The USHL, Sweden and the 2019 draft

Caleb Jones was chosen in the deep 2015 draft. ISS described him as a “composed two-way defenseman who brings mobility and crisp, efficient puck movement. I didn’t list him, not even on the USHL secondary list. Scouts did a helluva job with Caleb Jones.

Sweden gave us Oscar Klefbom in 2011, and tried to give us Erik Gustafsson one year later. William Lagesson looks like he’s a player, but Edmonton hasn’t shopped Sweden since 2016. Will that change?

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group. INSANE OFFER IS HERE!

  • New Lowetide: Dave Tippett’s roster deployment in Arizona and what it might mean for the Oilers
  • Jonathan Willis: Why Ken Holland’s worst years in Detroit tell us the most about how he’ll fare in Edmonton
  • Jonathan Willis: Three offseason scenarios and how each one would affect the Oilers salary cap
  • Lowetide: Examining the Oilers’ goaltending options in free agency.
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s Oilers could go the high octane procurement route but will need a driver
  • Lowetide: How much can Connor Brown help the Oilers?
  • Lowetide: Dmitri Samorukov is off to the Memorial Cup and is the Oilers’ fastest rising prospect
  • Jonathan Willis: Craig MacTavish leaves the Oilers, signalling the first major front office change under Ken Holland
  • Lowetide: What kind of coach should Ken Holland hire for the Oilers?
  • Jonathan Willis: Every Oilers AHL prospect, rated by how close they are to the NHL
  • Jonathan Willis: A resurgent Andrej Sekera gives the Oilers much-needed defensive options
  • Lowetide: Is Joe Gambardella destined to become the Oilers’ next Fernando Pisani?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Protector, supporter, confidant: Connor McDavid’s mom, Kelly, is his off-ice rock through good times and bad
  • Lowetide: An offseason plan for Ken Holland to remodel the Oilers roster.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland steadfast that buck stops with him as new Oilers GM.
  • Lowetide: How will Ken Holland proceed in Year 1 as Oilers general manager?
  • Jonathan Willis: What does the arrival of Ken Holland mean for the Oilers coaching search?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Prioritizing the roster issues that await Ken Holland in Edmonton.
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s procurement list for his rumored move to Edmonton will include front-office personnel
  • Jonathan Willis: A Milan Lucic trade is at the top of the to-do list for the Oilers’ next GM.

THE FINAL USHL 2019 LIST

1 LC Jack Hughes, U.S. National Development Team (USHL). He’s 5.10, 168 but an absolute rocket who takes no time at all to reach high speed, and he can make hockey plays at peak speed consistently.

2 LC Alex Turcotte, U.S. National Development Team (USHL). A strong two-way reputation, he is skilled and an excellent skater. Spiked late in rankings due to fading healthy worries.

3 LC Trevor Zegras, U.S. National Development Team (USHL). Undersized and highly skilled, elusive and aggressive with very good speed. I think he’s a Ken Holland type.

4 R Cole Caufield, U.S. National Development Team (USHL). He’s small, fast and a ridiculous scorer. Quick release, accurate. Does he drive to danger areas?

5 LD Cam York, U.S. National Development Team (USHL). The latest impact puck mover out of the USHL, great speed, passing and creativity.

6 L Matthew Boldy, U.S. National Development Team (USHL). Bigger winger with skill, he’s strong on the puck and can score goals.

7 R Bobby Brink, Sioux City (USHL). Small, fast and very skilled, he’s an intelligent player with great vision. He could be a bargain.

8 L Egor Afanasyev, Muskegon (USHL). His numbers are outstanding, plus he’s a big forward with a powerful stride and an excellent shot. I like him plenty.

9 G Spencer Knight, US National Team (USHL). A .929 save percentage in the USHL and a mountain of positive scouting reports have him as the top goaltender in this year’s draft.

10 L Robert Mastrosimone, Chicago (USHL). Some scouting reports have him as a top tier scoring prospect, he has skill for sure.

11 L Vladislav Firstov, Waterloo Blackhawks (USHL). Skill winger has a plus shot and delivered impressive results in his first North American season. I think he’ll land in the third round but that shot might get him drafted sooner.

12 RD Drew Helleson, US National Development Team (USHL). Impressive puck moving defender, his speed/size will make him popular on draft weekend.

13 LD Henry Thrun, US National Team (USHL). He’s a two-way defender who delivered sold offense (23 points in 28 games). Lacks one outstanding skill, that might cause him to slide.

14 RC Shane Pinto, Lincoln/Tri City (USHL). Big RHC is intriguing because of his size (6.02, 192) and scoring prowess (28 goals in 56 games). He’s a November 2000.

15 LC John Beecher, US National Development Team (USHL). Center with good size and two-way ability, Black Book has him as having “certain power forward elements to his game” including a strong skating style.

16 LD Alex Vlasic, US National Development Team (USHL) Big defender who will probably make his living on the defensive side of the puck, he’s 6.06, 192.

17. R Judd Caulfield, US National Development Team (USHL). He’s a power forward who HockeyProspect.com said “is capable of penetrating through defense using his above-average hands and excellent edges” a year ago.

18 L Marcus Kallionkieli, Sioux City (USHL). He scored 29 goals in 58 games, that’s excellent production. He’s 6.01, plus shot, he could be a steal in a deep draft of USHL scorers.

19 LC Matias Maccelli, Dubuque (USHL). He’s got all kinds of skill, that’s going to get him drafted. A October 2000, he was dominant (62, 31-41-72) in the USHL last season.

20 RD Ronnie Attard, Tri-City (USHL).He’s a 1999, so all of the numbers are skewed. Still, he’s a giant with a bomb for a shot and that has appeal.

21 LD Ryan Johnson, Sioux Falls (USHL). Smart, mobile defender who hasn’t shown offensive ability.

Sweden, 2019

1 LD Philip Broberg, AIK (Allsvenskan). He’s big and can skate like the wind, while also displaying puck moving ability. Offense may be shy, but Swedish blue can fool you.

2 RD Victor Soderstrom, Brynas (SHL). Impressive offensive player. Good skater, good decisions, very quick. A terrific prospect.

3 F Samuel Fagemo, Frolunda (SHL). I liked him a year ago, no reason to change now. A bona fide shooter, he has more clarity in his game now.

4 LD Tobias Björnfot, Djurgardens (SuperElite). Outstanding speed, he has impressive offensive talent but is an adventure without the puck.

5 L Nils Hoglander, Rogle (SHL). A small skill winger, he can beat defensemen clean. More playmaker than scorer, but has a quick release and an effective shot.

6 R Albin Grewe, Djurgardens (SHL). Rugged winger with skill. I think he’s the kind of player who will be drafted by Boston, Philadelphia or Anaheim.

7 LC Karl Henriksson, Frolunda (SuperElite). Small and very skilled forward, he is a cerebral player in the offensive zone. He might be a steal.

8 RW Simon Holmstrom, HV71 (SuperElite). Elite Prospects: A deft skater with some explosiveness to his game.. has remarkable passing ability and likes to set up teammates from below the goal line.

9 LD Albert Johansson, Farjestads (SuperElite). The scouting reports give us a picture of a fairly complete defenseman. That’s the best scouting report.

10 LC Oscar Bjerselius, Djurgardens (SuperElite). Good speed and size, he’s a solid two-way forward with enough offense to project him into pro hockey. Does he have enough offense to play in the NHL someday?

11 RD Simon Lundmark, Linkoping (SHL). A fascinating player, Lundmark’s scouting reports talk about his vision and outstanding outlet passing. He may go late but the potential is impressive.

Final Numbers

I have now completed the main leagues and nations for the 2019 draft. I’ll have final rankings June 1. The last four days have seen a lot of names listed, here they are by region:

  1. WHL 22
  2. USHL 21
  3. OHL 18
  4. QMJHL 16
  5. Finland 11
  6. Sweden 11
  7. Russia 7
  8. Hinterlands 6

Add in Alex Newhook (BCHL) and we’re at 113 names for 100 slots. I will tell you the big news of this draft is the USHL’s dominance compared to its own past. How that finds its way into history will be told over the next decade.

JOAKIM NYGARD

The most powerful word in the English language is “free” and it appears the Oilers have procured a talented player for only money. How talented? First the verbal, from our friend Swedish Poster.

“He is a great skater, not just top speed but excellent acceleration as well, can go full throttle both with and without the puck. Pretty good puck control and beats guys by quickly changing directions with the puck on his stick, his hands are pretty good but not much of a dangler. Will for sure be on highlight reels as the recipient of big hits as he has a tendency to get blown up once in a while when going full speed and trying to move around the D.”

“Second in goals this season but not a great finisher even if it’s gotten better, he just creates so much with his speed. Can make and take a pass but just average playmaking skills, can be creative with the puck at times though.”

“When teams manage to slow him down he’s much less of a threat but has gotten better at the meat and potato stuff in the offensive zone, keeping play alive. Carl Hagelin is the most common comparison I’ve seen and it’s a pretty good one.”

Decades of “the Oilers have re-signed Lennart Petrell” have worn me down, but I have to say this fellow appears to be from a different aisle than the normal spring signing. Calgary and Boston were strong on him, Edmonton was definitely fighting some good procurement departments on this one. And they won! Is it the Hollandaise?

50-MAN LIST (47)

As my article for The Athletic this morning drove home, the biggest issue on this roster is at forward. Yesterday’s signing addressed an area of need and we should expect more shuffling at all three forward positions over the summer.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260. We don’t get a media avail, but there’s lots to discuss. Steve Lansky will touch base on the Raptors, NHL finals and Vladdy Guerrero. Frank Seravalli from TSN will discuss the Oilers coaching situation, SCF and breaking news. Matt Iwanyk will continue his series on how he can make you better if you’d just listen to him and Eric Fawcett from North Pole Hoops will be by to talk Raps and chuckle as I try to pronounce North Pole Hoops. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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186 Responses to "The USHL, Sweden and the 2019 draft"

  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    Leavins “reports” early this morning that the Tippet deal (with assistants) is done and likely to be announced today.

    McKenzie then reports, not done.

    Rishaug follows up on McKenzie’s report that the process continues.

    Reid Wilkins advises the Oilers will not make an announcement today.

  2. Lowetide says:

    I think Nygard makes this team. I also think it adds to the chances of signing Alex Chiasson and trading Jujhar Khaira. Not sure how I feel about all that.

  3. OriginalPouzar says:

    Guelph and Rouyn-Noranda tonight – quite excited for this one – winner to take on host Halifax in the Championship on Sunday.

  4. OriginalPouzar says:

    Edmonton shopped in Sweden yesterday – not via draft though.

    Their recent shopping in Finland for the first round hasn’t worked out so far (Magnus, Jesse, prior to that Jesse N. comes to mind).

  5. wheatnoil says:

    I mentioned this on Twitter but Nygard sounds a lot like Todd Marchant.

  6. OriginalPouzar says:

    I will keep pumping him until he gets his NHL shot (first call-up this year) and never plays another NHL game but Lagesson is going to be a fan favorite – developed perfectly by the org as well – post-draft he spends 2 seasons in the NCAA, one in the Swedish Elite League (which I think was massive for him) and one full year in the AHL. He’ll start draft plus 5 in the AHL but will get his call up and “Thor” will endear himself to to the fanbase.

  7. Coiler says:

    Lowetide:
    I think Nygard makes this team. I also think it adds to the chances of signing Alex Chiasson and trading Jujhar Khaira. Not sure how I feel about all that.

    LT, do you think that scenario works out during the summer (at the draft?) or sometime during training camp? Khaira is a very useful player. Nygard’s skills might not translate well here in the NHL.

  8. OriginalPouzar says:

    “Edmonton was definitely fighting some good procurement departments on this one. And they won! Is it the Hollandaise?”

    Likely a mix of the sauce and some of the worst winger depth in the NHL (i.e. opportunity).

  9. Nit64 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Rishaug follows up on McKenzie’s report that the process continues.

    Ryan Rishaug
    ‏@TSNRyanRishaug
    As per @TSNBobMcKenzie on @TSN1260 radio, the deal with Tippett is not finalized yet. He has not agreed to terms and the process continues.

    ~ If they don’t meet his terms he’s going to make like Katz and threaten to move to Seattle. Oh wait… ~

  10. judgedrude says:

    wheatnoil:
    I mentioned this on Twitter but Nygard sounds a lot like Todd Marchant.

    “with hands”

  11. GMB3 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Edmonton shopped in Sweden yesterday – not via draft though.

    Their recent shopping in Finland for the first round hasn’t worked out so far (Magnus, Jesse, prior to that Jesse N. comes to mind).

    Magnus is a Swede

  12. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    “Edmonton was definitely fighting some good procurement departments on this one. And they won! Is it the Hollandaise?”

    Likely a mix of the sauce and some of the worst winger depth in the NHL (i.e. opportunity).

    GM: Joakim, here’s our LW depth behind Leon: Lucic, Rieder, Khaira, … more snails.

    Nygard: Um, OK, do you have a pen I could use?

  13. Reja says:

    wheatnoil:
    I mentioned this on Twitter but Nygard sounds a lot like Todd Marchant.

    Paul Byron as well blazing speedsters but average hands but speed does create chances

  14. dustrock says:

    Nygard can fly. That alone will get him some looks.

    There was the one clip posted on twitter of him blowing through 3 players, McDavid style.

    I think Marchant is a pretty decent comparison.

    I believe Swedishposter says Hagelin and that makes sense as well.

  15. Jaxon says:

    GMB3: Magnus is a Swede

    Interestingly, Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson and Jesse Puljujarvi were both born in Sweden but they identify as both Swedish and Finnish, which is why Paajarvi kept this Fin last name and dropped the Swede last name even though he plays for Sweden in Int’l tournies and Puljujarvi plays for Finland in Int’l tournies. So I’d say it’s a bit of a gray area and would forgive someone for saying they shopped in Finland. They’re kinda Finnish-Swedes.

  16. JimmyV1965 says:

    I guess I’ve been conditioned to accept overpayments from the Oil. I was fully expecting $1.5 mill for two years. This type of contract would have been ugh at best. Not a huge overpayment, but another paper cut. But it sounds like $1 mill for one year, which is absolutely wonderful.

  17. Jaxon says:

    Repost from late yesterday more pertinent to Lowetide’s post today. Sorry for those who have already read this and sorry for the length of this but I think it’s useful for discussing the USNTDP players in this year’s draft. For those of you who read yesterday’s post, I’ve added players who did not meet the TOI threshold to convey why it matters.

    5v5P1e is a projection of Primary Points adjusted for age/era/league and then given median Top 6 TOI in the NHL. 13.42 minimum eTOI/GP threshold:

    #) YEAR – Name – 5v5P1e- eTOI/GP
    1) 2005 – Sidney Crosby – 48.18 – 15.28
    2) 2015 – Connor McDavid – 44.02 – 16.89
    3) 2018 – Andrei Svechnikov – 38.80 – 15.07
    4) 2015 – Mitchell Marner – 37.49 – 13.79
    5) 2015 – Dylan Strome – 36.80 – 15.49
    6) 2014 – Robby Fabbri – 33.93 – 14.99
    7) 2007 – Patrick Kane – 32.41 – 14.22
    8) 2013 – Nathan MacKinnon – 30.49 – 15.9
    9) 2014 – Sam Bennett – 30.15 – 15.87
    10) 2014 – Spencer Watson – 30.10 – 14.21
    11) 2010 – Taylor Hall – 29.83 – 13.88
    12) 2013 – Nicolas Petan – 29.48 – 17.21
    13) 2016 – Pierre-Luc Dubois – 29.43 – 15.4
    14) 2016 – Alex DeBrincat – 29.20 – 17.03
    15) 2016 – Cameron Morrison – 29.13 – 15.25
    16) 2016 – Adam Mascherin – 29.04 – 16.06
    17) 2008 – Steven Stamkos – 28.87 – 13.74
    18) 2009 – Scott Glennie – 28.83 – 14.12
    19) 2018 – Oliver Wahlstrom – 28.79 – 16.26
    20) 2013 – Jonathan Drouin – 28.62 – 15.98
    21) 2010 – Tyler Seguin – 28.53 – 17.52
    22) 2019 – Philip Tomasino – 28.348 – 13.93*
    23) 2011 – Ryan Strome – 28.11 – 15.79
    24) 2006 – Chris Stewart – 28.11 – 13.9
    25) 2009 – Evander Kane – 28.10 – 15.13
    26) 2005 – Bobby Ryan – 28.02 – 15.93
    27) 2017 – Owen Tippett – 27.81 – 15.92
    28) 2010 – Justin Shugg – 27.73 – 13.55
    29) 2018 – Jonathan Gruden – 27.62 – 14.43
    30) 2019 – Cole Caufield – 27.357 – 13.72*
    31) 2017 – Nick Suzuki – 26.98 – 15.24
    32) 2009 – John Tavares – 26.74 – 15.87
    33) 2010 – Tyler Toffoli – 26.72 – 15.67
    34) 2014 – Nick Ritchie – 26.42 – 16.5
    35) 2019 – Jack Hughes – 26.409 – 13.42*
    36) 2014 – Nikolaj Ehlers – 26.06 – 14.99
    37) 2008 – Tyler Ennis – 26.04 – 15.06
    38) 2014 – Leon Draisaitl – 25.93 – 17.2
    39) 2005 – Evan Brophey – 25.73 – 14.67
    40) 2016 – Clayton Keller – 25.67 – 15.74
    41) 2005 – Steve Downie – 25.41 – 13.64
    42) 2019 – Dylan Cozens – 25.395 – 14.55*
    43) 2014 – Chase De Leo – 25.38 – 14.18
    44) 2019 – Bobby Brink – 25.347 – 15.97*
    45) 2017 – Gabriel Vilardi – 25.35 – 16.49
    46) 2011 – Boone Jenner – 25.32 – 14.49
    47) 2016 – Boris Katchouk – 25.28 – 14.35
    48) 2019 – Arthur Kaliyev – 25.251 – 16.16
    49) 2005 – Cal O’Reilly – 25.24 – 14.15
    50) 2011 – Shane Prince – 25.13 – 18.16
    51) 2016 – Kieffer Bellows – 25.13 – 17.51
    52) 2011 – Gabriel Landeskog – 25.12 – 15
    53) 2008 – Jordan Eberle – 25.12 – 14.35
    54) 2011 – Sven BArtschi – 25.09 – 14.81
    55) 2019 – Connor McMichael – 25.078 – 14.14*
    56) 2016 – Matthew Tkachuk – 25.03 – 14.69

    Players below 13.42 eTOI/GP threshold (new threshold to keep Hughes, was 13.74) from USNTDP:
    2019 – Alex Turcotte – 42.235 – 12.85*
    2019 – Michael Gildon – 32.279 – 10.30*
    2018 – Joel Farabee – 32.23 – 13.24
    2017 – Jacob Tortora – 27.85 – 13.06
    2019 – Matthew Boldy – 27.586 – 12.70*
    2019 – Trevor Zegras – 27.223 – 12.60*
    2019 – John Beecher – 25.867 – 10.54*

    From the 2014 to 2018 drafts, no player has made a successful jump from the USNTDP to NCAA in their draft+1 season except Clayton Keller and Dylan Larkin. Not Joel Farabee, Cam Morrison, Oliver Wahlstrom, Jacob Tortora, Jonathan Gruden, Kieffer Bellows, Evan Barratt, Shane Bowers, Josh Norris, Jake Wise, Jeremy Bracco, or Sonny Milano. Alex Tuch and Jack Roslovic have had some success but took a while to get there. When they moved to the NCAA almost all of them scored at a 15 to 20 pts in 30 to 40 games pace. Larkin and Keller are the exception; they scored at a higher rate in the NCAA and moved onto the NHL in their draft+2 season.

    I think you’d expect more from some very highly touted players in their draft year. Has the high quality and depth of teammates and the lack of competition in the USHL pumped their tires too much recently making the equivalencies off?

    Their eTOI/GP is also a concern. Usually drivers of play are getting upwards of 13.7 eTOI/GP. Many USNTDP players are getting a full minute less than that. That cutoff of 13.7 usually helps to separate the wheat from the chaff, but with how highly thought of players like Farabee, Hughes, Zegras, Boldy, and Turcotte are I wonder if the cutoff should be lower. Or, are they overrated? It will be interesting to follow this for the next few years to see how these players from 2014 through 2019 drafts do. Clayton Keller and Dylan Larkin are the only ones to break out so far. Will Hughes go straight to the NHL? Will Turcotte?

    Eichel, Matthews, and both Tkachuks moved on from the USNTDP before their draft season.

    I think the program may be improving but the competition is not and therefore they may lack a bit of growth during their time in the program, which is why you see elite players like Eichel, Matthews and the Tkachuks go elsewhere to continue to mature.

    All this to say, I’m still not sure what to make of the USNTDP players in this draft. I’m not sure what to make of Turcotte’s great production numbers (only below Crosby and McDavid since 2005) combined with his low eTOI. I’m not sure what to make of the fact that the supposed elite talent in the draft, Hughes, isn’t even in the top 5 in 5v5 production on his own team of players the same age as him. He’s 6th in Adjusted Primary Pts/60 on that team, and his TOI is relatively low when compared to other North American players who made it to NHL careers. He’s below the 13.7 eTOI/GP at 13.42. I was warning about Farabee’s low TOI last draft. Still not sure what he’ll turn into, but early returns are not promising. Boldy and Zegras are another half minute lower than Farabee and scoring at a lower pace (32 for Farabee to 27 projected 5v5 Primary Pts for Boldy and Zegras).

    By the numbers, I believe that Tomasino, Caufield may be safer picks than players outside Turcotte, Hughes as the production (Turcotte) and scouting reports (Hughes) are hard to ignore. Cozens and Brink (not part of the USNTDP but in the USHL) climb the board based on numbers, too. Cozens and Kaliyev -being young, big, and getting lots of ice-time this season- compare fairly well to Draisaitl.

    Here are the players who had a high rate of Adjusted 5v5 primary points but didn’t meet the 13.42 threshold:
    2019 – Alex Turcotte – 42.235 – 12.85*
    2008 – Eric O’Dell – 34.43 – 12.6
    2019 – Michael Gildon – 32.279 – 10.30*
    2018 – Joel Farabee – 32.23 – 13.24*
    2007 – Sam Gagner – 32.22 – 12.79
    2006 – Bobby Hughes – 30.95 – 12.78
    2006 – Riley Holzapfel – 30.48 – 13.17
    2013 – Oliver Bjorkstrand – 29.14 – 12.57
    2006 – John Hughes – 28.95 – 12.24
    2015 – Zachary Senyshyn – 28.68 – 11.27
    2014 – Andrew Mangiapane – 28.45 – 11.22
    2007 – Stefan Legein – 28.20 – 11.37
    2017 – Jacob Tortora – 27.85 – 13.06*
    2007 – Dale Mitchell – 27.72 – 12.68
    2008 – Greg Nemisz – 27.66 – 11.55
    2019 – Matthew Boldy – 27.586 – 12.70*
    2019 – Trevor Zegras – 27.223 – 12.60*
    2005 – Devin Setoguchi – 27.02 – 13.34
    2015 – Blake Speers – 26.97 – 12.96
    2006 – Codey Burki – 26.69 – 13.13
    2017 – Ivan Lodnia – 26.48 – 11.78
    2005 – Daniel Ryder – 26.44 – 13.13
    2010 – Austin Watson – 26.07 – 11.48
    2013 – Max Domi – 26.01 – 13.15
    2019 – John Beecher – 25.867 – 10.54*
    2005 – Radek Smolenak – 25.62 – 12.72
    2008 – Cody Hodgson – 25.47 – 11.3
    2005 – Francis Charette – 25.27 – 11.54

    It’s a pretty damning list. There are a few players who made it, but even of those who made it, most have been fringe players, spent time in the AHL, or been plagued with being inconsistent. Some had one or two great years and then flamed out. These are not the players you are shooting for with a top 8 pick.

    That is why the threshold of time on ice seems like a good indicator of NHL ability. And also why the USNTDP has me so flummoxed.

    PS Sorry again for the big wall of text.

  18. Wilde says:

    Here’s Färjestad’s forwards Corgis

    https://www.shl.se/statistik/spelare/extendedmetrics?season=2018&gameType=regular&count=-1&position=F&status=All&team=752c-752c12zB7Z&vsTeam=All&outcome=all&location=all&sortKey=FF_Perc&invert=false

    – Nygård’s 4th among forwards who played pretty much the whole season in FF%; 6th total

    – 5th / / 7th in CF%

    – Don’t know what their methodology is for CCF% and FFC% (corsi ‘close and fenwick ‘close’) so I don’t really want to deal with them

  19. Wilde says:

    Quick note on overseas possession shares – something that jumped out at me when I was looking through past EU draft booms and busts is that Heiskanen’s possession effects were /insane/.

  20. Durag says:

    wheatnoil:
    I mentioned this on Twitter but Nygard sounds a lot like Todd Marchant.

    I was thinking Drake Caggiula. Maybe we can flip him mid-season for a #15 d-man with term!

  21. Woogie63 says:

    Coiler: LT, do you think that scenario works out during the summer (at the draft?) or sometime during training camp? Khaira is a very useful player. Nygard’s skills might not translate well here in the NHL.

    I see Khaira moving to center a play-off 3a/b line

    Lucic-Khaira-Chiasson/Kassian

    for 12 minutes a night would be tough line to play against.

  22. Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR says:

    How they could even contemplate trading Khaira is beyond me. Useful player on hopefully a decent contract. What would trading him fix? He should easily be a middle 6 winger on this team in the fall.

  23. godot10 says:

    We’ve reached peak USHL. One is buying tech stocks in 2000 or unicorn IPO’s in 2019.

    #TeamKrebs (I am assuming Cozens is gone).

    Edit:
    **The Americans didn’t win the Hlinka and they didn’t win the World-under-18s. Non-confirmation of the draft hype.

  24. Nit64 says:

    godot10:
    We’ve reached peak USHL.One is buying tech stocks in 2000 or unicorn IPO’s in 2019.

    #TeamKrebs (I am assuming Cozens is gone).

    We’ve reached the Development Team singularity where you have to parse out radiation at the event horizon to suss out who is actually zooming whom. Breaking through the bubble which of the 6 really belong in the top 10?

  25. Wilde says:

    Durag: I was thinking Drake Caggiula. Maybe we can flip him mid-season for a #15 d-man with term!

    How dare you speak about Bakersfield’s D corps this way.

  26. oilersfan says:

    Jaxon,

    What about Kyle Connor?

  27. GMB3 says:

    Jaxon: Interestingly, Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson and Jesse Puljujarvi were both born in Sweden but they identify as both Swedish and Finnish, which is why Paajarvi kept this Fin last name and dropped the Swede last name even though he plays for Sweden in Int’l tournies and Puljujarvi plays for Finland in Int’l tournies. So I’d say it’s a bit of a gray area and would forgive someone for saying they shopped in Finland. They’re kinda Finnish-Swedes.

    Well there you go. No more drafting Swedish-Finnish guys.

  28. Professor Q says:

    Jaxon,

    Eichel went to University, so that’s a bit different. He was just too old, but Universities also play the USNTDP.

    Matthews went to make more money, and maybe he was adventurous and needed a break from NA (and needed to stay away from the CHL or NCAA).

    The Tkachuks had different philosophies and one wanted to play for the Knights and the other wanted to do the NCAA and be different than his older brother.

    So many different factors and nuances to consider.

  29. Jordan says:

    judgedrude: “with hands”

    I wasn’t around to say this yesterday, so please forgive my late addition.

    The Oilers already have Todd Marchant with Hands.

    His name is Connor. Has some potential as a speedy scorer.

    (oh yeah – nailed the dad joke).

    Very happy with the Nygard signing. A great start to filling out the roster around our strong centres.

  30. Bruce McCurdy says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Leavins “reports” early this morning that the Tippet deal (with assistants) is done and likely to be announced today.

    McKenzie then reports, not done.

    Rishaug follows up on McKenzie’s report that the process continues.

    Reid Wilkins advises the Oilers will not make an announcement today.

    why the quotaton marks? Seems like a cheap shot.

    Like all professional media types, Kurt doesn’t bat 1.000 but he’s got a wide range of sources & has gotten some significant scoops during the time I’ve worked with him.

  31. hunter1909 says:

    Hunter1909 Official Death March™ Update:

    Due to diligent archival activity, there will be a Major Announcement At one time during the next 72 Hours.

  32. Jethro Tull says:

    Bruce McCurdy: why the quotaton marks? Seems like a cheap shot.

    Like all professional media types, Kurt doesn’t bat 1.000 but he’s got a wide range of sources & has gotten some significant scoops during the time I’ve worked with him.

    MacT took the Skype password with him.

  33. dustrock says:

    Jaxon,

    You’re doing the Lord’s work, Jaxon. Thanks for this.

    And a reminder Keller and Larkin were picked later. I wonder if there is a small chance that Turcotte falls. I have him at #4 but otherwise am hoping for Cozens.

    Dach I remain unconvinced.

  34. Jaxon says:

    oilersfan:
    Jaxon,

    What about Kyle Connor?

    Connor didn’t go through the USNTDP. He played in the USHL though, just like Bobby Brink this year.

  35. Jaxon says:

    Professor Q:
    Jaxon,

    Eichel went to University, so that’s a bit different. He was just too old, but Universities also play the USNTDP.

    Matthews went to make more money, and maybe he was adventurous and needed a break from NA (and needed to stay away from the CHL or NCAA).

    The Tkachuks had different philosophies and one wanted to play for the Knights and the other wanted to do the NCAA and be different than his older brother.

    So many different factors and nuances to consider.

    Very good points and, yes, nuance is required. But the numbers are where I began before looking for nuance and trying to understand why the numbers show some disparity. I was under the impression that Matthews was hoping to improve his draft stock by playing against men. I’ve never heard it was about money. I think all those players probably had opportunity to play and opportunity for growth at the top of their lists when making the decision on where to play in their draft season. But the fact remains that they are not part of the data set that doesn’t have a great track record in the past 5 years.

  36. Nit64 says:

    hunter1909:
    Hunter1909 Official Death March™ Update:

    Due to diligent archival activity, there will be a Major Announcement At one time during the next 72 Hours.

    While the Death March team is scraping through the archive don’t miss this “subway” entry.

    https://lowetide.ca/2018/09/11/2018-19-rookie-camp-game-two-oilers-vs-nait-ooks-and-macewan-griffins/comment-page-1/#comment-760521

  37. Nit64 says:

    Jaxon: Very good points and, yes, nuance is required. But the numbers are where I began before looking for nuance and trying to understand why the numbers show some disparity. I was under the impression that Matthews was hoping to improve his draft stock by playing against men. I’ve never heard it was about money. I think all those players probably had opportunity to play and opportunity for growth at the top of their lists when making the decision on where to play in their draft season. But the fact remains that they are not part of the data set that doesn’t have a great track record in the past 5 years.

    If I recall correctly he tried to force a trade to his preferred powerhouse WHL team. That sort of thing happens a lot, but when it didn’t he bolted to Europe.

  38. Andy Dufresne says:

    If he’s not moved out, this will definitley be a make or break season for Khaira. He will be 25 years old at the start of the season and middle six wingers in the new NHL need to be point producers, which he is not. A useful 4th line checker? Yes, but those are replaceable commodities. I like JJ but at some point he’s got to take the next step. The time is now.

  39. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Nit64: While the Death March team is scraping through the archive don’t miss this “subway” entry.

    https://lowetide.ca/2018/09/11/2018-19-rookie-camp-game-two-oilers-vs-nait-ooks-and-macewan-griffins/comment-page-1/#comment-760521

    Well done.

    I didn’t know you could edit old posts.

    LT should disable that.

  40. Reja says:

    I see the payed Shrill for the flames Craig Button is already giving his usual sneaky and blatant cheap shots on the Tippett signing saying he’ll stifle McDavid and Leon’s offence with the trap. Both forewords are coming of career years. Sather or Lowe must of really tortured Button back in the day. Maybe Jim should get his brother Larry to tune in Button.I would love love to see Bouchard put up 50 points this year just to see and hear how he would try to weasel out of the bashing he gave Evan last year.

  41. Andy Dufresne says:

    One of the many things I worry about with a new Coach and GM is going through the blender again for half a season trying to “evaluate” the talent. Hopefully Hitchcock has some influence on the situation at hand and we see some consistency of pairings/linemates. We need to hit the ground running and win a playoff spot by Christmas. We need Kassian on the top line and Chaisson on line two, come hell or high water, until someone forces the issue with exceptional play, or we somehow procure a bonafide top six forward, which Nygard is not.

  42. Oil2Oilers says:

    The Nygard deal is promising, speed returning to the Oilers line up!

    It also sets up my preferred solution to the biggest problem of the summer, finding Lucic a new home.

    Lucic + 1.5M retained + 2020 3d for Brandon Sutter.

    Draisaitl – McDavid – Kassian
    Benson – Nuge – Puljujarvi
    Nygard – Sutter – Gagner
    Khaira – Cave – Marody

    Still a developing team at the wings but this where they are, plus as the defensive youth make there way they will free up cap space and trade assets to further improve.

  43. Nit64 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Well done.

    I didn’t know you could edit old posts.

    LT should disable that.

    Yeah. Probably a few perfect March Madness brackets on the back pages.

    Typically there’s a time limit for editing. Whoever does the summer move can probably take care of that.

  44. jp says:

    judgedrude: “with hands”

    Marchant managed 20 goals one year with 8 other seasons of at least 13.

    He scored 40 points twice with 8 more yrs of 30+.

    Personally I’d be ecstatic if Nygard can reach 13G and 30Pts, I just don’t think it’s particularly likely. I like the signing, I think expectations should be kept in check.

  45. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Re: Nygard’s numbers, interesting to see where he ranked.

    52 GP = full SHL season, his 3rd in a row.

    21 goals = 2nd in SHL.

    15 EV goals = 1st

    153 shots = 5th

    His 7th year in the league, he improved year-over-year in raw goals, G/GP & P/GP every single season. But the change of scenery, ice surface, language & culture is apt to be jarring. Might take him a bit to settle in.

    Still, a mid-caree forward who can skate, score goals & kill penalties is worth the dice roll. Nice signing.

  46. ArmchairGM says:

    Woogie63: I see Khaira moving to center a play-off 3a/b line

    Lucic-Khaira-Chiasson/Kassian

    for 12 minutes a night would be tough line to play against.

    I’d go Gambardella – Khaira – Kassian, adds speed to the size thing you were going for. This line mimics the abilities of St. Louis’ famous 4th line.

  47. Pouzar says:

    Bruce McCurdy: why the quotaton marks? Seems like a cheap shot.

    Like all professional media types, Kurt doesn’t bat 1.000 but he’s got a wide range of sources & has gotten some significant scoops during the time I’ve worked with him.

    It’s reporting indeed. First page on the Winnipeg Sun Website!

  48. Andy Dufresne says:

    Above ALL the other variables, Lucic is the fulcrum apon which our season rests. Good luck and Godspeed Ken Holland.

  49. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Nit64: While the Death March team is scraping through the archive don’t miss this “subway” entry.

    https://lowetide.ca/2018/09/11/2018-19-rookie-camp-game-two-oilers-vs-nait-ooks-and-macewan-griffins/comment-page-1/#comment-760521

    Really hoped my 86 points prediction wasn’t an optimistic one. This organization, man.

  50. Reja says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    One of the many things I worry about with a new Coach and GM is going through the blender again for half a season trying to “evaluate” the talent. Hopefully Hitchcock has some influence on the situation at hand and we see some consistency of pairings/linemates. We need to hit the ground running and win a playoff spot by Christmas. We need Kassian on the top line and Chaisson on line two, come hell or high water, until someone forces the issue with exceptional play, or we somehow procure a bonafide top six forward, which Nygard is not.

    If we’re way back by December just replace him with Joel Quenneville

  51. Munny says:

    Tippett: “Well, TMac got $3M a season, why would I take less?”

  52. Pescador says:

    Oil2Oilers:
    The Nygard deal is promising, speed returning to the Oilers line up!

    It also sets up my preferred solution to the biggest problem of the summer, finding Lucic a new home.

    Lucic + 1.5M retained + 2020 3d for Brandon Sutter.

    Draisaitl – McDavid – Kassian
    Benson – Nuge – Puljujarvi
    Nygard – Sutter – Gagner
    Khaira – Cave – Marody

    Still a developing team at the wings but this where they are, plus as the defensive youth make there way they will free up cap space and trade assets to further improve.

    I always enjoy reading line up projections, so thx for posting yours.
    The Oilers have enough cap space to add a good top 6 winger.
    If KH can add a substantial veteran then the roster could shape up like this:
    Draisaitl – McDavid – Kassian
    Benson – RNH – XXX
    Khaira – Sutter – Puljujarvi
    Nygard – Cave – Gagner
    Marody.
    This is close to where I believe the forward lines will shake out.
    Anyone think that this is worth a look on D?
    Nurse – Klefbom
    Sekera – Larsson
    Jones – Benning
    Perrson

  53. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Well done.

    I didn’t know you could edit old posts.

    LT should disable that.

    Well, then you wouldn’t be able to edit new posts either.

    There has to be some honour among us thieves…

  54. Munny says:

    Reja: If we’re way back by December just replace him with JoelQuenneville

    Somehow I think Dale Tallon would be a little upset, 😉

  55. Munny says:

    Oil2Oilers,

    Pescador,

    No Chiasson?

  56. ArmchairGM says:

    Pescador: I always enjoy reading line up projections, so thx for posting yours.
    The Oilers have enough cap space to add a good top 6 winger.
    If KH can add a substantial veteran then the roster could shape up like this:
    Draisaitl – McDavid – Kassian
    Benson – RNH – XXX
    Khaira – Sutter – Puljujarvi
    Nygard – Cave – Gagner
    Marody.
    This is close to where I believe the forward lines will shake out.

    I’d like to see something like this:

    Burakovsky – McDavid – Puljujarvi
    Benson – Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl
    Lucic – Fulppula – Gagner
    Gambardella – Khaira – Kassian

    … but Nygard throws a wrench in there somewhat. I imagine he’ll be a 3rd liner if he makes the team. Is it possible to trade Lucic?

  57. pts2pndr says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    If he’s not moved out, this will definitley be a make or break season for Khaira. He will be 25 years old at the start of the season and middle six wingers in the new NHL need to be point producers, which he is not. A useful 4th line checker? Yes, but those are replaceable commodities. I like JJ but at some point he’s got to take the next step. The time is now.

    Good wheels, size and physical. The points will come if he isn’t jerked around the roster. He has played the part of the Swiss army knife. He is also good on the PK and can play centre or wing. Pretty valuable player given his contract and I would say not that easily replaceable at his cost.

  58. Pescador says:

    GMB3: Well there you go. No more drafting Swedish-Finnish guys.

    Well if you come across any prospects named
    Magnus Puljujarvi-Svenson
    you kinda have too

  59. Oilman99 says:

    Lowetide:
    I think Nygard makes this team. I also think it adds to the chances of signing Alex Chiasson and trading Jujhar Khaira. Not sure how I feel about all that.

    Not sure how you can rate Nygard ahead of Benson when he hasn’t played a game on the NHL sized ice surface on this side of the pond. There will be adjustments to the smaller ice surface where there is less room to move, and less time to make plays.

  60. Pescador says:

    Munny:
    Oil2Oilers,

    Pescador,

    No Chiasson?

    What’s his contract ask?
    2 years @ $1.75M that’s my offer.

  61. Munny says:

    jp: Personally I’d be ecstatic if Nygard can reach 13G and 30Pts, I just don’t think it’s particularly likely. I like the signing, I think expectations should be kept in check.

    I agree. I was combing through hockeydb last night to find guys who had played in both leagues somewhere in their mid-twenties. There were only a few and they didn’t carry a lot of offense with them to the NHL. Now that’s an infinitesimally small sample size to base a projection on, and is so dependent on usage and linemates, but I think we should be ecstatic if he breaks double-digits.

    Edit: I see him starting on the 4th and gets moved up if we see some success.

  62. Pescador says:

    Reja: Paul Byron as well blazing speedsters but average hands but speed doescreate chances

    I really like Paul Byron
    Edit: $3.4M is a little rich for a
    30yr old signed until 2023

  63. Nit64 says:

    Munny: Well, then you wouldn’t be able to edit new posts either.

    There has to be some honour among us thieves…

    Time limits for editing can be configured

  64. Jordan says:

    Re: Nygard signing.

    I’ve missed the most significant impact of his signing.

    Puljujarvi.

    Mentor. Friend. Countryman.

    Nygard Nuge / 3C Signing Puljujarvi for the full season on the 3rd line.

    That’s setting up a player for success.

  65. Alpine says:

    Jordan:
    Re: Nygard signing.

    I’ve missed the most significant impact of his signing.

    Puljujarvi.

    Mentor.Friend.Countryman.

    Nygard Nuge / 3C Signing Puljujarvi for the full season on the 3rd line.

    That’s setting up a player for success.

    They’re from different countries?

  66. Pescador says:

    ArmchairGM: I’d like to see something like this:

    Burakovsky – McDavid – Puljujarvi
    Benson – Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl
    Lucic – Fulppula – Gagner
    Gambardella – Khaira – Kassian

    … but Nygard throws a wrench in there somewhat. I imagine he’ll be a 3rd liner if he makes the team. Is it possible to trade Lucic?

    Hey AGM,
    I think I understand the reasoning here, 97 is substantial enough to fly with 2 unprovens for wingers.
    But based on the season that Burakovsky & Puljujarvi just had, I ‘m not prepared to take that kind of risk.
    Benson w/ 93 & 29 would be a perfect landing spot.
    Filpulla would be a decent bet for the 3C
    I would prefer Khaira @4C to Cave but I am not a fan of Gambardella. Oil need to get faster not slower IMO

  67. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Decades of “the Oilers have re-signed Lennart Petrell” have worn me down, but I have to say this fellow appears to be from a different aisle than the normal spring signing.

    Reminds me of one of my favourite LT post titles of all time:

    https://lowetide.ca/2012/06/19/oilers-sign-petrell-confuse-thousands/

  68. ArmchairGM says:

    Pescador: Hey AGM,
    I think I understand the reasoning here, 97 is substantial enough to fly with 2 unprovens for wingers.
    But based on the season that Burakovsky & Puljujarvi just had, I ‘m not prepared to take that kind of risk.
    Benson w/ 93 & 29 would be a perfect landing spot.
    Filpulla would be a decent bet for the 3C

    Based on the season Puljujarvi just had? You mean the one where he played with pain and ended in surgery? Yeah, I wouldn’t put much stock in that. If you look at 3 years’ combined data, Puljujarvi scores at about 99% of Draisaitl’s rate when next to McDavid (sans Lucic). McDavid’s scoring rate with Puljujarvi vs Draisaitl (3 years data again) is identical. IDENTICAL. And that’s with Lucic on McDavid’s portside for a large percentage of the “with Puljujarvi” time.

    Althought the sample is somewhat limited, in the past 3 years Draisaitl has scored at a higher rate when with RNH vs with McDavid.

    Burakovsky is a wildcard, but he has played with McDavid before and shouldn’t cost much to acquire and sign.

    In points-per-60 for 5v5 scoring over the last 3 seasons combined:

    Draisaitl with McDavid: 2.79 (1981:04)
    Draisatl with RNH: 3.09 (271:48)

    McDavid with Draisaitl: 3.24 (1981:04)
    McDavid with Puljujarvi: 3.24 (407:45 – includes TOI with Lucic)

    Puljujarvi with McDavid: 2.76 (152:10 – when Lucic is not on the other wing – w/ Maroon, Slepyshev, Caggiula, etc.)

    It’s worth taking a flyer on. The lines can be re-jigged (and they will be anyhow) if the 1st line doesn’t develop chemistry quickly – but I’m betting they will.

  69. blainer says:

    Where we now have a GM who seems to not be afraid of drafting or signing Russians is there anyone here thinking he drafts Podkolzin..

    Other than Turcotte I’m very weary of drafting any of the Americans. Not overly high on Podkolzin either but Holland doesn’t seem the type who worries about his staying in Russia for two years.

    As crazy as it may sound I would have no problem drafting another RT shot D in Soderstrom.

  70. Munny says:

    Nit64: Time limits for editing can be configured

    Doesn’t that require a plug-in? Not sure LT is running Disqus (etc.).

  71. Munny says:

    blainer: As crazy as it may sound I would have no problem drafting another RT shot D in Soderstrom.

    I’m hoping SwedishPoster gives us a breakdown on those two highly ranked Swedish Dmen.

  72. Nit64 says:

    Munny: Doesn’t that require a plug-in?Not sure LT is running Disqus (etc.).

    Understand the site is being moved this summer. That’s the time to re-evaluate time limits on edits.

  73. blainer says:

    Munny: I’m hoping SwedishPoster gives us a breakdown on those two highly ranked Swedish Dmen.

    Don’t really know much about the player but i do know it is a very coveted position. A Rt shot D is something most teams are always looking for in any part of the draft IMO.

    I would actually be surprised if he is even available to us. I have a strange feeling that this could be one of those drafts that the top ten plays out different than most mock drafts.

  74. Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Above ALL the other variables, Lucic is the fulcrum apon which our season rests. Good luck and Godspeed Ken Holland.

    This is 100% fact. Holland can’t even devise a plan until he makes a decision on Lucic. I still think odds are 50/50 Lucic stays, but hope I’m way off there.

  75. geowal says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Decades of “the Oilers have re-signed Lennart Petrell” have worn me down, but I have to say this fellow appears to be from a different aisle than the normal spring signing.

    Reminds me of one of my favourite LT post titles of all time:

    https://lowetide.ca/2012/06/19/oilers-sign-petrell-confuse-thousands/

    Back when a young Woodguy (1.0) was commenting.

  76. Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR says:

    If we could fit him under the cap, could we not pluck Miller from Vegas for one of the D prospects and a pick. They need cap space badly. That cap situation got out of control in a hurry! And Miller would look great on a second pair with Nurse.

  77. Pescador says:

    ArmchairGM,

    ArmchairGM: Based on the season Puljujarvi just had? You mean the one where he played with pain and ended in surgery? Yeah, I wouldn’t put much stock in that. If you look at 3 years’ combined data, Puljujarvi scores at about 99% of Draisaitl’s rate when next to McDavid (sans Lucic). McDavid’s scoring rate with Puljujarvi vs Draisaitl (3 years data again) is identical. IDENTICAL. And that’s with Lucic on McDavid’s portside for a large percentage of the “with Puljujarvi” time.

    Althought the sample is somewhat limited, in the past 3 years Draisaitl has scored at a higher rate when with RNH vs with McDavid.

    Burakovsky is a wildcard, but he has played with McDavid before and shouldn’t cost much to acquire and sign.

    In points-per-60 for 5v5 scoring over the last 3 seasons combined:

    Draisaitl with McDavid: 2.79 (1981:04)
    Draisatl with RNH: 3.09 (271:48)

    McDavid with Draisaitl: 3.24 (1981:04)
    McDavid with Puljujarvi: 3.24 (407:45 – includes TOI with Lucic)

    Puljujarvi with McDavid: 2.76 (152:10 – when Lucic is not on the other wing – w/ Maroon, Slepyshev, Caggiula, etc.)

    It’s worth taking a flyer on. The lines can be re-jigged (and they will be anyhow) if the 1st line doesn’t develop chemistry quickly – but I’m betting they will.

    Puljujarvi’s confidence is in need of repair, let’s see where he’s at after he recovers from his surgery.
    I can get behind Puljujarvi on McDavid’s wing, but I would keep Draisaitl at 1LW to help Jesse as much as possible.
    I suggested earlier that the Oilers had enough cap space to add
    a winger like Hoffman for around $5.5 – $6M
    Are you suggesting that cap space would be better spent on 3C & Burakovsky?
    I could see a trade scenario where Puljujarvi is flipped for Burakovsky. Haha

  78. Minister D- says:

    Y’know, in a perfect world, Vladislav Firstov would have gone first ov.

  79. Munny says:

    Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR:
    If we could fit him under the cap, could we not pluck Miller from Vegas for one of the D prospects and a pick.They need cap space badly.That cap situation got out of control in a hurry!And Miller would look great on a second pair with Nurse.

    They’re probably going to have to devise some stopgap measure to cover 2RD, depending (as some have commented above) on Holland’s ability to divest salary. Miller is an option, as is Hainsey, if only because it would make Godot happy lol.

  80. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Munny,

    I would be very very very careful about recommending Hainsey in any sort of non- 3rd pair role.

    I watched a lot of Leafs this year and Hainsey slowed down markedly in the back half of this season. He shouldn’t have been batting anywhere near where he was in the playoffs.

    IMO the cliff is near if not already past, he’s a Brodziak 2.0

  81. Jordan says:

    geowal: Back when a young Woodguy (1.0) was commenting.

    Actually Woodguy (1.0) wasn’t young. That’s why there’s a Woodguy v2.0.

    Some posters think that Woodguy (1.0) is off arguing with Rickithebear and DashingSilverFox at the assisted living complex in Barrhead Alberta.

    Others have suggested that after a very late night with Hunter1909 and a 3rd bottle of Glenfiddich, the two men decided to enact the Lowe v. Burke barn fight that never happened. After the firefighters finished dousing the remains of the barn the next day, Woodguy (1.0) was never found.

    The true believers though are convinced they know the truth. They claim that Woodguy (1.0) overcame the boundaries that insulate our individual consciousnesses within the matrix and was actually able to merge with the reality generation code. This is why we have Connor McDavid, and how Leon has become the German Mark Messier. He lives on in the code actively fighting against the taint of Sam Pullock who’s ghost still haunts the and disrupts our reality, most recently at the behest of the dark lords Lou Lamoriello and Gary Bettman.

    But, whatever the fate that befell Woodguy (1.0), we’re reasonably comfortable with his descendant.

  82. godot10 says:

    Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR:
    If we could fit him under the cap, could we not pluck Miller from Vegas for one of the D prospects and a pick.They need cap space badly.That cap situation got out of control in a hurry!And Miller would look great on a second pair with Nurse.

    Miller is Matt Benning at twice the cost and twice the duration. Between Miller and Russell, that is nearly $8 million dollars of cap space for two 3rd pair D.

    That said, if Russell can be dumped, and Benning is traded for JT Miller, I could get behind trading for Colin MIller if Vegas retained 50%.

  83. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    geowal: Back when a young Woodguy (1.0) was commenting.

    We were so young then.

    The picture of Petrell doing an Ol’ Timey Mandelbaum stretch is incredible.

    What the fuck is he actually doing?

    Look at all the shit around him that he could hurt himself on if he slipped.

    LP: “Yes, I think I’ll do my fucked up stretch next to this heavy metal cart so if I fall backwards it will pierce my spinal cord. I may also hit the milk crate:”

  84. Munny says:

    SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!,

    Oh, he’s not my choice.

  85. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Jordan: Actually Woodguy (1.0) wasn’t young.That’s why there’s a Woodguy v2.0.

    Some posters think that Woodguy (1.0) is off arguing with Rickithebear and DashingSilverFox at the assisted living complex in Barrhead Alberta.

    Others have suggested that after a very late night with Hunter1909 and a 3rd bottle of Glenfiddich, the two men decided to enact the Lowe v. Burke barn fight that never happened.After the firefighters finished dousing the remains of the barn the next day, Woodguy (1.0) was never found.

    The true believers though are convinced they know the truth. They claim that Woodguy (1.0) overcame the boundaries that insulate our individual consciousnesses within the matrix and was actually able to merge with the reality generation code.This is why we have Connor McDavid, and how Leon has become the German Mark Messier.He lives on in the code actively fighting against the taint of Sam Pullock who’s ghost still haunts the and disrupts our reality, most recently at the behest of the dark lords Lou Lamoriello and Gary Bettman.

    But, whatever the fate that befell Woodguy (1.0), we’re reasonably comfortable with his descendant.

    All or some of this may or may not be true.

  86. Nit64 says:

    Jordan: Actually Woodguy (1.0) wasn’t young.That’s why there’s a Woodguy v2.0.

    Some posters think that Woodguy (1.0) is off arguing with Rickithebear and DashingSilverFox at the assisted living complex in Barrhead Alberta.

    Others have suggested that after a very late night with Hunter1909 and a 3rd bottle of Glenfiddich, the two men decided to enact the Lowe v. Burke barn fight that never happened.After the firefighters finished dousing the remains of the barn the next day, Woodguy (1.0) was never found.

    The true believers though are convinced they know the truth. They claim that Woodguy (1.0) overcame the boundaries that insulate our individual consciousnesses within the matrix and was actually able to merge with the reality generation code.This is why we have Connor McDavid, and how Leon has become the German Mark Messier.He lives on in the code actively fighting against the taint of Sam Pullock who’s ghost still haunts the and disrupts our reality, most recently at the behest of the dark lords Lou Lamoriello and Gary Bettman.

    But, whatever the fate that befell Woodguy (1.0), we’re reasonably comfortable with his descendant.

    Handedness… that’s how you tell Woodguy 1.0 from Woodguy 2.0

  87. Munny says:

    Jordan: After the firefighters finished dousing the remains of the barn the next day, Woodguy (1.0) was never found.

    Did they find the Dragon eggs?

  88. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide:
    I think Nygard makes this team. I also think it adds to the chances of signing Alex Chiasson and trading Jujhar Khaira. Not sure how I feel about all that.

    That is a horrible result. As of right now, in my opinion, Khaira >>> Chiasson >>> Nygard.

    Khaira is going to be signing for $1.5M or less I’m sure – this is likely to be a nice value contract if he can even regain the form from one season ago. Last year was derailed a bit by injuries but, for a team that requires value contracts to help balance, to trade very serviceable young cheap players for, very likely, middling returns, makes zero sense to me.

    If Khaira is the sweetener that changes the retention of a Lucic trade from $3M to $1M, then, maybe, but I’m still not sure about it given his likely value contract.

  89. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV1965:
    I guess I’ve been conditioned to accept overpayments from the Oil. I was fully expecting $1.5 mill for two years. This type of contract would have been ugh at best. Not a huge overpayment, but another paper cut. But it sounds like $1 mill for one year, which is absolutely wonderful.

    It will be $925K which is the max he can receive on his ELC. There will likely be some performance bonuses but they do not need to be accounted for unless they vest and, if they do, well, chances are we have ourselves a very nice player and a value contract.

  90. Jordan says:

    Munny: Did they find the Dragon eggs?

    Props.

    The only answer I can provide that will ensure my own safety and that of my family is, “I’m afraid I have no recollection of the event in question.”

  91. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pescador: I always enjoy reading line up projections, so thx for posting yours.
    The Oilers have enough cap space to add a good top 6 winger.
    If KH can add a substantial veteran then the roster could shape up like this:
    Draisaitl– McDavid– Kassian
    Benson – RNH – XXX
    Khaira – Sutter – Puljujarvi
    Nygard – Cave – Gagner
    Marody.
    This is close to where I believe the forward lines will shake out.
    Anyone think that this is worth a look on D?
    Nurse – Klefbom
    Sekera – Larsson
    Jones – Benning
    Perrson

    I’m not sure taking our best transitioner of the puck by pass and moving him to his off-side is a good idea – he will be less effective at moving the puck via the pass. If they go with that pair, I would think Nurse on his off-side would make more sense given he skates the puck out more effectively than passing it.

  92. ArmchairGM says:

    blainer:
    Where we now have a GM who seems to not be afraid of drafting or signing Russians is there anyone here thinking he drafts Podkolzin..

    Other than Turcotte I’m very weary of drafting any of the Americans. Not overly high on Podkolzin either but Holland doesn’t seem the type who worries about his staying in Russia for two years.

    I’ve wondered about this too. It’s so foreign to us to think of drafting a Russian player so high that we tend to not even think about it. It could be a homerun at #8 – think Tarasenko (#16, started draft+3) or Kucherov (#58, draft+3). Last year Kravtsov fell to #9 and he’s looking like a pretty good pick at that number.

  93. ArmchairGM says:

    Pescador:
    ArmchairGM,

    Puljujarvi’s confidence is in need of repair, let’s see where he’s at after he recovers from his surgery.
    I can get behind Puljujarvi on McDavid’s wing, but I would keep Draisaitl at 1LW to help Jesse as much as possible.
    I suggested earlier that the Oilers had enough cap space to add
    a winger like Hoffman for around $5.5 – $6M
    Are you suggesting that cap space would be better spent on 3C & Burakovsky?
    I could see a trade scenario where Puljujarvi is flipped for Burakovsky. Haha

    I’m banking on Burakovsky finding his game with McDavid and being just as good as Hoffman, but for only $2M x 2 (or so). Filppula on a 1-year deal would solidify the bottom-6 a lot I think – we need more than 1 outscoring line and a 3rd line that – at the least – you can trust to keep the other team from scoring at will.

    I’d get a backup and another option at 2RD – names like Pysyk and Miller have been suggested on these pages, I’m not 100% sure who the best target would be but both those names are likely available. A guy like Stralman might work too.

    I could see your trade suggestion happening, but I hope it doesn’t. New coach coming in and Fulppula’s a Finn who could mentor Jesse off-ice.

  94. Wilde says:

    ArmchairGM,

    The trouble is, Podkolzin doesn’t even begin to approach Kucherov/Senko/Kuznetsov/Kravstov in terms of his 16/17/18-year-old Russian junior scoring curve.

    Whenever a guy has scouts raving about speed, skating, handling and creativity, but the player doesn’t score nearly as much as players in the same situations past, either the scouts are wrong about the tools or there’s a stunning lack of sense in the player’s game.

  95. OriginalPouzar says:

    Friedman “reports” that it’s still very likely Tippet – it would have to go off the rails at this point for it not to be.

  96. Bag of Pucks says:

    Jordan,

    Classic post. Very well written!

  97. OriginalPouzar says:

    Avs sign Francouz to a one year (one way) deal for just under $1M.

    He will likely be the back-up to Grubauer.

    Will be interesting to see the performance between him and Koskinen this year now they they will likely both be in the NHL.

    He was excellent in the series against the Condors.

  98. Wilde says:

    I think in general picking Podkolzin is waaaaaaaaay scarier than Caufield.

    Podkolzin, Boldy, Zegras, Broberg, Newhook are the players I’m most afraid of the Oilers selecting.

  99. Wilde says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    He was excellent in the series against the Condors.

    He was nuts. An Avalanche team with a goaltender that can deal with loose defending is very formidable in the Central

  100. YKOil says:

    Nit64: Handedness… that’s how you tell Woodguy 1.0 fromWoodguy 2.0

    Different curve on the stick too I hear.

  101. Wilde says:

    This is the report of Pavel Dorofeyev from Pronman:

    Dorofeyev was one of the best forwards in Russia’s junior league this season, often lighting up scoresheets and playing at the KHL level for long stretches – albeit with not too much effectiveness. Dorofeyev is a talented all-around threat in the offensive zone. He’s creative, he can thread passes into tough lanes and he can play through defenders with his puck skills. Dorofeyev can flash high-end offensive ability but it wasn’t consistent, and, outside of his shot, he lacked a truly dynamic variable when he had the puck. His shot is quick and he can pick a corner if given space. His game can lack urgency. He likes to slow the play down, survey his options and doesn’t often hit the blue line with speed. That said, he has a good top gear and overall skating ability when he does get going. He’s not an overly physical player, but he’s decent defensively and killed penalties at the MHL level.

    Corey has him #36, NHL.com has him at #12 EU – anyone outside the top 10 EU there is a complete wildcard on draft day.

    I’m going to go check again but I think he was borrowed by a KHL team for his games this year; he has no contract and is willing to come over next year afaik.

    The guy is a monster on paper and has just enough cues like lacking ‘urgency’ or ‘pace’ or not being ‘dynamic’ enough to drop.

    Which is code for ‘pick me up in June entirely later than I should be available and make out like fucking bandits’.

  102. stephen sheps says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Jordan,

    Others have suggested that after a very late night with Hunter1909 and a 3rd bottle of Glenfiddich, the two men decided to enact the Lowe v. Burke barn fight that never happened.After the firefighters finished dousing the remains of the barn the next day, Woodguy (1.0) was never found.

    Oh come on now, everyone from those days knows that if Woodguy and Hunter were drinking together, Woodguy would have insisted upon Talisker not Glenfiddich. And if DSF were around, he would have tried to weasel out of paying for the bottle after losing the bet (and then done it anyway, probably twofold since while he was a definite wildcard on the blog, he always pays his debts)

    Barn fight sounds accurate though… 😉

  103. dustrock says:

    Wilde:
    I think in general picking Podkolzin is waaaaaaaaay scarier than Caufield.

    Podkolzin, Boldy, Zegras, Broberg, Newhook are the players I’m most afraid of the Oilers selecting.

    Yeah you and I see this draft very similarly.

    I’d probably go Zegras then Boldy and then “do not draft at 8” for the other 3.

    Broberg is very fast, it is true. That’s about it, and it’s a weak year for D.

    Podkolzin flatters to deceive and the eye test likes him but the math doesn’t, for me at least.

    Newhook is Jost if you’re really lucky.

    Boldy doesn’t seem that much better than a Tomasino or Legare or Lavoie pick to me.

    Zegras has skillz to pay the billz but again not sure I pick him at 8.

  104. RonnieB says:

    ArmchairGM: I’m banking on Burakovsky finding his game with McDavid and being just as good as Hoffman, but for only $2M x 2 (or so). Filppula on a 1-year deal would solidify the bottom-6 a lot I think – we need more than 1 outscoring line and a 3rd line that – at the least – you can trust to keep the other team from scoring at will.

    I’d get a backup and another option at 2RD – names like Pysyk and Miller have been suggested on these pages, I’m not 100% sure who the best target would be but both those names are likely available. A guy like Stralman might work too.

    I could see your trade suggestion happening, but I hope it doesn’t. New coach coming in and Fulppula’s a Finn who could mentor Jesse off-ice.

    Burakovsky’s Qualifying Offer is $3.25 million. Don’t see how you get him for 2 x $2.

  105. Jordan says:

    stephen sheps: Oh come on now, everyone from those days knows that if Woodguy and Hunter were drinking together, Woodguy would have insisted upon Talisker not Glenfiddich. And if DSF were around, he would have tried to weasel out of paying for the bottle after losing the bet (and then done it anyway, probably twofold since while he was a definite wildcard on the blog, he always pays his debts)

    Barn fight sounds accurate though…

    Are you calling me a liar Sheps?! Thems soundin’ like fightin’ words.

    Don’t make me get out my SNES and go to town on you in Street fighter II. Once I remember how to turn it on and what buttons do what, I will **** you like **** ***’s **** *** before ****** ****** *** and **** *** as a *** *****. (please note – not an actual threat – this is in jest for humor’s sake)

    Bag of Pucks:
    Jordan,

    Classic post. Very well written!

    Thanks! This place could use some more Zany. And I know a guy who’s perfect for the job.

    Or Oilers AGM – depends what they thought of the fermented cheese diorama of the Stanley cup parade route.

  106. YKOil says:

    Hughes, Kakko, Byram, Turcotte, Cozens, Dach and Krebs make 7.

    I do like Caufield but after those names I seriously consider having a trade down in my back pocket.

  107. stephen sheps says:

    Jordan: Are you calling me a liar Sheps?! Thems soundin’ like fightin’ words.

    Don’t make me get out my SNES and go to town on you in Street fighter II. Once I remember how to turn it on and what buttons do what, I will **** you like **** ***’s **** *** before ****** ****** *** and **** *** as a *** *****. (please note – not an actual threat – this is in jest for humor’s sake)

    your second classic post of the day!

    (And as long as I can be Guile and we use the cheat code to make it turbo champions edition, I’m game… I think it’s down R up L Y B… don’t ask me how I remember that detail. It’s ingrained into muscle memory at this point)

  108. jtblack says:

    Jordan: Actually Woodguy (1.0) wasn’t young.That’s why there’s a Woodguy v2.0.

    Some posters think that Woodguy (1.0) is off arguing with Rickithebear and DashingSilverFox at the assisted living complex in Barrhead Alberta.

    Others have suggested that after a very late night with Hunter1909 and a 3rd bottle of Glenfiddich, the two men decided to enact the Lowe v. Burke barn fight that never happened.After the firefighters finished dousing the remains of the barn the next day, Woodguy (1.0) was never found.

    The true believers though are convinced they know the truth. They claim that Woodguy (1.0) overcame the boundaries that insulate our individual consciousnesses within the matrix and was actually able to merge with the reality generation code.This is why we have Connor McDavid, and how Leon has become the German Mark Messier.He lives on in the code actively fighting against the taint of Sam Pullock who’s ghost still haunts the and disrupts our reality, most recently at the behest of the dark lords Lou Lamoriello and Gary Bettman.

    But, whatever the fate that befell Woodguy (1.0), we’re reasonably comfortable with his descendant.

    THIS MADE FOR A GOOD FRIDAY AFTERNOON LAUGH. LMAO

  109. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0: All or some of this may or may not be true.

    I am guessing the location, Barrhead AB, might not be correct.

    The rest sounds like 100% truth to me 🙂

  110. Wilde says:

    dustrock,

    Zegras is the best of those, for sure. Agreed on the sentiments for the rest as well.

    Seeing Caufield and others rising and mocked up before us is super encouraging for the chances of a Cozens pick, with Kaliyev almost guaranteed.

    I don’t want to tip my hand re: my content creation schedule but there’s other draft-day maneuvering available as well with these April-May whirlwinds being so strong in the past couple years in terms of reordering the top 10. Pretty much guarantees buyers are going to be very, very interested.

    I’ve been kind of bummed out by Yamamoto’s season, but my tracking stuff is starting to give his season a different kind of shine.

    Particularly zonal transition and primary shot contribution (the amount of shots that he’s on the ice for that he either takes or has the first assist on), where he has the highest single-game shot assist total with ten in the game on February 23rd vs the Tucson Roadrunners.

    The next highest is seven, by Gambardella – so that’s pretty nuts considering Gambardella was one of the best players in the AHL last year.

  111. OriginalPouzar says:

    Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR:
    If we could fit him under the cap, could we not pluck Miller from Vegas for one of the D prospects and a pick.They need cap space badly.That cap situation got out of control in a hurry!And Miller would look great on a second pair with Nurse.

    Taking advantage of teams in cap hell is a great idea, however, unfortunately, the Oilers are in cap hell as well. Not as bad as Vegas for this coming year but, when blogs from other teams contemplate taking advantage of cap strapped teams, the Oilers are likely one of them.

    A little bit of buyer beware on Collin Miller as he’s been a 3rd pairing d-man on Vegas for two years now, playing less per game at 5 on 5 than Engellland.

    He may or may not be an upgrade to Russell at 2RD but, like Russell, would be playing up the depth chart from where he should.

  112. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pescador:
    ArmchairGM,

    Puljujarvi’s confidence is in need of repair, let’s see where he’s at after he recovers from his surgery.

    The thing with confidence is that it can be repaired in an instant.

    Jesse with a primary apple in game one and a goal in game 2 and, boom, confidence is high, just like that.

  113. jimmers2 says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    The very odd thing is that I followed the link and I swear that I remember reading LT’s post (“…makes Eager expendable and pushes Ryan Smyth further towards the door” and the first several comments (“this allows MPS to start in the AHL and this is a good thing”. 7 (?) years is a long time except when it is not.

  114. JJ says:

    LT wrote

    Decades of “the Oilers have re-signed Lennart Petrell” have worn me down, but I have to say this fellow appears to be from a different aisle than the normal spring signing.

    ——-

    I have a soft spot for Petrell and fourth liners in general, especially with his SHorkov Twitter adventures. I remember that one game he scored and I was so happy for him I almost fell off the couch. OMG those were dark Oiler times.

    Remember when Tambo was so proud that he signed Jerred Smithson. …. I need a drink.

  115. OriginalPouzar says:

    To be totally accurate, he never signed Smithson but traded a mid-round pick for him, I believe.

    He did score more goals in his 10 Oiler games than Tobias Rieder did this past season.

  116. Wilde says:

    Does anyone know if it’s possible to buy the Storm’s full season and go back to watch those games, or is OHL live just for livestreaming? I want to cap a ridiculous amount of Samorukov video and do a Benson/Jones type player profile on him but that requires more than just highlights.

    I’ve emailed their support but haven’t gotten anything back.

  117. SwedishPoster says:

    As promised here goes my thoughts on this year in swedish draftees.

    Let’s start off with the D.

    The biggest ticket this year is ofc Philip Broberg, 6’3 LHD who can absolutely fly. Skating is the first thing that pops out when you see him, not just amazing top speed but his acceleration is great both from standstill but also how he goes from 4th to 5th gear, he walks the line well and has great mobility in all directions. Against his peers coast to coast adventures are as common as a Gene pun. More interesting is to see him against grown ups in the second swedish tier, Allsvenskan, as he can’t just skate past guys at will at that level. There you notice that he actually has a pretty good grasp where he should be defensively, breaks up plays, good gaps and moves the puck north not only by skating it up but he actually has a good first pass. As with most swedish D, in particular guys like Broberg who enters the mens ranks at an early age he’s not very physical but he’s pretty good at getting the puck from players either by shielding them off the puck or pokechecks. His shot is ok but not great, wellplaced wrister but needs more oomph to beat NHL goalies, with how explosive his skating is I think the chance he improves in that area is fairly good. He’s got good puckhandling, not a dangler but controls the puck well at top speed, can make moves around players at high speed with the puck. He’s from the Lidström school of D where you don’t overhandle the puck once it’s under control on your stick and instead wait until you have to move past guys and make dekes to start messing about with the puck. His passing is fine, he moves the puck well technichally both forehand and backhand, as I mentioned he’s got a solid first pass.

    Now the big talking point on Broberg and the thing that has people questioning him as an NHLer and thinking he’s one of the most likely players to bust amongst the top picks is his hockey IQ. I personally don’t think it’s a big issue, not elite in any way but not bad either, he knows his way around the ice, reads and reacts well. Where I do think it stems from is that he doesn’t see the ice all that well offensively. Quite often you see him having those Darnell Nurse moments where he skates the puck into to the offensive zone and then doesn’t know what to do with it so he just keeps skating deeper into the zone, against his peers his skating is so outstanding that he usually can just take it to the net and create a scoring chance, but against tougher competition he often either ends up in the corner or just throws a wrister on net. Defensively and in other areas of the game his awareness is quite good though so I don’t think it’s about a severe lack of hockey smarts. To my eye it looks like a lack of natural offensive instincts more than anything and that’s what might keep him from being a proper #1 D. There is one small caveat with regards to him lacking offensive instincts though. He’s a guy who’s development kind of exploded the last season and a half, he was a good player in his age group before, made the national teams and so on but something drastic happened with his trajectory once he moved from Örebro to AIK to make him the top name of the group. So what does this have to do with offensive instincts? Familiarity. Going from being a good player to a guy who can suddenly blow up the ice at will to create opportunities is a different situation and one he might need to adapt to in order to find his offensive groove. But with that burst of development you suddenly find yourself playing against full grown pros for the first time in your life and with that comes a whole new set of things to adapt to and providing offense is usually not at the top of the list for a 17 year old in a pro league. If there’s any truth to this theory there might be untapped potential offensively and then you have a guy with pretty much the whole toolkit to be a #1D. That’s an if though. However as we’ve seen with Darnell this past season you can still be productive with limited offensive vision and instincts if your skating and puckhandling is good enough to move the puck up ice effectively. With that in mind I’d argue the risk he’s a bust is actually miniscule and instead he’s one of the safest picks in the draft. With his insane skating and ability to play defense I just don’t see how he won’t make it as a solid NHL D and even without an offensive uptick I think his upside is a #2 D.
    He’ll join our very own Filip Berglund in Skellefteå in the SHL next season, good spot to develop as a D though the competition for ice time will be tough but at the same there’s a #1LHD spot there for the taking, I assume they’ll loan him back to his former club if he can’t make the top 6. Wouldn’t surprise me one bit if he ended up alongside Berglund tbh, good fit stylewise. Philip and Filip.

    Big wall of text already and this is just one player, don’t worry I’ll be more concise as we move along, but he is the biggest gun this year whilst also being the most divisive so I thought I’d go a bit deeper. I was more of a sceptic to start the year, especially when he had a bit of rough patch mid-season in allsvenskan, but after watching him more and seeing his game develop over the year I’m a fan.

    Next up is Victor Söderström, 5’11 RHD playing for Brynäs in the SHL. Had a very strong season for a 17 year old in the SHL, playing top 4 minutes and doing a good job with it. Like Broberg a great skater but in a different way, not nearly as explosive and lacks that crazy overdrive top speed, instead he just smoothly floats round the ice with what looks like zero effort in either direction. Silky hands and a very clever passing game adds to the smoothness of his style. He’s been pegged as the cerebral counterpart to Broberg’s physical tools and he is clearly a smart player, positioning, reads, decisionmaking and defensive awareness are strengths but I actually like Broberg’s work in the defensive zone better as he takes charge more and controls the ice better, Söderström can be a bit docile and just let the play come to him, which is good at times but also means he gives up too much real estate I’m not claiming he doesn’t work hard or battles, just that he tends to opt for staying in a good position over gaining possession a bit much. Makes him look smart and mistake free but isn’t always the best option. Hopefully that changes when he’s more comfortable at the pro level.
    Offensively he has all the tools to be a good offensive D man; skating, hands, vision and a pretty good shot too but despite this he doesn’t feel like nearly enough of a threat once in the offensive zone, my take is that it’s a lack of creativity and again that he doesn’t take charge as much as you’d like, won’t take chances and if you don’t it’s hard to be a consistent threat offensively. Sure, he’s been a kid against men this year but this theme has continued when up against his peers. The skillset is there though. Kind of reminds me of a righty Jonas Brodin in the sense that you hoped for him to add some offense to his game because he had the skills for it, didn’t really happen with Brodin though, let’s see if Söderstrom can do it, I do think his mitts and shot are better than Brodin as a prospect. Brodin’s defensive game was crazy advanced for his age though and Söderström isn’t at that level yet. Söderström needs to get stronger physically but is a pretty sure bet for top 4 duty once fully grown I’d say, how high he’ll fly depends on how much stronger he can get and if his skills can translate into actual offense to make him a top guy or if he’s just a solid puck distributor who is strong in his own end and complements a more alpha D partner well, kinda like Brodin. Pretty complete player other than size as far as tools go and a lot of very good attributes but maybe not that gamebreaking standout skill at this point.

    On to Tobias Björnfot, 6’0 LHD from Djurgården, spent the majority of the year with the U20 team but got into a few SHL games with little ice time and no points. Björnfot doesn’t have the skating of the other two but still a good skater, fine mobility in all directions, not always superfluid when he changes direction or pivots though. Two way guy but I think he will lean towards the more defensive side in the bigs. Good passer, ok puckhandling but no dazzling stuff, pretty good shot, very poised, very very smart, mature game. Kinda reminds me of Sekera. I was really high on him a year ago but he didn’t take that big step forward I sort of waited for, hopefully just a little plateau before the big breakout and started to heat up late in the season. His name means ”Bear foot” which is awesome and I want the Oilers to pick him just so we can form a Bear-Bearfoot pairing. Solid pick in the second round I’d say though there’s some hype after the U18 that could send him upwards. Imo he benefits a lot from his mature game in those tournaments but smartness can certainly take you places.

    Next up is overager Mattias Norlinder, 6’0 LHD from MODO, Peter Forsberg’s old club playing in Allsvenskan nowadays, he’s an april 2000 birthday who came on like a freight train during the second half of the season. Started the season with the U20 team finished it as one of the best D on the men’s team. Great skater, powerful shot, nice vision. When I saw him late in the year he kinda looked like OEL out there, lofty comparison and unlikely to reach those heights but I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up surpassing a lot of the more lauded D in this draft when all is said and done. He’s on one hell of an upward trajectory. With his set of skills there’s some serious upside here. I’ve seen him in the bottom rounds in a lot of mocks but wouldn’t be all that surprised if one of the teams with trusted scouts in Sweden grabs him a lot sooner. I don’t think it’s a bad pick late in the second round.

    Albert Johansson, yet another 6’0 LHD, yet another two way guy but his strength is defensively, skates well, moves the puck well, cerebral not physical, your typical swedish D I guess. Plays for Färjestad where his dad is a legend more or less, spent almost the whole year with the U20 team. Nice midround pick imo.

    Simon Lundmark, 6’2 RHD, a bit forgotten in the draft talk but played 15 games for Linköping in the SHL this season and showed well, his standout skill is puckmoving, a very nice first pass, handles the puck well and is good skater so can rush the puck if there are no pass options. Good power but so so accuracy on his shot.

    These guys are the big dogs on D this year I’d say, for the later rounds I like Albert Lyckåsen 5’11 great skater with nice vision, will take a while but has the skillset to make it far. Alfred Barklund 6’2 LHD, defensive guy with some nasty to him, ok passing game and skating, ongshot type of guy but I like him. Samuel Sjölund, 6’1 LHD, phyiscally immature guy with a nice skillset, skates well, soft hands.

    So that was it for the D, might have missed someone but I think these are the most interesting names. Big wall of text so I’ll probably post the forwards in a day or two.

  118. Nit64 says:

    Looks like we’re into the Memorial Day weekend with Tippet. Seattle paper bit on the Journal article and tried to get a Seattle team comment. Odds on Tippet following McCrimmon and getting a deal with Seattle out of this?

  119. judgedrude says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Decades of “the Oilers have re-signed Lennart Petrell” have worn me down, but I have to say this fellow appears to be from a different aisle than the normal spring signing.

    Reminds me of one of my favourite LT post titles of all time:

    https://lowetide.ca/2012/06/19/oilers-sign-petrell-confuse-thousands/

    Wasn’t it Petrell in this video that got him signed to the Oilers?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xy_HIKa_DUA

  120. JJ says:

    JJ says:
    May 24, 2019 at 3:37 pm

    LT wrote

    Decades of “the Oilers have re-signed Lennart Petrell” have worn me down, but I have to say this fellow appears to be from a different aisle than the normal spring signing.

    ——-

    I have a soft spot for Petrell and fourth liners in general, especially with his SHorkov Twitter adventures. I remember that one game he scored and I was so happy for him I almost fell off the couch. OMG those were dark Oiler times.

    Remember when Tambo was so proud that he signed Jerred Smithson. …. I need a drink.

    —————————————–

    OriginalPouzar says:
    May 24, 2019 at 3:43 pm

    To be totally accurate, he never signed Smithson but traded a mid-round pick for him, I believe.

    He did score more goals in his 10 Oiler games than Tobias Rieder did this past season.

    —————————–

    I stand corrected. I should have written acquired, no signed. Good catch.

    Your comparison of Smithson to Tobias Rieder makes me think you are a “glass half full kind of fan”.

    Remember when Chia traded a perfectly good 3C in Strome for a guy at the end of his career who could not score to save his life. Then LT had to add find “a perfectly good 3C” onto the GM’s to do list.

    I am going have that drink now.

  121. OriginalPouzar says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Guelph and Rouyn-Noranda tonight – quite excited for this one – winner to take on host Halifax in the Championship on Sunday.

    Its time – Go Guelph!

  122. OriginalPouzar says:

    Nit64:
    Looks like we’re into the Memorial Day weekend with Tippet. Seattle paper bit on the Journal article and tried to get a Seattle team comment.Odds on Tippet following McCrimmon and getting a deal with Seattle out of this?

    Given Friedman’s “report”, I’m going to go with 500:1

  123. Oil2Oilers says:

    Pescador: I always enjoy reading line up projections, so thx for posting yours.
    The Oilers have enough cap space to add a good top 6 winger.
    If KH can add a substantial veteran then the roster could shape up like this:
    Draisaitl– McDavid– Kassian
    Benson – RNH – XXX
    Khaira – Sutter – Puljujarvi
    Nygard – Cave – Gagner
    Marody.
    This is close to where I believe the forward lines will shake out.
    Anyone think that this is worth a look on D?
    Nurse – Klefbom
    Sekera – Larsson
    Jones – Benning
    Perrson

    I would like to see these defensive pairs trialed for a few games they are interesting

  124. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wow, Guelph dominates the first 3 minutes – there was literally zero seconds of possession against. A bad high stick PIM is taken in the neutral zone by the captain but, no worries, exceptional PK, zero possession time until a broken play leads to a goal – a rush is broken up but the puck goes directly to a trailer with, essentially, an empty net.

    Tough luck for Guelph!

  125. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ratcliffe makes up for his bad PIM by burying a 2 on 1 chance a minute after falling behind!

  126. OriginalPouzar says:

    Nygrad signing made official by the Oilers.

    No details except confirmed ELC (which we knew – it was mandated) which means it’ll be $925K max – will be interesting to see what performance bonuses are included.

  127. OriginalPouzar says:

    Durzi gives the puck away behind his net twice within 3 seconds and Sammy gets a minus with zero culpability.

  128. OriginalPouzar says:

    Samorukov just so good defending the rush – standing up at the blue-line and just eliminating rushes – 3 times so far in the first.

  129. OriginalPouzar says:

    Samorukov throwing hits in the offensive zone now as well – causing a turnover – solid hit as well.

  130. digger50 says:

    ArmchairGM: I’d like to see something like this:

    Burakovsky – McDavid – Puljujarvi
    Benson – Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl
    Lucic – Fulppula – Gagner
    Gambardella – Khaira – Kassian

    … but Nygard throws a wrench in there somewhat. I imagine he’ll be a 3rd liner if he makes the team. Is it possible to trade Lucic?

    I think it is possible, in which case your line up looks even better.

  131. digger50 says:

    I think the Tippet conversation is about who stay/goes with the assistant coaches.

  132. matt says:

    Re the Calgary and Boston departments, it’d be worth it to bug Calgary’s scouting shop left right and centre.

  133. matt says:

    Lowetide:
    I think Nygard makes this team. I also think it adds to the chances of signing Alex Chiasson and trading Jujhar Khaira. Not sure how I feel about all that.

    Trading Khaira as sweetener?

  134. hunter1909 says:

    DeathMarch™ Update

    The entries have been duly computerized. A comprehensive winners and close also rans list is pending and will be released asap in the next 72 hours.

    With a paltry 79 point finish the 2018-9 Oilers managed to disappoint everyone yet again!

    It was touching to read so many 95-99 point predictions – you can almost feel the cautious optimism you know who you are so let’s leave it at that.

  135. hunter1909 says:

    PS: btw, how many regular season goals DID Yakupov score in the KHL this past season?

    I’m afraid nothing can move forward until this is cleared up.

    the DeathMarch™ team.

  136. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oil2Oilers: I would like to see these defensive pairs trialed for a few games they are interesting

    I think, if Nurse and Klef are going to play together, then Nurse should play the right side. Its much tougher to transition the puck via pass when playing the off-side and they can’t have Klef being made less effective. Given Nurse is a guy that transitions via the skate more effectively than the pass, he may not see the same drop in effectiveness that I expect Klef would.

  137. OriginalPouzar says:

    digger50:
    I think the Tippet conversation is about who stay/goes with the assistant coaches.

    Given all the assistants have been permission to speak with other teams, I would think Tippet would essentially have full autonomy on the assistants – although, even though Holland is OK with all of the incumbents being replaced maybe he has a specific person he wants on the staff – hope not, should be the head coach’s call.

  138. jtblack says:

    hunter1909:
    PS: btw, how many regular season goals DID Yakupov score in the KHL this past season?

    I’m afraid nothing can move forward until this is cleared up.

    the DeathMarch™ team.

    HE SCORED 23 GOALS

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=130572

  139. Nit64 says:

    hunter1909:
    PS: btw, how many regular season goals DID Yakupov score in the KHL this past season?

    I’m afraid nothing can move forward until this is cleared up.

    the DeathMarch™ team.

    HUNTER1909 says:
    September 11, 2018 at 12:31 pm
    Oh geez I almost forgot:

    Hunter1909 Death March Tie Breaker:

    Guess how many goals Yaks scores in Russia this season.

    Regular Season = 23

    https://en.khl.ru/players/16391/

  140. OriginalPouzar says:

    Samorukov will pick up a 2nd minutes with zero culpability – own zone faceoff, he’s the outside d-man, faceoff is lost and the puck is in the net within a second.

  141. geowal says:

    Samorukov with a big hit

  142. OriginalPouzar says:

    and, again, Sammy lays out an opponent trying to carry the puck in to the Guelph zone on a one on one (most times on a 2 on 2).

  143. geowal says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    and, again, Sammy lays out an opponent trying to carry the puck in to the Guelph zone on a one on one (most times on a 2 on 2).

    I should leave the play by play to the expert 😉

  144. Oil2Oilers says:

    I love Samorukov’s standup at the blue line and blow someone up play. Going off of swedish poster’s review of Nygard and his pension for getting blown up in this way the Oilers would be wise to keep them on the same team is scrimmages this fall.

  145. Oil2Oilers says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    and, again, Sammy lays out an opponent trying to carry the puck in to the Guelph zone on a one on one (most times on a 2 on 2).

    This might not be a wise modern hockey play but damn it riles my blood. It is entertaining as all hell to me.

  146. Glovjuice says:

    Alpine: They’re from different countries?

    Hello, knock, knock on head… Mcfly ?

  147. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oil2Oilers: This might not be a wise modern hockey play but damn it riles my blood. It is entertaining as all hell to me.

    I don’t agree – he won’t be able to lay the body on every opponent coming down off the rush but, absolutely, stepping up to aggressively defend the blue line and zone entries is a very important skill. He’ll have to pick his spots at the pro level regarding when to step up and how aggressively but he shows a skill at it including impressive timing.

  148. godot10 says:

    hunter1909:
    PS: btw, how many regular season goals DID Yakupov score in the KHL this past season?

    I’m afraid nothing can move forward until this is cleared up.

    the DeathMarch™ team.

    23
    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=130572

  149. godot10 says:

    Oil2Oilers:
    I love Samorukov’s standup at the blue line and blow someone up play. Going off of swedish poster’s review of Nygard and his pension for getting blown up in this way the Oilers would be wise to keep them on the same team is scrimmages this fall.

    Samorukov…the anti-Russell.

  150. Munny says:

    godot10: Samorukov…the anti-Russell.

    He definitely is, at least at this level.

    Not looking good for the Storm now.

  151. OriginalPouzar says:

    Guelph really having trouble with the Huskie’s forecheck in the third and its led to two goals.

    Guelph down by two with 6 min to go – not looking great as the momentum is all Huskies right now.

  152. Munny says:

    Samo has pinched far more this game than in the others. Of course, now he has to.

  153. OriginalPouzar says:

    Toropchenko with a bad giveaway at the blueline and Samorukov has to haul down Dobson on a clear cut breakaway – penalty shot awarded (the right call) – he was stopped though.

    Guelph still down two with only 3 min to go.

  154. Munny says:

    Durzi prevents a sure goal then Samo is forced to hook Dobson on the next rush, who thankfully is stopped on the penalty shot.

  155. Munny says:

    Life. But need another goal in a 1:13 stretch.

  156. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wow – Guelph with about 2 min of pressure – like 6 or so blocked shots – they finally score on a beautiful passing play. No point for Samorukov (he’d get the 3rd assist, keeping it in at the blueline) but he was material in the 90-120 seconds of pressure.

    Still a bit of time left – 1:13.

  157. Munny says:

    Every goal gets reviewed?

    Well they completely missed the goalie interference on the first Rouyn goal if that’s the case.

  158. blainer says:

    SwedishPoster,

    Nice read SP.. I am kind of curious as to how you would compare Soderstrom to Boqvist. I think Boqvist is going to be a great pick for the Hawks and would have loved that pick for us as much or even more than Bouchard. Boqvist just looks like a great skater to my eye.

    Also .. do you think either Broberg and or Soderstrom end up ahead of any the Americans?

    There are teams in the top seven to ten that I believe may draft a D.

  159. Munny says:

    Done. Great game. Incredible pace.

  160. OriginalPouzar says:

    Samorukov with a blast blocked in the dying seconds and it goes the other way for an empty netter and Guelph’s season is over.

    Congrats to Samorukov on just a great season.

  161. Munny says:

    SwedishPoster,

    This is so awesome. Thank you. Now go rest your typing finger lol.

    It almost seems like the Klefbom-Brodin, Tools vs Brains debate in their year, except this time Tools has the edge.

  162. Lowetide says:

    Awesome stuff from Swedish Poster. I thank you!

  163. Reja says:

    Pescador: What’s his contract ask?
    2 years @ $1.75M that’s my offer.

    I predicted 1.75 on two years 1.5 on three probably off by 1/4 mil on both.

  164. Reja says:

    matt: Trading Khaira as sweetener?

    I think either Khaira Kassian or Lucic one of them will be gone.

  165. OriginalPouzar says:

    Samorukov didn’t have any points tonight but was named second star – that’s how good he can be defensively and defending the rush.

  166. v4ance says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Just curious OP, I know you’ve mentioned Samorukov’s ability to disrupt plays at the blue line. Are we talking a less nasty Niklas Kronwall?

  167. OriginalPouzar says:

    Yes, pretty much.

    When the opposition is on an even rush (2 on 2, 1 on 1) and the puck carrier is coming down his side, he is very adept at breaking up the rush and not giving up the blueline/zone – whether they try and take him wide or cut to the middle. Sometimes he steps up for the big hit, sometimes its an angle off, etc.

    Of course, at the next level he won’t be able to be aggressive on every play and will need to pick his spots but its a definite skill of his.

  168. Pescador says:

    Reja: I predicted 1.75 on two years 1.5 on three probably off by 1/4 mil on both.

    Right, also not hard to imagine that another team hungry for scoring offers north of $2.
    Understandable but I think Holland will spend cap dollars elsewhere

  169. Glovjuice says:

    OriginalPouzar: The thing with confidence is that it can be repaired in an instant.

    Jesse with a primary apple in game one and a goal in game 2 and, boom, confidence is high, just like that.

    Are you serious

  170. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    Glovjuice: Are you serious

    Juice, you have to understand that it’s a matter of perspective. In OP’s world, this is absolute truth. In other worlds … maybe not so much.

    I forgot to mention, I really like OP’s world. I just can’t seem to figure out how to get there from here.

  171. SwedishPoster says:

    blainer:
    SwedishPoster,

    Nice read SP.. I am kind of curious as to how you would compare Soderstrom to Boqvist. I think Boqvist is going to be a great pick for the Hawks and would have loved that pick for us as much or even more than Bouchard.Boqvist just looks like a great skater to my eye.

    Also ..do you think either Broberg and or Soderstrom end up ahead of any the Americans?

    There are teams in the top seven to ten that I believe may draft a D.

    Söderström is ahead of Boqvist defensively but Boqvist is clearly ahead offensively, better shot, better vision, better offensive reads, much more creative. I think Boqvist is the better straight line skater but other than that their skating is kind of similar.

    I think a team might like Broberg enough to pick him top 10, lots of upside and also has that je ne sais quoi, star quality, it factor to him when he’s on. Depends on need ofc and how teams value the group behind Hughes and Turcotte on the USNTDP. If they think those two make guys look better than they are.

    Söderström I could see drop a bit and be a real value pick due to him being the bridesmaid on a lot of lists, “we like him, we don’t love him, this guy on the other hand…” Pure speculation om my part, he’s a rhd after all, but I think it could happen. Was just ok at the U18s and ended up with a concussion so not a great last impression on the scouts either.

  172. Pescador says:

    Glovjuice: Are you serious

    he’s confident that much is for sure

  173. Pescador says:

    Decidedly Skeptical Fan: Juice, you have to understand that it’s a matter of perspective. In OP’s world, this is absolute truth. In other worlds … maybe not so much.

    I forgot to mention, I really like OP’s world. I just can’t seem to figure out how to get there from here.

    Easy;
    Teach yourself how to become OCD
    Go to law school
    Give up all your chemical & liquid vices
    Blast your quads & lates on the regular
    See the Oilers world through rose colored glasses
    Sleep between 3 -3 1/2 hours per night
    Blog blog blog and then blog some more
    No offense OP but that seems rather odious

  174. oilersfan says:

    Swedish poster.

    Thanks for all your insight.

    How do you think Joel Person will do here? Is he good enough to be a third pairing D?

    Thanks

  175. SwedishPoster says:

    oilersfan:
    Swedish poster.

    Thanks for all your insight.

    How do you think Joel Person will do here? Is he good enough to be a third pairing D?

    Thanks

    I think there’s a pretty good chance he could play third pairing right off the bat, it comes down to his ability to defend at the NHL level, he gets outmuscled quite easily so he needs to be smart when defending and then the unknown factor is ofc how his game translates, the smaller ice, the different style, higher pace of the NHL, will he get enough rope to play his own game which means taking some risk with the puck. The skills are there though; hands, vision, skating, shot.

    He’s far from a lock and he could very well end up in the AHL but he should be in the mix and there’s a better than zero chance he ends up beyond third pair.

  176. pts2pndr says:

    blainer:
    Where we now have a GM who seems to not be afraid of drafting or signing Russians is there anyone here thinking he drafts Podkolzin..

    Other than Turcotte I’m very weary of drafting any of the Americans. Not overly high on Podkolzin either butHolland doesn’t seem the type who worries about his staying in Russia for two years.

    As crazy as it may sound I would have no problem drafting another RT shot D in Soderstrom.

    Second round.

  177. Reja says:

    Pescador: he’s confident that much is for sure

    If you don’t think confidence and opportunity is a thing especially for a newbie breaking in so be it.

  178. Reja says:

    Pescador: Right, also not hard to imagine that another team hungry for scoring offers north of $2.
    Understandable but I think Holland will spend cap dollars elsewhere

    What happens if Holland gets a call on the red phone from Lokomotiv to trade the 8th pic along with no retention on Lucic for a half-assed winger in the east.

  179. OriginalPouzar says:

    Glovjuice: Are you serious

    Decidedly Skeptical Fan: Juice, you have to understand that it’s a matter of perspective. In OP’s world, this is absolute truth. In other worlds … maybe not so much.

    I forgot to mention, I really like OP’s world. I just can’t seem to figure out how to get there from here.

    Seriously? If JP scores two goal in a game early in the season you don’t think his offensive confidence is as high as its ever been in the NHL? Of course it is.

  180. OriginalPouzar says:

    Canada’s semifinal game at the Worlds is at noon today I believe, well, 1215.

  181. jp says:

    SwedishPoster,

    Really awesome, thank you.

  182. Glovjuice says:

    My thread leadership is stunningly good.

  183. OriginalPouzar says:

    Hmmm, the Canada game might be at 11:15 (mountain), not 12:15.

  184. Chris says:

    Anyone else having trouble with the site this morning? Once I hit the home button, it logs me off and I can’t load the new post. Suggestions?

  185. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Pescador,

    – If you don’t like what he writes you don’t have to reply. You come across as mean spirited when you personalize attacks on a poster. That’s not right.

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