Midnight Cowboy

I’m not sure if Stuart Skinner enjoys drama, but he is providing plenty of it during the Bakersfield Condors series against the San Diego Gulls. He came in as a reliever in Game 3, stopping 10 of 12 in a 7-6 overtime win. Last night, again in overtime, Skinner stopped 45 of 46 in 93:02 of playing time, and picked up his second win. After a first pro season that was pedestrian statistically, this late run is easily the highlight for Skinner. Is this the beginning of a Cinderella story?

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group. INSANE OFFER IS HERE!

  • New Lowetide: How the U18’s increased the draft pool and gifted the Edmonton Oilers with multiple options at the 2019 draft
  • Lowetide: An offseason plan for Ken Holland to remodel the Oilers roster.
  • Jonathan Willis: Which Condors made a good first impression on Oilers GM Ken Holland?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland steadfast that buck stops with him as new Oilers GM.
  • Eric Duhatschek: Why any talk of Ken Holland being yesterday’s man should be put to rest.
  • Lowetide: How will Ken Holland proceed in Year 1 as Oilers general manager?
  • Jonathan Willis: What does the arrival of Ken Holland mean for the Oilers coaching search?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Prioritizing the roster issues that await Ken Holland in Edmonton.
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s Bakersfield production line: Elevating Jones and how long will success take?
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s procurement list for his rumored move to Edmonton will include front-office personnel
  • Jonathan Willis: A Milan Lucic trade is at the top of the to-do list for the Oilers’ next GM.
  • Lowetide: Should Oilers practice more patience in adding Evan Bouchard to the roster?
  • Jonathan Willis: Is Ken Holland yesterday’s man or the ideal GM candidate for the Oilers?
  • Lowetide: Jesse Puljujarvi and his uncertain future with the Oilers
  • Lowetide: ‘I see something special’: Are Oilers prepared to make Caleb Jones a fixture on the roster next season?
  • Jonathan Willis: Gritty comeback performance sends Edmonton’s farm team to the second round of the AHL playoffs.
  • Lowetide: Dylan Cozens might be ideal fit for Oilers at No. 8 overall in the 2019 draft
  • New Lowetide: Is this the season the Oilers take the plunge and draft a USHL player in the first round?
  • Lowetide: Red Wings front office shuffle could impact Oilers’ future.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ten prospects likely to be available when the Oilers make their first-round pick

HAPPY MOTHER’S DAY

Lois Mary Mitchell was born in Freemont, SK on May 31, 1939 and grew up in nearby Neilburg. When she was 12, Lois saved two children by pulling them from a house fire, the Neilburg fire department gave her a homemade plaque and she got her name in the paper. Her Dad owned a dairy farm and Lois had most of her schooling in Saskatchewan before the family moved to the lower mainland (Maple Ridge) in the early 1950’s. She and sister Laura spent time on CKNW radio talent shows singing harmonies ala the Clooney Sisters.

Her Dad built a sawmill in Whonnock and made his money by supplying lumber to local builders and various retail companies. When Lois got out of school, she quickly pursued work in Vancouver, first working in a shoe store and then for B.C. Tel. Her first big job was as overseas operator, a job she remembered fondly for her entire life.

Jim Mitchell (her Dad) was doing pretty well by the late 1950’s and began hiring workers who could take care of the mill as he began to pursue new opportunities (he would land a substantial contract providing boxes for chicks at the hatchery in Abbotsford).

Lois met Ira Babcook one day at lunch in the Mitchell house, she off from working at BC Tel and  Ira working in the mill that day. I can’t tell you what their first meeting was like, but can tell you they loved each other every day I knew them.

I could tell you hundreds of great stories about my Mom, she was just so damned funny. For years she would look at the ‘TV Times’ and say to me “OH BOY, it’s TBA next, they usually have good shows!” and it was years before I found out TBA is ‘to be announced’ and told her. A television commercial for a piano artist named Richard Clayderman somehow convinced her he was a former member of the Beatles! I could never convince her otherwise. Moms.

She died on a beautiful Thursday, she would have been in the garden in Maidstone given the choice. She fought so hard to stay with us but couldn’t do it, lasting only long enough to meet her second granddaughter. It was her third cancer, she said “I beat the other two, but this one is different” and she was right.

I don’t talk about my Mom here, she passed in 2009 and it is still a difficult subject. I loved her so much and miss her every day. Connect with your Mom today. You only get one.

NHLE’S OVER THE YEARS

Do NHLE’s work? Do they place all prospects on a level playing field, thus allowing us to project an entire farm system into the future? My theory on NHLE has always been that an actual NHL prospect needs to have a number of 30 or better to stay on track for a big league future. Let’s look at 2016-17, focusing on 30+ points as a line in the sand.

Only three names hit 30 or more points from the 2016-17 season, none of whom have yet established themselves as NHL players. Jujhar Khaira and Jordan Oesterle were close, and have in fact made the grade.

This is 2017-18, and six forwards hit the mark or better. Yamamoto’s number is really strong, I hope he has a healthy season in 2019-20. Vesel hits 30+ for the second season in a row, Benson just shy.

This is Woodcroft’s wizardry combined with an uptick in roster quality for Bakersfield. Six forwards and two defensemen qualify, plus you have the three blue (Jones, Bear, Lagesson) pushing for two-way roles. Most of the names at or near 30 NHLE are will be driving for an NHL job (Maksimov the exception).

Do NHLE’s work? I think they do, but would say that (as is the case in the Farm Workers post) the leading offensive players are not necessarily the players who arrive from the AHL. It’s the Jujhar Khaira player types, whose NHLE progression (7.5 to 21.1 to 28.5) after turning pro showed progress in all areas (including playing time).

Who are the players from the 2018-19 Condors who most closely resemble Khaira? It’s Joe Gambardella, whose progression in pro hockey (12.8 to 38.7) is genuinely impressive. He might be the forward to emerge this fall as an Oiler.

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132 Responses to "Midnight Cowboy"

  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    Regulation was extremely low event – Skinner only faced a single handful of tough chances, however, although i missed it, from accounts, he was fantastic in OT and made some major major saves.

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    Tyler Vesel showing well in NHLe is a perfect example of why I, personally, put little stock in it.

  3. OriginalPouzar says:

    Joe G’s offensive production needs to be taken with a bit of reservation given his age (25), however, as LT mentions, his progression from his awful 1st year pro to his excellent 2nd year pro is material and meaningful.

  4. jasontheschoolteacher says:

    Thanks for your Mom story…sounds like a great lady!!! Enjoy the memories today!!!

  5. Clarkenstein says:

    Nice story about your Mom. My second Mom’s Day without mine. Damned dementia. I never thought I’d miss getting three calls in an hour telling me the same stories. She used to pick up the TV remote and try to phone someone only to get pissed off when there was no answer! But she was a dynamo in her prime. Raised three of us boys in the tough end of Moose Jaw. Not sure how she did it looking back. Miss you Mom.

  6. buck yoakam says:

    Always appreciate your family stories LT …Thanks…there is a great article at the athletic on the krebs family also that is interesting…my wife’s birthday is the 12th and is always a special day…happy mothers day to all!

  7. dustrock says:

    Happy Mother’s Day to all.

    My poor daughter dropped her craft she made for my wife and part of it broke but thankfully for Crazy Glue I was able to fix it. Many tears avoided.

  8. Lowetide says:

    Clarkenstein:
    Nice story about your Mom. My second Mom’s Day without mine. Damned dementia.I never thought I’d miss getting three calls in an hour telling me the same stories. She used to pick up the TV remote and try to phone someone only to get pissed off when there was no answer!But she was a dynamo in her prime. Raised three of us boys in the tough end of Moose Jaw. Not sure how she did it looking back.Miss you Mom.

    My Dad had dementia. I wouldn’t wish that on anyone, nor their children. Just devastating.

  9. Pouzar says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Tyler Vesel showing well in NHLe is a perfect example of why I, personally, put little stock in it.

    Seen him live 3 times…was never impressed. Always had to look for him.

  10. dustrock says:

    Had heard McLeod seems to be making a good impression overall, particularly defensively and wrt faceoffs. Woodcroft already trusting him.

    Don’t think the scoring will ever come but maybe he’s a Horcoff.

  11. Pouzar says:

    Lowetide: My Dad had dementia. I wouldn’t wish that on anyone, nor their children. Just devastating.

    Both my grandmas had it. It is horrible.

  12. Lowetide says:

    Vesel’s NHLE is a lot about usage. In college he was the man, his rookie pro season not so much. Patience is important with these players, even the college kids.

  13. elgruntus says:

    Wasn’t that Skinner’s MO in the WHL? Decent in the regular season, almost unbeatable in the playoffs?

  14. leadfarmer says:

    Lowetide:
    Vesel’s NHLE is a lot about usage. In college he was the man, his rookie pro season not so much. Patience is important with these players, even the college kids.

    Juniors and senior in college forwards need to be docked a lot on their equivalencies. Most of their good forward colleagues are already gone.
    If you put near ppg as a freshman or sophomore that means a lot. If you dont but do so as a junior or senior that doesnt mean a heck of a lot

  15. Lowetide says:

    leadfarmer: Juniors and senior in college forwards need to be docked a lot on their equivalencies.Most of their good forward colleagues are already gone.
    If you put near ppg as a freshman or sophomore that means a lot.If you dont but do so as a junior or senior that doesnt meana heck of a lot

    It means you have earned a more prominent role. Not all junior and senior seasons are spent on skill lines, although Vesel and Gambardella did earn those jobs.

  16. leadfarmer says:

    Lowetide,

    If you havent earned a prominent role on your college team by your sophomore year as a forward your chances of developing into a significant player are quite lower

  17. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pouzar: Seen him live 3 times…was never impressed. Always had to look for him.

    Never seen him live but I’ve watched alot of Condor hockey this year and, while he actually has showed more skill in some stretches than I expected, he is not a real prospect and the fact that his NHLe is what it is an example of why I never put too much in to the stat.

  18. Lowetide says:

    leadfarmer:
    Lowetide,

    If you havent earned a prominent role on your college team by your sophomore year as a forward your chances of developing into a significant player are quite lower

    I’d go farther, your chances of getting an NHL contract are poor. Vesel was a depth choice, Gambardella undrafted. Their progress in college paved their pro careers.

  19. Oilman99 says:

    Skinner seems to be able to elevate his game when the stakes are high, he was outstanding in the playoffs in his last year of junior, also. It would be quite a story if he can keep it going this spring.

  20. Oilman99 says:

    Lowetide: I’d go farther, your chances of getting an NHL contract are poor. Vesel was a depth choice, Gambardella undrafted. Their progress in college paved their pro careers.

    Some guys don’t get it, but Gambardella gets what its going to take to make it to the show, guys like him make great TEAM players.

  21. slopitch says:

    Need to keep Woodcroft in the system. Id like him or Nelson as coach next year. Holland likes to have coaches last a long time and i like the idea of a younger coach.

    Save the Tippett money and use that million a year on a best in league analytics dept.

  22. Oilman99 says:

    Lowetide: My Dad had dementia. I wouldn’t wish that on anyone, nor their children. Just devastating.

    Having the same conversation every 5min. Is such a tragic way to have to live. In our case for five years,it puts a tremendous strain on the whole family.

  23. BONE207 says:

    Happy Mother’s day…

    I think I had dementia one Mother’s day. Shopping in Woolco looking for a gift. Ended up with some city of Edmonton souvenirs. One was a decorative ash tray. Of course Mom wasn’t a smoker. Fortunately she is still a vibrant 85 & will probably out live me. Thank Gord for that.

  24. Professor Q says:

    Anton Lander had a hat trick against Italy today.

    Also, Happy Mother’s Day to all the mothers who frequent this blog.

  25. Alpine says:

    Being a Liverpool supporter is almost strangely worse than being an Oilers fan. It’s kind of like repeating 2006 every other year. The heartbreak is constantly just around the corner. I’m sure we’d all take a few Cup final losses in recent years over what we usually get though.

  26. HT Joe says:

    Oilman99: Having the same conversation every 5min. Is such a tragic way to have to live. In our case for five years,it puts a tremendous strain on the whole family.

    Thanks Lowetide for the wonderful story this morning.

    If anyone has a loved one with Dementia, I found the book “Cracking the Dementia Code” (by Karen Tyrell) he useful strategies and info. Good luck and hang in there.

  27. Alpine says:

    Happy Mother’s Day all, condolences to all those who have lost theirs.

  28. leadfarmer says:

    Alpine:
    Being a Liverpool supporter is almost strangely worse than being an Oilers fan. It’s kind of like repeating 2006 every other year. The heartbreak is constantly just around the corner. I’m sure we’d all take a few Cup final losses in recent years over what we usually get though.

    Yes it must be horrible to have to settle for a champions league title

  29. Alpine says:

    leadfarmer: Yes it must be horrible to have to settle for a champions league title

    They haven’t won this year’s version yet. I’ll cease my complaining if they do.

  30. Maoriduvpoojt says:

    Happy Mother’s Day to all the amazing ladies who have made this world better for us all.

    LT, I too lost my mother to cancer in 2009; my nephew and step-mother in 2010. Both my mother’s parents died of cancer also. Her younger sister had survived a lengthy bout with breast cancer and I am grateful that my mother and my family had her support, during that extremely trying time.

    My father’s parents suffered from Alzheimer’s as well, as did my father’s older brother. Luckily for his family, his passing was swift, about 6 months, whereas my Grandfather “survived” for close to a decade, while my Grandmother suffered for about 5 years. Both died in their 90’s, though; my uncle was 72.

    My father struggles with names and the occassional word, and we worry for him, of course. Luckily he has set himself up with a lot of social activities and networks. He is still independent and drives himself where he needs to go. He turns 79 next month.

    Both are truly horrible ways to spend your last days. For my children’s sake, I hope that cures for both of these awful diseases are found in their lifetimes.

  31. Munny says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Tyler Vesel showing well in NHLe is a perfect example of why I, personally, put little stock in it.

    The stat is highly misunderstood and is abused for purposes for which it was not intended. Such abuse then leads to disillusionment with the stat (because it is setup to fail). We see that with other stats too.

  32. Jethro Tull says:

    Alpine:
    Being a Liverpool supporter is almost strangely worse than being an Oilers fan. It’s kind of like repeating 2006 every other year. The heartbreak is constantly just around the corner. I’m sure we’d all take a few Cup final losses in recent years over what we usually get though.

    Heartbreak? Liverpool are one of the biggest teams in Europe. They are perennial contenders. Try growing up a Pompey fan, with relegation battles and the chance your team folds because a Serbian business man used it as a money laundromat, then sold it to some more guys who did the same.

    It’s like saying being a San Jose fan is constant heartbreak because they’ve never won a cup.😛

  33. blainer says:

    I’d love to know how to separate these US players that are projected to go in the top 10. No way all of these guys are gonna work out IMO. I do like NHLe’s in some cases but not sure in this situation how solid it will be.

    I really think some of these guys are getting zoomed for sure. Turcotte’s numbers look pretty good when he was healthy and would not be surprised he turns out to be the BPA in this draft.

    I know Hughes is the man but I do question where this will all play out in a few years. Whoever we draft I’m glad to hear our new GM will not be rushing him. I really don’t want to even see a nine game audition.

  34. Lowetide says:

    blainer:
    I’d love to know how to separate these US players that are projected to go in the top 10. No way all of these guys are gonna work out IMO. I do like NHLe’s in some cases but not sure in this situation how solid it will be.

    I really think some of these guys are getting zoomed for sure. Turcotte’s numbers look pretty good when he was healthy and would not be surprised he turns out to be the BPA in this draft.

    I know Hughes is the man but I do question where this will all play out in a few years. Whoever we draft I’m glad to hear our new GM will not be rushing him. I really don’t want to even see a nine game audition.

    The player I am a little wary of is Boldy. Others love him but he is the one guy I would pass on from that group at No. 8.

  35. JimmyV1965 says:

    Hey guys. Thanks for answering my question about Tkachuk and Zadina yesterday. I’ve got another. Hopefully it’s my last. How do you guys think Wahlstrom stacks up against all the American guys this year?

  36. Ben says:

    Solid odds on Tippett and Boughner both coming in.

    Wonder if any of the current staff survive.

  37. BONE207 says:

    Professor Q:
    Anton Lander had a hat trick against Italy today.

    Also, Happy Mother’s Day to all the mothers who frequent this blog.

    I believe there are many who frequent this blog who can be Mothers on any given day. Those are most exciting & entertaining times.

  38. BONE207 says:

    Ben:
    Solid odds on Tippett and Boughner both coming in.

    Wonder if any of the current staff survive.

    I wonder what the contract is for Gully & the rest. Wouldn’t it be worth it letting them try it for a year (since Woodguy says coaches don’t impact that much) while waiting for Woodcroft to see if he is the future for the position? Lots of Wood in this post…hope it doesn’t catch fire…

  39. Reja says:

    I was spitballing the No 8 and a cap dump Lucic etc yesterday and I think the no 8 with all the Yankee Doodlers zooming each other and the upcoming expansion draft would hold great value. I guess will see if Holland has the pick in play and if someone really wants one of the Americans. Columbus has no first who knows what direction there going might be ripe for the picking would love Josh Anderson cheap 1.75 mil for one more year he’s big fast and Would score 35 plus easily with dynamic duo.

  40. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ottawa took an early 2-0 lead but Samorukov with a PP goal in the 2nd to cut the lead in half.

  41. OriginalPouzar says:

    Whoa, Guelph has now scored 4 straight in the 2nd to take a 4-2 lead – Samorukov adds and assist to his goal.

    4-2 Guelph with under 5 to go in the 2nd.

  42. Lowetide says:

    JimmyV1965:
    Hey guys. Thanks for answering my question about Tkachuk and Zadina yesterday. I’ve got another. Hopefully it’s my last. How do you guys think Wahlstrom stacks up against all the American guys this year?

    He was part of a very disappointing Boston College team, the entire roster (including three Oilers prospects) had a power outage. I had him at No. 6 last year, he would be in the range of that number again this summer (I still believe).

  43. Alpine says:

    Jethro Tull: Heartbreak? Liverpool are one of the biggest teams in Europe. They are perennial contenders. Try growing up a Pompey fan, with relegation battles and the chance your team folds because a Serbian business man used it as a money laundromat, then sold it to some more guys who did the same.

    It’s like saying being a San Jose fan is constant heartbreak because they’ve never won a cup.

    FC Edmonton are back after missing a year because they had no league to play in. Remains to be seen how the CPL will go, much as I am optimistic about in general. So yeah I know the pain a bit. Liverpool are my only chance these days of not feeling not terrible about sporting interests, that of which I donate a little too much time to, lol.

  44. OriginalPouzar says:

    Make that 5-2 Guelph and add another assist to Samorukov’s totals.

  45. Ben says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Make that 5-2 Guelph and add another assist to Samorukov’s totals.

    In terms of style of play, who would you compare him to?

  46. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ottawa with a late 2nd period goal on a 5 on 3 to give them some life going in to the 3rd.

  47. Maoriduvpoojt says:

    Ben:
    Solid odds on Tippett and Boughner both coming in.

    Wonder if any of the current staff survive.

    Based on Friedman I’m convinced that it will be Tippett. I am not sure how big the Seattle situation is playing here though.

    To that end I figured it wouldn’t hurt to send a couple of emails to the new GM. Doubt he reads them or if he does, I doubt he takes them into consideration. If he talks about Todd Nelson and has a meeting with our good host and/or Woodguy in the next couple of weeks, that would demonstrate to me that this small effort had an impact.

  48. steelymac17 says:

    Ben: In terms of style of play, who would you compare him to?

    I mentioned to Original Pouzar before he reminded me of Laddy Smid.My opinion was based on skating style and grit.His offence is sure a nice surprise as on draft day he was considered a stay at home dman.Look forward to others thoughts.

  49. Yeti says:

    steelymac17: I mentioned to Original Pouzar before he reminded me of Laddy Smid.My opinion was based on skating style and grit.His offence is sure a nice surprise as on draft day he was considered a stay at home dman.Look forward to others thoughts.

    Oh no, LT always had it in for Smid. This does not bode well.

  50. OriginalPouzar says:

    From the Ottawa 67s radio guy:

    “I know the plan in Edmonton is to have young players percolate in Bakersfield. But the way Dmitri Samorukov controls a game, he’s close to NHL ready. He won’t be in the AHL for long.”

    ——————

    Great praise for the opposition but I don’t necessarily agree with him. The gap between CHL and NHL, for dmen, is massive. Of course some make the jump directly but they are few and generally the elite.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s in the Bake for two full seasons but time will tell.

    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    [/quote]

  51. OriginalPouzar says:

    Samurokov adds a 2nd PP goal – 2G and 2A as Guelph leads 6-3.

    Unreal.

  52. Oil2Oilers says:

    As LT has taught me prospects, especially D prospects will break your heart. The future looks so bright for the Oilers D prospects right now, but what is realistic 1/3 working out? Or are the odds slightly better as they are all at least draft +1?

    Samorukov, great season – unbelievable playoffs
    Bouchard, ok season – draft pedigree needed skill set
    Bear, injury hurt his season early and late – but a cannon of a shot
    Lagesson, best AHL defenseman – not exciting but ready
    Persson, SHL prodigy – boom or bust transition to NHL
    Jones, wheels for days – ready plus cover both sides

    So 2/6 working out in the next 18 months? Hard not to dream of 3 or 4 but 2 could change the McDavid prime years for the team.

  53. JimmyV1965 says:

    Lowetide: He was part of a very disappointing Boston College team, the entire roster (including three Oilers prospects) had a power outage. I had him at No. 6 last year, he would be in the range of that number again this summer (I still believe).

    Lowetide: He was part of a very disappointing Boston College team, the entire roster (including three Oilers prospects) had a power outage. I had him at No. 6 last year, he would be in the range of that number again this summer (I still believe).

    Thanks LT. I guess I’m wondering if the top part of the draft is as good as last year. At 8OV, are we getting a player as good, better or worse than Bouchard.

  54. JimmyV1965 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    From the Ottawa 67s radio guy:

    “I know the plan in Edmonton is to have young players percolate in Bakersfield. But the way Dmitri Samorukov controls a game, he’s close to NHL ready. He won’t be in the AHL for long.”

    ——————

    Great praise for the opposition but I don’t necessarily agree with him. The gap between CHL and NHL, for dmen, is massive.Of course some make the jump directly but they are few and generally the elite.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s in the Bake for two full seasons but time will tell.

    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    [/quote]

    Wow!! Maybe Holland has finally found his next Lidstrom. LOL. I joke but we can always hope.

  55. Ben says:

    It’s an obscenely rare thing for an Oilers prospect to get meaningful playoff experience–Draisaitl being a fairly recent exception with Kelowna.

    Very pleased that Bakersfield and Guelph are providing this level of developmental opportunity for key prospects.

  56. OriginalPouzar says:

    Can’t wait to watch Guelph and Samorukov in the Memorial Cup which, I believe, starts next weekend.

  57. jtblack says:

    One of my Favorite Oilers all time was Glenn Anderson. Why? He got BETTER in the Playoffs.
    He was CLUTCH in the biggest games.

    Watched Skinner in Junior for 4 yrs. He always had a rather Pedestrian SV% in the Reg season.
    One thing he has consistently shown; isthe ability to raise his game at Playoff time.

    He took Lethbridge deep a couple years with Herioc efforts likee last night. Then won it all with SC last yr. He has that “IT “.

    Not sure where Skinner lands as a Pro, but as LT says “Could this be the beginning of the Skinnderrlla Story?”

    Great tribute to your Mom LT.

    To all Moms. You are the Best.

    Step Moms
    Bonus Mom
    Birth Moms
    All Moms

  58. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    BONE207,

    since Woodguy says coaches don’t impact that much)

    Coaches can have massive impact.

    To me it’s second behind “who you play with” in terms of impacting a player’s results (both fancy and non-fancy)

  59. Lowetide says:

    JimmyV1965:
    Thanks LT. I guess I’m wondering if the top part of the draft is as good as last year. At 8OV, are we getting a player as good, better or worse than Bouchard.

    I think we’ll get a player who is around the same as Bouchard in terms of potential.

  60. Lowetide says:

    Samorukov may come in a hurry. The math people have convinced me of it. Everyone stays in their lanes except the special ones. Is he special? We don’t know. Best to take a quiet confidence into the fall re: Samorukov but he has some things.

  61. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilman99: Some guys don’t get it, but Gambardella gets what its going to take to make it to the show, guys like him make great TEAM players.

    We do need to realize that he is quite bit older than the rest of the real prospects, 25, but, at the same time, I agree with your post and think he has a real shot to become a legit NHL 4th line energy player. He knows where to go on the ice and is just tenacious on the forecheck. A good two way game and can PK. I wish he was a bit faster but I think his skating is indeed good enough.

  62. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jtblack,

    One of my Favorite Oilers all time was Glenn Anderson. Why? He got BETTER in the Playoffs.
    He was CLUTCH in the biggest games.

    I was an Anderson fan as a kid.

    Loved how he took the puck to the net with reckless abandon.

    That said, his career points per game was 0.973

    His career playoff points per game was 0.951

    Not saying he didn’t score big goals, but he did that in a lot of games.

  63. OriginalPouzar says:

    Munny: The stat is highly misunderstood and is abused for purposes for which it was not intended.Such abuse then leads to disillusionment with the stat (because it is setup to fail).We see that with other stats too.

    LT: “My theory on NHLE has always been that an actual NHL prospect needs to have a number of 30 or better to stay on track for a big league future.”

    Tyler Vesel with a few seasons breaking the threshold yet no legit shot at ever playing an NHL game.

  64. Yeti says:

    OriginalPouzar: LT: “My theory on NHLE has always been that an actual NHL prospect needs to have a number of 30 or better to stay on track for a big league future.”

    Tyler Vesel with a few seasons breaking the threshold yet no legit shot at ever playing an NHL game.

    There’s this thing called context. Every stat needs a heavy dose.

  65. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ben: In terms of style of play, who would you compare him to?

    Tough to say but I see a bit of Jay B. in him – More physical and better defensively.

  66. flyfish1168 says:

    Watched Cale Makar closely during the playoffs. He is going to be very good. Probably close to being one of the best young Dman in a while. JMHO

  67. leadfarmer says:

    Lowetide:
    Samorukov may come in a hurry. The math people have convinced me of it. Everyone stays in their lanes except the special ones. Is he special? We don’t know. Best to take a quiet confidence into the fall re: Samorukov but he has some things.

    One of my favorite things to watch is prospects when they take two steps forward all of a sudden. Samurokov took like 4 this season. Hope after a year in AHL he will take another couple steps

  68. leadfarmer says:

    This years playoffs are showing that playing fast hockey and heavy hockey are not mutually exclusive

  69. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar: LT: “My theory on NHLE has always been that an actual NHL prospect needs to have a number of 30 or better to stay on track for a big league future.”

    Tyler Vesel with a few seasons breaking the threshold yet no legit shot at ever playing an NHL game.

    You might have said the same thing about Joe Gambardella a year ago. We don’t know what we don’t know.

  70. Lowetide says:

    leadfarmer:
    This years playoffs are showing that playing fast hockey and heavy hockey are not mutually exclusive

    Patrick Maroon is in this year’s playoffs.

  71. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Samorukov’s two goals:

    https://twitter.com/storm_city/status/1127650847721230336?s=12

    https://twitter.com/storm_city/status/1127669050862198791?s=12

    Just wanted to thank you for all the updates you have been providing on our AHL team and prospects. Much appreciated.

  72. leadfarmer says:

    Lowetide: Patrick Maroon is in this year’s playoffs.

    Maroons straightaway speed is poor but when you have Rob Thomas on your line you just go straight to the net. It wasnt his speed that got him points this year and it isnt his speed that is getting him points now

  73. leadfarmer says:

    Maroon cost himself a lot of money to be a parent. good to see he is doing well and can be close to his kid

    https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nhl/news/pat-maroons-son-gets-emotional-after-dad-scores-series-clinching-goal/uvjraysvrlb81ofugxa6380hb

  74. pts2pndr says:

    leadfarmer: One of my favorite things to watch is prospects when they take two steps forward all of a sudden.Samurokov took like 4 this season.Hope after a year in AHL he will take another couple steps

    It’s great to see the teams draft choices excel. There is light at the end of the tunnel and this time I am of the belief it isn’t a train. If our young promising D continue to develop very good things are in the teams future.

  75. Professor Q says:

    leadfarmer: Maroons straightaway speed is poor but when you have Rob Thomas on your line you just go straight to the net.It wasnt his speed that got him points this year and it isnt his speed that is getting him points now

    Maroon and Rob Thomas (should be numbers 5 and 20).

    Jake Allen, too.

    They just need to sign Brooks Orpik and pair him with Vince Dunn.

  76. barry.moore23 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Can’t wait to watch Guelph and Samorukov in the Memorial Cup which, I believe, starts next weekend.

    OP,

    Second the Defmn comment above. Thanks for all of the updates over the past AHL and CHL playoffs etc. Appreciate it.

  77. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer:
    This years playoffs are showing that playing fast hockey and heavy hockey are not mutually exclusive

    They never were.

    Heavy without speed or skill though……

  78. OriginalPouzar says:

    You guys are welcome – I enjoy watching and updating.

    Of course, what Wilde does with the AHL takes it to a whole other level but I don’t have that type of skill.

  79. OriginalPouzar says:

    Here is the Memorial Cup Schedule:

    http://chlmemorialcup.ca/2019schedule/

    Guelph plays:

    Saturday the 18th at 2:30 mountain (Rouyn-Noranda)
    Sunday the 19th at 6 mountain (Halifax)
    Tuesday the 21st at 6 mountain (PA or Van)

    Halifax and Safin play:

    Friday the 17th at 6 mountain (PA or Van)
    Sunday the 19th at 6 mountain (Guelph)
    Wednsday the 22nd at 6 (Rouyn-Noranda)

    Safin has been a complete non-factor since he came back from injury. From accounts his skating is not good and his game has been quite poor – he doesn’t have the trust of his coach.

    I wonder if the Oil will feel an overage season in the Q is the right placement next year given his lost development year (for the most part).

  80. OriginalPouzar says:

    Tomorrow night I won’t be able to update the Condors’ game as I have ball hockey at 9pm – an egregious start time even if it didn’t create a conflict. Won’t be home until like 10:15 – who stays up that late?

    I truly hope my Condors’ viewing isn’t done for the year!

  81. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer: Maroons straightaway speed is poor but when you have Rob Thomas on your line you just go straight to the net.It wasnt his speed that got him points this year and it isnt his speed that is getting him points now

    That’s exactly it.

    Thomas is playing like a pisscutter and he’s not 20 yet. He’s a player.

    Players like Maroon have value on the boards and in front of the net when with a player like that.

    Look at the bottom 6 at the last 4 teams left and there is skill on each line along with good support players.

    Talking to guys with access to player/puck tracking data and it sounds like more than a few teams have started to use it to create combos of skill/speed/battle wins/shooting/willingness to go to the net/passing/forecheck ability/ etc and figuring out where they lack and adding those players when possible.

    That’s the future which I have been preaching for a decade now becoming the present.

    Skill on all lines, along with the other required traits.

    Younger players who need shelter to succeed play in the bottom 6 along with value players with specific abilities to enhance/support the skilled players.

    EDM is far from doing this and I have no idea what Holland will do.

  82. nelson88 says:

    Clarkenstein,

    What years did you live in the Jaw? My old stomping grounds as well

  83. leadfarmer says:

    I want to know who were the scouts from other teams who identified Samurokov ( there were teams trying to acquire him at the deadline) and what it would take to hire them.

  84. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Having a future top line talent learning on the 3rd with 2 veterans and a guy who is slow but has hands in close and can dig the puck out is great. Thomas could probably have been moved up a while ago but the stability helps develop a player
    Yet we expect JP to develop with new linemates every period

  85. David says:

    Oil2Oilers:

    Bouchard, ok season – draft pedigree needed skill set

    I would say everything about Bouchard’s season was excellent except his world junior’s. There is no way to spin his time in London as anything other than dominating. A player can only do so much. What was he supposed to have done, score 3 P/PG ?

  86. Oil2Oilers says:

    David,

    OK – was not meant as a slight. He preformed as expected, dominating a league he was clearly to good for. I, for one, learned little more about Bouchard this season than I knew this time last year. This is not the players fault but I will be much clearer on my evaluation of Bouchard after 20+ games in the AHL next year.

    Others in my list of 6; Jones, Samurokov and Lagesson exceed expectations this last season. This could and likely will change over the next year. I still feel 2/6 making it as successful NHLers is a good line in the sand. Hopefully another 2/6 can be flipped for speedy winger prospects.

  87. meanashell11 says:

    Oil2Oilers:
    As LT has taught me prospects, especially D prospects will break your heart. The future looks so bright for the Oilers D prospects right now, but what is realistic 1/3 working out? Or are the odds slightly better as they are all at least draft +1?

    Samorukov, great season – unbelievable playoffs
    Bouchard, ok season – draft pedigree needed skill set
    Bear, injury hurt his season early and late – but a cannon of a shot
    Lagesson, best AHL defenseman – not exciting but ready
    Persson, SHL prodigy – boom or bust transition to NHL
    Jones, wheels for days – ready plus cover both sides

    So 2/6 working out in the next 18 months? Hard not to dream of 3 or 4 but 2 could change the McDavid prime years for the team.

    Bouchard “OK season”?

    How about the awards he has won this year including defenseman of the year OHL?

    That’s an “OK season”?

  88. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy v2.0: That’s exactly it.

    Thomas is playing like a pisscutter and he’s not 20 yet.He’s a player.

    Players like Maroon have value on the boards and in front of the net when with a player like that.

    Look at the bottom 6 at the last 4 teams left and there is skill on each line along with good support players.

    Talking to guys with access to player/puck tracking data and it sounds like more than a few teams have started to use it to create combos of skill/speed/battle wins/shooting/willingness to go to the net/passing/forecheck ability/ etc and figuring out where they lack and adding those players when possible.

    That’s the future which I have been preaching for a decade now becoming the present.

    Skill on all lines, along with the other required traits.

    Younger players who need shelter to succeed play in the bottom 6 along with value players with specific abilities to enhance/support the skilled players.

    EDM is far from doing this and I have no idea what Holland will do.

    Balance. Maroon can play but you can’t have four big slow LW’s. Edmonton has been out of balance since 2006 spring when Lowe did his deadline magic. I remember when they dealt Cogliano, it was about what he couldn’t do. There are VERY few complete players, that’s why Patrice Bergeron stands out.

    Balance. I hope Ken Holland finds it here, he had a lot of it in Detroit.

  89. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oil2Oilers:
    David,

    OK – was not meant as a slight. He preformed as expected, dominating a league he was clearly to good for. I, for one, learned little more about Bouchard this season than I knew this time last year. This is not the players fault but I will be much clearer on my evaluation of Bouchard after 20+ games in the AHL next year.

    Others in my list of 6; Jones, Samurokov and Lagesson exceed expectations this last season. This could and likely will change over the next year. I still feel 2/6 making it as successful NHLers is a good line in the sand. Hopefully another 2/6 can be flipped for speedy winger prospects.

    History would show that its your line in the sand of 2 out of the 6 “making it” is reasonable.

    One is all but a lock – Bouchard will be an every day NHL d-man – nothing is 100% but this is close.

    Although the sample size was (is) way too small, Jones has already shown the ability to perform well in the 3rd pairing in the NHL – of course, that doesn’t mean he’s a lock, he may never perform in the NHL at that level again, but odds are pretty darn good that he’ll have an NHL career.

    Of course, we’re all on a Samorukov high but, as directly skyward as his arrows are pointing, he isn’t a sure thing to have an NHL career – he could go anywhere from tweener to top pairing guy.

    Lagesson’s game is tailored for the new NHL and, unless he isn’t able to process the game when its faster, I really think this kid is an NHL player. No lock there but I’d be surprised.

    Bear’s ability to puck retrieve and his offensive game improved in the AHL this year – I can see the potential for the improvement in his defensive play – zone play, puck retrieval, etc. – to not translate to the NHL but, then again, maybe it does.

    Given how close Jones is and how “good” Bouchard is, it will be disappointing if there are only two but, yes, that really is the line in the sand of reasonableness.

  90. Gerta Rauss says:

    I don’t care/watch the Raptors or the NBA but that was pretty exciting

  91. Oilertown says:

    I don’t think this is Gilbert Chorney and Petry we are talking about though.. All 3 of those have played many games as well.

  92. who says:

    OriginalPouzar: History would show that its your line in the sand of 2 out of the 6 “making it” is reasonable.

    One is all but a lock – Bouchard will be an every day NHL d-man – nothing is 100% but this is close.

    Although the sample size was (is) way too small, Jones has already shown the ability to perform well in the 3rd pairing in the NHL – of course, that doesn’t mean he’s a lock, he may never perform in the NHL at that level again, but odds are pretty darn good that he’ll have an NHL career.

    Of course, we’re all on a Samorukov high but, as directly skyward as his arrows are pointing, he isn’t a sure thing to have an NHL career – he could go anywhere from tweener to top pairing guy.

    Lagesson’s game is tailored for the new NHL and, unless he isn’t able to process the game when its faster, I really think this kid is an NHL player. No lock there but I’d be surprised.

    Bear’s ability to puck retrieve and his offensive game improved in the AHL this year – I can see the potential for the improvement in his defensive play – zone play, puck retrieval, etc. – to not translate to the NHL but, then again, maybe it does.

    Given how close Jones is and how “good” Bouchard is, it will be disappointing if there are only two but, yes, that really is the line in the sand of reasonableness.

    I’m going to predict that 3 of these guys become everyday NHL dmen. Jones, Bouchard and Samarukov.. I don’t think that’s a stretch at all.
    The other 3 guys, who knows?

  93. albertaboundedmonton says:

    who,

    There are trades coming. Such a strong defensive core coming. We wait

  94. OriginalPouzar says:

    While “one of Sekera or Russell” need to go this off-season (clearly Russell, Sekera is too important unless real value is coming back in addition to cap space), I think its next off-season where more material major change will be seen to the blueline.

    Each of Jones, Bear and Lagesson lose their waiver exempt status after this season. This makes it very important that the each get their reps in the NHL so the organization can see what they have in these players. No, they don’t need to move bodies out to make room, NHL teams use 10 plus d-men a year.

    What if all 3 look like NHL players (in addition to Bouchard almost certainly playing in the NHL in 2020/21 (if no labor stoppage)? Shit, what if two of them look like NHL players – plus Bouchard and, who knows where Samorukov will be?

    One probably gets lost in expansion but I think our defence is going to look much different opening night 2020/21 than it does opening night 2019/20

  95. pts2pndr says:

    who,

    I am not as sure of Jones as the rest of the group. I would agree with Samarukov, Bouchard, and possibly Lagesson. Jones does not appear to have the defensive acumen of the other three. Bouchard and Samarukov appear to have better offence. It would be great if they all make it. Lets hope management keeps the right ones.

  96. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: LT: “My theory on NHLE has always been that an actual NHL prospect needs to have a number of 30 or better to stay on track for a big league future.”

    Tyler Vesel with a few seasons breaking the threshold yet no legit shot at ever playing an NHL game.

    Lowetide: You might have said the same thing about Joe Gambardella a year ago. We don’t know what we don’tknow.

    This is a really great point. I’d have written Gambardella off as a prospect at this point last season. He’s now held a job in the NHL for a month or two and is a legitimate candidate for the same role next season.

  97. fistycuff says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    You guys are welcome – I enjoy watching and updating.

    Of course, what Wilde does with the AHL takes it to a whole other level but I don’t have that type of skill.

    On that note, thanks to everyone here! The information and banter here is exceptional and provides me with insight I cannot gather elsewhere. Your links are all incredible. Great hockey people. Keep being you!

  98. Glovjuice says:

    Professor Q:
    Anton Lander had a hat trick against Italy today.

    Also, Happy Mother’s Day to all the mothers who frequent this blog.

    Cheers

  99. Oil2Oilers says:

    who: I’m going to predict that 3 of these guys become everyday NHL dmen. Jones, Bouchard and Samarukov.. I don’t think that’s a stretch at all.
    The other 3 guys,who knows?

    And this is where it is so hard to be reasonable! 1/3 – 2/6 is reasonable but if you assume Bouchard and Jones are both more likely than not it is really hard not to make the case for at least one of the other 4. Heck Persson can projected in the NHL/AHL or released to the SHL/KHL next year. After years of misery looking at the Oilers D prospects it is hard not to be excited.

  100. slopitch says:

    I agree the oilers need to move one of russell/sekera for cap/depth reasons. I also think if they want to add an impact F they will have to move one of Nurse/Larsson. I wouldnt move Larsson unless it was for a true #1 like Subban. Could the LD survive without Russell and Nurse? I dunno. They’d probably move the puck better but ideally Id rather find a RD to play with Nurse than move him.

    So… I dont see a lot of options for rapid improvement. Nail the draft and hope Benson, Bouchard, Samokurov, Jones, Bear and co force your hand. What does Jones and a 2nd get you? Vegas or the Leafs might just be willing to move a top 6 F. I still think the play is create some space and shop around the edges for scoring F. There has to be some college or european league free agent who can move the needle more than Reider, Brodziak, Chaison and whatever ekse Chai brought in.

    Gonna be a fun summer.

  101. jp says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    jtblack,

    One of my Favorite Oilers all time was Glenn Anderson. Why? He got BETTER in the Playoffs.
    He was CLUTCH in the biggest games.

    I was an Anderson fan as a kid.

    Loved how he took the puck to the net with reckless abandon.

    That said, his career points per game was 0.973

    His career playoff points per game was 0.951

    Not saying he didn’t score big goals, but he did that in a lot of games.

    This is definitely true. I’m not sure I believe in “clutch” scorers, but Anderson does makes one of the better cases for their existence.

    I wasn’t able to find playoff vs regular season goals scored per game league wide, but with scoring down in the playoffs I think Anderson’s small dip is probably pretty good relative to league.

    In his time with the Oilers Anderson scored 1.08 PPG in the regular season and 1.12 in the playoffs. He was also 6th in NHL regular season goals over that span but first in GWG.

    That got me looking at career PPG in playoffs vs regular season and there’s a pretty remarkable correspondence. I guess we’re looking at the all-time greats on these lists, but I was still surprised.

    Gretzky
    Mario
    Bossy
    Orr
    Dionne
    Crosby
    Stastny
    Forsberg
    Nilsson
    Esposito
    are the all time regular season top 10 (>400 games)

    7 of them are top 10 in the playoffs (>40 games) with Dionne, Esposito and Nilsson the only ones falling out. Taking their place were:

    Messier 1.07/1.25 (regular season/playoff PPG)
    Kurri 1.12/1.17
    Perreault 1.11/1.14

    Messier, wow.

  102. Glovjuice says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Tomorrow night I won’t be able to update the Condors’ game as I have ball hockey at 9pm – an egregious start time even if it didn’t create a conflict. Won’t be home until like 10:15 – who stays up that late?

    I truly hope my Condors’ viewing isn’t done for the year!

    More like ball hockey is an agregious sport. Let alone the 9PM Sunday version.

  103. YKOil says:

    jp,

    Mention play-off clutch and I always think of Esa Tikkanen and Claude Lemieux.

    Play-off gold those two.

  104. YKOil says:

    Reja:
    I was spitballing the No 8 and a cap dump Lucic etc yesterday and I think the no 8 with all the Yankee Doodlers zooming each other and the upcoming expansion draftwould hold great value. I guess will see if Holland has the pick in play and if someone really wants one of theAmericans. Columbus has no first who knows whatdirection there going might be ripe for the picking would love Josh Anderson cheap 1.75 mil for one more year he’s big fast and Would score 35 plus easily with dynamic duo.

    And I’ll say again:

    That 8th pick has become far too valuable to waste away like that. Would rather carry Lucic. If the 8th is traded straight up then it’s part of a package to snag a player like Huberdeau.

    That said, if Arizona is looking at some sort of package where they pick Lucic up (after the bonus) and flip the 14th for the 8th… then maybe I take that call. I like Soderstrom.

    And even then, if there is a Lucic for Eriksson deal out there then I make that trade and keep the 8th. Dropping a year of term is worthwhile and I would genuinely like to see what Eriksson could do; if it doesn’t work out it is MUCH easier to trade Eriksson than Lucic imo.

  105. littleenglish says:

    Woodguy v2.0: That’s exactly it.

    Thomas is playing like a pisscutter and he’s not 20 yet.He’s a player.

    Players like Maroon have value on the boards and in front of the net when with a player like that.

    Look at the bottom 6 at the last 4 teams left and there is skill on each line along with good support players.

    Talking to guys with access to player/puck tracking data and it sounds like more than a few teams have started to use it to create combos of skill/speed/battle wins/shooting/willingness to go to the net/passing/forecheck ability/ etc and figuring out where they lack and adding those players when possible.

    That’s the future which I have been preaching for a decade now becoming the present.

    Skill on all lines, along with the other required traits.

    Younger players who need shelter to succeed play in the bottom 6 along with value players with specific abilities to enhance/support the skilled players.

    EDM is far from doing this and I have no idea what Holland will do.

    The Nintendo Ice Hockey Skinny guy Fat guy Normal guy model. Jeeze did the Oiler Gms not play this legendary game. You’d think they would on the road in the 80’s !

  106. OriginalPouzar says:

    Game 6 Condors/Gulls tonight.

    Skinner made 45 saves for the win last game but I’m thinking Woodcroft goes back to Starrett tonight given he’s been the man all year long and was one of the top goalies in the league for the year. I can see the argument both ways.

    Would love to see Marody back but who knows.

    Bear as well.

    Man, the dept of the team is definitely being tested, so banged up.

  107. Jaxon says:

    Raphael Lavoie playoff goal scoring update:

    Raphael Lavoie 6’4″ – 198lbs.Right-handed C/RW
    Moosehead lost to the Huskies
    Lavoie’s historic run has put him atop the list of draft age goal scorers:

    ’19 – Raphael Lavoie – 23GP – 20G (draft season)
    ’11 – Jonathan Huberdeau – 19GP – 16G (draft season)
    ’05 – Sidney Crosby – 13GP – 14G (draft season)
    ’12 – Nathan MacKinnon – 17GP – 13G (draft-1)
    ’11 – Jean-Gabriel Pageau – 24GP – 13G (draft season)

    Or if you go to under 19 (according to Elite Prospects cutoff date, which I’m not sure when that is):
    ’08 – Paul Byron – 19GP – 21G (draft+1)
    ’19 – Raphael Lavoie – 23GP – 20G (draft season)
    ’07 – Brad Marchand – 20GP – 16G (draft+1)
    ’11 – Jonathan Huberdeau – 19GP – 16G (draft season)
    ’16 – Anthony Beauvillier – 21GP – 15G (draft+1)
    ’05 – Sidney Crosby – 13GP – 14G (draft season)
    ’14 – Jonathan Drouin – 16GP – 13G (draft+1)
    ’12 – Nathan MacKinnon – 17GP – 13G (draft-1)
    ’11 – Jean-Gabriel Pageau – 24GP – 13G (draft season)

    Either way, he’s in very elite territory. Everyone on this list has at least one season of 19 goals or more in the NHL.

    His current draft ranking range is between 12 to 29.

    Scouts on Lavoie:
    Sam Conentino – SportsNetFeb. 13th: “One of the biggest enigmas in this draft class, his matter-of-fact attitude is displayed on and off the ice. It always comes back to skill and he has a lot of that to offer.”

    Steve Kournianos – Sporting NewsJan. 31st: “Few bigger forwards in the 2019 group can motor and handle the puck as well as Lavoie, who plays with confidence while controlling the puck. He’s a sound decision maker and can score goals from just about anywhere in the offensive zone.”

    Hannah Stuart – theScoreJan. 9th: “The projected power forward has an accurate and heavy shot, while he’s good at protecting the puck.”

    Sam Cosentino – Sportsnet – Dec. 12th: “A full array of tools from which to draw and all of them are NHL calibre. Playing with the full toolbox every night is a challenge.”

    Sam Cosentino – SportsNet – Nov. 7th: “Great hands with the ability to work in tight spaces. Combined with acute shooting ability, he is a threat every time he crosses the blue line.”

    Steve Kournianos – The Draft Analyst – Nov. 5th: “Big-bodied goal scorer with very good speed and can stickhandle his way around any jam.”

  108. ArmchairGM says:

    Oil2Oilers:
    As LT has taught me prospects, especially D prospects will break your heart. The future looks so bright for the Oilers D prospects right now, but what is realistic 1/3 working out? Or are the odds slightly better as they are all at least draft +1?

    Samorukov, great season – unbelievable playoffs
    Bouchard, ok season – draft pedigree needed skill set
    Bear, injury hurt his season early and late – but a cannon of a shot
    Lagesson, best AHL defenseman – not exciting but ready
    Persson, SHL prodigy – boom or bust transition to NHL
    Jones, wheels for days – ready plus cover both sides

    So 2/6 working out in the next 18 months? Hard not to dream of 3 or 4 but 2 could change the McDavid prime years for the team.

    IMO Jones has already proved – albeit in a small sample size – that he is NHL-ready. He played NHL 3rd pair this season with non-NHL partners and had fair results. He would eat up those minutes if paired with an NHL defenseman like Sekera or Benning.

    If I were a betting man I’d place a reasonable sum on the Lagesson-Jones pairing being able to achieve a 50 GF% as an NHL 3rd pairing next season.

  109. Genjutsu says:

    Gambardella has been a favorite of your to punch through for some time.

    I’ve seen you be right about these things enough to be on board. I think the math and the eye are lining on for this to be so.

    I wonder if we don’t see 3 or 4 players break through come fall. Marody, Currie, Gambardella, Benson, Russell. Then there is the flood of D that might be ready.

    It’s a weird feeling having too much talent and not enough roster to put them all on. With Ken Holland coming in I don’t expect that to change any time soon.

  110. ArmchairGM says:

    Professor Q: Maroon and Rob Thomas (should be numbers 5 and 20).

    Jake Allen, too.

    They just need to sign Brooks Orpik and pair him with Vince Dunn.

    Brooks and Dunn. Nice.

  111. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: We do need to realize that he is quite bit older than the rest of the real prospects, 25, but, at the same time, I agree with your post and think he has a real shot to become a legit NHL 4th line energy player. He knows where to go on the ice and is just tenacious on the forecheck.A good two way game and can PK. I wish he was a bit faster but I think his skating is indeed good enough.

    This is why I was glad we signed him – his game translates into the bottom six quite well, despite the hype being about his top-6 success in college. He could end up just about anywhere in the lineup on any given night, similar to Kassian.

  112. ArmchairGM says:

    barry.moore23: OP,

    Second the Defmn comment above. Thanks for all of the updates over the past AHL and CHL playoffs etc.Appreciate it.

    I as well. Thanks OP!

  113. Reja says:

    YKOil: And I’ll say again:

    That 8th pick has become far too valuable to waste away like that. Would rather carry Lucic. If the 8th is traded straight up then it’s part of a package to snag a player like Huberdeau.

    That said, if Arizona is looking at some sort of package where they pick Lucic up (after the bonus) and flip the 14th for the 8th… then maybe I take that call. I like Soderstrom.

    And even then, if there is a Lucic for Eriksson deal out there then I make that trade and keep the 8th. Dropping a year of term is worthwhile and I would genuinely like to see what Eriksson could do; if it doesn’t work out it is MUCH easier to trade Eriksson than Lucic imo.

    I felt like it was Lucic last game as a Oiler when the season ended without Pete around. I think he’ll Waive his no move list to just about any team the key is no retention and this is one of the scenarios that I could possibly see playing out besides a bad contract coming back or other assets leaving with him.

  114. Waiting for a cup says:

    OriginalPouzar,
    One will break camp with edmonton this year. One will break camp with the team next year and the third will be in Seattle.

  115. slopitch says:

    YKOil: And I’ll say again:

    That 8th pick has become far too valuable to waste away like that. Would rather carry Lucic. If the 8th is traded straight up then it’s part of a package to snag a player like Huberdeau.

    That said, if Arizona is looking at some sort of package where they pick Lucic up (after the bonus) and flip the 14th for the 8th… then maybe I take that call. I like Soderstrom.

    And even then, if there is a Lucic for Eriksson deal out there then I make that trade and keep the 8th. Dropping a year of term is worthwhile and I would genuinely like to see what Eriksson could do; if it doesn’t work out it is MUCH easier to trade Eriksson than Lucic imo.

    Agreed. That Arizona trade is tempting. Does kinda depend on which forwards slide.

  116. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    who: I’m going to predict that 3 of these guys become everyday NHL dmen. Jones, Bouchard and Samarukov.. I don’t think that’s a stretch at all.
    The other 3 guys,who knows?

    – There was no one who didn’t believe that Pool wasn’t going to be a top-6 winger 3 years after he was drafted. 2 years ago when Kailer lite up pre-season, and was Conner’s winger for game 1: you’d be hard pressed to find anyone who said that 3 years later, both of them are massive disappointments, both with injuries requiring surgery that will stunt development further, both more likely to be out of NHL than effective skill wingers on scoring lines today IMO

    – Now the number of D that have promise is a good sign (rather than relying on only Bouchard to be bona-fide), so the law of large numbers gives hope, but Kailer and Pool have failed to date.

    – And D take even longer to develop. They have done a good job of keeping all the D in development leagues for the first few years of their first contracts, so there’s that as well.

    – Just sayin’

  117. OriginalPouzar says:

    The only things that have been 6 massive disappointments about Yamamoto are (a) the injuries this year and (b) the clearly unrealistic expectations that have been put on the timeline for his development.

    Yamamoto was a 22nd overall draft pick – he was not a top 10 pick and reasonable expectations for a 22nd overall pick are for zero NHL games at this point in his career. The fact that management put him in to NHL games in his draft plus 1 season, in my opinion, has helped lead to unrealistic expectations regarding when he should be in the NHL.

    Jordan Eberle was a 22nd overall pick and spend his draft plus 1 and draft plus 2 seasons in junior.

    For those that have spent time watching the Condors, they can state that, once Kailer gained some traction in the AHL he became a high end AHL player – he started to drive offence and create scoring chances consistently playing with 3rd line AHL linemates (Vesel, Esposito). Once he gained traction he played like an all-star level AHL player.

    Injuries have derailed his season and perhaps they create cause from some concern going forward but he’s shown to be a high end AHL player and, assuming healthy, once given a good 40 games in the AHL next year (place him there in October and forget about him until 2020), I posit he’ll score at a PPG pace and create some NHL readiness in his game.

  118. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    The only things that have been 6 massive disappointments about Yamamoto are (a) the injuries this year and (b) the clearly unrealistic expectations that have been put on the timeline for his development.

    – I posit that suggesting that multiple D are “NHL ready”, and that many are going to be bona-fide NHL D is an unrealistic expectations.

    – And back to Kailer: wrist injuries derail careers. And Kailer wasn’t scoring at Eberle rates, and wasn’t a WJC stalwart: he’s a less promising prospect that Ebs was IMO. Kailer can only play with a slick C and score goals. At least Pool maybe he could be a 4rht line banger with plus skill slotted there given his size

    – And Pool: he’s been a massive disappointment as well: whether that’s on him, his injuries, the development, or just a bad pick by the scouting: it’s not a lock projecting prospects

    – They could both be done: coming back too early from injury, or not 100% ever, and they lose another off-season of development. This is a real probability.

    – If we follow the path of the last decade plus: Sek, Russel Benning will be gone, because we have these NHL ready D, and if/when Klef or Lasrsson miss their normal amount of games,we are going to have 3-4 overwhelmed D who shouldn’t be here, and everyone slotted too high

    – And the other Forwards we are projecting into the NHL next year: Cooper and Benson, both have injury backgrounds and not nearly as high ceilings at Pool and Kailer: so not sure what to “project” for them: at best replacement level 3rd liners next year, maybe?

    – All the team should be doing is continue the development, as the trend is positive.

    – Maybe at the start of the season after next you have a D who can play top-4 D with a better partner, and another who can be the 6th D with a better partner.

    – That’s my asset management take

  119. Lowetide says:

    For The Athletic: Is Joe Gambardella destined to become the Oilers next Fernando Pisani?

    https://theathletic.com/974047/2019/05/13/is-joe-gambardella-destined-to-become-the-oilers-next-fernando-pisani/

  120. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    The only things that have been 6 massive disappointments about Yamamoto are (a) the injuries this year and (b) the clearly unrealistic expectations that have been put on the timeline for his development.

    Pure skill players don’t spend much time in the AHL if they’re going to become NHL regulars.

  121. Reja says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – I posit that suggesting that multiple D are “NHL ready”, and that many are going to be bona-fide NHL D is an unrealistic expectations.

    – And back to Kailer: wrist injuries derail careers. And Kailer wasn’t scoring at Eberle rates, and wasn’t a WJC stalwart: he’s a less promising prospect that Ebs was IMO.Kailer can only play with a slick C and score goals.At least Pool maybe he could be a 4rht line banger with plus skill slotted there given his size

    – And Pool: he’s been a massive disappointment as well: whether that’s on him, his injuries, the development, or just a bad pick by the scouting: it’s not a lock projecting prospects

    – They could both be done: coming back too early from injury, or not 100% ever, and they lose another off-season of development.This is a real probability.

    – If we follow the path of the last decade plus: Sek, Russel Benning will be gone, because we have these NHL ready D, and if/when Klef or Lasrsson miss their normal amount of games,we are going to have 3-4 overwhelmed D who shouldn’t be here, and everyone slotted too high

    – And the other Forwards we are projecting into the NHL next year: Cooper and Benson, both have injury backgrounds and not nearly as high ceilings at Pool and Kailer: so not sure what to “project” for them: at best replacement level 3rd liners next year, maybe?

    – All the team should be doing is continue the development, as the trend is positive.

    – Maybe at the start of the season after next you have a D who can play top-4 D with a better partner, and another who can be the 6th D with a better partner.

    – That’s my asset management take

    No way is Holland putting any faith in Jesse or yamo to be impactful or even NHLers this year why would he.

  122. jp says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:

    – And back to Kailer: wrist injuries derail careers. And Kailer wasn’t scoring at Eberle rates, and wasn’t a WJC stalwart: he’s a less promising prospect that Ebs was IMO.Kailer can only play with a slick C and score goals.At least Pool maybe he could be a 4rht line banger with plus skill slotted there given his size

    You’re right to temper expectations generally.

    On Yamamoto, FWIW he actually outscored Eberle by a considerable margin in the WHL.

    Yamamoto was 7 months older in his draft year, so I’ll include draft -1 for Yamamoto too.

    Eberle
    Draft yr 1.07PPG
    Draft +1 1.21PPG
    Draft +2 1.86PPG

    Yamamoto
    Draft -1 1.25PPG
    Draft yr 1.52PPG
    Draft +1 1.60PPG
    Draft +2 NHL/AHL

    I guess Eberle’s draft +2 is comparable to Yamamoto’s draft +1 when accounting for age? Otherwise Yamamoto was clearly ahead scoring wise.

    Yamamoto may now be a less promising prospect than Eberle was coming out of junior, but we should really give this kid a chance to play a little pro hockey before writing him off.

  123. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    jp: You’re right to temper expectations generally.

    Yamamoto may now be a less promising prospect than Eberle was coming out of junior, but we should really give this kid a chance to play a little pro hockey before writing him off.

    – I’m not writing him off: I just thing that wrist injury, only ok results when he was AHL (where as LT points out he should be lighting it up. The chances of Kailer being a bust though are much higher than we he was a magic bean: that’s how it works.

    – And Ebs, he was a much higher-touted prospect than Kailer at all stages of development. Kailer was not a the same level or a WJC selection: regardless of the PPG in junoir on differetn teams in different eras.

    – At least we won’t be pencilling in either Pool and Kailer to play with skill and produce next year: so there is that.

  124. Reja says:

    jp: You’re right to temper expectations generally.

    On Yamamoto, FWIW he actually outscored Eberle by a considerable margin in the WHL.

    Yamamoto was 7 months older in his draft year, so I’ll include draft -1 for Yamamoto too.

    Eberle
    Draft yr 1.07PPG
    Draft +1 1.21PPG
    Draft +2 1.86PPG

    Yamamoto
    Draft -1 1.25PPG
    Draft yr 1.52PPG
    Draft +1 1.60PPG
    Draft +2 NHL/AHL

    I guess Eberle’s draft +2 is comparable to Yamamoto’s draft +1 when accounting for age? Otherwise Yamamoto was clearly ahead scoring wise.

    Yamamoto may now be a less promising prospect than Eberle was coming out of junior, but we should really give this kid a chance to play a little pro hockey before writing him off.

    Holland’s biological clock is ticking he’s gonna find 2 skilled wingers to play in the top 6-9 he’s not gonna piss around waiting for Pete’s not looking good draft picks to make a about face.

  125. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Reja: Holland’s biological clock is ticking he’s gonna find 2 skilled wingers to play in the top 6-9he’s not gonna piss around waiting for Pete’s not looking good draft picks to make a about face.

    – Yeah: I have no doubt that as playoffs this year is the goal, they can do things to improve the team this year to do that, at the expense of a longer term ceiling.

    – You can get rid of Lucic, trade Kailer and Pool, cash Russell, save some money on a Sek move, do a buy-out, move draft picks, and be immediately better next year

  126. who says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – There was no one who didn’t believe that Pool wasn’t going to be a top-6 winger 3 years after he was drafted.2 years ago when Kailer lite up pre-season, and was Conner’s winger for game 1: you’d be hard pressed to find anyone who said that 3 years later, both of them are massive disappointments, both with injuries requiring surgery that will stunt development further, both more likely to be out of NHL than effective skill wingers on scoring lines today IMO

    – Now the number of D that have promise is a good sign (rather than relying on only Bouchard to be bona-fide), so the law of large numbers gives hope, but Kailer and Pool have failed to date.

    – And D take even longer to develop.They have done a good job of keeping all the D in development leagues for the first few years of their first contracts, so there’s that as well.

    – Just sayin’

    You make some good points, but I don’t think JP and Yamo are good comparables for our d prospects, other than Bouchard maybe.
    Here’s why;
    Both wingers were 1st round picks who are exhibiting some down arrows after turning pro.
    Bouchard was a 1st round pick, but I don’t see many down arrows yet. At worst he will be a 3rd pairing righty dman who can run a powerplay. Jones and Samarukov were mid round picks who have improved their prospect status since being drafted. They are trending up. I’ve seen enough of Jones to project him as a 3rd pairing guy at minimum. Samarukov is a little further away but I think his ceiling may be higher.
    I don’t think I have any of these guys rated too high. For instance, wouldn’t they all be considered better prospects than Taylor Chorney at the same age?
    I also think you are a little pessimistic on the 2 wingers. I think both will have NHL careers. They just might not be as productive offensively as we had hoped.

  127. jp says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – I’m not writing him off: I just thing that wrist injury, only ok results when he was AHL (where as LT points out he should be lighting it up.The chances of Kailer being a bust though are much higher than we he was a magic bean: that’s how it works.

    – And Ebs, he was a much higher-touted prospect than Kailer at all stages of development.Kailer was not a the same level or a WJC selection: regardless of the PPG in junoir on differetn teams in different eras.

    – At least we won’t be pencilling in either Pool and Kailer to play with skill and produce next year: so there is that.

    Agreed his wrist injury and AHL production this year are down arrows. And yes, he may not make it.

    That said, I disagree that Eberle was higher-touted at all stages. Eberle got famous largely from his two WJC performances. They were both 22nd overall picks. Yamamoto played in the WJC for the US, as well as the Hlinka, U18 and U17. Won medals at all of them. Led the Hlinka and U18 in goals.

    I think he still has a real good chance to be a useful player. Time will tell, and very much agreed it’s good that he and Puljujarvi won’t be expected to be top 6 players for the Oilers in 19-20.

  128. jp says:

    Reja: Holland’s biological clock is ticking he’s gonna find 2 skilled wingers to play in the top 6-9he’s not gonna piss around waiting for Pete’s not looking good draft picks to make a about face.

    These are completely unrelated points. No one has suggested Holland shouldn’t improve the Oilers roster because Pujljuarvi and Yamamoto are in the system.

  129. Reja says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Yeah: I have no doubt that as playoffs this year is the goal, they can do things to improve the team this year to do that, at the expense of a longer term ceiling.

    – You can get rid of Lucic, trade Kailer and Pool, cash Russell, save some money on a Sek move, do a buy-out, move draft picks, and be immediately better next year

    We need to get Leon Connor off the PK and reduce there minutes 5 on 5 if they continue at this pace they’ll be on Disability insurance due exhaustion in 3 years.

  130. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: Pure skill players don’t spend much time in the AHL if they’re going to become NHL regulars.

    but he didn’t spend much time in the AHL, at least not playing games.

    When he did play (and gained some traction), he showed he is a top player in the league as far as creating scoring chances.

    I would predict that, assuming he’s healthy, if he gets 40 straight games as a Condor next year starting in October, he’ll be at, near or over a PPG and be in the conversation for recall.

  131. godot10 says:

    Lowetide: Pure skill players don’t spend much time in the AHL if they’re going to become NHL regulars.

    Pure skill smaller guys like Yamamoto drafted outside of the top five do typically spend two years in the AHL.

    There are an exception or two, like Eberle.

    TeamNOTCaufield

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