What’s The Frequency, Kenneth?

by Lowetide

It occurs to me that “Past Ken Holland” could help us out on a current issue causing furrowed brows on this blog. Lately, there’s been a long conversation in regard to Darnell Nurse, as in when to trade him, or if the Oilers should trade him. To a lesser extent, that question is being asked about Adam Larsson, Matt Benning and the rest of the blue this spring. Why? Too many bona fide defensemen. Who knew that would ever be a problem? What does “Past Ken Holland” say about it? Will that match current Ken Holland?

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group. INSANE OFFER IS HERE!

  • New Lowetide: Does Oilers’ signing of Joakim Nygard signal a measured approach to summer 2019?
  • Lowetide: Dave Tippett’s roster deployment in Arizona and what it might mean for the Oilers
  • Jonathan Willis: Why Ken Holland’s worst years in Detroit tell us the most about how he’ll fare in Edmonton
  • Jonathan Willis: Three offseason scenarios and how each one would affect the Oilers salary cap
  • Lowetide: Examining the Oilers’ goaltending options in free agency.
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s Oilers could go the high octane procurement route but will need a driver
  • Lowetide: How much can Connor Brown help the Oilers?
  • Lowetide: Dmitri Samorukov is off to the Memorial Cup and is the Oilers’ fastest rising prospect
  • Jonathan Willis: Craig MacTavish leaves the Oilers, signalling the first major front office change under Ken Holland
  • Lowetide: What kind of coach should Ken Holland hire for the Oilers?
  • Jonathan Willis: Every Oilers AHL prospect, rated by how close they are to the NHL
  • Jonathan Willis: A resurgent Andrej Sekera gives the Oilers much-needed defensive options
  • Lowetide: Is Joe Gambardella destined to become the Oilers’ next Fernando Pisani?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Protector, supporter, confidant: Connor McDavid’s mom, Kelly, is his off-ice rock through good times and bad
  • Lowetide: An offseason plan for Ken Holland to remodel the Oilers roster.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland steadfast that buck stops with him as new Oilers GM.
  • Lowetide: How will Ken Holland proceed in Year 1 as Oilers general manager?
  • Jonathan Willis: What does the arrival of Ken Holland mean for the Oilers coaching search?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Prioritizing the roster issues that await Ken Holland in Edmonton.
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s procurement list for his rumored move to Edmonton will include front-office personnel
  • Jonathan Willis: A Milan Lucic trade is at the top of the to-do list for the Oilers’ next GM.

The year Ken Holland took over as manager of the Detroit Red Wings, it was a bizarre scene. The Detroit Red Wings had just won the Stanley Cup, but about one month before Holland took over tragedy struck (here). Along with the human tragedy, Holland was forced to tweak the roster of the defending SC champions. What did he do?

He rotated Anders Eriksson into the NHL lineup, age 23. Eriksson had a couple of previous cups of coffee, he was about where Caleb Jones and Ethan Bear are today. Holland (and the coaching staff) also relied a little more on Aaron Ward and Jamie Pushor, but the heavy lifting remained with Nick Lidstrom, Viacheslav Fetisov and Larry Murphy (with Bob Rouse also in photo). Why? Who in hell else are you going to ask?

Applying that kind of logic to the current Oilers, what kind of change might we expect over the summer? I think it’s possible, even likely, we see very little change on defense. There is no pressure point beyond moving cap dollars around to add a big name forward, and that may not be out there.

Oscar Klefbom, Adam Larsson and Darnell Nurse are the center cluster of the group, with veterans Kris Russell and Andrej Sekera also part of the group that can do some of the hard work.

The one thing has has to factor in: Graduating a group of young defensemen is best accomplished one at a time. Caleb Jones in October, Evan Bouchard in January, William Lagesson next October? That’s probably something the coach can manage.

In his entire Red Wings career, Holland graduated rookie defenseman by sundial: Eriksson (1997); Jiri Fischer (1999); Maxim Kuznetsov (2001); Dmitri Bykov and Jesse Wallin (2002); Brett Ledba and Niklas Kronwall (2005); Derek Meech (2007); Jakub Kindl (2010); Brendan Smith and Brian Lashoff (2012); Danny DeKeyser (2013); Xavier Ouellett (2014); Alexey Marchenko (2015); Nick Jensen and Ryan Sproul (2016); Filip Hronek and Dennis Cholowski (2018). There are five examples of two men arriving in the same year, over 22 seasons, and in most cases it’s a substantial defender with a marginal defender as the second option. The number of seasons where two rookie defensemen played 35 or more games each? Two, 2016-17 and 2018-19.

Using Holland’s own past, I think Caleb Jones as a regular in 2018-19 is probably Ken Holland’s play here. If the team needs money for forwards, you might see Russell or Sekera dealt but that isn’t a certainty.

How to make room? Again using Holland’s previous transactions, Matt Benning is the likely asset out. Dealing Darnell Nurse is unlikely. In fact, he is likely viewed (along with Oscar Klefbom and Adam Larsson) as a foundation piece. We can fight and argue and argue and fight, but if you look at Holland’s trade history, he’s upgrading when dealing blue:

1 Dealt Anders Eriksson and two first round selections for Chris Chelios, who was late 30’s at the time. He would play for almost a decade in Detroit, effectively.

2 Dealt Yan Golubovsky for Igor Larionov. Another example of a young blue being sent out for an aged man but it worked and worked well for three more years.

3 Dealt Aaron Ward for the draft pick that turned into Jiri Hudler. Worked for both teams, and is one of the few examples of Holland dealing away a useful blue.

4 Dealt Maxim Kuznetsov, Sean Avery, a first and a second round pick for Matthieu Schneider, who was money for the next three seasons.

5 Dealt Sebastian Piche and a first round pick for Kyle Quincey, who the Red Wings had developed but sent away too soon. He was effective.

6 Traded Brad Stuart for Andy Murray and a draft pick. Stuart would play for three more seasons.

7 Traded Brendan Smith for a second and third round pick

8 Traded Nick Jensen and a fifth round pick for Madison Bowey and a second round pick.

I think Nick Jensen, Aaron Ward, Kyle Quincey and Anders Eriksson are the three names who had significant tread on their tires when sent away. Taken as a whole, I’ll argue Holland received exceptional value across the entire canvas of his time in Detroit.

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Jaxon

Ryan:
Jaxon,

I’m not suggesting to trade Benning per se,

However, his stats are buoyed by the 3rd pairing d / on the fly shift effect vs elites.

How is it buoyed by that? Playing against elites is playing against elites. If anything he’s probably more likely to be playing against fresh legged elites when other teams try to get their best out against him to exploit 3rd pair D. It’s a huge bonus for the Oilers that those attempts at exploiting the 3rd pair don’t seem to be working against Benning.

Jaxon

oilersfan:
Jaxon, if you keep Benning how do you break in all of Jones, Persson, Bear and Lagesson over the next season given they are all eligible for waivers in one year?

Start with injuries, then if they prove to be better than Benning you can consider trading but even then Benning is a proven NHL D while none of the others are… yet. And those players will be showing who is the best of them in the AHL. You keep the best of the ones playing on the same team. If they don’t force the issue then you probably have your answer about their next contract.

Reja

oilersfan:
Jaxon, if you keep Benning how do you break in all of Jones, Persson, Bear and Lagesson over the next season given they are all eligible for waivers in one year?

You don’t and their trade value is rock bottom Holland will not let this happen.

Ryan

Jaxon,

I’m not suggesting to trade Benning per se,

However, his stats are buoyed by the 3rd pairing d / on the fly shift effect vs elites.

oilersfan

Jaxon, if you keep Benning how do you break in all of Jones, Persson, Bear and Lagesson over the next season given they are all eligible for waivers in one year?

Jaxon

godot10: 3Rd pairing D are like backup quarterbacks. They are loved because they don’t have to play against good players.

The stats that matter are what D do against elite opposition and for how long.

Go read through the May 17 thread regarding Benning, which you participated in. Benning’s metrics this season against elites. 215 minutes vs elites with 48.3CF% (highest on Oilers) and 50.7DFF% (highest on Oilers). He was 2nd in 52DFF% last season over 278 minutes against elites. He was 2nd last season with 53.6 GF% against elites and 3rd this season with 45 GF% against elites. He was 1st with 50.6CF% against elites in 2016-17 as well in 286 minutes and 57.9GF%, and 1st in DFF% against elites with 49.2%.

It also stands to reason that his quality of teammates are going to be worse than the regular top 4 D as it is happening in odd situations rather than regular lines if he’s out against elites. Either he’s still on and some of his linemates are still on when elites come on and he’s probably getting tired, or, he’s coming on against elites on the fly and so to are his partner and bottom 6 forwards. That’s about 780 minutes against elites over those 3 years and he has done very well in those minutes.

I think his numbers against elites are pretty impressive and it’s a bit ludicrous to think about trading a now veteran D who is still relatively young and only costs $1.9M. there is nobody on the roster at the moment to replace those minutes and I would venture that he would be better than Russell, although still not ideal, as 2RHD.

Even if they find a 1RD, or 2RD he is still the best/safest option at 3RD going into next season. And probably one of the better 3rd pair D in the NHL.

godot10

Victoria Oil: Interesting tidbit from this article is that Benning has more even strength points per 60 minutes than Klefbom and is 2nd in that category among Oilers dmen behind Kia’s brother.

3Rd pairing D are like backup quarterbacks. They are loved because they don’t have to play against good players.

The stats that matter are what D do against elite opposition and for how long.

Jaxon

Victoria Oil: Interesting tidbit from this article is that Benning has more even strength points per 60 minutes than Klefbom and is 2nd in that category among Oilers dmen behind Kia’s brother.

… and Sarah’s cousin.

Jaxon

RonnieB: Not that you’re cherry-picking by setting an arbitrary 41-point cut-off, but i’ll just point out that PK had 38 points in 42 games in his age 23 ( Norris Trophy ) season.

Haha… You caught me. But 41 is not quite arbitrary for 2 reasons. One, it is how many points Nurse scored this season. Two, it is exactly 0.5 Pts/GP, over a full season of 82GP, which is a pretty significant milestone. If I lowered it to 38, there’d be someone that has 37. Yes you can find a couple that approached 41 in their 22 or 23 year old season, but only a couple, so that doesn’t change the other thirty some players who didn’t cruise the threshold until they were 23 or older. And also, PK doing it one year earlier than I mentioned means he did it at the same age as Nurse, but had 3 points less.

OriginalPouzar

dykema8:
How bout this for a trade eh? To new York we send out Lucic (with a million retained) plus our #8 overall pick. In exchange we get new York’s #20 pick and a 3rd rounder/b level prospect. If the oil are confident that they can get one of their guys at 20,would be a win having that extra 5 mil to play around with in the off season. New York is happy cause now they have 2 top 10picks tobuild around, plus they get a discount Lucic to plug away on the 4th line. Who says no!?

If the Rangers are looking to add Karlsson or Panarin, I would think they aren’t wanting to add a $5M fourth liner for the next 4 years.

OriginalPouzar

digger50: I believe big ice is the future of the NHL

May I ask why you believe that? I don’t think I’ve heard any rumblings about that and, in fact, the IIHF is cotemplating going to smaller ice, at least for some of their tournaments.

OriginalPouzar

Maoriduvpoojt: Nurse isn’t a great passer and doesn’t possess a consistently dangerous shot.He is a top shot producer in the NHL because he is an eliteskater with size, so his reach helps him to get his (mostly) innocuous shots off.

In addition, he benefits A LOT from his time with elite NHL scorers McDavid & Draisaitl.

Here’s what I posted on March 3rd:
https://lowetide.ca/2019/03/03/thats-entertainment-4/#comment-820047

Updated breakdown for Darnell’s scoring over the past 2 yrs:

11/16 goals assisted by 29 &/or 97 = 69%
31/50 assists on goals where 29 &/or 97 also got a pt = 62%
——————-
2018-19 19/31 of his assists were second assists; with 29 &/or 97 he got 20 assists, 15 of these were second A’s = 75%
7 of his 11 without 29 &/or 97 were primary = 64%

Hopefully he continues to improve his offense and continues to surprise me.

I was going to mention this in my previous post but got lazy. Of course Nurse benefits from playing with McDavid/Drai but I would suggest that every high scoring d-man in the NHL benefits from playing with the top players on their team.

Yes, Nurse is an “elite skater” – isn’t this a positive. That’s what we hear about, the need for plus skaters but, now, with Nurse, to paraphrase “his produces not because he is good offensively but because he’s such a good skater”…….. at some point it doesn’t matter “how” he produces but just that he does.

OriginalPouzar

JimmyV1965: I’ll respond to both you and Reja here. I specifically said we could trade Russel to a team for a forward who may be overpaid by $1 mill. This opens way more doors than outright trading him straight up. Maybe we work out a deal with Toronto for Marleau.Now he makes $2 mill more, but his contract is only for one year. Maybe we swap him to Tampa for Palat.

My point is that there are many teams with forward depth who could use a dman like Russell, while we could use the forward. There are plenty of potential deals out there and plenty of teams that could use Russell.

and I will respond to that suggestion with the same retort, that teams in cap hell, like the Oilers aren’t looking to take dump their contracts of overpaid players and take on new contracts for overpaid players. I would suggest that teams’ with major issues trading legit NHL players on bloated contracts are looking for cap relief and aren’t looking to take back another contract where the player generally under-performs the cap hit.

Toronto is looking for cap space – they won’t be looking to take back a bad contract defeating the purpose.

Ribs

dykema8,

Drafting well is too important in today’s NHL. I say no.

dykema8

How bout this for a trade eh? To new York we send out Lucic (with a million retained) plus our #8 overall pick. In exchange we get new York’s #20 pick and a 3rd rounder/b level prospect. If the oil are confident that they can get one of their guys at 20,would be a win having that extra 5 mil to play around with in the off season. New York is happy cause now they have 2 top 10picks to build around, plus they get a discount Lucic to plug away on the 4th line. Who says no!?

Victoria Oil

Maoriduvpoojt:
Great article by Bruce on CoH regarding Darnell, well done Bruce!

To clarify, there’s no chauffeuring of DN25 in my future,I am simply interested in trying to figure out what this team could do and so I looked at Nurse as one of the most coveted players that another GM might reasonably be able to acquire and I landed on a Pesce-Nurse trade…..But Darnell just keeps on scoring, so there’s no chance he’ll be moved.None.He’s one of my favourite players on this team, so I hope he stays for 8-9 more seasons.

https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/from-training-camp-holdout-to-gold-medal-game-emerging-oilers-rearguard-darnell-nurse-had-an-eventful-season

Interesting tidbit from this article is that Benning has more even strength points per 60 minutes than Klefbom and is 2nd in that category among Oilers dmen behind Kia’s brother.

RonnieB

Jaxon: I’m going to agree with you that a Subban comparison is a stretch, but I’ll also point out that Nurse reached 41 points in his 23-yr-old season and Subban didn’t reach 41 until his 24-yr-old season, so maybe not as much of a stretch as we think. We tend to think of a lot of offensive D bursting into the scene as youngsters, but it usually takes them a bunch of years to get to the 41 point plateau.

Reilly 52 @23
Klingberg 58 @23
Barrie 53@23
Nurse 41 @23
Josi 55 @24
Carlson 55 @25
Giordano 43 @27

Edler 42 @23
Redden 47 @23
Weber 53 @23
Hedman 55 @23
Letang 50 @23
Schneider 44 @23
Pronger 46 @24
Suter 45 @24
McDonagh 43 @ 24
Subban 53 @24
Brodie 41 @24
Byfuglien 53 @25
Bieksa 42 @25
Keith 44 @25
Leddy 46 @25
Wideman 50 @25
Chara 41 @26
McCabe 43 @26
Campbell 44 @26
D Boyle 53 @26
Timonen 42 @26
Zidlicky 53 @26
Markov 46 @27
Rafalski 52 @27
Kronwall 51 @28
Visnovsky 67 @29
Streit 62 @30
Souray 64 @30
Ekblad hasn’t made 41 yet, next year will be his 23 year old season.

The other thing this list illustrates is that D often keep improving into their late 20s so Nurse still has the potential to keep improving for another 7 years.

Not that you’re cherry-picking by setting an arbitrary 41-point cut-off, but i’ll just point out that PK had 38 points in 42 games in his age 23 ( Norris Trophy ) season.

digger50

OriginalPouzar: Not even – did the goalie have to make a tough save in the third?

In all that zone time Canada had in the third period, all that puck possession, all those shots towards the net, how many of them were from even close to a high danger scoring area? They were almost all from the outside. Absolutely Finland played their ass off and played their structure and system to a T but that dam big ice, is so conducive to lower talent teams playing being able to compete with the high talent teams. Yes, credit for playing the system, absolutely, but I am glad the IIHF is contemplating doing away with the big ice, at least for certain tournaments.

I hate the big ice – it is so conducive to a lower talented team playing a structured game against a higher talent team and just stiffing offence.

I believe big ice is the future of the NHL

€√¥£€^$

Great article by Bruce on CoH regarding Darnell, well done Bruce!

To clarify, there’s no chauffeuring of DN25 in my future, I am simply interested in trying to figure out what this team could do and so I looked at Nurse as one of the most coveted players that another GM might reasonably be able to acquire and I landed on a Pesce-Nurse trade…..But Darnell just keeps on scoring, so there’s no chance he’ll be moved. None. He’s one of my favourite players on this team, so I hope he stays for 8-9 more seasons.

https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/from-training-camp-holdout-to-gold-medal-game-emerging-oilers-rearguard-darnell-nurse-had-an-eventful-season

Gerta Rauss

Munny: I’m guessing the time stamp changes.

Edit:Nope.

Dunno then… I’ve never seen a record either.At least LT can.

Yeah, that’s something the Administrator of the blog can probably see, but it isn’t visible to the front end users

Munny

Nit64: Never seen those. But at least you can check if there is any question.

I’m guessing the time stamp changes.

Edit: Nope.

Dunno then… I’ve never seen a record either. At least LT can.

€√¥£€^$

Dr. Taboggan:
Jaxon,

Loving the Nurse posts. Oilers finally develop a solid 2-way dman and fans start driving him to the airport. Classic.

Well, old folks could be considered classics there son.

Now get the hell off my lawn, damn whipper snapper!

*edit* So therefore, unlike myself, you find all this talk about Nurse to be offensive……..

€√¥£€^$

Jaxon: You should do that same exercise with Hedman (Kucherov, Stamkos, Point), Barrie (MacKinnon, Landeskog, Rantanen), Carlson (Ovechkin, Backstrom, Kuznetsov), Rielly (Tavares, Matthews, Marner). Maybe I’ll be wrong but I think a large portion of their points will coincide with their top forwards too.

Hi Jaxon,

I appreciate your posts and the effort you put in to provide the info. I just discovered that hockeyreference.com is a wonderful site for finding basic data, so I may well jump into your suggestion regarding Hedman, Barry, Rielly & Carlson….although clearly these players had substantial NHL offensive potential before they’d played their first game.

1. Hedman: “Hedman’s puck skills are above average and he is very good at moving the puck into the offensive end in high speed. He is also quite shifty and creative and can stickhandle through heavy traffic. Offensively, he has a good shot, including a heavy slapper that he could, however, use more frequently. His passing game is also of high caliber.“

He also played 82 games in the SHL as a 16-17 & 17-18 year old and produced offence at a decent rate.

2. Barrie: “Barrie is a smooth-skating defenseman and a formidable playmaker. Though not especially physical and of modest stature, he is comfortable in his own zone and is blessed with great vision and soft hands.”

He scored 228 points in his WHL career

3. Carlson: “Carlson is a big defenseman with offensive upside and one of the hardest shots available at this year’s draft. ‘He’s an excellent quarterback of the power play with an absolute bomb for a point shot,’ notes one scout. ‘His vision, poise and creativity with the puck are all superb. He’s also dangerous joining the rush where he innately identifies openings.’”

In his only season in the OHL (18-19 yr old) he scored 76 pts in 59 games.

4, Rielly: “An offensively very skilled defenseman that plays a decent defensive game at the same time. Gifted skater with nice puck skills and a good shot.”

Limited to 18 games in his draft year, he was close to being a Pt per game player in his last 2 WHL seasons.

5. Nurse: “Nurse is a strong two-way defenseman with good size and mobility. Plays a very solid game, good positioning and rarely makes any mistakes. Enjoys playing physical.”

He scored 134 points in a 4 year OHL career, but came close to a Pt per game in his final season (33 pts in 36 games) and had 40 & 56 pts in prior seasons, but was never considered a offensive-type of Dman like the others who all have superior shooting and passing abilities.

Nurse has surpassed my expectations/biases and I only hope he continues to improve on his totals.

FYI, if I had added Nuge, the percentages would have jumped to about 85%.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Jaxon,

Loving the Nurse posts. Oilers finally develop a solid 2-way dman and fans start driving him to the airport. Classic.

Hairbag

godot10,

This is incorrect, he had 4 or 5 different offers but waited in the hopes that the Flames could deal Wideman (they were trying) and he would be able to stay in Calgary and close to home Caroline. The Flames couldn’t deal Wideman and had no capspace to sign Russell, at which time the Oilers offered him a contract and he was able to stay in Alberta.

N64

Lowetide: There’s no need. If you edit something, there’s a record of it below the post.

Never seen those. But at least you can check if there is any question.

Material Elvis

Oilman99: For example, if you are offered a three for one deal for Draisaitl, including two bonafide top nine wingers, and a serviceable d-man it would be a win win situation, as you also get out cap hell too.

God I hope this post is satire.

BONE207

Woodguy v2.0:
*****WARNING SPAM*****

New Because Oilers:

“12 seasons of NHL teams’ 5v5 Goal Share with and without their best player on the ice”

http://becauseoilers.blogspot.com/2019/05/12-seasons-of-nhl-teams-5v5-goal-share.html

*****END SPAM*****

Woodguy…great work.

Wow…what an unbalanced club for so long. Jesus is not weeping anymore. I think he has his katana firmly in his belly & poised to thrust.
Great to see how well Hall, Ebs, Hemsky & Penner did in the earlier days. This is why I drink.

Jaxon

BornInAGretzkyJersey:
Jaxon,

To my eye, the only comparable for Burns within that foursome is the points.The others were/are far superior defenders.Burns needs to be heavily sheltered and to be used as a rover to get his points.The others come by points from a defensive station.

Any way he comes by his points, Nurse is trending well.I agree with Godot, get him a better partner than Russell and see what he irons out in the next couple years.It would just be nice to not pay for a $6MM+ for a guy who needs carried on a pairing, though.

Very good points although I think Nurse’s perceived lack of defensive accumen is overstated. Some due to his partner, some due to the microscope of playing top minutes against elites. I think we’re also forgetting that Chara was not perfect early in his career, and I don’t imagine Pronger or Byfuglien were either (Pronger may have been, he was quite the beast from early on if I remember correctly).

Another thing to ponder is if he’s so bad defensively why have 3 NHL coaches in a row seen fit to give him top minutes in MacLellan, Hitchcock, and now Vigneault at the World Hockey Championship. I guess you could argue lack of good options in Edmonton, but I’m not sure that’s entirely the case. Those coaches speak highly of him and play him like a #1D.

Jaxon

Reja: Honest question how many points would the goodquick transition passers and on the tape headman passers have if they were feeding the puck to Leon and Mcdavid 20 minutes a night. These two wonderful players are inflating Nurses stats somewhat if someone can find the data toshut me up please do so.

Do you think Edmonton’s top 6n is more of an advantage to play with than other team’s to 6?
5v5 scoring over that same sample of Nurse’s last 177GP:
EDM Top 6
McDavid 151
Draisaitl 115
Nugent-Hopkins 69
Kassian 44
Lucic 44
Maroon 33
EDM Top 6 = 456pts
Nurse 57pts

TBL Top 6
Kucherov 134
Point 104
Stamkos 99
Gourde 85
Killorn 67
Johnson 65
TBL Top 6 = 554pts (almost 100 more points form top 6 and Hedman has 2 less points)
Hedman 55pts

WSH Top 6
Ovechkin 104
Kuznetsov 92
Backstrom 86
Connolly 68
Vrana 64
Wilson 64
WSH Top 6 = 478pts
Carlson 65pts

TOR Top 6
Matthews 99
Marner 98
Nylander 72
Hyman 70
Kadri 68
Tavares 60
TOR Top 6 = 467pts
Reilly 68pts

Jaxon

Maoriduvpoojt: Nurse isn’t a great passer and doesn’t possess a consistently dangerous shot.He is a top shot producer in the NHL because he is an eliteskater with size, so his reach helps him to get his (mostly) innocuos shots off.

In addition, he benefits A LOT from his time with elite NHL scorers McDavid & Draisaitl.

Here’s what I posted on March 3rd:
https://lowetide.ca/2019/03/03/thats-entertainment-4/#comment-820047

Updated breakdown for Darnell’s scoring over the past 2 yrs:

11/16 goals assisted by 29 &/or 97 = 69%
31/50 assists on goals where 29 &/or 97 also got a pt = 62%
——————-
2018-19 19/31 of his assists were second assists; with 29 &/or 97 he got 20 assists, 15 of these were second A’s = 75%
7 of his 11 without 29 &/or 97 were primary = 64%

Hopefully he continues to improve his offense and continues to surprise me.

You should do that same exercise with Hedman (Kucherov, Stamkos, Point), Barrie (MacKinnon, Landeskog, Rantanen), Carlson (Ovechkin, Backstrom, Kuznetsov), Rielly (Tavares, Matthews, Marner). Maybe I’ll be wrong but I think a large portion of their points will coincide with their top forwards too.

pts2pndr

OriginalPouzar: I think Sekera is about 11 months older – not sure that is material.

I’m also not so sure about “more fragile”.Yup, Reggie has had two major injuries but neither of those are of the type where there is a risk of re-injury, at least to my knowledge.Surgery has been done and they are “fixed” – yes, there is a risk of decreased mobility or so but not re-injury, to my knowledge. On the other hand, Russell has re-curing groin injuries and I would suggest there is a greater chance of Russ missing games with his groin than Sekera re-injuring his knee or achillies or having another major injury.

I would also suggest that we acknowledge that, while Reggie was indeed in a sheltered role for most of his stint, he did so with a couple of years of rust, no training camp and 5 months behind the rest of the league.I would also suggest he’ll be improved next year over what we saw this year.

You could be right but the risk in my opinion is high. Waiting a year only means you get one year further down the road still not knowing what you have in your young D. The move as I see it is freeing up the cap space to give yourself the ability to adjust your roster. Sekera and or Russel are not the answer moving forward. Your idea of moving just Russel does have merit. That would give you some cover through the youth movement.

Reja

Jaxon: I’m going to agree with you that a Subban comparison is a stretch, but I’ll also point out that Nurse reached 41 points in his 23-yr-old season and Subban didn’t reach 41 until his 24-yr-old season, so maybe not as much of a stretch as we think. We tend to think of a lot of offensive D bursting into the scene as youngsters, but it usually takes them a bunch of years to get to the 41 point plateau.

Reilly 52 @23
Klingberg 58 @23
Barrie 53@23
Nurse 41 @23
Josi 55 @24
Carlson 55 @25
Giordano 43 @27

Edler 42 @23
Redden 47 @23
Weber 53 @23
Hedman 55 @23
Letang 50 @23
Schneider 44 @23
Pronger 46 @24
Suter 45 @24
McDonagh 43 @ 24
Subban 53 @24
Brodie 41 @24
Byfuglien 53 @25
Bieksa 42 @25
Keith 44 @25
Leddy 46 @25
Wideman 50 @25
Chara 41 @26
McCabe 43 @26
Campbell 44 @26
D Boyle 53 @26
Timonen 42 @26
Zidlicky 53 @26
Markov 46 @27
Rafalski 52 @27
Kronwall 51 @28
Visnovsky 67 @29
Streit 62 @30
Souray 64 @30
Ekblad hasn’t made 41 yet, next year will be his 23 year old season.

The other thing this list illustrates is that D often keep improving into their late 20s so Nurse still has the potential to keep improving for another 7 years.

Honest question how many points would the good quick transition passers and on the tape headman passers have if they were feeding the puck to Leon and Mcdavid 20 minutes a night. These two wonderful players are inflating Nurses stats somewhat if someone can find the data to shut me up please do so.

Glovjuice

OriginalPouzar: Not even – did the goalie have to make a tough save in the third?

In all that zone time Canada had in the third period, all that puck possession, all those shots towards the net, how many of them were from even close to a high danger scoring area? They were almost all from the outside. Absolutely Finland played their ass off and played their structure and system to a T but that dam big ice, is so conducive to lower talent teams playing being able to compete with the high talent teams. Yes, credit for playing the system, absolutely, but I am glad the IIHF is contemplating doing away with the big ice, at least for certain tournaments.

I hate the big ice – it is so conducive to a lower talented team playing a structured game against a higher talent team and just stiffing offence.

I guess Canada should have played a structured game to stifle Finland’s offense.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Jaxon,

To my eye, the only comparable for Burns within that foursome is the points. The others were/are far superior defenders. Burns needs to be heavily sheltered and to be used as a rover to get his points. The others come by points from a defensive station.

Any way he comes by his points, Nurse is trending well. I agree with Godot, get him a better partner than Russell and see what he irons out in the next couple years. It would just be nice to not pay for a $6MM+ for a guy who needs carried on a pairing, though.

€√¥£€^$

OriginalPouzar: He doesn’t have the “offensive toolkit”, yet, year after year after year, he keeps producing at 5 on 5 – as per Jaxon’s posts, in the last 2.5 years, 177 games, he’s in the top 10 in the NHL/

At some point, it needs to be acknowledged that he’s simply a 30 point 5 on 5 d-man and it doesn’t really matter how he looks doing it. Production is production and the sample size is now real.

Nurse isn’t a great passer and doesn’t possess a consistently dangerous shot. He is a top shot producer in the NHL because he is an elite skater with size, so his reach helps him to get his (mostly) innocuous shots off.

In addition, he benefits A LOT from his time with elite NHL scorers McDavid & Draisaitl.

Here’s what I posted on March 3rd:
https://lowetide.ca/2019/03/03/thats-entertainment-4/#comment-820047

Updated breakdown for Darnell’s scoring over the past 2 yrs:

11/16 goals assisted by 29 &/or 97 = 69%
31/50 assists on goals where 29 &/or 97 also got a pt = 62%
——————-
2018-19 19/31 of his assists were second assists; with 29 &/or 97 he got 20 assists, 15 of these were second A’s = 75%
7 of his 11 without 29 &/or 97 were primary = 64%

Hopefully he continues to improve his offense and continues to surprise me.

JimmyV1965

OriginalPouzar: Now you are forcing me to argue against myself.While, sure, those teams could use Russell but the first 4 wouldn’t trade a 7th round pick for him because they are in cap hell and, as much as they could use Russell, his contract is not a value contract and is indeed an overpay.His game is valued and there are a handful of teams that would likely take it on but not all of those.

I’ll respond to both you and Reja here. I specifically said we could trade Russel to a team for a forward who may be overpaid by $1 mill. This opens way more doors than outright trading him straight up. Maybe we work out a deal with Toronto for Marleau. Now he makes $2 mill more, but his contract is only for one year. Maybe we swap him to Tampa for Palat.

My point is that there are many teams with forward depth who could use a dman like Russell, while we could use the forward. There are plenty of potential deals out there and plenty of teams that could use Russell.

Jaxon

I’m still not closing the door on Nurse becoming a player like Pronger, Burns, Byfuglien, Or Chara. Burns is the only one in that group to get 41 points at an earlier age than Nurse when he did it at 22 compared to Nurse’s 23, Pronger’s 24, Byfuglien’s 25, and Chara’s 26.

I think defensive lapses are over stated and more a result of playing big high event minutes where he’s facing elite competition with poor goaltending. That’s going to make every little mistake more noticable.

If you can go find game reports of those comparisons in their 22 year old and 23 year old seasons I bet you can find complaints about their defensive coverage and decision making as well. It takes time to learn D at the NHL level.

Also, I’m of the belief that Russell is a terrible partner for him. He gives up the blue to easily, loops back too often once he has the pick when he should be getting it up ice to breaking forwards, and falls or blocks too often resulting in unpredictable situations when the pick bounces off him or he is out of position when trying to block a pass. That produces chaos.

Jaxon

Reja: Yea I think your right but if they would have gotten to him a little earlier. If Nurse’s agent is comparing him to Subban that’s a big stretch and everyone knows it. If you sit down and Drink a 24 witha clean shaven Bouchard by the time your finished drinkinghe has a full beard the man is close and will climb the latter quick and QB a top 3 PP starting next fall.

I’m going to agree with you that a Subban comparison is a stretch, but I’ll also point out that Nurse reached 41 points in his 23-yr-old season and Subban didn’t reach 41 until his 24-yr-old season, so maybe not as much of a stretch as we think. We tend to think of a lot of offensive D bursting into the scene as youngsters, but it usually takes them a bunch of years to get to the 41 point plateau.

Reilly 52 @23
Klingberg 58 @23
Barrie 53@23
Nurse 41 @23
Josi 55 @24
Carlson 55 @25
Giordano 43 @27

Edler 42 @23
Redden 47 @23
Weber 53 @23
Hedman 55 @23
Letang 50 @23
Schneider 44 @23
Pronger 46 @24
Suter 45 @24
McDonagh 43 @ 24
Subban 53 @24
Brodie 41 @24
Byfuglien 53 @25
Bieksa 42 @25
Keith 44 @25
Leddy 46 @25
Wideman 50 @25
Chara 41 @26
McCabe 43 @26
Campbell 44 @26
D Boyle 53 @26
Timonen 42 @26
Zidlicky 53 @26
Markov 46 @27
Rafalski 52 @27
Kronwall 51 @28
Visnovsky 67 @29
Streit 62 @30
Souray 64 @30
Ekblad hasn’t made 41 yet, next year will be his 23 year old season.

The other thing this list illustrates is that D often keep improving into their late 20s so Nurse still has the potential to keep improving for another 7 years.

Jaxon

Victoria Oil,

Aww shucks, thanks and welcome back to Canada!

OriginalPouzar

JimmyV1965: Do you seriously believe this? Just off the top of my head, here are some teams that could seriously use Russell next year:

Toronto
Tampa
Winnipeg
Vegas
Pittsburgh
Montreal
Chicago
Buffalo
Detroit
Ottawa
LA

Sorry dude, but you’ve watched Russel too much and seen his obvious weaknesses, without considering the possibility that there are many worse dmen in this league.

Now you are forcing me to argue against myself. While, sure, those teams could use Russell but the first 4 wouldn’t trade a 7th round pick for him because they are in cap hell and, as much as they could use Russell, his contract is not a value contract and is indeed an overpay. His game is valued and there are a handful of teams that would likely take it on but not all of those.

Foege Foegele Torpe

pts2pndr: He is like the container of milk approaching the best before date. You may find you are not getting the Sekera of old but an old Sekera.

This is quality

OriginalPouzar

Reja: If Russell is playing at 5-6 at 4 mil when we have 4 different D chomping at the bit for that spot at 5 times less money plus development time did we not learna lesson with Gustafson and not finding out what we had.

1) Given teams generally use 10 plus d-men a season, all our “on the cusp prospects” will get their chances.

2) You post didn’t speak to the point of the post you were responding to which is that Russell have more value to other GMs than you suggest.

OriginalPouzar

pts2pndr: You are putting your eggs in an older fragile basket. At his contract price point and the fact that he has lost a step you have little to go on to show he is still a top four D. He did well in a sheltered third pairing role. The head is there but it still remains to be seen if the legs still are. He is like the container of milk approaching the best before date. You may find you are not getting the Sekera of old but an old Sekera.

I think Sekera is about 11 months older – not sure that is material.

I’m also not so sure about “more fragile”. Yup, Reggie has had two major injuries but neither of those are of the type where there is a risk of re-injury, at least to my knowledge. Surgery has been done and they are “fixed” – yes, there is a risk of decreased mobility or so but not re-injury, to my knowledge. On the other hand, Russell has re-curing groin injuries and I would suggest there is a greater chance of Russ missing games with his groin than Sekera re-injuring his knee or achillies or having another major injury.

I would also suggest that we acknowledge that, while Reggie was indeed in a sheltered role for most of his stint, he did so with a couple of years of rust, no training camp and 5 months behind the rest of the league. I would also suggest he’ll be improved next year over what we saw this year.

Reja

JimmyV1965: Do you seriously believe this? Just off the top of my head, here are some teams that could seriously use Russell next year:

Toronto
Tampa
Winnipeg
Vegas
Pittsburgh
Montreal
Chicago
Buffalo
Detroit
Ottawa
LA

Sorry dude, but you’ve watched Russel too much and seen his obvious weaknesses, without considering the possibility that there are many worse dmen in this league.

At 4 mil no retention Mate you seriously believe one of these teams would take or make phone calls this summer for Mr Russell. When do the betting wiickets open.

JimmyV1965

Reja: If your a GM thatwants to keep your job would you take Russell for a 7th rounder this offseason. He might fetch that at the trade deadline next year but until then he has negative value.

Do you seriously believe this? Just off the top of my head, here are some teams that could seriously use Russell next year:

Toronto
Tampa
Winnipeg
Vegas
Pittsburgh
Montreal
Chicago
Buffalo
Detroit
Ottawa
LA

Sorry dude, but you’ve watched Russel too much and seen his obvious weaknesses, without considering the possibility that there are many worse dmen in this league.

Reja

pts2pndr: Russel as a number five D who can fill in top four adequately short term left or right D has value. The fact that our team management plays him as second pairing Don his off side is not Russels fault. His contract is only a slight overpay as a fifth D. The oilers have cap problems and Russel is not the answer for second pairing right D. They can not afford the luxury of Russel as number five because they don’t have a legitimate second pairing right D.This does not mean Russel doesn’t have value!

If Russell is playing at 5-6 at 4 mil when we have 4 different D chomping at the bit for that spot at 5 times less money plus development time did we not learn a lesson with Gustafson and not finding out what we had.

pts2pndr

Reja: If your a GM thatwants to keep your job would you take Russell for a 7th rounder this offseason. He might fetch that at the trade deadline next year but until then he has negative value.

Russel as a number five D who can fill in top four adequately short term left or right D has value. The fact that our team management plays him as second pairing Don his off side is not Russels fault. His contract is only a slight overpay as a fifth D. The oilers have cap problems and Russel is not the answer for second pairing right D. They can not afford the luxury of Russel as number five because they don’t have a legitimate second pairing right D. This does not mean Russel doesn’t have value!