Forever Doesn’t Mean Forever Anymore

Dave Tippett played hockey in the ’70’s, ’80’s and ’90’s. When he stopped playing, he went directly into coaching and he worked his way up from the IHL to assistant coach in the NHL to head coach. He’s never won a Stanley but took a Dallas team and a Phoenix team into the third round. You can find a lot of people who are willing to tear a strip off this hire before the media avail, but I think Mr. Tippett warrants a more nuanced view.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group. INSANE OFFER IS HERE!

  • New Lowetide: What will Ken Holland see in Evan Bouchard?
  • New Lowetide: Does Oilers’ signing of Joakim Nygard signal a measured approach to summer 2019?
  • Lowetide: Dave Tippett’s roster deployment in Arizona and what it might mean for the Oilers
  • Jonathan Willis: Why Ken Holland’s worst years in Detroit tell us the most about how he’ll fare in Edmonton
  • Jonathan Willis: Three offseason scenarios and how each one would affect the Oilers salary cap
  • Lowetide: Examining the Oilers’ goaltending options in free agency.
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s Oilers could go the high octane procurement route but will need a driver
  • Lowetide: How much can Connor Brown help the Oilers?
  • Lowetide: Dmitri Samorukov is off to the Memorial Cup and is the Oilers’ fastest rising prospect
  • Jonathan Willis: Craig MacTavish leaves the Oilers, signalling the first major front office change under Ken Holland
  • Lowetide: What kind of coach should Ken Holland hire for the Oilers?
  • Jonathan Willis: Every Oilers AHL prospect, rated by how close they are to the NHL
  • Jonathan Willis: A resurgent Andrej Sekera gives the Oilers much-needed defensive options
  • Lowetide: Is Joe Gambardella destined to become the Oilers’ next Fernando Pisani?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Protector, supporter, confidant: Connor McDavid’s mom, Kelly, is his off-ice rock through good times and bad
  • Lowetide: An offseason plan for Ken Holland to remodel the Oilers roster.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland steadfast that buck stops with him as new Oilers GM.
  • Lowetide: How will Ken Holland proceed in Year 1 as Oilers general manager?
  • Jonathan Willis: What does the arrival of Ken Holland mean for the Oilers coaching search?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Prioritizing the roster issues that await Ken Holland in Edmonton.
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s procurement list for his rumored move to Edmonton will include front-office personnel
  • Jonathan Willis: A Milan Lucic trade is at the top of the to-do list for the Oilers’ next GM.

Nice headphones. That was state of the art back then, I remember wearing those same mic/phones back in the day.

What were Tippett’s best teams? His Dallas team ’05-06 and ’06-07 both won 50 or more games. They were veteran teams, strong, with some speed and grit. Mike Modano, Bill Guerin, Jere Lehtinen, Brenden Morrow, Jason Arnott.

Who was their best player? I’ll say Sergei Zubov. He was 300 years old, lived on pickled eggs and vodka shots, but my goodness what a player.

Goalie? In Dallas, Marty Turco and then Mike Smith.

Best Coyotes team? The first one, they won 50 games and had a balanced, veteran team. The 2011-12 team went the farthest though, third round.

Who was their best player? The goalie is always a star for Tippett, so Ilya Bryzgalov and then Mike Smith are prominent names. Among skaters, before OEL, I’d list Shane Doan, an emerging Martin Hanzal, Radim Vrbata.

What are the strengths of Tippett’s teams? The best ones, by that I mean all but the final few Coyotes teams, were good at outscoring opponents.

Example? In 2005-06, the average NHL team scored and allowed 248 goals. Dallas scored 253 and allowed 217. They were solid on the power play-penalty kill (scored 88, allowed 82, average 85-85) but the strength came at even strength (155-128, +27).

Another example? In 2011-12, in Phoenix. Average team scored and allowed 218 goals, Coyotes 210-194. At even strength, Phoenix scored 170 goals, allowed 152, +18.

How many even-strength goals did Edmonton score and allow last season? Oilers scored 172, allowed 202. That 202 number should get carved down handsomely if Tippett can deliver as he’s been able to do in the past.

How many points do Tippett’s team post in his first season as coach? Dallas had 111 points and won the Pacific Division in 2002-03. Phoenix Coyotes had 107 points in 2009-10, his team finished second in the Pacific.

QUESTIONS

One of the big questions surrounding Dave Tippett (and Ken Holland) and their arrival in Edmonton is Jesse Puljujarvi. Look, I know he isn’t working out but you just can’t leave him by the side of the road. Seriously. If they’re going to move on, make a deal that gets the organization something, and puts JP in a good spot. I would suggest a quality AHL forward in or near entry deal. Here are the best in the pool based on being under 23 and having a solid points-per-game total. I included two Oilers kids for fun, this is 5-on-5 scoring.

RC Cooper Marody 58, 12-28-40 (.690)

R Drake Batherson 59, 16-24-40 (.678) Not a chance Ottawa deals him.

LC John Quenneville 37, 9-15-24 (.649) NJD would probably trade him, don’t know if JP would be a target.

L AJ Greer 54, 12-20-32 (.593) Colorado would be an interesting spot for JP, not sure if Greer could be pried loose.

L Tyler Benson 68, 13-27-40 (.588)

LC Aleksei Saarela 69, 20-16-36 (.522) Playing alongside Sebastian Aho might be ideal for JP, would they deal promising scorer Saarela?

BALANCE

The television kept telling me ‘moar big’ was the reason for St. Louis and Boston making the Stanley Cup Finals this spring. I’ve mentioned this 1,000 times, but for me the key elements for both teams are things like goaltending, outscoring and balance.

What do I mean by balance? Well, Boston is a balanced team. They boast two quality goaltenders, some puck movers (Krug) and some shutdown (Chara) types and some very nice young blue (McAvoy, Carlo, Grzelcyk) contributing to the cause. They have depth, as demonstrated by Connor Clifton’s emergence.

Up front, they have Patrice Bergeron, who is pretty close to perfect. Brad Marchand is a titmouse but the man can play and David Pastrnak is a pure sniper.

That veteran forward group (which also includes David Krejci) is followed up with two excellent youngsters who can help with the offense (Jake DeBrusk, Danton Heinen). The bottom six can skate, deliver some offense and play a disciplined game.

That’s balance. Not every player is a speed demon with a howitzer, but each man on the roster can supply something of value. Twelve players have seven or more points, that’s depth across the roster. The added rentals (Charlie Coyle, Marcus Johansson) have also contributed.

You can have Adam Larsson on your team, but Adam Larsson and Kris Russell on your team means two defenders who aren’t expert with the puck inside the top 4D. Darnell Nurse can transport like a King but is not a great outlet passer. If you take out (say) Russell, and place Evan Bouchard inside the top 4D, that means Oscar Klefbom and Bouchard can play the role of passing blue on one pairing each. That’s the goal for Ken Holland and (soon) Dave Tippett. Godspeed.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260, it’s going to be a big day. Jonathan Willis from The Athletic will join us at 10:20 and we’ll chat Tippett and Milan Lucic trade scenarios. At 11, Ken Holland introduces Dave Tippett (we believe) as Edmonton’s 21st head coach (including WHA). 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. History is made today. We’ve been saying that a lot lately.

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181 Responses to "Forever Doesn’t Mean Forever Anymore"

  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    3 year deal for Tippett.

    Sounds like the assistants will not be announced today.

    Prob at least one of Lamb and/or Playfair.

    Yawney prob gone to LA.

    Gulutzan May stay.

    Hope Viverios does.

    Presser at 11.

  2. Nit64 says:

    May 7th 10 am
    May 28th 11 am

    Oil announcements not always revolving around feeding the rights-holder’s noon show. That’s a good thing.

  3. Nit64 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Sounds like the assistants will not be announced today.

    @TSNRyanRishaug
    28m28 minutes ago

    Not expecting an announcement on rest of coaching staff today for the Oilers, likely head coach only for now.

  4. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    I’m happy with the Tippett signing.

    From what I’ve gleaned from his record and heard/read from those who have played for him he maximizes the roster’s strengths rather than impose a system of play on a roster regardless of the roster make up.

    Seems to shelter kids properly to bring out their best (see: first two years of Domi, Duclair etc in ARI)

    Many players have had their best offensive years with him as coach and the goals against tend to go down due to a good defensive structure.

    I’m cautiously optimistic.

  5. Jethro Tull says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I’m cautiously optimistic.

    We’ll hope for the best!

  6. Jaxon says:

    “Jesse Puljujarvi. Look, I know he isn’t working out”

    Let’s slow our roll on Puljujarvi being a bust. He just turned 21 two weeks ago. My goodness. Plus, his underlying numbers and points production have been great with great linemates and against bottom 9 players. He had a decent 2nd NHL season. What lead to him taking a step back this season. That is a pretty darn important piece of information. Was it his hip? Was it being bounced around too much? Was it terrible linemates? Is it still a cultural thing or a processing the game thing? The Oilers need to figure this out and take steps to get the most out of him before they even consider washing their hands of Jesse.

    If given a chance, I think there’s a real chance he’ll make big steps this season.

  7. Ben says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    I’m happy with the Tippett signing.

    From what I’ve gleaned from his record and heard/read from those who have played for him he maximizes the roster’s strengths rather than impose a system of play on a roster regardless of the roster make up.

    Seems to shelter kids properly to bring out their best (see: first two years of Domi, Duclair etc in ARI)

    Many players have had their best offensive years with him as coach and the goals against tend to go down due to a good defensive structure.

    I’m cautiously optimistic.

    Agreed. He’s also a numbers guy.

    Would prefer a younger, special teams innovator on the assistant staff (this was the hope for Viveiros last year).

    .

  8. Jethro Tull says:

    The Oilers had a very real opportunity to innovate and get on the inside track when it comes to analytics and cap management.

    Remember, Chia and Todd were also touted as the safe hands to guide the Oilers into the McDavid era.

    But it seems as once again Darryl turns to Bob and says, “we need another GM and Coach. Here’s a shovel, some mandrake root and directions to the Hockey Cemetery.”

    The mandate from the top was to not just build a middling playoff team, but a legit contender. You rarely do that by trying the same things the others are doing, but only they have been doing it longer and better.

    This is a meh signing for me. A yawn of a signing. The Oilers will still likely deal with a GM that constructs a flawed roster, a coach that let’s him know with baffling deployment and players that are willing to accept infini-build.

    This may not end well. Of course, we may end up with 108pts and a conference final next year, in which case I’ll edit my little heart out!

  9. OriginalPouzar says:

    Dammit, already posted this but it got lost in LT forum cyberspace….

    ——————

    :You can have Adam Larsson on your team, but Adam Larsson and Kris Russell on your team means two defenders who aren’t expert with the puck inside the top 4D. Darnell Nurse can transport like a King but is not a great outlet passer. If you take out (say) Russell, and place Evan Bouchard inside the top 4D, that means Oscar Klefbom and Bouchard can play the role of passing blue on one pairing each. That’s the goal for Ken Holland and (soon) Dave Tippett. Godspeed.”

    ————————————

    What if we have Andrei Sekera, a puck mover, in the top 4 instead of Kris Russell – with either Russell traded or on the 3rd pairing?

    Yes, that would mean Sekera or another leftie d-man (Nurse) on their off-side so not ideal, however, Russell on his off-side at 2RD is far from ideal

    ——————————-

    What is there is a plus puck mover such as Jones or Persson (or Bear, although he isn’t ready and should be below Lagesson on the depth cart) on the 3rd pairing? Does that help the puck moving as a group or will they not play enough 5 on 5 minutes? Of course, it remains to be seen how exactly their game and transition game will translate to the NHL right awa.

    —————————–

    Yes, clearly the organization has plans for Bouchard on the right side in the top 4, however, that cannot be for the 2019/20 season and likely not even for the 2020/21 season – for the 2021/22 season for sure.

  10. bwar says:

    Big year coming for the Lucic-Brodziak-Kassian line.

  11. Caribbeerman says:

    I am intrigued by the Tippett signing. A more qualified coach would be difficult to identify and I think this two year break could actually help as it may have allowed him to study the game and the changes that have been occurring. He must be chomping at the bit to get back behind the bench, but even more so with a superstar like CMD. He along with Dutch will form a very professional partnership at the head of the franchise and establish a commitment to winning and hopefully a recognizable culture change.

    Talk is cheap, results are what matter, the players are the ones who make the difference on the ice & ultimately are the difference between winning and losing. But the Coach and GM choose the roster, the style of play and the deployment… and that makes a big difference as well. I’m optimistic that the Oilers have an excellent chance to get this right in year 1 and for years to come.

  12. Darth Tu says:

    Ben: Agreed. He’s also a numbers guy.

    Would prefer a younger, special teams innovator on the assistant staff (this was the hope for Viveiros last year).

    .

    I’m hoping Viveiros is sticking around with Tippet and will get that chance to really run with the special teams this season.

    I’m in the WG camp of being cautiously optimistic.

  13. Bar_Qu says:

    If only there were some sort of visual, a picture even, that could effectively demonstrate what balance looks like. Oh well, we will just have to guess what that might be. 😉

  14. Jaxon says:

    For instance, over the past 3 seasons and 138 minutes at 5v5, when Puljujarvi and McDavid were on the ice together without Draisaitl or Nugent-Hopkins, they OutScored the opposition 21-10, OutCorsied them 399-324, OutFenwicked them 303-236. Out High-Danger-Corsied them 96-65. That is McDavid’s best partner from a shots and goals percentage without the others. Not a very big sample size, but why the hell wouldn’t the coaches keep running with that?!?!

    Khaira-Draisaitl also have a similar relationship in limited minutes over 3 season and 138 minutes of 5v5 (interestingly the exact same sample size as JP & McD), not as good, but still quite good considering it was without Nuge and McD, Khaira and Draisaitl have OutCorsied 176-160, OutFenwicked 135-121, OutScored 11-9, Out High-Danger-Corsied 36-29. Much lower event than McDavid and Puljujarvi but still winning possession and games.

  15. Craig Zonit says:

    The hairiest of asses line. Though I think Kassian will continue to take a regular shift with McDavid.
    Caribbeerman,

  16. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Jethro Tull: We’ll hope for the best!

    The Oiler Fan Way

  17. Woogie63 says:

    Jaxon:
    “Jesse Puljujarvi. Look, I know he isn’t working out”

    Let’s slow our roll on Puljujarvi being a bust. He just turned 21 two weeks ago. My goodness. Plus, his underlying numbers and points production have been great with great linemates and against bottom 9 players. He had a decent 2nd NHL season. What lead to him taking a step back this season. That is a pretty darn important piece of information. Was it his hip? Was it being bounced around too much? Was it terrible linemates? Is it still a cultural thing or a processing the game thing? The Oilers need to figure this out and take steps to get the most out of him before they even consider washing their hands of Jesse.

    If given a chance, I think there’s a real chance he’ll make big steps this season.

    This is right,
    Imagine if this team had Dubynk, Petry and Shultz right now?

  18. hunter1909 says:

    Hunter1909 Unofficial DeathMarch™ Top Ten for 2014-19

    1 Commonfan 14 -1st 2014-15
    – 1st 2016-17

    2 HT Joe – 1st 2018-19
    – 3rd 2015-16
    – 7th 2017-18

    3 Yeti – 1st 2017-18
    – 5th 2014-15

    4 Romulus Apotheosis – 4th 2017-18
    – 7th 2018-19

    5 Younger Oil – 3rd 2014-15
    – 5th 2017-18

    6 Jake 70 – 3rd 2015-16
    – 9th 2017-18

    7 TCHO – 5th 2017-18
    – 9th 2015-16

    8 FLEA – 7th 2018-19
    – 8th 2017-18

    9 Stephen Sheps – 9th 2014-15
    – 10th 2018-19

    10 Godot 10 – 10th 2014-15
    – 10th 2018-19

    Hunter1909’s Official DeathMarch™ wants to thank the new Top Ten cavalcade of deathMarch Players, who now are going to be fonts of wisdom.

    Lowetide dual fans/fiends can feel free to check up and help get this list made before the puck drop next October.

  19. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – I will paraphrase what I had before, and just want to get it out so I can concentrate on GOILERS

    – I think Tippet is for better or worse from the Hitch or Coach tree: he’s apparently better with the players than those two, but its a D-first, get into positions, possession: status-quo. He is fine

    – Also, the sh$t show with the coaching carousel made it hard to go with anything other than the best guy on paper who wasn’t available untill he was, then we got ’em: the best we could have expected

    – I thought they should have kept Renney longer. Ralph has a short shelf, but if they brought in an x o guy to support him as planned that would have worked better for a year or 2, untill they stopped buying what he was selling. Nelson being replaced by Coach is like Tippet: it was to be expected, and you can’t blame them for going for the “best”

    – Tippet’s in his role with Seattle presumably spent a lot of time with a bird’s eye view on the league, and looking at the type of players we need: i’.e. not the superstars, but the ones on the margin on teams. So if he can use this in his role, that’s a unique proflle (different than being an ex-coach commentator for instance that gets re-hired)

    – Its all about the roster. McD and Drai will continue to get better, that helps any coach.

    – If Tippet gets 65 games + from all of the top-4 D (either the ones on the roster or their replacements), we will look back and praise him

    – We have bought a year for the development: so that should help the coach as well

    – When Hitch got hired: there was so much baloney going on in here about how he was a saviour, and taking small samples to make massive inferences. Hitch got the same out of team as Coach at the end, and don’t think there was another coach who would have done better

    – Now, with no expectations, and not having to deal with the wine-summit v Chia and a press that will give the team a pass this year, and players reading and hearing and watching the sky fall every day they should be a lot better

    – We for sure aren’t innovative with this: Feels like IBM executive blue-chip hires in an Apple, Google innovation: solid for IBM, but not to change the world. We aren’t doing innovation.

    – I hope he can have a little: “play with the hand you’ve got” approach, and not entirely “this is the way I teach hockey, so listen, or your done”

    – We have two great players: need health, some draft guys to work, and luck and who knows: if it goes bad, we can blame Holland and Tippett for being old-school. If it works out: we can applaud the genius of Holland being able to replicate Detroit elsewhere, and Tippet for being the right coach at the right time for this team.

    GOILERS

  20. Bag of Pucks says:

    hunter1909,

    Given the Oilers underperformance during those years, I’m going to recognize them as the top 10 pessimists/realists on the board as well 😏

  21. dustrock says:

    It’s a hard hire to complain about, and maybe that’s what Nicholson was looking for.

    McLellan and Hitchcock were both highly, highly experienced, and other than a perfect season in Year 2 of T-Mac and a couple of hot flashes with Hitch, they couldn’t figure it out.

    I knew we were in trouble after the success in the playoffs when McLellan said he was worried about the player attitudes in training camp. They tried to tell them the team will now have a huge target on its back and it will only get more difficult. Many of the players said after 2017-187 they didn’t realize how much more difficult it would be.

    Then we had the 2018-19 season, which was maybe the most disappointing.

    We joke about talk of “the room” and the “team culture” and it seems obvious the most important thing is to acquire good players, develop them and keep them.

    But I look at a team like Boston.

    Players like:

    Acciari
    Kuraly
    Clifton
    Grzelcyk

    are contributing in real ways. I just assume that none of these players would have an impact in Edmonton.

    Getting a guy like Tippett to grow the culture in a positive direction makes some sense.

    LT is also right that the Oilers typically employ a shit sandwich roster, with one crust the young players who are being relied upon for way too much, and the other crust some gritty bottom liner veterans, with no delicious peanut butter and bacon actual talented veteran players anywhere in the roster.

    Who was the closest to an actual impactful veteran forward in the last 5 years? Pat Maroon? Benoit Pouliot?

    It’s not just bringing in veterans: the Oilers could make Andrew Ference their captain, and he could be nominated for sainthood and it wouldn’t matter if he couldn’t play.

    Boston’s veteran players command attention because they are their best players. Tim Thomas was as crazy as shit but when he was in a zone, you just stay out of his way.

    Even on previous Bruins teams, a guy like Dr. Mark Recchi, who was near the end of his career, was as talented as hell and still could play.

    I’m not sure how Holland will be able to bring in actual skilled veteran players (especially on forward) but that’s just as much a key to me as hiring a good coach.

  22. dustrock says:

    Also, for people complaining about Tippett being another “the D have to be in position” coach, well, the Oilers are an incredibly shitty defensive team.

    The Bruins are not. The Blues are not. Same with the Sharks and Golden Knights.

    The other funny thing is, the Bruins score some nice goals. Even nice goals from their bottom 2 lines! For real!

    Playing defence correctly doesn’t preclude skill being used.

  23. flea says:

    hunter1909,

    Awesome Hunter!! I thought I might take ‘er down this year but the Oilers came up lame at the end. I didn’t realize I was so close the year before too. I do remember thinking they’d regress when everyone else was picking them as a cup contender. Crazy how quickly things change.

    I think the Tippett signing is interesting, and could work out. He’s definitely going to get a roster that will need to overperform in order to make it.

  24. Bag of Pucks says:

    Like it does for many, failure has made the Oilers safe in their decision process.

    They went unproven with Krueger, Eakins and Nelson without getting the results they wanted. Now they’re on the cycle of experienced retreads. Hopefully there will be some innovative contributions coming from the assistants as well.

    All that said, i think experienced is better than not with the modern athlete. If an older coach is a good communicator, a successful track record helps to sell the plan and ‘selling’ staff on the vision is the new reality in leadership dynamics. Gord forbid that you just get on with the work.

  25. ArmchairGM says:

    Jaxon:
    For instance, over the past 3 seasons and 138 minutes at 5v5, when Puljujarvi and McDavid were on the ice together without Draisaitl or Nugent-Hopkins, they outscored the opposition 21-10, OutCorsied them 399-324, OutFenwicked them 303-236. Out High Danger corsied them 96-65. That is McDavid’s best partner from a shots and goals percentage without the others. Not a very big sample size, but why the hell wouldn’t the coaches keep running with that?!?!

    Khaira-Draisaitl also have a similar relationship in limited minutes over 3 season and 138 minutes of 5v5 (interestingly the exact same sample size as JP & McD), not as good, but still quite good considering it was without Nuge and McD, Khaira and Draisaitl have outCorsied 176-60, OutFenwicked 135-121, OutSocred 11-9, Out High Danger Corsied 36-29. Much lower event than McDavid and Puljujarvi but still winning possession and games.

    Cool! This lines up pretty well with my findings too, I’m really hoping for a Burakovsky – McDavid – Puljujarvi 1st line because it won’t hurt McDavid’s production and it will boost the 2nd line by a factor of 3 at least.

    Just look at 29 + 93 without 97 on the ice… if Benson can find a home with those two men it means Holland’s UFA targets this summer will be of the cheap, bottom-6 variety. Which is huge because I would have a couple of expensive hard targets in free agency next summer, including (but not limited to) Hall, Pietrangelo, Kreider and Dadonov.

  26. ArmchairGM says:

    Craig Zonit:
    The hairiest of asses line. Though I think Kassian will continue to take a regular shift with McDavid.
    Caribbeerman,

    If it was up to me, I’d create a “forecheckers from hell” 4th line: Gambardella – Khaira – Kassian.

  27. dustrock says:

    ArmchairGM: If it was up to me, I’d create a “forecheckers from hell” 4th line: Gambardella – Khaira – Kassian.

    Exactly. A guy like Kuraly has an important role to play because he’s got a bit of skill and speed to burn. Can Gambardella play that kind of role?

    That’s why I like the Nygard signing. Get some bottom six guys who are all blazing fast, get that forecheck going.

  28. jake70 says:

    I like that he has been out of the coaching game for a bit. Chance to reflect on his own strengths and weaknesses as a coach – allows the ego to settle in a bit in the background.

  29. Jaxon says:

    ArmchairGM: Cool! This lines up pretty well with my findings too, I’m really hoping for a Burakovsky – McDavid– Puljujarvi 1st line because it won’t hurt McDavid’s production and it will boost the 2nd line by a factor of 3 at least.

    Just look at 29 + 93 without 97 on the ice… if Benson can find a home with those two men it means Holland’s UFA targets this summer will be of the cheap, bottom-6 variety. Which is huge because I would have a couple of expensive hard targets in free agency next summer, including (but not limited to) Hall, Pietrangelo, Kreider and Dadonov.

    Seriously. That’s the equivalent of about 10 full games together (is 14 minutes of 5v5 about right for to line?) where they outscored the opposition 21 to 10. So over 82 games they’d outscore the opposition about 172 to 82. I know that’s a huge oversimplification and, again, a small sample size, but I really can’t understand why a team wouldn’t ride that combo out until it’s proven to be an an unsustainable anomaly or proven to be their real chemistry together.

  30. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    I think having a coach and GM on the same page is a good start!
    Hasn’t happened in oil land for several years…
    Cheers from Helsinki
    On a work trip
    A very happy hockey city here at the moment 😉

  31. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Jaxon:
    For instance, over the past 3 seasons and 138 minutes at 5v5, when Puljujarvi and McDavid were on the ice together without Draisaitl or Nugent-Hopkins, they OutScored the opposition 21-10, OutCorsied them 399-324, OutFenwicked them 303-236. Out High-Danger-Corsied them 96-65. That is McDavid’s best partner from a shots and goals percentage without the others. Not a very big sample size, but why the hell wouldn’t the coaches keep running with that?!?!

    Khaira-Draisaitl also have a similar relationship in limited minutes over 3 season and 138 minutes of 5v5 (interestingly the exact same sample size as JP & McD), not as good, but still quite good considering it was without Nuge and McD, Khaira and Draisaitl have OutCorsied 176-160, OutFenwicked 135-121, OutScored 11-9, Out High-Danger-Corsied 36-29. Much lower event than McDavid and Puljujarvi but still winning possession and games.

    Let’s hope those are some of the first numbers Tippett sees

  32. russ99 says:

    Jesse’s offensive zone instincts are all wrong. Until that gets fixed with reps, I don’t care who you play him with and have his numbers zoomed, he’s not going to be a productive player.

    I’m real curious how Tippett will work with and deploy him. If everything breaks perfectly, he could be another Hanzal-style player, but there’s miles of work to get there.

    Ideally, he’d get some time out of the NHL lineup first, maybe an “extended spring training” preseason on IR with the Condors group and then an extended rehab assignment.

    I know the CBA doesn’t let him suit up and practice when on IR, but I’d still like to see how “prospect whisperer” Woodcroft can work with him on and off the ice before he comes back to play in Edmonton.

    Throwing him high up in an NHL lineup would be the worst thing you can do to him right now.

  33. LadiesloveSmid says:

    I hope they keep Pulju & bring in a good 3C.

    Don’t see one in UFA.

  34. OriginalPouzar says:

    No Bob Nicholson at the presser – Holland starts it.

    He asked Hitch to help him in the process.

    Put together a list of 17 candidates.

    Over the last few weeks, Ken and Hitch worked the phones alot, talked to a lot of managers, alot of coaches, worked their way through the list. Tippet was always A leading candidate.

  35. OriginalPouzar says:

    Talked to players that had played for Tippet as well.

    Holland says he’s big on experience.

    His team’s play with structure. Players are held accountable. Great communicator.

    Looks forward to working with Dave to build the team.

  36. Pouzar says:

    OriginalPouzar: No Bob Nicholson at the presser

    The way it should be.

  37. OriginalPouzar says:

    Tippet says Holland and he have talked about the vision and they agree – they agree on how hard you have to play. Speed. Sound defensive teams but allow the players to furnish with the puck.

  38. OriginalPouzar says:

    Stauffer asks about staff – current assistants and make-up of staff.

    Tippet wants to talk with current coaches first and hasn’t been able to do that – he does know them all.

    He will go through the process with the incumbents before he does anything.

  39. OriginalPouzar says:

    He believe the coaches responsibility is to maximize the talents of each individual no matter what their skill set is. You see what they can do and put them in a position to succeed. You’ve just go to find ways to win. “There is never an excuse for not winning” – tired, etc. is not an excuse, need to find a way.

  40. OriginalPouzar says:

    Terry Jones asks if he has a preliminary idea on how to use McDavid/Drai – together, separate, etc.:

    He does know Connor from working with him at the World Cup but doesn’t know Drai. He’s watched alot of video. He does like them together as they seem to feed off each other.

    He’s not stuck on that but he realizes they do feed off each other.

    He’ll need to see where the roster is at and go through camp of course.

  41. OriginalPouzar says:

    Gregor asked about how they will move the puck up the ice from defence:

    Tippet says there needs to be a 5-man attack, 5-man units.

    Defence have to be involved and there needs to be great support with d-partners and the forwards.

    The D have to be involved in the forecheck as well.

  42. ArmchairGM says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    I hope they keep Pulju & bring in a good 3C.

    Don’t see one in UFA.

    No, but there’s a couple of good ones available in the draft. That likely means we’ll need a 1 year stopgap until Dach / Cozens / Zegras is ready to play 3C. I’d be happy with Filppula on a 1 year contract, and I imagine Holland would be comfortable with him too.

  43. OriginalPouzar says:

    Holland is asked about building along with Tippet.

    Long-winded answer but talks about the pipeline of d-man and, again, specifically mentions Samorukov.

    Of course, he mentions need to develop the d-man.

  44. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pouzar: The way it should be.

    Man the pressers have a “different tone” with Holland/Tippett vs. Nicholson/Chiarelli

  45. Pouzar says:

    OriginalPouzar: Man the pressers have a “different tone” with Holland/Tippett vs. Nicholson/Chiarelli

    Big time.

  46. Nit64 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Man the pressers have a “different tone” with Holland/Tippett vs. Nicholson/Chiarelli

  47. Darth Tu says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Gregor asked about how they will move the puck up the ice from defence:

    Tippet says there needs to be a 5-man attack, 5-man units.

    Defence have to be involved and there needs to be great support with d-partners and the forwards.

    The D have to be involved in the forecheck as well.

    5 man attacking units, that’s music to my ears. We need to tweak that D for that to happen though, it’s never happening with Russell playing as the 2RD.

  48. OriginalPouzar says:

    Gregor asks Tippett about the use of analytics from a coaching perspective.

    Tippett said he starting doing analytics in 1995 – he had tons of data and spreadsheets.

    He says they will absolutely use the data in their preparation and practice, etc. – definitely is in favor of using analytics.

    Big one for Tippett is scoring chances for and against, different rankings of them and who was involved in them. He will make certain decisions on them.

  49. OriginalPouzar says:

    Using analytics can help maximize what a player can do.

  50. Pouzar says:

    Interesting answer on analytics. I like it although I am not worried about Tippett’s use of analytics…it’s Holland and the pro scouting staff’s use.

  51. Pescador says:

    Tippett:
    “I’ve been doing analytics for longer than you guys (media) have been talking about them”
    *swoons*
    That’s the sound of hockey nerds everywhere messing themselves

  52. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jones asks about current roster and under-performing players and how he views the bottom 6 and if he and Holland have talked about changing it.

    Holland and Tippett have spoken and both realize there needs to be some more depth and some more scoring depth. Both teams in the SCF have strong bottom 6s.

  53. Alpine says:

    I hope we keep Glen and Manny on staff. Don’t see much to get excited about with Playfair and Lamb. Lamb especially was mediocre as a WHL and AHL head coach and hasn’t been in the NHL for a long time. He would however have spent his recent years working with young players.

  54. Nit64 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Gregor asks Tippett about the use of analytics from a coaching perspective.

    Tippett said he starting doing analytics in 1995 – he had tons of data and spreadsheets.

    He says they will absolutely use the data in their preparation and practice, etc.– definitely is in favor of using analytics.

    Big one for Tippett is scoring chances for and against, different rankings of them and who was involved in them.He will make certain decisions on them.

    His example was comparing results of one old style D and one new style D and making the TOI call on results not aura.

  55. Pescador says:

    Alpine:
    I hope we keep Glen and Manny on staff. Don’t see much to get excited about with Playfair and Lamb. Lamb especially was mediocre as a WHL and AHL head coach and hasn’t been in the NHL for a long time.

    Yawney & Vivrio are the keepers
    Gulutzan still has the Cgy stink on him, not a fan of Tin Tin

  56. Nit64 says:

    Pouzar:
    Interesting answer on analytics. I like it although I am not worried about Tippett’s use of analytics…it’s Holland and the pro scouting staff’s use.

    If the coach uses it for roster decisions, it a lot easier to show procurement what they are looking for and how they should look. Imagine if Dellow had been working here for a coach who could walk the talk.

  57. OriginalPouzar says:

    He told a story about comparing two d-man and their metrics but realized that one of them spends 75% of the time in the defensive zone and the other 25% of the time and realized that the d-men spending 75% of the time in the D-zone was less valuable even if certain numbers were inflated.

    Kris Russell may be shaking right now.

  58. Bag of Pucks says:

    That definitely seemed more professional than most Oiler press conferences of late.

    Media missed an opportunity to troll Burgers by not asking Tippett if he sees Rieder as a useful bottom 6 option.

  59. Nit64 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Great communicator.

    Judging as communicators by pressers:

    Tippet > Holland > Nicholson

    Glad that isn’t the other way ’round.

  60. OriginalPouzar says:

    In a post-interview with Bob – Holland says he believes the coach needs to pick his staff, those are the guys that he will be in the trenches with. Holland says he has sign-off on the staff but the head coach needs his chemistry with his assistants. Holland will work with Tippett and, although he has sign-off, ultimately its really Tippett’s decision.

  61. ArmchairGM says:

    Darth Tu: 5 man attacking units, that’s music to my ears.We need to tweak that D for that to happen though, it’s never happening with Russell playing as the 2RD.

    I wonder if Persson might be a solution to the 2RD question. His skillset seems to compliment Nurse’s – he isn’t a burner but possesses a very good outlet pass. He plays top-pairing minutes in a league much better than the AHL, and yet his numbers are a step ahead of Jones and Bear, for instance.

    It might be worth a look in TC.

  62. OriginalPouzar says:

    Stauffer asking Holland about transitioning young d-men like Jones and Lagesson given the veterans and will there be movement:

    Holland says can’t move all in at same time (Bouchard, Lagesson, Jones). One likely, maybe more or more through the year and in to next year.

    Sekera is a very good veteran and thinks he can have the Kronwall role with respect to veteran experience to help mentor the youth.

  63. Pescador says:

    Nit64: Judgingas communicators by pressers:

    Tippet > Holland > Nicholson

    Glad that isn’t the other way ’round.

    It would be if they were selling timeshares

  64. slopitch says:

    Woogie63: This is right,
    Imagine if this team had Dubynk, Petryand Shultz right now?

    Ya but then we wouldnt have Larsson 😉

  65. Doug McLachlan says:

    dustrock,

    Dustin,

    You sound almost optimistic. Worried about you, man. Sun is out, wear a hat and keep hydrated.

  66. Alpine says:

    Oilman99,

    He meant Bouchard shouldn’t be in the top four for a couple seasons. Ideally he’s AHL for much of next season, then 3rd pairing for the next calendar year after that. His top four time should come in January of 2021 at the earliest.

  67. Ribs says:

    Here’s hoping Tippett is our Quenville!

  68. jonrmcleod says:

    Mark Spector

    Verified account

    @SportsnetSpec
    Following Following @SportsnetSpec
    More
    Some other Oilers news, can confirm that former skills/development coach Paul Coffey has parted ways with the Oilers.

  69. Nit64 says:

    jonrmcleod:
    Paul Coffey has parted ways with the Oilers.

    ~ When did he start ways? ~

  70. Durag says:

    jonrmcleod:
    Mark Spector

    Verified account

    @SportsnetSpec
    Following Following @SportsnetSpec
    More
    Some other Oilers news, can confirm that former skills/development coach Paul Coffey has parted ways with the Oilers.

    He wasn’t fired or anything, they just haven’t seen him in about a year

  71. Bag of Pucks says:

    Optimism starts seeping in and then I remember our starting goaltender has a crappy glove hand.

    Reality check cashed.

  72. Maoriduvpoojt says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    I’m happy with the Tippett signing.

    From what I’ve gleaned from his record and heard/read from those who have played for him he maximizes the roster’s strengths rather than impose a system of play on a roster regardless of the roster make up.

    Seems to shelter kids properly to bring out their best (see: first two years of Domi, Duclair etc in ARI)

    Many players have had their best offensive years with him as coach and the goals against tend to go down due to a good defensive structure.

    I’m cautiously optimistic.

    Every year, like a loyal lap dog I be all like: “In Chia we trust” and “TMac’s got this” and of course, that friggin “H-O-P-E” fairlytale.

    It’s backwards day today now baby!

    This time around, dammitalltohell…….I will say this.

    What is wrong with Katz keeping out-of-touch and IIHF-looking Nicholson at the helm? I thought our Rivervalley Batman gave 2 shits about this team. I thought he was an astute businessman who would apply the same principles of his successful businesses to this hockey club. All Bobby Nics has done is started a New Old Boy’s Club; frickin sideshow Bob surrounding himself with his fossilized buddies from his Team Canada gig….we’ve all seen how this shit show ends and I for one have dropped-kicked my rose-colored glasses in to the mighty North Sasky and will be nothing but critical and HIGHLY pessimistic from here on in….I might even be within spitting distance of the top 20 in Hunter’s 2019-20 DeathMarch for a change. Optimism shmoptimism….

    Curse you hockey Gords, CURSE YOU ALL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    pssst (I hope this works, I’ll check back with you all at this time next year and see if it worked)…..

  73. texmex says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Ha. Me too.

  74. Maoriduvpoojt says:

    Jaxon:
    For instance, over the past 3 seasons and 138 minutes at 5v5, when Puljujarvi and McDavid were on the ice together without Draisaitl or Nugent-Hopkins, they OutScored the opposition 21-10, OutCorsied them 399-324, OutFenwicked them 303-236. Out High-Danger-Corsied them 96-65. That is McDavid’s best partner from a shots and goals percentage without the others. Not a very big sample size, but why the hell wouldn’t the coaches keep running with that?!?!

    Khaira-Draisaitl also have a similar relationship in limited minutes over 3 season and 138 minutes of 5v5 (interestingly the exact same sample size as JP & McD), not as good, but still quite good considering it was without Nuge and McD, Khaira and Draisaitl have OutCorsied 176-160, OutFenwicked 135-121, OutScored 11-9, Out High-Danger-Corsied 36-29. Much lower event than McDavid and Puljujarvi but still winning possession and games.

    If you look into the numbers though, I think you’ll find that Darrell is zooming JP….

    Just kidding 🙂

  75. Jethro Tull says:

    Peeps, Hitch also said lots of the right things. Like not relying on Connor and Drai to play so many minutes and that the others have to pick up their end. That lasted approximately 3 shifts when he realized that those two are all this team has up front.

    Dave might say these things, and like Hitch, correctly identify a lot of the Oilers problems. Can he fix them? Will he be enabled to fix them? I think Hitch wasn’t…..

  76. Nit64 says:

    Pouzar:
    Soria et al told me Brossoit had a shitty glove hand too.

    $1,225,000 next season.

  77. Scungilli Slushy says:

    I’m good with Tippet. The X’s and O’s are the easy part of coaching for people at this level.

    It’s building buy in that is hard, managing people. I don’t think McL and Hitch are good at that overall. Thus better with veteran teams that don’t need babysitting.

    I also think those two demanded players conform to their ways and that lead to the collapses in play and morale we saw with many Oilers over the last few years. I didn’t see the presser, I felt that McL and Chia often seemed depressed, exhausted, and many times seemed pretty hung over. I of course don’t know, but that’s the impression I got at times.

    Holland seems more upbeat and positive. Hopefully Tippet is. You can be strong with people and still keep the atmosphere positive. Here’s hoping. We’ve seen Gallant and Trotz make hay doing that, hopefully it’s the Oilers turn.

  78. Nit64 says:

    Tippet says he tried to hire Holland, but that by the time he caught up with him it was the other way around.

  79. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Durag: He wasn’t fired or anything, they just haven’t seen him in about a year

    – Had a summer job, working for a long-distance telecom company. It was awful sweat shop but “corporate”:they paid weekly base salary and commission: a fancy sweat shop back when these firms were trying to break up the long-distance corporate market in the early 2000’s or late 1990’s

    – But a few weeks in I also got a summer job working for a bank: my first job in finance

    – I was dead broke, so started the job at the bank, and I just stopped going to the meetings at this Telco start-up, and kept getting paid for about a month, called in sick, even came into the office at lunch a few times, or on my break, to look like I was working still: untill the boss called me up and said what’s going on, my sales sucked? I pretended to be all upset that they were letting me go. That company went out of business 6 months later.

    – Me and Paul Coffey: getting checks and not showing up..

  80. dustrock says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    dustrock,

    Dustin,

    You sound almost optimistic.Worried about you, man.Sun is out, wear a hat and keep hydrated.

    I literally just went for a run and forgot my hat. Half blind from sweat in my eyes.

    I’m cautiously optimistic. I think these are safe and vanilla hires but I think Katz and Nicholson maybe just maybe learned a valuable lesson (and wasted McDavid cheap years alas).

    At the very least Holland Tippett are going to be on the same page. I don’t believe McLellan and Chia were, at least not after 16-17.

    There are way too many roster problems but it definitely could have been worse than Holland/Tippett.

    Say it was Kretzky/Nelson and it didn’t work. You’d probably give it 2 years to be sure and that would lead to a McDavid exit if it didn’t work.

  81. Darth Tu says:

    ArmchairGM: I wonder if Persson might be a solution to the 2RD question. His skillset seems to compliment Nurse’s – he isn’t a burner but possesses a very good outlet pass. He plays top-pairing minutes in a league much better than the AHL, and yet his numbers are a step ahead of Jones and Bear, for instance.

    It might be worth a look in TC.

    That would be gold, I see Persson working more as a 3rd pairing option though. The problem is the in house answer is Bouchard – but he’s young and I’d like to see him in the AHL until at least Christmas (unless he absolutely blows the doors off).

    The non-sexy solution might have been suggested above by OP. Sekera and Nurse together. Sure it puts one of them (I’d opt for Nurse) onto their off hand, however you get the good outlet pass from Sekera, and the rush options from Nurse.

  82. Pouzar says:

    Nit64: $1,225,000 next season.

    That one pisses me off. TMc tried to ruin him and almost succeeded. Jets win again.

  83. Bag of Pucks says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Wonder how much ‘red wine’ Coffey expensed?

    Does that expense equation look something like?

    Gretzky > Coffey = Lowe > Messier

  84. Nit64 says:

    On the other station Tippet says pace is up not because of faster wheels, but faster heads. Result of more skill in the game is faster puck.

  85. Munny says:

    I am neither overwhelmed or underwhelmed by this hiring.

    I am intermistic on Tippett.

    Halfway between optimistic and pessimistic.

    The presser sounds reassuring… and I do wish him all the success in the world but…

    We wait.

  86. Nit64 says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Wonder how much ‘red wine’ Coffey expensed?

    Does that expense equation look something like?

    Gretzky > Coffey = Lowe > Messier

    ~ Saved the org on travel expenses. ~

  87. ArmchairGM says:

    Darth Tu: That would be gold, I see Persson working more as a 3rd pairing option though.The problem is the in house answer is Bouchard – but he’s young and I’d like to see him in the AHL until at least Christmas (unless he absolutely blows the doors off).

    The non-sexy solution might have been suggested above by OP.Sekera and Nurse together. Sure it puts one of them (I’d opt for Nurse) onto their off hand, however you get the good outlet pass from Sekera, and the rush options from Nurse.

    That should work. I like that Tippet has options… I don’t see the team being a LOT better this year but some small changes can be made this summer to set up for the future. This year is expected to be a building year, not a contending year. By “contending” I mean pushing deep into the playoffs. Making the playoffs should still be the primary goal.

  88. Jaxon says:

    Maoriduvpoojt: If you look into the numbers though, I think you’ll find that Darrell is zooming JP….

    Just kidding

    Haha, awesome. Of course he is. Darnell zooms everyone!

  89. Bag of Pucks says:

    Nit64,

    Were you running the dotcom i worked for in the 90s?

  90. Durag says:

    Munny:
    I am neither overwhelmed or underwhelmed by this hiring.

    I am intermistic on Tippett.

    Halfway between optimistic and pessimistic.

    The presser sounds reassuring… and I do wish him all the success in the world but…

    We wait.

    That’s just the sensible state of being for an Oilers fan. There have been far too many summers of false hope to fall for it again.

  91. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Munny,

    – These departures do show I think a changing of guard in earnest…

    – I wonder what the expectations are? If the Oile did a NYI reversal next year, no one would be surprised in hindsight: healthy D, solid G, MacD and Drai bring up the rest of the team, some prospects bloom, Tippet is wicket, players aren’t in a gong show circus, no back-stabbing from dueling factions.

    – When McD was drafted, I was in the “win 1-2 Cups and make playoffs for a decade, competing against the Leafs and Tampa Nashville, etc as one of the good ones”

    – Still think that’s the outermarker in the league for any team.

    – I am prepared for any outcome next season: from build and improve to get in playoffs to really having everything click. The only thing that would surprise me would be worse points than this year.

    – That’s why this is a good short-term astute hiring, that correctly read the tea-leaves, and the org feels luck to have them both: plus you can’t really be mad at it given their track records: we wait

  92. ArmchairGM says:

    Nit64:
    On the other station Tippet says pace is up not because of faster wheels, but faster heads. Result of more skill in the game is faster puck.

    This is correct. Faster wheels helps you get to the puck when you don’t have it though. The one thing that stuck me about St Louis and Boston throughout the playoffs is the urgency and pace they play with – they seem to want it more than their opponents. Puck hounds, all.

  93. Nit64 says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Nit64,

    Were you running the dotcom i worked for in the 90s?

    LOL. For a guy who always seemed to be in TO it sure took a while for the team to find him to part ways

  94. Nit64 says:

    ArmchairGM: Faster wheels helps you get to the puck when you don’t have it though.

    Faster head too. Have to be ready to turn on a dime and go where the play will go.

  95. Jethro Tull says:

    Nit64: LOL. For a guy who always seemed to be in TO it sure took a while for the team to find him to part ways

    Kaiser………Soze!

  96. blackadder says:

    Jethro Tull
    The advantage Tippett has over our two coaches from last year is time. McLelland was coaching to keep his job, so was Hitch. Tippett is safe for the year and can make decisions based on longer term needs of the team. He might stick with lines longer and be less inclined to make in game changes on the fly because he’s not worried if he’ll be employed tomorrow, or desperate to keep the job into next year.

    I liked the Holland hiring because he has a history of surrounding himself with good people, something the Oilers as a team have failed to do for the last twenty years, really. Tippett has a good reputation but was saddled with some godawful teams in Phoenix in his last years there. Not a horrible hire, I don’t think.

  97. Reja says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Had a summer job, working for a long-distance telecom company.It was awful sweat shop but “corporate”:they paid weekly base salary and commission: a fancy sweat shop back when these firms were trying to break up the long-distance corporate market in the early 2000’s or late 1990’s

    – But a few weeks in I also got a summer job working for a bank: my first job in finance

    – I was dead broke, so started the job at the bank, and I just stopped going to the meetings at this Telco start-up, and kept getting paid for about a month, called in sick, even came into the office at lunch a few times, or on my break, to look like I was working still: untill the boss called me up and said what’s going on, my sales sucked?I pretended to be all upset that they were letting me go.That company went out of business 6 months later.

    – Me and Paul Coffey: getting checks and not showing up..

    George Costanza

  98. Jethro Tull says:

    blackadder:
    Jethro Tull
    The advantage Tippett has over our two coaches fromlast year is time.McLelland was coaching to keep his job, so was Hitch.Tippett is safe for the year and can make decisions based on longer term needs of the team.He might stick with lines longer and be less inclined to make in game changes on the fly because he’s not worried if he’ll be employed tomorrow, or desperate to keep the job into next year.

    I liked the Holland hiring because he has a history of surrounding himself with good people, something the Oilers as a team have failed to do for the last twenty years, really.Tippett has a good reputation but was saddled with some godawful teams in Phoenix in his last years there.Not a horrible hire, I don’t think.

    Ah, Captain Slackbladder! Here to join the 20 minuters?

    I think Tippett has to draw more on coaching Modano than anything else.

    The thing of it is that yes, he has had success in Arizona with a self-imposed cap team with limited talent (but were they really that bad?), but the whole point is to improve our roster. So, if we’re hiring Dave because he does well with limited resources, what does that tell us? What does that tell the best player in the world? It would mean we’re still doing it wrong, that now Dave has to show a new talent for growing with a supposedly improving roster, or we’re not going to get a better roster and Dave is here for profit maximization.

    Nelson would have been my vote – able to grow with the team. Or it’s still old dogs and new tricks.

  99. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:

    – I hope he can have a little: “play with the hand you’ve got” approach, and not entirely “this is the way I teach hockey, so listen, or your done”

    Is this not exactly what he’s shown to do? His systems and structure adapt to the roster at hand and to maximize individual and term performances.

    His Coyotes played much differently than his Stars which included multiple teams in the top 10 in the league in goals scored.

  100. Alpine says:

    Jethro Tull,

    The rest of the roster needs a coach more than McDavid does. 97 is gonna be able to do what he wants regardless of coach. The bottom and six and D corpse is where the “getting more from less” should hopefully play out under Tippett.

    On average a team is going to have less talent in their bottom six than top six. To me, that’s less about the Oilers doing things wrong and more about the realities of the salary cap. Though those two things are related because the former has done poor job managing the latter.

  101. Jethro Tull says:

    Alpine:
    Jethro Tull,

    The rest of the roster needs a coach more than McDavid does. 97 is gonna be able to do what he wants regardless of coach. The bottom and six and D corpse is where the “getting more from less” should hopefully play out under Tippett.

    On average a team is going to have less talent in their bottom six than top six. To me, that’s less about the Oilers doing things wrong and more about the realities of the salary cap. Though those two things are related because the former has done poor job managing the latter.

    That’s what I’m saying; that 97 and 29 are fine, and Tippett is also fine……..if we accept this roster isn’t going to change much in three years.

    The verbal I’m getting is that Tippett’s best virtue is getting the most out of limited skill. That’s fine if you intend to never improve the roster. I want to know what else he has in his tool kit. Or if indeed, we’re going Blue Jays and have no intention of winning, just wringing all the dollars we can out of McDavid before he’s traded.

    Tippett is the 3rd in a line of respected coaches intended to lend gravitas and experience to a troubled franchise. Who next, if this doesn’t work? The best guy that was fired last season? Now, if ever, would be the time to throw the change-up.

  102. Ben says:

    ArmchairGM: Making the playoffs should still be the primary goal.

    Disagree here. You’ll make different decisions today if your goal is playoffs tomorrow vs. multiple championships over several years.

  103. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: Cool! This lines up pretty well with my findings too, I’m really hoping for a Burakovsky – McDavid– Puljujarvi 1st line because it won’t hurt McDavid’s production and it will boost the 2nd line by a factor of 3 at least.

    Just look at 29 + 93 without 97 on the ice… if Benson can find a home with those two men it means Holland’s UFA targets this summer will be of the cheap, bottom-6 variety. Which is huge because I would have a couple of expensive hard targets in free agency next summer, including (but not limited to) Hall, Pietrangelo, Kreider and Dadonov.

    I don’t think the last paragraph rings true given there is no way to know if “Benson can find a home with those two men” until October, months after the main procurement window.

    I think the more accurate question is if Holland is willing to bet that Benson will find such a home and, if the answer to that question is “yes” then then next question will be is if the bet gets covered.

  104. dustrock says:

    Nit64:
    On the other station Tippet says pace is up not because of faster wheels, but faster heads. Result of more skill in the game is faster puck.

    Bah, McLellan said the same thing. He has shitty D-men that can’t do the transition game. Tippett will learn that quickly enough.

  105. OriginalPouzar says:

    russ99:

    Ideally, he’d get some time out of the NHL lineup first, maybe an “extended spring training” preseason on IR with the Condors group and then an extended rehab assignment.

    I know the CBA doesn’t let him suit up and practice when on IR, but I’d still like to see how “prospect whisperer” Woodcroft can work with him on and off the ice before he comes back to play in Edmonton.

    Sorry, this is not do-able.

    The only way he can go to the Condors without clearing waivers (which he wouldn’t) is after LTIR and then conditioning stint is extremely short – mandated by the CBA.

    There is no such thing as an extended rehab assignment.

  106. JJ says:

    Jaxon says:
    May 28, 2019 at 9:02 am

    “Jesse Puljujarvi. Look, I know he isn’t working out”

    Let’s slow our roll on Puljujarvi being a bust. He just turned 21 two weeks ago. My goodness. Plus, his underlying numbers and points production have been great with great linemates and against bottom 9 players. He had a decent 2nd NHL season. What lead to him taking a step back this season. That is a pretty darn important piece of information. Was it his hip? Was it being bounced around too much? Was it terrible linemates? Is it still a cultural thing or a processing the game thing? The Oilers need to figure this out and take steps to get the most out of him before they even consider washing their hands of Jesse.

    If given a chance, I think there’s a real chance he’ll make big steps this season.

    —————————————–

    Well said. He is a kid in a foreign country with a different language. Mentor and develop him.

  107. Nit64 says:

    dustrock: Bah, McLellan said the same thing.He has shitty D-men that can’t do the transition game.Tippett will learn that quickly enough.

    Bah. And many others. Not a comment that slow wheels are fine. More that more is needed to keep up with the current game.

    With the transition to a faster game proper development for good hockey processing in prospects is more important than ever. e.g. proper development of 98.

  108. Munny says:

    Tychkowski weighs in on the coaching change:

    https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/edmonton-oilers/optimism-concern-and-apathy-as-oilers-welcome-in-another-coach/wcm/27cddd44-85a4-4e3c-8d7b-c94e3197b792

    His lede:

    If it is possible for a fan base to be optimistic, uneasy and apathetic all at the same time, Tuesday might be the day.

    Sounds about right…

  109. Nit64 says:

    hunter1909:

    2 HT Joe – 1st 2018-19
    – 3rd 2015-16
    – 7th 2017-18

    4 Romulus Apotheosis – 4th 2017-18
    – 7th 2018-19

    6 Jake 70 – 3rd 2015-16
    – 9th 2017-18

    9 Stephen Sheps – 9th 2014-15
    – 10th 2018-19

    Joe tied for 2nd in 2015-16
    Rom tied for 2nd in 2017-18
    Jake tied for 2nd in 2015-16 (moves to 5th)
    Sheps tied for 7th in 2014-15

  110. Munny says:

    Gregor on 1260 has Doan at 4:20 (!) and Tippett at 5:05, if apathy isn’t your thing.

  111. OriginalPouzar says:

    With respect to Puljujarvi, as I’ve posted before, I can’t see a grade being a good idea (the value of the return wouldn’t come close to matching the potential value this kid has an Oiler) and I am proceeding on the assumption that he will be an Oiler this coming season.

    Lets not forget who the new GM is and he clearly doesn’t think just turned 21 year old high pedigree players are busts.

    The key, for me, is for Tippett to do what he said he does – do things that allow the player to maximize his game and put him in a position to succeed. Now, I don’t know exactly what line that is, but the key is consistency – he needs consistency in linemates and ice time. He needs 12 plus 5 on 5 minutes per game with a consistency of linemates.

    Given Tippett talking about the need to have some scoring depth down the lineup, if Jesse is on the 3rd line, here is hoping he isn’t playing with tweeners or grinders – i.e. not having a Josh Currie or a Colby Cave as a linemate. A Datsyuk or Filppula would be something.

  112. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pescador: Yawney & Vivrio are the keepers
    Gulutzan still has the Cgy stink on him, not a fan of Tin Tin

    Yawney is likely gone for sure, in my opinion – and the speculation is LA.

    Gully is likely to stick from the rumblings.

  113. Bag of Pucks says:

    Imagine the reaction if Tippett had said he’d be implementing a modified version of the swarm?

    You gotta know Lokomotiv will be playing that system!

  114. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: I wonder if Persson might be a solution to the 2RD question. His skillset seems to compliment Nurse’s – he isn’t a burner but possesses a very good outlet pass. He plays top-pairing minutes in a league much better than the AHL, and yet his numbers are a step ahead of Jones and Bear, for instance.

    It might be worth a look in TC.

    Whoa, the SHL is not a much better league than the AHL, in fact, its generally accepted as a lower league.

    There is debate as between the AHL and KHL for the “2nd best league in the world” but I think its fairly accepted that the SHL is below both – its 4th.

    Persson isn’t even a lock to be NHL-ready let alone top 4 ready and, even if he proves to be, they cannot go through the off-season and in to the season assuming that’s the case.

  115. jp says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    hunter1909,

    Given the Oilers underperformance during those years, I’m going to recognize them as the top 10 pessimists/realists on the board as well

    Commonfan showing his dynamic dynasty-worthy skills by correctly calling the playoff season (the only mention of 16-17 on the top 10 list). The rest are just pessimists/realists as you say. Very impressive Commonfan.

  116. YKOil says:

    Advantage: Tippett

    – first year is basically a dev year so he has space to play in
    – extra year of development for key players (Nurse, et al)
    – healthier roster than the last two years
    – more depth on defense to work with
    – a GM who doesn’t see Brandon Manning as a viable player on defense

    The goaltending could/will be an issue and I don’t expect the lack of forward depth to be fixed in one off-season but overall I am somewhere at glass half-full+.

    Another year of Chia would have driven me out of the game again I am sure.

  117. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: I wonder if Persson might be a solution to the 2RD question. His skillset seems to compliment Nurse’s – he isn’t a burner but possesses a very good outlet pass. He plays top-pairing minutes in a league much better than the AHL, and yet his numbers are a step ahead of Jones and Bear, for instance.

    It might be worth a look in TC.

    Jethro Tull: That’s what I’m saying; that 97 and 29 are fine, and Tippett is also fine……..if we accept this roster isn’t going to change much in three years.

    The verbal I’m getting is that Tippett’s best virtue is getting the most out of limited skill.That’s fine if you intend to never improve the roster.I want to know what else he has in his tool kit.Or if indeed, we’re going Blue Jays and have no intention of winning, just wringing all the dollars we can out of McDavid before he’s traded.

    Tippett is the 3rd in a line of respected coaches intended to lend gravitas and experience to a troubled franchise.Who next, if this doesn’t work?The best guy that was fired last season?Now, if ever, would be the time to throw the change-up.

    Who said or implied the roster isn’t going to change much in three years? That seems like a made-up statement to propogate preconceived narrative. If anything, the new GM has implied the exact opposite.

    If you want to know about what else is in the coach’s tool-kit except getting the most out of limited skill, I would suggest you take a look at his work in Dallas where he coached multiple iterations to be top 10 goal scoring teams in the NHL.

  118. Munny says:

    YKOil: – healthier roster than the last two years

    This remains to be seen. We have summer and TC to make it through yet. And with our luck…

  119. ArmchairGM says:

    Ben: Disagree here. You’ll make different decisions today if your goal is playoffs tomorrow vs. multiple championships over several years.

    I’m saying both goals are achievable. Its possible to aim for the playoffs this year and build a legitimate contender.

  120. Alpine says:

    Jethro Tull,

    So if he has bad players he can improve them but if he has better players he can’t improve them? If anything, it seems like improving the roster should help Tippett as it would for any other coach.

    If anything, he can do a fine job with an “improving” team, because the Coyotes literally did improve once he was hired.

    I’m not necessarily all in on this hire, I would have liked Rocky Thompson. I’m just curious about the original argument. I can agree with questioning whether or not he’s the best fit for this team. I’m a little confused about this idea that he can only do well with a certain quality of roster.

  121. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: I don’t think the last paragraph rings true given there is no way to know if “Benson can find a home with those two men” until October, months after the main procurement window.

    I think the more accurate question is if Holland is willing to bet that Benson will find such a home and, if the answer to that question is “yes” then then next question will be is if the bet gets covered.

    Nothing I wrote precludes Holland from signing another middle six left winger to a short term contract. Besides Nygard.

  122. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    He told a story about comparing two d-man and their metrics but realized that one of them spends 75% of the time in the defensive zone and the other 25% of the time and realized that the d-men spending 75% of the time in the D-zone was less valuable even if certain numbers were inflated.

    Kris Russell may be shaking right now.

    Can Russell be sent to the minors this and next year.

  123. Jethro Tull says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Who said or implied the roster isn’t going to change much in three years? That seems like a made-up statement to propogate preconceived narrative. If anything, the new GM has implied the exact opposite.

    If you want to know about what else is in the coach’s tool-kit except getting the most out of limited skill, I would suggest you take a look at his work in Dallas where he coached multiple iterations to be top 10 goal scoring teams in the NHL.

    Ah, yes. Appeal to authority. Look at his past body of work. Similar to TMac. If anything, Hitch was better. Yet they are gone…..

    Talk is cheap. Actions are louder. Nothing in Holland’s resume says “Cap Inventiveness” and nothing in Dave’s says he’s any better than the last two coaches.

    I have no problem with this. The problem I have is nothing about either says they can go where the NHL seems very obviously to be going.

  124. Jethro Tull says:

    Alpine:
    Jethro Tull,

    So if he has bad players he can improve them but if he has better players he can’t improve them? If anything, it seems like improving the roster should help Tippett as it would for any other coach.

    If anything, he can do a fine job with an “improving” team, because the Coyotes literally did improve once he was hired.

    I’m not necessarily all in on this hire, I would have liked Rocky Thompson. I’m just curious about the original argument. I can agree with questioning whether or not he’s the best fit for this team. I’m a little confused about this idea that he can only do well with a certain quality of roster.

    For me, it’s more about the philosophy: Why did we hire X and Y?

    The league is getting more complex, cap wise and faster on the ice. Can GM X deal with this? With the rise of analytics? And analytics that matter, not what his gut tells him?

    Hard match-ups against the world’s best is harder than ever and most of your D should be done in the opposing zone. Does Coach Y understand this? Can he?

    So, we either hired Holland and Tippett because we believe that they answer these questions satisfactorily, or we hired them based on things other than winning, ie; Good Hockey Men, Know Players, Will Have Them Playing The Proper Way, They Were All We Could Convince To Come Here.

  125. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: Whoa, the SHL is not a much better league than the AHL, in fact, its generally accepted as a lower league.

    There is debate as between the AHL and KHL for the “2nd best league in the world” but I think its fairly accepted that the SHL is below both – its 4th.

    Persson isn’t even a lock to be NHL-ready let alone top 4 ready and, even if he proves to be, they cannot go through the off-season and in to the season assuming that’s the case.

    All the nhle factors I’ve seen have the SHL well ahead of the AHL. Do you have anything besides vague suggestions of hearsay?

  126. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: Persson isn’t even a lock to be NHL-ready let alone top 4 ready and, even if he proves to be, they cannot go through the off-season and in to the season assuming that’s the case.

    Unless Holland makes a move he’ll have Klefbom, Nurse, Larsson, Sekera, Russell and Benning + the prospects going into camp. Nobody is suggesting anybody should assume Persson is ready for top-4 duty.

  127. Munny says:

    ArmchairGM: I’m saying both goals are achievable. Its possible to aim for the playoffs this year and build a legitimate contender.

    Good goaltending and healthier D would go a long way by themselves.

  128. Nit64 says:

    Munny: Good goaltending and healthier D would go a long way by themselves.

    Forwards working with D to move the puck would not hurt either.

  129. Oil2Oilers says:

    Regardless of coach, regardless of G.M. my summer To Do list remains the exact same as last summer;

    Get out of the Lucic and Russell anchor contacts.

    I hope it is not the same list next summer.

  130. oilfan9911 says:

    Jethro Tull: Ah, yes. Appeal to authority.Look at his past body of work.Similar to TMac.If anything, Hitch was better.Yet they are gone…..

    Talk is cheap.Actions are louder.Nothing in Holland’s resume says “Cap Inventiveness” and nothing in Dave’s says he’s any better than the last two coaches.

    I have no problem with this.The problem I have is nothing about either says they can go where the NHL seems very obviously to be going.

    You do know that Holland pioneered the back diving contracts to reduce overall cap hits right?

  131. Jaxon says:

    OriginalPouzar: Whoa, the SHL is not a much better league than the AHL, in fact, its generally accepted as a lower league.

    There is debate as between the AHL and KHL for the “2nd best league in the world” but I think its fairly accepted that the SHL is below both – its 4th.

    Persson isn’t even a lock to be NHL-ready let alone top 4 ready and, even if he proves to be, they cannot go through the off-season and in to the season assuming that’s the case.

    I mostly agree with this but I’m not certain AHL is better than SHL. I think SHL is a slightly better League but is not a better stepping stone to the NHL. I think the AHL can be closest to the NHL, yet not a better League. If that makes sense.

  132. Munny says:

    Nit64: Forwards working with D to move the puck would not hurt either.

    The Forwards bolt the zone like Costanza spotting a trashcan fire.

  133. YourboyAllan says:

    I sure hope Tippett left on a very good note with Seattle come expansion time.

  134. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar: Whoa, the SHL is not a much better league than the AHL, in fact, its generally accepted as a lower league.

    There is debate as between the AHL and KHL for the “2nd best league in the world” but I think its fairly accepted that the SHL is below both – its 4th.

    Persson isn’t even a lock to be NHL-ready let alone top 4 ready and, even if he proves to be, they cannot go through the off-season and in to the season assuming that’s the case.

    They did it with Russel.

  135. YKOil says:

    Jaxon: I mostly agree with this but I’m not certain AHL is better than SHL. I think SHL is a slightly better League but is not a better stepping stone to the NHL. I think the AHL can be closest to the NHL, yet not a better League. If that makes sense.

    Pretty much where I sit on this.

    Player development: SEL, AHL, KHL
    NHL readiness: AHL, SEL, KHL

  136. YKOil says:

    oilfan9911: You do know that Holland pioneered the back diving contracts to reduce overall cap hits right?

    I view both Holland and Tippett as being under-the-table advanced thinking plays given their history.

    Only question in my mind is whether or not they are still one-step ahead, at pace, or now slightly behind the race leaders.

    I believe them to be, at worst, at pace. This is markedly ahead of/different from Chiarelli’s ‘I’m smarter than all of you combined’ approach.

  137. ArmchairGM says:

    Jaxon: I mostly agree with this but I’m not certain AHL is better than SHL. I think SHL is a slightly better League but is not a better stepping stone to the NHL. I think the AHL can be closest to the NHL, yet not a better League. If that makes sense.

    Isn’t that what nhle is for though, to predict future NHL production? If success in the AHL was a greater predictor of success at the NHL level, shouldn’t AHL have a higher nhle factor than the SHL?

  138. YKOil says:

    I am becoming a believer that moving Lucic will be less painful than we thought and that Kassian is more valuable than we give him credit for. Some salary retention and a pick to be sure (re: moving Lucic) but that is a far cry from where we were imo (i.e. more costly than that).

    Thank-you Boston and St. Louis.

  139. Professor Q says:

    Was the Skills Coach just not working out for Paul Coffey?

    I know we never really saw any actual physical teachings or sessions or heard much of how he affected the players, but one would hope he’d be good for that sort of stuff.

    I guess, maybe not?

  140. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: I’m saying both goals are achievable. Its possible to aim for the playoffs this year and build a legitimate contender.

    Holland has been fairly clear that, yes, the roster needs improvement for this coming season and the goal is to make the playoffs, however, the ultimate goal is to build an elite team that is a consistent contender and he isn’t going to make moves that decrease the ability to meet that ultimate goal.

    He even mentioned today something along the lines of being a bubble team (didn’t use that phrase).

    Given it will be tough make material acquisitions without opening up cap space, I believe most improvements will be around the edges – creating some depth of forward with some actuall skill/scoring in the bottom 6.

    Given the ultimate goal, I think he may “pay” to move out one contract, maybe, but he isn’t going to take on too much future pain (using important prospects, high draft picks, etc. to open up space) for the short term secondary goal.

    I like it.

  141. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: Nothing I wrote precludes Holland from signing another middle six left winger to a short term contract.Besides Nygard.

    Of course note but that isn’t what your post said. Your post said that if Benson can find a home on the 2nd line, it will have an effect on what Holland does this summer.

    Holland won’t know if Benson can find a home on the 2nd line until after the summer.

    It would effect next off-season, potentially.

  142. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: Can Russell be sent to the minors this and next year.

    Not without his consent but, even if he could be, there would be almost no chance of that happening.

  143. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: Nobody is suggesting anybody should assume Persson is ready for top-4 duty.

    “I wonder if Persson might be a solution to the 2RD question.”

  144. OriginalPouzar says:

    YourboyAllan:
    I sure hope Tippett left on a very good note with Seattle come expansion time.

    Very much so:

    https://twitter.com/NHLSeattle_/status/1133467561557778432

  145. ArmchairGM says:

    Jaxon: I mostly agree with this but I’m not certain AHL is better than SHL. I think SHL is a slightly better League but is not a better stepping stone to the NHL. I think the AHL can be closest to the NHL, yet not a better League. If that makes sense.

    Isn’t that what nhle is for though, to predict future NHL production? If success in the AHL was a greater predictor of success at the NHL level, shouldn’t AHL have a higher nhle factor than the SHL?

    OriginalPouzar: “I wonder if Persson might be a solution to the 2RD question.”

    That doesn’t assume anything, dummy.

  146. gimme shelter says:

    We should make Lucic are $6 million dollar a year skills coach. He can sit up in the pressbox
    and develop from there.What ever Paul Coffey did he was invisible.Lucic could be invisible in the pressbox.

  147. Rebillled says:

    ‘Hey Burgers, great job on the last presser but you’re never doing that again.’
    “What?’
    ‘You’re fired.’
    ‘Ok…wait, can you fire me?’
    ‘Yes.’
    ‘Wait, no you can’t. Haha, good one.’
    ‘….’

    We wait.

  148. Jaxon says:

    ArmchairGM: Isn’t that what nhle is for though, to predict future NHL production? If success in the AHL was a greater predictor of success at the NHL level, shouldn’t AHL have a higher nhle factor than the SHL?

    I may not have been clear but I think we agree with each other. SHL is a better League and NHLe indicates that. SHL may or may not be a greater predictor of success at the NHL level because the games are so different mainly due to ice size, but also to a different philosophy or culture around hockey. Many to players in the SHL cannot play in the NHL as their skills don’t translate. They often need to re-learn the game in the AHL before playing in the NHL. I think being fast and being able to think fast are something that is more necessary in the AHL than the SHL as you don’t have near as much time and space as not only are the players faster but the ice is smaller. Both leagues are full of players not fast enough to make it in the NHL, but the SHL players don’t have to think as fast and that may be the stumbling block for many. Sorry, my reply is a bit all over the map as I type out loud about the topic. NHLe is good at predicting how much offense the best players in each League might bring to the NHL. Some leagues have a larger sample size than others and go deeper down each team’s lineup. SHL players generally bring more of their offense with them, but only the very best go directly to the NHL whereas many AHL players on reach team get cups of coffee in the NHL thereby watering down the results. If only a few SHL players and few AHL players made the NHL I think you’d see the AHL NHLe rise by quite a bit.

  149. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM:
    That doesn’t assume anything, dummy.

    Stay classy!

    Enjoy your off-season.

  150. OriginalPouzar says:

    gimme shelter:
    We should make Lucic are $6 million dollar a year skills coach. He can sit up in the pressbox
    and develop from there.What ever Paul Coffey did he was invisible.Lucic could be invisible in the pressbox.

    but not on the cap and not on the 23 man roster.

  151. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: Holland has been fairly clear that, yes, the roster needs improvement for this coming season and the goal is to make the playoffs, however, the ultimate goal is to build an elite team that is a consistent contender and he isn’t going to make moves that decrease the ability to meet that ultimate goal.

    He even mentioned today something along the lines of being a bubble team (didn’t use that phrase).

    Given it will be tough make material acquisitions without opening up cap space, I believe most improvements will be around the edges – creating some depth of forward with some actuall skill/scoring in the bottom 6.

    Given the ultimate goal, I think he may “pay” to move out one contract, maybe, but he isn’t going to take on too much future pain (using important prospects, high draft picks, etc. to open up space) for the short term secondary goal.

    I like it.

    I agree, it’s the right way forward.

    The Lucic contract is a long term impediment, so that’s the one to pay to go away. Every other problem contract is A) only a small problem, and B) gone in 2 years.

    What’s it going to cost? I’m looking forward to seeing how it plays out, as well as the rest of the summer moves.

  152. Munny says:

    ArmchairGM: Isn’t that what nhle is for though, to predict future NHL production? If success in the AHL was a greater predictor of success at the NHL level, shouldn’t AHL have a higher nhle factor than the SHL?

    NHLe is a somewhat flawed stat, but regardless of its actual predictive power, it doesn’t tell us whether a defenseman changing Leagues can defend in the higher League, or whether he should be 1st, 2nd, or 3rd pairing or more properly in the A,

    I certainly think the scouts have seen him good, which is important considering he’s a smaller Dman playing against men… but also in a less physical League on larger ice.

    The proof will be in the pudding… seeing him in actual NHL games, although he himself may want time to adapt, who knows?

    But some shelter would be advisable if he’s playing in the Show, and it should be pretty obvious pretty quickly, if he’s in over his head.

    He’s still young… even defenders who come up through the N. American system aren’t hitting their stride till their mid to late 20s. Not a bad bet.

  153. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: I agree, it’s the right way forward.

    The Lucic contract is a long term impediment, so that’s the one to pay to go away. Every other problem contract is A) only a small problem, and B) gone in 2 years.

    What’s it going to cost? I’m looking forward to seeing how it plays out, as well as the rest of the summer moves.

    Absolutely agree – the Lucic contract is the one and only contract to pay to dispose of. Retaining salary is one thing as it doesn’t hurt the future but buyouts need to be a non-starter and, aside from Lucic, sweeteners only contemplated if we are talking about a C prospect or equivalent type pick.

    One additional contract we, unfortunately, need to add to the list is Koskinen, but moving it isn’t an option right now – we need give it year 1 before any decisions are made on it.

  154. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: Stay classy!

    Enjoy your off-season.

    I’d enjoy it more if you stopped building straw men.

  155. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar: Absolutely agree – the Lucic contract is the one and only contract to pay to dispose of.Retaining salary is one thing as it doesn’t hurt the future but buyouts need to be a non-starter and, aside from Lucic, sweeteners only contemplated if we are talking about a C prospect or equivalent type pick.

    One additional contract we, unfortunately, need to add to the list is Koskinen, but moving it isn’t an option right now – we need give it year 1 before any decisions are made on it.

    I say the chances of 1 buyout per team next year is over 50% I would not retain 3 mil and have that on my back for 4 years would rather give sweetener or wait one more year maybe Lucic gets 17 goals next year.

  156. Buddy says:

    Ben: Disagree here. You’ll make different decisions today if your goal is playoffs tomorrow vs. multiple championships over several years.

    I wish someone had explained that to the Harvard grad.

  157. Scungilli Slushy says:

    One thing about the new coach that I don’t think we saw under the previous two is making a plan built for the players on the roster.

    Tippet has coached Rieder who is not useless. He’s coached big slow power forwards as in Doan.

    It is entirely possible that players perform better. I’m not saying Lucic will get 50 points, but maybe 30 and continue to drive possession. Maybe others bounce back some as Holland works to up team speed and skill.

    I hope they can move Lucic and Russell and use Sekera as far as he’s healthy. They have good coverage at LD so thinning the herd won’t be an issue.

    Get a solid backup, get a RD that can move and pass. Wingers if possible, but doing the first two things and having a happier harder working team will be a huge boost in itself as we saw in Tippet’s previous work and the Isles this year.

    Not Cup, but in the race hard at least.

  158. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: Absolutely agree – the Lucic contract is the one and only contract to pay to dispose of.Retaining salary is one thing as it doesn’t hurt the future but buyouts need to be a non-starter and, aside from Lucic, sweeteners only contemplated if we are talking about a C prospect or equivalent type pick.

    One additional contract we, unfortunately, need to add to the list is Koskinen, but moving it isn’t an option right now – we need give it year 1 before any decisions are made on it.

    I keep forgetting about Koskinen as a problem. The player (and his contract) certainly have the possibility of going sideways. It’s also very possible he’ll be average/good. Not a good bet to be sure, but as you say we need more time to know if it will be a problem or not.

  159. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: I say the chances of 1 buyout per team next year is over 50% I would not retain 3 mil and have that on my back for 4 years would rather give sweetener or wait one more year maybe Lucic gets 17 goals next year.

    If you are speaking about amnesty buyouts in connection with the new CBA, there is definitely a chance but far from a foregone conclusion.

    What type of asset are you willing to give up to get rid of the Lucic contract with no cap being retained? In order to get someone to take the $6M contract, I would think we are looking at a Bouchard or the 8th which are, obviously, non-starters.

    If you are thiking of a Bear level prospect, I would suggest that would do it in conjunction with $3M retainement – also a very steep price.

  160. Sunnyboy says:

    Kris Russell may be shaking right now.

    Lol, you’re dreaming.

  161. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar: If you are speaking about amnesty buyouts in connection with the new CBA, there is definitely a chance but far from a foregone conclusion.

    What type of asset are you willing to give up to get rid of the Lucic contract with no cap being retained? In order to get someone to take the $6M contract, I would think we are looking at a Bouchard or the 8th which are, obviously, non-starters.

    If you are thiking of a Bear level prospect, I would suggest that would do it in conjunction with $3M retainement – also a very steep price.

    Any possible deal would have to be after the bonus is paid July 1st I believe. Maybe yamo and next years second if not enough.maybe take back a not the friendliest contract.

  162. jtblack says:

    Durag: He wasn’t fired or anything, they just haven’t seen him in about a year

    +1

  163. JimmyV1965 says:

    Munny: The Forwards bolt the zone like Costanza spotting a trashcan fire.

    Thanks a lot. I spit out my coffee reading this. Post of the day.

  164. rickithebear says:

    Open shots are the only shots that have a chance of going in.
    If you do not exclude the closed shots.
    All shot measures are well crap.

    Mike Smith is the best HD open shot save% goalie in the league.
    Calgary is consistently one of the worst HD open shot defence in the league.

    A. stralman has been one of the best Elite HD Dmen for years.
    I stumped him before all of you knew what My HD SH Area was.
    Little own differentiating based on a Bolean 3D situational play map team, comp, zone start.

    As we see now almost 10 years later binary academic analysis is being treated like the joke it is.
    You have to have all 3 variables

    As for preventing Corsi that can actually go in.
    Russell is still one dman you want.

    Our teams problem is still the 2 open SH def nightmares Klefbom & Nurse.

    Who abandon the def of HD area. Taking our def from a standard 3-2-1
    To a 3-1-1-1

    But the GA structures really going from 2-1 to 1-1.

    A bloody nightmare.

    Nurse can be a first comp HD dman if we rain in his desire to be the rover in a 3-1 forward system.

    Only one rover in a Tippett system.

    Love when Tippett demands the NZ trap.
    One of the highest WIN% actions when it comes to preventing Z entry & ultimately GA.

    I have started to apply SOE action by position mapping to NFL sys schematics.
    Discovering that a high drive Efficiency driven by 3RB system yields the highest playoff game success @ 84% of the time.
    Is counter to current football belief. Except teams like NWE

    Just like the Off dman ( rover) Scoring like a 4 th line forward & an Open HD SH nightmare.
    Is hard to accept for most people.
    Largely due to them not differentiating between shots that have 0% chance of going in and shots that require movement by goalie to stop the puck directed in open space in net elevation.

    Sat next to a guy early in season with a real cool flames jacket at Tom Baker Cancer Center.
    Asked if it was an Org Jacket.
    As soon as Ken King started to speak, I said “ you are Ken King”

    Stated I had developed a collection of Hockey based theories.
    Like HD SH theory that his Analytics department likely used.
    He stated “ We are currently Happy with our analytics team”
    I stated “your team is built to win in reg season.”
    I stated “his team had a major flaw that was counter to my cup roster core theory.”
    My name was called to go in for bags of IV treatment.
    Stood up and looked at him.
    “ You can ask for Rickithebear in the bone marrow clinic after the playoffs if you want to win”
    Went in but came out to use a bathroom out in area.
    King was gone.

    But a guy sitting near said he turned to look at me when I first went in.

    HD open SH Defence 2-1 in HD area partnered with a forward run NZ trap is the critical driver of elite GA success.
    Which is the highest win % mechanism for Cup & Conf Championship success.
    Calgaryhas brutal open HD SH Dmen

    Started looking at prospects available in the draft who were 16 yr old July 1 2018 and add an extra year to slide rule, plus an extra year before age 27 compared to rest of players in draft.
    looking for potential 30 G scorers based on age NHLE (which I have pushed since 07-08)

    Age NHLE
    Bobby brink (.703) 33G 31A 64P
    Alex Beaucage (.715) 33G 34A 67P
    Nicholas Robertson (.747) 33G 34A 67P
    Philip Tomisino (.717) 32G 36A 68P
    Blake Murray (.701) 28G 19A 47P

    2 of these plus
    Arthur kailyev June birth (.695) 43G 43A 86 P

  165. JimmyV1965 says:

    YKOil:
    I am becoming a believer that moving Lucic will be less painful than we thought and that Kassian is more valuable than we give him credit for.Some salary retention and a pick to be sure (re: moving Lucic) but that is a far cry from where we were imo (i.e. more costly than that).

    Thank-you Boston and St. Louis.

    We keep hearing people talking about trading Nurse because he’s at peak value, IMO it’s Kassian we should be looking at. He would have tremendous value on the trade market right now. I’m sure a team like Tampa would be very very interested in adding a player with functional toughness with a low cap hit. Add a small sweetener and it might get you JT Miller.

  166. godot10 says:

    gimme shelter:
    We should make Lucic are $6 million dollar a year skills coach. He can sit up in the pressbox
    and develop from there.What ever Paul Coffey did he was invisible.Lucic could be invisible in the pressbox.

    There are rules against cap contravention.

  167. Maoriduvpoojt says:

    rickithebear,

    Ricki,

    That is pretty cool!

    Which players did you identify from 07-08 to 18-19?

    I don’t recall ever reading a post where you mentioned Forwards, I thought you were all about D-men and G-Men…..

    This is very interesting to me, hopefully you feel up to sharing this info with us.

    Take care and all the best to you sir!!

  168. hunter1909 says:

    Nit64: Joe tied for 2nd in 2015-16
    Rom tied for 2nd in 2017-18
    Jake tied for 2nd in 2015-16 (moves to 5th)
    Sheps tied for 7th in 2014-15

  169. hunter1909 says:

    Cheers Nit64.

    Will repost the new updated unofficial list tomorrow; hopefully by that time all of this silly new coach chatter will have died down.

  170. leadfarmer says:

    rickithebear,

    But you were the only person in the world in favor of the manning trade

  171. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: Any possible deal would have to be after the bonus is paid July 1st I believe. Maybe yamo and next years second if not enough.maybe take back a not the friendliest contract.

    So, we have to give up a solid 1st round pick prospect that just finished his rookie pro season and a 2nd round pick and take back a bad contract (which is similar to retaining as it reduces the cap space we are creating)? That is a lot of “pain” to get rid of Lucic.

    P.S. the Oilers last two second round picks have been Ryan McLeod and Tyler Benson – not a nominal asset.

  172. OriginalPouzar says:

    rickithebear:

    Sat next to a guy early in season with a real cool flames jacket at Tom Baker Cancer Center.
    Asked if it was an Org Jacket.
    As soon as Ken King started to speak, I said “ you are Ken King”

    We were able to get Ken King to speak a financial services symposium I helped organize at the firm a few years back and one of my partners has actually developed a decently close relationship with King (not buddies but ability to text and get a response). Anyways, I mentioned a number of months back that Ken was quite sick with cancer – I hope his treatment is going well, and of course, your as well RTB.

  173. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: There are rules against cap contravention.

    There is no cap circumvention there – he is just describing a healthy scratch essentially. Full cap hit. Full placement on the 23 man roster.

    If he’s positing that Lucic is not on the roster/cap, well, that is not possible aside from filing official retirement papers.

  174. ArmchairGM says:

    Getting out from under the Lucic contract would be great, but it’s a luxury, not a necessity. And I’m not sure we can afford such luxury at this point. There are myriad ways to build a competitive team with Lucic on the 23 man roster.

  175. ArmchairGM says:

    rickithebear,

    Hey Ricki, good to hear from you again! Keep strong!

  176. defmn says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Getting out from under the Lucic contract would be great,but it’s a luxury, not a necessity. And I’m not sure we can afford such luxury at this point. There are myriad ways to build a competitive team with Lucic on the 23 man roster.

    Agreed.

    Anybody who goes to Cap Friendly and looks at the list of names under ‘Popular Buyouts’ can see the contracts listed are pretty much as bad as the Lucic contract and the team name beside them indicates that they still made the playoffs. It would be nice to get more value for that $6 mil but he isn’t why we didn’t make the playoffs.

  177. Lowetide says:

    For The Athletic: Analyzing the Oilers roster to see which players fit Dave Tippett’s ‘aggressive, fast team’ approach

    https://theathletic.com/998959/2019/05/29/lowetide-analyzing-the-oilers-roster-to-see-which-players-fit-dave-tippetts-aggressive-fast-team-approach/

  178. Minister D- says:

    Joe G. extended, 2 years (nhl.com)

  179. Roughneck says:

    Sure glad they updated us on the McDavid injury. HOF journalism at its best. Lets scrum around and ask inane questions about nuthin.

    What a gig.

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