Blood on the Tracks

There are only 50 spots available and most NHL teams leave room for a waiver claim or a mid-season trade. Since Ken Holland was named general manager, the Edmonton Oilers have signed one free agent (Joakim Nygard) and several players under organizational control but in need of a contract (Logan Day, Joe Gambardella, plus the Monday signings). Goalie Olivier Rodrigue, who will play in the QMJHL in 2019-20, also signed his entry deal.

Yesterday, Ken Holland signed goaltender Shane Starrett and center Brad Malone — and the Malone signing is the point at which we can begin to discuss the group of players who may not be coming back. Malone’s presence on the 50-man means there will be blood on the tracks.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group. INSANE OFFER IS HERE!

  • New Lowetide: Is Zack Kassian the answer for the McDavid-Draisaitl line?
  • Lowetide: NHL Combine brings Oilers dual problems into focus for Ken Holland
  • Lowetide: Analyzing the Oilers roster to see which players fit Dave Tippett’s ‘aggressive, fast team’ approach
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Dave Tippett’s coaching philosophy, how he relays information to his players and why information is king
  • Lowetide: What will Ken Holland see in Evan Bouchard?
  • Lowetide: Does Oilers’ signing of Joakim Nygard signal a measured approach to summer 2019?
  • Lowetide: Dave Tippett’s roster deployment in Arizona and what it might mean for the Oilers
  • Jonathan Willis: Why Ken Holland’s worst years in Detroit tell us the most about how he’ll fare in Edmonton
  • Jonathan Willis: Three offseason scenarios and how each one would affect the Oilers salary cap
  • Lowetide: Examining the Oilers’ goaltending options in free agency.
  • Jonathan Willis: Every Oilers AHL prospect, rated by how close they are to the NHL
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Protector, supporter, confidant: Connor McDavid’s mom, Kelly, is his off-ice rock through good times and bad
  • Lowetide: An offseason plan for Ken Holland to remodel the Oilers roster.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland steadfast that buck stops with him as new Oilers GM.
  • Lowetide: How will Ken Holland proceed in Year 1 as Oilers general manager?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Prioritizing the roster issues that await Ken Holland in Edmonton.
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s procurement list for his rumored move to Edmonton will include front-office personnel
  • Jonathan Willis: A Milan Lucic trade is at the top of the to-do list for the Oilers’ next GM.

CURRENT 50-MAN (41)

Malone’s addition means we’re probably going to be saying goodbye to a significant piece of last year’s roster. The remaining NHL RFA’s (Tobias Rieder, Jesse Puljujarvi, Jujhar Khaira, Ty Rattie) all have a chance to return, although one can’t imagine what the organization might have to do in order to retain Rieder. The minor league rfa’s (Tyler Vesel, Colin Larkin, Robin Norell) offer less of a challenge.

Ryan Mantha’s situation may also be resolved and we’ll get some indication about Hayden Hawkey, Vincent Desharnais and we’ve already heard about Joey Dudek (he’s gone). Let’s proceed as if the Oilers sign JP, Khaira and Rattie, with Rieder, Vesel, Larkin and Norell all falling off the roster. Meaning the 50-man would be sitting at 44 (depending on Mantha).

Malone’s signing means there is room for two more centers. McDavid and Nuge represent two NHL spots and I think Marody, Brodziak and Cave will be in the mix for the No. 4 NHL job. Third-line center? Suspect that will be a trade or free-agent acquisition over the summer, meaning we’re up to 45. I’ve chosen Luke Glendening because he can skate and PK.

Center: McDavid-Nuge-Luke Glendening-Marody-Cave. AHL Center: Brodziak-Malone-McLeod and the group of AHL signees who can play the position.

Nygard’s signing gives more speed to the left side, but doesn’t solve the No. 2 LW issue. I expect we’ll see an NHL player added over the summer, for our purposes today we’ll use Tyler Ennis, which brings us to 46.

Left Wing: Draisaitl-Ennis-Khaira-Lucic-Nygard. AHL LW: Benson, Gambardella, Vesey, Safin plus the AHL contracts.

It would have been so good if one of the kids could have emerged last season but it didn’t happen. I have the Oilers spending bigger dollars here than anywhere else on the roster. In adding Brett Connolly, RW will become a mostly veteran group. Puljujarvi or Yamamoto would hopefully push for Kassian’s role.

Right Wing: Kassian-Connolly-Puljujarvi-Gagner. AHL RW: Yamamoto, Rattie, Currie, Hebig, Maksimov.

One of the most interesting pieces of the puzzle will involve defense this summer. Holland has a play he can make any time (Caleb Jones) but what will he use it on? My trade in today’s roster fun is Kris Russell to Detroit in the Glendening deal. I remain onside with a second pairing of Nurse-Benning: In 485 minutes together over the last three seasons, the duo has posted a 51.48 percent Corsi 5-on-5, a 5-on-5 shot differential of 50.37, and a goal share 5-on-5 of 62.26 percent.

Left Defense: Klefbom-Nurse-Sekera. AHL: Lagesson-Lowe-Manning-Samorukov and AHL contracts.

Russell gone, it’s a wide open fall and winter at the RHD position. I’d suggest we might see five or six RH blue in Edmonton this winter. You hope things settle down by the trade deadline.

Right Defense: Larsson-Benning-Jones-Persson. AHL: Bouchard, Bear, Day.

Starrett’s signing Monday, and the inevitable addition of a veteran free agent, have the way clear for this year’s team.

Goal: Mikko Koskinen, Brian Elliott. AHL: Starrett, Wells and Skinner, with the kids once again flying back and forth from the ECHL.

PROJECTED NHL ROSTER

PROJECTED AHL ROSTER

I wrote about Taylor Hall and the idea of Taylor Hall in a recent piece for The Athletic, saying “Oilers fans dream of high octane offence that features two impact lines. Those dreams could be awakened with one additional piece.” In the words of the great NHL general manager Steve Winwood, when you see a chance, take it.

I have Kirby Dach at No. 6 and believe he’ll go anywhere 5-10 in this year’s draft. I’m fairly certain he won’t be around when Edmonton picks, if I’m honest Cozens is the WHL forward who might fall into the Oilers’ laps.

My list is math, the Puck77 (brilliant site) crew give you the positives and the negatives and then it’s up to you. I think that’s the best way for a fan to evaluate prospects they haven’t seen. Get an idea from math about what they are and how that projects them, then find out about the negative (and how bad is it?) before deciding.

I think Dach and Cozens are gone by No. 8. If one of them is available, suspect Edmonton takes him. Now to the reason for this segment: If a guy in the media flies to Buffalo, and tells you his takeaway on the ground, from the industry, is that Dach goes top 5, and you tweet back to the guy that he’s merely greasing the skids for the local team to take him at No. 8? Well, I think you are overthinking it. Dach at No. 8 is music, Cozens too.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

After a weekend in Medicine Hat (hot, it’s already August there) we’re back at 10 this morning, TSN1260. Jonathan Willis from The Athletic will talk buyout options and Ken Holland’s early days. Steve Kournianos The Draft Analyst and The Sporting News joins me at 11 to talk 2019 NHL draft and we are in search of a guest to update Bruins-Blues final (Darren Pang has been mentioned but we haven’t yet secured him). 10-1260 text @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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177 Responses to "Blood on the Tracks"

  1. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – If they were all healthy and good:

    Klef-Larsson
    Nurse-Benning
    Sek-Jones

    – You’ve got most of D that are slotted properly, and if a Nurse-Benning worked, healthy Sek would be awesome to be McGyvering the kids

    – It’s also an injury to Sek + 20 games missed from Klef away from disaster…

  2. Lowetide says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – If they were all healthy and good:

    Klef-Larsson
    Nurse-Benning
    Sek-Jones

    – You’ve got most of D that are slotted properly, and if a Nurse-Benning worked, healthy Sek would be awesome to be McGyvering the kids

    – It’s also an injury to Sek + 20 games missed from Klef away from disaster…

    It’s a gamble, but Lagesson, Bouchard, Bear are matriculating. I can’t see a reasonable RH target who would be available for the period between now and Bouchard’s hopefully being ready. Benning is a solid, if imperfect, option.

  3. JJS says:

    Is there a Puljujarvi for Laine play?

    Winnipeg won’t be able to afford his next contract.

    Seeing Laine alongside McD or Drais, and in the Ovie PP spot for the next 7-8 years would be incredible.

    Clearing salary should be Holland’s primary focus come July 1. If the Oil can off-load Lucic and Russel, it opens up all kinds of business.

  4. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    I remain onside with a second pairing of Nurse-Benning: In 485 minutes together over the last three seasons, the duo has posted a 51.48 percent Corsi 5-on-5, a 5-on-5 shot differential of 50.37, and a goal share 5-on-5 of 62.26 percent.

    I’m still very leery of penciling in Benning as 2RD.

    In the 485 minutes you mention, 249 of them are from 16/17 where they were played 3rd pair together.

    If we look at each of the last 3 seasons on their own we see this: (all results via naturalstattrick.com)

    18/19 (2nd pair comp)
    139min
    CF% 48.6
    GF% 55.7
    xGF% 48.7
    OZS% 50.7

    Kinda meh, but not terrible.

    17/18 (probably 2nd pair comp)
    96 min
    CF% 58.1
    GF% 83.3
    xGF% 58.7
    OZS 50%

    Good results and ran hotter than the Sun. These 96 minutes skew the whole sample quite a bit GF%-wise.

    16/17 (3rd pair comp)
    249min
    CF% 50.1
    GF% 56.5
    xGF% 51.4
    OZS 56.3

    Solid, but unspectacular results in the 3rd pair (3rd pair Dmen should generally lead in CF% and GF% imo)

    So we see over half their sample being from 3 seasons ago when they played 3rd pair, a hot small sample 2 seasons ago and a meh results last season in still a smallish sample.

    I don’t think this gives us enough to pencil Benning in on the 2nd pair.

    As always, ymmv.

    Addendum:

    Benning is a solid, if imperfect, option.

    I can agree with that.

  5. Jaxon says:

    These are the players I’m hoping squeak into the top 7 picks from 3 to 7. How many of these 5 players do you think might get picked from 3 to 7? Listed with highest rank of 18 rankings and lowest.
    Player – High – Low
    Dach – 3 – 15
    Podkolzin- 3 – 17
    Zegras – 4 – 21
    Krebs – 5 – 17
    Boldy – 6 – 17
    I think there is a decent chance at least two of these players gets picked higher than 8th, maybe more. All we need is 3 to get picked and Edmonton could have one of Cozens, Byram, Turcotte, Kaliyev or Caufield. The problem is that Edmonton, too, might pick one of Dach, Podkolzin, Zegras, Krebs or Boldy. As many of you know, I put a lot of stock in 5v5 Primary Points / 60 Adjusted to Age and League and Era, possibly to my detriment. I just don’t see enough production from Dach or Krebs to warrant a high pick over other elite producers like Turcotte, Cozens, Caufield, & Kaliyev. and as mentioned in many posts, I’m just not sure about Zegras and Boldy. There is bound to be someone being zoomed out of Hughes, Caufield, Turcotte, Zegras and Boldy and I really don’t think it’s the first 3. That program really messes with the numbers.

    These players are very unlikely to get picked higher than 8th but stranger things have happened. In fact, stranger things happen almost every year.
    Player – High – Low
    Broberg – 5 – 33
    Newhook – 7 – 27
    Suzuki – 8 – 28
    York – 9 – 22
    Harley – 10 – 35
    Seider – 11 – 35
    Heinola – 12 – 41
    One of Broberg, York, Harley, Seider, or Heinola might sneek in as the 2nd D in the draft if a team misses out on Byram. I know Seider really impressed at the U18s and the combine, so his stock may be rising. Maybe Edmonton will be considering him. Might be a great teammate for Draisaitl.

    The more of these players that get in the better the chance that Edmonton will be choosing from:
    Cozens – 3 – 9
    Byram – 3 – 10
    Turcotte – 3 – 11
    Kaliyev – 3 – 17
    Caufield – 5 – 30

    It won’t, but IF the draft unfolded:
    Kakko
    Hughes
    Dach
    Podkolzin
    Zegras
    Krebs
    Boldy
    Who would you pick at #8?

    Stranger things, my friends… stranger things.

    Best case for Edmonton as there is a slim to nil chance that Cozens, Turcotte and Byram don’t go in the top 7?
    Kakko
    Hughes
    Turcotte
    Byram
    Cozens
    Dach
    Zegras
    Krebs
    As I think Dach, Krebs and Zegras would be the most tempting for Edmonton and thus lessen the chances of picking the goal scoring machines Kaliyev or Caufield.

    Who would they pick from
    Kaliyev (scored at pace with greats like Tavares (9.25 months older), Stamkos (4.5 months older), Skinner (1.25 months older) and Debrincat (6.25 months older)
    Caufield (best goal/gp scorer in the history of the USNTDP with 72G in 64GP. Next best is Kessel with 41G in 41 GP)
    Podkolzin (too many unknowns?)
    Boldy (the least wanted of the top 5 USNTDP players)

    I think a pure goal scorer is what Edmonton needs most, so I hope Caufield and Kaliyev are their best options at #8. Although, Draisaitl has proven to be one of the best goal scorers in the NHL, he is still a great setup man. McDavid can do anything. Nuge is okay but still not considered a sniper. The upcoming crop is largely setup guys like Benson, Yamamoto, Puljujarvi (debatable). Maksimov has shown promise at the junior level but we still don’t know how much of that will come with him. Putting Kaliyev or Caufield on McDavid’s or Draisaitl’s wing in the future might unlock some crazy production and divide up the scoring between the top two lines a bit more. Fingers crossed.

  6. HT Joe says:

    With all of the verbal about Hall and the Oilers, is the question if Hall will be traded to the Oilers in the 2019-2020 season (in which case he has no say in the matter)?

    Because if the verbal is regarding Hall signing here willingly once he becomes UFA, I just don’t see it.
    After the way the media piled on him, management didn’t defend him, and a large portion of the fans (or at least a large portion of the vocal fans) spewed personal attacks regarding his effort or character, why would Taylor Hall willingly return to this fish bowl?

    I will never be able to understand his situation, but I just expect that he would rather sign with Calgary as a big FU, instead of returning to the team that traded him away before they had a single season of Hall and McDavid healthy together.

  7. bwar says:

    I’m not sure I can get behind a NHL contract for Ty Rattie this year. All for him playing in Bakersfield but with how limited the contracts are getting, I don’t feel he’s done enough for a resigning. Maybe you lose himn to another organization but I don’t feel that hurts us very much if it does happen.

  8. GMB3 says:

    OriginalPouzar: No thanks because I don’t want to pay Spurgeon for his 30s.

    I would LOVE Spurgeon for next year, however, he’d be a one-year rental in my mind and I’m not enamoured by Zucker like many are.

    Bump from the last thread as I was travelling last night and just got to your response this morning.

    If you don’t mind me asking, what is it about Zucker you don’t find enamouring? I think he’s a great candidate for a bounce back season, and Don Lucyschen (I have no idea how to spell his last name tbch) wrote an excellent article on the athletic outlining why.

    Some key takeaways from that article

    His 5v5 scoring last three seasons: 2.33p/60, 2.10 p/60, 1.33 p/60.
    He saw a dip in shooting percentage, falling to 6.9% (nice), down from 11.7%. The Wild only scored on 5.7% of shots with him on the ice, down from 9.5%.

    To quote Dom, “With Zucker on the ice, the Wild create more dangerous opportunities than the Golden Knights with Marchessault or the Penguins with Kessel, but the even larger difference is in their own zone. Zucker’s play defensively is a net positive while the latter two seem to bleed chances, specifically Kessel who has very much earned his reputation as a weak defensive player over the last few seasons.”

    A defensible responsible forward with speed who appears to be due for a bounce back offensively after posting *only* 42 points, which would have placed him fourth in scoring in Edmonton. He’s only 27, would seriously alter the dynamic in the Oilers top 6, and Paul Fenton seems hell-bent on making sure there’s at least one Chiarelli-esque incompetent GM in the NHL at all times.

    I can see there being the potential for the deal being made, and it might be the first time in a long time the Oilers have acquired a player posed for a bounce back season.

    I’d be kicking the tires on him if I was Holland.

  9. OriginalPouzar says:

    Re-signing Starrett was a no-brainer – one of the top goalies in the AHL last year.

    Wasn’t sure if they’d re-sign Malone but absolutely fine with it given he is a huge piece of the Condors’ and their success is important. He simply cannot be on the NHL roster if the team is going to be a winning team – his skills simply don’t translate. He’s been passed as an NHL option by Joe G., Currie, P. Russell.

    As an aside, P. Russell is a Group VI UFA – hopefully they can get him under contract.

    No-brainer to get Rodrigue under his ELC – that will slide this year – hopefully he has a great start to the year and makes the World Juniors.

    ————————-

    Re-signing Jesse and JJ are no-brainers – both will be between $1M and $1.5M I’m sure and two fantastic bets for value contracts this coming year.

    I think there is a chance that Vesel is re-signed but unlikely. Larkin and Norell are clearly not to be re-signed.

    It would be great to get Hawkey under contract prior to August 15 although I’m not sure where the kids will play if he is signed (subject to injury). From accounts, we should not expect it – hopefully they can trade his rights and get back that draft pick they gave up to the Habs.

  10. Cahoon says:

    Jaxon,

    If the draft went that magical, you happily select Byram. The kid’s a beast, if there is a world where he somehow slides to us we should all be ecstatic!

  11. OriginalPouzar says:

    I like the Ennis thought – a nice cheap bet to provide a value contract and top 6 production – I throw Pirri in there as well.

    I worry about the Connolly signing if the term is too long.

    He’s gone one season over 27 points.

    He’s likely a good bet for 15 goals but who knows if he’s more than a 30 point guy.

    Is he Alex Chiasson X 2?

  12. OriginalPouzar says:

    While, eventually that 2RD spot needs to be filled (well, 1RD in actuality but lets not get greedy) and I’ve been adamant that a stop-gap is a priority, I’m starting to get comfortable with a disposition of Russell and filling the spot internally.

    As LT states, Nurse/Benning may have more legs than we realize and there are other internal options if that doesn’t work. Sekera up at 2RD or Sekera up at 2LD and one of the lefties moving over (not ideal but nor was Russell).

    If Benning can provide an adequate stop-gap for a year or so for prospect development, that would go along ways.

    I don’t think I forsee a Spurgeon, Barrie, etc. level acquisition.

  13. OriginalPouzar says:

    You nailed my AHL d-pairings except I have Samorukov in with Day.

    Young Willis disagrees with the pairings.

  14. OriginalPouzar says:

    I would love Taylor Hall back and would welcome him with wide open arms.

    The acquisition cost for a one-year rental would be too dear and signing him to his $10M X 7 (or 8 if we trade for him this off-season) retirement contract is something the organization should have zero interest in.

  15. Rondo says:

    Who would you choose from this group at # 8?

    Krebs, Broberg, Boldy or Podkolzin.

  16. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Lowetide: It’s a gamble,

    – Indeed it is a gamble: but if you get healthy D, the team will be very smart…

    – Punting Russell, a bona-fide D, the whole thing goes south in a hurry with 1 injury, but a healthy top-pair, and healthy Sek on 3rd pair, Nurse-Benning 2019 should = Nurse-Russell 2018

    – Plus your putting the two D who are coming up for renewals: you know to challenge them

    * and this “gamble” has been the same for the last few years: Sek’s injury and Klef’s + Larsson’s absence, has really hurt team development and planning and projecting. Maybe this year will be different. Who knows, but my bias is keep Russell because he’s bonafide, but its not optimal

  17. Jordan says:

    Okay I’m putting on my Oilers GM Cap and fixing this thing.

    The Oilers trade Milan Lucic and Jesse Puljujarvi to Columbus for Riley Nash and a 2021 4th Rd pick.

    The Oilers trade Kris Russell to the NY Rangers for forward prospect Ryan Gropp

    The Oilers trade Yamamoto, Jones and 2020 1st to New Jersey for Taylor Hall, who signs a 7.5M 8 year contract extension with the Oilers.

    The Oilers sign Jordan Eberle to a 4 year 4M contract.

    Projected Lineup:

    Drai – CMD – Kass (22.5M)
    Hall – RNH – Ebs (16M)
    Khaira – Nash – – Gagner (6.5M)
    Nygard – Cave – Currie (2.5M)

    Kelf – Lars (8M)
    Nurse – Benning (5M)
    Sekera – Persson/UFA (6.5M)

    Koskinen (4.5M)
    Elliot (2.5M)

    Total 74M (Plus buyouts, bonuses, etc).

    This is what balance looks like.

  18. ArmchairGM says:

    GMB3: I think he’s a great candidate for a bounce back season

    Zucker’s 2018-19 boxcars are almost identical to his career average production. What exactly is he “bouncing back” to?

  19. GMB3 says:

    ArmchairGM: Zucker’s 2018-19 boxcars are almost identicalto his career average production. What exactly is he “bouncing back” to?

    Thanks for reading the post😻

  20. Little Johnny Frostbite says:

    Morning everyone:

    I posted this on Sunday, and it didn’t garner a lot of attention, but damned if I abandon the one good idea I get for June!

    T-Shirts, Hats. Please. There are a lot of shills who fake rumours and sources to sell junk, but it’s quite different when it’s a quality site that we all want to support. I realize that there is a donate button, but as a suggestion, LT, I’d happily buy some LT merchandise…

    Apart from supporting the site, it might help me avoi…errr…identify some of the folks on here in public!

    Thoughts? I’m sure there are some aspiring graphic designers that would be willing to help out…

    Back to lurking now.

    A.

  21. Jaxon says:

    Rondo:
    Who would you choose from this group at # 8?

    Krebs, Broberg, Boldy or Podkolzin.

    I think I’d take Broberg. Podkolzin is intriguing. Maybe Podkolzin. I think I’d stay away from Boldy (zoomed?), and Krebs (not enough production even considering his team).

  22. Rube Foster says:

    Pescador: After studying each prospect realistically available between 5-15, my estimation is that these players will be available to the Oilers at #8:
    Boldy
    Caufield
    Krebs
    Podkolzin
    Newhook
    Kaliyev
    Broberg
    Lavoie
    My personal preference would be for the Oilers to trade down about 4-5 spots & collect an NHL winger or an additional draft pick to then trade for an NHL winger or 3C as part of a package
    Then I would draft Lavoie or Kaliyev

    Agreed!

    If Cozens and Dach are gone by the 8th Hole lets trade down and target Lavoie or Kaliyev. I can’t see Lavoie getting past Montreal at 15. If the big centres are gone, could we move the 8th and our fourth round pick to Minnesota for the 12th and Nico Sturm?

    LT, I hope we aim higher than Glendening for our 3C, he looks to me like a 30 year old Colby Cave and we already have a Colby Cave. I will say that your projected line-up for the Condors looks like a juggernaut – love that fourth line kid line!

  23. ArmchairGM says:

    Rondo:
    Who would you choose from this group at # 8?

    Krebs, Broberg, Boldy or Podkolzin.

    Broberg or Podkolzin, probably the latter.

  24. ArmchairGM says:

    GMB3: Thanks for reading the post

    You don’t have to be an ass, just answer the question. He’s a career 42 point player (or thereabouts), what exactly are you expecting from him?

  25. godot10 says:

    Rondo:
    Who would you choose from this group at # 8?

    Krebs, Broberg, Boldy or Podkolzin.

    Krebs

  26. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I would love Taylor Hall back and would welcome him with wide open arms.

    The acquisition cost for a one-year rental would be too dear and signing him to his $10M X 7 (or 8 if we trade for him this off-season) retirement contract is something the organization should have zero interest in.

    Elite players tend to be elite long. You can sign him for 7 years and he would only be 35 at the end of it. These are the only players worth UFA, because they are impossible to get otherwise.
    The Stone acquisition single handedly made the Golden Knights a playoff team for the next many years to come.
    The cap rises so the contract becomes cheaper as they age as well. Remember when Nuge and Eberle signed their 6mil cap hit contracts. That was a top 5 winger and almost top 10 cap hit in the league. Now you may be able to get Brett Connolly for that

  27. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    leadfarmer,

    Agreed across the board.

    The only negative on Hall is the injury history, its real and despite not being repeat on the same joints (might be on the knee) it can’t be ignored.

    I’d still take the plunge though. The top two lines would be Murderers Row, add in the theoretical progression of a couple of these prospect wingers and well… its fun to dream

  28. nvan97 says:

    Little Johnny Frostbite:
    Morning everyone:

    I posted this on Sunday, and it didn’t garner a lot of attention, but damned if I abandon the one good idea I get for June!

    T-Shirts, Hats.Please.There are a lot of shills who fake rumours and sources to sell junk, but it’s quite different when it’s a quality site that we all want to support.I realize that there is a donate button, but as a suggestion, LT, I’d happily buy some LT merchandise…

    Apart from supporting the site, it might help me avoi…errr…identify some of the folks on here in public!

    Thoughts?I’m sure there are some aspiring graphic designers that would be willing to help out…

    Back to lurking now.

    A.

    Obviously LT might chime in but I wonder if there’s a conflict of interest with The Athletic in doing something like that. Not sure how much latitude he gets. I would probably buy a hat or a tshirt if it was available.

  29. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Hughes, Kaakko, Byram, Turcotte, Cozens, Dach, Zegras.

    I’d take whoever drops from that top 7. Podkolzin if not.

  30. GMB3 says:

    ArmchairGM: You don’t have to be an ass, just answer the question.He’s a career 42 point player (or thereabouts), what exactly are you expecting from him?

    Showing you the same amount of respect you showed me. Remember learning the golden rule in grade school?

    Are you aware of how p/60 rates work?

    3 out of his last 5 years he scored at over a 2.0 p/60 at 5v5, with 15/16 and 18/19 being much lower. He has significantly better linemates from 16/17 on, this giving me the impression that this year may be the outlier.

    Admittedly, not a perfect science, and I am on my mobile and at work, so I’m unable to dig in deeper at the moment.

    I’ll add this again from yesterday. Holland’s intends to compete without mortgaging the future. It’s out in the media that he’s looking to deal Zucker. He has a history of being a positive player relative to his team in both corsi and fenwick, he’s a good skater. His numbers this past season were perhaps a little unlucky, at least relative to the last two seasons.

    Let’s say he’s comfortable a 40+ point player based on his last couple of seasons, and was playing on a Minnesota team that isn’t exactly filled with a ton of offensive talent. Edmonton has little for secondary scoring, Zucker would be a massive improvement over forwards 4-12 imo. He has a reputation for strong two way play.

    Quoting Dom’s article one more time, “With Zucker on the ice, the Wild create more dangerous opportunities than the Golden Knights with Marchessault or the Penguins with Kessel, but the even larger difference is in their own zone. Zucker’s play defensively is a net positive while the latter two seem to bleed chances, specifically Kessel who has very much earned his reputation as a weak defensive player over the last few seasons”

    As an answer to your question, I’d reasonably expect him to be around a 50 point player, possibly more, and that would be a huge add for this team. And he’s rumoured to be available. This isn’t hard.

  31. David says:

    Jaxon,

    Last year I wanted Hughes->Bouchard->Smith

    I “knew” Hughes would be gone, and was pretty confident Bouchard would be gone but he fell to us.

    Byram is in the Hughes category. He ain’t gonna be there. Cozens is in the Bouchard category. Don’t plan on him being there but he just might.

    I’m totally with you on Caufield and Kaliyev. I think Caufield will be gone and the Oilers will pass on Kaliyev.

  32. Jordan says:

    GMB3,

    ArmchairGM,

    Had Zucker in my Regular Season Pool this year, so paid a lot more attention to him than I have in previous years. He’s a slightly younger Eberle

    Zucker is a legit top 6 winger. He’s not a burner, and generates a lot of points from the PP. One of his best talents as a scorer is changing the angle of his shot, like Eberle. He’s not 6′ tall or 200lbs, so can struggle in puckbattles on the boards, but his strength is in shooting and play-making in the offensive zone.

    He’s over-paid for his production in Minnesota, and his supporting cast isn’t good enough to boost his production.

    He’s the kind of guy I’d target for a Russell trade, if I wanted to trade for a winger without giving up extra assets. Useful, but slightly over-paid.

  33. Oilman99 says:

    LT it seems to me you are gifting Nygard a spot on the big team when he hasn’t ever played on the NHL sized ice surface. Benson’s hockey smarts suggest he has the inside track for a top six spot.

  34. GMB3 says:

    Jordan:
    GMB3,

    ArmchairGM,

    Had Zucker in my Regular Season Pool this year, so paid a lot more attention to him than I have in previous years.He’s a slightly younger Eberle

    Zucker is a legit top 6 winger.He’s not a burner, and generates a lot of points from the PP.One of his best talents as a scorer is changing the angle of his shot, like Eberle. He’s not 6′ tall or 200lbs, so can struggle in puckbattles on the boards, but his strength is in shooting and play-making in the offensive zone.

    He’s over-paid for his production in Minnesota, and his supporting cast isn’t good enough to boost his production.

    He’s the kind of guy I’d target for a Russell trade, if I wanted to trade for a winger without giving up extra assets.Useful, but slightly over-paid.

    He’s faster than Eberle from my viewings, and a better two way guy.

  35. LadiesloveSmid says:

    I expected Pulju/Yamamoto would be NHL contributors last season, and was wrong. I suspect they will be this season, ready to be wrong again.

    Benson & Marody have introduced themselves as legit prospects.

    Friedman saying if Kadri is available, all of Western Canada will be interested. Wonder what the price tag would be, he would be an awesome fit for JP I think. Though JP might be the guy who’d go the other way.

  36. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Benson-Kadri-Marody/Yamo 3rd line?

  37. pts2pndr says:

    ArmchairGM: Broberg or Podkolzin, probably the latter.

    I would take Broberg and leave him Sweden for one to two years and then AHL for a year. Taking the player that is least risk and very high ceiling would appear to be the right call given the team as it stands now. In three to four years we will likely have a D position needing filling with a value contract.

  38. Munny says:

    Jaxon,

    I’ve watched quite a few USNDTP highlights of Boldy. He looks like the play driver on his line. Has the vision to make the right pass at the right time, goes to the net, has an accurate shot and a good one-timer.

    None of the highlights were with Hughes, so I’m guessing they didn’t get a lot of playing time together. In fact it looks like Boldy was the driver of the 2nd line. So his numbers come with the caveat of poorer QUALCOMP. Still the same is often true of CHL eligibles.

    His linemates appeared to be Caufield & Zegras for a good portion of the season, then Caulfield being such a good triggerman, got promoted to the Hughes line. He was replaced by Rolston and it appears Zegras remained on the line.

    Accordingly I have Boldy rated higher than Zegras, but not as high as Turcotte. Caufield is a great shooter and knows how to find the soft spots, but you wonder at his size whether he will ever win a board battle in the Bigs or defend in his own zone.

    Small guys ALWAYS drop. Too much risk for the reward. I think he will still be there at 8 for sure and likely Boldy too. I think I’d take Boldy because he can pass, shoot, skate, defend, has size and can carry the puck through the neutral zone. More tools.

    I take Cozens over both, but I don’t think he will be there at 8 unless Broberg goes in the top 7.

  39. Death By Misadventure says:

    Rondo:
    Who would you choose from this group at # 8?

    Krebs, Broberg, Boldy or Podkolzin.

    Oh Lordy that’s tough. Probably Broberg. Least amount of risk in my mind.

  40. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Zucker is 25th in goals and 44th in points at 5v5 from 2016-19.

    Play driving top-line winger. He’s not Hall, but his contract is great. His 5v5 on-ice SH% plummeted this past season, which is why Paul ‘Chiarelli’ Fenton is ready to dump him.

    Again, I don’t think flipping RNH for him would turn the dial much but that’s where I see his value at. If EDM can make salaries work, I’d be in on him big time.

  41. Pescador says:

    Little Johnny Frostbite:
    Morning everyone:

    I posted this on Sunday, and it didn’t garner a lot of attention, but damned if I abandon the one good idea I get for June!

    T-Shirts, Hats.Please.There are a lot of shills who fake rumours and sources to sell junk, but it’s quite different when it’s a quality site that we all want to support.I realize that there is a donate button, but as a suggestion, LT, I’d happily buy some LT merchandise…

    Apart from supporting the site, it might help me avoi…errr…identify some of the folks on here in public!

    Thoughts?I’m sure there are some aspiring graphic designers that would be willing to help out…

    Back to lurking now.

    A.

    Lowdown & Dirty Red
    It’s a fruity Malbec,
    pairs well with chips & cheese burgers.
    And the best part is it comes in a box

  42. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Little Johnny Frostbite,

    – Yeah I’d buy some cool LT swag: what is his logo?

  43. Death By Misadventure says:

    GMB3: Showing you the same amount of respect you showed me. Remember learning the golden rule in grade school?

    Are you aware of how p/60 rates work?

    3 out of his last 5 years he scored at over a 2.0 p/60 at 5v5, with 15/16 and 18/19 being much lower. He has significantly better linemates from 16/17 on, this giving me the impression that this year may be the outlier.

    Admittedly, not a perfect science, and I am on my mobile and at work, so I’m unable to dig in deeper at the moment.

    I’ll add this again from yesterday. Holland’s intends to compete without mortgaging the future. It’s out in the media that he’s looking to deal Zucker. He has a history of being a positive player relative to his team in both corsi and fenwick, he’s a good skater. His numbers this past season were perhaps a little unlucky, at least relative to the last two seasons.

    Let’s say he’s comfortable a 40+ point player based on his last couple of seasons, and was playing on a Minnesota team that isn’t exactly filled with a ton of offensive talent. Edmonton has little for secondary scoring, Zucker would be a massive improvement over forwards 4-12 imo. He has a reputation for strong two way play.

    Quoting Dom’s article one more time, “With Zucker on the ice, the Wild create more dangerous opportunities than the Golden Knights with Marchessault or the Penguins with Kessel, but the even larger difference is in their own zone. Zucker’s play defensively is a net positive while the latter two seem to bleed chances, specifically Kessel who has very much earned his reputation as a weak defensive player over the last few seasons”

    As an answer to your question, I’d reasonably expect him to be around a 50 point player, possibly more, and that would be a huge add for this team. And he’s rumoured to be available. This isn’t hard.

    +1

    I like it.

    Age, cap hit, potential to outperform trade cost since likely buying low etc.

    Worth the risk.

    Also assuming would be a welcome addition by Nuge. Keeping Nuge happy is important.

  44. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: It’s a gamble, but Lagesson, Bouchard, Bear are matriculating. I can’t see a reasonable RH target who would be available for the period between now and Bouchard’s hopefully being ready. Benning is a solid, if imperfect, option.

    I agree with this. Stralman signing for two years is fantasy. Acquiring the one year left for Spurgeon or Faulk would be too expensive given no desire to re-sign (Spurgeon will be 31 a month after he plays his first game of the new contract. Collin Miller isn’t a legit top 4 guy at evens.

    The stop gap will need to come internally – maybe see what Tim Heed can do…

  45. OriginalPouzar says:

    HT Joe:
    With all of the verbal about Hall and the Oilers, is the question if Hall will be traded to the Oilers in the 2019-2020 season (in which case he has no say in the matter)?

    Because if the verbal is regarding Hall signing here willingly once he becomes UFA, I just don’t see it.After the way the media piled on him, management didn’t defend him, and a large portion of the fans (or at least a large portion of the vocal fans) spewed personal attacks regarding his effort or character, why would Taylor Hall willingly return to this fish bowl?

    I will never be able to understand his situation, but I just expect that he would rather sign with Calgary as a big FU, instead of returning to the team that traded him away before they had a single season of Hall and McDavid healthy together.

    I believe the only “verbal” right now about Hall to Edmonton is among fans like us and bloggers – there is nothing to it at this point as far as I know.

    Also, I would love if Hall signed his $10M X 8 retirement contract with the flames. They should definitely pay him for his 30s.

  46. OriginalPouzar says:

    GMB3: Bump from the last thread as I was travelling last night and just got to your response this morning.

    If you don’t mind me asking, what is it about Zucker you don’t find enamouring? I think he’s a great candidate for a bounce back season, and Don Lucyschen (I have no idea how to spell his last name tbch) wrote an excellent article on the athletic outlining why.

    Some key takeaways from that article

    His 5v5 scoring last three seasons: 2.33p/60, 2.10 p/60, 1.33 p/60.
    He saw a dip in shooting percentage, falling to 6.9% (nice), down from 11.7%. The Wild only scored on 5.7% of shots with him on the ice, down from 9.5%.

    To quote Dom, “With Zucker on the ice, the Wild create more dangerous opportunities than the Golden Knights with Marchessault or the Penguins with Kessel, but the even larger difference is in their own zone. Zucker’s play defensively is a net positive while the latter two seem to bleed chances, specifically Kessel who has very much earned his reputation as a weak defensive player over the last few seasons.”

    A defensible responsible forward with speed who appears to be due for a bounce back offensively after posting *only* 42 points, which would have placed him fourth in scoring in Edmonton. He’s only 27, would seriously alter the dynamic in the Oilers top 6, and Paul Fenton seems hell-bent on making sure there’s at least one Chiarelli-esque incompetent GM in the NHL at all times.

    I can see there being the potential for the deal being made, and it might be the first time in a long time the Oilers have acquired a player posed for a bounce back season.

    I’d be kicking the tires on him if I was Holland.

    My issue may be not knowing enough about him so thank you for that information. Those scoring rates (except last year) do look dandy – at the same time, he’s only had one season of plus production and, other than that season, he’s been a 40-50 point guy.

  47. Halfwise says:

    Pescador: Lowdown & Dirty Red
    It’s a fruity Malbec,
    pairs well with chips & cheese burgers.
    And the best part is it comes in a box

    As a semi-retiree I have been carefully examining boxed wines.

    I’m quite fond of Cardboardeaux, Cubernet Sauvignon and Malbox.

    I have no information regarding the claim that they are good for six weeks after opening.

  48. Louis Levasseur says:

    Completely off topic, but I can’t stand the embellishment that seems to be part of the game. One thing I don’t think I have ever seen is a ref just give an embellishment (unsportsmanlike penalty). It’s always coupled with the original infraction, such as tripping. Why is that? There must be times when a player embellishes without the original infraction.

    One thing I would consider doing, is when you have a situation where there is a penalty by one team and the other team’s player embellishes, just call the embellishment and waive off the original penalty. You see this happen in scrums in front of the net. Often times the ref will just call a roughing penalty on one team. It’s thought to make teams consider whether they want to be singled out and thereby cutting down on the after whistle stuff.

  49. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer: Elite players tend to be elite long.You can sign him for 7 years and he would only be 35 at the end of it.These are the only players worth UFA, because they are impossible to get otherwise.
    The Stone acquisition single handedly made the Golden Knights a playoff team for the next many years to come.
    The cap rises so the contract becomes cheaper as they age as well.Remember when Nuge and Eberle signed their 6mil cap hit contracts.That was a top 5 winger and almost top 10 cap hit in the league.Now you may be able to get Brett Connolly for that

    What about elite players that have never been able to stay healthy for consecutive seasons and have suffered numerous significant injuries before 30? Do you not see a risk signing this player to his retirement contract? Even if he did stay relatively healthy for the duration of the contact, which he may, yes, he will be an impact player but he will still be past his offensive prime. Keep the money (and asset currency) and save it for a younger impact player.

    I already responded to your post re: not being able to acquire these players which isn’t really true. It happens: Hall, Seguin to Boston, Seguin to Dallas, Panarin, Jumbo Joe, etc.

  50. leadfarmer says:

    GMB3: He’s faster than Eberle from my viewings, and a better two way guy.

    Yes. He would be a great add for our 2nd line. Skates well. Very responsible in each end. Like a Stone lite.
    I would be very happy if we reversed Chia’d a deal to get him

  51. Munny says:

    Halfwise: As a semi-retiree I have been carefully examining boxed wines.

    I’m quite fond of Cardboardeaux, Cubernet Sauvignon and Malbox.

    I have no information regarding the claim that they are good for six weeks after opening.

    This is awesome.

    *slow Winers clap*

  52. texmex says:

    From an article on TSN:

    TORONTO — Connor McDavid didn’t want to answer questions about his knee. The brace hugging his left leg and an accompanying limp said enough.

  53. Cahoon says:

    Little Johnny Frostbite,

    If there was a shirt with one of LT’s catchphrases and then the orange logo top left of the website that would be cool. Like the Lowetide logo on the front and then on the top back it says ‘We wait ‘ or something like that. I would be into that

  54. Halfwise says:

    Munny: *slow Winers clap*

    Heh

  55. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar: What about elite players that have never been able to stay healthy for consecutive seasons and have suffered numerous significant injuries before 30?Do you not see a risk signing this player to his retirement contract?Even if he did stay relatively healthy for the duration of the contact, which he may, yes, he will be an impact player but he will still be past his offensive prime. Keep the money (and asset currency) and save it for a younger impact player.

    I already responded to your post re: not being able to acquire these players which isn’t really true.It happens: Hall, Seguin to Boston, Seguin to Dallas, Panarin, Jumbo Joe, etc.

    In his last 7 season Taylor Hall has missed more than 10 games twice. His injury issues are overblown.You make him sound like he is Marion Gaborik.
    As far as your second point goes you dont get those players unless 1) You get to trade with Peter Chiarelli which he does not have a job, 2) You live in New York, California or Florida. Edmonton is not a prime destination for these guys. SO YES IT is true. It is very hard to acquire these players and almost impossible if you live in the tundra
    UFA is a complete waste of money 90% of the time but these are the players you use that money on.

  56. ArmchairGM says:

    Jordan: He’s the kind of guy I’d target for a Russell trade, if I wanted to trade for a winger without giving up extra assets. Useful, but slightly over-paid.

    This is my feeling too. I certainly wouldn’t mind seeing him in an Oilers sweater, but only if Holland can engineer a Rask-Niederreiter type deal.

  57. YKOil says:

    Rondo:
    Who would you choose from this group at # 8?

    Krebs, Broberg, Boldy or Podkolzin.

    Krebs

  58. Jaxon says:

    Munny:
    Jaxon,

    I’ve watched quite a few USNDTP highlights of Boldy.He looks like the play driver on his line.Has the vision to make the right pass at the right time, goes to the net, has an accurate shot and a good one-timer.

    None of the highlights were with Hughes, so I’m guessing they didn’t get a lot of playing time together. In fact it looks like Boldy was the driver of the 2nd line.So his numbers come with the caveat of poorer QUALCOMP.Still the same is often true of CHL eligibles.

    His linemates appeared to be Caufield & Zegras for a good portion of the season, then Caulfield being such a good triggerman, got promoted to the Hughes line. He was replaced by Rolston and it appears Zegras remained on the line.

    Accordingly I have Boldy rated higher than Zegras, but not as high as Turcotte.Caufield is a great shooter and knows how to find the soft spots, but you wonder at his size whether he will ever win a board battle in the Bigs or defend in his own zone.

    Small guys ALWAYS drop.Too much risk for the reward.I think he will still be there at 8 for sure and likely Boldy too.I think I’d take Boldy because he can pass, shoot, skate, defend, has size and can carry the puck through the neutral zone.More tools.

    I take Cozens over both, but I don’t think he will be there at 8 unless Broberg goes in the top 7.

    When Turcotte was on the team, what were the lines? I was under the impression that Caufield and played with Hughes and often Zegras. Boldy with who mostly? He had a fair amount with Zegras when Zegras wasn’t with Hughes and Caufield. From the Turcotte footage I’ve seen he never seemed to have consistent linemates and rarely with the top players, yet he scored at an astronomical pace (I’massuming against lesser competition though).

  59. Material Elvis says:

    Munny:
    Jaxon,

    I’ve watched quite a few USNDTP highlights of Boldy.He looks like the play driver on his line.Has the vision to make the right pass at the right time, goes to the net, has an accurate shot and a good one-timer.

    None of the highlights were with Hughes, so I’m guessing they didn’t get a lot of playing time together. In fact it looks like Boldy was the driver of the 2nd line.So his numbers come with the caveat of poorer QUALCOMP.Still the same is often true of CHL eligibles.

    His linemates appeared to be Caufield & Zegras for a good portion of the season, then Caulfield being such a good triggerman, got promoted to the Hughes line. He was replaced by Rolston and it appears Zegras remained on the line.

    Accordingly I have Boldy rated higher than Zegras, but not as high as Turcotte.Caufield is a great shooter and knows how to find the soft spots, but you wonder at his size whether he will ever win a board battle in the Bigs or defend in his own zone.

    Small guys ALWAYS drop.Too much risk for the reward.I think he will still be there at 8 for sure and likely Boldy too.I think I’d take Boldy because he can pass, shoot, skate, defend, has size and can carry the puck through the neutral zone.More tools.

    I take Cozens over both, but I don’t think he will be there at 8 unless Broberg goes in the top 7.

    Actually, Boldy mostly played with Hughes and Caufield. Why? Because he had the ability to keep up to those guys and make plays. I think he’s a solid future top 6 LW. I’d have no problem with him at #8 — he just isn’t quite as dynamic as the other USNDTP guys. I’d file him and Broberg as safe, low risk picks with less upside.

  60. OilSlickster says:

    Munny,

    I agree with this 100%. My choice is Boldy at 8. Especially over Caufield. Coincidentally Hughes numbers got better when Boldy was his linemate. Which wasnt alot. But it has been noted in articles I’ve read

  61. Material Elvis says:

    Rondo:
    Who would you choose from this group at # 8?

    Krebs, Broberg, Boldy or Podkolzin.

    In order: Krebs, Boldy, Broberg, Podkolzin (talented but Oilers don’t develop Russians very well).

  62. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer: In his last 7 season Taylor Hall has missed more than 10 games twice.His injury issues are overblown.You make him sound like he is Marion Gaborik.
    As far as your second point goes you dont get those players unless 1)You get to trade with Peter Chiarelli which he does not have a job, 2)You live in New York, California or Florida.Edmonton is not a prime destination for these guys.SO YES IT is true.It is very hard to acquire these players and almost impossible if you live in the tundra
    UFA is a complete waste of money 90% of the time but these are the players you use that money on.

    You say these players can’t be acquired, I show that they do get traded – GMs around the league are consistently making wild head-scratching decisions – its not just Chiarelli.

    Just like small market teams can’t acquire star players and top pairing d-men don’t get traded? Pronger to Edmonton, Subban to Nashville, Seth Jones to Columbus (he was right on the cusp).

    Anyways, it doesn’t matter. My position won’t change that I want to pay big money for players in their 20s, not their 30s. No matter what, their best offensive days will almost assuredly be behind them. Even if not, it will cause problems with the cap (i.e. Tavares).

    My opinion.

  63. Jaxon says:

    Munny:
    Jaxon,

    I’ve watched quite a few USNDTP highlights of Boldy.He looks like the play driver on his line.Has the vision to make the right pass at the right time, goes to the net, has an accurate shot and a good one-timer.

    None of the highlights were with Hughes, so I’m guessing they didn’t get a lot of playing time together. In fact it looks like Boldy was the driver of the 2nd line.So his numbers come with the caveat of poorer QUALCOMP.Still the same is often true of CHL eligible.

    His wingers appeared to be Caufield & Zegras for a good portion of the season, then Caulfield being such a good triggerman, got promoted to the Hughes line. He was replaced by Rolston and it appears Zegras remained on the line.

    Accordingly I have Boldy rated higher than Zegras, but not as high as Turcotte.Caufield is a great shooter and knows how to find the soft spots, but you wonder at his size whether he will ever win a board battle in the Bigs or defend in his own zone.

    Small guys ALWAYS drop.Too much risk for the reward.I think he will still be there at 8 for sure and likely Boldy too.I think I’d take Boldy because he can pass, shoot, skate, defend, has size and can carry the puck through the neutral zone.More tools.

    I take Cozens over both, but I don’t think he will be there at 8 unless Broberg goes in the top 7.

    Great info. If we end up with Boldy, If be pleased if my worries are wrong and you are right.

  64. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    A couple of points

    The comparison to Tavares is tempting but wrong IMO. Tavares causes problems with the cap because the deal was signed before all of Nylander, Marner and Matthews had been paid AND the holes on Toronto’s roster are on the backend and not at forward. Tavares’ contract is a problem because his contract number is incredibly heavy despite the evidence being mixed that he is in fact the best player on the team. That is why Tavares’ contract is a problem.

    This isn’t the case with the Oilers. The upper bound is established (McDavid) and the secondary boundary (Draisaitl) isn’t crazy either at $8.5. Can you get Hall at that price point or below? Yup, I’m willing to wager you can. Can you find a way to fit Hall in at that while getting Nurse locked up? Yup you can if shed some of the older guys. There are ways around this cap trouble, especially in a year when the Oilers have $26 million and change to play with.

    Hall fills a crucial need on the Oilers, its adding to a position of weakness, one where the prospect depth is mighty thin and at this point should still be considered magic beans. This is adding a Hart level player, in their prime to play 3rd in the batting order… I don’t give a crap if his 33 year old year is tough if it means Cups between now and then.

    If you can grab Hall without trading away one of Klef, Nurse, Larsson, Bouchard, Drai or Nuge (no need to mention CmD) you do it because it instantly makes your team better AND pushes whatever forward magic beans you still have down the depth chart.

  65. Material Elvis says:

    Myrtle told Stauffer yesterday that the Leafs would like to get Marner signed at $9-9.5M. Fat chance if his agent is good — they have potential offer sheet leverage. He also figured that they would be able to keep all of their forwards and look to add a guy who can play on the right side top pairing. It all seems so delusional, even if they can unload Marleau and Zeitsev.

  66. Victoria Oil says:

    Jaxon:
    These are the players I’m hoping squeak into the top 7 picks from 3 to 7. How many of these 5 players do you think might get picked from 3 to 7? Listed with highest rank of 18 rankings and lowest.
    Player–High–Low
    Dach–3–15
    Podkolzin-3–17
    Zegras–4–21
    Krebs–5–17
    Boldy–6–17
    I think there is a decent chance at least two of these players gets picked higher than 8th, maybe more. All we need is 3 to get picked and Edmonton could have one of Cozens, Byram, Turcotte, Kaliyev or Caufield. The problem is that Edmonton, too, might pick one of Dach, Podkolzin, Zegras, Krebs or Boldy. As many of you know, I put a lot of stock in 5v5 Primary Points / 60 Adjusted to Age and League and Era, possibly to my detriment. I just don’t see enough production from Dach or Krebs to warrant a high pick over other elite producers like Turcotte, Cozens, Caufield, & Kaliyev. and as mentioned in many posts, I’m just not sure about Zegras and Boldy. There is bound to be someone being zoomed out of Hughes, Caufield, Turcotte, Zegras and Boldy and I really don’t think it’s the first 3. That program really messes with the numbers.

    These players are very unlikely to get picked higher than 8th but stranger things have happened. In fact, stranger things happen almost every year.
    Player–High–Low
    Broberg–5–33
    Newhook–7–27
    Suzuki–8–28
    York–9–22
    Harley–10–35
    Seider–11–35
    Heinola–12–41
    One of Broberg, York, Harley, Seider, or Heinola might sneek in as the 2nd D in the draft if a team misses out on Byram. I know Seider really impressed at the U18s and the combine, so his stock may be rising. Maybe Edmonton will be considering him. Might be a great teammate for Draisaitl.

    The more of these players that get in the better the chance that Edmonton will be choosing from:
    Cozens–3–9
    Byram–3–10
    Turcotte–3–11
    Kaliyev–3–17
    Caufield–5–30

    It won’t, but IF the draft unfolded:
    Kakko
    Hughes
    Dach
    Podkolzin
    Zegras
    Krebs
    Boldy
    Who would you pick at #8?

    Stranger things, my friends… stranger things.

    Best case for Edmonton as there is a slim to nil chance that Cozens, Turcotte and Byram don’t go in the top 7?
    Kakko
    Hughes
    Turcotte
    Byram
    Cozens
    Dach
    Zegras
    Krebs
    As I think Dach, Krebs and Zegras would be the most tempting for Edmonton and thus lessen the chances of picking the goal scoring machines Kaliyev or Caufield.

    Who would they pick from
    Kaliyev (scored at pace with greats like Tavares (9.25 months older), Stamkos (4.5 months older), Skinner (1.25 months older) and Debrincat (6.25 months older)
    Caufield (best goal/gp scorer in the history of the USNTDP with 72G in 64GP. Next best is Kessel with 41G in 41 GP)
    Podkolzin (too many unknowns?)
    Boldy (the least wanted of the top 5 USNTDP players)

    I think a pure goal scorer is what Edmonton needs most, so I hope Caufield and Kaliyev are their best options at #8. Although, Draisaitl has proven to be one of the best goal scorers in the NHL, he is still a great setup man. McDavid can do anything. Nuge is okay but still not considered a sniper. The upcoming crop is largely setup guys like Benson, Yamamoto, Puljujarvi (debatable). Maksimov has shown promise at the junior level but we still don’t know how much of that will come with him. Putting Kaliyev or Caufield on McDavid’s or Draisaitl’s wing in the future might unlock some crazy production and divide up the scoring between the top two lines a bit more. Fingers crossed.

    Excellent post. I don’t think we have a shot at Byram or Turcotte, but I’d be happy with one of Cozens, Kaliyiev or Caulfield and I think there’s an excellent chance that at least one of these three is available at #8.

    I just hope the Oilers don’t go off the board and pick a Riley Nash (a la 2007).

    Math matters.

  67. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar: You say these players can’t be acquired, I show that they do get traded – GMs around the league are consistently making wild head-scratching decisions – its not just Chiarelli.

    Just like small market teams can’t acquire star players and top pairing d-men don’t get traded? Pronger to Edmonton, Subban to Nashville, Seth Jones to Columbus (he was right on the cusp).

    Anyways, it doesn’t matter.My position won’t change that I want to pay big money for players in their 20s, not their 30s.No matter what, their best offensive days will almost assuredly be behind them. Even if not, it will cause problems with the cap (i.e. Tavares).

    My opinion.

    Seth Jones was not right on the cusp. Oh how great hindsight is. I was the only one on here who thought he was right on the cusp. Everyone thought he was a sheltered D although young and promising. There were people on here that wouldnt have traded Nuge for him. Nashville was a D men factory and was able to trade good D to fix holes elsewhere (althought they didnt do it well) So Subban who was traded for another top pairing defensemen and one of the greatest trades of all time in Pronger.
    Do this for me. Add up the few trades you found and divide them by the number of years over how many of those trades you found and then divide them by the number of teams in the league. What do you get?
    YOU GET IT is incredibly hard to get these players and most teams have not been able to trade for a franchise player

  68. leadfarmer says:

    Sekera 5.5 mil per
    Lucic 6 mil per
    Russell 4 mil per
    Koskinen 4.5 mil per
    These are not the players you shop for in UFA

    Hall Panarin Stone are the players you spend those UFA money on. Everyone else find them elsewhere , not UFA

  69. OriginalPouzar says:

    You were the only one? Seriously you think that.

    I was highly confident in his potential and becoming a high end 1RD very quickly.

    I never thought Nuge was nearly enough for Jones.

  70. GMB3 says:

    OriginalPouzar: My issue may be not knowing enough about him so thank you for that information.Those scoring rates (except last year) do look dandy – at the same time, he’s only had one season of plus production and, other than that season, he’s been a 40-50 point guy.

    That is fair, but he’s scored 20 even strength goals a couple times in his career and was a bit of a late bloomer to say. He also has played on a team that hasn’t been known for their offense really.

    Edmonton has a few guys with plus point production. Filling out the roster with 45 point, two-way players would be ideal, imo.

    He also hasn’t had a ton of poweplay time over his career, not that I think he would really get a lot in Edmonton. We need more guys who produce at 5v5. I will admit I’m not sure how he is on the penalty kill or how much he played there in Minnesota.

  71. GMB3 says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Zucker is 25th in goals and 44th in points at 5v5 from 2016-19.

    Play driving top-line winger. He’s not Hall, but his contract is great. His 5v5 on-ice SH% plummeted this past season, which is why Paul ‘Chiarelli’ Fenton is ready to dump him.

    Again, I don’t think flipping RNH for him would turn the dial much but that’s where I see his value at. If EDM can make salaries work, I’d be in on him big time.

    I didn’t know his 5v5 production was that strong in comparison to the rest of the league. How does Fenton look at that kind of production and think “trading this guy is what our team needs to turn a corner”

    I was never thinking trade Nuge for him, but if a package could be worked out around a pick, a prospect, and a lower end roster player I would be all for it.

    I think his age at 27 would be a great fit as well. Edmonton hasn’t had enough talented players in the 25-30 range. They’ve been clustered under 25 and then a bunch of guys on their way out of the league.

  72. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    If you thought that I dont see any evidence of it. Looking back there were more people liking Jones than I remember but there was definitely people that did not want to pay for him

    KINGER_OIL says:
    January 6, 2016 at 4:51 pm
    – I wouldn’t be happy with a RNH for Jones trade

    – Columbus does that trade as it makes them better in a few years, the Oil need impact today

    – I do like though that a comp has been set: 1C not fully developped = more toolsy younger D

    CRAZYCOACH says:
    January 6, 2016 at 5:27 pm
    GCW_69: Who are you trading for Jones? To me CBJ is taking a risk here. Right now they have given up a fair bit of value for potential.

    I agree. CBJ is taking a risk on Jones. The potential is there and maybe CBJ thinks he is being buried under the the pairing of Webber & Josi, but that is a gamble.

    OUP FASCIST says:
    January 6, 2016 at 5:28 pm
    Bank Shot: I also see this as a missed opportunity. RNH for Nurse would have solved a lot of this team’s problems IMO.

    So if that trade “would have solved a lot of this team’s problems” can I assume you see Jones as a first pairing defenseman right now?

    Even if I agree with this point (which I don’t) your 1-2 centres are now (sans Nuge) 20 and 18 years old respectively and Mark Letestu is your #3. That is NOT a sure fire playoff bound team NEXT year, IMO.

    Best case you solved one problem and created another. Worst case you have weakened this team and ensured another couple of years of no playoffs waiting for Jones to grow into his role. This team needs a bona fide 1st pairing RHD – preferably without sacrificing a very young but experienced 2-way centre.

    BLACKADDER says:
    January 6, 2016 at 7:12 pm
    Colimbus is a worse team after this trade – a legit #1 centre for a maybe/one day #1 defenceman. My guess is Johnson and Hartnell are next to go. This is the 1st step in the 2016 lose for Matthews stakes.

    And Nashville gained a #1 centre for their 5th defenceman. Pretty good day for them, I think.

  73. Little Johnny Frostbite says:

    Cahoon,

    I’m torn between “Eventually you develop a history” and hopefully something along the lines of “Got Wood(guy).” 😀

  74. GMB3 says:

    leadfarmer: Yes.He would be a great add for our 2nd line.Skates well.Very responsible in each end.Like a Stone lite.
    I would be very happy if we reversed Chia’d a deal to get him

    My feelings exactly. +1

  75. Material Elvis says:

    leadfarmer: Seth Jones was not right on the cusp.Oh how great hindsight is.I was the only one on here who thought he was right on the cusp.Everyone thought he was a sheltered D although young and promising.There were people on here that wouldnt have traded Nuge for him.Nashville was a D men factory and was able to trade good D to fix holes elsewhere (althought they didnt do it well)So Subban who was traded for another top pairing defensemen and one of the greatest trades of all time in Pronger.
    Do this for me.Add up the few trades you found and divide them by the number of years over how many of those trades you found and then divide them by the number of teams in the league.What do you get?
    YOU GET IT is incredibly hard to get these players and most teams have not been able to trade for a franchise player

    I recall it differently. Most of the posters were onside with trading RNH for Jones. However, as AsiaOil pointed out at the time, Nashville wanted more than RNH (his value around the league was perceived as lower than RyJo).

  76. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer,

    I don’t know what any of those quotes have to do with me.

    I was not as active on this site back then so may not have been commenting on this platform (but I think I was).

  77. rickithebear says:

    Russell an elite 0% corsi Dman.
    Suffers the most from rovers failing to restablish 2-1 structure that Conf final teams maintain.
    He had the best 3d situation comp numbers with Larsson.
    Minimal break down of 2-1 structure.

    Enough Old boys thinking!

    We no longer have the top 125 forward depth needed to outscore the repetative 2-1 Defensive (HD) zone break down caused by Nurse and Klefbom.

    Klefbom & Nurse generate pathetic opp def (HD) zone penetration on their 2-1 abandoning rovering.

  78. rickithebear says:

    The number of times people on here have wanted to trade conf/ cup core talent for
    Rovers who were the worst at re-establishing 2-1 Def (HD) zone structure.
    RNH for Jones was brutal.
    The constant Trade for Faulk & Reilly made me want to throw up.

    Multi variable analytics mantra
    You do not abandon forward NZ trap & 2-1 Def ( HD) zone structure.
    You want as many 0, 1, 2 GA allowed games as a team.

    Non roving nurse could be one of the best HD dmen in the game.

  79. Material Elvis says:

    Just had a long look at the Kaliyev highlight package. He scores a ton from the Draisaitl spot on the power play. He has a quick release half windup one-timer that looks very effective. He and Caufield play a very similar game although they are opposite shot and size (Caufield is a bit quicker, too). I think LT’s draft position is a lot closer to his actual value than the consensus rankings.

  80. Munny says:

    Material Elvis:
    Just had a long look at the Kaliyev highlight package.He scores a ton from the Draisaitl spot on the power play.He has a quick release half windup one-timer that looks very effective.He and Caufield play a very similar game although they are opposite shot and size (Caufield is a bit quicker, too).I think LT’s draft position is a lot closer to his actual value than the consensus rankings.

    I don’t think there’s any question about Kaliyev’s talent.

    He’s likely the 3rd most talented player available. With an outside chance of being better than that.

    The questions are about his battle level, motor, work ethic, character, perhaps coachability.

    He has so much potential though that if I were a GM thinking of taking him I would research the living f*ck out of his family, his associates, teachers, coaches etc and see how he does in the interview and EQ testing.

    I could be convinced on him. But going on the public scouting reports–which sadly is all we have–he really looks very boom or bust and those guys don’t typically go top 10.

    But if all that research works out in his favour, he would be a steal at 8.

    I won’t be upset if Holly takes him, because I think it would mean he would’ve done that deeper look into Kaliyev’s makeup.

  81. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – What is the best way to maximize how good team is the season after next, and subsequent years:

    This off-season:
    – Get rid of Lucic and retain half salary, plus other prospects
    – Get Rid of Russell for maybe just giving away for the cap
    – Get Rid of Benning for a non-elite winger
    – Resign Chiasson, Rattie, Pool
    – Use the savings to get the best RHD we can, and the best wingers to be max cap
    – Get an expensive 2G and hope voodoo works

    * Playoffs better chance for sure than last year

    Or next off-season:
    – Get rid of Lucic, after July 1 for far less than this year, and/or expansion
    – Get rid of Russell after he’s been passed by the D in the programme, for more than last year
    – Get rid of Benning after he’s been passed by the D (or he’s had a great year and is more valuable)
    – Figure out which of Kailer/Pool/Benson/Marody etc are slotted and where
    – Starrett has had some starts so we know if he ready
    – Use the extra cap (which is more by waiting a year for it to bleed) to help everything else

    * Delayed gratification for bigger house

    – That will be the “art” of the GM and what he wants to sell us: doing enough this off-season to be competitive, but not at the expense of a shittier house with a lower ceiling IMO

  82. rickithebear says:

    For years I could not explain the bone pain I had for 4-6 years leading up to being diagnosed with bone marrow Cancer.
    Until after diagnosis.

    It was like an absessed tooth pain thru my bones.

    I am finally comfortable with the zone structure description for trying to get & prevent Goals.

    Entry past the NZ blue line.
    Penetration of Def (HD) zone.
    Forcing outmanned situation in ops Def ( HD) zone.
    Rovers 3-1-1-1 structure make it easy for opposition to penetrate our blue and outman in our Def (HD area.

  83. LadiesloveSmid says:

    rickithebear,

    How is treatment going, Ricki?

    I’ve missed you

  84. jp says:

    For the past 2 seasons Sekera has been injured or highly sheltered on the third pair, so Benning has effectively been the Oilers 5D (or higher pending other injuries).

    His minutes paired with any of Nurse, Klefbom or Russell over the past 2 seasons would have been mostly as the 2nd pairing (who’d have been playing top 4 if Klefbom-Benning, for instance, were the third pair?).

    Benning overall: 2031min 50.0%CF 49.8%SF 53.5%GF 50.5%xGF

    with Klefbom: 576min 51.4%CF 51.6%SF 48.9%GF (23-24) 53.6%xGF
    with Nurse: 235min 52.8%CF 52.8%SF 66.7%GF (20-10) 53.1%xGF
    with Russell: 121min 46.1%CF 48.4%SF 60.0%GF (6-4) 49.9%xGF

    The above accounts for more than 45% of his 5v5 minutes (932 of his 2031) with really solid results – 49GF and 38GA (56.3%GF). As Woodguy noted there’s a bit of luck in these numbers, but he’s over 53% xGF% with Klefbom and Nurse, and effectively 50% with Russell.

    I know this doesn’t fit the eye test, but IMO Benning has already demonstrated he can play substantial 2nd pairing minutes effectively. I’d have no issue with making him the Oilers 2RD.

  85. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    I already responded to your post re: not being able to acquire these players which isn’t really true. It happens: Hall, Seguin to Boston, Seguin to Dallas, Panarin, Jumbo Joe, etc.

    Seguin wasn’t traded to BOS. TOR’s 1st was. That’s not the same.

    Hall was traded by Pete, so was Seguin.

    That leaves Panarin and Thornton.

    Thornton was traded in 2005, Panarin in 2017.

    So two elite level players were traded in 12 years in a 30 team league when Pete wasn’t involved.

    That’s evidence that it’s really, really rare, not that it happens often.

    Note: I’d include Stone in this, but it doesn’t change the conclusion.

  86. GMB3 says:

    Munny: I don’t think there’s any question about Kaliyev’s talent.

    He’s likely the 3rd most talented player available.With an outside chance of being better than that.

    The questions are about his battle level, motor, work ethic, character, perhaps coachability.

    He has so much potential though that if I were a GM thinking of taking him I would research the living f*ck out of his family, his associates, teachers, coaches etc and see how he does in the interview and EQ testing.

    I could be convinced on him.But going on the public scouting reports–which sadly is all we have–he really looks very boom or bust and those guys don’t typically go top 10.

    But if all that research works out in his favour, he would be a steal at 8.

    I won’t be upset if Holly takes him, because I think it would mean he would’ve done that deeper look into Kaliyev’s makeup.

    He’s this years Debrincat. Perceived flaws.

  87. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jp:
    For the past 2 seasons Sekera has been injured or highly sheltered on the third pair, so Benning has effectively been the Oilers 5D (or higher pending other injuries).

    His minutes paired with any of Nurse, Klefbom or Russell over the past 2 seasons would have been mostly as the 2nd pairing (who’d have been playing top 4 if Klefbom-Benning, for instance, were the third pair?).

    Benning overall: 2031min 50.0%CF 49.8%SF 53.5%GF 50.5%xGF

    with Klefbom: 576min 51.4%CF 51.6%SF 48.9%GF (23-24) 53.6%xGF
    with Nurse: 235min 52.8%CF 52.8%SF 66.7%GF (20-10) 53.1%xGF
    with Russell: 121min 46.1%CF 48.4%SF 60.0%GF (6-4) 49.9%xGF

    The above accounts for more than 45% of his 5v5 minutes (932 of his 2031) with really solid results – 49GF and 38GA (56.3%GF). As Woodguy noted there’s a bit of luck in these numbers, but he’s over 53% xGF% with Klefbom and Nurse, and effectively 50% with Russell.

    I know this doesn’t fit the eye test, but IMO Benning has already demonstrated he can play substantial 2nd pairing minutes effectively. I’d have no issue with making him the Oilers 2RD.

    Nice post.

  88. McSorley33 says:

    Exaclty how many LHD’s do some people want in the organization?

    Klef
    Nurse
    Jones
    Sekera

    Just a reminder, Philip Broberg is a LHD.

    The forward depth on the Edmonton Oilers is well established punch line.

    Draft accordingly…

  89. McSorley33 says:

    Rondo,

    Who would you choose from this group at # 8?

    Krebs, Broberg, Boldy or Podkolzin.
    *************************************************************
    Krebs was playing with anvils.

    If only we had some C’s he could play with ….oh wait.

    I take Krebs here and see what he can do with people that can play hockey.

  90. leadfarmer says:

    McSorley33:
    Exaclty how many LHD’sdo some people want in the organization?

    Klef
    Nurse
    Jones
    Sekera

    Just a reminder, Philip Broberg is a LHD.

    The forward depth on the Edmonton Oilers is well established punch line.

    Draft accordingly…

    Drafting for need is a recipe for disaster. Just a few years ago we had no D and had plenty of wingers. Now tables have turned. Jones has not played the left side in pro. Sekera will be long gone by the time Broberg is here. We are going to lose someone in the expansion draft
    Now Broberg may not be the best player available when we pick, but I have no problems drafting a LHD.
    Do not draft a player in the hopes of filling a current roster hole. Most likely you will need to fill that hole before that player is ready

  91. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    OriginalPouzar,

    I already responded to your post re: not being able to acquire these players which isn’t really true. It happens: Hall, Seguin to Boston, Seguin to Dallas, Panarin, Jumbo Joe, etc.

    Seguin wasn’t traded to BOS.TOR’s 1st was.That’s not the same.

    Hall was traded by Pete, so was Seguin.

    That leaves Panarin and Thornton.

    Thornton was traded in 2005, Panarin in 2017.

    So two elite level players were traded in 12 years in a 30 team league when Pete wasn’t involved.

    That’s evidence that it’s really, really rare, not that it happens often.

    Note: I’d include Stone in this, but it doesn’t change the conclusion.

    Thats what I was trying to tell him. If you include the D then at most you can count 6 franchise players (and two of them were trading for each other) that have been traded. (Panarin was not a franchise player at the time of the trade and many liked the Saad to Panarin switch)
    So over that 12 year time frame a team had a 1.6% rate of getting a franchise player per year at most.
    Meaning, Franchise players do not get traded

  92. godot10 says:

    GMB3: He’s this years Debrincat. Perceived flaws.

    Debrincat has a motor.

  93. godot10 says:

    McSorley33:
    Exaclty how many LHD’sdo some people want in the organization?

    Klef
    Nurse
    Jones
    Sekera

    Just a reminder, Philip Broberg is a LHD.

    The forward depth on the Edmonton Oilers is well established punch line.

    Draft accordingly…

    If the Oilers draft Broberg, he absolutely must be left in Sweden for one more season, and probably two.

    I like the overall quality of the forwards who will be available at 8 (so I’m not particularly on the #TeamBroberg), and as long as the Oilers pick the right one, #notCaufield #notZegras, I’d prefer Cozens, Dach, or Krebs over Broberg.

  94. pts2pndr says:

    rickithebear:
    The number of times people on here have wanted to trade conf/ cup core talent for
    Rovers who were the worst at re-establishing 2-1 Def (HD) zone structure.
    RNH for Jones was brutal.
    The constant Trade for Faulk & Reilly made me want to throw up.

    Multi variable analytics mantra
    You do not abandon forward NZ trap & 2-1 Def ( HD) zone structure.
    You want as many 0, 1, 2 GA allowed games as a team.

    Non roving nurse could be one of the best HD dmen in the game.

    Good to see you back Mr. Bear!

  95. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    – Other big time trades: Duchene, ROR, Kessel, Lucic (to L.A.), Spezza, Kane, RyJo, Kesler, St-Louis, Statsney, Patches, Domi, Skinner, Hossa: bunch more from last 5 years of elite players if we looked it up

    – Lots of moves and trades for elite players happen: Truth. A Hall trade today would be in this category:

  96. pts2pndr says:

    godot10: If the Oilers draft Broberg, he absolutely must be left in Sweden for one more season, and probably two.

    I like the overall quality of the forwards who will be available at 8 (so I’m not particularly on the #TeamBroberg), and as long as the Oilers pick the right one, #notCaufield #notZegras, I’d prefer Cozens, Dach, or Krebs over Broberg.

    Whats the down side on kaliyev. He seems to have the skill and size. Is his skating lacking?

  97. godot10 says:

    godot10: If the Oilers draft Broberg, he absolutely must be left in Sweden for one more season, and probably two.

    I like the overall quality of the forwards who will be available at 8 (so I’m not particularly on the #TeamBroberg), and as long as the Oilers pick the right one, #notCaufield #notZegras, I’d prefer Cozens, Dach, or Krebs over Broberg.

    Stauffer was suggesting bad stuff today when he was saying the Oilers could draft Broberg and bring him over to play in the AHL. That would be both dumb and bad at the same time.

    Let European draftees establish themselves in the European leagues first, before bringing them over.

    The AHL/Bakersfield is no place for 18-year old Europeans who are not coming from the CHL.

  98. godot10 says:

    pts2pndr: Whats the down side on kaliyev. He seems to have the skill and size. Is his skating lacking?

    I don’t want a pure shooter or highly skilled offensive floater (with mediocre skating) There are high end forwards with all around skills in this draft who come with motors, and will be able to help take the load off of McDavid and Draisaitl to do all the work.

    McDavid and Draisaitl are the goal scorers the Oilers are looking for.

  99. rickithebear says:

    3-1-1-1 rovers do not win you a cup.
    They often keep you out of the playoffs.
    As I pointed out to this site years ago.

    But did not easily explain the structures and zones based on winning/ vulnerable structures and actions that are so obvious to me.

    The top 60 2-1 HD dman on our team are
    Larsson Top 5 1st comp in a 2-1 structure.
    Sekera Top 15 2 Nd comp in 2-1 structure
    Benning Top 30 3 rd comp in 2-1 structure
    Nurse top 60 3rd comp when maintaining a 2-1 structure.

    Elite 0% corsi dmen on our team.
    Russell #1 in league 0% corsi Dman in 2-1 structure.

    Dmen who repetitively abandon 2-1 structure.
    Klefbom
    Nurse

    Forwards who fail to run NZ trap at high % better be scoring a high number of goals.

    Forwards who are Natural penetrators of HD area and skilled targeters of open space in net elevation have a higher sh% average.
    Why I argued that a higher sh% was sustainable 8-10 years ago.

    Each Dpair establishes a HD open sh expected save% that goalies perform around in a +/-ve level.
    Their is no standard save% avg that everyone regresses to.

    PDO is a binary analytic process.
    It does not take into individual forward, D pair, Goalie performances.
    Or the combination of their seasonal situation means.

    It is a multi variable regression to each combination of
    3-2-1
    And
    3-1-1-1 structures.

    There is no single number they all regress to.
    That is why you look for the combination of players consistent with a cup core roster that establishes
    1. High sh% fwds based on HD penetration and open sh targeting
    2. High % NZ trap fwds
    3. Elite closed shot HD Dmen
    4. Elite open sh save% goalies

    That championship core has worked for 30 years.
    Fwds establish high sh%
    Fwds establish low zone entry rates by NZ trap
    Dmen & goalies establish low expected GA.
    The result is a large expected Goal differential.

    When it comes to playoffs.
    2 teams with equal expected goal differential may not be the same.

    A team like Calgary with elite open HD sh% but poor expected open sh HD GA
    ( brutal d pairs with #2 open HD sh save% goalie Smith) does not survive beyond round 2 as the best Expected GA teams rise to the top.
    Calgary was unable to prevent goals to compete as scoring is reduced.

    Why I told Ken King to ask for Rickithebear at bone marrow Cancer clinic after the playoffs when we were both waiting for treatment.

    We had the best cup core in 16-17 playoffs.
    But 2 good goal calls cost us a chance at championships.
    Pit & EDM should have been the final.

  100. Professor Q says:

    Nurse, Bouchard, and Puljujärvi for Taylor Hall? PLUS picks, and then re-signing Hall?

    Yikes. That’s a bad trade, to be honest, and I love Hall and would love having him back in Edmonton. Trading Bouchard is not a good move. Neither is trading Nurse. You need these players more than Hall at this time, and in the future.

    Although, yes, whatever a Hall trade return is will likely make Chiarelli look even worse. But sacrificing both present and futures to rectify a mistake would spiral rather than phoenix.

  101. jp says:

    Munny:
    Jaxon,

    I’ve watched quite a few USNDTP highlights of Boldy.He looks like the play driver on his line.Has the vision to make the right pass at the right time, goes to the net, has an accurate shot and a good one-timer.

    None of the highlights were with Hughes, so I’m guessing they didn’t get a lot of playing time together. In fact it looks like Boldy was the driver of the 2nd line.So his numbers come with the caveat of poorer QUALCOMP.Still the same is often true of CHL eligibles.

    His linemates appeared to be Caufield & Zegras for a good portion of the season, then Caulfield being such a good triggerman, got promoted to the Hughes line. He was replaced by Rolston and it appears Zegras remained on the line.

    Accordingly I have Boldy rated higher than Zegras, but not as high as Turcotte.Caufield is a great shooter and knows how to find the soft spots, but you wonder at his size whether he will ever win a board battle in the Bigs or defend in his own zone.

    Small guys ALWAYS drop.Too much risk for the reward.I think he will still be there at 8 for sure and likely Boldy too.I think I’d take Boldy because he can pass, shoot, skate, defend, has size and can carry the puck through the neutral zone.More tools.

    I take Cozens over both, but I don’t think he will be there at 8 unless Broberg goes in the top 7.

    Any idea who Turcotte was playing with? I have the impression he also wasn’t playing with Hughes but I could very well be wrong on that.

  102. Truth says:

    godot10: I don’t want a pure shooter or highly skilled offensive floater (with mediocre skating)There are high end forwards with all around skills in this draft who come with motors, and will be able to help take the load off of McDavid and Draisaitl to do all the work.

    McDavid and Draisaitl are the goal scorers the Oilers are looking for.

    I would be the opposite of this. Don’t draft speed, size, or grit alone in the first round unless it is accompanied with high level of skill and hockey sense. I think at least one of Cozens or Dach will be available when the Oilers pick, and I hope they stay away from either of them. I don’t know what it is, but their game seems to be based on their ability to be faster and/or bigger than their current competition. I know Pronman mentions Dach’s hockey sense as a plus (and Cozen’s lack of hockey sense), however I just don’t see it in what I’ve watched from Dach.

    I’d be all over Zegras if he was there when the Oilers pick. No such thing as too much skill or hockey sense. They can find the Zack Kassian’s elsewhere.

  103. ArmchairGM says:

    Re: Hall. Pick up the phone July 1st, 2020 and not before that. The Oilers are not in a position to mortgage the future for an elite rental player this coming season.

  104. leadfarmer says:

    godot10,

    Well he’s signed there for another year

  105. leadfarmer says:

    For those people who don’t want Zucker look up his microstats for last 3 years and last year and notice they haven’t changed and across the board they are blue. Not deep blue like Stone but still blue
    This is a very good player
    https://public.tableau.com/profile/christopher.turtoro#!/vizhome/2-yearA3ZPlayerComps/ComparisonDashboard

  106. Jeremy says:

    Little Johnny Frostbite,

    You may also want “calm your tits”

  107. pts2pndr says:

    godot10: I don’t want a pure shooter or highly skilled offensive floater (with mediocre skating)There are high end forwards with all around skills in this draft who come with motors, and will be able to help take the load off of McDavid and Draisaitl to do all the work.

    McDavid and Draisaitl are the goal scorers the Oilers are looking for.

    I understand and agree with you however there is a distinct possibility Dach Cozens etc are not there at eight. Given that the most difficult commodity to find in hockey is goal scoring and if one is available at eight it would seem logical to draft him. Then rather than your two goal scorers on the same line you would a least have a second line with an elite goal scorer. It would also afford the possibility of being able to run a second line with Draisaitl. Having watched some of goals scored and the scouting report on Kaliyev he could be a very good fit. It would also seem that with Samorukov and Maksimov in the AHL he could be good fit.

  108. David says:

    jp:
    For the past 2 seasons Sekera has been injured or highly sheltered on the third pair, so Benning has effectively been the Oilers 5D (or higher pending other injuries).

    His minutes paired with any of Nurse, Klefbom or Russell over the past 2 seasons would have been mostly as the 2nd pairing (who’d have been playing top 4 if Klefbom-Benning, for instance, were the third pair?).

    Benning overall: 2031min 50.0%CF 49.8%SF 53.5%GF 50.5%xGF

    with Klefbom: 576min 51.4%CF 51.6%SF 48.9%GF (23-24) 53.6%xGF
    with Nurse: 235min 52.8%CF 52.8%SF 66.7%GF (20-10) 53.1%xGF
    with Russell: 121min 46.1%CF 48.4%SF 60.0%GF (6-4) 49.9%xGF

    The above accounts for more than 45% of his 5v5 minutes (932 of his 2031) with really solid results – 49GF and 38GA (56.3%GF). As Woodguy noted there’s a bit of luck in these numbers, but he’s over 53% xGF% with Klefbom and Nurse, and effectively 50% with Russell.

    I know this doesn’t fit the eye test, but IMO Benning has already demonstrated he can play substantial 2nd pairing minutes effectively. I’d have no issue with making him the Oilers 2RD.

    Count me in the group that does not want to trade Benning, more actual NHL defensemen not less.

  109. pitlickdinner says:

    rickithebear,

    Ricki, what does one do with a mobile D who can transport the puck and is good at penetrating in the OZ (by passing or jumping up), but cannot defend in front of their own net?

  110. Sierra says:

    texmex:
    From an article on TSN:

    TORONTO —Connor McDavid didn’t want to answer questions about his knee. The brace hugging his left leg and an accompanying limp said enough.

    Yikes, two months after the injury he’s still limping and wearing a brace…fingers crossed.

  111. Glovjuice says:

    The best Dylan album of course.

  112. Pescador says:

    GMB3: He’s this years Debrincat. Perceived flaws.

    I thought that was Caufield

  113. ausadian says:

    Long time stalker first time poster so be gentle. Re drafting / development – is there anyone else who feels that with the league going younger that the ‘over rippen’ model may not be as relevant today? Are we in danger of implementing a system that is less appropriate today then it was 2 years ago?

  114. Pescador says:

    leadfarmer:
    For those people who don’t want Zucker look up his microstats for last 3 years and last year and notice they haven’t changed and across the board they are blue.Not deep blue like Stone but still blue
    This is a very good player
    https://public.tableau.com/profile/christopher.turtoro#!/vizhome/2-yearA3ZPlayerComps/ComparisonDashboard

    I’m more of a macro-stat guy & the stats say that there are a significant number of posters that want to trade for this player.
    I do not

  115. Material Elvis says:

    leadfarmer: Drafting for need is a recipe for disaster.Just a few years ago we had no D and had plenty of wingers.Now tables have turned.Jones has not played the left side in pro.Sekera will be long gone by the time Broberg is here.We are going to lose someone in the expansion draft
    Now Broberg may not be the best player available when we pick, but I have no problems drafting a LHD.
    Do not draft a player in the hopes of filling a current roster hole.Most likely you will need to fill that hole before that player is ready

    Long live the Leftorium!!

  116. Material Elvis says:

    ausadian:
    Long time stalker first time poster so be gentle. Re drafting / development – is there anyone else who feels that with the league going younger that the ‘over rippen’ model may not be as relevant today? Are we in danger of implementing a system that is less appropriate today then it was 2 years ago?

    No. It is a massive jump from junior or college to professional hockey. That hasn’t changed. Most young players do not have the ability to make an impact at the NHL level. I’d say the development model is as important as ever.

  117. Material Elvis says:

    pitlickdinner:
    rickithebear,

    Ricki, what does one do with a mobile D who can transport the puck and is good at penetrating in the OZ (by passing or jumping up), but cannot defend in front of their own net?

    Trade him to Pittsburgh for pennies on the dollar.

  118. David says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    OriginalPouzar,

    – Other big time trades: Duchene, ROR, Kessel, Lucic (to L.A.), Spezza, Kane, RyJo, Kesler, St-Louis, Statsney, Patches, Domi, Skinner, Hossa: bunch more from last 5 years of elite players if we looked it up

    – Lots of moves and trades for elite players happen: Truth.A Hall trade today would be in this category:

    I’d give you Kessel, that guy gets no respect, maybe because he’s been traded twice? Because he could n’t drag a bad leafs team to glory? (no Oiler fan should ever blame a player for that) Because Crosby and Malkin are on the Penguins? He’s been one of the best, consistent goal scorers in the league, is a true sniper, and is a very underrated playmaker.

    As someone who always thought Spezza was criminally underrated, my heart wants to give you him too, after eleven seasons in Ottawa he was a career point per game player. He got traded at 30 though so not the same as a Hall or Seguin type deal.

    The rest of them are really good players, maybe even great like Ryan O’Reilly. But Not quite at the level of Taylor Hall I don’t think.

  119. leadfarmer says:

    Pescador: I’m more of a macro-stat guy & the stats say that there are a significant number of posters that want to trade for this player.
    I do not

    Well you’re in luck. The macro stats say he’s a very good player as well

  120. GMB3 says:

    Pescador: I thought that was Caufield

    Except Caufield is getting a lot of love in the top ten from most rankings. Debrincat did not. Yes they are both small goal scorers, but Debrincats ranking in his draft year looks absurd in the context of his stats in the OHL

  121. GMB3 says:

    leadfarmer: Well you’re in luck.The macro stats say he’s a very good player as well

    Lol.

  122. GMB3 says:

    godot10: Debrincat has a motor.

    Wasn’t there a lot of griping about his attitude and approach to the game as a junior? Why else would a guy who tore up the best junior league in the planet slip so low

  123. GMB3 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    OriginalPouzar,

    – Other big time trades: Duchene, ROR, Kessel, Lucic (to L.A.), Spezza, Kane, RyJo, Kesler, St-Louis, Statsney, Patches, Domi, Skinner, Hossa: bunch more from last 5 years of elite players if we looked it up

    – Lots of moves and trades for elite players happen: Truth.A Hall trade today would be in this category:

    Is Evander Kane an elite player? Or Max Domi? Lucic elite?

    I guess it depends on your definition of elite.

  124. blainer says:

    Congrats to the Newfoundland Growlers.. ECHL champs !!

    Our first ever pro hockey championship.

  125. David says:

    leadfarmer:
    For those people who don’t want Zucker look up his microstats for last 3 years and last year and notice they haven’t changed and across the board they are blue.Not deep blue like Stone but still blue
    This is a very good player
    https://public.tableau.com/profile/christopher.turtoro#!/vizhome/2-yearA3ZPlayerComps/ComparisonDashboard

    Kris Russell does not look good on there. I’m very curious what Chiarelli’s metric for controlled exits was it? was.

  126. godot10 says:

    GMB3: Wasn’t there a lot of griping about his attitude and approach to the game as a junior? Why else would a guy who tore up the best junior league in the planet slip so low

    He was a “d$$#” with a motor. Sort of like Patrick Kane. However scouts thought mistakenly Strome was the river pusher when it was DeBrincat. He had one year with McDavid and one with Strome.

    So now scouts are going to overcompensate and make a mistake by taking Caufield too high.

    Kane > DeBrincat > Caufield

  127. Biggus Dickus says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – If they were all healthy and good:

    Klef-Larsson
    Nurse-Benning
    Sek-Jones

    – You’ve got most of D that are slotted properly, and if a Nurse-Benning worked, healthy Sek would be awesome to be McGyvering the kids

    – It’s also an injury to Sek + 20 games missed from Klef away from disaster…

    If your top

    ausadian:
    Long time stalker first time poster so be gentle. Re drafting / development – is there anyone else who feels that with the league going younger that the ‘over rippen’ model may not be as relevant today? Are we in danger of implementing a system that is less appropriate today then it was 2 years ago?

    No. First rounders seem to establish themselves sooner, but I think tha/ a bit overstated. Benson is in draft+4 next year, and that is best case scenario for most prospects out there.

  128. leadfarmer says:

    David: Kris Russell does not look good on there. I’m very curious what Chiarelli’s metric for controlled exits was it? was.

    I think it was a hopes and prayers based stat.
    Russell does one thing well. Collapse to the goalie and flop in front of the puck. 95% of the ice he is completely worthless but he does do one thing well. With Russell you are playing one man down

  129. Lowetide says:

    David: Kris Russell does not look good on there. I’m very curious what Chiarelli’s metric for controlled exits was it? was.

    He had the paper upside down.

  130. leadfarmer says:

    You can also see why Gravel got the boot. That’s ugly
    Benning looks like he will get replaced soon
    Nurse is what he is. Poor defensively and doesn’t move the puck well but above avg in offensive zone which fits the eye test (do not break the bank for this player unless he takes a big step forward, you are paying for points that he ends up giving up in his own zone)
    Larsson is pretty meh which is what he is although by far our best righty
    Klef is above average
    Russell is garbage
    Manning is Russell
    Sekera hopefully recovers

  131. David says:

    Lowetide: He had the paper upside down.

    Ah, yes I see. Sigh. I had such high hopes for Chiarelli. Now Holland…

  132. leadfarmer says:

    Forwards from microstats
    Mcdavid God mode but needs to shoot more.
    Drai top notch player but also needs to shoot more
    Nuge great at moving puck but meh in shot creation
    Puljujarvi replacement level
    Kassian replacement level but ok in ozone
    Lucic horrendous at moving puck but decent once established in ozone
    Khaira good at moving puck out of zone but poor otherwise
    Brodziak complete garbage
    Reider slightly better Brodziak
    Rattie garbage that shot the puck a lot

    Strome was our 4th best forward

  133. Pescador says:

    leadfarmer: Well you’re in luck.The macro stats say he’s a very good player as well

    haha Dammit!
    That’s what I get for quoting a post that I didn’t read carefully.
    I deserved that,
    So what is Calgary trading for Zucker?

  134. Scungilli Slushy says:

    There are 2 for sure elite players in this draft.

    LT correctly sees another who at worst will be a very solid player in Byram.

    I say this based on what I’ve learned here and looking at what makes players successful and what torpedoes them.

    Players in the top of the first round are the best hockey players in their cohort on the planet.

    They don’t lack hockey talent and sense. What they can lack is enough speed, enough drive. It takes another level of dedication to succeed in the best league and some people don’t have the desire.

    Drive can also mean like Yak that they don’t want to play the whole game. Being one dimensional means that dimension has to be exceptional, and very few players in any sport achieve that.

    Nobody knows what players out of the top players in the first round will become, but if they have as many of the right attributes for the NHL as possible the safer the gamble.

    Each, Cousens, etc? Crap shoot. Does your team really need a high end RC? Draft one.

    You should never take a lesser player to fill a hole, but if you can’t tell who is better you take what you need.

    I always found it funny here when posters would envy the D of Ducks and Preds, who drafted D for years at the top and the Oilers didn’t, and then talk BPA. Or goalies. Like Vas in Tampa.

    Drafting 1 OV so many times actually hurt more than it helped, because you end up with a clear BPA that you should pick, and if it isn’t what the team needs most, or it’s a weak draft like Nuge’s and Yak’s, and it’s really hard to make high end hockey trades, it might be better to pick lower and take what you need. Or understand the draft pool and trade down.

  135. Pescador says:

    David: Kris Russell does not look good on there. I’m very curious what Chiarelli’s metric for controlled exits was it? was.

    Lowetide: He had the paper upside down.

    Russell Allowed the most controlled zone entries in the NHL.
    No wonder Chiarelli got rid of Dellow,
    P
    He couldn’t understand what the hell Tyler was talking about

  136. leadfarmer says:

    I still get a kick out of people have been calling Faulk a cannibal for years while the real cannibal has been gnawing on our leg the entire time
    Nurse is the player people thought Faulk was without Faulk actually being
    A cannibal.
    He is young and can get better especially with a better partner but he’s a player we should keep a close eye on and sell high if he’s not showing improvement in his own zone

  137. rickithebear says:

    When it comes to goal differential science.
    You want elite HD penetration and open net sh forwards that get high shooting % and high goal/ pocession rates.

    It is the battle I am hAving on the leading Detroit lions blog site.
    You want elite QB,s with high passing td%, TD/ pocession rates.
    Yards get contracts, points win Super Bowls.

    You want the best
    HD penetration
    And
    Open space targeting forwards taking the shot.
    The more of them the better.

    Draisaitl 4 full seasons
    16.8 sh% 2.32 sh/ gm .390g/gm
    Mcdavid career
    14.7 sh% 3.03 sh/gm .445g/gm
    RNH last 2 none PVP seasons
    14.5% 2.49 sh/ gm .361g/gm
    Eberle last 3 seasons 1 Ed 2 NYI
    11.6% 2.28/gm .264 g/gm
    Kapanen 2 yr in Tor
    11.8% 1.97sh/gm .232g/gm
    Nylander 3 full seasons
    9.4% 2.39 sh/gm .225g/gm
    Connolly based on 5 fullest seasons TMP, BOS, WSH
    16.0% 1.36sh/gm .216g/gm projects to 15-16G 30P
    Chaisson last 3 seasons CGY, WSH, EDM
    15.0% 1.34 sh/ gm .200g/gm
    Kassian s 4 seasons partial games with Sedin s & Mcdavid
    15.0% 1.31 SH/ gm .197g/gm
    Gagner last 3 seasons
    8.4% 2.18 sh/gm .183g/gm
    Khaira 2 seasons
    10.1% 1.06 sh/gm .107g/gm
    Lucic last 2 seasons
    7.2% 1.37sh/gm .099g/gm

    I am quiteok with Kassian getting games on Mcdavids other wing.
    Suspect he gets more than 20 G.
    might end up as top 125 forwards 16g 39p
    Chaisson had lesser success with Mcdavid @ even
    But getting same even with Mcdavid & Gagner plus PP he is a 20 goal scorer again.

    Gagner based on last 3 seasons would likely be 15-16g 33-42p
    Connolly projects
    15-16G 29-31P over 5 ssn or
    16-17g 31-32p 3 yr in WSH

    Most critical Fwd Def GA actions are NZ press and coverage of edge of perimeter.

    Lucic slotted with Gagner @ even shines.
    Gagner Same affect with Kassian & Brodziak.

  138. Munny says:

    Little Johnny Frostbite,

    Cahoon,

    And anyone else wanting LT swag, I’m going to put up a pic shortly on an unrelated website I have under construction, for y’all to review.

    If it meets with our host’s approval and is popular among Lowetidians, I will forward him the file, and he can use it to put it on T-shirts and coffee mugs.

    I will only be putting up the black and white file as I don’t have time to mess around with colours right now, and besides, Allan or you might want it changed… so why waste time?

    Bear with me, should be within the hour.

  139. Ryan says:

    leadfarmer: I think it was a hopes and prayers based stat.
    Russell does one thing well.Collapse to the goalie and flop in front of the puck.95% of the ice he is completely worthless but he does do one thing well. With Russell you are playing one man down

    Maybe second in off the glass and out / 60.

    ““Relying on analytics for d-men is tough. We looked at all that stuff. I saw all that stuff on him. But we need someone who can retrieve pucks and can transport the puck through the neutral zone. Just a side note, analytics in regards to Kris. He was second in the league as far as clean entries into the offensive zone and the neutral zone, whether it’s a pass or skating. Second in the league. That’s not in conventional analytics that are just kind of derivatives of Corsi. That’s on our own program that we have, and there’s a few other teams that have it. Second in the league.”

  140. OriginalPouzar says:

    Hall, Seguin, Kessel, Thornton, Pronger, Jones, Subban, Weber, Panarin

    Top players do get traded – not as rentals.

  141. Pescador says:

    Ryan: Maybe second in off the glass and out / 60.

    ““Relying on analytics for d-men is tough. We looked at all that stuff. I saw all that stuff on him. But we need someone who can retrieve pucks and can transport the puck through the neutral zone. Just a side note, analytics in regards to Kris. He was second in the league as far as clean entries into the offensive zone and the neutral zone, whether it’s a pass or skating. Second in the league. That’s not in conventional analytics that are just kind of derivatives of Corsi. That’s on our own program that we have, and there’s a few other teams that have it. Second in the league.”

    Ahh the same excellent program that brought you such classics as:
    “Petrovic over trouble water”
    &
    “Manning On the run”

  142. Todd Macallan says:

    blainer,

    Yes b’y! Made it out to a few this year, including a win in the 8th round of a shootout in a game involving Marco Roy on the opposing team. He did not stand out in the ECHL.

  143. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Hall, Seguin, Kessel, Thornton, Pronger, Jones, Subban, Weber, Panarin

    Top players do get traded – not as rentals.

    Yes but usually by Chia and he’s gone

  144. GMB3 says:

    leadfarmer:
    I still get a kick out of people have been calling Faulk a cannibal for years while the real cannibal has been gnawing on our leg the entire time
    Nurse is the player people thought Faulk was without Faulk actually being
    A cannibal.
    He is young and can get better especially with a better partner but he’s a player we should keep a close eye on and sell high if he’s not showing improvement in his own zone

    I really like you today

  145. Munny says:

    Okay Lowetidia,

    Here we go…

    http://connectweekly.ca/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Lowetide-web-copy.jpg

    A couple of notes… I have some finishing details to add… probably some interior circles or dotted circles bordering where “oilogosphere etc” sits, and I want to curve the bottom of “Lowetide” like the little curves at the bottom of “Oilers”.

    This was done from scratch, and is a significant change over the regular logo, so I’m guessing there’s no copyright issues. However I am not a copyright lawyer, so if one wants to weigh in, please do.

    I will provide at least two colour options tomorrow if the ‘Sphere likes it, including mock-ups where you can view the crest on Tees. At least one version will have the “oilogosphere” portion in white, on a solid background, likely orange.

    Please leave some feedback below. Especially you, LT, because if you don’t like it, going forward is kinda pointless.

    Feel free, anyone, to share the pic on Twitter for further feedback, but please download the pic and share it… rather than the link.

    One last thing… I’m not going to do a T-shirt backside as that would significantly increase the printing costs to LT and I’d like to see him make some decent coin to support this wonderful site while keeping the swag affordable to y’all.

  146. GMB3 says:

    godot10: He was a “d$$#” with a motor.Sort of like Patrick Kane. However scouts thought mistakenly Strome was the river pusher when it was DeBrincat.He had one year with McDavid and one with Strome.

    So now scouts are going to overcompensate and make a mistake by taking Caufield too high.

    Kane > DeBrincat > Caufield

    That’s my feeling too. The lack of assists worry me.

  147. rickithebear says:

    Pescador:
    Russell Allowed the most controlled zone entries in the NHL.
    No wonder Chiarelli got rid of Dellow,
    P
    He couldn’t understand what the hell Tyler was talking about

    Your Binary analysis says Russell sucks.

    Z entry primary influences are
    A. Forwards running NZ pressure ( trap)
    B. d pair pressuring blue in unison
    C. Rover failing to re- establish 2-1

    Dpair gets charged a failure if forwards run NZ pressure and entry is allowed.
    Forwards failure to run NZ is high entry yield rate.
    Rover gets charged failure if does not establish 2-1

    Your binary analysis does not look at the influences of some of the multi variables.

    Teams have video and staffing to analyze the complex transition affects.

  148. slopitch says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Hall, Seguin, Kessel, Thornton, Pronger, Jones, Subban, Weber, Panarin

    Top players do get traded – not as rentals.

    Woulda never thought Karlsson would move either. Wasnt that good this year though.

    Very rare these players move though. Hence why most oilers fans were ok with a rebuild in the first place. Only real way to grab elite talent.

  149. jp says:

    blainer:
    Congrats to the Newfoundland Growlers.. ECHL champs !!

    Our first ever pro hockey championship.

    Cool, I’d missed that. Thanks for mentioning.

  150. jp says:

    Munny:
    Okay Lowetidia,

    Here we go…

    http://connectweekly.ca/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Lowetide-web-copy.jpg

    I was thinking I likely wouldn’t get any LT swag, but yeah that’s pretty solid. I’d probably have to buy a shirt or something.

  151. Glovjuice says:

    jp: I was thinking I likely wouldn’t get any LT swag, but yeah that’s pretty solid. I’d probably have to buy a shirt or something.

    LT ain’t gonna like it. I guarantee it’s a no go.

  152. Jaxon says:

    pts2pndr: Whats the down side on kaliyev. He seems to have the skill and size. Is his skating lacking?

    There are perceptions about his work ethic that I think may be overstated. He scored at a rate that only Stamkos, Tavares, Skinner, and Debrincat have in the OHL and he was younger than they were. Also remember that skating was also a negative attached to Tavares, Skinner, and Debrincat. Pronman also lists Kaliyev’s hockey sense as high. I don’t think Kaliyev is slow by any means. I think he’s actually projected as an above average skater. Nothing that should hold back an NHL career.

    Pronman:
    “What immediately stands out about Kaliyev is not his shot, which you would think would be the selling point for a 50-goal scorer. Rather, his hockey sense stands out as his best trait. He’s one of the best passers in the OHL.”

    And
    “I will say this about Kaliyev: I don’t believe this is a character issue. With cases like DeAngelo and Merkley, you’d hear negative stories from people who worked with them about the person. With Kaliyev it’s been mostly the opposite, as the impressions of him as a person and player are positive.”

    His coach:
    “Arthur is one of the most dynamic players I’ve coached in the OHL in my six years here. I coached Dylan Strome and Alex DeBrincat. In my opinion, Arthur is just as good a player as either of those two,” said Vince Laise, the acting coach of the Hamilton Bulldogs.

    Laise was formerly an assistant coach with Erie.

    “Arthur has the ability to find the back of the net just as those two did at the same age,” Laise said. “They differ in play styles but all achieve what NHL organizations look for. Arthur is more than just a power play producer, his underlying value is his ability to produce at even strength and his playmaking. He’s been as coachable as they come and a pleasure to work with.”

  153. Munny says:

    Glovjuice: LT ain’t gonna like it. I guarantee it’s a no go.

    Why not move the conversation forward by offering some actual feedback? Or give your opinion rather than speaking for someone slse?Theres lots of adaptations I can make to that design… now that Im done that damn W.

  154. Jaxon says:

    Truth: I would be the opposite of this.Don’t draft speed, size, or grit alone in the first round unless it is accompanied with high level of skill and hockey sense.I think at least one of Cozens or Dach will be available when the Oilers pick, and I hope they stay away from either of them.I don’t know what it is, but their game seems to be based on their ability to be faster and/or bigger than their current competition.I know Pronman mentions Dach’s hockey sense as a plus (and Cozen’s lack of hockey sense), however I just don’t see it in what I’ve watched from Dach.

    I’d be all over Zegras if he was there when the Oilers pick.No such thing as too much skill or hockey sense.They can find the Zack Kassian’s elsewhere.

    Pronman did not say Cozens had any lack of hockey sense. In fact Pronman rates Cozens’ hockey sense to project as a 60 (top 3rd in the NHL).

  155. Jaxon says:

    From Pronman’s scores on prospects:

    Hockey Sense 65 or higher: Hughes, Kakko, Zegras, Boldy, Newhook, Krebs, Kaliyev, Suzuki, Brinks, N. Robertson, Mastrosimone, Legate, Beaucage, Koster, Malm, Tanis.

    Skating 65 or higher: Hughes, Broberg, Newhook, Fensore, Aaltonen

    Puck Skills 65 or higher: Hoglander, Hughes, Kakko, Caufield, Boldt, Puistola, Huglen, Altybarmakyan, Likhachyov, Malm.

    Physical Game 65 or higher: Vlasic (ME’s 6’6″ cousin), Voronkov, Cozens, Seider, Beecher, Leason, Hamaliuk, Attard, Misyul, Tuomisto, Korczak, Bolduc.

    Shot Grade 65 or higher: Caufield, Nick Robertson.

    Hughes (3), Kakko, Malm, Newhook, Caufield, N Robertson show up multiple times as near elite in a category.

  156. Jaxon says:

    Byram, Aaltonen, and Slepets are the only players who Pronman scored a 60 or more in both skating and shot grade.

  157. London Jon says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Hall, Seguin, Kessel, Thornton, Pronger, Jones, Subban, Weber, Panarin

    Top players do get traded – not as rentals.

    Such trades are materially less likely with Peter Chiarelli out of the league!!

  158. OriginalPouzar says:

    Not that he was every actually coming to Edmonton, Datsyuk is returning to the KHL next year to play for Avtomobilist Yekaterinburg.

    Bring on Filppula (one year)….

  159. London Jon says:

    Erm, did I miss something?!?!

    Loui Erikkson shows up on Wikipedia as an Edmonton Oiler!

    Someone’s having some LOLs

  160. ArmchairGM says:

    London Jon:
    Erm, did I miss something?!?!

    Loui Erikkson shows up on Wikipedia as an Edmonton Oiler!

    Someone’s having some LOLs

    But it still shows Lucic on the Oilers… uh oh, did anyone check to make sure Chiarelli really did leave the building when he was fired?

  161. ArmchairGM says:

    leadfarmer:
    Forwards from microstats
    Mcdavid God mode but needs to shoot more.
    Drai top notch player but also needs to shoot more
    Nuge great at moving puck but meh in shot creation
    Puljujarvi replacement level
    Kassian replacement level but ok in ozone
    Lucic horrendous at moving puck but decent once established in ozone
    Khaira good at moving puck out of zone but poor otherwise
    Brodziak complete garbage
    Reider slightly better Brodziak
    Rattie garbage that shot the puck a lot

    Strome was our 4th best forward

    Not trying to pick a fight, but your phrasing is interesting:

    – Puljujarvi is 50% or above in all but 2 categories, his exit stats border on elite yet he’s “replacement level”
    – Khaira’s exits are good but not as good as Puljujarvi’s
    – All of Kassian’s numbers are below 50%, yet your phrasing indicates that he’s got an edge on JP
    – Nuge’s shot creation is great, these stats indicate his shot rate isn’t, not his shot creation. Yet he was 64th in the NHL for total shots and scored 28 goals
    – McDavid was 25th in the league in total shots last year, Draisaitl was 35th – I would suggest they both learned to shoot more already

    Based on the public tableau stats Puljujarvi’s impact on Shot Contributions is about the same as Strome’s, yet Exits and Entries clearly favour the young Finn. And that includes Strome’s time in NY where he played much better, indicating to me that JP is our 4th best forward, not Strome.

  162. ArmchairGM says:

    leadfarmer:
    Forwards from microstats
    Mcdavid God mode but needs to shoot more.
    Drai top notch player but also needs to shoot more
    Nuge great at moving puck but meh in shot creation
    Puljujarvi replacement level
    Kassian replacement level but ok in ozone
    Lucic horrendous at moving puck but decent once established in ozone
    Khaira good at moving puck out of zone but poor otherwise
    Brodziak complete garbage
    Reider slightly better Brodziak
    Rattie garbage that shot the puck a lot

    Strome was our 4th best forward

    Just looking at some of the stats further, specifically Shots60 because that’s easily verifyable through naturalstattrick.com and there are clearly some discrepancies, probably due to the fact that they only tracked a handful of games over the 3 years.

    Player / Rating* / shots/60**

    Zucker / 90 / 9.09
    McDavid / 75 / 8.27
    Puljujarvi / 72 / 7.78
    Nugent / 41 / 7.39
    Kelfbom / 93 / 7.08
    Nurse / 82 / 6.56
    Strome / 24 / 6.50
    Kassian / 28 / 6.48
    Draisaitl / 25 / 6.09
    Khaira / 22 / 5.31
    Benning / 72 / 4.94

    * from Corey Sznajder
    ** naturalstattrick.com

    Maybe defensemen are rated on a different scale, but that doesn’t explain the massive discrepancy between Nuge and Puljujarvi who shoot at similar rates.

    Not sure I would trust that data very much, although I can only verify the one metric, so who knows. It certainly is an interesting graphic.

  163. ArmchairGM says:

    leadfarmer:
    For those people who don’t want Zucker look up his microstats for last 3 years and last year and notice they haven’t changed and across the board they are blue.Not deep blue like Stone but still blue
    This is a very good player
    https://public.tableau.com/profile/christopher.turtoro#!/vizhome/2-yearA3ZPlayerComps/ComparisonDashboard

    I wonder if LT looked at this site prior to trading for Glendenning… my guess is no.

    Brett Connoly also doesn’t warrant a big money contract with term based on this assessment… and I would absolutely pursue Burakovsky and Kapanen this summer.

  164. gimme shelter says:

    You are under rating Dimitri samurokov in the AHL. He will be advancing to the NHL along with Evan Bouchard even on the same day. Once he gets there I do not say they should play together. They need to be split up and play with an experienced NHL defenceman. Dimitri is years ahead of Manning. The oil have been unlucky with their late picks but once we get one we should not waste him in the AHL.

  165. Lowetide says:

    For The Athletic: Hard Target Search: Finding the Oilers a centre who can penalty kill, help shape a useful third line, and serve in a mentor role

    https://theathletic.com/1010641/2019/06/05/lowetide-finding-the-oilers-a-centre-who-can-penalty-kill-and-serve-in-a-mentor-role/

  166. leadfarmer says:

    ArmchairGM: I wonder if LT looked at this site prior to trading for Glendenning… my guess is no.

    Brett Connoly also doesn’t warrant a big money contract with term based on this assessment… and I would absolutely pursue Burakovsky and Kapanen this summer.

    Yes I would absolutely pursue Burakovsky hard and let someone else make the mistake on Connolly.
    Kapanen would be great too.
    Solutions are out there. Unfortunately they require cap space.
    Add Zucker Burakovsky and Kapanen and now you are cooking with oil

  167. leadfarmer says:

    ArmchairGM: Not trying to pick a fight, but your phrasing is interesting:

    – Puljujarvi is 50% or above in all but 2 categories, his exit stats border on elite yet he’s “replacement level”– Khaira’s exits are good but not as good as Puljujarvi’s– All of Kassian’s numbers are below 50%, yet your phrasing indicates that he’s got an edge on JP– Nuge’s shot creation is great, these stats indicate his shot rate isn’t, not his shot creation. Yet he was 64th in the NHL for total shots and scored 28 goals– McDavid was 25th in the league in total shots last year, Draisaitl was 35th – I would suggest they both learned to shoot more already

    Based on the public tableau stats Puljujarvi’s impact on Shot Contributions is about the same as Strome’s, yet Exits and Entries clearly favour the young Finn. And that includes Strome’s time in NY where he played much better, indicating to me that JP is our 4th best forward, not Strome.

    JPs numbers were from last year. He had a much better year the year before if you are on the 3 year scale

  168. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy (@Woodguy55) · Twitter
    https://twitter.com/Woodguy55

    Via @Freyja1987 (private account) KHL team Jokerit to announce a 1 year deal with Jesse Puljujarvi

  169. russ99 says:

    Pouzar,

    https://geemediasports.com/khl-ja-nhl-tahdet-antti-niemi-ja-jesse-puljujarvi-ovat-siirtymassa-jokereihin/

    from google translate:

    Jokerit will hold a press conference today at 11:00 am, where the club will publish two major player contracts, Antti Niemi and, most likely, Jesse Puljujärvi. Antti Niemi’s contract with Jokers is known to be two years old and Jesse Puljujärvi’s contract would be one year long.

    This would be a good move for Jesse if true, playing in Finland vs. KHL competition, and bumps the RFA contract down the road a year.

  170. OriginalPouzar says:

    Dimitri Samorukov is a very nice prospect – he has the highest potential of all the Oilers prospect d-men in my opinion given his broad skillset (“all tools guy”).

    Having him play in the AHL as a 20 year old rookie pro is not “wasting the pick”, in my opinion, its developing the pick so that he can develop and reach at least a portion of his potential.

    He very well may start on the 3rd pairing in the AHL, however, as Lagesson did last year, can easily earn his way up the depth chart with his play and I expect him to do just that.

    I posit the organization should allow the player to develop.

  171. Pouzar says:

    russ99:
    Pouzar,

    https://geemediasports.com/khl-ja-nhl-tahdet-antti-niemi-ja-jesse-puljujarvi-ovat-siirtymassa-jokereihin/

    from google translate:

    Jokerit will hold a press conference today at 11:00 am, where the club will publish two major player contracts, Antti Niemi and, most likely, Jesse Puljujärvi. Antti Niemi’s contract with Jokers is known to be two years old and Jesse Puljujärvi’s contract would be one year long.

    I think this is the best possible outcome no?
    Coming off an injury he can make his way back slowly and regain some offensive form with some big minutes in Finland.

  172. Jethro Tull says:

    Pouzar: I think this is the best possible outcome no?
    Coming off an injury he can make his way back slowly and regain some offensive form with some big minutes in Finland.

    I don’t agree, Pouz. This should have been done 2yrs ago. Now he’s in a limbo where he needs to improve his English and game on the smaller ice, but can’t because he wasn’t left long enough at home.

    This is a hail mary before cutting bait.

  173. jp says:

    Pouzar:
    Woodguy (@Woodguy55) · Twitter
    https://twitter.com/Woodguy55

    Via @Freyja1987 (private account) KHL team Jokerit to announce a 1 year deal with Jesse Puljujarvi

    Wow. I have zero issue with him developing another season or 2 in the KHL. Could be great for the player. But I also don’t like the fracture with the team that this might indicate.

  174. Pouzar says:

    Jethro Tull: I don’t agree, Pouz. This should have been done 2yrs ago.

    Oh Gord yeah. I lobbied for this big time after he was drafted. I wanted 2 yrs in Finland.

    It does have a “Hail Mary” feel to it. I am not optimistic on this player being an Oiler in the future. Too much has happened here.

  175. Pechetr says:

    Why isn’t there more of a concern for Oscar Klefbom’s durability on this site? He is averaging only 60 games a year since he started full time with the Oil. People here are concerned about Taylor Hall but he averages 5 more games per season.

  176. ArmchairGM says:

    leadfarmer: JPs numbers were from last year.He had a much better year the year before if you are on the 3 year scale

    Oh yes, I was using the 3-year scale.

  177. jp says:

    Pechetr:
    Why isn’t there more of a concern for Oscar Klefbom’s durability on this site? He is averaging only 60 games a year since he started full time with the Oil. People here are concerned about Taylor Hall but he averages 5 more games per season.

    Klefbom is signed through his 20’s for 4.1M per year. Hall would be signing mostly for his 30’s for 9 or 10M per year. Very different animals.

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