Fans who follow the draft pay attention to boxcars, the latest updates on prospects, scouting reports and organizational verbal in the hours after the draft. You read some promising words and suddenly there’s hope. Alas, each season the player puts up similar numbers in the same league and after a time, a new bunch comes along. Then one day you find out your NHL team didn’t sign your hope before the deadline. And for a few days you might think “dammit, now anyone can get him” which is kind of funny and sad at the same time.
What do great prospects do? They progress quickly. I know it’s obvious but sometimes we (I) overlook that simple fact on the way to fooling ourselves into thinking Anton Lander will play 10 years in the NHL as No. 3 center.
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The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group. INSANE OFFER IS HERE!
- New Lowetide: How much can Connor Brown help the Oilers?
- New Lowetide: Dmitri Samorukov is off to the Memorial Cup and is the Oilers’ fastest rising prospect
- New Jonathan Willis: Craig MacTavish leaves the Oilers, signalling the first major front office change under Ken Holland
- Lowetide: What kind of coach should Ken Holland hire for the Oilers?
- Jonathan Willis: Every Oilers AHL prospect, rated by how close they are to the NHL
- Jonathan Willis: A resurgent Andrej Sekera gives the Oilers much-needed defensive options
- Lowetide: Is Joe Gambardella destined to become the Oilers’ next Fernando Pisani?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Protector, supporter, confidant: Connor McDavid’s mom, Kelly, is his off-ice rock through good times and bad
- Lowetide: An offseason plan for Ken Holland to remodel the Oilers roster.
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland steadfast that buck stops with him as new Oilers GM.
- Lowetide: How will Ken Holland proceed in Year 1 as Oilers general manager?
- Jonathan Willis: What does the arrival of Ken Holland mean for the Oilers coaching search?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Prioritizing the roster issues that await Ken Holland in Edmonton.
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s procurement list for his rumored move to Edmonton will include front-office personnel
- Jonathan Willis: A Milan Lucic trade is at the top of the to-do list for the Oilers’ next GM.
AHL PROGRESS
I wanted to talk about Anton Lander and why AHL players are a different breed. Do you remember the “Farm Workers” post I do every year? Among the endless comments I make is one that says “if you haven’t established yourself as a prospect by age 22 you’re in trouble” and that applies to many players on this list— but not to Lander. He was bona fide at 22 and still missed the cut.
Lander was brought along strangely, kept in the NHL as a penalty killer at 20, and effectively derailed as a prospect. By 22, he was posting strong AHL numbers but couldn’t get back to the NHL. Now, the Oilers handled him badly, but he also had legit issues as a player (speed). When you see his points-per-game at 22 in the AHL, the assumption should be NHL ready, but he played for an addled team and his speed was an issue.
Could he have played in the NHL for a more organized team? I think so, but his skills and production weren’t overwhelming. So, the Oilers went with other options (Eric Belanger, Will Acton, Boyd Gordon) and Lander hammered AHL pitching.
The same kind of fate befell Anton Slepyshev, who earned a recall in his second AHL season but couldn’t establish himself as an NHL winger (it would have a major impact on the organization combined with Jesse Puljujarvi’s struggles).
So, you may ask, if Lander and Slepyshev were over 1.00 points-per-game in the AHL at 22, how on earth did Jujhar Khaira and Tyler Pitlick emerge from the minors as NHL players? Well, I will tell you that neither man is “established” and that’s an important point. Lander played 215 NHL games, Pitlick has played in 185 and Khaira 154. If “established” is three or more full seasons, that’s about 250 NHL games. In real terms, Pitlick and Khaira haven’t yet passed Lander. We’ll see.
MIKE WALTON
In the old timey Farm Workers, I wrote “For Rob Schremp fans, there is exactly one pure offensive player who made it: Mike Walton.” The longer a skill player (Rob Schremp) spends in the AHL, the less likely he’s going to be an NHL top 6F of note. The first-round picks go up in mere seconds, meaning they get earlier and more chances than lower picks. It’s always been this way. Mike Walton was disliked by his coach, Punch Imlach, for reasons. He won a Stanley with my Bruins, so he’s alright for me. Imlach kept Walton in the minors for 2.5 seasons, where he flattened all comers.
BEWARE THE JOB DESCRIPTION
There’s an ongoing conversation in the comments section about players like Kailer Yamamoto, Tyler Benson and Cooper Marody. The idea goes “these players need to stay in the minors for another year, gain strength, dominate, then come to the NHL.” There’s a lot of good thinking there, but allow me to add some nuance.
First, let’s be clear about specific players and the jobs they are applying for at this time. Kailer Yamamoto is either a skill RW in the NHL or he’s going to play his career in the AHL or Europe. He’s not going to apply for a checking job. He isn’t in the AHL to learn how to lean on people and wear them down. He’s there to dominate offensively. He didn’t get it done in year one, and part of that is a wrist injury. He needs a big season.
Tyler Benson and Cooper Marody delivered strong offensive seasons, and are now “in the window” for NHL jobs. Benson (imo) could apply for a checking job if he washes out as an offensive option, not certain about Marody (his pucks skills are fabulous). Both men will go as far as their foot speed allows.
The jump up from the AHL to the NHL is a big one, that’s why I hold a lot of value in the “cup of coffee” method, give a young player a taste of the NHL, and then send them back down with obvious things to work on, so they’re prepared for full time NHL duty.
Here’s the tally for this year:
Caleb Jones 17 games, Gambardella 15 games, Yamamoto 17 games, Bouchard 7 games, Marody 6 games and Patrick Russell 6 games.
Last year Bear got 18 games and Keegan Lowe 2 games
I’d hold back Bouchard for obvious reasons, and Yamamoto due to his injury.
The rest are your pool of players who can make the NHL jump early-to-mid next season.
Benson lost a lot of development time due to injury, and hasn’t made his NHL debut yet. As good as his AHL numbers are, another 25-30 AHL games wouldn’t hurt
Yes, Safin is signed to his 3 year ELC.
Currie and Arcobello both started in the ECHL and made their way up the AHL and then the NHL (for at least a stint). They aren’t quite the same as Safin though as they weren’t considered real NHL prospects when they were in the ECHL but kind of came out of nowhere. Safin was (is) considered a real prospect and he would be in the ECHL with the hope/expectation of working his way to the AHL quickly.
They qualified Slepy last off-season so still retain his RFA rights. Of course, Slepy himself would need to agree to come back by signing a contract and would likely only do so if he got a one-way deal to assure himself the compensation – one-way vs. two-way means nothing to anyone except the player and Katz.
Brandon Pirri is a no-brainer sign on the cheap for the Oilers (assuming he is wililng to sign here). I’d actually like to obtain his rights prior to free agency when the Oilers acquire Cody Eakin. Pirri has good scoring rates, his metrics are solid and his relative metrics are positive. He would be a no risk cheap bet that could very well be a solid value contract. It could not work out at all but, given the cost, no risk.
OriginalPouzar,
He could stay, and Edmonton could sweet talk Halifax into keeping him, but I guess they’re in no obligation. Being, they could trade him to another team, or one of their other import draftees comes over, or they trade for another overager.
I don’t think it’s the end of the world that he stays in the Q, though. Halifax might want him to because he didn’t play all of last year, and if others stay they might want another run for the Q Championship and Memorial Cup.
If he’s forced out to the ECHL (has he signed, yet?), then that wouldn’t necessarily be bad either. It would just suck as he never really gelled with Halifax in time. Aside from the current AHL and ECHL goalies, have we ever had anyone with hopeful NHL potential start in the ECHL and move up the ranks?
You could look at Sleppy, but he just turned 25 and had an awfully mediocre KHL season (less than 0.5 PPG). I don’t think he’s an answer.
It’s pretty bad, but it seems most reasonable.
IMO he’d need to have built on his almost PPG 17-18 to expect a smooth transition to the AHL. Instead he had a serious injury and regressed badly in the games he did play.
Hopefully he can get back on track, but I’m not sure how you start him anywhere other than the ECHL based on his on ice performance this season.
The last I heard of Slepyshev he was still on the oilers negotiation list and playing in the K.
With the lack of cheap RW UFA’s why not bring him back for a look.
Also sign Brandon Pirri. I said it so now it will never happen.
That’s a ban!
New for The Athletic: Ken Holland’s Oilers could go the high octane procurement route but will need a driver
https://theathletic.com/984564/2019/05/20/ken-hollands-oilers-could-go-the-high-octane-procurement-route-but-will-need-a-driver/
My guess was that he shit talked Marc Pouliot.
As awesome as Samorukov looks, Safin looks equally as poor.
Hardly played and I only noticed him twice, both negative plays, falling over trying to get the puck out in the first and on a shift getting caved in the 2nd.
I really hope its a function of essentially not playing all year.
Do we think the Oilers will send him back to the Q for an over-age season? Does Halifax have a say in that, in particular given he’s an import?
Maybe he’s bound for the ECHL to start next season? Is that a horrid thing?
I think its fine to give in to the hype around Samorukov – he is spiking and showing that he has a full tool box and all the skills to become a true #1D.
At the same time, I think we all do acknowledge, at least most of us, that he is far from a sure thing to become that D-man, in fact, its not likely that he does reach that ultimate potential and, in fact, its not even a sure thing that he becomes an every day NHL player – there is a huge gap between the CHL and NHL and there are countless examples of players that excel in junior that simply never make it.
Of course, most of us can’t remember a prospect in the organization that has this range of skills and has his arrows pointing directly up – there is reason for excitement while also acknowledging there are “miles to go”.
Isn’t the answer simple – because they have other skills that make them effective at the highest level?
Dave Andreychuk was a poor skater. Luc Robitaille was a poor skater. Larry Murphy was a poor skater.
Excellent post
Madness… Mantha is a RW… we already have McDavid’s RW (Drai). If we trade RNH for Mantha, then Draisatl has to anchor the second line (which he hasn’t done yet for a significant number of games really well), and Mantha becomes our defacto #1 RH… he hasn’t cracked 50 points in a season (not like RNH… Mantha REALLY hasn’t cracked 50 points yet).
Keep RNH
JimmyV1965,
Wings fans seem to think mantha is a God. Worh RNH plus 8 overall like do all other teams think Oilers prospects/players = shit
What do you guys think about the above trade rumour?
https://detroitsportsnation.com/rumor-red-wings-steve-yzerman-oilers-ken-holland-may-working-huge-trade/ddrysdale/general/05/19/2019/204965/
While I can’t claim knowledge of this on a personal level, I believe your analogy describes the gist of it perfectly. Highest regards.
Too many links. It’s up now.
Good points.
Nurse has always run around, in junior his physical dominance allowed it.
Given the team he’s on and typical partner maybe he’s actually doing better than it looks.
I think if he had a Sekera ‘type’ he’d be looking better. Stability and someone that can actually pass. I think it’s a pretty easy forecheck when you know the options – Nurse skates it out, or it’s Russell off the glass. Poor forward support in the back 40. Terrible team structure many games. You can key on that.
However at this point he is what he is, which isn’t Pronger. You still don’t move quality before quality gets pushed off our out. If winning matters.
lol. +1
Not to be argumentative. But Nurse is playing at the highest league and Samorukov is in juniors. Let us wait till he gets into the NHL and then see if his hockey IQ can translate into the best league in the world. He may be our new shiny toy but let’s not overhype the poor kid
Right.
I’d say given the average size per position changes slowly, most players that stick are close to NHL average.
In any sport there is an optimal body type per role. It’s not a rule, but an effect of the demands on the athlete.
Outliers can excel, but they remain outliers.
I ask my kids sometimes, would a player in top tier Euro soccer be there if he couldn’t run well?
No.
Why are there hockey players in the NHL that are weak skaters?
No answer, because it makes no sense. When you can’t obstruct at least.
At this point? Yamo’s edge work is a foot massage to Gaudreau’s tounge in the holiest of holies.
Scungilli Slushy,
When loosely comparing Samorukov and Nurse, I get the feeling that they are very similar. One area which is markedly different is that Nurse’s hockey IQ does not seem to be as high as that of Samorukov.
Many of Nurses playing errors are mental rather than physical. He puts himself out of position on many plays and, offensively, he does not seem to have natural talent. He has the physical tools to get into good offensive areas but lacks the skills/IQ necessary to finish. He seems to be forever firing a shot from the blue line when no Oiler is in front of or anywhere near the net. The result being an easy save for the opposing goalie and a loss of possession by the Oilers.
Watching Samorukov, he is still very young and inconsistent but we repeatedly see flashes of something special. He seems to be able to walk the line effectively and get shots through traffic to the net. He also seems to have pretty decent defensive anticipation.
Will be very interested to see how Samorukov develops over the next 2 years. Hope runs eternal.
I didn’t put them in order of importance. I would agree with your priority list with the exception being I would have desire first. The reason size is important is that it opens up playing on other than a scoring line while experience is gained. Once the player is established as an NHL player the importance of size is negligible. It would be interesting to know the percentage of drafted players average size or above vs below average size that make the NHL.
Gaudreau edge work is superior at this point. This gives him a huge advantage
yes, Darnell was. Remember how good he was in the last game for team Canada. He won gold with Canada at the 2015 World Junior Ice Hockey Championship and was named one of Canada’s top three players, as well as the player of the match for the gold medal game against Russia.
Let us not give him the Schultz treatment. He brings a lot of good and will only get better. It foolish to even think of trading him after bringing him along this far. Unless we get 3 very good assets I am not interested in trading him.
– I don’t think I’m the only one who noticed what you did there. This blog is awesome
I agree except I would list the traits skating, IQ, desire, talent, size.
The Oilers have in the past missed big time on one aspect and gone for size or what they perceived as talent. Also ignoring being zoomed and drive.
Samu is an excellent example of a well drafted player. He was inconsistent, a teenager, but had everything else.
It’s always a crap shoot, but he put it together and now is a potential top 4 x 5 tool guy.
Lowetide,
What lands a comment in moderation?
I thought Nurse had more chaos good and bad in his game overall.
This is exactly where drafting went wrong. They tried to draft role players, I think confusing memories of the great teams with what actually happened.
Being a good guy and willing to die on the ice for the team still isn’t enough, if the hockey part at an NHL level isn’t there.
Trying to draft what’s basically free every summer, or extreme outliers like Lucic, or hopefully not a fail in the St Louis / Gaudreau sweepstakes, shows a profound misunderstanding of the game.
We know this of course, I think Holland does. I hope. Kretzky has been hella better. So far.
Skating really is the boogeyman around these parts. I’ve heard just about every Oiler not named McDavid or Hall have their skating criticized at some point. It seems like if a player is not defined by their blazing speed they are slow.
As for Yamamoto specifically, unless his skating regressed from draft day his skating is not an issue:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nhl/2017/06/23/nhl-draft-2017-first-round-picks-scouting-reports/424648001/
“A real speedster”, “excellent acceleration with a quick first step” – Kyle Woodlief
https://lastwordonhockey.com/2017/04/22/kailer-yamamoto-scouting-report-2017-nhl-draft-23/
“tremendous skater. His top end speed is excellent”, “great acceleration and a really quick first step”
https://www.habseyesontheprize.com/nhl-entry-draft-picks-2017/2017/5/30/15708714/2017-nhl-draft-prospect-profile-kailer-yamamoto-scouting-report-highlight-video-rankings
“speedy”, “great overall quickness”, “uses his speed”
http://www.mynhldraft.com/2017/NHL-Draft-Profiles/Kailer-Yamamoto
“fantastic speed”, “very good skater, can accelerate fast and shows great quickness in his steps”
https://flamesnation.ca/2017/06/12/nhl-draft-scout-series-whl-and-cale-makar/
“high end skating ability”
As much as Pete’s reign ended terribly we sure have some nice assets probably the best since Siam was a country.
I doubt he’d actually say that Holland’s hire was a factor (or that he was essentially pushed out):
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Craig MacTavish on if Holland’s appointment affected his decision to move to the KHL: ‘Not really. I was looking for a change. Doing something different. And I missed coaching’. BTW Michel Therrien had an offer from Lokomotiv, but signed as an assistant with the #Flyers #Oilers
Nurse was bigger band faster and just outright dominant in his last year of Jr. His abilities meant he could get away with going walkabout, Samorukov is much more responsible. He seemed to play the last man back role today and was great at it. The “Wall” commentary from the broadcast was apt.
My goodness, I don’t even think I’m exaggerating when I say that Samorukov must have played 16-17 minutes in the third period.
The stat line shows the single assist and -2 but he was fantastic in this game. He didn’t create too much offensively but my goodness was he phenomenal defensively – he is so good on the boards in the defensive zone, aggressive and consistently comes out with the puck.
What a performance to my eye.
“why didn’t Pete…” could easily be the name of a book with many volumes following it.
There is alot of the “good Darnell Nurse” in Samorukov’s game – an effortless skater that can log big minutes and get up and down the ice so fast and with ease.
I know the famous series with Eerie but was Nurse ever this good defensively in his last year of junior?
Has Samorukov left the ice in the third?
Damn, I miss five minutes and Sammy with a PP assist on a goal by Durzi – he’s on absolute fire!
So far tonight I have seen Samorukov;
Be hairy arsed in the Rickibox
Brave in puck retrieval in the corner
Use good stick and angles against odd man rushes
Make smart headman passes and smart plays versus dump ins
Skate up the ice like Nurse
Make open big open ice hits
Damn near kill a player with his slap shot
On a range of one to Craig McTavish seeing Kelfbom for the first time I am a little l a little past full MacT
On the other hand, Safin looks awful out there – horrible in his own zone on that last shift.
Don’t forget about Bouchardov and McCloudevsky. It says we are probably drafting the Russian kid at #8.
That was a sensational shorthanded goal by Lavoie. I always have a bit of trepidation re: forwards from the Q but, through 4.5 periods, he’s just as dominant against the other leagues.
I wonder where he’ll end up getting taken?
All those years of hoping Teubert Chorney Musil etc would pan out and now we have a whole fruit tree. Holland has to be smiling from Edmonton to Medicine Hat.
I try and take in a Mooseheads game whenever I visit Halifax, made easier with my family’s season tickets. I have gotten to see some wonderful NHL prospects and good hockey in a lively building. But nothing like today Wow. It reminds me of the Hitchcock era Blazers making Kamloops the most exciting place to see a hockey game.
Yeah, I will say it again. Yamo is nowhere near a fast enough (separation speed – which Gaudreau has a ton of) to cover the 22 overall bet for a VERY VERY small player.