Here Comes the Sun (2019)

Today I’m posting my final list for 2019’s draft. It’s miles before most of the other lists and shouldn’t resemble any other. I have a long list of things that factor into the rankings below, math is the number one component and then I tweak things based on things heard and seen about skating and other issues. I love doing this each year, hope you enjoy reading.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group. INSANE OFFER IS HERE!

  • New Lowetide: NHL Combine brings Oilers dual problems into focus for Ken Holland
  • New Lowetide: Analyzing the Oilers roster to see which players fit Dave Tippett’s ‘aggressive, fast team’ approach
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Dave Tippett’s coaching philosophy, how he relays information to his players and why information is king
  • Lowetide: What will Ken Holland see in Evan Bouchard?
  • Lowetide: Does Oilers’ signing of Joakim Nygard signal a measured approach to summer 2019?
  • Lowetide: Dave Tippett’s roster deployment in Arizona and what it might mean for the Oilers
  • Jonathan Willis: Why Ken Holland’s worst years in Detroit tell us the most about how he’ll fare in Edmonton
  • Jonathan Willis: Three offseason scenarios and how each one would affect the Oilers salary cap
  • Lowetide: Examining the Oilers’ goaltending options in free agency.
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s Oilers could go the high octane procurement route but will need a driver
  • Lowetide: How much can Connor Brown help the Oilers?
  • Lowetide: Dmitri Samorukov is off to the Memorial Cup and is the Oilers’ fastest rising prospect
  • Jonathan Willis: Craig MacTavish leaves the Oilers, signalling the first major front office change under Ken Holland
  • Lowetide: What kind of coach should Ken Holland hire for the Oilers?
  • Jonathan Willis: Every Oilers AHL prospect, rated by how close they are to the NHL
  • Jonathan Willis: A resurgent Andrej Sekera gives the Oilers much-needed defensive options
  • Lowetide: Is Joe Gambardella destined to become the Oilers’ next Fernando Pisani?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Protector, supporter, confidant: Connor McDavid’s mom, Kelly, is his off-ice rock through good times and bad
  • Lowetide: An offseason plan for Ken Holland to remodel the Oilers roster.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland steadfast that buck stops with him as new Oilers GM.
  • Lowetide: How will Ken Holland proceed in Year 1 as Oilers general manager?
  • Jonathan Willis: What does the arrival of Ken Holland mean for the Oilers coaching search?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Prioritizing the roster issues that await Ken Holland in Edmonton.
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s procurement list for his rumored move to Edmonton will include front-office personnel
  • Jonathan Willis: A Milan Lucic trade is at the top of the to-do list for the Oilers’ next GM.

PRELUDE

I use NHLE as a strong guiding light. I also use scouting reports from trusted sources and publications. I punish average to poor foot speed liberally. My list list rewards offense heavily, and the most gifted offensive players will be at the top. Players with a range of skills usually do well, but there is a fine line between a two-way player and a checking future (Nolan Foote and Samuel Poulin would have been higher on this list a few years ago).

If you play significant minutes on the No. 3 line during your draft year, that’s a factor. I have found that slicing numbers into even/PP doesn’t separate the wheat from the chaff. If you have big boxcars, you spend time on the power play. If you do not, that’s a tell. The list does not give high numbers to players who have a lot of their value tied up in the defensive side of the game. 

Goalies are graded (almost exclusively) by save percentage, success over more than one season has terrific value.

I view Bob McKenzie’s list as the draft Bible. Corey Pronman has been an education for years now, his final list is hereScott Wheeler is a unique voice, his final list is here. His use of video and description of each player are welcome now and will be vital on draft day. 

Craig Button’s list has high value for me, I like the fact he has the courage of his convictions. I pay attention to Red Line Report. Their scouting reports are the industry standard. Simon Boisvert is a wonderful resource. He’s on the Lowdown often and he’s a very wise man. Steve Kournianos guides me through the draft season with his fantastic site and insight. I value McKeens, Grant McCagg, Tom Hunter, Brock Otten, Adam Sherren, ISS. I do have conversations with scouts in junior hockey and they are very helpful.

Mark Edwards Black Book (Hockey Prospect.com) is a brilliant reference. His release last year has been very useful for this year’s draft. Highly recommended. If there’s one publication I would suggest purchasing, it would be Edwards.

I have been following the NHL draft since 1971, so can blame politics, Guy Lafleur, Marcel Dionne and the Edmonton Oil Kings for this obsession. Each year has a wrinkle, this year’s it’s the USHL. The American junior league delivered an historic crop of talent and that will be reflected from beginning to end of this year’s selection.

One final thing. This year, more than any other, I’ve received a lot of pushback in regard to my rankings, specifically Arthur Kaliyev. A reminder: My rankings are math based, so a scout might have several reasons to exclude him from the top 10 or top 40. That’s cool. I’m not stealing his work. On the other hand, I’ve had several people in the scouting community send messages about Moritz Seider. I’m convinced my previous ranking was too low, based on vague NHLE conversion. So, in short, I’ll move a player up if convinced the math doesn’t surround him but will remain stubborn on a productive player in an established league. I think that’s reasonable. I will tell you that math works well, looking back through past lists. I had Alex DeBrincat No. 15 in 2016, he had an NHLE of 44. Arthur Kaliyev’s NHLE is 38.2. I have him where he belongs.

With that, here we go.

The 120 best players in the 2019 draft

1 (1) LC Jack Hughes, U.S. National Development Team (USHL). He’s 5.10, 168 but an absolute rocket who takes no time at all to reach high speed, and he can make hockey plays at peak speed consistently.

2 (2) R Kaapo Kakko, Turkku (Sm-Liiga). He’s 6.02, 190 and already flourishing in the Sm-Liiga. Scouts rave about his advanced two-way game and ability to control the pace of play.

3 (3) LHD Bowen Byram, Vancouver (WHL). A complete skill set, dynamic skater, effective in all areas. Best D out of the west since Cale Makar.

4 (4) LC Alex Turcotte, U.S. National Development Team (USHL). A strong two-way reputation, he is skilled and an excellent skater. Spiked late in rankings due to fading healthy worries.

5 (5) L Arthur Kaliyev, Hamilton (OHL). He scored 51-51-102 in 67 OHL games, age 17. I’ve read about skating, hockey sense and playing on the perimeter. I can’t ignore the math. A June 2001.

6 (6) RC Kirby Dach, Saskatoon (WHL). A dynamic player with size and tremendous skill, has speed, wingspan and an excellent release.

7 (7) R Dylan Cozens, Lethbridge (WHL). Size, skill and he can skate. Range of skills, accurate shooter. He and Dach are basically equal.

8 (9) LC Trevor Zegras, U.S. National Development Team (USHL). Undersized and highly skilled, elusive and aggressive with very good speed. I think he’s a Ken Holland type.

9 (8) R Cole Caufield, U.S. National Development Team (USHL). He’s small, fast and a ridiculous scorer. Quick release, accurate. Does he drive to danger areas?

10 (10) LC Peyton Krebs, Kootenay (WHL). Skill forward who can score, he has quick feet and good hands.

11 (12) LD Cam York, U.S. National Development Team (USHL). The latest impact puck mover out of the USHL, great speed, passing and creativity.

12 (13) L Matthew Boldy, U.S. National Development Team (USHL). Bigger winger with skill, he’s strong on the puck and can score goals.

13 (11) LC Connor McMichael, London (OHL). He has good speed and lots of skill, effective shot. Responsible. 36 goals, he’s a January 2001. Owns the dreaded projectable frame.

14 (14) L Jakob Pelletier, Moncton (QMJHL). Undersized skill winger with two-way ability. Intelligent, consistent and creative, great skater. Impressive production (39-50-89 in 65 games), including 5-on-5 (65, 27-28-55).

15 (15) LD Thomas Harley, Mississauga (OHL). Good size, elite skater, he’s an August 2001. Posted 11-47-58 in 68 games. Excellent puck handler and passer, his year over year spike is remarkable.

16 (18) LD Philip Broberg, AIK (Allsvenskan). He’s big and can skate like the wind, while also displaying puck moving ability. Offense may be shy, but Swedish blue can fool you.

17 (21) R Vasili Podkolzin, St. Petersburg (MHL). Smart player with tons of offensive ability, but also possesses good two-way instinct and no fear. Scouts love him, his numbers lagged after Hlinka/Gretzky. June birthday.

18 (16) LC Alex Newhook, Victoria (BCHL). Fast and skilled center, visually he’s among the most intoxicating skaters available this year. He dominated the BCHL at about the same pact as Tyson Jost in the same league, same age.

19 (19) R Bobby Brink, Sioux City (USHL). Small, fast and very skilled, he’s an intelligent player with great vision. He could be a bargain.

20 (17) LC Ryan Suzuki, Barrie (OHL). Great vision, skill, tremendous passer. If he were faster, he’d be top five. Mike Morreale says he’s the best draft eligible playmaker in the OHL this season.

21 (20) RD Victor Soderstrom, Brynas (SHL). Impressive offensive player. Good skater, good decisions, very quick. A terrific prospect.

22 (23) RC Philip Tomasino, Niagra (OHL). Underrated player with impressive skill, spike offensively year over year has him here. 30 5-on-5 goals.

23 (22) L Brayden Tracey, Moose Jaw (WHL). Flew up the ranking late, his goal-scoring prowess (33 in 66) a major selling point.

24 (24) LD Matthew Robertson, Edmonton (WHL). He’s had some injury issues but has also emerged as a fairly complete defender.

25 (25) L Nick Robertson, Peterborough (OHL). Undersized skill winger with a sixth sense as a goal scorer. Impressive at Top Prospects.

26 (27) RC Raphael Lavoie, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL). Adam Sherren: “Lavoie is a big physical force who is that old fashioned power forward.” He is a strong skater and has a goal-scorer’s touch. Aggressive, a force.

27 (26) R Nathan Légaré, Baie Comeau Drakkar (QMJHL). Power winger who can score goals, he can find open ice and cash (45 goals in 68 games) and drives to the net with abandon.

28 (30) L Egor Afanasyev, Muskegon (USHL). His numbers are outstanding, plus he’s a big forward with a powerful stride and an excellent shot. I like him plenty.

29 (41) RD Moritz Seider, Mannheim (DEL). An actual teenage giant (6.04, 198) with a Condor wingspan. He’s a good passer and has decent speed.

30 (28) L Nolan Foote, Kelowna (WHL). Power forward with skill, not certain he’s a future scorer on an NHL skill line.

31 (29) LD Ville Heinola, Lukko (Sm-Liiga). A mature player for his age, two-way talent with good speed and calm feet. Excellent passer.

32 (31) LC Blake Murray, Sudbury (OHL). Big center with plus speed and a scoring touch. A July 2001.

33 (32) F Samuel Fagemo, Frolunda (SHL). I liked him a year ago, no reason to change now. A bona fide shooter, he has more clarity in his game now.

34 (39) L Nils Hoglander, Rogle (SHL). A small skill winger, he can beat defensemen clean. More playmaker than scorer, but has a quick release and an effective shot.

35 (33) RC Brett Leason, Prince Albert (WHL). He is 20. Impressive scorer, massive year over year spike (36 goals in 55 games this year).

36 (34) LD Tobias Björnfot, Djurgardens (SuperElite). Outstanding speed, he has impressive offensive talent but is an adventure without the puck.

37 (35) RD Anttoni Honka, Jyp (Sm-Liiga). Draft Analyst: Swift skating puck rusher who knows how to handle the puck and has the kind of mobility that keeps forecheckers honest.

38 (37) R Maxim Cajkovic, Saint John (QMJHL). Fantastic skater has impressive potential, played for a poor team that limited opportunity. His offensive output is miles behind his potential ala Peyton Krebs.

39 (36) G Spencer Knight, US National Team (USHL). A .929 save percentage in the USHL and a mountain of positive scouting reports have him as the top goaltender in this year’s draft.

40 (42) L Pavel Dorofeyev, Magnitogorsk (MHL). Dangerous skill winger who has a quick release, heavy shot and a sixth sense about where to be and when to be there.

41 (38) RD Lassi Thomson, Kelowna (WHL). Mobile, skilled defenseman with good speed.

42 (40) LC Jamieson Rees, Sarnia Sting (OHL). Undersized skill forward who works hard on the forecheck. Terrific speed and a great motor.

43 (43) R Albin Grewe, Djurgardens (SHL). Rugged winger with skill. I think he’s the kind of player who will be drafted by Boston, Philadelphia or Anaheim.

44 (44) LC Karl Henriksson, Frolunda (SuperElite). Small and very skilled forward, he is a cerebral player in the offensive zone. He might be a steal.

45 (45) L Robert Mastrosimone, Chicago (USHL). Some scouting reports have him as a top tier scoring prospect, he has skill for sure.

46 (46) G Mads Søgaard, Medicine Hat (WHL). Posted a strong season (.921). He is 6.06. Danish goalie had a solid year in the NAHL a year ago.

47 (47) L Vladislav Firstov, Waterloo Blackhawks (USHL). Skill winger has a plus shot and delivered impressive results in his first North American season. I think he’ll land in the third round but that shot might get him drafted sooner.

48 (53) RD Drew Helleson, US National Development Team (USHL). Impressive puck moving defender, his speed/size will make him popular on draft weekend.

49 (51) L Ethan Keppen, Flint (OHL). Good speed, size (6.02, 214) and skill (30-29-59 in 68, 24 goals at 5-on-5).

(50) (50) L Patrik Puistola, Leki (Mestis). High skill, consistent scorer who also plays a responsible game beyond his years. My kind of player.

51 (49) LC Yegor Spiridonov, Magnitogorsk (MHL). Tenacious two-way winger with impressive skill.

52 (48) LD Henry Thrun, US National Team (USHL). He’s a two-way defender who delivered sold offense (23 points in 28 games). Lacks one outstanding skill, that might cause him to slide.

53 (52) L Samuel Poulin, Sherbrooke Phoenix (QMJHL). Smart, two-way player who delivers a heavy game, speed is just okay. He can fend off defenders while buying time to find an outlet, and then deliver a quality pass.

54 (57) L Antti Saarela, Lukko (Sm-Liiga). ISS: Smart and gifted, quality stick skills. Noticeable on PP and PK.

55 (54) RC Shane Pinto, Lincoln/Tri City (USHL). Big RHC is intriguing because of his size (6.02, 192) and scoring prowess (28 goals in 56 games). He’s a November 2000.

56 (56) L Dillon Hamaliuk, Seattle (WHL). Promising numbers (31, 11-15-26) before losing his season to injury. Strong, great forechecker and he has skill.

57 (55) RD Billy Constantinou, Kingston (OHL). Fast as lightning, high risk and reward defender.

58 (58) R Leevi Aaltonen, Kalpa (Jr Sm-Liiga). ISS: “Slick offensive play-maker, undersized but highly skilled.”

59 (60) G Pyotr Kochetkov, HK Ryazan (VHL). Huge goalie performed well in two Russian junior leagues and posted a .953 SP at the World Juniors. He might be the second goalie taken (behind Knight).

60 (62) LD Mikko Kokkonen, Jukurit (Sm-Liiga). Two-way defender who adjusted quickly in Finland’s best league. No dominant skill, across the board good.

61 (63) R Graeme Clarke, Ottawa ’67s (OHL). Pure scorer (20 goals in 49 games) who has been famous for some time. Good skater, great shot.

62 (64) L Adam Beckman, Spokane (WHL). Among the best scorers in the league under 18, he posted 32 in 68 games. Averages 2.46 shots per game.

63 (59) LD Daniil Misyul, Lokomotiv (MHL). At 6.03, 176, Misyul offers NHL teams an intriguing size/speed combination on the blue line. Raw and not close to the sum of his parts, he would be a reasonable bet because of potential.

64 (66) RW Simon Holmstrom, HV71 (SuperElite). Elite Prospects: A deft skater with some explosiveness to his game.. has remarkable passing ability and likes to set up teammates from below the goal line.

65 (61) LC John Beecher, US National Development Team (USHL). Center with good size and two-way ability, Black Book has him as having “certain power forward elements to his game” including a strong skating style.

66 (65) R Tuukka Tieksola, Karpat (Jr Sm-Liiga). Small skill winger, great passer and skating.

67 (67) (NR) LD Alex Vlasic, US National Development Team (USHL) Big defender who will probably make his living on the defensive side of the puck, he’s 6.06, 192.

68 (68) L Nando Eggenberger, Oshawa Generals (OHL). Two-way talent, enjoyed a solid year in the OHL (he was eligible last season). I’m not sure anyone will take him, but Red Line loves him.

69 (71) R Judd Caulfield, US National Development Team (USHL). He’s a power forward who HockeyProspect.com said “is capable of penetrating through defense using his above-average hands and excellent edges” a year ago.

70 (72) LD Vladislav Kolyachonok, Flint Firebirds (OHL). Mike Morreale: “The Belarusian can skate and think the game so well.” Good passer, massive wingspan.

71 (73) L Marcus Kallionkieli, Sioux City (USHL). He scored 29 goals in 58 games, that’s excellent production. He’s 6.01, plus shot, he could be a steal in a deep draft of USHL scorers.

72 (74) R Luka Burzan, Brandon (WHL). A January 2000, so an older prospect. He scored 40 goals in 68 games. Speed, skill, works hard.

73 (75) LC Nikita Alexandrov, Charlottetown (QMJHL). Skill center who can impact the game as a passer or scorer. Good balance, he is aggressive and can make exceptional skill plays. Lacks consistency.

74 (76) LC Matias Maccelli, Dubuque (USHL). He’s got all kinds of skill, that’s going to get him drafted. A October 2000, he was dominant (62, 31-41-72) in the USHL last season.

75 (69) G Hunter Jones, Peterborough (OHL). He’s a big goalie who has a solid reputation, but .902SP saw me fading him.

76 (81) LC Oleg Zaitsev, Red Deer (WHL). A physical two-way center with impressive skating and passing skill. Great along the wall, patient.

77 (77) RW Filip Koffer, Padrubice (Czech). Nice hands, he showed well at the U18’s. He isn’t well known and may not be picked, but he has real skill.

78 (78) LD Albert Johansson, Farjestads (SuperElite). The scouting reports give us a picture of a fairly complete defenseman. That’s the best scouting report.

79 (79) LC Matvei Guskov, London Knights (OHL). Another solid two-way center, I like his complete skill set.

80 (80) R Dmitri Sheshin, Magnitohorsk (MHL). Undersized skill winger is something of a wizard with the puck. Good not great speed, an intriguing skill player.

81 (82) LD Mike Vukojevic, Kitchener (OHL). Big defender has good speed and is a powerful defender. Has some offense, he’s a shutdown type.

82 (NR) LC Reece Newkirk, Portland (WHL). Undersized skill center exploded in his second junior season (68, 23-36-59). Good speed, has skill.

83 (85) RD Ronnie Attard, Tri-City (USHL).He’s a 1999, so all of the numbers are skewed. Still, he’s a giant with a bomb for a shot and that has appeal.

84 (86) LD Artemi Knyazev, Chicoutimi (QMJHL). Two-way defenseman, he is a quality skater. Makes good passes, has puck moving ability.

85 (NR) LC Alexei Protas, Belarus (Belarus). Listed under European list, he is in fact rolling like a Mack truck for the Prince Albert Raiders this spring. He’s 6.05, 195, and has great hands.

86 (88) G Colten Ellis, Rimouski (QMJHL). Has posted two quality seasons in a row, with SP’s of .913 and .910 in two consecutive seasons. It’s more rare than you’d think.

87 (89) RW Michal Teply, Liberic (Czech). Big scoring winger has some footspeed issues

88 (90) LD Ryan Johnson, Sioux Falls (USHL). Smart, mobile defender who hasn’t shown offensive ability.

89 (NR) LD Maxence Guenette, Val d’Or (QMJHL). Smart two-way defenseman, he improved markedly offensively this season. I’m surprised there isn’t more buzz about him.

90 (92) LC Oscar Bjerselius, Djurgardens (SuperElite). Good speed and size, he’s a solid two-way forward with enough offense to project him into pro hockey. Does he have enough offense to play in the NHL someday?

91 (NR) R Sasha Mutala, Tri-City (WHL). He has good speed and size, scored 20. Impressive at Hlinka, solid but unspectacular during the season.

92 (NR) LC Mikhail Abramov, Victoriaville (QMJHL). Small forward with plus speed and passing ability. 54 points in 62 games.

93 (NR) R Alex Beaucage, Rouyn-Noranda (QMJHL). Impressive scorer has a quick release on his wrist shot, it’s good enough for 39 goals. His speed keeps him outside the higher regions but he’s worth a draft pick.

94 (91) LD Semyon Chistyakov, Ufa (MHL). Small defender who skates well and passes the puck with skill. He’ll need some luck.

95 (97) R Martin Lang, Kamloops (WHL). Impressive skill winger is barely eligible for the draft (Sept 15, 2001). 11-22-33 in 65 games.

96 (NR) RW Yevgeni Oksentyuk, Shahkter (Belarus). Small and highly skilled, he rocked the U18’s.

97 (NR) R Wiljami Myllylä, HIFK (Jr Sm-Liiga). Speed demon, has been posting gaudy scoring numbers for several years.

98 (NR) RD Simon Lundmark, Linkoping (SHL). A fascinating player, Lundmark’s scouting reports talk about his vision and outstanding outlet passing. He may go late but the potential is impressive.

99 (NR) LD Nikita Okhotyuk, Ottawa 67’s (OHL). Big defender plays a two-way game. He can pass or carry, may have more offense than numbers imply.

100 (NR) LD Mattias Norlinder, MoDo (Allsvenskan). I like the league a lot and his skills and performance are worth a bet. Offensive defenseman.

101 (83) R Josh Williams, Edmonton (WHL). Terrific skater and impressive skill, lack of consistency saw him slide a long way during the season.

102 (NR) RD Cole Moberg, Prince George (WHL). Good mobility, can move the puck and posted good numbers. October 2000.

103 (NR) LD Gianni Fairbrother, Everett (WHL). Puck moving defenseman came on as the season wore along, he’s a Sept 2000 so he’s a little lower on my list.

104 (95) L Daniil Gutik, Yaroslavl (MHL). Streaky scorer with outstanding ability, he’s not a burner.

105 (NR) R Aku Raty, Karpat (Jr Sm-Liiga). Skill winger who also provides solid play without the puck. Average speed.

106 (NR) R Cole Schwindt, Mississauga (OHL). Strong two-way play are one thing but his offense (68, 19-30-49) represents huge progress. He’s a April 2001.

107 (NR) LW Premysl Svoboda, Litvinov (Czech U19). Torched his junior league (32, 22-33-55), has been dominating all the way through junior. November 2000.

108 (96) LC Valentin Nussbaumer, Shawinigan (QMJHL). Two-way center is a quality skater, delivered less offensively than expected in 2018-19.

109 (NR) RD Antti Tuomisto, Assat (Jr Sm-Liiga). Puck moving blue, good skater and has an excellent shot. Some chaos.

110 (NR) LC Luke Toporowski, Spokane (WHL). Undersized skill forward who can play all three positions. Plays with an edge.

111 (NR) RD Jordan Spence, Moncton (QMJHL). Outstanding skater who makes good decisions with the puck. A two-way defender, his size (5.10, 164) will be an issue due to the position he plays.

112 (NR) LD Justin Bergeron, Rouyn-Noranda (QMJHL) . He isn’t getting mentioned at all, but Bergeron has good speed, creativity and is a good defender.

113 (NR) LD Marshall Warren, US National Development Team (USHL). I have a healthy respect for blue from this program, Warren can skate and has a plus shot.

114 (NR) RD Kaedan Korczak, Kelowna (WHL). Shutdown defender with good speed, he’ll go far higher than I have him.

115 (NR) G Jonathan Lemieux, Val d’Or (QMJHL). A nice step forward year over year (.902, from .867) and he was buried by an awful team in year one.

116 (NR) LD Layton Ahac, Prince George (BCHL). Big defender with good speed, he’s a shutdown type and may go higher than my ranking.

117 (NR) LD Domenick Fensore, US National Development Team (USHL). Great skater, very skilled, his size (5.07) a concern for his position.

118 (NR) LC Harrison Blaisdell, Chilliwack (BCHL). Two-way center, just over a point per game in tier-two league. He’d be higher but the point total is a concern.

119 (NR) LC Lukas Wernblom, Modo (Allsvenskan). I’m all over the Allsvenskan like a fly on stink. That league has found a formula that works. Wernblom is a 2000, very skilled and smart.

120 (NR) L Yegor Chizhikov, Cherepovets (MHL). Haven’t read a thing on him, but he’s a July birthday and scores in every league they send him to, he’s worth a pick.

OILERS MOCK DRAFT

First round, No. 8 overall — LC Trevor Zegras, U.S. National Development Program (USHL). My estimates have the top 7 (in order) as Hughes, Kakko, Byram, Turcotte, Dach, Cozens, Caufield, meaning the choice will come down to Zegras v. Krebs v. Boldy v. Kaliyev (no one thinks Kaliyev is going that high, but I’m including him because he belongs based on my numbers). Zegras is not the ideal (Caufield) choice for need, and I do believe the Oilers would prefer Dach or Cozens. Enormous potential. Craig Button: “I would take Trevor Zegras. Zegras reminds me so much of Elias Pettersson.”  He was 5.10, 159 one year ago, currently 6.0, and one-quarter inch, 173 pounds. If the Oilers draft him, you’ll love him. Seriously. NHLE: 32.8

Second round, No. 38 overall — L Jakob Pelletier, Moncton (QMJHL). I have him inside my top 15 overall but Pelletier will go much later. An intelligent player with great hands, cerebral and creative. He would be a candidate to play with one of Edmonton’s top end centers a couple of years down the line. He’s 5.09, 160. NHLE: 27.5

Third round, No. 85 overall —  L Adam Beckman, Spokane (WHL). I have him No. 62, so this might be aggressive. There are several math reasons to like this player, volume shooter. NHLE: 21.7

Fourth round, No. 100 overall —  LD Mattias Norlinder, MoDo (Allsvenskan). Elite Prospects says he’s a great skater with good offensive instincts and a great first pass. He’s 6.0, 181, and a April 2000. NHLE: 12.7

Sixth round, No. 162 overall —  R Kirill Slepets, Lokomotiv (KHL). He’s an April 1999 and could go much earlier, but there’s a chance he slides. He’s small and skilled, dangerous off the rush. 5.10, 146. NHLE: 15.6

Seventh round, No. 193 overall —  L Nicholas Porco, Saginaw (OHL). He has plus speed and scored 20 goals on a deep Spirit team and might be a little under the radar because of it. NHLE: 13.5

PROJECTED PROSPECT PIPELINE

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93 Responses to "Here Comes the Sun (2019)"

  1. flyfish1168 says:

    LT Thank you very much for the hard work and time you put into this. Much enjoyed and appreciated.

  2. flyfish1168 says:

    If I was the NJD I would be tempted to draft Kaapo Kakko. After seeing his performance at the worlds and world junior. I like that he is a bigger body with that high skill level. Kakko seems to not mind the tough areas versus being just peripheral areas of the play.

  3. Oil2Oilers says:

    Up early and excited, my favorite draft expert has published! Thanks LT

  4. Rondo says:

    Don’ t think Oilers would take Zegras if he was available at #8. Oilers don’t need another play making C.

    How good is Zegras without Hughes.

    I’d rather have Krebs, Boldy or Podkolzin, using your rankings

  5. Brantford Boy says:

    Thanks LT, I look forward to your final list every year… cheers!

    Still hoping for Dach to fall to 8th though… I guessed right with Bouchard a year ago so you never know…

  6. Silver Streak says:

    Rondo:
    Don’ t think Oilers would take Zegras if he was available at #8. Oilers don’t need anotherplay making C.

    How good is Zegras without Hughes.

    Zegras is Nuge 2…..Perfect succession planning..gives him a year of two to mature his game…can`t have too many centres with skill.

  7. J-Bo says:

    He’s consistently rated as a late second round pick, but I’m hoping that the Oilers either trade up to get Nick Robertson or that he falls to them in the second round. I’m not sure who I’m hoping for with the number 8, but Robertson is my favourite in the draft and will watch where he goes with interest. Kaliyev will make for a great draft and follow to test your methods LT. Love it!

  8. digger50 says:

    Fantastic work LT. Such an excellent job and effort put in year after year. Love it

    And thanks to many others here for compiling draft information, analyzing and presenting to the group. It’s much apreciated.

  9. Glovjuice says:

    Looks like after all the top 7 is where we needed to be. Most of the expert takes a few months back were just need to be top 8 but 7 ended up being the zone. Bummer. Of course, that last big win though- yikes.

  10. Glovjuice says:

    Oh, and, glorious song by Sir George.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=JNS_SUmCJm4#fauxfullscreen

  11. leeinvan says:

    It’s a huge year for Yamo who has been lapped by other players.
    He cannot afford another season like the last two, for me anytime you draft a tiny player there is a risk of injuries.
    He simply does not have a frame that can handle the beating these players have to take.
    He has had 3-4 different injuries since he was drafted, hopefully the injuries are now behind him.

    The finals are showing you the type of players you need to get that far, small and quick is fine but it only takes one big hit and in Yamo’s case he is out for weeks or months.
    In this draft I would like the Oiler’s to draft a player with size, is there a huge difference between a player being drafted 8th to 12, probably not, take a player with a frame that is built to take the punishment.

  12. OriginalPouzar says:

    In all honestly, the full draft threads are not my favorite – I mean, I can’t keep track of a hundred plus prospects along with everything else so I need to focus on the Oilers.

    We can have some sort of reasonable certainty that the first round pick of the Oilers is going to be on of 5 or so players and I value the above information with respect to those players as I focus on them in my readings and research.

    At the same time, even though this type of thread isn’t for me, I absolutely respect and admire the work that goes in to it and how valuable it is to many others.

    Kudos LT for yet another high end piece.

  13. Jaxon says:

    So I was just reading The Hockey News annual “Future Watch” edition. Rob Tychkowski did the Oilers’ write up. I would normally assume him to be an educated writer for all things Oiler even if I haven’t always agreed with him. But this is his to 10 Oilers prospects:
    1. Evan Bouchard
    2. Kailer Yamamoto
    3. Caleb Jones
    4. Kirill Maksimov
    5. Joel Persson
    6. Ryan McLeod
    7. Dmitri Samurokov
    8. John Marino
    9. Cooper Marody
    10. Ethan Bear

    There’s a glaring omission that should not only be in the top 10 but possibly the top two. It must be a mistake and it probably also caused Benson to not be considered for the top 50 or top 100 prospects in the NHL. Personally, Is out him ahead of Yamamoto who wound up 43rd overall. This was done near the end of the season so we hadn’t seen Samurokov’s great playoff run yet otherwise he may be higher too.

    Thoughts?

  14. Pescador says:

    Jaxon:

    1. Evan Bouchard
    2. Tyler Benson
    3. Dimitri Samorukov
    4. Caleb Jones

    Thoughts?

    I agree

  15. Pescador says:

    Silver Streak: Zegras is Nuge 2…..Perfect succession planning..gives him a year of two to mature his game…can`t have too many centres with skill.

    Exactly always need more centers.
    29 & 93 have played alot of wing over the last 2 seasons.
    The results have been excellent
    Centers can play wing, the other way around?
    not so much

  16. who says:

    Jaxon:
    So I was just reading The Hockey News annual “Future Watch” edition. Rob Tychkowski did the Oilers’ write up. I would normally assume him to be an educated writer for all things Oiler even if I haven’t always agreed with him. But this is his to 10 Oilers prospects:
    1. Evan Bouchard
    2. Kailer Yamamoto
    3. Caleb Jones
    4. Kirill Maksimov
    5. Joel Persson
    6. Ryan McLeod
    7. Dmitri Samurokov
    8. John Marino
    9. Cooper Marody
    10. Ethan Bear

    There’s a glaring omission that should not only be in the top 10 but possibly the top two. It must be a mistake and it probably also caused Benson to not be considered for the top 50 or top 100 prospects in the NHL. Personally, Is out him ahead of Yamamoto who wound up 43rd overall. This was done near the end of the season so we hadn’t seen Samurokov’s great playoff run yet otherwise he may be higher too.

    Thoughts?

    No Benson has to be an oversight. Right?
    His whole list looks kind of wonky to me.
    Yamamoto at 2?
    Maksimov at 4???
    Marino in the top 10?????? He’s not even signed!
    Bizarre!

  17. godot10 says:

    Taking Zegras or Caufield over Krebs will prove to be a mistake.

  18. Mr DeBakey says:

    who: No Benson has to be an oversight. Right?
    His whole list looks kind of wonky to me.
    Yamamoto at 2?
    Maksimov at 4???
    Marino in the top 10?????? He’s not even signed!
    Bizarre!

    Not bizarre.
    Typical.
    For both Tychkowski and THN.

  19. stevebergeron97 says:

    flyfish1168:
    If I was the NJD I would be tempted to draft Kaapo Kakko.After seeing his performance at the worlds and world junior. I like that he is a bigger body with that high skill level. Kakko seems to not mind the tough areas versus being just peripheral areas of the play.

    I think based on need, they will want a true #1 centre. Nico will be a fabulous 2nd line centre.

  20. Mr DeBakey says:

    24 (24) LD Matthew Robertson, Edmonton (WHL). He’s had some injury issues but has also emerged as a fairly complete defender.

    70 (72) LD Vladislav Kolyachonok, Flint Firebirds (OHL). Mike Morreale: “The Belarusian can skate and think the game so well.” Good passer, massive wingspan.

    Looking at these two, by the numbers, i don’t see 45+ spots between them.
    I have both in my “Good Gets at 38 Pile”

  21. Munny says:

    godot10:
    Taking Zegras or Caufield over Krebs will prove to be a mistake.

    well-argued.

    /s

  22. McNuge93 says:

    leeinvan:
    It’s a huge year for Yamo who has been lapped by other players.
    He cannot afford another season like the last two, for me anytime you draft a tiny player there is a risk of injuries.
    He simply does not have a frame that can handle the beating these players have to take.
    He has had 3-4 different injuries since he was drafted, hopefully the injuries are now behind him.

    The finals are showing you the type of players you need to get that far, small and quick is fine but it only takes one big hit and in Yamo’s case he is out for weeks or months.
    In this draft I would like the Oiler’s to draft a player with size, is there a huge difference between a player being drafted 8th to 12, probably not, take a player with a frame that is built to take the punishment.

    But speed is essential in today’s game and the Oilers are lacking. If the pick has size they also need above average speed.

  23. Munny says:

    Pescador: Exactly always need more centers.
    29 & 93 have played alot of wing over the last 2 seasons.
    The results have been excellent
    Centers can play wing,the other way around?
    not so much

    What we need is goal-scorers, shooters, snipers… Emphasizing total points over goals is a mistake IMO. Scoring goals is the hardest thing to do at the NHL level. If they’re not a goal-scorer in Juniors…

  24. Munny says:

    Jaxon,

    No one remembers the butler.

    *Doorbell rings”

    “BENSON!”

    “…D’you want me to get that?”

  25. godot10 says:

    Munny: well-argued.

    /s

    It was a prediction, not an argument. I wasn’t trying to persuade you.

  26. Munny says:

    stevebergeron97: I think based on need, they will want a true #1 centre. Nico will be a fabulous 2nd line centre.

    I think Hughes might have a long path to becoming a true #1 at the NHL level. Maybe 5-6 years. And there’s no guarantee he gets there. He’s not MacKinnon, Tavares good IMO.

    He reminds me of Yzerman to a certain degree. Who could put up points early on, but got his head caved in defensively. As did the Wings because they were relying on Y to be the #1 and gave him no cover.

  27. Munny says:

    godot10: It was a prediction, not an argument.I wasn’t trying to persuade you.

    Ah, so equally baseless.

    Tell us why you think it will prove to be a mistake there Swami.

  28. godot10 says:

    Munny: What we need is goal-scorers, shooters, snipers…Emphasizing total points over goals is a mistake IMO.Scoring goals is the hardest thing to do at the NHL level.If they’re not a goal-scorer in Juniors…

    McDavid and Draisaitl are the goal scorers you are looking for. I want forwards with a broad range of skills to complement them, not one dimensional types. With forwards with a broad range of skills, one will be able to move McDavid and Draisaitl around to find better matchups vs opponents.

    Crosby realized mid-career that he and Pittsburgh would be better if he scored a lot more, rather than being the playmaker.

    Note: Krebs has a broader range of skills than Zegras or Caufield.

  29. Side says:

    godot10: It was a prediction, not an argument.I wasn’t trying to persuade you.

    Your use of “prove to” seems to imply it is an argument, by it’s very definition

    “demonstrate the truth or existence of (something) by evidence or argument”

  30. godot10 says:

    Side: Your use of “prove to” seems to imply it is an argument, by it’s very definition

    “demonstrate the truth or existence of (something) by evidence or argument”

    That is the connotation of prove in a different context, and particular a different tense, the present.

    prove:

    If something proves to be true or to have a particular quality, it becomes clear after a period of time that it is true or has that quality. If you prove that something is true, you show by means of argument or evidence that it is definitely true.

    I used prove in the first context, not in the second.

  31. godot10 says:

    I use a relative evaluation process. I look at all the data I have between two players and determine which of the two I prefer to have. I don’t have time or the energy to produce a list of 120 players. But amongst a handful of players, I am more than willing to rank them.

    In February, I think I asserted Byram, Cozens, Krebs, Dach.

    Lately, after the under 18’s, I put Zegras, Caufield, and Boldy all after those four.
    The two Swedish defensemen, I put after those four.

    Podkolzin is Russian. I have no confidence in the Oilers organization to develop him.

  32. JimmyV1965 says:

    I think it’s fantastic LT that you love something so much that you spend countless hours producing such an extensive list. Do you have some examples in previous drafts where you ranked someone much higher than most other lists, similar to Kaliyev?

  33. JimmyV1965 says:

    Jaxon:
    So I was just reading The Hockey News annual “Future Watch” edition. Rob Tychkowski did the Oilers’ write up. I would normally assume him to be an educated writer for all things Oiler even if I haven’t always agreed with him. But this is his to 10 Oilers prospects:
    1. Evan Bouchard
    2. Kailer Yamamoto
    3. Caleb Jones
    4. Kirill Maksimov
    5. Joel Persson
    6. Ryan McLeod
    7. Dmitri Samurokov
    8. John Marino
    9. Cooper Marody
    10. Ethan Bear

    There’s a glaring omission that should not only be in the top 10 but possibly the top two. It must be a mistake and it probably also caused Benson to not be considered for the top 50 or top 100 prospects in the NHL. Personally, Is out him ahead of Yamamoto who wound up 43rd overall. This was done near the end of the season so we hadn’t seen Samurokov’s great playoff run yet otherwise he may be higher too.

    Thoughts?

    The entire list is out of whack. Yamo #2? Hmm. Samaroukov should be the second highest player coming out of junior, ahead of Maksimov and McLeod.

  34. Professor Q says:

    Jaxon:
    So I was just reading The Hockey News annual “Future Watch” edition. Rob Tychkowski did the Oilers’ write up. I would normally assume him to be an educated writer for all things Oiler even if I haven’t always agreed with him. But this is his to 10 Oilers prospects:
    1. Evan Bouchard
    2. Kailer Yamamoto
    3. Caleb Jones
    4. Kirill Maksimov
    5. Joel Persson
    6. Ryan McLeod
    7. Dmitri Samurokov
    8. John Marino
    9. Cooper Marody
    10. Ethan Bear

    There’s a glaring omission that should not only be in the top 10 but possibly the top two. It must be a mistake and it probably also caused Benson to not be considered for the top 50 or top 100 prospects in the NHL. Personally, Is out him ahead of Yamamoto who wound up 43rd overall. This was done near the end of the season so we hadn’t seen Samurokov’s great playoff run yet otherwise he may be higher too.

    Thoughts?

    At least Bouchard is there this year?

  35. John Chambers says:

    Spencer Knight will be drafted in the first round, perhaps even top-20.

  36. leadfarmer says:

    John Chambers:
    Spencer Knight will be drafted in the first round, perhaps even top-20.

    Yes and Broberg may go top 10

  37. Gerta Rauss says:

    Thanks for effort LT

    I’ve still got my fingers crossed for Cozens

  38. unca miltie says:

    LT, any thoughts on Eric Van Impe of Medicine Hat or Blake Stevenson of Tri Cities. They grew up neighbors in Calgary. Dad’s are friends of mine. Any chance either gets drafted?

  39. jp says:

    Munny: What we need is goal-scorers, shooters, snipers…Emphasizing total points over goals is a mistake IMO.Scoring goals is the hardest thing to do at the NHL level.If they’re not a goal-scorer in Juniors…

    Matt Barzal.

  40. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Thanks LT!
    All in for skilled forwards in the first 3 rounds!

  41. dustrock says:

    Thanks very much for this as always LT. Bookmarked and will be the Bible on draft day.

    I absolutely would take a flyer on Fensore late, I think he has a shot.

  42. Scungilli Slushy says:

    To me the things the org were historically bad at might not be the same anymore. Like ‘Russians’ and hosing prospects. Holland is a different animal than Lowe, MacTavish and Sutter.

    I’m also wondering how Howson is hanging on.

    Great list LT thanks. I’m hoping for one of the big fast RC.

  43. blackadder says:

    Pescador,

    You could make a good argument for any of Jones, Samourakov or Benson as the #2 prospect, but Yamamoto seems to be ranked more on where he was drafted than on his progress. Marody would be my pick at #5, above Yamamoto as well based on how quickly he adapted to the AHL as a rookie.

  44. Gerta Rauss says:

    Update on Patrik Berglund and why he walked away from $13M

    https://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/GARTHS-CORNER/Berglund-In-A-Better-Place/6/99760

  45. Death By Misadventure says:

    Probably greedy, but Dylan Cozens and Nathan Légaré in rounds 1 and 2 please.

    After that I don’t care.

    Sincerely,

    Person who dreams each year that this is the draft that sets up the Oilers for a decade.

  46. Death By Misadventure says:

    godot10:
    Taking Zegras or Caufield over Krebs will prove to be a mistake.

    Curious to know what gives you such confidence to make such a definitive statement.

    I don’t know much about Krebs beyond the fact he played on a crap team.

  47. Death By Misadventure says:

    Munny: What we need is goal-scorers, shooters, snipers…Emphasizing total points over goals is a mistake IMO.Scoring goals is the hardest thing to do at the NHL level.If they’re not a goal-scorer in Juniors…

    Agreed.

    Can’t remember the exact research but I believe goals are the best indicator of future NHL success.

    So yeah, I’m hoping for a Nathan Légaré pick at 38.

    45 goals don’t happen by chance.

  48. Glass says:

    I think it’s fair to say Hughes, Kakko, Byram, Dach, and Turcotte are off the table at 8. I don’t think Cozens slides that far. We may see a ‘surprise’ pick like Caufield going top 6.

    My personal rankings based on what’s likely available:
    1. Zegras
    2. Krebs
    3. Boldy
    4. Caufield

    Zegras has such a high ceiling. Very good creativity. Conversely I’m not sold on Krebs having a high ceiling but I think he’s a safe bet to contribute in the top 6. He’s good at everything, not necessarily elite in any one attribute besides perhaps hockey IQ. His intangibles are great though, in that he has leadership qualities and competes very hard.

    I don’t think we should shy away from a center because of our center depth. Nuge has what, 2 years remaining? He’s had so many different coaches since he’s been here, not much success, has watched his friends been run out of town. If he decides to test out free agency, at least we have one of Zegras or Krebs ready to step in on their draft +3 year.

    Our center depth remains intact.

  49. Death By Misadventure says:

    leadfarmer: Yes and Broberg may go top 10

    I’ve been scratching my head trying to think which team ahead of the Oilers jumps the shark and picks a player completely out of order.

    Think Hayton Barrett last year going at #5, but mostly ranked in the 12-15 range all year if I recall.

    If that happens once or twice (like it did last year) we will be pleasantly surprised at who is left on the board.

  50. godot10 says:

    Death By Misadventure: Curious to know what gives you such confidence to make such a definitive statement.

    I don’t know much about Krebs beyond the fact he played on a crap team.

    There is no glory in sitting on the fence.

  51. Side says:

    Death By Misadventure: Curious to know what gives you such confidence to make such a definitive statement.

    I don’t know much about Krebs beyond the fact he played on a crap team.

    He looks at “all of the data he has”, duh.

  52. jp says:

    Thanks for the list LT, it’s a wonderful resource.

    Hopefully the Oilers chase skill throughout the draft. And with Holland’s history and Gretzky’s recent draft tendencies (for instance the Yamamoto pick), just maybe we see Kaliyev picked at #8. Incredibly impressive numbers.

  53. Yeti says:

    Glass: I don’t think we should shy away from a center because of our center depth. Nuge has what, 2 years remaining? He’s had so many different coaches since he’s been here, not much success, has watched his friends been run out of town. If he decides to test out free agency, at least we have one of Zegras or Krebs ready to step in on their draft +3 year.
    Our center depth remains intact.

    Yes. And, given that we often play our centres on the wing – and that we have crappy prospect depth at the position – there is absolutely no reason to avoid picking one.

  54. Professor Q says:

    godot10: There is no glory in sitting on the fence.

    We’re all (fence) posters here.

  55. leadfarmer says:

    Death By Misadventure: I’ve been scratching my head trying to think which team ahead of the Oilers jumps the shark and picks a player completely out of order.

    Think Hayton Barrett last year going at #5, but mostly ranked in the 12-15 range all year if I recall.

    If that happens once or twice (like it did last year) we will be pleasantly surprised at who is left on the board.

    Absolutely. Happens every year. Someone is going to look at this crop of USNDP players and go I don’t know what the heck to do with all these undersized guys and who is zooming who so I’ll just take this 6’3 smooth skating Swede.
    Which will shock people but the boom bust potential of this years crop after top 3 is quite high. And he is still 17.

  56. OriginalPouzar says:

    leeinvan:
    It’s a huge year for Yamo who has been lapped by other players.
    He cannot afford another season like the last two, for me anytime you draft a tiny player there is a risk of injuries.
    He simply does not have a frame that can handle the beating these players have to take.
    He has had 3-4 different injuries since he was drafted, hopefully the injuries are now behind him.

    The finals are showing you the type of players you need to get that far, small and quick is fine but it only takes one big hit and in Yamo’s case he is out for weeks or months.
    In this draft I would like the Oiler’s to draft a player with size, is there a huge difference between a player being drafted 8th to 12, probably not, take a player with a frame that is built to take the punishment.

    Injury is starting to become a concern with Yamamoto and its the only reason for a down arrow. Once he gained some traction in the AHL last year he showed that he was an elite player at that level. Even playing with the likes of Esposito and Vesel, he started to drive the play and create scoring chances shift after shift. His scoring rates are actually quite good.

    He really needs to have a healthy year next year and just play games, night over night, at the AHL level – assuming healthy, I predict he’s at or near a PPG.

    I just hope the org doesn’t bring him up if the Oilers struggle out of the gate as he’s got 9 points in his first 10 games – but him in the the Bake and forget about him for at least a few months,

  57. OriginalPouzar says:

    who: No Benson has to be an oversight. Right?
    His whole list looks kind of wonky to me.
    Yamamoto at 2?
    Maksimov at 4???
    Marino in the top 10?????? He’s not even signed!
    Bizarre!

    If we are going to go off the board a bit, I take Kemp over Marino as well – I don’t think Marino is going to sign with the Oilers.

  58. Hitman77 says:

    If centers Hughes, Turcotte, Dach, Zegras, and Cozens are gone by our eighth pick, I’d draft Newhook. This is assuming Kakko and Byram are gone too.

  59. OriginalPouzar says:

    Death By Misadventure: I’ve been scratching my head trying to think which team ahead of the Oilers jumps the shark and picks a player completely out of order.

    Think Hayton Barrett last year going at #5, but mostly ranked in the 12-15 range all year if I recall.

    If that happens once or twice (like it did last year) we will be pleasantly surprised at who is left on the board.

    Yup, and it pretty much happens every year, doesn’t it? In addition to Hayton, Kotkaniemi didn’t emerge as a legit top 10 option until very late when every one decided there needed to be a center ranked higher.

  60. ArmchairGM says:

    leeinvan:
    It’s a huge year for Yamo who has been lapped by other players.
    He cannot afford another season like the last two, for me anytime you draft a tiny player there is a risk of injuries.
    He simply does not have a frame that can handle the beating these players have to take.
    He has had 3-4 different injuries since he was drafted, hopefully the injuries are now behind him.

    The finals are showing you the type of players you need to get that far, small and quick is fine but it only takes one big hit and in Yamo’s case he is out for weeks or months.
    In this draft I would like the Oiler’s to draft a player with size, is there a huge difference between a player being drafted 8th to 12, probably not, take a player with a frame that is built to take the punishment.

    This attitude really, really gets under my skin. I used to compete as a featherweight in mma events, and the guys I competed with were some of the toughest guys I know. It’s common practice to train with guys 30-50 lbs heavier.

    Your “frame” has nothing to do with whether you are injury prone or not, nothing at all.

  61. gimme shelter says:

    In your mock draft you picked a LD at 4. I would like to go all forward this year,instead take pick 101.
    He is from some strange town in AB,oh yeah Edmonton.I think we have plenty of LD in the pipeline
    And we need more talent at forward. 4th round is not a sure thing anyway. Just my personal opinion.

  62. Lowetide says:

    JimmyV1965:
    I think it’s fantastic LT that you love something so much that you spend countless hours producing such an extensive list. Do you have some examples in previous drafts where you ranked someone much higher than most other lists, similar to Kaliyev?

    The DeBrincat draft I had him No. 15, that seems to be the one most people mention.

  63. Lowetide says:

    ArmchairGM: This attitude really, really gets under my skin. I used to compete as a featherweight in mma events,and the guys I competed with were some of the toughest guys I know. It’s common practice to train with guys 30-50 lbs heavier.

    Your “frame” has nothing to do with whether you are injury prone or not, nothing at all.

    Two things: There’s a large group of Oilers fans who are down on Yamamoto but there’s miles to go. One of the interesting things about Yamamoto is his production since his draft season:

    Draft year: 1.52 points-per-game in the WHL
    Draft +1: 1.60 points-per-game in the WHL

    So, the “struggle” in his draft plus one season consists of increasing his point per game total while also having an up and down season because the Oilers kept him in the NHL.

    The hand injury this season had an impact, and even with that he was money in the AHL when healthy. Miles to go, and we can post online with certainty but that’s not the same as knowing how this story ends.

  64. pts2pndr says:

    Munny: What we need is goal-scorers, shooters, snipers…Emphasizing total points over goals is a mistake IMO.Scoring goals is the hardest thing to do at the NHL level.If they’re not a goal-scorer in Juniors…

    There are a large number of centres that cover both bets. If two players are close in skill the best bet is almost always the centre. Normally you will get a player with a higher hockey IQ and better defensive awareness.

  65. leadfarmer says:

    Lowetide: The DeBrincat draft I had him No. 15, that seems to be the one most people mention.

    We both had Pettersson higher than every other list.

  66. pts2pndr says:

    Lowetide: Two things: There’s a large group of Oilers fans who are down on Yamamoto but there’s miles to go. One of the interesting things about Yamamoto is his production since his draft season:

    Draft year: 1.52 points-per-game in the WHL
    Draft +1: 1.60 points-per-game in the WHL

    So, the “struggle” in his draft plus one season consists of increasing his point per game total while also having an up and down season because the Oilers kept him in the NHL.

    The hand injury this season had an impact, and even with that he was money in the AHL when healthy. Miles to go, and we can post online with certainty but that’s not the same as knowing how this story ends.

    I hate to say it LT but it is this kind of loyalty MacT had for Eakins that caused us much grief. It is also your loyalty that makes me hope that you are right. Thanks for all you do!

  67. ArmchairGM says:

    pts2pndr: I hate to say it LT but it is this kind of loyalty MacT had for Eakins that caused us much grief. It is also your loyalty that makes me hope that you are right. Thanks for all you do!

    It’s not loyalty, it’s facts. Even though Yamamoto struggled this year, he still outperformed his draft position in terms of goal-scoring.

  68. ArmchairGM says:

    Lowetide: Two things: There’s a large group of Oilers fans who are down on Yamamoto but there’s miles to go. One of the interesting things about Yamamoto is his production since his draft season:

    Draft year: 1.52 points-per-game in the WHL
    Draft +1: 1.60 points-per-game in the WHL

    So, the “struggle” in his draft plus one season consists of increasing his point per game total while also having an up and down season because the Oilers kept him in the NHL.

    The hand injury this season had an impact, and even with that he was money in the AHL when healthy. Miles to go, and we can post online with certainty but that’s not the same as knowing how this story ends.

    Thanks LT. I wasn’t even speaking to Yamamoto specifically, but the whole size bias. I tend to think more of Yamamoto than many here, so I appreciate your comments. And the hand injury… that is hardly size-related, is it? Anyone can get slashed on the hand. The size issue is WAY overblown IMO.

  69. OriginalPouzar says:

    Yamamoto’s actual play on the ice is pretty much where it should be expected to be for a 22nd overall draft pick. The main issue is he simply hasn’t played enough games at the proper level, the American Hockey League. After finally being re-assigned, it took him a bit to gain traction but, once he did, he performed as one would expect a 1st round pick to perform – then the damn injuries derailed his season.

    He is going in to his second pro season and, if he was assigned to Bakersfield in the first week of October last year and able to play 50 plus games, I would suggest he would be a real option to make the team.

    Reasonable expectation of a 22nd overall pick is not have played any NHL games by this point and I think the organization did a major disservice, twice, by not assigning him to the proper league early. Not only has in hampered his development but I believe it also has put unreasonable expectations on his speed of development.

  70. Ben says:

    Q for the group:

    You have 2-3 top prospects rated so closely that BPA is essentially a toss-up. What’s your next most salient criteria? Fit with style of play? Roster fit (unique/redundant skill set)? Local roots/bloodline gobbledygook?

  71. Scungilli Slushy says:

    ArmchairGM: Thanks LT. I wasn’t even speaking to Yamamoto specifically, but the whole size bias. I tend to think more of Yamamoto than many here, so I appreciate your comments.And the hand injury… that is hardly size-related, is it? Anyone can get slashed on the hand. The size issue is WAY overblown IMO.

    So why aren’t there more very small players in the league? Bias so overblown teams won’t use the best players available?

  72. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Ben:
    Q for the group:

    You have 2-3 top prospects rated so closely that BPA is essentially a toss-up. What’s your next most salient criteria? Fit with style of play? Roster fit (unique/redundant skill set)? Local roots/bloodline gobbledygook?

    Always need. There aren’t that many sure bets in any draft, after the top 3-5 depending on the year.

  73. Lowetide says:

    Ben:
    Q for the group:

    You have 2-3 top prospects rated so closely that BPA is essentially a toss-up. What’s your next most salient criteria? Fit with style of play? Roster fit (unique/redundant skill set)? Local roots/bloodline gobbledygook?

    I would go for the “up the middle” player, be it defense, center or goal. After that, need (I changed my answer after seeing Slushy’s comment.

  74. ArmchairGM says:

    Scungilli Slushy: So why aren’t there more very small players in the league? Bias so overblown teams won’t use the best players available?

    Correct. Except for Tampa, apparently.

  75. ArmchairGM says:

    Ben:
    Q for the group:

    You have 2-3 top prospects rated so closely that BPA is essentially a toss-up. What’s your next most salient criteria? Fit with style of play? Roster fit (unique/redundant skill set)? Local roots/bloodline gobbledygook?

    Speed and motor would excite me most.

  76. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Ben:
    Q for the group:

    You have 2-3 top prospects rated so closely that BPA is essentially a toss-up. What’s your next most salient criteria? Fit with style of play? Roster fit (unique/redundant skill set)? Local roots/bloodline gobbledygook?

    My two-bits; roster fit

    Meaning NEED

  77. McSorley33 says:

    Awesome work LT

    How to sort out this US kids passing to each other vs a guy like Krebs?

    Read a few articles highlighting this regarding the US kids.

  78. Scungilli Slushy says:

    ArmchairGM: Correct. Except for Tampa, apparently.

    As an example of playoffs success? Balance as LT says. Tampa has bigger D and smaller forwards, and no heavyweight. It leaves them vulnerable as we’ve seen to being played ‘heavy ‘ and it is working as we’ve seen.

    To use your MMA example, there is only one weight class in the NHL. Being undersized is a disadvantage but not a deal breaker.

    I have no problem with size, but in any sport there is a typical size, because that body type suits the job.

    I think drive is the most important trait to be a successful pro athlete, thankfully the new GM referred to that as ‘motor’, he gets it.

    I think Yama has the drive, he needs some luck. He’s the type that can overcome being 30 – 50 lbs lighter than the player he’s battling.

    I think JP has it, all of the best prospects. Now that I believe they have help in Holland and Woodcroft it’s exciting.

  79. flyfish1168 says:

    Lowetide,

    OriginalPouzar,

    I was really cheering for us to draft Henri Jokiharju

  80. Oilman99 says:

    Lowetide: Two things: There’s a large group of Oilers fans who are down on Yamamoto but there’s miles to go. One of the interesting things about Yamamoto is his production since his draft season:

    Draft year: 1.52 points-per-game in the WHL
    Draft +1: 1.60 points-per-game in the WHL

    So, the “struggle” in his draft plus one season consists of increasing his point per game total while also having an up and down season because the Oilers kept him in the NHL.

    The hand injury this season had an impact, and even with that he was money in the AHL when healthy. Miles to go, and we can post online with certainty but that’s not the same as knowing how this story ends.

    Yamamoto’s struggles to compete for pucks in the corners, and along the boards when he was with the big club are very concerning for me. It seemed that he ended up on his ass way too easy, and he didn’t appear to be solid enough on his skates. Maybe some work in the weight room could help .

  81. Oil2Oilers says:

    Is there anyone that currently puts out a draft place trade calculator?

    Something like in the NFL where pick #22 is worth picks #38 & #56. I believe I have seen an NHL one before but can’t remember where.

    The reason I ask is LT has me sold on Arthur Kaliyev, but it seems very likely that he falls to late in the first round. If this happens I would be all for the Oilers bundling #38 and other picks to move up an grab him.

  82. RonnieB says:

    ArmchairGM: Speed and motor would excite me most.

    This is why i like Jamieson Rees with the 2nd round pick. He has that Brendan Gallagher type motor.

  83. GBandQ says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    I’m also wondering how Howson is hanging on.

    He’s really good at Powerpoint.

  84. RedArmy says:

    After reading this, and visiting a dispensary, I spent too much time thinking about wanting to draft Spencer Knight. So I solved it, Lucic, Russell, JP and the cap in three moves. Left the team approx 3.859 in cap space.

    Draisaitl McDavid Connolly
    Benson Nuge Hornqvist
    Sheary Marody Kassian
    Nygard Kharia Gagner
    Gambardella Cave

    Klefbom Larsson
    Nurse Benning
    Sekera Jones
    Persson

    Koskinen
    Jarry

    -Russell to BUF for Sheary
    -Puljujarvi, Lucic, 2019 EDM 1st to PIT for Hornqvist, Jarry, 2109 PIT 1st
    -Sign Connolly 5yr/25 million (ufa’s are expensive)
    -Draft Knight

  85. pts2pndr says:

    ArmchairGM: It’s not loyalty, it’s facts. Even though Yamamoto struggled this year,he still outperformed his draft position interms of goal-scoring.

    Having watched him against his counterparts I was less than impressed. I will cheer for him because I am a loyal Oiler fan. I do not in my heart believe he is NHL calibre. His skating is NHL average but at his size it has to be elite. His shot is accurate but it is only NHL average. He does not have the size to play the boards as a third or fourth line player. He has to be a first or second line winger. While I will cheer for him to succeed there is in my mind a lot of hill for him to climb.

  86. YKOil says:

    leadfarmer: Absolutely.Happens every year.Someone is going to look at this crop of USNDP players and go I don’t know what the heck to do with all these undersized guys and who is zooming who so I’ll just take this 6’3 smooth skating Swede.
    Which will shock people but the boom bust potential of this years crop after top 3 is quite high.And he is still 17.

    Heh, a month ago Caulfield was a ‘wildcard’ to go top-8, now a there are some seeing him land in Buffalo.

    Podkolzin and Broberg. Either one of those two could jump up and surprise imo.

  87. ArmchairGM says:

    RonnieB: This is why i like Jamieson Rees with the 2nd round pick. He has that Brendan Gallagher type motor.

    Coincidentally, the latest mock draft I did had us taking Rees in the 3rd round. I’d be very happy with him on the depth chart!

  88. ArmchairGM says:

    RedArmy: -Puljujarvi, Lucic, 2019 EDM 1st to PIT for Hornqvist, Jarry, 2109 PIT 1st

    Now THAT’s long term planning!

  89. YKOil says:

    It would be incredibly sad if LA let TO off the Cap hook they are struggling on right now.

    LA has to know that if they take Marleau off the Leafs roster they SHOULD get a hefty return for their troubles, right? RIGHT???

  90. OriginalPouzar says:

    YKOil:
    It would be incredibly sad if LA let TO off the Cap hook they are struggling on right now.

    LA has to know that if they take Marleau off the Leafs roster they SHOULD get a hefty return for their troubles, right?RIGHT???

    Although I don’t have the hate on for the Leafs like many Western Canadian fans, I also don’t want to the Leafs to be able to get out of the contract easily.

    On the other hand, I don’t want LA, as a Western conference team, to accumulate a solid asset or asset to provide the pain. How about they just don’t do the deal. Toronto stays effed and LA doesn’t get some nice futures.

  91. Professor Q says:

    And then people wonder why other teams’ fans think that very same thing about Lucic and Edmonton etc.

    With regards to signing Nurse and others. Even if they on one hand mock and devalue Oilers, they also mock and want them to go to “better places that can afford and nurture them”.

  92. Yegfoundation says:

    I’m unclear on why some posters have an issue with GODOT stating his opinions?

    GODOT is one of the posters I most enjoy for a few reasons:

    1) He has strong opinions and he isn’t afraid to share opinions that may differ from that of others.

    2) He doesn’t appear to care if you like his opinions or not, you’re going to get them anyway.

    3) His opinions often make me consider alternate viewpoints.

    4) My recollection tells me he has a pretty good track record with his opinions.

    If you’d like to ask GODOT his justification for his opinions, do it respectfully.

  93. Rondo says:

    1. JH
    2. KK
    3. BB
    4.AT
    5.KD
    6.TZ
    7.DC
    8. MB,PK, VP or PB

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