Teenage Wasteland

Craig Button’s final list is out today and if you’re an Oilers fan it would be a good idea to have a look. Over the last three drafts, Button’s list does a very good job of tracking Edmonton’s picks. What does that mean? Well, chances are the player chose No. 8 overall will be close to that number on Button’s list. It’s a fascinating trend, not because of the first rounders, but because it doesn’t stop there.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group. INSANE OFFER IS HERE!

  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The top five players the Oilers could lose in the expansion draft
  • New Jonathan Willis: What a trade involving Edmonton’s No. 8 pick might look like given Ken Holland’s history
  • New LowetideHard Target Search: Finding the Oilers a centre who can penalty kill, help shape a useful third line, and serve in a mentor role
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How a third-line grinder launched the star-filled Oilers to their first Stanley Cup and a hockey dynasty.
  • Lowetide: Is Zack Kassian the answer for the McDavid-Draisaitl line?
  • Lowetide: NHL Combine brings Oilers dual problems into focus for Ken Holland
  • Lowetide: Analyzing the Oilers roster to see which players fit Dave Tippett’s ‘aggressive, fast team’ approach
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Dave Tippett’s coaching philosophy, how he relays information to his players and why information is king
  • Lowetide: What will Ken Holland see in Evan Bouchard?
  • Lowetide: Does Oilers’ signing of Joakim Nygard signal a measured approach to summer 2019?
  • Lowetide: Dave Tippett’s roster deployment in Arizona and what it might mean for the Oilers
  • Jonathan Willis: Why Ken Holland’s worst years in Detroit tell us the most about how he’ll fare in Edmonton
  • Jonathan Willis: Three offseason scenarios and how each one would affect the Oilers salary cap
  • Lowetide: Examining the Oilers’ goaltending options in free agency.
  • Jonathan Willis: Every Oilers AHL prospect, rated by how close they are to the NHL
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Protector, supporter, confidant: Connor McDavid’s mom, Kelly, is his off-ice rock through good times and bad
  • Lowetide: An offseason plan for Ken Holland to remodel the Oilers roster.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland steadfast that buck stops with him as new Oilers GM.
  • Lowetide: How will Ken Holland proceed in Year 1 as Oilers general manager?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Prioritizing the roster issues that await Ken Holland in Edmonton.
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s procurement list for his rumored move to Edmonton will include front-office personnel
  • Jonathan Willis: A Milan Lucic trade is at the top of the to-do list for the Oilers’ next GM.

BUTTON AND THE OILERS

Edmonton selects No. 8, 38 and 85 this June. Probably a good idea to pay attention to the names in range that remain on the board when the Oilers pick in Vancouver. If Edmonton grabs the numbers from Button’s March list, Oilers will walk away with Alex Turcotte (No. 8), Phillip Tomasino (No. 38) and Layton Ahac (No. 85). Helluva take.

JESSE’S COMPS

In year one, JP’s closest comp was Mikko Rantanen. Both men spent their draft years in the Sm-Liiga, and both men showed enough offensive ability to be considered solid contributors in a men’s league. Rantanen was 18 years, 239 days on his draft day, Puljujarvi was 18 years, 48 days on his draft day. Puljujarvi went 4-5-9 in 10 playoff games.

Year two has a couple of reasonable comparable, I think William Nylander is the closest to Puljujarvi’s totals in draft +1. No NHL games for Toronto’s prospect, that’s something to keep in mind moving forward.

Year three sees the other three men stepping forward and Puljujarvi reaching an offensive plateau. Puljujarvi wasn’t productive enough to stay in the range with Pastrnak as a young NHL player.

Year four and Jesse is a stone alone. Not the good kind, the Bill Wyman kind.

When people discuss Puljujarvi’s shortcomings, all kinds of things come into play. A word cloud might include “instincts”, “immature”, “communication issues” and “problems learning” and they may all hit the nail on the head. However, when we talk about results, the numbers, I feel we can speak in more concrete terms.

One of the first questions I ask about a young player is the following: Is there any spot in the lineup where he has shown signs of success? In the case of JP, the answer is yes.

JP with 97 2016-17 5-on-5: 0-4-4 in 84:01 (2.86)

JP with 97 2017-18 5-on-5: 5-3-8 in 256:57 (1.87)

JP with 97 2018-19 5-on-5: 1-1-2 in 66:46 (1.80)

That works out to 6-8-14 (2.06 5-on-5 per 60 in 407:44) and that’s a productive player. Now, is JP the most productive RW for 97? I doubt the player feels that way and two coaches have had different ideas. Ty Rattie went 6-9-15 in 402:55 (2.23), that’s a stronger number and I do think McDavid had good chem with Rattie.

If I’m Ken Holland, and can convince Puljujarvi to return, I’d bring up the idea of running the big Finn with McDavid for at least 250 minutes 5-on-5 next season. At the very least, he’d have increased trade value next summer. That’s what Sam Pollock would do. Sometimes a manager and coach have to put away ‘making a young player earn the opportunity’ to get the most from a valuable asset. I wrote about Puljujarvi in April for The Athletic here.

I mentioned this a few days ago, but Pronman’s pick for Edmonton seems to have some momentum as the actual selection. No idea where this is coming from, but no one mentioned his name before Ken Holland arrived at Fort Edmonton.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

We’re back this morning with another edition of the Lowdown at 10 on TSN1260. Julian Edlow will join us from Draft Kings at 10:20 to talk Raptors, and Frank Seravalli from TSN hits the airwaves at 11:05 to talk SCF, free agency and just how close to the Blues came to being blown up in the middle of the 2018-19 season. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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182 Responses to "Teenage Wasteland"

  1. Rondo says:

    Hockey Prospect rankings came out yesterday.

    https://www.hockeyprospect.com/hockeyprospect-com-final-2019-nhl-draft-top-31-ranking/

    Interesting where Broberg and Cozens are ranked

  2. Glovjuice says:

    From late in yesterday’s thread;

    Glovjuice top 10 2019:
    1. Kakko
    2. Byram
    3. Kaliyev
    4. Hughes
    5. Broberg
    6. Turcotte
    7. Boldy
    8. Dach
    9. Cozens
    10. Podkolzin

    5 years out it will look like this.

  3. Hemsky is a gangsta says:

    I don’t have a subscription to The Athletic but I’m assuming Pronman has us taking Broberg?

  4. zatch says:

    Broberg seems like an awfully odd selection given Edmonton’s timelines and Prospect D depth. Can someone explain the logic?

  5. Woogie63 says:

    A young winger need a pro at center to teach them the game.

    JP, Yak, Pitlick and Slepyshev all are good enough to be developed and play NHL hockey in Edmonton, but have never played enough with a real pro at Center.

  6. Side says:

    Glovjuice:
    From late in yesterday’s thread;

    Glovjuice top 10 2019:
    1. Kakko
    2. Byram
    3. Kaliyev
    4. Hughes
    5. Broberg
    6. Turcotte
    7. Boldy
    8. Dach
    9. Cozens
    10. Podkolzin

    5 years out it will look like this.

    Times like this I wish LT’s site had a “Remind” function. I would be curious to see how your list would look in 5 years.

  7. Pescador says:

    anduril:
    JP for Roslovic?

    https://www.tsn.ca/nhl-off-seaon-watch-jack-roslovic-unhappy-with-his-role-the-winnipeg-jets-1.1317473

    Interesting, I think A.Burakovsky would make sense as well.
    I’m not sure if this radio station is a good choice for sports news but
    Rishaug on TSN 1260 this morning:
    “Even with a new coach/GM, if Puljujarvi still wants out of Edmonton. The problem is likely in the dressing room”
    There something in the water bottle

  8. Darth Tu says:

    Glovjuice:
    From late in yesterday’s thread;

    Glovjuice top 10 2019:
    1. Kakko
    2. Byram
    3. Kaliyev
    4. Hughes
    5. Broberg
    6. Turcotte
    7. Boldy
    8. Dach
    9. Cozens
    10. Podkolzin

    5 years out it will look like this.

    I agree with you on Kakko. I’d take him first overall right now tbh. Byram also sounds like an absolute stud.

    Hughes does seem to be money though, will he drop to 4th best player?

    I know we keep hearing the Broberg chat, but saying he’ll be ranked 5th best from the draft is bold(y). Still, if the Oilers do end up selecting him and he at least lives up to the 8th overall selection I’ll be happy. I still think they’re more likely to trade down a few spots if they’re after him, which makes him even more of a bargain if you’re right.

  9. Nit64 says:

    Pescador: “Even with a new coach/GM, if Puljujarvi still wants out of Edmonton. The problem is likely in the dressing room”

    IF he still wants out THEN the problem is in the dressing room?

  10. russ99 says:

    The McDavid – Draisaitl pair puts up game changing numbers.

    I can’t see any reason why you’d put Jesse and his poor offensive zone instincts on that line and threaten their overall output, other than a bias towards the player due to his draft number.

    He needs development time, and the NHL is not a development league.

    The only way I see him on the Oilers is as part of a AHL soft minutes line with Marody and Gambardella and the only way we can do that is to get a heck of a lot better 3rd/4th line two way guys that a coach like Tippett relies on.

    I’d love to see him in the KHL, he gets the development time he needs, and the Oilers save on cap and retain his rights and don’t have to make a sell-low trade.

    The Oilers screwed up his development by rushing him and not giving him support in his first North American year, and some prospects just don’t turn out the way you think.

  11. jp says:

    Pescador: Interesting, I think A.Burakovsky would make sense as well.

    The 3.25M qualifying offer makes it tough. Agreed otherwise.

  12. ArmchairGM says:

    You knew this was coming, didn’t you: Puljujarvi’s “w/ McDavid” number without Lucic.

    First 3 years after draft, points/60 posted when playing with each teams top center:

    Laine: 2.83 (657:26 with Scheifele)
    Puljujarvi 2.70 (155:21 with McDavid w/o Lucic)
    Pastrnak: 2.13 (648:27 with Bergeron)
    Puljujarvi: 2.06 (407:45 with McDavid and Lucic)
    Rantanen: 2.02 (1632:30 with MacKinnon)
    Nylander: 1.82 (624:42 with Matthews)

    Most of Puljujarvi’s time with McDavid over the past 3 years included Lucic on the other wing. Now while Lucic didn’t hurt the young duo’s GF%, he suppressed their offence considerably. So when looking at the tiny sample size with Lucic removed, Puljujarvi’s scoring looks pretty good against his peers.

    I wrote this elsewhere too:

    Two things about replacing Draisaitl with Puljujarvi on McDavid’s wing: McDavid’s production doesn’t suffer and Puljujarvi produces nearly as well with McDavid as Draisaitl does. It looks like this in points-per-60 for 5v5 scoring over the last 3 seasons combined:

    Draisaitl with McDavid: 2.79 (1981:04)
    Puljujarvi with McDavid: 2.70 (155:21 – when Lucic is not on the other wing – w/ Maroon, Slepyshev, Caggiula, etc.)

    McDavid with Draisaitl: 3.24 (1981:04)
    McDavid with Puljujarvi: 3.24 (407:45 – includes TOI with Lucic)

    So it looks like removing Draisaitl from the 1st line and inserting Puljujarvi won’t affect the 1st line scoring rates at all.

  13. Pescador says:

    Nit64: IF he still wants out THEN the problem is in the dressing room?

    Ask Rishaug

  14. Bismarck says:

    Pescador,

    Can’t this be at least partially explained by his agent trying to negotiate his client’s next deal (even if misguidedly)?

  15. Pescador says:

    jp: The 3.25M qualifying offer makes it tough. Agreed otherwise.

    Thanks, I always forget about that pesky QO.
    The best solution is 29 – 97 – 98 per Russ99.

  16. Bag of Pucks says:

    ArmchairGM,

    Sample size is too small to reach the definitive conclusion you’re reaching imo.

  17. slopitch says:

    I dont hate the Broberg pick. The Oilers D has been hot garbage since Lubo and Souray were manning the point. D are so valuable in todays game. The top 4D get more minutes than forwards and spending bullets on D till the D is good isnt horrible – its what Nashville did and I believe its much harder to get top 4 D than to acquire wingers. The ETA of Broberg may be comparable to say Caufield and I like me some Swedish D.

  18. Rondo says:

    LT,

    You should get Mark Edward’s of Hockey Prospect on your show to discuss Broberg and others.

  19. stephen sheps says:

    Hemsky is a gangsta:
    I don’t have a subscription to The Athletic but I’m assuming Pronman has us taking Broberg?

    yup. sure does:

    (copied from the Pronman list)

    Edmonton: Philip Broberg, D, AIK-Allsvenskan
    The sense in the industry is the Oilers want immediate help, whether with the No. 8 pick or using the pick to get something. I think that rules out Podkolzin. And while Caufield seems like a player that could help the Oilers, teams are worried that, if he doesn’t truly hit, you might be waiting for him to develop for a while. Broberg will need a year or two, but he has the physical tools to move quickly to the NHL and makes sense on talent. Cozens is a possibility here, too, for that reason.

  20. jp says:

    Pescador: Thanks, I always forget about that pesky QO.
    The best solution is 29 – 97 – 98 per Russ99.

    Yeah too bad about the QO.

    And I don’t think Russ99 is on board with 29-97-98 lol.

    Further to Burakovsky, his boxcars are awfully similar to Connor Brown’s and folks are pretty down on him as an option. The numbers remind me a bit of Ryan Strome too.

    Is Burakovsky any better? I have no idea.

  21. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    zatch:
    Broberg seems like an awfully odd selection given Edmonton’s timelines and Prospect D depth. Can someone explain the logic?

    – He had #1 D upside… None of the F’s available have this upside. Maybe best skater in draft

    – So you take the best player. I have no opinion but that is the logic

  22. Nit64 says:

    Pescador: Ask Rishaug

    Asking if that’s what you heard. You orphaned the if in a different sentence. Wanted to know if he was saying that HE WANTS OUT or IF HE WANTS OUT THEN HERE’S A POSSIBLE REASON.

  23. Nit64 says:

    Bismarck:
    Pescador,

    Can’t this be at least partially explained by his agent trying to negotiate his client’s next deal (even if misguidedly)?

    \

    Guy is apparently in town working on what team asked him to work on. Does not sound like a flight risk. He and agent may still want more green and/or greener pastures.

  24. ArmchairGM says:

    zatch:
    Broberg seems like an awfully odd selection given Edmonton’s timelines and Prospect D depth. Can someone explain the logic?

    Really? He should be arriving just as Russell and Sekera are on their way out.

  25. dustrock says:

    Typical Oilers: let’s pick the guy we hope we can most easily rush to the NHL.

    Never change, Edmonton.

  26. Justenvogt says:

    zatch,

    You’d think it must be a case of BPA according to their scouts. Edm needs forwards this year and the pick (Fwd or D) won’t be ready for a yr or 2 anyway. Can’t have enough good D in the system and Broberg checks a lot of boxes including exceptional skating. Also, we have McD for 7 yrs, that is the window, next yr is a transition year – get rid of $ and dead weight. Go for it in 2020 and beyond, IMO.

  27. ArmchairGM says:

    russ99:
    The McDavid – Draisaitl pair puts up game changing numbers.

    I can’t see any reason why you’d put Jesse and his poor offensive zone instincts on that line and threaten their overall output, other than a bias towards the player due to his draft number.

    He needs development time, and the NHL is not a development league.

    The only way I see him on the Oilers is as part of a AHL soft minutes line with Marody and Gambardella and the only way we can do that is to get a heck of a lot better 3rd/4th line two way guys that a coach like Tippett relies on.

    I’d love to see him in the KHL, he gets the development time he needs, and the Oilers save on cap and retain his rights and don’t have to make a sell-low trade.

    The Oilers screwed up his development by rushing him and not giving him support in his first North American year, and some prospects just don’t turn out the way you think.

    Two things about replacing Draisaitl with Puljujarvi on McDavid’s wing: McDavid’s production doesn’t suffer and Puljujarvi produces nearly as well with McDavid as Draisaitl does. It looks like this in points-per-60 for 5v5 scoring over the last 3 seasons combined:

    Draisaitl with McDavid: 2.79 (1981:04)
    Puljujarvi with McDavid: 2.70 (155:21 – when Lucic is not on the other wing – w/ Maroon, Slepyshev, Caggiula, etc.)

    McDavid with Draisaitl: 3.24 (1981:04)
    McDavid with Puljujarvi: 3.24 (407:45 – includes TOI with Lucic)

    So it looks like removing Draisaitl from the 1st line and inserting Puljujarvi won’t affect the 1st line scoring rates at all.

  28. GBandQ says:

    Nit64: IF he still wants out THEN the problem is in the dressing room?

    Guys, i’ve got it sorted. What Rishaug meant was there’s a problem WITH the dressing room. The door is real finicky and JP has a hard time getting in/out. 🙂

  29. Primetime says:

    ArmchairGM: Really? He should be arriving just as Russell and Sekera are on their way out.

    Sure, but you could argue Jones and Samurokov are already at the door trying to get in to that house. Meanwhile, the forward house is an abandoned shack on the corner…no one in it, and no one at the door…

  30. zatch says:

    Primetime,

    I guess we’d need to see some trades from that depth. Have to assume one of Bouchard, Jones, Samurokov and Bear will be gone within 2 years. Maybe 2.

  31. jp says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    ArmchairGM,

    Sample size is too small to reach the definitive conclusion you’re reaching imo.

    I agree, but Puljujarvi’s numbers in the larger sample are solid too. It’s worth a trial run at least IMO (29-97-98 I mean, not hoping that JP can replace Draisaitl on the top line without a drop off).

    It would be really interesting if there’s anything to the reports/rumors that McDavid doesn’t like playing with JP given his numbers with JP don’t drop off relative to Draisaitl.

  32. LadiesloveSmid says:

    There was a game where Draisaitl-97-Pulju was a line for about a period, Pulju’s forecheck got him an assist & then he missed a check the other way later so he was demoted.

    Pretty easy to see why he’s frustrated, and I don’t know why Rattie/Yamamoto were getting more feature time.

    Staple him to a GD good centre! Don’t pull him off after a 3 shifts.

  33. godot10 says:

    Broberg has incredible upside potential, but he comes with more risk. He is a project. He dominated against his peers this year, but struggled against men.

    So he needs at least one more year in Sweden, probably two, to establish himself there, and then probably a year in the AHL. The Lagesson/Klefbom development path.

    I think will prefer at least one of the forwards who will be available at #8OV.

    I like Broberg, but he is a prospect who must not be rushed. Edmonton is an organization who screwed up Yakupov and Puljujarvi. Even though two top people have changed, I don’t completely trust the Oilers yet.

    I’d prefer picking guys who are impossible…er…less likely to screw up, like Krebs or Cozens.

  34. ArmchairGM says:

    Primetime: Sure, but you could argue Jones and Samurokov are already at the door trying to get in to that house.Meanwhile, the forward house is an abandoned shack on the corner…no one in it, and no one at the door…

    As LT would say, expect 1 of 3 to arrive. I would take a forward, but I can understand Holland thinking otherwise. Gives him some added leverage with Nurse’s next contract too.

  35. godot10 says:

    If the Oilers keep Puljujarvi, they should give him his own line….the third line.

    My model:

    xxx, McDavid, Draisaitl
    JT MIller, Nugent-Hopkins, Gagner (JT Miller or whatever Tampa forward we can get)
    Khaira, xxx, Puljujarvi
    Gamberdella, Cave, Kassian
    Lucic, Currie

  36. Primetime says:

    ArmchairGM: As LT would say, expect 1 of 3 to arrive. I would take a forward, but I can understand Holland thinking otherwise. Gives him some added leverage with Nurse’s next contract too.

    I agree, just saying the argument against it. But if Holland sees “Lidstrom like” potential (not saying its there), then you take him anyway and deal with the consequences later

  37. russ99 says:

    ArmchairGM,

    Sample size. Do we really want to find out if that’s true at the expense of our only line that scores at a predictable rate?

    Also, we saw last season what a mirage training camp production playing vs. AHL rosters looks like.

  38. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Primetime: Sure, but you could argue Jones and Samurokov are already at the door trying to get in to that house.Meanwhile, the forward house is an abandoned shack on the corner…no one in it, and no one at the door…

    – Meh: If we had better D, our Fs would score more. In the 24 games we had all of Sek Klef, Nurse, Larsson, we were scoring at 3 G/P clip.

    – If Broberg has #1 upside, you take a D pool of Broberg, Bouchard, Samurokov, Jones, Bear, Lagesson, and let scoring come from better D, or trade some D for Fs if need be…

  39. godot10 says:

    Primetime: I agree, just saying the argument against it.But if Holland sees “Lidstrom like” potential (not saying its there), then you take him anyway and deal with the consequences later

    Broberg is not a Lidstrom-type. He is a Karlsson-type. He is a rover.

  40. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Pescador,

    “Even with a new coach/GM, if Puljujarvi still wants out of Edmonton. The problem is likely in the dressing room”
    There something in the water bottle

    There were noises that both McDavid and Draisaitl asked to not have JP on their lines.

    Stauffer alluded to it a few times.

    If those two don’t want him, then its probably time to move on.

    It also doesn’t show that well on those two if its true, but I’ve never been a 20-something NHL star/superstar so I don’t know the dynamic.

    They may be right.

  41. slopitch says:

    dustrock:
    Typical Oilers: let’s pick the guy we hope we can most easily rush to the NHL.

    Never change, Edmonton.

    In regards to Broberg? Id question Pronman on that statement rather than bash the Oilers for a pick they havent made. 90% of the time D take longer than F. That said, the opinion on Caufield could be valid.

    Take the BPA. The player wont help in 2019-20.

  42. barry.moore23 says:

    Hemsky is a gangsta:
    I don’t have a subscription to The Athletic but I’m assuming Pronman has us taking Broberg?

    Get a subscription. It’s a great value. The wife will never know 🙂

  43. godot10 says:

    Bad coaches leave/create divided locker rooms. Eakins left one. McLellan left one.

    I think Thornton kept the San Jose room together when McLellan was there.

    Rob Blake was in San Jose only for the first two years of McLellan’s tenure. I think he is going to have buyer’s remorse pretty soon.

  44. slopitch says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Pescador,

    “Even with a new coach/GM, if Puljujarvi still wants out of Edmonton. The problem is likely in the dressing room”
    There something in the water bottle

    There were noises that both McDavid and Draisaitl asked to not have JP on their lines.

    Stauffer alluded to it a few times.

    If those two don’t want him, then its probably time to move on.

    It also doesn’t show that well on those two if its true.

    It also doesnt show well on JP.

  45. ArmchairGM says:

    jp: Yeah too bad about the QO.

    And I don’t think Russ99 is on board with 29-97-98 lol.

    Further to Burakovsky, his boxcars are awfully similar to Connor Brown’s and folks are pretty down on him as an option. The numbers remind me a bit of Ryan Strome too.

    Is Burakovsky any better? I have no idea.

    Look at the underlying stats, not the boxcars.

  46. godot10 says:

    slopitch: It also doesnt show well on JP.

    McLellan had a lot of whipping boys he ran out of town during his tenure. This method of coaching creates divided locker rooms, unless the players unify against their coach, and stick together in spite of him.

    If a young player is cast out of the group, it is more likely than not that it is not the young players’ fault.

  47. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    slopitch: It also doesnt show well on JP.

    – It was the same thing with Yak: he was a lost puppy dog: the only C’s that gave him love were the vets who mentored him and had chem. Strome talked a lot about mentoring Pool, but Strome couldn’t score a lick. Jar-RNH-Pool did good things together untill Jar got hurt

    – RNH talked about frustration of the line shuffles

  48. Primetime says:

    godot10:
    Bad coaches leave/create divided locker rooms.Eakins left one.McLellan left one.

    I think Thornton kept the San Jose room together when McLellan was there.

    Rob Blake was in San Jose only for the first two years of McLellan’s tenure.I think he is going to have buyer’s remorse pretty soon.

    Jumbo Joe certainly did not have a lot of great things to say after he left. Burns seemed to really like him though,..

  49. ArmchairGM says:

    russ99:
    ArmchairGM,

    Sample size. Do we really want to find out if that’s true at the expense of our only line that scores at a predictable rate?

    It wouldn’t be our only scoring line though – Draisaitl + Nuge are wicked together.

  50. Jethro Tull says:

    “If I’m Ken Holland, and can convince Puljujarvi to return, I’d bring up the idea of running the big Finn with McDavid for at least 250 minutes 5-on-5 next season. At the very least, he’d have increased trade value next summer.”

    Respectfully disagree, LT. This is what got us in trouble with Cags and Schultz; promising gravy time to players not ready/good enough.

    You want to split a dressing room? There’s how you do it. It alienates the guys that ARE good enough or working hard or worse, doing both and getting little back. Kassian did well there. You’re going to tell him he’s lost his chance? Because why? He’s a great example of buckling down and putting in the hard yards.

    And once again, it would be the GM dictating to the coach how to run the ice. Things based on things other than winning.

    Now, we say we like to play the slow game here. That is now JP having to accept his soft minutes on the 3rd line and moving up when the opportunity is there, either through injury or during the game. And he should be killing the 3rd line soft parade.

    And increased value? All he’d have done is prove he could play with McDavid and get zoomed. The only player in the world to not manage that is Lucic. We’re not the only people to look at analytics……

  51. dustrock says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Pescador,

    “Even with a new coach/GM, if Puljujarvi still wants out of Edmonton. The problem is likely in the dressing room”
    There something in the water bottle

    There were noises that both McDavid and Draisaitl asked to not have JP on their lines.

    Stauffer alluded to it a few times.

    If those two don’t want him, then its probably time to move on.

    It also doesn’t show that well on those two if its true, but I’ve never been a 20-something NHL star/superstar so I don’t know the dynamic.

    They may be right.

    Great post.

    I mentioned this at the start of last season. One would think if the reigning MVP wanted the former WJHC MVP on his line rather than Ty Frickin’ Rattie or Josh Currie, it would happen.

    Ditto with Draisaitl.

    Maybe they’re both divas. Maybe Puljujarvi is a huge asshole but is goofy and loveable in public, wouldn’t be the first time.

    Maybe they didn’t know how to play with him.

    This is the kind of stuff which would be revealing that we’ll never be privy to.

  52. stephen sheps says:

    godot10: Khaira, xxx, Puljujarvi

    At this point, why would you think JP is ready to drive his own line and create offence? Not trying to be a dick, just genuinely trying to understand your point of view. Is it just simply the ‘earn it, we’re not gifting you minutes because of pedigree’ idea? Not sure I buy that.

    If the underlying numbers suggest JP and McDavid work well together, why would you not want to try it for 25 games and let them develop chemistry?

    Apropos of not these players, but one of the things Nuge said in his exit interview (I believe) that resonated with me was the constant line shuffling was getting to him. I think for a younger player to succeed, that player needs to be put in the best possible position to actually be successful. Since McDavid can make Maroon and Kassian look like borderline first line wingers, why not see if he can establish consistent chemistry and confidence with consistent minutes with McDavid?

    Woodguy v2.0: There were noises that both McDavid and Draisaitl asked to not have JP on their lines.

    Stauffer alluded to it a few times.

    If those two don’t want him, then its probably time to move on.

    It also doesn’t show that well on those two if its true, but I’ve never been a 20-something NHL star/superstar so I don’t know the dynamic.

    They may be right.

    If those two don’t want him, honestly they need to figure out some of their own stuff. McDavid is the captain of the team. That comes with more than a modicum of responsibility to lead, both by example, (actions in the locker room – clearly he’s giving his all when he’s on the ice) and with words. If he’s expressed any sort of ‘I won’t play with JP’ sentiment, that’s something he’s got to work on and get over, particularly if there’s the potential for it to benefit the team. The team has to come first.

    Then again, if those two don’t want him, maybe they are putting the team first. Time will tell.

    Edit to add – I was and obviously still am president of the Yakupov appreciation society, so it’s well known that I have a ton of patience with struggling lottery picks who don’t seem to get it. That said, I don’t have the same feelings about JP that I had for Yak (not that my feelings mean a damn thing of course), so I also fully understand flipping him if that’s the best thing for player and team. It’s a tricky situation for both sides here, but if he is an Oiler when camp breaks and the regular season starts, I want to see him actually set up for success, something I don’t think has happened in the previous seasons. Some of that is also on JP himself (language skills, battling with confidence issues), some of it is on poor and weird coaching decisions (sudden demotions after a single mistake, rarely getting more than 8-10 minutes a game), some of that is on weird management interference (allegedly). At the end of the day, this season feels a lot like it’s a put up or shut up year for JP. Hopefully he figures it out.

  53. Pescador says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Pescador,

    “Even with a new coach/GM, if Puljujarvi still wants out of Edmonton. The problem is likely in the dressing room”
    There something in the water bottle

    There were noises that both McDavid and Draisaitl asked to not have JP on their lines.

    Stauffer alluded to it a few times.

    If those two don’t want him, then its probably time to move on.

    It also doesn’t show that well on those two if its true, but I’ve never been a 20-something NHL star/superstar so I don’t know the dynamic.

    They may be right.

    This situation is kind of like you’re prototypical Numbers vs. Eye test debate isn’t it?
    The numbers tell us that Jesse has produced well on McDavid’s wing, maybe he’s even the best option currently on the roster in terms of RW production.
    When you watch 98 on the ice, he (still) makes alot of rookie mistakes. He is often in the wrong position, goes offside too much & frequently looks off decent pass options in favour of carrying the puck up ice. This often results in a Opposition blue line turn overs & errant passes.
    It’s not hard to see why these mistakes frustrate linemates and coaches alike, this frequently lands 98 on the bench or in the pressbox. The players loses confidence and there are no easy answers.
    Such a shame because I believe Puljujarvi is going to figure it out one day but it appears everyone (player, club & fans) has run out of patience.

  54. gogliano says:

    Woodguy v2.0:

    There were noises that both McDavid and Draisaitl asked to not have JP on their lines.

    Stauffer alluded to it a few times.

    If those two don’t want him, then its probably time to move on.

    It also doesn’t show that well on those two if its true, but I’ve never been a 20-something NHL star/superstar so I don’t know the dynamic.

    They may be right.

    There’s definitely been smoke.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if the issue is that JP is a player who likes ownership of the puck in the offensive zone, often in a solo kind of way — think how many times he takes the low percentage shot on goal from distance — and McDavid & Draisatl want to play a different game. Given the additional factors involved (JP is a young star in Finland and may not be as comfortable with giving in to the two stars as, say, Rattie), I could see that being a source of long term concern.

    All this is conjecture on the basis of some of those Stauffer quotes and circumstantial evidence, but it might just be a bad long term fit in terms of style & personalities.

  55. dustrock says:

    Primetime: Jumbo Joe certainly did not have a lot of great things to say after he left.Burns seemed to really like him though,..

    This often gets mentioned. I think this was rock bottom for a franchise that never could get to the Finals.

    Here’s the actual quotes:

    McLellan:

    “Our coaching staff will come under that review, but I have to do my own personal review too,” he said. “I’m going to have my family together for the first time on Tuesday for a long time. My son will be back. We’ll get a chance to sit down and I’ll look at the impact that I think I’ve had and can have moving forward. We’ll go from there.”

    Then he added: “I still feel close to the group that’s in the locker room, of course. We’ll see what happens.”

    Thornton: Thornton was asked if a coaching change is necessary.

    “I have no idea,” the former captain told reporters. “Todd has to talk to his family. Maybe he should talk to this family as well in here. We’ll see what happens.”

    Was also the same year Thornton told Doug Wilson to “shut his mouth”.

  56. Pescador says:

    godot10:
    Broberg is a rover.

    Rickithebear offers his opinion on the Oilers potentially drafting Broberg;
    https://youtu.be/YexQcXnVSzg

  57. jp says:

    ArmchairGM: Look at the underlying stats, not the boxcars.

    What am I looking for? I had a quick scan of Burakovsky and Brown on PuckIQ and Natural Stat Trick. I didn’t see anything striking one way or the other.

  58. Nit64 says:

    GBandQ: Guys, i’ve got it sorted. What Rishaug meant was there’s a problem WITH the dressing room. The door is real finicky and JP has a hard time getting in/out.

    Sure and Hermsky really had a knack for the finicky door at Northlands. Teammates counted on that. That’s why he was first off the ice.

  59. flyfish1168 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Pescador,

    “Even with a new coach/GM, if Puljujarvi still wants out of Edmonton. The problem is likely in the dressing room”
    There something in the water bottle

    There were noises that both McDavid and Draisaitl asked to not have JP on their lines.

    Stauffer alluded to it a few times.

    If those two don’t want him, then its probably time to move on.

    It also doesn’t show that well on those two if its true, but I’ve never been a 20-something NHL star/superstar so I don’t know the dynamic.

    They may be right.

    I’m sad for JP if there is some truth to this. He seems like a very likeable person. Would be nice if someone from the core group steps up for him. Everyone needs a helping hand sometimes.

  60. Jordan says:

    Nit64: Sure and Hermsky really had a knack for the finicky door at Northlands. Teammates counted on that. That’s why he was first off the ice.

    *slow clap*

  61. jp says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    There was a game where Draisaitl-97-Pulju was a line for about a period, Pulju’s forecheck got him an assist & then he missed a check the other way later so he was demoted.

    Pretty easy to see why he’s frustrated, and I don’t know why Rattie/Yamamoto were getting more feature time.

    Staple him to a GD good centre! Don’t pull him off after a 3 shifts.

    The tough thing about Puljujarvi is that his numbers with anyone other than McDavid are actually quite bad.

    Career with:
    Nuge (399min) 1.05 P/60
    Strome (307min) 0.98
    Draisaitl (283min) 1.48
    Letestu/Brodziak/Cave/Malone/Lander (~180min) 0.0

  62. J-Bo says:

    I just don’t think you can give a guy top line minutes based on numbers. In theory it looks fine, but in practice it messes with your whole organization. If Tippett/Holland did that, it would set a bad precedent on the chance that it works. Think of it this way: Say TSN 1260 hires this new guy who they think has tons of potential and they give him a late night slot of say 10-12. He does okay at first and then his ratings really start to dip. Lets say, back when he was first starting and had some momentum they put him on with Gregor for a couple of hours a day when Strudwick was away and he did well. Now, how would the office environment be if they dropped Strudwick from the show three days a week and put this guy on it just to salvage his potential. It might work, but Strudwick and a handful of others would be up in arms and the station overall could lose a lot more then what they gained. Plus, we all love Strudwick and would be upset not to hear him! Lol.

  63. godot10 says:

    stephen sheps: At this point, why would you think JP is ready to drive his own line and create offence? Not trying to be a dick, just genuinely trying to understand your point of view. Is it just simply the ‘earn it, we’re not gifting you minutes because of pedigree’ idea? Not sure I buy that.

    I’m trying to win games, and develop a player at the same time. Puljujarvi is an NHL player. I’m going to slot him where I think he can be successful, and progress at the same time, Slot him where i don’t have to move him, and slot him in a non-absolutely-critical role. where his mistakes are not on the critical path for winning and losing.

    McDavid’s winger is on the critical path. I might not be able to sustain playing Puljujarvi there.

  64. David says:

    godot10: Broberg is not a Lidstrom-type.He is a Karlsson-type.He is a rover.

    Uh-oh, that will awake Mr. Thebear

  65. David says:

    Pescador: Rickithebear offers his opinion on the Oilers potentially drafting Broberg;
    https://youtu.be/YexQcXnVSzg

    Should have read the whole thread

  66. stephen sheps says:

    godot10: I’m trying to win games, and develop a player at the same time.Puljujarvi is an NHL player.I’m going to slot him where I think he can be successful, and progress at the same time,Slot him where i don’t have to move him, and slot him in a non-absolutely-critical role. where his mistakes are not on the critical path for winning and losing.

    McDavid’s winger is on the critical path.I might not be able to sustain playing Puljujarvi there.

    Thanks Godot. The more I think about it, the more this idea actually makes sense, assuming of course that the team finds a reasonable 3C to play exactly the kind of minutes you’re describing. Maybe that is Marody? Maybe that’s someone from outside the organization. Could Khaira-Marody-JP work as a ‘kid line’ in the way that the Gelinas-Murphy-Graves worked? (though if McCurdy is around today – who took draws on that line? none of those players were natural Centres)

  67. Reja says:

    ArmchairGM: Really? He should be arriving just as Russell and Sekera are on their way out.

    If we have to wait for a D prospect we haven’t drafted yet to get rid of Russell and Sekera to a lesser extent that are eating up serious cap for what they bring Holland won’t last as long as Pete.

  68. J-Bo says:

    Also Lowetide, your projected roster and lines from a couple of days ago (Blood on the Tracks) was stellar! An excellent example of what we should expect come fall!!

  69. Alpine says:

    Drai pretty much can’t play with anyone not named McDavid or Hall so if he’s being picky about linemates, then maybe he needs to look in the mirror. He had one hot streak in the playoffs and since then he gets outscored heavily without Connor on his line. Even Nuge does better in goal share than Leon.

  70. Tapdog says:

    gogliano: There’s definitely been smoke.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if the issue is that JP is a player who likes ownership of the puck in the offensive zone, often in a solo kind of way — think how many times he takes the low percentage shot on goal from distance — and McDavid & Draisatl want to play a different game.Given the additional factors involved (JP is a young star in Finland and may not be as comfortable with giving in to the two stars as, say, Rattie), I could see that being a source of long term concern.

    All this is conjecture on the basis of some of those Stauffer quotes and circumstantial evidence, but it might just be a bad long term fit in terms of style & personalities.

    This I agree with, enough with trying to place a square peg in a round hole. He wants to move on, McD, Drai prefer not to have him on the line..The option is play him with a solid 3rd line center who may draw something out of him or cut bait and move on. Get the best you can and stop having this affect the team. Good gord we need to have this team moving in a good direction from the word go this year.,

  71. Primetime says:

    I have no idea of cost, and I know there are foot speed issues…but would a year of JP being stapled to a veteran like Jason Spezza help him and the organization immensely? Certainly not signing him longterm, but a 1 year mentorship for the longterm good of the player and club?

  72. Nit64 says:

    Anyone else seeing all posts and comments without logging in?

  73. Tapdog says:

    Nit64,

    I have to log in to see everything.

  74. Nit64 says:

    Tapdog:
    Nit64,

    I have to log in to see everything.

    So did I. For years. Until Yesterday.

  75. Munny says:

    Nit64:
    Anyone else seeing all posts and comments without logging in?

    It’s happened for me a few times over the last two months.

  76. Nit64 says:

    Munny: It’s happened for me a few times over the last two months.

    OK. We’ll wait for the summer move for the real solution.

  77. Halfwise says:

    Munny: It’s happened for me a few times over the last two months.

    A minor miracle.

    We’ve each developed Hemsky-level skills in opening the LT site door, mind you.

  78. GMB3 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – He had #1 D upside… None of the F’s available have this upside. Maybe best skater in draft

    – So you take the best player.I have no opinion but that is the logic

    I’m not sure he has 1D upside, his numbers don’t scream 1D. If we are going to pick Broberg, I wouldn’t hate trading down and taking Seider instead. Sample size alert but he was phenomenal in the worlds, he’s right handed, he’s fast.

    I’ve read both on this blog and from various scouting bloggers in the past that players who come from non-traditional hockey markets haven’t played the same level of competition as their peers in Canada/USA/Sweden/Finland, therefore not as polished as players from these countries. That was some of the rationale behind Dominik Bokk being rated as highly as he was, and I’ve heard both Draisaitl and Kopitar referenced in this regard.

  79. godot10 says:

    Primetime:
    I have no idea of cost, and I know there are foot speed issues…but would a year of JP being stapled to a veteran like Jason Spezza help him and the organization immensely?Certainly not signing him longterm, but a 1 year mentorship for the longterm good of the player and club?

    Spezza is slow. Like Lucic and Gagner, he does not penalty kill. All are plus 30. Adding offense only players who don’t PK only adds to the workload and pressure on McDavid and Draisaitl.
    Puljujarvi also does not PK at the moment.

    Find players who lessen the workload and pressure on McDavid and Draisaitl, not who add to it.

  80. Side says:

    Nit64:
    Anyone else seeing all posts and comments without logging in?

    Accessing new content on LT’s site makes me feel like I’m a VIP at an exclusive club. Where I need to know the entrance is in the alley and I need to know the secret knock and password to get in.

  81. GMB3 says:

    dustrock: Great post.

    I mentioned this at the start of last season.One would think if the reigning MVP wanted the former WJHC MVP on his line rather than Ty Frickin’ Rattie or Josh Currie, it would happen.

    Ditto with Draisaitl.

    Maybe they’re both divas.Maybe Puljujarvi is a huge asshole but is goofy and loveable in public, wouldn’t be the first time.

    Maybe they didn’t know how to play with him.

    This is the kind of stuff which would be revealing that we’ll never be privy to.

    I imagine it’s probably less a clashing of personalities and more a frustration with JP being nearly impossible to play with. When JP gains the zone driving wide, seems more often than not he flicks a muffin at the goaltender. Bam, possession gone.

    Hit him in stride with a pass in the neutral zone? He bobbles the puck far too often for someone who’s hands were supposed to be such a plus in his draft year.

    He doesn’t go to the net like Maroon did on that line, and he rarely seems to find himself in the slot ready for a pass like someone who has this supposed great shot. There was a run of games where I thought he was putting himself into better positions to score, but it seemed like his ice time would get cut because of various mistakes in other facets on the game, and he never could build on it.

    His skating has been exposed at the NHL lever (this may have to do with his hips, I potentially have this same issue, and it’s affected both my training and sprinting).

    I certainly think some of these issues are confidence though. I honestly recommend watching his draft year highlights from Finland. He doesn’t even look like the same player. His puckhandling ability looks phenomenal. I think some of the skating issues has to do with his first step quickness and agility, aspects that are more relevant in the NA game on the smaller ice.

    The Oilers saw his physical tools and thought they drafted a complete player who was ready to step into the NHL. He turned out to be more raw, more of a project than I think almost anyone in the hockey world thought he would be. The Oilers bungled his development as a result.

  82. GMB3 says:

    I know that a player needs to show results to warrant time in the top 6 and more time on the ice, but when your struggling with your confidence it’s difficult to feel comfortable when it seems like the rug gets pulled from beneath your feet as soon as you make a mistake.

    JP needed a coach who was comfortable with letting him make mistakes, and that should have been in Finland or the AHL.

    Fucking Oilers

  83. Yeti says:

    stephen sheps: At the end of the day, this season feels a lot like it’s a put up or shut up year for JP. Hopefully he figures it out.

    All it would take is a teaspoon of water in his whisky and he’d be a different player – scientifically proven!

  84. jp says:

    GMB3: I’m not sure he has 1D upside, his numbers don’t scream 1D. If we are going to pick Broberg, I wouldn’t hate trading down and taking Seider instead. Sample size alert but he was phenomenal in the worlds, he’s right handed, he’s fast.

    FWIW Lidstrom was drafted in the 3rd round as a 19 year old after scoring 19-0-2-2 in the SEL. Karlsson played his draft year in the Jrs with a 7-1-0-1 cup of coffee in the SEL.

    This means little for projecting Broberg, but 1D very often don’t look like 1D on draft day.

    Agree Seider looks like a nice prospect though.

  85. stephen sheps says:

    Yeti,

    a teaspoon might also be too much. we don’t want to wreck him!

  86. GMB3 says:

    godot10: Spezza is slow.Like Lucic and Gagner, he does not penalty kill. All are plus 30. Adding offense only players who don’t PK only adds to the workload and pressure on McDavid and Draisaitl.
    Puljujarvi also does not PK at the moment.

    Find players who lessen the workload and pressure on McDavid and Draisaitl, not who add to it.

    Fully agree with this. I was thinking about what you said a couple days ago, about avoiding drafting someone to be a pure shooter for those players, and instead finding a player with a more complete skill set that compliments their game(s), and I think you’re right. It’s part of the reason I have high hopes for Benson.

  87. Ryan says:

    Rondo:
    Rondo,

    The similarities are different.

    https://www.tsn.ca/craig-s-list-caufield-scores-his-way-into-top-5-1.1316942

    https://www.hockeyprospect.com/hockeyprospect-com-final-2019-nhl-draft-top-31-ranking/

    Wow, Button has Holden in the top four.

    I still think that the Wonky G/A ratio makes me nervous along with the diminutive stature.

    Hope he’s durable, has supreme edges and skates like Patrick Kane or Debrincat.

  88. GMB3 says:

    jp: FWIW Lidstrom was drafted in the 3rd round as a 19 year old after scoring 19-0-2-2 in the SEL. Karlsson played his draft year in the Jrs with a 7-1-0-1 cup of coffee in the SEL.

    This means little for projecting Broberg, but 1D very often don’t look like 1D on draft day.

    Agree Seider looks like a nice prospect too though.

    Yeah that’s true, I remember Karlsson putting up pedestrian numbers. I feel like it’s both the numbers and a combination of things I’ve read from various scouting services and Swedish posters on an assortment of forums. That he’s a fairly north-south player who doesn’t have Karlssons creativity or vision.

    You could be totally correct though, the opportunity awarded to 17 year old players in pro leagues certainly can obscure their offensive potential in comparison to guys playing in the CHL.

  89. Yeti says:

    If Button’s list holds true we could grab Puistola in the second round. Then I’d be super happy and would drink whisky without ice or water just for the hell of it, science be damned.

  90. Coiler says:

    GMB3:
    I know that a player needs to show results to warrant time in the top 6 and more time on the ice, but when your struggling with your confidence it’s difficult to feel comfortable when it seems like the rug gets pulled from beneath your feet as soon as you make a mistake.

    JP needed a coach who was comfortable with letting him make mistakes, and that should have been in Finland or the AHL.

    Fucking Oilers

    Indeed. Special shout out to Chiarelli and his promises to certain player agents.

  91. who says:

    slopitch:
    I dont hate the Broberg pick. The Oilers D has been hot garbage since Lubo and Souray were manning the point. D are so valuable in todays game. The top 4D get more minutes than forwards and spending bullets on D till the D is good isnt horrible – its what Nashville did and I believe its much harder to get top 4 D than to acquire wingers. The ETA of Broberg may be comparable to say Caufield and I like me some Swedish D.

    If the Oilers do draft Broberg then the obvious move is Klefbom for Ehlers, hopefully Ehlers plus.
    They have Sekera and Russell to cover Klefboms minutes till some of the young leftys are ready.
    Seems simpler just to draft a forward, but what do I know.

  92. Oil2Oilers says:

    Button has Cozens at #14 on his list with the comment;

    “2018 WHL top rookie ranked 1st in skating tests at 2019 CHL Prospects Game”

    Run don’t walk to the podium if young man is available at #8

  93. godot10 says:

    who: If the Oilers do draft Broberg then the obvious move is Klefbom for Ehlers, hopefully Ehlers plus.
    They have Sekera and Russell to cover Klefboms minutes till some of the young leftys are ready.
    Seems simpler just to draft a forward, but what do I know.

    The earliest Broberg will be ready is draft + 3. And then likely only on the 3rd pair.

    Klefbom and Nurse are critical to near team Oilers competitiveness. Trade either, and one might as well trade McDavid already and start over.

  94. VanIsleOil says:

    Teenage Wasteland is what has happened to a lot of our draft picks…..maybe with Holland on board it will become:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1hIwB97p3r0
    Enjoy the master… and Mr Fripp

  95. ArmchairGM says:

    J-Bo:
    Also Lowetide, your projected roster and lines from a couple of days ago (Blood on the Tracks) was stellar! An excellent example of what we should expect come fall!!

    Meh. I don’t think that lineup makes the playoffs.

  96. jp says:

    GMB3: Yeah that’s true, I remember Karlsson putting up pedestrian numbers. I feel like it’s both the numbers and a combination of things I’ve read from various scouting services and Swedish posters on an assortment of forums. That he’s a fairly north-south player who doesn’t have Karlssons creativity or vision.

    You could be totally correct though, the opportunity awarded to 17 year old players in pro leagues certainly can obscure their offensive potential in comparison to guys playing in the CHL.

    It’s definitely much easier to compare apples to apples in the CHL.

    And I agree no one should be (or is) expecting Karlsson type offense out of Broberg. That doesn’t mean he couldn’t still develop into a top D. I feel like I’ve read nice things about him.

    FWIW (again) in Karlsson’s draft year he scored 38-13-24-37 in the SwedishU20 league, 7-1-0-1 in the SHL and was 6-0-7-7 at the World U18.

    Broberg this year was 8-2-6-8 in the SwedishU20, 41-2-7-9 in the Swedish 2nd league, and 7-2-4-6 at the World U18.

    Surprisingly similar actually. The scouting reports on EliteProspects give a nice hint of his upside: https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/349467/philip-broberg

    Sounds like a real good prospect, whoever gets him.

  97. russ99 says:

    godot10,

    The only reasoning I can think of to select a LHD at #8 is that we’re likely going to lose a young D in the expansion draft, and this one on particular really can skate.

    I’d love to get a peek at Holland’s year 3 and year 4 board.

  98. pts2pndr says:

    Primetime: Sure, but you could argue Jones and Samurokov are already at the door trying to get in to that house.Meanwhile, the forward house is an abandoned shack on the corner…no one in it, and no one at the door…

    Some people would argue you have Benson, Yamamoto and JP. Just behind them are Maksimov and McLeod.

  99. RonnieB says:

    who: If the Oilers do draft Broberg then the obvious move is Klefbom for Ehlers, hopefully Ehlers plus.
    They have Sekera and Russell to cover Klefboms minutes till some of the young leftys are ready.
    Seems simpler just to draft a forward, but what do I know.

    Trade a top pairing D ( especially when you don’t have a replacement in-house ) for a 2nd line winger who disappears in the playoffs ? No thanks.

  100. russ99 says:

    ArmchairGM,

    I really like Connolly and Glendening, and to a lesser extent Elliott but we need to dump Lucic and do something about the defense. If Larsson gets hurt, we’re in a world of hurt on the right side where either a kid has to step up or someone has to play their off side who’s not used to doing that.

    I’d take what LT has and trade Lucic at 50% retained for a winger, trade Benning + for Brown, buy out Sekera, sign/trade for a better #2 RHD option (using Sekera cap savings) that will allow us to eventually trade Larsson, and put Russell on his natural left side third pair as first man back with a young D – assume Jones but also could be Persson. Also, consider moving Gagner if we can get cap relief.

    That could be a playoff team.

  101. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    RonnieB,

    Ehlers was playing with a broken foot in the playoffs. Ebs looked soft in 16/17 and had a handsome playoffs this year. One season a career does not make.

    That said, I’d be awful leery to make that trade. As Godot pointed out above, we don’t have the depth to play roster whack’a’mole.

    We’re shopping in the bargain bin for another couple years while we wait for the cap to rise and old contacts to fall off the books.

  102. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    russ99,

    Rusty is the first guy you trade for cap space. He’s the last guy you want to mentor rookies. Rej is ideally suited to that role, as well as play up the roster as injury cover.

  103. Lowetide says:

    J-Bo:
    Also Lowetide, your projected roster and lines from a couple of days ago (Blood on the Tracks) was stellar! An excellent example of what we should expect come fall!!

    Thanks, I think it’s realistic and that was the goal.

  104. Ben says:

    Unless one of the top 4 (suggesting Byram and Turcotte here) slide, this would be a good year to trade back a few spots. Add a 2nd, use it for forward depth or as trade currency.

    I didn’t totally hate the Petrovic trade at the time, but lighting that 3rd rounder on fire now just seems particularly galling.

  105. RonnieB says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey,

    I think i read somewhere that he played game 6 with a broken leg.
    Edit: He is quoted in the press as saying he suffered a fractured leg when he blocked a shot near the end of Game 5.

    Did he have a broken leg last year also when he had zero goals in 15 games ?

  106. OriginalPouzar says:

    russ99:
    The McDavid – Draisaitl pair puts up game changing numbers.

    I can’t see any reason why you’d put Jesse and his poor offensive zone instincts on that line and threaten their overall output, other than a bias towards the player due to his draft number.

    He needs development time, and the NHL is not a development league.

    The only way I see him on the Oilers is as part of a AHL soft minutes line with Marody and Gambardella and the only way we can do that is to get a heck of a lot better 3rd/4th line two way guys that a coach like Tippett relies on.

    I’d love to see him in the KHL, he gets the development time he needs, and the Oilers save on cap and retain his rights and don’t have to make a sell-low trade.

    The Oilers screwed up his development by rushing him and not giving him support in his first North American year, and some prospects just don’t turn out the way you think.

    1) The numbers have been posted here and I believe they show that McDavid’s scoring rates don’t decrease with Jesse as opposed to Drai and, as we’ve seen, Jesse scores at solid rates with McDavid – so far. Of course, Drai’s scoring rates do fall without McDavid (as would every player in the world).

    I’m not suggesting that Jesse start October as 1RW, but just providing the info (if I remember correctly).

    2) He needs development time, yes, but the NHL is indeed a development league – almost every player develops their game further at the NHL level. Players are not finished products when they arrive in the NHL. Of course, the player should be actually NHL ready and then develop their NHL game further. Jesse hasn’t proven to be fully NHL ready but I think he is damn close and, frankly, if put in the right situation (consistent 5 on 5 minutes with consistent linemates), he will prove very quickly that he is ready.

    3) Bah – heading back to Europe to play on the big ice and leave the North American culture seems like a poor choice to me given he is still working on matters related to North America – language, culture, ice size, style of game, etc.

    4) Agreed, his development has been very poor but I suggest his agent has had a huge role in that – I think he’s been in the organization’s ear about AHL time, etc. and its done his client a massive disservice.

  107. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    RonnieB,

    Not sure as I don’t follow WPG very closely, but my point was that a guy perceived to be soft and to disappear in the playoffs can go elsewhere and flourish, a la Ebs.

  108. Victoria Oil says:

    Button’s list and Pronman’s mock draft are sending a message to the Oilers (unless Turcotte is available at #8) that the best play is likely to trade down 3-5 spots if you can.

    The differences between 5-13 are very small to anyone without a crystal ball.

  109. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Ben,

    I’d avoid that unless the package was too good to miss. Most scouts have this as 1-2 then 3-8 for the top two tiers, with the cliff being at 8. Unless we see a couple off the board pics between 1-7 there’s too good of a player available to pass taking. In that case, maybe a 8th for 10th+ with Vancouver would make sense, but that all depends on who’s available and what the plus is in the transaction.

  110. godot10 says:

    Victoria Oil:
    Button’s list and Pronman’s mock draft are sending a message to theOilers (unless Turcotte is available at #8) that the best play is likely to trade down 3-5 spots if you can.

    The differences between 5-13 are very small to anyone without a crystal ball.

    I’d rather get the guy I want at #8OV, instead of the leftovers. Scouts are paid to know the difference between #6 and #12.

  111. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: Of course, Drai’s scoring rates do fall without McDavid (as would every player in the world).

    I believe Draisaitl’s scoring rates with RNH are actually higher than with McDavid. I don’t have time to look it up and it might be due to sample size issues, but that’s my recollection.

  112. dustrock says:

    Victoria Oil:
    Button’s list and Pronman’s mock draft are sending a message to theOilers (unless Turcotte is available at #8) that the best play is likely to trade down 3-5 spots if you can.

    The differences between 5-13 are very small to anyone without a crystal ball.

    I agree, but at the same time, all the other teams in that block are likely thinking the same thing. Is there really a prospect (maybe a Caufield?) that a particular team would want enough to trade up?

  113. silasbengtsson says:

    As the many mock drafts seem to point out, trading down to #12 would be a good bet while still adding a talented player (whether that’s Broberg or Tomasino). The Wild seem like a team in enough flux that they might entertain moving up and weaponizing some cap space they have. Something like #8 and Russell for #12 and Pateryn solves a number of issues and maybe could be expanded to include Zucker. Perhaps tossing in Puljujarvi does it; maybe it takes the 2020 1st.

    Either way, that kind of deal would go a long way to addressing a number of issues in a single trade: Russell gone, a short-term replacement with better defending coming in, freeing up cap space and simultaneously using that cap space to add a responsible, prime-aged top-6 winger for Nuge to play with.

    Thoughts? Would the 2020 1st be too much for you? Would Puljujarvi? Do you think it would be too little to catch Minnesota’s eye? Sure they’ve been hunting Kessel and Boeser but they’ve also entertained offers of Frolik/1st (TDD) and Frolik/Bennett for him so they can’t value him THAT much.

  114. dustrock says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Ben,

    I’d avoid that unless the package was too good to miss.Most scouts have this as 1-2 then 3-8 for the top two tiers, with the cliff being at 8.Unless we see a couple off the board pics between 1-7 there’s too good of a player available to pass taking.In that case, maybe a 8th for 10th+ with Vancouver would make sense, but that all depends on who’s available and what the plus is in the transaction.

    We heard about the #3-8 tier, with Blue Bullet Brad suggesting the the drop-off from 8 to 9 was almost as high as from 3-8.

    But I wonder if we’re not seeing movement here and I’m not sure the #3-8 are as set in stone as they were a couple of months ago.

    Just summarizing BBB’s scores for his top players:

    1 Hughes – 110.00
    2 Kakko – 84.42
    3. Byram – 68.38
    *************
    4 Cozens – 51.55
    5 Turcotte – 50.17
    6 Zegras – 46.86
    7 Podkolzin – 44.94
    8 Dach – 42.78
    **************
    9 Krebs – 30.71
    10 Kaliyev -29.57
    11 Boldy – 28.60
    12 York – 26.86
    13 Brink – 24.07
    ***************
    14 Caufield – 19.19
    15 Suzuki – 19.35
    16 Broberg – 19.05
    17 Soderstrom – 18.62
    18 Harley – 18.17
    19 Lavoie – 18.10
    20 Dorofeyev – 16.23

    BBB uses draft rankings and applies the scoring levels of those prospects along with age and league and estimates for value.

    His calculations are explained here for more detail:

    https://bluebulletreport.com/2018/06/20/blue-bullet-2018-nhl-entry-draft-guide/

  115. Nit64 says:

    dustrock: But I wonder if we’re not seeing movement here and I’m not sure the #3-8 are as set in stone as they were a couple of months ago.

    McKenzie’s final later this month will give everyone a final look at the tiers and the separations. Consensus does not give exact draft order but its a good clustering tool.

  116. blainer says:

    jp: The tough thing about Puljujarvi is that his numbers with anyone other than McDavid are actually quite bad.

    Career with:
    Nuge (399min) 1.05 P/60
    Strome (307min) 0.98
    Draisaitl (283min) 1.48
    Letestu/Brodziak/Cave/Malone/Lander (~180min) 0.0

    IMO it looks like JP is either lacking effort or has a problem with his conditioning or both. Really reminds me of Yak quite a bit.

    I still think he has a chance to get it going in the NHL but I think it’s time to move on from him as I also think our top players don’t want to play with him and this alone probably has his confidence in the gutter.

    Package him in a deal that helps us dump Lucic as keeping him will only lessen his value.

    It’s already low but another shitty year and you won’t even get a 4th rounder for him.

  117. Pescador says:

    David: Should have read the whole thread

    Why ?
    As usual I’m missing something

  118. ArmchairGM says:

    silasbengtsson:
    As the many mock drafts seem to point out, trading down to #12 would be a good bet while still adding a talented player (whether that’s Broberg or Tomasino). The Wild seem like a team in enough flux that they might entertain moving up and weaponizing some cap space they have. Something like #8 and Russell for #12 and Pateryn solves a number of issues and maybe could be expanded to include Zucker. Perhaps tossing in Puljujarvi does it; maybe it takes the 2020 1st.

    Either way, that kind of deal would go a long way to addressing a number of issues in a single trade: Russell gone, a short-term replacement with better defending coming in, freeing up cap space and simultaneously using that cap space to add a responsible, prime-aged top-6 winger for Nuge to play with.

    Thoughts? Would the 2020 1st be too much for you? Would Puljujarvi? Do you think it would be too little to catch Minnesota’s eye? Sure they’ve been hunting Kessel and Boeser but they’ve also entertained offers of Frolik/1st (TDD) and Frolik/Bennett for him so they can’t value him THAT much.

    MN fans would do this deal:

    Zucker

    for

    Yamamoto
    Manning or Gagner
    2020 2nd round pick

    Zucker averages about 40 points per season, is 27 and has 4 more years at $5.5M. There’s some risk involved here even though the ask isn’t terrible IMO.

  119. John Chambers says:

    Khaira – Strome – Puljujarvi….

    Should’ve been the plan for the 3rd line this past season. Size, skill, and speed.

    They could’ve contributed 30-40 ES goals (barring injury), forechecked and killed penalties, had they been asked to play a role they were ideally suited for.

  120. David says:

    Button’s list really seems to be heavily influenced by tournaments. That would also jive with his cool attitude toward Bouchard who dominated the OHL while having a meh WJC.

    That’s opposite of my approach. I’ll have to look at his past lists and see if his method has more merit than I think.

  121. OriginalPouzar says:

    dustrock:
    Typical Oilers: let’s pick the guy we hope we can most easily rush to the NHL.

    Never change, Edmonton.

    Except the Oilers haven’t done this – its just one blogger’s thoughts.

    Sorry to pick this pick out but its a pet peeve of mine. Fans, bloggers, MSM speculate on what the organization may or may not do and the organization gets chastised for it (without them ever having done (or not done) it).

  122. David says:

    Pescador: Why ?
    As usual I’m missing something

    I was referring to myself. You beat me to the Ricki rover connection.

  123. OriginalPouzar says:

    LadiesloveSmid:

    Staple him to a GD good centre! Don’t pull him off after a 3 shifts.

    I’ve said it countless times since he was shut down for the season and I read the CBA technicality that has led to him losing his waiver exempt status for next season: the key with Jesse for the up and coming season, given he will be in the NHL, is consistency – consistent 5 on 5 minutes in the top 9 with consistent linemates (with some skill).

    Just roll him out there each and every night without change for at least 35-40 games – give him permission to just play hockey (obviously within the general system but without the fear of mistakes having immediate negative consequences), allow him to make plays, allow him to get comfortable and allow him to have fun.

    Tippett has expressed he will put players in a position to success and maximize their skills – in my opinion, that is simple for Jesse – just let him play with familiarity and consistency.

  124. blainer says:

    Man ya can say what ya want about Button but he sure likes to go outside the Box with his draft rankings.

    I would assume he believes that Turcotte is the one that is getting zoomed.

    I don’t remember a draft with so many different rankings. It will be very interesting to see Bobby Mac’s ranking.

    This is going to be very interesting draft to be sure.

  125. Pescador says:

    David: I was referring to myself. You beat me to the Ricki rover connection.

    Ahh,
    He is an interesting poster to say the least.
    I wish him well, as I believe we have all been touched by cancer
    One way or another

  126. OriginalPouzar says:

    russ99:
    ArmchairGM,

    Also, we saw last season what a mirage training camp production playing vs. AHL rosters looks like.

    We didn’t just see it last year, we’ve seen it year after year after year.

    Training camp is important for various hockey related matters but it is essentially meaningless as regards NHL readiness of young skilled developing prospects.

  127. Jordan says:

    godot10: I’d rather get the guy I want at #8OV, instead of the leftovers.Scouts are paid to know the difference between #6 and #12.

    But, how often does that actually happen? And how much of what happens after draft day is the result of the player, the teams he plays for, and the organization that’s supposed to be supporting development?

    This is a very important topic, because up until now (to my knowledge) there has been little to no public work done on evaluating what happens after draft day and where the player ends up.

    I have been thinking about this a fair bit, and suspect there would be a market for this kind of post-draft evaluation of a player, and linking this up with the existing performance data of players who make the nhl, ahl, SEL, khl, etc…

    It would also be interesting if you started providing grades to organziations, scouts, gms, as well as pundits for their work both on the draft rankings, draft selections and in development for different prospects.

    And, because there is very little in the way of calculations that need to be made, only data scraping for current information that can then be stored for historical records… it should be fairly straight-forwards to set up.

    The biggest issue I see is in how you evaluate certain critical qualitative details, and does that evaluation require a quantitative element:
    – How do you define different levels of players?
    – What qualifies someone as Generational? Elite? 1st/2nd/3rd/4th liner? Replacement? Development/European League?
    – How do we track development year over year?

    If anyone know if Woodguy’s phone is looking for a new project to mess up posts about, let him know I’m in the neighbourhood.

  128. David says:

    Pescador: Ahh,
    He is an interesting poster to say the least.
    I wish him well, as I believe we have all been touched by cancer
    One way or another

    Definitely

  129. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: It wouldn’t be our only scoring line though – Draisaitl + Nuge are wicked together.

    Are they? In their less than 300 minutes in the last 3 seasons together at 5 on 5, they have a negative CF% and GF%.

  130. GMB3 says:

    ArmchairGM: MN fans would do this deal:

    Zucker

    for

    Yamamoto
    Manning or Gagner
    2020 2nd round pick

    Zucker averages about 40 points per season, is 27 and has 4 more years at $5.5M. There’s some risk involved here even though the ask isn’t terrible IMO.

    ArmchairGM: MN fans would do this deal:

    Zucker

    for

    Yamamoto
    Manning or Gagner
    2020 2nd round pick

    Zucker averages about 40 points per season, is 27 and has 4 more years at $5.5M. There’s some risk involved here even though the ask isn’t terrible IMO.

    What risk? Bonafide NHLer for magic beans and a pilon. Not sure how manning or Gagner have the same value either.

  131. David says:

    David:
    Button’s list really seems to be heavily influenced by tournaments. That would also jive with his cool attitude toward Bouchard who dominated the OHL while having a meh WJC.

    That’s opposite of my approach. I’ll have to look at his past lists and see if his method has more merit than I think.

    In the past couple of years there is not as much evidence of Button heavily favouring the U-18WHC so maybe this year is a one off.

  132. dustrock says:

    OriginalPouzar: Except the Oilers haven’t done this – its just one blogger’s thoughts.

    Sorry to pick this pick out but its a pet peeve of mine. Fans, bloggers, MSM speculate on what the organization may or may not do and the organization gets chastised for it (without them ever having done (or not done) it).

    Yeah, we’re speculating on what would be a stupid move by the Oilers, Captain Obvious.

    I realize it hasn’t happened yet because it’s only June 6th.

  133. OriginalPouzar says:

    stephen sheps:

    Apropos of not these players, but one of the things Nuge said in his exit interview (I believe) that resonated with me was the constant line shuffling was getting to him.

    and McDavid had intimated the same prior to the season.

    Of course, Hitch as the worst line blender I’ve ever witnessed – it was unreal what he did with the forward deployment during his short stint.

    I will always cherish his time as the Oilers’ head coach due to whatever he did to take Drai to 3 levels above where he was (please, please, please let that overall game we saw in the last 30 games be the new Drai), but, man, that forward deployment.

  134. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: Are they?In their less than 300 minutes in the last 3 seasons together at 5 on 5, they have a negative CF% and GF%.

    I believe that their scoring rates over the past 3 years are quite high.

  135. ArmchairGM says:

    GMB3:
    What risk? Bonafide NHLer for magic beans and a pilon. Not sure how manning or Gagner have the same value either.

    The contract is a risk. Pretty sure Gagner produced at similar rates last season and he’s generally considered a liability due to earning $3.15M.

  136. ArmchairGM says:

    GMB3: Not sure how manning or Gagner have the same value either.

    Both are considered cap dumps that mitigate Zucker’s cap hit the 1st year – which is when the Oilers need the relief.

  137. Tbags Funhouse says:

    Yeti:
    If Button’s list holds true we could grab Puistola in the second round. Then I’d be super happy and would drink whisky without ice or water just for the hell of it, science be damned.

    I so hope you’re correct, we can finally have our own “Puistola Cutter” home grown!

  138. Munny says:

    LT said…

    If Edmonton grabs the numbers from Button’s March list, Oilers will walk away with Alex Turcotte (No. 8), Phillip Tomasino (No. 38) and Layton Ahac (No. 85). Helluva take.

    If Tomasino is still on the board at 38 I will be over the moon. Blue moon, Harvest moon, Sailor Moon, I don’t care, I will be over it. Hell, Turcotte at 8 too. They’d both be steals.

  139. OriginalPouzar says:

    Alpine:
    Drai pretty much can’t play with anyone not named McDavid or Hall so if he’s being picky about linemates, then maybe he needs to look in the mirror. He had one hot streak in the playoffs and since then he gets outscored heavily without Connor on his line. Even Nuge does better in goal share than Leon.

    If I remember correctly, the issue here hasn’t been GF as Drai produces at first line rates without McDavid (and often with tweener wingers). The issue has been GA and lets not forget the massive uptick we saw in Leon’s 200 foot game after Hitch did whatever he did.

    You aren’t wrong about the goal share, however, if Leon’s 200 foot game remains “fixed”, the results could (should) be massively different.

  140. who says:

    RonnieB: Trade a top pairing D ( especially when you don’t have a replacement in-house ) for a 2nd line winger who disappears in the playoffs ? No thanks.

    Just to be clear, I think they should draft a forward at 8OV.
    But if they are going to draft Broberg, trading for a forward like Ehlers makes a lot of sense. If JP doesn’t pop, I don’t see another forward in the minor league system who can carry the play like Ehlers.
    Also, wouldn’t it be fair to say that Broberg is just as highly rated as Klefbom was in his draft year? In fact, he’s probably rated higher.

  141. OriginalPouzar says:

    russ99:
    ArmchairGM,

    I’d take what LT has and trade Lucic at 50% retained for a winger, trade Benning + for Brown, buy out Sekera, sign/trade for a better #2 RHD option (using Sekera cap savings) that will allow us to eventually trade Larsson, and put Russell on his natural left side third pair as first man back with a young D – assume Jones but also could be Persson. Also, consider moving Gagner if we can get cap relief.

    That could be a playoff team.

    I’m sorry but:

    1) Lucic at 50% retained doesn’t get a positive value winger – Lucic at $3M still has negative value and a sweetener would need to be added

    2) A legit RD, even third pairing, is worth more than a middling bottom 6 winger, which is what Brown is. Benning for Brown is a decrease in value let along adding

    3) Buying out Sekera is just a horrible idea – they shouldn’t be buying out anyone and adding term to bad contracts let along a legit NHL d-man and a good NHL d-man.

  142. OriginalPouzar says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    russ99,

    Rusty is the first guy you trade for cap space.He’s the last guy you want to mentor rookies.Rej is ideally suited to that role, as well as play up the roster as injury cover.

    Fully agree.

    Not to say I am right and anyone else’s opinion is wrong but suggestions of buying out Sekera just boggle my mind.

  143. Yeti says:

    Tbags Funhouse: I so hope you’re correct, we can finally have our own “Puistola Cutter” home grown!

    I do hope you are going to join my ‘Pissed for Puistola’ wagon on draft day. We’ll drink nothing but whisky and salmiakki koskenkorva with not a drop of water in sight!

  144. OriginalPouzar says:

    blainer:
    Package him in a deal that helps us dump Lucic as keeping him will only lessen his value.

    It’s already low but another shitty year and you won’t even get a 4th rounder for him.

    It is not true that keeping him will only lessen his value – its a possibility but there is a fairly obvious other possibility.

    You second point is correct but the key phrase is “another shitty year” and he very well could have the opposite of that.

    I think the delta between his current trade value and the 4th rounder (if he has another shitty year) is dwarfed by the value if he does indeed take a step forward, or even pop. If is so not uncommon for 21 year olds to take material steps forwards – even 22 and 23 year olds.

  145. leadfarmer says:

    Munny:
    LT said…

    If Edmonton grabs the numbers from Button’s March list, Oilers will walk away with Alex Turcotte (No. 8), Phillip Tomasino (No. 38) and Layton Ahac (No. 85). Helluva take.

    If Tomasino is still on the board at 38 I will be over the moon.Blue moon, Harvest moon, Sailor Moon, I don’t care, I will be over it.Hell, Turcotte at 8 too. They’d both be steals.

    That would be a crazy good haul. I would be almost as happy as when Barzal dropped to 16. Hopefully my happiness lasts longer

    I don’t have a problem drafting Broberg at that slot. Like the others he’s got very high ceiling due to physical attributes and I don’t get where the rover talk is coming from, he’s not a liability in his own end. He actually gets dinged a decent amount for not taking more offensive chances
    The question with the player is his offensive upside and whether he will be good enough in the ozone to bat at top line level
    I think this player has a higher floor than the other guys

  146. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: I believe that their scoring rates over the past 3 years are quite high.

    3.09 GF/60 (Leon is 3.11 without Nuge).

    GA is 3.31/60 (higher for both together than apart).

    Less than 300 minutes at 5 on 5 over the three years.

    For this past season, 120 of the most high event minutes:

    GF/60 – 4.05
    GA/60 – 4.56

    I can’t say if those minutes were before or after Hitch fixed Drai’s 200 foot game and shift to shift consistency in the defensive and neutral zones.

  147. OriginalPouzar says:

    who: Just to be clear, I think they should draft a forward at 8OV.
    But if they are going to draft Broberg, trading for a forward like Ehlers makes a lot of sense. If JP doesn’t pop, I don’t see another forward in the minorleague system who can carry the play like Ehlers.
    Also,wouldn’t it be fair to say that Broberg is just as highly rated as Klefbom was in his draft year? In fact, he’s probably rated higher.

    Its clear they need forwards with scoring pedigree, however, I’m not sure how drafting a d-man that won’t play on the team for at least 2 full seasons, and possibly three (and then likely starts with sheltered minutes), leads to the ability to trade the current 1LD (signed to a value contract for the next 4 years).

    I know you mentioned Russell and Sekera as stop gaps in the interim but that that trade would materially decrease the defensive group as a whole.

    We’ve seen the impact of losing Klefbom.

  148. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: 3.09 GF/60 (Leon is 3.11 without Nuge).

    GA is 3.31/60 (higher for both together than apart).

    Less than 300 minutes at 5 on 5 over the three years.

    For this past season, 120 of the most high event minutes:

    GF/60 – 4.05
    GA/60 – 4.56

    I can’t say if those minutes were before or after Hitch fixed Drai’s 200 foot game and shift to shift consistency in the defensive and neutral zones.

    Are you looking at “on ice” or individual?

  149. leadfarmer says:

    I wonder if a team would be tempted to trade up a few spots for retaining a bit on Lucic contract (3team hypothetical)
    I’d be happy if we could draft Broberg and get rid of Lucic while retaining 2 mil or less

  150. JimmyV1965 says:

    RonnieB:
    BornInAGretzkyJersey,

    I think i read somewhere that he played game 6 with a broken leg.
    Edit: He is quoted in the press as saying he suffered a fractured leg when he blocked a shot near the end of Game 5.

    Did he have a broken leg last year also when he had zero goals in 15 games ?

    I wouldn’t trade Klef for Ehlers either, but this is a ridiculous take. Many many players have not scored in the playoffs early in their career and then it changed. Datsyuk says hi.

  151. RonnieB says:

    JimmyV1965: I wouldn’t trade Klef for Ehlers either, but this is a ridiculous take. Many many players have not scored in the playoffs early in their career and then it changed. Datsyuk says hi.

    Maybe we are both trying to use an exception to prove a rule that doesn’t exist.

  152. leadfarmer says:

    I still don’t get how refs swallow their whistles in the playoffs especially third period.
    A call in first game of season should be a call in 3rd period of finals

  153. OriginalPouzar says:

    I assume they just missed it.

  154. Jordan says:

    It’s easy to see it should have been a call in slow motion.

    My first reaction watching it live and then at speed again was that bozak was playing the puck and Acciari fell because he had stopped moving his feet.

    The refs likely saw it but didn’t see it as a penalty too.

    They might feel differently looking at it in slow motion, but that’s not where most of the game is played or called. Tough break for Boston.

  155. Gerta Rauss says:

    The joint will be jumpin’ in St Loo on Sunday

    Go Blues..!

  156. jp says:

    ArmchairGM: MN fans would do this deal:

    Zucker

    for

    Yamamoto
    Manning or Gagner
    2020 2nd round pick

    Zucker averages about 40 points per season, is 27 and has 4 more years at $5.5M. There’s some risk involved here even though the ask isn’t terrible IMO.

    ArmchairGM: The contract is a risk. Pretty sure Gagner produced at similar rates last season and he’s generally considered a liability due to earning $3.15M.

    I don’t agree the Zucker deal (edit: contract) is a risk. As you say, he’s 27 and signed for 4 more years. He’ll turn 31 for just the last 3 months of the deal, that’s basically all prime years.

    Over the past 3 seasons he’s averaged 25G, 26A, 51PTS, +11. He’s also been among the top 4 Wild players over that span in every single one of CF%, FF%, SF%, GF%, xGF%, SCF%, HDSCF% while getting negative OZ starts. Also plays pretty tough competition and his DFF% has been better than 55% for each of the last 3 years.

    This is a very good player. IMO that deal would be a huge win for the Oilers. I don’t expect it would be a competitive offer from the Wild’s POV, and I don’t know why they would need to take on Gagner’s contract in addition.

  157. Reja says:

    leadfarmer:
    I still don’t get how refs swallow their whistles in the playoffs especially third period.
    A call in first game of season should be a call in 3rd period of finals

    They say the Stanley cup is the hardest to win out of all the sports for a reason that’s when the men show what it takes to win. Don’t fret fighting, hitting and passion will be striped from the game soon enough.

  158. Munny says:

    jp,

    There is nothing wrong with kicking the tires on Zucker. A GM has to find out the ask for any player that is possibly available and fills a hole. Same with Kadri, Burakowsky, Miller, Cirelli, and all the others. And one never knows what a cap-desperate dance partner might do. Could be full Elaine Bennis.

  159. Munny says:

    Jordan,

    Rask said pretty much the same post-game. “Happened really fast.” Missed calls tend to even up over the course of a series… if you’re not the Oilers playing the Dinks, I mean Ducks.

  160. who says:

    OriginalPouzar: Its clear they need forwards with scoring pedigree, however, I’m not sure how drafting a d-man that won’t play on the team for at least 2 full seasons, and possibly three (and then likely starts with sheltered minutes), leads to the ability to trade the current 1LD (signed to a value contract for the next 4 years).

    I know you mentioned Russell and Sekera as stop gaps in the interim but that that trade would materially decrease the defensive group as a whole.

    We’ve seen the impact of losing Klefbom.

    You make some good points.
    Klefbom is our best dman on a value contract for 4 more years. All true. But hear me out.
    Is Klefbom that much better than Nurse, or a healthy Sekera? Is he really a stud dman?
    My reasoning is talent in on defense will equal talent out. It’s just that Broberg may take 4 or 5 years to get to Klefboms level . In the meantime you have Sekera and Russell to get through the next 2 years, and hopefully Jones and Samarukov and maybe Lagesson to take it from there. It’s interesting that the concerns regarding Broberg still show up in Klefboms game from time to time. Hockey IQ, vision, offensive and defensive insincts. In some ways they are very much alike.
    The kicker here is Ehlers. People who are longing for Taylor Hall should take a long look at this guy. Very similar skill sets and playing styles. He is also signed for the next 6 years at 6AAV. I think that will be a value contract as well. I’d rather pay him 6 million a year than pay Connelly or Nyquist 4 or 5 million.
    Bottom line for me is this;
    If the Oilers choose a dman with 8OV they need to find another way to add an impact forward. This seems like a good bet to me.

  161. JimmyV1965 says:

    who: You make some good points.
    Klefbom is our best dman on a value contract for 4 more years. All true. But hear me out.
    Is Klefbom that much better than Nurse, or a healthy Sekera? Is he really a stud dman?
    My reasoning is talent in on defense will equal talent out. It’s just that Broberg may take 4 or 5 years to get to Klefboms level . In the meantime you have Sekera and Russell to get through the next 2 years, and hopefully Jones and Samarukov and maybe Lagesson to take it from there. It’s interesting that the concerns regarding Broberg still show up in Klefboms game from time to time. Hockey IQ, vision, offensive and defensiveinsincts. In some ways they are very much alike.
    The kicker here is Ehlers. People who are longing for Taylor Hall should take a long look at this guy. Very similar skill sets and playing styles. He is also signed for the next 6 years at 6AAV. I think that will be a value contract as well. I’d rather pay him 6 million a year than pay Connelly or Nyquist 4 or 5 million.
    Bottom line for me is this;
    If the Oilers choose a dman with 8OV they need to find another way to add an impact forward.This seems like a good bet to me.

    I would love to have Ehlers and I would trade the 8OV to do it. I’m not trading Klef to do it. You’re digging a hole to fill another hole.

  162. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp:
    I don’t agree the Zucker deal (edit: contract) is a risk. As you say, he’s 27 and signed for 4 more years. He’ll turn 31 for just the last 3 months of the deal, that’s basically all prime years.

    Over the past 3 seasons he’s averaged 25G, 26A, 51PTS, +11. He’s also been among the top 4 Wild players over that span in every single one of CF%, FF%, SF%, GF%, xGF%, SCF%, HDSCF% while getting negative OZ starts. Also plays pretty tough competition and his DFF% has been better than 55% for each of the last 3 years.

    This is a very good player. IMO that deal would be a huge win for the Oilers. I don’t expect it would be a competitive offer from the Wild’s POV, and I don’t know why they would need to take on Gagner’s contract in addition.

    It may be correct to say he’s averaged 51 points but is it being honest? Is that number not scewed by his one 64 point year which is 17 points more than he’s managed in any other year? It seems that year may be the aberration points wise as he seems to be a 42-27 point player other than the one year.

    To be clear, this post isn’t even against the acquisition of Zucker but simply providing the additional context on the traditional box cars as I’m not sure counting on 50 plus points as his norm is correct.

    It seems his fancies trump his general production.

  163. OriginalPouzar says:

    who: You make some good points.
    Klefbom is our best dman on a value contract for 4 more years. All true. But hear me out.
    Is Klefbom that much better than Nurse, or a healthy Sekera? Is he really a stud dman?
    My reasoning is talent in on defense will equal talent out. It’s just that Broberg may take 4 or 5 years to get to Klefboms level . In the meantime you have Sekera and Russell to get through the next 2 years, and hopefully Jones and Samarukov and maybe Lagesson to take it from there. It’s interesting that the concerns regarding Broberg still show up in Klefboms game from time to time. Hockey IQ, vision, offensive and defensiveinsincts. In some ways they are very much alike.
    The kicker here is Ehlers. People who are longing for Taylor Hall should take a long look at this guy. Very similar skill sets and playing styles. He is also signed for the next 6 years at 6AAV. I think that will be a value contract as well. I’d rather pay him 6 million a year than pay Connelly or Nyquist 4 or 5 million.
    Bottom line for me is this;
    If the Oilers choose a dman with 8OV they need to find another way to add an impact forward.This seems like a good bet to me.

    I guess my point is that drafting Broberg doesn’t really allow them to trade Klefbom at this point in time any more than drafting any other player because drafting Broberg has not effect on the NHL lineup for at least 2 if not 3 or more years.

    If your position is that there is adequate cover to trade Klefbom for a forward, so be it, I’m just positing that drafting Broberg doesn’t really provide any sort of cover for years.

    As far as having such cover, one could make the argument that Nurse provides cover for Klefbom and that Sekera provides cover for Nurse, and Jones or Lagesson provide cover for Sekera but it would be a downgrade because (a) everyone if moved up a spot, (b) Jones/Lagesson are still unproven and (c) all injury cover is lost.

    My position is to wait until we are sure of the progression of at least one of the prospects proving NHL readiness and maybe even top 4 readiness prior to trading one of the core defenders (Nurse, Klefbom, Larsson) – this may be 6 months, a year, two year.

  164. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV1965: I would love to have Ehlers and I would trade the 8OV to do it. I’m not trading Klef to do it. You’re digging a hole to fill another hole.

    and trading the 8th also requires a corresponding move to open up the cap space for the additional $6M.

  165. JimmyV1965 says:

    OriginalPouzar: and trading the 8th also requires a corresponding move to open up the cap space for the additional $6M.

    If the salary cap goes up $3 mill or even $2 mill you don’t exactly need to be Einstein to figure out a way to make it work. If the cap goes up $3 mill and you replace Reider with Ehlers there’s $5 mill.

  166. Professor Q says:

    Everyone forgets about the Expansion Draft, too, with all these draft pick and prospect oustings.

  167. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: It may be correct to say he’s averaged 51 points but is it being honest?Is that number not scewed by his one 64 point year which is 17 points more than he’s managed in any other year? It seems that year may be the aberration points wise as he seems to be a 42-27 point player other than the one year.

    To be clear, this post isn’t even against the acquisition of Zucker but simply providing the additional context on the traditional box cars as I’m not sure counting on 50 plus points as his norm is correct.

    It seems his fancies trump his general production.

    I was responding to a post that said Zucker “averages about 40 points per year” by providing his actual average (51 points) is over the last 3 years. The numbers by year are 47, 64 and 42. 47 is pretty close to 50. If you want to discount his best season and say he’s a 42-47 point player that’s fine, though I’m not sure it’s more honest or accurate. Personally I’d project him for ‘about’ 50 points (45-55) based on his own recent past.

  168. ArmchairGM says:

    JimmyV1965: If the salary cap goes up $3 mill or even $2 mill you don’t exactly need to be Einstein to figure out a way to make it work. If the cap goes up $3 mill and you replace Reider with Ehlers there’s $5 mill.

    It’s going up $3.5M to $83M as far as I know.

  169. ArmchairGM says:

    jp: I was responding to a post that said Zucker “averages about 40 points per year” by providing his actual average (51 points) is over the last 3 years. The numbers by year are 47, 64 and 42. 47 is pretty close to 50. If you want to discount his best season and say he’s a 42-47 point player that’s fine, though I’m not sure it’s more honest or accurate. Personally I’d project him for ‘about’ 50 points (45-55) based on his own recent past.

    He has played 5 seasons in the NHL and a couple of part seasons. If you look at the 5 he has averaged about 40 points each year.

  170. SwedishPoster says:

    A very doubtful rumour out of Sweden places finnish D Kristian Näkyvä in Edmonton, he’s played the last few seasons in the SHL. Smallish two way D but leaning more towards the offensive side, good skater and puckmover. He’s a good SHL D but the rumour doesn’t really make sense to me as he’s 28 year old who’s been good but not amazing in the SHL. The source is kinda dodgy so take it with a bucket of salt.
    But maybe Holland is trolling media by adding players with names that are impossible to pronounce for english speakers without butchering.

  171. jp says:

    ArmchairGM: He has played 5 seasons in the NHL and a couple of part seasons.If you look at the 5 he has averaged about 40 points each year.

    IMO his more recent performance should be weighted, but as you wish.

  172. Lowetide says:

    For The Athletic: How will Ken Holland build around Connor McDavid?

    https://theathletic.com/1015187/2019/06/07/lowetide-how-will-ken-holland-build-around-connor-mcdavid/

  173. Pouzar says:

    If I’m Holland I am in Chevy’s ear all day about how the Oil have the answer to their Right D problems!

    I will continue to dream of a Perrault for Russell swap NMCs be damned!

    Also lots of parts to consider a move for Roslovic as well. There is your 3rd line RC and top 6 winger.

  174. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV1965: If the salary cap goes up $3 mill or even $2 mill you don’t exactly need to be Einstein to figure out a way to make it work. If the cap goes up $3 mill and you replace Reider with Ehlers there’s $5 mill.

    It doesn’t quite work that way.

    Current cap space is calculated without reference to any of the soon to be UFAs or RFAs

    The Oilers have apx $9.5M of cap space with the need to sign 5 players.

    One of those players will be a 1B goalie which will likely cost apx $2.5M – $3M leaving four players and apx $6.5M of cap space.

    Two of those players will be Jesse and Khaira for apx $2.5M combined leaving about $4M of cap space for 2 players.

    There is no cap space to make a material acquisition without disposing of cap space.

    I would make reference to not being a genius to figure this out but figure I personally don’t need to be a pretentious dink this morning.

  175. russ99 says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Where are we getting the cap space to add?

    I assume we’ll need to add to get back a good player for Lucic, maybe not for an average Tippett-style player.

    The shot for numbers see Benning way better than I do, and I see him as a liabilty on our zone, especially if he’s last guy back. If you think otherwise, we’ll have to disagree, plus he’s Chia’s guy, and the new GM has no attachment to how Chia’s 94’s and NCAA pickups do.

    Sekera is 33 tomorrow (skating decline age) after a major surgery on each leg, can’t understand how anyone doesn’t see that this is a risky player to keep at $5.5 for two more years, and that’s too much cap for third pair. Kinda hard to mentor the kids if he can’t stay or the ice or loses more wheels.

    Preferably he’d be traded, but the return can’t be too good, see above, and we’d need to take cap back. Two years left is the prime buyout timing, see the article in The Athletic. We’d save $3M each of the next two years.

    Not to mention Russell will be a good trade chip for cap space rich, cash poor teams at the deadline due to his lesser salary in the last year of his contract, and if we keep him until next summer, his trade protection degrades further. Also, Russell can still skate, and both shot metrics and boxcars say he can perform better on his natural left side. Not to mention he likely will play less reckless in Tippett’s systems where defense is played as a 5-man unit. He’s out within a year at the latest but we should be smart about when we move him. If the kids come up like gangbusters, move him in December.

  176. OilSafety says:

    Lets bring in fellow fin Haula as 3C and put Jesse on his wing. Find a veteran proven player with tread on the tires for the left side.

  177. JimmyV1965 says:

    OriginalPouzar: It doesn’t quite work that way.

    Current cap space is calculated without reference to any of the soon to be UFAs or RFAs

    The Oilers have apx $9.5M of cap space with the need to sign 5 players.

    One of those players will be a 1B goalie which will likely cost apx $2.5M – $3M leaving four players and apx $6.5M of cap space.

    Two of those players will be Jesse and Khaira for apx $2.5M combined leaving about $4M of cap space for 2 players.

    There is no cap space to make a material acquisition without disposing of cap space.

    I would make reference to not being a genius to figure this out but figure I personally don’t need to be a pretentious dink this morning.

    If you can’t find cap space for a player like Ehlers on a very nice $6 mill deal because you need to make room for JP and JK, maybe you shouldn’t be GM. All these things are doable and you know that. Using the cap space argument is a convenient crutch to argue with. You don’t want to trade the 8OV and that’s fine.

  178. GMB3 says:

    ArmchairGM: The contract is a risk. Pretty sure Gagner produced at similar rates last season and he’s generally considered a liability due to earning $3.15M.

    Lol

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