New Opportunity

by Lowetide

NHL teams don’t like to miss with early draft picks. Kevin Prendergast used to say his Oilers had to nail it with the first round pick (they did not) and then find quality in later rounds (they found quite a bit) when he was scouting director.

From the player side, no matter where you’re chosen, that NHL contract is everything. Not every player can be signed, but any pick inside the top 100 who doesn’t get signed before the deadline (two years after the draft, June 1) has either experienced a management change or had some issues along the way.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group. INSANE OFFER IS HERE!

  • New Lowetide: Does Oilers’ signing of Joakim Nygard signal a measured approach to summer 2019?
  • Lowetide: Dave Tippett’s roster deployment in Arizona and what it might mean for the Oilers
  • Jonathan Willis: Why Ken Holland’s worst years in Detroit tell us the most about how he’ll fare in Edmonton
  • Jonathan Willis: Three offseason scenarios and how each one would affect the Oilers salary cap
  • Lowetide: Examining the Oilers’ goaltending options in free agency.
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s Oilers could go the high octane procurement route but will need a driver
  • Lowetide: How much can Connor Brown help the Oilers?
  • Lowetide: Dmitri Samorukov is off to the Memorial Cup and is the Oilers’ fastest rising prospect
  • Jonathan Willis: Craig MacTavish leaves the Oilers, signalling the first major front office change under Ken Holland
  • Lowetide: What kind of coach should Ken Holland hire for the Oilers?
  • Jonathan Willis: Every Oilers AHL prospect, rated by how close they are to the NHL
  • Jonathan Willis: A resurgent Andrej Sekera gives the Oilers much-needed defensive options
  • Lowetide: Is Joe Gambardella destined to become the Oilers’ next Fernando Pisani?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Protector, supporter, confidant: Connor McDavid’s mom, Kelly, is his off-ice rock through good times and bad
  • Lowetide: An offseason plan for Ken Holland to remodel the Oilers roster.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland steadfast that buck stops with him as new Oilers GM.
  • Lowetide: How will Ken Holland proceed in Year 1 as Oilers general manager?
  • Jonathan Willis: What does the arrival of Ken Holland mean for the Oilers coaching search?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Prioritizing the roster issues that await Ken Holland in Edmonton.
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s procurement list for his rumored move to Edmonton will include front-office personnel
  • Jonathan Willis: A Milan Lucic trade is at the top of the to-do list for the Oilers’ next GM.

Last season there were several draft picks who didn’t get signed before June 1. A few of them were either drafted or signed elsewhere and had success. List is here.

L Adam Mascherin was drafted No. 100 by Dallas on re-entry, and had a solid AHL debut (75, 18-26-44). He was No. 6 in Texas Stars scoring.

RD Jordan Sambrook didn’t sign with Detroit and went back to junior and delivered a quality season. He’s 6.03, 205, turned 21 in April. He can defend and has a good shot.

2019

R Kyle Olson is a smaller winger, very skilled and a good skater. He was injured last season but finished this one 62, 21-49-70 with Tri-City (WHL).

LD Noel Hoefenmayer is a player worth procuring. I had him No. 40 on my list in 2017 (here) due to his range of skills and he posted 68, 16-46-62 for Ottawa 67’s.

RC Liam Hawell is an “excellent combination of size and speed” according to HockeyProspect.com in his draft year. Big man led the Guelph Storm to the Memorial Cup semi’s and is a teammate of Dmitri Samorukov. He’s a good prospect, my guess is he gets signed this week.

50-MAN AND FREE AGENTS (47)

While we’re waiting for something to happen, there is much to discuss. Edmonton has several rfa’s and ufa’s to make a decision on, plus three college men who may or may not be of interest.

Let’s start in goal. I think we’re established that Holland is going to sign a goalie, and this blog has arrived at Brian Elliott as the addition. So, a Koskinen-Elliott tandem begins the year in Edmonton, with (say) Shane Starrett and Stuart Skinner in Bakersfield. Oilers trade Dylan Wells (Lightning have an opening) this summer, Rodrigue goes to junior. Maybe some room for Hayden Hawkey, who has the coolest name in hawkey history.

On left defense, I believe Holland will retain the entire group listed above, although one of them may cross over (more in a minute). If a forward of note comes available, and the general manager needs $3 million, a Sekera buyout or trade becomes possible.

On right defense, we could see change. One of Adam Larsson or Kris Russell may be in play, depending on who might be available in trade. Matt Benning could also be dealt but it would be a different kind of trade. Ryan Mantha’s deal gets voided (unless we hear good news, and that would be fabulous) and Edmonton doesn’t pick up the option on Robin Norell. For our purposes, all but Mantha and Norell remain as above, meaning Vincent Desharnais doesn’t get a contract before August 15.

Center is going to be tough, because Edmonton needs at least one, maybe two men and Kyle Brodziak may be in the minors. I’ll say both Vesel and Larkin don’t get signed and will further suggest we see a RHC signed around July 7. Maybe Jean-Sebastian Dea, or maybe the team trades Kris Russell for Riley Nash. I don’t think Joey Dudek gets a deal.

Left Wing has already received a little help with Nygard, I expect he’ll be part of the rotation inside the bottom lines with Khaira and Lucic. 3LW and 4LW play 162 games, maybe they get 54 games each. Leon Draisaitl gets the No. 1 job alongside McDavid, looks like Benson has a clear shot at the No. 2 line with Nuge right now. Khaira and Gambardella get contracts. One thing we can assume? Rieder doesn’t return.

Right Wing should see some real movement, I’m going to guess Puljujarvi and Rattie get contracts (JP might start on IR). Gagner is an interesting buyout option but I think he stays. He might be a key to the power play.

ALTERED 50-MAN LIST (42)

I think we can cobble together a plan for Ken Holland this summer with the small moves here. I’ve added Elliot, haven’t touched the defense or forwards. If there’s a deal that allows Edmonton to bring in a Nik Ehlers, Kasperi Kapanen or Jonathan Huberdeau, then buying out someone may be necessary. Failing that, I think adding some skill forwards in free agency is a prudent way forward. The roster might look like this:

Leon Draisaitl—Connor McDavid—Zack Kassian

Tyler Benson—RNH—Brett Connolly

Jujhar Khaira—Cooper Marody—Joonas Donskoi

Joakim Nygard—Riley Nash—Sam Gagner

Milan Lucic—Kyle Brodziak (Jesse Puljujarvi IR)

Oscar Klefbom—Adam Larsson

Darnell Nurse—Matt Benning

Andrej Sekera—Caleb Jones

Brandon Manning

Mikko Koskinen (Brian Elliott)

That’s several free agents added and lord knows if Edmonton can afford that many. I will say that Elliott at $2.5 million seems reasonable, and that Connolly ($3.5 million) and Donskoi ($2.85 million) are reasonably priced (using Matt Cane’s numbers, I think Connolly signs for more if he makes it to free agency). Using those dollars, my roster comes in at about $81.5 million if I’ve remembered everything. The main additions cost $8.85 million, the rest will need to come in depth additions.

I don’t think there’s a No. 2 RHD out there, so my suggestion is ‘committee’ using all hands. Benning gets the first shot above, but Sekera, Jones, Evan Bouchard, Joel Persson and Ethan Bear might all get a shot.

223 comments
0

You may also like

0 0 vote
Article Rating
223 Comments
Newest
Oldest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Ryan

Ryan: One advantage of the login is that it prevents spam.

The downside is that it creates sever load.

While there are some disadvantages of using a comment system like Disqus, one huge advantage is that it takes the load off your server.

I believe it would be an option to solve the current issues until the new site is ready.

Ask Danny.

https://disqus.com/

Or perhaps,

Commento.

https://commento.io/

Ryan

Lowetide: Yes. Plus some other elements.

One advantage of the login is that it prevents spam.

The downside is that it creates sever load.

While there are some disadvantages of using a comment system like Disqus, one huge advantage is that it takes the load off your server.

I believe it would be an option to solve the current issues until the new site is ready.

Ask Danny.

https://disqus.com/

LadiesloveSmid

godot10,

I desperately hope Cave isn’t the 3C.

Maybe 4C

condormcdavis

defmn,

There are no abusive posters here…..

Only differing opinions!

Unless you qualify knowing how many sets Original Pouzar did at 330 am abuse

HT Joe

hunter1909,

Yes, I just shortened the name at some point. I live in Edmonton. 🙂

€√¥£€^$

Lowetide: I changed computers recently and had the same experience. Danny and I have tweaked and cajoled and hammered this old rig, but at this point we’re just waiting for the new site. Years and years of posts and comments have made this a gigantic whale of a site, that’s part of it.

Question: Would it be better if I took away the need to log in? You’d just post and add your name at the end.

Good Morning LT,

I don’t find it so painful to log in as to take away your ability to manage your own website.

This is your livingroom, after all….

Kinger_Oil.redux

Lowetide: Yes. Plus some other elements.

– LT you need to look at yourself in the mirror: it’s your own fault for creating this incredible platform which has resulted in so many people posting for so many years, overwhelming the system!

defmn

Lowetide:

Question: Would it be better if I took away the need to log in? You’d just post and add your name at the end.

Wouldn’t you lose the ability to ban abusive posters if you did that?

OriginalPouzar

CAN/FIN at 12:15 (mountain) today for Gold!

OriginalPouzar

godot10: Sekera, with Nurse playing the right side.

The conversation you responded to started with my suggestion Nurse on the right side but LT would rather fill the 2RD spot with an internal right shot.

hags9k

leadfarmer,

I would like Zucker too, although for what it’s worth I think the rumour had him as part of a Kessel to Minny deal.

OriginalPouzar

Glovjuice: These two haven’t played a lick of hockey, especially OP.

I haven’t?

hags9k

leadfarmer,

OK, but there’s a nicer way to say that.

OriginalPouzar

Reja: They didn’t draft the fully developed .Bouchard for his looks. Won’t be long before he climbs the latter and is QB ing the top 3 PP in the league.

Potentially but he chances are he won’t even be in the NHL to start the season let aloe the top 4.

leadfarmer

Woodguy v2.0: I’m under the impression his NTC doesn’t kick in until July 1

Zucker would be a good addition to the second line and if he’s available for not too much I would rather go that way than spend the same amount of money on nyquist or Connolly

Nuge Mcdavid Kassian
Zucker Drai hope someone steps up

Is at least a good start

leadfarmer

I don’t know if it’s me traveling internationally but your website really sucks LT. I have to log in multiple times and every time I click on a link it logs me out.

godot10

OriginalPouzar:
2RD internally – so that means Benning, Bear, Persson or Bouchard?

Sekera, with Nurse playing the right side.

godot10

Woodguy v2.0: Nelson is a center and this will be his 28 year old year.

Nyquist is a winger and this will be he his 30 year old year.

I can see Nyquist signing for less and less term.

5MM+ though.

A team might blow their brains out, but you’d hope it’s not your team.

JT Miller is 4 years younger than Nyquist with a better track record. His 8-team no trade list kicks in July 1. Go get him Kenny. The clock’s a-ticking.

McDavid and Draisaitl on one line
MIller and Nugent-Hopkins on the 2nd line.
Khaira, Cave, and Puljujarvi on the 3rd line.

hunter1909

Gerta Rauss:
hunter1909,

thanks for the effort Hunter

Thank Woodguy. He shamed me into doing it. For some reason he wasn’t buying my nothing but lies dressed as reality that day last week.

Also, luckily 95% + of fans predicted more points so it was simple to make the list.

Especially those “cautiously optimistic yet tempered with realism” 94-97 range, particularly the 95 point predictions they screamed carefully considered thought lol

Gerta Rauss

hunter1909,

thanks for the effort Hunter

hunter1909

HT Joe:
Hunter… thanks for running the annual Death March. It’s a lot of fun.Also, obviously, thanks Lowetide for enabling this annual contest on your fantastic blog.

Thanks everyone for the congratulations, especially NIT64!!

Did you used to be Heat Treater Joe? Before HT Joe?

hunter1909

HT Joe:
Hunter… thanks for running the annual Death March. It’s a lot of fun.Also, obviously, thanks Lowetide for enabling this annual contest on your fantastic blog.

Thanks everyone for the congratulations, especially NIT64!!

What city are you from?

N64

Glovjuice: These two haven’t played a lick of hockey, especially OP.

Not true. OP was a teammate of Oliver Barrett IV

Glovjuice

who: Good God.
You guys are both right. You are arguing about 2 different things.
A left shot skating down the right wing will be carrying the puck on his forehand, and his forehand will be closer to the middle of the ice. Makes for a better shooting angle in the ozone.
However if he wants to keep the puck AWAY from the middle of the ice, and buy himself an extra second to make a play, he will move the puck towards the boards. That puts it on his backhand.
Hope that ends the arguement for both of you.
You’re welcome.

These two haven’t played a lick of hockey, especially OP.

jp

Jaxon: Yup. Top 10 in the last 177 games at 5v5 scoring. So not getting PP time doesn’t really affect his scoring. And I would guess he’s still at least three years away from reaching his potential.

Nurse’s even strength scoring is impressive for sure.

So who are the other defensemen who are scoring like Nurse at even strength? Nurse has 51 5v5 points over the past 2 seasons, so 25.5 per year. Looking back at NHL D over some years who scored 24-27 5v5 points in a year:

2007-08
Brian Campbell 27 (2nd in NHL)
Mike Green 26
Nik Kronwall 25
Dion Phaneuf 25

2008-09
Shea Weber 27 (lead NHL)
Brian Campbell 26
Brian Rafalski 26
Mike Green 26
Nik Kronwall 26
Sheldon Souray 25
Tom Gilbert 24
Denis Grebeshkov 24 (wow Oilers)

2009-10
Ian White 27 (4th in NHL)
Dan Boyle 26
Tyler Myers 26
Marc Staal 25
Keith Yandle 25
Chris Pronger 24

2010-11
Shea Weber 27 (5th)
John-Michael Liles 26
Alex Pietrangelo 26
Zdeno Chara 25
Brent Burns 25
Dustin Byfuglien 24
Kevin Shattenkirk 24
John Carlson 24

2011-12
Brent Seabrook 25 (7th)
Matt Carle 25
Ryan McDonagh 25
Nick Leddy 24

2013-14
Matt Niskanen 27 (6th)
Brent Seabrook 26
Shea Weber 26
Dustin Byfuglien 26
Jay Bouwmeester 25
Hampus Lindholm 25

2014-15
Drew Doughty 27 (9th)
Shea Weber 25
Jake Muzzin 25
Hampus Lindholm 25
Mike Green 24
Alex Goligoski 24
Nick Leddy 24
Justin Faulk 24
John Klingberg 24

2015-16
Alex Goligoski 27
Roman Josi 27
Kris Letang 25
PK Subban 25
Dimitry Orlov 25
Andrei Markov 24
Mattias Ekholm 24
Colton Parayko 24

FWIW this is a pretty impressive list of players. And many didn’t score like this over 2 consecutive seasons, age 22 and 23.

HT Joe

Hunter… thanks for running the annual Death March. It’s a lot of fun. Also, obviously, thanks Lowetide for enabling this annual contest on your fantastic blog.

Thanks everyone for the congratulations, especially NIT64!!

Wilde

Munny,

OriginalPouzar,

This exchange was something else.

Reja

OriginalPouzar:
2RD internally – so that means Benning, Bear, Persson or Bouchard?

They didn’t draft the fully developed Bouchard for his looks. Won’t be long before he climbs the latter and is QB ing the top 3 PP in the league.

Professor Q

OriginalPouzar:
2RD internally – so that means Benning, Bear, Persson or Bouchard?

Or another we don’t know about yet.

OriginalPouzar

2RD internally – so that means Benning, Bear, Persson or Bouchard?

N64

On to the Finals!

OriginalPouzar

Lowetide: I would keep Klefbom with Larsson and try to find a partner for Nurse internally on that second pair.

Yes, that would be optimal but the org has had a hole at the 2RD spot for years (well, actually, 1RD as Larsson would be a perfect 2RD). If they can get $4M for Russell and can’t fill it reasonably, what do you think of, at least trying:

Klef/Nurse
Sekera/Larsson
Jones (Lagesson)/Benning

I’m generally against d-men on their offside but think this has a chance at working – not optimal, that’s for sure.

Ryan

Lowetide:
HT Joe! Come on down!

42nd place is my personal best!

Woo hoo!

Professor Q

Nit64,

I have a tendency to jinx these things.

I can’t be *too* positive in the open, see.

N64

Professor Q: I’m not sure the Raptors can retake a 10 point deficit again

Again

N64

Common Fan 14:
14/15 1st
16/17 1st (tie)

HT Joe:
15/16 2nd (tie)
17/18 1st

We’re taking Chicago/Pittsburgh alternating dominance here.

Jaxon

OriginalPouzar: Solid post.

Now, if those 30 points are pretty much all at evens, that is substantial – that’s around where he’s been producing the last few years and, I can’t remember if it was Jaxon or WG, but, over the last 3 years, he’s near top 10 among all D in 5 on 5 scoring.

Yup. Top 10 in the last 177 games at 5v5 scoring. So not getting PP time doesn’t really affect his scoring. And I would guess he’s still at least three years away from reaching his potential.

OriginalPouzar

Pescador: Man really?
Ok how bout the only thing the Oil need to decide on between Oscar & Darnell is who play right side & who plays left.
Isn’t that better & why can’t we have nice things?

I am starting to think that, if they can get a clean disposition of Russell and aren’t able to acquire a stop gap in a reasonable transaction, maybe Nurse on the right side is something that could work out.

hunter1909

Pescador: Hey 5th place!
Not too shabby
Nice work HTjoe

Sorry Pescador you predicted 93 points.

You did however place well with the Yakupov sweepstakes with a solid 19 goal prediction.

hunter1909

Hunter1909 Deathmarch™

Unofficial Winners of the 2018-19 Hunter1909DeathMarch™:

1st Place – HT Joe 79 points; 22 Yak goals

2nd Place – Decidedly Skeptical fan 78 points; 23 Yak goals

3rd Place – Barmstrong 78 points; 21 Yak goals

JimmyV1965

YKOil:
silasbengtsson,

The offers for Nyquist will be interesting.I fully expect:

– his agents open will be for $6m per for 6 and
– most teams will walk in with $5m per for 4

Who will bite at $5.5m for 5?And will someone get fancy at $5m per for 6?

Myself, I like Panik if I am shopping in the cheap(er) aisle.Maybe even more than Connolly but I haven’t looked at fancy stats yet.

Also, Turris, has redeemed himself (somewhat) at the Worlds imo, be interesting if Nashville decides to keep him now.

The problem with Nyquist is age and term. I think he gets $6 mill x 6 and he could conceivably hit a wall in year 1. I’d rather have Connolly at $4 mill x 4. Even Eberle could get $6 mill x 6. Geez, I don’t like thinking about UFAs because Connolly is staring to look good now. Maybe I’m overestimating how much these guys get paid.

Pescador

Westchester Oil: Didn’t Burger Baron get shut down a couple times for health code violations?

Yes but if you never knew there was such a thing as a
“Health code”
It’s not technically a violation.

Reja: Flashback alert

Ahh the magic mushroom burger

Pescador

hunter1909:
Hunter1909DeathMarch™ Unofficial Final Standings:

TOP 40

1 HT Joe79 Points(22) Yak Goals
2 Decidedly Skeptical Fan 78 (23)
3 Barmstrong78(21)
4 Just the Stats Man 81(18)
5 Pescador 81 (17)
6 Johnny Skid81(29)
7 Flea 82(12)
7 Slocanoil 82(12)
7 Romulus Apotheosis 82(12)
10 Stephen Sheps 83(19)
________________________________________
10 Godot 10 83(19)
12 Buddy 83(16)
13 O Hell 83(14)
14 Hug the Post 84(16)
15 Coleio_87 84(14)
16 Tex Mex 84(11)
17 JM363 561 84(no Yak info available)
18 Rich M 85(19)
19 Ribs 85(17)
20 719 85(16)
_________________________________________
21 Pretendegrast 86(19)
22 Ladies love Smid 86(16)
23 JT Black 86(10)
24 Lead Farmer 87(23)
25 Younger Oil 87(20)
26 106 and 106 87(15)
27 Elkhorn Boy 87(14)
28 Ewarsaba 87(11)
29 Walter Gretzkys Neighbour 87(11)
30 Dustrock 88(23)
__________________________________________
31 Simba 88(20)
32 Jake 70 88(19)
33 Bob Arctor 88(17)
33 Hungoverman 88(17)
33 Healthy Scratch 88(17)
36 Gret99ZKY 88(14)
37 Van Isle Oil 88(13)
38 Death by Misadventure 88(12)
39 Yeti 69
40 Gerta Rauss 89(22)
_________________________________________
ALSO RANS 41-47

41 Russ99 89(25)
42 Ryan 89(20)
43 DBO 89(18)
44 McSorely33 89(17)
45 Cameron 89(14)
46 Looking for You 89(13)
46 Trencan 89(13)
46 JFRY 89(13)
47 Hudson 89(11)
48 Wood99 90(11)

Any errors or omissions is in no way the responsibility of the deathmarch™ team. Suck it up!

Hey 5th place!
Not too shabby
Nice work HTjoe

Pescador

Lowetide:
There may come a time when the Oilers have to decide between Oscar and Darnell, but this isn’t the time.

Man really?
Ok how bout the only thing the Oil need to decide on between Oscar & Darnell is who play right side & who plays left.
Isn’t that better & why can’t we have nice things?