY HORRIBLE moves. For the sake of hockey, I hope he never works in hockey again.

  32. leadfarmer says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick:
    The other Ken:
    If Holland trusts Hitch, Hitch should be able to provide critical information on which players to trade & re-sign. Hitch doesn’t really have a dog in the fight and I would think after his time coaching them he has a pretty good sense of who to keep and who to let sail.

    Hitch is an old relic and belongs in a museum. I would want him to tell me the players he likes just so I could cross them off my list

  33. OriginalPouzar says:

    No surprise at all but Sekera led Slovakia in ice time in their victory over the favoured (and stacked) Americans.

  34. Wilde says:

    OriginalPouzar: He’s maybe the most important defenceman on the team down here

    I will die on this hill

  35. Bag of Pucks says:

    Nit64: For anyone who follows that link: that whole paragraph and the following one are spot-on. Change has to be top to bottom and incremental. Mact/eakins couldn’t. Chia/tmac didn’t.

    It seems time has given Eakins some much needed perspective. Hard to equate the relative zen of this perspective with the guy who was willing to profit from Krueger getting stabbed in the back. He talks about red flags in the culture. That should’ve been the most obvious one of all.

  36. ArmchairGM says:

    I realize the odds are somewhere between slim and none, but my ideal draft would be Turcotte, Dorofeyev and Beecher with the 1st 3 picks.

  37. Jordan says:

    Nit64: Change it right. Not never or all at once. Holland said he’s going to have to knowhow they could be so bad so long.

    When your GM is willing to lose every trade to get the player he wants, it’s not difficult to figure out what happened – Chiarelli was a terrible asset manager who believed that the ends justified the means.

    Couple that with bad pro scouting and you bleed skill and talent for lesser and lesser players.

    We should have known who he was after the Seguin trade. Then the Reinhart Trade. Then the Hall Trade. THen the Eberle trade.

    He is who he’s always been. And the Oilers are here because of it.

  38. LMHF#1 says:

    Jethro Tull:
    https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/qa-dallas-eakins-lessons-learned-oilers-coaching-ahl/

    If anybody has any doubt that the OBC do not influence how this team is run, read the article above. I know it’s Spector, but Eakins admits his culpability and reveals the “we don’t do that here” mentality of the Oilers.

    He still doesn’t say what any of the “that” is…I’m sure he’s right based on everything since and everything that leaks out of the org…but Eakins also still thinks he’s right…which is hilarious. It wasn’t him…it was the pace he tried to implement according to him…both parties were wrong in this instance. I cannot forgive that guy for the hockey players he ruined. It’s one thing to not have people blossom…but to actively ruin and discourage really talented and motivated people is so wrong.

  39. Ben says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    No surprise at all but Sekera led Slovakia in ice time in their victory over the favoured (and stacked) Americans.

    If I had to ascribe one particular deficiency to the current D group, I’d sum it up as “smarts”. So many bad coverage decisions, missed reads, failures to recognize outlets, etc.

    Reggie’s the smartest of the group. Klefbom’s probably the more impactful player, but Reggie’s the guy I want beside Lagesson/Bouchard/Jones or whoever next season, even on his off side.

    I find any talk of buying him out to be completely asinine.

  40. jake70 says:

    Most important quote from the Eakins interview: (referring to his daughter) There’s your free agent pitch right there. 😉

    “She has lived in Toronto, Vancouver, Edmonton, and here in Poway. If you asked her right now where she’d most like to live, she’d want to go back to Edmonton. She loves that snow.

    “It’s funny, as negative as we think that was for those fans, for everyone, she’d go back there in a minute.”

  41. Lowetide says:

    Wilde: I will die on this hill

    Defensemen will break your heart! DO NOT GET ATTACHED TO ONE MORE THAN THE OTHER! I swear to God this is true.

  42. Jaxon says:

    Tomasino is interesting because most of his points are primary points at 5v5. When adjusted for age, he has the 3rd highest projected 5v5 primary points in the draft among North American prospects being Turcotte. He’s first of players who met a certain threshold of 5v5 TOI. His scouting reports speak of a high energy fast player who is very responsible, plus his size is adequate at 5’11, 185lbs. I think he’s very underrated based on both scouting descriptions and math.

  43. Maoriduvpoojt says:

    Lowetide: Byram is a special player. I think he’s going to be an impact defenseman.

    Where would he rank if he had been in last years’ draft; same question regarding Dahlin, if he were in this years’ draft?

  44. godot10 says:

    Bag of Pucks: It seems time has given Eakins some much needed perspective. Hard to equate the relative zen of this perspective with the guy who was willing to profit from Krueger getting stabbed in the back. He talks about red flags in the culture. That should’ve been the most obvious one of all.

    Eakins has always talked a good game.

  45. SwedishPoster says:

    Watching Finland vs Slovakia, can’t believe I haven’t thought of how much Kaapo Kakko looks like a young Jaromir Jagr, the stickhandling, the balance, the strength and poise on the puck, the combo of trigger man and playmaking winger, the quick pivots with the puck. Even down to the superhero alliteration name. Man Rangers are getting a good one.

    Also I would definitely want to see where Sekera’s game is at after a fully healthy off season before I buy him out or blow assets to get rid of him. Smart smart player, those guys tend to have better career longevity.

  46. Wilde says:

    Lowetide: Defensemen will break your heart! DO NOT GET ATTACHED TO ONE MORE THAN THE OTHER! I swear to God this is true.

    they’re doing the thing again it’s the russell and sekera thing they’re doing it again the thing is being done again and they’re the ones doing it they won’t stop doing the thing until the thing is done and they’re the ones that did it

  47. Johnny skid says:

    leadfarmer: Hitch is an old relic and belongs in a museum.I would want him to tell me the players he likes just so I could cross them off my list

    nice cheap-shot……way to go.

  48. Bling says:

    Stauffer tweeted:

    “Look at the Best Coaches:
    Kerr-GSW
    Klopp-Liverpool
    Even a Gallant- VGK (we all know they got screwed)

    They all work WITH and not AGAINST their players.
    Their players know they have their backs.
    And they play an assertive, up tempo, offensive style!
    That is today’s Coach”

    —–

    He really wants Nelson to be the coach.

    Same here.

    Tippett is a good coach, but I think Nelson has the potential to be a great coach. We’ve seen a lot of coaches over the years, and Nelson laps the field both as a communicator and as someone who knows how to develop talent.

    Lots of experience now with great coaches — Montgomery and Trotz — plus an AHL championship and a successful stint as coach of the Oilers.

    Here’s hoping he nails his interview!

  49. Doug McLachlan says:

    SwedishPoster,

    Agree on Sekera. Expensive for what he gives you now but happy to play him third pair providing old man experience for Bouchard.

  50. Bling says:

    I keep going back to what Pedersen said initially, about Tippett not being a candidate.

    My take is that he was thinking someone else was the front-runner — and who could that be other than Nelson?

  51. Lowetide says:

    For The Athletic: How the U18’s increased the draft pool and gifted the Edmonton Oilers with multiple options at the 2019 draft.

    https://theathletic.com/973096/2019/05/11/how-the-u18s-increased-the-draft-pool-and-gifted-the-edmonton-oilers-with-multiple-options-at-the-2019-draft/

  52. leadfarmer says:

    Johnny skid,

    Is it a cheap shot if you’ve been saying it before he was hired?

  53. Johnny skid says:

    leadfarmer:
    Johnny skid,

    Is it a cheap shot if you’ve been saying it before he was hired?

    Yes

  54. ArmchairGM says:

    Maoriduvpoojt: Where would he rank if he had been in last years’ draft;same question regarding Dahlin, if he were in this years’ draft?

    Dahlin would be #1 this year, without question. My impression of Byram (note: I haven’t watched him much) is that he would be in the Bouchard/ Smith/ Dobson bracket. I don’t think he’d be in the range of Quinn Hughes.

    My impression is that Byram will be a good defenseman at the NHL level but probably not a surefire #1. The only reason he’s being discussed in the top 3 picks is that he’s the best of a weak group of defenders – and the teams picking high generally need stronger defense.

  55. leadfarmer says:

    ArmchairGM,

    I think byram is definitely a tier higher than that bracket and more of the Heiskanen Makar area
    I would be excstatic to get him and would trade up to do so within reason
    Elite skating elite transition d would be amazing

  56. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja:
    I wonder if it’s possible where Lucic and the No 8 are dealt but the Oilers eat the bonus money this year.

    Nope, can’t do that.

  57. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ben: If I had to ascribe one particular deficiency to the current D group, I’d sum it up as “smarts”. So many bad coverage decisions, missed reads, failures to recognize outlets, etc.

    Reggie’s the smartest of the group. Klefbom’s probably the more impactful player, but Reggie’s the guy I want beside Lagesson/Bouchard/Jones or whoever next season, even on his off side.

    I find any talk of buying him out to be completely asinine.

    Agree with all of this.

    I can understand the premise behind trading Reggie, for value in addition to cap space but I can’t wrap my head around the thought of buying him out. He’s not a negative player, he makes the team better, much better – he’s a bit expensive, sure, but an important part of the team. There is nothing the team could do with the cap savings that makes them better than having Sekera.

    Massive changes to the defence are coming but they are one off-season away.

    Next year each of Lagesson, Bear and Jones lose their waiver exemptions and Bouchard will be in the NHL (or else we’ve got a problem).

  58. El Duderino says:

    leadfarmer: Yeah who needs goals.
    I would find it very hard to pass on Caufield unless Zegras, Turcotte are still on board
    -50 in +/- department is pretty darn impressive.Yes its a team stat but for a top prospect that is a crazy number

    -50 is not that impressive.

  59. slopitch says:

    2 draft and develop leaders (Holland and Gretzky) on this team would be ideal. Its so important for the oilers and other “winter cities” to follow this. Now sort out the pro scouts and analytics departments!

    Bryam falling to 8 would be sick. BPA always!

  60. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar: Agree with all of this.

    I can understand the premise behind trading Reggie, for value in addition to cap space but I can’t wrap my head around the thought of buying him out.He’s not a negative player, he makes the team better, much better – he’s a bit expensive, sure, but an important part of the team.There is nothing the team could do with the cap savings that makes them better than having Sekera.

    Massive changes to the defence are coming but they are one off-season away.

    Next year each of Lagesson, Bear and Jones lose their waiver exemptions and Bouchard will be in the NHL (or else we’ve got a problem).

    I agree with all of this. Sekera is a NHL player when healthy. You don’t buy out NHL quality players.

  61. leadfarmer says:

    defmn: I agree with all of this. Sekera is a NHL player when healthy. You don’t buy out NHL quality players.

    Yeah you don’t buy him out. His buyout plus replacement cost doesn’t give you much cap savings. Either he recovers his previous form and can polish some turds or he doesn’t and he can mentor some kids next year.
    If he doesn’t recover you can trade him with retention in a year when you don’t need him

  62. ArmchairGM says:

    El Duderino: -50 is not that impressive.

    It has made an impression on quite a few people.

  63. ArmchairGM says:

    leadfarmer: Elite skating elite transition d

    This describes Ty Smith perfectly. I’m not seeing a lot of daylight between the two, to be honest.

  64. Gerta Rauss says:

    Reja: I wonder if it’s possible where Lucic and the No 8 are dealt but the Oilers eat the bonus money this year.

    You could deal the number 8 and “future considerations” for X, and on July 2 the futures vest and a Lucic move completes the transaction

    I would not do that myself, the Oilers need to draft in that number 8 slot

    I’m hoping Cozens drops to 8 and the Oilers draft him

  65. El Duderino says:

    ArmchairGM: It has made an impression on quite a few people.

    To clarify the subtlety of the point, -50 is Yak territory. +50 is a hundred point spread.

    =

  66. leadfarmer says:

    ArmchairGM: This describes Ty Smith perfectly. I’m not seeing a lot of daylight between the two, to be honest.

    Ty Smith was + 5 when the top forwards were +10 – +20
    Ty Smith was just under 2/3 ppg in playoffs

    Byram is + 33 when the adjacent top forwards were +10 – +20
    Byram is over ppg in playoffs
    Byram has scored more goals this year than Smith has his entire career
    Byram is a year younger, actually year and 3 months
    Byram is already bigger

    Byram is already better and a year younger. I would trade Bouchard Dobson or Smith for Byram without any question

  67. Scungilli Slushy says:

    ArmchairGM: This describes Ty Smith perfectly. I’m not seeing a lot of daylight between the two, to be honest.

    20 lbs 2 years younger

    Skill trumps all, but it is still a physical contact game and some of the small offensive D are going to struggle with the Ricki box and Smyth boards.

    A true high end top pairing D plays all facets of the game and doesn’t become a sheltered PP specialist or see the most 5v5 when the team is down.

    Few will have the offensive chops of a Karlsson at the NHL level, which also brings up that undersized players tend to get hurt and that can also limit careers as we’re seeing with him.

  68. Lowetide says:

    GDT is up

  69. ArmchairGM says:

    leadfarmer: Ty Smith was + 5 when the top forwards were +10 – +20
    Ty Smith was just under 2/3 ppg in playoffs

    Byram is + 33 when the adjacent top forwards were +10 – +20
    Byram is over ppg in playoffs
    Byram has scored more goals this year than Smith has his entire career
    Byram is a year younger, actually year and 3 months
    Byram is already bigger

    Byram is already better and a year younger.I would trade Bouchard Dobson or Smith for Byram without any question

    Compare their draft years. They aren’t so far apart.

  70. Glovjuice says:

    leadfarmer: Ty Smith was + 5 when the top forwards were +10 – +20
    Ty Smith was just under 2/3 ppg in playoffs

    Byram is + 33 when the adjacent top forwards were +10 – +20
    Byram is over ppg in playoffs
    Byram has scored more goals this year than Smith has his entire career
    Byram is a year younger, actually year and 3 months
    Byram is already bigger

    Byram is already better and a year younger.I would trade Bouchard Dobson or Smith for Byram without any question

    Absolutely, and add to make it happen. He should go 2 behind the Finn with Hughes third.

  71. pts2pndr says:

    Reja:
    The the No 8 pick will hold great value at the draft certain teams will be horny for one of that great crop of USHL players. I felt after Pete was firedthat Lucic would want out and would help market himself to some degree to aide the Oilers.Lucic bonus is payed I believeon July 1stI wonder if it’s possible where Lucic and the No 8 are dealt but the Oilers eat the bonus money this year.

    Possible but stupid with a capital S.

  72. pts2pndr says:

    leadfarmer: Ty Smith was + 5 when the top forwards were +10 – +20
    Ty Smith was just under 2/3 ppg in playoffs

    Byram is + 33 when the adjacent top forwards were +10 – +20
    Byram is over ppg in playoffs
    Byram has scored more goals this year than Smith has his entire career
    Byram is a year younger, actually year and 3 months
    Byram is already bigger

    Byram is already better and a year younger.I would trade Bouchard Dobson or Smith for Byram without any question

    Ty Smith should not even be in the comparison with Byram, the possible exception being skating. Byram is a game changer.

  73. pts2pndr says:

    ArmchairGM: Compare their draft years. They aren’t so far apart.

    By your observation and numbers. The difference is very simple Byram is an impact player while Smith skates around and looks pretty. Most of the time I would defer to you but this time you sir are wrong.

  74. Lowetide says:

    Ryan Holt
    @CondorsHolty
    ·
    7m
    Skinner leads the Condors out. No sign of Esposito or Bear. Kulevich, Vesey and Hebig are all on ice for warmups.

  75. iHockeyWpg says:

    Bling,

    Always thought Todd Nelson would make an excellent coach. Seems like the kind of coach players want to play for and go through a wall to win games. Really hope he’s hired, exactly what this group of players need.

  76. Wilde says:

    I can’t find the Bear hit (90% sure I have it clipped and saved) but I suspect it’s a concussion, it’s good that they aren’t playing him anyways. Esposito on the other hand I’m 100% sure got headshotted; pretty lame

  77. Wilde says:

    Gambardella goal from a Bouchard point shot at 5v4

    [1-0 Condors with 10:00 left in the 1st]

  78. YKOil says:

    godot10: Godot likes going out on an island.

    Yet he never quite gets there.

  79. YKOil says:

    Reja:
    The the No 8 pick will hold great value at the draft certain teams will be horny for one of that great crop of USHL players. I felt after Pete was firedthat Lucic would want out and would help market himself to some degree to aide the Oilers.Lucic bonus is payed I believeon July 1stI wonder if it’s possible where Lucic and the No 8 are dealt but the Oilers eat the bonus money this year.

    That 8th pick has become far too valuable to waste away like that. Would rather carry Lucic. If the 8th is traded straight up then it’s part of a package to snag a player like Huberdeau.

    That said, if Arizona is looking at some sort of package where they pick Lucic up (after the bonus) and flip the 14th for the 8th… then maybe I take that call. I like Soderstrom.

    And even then, if there is a Lucic for Eriksson deal out there then I make that trade and keep the 8th. Dropping a year of term is worthwhile and I would genuinely like to see what Eriksson could do; if it doesn’t work out it is MUCH easier to trade Eriksson than Lucic imo.

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