Mustang Sally

by Lowetide

The Edmonton Oilers shopped the (available) world for secondary scoring one year ago, finally uncovering some offense via a trade with the Vancouver Canucks. Samwise has a handsome contract and that makes his situation complicated. Does he bring enough to the bottom six to stick around, despite the cost?

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group. INSANE OFFER IS HERE!

  • New Lowetide: NHL Combine brings Oilers dual problems into focus for Ken Holland
  • New Lowetide: Analyzing the Oilers roster to see which players fit Dave Tippett’s ‘aggressive, fast team’ approach
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Dave Tippett’s coaching philosophy, how he relays information to his players and why information is king
  • Lowetide: What will Ken Holland see in Evan Bouchard?
  • Lowetide: Does Oilers’ signing of Joakim Nygard signal a measured approach to summer 2019?
  • Lowetide: Dave Tippett’s roster deployment in Arizona and what it might mean for the Oilers
  • Jonathan Willis: Why Ken Holland’s worst years in Detroit tell us the most about how he’ll fare in Edmonton
  • Jonathan Willis: Three offseason scenarios and how each one would affect the Oilers salary cap
  • Lowetide: Examining the Oilers’ goaltending options in free agency.
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s Oilers could go the high octane procurement route but will need a driver
  • Lowetide: How much can Connor Brown help the Oilers?
  • Lowetide: Dmitri Samorukov is off to the Memorial Cup and is the Oilers’ fastest rising prospect
  • Jonathan Willis: Craig MacTavish leaves the Oilers, signalling the first major front office change under Ken Holland
  • Lowetide: What kind of coach should Ken Holland hire for the Oilers?
  • Jonathan Willis: Every Oilers AHL prospect, rated by how close they are to the NHL
  • Jonathan Willis: A resurgent Andrej Sekera gives the Oilers much-needed defensive options
  • Lowetide: Is Joe Gambardella destined to become the Oilers’ next Fernando Pisani?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Protector, supporter, confidant: Connor McDavid’s mom, Kelly, is his off-ice rock through good times and bad
  • Lowetide: An offseason plan for Ken Holland to remodel the Oilers roster.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland steadfast that buck stops with him as new Oilers GM.
  • Lowetide: How will Ken Holland proceed in Year 1 as Oilers general manager?
  • Jonathan Willis: What does the arrival of Ken Holland mean for the Oilers coaching search?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Prioritizing the roster issues that await Ken Holland in Edmonton.
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s procurement list for his rumored move to Edmonton will include front-office personnel
  • Jonathan Willis: A Milan Lucic trade is at the top of the to-do list for the Oilers’ next GM.

SAM GAGNER

Yesterday we looked at Jujhar Khaira and decided he was worthy of returning in 2019-20 inside the bottom-six forwards. Today it’s Sam Gagner. We are looking for players who can: PK, score at 5-on-5, play more than one position, forecheck, win battles and play with an edge. 

Gagner can score at 5-on-5, his 1.62 total last season for two teams has him close to second-line production (there are 186 forwards at any given time who are top-six, Gagner was No. 196 at 5-on-5 points per 60. He’s a bona fide scorer in the discipline). Gags can also score on the power play, a luxury for a bottom-six forward.

Gagner is not a great center, but his faceoff percentage suggests he might be able to help on strong-side faceoffs. He remains a fine passer and has great vision.

At $3.15 million he is overpriced for the role he’ll play, but I think the offensive element he brings makes Sam a worthwhile roster player. A buyout saves $2.1 million this coming season. My vote is to keep him. You?

NIKITA ZAITSEV

His contract is a major stumbling block, but also an opportunity. If the Oilers could send Kris Russell to Toronto and take on Zaitsev’s deal with no retention, surely an attractive piece would also slide west? Zaitsev’s contract is $4.5 million times five more years, so the Oilers are a goner (they can’t take on that kind of cap for so many years), especially considering Bouchard and others are on the way. So, it’s a no-go for Edmonton. Just for kicks, what does Zaitsev look like using the Puck IQ numbers?

He doesn’t bring much offense, but did have a strong PP campaign in 2016-17. Moves the puck well, skates well, never skated under 20 minutes per game in any season. Here are the Leafs numbers from a year ago:

This is sorted by DFF Rel, Zaitsev struggled in the role this season but still played more (as a percentage) than anyone but Rielly. Toronto’s left side (assuming it is Rielly, Muzzin and Dermott) looks damned good. To bring it back to Edmonton, in terms of minutes versus elites and DFF% Rel, Zaitsev is a reasonable match for Adam Larsson’s season:

JAY WOODCROFT

Every day that passes without an announcement that Jay Woodcroft will return to Bakersfield is another nail in my heart. I’m going to suggest close to 10 prospects spiked under Woodcroft in his one Condors season, heaven help the poor bastard who has to follow him.

A coach with Dave Tippett’s resume is going to have a long list of people who he knows, we’ve heard Hakstol and Lamb as candidates before. It’s uncertain when we’ll finally get the news but with the draft and free agency ahead, suspect it can wait until summer.

HERE COMES THE SUN

My list is complete, I promised a top 100 but there are 120 names on my final list. The USHL and WHL dominate, a rare off year for the OHL but still plenty of talent from the Ontario league. It’ll be up tomorrow morning (I always publish final final June 1) and there’s a mock draft included with reasons for selections. One thing we don’t know: How much influence Ken Holland will have on the final selections.

I like Noel Hoefenmayer from this list, he’s a player my numbers liked in his draft year. I also like Jocktan Chainey, mostly because you can substitute his name for the title in this song.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260, we kickstart the weekend under blue skies and sunshine! I promise never to take either for granted again. At 10:20, Steve Lansky joins us from BigMouthSports to talk Raptors and SCF. At 10:45, Frank Seravalli will be live with his weekly segment, SCF, Oilers way forward and trade rumors. Matt Iwanyk talks Raptors, CFL and how he can help you be a better you, at 11:05! 10-1260 text @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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GordieHoweHatTrick

rickithebear:
DFF is the worst measure of differential performance.
As the guy who developed the true multi variable Open HD SH theory.
Which involves measure of
1. situational performance in multivariable (3d) team, comp, ZS
Puck IQ a academic binary (2D) partial ( inaccurate) measure of performance
2. Having first pointed out the HD SH area. Rickisbox you guys called it Around 07-08 to 09-10.
Struggling for the initial years trying to have you guys get it.
3. Were we first know importance of HD dmen establishing expected save%( goalies perform around) relative to corsi against yeilded by ( teamates) Forwards ( NZ trap success rate) and rovers (return rate (% ) back to a 2-1 structure in the HD area.) A situational 3D measure.
4. Then tried to get you to understand the differentiation between
Corsi that had 0% chance of going in and Corsi that hit open space in net Elevation ( open shot) the only shots required to be saved.
5. Identifying the best Dmen at creating highest % of0% Corsi per Corsi faced. Highest % of non scorable corsi ( blocks + misses + hit Goalies) who are an easy add in creating elite HD def pair with a top 60 HD dman in a 2-1 GA structure. Their skill and s wasted when paired with HD def nightmare rovers like Klefbom & Nurse. Really elite players victims of who they are played with.
6. You end up Identifying the best Open HD SH defensive pairs who establish low Open HD shot rates and establish low expected Save%.
7. Then you can identify the best goalies at Save % above expected Open HD shot save%
A goalie like repetitive top 3 goalie :Mike Smith.
Another top 10 open HD shot save% goalie victim to Calgary,s repetative bottom 3 expec Ed Open HD shot save % Defence.

All the data you present is binary and only covers portions of the 4 groups of multi variable data resulting in errors to each group from .2% to 300%.
One set of permutations being
A% x B% x C% x D%
A – Basic NZ trap measure error being 33% or higher
B – Basic Scoreable Open SH error being 300%
C – scorable attack of HD area based on D pairs side.
A dmen in a 1-1 GA def structure is not penalized for a rover not being their.
That failure is solely charged to the missing rover.
And rightly so.
So hearing fans discuss a d partners failings when they are the 1 in a 3-1-1-1 is laughable.

So I will not discuss Accurate Bolean data with you.

I will discuss play based on high win% system actions.

Larsson & Russell get Elite open HD SH results when playing in a 2-1 system.
Based on his past coaching
I think we have a coach that has NZ expectations for his forwards.
I think he wants a 2-1 structure when defending the DZ.

Benning is a top 60 HD dman in 2-1 play.

Based on even differential results from Bakersfield.
Laggesson & Bouchard are our best def prospects.

I would retain Nurse as our one rover with HD def potential.

Sekera
And
Klefbom

Have potential to re establish the top 125 fwd depth needed in my cup core roster theory.

Thanks for posting RTB!
Hope you are feeling better
I struggle to understand what you are saying sometimes but I value your insights

What would you do with the current and emerging D in Oil country?
Who would you keep?
Who would you trade? And when?

rickithebear

DFF is the worst measure of differential performance.
As the guy who developed the true multi variable Open HD SH theory.
Which involves measure of
1. situational performance in multivariable (3d) team, comp, ZS
Puck IQ a academic binary (2D) partial ( inaccurate) measure of performance
2. Having first pointed out the HD SH area. Rickisbox you guys called it Around 07-08 to 09-10.
Struggling for the initial years trying to have you guys get it.
3. Were we first know importance of HD dmen establishing expected save%( goalies perform around) relative to corsi against yeilded by ( teamates) Forwards ( NZ trap success rate) and rovers (return rate (% ) back to a 2-1 structure in the HD area.) A situational 3D measure.
4. Then tried to get you to understand the differentiation between
Corsi that had 0% chance of going in and Corsi that hit open space in net Elevation ( open shot) the only shots required to be saved.
5. Identifying the best Dmen at creating highest % of 0% Corsi per Corsi faced. Highest % of non scorable corsi ( blocks + misses + hit Goalies) who are an easy add in creating elite HD def pair with a top 60 HD dman in a 2-1 GA structure. Their skill and s wasted when paired with HD def nightmare rovers like Klefbom & Nurse. Really elite players victims of who they are played with.
6. You end up Identifying the best Open HD SH defensive pairs who establish low Open HD shot rates and establish low expected Save%.
7. Then you can identify the best goalies at Save % above expected Open HD shot save%
A goalie like repetitive top 3 goalie :Mike Smith.
Another top 10 open HD shot save% goalie victim to Calgary,s repetative bottom 3 expec Ed Open HD shot save % Defence.

All the data you present is binary and only covers portions of the 4 groups of multi variable data resulting in errors to each group from .2% to 300%.
One set of permutations being
A% x B% x C% x D%
A – Basic NZ trap measure error being 33% or higher
B – Basic Scoreable Open SH error being 300%
C – scorable attack of HD area based on D pairs side.
A dmen in a 1-1 GA def structure is not penalized for a rover not being their.
That failure is solely charged to the missing rover.
And rightly so.
So hearing fans discuss a d partners failings when they are the 1 in a 3-1-1-1 is laughable.

So I will not discuss Accurate Bolean data with you.

I will discuss play based on high win% system actions.

Larsson & Russell get Elite open HD SH results when playing in a 2-1 system.
Based on his past coaching
I think we have a coach that has NZ expectations for his forwards.
I think he wants a 2-1 structure when defending the DZ.

Benning is a top 60 HD dman in 2-1 play.

Based on even differential results from Bakersfield.
Laggesson & Bouchard are our best def prospects.

I would retain Nurse as our one rover with HD def potential.

Sekera
And
Klefbom

Have potential to re establish the top 125 fwd depth needed in my cup core roster theory.

GordieHoweHatTrick

ArmchairGM: Three years out and 1 of these guys will be playing in Seattle. Sambo and Bouch are exempt,Larsson is a UFA (not a single UFA was protected in the Vegas draft) so that leaves presumably Klefbom, Nurse and Jones on the protected list. We could see Lagesson or Bear in Seattle.

Yes I know
I am thinking they could resign Larsson
He has a unique skill set that complements the others
And mean

London Jon

ArmchairGM: Strome couldn’t piss a drop, remember? He wasn’t about to carry anybody.

He was unlucky. He’s been just fine in NYC

Jaxon

So I was just reading The Hockey News annual “Future Watch” edition. Rob Tychkowski did the Oilers’ write up. I would normally assume him to be an educated writer for all things Oiler even if I haven’t always agreed with him. But this is his to 10 Oilers prospects:
1. Evan Bouchard
2. Kailer Yamamoto
3. Caleb Jones
4. Kirill Maksimov
5. Joel Persson
6. Ryan McLeod
7. Dmitri Samurokov
8. John Marino
9. Cooper Marody
10. Ethan Bear

There’s a glaring omission that should not only be in the top 10 but possibly the top two. It must be a mistake and it probably also caused Benson to not be considered for the top 50 or top 100 prospects in the NHL. Personally, Is out him ahead of Yamamoto who wound up 43rd overall. This was done near the end of the season so we hadn’t seen Samurokov’s great playoff run yet otherwise he may be higher too.

Thoughts?

ArmchairGM

Pescador: I appreciate the work you put in on that.
Tor is not trading Kappen for two 2nd round picks let alone 1
So no

I explained my reasoning. Please explain yours.

If Kapanen signs a $4M offer sheet, what do the Leafs get in return? A 2nd round pick. Also, I’m not sure where your “let alone one” comment is coming from, I’m not trading 1.

ArmchairGM

GordieHoweHatTrick:
It early
I am jet – lagged and dreamy…
3 years out imagine:
Sam-Bouch
Klef-Lars
Lag-Jones
Nurse in there somewhere if he can be afforded.

Just got wood

Don’t trade these guys as sweeteners

Three years out and 1 of these guys will be playing in Seattle. Sambo and Bouch are exempt, Larsson is a UFA (not a single UFA was protected in the Vegas draft) so that leaves presumably Klefbom, Nurse and Jones on the protected list. We could see Lagesson or Bear in Seattle.

ArmchairGM

OriginalPouzar: Solid work and, for the most part, I don’t mind and make sense.

I do think it makes sense to stagger the Russell/Sekera dispositions with one this year and one next year (Russell this year, Sekera next year. Going to play devils’ advocate on a few things:

– I like betting on Burakovsky in the top 6 (wanted to grab him at the deadline and test him in the top 6) but having each of him, Puljujarvi and Benson in the top 6 – 3 bets with zeros assurances, is pretty risky.

– in the second year, that lineup is breaking in three rookie D that weren’t on the previous year’s roster (although I assume that at least 2, if not all 3, would get NHL time this year even if not breaking camp with the team).

– Lowe is the Condors’ captain and is simply not an NHL player, even as a #7 guy.I know the premise is that a youngster would get called up and play if there is an injury, but still.I would think it would be Manning at #7 (although I think he can, and should be, traded with $1M retained – net even to burying him on the cap).

Excellent feedback, thanks! To your points:

1. 3 question marks in the top-6: I tried to put together 2 lines I thought would be successful and a 3rd that would at least saw off. But, deployment is the job of the coach (I’m playing GM here) and we know all of Nugent-Hopkins, Kassian and Brown have played top-6 successfully in the past, so their are options. In Part 2, the whole 3rd line is made up of top-6 talent. So I’m not concerned about putting players into the top-6 as much as (a) getting more talent and speed on the roster, (b) getting younger players who will fit into the core group age-wise, and (c) putting players in positions to succeed. McDavid and Burakovsky played well together in junior, but if it doesn’t work out here Brown can step in. Also, Draisaitl and Nuge and Khaira are options as well. Again, I’m not the coach, just putting lines together that I think will work.

2. 3 rookie D: you are correct in assuming each of these players will get time in the NHL in 2019-20. Also, as stated in the Team Explanation, I have $6.7M in cap space, I don’t HAVE to trade both Sekera and Russell, I can easily keep one of them with room to spare. Alternatively I can remove one of the rookies from the roster and sign a guy like Pietrangelo for up to $7.7M and still slip in under the cap – even with paying Taylor Hall $9M. However, this complicates the cap situation for future years as the young players will need raises and the only significant salary coming off the books is Nugent-Hopkins and Larsson. So keeping Sekera for the duration of his contract is probably the safe route, as it means we can keep Nuge for the Dynasty Years and it puts less pressure on Cozens to step into his shoes. If the young players aren’t performing as well as I hope they will – and thus won’t be deserving of huge raises – then maybe having both Nuge and Pietrangelo is possible, but that remains to be seen.

3. Lowe as #7 D: the trouble with this year is the salary cap, I can’t afford to have Manning on the NHL roster, it has to be someone earning $850k or less. I don’t think Lowe is an NHL regular either, but he’s been a good soldier and I want him to earn an NHL paycheck… ok, that’s not really it, I don’t want any of the prospects sitting in the press box and I don’t want Lowe taking top-4 AHL ice from any of them either. So this is my compromise. Re-signing Gravel would be better I suppose, but then we still have too many defenseman in Bakersfield who need regular reps for proper development. It’s such a minor thing to be honest I didn’t spend much time worrying about it.

MattyIce

GordieHoweHatTrick,

Jet Lagessoned as well… this looks great! Don’t see Nurse?

I don’t think Ken will trade him unless the return is fairly massive…

Great future on the blue… never said that in my young life

jp

who:
Okay.. Back to ways to dispose of Lucic.
Let’s just say you had 2 options to move him.
Option 1 is to package him with one, or even two, of Benning/Bear/Lagesson. You retain 3 million on Lucic and get back a 7thround pick.
Option 2 is to package him with Caleb Jones. You retain nothing on Lucic and get back a 7th round pick.
Which option do you prefer?

I would definitely pull the trigger on option 2, and prefer it to option 1 by a lot. If Jones is the cost to be rid of 4x6M of Lucic, well that seems like a no brainer to me. There’s the possibility of CBA buyouts providing a better option, but we don’t know at this time.

The question becomes what is Jones’ upside? Pretty sure he doesn’t ever project as a $6M defenseman. And he’s 5 yrs from UFA, so he’s not cost controlled much beyond when Lucic is.

For option 1 vs option 2: Is Jones vs. Benning/Bear/Lagesson worth 4x3M? I like Jones, but he’s not worth that IMO. If Lucic + Jones for nothing is on the table I have a difficult time seeing the Oilers turning it down.

GordieHoweHatTrick

It early
I am jet – lagged and dreamy…
3 years out imagine:
Sam-Bouch
Klef-Lars
Lag-Jones
Nurse in there somewhere if he can be afforded.

Just got wood

Don’t trade these guys as sweeteners

OriginalPouzar

ArmchairGM: The Holland Bible:

https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/230153

https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/230154

Solid work and, for the most part, I don’t mind and make sense.

I do think it makes sense to stagger the Russell/Sekera dispositions with one this year and one next year (Russell this year, Sekera next year. Going to play devils’ advocate on a few things:

– I like betting on Burakovsky in the top 6 (wanted to grab him at the deadline and test him in the top 6) but having each of him, Puljujarvi and Benson in the top 6 – 3 bets with zeros assurances, is pretty risky.

– in the second year, that lineup is breaking in three rookie D that weren’t on the previous year’s roster (although I assume that at least 2, if not all 3, would get NHL time this year even if not breaking camp with the team).

– Lowe is the Condors’ captain and is simply not an NHL player, even as a #7 guy. I know the premise is that a youngster would get called up and play if there is an injury, but still. I would think it would be Manning at #7 (although I think he can, and should be, traded with $1M retained – net even to burying him on the cap).

Lightgestalt

Bag of Pucks,

He’d be a cancer in the locker room, I guess

Foege Foegele Torpe

ArmchairGM: The Holland Bible:

https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/230153

https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/230154

I appreciate the work you put in on that.
Tor is not trading Kappen for two 2nd round picks let alone 1
So no

ArmchairGM

flyfish1168: I don’t believe he would use the draft he would trade it for someone like Logan Brown that has really from 2016 draft to try and spend up the process.

Could be. I was referring to the whole Hall / Puljujarvi / Lucic thing.

ArmchairGM

OriginalPouzar: Presumably Russell is gone this off-season, and the money spent, and Sekera is gone next off-season, and the money spent.

The Holland Bible:

https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/230153

https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/230154

flyfish1168

I haven’t seen draft ranking or anyone saying Kaapo Kakko can go 1st overall. But I would be tempted after seeing his performance at the worlds and world junior. I like that he is a bigger body with that high skill level.

flyfish1168

ArmchairGM: Chiarelli Approach: draft Cozens, trade Nuge for pennies the next week.then sign Spezza for $6M to replace Nuge, then wonder why the team is in the toilet.

I don’t believe he would not use the draft. He would trade it for someone like Logan Brown that is closer to being NHL ready from 2016 draft to try and spend up the process.

OriginalPouzar

ArmchairGM: There will be plenty of money when Nuge’s contract expires, if he’s worth $9M then he’ll get that. It’s only a $3M raise, Sekera and Russell’s contracts expire at the same time. Easy peasy.

Presumably Russell is gone this off-season, and the money spent, and Sekera is gone next off-season, and the money spent.

ArmchairGM

Pescador: Nurse’s next contract is going to eat up almost $7Mil of the $9.5 though.
But the good news is I expect the cap to rise between $3M & $5M in the next two years so that will help.

No. Nurse’s raise will be roughly $3M, and it happens a year sooner than the RNH contract. Nurse’s money will come from the Gagner contract of $3.15M.

Foege Foegele Torpe

Death By Misadventure: Agreed.

Yet I can’t shake the feeling that Nuge wants out and it’s a reality we will have to deal with.

This sounds like Death by Misinformation
Trust me what Nuge wants is for the Oilers to make the playoffs & to play with consistent, Non shitty linemates.
Provide these things & when the Oilers offer him a raise, he will re-sign

Foege Foegele Torpe

ArmchairGM: There will be plenty of money when Nuge’s contract expires, if he’s worth $9M then he’ll get that. It’s only a $3M raise, Sekera and Russell’s contracts expire at the same time. Easy peasy.

Nurse’s next contract is going to eat up almost $7Mil of the $9.5 though.
But the good news is I expect the cap to rise between $3M & $5M in the next two years so that will help.

ArmchairGM

who: I think I would choose either of my options over keeping Lucic.
In fact, I’m not sure you can find another team that would agree to either option.

So you’d keep him then? Lol.

ArmchairGM

hunter1909: Bouchard gets called up by Christmas, or mid January at the latest. He’s that good.

This is likely what happens. I wouldn’t mind seeing him there for the whole season though – aside from a 9 game stint – and playoffs.

ArmchairGM

hunter1909: OBC Approach: “Sure but then we can cheer for him when his new team makes the finals, while the Oilers trade away their good players for magic beans. The Tier One fans eat it up”.

Ken Holland Approach: Keep good players, get more good players via the draft and AHL.

Chiarelli Approach: draft Cozens, trade Nuge for pennies the next week.then sign Spezza for $6M to replace Nuge, then wonder why the team is in the toilet.

ArmchairGM

Death By Misadventure: So what does Minny have to add to make it even?

Spurgeon with 50% retained? Not sure, I’d have to look at it. Zucker isn’t a top line winger, he’s 27 with a career average of 42 points per 82. We’d be better off targeting cheaper and younger players like Kapanen, Burakovsky and the like. Acquisition cost and signing cost would be cheaper for these players.

ArmchairGM

LadiesloveSmid:
Death By Misadventure,

Would have to commit to Draisaitl at 2C if they trade RNH.

If Skinner’s getting 9M, Nuge might get close to that in UFA 2 summers from now. Zucker is signed 2 years longer at slightly cheaper.

Feels like a move that doesn’t turn the dial now, and might help 2 years down the road. I’d hope they could get him for less and then potentially let Nuge walk if he wants too much money.

There will be plenty of money when Nuge’s contract expires, if he’s worth $9M then he’ll get that. It’s only a $3M raise, Sekera and Russell’s contracts expire at the same time. Easy peasy.

Scungilli Slushy

ArmchairGM: Strome couldn’t piss a drop, remember? He wasn’t about to carry anybody.

I know

But a lot of players had the same problem

With previous established success. Something else is going on, hopefully Tippet rectifies that.

OriginalPouzar

CrazyCoach: I bit the bullet this season and bought an AHL pass, and the improvement in Bakersfield this season was a pleasant surprise.Much improvement from the beginning of the till the final game of the playoffs.Woodcroft did a great job in developing players. Sadly, Wood croft will be lost to another team if he continues on his current trajectory.

I’m not naive to think this team is ready to challenge anytime soon, but it feels like some small steps have been made.As some would say, it is Next Year Country or in our case, Next Season Country.

I would also give some credit to Dave Manson for his work with the defence.

Lagesson improved month over month.

who

ArmchairGM: My model keeps Lucic as the cost to dispose is too great*. Maybe there will be a compliance buyout (enough teams need one) or maybe the cost to convince Seattle to take him will be palatable, but I think he’s staying for the next 2 years at least.

* We don’t actually know what the market is, but that’s my sense of it.

I think I would choose either of my options over keeping Lucic.
In fact, I’m not sure you can find another team that would agree to either option.

who

ArmchairGM: Why do people think Jones is worth twice – or four times – what Bear is worth?

Bear + Lagesson + $3M is equal to just Jones in your opinion??

Yes I guess so.
I am willing to pay considerably more for the higher upside.

pts2pndr

CrazyCoach: I barely saw Samuarkov play this season, so I can’t offer an opinion, but I did a couple write ups on Jones for the Cult of Hockey and my fear at the time was that Jones tended to get beat to his left side, but that was probably because he was playing on his offside the times I watched him.

I would caution on bringing Samorukov along too fast.This franchise’s history in pushing kids too far too fast is well documented and I don’t to see Samorukov nor Evan Bouchard pushed too hard.With JOnes pretty much stamping his ticket to the big team next year, why not have an Option “C” where you keep the kids on D and can offer Lucic along with Russel to really clear out the salary cap?

I would be all in on that. I don’t think we have a large enough sample size to accurately access the young D’s abilities as NHL D moving forward. The ideal scenario is having their play push the team to make room for them. Throwing good money after bad is a fools errand way to get rid of Lucic’s contract in my opinion.

CrazyCoach

OriginalPouzar: What is going to be very nice about this coming season, is actual NHL ready players skilled players with top 4/top 6 potential, ready and waiting for call-up.

I bit the bullet this season and bought an AHL pass, and the improvement in Bakersfield this season was a pleasant surprise. Much improvement from the beginning of the till the final game of the playoffs. Woodcroft did a great job in developing players. Sadly, Wood croft will be lost to another team if he continues on his current trajectory.

I’m not naive to think this team is ready to challenge anytime soon, but it feels like some small steps have been made. As some would say, it is Next Year Country or in our case, Next Season Country.

JOFA

who:
Okay.. Back to ways to dispose of Lucic.
Let’s just say you had 2 options to move him.
Option 1 is to package him with one, or even two, of Benning/Bear/Lagesson. You retain 3 million on Lucic and get back a 7thround pick.
Option 2 is to package him with Caleb Jones. You retain nothing on Lucic and get back a 7th round pick.
Which option do you prefer?

Neither. Giving up way too much.

OriginalPouzar

CrazyCoach: Very true and with Joel Persson coming, it’s nice to be able to have a conversation about the Oilers defence that isn’t based on a deficit model.

What is going to be very nice about this coming season, is actual NHL ready players skilled players with top 4/top 6 potential, ready and waiting for call-up.

OriginalPouzar

hunter1909: Bouchard gets called up by Christmas, or mid January at the latest. He’s that good.

Then, like Larry Robinson before him, he will struggle with the NHL game for up to half of his 1st NHL shift.

Bouchard looked NHL ready offensively last season, and is a big sturdy dude who doesn’t get pushed around by anyone. By this time next year Lowetide posters will be talking up his pending 8X8 million contract lol

His offensive game being NHL ready was never really the question though. Yes, he did make a few nice transition passes per game but he also made 2-3 plays per game that directly led to high danger scoring chances against and, in the last few games, goals against. That was all in a very sheltered third pairing role.

He’ll be a year older and a year further developed and hopefully with some solid 5 on 5 AHL time and then we’ll see where he’s at.

You could be right.

He could need more time.

CrazyCoach

OriginalPouzar: Lagesson is right there with Jones – both well ahead of Bear.

Different type of player but he is just as NHL ready and just as good (in different ways).

Very true and with Joel Persson coming, it’s nice to be able to have a conversation about the Oilers defence that isn’t based on a deficit model.

OriginalPouzar

pts2pndr: My thought is Samorukov will blow past Jones this year like he is parked. Jones skating is special but he still gets beat one on one and samorukov has a more accurate and harder shot. Samorukov also is more physical.

Samorukov is simply a better defender – I think many get blinded by the major offensive spike but he was drafted as a defence first guy. He is a great defender who is physical, great on the boards and extremely aggressive at defending the blue-line.

While his skating may not be at Jones’ level, he is a plus skater who has good offensive instincts and vision in transitioning the puck.

Who knows how he’ll develop but he ceiling is much higher than Jones’.

Rondo

Off the board picks for the Oilers Broberg and Newhook.

hunter1909

ArmchairGM: I wouldn’t mind seeing Bouchard play a full season in Bakersfield.

Bouchard gets called up by Christmas, or mid January at the latest. He’s that good.

Then, like Larry Robinson before him, he will struggle with the NHL game for up to half of his 1st NHL shift.

Bouchard looked NHL ready offensively last season, and is a big sturdy dude who doesn’t get pushed around by anyone. By this time next year Lowetide posters will be talking up his pending 8X8 million contract lol

hunter1909

Death By Misadventure: Agreed.

Yet I can’t shake the feeling that Nuge wants out and it’s a reality we will have to deal with.

lol

Its all of those weddings and meetups with Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle; with tales from the big city.

He’s not free until his contract expires, so Ken Holland will let him be an Oiler for the start of the season, and Tippet the new coach will use him in a way that makes him want to stick around.

Just my two cents.

CrazyCoach

ArmchairGM: Jones and Bear both have 2 AHL seasons already and aren’t sure things for the NHL roster yet.

I watched a lot of Bakersfield this season and Jones looks ready. Maybe not 1st pairing ready, but I cold see him playing 12-15 minutes a night with the big club. Bear is about a season or two still away from the big leagues. My guess is that he may be passed by Bouchard by seasons end.

Either way you slice it, the future looks bright for the D corps.

hunter1909

godot10:
Trading Nugent-Hopkins just creates a massive new problem.The OIlers have abysmal centre depth in the organization already.

OBC Approach: “Sure but then we can cheer for him when his new team makes the finals, while the Oilers trade away their good players for magic beans. The Tier One fans eat it up”.

Ken Holland Approach: Keep good players, get more good players via the draft and AHL.

OriginalPouzar

CrazyCoach: I think I would go for option 1 with Benning.

The upside on Jones is tremendous.

Lagesson is right there with Jones – both well ahead of Bear.

Different type of player but he is just as NHL ready and just as good (in different ways).

Death By Misadventure

godot10:
Trading Nugent-Hopkins just creates a massive new problem.The OIlers have abysmal centre depth in the organization already.

Agreed.

Yet I can’t shake the feeling that Nuge wants out and it’s a reality we will have to deal with.

godot10

Trading Nugent-Hopkins just creates a massive new problem. The OIlers have abysmal centre depth in the organization already.

Jordan

who:
Okay.. Back to ways to dispose of Lucic.
Let’s just say you had 2 options to move him.
Option 1 is to package him with one, or even two, of Benning/Bear/Lagesson. You retain 3 million on Lucic and get back a 7thround pick.
Option 2 is to package him with Caleb Jones. You retain nothing on Lucic and get back a 7th round pick.
Which option do you prefer?

Option 2.

If Jones is the price to get out of Lucic’s contract scott free, I pay it and run away giggling.

Jones is good, and I’d like to keep him, but if he gets us out without retaining, that 6M dollars available.

That’s almost enough to buy Anders Lee for 4-6 years. That’s enough to bring in a legit top 6 winger, not a Chiasson, or a Reider, or another gamble.

That gets this team way closer to the playoffs than anything other single move we can do, and there are not additional costs.

Jones has upside, but right now he’s a 6th dman with upside.

Not worth a top 6 winger in his prime.

JMO.

Death By Misadventure

ArmchairGM: Zucker carries MUCH less value than Nuge.

So what does Minny have to add to make it even?

I ask cause I genuinely think that one of the stories of the offseason might just be Nuge on the way out.

Not because Holland wants him out but because he wants out.

His cap is $6m so that’s not nothing. And he would have tremendous trade value.

Apologies if anyone thinks I’m here trolling. I’m not. Genuinely concerned Oilers fan here.

godot10

Kinger_Oil.redux: – I wonder if the 3 years to Tippet is a “nod” to Woodcroft having the opportunity to be head coach someday?Wouldnt’ that be something….

I think it is tighter budgets at OEG due to non-renewal of premium seating. MacT out, Coffey out, Barry Stafford retiring. Don Metz leaving. JJ Hebert leaving. The gravy train is leaking gravy.