Stand Back

On the day he was hired (before the media avail), I pegged Ken Holland’s ‘needs list’ at two wingers, a RH center, a backup goalie, a RH defenseman who could move the puck, and cap room. I think that list is still relevant one month later, but the order may have shuffled. We’re about to see the great architect get to work. Stand back.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group. INSANE OFFER IS HERE!

  • New Lowetide: Is Zack Kassian the answer for the McDavid-Draisaitl line?
  • Lowetide: NHL Combine brings Oilers dual problems into focus for Ken Holland
  • Lowetide: Analyzing the Oilers roster to see which players fit Dave Tippett’s ‘aggressive, fast team’ approach
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Dave Tippett’s coaching philosophy, how he relays information to his players and why information is king
  • Lowetide: What will Ken Holland see in Evan Bouchard?
  • Lowetide: Does Oilers’ signing of Joakim Nygard signal a measured approach to summer 2019?
  • Lowetide: Dave Tippett’s roster deployment in Arizona and what it might mean for the Oilers
  • Jonathan Willis: Why Ken Holland’s worst years in Detroit tell us the most about how he’ll fare in Edmonton
  • Jonathan Willis: Three offseason scenarios and how each one would affect the Oilers salary cap
  • Lowetide: Examining the Oilers’ goaltending options in free agency.
  • Jonathan Willis: Every Oilers AHL prospect, rated by how close they are to the NHL
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Protector, supporter, confidant: Connor McDavid’s mom, Kelly, is his off-ice rock through good times and bad
  • Lowetide: An offseason plan for Ken Holland to remodel the Oilers roster.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland steadfast that buck stops with him as new Oilers GM.
  • Lowetide: How will Ken Holland proceed in Year 1 as Oilers general manager?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Prioritizing the roster issues that await Ken Holland in Edmonton.
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s procurement list for his rumored move to Edmonton will include front-office personnel
  • Jonathan Willis: A Milan Lucic trade is at the top of the to-do list for the Oilers’ next GM.

MILAN LUCIC

You may recall we’re going over last year’s bottom-six forwards and giving thumb’s up or down. I’ve voted to keep Jujhar Khaira and Sam Gagner so far, Milan Lucic is our third man theme.

We are looking for players who can: PK, score at 5-on-5, play more than one position, forecheck, win battles and play with an edge.

Milan Lucic can win battles, play with an edge, and his 5-on-5 possession number is strong, even without Connor McDavid (and that’s rare). In ’17-18, he posted a 5-on-5 per 60 number that put him as a third-line performer. Everything else is strictly fourth line.

He does not PK, he no longer scores at 5-on-5, and he’s late to the forecheck. ML has been one of my favourites for more than a decade, but it’s time for him to sail on. I would not give up a monster asset (No. 8 overall) to dump his contract. There are trade winds surrounding him, perhaps the deal goes down after July 1 and the bonus payment.

HOLLAND’S TO-DO LIST

When Ken Holland first arrived, I suggested his to-do summer list looked like this:

*Two scoring wingers
*Cap room
*No. 3 RH center
*Top 4 RHD who can move the puck
*Backup goalie

After hearing him talk, and reviewing his plan of action (he wants to both make the playoffs and build the system), I believe the priority list is the same but the order has to be shuffled.

1 Goalie. If the Oilers are going to make the 2020 playoffs, and that’s a distant bell, a goalie is going to steal some games. I’ve suggested Brian Elliott, perhaps there’s another option. Either way, goalie is the priority.

2 Two scoring wingers. I do believe Holland will spend (money and assets to bring in some quality scorers. It might be a one and one, as in Brett Connolly via free agency and Connor Brown via trade, but there will be changes.

3 RH center. I think we’ll see a PK option who can skate and win faceoffs acquired over the summer. Maybe it’s someone Holland knows, like Luke Glendening.

4 Cap room. Most of the heavy work may have to wait a year.

5 Top 4 RHD who can move the puck. I can see a scenario where Holland and Tippett look at the internal options and decide a solution is on the roster, but 12 months away. Evan Bouchard might own that job by December 2020.

NHL.COM MOCKS

NHL.com always does an excellent job with their mocks, three individual mocks in this case. The Oilers options are fascinating, especially Philip Broberg. Why is it interesting? No one mentioned him as an Oilers option until after Ken Holland arrived. Maybe we get a surprise.

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

175 Responses to "Stand Back"

  1. dustrock says:

    I know we talk about BPA but man grabbing Broberg at 8 would be insane. I’m also not convinced he’s even the 2nd best D prospect.

    There’s always strange hype for certain players but who started the Broberg talk? I saw Stauffer’s tweet.

  2. dustrock says:

    I’d say we should be looking more closely at the US players now that Holland is here.

  3. dustrock says:

    Might as well get the OP trifecta in here.

    I am beginning to wonder if I don’t like all of the main USNDTP guys over Dach, Krebs and Cozens.

    Are they zooming each other? How garbage is the competition?

  4. Brantford Boy says:

    Broberg? Interesting… Although I’m not certain Holland likes defencemen from Sweden… oh right, that Lidstrom guy…

  5. Darth Tu says:

    dustrock:
    I know we talk about BPA but man grabbing Broberg at 8 would be insane. I’m also not convinced he’s even the 2nd best D prospect.

    There’s always strange hype for certain players but who started the Broberg talk? I saw Stauffer’s tweet.

    Maybe rather than taking Broberg at 8, we’re trading down a few slots.

  6. Todd Macallan says:

    If we are trading down for more picks my target would be Lavoie in the early to mid teens, he appears to be getting slept on in most published lists.

  7. texmex says:

    Let the rumors begin!!

    David Pagnotta
    @TheFourthPeriod
    ·
    34m
    Told that, as of now, Taylor Hall is not interested in signing an extension with the NJ Devils. He has 1-year left on his contract.

    Edit: This is most likely click bait from the “Fourth Period”, but Stauffer is always dropping hints about Hall not resigning in NJ.

  8. vinotintazo says:

    texmex:
    Let the rumors begin!!

    David Pagnotta
    @TheFourthPeriod
    ·
    34m
    Told that, as of now, Taylor Hall is not interested in signing an extension with the NJ Devils. He has 1-year left on his contract.

    we won a trade…

  9. Rondo says:

    Oilers #8

    Krebs, Boldy, Zegras or Podkolzin.

    The outliers are Broberg and Newhook in my opinion.

  10. Nit64 says:

    dustrock:
    I’d say we should be looking more closely at the US players now that Holland is here.

    Plymouth is 30 mins down the road. You’d think from repeated viewings and conversations Holland would have a very good take on who is zooming whom. That cuts both ways. It could result in them grabbing one of those guys or avoiding one that falls to them and looking elsewhere.

  11. Concur says:

    Reimer for goaltending option?
    Someone before mentioned Russel as a trade option there. Maybe they could work out a swap.

  12. Pescador says:

    dustrock:
    Might as well get the OP trifecta in here.

    I am beginning to wonder if I don’t like all of the main USNDTP guys over Dach, Krebs and Cozens.

    Are they zooming each other? How garbage is the competition?

    Excellent question,
    I’ll take a stab; it’s all of the good players who made the team vs. all of the players that didn’t
    I think I found the problem

  13. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    texmex,

    – Taylor Hall would be 29 when he is a free-agent: he’s likely in the $7MM + range for an injury prone player whose main attribute speed as he approaches 30: he’s a hard pass

    – He’s like Milan: it’s easy to say get rid of Milan, but don’t give up too much to do so. Hall would be great, but don’t give him too much

    – Neither of these two “aspirations” though are grounded in reality. You are going to have to retain big $ to get rid of Milan or assets, and unless Taylor Hall is the first player in hockey history to sign for 25%+ below market, for not many years, it’s not going to work.

  14. OriginalPouzar says:

    ” pegged Ken Holland’s ‘needs list’ at two wingers, a RH center, a backup goalie, a RH defenseman who could move the puck, and cap room. I think that list is still relevant one month later, but the order may have shuffled.”

    ———————————

    We know the GM is focused on a substantial 1B goalie becasue, well, he’s said so a number of times – he’s also intimated that free agency is the likely route – Elliot, Curtis M., R. Miller, Mrazek, Miller.

    A real 2RD has been a position of need for years now (since Jeff Petry was moved) – well, actually, a 1RD has been the position of need as A. Larsson would be a perfect 2RD, however, we are where we are. I went in to the off-season with the mindset that the priority was a clean Russell disposition and a one to two year stop-gap at 2RD. While the Russell disposition remains the priority to open up some cap space, I no longer thing that a 2RD will be prioritized and they will look internally (i.e. Sekera, Nurse on his off side, Benning) – obviously a Stralman, Spurgeon, etc. would be “better” but I don’t see it happening and am willing to bit the bullet for another year or two as the reinforcements are coming on the right side.

  15. Pescador says:

    vinotintazo: we won a trade…

    speaking of unsubstantiated rumors…

  16. OriginalPouzar says:

    I do agree that the goalie is the priority and that a couple of forwards will be prioritized over the 2RD.

    I am fine with this as long as there isn’t major cap commitment with term for a free agent’s 30s.

    Cap space out needs to be factored in to any material move as, given the need to spend $2.5M (give or take) on a goalie, there isn’t really much room to make other improvements without cap space.

    Of course, Lucic would be the optimal cap space disposition but the questions are (a) can Holland get creative so there isn’t much “pain” to dispose (i.e. 3-way deal with double retainement) and/or (b) how much “pain” via sweetener is Holland willing to pay for the various levels of disposition (ranging from $6M of cap room to $3M of cap room).

  17. dustrock says:

    Pescador: Excellent question,
    I’ll take a stab; it’s all of the good players who made the team vs. all of the players that didn’t
    I think I found the problem

    Yeah, this is the worry, right? At least with the CHL teams you can watch these prospects go up against powerhouse teams in the regular season and playoffs to get a sense of how far along they are.

    Still, I look at the skill set of a guy like Boldy and think “do I want this guy over someone like Cozens?”

  18. texmex says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    To be clear, I’m not suggesting the Oilers and Hall and destined for a reunion.

  19. godot10 says:

    dustrock:
    I know we talk about BPA but man grabbing Broberg at 8 would be insane. I’m also not convinced he’s even the 2nd best D prospect.

    There’s always strange hype for certain players but who started the Broberg talk? I saw Stauffer’s tweet.

    Broberg is an all tool defensemen like Byram, but jumped around teams and levels in Sweden. He was dominant at the Hlinka and the Under-18s against his peers. He stands out against his peers. He showed impressive offense against his peers but not so much during this team and level hopping season in Sweden.

    His wonky season in the Swedish leagues creates a higher level of uncertainty. He could go very high if someone likes him. He has as much upside potential as anyone in the draft, but it comes with much more risk.

  20. godot10 says:

    dustrock:
    I’d say we should be looking more closely at the US players now that Holland is here.

    I’d say, I hope not.

  21. godot10 says:

    Brantford Boy:
    Broberg?Interesting… Although I’m not certain Holland likes defencemen from Sweden… oh right, that Lidstrom guy…

    Broberg isn’t a Lidstrom type. He is a Karlsson type.

  22. Coiler says:

    Re: Taylor Hall. A lot can change in a year. I think NJ is on the cusp on turning things around on a more permanent basis as they seemingly had 2 seasons ago. Their future seems quite bright given their draft additions. Taylor Hall and what he’s going to want contract wise is not something that Edmonton will be able to afford in my opinion.

    Lucic…the numbers may say one thing but the big guy has simply lost his step in today’s game. And aside from a few instances, he hasn’t protected McDavid as he was supposed to these last few seasons. I hope Holland can engineer something creative about his departure from the Oilers without it costing the club something too dear.

    In terms of a goalie backup, I think the situation will become much clearer once people like Brobrovsky sign and draft day trades take place. I’m thinking there will be a great number of goalies shuffling around this off season.

    Changes are a comin’ this year in a big way to each and every team in the league.

  23. godot10 says:

    texmex:
    Let the rumors begin!!

    David Pagnotta
    @TheFourthPeriod
    ·
    34m
    Told that, as of now, Taylor Hall is not interested in signing an extension with the NJ Devils. He has 1-year left on his contract.

    Edit: This is most likely click bait from the “Fourth Period”, but Stauffer is always dropping hints about Hall not resigning in NJ.

    More elite players are going to play out their contracts, like the NBA. It is their only chance at leverage.

    There is nothing wrong with letting a player play out their contract. They are liking to play great that year.

  24. leadfarmer says:

    Broberg carries some risk but so does taking some of those midgets available or a guy who was -50 on his team. If you want him I dont think you get to trade down. Hes probably going 8-12

  25. godot10 says:

    leadfarmer:
    Broberg carries some risk but so does taking some of those midgets available or a guy who was -50 on his team.If you want him I dont think you get to trade down.Hes probably going 8-12

    Krebs has played against his peers many times now on Canadian teams against his peers from all over the world.

    I would take Krebs over Zegras every day of the week.

  26. leadfarmer says:

    I guess I cant blame Hall for wanting to go the free agency route. Must be terrible to be stuck on bad teams for so long. Definitely a player worth acquiring. When a game changer like this becomes available you get him just like when Stone was available this year

  27. leadfarmer says:

    godot10: Krebs has played against his peers many times now on Canadian teams against his peers from all over the world.

    I would take Krebs over Zegras every day of the week.

    And i would not
    I would take Caufield and then Zegras and Broberg and then Krebs

  28. Dee Dee says:

    The trick with a Lucic buyout/dump is to not immediately spend the cash on the next Lucic putting yourself right back in the hole. Koskinen is the perfect example of that.

    Just say no to UFA’s (other than short term smaller contracts)

  29. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    texmex:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    To be clear, I’m not suggesting the Oilers and Hall and destined for a reunion.

    – I understand. Lots of people though believe/hope/think its a good idea, righting a wrong, etc

    – I guess I understand that, like when Sittler tore the C of his jersey for the Leafs, or when Roy demanded a trade from the Habs, it hurt: but these fan bases didn’t pine for a return of their star who was wronged. It was over.

    – We need to go out and find mini-Halls, capable of playing with skill, scoring 20, and costing less than $3MM (or rookies)

  30. Pescador says:

    godot10: More elite players are going to play out their contracts, like the NBA.It is their only chance at leverage.

    There is nothing wrong with letting a player play out their contract.They are liking to play great that year.

    And if they don’t the price goes down,
    That being said, I am faxing the new contract offer over to 93’s agent minute 1 on the day the Oilers are allowed to resign him.
    I forget what is for UFA’s, is that the Jan 1 or the July 1?
    Do people still fax?

  31. Coiler says:

    If the rumours of Phaneuf being bought out are true, would anyone take a flyer on him? he could probably be acquired on the cheap all things being equal.

  32. ArmchairGM says:

    Coiler:
    Re: Taylor Hall. A lot can change in a year. I think NJ is on the cusp on turning things around on a more permanent basis as they seemingly had 2 seasons ago. Their future seems quite bright given their draft additions. Taylor Hall and what he’s going to want contract wise is not something that Edmonton will be able to afford in my opinion.

    Lucic…the numbers may say one thing but the big guy has simply lost his step in today’s game. And aside from a few instances, he hasn’t protected McDavid as he was supposed to these last few seasons.I hope Holland can engineer something creative about his departure from the Oilers without it costing the club something too dear.

    In terms of a goalie backup, I think the situation will become much clearer once people like Brobrovsky sign and draft day trades take place. I’m thinking there will be a great number of goalies shuffling around this off season.

    Changes are a comin’ this year in a big way to each and every team in the league.

    Hall and Lucic on the same roster:

    https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/230154

    Note the $6.7M in cap space, meaning not all those trades need to happen, i.e. Sekera and Brown could stay if Yamamoto and Lagesson aren’t NHL players.

  33. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Re Hall. He had this to say: “”Following the NBA more closely with this Raptors run has really opened my eyes to how great a league it is. There is a real sense of bravado and showmanship that you don’t see in other sports. The stars are on display every night and it’s impressive,”

    – The NBA has very colourful caracters. It’s the Hockey culture though: a guy like PK: the players don’t like him. Showboating: players need to teach that guy a lesson. Yak’s hockey goal celebrations were awesome (and hated by virtually the whole league) And if I hear another player saying they “give 110%”. these NBA Finals are great in terms of some the beaking off and chriping: it’s all done with the appropriate amount of jest

    – McD and Crosby: they are about as boring bland personas for a sport that you could come up with. they are just awful in interviews: never say anything. But this is the Hockey “way” Dumb stuff like not touching the Conference Cups, even though you’ve gone through war to get to the finals…

  34. Jaxon says:

    If any of these guys are available, this is the order I’d take them in:

    Cozens
    Byram
    Caufield
    Turcotte
    Kaliyev

    Newhook and Podkolzin are the mysteries for me. Not enough data on those leagues and they have the opposite problems (competition too hard vs competition too easy). Outside of Hughes, Caufield, and Turcotte, I don’t think I’d take a USNTDP player. I even have my doubts that those three are as good as their numbers suggest and Hughes’ Adjusted 5v5 P1/60 numbers don’t suggest all that great a player. Turcotte’s TOI worries me, but his production is 3rd best in the past 15 years going back to Crosby. Caufield’s production and TOI numbers have him as the only one on the team who meets both thresholds of a fairly certain top 6 player in my opinion, but his size may be an issue. I like how Turcotte plays, though, I think Chicago will have a hard time passing him up. I’m even tempted to puch Kaliyev up ahead of Turcotte and Caufield.

    USNTDP would be akin to Cozens, Dach, Krebs, Byram, Tomasino, Lavoie, Pelletier, Newhook, Harley, Suzuki, Thomson, Legare, Beaucage, Poulin, Foote, McMichael, Jamieson, M Robertson, etc all playing on the same team against WHL OHL and QMJHL teams all year without those players and without their 19 and 20 year olds. You’d think they’d be scoring even more than that. “But what about the National tournaments?” you say? Well, they have a very big advantage there as well. They play together all year long bonding, getting to know their coaches systems, creating on-ice chemistry, while all the other teams are thrown together in a week or two prior to the tournament. Of course they’re going to look good. So I’d be wary of drafting them. Good players? Sure. Of course, but I think they might be zoomed enough by their situation and teammates that some of them shouldn’t be considered in the top 15 or 20.

  35. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    ArmchairGM,

    – 6 wingers who aren’t established NHL’ers, most of them rookies, 3 rookie D, rookie back-up?

  36. Jaxon says:

    Re: Krebs. His 5v5 Primary Points / 60 was not good. Comparables with similar TOI:

    YEAR – Name – ADJ 5v5 P1 – eTOI/GP
    2018 – Nathan Dunkley – 18.441 – 15.19
    2010 – Max Reinhart – 18.380 – 14.57
    2010 – Joey Hishon – 18.379 – 14.27
    2016 – Matthew Phillips – 18.308 – 14.73
    2015 – Kay Schweri – 18.186 – 15.26
    2016 – Dmitry Sokolov – 17.983 – 14.63
    2019 – Peyton Krebs – 17.955 – 14.79
    2008 – Mitch Wahl – 17.914 – 14.83
    2019 – Nikita Alexandrov – 17.799 – 14.48
    2014 – Alexandre Goulet – 17.754 – 14.78
    2014 – Tyson Baillie – 17.722 – 14.57
    2013 – Adam Erne – 17.688 – 15.05
    2005 – Marek Zagrapan – 17.684 – 14.86
    2009 – Zack Kassian – 17.640 – 15.27
    2018 – Akil Thomas – 17.533 – 14.65
    2016 – Hugh McGing – 17.521 – 14.6
    2017 – Brady Gilmour – 17.480 – 14.91
    2016 – Tim Gettinger – 17.470 – 14.13

    Compared to near sure things in the past 15 years:
    YEAR – Name – ADJ 5v5 P1 – eTOI/GP
    2005 – Sidney Crosby – 48.18 – 15.28
    2015 – Connor McDavid – 44.02 – 16.89
    2018 – Andrei Svechnikov – 38.80 – 15.07
    2015 – Mitchell Marner – 37.49 – 13.79
    2015 – Dylan Strome – 36.80 – 15.49
    2014 – Robby Fabbri – 33.93 – 14.99
    2007 – Patrick Kane – 32.41 – 14.22
    2013 – Nathan MacKinnon – 30.49 – 15.9
    2014 – Sam Bennett – 30.15 – 15.87
    2014 – Spencer Watson – 30.10 – 14.21
    2010 – Taylor Hall – 29.83 – 13.88
    2013 – Nicolas Petan – 29.48 – 17.21
    2016 – Pierre-Luc Dubois – 29.43 – 15.4
    2016 – Alex DeBrincat – 29.20 – 17.03
    2016 – Cameron Morrison – 29.13 – 15.25
    2016 – Adam Mascherin – 29.04 – 16.06
    2008 – Steven Stamkos – 28.87 – 13.74

  37. dustrock says:

    Jaxon,

    I don’t think I take Caufield over Turcotte.

    Turcotte looks like he could be Toews or Marchand. He has the full toolbox and is insanely competitive. Came back twice from injury/illness and didn’t miss a beat.

    I think he’s got the complete toolbox.

    I do agree with your points though, and the other recent US cases do warrant some skepticism (e.g. Wahlstrom from last year I was quite high on).

    I agree Hughes, Turcotte and Caufield are the only sure things.

    I think Zegras has real skill and Boldy has an interesting toolbox as well, just hard to tell if they’ll be as effective in the NHL.

  38. dustrock says:

    Jaxon,

    I am slightly torn on Cozens because I don’t think he has the same high-end skill package or hands that some of these guys have.

    But if he turns into Bill Guerin, it makes total sense for the Oilers. There is no question his skating and frame are very projectable and I suspect he’d likely PK and PP2 as well.

    I’d ideally like his scoring to be at Drai or Sam Reinhart’s levels, but then he’d definitely go #3 if that were the case.

  39. ArmchairGM says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    ArmchairGM,

    – 6 wingers who aren’t established NHL’ers,most of them rookies, 3 rookie D, rookie back-up?

    That’s a 2020-21 roster, tons of young talent and not as many rookies and unestablished players as you think there are. And I have the cap space to keep Sekera + Brown if I wish to, but it doesn’t seem you read the whole post prior to hitting “quote”.

  40. ArmchairGM says:

    dustrock:
    Jaxon,

    I don’t think I take Caufield over Turcotte.

    Turcotte looks like he could be Toews or Marchand.He has the full toolbox and is insanely competitive.Came back twice from injury/illness and didn’t miss a beat.

    I think he’s got the complete toolbox.

    I do agree with your points though, and the other recent US cases do warrant some skepticism (e.g. Wahlstrom from last year I was quite high on).

    I agree Hughes, Turcotte and Caufield are the only sure things.

    I think Zegras has real skill and Boldy has an interesting toolbox as well, just hard to tell if they’ll be as effective in the NHL.

    Agree with all of this. And I think I’d take Turcotte above Cozens too, although it’s moot because there’s no way both will be available at #8.

  41. Woogie63 says:

    leadfarmer:
    I guess I cant blame Hall for wanting to go the free agency route.Must be terrible to be stuck on bad teams for so long.Definitely a player worth acquiring.When a game changer like this becomes available you get him just like when Stone was available this year

    Doesn’t the 1st overall always start on a BAD, but he makes it better? Hall’s team just keep getting 1 OV picks, Hopkins, Yak, McDavid, Hischier and now Hughes.

    Maybe Hall is part of the problem?

  42. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    ArmchairGM,

    – Ah : a year out, so I get it…Not reasonable to project all of Pool/Kailer/Benson/Marody/Nygard/Joe work out in a straight line

    – Or that Bouchard/Jones/Bear/Laggeson are all top-6 D in 13 months. Russell and Benning in particular: they are who they are, and betting that many of these guys are going to be “better” in 12 months is a big ask IMO

    – I read your quote: “I put together what I feel is a credible plan for the Oilers to be a legitimate Cup contender just 13 months from now and nobody comments?”, and assumed that you meant this was the roster now and in 13 months they would be contender. My Bad, I did not read it precisely

  43. YKOil says:

    Most interesting thing about the NHL.com list to me – Podkolzin on two lists at #6.

    This will be an entertaining #5 through 12 (assuming the top-4 is Hughes, Kakko, Byram and Turcotte).

  44. Reja says:

    Dee Dee:
    The trick with a Lucic buyout/dump is to not immediately spend the cash on the next Lucic putting yourself right back in the hole. Koskinen is the perfect example of that.

    Just say no to UFA’s (other than short term smaller contracts)

    Holland will not panic with Lucic I’m sure most of these GMs have a pretty good idea if there will be 1 compliance buy-out per team next year.

  45. David says:

    Jaxon,

    Zooming is one of the hardest things to assess. Was Debrincat zoomed by McDavid and Strome? Was Tkachuk zoomed by Marner and Dvorak? Nigh impossible to figure out if one of them is being carried or if each of them is genuinely great.

  46. HT Joe says:

    Woogie63: Doesn’tthe 1st overall always start on a BAD, but he makes it better?Hall’s team just keep getting 1 OV picks, Hopkins, Yak, McDavid, Hischier and now Hughes.

    Maybe Hall is part of the problem?

    Hall’s injury last season is likely a major reason the team didn’t make the playoffs… the Devils aren’t good enough without him. As for the #1 overalls in Edmonton, I don’t think Hall is the reason the Oilers were terrible… that’s like saying Nugent Hopkins is part of the problem because he was there too. Or it’s like saying McDavid is part of the problem, since we’ve missed the playoffs for the last 2 seasons.

  47. OriginalPouzar says:

    Further to yesterday’s conversation on Yakimov, he’s resigned in Russia.

    I never believed there was anything to this.

  48. Reja says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – Re Hall.He had this to say: “”Following the NBA more closely with this Raptors run has really opened my eyes to how great a league it is. There is a real sense of bravado and showmanship that you don’t see in other sports. The stars are on display every night and it’s impressive,”

    – The NBA has very colourful caracters.It’s the Hockey culture though: a guy like PK: the players don’t like him.Showboating: players need to teach that guy a lesson. Yak’s hockey goal celebrations were awesome (and hated by virtually the whole league) And if I hear another player saying they “give 110%”. these NBA Finals are great in terms of some the beaking off and chriping: it’s all done with the appropriate amount of jest

    – McD and Crosby: they are about as boring bland personas for a sport that you could come up with.they are just awful in interviews: never say anything.But this is the Hockey “way”Dumb stuff like not touching the Conference Cups, even though you’ve gone through war to get to the finals…

    They can’t say anything no free range chickens allowed the PCers and snowflakes will pounce all over any joke or any individuality. I’m glad I grew up in the free world.

  49. David says:

    Count me in the scared of Krebs camp. I always prefer players who actually produced at elite levels and may have some explanation other than their own merit as opposed to those who didn’t produce at elite levels and may have some explanation other than their own lack of merit

    That’s why I would completely avoid Krebs and would have Turcotte, Kaliyev, and Caufield inside my top six.

  50. Material Elvis says:

    godot10: Broberg isn’t a Lidstrom type.He is a Karlsson type.

    Seems more like a Noah Hanifin type. Amazing wheels and average hockey sense. He’s no Erik Karlsson.

  51. Material Elvis says:

    David:
    Count me in the scared of Krebs camp. I always prefer players who actually produced at elite levels and may have some explanation other than their own merit as opposed to those who didn’t produce at elite levels and may have some explanation other than their own lack of merit

    That’s why I would completely avoid Krebs and would have Turcotte, Kaliyev, and Caufield inside my top six.

    The same was said about Sean Monahan in his draft year. He played on a real shit team and his numbers didn’t blow you away. I think Krebs would look way better on even an average team.

  52. Material Elvis says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Further to yesterday’s conversation on Yakimov, he’s resigned in Russia.

    I never believed there was anything to this.

    Bush League Hero strikes again. Can’t wait for him to show up here and yell at Woodguy for calling out his clickbait.

  53. Jaxon says:

    dustrock:
    Jaxon,

    I am slightly torn on Cozens because I don’t think he has the same high-end skill package or hands that some of these guys have.

    But if he turns into Bill Guerin, it makes total sense for the Oilers.There is no question his skating and frame are very projectable and I suspect he’d likely PK and PP2 as well.

    I’d ideally like his scoring to be at Drai or Sam Reinhart’s levels, but then he’d definitely go #3 if that were the case.

    I was unsure of Cozens for a while and had him high just based on numbers, skating, and physical tools. but after watching a highlight reel recently, I’m very sold on him. The power and speed he has is pretty incredible. He also did quite well in the combine (not that it is the be all, end all).

    I have Cozens numbers almost identical to Draisaitl’s so I’m not worried about that and Cozens is more of a goal scorer now than Draisaitl was in the WHL.

    Projected 5v5 Primary Points (Adjusted for Era & Age):
    2014 – Leon Draisaitl – 25.93
    2019 – Dylan Cozens – 25.395
    That’s about as close as it gets.

  54. David says:

    Material Elvis: The same was said about Sean Monahan in his draft year.He played on a real shit team and his numbers didn’t blow you away.I think Krebs would look way better on even an average team.

    Absolutely. Krebs could be a 80 point first liner while Kaliyev never makes it because of a lack of drive and Caufield fizzles against the larger stronger competition.

    But if I had to pick between them, I’d take the players who put up devastating numbers over the players who didn’t every time.

  55. oilersfan says:

    Being on a shit team Krebs would likely be taking the other teams best centres, best dmen, have nobody good to finish passes, and likely even be double teamed in some areas of the ice.

    When he plays in tournaments his stats are better than CoZens or Dach.

    I would take coZens or Dach first but would seriously consider Krebs at 8 if all else are gone.

    Caufield is interesting for sure as well

  56. Jaxon says:

    dustrock:
    Jaxon,

    I don’t think I take Caufield over Turcotte.

    Turcotte looks like he could be Toews or Marchand.He has the full toolbox and is insanely competitive.Came back twice from injury/illness and didn’t miss a beat.

    I think he’s got the complete toolbox.

    I do agree with your points though, and the other recent US cases do warrant some skepticism (e.g. Wahlstrom from last year I was quite high on).

    I agree Hughes, Turcotte and Caufield are the only sure things.

    I think Zegras has real skill and Boldy has an interesting toolbox as well, just hard to tell if they’ll be as effective in the NHL.

    Many were high on Joel Farabee last year as well and he hasn’t lit it on fire either. Time will tell. I was higher on Johnny Gruden but he didn’t have a great draft+1 either.

    You may be right. A little while ago I was posting about Turcotte, wondering why he wasn’t being considered for #1 or #2. His complete game, his speed, his tenacity, and his production are pretty special and he’s been overshadowed by Hughes who didn’t score anywhere close to his rate. His TOI was the only thing that concerned me.

    YEAR – Name – Proj 5v5 P1 – eTOI/GP
    2005 – Sidney Crosby – 48.18 – 15.28
    2015 – Connor McDavid – 44.02 – 16.89
    2019 – Alex Turcotte – 42.235 – 12.85
    2018 – Andrei Svechnikov – 38.80 – 15.07
    2015 – Mitchell Marner – 37.49 – 13.79
    …34 players between since 2005…
    2010 – Tyler Toffoli – 26.72 – 15.67
    2014 – Nick Ritchie – 26.42 – 16.5
    2019 – Jack Hughes – 26.409 – 13.42
    2014 – Nikolaj Ehlers – 26.06 – 14.99
    2008 – Tyler Ennis – 26.04 – 15.06
    2013 – Max Domi – 26.01 – 13.15
    2014 – Leon Draisaitl – 25.93 – 17.2

  57. Jaxon says:

    David:
    Jaxon,

    Zooming is one of the hardest things to assess. Was Debrincat zoomed by McDavid and Strome? Was Tkachuk zoomed by Marner and Dvorak? Nigh impossible to figure out if one of them is being carried or if each of them is genuinely great.

    Agreed, but it does place a seed of doubt where I’d want to be absolutely sure about a player and you can believe if it was my job I’d be watching a ton of tape on them to go with the stats. I’d be watching games where the other players were injured or away at tournaments. Or even shifts and stats (WOWYs) without the other players. If two players were neck and neck after all that I would lean toward the one I’m sure wasn’t being zoomed.

  58. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Material Elvis: Bush League Hero strikes again.Can’t wait for him to show up here and yell at Woodguy for calling out his clickbait.

    – I think BLH is awesome: he’s a funny guy, knows a few people, does enough to keep entertained. He’s a breath of fresh air in an otherwise plan-vanilla “reporting” from other sources

    – So he gets it wrong: he has insights: if you don’t like him, don’t read him, or post about it, not sure why he has to be mocked or bashed because you or others disagree with what he writes

  59. Nit64 says:

    Jaxon: Agreed, but it does place a seed of doubt where I’d want to be absolutely sure about a player and you can believe if it was my job I’d be watching a ton of tape on them to go with the stats. I’d be watching games where the other players were injured or away at tournaments. Or even shifts and stats (WOWYs) without the other players. If two players were neck and neck after all that I would lean toward the one I’m sure wasn’t being zoomed.

    I suggested a while back that if you dedicate scouts to a whole league like the WHL you probably could dedicate a scout to that single team to zoom in on who’s zooming and who’s getting zoomed.

    Based on background and proximity to Plymouth Holland is well positioned to steer us to or away from whichever of them are there at 8.

  60. silasbengtsson says:

    Try and trade down with Minnesota and make the sweetener a swap of Russell for Pateryn. We save 1.75mil, get a solid RD that might help settle down the 2nd pair and we’re in the territory to grab a late-birthday riser in Tomasino. Guy reminds me a lot of Vinny Trocheck!

  61. Alpine says:

    I think we got a shot at Cozens or Dach. Turcotte and Byram will be gone for sure but I think Detroit might reach for Broberg or Podkolzin.

    Friedman had a bit in 31 thoughts recently about Podkolzin being a pretty likely pick for Detroit and it fits because Yz isn’t afraid to pick Russians high. Vasilevsky was a mid 1st and Namestnikov was a late first, plus there’s Kucherov who was in a similar boat in his draft year as Podkolzin is now.

    Zegras and Caufield are candidates to go higher up as well. We’ll see how MacKenzie’s list works out but both guys are getting top 5-6 buzz from Cosentino, Cam Robinson (Dobber), Pronman, Chris Peters (ESPN) among others. I think LA might take one if Byram is gone and who knows with Buffalo.

    We didn’t think we’d be choosing between all three of Bouchard, Wahlstrom, or Dobson last year, or that we would get Jesse in 2016. Someone always reaches.

  62. ashley says:

    godot10: More elite players are going to play out their contracts, like the NBA.It is their only chance at leverage.

    There is nothing wrong with letting a player play out their contract.They are liking to play great that year.

    I wonder why this doesn’t happen more often in the NHL. It’s the best way for the player to get their maximum value unless they start playing substantially worse than baseline (unlikely) or get hurt (uncommon). Even if an injury derails the plan, a one year contract could be signed at UFA to make another run at the big contract for the next free agency period. And haven’t we seen players with injury seasons go into free agency and do quite well with their contracts?

    For a group of workers who have a very short career and only one or maybe two chances at a big contract, it would seem important to maximize the value.

    Maybe they are getting bad advice?

  63. Munny says:

    silasbengtsson,

    I like Tomasino a lot too. Not a bad idea on the trade, but of course it requires an interested dance partner.

    Always dangerous to trade down in the first half of the first round though, as you might drop below where your target gets taken. Need the good intel.

  64. Ryan says:

    godot10,

    Does anyone have the Swedish Oil link to his description?

  65. silasbengtsson says:

    Munny,

    Yeah, it’s hard to tell if they’d be open to it. Given who might be available, I figured they might be interested enough to jump into that 2nd tier of prospects after Hughes, Kakko and Byram. I strongly believe that Tomasino is a guy that wouldn’t disappoint, but your point regarding the risk of trading down is fair. Hence why I would only trade down once despite his being ranked ~20; I’d rather reach for “my guy” than risk not getting him.

  66. John Chambers says:

    Re: Taylor Hall

    If the Oilers can have a big season – like win a playoff series or better, it’s possible the Oilers and Taylor Hall could be a thing again.

    There are a lot of if’s. Lucic, Sekera, and Russell’s contracts would have to all be off the books. But Chiarelli who traded him will be long gone, and his buddies will still be there.

    I can also see him signing in Calgary, which is just as good a reason to roll out the welcome mat for Hallsy.

  67. GMB3 says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    What about a Nurse++ for Spurgeon and Zucker. As most of the posters here seem to think Darnell Nurse is the next coming of Larry Robinson, he must be. Better dman than spurgeon so maybe it decreases the value of the second or third asset needed to get both guys out of Minnesota.

  68. John Chambers says:

    ashley,

    Don’t underestimate peer pressure. A case like Tavares’ is rare because he’s known Josh Bailey for almost a decade, and many of the other core players for 3-5 years.

    It’s fair to say that a star player has an emotional connection to his teammates. They’ve gone Maserati shopping and model hunting together.

  69. Reja says:

    ashley: I wonder why this doesn’t happen more often in the NHL.It’s the best way for the player to get their maximum value unless they start playing substantially worse than baseline (unlikely) or get hurt (uncommon).Even if an injury derails the plan, a one year contract could be signed at UFA to make another run at the big contract for the next free agency period.And haven’t we seen players with injury seasons go into free agency and do quite well with their contracts?

    For a group of workers who have a very short career and only one or maybe two chances at a big contract, it would seem important to maximize the value.

    Maybe they are getting bad advice?

    A bird in hand is Worth two in the bush..Every player is 1 or 2 concussions away from retirement

  70. Yeti says:

    Ryan,

    Let’s see if this link works: https://lowetide.ca/2019/05/24/the-ushl-sweden-and-the-2019-draft/#comment-839708

    But here’s an edited version verbal, drawn direct from Swedishposter’s account, yet cut down for length (see original post by clicking the link):

    “The biggest ticket this year is ofc Philip Broberg, 6’3 LHD who can absolutely fly. Skating is the first thing that pops out when you see him, not just amazing top speed but his acceleration is great both from standstill but also how he goes from 4th to 5th gear, he walks the line well and has great mobility in all directions… He actually has a pretty good grasp where he should be defensively, breaks up plays, good gaps and moves the puck north not only by skating it up but he actually has a good first pass. As with most swedish D … he’s not very physical but he’s pretty good at getting the puck from players either by shielding them off the puck or pokechecks. His shot is ok but not great, wellplaced wrister but needs more oomph … He’s got good puckhandling, not a dangler but controls the puck well at top speed, can make moves around players at high speed with the puck … His passing is fine, he moves the puck well technichally both forehand and backhand, as I mentioned he’s got a solid first pass.

    Now the big talking point on Broberg and the thing that has people questioning him as an NHLer and thinking he’s one of the most likely players to bust amongst the top picks is his hockey IQ. I personally don’t think it’s a big issue, not elite in any way but not bad either, he knows his way around the ice, reads and reacts well. Where I do think it stems from is that he doesn’t see the ice all that well offensively … I’d argue the risk he’s a bust is actually miniscule and instead he’s one of the safest picks in the draft. With his insane skating and ability to play defense I just don’t see how he won’t make it as a solid NHL D and even without an offensive uptick I think his upside is a #2 D.”

  71. GMB3 says:

    It seems to me that Kaliyev is this years Debrincat. Phenomenal counting stats, yet a bunch of arbitrary negatives to his play that are difficult to quantify. I think LT might be right on this one.

  72. Munny says:

    Yeti,

    Ryan,

    The original post is much longer than this… click through the link to read the comment in its entirety.

  73. godot10 says:

    David: Absolutely. Krebs could be a 80 point first liner while Kaliyev never makes it because of a lack of drive and Caufield fizzles against the larger stronger competition.

    But if I had to pick between them, I’d take the players who put up devastating numbers over the players who didn’t every time.

    When Krebs has played on teams that were not outmatched, like at the Hlinka and the Under-18’s he did more than fine comparatively.

  74. godot10 says:

    Jaxon: Many were high on Joel Farabee last year as well and he hasn’t lit it on fire either. Time will tell. I was higher on Johnny Gruden but he didn’t have a great draft+1 either.

    You may be right. A little while ago I was posting about Turcotte, wondering why he wasn’t being considered for #1 or #2. His complete game, his speed, his tenacity, and his production are pretty special and he’s been overshadowed by Hughes who didn’t score anywhere close to his rate. His TOI was the only thing that concerned me.

    YEAR–Name–Proj 5v5 P1–eTOI/GP
    2005–Sidney Crosby–48.18–15.28
    2015–Connor McDavid–44.02–16.89
    2019–Alex Turcotte–42.235–12.85
    2018–Andrei Svechnikov–38.80–15.07
    2015–Mitchell Marner–37.49–13.79
    …34 players between since 2005…
    2010–TylerToffoli–26.72–15.67
    2014–NickRitchie–26.42–16.5
    2019–Jack Hughes–26.409–13.42
    2014–Nikolaj Ehlers–26.06–14.99
    2008–Tyler Ennis–26.04–15.06
    2013–Max Domi–26.01–13.15
    2014–LeonDraisaitl–25.93–17.2

    Turcotte was hurt a lot last year, which impacts his TOI. A coach is not going to overplay him coming back from an injury.

  75. Ryan says:

    Yeti,

    Thanks! 🙂

  76. ArmchairGM says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    ArmchairGM,

    – Ah : a year out, so I get it…Not reasonable to project all of Pool/Kailer/Benson/Marody/Nygard/Joe work out in a straight line

    Yeah, but I’m not.

    – We already know what Puljujarvi brings when he plays with McDavid.
    – Yamamoto is to spend another full year in Bakersfield then contribute on an energy line. I already told you that Connor Brown can play this position if Kailer is unable to, so this is moot.
    – I think Benson will make the big team this fall so I can comfortably pencil him onto the 2020 roster; rarely does a p/gp 20-year-old AHL rookie spend 3 seasons in that league.
    – Marody isn’t on my 2020 roster at all, not sure where you’re coming from on that one.
    – Nygard spends a year in the minors and then comes up to be the 14th forward in 20-21, I don’t think that’s projecting someone to work out in a straight line. If not Nygard, there are lots of UFA forwards available each fall who would be glad to earn $1M USD to sit in the press box.
    – Gambardella had a splendid year, was the highest scorer on the team with 29 goals in 50 games (NHLe: 21 goals in 82) and plays a style that lends itself quite well to a bottom-6 NHL role. I’m 100% certain that asking him to play on the 4th line after 2-3 years in the minors isn’t projecting him at all: this is where he is today.

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    ArmchairGM,

    – Or that Bouchard/Jones/Bear/Laggeson are all top-6 D in 13 months.Russell and Benning in particular: they are who they are, and betting that many of these guys are going to be “better” in 12 months is a big ask IMO

    – The general feeling around here (including our host) is that Bouchard will be playing regular minutes by Christmas 2019 or thereabouts, maybe projecting him to pair with Nurse in October 2020 is a stretch, but I don’t think so. We already know he’s got more offensive ability than ANY other Oilers defender, he just needs some seasoning and he’ll be there.
    – Jones has already proved that he’s NHL ready IMO, so to pencil him in as a 3rd pairing guy 15 months from now isn’t a stretch at all. Cast in the 3rd pairing role without a steady partner he was able to break even in goal share, pretty impressive when you consider his partners: Petrovic (22:09), Manning (2:16), Wideman (2:10), Garrison (1:58), Gravel (65:50) and Benning (39:19) – most of whom aren’t even NHL-caliber talent. That was last year. You don’t think he’ll be able to handle the job 2 seasons forward??
    – Bear is on the roster as the 7D simply because he isn’t waiver eliglible anymore. If the coaching staff doesn’t have any confidence in him Holland can trade him and bring in another $1M player. It’s pretty inconsequential.
    – Lagesson plays very well with Jones and Sekera thinks he’s NHL ready so I don’t think he’ll have any difficulty holding down the 3LD job in 2020. He probably could have done it last year but he wasn’t given the opportunity so we just don’t know yet. Three things though: (1) I already told you that Sekera doesn’t have to be traded because I have $6.7M in cap space, so Lagesson’s name here is a placeholder to show what can easily be done, and (2) the cap space could be used to sign a UFA next summer if it looks like the prospects are going backwards – there’s quite a long list of top-4 d-men potentially available – and (3) it’s quite possible that Samorukov will be pushing for a 3rd pairing spot by that time.

    In short, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to think Bouchard will be better than Russell in 16 months and that a Lagesson-Jones or a Sekera-Jones pairing couldn’t cover 3rd pairing as well as Gravel-Benning did this past season.

  77. ArmchairGM says:

    Alpine:
    I think we got a shot at Cozens or Dach. Turcotte and Byram will be gone for sure but I think Detroit might reach for Broberg or Podkolzin.

    We didn’t think we’d be choosing between all three of Bouchard, Wahlstrom, or Dobson last year, or that we would get Jesse in 2016. Someone always reaches.

    This. There will be a quality prospect available at #8, I wouldn’t trade down.

  78. ArmchairGM says:

    John Chambers: Re: Taylor Hall

    If the Oilers can have a big season – like win a playoff series or better, it’s possible the Oilers and Taylor Hall could be a thing again.

    There are a lot of if’s. Lucic, Sekera, and Russell’s contracts would have to all be off the books.

    No. Just Russell’s.

    https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/230154

  79. ArmchairGM says:

    GMB3:
    OriginalPouzar,

    What about a Nurse++ for Spurgeon and Zucker. As most of the posters here seem to think Darnell Nurse is the next coming of Larry Robinson, he must be. Better dman than spurgeon so maybe it decreases the value of the second or third asset needed to get both guys out of Minnesota.

    Because trading a 24-year-old who is just hitting his stride is always a good idea?

  80. Jaxon says:

    godot10: Turcotte was hurt a lot last year, which impacts his TOI.A coach is not going to overplay him coming back from an injury.

    Solid argument which somewhat alleviates my worries about his ice time. The other concern is being on an all star team against lesser opponents and then seeing second line competition. I’m sure most high school teams were trying to put their best it against Hughes and Caufield. The USNTDP is such a strange animal. I’ve got to follow.

  81. OriginalPouzar says:

    If the Devils are open to trading him this off-season, it may be a tough one to value.

    Taylor Hall at $6M for next season is immense value, however, in my opinion, his next contract is going to be very scary – assuming a healthy year, at normal levels (below Hart trophy but a solid PPG), he’s going to require at least $9M and probably the full 7 year term. I would have zero interest in paying Hall huge money for his 30s. I am against acquiring players and paying them for their 30s in general and Hall has alot of wear and tear on him.

    For me, an acquisition would have to be looked at as a one-year rental and I wouldn’t pay full price. Of course, the Devils would want full price – tough value trade.

  82. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    texmex,

    – Taylor Hall would be 29 when he is a free-agent: he’s likely in the $7MM + range for an injury prone player whose main attribute speed as he approaches 30: he’s a hard pass

    As per me previous post, I’d love him as a one-year rental but the Oilers shouldn’t be in that type of market this year and I wouldn’t pay nearly what the Devils would require.

    We agree in premise but I would suggest your $7M is WAY south of his next AAV – he’s one year removed from a Hart trophy.

  83. GMB3 says:

    ArmchairGM: Because trading a 24-year-old who is just hitting his stride is always a good idea?

    Are you asking me a question or just phrasing a statement as a question to be a dink?

    “Just hitting his stride”. Right, that second pairing was a major key to the Edmonton Oilers success this season.

    Elite D prove themselves to be one fairly early in their careers, according to prior work done by wokdguy. I’m relatively convinced a Sekera-Spurgeon pairing would be a better pairing. Nurse will need to be paid next season.

    Zucker has been rumoured to be available, his underlying metrics are fantastic and he would be the third or fourth best forward on the team.

    I think the trade would be a wash on the back end, but tackle the 2RHD problem and add balance. Long run, it would hurt to lose Nurse as he’s 5 years younger than Spurgeon, but this is theoretical trade scenario is based on Holland’s desire to commit to making the playoffs without mortgaging the future, he hasn’t been afraid to add older D in the past. We have some excellent D prospects, and less so on forward.

    Paul Fenton is the new Chiarelli, might as well be on the winning side of a trade for once.

    If I was the GM, I’d be okay with one more year of pain and just try and manage the cap situation for the future, probably wouldn’t make much of a splash this year.

  84. digger50 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – I think BLH is awesome: he’s a funny guy, knows a few people, does enough to keep entertained.He’s a breath of fresh air in an otherwise plan-vanilla “reporting” from other sources

    – So he gets it wrong: he has insights: if you don’t like him, don’t read him, or post about it, not sure why he has to be mocked or bashed because you or others disagree with what he writes

    Just want to add my support. At first I was not a fan of BLH blog as I found the writer(s) too opinionated and one dimensional.

    The past 6 months I have come to enjoy the blog. The “my sources” take is a bit amusing at times but fresh and different. Not sure I believe the credibility of the sources but it matters little, just interesting to get another perspective.

  85. Lowetide says:

    Edmonton Oilers
    @EdmontonOilers
    ·
    3m
    The #Oilers have signed forward Brad Malone & goaltender Shane Starrett to one-year contract extensions.

    Centers and goalies, centers and goalies.

  86. ArmchairGM says:

    GMB3: Are you asking me a question or just phrasing a statement as a question to be a dink?

    The second one.

  87. ArmchairGM says:

    Lowetide:
    Edmonton Oilers
    @EdmontonOilers
    ·
    3m
    The #Oilers have signed forward Brad Malone & goaltender Shane Starrett to one-year contract extensions.

    Centers and goalies, centers and goalies.

    Never a bad thing.

  88. Lowetide says:

    ArmchairGM: Never a bad thing.

    Yep. Every sport, build up the middle.

  89. Darth Tu says:

    ArmchairGM: Never a bad thing.

    Yup, hold onto the solid options at both positions. Build the rest from there.

  90. ArmchairGM says:

    Lowetide:
    Edmonton Oilers
    @EdmontonOilers
    ·
    3m
    The #Oilers have signed forward Brad Malone & goaltender Shane Starrett to one-year contract extensions.

    Centers and goalies, centers and goalies.

    OP will be pleased!

  91. npanciroli says:

    Taylor Hall will crack 10 mil per year.

  92. OriginalPouzar says:

    Coiler:
    Re: Taylor Hall. A lot can change in a year. I think NJ is on the cusp on turning things around on a more permanent basis as they seemingly had 2 seasons ago. Their future seems quite bright given their draft additions. Taylor Hall and what he’s going to want contract wise is not something that Edmonton will be able to afford in my opinion.

    After opening night in Gothenburg, I thought they were on the verge of becoming one of the league’s elite teams.

  93. digger50 says:

    Lowetide:

    Yep. Every sport, build up the middle.

    Including spectators.

    building up the middle

  94. leadfarmer says:

    Yeti,

    This is why I think he will go top 10. There’s a lot of boom bust types after the first 3 picks and Broberg I find to be a pretty safe pick.

  95. David says:

    godot10: When Krebs has played on teams that were not outmatched, like at the Hlinka and the Under-18’s he did more than fine comparatively.

    As I said, Krebs may turn out to be great.

    But I would always bet on people who dominated their regular league all season long (***and there might be an explanation other then their own merit) over those who failed to dominate their regular league all season long (***and there might be an explanation other then their own lack of merit)

    Tournaments are tricky business and are usually used to confirm whatever opinion a person has on a player. As a huge supporter of Curtis Lazar, I always used the fact that he broke Stamkos’ goal record and Crosby’s point record at the Canada winter games as “proof” that he was going to produce at the NHL level. Doesn’t look so good for me now (although I think his development was trash, should have had two years junior and two years AHL post draft)

    Puljujarvi had one of the most dominating World Juniors ever and has yet to do much at the NHL level (I still believe though)

    Bouchard destroyed the best junior league on the planet for two years but had a very meh World Juniors. I don’t think that should worry us one bit.

    To reiterate my point, tournament results are not as convincing as season long results, and actually posting huge numbers is more convincing than explanations for why a player would have put up huge numbers in a different situation.

    But just to say once again, Krebs could be amazing, I would just stay away.

  96. digger50 says:

    Any thoughts on this fellow?

    Vladislav Kolyachonok (LD) I’m reading he has top pairing potential and could be a steal in the second round.

    Lt has him back around 70 I believe.

  97. Munny says:

    npanciroli:
    Taylor Hall will crack 10 mil per year.

    Böök¡je it!

    (Fuck that guy)

  98. Munny says:

    Lowetide: The #Oilers have signed forward Brad Malone & goaltender Shane Starrett

    Starrett sucks up a lot of ice time on the Bako team… time I’d like to see go to the two younger guys.

    However, if either or both of 1A and 1B on the main squad get hurt, you’d want a guy like Starrett you can bring up. His regular season play has earned that chance.

    Can’t imagine Dutch Oven saw him good in his short Bako junket, so this would be an organizational or perhaps stats signing, I’m guessing

  99. Durag says:

    Jim Matheson

    @NHLbyMatty
    Following Following @NHLbyMatty
    More
    Shane Starrett rewarded with one-way $700,000 contract. Same dough if he plays in Edm or Bakersfield. His salary was $70,000 last year for Condors.
    _______________________________________________________________

    Maybe Ken already has his backup in mind!

  100. Pescador says:

    Material Elvis: Bush League Hero strikes again.Can’t wait for him to show up here and yell at Woodguy for calling out his clickbait.

    I remember that, he then preceded to challenge Darcy to a wood measuring contest,
    predictably he came up short

  101. pts2pndr says:

    dustrock:
    Might as well get the OP trifecta in here.

    I am beginning to wonder if I don’t like all of the main USNDTP guys over Dach, Krebs and Cozens.

    Are they zooming each other? How garbage is the competition?

    All star team playing together all year long. Each player playing with great line mates. One and sometimes two lines getting softer minutes. Do you think that just maybe the whole is better than the sum of its parts! I truly hope our GM sees this for what it is. Holland has seen this group many times so I believe he is the right man in the right place for the Oil. All that glitters is not gold!

  102. McSorley33 says:

    Jaxon,

    You may be right. A little while ago I was posting about Turcotte, wondering why he wasn’t being considered for #1 or #2. His complete game, his speed, his tenacity, and his production are pretty special and he’s been overshadowed by Hughes who didn’t score anywhere close to his rate. His TOI was the only thing that concerned me.
    *************************************************************************************************
    I will tell you what….Chicago took 2 D with their first 2 draft picks last year.
    ( Boqvist & Beaudin)

    They did the same in 2017. ( Jokiharju & Mitchell)

    Now, if they add Turcotte we could be looking at a fairly smooth ‘re-tooling’ in the
    windy city.

    Turcotte , Strome at C and RHD of Boqvist and Jokiharju…..

  103. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer:
    I guess I cant blame Hall for wanting to go the free agency route.Must be terrible to be stuck on bad teams for so long.Definitely a player worth acquiring.When a game changer like this becomes available you get him just like when Stone was available this year

    I’m wondering:

    1) Would you be OK paying the acquisition cost for Hall knowing that he was essentially a one-year rental (maybe a trade at the deadline if the team is out)? Presumably NJ wants full value notwithstanding the one-year.

    2) Would you be in favor of acquiring Hall for full value acquisition cost and re-signing him to his retirement contract – presumably something long the lines of $10M X 7 – for his 30s?

  104. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pescador: And if they don’t the price goes down,
    That being said, I am faxing the new contract offer over to 93’s agent minute 1 on the day the Oilers are allowed to resign him.
    I forget what is for UFA’s, is that the Jan 1 or the July 1?
    Do people still fax?

    July 1 in their contract year (i.e. a year before they become a UFA).

    One exception is if a player signed a one-year contract, they can’t be re-signed until January (i.e. 6 months prior to them becoming a UFA).

    Nuge: July 1, 2020.

  105. Jordan says:

    Gregor insinuating that Hall would be more willing / interested in coming back with the new management team in place.

    Also that there may interested in re-acquiring the player (may just be hearsay).

    You know who might be great wingers for RNH… Taylor and Jordan.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dzOHq5WbQ8k

  106. pts2pndr says:

    ArmchairGM: OP will be pleased!

    You know he secretly really likes Malone!😉

  107. Munny says:

    McSorley33,

    Well, unlike the Oilers, they were smart about it and drafted high end D before high end forwards…

  108. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’m wondering:

    1) Would you be OK paying the acquisition cost for Hall knowing that he was essentially a one-year rental (maybe a trade at the deadline if the team is out)?Presumably NJ wants full value notwithstanding the one-year.

    2) Would you be in favor of acquiring Hall for full value acquisition cost and re-signing him to his retirement contract– presumably something long the lines of $10M X 7 – for his 30s?

    Can’t think of anyone in his right mind that would be okay with that.

  109. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    I would definitely have to gauge the interest in re-signing with my team if I acquired him but if it seemed like he would be interested I would most definitely do it and pay the acquisition cost. These guys don’t grow on trees.
    These are the players you want to spend the cap on. Jeff Skinner will get 9 mil a year and while elite at putting pucks in net he’s isn’t in any other facet and would not spend money on him
    Spend your cap on elite players and surround them with guys on shortest contracts possible
    Hall can drive a line by himself. These are the only players worth acquiring for their late 20 early to mid 30 years because you are not able to get these players any other way

  110. Pescador says:

    OriginalPouzar: After opening night in Gothenburg, I thought they were on the verge of becoming one of the league’s elite teams.

    Oilers made more than one mediocre team look like world beaters last season

  111. Munny says:

    Pescador: Oilers made more than one mediocre team look like world beaters last season

    The punditry had it as a guaranteed loss night for the Oilers with their much more difficult sked/travel going into the game.

  112. Munny says:

    Pescador: I remember that, he then preceded to challenge Darcy to a wood measuring contest,
    predictably he came up short

    Did they use a left-handed ruler or a right-handed?

  113. Ryan says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’m wondering:

    1) Would you be OK paying the acquisition cost for Hall knowing that he was essentially a one-year rental (maybe a trade at the deadline if the team is out)?Presumably NJ wants full value notwithstanding the one-year.

    2) Would you be in favor of acquiring Hall for full value acquisition cost and re-signing him to his retirement contract– presumably something long the lines of $10M X 7 – for his 30s?

    I really like Hall and find that he’s a fairly cerebral player in terms of analytics and comparing the NHL / contract structures across different sporting leagues. I could see him having a role in hockey after he retires.

    I’d also really like to have Hall back.

    However, I can’t see how it would be feasible to pay the full acquisition cost with the inherent risk that he doesn’t extend the contract.

    Even if he does, pairing the extension price with the acquisition cost seems counterproductive towards our goals as improving as a franchise.

    Using the Karlsson trade as an outer marker of a template, they traded a 1st, 2nd rounder along with a few prospects [former 1st (Josh Norris) and 5th (Rudolf Balcers] along with Chris Tierney and Dillan Demello.

    Now the price for Hall would be less than Karlsson, but you would still be looking at what a 1st, probably second, and a few good prospects???

    We don’t have the cap space, prospect depth, or pipeline of players to pull off this trade. (nor the ability to sign cheap effect free agents)

  114. Bag of Pucks says:

    Taylor Hall has gone on record saying he’s already made his money and his next contract will be about which team gives him the best chance to win the Cup.

    Doubt that’s Edmonton over the next year.

  115. Pescador says:

    texmex:
    Let the rumors begin!!

    David Pagnotta
    @TheFourthPeriod
    ·
    34m
    Told that, as of now, Taylor Hall is not interested in signing an extension with the NJ Devils. He has 1-year left on his contract.

    Edit: This is most likely click bait from the “Fourth Period”, but Stauffer is always dropping hints about Hall not resigning in NJ.

    Not interested in re-signing until his agent discovers that NJ is the only team offering 8 years @ $10 M.
    Hall:
    “I always wanted to stay in NJ, it’s the best fit for me & my family”

  116. Pescador says:

    Munny: Did they use a left-handed ruler or a right-handed?

    They used Woodguy’s phone

  117. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    GMB3: Are you asking me a question or just phrasing a statement as a question to be a dink?

    “Just hitting his stride”. Right, that second pairing was a major key to the Edmonton Oilers success this season.

    Elite D prove themselves to be one fairly early in their careers, according to prior work done by wokdguy. I’m relatively convinced a Sekera-Spurgeon pairing would be a better pairing. Nurse will need to be paid next season.

    Zucker has been rumoured to be available, his underlying metrics are fantastic and he would be the third or fourth best forward on the team.

    I think the trade would be a wash on the back end, but tackle the 2RHD problem and add balance. Long run, it would hurt to lose Nurse as he’s 5 years younger than Spurgeon, but this is theoretical trade scenario is based on Holland’s desire to commit to making the playoffs without mortgaging the future, he hasn’t been afraid to add older D in the past. We have some excellent D prospects, and less so on forward.

    Paul Fenton is the new Chiarelli, might as well be on the winning side of a trade for once.

    If I was the GM, I’d be okay with one more year of pain and just try and manage the cap situation for the future, probably wouldn’t make much of a splash this year.

    I would agree that Nurse isn’t tracking to be elite.

    He does seem to be tracking to be “Actual NHL Top 4 Dman would could play on a top pair with a better player” and that has a lot of value.

    As far as last year, here are some interesting results:

    CF%
    77-6 – 50.5%
    25-4 – 45.2%
    83+ X – 48.3%

    GF%
    77-6 – 36.5%
    25-4 – 50.0%
    83-X – 55.8%

    Before anyone gets too excited:

    25-6
    CF%. 48.4
    GF% 34.5

    The problem with the D last year was 6 getting lit up goal-wise like a pinball machine.

    I think that’s what has spurred a lot of the “trade 6” talk.

    6 was a positive GF% influence the last 3 years vs similar comp with all his team mates so last year is a serious outlier.

    Injury? Grieving? No idea but he skated very upright like a guy with a back problem and his “average-ish” skating was way below average, especially first step.

    He wasn’t good, but I wouldn’t bet on it happening again.

    If it does happen again then it’s a massive issue.

    Also,

    I’ve like Surgeon forever (picked him here since 2014 or so) and would do that trade, and I think Nurse might be the best LHD on the roster.

    The thing is that the cluster of Klef, Nurse, Sekera is that if they’re all healthy they’re all pretty close in effectiveness so you live without one with Jones and Lagesson being NHL ready (and they are for 3rd pair duty)

  118. OriginalPouzar says:

    John Chambers:
    Re: Taylor Hall

    If the Oilers can have a big season – like win a playoff series or better, it’s possible the Oilers and Taylor Hall could be a thing again.

    There are a lot of if’s. Lucic, Sekera, and Russell’s contracts would have to all be off the books. But Chiarelli who traded him will be long gone, and his buddies will still be there.

    I can also see him signing in Calgary, which is just as good a reason to roll out the welcome mat for Hallsy.

    Do you really want to pay Taylor Hall apx $10M/year for his 29-36 years?

  119. OriginalPouzar says:

    GMB3:
    OriginalPouzar,

    What about a Nurse++ for Spurgeon and Zucker. As most of the posters here seem to think Darnell Nurse is the next coming of Larry Robinson, he must be. Better dman than spurgeon so maybe it decreases the value of the second or third asset needed to get both guys out of Minnesota.

    No thanks because I don’t want to pay Spurgeon for his 30s.

    I would LOVE Spurgeon for next year, however, he’d be a one-year rental in my mind and I’m not enamoured by Zucker like many are.

  120. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Pescador: Not interested in re-signing until his agent discovers that NJ is the only team offering 8 years @ $10 M.
    Hall:
    “I always wanted to stay in NJ, it’s the best fit for me & my family”

    He’s 27 and will have made ~$50MM by the end of this contract.

    He’s one of the only 2 time Memorial Cup MVPs in recent history and is dying to win the in NHL.

    Dying to win.

    He’ll take ~$9 to go to where he wants.

    Places he wants to go will (correctly) give him that too.

    Long term risk given the injury history but players with his pedigree produce at a high end rate until their mid-30’s if they stay healthy.

    The Lucic/Clarkson/etc aging curve doesn’t apply to him.

    He’s probably good for ~6 seasons on his next contract if his knees hold up.

    That’s a big if.

  121. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide:
    Edmonton Oilers
    @EdmontonOilers
    ·
    3m
    The #Oilers have signed forward Brad Malone & goaltender Shane Starrett to one-year contract extensions.

    Centers and goalies, centers and goalies.

    Starrett was a no-brainer – CF has it at $700K and no reference to 2-way but its unconfirmed. I’m fine with a one-way, no consequence to us.

    I’m absolutely fine with Malone although a bit surprised. Given he’s now on the wrong side of 30, I thought they might move on from him and try and find a “younger veteran”. As long as he doesn’t see the NHL – he is a high-end performed at the AHL level, his game simply doesn’t translate.

  122. Yeti says:

    leadfarmer:
    Yeti,

    This is why I think he will go top 10.There’s a lot of boom bust types after the first 3 picks and Broberg I find to be a pretty safe pick.

    Agreed!
    But – just in case there was any misunderstanding – that was a slightly shortened version of Swedishposter’s take on Broberg (not mine!), with a link to his original, much longer and very fine account of Swedish draft eligible players.

  123. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Ryan,

    Even if he does, pairing the extension price with the acquisition cost seems counterproductive towards our goals as improving as a franchise.

    Right now the players the Oilers have who beat top end comp with a variety of linemates:

    McDavid

    If they add Hall, they’d have two.

    That improves the franchise significantly.

    Hall outscored the best with 93, Eberle with Petry and Marincin behind him.

    That’s pretty good and that’s still his level.

    X-97-29
    4-93-X

    With the current Dcorps would out-score top 6 minutes.

    You’d just have to not be awful in the bottom 6.

    Tambellini, MacT and Pete created awful bottom 6’s.

    Maybe Holland can do better.

  124. jake70 says:

    OriginalPouzar:

    Given he’s now on the wrong side of 30,

    He turned 30 14 days ago. Just sayin. (you said the same comment 2 days after he turned 30)

  125. Ryan says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Ryan,

    Even if he does, pairing the extension price with the acquisition cost seems counterproductive towards our goals as improving as a franchise.

    Right now the players the Oilers have who beat top end comp with a variety of linemates:

    McDavid

    If they add Hall, they’d have two.

    That improves the franchise significantly.

    Hall outscored the best with 93, Eberle with Petry and Marincin behind him.

    That’s pretty good and that’s still his level.

    X-97-29
    4-93-X

    With the current Dcorps would out-score top 6 minutes.

    You’d just have to not be awful in the bottom 6.

    Tambellini,MacT and Pete created awful bottom 6’s.

    Maybe Holland can do better.

    Well, when a team like San Jose trades for Karlsson, the risk of him walking away is mitigated by their ability to take a run for a cup during the last year of his contract.

    On that note, you and I had some sort of bet about Karlsson of which I forgot the parameters. It was a $100 donation to the charity of winner’s choice. I will if he signs in San Jose and you win if ??? I couldn’t have possibly given you 30/31 odds on that bet, did I?

    Also San Jose has depth throughout the organization along with the ability to attract decent filler free agents at reasonable prices…

    If we go all in on Hall, we’re not in a position to take a cup run next year.

    The big question is what does full value on the trade look like?

    A first and second round pick for 2020, Yamomoto, Kassian and Lagesson?

  126. leadfarmer says:

    Ryan,

    More like whoever we draft 8ov or Bouchard + Yamamoto + Bear

  127. Material Elvis says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – I think BLH is awesome: he’s a funny guy, knows a few people, does enough to keep entertained.He’s a breath of fresh air in an otherwise plan-vanilla “reporting” from other sources

    – So he gets it wrong: he has insights: if you don’t like him, don’t read him, or post about it, not sure why he has to be mocked or bashed because you or others disagree with what he writes

    Don’t patronize me Kinger. When you write bullshit and put it onto a public domain, you open yourself up to criticism. His response to said criticism earns him needles from people like me. Perhaps he’s the most likable guy in Canada, but that doesn’t excuse these ridiculous rumors he posts, in an attempt to be an insider (e5).

  128. Glovjuice says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – Re Hall.He had this to say: “”Following the NBA more closely with this Raptors run has really opened my eyes to how great a league it is. There is a real sense of bravado and showmanship that you don’t see in other sports. The stars are on display every night and it’s impressive,”

    – The NBA has very colourful caracters.It’s the Hockey culture though: a guy like PK: the players don’t like him.Showboating: players need to teach that guy a lesson. Yak’s hockey goal celebrations were awesome (and hated by virtually the whole league) And if I hear another player saying they “give 110%”. these NBA Finals are great in terms of some the beaking off and chriping: it’s all done with the appropriate amount of jest

    – McD and Crosby: they are about as boring bland personas for a sport that you could come up with.they are just awful in interviews: never say anything.But this is the Hockey “way”Dumb stuff like not touching the Conference Cups, even though you’ve gone through war to get to the finals…

    This is a good post till the silly war part.

  129. Glovjuice says:

    Jaxon:
    If any of these guys are available, this is the order I’d take them in:

    Cozens
    Byram
    Caufield
    Turcotte
    Kaliyev

    Newhook and Podkolzin are the mysteries for me. Not enough data on those leagues and they have the opposite problems (competition too hard vs competition too easy). Outside of Hughes, Caufield, and Turcotte, I don’t think I’d take a USNTDP player. I even have my doubts that those three are as good as their numbers suggest and Hughes’ Adjusted 5v5 P1/60 numbers don’t suggest all that great a player. Turcotte’s TOI worries me, but his production is 3rd best in the past 15 years going back to Crosby. Caufield’s production and TOI numbers have him as the only one on the team who meets both thresholds of a fairly certain top 6 player in my opinion, but his size may be an issue. I like how Turcotte plays, though, I think Chicago will have a hard time passing him up. I’m even tempted to puch Kaliyev up ahead of Turcotte and Caufield.

    USNTDP would be akin to Cozens, Dach, Krebs, Byram, Tomasino, Lavoie, Pelletier, Newhook, Harley, Suzuki, Thomson, Legare, Beaucage, Poulin, Foote, McMichael, Jamieson, M Robertson, etc all playing on the same team against WHL OHL and QMJHL teams all year without those players and without their 19 and 20 year olds. You’d think they’d be scoring even more than that. “But what about the National tournaments?” you say? Well, they have a very big advantage there as well. They play together all year long bonding, getting to know their coaches systems, creating on-ice chemistry, while all the other teams are thrown together in a week or two prior to the tournament. Of course they’re going to look good. So I’d be wary of drafting them. Good players? Sure. Of course, but I think they might be zoomed enough by their situation and teammates that some of them shouldn’t be considered in the top 15 or 20.

    This is awesome. First draft ever to test this theory out. Gonna be great to watch the next five years on these guys.

  130. thehop says:

    Material Elvis,

    The dreaded Hockeybuzz Eklund referemce!

    Thank you for the nostalgic walk down horseshit lane good sir.

  131. ArmchairGM says:

    Ryan: I really like Hall and find that he’s a fairly cerebral player in terms of analytics and comparing the NHL / contract structures across different sporting leagues. I could see him having a role in hockey after he retires.

    I’d also really like to have Hall back.

    However, I can’t see how it would be feasible to pay the full acquisition cost with the inherent risk that he doesn’t extend the contract.

    Even if he does, pairing the extension price with the acquisition cost seems counterproductive towards our goals as improving as a franchise.

    Using the Karlsson trade as an outer marker of a template, they traded a 1st, 2nd rounder along with a few prospects [former 1st (Josh Norris) and 5th (Rudolf Balcers] along with Chris Tierney and Dillan Demello.

    Now the price for Hall would be less than Karlsson, but you would still be looking at what a 1st, probably second, and a few good prospects???

    We don’t have the cap space, prospect depth, or pipeline of players to pull off this trade. (nor the ability to sign cheap effect free agents)

    We do have the cap space, but not the other items necessary. I favour signing him as a UFA for that reason. If he doesn’t become available then I would consider Dadonov and Kreider, but not long term as I would with Hall.

    https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/230154

  132. Jaxon says:

    McSorley33:
    Jaxon,

    You may be right. A little while ago I was posting about Turcotte, wondering why he wasn’t being considered for #1 or #2. His complete game, his speed, his tenacity, and his production are pretty special and he’s been overshadowed by Hughes who didn’t score anywhere close to his rate. His TOI was the only thing that concerned me.
    *************************************************************************************************
    I will tell you what….Chicago took 2 D with their first 2 draft picks last year.
    ( Boqvist & Beaudin)

    They did the same in 2017. ( Jokiharju & Mitchell)

    Now,if they add Turcotte we could be looking at a fairly smooth‘re-tooling’ in the
    windy city.

    Turcotte , Strome at C and RHD of Boqvist and Jokiharju…..

    Not to mention Turcotte is local and models his game after Toews and is going the same route. Toews was also drafted 3rd. I think Chicago will have a tough time passing on Turcotte.

  133. ArmchairGM says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Taylor Hall has gone on record saying he’s already made his money and his next contract will be about which team gives him the best chance to win the Cup.

    Doubt that’s Edmonton over the next year.

    https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/230154

  134. Rube Foster says:

    Question for those with bigger brains than I.

    Assuming that Dach & Cozens are off the board at 8th hole, is there some kind of combination of calculus and witchcraft in which the Oilers trade the 8th, 38th and an asset for two picks in the 10 to 20 range?

  135. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: OP will be pleased!

    I’ve got zero issue with them re-signing Malone and have expressed that opinion throughout this off-season.

    He is a fantastic player at the AHL level and a big part of the success of the Condors (and their success is important). His game does not translate to the NHL level, however, I don’t imagine he plays an NHL game next year for the Oilers.

  136. OriginalPouzar says:

    Durag:
    Jim Matheson

    @NHLbyMatty
    Following Following @NHLbyMatty
    More
    Shane Starrett rewarded with one-way $700,000 contract. Same dough if he plays in Edm or Bakersfield. His salary was $70,000 last year for Condors.
    _______________________________________________________________

    Maybe Ken already has his backup in mind!

    Essentially zero chance of that I would think – Holland has been very clear one of his top priorities is an established 1B tender.

    Good for Shane – he earned that contract.

  137. ArmchairGM says:

    Rube Foster:
    Question for those with bigger brains than I.

    Assuming that Dach & Cozens are off the board at 8th hole, is there some kind of combination of calculus and witchcraft in which the Oilers trade the 8th, 38th and an asset for two picks in the 10 to 20 range?

    Who has 2 picks in the 10-20 range?

  138. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer:
    OriginalPouzar,

    I would definitely have to gauge the interest in re-signing with my team if I acquired him but if it seemed like he would be interested I would most definitely do it and pay the acquisition cost.These guys don’t grow on trees.
    These are the players you want to spend the cap on.Jeff Skinner will get 9 mil a year and while elite at putting pucks in net he’s isn’t in any other facet and would not spend money on him
    Spend your cap on elite players and surround them with guys on shortest contracts possible
    Hall can drive a line by himself.These are the only players worth acquiring for their late 20 early to mid 30 years because you are not able to get these players any other way

    I’m going to disagree completely – these are the type of contracts teams should be staying away from – retirement contracts – paying massive money for the better part of a decade for the player’s decline.

    I don’t want the players at that age, not for the contracts required.

    Also, yes, these players do get traded at or before their primes – Hall, Seguin (2nd time), Panarin, Jumbo Joe, etc.

  139. Rube Foster says:

    ArmchairGM: Who has 2 picks in the 10-20 range?

    No team has two picks in the 10 – 20 range, hence the witchcraft comment:)

    It’s an exercise in hypothetical gymnastics, lets say we trade down from 8th spot to the 10 – 15 range for a a swap of first rounds picks and a second round pick.

    Could we then turn two second round picks and an asset into another first round pick in the 15 – 20 range?

    Its a speculative and hypothetical question, but might Kaliyev and Lavoie be worth more than Krebs and the 38th and a fourth?

    … the ridiculous things we Oiler fans contemplate while other NHL teams fan’s focus on the Stanley Cup playoffs:)

  140. Munny says:

    Cherry: “Ask them what they eat….”

    Was said to hear pasta and rice repped in every answer.

  141. Munny says:

    Rube Foster,

    I think you would have difficulty finding a team willing to give up a 2nd to move up a few spots.

  142. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Glovjuice: This is a good post till the silly war part.

    -? No one actually conflates war with NHL playoffs. . It’s a figure of speech very commonly used. They didn’t actually go to war. It would be silly to think they did or take offense to commonly used vernacular.

  143. Todd Macallan says:

    Was hoping for Dylan Cozens to say Yukon Gold when asked about pre game meal. Both the potatoes and the beer.

  144. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Ryan: Well, when a team like San Jose trades for Karlsson, the risk of him walking away is mitigated by their ability to take a run for a cup during the last year of his contract.

    On that note, you and I had some sort of bet about Karlsson of which I forgot the parameters.It was a $100 donation to the charity of winner’s choice. I will if he signs in San Jose and you win if ??? I couldn’t have possibly given you 30/31 odds on that bet, did I?

    Also San Jose has depth throughout the organization along with the ability to attract decent filler free agents at reasonable prices…

    If we go all in on Hall, we’re not in a position to take a cup run next year.

    The big question is what does full value on the trade look like?

    A first and second round pick for 2020, Yamomoto, Kassian and Lagesson?

    I don’t trade for Hall unless he signs an extension.

    I took TBY, but you may have given me all 30

  145. rickithebear says:

    Went thru half a season of Nurses shifts around goals.

    Assigned a negative to rover who abandon 3-2-1 for a 4-1-1 and the rover fails to re – establish a 2-1 coverage of HD area resulting in a goal.

    Nurse was – 28 thru that half season.

    -28 cause that god awful rover could not re establish 2-1.

    Quit all this dithering about how great rovers are when they are GA nightmares.

    Do not want to waste my time on a Klefbom.

    A Rover nightmare of epic proportion!

    Suspect Larsson ends up +40 for the season.

  146. Munny says:

    rickithebear: Suspect Larsson ends up +40 for the season.

    I have great difficulty believing Larsson “roved” 40 times last season. And pretty much no belief that 40 would be his “differential”.

  147. Munny says:

    Huge goal. ROR has been the best player on the ice tonight.

  148. Lowetide says:

    Big, big win for the Blues.

  149. defmn says:

    Lowetide:
    Big, big win for the Blues.

    Heavy on the ‘big’. 😉

  150. Munny says:

    Lowetide:
    Big, big win for the Blues.

    Biggest in franchise history.

  151. Munny says:

    Rights to Kevin Hayes acquired by the Flyers for a 5th.

  152. Bag of Pucks says:

    That was a fantastic hockey game. Physical. Intense. Dramatic. Gutty.

    Best of 3 and Bruins defense getting wore down. The Playoffs are a battle of attrition.

    Go Blues!!!

  153. Bag of Pucks says:

    Berube goes with the old fashioned checking line to shut down the Bergeron line. Worked beautifully.

    Good call Coach!

  154. Bag of Pucks says:

    Munny: Biggest in franchise history.

    Until the next one 😉

  155. Lowetide says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Berube goes with the old fashioned checking line to shut down the Bergeron line. Worked beautifully.

    Good call Coach!

    It’ll be harder to get that matchup in Boston, but the Bruins top-six forwards are becoming a story in this series.

  156. Bag of Pucks says:

    Lowetide: It’ll be harder to get that matchup in Boston, but the Bruins top-six forwards are becoming a story in this series.

    You betcha. And special teams.

    Have to stay out of the box against the Bs.

  157. rickithebear says:

    Munny,

    The dman in 1-1 does not get a negative. It goes to the rover who caused the 2-1 not to be established.
    Even if they go off the ice and another dman replaces him but is unable to restore a 2-1 in HD area.

    The High danger area is the true D zone.
    Perimeter is part of NZ.
    True NZ is HD area to HD area.

    Blue line is Zone entry line.
    Entry is most reduced by Forward NZ trap.
    A situation measure based on teammates.
    A 3D ZS, Team, Comp

    A little insight to how a proper multidimensional map is created.

    Rovers generate offence @ a 4th line forward rate.
    3 times worse than the top 6 forwards.

    Most rovers do not even penetrate the opps real DZ the HD area.

    Enough of this outdated thinking!

  158. Glovjuice says:

    OriginalPouzar: After opening night in Gothenburg, I thought they were on the verge of becoming one of the league’s elite teams.

    Sample size of one game.

  159. Munny says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    That was a fantastic hockey game. Physical. Intense. Dramatic. Gutty.

    Best of 3 and Bruins defense getting wore down. The Playoffs are a battle of attrition.

    Go Blues!!!

    That ungordly shift during the 2nd.. which results in a penalty and then a shortie against and the Blues don’t crumble but battle harder.

    Rask has been insane. But Binnington pops that big juicy rebound to give his team a break the other way and it totally blows up in his face… but then he shuts the door with the pressure on and a bad outing at home last game, What a rook!

  160. Glovjuice says:

    Jordan:
    Gregor insinuating that Hall would be more willing / interested in coming back with the new management team in place.

    Also that there may interested in re-acquiring the player (may just be hearsay).

    You know who might be great wingers for RNH… Taylor and Jordan.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dzOHq5WbQ8k

    I predict Hall will come back at a discount. Save this post. He was devastated not to win here. $50 large vs. $100. What’s the difference really.

  161. Bag of Pucks says:

    Munny: That ungordly shift during the 2nd.. which results in a penalty and then a shortie against and the Blues don’t crumble but battle hard.

    True dat. A lesser team would’ve caved after that shortie.

    Two great teams with neither giving an inch.

    We’ll see who blinks first.

  162. Glovjuice says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: -?No one actually conflates war with NHL playoffs. . It’s afigure of speech very commonly used. They didn’t actually go to war.It would be silly to think they did or take offense to commonly used vernacular.

    Re-read your full post and you will see the irony.

  163. YKOil says:

    I do like all of the little moves Holland has been taking. Small signings to be sure, but indicative of smart thinking.

  164. Ryan says:

    Glovjuice: Sample size of one game.

    The Devils are a fast team and everything was clicking that night.

    They really did look all-world against the Oilers that game.

    Contrary to our expectations, that game did not portend how good the Devils were but rather how terrible the Oilers were.

  165. Ryan says:

    leadfarmer:
    Ryan,

    More like whoever we draft 8ov or Bouchard + Yamamoto + Bear

    My estimate could be a little light, but conversely I think yours is a little rich.

    Bouchard alone would be too much for one year of Hall.

    One year of Hall only really has any value to a team that thinks it can contend for the cup next year. These teams are who you’re bidding against and it’s unlikely any have high end prospects drafted in the top ten to offer.

    San Jose already went all in on Karlsson. Columbus did their thing. Unlikely Toronto or the Bolts have the cap space. Who knows Doug Armstrong always finds a way.

    The Habs foolishly traded Sergachev for Drouin who himself was an RFA iirc.

    I’ll be amazed if the Hall trade nets the Devils more than a 1st and second rounder, decent prospect drafted in the first and a couple okay roster players.

    Look at the Ryan O’Reilly trade and he had four years left on the contract and the Blues picked up the cost of his Bonus.

    – 1st rounder 2019 – obviously not a great pick now.

    – 2nd rounder 2021

    – Tage Thompson. 26 ov pick 2016.

    – Sobotka and Bergland. Two garbage roster players.

  166. OriginalPouzar says:

    Glovjuice: Sample size of one game.

    Don’t you base your entire position on Samorukov on one play he made earlier in the year?

  167. slopitch says:

    Would never happen but…

    Trade Nuge to Colorado for 4 and 16
    Draft Bryam, Couzens and Seider
    Offer sheet Marner

    Oilers have 3 years of elc on Bouchard and the 3 2019 1sts which arent expansion eligible. They would need to move Sekera out for wingers but lordy would that team be ready to win in time for the lockout 😉

  168. Jaxon says:

    These are the players I’m hoping squeak into the top 7 picks from 3 to 7. How many of these 5 players do you think might get picked from 3 to 7? Listed with highest rank of 18 rankings and lowest.
    Player – High – Low
    Dach – 3 – 15
    Podkolzin- 3 – 17
    Zegras – 4 – 21
    Krebs – 5 – 17
    Boldy – 6 – 17
    I think there is a decent chance at least two of these players gets picked higher than 8th, maybe more. All we need is 3 to get picked and Edmonton could have one of Cozens, Byram, Turcotte, Kaliyev or Caufield. The problem is that Edmonton, too, might pick one of Dach, Podkolzin, Zegras, Krebs or Boldy.

    These players are very unlikely to get picked higher than 8th but stranger things have happened. In fact, stranger things happen almost every year.
    Player – High – Low
    Broberg – 5 – 33
    Newhook – 7 – 27
    Suzuki – 8 – 28
    York – 9 – 22
    Harley – 10 – 35
    Seider – 11 – 35
    Heinola – 12 – 41
    One of Broberg, York, Harley, Seider, or Heinola might sneek in as the 2nd D in the draft if a team misses out on Byram. I know Seider really impressed at the U18s and the combine, so his stock may be rising. Maybe Edmonton will be considering him. Might be a great teammate for Draisaitl.

    The more of these players that get in the better the chance that Edmonton will be choosing from:
    Cozens – 3 – 9
    Byram – 3 – 10
    Turcotte – 3 – 11
    Kaliyev – 3 – 17
    Caufield – 5 – 30

    It won’t, but IF the draft unfolded:
    Kakko
    Hughes
    Dach
    Podkolzin
    Zegras
    Krebs
    Boldy
    Who would you pick at #8?

    Stranger things, my friends… stranger things.

    Best case for Edmonton as there is a slim to nil chance that Cozens, Turcotte and Byram don’t go in the top 7?
    Kakko
    Hughes
    Turcotte
    Byram
    Cozens
    Dach
    Zegras
    Krebs
    As I think Dach, Krebs and Zegras would be the most tempting for Edmonton and thus lessen the chances of picking the goal scoring machines Kaliyev or Caufield.

    Who would they pick from
    Kaliyev (scored at pace with greats like Tavares (9.25 months older), Stamkos (4.5 months older), Skinner (1.25 months older) and Debrincat (6.25 months older)
    Caufield (best goal/gp scorer in the history of the USNTDP with 72G in 64GP. Next best is Kessel with 41G in 41 GP)
    Podkolzin (too many unknowns?)
    Boldy (the least wanted of the top 5 USNTDP players)

    I think a pure goal scorer is what Edmonton needs most, so I hope Caufield and Kaliyev are their best options at #8. Although, Draisaitl as proven to be one of the best goal scorers in the NHL, he is still a great setup man. McDavid can do anything. Nuge is okay but still not considered a sniper. The upcoming crop is largely setup guys like Benson, Yamamoto, Puljujarvi (debatable). Maksimov has shown promise at the junior level but we still don’t know how much of that will come with him. Putting Kaliyev or Caufield on McDavid’s or Draisaitl’s wing in the future might unlock some crazy production and divide up the scoring between the top two lines a bit more. Fingers crossed.

  169. Pescador says:

    Jaxon:
    These are the players I’m hoping squeak into the top 7 picks from 3 to 7. How many of these 5 players do you think might get picked from 3 to 7? Listed with highest rank of 18 rankings and lowest.
    Player–High–Low
    Dach–3–15
    Podkolzin-3–17
    Zegras–4–21
    Krebs–5–17
    Boldy–6–17
    I think there is a decent chance at least two of these players gets picked higher than 8th, maybe more. All we need is 3 to get picked and Edmonton could have one of Cozens, Byram, Turcotte, Kaliyev or Caufield. The problem is that Edmonton, too, might pick one of Dach, Podkolzin, Zegras, Krebs or Boldy.

    These players are very unlikely to get picked higher than 8th but stranger things have happened. In fact, stranger things happen almost every year.
    Player–High–Low

    Broberg–5–33
    Newhook–7–27
    Suzuki–8–28
    York –9–22
    Harley–10–35
    Heinola–12–41

    The more of these players that get in the better the chance that Edmonton will be choosing from:
    Cozens–3–9
    Byram–3–10
    Turcotte–3–11
    Kaliyev–3–17
    Caufield–5–30

    It won’t but IF the draft unfolded:
    Kakko
    Hughes
    Dach
    Podkolzin
    Zegras
    Krebs
    Boldy

    Who would you pick at #8?

    Stranger things, my friends… stranger things.

    After studying each prospect realistically available between 5-15, my estimation is that these players will be available to the Oilers at #8:
    Boldy
    Caufield
    Krebs
    Podkolzin
    Newhook
    Kaliyev
    Broberg
    Lavoie
    My personal preference would be for the Oilers to trade down about 4-5 spots & collect an NHL winger or an additional draft pick to then trade for an NHL winger or 3C as part of a package
    Then I would draft Lavoie or Kaliyev

  170. Jaxon says:

    Pescador: After studying each prospect realistically available between 5-15, my estimation is that these players will be available to the Oilers at #8:
    Boldy
    Caufield
    Krebs
    Podkolzin
    Newhook
    Kaliyev
    Broberg
    Lavoie
    My personal preference would be for the Oilers to trade down about 4-5 spots & collect an NHL winger or an additional draft pick to then trade for an NHL winger or 3C as part of a package
    Then I would draft Lavoie or Kaliyev

    Broberg might be a player that helps as well as he might be the 2nd best D and therefore some time might pick him in the top 7 if they miss out on Byram.

  171. Pescador says:

    Jaxon: Broberg might be a player that helps as well as he might be the 2nd best D and therefore some time might pick him in the top 7 if they miss out on Byram.

    I’m basing my board on BPA, which every team professes to select.
    I have Broberg as a bit of a reach pick if selected in the top 7.
    More likely selected 11-15 is my guess

  172. OriginalPouzar says:

    I like the Ennis though – a nice cheap bet to provide a value contract and top 6 production – I throw Pirri in there as well.

    I worry about the Connolly signing if the term is too long.

    He’s gone one season over 27 points.

    He’s likely a good bet for 15 goals but who knows if he’s more than a 30 point guy.

    Is he Alex Chiasson X 2?

  173. rickithebear says:

    Russell an elite 0% corsi Dman.
    Suffers the most from rovers failing to restablish 2-1 structure that Conf final teams maintain.
    He had the best 3d situation comp numbers with Larsson.
    Minimal break down of 2-1 structure.

    Enough Old boys thinking!

    We no longer have the top 125 forward depth needed to outscore the repetative 2-1 Defensive (HD) zone break down caused by Nurse and Klefbom.

    Klefbom & Nurse generate pathetic opp def (HD) zone penetration on their 2-1 abandoning rovering.

  174. rickithebear says:

    I have been away for pretty much a year +.
    Has their been any discussion of trying JP at C.
    His speed and distribution might be best suited at C.

    That is a video based non math observation.

  175. Bobcaygeon says:

    Been away for sometime but happy to be back.

    I think the Oilers need to be a little more aggressive than Elliot.

    I wonder if Holland might be more interested in Semyon Varlamov or Jake Allen.

    “The only job worse than goalie is a javelin catcher at a track- and- field meet.”

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca