Mustang Sally

The Edmonton Oilers shopped the (available) world for secondary scoring one year ago, finally uncovering some offense via a trade with the Vancouver Canucks. Samwise has a handsome contract and that makes his situation complicated. Does he bring enough to the bottom six to stick around, despite the cost?

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group. INSANE OFFER IS HERE!

  • New Lowetide: NHL Combine brings Oilers dual problems into focus for Ken Holland
  • New Lowetide: Analyzing the Oilers roster to see which players fit Dave Tippett’s ‘aggressive, fast team’ approach
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Dave Tippett’s coaching philosophy, how he relays information to his players and why information is king
  • Lowetide: What will Ken Holland see in Evan Bouchard?
  • Lowetide: Does Oilers’ signing of Joakim Nygard signal a measured approach to summer 2019?
  • Lowetide: Dave Tippett’s roster deployment in Arizona and what it might mean for the Oilers
  • Jonathan Willis: Why Ken Holland’s worst years in Detroit tell us the most about how he’ll fare in Edmonton
  • Jonathan Willis: Three offseason scenarios and how each one would affect the Oilers salary cap
  • Lowetide: Examining the Oilers’ goaltending options in free agency.
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s Oilers could go the high octane procurement route but will need a driver
  • Lowetide: How much can Connor Brown help the Oilers?
  • Lowetide: Dmitri Samorukov is off to the Memorial Cup and is the Oilers’ fastest rising prospect
  • Jonathan Willis: Craig MacTavish leaves the Oilers, signalling the first major front office change under Ken Holland
  • Lowetide: What kind of coach should Ken Holland hire for the Oilers?
  • Jonathan Willis: Every Oilers AHL prospect, rated by how close they are to the NHL
  • Jonathan Willis: A resurgent Andrej Sekera gives the Oilers much-needed defensive options
  • Lowetide: Is Joe Gambardella destined to become the Oilers’ next Fernando Pisani?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Protector, supporter, confidant: Connor McDavid’s mom, Kelly, is his off-ice rock through good times and bad
  • Lowetide: An offseason plan for Ken Holland to remodel the Oilers roster.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland steadfast that buck stops with him as new Oilers GM.
  • Lowetide: How will Ken Holland proceed in Year 1 as Oilers general manager?
  • Jonathan Willis: What does the arrival of Ken Holland mean for the Oilers coaching search?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Prioritizing the roster issues that await Ken Holland in Edmonton.
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s procurement list for his rumored move to Edmonton will include front-office personnel
  • Jonathan Willis: A Milan Lucic trade is at the top of the to-do list for the Oilers’ next GM.

SAM GAGNER

Yesterday we looked at Jujhar Khaira and decided he was worthy of returning in 2019-20 inside the bottom-six forwards. Today it’s Sam Gagner. We are looking for players who can: PK, score at 5-on-5, play more than one position, forecheck, win battles and play with an edge. 

Gagner can score at 5-on-5, his 1.62 total last season for two teams has him close to second-line production (there are 186 forwards at any given time who are top-six, Gagner was No. 196 at 5-on-5 points per 60. He’s a bona fide scorer in the discipline). Gags can also score on the power play, a luxury for a bottom-six forward.

Gagner is not a great center, but his faceoff percentage suggests he might be able to help on strong-side faceoffs. He remains a fine passer and has great vision.

At $3.15 million he is overpriced for the role he’ll play, but I think the offensive element he brings makes Sam a worthwhile roster player. A buyout saves $2.1 million this coming season. My vote is to keep him. You?

NIKITA ZAITSEV

His contract is a major stumbling block, but also an opportunity. If the Oilers could send Kris Russell to Toronto and take on Zaitsev’s deal with no retention, surely an attractive piece would also slide west? Zaitsev’s contract is $4.5 million times five more years, so the Oilers are a goner (they can’t take on that kind of cap for so many years), especially considering Bouchard and others are on the way. So, it’s a no-go for Edmonton. Just for kicks, what does Zaitsev look like using the Puck IQ numbers?

He doesn’t bring much offense, but did have a strong PP campaign in 2016-17. Moves the puck well, skates well, never skated under 20 minutes per game in any season. Here are the Leafs numbers from a year ago:

This is sorted by DFF Rel, Zaitsev struggled in the role this season but still played more (as a percentage) than anyone but Rielly. Toronto’s left side (assuming it is Rielly, Muzzin and Dermott) looks damned good. To bring it back to Edmonton, in terms of minutes versus elites and DFF% Rel, Zaitsev is a reasonable match for Adam Larsson’s season:

JAY WOODCROFT

Every day that passes without an announcement that Jay Woodcroft will return to Bakersfield is another nail in my heart. I’m going to suggest close to 10 prospects spiked under Woodcroft in his one Condors season, heaven help the poor bastard who has to follow him.

A coach with Dave Tippett’s resume is going to have a long list of people who he knows, we’ve heard Hakstol and Lamb as candidates before. It’s uncertain when we’ll finally get the news but with the draft and free agency ahead, suspect it can wait until summer.

HERE COMES THE SUN

My list is complete, I promised a top 100 but there are 120 names on my final list. The USHL and WHL dominate, a rare off year for the OHL but still plenty of talent from the Ontario league. It’ll be up tomorrow morning (I always publish final final June 1) and there’s a mock draft included with reasons for selections. One thing we don’t know: How much influence Ken Holland will have on the final selections.

I like Noel Hoefenmayer from this list, he’s a player my numbers liked in his draft year. I also like Jocktan Chainey, mostly because you can substitute his name for the title in this song.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260, we kickstart the weekend under blue skies and sunshine! I promise never to take either for granted again. At 10:20, Steve Lansky joins us from BigMouthSports to talk Raptors and SCF. At 10:45, Frank Seravalli will be live with his weekly segment, SCF, Oilers way forward and trade rumors. Matt Iwanyk talks Raptors, CFL and how he can help you be a better you, at 11:05! 10-1260 text @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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130 Responses to "Mustang Sally"

  1. Jethro Tull says:

    “Well, having a bunch of Ryans didn’t work. How about we get some Daves?”

  2. OilersFuture says:

    Could the Oiler’s run Gagner as a soft minutes offensive line with the kids? I think it was Woodyguy who mentioned that perhaps Sammy could play in a bottom six center role.

    The last time that Gagner played center semi-regularly was with CBJ. Gagner formed a line with Sedlak & Hartnell. Sedlak & Gagner split time at center from what I could see. Their CF%As a line in 58 GP they had 53.91% CF & 66.67 GF% in over 280 (5on5) minutes played together per natural statrick.

    If Gagner could be the vet presence between Benson and Puljujarvi and matched up against 3rd/4th lines.
    If sheltered they could generate enough offense to hide their probable defensive mistakes.
    This could be the double shift line for Drai, McDavid & Nuge for line matching. Which would also benefit Benson & JP some time with the big boys.

  3. Reja says:

    Never is there any mention of the Goaltending coach all three Talbot Kosh Brossoit down on their knees way to often (is it coached) all three get beat up high both sides at high rates when between the pipes for the Oil. It’s like the goaltending coach has diplomatic immunity where his techniques and name can and will never be mentioned.

  4. OriginalPouzar says:

    There should be no buyouts of any player in my opinion. Lets not extend term with dead cap hits.

    Also, saving $2.1M but then needing to replace a middle six player – there will be no ultimate cost savings.

    Sam’s 5 on 5 scoring rate surprised me and I note its increased to 1.76 P/60 as an Oiler – his most common linemate was Nuge but then Cave, Reider, Lucic, Khaira.

    I know he is slow but there is a chance he can fill in as a top 6 RW for stints – he produced as 2nd line rates with some bottom 6 linemates.

    He loves being an Oiler and “wants to be here”.

    He’s got offensive IQ and can play on the PP.

    He’s got his flaws and is likely a bit overpaid but he’s a keeper for now and there is a chance he actually provides value for that contract.

  5. OriginalPouzar says:

    LT, I got worried when you started talking about Zaitsev as an opportunity but then you basically laid out my thoughts

    I honestly don’t know if he is better than Russell or not or more able to handle the Oilers 2RD spot. What I do know is that he’s another player with a bloated contract that underperforms his cap hit which is the exact opposite of what this team needs. Now Russell is the same so swapping these types of contracts could have merit but 5 years makes it a non-starter. It makes it a non-starter even when not taking in to account the player would very likely be passed by multiple players in the next few years.

  6. YKOil says:

    Jethro Tull:
    “Well, having a bunch of Ryans didn’t work. How about we get some Daves?”

    These are the Daves I know I know…

  7. Optimism is like heroin says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    LT, I got worried when you started talking aboutZaitsev as an opportunity but then you basically laid out my thoughts

    I honestly don’t know if he is better than Russell or not or more able to handle the Oilers 2RD spot.What I do know is that he’s another player with a bloated contract that underperforms his cap hit which is the exact opposite of what this team needs.Now Russell is the same so swapping these types of contracts could have merit but 5 years makes it a non-starter. It makes it a non-starter even when not taking in to account the player would very likely be passed by multiple players in the next few years.

    and if the sweetner for this deal was Kappanen? Does that make it more palatable?

  8. OriginalPouzar says:

    Every day there is no announcement on Woody is also a day that he isn’t announced as heading back to LA which is a good thing.

    I think he’ll be back in Bakersfield and Yawney will be joining T-Mac in LA.

  9. YKOil says:

    If you are paying $3m a year for Zaitsev, running him 2nd pair and he is playing with someone who complements his play… then you are doing okay.

    To be locked in for a whack of years, paying more than you should on each one and STILL looking for someone he can play with… nope.

    Even were I running a team light on d-men with loads of Cap to spare, I wouldn’t be offering more than a 3rd rounder for Zaitsev.

  10. Greenberg says:

    If we picked up Zaitzev, the Leafs fans wouldn’t stop laughing at us for years. Last season it was a battle between him (results for dollars spent) and Hainsey (so slow and old) every game to see which one had the worse review.

  11. dustrock says:

    ALL YOU WANT TO DO IS RIDE AROUND SALLY, RIDE, SALLY, RIDE

  12. JJS says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    There should be no buyouts of any player in my opinion.Lets not extend term with dead cap hits.

    Also, saving $2.1M but then needing to replace a middle six player – there will be no ultimate cost savings.

    Sam’s 5 on 5 scoring rate surprised me and I note its increased to 1.76 P/60 as an Oiler – his most common linemate was Nuge but then Cave, Reider, Lucic, Khaira.

    I know he is slow but there is a chance he can fill in as a top 6 RW for stints – he produced as 2nd line rates with some bottom 6 linemates.

    He loves being an Oiler and “wants to be here”.

    He’s got offensive IQ and can play on the PP.

    He’s got his flaws and is likely a bit overpaid but he’s a keeper for now and there is a chance he actually provides value for that contract.

    It works if the talent coming in exceeds the talent being bought out and the money is similar over the term of the buy out.

    If there is a player that brings considerably more to the table than Samwise, and can be acquired for a lower cap hit (i.e. the combined hit of buyout and new contract are somewhat equal), it absolutely makes sense.

    Also, if the new talent has room to grow with the team, make the deal.

    Despite being a decent fit for the time being, Sam will likely not be part of the team past this season.

    But otherwise, I agree with your comments

  13. John Chambers says:

    How good is Zaitsev?

    Should we have traded Taylor Hall for him?

  14. Yeti says:

    When you gonna slow your Jocktan down?

  15. oilersfan says:

    What if the leafs retained half in Zaitsev would he be a decent second pair then?

  16. texmex says:

    I’ll puke if LA help the LEafs get out of cap trouble.

    Pierre LeBrun
    @PierreVLeBrun
    ·
    8m
    Hearing the Leafs and Kings have talked about a potential Patrick Marleau trade. Obviously there’s the Todd McLellan connection there for Marleau so he might waive. But as of now I don’t think the two teams have found a fit. Kings would need to unload a contract or two as well…

  17. Hankster says:

    That’s not enough considering how much is being talked about Zaitsev. Hall + Ebs might get you Zaitsev and Brown who can apparently walk on water.

    The teams that the Oilers should target are Winnipeg, Tampa and Vegas given their need to fit in their upcoming signings. Ehlers, Miller, etc are players who can actually help this team. Granted have to clear some cap space.

    I’m more interested to see where Karlson and Duchene lands as their destined teams might need to move some of their players.

    Summer’s almost here so what else is there to ground hog day us…

    John Chambers:
    How good is Zaitsev?

    Should we have traded Taylor Hall for him?

  18. Rondo says:

    If Hughes, Kakko, Byram, Turcotte, Cozens, and Dach are gone, who will Oilers pick at # 8?

    Off the board picks at #8 Newhook Broberg

  19. Death By Misadventure says:

    Rondo:
    Hughes,Kakko, Byram, Turcotte, Cozens, and Dach are gone who will Oilers pick at # 8?

    Krebs

  20. incubo_nero says:

    texmex:
    I’ll puke if LA help the LEafs get out of cap trouble.

    Pierre LeBrun
    @PierreVLeBrun
    ·
    8m
    Hearing the Leafs and Kings have talked about a potential Patrick Marleau trade. Obviously there’s the Todd McLellan connection there for Marleau so he might waive. But as of now I don’t think the two teams have found a fit. Kings would need to unload a contract or two as well…

    Maybe Toffoli shakes loose but he might just be the piece going the other way

  21. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    OilersFuture,

    – I really think that counting on Sam for anything next year is a lot.

    – He was out of Hockey: and because of his pedigree (2nd generation player), and by all accounts just an awesome dude, Vancouver did him a favor and lent him to the Marlies so he could be close to his family. He’s too slow, doesn’t have a shot, gets moved off the puck.

    – He’s had a few second opinions. So I cheer for him, but he’s just an another expensive vet who got his final contract that he deserves good for him.

    – The most likely scenario by far is what has happened to him last few years and teams: he will get every chance to start given his contract, and just being an awesome guy that coaches and teammates like, but he will get passed by other players who do more, and will be sent down.

    – It’s really hard to acquire replacement hockey players: Gagner hasn’t been one for a few years…

  22. GMB3 says:

    What would you guys be willing to give up to get Jason Zucker from Minnesota?

  23. Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR says:

    It’s only one more year for Gagner. You can play him all over the lineup. He’s a veteran. Decent PP guy. Why buy him out and then need to replace him for less than a million to make it feasable? Just keep him, and maybe flip him at the trade deadline for even a 4th or 5th round pick? Better than having him on the cap for around a million for the next 2 years to not play for us.

    I suspect if Chia was still here, he’d get bought out. Hopefully Holland thinks about how transactions affect the team in the present and down the road.

  24. Bag of Pucks says:

    Death By Misadventure: Krebs

    Dick Panik & Krebs? I’d avoid that locker room.

  25. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR,

    – Yeah buying him out is crazy-talk (unless you want to get into playoffs at all cost, and think you can do more with the savings short-term and accept a lower DCF on future cap

    – Let him play some games in the bigs, be a good presence in locker, get surpassed by the Marody’s, Jars, Benson or not: that’s how good hockey teams work.

  26. silasbengtsson says:

    GMB3,

    2020 1st, Puljujarvi and maybe try to toss some salary in there. Given how much other teams seem to be offering (Bennet & Frolik), I could maybe start lower, but I’d be willing to work my way up to around there.

  27. gimme shelter says:

    I did a scan of those drafted players that needed to be signed. I checked Detroit because that is where ken is from. 2017 must have been a bad year. Two 3rd picks were not signed. I do not know a lot of these players but I will throw out my general rule. Players from rounds 5-7 that are not signed,O.K the scouts made a mistake. You notice that is where the majority are.But when you are at round three and you miss,something else is the problem.Pittsburgh missed with a round 2 .That could be a one time thing. I am not basing this on any scientific,stats or whatever. It just does not look good.

  28. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Rondo:
    If Hughes,Kakko, Byram, Turcotte, Cozens, and Dach are gone, who will Oilers pick at # 8?

    Zegras

  29. dustrock says:

    Rondo:
    If Hughes,Kakko, Byram, Turcotte, Cozens, and Dach are gone, who will Oilers pick at # 8?

    Probably Krebs.

    Although with Holland aboard, could be Zegras or Caufield.

  30. texmex says:

    Jason Gregor
    @JasonGregor
    ·
    39s
    The #Oilers have parted ways with assistant coaches Trent Yawney and Manny Vivieros.

  31. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    texmex:
    Jason Gregor
    @JasonGregor
    ·
    39s
    The #Oilers have parted ways with assistant coaches Trent Yawney and Manny Vivieros.

    – I just went onto the Oil web site: the extent of authority being explicitly laid out made me laugh: Just in case anyone was wondering, they mean bidness now: “Holland will oversee all hockey operations for the Edmonton Oilers with full autonomy, reporting directly to OEG CEO Bob Nicholson.

    – We are talking Full.

  32. CrazyCoach says:

    Jethro Tull:
    “Well, having a bunch of Ryans didn’t work. How about we get some Daves?”

    Then we can revive this classic ditty! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8nvzEqsZIGo

  33. digger50 says:

    Rondo:
    If Hughes,Kakko, Byram, Turcotte, Cozens, and Dach are gone, who will Oilers pick at # 8?

    I would package the #8 expansion exempt draft pick plus proven third pair RD Benning, put a bow around them and go shopping.

    Cap team that wants asset out, and a decent low cost defenceman.

    That should be reasonable Kapenen trade.

  34. CrazyCoach says:

    texmex: The #Oilers have parted ways with assistant coaches Trent Yawney and Manny Vivieros.

    I think it was inevitable. The new head coach will want his own guys, so I wouldn’t be surprised if more changes are coming.

    Question is, who replaces those guys? I’ve heard Dave Hakstol, Mark Lamb, and Jimmy Playfair as names tossed around.

  35. digger50 says:

    The young d men are coming
    Some young wingers are coming

    The depth will arrive and can be subsidized with value veterans.

    But no goalie so assets have to go towards a goalie.

    And we need to boost the core. Yes we could use a #8 in the pipeline, but we need a talented 22 year old top line player today. This thing can be turned around in a hurry.

  36. GMB3 says:

    silasbengtsson:
    GMB3,

    2020 1st, Puljujarvi and maybe try to toss some salary in there. Given how much other teams seem to be offering (Bennet & Frolik), I could maybe start lower, but I’d be willing to work my way up to around there.

    </blockquote
    He would be a material add to the roster. I was thinking JP out, but I’m not sure if that’s enough to get it done.

    For whatever JP turns into as a player, Zucker would make the team immediately more competitive and his fancy stats suggest he creates a lot of opportunities in the offensive zone and has some solid defensive numbers too.

  37. texmex says:

    Jason Gregor
    @JasonGregor
    ·
    47s
    Also hearing Jay Woodcroft will stay in Bakersfield. He really enjoyed being a HC and running the bench. #Oilers

  38. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    texmex:
    Jason Gregor
    @JasonGregor
    ·
    47s
    Also hearing Jay Woodcroft will stay in Bakersfield. He really enjoyed being a HC and running the bench. #Oilers

    – I wonder if the 3 years to Tippet is a “nod” to Woodcroft having the opportunity to be head coach someday? Wouldnt’ that be something….

  39. Oilman99 says:

    Optimism is like heroin: and if the sweetner for this deal was Kappanen?Does that make it more palatable?

    Zaitsev’s contract size and tenure make him a non-issue. The team is in enough cap-hell already, plus they are going to need the room to resign Nurse next year. The team has a resource of young d-men to draw on with as good or better abilities at a fraction of the price.

  40. who says:

    Okay.. Back to ways to dispose of Lucic.
    Let’s just say you had 2 options to move him.
    Option 1 is to package him with one, or even two, of Benning/Bear/Lagesson. You retain 3 million on Lucic and get back a 7th round pick.
    Option 2 is to package him with Caleb Jones. You retain nothing on Lucic and get back a 7th round pick.
    Which option do you prefer?

  41. CrazyCoach says:

    who: Option 1 is to package him with one, or even two, of Benning/Bear/Lagesson. You retain 3 million on Lucic and get back a 7th round pick.
    Option 2 is to package him with Caleb Jones. You retain nothing on Lucic and get back a 7th round pick.
    Which option do you prefer?

    I think I would go for option 1 with Benning.

    The upside on Jones is tremendous.

  42. Nit64 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – I just went onto the Oil web site

    Comparing the coach/mgmt page to last fall:

    OUT: chia. mact, sutter, tmc, yawney, viveros

    IN: holland, tippet, hitchcock (advisor). No analytics guy added yet at this level.

    STILL THERE: kretzky, scott, howson, green, gulutzan plus goalie, video and skating coaches.

  43. who says:

    CrazyCoach: I think I would go for option 1 with Benning.

    The upside on Jones is tremendous.

    Fair enough. Do you think either scenario is realistic?
    My reasoning on Jones is that maybe Samarukov will be just as good. And you have 2 veteran lefties in Sekera and Russell to hold the fort until Samarukov gets to where Jones is now.

  44. LadiesloveSmid says:

    GMB3:
    What would you guys be willing to give up to get Jason Zucker from Minnesota?

    Need to shed some cap but Pulju or Yamamoto +

  45. OriginalPouzar says:

    It was basically a foregone conclusion that (a) Yawney was going to head to LA to join McLellan and (b) Gully was going to stick around.

    Viverios was a bit of an unknown, I was hoping he would stay and be given a real role this coming season but its not surprising that he is moving on.

    I am hopeful that Yawney to LA (assuming it does happen) helps keep Woodcroft in Bakersfield – still worried about him heading to LA

  46. Nit64 says:

    another departure yesterday on the communication side:

    https://edmontonsun.com/sports/hockey/nhl/edmonton-oilers/jones-oilers-all-star-broadcast-director-moving-on-after-decades-working-with-nhl-club

    Friedman joked today about Staufer’s cushy job. Staufer joked about it potentially being available.

  47. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OilersFuture:
    Could the Oiler’s run Gagner as a soft minutes offensive line with the kids?I think it was Woodyguy who mentioned that perhaps Sammy could play in a bottom six center role.

    The last time that Gagner played center semi-regularly was with CBJ.Gagner formed a line with Sedlak & Hartnell.Sedlak & Gagner split time at center from what I could see.Their CF%As a line in 58 GP they had 53.91% CF & 66.67 GF% in over 280 (5on5) minutesplayed together per natural statrick.

    If Gagner could be the vet presence between Benson and Puljujarvi and matched up against 3rd/4th lines.
    If sheltered they could generate enough offense to hide their probable defensive mistakes.
    This could be the double shift line for Drai, McDavid & Nuge for line matching.Which would also benefit Benson & JP some time with the big boys.

    Somebody has to be able to defend properly. Gagner’s strength is his offensive ability. He’s a below average skater, on the smaller side, non-physical, not great on the boards, not great at faceoffs, and he’s not consistent defensively, all of which are why he almost lost his career.

    Strong teams don’t have a weak bottom 6 anymore. Gagner with solid experienced wingers as he had in Columbus might work, or a solid centre and he plays RW. With a rookie and a struggling young guy they wouldn’t last long as a line IMO.

    They should have kept Strome. He is exactly what they need, a capable 3 RC. He probably could carry Benson and JP.

  48. Rich M says:

    texmex:
    Jason Gregor
    @JasonGregor
    ·
    47s
    Also hearing Jay Woodcroft will stay in Bakersfield. He really enjoyed being a HC and running the bench. #Oilers

    This is good news.

  49. OriginalPouzar says:

    Haven’t read through the comments yet so this may be old news but Gregor is reporting that Woody will be staying in Bakersfield – he enjoyed being a head coach and running the bench.

  50. Munny says:

    texmex:
    Jason Gregor
    @JasonGregor
    ·
    47s
    Also hearing Jay Woodcroft will stay in Bakersfield. He really enjoyed being a HC and running the bench. #Oilers

    Great news!

  51. buck yoakam says:

    I would guess that hitch might have had some influence on the assistants also…

  52. ArmchairGM says:

    Rondo:
    If Hughes,Kakko, Byram, Turcotte, Cozens, and Dach are gone, who will Oilers pick at # 8?

    Broberg.

  53. ArmchairGM says:

    who:
    Okay.. Back to ways to dispose of Lucic.
    Let’s just say you had 2 options to move him.
    Option 1 is to package him with one, or even two, of Benning/Bear/Lagesson. You retain 3 million on Lucic and get back a 7thround pick.
    Option 2 is to package him with Caleb Jones. You retain nothing on Lucic and get back a 7th round pick.
    Which option do you prefer?

    Why do people think Jones is worth twice – or four times – what Bear is worth?

    Bear + Lagesson + $3M is equal to just Jones in your opinion??

  54. ArmchairGM says:

    who: Okay.. Back to ways to dispose of Lucic.

    My model keeps Lucic as the cost to dispose is too great*. Maybe there will be a compliance buyout (enough teams need one) or maybe the cost to convince Seattle to take him will be palatable, but I think he’s staying for the next 2 years at least.

    * We don’t actually know what the market is, but that’s my sense of it.

  55. pts2pndr says:

    who:
    Okay.. Back to ways to dispose of Lucic.
    Let’s just say you had 2 options to move him.
    Option 1 is to package him with one, or even two, of Benning/Bear/Lagesson. You retain 3 million on Lucic and get back a 7thround pick.
    Option 2 is to package him with Caleb Jones. You retain nothing on Lucic and get back a 7th round pick.
    Which option do you prefer?

    Option three, expansion buyout. I think it is still a possibility. If you pay 3 million to dump him the remaining isn’t enough to get anything of value back. If lucic was only getting 3 million would everybody be as determined to get rid of him? Sometimes when you are in a hole the best plan is to stop digging.

  56. ArmchairGM says:

    Scungilli Slushy: They should have kept Strome. He is exactly what they need, a capable 3 RC. He probably could carry Benson and JP.

    Strome couldn’t piss a drop, remember? He wasn’t about to carry anybody.

  57. digger50 says:

    ArmchairGM: Broberg.

    I think he would be a great pick.

  58. digger50 says:

    I have been reading a few positive comments about Newhook, even from the other US players. Then Pronman gave him a mention today on Stauffers show when asked about a player that has not received enough attention.

  59. Nit64 says:

    in case of early cba redo i’d be very careful about cap retention or doubling the time period until we see if compliance buyouts are available. with the slightest excuse 31 teams will want a compliance buyout period. 30 teams will want this before the expansion draft.

  60. CrazyCoach says:

    who: Fair enough. Do you think either scenario is realistic?
    My reasoning on Jones is that maybe Samarukov will be just as good. And you have 2 veteran lefties in Sekera and Russell to hold the fort until Samarukov gets to where Jones is now.

    True. Good point. Ultimately every trade is a gamble, so a prospect who is ready (Jones) as opposed to Samaurkov who may take a year or two to be truly ready, is a gamble. Bear and Lagersson are 85% ready for NHL duty, while Benning is an option that has NHL experience.

    IN any scenario though, trying to get rid of that Lucic contract will be a challenge.

  61. pts2pndr says:

    CrazyCoach: I think I would go for option 1 with Benning.

    The upside on Jones is tremendous.

    My thought is Samorukov will blow past Jones this year like he is parked. Jones skating is special but he still gets beat one on one and samorukov has a more accurate and harder shot. Samorukov also is more physical.

  62. Death By Misadventure says:

    Bag of Pucks: Dick Panik & Krebs? I’d avoid that locker room.

    Well at least if there’s Dick Panik with Krebs, it means it won’t be with your Cozens.

    I’m here all night! Thank You!

  63. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja:
    Never is there any mention of the Goaltending coach all three Talbot Kosh Brossoit down on their knees way to often (is it coached)all three get beat up high both sides at high rates when between the pipes for the Oil.It’s like the goaltending coach has diplomatic immunity wherehis techniques and name can and will never be mentioned.

    I’ve read two things on this topic over the last few months (a) Schwartz is staying and (b) that he is actually quite respected throughout the hockey and goaltending community.

    I have no idea his skills as a coach – just what I’ve read.

    Also, all NHL goalies spend considerable time on their knees – this is overblown in the Oiler community as I don’t think the recent Oiler goalies do so any more than most.

  64. hunter1909 says:

    Hunter1909’s DeathMarch™ Unofficial Top Ten All Star List between 2014-19:

    1 Common Fan 14 – 1st 2014-15
    – 1st 2016-17

    2 HT Joe – 1st 2018-19
    – 2nd 2015-16
    – 7th 2017-18

    3 Yeti – 1st 2017-18
    – 5th 2014-15

    4 Romulus Apotheosis – 2nd 2017-18
    – 7th 2018-19

    5 Jake 70 – 2nd 2017-18
    – 9th 2017-18

    6 Younger Oil – 3rd 2014-15
    – 5th 2017-18

    7 TCHO – 5th 2017-18
    – 9th 2015-16

    8 FLEA – 7th 2018-9
    – 8th 2017-18

    9 Stephen Sheps – 7th 2014-15
    – 10th 2018-19

    10 Godot 10 – 10th 2014-15
    – 10th 2018-19

    Hunter1909’s DeathMarch™ Congratulates all Top Ten DeathMarch™ All Stars.

  65. OriginalPouzar says:

    Optimism is like heroin: and if the sweetner for this deal was Kappanen?Does that make it more palatable?

    That’s a different scenario, yes. Of course, that would never happen.

  66. PinkSocks says:

    Death By Misadventure: Well at least if there’s Dick Panik with Krebs, it means it won’t be with your Cozens.

    I’m here all night! Thank You!

    You added a Newhook and reeled me in.

  67. OriginalPouzar says:

    JJS: It works if the talent coming in exceeds the talent being bought out and the money is similar over the term of the buy out.

    If there is a player that brings considerably more to the table than Samwise, and can be acquired for a lower cap hit (i.e. the combined hit of buyout and new contract are somewhat equal), it absolutely makes sense.

    Also, if the new talent has room to grow with the team, make the deal.

    Despite being a decent fit for the time being, Sam will likely not be part of the team past this season.

    But otherwise, I agree with your comments

    Sure, of course, however, I doubt there is an acquisition of a $2.1M player that would provide more to the team – given the top 6 scoring rates with bottom six linemates…..

  68. GMB3 says:

    ArmchairGM: Strome couldn’t piss a drop, remember? He wasn’t about to carry anybody.

    I believe that you may be wearing your PDO blinders. Scored at basically his career rate over the rest of the season.

  69. CrazyCoach says:

    pts2pndr: My thought is Samorukov will blow past Jones this year like he is parked. Jones skating is special but he still gets beat one on one and samorukov has a more accurate and harder shot. Samorukov also is more physic

    I barely saw Samuarkov play this season, so I can’t offer an opinion, but I did a couple write ups on Jones for the Cult of Hockey and my fear at the time was that Jones tended to get beat to his left side, but that was probably because he was playing on his offside the times I watched him.

    I would caution on bringing Samorukov along too fast. This franchise’s history in pushing kids too far too fast is well documented and I don’t to see Samorukov nor Evan Bouchard pushed too hard. With JOnes pretty much stamping his ticket to the big team next year, why not have an Option “C” where you keep the kids on D and can offer Lucic along with Russel to really clear out the salary cap?

  70. GMB3 says:

    LadiesloveSmid: Need to shed some cap but Pulju or Yamamoto +

    That would be a worthwhile deal, imo.

  71. Death By Misadventure says:

    digger50: But no goalie so assets have to go towards a goalie.

    The Oilers send huge amounts of draft capital on goalies. Just stop. Please.

  72. LadiesloveSmid says:

    GMB3: That would be a worthwhile deal, imo.

    Fenton seems as though he’s cut from the same cloth as Chiarelli.

    Holland should be on the phone about Spurgeon & Zucker night & day.

  73. Death By Misadventure says:

    GMB3:
    What would you guys be willing to give up to get Jason Zucker from Minnesota?

    What if the answer is Nuge?

    I’m not saying I want this to happen but I can see it happening.

    LT talks about the story of Rick Nash wanting out after yet another rebuild in Columbus. I see Nuge as being in the same spot in his career.

    7 coaches in 9 years I believe.

    If there is one person on this team that doesn’t believe that this time (Holland and Tippett) is different, it’s Nuge.

    Question therefore is, would you trade Nuge for Zucker?

  74. ArmchairGM says:

    CrazyCoach: I barely saw Samuarkov play this season, so I can’t offer an opinion, but I did a couple write ups on Jones for the Cult of Hockey and my fear at the time was that Jones tended to get beat to his left side, but that was probably because he was playing on his offside the times I watched him.

    I would caution on bringing Samorukov along too fast.This franchise’s history in pushing kids too far too fast is well documented and I don’t to see Samorukov nor Evan Bouchard pushed too hard.With JOnes pretty much stamping his ticket to the big team next year, why not have an Option “C” where you keep the kids on D and can offer Lucic along with Russel to really clear out the salary cap?

    I wouldn’t mind seeing Bouchard play a full season in Bakersfield. Samorukov may end up playing 2 or more just due to Leftorium. That’s not a bad thing, Jones and Bear both have 2 AHL seasons already and aren’t sure things for the NHL roster yet.

  75. Death By Misadventure says:

    ArmchairGM: Broberg.

    I was actually thinking how Broberg was a dark horse pick for the Oilers. Swedish Posters comments gave me pause and made me think that he sounds like a Holland guy.

  76. ArmchairGM says:

    Death By Misadventure: What if the answer is Nuge?

    I’m not saying I want this to happen but I can see it happening.

    LT talks about the story of Rick Nash wanting out after yet another rebuild in Columbus. I see Nuge as being in the same spot in his career.

    7 coaches in 9 years I believe.

    If there is one person on this team that doesn’t believe that this time (Holland and Tippett) is different, it’s Nuge.

    Question therefore is, would you trade Nuge for Zucker?

    Zucker carries MUCH less value than Nuge.

  77. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Death By Misadventure,

    Would have to commit to Draisaitl at 2C if they trade RNH.

    If Skinner’s getting 9M, Nuge might get close to that in UFA 2 summers from now. Zucker is signed 2 years longer at slightly cheaper.

    Feels like a move that doesn’t turn the dial now, and might help 2 years down the road. I’d hope they could get him for less and then potentially let Nuge walk if he wants too much money.

  78. godot10 says:

    Rondo:
    If Hughes,Kakko, Byram, Turcotte, Cozens, and Dach are gone, who will Oilers pick at # 8?

    Krebs.

  79. godot10 says:

    GMB3:
    What would you guys be willing to give up to get Jason Zucker from Minnesota?

    Kris Russell or MIlan Lucic or Sam Gagner, or some combination of them.

  80. Death By Misadventure says:

    PinkSocks: You added a Newhook and reeled me in.

    *respectful slow clap*

  81. godot10 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – I wonder if the 3 years to Tippet is a “nod” to Woodcroft having the opportunity to be head coach someday?Wouldnt’ that be something….

    I think it is tighter budgets at OEG due to non-renewal of premium seating. MacT out, Coffey out, Barry Stafford retiring. Don Metz leaving. JJ Hebert leaving. The gravy train is leaking gravy.

  82. Death By Misadventure says:

    ArmchairGM: Zucker carries MUCH less value than Nuge.

    So what does Minny have to add to make it even?

    I ask cause I genuinely think that one of the stories of the offseason might just be Nuge on the way out.

    Not because Holland wants him out but because he wants out.

    His cap is $6m so that’s not nothing. And he would have tremendous trade value.

    Apologies if anyone thinks I’m here trolling. I’m not. Genuinely concerned Oilers fan here.

  83. Jordan says:

    who:
    Okay.. Back to ways to dispose of Lucic.
    Let’s just say you had 2 options to move him.
    Option 1 is to package him with one, or even two, of Benning/Bear/Lagesson. You retain 3 million on Lucic and get back a 7thround pick.
    Option 2 is to package him with Caleb Jones. You retain nothing on Lucic and get back a 7th round pick.
    Which option do you prefer?

    Option 2.

    If Jones is the price to get out of Lucic’s contract scott free, I pay it and run away giggling.

    Jones is good, and I’d like to keep him, but if he gets us out without retaining, that 6M dollars available.

    That’s almost enough to buy Anders Lee for 4-6 years. That’s enough to bring in a legit top 6 winger, not a Chiasson, or a Reider, or another gamble.

    That gets this team way closer to the playoffs than anything other single move we can do, and there are not additional costs.

    Jones has upside, but right now he’s a 6th dman with upside.

    Not worth a top 6 winger in his prime.

    JMO.

  84. godot10 says:

    Trading Nugent-Hopkins just creates a massive new problem. The OIlers have abysmal centre depth in the organization already.

  85. Death By Misadventure says:

    godot10:
    Trading Nugent-Hopkins just creates a massive new problem.The OIlers have abysmal centre depth in the organization already.

    Agreed.

    Yet I can’t shake the feeling that Nuge wants out and it’s a reality we will have to deal with.

  86. OriginalPouzar says:

    CrazyCoach: I think I would go for option 1 with Benning.

    The upside on Jones is tremendous.

    Lagesson is right there with Jones – both well ahead of Bear.

    Different type of player but he is just as NHL ready and just as good (in different ways).

  87. hunter1909 says:

    godot10:
    Trading Nugent-Hopkins just creates a massive new problem.The OIlers have abysmal centre depth in the organization already.

    OBC Approach: “Sure but then we can cheer for him when his new team makes the finals, while the Oilers trade away their good players for magic beans. The Tier One fans eat it up”.

    Ken Holland Approach: Keep good players, get more good players via the draft and AHL.

  88. CrazyCoach says:

    ArmchairGM: Jones and Bear both have 2 AHL seasons already and aren’t sure things for the NHL roster yet.

    I watched a lot of Bakersfield this season and Jones looks ready. Maybe not 1st pairing ready, but I cold see him playing 12-15 minutes a night with the big club. Bear is about a season or two still away from the big leagues. My guess is that he may be passed by Bouchard by seasons end.

    Either way you slice it, the future looks bright for the D corps.

  89. hunter1909 says:

    Death By Misadventure: Agreed.

    Yet I can’t shake the feeling that Nuge wants out and it’s a reality we will have to deal with.

    lol

    Its all of those weddings and meetups with Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle; with tales from the big city.

    He’s not free until his contract expires, so Ken Holland will let him be an Oiler for the start of the season, and Tippet the new coach will use him in a way that makes him want to stick around.

    Just my two cents.

  90. hunter1909 says:

    ArmchairGM: I wouldn’t mind seeing Bouchard play a full season in Bakersfield.

    Bouchard gets called up by Christmas, or mid January at the latest. He’s that good.

    Then, like Larry Robinson before him, he will struggle with the NHL game for up to half of his 1st NHL shift.

    Bouchard looked NHL ready offensively last season, and is a big sturdy dude who doesn’t get pushed around by anyone. By this time next year Lowetide posters will be talking up his pending 8X8 million contract lol

  91. Rondo says:

    Off the board picks for the Oilers Broberg and Newhook.

  92. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr: My thought is Samorukov will blow past Jones this year like he is parked. Jones skating is special but he still gets beat one on one and samorukov has a more accurate and harder shot. Samorukov also is more physical.

    Samorukov is simply a better defender – I think many get blinded by the major offensive spike but he was drafted as a defence first guy. He is a great defender who is physical, great on the boards and extremely aggressive at defending the blue-line.

    While his skating may not be at Jones’ level, he is a plus skater who has good offensive instincts and vision in transitioning the puck.

    Who knows how he’ll develop but he ceiling is much higher than Jones’.

  93. CrazyCoach says:

    OriginalPouzar: Lagesson is right there with Jones – both well ahead of Bear.

    Different type of player but he is just as NHL ready and just as good (in different ways).

    Very true and with Joel Persson coming, it’s nice to be able to have a conversation about the Oilers defence that isn’t based on a deficit model.

  94. OriginalPouzar says:

    hunter1909: Bouchard gets called up by Christmas, or mid January at the latest. He’s that good.

    Then, like Larry Robinson before him, he will struggle with the NHL game for up to half of his 1st NHL shift.

    Bouchard looked NHL ready offensively last season, and is a big sturdy dude who doesn’t get pushed around by anyone. By this time next year Lowetide posters will be talking up his pending 8X8 million contract lol

    His offensive game being NHL ready was never really the question though. Yes, he did make a few nice transition passes per game but he also made 2-3 plays per game that directly led to high danger scoring chances against and, in the last few games, goals against. That was all in a very sheltered third pairing role.

    He’ll be a year older and a year further developed and hopefully with some solid 5 on 5 AHL time and then we’ll see where he’s at.

    You could be right.

    He could need more time.

  95. OriginalPouzar says:

    CrazyCoach: Very true and with Joel Persson coming, it’s nice to be able to have a conversation about the Oilers defence that isn’t based on a deficit model.

    What is going to be very nice about this coming season, is actual NHL ready players skilled players with top 4/top 6 potential, ready and waiting for call-up.

  96. JOFA says:

    who:
    Okay.. Back to ways to dispose of Lucic.
    Let’s just say you had 2 options to move him.
    Option 1 is to package him with one, or even two, of Benning/Bear/Lagesson. You retain 3 million on Lucic and get back a 7thround pick.
    Option 2 is to package him with Caleb Jones. You retain nothing on Lucic and get back a 7th round pick.
    Which option do you prefer?

    Neither. Giving up way too much.

  97. CrazyCoach says:

    OriginalPouzar: What is going to be very nice about this coming season, is actual NHL ready players skilled players with top 4/top 6 potential, ready and waiting for call-up.

    I bit the bullet this season and bought an AHL pass, and the improvement in Bakersfield this season was a pleasant surprise. Much improvement from the beginning of the till the final game of the playoffs. Woodcroft did a great job in developing players. Sadly, Wood croft will be lost to another team if he continues on his current trajectory.

    I’m not naive to think this team is ready to challenge anytime soon, but it feels like some small steps have been made. As some would say, it is Next Year Country or in our case, Next Season Country.

  98. pts2pndr says:

    CrazyCoach: I barely saw Samuarkov play this season, so I can’t offer an opinion, but I did a couple write ups on Jones for the Cult of Hockey and my fear at the time was that Jones tended to get beat to his left side, but that was probably because he was playing on his offside the times I watched him.

    I would caution on bringing Samorukov along too fast.This franchise’s history in pushing kids too far too fast is well documented and I don’t to see Samorukov nor Evan Bouchard pushed too hard.With JOnes pretty much stamping his ticket to the big team next year, why not have an Option “C” where you keep the kids on D and can offer Lucic along with Russel to really clear out the salary cap?

    I would be all in on that. I don’t think we have a large enough sample size to accurately access the young D’s abilities as NHL D moving forward. The ideal scenario is having their play push the team to make room for them. Throwing good money after bad is a fools errand way to get rid of Lucic’s contract in my opinion.

  99. who says:

    ArmchairGM: Why do people think Jones is worth twice – or four times – what Bear is worth?

    Bear + Lagesson + $3M is equal to just Jones in your opinion??

    Yes I guess so.
    I am willing to pay considerably more for the higher upside.

  100. who says:

    ArmchairGM: My model keeps Lucic as the cost to dispose is too great*. Maybe there will be a compliance buyout (enough teams need one) or maybe the cost to convince Seattle to take him will be palatable, but I think he’s staying for the next 2 years at least.

    * We don’t actually know what the market is, but that’s my sense of it.

    I think I would choose either of my options over keeping Lucic.
    In fact, I’m not sure you can find another team that would agree to either option.

  101. OriginalPouzar says:

    CrazyCoach: I bit the bullet this season and bought an AHL pass, and the improvement in Bakersfield this season was a pleasant surprise.Much improvement from the beginning of the till the final game of the playoffs.Woodcroft did a great job in developing players. Sadly, Wood croft will be lost to another team if he continues on his current trajectory.

    I’m not naive to think this team is ready to challenge anytime soon, but it feels like some small steps have been made.As some would say, it is Next Year Country or in our case, Next Season Country.

    I would also give some credit to Dave Manson for his work with the defence.

    Lagesson improved month over month.

  102. Scungilli Slushy says:

    ArmchairGM: Strome couldn’t piss a drop, remember? He wasn’t about to carry anybody.

    I know

    But a lot of players had the same problem

    With previous established success. Something else is going on, hopefully Tippet rectifies that.

  103. ArmchairGM says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Death By Misadventure,

    Would have to commit to Draisaitl at 2C if they trade RNH.

    If Skinner’s getting 9M, Nuge might get close to that in UFA 2 summers from now. Zucker is signed 2 years longer at slightly cheaper.

    Feels like a move that doesn’t turn the dial now, and might help 2 years down the road. I’d hope they could get him for less and then potentially let Nuge walk if he wants too much money.

    There will be plenty of money when Nuge’s contract expires, if he’s worth $9M then he’ll get that. It’s only a $3M raise, Sekera and Russell’s contracts expire at the same time. Easy peasy.

  104. ArmchairGM says:

    Death By Misadventure: So what does Minny have to add to make it even?

    Spurgeon with 50% retained? Not sure, I’d have to look at it. Zucker isn’t a top line winger, he’s 27 with a career average of 42 points per 82. We’d be better off targeting cheaper and younger players like Kapanen, Burakovsky and the like. Acquisition cost and signing cost would be cheaper for these players.

  105. ArmchairGM says:

    hunter1909: OBC Approach: “Sure but then we can cheer for him when his new team makes the finals, while the Oilers trade away their good players for magic beans. The Tier One fans eat it up”.

    Ken Holland Approach: Keep good players, get more good players via the draft and AHL.

    Chiarelli Approach: draft Cozens, trade Nuge for pennies the next week.then sign Spezza for $6M to replace Nuge, then wonder why the team is in the toilet.

  106. ArmchairGM says:

    hunter1909: Bouchard gets called up by Christmas, or mid January at the latest. He’s that good.

    This is likely what happens. I wouldn’t mind seeing him there for the whole season though – aside from a 9 game stint – and playoffs.

  107. ArmchairGM says:

    who: I think I would choose either of my options over keeping Lucic.
    In fact, I’m not sure you can find another team that would agree to either option.

    So you’d keep him then? Lol.

  108. Pescador says:

    ArmchairGM: There will be plenty of money when Nuge’s contract expires, if he’s worth $9M then he’ll get that. It’s only a $3M raise, Sekera and Russell’s contracts expire at the same time. Easy peasy.

    Nurse’s next contract is going to eat up almost $7Mil of the $9.5 though.
    But the good news is I expect the cap to rise between $3M & $5M in the next two years so that will help.

  109. Pescador says:

    Death By Misadventure: Agreed.

    Yet I can’t shake the feeling that Nuge wants out and it’s a reality we will have to deal with.

    This sounds like Death by Misinformation
    Trust me what Nuge wants is for the Oilers to make the playoffs & to play with consistent, Non shitty linemates.
    Provide these things & when the Oilers offer him a raise, he will re-sign

  110. ArmchairGM says:

    Pescador: Nurse’s next contract is going to eat up almost $7Mil of the $9.5 though.
    But the good news is I expect the cap to rise between $3M & $5M in the next two years so that will help.

    No. Nurse’s raise will be roughly $3M, and it happens a year sooner than the RNH contract. Nurse’s money will come from the Gagner contract of $3.15M.

  111. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: There will be plenty of money when Nuge’s contract expires, if he’s worth $9M then he’ll get that. It’s only a $3M raise, Sekera and Russell’s contracts expire at the same time. Easy peasy.

    Presumably Russell is gone this off-season, and the money spent, and Sekera is gone next off-season, and the money spent.

  112. flyfish1168 says:

    ArmchairGM: Chiarelli Approach: draft Cozens, trade Nuge for pennies the next week.then sign Spezza for $6M to replace Nuge, then wonder why the team is in the toilet.

    I don’t believe he would not use the draft. He would trade it for someone like Logan Brown that is closer to being NHL ready from 2016 draft to try and spend up the process.

  113. flyfish1168 says:

    I haven’t seen draft ranking or anyone saying Kaapo Kakko can go 1st overall. But I would be tempted after seeing his performance at the worlds and world junior. I like that he is a bigger body with that high skill level.

  114. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: Presumably Russell is gone this off-season, and the money spent, and Sekera is gone next off-season, and the money spent.

    The Holland Bible:

    https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/230153

    https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/230154

  115. ArmchairGM says:

    flyfish1168: I don’t believe he would use the draft he would trade it for someone like Logan Brown that has really from 2016 draft to try and spend up the process.

    Could be. I was referring to the whole Hall / Puljujarvi / Lucic thing.

  116. Pescador says:

    ArmchairGM: The Holland Bible:

    https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/230153

    https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/230154

    I appreciate the work you put in on that.
    Tor is not trading Kappen for two 2nd round picks let alone 1
    So no

  117. Lightgestalt says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    He’d be a cancer in the locker room, I guess

  118. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: The Holland Bible:

    https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/230153

    https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/230154

    Solid work and, for the most part, I don’t mind and make sense.

    I do think it makes sense to stagger the Russell/Sekera dispositions with one this year and one next year (Russell this year, Sekera next year. Going to play devils’ advocate on a few things:

    – I like betting on Burakovsky in the top 6 (wanted to grab him at the deadline and test him in the top 6) but having each of him, Puljujarvi and Benson in the top 6 – 3 bets with zeros assurances, is pretty risky.

    – in the second year, that lineup is breaking in three rookie D that weren’t on the previous year’s roster (although I assume that at least 2, if not all 3, would get NHL time this year even if not breaking camp with the team).

    – Lowe is the Condors’ captain and is simply not an NHL player, even as a #7 guy. I know the premise is that a youngster would get called up and play if there is an injury, but still. I would think it would be Manning at #7 (although I think he can, and should be, traded with $1M retained – net even to burying him on the cap).

  119. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    It early
    I am jet – lagged and dreamy…
    3 years out imagine:
    Sam-Bouch
    Klef-Lars
    Lag-Jones
    Nurse in there somewhere if he can be afforded.

    Just got wood

    Don’t trade these guys as sweeteners

  120. jp says:

    who:
    Okay.. Back to ways to dispose of Lucic.
    Let’s just say you had 2 options to move him.
    Option 1 is to package him with one, or even two, of Benning/Bear/Lagesson. You retain 3 million on Lucic and get back a 7thround pick.
    Option 2 is to package him with Caleb Jones. You retain nothing on Lucic and get back a 7th round pick.
    Which option do you prefer?

    I would definitely pull the trigger on option 2, and prefer it to option 1 by a lot. If Jones is the cost to be rid of 4x6M of Lucic, well that seems like a no brainer to me. There’s the possibility of CBA buyouts providing a better option, but we don’t know at this time.

    The question becomes what is Jones’ upside? Pretty sure he doesn’t ever project as a $6M defenseman. And he’s 5 yrs from UFA, so he’s not cost controlled much beyond when Lucic is.

    For option 1 vs option 2: Is Jones vs. Benning/Bear/Lagesson worth 4x3M? I like Jones, but he’s not worth that IMO. If Lucic + Jones for nothing is on the table I have a difficult time seeing the Oilers turning it down.

  121. MattyIce says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick,

    Jet Lagessoned as well… this looks great! Don’t see Nurse?

    I don’t think Ken will trade him unless the return is fairly massive…

    Great future on the blue… never said that in my young life

  122. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: Solid work and, for the most part, I don’t mind and make sense.

    I do think it makes sense to stagger the Russell/Sekera dispositions with one this year and one next year (Russell this year, Sekera next year. Going to play devils’ advocate on a few things:

    – I like betting on Burakovsky in the top 6 (wanted to grab him at the deadline and test him in the top 6) but having each of him, Puljujarvi and Benson in the top 6 – 3 bets with zeros assurances, is pretty risky.

    – in the second year, that lineup is breaking in three rookie D that weren’t on the previous year’s roster (although I assume that at least 2, if not all 3, would get NHL time this year even if not breaking camp with the team).

    – Lowe is the Condors’ captain and is simply not an NHL player, even as a #7 guy.I know the premise is that a youngster would get called up and play if there is an injury, but still.I would think it would be Manning at #7 (although I think he can, and should be, traded with $1M retained – net even to burying him on the cap).

    Excellent feedback, thanks! To your points:

    1. 3 question marks in the top-6: I tried to put together 2 lines I thought would be successful and a 3rd that would at least saw off. But, deployment is the job of the coach (I’m playing GM here) and we know all of Nugent-Hopkins, Kassian and Brown have played top-6 successfully in the past, so their are options. In Part 2, the whole 3rd line is made up of top-6 talent. So I’m not concerned about putting players into the top-6 as much as (a) getting more talent and speed on the roster, (b) getting younger players who will fit into the core group age-wise, and (c) putting players in positions to succeed. McDavid and Burakovsky played well together in junior, but if it doesn’t work out here Brown can step in. Also, Draisaitl and Nuge and Khaira are options as well. Again, I’m not the coach, just putting lines together that I think will work.

    2. 3 rookie D: you are correct in assuming each of these players will get time in the NHL in 2019-20. Also, as stated in the Team Explanation, I have $6.7M in cap space, I don’t HAVE to trade both Sekera and Russell, I can easily keep one of them with room to spare. Alternatively I can remove one of the rookies from the roster and sign a guy like Pietrangelo for up to $7.7M and still slip in under the cap – even with paying Taylor Hall $9M. However, this complicates the cap situation for future years as the young players will need raises and the only significant salary coming off the books is Nugent-Hopkins and Larsson. So keeping Sekera for the duration of his contract is probably the safe route, as it means we can keep Nuge for the Dynasty Years and it puts less pressure on Cozens to step into his shoes. If the young players aren’t performing as well as I hope they will – and thus won’t be deserving of huge raises – then maybe having both Nuge and Pietrangelo is possible, but that remains to be seen.

    3. Lowe as #7 D: the trouble with this year is the salary cap, I can’t afford to have Manning on the NHL roster, it has to be someone earning $850k or less. I don’t think Lowe is an NHL regular either, but he’s been a good soldier and I want him to earn an NHL paycheck… ok, that’s not really it, I don’t want any of the prospects sitting in the press box and I don’t want Lowe taking top-4 AHL ice from any of them either. So this is my compromise. Re-signing Gravel would be better I suppose, but then we still have too many defenseman in Bakersfield who need regular reps for proper development. It’s such a minor thing to be honest I didn’t spend much time worrying about it.

  123. ArmchairGM says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick:
    It early
    I am jet – lagged and dreamy…
    3 years out imagine:
    Sam-Bouch
    Klef-Lars
    Lag-Jones
    Nurse in there somewhere if he can be afforded.

    Just got wood

    Don’t trade these guys as sweeteners

    Three years out and 1 of these guys will be playing in Seattle. Sambo and Bouch are exempt, Larsson is a UFA (not a single UFA was protected in the Vegas draft) so that leaves presumably Klefbom, Nurse and Jones on the protected list. We could see Lagesson or Bear in Seattle.

  124. ArmchairGM says:

    Pescador: I appreciate the work you put in on that.
    Tor is not trading Kappen for two 2nd round picks let alone 1
    So no

    I explained my reasoning. Please explain yours.

    If Kapanen signs a $4M offer sheet, what do the Leafs get in return? A 2nd round pick. Also, I’m not sure where your “let alone one” comment is coming from, I’m not trading 1.

  125. Jaxon says:

    So I was just reading The Hockey News annual “Future Watch” edition. Rob Tychkowski did the Oilers’ write up. I would normally assume him to be an educated writer for all things Oiler even if I haven’t always agreed with him. But this is his to 10 Oilers prospects:
    1. Evan Bouchard
    2. Kailer Yamamoto
    3. Caleb Jones
    4. Kirill Maksimov
    5. Joel Persson
    6. Ryan McLeod
    7. Dmitri Samurokov
    8. John Marino
    9. Cooper Marody
    10. Ethan Bear

    There’s a glaring omission that should not only be in the top 10 but possibly the top two. It must be a mistake and it probably also caused Benson to not be considered for the top 50 or top 100 prospects in the NHL. Personally, Is out him ahead of Yamamoto who wound up 43rd overall. This was done near the end of the season so we hadn’t seen Samurokov’s great playoff run yet otherwise he may be higher too.

    Thoughts?

  126. London Jon says:

    ArmchairGM: Strome couldn’t piss a drop, remember? He wasn’t about to carry anybody.

    He was unlucky. He’s been just fine in NYC

  127. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    ArmchairGM: Three years out and 1 of these guys will be playing in Seattle. Sambo and Bouch are exempt,Larsson is a UFA (not a single UFA was protected in the Vegas draft) so that leaves presumably Klefbom, Nurse and Jones on the protected list. We could see Lagesson or Bear in Seattle.

    Yes I know
    I am thinking they could resign Larsson
    He has a unique skill set that complements the others
    And mean

  128. rickithebear says:

    DFF is the worst measure of differential performance.
    As the guy who developed the true multi variable Open HD SH theory.
    Which involves measure of
    1. situational performance in multivariable (3d) team, comp, ZS
    Puck IQ a academic binary (2D) partial ( inaccurate) measure of performance
    2. Having first pointed out the HD SH area. Rickisbox you guys called it Around 07-08 to 09-10.
    Struggling for the initial years trying to have you guys get it.
    3. Were we first know importance of HD dmen establishing expected save%( goalies perform around) relative to corsi against yeilded by ( teamates) Forwards ( NZ trap success rate) and rovers (return rate (% ) back to a 2-1 structure in the HD area.) A situational 3D measure.
    4. Then tried to get you to understand the differentiation between
    Corsi that had 0% chance of going in and Corsi that hit open space in net Elevation ( open shot) the only shots required to be saved.
    5. Identifying the best Dmen at creating highest % of 0% Corsi per Corsi faced. Highest % of non scorable corsi ( blocks + misses + hit Goalies) who are an easy add in creating elite HD def pair with a top 60 HD dman in a 2-1 GA structure. Their skill and s wasted when paired with HD def nightmare rovers like Klefbom & Nurse. Really elite players victims of who they are played with.
    6. You end up Identifying the best Open HD SH defensive pairs who establish low Open HD shot rates and establish low expected Save%.
    7. Then you can identify the best goalies at Save % above expected Open HD shot save%
    A goalie like repetitive top 3 goalie :Mike Smith.
    Another top 10 open HD shot save% goalie victim to Calgary,s repetative bottom 3 expec Ed Open HD shot save % Defence.

    All the data you present is binary and only covers portions of the 4 groups of multi variable data resulting in errors to each group from .2% to 300%.
    One set of permutations being
    A% x B% x C% x D%
    A – Basic NZ trap measure error being 33% or higher
    B – Basic Scoreable Open SH error being 300%
    C – scorable attack of HD area based on D pairs side.
    A dmen in a 1-1 GA def structure is not penalized for a rover not being their.
    That failure is solely charged to the missing rover.
    And rightly so.
    So hearing fans discuss a d partners failings when they are the 1 in a 3-1-1-1 is laughable.

    So I will not discuss Accurate Bolean data with you.

    I will discuss play based on high win% system actions.

    Larsson & Russell get Elite open HD SH results when playing in a 2-1 system.
    Based on his past coaching
    I think we have a coach that has NZ expectations for his forwards.
    I think he wants a 2-1 structure when defending the DZ.

    Benning is a top 60 HD dman in 2-1 play.

    Based on even differential results from Bakersfield.
    Laggesson & Bouchard are our best def prospects.

    I would retain Nurse as our one rover with HD def potential.

    Sekera
    And
    Klefbom

    Have potential to re establish the top 125 fwd depth needed in my cup core roster theory.

  129. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    rickithebear:
    DFF is the worst measure of differential performance.
    As the guy who developed the true multi variable Open HD SH theory.
    Which involves measure of
    1. situational performance in multivariable (3d) team, comp, ZS
    Puck IQ a academic binary (2D) partial ( inaccurate) measure of performance
    2. Having first pointed out the HD SH area. Rickisbox you guys called it Around 07-08 to 09-10.
    Struggling for the initial years trying to have you guys get it.
    3. Were we first know importance of HD dmen establishing expected save%( goalies perform around) relative to corsi against yeilded by ( teamates) Forwards ( NZ trap success rate) and rovers (return rate (% ) back to a 2-1 structure in the HD area.) A situational 3D measure.
    4. Then tried to get you to understand the differentiation between
    Corsi that had 0% chance of going in and Corsi that hit open space in net Elevation ( open shot) the only shots required to be saved.
    5. Identifying the best Dmen at creating highest % of0% Corsi per Corsi faced. Highest % of non scorable corsi ( blocks + misses + hit Goalies) who are an easy add in creating elite HD def pair with a top 60 HD dman in a 2-1 GA structure. Their skill and s wasted when paired with HD def nightmare rovers like Klefbom & Nurse. Really elite players victims of who they are played with.
    6. You end up Identifying the best Open HD SH defensive pairs who establish low Open HD shot rates and establish low expected Save%.
    7. Then you can identify the best goalies at Save % above expected Open HD shot save%
    A goalie like repetitive top 3 goalie :Mike Smith.
    Another top 10 open HD shot save% goalie victim to Calgary,s repetative bottom 3 expec Ed Open HD shot save % Defence.

    All the data you present is binary and only covers portions of the 4 groups of multi variable data resulting in errors to each group from .2% to 300%.
    One set of permutations being
    A% x B% x C% x D%
    A – Basic NZ trap measure error being 33% or higher
    B – Basic Scoreable Open SH error being 300%
    C – scorable attack of HD area based on D pairs side.
    A dmen in a 1-1 GA def structure is not penalized for a rover not being their.
    That failure is solely charged to the missing rover.
    And rightly so.
    So hearing fans discuss a d partners failings when they are the 1 in a 3-1-1-1 is laughable.

    So I will not discuss Accurate Bolean data with you.

    I will discuss play based on high win% system actions.

    Larsson & Russell get Elite open HD SH results when playing in a 2-1 system.
    Based on his past coaching
    I think we have a coach that has NZ expectations for his forwards.
    I think he wants a 2-1 structure when defending the DZ.

    Benning is a top 60 HD dman in 2-1 play.

    Based on even differential results from Bakersfield.
    Laggesson & Bouchard are our best def prospects.

    I would retain Nurse as our one rover with HD def potential.

    Sekera
    And
    Klefbom

    Have potential to re establish the top 125 fwd depth needed in my cup core roster theory.

    Thanks for posting RTB!
    Hope you are feeling better
    I struggle to understand what you are saying sometimes but I value your insights

    What would you do with the current and emerging D in Oil country?
    Who would you keep?
    Who would you trade? And when?

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