The Production Line

Life comes at you quickly when the pipeline sends Evan Bouchard, Dmitri Samorukov and Joel Persson down the chute in one summer. It’s happened beforein 2017, when Ethan Bear and Caleb Jones turned pro, and William Lagesson damned near did, too. What will the Oilers depth chart, and the Condors depth chart, look like on defense opening night?

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group. INSANE OFFER IS HERE!

  • New Lowetide: Dmitri Samorukov is off to the Memorial Cup and is the Oilers’ fastest rising prospect
  • New Jonathan Willis: Craig MacTavish leaves the Oilers, signalling the first major front office change under Ken Holland
  • New Lowetide: What kind of coach should Ken Holland hire for the Oilers?
  • New Jonathan Willis: Every Oilers AHL prospect, rated by how close they are to the NHL
  • New Jonathan Willis: A resurgent Andrej Sekera gives the Oilers much-needed defensive options
  • New Lowetide: Is Joe Gambardella destined to become the Oilers’ next Fernando Pisani?
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Protector, supporter, confidant: Connor McDavid’s mom, Kelly, is his off-ice rock through good times and bad
  • Lowetide: An offseason plan for Ken Holland to remodel the Oilers roster.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland steadfast that buck stops with him as new Oilers GM.
  • Lowetide: How will Ken Holland proceed in Year 1 as Oilers general manager?
  • Jonathan Willis: What does the arrival of Ken Holland mean for the Oilers coaching search?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Prioritizing the roster issues that await Ken Holland in Edmonton.
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s procurement list for his rumored move to Edmonton will include front-office personnel
  • Jonathan Willis: A Milan Lucic trade is at the top of the to-do list for the Oilers’ next GM.

MOVE ‘EM OUT, RAWHIDE!

Opening nights can change in a quick hurry when the farm system is producing at a rapid clip. Consider the 2015-16 opener for the Oilers and Condors, with a pack of blue on the way 12 months ahead. Here’s ’15-16 opening night:

Edmonton deployed veterans on the top two pairs, a rookie in Reinhart (who would soon lose his job to Nurse) and another rookie in Brandon Davidson. In the minors, it was go time (NHL or gone) for Brad Hunt.

So when we (I) say “damned Oilers gave up on Hunt!” the fact is there had to be turnover to make room for new talent. Once a defenseman sees his entry deal end, highway to the Danger Zone. Here’s ’16-17 opening night:

Chiarelli totally reworked the NHL RHD, and gave himself more options for recall from the minors. Benning was on both opening night rosters, but the Condors had some good recall options on the opening night depth chart. This group is the playoff team and the biggest difference in quality was injury. Until Sekera went down against Anaheim, the team was close to flush was qualified blue. Here’s ’17-18, again both teams opening night:

The injury to Sekera happened in spring, but by fall Chiarelli had talked himself into re-signing Russell as good enough to cover the position. It didn’t go well. I always thought Todd McLellan missed an opportunity by not using Auvitu properly. That guy was skilled, the power play needed help. This was a tough season for the top pairing, they needed more substantial help. None was coming. Here’s ’18-19:

Todd McLellan’s final Oilers team featured more youth than he would have been comfortable with, owing to Andrej Sekera’s late summer injury. Chiarelli spent the winter trading assets to tweak but in the end there were no survivors. This team needed a second pair to slot in before Nurse-Benning. Here’s projected ’19-20:

One thing that hits me when looking at the projection: There are more good things here than ’17-18 opening night. What does that mean? Well, two things. First: Ken Holland could deal from strength to address weakness, using (possibly) Ethan Bear or William Lagesson as trade bait. I wouldn’t use Benning until one of the kids forces the issue.

The second item is this: Holland could stand pat on defense and it wouldn’t be a disaster. The team needs a second pair RH option who can move the puck, but waiting a year might give the team an internal solution in Evan Bouchard. Maybe less than a year. I’m not saying stay the course no matter what on defense, but do believe it’s an option worth considering.

There are several interesting names on this list that make sense for the Oilers, including Colin Miller and Connor Brown. Milan Lucic makes an appearance, that will be a creative deal should it come to pass.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260. We kickstart a long weekend with a great lineup of guests and a beautiful forecast. Steve Lansky from BigMouthSports will join me to talk MacT in Russia and the NHL officiating controversy. Gerry Moddejonge from PostMedia talks Eskimos and 2019 expectations, while Matt Iwanyk stops in to talk golf, CFL and personal improvement. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Friday bitches!

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149 Responses to "The Production Line"

  1. Jethro Tull says:

    Lana. Lana. Lana. LANAAAAA!…….Danger zone!

    Lucic for Kessel.

    Some nuce talent. Needs expert evaluation and usage from Dutch. If they don’t figure as either roster, depth or in development, trade them. What would be criminal would be ro let them wither on the vine.

    Still, too many bums for seats is better than the other way around.

  2. Mustard Tiger says:

    Kessel is exactly what this team needs, at a reasonable cap hit. Make it so!

  3. russ99 says:

    Benning’s situation reminds me of Cam Barker.

    He’s still young enough, has a reasonable cap hit and has some potential, so let’s move him for a good asset while he has a high value.

    Moving one of our top D prospects and keeping Benning because of RH Corsi would be a bad move. What non-CF% factor makes anyone believe he’ll be a solution in the top 6?

  4. OriginalPouzar says:

    Guess what starts tonight? The Memorial Cup – ya baby!

    Guelph plays tomorrow (Sat) at 1:30 mountain and Sunday at 5 mountain – perfect for a rainy long weekend.

    Halifax and Safin play this evening but Safin has not been a material player for the Moosehead this year.

    He missed pretty much all of camp with injury and then, after playing some early games missed the majority of the season with injury. Came back a bit before the playoffs but has been a non-factor completely. I have not seen him play at all this year but, from accounts, he has not been good at all and his skating has been awful.

    I wonder if the Oil will want him back in the Q for an over-age season as opposed to going to the Bake?

  5. RumBurgundy says:

    How’d you get life insurance Lana? Don’t they know you’re in … Daaaangerzooone

  6. OriginalPouzar says:

    “What will the Oilers depth chart, and the Condors depth chart, look like on defense opening night?”

    ———————-

    I think that Holland is generally OK with the defence and will focus on a top 6 forward (Nyquist level), a goalie.

    My depth chart below is predicated on a Russell disposition for cap space to feed the above acquisitions. There is a large hole at 2RD and I’m going to assume this does not get filled for the purpose of this exercise:

    Klefbom/Larsson
    Nurse/Benning
    Sekera/Jones

    Persson

    Lagesson/Bear
    Lowe/Bouchard
    Samorukov/Day

    Sekera and Benning could flip spots.

  7. Ben says:

    russ99:
    Benning’s situation reminds me of Cam Barker.

    He’s still young enough, has a reasonable cap hit and has some potential, so let’s move him for a good asset while he has a high value.

    Moving one of our top D prospects and keeping Benning because of RH Corsi would be a bad move. What non-CF% factor makes anyone believe he’ll be a solution in the top 6?

    I don’t think ‘Cam Barker’ means what you think it means. Benning is a capable, tough young defender good for 15 minutes a night. Cam Barker was a deleted scene from Fantasia.

  8. OriginalPouzar says:

    Its interesting, most of us, including me, project Samorukov spending at least one full year if not two full years in the AHL before really being an NHL option.

    With that said, recall, the Ottawa 67s radio play by play guy sung Samorukov’s praises during the series and said he was NHL ready and, now, Sam Cosentino states that Samorukov is the 2nd most NHL-ready prospect in the Memorial Cup, behind only Dobson.

  9. jp says:

    russ99:
    Benning’s situation reminds me of Cam Barker.

    He’s still young enough, has a reasonable cap hit and has some potential, so let’s move him for a good asset while he has a high value.

    Moving one of our top D prospects and keeping Benning because of RH Corsi would be a bad move. What non-CF% factor makes anyone believe he’ll be a solution in the top 6?

    Why do you keep saying the only thing to recommend Benning is Corsi? His shot metrics are good also and his GF-GA results are even better.

    To answer your question, goal differential is what makes me, and others, believe Benning is useful. If I’m not mistaken he has the best goal differential on the Oilers save Connor over the course of his career.

  10. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    russ99,

    Moving one of our top D prospects and keeping Benning because of RH Corsi would be a bad move.

    Is that Jim Corsi’s cousin Ronald Hubert Corsi?

  11. Ben says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    russ99,

    Moving one of our top D prospects and keeping Benning because of RH Corsi would be a bad move.

    Is that Jim Corsi’s cousin Ronald Hubert Corsi?

    That’s “right-handed Corsi”. His left-handed Corsi is, understandably, abysmal.

  12. Side says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Its interesting, most of us, including me, project Samorukov spending at least one full year if not two full years in the AHL before really being an NHL option.

    With that said, recall, the Ottawa 67s radio play by play guy sung Samorukov’s praises during the series and said he was NHL ready and, now, Sam Cosentino states that Samorukov is the 2nd most NHL-ready prospect in the Memorial Cup, behind only Dobson.

    I have to say, I appreciate your and other posters coverage of these prospects on this site. Makes it easier to get excited about prospects like Samorukov.

  13. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    russ99,

    What non-CF% factor makes anyone believe he’ll be a solution in the top 6?

    18/19 5v5 Goal Share (Goals!!) EDM Dmen (500+ min)
    Player GF%
    Matthew Benning 55.8
    Kris Russell 50.5
    Darnell Nurse 46.3
    Oscar Klefbom 40.0
    Adam Larsson 36.9

    17/18 5v5 Goal Share (Goals!!) EDM Dmen (500+ min)
    Player GF%
    Darnell Nurse 55.2
    Matthew Benning 51.6
    Adam Larsson 50.0
    Kris Russell 44.7
    Oscar Klefbom 43.6

    Seems like Benning has been a top 6 solution for 2 years.

    Goals Russ.

    Do goals grab your nipples and twist them like corsi does?

  14. gimme shelter says:

    Two names are poor Edmonton evaluation. Jordan Oestrele who is in Arizona. David Musil who as we speak is playing in the World’s for the Czech’s. I think 7D.
    Maybe Kemp turns pro from Uni and goes to California pushing Brandon to ECHL.
    The top 5 in Bakersfield will be pushing for NHL minutes sometime this year or be there after training camp.I like how you showed by box who was playing where by year.

  15. Glovjuice says:

    RumBurgundy:
    How’d you get life insurance Lana?Don’t they know you’re in … Daaaangerzooone

    Lana Del Ray is one talented, gorgeous babe. You dudes are on fire. Oh, in Jasper for the May long having a Raised by Wolves IPA for breakfast. Athabaska falls next.

  16. oilersfan says:

    Why do we insist on 1-2 years in the minors for all the D men?

    Charlie McAvoy and Brandon Carlo went to the nhl one year after they were drafted and here they are going to the Stanley cup finals 2 seasons later, with McAvoy playing top four minutes and competition

  17. Ben says:

    oilersfan: Why do we insist on 1-2 years in the minors for all the D men?

    Because Holland apparently doesn’t bring up prospects until they’re mushy, spotted, overly sweet and appropriate for baking.

  18. bwar says:

    So who are the casualties in Bakersfield? Logan Day, Jake Kulevich and Ryan Stanton. Kulevich probably won’t be missed. Stanton would have been a nice veteran presence to put beside Bouchard or Samorukov. Day is a loss, he had a great season but I imagine he will land on another farm team in the AHL, 34 points as a rookie defensemen and most points by a Condors defender someone will gladly take that from us for free.

  19. Jethro Tull says:

    Glovjuice: Lana Del Ray is one talented, gorgeous babe.You dudes are on fire. Oh, in Jasper for the May long having a Raised by Wolves IPA for breakfast. Athabaska falls next.

    Wrong Lana. Nice beer. Nice Vacay. Enjoy!

  20. bwar says:

    Joey Laleggia 5th in AHL scoring for defensemen but rocking a solid -14 for the season. Interested to see how his career fares, I don’t really view him as anything more than an AHL lifer but at some point you can’t ignore his production completely.

  21. godot10 says:

    russ99:
    Benning’s situation reminds me of Cam Barker.

    He’s still young enough, has a reasonable cap hit and has some potential, so let’s move him for a good asset while he has a high value.

    Moving one of our top D prospects and keeping Benning because of RH Corsi would be a bad move. What non-CF% factor makes anyone believe he’ll be a solution in the top 6?

    It is time to ring the cash register on Benning (if Russell cannot be traded). Tampa needs a cheap legit right shot depth D. Benning for JT Miller modulo stuff.

    There is risk in doing this, but the Oilers have lots of bets for third pairing RD. Persson, Manning, Jones, Bouchard, Lagesson, Bear.

    The Oilers won’t be able to afford Benning next summer anyways, when he goes to arbitration. We know who this defensemen is.

  22. silasbengtsson says:

    russ99,

    If it was just Corsi, sure, but it’s not. He consistently wins goal share battle in a way not many bottom pairing guys do. I don’t think I recall him getting much of an offensive push, either.

    If we’re moving him, we have to hope his replacement shows the same ability to win the goal share battle or else we’ll be digging ourselves in a bigger hole.

  23. godot10 says:

    oilersfan:
    Why do we insist on 1-2 years in the minors for all the D men?

    Charlie McAvoy and BrandonCarlo went to the nhl one year after they were drafted and here they are going to the Stanley cup finals 2 seasons later, with McAvoy playing top four minutes and competition

    Last time I checked, those guys in Boston didn’t have to play with Kris Russell as a D partner. The OIlers don’t have Pronger or Chara. Nurse and Klefbom aren’t ready to carry a raw rookie.

    Larsson and Sekera could on a 3rd pairing (like James Patrick did for nearly a decade in Buffalo).

  24. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Its interesting, most of us, including me, project Samorukov spending at least one full year if not two full years in the AHL before really being an NHL option.

    With that said, recall, the Ottawa 67s radio play by play guy sung Samorukov’s praises during the series and said he was NHL ready and, now, Sam Cosentino states that Samorukov is the 2nd most NHL-ready prospect in the Memorial Cup, behind only Dobson.

    This may be true but on third pairing. Lots of candidates for the both sides of the 3 D. Start him in the AHL and let him force the team to bring him up. It is the right thing to do. We are getting to a very nice place for our D. The trick is to now let them earn it.

  25. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    For the record I think slotting Benning at 2RD is a bad idea.

    3RD is all you can expect so far in his career.

  26. pts2pndr says:

    My question to the lowetide community is which is better, trade a prospect whose value is yet to be determined or a veteran that is borderline and on a over valued contract. Is the experience factor worth losing the young players getting the required reps.

  27. Glovjuice says:

    Jethro Tull: Wrong Lana. Nice beer. Nice Vacay. Enjoy!

    Yeah; sure is (even better than Fat Tug); pre-camping Cabin splurge; Cheers ! Thanks

  28. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    oilersfan:
    Why do we insist on 1-2 years in the minors for all the D men?

    Charlie McAvoy and BrandonCarlo went to the nhl one year after they were drafted and here they are going to the Stanley cup finals 2 seasons later, with McAvoy playing top four minutes and competition

    – When Bouchard or Jones come up: they won’t be touted as a future Norris winner, and won’t be slotted too high, and will play with better D partners with experience and allowed to grow. they won’t be the back-bone of D that the coaches get mad at for not listening

    – When you are a good team, you can have guys like Chara, Krug, Moore, Miller etc: they play and help young D develop

    – If Sek was healthy the last two years: he would have been a great mentor. (I’d bet a lot that Sek circa 2016-Benning would be a great 2nd pair) But you can’t call up D and slot them too high when the rest of D and team sucks: Nurse sucked when he was 1st pairing, Benning and Nurse on 2nd pairing was crazy talk in the past, Bear for a bit on 3rd pair was fine then not, Jones was fine untill he had to play 1st pair. Jultz would have been great if used properly.

  29. Glovjuice says:

    godot10: It is time to ring the cash register on Benning (if Russell cannot be traded).Tampa needs a cheap legit right shot depth D.Benning for JT Miller modulo stuff.

    There is risk in doing this, but the Oilers have lots of bets for third pairing RD.Persson, Manning, Jones, Bouchard, Lagesson, Bear.

    The Oilers won’t be able to afford Benning next summer anyways, when he goes to arbitration.We know who this defensemen is.

    Agreed 100%. Sell highish for once.

  30. Glovjuice says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    For the record I think slotting Benning at 2RD is a bad idea.

    3RD is all you can expect so far in his career.

    Yeah, he is very far from being a 2nd pair D. VERY FAR. Too slow in retrievals.

  31. Pescador says:

    godot10: It is time to ring the cash register on Benning (if Russell cannot be traded).Tampa needs a cheap legit right shot depth D.Benning for JT Miller modulo stuff.

    There is risk in doing this, but the Oilers have lots of bets for third pairing RD.Persson, Manning, Jones, Bouchard, Lagesson, Bear.

    The Oilers won’t be able to afford Benning next summer anyways, when he goes to arbitration.We know who this defensemen is.

    Cashing Benning is not a wise decision unless Holland can trade for an actual 2RD.
    I can’t believe how hard it is to find an upgrade on Kris Russell,
    or maybe we just don’t recognize competent GM’ing?
    Manning is not an NHL option for anything other than a cap dump or a buyout.

  32. pts2pndr says:

    silasbengtsson:
    russ99,

    If it was just Corsi, sure, but it’s not. He consistently wins goal share battle in a way not many bottom pairing guys do. I don’t think I recall him getting much of an offensive push, either.

    If we’re moving him, we have to hope his replacement shows the same ability to win the goal share battle or else we’ll be digging ourselves in a bigger hole.

    He has also had some concussion problems. Given that he is a right D I would shop him but he does have value so I wouldn’t give him away. He would be a good 7 D for this year. In my opinion one or both of Sekera and Russel should be the move.

  33. Munny says:

    godot10,

    I am shocked, Godot, that YOU of all people are trading away defenders just as they are about to hit their prime.

    Don’t you know that the Oil have a history of doing away with actual NHL players in their mid-20s? 😉

    MWHAHAHAHA!

  34. Ice Sage says:

    Glovjuice: Yeah; sure is (even better than Fat Tug); pre-camping Cabin splurge; Cheers ! Thanks

    I love vacations where I get a fat tug…
    There are many shoes yet to drop this summer, gonna be fun!

  35. jtblack says:

    Glovjuice: Yeah, he is very far from being a 2nd pair D. VERY FAR. Too slow in retrievals.

    Yup. Boots wont allow him to be higher in the Lineup. And his other attributes don’t make up for the slow boots. Def good #6 / #7 guy for depth

  36. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Its interesting, most of us, including me, project Samorukov spending at least one full year if not two full years in the AHL before really being an NHL option.

    With that said, recall, the Ottawa 67s radio play by play guy sung Samorukov’s praises during the series and said he was NHL ready and, now, Sam Cosentino states that Samorukov is the 2nd most NHL-ready prospect in the Memorial Cup, behind only Dobson.

    The only thing that matters is this: what does Holland think?

  37. russ99 says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    The numbers look so good when it comes to scoring, so you’ll overlook the other end of the ice.

    Where’s Ricki when I need him, lol.

  38. Munny says:

    If anyone starts telling you +/- is an important stat for individual players, tell them to look up Noah Dobson’s stats for this season. Textbook example:

    -30 in 28 games with Acadie.
    +40 in 28 games with Rouyn.

    Same player. Same year. Same # of games. Different team.

    Man that guy turned a corner, lol.

  39. godot10 says:

    Munny:
    godot10,

    I am shocked, Godot, that YOU of all people are trading away defenders just as they are about to hit their prime.

    Don’t you know that the Oil have a history of doing away with actual NHL players in their mid-20s?

    MWHAHAHAHA!

    It is caveated. If Russell cannot be traded. The asset coming back is someone like JT Miller who is of the same age and entering his prime also.

    I’m not advocating trading him for magic beans. I acknowledged that there is a level of risk doing so,

  40. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    russ99,

    What non-CF% factor makes anyone believe he’ll be a solution in the top 6?

    18/19 5v5 Goal Share (Goals!!) EDM Dmen (500+ min)
    PlayerGF%
    Matthew Benning55.8
    Kris Russell50.5
    Darnell Nurse46.3
    Oscar Klefbom40.0
    Adam Larsson36.9

    17/18 5v5 Goal Share (Goals!!) EDM Dmen (500+ min)
    PlayerGF%
    Darnell Nurse55.2
    Matthew Benning51.6
    Adam Larsson50.0
    Kris Russell44.7
    Oscar Klefbom43.6

    Seems like Benning has been a top 6 solution for 2 years.

    Goals Russ.

    Do goals grab your nipples and twist them like corsi does?

    You & Silas beat me to it, but allow me to pile on:

    16/17 5v5 Goal Share (Goals!) EDM Dmen 500+ min
    PlayerGF%
    Andrej Sekera 57.5%
    Matthew Benning 56.8%
    Adam Larsson 56.4%
    Kris Russell 54.7%
    Oscar Klefbom 52.9%
    Darnell Nurse 50.0%
    Eric Gryba 43.6%

    Seems like Benning has been a Top 6 solution for 3 years.

  41. Bruce McCurdy says:

    russ99:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    The numbers look so good when it comes to scoring, so you’ll overlook the other end of the ice.

    Where’s Ricki when I need him, lol.

    Uhh, GF% involves results at both ends of the ice. Benning has been an outscorer in 3 out of 3 years.

  42. Munny says:

    russ99:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    The numbers look so good when it comes to scoring, so you’ll overlook the other end of the ice.

    Where’s Ricki when I need him, lol.

    That was goal share, so the numbers incorporate both ends of the ice, and ignores Corsi over Goals, which would make Ricki happy.

    Speaking of…

    I hope you are doing well, Mr. theBear.

  43. Munny says:

    godot10,

    I think you do everything you can to trade Russell. And it shouldn’t be impossible. Plus the Oil are getting help from a weak UFA year on D.

    Should be able to divest the asset for a 2020 3rd.

  44. Bruce McCurdy says:

    16-19 5v5 Goal Share (Goals!) EDM Dmen 1000+ mins (or 2000, same 6 players)

    Matthew Benning 54.4%
    Darnell Nurse 50.5%
    Kris Russell 49.5%
    Andrej Sekera 48.4%
    Adam Larsson 47.7%
    Oscar Klefbom 46.5%

    Pretty sure QualComp has a fair bit to do with all that, but it still doesn’t support trading out a perfectly fine 3RD with a history of outscoring after investing 3 years & 200 games in his development. It would be an oh-so-Oilers thing to do, but I for one would rather they didn’t.

  45. Munny says:

    Bruce McCurdy: You & Silas beat me to it, but allow me to pile on:

    16/17 5v5 Goal Share (Goals!) EDM Dmen 500+ min
    PlayerGF%
    Andrej Sekera 57.5%
    Matthew Benning 56.8%
    Adam Larsson 56.4%
    Kris Russell 54.7%
    Oscar Klefbom 52.9%
    Darnell Nurse 50.0%
    Eric Gryba 43.6%

    Seems like Benning has been a Top 6 solution for 3 years.

    Personally. I prefer the raw data in these analyses over percentages, and would also prefer that TOI be included side-by.

    Percentages can easily be calculated in one’s head and raw data with TOI also gives us an idea of rates. Not to mention, for all Oiler GF numbers we really should be including the TWM* numbers.

    TWM – Time With McDavid.

  46. russ99 says:

    Munny,

    AKA – it’s a glorified plus-minus.

    Defensive metrics exist, even though they’re hard to get access to. On Ice SV% and Relative GA% would be very instructive.

    Defense is not a zero sum proposition, goals get in. So praising offensive contribution relative to defensive contribution over the opposite seems odd.

    For example, Larsson during various parts of last season.

    This also brings up my biggest issue with using CF% and goal share as a key indicator of determining a defenseman’s value, the idea that scoring goals are vastly more important than preventing goals. And yes, I know posession plays a part in that, but look at the difference between best 10 teams in possession metrics and the worst 10 teams, there’s not a huge margin there.

    The Oilers have been in the bottom quarter of the league in goals allowed for a while, and improving that is a big part of determining when we turn the corner as a playoff team and eventual title contender.

  47. who says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    For the record I think slotting Benning at 2RD is a bad idea.

    3RD is all you can expect so far in his career.

    And that’s why I am in the “trade him” camp. If all he is is a 3RD, and I think we’ve seen enough to make the call, then he is easily replaced by one of the prospects.
    I think Holland needs to trade 1 guy out of the top 6 to make room for 1 of Jones, Lagesson, Bear or Persson. I would consider trading 1 of Russell/Sekera, but not both, as a cap dump.
    But if that deal isn’t there, than Benning should go.

  48. Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR says:

    If Sekara or Russel (on his left side, finally) was paired with Benning on our third pair, I think we’d be pretty happy. we need a #2 RHD, but it’s hard to justify spending assets on acquiring one when we might have 3 that are a year away (Bouch, Perrson, Bear). Patience is the play, but if they could move a LHD for a stopgap RHD, our defence starts to look at least decent.

  49. Munny says:

    russ99,

    See my comment to Bruce.

  50. silasbengtsson says:

    Munny: Personally. I prefer the raw data in these analyses over percentages, and would also prefer that TOI be included side-by.

    Percentages can easily be calculated in one’s head and raw data with TOI also gives us an idea of rates.Not to mention, for all Oiler GF numbers we really should be including the TWM* numbers.

    TWM – Time With McDavid.

    His on-ice GF% from last year sans-McDavid is a clean 50% while his rate with McDavid is ~64%. If you believe this can be easily replicated by any given prospect without changing the dynamic of deployment (giving the new guy softer minutes), then I admire your confidence in historically volatile assets like NHL prospects.

  51. ArmchairGM says:

    Munny: Personally. I prefer the raw data in these analyses over percentages, and would also prefer that TOI be included side-by.

    Percentages can easily be calculated in one’s head and raw data with TOI also gives us an idea of rates.Not to mention, for all Oiler GF numbers we really should be including the TWM* numbers.

    TWM – Time With McDavid.

    As you wish:

    http://naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20162017&thruseason=20182019&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=oi&rate=y&team=EDM&pos=D&loc=B&toi=1000&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single

  52. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    russ99:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    The numbers look so good when it comes to scoring, so you’ll overlook the other end of the ice.

    Where’s Ricki when I need him, lol.

    Russ,

    One day you’ll understand that goal share accounts for both Goals for and Goals against.

    In 18/19 Benning was on the ice for 43 Goals For and 34 Goals against during 5v5 play, which is why his GF% was 55.8%

    I have explained this to your for about 6 years or so.

    One day you’ll get it.

    Hopefully today is that day.

  53. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Russ,

    One day you’ll understand that goal share accounts for both Goals for and Goals against.

    In 18/19 Benning was on the ice for 43 Goals For and 34 Goals against during 5v5 play, which is why his GF% was 55.8%

    I have explained this to your for about 6 years or so.

    One day you’ll get it.

    Hopefully today is that day.

    Here’s an idea for any NHL GM. If a player is over 50% GF. Keep him. If he is at or near 50% without the teams Top Player on the ice, Keep him.

    Edm has had exceptional top end talent since the 2010 draft. Since then the Top End has won the GF% share; only to have the bottom end give it All Back and more.

    Keep Good GFer’s 😊

  54. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    who: And that’s why I am in the “trade him” camp. If all he is is a 3RD, and I think we’ve seen enough to make the call, then he is easily replaced by one of the prospects.
    I think Holland needs to trade 1 guy out of the top 6 to make room for 1 of Jones,Lagesson,Bear or Persson. I would consider trading 1 of Russell/Sekera, but not both, as a cap dump.
    But if that deal isn’t there,than Benning should go.

    That’s fair.

    Especially if the plan is to have Sekera as 3LD and work Jones/Person in at 3RD and 7D.

  55. Hamez says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    russ99,

    Goals Russ.

    Do goals grab your nipples and twist them like corsi does?

    I just spit out my coffee. Thank you.

  56. ArmchairGM says:

    ArmchairGM: As you wish:

    http://naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20162017&thruseason=20182019&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=oi&rate=y&team=EDM&pos=D&loc=B&toi=1000&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single

    Using McDavid as a proxy, GF – GA over the past 3 season at 5v5:

    Benning with: 63 – 43 (885:13)
    Benning w/o: 72 – 70 (2076:58)

    Sekera with: 41 – 28 (681:18)
    Sekera w/o: 33 – 51 (1469:55)

    Larsson with: 87 – 81 (1526:40)
    Larsson w/o: 77 – 99 (2613:57)

    Klefbom with: 78 – 70 (1339:13)
    Klefbom w/o: 61 – 90 (2323:12)

    Russell with: 69 – 51 (1240:37)
    Russell w/o: 68 – 89 (2533:10)

    QualComp means a LOT here, but Benning is the ONLY defender who keeps his head above water without McDavid. Maybe Jones could as well, but we don’t know that yet.

    Don’t throw the baby out with the bathwater.

  57. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    16-19 5v5 Goal Share (Goals!) EDM Dmen 1000+ mins (or 2000, same 6 players)

    Matthew Benning 54.4%
    Darnell Nurse 50.5%
    Kris Russell 49.5%
    Andrej Sekera 48.4%
    Adam Larsson 47.7%
    Oscar Klefbom 46.5%

    Pretty sure QualComp has a fair bit to do with all that, but it still doesn’t support trading out a perfectly fine 3RD with a history of outscoring after investing 3 years & 200 games in his development. It would be an oh-so-Oilers thing to do, but I for one would rather they didn’t.

    There is no question that QoC plays a big part there.

    Munny is right that you always have to look at “without McDavid” results as well.

  58. ArmchairGM says:

    Woodguy v2.0: you always have to look at “without McDavid” results as well.

    Posted just above ^^

  59. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    Has anyone else noticed the weird trend that has transpired in the Eastern conference playoffs this year?

    PIT swept by NYI, who was then swept by CAR, who was then swept by BOS.
    Is BOS destined to be swept by the eventual Western conference champs San Jose Sharks???
    (yes, I am cheering for the sharks. GO SHARKS!!)

  60. jtblack says:

    Crazy Pedestrian:
    Has anyone else noticed the weird trend that has transpired in the Eastern conference playoffs this year?

    PIT swept by NYI, who was then swept by CAR, who was then swept by BOS.
    Is BOS destined to be swept by the eventual Western conference champs San Jose Sharks???
    (yes, I am cheering for the sharks. GO SHARKS!!)

    No. Because BOS is the best team remaining. And was the #2 seed overall coming into the Playoffs.

    After Round 2, they had the best odds to win the Cup.

    Anything can happen, but doubt they are swept

  61. Reja says:

    oilersfan:
    Why do we insist on 1-2 years in the minors for all the D men?

    Charlie McAvoy and BrandonCarlo went to the nhl one year after they were drafted and here they are going to the Stanley cup finals 2 seasons later, with McAvoy playing top four minutes and competition

    Stockholm Syndrome. It’s in the water more than half the Oiler faithful believe it’s not possible

  62. silasbengtsson says:

    russ99:
    Munny,

    AKA – it’s a glorified plus-minus.

    Defensive metrics exist, even though they’re hard to get access to. On Ice SV% and Relative GA% would be very instructive.

    Defense is not a zero sum proposition, goals get in. So praising offensive contribution relative to defensive contribution over the opposite seems odd.

    For example, Larsson during various parts of last season.

    This also brings up my biggest issue with using CF% and goal share as a key indicator of determining a defenseman’s value, the idea that scoring goals are vastly more important than preventing goals. And yes, I know posession plays a part in that, but look at the difference between best 10 teams in possession metrics and the worst 10 teams, there’s not a huge margin there.

    The Oilers have been in the bottom quarter of the league in goals allowed for a while, and improving that is a big part of determining when we turn the corner as a playoff team and eventual title contender.

    For some base level ones:

    Benning’s GA/60 rate is 2.28, the lowest on the among out D that played at least 500 minutes
    That’s a relative rate of -0.44/60

    He plays easier minutes than the top-4 going by Woodmoneys so a lower GA rate is what’s expected of him, but they’re not highly sheltered minutes (iirc). Which other stats should I find? Zone entries? FA? HDCA? HD conversion ratio?

  63. Munny says:

    silasbengtsson: His on-ice GF% from last year sans-McDavid is a clean 50% while his rate with McDavid is ~64%. If you believe this can be easily replicated by any given prospect without changing the dynamic of deployment (giving the new guy softer minutes), then I admire your confidence in historically volatile assets like NHL prospects.

    Don’t believe I mentioned prospects anywhere in my post. Or Benning for that matter. My point is context.

  64. silasbengtsson says:

    ArmchairGM: Using McDavid as a proxy, GF – GA over the past 3 season at 5v5:

    Benning with: 63 – 43 (885:13)
    Benning w/o: 72 – 70 (2076:58)

    Sekera with: 41 – 28 (681:18)
    Sekera w/o: 33 – 51 (1469:55)

    Larsson with: 87 – 81 (1526:40)
    Larsson w/o: 77 – 99 (2613:57)

    Klefbom with: 78 – 70 (1339:13)
    Klefbom w/o: 61 – 90 (2323:12)

    Russell with: 69 – 51 (1240:37)
    Russell w/o: 68 – 89 (2533:10)

    QualComp means a LOT here, but Benning is the ONLY defender who keeps his head above water without McDavid. Maybe Jones could as well, but we don’t know that yet.

    Don’t throw the baby out with the bathwater.

    Top notch!

    Further to this, when comparing him to bottom pairing Dmen on other teams, we’d best be holding them to the same standards. Before someone whips out Grezlyck’s crazy good numbers, control for his time on ice with maybe the best line in hockey. Same for Weber, Nemeth, Fedun, Bortuzzo, etc. While it’s important to see who can hold their own w/o McDavid, it’s not as though McDavid is a unique force of hyper-dominant GF results. There are plenty of duos, trios and even some single players that out-compete him for dominance in goal share metrics.

    If we’re gonna vet our own bottom pairing guys to such an extent, let’s hold the rest of the league’s worth of bottom pairing guys to the same standard and see where Benning ranks. I’d reckon he falls pretty high on that list.

  65. Munny says:

    ArmchairGM: Using McDavid as a proxy, GF – GA over the past 3 season at 5v5:

    Benning with: 63 – 43 (885:13)
    Benning w/o: 72 – 70 (2076:58)

    Sekera with: 41 – 28 (681:18)
    Sekera w/o: 33 – 51 (1469:55)

    Larsson with: 87 – 81 (1526:40)
    Larsson w/o: 77 – 99 (2613:57)

    Klefbom with: 78 – 70 (1339:13)
    Klefbom w/o: 61 – 90 (2323:12)

    Russell with: 69 – 51 (1240:37)
    Russell w/o: 68 – 89 (2533:10)

    QualComp means a LOT here, but Benning is the ONLY defender who keeps his head above water without McDavid. Maybe Jones could as well, but we don’t know that yet.

    Don’t throw the baby out with the bathwater.

    This is how you trip the light fandango. Thank you, sir.

  66. silasbengtsson says:

    Munny: Don’t believe I mentioned prospects anywhere in my post.Or Benning for that matter. My point is context.

    Apologies. My mind seems to have combined your post with another one.

  67. Munny says:

    silasbengtsson,

    *glovetap*

    No worries, bro, I thought that might be the case.

  68. theWaxCollector says:

    Munny:
    godot10,

    I think you do everything you can to trade Russell.And it shouldn’t be impossible.Plus the Oil are getting help from a weak UFA year on D.

    Should be able to divest the asset for a 2020 3rd.

    Completely agree. Staring at the roster, I’d pretty much trade Russell or Lucic for a bag of pucks and cap space any day. Holland could use the wiggle room

  69. Oilman99 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    “What will the Oilers depth chart, and the Condors depth chart, look like on defense opening night?”

    ———————-

    I think that Holland is generally OK with the defence and will focus on a top 6 forward (Nyquist level), a goalie.

    My depth chart below is predicated on a Russell disposition for cap space to feed the above acquisitions.There is a large hole at 2RD and I’m going to assume this does not get filled for the purpose of this exercise:

    Klefbom/Larsson
    Nurse/Benning
    Sekera/Jones

    Persson

    Lagesson/Bear
    Lowe/Bouchard
    Samorukov/Day

    Sekera and Benning could flip spots.

    Pegging Persson as the #7d-man is insane,the guy hasn’t played a game on the small ice,or in North America, there is going to be an adjustment period. Samorukov and or Bouchard have a better chance of being the guy to fill that spot, when you consider the trajectory Sammy has been on this season. If he dominates at the memorial cup this will be even a bigger sign he is ready.

  70. Oilman99 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: That’s fair.

    Especially if the plan is to have Sekera as 3LD and work Jones/Person in at 3RD and 7D.

    Pretty high expectations for Persson considering he has never played a game in North America against top caliber players. We don’t even know he he will cope with the pace of the NHL on the smaller ice with less time to react.

  71. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    who,

    – When Benning plays significant minutes on a 2nd pair with a D that is better than him and that 2nd pairing is slotted behind a healthy Klefbom-Larsson (or better) then I would agree

    – He hasn’t done very well when a bad team forces him to be on a 2nd pairing as a result of injuries.

    – All we know is that he isn’t ready now to be the one carrying a 2nd pairing. When his partner is Russell or Nurse I’m not sure why given his pedigree he should be held to a higher standard.

    – If his partner was Klefbom for 3 years or healthy Sek he’s be a lot better.

    – As it is he’s a bonafide way better than maracin Davidson etc RHD getting paid 1.9mm.

    – Put one of the kids in his role and you are going to have worse results IMO. Get better D and sure you can punt him.

  72. Oilman99 says:

    Bruce McCurdy: You & Silas beat me to it, but allow me to pile on:

    16/17 5v5 Goal Share (Goals!) EDM Dmen 500+ min
    PlayerGF%
    Andrej Sekera 57.5%
    Matthew Benning 56.8%
    Adam Larsson 56.4%
    Kris Russell 54.7%
    Oscar Klefbom 52.9%
    Darnell Nurse 50.0%
    Eric Gryba 43.6%

    Seems like Benning has been a Top 6 solution for 3 years.

    Considering cap hell, I cant believe anybody would be considering moving a value contract like Benning, makes no sense.

  73. Oilman99 says:

    Crazy Pedestrian:
    Has anyone else noticed the weird trend that has transpired in the Eastern conference playoffs this year?

    PIT swept by NYI, who was then swept by CAR, who was then swept by BOS.
    Is BOS destined to be swept by the eventual Western conference champs San Jose Sharks???
    (yes, I am cheering for the sharks. GO SHARKS!!)

    The Sharks shouldn’t even be in the playoffs,if the NHL had competent referees. Here’s hoping the Blues can put an end to this bizarre gifted run the Sharks are on.

  74. who says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    who,

    – When Benning plays significant minutes on a 2nd pair with a D that is better than him and that 2nd pairing is slotted behind a healthy Klefbom-Larsson (or better) then I would agree

    – He hasn’t done very well when a bad team forces him to be on a 2nd pairing as a result of injuries.

    – All we know is that he isn’t ready now to be the one carrying a 2nd pairing. When his partner is Russell or Nurse I’m not sure why given his pedigree he should be held to a higher standard.

    – If his partner was Klefbom for 3 years or healthy Sek he’s be a lot better.

    – As it is he’s a bonafide way better than maracin Davidson etc RHD getting paid 1.9mm.

    – Put one of the kids in his role and you are going to have worse results IMO. Get better D and sure you can punt him.

    I disagree. I think whichever kid wins the 6D job will be at least as good as, and probably an improvement over, Benning.
    If we can’t trade Sekera or Russell, without adding a sweetener or retaining salary, then Benning has to go.
    We need to make room for some of these kids. Unless you don’t think any of them are ready for the NHL.

  75. godot10 says:

    ArmchairGM: Using McDavid as a proxy, GF – GA over the past 3 season at 5v5:

    Benning with: 63 – 43 (885:13)
    Benning w/o: 72 – 70 (2076:58)

    Sekera with: 41 – 28 (681:18)
    Sekera w/o: 33 – 51 (1469:55)

    Larsson with: 87 – 81 (1526:40)
    Larsson w/o: 77 – 99 (2613:57)

    Klefbom with: 78 – 70 (1339:13)
    Klefbom w/o: 61 – 90 (2323:12)

    Russell with: 69 – 51 (1240:37)
    Russell w/o: 68 – 89 (2533:10)

    QualComp means a LOT here, but Benning is the ONLY defender who keeps his head above water without McDavid. Maybe Jones could as well, but we don’t know that yet.

    Don’t throw the baby out with the bathwater.

    When Benning is without McDavid, he is playing against the dregs of the other team (with the dregs of the OIlers)

    When the others are without McDavid, they are playing mediocre or the best players on the other team with the dregs of the Oilers.

    Benning is a legit third pairing D. But if the OIlers can’t get rid of Russell, they cannot afford him next season, and they have lots of options for the 3rd pairing slot.

    So cash him in to a team in cap hell needing to dump a legit similarly aged top nine forward with an extreme need for a cheap legit 3rd pairing D.

  76. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    who:
    We need to make room for some of these kids. Unless you don’t think any of them are ready for the NHL.

    – All I know is that it’s Oiler 101 to trade away bona-fide, or emerging players, just because there are some shiny players with promise and no track-record.

    – Benning doesnt have same ceiling as a Bouchard or Jones based on pedigree. But at 22 after college, he was certainly more ready than these guys are today for 3RHD IMO

    – Bouchard would be poor paired with anyone other than a solid stud, in a sheltered role in the NHL next fall IMO. Jones, he will be ok as he was this year when he was on a 3rd pairing.

    – The risk is an injured Sek (again), and you’ve traded away Russell.

    – If your opening roster has two guys who aren’t established NHL D in the top-6, you are not going to do well because we dont have a top-4 that is slotted properly to allow this

    – This is another year of non-playoffs for sure, if you trade Benning, and Sek is no good/injured:

    Klef-Larsson (with 25 games missed combined)
    Nurse – Russell
    Bouchard – Laggeson

    – So trade away your bona-fide D, have an injury, and that D is toast

    – Ideally Jones gets rep on a 3rd pairing with a healthy Sek (or something like that)

    – Should Holland and new Coach tell me this is plan, and we have growing pains, I’m all for this.

    – But getting rid of Benning and keeping Russell and hoping Sek doesn’t get injured, thinking your better for playoffs next year: your just pretending/hoping your D is good enough

    – The only transactions that make sense to me, is if net getting rid of all of Sek/Russell/Benning get a legit top-4 stud RHD (and no cap buy-out), then we live with bringing up the kids

    – Be like:
    Klef-Larsson
    Nurse-Stud
    Jones/Bouchard/Persson/Laggeson/Gravel for 11 minutes: sure

  77. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    godot10,

    – So your saying:

    Klef-Larsson
    Nurse-Russell
    Sek-Jones

    – Hoping that Sek is fine, and Jones >= Benning, and the $1MM savings from Benning goes toward a more expensive winger that will be better than Reider (last years most expensive FA signing)

    – Maybe? But not a lock, and injury to Sek away from disaster (again)

  78. Munny says:

    godot10: Benning is a legit third pairing D. But if the OIlers can’t get rid of Russell, they cannot afford him next season, and they have lots of options for the 3rd pairing slot.

    Then it makes more sense to do it next summer or at the deadline, after establishing a replacement.

    But I also don’t think trading Rusty will be as hard as you think it will be.

  79. silasbengtsson says:

    godot10: When Benning is without McDavid, he is playing against the dregs of the other team (with the dregs of the OIlers)

    When the others are without McDavid, they are playing mediocre or the best players on the other team with the dregs of the Oilers.

    I’ve always had an issue with this argument as this assumes we have control over matchups at all times. Sure, on home ice and on non-icings there’s likely an attempt to keep him away from the best, but this impact is stymied by the away games where opposing teams try to get their best out against bottom pairings and dregs as often as possible.

    Further, during time with McDavid on the ice against the opposing dregs, I doubt our 3rd pairing is the go-to pairing for exploiting those such matchups. I don’t have numbers to back my stance up here, admittedly. Do you?

  80. JimmyV1965 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – All I know is that it’s Oiler 101 to trade away bona-fide, or emerging players, just because there are some shiny players with promise and no track-record.

    – Benning doesnt have same ceiling as a Bouchard or Jones based on pedigree.But at 22 after college, he was certainly more ready than these guys are today for 3RHD IMO

    – Bouchard would be poor paired with anyone other than a solid stud, in a sheltered role in the NHL next fall IMO. Jones, he will be ok as he was this year when he was on a 3rd pairing.

    – The risk is an injured Sek (again), and you’ve traded away Russell.

    – If your opening roster has two guys who aren’t established NHL D in the top-6, you are not going to do well because we dont have a top-4 that is slotted properly to allow this

    – This is another year of non-playoffs for sure, if you trade Benning, and Sek is no good/injured:

    Klef-Larsson (with 25 games missed combined)
    Nurse – Russell
    Bouchard – Laggeson

    – So trade away your bona-fide D, have an injury, and that D is toast

    – Ideally Jones gets rep on a 3rd pairing with a healthy Sek (or something like that)

    – Should Holland and new Coach tell me this is plan, and we have growing pains, I’m all for this.

    – But getting rid of Benning and keeping Russell and hoping Sek doesn’t get injured, thinking your better for playoffs next year: your just pretending/hoping your D is good enough

    – The only transactions that make sense to me, is if net getting rid ofall of Sek/Russell/Benning get a legit top-4 stud RHD (and no cap buy-out), then we live with bringing up the kids

    I don’t think Sekera is any more at risk of getting injured than any other player on the team. He doesn’t have chronic health issues. Both injuries were freakish one-off type injuries. Klef might be more likely to get hurt because he’s had a couple shoulder related injuries I believe.

  81. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    JimmyV1965: I don’t think Sekera is any more at risk of getting injured than any other player on the team.

    – A healthy 72 game Sek will make the team look real smart

  82. Death By Misadventure says:

    jtblack: Here’s an idea for any NHL GM.If a player is over 50% GF. Keep him. If he is at or near 50% without the teams Top Player on the ice, Keep him.

    Edm has had exceptional top end talent since the 2010 draft.Since then the Top End has won the GF% share; only to have the bottom end give it All Back and more.

    Keep Good GFer’s

    Not sure if you’re serious as Bruce’s data point out, Klefbom and Larsson are the worst by this measures. Therefore trade them?

  83. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Oilman99: Pretty high expectations for Persson considering he has never played a game in North America against top caliber players. We don’t even know he he will cope with the pace of the NHL on the smaller ice with less time to react.

    He’s coming in on a one way contract so he’ll get every chance to stick with the big team

  84. Westchester Oil says:

    Looking at our depth chart, the Oilers are likely near the top of the league for #3-7 on RD and #3-5 for LD.. But no prizes for that and that doesn’t address our lack of a #2 RD, at least not yet.

  85. Death By Misadventure says:

    I don’t buy much into 1RD or 2RD or 1LD or 2LD. Correct me if I’m wrong but over the course of the year the “Top 4 D” will face very similar QoC.

    Having said that, if we are properly slotting our D as it presently stands, is Larsson not better suited to be 2RD?

    Considering his more one dimensiona, defense first skill set, shouldn’t the target be a 1RD ie: a more well rounded RHD?

    Sure one would think that trading Hall should have solved this problem, but it didn’t.

    Just one person’s opinion.

  86. godot10 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    godot10,

    – So your saying:

    Klef-Larsson
    Nurse-Russell
    Sek-Jones

    – Hoping that Sek is fine, and Jones >= Benning, and the $1MM savings from Benning goes toward a more expensive winger that will be better than Reider (last years most expensive FA signing)

    – Maybe?But not a lock, and injury to Sek away from disaster (again)

    Well, actually my plan is:

    1) Trade Benning for JT Miller modulo stuff (or similar type of deal).
    2) Sign Hainsey to play 2nd pairing RD with Nurse.
    3) Try to trade Russell, so I have the resources to sign Stralman.

    Klefbom Larsson
    Nurse Hainsey
    Sekera Persson
    Russell

  87. godot10 says:

    Munny: Then it makes more sense to do it next summer or at the deadline, after establishing a replacement.

    But I also don’t think trading Rusty will be as hard as you think it will be.

    Rusty wanted to play in Alberta. I doubt Calgary wants him. All he has to do is list 10 teams who can’t afford him or don’t need him and he gets to stay in Edmonton.

  88. Lowetide says:

    Westchester Oil:
    Looking at our depth chart, the Oilers are likely near the top of the league for #3-7 on RD and #3-5 for LD.. But no prizes for that and that doesn’t address our lack of a #2 RD, at least not yet.

    And Bouchard shouldn’t be far away.

  89. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    All,

    We’ve put FaceOffs/60 in puckiq data. (FO/60)

    The reason for his is that Dellow found that one way coaches shelter 3rd pair Dmen is to give them On The Fly (OTF) shifts vs the other teams best.

    This means they hit the ice vs the other team’s best while the puck is already moving towards the ozone.

    These shifts come with a built in advantage in terms of Goals, Shots, Corsi etc.

    We don’t have OTF at puckiq, but we will be adding it in the future, hopefully this summer. We can’t break out OTF shifts via the woodmoney tiers, but it will still be interesting info.

    In the meantime we have FO/60

    This will give you good information to infer a proportion of OTF shifts. If a player has significantly less FO/60 than another player, you can infer that player is getting more OFT shifts and therefore their results are “boosted” by the built in advantages.

    Here’s examples using EDM Dmen (minimum 250 5v5 minutes)

    Here are their FO/60 vs all WM tiers:

    Name FO/60
    Oscar Klefbom 61.8
    Adam Larsson 61.1
    Darnell Nurse 56.2
    Caleb Jones 55.6
    Matt Benning 54.9
    Kris Russell 54.7
    Andrej Sekera 52.9
    Kevin Gravel 48.9

    Pretty flat distribution with the better Dmen seeing a little bit more as they get “put out in specific situations” more than others. Sekera and Gravel being sheltered a bit.

    Jones played a lot of 1st pair with Larsson when he was here btw….

    Now here are the same Dmen with their FO/60 vs Elite forwards only:

    Name FO/60
    Oscar Klefbom 69.3
    Adam Larsson 68.0
    Darnell Nurse 60.5
    Kris Russell 59.1
    Caleb Jones 53.7
    Kevin Gravel 48.9
    Matt Benning 46.6
    Andrej Sekera 46.4

    Much steeper decline as you get to the 3rd pairing Dmen.

    This allows us to infer that a reasonable amount of players like Gravel, Benning and Sekera saw their TOI vs Elite Forwards with the very favourable OTF shift and that we should ding their results some.

    How much to ding is still up for debate, but ding we must.

  90. Ben says:

    JimmyV1965: I don’t think Sekera is any more at risk of getting injured than any other player on the team. He doesn’t have chronic health issues. Both injuries were freakish one-off type injuries. Klef might be more likely to get hurt because he’s had a couple shoulder related injuries I believe.

    Exactly. I’m more worried about Larsson’s back than Reggie’s legs.

  91. John Chambers says:

    Death By Misadventure: Not sure if you’re serious as Bruce’s data point out, Klefbom and Larsson are the worst by this measures. Therefore trade them?

    I had a similar thought. Klefbom appears to be the worst performer by this metric, and may also have the highest trade value given his tenure as a top-pair defender, and dreamy dreamy contract.

    But the Oilers were godawful with Klef out of the lineup last year.

    However if they had a healthy Sekera taking his reps, and a ready Caleb Jones …

  92. New Improved Darkness says:

    Back in the era of wooden sticks (old growth), the ethnic food scene in your average small town was one Chinese restaurant with an American chow mien, an American chop suey, and an almond gai ding (for the seriously adventuresome).

    Nevertheless, it’s legendary just how much of modern technology was conceived under the bottomless dribble of leaky teapot spouts.

    [*] 3000 years of deep cultural history, and they still can’t make a teapot spout that doesn’t dribble?—a likely story, surely this must all be orchestrated for mass cultural revenge.

    ———

    Rob Pike about Ken Thompson:

    What happened was this. We had used the original UTF from ISO 10646 to make Plan 9 support 16-bit characters, but we hated it.

    We were close to shipping the system when, late one afternoon, I received a call from some folks, I think at IBM, who were in an X/Open committee meeting. They wanted Ken and me to vet their FSS/UTF design. We understood why they were introducing a new design, and Ken and I suddenly realized there was an opportunity to use our experience to design a really good standard and get the X/Open guys to push it out. We suggested this and the deal was, if we could do it fast, OK.

    So we went to dinner, Ken figured out the bit-packing, and when we came back to the lab after dinner we called the X/Open guys and explained our scheme. We mailed them an outline of our spec, and they replied saying that it was better than theirs … and [it came back] how fast could we implement it?

    I think this was a Wednesday night and we promised a complete running system by Monday, which I think was when their big vote was.

    So that night Ken wrote packing and unpacking code and I started tearing into the C and graphics libraries. The next day all the code was done and we started converting the text files on the system itself.

    By Friday some time Plan 9 was running, and only running, what would be called UTF-8. We called X/Open and the rest, as they say, is slightly rewritten history. … I very clearly remember Ken writing [this all out] on the placemat and wished we had kept it!

    Well, after you invent Unix with a pickaxe and a paper teletype, you can do these things on this schedule.

    He doesn’t say specifically that this was a Chinese restaurant, but seriously, what are the odds? Besides, we already know why they didn’t keep the placemat—it was barely holding back a sodden tea puddle threatening to engulf the whole of the Siberian Traps.

    So that’s a minor story of Chinese–American technological fusion along the way.

    ———

    But then one day, there was the BIG ONE.

    A couple of hungry technologists—right on time, as it was 30 minutes since they polished off the last of the giant yet somehow not-as-capacious-as-it-first-looked chow mien platter— were belatedly cracking into their fortune cookies.

    And then—suddenly—inspiration struck.

    “You know,” says Jack, “these fortunes are crap, but it is kind of nice you can hold these fortunes in one hand.”

    “Yes, I like that, too,” said Evan.

    “Well, it’s nice, but it’s just a bit too crowded,” said Noah.

    “Don’t overdo it!” said Biz, who had the shortest name at the table. “Maybe three times as long, and you’d really have something.”

    “Four times!” said Jack.

    “Four times!” said Even.

    “Yes, four times!” said Noah.

    And the fours carried the day, three fors to one.

    “Shucks,” said Biz, “y’all overdid it, just as I feared.”

    “Well, what shall we call it?” asked Jack.

    “Call what?” said Noah.

    “Our ten billion dollar idea,” said Evan.

    “We’ll be lucky to make one billion,” says Biz, who still thinks they’ve ruined the format right off the placemat.

    “You know, Biz, if we make it four times as long as a fortune cookie, we can sign our inaugural woot! with ‘Jack’, ‘Even’, ‘Noah’ and ‘Biz’, cooed Noah soothingly, in menacing conciliation.

    “Yeah,” says Biz, who wonders for the first time if he hadn’t better rename himself Bz Stone, so as not to risk a fatal cut.

    “Woot toot!” says Jack.

    “Woot toot toot!” says Evan.

    “Twoot!” says Biz, who still thinks they’ve ruined the format right off the placemat, although he’s now reconciled himself to remain aboard, nevertheless.

    “Twee,” says the Chinese waiter, mostly to himself.

    “Why do they always end up at my table,” thinks the Chinese waiter with conspicuous postural relish.

    “Did he just mouth-breath ‘twee’?” thumbs Jack, barely under his shoulder.

    “Tweet!” says Evan, audaciously abridging the high “twee” with the low “twoot”.

    “Tweet!” agrees Noah.

    “They must be winding up, now,” concludes the Chinese waiter, whose expansive waiter’s notepad for the circular spread contains just the three Chinese characters (pronounced “laowai si”) and the “+” sign to record their entire Chinese dinner adventure: chow mien, chop suey, almond gai ding, and General Tsao, with extra white rice; laowai for “white cracker” (technically “old foreign”) and “si” for “four”—meaning the standard-edition white-cracker four-course meal.

    [*] Replace General Tsao with deep-fried Chinese chicken balls in a thick pineapple, cornstarch, and sugar sauce and he would have pencilled in “laowai si” using the ideograph for “si” meaning “death” instead—Chinese is a tonal language and that’s how it works.

    “Tweet!” says Jack.

    “Sweet!” says Biz, now fully aboard—although clearly still his own man—who still thinks they should have ordered deep-fried Chinese chicken balls slathered in a thick pineapple, cornstarch, and sugar sauce instead.

    ———

    “Chinese is such a funny language,” thinks Biz. “It’s so terse when they use it among themselves, but whenever I order the deep-fried Chinese chicken balls in a thick pineapple, cornstarch, and sugar sauce they don’t seem to have any short name at all.”

    “Maybe it should be four times as long as a fortune cookie,” rationalizes Biz, just as his post-prandial MSG buzz finally kicks in to high gear. “It’s easy enough to order the chow mien, chop suey, gai ding, and General Tsao with only two fortune cookies worth of missive prolixity, but if I wanted the deep-fried Chinese chicken balls in a thick pineapple, cornstarch, and sugar sauce instead, then I’d definitely appreciate some extra headroom.”

    ———

    “Always think ahead” is the motto of every good computer scientist, and always has been.

    ———

    Little does Biz realize that once upon a time, exactly the same discussion transpired over a nearly identical meal in a nearly identical Chinese food restaurant.

    In May 1961, an IBM engineer, Bob Bemer, sent a proposal to the American National Standards Institute (ANSI) to develop a single code for computer communication.

    ANSI created the X3.4 Committee, assembling most of the existing computer makers under the leadership of John Auwaerter of the Teletype Corporation to work on a solution. Over two years, the committee negotiated how the code would look and operate.

    Part of their difficulty was deciding which company’s proprietary characters would be included in the system. Bemer, now known as the “father of ASCII”, seemed to get most of his original wishes when the committee released its final design.

    But that wasn’t the placemat version that originally kicked this entire scheme off. The tea-sodden placemat conversion went like this:

    “Seven bits or eight bits?” asked Chin (short for Chin Patch).

    “Seven bits,” said Van Dyke.

    “Screw the French,” agreed Mutton Chops.

    “Screw the Germans,” agreed Manchu.

    “Screw the Anglo Saxons!” agreed Moustafa—always quick to get into the spirit of things—while displaying a surprising amount of knowledge about Æ, Ð, and Œ for a Sunni Persian (don’t ask).

    And thus it was settled, just like that.

    ———

    “You call this rice?” said Mustafa, mostly to himself, still truly incredulous over how Americans eat, even after all these years.

    “And to think I could have been at home eating my mother’s Persian jeweled rice. But on the flip side, I did manage to throw my oar in on wedging out half of Europe just to save one bit. Hmm. I wonder what kind of lard they use to make these chicken balls. Damn—are they ever good. Really, it’s the only thing on the menu that even holds a candle to my mom’s home cooking.”

    “Bon appétit,” says Mustafa—oozing with terminal sarcasm—while deftly forking the last giant wodge of sugary grease into his gaping pie hole, by means of traditional wooden sticks.

  93. OriginalPouzar says:

    bwar:
    So who are the casualties in Bakersfield?Logan Day, Jake Kulevich and Ryan Stanton.Kulevich probably won’t be missed.Stanton would have been a nice veteran presence to put beside Bouchard or Samorukov.Day is a loss, he had a great season but I imagine he will land on another farm team in the AHL, 34 points as a rookie defensemen and most points by a Condors defender someone will gladly take that from us for free.

    I would like to bring Stanton back as I think 2 veterans are needed in the AHL lineup (Lowe plus one other) but it is likely just too crowded. Does Ethan Bear at year 3 count as the veteran to help the rookies? I wouldn’t go that far.

    There is Brandon Manning………

    Logan Day may be re-signed by the org, to an actual NHL contract. He likely never gets a sniff of the NHL (away from the puck he still has miles and miles to go and that’s after progessing for miles) but he is a material player for the AHL.

  94. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Death By Misadventure,

    I don’t buy much into 1RD or 2RD or 1LD or 2LD. Correct me if I’m wrong but over the course of the year the “Top 4 D” will face very similar QoC.

    That really depends on the head coach.

    Some coaches hard match more than others.

    Chara still gets run very hard vs Elite forwards.

    Here’s BOS’ Dmen’s Time On Ice % vs Elite forwards from this season:

    Name CTOI%
    Zdeno Chara 47.6
    Charlie McAvoy 45.3
    Brandon Carlo 30.6
    Matt Grzelcyk 30.1
    Kevan Miller 27.5
    John Moore 24.4
    Torey Krug 22.3

    So when Chara was on the ice, 47.6 % of the time the other team has Elite forwards out. For Krug it was only 22.3%

    Compare that to EDM:
    Name CTOI%
    Adam Larsson 35.3
    Oscar Klefbom 35.1
    Darnell Nurse 33.8
    Caleb Jones 33.5
    Kris Russell 31.0
    Kevin Gravel 29.9
    Matt Benning 23.8
    Andrej Sekera 18.3

    For his entire time in EDM McLellan ran a “top 4” type Dcorps in terms of who saw the other team’s best.

    Teams like BOS SJS, and NJD (in previous seasons) ran their top pairs so often vs the other team’s best that the QoC of the rest of the Dcorps was more like 3rd pairing Dmen on other teams so its like they ran a 1st pair and two 3rd pairs.

    The year Burns won Norris Trophy (16/17) SJS’s QoC distribution looked like this:

    Name CTOI%
    Marc-Edouard Vlasic 50.1
    Justin Braun 47.6
    Brent Burns 25.1
    Paul Martin 24.8
    David Schlemko 19.4
    Brenden Dillon 18.2

    That’s essentially 3rd pairing QoC on many teams.

    That’s a strategy some coaches use to “put their players in position to succeed”. Burns has never been a great defender, but is exceptional offensively so why not bury Vlasic and Braun with the toughest minutes and free up Burns to do what he does best and not rely on him to defend against the best as much? Its a good strategy if you have the players to pull it off.

    All data from puckiq.com

  95. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    John Chambers: I had a similar thought. Klefbom appears to be the worst performer by this metric, and may also have the highest trade value given his tenure as a top-pair defender, and dreamy dreamy contract.

    But the Oilers were godawful with Klef out of the lineup last year.

    However if they had a healthy Sekera taking his reps, and a ready Caleb Jones …

    When using goal metrics its best to use multiple seasons. Players can have shitty years.

    Larsson had the worst season of his career after 3 of his best seasons.

    Back? Can it heal?

  96. OriginalPouzar says:

    silasbengtsson:
    russ99,

    If it was just Corsi, sure, but it’s not. He consistently wins goal share battle in a way not many bottom pairing guys do. I don’t think I recall him getting much of an offensive push, either.

    If we’re moving him, we have to hope his replacement shows the same ability to win the goal share battle or else we’ll be digging ourselves in a bigger hole.

    Benning also had a 50% goal share this past season without McDavid on the ice. The only regular that was better was Sekera. The question there is if Benning’s 50% goal share without McDavid is b/c of Sekera? I don’t know if I can filter further on NST to see Benning’s GS% without McDavid and Sekera vs. without McDavid but with Sekera.

    As an aside, Milan Lucic had a 50% goal share this past season without McDavid.

  97. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: The only thing that matters is this: what does Holland think?

    The only thing that matters with respect to almost everything being discussed is this:

    what does Holland think?

  98. Gerta Rauss says:

    New Improved Darkness,

    Great stuff DMW..err..NID

  99. Lowetide says:

    WG: Great info, thanks!

  100. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: He’s coming in on a one way contract so he’ll get every chance to stick with the big team

    Of course he’ll get every chance but I don’t think his one-way contract means management will keep him up if he’s not ready or there are better options. We are talking about Katz paying $1M for him to play in the minors – small potatoes from what Katz has paid the like of Fayne, Manning, Spooner, Souray, etc. to play in the minors.

    I think the one-way contract was to keep him in North America if he’s not on the Oilers (acknowledging that a 2-way contract could have guaranteed minimums, etc. that would keep his comp higher than the SEL – I think Keegan Lowe has something like this).

  101. OriginalPouzar says:

    Death By Misadventure:
    I don’t buy much into 1RD or 2RD or 1LD or 2LD. Correct me if I’m wrong but over the course of the year the “Top 4 D” will face very similar QoC.

    Having said that, if we are properly slotting our D as it presently stands, is Larsson not better suited to be 2RD?

    Considering his more one dimensiona, defense first skill set, shouldn’t the target be a 1RD ie: a more well rounded RHD?

    Sure one would think that trading Hall should have solved this problem, but it didn’t.

    Just one person’s opinion.

    I think its fairly clear that Larsson is more of a 2RD being forced to play 1RD due to lack of a true 1RD in the org.

    At the same time, acquiring a legit 1RD isn’t all that reasonable given, you know, they are the most coveted asset in the sport (for the most part).

  102. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ben: Exactly. I’m more worried about Larsson’s back than Reggie’s legs.

    Why?

    I read the odd post here and there about Larsson’s back and, I can’t think of any logical reason for it.

    He missed a few weeks with a bad back a two seasons ago – that is all that’s ever happened to his back. Oh ya, he left a training camp practice last camp with back tightness – that too.

    There is absolutely nothing to suggest that Larsson has any sort of chronic back issue.

  103. jtblack says:

    GREAT THREAD

    Holland thinks:

    He has some Good pieces
    He has some Good pieces coming

    He does NOT have 5+ years to righr the ship

    He is flush with NHL D MEN & NHL D prospects

    He has virtually no scoring beyond the Big 3 and nothing comig for sure.

    He has to Stabilize the Goalering (Quality Back up )

    Holland knows he doesnt need to Panic (AKA Pete).
    But he also knows he cant sit idle and hope this thing fixes itself.

    I expect at least 1 fairly big trade and / or substantial signing.

    IN KEN WE TRUST

  104. godot10 says:

    John Chambers: I had a similar thought. Klefbom appears to be the worst performer by this metric, and may also have the highest trade value given his tenure as a top-pair defender, and dreamy dreamy contract.

    But the Oilers were godawful with Klef out of the lineup last year.

    However if they had a healthy Sekera taking his reps, and a ready Caleb Jones …

    The last four years.

    2015-16 The Oilers seasons cratered for good when Klefbom got hurt (infection).
    2016-17 Klefbom…fully healthy season. The Oilers make the playoffs.
    2017-18 Klefbom….wonky shoulder all season. The Oilers are basically horrible
    2018-19. The Oilers season craters for good when Klefbom gets hurt (broken finger).

    Empirical evidence that the problem with the Oilers and the defense is NOT Oscar Klefbom…regardless of what the advanced stats may appear to say without digging in deeper.

  105. Pescador says:

    godot10: The last four years.

    2015-16The Oilers seasons cratered for good when Klefbom got hurt (infection).
    2016-17Klefbom…fully healthy season.The Oilers make the playoffs.
    2017-18Klefbom….wonky shoulder all season.The Oilers are basically horrible
    2018-19. The Oilers season craters for good when Klefbom gets hurt (broken finger).

    Empirical evidence that the problem with the Oilers and the defense is NOT Oscar Klefbom…regardless of what the advanced stats may appear to say without digging in deeper.

    Or Darnell Nurse for that matter

  106. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Why?

    I read the odd post here and there about Larsson’s back and, I can’t think of any logical reason for it.

    He missed a few weeks with a bad back a two seasons ago – that is all that’s ever happened to his back.Oh ya, he left a training camp practice last camp with back tightness – that too.

    There is absolutely nothing to suggest that Larsson has any sort of chronic back issue.

    He talks about his back getting tweaked a lot. Takes a lot of “maintenance days”

    He skates like his back is tweaked a lot.

    His fall off this year was so severe that usually you associate that with an inury.

  107. Pescador says:

    godot10: Rusty wanted to play in Alberta.I doubt Calgary wants him.All he has to do is list 10 teams who can’t afford him or don’t need him and he gets to stay in Edmonton.

    True but,
    If Ken Holland calls you & says “hey I like you but I don’t need you”
    I’m going to go ahead and say that he accepts a trade to a team that wants him.
    Provided that team is not Buffalo or Ottawa

  108. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    New Improved Darkness,

    Every small town in the Prairies has/had the “Western and Chinese Cuisine” restaurant.

    In the smallest towns it was also a store and/or gas station and/or hotel.

    Every time I’ve eaten in one its been the exact same food.

    I think they all buy their stuff in bulk from Wings, which mass produces food, mostly “Chinese style” food in Edmonton.

  109. Professor Q says:

    Man, I absolutely detest drivers.

    When it’s a green light, the walking signal is on, and pedestrians are walking across the crosswalk, WAIT YOUR TURN AND DO NOT BOX OUT THE PEDESTRIANS BY CREEPING UP TO A FOOT AWAY FROM THEM. Or even just normally driving through and hoping the Master of Time lets you just barely miss the pedestrian’s backside.

    And if you are a jerk and do it, don’t make it worse by making a scene in the car as if it’s the pedestrian’s fault that you were impatient, entitled, and don’t know the rules of the road. While the pedestrian is looking at you in disgust and shaking their head, while still walking, in order to make sure you don’t run them over; they’re allowed to at that point. We are people too, and have the right of way.

    Sorry for the rant, but it always bothers me and occurs much too frequently.

  110. John Chambers says:

    Klefbom is our #1 LHD. No doubt. You don’t trade your top defenseman and expect to get better.

    But in reality he’s more of a #3 playing in the #1 spot. There’s no shame in it. The numbers however speak for themselves.

    How far back are Nurse or Sekera? Two seasons ago Sek was our best defenseman, a little less talented but much more consistent than Klembom. Nurse is also a #3 – him and Klef a pretty close.

    So … a bunch of 3’s and 4’s playing in the 1 & 2 spot. Klefbom takes on the toughest role and his GF% stats illustrate that.

    All i’m saying here is that Klef isn’t head and shoulders ahead of (maybe) Sekera, or Nurse. He can be our top guy, and that’s pretty damn important, but I can understand why the Oilers would be looking to “trade-up” for a better all-around defenseman.

  111. Gerta Rauss says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Western and Chinese Cuisine” restaurant.

    There still is in Squamish…it said that on their sign out front until about 5 years ago. Someone must have pointed out to them how not politically correct it was, and they painted over the “western” part

    Same sign, they just painted over it

  112. pts2pndr says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – A healthy 72 game Sek will make the team look real smart

    And if he does an instant replay of the last two years stupid won’t even cover it. Two more years of a 5.5 cap hit that is unusable. Great risk for not a great reward. You have an older slower version of Sekera not the same player. Yes he looked good in third pairing protected role.

  113. OriginalPouzar says:

    Halifax plays their first M. Cup game in a few minutes if anyone is interested in seeing has Safin looks – not that he’s been a factor at all in the playoffs to this point.

  114. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    pts2pndr: And if he does an instant replay of the last two years stupid won’t even cover it. Two more years of a 5.5 cap hit that is unusable. Great risk for not a great reward. You have an older slower version of Sekera not the same player. Yes he looked good in third pairing protected role.

    – What becomes of Sek is a big thing next year for sure

    – chance of sek circa 2016 10%
    – chance of sek a decent top4 on off side 20%
    – chance of sek a decent top4 LHD 30%
    – chance of sek only slightly better than last year 30%
    – chance of sek getting injured again ?

    – you risk rate this and figure out what you get to buy him out or what you keep in a trade and make your educated best move. if holly gets it right he’s a champ if he gets it well we’ll the GM before was a bum.

  115. Pescador says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    New Improved Darkness,

    Every small town in the Prairies has/had the “Western and Chinese Cuisine” restaurant.

    In the smallest towns it was also a store and/or gas station and/or hotel.

    Every time I’ve eaten in one its been the exact same food.

    I think they all buy their stuff in bulk from Wings, which mass produces food, mostly “Chinese style” food in Edmonton.

    Mr Wing sounds like a smart business man.
    Where is this restaurant called Wings, and how does one obtain a reservation?

  116. Pescador says:

    Professor Q:
    Man, I absolutely detest drivers.

    When it’s a green light, the walking signal is on, and pedestrians are walking across the crosswalk, WAIT YOUR TURN AND DO NOT BOX OUT THE PEDESTRIANS BY CREEPING UP TO A FOOT AWAY FROM THEM. Or even just normally driving through and hoping the Master of Time lets you just barely miss the pedestrian’s backside.

    And if you are a jerk and do it, don’t make it worse by making a scene in the car as if it’s the pedestrian’s fault that you were impatient, entitled, and don’t know the rules of the road. While the pedestrian is looking at you in disgust and shaking their head, while still walking, in order to make sure you don’t run them over; they’re allowed to at that point. We are people too, and have the right of way.

    Sorry for the rant, but it always bothers me and occurs much too frequently.

    Have you ever thought about driving to your destination?
    JK! 😁

  117. Reja says:

    Oilman99: The Sharks shouldn’t even be in the playoffs,if the NHL had competent referees. Here’s hoping the Blues can put an end to this bizarre gifted run the Sharks are on.

    FK the sharks who the hell would cheer for them they been getting the home town reffing for years if there not winning a large fan base stops watching and going to the games. Don Cherry called the Carolina fans fair weather Sharks fans are the same.

  118. hunter1909 says:

    Reja: FK the sharks who the hell would cheer for them they been getting the home town reffing for years if there not winning a large fan base stops watching and going to the games.Don Cherry called the Carolina fans fair weather Sharks fans are the same.

    I’m not ashamed to state I’m currently on what’s euphemistically referred to as a “bender”, and I wholeheartedly agree with you in that the Sharks are a loser franchise and compared to St Louis I simply cannot come up with any kind of good words for those bearded buffoons.

    Who the fuck wouldn’t love another Boston St Louis final? If it happens, I’ll be cheering madly for the Blues. This is despite the fact I have extremely strong ties to Beantown. Ties that bind, lol.

  119. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr: And if he does an instant replay of the last two years stupid won’t even cover it. Two more years of a 5.5 cap hit that is unusable. Great risk for not a great reward. You have an older slower version of Sekera not the same player. Yes he looked good in third pairing protected role.

    There isn’t any real risk of this, well, any more than any other 32 year old playing in the NHL, of which there are many and many making more than his $5.5M. The injury and recovery with his knee does not lead to an increased risk of re-injury. The injury and recovery to his achillies does not come with an increased risk of re-injury.

    This is not a player with a concussion history or a shoulder injury where there are materially increased risk of re-injury.

    The reward is a legit top 4 d-man and a potential lower end top pairing d-man of which he has been through much of his career.

  120. who says:

    OriginalPouzar: Benning also had a 50% goal share this past season without McDavid on the ice.The only regular that was better was Sekera. The question there is if Benning’s 50% goal share without McDavid is b/c of Sekera?I don’t know if I can filter further on NST to see Benning’s GS% without McDavid and Sekera vs. without McDavid but with Sekera.

    As an aside, Milan Lucic had a 50% goal share this past season without McDavid.

    Which is exactly why I put little faith in goal share stats. Are we going to argue now that Lucic is a good player because he is 50% without McDavid?
    I hate to say it but “WATCH THE GAMES”.
    If people can’t tell that Lucic is bad, and that Benning is replaceable, without checking a spreadsheet, I really wonder why they watch.

  121. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Munny: Personally. I prefer the raw data in these analyses over percentages, and would also prefer that TOI be included side-by.

    Percentages can easily be calculated in one’s head and raw data with TOI also gives us an idea of rates.Not to mention, for all Oiler GF numbers we really should be including the TWM* numbers.

    TWM – Time With McDavid.

    I’ll try to remember that the next time I am painstakingly transcribing lists of numbers on my iPad. Probably be smarter of me just to include a link to you can look at whatever column you like. 😉 (And yes, I agree with your preferences.)

    EDIT: Imsee ArmchairGM had the same idea with the link, thanks for that.

  122. Oil2Oilers says:

    A stat missing from the Benning debate above is the with/without Sekera with two good legs. I recall Reg was able to zoom an unconcussed Benning to great night’s.

  123. Oil2Oilers says:

    Arthur Kaliyev, LT has been a believer for a long while. From my review of current draft predictions there is a chance he falls to late in the first round. If he does the Oilers should bundle mid round picks to move up and get him. Under Holland there is a chance the Oilers would not screw up his development.

  124. hunter1909 says:

    2-0 Blues, thank fuck.

  125. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Congrats to Bruce for being recognized by The Weather Network for some excellent photography of this week’s spring Auroras. If I was in twitter I’d follow but alas I am not.

    https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/news/article/surprise-solar-storm-sparks-auroras-could-continue-through-the-week

  126. Lowetide says:

    Congrats, Bruce!

  127. Lowetide says:

    Sharks spend entire meals in the St. Louis zone. Blues are going to have to find a workaround.

  128. Bruce McCurdy says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Congrats to Bruce for being recognized by The Weather Network for some excellent photography of this week’s spring Auroras. If I was in twitter I’d follow but alas I am not.

    https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/news/article/surprise-solar-storm-sparks-auroras-could-continue-through-the-week

    Sweet, I had no idea. Thanks for the heads up.

  129. GMB3 says:

    russ99:
    Benning’s situation reminds me of Cam Barker.

    He’s still young enough, has a reasonable cap hit and has some potential, so let’s move him for a good asset while he has a high value.

    Moving one of our top D prospects and keeping Benning because of RH Corsi would be a bad move. What non-CF% factor makes anyone believe he’ll be a solution in the top 6?

    Every other metric???

  130. GMB3 says:

    Glovjuice: Lana Del Ray is one talented, gorgeous babe.You dudes are on fire. Oh, in Jasper for the May long having a Raised by Wolves IPA for breakfast. Athabaska falls next.

    I was also at the falls today. What a place

  131. GMB3 says:

    russ99:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    The numbers look so good when it comes to scoring, so you’ll overlook the other end of the ice.

    Where’s Ricki when I need him, lol.

    Russ I feel like you’re the only person on this blog who doesn’t understand how percentages look. Lordy.

    Gf% isn’t rocket science. I’m dumb and I understand it. Score more goals than the other team scores. Gets ya 2 points.

  132. Ben says:

    Suuuuper curious to see what Karlsson’s next deal looks like. Just hasn’t been himself for a couple of years, still obviously suffering from crotch problems. Could see a 1x$7M there, and really having trouble figuring out how TB does it, so maybe back with SJ.

  133. OriginalPouzar says:

    He’s a shadow of his former self but there is no way he is going to sign for $7M or for one year – I don’t see either of those happening.

  134. flyfish1168 says:

    John Chambers:
    Klefbom is our #1 LHD. No doubt. You don’t trade your top defenseman and expect to get better.

    But in reality he’s more of a #3 playing in the #1 spot. There’s no shame in it. The numbers however speak for themselves.

    How far back are Nurse or Sekera? Two seasons ago Sek was our best defenseman, a little less talented but much more consistent than Klembom. Nurse is also a #3 – him and Klef a pretty close.

    So … a bunch of 3’s and 4’s playing in the 1 & 2 spot. Klefbom takes on the toughest role and his GF% stats illustrate that.

    All i’m saying here is that Klef isn’t head and shoulders ahead of (maybe) Sekera, or Nurse. He can be our top guy, and that’s pretty damn important, but I can understand why the Oilers would be looking to “trade-up” for a better all-around defenseman.

    Hard to argue with the Bruins results so far. They don’t truly have a #1. Doing it by good goaltending and team effort

  135. Reja says:

    hunter1909:
    2-0 Blues, thank fuck.

    The blues fan base probably does deserve at least one cup after having some pretty good teams fizzle out in previous years

  136. Reja says:

    hunter1909: I’m not ashamed to state I’m currently on what’s euphemistically referred to as a “bender”, and I wholeheartedly agree with you in that the Sharks are a loser franchise and compared to St Louis I simply cannot come up with any kind of good words for those bearded buffoons.

    Who the fuck wouldn’t love another Boston St Louis final? If it happens, I’ll be cheering madly for the Blues. This is despite the fact I have extremely strong ties to Beantown. Ties that bind, lol.

    Ditto I don’t get the WWE bash brothers beard thing either FK the Sharks unless of course it’s against that regular season power house Flamers team.

  137. Professor Q says:

    Lowetide:
    Sharks spend entire meals in the St. Louis zone. Blues are going to have to find a workaround.

    Too many dish passes?

  138. pts2pndr says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – What becomes of Sek is a big thing next year for sure

    – chance of sek circa 2016 10%
    – chance of sek a decent top4on off side 20%
    – chance of sek a decent top4 LHD 30%
    – chance of sek only slightly better than last year 30%
    – chance of sek getting injured again ?

    – you risk rate this and figure out what you get to buy him out or what you keep in a trade and make your educated best move. if holly gets it right he’s a champ if he gets it well we’ll the GM before was a bum.

    Valid point.

  139. OriginalPouzar says:

    Yes, Guelph and Samorukov in action at 1:30 this afternoon. What better to do on a cold and rainy weekend day?

  140. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Yes, Guelph and Samorukov in action at 1:30 this afternoon. What better to do on a cold and rainy weekend day?

    If Samorukov is that special late fluke pick that happens to one club every draft but not to us since the eighties what the heck do the Oiler do with him. From what I remember teams wanted him in a trade last year thank goodness Pete didn’t trade him when he started making questionable moves Manning Kosh etc.

  141. Nit64 says:

    Reja: what the heck do the Oiler do with him.

    Get good players. Keep good players

  142. Reja says:

    Nit64: Get good players. Keep good players

    I hear you but there’s not enough seats at the grownup table. It’s going to be a interesting year watching what Holland does with his prospect riches on D. Who does he trade everyone of our D is potentially on the block. Myself I’m hoping it’s Russell which will probably not happen I see Benning gone can’t see a Sekera buy-out maybe Holland can weave his magic and get a haul for Nurse or kelfbom

  143. Andy Dufresne says:

    Ice Sage: I love vacations where I get a fat tug…
    There are many shoes yet to drop this summer, gonna be fun!

    Why wait for vacations…..you should treat yourself to a fat tug everyday!

  144. Andy Dufresne says:

    Munny:
    If anyone starts telling you +/- is an important stat for individual players, tell them to look up Noah Dobson’s stats for this season.Textbook example:

    -30 in 28 games with Acadie.
    +40 in 28 games with Rouyn.

    Same player. Same year. Same # of games. Different team.

    Man that guy turned a corner, lol.

    +1000

  145. Andy Dufresne says:

    jtblack: No. Because BOS is the best team remaining.And was the #2 seed overall coming into the Playoffs.

    After Round 2, they had the best odds to win the Cup.

    Anything can happen, but doubt they are swept

    Ah….Tampa Bay Lightenting.

  146. Andy Dufresne says:

    silasbengtsson: Top notch!

    Further to this, when comparing him to bottom pairing Dmen on other teams, we’d best be holding them to the same standards. Before someone whips out Grezlyck’s crazy good numbers, control for his time on ice with maybe the best line in hockey. Same for Weber, Nemeth, Fedun, Bortuzzo, etc. While it’s important to see who can hold their own w/o McDavid, it’s not as though McDavid is a unique force of hyper-dominant GF results. There are plenty of duos, trios and even some single players that out-compete him for dominance in goal share metrics.

    If we’re gonna vet our own bottom pairing guys to such an extent, let’s hold the rest of the league’s worth of bottom pairing guys to the same standard and see where Benning ranks. I’d reckon he falls pretty high on that list.

    +1000

    Even Jesus wasnt well thought of in his own hometown.

  147. Andy Dufresne says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Do goals grab your nipples and twist them like corsi does?

    Ooooooooh…….A hockey domanatrix…….carries a stick instead of a whip…..blows a whistle…….delivers punishing hits…….puts you in the penalty box when you’ve been a bad boy. (my safe word is Goal Share)

  148. Andy Dufresne says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Awesome posts today! Thank You.

    Great debate on Benning by everyone involved. Thank You All!

  149. J-Bo says:

    Ok. This is totally off topic, but is anyone else sick of talk about how free agents etc… will take a discount due to tax breaks in Florida? This is an obvious issue in a salary cap league. The NHL needs to do something to level the playing field. Tampa shouldn’t consistently garner advantage in this way.

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